Rural Transition and Transport in China (Population, Regional Development and Transport) 9811964971, 9789811964978

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Population, Regional Development and Transport

Pengjun Zhao · Haoyu Hu

Rural Transition and Transport in China

Population, Regional Development and Transport Series Editor Pengjun Zhao, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

This book series chiefly explores population change, regional development and transport in contemporary China. Its goal is to enhance our current understanding of population, regional development and sustainable transport in a context of rapid urbanization and transition – characterized by the shift from a centrally planned system to a market system, together with growing economic globalization and political decentralization. The series will enrich the existing literature on population studies, regional development studies and transport studies. In particular, it highlights academic research on the interactions between population, regional development and transport. It will also shed new light on government practices with regard to regional development planning and management and transport investment.

Pengjun Zhao · Haoyu Hu

Rural Transition and Transport in China

Pengjun Zhao College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing, China

Haoyu Hu College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing, China

School of Urban Planning and Design Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School Shenzhen, China

The financial support was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41925003 and No. 42130402). ISSN 2662-4613 ISSN 2662-4621 (electronic) Population, Regional Development and Transport ISBN 978-981-19-6497-8 ISBN 978-981-19-6498-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022, corrected publication 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Preface

China has seen great changes in rural areas in recent decades. As a developing country, China has hundreds of millions of rural people, which is of great significance to the world’s poverty alleviation work. The booming economy has promoted the all-round improvement of China’s rural appearance, enabling China to achieve the largest poverty alleviation in human history. At the same time, China is also facing many problems of rural development. Rural transportation infrastructure and services are the most basic guarantee for rural vitalisation and development. How to guide and adapt transportation to the needs of rural development is not only a question to be answered, but also an experience that China can provide to the world. Focusing on China’s rural transportation and the transformation of China’s rural population, this book mainly has the following innovations. Firstly, it is the first book to systematically demonstrate China’s rural transportation. For a long time, the understanding of rural transportation in China is insufficient. This book not only shows the level of China’s rural transportation infrastructure, but also shows the travel behaviour characteristics of China’s rural residents. Secondly, this book explores rural residents’ travel behaviour based on big data of large spatial scale. The investigation of rural residents has always been a very tough job, which makes it difficult for us to accurately understand some behavioural characteristics of rural residents. This book makes full use of mobile phone data and greatly improves the temporal and spatial accuracy of rural residents’ travel research. Thirdly, this book combines China’s rural population transformation and rural transportation development in recent decades. Different from previous studies focusing on transportation itself, this book focuses on the coupling relationship between rural population and transportation. The book consists of 11 chapters. Chapter 1 is the introduction of the whole book. Chapter 2 includes the conceptual exposition and literature review on rural transportation. Chapters 3–9 are the analysis part. Specifically, Chap. 3 introduces the spatial patterns of rural population and settlements in China. Chapter 4 shows the rural transportation infrastructure and its matching with population. Chapter 5 demonstrates the rural population structure change in China and its impact on transportation expenditure. Chapter 6 analyses the accessibility and spatial equity of rural v

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Preface

settlements in China. Chapter 7 resolves China’s rural areal system from the perspective of residents’ travel behaviour. Chapter 8 analyses travel patterns of rural residents based on mobile phone data. Chapter 9 selects typical cases of villagers in mountainous and plain areas to analyse their travel behaviour. Chapter 10 summarises and puts forward some policy thoughts. Chapter 11 is the conclusion of the whole book. The contribution of this book is mainly reflected in four aspects. Firstly, this book introduces China’s successful practice in promoting poverty alleviation in rural areas and can provide experience for other developing countries in the world. Secondly, this book is of great strategic value to rural vitalisation strategy in China, which is one of the most important national strategies in the twenty-first century. Thirdly, this book provides reference for optimising rural transportation planning methods and improving rural transportation planning technical means. Fourthly, this book has theoretical value in transport geography and provides new evidence and ideas for promoting the development of theory in rural transportation. Beijing/Shenzhen, China Beijing, China

Pengjun Zhao Haoyu Hu

Acknowledgements We acknowledge the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41925003 and No. 42130402). The authors are responsible for all errors and interpretations.

The original version of the book was revised: Funder information has been updated. The correction to the book is available at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_12

Contents

1

2

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Research Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.1 Rural Development as an Essential Part of the Sustainable Development Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.2 Transport as a Primary Factor in the Quality of Rural Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.3 Transforming Rural Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.4 Rural Development and Rural Transport in China . . . . . . 1.1.5 Research Needs in Rural Transport Studies . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Research Contents and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 Definition of Rural Areas in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.2 Rural Transport System in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.3 Main Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.4 Data and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Research on Rural Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Rural Transport and Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Rural Transport, Social Equity and Poverty Relief . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Rural Transport, Land Use and Public Facilities Accessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Travel Demand and Behaviour of Rural Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 The Relationship Between Rural Transport and Population . . . . . 2.5.1 Rural Ageing and Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.2 Rural Youth and Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.3 Rural Females and Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.4 Rural Occupation and Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5.5 Rural Family Situation and Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 Summary: Gaps and Future Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 1 1 3 4 6 15 17 17 21 25 26 31 35 35 37 39 41 42 42 43 44 45 46 46 49

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3

4

5

Contents

Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Population Transition in Rural China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.1 Decrease in the Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.2 Distribution and Movement of the Rural Population . . . . 3.1.3 Growth of Income and Poverty Relief Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.4 Change in Lifestyles of the Rural Population . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Changes in Rural Settlements in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Types of Rural Settlements in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Distribution of Rural Settlements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3 Living Environment of Rural Settlements . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Rural Settlements and Population Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

55 55 55 59

Match Between Rural Transport and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Features of Rural Transport Infrastructure and Services . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Rural Road Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Rural Transport Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.3 Rural Public Transport Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 General Process of Rural Transport Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Regional Matching Between Rural Transport and Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Rural Road Network Change and Rural Population . . . . 4.3.2 Rural Transport Investment and Rural Population . . . . . . 4.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

101 101 101 107 110 120

Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 Transition of the Rural Population’s Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 Gender Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2 Age Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.3 Family Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.4 Education Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.5 Hukou Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 Transport Expenditure in Rural Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2 Impact of Population Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.3 Spatial Differences in the Impacts of Population Composition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

131 131 131 136 142 147 151

66 73 77 77 81 88 90 96 97

124 124 126 128 129

151 151 154 157 166 168

Contents

6

7

8

ix

Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 Rural Settlement Accessibility to Highway Network . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.1 Overall Accessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.2 County-Level Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Spatial Equity of Rural Accessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1 Analysis of Intracounty Equity of Accessibility . . . . . . . 6.2.2 Analysis of Intercounty Equity of Accessibility . . . . . . . 6.2.3 Relationship Between Accessibility and Transport Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

171 171 171 176 178 178 183

Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Travel Behaviour and Rural Settlement System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Rural Settlement System Defined by Transport Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2 Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.3 Travel Purposes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4 Travel Distance and Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Factors in Travel Frequency to Different Levels of Settlements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.1 Township Residents’ Travel and Rural Settlement System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.2 Villagers’ Travel and Rural Settlement System . . . . . . . . 7.3.3 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

189 189 190

Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions . . . . . . . . . 8.1 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1 Travel Distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.2 Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.3 Travel Frequency Differences Between Different Destinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 Factors in Rural Residents’ Travel Distance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1 Impact of Regional Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2 Impact of Spatial Differences on Regional Factors . . . . . 8.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

211 211 212 213 222

184 187 188

190 192 194 199 201 201 205 207 209 209

231 236 236 240 246 246

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Contents

Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Rural Counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 Regional Context and Case Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.1 Regional Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.2 Case Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Problems with Rural Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.1 Transport Planning and Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.2 Development of Public Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.3 Accessibility to Public Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 Comparison of Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.1 Travel Patterns in Anping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.2 Travel Patterns in Longhua . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

249 249 249 253 261 261 264 266 271 271 276 283 285

10 Build an Inclusive Transport System for Rural China . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 Practices and Problems with the Existing Polices . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1.1 Planning and Construction of Rural Transport . . . . . . . . . 10.1.2 Operation and Management of Rural Transport . . . . . . . . 10.1.3 Maintenance of Rural Transport Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1.4 Relevant Policy Documents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 New Development Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.1 People-Oriented Concept . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.2 Spatial Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.3 Economically Coordinated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.4 Environmentally Friendly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.5 Smart and Efficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 New Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.1 Improve the Rural Basic Road Network Comprehensively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.2 Build an Integrated Urban–Rural Transport System . . . . 10.3.3 Promote the Informatisation of Rural Transport Operation and Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.4 Implement a Normalised Rural Infrastructure Maintenance Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.5 Provide a Humanised High-Quality Rural Transport Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.6 Develop Modern Rural Transport Logistics . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 New Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.1 Legal System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.2 Economic Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.3 Management Reforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

287 287 287 289 291 292 292 292 302 303 304 305 306 306 310 313 315 317 319 320 320 324 326

Contents

10.5 Key Actions in the Coming Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5.1 Construct Transport Facilities to Fill in the Blanks . . . . . 10.5.2 Upgrade Low-Standard and Poor-Quality Rural Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5.3 Establish a Bus Network to Serve Urban and Rural Areas Effectively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5.4 Build a Set of Intelligent Rural Transport Management Platforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5.5 Form a Maintenance Mechanism for Rural Transport Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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328 328 328 329 329 329 330

11 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 Main Findings and Contributions to the Existing International Literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 Policy Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2.1 Policy Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2.2 Policy Obstacles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 Future Research Agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3.1 Future Rural Changes in the World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3.2 Prospects of Rural Population and Transport Development in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3.3 Prospect of Research Topics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

333

344 347 348

Correction to: Rural Transition and Transport in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

C1

333 339 339 341 342 342

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353

Chapter 1

Introduction

1.1 Research Significance 1.1.1 Rural Development as an Essential Part of the Sustainable Development Goals Rural development has always been a fundamental, overall and strategic issue for human society. It is an important goal of human development to engage in comprehensive poverty alleviation globally. For a long time, poverty has been widespread in rural areas and most poverty has been rural (Ashley & Maxwell, 2001). In the United Nations Millennium Declaration (United Nations, 2000), development and poverty eradication is the primary goal of the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In 2015, the United Nations promoted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations, 2015a), among which ending poverty is still the first issue. According to the United Nations Global Sustainable Development Report 2019, the proportion of global poverty in 2018 was 8.6% (United Nations, 2019). Compared with 2015, the number of poor people is still on the rise. The United Nations predicts that the poverty reduction goal of the 2030 agenda will be difficult to achieve. Thus, the global poverty reduction process is facing an extremely severe test (Fig. 1.1). Rural areas are the core and the main battlefield to promote poverty reduction globally. In 2018, there were 1.3 billion multi-dimensional poverty-stricken people in the world, of whom 1.1 billion were living in rural areas, accounting for more than 80% of multi-dimensional poverty-stricken people (United Nations, 2019). These multidimensional poverty-stricken people are concentrated in Asia and Africa, mainly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, with 546 million and 342 million, respectively (Alkire & Kanagaratnam, 2021). Rural populations in these regions live in extreme poverty, and more than 650 million rural residents in sub-Saharan Africa live without electricity at all. There are 785 million people in the world with no access to safe drinking water services who can only drink untreated surface water. More than 80% © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_1

1

1 Introduction x 100000000

2 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 total population

population in people without safe multidimensional drinking water poverty

people without power supply

Fig. 1.1 Population size of the world’s poor. Data source United Nations (2019)

of the people without access to safe drinking water live in rural areas (World Health Organization and UNICEF 2019). In addition, rural areas generally lack medical and educational resources. Due to insufficient incentives and a lack of trained medical and health workers and teachers, it is difficult for rural residents to obtain good medical and educational services (World Health Organization, 2010). Currently, 3.41 billion people live in the world’s rural areas (United Nations, 2019), accounting for nearly half the world’s population. A comprehensive and in-depth understanding of rural transformation is of great significance to promote the development of rural areas and sustainable development throughout the world. Poverty is still the most arduous challenge facing humankind. At present, poverty mainly exists in rural areas of developing countries. Due to the new threats brought by climate change, regional conflicts and food insecurity, global rural poverty remains a major problem. The Zero Hunger Challenge launched by the United Nations has ending rural poverty as an important objective (United Nations, 2015b). Ending rural poverty is a complex task, which involves nine of the SDGs (Fig. 1.2), namely no poverty, zero hunger, gender equity, economic growth, infrastructure, reduced inequalities, life below water, life on land and partnerships for the goals. Rural transport plays an indispensable role in achieving these goals (Cook et al., 2017). In recent decades, China’s rapid development and increasing attention to rural development have promoted poverty alleviation in rural areas, greatly promoted the process of global poverty reduction and provided a reference for the development of rural populations globally. However, the problem of imbalance still exists. It is urgent to meet the needs of rural population development more effectively and to achieve higher-quality sustainable development.

1.1 Research Significance

3

Fig. 1.2 SDGs related to rural poverty (reproduced from United Nations (2015b))

1.1.2 Transport as a Primary Factor in the Quality of Rural Life Poor transport conditions are regarded as one of the main constraints on rural development (Sieber, 1998). Usually, rural settlements have many fewer available social services than urban areas. As a result, the residents of rural settlements must commute for relatively long distances to attend school, visit doctors, shop for necessities, attend cultural events, etc. (Stastna & Vaishar, 2017). In this context, transport conditions are the key to whether rural residents have access to these social services. If it is difficult for rural residents to access different kinds of social services easily, their quality of life cannot be guaranteed. As a primary factor in rural residents’ life quality, the impact of transport is reflected in mobility and accessibility. These are two key concepts related to transport that often overlap without clear distinction (Plazini´c & Jovi´c, 2018). Generally, mobility focuses on the movement of residents, which can be measured by travel frequency (Nobis & Lenz, 2009; Scheiner, 2006) or travel distance (Frändberg & Vilhelmson, 2003), etc. Mobility issues are particularly important in rural areas because the range and extent of public transport services are significantly lower than in urban areas (Mounce et al., 2020). Mobility can be affected by people’s capabilities. In rural areas, the mobility of the poor is often restricted by low car ownership,

4

1 Introduction

fewer travel demands, and unemployment (Zhao & Yu, 2021). It is believed that improved mobility can help to reduce the risk of social exclusion (Stanley et al., 2011). The main emphasis of accessibility is on the opportunity to access facilities or services. Accessibility can be measured in different ways. According to Geurs and Van Wee (2004), the measurement of accessibility includes infrastructure-, location-, person-, and utility-based measures. In terms of rural transport, the existing literature usually pays attention to the accessibility of medical services (Gage & Guirlène Calixte, 2006; Nag, 1989; Tanser et al., 2006), such as hospitals. Whether going for medical treatment or going to a market, accessibility is of great importance to rural residents. Enabling people to access services can deliver substantial benefits to people’s quality of life.

1.1.3 Transforming Rural Areas A rural area contrasts with an urban area. Different countries and regions in the world have different standards for defining towns and villages, but generally speaking, the definitions of villages relate to those of cities and towns. Rural areas are considered bounded by wilderness areas and characterised by a lack of impact of human civilisation (Van der Ploeg, 1997). Halfacree (1993) proposed that rurality has four aspects. The first is sociospatial parameters, such as land use, population density, employment, etc. The second is a rural way of life, which is different from an urban way of life. The third is a specific interrelation between spatial and sociological characteristics. The fourth is personal perceptions and interpretations of everyday reality. For example, urban people conceive rural areas as natural places where they can relax from the stress of urban life. Compared with cities and towns, rural areas have smaller settlement scales and lower population densities, and agriculture is the main industrial activity. Therefore, the general urban and rural definitions also include thresholds for these aspects. Pahl (1966) questioned the concept of a dual division between urban and rural areas and believed that modernisation does not necessarily mean a transformation from rural to urban. In the context of the rise of structuralism and other trends of thought, some scholars believe that the definition of rural areas is a concept imposed by scholars and policy makers (Murdoch & Pratt, 1993), which is an interpretation of elitism. Over the past century, Western rural economies have undergone a great transformation. Irwin et al. (2010) pointed out that rural transformation in North America was fuelled by labour-saving technological progress in agriculture and other natural resource industries, reductions in transport costs and rising incomes. Since the start of the twentieth century, rural–urban income parity has improved. At the same time, farm population has been declining and the rural economy has become more diversified. A prominent change is that the employment structure in rural areas is no longer dominated by agricultural production. By the end of the twentieth century, most rural residents in the USA were not farmers (Irwin et al., 2010).

1.1 Research Significance

5

Innovation in transport is the key reason for rural transformation (Schauer, 2003). At the beginning of the twentieth century, cars reduced the cost of intracity transport and led to city expansion into the countryside. However, the distinctions between rural and urban were still clear. After World War II, urbanisation began to slow down. Regional road networks improved greatly, which made many once-remote places more accessible. This resulted in the decentralisation of population and production, leading to urban sprawl and exurban development. Since the 1980s, both rural and urban areas in Western countries have become home to many of the economic functions that previously had occurred only in cities. Over time, the links between urban and rural areas have been greatly strengthened. This feature is closely related to transport. Car ownership in Western countries has kept rising. Car transport has enabled rural people and communities engaged with non-farm urban economies by allowing commuting to urban employment. Commuting ties between rural places of residence and urban places of employment are among the most visible forms of rural–urban integration (Partridge et al., 2010). Rural–urban interdependence through commuting may also be conceptualised as a complex network of interdependency rather than a unidirectional influence (Goetz et al., 2010). The change in the rural population is an important embodiment of rural transformation. The rural population in this book is the population living in rural areas, so it is also the population not living in urban areas. The rural population is a complex social entity, which can be analysed from many perspectives, including the total amount and change of rural population, the structure and change of rural population, the spatial distribution and change of rural population, population flow and migration, etc. Compared with the urban population or the total population, the rural population has some unique characteristics. For example, the population composition can be divided by age structure, gender structure, education structure, family structure, employment structure and so on. In terms of family structure, rural areas have different ageing characteristics from urban areas; in terms of gender structure, rural areas have different proportions of females; in terms of education structure, rural areas have different labour quality from cities and towns; in terms of family structure, rural areas have different characteristics of minority children; in terms of employment structure, rural areas have different distribution characteristics of employment industries. The characteristics of each rural population reflect a certain rural social development problem, which needs the attention of policymakers. It is urgent to put forward policies that address development needs. Rural development also faces many worldwide challenges. Even in developed countries, rural areas are often in a relatively weak position compared with urban areas. One problem is youth outmigration. It is reported that net losses approach 20% or more of young adults in some non-metro counties in the USA (Gibbs & Cromartie, 1994). Net migration losses are more severe among the best educated young people, which indicates the richer urban array of colleges and high-skill jobs. Another big problem is rural health care. All countries face shortages of doctors and other health professionals in rural and remote areas (Strasser, 2003). For instance, 17% of the US population lives in rural or remote communities, while only 9% of

6

1 Introduction

doctors practice in rural areas (Bolin et al., 2015). At the same time, sanitation systems are still inadequate in rural areas all around the globe (Moreira & Dias, 2020). Rural sanitation is commonly poor in low- and middle-income countries (World Health Organization, 2018).

1.1.4 Rural Development and Rural Transport in China 1.1.4.1

Overall View of Rural Transport

China is a developing country with the largest population in the world. The rural population of China ranks second globally, reaching 564 million. Understanding the characteristics of rural transformation in China is of great benefit to students of rural development globally. China has a population of over 1.4 billion, accounting for nearly a quarter of the world’s total population. China’s rural development and poverty alleviation are obviously typical. In the early days of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, China was still an agricultural country, in which most of the population lived in rural areas and most of the population lived in poverty. Since China’s reform and opening up, on the one hand, society and the economy have developed rapidly, but on the other hand, it has gradually increased its efforts to help the poor in rural areas. Consequently, more than 700 million rural poor people have been successfully lifted out of poverty in China, more than in any other country in the world. However, with the rapid development of urbanisation, the problem of rural hollowing in China has become increasingly prominent (Liu et al., 2010). The essence of rural hollowing is people leaving old houses empty and new housing being built on the periphery. Domestic scholars have discussed the mechanism of this process and conducted micro-analysis of typical cases of hollowed villages (Li et al., 2014; Long et al., 2012). The construction of central villages is of great practical significance for the intensive use of land resources, giving full play to the rural infrastructure, improving the quality of life of the rural population, and speeding up the process of rural modernisation in China. It is an important way to urbanise development in Chinese rural areas at present and in the future. Specifically, the construction of specialised villages has become an efficient way to enhance the core competitiveness of the rural economy in China. Zheng and Liu (2018) summarise the problems in China’s rural development and call them “rural diseases,” which have five aspects. Firstly, rural areas are undergoing rapid non-agricultural transformation. It is reported that nearly 20,000 square kilometres of cultivated land is abandoned in China every year due to the transfer of population to urban areas and the poor transfer of land use rights (Lu, 2016). At the same time, more than 10 million farmers have lost their farmlands in China due to urban construction. Excessive non-agricultural processes in rural areas may threaten China’s food security.

1.1 Research Significance

7

Secondly, the main body of rural society is ageing and weakening too quickly. Ageing is a major population problem facing China. Coupled with the rapid loss of the rural young labour force, the number of rural left-behind older people, left-behind females and left-behind children has also increased. The ageing of the population makes rural construction and cultural development even more difficult. Furthermore, rural population ageing is believed to be largely responsible for the sharp increase in income inequality in rural China (Zhong, 2011). Thirdly, rural land use efficiency is low. Industrialisation and urbanisation have not only promoted the loss of rural population, but also led to improvements in rural residents’ willingness to extend their houses. Poor land management in rural China has led to large numbers of hollowed villages in rural areas. It is a common phenomenon in rural China that farmers build new houses without demolishing old ones. It is reported that there are more than 76 thousand square kilometres of hollowed villages that can be renovated (Liu, 2011). Fourthly, soil and water in rural areas are seriously polluted. The coexistence of domestic pollution, agricultural pollution and industrial pollution have worsened the rural environment. In the process of agricultural production, chemical fertilisers and pesticides have been abused in some areas in China (Zhang, 2004). At the same time, enterprises in China’s rural areas are generally small and medium-sized with high pollution and low production technology levels (Huang & Liu, 2010). The pollution of the rural environment affects not only the safety of agricultural products and the investment environment of local industries, but also the health of rural residents. Fifthly, multi-dimensional poverty is still widespread in rural China. Multidimensional poverty in rural China includes not only the low income level of farmers, but also the low nutritional level of rural children, the shortage of rural infrastructure and the lack of social welfare. The National Health Commission of China reported that the low weights and growth retardation rates of rural children in poor areas are 6–8 times higher than those in urban areas. This low level of nutrition and health has led to the intergenerational transmission of rural poverty.

1.1.4.2

Rural Poverty Alleviation

The number of rural poverty-stricken people in China has dropped from 770.39 million in 1978 to 5.51 million in 2019 (the Chinese government defines the poverty-stricken population as an annual income of 2300 CNY or less per capita) (Fig. 1.3). The rapid decline in China’s poor population is largely due to the Chinese government’s high attention to rural development and poverty relief. From November 27 to 28, 2015, China held a central poverty alleviation and development conference. China’s president Xi Jinping emphasised that to eradicate poverty, the gradual process of improving people’s livelihoods and the gradual realisation of common prosperity should be eliminated, and that all regions should be lifted out of poverty by 2020. At the nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017, President Xi Jinping called for the mobilisation of the whole party and society as a whole. For poverty alleviation, China emphasises the system of top leaders’ responsibility. The

1 Introduction

Rural poor population in China x 10,000

8 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Fig. 1.3 Changes in the scale of the rural poor population in China (1978–2019). Data source China Rural Statistical Yearbook (2019)

Chinese government pays attention to the combination of poverty alleviation with supporting the will and intelligence of the people. To tackle the task of poverty alleviation in deeply poverty-stricken areas and to solve regional poverty overall, China’s central government strongly encouraged deep cooperation between east China and west China. China regards transport development as an important support for rural poverty alleviation. Since 2012, the Ministry of Transport of China has formulated a transport poverty alleviation plan, including 1177 county-level administrative regions in poverty-stricken areas, old revolutionary base areas,1 ethnic minority areas and border areas. It has adhered to the principle of “priority arrangement of poverty alleviation projects, priority guarantee of poverty alleviation funds, priority docking of poverty alleviation work, and priority implementation of poverty alleviation measures” to promote unconventional measures and efforts in poverty-stricken areas. It has speeded up the construction of the transport network with external and internal links, smoothed travel between villages and towns, made buses to villages safe and convenient, vigorously improved the service level of urban and rural passenger and freight transport, and improved the management and maintenance system and mechanism for rural roads. China set the goal that by 2020, poverty-stricken areas would basically be connected to major national expressways, counties that meet the conditions will be connected with roads of Class II or above, and villages with conditions would be connected with hardened roads and buses. It met this target. By grasping 1

The old revolutionary base areas of China refer to the areas established as bases under the leadership of the Communist Party of China during the Agrarian Revolutionary War and the Anti-Japanese War. Most of these areas are in mountainous terrain, and the level of economic development in them is relatively low.

1.1 Research Significance

9

the development of transport infrastructure, the government has aimed to provide transport guarantees for poverty alleviation in rural areas in China. China’s success in promoting poverty alleviation in rural areas can provide rich experience for other developing countries. This book focuses on China’s rural population development and rural transport issues, illuminating the detailed situation of China’s rural development and poverty alleviation. Transport development has enabled rural areas to connect with other regions, which has made it easier for rural residents to travel and to get in touch with external markets and new ideas. It has also enabled external resources to enter rural areas and promoted investment in rural areas.

1.1.4.3

Challenges in Rural Transport

The key to the integration of urban and rural development lies in how to improve and strengthen the economic and social cooperation between urban and rural areas so that the differences between urban and rural areas are gradually narrowed and eventually eliminated. Achieving urban–rural equalisation is the key to promoting the integration of urban and rural development. Urban–rural equalisation is embodied in the basic equivalence of urban and rural resource allocation, infrastructure, public services, employment opportunities, quality of life and democratic decision-making. The interaction and dynamics of the urban–rural regional system promote the benign interaction between industry and agriculture, urban and rural areas. Rural transport infrastructure and services are the most basic guarantee for rural vitalisation and development. On the one hand, rural transport infrastructure and services, as the carriers of resources and material exchange between rural areas and the outside world, are the arteries of rural development. On the other hand, rural transport infrastructure and services are the guarantee for the extension of public service capacity in rural areas, which is closely related to the daily travel of residents, and it is the basis for ensuring high-quality life. Therefore, the relevant research on rural transport infrastructure and services provides important support for China’s rural vitalisation strategy and provides the foundation for rural residents to eliminate poverty and to improve the quality of production and life. In recent years, rural transport has not only been the basic economic lifeline of rural development, but it has also been directly related to the quality of life of residents. However, due to the differences in urbanisation development stage between China and Western developed countries, there are different concerns in research on the rural transport infrastructure. At present, developed countries focus more on transport equity, travel experience and traffic safety issues, such as traffic accidents and their influencing factors. Relatively speaking, China’s urban and rural transport network is still not accessible, and there are obstacles to the flow of urban and rural resources, which requires further research and analysis.

10

1 Introduction

Specifically, there are at least the following prominent problems in China’s rural transport. Firstly, residents who live in poor areas or areas far from cities have lowlevel mobility compared with urban residents (Zhao & Yu, 2020). Villagers in lessdeveloped areas have smaller travel ranges, lower travel frequency, and lower car ownership rates. Secondly, public transport service in rural China is poor (Li et al., 2014; Yu & Zhao, 2021). The quality and quantity of bus services vary significantly between towns. Operators of rural buses are mostly private, and many are informal and unregulated. Thirdly, the maintenance of rural roads is insufficient (Alkire & Kanagaratnam, 2021; Ni, 2019). The quality standards for rural road construction are not strict, and the bearing capacity of many roads cannot meet the requirements of transport, resulting in a series of problems such as massive cracks. These can cause potential safety hazards for traffic. In the traditional planning system in China, transport planning is generally regarded as special planning at different levels of cities and regions, and it takes the form of comprehensive transport planning. Under comprehensive transport plans, there are specific transport facility construction plans for various modes of transport such as highways, railways and aviation. The planning of rural areas mainly takes place on the system scale, which usually includes township master planning and village planning. Therefore, rural transport mainly depends on the township master plan and special transport plan in the village planning, as well as transport facility planning led by the transport department, such as rural road network planning. As the traditional planning system pays more attention to urban areas than to the countryside, rural transport planning has been a relatively weak link for a long time. In recent years, China has implemented a reform of the planning system. The reform has promoted the integration of multiple plans, replacing the original urban planning system, land use planning system and main functional zoning with territorial spatial planning. It has emphasised the coordination of different contents in the plan (Hu & Zhou, 2018). Territorial spatial planning has dealt with the problem of only paying attention to urban areas, and it has expanded the planning scope to the whole territory, that is, from the city to the whole administrative region. Rural areas outside the city are receiving more attention than before. Territorial spatial planning takes the infrastructure, including transport infrastructure, as a part of the key planning content, and it emphasises the arrangement of land demand and the construction sequence for transport infrastructure to ensure efficient and intensive land use. There is a long-term contradiction between supply and demand in rural transport planning and construction (Thomas, 2021). On the one hand, there are continuous calls for better travel conditions for rural residents. The current rural transport infrastructure and services cannot meet the travel needs of rural residents, and many villages still face the problems of insufficient transport supply and travel inconvenience. On the other hand, the inputs and outputs of rural transport construction are not proportional to each other. Many rural roads have no use and no maintenance, which fails to produce economic benefits and to promote effective development of the rural economy. The reason for this problem is largely the characteristics of rural transport itself. Compared with urban areas, the population density in rural areas is

1.1 Research Significance

11

lower, and the travel demand is not as centralised as that in cities. As a result, the benefits of single transport facilities are far less than those in cities. Therefore, if the rural transport planning fails to meet the demand accurately, it is easy to have a contradiction between the supply and the demand. To solve the contradiction between supply and demand in rural transport and to produce coordinated development, it is necessary to understand the patterns of rural population and the status quo of rural transport development. Based on this, we can accurately plan and arrange rural transport infrastructure construction and services. Through the study of rural transformation, this book offers a reference for optimising rural transport planning methods and improving the technical means of planning.

1.1.4.4

National Strategy of Rural Vitalisation

To cope with the situation of China’s social and economic development, China put forward the Rural Vitalisation Strategy in 2017, and regarded it as an important national strategy.2 The strategy of rural vitalisation was put forward in the context of certain problems in rural development in China. In the twenty-first century, although China has made great achievements in development, regional differences and the urban–rural gap have gradually become a problem. Due to the transfer of the rural young and middle-aged labour force to the city, the economic development in rural areas lacks vitality, and problems such as older villagers, left-behind children’s villages and so on are widespread. The gap between urban and rural areas is expanding in many areas. To solve the differences between urban and rural areas, China decided to implement the Rural Vitalisation Strategy, and it promulgated the Strategic Plan for Rural Vitalisation (2018–2022)3 in 2018, and put forward the specific implementation plan for the strategy. 2

Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee has continued to step up its support for rural communities. Issues concerning agriculture, rural development and the wellbeing of farmers now top the agenda of the party. The first document issued by the central authority each year since 2003 has had a rural focus. Plans for integrated urban–rural development were proposed in the reports to the seventeenth and eighteenth CPC national congresses, providing an important boost to agricultural development and farmers’ incomes. Meanwhile, the urban–rural imbalance remains the most serious imbalance, and rural development remains the most serious development challenge. A rural vitalisation strategy was thus unveiled in the report to the nineteenth CPC National Congress as one of the seven strategies for reaching the goal of building a moderately prosperous society. This strategy has also been translated into rural vitalisation in many documents and news reports. 3 China has released a five-year plan on its rural vitalisation strategy, the first of its kind, mapping out a number of major projects, programs and actions. The plan was released by the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council. The rural vitalisation strategy is “a major historic task for securing a decisive victory in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and for fully building a modern socialist country,” the plan said. The document outlines key tasks for the 2018–2022 period towards the strategy’s overall goal of building rural areas with thriving businesses, pleasant living environments, social etiquette and civility, effective governance, and prosperity. Focusing on the factors of humans, land and funds, the plan makes arrangements for speeding up the work to grant permanent urban residency to rural people moving to cities, strengthening talent support for

12

1 Introduction

The Rural Vitalisation Strategy covers many aspects of rural development, specifically industrial development, ecological environment, education and culture, governance level and living standards. The planning has put forward practical index targets in each area (Table 1.1), and the index coverage has strong integrity. These indicators are divided into two categories: obligatory indicators that must be achieved and anticipatory indicators that are likely to be achieved. Most of the indicators are anticipatory indicators, which will mainly be achieved by relying on the independent behaviour of market entities. The government can create a good macroenvironment, institutional environment and market environment by adjusting the direction and strength of macro-control when appropriate and by comprehensively applying the policies of finance, industry and investment to make the market allocation of resources more effective. There are two obligatory indicators, namely the comprehensive grain production capacity and the proportion of qualified villages with hardened roads. The former is related to the basic food security of the country, so it must be controlled by administrative means; the latter concerns the transport infrastructure in rural areas, which is related to the travel of rural residents. According to the index system proposed in the strategic plan, China would achieve 100% access to hardened roads in organic villages by 2020, and in the first half of 2020, China would invest 249.5 billion CNY in rural roads, a target it met. This fully reflects the Chinese government’s great attention to the role of transport in rural development. China’s Rural Vitalisation Strategy attaches great importance to rural population development and rural transport. Rural vitalisation focuses on the registered residence system and the population ageing problem. It promotes the citizenisation of the agricultural transfer population and improves the ability to provide services for the aged in rural areas. In terms of rural transport, rural vitalisation focuses on rural traffic safety and rural transport infrastructure, and it puts forward the implementation of rural road traffic safety supervision and management responsibility. It also emphasises strengthening rural highway maintenance and building a rural logistics infrastructure backbone network. As an important infrastructure in rural areas, transport plays an important supporting role in rural vitalisation. To give full play to the role of transport in rural vitalisation, we need to strengthen two aspects further. First, we should strengthen the coordination between transport and rural population development. The characteristics of rural population development affect rural traffic demand. It is necessary to understand the characteristics of rural population development in different areas fully and to grasp the differences in travel demand accurately under different population characteristics, so that the transport development can better adapt to the population. Second, we should give full play to the supporting and leading role of transport in rural vitalisation. Through the improvement of transport, rural agricultural and side-line products, tourism resources can go out, enterprises, advanced technology and advanced concept mode can come in, and both can promote the development of the rural economy. Through the improvement of transport conditions, rural residents can more easily reach the surrounding areas. rural vitalisation, guaranteeing land supply for the strategy’s implementation, diversifying sources of investment, improving financial support and other tasks.

1.1 Research Significance

13

Table 1.1 Main indicators of rural vitalisation strategic planning Classification

Industry

Liveability

Civilisation

Order

Index

Unit

2016

2020

2022

Base value

Target value

Target value

Attribute

1

Comprehensive Billion grain production tons capacity

>0.6

>6

>6

Obligatory

2

Contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress

%

56.7

60

61.5

Anticipatory

3

Agricultural labour productivity

Thousand CNY

3.1

4.7

5.5

Anticipatory

4

Ratio of – agricultural products processing output value to total agricultural output value

2.2

2.4

2.5

Anticipatory

5

Leisure agriculture and rural tourism reception

Billion CNY

2.1

28

32

Anticipatory

6

Comprehensive utilisation rate of livestock manure

%

60

75

78

Obligatory

7

Village greening % rate

20

30

32

Anticipatory

8

Proportion of villages dealing with domestic waste

%

65

90

>90

Anticipatory

9

Popularisation rate of rural sanitary toilets

%

80.3

85

>85

Anticipatory

10

Coverage rate of % village comprehensive cultural service centre

–

95

98

Anticipatory

(continued)

14

1 Introduction

Table 1.1 (continued) Classification

Governance

Order

Index

Unit

2016

2020

2022

Base value

Target value

Target value

Attribute

11

Proportion of civilised villages and towns at or above county level

%

21.2

50

>50

Anticipatory

12

Proportion of full-time teachers with bachelor’s degree or above

%

55.9

65

68

Anticipatory

13

Proportion of education, culture and entertainment expenditure of rural residents

%

10.6

12.6

13.6

Anticipatory

14

Coverage rate of % village planning and management

–

80

90

Anticipatory

15

Proportion of villages with integrated service stations

%

14.3

50

53

Anticipatory

16

Proportion of village party secretaries serving as director of village committee

%

30

35

50

Anticipatory

17

Proportion of % villages with village rules and regulations

98

100

100

Anticipatory

18

Proportion of strong villages in collective economy

5.3

8

9

Anticipatory

%

(continued)

1.1 Research Significance

15

Table 1.1 (continued) Classification

Living standard

Order

Index

Unit

2016

2020

2022

Base value

Target value

Target value

Attribute

19

Engel coefficient of rural residents

%

32.2

30.2

29.2

Anticipatory

20

Income ratio of urban and rural residents

–

2.72

2.69

2.67

Anticipatory

21

Rural tap water penetration rate

%

79

83

85

Anticipatory

22

Proportion of roads to be hardened in qualified villages

%

96.7

100

100

Obligatory

The service level of public service facilities for rural areas and the quality of life of rural residents can be improved. With the proposal and promotion of China’s rural vitalisation strategy, the relevant research has gradually been expanded by the government and academia. Scholars have paid attention to the basic theory and method of rural vitalisation (Jiang et al., 2021; Ma et al., 2019; Xie et al., 2020), including the concept and connotation of China’s rural vitalisation, the factors restricting China’s rural vitalisation, and the mode of rural vitalisation. At the same time, the impact of land use change on the construction of new rural areas has been widely explored and explained.

