Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II (SpringerBriefs in Population Studies) 9811666083, 9789811666087

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SPRINGER BRIEFS IN POPULATION STUDIES POPULATION STUDIES OF JAPAN

Fumie Kumagai

Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II 123

SpringerBriefs in Population Studies

Population Studies of Japan Editor-in-Chief Toshihiko Hara, Professor Emeritus, Sapporo City University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan Series Editors Shinji Anzo, Tokyo, Japan Hisakazu Kato, Tokyo, Japan Noriko Tsuya, Tokyo, Japan Toru Suzuki, Chiba, Japan Kohei Wada, Tokyo, Japan Hisashi Inaba, Tokyo, Japan Minato Nakazawa, Kobe, Japan Jim Raymo, New Jersey, USA Ryuichi Kaneko, Tokyo, Japan Satomi Kurosu, Chiba, Japan Reiko Hayashi, Tokyo, Japan Hiroshi Kojima, Tokyo, Japan Takashi Inoue, Tokyo, Japan

The world population is expected to expand by 39.4% to 9.6 billion in 2060 (UN World Population Prospects, revised 2010). Meanwhile, Japan is expected to see its population contract by nearly one third to 86.7 million, and its proportion of the elderly (65 years of age and over) will account for no less than 39.9% (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in Japan, Population Projections for Japan 2012). Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional phase and will be the fastest-shrinking country in the world, followed by former Eastern bloc nations, leading other Asian countries that are experiencing drastic changes. A declining population that is rapidly aging impacts a country’s economic growth, labor market, pensions, taxation, health care, and housing. The social structure and geographical distribution in the country will drastically change, and short-term as well as long-term solutions for economic and social consequences of this trend will be required. This series aims to draw attention to Japan’s entering the post-demographic transition phase and to present cutting-edge research in Japanese population studies. It will include compact monographs under the editorial supervision of the Population Association of Japan (PAJ). The PAJ was established in 1948 and organizes researchers with a wide range of interests in population studies of Japan. The major fields are (1) population structure and aging; (2) migration, urbanization, and distribution; (3) fertility; (4) mortality and morbidity; (5) nuptiality, family, and households; (6) labor force and unemployment; (7) population projection and population policy (including family planning); and (8) historical demography. Since 1978, the PAJ has been publishing the academic journal Jinkogaku Kenkyu (The Journal of Population Studies), in which most of the articles are written in Japanese. Thus, the scope of this series spans the entire field of population issues in Japan, impacts on socioeconomic change, and implications for policy measures. It includes population aging, fertility and family formation, household structures, population health, mortality, human geography and regional population, and comparative studies with other countries. This series will be of great interest to a wide range of researchers in other countries confronting a post-demographic transition stage, demographers, population geographers, sociologists, economists, political scientists, health researchers, and practitioners across a broad spectrum of social sciences.

More information about this subseries at https://link.springer.com/bookseries/13101

Fumie Kumagai

Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II

Fumie Kumagai Kyorin University Mitaka, Tokyo, Japan

ISSN 2211-3215 ISSN 2211-3223 (electronic) SpringerBriefs in Population Studies ISSN 2198-2724 ISSN 2198-2732 (electronic) Population Studies of Japan ISBN 978-981-16-6608-7 ISBN 978-981-16-6609-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6609-4 © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Preface

More than four decades have passed since I became interested in regional variations of my native country, Japan. In fact, my academic search for regional variations of Japan seems to have derived from an extended stay of 15 years in the United States, living in nine different states as a graduate student, college professor, and sociology researcher. I realized that the United States is truly diverse in her population and socio-cultural outlook, even within the same state. For example, Upstate New York and Downstate New York present themselves as if they are totally different worlds, or San Francisco and Los Angeles seem to represent the Janus-faced realities of California State. This realization of the diverse nature of the United States made me aware of viewing my own country with the objectivity gained from valuable comparative insight. Growing up in the suburbs of Tokyo, I knew only about Tokyo, and whenever I was asked things about Japan, I started to wonder if my knowledge of Japan was appropriate or not. Soon after looking at Japan from the outside, I realized that Japan is in fact diverse in her characteristics. A tiny island nation, much smaller than the State of California, is a long-stretched country, extending from the northern tip of the city of Wakkanai, located at about the same latitude as that of the United States–Canada border, to the islands of Okinawa, roughly equal to the southern tip of Florida. That realization made me notice how little knowledge I possessed about my own country. Following my extended stay overseas, I lived in rural Niigata for three years from 1984-87 in the town of Yamato in Minami-Uonuma County, Niigata Prefecture (the municipality now known as the city of Minami-Uonuma). I was a Professor of sociology at the Graduate School of International Relations, International University of Japan. It was the first time I lived outside Tokyo, and Yamato-machi displayed totally different scenes from what I knew about Japan. It was truly the snow country, “Coming out of the long tunnel I saw snow country” as Yasunari Kawabata wrote at the beginning of his novel, Yukiguni (The Snow Country). Kawabata was the first Japanese writer to win the Nobel Prize for Literature. My experiences in Yamato strengthened the knowledge of diversity in Japan. Niigata Prefecture is divided not only by the ancient Echigo Province and Sado Province, but also by Jyoetsu, Chuetsu, v

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and Kaetsu within Echigo Province, and there exist clear regional variations from one area to the other even within the same Niigata Prefecture. By that time, I strongly believed that the Japanese population should not be discussed by “average” figures, but should highlight regional variations. For this reason, I started to discuss families and demography in Japan in such areas as fertility decline and population aging, household structures, marriage, and divorce with special attention to regional variations. However, obtaining the open small area data by the municipal level was hardly heard of about the time I lived in Yamatomachi, Niigata Prefecture. Thus, my academic research on the regional variations of Japanese demography and the family was mostly confined to the prefectural level of analyses. Up to the point stated above, the data being analyzed were based on the prefecture. In other words, it was the discussion of ken-min-sei (prefectural stereotypes, or preconceived notions about prefectures) without paying attention to regional variations within the same prefecture. In many parts of Japan, however, there are cases where the temperament, lifestyle, and customs vary greatly within the same prefecture, from east to west, north, and south. This recognition of diverse variations within a single prefecture prompted me to realize the need for a municipal level of analyses. This is derived from the fact that the current 47 prefectures in Japan are essentially based on the Bakuhan-taisei (feudal system of the shogunate and domains of the Edo period) comprised of 302 Han dynasties. Furthermore, it comes from the ancient system of Japanese Goki-Shichido (Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits of Ancient Japan) under the Ritsuryo system that dates back to the era of the decree of 710. For this reason, there are cases where the history, ethos, climate, humanity, customs, lifestyle, dialect, and temperament of the same prefecture are all different. As a result, there are many cases where characteristics vary among regions within the same prefecture. Therefore, I developed a strong desire to carry out analyses on population decline based on data by the municipality. Fortunately, I was allowed to use statistical software such as G-Census and EvaCva, and was able to analyze the small area statistical open data compiled by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. With these small area open data at hand, my intention to analyze Japan’s depopulating society from the standpoint of the regional power of municipalities has been progressing. Regrettably, however, discussion on the Goki-Shichido and Provinces with relation to regional variations within the same prefecture has been somewhat premature, and it is hoped to become a central issue in this volume of Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II. The current book is truly unique in three aspects. First, the theoretical framework shows originality. In other words, it has been attempted to incorporate cultural and municipal characteristics into demographic analysis is interesting in the case of Japan highlighting historical factors as an explanation leading to distinct characters of different municipalities, and hence different “municipal power.” Second, the methodology is relatively creative, especially using small area data, i.e., various socio-demographic data of municipal level, to capture information at the individual municipal level. It is remarkable to have access to such small area open data of Japan.

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Thus, the method has the potential to attract more interest among scholars to utilize open data in their research. Third, the case of Japan provides a good lesson for other nations facing the same problem of shrinking population, and will encourage these nations to look into regional characteristics that may be utilized for revitalization. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and later in China, for example, will be facing the same problems of population aging and regional shrinkage. Thus, I am certain that Japan’s experience as discussed in this book will be useful and provides comparative knowledge. Nevertheless, there are many other prefectures in Japan not discussed in the present and the previous studies of the current author where regional variations within the same prefectures are outstanding. Studying them, i.e., not explored in the current and the previous studies, would be the next agenda of my study. At the same time, I feel the level of understanding of the true state of shrinking Japan among people overseas remains somewhat distorted. I feel, however, that we cannot blame people abroad for this problem. Instead, it is due in part to the reluctance of the Japanese people to reveal their true identity, and also, in part, to the lack of realization among the Japanese themselves that the Japanese population does indeed exhibit regional variations. My hope, therefore, is to take part in letting the world know the true state of shrinking Japan from the municipal power perspective. Sincere acknowledgment is extended to various individuals and institutions. Without their cooperation and support, this project could not have been accomplished. It is next to impossible to name them all, but let me list a few. I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to Prof. Toshihiko Hara, a renowned scholar of demography, and the Editor-in-Chief of the Springer Briefs in Population Studies: Population Studies of Japan, who guided and encouraged me to pursue this project by providing me with various references, advice, and critical reviewed comments on the earlier version of this manuscript. At first, critical comments were difficult to accept, but they were truly constructive and professional which lead to the completion of this project. Mr. Karthikeyan Durairaj, Project Coordinator-Book of Springer Nature, was very resourceful and meticulous during the entire production process of this project by providing me with the most conscientious assistances beyond his responsibilities. Last but not least, I would like to express my hearty appreciation to Ms. Maryann Gorman for her copy-editing work of this manuscript. To a non-native speaker of English writing an academic book manuscript in English requires total dedication and many sacrifices. I am fortunate, however, that Maryann Gorman has agreed to assist me in editing and rewriting to bring the manuscript into the publishable form. All of these support and encouragements lead to the completion of this project. Fumie Kumagai Professor Emeritus Kyorin University Tokyo, Japan [email protected]

Prologue-Introducing This Volume II

This book has studied the issue of shrinking Japan along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando based on the theoretical framework of the Goki-Shichido (Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits of Ancient Japan) and the Baku-Han system. This book provides an insightful and sociological study of shrinking Japanese population through a regional variation perspective as it varies significantly by the municipality, even within the same prefecture. Using demographic data on municipal levels, the book identifies the municipal power unique to each municipality which mobilizes shrinking to sustainable Japan. The study identifies the principal explanatory factors based on the small area data of e-Stat through GPS statistical software tools such as G-census and EvaCva, within a historical perspective. The theoretical framework of this study, i.e., the reason for regional variations in Japan is the Goki-Shichido. This historical knowledge helps in understanding the significance of the regional cultural heritage which remains in each municipality today. This book pays special attention to municipal variations within the same prefecture, presenting a completely unique approach from what have been pursued by other researchers. The present study analyzed shrinking Japan through a regional variation perspective on small municipal levels, with demographic variables, social indicators, and historical identities. It is hoped, therefore, that this book will offer suggestions for effective regional policies to revitalize a shrinking Japan to a sustainable one. This book studies five present-day prefectures for detailed analyses based on the Goki-Shichido framework for impacts of regional variations of population decline in Japan. They are Niigata Prefecture, made up of the formerly named Echigo and Sado provinces. Ishikawa Prefecture, formed by the ancient Kaga and Noto provinces, Fukui Prefecture, based on the previous Wakasa and Echizen provinces of the Hokurikudo, Nagano Prefecture, still called Shinano Province today and commonly divided into four Areas and 10 Regions, and Gifu Prefecture, composed of ancient Mino and Hida provinces of the Tosando as examples for impacts of municipal power on regional variations of shrinking Japan. By presenting unique analyses of regional variations on small municipal levels, with demographic variables, social indicators, and historical identities this book offers suggestions for effective regional policy for revitalizes shrinking Japan to a sustainable one. ix

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Prologue-Introducing This Volume II

However, due to the limitation of the number of pages set forth for Springer Briefs in Population Studies: Population Studies of Japan, for which the current publication is a part, it has become necessary to divide the book into two volumes, namely Volume I and Volume II. Because of this limitation, the current Volume II consists of four chapters They are Chap. 1: Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo; Chap. 2: Nagano Prefecture in the Tosando; Chap. 3: Gifu Prefecture in the Tosando, and Chap. 4: Epilogue: The Future of Shrinking Japan. The remaining two prefectures, i.e., Niigata and Ishikawa prefectures in the Hokurikudo area have been discussed in the Volume I of this book. Now that we understand the structure of this book, let us grasp the summary of four chapters dealt in the current Volume II. Chapter 1 observes Fukui Prefecture today which is based on the earlier Wakasa and Echizen provinces of the Hokurikudo. In it there are 17 municipalities today, divided into two regions. They are the northern part of the Reihoku region with 11 municipalities, equivalent to the ancient Echizen Province, and the southern part of the Reinan region, with six municipalities, roughly equivalent to Wakasa Province of earlier times. We will examine differences in the municipal power in these two regions. Moreover, two municipalities will be studied extensively. They are Sabaeshi and Ikeda-cho both located in the same region of Reihoku. According to the projected population increase rate for 2045 Sabae-shi (−6.4%) is the highest, while Ikeda-cho (−56.9%) is the lowest in Fukui Prefecture. Ikeda-cho may likely learn from the municipal power of Sabae-shi and turn into a sustainable municipality. Chapter 2 analyzes Nagano Prefecture of the former Shinano Province along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido. Nagano Prefecture, being composed of 77 municipalities is still called Shinano even today. The prefecture is commonly divided into four areas-Hokushin, Toshin, Chushin, and Nanshin. The sociocultural characteristics of each municipality vary significantly from one municipality to the other. The average rate for the projected population increase of Nagano Prefecture in 2045 is −23.1%, with the highest of Miyota-machi (−0.6%) of the Toshin area, and the lowest, Tenryumura (−72.2%) of the Nanshin area. Tenryu-mura is on the verge of extinction, and may learn from the municipal power of Miyota-machi for its revitalization. Chapter 3 considers Gifu Prefecture, composed of the ancient Mino and Hida provinces of the Tosando. Today, Gifu Prefecture has 42 municipalities in five regions: Gifu (9 municipalities), Seino (11 municipalities), Chuno (13 municipalities), Tono (5 municipalities), and Hida (4 municipalities). The average rate for the projected population increases for 2045 in Gifu Prefecture is −23.4%, with the highest being Mizuho-shi (+2.3%) of the Gifu region, and the lowest, Shirakawacho (−59.0%) of the Chuno region. We will examine provincial differences in the municipal power and population increase rates in Gifu Prefecture. Chapter 4, the last chapter, acts as the epilogue of this book. In the era of the coronavirus pandemic, three issues relating to the shrinking Japan will be discussed. First in discussing “shrinking Japan in the era of coronavirus pandemic,” we will elaborate three issues, namely the accelerated decline in the number of births, shrinking the child population under the age of 15, and the issue of the 2025 problem in demography. The second issue we will discuss is the “new normal lifestyle,” followed by the third issue on “from shrinking to sustainable Japan.” In the wake of the COVID-19,

Prologue-Introducing This Volume II

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we are obliged to practice the new normal lifestyle, and consequently there emerged a growing interest in rural remote communities. Now is the time to ask how to confront the shrinking Japan with the “municipal power” to “revitalize” disappearing municipalities to create sustainable Japan. Our suggestion to create exchange and related populations would hopefully be the answer to this difficult task. Such efforts will alter Japan from a shrinking to a sustainable society. With a brief description on of the structure of this book, it is hoped that the central theme of the book has become clear now. That is, by identifying both the positive and the negative municipal power it is possible to revitalize a shrinking Japan into a sustainable one. Having said that let us now begin our journey of Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II. Fumie Kumagai

Contents

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations: Echizen vs. Wakasa Provinces . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 The Outlook of Fukui Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 A Brief History of Fukui Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Population of Fukui Prefecture Today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Population Changes in Fukui Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2 Demographic Changes in Fukui Prefecture by Municipality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power: Fukui Prefecture, Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 Population Changes by Age Group: Fukui Prefecture, Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5.1 Population Changes by Age Group in Fukui Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5.2 A Brief History of and Population Changes in Sabae-shi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5.3 A Brief History and Population Changes in Eiheiji-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 Radar Chart of Fukui Prefecture: Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 Municipal Power of Ikeda-cho of Reinan Region in Wakasa Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7.1 An Overview of Ikeda-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7.2 A Brief History of Ikeda-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7.3 Population Changes in Ikeda-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7.4 Municipal Power of Ikeda-cho: Kibo no Machi Project—Abandoned Mountains to Adventure Forest . . . . . 1.7.5 Unresolved Issues of Ikeda-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations: Shinano Province, Four Regions and Ten Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 The Outlook of Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Four Regions and Ten Areas of Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Hokushin Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Nagano Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Ueda Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.4 Saku Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.5 Kita Alps Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.6 Matsumoto Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.7 Kiso Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.8 Suwa Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.9 Kamiina Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.10 Minami Shinshu Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Brief History of Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Population of Nagano Prefecture Today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 The Total Population of Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.2 Population by Municipality in Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . 2.4.3 Birth, Total Fertility Rates, Marriage, and Divorce . . . . . . . 2.4.4 Older Adult Population and Living Alone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.5 Foreign Residents in Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.6 Immigration to Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.7 Households in Nagano Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power: Nagano Prefecture, Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 Population Changes by Age Group: Nagano Prefecture, Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 Radar Chart of Nagano Prefecture: Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 Municipal Power of Tenryu-mura of the Southern Shinshu Area in the Nanshin Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8.1 The Outlook of Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8.2 A Brief History of Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8.3 Population Changes in Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8.4 Municipal Power of Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8.5 Unresolved Issues of Tenryu-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Gifu Prefecture in the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations: Mino vs. Hida Provinces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 The Outlook and Areas of Gifu Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.1 The Outlook of Gifu Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Contents

3.1.2 Areas of Gifu Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 A Brief History of Gifu Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Population of Gifu Prefecture Today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Population Changes in Gifu Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Demographic Variations in Gifu Prefecture by Municipality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power: Gifu Prefecture, Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 Population Changes by Age Group: Gifu Prefecture, Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.1 Population Changes by Age Group in Gifu Prefecture . . . . 3.5.2 A Brief History and Population Changes in Mizuho-shi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.3 A Brief History and Population Changes in Minokamo-shi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 Radar Chart of Gifu Prefecture: Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 Municipal Power of Shirakawa-cho of Chuno Area in Mino Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7.1 An Overview of Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7.2 A Brief History of Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7.3 Population Changes in Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7.4 Municipal Power of Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7.5 Unresolved Issues of Shirakawa-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Epilogue: The Future of Shrinking Japan: What Can Be Done to Create a Sustainable Japan from a Shrinking Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Shrinking Japan in the Era of Coronavirus Pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Declining Number of Births Accelerated under the Coronavirus Pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 The Shrinking Child Population under the Age of 15 . . . . . 4.1.3 The Issue of the 2025 Problem in Demography . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 The New Normal Lifestyle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Conclusion: From Shrinking to Sustainable Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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74 77 77 79 81 83 85 85 85 86 87 90 91 93 97 98 98 99 99 100 101 102 103

Chapter 1

Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations: Echizen vs. Wakasa Provinces

Abstract Of all the 47 prefectures, the projected population increase rate of Fukui Prefecture in 2045 ranks 23rd (−21.9%), about the middle from the top of all the 47 prefectures, as opposed to the national average (−16.3). However, when we look at its regional variations among 17 municipalities within Fukui Prefecture, we realize that there are a wide range of variations within Fukui Prefecture itself. Furthermore, it is amazing to notice that municipalities of two extremes—the highest, Sabae-shi (−6.4%), and the lowest, Ikeda-cho (−56.9%)—are located adjacent to each other in the same Tannan area of the Reihoku district of ancient Echizen Province. Regional variations in the sustainable population in Fukui Prefecture seem not so much affected by the provincial difference along the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido. This is, perhaps, due to the fact that no influential clan family or domain existed to control either Echizen and/or Wakasa provinces, among the 11 domains in these two provinces. Thus, when the Abolition of the Feudal Clan was enforced in 1874, these 11 domains were merged and dissolved several times to finally form the presentday Fukui Prefecture in 1884. The annual population increase study of 2020 reports that, of the total 17 municipalities in Fukui Prefecture, Sabae-shi had the greatest total population increase (−0.11%). However, it is interesting to note that Ikeda-cho has the highest annual child population increase (0.00%) in Fukui Prefecture. In analyzing measures that Ikeda-cho has taken recently, we recognize that the negative municipal power of the abandoned forest in the town has been used to create the Kibo no Machi Project, changing the once-abandoned mountains into an adventure forest. The impact of the successful project has increased both the exchange and related populations, and hopefully the resident population in the near future. Keywords Fukui Prefecture · Echizen Province · Wakasa Province · Reihoku district · Reinan district · Sabae-shi · Eiheiji-cho · Ikeda-cho · Manufacturing town of Sabae-shi · Eiheiji Temple and the Soto sect of zen · Kibo no Machi Project of Ikeda-cho · Circulation economy · Recycling agriculture · Exchange population · Related population · Resident population · UIJ-turn

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. Kumagai, Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II, Population Studies of Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6609-4_1

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2

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

1.1 The Outlook of Fukui Prefecture The prefecture along the Hokurikudo we will discuss in this Volume II is Fukui Prefecture, made up of the provinces once known as Echizen and Wakasa. Fukui Prefecture is located in the westernmost part of the Hokuriku region, facing the Sea of Japan in central Honshu and bounded by Ishikawa Prefecture to the north, Gifu Prefecture to the east, Shiga and Kyoto prefectures to the south, and the Sea of Japan to the west (see Fig. 1.4 in Chap. 1, Vol. I, and Fig. 1.1). It is geographically divided into the northern district, called Reihoku, roughly equivalent to the former Echizen Province except for Tsuruga-shi, and the southern district called the Reinan area of the former Wakasa Province including Tsuruga-shi. The Reihoku district is further divided into three areas: the Fukui-Sakai, Oku-Echizen, and Tannan areas (see Fig. 1.1). The northern district, which includes most of the land area and population, is largely occupied by mountain ranges interspersed with coastal plains and river valleys. The southern district is a narrow strip of rocky coast along Wakasa Bay, separated by mountain ranges from Shiga and Kyoto prefectures to the south. Major rivers include the Kuzuryugawa, Hinogawa, and Asuwagawa. The climate is fairly typical of the Sea of Japan coastline, i.e., humid and cloudy with heavy rain and snowfall, particularly in the northern district (Fukui Iju Navi 2020, Kodansha International 1983). Fukui Prefecture has an area of 4,190.52 km2 and a population of 766,789 (estimated as of January 1, 2020). It takes about 3.5 h by Japan Railway (JR) from Tokyo and about 1 h and 50 min by JR from Osaka to reach Fukui-shi, the capital of Fukui Prefecture. On land, it is surrounded by lush mountains such as Hakusan National Park and Okukoshi Kogen Prefectural Natural Park, and Wakasa Bay National Park. Echizen Kaga Coast National Park is blessed with a rich natural environment called Etsuzan Jakusui,1 including the varied coastline and the abundant water resources nurtured by the humid climate. The climate is often cloudy and snowy in the winter, but the high humidity and the gentle environment make for pleasant living. In the summer, differences in the temperature are small throughout the prefecture, and the hours of sunshine are longer than in Tokyo (Fukui Iju Navi 2020). There are climatological differences in Fukui Prefecture due to differences in topography and the influence of the monsoon, but there are days when it snows in winter. The Oku-Echizen area of Reihoku district (Oono-shi, #➃ on Fig. 1.1, and Katsuyama-shi, #➄ on Fig. 1.1), in particular, has a lower temperature and more snow than other areas. Thus, in the Oku-Echizen area in the spring, the snow melts and becomes a clear stream. The four seasons in Fukui Prefecture are distinct, and the people enjoy the beautiful scenery in each season (Fukui Iju Navi 2020). These four areas and 17 municipalities of Fukui Prefecture are listed below, and are also found in Fig. 1.1 (the number corresponds to the ones on the map).

1.1 The Outlook of Fukui Prefecture

3

Fig. 1.1 Map of Fukui Prefecture by municipality and by area (9 cities, 8 towns = Total of 17 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap. jp/tp/Fukui. Accessed 14 Nov 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each area

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1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

Reihoku District: Fukui-Sakai Area (4 municipalities): ➀Fukui-shi, ➆Awara-shi, ➈Sakai-shi, ➉Eiheiji-cho Oku-Echizen Area (2 municipalities): ➃Oono-shi, ➄Katsuyama-shi 11 Ikeda-cho, Tannan Area (5 municipalities): ➅Sabae-shi, ➇Echizen-shi,   12 Minami-Echizen-cho,  13 Echizen-cho Reinan District: 14 Mihama-cho, Reinan Area (6 municipalities): ➁Tsuruga-shi, ➂Obama-shi,   15 Takahama-cho,  16 Ooi-cho,  17 Wakasa-cho

1.2 A Brief History of Fukui Prefecture The area contains numerous archaeological sites that indicate early settlement. Under the ancient Goki-Shichido and provincial system (Ritsuryo2 System), it was divided into the provinces of Echizen and Wakasa, with much of the land owned by important temples. The Yamato court valued Echizen as a base for the Hokuriku management. Therefore, the Kehi Jingu Shrine in Tsuruga was carefully created. When the imperial court’s royal family was divided in the early sixth century, Emperor Keitai, the successor to the royal family based in Echizen, took over the position of the great king. Emperor Keitai received the support of a wide range of tribes from Echizen, Owari, Mino, and Omi through the activities of the traders in Echizen (Takemitsu 2001). Since the Nara period (710–794), Echizen and Wakasa have been valued by the imperial court as trading bases in the Hokuriku region. In addition, due to it being located for good transportation from Nara and Kyoto, many shoen3 (manors) have been developed in the area. In the Middle Ages4 in Japan, a samurai corps was formed by the manor. In neither Echizen nor Wakasa, however, did any person influential enough to develop the rule of one country emerge (Takemitsu 2001). During the Onin War,5 the leader of the Asakura family finally established control as warlords in Echizen. However, the samurai there were weakly unified, and the Asakura clan continued to be troubled by the movement of the feudal lord of Ikko-ikki.6 ASHIKAGA Yoshiaki, the last of the 15th shogunate of the Muromachi period, who had been chased from Kyoto, once relied on ASAKURA Yoshikage, but Yoshikage did not show any interest in him. Therefore, ASHIKAGA Yoshiaki moved to ODA Nobunaga. Consequently, the Asakura clan family missed the opportunity to take over all of Japan. Kyoto-style culture flourished in Ichijodani, the home of the Asakura clan family. However, this arose from trade profits, and their control over the Asakura clan territory was weak. As a result, ASHIKAGA Yoshiaki, who was deceived by the prosperous appearance of the Asakura family and went down to Echizen, was disappointed when he saw the actual situation of the Asakura clan family (Takemitsu 2001).

1.2 A Brief History of Fukui Prefecture

5

When ODA Nobunaga conquered Kyoto, he attacked the Asakura clan family. After that, the Asakura family was too weakened to win any battle with Nobunaga. After the fall of the Asakura clan and a change in several rulers, including the SHIBATA Katsuie, most of Echizen was ruled by the Matsudaira clan, the lord of the Fukui domain. However, the Matsudaira family was reduced from 450,000-koku7 to 250,000-koku in the 17th century (Takemitsu 2001). During the Edo period, the land was divided into two types—the Tenryo territories that were under the direct control of the Edo Shogunate, and the land and territory of each clan. In Echizen Province, there were nine clans: Fukui, Maruoka, Oono, Katsuyama, Gujo, Nishio, Sabae, Kachiyama, and Tsuruga. Wakasa Province, on the other hand, consisted of only the Obama Clan (Fukui Prefecture Statistics & Information Department 2016). At the end of the Edo period, the Fukui domain grew rapidly under the guidance of MATSUDAIRA Yoshinaga through reforms such as domestic production. MATSUDAIRA Yoshinaga appointed his vassal, HASHIMOTO Sanai to play an active role as a Joi8 (advocating the expulsion of western foreigners) at the end of the Tokugawa shogunate, and further advocated the Kobu Gattai9 (uniting the court and shogunate). However, as the power of the Satsuma and Choshu domains expanded (Saccho Rengo10 —a Satsuma and Choshu Alliance), the Fukui domain gradually weakened, and the Sabakuha (supporters of the Shogun) dropped out. Such a move arose from the fact that the Matsudaira clan could not bring together the people of Echizen. The middle class in Echizen was confident in their talents and had a strong independent streak. Therefore, neither the Asakura family nor the Matsudaira family could be a major force in moving national affairs during the end of the Edo period (Takemitsu 2001). When the Haihan-Chiken (the abolition of the feudal domain system and the enforcement of the prefectural system) was enforced on July 14, 1871, each of eight clans, except for the Tsuruga Clan of Echizen Province, formed the Prefecture using its clan name. Obama Clan of Wakasa Province, together with Tsuruga Clan, formed Obama Prefecture. After that, Fukui Prefecture (later renamed Asuwa Prefecture) (comprising Echizen Province) and Tsuruga Prefecture (comprising most of Wakasa Province) were established in November of the same year. Then, in January of 1873, these two prefectures with a population of approximately 540,000, were integrated into Tsuruga Prefecture. In 1876, the northern part of Tsuruga Prefecture, with the exception of the Tsuruga area, was integrated into Ishikawa Prefecture. In addition, all the regions of Wakasa Province and Tsuruga were integrated into Shiga Prefecture, hence Tsuruga Prefecture disappeared. However, five years later, in 1881, previously integrated regions to Ishikawa and Shiga prefectures, i.e., the former Tsuruga Prefecture, were incorporated to form the current Fukui Prefecture (Fukui Prefecture Statistics & Information Department 2016). At the time of the Great Merger of Meiji11 in 1888, there were 1,990 municipalities (248 towns, and 1,742 villages) in Fukui Prefecture of the total 71,314 throughout Japan. Due to the Great Showa Consolidation, these municipalities were consolidated into 61 (7 cities, 41 towns, and 13 villages) of the 3,472 municipalities throughout Japan by June 1961. The Great Merger of Heisei further accelerated the consolidation

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1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

of municipalities to become 17 municipalities in Fukui Prefecture (9 cities, and 8 towns) of the 1,821 in Japan by the end of March 2006 (Fukui Prefecture Statistics & Information Department 2016).

1.3 Population of Fukui Prefecture Today Before we discuss the shrinking population of Fukui Prefecture in detail, let us look into changes and the future prospects of the population in Fukui Prefecture based on the report made by the Population Bureau of Fukui Prefecture in March 2020. Statistics come from the basic data for the formulation of the “Second Fukui Revitalization and Population Decline Countermeasure Strategy” (Fukui Prefecture Office 2020, Fukui Prefecture Statistics Bureau 2017).

1.3.1 Population Changes in Fukui Prefecture The total population of Fukui Prefecture in 1950 was 752,000, and it continued to increase to a peak of 829,000 in 2000. Since then, however, it has been on the decline. In the most recent national census, dated October 1, 2015, the total population of Fukui Prefecture declined to 786,740, a decrease of 19,574 (−2.4%) from 806,314 in the previous national census conducted in 2010. This is the third consecutive population decline since the last national census in 2005, and the rate of decline in both the population number and the rate were the largest since the national census started in Japan in 1920 (Taisho 9). Looking at the population of each prefecture in order of size in 2015, Fukui Prefecture is 43rd of the 47 prefectures.12 According to estimates by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), the population will decrease to 614,000 by 2045. Looking at age groups, the older adult population has been continuously on the increment trend, while both the child and working populations have continued to decline. In 1980, the structure of the population in Fukui Prefecture was a pyramid shape, with a large child and working population. By 2040, however, it is expected to become an inverted pyramid, with a large older adult population (Fukui Prefecture Office 2020, Fukui Prefecture Statistics Bureau 2017, IPSS 2013, 2018). The population of Fukui Prefecture in 2015, in fact, is 0.2% higher (1,940) than the one projected by IPSS based on census trends up to 2010 (IPSS 2013, 2018). Furthermore, it is projected to decrease to 614,144 (−21.94%) by 2045 (IPSS 2018), and this rate is significantly lower than the national average (−16.27%, see Table 1.1) (calculated from Table 12.6 in IPSS 2020). In addition, among the 47 prefectures in Japan, the annual population decrease rate for the most recent statistics available (Japan average: −0.18 in 2018), reveals that Fukui Prefecture ranks 22nd (−0.49%) (Table 12.1 in IPSS 2020). From this annual rate of population decline, we can see

1.3 Population of Fukui Prefecture Today

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Table 1.1 Municipal power of Fukui Prefecture: Reihoku Region, Reinan Region, Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho Municipality

Generationa family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2015 (‰)a

Annual populationsustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rate 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average

13.29

5.10

−0.19

−16.3

Fukui Prefecture average

30.51

4.36

−0.55

−21.9

Reihoku region (11)

33.49

4.09

−1.10

−32.4

30.52

4.11

−0.62

−23.3

Fukui-Sakai area (4) Oku-Echizen area (2)

37.83

3.66

−1.36

−37.9

Tannan area (5)

34.13

4.50

−1.31

−35.9

25.05

4.65

−0.93

−33.7

Reinan region (6) Sabae-shi (Tannan area)

28.09

4.79

0.06

−6.4

Eiheiji-cho (Fukui-Sakai area)

33.91

3.58

−0.90

−28.0

Ikeda-cho (Tannan area)

38.94

5.71

−2.99

−56.9

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2020), b MIAC (2014), c IPSS (2018). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

that Fukui Prefecture is ranked as one of the middle prefectures among the shrinking Japanese society today.

