SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis: Epidemiological Challenges, Social Policies and Administrative Strategies 9811626049, 9789811626043

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Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach Konstantin S. Sharov Editors

SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis Epidemiological Challenges, Social Policies and Administrative Strategies

SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis

Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach · Konstantin S. Sharov Editors

SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis Epidemiological Challenges, Social Policies and Administrative Strategies

Editors Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine National Academy of Sciences Kharkov, Ukraine

Konstantin S. Sharov Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russia

ISBN 978-981-16-2604-3 ISBN 978-981-16-2605-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Preface

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2) causing COVID-19 disease (Coronavirus infectious disease 2019) instigated tremendous and unprecedented epidemiologic containment, the introduction of unexpected social policy and administrative procedures on a scale of the whole world. During the first wave of the pandemic in spring 2020, almost universal organisational and mental chaos in the administrative systems prevented governments of many countries to elaborate on the most effective response to the new viral pathogen quickly. Instead, gloomy apocalyptic statements were most often heard on TV channels from political wannabes, statisticians who misinterpreted simple correlations as cause/effect relations, bloggers, bankers, film actors and other influencers on the Internet [1]. A general reaction of the majority of Western politicians, health organisations and mass media in March–May 2020 may be reduced to a message that “the humanity now witnesses the greatest survival challenge since the end of World War II.” The striking discrepancy between “Western” and “Eastern” modes of combating the new viral threat is obvious. A considerable number of governments of Eastern countries have learned, with a modest and humble attitude, on their mistakes made during the first wave of the pandemic. Most of them tried to adjust their COVID-19related social policy accordingly. On the contrary, a lot of governments of Western countries demonstrated unexplainable devotion to quite limited sets of social and epidemiological procedures, whose effectiveness is rather questionable. It is not unexplainable. In the era of post-colonialism, Westernisation is mainly understood as a complete synonym of globalisation, and globalisation is always presented as a recipe for the whole world, whether the world fights SARS-CoV-2 or any other challenge to its sustainable development. The only officially approved political narrative within the Western “First World” is the humanity’s having to be truly global—and it is the only chance of survival of human beings. A phrase from a recent book on COVID-19 may explain this well, Yet, as in the history of human civilization, we all should be hopeful that humankind will be able to learn and prevail in the end. There will be no exception this time. One of the important lessons that we can probably learn from the Mother Nature in this global fight against COVID-19 is that only by being united as one, as humanity, working together to v

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Preface remove the barriers of races, nation states, political ideologies, religions and special interests, and coexisting harmoniously in an increasingly interconnected and interdependent world, can human beings be saved [2: VII–VIII].

Such a recipe of “humanity salvation” at times of the coronacrisis may be farther from the real state of the things than the authors of the quoted book think. It is untamed globalisation that led to the unprecedented social and administrative coronacrisis. The demarcation of planetoids through the establishment of borders in the currently completely open information space [3: 160–161], instead of blind adherence to unleashed globalisation, may be a more reasonable way of sketching humanity’s future after the COVID-19 pandemic. Further unquestioning trust and reliance on miracles of globalisation will only make the crisis worse, since deepening globalisation cannot mend its already flagrant consequences. The “pandemic of homo sapiens,” i.e. uncontrolled growth of homo sapiens population, the phenomenon of overcrowding the ecosystem of planet Earth by human beings themselves, as well as by the very few domesticated and specialised animals and plants deployed in order to feed humanity when its size is equal to eight billions (with a further possible growth to some fifteen billions by 2100) [4], provides an ideal basis for the multiplication of emerging viruses and bacteria. Organising individuals, i.e. humans, animals and plants alike, most efficiently according to the principles of mass farming establishes biologically and culturally mixed subjects, thus forming a unique globally distributed monoculture. It is an unprecedented ecological and social situation that did not happen so far in evolution. In fact, the question arises, whether the present strategies of COVID-19-related social distancing of “equals” would work if applied to the “kingdom of domesticated animals and plants”? This question is pressing, since most of the viral pathogens of the last decades, including SARSCoV-2, are thought to emerge as zoonoses, in the situation of the closest contiguity of humans with wild and domesticated animals being bred in farms for feedinghomo sapiens. The perspective offered in the book will possibly help to think about the current coronacrisis in the context of biological and social evolution of homo sapiens species, not just focussing on today’s social and administrative challenges.1 In our book, we are eagerly aimed to analyse the positive experience of both European and Asian countries in combating SARS-CoV-2 that may be transmitted further. What put the People’s Republic of China, Singapore, Taiwan, Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Japan, India and some other Asian countries ahead of the rest of humanity in efficiency of combating SARS-CoV-2? What Russia as both a European and Asian country could propose to the world community in dealing with SARSCoV-2 and coronacrisis? Our authors share their vision. The current coronavirus gradually evolved into a set of almost independent social, administrative, media and political phenomena, quite unlike former viral pathogens that caused serious epidemics of the last decades, e.g. SARS-CoV or H5N1 “bird” flu. SARS-CoV-2 launched, but definitely not caused the global “coronacrisis”, i.e. administrative, social, mental, economic and financial disorder whose close and distant consequences will still last for an uncertain time. Global humanity cannot 1

From scientific correspondence with one of the book’s authors, Dr-Ing. Wolfgang Sassin.

Preface

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be sustainable. Had it not been for SARS-CoV-2, another reason may have caused the current global crisis that is, in fact, a direct result of “One World Project.”2 Dreams of building the truly global humanity that would share the same values, principles and attitudes, and would live in a sort of a Paradise here on Earth, turned out to transform the world into a nightmare, the space of global disarray. Different endeavours to use epidemics for achieving political tasks are not new. We witnessed how different political forces try to solve their own problems with the help of SARS-CoV, H5N1 “bird” and H1N1 “swine” influenzas [5]. However, such endeavours were not global. The current epidemic that was correctly named a pandemic caused tasks and problems that are known to scientists, clinicians and healthcare administrators, but the social and political measures associated with it are unprecedented. In this book, our authors ponder on possible reasons for such a disparity. From a biological, evolutionary point of view, we are now witnessing the process of “adjusting” the virus and the human immune system. The circulation of the virus in the population should inevitably lead to a decrease in the lethality of the virus, since a “very strong” or “deadly” virus leads to the death of its host and cannot spread further. Of course, it is possible that more lethal forms will appear due to SARS-CoV-2 genome mutation, but they will also be adjusted to human hosts for the same reason. At the same time, collective immunity is being gradually developed, and the more people become infected, the calmer the clinical course.3 However, achieving a balanced co-existence of SARS-CoV-2 and human beings is not what official world media and some politicians, that try to gain additional support in their populations, call for. They demand to “conquer” the virus. From epidemiological and administrative viewpoints, it is absurd. Strong trust of the wide circle of decision makers in the correctness of “beliefs” and “opinions” related to SARS-CoV-2, not facts or data, may cause atrocious consequences in the future. We already observed the “Black Revolution” in USA and partly UK as well as several-day-long plunging crude oil prices into negative values, due to the fact that someone’s beliefs became the basis of world politics. What is to be anticipated, if governments continue their struggle with SARS-CoV-2 by “lockdowns” and human rights trampling in 2022 and possibly forever, by curfews and martial law, by penalties and CCTV camera-based control, not by research, rationality, political conscience and common sense? Shall we wait for the total organisational chaos, civil uprisings, revolts, rebellions and finally ultimate impoverishment of the world population with several dozens of winning multi-billionaire physical and corporal entities? The coronacrisis is a systemic critical state not only in the healthcare sector. It influenced and changed all sides of our lives. In our book, we are aimed at discussing various facets of the crisis in their unity and interdependence. The multidimensional structure of the coronacrisis explains the structure of the main topics raised in the book. 2 3

From scientific correspondence with one of the book’s authors, Dr. Galyna Bozhok. Ibid.

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Epidemiological problems are closely related to social and administrative issues. Containing the virus does not only mean implementing innovative and effectual surveillance and medical techniques. It is impossible without proper comprehending the virus’s transmission (modelling adjusted to experimental data and relevant informational coverage), planning appropriate social policy, constructing flexible administrative strategies and realising possible ways of the future co-existence of the virus and its new host, homo sapiens. As the coronacrisis was exacerbating, it became evident that its role in the development of all societies would be enormous. Its consequences may span from restricting personal freedoms to revising constitutions, from transforming open and democratic communities to—as the worst prognosis—the worst Orwell’s nightmares and from the acceleration of digitisation processes in education, individuals’ identification and travelling to the situation of total “protecting” the population by state and corporate entities. All this shall be accompanied by ever-accelerating growth of homo sapiens population, at least to fifteen billions by 2100 and, therefore, erasing the edge between “society” and “nature,” whom the modern green political parties strive to “protect”. Due to occupying territories that some time ago were deemed natural reservoirs, humanity will be coming to a closer and closer contact with the animal world—intensified in terms of quantity and quality—which means, to the world of microorganisms, protozoa, bacteria, fungi and viruses. SARS-CoV-2 may be only the beginning of a long chain of epidemiological disastrous events that human beings will face during the nearest decades due to the unprecedented growth of the world population. Will we learn anything from the lessons and opportunities that have been given us so far, including the exceptional lesson of COVID-19? Will we master flexibility in introducing anti-recessional social policy and managerial steps? In 2020-2021, a lot of awkward administrative measures caused the blossoming of the wildest conspiracy theories in the population of various countries, from US and Europe to

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Russia and India. However, people are hardly to blame in the situation of the evident disagreement between the threat and the response to it. People keep asking questions and governments have to answer them sooner or later—sooner better than later. Our gallop poll research performed in different countries showed that several types of questions are the most persistent. • Why were the same measures introduced in 2020 around the globe without taking into account the specificity of different cultures, nationals, mentality and even epidemiological situation? Why did yarns about the “solidarity of humanity” rather than scientific discoveries become a dominant factor in introducing the pandemic-related social policies? Can the “solidarity” between, say, Wisconsin in US and West Bengal in India save people in both places from SARS-CoV-2 in the most efficient way? • Why did the pandemic put the cart before the horse in governmental decision making algorithms? Why did top state officials commence to treat bloggers, media persons, TV and film celebrities, large businesses’ owners, bankers and similar amateurs and dilettanti in epidemiology as the most prominent experts in the novel viral threat and its containment, neglecting scientists and medical experts? • Why were there almost no public discussions and open debates of differently minded scientists available in media? Why were the administrative, media and financial support given only to those scientific teams who wholeheartedly allied with the initial governmental panic and doomsday mood? • Why are some of the containment measures that are obviously ineffective be in force? It was found already in summer 2020 that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be transmitted through skin, even damaged with scratches or cuts. Then why in January 2021, people are still required to wear gloves as individual protective units? • Why do full lockdowns that proved to be ineffective continue to be implemented in many countries in 2021 as the only measures that will stop the virus? Theoretically, quarantine measures can be effective, but in real life, there is a question: will it be economically justified? With negligible mortality be a reason to paralyse the economies of entire regions and then have an increase in criminal or social mortality in much greater amounts? • The religious part of humanity, i.e. the absolute majority is still unaware why governments were rigid and inexorable in prohibiting religious services around the world in spring 2020 if it was already known that SARS-CoV-2 is not measles in its transmission potential. Christian Easter, Muslim Ramadan and many other celebrations were, therefore, coercively neglected by the population and sacred places were forced to close by authorities. Why did nobody publicly deal with conspiracy theories about the End of the World that spread after such decisions? • Why is there no consensus on the strategies of treatment, vaccination and further prevention even in very close political allies? For example, in European Union, the governments only start to think about possible common epidemiological and medical procedures only after a year since the emergence of the pathogen. Why was no pan-European anti-COVID administrative structure created at the very

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beginning of the pandemic in Europe when it was so utterly needed, instead of constant hypocritical and even deleterious talks about the European solidarity to oppose threats like Russia, China and Turkey? • Why do we witness the omnipresent uncontrolled boom of digitalisation strategies, from cryptocurrencies to education, from everyday to scientific communication and from people identification to the control of their relocation? Certainly, these processes were taking place even before the pandemic. However, with the coronacrisis, they rapidly achieved their heyday. • Why did we face a situation of mass penalties to those who could support themselves and sharing money with those who could not because of the governmental prohibitions to work? Is that a correct idea of the state protecting its citizens? • Why was the world so fantastically unprepared for the Black Swan coronavirus? Even simple necessities such as individual protective units were missing at the beginning of the crisis almost anywhere, not speaking about necessary medications. Obviously, too many “whys” and too few clear explanations. Our authors deal with these and other problems, proposing the results of their research. Some questions, though, cannot be answered in a consistent way even today, at the autumn of 2021. From the structure of the book, one may see that the book offers an interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary approach. We strongly believe that only a combination of appropriate measures in medicine, healthcare administration and public policy can lead to an effective adaptation of humanity to the novel global infection and thus effective SARS-CoV-2 containing. In old days, possibly in the late Middle Ages and Renaissance, influenza viruses A and B were also novel viral pathogens that threatened to exterminate the humanity weakened by the Black Death pandemic of the fourteenth century [6]. It did not happen, however. Now, with all the knowledge, epidemiological experience, medical and technical achievements, humanity cannot but overcome the crisis.

Kharkov, Ukraine Moscow, Russia

Respectfully yours, Editors Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach Konstantin S. Sharov

References 1.

2. 3. 4.

Kauermann G (2021) Keine Übersterblichkeit. “Dann wäre klar gewesen, was wirklich in Deutschland geschieht”. Die WELT 30.1.2021 https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plu s225323039/Uebersterblichkeit-Dann-waere-klar-gewesen-was-wirklich-hier-geschieht.html Liu J, Xia S (2020) Computational epidemiology. Cham, Springer Sassin W, Donskikh O, Gnes A, Komissarov S, Liu D (2018) Evolutionary environments: homo sapiens—an endangered specises? Innsbruck, Studia Sassin W (2019) Er-Schöpfung der Schöpfung, oder Eine neue Kulturstufe in der Entwicklung des homo. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020510203. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500. 12656/thebeacon.2.020510203

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6.

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VanMeter KC, Bhakdi S, Gerilovych AP (2020) Covid-19 outbreak role in the development of societies: questions and inconsistencies. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 3(1):011140018. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.3.011140018 Hays JN (2005) Epidemics and pandemics: their impacts on human history. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO

Contents

Part I 1

2

3

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Using Experience in Previous Epidemics for Effective Containing SARS-CoV-2: Spanish Influenza 1918 and Beyond . . . . Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach, Galyna A. Bozhok, and Konstantin S. Sharov Coronavirus Infections of Animals and Humans: Biological and Epidemiological Properties of Causative Agents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fr priest Anton P. Gerilovych, Borys T. Stegniy, Oleksandr M. Kornieikov, Denys V. Muzyka, Iryna O. Gerilovych, Vitaliy I. Bolotin, Larysa V. Kovalenko, Vasiliy L. Arefiev, Oksana B. Zlenko, and Olena V. Kolchyk SARS-CoV-2 Zoonotic Potential: Current Knowledge and Hypotheses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fr priest Anton P. Gerilovych, Borys T. Stegniy, Larysa V. Kovalenko, Yurii K. Dunaiev, Natalia S. Rodyna, Oksana V. Kinash, Vasiliy L. Arefiev, Iryna O. Gerilovych, Tatyana B. Didyk, Victoria S. Boiko, and Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach SARS-CoV-2 in Acute Respiratory Infection Situation in Russia in Spring–Summer 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Konstantin S. Sharov

Part II 5

Epidemiological Properties of Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 3

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Modelling Epidemiological Behaviour of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Communities

What Social Policy Is Better: Lockdowns or Borders Closings During SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Olga V. Valba, Vladik A. Avetisov, Alexander S. Gorsky, and Sergei K. Nechaev

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Contents

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How Effective Were and Are Lockdowns? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Konstantin S. Sharov and Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach

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Comparison of Containing SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and Far East in March–May 2020: Modelling and Experimental Data . . . . . . 119 Konstantin S. Sharov and Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach

Part III In Search for Alternative Therapy of COVID-19 Disease and Effective Management of Coronacrisis 8

Prospects of Complementary Medicine in Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19: Phytotherapy as a Traditional Chinese Medicine and Ayurveda Technique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Alexey M. Vasilenko

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Fight Against and Live Along: Chinese Experience to Exist with COVID-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Depei Liu and Sergey A. Komissarov

Part IV Social Problems Posed by SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic 10 Coronacrisis and the End of World Globalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Wolfgang Sassin 11 New Type of Social Structure, Stratification and Relations in Post-COVID Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Oleg A. Donskikh 12 Assisting Minors in Russia and Ukraine to Deal with the COVID-19 Situation: Social, Mental and Epidemiological Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach 13 Radical Changes of Information Society During SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Structural Transformations of the Security Sphere: Experience of Republic of Belarus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 Svetlana N. Sokolova and Anastasia A. Sokolova Part V

Necessity in Unprecedented Administrative Decisions

14 Online Learning: The Only Future Scenario of Global Education in Post-COVID Era? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Oleg A. Donskikh 15 Coronacrisis Reconstruction Programmes: Saving the “Global Economy”? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 Wolfgang Sassin

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16 Control of Globalisation, Transport Routes, Supply Chains and Migration in the Pandemic Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 Wolfgang Sassin 17 Strategies of Consistent Planning Healthcare Management During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Russian and European Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 Konstantin S. Sharov 18 Managing Economic, Cultural and Mental Crises Caused by COVID-19 Pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279 Nataliia G. Duna Part VI

Informational Coverage of Pandemic

19 Ideological Media Coverage of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . 293 Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach, Galyna A. Bozhok, and Konstantin S. Sharov 20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311 Vladimir M. Moskovkin, Tatyana V. Saprykina, and Igor V. Boichuk Epilogue: Seeing End of Pandemic or Entering New Era? . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379

Editors and Contributors

About the Editors Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach, Ph.D., Dr. habil Doctor of Theological Science, Chief Scientist, Head of Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Professor, Dean of Temple of St. Transfiguration in Kharkov, Dean of St. Anthony the Great’s Temple (House Temple of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University), Ukrainian Orthodox Church Correspondence e-mail: [email protected] Correspondence address: 23 Pereyaslavskaya st., Kharkov 61016, Ukraine Konstantin S. Sharov, Ph.D. Doctor of Theological Science, Senior Scientist, Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences Correspondence e-mail: [email protected] Correspondence address: 26 Vavilov st, Moscow, 119334 Russia

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Editors and Contributors

Contributors Vasiliy L. Arefiev Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Vladik A. Avetisov Federal Research Centre of Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Igor V. Boichuk Institute of Cross-Cultural Communications and International Relations, Department of Foreign Languages and Professional Communication, Belgorod State National Research University, Belgorod, Russia

Editors and Contributors

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Victoria S. Boiko Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Vitaliy I. Bolotin Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Galyna A. Bozhok Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kharkov, Ukraine

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Editors and Contributors

Tatyana B. Didyk Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Oleg A. Donskikh Head of Department of Philosophy and Humanities, Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Novosibirsk, Russia Department of Philosophy, Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk, Russia

Nataliia G. Duna Department of International Economics and World Economy, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkov, Ukraine

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Yurii K. Dunaiev Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Fr priest Anton P. Gerilovych Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Iryna O. Gerilovych Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

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Editors and Contributors

Alexander S. Gorsky Institute of Information Transmission Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow, Russia

Oksana V. Kinash Department for Histology, Cytology and Embryology, Ukrainian Medical and Dental Academy, Poltava, Ukraine

Olena V. Kolchyk Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

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Sergey A. Komissarov Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography of the Siberian Brach of Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, Russia Chair of Oriental Studies of the Humanitarian Institute of Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia Confucius Institute of Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia

Oleksandr M. Kornieikov Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Larysa V. Kovalenko Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

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Editors and Contributors

Depei Liu Shenyang Sport University, Shenyang, China

Vladimir M. Moskovkin Centre of Publication Activity Development, Institute of Economics and Management, World Economy Department, Belgorod State National Research University, Belgorod, Russia

Denys V. Muzyka Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Editors and Contributors

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Sergei K. Nechaev Interdisciplinary Scientific Centre Poncelet, CNRS IRL, Moscow, Russia Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Natalia S. Rodyna Kyiv Oblast Laboratory Centre of Ministry of Health of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

Tatyana V. Saprykina Institute of Economics and Management, Department of Innovative Economics and Finance, Belgorod, Russia

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Editors and Contributors

Wolfgang Sassin Former Fellow at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and Lecturer at Technical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Anastasia A. Sokolova University of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Emergencies of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus

Svetlana N. Sokolova University of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Emergencies of Belarus, Minsk, Belarus

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Borys T. Stegniy Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Olga V. Valba Department of Applied Mathematics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Federal Research Centre of Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Alexey M. Vasilenko Moscow, Russia

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Editors and Contributors

Oksana B. Zlenko Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, Kharkov, Ukraine

Part I

Epidemiological Properties of Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2

Chapter 1

Using Experience in Previous Epidemics for Effective Containing SARS-CoV-2: Spanish Influenza 1918 and Beyond Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach, Galyna A. Bozhok, and Konstantin S. Sharov Abstract Despite SARS-CoV-2 being a closest genetic relation of SARS-CoV that caused SARS 2002–2004 pandemic, it caused quite different epidemic situation than SARS-CoV. In this Chapter, we study the reasons for it. We propose several possible explanations of its epidemic disparity with SARS-CoV. 1. SARS-CoV incubation period is at least two times less than that of SARS-CoV-2, so potentially the latter virus may infect twice as more people before any symptoms of a carrier are clear. 2. In case of SARS pandemic of 2002–2004, public healthcare measures such as rapid locating and isolating the disease sources, were a lot more successful than now. 3. During eighteen years that passed since the SARS pandemic, the humanity dramatically changed: (1) almost two additional billion people appeared on Earth since 2002 (7.8 bln vs 6.1 bln); (2) the mobility of humanity prodigiously increased; and (3) the electronic network connections reached an unseen level, and that led to the appearance of permanent global tourism phenomenon based on the huge mobility and psychological necessity in the network recognisability and fame (network rankings, “views,” “likes,” dangerous videos uploads, the numbers of “followers” and “friends”, etc.). Artificial boundaries against the world uncontrolled globalisation must be established and kept, be they physical, mental, digital, national, religious or

F. E. I. Legach Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Dean of Temple of St Transfiguration in Kharkov, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 23 Pereyaslavskaya St., Kharkiv 61016, Ukraine G. A. Bozhok Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 23 Pereyaslavskaya St., Kharkiv 61016, Ukraine K. S. Sharov (B) Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 26 Vavilov St., Moscow 119334, Russia © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_1

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any other. The 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic is very similar to the SARS-CoV2 pandemic in its geographical spread, contagiousness and demographical impact. We suggest a number of public policy measures of SARS-CoV-2 more effectual containment based on the 1918 Influenza medical and social history.

Introduction Our aim is to provide a concise comparative ecological and epidemiological analysis of COVID-19 and most disastrous pandemics of the past. A comparative analysis explicitly and evidently shows that the humanity faced comparable and even more dangerous infections many times. Table 1.1 with an incomplete list of the epidemics/pandemics summarises the information. As we see in Table 1.1, since the fourteenth century, humanity survived the times of truly catastrophic pandemics that are incomparable with the current SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in many aspects.

Analysis Incomparable Fatality Rate Exceptional COVID-19 death toll rates determined for Italy, Spain and New York state (as of the beginning of April 2020), should not draw our attention away from the fact that plague (both bubonic and pneumonic), not COVID-19, remains a pandemic that eradicated the largest number of human beings from the planet thus far. During the Black Death of the 14th century, European civilisation might vanish from the Earth completely: little villages got empty, and such large cities as London counted one human of ten after the end of the pandemic. The fatality rate of pneumonic plague (50–70%) may seem 1-1.2 orders higher than the world average mortality rate of COVID-19 (5%) even at the first glance. Moreover, the Far East plague outbreak of 1910–1911 is unique in its fatality rate being around 100 per cent. That means no infected person survived during that pandemic, and no other epidemic in the world ever had such lethality. Spanish influenza H1N1 was so disastrous, even fatal, for the humanity already devastated by the World War I atrocities, that some regions of the Earth counted losses of one third of their total population [1]. However, an additional remark is required. In case of plague, we operate with historical statistics of total fatality rate, which considers the whole population, whereas the World Health Organisation (WHO) regularly reported case mortality rate for COVID-19. The inequality DRcase mortality > DRfatality > DRtotal fatality (DR— death rate) should be always remembered. The WHO online metric did not reflect

Europe

Europe

India, China, Southeast Asia, Far East, North America, Europe

Black death

Plague during and after Thirty Years’ War

Cholera

“Yellow Jack” USA (Yellow fever) (Southern states), Bermuda

Geography

Infection

Yellow fever virus

Vibrio cholerae (bacteria)

Plague bacillus (bacteria)

Plague bacillus (bacteria)

Causative agent

Insect bites only

Fecal-oral (through food and water)

Insect bites, droplets, contact with fluids and tissues

Insect bites, droplets, contact with fluids and tissues

Transmission

1 mosquito bite

0.6 or 10 mln vibrios

0.8 or 1 flee bite

0.8 or 1 flee bite

Calculated contagiousnessa

–

–

6–7

6–7

Basic reproductive number rb0

Mid-19th century

19th century

Mid-17th century

Mid-14th century

Years

200,000

12,000,000

3,000,000

150,000,000

Average estimated death toll, up to

Table 1.1 Some statistical information on great pandemics/epidemics of the past in comparison with COVID-19 pandemic

Up to 72.5%*

Up to 20%**

Up to 50%***

Up to 70%***

Case fatality rate

[2]

[26]

(continued)

[27, 28]

[23–26]

Sources

1 Using Experience in Previous Epidemics for Effective … 5

H1N1 flu virus

H5N1 flu virus

Mainly Asian countries

Worldwide

H5N1 avian flu

H1N1 swine flu

H1N1 flu virus

SARS-CoV

SARS atypical Worldwide pneumonia

Worldwide

Spanish influenza

Causative agent

Plague bacillus (bacteria)

Geography

Far east plague Russia, pandemic Chinese Empire, Korea

Infection

Table 1.1 (continued)

Droplets, direct contact, surface touches

Birds to human only

Droplets, direct contact, surface touches

Droplets, direct contact, surface touches

Insect bites, rats bites, droplets, contact with fluids and tissues

Transmission

0.6

1 direct contact with an infected bird

0.4

0.6

0.2 or 1 flee/rat bite, 1 touch of dead rats

Calculated contagiousnessa

2009–2010

2004–2008

−

4–6

2002–2004

1918–1920, after WWI

1910–1911

Years

2.5–5

4–6

7–11

Basic reproductive number rb0

Up to 52%* Up to 1.1%*

285,0001

Up to 10%*

Up to 25%**

100%**

Case fatality rate

300

800

100,000,000

80,000

Average estimated death toll, up to

(continued)

[35, 46–48]

[34, 38–40, 45]

[8]

[30, 32, 33, 44]

[29–31]

Sources

6 F. E. I. Legach et al.

Western Africa

Malaysia

Worldwide

Ebola haemorrhagic fever

Nipah virus infection

COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2

Nipah virus

Ebola virus

Causative agent

Droplets, direct contact, surface touches

Direct human to human contact, bat to human contacts, bat bites

Bodily fluids and tissues only

Transmission

0.4

0.2

0.75

Calculated contagiousnessa

2.5–5

1

1.5–2.5

Basic reproductive number rb0

2019–2020

1999

2013–2014

Years

182,0002,~

500

13,500

Average estimated death toll, up to

Up to 5%*

Up to 78%**

Up to 90%*

Case fatality rate

[43], Multiple sources

[37]

[36]

Sources

*case mortality rate (in regard to reported cases) **fatality rate (in regard to all infected or reasonably deemed to be infected) ***total local fatality rate (in regard to all local population) a 1 (100 per cent) is the largest reference contagiousness of chicken pox (varicella) b using r is highly dubious for SARS, COVID-19 and all the diseases with additional to direct contact/droplet transmission paths. The references are measles 0 (~ 20–25) and chicken pox (~ 30) 1 average estimates by Centres for Disease Protection and Control. The value of estimated death toll is between 150,000 and 575,000 2 as of 2 April 2020 ~ It is difficult to judge about the average COVID-19 lethality during all its waves, since by the end of April 2020 many countries (e.g. Belgium, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom) switched to a new mode of death rate calculation. All suspicious cases that were not proven to be COVID-19 by RT-PCR or RT-LAMP testing, but that exhibited more or less comparable symptoms (e.g. pneumonia-like symptoms), were ascribed to SARS-CoV-2. That definitely blurred the whole picture

Geography

Infection

Table 1.1 (continued)

1 Using Experience in Previous Epidemics for Effective … 7

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F. E. I. Legach et al.

the real number of the infected people correctly. A simple projection of H1N1 swine flu 2009 epidemiologic statistical discrepancy situation allows us to suggest that COVID-19 fatality rate in regard to all infected persons may give at least ten-fold lower figures than the enormous reported case mortality rates for some countries and regions. E.g., for Italy it may end up with 1–1.2 per cent fatality. Besides, that makes incomparability of fatality rates for plague and COVID-19 even more salient. Turning to the twenty-first century epidemics with the figures more appropriate for the direct comparison with COVID-19 mortality rate, we have to pay attention to Ebola haemorrhagic fever and H5N1 avian flu with extremely high fatality rates. Of twelve pandemics covered in Table 1.1, only H1N1 “swine flu” has lower mortality rate than COVID-19. It makes SARS-CoV-2 a medium pathogenic virus (whereas H5N1 is a high pathogenic virus).

Incomparable Contagiousness Contagiousness measured as r0 (zero-patient potential) provided by almost all health organisations including the Health Department of Moscow Government, is a very indistinct and ambiguous indicator for any diseases with additional transmission paths to the direct contact/droplet route. For H5N1 and Yellow fever, that metric loses its sense at all [2]. Such diseases as SARS, COVID-19, H1N1 (both Spanish influenza and swine flu) include also the surface transmission (through touches). But surfaces move, change, remain inconstant, and r0 value distribution becomes comparable with the r0 value itself (2.5-5 range for SARS and COVID-19 is equal to the lower limit 2.5). Statistically, it means that the numbers provided by health organisations on SARS-CoV-2 contagiousness are mainly unreliable [3]. Another approach to contagiousness measurement is to use contagiousness coefficient. Some authors indicate that the contagiousness coefficient for COVID-19 may be estimated as 0.3–0.4 (nearly 3 or 4 of 10 persons directly contacting an infected individual of surfaces, will be infected by SARS-CoV-2 virus). That enables us to classify COVID-19 as a medium contagious disease. Spanish flu and cholera are at least 1.5 times more contagious, while pneumonic plague and measles 2 times more and chicken pox (the most contagious droplet-transmitted disease known thus far) 3 to 6 times more. Surface (touch) transmission route is reported to be the most important way of SARS-CoV-2 spread [4]. Surface transmission of SARS-CoV2 is important, therefore, unavoidable contacts in supermarkets, public transport etc. are equally important with the droplet transmission route. Reducing predominantly “social contacts” by self-isolation public policy measures is, therefore, rather ineffective (from the private scientific correspondence with Dr-Ing Wolfgang Sassin). Of all pandemics of the recent past, highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu, Nipah and Ebola remain extremely dangerous in epidemiological aspect. Health organisations in China, India and Southeast Asia managed to control the natural reservoirs of the first two so far, while Russia contributed much to the development of the most effective

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anti-Ebola vaccine. A comprehensive systems approach would have combined international capacities to develop a vaccine and to produce in sufficient quantities, instead of focussing on “financial cooperation” in order to dampen the economic consequences of uncoordinated lockdowns. The story of political and economic reactions to COVID-19 just demonstrates how utopian the idea of “organised humanity” is. The necessity to “tame the information space,” that emerged during the past twenty years, is reflected in Dr Sassin’s works [5, 6]. Humanity is safe thus far from fatal consequences of avian flu, MERS, Nipah and Ebola epidemics/pandemics mainly because of their unusual transmission ways, i.e. contacts with birds, bats or infected human/animal body liquid/tissues.

Direct Genetic and Epidemiologic Relations Mass media and political information panic in January-March 2020, exploiting the idea of the virus novelty, has hardly any grounds to be acquitted and recognised as normal. Genome analyses of SARS-CoV-2 revealed its nearly 80 per cent genetic identity with SARS-CoV that caused 2002–2004 atypical pneumonia pandemic [7]. In addition to similarities in viruses structure, origin, spread paths, even transmissibility (similar r0 and contagiousness coefficient), both viruses are likely to bind to the same human cell receptors [7]. Taking this into account, what can be the most probable reasons of different epidemiological situation of SARS-related disease and COVID-19? We may advance several possible explanations. 1.

2.

3.

SARS-CoV incubation period is at least two times less than that of SARS-CoV2, so potentially the latter virus may infect twice as more people before any symptoms of a carrier are clear. We believe it is this ability of a SARS-CoV-2 carrier to be contagious during early incubation period that is presumably a more important factor for COVID-19’s larger infection rate rather than a “chain reaction” consideration. SARS asymptomatic and mild symptomatic patients are not proven to be contagious [8]. Conversely, the main epidemiologic problem with SARS-CoV-2 is that latent patients are already contagious during initial stage of the disease (before symptomatic onset) [9]. In case of SARS pandemic of 2002–2004, public healthcare measures such as rapid locating and isolating the disease sources, were a lot more successful than now. Wuhan is a vastly populated city whose healthcare system was initially paralysed by a sudden growth of COVID-19 serious symptomatic patients with atypical pneumonia. In its turn, the positive-relation loop caused additional growth of the number of COVID-19-infected people [10]. However, the most feasible explanation seems to be purely social, not ecological or biological. During eighteen years that passed since the SARS pandemic, the humanity dramatically changed:

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(1) (2) (3)

almost two additional billion people appeared on Earth since 2020 (7.8 bln vs 6.1 bln), the mobility of humanity prodigiously increased, and the electronic network connections reached an unseen level, and that led to the appearance of permanent global tourism phenomenon based on the huge mobility and psychological necessity in the network recognisability and fame (network rankings, “views,” “likes,” dangerous videos uploads, the numbers of “followers” and “friends”, etc.).

Humanity became the truly global network society without borders. That was not the case for the times of SARS-CoV 2002 − 2004. Rephrasing those politicians, financiers and media sources that contributed most to the spread of COVID-19 “infodemic,” not the disease should be regarded as “unseen thus far,” but the network unity of human beings has to be treated as unprecedented. This “networked humanity” state may shed some light on the uneven distribution of COVID-19 main locations. All considerations mentioned above lead us to the appropriateness of comparing COVID-19 with Spanish influenza of 1918–1920 in addition to its comparison with SARS. While SARS-CoV remains the closest genetic relative of SARS-CoV-2, H1N1 virus exhibited similar spread and transmission patterns one hundred years ago, after the end of World War I. It is hardly a mere coincidence. Spanish flu whose death toll is still unknown and can be only roughly estimated (50,000,000 to 150,000,000 with nearly 400,000,000– 500,000,000 infected), was a new challenge to humanity. It was the first pandemic on the global scale in the history of humanity. Black Death, cholera, Yellow fever, etc., all of them were local epidemics due to impregnable geographic and political borders that delineated the division of human society in old days. World War I removed such boundaries. The war required unprecedented relocation and mobility of people across the world. Australian and New Zealand troops were fighting on European frontlines; Papua nationals were relocated to German colonies in China; the Indians were giving their lives in Africa; African soldiers moved to US and Europe—all that makes the situation of 1918 very similar to the modern day. We should not be surprised that the epidemiological and ecological situation of COVID-19 looks more like Spanish flu than SARS that was contained at the level of a “local” epidemic. A dangerous observation is that, one hundred years ago, Spanish influenza situation was extraordinary. The current situation of the global networked humanity open to any serious epidemic, is becoming a common thing and ecological status quo.

Uneven Geographical and National Distribution of COVID-19 Even assuming that the WHO metric of “Confirmed cases” may be misleading and may not reflect the SARS-CoV-2 spread velocity in different countries, but mainly the rate of setting up new RT-PCR test systems, the initial death toll rates difference during the first wave was striking, from 0.3% in Germany to 10–12% in

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Italy, Spain and New York City. Some fraction of the difference in question may be allegedly accounted for by different death toll calculation procedures in the health systems of different countries [11, 12]. The remainder, however, is still very big to disregard. Returning to social factors, supplementing biological ones, we may endeavour to explain great unevenness in COVID-19 geographical and national distribution. We advance a hypothesis that the two major factors that may have boosted COVID-19 spread in the certain areas of the Earth, are global tourism and migration. Italy, Spain and New York are the most notable places for sightseeing. Global human mobility and turnover in these places are now huge and incomparable with 2002 when the SARS-CoV virus emerged. Additionally, migrant and refugee problems may also contribute to the possible social explanation. Italy and Spain (especially the former) are the funnels for migrants from the Near East, Middle East and Mediterranean to Europe. Through these funnels, migrants are moving forward to Germany and France. The “German” route includes Austria as refugees’. This may well explain the COVID-19 statistics for Germany, Austria and neighbouring Hungary where the number of reported coronavirus cases is twenty times less than in Austria (as of 1 April 2020).

Prospects Whatever quarantine or “self-isolation” public measures might be in different countries, they did not contain the virus transmitted by droplets from human to human—it is theoretically and practically impossible. The virus was not isolated at the very beginning, as SARS-CoV was in 2004. Therefore, the healthcare system of any country should be quickly reorganised in such a way to possess additional capacity to accommodate severe patients. We mean hospitalisation of patients with severe symptoms, not the total hospitalisation that is obviously beyond healthcare system capacity of any country. Many politicians paralysed with terror of necessity to have 0.05 × WHO’s “Confirmed cases” [13] started to think about restructuring national healthcare systems to fulfil this need. Of course, additional hospital beds with ventilators should be reserved for an emergency case, but obviously not the number to which these politicians are headed, being seized with fear.

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Mass media that made all the efforts to spread panic throughout the general public, as well as many politicians tending to enclose and fence districts, cities, regions or even the whole countries, generally did not understand the real healthcare-motivated reasons for building barriers and blocking the roads that were described above [14– 19]. They believed or seemed to believe—at least they continue to repeat in their public performances—that “we need to break the chain of virus transmission.” Many Russian federal territories were closing for an uncertain time interval in March 2020. That self-delusion cost much. Disassembling the whole countries to pieces required their future reconstruction that would cost billions of currency units. Another important question is concerned with the time appropriate enough to lift the quarantine bars and other blocks. If the politicians wait till the daily death toll decreases to “natural” rates, it is one thing. But if they wait till “no more persons get infected on a daily basis,” we will probably have to wait no less than several years. In the end, as H1N1 experience evidently proves (be it atrocious Spanish influenza or moderate swine flu), only forming population-based (also called herd, group or block) immunity will transform SARS-CoV-2 virus from a threat to humanity to a future part of human genome. Typically, no less than two years since the first case report, are necessary for creating population block immunity when nearly two thirds of the population have become carriers of a virus, whether in the presence of medical vaccines or in their absence. In SARS-CoV-2 case, it will not be any different. A positive observation cannot be ignored, after all. COVID-19 is in no way a new epidemiologic threat that humanity supposedly never faced. SARS-CoV-2 is by no means a “terrible” virus that “kills everything breathing in an instant.” This consideration almost puts an end to speculations about its possible origin as biological weapon. Some notable microbiologists, such as Sucharit Bhakdi, Wolfgang Wodart, Joel Kettner, John Ioannidis, Yoram Lass, Pietro Vernazza, Frank Montgomery, Hendrik Streeck, David Katz, Michael Osterholm, Peter Goetzsche and several others argued that fuss and feathers around COVID-19 were more about scaremongering, political and financial exploiting a spook [20–22]. Anyway, SARS-CoV-2 can be hardly compared to biological weapon described by Stephen King in his The Stand novel series. What would we do if the current pandemic virus, along with its human-to-human direct transmission, had fatality rate of Ebola (nearly nine of ten patients are dead), fastness of Nipah (1-3 days between the first symptoms and death), contagiousness of chicken pox (nearly 30 humans around a carrier within 10-metre range are getting infected with almost 100 per cent probability), and almost zero chance of asymptomatic course of disease? We may pay very high price for our “proud” being parts of one global humanity, one organism, in terms of ecology [49]. Without physical and mental borders, without clearly seeing what makes us different and not identical to each other, without paying heed to dangers of the real globalisation, a next virus—definitely not SARS-CoV2—can completely reformulate what humanity is now and will be in the nearest future.

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With the example of atypical pneumonia COVID-19, real networked globalisation demonstrates us one simple truth. If humanity wants to survive with several additional billion people expected by 2050, it must cease to be global. Despite all ideological calls to altruist brotherhood of everybody with everybody in the contemporary world—it is difficult not to recall Schiller and Beethoven’s verse from An die Freude poem and Symphony 9, Seid umschlungen, Millionen! Diesen Kuß der ganzen Welt!—none of us should forget that overcrowded, constantly moving population of homo sapiens may fall victim to a more or less dangerous virus that will break out from its natural reservoir in any place of the world at any time. In the modern era, mountains and oceans will not protect us. Yesterday Wuhan, today New York, Milan and London. Artificial boundaries must be established and kept, be they physical, mental, digital, national, religious or any other. If even such relatively low hazardous virus as SARS-CoV-2 is now shaking the whole world, threatening the sustainability of almost every society and social system, then the time is definitely come to reconsider future routes of humanity development. Otherwise, any virus may reconsider ourselves.

Conclusions 1.

2. 3.

4. 5.

COVID-19 is in no way a new epidemiologic threat that humanity supposedly never faced. Many times humanity dealt with even more dangerous epidemics/pandemics, while SARS-CoV-2 structure, ecological and epidemiological properties are mainly understandable (as of 7 April 2020); The Spanish flu of 1918–1920 and SARS 2002–2004 negative and positive experiences should be taken into account; Comprehensive population testing should be made in several test social groups, to reveal the real profile of SARS-CoV-2 spread in population. Together with the experience which the humanity learned from the epidemics of the past, that measure will give an opportunity to elaborate a more effective containment measures on national and international scale; In the future, national healthcare organisations must take the responsibility to inform political circles about real epidemiological situation; Political initiatives are urgent, almost overdue, to make necessary steps towards balanced restructuring healthcare national systems, along with the prevention of disrupting worldwide supply chains and total blockade of the countries, that may undermine the world economy and social order in a two- to three-month term of continuous lockdowns.

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42. El Sayed SM, Abdelrahman AA, Ozbak HA et al (2016) Updates in diagnosis and management of Ebola hemorrhagic fever. J Res Med Sci 21:84. https://doi.org/10.4103/1735-1995.192500 43. Pirouz B, Haghshenas Sina S, Haghshenas Sami S et al. (2020) Investigating a serious challenge in the sustainable development process: analysis of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (new type of coronavirus) through a binary classification using artificial intelligence and regression analysis. Sustainability 12(6):2427. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062427 44. Short KR, Kedzierska K, Van de Sandt CE (2018) Back to the future: lessons learned from the 1918 influenza pandemic. Front Cell Infect Microbiol 8(343):PMCID: PMC6187080. https:// doi.org/10.3389/fcimb.2018.00343 45. Tundup S, Kandasamy M, Prez JT et al. (2017) Endothelial cell tropism is a determinant of H5N1 pathogenesis in mammalian species. PLoS Pathog 13(3):e1006270. https://doi.org/10. 1371/journal.ppat.1006270 46. Dawood F, Iuliano AD, Reed C et al. (2012, June 26) Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4 47. Ravina AD, Mohan H, Prasad M et al. (2020) Detection methods for influenza A H1N1 virus with special reference to biosensors: a review. Biosci Rep 40(2):BSR20193852. http://doi.org/ 10.1042/BSR20193852 48. Roose R (2011, August 8) Study puts global 2009 H1N1 infection rate at 11% to 21%, center for infectious disease research and policy communique. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-per spective/2011/08/study-puts-global-2009-h1n1-infection-rate-11-21 49. Nicholson A, Shah CM, Ogawa VA ed. (2019) Exploring lessons learned from a century of outbreaks: readiness for 2030, proceedings of a workshop. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2019

Chapter 2

Coronavirus Infections of Animals and Humans: Biological and Epidemiological Properties of Causative Agents Fr priest Anton P. Gerilovych, Borys T. Stegniy, Oleksandr M. Kornieikov, Denys V. Muzyka, Iryna O. Gerilovych, Vitaliy I. Bolotin, Larysa V. Kovalenko, Vasiliy L. Arefiev, Oksana B. Zlenko, and Olena V. Kolchyk Abstract As an attempt of unprejudiced and ideology-free use of coronavirusrelated information in the SARS-CoV-2 matter, we initiated pilot studies to clone in silico genes of two viral proteins S (spike) and N (nucleocapsid) into expressing plasmid vectors for subsequent transformation of bacterial and yeast cells to obtain recombinant antigens. In this Chapter, we describe these studies. GeneBank was used F. A. P. Gerilovych (B) · B. T. Stegniy · O. M. Kornieikov · D. V. Muzyka · I. O. Gerilovych · V. I. Bolotin · L. V. Kovalenko · V. L. Arefiev · O. B. Zlenko · O. V. Kolchyk Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, 83 Pushkinskaya St, Kharkov 61023, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] B. T. Stegniy e-mail: [email protected] O. M. Kornieikov e-mail: [email protected] D. V. Muzyka e-mail: [email protected] I. O. Gerilovych e-mail: [email protected] V. I. Bolotin e-mail: [email protected] L. V. Kovalenko e-mail: [email protected] V. L. Arefiev e-mail: [email protected] O. B. Zlenko e-mail: [email protected] O. V. Kolchyk e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_2

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to find complete sequences of genes encoding the target proteins of the Wuhan-19 strain. Primer systems have been developed for the development and cloning of target fragments of the viral genome, as well as internal primers for screening recombinant clones. In the future, on the basis of these data, candidate drugs for immunisation against SARS-CoV-2 will be constructed and tested on laboratory animals. The main task of the scientific approach, i.e. approach based on regarding the novel coronavirus pathogen in an unbiased and ideology-free way, may be reached starting with the comparison of all information on other animal and human coronaviruses that scientific community, veterinaries and clinicians possess so far, with the new data on SARS-CoV-2 that are received constantly since the beginning of 2020. Media ideology of SARS-CoV-2-related fear causes much threat to impartial and neutral studies and should be avoided in medical practice and scientific research.

Introduction Coronaviral infections represent the group of infectious diseases caused by RNAcontaining viruses of the order Nidovirales, family Coronaviridae, which affect many species of birds and mammals. A number of coronaviruses are pathogenic to humans. The first mention of coronaviral infections in the literature dates back to the early 1930s, when Arthur Schalk and Hawn [1] described an outbreak of chicken respiratory disease in North Dakota (later called nosocomial infectious bronchitis). Subsequently, Beaudette and Hudson isolated the causative agent of this disease [2]. In the early 1940s, the first mammalian coronaviral diseases were described, including transmissible porcine gastroenteritis (TGES) and mouse hepatitis. The first human coronaviruses to cause acute respiratory viral infections (ARIs) were identified and studied only in the 1960s [3]. Many coronaviruses of the vertebrates have been described to date, but the human coronaviruses described over the past 20 years deserve the most careful attention. These include the causative agents of severe respiratory infections: HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome virus (MERS-CoV), the causative agent of SARS, and the novel causative agent of coronavirus infection COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) [4–7].

Morphological Features and Protein Composition of Coronaviruses The virions of Coronaviruses are large and have a diameter of ~125 nm. They are characterised by mostly spherical, sometimes pleomorphic (variable) forms. A characteristic feature of the morphology of virions is the presence of mushroom-like surface protrusions on their surface. The diameter of the coronavirus shell is on average

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Fig. 2.1 Morphological structure of a coronavirus © Scientifc Animations. https://www.scientifi canimations.com/coronavirus-symptoms-and-prevention-explained-through-medical-animation

85 nm, and the length of the protrusions, which in the literature are also called spikes, is 15–20 nm (Fig. 2.1). The virus has a two-layer electron-dense shell, consisting of a double lipid layer, in which structural proteins are fixed: membrane (M-protein), shell (E (envelope)-protein) and protrusion (S (spike)-protein) proteins [8]. The ratio between these antigenic determinants of E-protein: S-protein: M-protein in the lipid layer is approximately 1: 20: 300 [9]. Coronaviral virions have an average of 74 superficial spikes [8]. Surface spikes of coronaviruses consist of two protein subunits of S-protein, S1 and S2, which has size of about 150 kDa [10]. S-protein provides the ability of the virus to adhere to antigenic receptors of host cells and membrane fusion between them and virions. The subunit S1 forms the head of the surface processes of the virions and carries the domain of binding to cellular receptors of the host. The S2 subunit forms the stem of the appendix, which fixes the spike in the viral envelope, and when the economic proteases are activated, the virion and the sensitive cell merge. It should be noted that the S-protein has not only the largest size in the virion, but is also characterised by the largest number of hydrophobic (antigenically active) epitopes. This surface glycosylated protein is the main protective antigen of the virus. Some coronaviruses (beta-coronaviruses) also have shorter process structures on the surface, formed by hemagglutininsterase (GE) [10]. Proteins E and M provide the formation of the virion shell and are responsible for the stability of its structural form (Fig. 2.1) [11]. M protein is the main structural protein in the virion, represented in the largest amount. It is a small protein, ~25–30 kDa in size, which contains three transmembrane domains and is thought to be responsible for virion formation [12]. Most M-protein

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molecules do not contain a signal sequence. Recent studies suggest that the M protein exists as a dimer in the virion, and it can take on two different conformations, allowing it to contribute to membrane curvature as well as to bind to the nucleocapsid [13]. Protein E has 8–12 kDa size and is presented in the virions in small quantities. The membrane topology of the E-protein has not been fully studied, but most data suggest that it is a transmembrane protein. Unlike other structural proteins, recombinant viruses that lack protein E are not always lethal, although this depends on other viral proteins [14]. Protein E is involved in the collection of virions and the release of the virus from the affected cell after its accumulation in a critical amount. For example, the activity of ion channels of the protein E SARS-CoV is necessary for the development of the process in the host [15]. Inside the viral envelope, there is nucleocapsid, which consists of numerous copies of the nucleocapsid protein (N), which are associated with single-stranded RNA, which is represented by the coronavirus genome. Protein N is the only protein present in the nucleocapsid. It consists of two separate domains, the N-terminal domain (NTD) and the C-terminal domain (CTD), both capable of binding RNA by different biochemical mechanisms. The participation of both domains is required for optimal RNA binding [16]. N-protein is also highly phosphorylated [17]. This protein is a carrier of the linked viral RNA genome in the form of a bead on a string [18]. It was found that the signal sequence responsible for RNA packaging specifically binds to the C-terminal domain of RNA binding. The N-protein also binds the nonstructural sequence nsp3, a key component of the replicative complex, and the M protein [19, 20]. Such links between viral RNA and its proteins are likely to help bind the viral genome to the replicative transcriptase complex (RTC) and subsequently package the nucleoprotein-protected gene to the virions. A fifth structural protein, called the hemagglutinin esterase (HE-protein), which is unique to the beta-coronavirus subgroup, acts as hemagglutinin by binding sialic acids to surface glycoproteins and has acetylesterase activity [21]. It is believed that these functions enhance the activity of protein S in terms of adhesion on host cells, followed by infection. This promotes the effective attachment of coronaviruses and their spread in the body through mucous membranes [22]. It is also known that HEprotein enhances the neurovirulence of hepatitis M virus (MHV) [23]. At the same time, during the cultivation of beta-group coronaviruses in cell cultures in vitro, for unknown reasons, the expression of this protein almost completely disappears [24]. The lipid bilayer, in combination with membrane proteins and the nucleocapsid, protects the infectious genome of the virus when it is situated outside the susceptible host cells [13].

Classification of Coronaviruses Coronaviruses are the largest group of viruses of Nidovirales.

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All viruses of the order Nidovirales have a positive sense non-segmented RNA genome, large enough by the standards of RNA-containing viruses, up to 31.7 kb in size. Other common features of viruses of the order Nidovirales include: (1) (2) (3) (4)

highly organised genome, with a large regulatory gene of replication, which precedes the structural and auxiliary genes in the genomic sequence; expression of many non-structural genes by ribosomal shift of the reading frame; the presence of unique regulatory sequences of enzymatic mechanisms encoded within the large polyprotein of replicative transcriptase; sequential gene expression by synthesis of subgenomic mRNAs.

Hence the name of the order Nidovirales comes from auxiliary 3’-terminal mRNAs, as “nido” in Latin means a “nest.” The main differences between nidoviruses of different families are the number, type and size of structural proteins. They cause significant changes in the structure and morphology of nucleocapsids and virions in members of different families of nidoviruses [11], namely the families Coronaviridae, Arteriviridae, Mesoniviridae and Roniviridae. The family Coronaviridae contains the subfamilies Coronavirinae (actually coronaviruses) and Torovirinae. The subfamily Coronavirinae is divided into four subgroups: Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Deltacoronaviruses. The initial classification of coronaviruses, like most viruses, was based on their antigenic differences and linkages, described by serological methods [2, 25, 26]. The current classification is based on data from the analysis of phylogenetic connections of genomic sequences (Fig. 2.2).

Genomic Organisation of Coronaviruses Coronaviruses have the largest genomes (from 26.4 kb in HKU12 to 31.7 kb in SW) among the known RNA-containing viruses (Fig. 2.3) [26–28]. The GC ratio in the coronavirus genomes ranges from 32% (HCoV-HKU1) to 43% (Pi-BatCoV HKU5 and MunCoV HKU13) [27]. Thus, it is 41% in SARS-CoV, 37% in bovine coronaviruses, and 38% and 37% in porcine swine gastroenteritis and respiratory swine coronavirus (RCCV), respectively. The 5’- and 3’-ends of the coronaviral genomes contain short untranslated regions. The coding regions of all coronaviral genomes are characterised by a more or less identical structure, with a characteristic gene order: 5’-replicative region of open reading frames ORF-1a-ORF-1b, S-protein gene, after which the genome contains envelope protein genes (E), membrane protein (M), nucleocapsid protein (N). The transcriptional regulatory sequence is located at the 3’-end of the 5’-terminal initial sequence that precedes most of the open reading frame of the viral genome. It is believed that this sequence mediates a unique algorithm for RNA replication, which

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Fig. 2.2 Phylogenetic relationships of coronaviruses by pol gene sequences [26]

Fig. 2.3 Genomic organisation of different representatives of Coronaviridae [26]

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leads to a high frequency of homologous recombination in the RNA of coronaviruses [29]. The ORF-1a plot is 11826 to 13,425 in length, and the ORF-1b is ~8000–8200 in length. These reading frames of all coronaviruses have the same UUUAAAC interframe sequence. The complex of these reading frameworks plays a regulatory role, encoding the papain-like and 3C-like proteases responsible for S-protein processing. In addition, these reading frames encode 15 to 16 nonstructural proteins (nsp 1– 16) in various coronaviruses, including viral enzymes polymerase (pol, nsp12) and helicase (hel, nsp13). Non-structural proteins are quite conservative within viral species (variability according to our data is up to 1.5%), which makes them suitable for species identification of coronaviruses and their phylogenetic analysis by experimental studies by sequencing. In all members of subgroup A of the genus betacoronavirus, the hemagglutinin esterase (HE) gene is located immediately after the ORF1a/b genetic motif, before the S-protein gene. The HE gene of the coronavirus is thought to be an example of so-called heterologous recombination and acquired as a result of cell infection with coronavirus and human influenza C virus [30]. The presence of the gene is not exclusively in members of beta-coronavirus subgroup A, but not in viruses of subgroups B, C and D suggests that recombination probably occurred in the phylogenetic precursor of beta-coronavirus subgroup A, after evolutionary departure from the ancestors of other subgroups of beta-coronaviruses. The next gene in the coronavirus genome is the S protein gene. The S gene forms a polypeptide product that undergoes proteolytic cleavage during virion harvesting. In all coronaviruses, most of the S protein is located on the outside of the virion (the head or cap of the process), with a short transmembrane domain at the C-terminus and a short cytoplasmic tail rich in cysteine residues. The nucleotide sequences responsible for the synthesis of the S1 domains are much more variable than the S2 domains, which determines both their genetic and the genetic diversity of coronaviruses mediated by them. When analysing the translated sequences of these domains, high levels of hydrophobicity of the sequences are noted, which characterizes their outstanding antigenic competence (Fig. 2.4). The next genetic sequences in the coronavirus genome are the E- and M-protein genes, which encode small transmembrane proteins that form the virion envelope. Although these two genes are present in the genome of all coronaviruses, they are not effective targets for phylogenetic studies of interspecific ligaments due to their short sequences. The nucleoprotein gene closes a series of structural genes in the genome of coronaviruses. It also has a high degree of hydrophobicity, which allows it to be used as a target for the creation of diagnostic antigens. And the intraspecific conservatism of its sequence makes this gene a suitable target for phylogenetic studies of the relatedness of coronaviruses of different groups, as in the case of the polymerase gene (Fig. 2.2). In addition to the structural and nonstructural protein genes mentioned above, the coronavirus genome contains a different number of short open reading frames. In some coronaviruses, these loci are located after the N gene. The function of

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Fig. 2.4 The 3-D model of the S1 subunit of the human coronavirus S-protein HCoV-229E (colour gradation corresponds to the intensity of hydrophobicity) [31]

most of these motives has not been studied. Exceptions are small open reading frames localized after the F gene of feline infectious peritonitis virus (FIPV) and transmissible swine gastroenteritis virus, which are important for virulence and viral replication [32, 33]. Another exception is the SARS-CoV protein 3a, which forms a transmembrane complex and regulates the release of the virus from the infected cell [34]. The wide variety of existing epidemically and epizootologically significant species of coronaviruses leads to significant scientific interest in their study. From a veterinary point of view, coronavirus infections of pigs (transmissible gastroenteritis of pigs (TGES), respiratory coronavirus infection of pigs (RCVS) and endemic diarrhoea of pigs (EDS), poultry (infectious bronchitis of chickens) and cattle are of great economic importance).

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Characteristics of Individual Coronavirus Infections of Animals Swine coronavirus infections are Alpha-coronavirus infections that include nosological units such as transmissible gastroenteritis, respiratory swine coronavirus infection, and endemic swine diarrhoea. Transmissible gastroenteritis of pigs and respiratory coronavirus infection of pigs (TGES and RCVIS). TGES is a viral disease of pigs accompanied by gastrointestinal lesions caused by the RNA-containing Alphacoronavirus, a transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) that belongs to the Coronaviridae family. In the mid-1980s, another causative agent of swine disease with a coronaviral aetiology was described, the respiratory coronavirus. This factor is a deletion mutant of the TGEV virus. Its role in infectious pathology of animals is insignificant, however, due to the antigenic affinity of both viruses, there are significant difficulties in serological differentiation. RCVIS causes respiratory disorders in pigs of all ages, which are most pronounced in newborns and weaned piglets. Laboratory diagnosis of infections is carried out comprehensively, taking into account the data on the indication and identification of viruses, their nucleic acids and virus-specific antibodies in serological reactions. Identification of the factor. The virus is detected by isolation in cell cultures, by electron microscopy, various immunodiagnostic tests and by the detection of RNA factor. The most common methods are the detection of the virus in the faeces of patients and virus carriers by ELISA and in intestinal cryographs by immunofluorescence. Differentiation of viruses from the causative agent of enzootic diarrhoea in pigs, which also has a coronavirus nature, is carried out by electron microscopy. Serological tests. Serological tests are performed using neutralization reactions and ELISA. Differentiation of TGEV and RCVIS is performed by crossneutralisation with monoclonal antibodies to each of the viruses. In order to molecularly diagnose this disease, we adapted the protocol for detection of TGES and RKVIS viruses (Table 2.1) as its deletion mutant by the S gene using classical PCR according to the protocol advanced by O. Kim [35]. The protocol was successfully validated and implemented in the practice of laboratory diagnostics (Guidelines for the detection of porcine viruses by PCR (approved by the NMR of the State Committee of Veterinary Medicine of Ukraine, protocol no. 1 from 23–24 December 2009). Endemic swine diarrhoea (ESD), also called enzootic swine diarrhoea, is a viral disease of pigs caused by Alphacoronavirus and characterized by watery diarrhoea and depletion. The disease was first described in 1971 in the UK, but is now found in Table 2.1 Primers for detection of TGEV and RCVIS RNA Causative agent

Primers

Amplicon size

1

TGEV

TGE/RCVIS_F/R, S-gene, Kim, 2000 [35]

1020

2

RCVIS

210

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almost all countries with developed pig farming. The disease affects pigs of all ages, but the infection is most pronounced in newborn piglets, reaching 100% morbidity and mortality. ESD is a contagious disease, transmitted mainly by faecal-oral route. The disease is clinically similar to transmissible gastroenteritis of pigs, including anorexia, vomiting, diarrhoea and dehydration [36, 37]. This disease is diagnosed comprehensively, taking into account clinical and epizootiological data, clinical observations and patterns, but the key components of diagnosis are laboratory testing. They are based on the detection of antiviral antibodies by ELISA and the detection of the viral genome by polymerase chain reaction [37, 38]. Today, vaccines are available to control all of these pig coronavirus infections, both serial (TGES and ESD) and experimental. Due to the comparable genetic and antigenic stability of Alphacoronaviruses, these vaccines are quite effective, but the greatest protective effect is characterized by products made from epizootic-regionally significant strains of the pathogen [39]. These viruses do not have a specific zoonotic potential. The coronaviral infection of cattle is a contagious infectious disease of calves aged mostly from one week to three months, characterised by diarrhoea, dehydration and anorexia. It is caused by the Beta-coronavirus of the species Bovine coronavirus [40]. Morbidity and mortality varies greatly depending on the use of specific prevention, sanitary and treatment-and-prophylactic regimens and schemes implemented in a particular farm. Coronaviral infection of cattle is a factor disease, the pathological effect of which can be both partially mitigated and significantly exacerbated by, respectively, proper or improper housing conditions, the state of their natural resistance and epizootic background to other bacterial and viral diseases. In Ukraine, this problem was described in 1970 under Professor E.V.Andreev’s guidance requirements. During this period, the staff of the National Research Centre Institute of Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine (IECVM) (called Ukrainian Research Institute of Experimental Veterinary Medicine at the time) isolated cattle coronavirus from sick calves and studied its biological properties for the first time in the USSR. The fundamental knowledge gained since that time about the ecology and biology of the pathogen has been used to create tools to control the epizootic situation of coronavirus infection in cattle. To date, IECVM scientists have developed, tested and successfully implemented immunobiological drugs that are effectively used to control the disease: • kit for the diagnosis of rota- and coronavirus infection in the reaction of hemagglutination delay RoCo-test (HA inhibition test); • kit for the diagnosis of coronaviral infection in the immunofluorescence reaction (IF test); • vaccine inactivated against rota- and coronavirus infection of cattle “Rocogen” [41–46]; • vaccine inactivated against rota-, coronaviral infection in cattle and Escherichia coli infection [47, 48].

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These developments are characterised by appropriate sensitivity and specificity, and also meet the current World Organisation for Animal Health recommendations for diagnostic tests (HI and IF tests) and vaccines against bovine coronaviral infection. Today, the laboratory constantly monitors the spread of the causative agent of coronavirus infection in cattle in the conditions of the introduction of specific prophylaxis, including foreign production [49–52]. The epizootic isolates isolated during this work were adapted to transplanted sheep kidney cells (PO-2) and coronary vessels of calves, their activity and other biological properties were studied. Strains cloned on their basis were deposited in the Collection of Microorganisms in IECVM, which has given the status of National Heritage (2014). Their practical use is aimed at designing vaccines and diagnostic kits for the control of coronavirus infection in cattle [44, 47, 49] In order to identify the virus already detected in cell cultures, including cattle semen, a technique for detecting virus RNA at the site of the N gene was introduced [53]. There are no data on the pathogenicity of Bovine coronavirus for humans in the literature. However, one should note that in addition to the species Bovine coronavirus, Beta-coronaviruses include other species, such as pathogens for animals (Hedgehog coronavirus 1—hedgehogs, Rousettus bat coronavirus HKU9 - bats, etc.) and for humans (pathogens SARS, MERS, SARS-CoV2 and Human coronavirus OC43) [39]. As for domestic and wild birds, coronaviruses are quite common among them. Several infections caused by coronaviruses have been reported in poultry: infectious bronchitis of chickens, coronavirus enteritis of turkeys. Infectious bronchitis of chickens (IBC) is an acute contagious infectious disease of birds, etiologically caused by Avian coronavirus (genus Gammacoronavirus). In chickens, mostly in young, the disease occurs in the form of acute respiratory infection with high mortality, as well as in the form of disorders of the reproductive system in laying hens, characterised by reduced egg production and egg quality. Infectious bronchitis in chickens is a very common infectious disease in all countries of the world. Also in the world described turkey coronavirus, which is pathogenic to chickens and turkeys, and causes mostly intestinal lesions in sensitive bird species, in the form of enteritis and weight loss. Vaccines (live attenuated, inactivated, recombinant) with satisfactorily high immunogenicity and anti-epizootic efficacy have been developed and actively used to control and prevent coronavirus infections in domestic birds [54–61]. In Ukraine, scientists from the IECMV and the NAAS Poultry Research Station have developed a number of polyvalent vaccines to control infectious bronchitis. In preclinical and clinical conditions, taking into account the current requirements of the World Organisation for Animal Health and the European Union, their safety, immunogenicity and population prophylactic efficacy have been proven [62, 63].

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The effect of these drugs on the immunocompetent organs of birds and the development of the immune response using innovative immunological methods has been studied [64–66]. In order to control antiviral immunity in accordance with the World Organisation for Animal Health standards for the diagnosis of IBC, IECMV developed test systems based on ELISA, which are suitable for the study of both individual and population post-infectious and post-vaccination immunity [67–71]. For direct detection and differentiation of the virus (IBC virus has a very complex serological structure) developed methods for virus detection by PCR using recombinant control samples [72]. A large number of coronaviruses have been detected in wild birds over the past few years. Thus, the coronavirus was found in pheasants, partridges, wild ducks, wild geese. In some cases, these are IBC-like viruses (viruses similar to chicken infectious bronchitis virus). At the same time, a fairly large group consists of new avian coronaviruses. In most cases, they were detected using molecular genetic research methods and their pathogenicity for other species of birds, animals and humans is currently unknown [73, 74]. To date, there is also no information on the possible transmission of coronaviruses from wild birds to humans, as well as possible complications. But at the same time, it should be noted that recent studies indicate the potential for interspecific transmission of some coronaviruses from birds of one species to birds of other species and to some mammals (pigs). Therefore, it is very important to study the ecology of the latest coronaviruses in natural reservoirs in different regions of the world. To date, IECVM has been actively participating in the study of the ecology of the latest pathogens of coronaviruses that can circulate among domestic and wild birds. Thus, the research on the circulation of infectious bronchitis in chickens in poultry and the development of specific diagnostics and prevention are being conducted in IECVM since the 90 s of last century. Since 2000, the studies of the circulation of coronaviruses among wild birds were commenced and the presence of antibodies to the infectious bronchitis virus (avian coronavirus) in some species of wild and synanthropic birds, was detected [75]. It can be concluded that there is no proven risk to human health from coronaviruses in farm animals. However, due to the significant lability of coronavirus genomes, the issues of ecology and evolution of these pathogens need constant attention from the medical and veterinary scientific community in order to identify and minimise the risks of inter-species infection by coronaviruses in a timely manner.

Coronavirus Infections of Humans Seven major human coronavirus infections are known: HCoV-OC43 (one of the most archaic types), HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV (SARS-CoV-1) and SARS-CoV-2 -19).

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They may cause both trivial “seasonal” acute viral respiratory disorders and severe respiratory illnesses with mass morbidity, high mortality and significant socio-economic consequences (SARS-CoV, epidemic in Asia 2002–2003, 8096, sick, 774 dead) [76], Middle Eastern coronavirus respiratory syndrome, outbreaks in Asia in 2012–2015, 2538 cases, 871 deaths) [77] and a new coronavirus infection COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2, a pandemic that began in late 2019 and affecting large percentage of human population) [78]. All these pathogens belong to the group of beta-coronaviruses.

Development of Vaccines for Specific Prevention of SARS-CoV2 In the context of the pandemic spread of a new type of human coronavirus pneumonia (SARS-CoV2), the issue of disease control is particularly relevant. In this direction, there are two main trends in the development of infection control systems: the development of treatments and the creation of means of its specific prevention. To date, according to a press release from the US National Institutes of Health, there are approximately 760 cycles of preclinical trials of therapeutic, prophylactic and vaccine drugs for the control of SARS-CoV2 (www.nih.gov). Note that in the development of vaccines against coronavirus infections, generally accepted approaches are usually used. The classic option is inactivated vaccines that contain corpuscular (whole virion) antigen, obtained by inactivating a live virus. This variant of the vaccine requires manipulation of the live virus and the accumulation of its biomass in significant quantities [79, 80]. In addition to material costs, live virus in culture can mutate, so it must be constantly checked or periodically replaced with a new strain, the use of which must be re-validated. The use of inactivated virus as a vaccine antigen is considered quite dangerous and requires a large number of tests [80]. Cultivation of particularly hazardous pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2, requires strict adherence to biosafety and biosecurity. Due to the considerable airborne contagiousness of this virus, all manipulations with it, especially in large quantities, pose extremely high biorisks, both for laboratory staff and ordinary citizens in case of intentional or unintentional release of the pathogen into the environment. Obtaining immunogenic vaccines in a safer and more cost-effective way is due to the development of vaccine antigens of recombinant origin. This is achieved by ligation of the target gene of the virus, which is responsible for the synthesis of immunogenic protein into the composition of the plasmid vector, which transforms a safe and easy to cultivate object (e.g., E. coli bacteria, yeast, etc.) [81, 82]. Recombinant viral vectors are well known withal. In particular, the genes of the MERS pathogen were introduced into the genome of the human rubella vaccine virus, on the basis of which a suitable candidate drug was constructed [83].

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With regard to human coronavirus pneumonia of the new type, to date the WHO has approved the admission to preclinical testing of more than 110 candidate drugs, which include DNA vaccines (USA, China), recombinant vaccines (Canada, EU) and inactivated vaccines based on SARS-CoV-2 (China, Kazakhstan). The mechanism of formation of the immune response in SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans has not been studied in detail yet. The virus enters target cells using ACE2 receptors (these receptors are also used by the SARS virus, while the MERS virus enters the body through DPP-4 receptors), which are found in large quantities in the lungs and to a lesser extent in other human organs, e.g. in the intestinal tract. In response to penetration, the human body produces large amounts of inflammatory cytokines, including IL-2, IL-7, IL-10, G-CSF, IP-10, MCP-1 and MIP-1A. It has been suggested that the induction of “cytokine storm” event may play a key role in the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 (SARS and MERS viruses possibly have similar development of “cytokine storm” in the body). Cytokines can cause viremia, which leads to pneumonia, oedema, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), functional organ failure, intoxication, and sometimes may ultimately lead to death. At the same time, it is interferon type I (INF-I) that can play a key role in the development of an effective immune response to SARS-CoV-2, as it triggers molecular cascades that lead to the secretion of transcription factor nF-kB interactions with interleukins and TNF [84, 85]. SARS-CoV-2 proteins such as S, N, P, E and some non-structural ORF proteins, are considered key factors in shaping the immune response of the host organism. In response to the presentation of S-protein, the infected organism initiates the synthesis of a large number of neutralising antibodies and initiates T-cell immunity response. At present, both the single recombinant antigen, S-protein, and plasmid vectors containing this protein or individual receptor-binding domains are considered the most perspective candidates for vaccine development. Nucleocapsid glycoprotein (N) is also a potential agent for vaccine development, as it, like S-protein, induces the formation of both T cell response and neutralising antibodies in the host organism [80, 84]. Unlike non-structural ORF proteins, which mutate more often, S and N proteins are more stable, so a candidate vaccine based on them can potentially be characterised by proper immunogenicity and efficacy [85, 86]. Given the potential efficacy of this solution, we initiated pilot studies to clone in silico genes of these two viral proteins into expressing plasmid vectors for subsequent transformation of bacterial and yeast cells to obtain recombinant antigens. With the help of GeneBank, complete sequences of genes encoding the target proteins of the Wuhan-19 strain were found. Primer systems for the development and cloning of target fragments of the viral genome, as well as internal primers for screening recombinant clones have been developed. In the future, based on these data, candidate drugs and vaccines for immunisation against SARS-CoV-2 will be constructed and tested on laboratory animals.

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Conclusions Coronaviruses represent a significant number of species, variable and genetically plastic (in terms of mutations and recombination) group of RNA-containing viruses. The instability of the viral genome, and, as a consequence, the divergence of the antigenic structure of these pathogens will necessitate an in-depth study of their ecology and biological properties. Despite the lack of potential anthropopathogenicity in animal coronaviruses, they can serve as an effective model for testing the effectiveness of disinfectants and direct antiviral therapies designed to control SARS-CoV-2 infection. A promising area for the development of specific prevention of SARS-CoV-2 is the development of candidate drugs and vaccines based on recombinant surface and internal antigens of the pathogen. Acknowledgement This work was supported by UAAS (1994–2007) and NAAS (2007–2020) Scientific-technical program grants funded by the Government of Ukraine via National Academy for Agrarian Sciences (prior – Ukrainian Academy for Agrarian Sciences), under supervision of veterinary section of NAAS by the order of State Consumer Protection Service of Ukraine (State Department for Veterinary Medicine, State Committee for Veterinary Medicine, State Veterinary and Phytosanitary Service of Ukraine).

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Chapter 3

SARS-CoV-2 Zoonotic Potential: Current Knowledge and Hypotheses Fr priest Anton P. Gerilovych, Borys T. Stegniy, Larysa V. Kovalenko, Yurii K. Dunaiev, Natalia S. Rodyna, Oksana V. Kinash, Vasiliy L. Arefiev, Iryna O. Gerilovych, Tatyana B. Didyk, Victoria S. Boiko, and Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach Abstract SARS-CoV-2 zoonotic potential is discussed in this Chapter. COVID-19 demonstrates the failure of biosafety and security systems and safeguards that should prevent a global pandemic of this emergency. According to researchers, zoonotic diseases will continue to cross the animal-human barrier causing the additional risks for emergency. SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread covered over 800 million cats and F. A. P. Gerilovych (B) · B. T. Stegniy · L. V. Kovalenko · Y. K. Dunaiev · V. L. Arefiev · I. O. Gerilovych · T. B. Didyk · V. S. Boiko Institute for Experimental and Clinical Veterinary Medicine, 83 Pushkinskaya st, Kharkov 61023, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] B. T. Stegniy e-mail: [email protected] L. V. Kovalenko e-mail: [email protected] Y. K. Dunaiev e-mail: [email protected] V. L. Arefiev e-mail: [email protected] I. O. Gerilovych e-mail: [email protected] T. B. Didyk e-mail: [email protected] V. S. Boiko e-mail: [email protected] N. S. Rodyna IKyiv Oblast Laboratory Centre of Ministry of Health of Ukraine, KyivOLC, 33 Hertsena St., Kyiv 01001, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] O. V. Kinash Department for Histology, Cytology and Embryology, Ukrainian Medical and Dental Academy, 39 Evropeyskaya St., Poltava 3611, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_3

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dogs kept as pets worldwide, as well as large segment of animal farming industry, that raises concerns of domestic and farmed animals in general and carnivores in particular, becoming an epidemiologically relevant animal source for COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 control strategies have to pay attention to the close interaction between humans and companion or farmed animals contributes to human infections. The SARS-CoV-2 mitigation strategies have to take into the account the existing zoonotic transmission, and should be developed in a One Health framework, implementing molecular and serological surveillance as well as epidemiological assessment of SARS-CoV-2 occurrence in domestic and farmed animals alongside humans.

Introduction The emergent infectious diseases produce multiple threats to humanity, and COVID19 is a perfect example. One health approach handles the issues of emerging threats by integrating professionals from various disciplines: human medicine, veterinary medicine, environmental health, and social sciences. This correlates the interconnections between people, animals, and the environment, to improve the health of people and animals, including pets, livestock, and wildlife. The one health approach performs the effective mitigating the threats of emerging infectious diseases. The effective measurement, when an outbreak happens, include several aspects addressed to analysis and understanding of origin, native hosts, intermediate hosts, mutational tendency, transmission characteristics between animals-to-humans, and humans-to-humans concerning the selected causative agent. The natural ecology aspects of the pathogens are very important for effective control strategy development [1]. The understanding, that bats are the primary source for the majority of infectious agents during the latest epidemics, understanding the habitats and diversity of bat species as reservoir hosts for coronaviruses and multiple other viruses is vital. One health measurement is needed to understand and minimize the interactions between bats, other “high-risk” wild animals, and humans [2]. Understanding of early transmission ways in the disease cycle is very important. If the inter-human transmission is the reason for the rapid spread of disease, corrective measures such as practicing social distancing, using personal protective equipment, and avoiding unnecessary travel to limit the transmission might play a vital role in containing the outbreak. The public should also be educated on measures like self-quarantining when exposed to a person with a positive disease and seeking medical attention when they develop symptoms of the disease. The adoption of principles from one health approach helps in effectively coordinating these complex multidisciplinary tasks. F. E. I. Legach Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 23 Pereyaslavskaya St., Kharkov 61016, Ukraine e-mail: [email protected]

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Two large-scale pandemics were associated with coronaviruses in the past two decades: SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) [3, 4]. The general opinion was existed that SARS-CoV, mainly detected in bats, could potentially be the reason of future disease outbreak [5, 6]. Both Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are likely originated in bats, and genetically diverse coronaviruses that are related to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were discovered in bats worldwide. Extensive surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 should be done in all animals, including domestic livestock, companion animals, and wild animals, as they can be potential reservoirs or intermediate hosts, permit viral transmission among themselves, and can generate new viral strains [1]. Genetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 along with other CoVs (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV) in the past to identify the intermediate host is one of the significant one health aspects. Once the origins of SARS-CoV-2 are established, the next step is to identify the appropriate measures to attenuate the transmission. Failure to identify and establish the intermediate host in the disease cycle can cause future outbreaks. Additionally, identifying intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV2 also helps to understand the disease dynamics, host–pathogen interactions, and the possibility of reverse zoonosis. Cui et al. [5] summarized the current knowledge on the origin and evolution of these two pathogenic coronaviruses and discuss their receptor usage. It was also highlighted the diversity and potential of human transmission of bat-borne coronaviruses, as evidenced by the recent outbreaks of swine acute diarrhoea syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV) to pigs (Fig. 3.1).

Animal Origin and Evolution of SARS-CoV At the beginning of the SARS epidemic, most of identified patients had animal exposure before developing disease. After SARS coronavirus and antibodies against it were detected in masked palm civets (Paguma larvata) and in animal holders’ specimens in a market place [5]. Later the further research demonstrated that farmed and wild-caught civets were infected by other animals [6]. Two groups of researchers independently reported the discovery of novel coronaviruses related to human SARS-CoV, which were named SARS-CoV-related viruses or SARS-like coronaviruses. They were detected in horseshoe bats (genus Rhinolophus) [7, 8]. These discoveries demonstrated the evidence, that bats may be the natural hosts for SARS-CoV that was associated with 99,8% homology of their sequences in comparison with human isolates [5]. According to the International Viral Taxonomy Committee criteria, only the strains found in Rhinolophus bats in European, Southeast Asian countries, and China belonged to SARS-CoV. Isolates, detected in Hipposideros bats in Africa are less closely related to SARS-CoV and have to be classified as new coronaviral species.