1.1.5 Research Needs in Rural Transport Studies For a long time, transport studies have been considered interdisciplinary, as they involve many academic disciplines including geography, civil engineering, neoclassical economics and business (Goetz, 2006). Compared with other disciplines, transport geography focuses more on spatial issues. It includes important topics such as spatial structure, process, interaction and organisation (Taaffe et al., 1996). Transport geographers also show solicitude for the relationships between transport and other elements, such as economy, environment, society and policy (Knowles et al., 2008). Research in transport geography studies covers multiple scales ranging from global and national, regional and interurban, and intraurban and neighbourhood, to household and individual (Liu & Gui, 2016). However, relatively speaking, rural transport receives far less attention than regional or urban transport. In fact, rural areas are an indispensable part of where human activities take place (Dasgupta et al., 2014). Rural areas cover a wider area of the earth’s surface than

16

1 Introduction

urban areas, and the rural and urban together constitute the human settlement system (Kawashima & Korcelli, 1982). Only by integrating the rural and urban areas can we understand the structure, evolution process and development mechanism of transport systems more comprehensively and deeply. The geographical environment of rural areas is significantly different from that of cities, with completely different resource endowments. However, the study of regional transport geography tends to pay more attention to the relationships between cities. More attention goes to the city as a node in the transport network, and little attention is paid to the rural areas in the region. Rural transport is a relatively weak point in the study of transport geography. It is urgent to carry out more empirical studies and to establish more transport geography theory to determine the unique characteristics of rural geographical environment and resource endowment. Currently, existing studies are inadequate in several ways. Firstly, the literature on rural transport is dominated by the cases from developed countries (Nutley, 1996; Sharav et al., 2019), while evidence from less-developed areas is rather fragmented. Considering the significant differences among countries with diverse geographical environments, transport resources and attitudes of the public and institutional decision makers, perceptions of transport-related problems and policy solutions must be specifically appraised (Nutley, 1996). In recent years, rural transport in developing countries has attracted more attention from scholars, but it still needs further research. Secondly, the impact of rural transport infrastructure and services on economic development remains unclear (Barwell et al., 2019). It is generally believed that accessibility is of positive significance to rural development (Cole, 1968; Tarafder & Jana, 2022). However, the promotion effect of transport investment in different rural areas varies (González-González & Nogués, 2019). In recent years, Chinese scholars in geography and sociology have paid close attention to rural development. However, rural transport issues have not received enough attention. Since the reform and opening up,4 China’s rural transformation and development has had a specific connotation in the realisation of rural traditional industries, the transformation of employment patterns and consumption structure, and the reconstruction of social structure. Rural development has entered a new stage of transformation and upgrading. Related research mainly involves the types and rural nature of rural transformation and development (Zhang, 1998), the spatial and temporal pattern (Long, 2013), characteristics and mechanisms (Liu & Yang, 2012), resource and environmental effects (Li et al., 2008), dynamic mechanisms and optimisation countermeasures of rural transformation and development (Long et al., 2011). The study also focuses on the relationship between land use transformation and rural development, and the reconstruction of rural production, life and ecological space relying on land consolidation.

4

In the 1970s, Deng Xiaoping led China through comprehensive market economy reforms and an opening-up policy that transformed China into a receptive society for foreign investors and a place providing numerous opportunities for locals. After that, China experienced a drastic change in shifting the country from its unsteady early economic trajectory to a more sustainable path.

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology

17

Fig. 1.4 Spatial distribution of urban and rural areas in China. Data Source Geographic data platform of Peking University

Taking China as the case study area, this book provides a large number of empirical analyses of rural population development and rural transport, and it contributes empirical evidence for the study of rural transport geography to make up for the deficiency in transport geography. China has one of the largest rural areas and one of the largest rural populations in the world (Fig. 1.4). At the same time, China has experienced rapid development and changes in the past few decades, and it has the characteristics of multiple development stages, which is conducive to a more comprehensive study and understanding of rural transport geography. Based on the development of rural transport in China, this book fully considers the role of population in the human–land system, providing new findings and ideas for promoting the development of transport geography.

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology 1.2.1 Definition of Rural Areas in China Internationally, due to different levels of economic and social development, there are great differences in the definitions and measurement of rural areas in different countries, including population density, population size, number of households, tax situation, etc. For example, the UK takes the total population of rural areas as the

18

1 Introduction

standard, and its 1997 census defines rural areas as small towns and villages with less than 3000 people. In the 2001 rural census report of the UK, villages were defined as settlements with no more than 10,000 people. According to this standard, urban areas cover 43.67 million residents, accounting for 82.4% of the total population (Department of the Environment, 2013). The US Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas: urbanised areas (UAs) of 50,000 or more people and urban clusters (UCs) of at least 2500 and less than 50,000 people. Rural areas encompass all the population, housing and territory not included within an urban area. Scholars have given different definitions and standards in the comparative study of urban and rural areas. For example, Pucher and Renne (2005) used data from the national household travel survey of the USA. They used a population density of 500 per square mile as the dividing point between urban and rural areas. Harvey (1992) defined rural areas as villages and small towns after studying the travel of residents in different regions. Millward and Spinney (2009) adopted the urban–rural definition criteria in the 2005 Canadian usage survey, which defined census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations as urban areas, and villages and small towns as rural areas. It is not difficult to see the differences in the definition standards of rural areas in different countries. However, to analyse the characteristics of China’s rural population development in detail, we still need to define rural areas in China. The Strategy Plan for Rural Vitalisation (2018–2022) issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council of China has taken the meaning of rural areas into a new era: rural areas are regional complexes with typical natural, social and economic characteristics. They have multiple functions of production, living, ecology and culture, and they constitute the main space of human activities along with urban areas. At present, there are two types of regions in China: urban areas and rural areas (Fig. 1.5). Urban areas also have two types, namely city areas and town areas. City areas are run by neighbourhood or village committees (urban–rural integration areas) under the jurisdiction of subdistrict offices (main urban areas) in cities. Town areas are run by village committees under the jurisdiction of town (town centre areas), or they are special areas such as mining areas and factory areas. Rural areas are any areas other than these two types, including villages and other agricultural and forestry areas. There are two concepts of village in China, namely administrative villages and natural villages. Administrative villages are run by village committees, while natural villages are objective village entities. Usually, an administrative village includes multiple natural villages. Some natural villages with extremely large populations and land use scales may also be divided into multiple administrative villages, that is, a natural village may also include multiple administrative villages. A market town is a village that is recognised by the people’s government at the county level as a certain regional economic, cultural and life service centre in a rural area. It is a transitional residential area between rural and urban areas. According to the current standard of urban–rural regional division in China, a market town is also a type of rural area.

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology

19 City centre City Urban-rural fringe

Urban area

Types

Town centre Town

Town-village fringe Special area Village centre

Rural area Countryside

Fig. 1.5 Division of urban and rural areas in China

Figure 1.6 shows the rural area management system in China. Neighbourhood committees (居委会 in Chinese) and village committees (村委会 in Chinese) are grass-roots management units. Neighbourhood committees are usually in urban areas, while village committees are usually in rural areas. Neighbourhood or village committees usually have jurisdiction over hundreds to thousands of people. Although neighbourhood committees or village committees have jurisdiction over certain areas, they are not government agencies. Both neighbourhood committees and village committees are grass-roots autonomous organisations (Fig. 1.6). According to China’s constitution, China has implemented a system of grassroots mass autonomy. The village committee is a grass-roots autonomous organisation of villagers for self-management, self-education and self-service. The villager committee is composed of a director, a vice director and three to seven members. The formation of the leading group depends on democratic election by local villagers every five years. No organisation or individual may appoint or replace members of the village committee. The village party branch (村支部 in Chinese) is also an important organisation of the village. The village party branch is the branch of the Communist Party of China in the village. The leader of the village party branch is called the village party branch secretary (村支书 in Chinese). Unlike the director of the village committee, the village party branch secretary is not elected by local villagers. The village party branch secretary is usually elected by the members of the village party branch. In addition, in many cases, the village party branch secretary is appointed by the party organisation at a higher level. Both the village party branch secretary and the director of the village committee are responsible for the management of the village. However, the real leadership core of the village is the village party branch secretary. The party branch secretary is responsible for implementing the policies of the CPC and the resolutions of higher-level party organisations. Under the leadership of the secretary,

20

1 Introduction

Level

Leading core: Party branch of the CPC

Administrative organ: Government

Power organ: People's congress

County (including county-level district and county-level city)

County party branch

County government

County people's congress

Township (including zhen and xiang)

Township party branch

Township government

Township people's congress

Administrative village

Village party branch

Village committee

Villagers' congress

Natural village

Village group

grass-roots mass autonomy

Fig. 1.6 Rural area management system in China

the director of the village committee is responsible for managing the implementation of specific work in the village. The village secretary can also stand for the post of director of the village committee. In some cases, the secretary of the village party branch and the director of the village committee are the same person. The forms of land ownership in China include state ownership and collective ownership by people. According to the constitution, urban land is owned by the state, and rural land is owned by rural collectives. Rural collective-owned land includes contracted land, collective operational construction land and nonoperational construction land (Zhou et al., 2020). China’s rural collective land can enter the market as land for construction only if it is converted into state-owned land through land expropriation. Although the land belongs to the village collective, rural individuals or families have the right to use the collective land. In recent decades, new business entities such as professional farmers and family farms have begun to emerge in China, which has resulted in a demand for land circulation. Land circulation refers to the transfer of land use rights, that is, the farmers who own the contractual management right of land transfer the right of land use to other farmers or economic organisations (Wang et al., 2018). Some scholars also include small towns as a part of rural areas when they study the definition of rural areas (Liu et al., 2020). In China, there are two kinds of township, namely zhen (镇 in Chinese) and xiang (乡 in Chinese). All counties consist of several townships, including zhen and xiang. If the town is large or important, the

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology

21

administrative area will be upgraded to a zhen. Other townships are usually called xiang. Zhen is often translated into town in English in many documents on Chinese studies. In 1984, the State Council made it clear that the criteria for establishing a zhen are: (1) townships where the local governments at the county level are located; (2) townships with a total population of less than 20,000 and a non-agricultural population of more than 2000; (3) townships with a total population of more than 20,000 and a non-agricultural population proportion of over 10%; and (4) important townships with a non-agricultural population of less than 2,000 in ethnic minority areas, remote areas with a small population, mountainous areas, small industrial and mining areas, and scenic tourist areas. There are four levels of administrative division in China: province, prefecture, county and township. There is no administrative organ for rural areas, but the work of village committees is guided by township government. Small towns are closely connected with rural areas. When it comes to the relationship between small towns and rural areas in terms of region, population, economy and environment, small towns are communities composed of a group of people who are not engaged in agricultural production and labour, which have different characteristics from rural areas and maintain indispensable contact with surrounding villages (Fei, 1986). As an important spatial carrier of local urbanisation of the “three tasks concerning 100 million people”5 at the national level, small towns play an important role in narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas and improving the living standards of residents (Li et al., 2017). At the same time, as links between cities and rural areas, small towns and villages are most closely linked. Due to geographical location, regional economic development level and for other reasons, the development of towns in China varies greatly. The largest built-up area of an administrative town has a population of more than 4,00,000, while the smallest built-up area of an administrative town has a population of just over 100. On the whole, about 90% of towns have populations of less than 20,000 (Zhao, 2017). Currently, there are 657 cities with a combined population of 712 million, accounting for 52.7% of the population, and the built-up area is 40,100 km2 . In rural areas, there are 33 thousand towns, 64 thousand administrative villages and 3 million natural villages, with a combined population of 640 million people, 1,80,000 km2 of homestead and 1.8 billion mu of cultivated land (Liu, 2018).

1.2.2 Rural Transport System in China Rural transport systems generally have two parts: transport infrastructure and transport services. Transport infrastructure comprises roads (including waterways), stations (including wharves) and vehicles. Transport services comprise passenger 5

The “three tasks concerning 100 million people” refers to the proposal made by Premier Li Keqiang in his work report in 2014. The three tasks specifically were: promoting the settlement of about 100 million agricultural migrants in cities and towns, transforming the urban shanty towns and villages inhabited by about 100 million people and guiding the urbanisation of about 100 million in the central and western regions.

22

1 Introduction

services, freight services and transport management. Discussions on rural transport used to focus mainly on facilities. More recent in-depth study of rural transport has become more comprehensive, not only focusing on road infrastructure, but also considering the supply and affordability of transport services and their quality. Rural transport is not a precise academic concept. Due to different research perspectives and research foci, there are different understandings. At present, there is no recognised definition on which all scholars agree (Cao, 2014). In a narrow sense, the rural transport infrastructure in China includes rural roads, small paths, pedestrian bridges, etc., which are not classified as graded roads and bridges. They mainly serve local areas and are used for short-distance travel. These roads do not have the long-distance travel functions of primary, secondary and trunk roads. Some scholars in China believe that only rural highways fit into the category of rural transport (Chen et al., 2020). Cao (2014) proposed that the concept of generalised rural transport should include all the transport infrastructure and services within the scope of a particular rural area. As the basis of the rural transport system, rural roads include county highways, township highways and village roads, which comprise an extension and expansion of the trunk highways and a branch of the regional highway network, completing the regional road system. The location of rural roads in the national highway network is shown in Fig. 1.7. The rural road is an important part of China’s road network. It is a public transport infrastructure with a strong public welfare focus, and it has a large scale and covers a wide area. Its mileage accounts for a high proportion of the total mileage on the national road network. It connects the vast number of counties, towns and villages in China and plays an important role in rural economic and social development. In China, clear definitions of rural roads have gradually emerged since the country’s large-scale construction of rural roads in the twenty-first century. In 2003, the document issued by the State Planning Commission and the Ministry of Transport pointed out that “rural roads generally refer to roads connecting towns and administrative villages.” Order No. 4 of the Ministry of Transport of 2018 in its section on measures for the administration of rural road construction pointed out that rural roads refers to county highways, township highways, village roads and their affiliated facilities, which are included in the rural highway planning and built

Highway system

National highway

Expressway

Provincial highway

County highway

Normal national highway

Fig. 1.7 Classification of the road network in China

Township highway

Rural road

Village road

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology

23

according to the highway engineering technical standards. Rural roads also include roads that are recognised by the provincial transport department and included in the statistical annual mileage report. The definition also includes bridges, tunnels and ferries. County highways refers to main roads that have political and economic significance for the whole county and that connect the county town with other towns within the county and important commodity production centres, as well as the main intercounty roads, which are neither national highways nor provincial highways. Township highways are roads that mainly serve the internal economy and administration of townships, as well as roads that connect different towns but are not county highways. Village roads are main roads connecting different villages that directly serve the production and daily life of farmers and that are not township highways or county highways. From the point of view of technical level, Grade 1–4 highways all meet the highway technical standards issued by the Ministry of Transport, and those lower than highway standards are classified as substandard roads in statistics. Substandard roads are all recognised as rural roads. The main document on rural road planning and construction management is Order No. 4 of Ministry of Transport of 2018. It stipulates that the planning of rural roads should conform to the national economic and social development plan6 and overall land use planning.7 As mentioned above, rural roads in China include county highways, township highways and village roads. The planning of county highways is the responsibility of the competent department of transport at the county level in conjunction with the relevant departments at the same level, and it must be submitted to the government at the next higher level for approval after being examined and approved by the people’s government at the county level. The planning of township highways and village roads is the responsibility of the government at the township level with the assistance of the competent department of transport at the county level. Plans should be submitted to the people’s government at the county level for approval. Rural road investment is included in the financial budgets of local governments at the corresponding level. Investment in rural road construction is mainly government financial investment, supplemented by multi-channel fundraising. The Chinese central government also encourages the use of rural road resource development, financial support, donations and other means to raise funds for rural road construction. The design of rural roads in China must be undertaken by design units with corresponding qualifications. Preliminary design and construction drawing design are necessary for important rural road construction projects. General rural road 6

The national economic and social development plan is the overall outline of the economic and social development of the whole country or a certain region. It is a guiding document of strategic significance. The national economic and social development plan makes overall arrangements for and guides the social, economic and cultural construction of the whole country or a certain region. China compiles its national economic and social development plan every five years. 7 The overall land use plan is the overall arrangement and layout of land development, utilisation, governance and protection in space and time in a certain area according to the requirements of national socioeconomic sustainable development and local natural, economic and social conditions. It is the basis of national land use control. The overall land use plan is divided into five levels: national, provincial, municipal (prefecture), county and township.

24

1 Introduction

construction projects often use construction drawing design, and multiple projects can be carried out at the same time. The design documents for rural road construction projects must be examined and approved by the competent department of transport at or above the county level. The survey, construction and supervision of rural road projects in China is subject to a bidding process. Rural road projects are usually constructed by units with corresponding qualifications. Provided they ensure the project quality, local villagers can be organised to participate in the implementation of subgrade and ancillary facilities with low technical difficulty in general rural road construction projects under the guidance of professional technicians. If land acquisition and demolition are needed for the construction of rural roads, compensation is available in accordance with the compensation standards determined by the local government. The maintenance and management of rural roads in China is regulated by Order No. 22 of Ministry of Transport of 2015. County-level governments have the main responsibility for rural road maintenance and management, and they must establish a rural road management system in line with local reality. County-level governments are responsible for the implementation of rural highway maintenance organisations and personnel at the county, township and village levels. County-level transport departments and their highway management institutions are responsible for rural highway maintenance, including implementing various maintenance and management tasks, and guiding the maintenance and management of township highways and village roads. Rural transport service mainly covers passenger transport and freight transport, of which rural passenger transport is very important. According to the Notice on Adjusting the Oil Price Subsidy Policy for Rural Passenger Transport, Ocean Fishery, Forestry and Other Industries issued by the Ministry of Finance, rural passenger transport includes rural road passenger transport, interisland passenger transport and rural waterway passenger transport. The newly revised Regulations on Road Passenger Transport and Passenger Station Management of 2016 clearly define road passenger transport operation, which covers commercial road passenger transport activities that transport passengers by bus and provide services for the public. It includes regular bus (including overtime bus) passenger transport, charter bus passenger transport and tourism passenger transport (Fig. 1.8). At the same time, rural road passenger transport is also clearly defined as road passenger transport with at least one end in rural areas. This kind of transport can occur within the same county or across counties. The definition concludes that rural road passenger transport has five parts: village to county seat, town to county seat, town to town, village to town and village to village.

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology

25

Fig. 1.8 Rural passenger stations and vehicles in China. Source Handan Transportation Bureau. http://jtj.hd.gov.cn/zhxx/jtdtzhxx/45984.htm

1.2.3 Main Contents This book has seven main research objectives: (1) Evaluate the development of rural population and settlements in China. This book analyses the current situation and the historical development process of China’s rural population, summarises its development trend and makes a forecast. It analyses the development of rural settlements and infrastructure in China, summarises the spatial structure of regional differences, and evaluates the relationship between them and population distribution. (2) Evaluate China’s rural transport infrastructure and its matching with population. The scale of the rural road network, the scale of rural transport investment and the level of rural public transport coverage in China are evaluated in multi-scale space–time, and the spatial pattern and development problems are summarised. On this basis, this book analyses the spatial and temporal matching of rural populations. (3) Analyse the impact of rural population composition change on travel expenditure. This book evaluates the development process and regional differences in gender, age, family and educational structure of the rural population in China, and it summarises their spatial pattern. Based on the analysis of regional differences in travel expenditure of rural residents in China, this book studies the impact of population composition change on travel expenditure. (4) Analyse the traffic accessibility and spatial equity of rural settlements in China. Based on the road network and settlement distribution of rural areas in China, the accessibility of rural transport is analysed, and the county differences in rural

26

1 Introduction

accessibility are analysed. On this basis, this book evaluates the spatial equity of rural accessibility from four perspectives: intracounty equilibrium, intercounty equilibrium, accessibility and investment scale. (5) Analyse the characteristics of China’s rural regional system from the perspective of transport. Based on the frequency, purpose and travel distance of rural residents in China, this book analyses the spatial connections between rural areas, the service function level of rural settlements and the service scope of rural settlements. On this basis, this book analyses the factors influencing rural residents to go to places with high levels of service. (6) Analyse the travel characteristics of rural residents in megacity regions. Based on the big data of mobile signalling, taking the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area as a case, this book analyses the travel distance, travel frequency and travel destinations of rural residents over different journeys, and it analyses the influence mechanisms for regional differences in rural residents’ travel distances. On this basis, typical mountainous and level areas are selected to analyse the differences in rural residents’ travel behaviour characteristics. (7) Put forward rural transport development policy suggestions. Based on the analysis of the interaction between rural population development and rural transport, this book puts forward a new development concept, strategic objectives, implementation plans, guarantee means and key tasks in the near future. The technical analysis of this book involves three processes, namely fundamental evaluation, macro-analysis and micro-analysis (Fig. 1.9). The fundamental evaluation is of the spatiotemporal characteristics of China’s population and transport. The macro-analysis analyses the relationship between China’s population and transport on the national and regional scales, while the micro-analysis analyses rural transport from the perspectives of individual rural residents. The fundamental evaluation is divided into two parts: rural population and residential development evaluation, and rural transport infrastructure and its matching with population. The former is in Chap. 3, and the latter is in Chap. 4. The macro-analysis can be divided into two parts: analysis of the impact of rural population composition change on travel expenditure, and analysis of the accessibility and spatial equity of rural settlements. The former is in Chap. 5, and the latter is in Chap. 6 of this book. Micro-analysis is the analysis of rural residents’ travel characteristics and regional system characteristics, corresponding to Chaps. 7, 8 and 9 of this book. Finally, there are rural transport development policy recommendations in Chap. 10 of this book.

1.2.4 Data and Methodology 1.2.4.1

Methodology

The research methods of this book include concept analysis, regression analysis, time series analysis, kernel density analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis,

Gender

Trend

Structure

Relations hip Space

Infrastruc ture

Settlements

Age

Family

Population composition

Educa tion

Impact Proportion

Region

Intra-county equilibrium

Road network

Frequency

Purposes

Distance

National

Case

Regional Connection

Function

Settlement system

Policy suggestion on rural transport development

Travel patterns

Matching with population

Investment

Range

Inter-county equilibrium

Accessibility

Comparison with investment

Settlements

Public transport

Analysis of the accessibility and spatial equity of rural settlements

Road network

Evaluation of the rural transport infrastructure and its matching with population

Analysis of the travel patterns of rural residents and the characteristics of areal system

Scale

Difference

Transport expenditure

Analysis of the impact of population composition change on transport expenditure

Pattern

Population

Fig. 1.9 Framework of the contents

Micro analysis

Macro analysis

Fundamental evaluation

Evaluation of the development of rural population and settlements

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology 27

28

1 Introduction

Table 1.2 Methodology Chapter

Main method

3

Concept analysis, regression analysis, time series analysis, kernel density analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis, GIS visualisation

4

Zonal statistics, Boston matrix, GIS visualisation

5

Regression analysis, spatial exploratory analysis, geographic weighted regression (GWR), GIS visualisation

6

Neighbour analysis, cost–distance analysis, Gini coefficient, Boston matrix, GIS visualisation

7

Spatial exploratory analysis, coefficient of variation, regression analysis, GIS visualisation

8

Big data analysis, regression analysis, spatial exploratory analysis, GWR, GIS visualisation

9

Big data analysis, GIS visualisation

zonal statistics, Boston matrix, spatial exploratory analysis, geographically weighted regression (GWR), neighbour analysis, cost grid analysis, Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation, big data analysis and geographical information system (GIS) visualisation. The main research methods applied in each chapter are shown in Table 1.2. In Chap. 3, regression analysis and time series analysis are applied to analyse the changing trends of rural population in China. Kernel density analysis and standard deviation ellipse analysis are applied to analyse the spatial distribution of rural population and rural residential areas to identify places that do not match spatially. GIS visualisation is used to display the analysis results. In Chap. 4, zonal statistics are used to process the shapefiles of transport infrastructure, such as road networks and bus lines, and to summarise them on different spatial scales. Boston matrix is used to compare the advantages and disadvantages of cities or regions in two different dimensions to find key problems. GIS visualisation is used to display the analysis results. In Chap. 5, regression analysis is applied to analyse the impact factors of rural population composition on transport expenditure in China. Spatial exploratory analysis is applied to check whether there is spatial dependency. GWR is applied to analyse the differences in the impact factors of rural population composition in different regions. GIS visualisation is used to display the analysis results. In Chap. 6, neighbour analysis and cost–distance analysis are used to analyse the accessibility of rural settlements. Neighbour analysis is applied to calculate the Euclidean distance between rural settlements and transport facilities. Cost–distance analysis is applied to calculate the time cost for different means of transport. Gini coefficient is applied to measure the inequity of accessibility values among different regions. GIS visualisation is used to display the analysis results. In Chap. 7, spatial exploratory analysis is applied to check whether there is spatial dependency in rural residents’ travel behaviour. Coefficient of variation is applied to calculate the dispersion of data points around the mean, which indicates

1.2 Research Contents and Methodology

29

inequities. Regression analysis is applied to analyse the impact factors of villagers’ travel frequency to different levels of settlements. GIS visualisation is used to display the analysis results. In Chaps. 8 and 9, big data analysis is used to analyse the travel distance, travel frequency and travel destination choices based on mobile phone data. The analysis process is supported by Hadoop and SQL. The result is visualised by GIS.

1.2.4.2

Data

This book uses multi-source data fusion and a combination of big data and small data to give full play to the advantages of various types of data on related issues. Specifically, this book mainly uses four types of data: statistical yearbook data, questionnaire survey data, mobile phone signalling data, and GIS and remote sensing data. (1) Statistical yearbook data The statistical yearbook data for this book came from the China Statistical Yearbook, China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook, China Rural Statistical Yearbook, China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook, and China County Statistical Yearbook. To ensure the integrity of the data, some local statistical bulletins of national economic and social development were used to improve and supplement the data. Specific indicators are used in each chapter. (2) Questionnaire survey data The questionnaire survey data came from the national small town detailed survey conducted by Peking University and other universities in cooperation with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development in 2016. The survey lasted for one year and covered 121 small towns in 31 provinces (districts and cities) in China. The survey content includes questionnaire answers from town residents, villagers and enterprises. The data in this study are the responses of rural residents. Three villages were selected for each town: one near, one distant and one in between. About 10 households were randomly selected from each village to fill in the questionnaire, and 2,952 valid questionnaires were received. The rural residents’ travel information included in the questionnaire mainly includes the frequency of going to the town and the county seat, the means of transport, the time spent and the purpose of travel. (3) Mobile phone data The mobile phone data for this study came from an operator, and the data covered Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei for a week in June 2018. The data include resident data and origin–destination data. To protect the privacy of personal information, the analysis data did not involve user IDs, but summaries of time, space and user attributes. The time interval for data recording was 0.5 h, and the spatial unit of data was a 1 km grid. In this sample, according to mobile phone signals, the average daily total number of travel chain records was 70.7 million. Compared with survey data and Internet data, mobile phone signalling data has significant

30

1 Introduction

advantages in sample size, sample representativeness and granularity between time and space. It contains high-value data, and it can reveal the temporal and spatial activities of crowds more completely. (4) GIS and remote sensing data GIS and remote sensing data mainly included administrative division data, transport network data, population grid data and land use cover data. GIS data for administrative divisions at provincial, prefecture and county levels in 2019 were used as administrative division data. The GIS data for highways, national roads, provincial roads, county roads and other roads in the research year were the transport network data. The population grid data came from the resource and environment data cloud platform of Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The production mode of the data is as follows: firstly, the spatial characteristics and regional differences of population distribution in China were comprehensively analysed to carry out population division. To ensure the rationality and accuracy of the model, a multi-variate statistical population spatialisation model was established in each subregion after regionalisation, and the model was corrected by using four factors, namely urban population density, traffic conditions, digital elevation model and overall control. To verify the accuracy of population data, the regions with complete township data in typical provinces of eastern, western and central China were selected as test samples. Taking the statistical data as the true value, the relative error of spatial population data was between 4.5% and 13.6%, and the relative error of most samples was less than 10%. Finally, a kilometre grid population spatial distribution data set with unified spatial coordinate parameters, unified data format and unified metadata standard was formed. Land use data came from the geographic data platform of Peking University. The data year was 2015. The Landsat remote sensing image data was taken as the main information source, and the three-level classification of land use types was obtained through visual interpretation to establish a 1:10 scale database. The spatial unit of the data was a 30 m grid, and the land use types were classified into three levels: cultivated land; woodland, grassland, and water areas; and construction land and unused land. In this book, using land use cover data, the urban construction land and the urban industrial and mining land connected with the urban construction land space were combined and extracted as the urban entity area. Based on the data from villages and towns, the construction land within the 5 km buffer zone was taken as the town area. The rest of the grid covered areas outside the urban entity area and towns that are regarded as villages.

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Chapter 2

Research on Rural Transport

2.1 Rural Transport and Economic Development The basic theory concerning the relationship between rural transport and economic development is mainly extracted from economic theories, including classical economics, neoclassical economics, development economics, labour economics and regional economics. As early as the eighteenth century, Adam Smith, the originator of classical economics, emphasised the important role of transport in economic development in his An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (Smith, 2010). He believed that good transport conditions could open up a larger market by reducing transport costs, which would promote the division of labour and improve social productivity. In these ways, the development of transport would help a country to become rich. The theory of unbalanced growth concerns the relationship between regional infrastructure and regional economic development, which can explain rural transport development. Unlike the theory of neoclassical economics, the theory of unbalanced growth tries to explain the unbalanced development of regional economy in countries with vast territories. Myrdal’s (1974) theory of cumulative causation, Friedman’s (1983) core-periphery theory, Perroux’s (1950) growth pole theory and Hirschman’s (1958) theory of trickling-down and polarisation effects all illustrate a principle, that is, that a country’s economic growth tends to appear first in developed regions or core regions or growth poles with different intensities, and this has an attraction effect on backward regions or marginal regions or non-growth pole regions. Then, the attraction effect slowly transits to an expansion effect, and the economic differences between regions will experience a move from expansion to gradual narrowing. At the same time, through the theories of unbalanced development of regional economy, it is supposed that the government should intervene in the development of backward areas to speed up the process of poverty alleviation and to narrow the economic gap between regions. The economists who put forward these theories realised that the natural process from attraction effect to expansion effect takes a long time (Parr, 1999). Governments providing public goods and services © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_2

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should not passively wait for this change of effects to eliminate the differences in regional economic level slowly, but they should actively intervene, for example by providing infrastructure and other public goods and services for backward areas. Perroux’s growth pole theory suggests that the government should formulate policies to accelerate the expansion effect of the growth pole on the non-growth pole regions and to enhance the ability of the non-growth pole regions to accept the expansion effect, for example by providing infrastructure for the backward regions to achieve a higher minimum standard. According to Hirschman, the government must intervene in the development of the backward areas, increase public investment in the backward areas, restrain the attraction effect of the developed areas to the backward areas, and balance the regional distribution of capital and talents. Since the 1970s, scholars have continued to study the relationship between rural transport and economic development. Many different views have been continuously discussed. First of all, some scholars believe that rural transport plays a positive role in economic development. It plays a catalytic or stimulating role in economic development, and it is necessary for rural development, especially in developing countries. For example, Hine (1982) finds a positive correlation between road investment and agricultural development in his case study. Ali-Nejadfard (1999) states that rural transport is a key factor in economic and social development through a case analysis of Malawi and Zimbabwe in Africa. If there are roads in good condition to ensure the convenient concentration and movement of surplus agricultural products to the market, it is widely believed that roads can catalyse rural development. Leinbach (1995) believes that rural transport plays a stimulating role in rural development. Olsson (2009) focuses on rural fishing communities in the Philippines, with backward transport conditions and poor accessibility to major markets. The benefits of local rural road infrastructure improvement are enormous. In addition to a wide range of direct effects, such as reducing travel time, reducing fuel and maintenance costs and avoiding delivery delays, it also brings indirect effects, such as the possibility of obtaining sufficient resources, the opportunity of increasing production and the potential for technological innovation. Seedhouse et al. (2016) found that entrepreneurs in rural Nigeria generally believed that a bad transport situation would have a negative impact on the success of their businesses by affecting their ability to recruit employees, service customers and deliver goods. They believed that it is necessary to improve rural transport to meet the needs of entrepreneurs. Secondly, other researchers believe that the impact of rural road investment on the economy and daily life of rural residents is limited (Guimarães & Uhl, 1997; Howe, 1997; McCall, 1985). In their opinion, the travel behaviour of rural residents is largely limited to family tasks, such as carrying water from wells and picking firewood from forests. Generally speaking, these travel behaviours are walking along paths that deviate from the main roads, so they do not play a significant role in local development. For instance, Guimarães and Uhl (1997) pointed out that improving and intensifying existing transport networks rather than building an extensive system of roads is more meaningful in rural areas. Some scholars even find that transport infrastructure can have a negative effect on rural development. Haskins (2002) shows that a high-density network has a negative impact on employment in rural areas. He

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concludes that accessibility is necessary to some extent, but that too many rural roads will harm the development of the area. The results of his model show that when reaching a turning point, increasing roads may reduce employment. Thirdly, some scholars have proposed that the impact of rural transport on the economy varies over time. Rural transport for development is a gradual weakening process, that is, when the rural development is in the initial stage, the construction of rural transport will improve its liquidity. In this opinion, the impact of rural transport on rural development in the initial period is greater than when the rural development reaches a relatively mature stage. Specifically, in the early stage of economic development, rural transport promotes the development of the economy, and when the economic development reaches a plateau, the economy promotes the development of rural transport. At the same time, the role of transport in economic development is different in different periods. Gaegler et al. (1979) found that the short-term and long-term effects of interstate highways are different in different periods by analysing data collected from 1965 to 1978. In addition, Cromley and Leinbach (1981) studied the State of Kentucky in the United States in 1970–1975 and 1975–1980, and they showed that the impact of transport on employment was different in different periods. González-González and Nogués (2019) studied the impact of transport infrastructure on local development in northwest Spain in 1991, 2001 and 2011. They found that a large number of infrastructure construction projects increased the accessibility gap between urban and rural areas from 1991 to 2001, but that the improvement in the rural road network balanced this gap between 2001 and 2010, giving urban and rural residents more equal access to basic services, commodities and life opportunities. However, the impact of rural transport infrastructure was not enough to reverse the lag inertia and the disadvantage of rural areas relative to the city.

2.2 Rural Transport, Social Equity and Poverty Relief With the deepening of rural transport research, researchers not only pay attention to its impact on the economy, but also increasingly realise the importance of its social aspects. The research on the impact of rural transport on society mainly focuses on how to achieve social equity and reduce poverty. Social equity includes and is closely related to social exclusion (Liddle et al., 2012). Social exclusion is the cumulative marginalisation from production (unemployment), consumption (low-income level), social networks (family, neighbourhood, community) decision-making and inadequate quality of life (McDonagh, 2006). Some social members cannot participate in a series of daily social activities, including employment, education and leisure, because they are separated from routine activities in social life and work (Mahapa & Mashiri, 2001). Rural areas, especially those far away from main roads, are often isolated, even marginalised and neglected due to their poor economy, poor transport accessibility and inconvenient external contact, resulting in a degree of social exclusion (Porter, 2002). Rural poor people have few travel choices. When the policy of curbing emissions increases travel

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cost, poor people in rural areas often raise objections (Boardman, 1998). An adequate and efficient transport system is considered a guarantee for people to integrate into broader social and economic life. Then, enhancement of rural transport infrastructure improves residents’ access to employment and information, which ensures social integration. In this way, everyone has the opportunity to realise their rights. However, the impact of rural transport policy on social equity is controversial. Some scholars believe that the availability of rural transport is a necessary condition to alleviate the exclusion of rural areas (Lebo & Schelling, 2001). Farrington and Farrington (2005) believe that accessibility, as a major policy element, can affect the distribution of interests and responsibilities, and it can improve social equity. Other scholars believe that if the transport policy is poor, it will worsen social exclusion in rural areas. Taking the Irish Republic as an example, McDonagh (2006) found that inappropriate transport policies have a negative impact on local rural development policies, which not only can alleviate rural disadvantages, but also can worsen rural social exclusion. The lack of an integration policy concept can worsen adverse rural development in some cases. Therefore, more scholars believe that when formulating transport policies, we should consider the differences between urban and rural demand characteristics and socioeconomic conditions and make more reasonable choices in accordance with public opinion and sustainable development. Many people in developing countries live in poverty, which is reflected in some basic indicators of access to basic services. Vasconcellos (1997) found that Brazilian rural children do not have access to elementary schooling because of the lack of public transport within rural areas and from rural to urban areas. Howe et al. (2019) took Egypt, India, Botswana and Thailand as examples and explored the relationship between rural transport and poverty relief. Their research shows that real rural income growth comes from the growth of the non-agricultural economy and that road investment can create conditions to help the poor in multiple ways. One of the most important ways to get through poverty is to improve the rural non-agricultural economy. Improving rural transport infrastructure can produce opportunities for economic growth and poverty relief through a series of mechanisms. Roads reduce the transport costs and the production and consumption costs of goods and services. As it is more convenient to reach market and technology centres by increasing the availability of relevant inputs and reducing the input costs after road improvement, agricultural and non-agricultural production is expanded, and the number of township enterprises is increased. If the impact on families is considered, road development generates higher productivity and labour demand, as well as higher levels of accessibility to education and health, including that of females. It is widely agreed that rural roads have considerable positive impacts on poverty (Sieber & Allen, 2016). However, there are group differences in the role of rural transport construction in poverty relief. The ability of the poor to derive economic benefits from the use of roads depends on their asset base and their entitlements to resources and opportunities. For example, Khandker et al. (2009) found that rural road investment plays an important role in poverty relief through a case study of Bangladesh, but the role of transport for different groups was different. Those who

2.3 Rural Transport, Land Use and Public Facilities Accessibility

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were previously poor benefited much more from improvements in rural transport conditions than those who were not poor.