1.3.2 Demographic Changes in Fukui Prefecture by Municipality Based on the national census of 2015 looking at the population by municipality (17 municipalities after the merger of cities, towns, and villages), Fukui-shi (#➀ on Fig. 1.1) has the largest population in Fukui Prefecture at 265,904 (33.8%), followed by Sakai-shi (#➈ on Fig. 1.1) at 90,280 (11.5%), and Echizen-shi (#➇ on Fig. 1.1) at 81,524 people (10.4%). Compared to the previous national census of 2010, the population increased in only one city in Sabae-shi (#➀ on Fig. 1.1), an increase of 834 people (1.2%). When the population of 2015 is compared with that of 1965, 45 years ago as 100, the largest increase was in Sabae-shi at 136.2, and the largest decrease was 39.9 in Ikeda-cho (#➀ on Fig. 1.1) (see Figs. 1.1 and 1.2) (Fukui Prefecture Statistics Bureau 2017). All of these municipalities discussed here, i.e., the most populated, and those with increasing and decreasing populations, are in the Reihoku region, the ancient Echizen Province. It suggests that there would be little impact on the demography of the present- day Fukui Prefecture of provincial differences stemming from the Goki-Shichido under the Ritsuryo Code.

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1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

Fig. 1.2 Projected population increase rates by the municipality for Fukui Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 16 Nov 2020

1.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power: Fukui Prefecture, Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho Fukui Prefecture’s municipal power majoring with Generational family household, Marriage power, Annual population-sustaining power, and Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 are compared and contrasted by region, as well as the selected municipalities of Sabae-shi and Ikeda-cho of the Tannan area and Eiheijicho of the Fukui-Sakai area (see Table 1.1). We should note that these three municipalities all belong to the Reihoku region of the ancient Echizen Province. Reasons for selecting these three municipalities are as follows: In Sabae-shi (#➅ in Fig. 1.1) (the population in 2015: 68,284; 1.2% increment from 2010) the population decrease rate is projected to be the lowest among all the 17 municipalities in Fukui Prefecture from 2015 to 2045 (−6.4%). In Eiheiji-cho (#➉ in Fig. 1.1), the population in 2015 is 19,883, and its increase rate of −3.7% from 2010 to 2015 is the highest among 11 in Fig. 1.1), eight towns of 17 municipalities in Fukui Prefecture. In Ikeda-cho (# a small town with a population of 2,638 in 2015, the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 (-56.9%) is the lowest in Fukui Prefecture (Fukui Prefecture Statistics Bureau 2017, IPSS 2013, 2018). As each municipality possesses its own municipal powers, close analyses will provide insights that can prevent them from becoming shrinking societies. For easy reference, these municipalities are circled in red on the map in Fig. 1.1.

1.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining …

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Looking at the generational family households in 2015, we notice that on average, a little less than one-third of the households in Fukui Prefecture (30.51%) are multigenerational. This is significantly higher than the Japanese average (13.29%), and similar to Niigata Prefecture (31.69%), but not so similar to Ishikawa Prefecture (23.59%, which we discussed in Chap. 3, Vol. I of this book). In addition, we notice that the high rate of generational family households in Fukui Prefecture do differ among regions, but not significantly across areas in the Reihoku region. In other words, there are regional differences between the Reihoku (Echizen Province) and the Reinan (Wakasa Province), but not so much within the different areas of the Reihoku region (see Table 1.1). Despite the fact that the proportion of generational family households in the Reihoku region is much higher than that of the Reinan region, the reverse pattern is exhibited in the marriage power. In other words, the provincial difference between Echizen and Wakasa does indeed seem to be operating in present-day Fukui Prefecture. The rate of the generational family household is higher in the Reihoku region, but its marriage power is lower than those for the Reinan region. When we look at the population-sustaining rate and the projected population increase rate, there seems to be little difference between the Reihoku and the Reinan regions. It might be that families in the Reinan region are younger than in Reihoku, hence the marriage power is higher. The 2020 report on yearly population increase rates by municipality in each prefecture13 reveals that the top 10 of the 17 municipalities in Fukui Prefecture in 2019 are equally divided between the Reihoku and the Reinan. These municipalities are Sabae-shi (0.57%, ranking at 420th of the 1,724 municipalities as of December 31, 2019), Fukui-shi (−0.45%, 628th), Obama-shi (−067%, 736th), Sakai-shi (−0.68%, 741st), Tsuruga-shi (−0.73%, 763rd), Awara-shi (−0.93%, 896th), Takahama-cho (−0.94%, 908th), Ooi-cho (−0.96%, 919th), Echizen-shi (−1.20%, 1,055th), and Eiheiji-cho (−1.23%, 1,069th) (Nikkei BP 2020, Statistics Bureau & MIAC 2020). These findings may suggest a not-so-distinctive pattern of regional variations within the prefecture of Fukui based on our theoretical framework of the Goki Shichido, i.e., Echizen versus Wakasa provincial differences. It may be the result of the historical development of these two provinces, i.e., that neither Echizen nor Wakasa had an influential family clan who controlled it as one country emerged. When we look at the three municipalities selected for detailed study of their municipal powers in Fukui Prefecture—Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho—the proportions of generational family households differ among these three. This perhaps corresponds to the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045; only Sabaeshi is below the prefectural average. It indicates that although Fukui Prefecture as a whole still maintains the traditional sociocultural characteristics of traditional agricultural society, population-growing municipalities such as Sabae-shi may have a sizable proportion of households without any older adults (see Table 1.1). The impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 17 municipalities in Fukui Prefecture in 2013 is not significant at all (Y = −3.282 + 0.530X, variance explained R2 = 0186, p = 0.084). It is somewhat puzzling to observe the high marriage power in Ikeda-cho (2013: 4.35‰, 2015: 5.71‰, the

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1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

highest rate among 17 municipalities in Fukui Prefecture in 2015), but both the annual population-sustaining power of 2013 and the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 are extremely low, and the worst within the prefecture. It may be that the municipality of Ikeda-cho introduced some measures to encourage the younger generation of adults to move into the town, giving them the opportunity to revitalize the town and save it from disappearing. It suggests that some phenomena resulting in social population increase have occurred in the municipality of Ikeda-cho in recent years. This is worth further investigation, and we will do so later in this chapter (see Sect. 1.7). Despite many municipalities in rural farming regions in the northeastern part of Japan being on the verge of extinction due to their shrinking populations (Kumagai 2018, 2020), municipalities in Fukui Prefecture might not be confronted with such a situation by 2045. The outcomes of municipal powers in Fukui Prefecture suggest that we should closely and separately analyze the factors contributing to each municipality’s projected population increase in 2045, and not Fukui Prefecture as a whole. Let us analyze Ikeda-cho in detail later in the chapter (see Table 1.2 presented in the following section).

1.5 Population Changes by Age Group: Fukui Prefecture, Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho 1.5.1 Population Changes by Age Group in Fukui Prefecture According to the latest “2015 Life Table by Prefecture” released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the average life expectancy of Fukui Prefecture in 2015 (life expectancy at birth) for men is 81.27 (0.50 years longer than the national average), and for women is 87.54 (0.53 years longer than the national average) (MHLW 2018), According to the “Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008–2012,” the average number of newborn babies in Fukui Prefecture from 2008 to 2012 was 6,899; its rate per 1,000 population is 8.7 (national average: 8.4), which is the tenth highest among 47 prefectures. The total fertility rate (TFR), which is an estimate of the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime during the same period (2008–2012), is 1.62, the fourth highest of all the 47 prefectures (MHLW 2014). Projections for population increase rates by the municipality in 2040 in Fukui Prefecture are presented using the G-Census GPS geographic tool. It is clear that population decline would be accelerated throughout Fukui Prefecture regardless of region. We notice, however, that a couple of municipalities, such as Sabae-shi and Fukui-shi, are notable, as the projected population decrease rates are relatively low. On the other hand, in municipalities such as Ikeda-cho, Oono-shi, and Ooi-cho the population decrease rates from 2010 to 2040 are extremely high (see Fig. 1.2). With projected population decrease rates in Ikeda-cho of −56.0% from 2010 to 2040

1.5 Population Changes by Age Group: Fukui Prefecture …

11

Table 1.2 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Fukui Prefecture, Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old–old 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

10.7

Fukui Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

22.9

18.9

15.7

14.0

13.3

12.0

11.3

Working population 15–64

65.6

66.2

63.8

60.8

58.1

55.5

53.7

50.3

Older adults 65+ population

11.5

14.8

20.5

25.2

28.6

32.6

35.0

38.5

4.1

6.2

8.9

13.5

14.7

19.2

21.7

23.0

Old–old 75+ population

11.2

Sabae-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

25.1

19.1

16.1

15.7

15.0

13.7

12.9

12.7

Working population 15–64

64.8

67.3

65.4

61.5

58.8

57.7

56.6

52.7

Older adults 65+ population

10.1

13.6

18.5

22.8

26.2

28.6

30.5

34.6

3.4

5.7

8.1

11.5

12.7

17.2

18.5

19.5

Old–old 75+ population Eiheiji-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

22.4

17.3

14.9

13.3

12.3

10.6

10.4

10.5

Working population 15–64

65.3

66.6

64.5

62.1

60.3

58.3

55.6

52.3

Older adults 65+ population

12.3

16.1

20.6

24.6

27.4

31.0

34.0

37.2

3.9

6.9

8.7

13.4

14.4

18.0

20.7

22.3

Old–old 75+ population Ikeda-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

17.5

16.4

14.3

9.1

8.1

7.6

7.5

6.9

Working population 15–64

64.8

60.7

51.0

50.2

48.7

44.1

40.9

39.1

Older adults 65+ population

17.8

22.9

34.6

40.6

43.2

48.2

51.6

54.0

6.9

9.8

14.6

26.2

28.5

29.9

35.2

37.2

Old–old 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSS (2018)

(IPSS 2013) and −56.9% from 2015 to 2045, the town is said to be on the verge of extinction (IPSS 2018). The proportion of older adults 65 and over within the total population of Fukui Prefecture in 2015 was 28.6%. This is 2.0% higher than the national average (26.6%). It is projected that the proportion will increase by 9.8% by 2045 to reach 38.5%. In other words, it is expected that nearly 4 out of 10 people of Fukui Prefecture will be older adults by that time (see Table 1.2). Furthermore, according to the “Future Estimates of the Number of Japanese Households,” the number of older adults 65 and over living alone in Fukui Prefecture is 29,000 in 2015. This will increase by 13% to 33,000 households in 2020, and the

12

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

percentage of older adults living alone will be 13.7%. On top of that, by the year 2040, when the number of working people aged 44 to 45 will reach the age of 65, the number of households in which older adults 65 and over living alone will increase about 1.3 times to 43,000; the percentage of such households is projected to be 17.8% (the national average: 22.9%) by 2040. Looking at the period from 2015 to 2040, the rate of increase for older adults living alone is 49.2% (the national average: 43.4%), which is the 12th among all the 47 prefectures (IPSS 2019).

1.5.2 A Brief History of and Population Changes in Sabae-shi Sabae-shi is an area with a long history. In the fifth century, the largest circular burial mound in Fukui Prefecture, Kabutoyama Tumulus was built (diameter about 70 m; height about 7 m; width about 17 m; peripheral groove, grave-area diameter about 90 m; two-tiered construction).14 In the Middle Ages, Shinran,15 who was on his way to Echigo for exile, visited this place and opened a dojo (Buddhist training hall). After that, the dojo became Josho-ji Temple, and the temple prospered to the extent that it had an influence on the surroundings, and monzen-machi (temple town) was formed in the neighboring area (Fukui-ken Rekishi.com 2020). In the Edo period, Sabae was divided by the Tenryo (imperial lands), Fukui Domain, and Obama Domain, but in 1645, MATSUDAIRA Masachika (Masaaki) was given 25,000 koku from the Fukui Domain. Then, the Yoshie clan was established in the first year of Keian (1648) in an attempt to integrate the territories. However, in 1674, when Masachika (Masaaki) succeeded the Fukui Domain, the Yoshie domain was abolished (Fukui-ken Rekishi.com 2020). In the 5th year of Kyoho (1720), MANABE Akitoki was transferred to Sabae from the Murakami Domain (today’s Murakami-shi, Niigata Prefecture) with 50,000 koku, and the Sabae Domain was established by the 50,000 koku. Nevertheless, the castle was not approved at first, and there was a jinya (government office).16 Although the Sabae Domain was 50,000 koku, the permission to build the castle was not granted in the beginning, and the jinya was set up in the old land where the daikansho (district office) was. Since then, the feudal lord laid the foundation of the present City of Sabae by the hereditary succession of the Manabe clan to develop the castle town and territory (Fukui-ken Rekishi.com 2020). The total population of Sabae-shi is 68,629 with 23,813 households as of December 1, 2020, and it is the only municipality in Fukui Prefecture whose population has increased (1.2%) from the national census in 2010 (67,450) to that of 2015 (68,284) (Fukui Prefecture Statistics and Information Department 2017, Fukui U-Turn Center 2020). After hitting its peak in 2020, the population is projected to begin declining to 63,912 by the year 2045 (−6.4% from 2015) (IPSS 2018). Although the rate and speed of the population’s shrinking in Sabae-shi is the least acute in Fukui Prefecture, it is occurring via fertility decline and population aging. The proportion of the child population in Sabae-shi in 1980 was a quarter of the total population, but it is projected to reduce by half, i.e., one out of every 8. On the

1.5 Population Changes by Age Group: Fukui Prefecture …

13

contrary, the proportion of the older adults 65 and over’s population was one out of every 10 in 1980, and was 26.2% in 2015, which is almost the same as the national average (26.6%). In the future, the aging rate will increase by 8.4% by 2045 to reach 34.6%, and is projected to be as much as one-third of the total population in 2045 (see Table 1.2, IPSS 2018). When we look at changes in the working population of Sabae-shi, it has been on the declining trend, and is projected to be 52.7% of the total population by the year 2045, which is slightly higher than the national average (see Table 1.2). Then, we come to the question of why there is a relatively favorable proportion of the working population in Sabae-shi. In addition, according to the latest “2015 Life Table by Municipalities,” published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on April 17, 2018, the average life expectancy in Sabae-shi in 2015 (life expectancy of 0-yearold children) is 0.9 years longer than the national average for men (81.7 years), and 0.6 years longer than the national average for women (87.6 years) (MHLW 2018). Sabae-shi is known as the “manufacturing town” where various industries concentrate. There seems to be a relationship between a manufacturing town and a tendency for people to have a high rate of population support. It would be due to a high rate of association among such activities as manufacturing, production, and reproduction, although no evidence to support the statement could be shown. The city has a 90% share of domestic production of the eyeglass frame industry; a textile industry that has played a central role in Fukui (enough for it to be called the textile kingdom); a lacquerware industry that goes back more than 1,500 years, and which accounts for 80% of domestic commercial lacquerware; and an IT industry. In addition, the city is blessed with abundant nature. Nishiyama Park, for example, has been certified as one of the 100 Best Historical Parks in Japan and is popular for the best azaleas in the Sea of Japan (Fukui U-Turn Center 2020).

1.5.3 A Brief History and Population Changes in Eiheiji-cho Eiheiji-cho has a long history, and the Teguriyamajyo Kofun (a keyhole-shaped tumulus with a total length of 128.4 m), built in the middle of the fourth century, is the second largest in the Hokuriku region. At the end of the Heian period (794– 1185), manors such as Shibaharasho and Shihisho were established. In the first year of Kangen (1243), HATANO Yoshishige, who was a jito (manor steward) of Shihisho, invited Zen Master Dogen17 to open Yoshimine-dera Temple. The following year, in the second year of Kangen (1244), Daibutsuji Temple, which was later known as Eiheiji Temple, was opened (Fukui-ken Rekishi.com 2020). As the Sohonzan (Grand Head Temple) of the Soto sect of Zen, Eiheiji Temple widely spread the faith; many followers gathered in the town to form the monzenmachi. Thus, the town had a great influence on the surrounding area. As a consequence, the town became a central battleground and was burned down many times. In the Edo period, it initially belonged to the Fukui domain, but in 1645, the third feudal lord, MATSUDAIRA Tadamasa, separated his eldest son, Masakatsu, with

14

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

50,000 koku, and the Matsuoka domain was established. Matsuoka was developed as a castle town to become an administrative and economic center of the surrounding area. In 1721 (Kyoho 6), however, when Munemasa was the head of the Matsuoka domain, he succeeded the lord of the Fukui domain, which was the main domain. The Matsuoka domain was then abolished, and the area became the territory of the Fukui domain, under the control of the Kanazu magistrate’s office, followed by the Meiji Restoration, commonly believed to last for 15 years from the arrival of the Matthew Perry (1853) to the Taisei Hokan (restoration of the imperial rule in 1867) (Fukui-ken Rekishi.com 2020). Being the Grand Head Temple of the Soto sect of Zen, Eiheiji-cho was visited by more than 500,000 tourists every year until the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic of 2020. While preserving the historic townscape and the rural landscape, the town of Eiheiji is also developing various child-rearing support and health promotion programs in hopes of contributing to immigration. These programs include providing free school lunch to children from elementary to junior high school, supporting childrearing by offering free medical expenses up to junior high school, and, in an attempt to become the healthiest municipality in Japan, offering various medical examination programs free of charge (Fukui U-Turn Center 2020). The total population of Eiheiji-cho is 18,440, with 6,376 households as of January 1, 2020. According to the 2010 and 2015 censuses, the population decreased by −3.7%, from 20,647 in 2010 to 19,883 in 2015 (Fukui U-Turn Center 2020). The population in 2015 is 410 (2.0%) less than the projected population of 2015 by IPSS (2018) based on the census up to 2010, which is slightly below the forecast. The speed of population decline is slightly faster than projected from the 2010 trend. In addition, according to the latest “2015 Life Table by Municipalities” (MHLW 2018) the average life expectancy of Eiheiji-cho in 2015 is 81.7 years for men (0.9 years longer than the national average), and 87.6 years for women (0.6 years longer than the national average). The longer life expectancy of the people in Eiheiji-cho means that the proportion of the older adult population will grow much faster than the national average. The proportion of older adults 65 and over in Eiheiji-cho in 2015 was 27.4%; this is 0.8% higher than the national average of 26.6%. In the future, the aging rate is projected to increase by 9.8% by 2045 to reach 37.2%; about 4 out of 10 people will be older adults (see Table 1.2). The child population (0–14), on the contrary, has been on the decline continuously since 1980, and it is 12.3% of the total population. It is encouraging, however, to see that its projected proportion in 2045 is 10.5%, an increase of 0.1% from the projected proportion of 2035 (see Table 1.2). This may indicate the welcome result of various child-rearing support programs developed by the Eiheiji Town Office.

1.6 Radar Chart of Fukui Prefecture: Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho …

15

1.6 Radar Chart of Fukui Prefecture: Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart with 14 socioeconomic indicators of Fukui Prefecture for Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho (see Fig. 1.3). (For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 1.7, Vol. I of this book.) By looking at these three municipalities in Fukui Prefecture showing 14 socioeconomic indicators in the radar chart, we immediately note quite a different pattern in Ikeda-cho from the other two municipalities. The overall evaluation for Sabae-shi ranks 206th of the total 1,742 municipalities tested throughout Japan. None of the indicators for Sabae-shi are outstandingly high, but of the 14 indicators, higher ones are life expectancy (187th), hospitals (245th), TFR (260th), social population growth (289th), and natural population growth (343rd). It is disappointing to find that social welfare for older adults in Sabae-shi ranks 1,519th despite the industrial success of the city (see Fig. 1.3). The overall assessment of Eiheiji-cho is 317th of 1,742 municipalities in Japan. Its strength comes from life expectancy (68th) and employment (128th), but it is weak in municipal GDP (1,354th). With historical and natural resources such as Eiheiji Temple and the Kuzuryu River, the major industry of the town is tourism. According to the latest data, the number of regular employees of businesses in Eiheiji-cho has increased from 6,714 (3,603 of which are women) to 8,047 (4,724 women) in five years (2014–2019). In terms of tourism, the number of tourists entering Eiheijicho as a whole has increased significantly from 790,000 in the fiscal year 2015 to Traffic Safety Employment

Sabae-shi Eiheiji-cho Ikeda-cho

Security

Wealth

Life Expectancy

Finance

Hospitals

Revenue

Child Welfare

Older Adult Welfare

Municipal GDP Social Population Growth

TFR Natural Population Growth

Fig. 1.3 Fukui Prefecture radar chart: Sabae-shi, Eiheiji-cho, and Ikeda-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva Radar Chart (http://evacva.doc.kyushu-u.ac.jp/app/). Accessed 11 July 2018

16

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

1.06 million in the fiscal year 2019. However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the number of tourists visiting the area in 2020 has dropped considerably (Eiheiji Town Office 2020). Thus, for Eiheiji-cho to survive as a tourism town, it is essential to develop effective initiatives, possibly virtual, that account for social distancing in the post-coronavirus era. Ikeda-cho’s overall evaluation is 1,086th of the 1,742 municipalities in Japan (see Fig. 1.3). The town has been designated as one of the 896 municipalities most likely to disappear by the year 2040 (Masuda 2014). Is this likely to occur? Let us examine EvaCva indicators for Ikeda-cho. Of the 14 indicators tested, six of them, in fact, are rated as critical situations. These indicators are: social population growth (1,667th), natural population growth (1,640th), finance (1,623rd), wealth (1,607th), municipal GDP (1,515th), and revenue (1,510th). On the other hand, three indicators are evaluated highly. They are traffic safety (22nd), security (73rd), and life expectancy (134th) (see Fig. 1.3). With these EvaCva evaluations, we might assume that Ikeda-cho is on the verge of extinction. However, conducting in-depth research on measures Ikeda-cho has recently been taking, we realize that the projection of the town’s disappearance is not correct. Thus, we will analyze the municipal power of Ikeda-cho in detail in the following section.

1.7 Municipal Power of Ikeda-cho of Reinan Region in Wakasa Province 1.7.1 An Overview of Ikeda-cho Ikeda-cho is a town located in the central part of the Tannan area, the Reihoku region of Fukui Prefecture (see #11 on Fig. 1.1). Of its total area (194.15 km2 ), more than 90% is mountainous and it is one of the most remote mountainous areas in Fukui Prefecture. The main residential area is surrounded by mountains in a valley that extends slightly to about 150 to 250 m above sea level. The entire town has been designated as a special heavy snowfall area, and there is a lot of rainfall in the winter. The town is filled with clean air and beautiful nature, such as the clear Asuwa River;18 Japan Ryusoga Falls,19 one of the 100 best waterfalls; Kanmuri Mountain, selected as one of the 100 most important natural environments to preserve;20 and the idyllic rural scenery found all over Ikeda-cho (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2015). The most notable culture in Ikeda-cho would be “Dengaku21 Noh22 .” The Mizuumi district of Ikeda-cho has traditional dancing, which combines both Dengaku and Noh, and has been passed down for 780 years. On May 4, 1976, it was the first important intangible folk cultural property of Japan designated by the Ministry of Education Notification No. 79. HOJO Tokiyori, who was in charge of the Kamakura Shogunate during the Kencho period (1246–1256), visited the land of Ikeda when he traveled to various parts of Japan. It was midwinter, and he was stranded because of the snow, and had no choice but to spend the winter in the Mizuumi district. At

1.7 Municipal Power of Ikeda-cho of Reinan Region in Wakasa Province

17

that time, the villagers danced “Dengaku” to comfort and entertain Tokiyori, and he, in turn, taught the villagers “Noh dance” to express his appreciation. Today there are still three rare shrines with a Noh stage in the town, including the Ukan Shrine, where Dengaku Noh dance is dedicated. The 41 ancient Noh faces that convey a long history of Noh culture in Ikeda-cho are carefully preserved, and every year on February 15, a dedication ceremony is held at the Ukan Shrine (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2015).

1.7.2 A Brief History of Ikeda-cho The founding of Ikeda-cho is unknown, but it is said that Oonudehime (the landowner god of Shodoshima, an island located in the Inland Sea of Japan, which belongs to Kagawa Prefecture), developed this land. In fact, Shodoshima also has the same place name, Ikeda. Oonudehime is also the deity of Suwaazuki Shrine, which is the Soja23 of Ikeda-cho. After that, the Umeda family, who follow the Taira clan, returned to farming after the Battle of Kurikara24 and cultivated the surrounding area. During the Edo period, they belonged to the Sabae domain and were controlled by the Nishio domain and the Takayama Daikansho25 (also called jinya, a magistrate’s office). Located at the midpoint between Fuchu Castle and Echizen Ono Castle, and positioned as the center of the surrounding area, Ikeda prospered as a transportation hub. However, since the Meiji era, it has started to be deserted due to the improvement of the transportation network. On March 31, 1955, villages of Kami-Ikeda-mura and Shimo-Ikeda-mura were merged to form Ikeda-mura, and in September 1964, the town system was enforced to become Ikeda-cho district. Today the town is known as “Noh Village” with valuable cultural properties such as Dengaku Nohmai and Ikeda Oiwake as discussed above (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2017).

1.7.3 Population Changes in Ikeda-cho As of January 1, 2020, the total population of Ikeda-cho is 2,578 with 933 households. The population of Ikeda-cho has been continuously on the decline since 1950 (8,380). However, there was only a gradual decline of 7,657 in 1960 for two major reasons. First, the timber industry has a high employment capacity because of the abundant forest resources. Second, the constant growth of the primary industry such as the expansion of agricultural production contributed to employment. However, since the mid-1960s, the population decline of Ikeda-cho has accelerated by 10–15% compared to the previous national census statistics (1965: 6,616, 1970: 5,524, 1975: 4,814, 1980: 4,519, 1985: 4,318) due to the full liberalization of timber in 1964,26 the labor demand of the manufacturing industry during a period of high economic growth, and the widening economic disparity between urban and rural areas (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2016).

18

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

Since 1990, when the economic bubble collapsed, the economy has entered a period of stagnation called “the lost 20 years.”27 In fact, due to the decline in employment absorption capacity in urban areas, the population decline rate in Ikeda-cho moved to less than 5% (1990: 4,203). However, since 2000, the population outflow to the outside of Ikeda-cho has become active again, and the population decline rate has deteriorated by more than 10% again (2000: 3,759) (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2016). According to the 2015 national census, the population of Ikeda-cho (2,638) has decreased by −13.4% from the previous one conducted in 2010 (3,046) (Fukui UTurn Center 2020). The population in 2015 is 103 (3.8%) less than the projected population of 2015 by IPSS (2018) based on the census up to 2010, which is significantly less than the forecast. The population is declining much faster than projected from the 2010 trend. The population projection from 2015 to 2045 is 1,197, a decline of 56.9% (see Table 4.1, IPSS 2018). The rate of decrease is the 159th largest among all the municipalities in Japan (1741 as of April 1, 2017, including the 23 wards of Tokyo). The projected average age of the people in Ikeda-cho in 2045 is 61.7, a 5.5-year increase from that of 2015 (GD Freak 2020). In addition, according to the latest “2015 Life Table by Municipality” (MHLW 2018) the average life expectancy of Ikeda-cho in 2015 is 81.1 years for men (0.3 years longer than the national average), and 87.5 years for women (0.5 years longer than the national average). The longer life expectancy of the people in Ikeda-cho will result in a greater proportion of older adults than the national average. The proportion of older adults 65 and over in Ikeda-cho in 2015 was 43.2%; this is 16.6% higher than the national average (26.6%). By the year 2010, it had already exceeded 40%, which is 17.6% higher than the national average (23.0%). It is the 81st highest among all the 1,741 municipalities analyzed. By the year 2030, the proportion of older adults in Ikeda-cho will be in the marginal settlement state, in which its proportion will exceed half the total population. In the future, the aging rate will increase by 10.8% by 2045 to reach 54.0%, and it is expected that more than half of the total population will comprise older adults 65 and over (see Table 1.2, IPSS 2018). In contrast to the acute increasing trend of the older adult population in Ikeda-cho, proportions of both the child and working populations are in sharp decline. The child population decreased to under one out of every 10 by 2010, and is projected to be as low as 6.9% by 2045. The working population was barely above half of the total population in 2010, and is expected to be below 40% of the total population by 2045. These population changes by age group coincide with an extremely low ranking for both the natural and the social population increases we discussed on the radar chart of Ikeda-cho in the previous section (see Fig. 1.3, Table 1.2, IPSS 2018). However, we notice a somewhat unexpected report for the child population of Ikeda-cho in the “Population Increase Rate Ranking 2020” by Nikkei BP (2020) and MIAC (2020). That is, among the 17 municipalities of Fukui Prefecture, the annual increase rate for the child population (0–14) of Ikeda-cho for 2019 was the highest (0.00%, i.e., no changes) followed by Sabae-shi, at −1.52%. It is interesting to find that the total population increase rate ranking for Ikeda-cho is 1,702nd, nearly at

1.7 Municipal Power of Ikeda-cho of Reinan Region in Wakasa Province

19

the bottom layers of all the municipalities in Japan, but for Sabae-shi it ranked at 420th. When it comes to the annual increase rate for the child population in 2020, Ikeda-cho shows up far better than the Sabae-shi (Nikkei BP 2020, Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2020). It is likely that Ikeda-cho has been successful in implementing some measures to sustain the child population as its municipal power. Thus, let us examine the municipal power of Ikeda-cho in detail.

1.7.4 Municipal Power of Ikeda-cho: Kibo no Machi Project—Abandoned Mountains to Adventure Forest Knowing that more than 92% of Ikeda-cho is covered with forest, and that the decline of the forestry industry caused a sizable proportion of the population to leave, there seems to be no municipal power that the people of Ikeda-cho could be proud of. However, it could be said that the municipal power of Ikeda-cho rests upon the very fact that the great majority of the area is covered with forest. To overcome their predicament, Ikeda-cho used the abandoned forest as their trump card to promote tourism. In other words, a negative municipal power can be a powerful positive driving force in a municipality with a declining population, as has been witnessed by the author of this book in Ama-cho in Shimane Prefecture, Nishimeya-mura in Aomori Prefecture, Otoyo-cho in Kochi Prefecture, Toei-cho in Aichi Prefecture, and others (Kumagai 2020).

1.7.4.1

What is the Kibo no Machi Project?

In 2011, the Kibo28 no Machi Project was jointly established by the Ikeda-cho Town Office and Machi UP Ikeda Co., Ltd. The purpose of the project is to generate a regional circulation economy (chiiki junkan keizai)29 by making the best use of municipal power to revitalize the rural community of Ikeda-cho. More specifically, by utilizing the resources and materials of forests and trees in Ikeda-cho, the project aims to create a rich life where the people can explore the forest; conserve and nurture the forest environment; expand the employment, migration, and settlement of young people; and create a small regional circulation economy. The Kibo no Machi Project by Machi UP Ikeda Co., Ltd. started with the operation of the indoor tree-growing facility “Toy House.“ Then, in the spring of 2016, the outdoor facility “Tree Picnic Adventure IKEDA” was opened (Ministry of the Environment 2016, PR TIMES 2015).

20

1.7.4.2

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

What Made Ikeda-Cho Initiate This Project?

It goes without saying that population decline has been a serious issue in various parts of Japan, and Ikeda-cho is no exception; it is even projected that the town will be one of the municipalities that disappear by the year 2040 (Masuda 2014). As younger generations continued to move out of the town due to employment and marriage, the population fell below 3,000 to 2,639 in 2015. With the desire to expand the exchange population (koryu jinko)30 and revitalize the region economically, the town started the Kibo no Machi Project (Ministry of the Environment 2016, PR TIMES 2015).

1.7.4.3

How Ikeda-cho Worked to Solve the Problem

Ikeda-cho focused on creating employment opportunities to prevent the younger generation from leaving. “Tree Picnic Adventure IKEDA” has hired 20 full-time employees. In addition, the town actively accepted newcomers from outside the town, renovated unused vacant houses, and built a “share house” for newcomers. As a result, 13 of the staff were Ikeda townspeople, of whom 4 were I-turners,31 moving in from urban regions (Ministry of the Environment 2016).

1.7.4.4

The Reason for the Success of the Kibo no Machi Project

The Kibo no Machi Project is successful because the people of Ikeda-cho made the best use of their municipal power, i.e., resources and materials existing in the town. More specifically, three examples could be pointed out: thinning the abandoned cedar forest to build an adventure forest; renovating unoccupied houses to build share houses; and the fact that the older adults of Ikeda-cho are willing to extend their experiences and wisdom to give advice to and train young staff (Ministry of the Environment 2016).

1.7.4.5

What the Project is Aiming at in the Future

The Kibo no Machi Project aims to further promote community development that utilizes local resources. Not only will the people enjoy the forest as an outdoor facility, but they will also make more use of the trees and woods in Ikeda-cho in various ways. For example, people can use them to provide “mokuiku”32 (wood education) to people of all ages in Ikeda-cho by giving them physical contact with the trees to learn the value of the mountain that was once abandoned. Experiences like this will not only deepen the understanding of trees, but also cultivate a keen sensitivity for and familiarity with nature, and provide a solid foundation for understanding forests and environmental issues (Ministry of the Environment 2016).

1.7 Municipal Power of Ikeda-cho of Reinan Region in Wakasa Province

21

The Kibo no Machi Project made us realize that the abandoned forest can become a valuable municipal power if people change their perspective. In other words, each local municipality possesses its unique municipal power that can be used for its revitalization, and the Kibo no Machi Project serves as a model for other populationdevastated regions. It is likely that the positive results of Ikeda-cho’s project are the reason for the remarkable annual increase rate in Ikeda-cho’s child population in 2020, as pointed out earlier.

1.7.5 Unresolved Issues of Ikeda-cho The number of people moving into Ikeda-cho is increasing, but at the same time, the population continues to age and decline. In addition, there is an ongoing shortage of people involved in tourism and agriculture. Thus, it is necessary for Ikeda-cho to implement policies that recognize tourism’s contribution to the creation of the town itself rather than tourism as merely a means for revenue. To put it differently, it is necessary to create a new Ikeda-cho where the townspeople play a leading role by using tourism. For the creation of a new type of Ikeda-cho, we suggest four unresolved issues that need to be developed. First, it is necessary to consider means to preserve rural nature and good human relationships; second, programs must be developed to protect the landscape while preserving current agriculture; third, pro-Internet initiatives must be considered that will engage younger generations and women; and fourth, measures must be created to introduce recycling agriculture,33 which brings economic benefits to agricultural and environmental efforts (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2020). If and only if these measures are implemented and fully realized, Ikeda-cho will become a sustainable municipality. In the time of COVID-19, the rural remote municipality such as Ikeda-cho is likely to get the attention of the people not only within Fukui Prefecture, but also from various parts of Japan. Hopefully, such changes in the interest and lifestyles of the people will increase both the exchange and the related population, if not the resident population. It might even be possible to see an increase in the resident population of those who are moving into the town, which seems to have been started little by little in Ikeda-cho already. We have studied the municipal power of Niigata, Ishikawa (in Volume I of this book), and Fukui (in the current Volume II) prefectures along the Hokurikudo. Let us now move on to those along the Tosando. In the following chapter, we will investigate Nagano Prefecture as the first prefecture along the Tosando.