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Fig. 3.1 Animal origins of human coronaviruses. Cui et al. [5]

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SARS-CoVs demonstrated high prevalence and great genetic diversity in bats, as well as close coexistence and the frequent recombination of different coronaviral species. This circumstance creates the expectation of novel emergent variants genesis in future [9, 10]. Because there were no SARS cases in Yunnan province during the SARS outbreak, Ciu et al. [5] hypothesized that the direct progenitor of SARSCoV was produced by recombination within bats and then transmitted to farmed civets or another mammal, which then transmitted the virus to civets by faecal–oral transmission. When the virus-infected civets were transported to Guangdong market, the virus was spread in market animals with further infection of humans. The collected data on genetic evolution, receptor binding and pathogenesis demonstrated that SARS-CoV most likely originated in bats through sequential recombination of bat SARS-CoVs. Recombination likely occurred in bats before SARS-CoV was introduced into Guangdong province through infected civets or other infected mammals from Yunnan. The introduced SARS-CoV underwent rapid mutations in S and orf8 and successfully spread in civets presented on the market. After several independent transmissions of virus to humans, some of the strains underwent further mutations in S gene and became epidemic during the SARS outbreak in 2002–2003. However, a recent serological investigation revealed the presence of antibodies against the SARS-CoV nucleocapsid in human sera of individuals living hear bat caves without clinical signs of disease, suggesting that the virus can infect humans through frequent contact [11]. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is a new coronavirus that emerged through recombination of bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) [12]. The recombined virus infected civets and humans and adapted to these hosts before causing the SARS epidemic [13]. The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) likely transmitted from bats to dromedary camels at least 30 years ago and since then has been prevalent in dromedary camels. HCoV-229E and HCoV-NL63 usually cause mild infections in immunocompetent humans [14]. Progenitors of these viruses have recently been found in African bats, and the camelids are likely intermediate hosts of HCoV-229E [15, 16]. HCoV-OC43 and HKU1, both of which are also mostly harmless in humans, hypothetically originated in rodents. Several years ago the novel disease—swine acute diarrhoea syndrome (SADS) has been observed in pigs. This disease is caused by the novel strain of Rhinolophus bat coronavirus HKU2, named SADS coronavirus (SADS-CoV) [17]. There is no evidence of infection of humans with this agent. SARS-CoVs and bat SARS-related-CoVs mainly vary in three regions: S-gene, and ORF 8 and 3 genes. SARS-related coronaviruses, detected in bats, demonstrate high sequence identity with SARS-CoV in the S2 region but are highly variable in the S1-encoding region. Compared with human and civet SARS-CoV, bat SARS-CoVs S1 can be divided into two clades: clade 1 associated with Yunnan province, has the same size S protein as human and civet isolates, whereas clade 2, that was found in many regions, has a shorter size of S protein [18, 19].

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Among the sequenced bat SARSr-CoVs, those with deletions in their receptor binding areas demonstrate the rates of identity of 78.2–80.2% amino acid sequences with SARS-CoV in the S-protein. Those without deletions are much more closely related to SARS-CoV, with up to 97.2% amino acid sequence identity. The second variable region is ORF-8. Most of bat SARS-CoVs demonstrate 47.7–100% sequence identity among themselves and 50.6–98.4% with SARS-CoV in civets and humans. The European bat SARS-CoVs completely lost the ORF-8 sequences [20]. Taking into account the variability of ORF-8 CoVs, detected in bats, civets and humans, the further study the ORF-8 functions could be the priority, particularly the contribution of these different variants to viral pathogenesis. The third variable region of the coronaviral genomes is ORF-3. The SARSCoV genome encodes a 154-amino acid ORF3b, which is an interferon antagonist. Bat SARS-related CoVs and human-origin SARS-CoV are 96.4–98.9% amino acid similar in ORF3a. Also bat SARS-origin CoVs have different sizes of ORF3b (54–154 amino acids), large part of the region encoding ORF3b overlaps with the ORF3a coding region. ORF3b retains the anti-interferon function in some bat SARS-related-CoVs but has lost the function in other bat SARS-CoVs [21]. Also the novel accessory gene, named orfx, located between orf6 and orf7, was identified. It was indicated that ORFX is involved in an anti-interferon response [22].

Animal Origin and Diversity of MERS-Coronavirus The early MERS cases have been described as associated with dromedary camels. MERS-CoV strains allocated from camels had strong identity with those isolated from humans [23]. Anti-MERS-CoV antibodies were detected in camels from the Middle East, Africa and Asia countries in the high titres. Also MERS-CoVs Ab were detected in camel serum samples collected 30 years ago, that notifies the virus prevalence in these animals since the long time ago [14]. The genomic sequence analysis demonstrated high homology levels of MERSCoV, Tylonycteris bat coronavirus HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat coronavirus HKU5 [24]. The listed viruses have are highly conserved in their polyproteins and most structural proteins genes, but their spike proteins and accessory proteins are highly variable. MERSr-CoV was detected in 14 bat species belonging to two bat families, Vespertilionidae and Nycteridae [25]. All the MERSr-CoVs isolated from bats demonstrate, that MERS-CoV was also originated from bats. The phylogenetic gap exists between the bat MERSr-CoVs, and human and camel isolates of MERS-CoVs that probably is associated with their circulation in nature and direct contribution to the emergence of MERS-CoV in humans and camels. The recombination events took place in the evolution and emergence of MERSCoV. The phylogenetic trees constructed based in the full-length genomes suggesting potential recombination in ORF1ab and S-genes [26]. Numerous recombinations

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imply that MERS-CoV originated from the exchange of genetic elements between different viral ancestors, including those isolated from camels and the assumed natural host bats [27, 28]. The whole genomic sequences of MERS-CoV isolates, allocated from humans and camels have >99% identity. The major variations are located in S-, ORF4b- and ORF3-genes, particularly in African camel isolates. A few amino acid substitutions were observed in S-protein sequences of some camel isolates, but they were not located in the receptor binding sites. The virus neutralization assay indicated camel sera to be positive for MERS-CoV with possibility to completely neutralize the human MERS-CoV strains, that indicates their antigenic similarity. Humans and camel origin MERS-CoVs contain variable ORF3- and ORF4-proteins with different lengths because of terminal truncations or internal deletions. The bat derived MERSr-CoVs and human and camel isolates have the same genomic structures but essential differences in their genomic sequences [29]. The sequence identity between bat MERSr-CoV and human-camel MERS-CoV is around 85% [28]. The most vary genetic domains in bat MERSr-CoVs in comparison with human and camel MERS-CoV, is S protein and accessory genes. The nucleotide sequences identity in the S protein among bat MERSr-CoVs and human and camel MERS-CoVs is approximately 45–65 [28].

SARS-CoV-2: Origin and Ways of Introduction The unidentified pneumonia disease outbreak has been described in Wuhan, Hubei province, central China. Initially, this disease outbreak, which started from a local seafood market, has grown substantially to infect 2,761 people in China, is associated with 80 deaths and has led to the infection of 33 people in 10 additional countries as of 26 January 2020. Today it became pandemic almost all over the World, causing illness in 62.8 million people, including 1.46 million fatal cases [30]. The typical clinical symptoms of patients on initial step of pandemics were fever, dry cough, breathing difficulties (dyspnoea), headache and pneumonia. It appears that most of the early cases had contact history with the original seafood market; however, the disease has now progressed to be transmitted by human-to-human contact. Samples from seven patients with severe, who were admitted to the intensive care unit of Wuhan Jin Yin-Tan Hospital at the beginning of the outbreak, were sent to the laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) for the diagnosis of the causative pathogen. The 10,038,758 total reads—of which 1,582 total reads were retained after filtering of reads from the human genome—1,378 (87.1%) sequences matched the sequence of SARSr-CoV (Fig. 3.2). As it was reported by the China CDC, 33 out of 585 environmental samples from the Wuhan Seafood markets showed evidence of SARS-CoV-2 [32]. These samples were mostly from the market’s western portion, where wildlife was sold. No scientific

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Fig. 3.2 Wuhan SARS-CoV-2 strain nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis [31]

evidence on the detection and isolation of SARS-CoV-2 from the seafood market apart have been described by China CDC. SARS-CoV-2 most likely originated in Rhinolophus affinis bat species based on 96.2% genomic homology between SARS-CoV-2 and BatCoV RaTG13 [31, 33]. BatCoV RaTG13 diverges at receptor binding domain of S-protein, which suggests that it may not bind efficiently with human ACE2 and could have evolved in a different animal species before infecting humans. Previous study of other human CoVs-SARSCoV and MERS-CoV concluded that Himalayan palm civets and dromedary camels acted as intermediate hosts, that further study will allow to conduct the evaluation of the host–pathogen interaction and disease dynamics [1]. There initial hypotheses was based on assumption, that snakes or turtles [34–36] could be possible intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2. Luan et al. [37] disproved these theories based on the composition of angiothensin enzyme (ACE2) in these animals and their differences with its human homologue. They also implied that simulated structures indicated ACE2 proteins from animals of Bovidae and Cricetidae (hamsters) families were sufficient for association with SARS-CoV-2 S-protein receptor binding domain. The ACE2-SARS-CoV-2 S-protein interactions in palm civets demonstrated that palm civets were less likely to be suspected as the intermediate hosts. SARS-CoV-2 is less likely to replicate efficiently in rats and mice, ruling them out as intermediate hosts [37]. Also this researchers’ group declared the hypothesis, that pigs, ferrets, cats, and non-human primates might serve as intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2.

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It is also known, that SARS-CoV-2 is able to cause permissive infections in ferrets and cats, implying the possibility of other animals as potential reservoirs or intermediate hosts [38]. Also pangolins were indicated for the role of intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2. The viral genomic analyses of dead pangolins from the Guangdong wildlife rescue center revealed that two out of the 11 pangolins carried viral genomes belonging to SARS-CoV-like coronaviruses [39]. Coronavirus isolates allocated from pangolins were identical in genomes comparison to SARS-CoV-2 by 91.02% and to bat originated coronavirus RaTG13 by 90.55%. Moreover, the S1-protein sequence of the pangolin coronavirus is more closely related to SARS-CoV-2 than BatCoV RaTG13. Specifically, the five key amino acid residues in the binding site of S-protein involved in the interaction with human ACE2 receptors are entirely consistent between pangolin-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 [40]. The presence of two sub-lineages of CoVs in pangolins that were seized in Southern China was reported [41]. One of the sub-lineages was very closely related to SARS-CoV-2 at the receptor-binding domain. It was also reported that one of Malayan pangolins’ coronaviruses demonstrated 90.4–100% amino acid identity with SARS-CoV-2 in the E, M, N, and S genes [42]. Wong et al. [43] also made hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 has originated in horseshoe bats but most likely evolved in pangolins based on a higher sequence identity at S1 that aids with host infection. The genome similarity of SARS and MERS CoVs is 99.8% and 99.5% to that found in civet cats and dromedary camels, respectively. Even though RBD of pangolin-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are structurally identical, they are only 91% identical at the whole genome [40]. Pangolins were not sampled in Wuhan or nearby locations to proof pangolin involvement in the story. Therefore, more studies are needed on different wild animal species, including pangolins that are sold at the same wet market or similar markets before concluding pangolins as definitive intermediate hosts. There were described a numerous of other potential SARS-CoV-2 essential reservoirs. SARS-CoV-2 can replicate well in both upper and lower respiratory tracts of cats and ferrets [38]. SARS-CoV-2 infection can also be transmitted among cats and among ferrets via air droplets and through direct contacts [44, 45]. The same study declares the dogs appearance to be less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Also virus replicated poorly in pigs, chickens, and ducks. There are also reports positive SARS-CoV-2 testing of two dogs, two cats, four tigers, and three lions [46]. These animals probably became infected via contacts with their holders and personnel. Based on these findings, SARS-CoV-2 could be indicated as the potential reverse zoonosis (transmission from humans to animals) as well. But no positive testing results were described in animals (cats, dogs, and horses) with respiratory symptoms. More research is needed to understand the extent of reverse zoonosis, and if the virus from infected companion animals in its native/mutated form is capable of zoonosis. Extensive surveillance for the presence of viral RNA/antibodies in domestic animals and wildlife is needed.

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Zoonotic Origin of Human Coronaviruses Endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) include the alphacoronaviruses HCoV-229E and HCoV-NL63, as well as the betacoronaviruses HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-OC43, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and the novel SARS-CoV-2 (Fig. 3.3). SARS-related coronaviruses, including both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 as well as multiple genetically highly diversified bat-associated strains (summarized as SARS-related CoVs henceforth) can infect different hosts belonging to four different mammalian orders, including bats, carnivores, pangolins and primates. The large diversity of conspecific bat coronaviruses and their close genetic relationship to human viruses suggest that bats are potential animal reservoirs of the majority of HCoVs (Fig. 3.4) [20, 47]. Rhinolophid bats (Rhinolophus spp., also termed horseshoe bats) are particularly relevant natural hosts, as exemplified by the extent of genetically divergent SARSrelated CoVs found in those bats across Asia, Africa and Europe [20, 47, 49]. The direct contacts of humans and bats potentially support the human infection is more frequent than in temperate climates, including consumption of bats as bushmeat and their use for traditional medicine [50, 51]. Other animal species than bats have been implicated as intermediate hosts of and source of infection with HCoVs [52]. For example, alphacoronaviruses were found in camels (Camelus dromedarius) and alpacas (Vicugna pacos) share a common ancestor with HCoV-229E, whereas HCoV-OC43 shares a common ancestor with bovine coronaviruses infecting cattle [53].

Fig. 3.3 Mammals as reservoirs and intermediary hosts of endemic and emerging human coronaviruses. a Animal reservoirs and intermediary hosts of human coronaviruses. b Cladogram of mammalian orders adapted from [48]. Hosts of coronaviruses are depicted by pictograms (teal). Squares depict families susceptible to SARS-CoV (orange), SARS-CoV-2 (purple) and other SARS-related CoVs (grey) [47]

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Fig. 3.4 Mammalian hosts of coronaviruses. a Large diversity of bat-associated SARS-related CoVs in comparison to other hosts. The phylogeny was constructed with 77 SARS-related CoV full-length genomes using a neighbour-joining method with 1,000 bootstrap replicates. Circles at nodes indicate bootstrap values ≥ 75%. Scale bar indicates nucleotide substitutions per site. b High divergence of bat SARS-related CoVs in comparison with viruses infecting pangolin, civet and human hosts. P-distance within SARS-related CoVs in each host [47]

The emerging MERS-CoV is enzootic in camels (mainly C. dromedarius) and causes regular spill-over infections into humans [31]. In the case of SARS-CoV, genetically closely related viruses were found in masked palm civets (Paguma larvata) and raccoon-like dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) sold in a live-animal market in the Guangdong province [54]. The genomic comparisons of SARS-CoV full-genome sequences from human and civets demonstrated in about 99.6% nucleotide identity. High level of the genetic diversity of SARS-related CoVs from in horseshoe bats have been described in China [7]. Masked palm civets were thus likely intermediate hosts, while horseshoe bats were the likely evolutionary origin of SARS-CoV. It has been speculated that mutations in the receptor-binding domain developed in palm civets’ organisms facilitated infection efficiency by increasing the affinity to the human ACE2 receptor [55]. Efforts to identify potential SARS-CoV-2 intermediate hosts have not been successful yet. The origin of the outbreak was associated with the Huanan seafood

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wholesale market in Wuhan during epidemiologic investigations of the first cases [56], which was supported by SARS-CoV-2-positive environmental samples from that market. However, the retrospective analyses indicated that an earlier COVID-19 human case had no exposure to that seafood market [57]. The origins of the pandemic thus remain unclear. The closest relatives to human SARS-CoV-2 known so far are a coronavirus coming from the intermediate horseshoe bat (R. affinis) from China with approximately 96% nucleotide identity, and two sub-lineages of SARS-related CoVs detected in Malayan pangolins (Manis javanica) with 85.5%–92.4% nucleotide identity in whole viral genome level (Fig. 3.4) [41]. Moreover, phylogenetic analyses using a large subgenomic data set of bat coronaviruses from China indicate that alike SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 likely originated in horseshoe bats [58]. The zoonotic origin of infection in humans with civet-associated SARS-CoV strains was likely according to the genetic relatedness of those CoVs. Bat, human and pangolin-associated SARS-CoV-2 strains are not as closely related and the direct ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 strains infecting humans remains to be determined.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from Humans to Animals Human-to-animal transmission events during the COVID-19 pandemic have been documented in several countries, including Hong Kong, Belgium, United States, Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Germany and France [47]. Case reports on cats (Felis catus) living in the same household with COVID-19 patients, revealed that these animals can be infected with SARS-CoV-2, showing either no or mild respiratory illness in cats (CDC 2020, site data). Case report was provided on two separate SARS-CoV-2-infected dogs, whose owners were COVID-19 patients, showed that although both dogs tested positive by RT-PCR and serologic methods for SARS-CoV-2, no apparent clinical signs were observed in the dogs [59]. Other reports on SARS-CoV-2-positive dogs in the Netherlands and the USA indicated that different symptoms can occur in infected dogs, ranging from mild to severe respiratory distress symptoms. These reports indicate, that the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infections on domestic animal health is unclear, could be developed with and without clinical signs. The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Wuhan had the level of 14.7% in cats sampled in 2020 compared with 0.0% in cats sampled in 2019 using a commercial ELISA that detects antibody reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) [60]. The seroprevalense screening performed in Italy demonstrated 3.4% level in dogs and 3.9% in of cats living in SARS-CoV-2-positive households [61]. 14% of tested cats were positive by RT-PCR in Hong Kong [62]. The high seroprevalence and detection rates of SARS-CoV-2 in cats and to some extent in dogs indicate that these animals can be infected with SARS-CoV-2.

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Previous challenge experiments confirmed the susceptibility of ferrets (Mustela putorius), domestic cats and Syrian hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus) to SARS-CoV [63, 64]. Experimental infections of SARS-CoV-2 were produced in ferrets, domestic cats, raccoon dogs, Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus), Syrian hamsters, New Zealand white rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and Northern treeshrews (Tupaia belangeris) [47, 65, 66]. These animals demonstrated the viral RNA shedding in the respiratory tract and to a lesser extent or no shedding in the gastroenteric tract, development of SARS-CoV2-specific antibody responses and histopathological signs of moderate inflammation in infected respiratory tissue [47, 65, 66]. Also it was demonstrated, that SARS-CoV-2 replicated poorly in dogs and cattle, domestic pigs, chicken and ducks [67]. The airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between cats and between hamsters has also been reported [67, 68]. The described circumstances indicate that SARS-CoV2 surveillance strategies should include susceptible animals in close contact to humans to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 in these animals and potential spillback events to humans. Zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 transmission is not associated with domestic animals only. Several other felids’ species were founded positive in the Bronx Zoo in New York, including two Malayan tigers (Panthera tigris jacksoni), two Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) and three African lions (Panthera leo). The possible source of infection was infected zoo staff [69]. SARS-CoV-2-positive minks were detected in 57 mink fur farms in the Netherlands, 25 fur farms in Denmark, six fur farms in the USA and one fur farm in Spain [69]. The infected minks demonstrated mild respiratory distress and interstitial pneumonia on the necropsy [70]. The source of outbreak in minks was linked to the farmers and their family members, who manifested with COVID-19 infection and/or were PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2. Virus transmission from infected minks to humans was proofed by phylogenetic comparison of human- and mink-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequences, which were pretty similar [71]. Zoonotic infections are the common hazards for humans involved in animal welfare management, including veterinarians, zoo and reserve workers, breeders and farmers. Risk assessments should be carried out to identify occupational groups that are disproportionately exposed by SARS-CoV-2-infected animals, as it was managed with squirrel novel bornavirus [72]. The potential transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to different mammalian orders, particularly members of the order Carnivora have been described. Comparing the ACE2 residues involved in SARS-CoV-2 entry in humans with the sequences from different carnivore species revealed only few amino acid changes, which is consistent with SARS-CoV-2 infection in those mammals. SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain is needed to increase infection efficiency in different carnivore hosts [73]. Different coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2) contain furin protease cleavage site in their spike protein, which is responsible for attachment and entry into cells, and affect pathogenesis [74, 75]. MERS-CoV and influenza viruses have

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furin cleavage site as well, that is associated with enhanced transmissibility, virulence enlightenment and host range diversity [75]. Several feline coronavirus (FCoV) strains also have a furin cleavage site in their spike proteins as well. Its mutations indicate the virulenta variant of FCoV [76]. The bat- and pangolin-associated SARS-CoV-2-related coronaviruses do not contain a functional furin cleavage site. Furin-like cleavage site have been occured in other betacoronaviruses such as MERS-CoV, HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-OC43. Frequent recombination and high genetic diversity of bat-associated SARS-related CoVs may support an origin in the bat reservoir [58, 77, 78]. Currently, it is unknown of pre-existence of antibodies against human-endemic CoVs afford cross- protection against or immune enhancement of SARS-CoV-2 infection. No vaccine has been developed to prevent infections with HCoV-229E, HCoVOC43, HCoV-NL63 and HKU1, as these viruses mostly generate mild disease [79]. The translational research of SARS-CoV has been limited to achieve significant antiviral measurement and vaccines’ development [53]. In contrast, for MERS-CoV control several vaccine candidates have been developed and successfully tested, including vectored vaccines based on adenovirus and poxvirus backbones [80, 81]. Further investigation of immune responses for animal coronavirus infections would be required, including aspects of carnivore coronavirus immunity on SARSCoV-2 infections for potential application on SARS-CoV-2 vaccines’ development.

Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread covered over 800 million cats and dogs kept as pets worldwide, as well as large segment of animal farming industry, that raises concerns of domestic and farmed animals in general and carnivores in particular, becoming an epidemiologically relevant animal source for COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 control strategies have to pay attention to the close interaction between humans and companion or farmed animals contributes to human infections. The SARS-CoV-2 mitigation strategies have to take into the account the existing zoonotic transmission, and should be developed in a One Health framework, implementing molecular and serological surveillance as well as epidemiological assessment of SARS-CoV-2 occurrence in domestic and farmed animals alongside humans. COVID-19 demonstrates the failure of biosafety and security systems and safeguards that should prevent a global pandemic of this emergency. According to researchers, zoonotic diseases will continue to cross the animal-human barrier causing the additional risks for emergency. The highly contagious nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus coupled with the geographical location of Wuhan (central China, which is a large Eurasian travel hub), and timing of the year are supplying the fast and uncontrolled global and intensive spread of the virus all over the World.

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The further research is needed to understand the pathogenicity of the virus in companion animals, modes of transmission, incubation period, contagious period, and zoonotic potential. The affected countries’ governments should invest in identifying the hot spots for the origin of zoonotic diseases, enhance diagnostic capabilities, and rapid containment measures at local, regional, and national levels. Once the mode of transmission is identified, contact tracking systems should be in place to identify and curtail the further spread of the infection. The threats of emerging infectious diseases requires investing the combined efforts internationally where a single discipline or nation cannot handle the burden alone. There should also be a mechanism for dissemination of information, data sharing, and transparency among all countries when an outbreak happens. To face the future outbreaks and address human-animal-environmental interactions, there is a dire need for implementing multidisciplinary One Health approach with international governmental cooperation.

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Chapter 4

SARS-CoV-2 in Acute Respiratory Infection Situation in Russia in Spring–Summer 2020 Konstantin S. Sharov

Abstract In the current Chapter, we describe our results of our studying SARSCoV-2 spread in Russia and comparison of its epidemiology with other viruses of acute respiratory panel in January-June 2020. 12,082 persons already proven positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Group 1) and 7,864 + 4,458 (Group 2) persons with respiratory suspicions were investigated. In Russia, in January-June 2020, the number of deaths of pneumonia of different non-COVID-19-related aetiology can be estimated as some 16,000 people (Rosstat data). Current number of deaths with COVID-19 diagnosed is twice less. It is considerable, but proper steps in surveillance, prevention, diagnosis and treatment may effectively curb it. In January-June 2019, there were 15,206 fatalities of pneumonia, and in 2012–2016 approximately 16,000–28,000 humans. Therefore, in Russia the current risk of contagiousness and fatality associated with SARSCoV-2 is statistically comparable with the risk from other human coronaviruses and many other acute respiratory viral pathogens that already became seasonal, and less than that of pneumonia of different aetiology. It does not mean, however, that we may relax, as this emerging pathogen turned out to be less dangerous than we deemed several months ago. A search for new therapeutics against SARS-CoV-2 must continue along with development and improvement of new medical vaccines.

Introduction Background In their paper “SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data” of Roussel et al. [1], the authors noted that “systematic studies of other coronaviruses (but not yet for SARS-CoV-2) have found that the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is equal to or even higher than the percentage of symptomatic patients. The same data for SARS-CoV-2 may K. S. Sharov (B) Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 26 Vavilov St, Moscow 119334, Russia e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_4

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soon be available, which will further reduce the relative risk associated with this specific pathology.” As corona situation evolves, it becomes clear that, just like for other coronaviruses and many other acute respiratory infection (ARI) viruses, SARSCoV-2 asymptomatic carriers constitute a considerable proportion of population, especially in children and adolescents groups [2–7]. The presence of such substantial proportion of asymptomatic carriers may evidence not only an increased risk of hidden contagiousness [8], but, more importantly, not so great hazard of SARSCoV-2 to population, as it was thought by world community at the beginning of the outbreak [9, 10]. The real risk of SARS-CoV-2 to population, as Jean-Marc Rolain and Po-Ren Hsueh with their research teams specified, may be assessed by studying (1) the proportion of asymptomatic patients; (2) COVID-19 clinical manifestation for different groups of population; (3) mortality; and comparing these indicators with other ARI viruses that appear in population mainly on a seasonal basis [11]. Now, in 2021, when the first fears connected with a new coronavirus pathogen have already subsided, scientific groups and medical care sector must evaluate real level of threat associated with COVID-19, not the imaginary horrors boosted by media [1, 12– 14], since “fear could have a larger impact than the virus itself” [1]. In Russia, within official programme of screening population for SARS-CoV-2, 584,680 respiratory samples were found to be positive with around 17 million tests made (11.64% of Russian population already tested) at the national level, as of 20 June 2020.

Aim In the current Chapter, we are providing the time slice information (as of 20 June 2020) about the number of asymptomatic patients, comorbidities, mortality rate associated with SARS-CoV-2, patients with different coronaviruses and ARI viruses, shifts in ARI panel composition from March to June 2020, age breakdown of COVID-19 clinical course, and viral co-infections in COVID-19 patients/carriers in Russia.

Materials and Methods Objects We investigated samplings and clinical information on people with respiratory suspicions from twelve Russian hospitals transformed to COVID-19 infirmaries, twenty-two outpatients’ clinics and ambulance centres, and eight non-commercial test labs and medical centres (Moscow, Moscow region, St Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Murmansk, Syktyvkar, Krasnoyarsk, and Vladivostok). Sampling set 1. 7,864 samples of respiratory-suspected persons were analysed by molecular biology

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for different ARI viral aetiological agents in time interval 1 and 4,458 additional samples in time interval 2. Clinical data were analysed along with molecular biological testing. Sampling set 2. 12,082 clinical cases of patients already positively tested for SARS-CoV-2 by various laboratories, and treated both at home and in hospitals, were investigated. Only clinical information was studied for this set. Age, gender, results of clinical blood/urine tests, symptomatic picture and outcome were known.

Time Intervals The work has been carried out in two time intervals: (1) since 2 March to 30 April 2020; and (2) since 5 May to 20 June 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic is a rapidly changing situation with important alterations fixed almost on a weekly, sometimes daily basis. The data obtained during time interval 2 enabled us to consider and report new dimensions of SARS-CoV-2 spread in Russian population.

Software OriginLab Origin 8.1 was used for statistical calculations and visualisation.

Ethical Guidelines Reporting of the study conforms to broad EQUATOR [15] and STROBE-NI cohort studies [16] guidelines.

Results and Discussion Different ARI Viruses As the research teams from Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille mentioned, there are four coronaviruses in circulation with fatality rates comparable to SARSCoV-2 [1, 17]. As of 19 February 2020, these teams tested 4,084 + 5,080 samples and revealed the presence of two alpha- and two beta- common seasonal human coronaviruses in the samples, and no samples with SARS-CoV-2 were present [17]. In a composite sampling made up of 7,864 samples of respiratory-suspected persons from eight Russian cities/regions, tested in time interval 1 (sampling set

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Fig. 4.1 Results of testing the respiratory samples for acute respiratory infection (ARI) panel in time period 1. 7,864 persons of age up to 78 years were tested

1), we revealed the presence of several human coronaviruses and other ARI viruses (Fig. 4.1). In 5,436 samples (69.13%) different viral aetiological agents were detected. In 4,602 cases (84.66%) they were identified with known serotypes and strains. SARSCoV-2 positive persons comprised only 5.37%, with 56.68% of them being asymptomatic. The results of additional testing 4,458 respiratory samples taken in time interval 2 are presented in Fig. 4.2. Comparison of asymptomatic carriers proportion for all ARI viruses identified, is presented in Fig. 4.3. As we see, SARS-CoV-2 does not stand apart of the ARI group. For time interval 2, in 2,533 cases viral aetiological agents were detected, in 1,822 cases they were identified with known serotypes and strains. Time period 1 coincided with seasonal ARI surge (spring 2020), while during time period 2 there was seasonal ARI fade (summer 2020). That may be elucidated by drastic contraction of infection cases for influenzas, parainfluenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus and metapneumoviruses that usually constitute the bulk of ARI in Russia every year. Infection cases caused by different seasonal coronaviruses (229E, ML63, HKU1) diminished on transition from time interval 1 to time interval 2, but not so sharply. Number of OC43 cases increased, even in absolute values. SARS-CoV-2 accounted for 11.42% of all identified aetiological agents for time interval 2.

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Fig. 4.2 Results of testing the respiratory samples for acute respiratory infection (ARI) panel in time period 2. 4,458 persons of age up to 96 years were tested

Fig. 4.3 Percentage of samples with different ARI viruses corresponding to asymptomatic carriers for time intervals 1 and 2

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Fig. 4.4 Change of proportion in ARI panel for different viral aetiological agents with transition from time period 1 to time period 2

The change of different viruses proportion in ARI group studied, with transition from time period 1 to time period 2, is provided in Fig. 4.4. This factor was calculated as follows: Change =

proportion of a virus in time int. 2 − proportion of a virus in time int. 1 proportion of a virus in time int. 1 × 100%

We see that the rise in SARS-CoV-2 part in the entire ARI viral panel is observable, but not dramatic. OC43 proportion increased much more (probably, due to a local surge in the Far East Russian regions). SARS-CoV-2 increase is comparable with increase of enteroviruses, echo- and parechoviruses in ARI viral panel, and these viruses are far from causing any epidemic in Russia nowadays. This finding may indicate that SARS-CoV-2 contagiousness is not very high (its basic reproduction number is not very large for any environment); therefore, the virus spread is limited. Along with the observation that the part of SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic carriers augmented from time interval 1 to time interval 2, viz. from 56.68% to 70.67% (Figs. 4.1 and 4.2), it may be an evidence that population is already gradually adapting to the new pathogen.

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Viral Co-infections We detected the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to make viral co-infections with different ARI viruses. Around one quarter of all 455 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from sampling set 1 contained another viral RNAs or DNAs (Fig. 4.5). Rhinoviruses accounted for the largest co-infection part (7.91% of samples tested positive for SARS-CoV-2); respiratory syncytial virus 7.03%; adenoviruses 4.84%; metapneumoviruses 3.29%; parainfluenza viruses 2.42%; enterovirus D68 1.10% and other viruses (entero-, echo-, parecho-) less than 1%. Respiratory viral co-infections are not something extraordinary or novel. The ability of many human respiratory viruses to engage in co-infections is known [18]. For SARS-CoV-2, some cases of viral co-infections have been already recently reported [19, 20]. In our research, we found that viral co-infection cases with SARSCoV-2 were predominantly related to minor patients/carriers (on or below 17 years old) and adult patients up to 45 years old, with decay after this age. That may indicate a possible connection with the most active period of life. Anyway, cases of respiratory viral co-infections with SARS-CoV-2 were not proven to be related to immune system dysfunction. It is interesting that no co-infections of SARS-CoV-2 with another coronaviruses or influenza viruses were detected. A possible explanation may consist in their similar

Fig. 4.5 Viral co-infections detected for 455 samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 (time intervals 1 and 2 combined together)

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stereometric configuration (size, conformation of envelope proteins) and/or molecular mechanisms of attachment to cellular surface in a human organism, that may result in their competitive exclusion. The presence of ACE2 receptor may also play a role here [13]. Of 455 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples, no triple viral co-infections were revealed.

Mortality The mortality registered for sampling sets 1 and 2 combined, is presented in Fig. 4.6, separately for time intervals 1 and 2. The comparison with statistics collected for Russia in 2012–2020 period, demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 cannot be regarded exceptionally “deadly,” as, say, Ebola haemorrhagic fever or H5N1 highly pathogenic

Fig. 4.6 Mortality and clinical course for COVID-19 patients and patients with different ARI viruses (time interval 1: sampling sets 1 and 2 combined; time interval 2: only sampling set 1)

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“bird” flu, i.e. its case fatality rate is not high, despite what was initially thought of it in January-February 2020. As we can see in Fig. 4.6, many ARI viruses bring on similar or greater fatality rates. Most of them have case fatality rates very close to 1 per cent or between 1 and 2 per cent. SARS-CoV-2 main danger remains to be associated with its free spread around the world in the situation of truly globalised humanity without mental, religious, racial, ethnic, national, cultural or any other borders, the world with enormous tourist and supply chain torrents [21]. It is this persistent worldwide spread of the virus that causes many lethal cases, not its putative “deadliness.” The current official COVID-19 case fatality rate for Russia is 1.4–1.5% [22]. Fatality age breakdown (official data for the end of April 2020): 0.6% (18–29 years); 14.2% (30–49); 19.6% (50–64); 65.6% (65+) [22]. In sampling sets 1 and 2 combined, median case fatality rate was 0.6%. In any case, the careful analysis of clinical information shows that the overwhelming majority of deaths were cases with comorbidities. Of 477 death cases (sampling set 1) available for our analysis, 442 cases (92.6%) were represented by patients with at least one comorbidity. The most common comorbidities: metabolism disorders, including diabetes, obesity, gout and hormonal impairments etc. (84%); cardiovascular diseases, including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, cardiac decompensation, stenocardia, coronary artery disease etc. (82%); bad habits following, including chronic alcoholism, constant smoking and narcotic addiction (21%); internal organ diseases, including functional impairments, such as COPD, asthma, kidney and liver diseases (18%); neurological diseases (15%), oncology (10%); immune system disorders (3%).

Clinical Manifestations in Sampling Set 2 On average, 54.5% of COVID-19 patients from sampling set 2, and treated both at home and in hospitals, exhibited no symptoms (time interval 1). 28.6% showed mild symptoms (slight cough, mild pyrexia up to 37.5 °C, fatigue, mild upper respiratory tract disease, moderate myalgia, pharyngitis, stuffiness in nose, catarrhal inflammation). 11.0% demonstrated more serious and pronounced symptoms (bronchitis, obliterative bronchiolitis, wheezing, shortness of breath, rapid breathing with cracklings, moderate to strong dry/humid cough, pyrexia up to 38.3 °C). But only 5.9% of patients exhibited severe symptoms (viral or bacterial pneumonia of different severity, pyrexia up to 40.1 °C with median 38.7 °C). Critical patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome and respiratory failure that required ICU use, made up no more than 1.4% of all persons in the set. The number of severe patients was thrice as less in comparison with the WHO official predictions. The number of hospital critical patients that required oxygenating ICU treatment, was almost ten times less than predicted by the WHO. Age breakdown of symptomatic clinical course is given in Fig. 4.7, for sampling sets 1 and 2 combined (12,537 people). The number of asymptomatic patients

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Fig. 4.7 Age breakdown of symptomatic course of SARS-CoV-2 patients/carriers (time intervals 1 and 2 combined; sampling sets 1 and 2 combined)

decreases with age, while number of cases with serious manifestations rises with age.

Conclusions In Russia, in January-June 2020 (during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic), the number of deaths of pneumonia can be estimated as some 16,000 people (Rosstat data). Current number of deaths with COVID-19 diagnosed is twice less. It is considerable, but proper steps in surveillance, prevention, diagnosis and treatment may effectively curb it. In January-June 2019, there were 15,206 fatalities of pneumonia, and in 2012–2016 approximately 16,000–28,000 humans. Therefore, in Russia the current risk of contagiousness and fatality associated with SARS-CoV-2 is statistically comparable with the risk from other human coronaviruses and many other ARI viral pathogens that already became seasonal, and less than that of pneumonia of different aetiology. It does not mean, however, that we may relax, as this emerging pathogen turned out to be less dangerous than we deemed several months ago, when it has just appeared. A search for new therapeutics must continue along with developing and refining vaccines. Acknowledgements We would like to thank Nikolay Belousov, Polina Chernova, Maria Dolgova, Leonid Gerasimov, Anna Gorenintseva, Elizaveta Ilyina, Pavel Ivanov, Tatiana Kartseva, Ekaterina Koshkina, Mikhail Marushkevich, Sofia Petrova, Alexandra Sheveleva, Alexander Sokolov,

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Anastasia Sonina, Alexei Volodin, Vadim Zhuravlyov (Russia) for their technical and informational support in working with samplings and data sets, for providing the clinical data vital for the analysis.

References 1. Roussel Y, Giraud-Gatineau A, Jimeno MT et al (2020) SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data. Int J Antimicrob Agents:105947. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105947 2. Lee PI, Hu YL, Chen PY et al (2020) Are children less susceptible to COVID-19? J Microbiol Immunol Infect 53(3):371–372. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmii.2020.02.011 3. Jean SS, Lee PI, Hsueh PR (2020) Treatment options for COVID-19: the reality and challenges. J Microbiol Immunol Infect 53(3):436–443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmii.2020.03.034 4. Duan YN, Zhu YQ, Tang LL et al (2020) CT features of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID19) in children. Eur Radiol 14:1–7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00330-020-06860-3 5. Mehta NS, Mytton OT, Mullins EWS et al (2020) SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): What do we know about children? a systematic review. Clin Infect Dis:ciaa556. https://doi.org/10.1093/ cid/ciaa556 6. Chen F, Fu D, Yang Q et al (2020) Low transmission risk of 9 asymptomatic carriers tested positive for both SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid and serum IgG. J Infect S0163–4453(20):30416– 30423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.06.034 7. Park SW, Cornforth DM, Dushoff J et al (2020) The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak. Epidemics 31: https://doi. org/10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100392 8. Gao M, Yang L, Chen X et al (2020) A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers. Respir Med 169: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2020.106026 9. Sassin W (2019) Deja Vue? Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020210216. https://doi. org/10.5281/zenodo.3733442, https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.2.020210216 10. Sassin W (2019) De-creation of creation, or a new level of culture in the development of homo. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2:020510203. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.373 2508, https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.2.020510203 11. Ko WC, Rolain JM, Lee NY et al (2020) Arguments in favour of remdesivir for treating SARSCoV-2 infections. Int J Antimicrob Agents 55(4): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020. 105933 12. Sharov KS (2020) Adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 under stress: role of distorted information. Eur J Clin Invest:e13294. https://doi.org/10.1111/eci.13294 13. Devaux CA, Rolain JM, Raoult D (2020) ACE2 receptor polymorphism: Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, hypertension, multi-organ failure, and COVID-19 disease outcome. J Microbiol Immunol Infect 53(3):425–435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmii.2020.04.015 14. Raoult D, Hsueh PR, Stefani S, Rolain JM (2020) COVID-19 therapeutic and prevention. Int J Antimicrob Agents 55(4): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105937 15. Simera I, Moher D, Hoey J et al (2010) A catalogue of reporting guidelines for health research. Eur J Clin Invest 40(1):35–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2362.2009.02234.x 16. Fitchett EJA, Seale AC, Vergnano S et al (2016) Strengthening the reporting of observational studies in epidemiology for newborn infection (STROBE-NI): an extension of the STROBE statement for neonatal infection research. Lancet Infect Dis 16(10):e202–e213. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30082-2 17. Colson P, La Scola B, Esteves-Vieira V et al (2020) Letter to the editor: plenty of coronaviruses but no SARS-CoV-2. Euro Surveill 25(8):2000171. https://doi.org/10.2807/15607917.es.2020.25.8.2000171

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18. Nicholson A, Shah CM, Ogawa VA (eds) (2019) Exploring lessons learned from a century of outbreaks: readiness for 2030. National Academies Press, Washington, DC 19. Touzard-Romo F, Tapé C, Lonks JR (2020) Co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and human metapneumovirus. R I Med J 103(2):75–76. http://www.rimed.org/rimedicaljournal/2020/03/202003-75-touzard-romo.pdf 20. Kim D, Quinn J, Pinsky B et al (2020) Rates of co-infection between SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens. JAMA 323(20):2085–2086. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6266 21. Donskikh OA (2019) Horror zivilisationis, or the horror of subjectivity. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020110205. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733791, https://hdl.handle. net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.2.020110205 22. Stopcoronavirus (2020) Official website of the Russian official headquarters on control and monitoring of coronavirus situation. https://xn--80aesfpebagmfblc0a.xn--p1ai. Accessed 21 June 2020

Part II

Modelling Epidemiological Behaviour of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Communities

Chapter 5

What Social Policy Is Better: Lockdowns or Borders Closings During SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic? Olga V. Valba, Vladik A. Avetisov, Alexander S. Gorsky, and Sergei K. Nechaev Abstract Currently, two main social policies are used by different governments to prevent the uncontrolled spreading of COVID-19, lockdowns, or “self-isolation” and borders closings. In both cases, the aim of clustering population is to localise the illness propagation in closed communities and prevent it from spread through the entire human network. In the Chapter, we discuss which mechanism better blocks the spread of the epidemic: self-quarantine in local communities induced by increasing the weights of small cliques in the human network or sharp clustering via closing of borders between arbitrary parts of the human network. In an ideal situation, when all self-isolated communities are absolutely disconnected from each other, and when the border crossings between cities and countries are totally prohibited, both protocols are equally efficient and definitely inhibit disease expansion. However, in reality, it is impossible to isolate people’s communities completely and some fraction of O. V. Valba Department of Applied Mathematics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Federal Research Centre of Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 34 Tallinskaya St., Moscow 101000, Russia e-mail: [email protected] V. A. Avetisov Federal Research Centre of Chemical Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 4 Kosygin St., Moscow 119991, Russia e-mail: [email protected] A. S. Gorsky Institute of Information Transmission Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, 19 bld 1 Bolshoy Karetny lane, Moscow 127051, Russia Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow 141701, Russia A. S. Gorsky e-mail: [email protected] S. K. Nechaev (B) Interdisciplinary Scientific Centre Poncelet, CNRS IRL 2615, 11 Bolshoy Vlasyevskiy Pereulok, Moscow 119002, Russia e-mail: [email protected] Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 119991, Russia © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_5

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cross-community connections is always present. In that case, we claim that the human network clustering obtained by self-isolation better prevents the spread of the epidemic than the instant separation of the network into the clusters.

Introduction It is known [1] that the epidemic spreading on a net- work is sensitive to two generic features: clustering and adaptivity [2–5], where under the adaptivity typically it is understood the self-consistent network rewiring that minimizes the impact of the disease on the human population. Both, the clustering and the adaptivity, have a strong effect on epidemic threshold, peak value and typical distribution time. Our work is inspired by the pandemic distribution of COVID-19 and we are focused on a some mechanisms of a network clustering, which have an essential influence on the disease propagation. Specifically, we discuss effects of adaptive network rewiring. We are encouraged by an observation made in [6] concerning the localisation of one-body excitations on network clusters obtained in a specific evolutionary way. More recently, similar results have been derived for networks with various patterns of dynamically induced clustering [7–9]. In the current Chapter, we analyse and compare numerically the epidemic spreading on adaptively rewired and instantly clustered connected networks. In [6] we have considered spectral properties of two types of constrained random Erd˝os-Rényi networks in the clustered phase: (i) (ii)

the so-called “e-networks,” obtained by the evolutionary Metropolis maximisation of small cliques of connected nodes, and the so-called “i-networks”, instantly prepared clustered graphs having the same geometrical properties as “e-networks,” but which are created “ad hoc” without any evolutionary selection.

In e-networks, which are non-ergodic, excitations are mostly localised on clusters and weakly spread through the entire network. However the entire network is connected and there is a small, though finite, density of inter-cluster links which prevents of the complete localisation. To the contrary, i-networks are ergodic and they serve as a particular example of a “stochastic block model” [10, 11]. Being geometrically very similar to e-networks, the i-networks nevertheless are less effective in blocking the spreading of excitations. As we show below, the distinction between e- and i-networks deals with different statistics of inter-cluster links. In our work we report results of simulations of the standard SIR model on clustered eand i-networks. The SIR model (described in section ‘Numerical Simulation of SIR Model’) is the simplest and widely used model of disease transmission from human to human. The chapter is organised as follows. In section ‘Definitions and Networks Generation’ we formulate the model of adaptive clustering. In section ‘Evolutionary Clustering and Scale-Free Distribution in e-Networks’ we argue that our model has a

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scale-free degree distribution providing explanation of a very specific triangular shape of the spectral density of clustered e-networks observed in [12]. In section ‘Numerical Simulation of SIR Model’ we describe results of simulations of SIR model on Erd˝os-Rényi (ER), e- and i-networks. In Discussion we speculate about possible interpretation of self-isolation (SI) in communities as formation of adaptively clustered e-networks, frontiers closing (FC)—as formation of i-networks, and demonstrate that SI prohibits the epidemic spread more efficient than FC.

Definitions and Networks Generation The main object of our consideration is the dynamically evolving constrained ER network. The N-node ER network is a topological graph of N vertices constructed by random linking with the probability p any pair of points from a set of N arbitrary points. The probability, P(k), to find a vertex in the ER network, linked with other k vertices, is Poissonian with the mean value ‹k› = Np. Another well-studied class of random networks are the so-called scale-free networks, for which the vertex degree distribution, P(k) ∼ k η , has a power-law tail with a critical exponent η < 0 (typically η < −2). The overwhelming majority of natural networks is scale-free, and the network of distribution of COVID-19 is not an exception [13]. Natural networks, being complex self-organised objects, evolve in time trying to adapt themselves to imposed external conditions. We distinguish two classes of dynamic ER networks: “unconstrained” (without the vertex degree conservation during the network evolution) and “constrained” (with preservation of vertex degrees in all nodes under the network rewiring). In unconstrained ER networks one can remove any link from one place of the graph and insert it into any other place. To the contrary, in constrained ER networks, the realisation of a rewiring is more complex and involves simultaneous replacement at least two bonds. Speaking more practically, consider a network of human social relations, where each graph vertex represents a particular agent. It seems reasonable to assume that for each agent, the number of social connections (the particular vertex degree in a social network) is conserved. The number of connections may vary from one agent to the other one; however, for each human, it is supposed to be fixed and unchanged during the social network evolution. Such a supposition seems rather natural since the number of relations per one individual rapidly increases, saturates, and then remains approximately conserved during the lifetime, being a typical social habit of a human. Returning to the network, we proceed with the following rewiring setup which conserves all vertex degrees. We take a random ER N-vertex graph without double connections as an initial state of a network. Then, we randomly select a pair of arbitrary links, say, (i, j) between vertices i and j and (k, l) between k and l, and reconnect them, getting new links (i, k) and (j, l). Such reconnections conserve the vertex degree [14] but allow for bond redistribution and do not prohibit topological changes in the entire network. In the context of phase transitions in social networks, such a dynamic model has been discussed in Ref. [12].

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The following question has been addressed in Ref. [13]. Suppose that we rewire links in the constrained RE network (CERN) under the condition that at each step of rewiring we try to maximise the number of small cliques (small complete subgraphs of few links). What would be the equilibrium structure of the entire network? In mathematical terms, this question reads as follows. We assign the energy, μ, to each simplest clique (closed triad of bonds) and denote by n the number of such triads in the network. The partition function of the network can be written as Z (μ) =

 

e−μn 

(5.1)

{states}

where prime in (5.1) means that the summation runs over all possible configurations of links (“states”), under the condition of fixed degrees {ν 1 , …, νN } in all network vertices. To simulate the rewiring process, one applies the standard Metropolis algorithm with the following rules: (i) (ii)

if under the reconnection the number of closed triads is increasing, a move (rewiring) is accepted, and if the number of closed triads is decreasing by n , or remains unchanged, a move is accepted with the probability e−μ n .

The Metropolis algorithm runs repeatedly for a large set of randomly chosen pairs of links, until it converges. In Ref. [15], it was proven that the algorithm converges to the Gibbs measure eμN  in the equilibrium ensemble of random undirected ER networks with fixed vertex degrees. In Ref. [13], it has been shown that given the bond formation probability p, in the initial graph, the evolving network splits into the maximally possible number of clusters, N cl :      N 1  Ncl = (5.2) ≈  N p + 1 N 1 p where [x] means the integer part of x and the denominator Np + 1 defines the minimal size of formed cliques. The asymptotic limit ∼[p−1 ] at N → ∞ in (5.2) is independent of the particular set of vertex degrees, {ν 1 , …, νN }. According to Ref. [16], clustering of evolving constrained ER network occurs upon the triad maximisation, as a first-order phase transition with increase of the control parameter μ, the chemical potential of the triads. To have some insight about topological network structure in course of the evolution, we reproduce in Fig. 5.1 typical adjacency matrices at three sequential stages of a particular network rearrangement: The initial adjacency matrix of the CERN is shown in Fig. 5.1a, its snapshot at the intermediate stage of rewiring upon triad maximization is depicted in Fig. 5.1b, while the final stage of the network adjacency matrix after the first-order clustering transition is represented in Fig. 5.1c; see Ref. [13] for details.

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Fig. 5.1 A few typical samples of intermediate stages of a network evolution at fixed vertex degree upon the maximisation of triads. Network has N = 750 vertices and the connection probability at the preparation is p = 0.08

To visualise the evolution, we enumerate vertices at the preparation condition in arbitrary order and run the Metropolis stochastic dynamics. When the system is equilibrated and clusters are formed, we re-enumerate vertices according to their belongings to clusters. Then we restore corresponding dynamic pathways back to the initial configuration. We compare the evolutionary grown clustered e-network, obtained by the maximisation of triangles (triadic motifs), with another mechanism of clustered i-network formation. The i-network is instantly formed and is a particular example of a stochastic block random graph [10, 11]. To be precise, the i-network is constructed by the following procedure. First, we construct the N-vertex clustered e-network, in which we detect all clusters {J} and define the average link probabilities as pJ in inside each cluster J and pout between clusters. Then, we take a set of N points, split the set in groups as in the e-network, and connect points in these groups with the probability pJ in . In such a way, we generate a set {J  } of new clusters which mimic clusters of enetworks. Finally, we randomly connect vertices belonging to different clusters from the set {J  } with the probability pout borrowed from the average connection probability between clusters in the e-network. Such an instantly created i-network mimics the e-network, since the i-network has the same linking probability and community structure as the evolutionary grown e-network. In Fig. 5.2a, we have shown the initial ER random network, from which the e-network, shown in Fig. 5.2b, and i-network, shown in Fig. 5.2c, are constructed according to the procedure described above. Let us emphasise that the i-network has no history, knows nothing about the evolution, has no dependence on μ, and has no vertex degree conservation. However, the visual inspection of Fig. 5.2a, c does not allow us to distinguish adjacency matrices of eand i-networks. Besides, the propagation of excitation on e- and i-networks behaves very differently. To summarise, we have ensembles of two kinds of networks: (i)

evolutionary grown e-networks which have memory about the history of their creation and

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Fig. 5.2 Examples of typical adjacency matrices for a ER random network, b e-networks evolutionary grown by triangle maximisation from the network in panel a, and c i-networks, which have N = 750 vertices and are created with the link probability p = 0.08. By visual inspection, it is almost impossible to distinguish the adjacency matrices of e- and i-networks

(ii)

instantly ad hoc formed i-networks.

Projecting mechanisms of construction of e- and i-networks onto the human society, it seems plausible. (1)

(2)

to identify clustered e-networks obtained by a preferential arrangement of network vertices in small cliques with the self-isolation (SI) of humans in small communities and to identify instantly created i-networks with the splitting of entire human network into the collection of weakly connected clusters obtained by frontier (border) closing (FC).

For comparison, we also consider random ER networks with the same vertex degree distribution, which are the source of our evolutionary algorithm.

Evolutionary Clustering and Scale-Free Distribution in e-Networks In Ref. [13], we have pointed out some puzzling property of the spectral density (eigenvalue distribution) of evolutionary clustered networks. The spectrum above clustering transition has demonstrated the two-band structure in which the first (main) band was naturally attributed to the perturbative excitations inside clusters, while the second nonperturbative band emerged from the eigenvalues tunnelling from the first zone aside. It was found numerically that the spectral density in the perturbative band has a triangular shape typical of the scale-free networks [17, 18]. Such a result looks surprising since a clustered network has emerged from an ER graph with a binomial degree distribution in which the vertex degree is conserved during the network

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Fig. 5.3 The outer cluster degree distribution ρ(k) in log–log scale for e-networks (black squares), i-networks (red circles), and random regular graphs (blue triangles). Results are obtained for 100 realisations of networks with N = 750 nodes and the linking probability p = 0.08. The solid line shows the slope η = −1.12 for the power law ρ(k) = k η

evolution (rewiring), naively thinking there is no place for a clustered network to be scale-free. The resolution of that puzzle turns out to be as follows. In the evolutionarily grown clustered network, we have to consider separately the distributions of internal (inside cluster) and external (between clusters) vertex degrees. Let us consider a vertex i belonging to the cluster J of a clustered e-network, and define the “outer degree” for a vertex i as the number of links, connecting i to vertices of clusters others than J. In Fig. 5.3, we have plotted the outer vertex degree distribution, ρ(k), of cluster nodes for three types of networks: e-networks (black squares), i-networks (red circles), and random regular graph (RRG) e-networks (blue triangles). The simulations show that the e-networks demonstrate the power-law scaling ρ(k) ∼ k η

(5.3)

with a surprisingly small value of η. The line of the best fit in Fig. 5.3 for the outer vertex degree distribution of enetworks has the slope η = −1.12. In contrast, the inner vertex degree demonstrates the binomial distribution modified by the long tail at small degrees.1 Instantly created i-networks (red circles) do not possess such a scale-free behaviour for outer vertex degrees. 1

Outer vertices we understand as nodes connected by cross-cluster (outer) links, while inner vertices are nodes connected by in-cluster (inner) links. These notations should not be confused with outer and inner links in directed networks.

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It is eligible to ask which property of an e-network is responsible for the scalefree distribution. To this aim, we consider the e-networks constructed on the basis of RRG, which possess similar cluster structures. The outer vertex degree distribution of RRG e-networks, shown by blue triangles in Fig. 5.3, does not demonstrate the scale-free behaviour; however, the distribution itself seems to be closer to the one of e-networks rather than of i-networks. Thus, we have solid arguments to believe that the scale-free behaviour of e-networks is induced by the disorder in the vertex degree distribution of the parent constrained ER network. The scale-free dependence (5.3) is fully consistent with our former investigations [6, 13] of spectral statistics of evolutionary grown clustered networks. It has been shown in Ref. [13] that the enveloping shape of the main band in the spectral density of the adjacency matrix is changing with increasing of μ from the semicircle (in the initial ER network below μcr ) to the triangle (in the clustered network above μcr ), where μc is the first-order transition point. According to our observation, the triangular shape of the spectral density in the main band should be attributed mainly to the scale-free property of intercluster excitations of e-networks. The critical exponent η is small (−2 < η < −1), meaning that the average vertex degree distribution diverges. General conditions to have η > −2 in the scale-free networks with fixed number of nodes is discussed in Refs. [19, 20]. A nontrivial rewiring procedure for generating networks with η > −2 has been proposed in Ref. [19]. Although the algorithm of Ref. [19] looks sophisticated, the ideas behind its construction are in good agreement with our simple generation procedure of the scale-free network with −2 < η < −1. Namely, to get η > −2 one should carefully tune the combination of local and global constraints. One more rewiring procedure was suggested in Ref. [20] for getting η = −1. Fortunately, our simple algorithm dealing with maximisation of triads in constrained ER network brings the system automatically in the regime where the generation of a scale-free subnetwork with −2 < η < −1 occurs. To summarise, the main result of this section consists in providing a simple rewiring mechanism for the fabrication of scale-free distribution in constrained ER networks.

Numerical Simulation of SIR Model Epidemic models classify individual agents (humans) based on the stage of disease affecting them. The simplest classification scheme assumes that an agent can be in one of three states (compartments): (a) (b) (c)

susceptible (S) for healthy agents having not yet contacted the pathogen, infectious (I) for contagious agents who have contacted the pathogen and can infect others, and recovered (R) for recovered (or immune) agents.

The distribution of disease on some target space is considered in the frameworks of transformations among susceptible, infectious, and recovered agents and is known

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as the SIR model [21]. The standard dynamics of the SIR model reads as follows: β

→ I + I, S+I − γ

I − →R

(5.4)

The model has two adjustable parameters, (β, γ ). These parameters set transition rates β for susceptible nodes to become infected from infected neighbours and γ for infected nodes to recover. We have run the SIR model on three types of graphs: random ER network, enetwork, and i-network, and the respective adjacency matrices are shown in Fig. 5.2. The results of our simulations are depicted in Fig. 5.4, where we have plotted the density of infected agents, f i , versus time t. To be able to compare distributions, we took networks from different classes (random ER, e-networks, and i-networks) with the identical sets of parameters, namely with the number of nodes N = 750 and the link probability p = 0.08. The black dotted, blue dashed, and red solid lines in Fig. 5.4 show the dependencies f i (t) for random ER networks, i-networks, and e-networks, respectively. The shadowed regions represent the standard deviations from the curves, averaged over n = 1000 simulations for each type of network. The parameters β and γ are chosen as follows: β = 0.05 and γ = 0.03.

Fig. 5.4 The fraction of infected nodes in time for ER networks, i-networks, and e-networks. Results are obtained for the SIR dynamics with transmission rate β = 0.05 and recovery rate γ = 0.03 for n = 1000 simulation runs on each networks. Shadowed regions designate the confidence range of the dependence f i (t) for a network type

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Analysing distributions in Fig. 5.4, we see two important features of the epidemic spread described by the SIR model on different network types. Apart from the maximal distribution on the nonclustered ER network (which is our reference state), the interesting features demonstrate e-networks and i-networks. It turns out that clustering actually weakens the epidemic spread, but the details are very sensitive to the way the clustered network is created. The evolutionary grown e-networks demonstrate better suppression of the epidemic spread than instantly created i-networks for the same set of parameters. Meanwhile, the peak of the distribution of infected agents on e-networks is shifted to later times compared to both ER and i-networks.

Results and Discussion Here we briefly speculate about the provocative title of our work in the context of selecting between two different protocols of suppressing the epidemic proliferation. Currently, two main mechanisms of human population network clustering are used by different countries to prevent the uncontrolled spreading of COVID-19. Tentatively, these mechanisms could be named self-isolation (SI) and frontiers closing (FC). In both cases, the aim of clustering is to localise the illness propagation in a closed community and prevent it from spread through the entire human network. Specifically, we are interested in the question of which mechanism better blocks the spread of the epidemic: self-quarantine in local communities induced by increasing the weights of small cliques in the human network or sharp clustering via closing of borders between arbitrary parts of the human network. In an ideal situation, when all self-isolated communities are absolutely disconnected from each other, and when the border crossings between cities and countries are totally prohibited, both protocols are equally efficient and definitely inhibit disease expansion. However, in reality, it is impossible to isolate communities completely and some fraction of cross-community connections is always present. In that case, we claim that the human network clustering obtained by self-isolation better prevents the spread of the epidemic than the instant separation of the network into the clusters. Readers are invited to make their own judgment of whether this speculation seems plausible in the context of the human society and to what extent. We have demonstrated that a network which is evolutionarily grown from a randomly generated ER graph with the fixed vertex degree under the condition of maximising small cliques (triadic motifs) gets clustered into community clusters and the number of such communities depends on the linking probability p in the initial graph [see Eq. (5.2)]. We have also verified numerically that similar adaptive clustering occurs when triadic motifs are replaced by complete 4-cliques. Running SIR model on e-networks and in parallel on i-networks (which mimic clustered structure of e-networks but are memory-less), we see from Fig. 5.4 that e-networks prevent better spread of the epidemic than i-networks (the maximum of infected agents is lower for e-networks), while the maximum of infected agents

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(peak of the epidemic spread) on e-networks is shifted to later times compared to i-networks. Importantly, we have found that the clustered e-networks are scale-free, which explains some previously obtained numerical observations concerning spectral density of the adaptively grown networks. Thus, by maximising the number of triadic motifs in the constrained ER networks, we have proposed a simple mechanism of generating scale-free graphs via the rewiring process. The epidemic spreading on the scale-free networks has some specific peculiarities [22]. In particular, the epidemic threshold almost vanishes, which means that the scale-free network is bad for epidemic suppression at the beginning of its distribution. However, once started, the epidemic can be operated on a scale-free network more effectively than on other types of networks. This rewiring mechanism for getting scale-free behaviour can be useful for these purposes. Acknowledgements We are grateful to O. Yartseva for pushing us to think about the impact of the underlying network structure on epidemic spread and to M. Tamm for valuable discussions. O.V, S.N. and A.G. acknowledge the support of the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 21-11-00215

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15. Viger F, Latapy M (2005) Efficient and simple generation of random simple connected graphs with prescribed degree sequence. In: Computing and combinatorics. Lecture notes computer science, vol 3595, p 440 16. Tamm MV, Shkarin AB, Avetisov VA, Valba OV, Nechaev SK (2014) Islands of stability in motif distributions of random networks. Phys Rev Lett 113:095701 17. Farkas IJ, Derényi I, Barabási A-L, Vicsek T (2001) Spectra of “real-world” graphs: beyond the semi-circle law. Phys Rev E 64:026704 18. Goh K-I, Kahng B, Kim D (2001) Spectra and eigenvectors of scale-free networks. Phys Rev E 64:051903 19. Seyed-allaei H, Bianconi G, Marsili M (2006) Scale-free networks with an exponent less than two. Phys Rev E 73:046113 20. Timár G, Dorogovtsev SN, Mendes JFF (2016) Scale-free networks with exponent one. Phys Rev E 94:022302 21. Hethcote H (2000) The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev 42:599 22. Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A (2001) Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. Phys Rev Lett 86:3200

Chapter 6

How Effective Were and Are Lockdowns? Konstantin S. Sharov and Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach

Abstract Efficiency and necessity of lockdown measures implemented on a scale of the whole world, cause much controversy. In this Chapter, we analyse whether total lockdowns are helpful in stopping spread of Coronavirus disease—2019 (COVID-19) and future similar global diseases, by means of investigating herd immunity formation to Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2, the viral causative agent of COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2). In the current absence of a vaccine, herd immunity remains the only way to stabilise human population reaction to the novel viral pathogen. We suppose that a real hazard of COVID-19 lockdowns is associated with the common governmental belief that it is the lockdowns that saved humanity from excessive mortality connected with COVID-19. Our research based on SIR compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 spread proves that it is a very dangerous misbelief with far-reaching consequences. It is SARS-CoV-2 relatively low contagiousness and case fatality rate that led to avoidance of millions of deaths, not lockdowns. Non-evidence-based reliance of governments just on total lockdown as a universal measure of the pandemic containment may be much more devastating in the future, in case of possible consecutive waves of SARS-CoV-2 or any other viral pathogen.

K. S. Sharov (B) Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 26 Vavilov st, Moscow 119334, Russia e-mail: [email protected] F. E. I. Legach Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Dean of Temple of St. Transfiguration in Kharkov, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 23 Pereyaslavskaya st., Kharkov 61016, Ukraine © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_6

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Introduction In spring 2020, humanity has known a new word in English dictionary, a “lockdown.” Many governments, including most of European governments and the Russian one, immediately started to rely upon the effectiveness of compulsory isolating people from each other and placing them behind locked doors (thence the word “lockdown” originated). Using the word “self-isolation” as a synonym of “lockdown”, to be sure, has hypocritical connotations, as the people isolation in Europe and Russia, especially Moscow, in March-June 2020 was everything but voluntary. In the previous Chapter, Olga Valba, Vladik Avetisov, Alexander Gorsky and Sergei Nechaev showed that isolation is preferable than borders closing. In the current Chapter, we are aimed at determining to which extent isolation may be effective at all. Efficiency and necessity of lockdown measures implemented on a scale of the whole world, cause much controversy [1–3]. In the current Chapter, we will analyse whether total lockdowns are helpful in stopping spread of Coronavirus disease— 2019 (COVID-19) and future similar global diseases, by means of investigating herd immunity formation to Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2, the viral causative agent of COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2). In the current absence of a vaccine, herd immunity remains the only way to stabilise human population reaction to the novel viral pathogen. It was repeatedly emphasised that creating of so-called herd (population, block, natural) immunity is important for slowing down the rate of COVID-19 spread in population and, actually, for stopping the pandemic [4–10]. However, as of 25 June 2020, not many official investigations of SARS-CoV-2 dissemination in the whole ecosystems and populations (e.g. random mass testing, representative sample screening, closed ecosystem studies, etc.) have been performed and reported, that would allow us to estimate the level of herd immunity formation. Henrik Jarlov collected the most comprehensive list of all programmes of COVID-19 population mass screening [11]. The evaluation of herd immunity formation may be highly important in clinical treatment of COVID-19 patients for several reasons. First, it may help to avoid excessive loads related to COVID-19 suspicious cases, on healthcare systems by differentiating COVID/non-COVID cases. This knowledge is relevant even in June 2020, as a second COVID-19 wave is not impossible. A threat of healthcare system overheat has been already reported for a number of countries [12–15]. Second, it may give a more realistic picture of COVID-19 spread in the population and, therefore, provide more dependable statistical data on the number of the infected, symptomatic and asymptomatic patients at a given time point. Third, it can be used for elaborating the general rules of identifying and classifying the patients. And most importantly, herd immunity may be a means of assessing the efficiency of lockdown measures. Used as an epidemiological instrument initially, notorious and much talkedabout lockdowns unfortunately transformed to means of social control and political compelling/blackmailing in many parts of the world. Excepting a very limited number of countries, the almost global and universal governmental response to COVID-19

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pandemic evidently put the world on the verge of the Orwell’s 1984 scenario. Now, in August 2020, when media and many politicians do not stop to speculate about second and consecutive waves of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, lockdown measure are looming on the horizon again. In UK, in the small city of Aberdeen in Scotland, exceeding the acceptable SARS-CoV-2 infection limits defined by the government merely by fifty humans, plunged the city in the full lockdown of indefinite length again. The Brazilian population vast in size continues to suffer from incessant lockdowns. In USA, each state administration regards COVID-19 differently and the country remains severely split in terms of the containment strategy. In Russia, all governmental media do not cease to intimidate people by a possibility that soon everybody will be locked again and every citizen will pay for his/her relaxed summer rest (basically, normal mode of life without concussive deprivation of personal freedoms). Is the time not come when we should critically evaluate with the help of mathematical models backed by experimental epidemiological information collected thus far, to which extent the lockdown measures and strategies should be used again, if used at all. Currently, a lot of mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread have been elaborated, both theoretical [16, 17] and computational, many of them already described, e.g., in Special Issues of Chaos, Solitons and Fractals journal “Modeling and forecasting of epidemic spreading: the case of Covid-19 and beyond” [18, 19]. By dint of our model, we hope to contribute to our mutual understanding of the lockdown measures efficacy.

Materials and Methods Methodology We propose a Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) modified compartmental model. Using epidemiological data as input parameters for the model, we calculate times and levels of herd immunity formation for different modes of containment (lockdown and no-lockdown). Finally, we will evaluate the efficiency of lockdown measures.

Open-Source Primary Epidemiological Data The statistical data on COVID-19 random testing were used: Diamond Princess cruise ship [20–23], evacuation flights data in Japan [24], Japan [25], Republic of Korea [26], Taiwan [27], Austria [28], Germany [29], Iceland [30], Lombardy (Italy) [31]; Portugal [32]; Russia [33]; and United Kingdom [34].

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Privately Collected Primary Epidemiological Data COVID-19 primary statistical data sets were collected since 2 March to 21 April 2020. In May–August 2020, additional data have been collected that changed our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 spread substantially. The Acknowledgement section contain a number of names of people who assisted in collecting the data and expressed their explicit consent for their contribution to be noted. The primary information and its sources are summarised in Table 6.1 for the initial period (March–April 2020).

Modelling the COVID-19 Spread in Population We assume that the dissemination of COVID-19 may be explained by a continuoustime Markov process model [35, 36]. This process can be generally described by a Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) compartmental model [37, 38]. Some authors used Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered (SEIR) model for their calculations [39–41]. We chose to use a common SIR compartmental model altered by introducing several significant modifications to the corresponding Markov process structure. Regarding lockdown measures imposed on citizens, we used two models: (a) common; (b) Swedish. In the former, full lockdown measures were implemented during the surge of COVID-19 disease (only Home—Pharmacy—Grocery Store— Walk with an Animal (e.g. dog, raccoon, marten, polecat, weasel, sable or ermine)— Hospital possibilities), in the latter no lockdowns were in force. Most of countries followed the lockdown way. Very few countries implemented no state-wide lockdowns, e.g. Sweden, Iceland, Belarus, People’s Republic of China,1 Japan, Taiwan, Republic of Korea. The Swedish model is more complex, and the corresponding Markov process includes 13 knots (in our modelling). The knots (states) of the Markov processes of people relocation in a community, are shown in Figs. 6.1 and 6.2. Figure 6.3 demonstrates our SIR modified compartmental model as a continuoustime Markov process modelling the infection transmission, with the knots (states) corresponding to different possible situations of a human in regard to the disease.

1

In spite of China had many quarantine zones, at no time Chinese government imposed the full lockdown on a scale of the whole country. Russia has many in common with China, e.g. diverse population density in different regions, large territory, different natural conditions in different provinces. None the less, regretfully Russian government did not follow the Chinese way during the first wave of the pandemic in managing various territorial zones in regard to SARS-CoV-2 spread.

5,702

3

4

8

Italy

Norway

Poland

2,142,600 37,205

1

Russia

2

Russia (official)

6

48,188

4

Portugal

4,262 208,314

Portugal (official)

2

4

5 42,147

0.389

234,870c

Italy (official)

0.025

1.459

0.469

2.027

0.012

0.795

0.009

1.183 2,848

10,102

Iceland

1

Iceland (official)

1

0.271

4,197b

2.800

0.056

0.376

0.296

1.742

Percentage of the population tested, %

224,220

18

Germany

3,081 2,320,415

2

Germany (official)

10

2

Finland

21,782

26,608

2

3

Denmark

4

3

Austria

Commercial and non- commercial test labs

Total number of tests made, available for our analysisa

156,800

Medical institutions and ambulance (hospital and field tests)

Number of venues surveyed

Austria (official)

Countries (in the alphabetical order)

2

22

18

15

8

16

12

1

2

1

34

16

6

12

14

10

Number of time snapshots availablea

Private

Public

Private

Public

Private

Private

Private

Public

Private

Public

Private

Public

Private

Private

Private

Public

Availability of data

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

(continued)

Official mass screening procedures taking place as of 25 April 2020

Table 6.1 Sources of private and publicly available data sets on COVID-19 statistics in some European countries obtained in time interval 2 March–21 April 2020

6 How Effective Were and Are Lockdowns? 85

20

1

27

12

27

10

Number of time snapshots availablea

Private

Public

Private

Private

Private

Private

Availability of data

No

No

No

No

Yes

No

Official mass screening procedures taking place as of 25 April 2020

We have no information about the total number of COVID-19 tests made on a scale of a whole country, if the information is not disclosed publicly. b As of 21 March 2020. c In Lombardy only. d In-patient (hospital only) PHE statistics, as of 21 April 2020

a As of 21 April 2020.

79

0.094

58

Total

> 4,500,000

62,254

7

United Kingdom

12

0.579

0.094 0.501

8

8,014

0.409

0.020

Percentage of the population tested, %

386,044d

2

The Netherlands

6

42,163

9,322

Total number of tests made, available for our analysisa

87,341

3

Switzerland

3

5

Commercial and non- commercial test labs

United Kingdom (official)

4

2

Sweden

Medical institutions and ambulance (hospital and field tests)

Number of venues surveyed

Spain

Countries (in the alphabetical order)

Table 6.1 (continued)

86 K. S. Sharov and F. E. I. Legach

6 How Effective Were and Are Lockdowns?

87

Fig. 6.1 Full-lockdown public policy of SARS-CoV-2 containment

Distribution and Relocation of Population in Space and Time in Two Different Modes of Containment Let us consider a human who may be in any of the five places in a full lockdown mode of life. Then the probabilities of his/her stay in these five places are p0 (home), p1 (pharmacy), p2 (grocery store), p3 (street saunter with an animal, most commonly a dog), p4 (hospital / any other medical institution, in inpatient / outpatient modes of treatment). It is obvious that 4 

pi (t) = 1

(6.1)

i=0

First, let us write a system of Kolmogorov linear differential equations for the movement of a human in Model 2 (in a country with a full lockdown mode). For the considerations of simplicity, we assume that a hospitalisation may be made only from his/her home, and intensities are not functions of t:

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Fig. 6.2 No-lockdown public policy of SARS-CoV-2 containment. It represents a “bicycle wheel” where every knot (state) is connected with all other knots (states), with intensity coefficients λij , i and j are running from 0 to 12: Home {0}—Pharmacy {1}—Grocery store {2}—Walk with an animal {3}—Walk anywhere with several people together {4}—Public transport {5}—Public gatherings, excluding mass gatherings {6}—Cafés, restaurants {7}—Hospitals, medical institutions {8}— Offices, working places {9}—Asylums, orphanages, hospices {10}—Weekend limited gatherings, camps on nature (e.g. school, university, corporate etc.) {11}—Educational institutions (schools, universities, training programmes etc.) {12}. For simplicity of the figure, full sets of arrows are shown only for knots 1 and 2

⎧ dp (t) 0 ⎪ ome) = χ10 p1 (t) + χ20 p2 (t) + χ30 p3 (t) + χ40 p4 (t)− ⎪ dt (H ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ −(ϕ01 + ϕ02 + ϕ03 + ϕ04 ) p0 (t), ⎪ ⎪ ⎨ dp1 (t) macy) = ϕ01 p0 (t) + χ21 p2 (t) − (χ10 + ϕ12 ) p1 (t), (Phar dt dp2 (t) ⎪ ocer y) = ϕ02 p0 (t) + ϕ12 p1 (t) − (χ20 + χ21 ) p2 (t), (Gr ⎪ dt ⎪ dp3 (t) ⎪ ⎪ = ϕ03 p0 (t) − χ30 p3 (t), ⎪ dt (Saunter ) ⎪ ⎩ dp4 (t) ospital) = ϕ04 p0 (t) − χ40 p4 (t). (H dt

(6.2)

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Fig. 6.3 Schematics of a continuous-time Markov process describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission (SIR modified compartmental model)

For the second model (Swedish), we have fourteen Kolmogorov equations. Taking into account that Markov process in the Swedish model is ergodic, in comparison with the full lockdown Markov process, we receive the following system of Kolmogorov equations: 13 13   − dpi (t) = ϕ ji p j (t) − pi (t) ϕi j , i =(0; 12) dt j =0 j =0 j = i j = i

(6.3)

Typical values of λij and μij are taken from the similar models of human relocation, as described in the works [42–45].

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To estimate the number of the immune people and, therefore, the level of herd immunity created thus far, we have to observe how Kolmogorov equation systems (6.2) and (6.3), and the corresponding master equations behave (how the solutions pi (t) change) on varying the epidemiologic and demographic parameters. The solutions, i.e. probability functions pi (t) are complex functions of t, and they have these parameters as variables:   pi = pi t, r0 , cdr op. , csur f. , Nimm (t) ,

(6.4)

where r 0 is basic reproduction number, cdrop contagiousness coefficient of droplet transmission, csurf contagiousness coefficient of touching surface transmission, N the total number of humans in a community, N imm the number of people in the community who already have the immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Using coefficients of transmission is a rather new concept. In fact, these coefficients represent probabilities of a non-immune person of becoming infected through a direct contact with a person already infected or a contaminated surface: N f ter contact , and, therefore, 0 ≤ cdrop. + csurf. ≤ 1. In a more broad sense, 0 ≤ c = inNf ecteda totalcontacts cdrop. + csurf. ≤ 2, but the value 2 for the sum is not achievable even for the most contagious diseases known to humanity thus far (e.g. varicella for droplet transmission or Ebola haemorrhagic fever for body liquids transmission). Basic reproduction number r 0 is estimated differently by different research groups. The difference is tremendous, from 1.6 [36] or 2.6 [46] to 5.6 as a median with 6.7 as the maximal value [47] and even almost 15 for the virus spread estimations on Diamond Princess cruise ship [20]. In its report of 17 and 24 April 2020, Robert Koch Institute made evaluations of r 0 as low as 0.5–0.6 [29]. Such enormous difference in evaluating basic reproduction number may result from the fact that various research groups studied different samplings incomparable with each other in terms of closeness and rate of human contacts. We will use r 0 = 1.6 and 5.6 as reference points. The sum cdrop + csurf was initially estimated in 0.3–0.4 range (nearly 3 or 4 of 10 persons directly contacting an infected individual of surfaces with a full virus titre, will be infected by SARS-CoV-2 virus) [48–50], where cdrop may be 0.1–0.2 [50]. Values of N for different communities are taken from various demographic sources (t) is required to be assessed in our publicly available over the Internet. h(t) = Nimm. N model.