2.3 Rural Transport, Land Use and Public Facilities Accessibility At present, the research on the interaction between transport and land use is mainly focussed on regional transport and urban transport, but less on rural transport and rural land use. The relationship between rural transport and land use is often explained by the concept of accessibility (Halden, 2002). Accessibility, as measured by the distance or travelling time from the destination, for instance, is one of the most important driving factors of land use change and rural development (Nagendra et al., 2003). It can affect the degree and location of land use change, as well as regional organisation and change. Therefore, it is often used as a policy basis for transport and land use planning (Vandenbulcke et al., 2009). Castella et al. (2005) believed that the location of villages relative to the national road network is related to the patterns of land use and village development potential. They linked the objective indicators of physical accessibility with rural land use change, and they evaluated the impact and contribution of accessibility to land use change. Castella and Ð˘a.ng (2002) believed that after the new road construction in mountainous areas, land use change and local agricultural development opportunities are determined not only by the availability of natural resources in villages, but also by the accessibility of rural communities to markets, medical sites and schools. The impact of interregional transport facilities on land use in rural areas is an important research topic. Due to the small scale of concentrated villages or towns in rural areas of China, and the single external connection channel in most villages or towns, interregional transport is an important part of the transport system in rural areas, which has a great impact on the land use layout, spatial form and road network structure of small towns. For instance, Zhang et al. (2013) studied the impacts of transport arteries on land use patterns in the urban–rural fringe via a case study in Nanjing. They found a causal relationship between the presence of transport arteries and land use change on the urban–rural fringe, which varies across different types of transport infrastructure. They also found that railways have a more obvious influence on land use change than expressways. Zeng et al. (2020) pointed out that the spatial spill-over effect of the road network could be strengthened in urban–rural interface areas by improving accessibility and promoting population, resource and technology flows in their case study of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area. The most commonly used accessibility measurement methods can be roughly divided into two kinds. One is based on infrastructure and location. The other is based on individual and utility measures, which are more suitable for social and economic assessment (Bertolini et al., 2005; Geurs & Van Wee, 2004; Van der Ploeg, 1997). When studying the accessibility of rural areas, scholars mainly

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explore whether the transport supply can meet the different types of travel demand through the accessibility of various types of transport facilities. Different scholars use different accessibility measures. Some researchers focus on location-based measurement (Athanasenas, 1997; González-González & Nogués, 2019; Mohíno et al., 2016; Parolin et al., 1994). There are also studies based on individual measurement (Halden, 2002; Smith et al., 2012; Velaga et al. 2012; Ahern & Hine, 2015). Research on rural areas tends to be based on individual accessibility measurements. These studies also discussed rural residents’ travel behaviour. For example, Halden (2002) evaluated the accessibility and connectivity of Scotland in the form of road travel time to different facilities, such as hospitals and shopping centres, in each community. Smith et al. (2012) analysed the accessibility of different groups of people in different kinds of villages by measuring the minimum cost of various types of life travel, such as going to work, going to school, buying food, attending social and cultural activities and seeking medical care. Ahern and Hine (2015) used qualitative research to explain the accessibility of medical services for older people, which is relatively rare in urban research. Chinese geographers have done plenty of research on the accessibility of the road network, but most of them have focussed on economically developed areas. In addition, the research scale is mainly at the national, regional and urban levels, and research on the road network in rural areas is relatively rare. These studies mainly use the facility-based accessibility evaluation methods mentioned before (Cao, 2014; Cao et al., 2005). For rural areas in China, there are few studies on individual-based accessibility. The current evaluation method is generally based on the road network itself, using road density (Cao, 2014; Zhu et al., 2015), network analysis (Pan & Cao, 2010; Yan et al., 2013), grid-based cost distance (Zhu et al., 2015) or a comprehensive accessibility index constructed by researchers independently and originally. Cao (2014) used road density and accessibility, including convenience, remoteness and isolation, to evaluate rural roads in China and Guangdong Province, analysing the rural accessibility in Guangdong Province and its relationship with rural economic development and land use. Cao found that the regional differences in the national road network density are obvious and change greatly with time. Pan and Cao (2010) studied the accessibility level of the rural road network in 12 towns of Lianzhou in Guangdong by using three indicators: the road network connectivity index, the accessibility index and the average distance between rural road network and national or provincial highway. They found that the connectivity of the road network in Lianzhou is low, the layout is imperfect, and there are obvious directional patterns to trunk roads. The accessibility level of the road network is not high, and the convenience of the internal connection of the villages and towns is generally low. The spatial pattern is a concentric circle. The connection between the rural road network and the trunk road network is good. The accessibility level of the rural road network is affected by regional area, terrain, economy, node layout, road construction and other factors.

2.4 Travel Demand and Behaviour of Rural Residents

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2.4 Travel Demand and Behaviour of Rural Residents Research on rural residents’ travel behaviour mainly started in Europe. The UK and the EU have focussed on rural travel behaviour due to their emphasis on rural poverty. The Rural Development Commission (RDC) proposed that the causes of rural poverty are inaccessibility, unemployment, poor local public services, dependence on cars and reductions in and lack of public transport (Shucksmith et al., 1996). Shaw (1979) believed that the lack of opportunities to get jobs and services and the lack of mobility of some groups, making it difficult to get jobs, services and facilities, are the key factors causing rural poverty. In the city, the poor and the rich can be clearly reflected in space, but in rural areas, the boundary is very vague (Chapman & Shucksmith, 1996). Shucksmith et al. (1996) considered it necessary to combine an aggregate model and a disaggregate model. The aggregate model is applied to the overall policy, and the disaggregate model is targeted on specific rural local characteristics. Later, scholars explored the use of census data for aggregate analysis (Higgs & White, 2000), although the variables related to transport in census data are limited to a few indicators such as car ownership and commuting travel. Many scholars who are interested in rural transport are more inclined to get more comprehensive travel patterns through rural questionnaire surveys. For example, the data for several earlier studies on rural residents’ travel behaviour came from questionnaires conducted in the rural Antrim area of northern Ireland from 1979 to 2000 (Nutley, 2005; Nutley & Thomas, 1992). In the United States, although rural residents’ travel behaviour has not been the focus of scholars’ attention for a long time, the national household travel survey provides strong data support for study in this field. For example, Pucher and Renne (2005) analysed the travel patterns of rural residents by using the data of the US national household travel survey for 2001, and compared them with the travel patterns of city residents. At the same time, the research methods and technical experience of urban travel survey and travel research in the United States also promoted research on rural residents’ travel. In recent decades, with the strengthening of urban–rural ties, scholars have begun to pay more attention to rural residents’ travel behaviour, the travel survey data have become more abundant, and the methods for description of travel behaviour have also begun to innovate, such as making wider use of econometric models (Hough et al., 2008; Sandow, 2008), the application of GIS and other new technologies (Hine et al., 2012) and the qualitative research method of sociology (Porter et al., 2011; Shergold & Parkhurst, 2010). At the same time, the anthropological and sociological observation of rural residents’ travel behaviour has never stopped (Porter et al., 2011; Shergold & Parkhurst, 2010), which accounts for almost half the existing literature. These studies provide effective methodologies and empirical experience for the study of rural residents’ travel behaviour and transport equity in rural areas all over the world.

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2.5 The Relationship Between Rural Transport and Population Many rural geographers believe that different social groups have their own special rules for transport. Research generally focuses on vulnerable groups in rural areas, such as the disabled, older people, youth, females and low-income people. These people often have few available transport resources, and it is difficult or takes a long time for them to obtain living materials and public services. They tend to earn very low incomes, have no cars or have difficulty in using any type of vehicle for physical reasons (Nutley, 2005). Scholars generally believe that vulnerable groups in rural areas are suffering from a lack of mobility along with health, economy, employment and even social isolation (Plazini´c & Jovi´c, 2018). The existing research focuses on vulnerable groups as a whole (Chung, 2002; Kamruzzaman & Hine, 2011, 2012) or studies a specific type of population, such as older people, females, teenagers with driving licences (Porter et al., 2011), people with physical disabilities (Stern, 1993), low-income people (Owen et al., 2012; Velaga et al. 2012) or people without cars (Nutley, 1996, 2005).

2.5.1 Rural Ageing and Transport Some studies on rural transport and public policy emphasise the discussion of travel behaviour and mobility of older people as a key indicator of the quality of life and avoiding social exclusion. Especially in the past decade, there have been more studies concentrated in European countries such as the UK. Because of the special life experience and the stage of older people, more attention should be paid to their physical condition, the satisfaction of their basic needs, their way of life and their state of mind (Kolodinsky et al., 2013; Shergold & Parkhurst, 2010). First of all, compared with young people, older people have more leisure time, but they often limit their trips to near their residence for physical reasons. Some scholars even think that older people generally do not travel long distances, at least not out of town (Nutley, 2005), and their proportion of local activities is high (Kolodinsky et al., 2013; Porter et al., 2013; Powe & Shaw, 2004; Shergold & Parkhurst, 2010). Secondly, compared with urban areas, in rural areas, especially in remote areas, older people often face more travel barriers to obtaining the basic necessities of life, such as medical services, which has a great impact on their health and welfare (Ahern & Hine, 2012; De Koning et al., 2015; Guell et al., 2016; Manthorpe et al., 2004; Ward et al., 2013). In rural areas, it is often a long walk to get to transport sites, especially when the route crosses rugged terrain. When it rains, the roads in some rural areas can become very muddy, which is likely to cause serious travel obstacles, so that older people cannot take the risk of going out (Porter et al., 2013), or can only rely on cars to travel. However, the car ownership rate among rural older people is relatively low. Besides, many rural older people do not have driving licences and are

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not allowed to drive in their physical condition (Shergold & Parkhurst, 2010). Cutler (1975) found that the number of unmet travel needs of older people without cars is 2.5 times as high as the corresponding figure for those with cars. Thirdly, low income and poverty may restrict the travel of the older people, especially those without comprehensive social security and family support (Giesel & Köhler, 2015). In many rural areas, poor older people still need to obtain a secure livelihood to support themselves, which is quite difficult for rural people. Agricultural income is heavily dependent on climate conditions, while non-agricultural work often requires longer travel distances. Researchers have observed that in specific povertystricken areas, such as some areas in Africa, the spread of HIV/AIDS has caused many young people to die, leaving older people to take care of their orphans (Porter et al., 2013). Fourthly, older people have more psychological needs and are eager for social interaction and identity, or in other words, displays of independent ability. Scholars believe that a wide range of activities, including religious activities, social clubs and community activities, enable older people to express and enjoy their identities and bring happiness and meaning to their lives. Therefore, older people have a special dependence on daily trips (Ahern & Hine, 2012, 2015; Ziegler & Schwanen, 2011). On the one hand, cars provide older people with more convenient social travel conditions than other modes of transport. More importantly, cars often represent an identity: driving independence or avoiding dependence on family or friends (Ziegler & Schwanen, 2011). Conversely, no longer driving means losing this ability, which is unacceptable for some older people, especially for males. Ziegler and Schwanen (2011) interviewed a 70-year-old female in their study. She said that she was not unwilling to go to other villages, but she did not want to go in a wheelchair. In their study, we see the stubbornness and struggling of the older people in rural areas.

2.5.2 Rural Youth and Transport Research on youth travel behaviour mainly focuses on going to school and the differences between males’ and females’ travel behaviour. The research covers rural areas around big cities, remote villages in Europe and remote villages in Africa (Burgmanis, 2012; Porter et al., 2011). In the United States, almost all rural families have cars. The only car-free people are too old or too young to have driving licences and the disabled. Young people cannot get driving licences due to age restrictions, which can be a travel obstacle (Nutley, 1996). In other countries that are not fully motorised, young people often do not own cars. Studies have found that in remote rural areas of Canada, due to the low density of schools, students often need to travel long distances and for long periods to get to school, so the travel distances and times of rural students are higher than those in urban areas (Spinney & Millward, 2011). Porter et al. (2011) studied the impact of traffic problems on the trips of minors aged between 9 and 18 in rural areas of Ghana, and they found that family labour led to time and space obstacles for children’s trips. Female youths, in particular, often

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take on heavy household chores such as collecting water, firewood and agricultural products. In addition, the long distance to school and the lack of cheap, formal and reliable transport have a great impact on the attendance and drop-out rate of minors, especially females. For rural areas around urban agglomerations, Burgmanis (2012) analysed children’s travel modes from rural areas to Riga by investigating children’s trips to and from eight secondary schools in Riga, the capital of Latvia. Burgmanis found that the suburbanisation of urban agglomerations and insufficient public transport services affected children’s choice of transport mode. Distance to school and family driving habits have the greatest impact on travel mode. With the increase of distance from home and the frequency of parents using cars, children are encouraged to choose cars to go to school. Other scholars have studied the daily trips of adult college students in rural areas (Delmelle & Delmelle, 2012; Limanond et al., 2011). By analysing the travel patterns of 130 college students in Thailand, Limanond et al. (2011) found that owning a private car does not affect the generation of students’ daily trips, and nor does it affect the total distance of students’ trips, but has an impact on students’ travel modes. Students with cars mainly rely on driving, while those without cars generally rely on taking a taxi or hitchhiking, driving friends’ cars or taking the bus. Delmelle and Delmelle (2012) studied the travel mode choices of students at the University of Idaho, and they found that students commute mainly by walking and driving. Travel choice is more sensitive to cost, and low parking fees encourage travelling by cars. Students are more likely to choose to drive in winter. Females tend to choose to drive to school all year, while males may change their mode of transport.

2.5.3 Rural Females and Transport Female mobility is an important topic in the study of travel behaviour and transport equity. Females in rural areas have a large number of unmet travel needs, such as low frequency of shopping, lack of time and experience to participate in physical exercise and lack of entertainment and social activities, which can lead to a lack of participation in social networks and even more serious social isolation (Yoshimoto & Kawata, 1996). Firstly, some studies on developing countries show that females are at a disadvantage in obtaining productive tools and accessing social activities, which is related to females’ social status and cultural heritage. In rural South Africa, for example, females usually undertake almost all the housework, including caring for their children, carrying water and collecting firewood, and farming in their families, while females also tend to be more engaged in informal sector activities (Mahapa & Mashiri, 2001). Their wages are not high, and their social status is very low. Females in rural areas, with limited time and energy, have little chance of going out, and they try to travel locally and to avoid the transport costs of long-distance travel. Therefore, scholars believe that females face more transport burdens than males (Plazini´c & Jovi´c, 2014). Secondly, scholars believe that females’ position in the family also

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affects their mobility. For example, females have weak discourse power over using family vehicles, so even in families with cars, females may be subject to travel restrictions (Nutley, 2005). Thirdly, Porter et al. (2011) believe that natural physical weakness and physical changes such as pregnancy and postpartum periods also affect females’ travel ability. Their study found that females’ travel behaviour is limited in space and time. As discussed earlier in the study, females are less likely to travel far away from home, especially at night (Hine et al., 2012). Sandow (2008) studied the travel behaviour in remote areas of northern Sweden and found that the female commute distance is generally lower than that of males. After having children, the commuting distance of females becomes even shorter. Although males also shorten their commuting distances due to the presence of children, they have a greater impact on females.

2.5.4 Rural Occupation and Transport The spatial mobility of consumers is strongly related to income level and occupation type, which is the main factor influencing rural travel behaviour. Research shows that high-income groups have a higher car ownership ratio and ability to pay (Nutley, 1996, 2005). Hine et al. (2012) found that compared with people with cars, people without cars tend to take buses, hitchhikes and walks more frequently. They are less involved in recreational activities. They are more likely to travel locally, and their travel distance is significantly shorter. In areas where goods and services are not easily available, it is obvious that non-car owners cannot fully participate in social activities due to their lack of mobility. Hine et al. (2012) and Nutley (1996) believe that higher income levels and car ownership rates enable individuals to travel longer distances and find jobs in more distant places. By contrast, individuals with lower incomes, such as renters, unemployed people with lower car ownership and people living in areas with lower employment opportunities, have fewer employment opportunities due to this financial constraint (Hine et al., 2012; Nutley, 1996). Low-income groups or car-free people are frequently concerned about the cost of using public transport services, and they believe that preferential fares for older people can stimulate their demand for public transport. In addition to income level, the nature and location of work also affect residents’ trips. Most farmers and local service providers work near their homes, and their commuting distances are very short (Dada & Abiola, 2010). For farmers who go out to work or do odd jobs, the workplace is outside the township. As a result, travel distances are longer, and the travel mode may be different due to the traffic conditions in different areas. At the same time, the workplace not only affects commuting, but also affects the choice of other travel behaviours. For example, on shopping trips, scholars believe that when consumers get close to the shopping centre for some other reason, they will tend to engage in shopping. For instance, going out to work and commuting is an important reason to encourage people to go shopping out of town (Findlay & Sparks, 2008).

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2.5.5 Rural Family Situation and Transport Family situation, including family size, family structure and family life cycle, is also an important factor in residents’ travel behaviour. Especially when there are children and older people in the family, residents tend to choose shopping locally and avoid shopping out of town (Miller & Kean, 1997). First of all, family size has an impact on the trips of rural residents. For example, when there are cars in the family, but the family is large, the travel demand can exceed the family car service capacity. Nutley (1996) believes that the family size in rural areas often offsets the travel convenience brought by cars. This is also the reason why the UK performs statistical analysis on the ownership of rural cars, looking at multiple indicators such as per-household ownership and per-capita ownership. Secondly, the family structure has a great impact on rural residents. In research on this field, marriage, the presence of children and living with older people are generally taken as indicators (Choudhary & Vasudevan, 2017). When studying the differences in car ownership between urban and rural areas in India, Choudhary and Vasudevan (2017) found that when there are older people and children in the family, rural families are encouraged to buy cars, but this tendency is lower than that in the city. They found that when children appear in rural families, the proportion of parents’ activities in town increases, and the influence on the travel behaviour of mothers is greater than it is on fathers. Ao et al. (2019) found that in Chinese rural families, the more children under 18 years old there are, the more willing families are to buy a car, which also has an incentive effect on buying two or more cars. These findings are consistent with the findings of studies on travel behaviours in urban areas (Li & Zhao, 2017).

2.6 Summary: Gaps and Future Agenda Reviewing previous studies, we see that rural transport is an interdisciplinary research topic. Previous studies on this topic have come from sociology, economics, geography, transport engineering, public affairs and other disciplines. This is understandable, since rural transport itself is a comprehensive social problem involving many stakeholders and influencing factors. In general, rural transport research includes at least the following research focuses and conclusions. Firstly, the development of rural transport can promote the development of the rural economy by improving the convenience of interregional communication. However, the effect of this promotion is different in different regions, and it also varies with time. Secondly, rural transport development has positive effects on the mitigation of social exclusion. It can provide more opportunities for rural poor people to participate in social activities. Poverty relief is another beneficial effect of rural transport policy. Thirdly, as in urban areas, there is an interactive relationship between rural transport and rural land use.

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As there are relatively few public service facilities in rural areas, transport conditions play a vital role in residents’ access to medical, education and other services. Fourthly, rural residents have unique travel demands, and their travel behaviour is affected by various environmental factors and demographic factors. For instance, some vulnerable groups, such as older people, females and low-income people, tend to be disadvantaged when travelling in rural areas. Because of the diversity of rural transport research topics, there is also diversity in the data and methods employed by researchers in this area. Qualitative research and quantitative research are both frequent methods of rural transport research. Data from previous studies can be roughly divided into statistical data, survey data and transport facility data. Statistics are usually produced by government departments. Such data often include statistics on the basic situation of villages, as well as statistics on rural population attributes. However, because rural residents are scattered, the indicators of statistical data are limited. In many cases, statistical data cannot fully meet research needs. Especially in some highly underdeveloped countries, the statistics available from government departments are extremely limited. Therefore, many researchers have carried out surveys on rural residents, including questionnaires and interviews. Studies based on survey data can be more targeted to solve specific rural transport problems. Participant observation is a common method in many qualitative studies on rural transport. In addition, data on transport facilities and services, such as bus routes and departure intervals, are often used in accessibility studies. Although previous research on rural transport has been relatively rich, there are still some research gaps in this field. Firstly, previous rural transport studies mainly focus on two kinds of regions. One is case studies from Western developed countries, including western Europe and North America. The other is case studies from some extremely underdeveloped regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa. Compared with these two kinds of regions, China has a strong particularity, but the relevant research is still insufficient. Secondly, the impact of rural transport infrastructure and services on rural development remains unclear. As mentioned before, the impact of rural transport development may be different in different regions, at different scales and at different times. So far, no consensus has been reached. Thirdly, rural transport research has not developed a complete theoretical system. Most of the research in this field is empirical research, but the theoretical construction is insufficient. Scholars from different disciplines have introduced many theories from other disciplines into the study of rural transport, but it seems that they have not established a systematic theory for rural transport itself. Fourthly, most previous rural transport studies are small sample case studies, which usually reflect the problems and laws of specific rural areas. Thus, there are few studies to reveal the characteristics and laws of rural transport in large scale. The lack of such studies is largely due to the difficulty of obtaining data. Compared with urban areas, it is more difficult to obtain data on travel and transport facilities in rural areas. This includes both the lack of government statistics and the high labour and time costs of conducting large-scale surveys. Currently, research on rural transport in China is still rare. A few studies have outlined the relationship between rural transport and rural development in China (Gong, 2020; Wang & Sun, 2016). In addition, representative studies on China’s rural

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transport mainly focus on rural road investment, mobility and accessibility. In terms of rural mobility and travel behaviour, the differences in mobility of different groups (Liu et al., 2019a, b; Zhao & Yu, 2020), factors of mobility (Yu & Zhao, 2021) and the relationship between mobility and poverty (Zhao & Yu, 2021) have been studied in recent years. In terms of rural accessibility, previous studies mainly focussed on the accessibility of public facilities in rural areas, such as medical facilities (Liu et al., 2019a, b) and care facilities (Yu et al., 2021). In general, the study of rural transport in China is still in the ascendant, and there are still many aspects that need further expansion. Firstly, a nationwide overview study needs to be carried out to reveal the pattern of rural transport in China over the past few decades. This can help us to understand the overall picture of rural transport in China. Secondly, the relationship between the trend of population transformation and rural transport in China remains to be discussed. In the past, China has witnessed the largest family planning policy and the largest rural-to-urban migration in human history. The size and composition of China’s rural population are undergoing tremendous and rapid changes. Thirdly, big data analysis has not been introduced to rural transport research. At present, with the rapid development of ICT technology, big data is being more and more widely used in urban traffic research. However, rural transport research still generally relies on survey data or statistical data. More multi-source data can be used to test the patterns and laws of rural transport. Research on China’s rural transformation and transport can fill the gaps in previous studies and provide new knowledge for the world. On the one hand, China’s rural transformation can be different from that of Western countries. China is a socialist country with a unique political system, in which the government plays a vital role in national and regional development. Compared with Western countries, China’s rural development is not only affected by market mechanisms, but may also be more strongly affected by policy and investment. The study of rural transport in China can provide the world with more stories under the background of different political systems. China is also at a special stage of development. China promotes rural poverty alleviation through mandatory measures. However, China’s overall development level is still far behind that of developed countries. The role of rural transport in China’s development stage needs further investigation. Western countries can also get more policy material from the characteristics of China’s rural transport development. These different development processes may provide a broader vision for the vitalisation of rural areas globally. On the other hand, the development of rural transport in China is also very different from that in extremely poor countries. China has many successful experiences in rural transformation and transport development. China was one of the poorest rural countries in the world in the middle of the last century. In the process of rural poverty alleviation in China, the role of transport development and its interaction with other factors can provide experience and lessons for developing countries, which is of great significance to alleviate the rural poverty of humankind.

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Porter, G. (2002). Living in a walking world: Rural mobility and social equity issues in sub-Saharan Africa. World Development, 30(2), 285–300. Porter, G., Hampshire, K., Abane, A., et al. (2011). Mobility, education and livelihood trajectories for young people in rural Ghana: A gender perspective. Children’s Geographies, 9(3–4), 395–410. Porter, G., Tewodros, A., Bifandimu, F., et al. (2013). Transport and mobility constraints in an aging population: Health and livelihood implications in rural Tanzania. Journal of Transport Geography, 30, 161–169. Powe, N. A., & Shaw, T. (2004). Exploring the current and future role of market towns in servicing their hinterlands: A case study of Alnwick in the North East of England. Journal of Rural Studies, 20(4), 405–418. Pucher, J., & Renne, J. L. (2005). Rural mobility and mode choice: Evidence from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey. Transportation, 32(2), 165–186. Sandow, E. (2008). Commuting behaviour in sparsely populated areas: Evidence from northern Sweden. Journal of Transport Geography, 16(1), 14–27. Seedhouse, A., Johnson, R., & Newbery, R. (2016). Potholes and pitfalls: The impact of rural transport on female entrepreneurs in Nigeria. Journal of Transport Geography, 54, 140–147. Shaw, R. P. (1979). A note on shifts in parity, poverty, and sources of farm family income in North America. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 27(4), 645–652. Shergold, I., & Parkhurst, G. (2010). Operationalising ‘sustainable mobility’: The case of transport policy for older citizens in rural areas. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(2), 336–339. Shucksmith, M., Roberts, D., Scott, D., & et al. (1996). Disadvantage in rural areas. Rural Research Report-Rural Development Commission. Sieber, N., & Allen, H. (2016). Impacts of rural roads on poverty and equity. Transport and Communications Bulletin for Asia and the Pacific, 86, 23–40. Smith, A. (2010). The wealth of nations: An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations, Harriman House. Smith, N., Hirsch, D., & Davis, A. (2012). Accessibility and capability: The minimum transport needs and costs of rural households. Journal of Transport Geography, 21, 93–101. Spinney, J. E., & Millward, H. (2011). School travel mode choice and characteristics of the children, school and neighborhood. Children Youth and Environments, 21(2), 57–76. Stern, S. (1993). A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 27(4), 315–327. Van der Ploeg, J. D. (1997). On rurality, rural development and rural sociology. Images and realities of rural life. Wageningen perspectives on rural transformations (pp. 39–73). Van Gorcum. Vandenbulcke, G., Steenberghen, T., & Thomas, I. (2009). Mapping accessibility in Belgium: A tool for land-use and transport planning? Journal of Transport Geography, 17(1), 39–53. Vasconcellos, E. A. (1997). Rural transport and access to education in developing countries: Policy issues. Journal of Transport Geography, 5(2), 127–136. Velaga, N. R., Beecroft, M., Nelson, J. D., et al. (2012). Transport poverty meets the digital divide: Accessibility and connectivity in rural communities. Journal of Transport Geography, 21, 102– 112. Wang, Z., & Sun, S. (2016). Transportation infrastructure and rural development in China. China Agricultural Economic Review, 8(3), 516–525. Ward, M. R., Somerville, P., & Bosworth, G. (2013). ‘Now without my car I don’t know what I’d do’: The transportation needs of older people in rural Lincolnshire. Local Economy, 28(6), 553–566. Yan, F., Zhang, S., WEI, C., & et al. (2013). Optimization of the rural road system in the economic hinterland of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and its network analysis. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 35(1), 128–137. (in Chinese) Yoshimoto, T., & Kawata, C. (1996). Negative effect of perceived transportation problems on social activities of elderly people living in a small town far from the nearest train station. Nihon Ronen Igakkai zasshi. Japanese Journal of Geriatrics, 33(12), 928–934.

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Yu, Y., Wu, Y., Xu, X., et al. (2021). Spatial disparities and correlated variables of community care facility accessibility in rural areas of China. Sustainability, 13(23), 13400. Yu, Z., & Zhao, P. (2021). The factors in residents’ mobility in rural towns of China: Car ownership, road infrastructure and public transport services. Journal of Transport Geography, 91, 102950. Zeng, C., Zhao, Z., Wen, C., et al. (2020). Effect of complex road networks on intensive land use in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Land, 9(12), 532. Zhang, R., Pu, L., & Zhu, M. (2013). Impacts of transportation arteries on land use patterns in urbanrural fringe: A comparative gradient analysis of Qixia District, Nanjing City, China. Chinese Geographical Science, 23(3), 378–388. Zhao, P., & Yu, Z. (2020). Investigating mobility in rural areas of China: Features, equity, and factors. Transport Policy, 94, 66–77. Zhao, P., & Yu, Z. (2021). Rural poverty and mobility in China: A national-level survey. Journal of Transport Geography, 93, 103083. Zhu, B., Yin, X., & Zhang, X. (2015). Spatial pattern and accessibility of rural settlements—A case study on Sheyang County in Jiangsu Province. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 35(12), 1560–1567. (in Chinese). Ziegler, F., & Schwanen, T. (2011). ‘I like to go out to be energised by different people’: An exploratory analysis of mobility and wellbeing in later life. Ageing and Society, 31(5), 758–781.

Chapter 3

Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements

3.1 Population Transition in Rural China 3.1.1 Decrease in the Rural Population In recent decades, China has transitioned from the largest agricultural country in the world to an urban country (Guan et al., 2018). The total rural population in China is large, but it is showing a gradual downward trend. At the beginning of this century, China’s rural population totalled 808 million, accounting for 63.78% of the total population. However, the rural population in China is showing a continuous downward trend in both quantity and proportion (Fig. 3.1). By 2020, China’s rural population had dropped to about 509 million, accounting for 36.11% of the total population. The outflow of rural labour force in China is very prominent. Since the beginning of this century, the rural population has kept going down, reducing by 298 million. The migration of the rural labour force will accelerate the decline of rural areas and accelerate changes in rural settlements and production mode. The decline in China’s rural population size is being caused by urbanisation and the decline of the natural population growth rate (Fig. 3.2). In the past few decades, China has experienced rapid urbanisation, with a large number of rural surplus young and middle-aged workers entering cities and towns (Knight et al., 2011), and the urbanisation rate has increased by about 20% in 20 years. In addition, the natural growth rate of China’s population is also declining. Since the implementation of the one-child policy, China’s birth rate has dropped significantly (Short & Fengying, 1998). With the rapid development of the social economy, the cost of raising children is gradually increasing, and people’s willingness to have children is also declining, which is leading to a continuous decline of the birth rate. At the same time as the decreasing birth rate, the population is ageing, so the mortality rate has also increased. In this context, the natural population growth rate has been on the decline since the beginning of this century. By 2018, the natural population growth rate was only 3.81%. Rapid urbanisation and low natural population growth together are leading to a continuous decline in the rural population in China. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_3

55

3 Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements

Population

x 100000000

56 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Rural

2020

2018

2019

2016

2017

2015

2013

2014

2012

2010

2011

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

Urban

0.8%

60%

0.7%

50%

0.6%

40%

0.5%

30%

0.4%

20%

0.3%

Natrual growth rate

70%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Urbanisation rate

Fig. 3.1 Rural population growth in China (2000–2020). Source China Statistical Yearbook 2021

urbanisation rate

natual growth rate

Fig. 3.2 Change in the urbanisation rate and the rural population’s natural growth rate (2000–2018). Source China Statistical Yearbook 2019

To analyse the basic characteristics of rural population change further, a linear regression was used to fit it (Fig. 3.3), and the regression coefficient was −15,125,753. R-square was 0.9974, which shows strong goodness of fit; the model standard error was 4,878,507, and the model fitting could pass the 99.99% confidence-level test, which shows that the linear regression has an excellent fitting effect. China’s annual decline in rural population is about 15.13 million. To investigate the variations in the decline of rural population each year, the standard residual of the above model is calculated (Fig. 3.4). The results show that, from 2000 to 2004, the standard residual value rose, which indicates that the decline of

x 100000000

3.1 Population Transition in Rural China

57

8.5 8 7.5 y = -1.573E+07x + 3.107E+10 R² = 0.9974

Rural Population

7 6.5 6 5.5 5 4.5 4 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Fig. 3.3 Linear regression fitting of rural population change in China (2000–2020)

rural population in this period slowed down; from 2004 to 2009, the standard residual value remained above 0; after 2010, the standard residual value dropped rapidly to below 0, which indicates that the rural population had an accelerated decline in this stage; in recent years, the standard residual value has remained around 0, which indicates that the annual decline of rural population has remained relatively stable. Based on the linear regression, it is predicted that China’s rural population will drop to 439.02 million in 2025 and continue to drop to 287.76 million in 2035. It is Standard residuals 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 2018 2019 2020

2016 2017

2013 2014 2015

2011 2012

2008 2009 2010

2006 2007

2004 2005

2001 2002 2003

2000

-2

Fig. 3.4 Standard residuals of linear regression of rural population change in China (2000–2017)

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3 Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements

estimated that the rate of change of China’s total population by 2035 will be relatively small compared with the current one. Due to the decline in the rural population, the proportion of the rural population will be greatly reduced, probably to less than 30% of the total. We calculated the autocorrelation coefficient (ACF) and partial autocorrelation coefficient (PACF) of the time series. The results showed that the autocorrelation coefficient of the rural population time series periodically breaks through the double standard error value, and the significance of the value based on the progressive chisquare value of the Ljung Box series is lower than 0.01, which indicates that the series has obvious regularity and is significantly different from a random series (Table 3.1). The results the PACF calculation show that the first-order partial autocorrelation coefficient is significantly more than twice the standard error, while the subsequent partial autocorrelation coefficient is very close to 0. Thus, this is a partial autocorrelation result with a first-order truncation. Combined with the results of the autocorrelation coefficient, the time series of rural population in China has the characteristics of an AR (1) process. Because the size of the rural population is a very significant time series with trend characteristics, to eliminate the influence of trend, the firstorder difference of rural population is made, and the AR (1) model is established. The result of the AR (1) model is x = 1.01359 x(t − 1)−24,063,835. R-square is Table 3.1 Autocorrelation coefficient of the time series of rural population change in China (2000– 2017) Lag

Autocorrelation

Std. errora

Ljung box statistic Value

df

P valueb

1

0.861

0.203

17.889

1

0.000

2

0.721

0.198

31.121

2

0.000

3

0.583

0.193

40.255

3

0.000

4

0.449

0.188

45.979

4

0.000

5

0.317

0.182

49.013

5

0.000

6

0.19

0.176

50.18

6

0.000

7

0.074

0.17

50.366

7

0.000

8

−0.035

0.164

50.411

8

0.000

9

−0.137

0.158

51.161

9

0.000

10

−0.23

0.151

53.486

10

0.000

11

−0.303

0.144

57.911

11

0.000

12

−0.353

0.137

64.58

12

0.000

13

−0.389

0.129

73.707

13

0.000

14

−0.412

0.12

85.397

14

0.000

15

−0.416

0.111

99.349

15

0.000

16

−0.399

0.102

114.752

16

0.000

a b

The underlying process assumed is independence (with white noise) Based on the asymptotic chi-square approximation

3.1 Population Transition in Rural China

59

Table 3.2 Rough prediction of the total rural population in China 2025

2030

2035

Predicted value (million people) based on linear regression

439.02

363.39

287.76

Predicted value (million people) based on AR(1)

421.84

327.62

226.82

0.9993, which shows a high goodness of fit, and the standard error of the model is 2451840. The model fitting can pass the 99.99% confidence-level test, which shows an excellent fitting effect. Compared with the linear regression model, the first-order autoregressive model has a better fitting. The model shows that the natural growth rate of China’s rural population is about 1.359%, and that the population converting from rural to urban is about 24.06 million per year. Based on the AR (1) model, it is predicted that China’s rural population will drop to 421.84 million in 2025 and continue to drop to 226.82 million in 2035 (Table 3.2). Based on this model, it is estimated that by 2035, due to the decline in the rural population, the proportion of the rural population in the total population will be greatly reduced. Compared with the linear regression model, the characteristics of the AR (1) model are more suitable for predicting the actual change of rural population, so they have relatively greater reference significance.