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1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

Notes 1.

2. 3. 4.

5.

6. 7. 8.

9. 10. 11.

Etsuzan Jakusui refers to the nature of Fukui Prefecture. “Etsuzan” refers to the green mountains of the Echizen region, and “Jakusui” refers to the beauty of the mountain stream and water flow that leads to Wakasa Bay. “Jakusui” in Etsuzen Jakusui is read as “Jakusui” in this four-character idiom, but it is generally called “Wakamizu,” originating from the morning water of New Year’s Day, drawn from the well and offered to the miniature shrine of Kamidana in the house. Wakamizu is regarded as the divine water that gets rid of evils (FourCharacter Idiom 2020). For the explanation of Ritsuryo, refer to Note 3 of Chap. 2, Vol. I of this book. Shoen is a private land of aristocrats, shrines, and/or temples found all over Japan from the Nara period (710–794) to the Muromachi period (1336–1573). Middle Ages in Japan: The Middle Ages in Europe are called the feudal era, which lasted for about 1,000 years from the end of the fourth century to the 15th century. However, the Japanese Middle Ages, usually called feudal Japan or medieval Japan in English, run from the Kamakura period (1185–1333) to the Warring States period (1467–1590). The Onin War, fought from 1467 until 1477, was a civil war that broke out during the Muromachi period when the ruling Seii Taishogun (literally, “great general who subdues the barbarians”) was ASHIKAGA Yoshimasa, the eighth person to hold this position. Strife between HOSOKAWA Katsumoto, Muromachi Bakufu (a Japanese feudal government headed by a shogun), Kanrei (Shogun’s deputy of the Muromachi Bakufu), and influential shugo daimyos (military governors-turned-provincial lords) including YAMANA Mochitoyo (later tonsured and renamed YAMANA Sozen) expanded nationwide except in some regions including Kyushu. This triggered the advent of the Sengoku Period (Period of Warring States in Japan). It is also called OninBunmei no Ran (wars). (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles, https://japanese-wiki-corpus.github.io/history/Onin%20War. html. Accessed 3 Dec 2020.) For the explanation of Ikko-Ikki, refer to Note 10 in Chap. 3, Vol. I of this book. For the explanation of koku, refer to Note 5 in Chap. 3, Vol. I of this book. Joi is part of Sonno-Joi, meaning “revere the Emperor, expel the western barbarians,” which is a late Edo period (nineteenth century) revolutionary slogan; this is opposed to the Kaikokuron, a policy of ending the national isolation of Japan (Sakoku) and opening her to foreigners. Kobu-Gattai is the idea of uniting the court and the shogunate during the late Edo period. Saccho Rengo refers to the Satsuma and Choshu Alliance. It is also called the “Saccho Meiyaku” (Satsuma-Choshu Confederacy). For an explanation of the Great Merger of Meiji, the Great Showa Consolidation, and the Great Merger of Heisei, refer to Note 20 of Chap. 3, Vol. I of this book.

Notes

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

23

The total population of Japan in 2015 is 127,094,745; the most populated prefecture is Tokyo (13,515,271 people), and the least populated is Tottori Prefecture (588,667 people) (Fukui Prefecture Statistics and Information Department 2017). The “Population Increase Rate Ranking 2020” is based on the data of “Population, Vital Statistics and Number of Households Based on the Basic Resident Register” (as of January 1, 2020), released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in August 2020. It is a ranking of the population increase/decrease rate for the year from January to December. Cities designated by government ordinance are listed in units of administrative districts (MIAC 2020, Nikkei BP 2020). Throughout Japan, there are several places which have tumulus called Kabutoyama Tumulus. These unicipalities are, for example, Sabae-shi in Fukui Prefecture, Kumagaya-shi in Saitama Prefecture, Nosu-shi in Shiga Prefecture, Okazaki-shi in Aichi Prefecture, and Yamaguchi-shi in Yamaguchi Prefecture. Shinran (May 21, 1173–January 16, 1263) was a Japanese Buddhist monk, who was born in Hino, near Uji, Kyoto as the first son of FUJIWARA (HINO) Arinori. It was a time when the aristocratic Heian period (794–1185) was coming to an end, and the age of the warrior was just beginning, as the Genji and Heike clans were fighting each other. He lived during the Kamakura Period. Shinran was a pupil of Honen and the founder of what ultimately became the Jodo Shinshu sect in Japan. (For more explanation on Shinran refer to http://www.higashihonganji.or.jp/english/about/life/, The Life of Shinran, About Higashi Honganji. Jinya (encampment and feudal lord’s residence): During the Edo period, there were more than 300 domains throughout Japan. However, many of the daimyo could not have a castle and had a “jinya” that instead, served as both a residence and a government office. Dogen: (Dogen Zenji) (January 19, 1200–September 22, 1253), also known as Dogen Kigen, Eihei Dogen, Koso J¯oyo Daishi, or Bussho Dento Kokushi, was a Japanese Buddhist priest, writer, poet, philosopher, and founder of the Soto sect of Zen in Japan (Kodansha International 1983). The Asuwa River starts from Mt. Kanmuri (1257 m), on the border between Fukui and Gifu prefectures, and is a tributary of the Kuzuryu River, with a total length of 61.7 km, that flows through Ikeda-cho and Miyama District of Fukui-shi (former Miyama-cho) and runs through the city of Fukui (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2015). Ryusoga Falls, one of the “100 Best Waterfalls in Japan,” is 60 m high and you can clearly see every drop of water that flows down. When you see the waterfalls flowing into the Sea of Japan through the Asuwa River and the Kuzuryu River, you can feel the great power of nature. You will enjoy different scenery of Ryusoga Falls throughout the year—viewing the beautiful fresh greenery in the spring, enjoying a resort in the summer, and witnessing the beautiful autumn leaves in the early fall (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2015).

24

20.

21.

22.

23. 24.

25.

26.

27.

1 Fukui Prefecture in the Hokurikudo of the Goki-Shichido …

Mt. Kanmuri (1,256.6 m) has been selected as one of the 100 most important natural monuments to preserve in the 21st century, and is located on the border with Gifu Prefecture. Minibuses are not allowed, but if you use the Mt. Kanmuri Forest Road, you can reach the foot of the mountain in about an hour. From there, it takes about two hours to reach the summit of 1,256.6 m on the ridge. It is wonderful to climb on a sunny day, especially in the fall, to enjoy the beautiful scenery of the beech forests turning to red (Ikeda-cho Town Office 2015). Dengaku is a traditional Japanese performing art that was established in the middle of the Heian period (794–1185). It consists of ritual music and dancing. There are theories that it derived from ta-asobi, praying for a good harvest before rice planting. It is said to come from countries such as China and Korea (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). Noh is one of the Japanese traditional stage arts, and is the oldest theatrical art in Japan, dating back to the 14th century. The actors act along with vocal music called “jiuta” and instrumental music called “ohayashi.” The signal characteristic of Noh is that actors wear masks called “Noh-men” during the play, and many of the Noh stories tend to be tragedies. It used to be played outdoors, but is now performed indoors. The leading characters are ghosts, and “kyogen” (comedy) is played between Noh programs. In Kyogen, actors do not wear masks during the play. Many of the Kyogen stories are based on the daily lives of average people, and they tend to be comedic (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). Soja refers to a shrine that brings together gods of local shrines (JapaneseEnglish Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). The Battle of Kurikara Pass (Battle of Kurikara Toge), or the Battle of Tonamiyama, was held at the end of the Heian period (June 2, 1183) between Genji, led by MINAMOTO no Yoshinaka, and the Heike, headed by TAIRA no Koremori, at the Kurikara Pass on the border of Mount Tonami of Ecchu Kaga Province (currently Oyabe-shi, Toyama Prefecture and Tsubata-machi, Kahoku District, Ishikawa Prefecture) (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). Daikansho is a residence of a local administrator in the Edo period, and the daikan set up a jinya (or daikansho, regional office of administrative officials) in their jurisdictional area. To make up for the acute shortage of domestic timber resources in Japan, imports of foreign timber have been gradually liberalized. With the full liberalization of timber imports in 1964, the timber industry in Japan has become more dependent on external timbers such as US pine and hemlock, and New Zealand pine, which are stable in quality and supply (Forestry Agency 2014). The lost 20 years: In Japan, economic stagnation continued for more than 20 years after the burst of the bubble economy in the early 1990s. Japan’s economic growth remained at a low ebb until the early 2010s, even after the “lost decade,” and the resolution of the bad debt problems and balance sheet problems of financial institutions and companies in the mid-2000s.

Notes

28.

29.

30.

31. 32.

33.

25

“Kibo” comprises two Chinese characters, i.e., “ki” means trees, and “bo” means hope. However, the sound of “kibo” means hope. Thus, by saying “kibo no machi project” it means “let us change abandoned mountains to adventure forests.” Chiiki junkan keizai: This is intended to create new demand (added value) by making effective use of the municipal power and idle resources to revitalize trade between regions, and to strengthen economic circulation (Ministry of the Environment 2015). The exchange population (koryu jinko) is a term of tourism referring to the people who visit the area as opposed to people living in the area (teijyu jinko, resident population). People visiting an area are generally commuting to work/school, shopping, and engaging in cultural appreciation activities, learning, lessons, sports, sightseeing, leisure, and others. Another term used in tourism is kankei jinko (related population), which means the people who travel to and from a remote area from their place of residence and interact with the local people in a variety of ways (JTB Tourism Research & Consulting Co. 2020). There are three types of moving patterns in small rural regions in Japan called the UIJ-turn as discussed in the Note 16 in Chap. 2, Vol. I of this book. Mokuiku are educational activities to learn the value of wood and the significance of engaging with it. Encouraging people to engage with trees from early childhood enhances their understanding of the forest’s value. Mokuiku encourages people to incorporate trees into their lives and aims to develop a population of people willing to work for the forest. https://www.rinya.maff. go.jp/j/riyou/kidukai/mokuiku.html (Forestry Agency, July 8, 2019). Recycling agriculture is an initiative to establish sustainable agriculture by using waste from livestock, agriculture, and households as fertilizer, and by recycling garbage from agriculture (ArkFarm: https://www.arkfarm.co.jp/ about/index.html. Accessed 2 Jan 2021).

References Eiheiji Town Office. (2020). Dai 2-ki Eiheiji-cho machi-hito-shigoto sousei sougou senryaku [The 2nd phase of Eiheiji-cho town-people-work creation comprehensive strategy] released November. https://www.town.eiheiji.lg.jp/200/300/313/p010476_d/fil/dainikisougouse nryaku.pdf. Accessed 19 Dec 2020. Four-Character Idiom. (2020). Echizen Jakusui. https://fukuisec.jp/. Accessed 2 Dec 2020. Fukui Iju Navi [Fukui Life Support Guide]. (2020). Fukui-ken no shoukai [Overview of Fukui Prefecture]. https://www.fukui-ijunavi.jp/city_and_town/. Accessed 1 Dec 2020. Fukui Prefecture Office. (2020). Fukuiken no jinko no doukou to shourai mitooshi-Reiwa 2-nen kaiteiban [Changing trends and future outlook of the population in Fukui Prefecture-Revised edition of 2020] released in July. https://www.pref.fukui.lg.jp/doc/seiki/fukui-senryaku_d/fil/12. pdf. Accessed 9 Dec 2020.

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Fukui Prefecture Statistics and Information Department. (2016). Fukui no rekishi, shizen, jinko [History, natural environments, and the demography of Fukui Prefecture]. https://www.pref.fukui. lg.jp/doc/toukeijouhou/hayawakari/haya28_d/fil/chapter1.pdf. Accessed 2 Dec 2020. Fukui Prefecture Statistics and Information Department. (2017). Heisei 27-nen kokusei chosa Fukuiken dokuji shuukei houkokusho: jinko tou kihon shuukeibun [2015 National Census Fukui Prefecture Original Report-The basic population analyses], released in July. https://www.pref. fukui.lg.jp/doc/toukei-jouhou/kokutyou/2015kokusei-dokugi1_d/fil/001.pdf. Accessed 9 Dec 2020. Fukui U-Turn Center (Fukui Life Support Guide). (2020). Fukui no machi wo shiru: Sabaeshi [Understanding municipalities in Fukui Prefecture: Sabae-shi]. https://www.fukui-ijunavi. jp/city_and_town/sabae_city. Accessed 17 Dec 2020. Fukui-ken Rekishi.com (2020). Fukui-ken; Rekishi, Kanko, Midokoro [Fukui Prefecture: History and sightseeing spots]. https://www.fukureki.com/. Accessed 19 Dec 2020. GD Freak. (2020). To-do-fu-ken oyobi shi-ku-cho-son betsu no jinko to setai gurafu pootaru [Portal sites for the population and households by prefecture, and by municipality]. https://jp.gdfreak. com/meta/jp/ppl.html. Accessed 1 Aug 2021. Ikeda-cho Town Office. (2015) Ikeda-cho no bunka to shogaigakushu [Culture and continuing education in Ikeda-cho] https://www.town.ikeda.fukui.jp/kurashi/bunka/index.html. Accessed 23 Dec 2020. Ikeda-cho Town Office. (2016). Fukui-ken Ikeda-cho jinko bijyon [Population vision of Ikeda-cho, Fukui Prefecture] released in March. https://www.town.ikeda.fukui.jp/gyousei/gyousei/1929/p00 2248_d/fil/jinko_vision.pdf. Accessed 26 Dec 2020. Ikeda-cho Town Office. (2017). Ikeda-cho yoran [A handbook of Ikeda-cho]. https://www.town. ikeda.fukui.jp/gyousei/gyousei/1921/p001488_d/fil/tyouseiyouran.pdf. Accessed 24 Dec 2020. Ikeda-cho Town Office. (2020). Fukui-ken Ikeda-cho kanko mura dukuri keikaku [Planning for the creation of tourism based Ikeda-cho], document for the meeting held on the 20th of February. https://www.town.ikeda.fukui.jp/gyousei/gyousei/1929/p002547_d/fil/keikaku.pdf. Accessed 2 Jan 2021. Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles. (2011). Dengaku. https://ala ginrc.nict.go.jp/WikiCorpus/index_E.html. Accessed 24 Dec 2020. JTB Tourism Research & Consulting Co. (2020). Kanko yougo-shu [Dictionary of tourism terminology]. https://www.tourism.jp/tourism-database/glossary/. Accessed 30 Dec 2020. Kodansha International. (1983). Kodansha Encyclopedia of Japan. Tokyo: Kodansha. Kumagai, F. (2018). Chiikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinkou Genshou Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saisei Saku [Declining Population and the Municipal Power in Japan: Policies for Area Revitalization of Small Municipalities]. Kyoto: Minerva-shobo. Kumagai, F. (2020). Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations. Singapore: Springer Nature. Masuda, H. (ed.) (2014). Chihou Shoumetsu [Disappearing Local Regions]. Tokyo: Chukoushinsho. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare [MHLW]. (2018). Heisei 27-nen shi-ku-cho-son betsu seimeihyou no gaikyou [Summary of life expectancy by municipality in 2015]. https://www. mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/life/tdfk15/index.html. Accessed 16 Dec 2020. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare [MHLW]. (2014). Heisei 20-nen-24-nen jinkodotai hokenjyo shi-cho-son betsu toukei [Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008– 2012] released February 13. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/other/hoken14/ index.html. Accessed 16 Dec 2020. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014). Heisei 26-nen jyumin kihondaichou ni motozuku jinkou, jinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and household statistics for the basic resident register as of January 1, 2014]. https://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/ 01gyosei02_02000062.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2016. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2020). Jumin kihon daicho ni motozuku jinko, jinkodotai oyobi setaisuu: Reiwa 2-nen 1-gatsu 1-nichi genzai [Population, vital statistics

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and number of households based on the Basic Resident Register-Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of January 1, 2020], released August 5. https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_s osiki/jichi_gyousei/daityo/jinkou_jinkoudoutai-setaisuu.html. Accessed 17 Dec 2020. Ministry of the Environment. (2015). Junkan Keizai bunseki towa [What is the regional circulation analysis], December 4. https://www.env.go.jp/press/files/jp/28653.pdf. Accessed 30 Dec 2020. Ministry of the Environment. (2016). Dai 4-kai guudo raifu awa-do torikumi shoukai: Kibo no machi purojekuto [Introducing good life award of 2016: Kibo no machi project]. https://www. goodlifeaward.jp/?glaentry=glaentry-4454. Accessed 30 Dec 2020. National Institute of Population and Social Science Research [IPSS]. (2019). Nihon no Setaisuu no Shourai Suikei (To-Do-Fu-Ken betsu Suikei): Heisei 27-nen – Heisei 52-nen [Future estimates of Japanese households: from 2010 to 2040]. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-pjsetai/j/hpjp2019/gaiyo/ gaiyo.pdf, released April 19. Accessed 16 Dec 2020. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2020). Jinko Toukei Shiryoushuu: 2020 [Latest demographic statistics of 2020]. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/ Popular/Popular2020.asp?chap=0. Accessed 16 Dec 2020. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2013). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 22-Heisei 52 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010– 2040]. Population Research Series No.330, December 25. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/bun ken/data/pdf/208521.pdf. Accessed 13 Nov 2017. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2018). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko (Heisei 30-nenn Suikei)-Heisei 30-Heisei 57 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045]. News Release on March 30. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/j/ shicyoson18/1kouhyo/gaiyo.pdf. Accessed 31 Mar 2018. Nikkei BP. (2020). Jinko zougen-ritsu ranking 2020-zenkoku toppu 50, jinkoukibo, to-do-fu-ken betsu [Population increase rates of municipalities in 2020—Top 50 municipalities by population size and by prefecture]. Shin Koumin Renkei Saizensen, August 28 issue. https://project.nikkeibp. co.jp/atclppp/080600025/080600003/. Accessed 17 Dec 2020. PR TIMES. (2015). Fukui-ken Ikeda-cho Kibo no machi projekuto wo sta-to [Launching the Kibo no machi project by Ikeda-cho, Fukui Prefecture] lereased December 2. https://prtimes.jp/main/ html/rd/p/000000001.000016612.html. Accessed 30 Dec 2020. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2020). Jinko suikei (2019-nen 10 gatsu 1 nichi genzai) [Population estimates of Japan, as of October 1, 2019]. Released on April 14, 2020. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/filespage=1&layout=datalist& toukei=00200524&tstat=000000090001&cycle=7&year=20190&month=0&tclass1=000001 011679. Accessed 15 Apr 2020. Takemitsu, M. (2001). Kenminsei no Nihon Chizu [Characteristics of Japan by Prefecture]. Tokyo: Bungei Shunjyu.

Chapter 2

Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations: Shinano Province, Four Regions and Ten Areas

Abstract Nagano Prefecture—along the ancient Tosando of the Goki-Shichido— is made up of the formerly named Shinano Province. It is divided into four regions (Hokushin, Toshin, Chushin, and Nanshin), 10 areas (Hokushin, Nagano, Ueda, Saku, Kita Alps, Matsumoto, Kiso, Suwa, Kamiina, and Minami Shinshu), and comprises 77 municipalities today. Owing to Nagano Prefecture’s diverse ecosystem, each of these 10 areas presents its own complex topographical geological, and sociocultural characteristics. Looking at the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 by prefecture level, Nagano Prefecture stands at about the middle of all the 47 prefectures (ranked 26th: −23.1%; against the national average: −16.3%). However, when we analyze it by municipality, we find a wide range of variations within the prefecture (from the highest of Miyota-machi: −0.6%, to the lowest of Tenryu-mura: −72.2%). The impact of the marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture in 2013 is significant, at 0.001 level (Y = −3.156 + 0.536X, variance explained R2 = 0.394, p = 0.000). In analyzing the municipal power by the municipality, no significant pattern of regional variations is identified. It may be that the individuality of each of the 77 municipalities is historically respected and maintained today. Nevertheless, we found that both Toshin and Nanshin regions seem to reveal a relatively higher rate of annual population sustaining power, and the projected population increase rate. It may be due to the high rate of social population increase by immigration into these regions. In fact, Miyota-machi is located in the Toshin region, and Minamiminowa-mura is in the Nanshin region. We must note, however, that Tenryu-mura is located in the same region as Minamiminowamura, although these two municipalities belong to different areas. Thus, it seems as if geographic factors would be more suitable in determining the municipal power in Nagano Prefecture. Tenryu-mura, having been designated as a disappearing municipality, is active online in efforts to generate the related population with the people residing in the Tokyo metropolitan area by introducing their unique municipal power such as Teizanasu, Nakaisamurai meicha, and the traditional festival of Shimotsuki Kagura. These efforts will hopefully not only increase the related population, but also contribute to developing into the exchange and even the settled population.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. Kumagai, Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II, Population Studies of Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6609-4_2

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2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

Keywords Nagano Prefecture · Shinano Province · Shinshu · Miyota-machi · Minamiminowa-mura · Tenryu-mura · Ecosystem diversity · Chikumagawa and Shinanogawa · NAKAYAMA Shinpei · SHIMAZAKI Toson · Kura no Machi · Anzu no Sato · Nippon Alps Salad Kaido · Related population · Teizanasu · Nakaisamurai meicha · Shimotsuki Kagura · Shinshu/Tenryu Tsunagu Lab

2.1 The Outlook of Nagano Prefecture Let us now move our discussion on shrinking Japan to Nagano Prefecture along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido. Nagano Prefecture is located in central Honshu and bordered by eight prefectures of Niigata, Gunma, Saitama, Yamanashi, Shizuoka, Aichi, Gifu, and Toyama (see Fig. 1.4 in Chap. 1, Vol. I, and Fig. 2.1). It has the largest number of neighboring prefectures in Japan. The area of the prefecture is 13,561 km2 , and its length is about 120 km east to west, and about 212 km north and south. Of all the 47 prefectures in Japan, Nagano is the fourth largest prefecture after Hokkaido, Iwate, and Fukushima prefectures (Nagano Prefecture 2020b). There are high mountains of 3,000 m around Nagano Prefecture, and therefore, the prefecture is called “Japanese Yane” (roof) because of their beautiful resemblance to the Swiss Alps. Major ranges include the Hida, Kiso, and Akaishi Mountains known as the Northern Alps, Central Alps, and Southern Alps. Numerous rivers, including the Chikumagawa,1 Saigawa, Kisogawa, and Tenryugawa flow between the mountains. The Chikumagawa and Saigawa flow into the Sea of Japan, and the Kisogawa and Tenryugawa flow into the Pacific Ocean. The basin (bonchi in Japanese) spreads around the main river: the Saku-bonchi and Nagano-bonchi around the Chikumagawa, the Matsumoto-bonchi around the Saigawa, and the Ina-bonchi

Fig. 2.1 Map of Nagano Prefecture by region, area, and municipality (19 cities, 23 towns, 35 villages = total of 77 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Nagano. Accessed 30 Jan 2021. This map is drawn by the author

2.1 The Outlook of Nagano Prefecture

31

around the Tenryu River. The area around Lake Suwa is the Suwa Basin. The terrain, with an altitude difference of 3,000 m, and the diverse environmental conditions that are affected by both the Sea of Japan-type and Pacific-type climates, foster “ecosystem diversity”2 in Nagano Prefecture (Nagano Prefecture 2019b, 2020b).

2.2 Four Regions and Ten Areas of Nagano Prefecture Known after the Taika Reform of 645 as Shinano Province, today’s Nagano Prefecture is crossed by several major highways linking eastern and western Japan, including the Nakasendo, which was then called the Tosando. The area came under the rule of contending warlords such as the Uesugi and Takeda during the ascendancy of warrior rule, and was divided into small domains during the Edo period (1600–1868). Nagano’s modern name dates from 1871, and the present prefectural boundaries were established in 1876 (Kodansha International 1983). Nagano Prefecture today is made up of the formerly named Shinano Province only, and comprises 77 municipalities (19 cities, 24 towns, and 34 villages). Due to the Great Merger of Heisei,3 the number of municipalities in the prefecture decreased from 120 in 2002 to 77 in 2010. Nagano is commonly divided into four regions, namely the Hokushin, Toshin, Chushin, and Nanshin regions, and each region is subdivided into two or three areas. These four regions, 10 areas, and 77 municipalities are listed below, and numbers in parentheses signify the number of municipalities in each of the regions/areas (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a, b). Hokushin Region (15) Hokushin Area (6): Nakano-shi, Iiyama-shi, Yamanouchi-machi, Kijimadaira-mura, Nozawaonsen-mura, Sakae-mura Nagano Area (9): Nagano-shi, Chikuma-shi, Suzaka-shi, Obuse-machi, Takayama-mura, Iizuna-machi, Shinano-machi, Ogawa-mura, Sakaki-machi Toshin Region (15) Ueda Area (4): Ueda-shi, Toumi-shi, Aoki-mura, Nagawa-machi Saku Area (11): Saku-shi, Komoro-shi, Karuizawa-machi, Miyota-machi, Tateshina-machi, Koumi-machi, Kawakami-mura, Minamimaki-mura, Minamiaiki-mura, Kitaaiki-mura, Sakuho-machi Chushin Region (19) Kita Alps Area (5): Oomachi-shi, Ikeda-machi, Matsukawa-mura, Hakuba-mura, Otari-mura Matsumoto Area (8): Matsumoto-shi, Shiojiri-shi, Azumino-shi, Omi-mura, Ikusaka-mura, Yamagata-mura, Asahi-mura, Chikuhoku-mura. Kiso Area (6): Agematsu-machi, Kiso-machi, Nagiso-machi, Kiso-mura, Ootakimura, Ookuwa-mura Nanshin Region (28) Suwa Area (6): Suwa-shi, Chino-shi, Okaya-shi, Shimosuwa-machi, Fujimi-

32

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

machi, Hara-mura Kamiina Area (8): Ina-shi, Komagane-shi, Tatuno-machi, Minowa-machi, Iijima-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, Nakagawa-mura, Miyada-mura Minami Shinshu Area (14): Iida-shi, Ooshika-mura, Takamori-machi, Matsukawa-machi, Toyooka-mura, Takagi-mura, Anan-cho, Achi-mura, Tenryumura, Shimojyo-mura, Yasuoka-mura, Urugi-mura, Neba-mura, Hiraya-mura. Owing to the ecosystem diversity of Nagano Prefecture, each of these 10 areas has outstanding characteristics different from any other areas within a single prefecture of Nagano. Although comprising a single province of Shinano (equals to Shinshu), this uniqueness in regional variations is the major reason for choosing Nagano Prefecture along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido for our extensive studies of regional variations in shrinking Japanese society. Thus, let us discuss the characteristics of each of these 10 areas briefly.

2.2.1 Hokushin Area Six municipalities in the northern–eastern part of the Hokushin region belong to the Hokushin area. The Hokushin area has one of the highest rates of snowfall in Japan, located in the northernmost part of Nagano Prefecture. With the advantages of a snowy climate, it has developed as a base for winter sports such as Shiga-kogen (heights), Nozawa-onsen (hot spring), and Madarao-kogen. The area is also known as a tourist destination blessed with hot-spring resources such as Yudanaka, Shibu, and Nozawa Nakano-shi, which is famous for the Dobina no sato (village of clay dolls),4 and is the hometown of the composer NAKAYAMA Shinpei.5 Iiyama-shi is a castle town of Okushinano, with many temples. Local artisans who make traditional crafts such as Buddhist altars and Uchiyama paper are highly recognized. In addition, agricultural products like grapes, apples, and mushrooms are actively grown. The area has received international recognition as the home of the 1998 Winter Olympic Games, and efforts are being made to create a year-round resort area that includes canoeing and paragliding (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.2 Nagano Area The remaining nine municipalities of the Hokushin region are collectively called the Nagano area. The Nagano area is surrounded by beautiful mountains on all sides, such as Joshinetsu National Park, centered around Zenkojidaira, where both the Chikumagawa and Saigawa meet. Blessed with cultural properties and historic sites, the area has developed mainly in Nagano-shi, the capital of Nagano Prefecture. Nagano-shi is a Monzen-machi (a town built originally in front of a temple) that developed around Zenkoji temple. Kawanakajima, which is famous for its ancient

2.2 Four Regions and Ten Areas of Nagano Prefecture

33

battlefields, and Matsushiro, a castle town of Sanada 100,000-koku, are now parts of Nagano-shi, and have a population of over 380,000. Suzaka-shi, being called “Kura no Machi,”6 is a castle town that retains the old townscape. Chikuma-shi is Japan’s number one “Anzu no Sato”7 (town of apricots). There are plenty of sightseeing spots in the area. Various industries in the area—centered on manufacturing, such as electrical machinery, general machinery, foodstuffs, and printing—prosper. In addition, the high value-added agriculture and forestry continue to develop (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.3 Ueda Area The Ueda area comprises five municipalities south of the Nagano area and the northwestern part of the Toshin region. Located in the middle part of the Chikumagawa in the eastern part of Nagano Prefecture, the Ueda area has a mild topography and climate. Ueda-shi, the center of the area, is the town where SANADA Masayuki built the castle in 1583. In addition, there are many old shrines and temples in Shiodadaira, where the Hojo clan settled in the Kamakura period, and it is called the “Kamakura in Shinshu.“ In the Ueda area, there are other historical townscapes like Unno-juku and Wada-juku, hot springs such as Bessho Onsen and Maruko Onsenkyo, Sugadaira Kogen, and Yunomaru Kogen. In this area, various types of industries have been developed in a well-balanced manner, such as fresh agricultural products like highland vegetables, tourist-resort-related industries that make the most of nature and culture, and manufacturing industries centering around electrical machinery and transportation machinery. In addition, the cultivation of wine grapes is increasing year by year due to the relatively low rainfall and long daylight hours throughout the year. Along with this, the concentration of wineries is gradually increasing, and it has been certified as a wide area special zone of the Chikumagawa Wine Valley. As a result, wines produced in this area are getting increasingly wide attention (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.4 Saku Area The rest of the 11 municipalities of the Toshin region comprise the Saku area. Located at the eastern gateway of Nagano Prefecture, the Saku area is blessed with abundant nature, facing Mt. Asama to the north, and Mt. Tateshina and Mt. Yatsugatake to the south. This area stretches along the Chikumagawa that flows from the headwaters of Mt. Kobushigatake. This area is popular as a tourist resort with many tourist resources such as Karuizawa, a famous international resort, Yachiho Highlands, Shirakoma Pond, and Lake Matsubara (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

34

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

Saku-shi was a transportation hub where the Saku-Koshu Kaido (highway) and the Nakasendo intersect. The clear air of the plateau is suitable for space observation, and there are observatories in Usuda and Nobeyama. Komoro-shi, which prospered as a castle town and a post town on the Hokkoku Kaido, is also known for the poems of SHIMAZAKI Toson. In agriculture, high-quality highland vegetables such as cabbage and lettuce are especially well known. High-tech industries are becoming more integrated, centered on electrical machinery, general machinery, and precision machinery (Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.5 Kita Alps Area Five municipalities in the northern part of the Chushin region make up the Kita Alps area. Located at the foot of the Northern Alps in the northwestern part of Nagano Prefecture, the northern part is one of the heaviest snowfall areas in Japan. This area, which consists of Oomachi-shi and Kitaazumi County, is also famous for the “Shionomichi”8 that once carried salt from the Sea of Japan. There are many ski resorts, including Hakuba and Happoone, which was the setting for the Nagano Winter Olympics in 1998, and the area has been blessed with tourism resources such as hot springs and lakes, and has developed as a mecca for mountain tourism. The central city in the area, Oomachi-shi, is the gateway to the Tateyama Kurobe Alpine Route. Oomachi-shi is also known as a museum city with many unique museums. In agriculture and forestry as well, cooperation with tourism and the processing and sales of agricultural products are flourishing. In addition to traditional products such as handmade soba and oyaki,9 new specialty products made of herbs are being manufactured. Furthermore, the area has been fostering various advanced technology industries (see Fig. 2.1 and Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.6 Matsumoto Area The Matsumoto area is made up of eight municipalities located in the middle part of the Chushin region, south of the Kita Alps area. The Matsumoto area, which extends from the foot of the Northern Alps to the central part of Nagano Prefecture, is surrounded by famous tourist destinations. They are, for example, Utsukushigahara Plateau, Kamikochi-Norikura Plateau, and Azumino-shi, centering around Matsumoto-shi, with a variety of hot springs, museums, and historical heritage (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a). Matsumoto-shi, the central city in the area, is a castle town that was developed under the Matsumoto Castle, where Shinano Kokufu (ancient provincial capital) was located in the olden days. Shiojiri-shi was a post town where Nakasendo and Kitaguni

2.2 Four Regions and Ten Areas of Nagano Prefecture

35

Nishikaido intersect. Among other towns and villages in the Matsumoto area, there are many unique community developments such as the Nippon Alps Salad Kaido10 and Mandala-no-sho.11 As for industries, the Matsumoto area boasts the prefecture’s leading manufacturing industries such as electrical machinery, general machinery, foodstuffs, precision machinery, and pharmaceuticals. In addition, fruits such as apples, grapes, and watermelons, and the distinctive agricultural products wasabi (Japanese horseradish), and nijimasu (rainbow trout) are also famous products of this area (Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.7 Kiso Area The Kiso area comprises six municipalities in the southern part of the Chushin region, being located between the Central Alps and the Ontake Mountains. At the beginning of SHIMAZAKI Toson’s novel “Yoake-mae” (Before the Dawn), the phrase “Kisoji wa subete yama no naka dearu” (“The Kiso Road is all in the mountains”) is very famous. Indeed, all the roads in the Kiso area are surrounded by mountains except for the slight basins of the Kiso and Narai Rivers. It is covered with beautiful forests such as cypress (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a). In this area, former Nakasendo post stations such as Tsumago-juku12 have been preserved as a cultural heritage, retaining their old appearance and attracting many tourists. In addition, Mt. Ontake, which has been worshiped since ancient times, Nezame no Toko,13 and Kaida Kogen, the home of Kiso horses, are also famous as tourist destinations. As for the industry, forestry that makes use of abundant local forest resources has been flourishing for a long time. In addition, many traditional woodcrafts such as Kiso lacquerware have a long history and have been handed down (Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.8 Suwa Area Six municipalities in the northern part of the Nanshin region are called the Suwa area. Lake Suwa, at an elevation of 759 m, is the largest lake in Nagano Prefecture. The Suwa region has a varied natural environment such as Yatsugatake, Tateshina Highland, and Kirigamine Plateau, centered on Lake Suwa. Since this area is close to the Tokyo metropolitan area, it is popular as a tourist destination. In addition to natural beauty, there are lakeside Suwa and Tateshina hot springs, and in recent years various museums have opened in this area. It is because the area prospered as a Shukuba-machi (town originally built around a temple), and a post town centered on the Suwa Taisha Shrine (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a). The Suwa area is also one of the most successful industrial areas in Shinshu. In the Meiji era, the silk-reeling industry developed mainly in Okaya; after WWII,

36

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

the precision machinery industry developed in its place. The abundant water and clear air are suitable for precision machinery and have made a name for the area as “Switzerland of the East.“ Today, industries using highly advanced technologies such as electrical machinery and general machinery are concentrated throughout Suwa-shi, Chino-shi, and Okaya-shi (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.9 Kamiina Area Eight municipalities in the middle part of the Nanshin region make up the Kamiina area. The Tenryugawa runs between the Southern Alps and the Central Alps. There are various cities and rural areas on the river terraces of the basin. It is a region blessed with natural beauty, easily accessed by a 2.5-h ride from Tokyo and Nagoya on the Chuo Expressway (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a). In the olden days, Ina-shi was a post town that developed as a transportation hub where highways intersect. Komagane-shi has been popular as a trailhead for the Central Alps. Takatoo,14 an old castle town in Ina-shi, is known as a famous tourist spot for Kohiganzakura15 in Takatoo Castle Ruins Park, which has “the most beautiful cherry blossoms in the world.” It is a mountain castle town rich in many cultural properties, and historic sites (Ina City Office 2020). On the industrial side, advanced technology industries—such as electrical, precision, and general machinery, and R&D companies—are growing in the Kamiina area. In addition, agricultural industries such as rice cultivation, livestock, fruit trees, and flowers flourish by utilizing the vast agricultural land of the Tenryugawa terrace (Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2.10 Minami Shinshu Area The Minami Shinshu area is located at the southern gateway to Nagano Prefecture. This area consists of 14 municipalities with only one city (Iida-shi), and Shimoina District comprises three towns and 10 villages. The area is blessed with a mild climate and magnificent nature overlooking the Southern Alps (see Fig. 2.1, Nagano Prefecture 2020a). Iida-shi is a beautiful castle town called Little Kyoto. The row of apple trees is popular among citizens and tourists. The unique rock formations of Tenryu Gorge, created by the flow of the Tenryugawa, are one of the most scenic spots in the valley. The area is also famous for abundant natural resources such as hot springs and canyons. It is also a treasure trove of folk performing arts where many traditional performing arts have been handed down for generations, such as the Niino Snow Festival,16 Ooshika Kabuki,17 the Toyama Shimotsuki Festival,18 and Imada Dolls (Iida City Museum 2021, Nagano Prefecture 2020a).