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Model of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission To perform estimations of N imm (t), an additional Kolmogorov equation system should be included in our analysis. Within our SIR modified compartmental model, this system of linear differential equations describes intensities and directions of flows in the transmission model (Fig. 6.3). Analysing the behaviour of Markov process that describes the virus spread, along with the behaviour of systems (6.2) and (6.3) of space–time population distribution, enabled us to evaluate the level and time of herd immunity formation in the countries studied. A non-infected person may contact with: (a) an ambiguous person (he/she may be either infected or non-infected) (knot 1); (b) a proven SARS-CoV-2 carrier (knot 2); (c) a contaminated surface (knot 3); (d) an ambiguous surface (a virus amount may be present or may not) (knot 4). The knots 5–7 correspond to the virus carriers proven by an RT-PCR or RT-LAMP test: asymptomatic OR those in the incubation period (knot 5); mild symptomatic (knot 6) and severe symptomatic with atypical pneumonia clinical picture (knot 7). Finally, the outcomes are either decease (knot 8) or recovery (knots 9–10). Among the recovered patients, there may be the contagious ones (knot 9) and completely recovered ones without active virions in their bodies, and therefore, without any SARS-CoV-2 contagiousness (knot 10). The Markov process is nonergodic, non-stationary. We are interested in the characteristics of the final state of this process. Potentially, with relatively large time values, the Markov process described will reach a stationary state of the maximal herd immunity formation (one global spike of disease) or several quasi-stationary states of local herd immunity plateaus formation (two or more local spikes of disease), with the last plateau being the global maximum of herd immunity achievable in population. The stationary state of the Markov process discussed will not change over time any longer; the quasistationary states will not change over some time. These states correspond with herd immunity global and local plateaus. We shall find the times and values of these plateaus by finding the inflection points of herd immunity dependence on time, that coincide with extremum points of herd immunity first time derivative. The Kolmogorov equations for this SIR modified disease transmission compartmental model are the following:

92

⎧ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎨

K. S. Sharov and F. E. I. Legach dp0 (t) dt



non−in f ected per sons,non−immune



= μ10 p1 (t) + μ20 p2 (t) + μ30 p3 (t) + μ40 p4 (t)−

−(λ01 + λ02 + λ03 + λ04 ) p0 (t), dp1 (t) dt



non−in f ectedper son contactsambiguousper son



= λ01 p0 (t) + μ51 p5 (t) + μ91 p9 (t) + μ10,1 p10 (t)−

−(λ15 + λ16 + λ17 + μ10 ) p1 (t), dp2 (t) dt



non−in f ectedper son contactsin f ectedper son



= λ02 p0 (t) + μ52 p5 (t) + μ62 p6 (t) + μ72 p7 (t)−

−(λ25 + λ26 + λ27 + μ20 ) p2 (t), dp3 (t) dt



non−in f ectedper son touchescontaminatedsur f ace



= λ03 p0 (t) + μ53 p5 (t) + μ63 p6 (t) + μ73 p7 (t)−

−(λ35 + λ36 + λ37 + μ30 ) p3 (t), dp4 (t) dt



non−in f ectedper son touchesambiguoussur f ace



= λ04 p0 (t) + μ54 p5 (t) + μ94 p9 (t) + μ10,4 p10 (t)−

−(λ45 + λ46 + λ47 + μ40 ) p4 (t), ⎛

⎞

⎟ dp5 (t) ⎜ ⎪ ⎠ = λ15 p1 (t) + λ25 p2 (t) + λ35 p3 (t) + λ45 p4 (t)− carrier state ⎪ dt ⎝ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ O Rincubationperiod ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ −(μ51 + μ52 + μ53 + μ54 + λ56 + λ58 + λ59 ) p5 (t), ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪

⎪ ⎪ dp6 (t) mildsymptomatic ⎪ = λ16 p1 (t) + λ26 p2 (t) + λ36 p3 (t) + λ46 p4 (t) + λ56 p5 (t)− ⎪ ⎪ carrier state dt ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ −(μ62 + μ63 + λ67 + λ68 + λ69 ) p6 (t), ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪

⎪ ⎪ dp7 (t) sever esymptomatic ⎪ ⎪ = λ17 p1 (t) + λ27 p2 (t) + λ37 p3 (t) + λ47 p4 (t) + λ67 p6 (t)− ⎪ carrier state dt ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ −(μ ⎪ 72 + μ73 + μ76 + λ78 + λ79 ) p7 (t), ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪

⎪ ⎪ dp8 (t) deceased ⎪ ⎪ = λ58 p5 (t) + λ68 p6 (t) + λ78 p7 (t), ⎪ per sons dt ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪

⎪ ⎪ dp9 (t) r ecover ed,immune, ⎪ ⎪ = λ59 p5 (t) + λ69 p6 (t) + λ79 p7 (t)− ⎪ contagious dt ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ −(λ9,10 + λ9,1 + λ9,4 ) p9 (t), ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪ ⎪

⎪   ⎪ dp10 (t) completelyr ecover ed, ⎩ = λ9,10 p9 (t) − λ10,1 + λ10,4 p9 (t), immune dt asymptomatic

(6.5) where probability changes (first derivatives) in the left parts of the equations are calculated by means of separate probabilities pi and current intensities λij. A separate probability pi stands for a description that in moment t a human being will be in state

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93

S i (one of the described states). A major assumption of the model that oversimplifies it is that a said human cannot be in two states simultaneously. Plus signs are for straight direction (from initial events in the disease to further events, i.e. classical progression of the infection) (black arrows in Fig. 6.3) and minus signs for backward events that return a human to previous states (blue arrows in Fig. 6.3). The exact structure of possible connections and, therefore, currents, were taken from the book of Karin VanMeter and Robert Hubert [35].  Besides, the condition (6.1) is met for this system, as Nm = N , where m m = 8 m is the number of Markov process knots, in our case 11, and we consider that the number of deaths is small. Several obvious border conditions and definitions may be further explicated, such as p0 (0) = N(0) / N < 1; the inequality assumes that at the initial moment of time there is a portion of persons that already have the immunity to SARS-CoV-2; p10 (T ) + p9 (T ) = N immune (T ) / N, where T > > t (in fact, we may take T → ∞ for the simplicity), is the final herd immunity level; while p10 (t) + p9 (t) may be not equal to N immune (t) / N for any moment of time. For any t the intermediary herd immunity level may be measured as νimmune (t) =

N9 (t) + N10 (t) . N

(6.6)

Likewise, p8 (T ) = N d (T ) / N, is total population fatality rate (TPFR). For any t we use νdeseased (t) =

N8 (t) N

(6.7)

instead. It is population fatality rate (PFR) that shows the percentage of the deceased in the total population. p5 (t) = p5,incubation (t) + p5, asymptomatic (t) f or any t;

(6.8)

Nin f ected , N

(6.9)

p5, asymptomatic (T ) = Nasymptomatic (T )/N ;

(6.10)

p8 (t) Ndeceased (t) = p5 (t) + p6 (t) + p7 (t) + p8 (t) Nin f ected (t)

(6.11)

P I R = p5 (t) + p6 (t) + p7 (t) = for any t, is population infection rate (PIR);

and

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K. S. Sharov and F. E. I. Legach

is the infection fatality rate (IFR). We composed the system (6.5) just for one person. Solving the system numerically for each person for each state in (6.2) and (6.3) with a subsequent averaging, and observing how the solutions would change on varying epidemiological parameters, is not a best algorithm. In a community there are N people, and this number is constant (the number of deaths is small in regard to the total population size). Therefore, we have a multinomial distribution. We may assume that the time of a contact with a carrier is negligibly small in comparison with other times (e.g. the time of selfisolated life or a stay in a hospital). Then, according to Sanov theorem about large deviations for a multinomial distribution [51] further explicated by Borovkov [52], we receive the equation: N! N10 (t) p0N0 (t) (t) · . . . · p 10 (t) 10 (Nm (t)!) m ∈ M, m=0 ⎞ ⎛ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ 10  ⎟ ⎜ (t) ν m ⎜ + R⎟ = ex p ⎜−N · νm (t)ln ⎟, pm (t) ⎟ ⎜ ⎠ ⎝ m ∈ M, m=0

(6.12)

  −  where m =1; 10) (m ∈ M ; M = {0; 5; 6; 7; 8; 9; 10}, i.e. m is an index from set M, running through the chosen integer values from 0 to 10. It means that we take into account only non-immune non-infected people; all types of carriers (asymptomatic, mild symptomatic and severe symptomatic), immune contagious recovered persons and fully recovered and immune persons. Further, νm = NNm , and R is a compensating term: R≤

7 (lnN + 1). 2

(6.13)

Indeed, (6.12) can be obtained for our case in such a way. Infection process development may be described as a continuous Ehrenfests’ chain [44, 53, 54]. Let ξ (t) stand for these Ehrenfest chain within our virus spread system. ν m and ν m+1 are parts (proportions) of Markov chains ηi that in time moment t are in states m and m + 1, i.e. they can be defined as Ehrenfest frequencies:

vm (t) = 1 −

ξ(t) and N

(6.14)

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νm+1 (t) = 1 −

ξ (t) N

(6.15)

Then, as explained by A. Gasnikov in details in his work [54], let us express the probability of these frequencies being probabilities p1 and p2 (later we may transfer similarly to all our probabilities pm ): P(vm (t) = p1 , vm+1 (t) = p2 ) N! == P(ηm (t) = m) N p1 P(ηm (t) = m + 1) N p2 . (N p1 )!(N p2 )!

(6.16)

Indeed, Ehrenfest chain ξ (t) with N + 1 knots may be expressed via N independent or dependent Markov chains ηi with only one border condition P(η0 (t) = 0) : (in conditional designation) ξ (t) = def

m 

ηi (t).

(6.17)

P(ηi (t) = 0).

(6.18)

i=1

Hence we have P(ξ (t) = 0) =

m  i=1

Switching in (6.16) to the limit at t → ∞ (we assume that the virus spread may be as prolonged as we prefer and not restricted by time), we receive lim P(vm (t) = p1 , vm+1 (t) = p2 ) =

t→∞

1 N! . (N p1 )!(N p2 )! 2 N

(6.19)

After that, we proceed to the limit at N → ∞ (the human population size where SARS-CoV-2 is spreading may be as large as we prefer). Using Stirling formula for factorial approximation n −n

n! = n e we obtain (with compensating O it)

√

1 n

   1 , 2π n 1 + O n

(6.20)

with an approximate equality and simplifying

2−N 1 1 lim P(vm (t) = p1 , vm+1 (t) = p2 ) ≈ √ √ . N p1 N p2 t→∞ p 2π p N p2 1 2 p1

(6.21)

It is obvious that the right part may be re-written using logarithmic functions of probabilities ψ( pi ) = − p1 1n p1 − p2 1np2 and exponent, and then we have:

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lim P(vm (t)) = p1 , vm+1 (t) = p2 )

t→∞

2−N 1 ≈√ √ exp (−N (− p1 ln p1 − p2 ln p2 )) N 2π p1 p2

(6.22)

We investigate our system of SARS-CoV-2 dissemination for stability—precisely what we do with studying the behaviour of its Lyapunov functions. Here the stability may be defined as Sanov [51], Borovkov [52] and Gasnikov [54] define it, viz. a stable state of virus spread system (p1 , p2, …, pm ) in whose little neighbourhood stationary measure (probability of frequencies ν m receiving values m, m + 1, m + 2, …) is being concentrated, independently of t. It is simpler to consider stationary states with t → ∞, but non-stationary states may be obtained as easily. Maximising m pi = P(vm (t) = p1 , vm+1 (t) = p2 ) on condition that p1 + p2 = 1, or ultimately i=1 1, is the same as minimising ψ(pi ). Differentiating ψ(pi ) by t, we receive dpi (t) = dt

m 

λ j p j − λi pi .

(6.23)

j = 1, j = i

It is not difficult to see that we received exactly our system of Eqs. (6.5) with Lyapunov functions ψ(pi ), Q.E.D. The same procedure may be carried out first for considering limit at N → ∞ and only after that at t → ∞. In such a case, the completely similar result may be received using the theorem formulated by Thomas G. Kurtz [53]. Now, having assured ourselves that system (6.23) is in fact system (6.5), we can analyse the behaviour of our multinomial distribution (6.12) without solving system (6.5) for each state in (6.2) and 6.3. We can vary r 0, cdrop + csurf and compare the outcome. A proprietary C# algorithm was written for estimating levels and times of herd immunity formation in the countries studies. We observed the stability of the multinomial distribution of virus spread in the population (6.12) by analysing the behaviour of Lyapunov functions of master equation corresponding to the process (6.5) in the non-negative orthant Rn+ (all probabilities and herd immunity levels are non-negative real numbers from 0 to 1; times are non-negative real numbers). Finding the attractors (if any) by means of analysing Lyapunov functions behaviour in the orthant Rn+ would allow us to determine the most probable values of the projected herd immunity and the times of its formation.

Software Packages Microsoft Visual Studio 2010, OriginLab OriginPro 8.1 and PTC Mathcad 6.0 were used.

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Time of Completing the Chapter The work was prepared in its initial state in April 2020 and was re-considered several times in May, June and August 2020 with serious corrections of the model proposed. The final revision was completed by 24 August 2020.

Results and Discussion Change of Population Infection Rate Over Time In addition to the mean population infection rate (PIR) level, its change over time is of importance. In Figs. 6.4, 6.5, 6.6 and 6.7, the time dependence of instantaneous PIR is shown for United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Russia (lockdowns) and Sweden

N new pos.cases , i.e. the (no lockdown). Instantaneous PIR is calculated as P I R inst. = N newtestsmade ratio of daily increase of positive cases to daily increase of the tests performed. We observed mixed dependency on time here. By 21 April 2020, symbate dynamics of instantaneous PIR and daily increment of positive cases is observed only for Russia. For UK, there is a maximum of instantaneous PIR that does not

Fig. 6.4 Dynamics of instantaneous PIR for UK for late April 2020. For Figs. 6.4–6.7, except Russia, all instantaneous PIRs are calculated on the basis of privately collected data. For Russia, official statistics is used, since no sufficient snapshot amount is present in the private data set. Grey columns represent daily change of confirmed positive cases. Blue dots are instantaneous PIRs calculated. Blue polylines are parts of linear piecewise approximations

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Fig. 6.5 Dynamics of instantaneous PIR for the Netherlands for late April 2020

Fig. 6.6 Dynamics of instantaneous PIR for Russia for late April 2020

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Fig. 6.7 Dynamics of instantaneous PIR for Sweden for late April 2020

coincide with the maximum of confirmed positive cases. For the Netherlands, the approximation is very close to a constant line. For Sweden, we may localise a decay, low plateau and growth. On the whole, for the four countries concerned, instantaneous PIR as a function of time does not correlate with confirmed cases dynamics. Asymbate dynamics of instantaneous PIR and confirmed positive cases at the initial stages of the pandemic (Figs. 6.4–6.7) may be generally explained by three factors. First, the samplings in at least one case (confirmed positive cases measurements or mass screening procedures) may be not fully representative on a scale of a population. Second, the change in new tests performed on a daily basis may grow with different speed than the infection dissemination, e.g. faster constant growth of number of tests made than the disease spread may result in an instantaneous PIR decay on growing confirmed cases dynamics. Third, several spikes of disease may be present of which we are currently detecting only one. Along with relatively low values of PIRs, it enables us to suggest that three scenarios for European countries studied are possible, regarding real (not observed) disease spread extremums: a. b.

c.

disease peak has not yet been passed on 21 April 2020; there may be several disease peaks, and different European countries may be situated in different time places regarding the peaks (e.g. between them); a current situation may be an overlapping of different peaks; disease peak has been already passed unnoticed by the world community, by the moment of the pandemic announcement (early March 2020).

Taking into account these three scenarios, creating herd immunity may become an even more important factor for population adaptation to COVID-19. It was so in April and continues to be in August 2020.

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Herd Immunity Formation Under Lockdowns and Without Lockdowns To estimate times and values of maximums of herd immunity formation in the countries studied, PC numerical solving the Kolmogorov equation systems described in Materials and Methods section with modelling the Lyapunov functions behaviour for the corresponding master equations (finding global attractors) has been performed for the three scenarios described above, for full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes of SARS-CoV-2 containment. On maximising herd immunity first derivative d Nimmune (t) dh(t) = , dt N dt

(6.24)

we receive the inflection points for herd immunity curves. The schematics for Sweden is shown in Fig. 6.8. For the interval 0–120 days from Day Zero, confirmed positive cases dynamics (official WHO data) may be approximated by an extreme function Ncon f ir med = N0 + Ae−e

t−tmax w

− t−twmax +1

,

(6.25)

and for Sweden the coefficients are:

Fig. 6.8 Calculation of herd immunity formation for Sweden. Day Zero is 15 March 2020. The inflection point of herd immunity is the maximum of its first derivative

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N 0 = 60.30 persons; A = 488.79 persons; t max = 30.07 days; w = 15.63 days. Different peak functions may be used for confirmed cases dynamics approximation [53–56]. The extreme function provided above was chosen of the list of the most widely used functions by criterion of achieving the best approximation results (the lowest χ dim. 2 and highest Radj. 2 ), where the parameters were calculated as follows: 2 χdim . =

χ2 =

(6.26)

 (xi − Ci )2 , σ2 i m  

σ2 =

χ2 , n−1

xq − x

q=1

(6.27)

2 ,

m

(6.28)

m is the numbers of points; n–1 is the number of degrees of freedom; x i are experimental epidemiological data; C i are approximated values; and σ 2 is variance. The adjusted coefficient of determination 2 Rad j =1−

(1 − R 2 )(n − 1) , n−k−1

(6.29)

where R is Pearson correlation coefficient between experimental data and the approximation and k is the number of explanatory terms (descriptors). Of course, another approximation could be used instead of the proposed one. Using private data on Sweden PIR, taking into account its no-lockdown mode of containment, r 0 = 5.6 and maximising herd immunity first time derivative by Lyapunov function analysis in the positive quadrant, give us a double exponential (green curve in Fig. 6.8): function dh(t) dt dh(t) (−e = De dt The coefficients: D = 3,417.46 days–1 t z = 62 days p = 1.6 q = 150.0 days u=1 v = 50.50 days



t−tz q

p

+( t−tv z ) ) u

,

(6.30)

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Finally, integrating dh(t) over t, we receive a sigmoidal function of h(t) (black dt curve in the inset in Fig. 6.8), with its maximum value of approximately 540,000 people (based on the epidemiological data collected for Sweden in June 2020). That means the overall herd immunity rate. Taking into consideration the population of Sweden (currently 10,319,600 people), it gave 20.80 per cent of population in April and 5.20 per cent in June 2020. Thus, we see a dramatic correction of the model to be discussed below.

Iteration-Based Correcting and Refining the Model SARS-CoV-2 is an evolving process that change our understanding on a constant basis. Obviously, SARS-CoV-2 has not yet reached limits of its dissemination. In our truly global world without any fixed cultural boundaries that might help to slow down tourism and migrant currents, spreading a new virus will continue till a stable co-existence with homo sapiens population has been attained [57–61]. As Wolfgang Sassin evidently showed in his modelling human evolutionary processes, in the global open world with population more than 1.2–1.5 billion people, even a local viral pathogen outbreak with 100–150 humans infected may hit the whole world in two– three months and the process of its dissemination will not be stopped by any restrictive means until a new evolutionary niche with co-existence of homo and the virus has been created [59, 60, 64, 65]. Regarding SARS-CoV-2, this niche is not created yet. New data on SARS-CoV-2 situation are appearing incessantly that help to improve the model by the possibility to input the most novel and relevant epidemiological information. Four major iterations of model correction/refinement have been made (mid-March prediction of April, mid-April prediction of May, mid-May prediction of June, and mid-June prediction of further SARS-CoV-2 spread). It is very important that the newest epidemiological information on the pandemic changed the model dramatically since March 2020, when Europe had entered the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. Additionally, different type of information has emerged since that time, viz. antibody testing programmes have been launched in many European countries, that are auxiliary sources of our knowledge about the virus spread. Figures 6.9, 6.10, 6.11, 6.12, 6.13 and 6.14 demonstrate that now, much later after SARS-CoV-2 initial outbreak in China, PIR diminished significantly, reaching a lower plateau independently of the country or mode of containment (full lockdown / partial lockdown / no lockdown) concerned. Of six states the data on which are presented in Figs. 6.9, 6.10, 6.11, 6.12, 6.13 and 6.14, UK and Russia chose full lockdown mode, the Netherlands partial lockdown while Sweden, Iceland and Belarus no lockdown at all. Surprisingly, since May 2020, a clear trend of PIR decrease was observed everywhere. In most of countries, PIR can be estimated now as some 2–4 per cent, in Sweden and Belarus 6–7 per cent, whereas initial March and April numbers were substantially higher. It may be possibly explained by improving representativeness of the virus (RT-PCR) and

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Fig. 6.9 Epidemiological data on population infection rate (PIR) collected for UK (full lockdown) in different months since the beginning of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Europe. In Fig. 6.9, 6.10, 6.11, 6.12, 6.13 and 6.14, whiskers show estimations of false positive and false negative test results for antibody testing programmes and false negative estimations for RT-PCR tests. Confidence interval (CI) is 95%

Fig. 6.10 Epidemiological data on population infection rate (PIR) collected for Russia (full lockdown)

antibody testing programmes. At the beginning of the pandemic, only people who were seriously ill with COVID-19 got into the focus of the tests, whether official, government-sponsored or commercial. This fact unfolds a likely origin of highly overstated epidemiological figures for UK and Belgium in Match-April (PIR of nearly 35–40 per cent). Later milder symptomatic patients were included in the tests

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Fig. 6.11 Epidemiological data on population infection rate (PIR) collected for the Netherlands (partial lockdowns)

Fig. 6.12 Epidemiological data on population infection rate (PIR) collected for Sweden (no lockdown)

too. But only since May and especially in summer 2020, a broad and much more representative cohort of European population commenced to be tested [66–70]. Using the May and June data as input parameters for the model enabled us to augment its quality and predicting force. June iteration based on June European epidemiological situation resulted in the herd immunity level prediction for August approximately four times less than the April prediction.

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Fig. 6.13 Epidemiological data on population infection rate (PIR) collected for Iceland (no lockdown)

Fig. 6.14 Epidemiological data on population infection rate (PIR) collected for Belarus (no lockdown)

Statistical Treatment Different predicting force of the model has been observed for different types of ambience: closed communities, semi-open premises and open space (Figs. 6.15, 6.16, 6.17, 6.18, 6.19 and 6.20). In these Figures, the June modelling iteration is provided that was performed at the time when the Chapter was prepared. It was based on the data collected by us during

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Fig. 6.15 Modelling herd immunity, real epidemiological data and statistical treatment of the model for closed communities. Pearson correlation coefficient between simulated curve and epidemiological data approximation: 0.95882 (p ≤ 0.00183). Estimations of Poisson noise of the model: 5.12%

Fig. 6.16 Scatter matrix (blue line) and 95% correlation CI ellipse (red line) are shown for the closed communities ambience. In the insets, coherence vs frequency of signal plots are provided. ( f )|2 Coherence between simulated curve and real data is calculated as Cab ( f ) = Paa|P(abf )P , where bb ( f ) Pab the cross power spectral density, and Paa and Pbb are power spectral densities of simulated curve and experimental data means

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Fig. 6.17 Modelling herd immunity, real epidemiological data and statistical treatment of the model for semi-open premises. Pearson correlations coefficients between simulated curve and epidemiological data approximation: 0.96290 (p ≤ 0.00072). Estimations of Poisson noise of the model: 6.68%

Fig. 6.18 Scatter matrix and 95% correlation CI ellipse are shown

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Fig. 6.19 Modelling herd immunity, real epidemiological data and statistical treatment of the model for open spaces. Pearson correlations coefficients between simulated curve and epidemiological data approximation: 0.93733 (p ≤ 0.01274). Estimations of Poisson noise of the model: 14.47%

Fig. 6.20 Scatter matrix and 95% correlation CI ellipse are shown

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surveillance procedures in UK, Russia, the Netherlands and Sweden. As modelling error estimations show (χ dim. 2 and Radj. 2 ), the model allowed to receive the best coincidence of predicted herd immunity with the experimental data for semi-open premises (multi-storey living houses, condominiums, fenced living districts, large offices, trading floors, warehouse premises, etc., where lowest χ dim. 2 and highest Radj. 2 were achieved within apartments and small houses) gave less exact results (Figs. 6.17 and 6.18). A biphasic structure of the virus spread predicted by the model was in a satisfactory agreement with the experimental epidemiological data. Modelling spreading SARS-CoV-2 in closed communities (family environments within apartments and small houses) gave less exact results (Figs. 6.15 and 6.16). Predicting the virus dissemination in open spaces was the least precise (Figs. 6.19 and 6.20). In Fig. 6.21, the comparison of the model precision is given for the four main iterations of correcting the model. Precision coefficient is calculated as the mean of precision factors for each point i of n: Pr ec =

n 1  |Cmodi − Cr eali | , |C xi | n i=1

(6.31)

where C x i is the largest by module of {C mod i ; C real i }; C mod i is a modelled value in point i; and C real i is an observed value in this point. In Fig. 6.21, one can see that the model changed essentially since the beginning of the pandemic. In March 2020, PIR = 19.19% was taken as the maximum of herd immunity that may be achieved without any lockdown and restrictive measures. In August 2020, it is

Fig. 6.21 Model precision statistical estimations at every iteration (see text for detailed description)

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already becoming clear that that value is the maximum only for closed communities (Fig. 6.15). The fact is not very surprising, as such places with interlinked ventilation as Diamond Princess cruise ship may be considered a completely closed ecosystem [20–23, 71–75]. An opener ambience leads to much less PIRs (Figs. 6.17, 6.18 and 6.19). Current improving the model does not mean, however, that we achieved a desired level of precision. A possible surge of SARS-CoV-2 infected humans’ figures in autumn 2020 and winter 2020–2021 may introduce further significant corrections.

Conclusions The analysis of both epidemiological data and simulation results indicates that the initially anticipated herd immunity level for SARS-CoV-2 of nearly two thirds of a population or even higher, is hardly ever achievable. The real herd immunity for the current virus is three-six times as less. Therefore, COVID-19 contagiousness is not so high as it was initially thought in January-March 2020. Almost universal and worldwide implementation of lockdown measures and complete switching off the economies, as it has been done in Germany, France, Russia or UK, may be reckless. Despite some governmental and administrative assumptions that only strict quarantine might lead to diminishing SARS-CoV-2 spread, our study does not confirm it. Neither modelling, nor PIR statistical data on the European countries collected and studied by us so far, may corroborate that full-lockdown modes are any better than the Swedish no-lockdown mode in terms of the virus dissemination (Fig. 6.22 and Table 6.2). Figure 6.22 demonstrates the June prediction iteration with 90 and 95% CI. According to the model, only at the very beginning of the epidemic, the lockdown mode may demonstrate better results in containment of the virus than no-lockdown one (pink line is lower than blue line). After 7–8 weeks of the virus spread, both modes start to give similar outcomes. This simulation is corroborated sufficiently by the experimental data obtained. Countries with full lockdowns and no lockdowns reached very similar results in PIR and herd immunity, viz. 3–5 per cent predicted by the model after the June iteration (Fig. 6.22) and 3–7 per cent of the total population observed in reality (Figs. 6.9, 6.10, 6.11, 6.12, 6.13 and 6.14). The basic reproduction numbers are also similar [75, 76]. Why so? First, during lockdowns people were still allowed to go outside, e.g. to grocery stores and saunter with pets. Meetings and causing reciprocal infection in elevators, on streets and in close premises were imminent. Second, ventilation system in large multi-storey buildings disseminated the virus further. Third, public transport was still on, where cross-infection possibility was high. Was any sense in lockdowns at all? We think yes. They helped to avoid healthcare system collapse in many countries. However, lockdowns are the evil, more or less. Their near and distant harm to health of different groups of population, economies, business and world supply chains is still to be assessed in the future.

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Fig. 6.22 Modelling herd immunity formation in lockdown and no-lockdown modes of SARSCoV-2 containment (August 2020 iteration)

We suppose that a real hazard of COVID-19 lockdowns is associated with the common governmental belief that it is the lockdowns that saved humanity from excessive mortality connected with COVID-19. Our research proves that it is a very dangerous misbelief with far-reaching consequences. It is SARS-CoV-2 relatively low contagiousness and case fatality rate that led to avoidance of millions of deaths, not lockdowns. We agree that the health consequences of the pandemic are devastating [77]. However, non-evidence-based reliance of governments just on total lockdown as a universal measure of the pandemic containment may be much more devastating in the future, in case of possible consecutive waves of SARS-CoV-2 or any other viral pathogen [78–80]. Governments should not use simplest lockdown ways of “containment” the virus with an obvious threat to the democracy and human rights in the whole world instead of elaborating complex and effective epidemiological and social strategies.

14.0

Estimated time of achieving 95% herd immunity, weeks

12.8

– 5.7; 6.6

11.5

– 16.3

5.24

13.2

6.9

3.0.63

5.17

11.5

– 13.3; 5.8

b

c

10.0

– 23.6

6.02

47.3

3.1

4.40

a 4.65

45.2

– 5.7; 2.7

b

c

42.8

– 16.3

5.11

45.0

3.0

4.77

a

5.56

43.6

– 13.3; 2.4

b

r 0 = 5.6

c

40.4

– 23.6

6.42

Negative time values stand for the time before the beginning of the infection process in a given community. a Scenarios: a. world disease peak (“first wave” of SARS-CoV-2) has not yet been passed on 11 March 2020 (announcement of the pandemic by World Health Organisation (WHO)); b. there are two peaks a and c; a current situation is their overlapping; c. disease peak has been already passed unnoticed before the pandemic was announced by WHO

7.2

Estimated time of achieving maximal rate of herd immunity growth, weeks

c

a

3.31

Total herd immunity achievable, per cent of population

4.78

Scenarioa

b

r 0 = 1.6

r 0 = 5.6

Basic r 0 = 1.6 reproduction number r 0

a

No-lockdown

Mode of Full-lockdown containment

Table 6.2 Estimation of herd immunity formation in Europe (95% confidence interval) during the “first wave” of SARS-CoV-2 according to our SIR modified modelling with the privately collected input data on different European countries, for different possible basic reproduction numbers r 0

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Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the following persons who helped them to collect statistical data on COVID-19 tests in different countries: Catharijne van de Berg (The Netherlands), Clara Søndergaard (Denmark); Alma Kjær (Denmark); Luise Strøm (Denmark); Marie Kristiansen (Norway); Sille Lassila (Finland); Matilde Da Costa (Portugal); Ines Rodrigues (Portugal); Aðalborg Ragnarsdóttir (Iceland); Agata Sturrisdóttir (Iceland); Kristina Eriksson (Sweden); Hanna Sjöberg (Sweden); Monica Luzzi (Italy); Giuseppe Franchi (Italy); Carlo Mancini (Italy); Lola Sánchez (Spain); Ana Martínez (Spain); Sofia Ramirez (Spain); Daniel von Braun (Switzerland); Alicja Kami´nski (Poland); Lady Cecily Grey (UK); Poppy Moore (UK).

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Chapter 7

Comparison of Containing SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and Far East in March–May 2020: Modelling and Experimental Data Konstantin S. Sharov and Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach

Abstract In this Chapter, we compare effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 containment in Europe (including Russia whose initial governmental response to COVID-19 made it a more European- than Asian-like country) and Far East (Taiwan, Japan, Korea) in March-May 2020 and elaborate recommendations to European and Russian governments regarding a second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Surveillance and bordercontrol measures should be strict to at least June 2022. No lockdowns are necessary. On the contrary, we see that total lockdowns were excessive in most countries and did not prove effective. Neither complete border closings are needed, nor disruption of national and international flights. Economies and businesses have already suffered too large pressure and damage because of the first awkward anti-crisis managerial steps in the situation of the pandemic. Instead, very tough border epidemiological control in airports must be implemented with infrared temperature detectors, portable SARSCoV-2 antibody analysers and ready-for-use observatories for suspected passengers, as well as intensified everyday chemical sanitization of airport facilities. One of the most effective measures against rapid SARS-CoV-2 dissemination in public places including airports, railway and bus stations is augmented air filtration with special antiviral sprays brought to fibre washers. Medical care systems have to have surplus capacities to receive additional COVID-19 patients, if needed. Storage of individual protective units should be controlled and maintained at a germane level to avoid shortages.

K. S. Sharov (B) Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 26 Vavilov St., Moscow 119334, Russia F. E. I. Legach Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Dean of Temple of St Transfiguration in Kharkov, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 23 Pereyaslavskaya St, Kharkiv 61016, Ukraine © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_7

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Introduction European and Russian initial response to SARS-CoV-2 was awkward and staggering in many aspects. The infection was allowed to spread across the whole of Europe and Russia freely, despite all necessary preventive measures might be done in a timely manner. The situation was especially bad for Russia with its conspicuous territory. Eastern countries represent much better examples of containing the novel coronavirus. In the Chapter, we compare the spread of the viral pathogen in Russian and Europe, on the one side, and Taiwan, Japan and Korea on the other. We shall demonstrate that these Eastern countries together with People’s Republic of China showed truly effective results in curbing the pandemic and the population infection rate was much lower in Far East than in Europe. Taiwan made tremendous success in fighting COVID-19, achieving the best efficiency (lowest number of cases and time range), including within risk groups [1–5]. In Taiwan, as it was recently described, most of serious cases of the disease were imported cases [6]. The domestic cases were asymptomatic or with mild symptoms such as anosmia, slight cough and subfebrile temperature [7, 8]. European countries did not manage to contain the epidemic at the very beginning. Therefore, in the situation of absence of medical vaccines (till the end of 2020), herd (collective) immunisation was the only possible way to slow down the disease dissemination in Europe. Unlike Taiwan, most of European countries imposed strict lockdown regimes in March 2020, on both citizens and business. The only exceptions were Sweden, Iceland and Belarus with no-lockdown modes of containment. By 22 May 2020, most of European countries have either removed lockdown measures completely or essentially loosened them. In spring 2021, new lockdowns in Europe ensued. However, an urgent question remains mainly unanswered in academic research, how many waves of the pandemic we should await. A possible prediction may be found in analysing level and rate of herd immunity formation. For EU/EEA countries, UK and Eastern Europe, predicting herd immunity formation is not only important for calculating time of opening borders within Schengen area, that is a determinant of normalizing the social life and switching on the economies [9–11]. As Wolfgang Sassin noted, measurement of population adaptation and its forecast for the future will show how dangerous a new virus may be for large populations until the pandemic has been completely contained [12–14]. For Taiwan, Japanese and Korean healthcare system, the current Chapter may be also of considerable interest. In Taiwan, Japan and Korea, the containment of SARSCoV-2 dissemination was so rapid and effective that population infection rate stopped at the level of hardly more than 0.6-1.5 per cent [15]. Strict border control was implemented that did not allow appearance of new niduses of infection in Taiwan, Japan and Republic of Korea. However, potential levels of herd immunity may be higher, e.g. due to hidden spread [16] or hospital transmission [17]. Several viruses, that resemble SARS-CoV-2 in structure (e.g. SARS-CoV) [18–20] and epidemiological characteristics (SARS-CoV; MERS; H1N1 Influenza A, different strains of Influenza B, etc.) [21–23], are commonly thought to form herd immunity of approximately half to two

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thirds of population. Some researchers evaluated the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 to create herd immunity of nearly the same percentage [24, 25]. A Hong KongeseBritish research team provides even higher values of minimum proportion of the total population required to stop COVID-19 spread, viz. 85 per cent of the whole population [9]. These estimations were performed on the basis of different theoretical models of COVID-19 causative agent dissemination and different tested cohorts. The question remains if SARS-CoV-2 is really similar to other human coronaviruses with more or less comparable structure (SARS-CoV; MERS; OC43; HKU1; 229E; NL63) and other acute respiratory viruses with droplet transmission, in terms of herd immunity formation potential. One of the most difficult task is to deal with SARSCoV-2 on a global scale, as in the globalized world without pecuniar boundaries any virus with droplet transmission cannot be effectively contained until a sufficient level of herd immunisation of the whole humanity has been achieved [26, 27].

Materials and Methods Population infection rate (PIR) is taken as an intermediary factor of adaptation strongly correlated with herd immunity. Herd immunity maximums are calculated by us on the basis of a modified version of Susceptible—Infected—Recovered model [28] and input data of external 1,006,512 virus tests (RT-PCR, Multiplex PCR, RTLAMP) made by commercial and non-commercial testing laboratories in fifteen European countries in time interval 2 March–22 May 2020 as well as 34,660 internal tests (1,854 schoolchildren, 5,530 members of their families +27,276 people in the following Russian cities: Moscow, St Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Krasnodar, and Makhachkala, tested for SARS-CoV-2 in different samplings: closed suburban districts, townhouses, multi-storey apartment buildings, random street environments, random representative population sets) [29, 30]. Of 1,006,512 external test results, information about the first 632,391 test results was collected by 21 April 2020. Information about the following 374,121 test results was obtained in time interval 22 April–22 May 2020. The current work was done in its completeness since 2 March to 18 July 2020. The model proposed by 21 April 2020 was further re-assessed with new epidemiological data and corrected correspondingly. The re-evaluation enabled us to estimate prognostic value of the model. Reporting of the study conforms to broad EQUATOR guidelines [31] and STROBE-NI cohort studies guidelines [32, 33].

Results and Discussion In European countries, there were four public policy modes of SARS-CoV-2 containment: (1) full lockdowns (e.g. France, Germany, UK); (2) initially partial lockdowns

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(e.g. the Netherlands); (3) lockdowns that started to be lifted in June 2020 (e.g. Austria, Denmark, Norway); (4) without any lockdowns (only Sweden, Iceland and Belarus). Figure 7.1 demonstrates population infection rate (PIR) values calculated for the very beginning of the pandemic in Europe (March 2020). N positivetests × 100%. Figure 7.2 shows the intermediate level of P I R[%] = Ntotaltestsmade Figure 7.2, panel A, demonstrates an analysis of one-time slice across different European countries (as of 21 April and 22 May 2020). Figure 7.2, panel B, provides PIR calculated for different cohorts in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Denmark on the basis of statistical data on testing people for SARS-CoV-2 in different

Fig. 7.1 Population infection rate for the beginning of SARS-CoV-2 spread in European countries. a Comparison of our privately obtained data with official data publicly available. b Comparison of PIR for different ambience. The data are collected by 24 March 2020

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Fig. 7.2 The level of SARS-CoV-2 population infection rate (PIR) created by 21 April 21 and 22 May 2020. a Comparison across the European countries studied, Diamond Princess cruise ship [34], Japan [35], Republic of Korea [36], Taiwan [14], and Japanese passengers flight evacuation data [37]. Different modes of containment are taken into consideration. For European countries, the data are obtained by us from commercial and non-commercial test laboratories. For Asian countries, we used official data available in governmental reports and press releases. A comparison of PIR calculated by our model, and real-life data are presented for each country concerned. Black dash-dot line shows PIR mean across fifteen European countries for 21 April 2020 (9.66%). Green dash line demonstrates real-life PIR mean across fifteen European countries for 22 May 2020 (6.85%). Red dot line corresponds with PIR mean across fifteen European countries, calculated by our model for 22 May 2020 (5.68%). b Different outcomes for different testing samplings in UK, the Netherlands and Denmark, for 21 April and 22 May 2020. The epidemiological data are collected by us

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environments, collected by us. Testing different cohorts for UK, the Netherlands and Denmark gives different results. Closed communities, precisely as one could expect, demonstrate larger PIR values than representative population samplings. The latter, in turn, exhibit greater PIRs than purely random samplings collected during street testing. It proves that higher infection is observed in denser environments. The comparison provided in Figs. 7.1 and 7.2, indicates several very important findings: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Across all European countries studied, PIR was comparable (a check for set integrity by the statistical Q-criterion shows that all the data may be included in one data set, and no data miss is present in the set of the fifteen countries studies, both for 21 April and 22 May 2020). Therefore, herd immunity created by these dates, was statistically comparable too. There was no significant difference between full-lockdown and no-lockdown countries in terms of PIR even at the beginning of the pandemic in Europe, less so with its continuation. Taiwan and Republic of Korea have much lower PIRs due to their different containment mode (active search-and-isolate modes instead of lockdowns). Japan, in spite of relatively high PIR in April 2020, later showed much less values (not shown in Fig. 7.2, viz. around 2.1% in July 2020, as more people were tested). These figures for Far East countries are much lower than PIR in Europe and Russia. PIR at Diamond Princess cruise ship is equal to 19.19 per cent. It may represent an upper limit of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity formation potential (in the absence of medical vaccines), as it was a totally closed ecosystem, and all its members were highly interconnected for approximately 1.5 months, both in regard to air droplet transmission and touching surface transmission. The PIR mean across fifteen European countries studied (9.66% as of 21 April 2020) was nearly equal to a half of Diamond Princess PIR and then began to diminish, reaching 5.68% by 22 May 2020, i.e. it became 1.7 times less during one month. Opposing real-life PIR data for 22 May 2020 against PIR levels calculated in our model on the basis of input epidemiological indicators obatained no later than on 21 April 2020, enabled us to estimate heuristic and prognostic value of the model. For countries with no-lockdown mode of containment, our model gave maximal accuracy of 98.4–98.5%. For countries with small population and lockdowns in force, accuracy is acceptable (around 80–90%). For countries with large population, such as Russia, Germany or UK, accuracy is poor to moderate (60–70%). Only for one country (Poland), the model predictions led to unsatisfactory and unreliable results (141% error). The reason for this is likely to be in an insufficient size of mass screening sample for Poland, that was available for our research. However, in the totality of fifteen European countries, our model showed satisfactory prognostic force (accuracy of 79.40%, or around 4/5).

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6.

125

The decrease of PIR with time across different countries indicated that SARSCoV-2 basic reproduction number was limited by an extremum that may be observed for closed communities, such as townhouses, close suburban districts, multistory apartment buildings, etc.

Figure 7.3 elucidates our concept of contagiousness coefficient c. Our model assumes interdependence of contagiousness coefficient and basic reproduction number c = c(r 0 ):  c(r0 ) =

1 , p −q er0 p + ar0 = br0 + d

0,

r0  = 0 r0 = 0.

The coefficients p, q, a, b, and d are summarised in Table 7.1. Starting from r 0 = 0.673 (no-lockdown maximum), both blue and green functions decrease in an exponential-hyperbolic way. It means that the overall contagiousness of SARS-CoV-2 is limited. E.g., if r 0 is 1.6 [38], then the full-lockdown mode gives contagiousness probability of 0.151. But if r 0 is equal to 7.4 [39] or even 15 [40], the probability of getting infected sharply falls, to 0.012 as a minimum. It may be understood in such a way. Basic reproduction number r 0 = 1.6 with 0.151 contagiousness coefficient means that, in a population, one hundred infected persons will transmit SARS-CoV-2 virus approximately to one hundred sixty new persons around them sooner or later. But only twenty-four people from those one hundred sixty persons will get really infected (i.e. they will have asymptomatic or symptomatic disease course). Possibly, it may be connected with SARS-CoV-2 low virulence (high minimal infecting doses are required to launch the COVID-19 disease in a human organism). Different samplings usually give different reproduction numbers. To eliminate this ambiguity of reproduction numbers, an effective reproduction number r eff. may be introduced as a function of r 0 : r eff. (r 0 ) = r 0 · c(r 0 ), or  re f f (r0 ) =

r0 , p −q er0 p + ar0 + br0 + d

0,

r0  = 0 r0 = 0.

The behavior of r eff. (r 0 ) is presented in Fig. 7.4. For different countries, coefficients p, q, a, b, and d are different. The effective reproduction number r eff. (r 0 ) is a smooth peak-like function of r 0 with maximum at r 0 = 4.671 and value r eff. = 0.315 for the full-lockdown mode and r 0 = 5.539 and r eff. = 0.552 for the no-lockdown mode. It means that, whatever the size, structure, density of a population might be, whichever contacts between humans in the population may be present, and whatsoever intensity of space-time relocation of people can be attained, 552 non-infected persons may get infected with COVID-19 only after their gradual contacting with no less than one thousand infected persons. Conversely, we may say that one thousand people will transmit the virus to 5,539 another people in a population, but only 552 of these 5,539 persons will exhibit real

126 Fig. 7.3 Calculated interdependence of basic reproduction number and contagiousness coefficient (probability of getting infected) for different containment modes: a (green)—no-lockdown mode; b (blue)—full lockdown mode. a scale 0-10 (basic reproduction number). b scale 0-1. c: scale 0-0.1

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7 Comparison of Containing SARS-CoV-2 in Europe … Table 7.1 Coefficients for the functions c(r 0 )

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Mode coefficient

Full-lockdown

No-lockdown

p

0.542

0.471

q

0.887

4.775

a

1.861

0.122

b

0.186

0.031

d

0.451

0.370

Fig. 7.4 Calculated dependency of SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number on the basic reproduction number r eff. (r 0 ) for the full-lockdown mode (cyan) and no-lockdown mode (pink) of containment. Extreme values of r 0 and r eff. are provided for the both curves

infection (asymptomatic or symptomatic), i.e. the immune response of their organisms. Therefore, SARS-CoV-2 can be evaluated as relatively low contagious agent, that does not elimitate its considerable hazard to risk groups. Full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes result for Europe in the outcomes not strikingly different from each other in terms of herd immunity values. It may be accounted for by the fact that, in the full-lockdown mode, a further gradual virus dissemination may be made through multiple human contacts in grocery stores, pharmacies, in public transport and during street walks. The level of such dissemination is not deviating very much from the virus spread in the Swedish (Icelandic, Belorussian) regime with free relocation of people. It is to note that the full-lockdown mode of containment is an ideal abstract. People never behave as governments expect. They violate quarantine and isolation regimes, voluntarily or indeliberately. In March-May 2020, we observed that a combination of the full-lockdown mode and no-lockdown mode was present almost everywhere throughout Europe. The model was updated according to new epidemiological data as of 22 May 2020. This update allowed us to estimate the COVID-19’ s wave possibility. Figure 7.5 demonstrates three possible scenarios of COVID-19 waves that our model assumes (calculations for Sweden). However, similar outcome may be received for any European country. can be analytically represented in the following way: The family of functions dh(t) dt

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Fig. 7.5 Dependence of herd immunity rate of formation (first time derivative) on time, calculated for Sweden. Three scenarios of COVID-19 waves and maximums for Swedish no-lockdown mode of containment. 15 March 2020 is taken as a zero point. See text for detailed explanation 

dh(t) = De dt

−e(

t−tz q

) +( t−tz )u v p



,

with coefficients presented in Table 7.2. The first scenario (green line) allows pandemic maximum after 15 March 2020, the date that was chosen as a reference point (WHO announced the pandemic on 11 March 2020). The second scenario (dark-blue line) implies that the maximum of Table 7.2 Coefficients for the functions dh(t) dt

Scenario coefficient D,

days−1

Peak before

Two peaks

Peak after

61.5543

12,655.22

13,669.85

t z , days

– 2

– 51

62

p

1.4

2.5

1.6

q, days

252.1

192.0

150.0

u

3

3

1

v, days

325.8

88.21

50.50

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the pandemic was already passed by the humanity before 11 March 2020, largely unnoticed, with maximums in autumn 2019 and winter 2019-2020. The third option allows two peaks, the first peak passed before 11 March 2020, and the second one after the date of WHO announcement. The observation that, since 21 April to 22 May 2020, PIR levels decreased in all European countries studied, proves that scenario 2 or 3 is likely to be in real life. Either the whole humanity had already passed the single peak by 11 March 2020, or a second peak is forthcoming. In case of a second wave, it is likely to be achieved by late October—early December 2020 on average in Europe. It means that the second wave will coincide with seasonal common cold surge in Northern hemisphere. In Sweden it may be as early as mid-September 2020, and in Russia as late as mid-February 2021. Even if the second and subsequent waves are not pronounced as stand-alone epidemics, we shall undoubtedly observe an autumnwinter rise of number of COVID-19 cases. Our calculations demonstrate that the second wave may give the number of COVID-19 cases approximately 10–15 times less than the first wave (integrating the cyan curve in Fig. 7.5, allows to estimate that for Sweden it is nearly 11 times less—proportion of the area beneath the second peak and above the first peak, of all area under the cyan two-peak curve). However, correct and relevant surveillance steps may help to considerably decrease the number of cases further. In fact, in many countries we did not observe considerable diminishment in new COVID-19 cases in spring 2021 because of the superposition of the first and second waves. Our modelling results depend on imperfect laboratory tests and oversimplified mathematical assumptions. False-positive and false-negative laboratory results, as well as highly complicated virus-host interactions, might negatively affect the accuracy of our predictions. The continuing refinement of COVID-19 testing technology, and advances in understanding this virus, will certainly improve our modelling and predictions in the future.

Conclusions A recommendation may be addressed to European governments that surveillance and border-control measures should be strict to at least June 2022. No lockdowns are necessary. On the contrary, we see that total lockdowns were excessive in most countries and did not prove effective. Neither complete border closings are needed, nor disruption of national and international flights. Economies and businesses have already suffered too large pressure and damage because of the first awkward anticrisis managerial steps in the situation of the pandemic. Instead, very tough border epidemiological control in airports must be implemented with infrared temperature detectors, portable SARS-CoV-2 antibody analysers and ready-for-use observatories for suspected passengers, as well as intensified everyday chemical sanitization of airport facilities. One of the most effective measures against rapid SARSCoV-2 dissemination in public places including airports, railway and bus stations is augmented air filtration with special antiviral sprays brought to fibre washers.

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Medical care systems have to have surplus capacities to receive additional COVID19 patients, if needed. Storage of individual protective units should be controlled and maintained at a germane level to avoid shortages. The great error of European countries was that they did not follow the Eastern way, despite it is the most resource-effective, convenient and harmless to economies and constitutional rights of citizens. In People’s Republic of China effective containment of SARS-CoV-2 was achieved by people discipline and tactic dividing the territory into small regions with “red,” “yellow” or “green” marking depending on the amount of the infected. Of all European countries with lockdown mode of containment, the most adequate response to the pandemic was in the Netherlands and Denmark. The most inappropriate and untimely measures were in Germany and United Kingdom. Initially Russia followed the European method uncritically (till summerautumn 2020), but later the Russian administration chose another way, focussing on vaccine development instead of blind continuation of lockdowns. That gave Russia an opportunity to become one of the major players at the frontier of struggle with COVID-19 in 2021. The Russian anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are being successfully employed in India, China and Southeast Asian countries. Our preliminary research shows that the full-lockdown way cannot be regarded as optimal, either during the current wave of the pandemic, or any future surges [41]. The Swedish (Belorussian, Icelandic) mode of containment demonstrates better results, since the economic impact is not so disastrous as in Germany, France or United Kingdom, and herd immunity potential is comparable. Though the Swedish (Belorussian, Icelandic) mode cannot be introduced in any European country for a number of demographic, social and epidemiologic reasons, containment measures should not prevent economies from their normal functioning and deprive citizens of their democratic rights. In containing SARS-CoV-2, Europe still must still learn on the excellent examples of Far East states. Acknowledgements The author expresses his gratitude to the following persons who helped him to collect statistical data on COVID-19 tests in different countries: Catharijne van de Berg (The Netherlands), Clara Søndergaard (Denmark); Alma Kjær (Denmark); Luise Strøm (Denmark); Marie Kristiansen (Norway); Sille Lassila (Finland); Matilde Da Costa (Portugal); Ines Rodrigues (Portugal); Aðalborg Ragnarsdóttir (Iceland); Agata Sturrisdóttir (Iceland); Kristina Eriksson (Sweden); Hanna Sjöberg (Sweden); Monica Luzzi (Italy); Giuseppe Franchi (Italy); Carlo Mancini (Italy); Lola Sánchez (Spain); Ana Martínez (Spain); Sofia Ramirez (Spain); Daniel von Braun (Switzerland); Alicja Kami´nski (Poland); Lady Cecily Grey (UK); Poppy Moore (UK).

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Part III

In Search for Alternative Therapy of COVID-19 Disease and Effective Management of Coronacrisis

Chapter 8

Prospects of Complementary Medicine in Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19: Phytotherapy as a Traditional Chinese Medicine and Ayurveda Technique Alexey M. Vasilenko Abstract In clinical practice, it was often observed that medicines used for COVID19 treatment in “standard” healthcare protocols, could not be applied for a number of patients due to their individual intolerance for some groups of drugs, e.g. antivirals or antimalarial medications. In this Chapter, we are focussing on studying perspectives of phytotherapy as a part of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in COVID-19 prevention and treatment. This complementary medical approach proved its effectiveness during the pandemic, especially in prevention of COVID-19 complications such as pulmonary oedema and extensive interstitial pneumonia by Chinese clinicians. The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China reported that 60,107 confirmed COVID-19 patients (85.20% of the total number of confirmed cases at the very beginning of the pandemic spread in Wuhan, in January– February 2020) were treated with TCM phytotherapeutic agents and in 61% of cases COVID-19 clinical course was milder than in similar patients untreated with TCM phytotherapeutical techniques. However, in spite of practical positive results, theoretical foundation of TCM phytotherapy is still missing. Randomised, double-blind and placebo-controlled studies are the best way to provide the most reliable evidence for phytotherapy in COVID-19 treatment. We suggest that clinical studies of TCM phytotherapy should use stricter protocols, information disclosure and careful review of results to assess the effect of TCM on COVID-19 clinical course and ensure compliance with international standards. We propose using TCM phytotherapeutical approach as an auxiliary, yet always at-hand method for preventing COVID-19 complications in European, Indian, Southeast Asian and Russian medical practice, as Chinese colleague are currently doing.

A. M. Vasilenko (B) 45 bld 2 Kronshtadsky blvd, Moscow 125499, Russia e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_8

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Complementary Medicine in SARS-CoV-2 Containment The first official information about an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan appeared on 31 December 2019 and on 1 January 2020. The World Health Organisation has declared it to be a “public health emergency of international importance” [1]. It is noted that to date there has been no evidence of the absolute efficacy of using any medication against COVID-19, whether antiviral, antimalarial, immune modulator or other drug. Based on an analysis of the literature on clinical experience with SARS-related coronavirus pneumonia associated with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, it has been possible to identify several aetiological drugs that are usually used in combination. These include ribavirin, lopinavir + ritonavir and interferon. However, the results of the use of these drugs do not allow an unambiguous conclusion to be drawn about their effectiveness / ineffectiveness, and therefore their use is permissible by the decision of the medical committee if the possible benefits for the patient exceed the risk [2]. On 6 June 2020, the official website of the G20 published a statement on the allocation of more than $21 billion for health care financing in the fight against the new coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, it was detected that many patients could not be treated with “standard” anti-COVID-19 therapy due to individual medication intolerance to some classes of drugs, e.g. antivirals or antimalarial medicines. Many digital scientific libraries and journals (such as the National Centre for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases, JAMA Network, Elsevier) have organised special publication sections about the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 on their websites. However, more than 10 scientific articles are published on this topic per day. It is not easy to understand and analyse this flow of information correctly. If the most quoted publication on coronaviruses [3] since 2003 for eighteen years has involved more than 3,400 sources (according to Google Scholar), the article [4], published only on 15 February 2020, refers already more than 900 sources. In total, there are more than 150 thousand articles and books about coronaviruses and subjects connected with them, according to Google Scholar. In the Pubmed database, as on 30 May 2020, 357 and 4 publications have been found by the key words “COVID-19 treatment” and “COVID-19 phytotherapy” respectively, all dated 2020. This reflects the current situation in medicine, which focusses on the preferential use of allopathic pharmaceuticals. However, among the impressive amount of information on COVID-19 allopathic treatment, there is a neglected topic about the role of phytotherapy in the fight against this pandemic. Here are just a few of the headlines from the Internet: “some Chinese hospitals are widely using traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) to treat COVID-19,” “TCM has proven effective in treating COVID-19,” “Coronavirus and TCM,” “Chinese experience in confronting the new coronavirus epidemic,” and “Chinese herbal formulas for COVID-19 prevention are helping?” Of all the TCMs in the arsenal, phytotherapy is in the centre of Chinese clinicians’ attention. In 23 of the 31 provinces of mainland China, different programmes recommending herbal formulas for prevention and complementary treatment of

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people already ill, have been officially launched. The use of phytotherapeutic formulas to prevent epidemics of infectious diseases has been practiced in China for thousands of years. However, of the 80 facts about Covid-19 and SARS-CoV-2, only 4 are devoted to TCM: Fact 72. Almost all patients in China have been prescribed TCM along with their usual medicines. Fact 73. The exceptionally useful TCM treatment formula was developed at Guangzhou Eighth People’s Hospital, recognised by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and officially approved by regional authorities. Fact 74. According to Xinhua Agency, the treatment of Covid-19 patients with Qingfei Paidu, along with basic therapy, is particularly effective. Fact 75. This traditional medicine is based on medicinal herbs and other plants, including Chinese conifers and licorice root—but there are dozens, if not hundreds, of all prescription variations.

Neither centuries of experience of TCM use, nor the data on modern phytotherapy with regard to COVID-19, are welcomed by most representatives of official medicine. In an interview with the Russian telecommunication agency TASS, the head of the Russian Ministry of Health M. A. Murashko has recently said that such products as onions, ginger and garlic, although they do affect the general immune system, are not comparable in effectiveness to antiviral drugs. A WHO expert, the Head of the Diagnostic Department of the FSAU NTZD of the Ministry of Health of Russia V. K. Tatochenko noted that such products were used to treat illnesses when there were no other means and they in fact represent not a treatment, but only mitigation of symptoms. The WHO recommendations to the general public in connection with the spread of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 “Myths and misconceptions” indicate that garlic is a health-friendly product with certain antimicrobial properties, but during the current pandemic there was no evidence of its efficacy as a means of preventing infection with the new coronavirus. However, phytotherapy has long history. The publications [2–4] examine the causes and mechanisms of coughing, as well as the possibilities of treating it with herbal medicines. Adverse reactions when using phytopreparation are usually 5 times less common than when using other drugs. Phytopreparations are characterised by good compatibility with synthetic drugs, allowing them, if combined wisely, to improve the therapeutic effect of the whole treatment significantly. Phytopreparations are most effective in acute infectious diseases of the respiratory tract, when there are no irreversible changes in the ciliary epithelium and glass-shaped cells. Vegetable-based preparations with expectorant effect may be single-component (with licorice root extract, ginger root extract, common anise fruit, plantain leaves and medication althaea) and multi-component (the same ingredient with the inclusion of other ingredients with anti-inflammatory, antispasmodic, analgesic or antioxidant effects). Lanceolate plantain leaves contain plant polysaccharides. Vegetable mucus forms a thin layer and mechanically protects the mucous membrane of the respiratory tract from irritating agents that provoke a coughing reflex, thus soothing a dry, irritating cough. Plantain enhances the secretion of the glands in the epithelium of the respiratory system, which facilitates the removal of mucus from the

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bronchi; it modifies a dry, excruciating cough that occurs early during a respiratory infection into a productive cough. In addition, the plant’s active components stimulate regeneration processes in the skin and on the mucous membranes and help to restore mucociliary clearance. Plantain extract, along with its enveloping and softening effect, increases the activity of the fibrillation epithelium, has pronounced anti-inflammatory, antihypoxic, immunomodulatory (stimulates interferonogenesis) and antimicrobial effect. Phytoncides and plantain phenols help to reduce the severity of catarrhal airway manifestations and also have antimicrobial effect. Thyme creeping (thyme) contains up to 2.5% essential oil and thymol, up to 64% carwacrol and also flavonoids. Thyme has also expectorant and activating effect on the secretion of mucus in bronchi. Its antispasmodic effect has been shown to result from the non-competitive, nonspecific suppression of the reaction of substances that contribute to smooth muscle spasm (acetylcholine, histamine, L-noradrenaline, etc.). Thyme and thymol essential oils have antibacterial and antifungal properties. The antibacterial effect of thymol is 25 times higher than phenol, but thymol is incomparably less toxic. It may be useful in treating COVID-19-related secondary bacterial pneumonia. The action of levomenthol (from Latin Mentha, mint) provides local anesthetic, analgesic and antiinflammatory results. In addition, levomenthol, through the coagulation of microbial cell proteins, has bactericidal and antifungal effects in vitro [5, 6]. The successful results of phytotherapy have been confirmed by modern clinical studies with regard to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV) and H1N1 influenza virus (“Swine flu”) epidemics. This historical experience demonstrates the feasibility of using the phytotherapeutic component of TCM, especially when used for a long period during the disease. Studies have shown that the effect of plant formulas in preventing and treating upper respiratory tract infections can be explained by their antibacterial and antiviral properties. Doctors in Wuhan use six effective phytotherapeutic agents against the novel coronavirus [7–9]: 1. Jinhua Qingan pellets were developed during the 2009 H1N1 influenza (“swine flu”) pandemic. They consist of 12 plant components, including honeysuckle, mint and liquorice, and help in reducing fever and detoxifying lungs. They have therapeutic effect in treating mild to moderate patients, can increase the rate of recovery of lymphocytes and leukocytes, and reduce the frequency of development of a more severe form of disease. 102 patients with mild symptoms in Wuhan received Jinhua Qingan granules during their treatment. Patients who took Jinhua Qingan granules received a negative RNA coronavirus test result two and a half days earlier than the group that did not take them. The condition of those who received the pellets improved after 8 days and those who did not receive them after 10.5 days. 2. Capsules/pellets Lianhua Qingwen are common TCM products used to treat colds and flu. Made up of 13 plant components, Lianhua Qingwen has healing effect on COVID-19 patients with mild to moderate symptoms, especially in the treatment of fever, cough and fatigue. It can reduce worsening the condition and prevent patients from many COVID-19 complications.

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3. The injection Xuebij Ing was developed and used during the SARS-CoV epidemic in 2003. It consists of five plant extracts and its main function is to detoxify and eliminate blood stagnation. It is usually used to treat sepsis. It is effective in suppressing systemic inflammatory response syndrome induced by infection, in treating seriously ill patients, and in restoring impaired organ function. A comparative analysis of 710 cases carried out jointly in 30 hospitals, showed that the Xuebij Ing injection combined with regular treatment can reduce the mortality rate of seriously ill patients by 8.8% and shorten hospitalisation times in the intensive care units by 4 days. Another project involved the clinical application of injections to patients with critical conditions since late January, when 156 patients were treated in 32 hospitals. All of them showed an improvement in the situation in comparison with the control group. The frequency of adverse reactions is about 0.3%, which is a very safe indicator, and this therapy does not affect the effectiveness of other treatments, including allopathic. 4. The decoction for cleaning and detoxifying the lungs has been obtained from several classic TCM recipes for the treatment of diseases caused by viruses of the common cold group. It contains 21 herbal ingredients that are effective in reducing symptoms of fever, cough and fatigue, as well as lung condition. The research has proven that decoction can regulate multiple cellular signalling pathways to inhibit virus replication and avoid or soften the so-called “cytokine storm,” which is an overreaction of cells that may damage the immune system. The decoction primarily targets the lungs. It can be used as a general prescription for treating lung bronchiolitis and moderate, severe and critical pneumonia. 5. Huashibaidu formula, a basic recipe developed by the national team of TCM from the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, is composed of 14 plant components aimed at detoxifying, facilitating coughing and, using TCM terminology, removing ‘moisture and heat’ from the body to achieve the body’s internal balance. It has a complex therapeutic effect at various stages of coronavirus pneumonia and can significantly shorten hospital stays and improve clinical symptoms and lung conditions. Studies on guinea pigs have shown that this formula can reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the lungs by 30%. 6. Huanfeibaidu granules contain 13 plant components originating from several classic traditional recipes also aimed at detoxifying the lungs, reducing the time it takes for clinical symptoms to disappear and returning the temperature to normal, effectively preventing deterioration of the lungs. Chinese doctors recommend the following medicinal plants and phytopreparations: (1)

(2)

Elderberry, a berry usually used in syrup, is rich in vitamins and antioxidants and reduces the symptoms of cold and flu. It is recommended to take 2 spoonfuls of syrup three times a day. It is contraindicated for pregnant and nursing mothers. Astragalus is a root widely used against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in China. It has strong immunoregulatory properties, helping maintaining

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robust expression of proteins involved in dynamic immunity function. This herb is mainly used for prevention and rarely used during the disease itself. Garlic. Raw garlic contains powerful antiviral compounds and antibiotics (namely allicin), which can help to protect the human body from many viral pathogens. Cooked garlic does not have the same effectiveness as raw garlic. Echinacea, a powerful medicinal herb, has a long pedigree in phytotherapy in various countries. Although Echinacea is best known for its immunostimulating properties, its main mechanism of action is blood purification, which makes it more suitable for a means of acute therapy rather than immune therapy tonic for long-term use. Drebu Sum is a base substance in Ayurveda consisting of three species of mirobalan, a group of Himalayan fruit trees: Terminalia Bellirica, Terminalia Chebula and Terminalia Emblica. The substance is widely used in tablets, powders and decoctions as an anti-inflammatory and expectorant remedy. Letre (lunosemia) is often used in infectious disease treatment as an adaptogenic and immunostimulating agent. Shingngar (licorice root) is famous for its antiviral properties. In Chinese medicine, it is considered the main ingredient in lung treatment formulas. Numerous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of licorice in SARS-CoV treatment, mainly of glycyrrhizine (one of the active compounds in licorice). To help in preventing the virus from spreading, Chinese hospitals widely use it, along with astragalus and a number of other herbs. Gundrum (sultanas) is a classic remedy for mild respiratory disorders in the form of tea made of “golden” sultanas.

The guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 contain the following phytotherapy-related recommendations [10]: 1.

2. 3.

4.

Wearing flavoured Chinese herbal sacs (cloves, fine leaf Schizonepeta Herb, Perilla Frutescens, Atractylodes Lancea, cinnamon, Biond magnolia flower, Asarum Sieboldii and Elettaria Cardamomum, 2 g of each component, crushed into powder, put into bags, which are hung around the neck and replaced every 10 days). Recipe for Chinese footbaths: mix Berberis Vulgaris 10 g, Carthamus 10 g and dried ginger 6 g and plunge your feet in the mixture for 20 min. Prescription of Chinese herbs for prevention: Astragalus Mongholicus 12 g, roasted root Atractylodis Macrocephalae 10 g, Saposhnikovia Divaricata 10 g, Cyrtomium Fortunei 10 g, honeysuckle 10 g, dried mandarin or orange peels 6 g, Eupatórium 10 g and licorice root 10 g. Receive broth once a day for 5 days. Medical tea: handrail leaf 6 g, agastache leaf 6 g, dried mandarin or orange peel 9 g, stewed amomom 6 g and 3 slices of ginger. Soak the components in hot water and drink instead of regular tea.

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Phytotherapeutical Treatment at Different Stages of COVID-19 Disease 1. Early stage characterised by cold syndrome. At this stage, clinical manifestations may be as follows: aversion to cold without sweating, headache of generalised severity, pain in the limbs, feel of tightness in the chest and diaphragm, thirst, unsatisfactory loose stool, dark yellow urine. The following tea recipes are recommended at this stage: Perilla frutescens 10 g, Atractylodes lancea 15 g, Angelicae dahuricae root 10 g, dried mandarin orange or orange peel 10 g, Notopterygium root 10 g, Rugosus multicolotis 10 g, Mangnolia medication 10 g, Saposhnikovia divaricata 10 g, coconut zest 15 g, and Tetrapanax papyriferus 10 g. Other prescriptions include decoction inhalations composed in such a way: Atractylodes ovata Thunb 15 g, dried mandarin or orange peel 10 g, Magnolia 10 g, Agastache rugosa medication 10 g, Amomum medium 6 g, Ephedra grass 6 g, Notopterygium root 10 g, Ginger 10 g, Areca catechu nut 10 g, dried cicada Lyristes plebejus 10 g, Bombyx Batryticatus 10 g and rhizome Curcumae longae 10 g. 2. Middle stage mainly caused by viral toxins. At this stage, clinical manifestations may include persistent fever or alternating feel of cold and fever, coughing with little sputum, sometimes intestine bloating and constipation. The therapeutic logic is to reduce fever and intoxication. The recommended inhalation recipe is decoction consisting of 10 g almonds, 30 g gypsum, 30 g Trichosanthes Kirilowii, 6 g rhubarb, 6 g ephedra fried in honey, 10 g Lepidium meyenii seeds, peach kernel 10 g, Amomum Medium 6 g, areca nut 10 g and Atractylodes lancea 10 g. 3. Severe stage is usually characterised by high fever and sometimes severe respiratory disorders. The phytotherapeutic logic here is to detoxify organism and reduce blood stasis. Recommended prescription is as follows: inhalation of ephedra broth with honey 10 g, roasted almonds 10 g, roasted plaster 20-30 g, roasted cicada 10 g, Batriticatus bombix roasted 10 g, turmeric root roasted 10 g, rhubarb roasted with wine 10 g, Baikal scootellaria 10 g, Chinese coptis 5 g, phyllirin 15 g, Angelica sinensis 10 g, peach bone 10 g, paenia root 15 g and belt root 15 g. Ginseng decoction 15 g, aconitin 10 g and turf (Cornus offi cinalis) 5 g. 4. Recuperative stage. Its clinical manifestations may include shortness of breath, increased fatigue, anorexia, nausea, anosmia, agusia, vomiting and liquid stool. The recommended prescription consists of Pinellinae praeparata rhizoma 9 g, dried mandarin or orange crusts 10 g, Codonopsis pilosula 15 g, Radix astragali preparata 30 g, Poria cocos 15 g, Agastache rugosus 10 g and Fructus amomi 6 g. In Chinese complementary medicine, the decoction is also used which includes bamboo leaf 15 g, gypsum 15 g, Codonopsis pilosula 15 g, Ophiopogonis root 10 g, Pinellia 9 g, Cogongrass rhizomes 15–30 g, Phragmitis rhizomes 20 g, liquorice root 10 g, and polished rice 30 g. The publication [11] contains special phytotherapeutic recipes for the treatment of COVID-19 in children under 16. Early stage: (1) Lonicerae Flos, Forsythiae Fructus, Platycodonis Radix, Menthae Herba, Lophatheri Herba, Schizonepetae Spica, Glycine Semen Preparatum, Arctii

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Semen, Phragmitis Rhizoma; (2) Cyperi Rhizoma, Perillae Folium, Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium, Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma, Bupleuri Radix, Cinnamomi Ramulus, Saposhnikoviae Radix, Osterici seu Notopterygii Radix and Rhizoma. Middle stage: (1) Ephedrae Herba, Armeniacae Semen Amarum, Glycyrrhizae Radix and Rhizoma, Gypsum Fibrosum, Amomi Fructus Rotundus, Coicis Semen, Pinelliae Rhizoma Praeparatum, Magnoliae Cortex, Talcum, Stachyuri Medulla Helwingiae Medulla, Lophatheri Herba; (2) Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium, Atractylodis Rhizoma, Magnoliae Cortex, Glycyrrhizae Radix and Rhizoma, Amomi Tsao-ko Fructus, Pinelliae Rhizoma, Agastachis Herba. Severe stage: Gypsum Fibrosum, Rhei Radix et Rhizoma, Armeniacae Semen Amarum, Trichosanthis Fructus, Talcum, Scutellariae Radix, Artemisiae Scopariae Herba, Acori Tatarinowii Rhizoma, Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus, Akebiae Caulis, Agastachis Herba, Forsythiae Fructus, Amomi Fructus Rotundus, Menthae Herba, Belamcandae Rhizoma. Recuperative stage: Ginseng Radix, Atractylodis Macrocephalae Rhizoma, Poria Sclerotium, Glycyrrhizae Radix et Rhizoma, Citri Reticulatae Pericarpium, Pinelliae Rhizoma, Saposhnikoviae Radix, Astragali Radix. In comparison with TCM, an important plant in Indian Ayurvedic medicine is Phyllanthus amarus. Its use reduces the risk of developing COVID-19 respiratory complications, including secondary bacterial pneumonia. Phytochemical studies have shown that it contains many valuable compounds, such as lignans, flavonoids, tannins, polyphenols, triterpenes, sterols and alkaloids. Extracts and compounds extracted from P. amarus have a wide range of pharmacological activity, including antiviral, antibacterial, antiplasmodial, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and diuretic properties [12]. The review [13] presents research data concerning the antiviral activity of another type of the family Phyllanthaceae, viz. Phyllanthus niruri. The antiviral effect of Phyllanthus niruri has been demonstrated in most of the studies reviewed. The results of the survey revealed antiviral (against acute respiratory viruses), hepatoprotective, antioxidant, immunostimulating effects of the studied plant both in animal experiments and in clinical studies. The analysis of literature data has led to the conclusion that Phyllanthus niruri plant extracts are a promising phytotherapeutical resource for the development of complementary medicinal means in the treatment of COVID19. The doctoral dissertation [14] provides detailed information on the effectiveness of Ayurveda remedies from the point of view of evidence-based medicine, both in experimental and clinical studies. Based on the analysis, it is possible to propose an integration of the ancient TCM experience and Ayurvedic practices into modern medicine for more effective prevention and treatment of COVID-19 complications [14]. With all that said, Professor S.N.Turishchev, a well-known Russian phytotherapist, warned that phytotherapy could be only used as an auxiliary means against COVID-19 complications and it could not be regarded as a substitution for a classic allopathic COVID-19 treatment [15].

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Conclusions TCM has accumulated a solid theoretical foundation in ancient plague pandemics and in recent decades it has been able to provide relatively effective treatment of several viral infections by selecting a specific phytotherapeutic drug for each patient based on different syndromes [16]. Phytotherapy has been successfully applied within TCM at various stages of the viral diseases in question. The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China reported that 60,107 confirmed COVID-19 patients (85.20% of the total number of confirmed cases at the very beginning of the pandemic spread in Wuhan, in January–February 2020) were treated with TCM phytotherapeutic agents and in 61% of cases the COVID-19 clinical course was milder than in similar patients untreated with TCM phytotherapeutical techniques [17]. The provision of additional and alternative therapies is still urgently needed to manage patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection who may not be treated by common allopathic procedures (e.g. due to individual medication intolerance), so the experience of using TCM is certainly worth learning from. The fight against the current coronavirus pandemic provides an opportunity to test the true value of TCM in treating emerging severe infectious respiratory diseases. Randomised, double-blind and placebo-controlled studies are the best way to provide the most reliable evidence for phytotherapy in COVID-19 treatment. Randomised controlled clinical trials must be conducted and their results must be presented to assess the efficiency of the TCM in treating COVID-19 and its complications. Thus far, most of the studies have been poorly designed and their results might lead to potential distortions in the assessment of phytotherapy treatment efficacy. We suggest that clinical studies of TCM phytotherapy should use stricter protocols, information disclosure and careful review of results to assess the effect of TCM on COVID-19 clinical course. They should also ensure full compliance with international standards.

References 1. Romanov BK (2020) Coronavirus infection COVID-2019. Saf Risk Pharmacother 8(1):3–8 2. Nikiforov VV, Suranova TG, Chernobrovkina TY et al (2020) New coronavirus infection (COVID-19): clinical and epidemiological aspects. Arch Intern Med 10(2):87–93 3. Drosten C, Günther S, Preiser W et al (2003) Identifi cation of a novel coronavirus in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. N Engl J Med 348(20):1967–1976 4. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X et al (2020) Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China [published correction appears in Lancet. Lancet 395(10223):497– 506 5. Sambukova TV, Ovchinnikov BV, Ganapolsky VP et al (2017) Prospects for using phytopreparations in modern pharmacology. Rev Clin Pharmacol Drug Ther 15(2):56–63 6. Lazareva NB, Ermakova VA (2018) Expectorants: principles of choice and possibilities of modern phytotherapy. Med Advice 15:110–115

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7. Yang Y, Islam MS, Wang J et al (2020) Traditional Chinese medicine in the treatment of patients infected with 2019-new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): a review and perspective. Int J Biol Sci 16(10):1708–1717. https://doi.org/10.7150/ijbs 8. Luo H, Tang QL, Shang YX et al (2020) Can Chinese medicine be used for prevention of COVID-19? A review of historical classics, research evidence and current prevention programs. Chin J Integr Med 32065348 9. Xu X, Zhang Y, Li X, Li XX (2020) Analysis on prevention plan of corona virus disease-19 (COVID-19) by traditional Chinese medicine in various regions. Chin Herb Med 1–7 10. Jin Y, Cai L, Cheng Z et al (2020) A rapid advice guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia. Military Med Res 7(4):2–23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40779-020-0233-6 11. Ang L, Lee HW, Kim A et al (2020) Herbal medicine for treatment of children diagnosed with COVID-19: a review of guidelines. Complement Ther Clin Pract 39:101174. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.ctcp.2020.101174 12. Patel JR, Tripathi P, Sharma V et al (2011) Phyllanthus amarus: ethnomedicinal uses, phytochemistry and pharmacology: a review. J Ethnopharmacol 138(2):286–313 13. Morozova YA, Dergachev DS, Subotyalov MA (2019) Antiviral activity of Phyllanthus niruri (phyllanthaceae). Vegetable Resour 55(4):439–448 14. Subotyalov MA (2014) Traditional ayurvedic medicine: sources, history and place in modern healthcare. PhD thesis, Moscow 15. Phytotherapy against COVID-19. https://rskrf.ru/tips/rassledovaniya/fitoterapiya-protivcovid-19-pochemu-travy-imbir-i-chesnok-ne-pomogut-v-borbe-s-virusom 16. Wen J, Wang R, Liu H et al (2020) Potential therapeutic effect of Qingwen Baidu decoction against corona virus disease 2019: a mini review. Chin Med 19(15):48 17. Du HZ, Hou XY, Miao YH et al (2020) Traditional Chinese Medicine: an effective treatment for 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). Chin J Nat Med 18(3):206–210. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/S1875-5364(20)30022-4

Chapter 9

Fight Against and Live Along: Chinese Experience to Exist with COVID-19 Depei Liu and Sergey A. Komissarov

Abstract This chapter devoted to the analysis of the situation in China consists of two parts. The first one written by a well-known Chinese sociologist, Professor Liu Depei, Major General of PLA (retired), represents a kind of literary essay about the fighting against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus at the very beginning of the pandemic, during the first days and even hours. This personal story may help to evaluate the situation of complete uncertainty on the first days of the pandemic all of us have already forgotten now. But to remember the first moods and the first steps is a very important thing, partly for avoidance of new crises during possible epidemics in the future and the panic associated with them. General Liu looks at the problem from the inside, that helps to understand the worries, moods and feelings of Chinese people during the current COVID-19 pandemic. The second part was written by a Russian sinologist, Professor Sergey Komissarov, who supplemented the work of his friend and colleague with some objective information and figures. In the second part, Prof Komissarov gives us an opportunity to look at the problem from the outside. Taken together, these two parts help to get a picture of the China’s methods to deal with the pandemic and related coronacrisis.

D. Liu Shenyang Sport University, 36 Jinqiansong East Road, Sujiatun District, Shenyang 1101102, China e-mail: [email protected] S. A. Komissarov (B) Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography of the Siberian Brach of Russian Academy of Sciences, 17 Academician Lavrentjev Prospect, Novosibirsk 630090, Russia e-mail: [email protected] Chair of Oriental Studies of the Humanitarian Institute of Novosibirsk State University, 1-2211 Pirogova st., Novosibirsk 630090, Russia Confucius Institute of Novosibirsk State University, 1-2327 Pirogova st., Novosibirsk 630090, Russia © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_9

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Part I. Some Notes About Snowy Realm, Insidious COVID, and People’s Unity1 1. A journey in which we missed the epidemic Chunjie (Spring Festival, New Year according to the traditional Chinese calendar) is the most important festival for Chinese people. Wherever a person lives or works, but a distance of 10 thousand li (equal to 5 thousand kilometers) will not stop him, and at the slightest opportunity he will hurry home to celebrate the Spring Festival together with his close relatives. So, early in the morning of 20 January 2020, three days before the New Year’s Eve, I flew from Guangzhou to Shenyang with my son-in-law and grandson. There we planned to meet with my wife and daughter, who had flown in from Poland, to rest for a day, and then move on to my homeland in the town of Jian, by car. The flight to Shenyang has one stop in Yantai, a city in Shandong Province. It was in the waiting hall of the Yantai airport where I first heard the news on a TV programme about the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan. A feeling of anxiety flashed through my heart, but that time it was not a big shock. In Shenyang, the whole family spent the night at the hotel. After the breakfast, a car that was meeting us arrived, and we quickly hit a road. Already on the way, our friend called us and said that the Shenyang administration had published an order about the epidemic situation. In accordance with this document, starting from 10 am this day, strict control was established over the entry and exit of people and vehicles; now it needs special permission. How lucky! If we were a few hours late with our departure, we could meet with great difficulties. 2. The moments of silence before the fight My small homeland, Jian, is located on the banks of the river along which the border with North Korea runs. It is a small, charming town in the mountains, with a population of barely 100 thousand people. And they all made preparations for Chunjie, in accordance with the established order and good harmony. But on New Year’s Eve, television constantly broadcast the news about a severe epidemic in Wuhan and information that many medics from Guangzhou, Shanghai, Chengdu and other cities flew there on special flights to provide necessary assistance. Residents of Jian were alarmed, though there were no any traces of pandemic in our region. Watching TV-news from Wuhan, people began to prepare anti-epidemic measures. When on the third day of the New Year, in the afternoon, we went to the pharmacy to buy protective masks, we discovered that their price skyrocketed 15 times. Those samples that used to cost two dimes, now were selling for three yuan. We bought one package and returned home. But my family was afraid that this amount would not be enough. So, we returned to the pharmacy to buy some more. But

1

Translated from Chinese by Sergey Komissarov.

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at that time all masks were sold out. We run around all the drug-stores in the town— the result was the same. Then people poured into supermarkets, snapping up food purchases: rice and flour, meat and eggs. Attendants with red armbands appeared at the entrance to the supermarkets; they measured the temperature and checked the pass of each visitor. The pass was issued by local government one for each family, and nobody was allowed to leave a place of living without this document. It was a kind of official response to public panic, and the fulfilment of this decision demanded full compliance from the citizens. At night the air temperature dropped below − 20 °C, but the road control officers, nevertheless, remained highly vigilant. They were formed from government officials and volunteers. The latter consist mostly of the students who came home for vacations and for New Year’s celebrations, as well. Being on duty, all people were covered with snow and walked slowly back and forth to get warmed. But there was not even a hint of laxity; they all swore to protect the peace of their small homeland as if it were the Pure Land Paradise. Wuhan, where the events described began, is the largest city in central China, the largest transport hub on the Yangtze, where river, land and air routes crossed with each others. The largest peak in passengers’ flows occurs some days before Chunjie, the largest Chinese festival. And what a bad luck that the epidemic breaks out at this very time and in this place. One can imagine the catastrophic consequences— like someone dropped a small atomic bomb. But the most frightening thing was that we did not know anything about our new enemy—we did not know where the pathogenic virus was hiding. The only precaution was to measure body temperature in order to find those with a suspiciously high temperature in the vast sea of humans. In practice, this situation created enormous difficulties in the battle against pandemic. But I personally saw the mobilisation of government institutions of different levels and a high degree of self-awareness among citizens—and immediately believed that we would definitely defeat the coronavirus that suddenly hit us. That evening I wrote the poem as follows: Suddenly a big war came. A black haze enveloped half the sky. But worst of all, we don’t know the enemy. The roads are blocked and the cities are under siege. But black clouds will not hide the sun for a long time. China always creates victory from defeat. Our people as strong as the vast ocean. Will soon put an end to the devil’s tricks.

3. Joint efforts and moral unity in counteracting the epidemic The virus has nevertheless reached my native town! On the evening of 30 January 2021, a person who came to Jian from Tianjin 10 days ago was admitted to the hospital with a very high fever. The doctor on duty immediately reported this case to the city’s epidemic prevention and control centre. Since the centre did not have its own diagnostic facilities, the patient was immediately sent in a completely isolated

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ambulance car for examination in the hospital at Tonghua city. Unfortunately, the diagnostics confirmed that this man was sick with the COVID-19 disease. On the same day, the city government decided that, starting at 6 pm, a regime of quarantine, the same as in Wuhan, would be introduced. All residents could not leave their homes for fifteen days, except emergency cases. All food and household goods had to be delivered to each house and left in front of the entrance by specially appointed people. In order to prevent the spread of infection, the couriers did not have to communicate with the customers; residents were notified by phone, after which they themselves took delivery from the door. During the day, at all crossroads at traffic lights, red lights shone without changing, there were almost no pedestrians and cars on the streets. When the night fell, the New Year’s illumination was shimmering with rainbow colours, red gleams, as before, occupied half the sky, but the loose snow covering the avenues remained absolutely undisturbed, not a single imprint of traces was visible on it. Every year during winter vacation, when I came to the north, I went skiing, because this sport was my favourite hobby for many years. But this time I could only look at white snow out of the window—white snow that filled both mountains and valleys, and which I could only dream of. And I expressed my feelings in the poem given below: Calm reigns in the world, Snow covered valleys and mountains. However, a terrible plague is hidden under a triple snowdrift. Every year, rejoicing snowfall, I climbed the mountains to ski. But today, like a bird in a cage, I only sigh sadly, peering into the outside world.