3.1.2 Distribution and Movement of the Rural Population The spatial patterns of China’s rural population are generally consistent with the Hu Line. The Hu Line is the comparison line for dividing China’s population density proposed by Chinese Geographer Hu Huanyong in 1935, and it is widely recognised by other Chinese geographers (Wang et al., 2019). The rural population in the central and eastern regions is large (Fig. 3.5). China’s rural population is mainly distributed to the east of the Hu Line. Although there are obvious differences in the urbanisation rate among provinces, the difference in the size of the rural population caused by the urbanisation rate is not large compared with the total population. The spatial distribution of the total population is still the main reason for regional differences in the rural population. Among them, the density of the rural population in the north China Plain is the highest, the total population is large, and the level of urbanisation is not high. The reduction in the rural population is a common phenomenon in all provinces, but the number of rural inhabitants in some western frontier provinces and directadministered municipalities remains unchanged or has even increased (Fig. 3.6). Since the beginning of this century, the rural population has generally shown a downward trend. The rural population of provinces and regions along the Yangtze River has decreased significantly, with a decline rate of about 30% since the beginning of this century. At the same time, the change in rural population in some provinces is not significant, including Heilongjiang and Jilin in the northeast, Xinjiang and

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Fig. 3.5 Rural population in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Qinghai in the northwest and Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong and Hainan in the east. In addition, the number of rural inhabitants in a few provinces has also increased, including Tibet and Shanghai. The rural population growth in Tibet may be related to the higher natural population growth rate. The growth of the rural population in Shanghai may be related to the high urbanisation rate of the city. The willingness of rural inhabitants to transfer to cities and towns is not strong. In fact, there may be some counter-urbanisation phenomenon. To explore the change trend of rural population in China since the beginning of this century further, we divided it into four periods: 2000–2005, 2005–2010, 2010–2015 and 2015–2017. From 2000 to 2005 (Fig. 3.7), the decline in the rural population was most prominent in Chongqing. The rural population of Guizhou Province and Heilongjiang Province increased slightly because the growth rate of population in these areas was higher than the migration of population from rural to urban areas. For example, the birth rate of Guizhou Province was relatively high, but its urbanisation process was relatively slow at the beginning of this century. The rural population in other regions was on the decline. The decline rate of rural population in the eastern and central regions was higher than that in the western frontier provinces, and the decline rate of the western frontier provinces was relatively small. From 2005 to 2010 (Fig. 3.8), the decline in the rural population was more prominent than before. In many provinces, the decline in the rural population was more than 15%, in Jiangsu Province and Guizhou Province in particular. At the same time, the rural population of Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin in the east increased slightly

3.1 Population Transition in Rural China

61

Fig. 3.6 Rural population change in different provinces of China (2000–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Fig. 3.7 Rural population change in different provinces of China (2000–2005). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2006

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Fig. 3.8 Rural population change in different provinces of China (2005–2010). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2011

and that of Tibet in the west also increased. This phenomenon in Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin may be related to high level of urbanisation, while that in Tibet may be related to the natural growth of the rural population. In addition, the number of rural inhabitants in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Liaoning and other provinces has barely changed, and these provinces may have reached relatively high levels of urbanisation. From 2010 to 2015 (Fig. 3.9), the regional pattern of rural population decline was generally similar to that of 2005–2010, but the differences in the ranges of change between regions reduced. The reduction rates of rural population in various regions converged, and the change proportion in most provinces was between 10 and 15%. In addition, the rural population of Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin in the east continued to rise slightly and that of Tibet in the west also increased. From 2015 to 2017 (Fig. 3.10), the overall regional pattern of rural population decline was close to that of 2010–2015, and most provinces showed a small decline in rural population. In addition, there were no provinces with increasing rural population. In the east, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin, Liaoning and Guangdong provinces, and in the west, particularly in Tibet and Xinjiang, the number of rural inhabitants changed very little. Since the beginning of this century, the rural population of Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin has first reduced and then increased, while the rural population of the western frontier provinces has not reduced. With the changes over the years, significant differences have arisen between Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin and other provinces in rural population change. After the population decline in these three cities at the beginning

3.1 Population Transition in Rural China

63

Fig. 3.9 Rural population change in different provinces of China (2010–2015). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2016

Fig. 3.10 Rural population change in different provinces of China (2015–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

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of this century, there was a rise in the rural population. The level of population urbanisation in these three areas has reached a high level, and the process of urbanisation was basically completed at the beginning of this century. In addition, Tibet, Xinjiang and other provinces on the western frontier also show different changes in rural population from other provinces. There has been no significant decline in the number of rural population in these areas, and Tibet even maintained a sustained increase in rural population. The regional movement of population is an important reason for the rapid decline in the rural population in China (Fan, 2005; Lu, 1992). We captured the movement of people throughout the country during the Spring Festival using mobile phone data (Fig. 3.11). There are about 100 prefectures with net population inflow, accounting for one-third of the prefectures, less than the number of prefectures with net population outflow. In terms of quantity distribution, net inflow prefectures are more concentrated than net outflow prefectures. There is small-scale agglomeration in the three eastern major megacity regions of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta (also known as the Greater Bay Area). Among them, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have experienced a large immigration agglomeration. Although relatively more people have migrated to the eastern coastal areas, there is at least one migration centre in most provinces of central and western China. These prefectures are generally the capital cities or the subcentral cities of these provinces. This shows that the overall pattern of population movement in China is not only agglomeration to the eastern coast, but also agglomeration to the central cities within each provincial administrative region.

Fig. 3.11 Prefecture-level population movement in China. Source Mobile phone data from 2019

3.1 Population Transition in Rural China

65

The redistribution of the rural population in China is closely related to two factors: migration to the cities and the low natural growth rate. The migration from rural areas to cities is recognised as a global phenomenon in the process of urbanisation (Butterworth, 1981; Jaysawal & Saha, 2014; Karpat & Karpat, 1976; Sovani, 1964). Specifically, there are several reasons for the migration of rural residents to urban areas in China. Firstly, rural and agricultural mechanisation in China has improved the agricultural production efficiency (Biggs & Justice, 2015; Kienzle et al., 2013). This improvement in agricultural production efficiency has led to the emergence of a surplus labour force in rural areas (Guang-ting et al., 2010). This phenomenon is more prominent in some traditional agricultural provinces with high population density, such as Henan and Shandong (Di & Li, 2008). Secondly, the decline in the rural living environment has led to people’s reluctance to continue to live in rural areas (Li et al., 2016). China’s rural infrastructure conditions are much worse than those in urban areas, and many houses have been in disrepair for a long time. With the development of the economy, many rural residents have chosen to go to the city to pursue a better living environment. Thirdly, the huge difference in employment opportunities promotes the transfer of the rural population to cities (Zhao, 1999). China’s industrialisation first took place around urban areas and promoted the expansion of cities (Deng et al., 2008). Industrialisation allows cities to provide a large number of employment opportunities. At the same time, the wages for these jobs are much higher than those in rural areas, which is very attractive to rural residents. Even if these rural residents cannot afford house prices in the city, they are willing to rent informal housing and to wait for more opportunities. Fourthly, rural residents want to provide better educational opportunities for their children, so they often do not let future generations return to the countryside (Xing, 2014). Compared with cities, rural schools in China have worse teachers and hardware facilities. Chinese rural migrants bring children to urban schools in the hope of breaking the traditional poverty trap with better education (Zhang, 2017). Last but not least, most migrants from rural areas to cities are young people, which has led to a reduction of the natural population growth rate in rural areas. For one thing, the outflow of the rural young population has led to a change in the rural age structure and the decline of the childbearing age population. For another, the rural migrants are mainly male, which has led to a change in the gender and age structure in rural areas. A large number of females have stayed in rural areas, which has indirectly affected the opportunity for childbirth. Under the joint influence of various factors, the change in the rural population in some areas has fallen into a vicious circle. With the support of relevant policies, the number of returned entrepreneurs has begun to increase in recent years (Démurger & Xu, 2011), but the total number is still limited. According to statistics, the total number of returned entrepreneurs in 341 pilot areas reached 1.618 million, an increase of 28.6% year on year. To a certain extent, this tide of returning home to start a business is promoting the vitalisation of rural areas and employment in rural areas. However, the total number of returned entrepreneurs accounted for a very low proportion of the overall migrant workers, which did not change the overall trend of rural labour outflow.

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3.1.3 Growth of Income and Poverty Relief Rural Population

40

3.5

35

3

30 25

2.5

20

2

15

1.5

10

1

5

0.5

0

0

-5

Growth rate (%)

4

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

PCDI (CNY)

x 10,000

Since the reform and opening up, the income level of rural residents in China has continued to grow rapidly, but the growth rate is lower than that in the last century. In the early years of reform and opening up, China’s rural residents’ income showed a rapid growth of more than 10% per year (Fig. 3.12). Since then, the income level of rural residents has maintained a rapid growth, but the growth rate has declined. Since the beginning of this century, the growth rate of the income level of rural residents has first increased and then decreased. From 2000 to 2010, the growth rate increased from about 4% to more than 10%. In recent years, China’s economic development has entered a new normal, and the growth rate of rural residents’ income level has declined, but there is still stable growth. In 2017, the disposable income of rural residents in China was about 14,000 CNY. Compared with the income of urban residents, the overall level of rural residents’ income is still lower. In the past few decades, the income of urban residents has increased faster than that of rural residents most of the time. The income gap between urban and rural residents has been widening. However, in recent years, the income growth rates of urban residents and rural residents have been relatively close. The main source of rural residents’ income has changed due to diversification. Since the beginning of this century, the income source structure of Chinese rural residents has changed significantly (Fig. 3.13). The proportion of family business income has continued to decline, from more than 60% at the beginning of this century to less than 30% in 2017, indicating that the proportion of individual business of rural residents is decreasing; the proportion of wage income has continued to rise, from about 30% at the beginning of this century to more than 40%, and it exceeds family business income, becoming the main source of income for rural residents, indicating

PCDI of rural residents

PCDI of urban residents

Growth rate (rural)

Growth rate (urban)

Fig. 3.12 Changes in income and its growth rate for rural residents in China (1978–2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

3.1 Population Transition in Rural China

67

70% 60%

Proportion

50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Wage income

Family business income

Property income

Transfer income

2017

2015

2016

2014

2013

2011

2012

2009

2010

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2002

2003

2001

0%

Fig. 3.13 Changes in the income structure of rural residents (2001–2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

that enterprises are gradually developing. The proportion of transfer income has also experienced rapid growth, from about 5% at the beginning of this century to about 20%, indicating that the level of social security in rural areas of China is gradually improving. Generally speaking, the main source structure of rural residents’ income in China has shifted from family business income to the diversified mode of paying equal attention to management, wages and transfers. The increase in enterprises has strengthened the industrial ties between rural areas and other areas and promoted the growth of related transport demand. Since the reform and opening up, China’s township enterprises have risen rapidly in some areas (Fu & Balasubramanyam, 2003). Township enterprises originated from the dual economic structure of urban and rural separation formed by China’s underdeveloped economy (Chan & Wei, 2019). Due to the status restriction and the immobility of the rural population under long-standing policy, enterprises growing up spontaneously in rural areas obviously have different member compositions, social status, development tracks and operation modes from other forms of enterprises, and they have become a unique form of economic organisation and social group. The rise of township enterprises followed China’s economic reform. With the gradual deregulation of rural business organisations, township enterprises emerged in groups and grew rapidly, becoming the main body of China’s rural economic growth and an important supporting force for China’s rapid economic growth. Township enterprises have become an important transformation factor and power source for people to break through the original dual economic structure and to promote the rapid development of China’s economy. Their development and changes are playing an important role in the future trend of China’s economy. Compared with the large and medium-sized enterprises in cities and towns, the education level of the labour force attracted by township enterprises is low, which is affecting the future development prospects of

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township enterprises. However, township enterprises provide local employment for the rural population, promote the transformation of employment structure of rural residents, and improve the overall income level of rural residents, which plays a positive role in promoting the development of the rural economy.

Case: Sunan model and development of village enterprises Southern Jiangsu (Sunan) has always been one of the areas with the most advantageous agricultural production conditions and the strongest collective economy in China. As early as 1958, when people’s communes were popular, villages in Southern Jiangsu took the lead in establishing commune enterprises. In recent years, village enterprises in southern Jiangsu have established close cooperation with state-owned enterprises in Shanghai and other neighbouring cities. In 1983, Deng Xiaoping inspected Suzhou, Jiangsu Province. The great changes in the rural areas of Suzhou made Deng Xiaoping full of confidence in “quadrupling” and realising the goal of “well-off society”. In June 1987, when Deng Xiaoping met with the delegation of the Communist League of Yugoslavia in Beijing, he said, “in the rural reform, the biggest gain we didn’t expect was the development of village enterprises, which suddenly emerged to engage in various industries, commodity economy and small enterprises”. At that time, a variety of different enterprise development models had appeared in villages and towns all over the country, among which the most popular was Southern Jiangsu, represented by Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou. Although most village enterprises went into liquidation in 1962 due to the lack of a market base, some enterprises directly serving agriculture survived. After the Cultural Revolution began in 1966, the whole country set off an upsurge of going to the mountains and the countryside, which made the contradiction between people and land in the densely populated rural areas of Southern Jiangsu more prominent, resulting in a serious surplus of labour. At the same time, due to the heavy task of unified grain purchase and marketing, the per mu yield of farmland and farmers’ income needed to be improved. In August 1970, Zhou Enlai presided over a meeting on agriculture in the northern region, asking all localities to improve agricultural productivity through the development of mechanization. In southern Jiangsu, there was already a foundation of commune and team enterprises, along with the knowledge and experience of educated youth and workers in the countryside, and a large surplus of labour, which made the village enterprises rise again. After the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC Central Committee, the people’s commune disintegrated. In March 1984, the central government agreed that “commune team enterprise” should be renamed “township and village enterprise”, which included a joint household and individual economy and other forms of operation. However, since the trial implementation, there have been problems, such as state-owned

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enterprise employees being attracted away by private enterprises. Because the government does not participate in wage regulation, the gap between urban and rural areas became larger until the middle and late 1990s. However, the collective economy still accounted for more than 90% of village enterprises in southern Jiangsu. At the same time, the village enterprises in southern Jiangsu established close cooperation with state-owned enterprises in Shanghai and other neighbouring cities. On the one hand, they formed a local-scale economy by providing processing and other services for state-owned enterprises. On the other hand, they have attracted many so- called Saturday engineers from the state-owned enterprises in cities. These engineers use weekends to go to the enterprises in neighbouring villages and towns to provide technical and economic services. Given the high remuneration, some people can even get half a year’s wages from state-owned enterprises in one day. In this way, the development of village enterprises in southern Jiangsu developed quickly. Its total output reached 7–9% of the national total in the whole of the 1980s. Not only was the development speed remarkable, but also southern Jiangsu had the smallest income gap between urban and rural areas at that time. In 1983, Sociologist Fei Xiaotong put forward the concept of the “Sunan model” for the first time in his article Re-Exploration of Small Towns. As a successful practice of socialism, this model was pursued and imitated by the whole country at that time. From the end of 1990s to the beginning of the twenty-first century, southern Jiangsu actively accepted international industrial transfers, built a modern international manufacturing base with high-tech as the leading stream and park economy as the carrier and realized the integration of urban and rural economy and society through the interaction of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and internationalization. The “Sunan model” is the breakthrough of ownership structure adjustment due to the development of collective economy led by village enterprises. It has experienced two property rights system reforms, which have greatly promoted the marketization level of resource allocation. Thus, it has also created a “new Sunan model” composed of the state-owned economy, the private economy and foreign investment. The primary industry of rural households (most often, agriculture) is their main business, but the proportion of household income coming from a tertiary industry is growing rapidly (Fig. 3.14). Proportionately, the primary industry accounts for 70% of the total monthly income, followed by the tertiary industry, and the second industry is the lowest. This shows that agriculture is still the main business of households in rural areas of China, while few households set up factories (secondary industry). From the change point of view, the proportion of the primary industry is gradually decreasing, the proportion of the secondary industry is barely changing, and the proportion of tertiary industries (tourism/services) is gradually increasing. This

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3 Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010

2011

2012

Primary industry

2013

2014

Second Industry

2015

2016

2017

Tertiary industry

Fig. 3.14 Changes in the industrial structure of rural household income in China (2010–2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

reflects that the industrial structure of rural areas is changing, in that rural tourism and other rural service industries have developed rapidly in recent years and become an increasingly important source of income for rural residents. The development of rural service industry will promote interaction between rural residents, promote interaction between urban and rural residents and induce the growth of traffic. The income from rural primary industry mainly comes from agriculture, and the structure has barely changed (Fig. 3.15). In the income type of the primary industry of Chinese rural residents, agriculture in a narrow sense accounts for the largest proportion, which indicates that farming is the main mode of production in rural areas of China. The second-largest proportion is animal husbandry, which is mainly related to the mode of production in some pastoral provinces in China. Forestry and fishery account for the lowest proportion, with a total of less than 10%. All primary industries have certain requirements for transport. The internal income structure of the primary industry has not changed greatly in recent years, and it has remained stable as a whole. The income levels of rural residents are higher in the east and lower in the west (Fig. 3.16), while the growth rate pattern is roughly the opposite (Fig. 3.17). The differences between income levels of rural residents in each provincial administrative region show a decreasing pattern from east to west. The income level of the eastern coastal area is the highest, followed by the central region and northeast region, and the lowest incomes are in the western region. Among them, the income levels of rural residents in Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, where the private economy is relatively developed, are the highest. In terms of growth rate, the overall pattern of the country is roughly opposite to the current level. The fastest growth is in the western region, followed by the central region, and the slowest growth is in the eastern and north-eastern regions. Generally speaking, regions with high development levels have entered a relatively slow growth stage, while regions with

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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010

2011

Agriculture

2012

2013

Forestry

2014

2015

Animal husbandry

2016

2017

Fishing

Fig. 3.15 Changes in income structure of the primary industry of rural residents in China (2010– 2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

low development levels have maintained rapid growth. It is worth noting that the rural income level of northeast China is in the middle for the country, but its growth rate is the lowest in the country. China has always attached great importance to poverty alleviation (Liu et al., 2017). In 1986, China formulated a national poverty alleviation standard for the first

Fig. 3.16 Disposable income of rural residents in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

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Fig. 3.17 Growth rate of rural residents’ disposable income in different provinces of China (2010– 2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

time (Liu et al., 2018). The annual per-capita net income of farmers was set at 206 CNY. By 2000, the standard was 625 CNY. It was raised to 865 CNY in 2001 and 1274 CNY in 2010. In 2011, this standard was raised to 2300 CNY. In 2015, it was 2855 CNY. By 2020, this standard was about 4000 CNY. In 2015, President Xi held a symposium for the main responsible members of provincial party committees in Guizhou, requiring party committees and governments at all levels to grasp the timescale, strive to make up for their shortcomings, scientifically plan the poverty alleviation and development work during the 13th five-year plan period and ensure that poverty was eliminated as scheduled by 2020. In fact, according to its current standards, China had lifted all rural residents out of absolute poverty by 2020. China has identified 832 national poverty-stricken counties in the past. The national poverty-stricken standard for counties was set by the state to help poor areas. National poverty-stricken counties are defined according to the average annual net income of local people, while minority areas and old revolutionary base areas reduced their income standards accordingly. National poverty-stricken counties were mainly concentrated in the western region. The state has given a lot of support to national poverty-stricken counties to lift rural residents in these areas out of poverty. On 23 November 2020, with the announcement of success from Guizhou Province, all national poverty-stricken counties were finally eliminated. This not only indicates that 66 poverty-stricken counties in Guizhou Province were lifted out of poverty as a whole, but also indicates that all 832 poverty-stricken counties in China as determined

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by the Poverty Alleviation Office of the State Council were lifted out of poverty, and the national poverty alleviation goal and task have been completed.

3.1.4 Change in Lifestyles of the Rural Population The consumption levels of rural residents in China continued to grow, the ratio of income to expenditure decreased (Fig. 3.18), and the concept of consumption changed. The annual per-capita consumption expenditure of rural residents in China is growing, from less than 2000 CNY at the beginning of this century to 10,000 CNY in 2017. The consumption level has changed significantly, the scale of consumption expenditure has greatly increased, and living standards have improved. There has been a decline in the income-to-expenditure ratio of rural residents in recent years. This shows that the concept of consumption of Chinese rural residents has changed and that rural residents are willing to spend more of their income on consumption, while the proportion of savings has declined. This reflects the rising consumption willingness of rural residents, and it promotes the improvement of rural economic vitality. The consumption structure of rural residents has changed significantly and the proportion of food expenditure has decreased, that is, the Engel’s coefficient has decreased, while the proportion of housing and transport has increased significantly (Fig. 3.19). Food, clothing, housing and transport account for the highest proportion of consumption at present. The proportion of food is decreasing, while the proportion of housing and transport is increasing. The proportion of food expenditure reduced, including tobacco and alcohol, from about 50% at the beginning of this century to 12000

1.5 1.45

10000

1.35

6000

1.3

ratio

PCCE (CNY)

1.4 8000

1.25

4000

1.2 2000

1.15

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

1.1

PCCE of rural residents

Ratio of income to expenditure

Fig. 3.18 Changes in rural residents’ expenditure and income-to-expenditure ratio in China (2000– 2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

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about 30% in 2017, reflecting the decrease in the proportion of expenditure for basic living needs and the improvement in the living standards of rural residents. The rising proportion of residential housing expenditure reflects that the housing cost of rural residents continues to rise, and the rising speed of house prices may exceed that of other consumer goods in rural areas. The proportion of transport and communication has increased significantly, which indicates that the willingness of rural residents to establish more contact with other residents is increasing, and that travel demand is growing rapidly in recent years. However, the proportion of education and medical expenses has not changed much. The proportion of food and medical expenditure in rural areas is higher than in urban areas. Correspondingly, the proportion of clothing, housing and education in rural areas is lower than that in urban areas. The proportion of transport expenditure in urban areas and rural areas is similar. Overall, the living standard of rural residents is still lower than that of urban residents. This is mainly reflected in the expenditure on improving living standards, such as clothing and education. With the increase in villagers’ car ownership, the trend of rural motorisation is becoming more and more obvious (Fig. 3.20). For a long time, the income inequality between urban and rural households led to a gap in car ownership. Less proximity to basic public services results in forced car ownership for rural households (Zhao & Bai, 2019). Car travel is gradually becoming popular in rural areas, which is increasing villagers’ daily travel distance and expanding the scope of their trips. In recent years, China’s rural car ownership rate has been rising continuously. Although the rural car ownership rate is still lower than that in cities, the gap between them is narrowing. As Fig. 3.20 shows, in 2014, the car ownership rate in urban areas was 2.4 times that in rural areas. However, in 2020, the car ownership rate in urban areas was only 1.7 times that in rural areas. This reflects an improvement in the travel ability of rural residents to a certain extent. Rural residents in China are more likely to travel to other areas more frequently than in the past to participate in various social activities in cities. The level of rural residents’ expenditure is higher in the east and lower in the west, and it is relatively higher along the Yangtze River in inland provinces (Fig. 3.21). The difference between consumption expenditure levels of rural residents in each provincial administrative region shows a decreasing pattern from east to west. The income level of the eastern coastal area is the highest, followed by the central region and northeast region, and the western region is the lowest. The consumption expenditure level of rural residents in the Beijing–Tianjin region, Jiangsu–Zhejiang–Shanghai region and southeast coast is the highest. Among the inland provinces, Anhui, Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan and Chongqing along the Yangtze River have higher consumption than the surrounding provinces. In addition, the consumption willingness of rural residents in Tibet is the lowest in China. The fastest growth of rural residents’ expenditure is in the Sichuan–Chongqing– Guizhou region in southwest China (Fig. 3.22). The growth rate in the central and western regions is faster than that in the eastern regions. Among them, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou and other places in the southwest have the fastest growth in rural consumption expenditure, which indicates that the concept of consumption of

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100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

Food

Clothing

Housing

Daily articles and service

Transport

Education and entertainment

Medical expenses

Others

2017

2016

2015

2014

2012

2013

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2003

2004

2002

2001

2000

0%

(a) Changes in rural residents’ expenditure structure (2000–2017) 35%

Proportion

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Rural

Urban

(b) Comparison of urban and rural expenditure structure in 2017 Fig. 3.19 Expenditure structure in China. Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

rural residents in these areas is changing rapidly, and the consumption willingness of rural residents is increasing rapidly. This may be related to the regional culture of the region. In the eastern coastal provinces, the growth of rural consumption expenditure is relatively slow, which is related to the higher base levels in these areas.

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50 45

2

35 1.5

30

Ratio

Cars/100 families

40

25 1

20 15

0.5

10 5 0

0 2014

2015

Car ownership (rural)

2016

2017

2018

Car ownership (urban)

2019

2020 Urban-rural ratio

Fig. 3.20 Changes in car ownership (2014–2020). Source China Statistical Yearbook 2021

Fig. 3.21 Expenditure of rural residents in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

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Fig. 3.22 Growth rate of rural residents’ expenditure in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

3.2 Changes in Rural Settlements in China 3.2.1 Types of Rural Settlements in China The dual urban–rural structure is beginning to break down, the relationship between urban and rural areas is becoming closer, the boundaries are becoming more blurred, and a wider range of urban–rural space with chaotic characteristics is emerging between urban and rural areas (Long, 2013; Long et al., 2014; Woods, 2009). This trend makes it more difficult to distinguish rural areas from urban areas. After extensive research on the regional development of developing countries in Asia, McGee put forward the theory of Desakota in 1987. Desakota describes the growth and features of areas of mixed urban and agricultural activities that characterise the previously rural hinterlands of many of the rapidly expanding urban centres of the developing world. He studied the grey region of urban and rural integration, which includes the peripheral area of the metropolis (generally within the daily commuting range with the city), the corridor area between big cities (near trunk roads or around railways), rural areas with high population densities and mixed agricultural and non-agricultural areas, which are closely connected to cities (Hu, 1993; Shi, 1998). In addition to the traditional conception of rural areas, rural areas begin to refer to other kinds of areas in which urban and rural space are interlaced and mixed in some contexts, including small towns in rural areas (Powe & Shaw, 2004), exurban areas (Larsen et al., 2007;

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Salvati et al., 2013), peripheral communities within the range of urban commuting (Bossuet, 2006) and the urban–rural fringe (LeSage & Charles, 2008; Mahon, 2007). A village is a form of human settlement that is closely related to the development of human civilisation. The village is a kind of settlement form in which the residents are mainly engaged in agricultural activities and the population is relatively sparse and scattered compared with cities and towns. The appearance of rural areas in the early stage not only provided a habitat for human beings from floating to settlement, but also provided basic survival materials. In thousands of years of human history, centring on human activities such as production and living, clan reproduction and cultural leisure, rural areas have formed the scale pattern and spatial structure of rural settlements relying on specific physical geographical characteristics. According to their development status, location conditions and natural resource endowment, planners also divided villages in rural areas into four different types, namely villages to be upgraded, villages to be integrated with suburban areas, villages to be protected and villages to be relocated. The planning makes it clear that rural construction should be promoted by classification. Among them, (1) villages to be upgraded refer to the existing large central villages and other villages that will be developed (Fig. 3.23), which are the majority of village types and the key breakthrough areas for agricultural and rural modernisation. (2) Villages to be integrated with suburban areas refer to villages that actively undertake urban population dispersal and functional spillover (Fig. 3.24). These villages extend the agricultural industry chain and make it possible for farmers to gain more industrial value-added benefits. Usually, these villages can accelerate interconnections with urban infrastructure and promote resources, technology and other urban elements to rural areas. (3) Villages to be protected refer to villages with rich natural, historical and cultural resources. The focus of these villages is to integrate improvements in farmers’ production and living conditions with the protection of natural and cultural heritage and to accelerate the modernisation of agriculture and rural areas (Fig. 3.25). This kind of village will strengthen the protection of the overall features of tradition and moderately develop characteristic tourism. (4) Villages to be relocated refer to villages with poor living environments and fragile ecological environments, which do not have basic development conditions and need to be relocated. Villages in restricted or prohibited development areas and villages that need to be relocated due to the construction of national engineering projects also belong to this type (Fig. 3.26). This kind of village should solve the employment problems of relocated people and avoid the construction of isolated immigrant communities. Figure 3.27 shows the locations of the cases. In addition, rural settlements can be classified according to different perspectives on their economic functions, terrain conditions, spatial form and population sizes. For example, from an economic perspective, settlements can be divided into agricultural villages and non-agricultural villages; agricultural villages can be subdivided into animal husbandry villages, fishery villages and forestry villages; non-agricultural villages can be subdivided into industrial and mining villages, tourism villages, religious settlements, etc. From the perspective of terrain, settlements can be divided into villages on plains, mountain villages, valley villages, etc. Looking at spatial

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Fig. 3.23 Typical landscape of the villages to be upgraded: a village in Dazhou, Sichuan. Source Baidu Map Street View

Fig. 3.24 Typical landscape of villages to be integrated with a suburban area: a village in Huizhou, Guangdong. Source Baidu Map Street View

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Fig. 3.25 Typical landscape of the villages to be protected: a village in Suzhou, Jiangsu. Source Baidu Map Street View

Fig. 3.26 Typical landscape of the villages to be relocated: A village in Zibo, Shandong. Source Baidu Map Street View

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Fig. 3.27 Locations of the cases mentioned

morphology, settlements can be divided into scattered villages and concentrated villages. Looking at population size, they can be divided into small villages and large villages.

3.2.2 Distribution of Rural Settlements The number of rural settlements in China is gradually shrinking, and the population distribution is becoming more centralised. In the past 30 years, the number of villages in China has shown a downward trend (Fig. 3.28). Many areas in China have gradually removed some rural residential areas with small populations by means of village demolition and consolidation, and they have merged several rural residential areas to promote population aggregation by administrative means and to provide more available agricultural land to ensure that the total scale of farmland in the country does not decline (Lichtenberg & Ding, 2008; Wu et al., 2017). This process has played a positive role in promoting urbanisation, but there may be some blindness. Some areas tend to employ large-scale demolition and construction and aggressive movement, ignoring the protection and preservation of traditional rural elements. Due to the disruption of the original village organisation structure, some areas may also see new contradictions between land ownership and villagers’ management. China has a vast geographical area and a long history of civilisation, forming traditional villages with different regional characteristics (Fig. 3.29). All ethnic

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3 Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements 400

Number of villages x10,000

380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 19901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016

Fig. 3.28 Number variance of villages in China (1990–2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

groups in China have accumulated rich experience in rural residential buildings over time (Oranratmanee, 2020). In agricultural society, the level of productivity is relatively backward. To obtain a better living environment, people in different regions have adapted measures to local conditions and built villages suitable for the local geographical environment. For example, the houses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are compact, simple and elegant in appearance, and most of them are near mountains and rivers. The Hakka residents in northern Guangdong, southern Jiangxi and southern Fujian are used to living in large families, forming enclosed houses and earth buildings with the characteristics of firmness, safety and closeness. The houses in northern China are thick and solid in appearance, with the beauty of symmetry and squareness. In the Loess Plateau area, horizontal holes were dug in the soil wall, and several holes were often connected. Brick and stone were added to the holes, forming cave dwelling houses. In the past, China’s construction was concentrated in urban areas, and the traditional features of many villages have been preserved to a certain extent. At the same time, due to the lack of continuous outflow of the rural population and the lack of investment in rural areas, many rural houses are not maintained well, the infrastructure is very backward, and the living environment is relatively poor. To protect domestic food security, China has defined the scope of basic farmland protection and implemented a balance of cultivated land occupation and compensation (Liu et al., 2005) to ensure that the overall scale of cultivated land does not decline. The balance of cultivated land occupation and compensation requires that those occupying cultivated land should be responsible for reclaiming cultivated land equivalent to the quantity and quality of the cultivated land they occupy (Bilin et al., 2009). If there are no conditions for reclamation, the cultivated land reclamation fee must be paid in accordance with the law, and the special fund must be used for the

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Fig. 3.29 Chinese rural landscapes in different regions. Top: Yangtze River Basin. Middle: Fujian. Bottom: Loess Plateau. Source Chinese National Geography. http://www.dili360.com/article/p54 cb1fc1e775178.htm; http://www.dili360.com/gallery/30.htm; http://www.dili360.com/cng/article/ p5350c3d844a2127.htm

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Fig. 3.30 Land reclamation in rural areas. Source Wuxuan Government. http://www.wuxuan.gov. cn/gddt/t345834.shtml

reclamation of new cultivated land. The rapid expansion of China’s cities has occupied a large amount of previously cultivated land. To supplement the corresponding scale of cultivated land, local governments have relocated some rural construction land, demolished buildings (Fig. 3.30) and reclaimed the original rural construction land into cultivated land. The total number of rural settlements in China is large, and the density of settlement is roughly bounded by the Hu Line. The total number of natural villages in China is very large, and the total number in each province is large. At the same time, there are differences in the distribution of rural settlements in different regions. The most significant difference is that the density of rural settlements in the west is significantly lower than that in the east (Fig. 3.31). To the east of the Hu Line, the number of rural settlements in northeast China and Yunnan is relatively low. In addition, in Fujian and other eastern provinces with relatively complex natural terrain conditions, the density of rural areas is relatively low. The number of villages in most areas of China is reducing, but the number of villages in some provinces of northwest China is still increasing rapidly (Fig. 3.32). As a whole, the number of villages is declining. In the past decade, the number of villages in most provinces of China has decreased significantly, especially in the provinces to the east of Hu Line. The most prominent reduction of villages is in Hunan and Hubei provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. By contrast, there is a general increase in village settlements in northwest China. Among them, the 10-year growth rate of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai and other provinces

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Fig. 3.31 Distribution of villages in China (2018). Source Geographic data platform of Peking University

has exceeded 20%. These areas are vast and sparsely populated. The intensity of regional development is low, and the number of original village settlements is small. At present, this area is still in a relatively early stage of development. Yunnan, Hainan and other provinces are also similar to these provinces. It is worth noting that the number of villages in Hebei, Tianjin and Shandong in east China has also increased to a certain extent, which may show rash construction of villages. The densely distributed areas of rural settlements are mainly distributed in the north China Plain, and the overall spatial pattern is dense in the north and sparse in the south (Fig. 3.33). The distribution of rural settlements in China is very extensive. In terms of the overall pattern of the country, the sparsely distributed areas are mainly Qinghai, Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, western Sichuan and northeast China, while other areas are relatively dense. Among them, the most densely distributed area is the north China Plain, which has excellent natural conditions, a long history of agricultural civilisation and a large number of rural settlements. In addition, the Guanzhong Plain is also an important area where rural settlements are densely distributed in the north. In the south, the distribution is relatively sparse, the natural terrain conditions in the south are mainly hilly, the concentrated distribution areas of contiguous rural settlements are relatively small, and the total rural population is small, but the distribution is relatively more concentrated. The relatively dense areas of rural settlements in southern China include the Yangtze River Delta, Poyang Lake Plain, Dongting Lake Plain, Chengdu Chongqing and northern Hainan. These areas are also relatively flat and have a long history of agricultural development.

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Fig. 3.32 Change of village numbers in different provinces of China (2007–2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

Fig. 3.33 Kernel density of rural settlements in China (2018)

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87

The results of standard deviation ellipse analysis show that the main spatial distribution range of rural settlements in China is mainly in the Han nationalityconcentrated distribution areas except in northeast China, including north China, east China and central China, Guangdong and Guangxi in south China, Sichuan, Chongqing and Guizhou in southwest China and Shaanxi in northwest China (Fig. 3.34). The long half axis of the standard deviation ellipse is in the northeast–southwest direction, which is roughly consistent with the Hu Line. The short half axis of the standard deviation ellipse is 820.1886 km, extending from northeast to Hebei and Shandong, southwest to Guizhou and Yunnan, and the long half axis is 958.3188 km, extending from southeast to Fujian and Jiangxi, northwest to Gansu and Ningxia (Table 3.3). The centre of the standard deviation ellipse is at 111.6668 degrees east longitude and 31.0809 degrees north latitude, within Hubei Province. This shows that the number of rural residents in ethnic minority areas is less than that in Han areas. The distribution direction of residential areas is mainly northeast–southwest. Spatial optimised reconstruction of rural settlements is the key to rural sustainable development (Yang et al., 2016). On the micro-scale, due to the different geographical environments, there are certain differences in the spatial distribution of rural

Fig. 3.34 Standard deviational ellipse of villages in China (2018)

Table 3.3 Parameters of standard deviational ellipse of villages in China Longitude

Latitude

X distance (km)

Y distance (km)

Rotation

111.6668 E

31.0809 N

820.1886

958.3188

44.9755

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3 Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements

settlements in different regions (Fig. 3.35). Taking several typical different regions as examples, the distribution of rural settlements on the north China Plain is relatively dense, and the spatial distance between settlements is relatively small. The size of a single settlement is relatively large, the spatial form of settlements is roughly square, and the road network form is roughly grid shaped. In Taihu Plain in eastern China, the water network is dense, and the distribution of rural settlements is relatively dense, but lower than that on the north China Plain. The spatial distance between settlements is relatively small. The distance between villages is greatly affected by the water network. The size of single settlements is relatively small. The settlement space forms are different, most of them are banded, distributed along the river, and the road network is free form. In the Loess Plateau, the rural settlements are sparsely distributed. The distance between settlements is relatively large, and the size of single settlements is relatively small. The settlement space forms are different, and the road network is free form due to the influence of the mountain.