2.2 Four Regions and Ten Areas of Nagano Prefecture

37

In addition to traditional local industries such as Mizuhiki,19 industries that make use of new, highly advanced technologies like electrical and precision machinery are growing. Taking advantage of the mild climate, the area is a cradle for highquality agricultural products like pears, persimmons, tea, and Japanese beef (Nagano Prefecture 2020a). From a brief description of each of these 10 areas in Nagano Prefecture, it is clear that geography, climate, and culture differ from one area to the other.

2.3 Brief History of Nagano Prefecture Two thousand five hundred years ago, rice cultivation was introduced to Japan from the Asian continent, and the Yayoi period (10 BC-AD 3) began. In the Chikumagawa basin of the second century, there arose a unique culture in which pottery was painted red, called “Akai doki no kuni” (state of red pottery). In the middle of the fourth century, influential people with strong ties to the Yamato Dynasty built Mori Shogun Tsuka Kofun (tomb) (today’s Chikuma-shi), and Kawayanagi Shogun Tsuka Kofun (today’s Nagano-shi) (Nagano Prefecture 2020b). In 645, under the Ritsuryo (laws and ordinance) system, Shinano Province (also known as Shinshu) was established as one of the 68 provinces. Shinano is divided into 10 counties. Under the Kokushi (provincial governor in the Ritsuryo system) dispatched by the government, the Gunji (district governor in the Ritsuryo period), who was selected from the influential local tribes, oversaw the politics of each county. From the Yashiro archaeological site in Chikuma-shi, a wooden tag called a “mokkan,” with the orders of the Kokushi and Gunji at that time, was excavated (Nagano Prefecture 2020b). In Shinano, where high-quality horses were raised, the samurai wielded their power as powerful cavalrymen. KISO Yoshinaka, who raised troops in Shinano during the Genpei Kassen (War),20 overthrew the Taira (Heishi) clan and became the forerunner of the establishment of the samurai administration of the Kamakura Shogunate in 1192. MINAMOTO no Yoritomo, who established the Kamakura Shogunate, chose the path of coexistence between the court noble and samurai families. Then, the Shinano samurai corps came under the control of influential gokenins (lower-ranking vassals) from the Kanto region. When the Hojo clan, the governor of the Kamakura Shogunate, came to rule Shinano as a guardian, the Zen sect culture called “Kamakura in Shinshu” flourished in Shioda Plain, where the Hojo clan lived. When the Kamakura Shogunate collapsed (1333) and the Nanbokucho (1333–1392) and Muromachi periods began, local ruling families such as the Suwa and Murakami clans, in collaboration with the Kamakura Shogunate, resisted the ruling of the Muromachi Shogunate and the Shugo (governor) Ogasawara in Kyoto. Even in the Warring States period (1467–1590), the Sengoku daimyo from Shinano did not gain power, and the Takeda clan of Kai (today’s Yamanashi Prefecture) and the Uesugi clan of Echigo faced a fierce conflict over the ruling of Shinano (Nagano Prefecture 2020b).

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2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

In the Edo period, the “hei noh bunri” (separation of soldiers and farmers) policy was enforced. That is, the daimyo gathered samurai, merchants, and craftsmen who were necessary for the daimyo to live in the castle town. On the other hand, peasants lived in the village. In this way, the village of the early modern period, different from the Middle Ages, was established, and the castle town started to develop. Highways such as the Nakasendo improved. The wholesaler located at the post station monopolized transportation, but in Shinano, it became popular for farmers to deliver horses and cows directly from the shipper to their destination. This is called Nakama. The industries in various parts of Shinano developed in connection with the activities of Nakama (Nagano Prefecture 2020b). The opening of the country at the end of the Edo period was an opportunity to connect the local economy of Nagano Prefecture to the world. In particular, raw silk, which gives off a silvery luster, played a major role in expanding people’s horizons from Japan to overseas. When exchanges with foreign countries began, Nagano Prefecture was the first to adopt mechanized silk reeling and focus on technological development and improvement of sericulture and silkworm seeding. Consequently, Nagano Prefecture became Japan’s number one “silk thread kingdom.” As represented by the Katakura group, the silk reeling industry in Nagano Prefecture has expanded outside the prefecture and abroad, and the prefecture became the center of silk reeling in Japan (Nagano Prefecture 2020b). The enhancement of sericulture education is a factor in the development of the sericulture industry in Nagano Prefecture. Chiisagata Silk School (currently Ueda Higashi High School) and Ueda Silk College (currently Shinshu University Faculty of Textile Science) were opened. On the other hand, the development of the silk-reeling industry raises issues such as working conditions, wages, and the living conditions of female workers. At the same time, movements developed demanding improvements in their working conditions (Nagano Prefecture 2020b). In 1945, with the end of WWII, Japan reestablished itself as a democratic country. In the midst of the devastation caused by the war, movements to create a new society began in various parts of Nagano Prefecture. Due to the vigorous economic growth that began in the 1960s, commerce and industry developed dramatically in the prefecture. After WWII, Nagano Prefecture set the goal of being an “industrial prefecture,” and actively promoted industrialization policies. As a result, the Okaya-Suwa region, once the center for the silk reeling industry in Nagano Prefecture, has developed as the center of the precision machinery industry which requires clean environments. In fact, Nagano Prefecture is blessed with clean air, water, and a sprawling natural environment. Thus, Nagano Prefecture has come to be called the “Switzerland of the East” today. Agricultural infrastructure was improved and mechanized in rural areas. At the same time, however, depopulation progressed due to the outflow of population to urban areas. On the other hand, industrial development has caused the destruction of nature and pollution of the environment. For Nagano Prefecture, where the area is divided by mountains and valleys, improving the transportation network was a major issue. The opening of the National Expressway and the Shinkansen bullet train, and

2.3 Brief History of Nagano Prefecture

39

various advanced means of ICT, are bringing about major changes to Nagano Prefecture itself, and also the prefecture’s relationship to other parts of Japan such as Tokyo (Nagano Prefecture Industrial Labor Department 2021, Nagano Prefecture 2020b).

2.4 Population of Nagano Prefecture Today We discussed a brief history of Nagano Prefecture, and noted that the industrialization has brought depopulation in the prefecture. Thus, let us study the changing population of Nagano Prefecture, as to where it has been occurring, and why it has been happening.

2.4.1 The Total Population of Nagano Prefecture In 1920, when the first national census in Japan was conducted, the total population of Nagano Prefecture was 1.563 million, and it continued to increase to the year 2000 (2.215 million). Since then, it has continuously declined to 2.099 million in 2015 (ranking at the 16th of all the 47 prefectures). This is a decrease of 53,645 (−2.5%, ranking the 28th in Japan) from the previous census survey in 2010 of 2,152,449 (Nagano Prefecture 2016). In other words, the rate of decrease is the 20th largest among all the 47 prefectures. The population, however, is 8,146 (0.4%) higher than the 2015 population predicted by the IPSS based on the census up to 2010. The most recent statistics of the total population in Nagano shows further decline to 2,031,795 people (male: 992,023, female: 1,039,772; and 833,712 households) in January 2021 (Nagano Prefecture 2021a, b, c). Furthermore, it is projected to decline to 1,615,000 by 2045, which means its population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 will be − 23.1%. The projected population increase rates of −23.1% rank 26th among all the 47 prefectures (the projected national average is −16.27%). Thus, we can say that the projected shrinking rate of the population in Nagano Prefecture is about the middle of all the prefectures in Japan (IPSS 2018). However, we must remember that these statistics are for Nagano Prefecture as a whole, not each of the 77 municipalities. As seen in Fig. 2.2, there exist clear variations in the projected population increase rates by the municipality from 2010 to 2040. When we analyzed the projected population increase rates by the municipality from 2010 to 2040 we found that Minamiminowa-mura (7.3%) of the Kamiina area in the Nanshin region is the highest, and the lowest score on this municipal power21 measurement is Tenryu-mura (−64.0%, a shockingly high decrease rate), of MinamiShinshu area of the Nanshin region. The location of these municipalities in Nagano Prefecture is specified in Fig. 2.2. A detailed discussion of the municipal power of Nagano Prefecture will follow later in this chapter (see Sect. 2.6; IPSS 2013, Nagano Prefecture 2019a, 2021a).

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2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

Fig. 2.2 Projected population increase rates by the municipality for Nagano Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool, this figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 30 Jan 2021

2.4.2 Population by Municipality in Nagano Prefecture The national census of 2015 reports that among all the 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture, Nagano-shi has the largest population of 377,598, followed by Matsumoto-shi (243,293) and Ueda-shi (156,827). On the other hand, Hirayamura (484) of the Minami Shinshu area has the smallest population, followed by Urugi-mura (575) of the Minami Shinshu area and Kitaaiki-mura (774) of the Saku area (Nagano Prefecture 2016). Furthermore, of all the 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture, the proportion of the municipalities whose population is on the decline are 44.2% (34 municipalities) in the 2010 national census, and such proportion increased to 57.2% (44 municipalities) in the 2015 national census. Similarly, the population increase rates in the 2010 national census range from the lowest of −3.0% (Iida-shi) to the highest of +6.8% (Minamiminowa-mura). However, the rates from 2010 to the 2015 national census revealed that the lowest of −4.0% (Ina-shi) to the highest of +3.6% (Minamiminowa-mura). These statistics indicate that all in all the population decline has been accelerated throughout Nagano Prefecture. In addition, the number of municipalities with a high rate of decrease continues to increase (Nagano Prefecture 2016). Thus, we can say that the depopulation in Nagano Prefecture has been accelerated in both the population decrease rate and the number of the population decreasing municipalities.

2.4 Population of Nagano Prefecture Today

41

Table 2.1 Municipal power of Nagano Prefecture: Hokushin Region, Toshin Region, Chushin Region, Nanshin Region, Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura Municipality

Generational family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2015 (‰)a

Annual populationsustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rate 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average Nagano Prefecture average

13.29

5.10

−0.19

−16.3

24.27

4.60

−0.49

−23.1

Hokushin region (15)

27.42

3.75

−1.25

−41.7

Toshin region (15)

20.69

3.91

−0.82

−32.4

Chushin region (19)

24.13

3.68

−1.15

−38.4

Nanshin region (28)

24.60

4.46

−0.95

−32.5

Miyota-machi (Toshin region)

14.09

6.23

1.03

−0.6

Minamiminowa-mura (Nanshin region)

17.20

4.26

0.97

−1.8

Tenryu-mura (Nanshin region)

12.23

4.44

−2.83

−72.2

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2020), b MIAC (2014), c IPSS (2018). This table is compiled and constructed by the author

2.4.3 Birth, Total Fertility Rates, Marriage, and Divorce According to the “2013–2017 vital statistics of health center by municipality” (MHLW 2020), the average number of babies born in Nagano Prefecture from 2013 to 2017 was 17,250 in a year. This equals 8.1 (national average 8.4) per 1,000 people, which is the 27th out of 47 prefectures. The total fertility rate (TFR), which estimates the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime during her procreation period, is 1.57 (national average 1.43). Furthermore, the rate for marriages and divorces in Nagano Prefecture in 2015 is 4.6 per 1,000 people (national average 5.1) and 1.83 (national average 1.81), respectively (see Table 2.1, IPSS 2020). These vital statistics of Nagano Prefecture indicate that marriages and childbirths in the prefecture are likely to occur less frequently than in other parts of Japan. Hence, we are not encouraged to expect to see the projected population increase rate for Nagano Prefecture.

2.4.4 Older Adult Population and Living Alone As for the population of Nagano prefecture by age group in 2015, the child population (0–14) is 269,752 (13.0% of the total population), the working population (15–64) is 1,186,865 (57.0%), and the older adult population (65 and over) is 626,085 (30.1%). Compared to the previous national census in 2010, the older adult population in 2015 has increased by 3.6% in both Nagano prefecture and the whole country, but Nagano Prefecture is more than 10 years ahead of the projected aging population of the national average of Japan in 2025 (30.0%). This is the first time that the

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2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

proportion of the older adult population in the total population in Nagano Prefecture has exceeded 30% since the national census began in 1920 (see Table 2.2, Nagano Prefecture 2016). In addition, according to the latest “Life tables by city, ward, town and village in 2015” (released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on April 17, 2018), the average life expectancy of Nagano Prefecture in 2015 (life expectancy at birth) is 81.75 years for men ranking the 2nd longest of all the 47 prefectures (the national average: 80.8 years), and 87.67 years for women the longest among the total prefectures (the national average: 87.0 years) (MHLW 2018). Healthy life expectancy at birth22 (HALE, kenko jyumyo) of the people in Nagano Prefecture in 2015 is Table 2.2 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Nagano Prefecture, Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old–old 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Nagano Prefecture

10.7

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

22.5

18.2

15.1

13.8

13.0

11.3

10.5

Working population 15–64

65.4

65.7

63.4

59.7

57.0

54.8

52.2

48.0

Older adults 65+ population

12.1

16.1

21.5

26.5

30.1

33.9

37.3

41.7

4.3

6.6

9.6

14.2

15.7

20.6

23.0

25.2

Old–old 75+ population Miyota-machi

10.3

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.1

20.8

16.4

15.1

13.9

11.7

11.0

Working population 15–64

66.1

65.2

65.7

62.7

60.1

57.5

54.2

50.1

Older adults 65+ population

10.7

14.1

17.9

22.2

26.1

30.8

34.9

39.1

3.9

5.8

8.0

11.8

12.9

17.6

20.8

23.3

Old–old 75+ population Minamiminowa-mura

10.9

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

24.3

20.0

16.5

16.1

16.0

15.6

14.7

14.4

Working population 15–64

65.5

66.9

67.7

64.0

61.4

59.7

57.8

53.0

Older adults 65+ population

10.2

13.1

15.9

19.8

22.5

24.7

27.6

32.6

3.5

5.0

7.1

9.8

10.9

14.4

15.9

17.8

Old–old 75+ population Tenryu-mura

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

16.7

11.7

7.4

6.2

5.8

5.1

5.5

5.8

Working population 15–64

64.2

57.7

49.0

39.8

35.2

31.2

30.6

32.1

Older adults 65+ population

19.0

30.6

43.6

54.1

59.0

63.7

63.9

62.1

6.9

13.4

22.0

34.3

39.8

44.8

48.0

46.6

Old–old 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSS (2018)

2.4 Population of Nagano Prefecture Today

43

the longest for both men and women; 81.0 years for men (the national average: 79.8 years), and 84.9 years for women (the national average: 84.0 years). Furthermore, the medical expenses for the older adults per capita in 2018 were 831,187 Yen (the national average: 943,082 Yen) ranking the eighth smallest of all the 47 prefectures in Japan (Nagano Prefecture 2021c). These statistics are evidence for Nagano Prefecture as one of the healthiest and longevity prefectures in Japan. One of the contributing factors for the longevity of the people in Nagano Prefecture would be highly advanced medical care programs for the older adult population that the prefecture provides. Well-developed welfare programs for older adults in Nagano prefecture also facilitates them to be in the labor force. In fact, the rate for the labor force participation of the older adults in Nagano Prefecture is the highest of all the 47 prefectures for both the young–old of 65–74 years old (47.0% vs. the national average 38.3%), and the old–old of 75 years old and over (15.7% vs. the national average: 10.4%) (Nagano Prefecture 2021c). Concerning older adults in Nagano Prefecture, we must note that the proportion of living alone has been increasing (2010: 8.7%; and 2015: 10.5%). In addition, of the total living alone households in Nagano Prefecture in 2015 (224,390 households), more than one-third (37.5%) is comprised of living-alone older adult households, 5.3% higher than the national average (IPSS 2019, Nagno Prefecture 2016). Perhaps, factors contributing to the high rate of older adults living alone in Nagano Prefecture would be such factors as the high rate of aging, and longevity. As long as these living alone older adults are healthy and active in their daily activities, there would not be any problem. In case of emergency, however, they are likely to be isolated from the community, especially in remote regions of the countryside. Thus, it is suggested to develop community cooperative relationship programs among the residents.

2.4.5 Foreign Residents in Nagano Prefecture According to the Basic Resident Register conducted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication, the number of foreign residents in Nagno Prefecture has been on the rise in recent years, however, in 2020 it became the first decrease in six years to 35,777 foreign residents (−1,756 people, or −4.7% from the previous year). Of the total foreign residents in Nagano Prefecture in 2020 Chinese people constitute nearly a quarter (24.4%) followed by Vietnams (14.5%), Brazilians (13.6%), Filipinos (13.0%), Koreans in Japan23 (8.8%), Thais (6.4%), and others (18.3%). Vietnams are the only group of foreign residents whose number had increased (5,188 people, increase of 466 people, +9.9%) from the previous year in 2019 (Nagano Prefecture & Passport Division 2021). When we look at the status of residence in Japan, these foreign residents in Nagano Prefecture are divided by permanent residents (13,320 people, accounting for 37.2% of the total), followed by technical intern training (6,166 people, 17.2% of the total), permanent residents (3,742 people, 10.5% of the total), and Japanese spouses (3,195

44

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

people, 8.9% of the total), Specified Skill category from the previous year) for Specified Skill No. 1, which was newly established (from April 2019) due to the revision of the Input Control Law (1,259 3.5% of the total) (Nagano Prefecture & Passport Division 2021). Foreign residents in Nagano Prefecture constitute a small proportion of the total population of the prefecture in 2020 (35,777 foreign residents: 1.73% of the total population of 2,072,080 people in Nagano Prefecture). These foreign residents in Nagano Prefecture tend to reside in large cities in the prefecture such as Nagano-shi (11.3%), Matsumoto-shi (11.1%), Ueda-shi (10.6%), Iida-shi (6.1%), Ina-shi (5.0%), Shiojiri-shi (3.6%), Saku-shi (3.6%), Suwa-shi (3.5%), Azumino-shi (3.4%), and Chino-shi (2.7%). The proportion of foreign residents in these ten cities makes up nearly one-third (60.9%) of the total foreign resident population in Nagano Prefecture (Nagano Prefecture & Passport Division 2021). It seems as if foreign residents in Nagano Prefecture are not necessarily forming any large concentration in specific regions. As it has been discussed by the present author the impact of the foreign resident in Japan will become an integral force for the revitalization of Japanese communities in the future (Kumagai 2018, 2020). The decline in the number of foreign residents in Nagano Prefecture in 2020 from the previous year is most likely to be affected by the coronavirus pandemic. It is hoped, therefore, the number of foreign workers in Nagano Prefecture will increase when the coronavirus pandemic is ceased, and expect to become the integral force for the economic recovery.

2.4.6 Immigration to Nagano Prefecture Nagano Prefecture ranked first in the 2021 edition of “Prefectures to Move To” in the February issue of “Book of Living in the Country” (Takarajima-sha 2021).24 In fact, Nagano Prefecture has been ranked first for 15 consecutive years since 2006. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, people’s interest in living and working in the countryside is more intense than ever before. Why, then, does Nagano Prefecture attract people to move there? We can raise four possible reasons (Ito 2021). First, Nagano Prefecture is easy to access from Tokyo and/or Nagoya by various forms of transportation, such as Hokuriku Shinkansen bullet train, highway bus, limited express Azusa, and a magnetically levitated train (maglev train) expected to operate beginning in 2027. Second, Nagano Prefecture has as many as 77 municipalities, enabling each municipality to maintain and develop its own unique areal community and culture. After the Great Merger of Heisei, Nagano Prefecture is where the largest number of municipalities remains, except for Hokkaido, with 19 cities, 23 towns, and 35 villages. The ratio of villages to the number of municipalities is 45.5%, which is the highest in the whole country. The reasons for this are: (1) mountainous geography brought many different areal cultures and histories as discussed earlier in this volume, (2) the people are somewhat socially isolated from one another (3) the industrial structure is mainly agricultural, and (4) each area has a strong sense of independence and

2.4 Population of Nagano Prefecture Today

45

cohesion. For these reasons, Nagano Prefecture is trying to establish the identity of each municipality so that each can survive without its uniqueness being destroyed, or without being abandoned due to the merger of cities, towns, and villages. As a result, the region retains its unique historic appearance and culture, and this attracts the people who wish to immigrate to the area. Third, Nagano Prefecture offers options for employment, and people can work in a variety of ways. For example, the “workation”—enjoying vacations while working in a resort area—has recently become a popular lifestyle in Japan. There are a lot of coworking spaces in the workplace, and freelancers can work comfortably. Furthermore, due to declining fertility and aging population, industries (many of them in Nagano Prefecture are small in size) lack human resources, and therefore, workers are very much welcome. Fourth, Nagano Prefecture has abundant subsidies to promote immigration. For example, there is a system called the “Trial Nagano” for ICT personnel considering moving into the prefecture. That is, the municipality subsidizes coworking space usage fees, transportation expenses, and housing expenses during that period for about half a year. Since Nagano Prefecture has a long history of welcoming immigrants to the prefecture, each municipality has provided unique programs for subsidies. Examples of subsidies are new housing assistance, used-housing purchase assistance, free medical, free school lunch, and child welfare according to the number of children; in addition, companies are also willing to pay some money for employees’ dependent allowances. However, it is also true that there are some drawbacks to living in Nagano Prefecture. The annual income is lower than in the metropolitan Tokyo area; the cost of living is low, but costs for car maintenance and heating are high, the winter is cold with a substantial amount of snowfalls, and social interaction in the countryside is conservative and troublesome for townspeople who are not used to interacting this way (Human Index 2020). In order to increase the popularity of the area, Nagano Prefecture has been enforcing five promotional programs. They are as follows (Nagano Prefecture 2021b): First, the Country Living Paradise Shinshu Promotion Council was established in collaboration with the prefecture, municipalities, and private organizations. It has formulated the “Basic Policy for Promoting Shinshu Living,” and is working to attract migrants to Nagano Prefecture. Second, the Nagano Prefecture office sends full-time immigration counselors to Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka, and holds immigration seminars to share the appeal of Nagano Prefecture. (Due to the coronavirus pandemic, all 19 seminars in 2020 were held online.) Third, company recruitment personnel held online seminars on “Tenshoku (change job) Nagano” to directly introduce the company to those who want to move to the prefecture. Fourth, a “Living and Working in Shinshu” fair was held online for the first time on January 30 and 31, 2021. The fair was very successful in providing information

46

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

on living and working in Nagano Prefecture to those interested in migrating to the prefecture (https://shinsyu-iju-fair.smout.jp/). Finally, the Nagano Prefecture Office is expanding the kankei jinko25 (related population) that is connected to Shinshu. Such people will carry out activities that lead to an interest in Nagano Prefecture, and to the resolution of regional issues through collaboration between the region and urban residents.

2.4.7 Households in Nagano Prefecture The number of kin-family households in Nagano Prefecture in 2015 is 805,279, an increase of 12,448 households compared to the 2010 census (792,831 households). The total number of household members is 2,055,528, a decrease of 60,886 from 2010 (2,111,414). Thus, the number of people per household is 2.55, which is a decrease of 0.11 from 2010 (2.66). The number of people per household tends to be lower than the national average (2.33) in municipalities with a small population, and the number of older adults living alone is increasing in recent years (Nagano Prefecture 2016).

2.5 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power: Nagano Prefecture, Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura Let us now discuss Nagano Prefecture’s municipal power of household type, marriage, population-sustaining, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045. These indicators will be compared to and contrasted with the selected municipalities of Miyota-machi of the Saku area in the Toshin region, Minamiminowamura of the Kamiina area of the Nanshin region, and Tenryu-mura of the Minami Shinshu area in the Nanshin region (for the location of these three municipalities, refer to Fig. 2.2). The reasons for selecting these three municipalities are based on the projected population increase rate from 2010 to 2040, and from 2015 to 2045 as well (IPSS 2013, 2018). Minamiminowa-mura has the highest population increase rate on the 2010–2040 scale (7.3%), while Miyota-machi has the highest on the 2015–2045 scale (−0.6%), and Tenryu-mura has the lowest on both scales (−64.0%, −72.2%). Previous studies by this author found that identifying and analyzing municipal powers help the people of the municipality make the best use of them and reduce the possibility of becoming a shrinking society. At the same time, by identifying the municipal power of negative population increase shows what municipal power should be capitalized upon to prevent population shrinking (Kumagai 2018, 2020).

2.5 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining …

47

Looking at the generational family household in 2015, we notice that, on average, nearly a quarter of all the households in Nagano Prefecture (24.27%) are multigenerational family households, which is significantly higher than the Japanese national average (13.29%). In addition, we notice that the rate of multigenerational households in the Hokushin region is higher, and that of the Toshin region is lower than the other three regions in Nagano Prefecture. However, the other three indicators on municipal powers do not follow a similar pattern. This indicates that in Nagano Prefecture it might not be appropriate to discuss the municipal power by region (see Table 2.1). In other words, any significant pattern of regional variations on the municipal power cannot be identified. It may be because the individuality of each of the 77 municipalities is respected and kept today as we have discussed earlier. When we look at these indicators on the municipal power by region, we can point out some characteristics. That is, in Nagano Prefecture, both Toshin and Nanshin regions, on average, seem to reveal a relatively higher rate of annual population sustaining power, and the projected population increase rate. It may be due to the high rate of social population increase by immigration into these regions. In fact, Miyota-machi is located in the Toshin region, and Minamiminowa-mura is located in the Nanshin region. We must note, however, Tenryu-mura is located in the same region as Minamiminowa-mura, although these two municipalities belong to different areas. Since Nagano Prefecture is made of only one province of Shinano, it seems to be inappropriate to apply the theoretical framework of the Goki-Shichido as the major source for regional variations of the prefecture. Instead, geographic factors would be more suitable in determining the municipal power in Nagano Prefecture. The impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture in 2013 is calculated as significant at 0.001 level (Y = −3.156 + 0.536X, variance explained R2 = 0.3942, p = 0.000). The marriage power in 2015 of Miyota-machi (6.23‰), and that of Minamiminowa-mura (4.26‰) might indicate a projected population increase rate for 2045. One point that calls for attention here is that the marriage power in 2015 of Tenryu-mura (4.44‰) is not too low despite the fact that the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 is extremely low (−72.2%)—the lowest in Nagano Prefecture—and ranks at the bottom of all the municipalities in Japan (see Table 1.2 in Chap. 1, Vol. I of this book). However, the recent statistics showing the annual increase rate for the child population in Tenryu-mura might indicate that both the social and the natural population increases have taken place in such forms as immigration to the village. A more detailed discussion will follow later in this chapter.

48

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

2.6 Population Changes by Age Group: Nagano Prefecture, Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura It is projected that in 2045 the average age of the people in Nagano Prefecture will be 53.8 years of age, a 5.6-year increase from that of 2015 (GD Freak 2020). Declining fertility and population aging in Nagano Prefecture will accelerate further than ever before. By 2045, the proportion of the child population (0–14 years old) will become 10.3%, and the population of older adults 65 and over will be 41.7%, and the old–old of 75 and over will be slightly more than one out of every four people in Nagano Prefecture (see Table 2.2). The 2020 report on yearly population increase rates by the municipality in each prefecture26 reveals that the top 10 out of the total 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture in 2019 scatter in 10 areas and four regions. Thus, it is difficult to see any concentration of them in any specific regions and/or areas (Nikkei BP 2020a). These top 10 municipalities are Miyota-machi (1.32%, ranking at the 41st of all the 1,724 municipalities as of December 31, 2019), Minamiminowa-mura (0.97%, 71st), Nozawaonsen-mura (0.43%, 198th), Hara-mura (0.40%, 211th), Hakuba-mura (0.39%, 215th), Kawakami-mura (0.28%, 253rd), Obuse-machi (0.23%, 268th), Karuizawa-machi (0.15%, 293rd), Minowa-machi (−0.10%, 419th), and Komaganeshi (−0.28%, 527th) (Nikkei BP 2020, Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2019). Of the annual population increase rate of these top 10 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture, eight are a positive increase, quite different from other prefectures we have studied already in this book. This fact confirms that Nagano Prefecture has been designated as the most popular prefecture to move to (Takarajima-sha 2021). Projections for population increase rates by the municipality in 2040 in Nagano Prefecture are presented by way of the G-Census GPS geographic tool. It is clear that population decline will continue throughout Nagano Prefecture, but it is difficult to identify areas and/or regions that show fast population decline. The light colors in Fig. 2.2 show high rates of population decline. In fact, the color of both Miyota-machi and Minamiminowa-mura is dark, while that of Tenryu-mura is one of the lightest (see Fig. 2.2). In Tenryu-mura, the population of older adults 65 and over was above the marginal settlement (genkai shuraku, Oono 2008) level already in 2010, and will be two-thirds of the entire population in the village by 2045 (see Table 2.2, IPSS 2013, 2018). In the municipalities where the population is growing, such as Miyota-machi, and Minamiminowa-mura, the proportions of both the child population and working population have been on the decline, but these proportions are still above the national and the prefecture average. Interestingly enough, when we look at the population changes by age group of Tenryu-mura, we note a somewhat different pattern of the population projection from the other two municipalities. That is, both the proportion of the child population and the older adults are projected to increase by 2045. It seems as if something might be happening in Tenryu-mura which will bring about the social population increase in the long run; it might not occur right now. Thus, let

2.6 Population Changes by Age Group: Nagano Prefecture …

49

us examine, via the radar chart, the municipal power of these three municipalities: Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura.