4. Only in the unity of hearts can we win The English scientist Thomas Malthus pointed out in his works that the rate of increase in population on Earth exceeds the rate of increase in means of subsistence. But when such a situation arises, then wars or epidemics break out on the planet and partly reduce population, thus contributing to the achievement of a new equilibrium. War is the action of the people themselves, and epidemics are the action of God. Finding myself in a situation of complete isolation from the world, I also indulged in reflections on the mistakes made by mankind, followed by God’s punishment. Living in the situation of house arrest that we all found ourselves under appeared to be unbearable. Our family, locked in an apartment of about 100 m2 , every day mostly watched TV, with some breaks for meals and sleeping. But people did not fall in despair. All citizens by phone or via Internet encouraged each other, firmly believed in the inevitability of victory. Holy Bible expounds a story about the Noah’s Ark, a ship for the salvation of mankind. In Wuhan, with the support of the whole country, within ten days, a “medical ark” was built, a hospital designed to accept 2,000 patients and having the most modern equipment. Human life is the highest value. Tens of thousands of medical workers arrived in Hubei and Wuhan from all

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regions of China to provide all available help to everyone who got infected with the coronavirus, be it a newborn baby or a ninety year-old man. If there was even the slightest hope, then it could not be abandoned. At the same time, all expenses for maintenance and medical care were borne by the government. In those days, we listened to the Soviet song We all need one victory about the heroic history of the Great Patriotic War, every day. This song inspired us and gave us courage. When the holidays were over, it turned out that, according to the real situation, students could not attend classes. Fortunately, we have Internet, and, for example, my daughter, who is a university lecturer, taught distance classes every day via computer. Sport activities are very important to make life more varied. We have developed several home sport games to overcome the monotony of life and to improve health. In March, when the weather warmed, the ice and snow melted, the epidemic situation in my native places was finally brought under control. We also ended our living in isolation, and could leave the house for walks along the river bank. White clouds in the sky, warm spring breeze, and pure streams of water—the world was really wonderful! People said with a smile that this time the epidemic changed a lot in our habitual behaviour. Firstly, all Communists became soldiers, because party members were sent to the most dangerous and difficult places. Secondly, the guards at the transport gates turned into philosophers, because every day they repeated many times: «Where did you come from and where are you taking your way?»—that seemed the same as the basic questions of philosophy (one could remember Quo vadis?). Third, parents turned into teachers, as schools for children were closed, and the elders in the family became the main mentors for the kids. So we wish the epidemic to go far forever! We wish the planet to regain its former peace and tranquillity!

Part II. Chinese Case: Specific, as Usual China became the first country to go to war against the novel coronavirus and the first country to win this war. Namely, the first patients began to be admitted to hospitals in December 2019, and already on 11 March 2020, President Xi Jinping arrived in Wuhan and announced the victory.2 The beginning of the battle turned out to be associated with the tragic story of Dr. Li Wenliang, who was the first to notice an unusual disease and who expressed his assumptions publicly on 30 December 2019. For this act, he was subjected to administrative punishment, but continued to provide assistance to the sick and on 6

2

Xi Jinping vows victory against COVID-19 in Wuhan // CGTN. 11.03.2020. URL: https://news. cgtn.com/news/2020-03-10/Xi-Jinping-vows-victory-against-COVID-19-in-Wuhan-OKFGZO YDnO/index.html (date of access: 26.03.2021).

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February 2020, he died of COVID-19 at the age of 34.3 The hero doctor has clearly suffered from injustice caused by the desire of local bureaucrats to hide the problem so that nothing should disturb their comfort. Therefore, I believe that it would be prudent for the authorities not only to make an official apology, for which a lot of Internet-users call, but also to establish a special Li Wenliang award, for the great contribution to the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and more broadly for a substantial contribution in studying and treating emerging infectious diseases. Similar cases of hypocritical bureaucracy in PRC were encountered several times further, but on the whole, the Chinese administrative apparatus demonstrated considerable flexibility and efficiency, which became one of the important factors in the struggle against the epidemic. By 20 January 2020, all the main measures were taken to introduce quarantine in Wuhan and restrictions in other areas. Professor Liu Depei remembers in his essay (part I) that he first heard about the epidemic on the way to his hometown of Jian, where he was going with his family to celebrate the New Year (aka Spring Festival, Chunjie) according to the traditional calendar. The fact that the authorities decided to appeal to the population on the eve of this largest and most beloved holiday demonstrates significant determination of the Chinese government and the high degree of trust between the state and its citizens. After all, the restrictions introduced in the midst of preparations for the celebration irritated many people. Nevertheless, the authorities took this unpopular step which saved thousands of lives later. At the same time, the necessary data were transferred to the disposal of WHO and published in the media. Less than a month passed from the recording of the first, strange and uncertain cases, to the development of a whole set of measures to control and overcome the epidemic situation, and even more, the whole campaign was basically completed in less than three months. This indicates a high degree of mobilization of state structures. For comparison, we can recall the situation of administrative collapse in Italy in March 2020, when the PRC had already coped with the first epidemic wave and was able to prevent the second and subsequent ones. The Italian authorities, warned in advance of the impending danger, had a couple of months to prepare, but unfortunately they did not show a flexible and efficient administrative response.4 In connection with this situation, I will also say about the accusations of the Chinese government that it was too remiss in providing information about the epidemic, thereby causing enormous damage to the whole world and, therefore, has to pay financial fines (“contributions”) to the world community. Let us admit hypothetically that at an early stage the Chinese authorities withheld some data on the epidemic. But in all Western countries there are robust scientific analytical 3

Zhou C. Coronavirus: Whistle-blower Dr Li Wenliang confirmed dead of the disease at 34, after hours of chaotic messaging from hospital // South China Morning Post. 7 Feb. 2020. URL: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049411/coronavirus-li-wenliang-doctorwho-alerted-authorities-outbreak (date of access: 26.03.2021). 4 See, f. e,: Besser L. Italy’s coronavirus disaster. At first, officials urged people to go out for an aperitif. Now, doctors must choose who dies // ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation): News. 18.03.2020. URL: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-18/what-went-wrong-with-how-italy-han dled-coronavirus/12062242 (date of access: 26.03.2021).

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centres and institutions that would not only have obtained all the missing information, but would have made significant progress in studying the virus (which, in fact, happened). And if in January–February 2020 it would still be possible (theoretically) to blame the “insidious” Chinese for all the troubles of the world, then doing this in March 2021 was at least rash. China has almost completed its anti-virus campaign by March, and the West was entering the stage of active containment. Let us turn to the numbers. China came out of a fierce fight against coronavirus with relatively modest human losses: 101,612 sick (out of a total of 125,249,769 for the whole world) and 4,840 deaths (out of a total of 2,753,125 deaths); according to the last indicator on 16 March 2021. The human loss in China is less than that in Panama or Lebanon.5 The dynamics of COVID-control in 2021 confirms the stable situation in the country: not a single death since the beginning of the year, and the recorded cases of the disease (in limits from a few to a few dozen people per day) are all associated with those who came from abroad.6 What is the situation in the countries where the fierce anti-Chinese criticism comes from?7 In the United States (population about 4.3 times smaller than China),8 the number of cases is 30,079,282 (296 times more than in China), the number of deaths from COVID-19 is 546,822 (113 times more than in China). Great Britain: the population is about 21 times less, cases—43,229,222 (42.5 times more), deaths— 126,684 (26 times more); France—the population is 22 times less, cases—4,484,659 (44 times more), deaths—93,535 (19.3 times more); Germany—the population is about 17.3 times less, cases—2,744,608 (27 times more), deaths—75,671 (15.6 times more); and even in relatively prosperous Australia—the population is 56 times less than in China, but the number of cases is 29,239 (only about 3.5 times less than in China), and the number of deaths is 909 (5.3 times less, than in China). It can be 5

For greater objectivity, we took the data from: COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). 16.03.2021. URL: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd402994 23467b48e9ecf6 (date of access: 26.03.2021). I consider it necessary to especially note the high level of work of the research fellows of this university, who provided all of us with valuable information with a high degree of reliability [Dong Ensheng, Du Hongru, Gardner, 2020]. 6 Tracking the Epidemic // China CDC Weekly. 16.03.2021. URL: http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/ TrackingtheEpidemic.htm (date of access: 26.03.2021). Using the official data as well, I would like to express my opinion on the popular assertions that since all Chinese statistics are in the hands of the state, they are not credible. There is a certain reason for this attitude. However, modern statistics are based on complex conglomeration of mutually verifiable data. Macro-indicators from different sources are compared with figures for different population groups, sectors of the economy, types of products, etc.; all regularities and limits are clearly recorded. Of course, it is possible to distort individual numbers, but this will immediately become noticeable at adjacent levels. In addition, there are numerous opinions expressed through Internet or other communication channels by foreign specialists working in the PRC, and they are largely consistent with the data published by Chinese government agencies. 7 See, f. e.: Elanger S. Global backlash builds against China over coronavirus // The New York Times. May 3, 2020. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/europe/backlash-chinacoronavirus.html (date of access: 26.03.2021). 8 The Population data did I take from CountryMeters, and I find them quite reliable for this level of research.

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seen that these figures are quite different and demonstrating noticeable disparities in the quality of medical care and in the degree of social responsibility in the leading countries of the West. At the same time the COVID statistics in all of them are worse than in China (per unit of population). And, most importantly, in China, the death counter stopped a year ago, while in other countries it continues to tick. In brief, the leadership of China has saved the lives of millions of its citizens by vigorous measures, and the leadership of the Western countries has not yet solved this most important task. The Chinese language has a chengyu (phraseological unit), which goes back to the canonical book «Men-zi» (1A: 3): 50 steps laughing at 100 steps (五十步笑百 步), that is, soldiers who fled from the battlefield 50 steps make fun of those fighters who fled as much as 100 steps. Mencius used this image in a conversation with the ruler of the Liang State. And the ruler condemned the stupid soldiers. Here we see a picture even more amazing than the great philosopher of ancient world came up with for clarity. Soldiers of one of the armies with minimal casualties repelled the enemy’s attack and, having created a reliable defense, regrouped their forces for a victorious final blow. The fighters of other large armies constantly retreat under the onslaught of the enemy, suffer heavy losses, but cannot or do not want to fight in another way. And they begin their hysterical accusations of their troubles—no, not the enemy, which would be at least for some extent understandable, albeit completely useless—but the neighboring army, which is fighting in the “wrong way.” Here not only Mencius, but Confucius himself would hardly find any sense. I intentionally do not dwell in the details of the origin of the coronavirus. From the latest publications one can see a report of an authoritative WHO commission, which formulated several hypotheses on potential sources of the virus that need additional verification. The only concept that the commission members considered very unlikely was an artificial origin of the virus, allegedly “escaped” from the laboratory in Wuhan [1]. But there were several scientists who did not agree with the conclusion, among them was the Russian virologist Pavel Volchkov. He did not participate in the work of the commission, nor visited Wuhan, but nevertheless he stated that the virus was most probably escaped from the Wuhan’s laboratory, because “obviously, safety measures were not followed.”9 I think such an unfounded accusation of negligence aimed at the Chinese colleagues may seem at least unethical; especially since another Russian virologist Vladimir Dedkov, who participated in the commission, noted that “the laboratory is arranged beyond all praise” and “it is very difficult to imagine that something could leak out of there.”10 It is up to the specialists to decide as to the origin of the novel coronavirus, to be sure. My intention is just to remind that, according to a similar scenario, the acquaintance of mankind with all epidemics of the last few decades took place. 9

The virologist named the most likely version of the origin of COVID-19 // Izvestia. 23.03.2021. (In Russ.). URL: https://iz.ru/1140397/2021-03-23/virusolog-nazval-naibolee-veroiatnuiu-versiiuproiskhozhdeniia-covid-19 (date of access: 26.03.2021). 10 A St. Petersburg scientist from the WHO group shared his impressions of the seafood market in Wuhan // Fontanka.ru. 04.02.2021. (In Russ.). URL: https://www.fontanka.ru/2021/02/04/697 47735 (date of access: 26.03.2021).

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Many conspiracy theories about the spread of AIDS appeared very lately. The major suspect was USA then. These accusations ended, as they should, with nothing, since they had not scientific, but purely opportunistic and populist origin. The same applies to the current situation. Instead of pretty ridiculous demanding trillions of dollars from China, which it will not give anyway, it would be wise to take advantage of the help that the country’s government offers completely openly and free of charge. We are not talking about mass deliveries of sanitary goods and sending teams of experienced doctors to work in countries in need, although a lot is being done here too.11 In particular, the Chinese government proposed to supplement the Belt and Road Initiative with a new project: the Silk Road of Health for the free exchange of information and products to treat and prevent serious emerging infectious diseases, including the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. This proposal was criticized by a number of Western experts.12 However, in this case, the humanitarian nature of the project and the clear benefits for the participating countries turned out to be so obvious that it was not possible to organize a large-scale “campaign against.” But an even more important “product” the collective West may benefit from is China’s accumulated experience in fighting the coronavirus that may be adapted to different conditions. When compiling a general list of reasons that determined China’s victory in the fight against the virus, many factors are cited. Among the most important factors are the moral and ethical principles of the teachings of Confucius. I believe that it was the Confucian paradigm that determined the unity and uniqueness of the Chinese people [2: 289–291] and had a significant impact on many Eurasian neighboring countries and peoples. The imperatives inherent in this ideology, such as humaneness (ren 仁), righteousness (yi 義), trustworthiness (xin 信), ritual propriety (li 禮), wisdom (zhi 知), dutifulness (zhong 忠), courage (yong 勇), and some others, could undoubtedly play an important role in mobilizing society to overcome an epidemic and even pandemic. Usually, such historical and socio-philosophical hypotheses cannot be assessed quantitatively. The factors listed above may be tested only on large masses of the population. According to a number of authors, the data on the epidemiological situation in the countries of East and Southeast Asia, in which many institutions are associated with Confucian 11

Kuo L. China sends doctors and masks overseas as domestic coronavirus infection drop / The Guardian. 19 Mar 2020. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/china-positionsitself-as-a-leader-in-tackling-the-coronavirus; China announces to help 82 countries fight COViD19 // CGTN. 20 Mar 2020. URL: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-20/China-announces-tohelp-82-countries-fight-COVID-19-P1hcQcQKe4/index.html; Full text: Speech by President Xi Jinping at opening of the 73rd World Health Assembly // Xinhuanet. 18.05. 2020. URL: http:// www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-05/18/c_139067018.htm; Leng Shumei. China provides vaccine aid to 53 developing countries, exports to 22 // Global Times. Feb 08, 2021. URL: https://www.glo baltimes.cn/page/202102/1215285.shtml (date access for all: 26.03.2021). 12 See, f. e.: Brînz˘ a A. Some say China’s Belt and Road helped create this Pandemic. Can it prevent the next one // The Diplomat (on-line edition). 02.04.2020. URL: https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/ some-say-chinas-belt-and-road-helped-create-this-pandemic-can-it-prevent-the-next-one (date of access: 01.01.2021).

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norms, just affirm the beneficial effect of applying the basic Confucian imperatives in controlling emerging infectious diseases [3, 4]. The situation with the category of filial piety (孝xiao) is especially striking. The sudden massive influx of infected people during the current pandemic amid a shortage of medications and equipment has re-emerged ethical issues. In some Western hospitals, there have been cases in which care was primarily provided to younger people, since the elderly who fell ill were considered hopeless. And medics in these hospitals were to be reminded about justice and equality. But within the scope of Confucian paradigm, such cases are impossible, since there is the principle of filial piety, which requires unconditional respect for elders. “The ethical dilemma happened in Italy never took place in Taiwan,” a researcher states [5: 42]. Unfortunately, the situation is a little more complicated than it seems to Professor of bioethics of Chungshan Medical University. But one can agree that the call to take care of the elders in the countries of the Confucian circle seems to find greater understanding, in comparison with other countries, especially countries of the Western culture [6]. We believe that one more factor deserves our attention in the containment of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the massive spread of traditional medicine and, in particular, Qigong and Taijiquan, in China and some countries of the Confucian (Sinic) civilization. For many years, millions of people have been practicing these complexes, the main task of which is to cultivate true qi (zhen qi 真气), which in terms of the Western medicine corresponds to the concept of immunity, and at a critical moment, this factor played its role. It is also difficult to quantify. Our assumption may be confirmed by numerous clinical studies published on the pages of authoritative medical periodicals on the beneficial use of various traditional Chinese medicine methods (acupuncture, moxibustion, massage, pharmaceuticals, diet), but, above all, Qigong and Taijiquan, for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 and for rehabilitation after the illness [7–12]. A huge number of publications on the topic in the medical periodicals of the PRC can be added to the list. Combined with each other and with Western medicine approaches, these practices have an impressive healing effect. They can serve as a clear example of the fact that the centuries-old experience preserved by traditions can be in demand at any moment to solve the urgent problems, even the epidemiological problems of our time. But assessing the situation as a whole, it should be recognized that the greatest importance in the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was not the value attitudes and centuries-old traditions themselves, but the modern institutions formed on their basis and socio-economic activity in the previous period, including taking into account the experience of combating several recent epidemics (SARS-CoV, “bird” flu, etc.) [13]. With regard to the PRC, I fully share the conclusions of Professor A. A. Maslov, which he deduced on the basis of his comprehensive complex analysis of China’s development in 2020. He claims that People’s Republic of China managed to get out of the coronacrisis situation “without serious unrest and political upheavals,” and this “demonstrates the stability and success of the country’s economic and political system” [14: 349]. All the social and technological improvements that China actively

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introduced during the fight against the pandemic (accelerated transition to online management of business processes, e-government, telemedicine, remote ordering and delivery of products, etc.) will obviously prove to be effective in the future, during any forthcoming epidemics. It may seem that this chapter is a sort of apologetics for China. In fact, it is hardly so. It is a mere observation—objective as I hope—that in many aspects the pandemic and the coronacrisis were better dealt with by using Confucian doctrines than some Western socio-economic concepts. A thorough examination and understanding of the Chinese experience in containing the pandemic and dexterous administering the country to avoid many European coronacrisis-related uncertainties, is needed now. The Chinese experience may be valuable for both Russia and Europe and to neglect it completely, as some EU bureaucrats call to do, may seem at least reckless. China has already done the necessary analysis for the survival and now it is moving further along its own path—specific, as usual—towards the intended goals.

References 1. Mallapaty S, Maxmen A, Callaway E (2021) “Major stones unturned”: COVID origin search must continue after WHO report, say scientists. Nature 590:371–372. https://doi.org/10.1038/ d41586-021-00375-7 2. Sassin W, Donskikh O, Gnes A, Komissarov S, Liu D (2018) Evolutionary environments: homo sapiens—an endangered species? Innsbruck: STUDIA Universitätsverlag 3. Escobar P (2020) Confucius is winning the Covid-19 war. Asia Times. 13.04.2020. https://asi atimes.com/2020/04/confucius-is-winning-the-covid-19-war. Accessed 26 Mar 2021 4. Rošker JS (2021) Chinese philosophy of life, relational ethics and the COVID-19 pandemic. Asian Philos: Int J Philos Tradit East 31(1):64–77. https://doi.org/10.1080/09552367.2020.186 3624 5. Tai Cheng-tek M (2020) The question of justice in treating the COVID-19 patients. In: Medicine and ethics in times of Corona, edited by M. Woesler and H.-M. Sass. LIT Verlag, Zürich, pp 37–44 6. Wang Q, Xing Y (2020) Ancient wisdom helps in pandemic fight. ChinaDaily.com.cn. 29.05.2020. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202005/29/WS5ed057d0a310a8b2411594e8_ 4.html. Accessed 26 Mar 2021 7. Feng F, Tuchman S, Denninger JW, Fricchione GL, Yeung A (2020) Qigong for the prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation of COVID-19 infection in older adults. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry 28(8):812–819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jagp.2020.05.012 8. Liang F, Dong L, Zhou L, Shi Y, Tian L (2020) Traditional Chinese medicine for symptoms of upper respiratory tract of COVID-19: a protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis. Medicine 99(30):e21320. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000021320 9. Huang J, Wu L, Ren X, Wu X, Chen Y, Ran G, Huang A, Huang L, Zhong D (2020) Traditional Chinese medicine for corona virus disease 2019: A protocol for systematic review. Medicine 99(35):e21774. https://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000021774 10. Law S, Leung WA, Xu C (2021) Tai-Chi and Baduanjin during treatment and rehabilitation of older adults with COVID-19. Asian J Gerontol Geriatr 15(2):96. https://doi.org/10.12809/ ajgg-2020-435-letter 11. Dong E, Du H, Gardner L (2020) An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. Lancet: Infect Dis: Corresp 20(5):533–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-309 9(20)30120-1

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12. Zhao Z, Li Y, Zhou L, Zhou X, Xie B, Zhang W, Sun J (2020) Prevention and treatment of COVID-19 using traditional Chinese medicine: a review. Phytomedicine. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.phymed.2020.153308 13. Pardo RP, Avendano-Pabon M, Chen X, Jing B-j, Matsuda T, Lee J-h, Ting J, Yu K (2020) Learning and remembering: how East Asia prepared for COVID-19 over the years//Global Policy. 27 May 2020. https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/27/05/2020/learning-andremembering-how-east-asia-prepared-covid-19-over-years. Accessed 26 Mar 2021 14. Maslov AA (2020) China 2020: pandemic, society and global alternatives. RIPOL classic, Moscow

Part IV

Social Problems Posed by SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

Chapter 10

Coronacrisis and the End of World Globalisation Wolfgang Sassin

Abstract The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 triggered but not forced the end of globalisation. During the last thirty years, the main task of many politicians was “to make the world a better place,” in order that “the world should be saved.” Excessive level of globalisation used to achieve the goal of “saving” the world in the last decades led to a queer situation. A new member of the known coronavirus family reveals that the affluent European society, equipped with all kinds of social facilities, can only defend itself against the “intruder” with means that would otherwise be taken only in “times of need.” The “reconstruction programmes” to which Eurasian governments have now committed their citizens in order to compensate for civil lockdowns and economic shutdowns will hardly have any effect at all in overcoming a longer-term economic depression. The corona crisis suddenly highlighted what globalisation and digitalisation have accumulated in the form of long-term and exponentially increasing risks and problems by overcoming practically every kind of natural border. The only remaining solution is to give more space to diversity instead of unity and to fight for a well-defined co-existence.

Social Structures—A Phenomenon of Life Par Excellence Social structures have evolved in the animal world, even in the plant world [1–3]. Such structures are therefore not specific to homo sapiens [4]. In the insect kingdoms, there are colonies of bees, ants and termites. They comprise hundreds, thousands to millions of “members” that identify each other and differentiate themselves from competing colonies of the same species, especially in terms of reproduction [5]. They defend their territory and have developed a clear division of labour. It is therefore not without reason that they are referred to as insect states [6]. In fish and birds, under certain conditions, a kind of swarming occurs. This refers to a temporary collective grouping, for example when fish are threatened by much W. Sassin (B) Former Fellow at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and Lecturer at Technical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_10

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more powerful hunters. The same applies to migratory birds which are harassed by birds of prey during their joint migrations. Crows, for example, attack buzzards and falcons together, even if they would otherwise demarcate their territories against each other and thus “protect” their sexual partners [7]. Herds of elephant or gnu follow seasonally changing food sources and cross existentially threatening territories. Smaller groups of elephants and even dolphins even assist each other at birth. Such examples show how different species and even cross-family forms of social organisation exist for different goals and purposes. They influence and even determine behaviour patterns for the benefit of the respective community. But “community” is fluid. It is determined by the “environment”, in which a group of individuals, usually equipped with very different abilities, seek to achieve certain goals together at certain times [8, 9]. The term flock is also applied unspecifically to “groups” that keep mentally superior species, such as flocks of sheep, which a shepherd shapes and uses according to his will.1 The “environment” of the shepherd and that of his “flock” are fundamentally different—a fact, however, that the domesticated sheep cannot recognise. The behaviour of the individual, whether in the wild or within domesticated herds, seems to be shaped both genetically and by learning processes as young animals “grow up” in community with older ones. In certain cases, these exclude particularly aggressive groups, such as adolescent males, from the community. There are therefore any number of examples of inclusive and exclusive behaviour in the animal world [10–13]. Man, i.e. homo sapiensas a social being therefore does not initially represent a special feature in this evolutionary development. The crucial difference between man and the animal world from which he originated, however, is that human societies, like everywhere else, have split up evolutionarily, i.e. essentially in terms of their mental capacities. Those who have outgrown the “normal” human being in the direction of “godly or godlike” have always been highly successful in concealing this fact from the masses: Before God and before the law all are equal, they say. However, laws, as well as the descriptions of transcendent worlds, have always been enacted or made by a few “chosen ones” in history. Codes have never been the result of flock intelligence, but always of a few “chosen ones”. This also applies to the emergence of modern constitutions. In fact, the constitutions of the “new” states that emerged in Eurasia and America in the 18th to twentieth centuries resemble, in one crucial respect, not only the monarchies that replaced them. They go a critical step further. The statute “ruler by the grace of God” was replaced by “the rule of the people”. However, the people may only vote at longer intervals on which representatives determine their future, “representatives” who are immune and practically cannot be brought to justice for the consequences of their actions.

1

Rolf Dieter Lehner. The transition from the swarm to the working herd. Please see Annex.

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Difference Between Voluntary and Forced Alliances The fact that animals do not prevent any member of such a community from moving away from the “herd” or flock by themselves, is of central importance to the understanding social communities. With humans it is different. Here there is no clear distinction between a “voluntarily” created community, which connects individuals with each other, and a “forced” community, which benefits not everyone but only a certain group. There are not only “shepherds,” there are also “human shepherds” [14]. Indications of forced communities are found only sporadically in the animal world. Examples of “capture” for the purpose of exploitation are provided by certain species of ants that keep lice as a kind of milking cattle. Aphids are transported into the crowns of certain plants by “their” ant-herders. A whole colony of ants then lives on their “milk,” much more effortlessly and far less risky than other ant species, which move through the area as hunter-gatherers to make prey. Domestication, one is almost inclined to say, the subduing of other life for one’s own benefit is therefore not a specific feature of man, but it has been perfected by him and successfully applied to ever larger numbers of his own species by means of emotional techniques. The principle of “fear” was and is decisive in this respect. Mao Zedong is said to have used the phrase “Kill the chicken to warn the monkeys” to justify his decisions. This was translated from Chinese into: Kill one, discipline a hundred (of the same kind). The emergence of monogamy, for example, which can be seen most elementarily in the stoning of women for “adultery,” points to such “educational techniques.” It is aimed at the evolutionary subduing of certain parts of one’s own species. This can also be seen in the emergence of harems. The latter go back to competing ruling families who exchanged predominantly female members as hostages in order to insure themselves against expansive attacks by their “male” rivals for power. Membership in some religious denominations or, in modern times, increasingly membership of a state, as evidenced by citizenship, show characteristics of such forced memberships. One can either avoid them only by paying massive fines, such as the “exit tax,” or one even risks a fatwa if one renounces one’s faith. The term herd, e.g. in German, linguistically blurs the fundamental difference between a community created by birth and an abstractly constructed and artificially created community. It does not distinguish between voluntary and forced.2 Being born into the One Humanity should oblige the individual to serve all those who are currently living and those who will come [15–17]. This is essentially a reaction to the Second World War, which revealed not simply a racist but at its core a qualitative division, more precisely a branching of the species into master race and subordinate race, a phenomenon that has existed since time immemorial. In fact, there is hardly a more highly developed human culture that has not kept slaves.

2

The English term drove is derived from “to drive” and refers to a flock that is held together by sheepdogs rather than directly by a shepherd.

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The current ethical superelevation of humanity, canonised in the catalogue of human rights, reduces, quasi by decree, the independently thinking and acting individual to a herd animal, the homo billionis [18]. Yet the homo deus seems to have been among us for a long time and to have made use of technical progress to mentally control billions with the help of modern media, according to the motto ascribed to Mao Zedong: “Kill one and discipline a hundred.” In a more elegant form, this now boils down to the ability to process information electronically, which has been developed in private or in sub-sectors of the state, and which exceeds the capabilities of “analogue brains” by many powers of ten and can therefore no longer be controlled by the herd animal “voter” [19]. So what does the bite into the apple of cognition, the emergence of the individual as the centre of critical thinking, as the origin of border transgressions, of abstraction and fantasies such as freedom, equality, justice, contribute to the change and expansion of these evolutionary structured communities, which homo sapiens shares with almost all kinds of living beings, but which he has meticulously developed into what he calls a politically understood community? The apex of this development is the transformation of the concept of homo sapiens into that of the One Humanity, which is controlled and directed by a small elite. This elite secretly separates itself qualitatively, i.e. mentally but not physically, from homo sapiens in order to domesticate it, i.e. to keep it under mental control.

From Bellwether to Domination of Society of Inequalities A swarm denotes a temporary grouping of individuals triggered by external threats. This is always the case when searching for food or prey. For this requires the crossing of new, mostly still unknown territories. In order to achieve such desirable goals, either remembered or speculatively conceived, experienced leaders are an advantage for the group. As a mentally anchored institute, they lead to the internal organisation of a larger group of “equals” that can be individually distinguished, up to a swarm with similar but foreign members. Swarms that are too large easily break up into smaller units due to marginal internal and external “events.” Examples of this are huge flocks of starlings that settle on trees for the night, each of which can only “house” a small part of such a flock. The emergence of classes and castes of human beings in which mental as well as physical characteristics play a decisive role, starting with dominant male over adaptable and vulnerable female mainly because of constraints due to the birth and upbringing of the offspring up to infantile and developmentally lagging or retarded, is not only promoted by the bite into the apple from the tree of knowledge, but has almost inevitably become a characteristic of homo sapiens. At some point in the course of “growing up,” this bite leads to the separation of the ego from the group that has carried it up to now, a process that necessarily leads to redomestication into a society. The latter is a number of people who are ordered

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and held together according to abstract rules, according to law and order, and who do not have to be held together by birth and subsequently by family ties. Societies are always caught between the desire for cohesion of the “less fit” and the desire for differentiation and a special status of the “fit.” On a mental level this amounts to nothing less than the splitting of a species. This splitting of sapiens cannot be determined biologically, e.g. anatomically. Religions were created to hold such heterogeneous groups together precisely because of the emergence of individual, independent thinking and the associated development of different views of man and the world. All of them, without exception, have transcendent “super-beings” in common, which are supposed to determine the fate of allegedly identical people. Religions establish hierarchies, which they first use themselves as an organisation. Who else knows from the believers, even from the members of cults and priesthoods, how to reach Nirvana, Heaven or Hell. It is no different with political concepts and ideas. Starting from assumptions about fateful interventions “from above” in the life of communities, which were attributed to gods before the advent of natural sciences, the idea has developed of having to intervene “from above” for the benefit of all, this time by “first among equals.” Ideologies, ideas of ethical and moral “pioneers” who have to protect the One World including nature, even to control it in detail, are in this sense no different from religious beliefs.

Domestication of “Herds,” Their Immanent Intelligence and Emergence of Hierarchical Structure The annexed note by Rolf-Dieter Lehner Transformation of a Flock into a Productive Flock, a Drove illustrates the social techniques of hierarchical formation and the representation of paternal care on the one hand and regulative violence on the other cannot be recognized by the flock as a combined strategy. No ruler who wishes to remain so personally carries out a punitive measure to be authorised by him, which is indispensable for disciplining of the flock. For this he has “judges,” prison staff, in special cases even executioners, who carry out death sentences and are not without reason kept in social anonymity. The “sovereign” himself, on the other hand, reserves the right to grant amnesties and thus contribute to the “pacification of the herd.” It is this organisation and public display of power that makes it necessary to look at the emergence and limitations of herd intelligence. “Herd intelligence” is the result of information processing and communication in small, medium and large groups. And it differs fundamentally depending on the size of these groups. The larger a group, the smaller is its “intelligence.”

If you consider how the Zeitgeist has gone astray over the past 30 years, you cannot feel sorry for the ordinary citizen alone. The same is true for those politicians who once took up office to make the world a better place. Driven by a generation that dwarfed the blindness and narcissism of the 1968 movement, public opinion has been manipulated in such a way, predominantly in Germany, that the vast majority

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now believe “the world must be saved.” No politician who wants to keep his office and be re-elected can really escape this mental pandemic that has arisen as a result. It all started here in Europe with the idea that the Euro had to be saved by building up debts which had to be shouldered collectively—and that always means by those who work the hardest. Then came the idea that nuclear energy was a bad thing, and in fact too expensive, if the costs of reprocessing and final storage were correctly calculated. Sun and wind would be sustainable and could “save the climate” for the price of a scoop of ice cream per month. Finally, the idea of having to “develop” the world was apparently logically inevitable. Because of a too slow progress in the “development” of the Third World the door had to be opened for all the burdened on this planet to a social system that these same 68ers had already fought for once. The right to participate in something that the majority neither created nor could sustain should all of a sudden belong to all people. Psychologically, this is a kind of jump over reaction. One’s own individual deficits are not only pushed aside by the demand that “the state” should help others who are supposedly even more incapable. This puts one in the position of a morally and ethically, even God-pleasing person. What a progress! And now, all of a sudden, another virus from the SARS family is revealing that the rich affluent society, equipped with all kinds of social facilities, can only defend itself against this virus with means that are otherwise taken in “emergencies". The comparison with martial law is partly justified. What is still missing is actually only the power of the state to conscript “citizens” for active military service against Corona. In which “eco-civilisational” territory almost eight billion people suddenly find themselves, of whom at least a third cannot even supply themselves with the most elementary things on their own, even academic circles endowed with emotional blinkers are not able to recognise this. This is true for certain institutes in Germany, it is especially true for those in the UN who, for more than 70 years, have been turning precisely this leapfrog reaction into a global programme [20–22]. We, i.e. our media-generated collective consciousness, something that some sociologists define as herd intelligence, believe in the solidarity of the herd. But the view of the territory in which WE all move is obscured by our families, by our neighbours with whom we share the underground or other scarce public infrastructures. The view from the inside of an urban mass society became not just impossible. The much bigger problem is the communication problem of a “community,” which would have to share individual perceptions and subsequently develop a common consciousness. Beyond even four, sometimes three individuals, there is no possibility to find a common assessment of a serious problem within a limited period of time and to share this assessment without contradiction or at least without strong doubts of individual members of this group. Even larger families therefore need a hierarchical structure in order not to fall apart. What we are now experiencing is therefore a kind of litmus test for the idea of democracy, i.e. the rule of a people, which should

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implicitly consist of independent and, in an existential sense, free individuals with unobstructed sensory information. Once the “costs” of the current “relief” measures have to be distributed with the aim of saving human lives, It will soon become clear that the “herd” has only evaded an unpleasant obstacle and does not realise what kind of territory it is being driven into and what price it has to pay. For it is by no means clear that those “reconstruction programmes” to which EU governments have committed their citizens in order to compensate for lockdowns will have any effect at all in overcoming a longer-term economic depression. Here too, the maxim dominates: “old jobs” must be protected from being lost. The masses are to be persuaded to consume without being able to compensate for the loss of production. It would make more sense to consume less if less work could be done. But what are some countries doing in the EU? They require transfer payments to maintain a kind of dolce vita. How can this be done if a few economies should actually start up again in 2021? What will happen to the euro, or to the growing national debts of countries which, even before the advent of COVID-19, were already feeding their social structures with ever more debt? The following two diagrams attempt to make the problem of the rulers and their dependence on the “leading media” more understandable (Fig. 10.1). If one assumes the trivial task of moving together as a group in an unknown and potentially dangerous terrain, then even with only two individuals an informational division of labour is required. The one in front, the vanguard, explores a possible

Fig. 10.1 Transition from individual to collective perception

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route, the second forms the rearguard and thus protects both from an “attack” from behind. If the group becomes larger, i.e. 4 persons in Fig. 10.1, then lateral attacks are also easier to detect. For the group, however, a doubling of the perceptual horizon of the group of two requires a six-fold increase in the mutual exchange of information. This quickly becomes a perception problem as the group size increases. The second plot (Fig. 10.2) makes it clear why, for quite natural reasons, an enlargement of a group that is jointly pursuing a specific goal necessarily results in a herd, because its individual members do not have the possibility of “scanning” the terrain in which they are travelling together. Also the communication between all members about what the “outer members” perceive does no longer work. A hierarchy inevitably develops in the herd or swarm. The herd follows a leader. When it grows larger it follows an increasingly differentiated inner “social leadership structure” with leaders or alpha-beings that support each other “loyally.” This works until the herd begins to panic because only an alarm signal and no assessment of the actual threat can be communicated quickly enough between the members and also not among the leadership. Currently we may observe such herd panicking in regard to SARS-CoV-2 threat to humanity, instigated by world media and some governmental officials. The decisive factor in such a situation is the fact that the “herd” saves itself by leaving the weakest members further behind and making them easy victims of an attacker, be it a single “predator” or a pack. So it is not the alpha animals that save the herd, but to return to modern human behaviour: The cannon fodder. In the Old

Fig. 10.2 Transition from group perception to herd organisation

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Roman Empire this idea was expressed in the form of many “truths.” Today one would speak of slogans.

Growing Complexity of Tasks of a Community and Their Consequences Division of labour emphasises the assessment of the benefits that specialists bring to the Community. Self-interest, self-initiative, i.e. entrepreneurship, is increasingly coming into conflict with behaviour patterns to be defined only for elementary needs: The Ten Commandments were created as a reduction of many hundreds of individual regulations of the Hebrew caste of priests in order to “practice religion at all” in the ever more complex everyday life of the spreading civilisations in the area around the Mediterranean. Thus the modern God-state entered the world. The same applies to the rule of the people and the inevitable trend towards socialism and a planned state economy. In this, as in every capitalist enterprise, it is not the people who determine what and how is produced. The more complex the task to be accomplished, the stronger the hierarchical structure. This begins in the family, in the household and when bringing up children. The more highly developed a culture is, the more complex a civilisation is, the less it can survive with religious, i.e. simplistic value systems. Hierarchy, separation of powers, domestication of the individual, strict command structures, punitive measures, prisons, insane asylums, to isolate and marginalise the undomesticated. Examples of this are not only the re-education as a socialist human being as a continuation of education, but in a small way already the existence of admissions to road traffic, as a medical doctor, lawyer, etc. The remaining unresolved problem: From what size a society, which becomes over-exponentially complex as it grows, can it only be held together by principles which must be described as elements of religious edifices. This is the beginning of the mostly abrupt and sudden relapse to an evolutionary stage which already shows itself as a “state” in the case of insects. King and executioner, judge and law enforcement officer, today the big brother, the chairman of the council, his finance and environment ministers, the central bankers and their implementing power organs the banks, the self-monitoring bureaucracy, they alienate what today is called society and was once a living community of people who, like animals, got to know each other and their behaviour in simple everyday situations and so learned to assess each other. The almost explosive increase in knowledge and the ability to transform it into a means of power that began in the middle of the twentieth century can only be explained as a result of a globally perceived existential mutual threat to both NATO and the Warsaw Pact. In fact, this man-made power play was only kept under control by arms limitations and silent cooperation between the CIA and KGB [23].

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Today, the domestication of Europeans is justified by means of the European Union which was not established democratically at all, but only through bodies such as Constituent Assemblies. This process developed in tiny steps, so that the “citizens” did not notice what actually happened.3 New threats are being launched publicly, such as a dramatic climate change and along with it an inevitable redistribution of the planet and its natural resources. Contrary to reality, economic science assumes that citizens act coolly and rationally, but in a highly emotional pursuit of their individual happiness.4 In times when services and information now account for a larger share of economic exchange between people than physical goods, the statistical foundations on which economic theories are based are failing.5 Migration as a “human right” not only uproots the species homo sapiens. With this utopia, it separates mankind once and for all from the nature from which he was born and to which he has culturally adapted in a very special way. However, climate or nature are not competitors for power, even if they are presented as a deadly threat to humanity as a whole. It is not possible to agree on arms limitation treaties with them. Nor are there any NGOs that, like secret services, advise well-meaning presidents or presidents of councils or decision makers on what the other side, i.e. climate or nature, can reasonably be expected to do before they attack.

Limits of Community As the size of a community grows, the number of hierarchical levels that allow to control it, increases too. The amount of dissuasive and punitive groups necessary to limit insubordination grows disproportionately. Society begins to branch out into ruling classes, their loyal supporters and the alientaded masses. With the size and complexity of such a society, the amount of administration, dispute settlement and redistribution of wealth increases and is accompanied by a decrease in actual benefits. 3

Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission until December 2019: “We decide on something, then put it in the room for discussion and wait a while to see what happens. If there is no great shouting and no riots because most people do not even understand what has been decided, then we will continue—step by step until there is no turning back”. quoted by Dirk Koch in The Brussels Republic. Der SPIEGEL 52/1999 (27.12.21999) p.136. and “When things get really serious, you have to lie.” at an evening event on the Euro Crisis in April 2011. quoted in spiegel.de. 4 The preambel to the Declaration of Independence of the United States of America from July, 4th, 1776 states: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.” 5 Thomas Straubhaar, Professor of Macroeconomics, University of Hamburg: Das BIP hat versagt. (The GDP has failed.) Die WELT 23.9.2020.

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General growth is therefore a similar edifice of belief as the elevation of the hereafter with ultimately only assumed abilities of spirits and gods and in the end only one single ultimate cause from which everything was created and determined. To achieve ever more growth, be it demographic, material or intellectual, “spiritual” leaders are also needed. It is similar with peace, for which one must fight and which ultimately costs as much to maintain as war, which must be avoided. The attempt of the two superpowers during the “Cold War” to arm each other to death proves this beyond doubt. The overstretching of the “surviving” victor and finally the inevitable return to America First! are an undeniable example of these mechanisms of community building and their limitations.

The End of Globalisation—Triggered But Not Caused by the SARS-COV-2 Virus Are humans infected by the novel coronavirus simply sick (in the sense of a flu) or must they be isolated and excluded from the healthy community in the same way as cattle affected by mad cow disease? What is different about the spread of coronavirus from that of other infectious diseases, particularly leprosy caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Leprosy was already known in ancient Egypt. How did the archaic societies of that time deal with people and how do they deal today with the risks associated with the pathogens ranging from rhinitis, influenza to tuberculosis or HIV? In these cases, who is treated like a leper, i.e. someone who has to make the fact of his illness publicly known, in the case of leprosy for example through a leprosy rattle, or in the case of Corona through the intended announcement of his social contacts via a Corona app, which should be as comprehensive as possible? To “expose” someone, i.e. to exclude him or her from the public space that groups of people have created in order to communicate with each other, to trade, to gather, to celebrate, to make common decisions or even to create “sacred” places where people can be buried and gods worshipped, it raises the question of what a person can actually be excluded from. The public space is a highly complex good, an entity that cannot be simply defined geographically. Even Almende, i.e. those areas of land that a small number of farmers are allowed to share with their cattle, be it pastures or forests, but which are denied to nomadic herdsmen, makes this clear. The distinction between private and public is a central part of culture. Cultures of hunter-gatherers, of farmers and cattle breeders, of analogue urban and even more so of digital global forms of civilisation differ fundamentally in the way they distinguish between private and public. And it can no longer be defined one- or two-dimensionally as in the geographical sense. All these demarcations change according to the nature of the threat to a particular community, and they inevitably interfere with the interpretation of what is declared

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to be “human rights,” even the very mark of the human being, namely his dignity. A general state of emergency, and even more so a state of war, alters the boundary between private and public, between property and its “public obligation”, between the inalienable dignity of the human being and inevitable collateral damage in the defence of these very different and, for this very reason, highly relative VALUES. What is the current situation regarding the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic declared by the World Health Organisation (WHO), a risk posed by people carrying a virus whose health effects are not yet sufficiently known? There is no doubt that, as with other viral or bacterial diseases, the severity of the course of the disease and the potential active and passive risk of infection vary greatly from one individual to another. This concerns the abilities of the own immune system, which is influenced by other diseases as well as the social behaviour of a potential “virus producer.” The same applies to a potential new “host,” which is essential for the spread of a virus population. The discussions about superspreaders, as well as the idea of herd immunity, prove this. The state, whether in Germany or elsewhere, suddenly claims that it has the primary responsibility to provide comprehensive care for those who are excluded from public life by its regulations and laws. However, this “public life” does not only require freely accessible infrastructures such as roads, local public transport and all kinds of communication networks. It also includes schools, hospitals, and ultimately the entire state administration. The dilemma of the “state” with regard to the complicated demarcations between private and public and also between values that are always dependent on threats is not taken into account. In an almost populist manner, it declares itself to be the guarantor of its citizens’ security and declares a kind of state of emergency in the war against COVID-19. To this end, he “mobilises” nursing staff, the staff in doctors’ practices and hospitals and demands that they expose themselves to a significantly increased risk of infection, because the nature and procedure of this new “terrorist” COVID-19 is still largely unknown and the means of detecting and combating it have yet to be developed. The modern “welfare” state, which bases its justification, indeed its “logical” existence on emotions, not on what was already overcome with the Renaissance and the Enlightenment in terms of medievalism, is thus faced with a dilemma that it cannot solve. Corona makes this suddenly and clearly visible. The tricky situation is easier to understand if one asks the inverse question: Must, or should the individual exclude others from his physical contacts through “social distancing”? Should he treat them like lepers because he could be infected, should he deny them access to his circles, to his family, on suspicion, and thus independently decide the line between private and public? Reasons are given for state recommendations and punitive interventions in the personal behaviour with case numbers that are statistically ridiculously low. In the first 10 months of 2020, around 10,000 people in Germany died from or with COVID-19, most of them over the age of 80. It is clear that 60% of the deaths reported by the RKI (Robert Koch Institute) to date relate to the period between the end of March and mid-April 2020. At that time, the optimal treatment options were obviously not yet known. The health system had to have yet to learn.

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Comparing 1,700 deaths attributed to the corona in the 15th calendar week in mid-April with the deaths for the years 2016 to 2019, we may conclude that there is an increase of around 10%. It is important to note that the increase in mortality at the beginning of March in the years 2016 to 2020 due to waves of influenza and also due to a heat wave in the summer is much higher than the corona cases of this first wave [24]. This raises the crucial question: How can the loss of life time, i.e. the reduction in statistical life expectancy caused by corona be compared with the loss of quality of life that is inflicted on all those who are impeded in their freedom and pursuit of happiness by state-imposed restrictions? Is there any way to evaluate life time separately from quality of life? It is enough in this context to look at the entries in obituaries, which say, for example, “When God saw that the way was too long and breathing too difficult, he put his arm around you and said, Come home!” Just in passing, after many years of controversial discussions, it should be pointed out that in Germany, too, the right to make an individual decision to end a life no longer worth living with professional help was finally granted. It is not the task of the state to scare its citizens in order to protect them from something they have to cope with and decide for themselves. Those who expose themselves to risk, whether through the consumption of harmful substances, ranging from nicotine, alcohol and drugs to excessive calorie intake, not forgetting the practice of dangerous sports and other adventures that provide a kick—the red-light milieu being a good example—must bear the consequences themselves and cannot pass them on to the general public, i.e. to the state. Apparently, the only way to win enough voters and political positions is to promise to help, no matter why someone is in need. What kind of societies have emerged in which the majority of “citizens” not only tolerate such practices, but make them possible in the first place through their electoral behaviour? The emotionally motivated desire to help and support others in their need is a private matter for each individual citizen. It is going too far to make free citizens slaves of a welfare industry that not only cares for the sick but also degrades more and more people to beggars, because their productivity is dramatically reduced by this very state. The coronacrisis makes it clearer than ever before what consequences the proclamation of “universal human rights” actually has for citizens: they restrict their freedom. Beyond a certain point, they undermine them and make him a pariah if he does not submit to the dogmas of the well-meaning. This is precisely what leads to the internal disintegration and splitting of societies, the more likely it is that the larger they are “conceived.” The postulated One World is no longer convincing. “Fragments” are beginning to fight over territories, over resources, even over values. How could private and public be distinguished from each other in such a postulated “United World”? A world community that is gripped by a pandemic and through this pandemic becomes perceptible to the individual in the first place, it turns into a dictatorship. The latter can take no account of local, regional, genetic and immunological differences that have made the earth’s ecosystem and the evolution of life on

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it possible in the first place. The “One World Community” is a mental impasse from which there is no turning back without serious damage. At least for Christians, the situation that has developed in 2020 may bring back memories of the first Paradise. Lucifer’s faith I am like God! harassed the Adam and Eve’s souls. There was a revolution in paradise. Hell developed from the effort to achieve even more “love” than God was giving to the first humans and the endeavour of the archangel Michael to prevent exactly that. Man’s inability to recognise his ambivalent nature and his limits probably led hermits to withdraw from the hustle and bustle of the cities into the desert. The idea of the One and Only God and the devil gave rise to the ideas related to envious and malevolent gods. From then on, man stood between heaven and hell, interlinking the two poles. It is time to give more space to diversity instead of unity and to fight for a welldefined coexistence instead of a general coexistence, the sooner the better. Not only biological but also mental monocultures, like a global welfare state, inevitably prepare their own demise. If there is a positive effect of SARS-CoV-2, this is it: Corona suddenly highlights what globalisation and digitalisation have accumulated in the form of longterm and exponentially increasing risks and problems by overcoming virtually all kinds of natural barriers. This should be kept in mind every morning by all those who now want to save the whole world and who try to spread their sermons with the help of omnipresent media; self-proclaimed elites who issue regulations and laws and set “forces of law and order” in motion to enforce “human rights and human dignity” with “gentle,” if necessary even with brute force. Throughout history, this circular process is evident time and again. Every form of fundamentalism, every sect, every edifice of belief frozen in dogma always leads first to a revolt with dramatic consequences, then to a reformation, and finally the game with power is repeated with more subtle instruments and with ever more comprehensive human demands.

The Coronacrisis Demonstrates that the Paradise We are Striving For, Life in the One Humanity, Surrounded By Fellow Human Beings Whom We Must Love, Whether We Like It Or Not, Mutates Into A Mental Prison And Finally Into Physical Hell In fact, we are in the process of denying those elementary characteristics and behaviours that made us homo sapiens in the first place in evolution. We are the evolutionary product of very small communities that have necessarily distinguished themselves from competitors in terms of reproduction and also in terms of the defence of very different territories that have forced us to specialise and differentiate.

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Making Humanity Absolute Makes Every Free Individual a Slave Democracy whose values are not related and limited to its own members and their “culture” is a particularly perfidious form of dictatorship. For one can rebel against a dictatorship, but not against an all-encompassing humanity, without being declared “no-man.”

Annex Rolf Dieter Lehner The Transition from Swarms to Domesticated Herds: The visible and invisible division of functions in the domestication of “social beings” In evolutionary terms, a “swarm” is a natural life form. Essentially, a swarm of bees, i.e. a biological collective, is comparable to a colony that acts productively and meaningfully. The reason is the state, therefore the conservation of the species, represented by the queen. The degenerated form of a swarm, is the domesticated herd. The operator is an anonymous power. It has delegated the shepherd to lead the flock to feed and drink and to slaughter one or more of the lambs if required. The shepherd, in turn, has trained a policeman, the sheepdog (Fig. 10.3). He drives the flock to pasture under the supervision of the shepherd. Within the flock, the shepherd is assisted by the leading sheep (bellwether), sometimes a goat, according to the will of the shepherd.

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Fig. 10.3 A typical “drove” that is being pastured by human and canine shepherds

References 1. Daly D (2011) Structures of virtue and vice. New Blackfriars 92:341–357 2. Mascaro O, Gergely C (2014) Human infants’ learning of social structures: the case of dominance hierarchy. Psychol Sci 25(1):250–255 3. Wohlleben P (2015) Das geheime Leben der Bäume: Was sie fühlen, wie sie kommunizieren— Die Entdeckung einer verborgenen Welt. Ludwig Verlag, München 4. Baumeister RF, von Hippel W (2020) Meaning and evolution: why nature selected human minds to use meaning. Evol Stud Imaginative Cult 4(1):1–18 5. Parrish JK, Edelstein-Keshet L (1999) Complexity, pattern, and evolutionary trade-offs in animal aggregation. Science, New Series 284(5411):99–101 6. Thomas K (1996) Zooarchaeology: past, present and future. World Archaeol 28(1):1–4 7. Bode NWF, Jamie WA, Franks DW (2011) Social networks and models for collective motion in animals. Behav Ecol Sociobiol 65(2):117–130 8. Feinberg R, Nason P, Sridharan H (2013) Introduction: human-animal relations. Environ Soc 4:1–4 9. Kidner D (1999) Nature and human intelligence. Hum Ecol Rev 6(2):10–22 10. Bouzanis C (2016) Ontogenesis versus morphogenesis towards an antirealist model of the constitution of society. Hum Stud 39(4):569–599 11. Pierce BD, White R (1999) The evolution of social structure: why biology matters. AcadManag Rev 24(4):843–853 12. Jann R (1994) Animal analogies in the construction of class. Ninet Century Stud 8:89–103 13. Kleinhappel T, et al (2016) Animal welfare a social networks perspective. Sci Prog (1933-) 99(1):68–82 14. McMullen S (2013) Can economists speak for farmed animals? J Anim Ethics 3(2):174–181 15. Sassin W (2019a) Deja vue? Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020210216. https://hdl. handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.2.020210216 16. Sassin W (2019b) Er-Schöpfung der Schöpfung, oder Eine neue Kulturstufe in der Entwicklung des homo. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020510203. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500. 12656/thebeacon.2.020510203

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17. Sassin W (2020) Behindert die Demokratie die Nachhaltigkeit in Eurasien? Eur Crossrd 1(2):020000201. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/eurcrossrd.1.020000201 18. Sassin W (2012) Gesellschaften in Transformation—Vom homo sapiens zum ‘homo billiones’. GadF 400(3):6–8 19. Harari YN (2016) Homo Deus. A brief history of tomorrow. Har-per Perennial, New York 20. Donskikh O (2019) Horror Zivilisationis, oder Horror der Subjektivität. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020110205. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.2.020110205 21. Gnes A (2019) Festival culture as a means of preserving vital differences in the ideologically equalised world. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020310005. https://hdl.handle.net/20. 500.12656/thebeacon.2.020310005 22. Sassin W, Donskikh O, Gnes A, Komissarov S, Depei L (2018) Evolutionary environments. Homo Sapiens—an endangered species? Studia Universitätsverlag, Innsbruck 23. Wallerstein I (1993) The world-system after the cold war. J Peace Res 30(1):1–6 24. Sonderauswertung zu Sterbefallzahlen des Jahres 2020. DeStatis Statistisches Bun-desamt. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Sterbefaelle-Leb enserwartung/sterbefallzahlen.html

Chapter 11

New Type of Social Structure, Stratification and Relations in Post-COVID Society Oleg A. Donskikh

Welcome to postnormal times. It’s a time when little out there can be trusted or gives us confidence. The espiritu del tiempo, the spirit of our age, is characterised by uncertainty, rapid change, realignment of power, upheaval and chaotic behaviour. We live in an in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have yet to be born, and very few things seem to make sense. Ziauddin Sardar

Abstract SARS-CoV-2 pandemic changes society in a dramatic way: new types of social structure, stratification and relations emerge. In this Chapter, we isolate seven features of the “interim” COVID-related social order that threatens to become a new social normality in many countries, including Western countries and Russia. 1. In contrast to natural and artificial disasters, epidemic situations do not unite, but divide people. In the situation of global uncertainty caused by the current pandemic, anxiety and, accordingly, suspicion of people grows. 2. The tendency of population’s distrust towards authorities increases. 3. Feelings of isolation, uncertainty, stress, and heightened anxiety negatively affect family relationships, as evidenced by the rise in divorce rates. 4. The search for the guilty, which is a usual tendency during epidemics and pandemics, poisons international and interpersonal relations. 5. The transition of the education system to predominantly distance (online) learning leads to a decrease in the quality of education and to a surge of learning imitation activities. 6. The emergence of advanced computer technologies of social control is now justified in a number of countries by the need to track the movements of infectious patients. The development of surveillance and control technologies is on the rise. 7. The new type of society implies new principles of social stratification, social structure and social relations, that would be based upon new inequality. O. A. Donskikh (B) Head of Department of Philosophy and Humanities, Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Kamenskaya St 56, Novosibirsk 630099, Russia e-mail: [email protected] Department of Philosophy, Novosibirsk State Technical University, 20 Prospekt K. Marksa, Novosibirsk 630073, Russia © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_11

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Introduction The pandemic influenced various aspects of social reality and made our future rather uncertain. The specificity of any epidemic is dissimilar with such national troubles as a war or natural disaster, because a disease does not unite people, but separates them. This is typical for the pandemics of the past that occurred repeatedly in human history, starting with the Athenian epidemic of 430 BC. A passage from Thucydides reads People broken by misfortune, without knowledge what to do, have lost their respect for divine and human laws… Neither fear of gods, nor human law could keep people from crime any longer, since they saw that everyone perishes in the same way. Therefore, it did not matter, to honour the gods or not. On the other hand, no one was sure that he would live to see the time when he would be punished for his crimes, according to the law. After all, a much more serious judgment made by fate, was already hanging over his head. While it had not yet been fulfilled, a man naturally wanted to live his life in full [1: 87].

The cult of ancestors ceased to be respected, cynicism spreaded, and ultimately the epidemic led to the moral degeneration of the Athenians. Unlike such disasters as tsunamis or unusual heat that usually lead to massive forest fires, or earthquakes, the causes of disease are hidden from the human eye, they are dissolved in water and air. A Russian poet Fyodor Tyutchev wrote about malaria: I love God’s wrath, this Evil! Invisible, mysterious, poured through everything: in the flowers, in the glass-clear stream, in the rainbow-rays, in the very sky of Rome [2].

It is this absence of a visible or tangible cause of the epidemic that creates a particular sense of danger. The personal perception of the epidemic may vary, in contrast to catastrophic situations where the causes are obvious. The general characteristics of disasters, as they are listed by the World Health Organisation, coincide with the epidemic situation only in one point, the increased attention of the mass media [3]. The society is divided into those who do not believe in the pandemic at all or believe that it was invented for some unknown purpose, and those who believe in the reality of the disease to different extent. The constantly changing personal attitude towards the pandemic is one of the key features of the current COVID situation. Accordingly, the question we ask in this chapter, concerns the moral aspect of the COVID pandemic. We will discuss the change of people’s relationships and their mutual psychological and social perception.

Situation of Uncertainty A situation of incessant uncertainty arises as the process is not completed. All judgments are made from within, since everyone may be in danger, and it is fundamentally

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impossible to rise above the situation in order to reflect on it until it is completed at least to some extent. Bioethical problems are usually discussed from without, as events already happened or mainly theoretical provisions. However, during the pandemic this discussion arises from within and, therefore, constantly changes its character under the influence of new and new inputs, such as vague symptoms, a very different nature of the course of the COVID-19 disease, indecision or on the contrary, too zealous determination of the authorities, or the changing attitude of the population to the disease from complete disbelief to panic: Outbreaks of disease, uncertainty about transmission and prognosis, fears of infection and of economic instability, conflicting demands on leadership, the need to coordinate behavior across domains and communities, increasing socioeconomic and racial disparities, intensifying racial tensions, and so much more combine as extraordinary pressures exerting on all who think about the ethical features of a pandemic while from within it [4].

Any judgment refers to a certain moment of the process, but it cannot be completely generalising. This adds to the uncertainty. Uncertainty, in turn, creates additional tension, which cannot but affect the relationship. Here we mean the relationship between people and their attitude to decisions of the authorities. In case of a catastrophe, it is clear what need be responded to and in which way, whereas in the event of an epidemic it is necessary not only to react to what has already happened, but also to try to prevent what may happen in the future. All this increases uncertainty. The history of human society shows that it is in this situation that mainly improper decisions are made, which further undermine the credibility of the authorities in the eyes of the population.

Plunging into Pandemic-Related Deep Virtual Reality in Urban Environments Let us consider the features of the “mask lifestyle” that changes life in megapolises. Simmel once wrote …the psychological basis on which the personality of a big city stands is the heightened nervousness of life, resulting from the rapid and continuous change of external and internal impressions. Unlike small provincial cities, a resident of a megalopolis reacts to those around him rationally, since spiritual communication with the huge number of people that a city dweller meets every day on his way, is unfathomable. Rationality becomes the quality with which a typical resident of a large city (this type represents, to be sure, thousands of modifications) creates a means of self-defence against the currents and contradictions of his external environment, that threaten his existence. He reacts to them not with his feeling, but mainly with his mind… For this reason, the reaction to phenomena is diverted to the least sensitive psychic organ, which is very far from the depths of the human character [5].

A respectable member of a community knows from the media that a diseasecausing virus can manifest itself in very different ways. A person who can infect others, may not be aware that he or she is dangerous. In other words, during the pandemic, not only any unknown person, but also an acquaintance is a possible

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carrier of the virus. What safe communication can be invented in such a situation? Only virtual communication. Thus, the COVID-19 situation forces an inhabitant of a large city to dive deeper and deeper into virtual reality. The uncertainty already mentioned above, makes rational decisions almost impossible, since it depends on ever-increasing number of unknown variables. “Mask mode of life” makes people look alike. We are accustomed to reacting to facial expression in our everyday communication. Of course, we habitually transfer this perception of people to impersonal masks, but a significant part of the human world familiar to us, has disappeared, and we have to complete it in our minds. Moreover, if we see a person without a mask in a public place, we perceive him or her as a direct threat. Those whose faces are covered with masks, are becoming a new normality, while an uncovered face is becoming a sign of danger. Earlier, the danger usually came from a patient, but during the mask regime, it comes from everyone. Smiles disappear by degrees and smiles have always been intuitively perceived as indicators of good intentions. A usual handshake changes to a something different, not yet fully established (e.g. elbow nudges). This makes life in a large city even less sociable than usual. On an individual level, this can be seen in the fact that those who do not obey the simplest predetermined epidemiological rules, are viewed by others as offenders and potential culprits, whether it is expressed explicitly or thought covertly. City dwellers are already accustomed to treat others completely indifferently in large megapolises and it is easier for them to adapt to the new reality, which reinforces the already cool system of relations. But the rest of people, especially residents of rural areas, who are not ready to distance themselves immediately from each other and are somewhat less controlled by the authorities, regard epidemiological measures (mask regime) coolly. In any case, over time, the transition to an urban lifestyle becomes more and more in demand and the strengthening of external control is more and more inevitable.

Disintegration of Society During SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Unlike physical disasters, epidemic situations lead to separation, to isolation. Along with the mask regime, huge masses of the population are actually being imprisoned under house arrest, and this has serious consequences. It is obvious that “selfisolation” increases fear. As an example, we can remember the description of how the isolation grew during the Spanish flu epidemic in Philadelphia [6]. It was always the case for isolation, since a person feels less protected alone and that adds to constant psychological stress. People’s communication goes into virtual networks mediated by the screens of smartphones and monitors. We all think that this situation will continue until the adopted vaccines become as familiar as flu or tuberculosis vaccines. Uncertainty must gradually disappear along with the severity of the situation, and rationality must again

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become more justified. However, one cannot deny the possibility of a new pandemic or a new “wave,” which will again force everyone to alienate, to communicate using intermediaries of gadgets instead of face-to-face meetings. Society will live with it and we can only guess what social and psychological consequences we will have in the future. In any case, our already “cold” society is getting even colder.

Coerced Co-habitation Coerced co-existence of several people in one space is also an important constituent of social stress. There are two aspects of urban life comparing with the rural life: (1) though there are much more people around they are more distant from each other psychologically because families have become much less than in previous time (it is not surprise to meet families of two, or even one person living separately); (2) people are normally working and studying outside their house, and even at home meet for quite limited time only. Therefore, unlike previous rural and urban crowding, the modern urban lifestyle gives people an opportunity to occupy some kind of private space in their apartment and communicate only for a certain amount of time at their own will. Those who work from home distantly (the number of professions that provide such an opportunity, is increasing), consciously organise their personal space and time. Forced house arrest dramatically increases the time spent by family members or another co-habitants in a confined space. This is a psychological and social test that not everyone passes. E.g., there are indications of an increase in alcohol consumption due to coerced “self-isolation” [7]. Besides, domestic violence, for which statistics are usually the least accurate, is on the rise. Divorce rates are increasing around the world too and relationship experts warn the pandemic-induced break-up curve may not have peaked yet [8, 9].

New Types of Social Stratification: Discrimination and Search for the Guilty There are also a number of social implications not caused by urbanisation. A search for the guilty begins. At the same time, tolerance towards certain social groups and different peoples is being seriously tested. The focus of attention is naturally drawn primarily to the ruling classes, both central and local. They are accused of failing to protect the population from the infection or doing it very ineffectively. We may remember different examples. Cholera epidemic in the nineteenth century is a good one. R. J. Evans describes the situation in such a way: In feudal regimes like Russia and Austria-Hungary, and to some extent also parts of Prussia in the 1830s and 1840s, the nobility were still the main agents of local and regional government,

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so it is not surprising that they became the object of conspiracy theories among the peasantry. In Hungary, after over 1,000 cholera deaths between June and September 1831, castles were sacked and nobles massacred in an outburst of popular fury against those believed responsible for the deaths. Stockpiles of chlorate of lime were discovered in castle cellars, confirming suspicions that the nobility had been poisoning the wells [10: 163].

The nobles did not poison any wells and the robbers took the lime for poison in support of their own rumours. At that time, different riots took place in other European countries, from Russia to Great Britain. During such riots, rumours spread that the epidemic was organised by the rich in order to get rid of the poor, in accordance with the theory of Malthus. Independently of Malthus, the pandemic widens the gap between the social classes and strata. Suspicion and accusations come both from above (to the people who do not want to comply with the introduced rules and restrictions “in their favour”) and from below (because the wrong policy is being pursued, worsening social and economic situation). In particular, “those historians who have examined epidemics and analyzed how societies have responded to them have generally argued that those with power blamed the poor for their own suffering, and sometimes tried to stigmatize and isolate them” [6: 395]. Sometimes allegations of disobedience and inappropriate behaviour, despite the correct restrictive measures imposed by the authorities, apply to certain ethnic groups rather than general population: Those in power, historians have observed, often sought security in imposing order, which gave them some feeling of control, some feeling that the world still made sense… Denver Health Commissioner William Sharpley, for example, blamed the city’s difficulties with influenza on “foreign settlements of the city,” chiefly Italians. The Durango Evening Herald blamed the high death toll among Utes on a reservation on their “negligence and disobedience to the advice of their superintendent and nurses and physicians” [6: 396].

Any measures devised and implemented by the authorities, must be taken with an understanding of a possible reaction of the other side and, accordingly, must be clearly explained. Otherwise even the best intentions can lead to social evil. We can recall the famous Plague Riot in Moscow in 1771, which was caused by the order of the Moscow Archbishop Ambrose to seal the box for collecting money before Virgin Mary’s Bogolyubskaya Icon. The Archbishop wanted to avoid crowds but angered the people [11]. However, it is clear that the immediate cause of the riot does not explain such a reaction. The fact is that the government either concealed the real state of affairs, trying to downplay the scale of the disaster, or took insufficient measures to combat the epidemic. After the Russian imperial government announced a complete victory over the disease, the most devastating outbreak of plague ensued. Anyway, it is necessary to monitor the situation on a constant basis, that would be based on the most realistic data and understanding the nature of the pandemicrelated events. For example, Ali Khan, a man who has dedicated himself to fighting epidemic outbreaks in different regions of the planet, writes about this: The control of epidemics should take into account not only the numbers but what those numbers mean in terms of daily experience. This means making an effort to understand what people go through, what they believe and what they fear [12: 235].

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Quite often the government, if it is unable to prevent a catastrophe associated with a mass disease of the population, begins to find different guilty and those to blame. In the famous case of an outbreak of the most severe pulmonary form of anthrax in Sverdlovsk in 1979, caused by the leakage of anthrax spores from the biological laboratory of Military Town No. 19, the sellers of meat were accused as if they allowed the outbreak to occur due to their negligence [13]. The trust in the government—this trust is necessary for the normal functioning of the state in the critical situation—is questioned because of such searching for the guilty.

Social Distrust in Public Administration Already before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, faith in the ability of modern administrative systems to cope with their duties was significantly undermined and the pandemic only strengthened this mood. Jeffrey Hosking notes how poorly questions of generalised social trust are understood by most political commentators and social scientists. The best explanation for these epochal events is a sharp decline in public trust. The Edelman Trust Barometer records this decline in recent years. It is a worldwide poll, but its figures show European countries and the USA as being among the worst affected, with half or more of their populations believing the present system is not working [14: 79].

However, the whole monetary system of modern society rests on trust. Disappointment in the possibilities of power structures in conditions of mass COVID-related isolation and disbelief in the government’s ability to control the situation lead to enormous people’s stress. That, in turn, makes people more susceptible to various rumours, conspiracy theories, i.e. makes them more prone to be manipulated and less responsible. There is, albeit to varying degrees, frustration with the governments of individual countries—mainly Western countries, which are unable to protect their populations effectively. The same measures are assessed sometimes as positive and sometimes as negative. It is worth noting that public criticism is often justified, not even mentioning that many decisions are made for private rather than public interests (political, economic, administrative and corporate corruption), which looks ugly under normal conditions, but simply disgusting during the pandemic. Even if the bureaucratic apparatus functions more or less normally during periods of stability, in the emergency of the pandemic it usually does not work. In Russia, the recent healthcare reform has already effaced the reliable practice of epidemiological protecting the population. This system gave a possibility to effectively combat epidemics even during the most difficult conditions of the Great Patriotic War in 1941–1945 but during the last decade it was cancelled in favour of financial “effectiveness” of the healthcare sector. The current pandemic made the collapse of the medical care in Russia obvious.

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Implications of Belief As before, different prophets appear who claim that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was sent for the sins of men. Many Christians and Muslims agree on this. Moreover, there were cases in history when “one that saw plague as a mercy and a martyrdom sent by Allah, not a punishment” [15: 27]. Adjusted for modern realities and put out of the religious context, this is formulated as a punishment for the uncontrolled development of scientific research in genetic engineering and another strong indication that such research should be prohibited. If earlier Jews, migrants and sorcerers were found guilty, now they are substituted by fifth-generation computer networks or special service agencies, at whose behest scientists develop bacteriological weapons. In popular imagination, bankers, governments, and various foundations are usually found behind the intrigues of these special services. Accordingly, their goals are seen as Malthusianism (i.e., an attempt to stop population growth and even change the vector towards a decrease by means of the pandemic), a change in the economic situation, an increase in the possibility of manipulating consciousness, etc. Because of the considerations of pure belief, the Americans tend to blame China in spreading SARS-CoV-2 across the globe. The US government states this with sufficient certainty. “A leak from the Chinese laboratory is the most reliable version of the origin and spread of the coronavirus infection,” said Matthew Pottinger, US Deputy National Security Advisor during his video conference [16]. It is clear that such accusations, no matter how poorly they are justified, are aimed at deflecting accusations of possible wrong actions. Naturally, in a broader context, there is a transfer of accusations to definite nationalities (Chinese, Russians, etc.), who must be the culprits in spreading the virus not only at home, but in the world context too. The result is growing the international political tension in the times, when the international collaboration in stopping the threat is critical and even overdue. In response to these accusations, Chinese scholars speak of scapegoating, in which the Western media point to the Chinese nation instead of seeking international consensus in solidarity, cooperation and positive action [17].1 The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to rethinking the idea of such organisations as Life Community that is the ecological part of the Community of the Common Future of Humanity. As the Chinese researchers write, The capital-dominated mode of production broke up the harmonious development between man and nature, between man and man, destroyed the material cycle of the ecosystem, and forced us to explore ways and solve problems from green production, circular development and free development. We should start with observing the integrity of objective laws, establish an ecological view of harmonious coexistence between man and nature in the exploration of establishing the values system of Life Community, advance it from norm standardization to

The original in Chinese: 张威威,姚本先。新型冠状病毒疫情下的替罪羊社会心理现象初探// 理论观察。2020年。第03期(总第165期).

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practice… consistently build a life community on the basis of green production, circulation and “free” development [18].2

American researchers also write about a need to create a new world order based on liberation from inequality. Analysing the situation associated with the massive interest in Albert Camus’s novel The Plague, they conclude: Ultimately it is hope that springs forth in The Plague. Not naïve idealism that disregards our vastly different realities, but a hope for recognition, a recognition that we must act together with common decency to survive any collective crisis, whether the global virus pandemic or its concurrent hyper-partisan politics. But such hopeful recognition must extend beyond the pandemic itself and embody a commitment not simply to restore the old socioeconomic order but rather to work toward establishing a new order, one that addresses our nation’s ingrained inequalities, especially those based on race and class differences [19: 214].

Thus, during the pandemic, the old conversation about decency and dignity in interpersonal relationships, international collaboration and politics began on new terms.

New Type of Social Control Along with the aforementioned social consequences of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, it is worth noting a number of less obvious, but no less important issues. Transition to distance learning with unknown consequences is an educational effect of the pandemic. We do not know yet the social and psychological consequences of this process. There is a transition from face-to-face learning as a type of socialisation to online learning under the hypocritical slogans of “improved quality.” The means and conditions are being created for the transition to remote technologies. In reality, it turned out in the increased workload of teachers and diminished quality of education. Another effect is the growth of education-related deception. It is very easy for students not to be present at lectures during remote online sessions and to download the required works from the Internet during various tests. Learning in many ways turns into an imitation of learning. That will be discussed in the following chapter in details. The introduction of distance learning technologies is obviously leading to a new type of social stratification. Face-to-face training may gradually become a privilege of the ruling class. As computers become increasingly important in isolation, thus reinforcing virtual communication, the man turns out to be more and more manipulated and controlled. If we recall David Risman’s concept of the “crowd of loners,” then the real pandemic and post-pandemic situation may be the “crowd of encapsulated individuals” convinced of their uniqueness. However, this uniqueness manifests itself in social network communication, while the level of the “true” face-to-face communication fades under the influence of new conditions. Any virtual identity in social networks can be easily The original in Chinese: 兰军智,潘伟华,王聪聪,王海云。新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情影响下的生 命共同体思想解构//昆明理工大学学报(社会科学版)。2020年04月。第20卷2期.

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“banned” for their words. Therefore, averaging people’s ideas and thoughts may become the absolute norm with ever-decreasing amplitude of deviations. Taking into account highly fragmented thinking of the modern man and already firmly assimilated psychology of consumerism, we are moving towards a different type of society. In such a society, any traditional interpersonal relations may be replaced by virtual relations with enormous level of ideological control. During the pandemic, it is justified to track the movements of millions of infected people, to adopt the development of surveillance tools for all members of society and the introduction of more and more advanced PC algorithms, which would improve the quality of this surveillance. This trend is acquiring a new impetus and receiving additional funding in many countries. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was a good pretext for this. More and more effective and powerful means of controlling people are justified by new legislations adopted to “protect” people from the global threat. In particular, the quality of geo location programmes built in smartphones is constantly improving. Already at the present time, the leaders of various countries are receiving additional powers to bypass democratical rules and mechanisms of administration. A paradoxical situation arises now, during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. On the one hand, all citizens may be actually or potentially under control. On the other, the essence of social control and means of administration change significantly, as the management itself begins to be administered by PC software. This software is not fully controlled by the political elites and governments. In these strange conditions, the nature of political and social responsibility is changing and there is a redistribution of rights and obligations. By degrees, moral and interpersonal relationships in a community give way to relationships that are completely determined and regulated from without the community. Humanity is making a big step towards the anticipated globalisation.

Conclusions The following conclusions may be done from the analysis performed in the chapter. 1.

2.

In contrast to natural and artificial disasters, epidemic situations do not unite, but divide people. In the situation of global uncertainty caused by the current pandemic, anxiety and, accordingly, suspicion of people grows. The habitual rationalism of a city dweller partially gives way to instincts. E.g., seeing masks instead of faces, a person reacts to them as to a generalised “alien.” Morally binding interpersonal relationships are being replaced by indifferent relationships between “masked personalities,” that have no facial expression due to wearing individual protective units and cannot smile to show their potential good will. Accordingly, the good will and warmth go away from interpersonal communication. The tendency of population’s distrust towards authorities has increased substantially. In many cases during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the authorities were

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3. 4.

5.

6.

7.

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not only unable to protect their own population, but sometimes made decisions far from being adequate to the situation and responsible. The decline in trust, in turn, leads to an elevated confrontation between the top and bottom of society. As a result, conspiracy theories blossomed during the pandemic. Feelings of isolation, uncertainty, stress, and heightened anxiety negatively affect family relationships, as evidenced by the rise in divorce rates. The search for the guilty, which is a usual tendency during epidemics and pandemics, poisons relations between countries and peoples. However, new sentiments grow, aimed at rethinking relations in the context of the Spaceship Earth concept. The transition of the education system to predominantly distance (online) learning leads to a decrease in the quality of education and to a surge of imitation activities. The emergence of advanced computer technologies of social control is now justified in a number of countries by the need to track the movements of infectious patients. The development of surveillance and control technologies is on the rise. These technologies can be effectively used for constructing a society where traditional interpersonal relationships may be replaced by new depersonalised and dehumanised ones. The crowd of “encapsulated loners” certainly does not need any traditional social norms. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic accelerated the transitional processes that shift the post-industrial type of society to a something different. The new type of society implies new principles of social stratification, social structure and social relations.

References 1. Thucydides (1981) History. Leningrad: Nauka; 1981 2. Tyutchev FI (2000) The complete poems of Tyutchev in an English translation by F. Jude. http://www.pereplet.ru/moshkow/LITRA/TUTCHEW/english.html 3. O’Mathúna DP, Gordjin B, Clarke M (eds) (2014) Disaster bioethics: normative issues when nothing is normal. Springer, New York 4. Crane JK (2020) Jewish ethics in Covid-19. J Jewish Ethics 6(1):1–29 5. Simmel G (2002) Large cities and spiritual life. Logos 3:1–2 6. Barry JM (2004) The great influenza. The epic story of the deadliest plague in history. London: Penguin Group 7. Sberbank noticed alcohol prices rise. RBK. https://www.rbc.ru/society/01/04/2020/5e844bac9 a79473f0a785038 8. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20201203-why-the-pandemic-is-causing-spikesin-break-ups-and-divorces 9. During the pandemics, in Russia the number of divorces increased. Moscow24 TV Channel. https://www.m24.ru/news/obshchestvo/18122020/146382 10. Evans RJ (1992) Epidemics and revolutions: cholera in nineteenth-century Europe. In Epidemics and ideas. Essays on the historical perception of pestilence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

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11. Supotnitsky MV, Supotnitskaya NS (2006) Essays on the history of the plague. Book. 1. Moscow: Vuzovskaya kniga 12. Khan AS, Patrick W (2016) The next pandemic. On the front lines against Humankind’s gravest dangers. New York: Public Affairs 13. Alibek K, Handelman S (2000) Biohazard: the chilling true story of the largest covert biological weapons program in the world-told from the inside by the man who ran it. Random House Publishing Group, New York 14. Hosking G (2019) The decline of trust in government. In Trust in contemporary society, ed. by Masamichi Sasaki. Leiden: Brill 15. Hays JN (2005) Epidemics and pandemics. Their impacts on human history. New York: ABCCLIO 16. In the White House, the most probable reason of the pandemics, has been announced. Vedomosti. 3 January 2021. https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/news/2021/01/03/853292-v-belomdome-nazvali-naibolee-veroyatnuyu-prichinu-pandemii-koronavirusa 17. Zhang W, Yao B (2020) Psychosocial phenomenon of scapegoat in the new coronavirus epidemic. Theoretic Observation. Serial No. 165, No. 03 18. Lan J, Pan W, Wang C, Wang H (2020, April) Deconstruction of the idea of “Life Community” under the effect of the COVID—19 Epidemic. J Kunming Uni Sci Technol 20(2):45−50. Doi:10.16112/j.cnki.53-1160/c.2020.02.007 19. Baker JA, Beaudine D, Deckas F et al (2020) Rhetorics and Viruses. Phil Rhetoric 53(3):207– 216

Chapter 12

Assisting Minors in Russia and Ukraine to Deal with the COVID-19 Situation: Social, Mental and Epidemiological Implications Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach Abstract The aim of the current Chapter is as follows: (1) to estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Russian and Ukrainian minors; (2) to investigate psychological reaction of adolescents to COVID-19 crisis; and (3) to study severe cases of the disease in the adolescents to reveal appropriate steps of counteracting. Methods: confidential self-administered survey; mass screening of population for SARS-CoV2; constructing randomized and representative population samplings; investigating clinical data. Places: five Russian and five Ukrainian cities. Dates: 2 March 2020– 20 May 2020. Size: 1,854 + 27,276 people. The mean percentage of COVID-19 positive minors is 5.15 ± 0.59 (CI = 95%, p = 0.05) of all minors. They account for 12.99% of all SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases. Proportion of severe cases is 0.073%. Therefore, adolescents constitute a vulnerable group of population during COVID19 pandemic, both mentally and socially. A proper social and psychological work is needed to minimize the mental consequences of COVID-19.