3.2.3 Living Environment of Rural Settlements The gap between urban infrastructure and rural infrastructure has existed for a long time in China (Li et al., 2008; Park, 2008). In recent years, with the continuous investment in rural construction, the level of infrastructure in rural areas has been greatly improved, and the living standard of rural residents has also improved. Taking the popularisation rate of water supply and the amount of sanitation equipment in rural areas as an example, there has been a rapid growth in recent decades (Fig. 3.36). The popularisation rate of tap water supply has increased from less than 40% in the early 1990s to about 80% at present, which has doubled and has gradually approached the level of cities and towns; the total amount of environmental sanitation equipment has nearly doubled in the past 30 years. In the past 10 years, the amount has achieved rapid growth, reaching about 30,000 units. These changes reflect the continuous optimisation of the overall infrastructure level in rural areas of China. Although the infrastructure in rural areas has been greatly improved, there are still some problems. On the one hand, there is still a gap between rural and urban infrastructure. Although the difference between urban and rural infrastructure in tap water supply, power supply and other basic municipal facilities is small, the gap between rural and urban infrastructure in commercial services, culture and health is very large. In addition, there is a certain gap between rural infrastructure construction quality standards and those in urban areas. There are still shortcomings in construction maintenance management. There are few standards in the field of rural infrastructure construction and service, and there are still problems in the field of rural infrastructure construction and maintenance, public service and social management. Therefore, for rural infrastructure, only incremental improvement has been achieved at present, and further quality improvement is needed in the future to realise fine management and precise service of rural infrastructure. On the other hand, there are regional imbalances in the development of rural infrastructure.

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Fig. 3.35 Rural settlements in different areas of China. Top: North China. Middle: Taihu Basin. Bottom: Loess Plateau

3 Transition in the Rural Population and Settlements 90 80 25 70 60

20

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30

Popularisation rate of tap water supply (%)

2014

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1998

1996

1994

1992

0 1990

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90

Sanitation equipment

Fig. 3.36 Popularisation rate of tap water supply and sanitation equipment in rural China (1990– 2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

The water and gas popularisation rate in the central and western regions is not ideal. Unsafe drinking water can greatly increase the risk of disease transmission in rural areas (Ashbolt, 2004). Tap water and gas are important parts of the infrastructure that can promote the modernisation of rural areas, as well as ensuring and improving the living standards of rural residents (Wang et al., 1989). In terms of tap water (Fig. 3.37), the popularity rate in the central provinces is the worst. The popularity rate of tap water in Jiangxi, Hunan and other provinces is less than 60%, and the popularity rate in northeast China is also relatively unsatisfactory. The popularisation rate of tap water in eastern coastal and western frontier provinces is relatively good. The popularisation rate of tap water in Jiangsu, Shandong and other provinces has exceeded 90%. In terms of gas (Fig. 3.38), there is a big gap between provincial administrative regions in China. Gas use reduces from the southeast coast to inland. The rural gas penetration rate in Jiangsu, Shanghai and other provinces and cities has reached more than 60%, but it is less than 10% in several inland provinces in northwest China. In a word, in terms of rural infrastructure such as water and gas, the eastern coastal areas have the best development level, while the central and western areas need improvement. Figure 3.39 illustrates the tap water system in rural China.

3.3 Rural Settlements and Population Distribution It is evident that the most densely distributed areas of rural settlements are not completely consistent with the population distribution, and that some areas such as Sichuan and Hunan may have higher risks of hollow villages (Fig. 3.40). The highest 20% of the kernel density analysis results of rural residential areas covers

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Fig. 3.37 Popularity rate of tap water in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

Fig. 3.38 Popularity rate of gas in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

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Fig. 3.39 Tap water system in rural China. Source Chongqing Daily. http://www.kaixian.tv/gd/ 2015/1231/530923.html

Henan, Shandong, northern Jiangsu, eastern Anhui, central Zhejiang, the Guanzhong area of Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan and central Hunan. Superimposing the results with the population grid data shows that the distribution of rural settlements is not completely consistent with the population distribution. The population density in eastern Sichuan and central Hunan is relatively low, but the distribution of rural settlements is relatively high, which may lead to the risk of hollow villages.

Case: Sichuan poor county farmers live to do farm work Liu Jinyin, a 26-year-old rural male, is tall, dark skinned and has a heavy accent. It would be difficult for a stranger to guess that he is an internet influencer—livestreaming catching lobster, fishing for mackerel, catching jaundice, cultivating pig grass and other scenes of rural daily life on his mobile phone for seven months. He has attracted more than 110,000 fans and earned more than 240,000 CNY. Although the money is divided with the live broadcast platform, it is still huge sum. The internet influencer is located in the Wumen Mountain area, three stone villages in Hejiang County, Sichuan Province, which is one of the poorest areas in China. The villagers go out to work all day every day. Young people in their 20s and 30s have left; only Liu Jinyin remains.

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93

Fig. 3.40 Top 20% of kernel density of rural settlements (2018) and population density (2015)

The reason Liu Jinyin has become an internet influencer is that he shows the simple side of real life in a rural area. People who lives in big cities have not seen much rural life, and rural people feel very familiar with it. The reason why the live platform came to his home to hold a press conference was to watch his live broadcast of the “positive energy of new rural life”. The problem of hollow villages is widespread in China, and it restricts the sustainable development of rural areas (Liu et al., 2010; Sun et al., 2011). The dual system of urban–rural separation and the strategy of urban priority development along with many labour, land, capital and other production factors encourage people to gather in cities, restrict the sustainable development of rural areas and lead to an increasingly serious rural disease. This is embodied in high-speed non-agricultural production factors such as land and population, the weakening of rural social subjects, the serious waste of village land, the serious pollution of rural water and soil environment and the deep poverty of rural areas. The young and middle-aged population in rural areas continue to flow out, but the construction land has not declined accordingly. On the contrary, rural construction is increasing in some areas. In this context, the per-capita construction land area in rural areas has actually maintained an upward trend (Fig. 3.41). The current serious hollowing out of village land is intensifying the hollowing out of rural areas. With the construction of beautiful countryside, a new round of development and construction has been carried out in rural areas, which

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Per-capita construction land area (m2)

260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Fig. 3.41 Per-capita construction land area in rural areas of China (1990–2016). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

has attracted a larger population and played a certain role in promoting rural development. However, a considerable part of the existing old villages still lacks vitality, and the efficiency of land use is very low. As the province with the largest rural population in China, Henan Province is facing a serious problem of hollow villages. For instance, there are 400 registered inhabitants of Xiaowangzhuang village, Dingcun Township, Dancheng County and Henan Province, but there are fewer than 40 villagers living in the village, and most of them are older (Xinhuanet, 2018). According to the survey of the local land and resources department, there are 340 hollow villages in Dancheng County, and the land has a consolidation value of up to 50,000 mu. To solve the governance problems of hollow villages and to improve the utilisation efficiency of rural land further, Dancheng County has carried out special work to renovate hollow villages since 2016. On the premise of respecting the wishes of the masses, Dancheng County demolished the old houses in the hollow villages and carried out land reclamation and cultivation. After the transformation, the land is still owned by the villagers. While the overall cultivated land area of the county has increased, the per-capita land of farmers has also increased by nearly 1 mu. After renovation, the withered and dilapidated village has turned into a whole grain field, the dilapidated old houses have become modern communities, and the countryside has taken on a new look. It is recognised that rural hollowing presents different characteristics at different stages of the process of urbanisation (Song, 2016). Local governments should make policy and plan based on the different stages of local urbanisation and local conditions. The scale of per-capita village construction land in north China, south China and southwest China is relatively large, and there is a large risk of land waste (Fig. 3.42). From the perspective of provincial administrative regions in China, the per-capita village construction land in Henan, Hebei, Shandong and Sichuan exceeds 400 m2 ,

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Fig. 3.42 Per-capita village construction land area in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

nearly twice the national average. Among them, the per-capita village construction land area in Henan Province is the highest, even more than 500 m2 . These provinces also have the most serious outflow of rural labour. The scale of rural construction in these provinces is large, but the rural population continues to flow out. If the construction is not controlled, there will be a great risk of hollow villages. Not only do Hebei and other provinces in north China have high per-capita village construction land status, but also the number of villages has maintained a growth trend, which requires special attention. To explore the spatial relationship between the distribution patterns of rural settlements and population further, the ratio of nuclear density analysis results of rural settlements to population density is calculated, and the standard deviation method is used for visualisation (Fig. 3.43). The results show that the ratio of nuclear density to population density of rural residential areas is higher in the west than in the east. In other words, combined with the population density, the distribution of rural settlements to the west of the Hu Line is relatively dense, and the number of rural settlements is relatively large. These areas are sparsely populated and scattered, and the population of a single village may be relatively small, which is obvious in southern Tibet, southern Xinjiang and Qinghai. To the east of the Hu Line, the index value also reduces from northwest to southeast. Among them, the index of Shanxi Province is higher than the surrounding areas, which may also be related to the relatively uneven terrain and relatively sparse population distribution. In the southeast region, the index of southern Zhejiang and southern Anhui is relatively high. To sum up, in some areas with relatively complex terrain, the population is relatively sparse compared with

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Fig. 3.43 Density of villages divided by population density (2018)

other areas. However, although the rural settlements in these areas are sparser, the degree of relative sparsity does not equate to a change of population distribution. Therefore, in these mountainous and hilly areas, the scale of a single village may be relatively small, and the population of a single village may also be relatively small, showing different patterns from level areas.

3.4 Summary The main conclusions of our research in this chapter are as follows: (1) The rural population in China shows a tendency of decline, which is common all over the country. By 2035, China’s rural population is expected to drop to just over 300 million. This decline is caused by the extremely low natural growth rate of population and the rapid development of urbanisation. The rural population continues to migrate to coastal and regional central cities. In this context, the travel demand of rural areas in the central and western regions has reduced significantly. This presents challenges for the future transport investment and infrastructure maintenance in these areas. (2) Rural hollowing is becoming a matter of concern in China. Rural construction in China is still increasing. The distribution of rural settlements is similar to that of the rural population, but there is still spatial dislocation. With the migration of rural residents to cities, more and more villages are facing the risk of

References

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recession. For example, in some traditional densely populated rural areas, such as northern Henan, due to the outflow of labour, there is a spatial dislocation between the distribution of population and residential areas. Much rural land has been abandoned, resulting in low rural land use efficiency. The allocation of public service facilities will face great redistribution pressure in the future. (3) The living environment in rural areas of China is still poor. The regional gap in rural infrastructure is relatively large. For example, there are still many places where rural residents do not have access to safe drinking water. The reason for this phenomenon is the long-standing gap between urban and rural areas. The poor living environment has plunged China’s rural areas into a vicious circle of recession. It results in more and more rural residents choosing to leave, and the departure of residents means that rural areas have less regulation and management. In the future, balancing the relationship between rural landscaping and overinvestment is an important issue. (4) The income and consumption of rural residents in China are gradually increasing, and their income structure is becoming non-rural. With the development of the rural economy and society, villagers have a richer source of income, and they also have the opportunity to participate in more kinds of entertainment consumption. The regional differences in income and consumption are constantly shrinking. More and more rural families are choosing to buy cars and travel by car. The gap between rural car ownership and that of cities is narrowing. This means that some standards of rural infrastructure, such as the layout of parking facilities, may need to be aligned with the city. (5) Although there are many problems in the Chinese countryside, the development of the Chinese countryside is still worthy of recognition. China’s urban–rural gap has existed for a long time, and the priority development of cities has widened this gap to a certain extent since the reform and opening up. However, in recent decades, the Chinese government has paid great attention to rural development and focused on narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas. The improvement of rural areas in China is largely due to the active investment and action of the Chinese government. Especially in recent years, the CPC has paid great attention to alleviating the poverty of the extremely poor. China claims to have achieved full rural poverty alleviation in 2020. This is a successful experience of China. A considerable number of government officials are stationed in villages to educate rural residents on how to improve their production skills. This practice is also worthy of reference for other developing countries elsewhere.

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Chapter 4

Match Between Rural Transport and Population

4.1 Features of Rural Transport Infrastructure and Services 4.1.1 Rural Road Network Improving rural roads is likely to reduce transport cost and stimulate marketing, which results in increased production and productivity, crop diversification and increased profitability (Samanta, 2015). The total mileage of rural roads in China is increasing, and it is gradually meeting the travel needs of rural residents. In recent years, the mileage of rural roads has continued to grow (Fig. 4.1). However, we still need to pay attention to the fact that in the past, the rural road mileage in China was low, and the foundation was relatively weak. Compared with developed countries, there was a long-term gap. In addition, due to China’s vast land area, there are regional differences in the development of rural roads. The imbalance of rural road development in different regions is also a key problem for investigation. China’s road system can be divided into an urban road system and a highway system. There are many standards for highway classification, including functional and administrative categories. According to the technical standard for Highway Engineering (JTG B01–2014), there are five grades of highway: expressway, firstclass highway, second-class highway, third-class highway and fourth-class highway. Administrative-level classifications can be divided into national highway, provincial highway, county highway, township highway and special highway. The rural roads in this study refer to all roads with traffic capacity within the range of rural areas, that is, outside the range of urban areas and towns. National highways are main trunk highways with national political and economic significance, including important international highways, national defence highways, highways connecting the national capital with the capitals of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, and highways connecting major economic centres, port and station hubs, commodity production © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_4

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Rural road mileage

x 100,000

102 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fig. 4.1 Total mileage of rural roads in China (2010–2020). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2020

bases and strategic locations. Provincial highways are major highways that have political and economic significance for the whole province and are built, maintained and managed by the provincial highways department. County highways are roads with political and economic significance for the whole county and that connect the county with the main towns and major commodity production and distribution centres in the county, as well as intercounty roads, which are neither national roads nor provincial roads. County highways are built, maintained and managed by highways departments at the county level. Township highways are roads that mainly serve the rural economy, culture and administration, as well as roads that do not have significance above the county level between townships and between townships and the outside. The people’s government is responsible for the construction, maintenance and management of township highways. Special highways are roads that are specially or mainly used to connect factories and mines, forest areas, farms, oil fields, tourist areas, important military sites, etc. Special highways are built, maintained and managed by special-purpose units. They can also be entrusted to the local highway department for construction, maintenance and management. Generally speaking, the design standards for national and provincial highway are relatively high (Fig. 4.2), while the design standards for county and township highway are relatively low. However, there may be differences in design standards and construction quality of roads of the same administrative level in different areas. The level of social and economic development in west China is relatively backward, and the design standards of many national and provincial highways are also relatively low (Figs. 4.3 and 4.4). China launched a national trunk highway system at the beginning of this century, with the aim of bringing about more balanced development in the spatial sense (Li & Shum, 2001). However, there are large spatial differences in the amount of new construction of rural road mileage among provinces, and the growth rate in Inner

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Fig. 4.2 National highway in rural China (Jiangsu Province in east China). Source Baidu Map Street View

Fig. 4.3 National highway in rural China (Jiangxi Province in central China). Source Baidu Map Street View

Fig. 4.4 National highway in rural China (Gansu Province in west China). Source Baidu Map Street View

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Mongolia and the western provinces is higher. There are great differences in the increase of road mileage in rural areas from 2010 to 2016 among provinces (Fig. 4.5). Among them, Shandong Province and Sichuan Province have large amounts of new rural road mileage, and their rural road mileage is far ahead of other provinces. The provinces with the largest proportion of new rural road mileage include Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. The proportion of new rural road mileage in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is particularly prominent, doubling since 2010. The change of rural road mileage in northeast China, Beijing and Shanghai is relatively small. The spatial distribution of national, provincial and county highways in China is dense in the southeast and sparse in the northwest (Fig. 4.6). Affected by the natural terrain conditions, the coverage level of national roads in some areas of northwest China is poor. However, taking account of the rural population size of each provincial administrative region, the pattern is reversed. The differences among the provinces are very obvious. There is a polarisation pattern of surplus in the northwest and lack in the southeast (Fig. 4.7). The provincial administrative regions with the highest per-capita village road mileage are concentrated in the western region, including Tibet, Qinghai and Inner Mongolia. However, considering that these areas are vast and sparsely populated, it is reasonable to have high per-capita village road mileage. In northeast China, Heilongjiang and Jilin have a relatively high mileage of village roads per capita, and the rural transport infrastructure is relatively abundant. In the eastern and central regions, there are also internal differences among provinces. The per-capita road mileage of villages in Hubei and Shandong is relatively high, and the rural transport infrastructure is particularly good; while the per-capita road mileage of villages in Chongqing, Henan and Guangxi is relatively small, and it needs to be supplemented in future. Among them, Henan Province is densely populated, and the geomorphic conditions are mainly flat, but there is a very obvious gap between the per-capita rural road mileage in Henan and in the adjacent Shandong and other places, and there is weakness in village road construction. The per-capita rural road area follows a similar spatial pattern, that is, a surplus in the northwest and a lack in the southeast (Fig. 4.8). Compared with the per-capita rural road mileage, the pattern is different. The northwest and northeast provinces still show higher per-capita levels of rural infrastructure. The per-capita area of rural roads in Chongqing and Guizhou is relatively low. Considering that the topography of the two places is mainly hilly, it is necessary to strengthen the rural infrastructure further in future. In addition, the per-capita rural road area of Jiangsu Province in the east is also insufficient, the province is densely populated, the rural travel demand is large, and there is a certain infrastructure gap. In addition to the per-capita scale level, there are differences in the quality of rural roads in different provinces. The conditions of rural roads in some areas are generally poor and they lack scientific planning. Due to this lack of scientific planning, the highway quality is uneven, and the degree of scientific standardisation of highway planning and maintenance is not high. For example, the rural terrain and the distribution of farmers’ contracted areas lead to rural highways going in unreasonable directions, which eventually leads to traffic difficulties and poor highway

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Xinjiang Ningxia Qinghai Gansu Shaanxi Yunnan Guizhou Sichuan Chongqing Hainan Guangxi Guangdong Hunan Hubei Henan Shandong Jiangxi Fujian Anhui Zhejiang Jiangsu Shanghai Heilongjiang Jilin Liaoning Inner Mongolia Shanxi Hebei Tianjin Beijing 0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5 3 x 100,000

mileage (km) before 2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fig. 4.5 Changes in rural road mileage in China’s provincial administrative regions (km) (2010– 2016). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2016

quality. This kind of situation is very obvious in remote villages. Some roads are damaged by pits and fragmentation. Thus, it is difficult to ensure the safe passage of motor vehicles on rural roads. In rural areas, people’s awareness of transport construction standardisation is relatively weak (Zheng, 2018). What is more, it is difficult for local governments to expropriate land (Guo, 2001). The necessary compromise and concession if there is a lack of funds directly affect the efficiency and standardisation of road network

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Fig. 4.6 Distribution of highways in China (2018). Source Geographic data platform of Peking University

Fig. 4.7 Per-capita rural road mileage in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

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Fig. 4.8 Per-capita rural road area in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

construction, and it may also be responsible for many strange route layouts. In addition, the common people’s awareness of environmental protection and road maintenance is poor (Nan et al., 2011; Odongo Oronje et al., 2014), and there are some serious problems, such as piling up goods on rural roads and on both sides of roads, drying grain, washing cars with water, building houses and sheds, digging ditches and diverting water.

4.1.2 Rural Transport Investment Rural transport assessment remains an insufficiently explored key issue for cohesion (González-González & Nogués, 2019). Transport infrastructure investment in rural areas is often cautious. We find that the investment on road construction in rural areas is relatively insufficient, and the gap between urban and rural areas is obvious (Figs. 4.9 and 4.10). At present, the transport infrastructure in rural areas of China not only lags behind the cities, but also receives a far lower annual new investment than the cities. On a per-capita basis, rural areas receive less than a fifth of the investment in cities. In some areas, the budget for rural highway construction is insufficient, the financing is difficult, and it is impossible to raise private capital for rural highway construction without an expected return. The scale of China’s rural areas is very large. In some remote villages, the village-to-village project only covers the basic level of traffic.

4 Match Between Rural Transport and Population

x 100,000,000 CNY

108 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2015

2016 Rural

2017

2018

Urban

Fig. 4.9 Comparison of urban and rural investment in transport construction in China (100 million CNY) (2015–2018). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2018 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2015

2016 Rural

2017

2018

Urban

Fig. 4.10 Comparison of per-capita urban and rural investment in transport construction in China (CNY) (2015–2018). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2018

Given the total number of roads in rural areas, there may be a big gap between the quality of roads in rural areas and urban areas, and at the same time, huge maintenance pressures. There is a problem with extensive development in China’s rural transport construction that emphasises road construction but not road maintenance. On the one hand, the construction quality is not high, the construction scale is large, the investment is small, and there is a huge gap between the construction standard and quality and the cities and towns; on the other hand, there are unreasonable gaps in regional investment, and the construction investment is too large in sparsely populated areas of western China, which cannot match the actual travel needs of the people.

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In addition to the huge gap in funding between urban and rural areas, there are also differences among provinces (Fig. 4.11). At present, southwest provinces such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and other rural areas have higher transport construction funds, due to the lack of original infrastructure conditions in rural areas. Combined with the current situation in Guizhou and other places, the per-capita rural transport infrastructure level has actually been the highest in China. If we further maintain high construction investment, it may cause a surplus of rural roads in future. At the same time, there are still some provinces with poor basic conditions and insufficient capital investment. For example, many provinces in the Yellow River Basin have formed a collapse zone in the spatial pattern, including Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, etc. The per-capita rural road construction funds there are lower than other areas in the country, and this needs further attention. From the perspective of temporal changes in the 10 years from 2007 to 2017, China’s rural transport investment focused on Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan in the southwest and northwest provinces (Fig. 4.12). The resulting investment growth in Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan was the most prominent. After 10 years of continuous investment and construction, the rural transport infrastructure in southwest and northwest China has been greatly improved, the road network has been greatly improved, and the overall investment level has even ranked at the forefront of the country. However, the southeast region, with its better level of rural economic development and more vigorous rural travel demand, has a lower level of rural transport infrastructure. In future, we should consider a more reasonable space allocation for construction investment, let the idea of harmony with nature replace the idea of

Fig. 4.11 Per-capita investment in rural transport in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

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Fig. 4.12 Investment change in rural transport in different provinces of China (2007–2017). Source China Urban and Rural Construction Statistical Yearbook 2017

absolute equilibrium, and scale back the excessive rural transport construction in the western region.

4.1.3 Rural Public Transport Services Traditionally, China’s public transport services are focused in urban areas, but the coverage level in rural areas is relatively low, which leads to relatively inconvenient travel conditions for rural residents (Dalkmann et al., 2008). Compared with urban areas, the population density in rural areas is relatively low, and the travel demand of residents is also relatively low (Hough, 2007). In addition, in the past, the transport infrastructure in rural areas was relatively poor, so the development level of rural public transport was also relatively poor. With the development of the economy and the promotion of urban–rural integration, many areas began to expand public transport services to rural areas, which effectively improved the travel conditions of residents in rural areas. To investigate the development level of rural public transport in China, we use the web crawler tool to collect information on the public transport network (http:// www.gongjiao.com/). We crawl the names of public transport routes in Chinese cities and then use the Amap platform to obtain the vector data of public transport routes to evaluate the coverage level of rural public transport. From the visualised results

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(Fig. 4.13), there are obvious differences between urban and rural areas in public transport services, and most rural areas have not been covered by public transport services. There are obvious differences in rural public transport service in China. At the prefecture level (Fig. 4.14), the differences are mainly between large cities and small cities. The rural public transport service around big cities is generally good, while the rural public transport service around small- and medium-sized cities is generally poor. The administrative regions with rural bus lines over 100 km in length include Beijing, Tianjin, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Wuhan and Chengdu (Fig. 4.15). These cities are large in population and relatively high in economic and social development levels, which provides conditions for the extension of urban bus services to rural areas. In addition, the rural public transport services around the provincial capital cities are generally better than those around other cities. Compared with the difference between big and small cities, the regional differences in rural public transport service are not prominent, and the rural public transport service in the eastern coastal area is slightly better than that in other areas. On the proportion of rural public transport (Fig. 4.16), the differences between large and small cities are not prominent, and the differences are mainly in different regions. The proportion of rural public transport here refers to the percentage of the mileage of rural public transport lines in the total mileage of public transport lines within the administrative region. Generally speaking, the proportion of rural public

Fig. 4.13 Distribution of bus lines in China. Source Obtained from Baidu Map by the author using web crawler technology

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Fig. 4.14 Length of rural bus lines in different prefectures of China. Source Obtained from Baidu Map by the author using web crawler technology 1400

Bus line length (km)

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Xi'an

Fuzhou

Nanjing

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Tianjin

Wuhan

Xiamen

Qingdao

Hangzhou

Dongguan

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Fig. 4.15 Top 20 prefectures by rural bus line length (km). Source Obtained from Baidu Map by the author using web crawler technology

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transport in the south is higher than that in the north. The proportion of rural public transport in north China and northeast China is relatively low, generally below 40%. The terrain conditions of these areas are good, mainly level terrain, and the population density is relatively high, in particular, the rural population in north China is relatively large. However, the rural public transport service level in these areas is relatively poor, and it needs further improvement. In contrast, the rural public transport service is better in the hilly and mountainous areas of southern China. The improved rural public transport service in these areas alleviates the travel inconvenience caused by the natural terrain conditions. In the north, the proportion of rural public transport in Shaanxi Province is relatively high. However, the Loess Plateau and the Qinling Mountains have difficult terrain conditions. Although the terrain conditions in these areas are complex, the service level of rural public transport is relatively good. The cities with the longest bus network mileage are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (Fig. 4.17), which are also generally considered as the most important cities in China. The public transport services in these cities have basically achieved complete coverage, and the urban and rural public transport services have basically become integrated and equalised. Beijing has the longest and highest proportion of rural bus mileage among these four cities, and 55.21% of the bus mileage in Beijing is in rural areas. Shanghai has the best coverage of rural public transport. Most areas of Shanghai are level terrain, and most villages have public transport services within 1 km. High levels of rural public transport coverage are closely related to the efforts of local governments in improving the level of public transport service

Fig. 4.16 Proportion of bus lines in rural areas in different prefectures of China. Source Obtained from Baidu Map by the author using web crawler technology

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Fig. 4.17 Distribution of bus lines in four major cities in China. Source Obtained from Baidu Map by the author using web crawler technology

coverage. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have all set improving the overall coverage of public transport service as a development goal. For example, in the notice on promoting the construction and implementation of Four Good Rural Roads1 in Shanghai issued in 2018, Shanghai clearly stated that it is necessary strictly to ensure that every village has access to a bus. In addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the coverage level of rural public transport in some cities in eastern China is also very high. For example, Ningbo and Xiamen account for 60.42 and 55.97% of rural public transport, respectively, and they are the two cities with the highest proportion of rural public transport above the subprovincial level in China. As the spatial distribution shows (Fig. 4.18), except for some hilly areas, the public transport in these two places has basically achieved complete coverage within the administrative region. In addition to the full coverage of public transport within the city’s jurisdiction, the public transport of these cities has also been interconnected with the surrounding counties. For example, part of the public transport in Ningbo city extends to surrounding areas such as Yuyao 1

“Four Good Rural Roads” was proposed by President Xi on 4 March 2014. Xi pointed out that rural roads should be built, managed, protected and operated well.

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Fig. 4.18 Distribution of bus lines in Ningbo and Xiamen. Source Obtained from Baidu Map by the author using web crawler technology

and Cixi, breaking the restrictions of administrative division and bringing greater convenience to the travel of rural residents. At present, in addition to the imbalance of spatial coverage, there are other problems in the development of rural public transport in China. In some areas, the operation management level is low, the operational conditions are bad, and villagers’ travel experience is poor. Rural public transport is weak, and its development is restricted by operating costs, regional economic conditions and population density. To a large extent, the difference between rural public transport and urban public transport is due to the management system. Its disadvantages are more and more obvious, and it is difficult to meet the needs of the masses. In addition, road traffic conditions in rural areas are generally poorer than those in cities. Because of the road condition, overload and other factors, the safety of rural public transport is also alarming, as is prone to accidents. In some rural areas, the basic service facilities such as bus shelters are not sound, and they only use temporary boarding (Fig. 4.19). The departure frequency of some public buses is not fixed, which makes it inconvenient for villagers. Generally, no one maintains order in rural buses. When getting on the bus, due to the lack of relevant awareness of rural residents, chaos often occurs, which leads to the further decline of residents’ travel experience. Due to the low level of rural public transport service in some regions of China, self-driving and other informal modes of transport have become increasingly popular. When rural residents’ travel demands and public transport services cannot be covered, a large number of private vans and three-wheeled motorcycles are used instead in illegal operations. Some rural residents choose to travel by these illegal vehicles, especially in areas where the level of economic and social development is not high, the ownership rate of private cars is very low, and the road traffic conditions are relatively poor. In this case, the relatively flexible motorcycle has become the first choice for many villagers (Fig. 4.20). In addition, due to the low income of rural residents, many villagers are more willing to buy cheap vans than cars or SUVs (Fig. 4.21). This kind of van is similar to a small multi-purpose passenger vehicle,

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Fig. 4.19 Rural public transport service in Lin’an, Hangzhou. Source Zhejiang News. https://zj. zjol.com.cn/news.html?id=1368302

which is called a mianbaoche in China (Caron, 2013). In addition to the advantage of low price, it has a relatively large space, which is convenient for villagers to carry agricultural products and other goods. However, some illegal operators remove the seats in the van and run them overloaded in rural areas, which brings safety risks to villagers.

Fig. 4.20 Motorcycle travel in rural China. Source Leye Government. http://www.leye.gov.cn/ztzl/ lyxgaj/jfdt/t95750.shtml

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Fig. 4.21 Mianbaoche in rural China. Source Gaotaia Government. http://www.gaotai.gov.cn/yw/ bmdt/202204/t20220402_821585.html

Currently, there are three main rural public transport modes in China (Fig. 4.22). The first is coach mode, which is a traditional and the most common mode in rural areas. In this mode, the coach starts off at a fixed point according to the timetable. The starting point of the coach is usually the coach station in the city. The destination is the bus station in the countryside. This mode uses point-to-point operation. The main operators are usually state-owned enterprises. The second mode is bus mode. This mode is the common bus operation mode in the city. The bus leaves at regular intervals. There are bus stops in many places. In other words, this mode is the extension of urban public transport to rural areas. This mode usually appears around large cities with more developed economies. The main operator in this case is the public transport company. Some of these companies are state-owned enterprises and some are private enterprises. The last mode is unlicenced mode. This mode is a kind of informal transport. In some areas, rural public transport is operated by local villagers who have no passenger transport business licences. In this case, the operation route and ticket price are often arbitrary, and overload often occurs. This mode often appears in economically underdeveloped areas. Scholars hold varying opinions on whether rural road passenger transport should adopt the bus mode. First of all, some scholars believe that with the increasing demand of rural residents for passenger transport, rural public transport will become the development trend of rural passenger transport in future (Wang & Chen, 2008). At present, the main problem with rural passenger transport is the unreasonable allocation of transport capacity structure. Transport safety is not guaranteed, operating

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Fig. 4.22 Rural public transport modes in China

behaviour is not standardised, and operating costs are high. By unifying development planning, management mechanisms, tax and fee policies, resource allocation, bus service standards, and fare standards, and by implementing urban and rural bus integration, the present situation of rural passenger transport can be improved (Jiang, 2005). Many supporters have put forward more specific suggestions on urban and rural passenger transport. Chen (2001) proposed that rural passenger transport should adopt the bus mode and carry out five-fixed management, that is, fixed route, fixed point, fixed bus, fixed timing and fixed price to meet the needs of the new situation in the transport market. In their opinion, it is necessary to improve the policies and measures to support the development of rural public transport, and to promote the transformation of the rural passenger transport network and bus lines. For instance, Luo (2006) proposed to set up an integrated urban–rural bus operation mode with unified management, hierarchical planning and competitive bidding. However, some scholars are opposed to the transformation of rural passenger transport into the bus mode, as they consider it a wrong direction (Guo, 2007). The external environment between urban and rural areas is totally unequal, and there is a great difference between rural passenger transport and urban public transport. Rural passenger transport has poor efficiency and serious long-term losses, and operators are not enthusiastic. Vehicle operators have little interest and lack potential for development (Guo, 2007). Even if the same services are provided in the same business area, the two situations will be completely different. If only market regulation itself is relied on, it is difficult to implement public transport for rural road passengers and to integrate urban and rural public transport (Huang et al., 2006). Therefore, some scholars have put forward measures and suggestions. Wang et al. (2006) proposed that different levels of rural passenger transport lines should adopt different management and operation modes to meet the passenger transport needs of the line. Trunk lines with large and stable passenger flow connecting towns to the surrounding villages should be operated by public transport. Lines with small passenger flow should be organised with fixed-point minibuses. Rural passengers can

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be sent to the trunk bus point at fixed times every day. Then the branch line minibus and trunk bus routes can be integrated. Weng (2007) proposed to break through the inherent mode of rural passenger transport management and to implement flexible and diverse management forms to solve the contradiction between rural passenger transport capacity and transport volume to meet the transport needs of farmers who walk well and fast and to adopt special car operations on rural highways. In recent years, China has paid more attention to the development of rural public transport. In 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued Implementation Opinions on Further Giving Play to the Basic Supporting Role of Transport in Poverty Alleviation. These opinions pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of rural passenger stations and stops and to implement the key project of operating organic village buses. The opinions also stressed the need to focus on improving the coverage of basic public passenger transport services in poor areas. Specifically, poor areas with relatively high passenger flow density should gradually transition to the bus operation mode of rural passenger transport. The opinions state that it is necessary to promote rural shuttle buses to cities and urban public buses to the countryside actively. For a long time, the level of logistics and transport in rural areas has had shortcomings. In particular, express delivery and reception are more inconvenient than in the city. Rural logistics is a public product with close links to rural people’s livelihoods: it needs the cooperation of all departments and the active participation of all social organisations. Rural logistics is the channel and hub for agricultural products to go up and industrial products to go down. It is a springboard for the rural economy to connect to cross-border e-commerce service networks and to connect small markets to large markets. It is a reliable way for farmers to increase their income. It is a power transmission belt to drive farmers to update their business concepts and to rush to modern civilised life. It is an important symbol of rural agricultural modernisation. To solve the problem of rural logistics, the Ministry of Transport, the State Post Office and China Post Group jointly issued Opinions on Deepening the Integration of Transport and Postal Express to Promote the High-Quality Development of Rural Logistics in 2019, proposing the promotion of rural bus agent express mail. At present, some areas are using rural public transport for express mail. For example, Zhangjiagang in Suzhou has opened a bus post road, which uses the spare space on rural buses to set up express delivery points (Fig. 4.23) to realise bus post road distribution. To avoid the morning and evening peak passenger flow, Suzhou bus post road receives and delivers express parcels around 8:30 a.m. and after 2:00 p.m. every day. All express parcels are pre-screened and disinfected before being put into mailbags. The opening of the bus post road has not only greatly improved the convenience for rural residents, but also effectively improved the delivery efficiency and reduced the cost of running enterprises. The application of emerging information technology has promoted the intelligence and convenience of rural public transport in some areas. In some areas, big data, the internet of things (IOT), GIS and other technologies have been applied to the operation management and service of rural public transport, realising the technology

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Fig. 4.23 Rural express using buses in Zhangjiagang, Suzhou. Source Suzhou post administration. http://jssz. spb.gov.cn/dtxx_3705/202 011/t20201112_3474874. html

sharing of information, helping villagers to grasp the real-time information on public transport better. The application of new technology is helping to improve the utilisation efficiency of rural public transport resources, making the public transport travel of rural residents more convenient and faster. However, the current application of new technology is only happening in a few pilot areas, and it has not been further promoted in China. In future, the successful experience of these pilot areas needs to be promoted further to the whole country.