2.7 Radar Chart of Nagano Prefecture: Miyota-machi, Minamiminowa-mura, and Tenryu-mura The EvaCva radar chart for Nagano Prefecture shows 14 indicators of Minamiminowa-mura, Miyota-machi, and Tenryu-mura (see Fig. 2.3, and for an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 1.7, Vol. I of this book). As we have noted already in previous chapters, indicators for these 14 indices are mostly based on the 2010 national census data, and not on its 2015 counterpart. Even so, it is clear that the overall pattern of the radar chart for both Minamiminowa-mura and that of Miyota-machi resemble each other. However, the overall evaluation of Minamiminowa-mura is the 99th of all the 1,742 municipalities tested, while that of Miyota-machi is the 142nd. It may be due to the fact that the natural population increase rate of Minamiminowa-mura is the 49th as opposed to the 335th of Miyotamachi. On the contrary, however, the social population increase rate of Miyota-machi is the 37th, while that of Minamiminowa-mura is the 131st. Rankings of other indicators for Minamiminowa-mura and Miyota-machi are quite similar to each other. The population increase rate from the 2010 national census to that of 2015 for Nagano Traffic Safety Employment

Minamiminowa-mura Miyota-machi Tenryu-mura

Security

Wealth

Finance

Revenue

Municipal GDP

Life Expectancy

Hospitals

Child Welfare

Older Adult Welfare

TFR Social Population Growth Natural Population Growth

Fig. 2.3 Nagano Prefecture radar chart: Minamiminowa-mura, Miyota-machi, and Tenryu-mura. Source This figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva Radar Chart (http://evacva.doc.kyushuu.ac.jp/app/). Accessed 11 July 2018

50

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

Prefecture is −2.46%, while the highest is Minamiminowa-mura (3.58%) followed by Miyota-machi (3.30%), and the lowest is Tenryu-mura (−7.62%). Why has the population of Minamiminowa-mura and Miyota-machi been increasing in recent years? Minamiminowa-mura is located in the vast alluvial fan of the Ina Valley in the southern part of Nagano Prefecture, in the Kamiina area of the Nanshin region. You can enjoy the beautiful view of the Southern and Central Alps from within the village. It is known as the only village in Japan that has schools of all levels, i.e., nursery schools, elementary schools, junior high schools, high schools, junior colleges, universities, and graduate schools; agricultural high schools and university agriculture departments are especially well known. Under the natural environment full of greens and with a comfortable climate, the land area expands to the Oshiba Plateau, which has a flatland forest of about 100 ha in harmony with agriculture, industry, commerce, and residential areas. Minamiminowa-mura is full of charms, such as the “Oshiba Kogen Festival,”27 “Illuminations Festival,”28 “Kyogatake Vertical Limit,”29 the natural hot spring “Oshiba no Yu,”30 the chokubai-jo, a small local shop, where local vegetables, fruits, or other kinds of local products are sold at wholesale price, and the local restaurant “Aji kobo”31 (Minamiminowa Village 2020). What are the charms of Miyota-machi? We can point out four major aspects of the municipal power of Miyota-machi. First, it is located at the southern foot of Mt. Asama, one of the most active volcanoes in Japan at an altitude of 2,568 m. The town area extends toward Sakudaira. Since Miyota-machi is a plateau area of about 800 m, it is cool throughout the year, the weather is frequently agreeable, and the amount of precipitation is relatively low. Therefore, it is easy to spend the summer comfortably without having an air conditioner installed in the house as long as there is a fan. Second, since about 60% of Miyota-machi is occupied by mountain forests, there are many broad-leaved thickets. The beautiful forest is populated with many animals, plants, and insects, including wild birds. In addition, there are plenty of seasonal mountain blessings such as excellent highland vegetables (lettuce, Chinese cabbage, cabbage), spring wild plants, and autumn mushrooms. Third, thanks to the well-developed transportation system, Miyota-machi has been an attractive immigration and settlement destination recently, as neighboring municipalities such as Saku, Karuizawa, Komoro, and Tomi are within easy reach in about 30 min by car. Fourth, the minimum area restrictions for housing development are not particularly strict in Miyota-machi, and the land cost is reasonable compared to the adjacent town of Karuizawa. Such a land situation is very exceptional in Nagano Prefecture, especially in the area where the population is still increasing. The town has excellent accessibility to both the Tokyo metropolitan area and the Chukyo area. Thus, many people set up their homes as WFH (work from home) bases in a comfortable work-life environment. Among many, we can choose three popular places/events in Miyota-machi preferred by tourists: “Shinrakuji Temple,”32 “Ryujin Festival”33 in the summer, and “Kimatsuri kan no mizu”34 in the winter (Satoiko 2020).

2.7 Radar Chart of Nagano Prefecture: Miyota-machi …

51

The overall evaluation of the EvaCva radar chart for Tenryu-mura is the 95th of all the 1,742 municipalities measured. Surprisingly, it is higher than that of Minamiminowa-mura, and significantly higher than the Miyota-machi. From this radar chart, it is clear that the pattern of Tenryu-mura differs dramatically from the other two municipalities. Higher indicators for Tenryu-mura are older adult welfare (ranking at the 3rd of the 1,742 municipalities), the child welfare (15th), and employment (47th), while the lower indicators are the natural population increase rate (1,734th), the municipal GDP (1,647th), and the finance (1,570th). Thus, the overall evaluation for Tenryu-mura is 95th, which is much higher than that of Miyota-machi (142nd) as pointed out earlier. Furthermore, the natural population increase rate for Tenryu-mura is extremely low on the radar chart. We remember that its projected child population in 2045 will increase from 2025 (5.1%) to 5.8%. In addition, the recent report on the annual child population increase rate by prefecture and by municipality reveals that Tenryu-mura is the highest (3.51%) of all the 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture (Nikkei BP 2020b). Something must be happening to the already marginal settlement municipality (Oono 2008) of Tenryu-mura to facilitate the increase in the child population. Thus, let us study the municipal power of Tenryu-mura in detail.

2.8 Municipal Power of Tenryu-mura of the Southern Shinshu Area in the Nanshin Region 2.8.1 The Outlook of Tenryu-mura Tenryu-mura is located at the southern tip of Nagano Prefecture, and the south side of the village borders both Aichi Prefecture and Shizuoka Prefecture. The village extends 11.4 km east–west, 9.9 km north–south; of the total area of 109.44 km2 , more than 90% are mountainous and undulating forests. It is a mountain village where the Tenryu River runs almost through the center; communities scatter around the Vshaped canyon created by the river’s tributaries, with a small amount of cultivated land on both banks (Village of Tenryu 2021). Being surrounded by mountains 1,000 m high, and steep slopes with many undulations, the climate exhibits a significant inland difference in temperature, but the annual average temperature is 13.0 °C and the annual rainfall is about 2,000 mm, which creates much heat and humidity. The climate, the warmest area in Nagano Prefecture, produces vegetation that thrives in warmth, such as palms, citrons, and oaks. Thus, every year plums and cherry blossoms bloom the earliest in the prefecture. It is said, therefore, Nagano Prefecture celebrates spring first in Tenryu-mura (Village of Tenryu 2020a, 2021).

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2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

2.8.2 A Brief History of Tenryu-mura Many artifacts of the mid-Jomon period have been excavated in Tenryu-mura. In the literature, the indigenous samurai was written of in the first year of Bunna (1352, during the period of the Northern and Southern Courts), and the ruins of the castle and the shrine in medieval Japan (from about the fourth or fifth century to the 15th century) are also recorded. In the early modern period, Tenryu-mura played an important role as a timber-producing area, using the Tenryu River as tenryo (lands possessed by the shogun) of the Edo Shogunate (Village of Tenryu 2021). Two villages, i.e., Hiraoka-mura and Kamihara-mura, were merged to become Tenryu-mura in September 1956. Hiraoka-mura had been under the control of the Nakaizumi clan of the Totoumi Province (the western part of Shizuoka Prefecture today) during the Tokugawa period. At the end of the Edo period, however, it was under the jurisdiction of the Iijima clan, the representative of the Sunpu Domain, and was the so-called tenryo. At the time of the Haihan Chiken (abolition of the feudal domain system) in 1871, it was called Mitsushima-mura, Ugusu-mura, and Naganuma Matsushim-mura, an organized coalition of villages. In the following year, 1872, Mitsushima-mura was merged with Ugusu-mura to become Hiraoka-mura, and Naganuma Matsushima-mura became Kamihara-mura. Naganuma Matsushimamura was separated from Kamihara-mura and merged into Hiraoka-mura in 1902 (Village of Tenryu 2021). Kamihara-mura had also been a tenryo. At the time of the abolition of the feudal domain system in 1871, it consisted of Naganuma Matsushima-mura, Fukushimamura, Sakabe-mura, and Mukai-mura, forming a coalition. In 1897, Naganuma Matsushima-mura, Fukushima-mura, Sakabe-mura, and Muramukai-mura became Kamihara-mura after being separated from the coalition villages, but in 1884 Naganuma Matsushima Village was separated from Kamihara-mura and became Nagashima-mura. The following year, in 1885, Kamihara-mura organized a coalition group of Asage-mura, Wago-mura, and Urugi-mura. When the Municipal Government Act came into effect in 1889, Kamihara-mura was separated from the coalition villages (Village of Tenryu 2021). The Municipal Merger Promotion Law was enacted in 1952. Around that time, recommendations were made by the prefecture to merge municipalities. On February 9, 1956, the governor of Nagano Prefecture recommended the merger of towns and villages to the mayors of Hiraoka-mura and Kamihara-mura. Then, Tenryu-mura was established on September 30, 1956, and it endures to this day (Village of Tenryu 2021). In Shimoina County, the merger of Hiraoka-mura and Kamihara-mura was a first between the villages separated by the Tenryu River at that time. Since ancient times, both villages developed together with the benefit of the Tenryu. With the completion of the Hiraoka Dam (1938–51) and Sakuma Dam (1953–56), the appearance of the former Tenryu River changed. For this reason, the people in the village wanted to remember the Tenryu River forever by naming the village after it. Furthermore, it was hoped that industry would become more prosperous with the momentum of the

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dragon rising to the heavens; their intention was to imbue the construction of the new village with the spirit of Hiryu (the flying dragon). Thus, the village was named as “Tenryu-mura” (Village of Tenryu 2021).

2.8.3 Population Changes in Tenryu-mura From the end of the Meiji era (1868–1912) to the beginning of the Taisho era, (1912– 1926), the former Oji Paper Co. logged on a large scale along the Toyama River basin, and the timber boom in the region began. Consequently, the population in the area reached over 4,000 (1920: 4,198). This was the time when the strong interrelationship between economies and human power was clearly illustrated. Forest workers who moved in from other areas settled in Tenryu-mura. After that, due to the influx of construction workers for the Sanshin Railway (later called the JNR Iida Line) which was opened in 1937, the population of Tenryu-mura increased to 6,199 in 1935. Due to the construction of Japan’s largest dam, the Hiraoka Dam, the population of Tenryu-mura in 1950 became the largest in its history, with 8,337 people. At the time of the merger of Hiraoka-mura and Kamihara-mura in 1956, the total population decreased to 6,452 due to the social population decline of the people moving out of the village because of the end of the Hiraoka Dam construction. The high economic growth of the 1960s aggravated the social population decline of Tenryu-mura, as young people began to move to urban areas seeking better job opportunities (Village of Tenryu 2020a, 2021). The population of Tenryu-mura has been continuously on the declining trend, and was 1,365 people in the 2015 national census (−17.6% compared to the 2010 census; this rate of decrease is the 23rd largest among all the municipalities in Japan). The population decline between 2010 and 2015 was 58 (4.1%), less than the 2015 population projection by IPSS based on the national census trends up to 2010, which is considerably lower than the forecast. In other words, the population decline in Tenryu-mura has been accelerated from the 2010 trend. In addition, from 2015 to 2045 it is expected to decrease to about 400 people (−72.2%, see Table 2.1), and the rate of decrease is the 15th largest among all the municipalities in Japan (1,741 as of April 1, 2017). At this time, the average age of the people in the village will be 65.8, an increase of 1.9 from 64.0 in 2015 (GD Freak 2020, Village of Tenryu 2020a, 2021). According to the “Life tables by city, ward, town and village in 2015” (MHLW 2018), the average life expectancy at birth in Tenryu-mura in 2015 was 81.7 years for men (0.9 years longer than the national average), and 87.6 years for women (0.6 years longer than the national average). In addition, the average number of babies born in Tenryu-mura from 2012 to 2015 was five, and is 3.1 per 1,000 population (national average 8.4), which is the 1,719th among 1,741 municipalities nationwide. The TFR (total fertility rate), which is an estimate of the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, is 1.52, the 683rd of the total municipalities in Japan (MHLW 2018). As we discussed earlier, however, the annual child population increase rate in

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2020 for Tenryu-mura is the highest of all the 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture (Nikkei BP 2020b). Thus, we can speculate that some new programs have been initiated that affect the population increase in the remote countryside of Tenryu-mura. Let us now examine the municipal power of Tenryu-mura.

2.8.4 Municipal Power of Tenryu-mura Tenryu-mura is a super-aging village with the second-highest aging rate of all the municipalities in Japan in 2015 (older adults 65 and over: 59.0%; old–old 75 and over: 39.8%, see Table 2.2). There are no supermarkets, convenience stores, or traffic lights in Tenryu- mura. It may seem to be a “village of nothing,” but in fact, there is “everything” in the village. It may be a super-aging village, but older adults in Tenryumura are very energetic. It is natural that Tenryu-mura does not have anything. Instead of giving up just because there is nothing, the people in Tenryu-mura possess the spirit of “If so, then let’s make it by ourselves.” The main business of the village people is agriculture, but they split firewood, hunt, and use stoves of their own making in the winter. In other words, the people in Tenryu-mura have the spirit of “nothing that is not there” because they can make anything from what they have (Omatsuri Japan 2020). The lifestyle of the people in Tenryu-mura is very similar to what we found in Ama-cho in Shimane Prefecture (Kumagai 2018, 2020). The municipal power of Tenryu-mura can be seen from two perspectives. The specialty products made from natural resources on one hand, and the traditional culture of the Shimotsuki Kagura of Tenryu-mura on the other. Living in Tenryumura is a life that makes full use of the blessings of nature throughout the year. In the spring, the people wait for the Nakaisamurai meicha35 (premium organic green tea). They harvest and cook wild plants in the spring and the famous Teizanasu36 eggplant in the summer. In the fall, they glean horse chestnuts and peel them to make horse chestnut soba noodle (Tenryu Tochi no Soba),37 yuzu udon, yuzu juice,38 and when the persimmons grow, they make dried persimmons. The people in Tenryu-mura know what kind of fruit they can have each season, and how to make use of it. That wisdom has been passed down from one generation to the next. Of course, sometimes the people in the village have to put up with the ferocious weather conditions, but they have a very rich way of living in collaboration with nature (Village of Tenryu 2019b). Therefore, these specialty products are surely the valuable municipal power of Tenryu-mura that the people should be proud of. The other aspect of the municipal power of Tenryu-mura is the Shimotsuki Kagura. Among many festivals in Tenryu-mura there are three festivals held in the winter called “Mukagata Okiyome (Purity) Festival” (held on January 3), “Sakabe Winter Festival” (held on January 4), and “Okouchi Ikedai Shrine’s Annual Festival” (held on January 5). In 1978, these three were collectively designated as an important intangible folk cultural property of Japan as “Shimotsuki (the 11th month of the lunar calendar) Kagura in Tenryu Village.” The characteristic of each of these three festivals is that the “yudate”39 and dances are repeated throughout the night in winter

2.8 Municipal Power of Tenryu-mura of the Southern Shinshu …

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(originally Shimotsuki in the lunar calendar), and the overall Shinto ritual color is extremely strong. A major feature is that people called Kamiko and/or Myodo serve the festival for their entire lives; in addition to the regular festival there is an extraordinary festival called the “Purification Festival.“ Mukagata and Okochi have a strong commonality in their festivals. It is, perhaps, because Okochi has historically been a branch community of Mukagata. Festivals in Sakabe resemble others in their songs. Each of these festivals has been handed down for generations while nurturing individuality according to the local circumstances (Hachijyuni Culture Foundation 2008, Village of Tenryu 2019a). It is truly sad that these treasures of Tenryu-mura have not been recognized by the people outside the village. The people who live in the cities can connect online with the remote countryside easily these days to establish the related population. Under the coronavirus pandemic, this is an excellent means of communication and establishing relationships. In November 2020, Nagano Prefecture’s related-population creation program, “Shinshu Tsunagu Lab,” was held with the theme of the “festival and life in Tenryu-mura.“ Shinshu Tsunagu Lab is a program sponsored by Nagano Prefecture with the aim of increasing the related population who are involved with the community even if they do not live there, and who are more involved with tourism (koryu jinko) and less with migration (teijyu jinko). The core concept is to foster a connection between the city and rural Shinshu. This program focuses on the municipal power of the local community, where local and urban residents share their wisdom, plan new businesses (projects), and conduct demonstration experiments. Although the general theme has been decided, how to get involved depends on the participants. In the fiscal year of 2019, Tenryu-mura was selected as one of the target sites, and nine urban residents participated under the theme of the “festivals and life in Tenryu-mura” (Shinshu Tsunagu Lab 2020). From the example of the Shinshu Tsunagu Lab activity, Tenryu Tsunagu Lab was established in December 2020, and began to offer online meeting programs via Tenryu Tsunagu College (Tenryu Tsunagu Lab 2020). Since then, Tenryu Tsunagu College has offered online meetings three time so far by the month of March 2021. These three programs are as follows: • College vol. 1: Being connected with the traditional culture of the village in the remote countryside without living there (on December 8, 2020; 19:30–21:00), https://tenryu-tsunagu-1.peatix.com/?lang=zh-hk. • College vol. 2: Meeting with Nakaisamurai Premium Green Tea-Makers (March 6, 2021; 13:00–14:30), https://10ryu-tsunagu-2.peatix.com/ • College vol. 3: Creating something that doesn’t exist: A creative lifestyle learned from an unexplored village of Tenryu-mura, (March 15, 2021; 19:30–21:00), https://10ryu-tsunagu-3.peatix.com/. Tenryu-mura also organized an online event introducing Tenryu-mura in August 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic hit throughout Japan and people were restricted from visiting places. On the day of the event, specialty products of Tenryu-mura such as Teizanasu, home-cooked food, horse chestnuts, Yuzu, Nakaisamurai premium green tea, and the forestry of Tenryu-mura were introduced. From the Tokyo side,

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topics presented were “Tezanasu curry and spice” by a cook who traveled around the world, and “Let’s eat Teizanasu,” presented by the gourmet group SHOCK club, which prepared dishes (Village of Tenryu 2020a). It is good to let the people in Tokyo know about Tenryu-mura and its municipal powers online without making them travel there.

2.8.5 Unresolved Issues of Tenryu-mura Despite having many municipal powers within the village itself, Tenryu-mura has been designated a disappearing municipality in the years to come (Masuda 2014). There are critical issues that the village must overcome to revitalize its population. We can think of three issues. First, although it is an excellent idea to spread the word about the special products and charms of Tenryu-mura online, collaboration efforts should be made. More specifically, Tenryu-mura and Tenryu Tsunagu Lab should cooperate to organize online programs rather than pursue them independently of each other. Second, Tenryu-mura should aim to increase the related population (kankei jinko) first, offering people opportunities to experience life in the village online from home. Then, when the coronavirus pandemic is settled down and some of them want to visit Tenryu-mura to experience the life there, it will be easier to encourage them to become an exchange population (koryu jinko). Some of them may even get interested in becoming part of the immigrant settled population (ijyu teijyu jinko). It is not realistic to expect to increase the settled population without taking these steps. We should remember that the annual child population increase rate for Tenryu-mura in 2020 is the highest of all the 77 municipalities in Nagano Prefecture. Thus, there is hope for population increase in the future. Third, Tenryu-mura should increase the number of members in communitybuilding cooperation teams who work to revitalize Tenryu-mura. When the term is over, they should be offered incentive programs so that they will consider settling in the village. By incorporating the perspectives of the external younger adult generation (Yosomono and Wakamono) into the existing older generations of village people, Tenryu-mura will enable itself to identify the attractions and issues of the village that the people in the village have taken for granted. Although we are not successful in identifying any clear regional variations on population decline and the municipal power within Nagano Prefecture, we learned a lot about municipality variations within the prefecture. Now, in the following chapter, let us study a second prefecture along the Tosando, Gifu Prefecture, which is made up of two ancient provinces of Mino and Hida.

Notes

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Notes 1.

2.

3. 4.

5.

6.

Chikumagawa: The Chikumagawa and the Shinanogawa are the same rivers, but when the Chikumagawa enters Niigata Prefecture, the name changes to the Shinanogawa. This is because the names of rivers used to change from province to province, and the general names may still be different in each prefecture today (Nagano Prefecture Office 2020). Ecosystem diversity: Mountains, rivers, and basins in Nagano Prefecture offer a wide range of environments for living things. In addition to the complex topographical geology of Fossa Magna (the rift zone that borders northeastern Japan and southwestern Japan) and the Median Tectonic Line, various environmental conditions are affected by both the Sea of Japan-type and the Pacifictype climates, fostering “ecosystem diversity” in Nagano Prefecture (Nagano Prefecture 2019a,b). For the Great Merger of Heisei refer to the Note #20 in Chap. 3, Vol. I of this book. Dobina no Sato: From the end of the Edo period to the Meiji period, clay dolls were deeply rooted in the lives of ordinary people throughout Japan. The wisdom, sayings, and lessons contained in the dolls have become the culture of many children and have played a major role in the formation of the Japanese mind. In Nakano-shi, “Nakano dolls” are produced by the Nara family and “Tategahana dolls” produced by the Nishihara family, and these are collectively called “Nakano clay dolls.” It is rare in Japan that two types of clay dolls with different inflow routes and characteristics are produced in the same area using traditional techniques, which is why Nakano-shi is called “Dobina-no-Sato.” For more detail refer to https://www.city.nakano.nagano. jp/docs/2016030400039/ (Nakano City Office 2020). NAKAYAMA Shinpei; He was born on March 22, 1890, in Shinno-mura, Shimotakai District, Nagano Prefecture (currently Nakano-shi). In his 65 years of life, he composed as many as 1,795 currently known masterpieces in various musical forms such as songs, nursery rhymes, new folk songs, company songs, and school songs with poets of the era such as KITAHARA Hakushu, SAIJO Yaso, and NOGUCHI Ujo. Many of his masterpieces are said to be the songs of the hearts of the Japanese people, and are still loved and sung by the people (Nagano Prefecture 2020a). Kura-no-machi Suzaka-shi: During the Edo period, numerous commercial transactions were carried out at the Jinya (encampment, local government) town of the Suzaka feudal lord Hori and at the Oiwake (crossroads) site of the Ozasa Highway. Since then, the town prospered with the modern silk-reeling industry from the Meiji era to the early Showa era. Even now, the magnificent old silk-reeling house building with its storehouse, and the prosperous large-walled storehouse, museums, etc., are relics of that time (Suzaka City 2021).

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7.

Anzu (apricot) no Sato: This is the prototype of the seed that Toyohime, the daughter of the Iyo Uwajima feudal lord, DATE Munetoshi, brought back to her hometown when she was introduced to the third Matsushiro feudal lord, SANADA Yukimichi during the Genroku era. Today, Nagano Prefecture has the largest share of the production of apricots in Japan, and Chikuma-shi has the largest production volume in the prefecture. Thus, it is called “Japan’s No. 1 Anzu no Sato.” Shionomichi: Formally called “Matsumoto Highway,” this is a 120-km road connecting Echigo Itoigawa and Shinshu Matsumoto. It is divided into a western route (Aomi, Imai, Kotaki, Yamanobo), and an eastern route (Itoigawa, Ono, Nechi, Oami) across the Himekawa, which originates from Sano Sakashita in Shinshu Hakuba-mura, and is the starting point of the eastern route. It was Shinshichi (currently Honmachi, Itoigawa-shi) on the Kaga Kaido, which runs east to west along the coastline. Six Shinshu wholesalers, approved in 1604, were in charge of handling luggage, transportation of salt (shio in Japanese) cargo, and daily necessities (Itoigawa Sightseeing Guide 2021). Oyaki: In Shinshu, which is surrounded by mountains with a lot of snowfall, rice yields used to be very low, and buckwheat and wheat have been cultivated as a substitute for rice. Along with “soba,” wheat flour “oyaki” is also made at home as a daily meal and snack, and Shinshu’s unique so-called “powdered” food culture has been nurtured (Shinshu Oyaki Council 2020). Nippon Alps Salad Kaido: A tourist road in the western part of the Matsumoto area in Nagano Prefecture. It connects cities, towns, and villages where vegetables and fruits are cultivated (Nagano Prefecture 2020a). Mandara-no-sho (villages): In various municipalities in the Matsumoto area, there are many small stores selling seasonal fruit and vegetable specialty products, mainly from local farmers (Nagano Prefecture 2020a). Tsumago-juku: Of the 69 stations on the Nakasendo, Tsumago-juku is the 42nd post station, which is currently in Nagiso-machi of the Kiso area (Nagano Prefecture 2020a). Nezame no Toko: The area around Agematsu-machi is a granite area. The flow of the Kisogawa cuts through the terrain, and the Nezame no Toko appears. It was designated as a national scenic spot in 1923, and was a prefectural park. In 2020, however, it was promoted to the Central Alps National Park (Nagano Prefecture 2020a). Takatoo: Takatoo, Ina-shi is an area of the former Takatoo-machi in Ina-shi, which was created by the Great Merger of Heisei in 2006. Located in the northern part of Ina Valley in the southern part of Nagano Prefecture, it is a long vertical valley along the Median Tectonic Line, and one can see the Southern Alps to the east, and the Central Alps to the west. It runs 11 km east– west and 19 km north–south, with 85% of the total area occupied by forests and a small area of cultivated land. It is a mountain castle town rich in “Takatoo Kohiganzakura” in Takatoo Castle Ruins Park (Ina City Office 2020). Takatoo Kohiganzakura: In February 1960, the Kohiganzakura forest in Takatoo Castle Ruins Park was designated as a natural monument of Nagano

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

Notes

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

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Prefecture. Currently, there are 20 trees that are about 130 years old, 500 trees over 50 years old, 300 trees over 30 years old, and about 1,500 cherry trees, including young trees, in the park. The old trees were transplanted from “Sakura no Baba” by the former feudal lords of the Takatoo clan when the Takatoo castle ruins became a park in 1875. This Kohiganzakura is a hybrid of Mamezakura and Edohigan at the “International Sakura Symposium” held in Takatoo in April 1990 (Ina City Office 2020). Niino no Yuki Matsuri (Niino Snow Festival): This is a festival of good harvests held at Izu Shrine (Niino, Anan-cho, Shimoina-gun) mainly from the evening of January 14 to the morning of January 15. The name comes from the fact that snow is treated carefully as a sign of a good harvest (Ina City Museum 2021). Ooshika Kabuki: This is a terrestrial play first performed in 1767 (Meiwa 4), and is designated as a nationally selected intangible folk cultural property. It has been passed down as the greatest entertainment of the people despite being banned during the Edo to the Meiji era. There used to be 13 stages in Ooshikamura, such as in the shrine precincts, and seven of them still exist today. With a track record of performances at the National Theater in Tokyo, and overseas, many spectators from inside and outside Nagano Prefecture gather for regular performances in spring and autumn (Ina City Museum 2021). Shimotsuki Matsuri (Festival) is the Yutate (hot water) Kagura once held in Shimotsuki (November) of the lunar calendar (today it is held in January). During the winter solstice, in a ritual to pray for the resurrection of the sun and life, gods from all over Japan are invited to entertain with hot water. Today it is held in the first half of January; a big festival is held on different days at the shrines of each village in Tooyama Valley (Iida City Museum 2021). Mizuhiki is a decorative string used for the front of gift bags and noncelebration bags, and is the material used for the decorative string mainly used in gifts, gift covers (front), and New Year’s decorations. The beauty and delicacy of Mizuhiki is unique to Japan. Iida-shi is famous as the main production and processing area for Mizuhiki. Iida’s Mizuhiki-making started in the Edo period. Due to the suitable climate and location of Iida-shi, it has steadily developed the Mizuhiki industry and is now a large production area with 70% of the national market share (Iida Mizuhiki Factory 2021). Genpei Gassen: The Genpei Wars (1180–1185) were a conflict between the Taira and Minamoto clans in the late-Heian period in Japan. They resulted in the fall of the Taira clan and establishment of the Kamakura shogunate under MINAMOTO Yoritomo in 1192 (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). For the in-depth discussion, definition, and measurements of the municipal power, refer to previous publications of the current author (Kumagai 2018, 2020, Chap. 1.4 of the Volume I of this book). Healthy life expectancy (HALE) is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as the average number of years that a person can expect to live in “full health” by taking into account years lived in less than full health due to disease

60

23.

24. 25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

and/or injury. According to the report by WHO, Globally, life expectancy has increased by more than 6 years between 2000 and 2019—from 66.8 years in 2000 to 73.4 years in 2019. While healthy life expectancy (HALE) has also increased by 8% from 58.3 in 2000 to 63.7, in 2019, this was due to declining mortality rather than reduced years lived with disability. In other words, the increase in HALE (5.4 years) has not kept pace with the increase in life expectancy (6.6 years) (WHO 2021). Koreans in Japan here indicates Kankoku-jin (people from South Korea), not including Chosen-jin (those from Democratic People’s Republic of Korea). The reason for distinguishing Koreans into two groups is that from the Basic Resident Register survey of 2020 (as of the end of December 2020), the conventional notation related to “Korea/North Korea” has been changed to the statistics of foreign residents stipulated by the Immigration Bureau of Japan. Accordingly, the classification is written separately from “Korea” and “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.” Based on the aggregated postcard response results of “prefectures you want to move to” of the “Book of Country Life (Takarajima-sha 2021).” Kankei jinko is the term used in tourism meaning the people who travel to and from a remote area from their place of residence and interact with the local people in a variety of ways. Other related terms used in tourism are koryu jinko (exchange population), and teijyu jinko (resident population) described in Note #28 of Chap. 1 of this Volume II. The “Population Increase Rate Ranking 2020” is based on the data in “Population, Vital Statistics and Number of Households Based on the Basic Resident Register” (as of January 1, 2020), released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in August 2020. It is a ranking of the population increase/decrease rate for the calendar year. Cities designated by government ordinance are listed in units of administrative districts (Nikkei BP 2020a). Oshiba Kogen Festival: This is a large event that concludes the summer in Shinshu Ina Valley; it is usually held on the first Saturday after August 20. Many people come to various events and fireworks festivals launched in the plateau. Due to the coronavirus pandemic the festivals in 2020 and 2021 as well were cancelled (Minamiminowa Village Tourism Office 2021). Illumination Festival: This is the major event of Oshiba Kogen in October, which is planned by volunteers in Minamiminowa-mura, and is operated with the cooperation of many companies, organizations, and groups. Every year more than 100,000 people are entertained by handmade works displayed in a large 40,000 m2 panorama in the park (Minamiminowa Village Tourism Office 2021). Kyogatake Vertical Limit: This is Ina Valley’s first trail running race held by Kita Shinano Trail Freaks (KTF) in collaboration with Minamiminowa-mura. A vertical race to climb up and down to the summit of Mt. Kyogatake (distance: 21 km, cumulative altitude: 1,650 m), which is officially recognized by the Japan Skyrunning Association (JSA). There is also a short course (12 km and

Notes

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31.

32.

33.

34.

35.

61

630 m), and runners can participate according to their level. (Minamiminowa Village Tourism Office 2021). Oshiba no yu: This is a hot spring in the forest park of Oshiba Kogen in Minamiminowa-mura; people can visit after enjoying sports and leisure in the park where various facilities are available. People can enjoy outdoor “Matsuno yu” and “Hinokino yu” with an outdoor rock bath alternating on a weekly basis for men and women. The low-temperature “Milky Bath” utilizing the source is popular with women (Minamiminowa Village Tourism Office 2021). Aji kobo: This is a restaurant in the forest park of Oshiba Koen; people often stop by there to enjoy local bread, gelato, and galette, especially after taking the Oshiba no yu (Minamiminowa Village Tourism Office 2021). Shinrakuji: The temple was opened by Emperor Yomei in 586, and it is the oldest temple around the foot of Mt. Asama. The area enjoys deep green in the summer, colored leaves in the fall, and pure white snow in the winter. The varied landscape fascinates people and is a symbol of the town. Mt. Asama is known as one of the most active volcanoes in the world. It has been scientifically observed, and regular observations are ongoing. “Shinrakuji” is a temple built near the foot of Mt. Asama to calm the eruption of Mt. Asama (Satoiko 2020). Ryujin Festival: The big summer event, “Ryujin Matsuri” is a festival born from the legend passed down to Shinrakuji Temple explained above. The legend of KOGA Saburo is that Saburo, who was successful in war, is dropped into a big hole by those who are jealous of his activity. Saburo was dropped into the deep underground, but he walked steadily while eating the rice cake on his waist, and finally he went to a bright place, Onumaike, and became a dragon. After finishing the opening ceremony at Shinrakuji Sanmon, Ryujin enters Onuma Pond while blowing fire from his mouth. The dragon dance passes through Onuma Pond and proceeds to the “Ryujin no Mori Park.“ At the climax, fireworks color the summer night sky, and at the end of the festival the dragon falls asleep again (Satoiko 2020). Kimatsuri kan no mizu: “Strange Festival of Cold Water” is a festival held in the Kusagoe district during the coldest day of the year (January 20). Wearing only a crown made of straw, called a rabbit, and a loincloth, a performer bathes in cold water and dedicates a rabbit to Kumano Shrine while running around the village. The festival prays for the good harvest of five-grain, freed from disease, and the prosperity of the annual inn (every year, a newly built house applies and becomes the duty); it is a men’s festival that is said to be a remnant of Oyama Ko. The festival was designated as a town intangible folk cultural property on June 1, 1978, and as a prefecture intangible folk cultural property on August 25, 1989 (Satoiko 2020). Nakaisamurai meicha is hand-picked refined green tea that is organically cultivated on a steep slope at an altitude of 600 m in the Nakaisamurai district of Tenryu-mura. Since only the first-picked tea is made, the distribution volume is extremely small, and it is rarely shipped to the market. This is the only place where you can get this taste of the open-field cultivation. Lightly steamed tea,

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37.

38.

39.