Introduction In Russia and Ukraine, adolescents contract COVID-19 with rates comparable with adults, with much less number of moderate and severe clinical course, but perceive COVID-19 crisis more acutely and painfully. We advance a draft of social and psychological work programme accompanying medical treatment of COVID-19 adolescent patients.

F. E. I. Legach (B) Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Dean of Temple of St Transfiguration in Kharkov, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 23 Pereyaslavskaya st., Kharkov 61016, Ukraine © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_12

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Problem COVID-19 spread is very challenging for people of all ages, but especially for adolescents [1–3]. It is challenging mentally, emotionally, physically as well as epidemiologically [4–7]. Though aged persons are representing the main epidemiological risk group recognised by WHO [8], adolescents may comprise a mental risk group, as they are mostly unprotected in social dimension of the pandemic, especially those of them who live without one or two parents, in problem families, or suffer from chronic diseases [9, 10]. Reporting of our study conforms to broad EQUATOR guidelines [11].

Psychological Apprehension of COVID-19 Crisis by Russian and Ukrainian Adolescents We used confidential surveying 1,854 schoolgirls and schoolboys and 5,530 members of their families (parents, grandparents, siblings, etc.) living in five Russian (Moscow, St Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Krasnodar, Rostov-on-Don) and five Ukrainian (Kiev, Kharkov, Dnepr, Odessa, Uzhgorod) cities. A self-administered questionnaire was used (2 March–15 May 2020). It was revealed that though population infection rate in the group of 12–17 year-old Russian and Ukrainian adolescents is less than in adults, as well as percentage of moderate and severe COVID-19 clinical course, the youth perceives COVID-19 crisis more dramatically in psychological aspect than their parents, elder siblings or 6–11 year-old school mates (Fig. 12.1). All schoolchildren and members of their families in the sampling have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR technique during the investigation or before it. Those tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were provided with necessary medical care. Symptomatic picture was assessed by clinicians in medical centres and hospitals.

Percentage of Russian and Ukrainian Adolescents Affected by COVID-19 In spite of Russia having an excessive official programme of population screening (around 8 million tests made as of 20 May 2020) [12], there is no Russian official statistics on COVID-19 in minors publicly accessible. Ukraine did not have any wide screening programmes by the end of 2020. The results of our proprietary investigation of the proportion and clinical course of COVID-19 in Russian and Ukrainian minors, including adolescents, are presented in this subchapter. The set described here, was not overlapping with the set of schoolchildren considered in the previous subchapter. The data on the overall number of COVID-19 infections in children and adolescent group are controversial. They differ from country to country considerably, from

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Fig. 12.1 Population infection rate, symptomatic clinical course of COVID-19 disease and personal psychological experience of Russian and Ukrainian schoolchildren and members of their families during the pandemic

0.8% for Iceland [13] to 4.8% in Republic of Korea [14] (broad screening) and 12.3% in Wuhan, China [15] (in-hospital testing). US CDC provides information that 2% of confirmed cases of COVID-19 were among persons aged under 18 years old [16]. Percentage values account for the paediatric group in the confirmed cases cohort. Proprietary testing of several population samplings in different ecological environments (multiplex PCR technique) led to results shown in Fig. 12.2, panel A. The mean percentage of COVID-19 positive persons in different age groups across different samplings was 5.15 ± 0.59 (CI = 95%, p = 0.05). The mean of population infection rate (PIR) was 4.04% as of 21 May 2020 (official data obtained in Russian mass screening) and 7.31% for the general population in our proprietary screening programme. It means that PIR in the group of minors, including adolescents, is slightly less than overall PIR across the broad population. All minors (0–17 years old) accounted for 12.99% of all SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases in the totality of five samplings (259 of 1,994 total SARS-CoV-2 positive cases). Figure 12.2, panel B, presents proportion of different COVID-19 manifestation in paediatric patients. On the whole, the overwhelming majority of cases was asymptomatic or mild symptomatic. With age, a slight increase in the number of moderate and serious cases was observed. For adolescent group (12–17 years old), the total number of cases with moderate and severe COVID-19 clinical course was comparable with young schoolchildren group (6–11 years) and significantly larger (22 times) than for pre-school and infant group (0–5 years old).

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Fig. 12.2 Results of proprietary population testing the minor group for SARS-CoV-2 in Russia and Ukraine. The testing programme was performed free of charge to all participants, with the help of personnel of 25 commercial medical centres. a: Testing in different ecological environments. A: Closed suburban districts. Size of sampling: 2,826 persons in total, 366 minors. B: Townhouses. Size of sampling: 2,109 persons in total, 445 minors. C: Multi-storey apartment buildings. Size of sampling: 2,837 persons in total, 558 minors. D: Random street testing. Size of sampling: 3,062 persons in total, 542 minors. E: Random representative screening. The sampling was composed in proportions reflecting Russian and Ukrainian society age/gender structure. Volunteers participated. Size of sampling: 16,442 persons in total, 3,109 minors. Dot green line is the weighted average across all minor cohorts. Dash-dot dark-blue line is the mean population infection rate in Russia and Ukraine, according to Russian official statistics and our estimations for Ukraine. Dash-doubledot wine-coloured line is the mean population infection rate obtained in the proprietary screening programme. b: Different COVID-19 symptomatic manifestation for different age groups. Double logarithmic scale is used for convenience of presentation. The sum of column values is 100% in any of the three quadruplets

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Severe Cases of COVID-19 in Adolescent Group of Russian and Ukrainian Population Though population infection rate is lower for both Russian and Ukrainian adolescents than for adults (however, not so low as measured for US [16], Italy [17] and Spain [18]), serious concerns still remain for severe cases in adolescent group. Most of these cases are complicated and aggravated by serious comorbidities. According to the data received from our confidential surveying 56 paediatricians in 44 paediatric hospitals in Russia and Ukraine, since 15 March 2020 to 20 May 2020, 27 COVID-19 patients under 18 years old required critical care. That would comprise approximately 0.073% of all minors tested positive for SARS-CoV2 and is essentially less than 0.4–0.6% reported for China [19]. The difference may not be accounted for by Russian and Ukrainian population specificity, but by possible underestimating the total number of adolescent SARS-CoV-2 carriers in China. We carefully investigated seven severe COVID-19 cases of adolescents hospitalised in paediatric clinics in Moscow, St Petersburg and Nizhny Novgorod since 2 March to 15 May 2020. Comorbidities were as follows: cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (3 cases); hormonal disorders (HD) (3); overdose of medicines (3); secondary bacterial pneumonia (SBP) (3); acute respiratory viral co-infections (2); anorexia (2); drug addiction (2); heavy smoking (2); alcohol addiction (1); neurological diseases (1); chronic pulmonary disorders (1); obesity (1). All cases required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and other critical care medical procedures.

Prospects Adolescents constitute a vulnerable group of population during COVID-19 pandemic, both mentally and socially. Severe cases of disease are not excluded. Most of them are not associated merely with epidemiological factors or physical condition of young persons, but also with poor social background and/or psychological problems. Overdose, drug/alcohol addiction, heavy smoking, observed in our study, were manifestations of acute social and psychological issues in lives of young people (unshared love stories, intimate violence, difficulties in problem families, abuse at home, bullying at school or among mates, dangerous companies). Such issues may threaten the health and wellbeing of youth, especially in the time of COVID-19 crisis. Within adolescent group, SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is relatively low dangerous itself. It begins to represent a significant hazard in complicated cases. The reasons for the complications may be physiological, mental or social. Therefore, on treating adolescents tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the current pandemic, especially in complicated cases, we should accompany hospital medical procedures by psychological and social work with young persons, made in a relevant and timely manner by the appropriate specialists.

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References 1. Wagner KD (2020) Addressing the experience of children and adolescents during the COVID19 pandemic. J Clin Psychiatry 81(3):20ed13394. doi: https://doi.org/10.4088/JCP.20ed13394 2. Ragavan MI, Culyba AJ, Muhammad FL, Miller E (2020, April) Supporting adolescents and young adults exposed to or experiencing violence during the COVID-19 pandemic. J Adolescent Health 22 [Epub ahead of print]. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2020.04.011 3. Nagata JM (2020, May) Supporting young adults to rise to the challenge of COVID-19. J Adolescent Health 14 [Epub ahead of print]. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2020. 04.020 4. Goldberg JF. Psychiatry’s Niche Role in the COVID-19 Pandemic. J Clin Psychiatry. 2020;81(3):20com13363. doi: https://doi.org/10.4088/JCP.20com13363 5. Freeman MP (2020) COVID-19 from a psychiatry perspective: meeting the challenges. J Clin Psychiatry 81(2):20ed13358. doi: https://doi.org/10.4088/JCP.20ed13358 6. Sassin W (2019) Deja Vue? Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020210216. handle: 20.500.12656/thebeacon.2.020210216 doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3733442 7. Sassin W (2019) Er-Schöpfung der Schöpfung, oder Eine neue Kulturstufe in der Entwicklung des homo. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 2(2):020510203. handle: 20.500.12656/thebeacon.2.020510203 doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3732508 8. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic (2019) WHO official website. https://www.who. int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019. Accessed 16 May 2020 9. Golberstein E, Wen H, Miller BF (2020, April 14) Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and mental health for children and adolescents. JAMA Pediatr [Epub ahead of print]. doi: https:// doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.1456 10. Fegert JM, Vitiello B, Plener PL, Clemens V (2020) Challenges and burden of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic for child and adolescent mental health: a narrative review to highlight clinical and research needs in the acute phase and the long return to normality. Child Adolesc Psychiatry Ment Health 14:20. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13034-020-00329-3 11. Simera I, Moher D, Hoey J, et al. (2010) A catalogue of reporting guidelines for health research. Eur J Clin Invest 40(1):35–53. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2362.2009.02234.x 12. Stopcoronavirus.rf. (2020) Official urgent data on the novel coronavirus in Russia. https://xn-80aesfpebagmfblc0a.xn--p1ai. Accessed 21 May 2020 13. Gudbjartsson DF, Helgason A, Jonsson H, et al. (2020) Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic population. N Engl J Med NEJMoa2006100 [Epub ahead of print]. doi:https://doi.org/10.1056/ NEJMoa2006100 14. Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention: Report on the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Korea from January 19 to March 2, 2020 (2020). J Korean Med Sci 35:e112. doi:https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2020.35. e112 15. Lu X, Zhang L, Du H, et al. (2020, March 18) SARS-CoV-2 infection in children. N Eng J Med [Epub ahead of print]. doi:https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2005073 16. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (2020). Information for pediatric healthcare providers. US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/ hcp/pediatric-hcp.html. Accessed 21 May 2020 17. Livingston E, Bucher K (2020, March 17) Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy. JAMA [Epub ahead of print]. doi: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4344 18. Tagarro A, Epalza C, Santos M, et al. (2020) Screening and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children in Madrid, Spain. JAMA Pediatr e201346 [Epub ahead of print]. doi: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.1346 19. Dong Y, Mo X, Hu Y, et al. (2020, March 16) Epidemiological characteristics of 2143 pediatric patients with 2019 coronavirus disease in China. Pediatrics e20200702 [Epub ahead of print]. doi: https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2020-0702

Chapter 13

Radical Changes of Information Society During SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Structural Transformations of the Security Sphere: Experience of Republic of Belarus Svetlana N. Sokolova and Anastasia A. Sokolova Abstract In the Chapter, we focus on overcoming the consequences of the coronacrisis 2020-2021 in the Republic of Belarus. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, international relations were the result of the military-political, socio-economic and socio-cultural activities of different states, which were characterised by the involvement of the political elites, aggressive media pressure, and social instability augmenting factors in the process of East–West information war. With the rapid increase in the amount of information on SARS-CoV-2, catastrophic changes occurred in public consciousness. They were related to individual insecurity, breaching democracy and human rights, information violence, cyberbullying, increased level of international terrorism. They affected the transmutation of the axiological potential of a modern person, which became a strategic resource in the process of globalization and replicating violence in the information society. This information expansion (information war) has led to large-scale changes in the security sphere using information and network technologies. During the pandemic, destructive tendencies (transformational, military-political, economic, anthropological crises) continue to dominate in international relations, as well as violent methods of informational influence on society, which actualized the problem of information security, which is an integral part of the national security of the Republic of Belarus. In the situation of the coronacrisis, when information and telecommunication technologies totally controlled the impact of the infosphere on public consciousness, the information society was threatened by instability and lack of sustainability/resilience. The aim of administrators, both in Belarus and other countries, is not to allow this situation during new possible epidemiological hazards.

S. N. Sokolova (B) · A. A. Sokolova University of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Emergencies of Belarus, 25 Mashinostroiteley St, Minsk 220118, Belarus © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_13

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Introduction The modern transformational crisis and the processes of integration, digitalization, taking place in the information society during a pandemic, determine the structural changes in the security sphere. The development of information and telecommunication technologies and digitalization dynamically changes the existing social reality, mental environment and spiritual equipment of the modern personality, which leads to the alteration of traditional values, initiating destructive social interactions and paradoxes of international cooperation during a pandemic, especially in the field of information security. The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and desynchronization of public relations, as well as multi-vector changes of a global nature in modern society, affect the security sphere, predetermining the axiological content of public relations [1], because “…humanity has entered the phase of searching for new strategies of civilizational development, searching for new values, when an analysis of the previous life meanings that would guide the development of civilization” [2]. Purposeful diversification, cyberbullying, low level of media culture, panoramic impact on the information society, formats the verbal and logical patterns of thinking of a modern person, which weakens social control, generates a conflict of interpretations, complicating the moral and ethical choice of the individual, minimizing positive communication and reducing the emotional and semantic unity of the subjective and objective reality. It is in the information society that language (sign systems) becomes a means of communication and solution of international problems in a globalizing world, taking into account the socio-biological foundations of the evolution of language, intercultural communication and social interactions (information-analytical, organizational-adaptive, intercultural-mediatory, interpersonal communication).

Analysis The transformational crisis in the information society is pulsating more and more distinctly with increasing speed, indicating that “…the problem is not in organizations …different structures have long learned to cooperate with each other on the legal, military-technical, and even more so at the political levels. The problem remains with values” [3]. Structural transformations of the security sphere during a pandemic give rise to deindustrialization, social instability, dehumanization, diversification of society, associated with the diversity of linguistic semantics, the use of information manipulation technologies, which are the result of the activity of the media-Internet space as a fundamental factor in the development of the information society. Recall that at the beginning of the 21st century, there is a transition from the bipolar to the polycivilizational world, which provoked crises of a global nature, which divided social reality into many component parts (regional, national-territorial,

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religious-historical, socio-political, cultural-ethnic, information-mental, communication and linguistic), since “…the bipolar picture of the Cold War is giving way to much more complex relations in a multipolar, polycivilizational world” [4]. The information society, which is a multi-level system of public relations, is today the result of a constantly renewing media-Internet space, in which “…the previously formed scientific worldview and rational thinking are purposefully replaced by the media with myths of various kinds and pseudoscience. The result was a change in the system of coordinates of mass consciousness” and traditional values [5]. That is why during a pandemic there is an intensive marginalization of society (local military conflicts, cyberattacks, interethnic aliens) [6], and there is also sociopolitical, financial and economic instability, which leads to the dehumanization of public relations, as “…play… groups of managers … and various kinds of informal communities [7], including those that deny the existing world order, in particular criminal and terrorist…communities that operate on a par with the established centers of economic and political power, having access to financial, organizational, information, technical civilization” [8]. The security sphere of the information society is multifaceted in its structure [9], and this “unchanging monolith” [10] is being inevitably transformed during a pandemic, and under the influence of the digital environment, the scale and intensity of attempts to constantly format public consciousness and devalue traditional values change, which is dangerous for modern people and society [11]. In this regard, a cognitive dissonance arises, that is characterized, on the one hand, by the dominance of the psychology of consumption and violence in the information society (information violence) and the emergence of digital danger, and on the other hand, during a pandemic, the axiological personality matrix is deformed [1]. Information violence, as a result of the purposeful impact of illegitimate information and the purposeful use of digital technologies to manipulate information, provoke mainly negative reflection (cyberattacks, ideological pressure, destructive communication). Media communications, media production, information and telecommunication technologies are becoming an aggressive digital environment and, in the process of correcting stereotypes of human behavior, they create a value vacuum that affects the verbal and logical patterns of thinking, “worldview meanings” [12] and the mental environment of a modern personality. The value vacuum that arises as a result of such dehumanization is not automatically filled, which is associated with the emergence of anti-values that determine the spiritual equipment of a modern person. It is the propaganda of reification, as well as the introduction of anti-values into the public consciousness, that today initiates an aggressive attitude of a person to everything that happens in the information society (fear, hatred, violence, stress, neuroses, suicide, neuroticism, depression). Structural transformations of the security sphere are connected with the fact that traditional values are giving way to artificial stereotypes, which does not at all contribute to fruitful international cooperation, intercultural communication and diplomatic settlement of international issues that are directly related to a multicultural society, personality and the “semantic and communication constant” the

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role of subjective “…reality, measured by deep feelings (conscience, intuition, self-awareness)” [13]. The sphere of security during a pandemic is becoming a particular priority due to the prevalence of the digital environment in the information society (“digital man”, “digital generation”, “digital natives”) and the scale of information violence spreading in society, which leads to the replacement of traditional values with a surrogate and anti-values. And as a result of modern technologies for manipulating information, international relations are changing, and the security sigma, which is focused on traditional values and is a tolerant person with a sufficient level of legal awareness, with modern knowledge, focused on international cooperation, a healthy image, is becoming the basic factor affecting the security sphere life, creativity and dialogue of cultures [14]. Existence of a person consists of two interconnected systems: organic and inorganic, which are subordinate to the general universal principles of origin and destruction. Inorganic (inanimate nature) creates conditions for life, and organic (living nature) reproduces life in its various species diversity, and the organic system at the same time consists of many structural levels (species), i.e. of relatively organized and ordered life forms. The main goal of any of these living structural levels is its own survival by creating a safe environment for existence. Proceeding from this goal, the authors consider it expedient to present three main directions of relationships between various structural types of life. If one structure begins to violate the security environment of another, then the stronger one will suppress the weaker one. If these structures do not interact with each other, then they develop independently. But, provided that the structures are interested in each other for the purpose of self-preservation, they can complement each other, forming a more complex and extended (spatio-temporal) general structure, which consists of a number of subjects that create certain (necessary) ways of ordering and the organization of relationships that contribute to the self-preservation of the system of a particular type of culture, language, writing, religion, art, science, morality, law; sociality (social hierarchy), various forms of associations and relationships; politics, state, power, power structures, fiscal authorities; economy, various types of production, finance, market. The dominant element in a particular structure was the state, which united all the elements into one whole, acting as the main subject of self-preservation, the development of a particular system. The main goal of the system, as already noted by the authors, is the self-preservation of a person and society, which is revealed through the qualitative criteria of cyclical development. So, there are three such stages: convergent, transitional and divergent; or, in another sequence, - from divergent to convergent (depending on the starting point of movement: from homogeneous to heterogeneous structure or vice versa). If a homogeneous structure (structures) is formed in the convergent phase of development, then in the transitional period, new influencing factors appear that form the rudiments of heterogeneous structures, due to which a transition to a divergent phase occurs, i.e. based on the old homogeneous and new heterogeneous structures. As a rule, the reason for the transition to a new stage in the development of technogenic civilization is associated more with economic problems (depletion of resources, ineffective production and labor resources during a

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pandemic) and, to a lesser extent, with an (anthropological) value crisis. The updated structure (in this case, divergent), on the basis of various potential qualities, states, selects one that is necessary from the point of view of self-preservation, i.e. the social structure that best suits the existing new conditions. The mechanism of cyclical development generates a socio-cultural tension (contradiction) between the core of values (cultural code) and factors (external, internal) that bring certain changes in social reality. The security sphere of the information society is focused, on the one hand, at clarifying the specific sources of various kinds of dangers and threats, and on the other hand, is associated with the disclosure of the structural elements of the system that ensure its self-preservation and progressive development in a changing social reality. The relationship between the authorities and the state in the organization of influence on society is an extremely important issue for clarifying the essence of state regulation and impact on public relations. The political power and the state have their own functions in society, from which the diversity of their manifestation and interaction follows, and the main thing is that without the supreme power, the state will not consider society as its partner (counterparty). And in this case, on the basis of stimulating signals about needs and interests coming from the main strata and large social groups in the information society, the government, through legislation and through changes in financial flows, regulates the parameters of the activities of state bodies to ensure security, especially during a pandemic. The state is the main regulatory institution in society, provided that there are competitive relations in society, and they are possible only in a democratic system. This is how the security of the information society is ensured, since the goal-setting activity of the state aimed at countering the infliction of unacceptable harm to a person is security. At the same time, the state acts as an arbiter, but at the same time it represents the interests of those strata of the population who have the greatest opportunities to put pressure on state power, economically, politically dominant forces. But the question arises: is the security sphere unlimited for state intervention or state power should be limited in everything, by the rights and freedoms of citizens, that is, there is no, and there can be no public spheres where the state would be completely free in its actions. At the same time, the socio-political arbitration of the state is indeed not always ideal, and what forces dominate in society can be seen in the state’s attitude to vital issues of different segments of the population, and not just to security issues. Obviously, objectively in modern societies there is a second version of the subjectivity of business structures and these structures are part of the public, which in a democratic society should actively participate in management, since in an information society it will not be possible to separate the “political” from the “economic”, from which, Apparently, we can conclude that not all processes in the security sphere are political in nature (which, in fact, allows at least to assume the objectivity of participation in this area of citizens, the public, business, and not just the government). There are connections between the state and society, there is an interchange of information (infosphere) and activities, therefore, when it comes to the state as a subject of security regulation, we do not mean all manifestations, properties, aspects of the state, but only those that are associated with goal setting, the impact of a certain type on society and

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on the security sphere. However, situations are not excluded in which one and the same public authority can and should function simultaneously in the systems of regulation and safety management. And at the same time, today there is no answer to the question: is the government of any modern state ready for permanent activity in relation to numerous non-state actors? There are other topical questions: is the system of budgetary state regulation a priority in the field of security? Or maybe the political will of the ruling leadership, the preparedness of the special services, or something else is more important in it? As a result, it turns out that it is very difficult to answer these questions in a socio-philosophical manner. Of course, the state by means of regulation has to implement mainly the common interest, since otherwise it is impossible to achieve the satisfaction of the interests of man and society in ensuring the most effective security. For these purposes, a strong state power is needed, provided that its main object is the information society and the security sphere. The substantive part of the state regulation system is largely related to goal-setting. For many years, scientists have been discussing issues related to which society will reflect the interests of the majority of citizens, how to protect the electorate from dangers and a pandemic. The goals before society and the state were usually postulated by the authorities. It is for these purposes (goal-setting) that a modern series of domestic political measures has been proposed to increase public confidence in the state and authorities. With regard to the security sphere, this approach is constructive, since it is obvious that without public trust in the authorities, as well as in the special services and other power structures, security cannot be guaranteed. Setting goals in front of the system of state regulation, on the one hand, concerning the entire society, and on the other, relying on state power, is a difficult intellectual process. It can highlight the following systemforming moments, especially relevant for the information society. In this regard, public sources of emergence and fixation of the goals of state regulation are necessary. It should be noted right away that, in contrast to the prevailing stereotypes, according to which one can see better from above, objectively the goals of state regulation arise and should appear “below”, i.e. go from the needs of citizens and the interests of society. The goal of a modern state is and only is to foster the material and spiritual development of the individual and ensure security, since the goals of regulation are formulated by the political power, or no one formulates them. However, if the statistical data are supplemented with some facts and generalized, then somewhat different conclusions can be drawn about the state of the security sector, since public sources of articulating socially significant goals allow us to formulate objective goals of state regulation of the security sector. At the same time, it is important to understand that only after setting goals, taking into account public sources, can the problem field of state regulation of the security sector be formulated, since it is relational and reflexive during a pandemic. Structural transformations of the security sphere actualize the author’s functions, which, during a pandemic, minimize destructive impact of the observed crises (transformational, military-political, economic, anthropological crises) and modern information manipulation technologies.

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The function of social forecasting of the impact of structural transformations during a pandemic, which is necessary to develop a sustainable development strategy, achieve a sufficient level of security and a state of stability in society (implementation of doctrinal guidelines in the field of security). The function of identifying priorities for the development of the security sphere, where the state determines the priorities, which are then implemented in politics [15]. Consequently, for the sustainable development of the information society, a system of state regulation of the security sphere with clearly formulated development objectives within the framework of the Concept of National Security (Concept of Information Security of the Republic of Belarus) is required. The function of synchronizing the efforts of government agencies and the public and the complex impact on the security sphere. In scientific controversy, there is a very wide range of opinions on how to revitalize the security sphere. And it’s no secret that during a pandemic, transformations take place in the information society, which illustrate an unstable state, a political singularity that causes a transformational crisis that arises at the stage of the formation of informationmental models in the process of destructive activity of political actors, which becomes repetitive. And within the framework of this function, according to the authors, it is important to create conditions for stabilizing the situation in the economy, politics, as well as humanizing public relations, in order to implement a sustainable state policy in the field of security. The function of promoting positive transformations in the field of security, ensuring the sustainable development of society, as well as a sufficient level of security for the individual, society and the state. In the information society, this function has general social goals, and the regulation of relations between various communities are carried out in order to achieve stability within the framework of ensuring national security. And in this case, an effective innovation policy is necessary for the development of high-tech industries, science-intensive products that will change the economic and political situation in a particular state, determining the security sphere. The leading role in the process of shaping the directions and implementation of innovation policy should remain with the scientific and political elite, state authorities, which are called upon to develop the so-called “rules of the game” in economics and politics. But still, during a pandemic, only innovative policy, the activation of intellectual resources, the prospective development of the security sphere is not exhausted, since objectively there is a need “…to strengthen cooperation and partnerships between small and medium-sized businesses and participants in innovation, including government organizations, research and academic institutions” [16]. The function of permanent initiation of democratic transformations in the security sphere is connected, first of all, with the regulation of political relations (political security) [17]. The sphere of security, as a special sphere of public life, permeates the economic, political, social and spiritual areas of the life of society, since national security includes political, economic, military, environmental, informational security, etc. Specialized bodies, which are one of the main, but by no means the only subject of national security, are engaged in

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solving issues of all these areas. All state institutions and civil society actors play an important and varied role in its provision, which presupposes not only a safe existence of state bodies, but, above all, a sufficient level of security of the individual and society. Function of integration and coordination of international cooperation on security problems. This function is that the modern state should strive to integrate the security sphere. Thus, within the framework of globalization, the modern Republic of Belarus is actively involved in maintaining international security and a stable world order [18], actively interacting with the UN and other international organizations. In the information society, it is necessary to introduce humanistoriented methods of regulating international relations, since this problem poses a serious challenge to international institutions during a pandemic, which can and should develop a more effective strategy to resolve the transformational crisis and prevent local military conflicts. The implementation of this function, as the authors think, will contribute to international cooperation, since it assumes the existence of various centers of power and competition in the international arena, the involvement of a large number of non-state actors in international activities. The problem of the influence of power on public relations, especially in the security sphere, remains almost unexplored, although recently there has been an increase in interest in studying the theory and practice of state regulation of the security sphere. The methods of state influence on the security sphere in the information society should be issues of integrated security, especially during a pandemic, which include biosafety, international, economic, political, social, spiritual, demographic and food security [19].

The authors’ interest in the structural transformations of the security sphere is due to the fact that today in the information society, the dominant media-Internet space and the mythologized dimension of social reality give rise to a situation of value deprivation that formats the axiological projection of the personality. To actualize the issues of introspective psychology, we note that they are associated with the use of information manipulation technologies and the conversion of public relations in an information technology society. Structural transformations of the security sphere that occur during a pandemic initiate four types of influence of state structures on society in the information society. (1)

(2)

(3)

a mobilization type of state regulation, which determines the ability of the information society at a certain time to accumulate resources (material, human, informational), concentrating them on a priority area for a more effective strategy for sustainable development; a distributive type of state regulation, contributing to the placement of resources available in the information society in accordance with the needs of a modern individual, taking into account socio-political, financial-economic and culturalinformation interests; a controlling type of state regulation, explaining the activities of various social institutions, groups and modern personality;

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a communication type of state regulation, which makes it possible to actively use information technologies for the dissemination of humanistic ideas in society in order to increase the effectiveness of the regulatory influences of power structures that affect the information security of an individual. Information security of an individual is associated with state regulation (impact), which should be aimed not only at preventing a pandemic, but also at implementing comprehensive measures to overcome modern transformational, military-political, economic, anthropological crises, as well as preserve territorial integrity and constitutional order. On the basis of this idea, according to the authors, a humanistic concept that is understandable to the whole society can be proposed, which can and should become a meaningful basis for social harmony, consolidating social institutions and security subjects [20].

During a pandemic, the purposeful impact of state structures on the security sphere, according to the authors, should be carried out in five main areas. First direction. Increased attention of the state to the interests of the public, while the state, by its regulatory actions, should instill optimism and confidence in the protection of its citizens, both on the territory of its country and abroad, in order to create optimal conditions for sustainable development, stability, public and personal security. Second direction. New directions of scientific developments in the field of security, aimed at innovative thinking and humanization of public relations, need further improvement. Maximum synchronization, transparency of the multidimensional process transformations taking place in the field of security is the primary task of state structures. During a pandemic, a human resource is fundamental for the information society, the development of which is facilitated by medicine, education and science (intellectualization of the security sphere). Third direction. It should be recognized that it is impossible to ensure the progressive development of the system of regulation of public relations in the field of security using only administrative methods, and therefore it is important to focus the attention of state structures on the regulatory principles of civil society participation, which exclude the division of society into reformers and reformed. Complex geopolitical processes provoke various crises, which more clearly outlined the boundaries of a civilizational rift that changes international relations that affect the security sphere. And in the process of modern transformations, especially during a pandemic, an imbalance and discomfort arises, intensifying the information war. Consequently, the options for the safe existence of the individual, society and the state proposed by the authors are projected in two planes: firstly, in the essential characteristics and features of the information society, which is not yet ready to implement systemic solutions in security issues, and, secondly, in readiness the political elite should really integrate during a pandemic, minimizing brutal-aggressive methods of broadcasting information (information violence). In the future, the implementation of the directions proposed by the authors will allow not only to influence the effectiveness of the security sphere, but also to diagnose the dynamics of the development of the security sphere during a pandemic [21].

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Thus, it can be argued that the authors have characterized the main functions of state regulation, which is associated with a transformational crisis during a pandemic and is due to the resources of previous social relations, as well as ambiguous modernization processes, the intensity of digitalization in the context of reforming all spheres of society, including the security sphere. Summing up, it can be argued that during a pandemic, structural changes in the security sphere objectively occur, since national economies, social institutions are destroyed and the coordinate system of mass consciousness is being formatted, which means that the adaptive potential of the social system decreases, destroying traditional values and deforming the axiological matrix of personality [22]. As a result, firstly, in the information society it is necessary to minimize the ongoing devaluation of traditional values, which is objectively associated with a pandemic, the emergence of artificial stereotypes and a total reification of the existing social reality. Secondly, the dehumanization of society and the devaluation of traditional values is associated with information violence, which minimizes the safe existence of the individual, society and the state. Consequently, the dominance of destructive tendencies in the information society provokes the emergence of anti-values that destroy the system of traditional values and gives rise to lack of spirituality, which affects the moral and psychological climate in society. And, thirdly, it is important to intensify the process of developing recommendations for updating traditional values in the information society, which requires an accentuation of the nationwide strategy in the context of changing communication architecture (information and telecommunication technologies, digitalization, neural networks, neocybernetics, intelligent robotics), especially in the field of security.

Conclusions During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, international relations were the results of the military-political, socio-economic and socio-cultural activities of different states, which were characterised by the involvement of the political elites, aggressive media pressure, and social instability in the process of East–West information war. With the rapid increase in the amount of information, catastrophic changes occurred in public consciousness. They were related to individual insecurity, breaching democracy and human rights, information violence, cyberbullying, increased level of international terrorism. They affected the transmutation of the axiological potential of a modern person, which became a strategic resource in the process of globalization and replicating violence in the information society. This information expansion (information war) has led to large-scale changes in the security sphere using information and network technologies. During the pandemic, destructive tendencies (transformational, military-political, economic, anthropological crises) dominated in international relations, as well as violent methods of informational influence on society, which actualized the problem

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of information security, which is an integral part of the national security of the Republic of Belarus. It is necessary, if possible, to minimize the destructive informational impact on the individual, society, the state (cyber attacks, cyberbullying, low level of media culture) and develop a scientific conceptual apparatus, whose content in a more adequate form would reflect the essence of structural transformations of the security sphere, since “the modern person is forced to seek some form of self-defense that allows him to survive in the conditions of information and psychological warfare deployed in the media and social networks” [23, 24]. In the situation of the coronacrisis, when information and telecommunication technologies totally controlled the impact of the infosphere on public consciousness, the information society was threatened by instability and lack of sustainability/resilience. The aim of administrators is not to allow this situation during new possible epidemiological hazards.

References 1. Sokolova SN, Sokolova AA (2017) Axiological meaning of safe human existence: safety sigma. In Sokolova SN, Sokolova AA (eds) Bulletin of Polessky State University. A series of social sciences and humanities, no 2, pp 24−29 2. Chumakov AN, Korolev AD, Dakhin AV (2013) Philosophy in the modern world: dialogue of worldviews. Problems of Philosophy, 1, p 3 3. Once again about the security architecture (discussion). Rossiyskaya Gazeta. October 15, 2010. Since 13 4. Huntington S (2006) Collision of civilizations, trans. from English. T. Velimeeva. M.: AST: AST MOSCOW, p 393 5. Granin Yu D (2014) Modernization of Russia: in the track of “dependent development”. In Granin Yu D (ed) Questions of Philosophy, no. 4, p 22 6. Sokolova SN (2013) Interethnic aliens. In modern Russia, Political education: information and analytical journal. Access mode: http://www.lawinrussia.ru/node/291558 - free. - Title from the screen (date of access 12.12.2014) 7. Sokolova SN, Sokolova AA (2013) Values of modern youth and marginal security. Dovgirdov readings IV: trends in the spiritual and moral development of modern society: materials International Scientific Conference/ [State Scientific Institution “Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus]. Minsk: Law and Economics, pp 348−351 8. Kiselev GS (2015) Illusion of progress. In Kiselev GS (ed) Questions of Philosophy, no. 4, p 14 9. Sokolova SN (2013) Phenomenology of safety of modern society. Monograph. Ed. 2nd supplemented and revised. - Minsk: Center for System Analysis and Strategic Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus 10. Sokolova SN (2014) Security sphere and boomerang effect in russian society. In Sokolova SN (ed) Problems of security of the Russian society: scientific and practical journal, no. 2, pp 58−64. The same [Electronic resource]. Access mode: http://smolensk.miit.ru/sj/images/sto ries/arhiv/2014/%E2%84%962-2014.pdf 11. Sokolova SN (2016) Information security: network-centric military actions and hybrid wars in modern society. Bulletin of Polessky State University. A series of social sciences and humanities, no. 2, pp 69−77 12. Borshchov NA (2010) Information violence—mechanisms and typology. In Borshchov NA (ed) Humanization of education, no. 2, pp 66−72

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13. Sokolova SN (2017) Culture safety of modern society and axiological matrix of personality. In Sokolova SN (ed) Bulletin of Polessky State University. A series of social sciences and humanities, no. 1, pp 66−72 14. Sokolova SN (2017) Spiritual safety of society and culture of modern personality. In Sokolova SN (ed) Bulletin of Polessky State University. A series of social sciences and humanities, no. 1, pp 48−56 15. Viktorov A Sh (2008) An introduction to the sociology of security. M., p 40 16. Threshold barriers on the way of Belarusian innovations (2011) Science and innovations, no. 12, pp 39−40 17. Sokolova SN (2008) On Russia’s strategy to ensure political security. In Sokolova SN (ed) Power, no. 4, pp 70−73. The same [Electronic resource] Access mode: http://cyberleninka.ru/ article/n/o-strategii-rossii-po-obespecheniyu-politicheskoy-bezopasnosti, free - Title. from the screen (Date of treatment 12.16.2014) 18. Lukashenko AG (2019) Building a new planet—without terrorism, honestly, openly and fairly! In Lukashenko AG (ed) Belaruskaya Dumka, no. 9, pp 3−9 19. Sokolova SN, Sokolova AA (2017) The sphere of social security and hybrid wars. In Sokolova SN, Sokolova AA (eds) National philosophy in the global world: theses of the First Belarusian Philosophical Congress/ National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Institute of Philosophy; editorial board: V.G. Gusakova (prev.) [And others]. Minsk: Belaruskaya Navuka, p 406 20. Ismagilov IF (1998) National security perspectives. Kazan, pp 110−111 21. Sokolova SN (2013) Phenomenology of safety of modern society. In Sokolova SN (ed). Minsk: Center for System Analysis and Strategic Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, p 32 22. Rudakov AV, Ustinkin SV (2016) Transformed identity as a resource of international terrorism and an element of the “Hybrid War” strategy. In Rudakov AV (ed) Power, no. 12, p 15 23. Alekseev AP, Alekseeva I Yu (2016) Information war in the information society. In Alekseev AP, Alekseeva IYu (eds) Questions of Philosophy, no. 11, pp 5−14 24. Przhilensky VI (2013) “Reality”: socio-epistemological research. In Przhilensky VI (ed) Questions of philosophy, no. 9, p 100

Part V

Necessity in Unprecedented Administrative Decisions

Chapter 14

Online Learning: The Only Future Scenario of Global Education in Post-COVID Era? Oleg A. Donskikh

Abstract The Chapter discusses the preliminary results of the forced transition to ubiquitous online learning in the higher education system during COVID-19 pandemic. The ideology that determines this trend is considered. The increase in the control of both teachers and students by the developers of online learning platforms and possible consequences of such an increase are analysed. In the postCOVID era, it is highly likely that many universities will be looking for suitable forms of supplementing traditional forms of education with distant learning. At the same time, the general trend is a steady growth of online learning (independently of the epidemiological threat) with significant variations across the countries (USA, Australia, Germany and China are analysed). Temporary and longer-term problems associated with the transition to distance learning are considered. The possible wide substitution of conventional courses by the recorded ones is investigated, especially in the virtual reality format, which would allow one to exercise complete control over a student’s personality. Finally, the control of educational activities is discussed, which makes it possible to record any actions and states of all participants in the process. The Chapter is a reaction to the beginning of the process of widespread introduction of online technologies (April 2020) with unfolding COVID-19.

Introduction Thanks to the COVID-19 virus, an educational “experiment” of the transition to online education is now taking place with very important and far-reaching consequences for Russia, Europe and some other countries. This article focusses on three problems that are fundamentally important for society in the context of this experiment. First, online learning as a trend that is gaining strength in different countries O. A. Donskikh (B) Novosibirsk State University of Economics and Management, Kamenskaya St 56, Novosibirsk 630099, Russia Department of Philosophy, Novosibirsk State Technical University, 20 Prospekt K. Marksa, Novosibirsk 630073, Russia © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_14

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of the world. Second, the ideology behind the activity to promote online learning. Third, the possibilities of the new level of controlling a person (both a student and a teacher), the situation revealed in the process of this experiment. In an eye-blink, students, school teachers and university professors were separated from each other and began to communicate using various communication methods. Of course, the outcome for the educational system will be clearer after the end of the pandemic. At the same time, few people doubt that the quality of education has significantly decreased since the global transition to the distance learning. This may be explained by the absence of good substitutes for offline teaching. Besides, the restructuring of educational system occurred at the end of the academic year, and only with the beginning of the new term, certain points became clear. But more important is the question, what can the online learning give when properly organised? How should it be organised so that the quality of education does not decrease? What advantages does it have over the regular, offline education?

Pre-COVID Growth Trend in Online Education Let us turn to some statistical data. In recent years until the COVID-19 crisis, online learning in the United States has grown steadily, gaining acceptance from students, faculty members and employers. Leading American universities have been actively developing the proportion of online education, embedding online courses in their curricula, seeking to make them more flexible and individualised [1]. In 2018–2019, 30–33% of students studied online, 30–33% full-time, and 30–33% had a combined education [2]. Of the “online” students, 29% were enrolled in associate degree programme, 42% in bachelor’s programmes, 27% in master’s programmes, and 3% in doctoral studies. The most popular online programmes were MBA and other business-related degrees in various fields (electronic, consulting, IT, etc.) At the same time, there is a clear dependency: the higher the prestige of the university, the fewer students study online. Ivy League universities offer online courses and most of them are free, while in other universities many students combine online and offline education. The largest increase in online courses was observed in public colleges and universities (7–8% per year). Two thirds of online students were students of public universities. There are universities that offer bachelor’s and master’s programmes completely online withal. Usually they cost about half the price of regular offline programmes. In Australia, 13.4% of students study completely online (in undergraduate and graduate programmes). Online university education takes 25.5% there. The Australian online education market was about 4 billion AUD in 2018 and is expected to grow at an average of 8% per annum to exceed 7 billion AUD by 2024. In general, online courses is more often chosen in postgraduate, including master’s, education as well as additional vocational education, rarer in bachelor’s education.

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Some analysts predict that the online education market in Europe will grow by 15% over the next five years [3]. The part of distance learning in various forms is increasing and there is an increase in online education by 24%. Private universities and some new online educational service providers are increasingly focussing on this area [4]. Interestingly, the tuition at public universities in Germany is free, but this does not always apply to online courses. Online courses usually supplement continuing educational courses at public and private universities. There are prestigious online universities in Germany. E.g., IUBH is one of the best private universities with a high quality of education and an emphasis on management, business and management specialities. The university offers a large portfolio of distance learning programmes. IUBH Fernstudium has about 30,000 students. Seventy percent of learning involves self-study. IUBH is the first German university to create English-language study programmes specifically for international students [5]. In 2019, the online education market share in the higher education sector was around 50% [6]. China’s Ministry of Education says there are over ten online platforms in China with over 460 universities offering over 3,200 online courses. The number of online course participants is over 55 million in PRC now [7]. In Russia, a National Open Educational Platform is being developed, which will be discussed below. The data presented demonstrate an obvious trend in a steady growth of online learning and active search by universities for the optimum ratio of online and offline education. The obvious advantage of online courses can be seen primarily in the system of additional education, when a specialist who already knows how to acquire lore, receives additional professional qualification. With regard to fundamental education, it is difficult to overestimate the opportunity to attend courses taught by the best specialists in certain fields. Another advantage is that online education is not location-specific. Last but not least, it is cheaper than traditional classroom training. The coronacrisis led to rapid transition to online learning in the global context. Thanks to this transition, we started to treat it as a possible long-term perspective and as a real competitor to the regular classroom learning in the future. Many social aspects of this situation need be comprehended.

Different Types of Pandemic-Related Challenges to Education System The challenges to the education system can be divided into temporary issues, i.e. those that can be gradually solved, and permanent, which lead us to discuss the serious limitations and disadvantages of this new online system whose emergence was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Temporary challenges include the problem of inequality of learning conditions. It is well formulated by Beth McMurtrie. According to her, transferring of classes to the online mode during COVID-19 highlighted existing inequalities. We have invested millions of dollars here in computer labs and creating an infrastructure so they have access to technology. But now that they are remote, the number of our students who did not have laptops, who did not have Wi-Fi ability back in their homes, who did not have dedicated spaces, wherever they were, that was appropriate for the kind of intellectual engagement expected of them, that just won’t work [8].

In other words, the same learning conditions for everybody when attending standard classes in equipped classrooms have been replaced by different electronic and computational powers in different homes. This is a challenge, but it can be potentially solved by the improvement and cheapening of electronic equipment. The problem of changing the nature of communication during online learning is more serious. The use of video conference systems such as Zoom, Skype, TrueConf, Google Meet, etc., which simulate “normal,” face-to-face communication, gives the illusion of presence. However, it quickly turns out that such a communication turns out to be much more mind exhausting and less effective. Jeremy Bailenson, Professor of Communication at Stanford University and Founding Director of the Virtual Human Interaction Lab, notes that there is something inherently depleting about video chats, In the real world, when someone gets that close up, we get aroused. There’s probably some type of a conflict situation, from an evolutionary standpoint — or we’re going to be intimate with them [9].

Using Zoom, at least with its standard settings, means looking directly into the faces of other people at close range. This is not at all what people do in class, during a “regular,” offline meeting, or in most social situations. It turns out that replacing real communication with virtual is inadequate and requires more effort with less effect. Most importantly, it brings on considerable psychological stress. The distant way of communication during online learning has negative impact on reading and on communication processes, on the whole. Emma Pettit, referring to a survey conducted among students at Elon University, says that students cannot concentrate on reading. The same is the case for professors who find it difficult to concentrate even on student work. As a result, teachers set shorter passages and send podcasts and videos to their students instead of extensive text excerpts to read. Teachers state the fact that they cannot communicate well. This naturally leads to stress [10]. In any case, it is clear that simple replacing classroom activities with video conferencing activities does not work. Therefore, it is necessary to limit the use of Zoom to small groups and to relatively short time periods [11]. It is clear that different educational technologies are necessary in such online communication than in conventional teaching. Another negative effect of online learning is the rise of deliberate deception. It is very easy not to be present at the lectures remotely, to read the text from the screen during the exam, and to download the required works from the Internet. Learning

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may become the global imitation. It is not unexplainable that during COVID-19 teachers began to work more and the quality of teaching deteriorated. In general, restructuring the usual ways of communication can have significant long-term consequences. A research by psychologists is needed here to assess what balance of online and offline communication is acceptable without losing the quality of education. The difficulties educational system faced, raised two related but different questions. • how much can the use of ready-made online courses replace lessons, lectures and seminars that are held in the classroom in the presence of a professor? • is it possible to switch to online learning on a larger scale?, i.e. what is the use of creating virtual reality for the education system as a substitute for the customary teaching technologies? In Russia, the answer to the first question is closely related to the demand for the National Open Education Platform, which offers more than 500 free courses from Russian top universities. Since the novel coronavirus virus did not coordinate its actions with the work on promoting these courses, but rather established its own rules from the middle of the learning term, it was almost impossible to switch to these courses in a short period. Teachers were forced to use only the material that could be easily integrated into the online educational process. Therefore, the full and high-quality use of the National Open Education Platform is a matter of the future. Anyway, the coronavirus instigated the world education systems drifting towards increased digitisation.

Ideology of Online Learning as Highest-Quality Educational Paradigm If we consider distance learning a crude substitute of the face-to-face education that temporarily replaces a fully fledged learning process due to some force majeure, this would eliminate the whole set of problems. However, during the coronacrisis, an ideology of online learning emerged as an innovative form of education, that must replace the obsolete, “traditional” forms of education by degrees. The economic aspect of this ideology should not be overlooked. The development and promotion of online courses is a huge market and, accordingly, it attracts huge funds, amounting to dozens and even hundreds of billions of dollars per annum. Naturally, the competition for these funds is tense. It is obvious that this struggle will be waged by any means, including through all kinds of forged evidence that digitalisation and online learning would help education to achieve a new, better level. The orientation towards merely economic indicators is very dangerous in this case. At one time, Robert Kennedy said about GDP,

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It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile [12]. Stephen McCloskey notes correctly that in the current conditions it is necessary to re-think the economic foundations of our development He believes that the COVID19 pandemic should be a barrier to a purely market economy in those areas that are not completely controlled by private capital, viz. healthcare, education, utilities and transport [12]. Supporters of the neoliberal approach, considering education a mere service along with other types of services, suppose that a new pedagogical system is currently being formed, based on the use of new technologies. It means that we are talking about the inevitable revolution in education, comparable (1) with the transition from purely oral teaching to teaching, where the oral word is supplemented and mediated by the written word and (2) with our entering the Gutenberg Galaxy. Modern electronic technologies have radically changed the ratio of the oral and written, dramatically increased the ability of man to transmit not only voice messages, but also sound and visual information, i.e. absolutely exceptional communication opportunities appeared. The very situation of instantaneous availability of information radically changes the nature of the relationship between teacher and student. However, the widespread use of distance learning technologies leads to very serious consequences that are far from obvious. Those who actively promote the idea of an increasingly active use of online educational platforms completely disregard these consequences. The process of switching global education to the online mode, is taking place under the ideological slogan that digitisation of every scope of our lives is inevitable. An obvious and deliberate substitution of meaning can be traced here. From the facts of the introduction of new technologies into various production and logistics processes and the universal use of smartphones in everyday life, it does not at all follow that digitisation is inevitable in the education system. The transfer of education system to digital area is not at all a spontaneous process, but a policy pursued by those homo oeconomicus who consider only short-term tangible benefits (mainly financial “effectiveness,” i.e. capability of education system to generate maximal return on investments, or ROI) and neglect longer-term negative impact on education that is not obvious now-a-days. Free access to the lectures of the best professors is wonderful, by any means. However, many textbooks were written by the best professors, but the presence or absence of these professors does not eliminate the necessity in lectures given by probably less outstanding academics. It is always necessary to prepare the ground for the perception of the cutting-edge material in any science. This ground is the ability to study independently. The ability is usually formed in school and continues to be refined at the university level. The role of teachers and other educators cannot be overestimated here. In addition, strong motivation for the acquiring new knowledge is needed, i.e. the focus on knowledge in a certain area, when a person knows exactly what he or she wants to obtain from an informational source or mentoring course. In this case, to be sure, online courses are a convenient instrument. Such courses help to broaden the horizons of those who are interested in general knowledge in various

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fields. But to orient the whole education system towards distance learning, without understanding the long-term consequences of such a transition, is at least reckless. In his pretty harsh article written in May 2020 Requiem for Students, Giorgio Agamben stated quite clearly, We are not so much interested here in the consequent transformation of teaching, in which the element of physical presence (always so important in the relationship between students and teachers) disappears definitively, as we are in the disappearance of group discussion in seminars, which was the liveliest part of instruction. Part of the technological barbarism that we are currently living through is the cancellation from life of any experience of the senses as well as the loss of the gaze, permanently imprisoned in a spectral screen. Much more decisive in what is taking place is something that, significantly, is not spoken of at all: namely, the end of being a student [studentato, studenthood] as a form of life [13].

There are two contradictory approaches to education. The first regards education as the creation of a personality. The second treats it as a means of forming a specialist, i.e. a professional in a definite narrow field. The ideology of inevitable digitisation is undoubtedly focussed on the second approach, especially since it is also fuelled by a completely irrefutable argument that the choice of a profession determines the material success in the future life of a person. On the contrary, the first approach is mainly focussed on the creation of an autonomous personality. It is noteworthy that the developers of digital educational platforms usually present themselves in an ideological way as constructors of the most proper conditions for optimal and balanced personal development. In fact, they produce a something that works in the opposite way, forming a person completely dependent, psychologically imbalanced, and incapable of making reasonable and rational decisions. Plato was once arguing about the danger of books that are available to laymen, and not just to those who are ready to accept them. The absolute availability of information not only profanes the value of this information, but also creates the illusion of knowledge in a situation where there is no knowledge. V. Zinchenko states in this context, Knowledge is often confused with experience or understanding, or information, or reflection. In addition, genuine understanding, erudition and awareness are often mixed up. According to a commoner’s opinion, the borderlines between them are highly blurred, just as the boundaries between knowledge and information. Nevertheless, the stints exist. Knowledge is always someone’s knowledge. It cannot be bought, stolen from someone who knows (perhaps together with his head), while information is no one’s territory, since it is impersonal, it can be exchanged or stolen. This happens rather often [14].

Acquiring information and acquiring knowledge are deeply different processes. Knowledge becomes an integral part of the personality, while information only temporarily replaces knowledge in a certain situation. If, answering a question of a test, a student simply reports what he “googled” at the last minute before the exam, he does not answer the question based on his own understanding. He did not delve into the depth of the problem touched in the question. As a consequence, the learning process turns into imitation for him. For this student, the learning process is aimed merely at fostering absolute dependence. In this case only short-term memory is trained, while long-term memory remains out of the game. The orientation towards

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individualisation and full accessibility of information lead to the formation of a person, whose worldview turns out to be so fragmented and flat that any addition to it only increases its fragmentary character and size, but does not form a system of it. The lack of consistency and multidimensionality that are usually represented in generic relations, does not imply questioning or oral discussion of serious topics that require clarification and involve long-term memory [15]. The transition to distance learning is declared with unknown consequences for both personality development (psychological consequences) and the existence of society (social consequences). We do not know the longer-term effects of the widespread introduction of distance technologies at every level of education. There is an accelerated transition from learning in conditions of gradual socialisation (communication at school and university) to online learning under the hypocritical slogans of improving quality. Despite all such well-meaning slogans, one thing is obvious so far. The fast and compelling introduction of distance technologies in education leads only to the new inequality of society: face-to-face training is gradually becoming a privilege of the ruling class.

New Education-Related Ways of Personal Control? The discussed ideology makes education a purely market phenomenon. Within such an ideology, the complete transfer to the online education mode is logical and worthwhile, as it offers such high ROI as the customary, face-to-face education could never do. But the ideology of client-oriented education, where the student is the customer and the teacher is the one who provides “services,” questions the very essence of education. In Russia, the focus on Western trends in the development of online learning does not take into account the fact that the graduates of Western schools, on average, are much more independent in choosing their future profession than the Russian graduates. Besides, any national education system is different and has its own peculiarities. Each educational system formed its own ways of education most suitable for the national culture. In education, general trends do not work. The main goal of education was and is the creation of a person free, reasonable, sensible and capable to learn constantly and independently. Instead, the ideology of the developers of online learning platforms is primarily aimed at the complete control over a student. Recently dismissed from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, D. A. Solodovnikov was responsible for the creation and development of digital platforms. An excerpt from his interview reads, The task of secondary education is, one way or another, to ensure the relationship between the school and the university, to bring the student to graduation and then through the exam to ensure his admission to the university. During his studies, a student forms a digital profile, thanks to which we can understand what inclinations he is developing, what he will strive

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for. This, firstly, will help eliminate abuse when passing the exam, and, secondly, by understanding the student’s inclinations in his/her digital profile, psychologists or other consultants will be able to help the student to choose a profession more consciously. Indeed, during the study, the data are accumulated, and this is not only an electronic diary, it is also the materials that the student used in the learning process, and the results of his/her project activities. All this remains into the digital profile forever [16].

In this extract, we must pay attention to the two facts. First, the secondary education is not considered as a something complete. Second, the obvious focus is present on the complete control over a student—of course, with the hypocritical reservation that this is just for his or her own good. A statement that someone outside the family will direct an adult or adolescent student to what he/she strives for, but does not fully realise this, sounds as a something egregious. It is worth referring to the text of the Manifesto on the digital educational environment, which proclaims that “The goal of education is not the assimilation of knowledge, but the development of personality” and that “Individualisation is the highest good and a starting point,” Now-a-days, learning is primarily obtaining information come from the outside, i.e. by a programme, teacher or standard. In the digital environment, a student’s activity becomes a unit of learning... The usual concept of a textbook retains its meaning exclusively as a selection of educational content of different types. It should be replaced by a digital educational environment, where everyone can choose his or her own educational curriculum, consisting of the activities that he or she needs here and now. Their environment, in turn, must continuously monitor and analyse the needs and abilities of the student and offer scenarios for his or her further development [17].

The authors do not even notice how ridiculous the picture looks that they drew. On the one hand, it is about the formation of an individual’s educational trajectory, which should be based on the abilities and interests of the student. But, on the other hand, the parameters of this trajectory will be set by the environment, which acts as an active builder of this very autonomous personality of the individual in question. In addition, we are talking about the activities that are relevant only at this very moment, but it is not clear enough how this will determine future activities and how the abilities of a maturing individual will be taken into account. What about the formation of a system that would take into account the change in this environment? Ideally, the system of complete control over a student must be built, from the viewpoint of the proponents of the digital learning ideology, in especially if we take into account the future technical possibilities of new technologies, Further development of technologies will allow creating flexible individual learning scenarios, when the content of a course is adapted to the speed of assimilation and mistakes of each student. In this case, not only the answers, but also the analysis of his condition will be used as the parameters of the student’s assessment. Using a webcam, you can track the direction of gaze and facial expressions, using a smartphone and smart watch changes in his/her heart rate, blood oxygen saturation, temperature and skin conductivity. Neurointerfaces that already exist on the market and have a good chance of becoming popular thanks to gamers’ activities, will allow analysing an electroencephalogram. All this will give a detailed picture of the learning process of each user, allow you to track the moment of loss of attention and adapt the process of presenting information. Soon it will be possible to turn all this into a well-established technological process with detailed control in real time [18].

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Well, the picture is quite clear. Let us not forget that since it is planned to train teachers in the same way, the transmission of the habit of life under digital control will be ensured.

Conclusions Digitalisation that humanity reached by the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, has already made it possible to exercise a deep—though yet not absolute—control over an educator’s activities. In the future, it may transform into the complete control. In the context of the pandemic, this possible future becomes less fantastic, though not less sordid. Distance learning not only significantly increased the load on conscientious students and teachers, but also included new forms of control in the repertoire of those who supervise the education system. E.g., currently these forms of control may be the requirement to use only those communication tools that would allow one to track the behaviour of a student by means of cameras and video recordings or the introduction of a lesson reporting system with detailing of varying degrees. In the long term, this will lead to a complete unification of the learning process with the rejection of any individual learning programmes, since their implementation is more difficult to control. It is easy to assume that online learning may also become imitating the acquisition of “competencies,” which will be determined by the bureaucratic transition from the knowledge-based approach to the competence-based approach, with a constant senseless change in educational standards. At present, the SARS-CoV-2 virus launched an experiment on getting the world society used to the new digital normality. It also raised the question of whether we want such normality or not.

References 1. The Best Online Colleges & Universities. https://www.learnhowtobecome.org/online-univer sities-and-colleges/best 2. Hobday A et al (2020) Fostering global science networks in a post-COVID-19 World. Oceanography 33(4):9 3. E-learning Market in Europe 2019–2023. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/201901 07005412/en/E-learning-Market-Europe-2019-2023%C2%A0-15-CAGR-Projection 4. Some thoughts on the German Higher Education Market 2018. http://consultcormack.com/ 2018/02/27/thoughts-german-higher-education-market-2018/ 5. On search for IUBH online? https://www.iubh-fernstudium.de/iubh-online/ 6. Revenue of China’s Online Education Market Increased by 25.7% in 2018. http://www.iresea rchchina.com/content/details7_53029.html 7. Across China: Massive open online courses make waves in Chinese education. Xinhua. 19.01.2018. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/19/c_136907421.htm 8. McMurtrie B (2020) What one college president learned about remote teaching by becoming a student. Chronicle. https://www.chronicle.com/article/What-One-College-President/248599

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9. Supiano B (2020) Why is zoom so exhausting? Chronicle. https://www.chronicle.com/article/ Why-Is-Zoom-So-Exhausting-/248619 10. Pettit E, A side effect of the Covid-19 pandemic? Reading got a lot harder. https://www.chroni cle.com/article/A-Side-Effect-of-the-Covid-19/248568 11. Supiano B (2020) ‘Zoomed Out’ Why ‘Live’ Teaching isn’t always the best. Chronicale. https:// www.chronicle.com/article/Zoomed-Out-Why/248401?cid=wcontentgrid 12. McCloskey S (2020) Development education, COVID-19 and neoliberalism. In: Carmody P, McCann G, Colleran C, O’Halloran C (eds) COVID-19 in the Global South. Impacts and Responses. Bristol University Press, Bristol 13. Agamben G (2020) Requiem for the Students D. Alan Dean website. https://d-dean.medium. com/requiem-for-the-students-giorgio-agamben-866670c11642 14. Zinchenko A (2003) Action, Knowledge, Spirituality. Higher Educ Russia 5:81–91 15. Donkikh OA (2018) Why did students stop asking questions? Vestnik Tomskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta-Filosofiya-Sotsiologiya-Politologiya 42:110–117. https://doi.org/ 10.17223/1998863X/42/11 16. Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education Denis Solodovnikov about plans of forthcoming digital transformation. TAdviser. 20 February 2019. https://www.tadviser.ru/index. php/%D0%A1%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8C%D1%8F:%D0%98%D0%BD%D1% 82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B2%D1%8C%D1%8E_TAdviser:_%D0%97%D0%B0%D0% BC%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0_%D0% BD%D0%B0%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B8_%D0%B8_%D0%B2%D1%8B%D1%81% D1%88%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B7% D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BD% D0%B8%D1%81_%D0%A1%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0% B2%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2_%E2%80%93_%D0%BE_%D0% BF%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%85_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0% B4%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%8F%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%B9_%D1%86%D0% B8%D1%84%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%80%D0% B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%86%D0% B8%D0%B8 17. Manifesto on the digital educational environment. http://manifesto.edutainme.ru/ 18. Saraev V (2014) Non-Lenin University of the Millions. Expert 28. https://expert.ru/expert/ 2014/28/neleninskij-universitet-millionov

Chapter 15

Coronacrisis Reconstruction Programmes: Saving the “Global Economy”? Wolfgang Sassin

Abstract During the coronacrisis, a great many of so-called “Reconstruction programmes” were adopted and launched in different parts of the Western world. In the European Union, governments of almost all highly or comparatively highly developed countries adopted such programmes, initially French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel and then a lot of others. These programmes are intended to counteract the far-reaching consequences of an extensive economic and social isolation in the face of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, Corona has undoubtedly been and will continue to be a catalyst that accelerates an inevitable by other factors caused transformation of what we call modern global and universal civilisation. In this Chapter, we examine why investments in global tasks of global economy (e.g. climate protection or in programmes for the comprehensive digitalization of the planet, which is also the aim of the coronacrisis reconstruction programmes), will not eliminate the obvious structural distortions in the world economy caused by the acting individuals of the first two decades of the twenty-first century. The “invisible hand of the market” that could compensate for the drive for efficiency in the individual markets fails and the need for “fair redistribution” of a supposed collective benefit grows as the economic system grows. Social welfare plans, which are nothing but a certain form of planned economy, are no longer able to produce “justice” due to the impossibility to measure the productive performance of single individuals with the one-dimensional scale of money, nor the true needs of “members” seized by this system. Against this background, the actual challenges of a blind global and universal civilisation (irrespective of the direction where the Western world deems to lead the planet) are discussed and the necessary disentanglement of a dystopian development is described: the emergence of human mass settlements following principles of livestock farming on a global scale, the phenomenon of information whose value cannot be measured with money, and the distortions caused by demographic imbalances between services and needs in the human relationship structure.

W. Sassin (B) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Technical University Vienna, Jochberg 5, Thiersee 6335, Austria e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_15

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Introduction Coronacrisis not only caused “malfunctioning” of the global economy, as integral part of the global civilisation, but it revealed the inevitable limits of any globalist attempts in world economy. Many “reconstruction programmes” were introduced for economies of the Western countries heavily stricken by the coronacrisis, that would require influx of dozen billions of “paper” Euro, British pounds or US dollars into them to save the “global economy projects.” In the current Chapter, we focus on analysing the practicability and usefulness of such programmes. We shall demonstrate that the global economy of the global civilisation is nothing else as a dystopia. The coronacrisis caused by the emergence of a new viral pathogen has already led to insurmountable obstacles in recovering economies (for the most part, Western economies) from their reckless and abrupt shutdowns in spring–autumn 2020. In reality, the current crisis did not initiate the destructive processes in global economy already taking place during the first two decades of the twenty-first century. It merely facilitated them. Now the time is come to re-consider the prospects and limits of the global economy of the global civilisational effort carefully. If we look at the “Reconstruction programme” for the European Union, which President Macron and the German Chancellor Merkel are proposing in order to counter the consequences of the COVID-19 shutdown, then it becomes clear what this means for those who will have to provide the actual economic services in the future. Ultimately, the debts and transfers that the Federal Republic of Germany imposes on its citizens in accordance with its participation key in the European Central Bank can only be shouldered by its actual performers. The Federal Republic holds a 21.4% stake in the ECB. The situation is similar to the EU budget of 160 billion Euro per year. Germany contributed 25 billion Euro to this in 2018 and is the largest net contributor. That was around 16%. Assuming an average “liability and participation share” of about 18% this means a burden of just under 17,500 Euro per person to be shifted onto the shoulders of the people actually producing in Germany. Taking into account a tax and contribution rate of about 50% for skilled workers and higher salaried employees, this corresponds to more than five monthly net wages or salaries. In view of all the other debts which have already accumulated in the course of the last decades, which have already led to a largely veiled expropriation of the middle classes in this country, largely via inflation and a zero interest rate policy, it is clear that the social market economy and national economics in its present form have degenerated into religious edifices whose “truths” are worryingly approaching those of sects. In addition, the fact that even politically serious groups are openly demanding property levies, a kind of burden-sharing in order to at least partially remedy the “injustices” in German society, shows the schizophrenic way in which a challenge is dealt with that is hidden behind the almost sacrosanct concepts of globalisation and digitalisation, being praised as great progress.

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Section I. Anamnesis Human relations and economics There are many stories that could be written about human relations, humanism, socialism, material and information exchange. In all of them justice plays an essential role, indeed this idea tries to summarise all interpersonal relationships on another, higher level. Whatever is exchanged in detail connects and commits individuals equally. Institutions mediate between individuals. Individuals, however, are quite different from each other in many ways. This creates problems in any system that seeks to “mediate” between many individuals. In order to avoid the resulting complexity, economists therefore prefer to measure justice simply in terms of “heads,” usually the per capita income or per capita wealth of an average citizen, and declare it the decisive reference value. Some members of a society are then richer than the average, others poorer. A “poor” in a “rich” society can therefore be much “richer” than a “rich” in a “poor” society. Interestingly, modern constitutions do not stipulate the striving for wealth but the striving for happiness. All the more the question arises what rich and poor really mean. This question is all the more critical when one looks back over generations and asks about justice or the gaps that open up between nomads, farmers, cattle breeders, self-employed or employed people—and not only today, but also in the times of Caesar or the Roi-Soleil Louis XIV, after whom the Jacobins wanted to establish “justice” by means of the French Revolution. The sense of “justice” as each individual may perceive it, regardless of statistics and historical periods, remains with the individual [1–3]. It cannot be generalised or “averaged” [4, 5]. It is not the great masses or in the meantime even humanity as a whole that are happy or unhappy. No matter if you are in a jet plane on your way to a wellness resort, or if you have to do the laundry for tourists or even clean the toilets as an employee, rich and poor are always related to special circumstances. They are therefore relative. The economy looks very narrowly at the “citizen.” Economists group existing individuals with special characteristics, abilities and life ambitions according to their special questions. So similar to biology, a taxon is created that can be “delimited” in monetary terms, i.e. a statistically defined unit to which very different individuals are assigned on the basis of a few external criteria. As a result, the idea of an abstract normative system is formed, in comparison to which individuals can only be “defined” as rich or poor. Such abstractly defined “figures,” debit or credit people are perfectly suited for political entertainment. Above all, they are ideal for the justification of paternalism, guided education, the enforcement of politically correct language and even brainwashing by media. Because emotions are supposed to orient themselves by values, by ideas of how community should be lived. Such constructs connect, indeed they create communities of anonymous people in spirit, who would seek to reduce differences between people as much as possible. Natural emotions reach as far as our natural senses do reach. In addition, thoughts wander, condense into assumptions, are laid down in the form of dogmas in holy

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books and thus passed on from generation to generation—until the environment in which the individual finds himself is fundamentally changed, because the herd with which he moves has ventured into alien territories and lost its way there. Then sacred dogmas necessarily fall out of “their” time. Unfortunately, this is also true for any social and societal theory, especially for economics. The quest for efficiency, for exponential growth, for innovation for its own sake, has led homo sapiens to extraordinarily strange territories. That there is a huge difference between a city that two or three centuries ago housed a few thousand citizens and made them “free” and the hot spots of global urbanisation, and even that megacities are no longer cities that make people free, is confusing. “Scientific” dogmas, even constitutions based on the foundation of individual justice, therefore provide as little orientation as the nautical charts with which conquistadors once set off for the New World and went into an unknown jungle in search of the legendary El Dorado, where they lost their way irredeemably.

The Economy of Urbanised Societies The closer unknown people come to each other, whether in the queues in front of supermarket checkouts, in crowded sports arenas, in the traffic jams that build up on public infrastructures or in front of social services, in the emergency rooms of hospitals, or when visiting scarce housing in the hot spots of modern life—densification not only creates shorter distances, facilitates communication, saves precious time, and therefore allows that economic surplus that we collectively worship as growth. Compaction in space and time inevitably also generates frictional losses. It forces standardisation and demands control. Above a certain level it leads to sudden “phase transitions” that release enormous energies because people resist the loss of their individual freedom. The phenomena of phase transitions and changes in the “state of aggregation” are not limited to physical space; they are also found in information space and in the human psyche. With them, apparent “side effects” suddenly become the main thing, the stumbling block. They suddenly and fundamentally change a pressurised mass. Its inner structure changes. In particular, the degrees of freedom of the elements that make it up change discontinuously. The “excess energy” of a mass in phase transition must be dissipated, “fractions” must be “separated” from each other. They disturb the internal order of the “condensing subjects.” At the end of every “fair” mass event, the consequences of such social phase transitions can be seen, the more spectacularly such an event has taken place. Classical economics cannot grasp all these phenomena of modern urban densification, it is not even able to really explain them. Economics knows sectors of exchange, but not those “beings” who, for whatever reason, exchange with each other, materially or spiritually. The causes of fundamental changes in the structure of civilisation and thus of society are therefore outside its “field of expertise.” Consequently, the economy cannot “evaluate” the gain or loss of freedom of action associated with urbanization within this system. It restricts itself to recording “services” that are

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exchanged as “products.” The traffic congestion that has become part of everyday life in conurbations, the efficiency of “supermarkets” whose hinterland is constantly growing and forcing customers to be more “mobile,” the drive of “city dwellers” to relax in the countryside or even to fly to foreign coasts during their holidays—they compensate for what is taken away from them by “the others” in the black hole of a metropolis of millions namely: peace and quiet, access to a fascinating and challenging nature and the feeling of being the master of their own lives. Therefore, the gross national product, to make a simple comparison, measures the temperature in a pot. The temperature says nothing about the reactions of its contents, whether it is already close to boiling point and will soon boil over. To do so, one would have to know which mixture of substances is in the pot. This is why it is difficult to compare places of extreme densification such as New York or London with Johannesburg, Calcutta, Paris, Lagos, Djakarta or Shanghai and the living conditions prevailing there. As markets specialise and globalise, the link between producer and consumer is lost. This link only ensures a sustainable balance between supply and demand, but not a price that is formed with the help of subprime loans. No technical device would work if it were constructed according to the theories of Keynes, or the principles of central banks which, with the accumulation of debt, increasingly separate these two types of actors [6–11]. And even if this form of political manipulation of the market mechanism based on “justice arguments” were to be avoided, in every market there are “winners” and “losers.” Some get what they want, others necessarily go away empty-handed in the market. This does not only apply to those circenses in which modern gladiators receive far more money than presidents or chancellors who are supposed to serve a whole nation. Gladiators, however, have to live with the risk that their team might lose the ranking in a top league overnight. And unlike politicians, gladiators are not entitled to lifelong pensions. Is the market unfair because of this? Or can the desire for “more and more for everyone” only be fulfilled by correcting the necessary distribution of scarce goods via the market through social redistribution? After all, the desired effect of every market is to promote the specialisation of production and better use of fundamentally scarce resources—and thus to oust from the market those actors who work less efficiently and therefore must offer their services at uncompetitive prices. Efficiency and optimisation are maxims in economic thinking, which presupposes social and cultural conditions, conditions which the economy cannot create but very well endanger. The attempt to draw conclusions about the actual needs of people from individual “bartering” actions, and even to define people as homo oeconomicus, is just as tempting as the idea of using Newton’s law of gravity to explain the development of a planetary system, the emergence of suns, supernovas, galaxies or even black holes that determine entire galaxies and their structures. Many-body systems are not determined in their temporal evolution, as Newton’s laws are only able to predict the movement of two masses in an otherwise empty space. This also applies to the relationship between two people and their “environment,” whether it be a small, manageable village or the entire planet with its billions of inhabitants.

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The environment determines what is economically feasible in detail or what runs counter to the needs of the individual. The development of village communities into urban agglomerations, the development of largely self-sufficient “national economies” and their colonial expansion to world markets on a planet on which almost 8 billion people have now fundamentally changed physical, chemical and biological processes, requires an unbiased and critical look at the highly confused structure of ideas of modern economics [12].1 In this statistical approach, what causes the exchange between individuals and what regulates it—Nobel prizes or no Nobel Prize—is lost. This also challenges the political ideas underlying Europe’s rise and, ultimately, its dramatic decline in the twentieth century. The modern, economically dominated model of society that once carried this old Europe around the world and which is now being copied everywhere as a hybrid between capitalism and socialism, as a politically negotiated compromise between market and planned economy, no longer functions properly, and above all it is no longer convincing. Where could the future of this model lie, in its narrow economic as well as in its further political implications, if we have to accept that eco-social market economy can only “negotiate” shortages in the already overcrowded spaceship Earth, the more the more passengers it accommodates, the more equal people want to be and the more “rights” they demand. It is no longer a matter of “advantages and opportunities” that markets can “auction off” to the highest bidder. No market can sell “disadvantages” and restrictions, and certainly no territorial, ideological or legal boundaries, to the highest bidder and thus get rid of them. On the other hand, no “plan” can shift physical, chemical and ecological boundaries, in particular natural instabilities cannot be prevented; a dilemma when general economic growth and natural boundaries collide, be they finite resources or supposed “crises”, such as sudden climate changes or abrupt changes in ecological balances.

Economics in the Digitally Modified Information Space The challenge of meanwhile supercritical urban densification and the associated loss of freedom and personal responsibility of the individual is joined by another kind of disruption that cannot be grasped and controlled with the methods and instruments of 1

In their article “More prosperity without growth?—A Book-Report about the necessary “cultural change” in the economic guild. the authors Alexandra Palzkill and Hans-Jochen Luhmann have dealt with the economic mainstream and its limits of possible insights. Das Gespräch aus der Ferne, issue no. 402 I/2013, pp. 28–33. They state that»after two world wars in the 1950s, a conversion of the expansionist urge of the industrialized countries of western character became apparent. All energy was put into the economy. Their societies were, so to speak, head over heels for economic growth… «Soon it became clear that this economic growth would bring more costs than net benefits. The authors’ research concludes that the side effects have caught up with and overtaken the intended gain in prosperity, and further:»…that the dominant culture of academic economics… now… prevents an ideology-free, simply curious and therefore fruitful approach… to the challenge of an increasing disparity between economic growth and prosperity.«

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classical economics. Digital data processing and communication not only change the business models of individual companies. Disruption, known in the positive sense as Economy 4.0, is changing entire societies. In order to answer the question of the future of the economy, it therefore makes little sense to unroll the history of economic ideas and concepts to date with the conviction in the back of one’s mind that all people are equal. Economic “laws” can never be formulated separately from the special and, in individual cases, highly specific relationships between people, then generalised and timelessly continued. The oversupply of information, which, by overcoming temporal distances, enables a “real time” control of man and machine quasi globally It not only creates a complexity that can hardly be surveyed, but also has an impact on almost all areas of life. This applies to the control of intercontinental production chains, global financial markets and military security systems alike. Digitalisation, and the communication over any distance it enables, have created a situation that is fundamentally changing human perception and thinking [13–19]. This represents a challenge that can only vaguely be compared to the situation in which astronauts find themselves in a space station [20, 21]. There, gravity is completely suspended, and the top and bottom disappear. The natural orientation and control of one’s own body no longer functions according to the laws with which evolution has worked. Although the Internet and the information networks that came into being with it do not have gravity, they have practically abolished time as the phenomenon that separates cause and effect [22, 23]. Algorithms process orders of magnitude more information, and they make decisions much faster than human brains can. This creates a situation the effects of which are actually unpredictable. The risks involved are illustrated by an example that has been repeated more than 10 times in a similar manner. The stock exchanges of this world today process financial transactions worth billions of US $ in a few billionths of a second. A Flash Crash2 whose effects spread worldwide can only be limited by “manually” switching off the autonomously acting algorithms. The “shifts in value” that are triggered by such events cannot be eliminated, however. In the flash crash on Wall Street on 5 February 5 2018, the shift in value for the 30 industrial companies listed in the Dow Jones Index alone added up to an order of magnitude equivalent to Switzerland’s economic output in a whole year [24–27]. The emergence of a fictitious reality has more consequences than the global networking of data streams and their storage and evaluation [28–30]. The environment which can be perceived through the natural senses of human beings, is overlaid by information superimposed by media [31, 32]. Global reporting gives the individual the impression of being basically omnipresent. However, the mediated global environment must be reduced to a few events that are comprehensible to the 2

On 5 February 2018, there was a sudden collapse in Wall Street stock prices. The Dow Jones Index fell at times by 1,600 points. In the course of the day, it still dropped by 1,250 points. Sell orders placed by computer programs which were cancelled immediately afterwards, were identified as the cause,.

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viewer or listener. On the one hand, this raises hopes, on the other hand, it suggests threats that are not existing and cannot be verified by the individual. A general “Welcome Culture” spread by the media as well as a global climate crisis have a decisive influence, for example on real estate, energy and automobile markets via “expectations.” At the same time, they stimulate mass migration and challenge existing social systems; indeed, they divide entire societies. The failure to attribute climate-relevant emissions from emigrants and their descendants to their countries of origin is just one example of increasingly misleading statistics and of a globalised economic mindset for which the information space remains foreign territory. The value of the factor information in a world that has changed as a result is difficult to assess. The economic advantages or disadvantages that arise from this type of information reduction and transmission in the classical areas of the economy cannot really be determined. But they are undoubtedly enormous. They modify existing structures.