4.2 General Process of Rural Transport Development Li and Fan (2006) and Wang et al. (2013) reviewed the development process of rural roads in China after the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The development of rural transport in China can basically be divided into the primary development stage, slow development stage, rapid development stage and synchronous development stage as regards both quantity and quality. With the acceleration of economic development in rural areas, rural roads have experienced development ranging from popularisation to improvement, from low to high levels. At the same time, the development of rural roads has made positive contributions to farmers’ prosperity and agricultural vitalisation, and it has become the epitome of rural economic development (Cao, 2014). Generally speaking, the construction of rural transport in China has experienced a gradual change from quantity to quality. Combined with the new changes in rural transport construction in recent years, the development of rural transport in China has gone through the following stages. The first stage (1955–1977) was the primary development stage. From the founding of the People’s Republic of China to the reform and opening up, it was a period in which China’s rural road network was initially formed. The development

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of rural roads was extremely slow, and the low level of national economic development led to a low level of dependence on and demand for rural roads. At the same time, due to the limited economic strength, the central and local governments at all levels made little investment in the construction and maintenance of rural roads. Rural highway construction mainly depended on motivating and organising local farmers to put their labour into practice. During this period, the rural highway construction standard was low, and the quantity of roads was small, as it was only a development stage focusing on the opening of roads and paying attention to quantity. At the beginning of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the total mileage of roads in China was about 80,000 kms, and the number of rural roads was extremely limited. By 1977, the number of rural roads in China was 559,000 kms, accounting for 65.35% of the total highway mileage in China. The second stage (1978–1991) was the slow development stage. From 1978– 1991, due to a lack of funds, China focused on the construction of highways, national trunk highways and other roads, and rural roads grew slowly, mainly with non-class, low-grade, and unpaved roads accounting, and the average annual growth rate of rural roads was only 1.6%, which represented slow growth. The proportion of rural highway mileage to total highway mileage of China was below 70%. During the “Seventh Five-Year Plan “period, the Ministry of Communications allocated 150 million CNY to build rural roads. By 1990, more than 2,200 counties, with Medog in Tibet being a notable exception, had access to roads, but only 96% of towns and 74% of administrative villages had access to roads. This slow development process was incompatible with the development speed of the rural economy at the time. Driven by factors such as the construction of well-off villages, rural reforms and the development of township enterprises, “to be rich, build roads first” became the most urgent wish of the vast rural areas in the development of rural transport in China. “Rich or not, depending on the highway”. The construction of rural roads became an important symbol to measure the level of local positive development at that time. Therefore, in the 1990s, rural highway construction began to enter a rapid development stage. In addition, in terms of rural passenger transport services, the rural passenger transport market attracted a large number of self-employed operators because of its low opening cost, low entry threshold and relatively stable economic benefits. It has brought convenience to urban and rural transport and occupied the whole of the rural passenger transport market. In addition, self-employed operators who were mainly engaged in caravan transport began to lead rural passenger transport. During this period, some farmers overcame their difficulty in travelling. However, the corresponding policies and financial guarantees were lacking, and infrastructure construction such as roads, stations, lines and other passenger transport facilities was insufficient, resulting in deficient capacity, safety and service quality. At the same time, due to the lack of supervision, the passenger transport market was chaotic, mainly operated by the self-employed, and it lacked large-scale enterprises that could play a leading role. The third stage (1992–2002) was the rapid development stage. Deng Xiaoping’s South Tour Speeches in 1992 and the 14th CPC National Congress clearly defined the goal of China’s reform of the economic system. China took solving the “three rural issues “as its main aim to guide the development and construction of rural areas.

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The country successively issued relevant regulations and policies to promote and standardise the development of rural roads. With the rapid development of China’s rural economy, tougher requirements were put forward for the construction of rural roads. The country increased its support for the construction of rural roads, which had entered a stage of rapid development. In 1994, China began to implement the Eighth Seven-Year Plan for Poverty Alleviation. From 1996 to 2000, the state invested about 700 million CNY each year, mainly for rural road construction in national povertystricken counties. From 1992 to 2002, the average annual growth rate of rural roads was 6.2%, which was obviously faster than the 1.6% in the first stage. The proportion of rural roads in the total highway mileage of China increased from 69.2% in 1992 to 75.7% in 2002. With the improvement in road conditions and increased transport capacity on rural roads, especially the realisation of asphalt roads in townships, shuttle passenger transport entered the market and occupied a large share of passenger transport to the countryside. Accordingly, caravans were gradually eliminated. The improvement in road surfaces and vehicle grade improved the rural passenger transport market. In 1998, the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council issued Document No.3, Notice on Standardising Highway Passenger and Cargo Surcharge and Increasing Highway Construction Funds, which stipulated, “in the provinces that have levied highway passenger transportation surcharges, the levy standard can be increased by 0.01 CNY per kilometre on the current basis”. The levy target was passengers. Therefore, this adjustment caused a market imbalance, highlighting the problem of excess capacity in the rural passenger transport market. For this reason, the transport department strengthened management and market access was strictly controlled. Rural shuttle passenger transport thus entered a relatively stable period. With the attention paid by passengers and management departments to transport safety, new van taxis and three-wheeled motorcycle taxis were gradually eliminated. In the fourth stage (2003–2012), the focus was on the synchronous development of quantity and quality. During this period, China’s rural roads experienced sound and rapid development. By the end of 2005, the national rural road mileage was 560,000 kms, accounting for 36% of the village road mileage; 360,000 kms of roads with high-grade and subgrade roads accounted for 12% of rural roads. Since 2006, rural roads in China have been included in the statistics, and their average annual growth rate from 2006 to 2010 was 3.75%. In 2010, 99.9% of the towns and 99.2% of the administrative villages in China had roads. During this period, the government and transport departments strengthened supervision over the rural passenger transport market, with relevant policies and regulations issued one after another. In 2001, in the Outline of Development Plan for Road Transportation Industry (2001– 2010), the former Ministry of Communications put forward that rural transport should aim at “providing country buses to every village”, guiding the rational distribution of transport capacity, developing vehicles with good safety performance, economy and reliability that were adapted to rural roads; also guiding rural passenger transport operators to set up standardised joint-stock cooperative enterprises. They should take the county as the unit, adapt to the reduction and exemption of transport taxes and fees for rural passenger vehicles, unify the planning of routes and station times, guide car transport enterprises to head down, develop circular bus routes from cities to towns,

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administrative villages and bazaars and promote the development of rural passenger transport. In 2003, the network pilot project of rural passenger transport started. The Notice on Accelerating the Development of Rural Passenger Transportation and Launching the Network Pilot Project of Rural Passenger Transport, which is a key node for the development of rural passenger transport, set up a network pilot project of rural passenger transport. In 2004, the State Council promulgated the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Road Transport. It declared the end of the era when the development of road transport only depended on departmental regulations and local laws, which indicated that China’s road transport had taken an extremely important step towards legalisation, which was a new milestone in the construction of China’s transport legal system. Since then, the former Ministry of Communications has issued two industry standards, Structure and Performance General Requirements for Country Buses and Classification and Construction Requirements of Passenger Stations, which pushed the bus standards and the rural passenger transport market into standardised development. So far, the rural bus policy has gradually formed a system. In 2005, the former Ministry of Communications promulgated the Regulations on the Management of Road Passenger Transportation and Passenger Stations, which set specific requirements for the business licences of road passenger transport and stations, the grade and quantity of passenger cars, and the management of passenger vehicles. In 2008 and 2009, it was revised twice. During this period, the focus of the development of rural passenger transport was to improve the intensification and specialisation level of the market through corporatisation. The government and transport departments increased their support, by simplifying the examination and approval procedures, reducing and exempting transport fees, government direct investment and financial transfer payments, and guiding scientific and technological progress, etc., to smooth the integration channels of the rural passenger transport market and to guide the rural road passenger transport work. The fifth stage (2013–present) is a key period for the balanced development of urban and rural areas and poverty alleviation. The growth ratio of rural roads is slowing down, but the detailed optimisation of road facilities and the construction of the urban and rural transport system are becoming clearer. In this stage, China is shifting from the large-scale construction stage to the comprehensive optimisation stage of “construction, maintenance, protection and transportation”, and paying attention to the integration of urban and rural transport. In the past five years, 1.275 million kilometres of rural roads have been newly rebuilt in China, and 99.24% of towns and 98.34% of villages have asphalt (or concrete) roads, which has greatly promoted the solution to difficult travel in rural areas. While remarkable achievements have been made, the state has also considered the unbalanced regional development of rural highway construction, insufficient safety protection and construction quality. In particular, construction in poverty-stricken areas, ethnic minority areas and border areas are receiving top priority, showing a determination to build a thoroughly welloff society by 2020. During this period, breaking the dual barriers between urban and rural areas and speeding up the process of urban–rural integration have become the main theme of the times. Urban–rural passenger transport services have been given an important position in improving people’s livelihood and poverty alleviation’s

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mission. In 2014, the construction of Four Good Rural Roads put forward by General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasised the important tasks of “construction, management, protection and transportation”, and good operation has become the focus of rural transport development. In 2014, the Rules for Auditing the Safe Passage Conditions of Rural Passenger Transportation Lines made clear the technical conditions, safety facilities, technical requirements of vehicles and speed limits of operation. In April 2016, the Ministry of Transport revised the Regulations on the Management of Road Passenger Transportation and Passenger Stations, further emphasising that rural passenger transport lines can be operated in a more flexible way than urban passenger transport lines in terms of operating areas, lines and stations. In 2017, in the supervision and grading content of Four Good Rural Roads, setting bus routes that pass through villages was regarded as a key task assigned by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in 2017, and one of the four important tasks to ensure that transport has more impact on people’s livelihoods. It was proposed to implement 4,000 newly added bus routes passing through villages and to achieve the goal of 100% bus passing rate in qualified towns and villages by 2020. At the same time, it was clear that the specific tasks of good operation are passenger transport safety, integration of urban and rural passenger transport, construction of a logistics network and construction of a comprehensive service station for township passenger transport. In 2017, the Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the Development Plan of Modern Integrated Transport System in the 13th Five-Year Plan and the Guiding Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Three-Year Action on Winning the Fight against Poverty in 2018 both put forward the clear requirement that “all qualified established villages will be provided with buses by 2020”. In 2018, the Notice on Accelerating the Work of Bus-Passing in Administrative Villages pointed out that providing bus routes in established villages is a service to enhance the livelihoods of the vast masses of peasants, which is of great significance for improving their living conditions, enhancing their sense of gain and promoting the modernisation of agriculture and rural areas.

4.3 Regional Matching Between Rural Transport and Population 4.3.1 Rural Road Network Change and Rural Population The growth in travel demand is driven by population growth (Metz, 2012). Transport networks link society, technology and the environment, and they form the basis for the competitiveness and prosperity of a national economy (Kuckshinrichs, 2011). Transport network construction should be in line with the growth of travel demand. The significant relationship between the road network and the dynamics of rural demography has been recognised by scholars (Thanga, 2015). To plan and build a

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more efficient rural road network, it is necessary to analyse the matching between the existing rural road network and the population. We find that China’s rural road mileage change does not match the population change in space. The population of some provinces is rapidly declining, but the process of rural road construction is speeding up, and the opposite is true in some provinces. We focus on the matching level of rural population change and rural road mileage change in each province since 2010 and find that there is a considerable degree of spatial mismatch between them (Fig. 4.24). By standardising the change rate in rural population and the change rate of rural road mileage, we can see that the rural population in Chongqing, Jiangxi and Shandong is reducing rapidly while the rural road mileage is increasing rapidly, and that the rural population in Qinghai is increasing slowly while the rural road mileage is increasing rapidly. The population of rural areas in Jiangsu, Shaanxi and Henan is reducing rapidly, while the mileage of rural roads is increasing slowly. The progress of rural road construction in northeast and south China is insufficient (Table 4.1). The increase in rural roads in Jilin and Heilongjiang in northeast China and Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan in south China is very limited, but the decline in the rural population is less obvious. The base of rural road mileage per capita in Guangdong, Guangxi and Heilongjiang is also low. It is worth paying attention to these provinces and regions in future and speeding up construction to make up for the shortcomings. In Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Guizhou and other provinces with population outflow, the process of rural road construction is relatively fast despite the serious decline in the rural population. By contrast with northeast and south China, the rural population in some provinces has decreased rapidly, but in recent years, the rural road construction has continued rapidly. These provinces include Anhui, Ningxia, 4

Population change (standardised value)

Fig. 4.24 Standardised scatterplot of rural road mileage change and rural population change (2010–2016)

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-2

-1 0 1 2 3 Road mileage change (standardised value)

4

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Table 4.1 Match between rural road mileage change and rural population change in China’s provincial administrative regions (2010–2016) Low–low matching Both population and roads are decreasing

High–low mismatching The population is reducing, while road building is increasing

Jiangsu, Shanxi, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Yunnan, Henan, Hubei

Anhui, Ningxia, Hunan, Guizhou, Hebei, Shandong, Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia

Low–high mismatching The population is increasing, while road building is decreasing

High–high matching Both population and roads are increasing

Heilongjiang, Jilin, Beijing, Shanghai, Hainan, Guangdong, Tianjin, Guangxi, Xinjiang

Qinghai

Hunan, Guizhou, Hebei, Shandong, Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangxi, Gansu and Inner Mongolia. Except for Inner Mongolia and Shandong, most of these provinces have serious population outflows. However, the rural road mileage per capita in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other provincial administrative regions is also high, so it is suggested that evaluations of the benefits of road construction should be fully incorporated when planning new construction.

4.3.2 Rural Transport Investment and Rural Population Decision-makers usually hope that transport investment will bring about certain benefits (Banister & Berechman, 2003). The change in the road network is the result of changes in construction investment. In recent decades, investment in transport infrastructure in China has improved substantially. Both the central and local governments have become actively involved in the development of transport infrastructure (Li et al., 2016). Unlike many Western countries, China’s infrastructure investment is very large and heavily government-directed. Some scholars have reported that infrastructure investment management in China is poor and that this kind of excess investment can lead to the risk of an economic crisis (Ansar et al., 2016). However, other scholars have argued that the investment return on roads in China improves over time and that there are positive spatial spillovers (Li et al., 2017). In this section, we evaluate the spatial matching between rural transport investment and rural population growth in China. According to our analysis, the change in rural transport investment in China does not match the change of population in space. The population in some provinces is rapidly declining, but the investment in rural transport construction there is very large. We study the matching levels of the relationship between rural population change and transport investment change in each province since 2010 and find that there is obvious spatial mismatching between them (Fig. 4.25). By standardising the change

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rates of rural population and transport investment, we can see that both the rural population and the investment in rural transport construction in Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Xinjiang increased slowly or even decreased. The rural population in Guizhou and Yunnan decreased rapidly while the investment in rural transport construction increased rapidly. The rural population in Hainan and Guangxi increased slowly while the investment in rural transport construction decreased. The population of rural areas in Jiangsu, Shaanxi and Henan declined rapidly, while the investment in rural transport construction increased slowly. The rural transport investment in northeast China, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangzhou is relatively insufficient, which does not match the trend of population change (Table 4.2). Jilin and Heilongjiang in northeast China, Qinghai and Xinjiang in northwest China, and Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Guangdong have less investment in rural transport, but the decline of their rural population is not very obvious. Among them, Qinghai and Xinjiang are relatively weak areas, so investment needs to be focused better. In some developed provinces and cities in northeast and east China, although the rural transport infrastructure is good, there is still a demand for further investment and quality improvement in these areas, especially in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Some provinces have a large amount of investment in rural transport construction, but a serious outflow of population and a relatively limited travel demand. These provinces include Guizhou, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Gansu and Ningxia, which are in the southwest and northwest regions. It is true that the original rural transport infrastructure in these provinces was relatively weak, but after continuous investment and construction in the past, rural transport conditions have greatly improved. The natural terrain in these areas is bad, and the same construction mileage needs a higher construction investment; most of these areas are also losing 4

Population change (standardised value)

Fig. 4.25 Standardised scatterplot of rural transport investment and rural population change (2010–2017)

3

2

1

0

-1

-2 -1

0

1 2 3 4 Investment change (standardised value)

5

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Table 4.2 Match between rural transport construction investment and rural population in China’s provincial administrative regions (2010–2017) Low–low matching Both population and investment are decreasing

High–low mismatching The population is reducing while the investment is increasing

Shanxi, Hunan, Fujian, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Guizhou, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Henan, Liaoning, Chongqing, Hebei, Sichuan, Gansu, Ningxia Anhui, Shandong, Hubei Low–high mismatching The population is increasing while the investment is decreasing

High–high matching Both population and investment are increasing

Shanghai, Beijing, Heilongjiang, Qinghai, Tianjin, Hainan, Guangxi Jilin, Guangdong, Xinjiang

population, and the phenomenon of rural decline is becoming increasingly prominent; these areas have fragile ecological environments, and their resource carrying capacity is limited. Therefore, if we continue to maintain high investment growth and extensive construction in these areas, the investment benefit will be very low, which may cause the local government serious financial deficit pressure, and the road network maintenance problem may be very difficult in future.

4.4 Summary The main conclusions of our research in this chapter are as follows. (1) China’s rural road network is gradually increasing, but there are obvious regional differences in road network density and per-capita road network, and both excess and deficiency exist. The western region is mainly marked by travel difficulties caused by rugged terrain and the low travel demand caused by a scarcity of villagers. The eastern coastal area is mainly characterised by high travel demand caused by high population density. (2) Although the level of social and economic development in west China is low, with continuous investment from the state, the rural road network has been greatly improved. The improvement in transport conditions has promoted the vitalisation of rural areas in central and western China. (3) There are regional differences in the service levels of rural public transport in China, and the rural public transport service in the areas surrounding big cities is better than that in other areas. Some new technologies have been introduced into the operation and management of rural public transport in China, which has effectively improved the transport efficiency.

References

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(4) China’s rural transport investment and construction are concentrated in the southwest and west regions, and considering the population size, this is relatively ahead of other regions. In this context, we need to think about how to balance fairness and efficiency.

References Ansar, A., Flyvbjerg, B., Budzier, A., et al. (2016). Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 32(3), 360–390. Banister, D., & Berechman, J. (2003). Transport investment and economic development. Routledge. Cao, X. (2014). Rural development in China: Rural transportation accessibility and its impact. Hongkong Joint Publishing. (in Chinese). Caron, E. (2013). Interactions between Chengguan and street vendors in Beijing. How the unpopularity of an administration affects relations with the public. China Perspectives, 2013(1), 17–28. Chen, X. (2001). Integration of rural passenger transport. Transportation Enterprise Management, 4, 21. (in Chinese). Dalkmann, H., Hutfilter, S., Vogelpohl, K., et al. (2008). Sustainable mobility in rural China. Journal of Environmental Management, 87(2), 249–261. González-González, E., & Nogués, S. (2019). Long-term differential effects of transport infrastructure investment in rural areas. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 125, 234–247. Guo, X. (2001). Land expropriation and rural conflicts in China. The China Quarterly, 166, 422–439. Guo, X. (2007). Do not advocate the bus mode of rural passenger transport too much. Transport Business China, 7, 82. (in Chinese). Hough, J. A. (2007). Realized travel demand and relative desired mobility of elderly women in rural and small urban North Dakota. University of California. Huang, L., Li, X., & He, J. (2006). Discussion on some problems of urban and rural public transport integration. Planners, 3, 75–78. (in Chinese). Jiang, B. (2005). Analysis and countermeasures of rural passenger transport. Public Security Science Journal, 5, 74–75. (in Chinese). Kuckshinrichs, W. (2011). Introduction to infrastructure and demography (InfraDem) (pp. 1–8). Springer. Li, S.-M., & Shum, Y.-M. (2001). Impacts of the national trunk highway system on accessibility in China. Journal of Transport Geography, 9(1), 39–48. Li, X., & Fan, Z. (2006). Review and prospect of rural highway development in China. Transport World, 10, 26–28. (in Chinese). Li, T., Yang, W., Zhang, H., et al. (2016). Evaluating the impact of transport investment on the efficiency of regional integrated transport systems in China. Transport Policy, 45, 66–76. Li, Z., Wu, M., & Chen, B. R. (2017). Is road infrastructure investment in China excessive? Evidence from productivity of firms. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 65, 116–126. Luo, J. (2006). Study on town public transport planning in China. Changan University. (in Chinese) Metz, D. (2012). Demographic determinants of daily travel demand. Transport Policy, 21, 20–25. Nan, W., Banghong, Z., & Haifen, Y. (2011). A research on impacting factor of rural environment and environment protection awareness of famers. Energy Procedia, 5, 2623–2628. Odongo Oronje, D., Rambo, C. M., & Odundo, P. A. (2014). Community awareness, participation and perceptions about the road maintenance levy fund projects in Kenya. Global Journal of Business Research, 8(2), 97–109.

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Samanta, P. K. (2015). Development of rural road infrastructure in India. Pacific Business Review International, 7(11), 86–93. Thanga, J. L. (2015). Rural demography and road connectivity: An analysis. Rural Demography, 6(2), 27. Wang, J., Guo, X., Wu, N., et al. (2006). Analyses on the characteristic of the village passenger transportation flow and organization mode. In Proceedings of the 6th international conference of transportation professionals. Wang, J., & Chen, C. (2008). How to get out of the dilemma of rural public transport. Transportation Enterprise Management, 1, 10–11. (in Chinese). Wang, W., Cao, X., & Huang, X. (2013). Research on rural road development in China and its impact factors from 1980 to 2010. Economic Geography, 33(3), 22–27. (in Chinese). Weng, M. (2007). Develop rural passenger transport and promote the construction of new countryside. Transport World, 10, 36–37. (in Chinese). Zheng, C. (2018). Thoughts on the construction of “village to village roads” in rural areas. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, IOP.

Chapter 5

Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

5.1 Transition of the Rural Population’s Composition Population composition is the description of the characteristics of a group such as their age, sex, marital status, education, occupation and relationship to the head of household (Donner & Rodríguez, 2008; Henderson, 1986; Perez & Hirschman, 2009). Population composition is also known as population structure or demographic structure in some literature (Poston et al., 2012; Poterba, 1997, 2001). The age and gender composition of population are the most widely studied factors. In fact, in many cases, demographic structure refers specifically to the age structure of the population (D’Albis, 2007). As a result, in this chapter, population composition rather than population structure or demographic structure refers to this concept. Specifically, it discusses gender structure, age structure, family structure and education structure in rural China.

5.1.1 Gender Structure The gender ratio of the rural population is relatively stable. Since the beginning of this century, the proportion of females has first increased and then stabilised (Fig. 5.1). The overall gender structure of China’s rural population shows that the proportion of males is higher than that of females. The proportion of females is about 48–49%, which is consistent with that of the urban population. The proportion of females increased slightly in the early years of this century, and then, the proportion of females remained 2–3% lower than that of males. The female proportion in rural areas once exceeded that of the whole country (Fig. 5.2). In the early years of this century, the proportion of females in rural China increased significantly, but the proportion of females in the whole country reduced slightly. In subsequent years, the proportion of females in rural areas exceeded the proportion in the whole country, indicating that the proportion of females in rural © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_5

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male

female

Fig. 5.1 Changes in gender ratio of the rural population in China (2001–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

areas was higher than that in urban areas. In China, there is a traditional population gender concept of “son preference”,1 which is more serious in rural areas. However, since the beginning of this century, the proportion of females in rural areas has been higher, indicating that on the one hand, the concept of “son preference” in rural areas may gradually be fading; on the other hand, this may be because rural males generally go to cities to work. In recent years, the proportion of females in rural areas has gradually returned to the overall level of the country, indicating that the situation of rural male migrant workers has eased. The proportion of females in rural areas in northern China is relatively higher (Fig. 5.3), while that in the central and western regions is increasing (Fig. 5.4). The proportion of females in rural areas in northern China is relatively high, which may be related to the higher proportion of males going to work in cities in these areas. It may also be related to the heavy traditional concepts of “son preference” in some southern provinces. Among the Northern provinces, the highest proportions are in Inner Mongolia and Tibet. In addition, the proportion of females in rural areas of Jiangsu, Shandong and Liaoning, which are on the eastern coast, is relatively high. This may be related to the balance between males and females in the overall population in these areas. In recent years, the proportion of females in the central and western regions has continued to increase, especially in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet and other border areas. In the eastern region, except for Fujian, Beijing, Tianjin and a few other provinces and cities, the proportion of females in rural areas has generally declined.

1

For thousands of years, a preference for sons has been prevalent in China. Sons are preferred because they have a higher wage earning capacity, especially in agrarian economies, they continue the family line, and they are generally recipients of inheritance. Daughters are seen as an economic burden, because of the dowry system, and after marriage, they typically become members of their husbands’ families, ceasing to have responsibility for parents in old age.

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49.2% 49.0% 48.8% 48.6% 48.4% 48.2%

Female proportion in China

Female proportion in rural China

Fig. 5.2 Comparison between the proportion of females in the rural population and in the whole country (2001–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Fig. 5.3 Proportion of females in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

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Fig. 5.4 Proportion change of females in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Although the gender structure in rural areas is similar to that in urban areas as a whole, the proportion of rural females is relatively higher in some areas. This leads to the phenomenon of rural left-behind females in China (Yu et al., 2011). Rural leftbehind females are married females left at home by their husbands leaving for urban cities to work. This concept is similar to the English slang of “grass widow”. Lagging female migration is likely due in part to females’ occupational options as migrants tending to be inferior to males’ (Fan, 2003). What is more, females left behind in rural areas are doing more farm work. This reallocation of left-behind females’ time entails more hours in farm work at the cost of fewer hours in local off-farm work (Mu & Van de Walle, 2011). Some scholars have reported that the phenomenon of rural left-behind females has led to some social problems such as higher sexually transmitted infections (Wei et al., 2014). Others have found that there are widespread mental health problems in the remaining rural females (Shu et al., 2013). As shown in the previous data analysis, this phenomenon may have been particularly serious between 2000 and 2010. However, in the past decade, the gender imbalance in rural areas has ceased to be a national phenomenon and become a local one.

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Case: Rural Females Get Rid of Poverty by Starting Businesses in Bengbu, Anhui Province In Guzhen County, Anhui Province, Zhang Tingting of the Chuanhong Weaving Cooperative is well known. She has been working hard for many years. She sees making social contributions her responsibility, and she demonstrates the elegant demeanor of females who are not inferior to males through unremitting efforts. She has become the leader of local poor people’s efforts to escape from poverty and become richer. She has found a good way to promote female entrepreneurship and employment. After graduating from University, Zhang Tingting went back to her home town to start a business. She saw that rural families were trying to solve the problem of food and clothing by relying on a few acres of land. If females went out to work, older people and children were not taken care of at home. If they could get flexible work at home, these families would escape poverty and become richer faster. Zhang Tingting discovered that some small handicrafts in Yiwu Market in Zhejiang are suitable for rural left-behind females. Zhang Tingting and her mother set up the Chuanhong knitting cooperative females’ entrepreneurship and employment base. Manual work has a low employment threshold, but the cooperative had no funds to provide knitting materials and tools. If rural females were employed at home, they could gradually emerge from poverty and become richer. Facing the problems of lack of funds, lack of experience, low educational levels and poor ability among most rural females, Zhang Tingting organized a team at night to optimize processing technology and to improve work efficiency. She also organized young and skillful females to study and train in foreign weaving factories, so they could comprehensively improve female employment and entrepreneurship prospects and create better and more convenient work and income increasing conditions for females at home. Through more than two years of efforts, her business philosophy has developed from scratch. Her business grew from small to large. With gradual resource sharing and technical information exchange, the influence of Chuanhong weaving cooperatives expanded to surrounding villages. To date, the cooperative has promoted the employment of more than 300 left-behind females, Zhang Tingting has been rated as Bengbu’s best female entrepreneur, and the cooperative has been rated as Bengbu’s best female training base.

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5.1.2 Age Structure In rural areas, the population is ageing and the proportion of young adults is continuing to decline (Fig. 5.5). Since the beginning of this century, the population of 0–14-year-olds in rural areas of China has first declined and then stabilised. After a rapid decline in the first 10 years of this century, the proportion of the population of this age group has gradually stabilised at about 20% in rural areas. At the same time, the proportion of the older population over 65 years old in rural areas has continued to rise, and the momentum has not stopped, but there is a tendency towards further improvement. This shows that the ageing of rural areas in China is still deepening rapidly. The proportion of young adults aged 15–64 in rural areas of China has changed from increasing to decreasing since 2010, and it is continuing to decline. This shows that the demographic dividend in China’s rural areas has ended and that the working-age population is diminishing. The proportion of children in rural areas of central and western China is relatively higher (Fig. 5.6), but it is in a faster decline (Fig. 5.7). The proportion of children in rural areas in the central and western regions is higher than that in the eastern and northeast regions. The low birth rate in these areas is less serious than that in the eastern and northeast regions. Northeast China developed relatively early. Beijing and the Yangtze River Delta in the east have a relatively high level of development. The willingness to have children in these areas is relatively low. However, although the proportion of children in rural areas in the central and western regions is relatively high, the rate of decline has been more rapid in recent years. That is to say, in the future, they will also face the same dilemma of fewer children as in the northeast and

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80% 70%

Proportion

60% 50% 40% 30%

0-14 15-64 >65

20% 10% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Fig. 5.5 Age structure change of rural population in China (2000–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

eastern regions. Only in Xinjiang is the proportion of children in rural areas high, and the proportion is still rising. One important reason is that the fertility policy in Xinjiang and other minority areas is more open. Ethnic minorities, especially in rural areas, have been allowed to have more children (Bulte et al., 2011). At the same time, local residents in these areas are more willing to have children because of the low cost of raising them. This indicates that the rural areas of Xinjiang continue to maintain a high birth rate. The proportion of young adults in rural areas in northeast China is relatively high (Fig. 5.8), but it is continuing to decline in most parts of the country (Fig. 5.9). The proportion in northeast and its surrounding areas is higher. Unlike the general impression, the proportion of rural young adults in northeast China is relatively high, and the proportion in Heilongjiang Province is the highest. The proportion of young adults in rural areas is relatively low in southwest and north China. Except for Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan, all the other provincial administrative regions are facing declines in the proportion of rural young adults in varying degrees. This shows that it will be difficult for China’s vast rural areas to continue to provide surplus labour in the future. Rural ageing is the most serious in coastal areas of east China and along the Yangtze River (Fig. 5.10), and the country is in the process of deepening rural ageing (Fig. 5.11). The proportion of the rural older population in Jiangsu, Shanghai, Shandong, Zhejiang and other provinces along the coast of east China, and Chongqing, Sichuan and other provinces along the Yangtze River is the highest. The proportion of rural older population in the western frontier provinces is relatively low. However, in recent years, the proportion of the rural older population in almost all provinces of China has been rising rapidly. The proportion of rural older population in northeast China and Chongqing has increased by more than 5 percentage points since 2010. In addition, the increase rate in other provinces is generally faster than the decrease

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Fig. 5.6 Proportion of the population aged 0–14 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Fig. 5.7 Proportion of change of the population aged 0–14 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

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Fig. 5.8 Proportion of the population aged 15–64 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Fig. 5.9 Proportion change of the population aged 15–64 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

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Fig. 5.10 Proportion of the population aged over 65 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

rate of the proportion of children. This shows that rural ageing has become a core problem of population composition in China. Ageing has become a major issue in China’s rural development, and it has attracted the attention of many scholars (Benjamin et al., 2000; Zhong, 2011). Compared with the aged in urban areas, the aged in rural areas have low incomes and are subject to social security deficiencies (Qu et al., 2012). Currently, economic security for the aged population is insufficient and resources for the aged are lacking in rural China. Ageing farmers also increasingly face problems with farmland succession and usage (Zou et al., 2018). It is reported that rural empty nesters’ inability to access adequate social service and home care leads to their poor subjective well-being (Liang et al., 2020). Due to the shortage of rural medical resources, many rural older people have to go to cities for medical treatment, which increases the load on urban medical resources (Hu et al., 2020). Although rural ageing has led to many social problems, at the same time, there are also advantages of active ageing in rural China. For instance, industrialisation and modernisation provided opportunities for older people in rural Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, to make a temple leisure space and an older people’s porter centre (Chen et al., 2021). In these places, they reconfigure everyday practices and aged identities as “modern subjects” and “good parents”. Generally speaking, the problem of rural left-behind older people is a more serious and widespread problem than rural left-behind females in China. With the continuous decline of China’s natural population growth rate, rural ageing will be a major problem for all regions in China in the coming decades.

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Fig. 5.11 Proportion change of the population aged over 65 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Case: Agricultural Mechanization to Cope With Rural Ageing in Jinan, Shandong Province Xiaoli Town, Jinan, Shandong Province, has always been a big labour export town. Due to the process of ageing and urbanization, it is facing concerns over who will farm and how to farm. Although the ageing of rural population and the loss of the young and middle-aged labour force has led to the relative decline of the quality of agricultural labour force generally, it has also led to the promotion of mechanized production in rural areas. Take the corn combine harvester as an example. In the past, it was rare for a village in Xiaoli to have a corn combine harvester with tens of horsepower. However, in recent years, under the preferential policy of a 30% national subsidy, the 70-horsepower combine harvester has been rapidly promoted. Today, in Guangli village, Xiaoli, which has only 3,000 people, there are more than 10 large, 100-horsepower machines. “In the past, the corn harvest took a month and a half, but now it is finished in just 10 days with machinery”. Xiaoli Town Agricultural Committee Director Xingzhu said. In recent years, the income structure of farmers has changed, forming a “two part-time jobs” structure with non-agricultural income as the main and agricultural income as the auxiliary. More and more farmers are gradually

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withdrawing from the scope of commercial agricultural operations. The goal of agriculture is to become self-sufficient, forming the so-called “ration agriculture”. Xingzhu said that now the farmers in the village, especially older farmers, are “idle”. Although they are unable to cultivate large areas of land, they plant part of the grain and vegetables for their own consumption.

5.1.3 Family Structure Western countries have witnessed a long-term fall in household size over the past few decades, which is accompanied by a trend of ageing (Kobrin, 1976). Household size is positively associated with the birth rate and the mean age at marriage and inversely associated with the level of marital disruption (Bongaarts, 2001). In rural areas, household size is often also associated with poverty (Lanjouw & Ravallion, 1995; Meenakshi & Ray, 2002; Netting, 1982). There is no doubt that family structure is an important issue in the process of population transformation. In this section, we analyse the spatial patterns of family structure transformation in rural China. In China, we find that the household size in rural areas is high in the south and low in the north, high in the west and low in the east (Fig. 5.12). The average size of rural households in most areas is between three and 3.5 people, and families of three and four are more common in rural areas. The rural household is lowest in Shanghai, less than 2.5 people. This is related to the low birth rate in Shanghai. Other provinces and cities with average household sizes of less than three include Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Zhejiang and Chongqing. The provincial administrative regions with average household sizes of more than 3.5 people are mainly in south China and northwest China. Among them, south China and its surrounding provincial administrative regions with large-scale rural households include Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Hainan, Guizhou and Yunnan, where the traditional clan concept is relatively strong. Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang in northwest China also have large average rural household sizes. The population in these areas is sparse, and the proportion of people engaged in animal husbandry as the primary industry is relatively high. The proportion of the minority population is relatively high, and the birth rate is higher than that in the eastern region. Tibet has the largest household size in rural areas, and it is significantly higher than that in all other provinces. The level of economic and social development in rural Tibet is relatively low. The mode of production and way of life are relatively traditional. The birth rate in Tibet is very high, and the phenomenon of multiple children in one family is obvious. Given these circumstances, the size of rural households in Tibet is significantly higher than that in other regions.

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Fig. 5.12 Average rural household size in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

The household size in rural areas showed a downward trend as a whole, but it rose against the trend in southeast coastal provinces (Fig. 5.13). The average rural household size in most regions was in decline, with a decline of 5 to 10% from 2010 to 2017 in most provinces. Shanxi’s decline was the most prominent. With the improvement in social and economic development level, the size of family households has gradually reduced. Under the combined effect of fewer children and the outflow of young people in rural areas, reduction of family household size has become a common trend. In the southeast areas of Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou and Hainan, the household size in rural areas has increased slightly. In addition, the rural household size has also increased in Beijing, Tianjin and Xinjiang. The proportion of rural one-generation households in the eastern region is higher than that in the western region, and the proportion of rural one-generation households in the southwest region is the lowest (Fig. 5.14). A one-generation family is generally composed of husband and wife, which is a small family. The proportion of one-generation households in rural areas in most provincial administrative regions of China ranges from 30 to 40%. The highest proportions of rural one-generation households are in Shanghai and Zhejiang, at more than 50%. This shows that small families in rural areas are very common in Shanghai and Zhejiang. Many families have not yet had children, but the couple live together and choose DINK families or late childbearing. The proportion of one-generation households in rural areas of western China is relatively low, most at below 30%. Among them, the proportion of

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Fig. 5.13 Rural household size change in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

one-generation households in Tibet and in Yunnan in southwest China is the lowest, at less than 20%. This shows that more families in the rural areas of Tibet and Yunnan belong to traditional extended families and that rural society is still dominated by the mode of large families living together. In most rural areas, the proportion of one-generation families is on the rise, and large families are transforming into small families (Fig. 5.15). From 2010 to 2017, the proportion of one-generation households in rural areas of most provincial administrative regions increased by more than 5%. This shows that there are more and more one-generation families in rural areas all over the country and that people tend to give birth later. In Xinjiang and Tibet, the proportion of one-generation families has not increased, but reduced. This shows that in the western regions of Xinjiang and Tibet, the big family is still the mainstream in rural areas, and there is no trend of change. Family miniaturisation will have many impacts on society. The research on the temporal and spatial variation and influencing factors of family structure is meaningful for the well-being of residents and the sustainable development of the community (Linling, 2018). The change in family patterns entails the restoration of traditional functions and the taking on of new functions for the family due to the issuance of relevant social policies (Su et al., 2017). Family miniaturisation has increased the pressure on pensions to a certain extent. Especially in China’s rural areas, the income levels of many families are relatively low, which exacerbates the adverse impact of family miniaturisation. In this instance, the government may support the

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145

Fig. 5.14 Proportion of one-generation households in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Fig. 5.15 Proportion change of one-generation households in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

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family service industry and combine it with community construction and social organisation training. In rural areas, the proportion of married people over 15 years old is higher in the north and lower in the south, and higher in the east and lower in the west (Fig. 5.16). This pattern is opposite to the national distribution pattern of household size. In other words, the proportion of married people in the eastern region is high but the family size is small, while the proportion of married people in the western region is low but the family size is large. Shanghai has the highest proportion of married people, at more than 80%. Shanghai is also the provincial administrative region with the highest proportion of one-generation households, which indicates that there are many childless families in Shanghai. The proportion of rural married in other eastern coastal provinces and northeast provinces is also relatively high. The proportion of married people in south China and southwest China is relatively low. Especially in Tibet, the proportion of married people in rural areas is the lowest in China. At the same time, these areas are also relatively prominent for their imbalance in the proportion of males and females in the population. The proportion of married people over 15 years old in rural areas has increased in some regions and decreased in others, and there are slightly more areas with increases than with decreases (Fig. 5.17). From 2010 to 2017, the change in the proportion was not large. The change percentage of most provincial administrative regions was less than 5%. There were no obvious regular regional patterns. Liaoning and Inner Mongolia in northeast China and Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi in southwest China

Fig. 5.16 Proportion of married people aged over 15 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

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Fig. 5.17 Proportion change of married people aged over 15 in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

were the main areas of decline. In particular, the married proportion base in southwest China was relatively low, and it is still declining. The imbalance between males and females in rural areas and the rising cost of marriage may be among the reasons for this phenomenon.