2 Nagano Prefecture Along the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

which is only possible by careful cultivation and advanced tea-making technology, has a very strong sweetness and umami, and leaves a lingering finish even after drinking. Thus, it is called the tea of the phantom (Village of Tenryu 2019a, b). Teizanasu: It is said that Mr. Hisakichi Taizawa, who lived in the Kamihara district of Tenryu-mura, ordered seeds from a seed shop in Tokyo around 1887 and started cultivating them. It was named “Taizawa eggplant” after Mr. Taizawa, but the locals call it “Teizanasu.“ After that, Mr. Hiroshi Onzawa and others have inherited and cultivated it. It is harvested from July to November, and the large ones weigh as much as 1 kg. Even if it is large, the seeds are small and few, and only about 10 Teizanasu fruits can be harvested from one tree. The fruit is soft and has a strong sweetness, and the grilled eggplant is recommended (Village of Tenryu 2019a, b). Tenryu Tochi no Soba, which was developed as part of the village revitalization project, has been handed down for generations in Tenryu-mura. “Tochi no Soba” is a special dish made by grinding horse chestnuts and mixing them with buckwheat flour (Village of Tenryu 2019a, b). Yuzu udon is a dried Japanese noodle made by yuzu (a small citrus fruit) that is planted in various parts of Tenryu-mura, like Tochi no Soba, as a souvenir. Yuzu juice is a product in which seven to eight yuzu are squeezed into a single bottle manually. It is not juice to drink, but is good for breaking shochu (a clear liquor distilled from sweet potatoes, rice, buckwheat, etc.), or scenting hot dishes, cakes and sweets (Village of Tenryu 2019a, b). Yudate is a Shinto ritual in which a shaman or priest soaks bamboo grass in boiling water and sprinkles the water on worshippers. Originally, it is a form of divination, later a purification ceremony, now primarily used to pray for good health (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011).

References Chikuma Tourism Bureau. (2020). Anzu no Sato [Chikuma-shi, town of appricots]. https://chikumakanko.com/tourist-guide/shinanonosato/. Accessed 9 Feb 2021. GD Freak. (2020). To-do-fu-ken oyobi shi-ku-cho-son betsu no jinko to setai gurafu pootaru [Portal sites for the population and households by prefecture, and by municipality]. https://jp.gdfreak. com/meta/jp/ppl.html. Accessed 1 Aug 2021. Hachijuni Culture Foundation. (2008). Shinshu no densho bunka [The traditional culture of Shinshu]. https://www.82bunka.or.jp/bunkazai/legend/detail/01/post-82.php. Accessed 7 Mar 2021. Human Index. (2020). Nagano-ken heno ijyu de shippai shinai tameni [Things to remember about negative points of living in Nagano Prefecture]. https://www.h-index.co.jp/change-job/column/ immigrate-to-nagano/. Accessed 21 2021. Iida City Museum. (2021). Iida Shimoina no bunkazai kensaku [Cultural Asset Search of Iida-Shimoina Area]. https://www.iida-museum.org/cgi-bin/bunkazai/weblib.cgi?mode=read&

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indx=&class=&word=%E2%80%99DJ%83e%83B%5E%20b%20vQ%83e%83B%5E%20e% E2%80%26%2365533%3B%20%E5%81%83%C6%92%C3%83B%5E%83j%92X&cond=% E5%85%83B%E3%81%26%2365533%3B%83%5C%83X%83j%92%5C%83j%92X%E3% 81%26%2365533%3B%83%5C%83X%83j%92%5C%83j%92X%E6%9D%81B%E4%BB% 83J%E3%82%92%E5%90%AB%26%2365533%3B%BF%83X%E2%80%26%2365533% 3B%3E%3Cinput%20type=hidden%20name=view%20%20value=&page=18. Accessed 11 Feb 2021. Iida Mizuhiki Factory. (2021). Souukichi no Iida Mizuhiki [Mizuhiki shop Souukichi]. https://www. mizuhiki1.com/. Accessed 11 Feb 2021. Ina City Office. (2020). Takatoo Joshi koen gaido [Guide to Takatoo Castle Ruins Park] updated February 18. https://www.inacity.jp/smph/kankojoho/sakura_meisho/takatojoshi_sakura/kankop amphlet.html. Accessed 11 Feb 2021. Ito, M. (2021). Nagano-ken ga ijyu lankingu de ninki na riyuu towa? [Why is Nagano Prefecture popular as the prefecture wishing to immigrate to live?] updated January 5. https://kayakura.me/ nagano-migration/. Accessed 21 Feb 2021. Itoigawa Sightseeing Guide. (2021) Shionomichi kodo [Ancient highway for the salt transportation]. https://www.itoigawa-kanko.net/spot/shionomichi_museum/. Accessed 9 Feb 2021. Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles. (2011). https://alaginrc.nict.go. jp/WikiCorpus/index_E.html. Accessed 14 Feb 2021. Kodansha International. (1983). Kodansha Encyclopedia of Japan. Tokyo: Kodansha. Kumagai, F. (2018). Chiikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinkou Genshou Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saisei Saku [Declining Population and the Municipal Power in Japan: Policies for Area Revitalization of Small Municipalities]. Kyoto: Minerva-shobo. Kumagai, F. (2020). Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations. Singapore: Springer Nature. Masuda, H. (ed.) (2014). Chihou Shoumetsu [Disappearing Local Regions]. Tokyo: Chukoushinsho. Minamiminowa Village Tourism Office. (2021). Minamiminowa-mura no kanko supotto. Minamiminowa Village. (2020). Minamiminowa-mura soncho aisatsu: Nihon ichi no mur wo mezashite [Greetings from Minamiminowa-mura village mayor: Aiming for the number 1 village in Japan]. Updated December 1, https://www.vill.minamiminowa.lg.jp/soshiki/soumu/sontyoais atu.html. Accessed 25 Feb 2021. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare [MHLW]. (2018). Heisei 27-nen shi-ku-cho-son betsu seimeihyou no gaikyo [Life tables by city, ward, town and village in 2015], Press released on April 17. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/life/ckts15/index.html. Accessed 18 Feb 2021. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare [MHLW]. (2020). Heisei 25-nen -Heisei 29-nen jinko doutai hokenjyo shi-ku-cho-son betsu toukei [2013–2017 vital statistics of health center by municipality]. Press released on July 31. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/other/hok en19/index.html. Accessed 18 Feb 2021. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014). Heisei 26-nen jyumin kihondaichou ni motozuku jinkou, jinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and household statistics for the basic resident register as of January 1, 2014]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/ 01gyosei02_02000062.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2016, released 13 Feb 2012. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018). Kankei jinko towa [What is the related population]. https://www.soumu.go.jp/kankeijinkou/about/index.html. Accessed 6 Mar 2021. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2019). Heisei 30-nen jutaku tochi tokei chosa—jutaku oyobi setai ni kansuru kihon shukei [Housing and land statistics survey in 2018: The basic statistics of houses and households]. The basic statistics of houses and households]. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jyutaku/2018/pdf/kihon_gaiyou.pdf. Accessed 3 Aug 2021. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2020). Jumin kihon daicho ni motozuku jinko, jinkodotai oyobi setaisuu: Reiwa 2-nen 1-gatsu 1-nichi genzai [Population, vital statistics and number of households based on the Basic Resident Register-Ministry of Internal Affairs and

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Communications, as of January 1, 2020], released August 5. https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_s osiki/jichi_gyousei/daityo/jinkou_jinkoudoutai-setaisuu.html. Accessed 17 Dec 2020. Nagano Prefecture Industrial Labor Department. (2021). Invest Nagano. https://ritchi.pref.nagano. lg.jp/en/. Accessed 13 Aug. 2021. Nagano Prefecture. (2016). Heisei 27-nenn kokuseichousa kekka kakuhou: Jiniko kihon shuukei [2015 census result on the basic statistics of the population of Nagano Prefrecture], Planning Promotion Department, October 31. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/tokei/tyousa/documents/ press_jinkou.pdf. Accessed 16 Feb 2021. Nagano Prefecture. (2019a). Nagano-ken jinko teichaku—Shinshu sousei senryaku [Nagano Prefecture population revitalization plan]. Updated February 9. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/kikaku/ kensei/shisaku/documents/documents/jinkoua4-4p.pdf. Accessed 15 Feb 2021. Nagano Prefecture. (2019b). Naganoken no seibutsu tayousei [Eco diversity of Nagano Prefecture]. Updated on the 24th of June. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/shizenhogo/kurashi/shizen/hogo/tay osei/tayosei.html#naganonotayousei. Accessed 7 Feb 2021. Nagano Prefecture. (2020a). Naganoken no 10 koiki [10 wide areas in Nagno Prefecture]. Updated on the 1st of April. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/10koiki/index.html. Accessed 8 Feb 2021. Nagano Prefecture. (2020b). Naganoken no sugata [The outlook of Nagno Prefecture]. Updated on the 10 of July. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/kyoiku/bunsho/bunka/rekishi/rekishi/index.html. Nagano Prefecture. (2021a). Reiwa 3-nen 1-gatsu tsuitachi genzai Nagano-ken no jinko to setai [Population and household of Nagano Prefecture as of January 1, 2021]. Uploaded on January 29. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/tokei/tyousa/jinkou.html. Accessed 15 Feb 2021. Nagano Prefecture. (2021b). Nagano-ken ga ijyuu shitai todofuken lankingu de 15-nen renzoku ichii to narimashita [Nagano Prefecture was ranked first as the best prefecture to move to live for 15 consecutive years]. Planning Promotion Department. January 4. https://www.pref.nagano.lg. jp/iju/happyou/20210104press.html. Accessed 20 Feb 2021. Nagano Prefecture. (2021c). Dai 8-ki Nagano-ken koreisha pulan: Reiwa 3-nendo-Reiwa 5-nendo [The 8th planning of the welfare program for the older adult population in Nagano Prefecture: From 2021 to 2023 fiscal years]. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/kaigo-shien/kenko/koureisha/shi saku/plan8/documents/documents/dai1hen.pdf. Accessed 14 Aug 2021. Nagano Prefecture, Passport Division. (2021). Kennai ni zaijyu suru gaikokujin no suii [Changes in foreign residents in Nagano Prefecture]. https://www.pref.nagano.lg.jp/kokusai/sangyo/kokusai/ tabunka/tabunka/documents/0201suii.pdf. Accessed 14 Aug 2021. Nakano City Office. (2020). Kyodo gankgu Nakano dobina [Local toys, Nakano clay dolls]. Updated 11th of December. https://www.city.nakano.nagano.jp/docs/2016030400039/. Accessed 9 Feb 2021. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2013). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 22-Heisei 52 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010– 2040]. Population Research Series No.330, December 25. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/bun ken/data/pdf/208521.pdf. Accessed 13 Nov 2017. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2018). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko (Heisei 30-nenn Suikei)-Heisei 30-Heisei 57 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045]. News Release on March 30. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/j/ shicyoson18/1kouhyo/gaiyo.pdf. Accessed 31 Mar 2018. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2019). Nihon no Setaisuu no Shourai Suikei (To-Do-Fu-Ken betsu Suikei): Heisei 27-nen – Heisei 52-nen [Household projections for Japan by prefecture: 2015–2040]. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-pjsetai/j/hpjp2019/ gaiyo/gaiyo.pdf, released April 19. Accessed 11 Apr 2021. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2020). Jinko Toukei Shiryoushuu: 2020 [Latest demographic statistics of 2020]. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/ Popular/Popular2020.asp?chap=0. Accessed 18 Feb 2021. Nikkei BP Souken. (2020a). Jinko zougen-ritsu ranking 2020-zenkoku toppu 50, jinkoukibo, todo-fu-ken betsu [Population increase rates of municipalities in 2020—Top 50 municipalities by

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population size and by prefecture]. Shin Koumin Renkei Saizensen, August 28 issue. https://pro ject.nikkeibp.co.jp/atclppp/080600025/080600003/. Accessed 13 Oct 2020. Nikkei BP. (2020b). Nensho jinko zougenritsu ranking 2020 [The child population increase rates of municipalities in 2020—Top 50 municipalities by population size and by prefecture]. Shin Koumin Renkei Saizensen, September 15 issue. https://project.nikkeibp.co.jp/atclppp/080600 025/080600005/?P=10#naganoken. Accessed 24 Feb 2021. Omatsuri Japan. (2020). Hikyo no sanson to matsuri de kankei jinko ni: Tenryu-mura mukaigata no Okiyome Matsuri [Becoming a related population with an unexplored mountain villagethrough a festival: For the case of the Mukaigata Okiyome Matsuri of Tenryu-mura]. https://omatsurijapan. com/blog/tenryu-tsunagu-lab/. Accessed 6 Mar 2020. Oono A. (2008). Genkaishuraku to Chiikisaisei[Marginal settlement and regional revitalization]. Kochi: Kochi Newspaper Co. Satoiko. (2020). Miyota-machi shoukai [Introducing Miyota-machi]. Uploaded May 7. https://www. satoiko.jp/special/shokai.miyota. Accessed 25 Feb 2021. Shinshu Oyaki Council. (2020). Oyaki tte nani?[What is oyaki?]. https://www.shinshu-oyaki.jp/ pages/4120083/about-oyaki. Accessed 9 Feb 2021. Shinshu Tsunagu Lab. (2020). Shinshu Tsunagu Lab [Let’s connect between municipalities in Nagano Prefecture and cities]. https://shinshu-tsunagu.jp/. Accessed 6 Mar 2021. Suzaka City. (2021). Kura no machinami [Townscape of storehouses]. https://www.city.suzaka.nag ano.jp/contents/imagefiles/170030/files/machinami01.pdf. Accessed 9 Feb 2021. Takarajima-sha. (2021). Inakagurashi no Hon [Book of Living in the Country]. February Issue. https://tkj.jp/inaka/202102/. Accessed 20 Feb 2021. Tenryu Tsunagu Lab. (2020). Tenryu Tsunagu Lab. https://note.com/tenryutsunagulab. Accessed 8 Mar 2020 Village of Tenryu. (2019a). Matsuri [Festivals of Tenryu-mura]. http://www.vill-tenryu.jp/category/ tourism/festival_heritage/. Accessed 7 Mar 2021. Village of Tenryu. (2019b). Teizanasu [Teizanasu eggplant]. Tourist Bereau, http://www.vill-ten ryu.jp/tourism/souvenir/taizawanasu/. Accessed 5 Mar 2021. Village of Tenryu. (2020a). Tenryu-mura machi hito shigoto sougou senryaku kaiteiban [Revised version of the comprehensive population revitalization strategy of Tenryu-mura]. March. http://www.vill-tenryu.jp/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/f4d1495367ccb44975acbd51e2f ea6b5.pdf. Accessed 8 Mar 2021. Village of Tenryu. (2020b). Tenryu-mura onrain fesu wo jisshi shimashita [Online meeting between Tenryu-mura and Tokyo was held], August 28. http://www.vill-tenryu.jp/notice/20200828/. Accessed 8 Mar 2021. Village of Tenryu. (2021). Tenryu-mura tte konna mura [Outlook of Tenryu-mura]. http://www.villtenryu.jp/notice/administrative/government_info/about/about_village/. Accessed 1 Mar 2021. World Health Organization [WHO]. (2021). The Global Health Observatory (GHE): Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE) https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/mortalityand-global-health-estimates/ghe-life-expectancy-and-healthy-life-expectancy. Accessed 14 Aug 2021.

Chapter 3

Gifu Prefecture in the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations: Mino vs. Hida Provinces

Abstract Of all the 47 prefectures, the projected population increase rate of Gifu Prefecture in 2045 ranks 29th (−23.4%), slightly below the middle, as opposed to the national average (−16.3%). However, we notice a wide range of regional variations among 42 municipalities within Gifu Prefecture. More specifically, it ranges from the highest, Mizuho-shi (2.3%) to the lowest, Shirakawa-cho (−59.0%). Interestingly enough, two municipalities, the second highest, Minokamo-shi (−4.6%) and the lowest of Shirakawa-cho are located in the same Chuno area of the Mino region of ancient Mino Province. When we examined regional variations on municipal powers, it looks as if the Hida region today seems to be lag slightly behind the Mino region. It would be because four municipalities in the Hida region are located in the northern mountainous area of the prefecture. Whereas Mino Province, being located in almost the center of Japan, was strategically important place connecting Togoku (the Eastern Japan) and Kinai. Modern Gifu Prefecture was created in 1876 through the merger of Hida and Mino provinces, which correspond roughly to the northern and southern portions of the prefecture. The area has long been of strategic importance as a link between eastern and western Honshu as well as between the Pacific and the Sea of Japan coasts. Thus, there seems a little noticeable pattern of difference in municipal powers between the Hida and Mino regions in present-day Gifu Prefecture. Although the population of Shirakawa-cho today and the future looks like a devastating situation there are outstanding municipal powers to be noted in two areas. They are the smart forestry, and ICT education in public primary and secondary schools. Let us introduce briefly these municipal powers of Shirakawacho. In collaboration with Gifu Academy of Forest Science and Culture in Mino-shi Shirakawa-cho is conducting a demonstration experiment to see if the town where nearly its 90% of the area is covered with forest, can proceed with various forest maintenance unmanned in the form of “smart forestry.” The introduction of ICT facilities in the primary education in 2015 in Shirakawa-cho benefitted in numerous ways of pupils, students, faculty, and staff not merely on their ICT skills, but also various aspects of their lives. This is the very reason why primary schools in a remote rural town of Shirakawa is evaluated highly on computerization in education. Making the best use of these two municipal powers Shirakawa-cho will never disappear, but here to stay. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. Kumagai, Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II, Population Studies of Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6609-4_3

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Keywords Gifu Prefecture · Mino Province · Hida Province · The Battle of Sekigahara · Center of population · Gassho-zukuri village · Mizuho-shi · Minokamo-shi · Shirakawa-cho · Smart forestry · Gifu Academy of Forest Science and Culture · Education by utilizing ICT promotion project in the remote area · GIGA school plans

3.1 The Outlook and Areas of Gifu Prefecture 3.1.1 The Outlook of Gifu Prefecture The last prefecture we are going to discuss in this book is Gifu Prefecture along the Tosando made up of the provinces once known as Mino and Hida. Gifu Prefecture is located almost in the center of Japan, and Seki-shi (# in Fig. 3.1) has the center of population1 of Japan (the point that supports the population of Japan as a whole provided each person has the same weight). With an area of approximately 10,621 km2 , the prefecture boasts the seventh largest area in Japan, and is one of the few inland prefectures surrounded by seven prefectures. These seven prefectures are Toyama to the north, Nagano to the east, Aichi and Mie to the south, and Shiga, Fukui, and Ishikawa to the west. The terrain is almost totally mountainous, and the forest rate is 81.2% of the prefecture’s land, which is the second highest in Japan after Kochi Prefecture (83.8%). Major ranges include the Hida and Ryohaku mountain ranges in the north, with some peaks measuring over 3,000 m in height. The southern section is composed of lower mountains and the Nobi Plain around the city of Gifu (#➀ in Fig. 3.1), which is the capital of the prefecture, and major economic center.

Fig. 3.1 Map of Gifu Prefecture by region, area, and municipality (21 cities, 19 towns, and 2 villages = total of 42 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Gifu. Accessed 17 Mar 2021. This map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each area

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Major rivers are the Kisogawa, Ibigawa, and Nagaragawa. The climate is mild in the southern section, former Mino Province, but cooler in the mountainous north, former Hida Province. Precipitation is heavy in both areas. Almost all major cities are located in the south and form an integral part of the Chukyo Industrial Zone centering on Nagoya (Gifu Prefecture 2018, 2021, Kodansha International 1983). The Hida region, in the northern part of Gifu prefecture which is more or less equivalent to the ancient Hida Province, is lined with mountains over 3,000 m above sea level, such as Mt. Ontake, Mt. Norikura, and Mt. Okuhotaka. Being surrounded by mountains, the Hida area is cold and snowy in the winter as it goes below freezing. From late October to April, it gets quite cold in the morning and evening. Also, from late November to March, there are many areas where it snows so much that it can be piled up even in urban areas, and it is highly expected that transportation will be delayed. In addition, there are many famous hot spring areas scattered around the city and its suburbs of the Hida region (Gifu Prefecture 2018). On the other hand, in the southern Mino region, which can be equated to the ancient Mino Province, the Kiso Three Rivers (Kiso River, Nagara River, and Ibi River) flow through the Nobi Plain, and the middle reaches of the Nagara River are so beautiful that they are selected as one of the “100 Famous Waters of Japan.” In this way, Gifu Prefecture, which is blessed with nature, has long been called the “Hida Mountains, Mino Water.” The Mino region is characterized by the temperature difference between summer and winter. Despite low snowfall, winter temperatures are often negative, while summer temperatures are often close to 40 degrees Celsius. Tajimi-shi (# in Fig. 3.1), known as “the hottest city in Japan,” is located in the Tono area in the Mino region (Gifu Prefecture 2018).

3.1.2 Areas of Gifu Prefecture Not only are the total 42 municipalities of Gifu Prefecture today divided into two regions, Mino and Hida (4 municipalities), but also the Mino region is divided into four areas. These four areas in the Mino region are Gifu (9 municipalities), Seino (11 municipalities), Chuno (13 municipalities), and Tono (5 municipalities) areas. These 42 municipalities of Gifu Prefecture are listed in below, and are also found in Fig. 3.1 (the number corresponds to the one on the map). Each of these five areas of Gifu Prefecture possesses its unique characteristics. Mino Region: Gifu Area (9 municipalities): ➀Gifu-shi, ➁Hashima-shi, ➂Kakamigahara-shi, ➃Yamagata-shi, ➄Mizuho-shi, ➅Motosu-shi, ➆Ginan-cho, ➇Kasamatsu-cho, ➈Kitagata-cho. Gifu-shi (#➀), where the prefectural office is located, prospered as a castle town of ODA Nobunaga, and is a popular spot with beautiful autumn leaves and night views of Mt. Kinka, where Nobunaga’s castle “Gifu Castle” is located. Traditional

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techniques such as Ukai on the Nagara River are also worth seeing (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020). Seino Area (11 municipalities): ➉Oogaki-shi, Kaizu-shi, Yourou-cho, Taruicho, Sekigahara-cho, Godo-cho, Wanouchi-cho, Anpachi-cho, Ibigawacho, Oono-cho, Ikeda-cho. Ogaki-shi (#➉ in Fig. 3.1) is famous as the “city of water.” The sweet “Mizu manju”2 born from the famous water is a summer tradition. “Yourou no Taki” (Yourou Waterfall)3 is known for the legend of filial piety, which has been selected as one of the 100 best waterfalls in Japan. There is also the place of the big stage “Sekigahara no Tatakai” (the Battle of Sekigahara),4 which is the division of the world, and it is an area full of history (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020). Chuno Area (13 municipalities): Seki-shi, Mino-shi, Minokamo-shi, Kanishi, Gujo-shi, Sakahogi-cho, Tomika-cho, Kawabe-cho, Hichiso-cho, Yaotsu-cho, Shirakawa-cho, Higashishirakawa-mura, Mitake-cho. Gujo (# in Fig. 3.1) Hachiman, famous for Gujo Odori (dancing), is located upstream of the clear stream of the Nagaragawa. Mino-shi (# in Fig. 3.1), which has prospered in the Japanese paper industry, is popular as an “Udatsu ga agaru machinami” (Getting on in life Historical District). Monet’s Pond, which is lit because it resembles Monet’s masterpiece “Water Lilies,” is a moving painting (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020). Tono Area (5 municipalities): Tajimi-shi, Nakatsugawa-shi, Mizunami-shi, Ena-shi, Toki-shi. Ena-kyo (# in Fig. 3.1), which is famous for its beautiful valley, is also known for its strange rocks on both banks. Tajimi (# in Fig. 3.1), where you can experience Mino ware pottery, and Magome-juku,5 a post town in Nakatsugawa (# in Fig. 3.1), are popular spots (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020). Hida Region: Hida Area (4 municipalities): Takayama-shi, Hida-shi, Gero-shi, Shirakawa-mura. The old streets of Hida Takayama, the Shirakawa-go (# in Fig. 3.1) Gasshozukuri6 (house with a steep rafter roof) village, which is a World Heritage Site, the Okuhida Onsenkyo surrounded by nature, and Gero Onsen, one of Japan’s three famous hot-springs are interesting places to visit. The Hida area is an area where one can enjoy the blessings of the nature (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020).

3.2 A Brief History of Gifu Prefecture In Gifu Prefecture, during the Upper Paleolithic period, which began about 30,000 years ago people were active on the terraces and plateaus have been confirmed by ruins (Hino Ruins, Terada Ruins, and Tsubakibora Ruins) in the northern part of

3.2 A Brief History of Gifu Prefecture

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the Nobi Plain. In addition, ruins in a narrow ridge in the mountains (Ibigawa-cho Fujihashi-mura Tokuyamaji mansion ruins) and lowland ruins (Hida-shi Miyagawamura Miyanomae ruins) have been confirmed. In the first half of the fourth century, western Mino came under the influence of the Yamato administration. Then, in the latter half of the fourth century, it extended to the Hida region (Takemitsu 2001). After the centralized administration of the Ritsuryo7 system in 701, the abovementioned two regions were merged into two provinces, Mino (18 counties and 131 towns) and Hida (3 counties and 13 towns). Mino and Hida provinces belong to the Tosando, and the mainline from Kinai passes through Omi and Mino provinces, and heads for Shinano-Ueno. Thus, the route from Mino to Hida was a branch line of the Tosando (Takemitsu 2001). Being located in almost the center of Japan Mino Province was an important military base connecting Togoku and Kinai, it is an area where many important battles have occurred in the history of Japan. In the olden days, there was the Jinshin War (672) in which the Prince of Ooama raised troops based in this country, and the fierce Battle of Sekigahara (1600) was fought near the Fujiko River in Sekigahara (Takemitsu 2001). In the Middle Ages of Japan (1185–1573), the Toki clan family became the guardian of Mino Province, and the Kyogoku clan family became the guardian of Hida Province. In the Warring States period (1467–1590), Mino Province became the stage for the activities of SAITO Dosan and ODA Nobunaga. On the other hand, Hida Province was dominated by the Anekoji clan family, and then by the Kanamori clan family, who followed HASHIBA Hideyoshi (who changed the name to TOYOTOMI Hidayoshi later). The Battle of Sekigahara (1600), the one which was to decide who would rule Japan and established the hegemony of the Tokugawa shogunate, was held between TOKUGAWA Ieyasu and ISHIDA Mitsunari in the Seino area of Sekigahara, Tarui, and Ogaki (Takemitsu 2001). In the Edo period, although the clan was reformed and transferred due to the Battle of Sekigahara, Mino Province is still a strategically important place with a high stipend, provided by the shogunate. It was divided into small clan families. As the shogunate territory, Mino Gundai8 of Kasamatsu Jinya9 ruled. Hida Province initially had the Hida Takayama feudal clan, but the shogunate, which focused on forest and mining resources during the Genroku period (1688–1704), transferred the feudal lord Kanamori to the Kaminoyama feudal clan. After that, it became the shogunate territory, and the Hida Gundai of Takayama Jinya ruled. In addition, based on the Tosando of the Ritsuryo era, the Nakasendo10 was constructed by connecting various roads built by the Sengoku daimyo during the Warring States period (Takemitsu 2001). Modern Gifu Prefecture was created in 1876 through the merger of Hida and Mino provinces, which correspond roughly to the northern and southern portions of the prefecture. The area has long been of strategic importance as a link between eastern and western Honshu as well as between the Pacific and the Sea of Japan coasts (Kodansha International 1983). Different kinds of many agricultural products are produced in various parts of Gifu Prefecture throughout the year depending on the natural conditions of the region.

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Taking advantage of the warm climate rice cultivation is flourishing in the flatlands of southwestern Gifu Prefecture. In addition, taking advantage of the cool summer climate vegetables such as summer-autumn tomatoes, spinach, and summer radishes are actively cultivated in the mountains and cold regions of the Chuno, Tono, and Hida areas (for these areas refer to Fig. 3.1). Beef cattle and dairy cows are also bred in the mountains. In addition, the fishery industry is centered on ayu (sweetfish) fishing, and aquacultures such as rainbow trout and amago (land-locked variety of red-spotted trout (Gifu Prefecture 2018). On the other hand, manufacturing has been active for a long time in the prefecture, and the manufacturing industry has become a central industry in Gifu Prefecture. The number of employees in the manufacturing industry accounts for 25.0% (the national average ratio: 16.0%) of all industries, and the national ranking is as high as the 6th from the top. There are distinctive local industries such as fashion, ceramics, furniture/woodworking, cutlery, Japanese paper, plastics, and food (Gifu Prefecture 2018). Gifu Prefecture being merged with two different provinces of Hida and Mino, we expect the people each of these regions are likely to possess different temperaments and characteristics. The people of Hida are said to be diligent, tenacious, naive, and very disciplined. This is due to the fact that Hida being a mountainous country, there was little interaction with other regions. Therefore, it tells that the inhabitants have conveyed a traditional and simple temperament. In addition, the people of Hida tend to be closed due to their local characteristics, and are satisfied with spending their days in peace (Takemitsu 2001). The temperament of the people of Mino is sometimes referred to as “wajyu konjyo” (wajyu is an area surrounded by embankments to protect it from floods). It expresses the tightness of unity within the people of Mino, and refers to the idea that it is all right if only one’s own family, relatives, and the village are safe. In addition, there are many cases where the ochiudo (defeated soldiers who fled the enemy) settled in Mino and became farmers. Due to these backgrounds, the people of Mino are said to have always been cautious about preparing for the invasion of foreign enemies. On the surface, Mino people are mild-mannered and friendly, but they hide their tenacity behind them (Takemitsu 2001). Then, let us examine how these provincial differences are reflected in the municipal power in different regions and areas of Gifu Prefecture today.

3.3 Population of Gifu Prefecture Today Before we discuss the population of Gifu Prefecture in detail by the municipality, let us examine the changing population and demographic situation in Gifu Prefecture as a whole. Statistics come from the recent report compiled by the Statistics Division of Gifu Prefecture (Gifu Prefecture 2021).

3.3 Population of Gifu Prefecture Today

73

3.3.1 Population Changes in Gifu Prefecture According to the 2015 national census, the population of Gifu Prefecture was 2,031,903 (17th in Japan). Approximately 49,000 people have decreased (−2.3%) in the five years since the previous national census in 2010. The rate of decrease is the 23rd largest among the 47 prefectures (Gifu Prefecture 2021). It is also 3,570 (0.2%) less than the 2015 population predicted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (hereafter referred to as IPSS) based on the national census up to 2010 (IPSS 2013). Furthermore, the later IPSS report predicts that from 2015 to 2045, the population of Gifu Prefecture is expected to decrease by 23.4% to become about 1.56 million (IPSS 2018). In addition, the average age for the people in Gifu Prefecture in 2045 will be 52.1 years old, 5.2 years increase from 46.9 years old in 2015 (GD Freak 2020). The “Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008–2012” (MHLW 2014) reveals that the average number of babies born in a year in Gifu Prefecture from 2008 to 2012 was 17,013. The births per 1,000 people are 8.3 (national average 8.4), which is the 21st out of 47 prefectures. In addition, the report describes that the total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.49, the 20th of the total 47 prefectures. The latest “Summary of life expectancy by municipality in 2015” released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW 2018) reports that the average life expectancy at birth of Gifu Prefecture in 2015 is 81.00 years for men, 0.23 years longer than the national average, and 86.82 years for women, 0.19 years shorter than the national average. According to the projected population of Gifu Prefecture in 2045 (IPPSS 2018) there will be major changes in the population structure in the coming 30 years. Of the total population more than one-third of the people in Gifu Prefecture (38.7%) will be older adults 65 and over, nearly one-quarter (22.7%) of the people will be old–old 75 and over. In addition, the ratio of the older adults 65 and over to the working-age population will be 100 to 130. Thus, Gifu Prefecture in 2045 will be a society in which 1.3 young adult and middle-aged people support one older adults 65 and over (IPSS 2018, and see Table 3.2 shown later in this Sect. 3.5). Looking at young women between the ages of 20 and 39, who are expected to play a central role in childbearing and child-rearing, will decrease dramatically in the future. In 2015, these women in Gifu prefecture amount to 219,000, and are projected to decrease by nearly 40% to 131,600 by 2045 (Gifu Prefecture 2021). In addition, reviewing changes in the total fertility rate (TFR) for women in Gifu Prefecture, we note a somewhat unusual pattern. That is, while the TFR is on the increasing trend (2000: 1.47 and 2015: 1.56), both the number of women in the procreation age (15–49), and the total number of newborn babies continue to decline (2000: 467,533 women; 20,276 births, and 2015: 383,480 women; 15,464 births) (Gifu Prefecture 2021). It would be because in Gifu Prefecture the rate for women never married in both the 30–34 and 35–39 age brackets increased dramatically (30–34: 1970: 8.0%; 2015: 30.1%; and 35–39: 1970: 5.0%; 2015: 19.7%) (Gifu Prefecture 2021). Furthermore, the rate for lifetime singlehood11 for the women in Gifu Prefecture

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also increased steeply (1970: 2.7%; 2015: 10.0%) although the rate is not as high as the national average counterparts (1970: 4.3%; 2015: 14.1%) (IPSS 2021). This happens because the TFR is based on the total number of the procreative women, while the actual number of baby births comes mostly from the married women in Japan. Although cohabitation is becoming a culture among Japanese couples, upon giving birth to their first babies cohabiting couples are most likely to resolve their cohabiting unions with traditional marriages (Kumagai 2008, 2015).

3.3.2 Demographic Variations in Gifu Prefecture by Municipality As discussed earlier, the population of Gifu Prefecture in 2015 was 2,031,903. We wonder, however, where in Gifu Prefecture these people habit more, and less as well. Of the total 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture Gifu-shi (#➀ on Fig. 3.1) has the highest population in Gifu Prefecture at 406,735 (20.0%), followed by Ogaki-shi (#➁ on Fig. 3.1) at 159,879 (7.9%), Kakamigahara-shi (#➂ on Fig. 3.1) at 144,690 (7.1%), Tajimi-shi (# on Fig. 3.1) at 110,441 (5.4%), and Kani-shi (# on Fig. 3.1) at 98,695 people (4.9%). The population of these five municipalities amount to 45% of Gifu Prefecture, and these municipalities are all in the southern part of the prefecture and in the Mino region. The least populated municipality, on the other hand, is Shirakawa-mura (# on Fig. 3.1) at 1,609 (0.07%), followed by Higashishirakawamura (# on Fig. 3.1) at 2,261 (0.1%), Hichiso-cho (# on Fig. 3.1) at 3,876 (0.2%), Tomika-cho (# on Fig. 3.1) at 5,564 (0.3%), and Sekigahara-cho (# on Fig. 3.1) at 7,419 (0.4%) (Gifu Prefecture 2021). We call for the reader’s attention, however, that the population size does not necessarily correspond to the municipal power which each of the municipalities possesses. In fact, the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 of the least populated municipality of Shirakawa-mura is −26.4% as opposed to the highest of Mizuho-shi (2.3%), and the lowest of Shirakawa-cho (−59.0%). In addition, it seems to be difficult to identify any clear difference in Hida vs. Mino provincial variations for the population and the projected population increase rate in Gifu Prefecture (see Fig. 3.2).