Economics of Demographically Disbalanced Societies David Graeber, an ethnologist at the London School of Economics, has already made it clear in 2011 that money, the yardstick by which economists measure the balance of power in societies, can ever only be applied to a narrowly defined group of exchanges. Money anonymises personal debt, makes it “tradable” and thus separates it from the values and hierarchies that individuals must serve if they are to survive, if they want to be born and raised at all [33]. Due to the over-exponential growth of a now global and universal civilisation, the prevailing economic dogma, because of its “onedimensional metric,” necessarily comes into conflict with other, multidimensional human “values,” which are currently undergoing fundamental change, and this very differently in the existing very different cultures. This applies to dramatically ageing and shrinking societies, as well as to those with a high birth surplus and a growing proportion of young people who are little or not at all educated and therefore not very productive. To compare them in terms of per capita income and derive transfer obligations from this manipulates reality to an almost grotesque degree. The exchange of goods and services within certain social groups is not subject to the “principle of liability” in central areas of life. Parents feed their children, they dress them and they “play” with them, but in return they do not expect a “value-based” comparable return for their “valuable” economic potential, which they could realise in “other markets”. Transforming such a personal, economically highly unequal exchange relationship within a family into a state-run “intergenerational contract” “monetarises” basic human values and “expropriates” them in the end, in order to be able to redistribute them supposedly “just.” The same happens with general health and nursing care insurance, with the entire education system, and ultimately with every collective agreement. These conditions in most “developed” societies are contrasted by quite different non-economic debt relations in almost all developing countries. There, the state has not yet appropriated the central task of the family to care for its own members and

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only for them. The economic fate of the old and sick is in the hands of younger and healthy family members. And even there, there is no “price” to be determined by means of a “market” which would balance supply and demand in social interaction. Money as an anonymous, initially always personal obligation to pay off a debt personally, not at some point in time but within certain temporal and spatial limits, cannot be separated without consequences from the ethical-moral relationships between people who actually and concretely act together. Can a community, can a state, which no longer pays its debts, which have essentially been accumulated through social transfers, be taken to court for the theft of precisely those services which it has frivolously or deliberately obtained by means of fiat money, and this with the flimsy argument of keeping general consumption going? Which members of such an “illiquid” community would have to repent in such a case in order not to be punished for violation of several commandments of the Bible in the hereafter? Separated from these mutual obligations between generations of a family, there is an aggravating factor: “markets” function within a closed community where everyone contributes to the common good. A society in demographic equilibrium generally has no problem passing on the supporting infrastructure, such as house and farm or a business from generation to generation. Fundamental transformations that change the structure of a society, especially when they overlap, lead to transformation costs that would actually require huge write-offs in the economic balance sheets. They increase the level of activity, but in no way create the possibility to increase consumption in a comprehensive sense, on the contrary. This applies to the process of urbanisation, to the consequences of digitalisation and to compensatory measures that demographic growth or shrinkage require likewise. Since the end of the Second World War, all of them have been happening in parallel in parts of an increasingly interwoven global economy. And they “divide” city and country, old and young, producers and consumers, who are separated by digital “brokers” and thus no longer come into direct contact with each other on “markets.” In this transformation caused by civilisation there is no overarching market that balances all needs and that could mediate between the mobility market and the market for “rest and relaxation in a healthy nature”. To give a trivial example: Should the mineral oil tax push back the Sports Utility Vehicle, and would the tourism industry not then have to be subsidized by the state because the stress-ridden urbanauts with their children can no longer swarm out to relax in the surrounding area at the weekend? And who or what would then compensate for the loss of “quality of life” of these city dwellers? E-scooters or more lanes for bicycles?

The Anamnesis in Summary The only supposedly socio-economic thinking that emerged after the end of the Cold War and is constantly expanding now crosses every line that can be drawn rationally. It has largely lost touch with the very different culturally developed realities of

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citizens. It not only globalizes and alienates direct interpersonal relationships, which form the basis for every WE. It ultimately dissolves these relationships. In his essay Der offene Kontinent (The open continent), Konrad Liessmann does not compare the idea of the fathers of the European unification with Procrustes. But he does point to the blatant contradiction between the European Union’s alleged openness to the world and the new identity that is supposed to unite it, which can only be established by distinguishing it from those who do not share “our values” [34]. Notably, the idea of the European Unification developed through the idea of the free exchange of goods, then in a second “step in the right direction” by means of a common currency, namely the Euro. So where does the idea of free markets and their extrapolation towards economic globalisation lead us? The Roman Empire did not fail and ultimately perish because of a powerful external competitor. Wilhelm Hankel writes: Rome stands for the first and last world state in our history, the world empire that becomes a world market [35]. Looking more closely, Rome failed because of the combination of strictly pursued economic efficiency and social redistribution in the form of panem et circenses, the latter to give the Roman citizens a feeling of equality. At some point it was no longer psychically able to cope with the associated compulsion for constant expansion and constant growth and the resulting inner alienation of its subjects, and collapsed. Alvin Toffler goes one step further. In his 1970 work, The Future Shock, he describes the then rapidly changing American society and characterises it as follows: Technology as an engine, knowledge as fuel, the behavior of a throwaway society. And concerning the psyche of this “hyper-industrial” society, which»consists of overstimulated individuals, of modern nomads whose senses are bombarded«, he says:»it suffers from decision stress«. He speaks of the emergence of an “adhocratism”, of the fragmentation of the family, of an excess of subcultures, and concludes that»modern civilization, with its ever-increasing abundance of the new, renders irrelevant the traditional goals of our main institutions—state, church, industrial enterprise, army and university« [36]. In the face of all this, Toffler hopes for a “next political revolution” that could consist of a breathtaking affirmation of a democracy that is to be broadened, one that involves as many people as possible in the formulation of their common long-term future. Half a century later it can now be said that the democracy of the future, which Toffler dreamed of, will most probably lead to a situation that already caused the former Roman Empire to disintegrate. Rome’s technical superiority and economic rationale were lost in the then escalating conflict of fragmented sub-societies and in the wake of “mass migration” made possible by the principle of the Pax Romana and the “openness” associated with it. Toffler’s main concern, he says himself, is his relentless diagnosis. He owes a concrete blueprint for a global future. Half a century later, the crisis symptoms described by Toffler can now be found on a global level. The therapy he had hoped for at the time, that more democracy could bring “the economy” and with it the dramatic change in the natural as well as the “human” environment of mankind under control, has simply failed. No complex organism, no social group that has emerged in evolution, no insect state, no herd functions according to the principle of economic efficiency optimisation

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and is controlled in parallel by democratic goal-setting or even democratic limitation of its possibilities. Life is organised exclusively hierarchically. Its existential principle is called precautionary separation from potential competitors.

Section 2: Necessary Corrections in Thinking—a Second Enlightenment on the Fly? Global Economy—as an Extrapolation of Caring Housing In the belief to thereby create a global family, but in fact to stimulate unrestricted competition instead of respectful coexistence of very different models of life and civilisation? Achieving greater goals together through cooperation, specialisation and “investment in the future” raises the question of the “fair” distribution of the increased common output that can be achieved. Such larger goals create specific new WEs. And these WEs must necessarily exclude those who do not actively participate in achieving these goals. Examples of this were once the construction of a fortress, a refuge, or a city fortification. Other examples can be found in the formation of knowledge communities, of universities, and earlier of monasteries. Today these are “commercial enterprises”, some of which provide the basis for the functioning of a now globally spread civilisation “beyond” the state. This becomes clear, among other things, when one asks the question: What can all the traditional secret services and state libraries in the world taken together do, compared to the information processing power of “search engines,” such as those developed by Larry Page and Sergey Brin twenty years ago and made available under the name Google to practically everyone, not just to citizens of the country where Alphabet Inc. is based, to give one example of “beyond” the state. The increase in efficiency through the emergence of such and other “smart enterprises” in satisfying basic needs of life and the resulting “abundance” of time available to satisfy higher needs has made possible what is commonly referred to as development. This development ultimately rests on the investment of “freed life time” of single individuals, but not of “communities”. It enables knowledge generation through basic research, it enables the further development of art and culture. The individual is supported, but at the same time motivated and limited in the endeavor to exploit “the potential thus released”. • By the appreciation of others, i.e. through competition carried out through pomp, through striving to belong to the avant-garde, up to narcissistic behaviour, caused in particular by the openly displayed envy of competitors. • On the other hand it is limited by the accumulated surplus and the shrinking return on investment, and

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• The individual is marginalised and demotivated by the emergence of ever larger WEs. Who could still identify with a pyramid if he could only contribute a few of the millions of stones to its construction, especially if they were unshaped loose material or even those ramps over which the “low-wage sector” had to drag the material upwards and which were then removed again afterwards? Why do we remember Neil Armstrong today, but not the names of those engineers, mathematicians, physicians and chemists who designed and built the equipment that enabled Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins to reach the moon and return safely to Earth 50 years ago? Is the achievement of those in the background really compensated for with the dollars they received from NASA at the time? These and other examples of increasingly anonymous “progress” draw attention to the problem of “global growth,” which is “recorded” as the world’s gross national product. Above all, this “size,” i.e. the Gross World Product, raises the question of the limits of the type of employment thus being grasped and its actual meaning. Does the “progress” no longer recognizable for the individual really consist in circling around the sun in the spaceship Earth a few years longer with more and more billions, and in “producing” material and informational turnover in an increasingly restricted and hectic manner? Is it possible to buy recreation, contemplation, being in nature and being with oneself with money that central banks print almost without limits, money that serves as an “inflationary” yardstick for determining the Gross World Product? There is a growing lack of a humane economic theory for a situation that the Limits to Growth report diagnosed half a century ago [37]. Classical economics apparently remains in the world of yesterday, in that phase in which Europe was able to take possession of the world for itself, at a time when it seemed to be almost unlimited. This economic “doctrine” does not cover the elementary parts of human exchange, which always “satisfies” emotions, i.e. values that are not material and not anchored in time. Beyond ever greater exchange processes that trigger anonymous debts, the question arises as to whether the hyperactivity forced by the eco-social systems that have now emerged does not lead to a general slave existence, first and foremost for those “high performers” whose actual contribution to the well-being of “the whole” and whose inner motivation remains hidden from the Zeitgeist of a consumer society. What if one day the “rich” went on strike, or if rulers with directive competence got tired but did not want to resign, who dismissed existential challenges with the words: We will make it!? What is needed is a new, inherently consistent psycho-economic theory of globalisation, more precisely the definition of its limits, which must differentiate and stabilise the mental climate in spaceship Earth. This is especially true for the “financing of the future,” among other things by claiming that we cannot simply protect the climate and ecology of the planet, but can control it, and this via fiat-money,—a strategy that must not only result in black swans and revolutions.

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The current strategy of economic growth and its metrics is based on the utopian idea that the climate and ecology of the planet is a “product to be created economically” by “Father State,” in this case by the “United Nations,” and that there is a universal and equal human right to it, similar to basic food. The mene tekel on the wall of the temples of globalisation does not point to physical but mental changes in the climate, which have already caused the failure of those who wanted to build the Tower of Babel. If one looks at the dispute in the modern temple halls from a sufficient distance, where the representatives of the various faiths meet regularly, whether at meetings organised by the United Nations or in formats such as the G7, G8 or G20 meetings, then a fundamental overheating of the mental climate can no longer be overlooked. This is made abundantly clear by the activists and representatives of globally active “non-governmental organisations” who criticise these meetings and other major business events, to which the media devote more airtime and more attention than the need to adapt to, especially the need to control the four developments mentioned above urbanisation, growth, demography and digitalization—in an overall approach and not separately.

To the Therapy of the Patient Homo Oeconomicus This leads to the question of whether and how conflicts and the aggressive behaviour based on beliefs and assumptions by smaller and larger groups can be overcome, which will divide societies and may lead to a kind of Global Spring, similar to the Arab Spring that has turned into a bloody autumn? Apparently, the one-way street of “development of societies” chosen with globalisation and digitalisation can only be abandoned according to the pattern of the West if there is an external danger threatening these societies in transformation.3 Indeed, even parts of a society that no longer trust the prevailing doctrines constitute such “external” dangers. Such societies are splitting. They disintegrate from within. These can either be well-organized groups in the underground, in modern societies also economic competitors from other „systems” which conquer the “national markets” and displace or “take over” the companies there. In ancient Rome there were many languages, but above all there were ethnic groups, even entire peoples, who were subjected and then forced to “serve”. As “enemies” they disappeared from the consciousness of the masses the moment they paid tribute or even taxes. 3

In his 2014 book War—What It’s Good For?, Ian Morris attempts an interpretation of the present geopolitical and technological weapons situation [38]. He comes to the conclusion that the situation today is similar to the situation before the First World War. Globocop England had virtually challenged its rivals at that time, especially Germany. The attempt to maintain the dominant position plunged all competitors in Europe into catastrophe. Now a similar constellation is emerging between the Globocop USA and the growing China. In this situation, Morris believes that regional nuclear wars are possible, at the end of which a pax technologica would be possible. He considers the coming decades to be a critical bottleneck in human history.

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An enemy exists only as long as we are permanently reminded of it by the media. This is especially true for “Inner Enemies”. If the explicit threat disappears, because system errors lead to crises for which initially no one can be held responsible, then the collective willingness to live with existing ideological, religious and social differences within the inner world will disintegrate. The striving of individuals for alternative living conditions, the urge of adolescents to evade the influence of the family as much as possible, the search for scapegoats and the fight against authorities gain influence. New paradises and new stories of salvation shall then create new cohesion, a new WE. This is now being propagated by parts of the political elite. But the fact that it is not “Mother Earth” that ensures that today almost eight billion people can live on this planet at all, but only a small minority, namely those people who have laid the scientific and technical foundations for an artificial, by no means self-regenerating civilisation and are preserving them, is one of the fundamental inner contradictions of this new edifice of belief that fascinates the followers of a global society. What could reassure the masses inside and give back a bit of self-confidence and self-responsibility to their members It needs a description of the future of the globe over more than the next three generations, well beyond the end of the twenty-first century. Instead of an open and ultimately goalless and planless drift towards globalisation, a realistically achievable and inherently stable state must be defined as a development goal. The decisive relationship for sustainable development therefore concerns the population densities in regions that can be distinguished from one another in terms of culture and civilisation. There is no “global environment.” There are only climatically and ecologically very different habitats for people who have to adapt to them and at the same time “cultivate” them. “Culture” in this sense means nothing else but a profound and lasting change of natural conditions through the use of technology and thus the creation of efficient civilizing “niches.” New niches are not created by single individuals. They are the result of a cultural WE, which is shared by many and requires a narrative to be carried by all participants, a “history that expresses values”, and creates a common identity across generations. In each of these artificial and, since the development of agriculture, always artificial habitats, there have been and will continue to be climate fluctuations, inevitable changes in the biosphere and, of course, changes in so-called “renewable energies”. Adapting to these variabilities is a matter for the respective civilisational-cultural groups that have created such niches for themselves. It is a phantasm to want to compensate for “natural differences” between tropical rainforests, savannahs, dry and cold deserts on this planet, between lowlands with navigable rivers and direct access to “sea routes” and highlands with their “steep obstacles to mobility” via global social system.4 It is based on the phenomenon of modern “big 4

In 1950–1960 Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev tried to do such a thing, turning Siberian rivers from the North to the South and redirecting water flows in Central Asia. The result was disappearance of Aral sea from the map of the world.

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city life”, which suffers from subcultures due to the lack of distance and ultimately tries unsuccessfully to integrate them into a uniform “urban culture” by means of general “redistribution”. The idea of a globally uniform human monoculture is a dangerous dystopia. It prevents a flexible adaptation to rapidly changing “external changes” of the respective highly different “substrate nature”, as well as that existentially decisive substrate “knowledge and education” which protects the scientific and technical “assets” of the different social units by enabling them to pass them on in an orderly manner and not degrading them to a “free” common good.5 The inherent stability and efficiency of social and political structures are subject to changes over time at least as significantly as those of the highly diverse climatic zones and the various ecosystems of this planet. “Limits to growth” can therefore not be set globally. The recipe for success we call evolution is to explore them and to shift them individually within the framework of the respective “resources,” thus creating sustainable, largely independent civilizational units. The evolution of life, in particular its higher development, does not consist of the unification of “tribes” and “branches” into hybrids, but rather in its branching. The coexistence of different species and genera, of plants and animals, of unicellular and multicellular organisms is determined by symbiosis and parasitism. If anything at all deserves the term “creation”, it is the control, the invisible hand that balances these two conflicting principles. If symbiosis and parasitism get out of balance this always leads to a “mass mortality,” no matter how different the individual triggers and the then following processes may be. There is no doubt that the cultural and civilisational development of man has reached such a critical point. The central challenge of our time is therefore to design a human ecology for man as a multi-billion phenomenon. “Man” as a figure of thought, as part of a species that could develop undreamt-of abilities when combined into a centrally organised organism, it apparently fascinates “elites” in a similar way as the idea of the one and Almighty God once did. Knowledge and technical means, worked out and developed for very special singular needs, but then used billions of times, bring “side effects” with them that not only change the outer world, but the perception of reality, and at some point trigger a break with the images of the world and of man that have grown over thousands of years. Do the motives of people who want to defend their interests or their own lives with stones, then with axes, with bows and arrows and finally with nuclear-powered missiles change just because their weapons differ dramatically in their effect? Does this make people more peaceful or, on the contrary, does it make them more aggressive and, above all, makes them more clairvoyant about what they risk by using their tools? Values and risks that demarcate largely autonomous and special habitats from each other and strict rules that limit symbiotic and parasitic exchanges between these habitats depend on the mental horizons that individuals have explored by trial and error. Both values and risks, however, cannot be extrapolated linearly and applied to larger and ever larger systems, especially when they are “open” and form new, 5

See Sassin, Wolfgang. Reconsidering Europe, a diplomatic initiative. Non-Proliferation of Populations or Active Proliferation of Nuclear Power. 14.7.2019.

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previously unknown structures with increasing size. System Earth is not really about limiting emissions, be they greenhouse gases or, for example, about avoiding the “breeding” and spread of resistant germs via natural transport mechanisms that are able to “migrate” independently of the limits of the civilised system. It is about the inability of herds to organize themselves rationally beyond certain sizes and to get a correct picture of the territory in which they are roaming. Through such extrapolation the supersaur homo sapiensbecomes a God-like humanity, which is angry with itself, which threatens to fall ill and potentially become extinct.6 To realise what really threatens humanity, an individual needs to become aware of the causes of his/her own individual distress More than four billion people live in urban conditions. They live in places of human mass farming, a concept that is irritating; but an image that illustrates the cognitive situation of people who grew up in large cities and “socialised” themselves there. In larger cities, and even more so in so-called mega-centers, the “poorer” people are, the harder they fight for scarce space. Urbanity is the social gravitational center par excellence, which with and through which industrialisation has triggered human migration on a scale that dwarfs all previous “migrations” in history. This is true in terms of the number of people who have made their way to new territories offering new opportunities. But it is especially true with regard to the speed and the dramatic difference in cultural living conditions into which people ventured, driven by necessity, or into which people curiously and courageously ventured. Apart from Antarctica, migration has led our ancestor, the “primitive” homo from the African savannah, to all continents, to fundamentally different climatic zones and to foreign biological environments, where he has been decisively changed [39]. The cultural and spiritual development towards the homo sapiens, forced by adaptation to very different environments, has slowly taken place over thousands of generations. Measured against this, the compulsion of modern man to adapt to the material, but above all to the fundamentally changed physical and mental conditions in the centres of human mass farming is similar to the impact of that meteorite about 65 million years ago. It suddenly changed the distribution of species on the planet. Since the middle of the nineteenth century, i.e. since the invention and introduction of steam engines, railways, airplanes and the associated space-based communication and control systems, around 4 billion people have landed abruptly in densely populated areas that are inhospitable and culturally alien. A further almost 4 billion “in the countryside” are directly or indirectly dependent on a now universal civilisation, which is determined by this highly dense urban habitat. Intellectually, demographically intertwined groups, i.e. family groups consisting essentially of three generations, continue to orient themselves on patterns of thought, on stories and history, and on the traditional values based on them. The latter originate from a time when the vast majority of all people were settled and self-sufficient in 6

Not only phenomena like al Qaeda or the IS (terrorist organisations whose activity is forbidden in many European countries and Russia), but also Greta Thunberg and Fridays for Future, or Extinction Rebellion illustrate this.

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small groups and communities in the countryside or even travelled as nomads in a creation that seemed to them to be a gift. Our edifices of beliefs, our images of the world and of humanity, which are reflected in the constitutions of almost all of the approximately 200 states on this earth, originate from “another planet” which has become alien to us in the meantime, and which we have radically changed in many ways. This dilemma is the root of the almost archaic-looking conflicts that overlap in a way that can hardly be unravelled. They range from religiously motivated bloody conflicts and revolutions aimed at bringing about a change in the political system to economic and currency wars and the ideological alienation between technology enthusiasts and environmentalists. The experience of everyday life for all of them is what the journalist Dankwart Guratzsch describes in the article The Suicide of Cities:»The promise of acceleration that the car-friendly city once gave to the industrial society has been reversed. And it is society itself that cries out for reversal.«7 That it is not enough to find new technical solutions and to diversify “traffic” at the expense of others in order to make human interaction more efficient, in other words, to exchange goods, information and services in ever shorter periods of time and in ever smaller spaces and thus to be able to grow economically without an end, to use Guratzsch’s term, all this leads to the suicide of the urban society. When vanguard loses its way, new goals are needed to save crowd from a definite end In a situation in which mankind suddenly and unexpectedly finds itself on a kind of global spaceship whose cabins are overcrowded and whose engine room threatens to overheat, it would be the central task of science to identify risky maneuvers in order to avoid them in the first place. Current economic theories are reminiscent of the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) program with which the Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft was equipped. MCAS was installed in this model equipped with particularly powerful engines to avoid stalling on the wings during a steep upward flight. This automatic system has apparently caused the crash of two newly commissioned aircraft, first Ethiopian Airlines and then Lion Air. Politicians and central banks are now trying to achieve economic growth at any price with means whose longer-term consequences are unclear. Similar to the pilots of the disaster machines they are not prepared to avoid social imbalances which in an 7

Dankwart Guratzsch: Totale Verkehrsblockade. Der Selbstmord der Städte (The Suicide of Towns). https://www.welt.de/kultur/plus201239634/Totale-Verkehrsblockade-Der-Selbstmordder-Staedte.html 2.10.2019. It should be noted: The city of the present no longer liberates, on the contrary, it develops into a place of human mass farming. This is a consequence of incomplete economic models. Urbanisation, demographic imbalance as a consequence of the reduction of mortality without simultaneous reduction of birth rates, migration in space, but above all between completely different life models, agriculture as the culture of small, independent and largely self-sufficient communities, stands in contrast to urban culture as an anonymous mass of dependent subjects to be organized and controlled by institutions. It is postulated that they have rights and their freedom consists in electing representatives of the people, who load them with bureaucracy and taxes in order to create a society of equals.

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increasingly competitive urban society competing for scarce resources arise precisely because they want to “pull the machine” with ever more gigantic debts ever faster “upwards.”8 The spaceship is not only overloaded, it seems to be in an unstable state due to the use of “boosters.” The problem therefore does not lie first with the pilots, i.e. the politicians. It is up to socio-engineers and socio-technicians, it is evident in both the economic and social sciences. The architects who design new theories of society, who implement new housing, mobility and communication technologies, the administrators of public goods from spatial and urban planning to environmental associations, even the caretaking industry in the medical and legal fields, they are responsible for the patchwork of the spaceship Earth welded together from urban modules. The arrangement of the cabins, their design and the growing number of passengers in them—they endanger the stability of the ship as well as the safety on board, which in case of conflicts on individual decks degrades the bridge to the spectator, especially if it is not the crew that riots, but the passengers get into arguments over trivialities and general panic breaks out. A fundamentally new construction of the Spaceship Earth is needed. It does not simply require bulkheads that must closed properly in an emergency. It needs individual modules that are only loosely coupled to each other and that can separate from each other when necessary and then navigate and operate independently. This leads to the questions: • What are the optimal group sizes that are able to keep each other in check, instead of a global eco-empire in which there are only disordered inner fault lines and chaotic distributional struggles? • How can cooperation be organised in the case of highly differentiated abilities of the individual competing groups? • How can we prevent a new kind of nomadic harvesting of artificial livelihoods from being declared a universal human right? The “natural” planet Earth has been covered with an artificially created platform of civilization, which in the meantime has changed nature fundamentally and not only marginally. This platform of civilisation must be preserved and, over the coming decades, largely disentangled and fundamentally redesigned with a view to the longer-term goal of regional sustainability.

8

Jayati Ghosh: Moderne Tasmanier—Die geistige Isolation von Ökonomen und Politikern des Mainstream gefährdet unsere Volkswirtschaften. Zeit, das neoliberale Dogma aufzugeben. IPG (Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft) 15.10.2019. Jayati Ghosh is Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi and a member of the Independent Commission on International Corporate Tax Reform. She states: “The 2008 crisis should have been an eye opener, but it has failed to shake mainstream economists and politicians out of their self-imposed intellectual isolation.” and she continues: “Since 2008 the central banks of the highly developed economies have printed more than 20 trillion dollars and cut interest rates sharply. In addition, a policy of easy credit has increased global debt by some $57 trillion to more than three times the global GDP” [40].

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The danger does not lie in a significant increase the natural variability of “nature” through emissions, through selective cultivation of plants and animals and the associated “side effects,” such as soil erosion or shifting and reduction of biodiversity. It rather consists in the fact that two thirds of the biologically active land areas of the earth have already been fundamentally changed by “cultures” in the past 7000 years. This change of the planet for the purpose of feeding man using extensive agricultural methods, not only the modern “emissions” of the industrial civilisation of the 20th and early twenty-first centuries, are likely to significantly enhance the climatic and ecological variability in a hardly predictable way. Complex systems always have so-called tipping points where their behavior suddenly and significantly changes. The real problem is therefore not a partially erratic nature that tends to change. The problem are the existing “harvesting systems” of civilisation which, believing in a “sustainable” nature and striving for the highest possible economic efficiency, can no longer adapt to “external changes” and threaten to become obsolete.9 And this artificial civilisational platform, consisting of harvesting systems for regenerative biological, for finite fossil, mineral, and likewise finite regenerative fresh water resources, rests on parts with varying carrying capacities. They were thoughtlessly networked with each other in the course of the Industrial Revolution. The logic of their linkage has so far been provided by an economic theory oriented to the moment, in which long-term provision and internal social stability play no role because they cannot be evaluated in monetary terms. For the different parts and for their exchange, however, a fundamental new mental order is needed, which cannot rely on a benevolent transcendental power, nor on the inherent stability of an ecological-climatic system, whose change, not simply its supposed “reliability,” forms an inevitably fluctuating basis of human life. Their internal order, their economically unused reserves, even the provision of “inefficient insurance policies” must ensure the resilience of the artificial civilisational foundations of life, not only for the most efficient and economical use of the available natural resources. Both pillars of human livelihood are fragile, nature as well as the civilisational systems that currently support the lives of around 8 billion people. 9

One need only ask the question how a modern civilization, which was adapted to the climatic and associated ecological conditions at the end of the last ice age some 10,000 years ago, would have reacted to the rise in sea level by several tens of meters, to the incipient “migration” of the biotopes of that time across continental distances, to the release of greenhouse gases from the huge melting permafrost regions or to the fundamental change in circulation patterns in the atmosphere and in the oceans. About 7000 years ago the Sahara was still a savannah where elephants lived and people kept sheep, goats and cattle. Probably some 10,000 people were able to escape their dwindling “livelihood” by migrating to the Nile valley and developing new techniques there, such as the seasonal irrigation of the less fertile soil and its fertilisation with Nile mud. But for soon 10 billion people, that is a million times more than at that time, there are neither several unused continents that could be cultivated, nor techniques that depend on chemical or biological energy conversions to which earthly life as a whole is adapted. The successful step towards civilization taken by the ancient Egyptians, who were the first to develop an efficient society based on the division of labour, would today only be matched by a radical transition to nuclear energy, especially fusion, which provides one million times more energy per “domesticated” atom than the “renewable” and only apparently sustainable alternatives to fossil energy, namely sun and wind.

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Social forays into foreign territory and property by threatening to commit suicide have triggered a political paralysis of fear. This paralysis of fear makes it clear that the sacrosanct traditional thought and value systems have fallen out of time. Millions upon millions are not looking for new, free land to cultivate “with their hands and the sweat of their brow”. Rather, they hope to be accepted and nourished in the Ark that engineers, scientists and entrepreneurs have built, the Noahs of the industrial and knowledge society. At such a time, new narratives are needed that are appropriate to this situation. What stories are lacking? What is really urgent? • The development of a stable and sustainable mental climate in the individual civilisational platforms of this earth is more urgent than the protection of the natural climate, which is and will remain regionally very different. Should the right to free global migration be derived from existing climate differences? For whatever reasons the climate may change, both natural and mental, anyone who does not take adequate precautions himself and build a solid house and together a solid castle is acting irresponsibly. • A fundamentally new understanding of security is, therefore, urgently needed. This is not about disarmament, but about realistic measures to separate a blind herd of creatures with widely differing abilities, ideas and ambitions. Security does not arise from the growing dependence of all on all others. Rather, it requires largely independently acting and self-sufficient units to be separated from each other, which may only be loosely connected. For emergencies, ships traveling in unsafe waters need bulkheads that can be closed, especially if they are heading for unknown areas. The safety of a “Spaceship Earth” or a Noah’s Ark II, how ever you want to make it clear, is primarily due to the existence and stability of the bulkheads. This amounts to a deliberate separation of the supply systems, as well as the communication and “command structures” in the individual compartments of planet Earth. However, as the example of the Titanic shows, bulkheads are not sufficient under certain conditions. In addition, self-sufficient lifeboats are required, which must be carried along and which run counter to the simple idea of purely economic optimisation. What if, as in many science fiction novels, there was a plea for the landing of a spaceship with aliens who want to share planet Earth with the people living there because their home planet has become uninhabitable. And if the people did not comply with this request, then the aliens would make an emergency landing, with the danger of a development which Herbert George Wells already described in 1897 in his futuristic novel The War of the Worlds, “as the arrival of the Martians.” What other than such extraterrestrials are the still expected, still unborn billions of children and grandchildren of those who are already on the run today, not because the climate is changing, but because instead of investing in knowledge, technology and skills, they have increased tenfold within a few generations, with the help of those who wanted to develop them?

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The Balance of Power between irreconcilable Edifices of Belief: The Idea of Human Rights in Conflict with the Idea od the Individual Right to Reproduce on the Finite Planet As historical experience shows that the fight against the “Other” in the form of capitalists and the rich, who are now seen as exploiters and oppressors from a certain level of their social influence onward, has always led to disastrous results for almost everyone, a new doctrine is now being conceived: Their revelation consists in the possible collapse of the Earth’s ecological and climatic system. This promises good arguments for taking action against “wealth” and “squandering.” To this end, the economic polytheism of the market is to be abolished in favour of a responsibility for the One Earth, before Mother Gaia, which encompasses all people. But what would be the consequences if the faith in Mother Earth were to split up in the same way as Judaism, Christianity and Islam once did [41]? And how would the conflict then be fought out with those who did not want to be converted? Wars of faith were the most brutal and consistent wars in history [42]. It was always about the extinction of unbelief, more precisely of those worshipping other gods, never simply about their subjugation. Today, more than ever, it is about the changed thought structures of homo sapiens. His brain is not only and decisively influenced by the natural environment, but much more by the behaviour of a virtual herd that is technically mediated to him, as part of which he perceives himself as a regular media consumer in the majority of cases. His mental environment and its belief system determine what he believes to be reality. How else could billions be controlled with their instincts, emotions and drives, which have evolved during evolution, than by the story of a new duality: consisting of Mother Earth and her flock of children, i.e. the whole of humanity. What a fantastic thought, if this were not opposed by the experience of two millennia. How then can the only stabilising balance of power be maintained that made possible phases of a tense but non-warlike coexistence by means of mutual deterrence and respect for different convictions—for the life and social concepts of others? How can such balances be restored after globalisation and digitalisation have now almost completely erased all borders without being aware of the psychological consequences of this step? Can disaster scenarios move humanity to cooperate peacefully in an effort to make sacrifices for Mother Earth and stop her panicking? Strategies aimed at disasters require that scapegoats be sought and punished for the sacrilege of nature. But could existential conflicts be avoided in this way and could confrontation and violence for more profane reasons within the herds really be suppressed? In any case, history shows where inquisition and indulgence trade have led whole societies. There is obviously a need for completely new narratives, not a variation of those that play in a lost world, a world whose end was declared by Francis Fukuyama in 1992. The collapse of the Soviet empire and thus of the socialist world view was not a transition to a peaceful liberal, democratic world under the aegis of the remaining superpower USA, as Fukuyama believed. On the contrary, the disintegration of both authoritarian and “democratic” societies began from within.

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As children on the alleged spaceship Earth we do not want to admit that the fate of the Titanic threatens us if we continue to fight for the Blue Ribbon, on the way to a New World that no longer exists, because except for the seventh continent, all other six have been occupied and already “cultivated,” i.e. made subject to man. The vast majority seem to believe that they are on a cruise ship that, only sufficiently technically advanced, will drop us all off at some point on a paradise beach. Moreover, the mainstream economists and with them the political elites seem convinced that the more this ship is accelerated, the more likely it is to reach its destination, the end of history. It is high time to change course, to focus on smaller, less vulnerable boats, to limit their number of passengers and to avoid collisions between such “boats” in an increasingly rough sea by keeping sufficient distance between them. This presupposes that skippers at the helm do not simply orient themselves by polling their passengers and then acting on the maxim It’s the economy, stupid! The idea of a unified earth that outshines everything is in many ways similar to that of ancient Egypt with its pyramids, priesthoods and Nile regulators. In order to move out of today’s “second Egypt” with its skyscrapers, constitutional judges and financial regulators, it is necessary to record and describe without emotion the plagues that will afflict the Spaceship Earth in the next 30 years. Only in this way can we succeed in returning to the bottom of reality, to simple and self-determined sustainable life, i.e. to one or more new Canaans. It was not Moses, but the stories he circulated that paved the way from comfortable slavery to painstaking freedom.

Conclusion It is a necessary considering the appearance of SARS-CoV-2 and the emergence of a pandemic, the “economic consequences” of which will most likely lead to a psychological and subsequently to a political exceptional situation, because the orientation under a global reality decreed from above must fail. In the essay The Limits of Human Cognition and Insight [23], the obstacles that arise when exploring and trying to explain phenomena of the micro- as well as the macro-world are discussed. Technical instruments,—first telescopes, then microscopes, finally flying machines and satellites, especially the development of sensors for electromagnetic waves and particle beams, for which living organisms do not have sensory organs or which they are principally unable to develop because of the quantum energies involved,—have made information about processes and phenomena in the cosmos and in the realm of molecules, atoms and elementary particles accessible to man, which elude the concepts and laws of nature that we humans have derived from our everyday lives and environments. The limitation of our ability to deal with formal procedures appropriately and to “assess” their results correctly on the basis of our values and ethical-moral principles, which is not dealt with in Limits of Human Cognition and Insight, shall be briefly extended here. This concerns on the one hand the “feeling” for orders of magnitude.

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And it concerns the handling of “quantities,” which are not only described by means of doubtful statistical procedures, but whose implicit, even hidden problem is an underlying definition of equality, which is often made arbitrarily due to insufficient knowledge about what is actually aggregated in such quantities. How far does our natural ability to deal with large numbers, gained through practical experience, really reach? In the age of globalization and digitalisation, we encounter large numbers every day in the news, in treaties, in an attempt to judge a measure put forward for discussion by politicians as appropriate or to reject it. We hear about aid programmes of the central banks, which have bought government bonds for billions of euros every month.10 We sign contracts with Internet providers where gigabytes are involved or we buy storage devices to back up our files on our computers with a capacity of terabytes. Finally, we read about the growth of the global population, which has increased from 1 billion to nearly 8 billion people since the French Revolution. Of these, 830 million people have been added in the last 10 years alone. In this new reality, it is therefore necessary to use a simple example to make clear how the “world of numbers”, which is ordered in powers of ten in a quasi hierarchical manner, influences our thinking—and above all what it hides from us: namely, the reference to a reality that is not relative but exists absolutely and independent of what we believe. This points to the dilemma of statistics, which usually record changes in percentages, i.e. in fractions of a situation, assumed to be identified. Whether this assumed existing situation is approaching a fundamental change, a “phase transition” or a collapse, and this with increasing speed, is ignored. We are used to make large numbers “manageable” for our mental calculations by introducing new terms. By mental arithmetic we mean here the ability to intuitively grasp quantities and their meaning, to distinguish them and to estimate their meaning for the individual, be it for oneself or for other individuals. To be able to “control” larger and ever larger quantities we always use new “units”. Starting with the “individual unit”, for example with One Euro, we go over 10 and 100 Euro to a new unit, namely to One thousand Euro. The “thousand” becomes a new, independent term. In the same sense we then move on via 10 thousand euros and 100 thousand euros to the next “power of ten”, namely to One million Euro. The following “unit change” in which we can still think with a hundred and more, but not beyond that, finally takes place at One billion Euro. However, a quantity of 1 billion eludes what our brain can actually grasp on the basis of its everyday processing of external reality. What problems would arise if a person actually wanted to count a quantity of 1 billion elements that are real and not just suspected or boldly put together as equal elements, for example 1 billion people, is demonstrated below using a simple example.

10

From 2015 onward, the ECB has been buying government and private bonds under its QE (Quantitative Easing) program, initially for 60 billion euros per month and later for 80 billion euros per month. By the end of 2018, the sum of these claims monetised to “save the Euro” and “prevent a collapse of the financial markets” amounted to some e2.6 trillion.

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Suppose a billion people would stand shoulder to shoulder and we would walk past them as pedestrians and give each of them a look. How long would a person be on the road until he or she reached the end of this row of a billion fellow citizens? The complication is left aside if dogs or cats, which many take with them as family members, had to be “passed over” by the “official” on his inspection tour. Just to remind, one billion people lived around 1800 at the time of the French Revolution, that moment in history when the idea of equality of all people arose and spread aggressively, at least in Europe, with the glorious French Army led by Napoleon Bonaparte. With an average shoulder width of 70 cm, the imaginary row of 1 billion people extends over a distance of 0.7 m × 1,000,000,000 = 700,000 km. That is 17.5 times the circumference of the earth. A normal person can cover longer distances at a speed of about 4 km/h. Assuming that he would be supported by others in this endeavour, that he would be provided with all the necessary things, with food, with shelter, with medical care, with new clothes and everything that is necessary for an inspection tour along such a human chain, then he could walk for perhaps 6 h a day and that 5 days a week. If one continues to assume that he would still get 2 weeks of vacation from this highly exhausting counting of faces he has to look at in order not to make a mistake, then he would cover the distance of 4 km × 6 × 5 × 50 = 6,000 km in one year. At the end of this first year, he should have reached the number 8,571,429. Consequently he would have to walk 700,000 km / 6,000 km = 116.7 years in order to arrive at 1 billion at the end of his counting. Only very few people live that long. Above all, as a small child and perhaps beyond the age of 60 you cannot permanently be on the road at 4 km/h. A human body, which first develops and then wears out in the course of life, cannot withstand this. More importantly, the brain cannot withstand the monotony of counting up for years without suffering fatal damage. Only such a fortunately only fictitious attempt to work out a practical idea of 9 powers of ten, of one billion, shows what it actually means to speak of the One Humanity, which now consists of almost eight billion individuals. To claim that this is a quantity or a value that our mind can deal with appropriately is bold. Only statisticians develop concepts of something with which they themselves do not really come into contact, but about which they believe they can make “reliable” statements. Winston Churchill has clearly expressed this in connection with numbers of soldiers killed in the Second World War.11 To define the One Humanity, a set of eight billion very different individuals, as a unit with human characteristics, consisting of babies and old people, of illiterate people and Nobel Prize winners, is like trying to calculate the number of souls that had to populate Paradise or Hell since Adam and Eve. Similarly speculative and obscuring reality are the ideas and plans behind the proposal by Merkel and Macron to regain control of the »most serious crisis the

11

The sentence is attributed to Winston Churchill: The only statistics you can trust are those you falsified yourself.

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Table 15.1 Breakdown of the workforce of Germany in 2019 In million

In percent of total population

Employees in Germany in 2019

45,2

54,5

thereof fraction in the public sector

14,3

17,2

remaining

30,9

37,2

Gross median income of employees subject to compulsory social insurance

3000 to 4500 Euro per month

Data are taken from statista.com

European Community has ever faced« —by investing three trillion Euros to mitigate the consequences of the Western incorrect dealing with SARS-CoV-2.12 In order to correctly understand not only billions as an order of magnitude but even trillions, it is necessary to “break down” such a sum to a dimension that is familiar to the individual. Without such a transfer into the usual economic and financial circumstances of a “normal citizen,” the trillions resemble cosmic unknowns. Only after such a “breaking down” can a voter assess what the representatives elected by him decide and expect from him, i.e. whether it is really a “reconstruction program” or rather a “scrapping programme.” To calculate what 3 trillion would mean if related to an average citizen, such a calculation would also include children just born or people who are ill, frail or in care and who are unable to generate the equivalent of the fictitious “purchasing power” thus created with 3 trillion. What 3 trillion Euro would mean for a labour force that actually produces benefits over the course of its life leads to a similar surprise as the attempt to “hike” 1 billion in order to correctly assess the importance of orders of magnitude that politicians and the media deal with as given. According to the data condensed in Table 15.1, only 30,9 million Germans are really productive, the other “employed” fraction amounting to 14.3 million controls the former and helps to distribute to the “needy” about 50% of their usable products, such as food, housing, education and medical treatment. Assuming a rough 20% liability of Germany for European debts this implies that these 30.9 net productive millions are supposed to supply the equivalent of roughly 19,400 e per person in the future, over and above their anyway existing tax load plus social security contributions. The Corona reconstruction programme thus implies to “spend” about 10 months average net income for the productive workforce in Germany—a substantial burden, even if it had to be stretched over a period of 20 years, i.e. half a working life. In history, there have rarely been moments, similar to the sudden appearance of COVID-19 at the beginning of this year, in which the serious shortcomings of 12

Robin Alexander: Acting as Europeans with 3 Trillionen Euro. Die WELT 19.5.2020.

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Fig. 15.1 The analogy between hydraulics and development of modern societies in the situation of globalization of Eurasia and beyond

theories of state and society have become so abruptly apparent. The attached graphic (Fig. 15.1) tries to illustrate the deep conflict that has arisen not only through global labour sharing and intercontinental supply chains beyond a reasonable level. Classical economic interests and the idea of mutual competition inseparably linked to them necessarily lead to a deep conflict with values that arise from the idea that all people were equal and therefore had the same rights. Between the cultures of the nomads and the farmers who settled down some 7,000 years ago, there was an irreconcilable antagonism in the view regarding freedom, property and responsibility for the future. This is still true today. It is pointless at this point to think in detail about what distinguishes today between developing countries, emerging economies and “industrial nations”. As a result of material globalization and above all the emergence of a universal information space which knows practically no boundaries in the sense of privacy and thus fundamentally changes the concept of property, the “exchange” between established social units, both physical and informational, no longer functions as we know it from previous history. A return to “normality”, i.e. to the surveying and control methods with which societies have been kept alive from “above” is therefore highly unlikely. The analogy of communicating tubes, a technique known as hydraulics that can move gigantic weights, makes it clear that “pressure differences” in one part of the world, whether due to economic or other factors, force other parts of the world to build up a “counter-pressure” on their populations if they are not to be “flooded” and their structure radically changed.

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The highly developed administration and organization of the Roman Empire, its civilization which was technically far superior to the “barbarians” at that time, was not able to stop the collapse of the Imperium Romanum. At some point it became too large for its “citizens” to be able to identify with it in practice. In this sense, Bill Clinton was probably right with his slogan: It’s the economy, stupid! But the longer-term consequence of this sentence, which made Clinton once President of the United States, was probably not clear to him or his voters. It apparently took a tiny virus to make it unmistakably clear that investment in global climate protection or programs for the comprehensive digitisation of the planet along the ideas of the recently adopted Reconstruction Programme of the European Union and other similar programmes will not eliminate the now obvious structural distortions of the twenty-first-century society, while the struggle with economic consequences of the coronacrisis must be carried on not by threadbare patches aimed at saving the “global humanity” projects, but switching from the global economy to the economy of Spaceship Earth with well-defined bulkheads—bulkheads that can become impenetrable in cases like the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.

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17. Murrell M (2014) The datafied book and the entanglements of digitization. Anthropol Today 30(5):3–6 18. Sassin W (2020) Globalisierung und Digitalisierung—Die exponentielle Ausbreitung ansteckender Information und deren mögliche Eindämmung. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 3(1):010510201. In German. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.3.010510201 19. Sobbrio F (2018) The political economy of new media: challenges and opportunities across democracies and autocracies. J Dev Perspect 2(1–2):49–61 20. Ríos MÁ, Rivera L, Lujano JB, Veiga JG (2019) Present and future in the mirror of the past: capitalist dynamics, digital technology and industry in the fifth Kondratiev. World Rev Political Econ 10(4):449–483 21. Yu B (2019) A critique of econometrics. World Rev Political Econ 10(2):246–262 22. Sassin W (2018) Die Transformation des sozialen Bewusstseins. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 1(1):010210201. In German. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.1.010 210201 23. Sassin W (2018) Zu den Grenzen menschlicher Erkenntnis. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 1(1):010310202. In German. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.1.010310202 24. Easley D, de Prado MML, O’Hara M (2012) Flow toxicity and liquidity in a high-frequency world. The Rev Financ Stud 25(5):1457–1493 25. Kirilenko AA, Andrew WL (2013) Moore’s law versus Murphy’s Law: algorithmic trading and its discontents. J Econ Perspect 27(2):51–72 26. Madhavan A (2012) Exchange-traded funds, market structure, and the flash crash. Financ Anal J 68(4):20–35 27. O’Hara M (2014) High-frequency trading and its impact on markets. Financ Anal J 70(3):18–27 28. Globerman S, Roehl TW, Standifird S (2001) Globalization and electronic commerce: inferences from retail brokering. J Int Bus Stud 32(4):749–768 29. Stiglitz JE (2002) Globalization and its discontents. W. W. Norton and Company, New York 30. Yadav Y (2016) The failure of liability in modern markets. Virginia Law Rev 102(4):1031–1100 31. Bessi A, Quattrociocchi W (2015) Disintermediation: digital wildfires in the age of misinformation. AQ: Aust Q 86(4):34–40 32. Vicario D, Michela B, Alessandro Z, Fabiana P, Fabio S, Antonio C, Guido S, Eugene H, Quattrociocchi W (2016) The spreading of misinformation online. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 113(3):554–559 33. Graeber D (2011) Debt—updated and expanded: the first 5,000 years. Melville House, London 34. Liessman KP (2012) Lob der Grenze—Kritik der politischen Unterscheidungskraft. Paul Zsolnay Verlag, Wien 35. Hankel W (1978) Caesar—Goldne Zeiten führt ich ein. Das Wirtschaftsimperium des römischen Wektreiches. München-Berlin: F.A. Herbig Verlagsbuchhandlung 36. Toffler A (1970) Future shock. Bantam, London 37. Meadows DH, Meadows DL (1972) The limits to growth: a report for the club of Rome’s project on the predicament of mankind. Universe Books, Los Angeles 38. Morris I (2014) War—what it is good for?: conflict and the progress of civilization from primates to robots. Profile Books, London 39. Derevianko AP (2015–2018) Three global migrations in Eurasia, vol I–III. IAET SB RAS Publishing, Novosibirsk 40. Ghosh J (2012) The emerging left in the ‘Emerging’ world. Econ Pol Wkly 47(24):33–37 41. Sassin W, Donskikh O, Gnes A, Komissarov S, Depei L (2018) Evolutionary environments. Homo sapiens—an endangered species? Innsbruck: Studia Universitätsverlag 42. Stuart H (1985) Community justice, capitalist society, and human agency: the dialectics of collective law in the cooperative. Law Soc Rev 19(2):303–327

Chapter 16

Control of Globalisation, Transport Routes, Supply Chains and Migration in the Pandemic Time Wolfgang Sassin

Abstract Due to enormous level of globalisation, SARS-CoV-2 spread across the world without any borders was rapid and its effective containment at the first stages of the pandemic turned out to be impossible. The main reasons for that are the networklike nature of the global society of 2010s; the absence of mental and cultural limits and stints; uncontrolled migration routes and amounts; and the appearance of the vast number of “cosmopolitan” humans who regard themselves “world citizens,” or new nomads, “hunters” and “gatherers” without permanent ties and bonds to one country, territory or community. There is a fundamental difference between the human migration movements of the past and those of the beginning of the twenty-first century. The latter imposed the need for a cultural assimilation of the migrants which they cannot master within one generation. This cultural transformation includes the necessity to adapt to the compression of humans into a new living space, into technology-based megapolises, which altogether represent the equivalent of an artificial planet. The transformed planet Earth does not provide new resources nor additional free spaces for an overall growth of material wealth. On the contrary, it asks for a drastic reduction of individual freedoms. The stability, even the survival of these mega centres, is at stake without consistent subdivisions of an overall shrinking of spaces needed for all kinds of movements and of a consistent restriction of the exploding communicative interference within and between these mega centres. The Chapter aims at a first-hand analysis of a possible introduction of digital borders without which adequate legal spaces appear infeasible and any virus spread cannot be effectively contained.

W. Sassin (B) Former Fellow at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Lecturer at Technical University Vienna, Thiersee, Jochberg 5, 6335, Austria e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_16

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Coronavirus Pandemic: How Can We Effectively Control Social Contacts and Minimise Societal Impact? According to leading politicians, the unexpected appearance and rapid spread of the corona virus (COVID-19) poses a challenge to the affected societies that has not occurred since the end of the Second World War.1 If one considers that the measures taken in many countries to protect themselves from an exponentially growing wave of the disease date back to the time of the Second World War, then it becomes clear what long-term consequences the Black Swan Corona must have. The measures taken so far, and even those intensively discussed in the media, to contain COVID-19 concentrate on the physical and mental control of masses, because their potentially “dangerous” members cannot be identified sufficiently and quickly enough to isolate them and then give them special treatment. The social and legal regulations of entire societies are therefore gradually being suspended and transformed into a kind of martial law. The real enemy is a virus, however. But the carriers of this virus spread the disaster. Only they and not the virus can be isolated. Therefore there is hope to make these carriers immune by a vaccination which is still to be developed. The actual “defensive battle” must therefore be fought in the individual carriers, who should and must maintain an existing social order. In this respect, the corona pandemic is no more and no less than an example of the disruption of an existing balance between the overriding interests of a metaorganism and its defence strategies, be they reactive or proactive, and the interests and motives of an “enemy” acting asymmetrically “underground.” The parallels to “system disrupters” are unmistakable, be it drug cartels, be it people who hide their “profits” in tax havens, be it from the perspective of democratically constituted societies an Islamic state2 or even a caliphate. This applies horribile dictu in general to the “migration of the needy,” whether individuals or larger groups, into other living spaces where they can develop at the expense of and in competition with the communities living there rather than where they come from. The process of urbanisation, the migration into urban structures and into social systems that others have created for themselves, is in effect a pandemic. The resulting cultural conflict, which is spreading in our time in a pandemic-like way, emerged along with the development of agriculture and cattle breeding, a way of life that has largely abandoned gathering and hunting and has given rise to the concept of property. This fundamental property thus created had to be defended against those who wanted to take it, secretly or by force. The idea of a divine creation, which should be freely accessible to all, and these newly created property rights, they clashed from then on. Even the holy writings of 1

The messages of heads of government from many of the countries concerned were similar: On 18 March 2020 the German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: „It is serious. Take it seriously too. Since German unification, no, since the Second World War, there has not been a challenge to our country that depends so much on our joint solidarity.“ 2 IS is a terrorist organisation whose activity is legally forbidden in Russia and many European countries.

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the Abrahamites still get lost morally and ethically in this dilemma between freedom and property. The attempt of the farmer Cain to defend his property against the shepherd Abel ends with Cain killing Abel, because his sacrifice was “more pleasing to God.” Barriers against the access of third parties to “one´s own” are indispensable for life in general. They do not only apply to humans, they apply to every cell and every organism. And the “army” that defends these barriers is called immune system. But in order to strengthen it, no general restrictions on social contacts will help. The immune system has to learn and it needs appropriate information about the virus, which it can also get through vaccination. The current very different curfews, travel restrictions and business closures can only delay the global spread of COVID-19, as they are incomplete by necessity due to the need of emergency supplies. Furthermore, the physical control of regional mobility and contact restrictions is a problem in itself. Police officers, doctors and medical staff also infect themselves despite some protective measures. These groups inevitably have an extremely high frequency of contact [1, 2]. All the measures recommended by governments and health organisations are therefore only suitable for delaying a global spread of a pandemic with potentially fatal consequences for parts of very differently structured populations. They can slow down the speed of the spread of the pandemic somewhat. But they cannot prevent different damage densities. This is because such measures depend on the sensitivity of complex supply structures, regardless of whether they are medical protection and treatment facilities or economically crucial production facilities. Modern societies do not simply depend on the provision of basic foodstuffs. They collapse if their complex, highly specialized exchange processes are sufficiently disrupted. To illustrate this in a picture: The individual human being does not die or a society does not collapse from a virus, be it biological or mental, both cease to exist due to a disturbance of their internal organisational system triggered by a virus. And systems with an unstable internal organisation, especially with serious informational deficits, are particularly at risk. Measures to limit social contacts to the bare necessities undoubtedly lead to a massive disruption of the world economy, which is now based on global supply chains. Their potentially much more dramatic longer-term consequences are largely ignored by efforts to give people a sense of “seriousness of the situation” at a time when only a tiny fraction of the population is infected. There is no doubt, however, that the virus has long since become much more widespread, as the infected individuals need a few days to sufficiently multiply the virus in their bodies before they becomes contagious and display noticeable symptoms. Comprehensive tests are practically impossible, not only because of the lack of testing equipment, but also because of the intensive social contacts that are involved. If one realises that in modern societies based on specialisation and a multiple division of labour, both the supply chains and the intensity of demand will probably remain disrupted for several months due to the reduction of social contacts to the bare minimum, then the upcoming second phase of the confrontation with the corona

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virus will have to deal with the economic consequences of revolutions or civil wars.3 After all, no economic or financial models are needed to ensure that the longer-term economic, psychological and then also political consequences triggered in this way cannot be contained by central banks printing empty money. The existing models are based on experience with disturbances that do not fundamentally question the structure of a highly interconnected global civilisation. The case of Corona and its political and social handling, therefore, raises the question of the reorganisation of a global society. This materially and informally networked global society is coming up against several hard limits for many other reasons, which currently are pushed aside. The problem of global poverty migration, which has manifested itself in a similarly dramatic way for the public and politicians in 2015, is only one out of many. This is true for the climate crisis, whose trigger is not only the “CO2 virus,” but also for the “viruses” of population growth and the efforts to bring the living standards of the poor into line with those of the rich through a global redistribution and development effort—the deeper moral justification for the demand for permanent exponential growth. “Contagious” in general was and is the hope for a better life, which, like viruses or bacteria, causes people to search for new “hosts” on a global scale. The current situation makes it clear that the control of pandemics of any kind cannot be achieved through isolation, but only through targeted defensive measures, i.e. by identifying parasitic behaviour as accurately as possible. Growth beyond a certain limit always turns into an uncontrolled proliferation of what is supposedly one’s own, which ultimately destroys every organism and every organisation. In view of this situation, at a time when around four billion people, i.e. half of humanity, already own a smartphone, it seems overdue to examine this information and communication tool more closely in order to better understand how it contributes to the spread of all those pandemics mentioned above—and also how it could be used to combat them. For nationwide travel restrictions, and even more so, the restriction of individual freedoms in foreseeable increasing economic and social emergencies, questions the very order without which a civilisation highly specialised and interlinked in a complex manner must collapse. Without a targeted and coordinated limitation, indeed control, of physical and digital social contacts, neither the “migration” of viruses nor the migration of neediness will be controllable in the future. Chapter 5 is written with a view to the necessary ordering and control of the digital information space in the global world, a phenomenon that is changing reality and whose significance we are only slowly becoming aware of. Perhaps the novel coronavirus and the pandemic it has triggered will draw our attention in time to the inevitable changes in our traditional views of the world and of humanity and the values associated with them. To spread fears in order to influence the behaviour of the masses is highly risky. Surgical measures are necessary which must be determined by logic, but not by emotions. And such measures must be made understandable to the 3

Black Revolutions, i.e. upheaval of primarily black population in USA and partly UK in springsummer 2020, are good examples.

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common people, not to mention specialists. Because ethical and moral discussions do not fight viruses.

Digitisation, Globalisation and Disappearance of Natural “Open Spaces” In recent years, mass migration has become a social and political challenge in the developed countries of the West, but not only there. For the First World, it can in some respects be compared to the experience of those societies which after some time found themselves partially dispossessed, some even as slaves, of a process which the West has positively stored in its collective memory as emigration and occupation of new worlds with the help of superior techniques and a missionary spirit. The only real difference between current migration and the historical process of emigration is that current immigration uses the means of need instead of superior weapons and is based on the very belief that lies at the heart of Christian convictions: What you did to the least of my brothers, you did to me. Political discussions how the West could meet this historical challenge break up existing political parties. They lead to surprising election results [3]. And they not only upset the societies of Europe, they have even reached the classic immigration country, the USA [4]. The events of 2015 have shown that the border regimes of the European Union are not simply deficient. The political conflicts triggered by irregular immigration are, if analysed more closely, causally linked to the “desired“economic globalisation [5, 6]. This makes it so difficult both to assess the future development of migratory pressures and to develop a concept that would be free of contradictions in order to manage the overflowing exchange of goods, services, rules and finally always also people—and that means always to restrict them. It must be borne in mind that this exchange changes sources and sinks alike, and both already in a fundamental way. There is no doubt, globalization has already passed the peak of its economic advantages. But this is not a widely shared consensus among economists [7, 8]. In their models they consider only those processes that are valued by markets [9]. An economy grows through a combination of different measures: through division of labour, development of easily accessible resources, spatial concentration and temporal acceleration of production and distribution processes, economies of scale, unification of standards and the deployment of increasingly complex technologies. The resulting benefits, more precisely the “profits,” are only incompletely recordable by monetary units, however. Not recorded, and not recordable in principle in economic sciences are, for example, changes in the natural environment, such as the consequences of climate change or the exhaustion of easy-to-use resources. Also not recorded is the depreciation of investments that are becoming obsolete by “progress,” be it in the capital stock or in the “stock” of knowledge of productive people. It is not

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really surprising that with such an incomplete theoretical and vague approach politicians fail because the society they are supposed to lead and control, is undergoing a profound transformation at a speed previously unimaginable [10, 11]. A short-sighted policy aimed at combating symptoms wastes enormous resources. This is particularly true in the case of political decisions that are to be democratically legitimised. The administrative expenditure involved in organising the redistribution of profits and losses from a rapidly changing production and consumption structure, i.e. the welfare state with all its intricate institutions and state jobs which are sprouting within it, generates costs which, similar to the elimination of accidents or environmental damage, are accounted as positive contributions to economic performance. In view of the problems created by the “development” of societies, whether in the first, the second or third world, where whole states, and indeed regions, stagger into chaos and violence, the rapidly advancing pace of digitisation is contributing to a further disparity between harsh reality and prevailing socio-economic theories. The catalysts for this schism between reality and theory this time is digital information processing and the digital communication coupled with it. The consequences of these digital communications, which are already visible today, seem to dwarf the consequences of the industrial revolution of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries in terms of both speed and structural change in societies that are groping in the dark. There are the first signs that a new social revolution is being sought by young “progressives,” which, similar to what once Marx, then Lenin or later Mao kicked off, may lead to a collective excursion with dramatic consequences.4 Against this background, the memorandum Securing national legal spaces outlined a project for the technical establishment of borders in the digital space as early as 2016.5 The considerations contained therein, as well as the legal considerations put forward elsewhere as to whether and how a distinction should be made between those entitled to asylum, economic refugees, the immigration of qualified specialists, or even the compensation of demographic deficits, lead to a simple fact, namely that the migration of people cannot be controlled by national laws or international conventions, because these refer to rights of the individual, but not to mass phenomena. In this respect human migration is fundamentally different from the mass exchange of goods and services, for the “migration” of the latter is restricted by tariffs, by technical standards and also by financial institutions and rating agencies. Economic globalisation does not aim at the freedom of individual people to move and settle where they like. Rather, it serves to establish an artificial technical living basis supported by different nations. In this respect, globalisation aims at the establishment of globally anchored infrastructures and processes that are typical of mass production and mass supply. In its consequence, it creates, unintentionally, a 4

In the journal IPG (Internationale Politik und Gesellschaft) of 6 October 2017, article Windrädert doch wie wollt, Jason Hickel, an anthropologist at the London School of Economics, calls for » a fundamental economic turnaround, because renewable energies will and can no longer prevent the climate catastrophe. «. 5 W. Sassin: Project proposal: Development of digital technologies for securing national legal spaces. 18 January 2016.

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situation that does not differ substantially from the necessities and methods of livestock farming. It is very difficult even to admit this.

Migration as a Symptom of Global Humanity Migration is therefore still understood as part of a more comprehensive natural right of man, as a kind of elementary freedom, which also includes the exchange of convictions, of knowledge and even the direct access to a free environment. This natural right referred to the physical and sensory reach of man, i.e. as far as the ears and eyes reach, as far as the environment can be manipulated by hands and as far as the feet carry. This elementary freedom of movement and the ability to act consciously, however, found its limits very early on as a result of the development of techniques that reached beyond the natural horizon of human perception. One does not shoot an arrow without being able to see the target. The risk of causing unwanted damage therefore limits every aspect of this natural right to freedom. But not only unknown risks, but also the necessity to form communities drastically limits the freedom of movement and action. For only together can opportunities for living be expanded and secured that far exceed the abilities and possibilities of individuals. Communities must therefore limit the freedom of the individual for both reasons, because of the risks that grow with their size and because of the complexity of their cooperative undertakings. This double restriction of what we think we understand as a fundamental natural right, as freedom par excellence, increases disproportionately with the size of societies that have to artificially build, maintain and secure their livelihoods. At this point it should be noted that for almost eight billion people there is simply no longer any possibility of a global relapse into the freedoms of nomadic or agricultural societies. Against this background, the ten points contained in the second section first list fundamental changes that characterise the gradual transition from highly diverse natural habitats with specifically adapted smaller societies to a universal, technically based basis for life. This new livelihood is no longer territorially restricted. It is provided by a global urban culture that has spread almost identically across all continents [12, 13]. This modern urban culture is, to be sure, not sustainable at all. Firstly, it must be constantly renewed through human investment and is therefore not a free, self-sustaining commons. And secondly, it depends existentially on the exploitation of “its” flat land, further on the exploitation of the biosphere, the oceans, the atmosphere, and on natural material cycles, which can only buffer and process civilisational waste and pollutants to a limited extent. A situation has arisen in which migration is a symptom but not the actual cause of the major current problems that are manifesting themselves in different forms in different societies. Every living base developed by human beings is an existential property, the property of those who create this base. Global urban culture can therefore neither be

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appropriated through immigration nor by simply “being born into it,” nor can it be adapted to traditional agricultural and nomadic cultural concepts. In contrast to today’s migration, earlier migratory movements led into free, still untouched natural areas. They forced migrating cultures to adapt to the highly diverse natural conditions. Migration today cannot be compared with the historical migrations of mankind, which can be traced back some 300,000 to 400,000 years. In any case, the original colonisation of the planet has led to very specific characteristics of the individual and also to clearly distinguishable different cultures. De facto, at least half of homo sapiens has arrived on “another planet” in the course of the last century on which they cannot survive with their natural abilities. The fate of a species whose traditional values and sacred books do not guarantee a future is an obvious taboo of thought, especially for its fellow shamans and priests, including its lawyers and philosophers. The current migratory flows, primarily from the countryside into highly dense urban areas and only in a second step from there across borders into “rich” urban societies, do not open up new horizons of civilisation and also no new resources, as was still the case for the settlement of the New World up to the nineteenth and early twentieth century [14]. For today’s post-natural livelihoods, which have been lost through economic, but not through state or cultural expansion, migration is therefore always an act of partial expropriation, and above a certain density of presence of migrants it is even an unintentional, but unavoidable attack on the stability, indeed the existence of this modern urban culture. The urban agglomerations with many millions of inhabitants that emerged in the second half of the twentieth century, in which about half of the world’s population now lives, differ only marginally from continent to continent. Their situation is similar to arks that are desperately searching for land that is not yet flooded or exploited because it is overcrowded. The foreseeable worsening of the migration problem is therefore only a symptom of a much more general existential challenge that man as a multi-billion phenomenon is now facing. This challenge can be described best as the Spaceship Earth problem. Only in such a picture does it become clear that “the crew,” i.e. the globalised society, must adapt to the limits caused by its growth, not the other way round. For these limits are by no means drawn by a changing climate or by depleted natural resources, but above all by the “neighbours” who are too close together, competing for space and resources, with their growing demands and their belief in supposed (natural) rights [15, 16]. The implicit assumption that the existing, highly diverse cultures, their specific values and, viewed objectively, their archaic legal systems, could and must become part of a globally uniform legal space, not only questions all previous legal concepts. Above all, it unmasks the principles of interpersonal behaviour underlying these legal conceptions. It is important to remember that the “Western values” were born out of the revolt of the weak, who not only tried to disempower their high performers, but also to enslave them. The renewed striving for freedom that began after the experiences of the French Revolution and the attempted subjugation of an entire continent

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under Napoleon presupposes free spaces. It includes the claim for independence, for a break of the chains of inadequacy and the carrying along of social chains, whether they served to feed a self-appointed elite or the bottom of a society. The separation of the New England States from Britain (1776) and the creation of the American Constitution (1788) cannot be understood otherwise. The fact that America was a model for the problems of the nineteenth century, but is not suitable as a blueprint for the twenty-first century, simply follows from the fact that today we do not have a second New World at our disposal. The tradition enshrined in this constitution from two irreconcilable aspirations, namely the independence of self-defining communities and the simultaneous inner commitment of their individuals, is symbolically but but incompletely summarised in the United Nations catalogue of human rights.6 This catalogue, therefore, does not form a basis for a sustainable order in the Spaceship Earth. Its implicit values suppress and even deny, contrary to a better knowledge that rights can only result from the fulfilment of duties. The predominant and largely unconscious, but in any case naive idea of a further “moving together” for humanitarian reasons cannot compensate for any of the dramatic side effects of the global explosion of human needs and the economic growth driven by it, on the contrary. The globalisation of mankind is nothing less than the pursuit of a utopia for which—at least so far—no inherently consistent organisational model exists.

Introducing of Possible Digital Borders to Control Migration and Epidemiological Situation The Earth is finite and after all that science has investigated so far, it is already too small for the demands of mankind. That means no less than: Man does not have to fundamentally change one technology or another but himself. And above all: the real challenge is not the absolute number of people who are connected or brought together, but their density in space and time, i.e. the density of communicative exchange processes that not only connect individuals but also constantly pressurise them and demand for control. If humanity as a whole would be organised as a global union, this would inevitably lead to a closed social system. In such a system, however, no different speeds in the adaption to performance standards can be tolerated. Nor could there be markets which balance supply and demand by price mechanisms and which, horribile dictu, accomplish a tacit distribution of scarcity. Moreover, such a closed social system could not allow for any significant tolerance for very different habits, i.e. what is 6

The group around George Washington did not have to resort to the guillotine simply because the nobles and successful entrepreneurs were sitting in England and not in their colonies in New England. Therefore, in order to achieve independence, firearms were sufficient to fight successfully against the colonial army of the British Crown. But they also killed there, but under martial law. A real revolution of the social order did not take place, unlike in France after the forcing of the Bastille.

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taken for granted today in terms of personal freedom, including cultural and religious freedoms.7 The Spaceship Earth can best be compared to the conditions in a besieged fortress. Without the possibility of external expansion, of shifting any kind of problem to the outside, a free exchange of goods, of services and also the free movement of people inside this fortress would have to be drastically restricted and ultimately lead to a comprehensive planned economy. Such a system would dissolve all the requested basic freedoms of the individual, with the reasoning of a universal social justice. Meanwhile, a transformation is progressing rapidly towards a global planned economy, which has been taking place beneath the surface of public consciousness and for 70 years now propagated as developing countries. Digitisation and with it the open information space that has only just come into being are accelerating this transformation in a so far unfathomable way. Like every newly discovered space, this additional “leeway” has so far known virtually no limits and certainly no internal structures. Against the background of the evolving spaceship situation, or what amounts to the same, the increasing idea of the One Humanity, the establishment of effectively controllable boundaries in information space is one of the most urgent tasks. If this does not happen, mutiny and chaos will continue to spread throughout the spaceship.8 Digital borders not only represent an urgently needed means of limiting an expropriating migration, but they are also indispensable in the long run for the preservation of the technical and scientific basis of existence, especially from the perspective of the 7

To understand the problems that the “humane idea” of integration and tolerance brings with it, it is enough to describe a real situation with unusual terms or as a seemingly bizarre process: Traffic reports often warn of ghost drivers. These are drivers who are driving on motorways against the prescribed direction of travel. In countries like Germany with right-hand traffic, these are people who drive “left.” If an Englishman, a Japanese or an Indian, i.e. people from countries with left-hand traffic, insisted that they must not only maintain their habits but also their now unconscious reactions in traffic in order to be really safe on the road, the consequence would be that ghost drivers in traffic would be the rule. In pedestrian traffic this is accepted, one could argue, i.e. in the dominant and still existing pre-technical form of movement. The integration of such an idea of natural freedom into a meticulously regulated high-tech society would then amount to the inevitable discrimination, indeed criminalisation, of such “ghost drivers.” Not much different is the idea of introducing different holidays, with the help of which religions have so far distinguished themselves from each other with reference to different salvation histories, in order to facilitate “integration” for cultural migrants. A modern economy in which there would be for example three kinds of “Sundays,” namely the blessed Friday of the Mohammedans, the Sabbath of the Jews and the Sunday of the Christians would be just as efficient as a motorway with the individual freedom to drive left or right. Such examples can be continued at will. They show that the complexity of a system enforces a standardisation of its constituent elements, and the more comprehensive the larger and more complex a system is. The humanities and social sciences, and even more so the political sciences, have yet to acquire this knowledge of the natural sciences. 8 Not only states in former colonial areas are disintegrating. Disintegration phenomena also occur in Europe. Scottish, Irish, Basque and Catalan attempts at autonomy, eastern Ukraine, Crimea, as well as the Brexit or the position of the Visegrad states in terms of immigration, are evidence of the instability and the inevitable disintegration of the EU. It is important to realise that the Soviet Union has also only recently disintegrated. In functional terms, this example is more interesting than the fall of the Roman Empire and is a warning sign for all the current major efforts to achieve union.

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“weaker ones.“How digital borders can be introduced in an information society without great effort to secure and stabilise legal spaces is outlined in Chap. 5 below. It refers to the fact that communication is always both the basis and the limitation of community. Without borders in the physical space and, in parallel, in the information space, markets as a means of improving economic efficiency would lose their function, because any progress of the economically successful would have to be redistributed by subsidising the less successful. The supposed necessity for redistribution, which is enshrined in ideologically founded constitutions, even in the capitalist West, already destroys in reality the function of money as the central means of political control of larger societies. The growing indebtedness of states, companies and private citizens, which has been triggered by the global financial crisis after the beginning of this century, is one of the problems resulting from the process of “growing together” of differently developed economies. Single currencies such as the Euro force the need for financing, i.e. nothing more than compensation for the performance deficits of individual members and groups. This is done either through taxes, which can only be increased to a limited extent, or through debts, which can be increased seemingly without limit and which can be extended almost indefinitely, especially over time. The ongoing process of globalisation and digitalisation is leading to ever new monetary aid programs. These are, however, ultimately just another term for “procurement rights,” a means that every planned economy still had to introduce—and by which it necessarily must fail, sooner or later.

Fundamental Tasks of Reorganising Legal Spaces of the Global World to Contain SARS-CoV-2 and Other Pandemics Effectively 1.

Law and justice always lag behind a new reality that has emerged before, and which thea laboriously seek to put in order. Legal spaces presuppose states which autonomously establish law for their citizens and which make binding agreements for “their own” legal subjects. International law, therefore, refers either to territories for which states claim sovereign rights or to territories not under such sovereign rights, such as the oceans, Antarctica or near-Earth space including the Moon. The geological volumes below a very thin layer of the continents are so far free of rights, as is outer space. The same applies to the newly created digital information space. To extend the right of a state to a foreign territory necessarily amounts to conquest or subjugation by military, economic and/or media means. The process of subjugation of other legal systems took on unprecedented levels in the twentieth century with the emergence of the duopoly US - Soviet Union and the subsequent establishment of global spheres of influence.

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The United Nations and the human rights catalogues initiated thereby are the result of the attempt of two great powers to establish a coexistence between their fundamentally incompatible legal systems and the different concepts of humanity and the values they are based on after the end of the second, practically the first war waged worldwide. Despite the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the hegemony of the USA, which arose for some time as a result, the United Nations has since then unilaterally pursued the goal of establishing a global legal regime, without really being able because of its existing structure to take proper account of the multipolarity that has developed in the meantime. The electromagnetic long waves spreading has first opened the possibility of a worldwide military command structure. Without the new technological achievements, there could not have been a World War II. In fact the First World War was “only” a European war. The “Ether,” i.e. environment, as a propagation medium for all kinds of electromagnetic waves is mentally not sufficiently recorded and classified regarding its military usability, legally not at all. As a medium for electromagnetic impulses it even opens up highly effective possibilities for the destruction of vital communication systems, for example by nuclear warheads that are detonated in near-Earth space and which can trigger a magnetic pulse. National standards exist in civilian areas, e.g. with regard to the intensity of certain high-energy radiation (X-rays and gamma radiation). There, influence is exerted on the sources. International agreements on the use of frequency bands have long existed to avoid interference with transmitters and receivers of electromagnetic waves. However, the existing standards for limiting the field strengths of electromagnetic waves only refer to their biological effects (similar problems as in point 2). The information imprinted by humans on all sorts “carriers” and its distribution is and has never been free. The ability to control the distribution of information is the central instrument of extensive governance. With the emergence of non-material carriers of information, in particular electronic communication, legal restrictions on the “freedom of information” have developed, as well as technical measures by individual states to prevent undesired information transmission. As long as the transmission of information was carried out by public agencies and there were only few such service providers, they were in practice monopolies which the State could actually control, both in terms of the content of the information and the technical means of transmission. (Censorship of the press, postal monopoly, state broadcasting, including state-operated jamming transmitters, and radio and telecommunications licences) With the advent of mobile telephony, states on a large scale have privatised the technical transmission possibilities in return for massive taxation, arguing it would be a common resource comparable to mineral and other material public resources (auction of mobile radio frequency licenses). Almost all countries

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have thus lost their sovereignty over mobile radio. The same applies to the digitally functioning Internet, which is a global network with distributed nodes. The transition from analogue to digital representation of information, in conjunction with the ARPA network developed for military purposes and the resulting commercial Internet, has created a situation in which de facto all states have lost control and protection of information transmission. In fact, a largely ununderstood, fundamentally new global information space has developed in this way, which extends supranationally and to which almost everyone who wants to has anonymous access. The parallels between graffiti sprayers and digital nerds are obvious. The former are extremely spatially limited in their activities, the latter almost not at all. The deeper reason for the loss of control of the state over the information infrastructure is the yet non-existing concept of a digital person in analogy to a natural and a legal person. This failure creates existential problems for entire civilisations, not only for states, because of the development and the use of autonomously acting information processing programs. For the latter, too, there is no appropriate term. Because in the view in which mathematical-logical algorithms and their underlying models of the real world influence material or mental processes, a kind of independently acting intelligence is created. This intelligence, erroneously called “artificial,” operates and communicates just like any natural person or legal entity in the information space. The technical reproduction of neuronal networks and their connection with data volumes can no longer be handled by humans and the so-called deep learning shows that artificial intelligence can also develop on other than biological substrates. However, these non-biological information and decision makers are not yet legal entities. With algorithms and the technical devices on which they are based, a new kind of “acting individuals” has emerged. But as long as these new digital individuals cannot be identified, similar to previous persons, whether natural or legal, they fundamentally evade any kind of law. Here examples are: the existence of bots on the internet, which spread opinions or so-called fake news, as well as the influence of “foreign actors” on democratic election processes, but also the unsolved problem of legal responsibility for damages that autonomously driving vehicles will undoubtedly cause. These new “digital individuals” ultimately need to be registered as “active citizens” if they are not to question every kind of legal system. They could be called a special kind of “aliens.” In disregard of their potential to make decisions independently of humans, we multiply them as if they were useful slaves who, like former slaves supposedly chained up, cannot cause harm. In fact, their owners let them act freely, at least in the information space, which can neither be mapped nor monitored and controlled by territorially bound legal systems. Our existential foundations depend more and more on the activity of these aliens. The security problem that has already arisen and is getting worse and worse goes far beyond the known military threats.

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This is especially true with regard to nuclear weapons. A possible failure of larger parts of the electronic communication infrastructure caused by algorithms would lead to an unpredictable disintegration of modern, technically globalized civilization without even a single rocket being fired or a bomb being detonated [17]. The obvious way to identify these new “intelligent citizens” is through their communication with their human owners and clients, i.e. natural and legal persons. Human access to the information space always requires a physical instrument, a mediating something between our neural networks, which produce our consciousness, and the environment, which cannot be physically captured, processed and stored, but only in the form of information. In archaic cultures, these were the voice and gestures, including facial expressions, which were used to exchange information. Not the content of the communication, but the voice and face of an acting individual was always a public identification feature. They are unchanged. Later, writing was added. Handwriting, in conjunction with names and registers of persons, serves to identify citizens. Since the advent of electric/electronic means of communication, starting with the telephone, telefax, radio, television, computers and smartphones, the possibilities of direct individual recognition of the communicating human actors have been lost. The phenomenon of anonymisation of information sources is widespread instead. It ranges from press officers and newsreaders to the “design” of journalistic reports and the alleged recording of reality by institutions that make use of statistics. This also applies to the recording of information recipients, with the help of “audience rating,” or for effectiveness analyses of advertising and election campaigns. After all, a growing number of state security agencies are busy identifying unknown listeners and readers of communication processes and content, such as those who hack IT devices, install Trojans and attempt to obtain classified information. All communication beyond the natural range of the human sensory organs necessarily makes use of technical aids. The use of corresponding infrastructures is an economic process. For the purpose of settling claims arising from this, the telecommunication companies have customer directories. If these are linked to existing registers of residents, practically all actions that are triggered via the information space can be identified with the territorial position of the digital agents, both the sender and the receiver, and thus the client and the contractor of an action.

If this linkage is carried out by the state and not solely by private companies as has been the case to date, it would be possible to assign a legally binding identity to digital agents acting completely or partially autonomously. This would be similar to the allocation of a license plate for a motor vehicle, which does allow to identify

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the owner by the authorities. Even if a technical communications agent is located in a different legal area, a “holder” of a smartphone, for example, who is known to the state, it, or rather he could be held liable for the consequences of infringements of rights which are brought about with its help, even if the actual user cannot be identified directly. What is decisive is that such a relatively simple administrative act can effectively protect the physical borders of a state. Of course, the free movement of such communication agents linked to the holder can be restricted just as easily as can the use of a vehicle registered in country A operating in in country B if the driver does not have a residence permit there.

Conclusions To contain and control any global pandemics, any equipment applicable for electronic communication must be linked to the administrative and biometric data of its owner as a prerequisite for the use of public infrastructures. Only in this way can it be given an identity which, together with its owner, makes it a legally tangible subject. People’s Republic of China has recently showed a positive example of it, introducing different “zones” in different provinces depending on the number of the SARS-CoV-2 infected persons in these provinces. Consistently implemented, this step would provide, among other things, an effective means of limiting cross-border migration and the associated violations of rights. In an electronically networked world, securing the rule of law is no longer conceivable in any other way. The advantage of such a measure would be to make physical border reinforcements and their physical monitoring and defence largely superfluous and to be able to transfer their task to electronic “guards.” This requires smartphones and similar intelligent devices to be personalised and sooner or later take on the function of a passport or identity card. Technologies for many authentication processes have long been available on the market. So far, however, these only correspond to the issuing of private “passports” or commercial access rights, i.e. a kind of visa. If the state were to provide smartphones and similar devices with sovereign “markings” and thus personalise them, then such intelligent communication devices that can be assigned to a foreign nationality could be excluded from the use of national communication infrastructures if their respective owners do not have legal residence status. This would not restrict any fundamental rights of the owner or holder of such an electronic communication device. Such personalisation of electronic communications should be clearly distinguished from monitoring or control of the content of communications. Rather, it is about the movement of a person in a territory for which that person does not have a visa or other legal residence permit, a fortiori to prevent the business of such persons in a particular territory. Actions of any kind using an electronic device, which is increasingly being used to remotely control installations and carry out transactions,

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in other words not just to phone, ultimately corresponds to the establishment of a company, which must of course be entered in public registers and approved. The public connection data of identifiable electronic communication devices make it very easy to determine the origin of their owners and also the places where territorial and legal borders were crossed. It is precisely this information that was never considered to be private information when physical borders were crossed. Here, the same applies to electronic communication as to previous analogue communication: the addressee on a simple letter and the indication of the sender cannot logically be covered by the confidentially of correspondence. Without them, a letter could neither be transported nor delivered. The elementary civilisational experiences of thousands of years must urgently be projected onto the electronic age and strictly applied to tame globalisation and virus spread in our society. Without smart measures, the concepts of state order and security to be guaranteed by the state following the privatisation of almost all communication infrastructures in recent decades, will otherwise remain empty phrases.