5.1.4 Education Structure China has an educational system with its own characteristics (Bush et al., 1998). The pattern of education in most parts of the country follows a consistent sequence. Three years of kindergarten education from age 3, for many children but not all in rural areas, is followed by six years of compulsory primary education. At age 12, youngsters normally transfer to junior secondary schools for three years. There are several types of senior secondary education, but not all young people progress to this stage. The most common senior secondary education is high-school education. In addition to high-school education, vocational and technical college education are also available. After high-school education, students can take part in the national college entrance examination. After reaching the corresponding admission line, students can enter the university they apply to and access to higher education. The educational level of the rural population is low in the northeast and southwest, but high in the southeast and northwest (Fig. 5.18), and the change trend is consistent

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with this pattern (Fig. 5.19). On the whole, the educational level of the population in rural areas is low, and the proportion of the population with college degrees is very low. Compared with cities, rural areas are less attractive to highly educated people, and it is difficult to provide corresponding employment opportunities. The proportion of the population with college degrees or above is relatively high in east China and northwest China, and the proportion of the population with higher degrees in these areas is also rising relatively fast. The educational level of east China is relatively good, and the ability to attract talent is relatively strong. The relatively high proportion of the population with college degrees in northwest China is related to the inflow of talents into the western area. The proportion of the rural population with college degrees in northeast China, north China (except Beijing and Tianjin) and southwest China is relatively low, most often below 3%. The basic education level of these areas is poor. Consequently, their ability to attract talent is also poor. The proportion of rural illiteracy in some western provinces is relatively high (Fig. 5.20), and the proportion of rural illiteracy has not changed much in recent years (Fig. 5.21). The rural areas of Tibet, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia and Guizhou in the west have relatively high illiteracy rates, with rural areas of Tibet having the highest illiteracy rate. The level of rural social and economic development in these areas is relatively low, and the foundation of education level is also poor. The provinces with relatively low proportions of illiterate population in rural areas are mainly distributed in northeast, north and south China. Although the rural population with high educational backgrounds is relatively low in northeast China and north

Fig. 5.18 Proportion of population of university level in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

5.1 Transition of the Rural Population’s Composition

149

Fig. 5.19 Proportion of population of university level in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

China, the illiterate population is also relatively low. This shows that although northeast China and north China are not attractive to the highly educated population, the popularisation level of basic education has taken place earlier and better, so that the number of illiterate rural residents is relatively small. However, the education levels of Tibet and other places in the western region lag behind as a whole. Although the education level of China’s population is constantly improving, the proportion of rural illiteracy has not effectively declined in recent years. The proportion of rural illiteracy has even increased in some provinces. This is probably related to the movement of some educated rural residents to cities. The high illiteracy rate makes it more difficult for residents in rural areas to accept the changes due to new technologies. Studies have found that a high illiteracy rate leads to a decline in the ability to obtain information from the Internet (Srikantaiah & Xiaoying, 1998). At present, the development of rural informatisation in China is continuously advancing (Qiang, 2009). Some rural areas with high illiteracy rates may find it more difficult to benefit from the promotion of some new technologies. For these areas, more targeted measures need to be formulated to help rural residents to obtain new public services.

150

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

Fig. 5.20 Illiteracy rate in rural areas in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

Fig. 5.21 Illiteracy rate change in rural areas in different provinces of China (2010–2017). Source China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2018

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure

151

5.1.5 Hukou Structure The hukou system is a resident registration system that is unique to China and that was introduced to China’s cities in 1958 (Zhao & Howden-Chapman, 2010). According to hukou policy, the population of the whole nation was classified into two categories: people with urban hukous and people with rural hukous. The hukou system was integral to the collective transformation of rural areas, to a demographic strategy that restricted urbanisation and to the redefinition of urban–rural and state-society relations (Cheng & Selden, 1994). Unlike the population registration systems in many other countries, the hukou system in China was designed not only to provide population statistics and identify personal status, but also directly to regulate population distribution and serve many other important objectives desired by the nation (Chan & Zhang, 1999). Due to the existence of the hukou system, there are two approaches to calculating the urbanisation rate in China (Liu et al., 2016). The first statistical method is to count urbanisation according to the residential population. The results of this kind of statistics are closer to the real situation. Correspondingly, the second statistical method is to count urbanisation according to hukous. The results of such analyses often produce the urbanisation rates lower than the actual situation. This phenomenon is often called semi-urbanisation by Chinese scholars (Han et al., 2021). According to the seventh census in 2020, 63.89% of the national population live in urban areas, while 36.11% of the national population live in rural areas. However, according to the hukou data from the Ministry of Public Security, only 45.4% of the national population have urban hukous. Compared with the sixth census in 2010 (Fig. 5.22), the urbanisation rate based on residential population has grown faster than that based on hukous. This means that there are more people who live in urban areas but still have rural hukous. Residents without urban hukous cannot be fully integrated into urban life. These residents are no longer engaged in agricultural production but have migrated to work in cities. However, they cannot enjoy public services such as salary, education, medical care and insurance as urban residents. They also do not have basic political rights such as voting in elections and being elected in cities. The increasing number of rural migrants indicates that the semi-urbanisation of the population has become an important issue that cannot be avoided in China.

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure 5.2.1 Transport Expenditure in Rural Areas Travel demand is recognised as a demand that derives from the human desire and need to participate in activities and to consume goods and services distributed in time and space (Ferdous et al., 2010; Pendyala & Goulias, 2002). Transport expenditure refers

152

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents 70% 60%

Urbanisation rate

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 Urbanisation rate (residential)

2020 Urbanisation rate (hukou)

Fig. 5.22 Urbanisation rate based on residential population and hukous

to the expenditure of residents on travel behaviour (Miwa et al., 2014; Thakuriah & Liao, 2006). In many Western countries, due to the high level of car ownership, transport expenditure is mainly car fuel cost. Many studies focus on the impact of oil price changes on residents’ transport expenditure (Dodson & Sipe, 2008). However, public transport fares are also an important part of transport expenditure. Thakuriah and Liao (2006) pointed out that investments in mobility such as the consumption of public transport services allow better quality of life in general and the ability to increase one’s income. In rural China, residents’ transport expenditure mainly includes the cost of purchasing and using motor vehicles and taking buses to other villages and towns. Rural residents’ transport expenditure is generally higher in the east and lower in the west, while the proportion is also higher in the frontier provinces (Fig. 5.23). The overall spatial pattern is high in the east and low in the west, which is consistent with the pattern of consumption expenditure of rural residents. Among them, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Inner Mongolia have the highest transport expenditures (Fig. 5.24). The rural economies in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin are relatively active. Inner Mongolia is sparsely populated, and its rural production mode requires longer travel distances. The proportion of transport expenditure in eastern provinces and central and western frontier provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Yunnan is relatively high. The lowest proportion is in south China and the surrounding provinces, including Guangdong, Hainan, Jiangxi and Hunan. These provinces are hilly in most area. The daily activities of rural residents in these areas may take place mainly in their own villages and towns.

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure

153

Fig. 5.23 Transport expenditure of rural residents in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

Fig. 5.24 Transport expenditure proportion of rural residents in different provinces of China (2017). Source China Rural Statistical Yearbook 2018

154

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

5.2.2 Impact of Population Composition The regression results show that the transport expenditure of rural residents has a significant correlation with each dimension of the population composition, in that it is positively correlated with the proportion of females and illiteracy and negatively correlated with the proportion of children, one-generation households and population with college degrees (Table 5.1). The model takes the per-capita road mileage and per-capita income as control variables, as they are positively correlated with the transport expenditure, that is, the better the rural transport infrastructure conditions and the higher the per-capita income level, the higher the transport expenditure of rural residents in the region. On the basis of the control variables, we found that the proportion of females, the proportion of children, the proportion of one-generation households, the proportion of population with college degrees and the proportion of illiteracy had significant impacts on the transport expenditure. The proportion of females and the proportion of children are significant at the level of 0.05. These results show that, in terms of gender structure, regions with a higher proportion of females tend to have higher per-capita transport expenditure, which may be related to females’ higher requirements for the quality of transport. In terms of age structure, regions with higher proportions of children tend to have lower per-capita transport expenditure, which may be related to less travel demand from children. In terms of family structure, regions with higher proportions of one-generation households tend to have lower per-capita transport expenditure, which may be related to the fact that there is no need for one-generation families to pick up children and deal with other family issues. In terms of education structure, regions with higher education levels tend to have lower per-capita transport expenditure, which may be related to the fact that areas with higher education levels usually have good public transport services. At the same time, most highly educated people are willing to travel by public transport. There is a similar relationship between the proportion of rural residents’ transport expenditure and the population composition (Table 5.2), which is positively correlated with the proportion of females and negatively correlated with the proportions of children, older people, one-generation households and people with college degrees. The model takes the per-capita road mileage and per-capita income as control variables, as they are positively correlated with the proportion of transport expenditure, that is, the better the rural transport infrastructure conditions and the higher the per-capita income level, the higher the proportion of transport expenditure of rural residents in the region. On the basis of the control variables, we found that the proportion of females, children, older people, one-generation households and people with college degrees or above have a significant impact on transport expenditure, and the proportion of older people is significant at the level of 0.01. The results show that, in terms of gender structure, regions with a higher proportion of females tend to have a higher proportion of per-capita transport expenditure. In terms of age structure, regions with a higher proportion of children and older people tend to have lower percapita transport expenditures. Obviously, the demand for medium and long-distance travel of older people in rural areas is relatively small. In terms of family structure,

***

p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; * p < 0.10

0.7154

Adjusted R2 0.8190

14.1222

37.4444

F

0.090

0.172*

Illiteracy

− 0.194

0.137 0.128

− 0.027 − 0.230*

Marriage

College degree

− 1.990

0.330

− 0.657*

One-generation household

− 1.650

1.918

− 1.804

− 0.998

0.163 0.350

− 0.268 − 0.349

Older people

− 2.347

2.835

6.592

1.269

0

t Stat

Household size

0.138

0.193

− 0.325**

1.273***

Children

8.594

0.078 0.093 0.105

0.100

1.438E-6*** 0.118 0.298**

0.855***

0 1.819

S.E

Female

Income

0.100

0.097

4.660E-7***

0.181*

Constant

Coefficients

Road mileage

Model 2

Coefficients

t Stat

S.E

Model 1

Table 5.1 Regression results for rural transport expenditure and population composition (2017)

0.7959

23.6184

− 0.348**

− 0.257*

0.247**

0.951***

0.103

6.034E-7***

Coefficients

Model 3

0.143

0.132

0.091

0.123

0.090

0.082

S.E

− 2.425

− 1.944

2.722

7.764

1.1422

0

t Stat

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure 155

***

p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; * p < 0.10

0.1886 0.3830

2.8004

0.249

Illiteracy

0.0128

− 0.619**

F

0.253 0.236

0.013

Marriage

College degree

Adjusted R2

0.609

− 1.217*

One-generation household

0.166

0.300 0.647

− 0.921*** − 0.1033

Older people

Household size

0.256

0.356

− 0.514**

1.086***

Children

1.083

0.143 0.172 0.194

0.185

3.719E-6*** 0.205 0.486**

0.201

0 1.194

S.E

Female

Income

0.185

0.181

1.288E-6***

0.221

Constant

Road mileage

Model 2 Coefficients

t Stat

S.E

Model 1

Coefficients

1.503

− 2.622

0.052 ara>

− 1.997

− 1.598

− 3.066

− 2.012

2.502

3.046

1.195

0

t Stat

Table 5.2 Regression results for rural transport expenditure proportion and population composition (2017) Model 3

0.3452

3.5485

− 0.518**

− 0.860***

− 0.476**

0.557***

0.724**

0.231

9.278E-7***

Coefficients

0.218

0.247

0.218

0.177

0.276

0.170

0.148

S.E

− 2.374

− 3.482

− 2.179

3.156

2.625

1.360

0

t Stat

156 5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure

157

regions with higher proportions of one-generation households tend to have lower per-capita transport expenditure. In terms of education structure, regions with higher education levels tend to have lower per-capita transport expenditure.

5.2.3 Spatial Differences in the Impacts of Population Composition China’s rural residents’ transport expenditure and transport expenditure proportion show significant spatial autocorrelation, in particular the spatial autocorrelation of expenditure proportion (Table 5.3). The results show that the Moran’s I of rural residents’ transport expenditure and its proportion are significant at the 0.01 level. The Moran’s I of transport expenditure is 0.285933, and the Moran’s I of transport expenditure proportion is 0.582348. This shows that the rural residents’ transport expenditure and transport expenditure proportion in adjacent provinces are similar. Local spatial autocorrelation results show that the high-high cluster of rural residents’ transport expenditure mainly appears in the northern region, including Liaoning, Jilin, Hebei and other provinces, while the low-low cluster mainly appears in the southern region, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan and other provinces (Fig. 5.25). The terrain in northern China is mainly level, and the villages may be relatively close together. Shanxi, Henan and Anhui show low–high outlier distribution; the terrain conditions of these three provinces are relatively more uneven, and compared with coastal provinces, the level of rural social and economic development is lower, and the rural residents’ transport expenditure is lower than in surrounding areas. The topography of southern China is mainly hilly, and the connection between rural areas may be relatively weak. The local spatial autocorrelation patterns of the proportion of traffic communication expenditure are similar (Fig. 5.26). However, Henan and Anhui are not low–high outliers, while Guizhou and Guangxi are high-low outliers. This shows that the lower expenditure of rural residents in Henan and Anhui is probably due to the lower overall expenditure in the area, rather than the influence of other factors. Although the expenditure of rural residents in Guizhou and Guangxi is not high, the proportion is higher than that of the surrounding provinces. This shows that the transport expenditure of Guizhou and Guangxi is similar to that of the surrounding provinces, but because of the low level of income and expenditure of residents, the transport expenditure is more of a burden. Table 5.3 Spatial autocorrelation of rural residents’ transport expenditure and transport expenditure proportion (2017) Moran’s I

P value

Z score

Transport expenditure

0.285933

< 0.01

4.243135

Transport expenditure proportion

0.582348

< 0.01

8.004521

158

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

Fig. 5.25 Spatial autocorrelation of transport expenditure in rural areas (2017)

Fig. 5.26 Spatial autocorrelation of transport expenditure proportion in rural areas (2017)

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure

159

Table 5.4 Comparison of GWR results and OLS linear regression results RSS 4.896

AICC

R2

Adjusted R2

48.655

0.8311

0.8020

Transport expenditure

GWR OLS

4.898

49.858

0.8311

0.7959

Transport expenditure proportion

GWR

15.053

91.356

0.4809

0.3694

OLS

15.059

87.318

0.4807

0.3452

Considering the significant spatial autocorrelation of transport expenditure of rural residents in China, this study uses GWR to analyse it further. By incorporating Model 3 from the OLS regression into a GWR, we compare the model obtained by GWR with the original model (Table 5.4). The results show that the adjusted R-squared of the GWR model is 0.8020, which is higher than the 0.7959 of OLS-based regression model, while the AICC value of the GWR model is 48.655, which is lower than the 49.858 of the OLS-based regression model. Adjusting R and AICC values shows that the GWR model is relatively better for transport expenditure. For the proportion of transport expenditure, the R-squared of the GWR model is 0.3694, which is higher than the 0.3452 of the OLS-based regression model. However, the AICC value of the GWR model is 91.356, which is higher than the 87.318 of the OLS-based regression model. This shows that the GWR model has a better fitting effect, but its performance is not significantly better than the OLS-based regression model. Figures 5.27 and 5.28 show the distribution of standard residuals in GWR models. It can be discovered that the absolute values of standard residuals are relatively higher in some provinces, such as Zhejiang and Hainan. There are differences in the coefficients of each explanatory variable in GWR model, but the degree of spatial differentiation is relatively small. For transport expenditure: (1) the coefficient of per-capita road mileage decreases from northwest to southeast (Fig. 5.29). The highest coefficient is in Xinjiang in northwest China, and the lowest coefficient is in the southeast coastal provinces, which indicates that transport infrastructure is a more critical factor for rural residents’ transport expenditure in northwest China. The northwest area is vast and sparsely populated, and the scale of the basic road network has a relatively large impact on people’s travel. (2) The coefficient of per-capita income decreases from west to east (Fig. 5.30), which is similar to the distribution of per-capita road mileage coefficient. The highest coefficient is in Xinjiang in northwest China, and the lowest coefficient is in the southeast coastal provinces and northeast China, which indicates that the income level of rural residents is more critical to the transport expenditure of northwest residents. (3) The coefficient of female proportion of the population also shows a decreasing pattern from west to east (Fig. 5.31). The highest coefficient is in Xinjiang in northwest China, and the lowest coefficient is in northeast China. This shows that the female population proportion has a greater impact on the transport expenditure of residents in northwest China, while the gender structure of population in eastern China has a smaller impact on transport expenditure. (4) The coefficient of the proportion of children in the population also shows a decreasing pattern from west to east

160

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

Fig. 5.27 Standard residuals of GWR of rural residents’ transport expenditure (2017)

Fig. 5.28 Standard residuals of GWR of rural residents’ transport expenditure proportion (2017)

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure

Fig. 5.29 GWR regression coefficient of per-capita expenditure for rural roads

Fig. 5.30 GWR regression coefficient of average income

161

162

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

Fig. 5.31 GWR regression coefficient of female proportion

(Fig. 5.32), but the proportion of children in the population is a negative factor for transport expenditure. The highest coefficient is in Xinjiang in northwest China, and the lowest coefficient is in northeast China, which indicates that the age structure of the population in northeast China has a greater impact on transport expenditure. (5) The coefficient of the proportion of one-generation households reduces from the southwest to the northeast (Fig. 5.33). The proportion of one-generation households is a negative factor for transport expenditure. The highest coefficient is in Yunnan in the southwest, and the lowest coefficient is in the northeast, which indicates that the influence of family structure on transport expenditure in the northeast is relatively greater. To sum up, transport infrastructure, income level and gender structure of population have relatively greater impacts on the transport expenditure of rural residents in northwest China, while age structure and family structure of population have relatively greater impacts on the transport expenditure of rural residents in northeast China. For the proportion of transport expenditure: (1) the coefficient of per-capita road mileage reduces from north to south (Fig. 5.34). The highest coefficient is in the northwest and northeast regions, and the lowest coefficient is in the southeast coastal provinces, which indicates that transport infrastructure is a more critical factor for the proportion of transport expenditure of rural residents in the northwest and northeast regions, which is similar to the results of transport expenditure. (2) The coefficient of per-capita income decreases from northwest to southeast (Fig. 5.35), which is similar to the distribution of per-capita road mileage coefficient. The highest coefficient is

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure

Fig. 5.32 GWR regression coefficient of proportion of children

Fig. 5.33 GWR regression coefficient of proportion of one-generation households

163

164

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

Fig. 5.34 GWR regression coefficient of rural roads per capita

Fig. 5.35 GWR Regression Coefficient of average income

5.2 Impact of Population Composition on Transport Expenditure

165

Fig. 5.36 GWR regression coefficient of female proportion

in Xinjiang in the northwest, and the lowest coefficient is in the southeast coastal provinces, which indicates that the income level of rural residents is more critical to the proportion of transport expenditure of northwest residents. (3) The coefficient of female population proportion also shows a decreasing pattern from northwest to southeast (Fig. 5.36). The highest coefficient is in Xinjiang in northwest China, and the lowest coefficient is the southeast coastal area, which indicates that the female population proportion has a greater impact on the transport expenditure of residents in northwest China, while the gender structure of population in eastern China has a smaller impact on the transport expenditure proportion. (4) The coefficient of the proportion of children also shows a decreasing pattern from west to east (Fig. 5.37), but the proportion of children in the population is a negative factor for the proportion of transport expenditure. Xinjiang has the highest coefficient and the southeast coastal area has the lowest coefficient, which indicates that the age structure of the population in the eastern region has a greater impact on the proportion of transport expenditure. (5) The coefficient of the proportion of older people in the population decreases from the southeast to the northwest (Fig. 5.38). The proportion of older people is a negative factor for the proportion of transport expenditure. The highest coefficient is on the southeast coast, and the lowest coefficient is in the northwest, which indicates that the proportion of older people in the northwest has a greater impact on the decline of the proportion of transport expenditure. (6) The coefficient of the proportion of the population with college degrees decreases from east to west (Fig. 5.39). The proportion of the population with college degrees is a negative factor for the proportion of transport expenditure. The highest coefficient is in northeast

166

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

Fig. 5.37 GWR regression coefficient of proportion of children

China, and the lowest coefficient is in northwest China. The education structure of northwest China has a greater impact on the proportion of transport expenditure. To sum up, transport infrastructure, residents’ income level, population gender structure and population education structure have a greater impact on rural residents’ transport expenditure in northwest China. The impact of population age structure is diverse. The proportion of children has a greater impact on the east, while the proportion of older people has a greater impact on northwest China.

5.3 Summary The main conclusions of our research in this chapter are as follows. (1) The main characteristics of China’s rural population composition change are the ageing of the population, the miniaturisation of family structure and the improvement of education structure. With the continuous concentration of young people in cities, the ageing in rural areas has become more serious. Although cities are more attractive to college students, with the popularisation of universal education, the education level of the population in rural areas of China has also been greatly improved. (2) There are some regional differences in the composition of China’s rural population, which mainly shows that the rural ageing in the east and north is more

5.3 Summary

Fig. 5.38 GWR regression coefficient of proportion of older people

Fig. 5.39 GWR regression coefficient of proportion of college-educated people

167

168

5 Transport Expenditure of Rural Residents

serious than that in the west and south. The rural family size in the east and north is larger than that in the west and south. (3) Rural residents’ transport expenditure is higher in east China and lower in west China, while the proportion is higher in the east and the western frontier provinces. (4) There is a positive correlation between the proportion of females and expenditure on transport and a negative correlation between the proportion of children and expenditure on transport. Transport infrastructure, residents’ income levels, population gender structure and population education structure have a greater impact in northwest China. The proportion of children has a greater impact on the east, while the proportion of older people has a greater impact in northwest China.

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Chapter 6

Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements

6.1 Rural Settlement Accessibility to Highway Network 6.1.1 Overall Accessibility Accessibility is one of the most common entry points into transport equity research. Hansen, (1959) proposed the concept of accessibility and defined it as the potential opportunity for interaction. Accessibility is mainly understood as how easily people can obtain opportunities or how free they are to participate in society (Batty, 2009; Ingram, 1971). Inadequate accessibility may lead to reduced quality of life, reduced happiness and social isolation (Pyrialakou et al., 2016). In the study of transport geography, accessibility is often used to evaluate the degree of transport advantage, which mainly reflects the transport cost (Wixey et al., 2005). Transport cost can include geographical distance cost, money cost, time cost, opportunity cost, etc. (Borck & Owings, 2003; Limao & Venables, 2001; McCann, 2005). These transport costs can also be called transport resistance (Van Wee et al., 2013). Generally speaking, accessibility reflects how a spatial location connects with other spatial locations. The degree of convenience or difficulty also determines the possibility of people approaching a spatial location. In recent years, Chinese scholars have carried out a large number of accessibility studies on a national scale based on GIS (Chen et al., 2007; Li & Lu, 2005; Wang, 2006). However, most of these studies focus on the impact of expressways and high-speed railways on the accessibility of different cities (Cao et al., 2005; Liu & Zhang, 2018; Shaw et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2016). There are relatively few studies on accessibility in rural areas, and more attention has gone to specific public service facilities (Hu et al., 2013); (Luo et al., 2017). In this section, we measure the accessibility of rural settlements in China based on GIS data. The accessibility of rural settlements varies among different areas in China. Based on the distance from rural settlements to highway network (Fig. 6.1), the accessibility of eastern China is better than that of western China, and the accessibility of northern China is better than that of southern China. Yunnan, Guizhou, © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_6

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Shaanxi, Gansu and other western provinces have the lowest levels of connection with highway network. A large number of villages are more than 10 km away from the highway network. These villages are mainly in the mountainous areas of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and the Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi. The terrain conditions of these areas are complex, which makes road construction difficult. At the same time, the local governments’ financial resources are relatively limited, so they are unable to build a better road network. Focusing on the eastern region where the overall accessibility is better, the village accessibility of Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi and other southern provinces is significantly lower than that of Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other northern provinces. In addition, the connection between villages and highway networks in the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu–Chongqing and other megacity regions is the best. In these megacity regions, the road network is dense and the urban–rural road network is well integrated, so that the residents in rural areas can travel more conveniently. Although there are regional differences, the connections between rural areas and the highway network in China have reached a high level. Only a few remote villages have poor accessibility (Fig. 6.2). Among them, villages within 2 km of the highway network account for 84% of the total villages with poor accessibility. At the same time, it is worth noting that nearly 20% of the villages are more than 10 km away from highway network, and 4.37% of the villages with poor accessibility are more than 20 km away. The transport conditions of these villages are relatively poor, so it is urgent to improve the basic network and to strengthen the connections with surrounding areas.

Fig. 6.1 Distance from villages to nearest highway (2018)

6.1 Rural Settlement Accessibility to Highway Network

173

4.19% 4.37%

9.66%

32.84%

22.55% 26.38%

< 2 km

2-5 km

5-10 km

10-15 km

15-20 km

> 20 km

Fig. 6.2 Proportions of different distances from villages to highways (2018)

Villages with poor accessibility that are more than 20 km away from highway network are mainly distributed in the western and northeast regions. In addition, they are also scattered in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan and other provinces in the east and south (Fig. 6.3). Specifically, Sichuan Province has the largest number of such villages, accounting for 12.9% (Fig. 6.4), followed by Heilongjiang Province in northeast China and Shaanxi Province in northwest China, accounting for about 10% each. Other provinces accounting for more than 5% of such villages include Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, all in the western region. On the whole, there are few such villages in the eastern coastal areas. The number of villages with poor accessibility also varies among eastern provinces. For example, Zhejiang and Fujian also account for more than 1% of such rural settlements. Rural areas poorly connected with the expressway network are still mainly distributed in the western region and the northeast region (Fig. 6.5). The spatial pattern of the connection between villages and expressways in China is similar to that of the connections between villages and the highway network. The areas with the worst coverage of expressways are in the western region and the northeast region. The difference is that in some western provinces, such as Guizhou, the coverage of expressways in rural areas has reached a high level. This indicates that in these regions, the disadvantages mainly lie in the basic road network rather than expressways. Specifically, Yunnan has the largest number of villages over 40 km away from expressways, accounting for 14.4% (Fig. 6.6), followed by Sichuan Province and Gansu Province, accounting for about 10% each. Other provinces accounting for more than 5% include Tibet, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, all of which are frontier provinces. Other areas with insufficient coverage are mainly those with rough terrain and small populations, where transport construction costs are high. Combined with the situation of the basic road network, Guizhou and Shaanxi have relatively good expressway coverage but an insufficient basic road network, while Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu, Tibet, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are deficient in both aspects.

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6 Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements

Fig. 6.3 Distribution of villages more than 20 km from highways (2018)

Fig. 6.4 Proportion of villages more than 20 km from highways (2018)

6.1 Rural Settlement Accessibility to Highway Network

Fig. 6.5 Distribution of villages more than 40 km from expressways (2018)

Fig. 6.6 Proportion of villages more than 40 km from expressways (2018)

175

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6 Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements

6.1.2 County-Level Variations Seen from the county level, the areas with high rural accessibility are mainly in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong (Fig. 6.7). Among the provinces, Jiangsu has the most counties whose average distance between villages and highways is less than 2 km (Fig. 6.8). The main landforms of these areas are level. Also, these areas have relatively high levels of economic development and sufficient road networks. The surrounding areas of some provincial capitals or municipalities, such as Chengdu Plain where Chengdu is located, Guanzhong Plain where Xi’an is located, Hetao Plain where Yinchuan is located, Jianghan Plain where Wuhan is located, etc., have relatively good rural accessibility. The areas with poor rural accessibility are mainly to the west of the Hu Line, but the internal differences are still large. For example, the overall rural accessibility in Tibet is poor (Fig. 6.9), but the accessibility of Lhasa and its surrounding areas is relatively good. Specifically, at the prefecture level, the distribution pattern of areas with better rural accessibility is similar (Fig. 6.10), but the local differences are smoothed. The areas with good rural accessibility are mainly level landforms, with relatively high levels of economic development, and relatively good road networks. Compared with the distribution of the Hu Line, Yunnan and Guizhou in the southwestern region have relatively poor accessibility. The prefecture-level cities with the worst rural acces-

Fig. 6.7 Average distance of villages from highways in different counties of China (2018)

6.1 Rural Settlement Accessibility to Highway Network

177

Fig. 6.8 Proportion of counties whose average distance between villages and highways is less than 2 km (2018)

Fig. 6.9 Proportion of counties whose average distance between villages and highways is more than 20 km (2018)

sibility are mainly in Tibet, Qinghai and Xinjiang (Fig. 6.11), while the prefecturelevel cities with the best rural accessibility are mainly in Jiangsu and Guangdong (Fig. 6.12).

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6 Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements

x 10,000

Average distance (m)

Fig. 6.10 Average distance of villages from highways in different prefectures of China (2018) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Fig. 6.11 Top 10 prefectures with longest average distance between villages and highway (2018)

6.2 Spatial Equity of Rural Accessibility 6.2.1 Analysis of Intracounty Equity of Accessibility In addition to the absolute level of accessibility, we also measure the fairness of rural accessibility levels from the perspective of equity. The absolute level of accessibility

av erage distance (km)

x 1000

6.2 Spatial Equity of Rural Accessibility

179

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

Fig. 6.12 Top 10 prefectures with shortest average distance between villages and highway (2018)

in the east is relatively high, but the accessibility of different villages within the counties of the southeast region varies greatly (Fig. 6.13). Taking each county as a unit, we calculate the coefficient of variation (CV) of the average distance between each village and highway network. The higher the CV, the greater the difference in accessibility between different villages within the county. The results show that the counties with larger CVs are mainly concentrated in the area west of the Hu Line. In the areas to the east of the Hu Line, the CVs are relatively large, that is, areas with large internal accessibility differences are mostly distributed in southeast provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong, and the areas near the Qinling Mountains in Shaanxi. The villages in parts of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are sparsely populated. These areas have low accessibility and large internal differences in accessibility. Although the overall accessibility of the southeast coastal area is good, there are large internal gaps. There are still a small number of villages that need improved access. We further analyse the patterns in different regions. The distribution of CVs in different counties of Hebei, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia in north China is roughly similar (Fig. 6.14). There is no county with a particularly prominent CV. The level of rural accessibility at the county level is relatively balanced. Among them, the counties with relatively poor balance are mainly in the Taihang mountainous area in the west part of Hebei. Among the three provinces in northeast China, the degree of imbalance in rural accessibility decreases from northeast to southwest (Fig. 6.15), that is, Heilongjiang Province is the most unbalanced and Liaoning Province is the most balanced. Heilongjiang covers a large geographical area. It has relatively large internal differences, involving more sparsely populated border areas. There are large differences in the level of transport construction within Heilongjiang. Sunwu County and Longjiang County, which have poor rural accessibility, are mostly on the borders of provinces or around national boundaries. In addition, most of the counties with

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6 Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements

Fig. 6.13 CVs of average distance between villages and highway in different counties of China (2018)

poor balance of rural accessibility in Liaoning and Jilin are also in border areas between China and North Korea. There are big internal differences in east China (Fig. 6.16). Among them, the balance of rural accessibility in Jiangxi and Fujian is relatively poor, while that in other provinces and cities is relatively good. Some counties in Jiangxi and Fujian 5 4.5 4

CV Value

3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Fig. 6.14 County-level CV distribution in north China (2018). Note Peak values from left to right are for Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, respectively

6.2 Spatial Equity of Rural Accessibility

181

5 4.5 4

CV Value

3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Fig. 6.15 County-level CV value distribution in northeast China (2018). Note Peak values from left to right are for Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang, respectively

have extremely uneven accessibility. The areas with the worst balance of rural accessibility in Jiangxi Province include Quannan County, Shangyou County, Chongyi County, etc., which are mainly in the mountainous area of southern Jiangxi. The old revolutionary base areas have complex terrain conditions and relatively low levels of social and economic development. The areas with the worst balance of rural accessibility in Fujian Province include Xiapu, Zhouning, Luoyuan, etc., which are mainly in the mountainous areas of northern Fujian. The overall terrain of Fujian Province is relatively rugged, which makes transport construction more difficult. The basic rural road network in these areas needs further improvement. The counties with poor balance of rural accessibility in central south China are mainly in Guangdong Province (Fig. 6.17). The natural topography of Guangdong Province is similar to that of Fujian, with more hills and mountains. In addition, the problem of uneven development within Guangdong Province is more prominent, and the non-Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong needs to improve its basic road network further. Southwest China has the most uneven distribution of rural accessibility (Fig. 6.18). Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan and Tibet have many counties with extremely uneven rural accessibility. Among them, Tibet has the most serious imbalance, followed by Sichuan. Guizhou Province is relatively balanced. The counties with the highest degree of imbalance in Sichuan Province are mainly in the Hengduan Mountains, such as Baiyu County and Derong County; the county-level administrative districts with higher rural accessibility imbalance in the Tibet Autonomous Region are also mainly in the eastern part of Hengduan. In northwest China, Gansu has relatively more counties with uneven rural accessibility (Fig. 6.19). In addition, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang all have a considerable number of such counties. Specifically, such counties are mainly distributed in northwest Gansu. These counties often have a

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6 Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements 5 4.5 4

CV Value

3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Fig. 6.16 County-level CV distribution in east China (2018). Note Peak values from left to right are for Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi and Shandong, respectively

5 4.5 4

CV Value

3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Fig. 6.17 County-level CV distribution in central south China (2018). Note Peak values from left to right are for Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, respectively

wide range of administrative jurisdiction, and the differences within the county are more prominent.

6.2 Spatial Equity of Rural Accessibility

183

7 6

CV Value

5 4 3 2 1 0

Fig. 6.18 County-level CV distribution in central southwest China (2018). Note Peak values from left to right are for Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet and Chongqing, respectively

5 4.5 4

CV Value

3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Fig. 6.19 County-level CV distribution in northwest China (2018). Note Peak values from left to right are for Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang, respectively

6.2.2 Analysis of Intercounty Equity of Accessibility To measure the difference in rural accessibility between different counties quantitatively, we use county as the analysis unit and evaluate the average distance between villages in the county and highway network by the maximum–minimum ratio, the CV and the Gini coefficient (Table 6.1). We find that there are significant differences. The degree of balance is basically consistent with the level of rural accessibility, that

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6 Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements

Table 6.1 Equity analysis of rural accessibility in different regions in China CV

Gini

North China

Avg. 7.117

Max/Min 86.158

1.011

0.395

Northeast China

9.759

96.244

0.740

0.356

East China

4.215

50.846

0.537

0.276

Central south China

4.785

36.020

0.524

0.281

Southwest China

10.581

128.250

1.014

0.410

Northwest China

10.442

122.922

1.054

0.403

is, the better the rural accessibility, the more balanced the rural accessibility level. There are certain differences in the measurement results of different equilibrium indicators. From the perspective of the CV, the equilibrium level of rural accessibility in central south China is the best, at only 0.524, and the maximum-to-minimum ratio is also the lowest. From the perspective of the Gini coefficient, the equilibrium level of rural accessibility in east China is the best, at 0.276. Some areas in east China have extremely poor rural accessibility, such as the Wuyi Mountains and Dabie Mountains, making the other two indicators relatively poor. However, the overall rural accessibility in east China is relatively balanced. The rural accessibility in southwest China and northwest China is the worst and most uneven. The CV of rural accessibility in northwest China is the largest. The maximum-to-minimum ratio and the Gini coefficient are the largest in southwest China. Although the level of rural accessibility in north China is relatively good, the degree of equilibrium is relatively poor. The Gini coefficient is as high as 0.395 in north China, which is close to that in northwest China. This indicates that rural transport in north China fails to achieve spatial equity. The absolute rural accessibility level in northeast China is generally poor, but the relative balance is better than that in north China. The Lorentz curve of rural accessibility in each region (Fig. 6.20) shows that the southwest, northwest, and north China regions with high Gini coefficients have some common features, that is, they are steeper on the right side of the curve. It shows that these regions have poorly accessible counties, specifically, Inner Mongolia in north China, Xinjiang in northwest China, and Tibet in southwest China. These areas are sparsely populated and have poor rural accessibility, which lowers the overall levels of these regions.