3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power: Gifu Prefecture, Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho Municipal power measurements of Gifu Prefecture such as the household type, the marriage power, the annual population sustaining power of 2013, and the projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 are compared and contrasted by area, as

3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and …

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Fig. 3.2 Projected population increase rates by the municipality for Gifu Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool, this figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 18 Mar 2021

well as the selected municipalities of Mizuho-shi, of the Gifu area, Hida Province, Minokamo-shi and Shirakawa-cho of the Chuno area, Mino Province (see Table 3.1). Reasons for selecting these three municipalities are as follows: In Mizuho-shi (#➄ in Fig. 3.1) (the population in 2015: 54,354 is projected to increase to 55,602 by 2045) the population increase rate is projected to be the highest among all the 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture from 2015 to 2045 (2.3%). In Minokamo-shi (# in Fig. 3.1) where the population in 2015 is 55,384 and is projected to be 52,813 by 2045 with a −4.6% projected population increase rate, which is the second highest among all the 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture. Then, Shirakawa-cho (# in Fig. 3.1) is a town with a population of 8,392 in 2015, the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 (−59.0%) is the lowest in Gifu Prefecture (Gifu Prefecture 2021, IPSS 2018). As each municipality possesses its own municipal powers, close analyses will provide insights that can prevent them from becoming shrinking societies. For easy reference, these municipalities are circled in red in Fig. 3.1. Despite the fact that the proportion of generational family households in the Hida area is much higher than other areas, the reverse pattern is observed in the marriage power. In other words, the provincial difference between Hida and Mino does not seem to be operating in present-day Gifu Prefecture. The rate of the generational family household is higher in the Hida area, but the marriage power for the Seino area is lower than its Hida area counterpart. When we look at indicators for both the population-sustaining power and the projected population increase rate, it seems the

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Table 3.1 Municipal power of Gifu Prefecture: Gifu area, Seino area, Chuno area, Tono area, Hida area, Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho Municipality

Generational family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2015 (‰)a

Annual populationsustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rate 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average

13.29

5.10

−0.19

−16.3

Gifu Prefecture average

25.02

4.40

−0.50

−23.4

Gifu area (9)

18.17

4.98

0.00

−17.8

Seino area (11)

26.67

3.75

−0.79

−33.2

Chuno area (13)

26.62

4.11

−1.06

−33.0

Tono area (5)

22.38

4.18

−0.77

−28.6

Hida area (4)

34.00

3.85

−1.40

−36.5

Mizuho-shi (Gifu area)

15.38

5.80

0.90

2.3

Minokamo-shi (Chuno area)

18.01

5.17

0.39

−4.6

Shirakawa-cho (Chuno area)

38.97

2.40

−2.27

−59.0

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2020), b MIAC (2014), c IPSS (2018). This table is compiled and constructed by the author

Hida region lags behind other areas in Gifu Prefecture, but the Gifu area is ahead of other areas. It might be that being in the vicinity of the capital city of Gifu Prefecture families in the Gifu area are younger than other areas, hence the marriage power is higher (see Table 3.1). The 2020 report on yearly population increase rates by the municipality in each prefecture12 reveals that the top 10 of the 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture in 2019 are not equally divided among areas. That is, five of them are in the Chuno area, four in the Gifu area, and one in the Seino area, none in the Tono and/or Hida areas. It indicates that the annual population increases in Gifu Prefecture today occur more actively in the southern part of the prefecture. These municipalities are Tomika-cho (0.96%, ranking at 73rd of the 1,724 municipalities as of December 31, 2019), Ginan-cho (0.93%, 81st), Mizuho-shi (0.67%, 124th), Minokamo-shi (0.60%, 148th), Sakahogi-shi (0.46%, 193rd), Kani-shi (0.15%, 296th), Kitagatacho (−0.08%, 404th), Mitake-cho (−0.13%, 431st), Oogaki-shi (−0.14%, 442nd), and Kasamatsu-cho (−0.21%, 480th). We should note, however, of all the 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture only the top six reveal the natural population increase, but that of the remaining 36 municipalities are all declined (Nikkei BP 2020, Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2020). These findings may suggest a not-so-distinctive pattern of regional variations within Gifu Prefecture, but indicate slightly more tendency in the northern Hida region possessing a traditional and population declining tendency over the Mino region. It may be the result of the historical development of these two provinces, i.e., that neither Hida nor Mino had an influential family clan who controlled it as one country emerged, similar to Fukui Prefecture of Echizen and Wakasa provinces as we have discussed in Chap. 2.

3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and …

77

When we look at the three municipalities selected for detailed study of their municipal power measurements in Gifu Prefecture—Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho—the proportions of generational family households in Shirakawacho differ significantly from the other two. This corresponds to the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045; both Mizuho-shi and Minokamo-shi are way above the prefectural average, while Shirakawa-cho is far below. It indicates that although Gifu Prefecture as a whole still maintains the traditional sociocultural characteristics of traditional agricultural society, population-growing municipalities such as Mizuho-shi and Minokamo-shi may have a sizable proportion of households without any older adults. At the same time, it should be noted that both the population growing municipality of Minokamo-shi and the population shrinking of Shirakawa-cho are located in the same Chuno area (see Table 3.1). The impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture in 2013 is proved to be significant (Y = −2.946 + 0.502X, variance explained R2 = 0.383, p = 0.000). When we look at the pattern of distribution of the marriage power of 42 municipalities, it seems as if those in the Gifu area tend to show high in the marriage power, and the projected population increase rate as well. It is in accord to what we have discovered that the marriage power as a significant contributor to the population increase rate in Gifu Prefecture. However, it is still puzzling that both the Minokamo-shi, a population increasing municipality with high marriage power, and Shirakawa-cho, an acutely population declining municipality and low in the marriage power are located in the same Chuno area of the ancient Mino Province, and present-day Gifu Prefecture. There must be unique municipal power to each of these municipalities not measured so far for that affect the making of each of their outlook. It confirms our approach for the issue of shrinking Japan that municipal powers of Gifu Prefecture must be analyzed separately by each municipality contributing to the projected population increase in 2045, and not Gifu Prefecture as a whole. Let us analyze Mizuho-shi, Minokamoshi, and Shirakawa-cho in detail later in the chapter (see Table 3.2 presented in the following section).

3.5 Population Changes by Age Group: Gifu Prefecture, Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho 3.5.1 Population Changes by Age Group in Gifu Prefecture Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Gifu Prefecture are presented using the G-Census GPS geographic tool. It is clear that population decline would be accelerated throughout Gifu Prefecture regardless of region/area except for a few municipalities. Municipalities whose projected population decrease rate are relatively low are Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Ginan-cho. On the other hand, in municipalities such as Shirakawa-cho, Hichiso-cho, Ibigawa-cho,

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and Higashishirakawa-mura the population decrease rates from 2010 to 2040 are extremely high (see Fig. 3.2). With projected population decrease rates in Shirakawacho of −57.3% from 2010 to 2040 (IPSS 2013) and −59.0% from 2015 to 2045, the town is said to be on the verge of extinction (IPSS 2013, 2018). The proportion of older adult 65 and over within the total population of Gifu Prefecture in 2015 was 28.1%, slightly higher than the national average (26.6%). The projection for the older adults by 2045 will reach as high as 38.7%. In other words, it is expected that nearly 4 out of 10 people of Gifu Prefecture will be older adults by that time (see Table 3.2). Table 3.2 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Gifu Prefecture, Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old–old 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Gifu Prefecture

10.7

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

24.0

18.8

15.3

14.0

13.2

11.8

11.1

Working population 15–64

66.3

68.5

66.5

61.9

58.7

56.4

54.3

50.3

Older adults 65+ population

9.7

12.7

18.2

24.1

28.1

31.7

34.6

38.7

3.4

5.1

7.5

11.8

13.6

19.0

21.0

22.7

Old–old 75+ population Mizuho-shi

10.9

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

26.4

19.7

17.1

16.4

16.3

15.5

14.7

Working population 15–64

66.6

72.1

71.0

67.2

64.1

62.8

61.2

56.9

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

8.2

11.9

16.3

19.6

21.7

24.1

28.5

2.5

3.2

4.6

7.0

8.3

12.4

13.3

15.0

Old–old 75+ population Minokamo-shi

14.5

1980 1990 2000 2000 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.8

18.7

16.4

15.6

15.5

14.8

13.8

13.6

Working population 15–64

66.4

68.5

67.2

64.9

62.0

59.9

58.1

53.8

Older adults 65+ population

9.8

12.8

16.3

19.5

22.5

25.3

28.1

32.6

Old–old 75+ population

3.5

5.1

6.9

9.9

11.1

15.0

16.8

18.5

Shirakawa-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

21.3

18.4

14.9

11.2

9.3

6.8

5.3

4.5

Working population 15–64

62.4

59.4

53.6

50.9

47.7

39.5

31.8

25.3

Older adults 65+ population

16.3

22.2

31.5

37.9

43.0

53.6

62.9

70.2

6.6

9.7

14.5

23.5

26.6

33.3

43.3

51.4

Old–old 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSS (2018)

3.5 Population Changes by Age Group …

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3.5.2 A Brief History and Population Changes in Mizuho-shi The reason for selecting Mizuho-shi as one of our detailed studies is that the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 is the highest of all the 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture. Mizuho-shi (#➄ in Fig. 3.1) is located northwest of the Nobi Plain, sandwiched between Gifu-shi (#➀ in Fig. 3.1) where the prefectural office is located, and Ogaki-shi (#➉ in Fig. 3.1), which is said to be the second largest city in Gifu Prefecture. Both cities can be reached in about 6 min. The clear stream of the Nagara River runs to the east of the city, and the Ibigawa River runs to the west (Mizuho City 2019). “Mizuho” appears in Kojiki (Japan’s oldest historical record compiled in 712) and Nihon Shoki (Chronicles of Japan compiled in 720) as the nickname of Japan as “Toyoashihara no Mizuho no Kuni” (a rich country where the strong reeds and the rice ears grow everywhere). If you think about it as a legend explaining the area, Yamatohime-no-Mikoto (said to be the 4th princess of Emperor Suinin), who was ordered by Emperor Suinin (said to be the 11th emperor of Japan), went to Ikura River Palace in Mino Province (currently Ikura, Mizuho-shi) in search of a place to worship Amaterasu Omikami (Sun Goddess, a humanized Shinto god in Japan). It is said that she stayed and then went down the river from Namazu to Ise. From this legend, we can see that this area was cultivated from an early age, and was a strategically important spot in Japan on the Nakasendo (Mizuho City 2019). The Nakasendo is one of the five essential highways constructed by the Edo Shogunate. The Edo Shogunate developed five highways starting from Nihonbashi in Edo (i.e., the Tokaido, Nakasendo, Koshu Dochu, Oshu Dochu, Nikko Dochu) to facilitate information transmission and goods transportation due to political and military needs centered on Edo. The distance of the Nakasendo is 135 ri (about 530 km) from Nihonbashi in Edo to Sanjo Ohashi in Kyoto, and there are 69 post stations. In Mizuho-shi, there are historic sites related to the Nakasendo, as well as Mieji-juku, which is the 55th post station after crossing the Gorokubashi River (currently the Goroku River) starting from Edo Nihonbashi. Even today, if you use the Tokaido Shinkansen bullet train, it is in a convenient location to Tokyo in 3 h, and to Osaka in 1.5 h. Mizuho-shi was born in 2003 by the merger of Hozumi-cho and Sunami-cho. The population at the time of the merger was 47,449, but the population growth rate is the highest in Gifu Prefecture. Based on the legend of “Mizuho no Kuni” which implies the rich country the name of “Mizuho-shi” came about with the population of 47,449. Thus, as a city, Mizuho-shi possesses a relatively short history (Mizuho City 2019). Mizuho-shi boasts one of the highest population growth rates in the prefecture, and is characterized by the youngest average age of citizens as well, about 40 years old (2010). The city is roughly divided into four areas, north, south, east, and west. The center of the city is the eastern part where JR (Japan Railways) Hozumi Station is located, and the western area near Ogaki-shi is becoming more residential. However, Mizuho-shi is a small city with a distance of about 6 km from east to west, about

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9 km from north to south, and it is not difficult to move around in the city because there are community buses running (Mizuho City 2019). Mizuho-shi is known as the birthplace of Fuyu persimmons, the most produced variety of persimmons in Japan. Persimmons have been cultivated in Gifu Prefecture for a long time. Among the persimmons cultivated in Ikura, Mizuho-shi during the Meiji era, Mr. FUKUSHIMA Saiji developed to grow persimmons with excellent shape and flavor. It began to grow as a new variety, and was named “Fuyu” in 1890. Even today, its mother tree is carefully preserved in Ikura as a natural monument designated by the city. Fuyu persimmons produced in Mizuho-shi are shipped not only within the prefecture, but also to Aichi Prefecture and the Kanto and Kansai regions (Mizuho City 2019). As of March 31, 2021 the total population of Mizuho-shi is 55,242 (including 2,373 foreign nationals) with 20,863 households. It is the only municipality in Gifu Prefecture whose population is projected to increase from the national census in 2015 (54,354) to the projected one of 2045 (55,602 with a 2.3% increase rate). After hitting its peak in 2030 (57,448), the population is projected to begin declining (IPSS 2018, Mizuho City 2021a). Although the rate and speed of the shrinking population in Mizuho-shi is the least acute in Gifu Prefecture, it is occurring via fertility decline and population aging. The proportion of the child population in Mizuho-shi in 1980 was above a quarter of the total population, but it is projected to reduce by nearly half, i.e., one out of every 7. On the contrary, the proportion of the older adults 65 and over population was just on the verge of aging level (7.0%) in 1980 and was 19.6% in 2015, which is far below the national average (26.6%) reflecting Mizuho-shi being a relatively new municipality with the younger adult population. In the future, the aging rate will increase to reach 28.5% by 2045 but will be much lower than the projected rates for the national average (36.8%) and for Gifu Prefecture (38.7%) (see Table 3.2, IPSS 2018). When we look at changes in the working population of Mizuho-shi, it has been on the declining trend since 1990 and is projected to be 56.9% of the total population by the year 2045, which is slightly higher than the national average (see Table 3.2). Then, why there is a relatively favorable proportion of the working population in Mizuho-shi. In addition, according to the latest “2015 Life Table by Municipalities,” published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on April 17, 2018, the average life expectancy in Mizuho-shi in 2015 (life expectancy at birth) is 0.3 years shorter than the national average for men (80.5 years), and 0.1 years shorter than the national average for women (86.9 years) (MHLW 2018). When we think about the relatively young adult population with family rearing in Mizuho-shi, child-friendly environments of the city are ideal for them to lead everyday living. For example, there are 24 city parks in Mizuho-shi, and many of them are spacious and have plenty of playsets. Therefore, there is no problem with places where children can play. In addition, there are two spacious green parks where you can enjoy walking and bird watching (Mizuho City 2021b). The child-rearing generation is well-supported by various city programs. There are eight public daycare centers, one private daycare center, two privately certified.

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The city provides free early childhood education and childcare for children in the 3–5-year-old class, and 0–2-year-old children of households exempt from municipal tax. It is based on the viewpoint of the importance of early childhood education that cultivates the basis for a lifelong personality formation. In addition, it is one of the countermeasures against the declining birthrate to reduce the burden of childcare and education costs (Mizuho City 2021b). These child-rearing-friendly family policies would be one of the essential reasons for Mizuho-shi to enjoy the population growing situations.

3.5.3 A Brief History and Population Changes in Minokamo-shi Minokamo-shi (# in Fig. 3.1) is located in the southern part of the Chuno area in Gifu Prefecture with a population of 57,171 and 23,205 households (as of April 1, 2021). Minokamo-shi is one of the few municipalities in Gifu Prefecture whose population has been on the rise continuously, ranking at the 11th of 42 municipalities in Gifu Prefecture, and comprises 2.7% of the total prefectural population in 2015. The city is built on the backdrop of a rich environment with green mountains and pure water. It is said that Minokamo-shi and the surrounding land have a history of about 200 million years. The current terrain is shaped in ancient times, and the many steps of river terraces show its remnants. This area is also known as a treasure trove of fossils. Fossils of mammals and plants have been found on the banks of the Kiso River, which allows many creatures to live naturally. The environmental surroundings of Minokamo-shi are shaped and colored in these manners (Minokamo City Office 2015, Gifu Prefecture 2021). Due to the results of recent excavations, the figures of people who lived in the Jomon, Yayoi, and Kofun periods from the Paleolithic period are being revived. Many potteries used by people who lived with the river and moved to this area have been found. And the history after that can be found in many historical documents. It is known that it was a noble manor in the Middle Ages, and in the Edo period, the Hachiya, which was the territory of the Owari domain, was also famous as the production center of Hachiya persimmons. Since ancient times, this area has been known as a transportation hub. It is reported that Ota prospered as a post town on the Nakasendo on land, and has played an important role as a relay point for the Kiso River transportation since the Middle Ages on rivers (Minokamo City Office 2015). In this way, Minokamo is a city that has developed in harmony with rich nature and culture, and the city was created in 1954 (with the population of 31,144) upon merging nine neighboring municipalities (Oota-cho, Kobi-cho, Yamanoue-mura, Hachiyamura, Kamono-mura, Ibuka-mura, Shimoyoneda-mura, and parts of Miwa-mura, and Wachi-mura). The city of Minokamo produced great ancestors, including literary master TSUBOUCHI Shoyo13 and historian TSUDA Sokichi.14 Thus, the city should

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look ahead to the future while valuing the wisdom, culture, history, and nature of predecessors (Minokamo City Office 2015). The total population of Minokamo-shi in the 2015 national census was 55,384, a 1.2% increase from the previous national census in 2010. The rate of increase is the 209th highest among all municipalities (1741 as of October 1, 2015). However, it is 899 people (1.6%) less than the projected population in 2015 by the IPSS based on trends up to the 2010 national census, which is slightly below the forecast (IPSS 2018). Looking at the population of Minokamo-shi by-age group we note that children aged 0–14 have been flat in recent years, but is projected to reduce to about one in eight. Similarly, the working-age population 15–64 also continues to decline. On the other hand, the number of older adults 65 and over continues to increase, and is projected to be one-third of the city population by 2045 (see Table 3.2). The population pyramid of Minokamo-shi in 2015 reveals that a thick population in the 30 s to early 40 s, but there are many people in their early 60 s also (Gifu Prefecture 2021). However, the population of Minokamo-shi is expected to be approximately 53,000 by 2045, which is a 4.6% decrease from 2015 to 2045 (IPSS 2018). Then, the average age of the people in the city in 2045 will increase by 4.9 years from 43.3 in 2015 to 48.2 in 2045 (GD Freak 2020). The proportion of older adults 65 and over (aging rate) in the total population of Minokamo-shi in 2015 was 22.5%, 4.1 points lower than the national average (26.6%). It is the 133rd from the lowest among all the municipalities nationwide (1741 as of April 1, 2017, including 23 wards in Tokyo). In the future, the aging rate will increase by 10.1% by 2045, and is expected to reach more than 3 out of 10 people (32.6%) will become older adults 65 and over (see Table 3.2, IPSS 2018). According to the “Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008– 2012,” the average number of babies born in Minokamo-shi from 2008 to 2012 was 498/year, and is 9.9‰ per 1,000 people (against the national average of 8.4‰), which is the 145th out of 1,741 municipalities nationwide. Furthermore, the TFR (total fertility rate), is 1.57, and ranks at the 514th out of the total municipalities nationwide (MHLW 2014). In addition, according to the latest “Summary of life expectancy by municipality in 2015” published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on April 17, 2018, the average life expectancy of Minokamo-shi in 2015 (life expectancy at birth) is 81.2 years old for men, and 87.4 years old for women, both are 0.4 years longer than the national average (MHLW 2018). Another notable point about the population of Minokamo-shi is that the proportion of foreign residents in the city is quite high. That is, of the 59,741 foreign residents in Gifu Prefecture in 2020, such a number in Minokamo-shi (5,583) accounts for 9.3%, and the ratio of foreigners to the population is 9.8% (No. 1 in the prefecture) (Gifu Prefecture 2021). Then, we come to the question as to the reason why a high proportion of foreign nationals residing in Minokamo-shi. There are many factories in Minokamo-shi, where Japanese Brazilians and Filipinos work. As stated above, nearly one out of ten total population of the city is foreign nationals today, and this number used to be

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even higher. However, due to the global financial crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the number of Japanese-Brazilian workplaces decreased, and the Sony factory in Minokamo-shi was closed several years ago. Thus, the number of Japanese Brazilian returning to their home countries increased, hence their number has dropped sharply, while the number of Filipinos is on the rise (Gifu Prefecture 2021). There seems to be a tendency that there are more Japanese Brazilians in the Furui district of Minokamo-shi because of the Sony factory. There are more Filipinos in the Ota district, where the city hall is located. The reason why there are more Japanese Brazilians in the Furui district is because the infrastructure is in the place with many shops carrying goods especially for the Brazilians, which makes the Brazilians convenient for a living (Gifu Prefecture 2021).

3.6 Radar Chart of Gifu Prefecture: Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart with 14 socioeconomic indicators of Gifu Prefecture for Mizuho-shi, Minokamo-shi, and Shirakawa-cho (see Fig. 3.3). (For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 1.7, Volume I of this book.) In glancing at Fig. 3.3, we immediately note that the overall pattern of these 14 socio-economic indicators for Mizuho-shi, and Minokamo-shi resemble each other, Minokamo-shi Mizuho-shi Shirakawa-cho

Traffic Safety Employment

Security

Wealth

Life Expectancy

Finance

Hospitals

Child Welfare

Revenue

Municipal GDP

Older Adult Welfare

Social Population Growth

TFR

Natural Population Growth

Fig. 3.3 Gifu Prefecture radar chart: Minokamo-shi, Mizuho-shi, and Shirakawa-cho. Source This figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva Radar Chart (http://evacva.doc.kyushu-u.ac.jp/app/). Accessed 11 July 2018

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but is quite different from that of Shirakawa-cho counterpart. It is somewhat unexpected to find that the overall evaluation for Mizuho-shi ranks 458th of the total 1,742 municipalities tested throughout Japan. Because of the high projected population increase in 2045, it was thought that the overall ranking would be much higher. Its ranking is much lower than the one of the Minokamo-shi counterpart which ranks 320th. Although both the natural (57th) and the social (127th) population increase rates are high, many of the social indicators of Mizuho-shi are poorly evaluated (security: 1,648th, traffic safety: 1,527th, hospitals: 1,291st, child social welfare: 1,254th). As a consequence, the overall evaluation of Mizuho-shi does not come out so favorably (see Fig. 3.3). As stated already the overall assessment of Minokamo-shi is 320th of 1,742 municipalities in Japan. Its strength comes from the natural population increase rate (166th), the life expectancy (169th), and the social population increase rate (215th). However, Minokamo-shi is weak in such areas as the social welfare for older adults (1,565th), social security (1,544th), traffic safety (1,128th), child welfare (1,038th), and hospitals (928th) (see Fig. 3.3). As most of the economic indicators of the city are higher than those of Mizuho-shi the overall evaluation of Minokamo-shi resulted in higher than that of the Mizuho-shi. As both the natural and the social population increase rates, and the total fertility rate of Minokamo-shi are not evaluated as high as those of Mizuho-shi, the projected population increase rate for Minokamo-shi is expected to be much lower than the Mizuho-shi (see Table 3.1). Thus, it is hoped that Minokamoshi will initiate some effective measures to increase their natural and social population increases. The overall evaluation of Shirakawa-cho is 602nd of the 1,742 municipalities in Japan, and the town has been designated as one of the 896 municipalities most likely to disappear by the year 2040 (Masuda 2014). Why so? Let us examine EvaCva indicators for Shirakawa-cho. Of the 14 indicators tested, two of them are rated quite high, i.e., child welfare (59th), and employment (94th). When we looked at the recent statistics of the employment situation of Shirakawa-cho, 24.0% are employed by the manufacturing sector, and 21.9% in the construction industry (Gifu Prefecture 2021). These employment situations may imply the particular nature of Shirakawa-cho. Indicators such as the social population increase rate (1,601st), older adult welfare (1,575th), the natural population increase rate (1,360th) are rated as critical levels. In addition, other economic indicators are all evaluated poorly. Thus, it seems as if there is no hope for Shirakawa-cho to come out of the disappearing municipality situation. Is it true? Let us examine the municipal power of Shirakawa-cho in detail hoping to find some limelight for the town.

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3.7 Municipal Power of Shirakawa-cho of Chuno Area in Mino Province 3.7.1 An Overview of Shirakawa-cho Shirakawa-cho (# in Fig. 3.1) is located in the eastern part of the Chuno area in the Mino region in the southern central part of Gifu Prefecture. It borders with Geroshi (# ) in the north, Hichiso-cho (# ) in the west, Yaotsu-cho (# ), and Ena-shi (# ) in the south, and Higashishirakawa-mura (# ), and Nakatsugawa-shi (# ) in the east (see Fig. 3.1). It has a vast area of 237.89 km2 , about 24 km from the east to the west, and about 21 km from the north to the south, and about 87% of it is forest. The terrain has a large difference in elevation from 150 to 1,223 m above sea level, the plains are small, and the habitable area is only about 5% of the total. The Hida River of the Kiso River system flows through the western end of the town, and rivers such as the Samigawa, Shirakawa, Kurokawa, and Akagawa extend to the east like fan-shaped, and communities are scattered in the basin (Shirakawa Town Office 2018). Shirakawa-cho is known for having a clear stream and abundant greenery. In recent years, the town has been in the limelight as a tourism and recreation area that makes the most of the beautiful nature. Cultivation of tea that makes the best use of the unique climate created by clear streams is in full production. It is also famous as the “Hinoki cypress town” and the “Shirakawa tea town” (Shirakawa Town Office 2018). The climate of Shirakawa-cho belongs to the inland climate, and the average annual temperature is 12 °C, but it often gets below zero in the winter. In addition, the low temperature from the end of April to the end of May becomes “late frost,” which may cause serious damage to the specialty Shirakawa tea. The annual rainfall is about 2,250 mm, and nearly half of the total rainfall is concentrated in the summer. Furthermore, there is no heavy snowfall (Shirakawa Town Office 2018).

3.7.2 A Brief History of Shirakawa-cho The origin of Shirakawa-cho is unknown. However, the discovery of Kirii Komaruyama Ruins of 400 BC indicates that there were inhabitants around that time. Oyama Hakusan Shrine of Shirakawa-cho is said to be built in the second year of Yoro (718) with Hakusan Hibashi Omikami as the main shrine. It was enshrined at the summit of Mt. Hakusan, 862 m above sea level, and was solicited by Taicho Daishi (Shirakawa Town Office 2018). The enforcement of the town-village system in 1889 (Meiji 22) established Nishi-Shirakawa-mura, Sohara-mura, Kurokawa-mura, Sami-mura, in Kamo-gun (county), and Sakanohigashi-mura, Mugi-gun. In 1953 (Showa 28) Nishi Shirakawamura independently enforces the town system and becomes Shirakawa-cho. In 1954

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(Showa 29), Shirakawa-cho merges with Sakano Higashi-mura. Then, two years later in 1956 (Showa 31) Shirakawa-cho merges with Kurokawa-mura, Sami-mura, and Sohara-mura to become Shirakawa-cho of today (Shirakawa Town Office 2018).

3.7.3 Population Changes in Shirakawa-cho The population of Shirakawa-cho, which exceeded 18,400 at the time of the merger in 1956, has decreased significantly to 16,304 in 1965 and 13,791 in 1975. After that, the decrease has been slowing down, but it has continued to decrease to 12,575 in 1990, 11,784 in 2000, became less than 10,000 for the first time in 2010 (9,530), and continued to decline to 8,392 by 2015 (−11.9% from the previous national census in 2010). The rate of decrease is at the 105th largest among all the 1,741 municipalities nationwide. In addition, the population is 271 (3.1%) less than the 2015 population predicted by IPSS based on the census up to 2010, which is considerably lower than the forecast (IPSS 2018). The speed of the population decline is much faster than the one expected from the 2010 trend. Furthermore, the projected population increase rate from 2015 to 2045 will be −59.0%, and the population is expected to shrink to 3,441. The rate of decrease is the 122nd largest among all the municipalities nationwide. At this time, the average age of the people in the town will increase from 56.3 in 2015 to 69.2 in 2045 (12.9 years increment) (see Table 3.1, IPSS 2013, 2018, Shirakawa Town Office 2018). According to the “Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008– 2012” the average number of babies born in Shirakawa-cho from 2008 to 2012 was 49 per year, which is 5.1 per 1,000 people (national average was 8.4), ranking at the 1,520th of all the municipalities nationwide. The total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.54, and ranks at the 606th nationwide (MHLW 2014). In addition, according to the latest “Summary of life expectancy by municipality in 2015” the average life expectancy of Shirakawa-cho in 2015 is 80.6 years old for men, 0.2 years shorter than the national average, and 86.9 years old for women, 0.1 years shorter than the national average (MHLW 2018). The ratio of older adults 65 and over (aging rate) to the total population of Shirakawa-cho in 2015 was 43.0%. It has already exceeded 40%, which is 16.3% higher than the national average (26.6%). It is the 152nd highest among all the municipalities nationwide. In the future, the aging rate will exceed the marginal settlement level, reaching 53.6% by 2025, and will be as high as more than 7 out of 10 people (70.2%) by 2045 (see Table 3.2). The number of households continues to decline (from 3,275 in 1985 to 2,988 in 2015), and the number of people per household also declines (from 3.24 in 2005 to 2.72 in 2015). The number of living alone households has increased 2.3 times in the 30 years since 1985 (from 309 in 1985 to 699 in 2015). Furthermore, in the past 30 years since 1985, the number of older adult couple households has increased 2.5 times (from 228 in 1985 to 671 in 2015), and the number of single older adult

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households has increased 3.3 times (from 134 in 1985 to 439 in 2015) (Gifu Prefecture 2021).

3.7.4 Municipal Power of Shirakawa-cho Although the population of Shirakawa-cho is in a devastating situation there are outstanding municipal powers to be noted in two areas. They are the smart forestry, and ICT education in public primary and secondary schools. Let us introduce briefly these municipal powers of Shirakawa-cho.

3.7.4.1

Smart Forestry in Shirakawa-cho

When we look at the population distribution by the type of industry in Shirakawa-cho, the municipal power of the town is highlighted. The working population, like the total population, is declining (from 62.4% in 1980 to 47.7% in 2015, see Table 3.2). As for the composition ratio by industry, the number of workers in the primary industry continues to decrease (5% in 2018), and the number of workers in the secondary (27% in 2018) and tertiary (68% in 2018) industries is increasing. Workers in agriculture and forestry are becoming part-time workers and are shifting to production and service industries (Gifu Prefecture 2021). The main industry of Shirakawa-cho is the forestry-related industry, and the majority of employees are involved in the production of the excellent material “Tono cypress,” and the construction of housing using “Tono cypress” as the pillar material. The total area of agricultural land in Shirakawa-cho is 846 ha, with the rice fields 534 ha, and with the tea fields 200 ha out of the total 312 ha fields, and tea production is thriving. The specialty “Shirakawa tea” is the core product, and it is used by consumers not only in the Chubu region but also in the Kanto and Kansai regions as a high-class specialty tea (Shirakawa town Office 2018). In collaboration with the Gifu Academy of Forest Science and Culture of Minoshi,15 Shirakawa-cho is conducting a demonstration experiment to see if the town can proceed with various forest maintenance unmanned in the form of “smart forestry.” When it comes to forestry afforestation and cultivation work, many forest areas have steep slopes, and therefore, are often dangerous. Works using large machines entail a risk of serious labor accidents. Therefore, the town is conducting a test to operate a tree cutting machine unmanned, which will lead to the development of an unmanned machine. In addition, some of the Academy graduates are working in Shirakawa-cho to take part in constructing smart forestry. Wood is the largest resource for the town. Sales channels have been expanding to the Shikoku and Chugoku regions, and even to export to the United States (Gifu Project Network 2020). Research is underway that wood resources can be converted into nanotubes16 and can be used as materials for automobiles and aircraft. In preparation for the establishment of such a next-generation advanced industry, Shirakawa-cho is currently

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developing a system that can utilize the entire tree. For this reason, the town is currently planting trees mainly in Japanese cypress, but it will take 100 years to grow. Thus, in collaboration with the Gifu Academy of Forest Science and Culture the town is also conducting research on planting early maturing trees. Even in the construction, there are more and more cases where solid wood is used as laminated wood rather than being used as it is. The forestry industry is expected to change significantly, and Shirakawa-cho is eager to keep up with these changes in the future with the collaboration of the Academy (Gifu Project Network 2020).