An Unbiased Look Ahead Quite a number of “pandemics,” some of them addressed above, accompanying “human progress” have turned our world in disarray. In order to secure a robust future for man instead of trying to sustain a permanent “warre,” as Thomas Hobbes has described the dilemma between existentially competing individuals or an authoritarian government in his Leviathan already in 1651, we need to strive for a resilient and robust organisation of a global civilisation. This implies not only to tolerate “losses at the fringes” in order to allow “herds” to react flexible once unexpected challenges crop up. More important is to “invest” in the building up of reserves and alternatives, in self-sufficient subsystems and, last but not least, into efficient security forces and security structures; all measures that appear unproductive because they restrict blind economic growth and consumption. It is not a question of “saving” a civilisation that is now in intensive care, being ventilated with fiat money, hoping it might recover someday. Instead, there is an urgent need for fundamentally different political and ethical concepts in a world that has proliferated and needs an appropriate and painful therapy. Palliative measures focus on emotions, but they do not secure a future worth living.

References 1. Ong SWX, Tan YK, Chia PY et al (2020) Air, surface environmental, and personal protective equipment contamination by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from a symptomatic patient. J Am Med Assoc. http://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.3227

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2. Pung R, Chiew CJ, Young BE et al (2020) Investigation of three clusters of COVID-19 in Singapore: Implications for surveillance and response measures. The Lancet 395:1039–1046. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30528-6 3. Genç D (2010) A paradox in EU migration management. SEER J Labour Soc Aff Eastern Eur 13(2):181–192 4. Goodman SW; Schimmelfennig F (2019) Migration: a step too far for the contemporary global order? J Eur Public Policy:1678664. http://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2019.1678664 5. Straubhaar T, Zimmermann KF (1993) Towards a European migration policy. Popul Res Policy Rev 12(3):225–241 6. Zorko M (2018) Hardening regional borders: changes in mobility from South Asia to the European Union. In: Reece Jones M, Ferdoush A, Harris T, van Schendel W (eds) Borders and mobility in South Asia and beyond. Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, pp 187–204 7. Colantone I, Stanig P (2019) The surge of economic nationalism in Western Europe. J Econ Perspect 33(4):128–151. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.128 8. Tagliapietra A (2019) The European migration crisis: a pendulum between the internal and external dimensions. A research report of Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). http://doi.org/10. 2307/resrep19673 9. Hix S, Noury A (2007) Politics, not economic interests: determinants of migration policies in the European Union. Int Migr Rev 41(1):182–205 10. Küçüksu A (2019) The budgetary future of migration and development policy in the European Union. A research report of Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). http://doi.org/10.2307/resrep 19663 11. McMillan S (2003) Enlarging the European Union. NZ Int Rev 28(3):7–11 12. Abel GJ (2018) Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models. Demogr Res 38:1635–1662 13. Martin SF (2016) The global refugee crisis. Georgetown J Int Aff 17(1):5–11 14. Sassin W, Donskikh OA, Gnes A, Komissarov SA, Liu D (2018) Evolutionary environments. Homo Sapiens-an Endangered Species?. Studia Universitätsverlag, Innsbruck 15. Bonini BS (2019) Narrative capability: self-recognition and mutual recognition in refugees’ storytelling. J Inform Policy 9:132–147. https://doi.org/10.5325/jinfopoli.9.2019.0132 16. Mazzucelli CG, Visvizi A, Bee R (2016) “Secular states in a “security community”: The migration-terrorism nexus? J Strateg Secur 9(3):16–27 17. Sieferle RP (2016) Krieg und Zivilisation: Eine europäische Geschichte. Heidelberg, St Gallen: Research Platform Alexandria. https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/249208

Chapter 17

Strategies of Consistent Planning Healthcare Management During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Russian and European Experience Konstantin S. Sharov Abstract Almost since the very emergence of the novel coronaviral pathogen SARS-CoV-2, the struggle with it became highly ideologised in the West and Russia. Both Western countries and Russia faced the problem of massive stress of their healthcare systems. In many cases, the structural stress was a result of incorrect allocation of medical care resources, but public policy measures were initially targeted more at frightening and controlling population than at rational managerial steps of containing the virus. Medical care workers’ behaviour was seriously impacted by such measures. A key role in exacerbating the healthcare sector overburdening, was played by misleading information on the virus and disease caused by it. Due to constant fear, stress and even panic caused by the media propaganda, workability and operational integrity of clinicians and medical personnel decreased. With the use of the example of Russia and comparison with several European countries, in this Chapter we elaborate steps to avoid managerial collapse in healthcare system brought about by informational uncertainty, ideological influence of media and remiss reaction of governmental structures, in the future.

Introduction Professor John Ioannidis clearly demonstrated that a threat of false or unconfirmed information on COVID-19 might endanger almost all scopes of life [1]. In Chaps. 6 and 7 of his communication, he drew our attention to a hazard of wrong, highly biased allocation of resources. In Russia, with considerable amount of persons tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (1.7 million as official Russian governmental data as of 1 November 2020) [2], such a situation in healthcare sector was currently faced during the first and second “waves” of the pandemic. In this Chapter, we study negative social impact of exaggerated information about COVID-19 on the Russian society and healthcare system and compare the Russian situation with European countries. K. S. Sharov (B) 26 Vavilov st, Moscow 119334, Russia e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_17

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Since the beginning of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, many states, including a number of European countries, faced massive stress for their healthcare systems. Such situation has been reported for Italy [3], Austria, Germany, Switzerland [4], the Netherlands [5], Spain [6], France [7], USA [8, 9], India [10], China [11], Turkey [12]. A thorough analysis of informational coverage of the virus spread shows that distorted information was one of the major causes of excessive, inappropriate and often inconsistent actions in public and healthcare policy. A few examples may be instructive. In UK, the population stress related to exaggerated news on COVID-19, resulted in the increased number of heart attacks through elderly people [13]. In Germany, Robert Koch Institute continues to issue its daily reports with a warning assessment message “The RKI currently assesses the risk to the health of the German population overall as high and as very high for risk groups” [14]. Such evaluations were revealed to cause large anxiety and mental stress among nursing staff in Germany, particularly in Berlin [15]. In Italy, especially in Lombardy, many people got scared to call the emergency and potentially be hospitalised due to the risk of COVID-19 contraction in a hospital [16]. Consequently, many COVIDunrelated cases that had required immediate interference, remained unobserved by medical personnel. Sucharit Bhakdi [17] and Daniel von Wachter [18] drew our attention to obvious harms of uncritical treating the information about COVID-19 by politicians, administration and society in Germany as well as disproportional public and healthcare policy measures. Wolfgang Sassin emphasised the inappropriateness of German administrative steps aimed at mitigating epidemiological and demographical hazards, in regard to both COVID-19 and other threats [19–24]. Therefore, the lessons learned from the Russian negative and positive experience with COVID-19 containment may have heuristic value for healthcare sectors of other European countries, since similar challenges are now faced in almost every country. They may also be useful for China and India as well as Southeast Asia.

Materials and Methods Survey We surveyed medical care personnel of different levels by obtaining written responses to our questionnaire. The medical staff in question works in five Moscow hospitals transformed to infectious disease infirmaries for treating only COVID-19 patients, and six ambulance centres. The data obtained were treated semantically and afterwards statistically. 231 doctors, 317 nurses and 355 ambulance medical workers of lower levels (medical assistants) have been surveyed in total.

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Content Analysis Content analysis was used as a technique of studying social reaction to COVID-19 exaggerated information in Russian segment of social networks VKontakte, Facebook, Instagram, Odnoklassniki, Twitter. 3,164 accounts have been analysed. Content analysis of Russian media (seven TV news broadcasts and eight talk shows on primary and secondary TV channels, official governmental websites on counteracting COVID-19) was also performed.

Time Range Collecting the primary data was carried out since 2 March to 10 May 2020.

Software MS Visual Studio 2010 (C#) was used for analysing the data obtained in the survey. .NET Framework 4.5 tools were used to write a proprietary C#-coded module for social networks content analysis. MS PowerPoint 2013 was used for creating the Figure.

Ethical Guidelines Reporting of the study conforms to broad EQUATOR guidelines [25].

Results and Discussion Results of Surveying Medical Workers In the survey, it became clear that 64.2% of polled doctors and 82.2% of polled medical personnel of lower levels (medical assistants and nurses) (hereinafter the percentage values are produced from the total number of the surveyed, and confidence interval is 95%) were experiencing stress and constant fear to become infected. 47.1% of clinicians with at least MD degree and 70.6% of medical personnel of lower educational levels responded in the poll questionnaire that this fear mainly proceeded from media sources, including TV news and social networks, not from their daily hospital experience. Many of respondents (36.5 and 30.1%) confessed

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that they probably would have performed their professional duties better, had it not been for their stress and fatigue.

Results of Content Analysis of Personal Posts on COVID-19 in Social Networks Our research demonstrated that the role of using social networks and electronic gadgets in spreading panic throughout Russian hospital clinicians, was enormous. Moreover, we concluded that stress and anxiety within medical care were mainly caused by the overall highly nervous social background. This background, in turn, was instigated by false or unproven information on the epidemic. The content analysis of social network personal accounts of Russian-speaking audience with at least one network post concerned with the current epidemic or related matters and written in time interval 25 February–10 May 2020, showed that 81.4% of the authors or disseminators of the posts in question exhibited high degree of anxiety and even panic brought about by distorted, exaggerated or false information on COVID-19 disease and its causative agent.

Major Venues of Producing Misinformation or Distorted Information About COVID-19 in Russia In our analysis, we detected seven major venues of producing such information. 1.

2.

Social networks (Russian sectors of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, as well as Russian networks VKontakte and Odnoklassniki) are the primary places of creating, replicating and transmitting dubious, false and unconfirmed information on the epidemic. Shocking “news” on COVID-19 are appearing and being forgotten almost every day, but sometimes they cause dramatic effects on general public. We observed that in the atmosphere of permanent stress and fear, an essential part of Russian social network users (41.9%) tended to believe uncritically in any unconfirmed “facts” about the disease and SARS-CoV-2, whichever fantastic they might seem. The World Health Organisation (WHO) official websites with their real-time statistics [26], caused considerable negative impact on Russian social network users. The current epidemic is regarded by many as an online real-time show anyone can observe in a 24 × 7 mode. SARS 2002–2004 and H5N1 avian flu 2004–2008 outbreaks passed almost unnoticed by the Russian society, whereas SARS-CoV had at least twofold fatality rate in comparison with SARS-CoV2 [27] and H5N1 flu at least ten-fold [28]. We see the main reason of it in a much lesser presence of Internet and electronic gadgets in Russia in 2003– 2004 in comparison with 2020 (for general public as well as medical workers).

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4.

5.

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The WHO’s “Confirmed deaths” counter’s continuous ticking negatively influences audience. Multiple comments in Russian social networks show that almost nobody pays heed to the fact that, on average, a seasonal flu causes greater net fatality every year than COVID-19 caused thus far. We revealed that the WHO’s “Confirmed deaths” counter was interpreted by Russian public unambiguously as an evidence of the virus’s utmost danger to the population. Daily news on major Russian TV channels were constructed in such a way that they demonstrated the rate of “those who got ill (infected, contaminated, stricken) today from COVID-19” and “perished today form COVID-19.” Even disregarding the dubious nature of the numbers “Confirmed cases” and “Confirmed deaths” introduced by the WHO [18], we observed that using such slang created an alarming feeling of war communiqués. To perish is to be killed in action. Therefore, the audience watching TV news, starts to panic as it were a war time (57.3% of analysed social network accounts contained various ideas about parallels between COVID-19 epidemic and alleged World War III). Additionally, the collocation “stricken with COVID” was identified by 62.3% of social network users as an indicator of very high SARS-CoV-2 contagiousness. Most of Russian TV talk shows were staged in a similar way. A persistent narrative about “how many people were killed by the virus heretofore” remained their main topic almost till spring 2021. The only commendable example of a contrary approach was Alexander Gordon’s TV show “Doc Talk” where the host and his guests had been trying to find real answers and soothe media psychosis common for that period of Russian TV’s everyday experience. The official website of the Russian Official Headquarters on Control and Monitoring of Coronavirus Situation [2] is little informative. A novel and uncommon word “coronavirus” whose meaning was not duly explained by officials of Ministry of Health of Russian Federation, impacted on both Russian society and medical workers negatively. If there had been a clear and timely explanation of the fact that there are four coronaviruses that caused dramatic outbreaks in the very recent past but now transformed to aetiological agents of seasonal acute respiratory infections (human coronaviruses HKU1, OC43, 229E and NL63) [29–31], a large part of anxiety, stress and fear would have been probably avoided. In addition, common naming SARS-CoV-2 “an unprecedented survival challenge” by Russian media did not mollify the general fears. No mass media notified broad society and medical care workers that the “oncein-a-century virus,” the “virus unmet thus far” in reality shares around 80% of genetic sequence with SARS-CoV that caused pandemics of 2002–2004 [32–35]. The results of our survey showed that 48.2% of doctors and 93.3% of medical workers of lower levels (not virologists) had no idea about SARSCoV-2 being just another representative of human coronaviruses subfamily till the end of the main survey, 26 April 2020. Of 3,164 inspected social network accounts, no user exhibited signs of such knowledge. The majority of people use mass media rather than scientific papers, as informational resources. And

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mass media provide mainly distorted and biased coverage, pouring additional oil on the flames. Social advertisement on TV channels exploiting the children’s services, was insistent on the major Russian TV channels (1TV, Russia TV, TVC and NTV) in time range 22 March–20 April 2020. Clips with children of four to eight years appeared constantly with messages to imagined grandmothers and grandfathers. This caused anxiety in 17.4% of doctors and 24.2% of medical personnel of lower levels. 18.2% of social network users also demonstrated signs of nervousness related to these clips. Internet search engines most commonly used in Russia, Yandex and Google, paint a web browser page in alarming reddish colours, provide unnecessary disquieting recommendations to a person what he/she should do, and show WHO misleading indicators, on every mentioning “NCoV,” "SARS," "corona," their synonyms or any related matters in a search line. According to our estimations, this is a cause of raising discomposure of 12.8% of social account users.

Persistent Media Symbols Related to COVID-19 with Misinformation Messages In our research, a few persistent media myths created with the help of wellrecognisable symbols (several of them were obviously staged-produced), have been demonstrated to lead to the highest level of alarming the Russian network society, including medical workers. These symbols are the following: a. b. c.

d. e. f.

heaps of coffins; mass burials and overloaded crematoriums; medical personnel in Kommunarka hospital (the first hospital that was lately built near Moscow exclusively for treating COVID-19 patients) wearing spacemen-like anti-plague medical protective costumes with gas masks; tears of the infected, deemed to reflect severe physical sufferings; empty streets demonstrated from distant perspectives; closed or empty Christian temples.

These symbols had little to do with the containment of the disease, but, as we found, they cause large negative impact on social network users in Russia.

Positive-Feedback Loop of Russian Healthcare Sector Overheating We revealed the following positive-feedback loop (Fig. 17.1). This loop may be regarded as the main reason of Russian healthcare system overheating.

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Fig. 17.1 Positive-feedback loop that causes current overheating of Russian healthcare system. Acronyms used: PCR—Polymerase chain reaction (a most common technique for the virus detection); CT—Computer tomography (the lungs state analysis); HR—Human resources

In Russia, we currently observe two very dangerous places in this loop. First, there was no initial calculation of need in ventilator intensive care units (ICUs) and general wards for COVID-19 patients by authorities. Fear and distorted information influenced Russian healthcare bureaucrats and a number of other governmental officials who issued the directives to transform excessive amount of hospitals to COVID-19 infirmaries. Only in Moscow, more than twenty hospitals, including highly specialised ones such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular, stopped to admit non-COVID patients in March 2020—early April 2020. Another twenty-four hospitals are being transformed now [36]. This amount may be excessive. As a result, many patients were not treated properly by required specialists, who were ordered to focus on COVID-19 patients instead. Many serious non-COVID patients were entrusted to general medical workers with specialisation in different areas of medicine. In addition, too much reliance has been initially put upon ventilator treatment, whereas only critically ill persons with acute respiratory distress syndrome and respiratory failure must be treated by mechanical ventilators lest a damage to a patient should exceed a potential good [9]. Second, constant media panic brought about an enormous level of calls of general public to ambulance and hospitals. Many people in Russia continue to require to be hospitalised with mildest symptoms of acute respiratory infection even thus far (as of 12 May 2020). Healthcare system usually satisfies such applications,

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while non-COVID persons who are critically ill may remain without an appropriate and timely medical help at all due to overburdening the care sector by large amount of people in anxiety. We suggest the following measures to reduce the current stress of medical workers and overheating of healthcare sector: a.

b.

c.

Regular demonstrating full mass-testing statistics in hospital bulletins/communiqués, media and social networks instead of simple replicating WHO metrics. It will clearly show low contagiousness and fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 (currently in Russian population, there are 3.94% infected persons, and within this cohort, there are 0.91% deceased persons: 2,116 of 232,243 people, as of 12 May 2020 [2]); Revealing deceptive nature of well-recognisable media symbols created specially to cause shock and stress (coffins, anti-plague medical costumes, mass burials, tears, etc.); Political initiatives aimed at curbing media psychosis.

Conclusions The most serious and urgent problems of Russian healthcare sector related to SARSCoV-2, are structural and informational problems. The exaggerated and distorted information on COVID-19 has big negative influence upon Russian society and healthcare system, despite SARS-CoV-2 relatively low epidemiological hazard [1, 37–40]. Theoretically, in the future we may face a much more dangerous virus that will present a real threat (e.g. a virus with fatality of Ebola and contagiousness of chicken pox). What steps should be taken to avoid similar unpreparedness of the healthcare sector in such a case? We may propose the following measures relevant for both Russia and other countries: 1.

2. 3. 4.

5.

Implementing effective ad hoc search-and-isolate techniques of virus containment aimed at immediate revealing virus carriers instead of imposing lockdown measures on the entire population that violates constitutional and democratic rights of citizens and results in economies disruption and budget overloads. Stricter and more effective epidemiological surveillance in airports, international railway stations and border control premises. Technical preparedness of infectious disease branch of medical care system. Thorough distinguishing between those patients who really need hospitalisation (seriously ill) and those who may be treated at home (asymptomatic or mild symptomatic patients). Allowance of capacities of individual protective units (IPU) for medical personnel and general public. As of late April 2020, in some Russian hospitals transformed to COVID-19 infirmaries, medical workers had to buy third parties’ IPUs at their own expense (a similar situation of shortages of IPUs was reported for Italy by Pecchia et al. [41]).

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7. 8.

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Control of informational coverage of an epidemic on at least TV media sources. Providing more comprehensive governmental reports on epidemiological situation. These reports shall be made freely available for general public and medical workers. Avoidance of making an online real-time show of an epidemic [42]. Presenting materials on an epidemic in such a way that would not boost panic in society and among clinicians. Preparing up-to-date informational press releases in hospitals, ambulance and medical testing centres with relevant information about a pathogen. Fixing persistent myths, misleading media images and video clips that are going viral in the web, with further professional analysing their mythical character by virologists and other expert researchers.

Fear, panic, disproportional public policy measures and consequent misallocation of resources in medical care system, resulting from the uncritical acceptance of exaggerated and unconfirmed information on SARS-CoV-2, should be contained even faster than the virus itself, if we would like to succeed in the struggle against the disease.

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Chapter 18

Managing Economic, Cultural and Mental Crises Caused by COVID-19 Pandemic Nataliia G. Duna

Abstract The techniques for material and, more importantly, informational exchange across virtually all borders that have emerged and spread worldwide in recent decades, have led to a phenomenon known as globalisation. Not only certain pesticides or exhaust gases such as CO2 as substances introduced by humans into the environment, are spreading globally and changing the ecology of the planet. There is a close parallel to ideas spreading globally, be they dreams of a happy and peaceful world community that begins to dissolve existing nation states and cultures or, alternatively, Malthusian nightmares as results of an anticipated climate catastrophe, or a sequence of pandemics that, like the plague or leprosy in the past, paralysed entire societies and plunged them into an existential chaos. SARS-CoV-2-related crisis, or “coronacrisis,” as we usually call it, is an excellent example. The speed with which a tiny virus, which primarily affects the respiratory tract of humans, has spread and the serious consequences for economic, social and political conditions would be inconceivable without the ever-closer interconnected world that has developed over the past two–three decades. A ruthless analysis of the positive as well as negative dreams of modernity is a prerequisite for revealing the very different economic, political and social theories of the present that are mistakenly considered and treated as independent but have obviously fallen out of time. Only then can a concept be developed for the coexistence of largely self-sufficient “fractions of humanity” that do not tear each other apart in competition for modest living conditions. A few thoughts on improving the resilience of the species running out of control round off the anamnesis of the infected human patient in this Chapter.

Introduction The current coronacrisis is the most serious global crisis for the last one hundred years. This is the first economic crisis in recent human history, whose causes are epidemiological. The global economic crisis of 2008–2009 was also paradoxical N. G. Duna (B) Department of International Economics and World Economy, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, 4 Svobody Sq, 61022 Kharkiv, Ukraine © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_18

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and controversial, as it originated in the United States, which is considered one of the world leading countries. Undoubtedly, for the first time the world scientific community has faced new facets of global problems during the coronacrisis. The analysis of their causes and consequences is possible in the context of understanding the profound changes in human consciousness, value systems and the meaning of human life. Currently mankind faces the challenges and threats, which need be assessed primarily in terms of morality. The current global coronacrisis has a whole range of reasons, which have their own scientific, technical, moral, ethical, economic aspects. The coronacrisis has caused economic turmoil. Unpredictable consequences have appeared in the global regulatory system. Even the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has lost its function in this situation. During exacerbation of the old unresolved global problems of humanity (food, environmental, energy, raw materials, etc.), mankind has faced the emergence of new problems, viz. the problem of healthcare management, the crisis of scientific knowledge, and the crisis of culture. Among the current major global challenges to humanity there are the following: – unprecedented and uncontrolled growth of global risks to human health due to mutations of viruses and other pathogens of dangerous diseases and due to host switch of virus parasites of zoonotic origin; – spread of serious, but yet unexplored psychological and mental disorders due to the impact of new information technologies on humans; – systemic crisis of science and scientific knowledge, which highlights the conflict between the achievements of scientific and technological progress and responsibility for their use, i.e. the conflict between moral norms and business interests.

Administrative Complexity of Overcoming Coronacrisis The complexity and novelty of the identified problems requires the joint efforts of scientists and administrators at national and international levels. This greatly intensifies a need for finding common answers to new global questions. Without exception, the global problems of mankind have an economic aspect. They are related to the dynamics of socio-economic processes at the level of companies, countries, regions and the world economy. Prior to the current crisis, the transnationalisation of capital and international division of labour contributed to the strengthening of interdependence and interaction of governments, NGO and large business at the global level. We face the general strengthening of interdependence and complementarity of economic potentials of countries and regions on the basis of their adaptation to the common needs of humanity around the world. Progress in the standardisation and unification of the global technological base has led to the situation that a separate product or its detail can be used in different countries [1].

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For a long time, mergers and acquisitions of transnational corporations have been enabling multinational companies to acquire strategic assets of other firms, monopolise markets, achieve synergies, increase their size and diversify their risks, and expand financial opportunities to pursue the personal interests of their senior management. The development of trade is associated with the proliferation of global supply chains mainly controlled by transnational companies. But at the same time there is a global functional inequality: the growth of profits of multinational companies widens the gap between the small number of big winners and the large number of small companies pushed out of the market [2, p. 14]. One of significant consequences of globalisation is the high and rapidly growing level of openness of national economies. It is associated with the deepening of the specialisation of each country within the international division of labour, resulting in a narrowing of the production structure to a number of the most efficient industries and products. Globalisation has significantly affected the mechanism of state macroeconomic regulation. As different states are involved in the process of globalisation and have different influence on the distribution and redistribution of world income to varying degrees, there are significant disparities, as evidenced by the amplitude of fluctuations in key microeconomic parameters. Weakening of macroeconomic regulation and reorientation of economic complexes to external globalised markets are accompanied by exacerbation of the problem of negative externalisation [3, 4]. The discrepancy between the global nature of economic processes and their regulation within national economic territories, is growing. The aggravation of the problem of planetary regulation of world economic relations, requires the formation of effective institutional support for the development of the global economy. At the same time, the globalisation of the economy is accompanied by the globalisation of formal and informal institutions with the priority of international law over national, the standardisation of many legal norms, the gradual convergence of national legal systems. The role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in which the United States occupies a leading position, has increased in the regulation of general economic processes. The current level of world market mechanisms is imperfect and unstable and it cannot play a role of a global regulator. Supranational methods of regulating financial flows are inadequate to the ability to influence them as carriers of globalisation, namely transnational corporations, international financial organisations, large individual players, whose actions can lead a country or region to financial chaos. In addition to intergovernmental organisations and integration associations, functioning the world economic system is influenced by organisations operating at the private-monopolistic level (regional and global). At the global level, such body is the Tripartite Commission, established in 1973. The phenomenal nature of the global economy is revealed in the functional and institutional structuring, whose integrating element is the global market, in which global demand and global supply are formed (Table 18.1). The current stage of development of the global economy is characterised by:

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Table 18.1 Recent contradictions and asymmetries of the global economy Current trends in the global economy

Global and national manifestations of the consequences of the coronary crisis

Hyperglobalisation, strengthening the interdependence of national economies and businesses. Trade wars. Global functional inequality

Increasing instability, unpredictability of economic development at the national and global levels. Emergence of new interstate contradictions and global asymmetries. Isolationism. Fragmentation of world markets. Exacerbation of old global problems and the emergence of new ones

Expanding the scope and influence of international institutions and supranational bodies

Loss of basic functions and increase of systemic vulnerability of regulatory mechanisms in the conditions of economic chaos. Increasing tensions at the civilizational, cultural, psychological levels. Increasing risks to human health. The spread of unemployment and poverty. Finding ways to withstand crises

Transnationalisation. Infinity of power of corporations. Formation of global business chains

Growing uncertainty of economic activity. Changing household behaviour. Reduction of trade. Deformation of the structure of national markets

– increasing instability and unpredictability of economic development at the national and international levels; – the vulnerability of international organisations, supranational institutions and national bodies, whose activities should ensure stable and balanced economic development; – growing uncertainty in the system of functioning of transnational corporations, which actually shape international innovation, investment and trade policy. Recent decades have been marked by growing contradictions between the level of development of the global economic system and development of humanity. Revolutionary changes in the means of production were not accompanied by corresponding changes in the human evolution.

Causes of Social and Economic Aspects of Coronacrisis not Related Directly to SARS-CoV-2 In the last quarter of the twentieth century, there were significant changes in the world economy, which were associated with the results of the scientific and technological revolution. It was then that the information model of global economic development began to form. The main factor of socio-economic development of countries were innovations [5, pp. 43–47]. At the socio-cultural level, this can be observed in the emergence and consolidation of “culture of innovation.”

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The business uses technological innovations to expand its capabilities in competition, reduce costs and generate additional profits. In such conditions, there is a synergy effect that integrates the effects of product and process innovation. Previously, the development of innovations involved high risks, costs and limited implementation. Modern digital technologies allow for unlimited experiments and tests. The consumer society is always ready to take part in pilot projects, so the creation of new prototypes will cost almost nothing. Unbridled innovation produces unbridled consumption in the situation of globalisation. To date, the gap between global leaders and outsiders is only progressing. The reason for this is the presence of significant gaps in the system of generation and development of technological innovations in the information environment. All countries act not only as subjects, but also as objects of globalisation. All the achievements of the scientific and technological revolution are most successfully used by economically developed countries, new leading countries (e.g., China and India) and transnational corporations. Historically, mankind has always been placing great hopes on the development of medicine and pharmacy, which would have contributed to the development of new drugs, new methods of diagnosis, prevention and treatment of serious diseases. However, today we see a completely different picture. In the recent decades, new forms of merging the business interests of the medical sector, pharmacy, disease diagnosis centres, medical laboratories, etc. with each other have emerged at the global level. In fact, the latest healthcare business chains have been formed to produce and promote their own and corporate business interests. The problem of commercialisation of medicine gives rise to biased motivation of representatives of the healthcare systems and the pharmaceutical sector. This problem has a certain level of “taboo” in scientific literature, but it contributed greatly to the coronacrisis. In fact, the global pharmaceutical market has already emerged and continues to develop. By its very nature, the pharmaceutical industry has to have medical and social vectors. But when business interests dominate the industry, the industry becomes global business in which pharmaceutical companies make huge profits from people’s suffering. Even such great danger to humanity as SARS-CoV-2 did not make different countries and pharmacy/biotech corporations to forgo at least a part of their economic interests and profits. To date, we do not observe any mutual efforts to create anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and distribute them in the world independently of purchase power, just on the basis of medical needs. Instead, the coronacrisis is regarded by many as a possibility of making additional superprofits and expanding political influence. The leadership ambitions of global corporations, a number of international organisations and governments lead to the concentration of their economic power at the national and international levels. That is why the medical and pharmaceutical spheres produce the emergence of serious threats and risks during healthcare crises. Technology convergence requires an extensive system of analysis, control and prevention of undesirable and dangerous consequences.

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Redefining Value of Scientific Knowledge During Coronacrisis The problem of ethical behaviour of a scientist or researcher can be identified separately. The coronacrisis demonstrated that the moral responsibility of the scientist for the accuracy of the data used and the results of his/her research becomes a key issue in the world scientific community. As never before, the significant achievements of scientists in medical research are accompanied by unpredictable and dangerous consequences. A modern scientist has the opportunity to abandon risky experiments, limit the possibilities of their own scientific research voluntarily and choose those that do not contradict moral norms. Everyone is fully responsible for his/her actions. Special responsibility is imposed on scientists for the consequences of their actions and scientific achievements. During the current global coronacrisis, the use of science for the benefit of society, and not for their own benefit, is becoming increasingly important. The ethics of science requires understanding of the important role of science in society and in the preservation and development of culture. Science becomes primarily a system of moral norms and rules that govern the responsibility of scientists to society. Modern social relations are becoming transnational. Moral value barriers and filters have traditionally served limits of social information filed saturation with new pieces of information. This function is extremely important, because the mass process of identity loss leads to the extinction of values. Globalisation has a strong potential to influence the existing system of values and institutions. Basically, globalisation is aimed at the involvement of the whole humanity as a single open system of socio-cultural relations to extensive system of telecommunications and information. They become important channels for the transmission of new universal patterns of behaviour, and new ideological images of what is right and what is wrong. On the one hand, globalisation breaks down various restrictions in the dialogue of cultures and expands the boundaries of cultural space. On the other hand, it contributes to the spread of unified primitive culture. In such conditions, the problem of preserving national cultures comes to the fore. Culture has an indisputable and special significance for the socio-economic development of countries [4, p. 59]. The category “culture” can be considered in a broader and narrower sense. In a broader sense, it is a way of life of a people, and in a narrower sense, it is a set of knowledge, values and norms, stereotypes of behaviour and thinking. Culture includes customs, traditions, ceremonies, language, rituals, holidays, art, food, things, knowledge, values, spirituality, norms of behaviour, family, faith, etc. [1, pp. 256– 257].

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Cultural Dimension of Coronacrisis The tendency of reorientation of public consciousness from traditional humane values to the values of material well-being and short-term benefit in Western societies prevented many young people from steady coping with the coronacrisis. The modern Western society became the society of consumption and the global society moves to the same direction, being led by media, specialists and other “prophets.” In such a society an effectual crisis management is almost impossible. Culture was always a set of fundamental life values and behavioural stereotypes accepted in a given country and perceived by an individual. These values and stereotypes act as landmarks of human activity and perform the functions of regulators of social behaviour. The complexity and multilevel structure of culture determines the diversity of its functions in each society. Culture has adaptive, communicative, integrative and socialising functions. It is always a unique and organic unity of the spiritual and the material. From a socio-cultural point of view, globalisation wipes out cultures. It is a process of strengthening the interaction and integration of different cultures at all levels of human activity. In the situation of the current coronacrisis, globalisation does not help to contain the virus and stabilise economies. Quite the contrary, it impedes stabilising the world by uncritical copying and replicating administrative errors and delusions form the West, that is thought to be the unquestionable standard, to the rest of the world. Cultural globalisation is a new stage of integration human-related processes in the world, it covers all spheres of society, from economics to art. These processes are not homogeneous. On the one hand, they can be seen in increasing complexity and development, and on the other hand, in simplification and degradation. Cultural globalisation is a very controversial process. Under its influence, the relationship between the world global economy and nation states is being rethought. In the cultural dimension, globalisation for most countries appears as a clash of value models. In modern conditions, the socio-economic gap between global leaders and outsider countries prevents the world community to fight the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the most effective way. It is obvious that technological advantages and the resulting economic advantages of the richest countries, that are the basis of global political expansion, will not be shared with outsiders, despite all resounding political speeches [1, p. 258]. This concerns both vaccine/medications distribution and epidemiological surveillance. The experience of 2020 evidently showed that there cannot be an agreement on the basic healthcare procedures even within political blocks such as European Union or Transatlantic Union. The lack of political will that would bring all the countries to unified standards of SARS-CoV-2-related testing and treating the COVID-19 disease, only exacerbated the coronacrisis.

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Impact of Coronacrisis on Socialisation The development of information and communication technologies creates unique opportunities for the formation of new online culture. We see that today new cultural phenomena appear in the Internet, in which the absolute power of visualisation is realised. In the Internet, there is a real opportunity to communicate and join the culture of other peoples through visual perception and virtual contacts on social networks. It led to the situation of media pandemic, “infodemic,” during the coronacrisis. The new virtual culture in the Internet is based on a technocratic belief in the limitless progress of society based on information technologies. It includes the culture of virtual communities, entrepreneurial culture, etc. The illusion of the absence of traditional restrictions in the online space allegedly allows a person to realise his/her “unlimited” creative potential. This creates a certain mutation of values, when permissiveness emerges instead of freedom. We see that the unprecedented informational impact on human consciousness during the coronacrisis created the technological, economic, and cultural threats to human consciousness comparable with the threat of the virus itself. In which manner did the coronacrisis impact on social relationships? As a result of globalisation, the moral and spiritual foundations of society were significantly altered before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Globalisation became a threat to traditional ways of social identification of an individual. The crisis of identification of the younger generation was accompanied by the shift of traditional values. Kindness, love, sacrifice, respect for family, parents and elders, service to others, honouring the memory of their ancestors, peace and harmony were substituted by “global values” everyone must share to be included in the global (“progressive”) society. The loss of life landmarks drove young people crazy in the wake of the coronacrisis. Obvious administrative disability in many Western countries strengthened by prolonged lockdowns and shoving all scopes of social life, including education, in the online boundaries. The largest media corporations formed the global world media space that used the latest psychological and mental administration technologies. The development of cutting-edge media technologies along with online education potentially allows controlling all spheres of human activity. Digital educational technologies created tools of managing an individual’s behaviour and cultural preferences. Distance online education during the pandemic already showed its dangerous consequences. Artificial isolation of young people (schoolchildren and university students) significantly affected the formation of their personality and their socialisation. The social basis of personality formation has been always face-to-face communication. A human is being socialised in communicating with family, teachers and friends, not online educational programmes.

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Coronacrisis and World Economy Year 2020 is a year of substantial change in the global economy. Digitalisation hurried by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has become its main trend. The new generation of companies thriving in the digital economy operates on completely different rules and principles than yesterday’s successful corporations. Companies of this type open up new functional advantages and economic opportunities. One fundamental innovation can threaten the entire industry, changing its competitive landscape. There is more to this. Digitalisation is becoming a sign of the modern civilisation. From the business point of view, digitalisation is defined as a method of applying electronic technologies to change the existing business model in order to make a profit. It is a gradual controlled transition of a product, service, or sector of activity to an online platform. The result of this process is the emergence of the latest management and marketing technologies. The process of digitalisation is characterised by transformation of traditional production processes, from robotisation of the production of consumer goods to the creation of goods with individual characteristics for each consumer. The current coronacrisis has posed a number of questions to society and business on the scale of world economy. The pace of change in the global business environment is so high that only the most adaptable and flexible organisations can withstand and win the competition. The consequences of the coronacrisis were unprecedented organisational changes in international business. In fact, a fundamentally new system of management and marketing has been implemented. The latest information and telecommunication technologies have reduced transaction costs and strengthened the market position of companies. Modern companies have formed the chains of interaction of employees, consumers, processes, devices and data through global information networks. Online employment has significantly expanded the technical capabilities of the work, which has created organisational conditions for optimising the staff of companies. This has significantly increased social tensions and unemployment. The very change in the nature of companies management in the remote employment regime has significantly weakened the social cohesion of workers. Technical means have reduced the quality of interaction in the team. In the context of digitalisation, the speed of management decisions has provided new functional advantages, which significantly increased the competitiveness of the largest business and almost buried the small and middle business in a number of countries. Neither classical conservative nor socialistic concepts offer an answer to the crises mentioned in this chapter. An illuminating negative example is a new book just published by Noam Chomsky in German, Rebellion or Perdition: A Call for Global Disobedience to Save Our Civilisation [6]. A lot of reviews published on the webpage of Amazon give only one to three stars out of five to this book.1 An insightful review of the book goes in a good agreement with my logic expressed in this chapter. It quotes, 1

From private scientific correspondence with Dr-Ing Wolfgang Sassin.

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And in order to save this planet and humanity, he sees the need for civil disobedience as the only possibility, a revolution—his mantra has been the same again and again for about 20 years—with which the people are supposed to force the rulers to finally change course, and he puts forward the bold thesis that the necessary change is only possible through the existing institutions. With all due respect, but he is here, just as it did with his theory of language, fundamentally wrong! Because it is precisely the institutional and structural designs of our world system and the currently existing democracies that have made it possible and supported that the existential negative developments that he also denounced could take place at all and thus proceed unhindered! In this way, today’s democracies have not only revealed their systemic dysfunctionalities, but also their deficiencies in terms of communication and participation in society as a whole. Otherwise, “revolutions” wouldn’t be necessary, would they? [7]

Indeed, Chomsky’s calls for a left counter-movement along the lines of Democracy in Europe Movement 2025 to “educate” people and force governments around the world to confront the unprecedented challenges to the survival of our civilisation pave the way to nowhere at best and to tyranny of left-wing political elites that have been constantly hiding their inability to govern the states, beyond their pompous slogans on “tolerance” and “solidarity.” Cession of rights of left-wing political elites currently dominating in the European Union structures in favour of transnational corporations, financial funds and private capital in the situation of globalisation, is a true problem that impedes creating effective methods of coping with the modern administrative challenges, including the coronacrisis. Indeed, the European Union mainstream ideology requires unquestioning political and military solidarity of its members, which often is unravelled in idle media debates and creating odious ideological slogans. At the same time, within the EU there are no common, unified and standardised procedures and agreements on how to deal with the novel coronavirus. Each state is for itself!—this is the current slogan of all European healthcare programmes. It began in March 2020, when Czech Republic, literally speaking, stole medical cargoes and supplied dispatched from China to Italy. Instead of making scientific and healthcare European agreements within the EU to struggle with the coronacrisis in a most effective way (e.g. to elaborate unified common standards of identification, distinguishing symptomatic picture, distributing antiviral medications, mutual creating vaccines etc.), political debates dominate.2 This situation need be mended as soon as possible and the common European initiatives to fight the emerging epidemiological threats must be elaborated and adopted.

Conclusions Modern communication and information technologies contributed to the aggravation of the SARS-CoV-2-related coronacrisis by strengthening the cultural interaction and cultural exchange. At the same time, they significantly affected the value system. 2

From private scientific correspondence with Dr. Konstantin Sharov.

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Revolutionary changes in the means of production and technology, that are sped up by the coronacrisis, are not accompanied by corresponding changes in human consciousness and social responsibility. The media manipulation of individual and mass consciousness became evident during the coronacrisis. The main cause of the current global crisis is the disproportion between the technical capabilities of homo sapiens and the lack of its spiritual and moral fitness to the new conditions made obvious by the coronacrisis. The current crisis and any similar healthcare crises can be overcome only with recognising that mental, economic and cultural resources of different states and nations that can be used for coping with the crises, are subdued by globalisation. Switching from unconditional belief in global values to defining “sectors of influence” during global crises is the sole way that will help humanity to survive in this New Brave World.

References 1. Bakirov VS, Golikov AP, Dovgal OA et al (ed) (2020) Global issues Kharkiv: V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University 2. Trade and Development Report (2018) UNCTAD. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-doc ument/tdr2018overview_ru.pdf 3. Duna NG (2014) Spiritual and moral education of modern youth. Soc Econ 1–2:60–62 4. Duna NG, Kukhar EI (2018) The cultural basis of socio-economic development of Germany. Business Inform 5:56–60. http://www.business-inform.net/export_pdf/business-inform-20185_0-pages-56_60.pdf 5. Duna NG, Yarmak TY (2019) The factors of development of the national innovation systems of Austria and Germany. Business Inform 2:43–47. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-20192-43-47 6. Chomsky N (2021) Rebellion oder Untergang!: Ein Aufruf zu globalem Ungehorsam zur Rettung unserer Zivilisation. Westend Verlag, Frankfurt amMein 7. Reviews to Chomsky N. Rebellion oder Untergang! https://www.amazon.de/Rebellion-oderUntergang-Ungehorsam-Zivilisation/product-reviews/3864893143/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_show_ all_btm?ie=UTF8&reviewerType=all_reviews

Part VI

Informational Coverage of Pandemic

Chapter 19

Ideological Media Coverage of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Fr archpriest Evgeny I. Legach, Galyna A. Bozhok, and Konstantin S. Sharov

Abstract The current “coronacrisis” instigated by many wrong attitudes in governmental epidemiological containment of COVID-19 as well as strange media informational coverage, begot a number of social and media myths that direct human understanding to terror and fear of the virus. In its turn, this fear caused panic, civil disobedience and even violent protests, e.g. “Black Revolutions” in USA and UK in spring– summer 2020. In the Chapter, we analyse the peculiarities of mythological (ideological) media coverage of COVID-19 pandemic by world media, Russian and European governmental agencies and World Health Organisation as a news media entity. Initial awkward attitudes of many governments in containing the pandemic gave rise to a number of conspiracy theories in population that instigated non-compliance with healthcare-related and other public policy measures. However, people are mainly not to blame. Administrative efforts were mainly aimed at “controlling” humans to “protect” them, especially during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in spring 2020. In reality, this “protection” turned out to be nothing more than a “protection” of Big Brother. COVID-19 is different from any other pandemics of the past in its “comprehensive” “real-time” mass media coverage. However, this coverage appeared to be not at all comprehensive, but highly misleading. We suggest ways to overcome social fears, civil disobedience and violence to elaborate the most correct healthcare strategies for managing the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.

F. E. I. Legach Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 23 Pereyaslavskaya st., Kharkov 61016, Ukraine Dean of Temple of St Transfiguration in Kharkov, Ukrainian Orthodox Church, 16 Naboychenko st., Kharkov 61090, Ukraine G. A. Bozhok Department of Cryoendocrinology, Institute for Problems of Cryobiology and Cryomedicine of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 23 Pereyaslavskaya st., Kharkov 61016, Ukraine K. S. Sharov (B) Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 26 Vavilov st, Moscow 119334, Russia © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_19

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Introduction By the beginning of April 2020, most of the media myths related to COVID-19 disease, have already became almost truly universal. They are widely accepted and disseminated throughout the global society by global, national and regional mass media, in different regions, cultures and countries. In their totality, they form the global apocalyptic ideology transmitted via media and based on unproven assumptions and personal opinions about the virus. Performing only RT-PCR tests will not show the full picture in any state. The full population testing for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (primarily IgG) has to be done to reveal the complete picture of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. For governments, such an approach obviously seems expensive. Therefore, government authorities mainly focus on social means of combating the virus, such as “selfisolation,”1 “lockdowns,” border closings, penalties, business shutdowns, economies switching off, etc. However, still no politician recognised openly that purely social techniques would not and could not stop SARS-CoV-2. Douglas Mark Rushkoff introduced a concept of media virus in his 1994 book Media Virus: Hidden Agendas in Popular Culture [1]. “Official” news of information agencies, ideological tales, political technologies, all these can become an informational “RNA” for media viruses that penetrate our social system, multiply there and sometimes cause catastrophic results. The current situation with the SARS-CoV-2 spread across the world, is by no means different from what Rushkoff described in details at the time when globalisation was no more than a simple word whose meaning was fully grasped by only a few futurists and fiction writers. Taking this into account, we cannot be surprised by the fact that nowadays there are two levels of infection: SARS-CoV-2 itself that influences human organism and its media representation (“replicas”) affecting our social systems at national and international levels. Moreover, different myths based on wrong interpretation of current information on the virus, are strongly connected with each other. In mass media and political discourse they amplify each other. The World Health Organisation (WHO) is also partially responsible for creating a distorted picture of SARS-CoV-2 spread across the world and its epidemiological properties. In spite of the WHO has a special webpage “Mythbusters,” where myths about COVID-19 are deemed to be exposed, the organisation provides a real-time information on COVID-19 disease, reduced just to two indicators, “Confirmed cases” and “Confirmed deaths” [2–4]. The third metric “Number of countries infected” seems to have little sense at all, as a priori one can anticipate that a virus with droplet transmission that was not contained at its very source of the first outbreak, will finally be found in almost any country [5, 6]. In this Chapter, we shall demonstrate dubiousness and ambivalence of such an approach. That mode of media coverage was one of the main causes of media panic 1

That can be named everything but “self,” as it was and remains to be a compulsory requirement of government bodies to citizens.

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(“infodemic,” or a sort of media psychosis comparable with psychosis of permanentwar state [7, 8]) in journalist circles and social networks on a global scale that beguiled most of leading world politicians. Having observed the obviously wrong interpretation of the WHO online metrics data in February–March 2020 and its social consequences, the WHO representatives do not do anything to stop panic or explain to politicians, administrative officials and local healthcare organisations the real meaning of the statistics provided by the WHO. The first cause and the last effect of global myth spread are explained by the re-assessment of what we can regard as epidemiologic and medical information, including medical statistics. The quality of information on COVID-19 is almost inversely proportional to its quantity, as it is usually with media coverage of notable social issues [9], while its quantity is nearly limitless in the situation of social networks dominance and personal blogs persistence.

Analysis Radical Change of Status of Information in the Global Networked World In the past—even very recent past when the world faced the SARS pandemic in 2002–2004 with its peak in 2003—humanity tended to regard scientific research and confirmed medical statistics as the only true information sources. Now it is not the case. Personal opinions of bloggers, house wives, yesterday’s schoolchildren, immature journalists, “owners” of a great number of network “followers” and “friends” (“gravitation points” of social networks), all of them are now perceived as “expert views.” In the globally networked human society, there is approximately limitless number of information “producers” as well as information “consumers.” That blurs the information coverage of COVID-19 prodigiously. Furthermore, the “chain reaction” of media viruses spread through social networks, results in exponential growth of people contaminated with media panic. Indeed, almost all of us, representatives of the global Earth population with an access to the Internet, if we are not scientists or doctors involved in the containment or prevention procedures, deal not with SARS-CoV-2 virions, but with their media representations in the space of ideas. The deplorable results of treating personal “opinions” and private views as legitimate information resources, are mass panic, “infodemic,” social disorder, diminishment of social responsibility, anomy, increased social aggressiveness, political and administrative misuse, etc. [10–12].

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Negative Effects of Online “Real-Time” Statistics on SARS-CoV-2 One of the most unexpected sources of COVID-19 myths is World Health Organisation official statistics. The WHO’s two main metrics are “Confirmed cases” and “Confirmed deaths.” Let us consider in detail which myths can be generated by media on the basis of the official statistics. The official statistics provided by the WHO, affiliated agencies and news makers, can be by and large deeply misleading. For all pandemics of the past, even SARS outbreak of 2002–2004, the statistics was calculated offline and post factum, i.e. it was mainly determined after a considerable number of patients were treated. Now we have to deal with “online” COVID-19 statistics, with the numbers of cases, death toll etc. changing precisely on our PC and smartphone screens in the real-time mode. Such an approach generates poor quality of reported information. No checks and double-checks are made, and the figures are uploaded to information servers in 24 × 7 mode—the official servers were overloaded more than fifty times during period 1–4 April 2020 due to the tremendous number of users that would have liked to watch the figures online. The “temptation of the online” seems to affect all sides of our life and be partially explained by a psychological deficiency syndrome of the modern society. The addiction to the online is largely connected with visualisation and networking syndromes. Nowadays almost everybody would like to post or observe everything “in real time.” US President Barack Obama watched eliminating Osama bin Laden in real time. IS2 terrorists executed their victims online and translated their crimes in realtime mode over the Internet. Many Internet websites provide the information about world population growth, births and deaths in real time. Some websites try to report road accident death toll rate in real time. Life and death became phenomena visualised online in real-time mode. The WHO and various news agencies provide an opportunity to witness “spread” and “lethality” of SARS-CoV-2 virus by the cost of lowering quality and almost complete absence of the check of the numbers provided. Finally, the figures of WHO metrics on the infection rate migrate to millions of personal accounts in Instagram, Facebook, Weibo, WeChat and other social networks. The current situation with COVID-19 is the first case in the history of human society when mass media and global networks “allow” us—to be more exact, make us—watch the counters of those who are getting infectious and who die in real time, with these counters being supposed to demonstrate the “real” rate of SARS-CoV-2 spread across the world to us. However, the figures shown by the “real-time” counters may be highly deceptive. They are called to be the trumpets of the Doomsday by the ideological apparatuses, nothing less. Dimitri Simes stressed that “you cannot be easy and relaxed when you see in real time how your neighbour die” [13]. Our psychological need in brotherhood, our compassion and conscience are precisely the 2

IS is a terrorist organisation whose activity is legally forbidden in Russia and many European countries.

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targets at which the ideology of real-time openness is aimed. It causes infodemic and even greater panic among the population. How can the official figures be misleading? Note, the statistics is exact in itself, it is not false or feigned, but it causes great and almost universal misunderstanding by general audience, journalists, public figures and politicians. Let us turn to the online calculators.

“Number of COVID-19 Infected” Misleading Counter The WHO has the “COVID-19 Confirmed cases” metric [2–4] that almost all people regard as a more or less precise indicator of the infected (from the beginning of the pandemic or during a definite period of time). That understanding of the metric was disseminated via all major news agencies such as CNN, Fox News, BBC, Daily Telegraph, Deutsche Welle, as well as Russian, Indian, Chinese, Middle East, Southeast Asian TV channels, to say nothing of personal blogs and other private “information resources.” But that metric does not at all reflect the real number of the infected people. Period. This metric does not show the number of the carriers (“people who got ill”, in mass media terms3 ). The faster the humanity will understand that, the faster the public panic will be deadened. In reality, WHO reports the number of people that were proved to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 after RT-PCR4 analysis done. The test is generally made on the patients’ sputum [14, 15]. There is one thing that all of us should take into account: the real number of infected persons is much greater than “Confirmed cases” metric figures. Some estimations based upon the statistics of SARS, H5N1, H1N1, Ebola haemorrhagic fever and several other virus-caused diseases of the last two decades allow us to speculate that the number of infected may be up to two orders higher than the number of “confirmed cases” [16–21]. Is it a “good” or “bad” news for humanity? Despite it sounds horrible, in reality it is definitely a positive observation for us all. It indicates at least the following: (1) (2) (3)

the pandemic will be “finished”—we avoid saying “curbed”—sooner; real fatality rate is much lower; the immune stratum is being formed with larger number of symptomless carriers.

For example, some mathematical assumptions based on the statistical models say that for 1 April 2020 in Italy (one of the most affected countries) there might be at least ten times more infected and recovered persons in total than the number of “confirmed cases” [22] i.e. persons who were carriers and transmitters of SARS-CoV-2 virus and people who already had antibodies to the virus in their blood. The official statistics 3

Almost any news agency starts its TV broadcast with a statement like “Today in our country N people caught the COVID-19 infection.” This is highly delusive. They must say “Today in our country tests of N additional people proved that they have COVID-19 infection.” The semantic difference is obvious. 4 Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction.

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was around 120,000 reported cases for that time. The infected people not included in the statistics of “confirmed cases,” may have had – completely symptomless disease course, – clinical course with mild symptoms, or – they may have already recovered from the illness. That may reduce the true fatality rate at least one order below the percentage calculated “in real time.” The Italian figures that were beyond any understanding in March–April 2020, might shrink from 12% (case mortality rate) to some 1%, if they had been recalculated on the basis of the total virus carriers, not just confirmed cases. The discrepancy between case mortality rate and true fatality rate was constantly emphasised by different authors in scientific periodicals. E.g., that was the main source of misunderstanding statistical figures of H1N1 swine flu pandemic of 2009– 2010. In which way can we achieve a more reasonable statistics? In fact, it can be done in the same manner as a sociological survey is usually made. After choosing an appropriate scale (a house, condominium, district, or an organisation, working building, etc.), all persons—we would like to stress it, each and every person within that object—should be tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA and/or antibodies to it. Only such comprehensive a test shall give us the full and unbiased understanding of the virus spread, devoid of any ideological influence. Besides, only a set of such tests made on objects of different types can give the picture of age, gender, professional and social profiles of the virus spread. No such comprehensive sets of tests have been made in any country by autumn 2020, and that distorted the picture of virus transmission. None the less, the situation was slightly clarified by the outcome of a few total tests made in several medical institutions, in Russia, the West and the East. Such mass testing within medical organisation revealed that the ratio of carriers number to reported cases number was around 10, while only around 5% of all infected had severe atypical pneumonia symptoms of different pronouncedness, and nearly one quarter of the infected had no symptoms at all. That observation was not widely spoken of in mass media. Perhaps, a reason for it consists in the fact that clarifying the picture does not correspond to the ideology of the Doomsday many politicians, financiers and reporters were profiting from in the midst of the first COVID-19 wave. Demonstrating “online” death toll figures, videos of chosen cases of people’s sufferings abandoned in hospitals without due medical help, tears of those who lost their relatives, were much more profitable for gaining political points, financial profit, Instagram “likes,” journalist cheap fame and other benefits of the global network society, whatever preposterous, sordid and ignoble it may seem to a reasonable person. To sum up, few people guess that the first derivative of the number of confirmed cases, i.e. the “speed of virus walking across the Earth” reflects the speed of setting up the RT-PCR or antibody-based test systems more than the real rate of virus spread. In fact, the common situation is that the virus has reached the area being tested much earlier and infected much more people.

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Leading world politicians should finally realise that uncritical considering the WHO “Confirmed cases” metric as a reliable indicator of SARS-CoV-2 spread around the Earth shall lead only to prolonging quarantine and self-isolation regimes for several months, possibly a year or two years—it is the average timeline for a virus with droplet transmission to form the population block immunity. In turn, such prolongation of quarantine mode of life with additional curfews and martial law zones already established in some areas, will inevitably result in the crash of major economies, civil wars, social unrest and revolutions on a scale of the whole planet. The politicians must switch from being another social actors disseminating panic to dependable persons the population of their countries may rely on. They have no other way than to start to listen to expert judgement of renowned microbiologists, virologists, epidemiologists and ecologists, not “opinions” of Instagram users and media “stars.” For 4 April 2020, the value of “Confirmed cases” counter was 1,000,000 cases. So, did we have to wait until it is 5,500,000,000 human beings? Let us reiterate, this metric does not reflect the real number of the infected! In the situation of the virus spread in the global society, the absolute numbers of the infected do not play significant role. The relative numbers (percentage) must be used. In a number of countries, in autumn 2020 several governmental representatives and media channels started to startle people again by speculations about the second SARS-CoV-2 wave, using absolute numbers. In reality that meant the following. The number of RT-PCR tests was increased several times in comparison with April–May 2020. Logically, the absolute number of the infected also increased, but not because of the virus’s becoming more dangerous, only because of highly elevated amount of tests. E.g., the relative number of the infected (percentage) shrank from 6 to 10% in Russian and Ukraine in spring 2020 to 2–2.5% in autumn 2020. These numbers must be used in news, media and governmental press releases. Instead, absolute numbers are used to pour additional oil on flames of people’s fears.

“Number of COVID-19 Deaths” Misleading Counter If the WHO’s metric “Confirmed cases” was mainly misleading and caused wrong conclusions and implications, perhaps the metric of “Confirmed deaths” showed us a more realistic picture? Once again, no. But what can be wrong with it, after all? The “Confirmed deaths” metric was also very deceptive. Its title hinted that medical workers should have confirmed the death of a patient due to SARS-CoV-2 virus. Here comes the uncertainty. SARS-CoV-2, as well as its closest genetic relation SARS-CoV that caused the 2002–2004 atypical pneumonia outbreak, and unlike Ebola or Nipah viruses, mainly does not kill people itself. In Ebola, Dengue, Yellow fevers or Nipah cases, the virus proliferation in a human organism directly leads to organ malfunction, internal bleeding, etc. in a very short time (hours to a few days). The symptomatic picture is almost universal, with very few deviations.

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In COVID-19 clinical course, usually its complications result in someone’s death. The most dangerous complication in SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV cases, is “atypical” pneumonia, i.e. pneumonia with different clinical course than pneumococcus, streptococcus or any other bacterial-caused pneumonia. Unlike Ebola, Dengue, Yellow fevers or Nipah which lead to acute and almost identical symptoms of almost all infected people, symptoms of COVID-19-induced atypical pneumonia are characteristic only for a small fraction of infected, with the symptomatic deviation’s being huge, from a completely asymptomatic course to a very dangerous state to life. Usually the people with severe COVID-19 symptoms, represent social risk groups, e.g. they may be aged persons, smokers, people with depressed immune system, HIV carriers, chronic alcohol drinkers, inhabitants of ecologically unfavourable districts (Northern Italy is such a place) etc. This does not mean, however, that a human outside the risk groups cannot get infected—they can and do. We should work with probabilities here, e.g. (numbers are not exact and they are provided only as possible examples) 60% of persons of 80 years old or more, will get infectious, and around 15% of them will have atypical pneumonia symptoms with significance level of 5%; while a 40 year-old person without chronic diseases will “catch” the infection with the probability of 20% with pneumonia cases of 4% with the same significance level. Cannot we feel the difference? A common approach of a media commentator, however, is to tell the audience how many new persons perished of COVID-19 during a given day. The English term “to perish” is a synonym of “to be killed at a war or during an accident” and it can by no means be used here. People with COVID-19 diagnosis may die of different causes, sometimes (especially for highly aged persons) even of natural reasons. Only a fraction of the infected deceased people died of pneumonia-like COVID-19 complications. In spring 2020, the Italian and Spanish scenarios were universally taken as a standard to which every country may (and possibly, will) inevitably come. That was an obvious source of deception. To put aside healthcare system considerations, Italy and Spain are countries with unusual social risk profile for mainly social and demographic reasons: (1) (2) (3) (4)

largest level of global tourism in the world; enormous level of migration from the Mediterranean, Near and Middle East to Europe; poor ecological situation (for Northern Italy), i.e. severe air pollution concentrated on areas south of the Alps [23–25, cit. by 26]; on 25 February Italian Ministry of Health adopted statistics gathering policies quite opposite to those that may have clarified the situation, i.e. the policies that prioritised testing people with severe symptoms and almost cancelled testing for asymptomatic or mild symptomatic people [27]. To be sure, that measure also made a large statistical skew towards an increase of confirmed cases rate.

The WHO statistics did not take all of this into account, since the WHO provided just “net value of death toll.” With the ideological “treatment” made by TV hosts and Internet news makers, we (and politicians too) started to treat COVID-19 fatality

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rate as an everyday war death toll communiqué. This was also a source of infodemic and blurring the situation with the coronavirus effects. Let us make some straightforward calculations. As for May 2020, around 16% of the reported cases had atypical pneumonia symptoms, of which only 20% had severe symptoms that required mechanical invasive ventilation. So, we multiply 0.16 × 0.20 and receive 0.032, i.e. only 3.2% of the reported cases had severe symptoms. That is obviously not 5% of the infected or even of the total population, as mass media psychosis continued to put in our ears regularly from day to day in spring 2020. 5% of the infected people would break any healthcare system of the world. Many politicians paralysed with fear of such a news, started to restructure all their economies to fulfil this need in spring 2020. Of course, additional hospital beds with ventilators should be reserved for an emergency case, but obviously not the number to which these politicians were heading in fear. To make N ICU (intensive care unit) hospital beds, where N = 5% of the total population, i.e. 0.05 × 8 bln = 400,000,000, is beyond the economic resources of all developed countries brought together. Politicians have to clearly see why such media figures are delusive. There may be an emergency need (i.e. the figure much above a realistic figure) in P ~ 0.032 (severe pneumonia-like symptoms to the reported cases ration) × 0.05 (estimation of reported cases to the infected ratio) × 0.6 (block immunity) × 8bln = 7.7 mln around the world. This number is high, but it is a priori overcautious. These 7.7 mln will not get infected at one moment. The Gaussian- or Poisson-like form (SIR or SEIR compartment models) of almost any pandemic infection rate along with 2-year timeline of the complete spread of the virus will give approximately 7.7 mln/730 = 10,500 beds a day for the whole world. But this number is also overcautious for the following reasons. The number of patients with severe symptoms may be much lower than 7.7 mln, since the virus will infect more mobile persons with larger probability. Healthier and younger people will “catch” the virus first, but they will have an asymptomatic course of the disease with much greater probability. Taking into account the young to aged ratio, mobility factors, and this probability, it may be well near 0.7–1 mln hospital beds in total for a two-year timeline. So, our number diminishes to 1,000–1,500 beds a day on a scale of the world. Remembering that we deal not with rectangle-like (even number of patients every day, for hospital bed or ventilation need at a given day), but with Gaussianlike (plateau-like patient growth and decay, with the maximum approximately in the middle of the time range) dependency, we make the following iteration with assumption of average need of 15-day non-invasive ventilation in general hospital wards (overcautious) for severe symptomatic patients, average dispersion of 5 days2 (based on statistical data on COVID-19 spread in China and Republic of Korea) and receive nearly 150,000–180,000 beds at the peak of the worldwide spread. 180,000 ICU beds (reality) versus 400,000,000 (imaginary picture in media myth) hospital beds for the whole world for the whole pandemic, these are the results of a very overcautious calculation of healthcare capacities needed for the containment of COVD-19.

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Spread of SARS-CoV-2-Related Conspiracy Theories According to our research of health behavioural patterns of Russian and Ukrainian population in regard to COVID-19 containment, of 1,315 citizens randomly surveyed, 551 persons (41.9%) believed in conspiracy theories and violated at least one prescription of authorities (Table 19.1). 88% of these 551 respondents explained that the main reason for their mistrust in public health interventions and accepting conspiracy theories was irrational Russian and Ukrainian government response to the pandemic. 1,024 people (77.9%) found administrative measures taken by Russian and Ukrainian government on COVID-19 prevention inconsistent with common sense. Table 19.1 presents main COVID-19 conspiracy ideas in Russian and Ukrainian society and possible sources of their origin, that we revealed in our survey. According to Daniel von Wachter, there should be a distinct distinguishing between ‘ungrounded’ conspiracy beliefs (e.g., SARS-CoV-2 is a biological weapon) and ‘rational’ conspiracy beliefs, i.e. the system of ideas and corresponding heath behavioural response of population, where people tried to find logic in administrative steps taken by authorities in COVID-19 situation and explain them somehow [28]. In Russia and Ukraine, a number of persons voluntarily exacerbated their COVID19 clinical course, even to lethality in some cases, due to their mistrust in public healthcare interventions.

Conclusions COVID-19 is different from any other pandemics/epidemics of the past in its “comprehensive” “real-time” mass media coverage. In reality, this coverage turns out to be not at all comprehensive, quite the opposite. The statistical data on the pandemics of the past, from the Black Death of the fourteenth century in England to the “swine” flu H1N1 of 2008–2009 were available to humanity only a posteriori, after the data were checked, double-checked, analysed and presented in an appropriate form. Even twelve years ago, with H1N1 virus spread, we did not deal with “online” and “real-time” media coverage, not to say about the pandemics of earlier times. In the past, people had enough time to deliberate on pandemic data and evaluate their significance, usefulness and heuristic importance for the future times. Now everything is different. The humanity seems to have already transformed to a truly global networked society without mental, national or any other borders, without control of information torrents, but with a high degree of uncritical apprehension of “data,” “expert opinions” and “news.” An “opinion” on COVID-19 of a non-professional blogger in, say, China, influences hundreds of thousands people in England or Germany, causing anomy and apocalyptic moods. That should be stopped at a political level as soon as possible, if we do not wish overturning of the world economy and social order, either by COVID-19 or another future epidemic.

Working people

World is transforming to Orwell’s 1984 society, ‘police state’ with total control of citizens and all personal freedoms canceled

The world governments wishes Aged people contractions of budget loads by abridging of aged population that must decease due to side effects of isolation measures

Moscow mayor introduced strict control over relocation of citizens since 25 March 2020 with CCTV surveillance of almost every human and car. Car trips are limited to two ones a week. Financial penalties for disobedience

Requirement of self-isolation to aged people are much stricter than to younger persons

Main groups of population that share/support the belief Scientific researchers, academia, university faculty

Conspiracy belief

Putin publicly called All world leaders are aware of SARS-CoV-2 ‘deadly’ several artificial coronavirus origin times without any necessary from a laboratory explanations of its ‘deadliness’

Administrative action/attitude

Intensified mobility of aged persons, increased risk for them to contract COVID-19 in grocery stores and during meetings with peers

Intensified social communication with constant relocations

Avoiding wearing individual protective units (masks, gloves, etc.)

Potential health behavioral response

(continued)

In comparison with USA, in Russia many families live with their aged parents. Stricter self-isolation of aged persons is logical for US, but senseless for Russia

Unconstitutional measures by Moscow mayor, direct violation of democracy

Technically, any virus is ‘deadly,’ as there are always fatalities, including for influenza viruses. But having called SARS-CoV-2 ‘deadly,’ Putin demonstrated scientific ignorance. This is the word appropriate for, e.g. Ebola virus with case fatality rate of 90%, not SARS-CoV-2 with case fatality rate 0.9%

Comment

Table 19.1 Dubious administrative actions/attitudes, COVID-19 conspiracy theories in Russian and Ukrainian society and corresponding mistrustful health behavioral responses

19 Ideological Media Coverage of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic 303

Different groups of population

A plot to curtail ill population

Refusal of medical care institutions, including hospitals, to accept necessary medications, including for HIV patients, as a gift from non-profit organization and other sponsors

Hospital patients, those who had COVID-19 disease

Different groups of population

Governments wish to curtail world population by poisoning people with potentially dangerous chemicals

Chloroquine + azithromycin therapy was prescribed coercively to all COVID-19 patients without distinguishing between conditions. Specialized therapy (e.g. antiretroviral therapy) is often suspended

Main groups of population that share/support the belief

Russian official informational There is no such virus at all. It resources on COVID-19 is a hoax statistics are dim and insufficient in quality and amount. No important data are provided

Conspiracy belief

Administrative action/attitude

Table 19.1 (continued)

Avoiding to be hospitalized

Ignoring any medical advices, public health interventions and/or symptoms

Rejection to be treated with any medications

Potential health behavioral response

(continued)

Very serious managerial mistake of hospital and other healthcare administration, violating fundamental principles of medical ethics

Statistics must be disclosed in full and brought to, e.g. CDC level

No clinical trials that would prove or refute Chloroquine + azithromycin effectiveness in COVID-19 cases, were made in Russia or Ukraine. It was just a political will and administrative decision of Ministry of Health. There are many reasons to believe that serious harm was made to cardiovascular system and liver of a number of patients

Comment

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Religious people or their supporters, political opposition

New criminal offense laws against those who makes publicly available ‘disinformation on COVID-19.’ Financial penalties or imprisonment for violation

‘Police state’ dawn with transition to total digitization of people

Religious people or their supporters

Closing Christian temples World governments are without closing grocery stores controlled by upcoming anti-Christ forces

SARS-CoV-2 does not exist. People accustomed to critical The story about it was invented reasoning by media and supra-governmental forces

Media psychosis on official TV channels about virus utmost danger and doomed humanity. Constant searching for geopolitical enemies severely stricken with COVID-19, by official media

Main groups of population that share/support the belief

Conspiracy belief

Administrative action/attitude

Table 19.1 (continued) Comment

Christianity has very strong support in Russian and Ukrainian society. It is unclear why Russian and Ukrainian government banned attendance of Church services with supermarkets open

(continued)

Counteracting Government appropriated the government-backed healthcare right to decide what constitutes measures ‘allowable’ information that would be lauded and what makes false information that would be punished. Transition to totalitarianism is obvious

Ignoring any epidemiological risk

Ignoring most medical Governmental inability, lack of advices, public health wish to control COVID-19 interventions and/or symptoms informational coverage or benefiting from it. Irresponsibility of media that make additional publicity for themselves and increase their ratings

Potential health behavioral response

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Conspiracy belief

This is a plot to enrich individual protective units makers

Compulsory wearing of individual protecting units (masks and gloves) outside, especially in Moscow. Financial penalties for disobedience

Aged persons, chronically ill persons

COVID-19 has nothing to do Different groups of population with this. World leaders have been maturing their plans to totalitarianism for a long time, and now they agreed with each other to implement these plans simultaneously

People of art, theater, film circles, scientific researchers, religious people

Main groups of population that share/support the belief

Multiple prolongation of quarantine and isolation measures, especially in Moscow, without proving their necessity

Strict media censorship. Firing All personal freedoms and/or of reporters and media opinions will soon be commentators that disagree appropriated by the state with official governmental interpretation of COVID-19 information

Administrative action/attitude

Table 19.1 (continued) Comment

Ignoring and opposing wearing of individual protecting units, even in premises, when they may be useful

Distrust in any COVID-19 numbers, suspecting lies everywhere

(continued)

Requirement to wear individual protective units outside (on streets) may be not merely senseless, but dangerous due to multiple side effects (sweating in hot times, pulmonary and cardiovascular risks, additional bacteriological infection hazard of a contaminated mask, etc.)

Management errors of Russian healthcare system

Counteracting Recent dismissal of the author government-backed healthcare broadcast of internationally measures renowned film director Nikita Mikhalkov, who was exposing many COVID-19-related governmental errors, by TV pro-governmental channel Russia-24 management was strange

Potential health behavioral response

306 F. E. I. Legach et al.

Conspiracy belief

COVID-19 has nothing to do with this. World governments want mass impoverishment of the majority of people, with enormous enrichment of the world elites from behind the veil

Forced transforming people to robots without free will, by means of electronic nanochip-implanting through massive compulsory vaccination

Administrative action/attitude

Orders to switch off Russian economy prolonged multiple times, without proving their necessity

New administrative responsibility laws against those who will not accede to a future forced vaccination against COVID-19. Financial penalties for any future disobedience

Table 19.1 (continued) Potential health behavioral response

Fundamentalist religious sects representatives

Sabotaging any vaccination efforts

Self-employed, Sabotaging any COVID-19 businesspersons, those who healthcare surveillance suffered or lost their businesses measures

Main groups of population that share/support the belief

No vaccine was ready, either in Russia or in other countries, by autumn 2020. When a vaccine has been made, it should be pre-clinically and clinically carefully tested before any medical utilization. Only after that one may argue about its (in)-appropriateness for massive vaccination. No vaccination may be compulsory. To discuss bills against future possible opposition to possible vaccination is nonsense and blatant breaching of democracy

Actions of Russian and Ukrainian governments allegedly aimed at saving economy and businesses, turned out to be populist and ineffective. They did not save personal businesses, but increased federal budget loads

Comment

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With all that taken into account, we can have a more realistic picture of SARSCoV-2’s influencing the global world society. The virus already turned out to be less dangerous than it was supposed in January-March 2020. We should not neglect the hazards of the novel coronavirus, as there are serious cases and sometimes the whole regions or even continents are suddenly stricken with surges of many severe cases of the disease, as, e.g., India in spring 2021. The main means of preventing people’s panic, civil disobedience and violent protests is to provide full, consistent and comprehensive statistical information on SARS-CoV-2 spread. The temptation of governments of many countries to play Big Brothers for their citizens, using human fears and weaknesses and superseding correct SARS-CoV-2-related informational coverage with flagrant scaremongering, may be exceptionally dangerous.

References 1. Rushkoff D. Media Virus!: Hidden Agendas in Popular Culture. New York: Ballantine Books; 1994. 2. WHO. WHO Mythbusters on COVID-19. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novelcoronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters 3. WHO. COVID-19 statistics on AGRIS portal. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685 d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd 4. WHO. WHO COVID-19 statistics. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-corona virus-2019 5. Flahault A, Zylberman P (2010) Influenza pandemics: past, present and future challenges. Public Health Rev 32:319–340. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03391605 6. Imran M, Malik T, Ansari AR, Khan A (2016) Mathematical analysis of swine influenza epidemic model with optimal control. Jpn J Ind Appl Math 33(1):269–296. https://doi.org/10. 1007/s13160-016-0210-3 7. Hedges C (2014) The psychosis of permanent war. J Palest Stud 44(1):42–51 8. Leiviskä Deland AC, Karlsson G, Fatouros-Bergman H (2011) A phenomenological analysis of the psychotic experience. Hum Stud 34(1):23–42 9. Ambachtsheer KP, Coggin TD, Hunter JE (1983) The Quality of Information Coefficients. Financ Anal J 39(6):79–80 10. Burt R (2001) Bandwidth and echo: trust, information, and gossip in social networks. In: Rauch JE, Alessandra C (eds) Networks and markets. Russell Sage Foundation, New York, pp , 30–74 11. Coeira E (2013) Social networks, social media, and social diseases. BMJ: Br Med J 346(7912):22–24 12. Videras J (2013) Social networks and the environment. Annu Rev Resour Econ 5:211–226 13. Simes D (2020) One enemy for all. In: Big Game. https://www.1tv.ru/shows/big-game/vyp uski/odin-vrag-na-ves-mir-bolshaya-igra-vypusk-ot-28-03-2020 14. Hase R, Kurita T, Muranaka E, et al (2020) A case of imported COVID-19 diagnosed by PCRpositive lower respiratory specimen but with PCR-negative throat swabs. Am J Trop Med Hyg. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0203 15. Sivakorn C, Luvira V, Muangnoicharoen S, et al (2020) Case report: walking pneumonia in novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): mild symptoms with marked abnormalities on chest imaging. Am J Trop Med Hyg. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-0203 16. Sassin W (2020) Auf dem Weg zu einem globalen GAU? Eur Crossrd 1(1):010110201. https:// hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/eurcrossrd.1.010110201

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17. Sassin W (2020) Die Grenzen der Ökonomie: Globalisierung—Vom Füllhorn zum Giftbecher? Eur Crossrd 1(1):010410216. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/eurcrossrd.1.010410216 18. Sharov KS (2020) Which way to go, Eurasia? Eur Crossrd 1(1):010000000 19. Sharov KS, Dupont L (2020) Europeanisation de l’Eurasie au-delà des frontières de l’Union européenne: L’extimité du genre en tant que produit d’exportation. Eur Crossrd 1(1):010510013. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/eurcrossrd.1.010510013 20. Sassin W (2020) Behindert die Demokratie die Nachhaltigkeit in Eurasien? Eur Crossrd 1(2):020000201. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/eurcrossrd.1.020000201 21. Suoquin F (2020) Auf der Suche nach dem Wesen der Evolution. Eur Crossrd 1(2):020210220. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/eurcrossrd.1.020210220 22. Onder G, Rezza G, Brusaferro S (2020) Case-fatality rate and characteristics of patients dying in relation to COVID-19 in Italy. JAMA. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4683 23. Croft et al (2019) The association between respiratory infection and air pollution in the setting of air quality policy and economic change. Ann. Am. Thorac. Soc. 16:321–330 24. European Environment Agency (2019) Air pollution country fact sheets. https://www.eea.eur opa.eu/themes/air/country-fact-sheets/2019-country-fact-sheets 25. Martuzzi et al (2006) Health impact of PM10 and ozone in 13 Italian cities. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. WHOLIS: E8870 26. Bhakdi S (2020) Offener brief von professor Sucharit Bhakdi an Bundeskanzlerin Dr. Angela Merkel. https://swprs.org/offener-brief-von-professor-sucharit-bhakdi-an-bundeskanzlerin-drangela-merkel 27. Rettner R (2020) Why are deaths from coronavirus so high in Italy? In: Live Science. https:// www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html 28. Von Wachter D (2020) Einephilosophische Untersuchung des Neuen Coronavirus. Beacon J Stud Ideol Ment Dimens 3(1):010910203. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12656/thebeacon.3. 010910203

Chapter 20

Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race Vladimir M. Moskovkin, Tatyana V. Saprykina, and Igor V. Boichuk

Abstract In the Chapter, we explain the phenomenon of the coronavirus publication race, analyse a number of typical bibliometric articles, which are structured according to the standard principle—presenting ranked lists of publications distributed by countries, journals and institutions, as well as lists of the most cited articles. Twenty-one online platforms were identified, on which the largest number of articles on coronavirus topics were published, of which two samples were identified as of 15 December 2020 (82 articles with the term “COVID-19” in article titles and 63 articles with the term “Coronavirus” in article titles) articles with over 1,000 citations in Elsevier journals and over 500 times on other online platforms. These articles were categorized by authors, countries and institutions. The samples of articles were reduced to a single sample with one hundred and twenty-five articles that did not overlap in two samples, on the basis of which a detailed analysis of the structures of international co-authorship with the identification of thirty-one countries, the authors of which participated in international collaboration on the coronavirus research, was made. For this analysis, a square symmetric matrix of international co-authorship was developed. A content analysis of highly cited publications on SARS-CoV-2 was carried out, revealing overlapping topics, for which the multi-topic factor proposed by us was calculated.

V. M. Moskovkin (B) Centre of Publication Activity Development, Institute of Economics and Management, World Economy Department, Belgorod State National Research University, 85 Pobedy St, Belgorod 108015, Russia e-mail: [email protected] T. V. Saprykina Institute of Economics and Management, Department of Innovative Economics and Finance, Belgorod State National Research University, 85 Pobedy St, Belgorod 108015, Russia e-mail: [email protected] I. V. Boichuk Institute of Cross-Cultural Communications and International Relations, Department of Foreign Languages and Professional Communication, Belgorod State National Research University, 85 Pobedy St, Belgorod 108015, Russia e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0_20

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Introduction Currently, there is an exponential growth in publications on the topic of coronavirus, and the coronavirus publication race itself is a very curious phenomenon. To research it, we used the advanced search capabilities of Google Scholar, testing the terms “Coronavirus” and “COVID-19” in it. A strong exponential growth of publications has always been observed in “inflated” research areas of knowledge (nanoscience, computer science, genomics, etc.) [1], but here the growth just goes off scale. We have tested these terms in Google Scholar for the last eight months and obtained the following data (Table 20.1). The search was carried out in the line “in which the exact phrase occurs”, and the time interval was limited to 2020, since the term “coronavirus” itself has been known for a long time. It should be noted that a small percentage of articles for December 2019 cannot be searched by Google Scholar, so its minimum search coverage is one year. We see that in 2020, approximately 260 thousand articles were published in which the word “Coronavirus” occurs, and about 3,700 articles with a similar Russianlanguage term. In the titles of articles, this term was found in both languages, respectively, in 58,900 and 160 articles (Table 20.1). The number of responses to the terms “COVID-19”, “SARS-CoV-2”, “2019nCoV” was several times less, and we assume that most of these responses were included in articles corresponding to responses to the query for the term “Coronavirus”, since we noticed that in one and the same article the same viral infection is called differently. Thus, our experiments in Google Scholar have shown that of the Table 20.1 Growth of scientific publications on the problem of coronavirus Term Coronavirus, 07.04.2020

Number of publications when Number of publications when searching throughout the article searching by article title 23,100

11,700

137

4

54,800

22,100

305

18

Coronavirus, 03.08.2020

92,600

33,200

Koronavirus (in Russian), 03.08.2020

1,350

60

Coronavirus, 16.11.2020

247,000

51,800

Koronavirus (in Russian), 16.11.2020

2,890

Coronavirus, 19.12.2020

259,000

58,900

3,650

160

Koronavirus (in Russian), 07.04.2020 Coronavirus, 11.05.2020 Koronavirus (in Russian), 11.05.2020

Koronavirus (in Russian), 19.12.2020

136

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four names of the infection in question, the name “Coronavirus” is the most popular in scientific papers. Let us estimate the approximate share of publications on coronavirus-related topics from the total global volume of articles for the year. According to the US National Science Foundation (2018) report, 2,555,959 articles on science and engineering (S & E) were published in 2018. Of this amount, 259,000 coronavirus articles make up 10%. The calculation is not very correct, since the U.S. NSF counts articles against the Web of Science database, and Google Scholar counts all articles, including preprints. Not only physicians and biologists write on the topic of coronavirus, but also sociologists, philosophers, linguists, psychologists, mathematicians, computer scientists, engineers and specialists in other fields of knowledge. A burning topic has appeared and everyone is trying to express themselves on it, but as Stefan Zweig wrote about this: “The biggest trouble for science is to turn into fashion.” How do the journals manage to print all this? But people no longer rely on them, they publish preprints on ArXiv.org, medRxiv, ResearchGate, on other servers and open access platforms, just to be the first. Against this background, we see two orders of magnitude fewer articles with the Russian-language term of the virus in question. Since a huge cluster of publications on coronavirus topics emerged, many review articles naturally arose, although research articles are distinguished by large lists of references as well. Our Advanced Search of Google Scholar anywhere in the article in the line: with exact phrase keyword “coronavirus” in conjunction with the keyword “review” (entered in the line: with at least of the words”) in the search for 2020 resulted in 228,000 responses. A visual review of them showed that the number of real publications in which these words occur simultaneously in their titles does not exceed 400. The following types of reviews are used: systematic review, rapid review, review and meta-analysis, narrative review, scoping review. But we will be more interested in publications in a similar search, where the keyword “review” is replaced by the keyword “bibliometric analysis”. In this case, we received 958 responses. We conducted both of the above experiments in Google Scholar on 01.04.2020. Let us consider some of the most important works from the last experiment. It is known that PubMed has been hosting COVID-19—publications on a daily basis since January 17, 2020, when the number of publications was zero. At the same time, over 300 articles were posted on April 18 [1]. In this article, for the period under consideration, there is a graph of such publications posted on a daily basis, which in a smoothed form has an exponential form with sufficiently large oscillations. In a shorter period of time J. Lou et al. [2] from January 2020 to 1 March 2020 found 183 publications on PubMed, which were distributed among the first correspondent authors from 20 different countries and 80 different journals. Most of them are published in the Journal of Medical Virology (25). A total of 123 articles published in China were found, of which 103 in English, and only 18 articles from the USA.