3.7.4.2

Education by Utilizing ICT Promotion Project to Overcome the Handicap of Schools in Remote Areas: Case of Shirakawa-cho

When it comes to the informatization in the education in public schools, it has been long since Japan has been pointed out as her lagging behind the state in the world. Because of that gloomy situation, the Ministry of Education launched the program called GIGA (Global and Innovation Gateway for All) School Plans in December 2019. Sustainable education that fosters creativity at school sites nationwide in order to “realize an educational ICT environment where diverse children are not left behind and can be optimized individually and qualities and abilities can be cultivated more reliably.” The purpose of the GIGA school plans is to realize ICT in the education field with the following two essential objectives (MEXT 2019). First, it aims to deploy each learner’s personal computer in national, public, and private elementary, junior high, and special schools. Second, it is hoped to develop a high-speed school communication network environment that can utilize the cloud space (MEXT 2020). In 2020, many elementary and junior high schools were closed due to the coronavirus pandemic, and therefore, the distance learning was highlighted. In response to this, it was found that there were differences among schools and local governments on the issue of ICT education in primary schools in Japan. Thus, in April the government decided to implement the GIGA school concept ahead of schedule in emergency economic measures (MEXT 2020). Shirakawa-cho being in the remote mountainous location, we may expect that informatization in the primary education environments would be far lag behind. It is good news, however, that the “Public school in ranking 2020 before the initiation of GIGA school programs”17 (Nikkei BP 2021) reports that Shirakawa-cho ranks at the top of all the relevant primary schools, having more than three schools in a municipality, of nine prefectures in the Chubu region including Niigata, Fukui, Ishikawa, Toyama, Nagano, Gifu, Aichi, Shizuoka, and Yamanashi prefectures. When we look at the nationwide, Shirakawa-cho ranks at the fourth of elementary school level with more than five schools in a municipality, and at the fifth of junior high school level with more than three schools in a municipality. Primary education and computerization could be considered another integral municipal power other than the forestry industry in Shirakawa-cho. Then, why is Shirakawa-cho in advance on

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its computerization in the field of primary education? Let us investigate the issue in detail. Most of the primary schools in Shirakawa-cho (5 elementary schools and 3 junior high schools) are small schools with 20 or less students in most grades. Under these very limited educational environments three major problems can be pointed out. First, it often happens that most of the students in the town study at the same nursery school to junior high school. As a consequence, they do not have the opportunity to interact with other schools. Second, due to the terrain of the town, being dominated by forests, it is not realistic to have a group of joint lessons with students from other schools on a daily basis, as the distance to the adjacent school is 15–45 min by car one way. Third, specialized education utilizing cultural facilities, such as the municipal library, is also hindered by distance barriers, making it difficult for students in remote areas to get benefitted (Shirakawa Town Office 2019). Since 2015, the town has been promoting a “demonstration project utilizing ICT in schools” under the commission of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. Then, in 2017 Shirakawa-cho applied for funding to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on the project entitled the “Regional IoT Implementation Promotion Roadmap” which aims at promoting the development of successful models by utilizing ICT/IoT in remote areas. Their application was entitled to the “Promotion of ICT utilization that overcomes distance and time constraints in remote areas.” The project got funded in July 2017 which purports the following four major objectives. They are first, connect small elementary and junior high schools in remote areas with ICT to improve the educational disadvantages of being small. Second, connect public facilities such as schools, municipal offices, contact centers, and municipal libraries in remote areas with ICT to enhance lifelong learning, and respond to emergencies as well. Third, expand learning and living spaces by connecting facilities outside the town with ICT. Fourth, utilize ICT to turn conferences in the town into TV conferences to overcome distance and time handicaps (MIAC 2017). Upon constructing web meeting ICT environments among educational and cultural facilities in Shirakawa-cho, the town is come to be evaluated as possessing topnotch educational environments. More specifically, the above four impending issues have been alleviated in the following manners (Shirakawa Town Office 2019): (1)

(2)

Face-to-face interaction with students from other schools: A joint class is held once a month where elementary school students from Shirakawa-cho gather together. Since they can see each other’s faces, they are able to actively communicate with students of the same generation who usually meet only in limited places such as club activities. Through having opportunities to get interacted with students from other schools students in Shirakawa-cho are in touch with various opinions, and be able to cultivate sociability, increase motivation, interest in learning activities. Faculty and staff now meet at web conferences in principle: It eliminates business trips for faculty and staff meetings, shortening work time. Therefore, the burden on the faculty and staff has been reduced significantly.

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(3)

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Professional education in collaboration with cultural facilities such as the municipal library is now available: By learning how to arrange books in the municipal library and how to select books, it has become possible to enjoy the understanding of the municipal library and learning using books at the same level as students at other schools.

Thus, the introduction of ICT facilities in the primary education in Shirakawacho benefitted in numerous ways of pupils, students, faculty, and staff not merely on their ICT skills, but also various aspects of their lives. This is the very reason why primary schools in a remote rural town of Shirakawa are evaluated excellently on computerization in education.

3.7.5 Unresolved Issues of Shirakawa-cho We highlighted two municipal powers of Shirakawa-cho which in fact are the products of the remote mountainous area. They are the smart forestry industry, and the advanced ICT education in their primary and secondary educational environments. However, in the field of forestry industry, the town confronts with the problem of aging workers and the lack of successors. Concerning the education in Shirakawacho, upon graduating from high school those who aspire to advance to tertiary education leave the town as there are no such programs. Upon completing the tertiary and professional education elsewhere they face with the problem of not being able to return to their native town of Shirakawa-cho as there is no job available for them (Shirakawa Town Office 2021). Then, what could be suggested for Shirakawa-cho to overcome these problems? First, it is important to provide regional education for elementary, junior high, and high school students who will play a leading role in the region in the future, especially taking advantage of the advanced ICT settings in the educational environment. Such education would be a traditional, interactive, and virtual reality. Through the “hometown education,” students can foster understandings and affection for Shirakawa-cho by deepening the involvement with the people, nature, history, and culture. By so doing, the students will come to realize the positive and the negative municipal powers of the town, will think about what they can do for the region, and will nurture the spirit of the “Shirakawa people” who can create jobs in the Shirakawa area. Second, as the coronavirus pandemic proved now people can adopt the lifestyle of remote working.18 Thus, the geographical handicap of Shirakawa-cho being located in the remote mountainous region is not the matter as it used to be. What does matter is to have the people who possess the proper understanding of the municipality of Shirakawa-cho, each of them will become aware of local issues as one’s own matter, and think about what they can do. By continuing such efforts, Shirakawa-cho will enhance the attractiveness, create jobs, and gather people in the town. Even if it does not lead to an increase in the settled population, it is possible to get involved in Shirakawa-cho as a related population or an exchange population. Therefore, Shirakawa-cho will not disappear, but here to stay.

Notes

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Notes 1.

2. 3.

4.

5.

6.

7. 8.

The center of population is the place where an imaginary, flat, weightless, and rigid map of the nation of Japan would balance perfectly if all residents were of equal weight. Until 2000, the center of population of prefectures and the whole country of Japan was calculated on the assumption that the population of the municipality was concentrated at the location of the municipal office. In 2005, however, based on the progress of mergers of municipalities a more precise calculation method for the population center was derived. That is, assuming that the population of the basic unit area is concentrated in the center point of the figure of the basic unit area, the center of population of Japan was calculated based on the center of population of cities, wards, towns, and villages, prefectures and the whole country (Statistics Bureau of Japan 2007). Mizu manju is a Japanese sweet which is eaten during the summer, putting red bean paste inside clear jelly (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020). Yoro no Taki: The Yoro Waterfall is a part of Yoro Park located in the town of Yoro in Yoro County, Gifu Prefecture. The waterfall is 32 m in height and 4 m in width. It is one of the One Hundred Picturesque Waters of Japan. Yoro Soda Pop is made of high-quality water from Yoro. It is well known as the first soda pop made in Japan (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020). The Battle of Sekigahara is the main battlefield in Sekigahara, Fuwa District, Mino Province which took place on September 15, 1600 (Keicho 5) on the lunar calendar. When the date is converted to the current “AD” it is October 21, 1600. It was during the Azuchi-Momoyama period (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). Magome-juku is the 43rd post station of all the 69 stations on the Nakasendo, and is the southernmost post town of 11 Kiso inns (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). The gassho-zukuri village, which forms a beautiful landscape that can be called the original landscape of Japan, was selected as an important traditional architectural preservation district in 1976. In addition, in 1995, along with Gokayama (Toyama Prefecture), Shirakawa-go was registered as a UNESCO World Heritage Site (cultural heritage) as a gassho-zukuri village. Since it has been registered as a World Heritage Site many tourists from Japan and abroad visit there every year. It is a place like “Japan’s hometown” where you can deeply feel the rural culture, life, and lifestyle that are the original scenery of Japan (Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau 2020). Ritsuryo: For more explanation of Ritsuryo refer to Chap. 1, Sect. 1.3.1, Vol. I of this book, and Kumagai (2020). Gundai is a job title in the Muromachi and Edo periods. In the Muromachi period, it was also called Shugodai, and was in charge of police and tax matters. In the Edo period, it referred to the local officials who govern the civil affairs of the area under the direct control of the Shogunate. In the clan, it referred to the local officials who controlled the land. Officials whose stipend were more

92

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10.

11.

12. 13.

14.

15.

3 Gifu Prefecture in the Tosando of the Goki-Shichido …

than100,000-koku were called Gundai, and those with less stipend were called Daikan (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). Kasamatsu Jinya: During the Edo period, the position that controlled the territory under the direct control of the Shogunate in Mino Province, and Kuwanagun, Ise Province. After 1662 there was a camp in Kasamatsu-mura, Hagurigun (currently Kasamatsu-cho, Hashima-gun, Gifu Prefecture), and therefore, it was also called Kasamatsu-gundai (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). Nakasendo is one of the five highways (Tokaido, Nikkokaido, Oshukaido, Nakasendo, and Koshukaido) constructed during the Edo period, and is a highway that connects Nihonbashi in Edo and Sanjo Ohashi in Kyoto via inland (Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles 2011). The lifetime singlehood rate is the percentage of those never married by age fifty. It is derived by averaging out those of ages between the 45–49 and 50–54 age brackets (IPSS 2021). For the explanation of the “Population Increase Rate Ranking 2020” (Nikkei 2020, MIAC 2020) refer to the Note #12 of Chap. 1 in this Volume II. TSUBOUCHI Shoyo (June 22, 1859–Feb. 28, 1935) is a Japanese literary man born in Minokamo, Gifu. After graduating from the University of Tokyo, he became instructor and later professor of the Tokyo Senmon Gakko (later Waseda University). Tsubouchi entered into the limelight in Japan’s literary world with publication of “Shosetsu shinzui” (The Essence of the Novel) (1885–1886). He presented a theory of Japanese modern literature and provided practical case studies in a novel titled “Tosei shosei katagi” (The Character of Today’s Students) (1885–1886). The “Non-idealness Controversy” with MORI Ogai is well known. Tsubouchi also devoted himself to fostering actors and encouraged the Japanese Theater Modernization movements (Shingeki) with his student SHIMAMURA Hogetsu and others. Another of his achievements is as an educator of ethics. In 1928, he completed his translation of the complete works of William Shakespeare (National Diet Library, Japan 2013). TSUDA Sokichi (October 3, 1873–December 4, 1961) is a Japanese intellectual historian in the first half of the 20th century. He is known for studying “Kojiki” and “Nihonshoki” (Kiki) from the perspective of criticizing historical materials (National Diet Library, Japan 2013). Gifu Academy of Forest Science and Culture: Its predecessor was Gifu Prefectural Forestry Junior College, which opened in 1971. Based on experiences in 30 years of training more than 600 forestry engineers the Academy was opened in 2001 as the first forest education and learning institution in Japan in response to the changing times of seeking a wider range of human resources. With the basic principle of “coexistence between forests and people,” the Academy aims at providing the individual guidance by a small number of people, a free and practical curriculum not bound for the existing frameworks, and research and education that focuses on solving local issues (Gifu Academy of Forest Science and Culture Homepage, https://www.forest.ac.jp/about/).

Notes

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17.

18.

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Nanotube: A nanotube is a nanoscale material that has a tube-like structure. Nanotube structures have many applications in the general field of nanotechnology, which is a relatively recent field with much potential, as well as some significant liabilities (technopedia: https://www.techopedia.com/defini tion/3152/nanotube). The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology conducts a “Survey on the actual situation of computerization of education in schools” (hereinafter referred to as “Fact-finding survey”) every year. The survey results released in October 2020 will be the last survey before the GIGA school concept. Based on this survey data, the Nikkei BP calculated and ranked the degree of computerization of public schools by their unique method. This report, the 13th ranking report, was created from the fact-finding survey as of March 1, 2020. For more in detail on the ranking calculation methodology, please refer to its report (Nikkei BP 2021). Remote working: It is the practice of an employee working at their home, or in some other place that is not an organization’s usual place of business (Cambridge English Dictionary, https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/ english/remote-working. Accessed 24 Apr 2021).

References GD Freak. (2020). To-do-fu-ken oyobi shi-ku-cho-son betsu no jinko to setai gurafu pootaru [Portal sites for the population and households by prefecture, and by municipality]. https://jp.gdfreak. com/meta/jp/ppl.html. Accessed 1 Aug 2021. Gifu Prefecture. (2018). Gifu-ken no gaiyo [Summary of Gifu Prefecture]. Updated on August 8. https://www.pref.gifu.lg.jp/page/109.html. Accessed 27 Mar 2021. Gifu Prefecture. (2021). Tokei kara mita Gifu-ken no genjyo [Current situation of Gifu prefecture based on statistics] Statistics Division, Environment and Living Department. https://www.pref. gifu.lg.jp/page/4033.html. Accessed 15 Aug 2021. Gifu Prefecture Tourist Bureau. (2020). Gifu no tabi gaido [Guidebook for traveling Gifu Prefecture]. https://www.kankou-gifu.jp/hitou/kokoroodoru/. Accessed 28 Mar 2021. Gifu Project Network. (2020). Shirakawa machi yakuba: Mokushitsu shigen katsuyo ni okeru jisedaigat no jisshojikken ya kenkyu wo susumeru [Shirakawa-cho Promotes next-generation demonstration experiments and research on the utilization of wood resources]. https://gifu42.net/ pa_19/. Accessed 21 Apr 2021. Japanese-English Bilingual Corpus of Wikipedia’s Kyoto Articles. (2011). Sekigahara no Tatakai. https://alaginrc.nict.go.jp/WikiCorpus/index_E.html. Accessed 28 Mar 2021. Kodansha International. (1983). Kodansha Encyclopedia of Japan. Tokyo: Kodansha. Kumagai, F. (2008). Families in Japan: Changes, Continuities, and Regional Variations. Lanham: University Press of America. Kumagai, F. (2015). Family Issues on Marriage, Divorce, and Older Adults in Japan: With Special Attention to Regional Variations. Singapore: Springer Nature. Kumagai, F. (2020). Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations. Singapore: Springer Nature. Masuda, H. (ed.) (2014). Chihou Shoumetsu [Disappearing Local Regions]. Tokyo: Chuko-shinsho.

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Minokamo City Office. (2015). Minokamo-shi no rekishi [History of Minokamo-shi], updated February 20. https://www.city.minokamo.gifu.jp/shimin/contents.cfm?base_id=104&mi_id=4& g1_id=15&g2_id=68#guide. Accessed 13 Apr 2021. Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology [MEXT]. (2020). GIGA sukuru koso no jitsugen ni tsuite [About the realization of the GIGA school concept]. Enacted in December. https://www.mext.go.jp/a_menu/other/index_00001.htm. Accessed 21 Apr 2021. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare [MHLW]. (2014). Heisei 20-nen-24-nen jinkodotai hokenjyo shi-cho-son betsu toukei [Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008– 2012] released February 13. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/other/hoken14/ index.html. Accessed 7 Apr 2021. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014). Heisei 26-nen jyumin kihondaichou ni motozuku jinkou, jinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and household statistics for the basic resident register as of January 1, 2014]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/ 01gyosei02_02000062.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2016, released February 13 2012. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare [MHLW]. (2018). Heisei 27-nen shi-ku-cho-son betsu seimeihyou no gaikyou [Summary of life expectancy by municipality in 2015]. https://www. mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/life/ckts15/index.html. Accessed 11 Apr 2021. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2017). Enkakuchi no kyoriteki jikanteki na seiyaku wo kokufukusuru ICT katsuyo suishin jigyo [Promotion of ICT utilization that overcomes distance and time constraints in remote areas]. https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_sosiki/ joho_tsusin/top/local_support/ict/jirei/2017_083.html. Accessed 22 Apr 2021. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2020). Jumin kihon daicho ni motozuku jinko, jinkodotai oyobi setaisuu: Reiwa 2-nen 1-gatsu 1-nichi genzai [Population, vital statistics and number of households based on the Basic Resident Register-Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of January 1, 2020], released August 5. https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_s osiki/jichi_gyousei/daityo/jinkou_jinkoudoutai-setaisuu.html. Accessed 17 Dec 2020. Mizuho City. (2019). Mizuho-shi no shokai [Introducing Mizuho-shi], updated June 7. https://www. city.mizuho.lg.jp/1501.htm. Accessed 12 Apr 2021. Mizuho City. (2021a). Mizuho-shi no tokei [Statistics of Mizuho-shi], updated April 8. https://www. city.mizuho.lg.jp/10159.htm. Accessed 12 Apr 2021. Mizuho City. (2021b). Yoji kyouiku • hoiku no mushoka [Free early childhood education and childcare] enacted on April 1. https://www.city.mizuho.lg.jp/9627.htm. Accessed 13 Apr 2021. National Diet Library, Japan. (2013). Kindai Nihonjin no shozo [Portraits of modern Japanese historical figures]. https://www.ndl.go.jp/portrait/. Accessed 13 Apr 2021. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2013). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 22-Heisei 52 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010– 2040]. Population Research Series No.330, December 25. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/bun ken/data/pdf/208521.pdf. Accessed 13 Nov 2017. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2018). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko Heisei 27-Heisei 57 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015– 2045]. News Release on March 30. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/j/shicyoson18/1kouhyo/ gaiyo.pdf. Accessed 31 Mar 2018. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSS]. (2021). Jinko Toukei Shiryoushuu: 2021 [Latest demographic statistics of 2021]. 5http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/ Popular/Popular2021.asp?chap=0. Accessed 18 Aug 2021. Nikkei BP. (2020). Jinko zougen-ritsu ranking 2020-zenkoku toppu 50, jinkoukibo, to-do-fu-ken betsu [Population increase rates of municipalities in 2020—Top 50 municipalities by population size and by prefecture]. Shin Koumin Renkei Saizensen, August 28 issue. https://project.nikkeibp. co.jp/atclppp/080600025/080600003/. Accessed 8 Apr 2021. Nikkei BP. (2021). Koritsu gakko jyouhouka lankingu 2020 [Public School Computerization Ranking 2020], February 16. https://4c281b16296b2ab02a4e0b2e3f75446d.cdnext.stream.ne. jp/auth/bzt/production/2021/02/C21020075/C21020075-001.pdf?__token=J/U7A6OnlJjP+suO lwnEfFu0KaTnc7eHobDqCqd8duA=cf37eecbd36144cd. Accessed 21 Apr 2021.

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Shirakawa Town Office. (2018). Shirakawa-cho no gaiyo [The outlook of the town of Shirakawa]. https://www.town.shirakawa.lg.jp/profile. Accessed 17 Apr 2021. Shirakawa Town Office. (2019). Shirakawa-cho kyouiku iinkai dayori [News from the Shirakawacho Board of Education]. https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/1970584/jp/documents/case/gifu_k amo_shirakawa_edu_case_vcube.pdf. Accessed 22 Apr 2021. Shirakawa Town Office. (2021). Dai 2-ki Shirakawa-cho machi-hito-shigoto sousei sougou senryaku [The 2nd phase of Shirakawa-cho town-people-work creation comprehensive strategy] released March. http://www.town.shirakawa.lg.jp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/93ac118364be 695693ed616ac44d355d.pdf. Accessed 24 Apr 2021. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2007). Wagakuni no jinkojyushin (Heisei 17nen kokuseichosa kekka kara) [The center of population in Japan: Based on the 2005 national census]. Statistics topic No. 22, June 25. https://www.stat.go.jp/data/kok usei/topics/topics22.html. Accessed 27 Mar 2021. Takemitsu, M. (2001). Kenminsei no Nihon Chizu [Characteristics of Japan by Prefecture]. Tokyo: Bungei Shunjyu.

Chapter 4

Epilogue: The Future of Shrinking Japan: What Can Be Done to Create a Sustainable Japan from a Shrinking Japan

Abstract This book has studied the issue of shrinking Japan along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando based on the theoretical framework of the Goki-Shichido and the Baku-Han system. This historical knowledge helps us understand the significance of the regional cultural heritage that remains evident in each municipality today. In Volume I of the book, we found that both Niigata (Sado vs. Echigo provinces) and Ishikawa (Noto vs. Kaga provinces) seem to support the theoretical framework stipulated. In Volume II, municipal powers of Fukui, Nagano, and Gifu prefectures were discussed. Nagano Prefecture consists of only Shinano Province, but significant regional and areal variations in the population decline and municipal powers are identified, due primarily to geographic factors unique to each municipality. Neither of the two other prefectures we analyzed, Fukui (Echizen vs. Wakasa provinces) and Gifu (Hida vs. Mino provinces), proved any significant pattern of regional variations in the population decline and the municipal power based on the Goki-shichido theoretical framework. However, we are quite successful in identifying the significant degree of regional variations in population decline within the same prefecture. In the era of the coronavirus pandemic, three issues relating to the shrinking Japan have been discussed. First, in discussing “shrinking Japan in the era of coronavirus pandemic,” we elaborated on three issues, namely the accelerated decline in the number of births, the shrinking child population under the age of 15, and the issue of the 2025 problem in demography. The second issue we discussed is the “new normal lifestyle,” followed by the third issue of “from shrinking to sustainable Japan.” In the wake of COVID-19, we are obliged to practice the new normal lifestyle, and consequently, there has emerged a growing interest in rural remote communities. Now is the time to ask how to confront the shrinking Japan with the municipal power to revitalize disappearing municipalities to create sustainable Japan. Our suggestion to create exchange and related populations is hopefully the answer to this difficult task. Such efforts will alter Japan from a shrinking to a sustainable society. For our future studies, we hope to analyze the so-called disappearing municipalities in other circuits on the Goki-Shichido, not covered in the current or previous studies of this author. The regions of our future investigation will be along the Tokaido, Nankaido, Saikaido, Sannyodo, Sannindo, and Hokkaido.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. Kumagai, Shrinking Japan and Regional Variations: Along the Hokurikudo and the Tosando II, Population Studies of Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6609-4_4

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Keywords Coronavirus pandemic · New normal lifestyle · From shrinking to sustainable Japan · Regional variations · The first baby boom period (1947–1949) · The second baby boom period (1971–1974) · The shrinking child population under the age of 15 · The issue of the 2025 problem in demography · Work from home (WFH) · Working remotely · Telecommuting · Telework · Three-Cs (Closed spaces, Crowded places, and Close-contact settings) · New normal lifestyle · Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (Lehman Shock) · Lockdown · Social distances · Online meetings · Web conferencing · Related population · Exchange population · Settled/Resident population · Disappearing municipalities · Tokaido · Nankaido · Saikaido · Sannyodo · Sannindo · Hokkaido · Goki-Shichido · Baku-Han system In writing this epilogue, the author expresses her mixed feelings. That is, it was less than a year ago that at the very end of her previous book entitled Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, she wrote that under the coronavirus pandemic “we must adopt and adjust to lifestyles different from those we are used to, … a new way to look at and live in the shrinking Japanese society might give suggestions for generating a new perspective for pursuing our lives in this difficult time” (Kumagai 2020). The author feels that what she said on the issue of shrinking Japan seems to be emerging today. In this epilogue, therefore, let us discuss the following three issues briefly: shrinking Japan in the era of coronavirus pandemic, the new normal lifestyle, and from shrinking to sustainable Japan.

4.1 Shrinking Japan in the Era of Coronavirus Pandemic 4.1.1 Declining Number of Births Accelerated under the Coronavirus Pandemic According to the recent vital statistics (preliminary report) released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on June 4, 2021, the number of births in Japan in 2020 was 840,832, the lowest ever for the fifth consecutive year. The annual number of births in Japan was about 2.7 million during the first baby boom period (1947– 1949), about 2.1 million during the second baby boom period (1971–1974), and it declined to 2 million by 1975. Since then, it has declined continuously every year, and fell below 1 million in 2016, reaching a record low of about 920,000 in 2018. In addition, the number of births was below 900,000 in 2019, the lowest number since Japan began gathering national demographic statistics in 1899. However, in 2020 it will set a new record low. Furthermore, the number of marriages in 2020 (524,490 cases, minus 73,517 cases from the previous year) decreased as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, which seems to have affected the number of births. In addition, the total fertility rate (TFR) in Japan in 2020 declined to 1.34 from 1.36 in 2019. Japan’s population, which peaked at 128.08 million in 2008, is on track to fall below 100 million around 2050, but the pace of decline is likely to accelerate further in the future (MHLW 2021).

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The number of births this year (2021) is expected to decline significantly, even dropping below 800,000 due to a decrease in the number of marriages as most children in Japan are born to married couples (Kumagai 2008, 2015). On top of that, some couples are delaying having newborns, being afraid of the socioeconomic problems that they may have to confront after the coronavirus pandemic. The declining birthrate is a fundamental problem that will affect the future of the country. Thus, the shock of shrinking Japan is spreading widely throughout the country today. The declining birthrate is a reflection of the “difficulty in living” children and the younger generations are having in today’s society. Countermeasures against the declining birthrate must not consist simply of increasing the number of children born. Such measures must include creating a society in which it is possible to feel confident in having and raising children over a long period of time. The underlying problems of the seriously declining birthrate in Japan today suggest that we must develop new family support measures in the era of the coronavirus pandemic.

4.1.2 The Shrinking Child Population under the Age of 15 Every year on May 5, Japanese Children’s Day, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications publishes a report on the number of children in Japan. As of April 1, 2021, the number of children under the age of 15 decreased by 190,000 from the previous year to 14.93 million, the 40th consecutive year of decline. The ratio to the total population also decreased by 0.1% from the previous year to 11.9%, for the 47th consecutive year. This is the lowest level compared to other countries.1 To the contrary, the percentage of older adults 65 and over increased by 0.3% from the previous year to 28.9%, highlighting the declining fertility and population aging in Japan (MIAC 2021). Of the total number of children, there are 7.65 million boys and 7.28 million girls. By age group, the number of people aged 12 to 14 is 3.24 million, while the number of children aged 0 to 2 is 2.65 million. The proportion of children under the age of 15 reached 35.4% in 1950 after the first baby boom. Since then, however, it has continued to decline, and in 1997, the percentage of people aged 65 and over (15.7%) exceeded the percentage of people under the age of 15 (15.3%) (MIAC 2021). The younger the population, the smaller the number of people, and its proportion to the total population. These facts confirm that declining fertility and population aging in Japan has been accelerating.

4.1.3 The Issue of the 2025 Problem in Demography The issue of the 2025 problem is that all the baby boomers (born 1947 to 1949), who are the largest volume layer of the population in Japan, will become members of the old-old of 75 years old and over in 2025. Thus, the year 2025 is considered the basis

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for the discussion on declining fertility and population aging. Therefore, it is thought that 2025 will be a turning point when society begins to change significantly. In addition, due to the coronavirus pandemic, there have been major changes in various aspects of our lives, such as people’s movements, workstyles, and lifestyles over all of 2020. In particular, due to the rapid spread of work from home (WFH),2 working remotely, or telecommuting, and the avoidance of the “three Cs” (closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) (Government of Japan 2020), population outflow from metropolitan areas and migration/settlement to rural areas are attracting attention. Will changes in Japanese people’s lifestyles and workstyles make people interested in moving out of the Tokyo metropolitan area to the remote rural region? The recent study by Iwata reports to the contrary (Iwata 2021). According to the study, much of the decline in population inflows in Tokyo over the past year can be explained by the outflow of population to the three neighboring prefectures—Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa. In other regions, at present, it will not be effective enough to stop the population decline. The population decline in moving to Tokyo has been centering around the working generation. Possible factors for it would be the relocation to the suburbs due to the widespread practice of WFH (work from home) in the business circle. Nevertheless, it is said that the number of people who want to move out of the Tokyo metropolitan area is increasing in recent years. However, there is a limit to moving out to pursue WFH, and the outflow of the population from Tokyo, in fact, is only to the three neighboring prefectures. Thus, it is quite likely for people to move to neighboring regions rather than migrating to remote areas. Therefore, at present, it is unlikely that the projected population decline in rural areas will change significantly by 2025.

4.2 The New Normal Lifestyle Since 2020, our lives have changed significantly due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection worldwide. Conventional wisdom does not apply to the coronavirus, and therefore, it is essential to lead everyday life while ensuring safety not only in our personal daily life, but also in business. Under such circumstances, the keyword attracting attention is the “new normal.” The meaning of the phrase “new normal” is constantly changing in response to changing times and major incidents. Originally, it was used in the fields of business and economics, describing the era of the global financial crisis that began with the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (in Japan it is commonly called the “Lehman Shock”). It turned into a term that refers to adaptations to the social realities of the coronavirus pandemic (Daiwabo Information System Co., Ltd. 2020, Weblio 2021). The coronavirus pandemic has brought about fundamental structural changes in social life, such as implementing lockdowns and ensuring social distances. In terms of economic activity, business processes themselves are changing, from macro issues

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such as restructuring the supply chain to the promotion of telework and an increase in online meetings. In addition, companies are under pressure to reform work styles at once and respond to the new normal lifestyle. The measures promoted as the new normal will not disappear even if the coronavirus pandemic comes to an end; a new type of society, different from what we have been used to, will be created. The era of the coronavirus pandemic and after will truly be a new normal world. Will the people of Japan migrate to settle into the remote rural countryside, far away from the urban metropolitan area? The current author is quite skeptical of this. In fact, the people in the remote regions are more active in creating the related population. Throughout this book, we have witnessed related populations revitalizing municipalities once considered to be disappearing. We remember the Shiokaze Study Abroad Program of Awashimaura-mura in Niigata Prefecture (Chap. 2, Vol. I), the 6th industry based on the Noto Satoyama and Satoumi of Notocho in Ishikawa Prefecture (Chap. 3, Vol. I), the Tree Picnic Adventure IKEDA of Ikeda-cho in Fukui Prefecture (Chap. 1, Vol. II), Tenryu Tsunagaru Lab of Tenryumura in Nagano Prefecture (Chap. 2, Vol. II), and the possible collaboration of high-tech education and the forestry industry in Shirakawa-cho in Gifu Prefecture (Chap. 3, Vol. II). This is because Japanese people are interested in having contact through the related population (kankei jinko) and having opportunities to experience life in the remote countryside online from home. Then, when the coronavirus pandemic is settled down and some of them want to visit municipalities in the remote countryside to experience life there, it will be easier to encourage them to become an exchange population (koryu jinko) rather than to become part of the resident population. Some of them may even get interested in becoming part of the immigrant-settled population (ijyu teijyu jinko). It is not realistic to expect to increase the settled population without taking these steps. In the population projection based on the national census, these types of populations, such as related and/or exchange, cannot be counted as resident populations, but they still can be regarded as psychologically related to the population. Thus, there is hope for the sustenance of the population in the so-called “disappearing municipalities.”

4.3 Conclusion: From Shrinking to Sustainable Japan The Japanese scholar of demography, Prof. Toshihiko Hara, contends that, in order to alleviate population shrinking, a new society must be generated where gender, generational, and community equalities are fulfilled (Hara 2015, 2020, 2021). If that is the case, a society of the new normal lifestyle would be the one we look to take us from shrinking to sustainable Japan, especially in the era of the coronavirus pandemic. Telework would be a representative of this new normal. With the expansion of WFH and telework, the degree of freedom in choosing a place of residence has increased. Consequently, there are high expectations for the wide acceptance and practice of the lifestyle of working for a company in an urban area while living in a local remote countryside.

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What is necessary for regional revitalization in the future would be to increase the number of telework opportunities in the flow of workstyle reform. Furthermore, taking advantage of networking, building an environment where we can work for companies in various regions regardless of where we live must be reflected in our regional revitalization strategy. In the wake of COVID-19, we are obliged to practice the new normal lifestyle, and as a result, there emerged a growing interest in rural remote communities. Now is the time to ask how to confront the shrinking Japan with the “municipal power” to “revitalize” disappearing municipalities to create sustainable Japan. Our suggestion to create exchange and related populations would hopefully be the answer to this difficult task. Such efforts will alter Japan from a shrinking to a sustainable society. For our future studies, we hope to analyze the so-called disappearing and extinct municipalities in other circuits on the Goki-Shichido, not covered in this author’s current or previous studies (Kumagai 2018, 2020). These regions of our future investigation are along the Tokaido, Nankaido, Saikaido, Sannyodo, Sannindo, and Hokkaido.

Notes 1.

2.

The report also published a comparison of the proportion of children in countries with a population of 40 million or more. Although it is difficult to make a strict comparison due to differences in the timing of the survey and estimation, Japan has the lowest level, while the levels are 12.2% in South Korea (July 1, 2008 at the time of the survey) and 13.3% in Italy (July 1, 2018), followed by 13.6% in Germany (January 1, 2019). China’s child population was 16.8% (December 31, 2019), the United States of America’s was 18.6% (July 1, 2018), and many African nations were above 40% (MIAC 2021). Work from home (WFH) is a concept wherein the employee can do his or her job from home. Work from home (or working from home) gives flexible working hours to the employee and the work is done with ease. Work from home is helpful to enabling work-life balance for the employee, and also helps the company get work done efficiently. Nowadays, most employers are offering this option to their employees. Work from home is a modern work approach enabled through the Internet and mobility wherein, irrespective of the physical location of an individual, work can be done. Work from home is also known as working remotely or telecommuting, which implies that the employee is working from a remote location, usually home (What is Work From Home (WFH) https://www.mbaskool.com/business-concepts/human-res ources-hr-terms/16870-work-from-home.html. Accessed 11 May 2021). There are many other expressions synonymous for work from home. In fact, there are 58 expressions which have similar meaning to WFH (Synonyms for Work From Home: https://www.powerthesaurus.org/work_from_home/syn onyms) Accessed 11 May 2021.

References

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