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Growth of publications on COVID topics on a daily and weekly basis is dealt with, respectively, in the works [4−5], which we found outside the framework of the above experiment in Google Scholar. The first study using Dimensions, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS) and the curated list of LitCovid examined the daily growth of COVID-19-related publications in citation databases and digital libraries from January 1 to April 7 and found better coverage (9,435 publications) compared to WoS (718) and Scopus (1568). In the second study, PubMed grew around 1,000 publications weekly, and the PubMed Central (1398), medRxiv (989), and SSRN (608) repositories had the best coverage of COVID-19 open access publications. In the work of K. Kousha & M. Thewall [1], the Dimensions search tool was used. Its search engine is similar to Google Scholar, in the sense of indexing documents using public information from the Web, but has an Applications Programming Interface (API) that supports automatic downloading for all query matches [5]. K. Kousha & M. Thewall [1] made queries on a daily basis from March 21 to April 18 2020 for various spellings of coronavirus infection, the dynamics of publications and their citation were studied. In addition, for the entire period of time (from December 2019 to March 24 2020), the distribution of publications by subject categories, journals and their types was carried out. Based on the authors’ three tables, we made a summary table for such distributions (Table 20.2). Their tables also indicated publications as of 24 March. It is worth noting that in the work of Kousha & Thewall [1], one of the tables did not quite correctly title publications in journals, since in addition to journals, preprint archives were also examined. Too many publications in this search are due to the fact that all types of them were searched, including articles, preprints, books, chapters, theses, monographs, proceedings, and even editorials and commentaries were taken into account in journal publications. As you can see from Table 20.2, the total number of publications for the entire period was 21,392, which is consistent with our data obtained using Google Scholar as of April 7 2020 (Table 20.1). This is a very important result, as K. Kousha & M. Thewall [1] noted that “The exact COVID-19 coverage of Google Scholar is difficult to assess because it is not possible to download large sets of publication records.” Indeed, Google Scholar allows you to view and download only the first thousand publications. An order of magnitude fewer publications for the same period of time were identified by S.B. Patil [6], since he searched exclusively for articles and preprints, and only for one name of coronavirus infection—COVID-19. He collected 2,184 publications from 617 sources (journals and preprint archives), which were distributed across 57 countries and covered 6,389 authors, of which 343 published single-authored publications. From the author’s three tables, we formed a summary table for the top ten publications in relation to countries, journals (including preprint archives) and institutions (Table 20.3). In Yu, Y., et al. [7] as of 20 May 2020 on the subject of COVID-19, 15,805 articles were identified in the Web of Science (WoS) database, of which 186 were published in December 2019. Of this number, there were 10,601 research articles (67.1%) and

316 364

Medical Microbiology

Clinical Sciences

Biochemistry and Cell Biology

Immunology

Genetics

Cardiorespiratory Medicine & Haematology

Artificial Intelligence and Image Processing

Neurosciences

Microbiology

K., & Thelwall, M. [1]

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9

10.

a Kousha,

All

Public Health and Health Services

1.

383

459

803

1,096

2,192

2,159

2,773

3,072

Subject area

Rank

1

1

2

2

3

4

4

9

10

13

%

Journal of Medical Virology

Viruses

ChemRxiv

BMJ

Research Square

bioRxiv

arXiv

SSRN Electronic Journal

medRxiv

[None]

Journal/Sources

176

196

210

262

341

358

389

855

1,234

2,932

All

Table 20.2 Distribution of COVID-19 publications by the top 10 subject area, journals/sources & type documenta %

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

4

6

14

Type document

Proceeding

Monograph

Preprint

Chapter

Book

Article

All

186

166

2,236

1,645

832

16,330

%

1

1

10

8

4

76

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 315

11

Singapore

Japan

Germany

Canada

Taiwan

Switzerland

Netherlands

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

a Patil,

S.B. [6]

UK

3.

10.

23

USA

2.

22

30

19

28

33

88

229

647

China

1.

All

Country

Rank

0.5

1.1

1.0

1.4

0.9

1.3

1.5

4.0

10.5

29.6

%

Journal of Medical Virology

British Medical Journal (BMJ)

Science

Lancet Respiratory Medicine

Radiology

Lancet

medRxiv

Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)

New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)

Nature

Journal/Sources

61

67

71

120

130

154

181

199

222

354

All

2.8

3.1

3.3

5.5

6.0

7.1

8.3

9.1

10.2

16.2

%

62

All

Fudan University, China

Sun Yat-Sen University, China

Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China

Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, China

National University of Singapore, Singapore

Zhejiang University, China

Wuhan University, China

University of California, USA

28

30

30

31

31

34

34

41

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 44

Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China

Institutions

Table 20.3 Distribution of COVID-19 publications by the top 10 countries, journal/sources and institutionsa

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.0

2.8

%

316 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

317

1,189 (7.5%)—review articles. 14,609 (92.4%) articles were written in English, 623 (3.9%)—in Chinese. 11,575 (73.2%) articles were Open Access, 3,626 (22.9%) were indexed in the WoS core database. From this article, we have combined data similar to the article [6] into a pivot table (Table 20.4). In the same work, Top 100 most cited articles in the field of COVID-19 are selected. Visualized analysis was performed using the VOSviewer tool. A fuller coverage of WoS publications was used by S. Al-Zaman [8] (December 2019 to June 2020), who obtained 16,384 COVID-19 related literature items, spread over 55,352 authors, 2,964 sources, 159 countries, 12,805 organizations, and 221 disciplines. Of the total number of publications, 40.015% falls on articles, from the USA—25.433%, in English—95.313% (there were observed publications in 19 languages). Most of the articles were published in the British Medical Journal (488) and by scientists from the University of London (2,259). In December, 793 articles were published. The author notes that at the time of writing, at least 15 relevant bibliometric analyzes have been published. As before, using the author’s tabular data, we compiled a pivot table for three Top 10 positions (Table 20.5). Similar studies on the Scopus database for the period from 1 December 2019 to 1 April 2020 were carried out by H. Dehghanbanadaki et al. [9]. A total of 923 COVID19 documents were retrieved, of which 418 were original articles. All received 2,551 citations with an average citation of 2.76 per document. As before, for the three Top 10 positions (countries, journals, institutions) of the three tables of the above authors, we have compiled a summary in Table 20.6. Much more Scopus-publications were obtained by S.H. Zyoud & S.W. Al-Jabi [10] from December 2019 up until June 2020. They found 19,044 publications, of which 48% (9140) were articles. Total publications included authors from 159 different countries. As before, we presented their data for three Top 10 positions in Table 20.7. Similar studies were carried out by Zh.Tao et al. [11] on 9 February 2020 on Web of Science with search strategy: TI = (coronavirus) AND Language = English. Unlike previous studies, these authors covered a wider time interval: 2000−2020. As a result, 9,760 articles were found. As in the previous case, we presented them in Table 20.8. From a comparison of Tables 20.3–20.7, we see that the top four countries include China, USA and UK everywhere, and the top ten countries — in addition to these countries, are also Germany and Canada. The same 5 countries appear in Table 20.8, obtained over a wider time interval. From these five tables we also see that the top ten journals include The Lancet and the Journal of Medical Virology 5 times, BMJ, JAMA and NEJM 4 times. In Tables 20.3–20.7, Huazhong University of Science and Technology appeared five times and Wuhan University four times. Table 20.8, as noted above, was obtained over a wider time interval and not one of its journals was included in the other 5 tables. At the same time, the first three Chinese institutions are quite often found in Tables 20.3–20.7. As we can see from Tables 20.3–20.8, the authors conduct their research in a typical way, identifying the first tens of countries, journals and institutions, the same applies to other publications of a bibliometric or scientometric nature. As we

USA

UK

Italy

Canada

Germany

India

Australia

France

Switzerland

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Y., et al. [7]

China

1.

a Yu

Country

Rank

86

87

114

128

129

130

282

295

705

838

All

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.8

1.9

4.5

5.3

%

Nature Medicine

New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)

Archives of Academic Emergency Medicine

Emerging Microbes & Infections

Intensive Care Medicine

Euro Surveillance

Cureus

Journal of Medical Virology

Lancet

British Medical Journal (BMJ)

Journal

23

24

24

24

26

36

43

91

104

211

All

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.7

1.3

%

University of Toronto

Harvard Medical School

Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

Capital Medical University, China

Fudan University, China

Zhejiang University, China

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Wuhan University, China

Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China

Institutions

Table 20.4 Distribution of COVID-19 publications by the top 10 countries, journal, institutionsa

36

67

40

40

43

45

47

56

64

90

All

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

%

318 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

620

496

China

Italy

UK

Germany

India

Canada

France

Australia

Spain

Al-Zaman [8]

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

a Sayeed

662

730

738

745

1,575

1,921

2,979

4,167

USA

1.

All

Country

Rank

3.0

3.8

4.0

4.5

4.5

4.5

9.6

11.7

18.2

25.4

%

Head and Neck

New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)

Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)

Critical Care

Nature

Cureus

Lancet

Journal of Infection

Journal of Medical Virology

British Medical Journal (BMJ)

Journal

95

113

113

120

136

154

191

261

303

488

All

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.2

1.6

1.8

3.0

%

352

403

488

All

University of Toronto, Canada

Inserm (French National Institute of Health and Medical Research), France

Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

University College London, UK

Wuhan University, China

Harvard Medical School, USA

204

216

217

218

220

238

Huazhong University of Science & Technology, 339 China

University of California System, USA

Harvard University, USA

University of London, UK

Institutions

Table 20.5 Distribution of COVID-19 publications by the top 10 countries, journal, institutionsa

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.5

2.1

2.1

2.5

3.0

%

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 319

USA

UK

Italy

Canada

Hong Kong

Germany

France

Switzerland

Australia South Korea

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

26 26

31

33

34

35

44

47

80

160

348

All

2.8 2.8

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.8

5.1

8.7

17.3

37.3

%

H, et al. [9]

China

1.

a Dehghanbanadaki

Country

Rank

Nature

Journal of Infection, New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)

Journal of Korean Medical Science, Zhongguo dangdai erke zazhi (Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics)

British Medical Journal (BMJ), Emerging Microbes and Infections, Intensive Care Medicine

Travel Medicine And Infectious Disease

Lancet Infectious Diseases

Journal of The American Medical Association (JAMA)

Euro Surveillance Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles European Communicable Disease Bulletin

Journal of Medical Virology

BMJ Clinical Research Ed Lancet

Journal

11

12 12

13 13

14 14 14

15

20

21

26

47

74 74

All

1.2

1.3 1.3

1.4 1.4

1.5 1.5 1.5

1.6

2.2

2.3

2.8

5.1

8.0 8.0

%

All

22 22

23

25

28

Zhejiang University, China University of Toronto, Canada

Zhejiang University School of Medicine, China Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, China

Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong University of Hong Kong Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, Hong Kong Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, China

Fudan University, China

15 15

16 16

17 17 17

19

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 20 UK

Capital Medical University, China School of Medicine

Wuhan University, China

Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

Tongji Medical College, China

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 30 Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 30 China

Institutions

Table 20.6 Distribution of COVID-19 publications by the top 10 countries, journals and institutionsa

1.6 1.6

1.7 1.7

1.8 1.8 1.8

2.1

2.2

2.4 2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

3.3 3.3

%

320 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

China

Italy

UK

India

France

Canada

Germany

Spain

Australia

S.H., Al-Jabi, S.W. [10]

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

a Zyoud,

676

680

742

790

881

1,104

1,981

2,314

3,310

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.1

4.6

5.8

10.4

12.2

17.4

23.5

%

2.

4,479

USA

1.

All

Country

Rank

Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology

International Journal of Infectious Diseases

Lancet Infectious Diseases

Medical Hypotheses

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Journal of Infection

Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)

Lancet

Journal of Medical Virology

British Medical Journal (BMJ)

Journal

122

125

126

129

131

135

137

215

311

522

All

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.1

1.6

2.7

%

237

258

272

331

415

422

All

University of Oxford, UK

University of Toronto, Canada

IRCCS Foundation Rome, Italy

191

210

210

Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Italy 232

University College London, UK

Università degli Studi di Milano, Italy

Inserm (French National Institute of Health and Medical Research), France

Harvard Medical School. USA

Tongji Medical College, China

Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China

Institutions

Table 20.7 Distribution of COVID-19 publications by the top 10 countries, journals and institutionsa

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.7

2.2

2.2

%

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 321

373

England

Netherlands

Canada

Japan

South Korea

France

Taiwan

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

a Tao

Z., et al. [11]

Germany

3.

10.

379

China

2.

392

465

498

551

573

642

2,402

3,452

USA

1.

All

Country

Rank

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.8

5.1

5.6

5.9

6.6

24.6

35.4

%

Veterinary Microbiology

Journal of Virological Methods

Archives of Virology

Viruses-Basel

Virus Research

Journal of General Virology

Emerging Infectious Diseases

PLoS One

Virology

Journal of Virology

Journal

143

148

155

166

192

194

204

238

296

885

All

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.4

3.0

9.1

%

Seoul National University, South Korea

NIAID, USA

Vanderbilt University, USA

Universiteit Utrecht, Netherlands

Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, USA

University of Iowa, USA

University of North Carolina, USA

Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Institutions

Table 20.8 Distribution of COVID-19 publications by the top 10 countries, journals and institutionsa All

197

221

241

259

269

292

340

411

469

959

%

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.8

3.0

3.5

4.2

4.8

9.8

322 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

323

have noticed, mathematicians act similarly. Using a limited arsenal of well-known mathematical models of the spread of epidemics, the most popular of which is the SIR-model, or proposing new models, they make calculations for Wuhan, then for Northern Italy, then for Spain, etc. This is how not only specialists in mathematical modeling work on “conveyor belt”, and as we showed above with reference to bibliometrics, but also all the others, otherwise, where would so many articles come from (Table 20.1)? It should be noted that in the latest experiment in Google Scholar, in which 958 responses were received, not all responses are relevant, that is, in a relatively small percentage of publications, the keywords “coronavirus” and “bibliometric analysis” are found in the titles of articles. We observed the same situation when testing the keywords: “COVID-19” and “bibliometric analysis” (1,790 responses) on 01.05.2020; “Coronavirus” and “scientometric analysis” (168 responses); “COVID-19” and “scientometric analysis” (285 responses). Since human coronavirus (HCoVs) was first observed in the 1960s, bibliometric and scientometric analyses often use more extensive years of literature coverage, for example, 1968−2020, 1970−2020, 2000−2020 and 2003−2020. The scientometric databases used here, as shown above, cover most often WoS, Scopus, PubMed, less often the new Dimensions search tool, and almost never Google Scholar. At the same time, we have shown above that Dimensions and Google Scholar search tools give similar results when searching for publications on coronavirus topics. This circumstance, and most importantly the maximum coverage of publications of this search engine and the convenience of using it determined its choice in our study. In the process of a detailed visual review of responses to queries for the terms “COVID-19” and “Coronavirus” at the Advanced Search of Google Scholar, we identified 21 online platforms that produce publications on this topic. These are platforms for commercial publishers of periodicals, major journals, preprint archives, scientific networks and servers of international and national health organizations. They are briefly described in Appendix 1. This search with 15-day step (from November 1 to December 15 2020) revealed documents with these terms. The search was carried out both throughout the document and by its title. The terms “COVID-19” and “Coronavirus” were entered in the line ‘with exact phrase”, the name of the online platform was entered in the line “Return articles published in”, the time interval was taken in the interval: 2020−2020. In these experiments, the most cited articles with citations above 1,000 for Elsevier journals and with citations above 500 for publications of other online platforms were carefully visually identified. The results of the experiments are presented in Table 20.9. It ranked online platforms by the number of documents found as of November 1 2020 when searching the entire document for the term “COVID-19.” In general, the dynamics of the growth of documents is positive, but failures in the work of the Google Scholar search engine occurred in four cases when searching on platforms: Nature, SAGE, arXiv and National Acad Sciences for publications with the term “COVID-19”, when a decline was noticed, and then again the growth of documents (Table 20.9). Google Scholar gives the most reliable data when searching by the title of the document. Looking at the top ten largest online platforms, we can

Online platform

Elsevier

Nature

Springer

Wiley Online Library

Oxford Academic

medRxiv

Emerald

SAGE (journals.sagepub)

British Medical Journal (BMJ)

arXiv

JAMA Network

Cell (in Elsevier)

National Acad Sciences

№

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

889

1,090

1,280

5,060

5,830

7,130

7,300

11,000

14,900

16,600

16,500

18,100

37,900

1-Nov

963

1,290

1,380

5,700

6,720

7,920

7,740

11,500

16,900

17,600

18,900

17,900

41,500

15-Nov

926

1,330

1,520

5,730

8,790

8,880

8,950

11,900

18,500

18,900

20,400

11,700

43,500

1-Dec

Search on anywhere in the article

COVID-19

1,210

1,400

1,630

6,380

10,200

9,350

9,200

13,700

19,800

20,900

22,600

12,400

46,300

15-Dec

60

315

680

1,850

2,290

2,200

790

6,890

1,660

8,990

11,000

1,890

18,100

1-Nov

64

443

719

1,930

2,500

2,600

833

7,420

1,730

11,000

11,900

1,960

18,400

15-Nov

Number of articles

70

462

769

1,830

2,960

3,980

906

8,200

1,930

12,400

14,000

2,050

20,700

1-Dec

Search in the title of the article

74

475

802

1,890

3,430

3,520

975

8,870

2,130

15,000

15,600

2,120

24,100

15-Dec

2

3

16

0

0

1

0

0

0

7

9

7

17

1-Nov

2

3

18

0

2

1

0

0

0

7

9

7

18

15-Nov

2

3

20

0

3

1

0

0

0

7

9

9

20

1-Dec

(continued)

2

5

20

0

3

2

0

0

0

9

10

10

20

15-Dec

With citations more 500 (Elseviermore 1000)

Table 20.9 Testing terms “COVID-19” and “Coronavirus” in Advanced Search of Google Scholar in the line: with the exact phrase

324 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

PLoS (journal.plos)

BioMedCentral (BMC)

NEJM Group

CDC (China CDC weekly)

WHO (who.int)

NIH (nih.gov)

ResearchGate

NBER

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Total

Online platform

№

Table 20.9 (continued)

144,993

37

47

59

81

137

216

336

501

1-Nov

157,866

60

49

109

277

140

228

388

602

15-Nov

163,198

113

54

116

330

148

236

486

689

1-Dec

Search on anywhere in the article

COVID-19

177,506

152

57

126

351

153

240

550

807

15-Dec

57,505

13

30

52

71

85

104

165

270

1-Nov

62,588

25

31

84

234

88

114

193

320

15-Nov

Number of articles

71,536

47

37

89

283

110

118

229

366

1-Dec

Search in the title of the article

80,407

59

39

95

301

114

121

261

431

15-Dec

62

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1-Nov

68

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

15-Nov

75

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1-Dec

(continued)

82

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

15-Dec

With citations more 500 (Elseviermore 1000)

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 325

Online platform

Elsevier

Nature

Springer

Wiley Online Library

Oxford Academic

medRxiv

Emerald

SAGE (journals.sagepub)

British Medical Journal (BMJ)

arXiv

JAMA Network

Cell (in Elsevier)

National Acad Sciences

PLoS (journal.plos)

№

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Table 20.9 (continued)

495

155

713

6,070

2,410

2,690

4,430

856

9,430

3,640

13,300

15,400

3,300

26,900

1-Nov

590

167

778

7,550

2,550

3,170

5,040

928

10,300

4,690

14,300

17,800

3,680

28,100

15-Nov

660

180

847

7,660

2,760

3,780

6,210

1,060

10,700

6,600

18,000

19,200

4,430

37,400

1-Dec

Search on anywhere in the article

Coronavirus

758

189

909

8,230

2,960

4,820

6,930

1,170

11,300

6,630

18,200

19,800

4,920

39,200

15-Dec

45

9

55

284

144

120

257

54

530

299

681

668

487

2,280

1-Nov

50

10

58

287

149

121

275

56

537

329

711

686

495

2,360

15-Nov

Number of articles

54

10

61

304

152

124

289

61

551

377

742

717

508

2,500

1-Dec

Search in the title of the article

60

10

67

311

154

134

302

63

566

396

769

744

515

2,760

15-Dec

0

0

3

12

0

2

1

0

1

1

9

8

4

10

1-Nov

0

0

4

12

0

2

1

0

1

2

9

8

5

10

15-Nov

0

0

4

13

0

3

1

0

1

2

9

9

5

12

1-Dec

(continued)

0

0

4

14

0

3

2

0

1

2

9

10

6

12

15-Dec

With citations more 500 (Elseviermore 1000)

326 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

BioMedCentral (BMC)

NEJM Group

CDC (China CDC weekly)

WHO (who.int)

NIH (nih.gov)

ResearchGate

NBER

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Total

Online platform

№

Table 20.9 (continued)

90,625

21

41

55

72

170

191

286

1-Nov

100,731

35

39

92

221

179

199

323

15-Nov

120,707

69

39

99

237

183

206

387

1-Dec

Search on anywhere in the article

Coronavirus

127,333

91

39

107

246

188

210

436

15-Dec

6,090

4

15

11

54

63

7

23

1-Nov

6,388

5

14

15

130

68

7

25

15-Nov

Number of articles

6,737

8

14

17

139

72

7

30

1-Dec

Search in the title of the article

7,150

8

14

17

145

72

7

36

15-Dec

51

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1-Nov

54

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

15-Nov

59

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1-Dec

63

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

15-Dec

With citations more 500 (Elseviermore 1000)

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 327

328

V. M. Moskovkin et al.

see that the strongest growth in publications over a one and a half month interval occurred for the platform Wiley Online Library and SAGE when searching for the term “COVID-19”. Table 20.9 clearly identifies the online platforms with the highest number of highly cited articles. For both terms, these are the Elsevier, Nature, Springer, Wiley Online Library and JAMA Network platforms, with the latter platform with a small number of journals being equal to the Elsevier platform in terms of the number of highly cited articles. The generalized quantitative characteristics of the above highly cited articles were determined on November 1 and December 15 2020, the data for the last moment of time are given in Table 20.10. From it we see that across all online platforms the number of highly cited articles varied from 1 to 20, the number of authors of these articles—from 1 up to 51, the number of affiliated countries—from 1 to 11, the number of affiliated institutions—from 1 to 38, the number of articles with international co-authorship—from 0 to 6. The metrics for highly cited articles presented in Table 20.10 are summarized in Table 20.11. In this table, platform citations, with the exception of medRxiv, correspond to the standard citations for Scopus and Web of Science databases depending on the journals included in those databases. On journal publisher online platforms data on altmetrics are presented. Articles in the journal Cell and Elsevier journals provide quantitative data on Shares, Likes & Comments and Tweets as such altmetrics, united in the Social Media group. Tweets and Likes data is available on medRxiv preprints, National Acad Sciences uses the term Online Impact for altmetrics, articles in Wiley Online Library and NEJM are tagged “metrics”, which gives data on standard citation and altemetrics. The rest of the online platforms containing Scopus & WoS journals show altmetrics, which is a comprehensive indicator. In most cases, “Altmetric”, “Metrics” include data on tweets, news outlets, Mendeley, blogs, Video uploaders, Redditors, Wikipedia page, Facebook pages, etc. Therefore, the following approach was used to systematize the data when reflecting values in the Altmetric indicator of Table 20.11. It consisted in fixing data on “Altmetric” or “Metrics” if they were available on the platform, and if they were not available, summarized data on Social Media was taken. It is interesting that a number of articles with an average citation rate in our sample generated a very high level of interest among the general public. Thus, the article by A. Grifoni et al. (2020) “Targets of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in humans with COVID-19 disease and unexposed individuals” (N 81 in Appendix 2) with low citation rates in Google Scholar (786 citations) and on the publisher’s platform (355 citations) had such Social Media scores on this platform: Shares, Likes & Comments—21,621 and Tweets—22,182. Union of sets of high-cited article titles from a search for the terms “COVID19” and “Coronavirus” by article title led us to 125 different articles (we united all the different articles from a set of 82 and 63 articles (Table 20.10)). They are all numbered in descending order by Google Scholar Citations as of December 15 2020 and are listed in Appendix 2.

6

Coronavirus

Coronavirus

9

Coronavirus

2

Coronavirus

COVID-19

2

1

Coronavirus

SAGE

−

COVID-19

medRxiv

−

COVID-19

Oxford

9

COVID-19

Wiley Online Library

10

10

COVID-19

Springer

10

COVID-19

Nature

20

12

Coronavirus

Number of articles

COVID-19

Elsevier

Online platform

3

37

−

2

−

2

1

1

1

2

4

2

2

46

4

37

−

12

−

12

25

46

36

29

51

35

4

37

−

7

−

6

8

16

13

14

17

15

12

1

1

−

1

−

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

3

1

−

2

−

1

5

10

11

6

7

7

4

Max

2

1

−

2

−

1

2

3

3

2

2

2

2

Ave

Min

Ave

Min

Max

Number of affiliated countries

Number of authors

2

24

−

3

−

1

1

1

1

2

2

3

1

Min

4

24

−

4

−

5

21

33

33

13

38

16

26

Max

3

24

−

4

−

3

5

8

8

5

8

8

6

Ave

Number of affiliated institutions

1

0

−

1

−

0

2

6

5

4

3

5

6

(continued)

Number of articles with international co-authorship

Table 20.10 Generalized quantitative characteristics of highly cited articles with the terms “COVID-19” and “Coronavirus” in their titles as of 15.12.2020

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 329

3

Coronavirus

4

Coronavirus

24

− −

1

−

COVID-19

Coronavirus

NEJM

13 −

2

−

Coronavirus

6

3

2

1

14

46

−

26

−

48

20

28

28

27

46

−

26

−

31

15

15

11

7

27

38

4

Ave

−

−

−

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

−

1

−

1

3

3

2

2

1

7

3

Max

−

1

−

1

2

2

1

1

1

3

2

Ave

Min

4

Max

Min 3

Number of affiliated countries

Number of authors

COVID-19

National Academy of Sciences

5

COVID-19

Cell

20

14

COVID-19

JAMA

3

Coronavirus

2

Number of articles

COVID-19

British Medical Journal

Coronavirus

Online platform

Table 20.10 (continued)

−

−

−

4

2

2

1

1

4

3

2

Min

−

23

−

8

8

9

21

5

8

34

4

Max

−

23

−

6

4

6

4

3

5

19

3

Ave

Number of affiliated institutions

−

0

−

0

1

2

2

2

0

1

1

Number of articles with international co-authorship

330 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

331

Table 20.11 Citation metrics of highly cited articles with the terms “COVID-19” and “Coronavirus” in their titles as of 12.15.2020 Online platform

Google scholar citations

Platform citations

Altmetric

Min

Max

Ave

Min

Min

COVID-19

1,081

10,824

2,469

Coronavirus

1,049

19,786

COVID-19

510

Coronavirus

Max

Ave

Max

Ave

434

5,250

1,199

308

108,614

29,756

4,536

465

9,807

2,188

308

94,214

15,036

1,646

888

222

717

402

233

15,857

3,316

513

7,893

2,478

250

3,848

1,362

339

6,047

2,146

COVID-19

515

2,253

1,148

227

940

455

37

1,123

447

Coronavirus

515

1,907

1,048

227

590

408

37

572

267

Elsevier

Nature

Springer

Wiley Online Library COVID-19

501

1,117

718

302

548

412

99

3,597

960

Coronavirus

635

2,297

995

303

1,562

636

99

1,764

809

187

201

194

2,973

2,973

Oxford COVID-19 Coronavirus

−

−

570

− 921

746

−

−

211

257

− 234

medRxiv COVID-19 Coronavirus

− 894

−

−

−

−

894

− 894

6,472

6,472

6,472

2,973

SAGE COVID-19

537

829

683

310

348

329

386

386

386

Coronavirus

537

829

683

310

348

329

386

386

386

British Medical Journal COVID-19

529

621

581

373

621

529

183

1,975

1,332

Coronavirus

529

1,668

1,155

167

736

1,668

183

420

759

JAMA COVID-19

535

8,012

1,487

0

2,518

512

788

14,445

4,490

Coronavirus

501

11,247

2,467

0

4,772

914

367

11,578

3,498

Cell COVID-19

518

786

678

282

396

339

393

43,803

10,119

Coronavirus

565

3,685

1,496

300

1,797

728

339

43,803

13,027 (continued)

332

V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Table 20.11 (continued) Online platform

Google scholar citations

Platform citations

Altmetric

Min

Min

Min

Max

Ave

Max

Ave

Max

Ave

National Academy of Sciences COVID-19 Coronavirus

979 −

1,226 −

1,103 −

662 −

897 −

780 −

708 −

5,069 −

2,889 −

NEJM COVID-19 Coronavirus

965 −

965 −

965 −

379 −

379 −

379 −

9,717 –

9,717 −

9,717 −

The characteristics of these numbered articles in the context of the number of authors, affiliated institutions, member countries and Google Scholar Citations are given in Appendix 3. From this Appendix, we determine the number of member countries in the considered highly cited articles; it is equal to 31. Redistributing these articles by country, we come to Appendix 4. It ranked countries in descending order of the total number of articles. We see a noticeable leadership of China in terms of the number of articles and their citation. Based on Appendix 4, we get a more compact table, which clearly shows the distribution of the number of articles by countries without international co-authorship (89 articles) and with international co-authorship (36 articles) (Table 20.12). In this table, we observe the 6 largest international collaborations with the number of countries greater than or equal to five. Five of them include the USA and China. Such collaborations, according to Table 20.10, may include more than 30 different institutions. We cannot estimate the impact of international collaborations on citation based on Table 20.12 data, since for this you need to know the lifetime of articles. To study international collaborations, we have developed a symmetric square matrix of their features (Table 20.13), on the diagonal of which are the numbers of articles with international participation for each country (they are taken from Appendix 4), and the plus sign marks the countries with which articles with international participation are published. The matrix in the upper zone (11 countries from China to Saudi Arabia) is sufficiently dense, and in the middle and lower zone it is sparse. It follows from it that China, the USA and the UK are leading in the number of articles in international collaborations. On the basis of the data gathered, the average values of the number of countries of participants and authors per article were calculated. In the first case, this value was 1.66 (approximately 2 countries), in the second—12.72 (about 13 authors). Comparing the list of the first ten most cited articles from Appendix 2 with the data on the ranked lists of such articles from other studies, we showed that in the top ten articles of works [7, 9, 10] six articles coincided with our list, in the work of K. Kousha & M. Thelwall [1] and four articles coincided, in the work of S.B. Patil [6] three articles coincided.

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

333

Table 20.12 Distribution of articles by country with and without international co-authorship as of 15.12.2020 Country China UK France

Number of articles

Average citations google scholar citations

52

2,465

7

1,584

2

1,962

15

1,123

Taiwan

1

2,284

Italy

5

1,207

Netherlands

1

1,912

Singapore

2

1,129

India

1

1,211

Sweden

1

825

Australia

1

510

Spain

1

501

Total

89

1,973

China, Australia

3

3,421

China, USA, UK

2

2,108

China, USA

7

1,191

USA

China, Singapore

1

1,907

USA, Switzerland, Sweden

1

1,753

UK, Netherlands

1

1,656

Switzerland, Greece

1

1,577

China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain

1

1,326

China, USA, UK, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S.Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

1

1,315

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

1

1,276

China, Canada

1

1,182

China, Japan

1

1,117

USA, UK, Australia, Sweden

1

1,107

Belgium, France, Italy

1

962

China, USA, Netherlands

1

935

USA, UK

1

921

China, Belgium

1

862

China, USA, UK, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

1

823 (continued)

334

V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Table 20.12 (continued) Country

Number of articles

Average citations google scholar citations

China, USA, UK, Italy, Japan

1

UK, Canada

1

803 707

UK, Germany, Italy

1

679

China, USA, Italy

1

633

Taiwan, USA

1

606

USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

1

593

Brazil, Italy, Paraguay

1

537

Brazil, Spain

1

530

Germany, Greece, Romania

1

518

36

1,309

125

1,782

Total Summary

In conclusion of this study, we conducted a content analysis of our sample of articles, selecting 31 research topics (Table 20.14). This table shows the article numbers from Appendix 2 corresponding to these topics. From it we see a large number of articles covering several topics. To quantify this multi-topic character, you can enter a multi-topic factor equal to the number of all articles listed in Table 20.14 divided by 125, it will be equal to: 233/125 = 1.864. Most often, in the articles under consideration, attention is paid to the geographical aspect of the study (31 articles), in the second place is the clinical picture of the disease (21 articles), in the third place is the issue of therapy (19 articles). It is important to note that the analysis and distribution of the 125 most cited articles according to the criteria of their belonging to a particular field of knowledge was a very difficult task. The main difficulty is associated with the presence among these articles not only of those that could conventionally be called “mono-topical”, but also the articles that can be called “bi-topical” and even “poly-topical”. At the same time, the prevalence of a particular coronavirus topic in an article is not always unambiguous, since many articles contain subtopics, as a rule, already stated in the title of the article, and sufficiently manifest and important to be the basis for classifying a particular article in two or even several groups at the same time. It goes without saying that the assignment to a particular group is based not only on the title of the article or its abstract, but on the entire text. (Although, of course, no one doubts the correspondence between the content of the article, its abstract and the main text.) But even this approach, unfortunately, does not guarantee the absolute indisputability of assigning an article to one or another group (or groups). At the same time, the determination of the belonging of the overwhelming majority of articles to one or another of the groups we have singled out seems to us quite substantiated.

Greece

+

+

Switzerland

+

Spain

+

+

+

Japan

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

20

+

USA

Sweden

+

+

+

Belgium

Saudi Arabia

+

Canada

Brazil

+

Germany

+

Italy

+

+

UK

+

+

USA

Australia

23

China

Netherlands

China

Country

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

12

+

+

UK

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

7

+

+

+

Italy

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

6

+

+

+

+

Netherlands

+

+

+

+

6

+

+

+

+

+

Australia

+

+

+

+

5

+

+

+

+

+

Germany

+

+

4

+

+

+

+

+

+

Canada

3

+

+

+

+

+

+

Belgium

+

3

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Brazil

2

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Saudi Arabia

Table 20.13 Matrix of affiliated countries with international co-authorship on coronavirus topics as of 15.12.2020a

2

+

+

+

+

Japan

2

+

+

+

+

+

Spain

+

2

+

+

+

Sweden

+

2

+

+

(continued)

Switzerland

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 335

India

+

+

UAE

+

Taiwan

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Germany

+

+

+

Republic of Congo

+

+

+

+

Australia

Russia

+

Poland

+

+

+

+

+

Netherlands

Romania

+

+

Oman

+

Ireland

+

Austria

Singapore

+

+

+

Paraguay

+

+

Italy

S. Korea

+

UK

+

+

Denmark

USA

France

China

Country

Table 20.13 (continued)

+

+

+

+

Canada

+

+

+

Belgium

+

+

Brazil

+

+

+

+

+

Saudi Arabia

Japan

+

Spain

Sweden

(continued)

Switzerland

336 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

+

+

+

Italy

Netherlands

Australia

Switzerland +

Sweden

Spain

Japan

Saudi Arabia

Brazil

Belgium

Canada

+

+

+

UK

+

+

Germany

+

USA

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Greece Denmark France S.

China

Country

Table 20.13 (continued)

Korea

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+ +

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

(continued)

Paraguay Singapore Austria Ireland Oman Poland Republic Romania Russia Taiwan UAE India of Congo

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 337

+

1

a Note

India

UAE

1

+

+

1 1

The numbers indicate the total number of articles with international participation included in the sample

Taiwan

Russia

Romania

Republic of Congo

Poland

Oman

+

1

Ireland

+

1

1

+

1

+

1 1 1

+

+

0

Paraguay Singapore Austria Ireland Oman Poland Republic Romania Russia Taiwan UAE India of Congo

1

+

+

1

+

Korea

Austria

Singapore

Paraguay

S. Korea

France

1

2

Greece

Denmark

Greece Denmark France S.

Country

Table 20.13 (continued)

338 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

339

Table 20.14 Quantitative distribution of the 125 most cited articles by research topic №

Research topic

Article numbers

Number of articles

%

1

Etiology (origin)

6, 27, 55, 70, 89

5

6.25

2

Pathogenesis

1

0.8

3

Infectiousness, transmission, dynamics of spread (including with asymptomatic course)

8, 18, 19, 27, 35, 49, 52, 53, 55, 88, 111

11

8.8

4

Detection, testing, diagnosis, monitoring

17, 54, 62, 84, 101, 104, 105, 108

8

6.4

5

Risk factors, comorbidity

3, 13, 15, 20, 31, 38, 39, 40, 75, 96, 124

11

8.8

6

Mortality

3, 13, 22, 25, 39, 85, 116

7

5.6

7

Clinical picture

1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 15, 19, 37, 47, 64, 68, 70, 72, 74, 85, 88, 98, 103, 118, 120

21

16.8

8

Therapy

14, 27, 42, 43, 45, 48, 50, 54, 63, 64, 65, 73, 91, 94, 95, 110, 113, 117, 125

19

15.2

9

Comparisons, conclusions

5, 21, 44

3

2.4

10

Complications, damage to various body systems

24, 26, 30, 41, 57, 79, 86, 90, 118, 123

10

8

11

Virology

7, 35, 44, 53, 55, 69, 118, 121 8

6.4

12

Immunology

10, 64, 66, 81, 83, 87, 97, 113, 114, 119, 121, 122

12

9.6

13

Mathematical modeling, quantitative assessments

37, 52, 61, 104

4

3.2

14

Psychological impact, 32, 58, 59,78, 115 psychological and psychiatric aspects

5

4

15

Social aspects

16, 46, 71, 78, 99, 106, 107

7

5.6

16

Reviews

19, 29, 48, 51, 70, 77, 82, 93, 104, 120

10

8

17

Age, gender, racial, family and ethnic aspects

3, 8, 43, 45, 77, 92, 100, 103, 125

9

7.2

18

Pharmaceuticals

12, 14, 43, 48, 50, 73, 95, 110, 116, 117

10

8

19

Vaccination

121

1

0.8

20

Epidemiology

4,7,16, 21, 23, 29, 34, 36, 46, 85, 106, 118

12

9.6

21

Laboratory data

28, 103, 112

3

2.4

22

Periodization

23

61

1

0.8 (continued)

340

V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Table 20.14 (continued) №

Research topic

Article numbers

23

Geographic aspect

2, 5, 11,13, 15, 22, 24, 25, 34, 31 36, 39, 46, 47, 53, 61, 63, 69, 72, 74, 82, 88, 93, 99, 100, 101, 102, 106, 112, 116, 123, 125

24.8

24

Cellular level

30, 75, 81, 87, 114, 119, 121

7

5.6

25

Control measures and prevention

4, 60, 70, 71 85

5

4

26

Statistical data

1

0.8

27

Forecasting

15, 20, 22, 63, 104, 113,

6

4.8

28

Case reports

118, 122

2

1.6

29

Causes

70

1

0.8

30

Recommendations and guidelines

80

1

0.8

31

Impact on the branches of medicine

76

1

0.8

61

Number of articles

%

As for singling out the relevant groups, its criteria are a synthesis of the content analysis of the articles in question and similar groups that exist on some platforms, for example, ResearchGate. We are aware that the boundaries between some of the groups we propose may seem elusive. Thus, for example, a case report is hardly possible without describing the clinical picture, and the “cellular level” is relevant for many other groups identified by us.

Conclusions In this chapter, we endeavored to explain the phenomenon of the coronavirus publication race, analyzed a number of typical bibliometric articles, which are structured according to the standard principle—presenting ranked lists of publications distributed by countries, journals and institutions, as well as lists of the most cited articles. With this analysis, we showed that there are no works that use Google Scholar for these purposes. Based on this search engine, 21 online platforms were identified, on which the largest number of articles on coronavirus topics were published, of which two samples were identified as of December 15, 2020 (82 articles with the term “COVID-19” in article titles and 63 articles with the term “Coronavirus” in article titles) articles with over 1,000 citations in Elsevier journals and over 500 times on other online platforms. These articles have been categorized by authors, countries and institutions. These samples of articles were reduced to a single sample with 125 articles that did not overlap in two samples, on the basis of which a detailed analysis of the structures

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of international co-authorship with the identification of 31 countries, the authors of which participated in international collaborations, was made. For this analysis, a square symmetric matrix of international co-authorship was developed. A content analysis of highly cited publications was carried out, revealing overlapping topics, for which the multi-topic factor proposed by us was calculated. In general, a quantitative analysis of the phenomenon of the coronavirus publication race showed a clear superiority in it of China, which in many respects outstripped its closest competitors—the USA and the UK.

Appendix 1. Platforms for Commercial Publishers of Periodicals, Major Journals, Preprint Archives, Scientific Networks and Servers of International and National Health Organizations. Their Brief Description 1.

Elsevier

Elsevier is a Netherlands-based information and analytics company specializing in scientific, technical, and medical content. Elsevier is a part of the RELX Group, which was known until 2015 as Reed Elsevier. It was founded as a small Dutch publisher in 1880. Elsevier publishes more than 500,000 articles annually in 2,500 journals. Its archives contain over 17 million documents and 40,000 e-books. Total yearly downloads amount to more than 1 billion. [“2018 RELX Group Annual Report” (PDF). RELX Company Reports. RELX. March 2019.] 2.

Nature

“Nature is a weekly international journal publishing the finest peer-reviewed research in all fields of science and technology on the basis of its originality, importance, interdisciplinary interest, timeliness, accessibility, elegance and surprising conclusions” [https://www.nature.com/]. The first issue of Nature was published in November 1869. More than 88, 000 papers published Nature since 1900 are each represented by doi. 3.

Springer

Springer is a leading global scientific, technical and medical portfolio, providing researchers in academia, scientific institutions and corporate R&D departments with quality content through innovative information, products and services. It was founded in 1842. Springer publishes more than 2,900 journals and 300,000 books [https:// www.springer.com/].

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Wiley Online Library

Wiley Online Library is a subscription-based library of John Wiley & Sons that launched on August 7, 2010, replacing Wiley InterScience [http://onlinelibrary.wiley. com/]. It is a collection of online resources covering life, health, and physical sciences as well as social science and the humanities. Wiley Online Library delivers access to over 4 million articles from 1,600 journals, more than 22,000 books, and hundreds of reference works, laboratory protocols, and databases from John Wiley & Sons and its imprints. 5.

Oxford/Oxford Academic

Oxford University Press (OUP) Oxford University Press (OUP) is the world’s leading university press with the widest global presence. The first book was printed in Oxford in 1478. In 1586 the University of Oxford’s right to print books was recognized in a decree from the Star Chamber. Today OUP has offices in 50 countries, and is the largest university press in the world. It now publishes over 60 fully Open Access journals, alongside a number of Open Access monographs, and offer an Open Access publishing option on almost all of its journals [https://global.oup.com/academic/]. 6.

medrxiv

medRxiv … is a free online archive and distribution server for complete but unpublished manuscripts (preprints) in the medical, clinical, and related health sciences [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/about-medrxiv].Launched June 2019. As of January 17, 2021, it contains 1557 preprints. 7.

Emerald -

Emerald Group Publishing/Emerald Publishing Limited Emerald Publishing is one of the world’s leading digital first publishers, commissioning, curating and showcasing research that can make a real difference. Emerald— Emerald Publishing Limited publishes social science research that tackles key societal challenges related to technology, business and people. It was founded in the United Kingdom in 1967. Emerald Group Publishing has its headquarters in Bingley. 500 thousand researchers in over 130 countries, 30 million downloads per year, 109 million visitors worldwide. It has a portfolio of over 350 journals and 3,500 books”, its content platform Emerald Insight is home to more than 255,000 current and backfile articles across the fields of business, management, economics, engineering, computing, technology and social science [http://www.emeraldinsight.com/].

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SAGE Publishing (formerly SAGE Publications)

SAGE Publishing, formerly SAGE Publications, is an independent publishing company founded in 1965 in New York by Sara Miller McCune and now based in Newbury Park, California. It publishes more than 1,000 journals, more than 800 books a year [https://uk.sagepub.com/en-gb/eur/home]. 9.

British Medical Journal (The BMJ)

The BMJ is a weekly peer-reviewed medical trade journal, published by the trade union the British Medical Association (BMA). The BMJ has editorial freedom from the BMA. It was founded in 1840. It is one of the world’s oldest general medical journals. Originally called the British Medical Journal, the title was officially shortened to BMJ in 1988, and then changed to The BMJ in 2014. [https://www.bmj.com/ content/348/bmj.g4168. 10.

arXiv

arXiv is a free distribution service and an open-access archive for 1,823,661 scholarly articles in the fields of physics, mathematics, computer science, quantitative biology, quantitative finance, statistics, electrical engineering and systems science, and economics. Materials on this site are not peer-reviewed by arXiv. Launched August 14, 1991 [https://arxiv.org/]. 11.

The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)

JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association is a peer-reviewed medical journal published 48 times a year by the American Medical Association. It publishes original research, reviews, and editorials covering all aspects of biomedicine. The journal was established in 1883 with Nathan Smith Davis as the founding editor. [https://www.ama-assn.org/about/ama-history/ama-history]. JAMA is the most widely circulated general medical journal in the world, with more than 277,000 recipients of the print journal, more than 1.6 million recipients of electronic tables of contents and alerts, and over 27 million annual visits to the journal’s website. JAMA’s reach includes a growing social media presence (more than 815,000 followers on Twitter and Facebook) and vast international news media exposure [https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/for-authors]. 12.

Cell

Cell is a peer-reviewed scientific journal publishing research papers across a broad range of disciplines within the life sciences. Cell was established in 1974 by Benjamin Lewin. It is published bimonthly by Cell Press, which is an imprint of Elsevier [https:// www.cell.com/cell/home].

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National Acad Sciences PNAS

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (abbreviated PNAS or PNAS USA) is a peer-reviewed multidisciplinary scientific journal. It is the official journal of the National Academy of Sciences. The journal has been published since 1915. It publishes original research, scientific reviews, commentaries, and letters [https://www.pnas.org/]. 14.

PLoS

PLOS One (stylized PLOS ONE, and formerly PLoS ONE) is a peer-reviewed open access scientific journal. It has been published by the Public Library of Science (PLOS) since 2006. In 2016 publication output in PLOS ONE was 22,054 research papers. [https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2017/01/05/plos-oneoutput-drops-again-in-2016/] 15.

BMC/BioMedCentral

BMC Medicine is a peer-reviewed electronic-only medical journal. It has been published since 2003 by BioMed Central which is part of Springer Nature. It is described as “the flagship medical journal of the BMC series. An open access, open peer-reviewed general medical journal, BMC Medicine publishes outstanding and influential research in all areas of clinical practice, translational medicine, medical and health advances, public health, global health, policy, and general topics of interest to the biomedical and sociomedical professional communities. BMC has an evolving portfolio of some 300 peer-reviewed journals, sharing discoveries from research communities in science, technology, engineering and medicine [https://www.biomed central.com/about]. 16.

The New England Journal of Medicine(NEJM), NEJM Group

The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) is recognized as the world’s leading medical journal and website. Published continuously for over 200 years, NEJM delivers high-quality, peer-reviewed research and interactive clinical content to physicians, educators, researchers, and the global medical community. [https://www.nejm. org/about-nejm/about-nejm]. The New England Journal of Medicine is a publication of NEJM Group—Owned & Published by the Massachusetts Medical Society. Today, NEJM is the most widely read, cited, and influential general medical periodical in the world. More than 600,000 people from nearly every country read NEJM in print and online each week. Each year, NEJM receives more than 16,000 research and other submissions for consideration for publication. About 5% of original research submissions achieve publication by NEJM; more than half originate from outside the U.S [https://www.nejm.org/about-nejm/about-nejm].

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The World Health Organization (WHO)

The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for international public health. WHO began when our Constitution came into force on 7 April 1948.WHO are now more than 7000 people from more than 150 countries working in 150 country offices, in 6 regional offices and at our headquarters in Geneva. [https://www.who.int/about]. 18.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH)

The National Institutes of Health (NIH), a part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, is the nation’s medical research agency—making important discoveries that improve health and save lives. The National Institutes of Health is made up of 27 different components called Institutes and Centers. Each has its own specific research agenda, often focusing on particular diseases or body systems. Headquarters for the Office of the Director and the Institutes and Centers are located in Bethesda, Maryland, USA.The NIH traces its roots to 1887, when a one-room laboratory was created within the Marine Hospital Service (MHS), predecessor agency to the U.S. Public Health Service (PHS). The MHS had been established in 1798 to provide for the medical care of merchant seamen [https://www.nih.gov/]. 19.

ResearchGate

ResearchGate is a European commercial social networking site for scientists and researchers. It was founded in 2008 by the physicians Dr. Ijad Madisch and Dr. Sören Hofmayer along with computer specialist Horst Fickenscher. ResearchGate has more than 19 million members and more than 130 million publications [https:// researchgate.net/press]. 20.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, nonpartisan organization that facilitates cutting-edge investigation and analysis of major economic issues. It disseminates research findings to academics, public and private-sector decision-makers, and the public by posting more than 1,200 working papers and convening more than 120 scholarly conferences, each year. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) was founded in 1920, largely in response to heated Progressive-era controversies over income distribution. The number of affiliated researchers, just over 1,000 in 2008, was more than 1,500 in 2020 [https://www. nber.org/].

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China CDC Weekly (CCDC Weekly)

China CDC Weekly (CCDC Weekly) serves as a platform for the China CDC. CCDC Weekly publishes authoritative professional information on national population health, disease and risk factor monitoring, investigation data and important public health event investigation reports. China CDC will use the CCDC Weekly to express views, countermeasures, and suggestions regarding Chinese and global health issues and to report relevant research and surveillance data, reviews, and opinions, etc. CCDC Weekly will help guide public health and clinical practices to cement the China CDC’s professional influence. Established in November 2019 [https://pub lons.com/journal/672406/china-cdc-weekly/].

Appendix 2. Bibliographic Descriptions of Articles Ranked by Google Scholar Citations as of 12/15/2020 1.

2.

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Huang C, Wang Y, Li X et al. (2020) Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet 395(10223):497−506. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5 Wang D, Hu B, Hu C et al. (2020) Clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with 2019 novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA 323(11):1061−1069. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.1585 Zhou F, Yu T, Du R et al. (2020) Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. The Lancet 395(10229):1054−1062. https://doi.org/10.1016/S01406736(20)30566-3 Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X et al. (2020). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. The Lancet 395(10223):507−513. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(20)30211-7 Wu Z, McGoogan JM (2020) Characteristics of and important lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China: summary of a report of 72 314 cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA 323(13):1239−1242. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020. 2648 Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG et al. (2020) A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 579:270−273. https:// doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7

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Lu R, Zhao X, Li J et al. (2020) Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding. The Lancet 395(10224):565−574. https://doi.org/10.1016/S01406736(20)30251-8 Chan JFW, Yuan S, Kok KH et al. (2020) A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. The Lancet 395(10223):514−523. https:// doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30154-9 Xu Z, Shi L, Wang Y et al. (2020) Pathological findings of COVID-19 associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome. The Lancet Resp Med 8(4):420−422 Mehta P, McAuley DF, Brown M et al. (2020) COVID-19: consider cytokine storm syndromes and immunosuppression. Lancet (London, England) 395(10229):1033−1034 Wu F, Zhao S, Yu B et al. (2020) A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China. Nature 579:265−269. https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41586-020-2008-3 Wang M, Cao R, Zhang L et al. (2020) Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell Res 30:269−271. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41422-020-0282-0 Wu C, Chen X, Cai Y et al. (2020) Risk factors associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome and death in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia in Wuhan, China. JAMA Internal Med 180(7):934−943. https:// doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.0094 Gautret P, Lagier JC, Parola P et al. (2020) Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label nonrandomized clinical trial. Int J Anti Agents 56(1):105949. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949 Richardson S, Hirsch JS, Narasimhan M, et al. (2020) Presenting characteristics, comorbidities, and outcomes among 5700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the New York city area. JAMA 323(20):2052–2059. http://doi. org/10.1001/jama.2020.6775 Wang C, Horby PW, Hayden FG et al. (2020) A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern. The Lancet 395(10223):470−473. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30185-9 Dong E, Du H, Gardner L (2020) An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time. The Lancet Inf Dis 20(5):533−534. https://doi. org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30120-1 Bai Y, Yao L, Wei T et al. (2020) Presumed asymptomatic carrier transmission of COVID-19. JAMA 323(14):1406−1407. https://doi.org/10.1001/ jama.2020.2565

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Chen H, Guo J, Wang C et al. (2020) Clinical characteristics and intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection in nine pregnant women: a retrospective review of medical records. The Lancet 395(10226):809−815. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30360-3 Tang, N., Li, D., Wang, X. et al. (2020) Abnormal coagulation parameters are associated with poor prognosis in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia. Journal of thrombosis and haemostasis, 18(4):844−847. https://doi.org/10. 1111/jth.14768 Lai CC, Shih TP, Ko WC et al. (2020) Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19): the epidemic and the challenges. Int J Anti Agents 55(3):105924. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105924 Ruan Q, Yang K, Wang W et al. (2020) Clinical predictors of mortality due to COVID-19 based on an analysis of data of 150 patients from Wuhan, China. Int Care Med 46:846−848. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00134-020-05991-x Rothan HA, Byrareddy SN (2020) The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. J Autoimmun 109:102433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaut.2020.102433 Mao L, Jin H, Wang M et al. (2020) Neurologic manifestations of hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. JAMA Neurol 77(6):683−690. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamaneurol.2020.1127 Onder G, Rezza G, Brusaferro S (2020) Case-fatality rate and characteristics of patients dying in relation to COVID-19 in Italy. JAMA 323(18):1775−1776. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4683 Klok FA, Kruip MJHA, Van der Meer NJM et al. (2020) Incidence of thrombotic complications in critically ill ICU patients with COVID-19. Thromb Res 191:145−147 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.thromres.2020.04.013 Guo YR, Cao QD, Hong ZS et al. (2020) The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak–an update on the status. Military Med Res 7:11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40779-020-002 40-0 Shi H, Han X, Jiang N et al. (2020) Radiological findings from 81 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. The Lancet Inf Dis 20(4):425−434. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30086-4 Sohrabi C, Alsafi Z, O’Neill N et al. (2020) World health organization declares global emergency: a review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). Int J Surg 76:71−76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsu.2020.02.034 Varga Z, Flammer AJ, Steiger P et al. (2020) Endothelial cell infection and endotheliitis in COVID-19. The Lancet 395(10234):1417−1418. https://doi. org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30937-5

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Tang N, Bai H, Chen X et al. (2020) Anticoagulant treatment is associated with decreased mortality in severe coronavirus disease 2019 patients with coagulopathy. J Thromb Haemost 18(5):1094−1099. https://doi.org/10.1111/ jth.14817 Lai J, Ma S, Wang Y et al. (2020) Factors associated with mental health outcomes among health care workers exposed to coronavirus disease 2019. JAMA Netw Open 3(3):e203976. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen. 2020.3976 Chen T, Wu D, Chen H et al. (2020) Clinical characteristics of 113 deceased patients with coronavirus disease 2019: retrospective study. BMJ 368. doi:https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1091 Anderson RM, Heesterbeek H, Klinkenberg D et al. (2020) How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? The Lancet 395(10228):931−934. https://doi.org/10.1016/S01406736(20)30567-5 He X, Lau EHY, Wu P et al. (2020) Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19. Nat Med 26(5):672−675. https://doi.org/10. 1038/s41591-020-0869-5 Remuzzi A, Remuzzi G (2020, April 11–17) COVID-19 and Italy: what next? The Lancet 395(10231):1225−1228 https://doi.org/10.1016/S01406736(20)30627-9 Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I et al. (2020) Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. The Lancet Inf Dis. https:// doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7 Fang L, Karakiulakis G, Roth M (2020) Are patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus at increased risk for COVID-19 infection? The Lancet Resp Med 8:e21. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2FS2213-2600(20)30235-6 Shi S, Qin M, Shen, B. et al. (2020) Association of cardiac injury with mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. JAMA Cardiol 5(7):802−810. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2020.0950 Guo T, Fan Y, Chen M et al. (2020) Cardiovascular implications of fatal outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Cardiol 5(7):811−818. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamacardio.2020.1017 Zheng YY, Ma YT, Zhang JY et al. (2020) COVID-19 and the cardiovascular system. Nat Rev Cardiol 17:259−260. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41569-0200360-5 Shen C, Wang Z, Zhao F et al. (2020) Treatment of 5 critically ill patients with COVID-19 with convalescent plasma. JAMA 323(16):1582−1589. https:// doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4783 Wang Y, Zhang D, Du G et al. (2020, May 16−22) Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial. The Lancet 395(10236):1569−1578. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(20)31022-9

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79.

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83. 84.

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90. 91.

92. 93.

94.

95.

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97.

98.

99.

100.

101.

102. 103.

104.

105.

106.

107.

108.

109.

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Appendix 3. Generalized Characteristics of Highly Cited Articles Ranked by Google Scholar Citations as of 12/15/2020

Rank

Country

1.

China

2. 3.

Number of countries

Number of authors

Number of affiliated institutions

Google scholar citations

1

29

16

19,786

China

1

14

1

11,247

China

1

19

9

10,824

4.

China

1

14

9

9,967

5.

China

1

2

1

8,012

6.

China

1

29

4

7,893

7.

China, Australia

2

35

12

5,458

8.

China

1

21

3

5,034

9.

China

1

17

7

3,842

10.

UK

1

6

8

3,818

11.

China, Australia

2

19

7

3,711

12.

China

1

10

2

3,685

13.

China

1

25

8

3,364

14.

France

1

21

10

3,289

15.

USA

1

6

3

2,873

16.

China, USA, UK

3

4

8

2,870

17.

USA

1

2

1

2,682 (continued)

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

357

(continued) Rank

Country

Number of countries

Number of authors

Number of affiliated institutions

Google scholar citations

18.

China

1

7

5

2,552

19.

China, USA

2

15

6

2,394

20.

China

1

4

2

2,297

21.

Taiwan

1

5

6

2,284

22.

China

1

5

1

2,253

23.

USA

1

2

4

2,220

24.

China, USA

2

13

2

2,122

25.

Italy

1

3

3

2,067

26.

Netherlands

1

11

6

1,912

27.

China, Singapore

2

9

5

1,907

28.

China

1

8

3

1,823

29.

UK

1

8

4

1,780

30.

USA, Switzerland

2

10

2

1,753

31.

China

1

6

2

1,727

32.

China

1

18

5

1,682

33.

China

1

21

4

1,668

34.

UK, Netherlands

2

4

4

1,656

35.

China

1

23

2

1,646

36.

Italy

1

2

2

1,631

37.

UK

1

33

3

1,618

38.

Switzerland, Greece

2

3

2

1,577

39.

China

1

13

2

1,562

40.

China

1

10

1

1,505

41.

China

1

4

3

1,480

42.

China

1

27

2

1,378

43.

China, USA, UK

3

46

26

1,346

44.

China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain

6

17

13

1,326

45.

China, USA, UK, 11 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

36

33

1,315

(continued)

358

V. M. Moskovkin et al.

(continued) Rank

Country

Number of countries

Number of authors

Number of affiliated institutions

Google scholar citations

46.

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

7

12

14

1,276

47.

China

1

14

8

1,267

48.

USA

1

4

2

1,256

49.

Singapore

1

7

2

1,244

50.

China

1

13

4

1,226

51.

India

1

1

1

1,211

52.

UK

1

22

1

1,203

53.

China

1

8

5

1,197

54.

China, Canada

2

46

6

1,182

55.

China

1

5

3

1,160

56.

USA

1

7

3

1,139

57.

China, Japan

2

3

3

1,117

58.

USA, UK, Australia, Sweden

4

25

24

1,107

59.

China, Australia

2

7

5

1,094

60.

UK

1

11

1

1,081

61.

China, USA

2

11

10

1,049

62.

USA

1

3

2

1,038

63.

Italy

1

3

4

1,023

64.

Singapore

1

5

3

1,013

65.

China

1

48

8

979

66.

China

1

51

12

971

67.

UK

1

26

23

965

68.

Belgium, France, Italy

3

33

22

962

69.

China, USA

2

16

8

948

70.

China, USA, Netherlands

3

11

5

935

71.

USA, UK

2

2

3

921

72.

China

1

37

24

894

73.

China, Belgium

2

2

2

862

74.

China

1

14

2

855

75.

China

1

8

2

846 (continued)

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

359

(continued) Rank

Country

Number of countries

Number of authors

Number of affiliated institutions

Google scholar citations

76.

China

1

3

2

829

77.

Sweden

1

1

4

825

78.

China, USA, UK, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

8

42

38

823

79.

China

1

16

3

820

80.

China, USA, UK, Italy, Japan

5

8

9

803

81.

USA

1

20

3

786

82.

China

1

3

3

784

83.

China

1

12

4

773

84.

China

1

7

2

762

85.

China

1

4

2

735

86.

China

1

5

5

735

87.

USA

1

15

8

733

88.

China, USA

2

9

2

724

89.

China

1

3

2

720

90.

Italy

1

1

1

711

91.

UK, Canada

2

2

4

707

92.

USA

1

1

1

707

93.

China

1

2

1

681

94.

UK, Germany, Italy

3

7

6

679

95.

China

1

6

1

673

96.

France

1

10

4

635

97.

China, USA, Italy

3

10

7

633

98.

UK

1

24

20

621

99.

USA

1

3

2

616

100.

China

1

7

3

612

101.

Taiwan, USA

2

3

3

606

102.

Italy

1

2

1

604

103.

China

1

6

2

600

104.

USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

7

43

34

593

(continued)

360

V. M. Moskovkin et al.

(continued) Rank

Country

Number of countries

Number of authors

Number of affiliated institutions

Google scholar citations

105.

China

1

5

1

591

106.

China, USA

2

12

5

586

107.

USA

1

2

4

583

108.

China

1

12

4

570

109.

USA

1

6

3

565

110.

USA

1

6

2

565

111.

USA

1

1

1

550

112.

China

1

8

1

545

113.

China

1

8

4

541

114.

China

1

8

4

537

115.

Brazil, Italy, Paraguay

3

4

4

537

116.

USA

1

14

4

535

117.

Brazil, Spain

2

28

21

530

118.

China

1

46

3

529

119.

Germany, Greece, Romania

3

28

9

518

120.

China

1

6

3

515

121.

China, USA

2

8

3

513

122.

Australia

1

13

7

510

123.

Spain

1

25

21

501

124.

China

1

14

4

501

125.

China

1

6

3

501

Appendix 4. Generalized Characteristics of Highly Cited Articles, Grouped by Countries of Participants as of 12/15/2020

Country

China

No.

1.

75

2,176

52

2,465

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

23

Number of

1,521

Average citations

3,421 1,276

823

633

1

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland 1 1

1

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

China, USA, Italy China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain China, Belgium

(continued)

862

1,326

2,108

3

China, Australia

1,191

Average citations

7

Number of

China, USA, UK 2

China, USA

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 361

Country

USA

No.

2.

(continued)

35

1,149

15

1,123

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

20

Number of

1,168

Average citations

Number of

1,191 1

USA, Switzerland, Sweden

(continued)

1,753

2,108

803

China, USA, UK, 1 Italy, Japan 7

1,117

1

China, Japan

China, USA

1,182

China, USA, UK 2

1,907 1

China, Canada

935

1

1,315

Average citations

China, Singapore 1

China, USA, Netherlands

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

362 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

No.

Country

(continued)

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles Number of

Average citations

1,107

921 823

1

1 1

USA, UK, Australia, Sweden China, USA, Netherlands USA, UK

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

(continued)

935

1,315

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Average citations 1,326

Number of

1

China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 363

Country

UK

No.

3.

(continued)

19

1,325

7

1,584

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

12

Number of

1,174

Average citations

1 1

Taiwan, USA USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

1,656 1,315

1

UK, Netherlands

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

(continued)

2,108

China, USA, UK 2

593

606

633

1

China, USA, Italy

Average citations 803

Number of

China, USA, UK, 1 Italy, Japan

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

364 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

No.

Country

(continued)

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles Number of

Average citations

921 823

803 707

1 China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland China, USA, UK, 1 Italy, Japan 1 1

USA, UK

UK, Canada UK, Germany, Italy

(continued)

679

1,107

1

USA, UK, Australia, Sweden

1,276

Average citations

1

Number of

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 365

Country

Italy

No.

4.

(continued)

12

1,020

5

1,207

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

7

Number of

6,205

Average citations

962 803

Belgium, France, 1 Italy China, USA, UK, 1 Italy, Japan

(continued)

1,276

1

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

593

Average citations

1,315

1

Number of

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

366 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Country

Netherlands

No.

5.

(continued)

7

1,223

1

1,912

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

6

Number of

1,108

Average citations

1

(continued)

935

1,315

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE China, USA, Netherlands

1,326

1,656 1

537 1

1

Brazil, Italy, Paraguay

633

China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain

1

China, USA, Italy

679

Average citations

UK, Netherlands

1

Number of

UK, Germany, Italy

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 367

Country

Australia

No.

6.

(continued)

7

2,003

1

510

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

6

Number of

2,251

Average citations

1,107

USA, UK, Australia, Sweden

(continued)

1,315

1

3,421

3 China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

China, Australia

593

1

USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

Average citations 823

Number of

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

368 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Country

Germany

No.

7.

(continued)

5

878

0

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

5

Number of

878

Average citations

Number of

593

518

1 1

UK, Germany, Italy USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

Germany, 1 Greece, Romania

(continued)

679

1,276

1

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

1,326

1

823

Average citations

China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 369

Country

Canada

Belgium

No.

8.

9.

(continued)

3

4

2,417

1,007

0

0

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

3

4

Number of

2,417

1,007

Average citations

(continued)

862

1

China, Belgium

707

1,182 962

1

UK, Canada

Belgium, France, 1 Italy

1

China, Canada

823

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

Average citations 1,315

Number of

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

370 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Country

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

No.

10.

11.

(continued)

2

3

1,296

630

0

0

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

2

3

Number of

1,296

630

Average citations

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

1

Brazil, Spain

(continued)

1,315

530

537

1

Brazil, Italy, Paraguay

593

Average citations

823

1

Number of

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 371

Country

Japan

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

No.

12.

13.

14.

15.

(continued)

2

3

3

2

1,665

1,228

786

960

0

1

1

0

825

501

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

2

2

2

2

Number of

1,665

1,430

928

960

Average citations

1

1

USA, Switzerland, Sweden USA, Switzerland, Sweden

1

1

Brazil, Spain USA, UK, Australia, Sweden

1

(continued)

1,753

1,753

1,107

530

1,326

803

China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain

1,117

1,276

Average citations

1

1

Number of

China, USA, UK, 1 Italy, Japan

China, Japan

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

372 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Country

Greece

Denmark

France

S. Korea

No.

16.

17.

18.

19.

(continued)

1

3

1

2

1,315

1,629

1,315

1,048

0

2

0

1,962

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

1

1

1

2

Number of

1,315

962

1,315

1,048

Average citations

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Belgium, France, 1 Italy

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S. Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

(continued)

1,315

962

1,315

518

Germany, 1 Greece, Romania

1,577

Average citations

1,577

1

Number of

1

Switzerland, Greece

Switzerland, Greece

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 373

Country

Paraguay

Singapore

Austria

Ireland

Oman

No.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

(continued)

1

1

1

3

1

1,276

593

593

1,388

537

0

0

0

2

0 1,129

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

1

1

1

1

1

Number of

1,276

593

593

1,907

537

Average citations 1

Number of

China, UK, Germany, Italy„Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

USA, UK, Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands

1

1

1

China, Singapore 1

Brazil, Italy, Paraguay

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

(continued)

1,276

593

593

1,907

537

Average citations

374 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

Country

Poland

Republic of Congo

Romania

Russia

Taiwan

No.

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

(continued)

2

1

1

1

1

1,445

1,326

518

1,276

823

1

0

0

0

0

2,284

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

1

1

1

1

1

Number of

606

1,326

518

1,276

823

Average citations

Number of

1

Taiwan, USA

China, USA, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Spain

1

1

Germany, 1 Greece, Romania

China, UK, Germany, Italy, Oman, Republic of Congo, Saudi Arabia

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Netherlands, Poland

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

(continued)

606

1,326

518

1,276

823

Average citations

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race 375

1

125

India

Total

31.

1

UAE

30.

1,782

1,211

1,315

89

1

0

1,973

1,211

Average citations

Number of

Number of

Average citations

Without the participation of other countries

Total articles

Country

No.

(continued)

36

0

1

Number of

1,309

1,315

Average citations

Number of

China, USA, UK, 1 Australia, Canada, Denmark, Italy, S.Korea, Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE

Country

Articles with international participation yqactiem

1,315

Average citations

376 V. M. Moskovkin et al.

20 Phenomenon of Coronavirus Publication Race

377

References 1. Moskovkin VM, Serkina OV (2016) Is sustainable development of scientific systems possible in the neo—liberal agenda? Ethics Sci Env Politics 16(1):1–9. https://doi.org/10.3354/esep00165 2. Kousha K, Thelwall M (2020) COVID-19 publications: database coverage, citations, readers, tweets, news, Facebook walls, Reddit posts. Quant Sci Stud 1(3):1068−1091. https://arxiv.org/ abs/2004.10400; https://doi.org/10.1162/qss_a_00066 3. Lou J, Tian SJ, Niu SM, et al. (2020) Coronavirus disease 2019: a bibliometric analysis and review. Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci 24:3411−3421. https://www.europeanreview.org/article/ 20712 4. Chen Q, Allot A, Lu Z (2020) Keep up with the latest coronavirus research. Nature 579(7798):193. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00694-1 5. Torres-Salinas D (2020) Ritmo de crecimiento diario de la producción científica sobre Covid19. Análisis en bases de datos y repositorios en acceso abierto. El Profesional de la Información 29(2):e290215. https://doi.org/10.3145/epi.2020.mar.15 6. Herzog C, Hook D, Konkiel S (2020) Dimensions: bringing down barriers between scientometricians and data. Quant Sci Stud 1(1):387−395. https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/ 10.1162/qss_a_00020 7. Patil SB (2020, June 13) A scientometric analysis of global COVID-19 research based on dimensions databases. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3631795 8. Yu Y, Li Y, Zhang Z et al. (2020) A bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer of publications on COVID-19. Ann Transl Med 8(13):816. https://doi.org/10.21037/atm-20-4235 9. Al-Zaman S (2020, July 19) Bibliometric analysis of COVID-19 literature. medRxiv preprint. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154989 10. Dehghanbanadaki H, Seif F, VahidiY, et al. (2020, May 23) Bibliometric analysis of global scientific research on Coronavirus (COVID-19). Med J Islamic Rep Iran. https://doi.org/10. 34171/mjiri.34.51 11. Zyoud SH, Al-Jabi SW (2020) Mapping the situation of research on coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19): a preliminary bibliometric analysis during the early stage of the outbreak. BMC Inf Dis 20:561 12. Tao Z, Zhou S,Yao R, et al. (2020) COVID-19 will stimulate a new coronavirus research breakthrough: a 20-year bibliometric analysis. Ann Transl Med 8(8):528. https://doi.org/10. 21037/atm.2020.04.26

Epilogue: Seeing End of Pandemic or Entering New Era?

COVID-19 pandemic will be probably dealt with some day. But do we really hope that it will be the end of the crisis where the whole humanity plunged at the beginning of 2020? Such hopes are commendable but naïve. Peter Thiel, the co-founder of Paypal, the first man to invest massively in Facebook, recently re-marked in an interview with the Swiss magazine Die Weltwoche about the pandemic and coronacrisis: It brought a quantum leap of ridiculousness in many areas. At US universities, you now pay a $50,000 semester fee for Zoom meetings with your professors. One of the biggest lies was that young people were told that big cities were the future. Yet the big cities work the worst. The real estate is overpriced, the competition is so extreme that it is counterproductive. The essential ugliness of the megacities comes to light in the crisis… There is a fear that the 2020 visible change is threatening and destructive, but it is still healthier, in my opinion, than the continuation of this zombie state, this institutional coma.1

Does Peter Thiel mean the flight into virtuality, which is supposed to make us forget the competition for ever scarcer material resources, simply for real living spaces? Should we in future enjoy a video of a dreamlike, deserted beach, shared millions of times, which we can enjoy on our mobile phones via WhatsApp or Instagram in a two-room flat in the middle of New York, San Francisco or elsewhere, precisely because we are no longer allowed or able to leave it? Are we opening the door to the time when the education will be a privilege of multi-millionaire oligarchy and ruling political elites, while ignorance, mental degradation and manageability the lot of the rest of the world? And more broadly—will this new world with new laws and values be the world of the demise of democracy and real, not postulated, human rights? We cannot resist a feeling that we are entering quite a new stage of social development, perhaps a new stage of human evolution. SARS-CoV-2 will adjust to the 1

Peter Thiel. Ich unterstütze Trump noch immer. Die Weltwoche. 12.8.2020. https://www.wel twoche.ch/ausgaben/2020-33/diese-woche/ich-unterstutze-trump-noch-immer-die-weltwoche-aus gabe-33-2020.html.

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021 F. E. I. Legach and K. S. Sharov (eds.), SARS-CoV-2 and Coronacrisis, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2605-0

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host organism by transforming into a seasonal acute respiratory infection (ARI), as all other ARI viruses once did, and we shall adapt to it, effectively learning how to co-exist with it. However, with the growth of human population, contraction of wild lands on Earth and ever intensified human contacting the rest of wild nature, the emergence of new viral or microbial pathogen is only a matter of time. If we were literally paralysed by a relatively non-dangerous virus with very limited transmission potential and non-lethal typical clinical course, what will we do if a future pathogen is a real danger? Fighting and “vanquishing” SARS-CoV-2, we are forgetting that it only triggered the crisis, it did not cause it. It opened the morbid abscess of striving for global, universal and faceless One Humanity elevated to a highest value by left-wing politicians who try to transform their personal beliefs for which they fought in 1968, to the worldwide maxims that every human must share today. There is no doubt that this world is beginning to dissolve, whose structures have been fixed in our minds steadily since 1945. They are reflected in our sacred writings about freedoms and rights. This applies to the founding charter of the United Nations and especially to the human rights catalogues that were then expanded several times, up to and including the Compact of Migration. The idea that democratically elected governments govern for the benefit and in the interest of those who are supposed to elect them is increasingly in doubt after the coronacrisis. It is not only the English who have noticed that the EU is only held together by obligations that are sold as “solidarity.” But this solidarity amounts to nothing other than an ever more rapidly increasing dispossession of those people who have saved up or acquired claims for their services, be they bank balances or social security entitlements. What will the social behaviour, so vehemently called for in 2020 as “social distancing,” bring about in the nearest future? According to deeply held opinions, it is precisely a matter of “working ever closer together” in order to jointly get to grips with the real challenges on this, “our” planet Earth, which are presumed, not yet understood or simply invented. A contradiction that could not be greater. One way or another, one may clearly see that we live during the dawn of an absolutely new epoch. The novel coronacrisis caused by SARS-CoV-2 in the whole world, was a touchstone that made this truth evident. The edifices of belief that once seemed unshakable to us, are now staggering, shattering and failing. International organisations could not unite governments of different countries to propose a response. The coronacrisis demonstrated that, despite resounding political speeches, homo sapiens cannot live as a global species and the global world without boundaries cannot be governed or managed. It may only sink as a huge Titanic II. Real success in containing SARS-CoV-2 and treating COVID-19 disease, was achieved only when the decision makers took into account regional, national and geographical uniqueness of different territories, countries, cultures and populations rather than universal ideology of globalism’s deindividuation Together we are strong! The ideology of the “First World” most brightly reflected in Michael Jackson’s song We Are the World, unfortunately did not work during the coronacrisis, when not empty political statements and declarations, but deep scientific research and evidence-based medicine were needed. But this cannot be more than just a first step. Homo sapiens,

Epilogue: Seeing End of Pandemic or Entering New Era?

381

the claimed “crown of creation,” has now profoundly altered its own foundation, the ecosystem of the planet. There is no way other than discarding the dystopian notion of transforming “humanity” into synchronised uniform urban mass society that must be “managed and fed” by methods of factory farming. This dystopian approach leads to an existential risk, as it would require to control evolution technically, a process that is not understood deep enough, definitely not by philosophers, professors of ethics, nor even by “environmentalists.” In order to understand better why the phenomenon of corona is so difficult to grasp and why, despite immense technical, scientific and economic efforts, it has not been possible to get to grips with it so far—and probably cannot be managed without fundamentally different strategies—it is necessary to take a look at the planet Earth and its life forms, which tend not towards coexistence but towards symbiotic and always also parasitic behaviour, from a sufficient spatial and temporal distance. Over periods of several ice ages and interglacial periods, three fundamentally different megabiotopes have developed. They have expanded and shrunk, but have retained their highly different specific biological characteristics. • The Boreal Coniferous Forest Ecosystem in the North. Today it forms the largest contiguous forest area on the Earth. • The rainforest areas in the Amazon basin, in the Congo and in South Asia, the “lungs” of the Earth. • The cold and dry deserts around the poles, the Sahara and some other areas in Africa, South America and Asia. The latter largely separate the two aforementioned megabiotopes. Before the spread of modern technical civilisation, these megabiotopes were essentially only connected to each other by migratory birds, with transmission and exchange of different virus and bacteria populations taking place. Their “aggressiveness” was limited by the simple fact that only those “blind passengers” had a chance to spread that the immune systems of the “means of transport” they attacked were able to cope with. After all, only the healthiest and most resilient birds survive such a mediated journey. About half of migratory birds did not reach their destination, as we now know. Humans have decisively changed these natural boundaries in the Earth’s ecosystem over the past one hundred years. Both through technically mediated mobility and through medicine (vaccinations and plant protection), evolutionary boundaries have been laid down and new evolutionary “walls” erected. Modern human has thus called into question his own evolutionary future through his growth and the supposedly successful subjugation of all the creation. What is important in this context is that the modern urban way of life represents a globally connected hyperbiotope, which in this form is an absolutely novel phenomenon in the history of evolution. At least two thirds of the eight billion people today live at an almost constant 20 °C, protected against wind and weather, with artificially produced 14 h of daily brightness and a food supply, both of which are provided independently of seasonal fluctuations. People’s spending most of the time in close physical contact in this largely closed “feel-good atmosphere,” they

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provide an ideal basis for mutated viruses and bacteria that have been introduced or have grown there themselves. The immune systems of these new urbanised species, which are not sufficiently trained due to a lack of different challenges, are therefore too weak to prevent a collapse of this “monoculture of skyscrapers.” However, we have the opportunity to learn excellent lessons from the pandemic and coronacrisis, as we received extensive knowledge in many spheres of life. The way in which we shall utilise this knowledge, will form our future. Frankly we, the Authors