6.2.3 Relationship Between Accessibility and Transport Investment Investment in rural transport in China’s provinces does not completely match rural accessibility (Fig. 6.21). Comparing the standardised values for the number of villages with poor accessibility and the standardised values for changes in transport investment, in provinces with poor rural accessibility, there are areas with faster

6.2 Spatial Equity of Rural Accessibility

185

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

North

Northeast

East

Centural south

Southeast

Southwest

0.9

1

Fig. 6.20 Lorentz curve of rural accessibility in different regions

investment growth and slower investment growth. The rural accessibility in southwest China and northwest China is relatively poor. However, in recent years, transport investment in most provinces has been increasing, and the level of rural accessibility is continuously improving. For example, the investment in rural transport in Guizhou Province ranks the highest in the country and far exceeds that of the other provinces. Although the level of rural accessibility in Guizhou Province is relatively poor, it has received attention from government, and a considerable amount of investment has taken place to improve the rural transport infrastructure in the region. However, in Heilongjiang and Jilin in northeast China, Shaanxi and Xinjiang in northwest China and Zhejiang in east China, there are relatively more villages with poor accessibility, even surpassing Guizhou Province, but the growth of investment in rural transport is relatively lower. These provinces need special attention in the future. In addition, Sichuan Province also has more villages with poorer accessibility, which is related to the fact that the province has more mountainous villages. Rural transport investment in Sichuan Province has grown steadily. It is foreseeable that rural accessibility in the province will increase in the future. Improvements in accessibility are considered key to evaluating spatial spill-overs of transport infrastructure investment (Gutiérrez et al., 2010; Lee, 2021; Rokicki & St˛epniak, 2018). It is generally believed that transport infrastructure investment affects regional economic development by improving accessibility (Forslund & Johansson, 1995). Our study found that many areas with poor accessibility of rural settlements in China did not get enough investment in transport infrastructure. This seems to indicate that the government should continue to increase infrastructure investment in these remote villages, such as those in Heilongjiang. However, investment costs quickly balloon as the rural accessibility index increases (Mikou et al. 2019). For a country with a vast territory such as China, it is conceivable that a high investment is needed to improve rural accessibility sufficiently in all regions.

186

4 Standardized value of villages with poor accessibility

Fig. 6.21 Standardised scatterplot of rural transport investment changes and rural accessibility in different provinces

6 Accessibility and Its Spatial Equity of Rural Settlements

Sichuan 3

Heilongjiang Shaanxi Zhejiang

2 Xinjiang

Jilin

1

0

Inner Mongolia Gansu

Guizhou

Yunnan Guangxi

Hainan

-1 -1

0 1 2 3 4 Standardized value of rural transportation investment

5

Therefore, we still need to consider the necessity of further increasing rural transport investment, rather than blindly giving full play to the infrastructure construction advantages of the Chinese government. Case: Guizhou Province Develops While Borrowing, and the Hidden Debt is Still Severe On October 29, 2019, Guizhou Province completed a new round of debt issuance. According to the announcement issued by the Ministry of Finance of Guizhou Province, seven-year government general bonds with a scale of 390,795 million CNY were issued through the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In 2019, Guizhou issued a total of 10 issues of general government bonds, with a total amount of more than 96.7 billion CNY, including 43.7784 billion CNY of new debt. However, the trillions of fixed-assets investments every year is undoubtedly a heavy burden for Guizhou, whose financial self-sufficiency rate is less than 40%. According to the data released by Guizhou Provincial Department of Finance, the fiscal revenues of Guizhou Province from 2016 to 2018 were 838.579 billion CNY, 833.974 billion CNY and 932.717 billion CNY respectively. The subsidy revenue and debt revenue constituted the main part of fiscal revenue. At the same time, Guizhou, which has been in a backward position

6.3 Summary

187

for a long time, not only has a strong demand for construction and development, but also shoulders the important task of poverty alleviation. It is obviously not enough to rely on its own financial resources. Therefore, in recent years, the central government has continuously increased its financial support to Guizhou, especially through transfer payments. In 2019, the central government’s balanced transfer payment subsidy to Guizhou was 75.772 billion CNY, an increase of 9.1% over the previous year. The central financial special poverty alleviation fund allocated to Guizhou was 10.424 billion CNY, an increase of 22.7% over the previous year. This part of the fund is a free subsidy. Guizhou Province can use the fund for poverty alleviation and other related expenditures. Even so, it is still not enough to meet the huge capital demand of Guizhou. Financing by means of debt is an effective way of development for the local government, which bears the main power and expenditure responsibility. Guizhou’s local government debt ratio reached 207.73%, far exceeding the 100% warning line stipulated by China, making it the province with the highest debt ratio in China.

6.3 Summary The main conclusions of our research in this chapter are as follows. (1) Although there are regional differences, the connection between rural areas and the road network in China has reached a high level. Only a few remote villages have poor accessibility, and they are mainly in the western and northeast regions. In addition, villages with poor accessibility are sporadically distributed in eastern, central and southern provinces such as Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi and Hunan. (2) The counties with unbalanced accessibility are mainly concentrated west of the Hu Line. To the east of the Hu Line, the areas with large internal accessibility differences are mostly in Zhejiang, Guangdong and other provinces in Southeast China. This shows that high accessibility has not led to equilibrium in some regions. (3) As a whole, the better the rural accessibility is, the more balanced the rural accessibility is among different counties. The worse the rural accessibility is, the more unbalanced the rural accessibility is among different counties. (4) The accessibility of rural transport in southwest and northwest regions is poor, but in recent years, the transport investment in most provinces has increased, and the level of rural accessibility is improving.

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Chapter 7

Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

7.1 Methodology The questionnaire survey data came from the national small town detailed survey conducted by Peking University and other universities in cooperation with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development in 2016. The survey lasted for one year and carried out a detailed survey of 121 small towns in 31 provinces (districts and cities) in China. The survey content includes questionnaires for town residents, villagers and enterprises. The data for this study came from the questionnaire of rural residents in the survey data. Three villages were selected from each town by distance: near, middle and far. About 10 households were randomly selected from each village to fill in the questionnaire, and 2952 valid questionnaires were received. The investigation has several parts. The first part is the frequency and purpose of rural residents’ trips to towns and other counties. The second part is the route, duration and destination of residents’ daily trips for different purposes. At the same time, the questionnaire also contains basic social and economic attribute information for rural residents, including basic personal information, family situation, vehicle ownership situation, etc. Environment data are also included, for example, the number of facilities such as companies, shops and schools in the town, as well as field survey data such as bus frequency. Residents’ trips for different purposes often show different average travel distances, which indicates that different service functions of settlements actually have different service ranges. According to the survey results, the average travel distance for different travel destinations is estimated and calculated. The specific estimation method is as follows: n dj =

i=1 ti j

n

·

m 

vk pk j

k=1

In this formula, n is the total number of residents surve m is the total number of transport modes, d j is the average travel distance to travel destination j, ti j is the © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_7

189

190

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

travel time cost for travel to j by resident i, vk is the average speed of traffic mode k, and pk j is the proportion of people travelling to destination j by travel mode k.

7.2 Travel Behaviour and Rural Settlement System 7.2.1 Rural Settlement System Defined by Transport Flow Settlement system development is regarded as one of the basic objectives in land use planning (Gorbenkova & Shcherbina, 2020). A settlement system usually refers to a structural system formed by residential areas of different scales and grades within a certain range. Cities, towns and villages together constitute the human settlement system (Doxiadis, 1970). For instance, the US settlement system is characterised by two basic descriptors—urban–rural (US Census Bureau) and metropolitan– nonmetropolitan (Office of Management and Budget) (Morrill et al., 1999). The urban system has been studied extensively (Conzen, 1977; Ioannides & Overman, 2004; Johnston, 1982). However, although rural settlements are also human settlements, the research on the rural settlement system is less than that on urban systems. Several scholars have discussed the location (Hudson, 1969), economic structure (Rosner & Wesołowska, 2020) and transformation (Brebner, 1981; Wood, 1984) of rural settlements. When we evaluate rural settlements from a systematic perspective, we can pay attention to indicators such as the settlements’ population and the distance between settlements (Murel, 1970). The rural settlement system focuses not only on the individual features of each village, but also on the distribution and common structure of these villages. The study of the rural settlement system has great policy significance for promoting the coordinated and sustainable development of urban and rural areas (Shcherbina & Gorbenkova, 2018). Unbalanced and unequal spaces among urban and rural settlements are important subjects for economists and regional planners (Norei et al., 2009). Rural centres and small towns have connector roles among rural levels and large urban levels. The development effectiveness of a rural settlement system involves the solution to a number of matters in sustainable development, namely social welfare and environmental balance, economy and industry development, improving the pipeline and utility infrastructure, and improving the efficiency of the decision-making process (Harbiankova & Scherbina, 2021). Our habitat is better understood and acted upon as a network of interwoven settlements and the surrounding countryside (Afshar, 1998). As they are an important part of human settlements, we cannot ignore the significance of rural settlements. Transport is one of the main factors influencing the transformation of the rural settlement system (Chebotarev, 2021). The ability to provide services is an important

7.2 Travel Behaviour and Rural Settlement System

191

part of the evaluation of settlement systems (Zubarevich, 2013). Transport infrastructure improves accessibility and enables connections between different settlements, which in turn affects the service function of settlements (Perov, 2021). Transport infrastructure carries the flow of passengers and goods between settlements of different levels and scales and builds the basis for objective connection between different settlements (Wang & Jin, 2005). Travel behaviour and transport conditions can reflect the structure of the rural settlement system (Kuznetsova & Yakovleva, 2012). The quantitative measurement of the rural settlement system in this chapter focuses on three aspects: the strength of ties, types of ties and service area of settlements. Based on our travel survey, we use travel frequency, travel purpose and travel distance of rural residents in different destinations to reflect these three aspects (Fig. 7.1). Among them, the choice of destinations for villagers to travel between villages, towns and county seats reflects whether there are ties between settlements; the difference in the number of trips of villagers to towns and county seats reflects the differences in the ties between villages and towns or county seats; the travel distance of villagers reflects the spatial range of settlements’ service areas; and the travel purpose reflects the service functions and levels of settlements. As Chap. 2 indicated, the traditional rural settlement system in China has three levels: county level, township level and village level. The village level can also be divided into the administrative village level and the natural village level. In this chapter, we make no distinction between these two levels. The village is the most basic unit in Chinese rural areas. The vast majority of China’s rural residents live together in villages rather than being separated by family. There are usually dozens of people in a small village and hundreds in a large village. There are also a few villages with a population of more than 1000. A Chinese township usually consists of dozens of villages. The town, or the seat of the township, is usually the largest village in Patterns of the settlement system

Patterns of residents’ travel behaviour

Strength of ties between settlements

Residents’ travel frequency to different settlements

Service functions and levels of settlements

Residents’ travel purposes to different settlements

Range of settlements’ service area

Residents’ travel distance of different purposes

Fig. 7.1 Relationships between settlement systems and residents’ travel behaviour

192

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

the township. Similarly, a county usually consists of more than a dozen townships. The county seat is usually the largest town in the county. Traditionally, villages have the smallest service areas and the simplest service functions. The service area of the town is larger than the village, but smaller than the county seat. The town can meet some needs of some villagers, such as buying some daily necessities. In contrast, the county can provide richer services and commodities. In this chapter, we test whether and how much the current Chinese rural settlement system has changed based on our survey.

7.2.2 Travel Frequency The frequency of residents’ contact with high-level settlements reveals the strength and structure of connections between different levels of settlements in the system (Tian et al., 2016). We surveyed how often villagers go to higher-level settlements at the county and town levels. There are four options in the questionnaire: 1. generally do not go; 2. low frequency (once half a year or more); 3. medium frequency (once a week to half a year); and 4. high frequency (once a week or less). The results show that the frequency of rural residents traveling to high-level settlements reduces with an increase in the level of service areas, and the range of movement shows that the village–town connection is stronger than the village–county connection. Thus, villagers have the closest connections with their towns: 61% of villagers have to go to their towns at least once a week, and 15.6% of them go to the county seat at least once a week. Spatial patterns (Fig. 7.2) also generally follow the same rule, that is, the proportion of high-frequency trips from villages to towns is very high, while the proportion of high-frequency trips from villages to counties is relatively low. However, the results also show some regional differences, reflecting the differences in the structural characteristics of the rural areal system in different regions. The coefficient of variation of the proportion of high-frequency trips to the county seat and the proportion of high-frequency journeys to the town are 1.165 and 0.472 respectively, which shows that the difference is mainly reflected in the proportion of high-frequency trips to the county seat. In addition, the proportion of high-frequency journeys to the town is relatively small, which indicates that there is still a close relationship between villages and towns in China. Specifically, the village–town relationship in south China is relatively close, which shows that the towns in this area have strong service functions for villagers. At the same time, some villages in Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Henan, Hubei and Gansu have a higher proportion of high-frequency trips to the county seat. These villages are closely linked with the county seat. The traditional village–town–county three-level system has been changed, and villagers tend to go directly to higher-level central settlements to receive high-level services. The Moran’s I is only 0.2064, and the p-value is 0.7039, which indicates that the agglomeration is not significant.

7.2 Travel Behaviour and Rural Settlement System

193

Fig. 7.2 Proportion distribution of villagers’ frequent visits to towns and county seats

There is a certain correlation between the distance from the county seat and the frequency with which villagers travel to it, but the relationship seems to be more complex. Figure 7.3 shows that for villagers who are more than 30 km away from the county seat, there is a relatively more obvious distance attenuation feature, that is, the farther away they are from the county seat, the smaller the proportion of

Fig. 7.3 Proportion of villagers going to the county seat and the distance involved

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents the proportion of villagers going to the county seat

194 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0

20 40 60 80 100 the distance between the village and the county seat(km)

high-frequency travel to the county seat. However, for villagers within 30 km from the county, this distance attenuation relationship is relatively less prominent, which indicates that whether the villagers often go to the county seat is affected not only by geographical distance, but also by other factors, such as travel mode, etc. For villagers who own cars, the distance of 30 km takes about 20–30 min, which is within the time budget for villagers’ daily travel. The travel frequency of such villagers to the county is limited by the geographical distance.

7.2.3 Travel Purposes Residents often choose different levels of settlements as their main destinations when they travel for different purposes (Schauer, 2003; Tacoli, 2003). Some basic services can usually be provided by local settlements, while some high-level services often need to be provided by higher-level settlements (Nutley, 2005). The preference choice of rural residents’ travel destination reveals the function level characteristics of settlements in the areal system. Figure 7.4 shows that the choice tendency of villagers’ travel destination is different for the four travel purposes of shopping, purchasing agricultural means, medical treatment and visiting relatives. (1) Villages and towns are still the main shopping places for villagers. The average value of the relative travel index of shopping in the investigated villages is -0.13, but there are regional differences in China. Villagers in south China generally choose towns as shopping places, while villagers in north China mostly choose county seats as their main shopping places. The township economy in south China is relatively developed, and it can provide rich products. However, the township economy in north China is relatively undeveloped, and the distribution density of county-level administrative units is relatively high. Therefore, villagers may prefer the county seat as the main shopping place.

7.2 Travel Behaviour and Rural Settlement System

195

a

b

Fig. 7.4 Relative travel index distribution of villagers for four travel purposes a shopping, b agricultural production and material supply, c medical treatment, d visiting relatives

196

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

c

d

Fig. 7.4 (continued)

7.2 Travel Behaviour and Rural Settlement System

197

(2) Agricultural production and material supply are core factors in maintaining the traditional village–town connection. The average value of the relative travel index of purchasing agricultural materials in the investigated villages is -0.47, which indicates that villages in China generally use towns as places to purchase agricultural production-related materials, and selling agricultural materials is also a special service function that most towns can provide compared with higher-level settlements, which plays a unique role in the areal system. Only a small number of villagers tend to choose the county seat to buy agricultural materials, perhaps because the towns in which these villages are located cannot provide certain agricultural materials. (3) Medical treatment is a relatively low-frequency service. Chinese villagers generally choose the county seat for medical treatment. The average value of the relative travel index for medical treatment in the investigated villages is 0.19, which reflects that the township-level health centres or hospitals are often not able to perform this function. To get better medical services, villagers are generally reluctant to choose township-level clinics or hospitals, but they are willing to accept greater travel costs to the county seat. This shows that the township level in China currently does not provide satisfactory medical services to villagers, and it only provides less than half of their medical needs. (4) The average relative travel index for visiting relatives of the investigated villages is 0.13. With the rapid development of China’s urbanisation, the children of rural residents often go directly to the county seat or prefecture-level city for employment, while the towns in which they are located often cannot provide sufficient employment opportunities, which makes them less attractive to young people. This also virtually constructs a link between the county seat and the village through the relationships between parents and children, leading to the village–county connection surpassing the traditional village–town connection. It is worth noting that the connection between villages and counties in northeast China is generally weaker than that between villages and towns, which may be related to the fact that a considerable number of local young people go to other parts of the country rather than local county seats, resulting in the failure to build connections between villages and county seats. In this region, the traditional connection between villages and towns still plays a leading role. From the way villagers buy various kinds of goods or services (Table 7.1), we can see that there are significant differences between different goods or services. (1) From the horizontal comparison, we can see that as the provision of goods and services in China’s village-level units is not perfect, villagers rarely buy all their goods or services in the village. Towns and counties are two important settlements that provide goods and services, of which towns play the most important role; (2) from the vertical comparison, the two functions of providing agricultural supplies and daily services are mainly provided by towns. About one-third of villagers do not buy agricultural materials, which indicates that some villagers may not engage in agricultural activities; (3) the proportion of provision of clothing, household appliances and furniture, and entertainment activities follows a decreasing pattern from

32.7

27.5

5.5

11.8

4.5

3.0

Household appliances and furniture

Daily life services

Entertainment activities

Valuables

76.7

50.1

54.1

6.0

Clothing

54.8

7.1

26.4

13.8

5.9

26.4

23.1

3.1

17.1

4.6

1.8

10.4

8.3

0.8

3.2

0.5

0.2

1.5

1.3

0.1

1.4

0.4

0.1

1.1

3.8

0.1

1.0

0.9

0.4

0.5

0.8

0.6

20.5

42.6

3.1

4.5

2.6

33.4

Local village Local township County seat Prefecture-Level Provincial capital Shopping online Other places Never pay for this city kind of goods or services

Proportion (%)

Agricultural materials

Kind of goods and services

Table 7.1 Proportion of different ways for villagers to purchase various kinds of goods and services

198 7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

7.2 Travel Behaviour and Rural Settlement System

199

town to county seat, which indicates that all levels of settlements can provide these kinds of goods and services, but that these goods and services may have different levels. For example, people will buy ordinary clothes in their own towns, but they will also go to the county seat or prefecture-level city to buy high-end clothes; (4) the function of providing valuables is more likely to be undertaken by high-level settlements, and the proportion of villagers who go to the county seat, prefecturelevel city or even provincial capital to buy valuables is significantly higher than that of other goods and clothes; (5) nearly half the surveyed villagers do not engage in entertainment consumption, indicating that the function of providing entertainment may be lacking in China’s rural areal system.

7.2.4 Travel Distance and Time According to the survey results (Fig. 7.5), the travel time of villagers for different purposes is mostly 0–20 min, forming a villagers’ life circle within 20 min. However, the structure of travel modes for different purposes is different. For example, trips to market are mainly within the villagers’ 20-min walking life circle, while trips for entertainment are mainly within the villagers’ 20-min car life circle. The results show that the average travel distances of residents for different travel purposes are significantly different (Fig. 7.6), which also confirms that different functions have different service ranges. Among them, the entertainment function has the largest service range, and the average distance for the top 10% of entertainment travel is estimated at more than 25 km, which indicates that some villages and towns in China may not have sound entertainment and leisure services. There are no entertainment or leisure facilities in many villages, so the residents in villages and towns may need to travel for longer distances for entertainment. The second is the service range for dining, visiting relatives and going to work. The average distance for the top 10% of travel for these purposes is estimated at 20–25 km. Catering services and economic production functions are mainly provided in towns, while visiting Entertaining Visiting relatives Dining Farming Going to market Schooling Working 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

< 10 min

10-20 min

20-30 min

30-40 min

40-50 min

50-60 min

1-2 hours

> 2 hours

Fig. 7.5 Travel times of rural residents for different purposes

200

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Entertaining

Visiting Dining Farming Going to Schooling Working relatives market Top 10% average Top 20% average Top 50% average Average

Fig. 7.6 Estimated average travel distances of rural residents for different purposes

relatives normally involves travelling between villages within the town. The service range is followed by schooling and farming, and the average distance of the top 10% of travel is estimated at 15–20 km. Most secondary schools are in towns, while there are primary schools in some villages. It should be noted that many primary schools in villages are being merged, which is actually increasing the average travel distance of primary-school students and bringing inconvenience to some families. Going to market has the smallest service range. The average travel distance for the top 10% is estimated at about 15 km, while the average travel distance for the top 50% is estimated at about 7.5 km. In addition to the villages and towns, markets also exist in some traditional commercial villages, and their service range is relatively limited. With the increase in the number of motor vehicles in rural areas, the trend of rural motorisation is becoming more and more obvious. Traveling by car is gradually becoming popular in rural areas, which increases the daily travel distance of villagers and expands the scope of trips. The results show that villagers in some areas usually choose cars to travel to higher-level central settlements. Figures 7.7 and 7.8 show that there are two main types of areas in which villagers are used to using cars to travel to the county seat. One is certain villages in Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province. In these areas, the level of rural economic and social development is relatively high, villagers’ income is generally relatively high, car ownership is high and the transport infrastructure is good, which encourages villagers to use cars to travel. The other is certain villages in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other places, where the population density is low and the distribution of villages and towns is sparse. It is more inconvenient to travel by other modes of transport, which do not meet the travel needs of villagers. Therefore, local villagers tend to travel by car when conditions permit. The difference in the proportion of car trips to the county seat and town is not particularly obvious, and there are no obvious regional differentiation characteristics. Moran’s I is only − 0.1429, and the p-value is 0.8117. On the whole, those going to the county seat are more likely to use cars than those going to the town, and the overall proportion difference is 11.56%. With the increasing popularity of cars in rural areas, the travel range of rural residents has been expanded, so that villagers

7.3 Factors in Travel Frequency to Different Levels of Settlements

201

Fig. 7.7 Proportion of villagers using cars to go to the county seat with high frequency

can more flexibly and conveniently go to higher-level service centres such as county seats and prefecture-level cities. This has promoted the structural transformation of the rural areal system.

7.3 Factors in Travel Frequency to Different Levels of Settlements 7.3.1 Township Residents’ Travel and Rural Settlement System Table 7.2 shows the impact of individual-level socioeconomic attributes, travel capacity and town-level macroenvironmental variables on the travel frequency of town residents to city- and county-level urban areas. First, the socioeconomic attributes of individuals, especially gender, occupation, education level and family income, are key factors affecting the frequency of travel. The influence of age is weak. With increasing age, the frequency of residents going to cities and counties has reduced, but the impact is low. Looking at gender, the travel frequency of male residents is significantly higher than that of female residents (1.318 times), and the frequency ratio of male residents is 1.266 times of that of female residents. The impact of different occupations on the travel frequency of residents varies.

202

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

Fig. 7.8 The difference in the proportion of villagers using cars to go to the county seat and the town with high frequency

Compared with the unemployed, there is no significant difference in the travel frequency of farmers and those who rely on odd jobs to the city or county seat at all levels. However, the proportion of businessmen and residents with formal jobs (enterprises or government departments) who prefer high-frequency travel is significantly higher, at 1.331–1.47 times that of the unemployed. Those with higher education levels are gradually increasing their travel frequency between cities and county seats. Highly educated people choose to travel more frequently than less educated people. The influence of family income is slightly lower than that of education level, and the influence of income gap on residents going to the county seat is higher than that to prefecture-level cities. From the perspective of travel demand, travel capacity and travel distance, whether there are multiple travel demands, ownership of cars and motorcycles, bus station configuration and travel distance have an impact on residents’ travel frequency at all levels. The impact of travel distance is weak, and the convenience of road facilities has no significant impact on residents’ travel frequency choice. Multiple travel demands have the greatest impact on residents’ travel frequency, in particular the occurrence of high-frequency travel to prefecture-level cities, which is 4.28 times that of travel to other locations. Among the means of transport, the ownership of cars has the greatest impact on residents’ travel. Residents with cars go to the city and county seats more frequently than residents without cars. In terms of public transport supply, the accessibility of bus stops has a significant impact on residents’ travel frequency. Residents who can easily get to bus stops choose to travel about

7.3 Factors in Travel Frequency to Different Levels of Settlements

203

Table 7.2 Regression results of township residents’ frequency of going to cities and county towns Category

Personal

Factor

Model (1): to city

Model (2): to county seat

Coefficient

Coefficient

Odds

Odds

Age

− 0.0247***

0.976

− 0.0261***

0.974

Male

0.276***

1.318

0.236***

1.266

Occupation (Reference group: unemployment) Farmers

− 0.0637

0.938

− 0.0962

0.908

Doing odd jobs

0.0323

1.033

0.0615

1.063

Running small business

0.386***

1.470

0.382***

1.465

Doing formal jobs

0.286***

1.331

0.351***

1.420

1.386

0.338***

1.402

Education level (Reference group: primary school) Secondary school

Family

Transport

Location

0.326***

High school

0.573***

1.774

0.626***

1.870

University or above

0.748***

2.113

0.912***

2.488

Family income (Reference group: low income) Middle income

0.376***

1.456

0.421***

1.522

High income

0.622***

1.863

0.770***

2.160

Family size

− 0.0728***

0.930

− 0.0547**

0.947

Minors in the family

− 0.0449

0.956

− 0.00923

0.991

Seniors (> 60) in the family

0.0733

1.076

0.109**

1.115

Multiple travel demands

1.454***

4.280

0.999***

2.716

Owning a car

0.743***

2.102

0.879***

2.407

Owning a motorcycle

0.225***

1.253

0.211***

1.235

Owning an electric bike

–

–

0.0604

1.062

Bus stop nearby

0.210***

1.234

0.200***

1.222

Frequency of shuttle bus to the county seat

− 0.00640

0.994

0.00121

1.001

Road convenience

− 0.197

0.821

− 0.0451

0.956

Distance from county seat

–

–

− 0.0164***

0.984

Distance from prefecture-level city

− 0.00798***

0.992 (continued)

204

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

Table 7.2 (continued) Category

Services supply of township

Factor

Model (1): to city

Model (2): to county seat

Coefficient

Coefficient

Odds

Odds

Number of companies (Reference group: Few) Middle

0.151

1.163

0.199

1.220

Many

− 0.275

0.759

0.138

1.148

Middle

0.316

1.371

− 0.154

0.857

Many

0.611**

1.843

− 0.496***

0.609

Number of shops (Reference group: few)

Regular market frequency (Reference group: low frequency) Middle frequency

–

–

− 0.197

0.821

High frequency

–

–

− 0.292**

0.747

Middle

− 0.667**

0.513

− 0.515***

0.597

Many

− 0.807**

0.446

− 0.291

0.748

Number of schools (Reference group: few)

Number of medical facilities (Reference group: few) Middle

− 0.330

0.719

− 0.204

0.815

Many

0.267

1.306

0.0993

1.104

Sample size

12,524

12,524

ICC

0.263

0.175

Proportion of variance reduction between groups

22.16%

54.92%

LR test versus ologit

Sig < 0.01

Sig < 0.01

*** p-value < 0.01 ** p-value < 0.05 * p-value < 0.1

1.2 times as often as other residents, while the departure frequency of buses has no significant impact. Thus, residents’ external contact is more sensitive to the convenience of public transport facilities than to the absolute influence of bus frequency supply. The model takes account of the impact of employment opportunities, business and public service supply on the frequency of going out. The regression results show that the supply of business services and schools has a significant impact on the travel frequency of residents, while employment opportunities (indicated by the number of companies) and the number of medical facilities have no significant impact. Small

7.3 Factors in Travel Frequency to Different Levels of Settlements

205

towns with high levels of commercial service supply are frequent destinations for travel, but small towns with low levels of supply have 40% fewer visitors. The number of schools has the greatest impact on the town–city connection. The occurrence of high-frequency travel in town residents with more schools going to the prefecturelevel city is 55.4% lower than that in towns with fewer schools, which indicates that the supply of schools removes the need for parents to send their children to places with higher service levels. Medical treatment is one of the main purposes of residents’ travel, but the impact of growth in the number of hospitals on residents’ travel is not significant, which indicates that there are absolute hierarchical differences in the distribution of hospitals in different administrative levels, and that an increase of the number of facilities alone will not address the high-level medical needs of residents.

7.3.2 Villagers’ Travel and Rural Settlement System Table 7.3 shows that the frequency of rural residents going to the county seat and town-level urban areas is affected by socioeconomic attributes and traffic capacity at the individual level and by environmental variables at the town level. On the whole, age, occupation, education level and family income level have an impact on the trip frequency of villagers. The frequency of males to county and town destinations are 1.203 and 1.334 times higher than those of females, respectively. The impact of occupational categories on villagers’ travel is stronger at the town level. The occurrence ratio of high-frequency travel for four occupational categories is significantly higher than that of the unemployed. The highest occurrence ratio of high-frequency travel of the people with formal work is 2.578 times of that of the unemployed. The impact of different education levels on travel frequency increases significantly with the change of destination from town to county seat. With an increase in educational level, the difference in impact intensity also expands gradually. The high-frequency rates of villagers with high education levels going to the county seat and the town are 2.804 times and 1.942 times of those of villagers with low education levels, respectively. Among travel characteristics, travel demand, ownership of some means of transport and distance have a significant impact on the villagers’ travel frequency. Whether there are multiple travel demands and whether there are cars have a greater impact on residents’ travel frequency, while distance has a smaller impact. The ownership of agricultural vehicles and bicycles has no significant impact on villagers’ travel frequency. The regression results show a similar influence of e-bikes and motorcycles on the frequency of villagers going to the town. For this distance, residents rely on e-bikes slightly more than motorcycles. However, rural residents are more dependent on cars when they go to the county seat. Villagers with cars make 2.786 times more frequent trips than those without cars. The regression model calculates the influence of employment opportunities, business, education and medical service supply on villagers’ frequency of going out. The regression results show that the number of shops and medical facilities in the town has a significant impact on villagers’ travel frequency. The number of shops

206

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

Table 7.3 Regression results of rural residents’ frequency of going to county seat and local town Category

Personal

Factors

Model (3): to county seat

Model (4): to town

Coefficient

Odds

Factors

Odds

Age

− 0.0287***

0.972

− 0.0258***

0.975

Male

0.187**

1.203

0.289***

1.334

Occupation (Reference group: Unemployment) Farmers

0.175

1.202

0.391***

1.479

Doing odd jobs

0.264

1.314

0.512***

1.669

Running small business

0.701***

2.038

0.694***

2.001

Doing formal jobs

0.539***

1.740

0.944***

2.569

Education level (Reference group: Primary school)

Family

Transport

Location

Service supply of township

Secondary school

0.242**

1.271

0.158

1.171

High school

0.846***

2.333

0.590***

1.803

University or above

1.030***

2.804

0.663***

1.942

Family income (Reference group: Low income) Middle income

0.608***

1.837

0.312***

1.366

High income

1.178***

3.234

0.661***

1.937

Multiple travel demands 0.638**

1.896

0.697***

2.007

Owning a car

1.028***

2.786

0.672***

1.959

Owning a motorcycle

0.186**

1.204

0.371***

1.449

Owning an agricultural vehicle

–

–

− 0.121

0.886

Owning an electric bike

0.0879

1.089

0.405***

1.499

Owning a bike

–

–

− 0.0174

0.983

Distance from town centre

–

–

− 0.0353***

0.965

Distance from county seat

− 0.0205***

0.980

–

–

Middle

0.444*

1.554

− 0.239

0.787

Many

0.123

1.129

− 0.125

0.883

Middle

0.0565

1.004

0.747***

2.110

Many

− 0.186

0.831

0.538*

Number of companies (Reference group: Few)

Number of shops (Reference group: few) 1.712 (continued)

7.3 Factors in Travel Frequency to Different Levels of Settlements

207

Table 7.3 (continued) Category

Factors

Model (3): to county seat

Model (4): to town

Coefficient

Factors

Odds

Odds

Regular market frequency (Reference group: low frequency) Middle frequency

− 0.0214

0.981

− 0.186

0.830

High frequency

− 0.0836

0.921

0.0209

1.021

Middle

− 0.597**

0.550

− 0.360

0.697

Many

− 0.326

0.722

0.0240

1.024

Number of schools (Reference group: few)

Number of medical facilities (Reference group: few) Middle

− 0.447*

0.641

− 0.693***

0.500

Many

− 0.403

0.669

− 0.881***

0.414

Sample size

2952

2952

ICC

0.252

0.224

Proportion of variance reduction between groups

19.68%

32.55%

LR test versus ologit

Sig < 0.01

Sig < 0.01

*** p-value < 0.01 ** p-value < 0.05 * p-value < 0.1

increases villagers’ travel frequency to the town, but has no significant impact on villagers’ travel frequency to the county seat. An increase in the number of medical facilities in the town reduces the villagers’ travel frequency, which may be due to the relatively complete allocation of medical facilities. There are health stations and other forms of rural medical points in rural areas. There is no big difference in the treatment level between towns and villages. The cost of solving this kind of medical demand in villages is lower, and villagers prefer to meet their medical demand in villages.

7.3.3 Discussion First, the socioeconomic attributes of individuals, especially education level, family income, formal employment or not, and gender are the key factors affecting the travel frequency of town and rural residents, and the influence of age is weak. Compared with farmers and part-time workers, males with high education levels, high incomes and formal employment in business or enterprises and institutions have stronger

208

7 Travel Behaviour of Rural Residents

mobility, which is closely related to their lifestyle and economic ability. These results are consistent with most Western rural transport studies. It is generally believed that females, low-income people and other vulnerable groups often lack mobility due to their physical situation, not having a driving licence, economic ability, social status and car use rights. In addition, for rural residents, the mobility differences among different groups become larger as the service level changes from town to county. For town residents, the impact of personal socioeconomic attributes on their mobility to the county is higher than that for urban residents. This shows that the impact of individual socioeconomic attributes on the scope of activities of rural residents at the county level is the most obvious. Secondly, the impact of travel demand and travel capacity (owning motor vehicles and convenient access to bus stops) on residents’ travel frequency is far greater than travel distance and transport convenience. Unlike the traditional agricultural location theory and some former conclusions of descriptive travel research on rural residents, our study found that location and transport factors are not the main factors affecting the intensity of the urban–rural relationship. For township residents, travel demand has a greater impact, and the impact on prefecture-level travel is greater than that on county level; for rural residents, car ownership has the greatest impact on going to the county, while for relatively short-distance travel to the township, travel demand and car ownership have the same impact, and owning motorcycles and electric bicycles also enhances their mobility. Under the current situation in which rural public transport and village-to-village highway are fully covered, residents’ external travel demand is less sensitive to road convenience and the absolute supply of public transport. The availability of means of transport (i.e. having suitable means of transport or bus stops) is the main factor affecting travel ability, which further affects the residents’ mobility. In a word, residents’ regional travel decision-making tends to be related to the strength of travel demand and the availability of transport rather than the travel distance. Thirdly, the supply of commercial facilities and public service facilities has an impact on residents’ travel frequency, but the impact of employment opportunities is not significant. In terms of employment opportunities, the town provides a variety of employment opportunities for local residents, so the proportion of localised employment is more than 90%, but the ability to attract rural residents to the town for employment is insufficient. For township residents, improvements in the supply level of commercial services and schools avoid the need for interregional travel at prefecture and county levels. Especially when shopping and entertainment is the main purpose of township residents, a sufficient supply of localised commercial services greatly reduces the frequency of residents’ travel to other areas. For villagers, the commercial vitality of the town has a strong attraction, but the supply of medical facilities does not attract rural residents to come to the town for medical treatment, which indicates that there are obvious level differences in the current medical facilities in different levels of service and threshold value. Most township health centres can only meet the needs of minor diseases, which is similar to the service level in rural areas. There is no significant difference in service capacity. If residents have serious illness, they still need to go to hospitals of higher levels in big cities.

References

209

7.4 Summary The main conclusions of our research in this chapter are as follows. (1) Although the village–town–county seat hierarchical system is still dominant in China’s rural areas, the connection between village and county cannot be ignored and has become a new trend. (2) From the perspective of travel purpose, agricultural production and material supply activities still follow the village–town–county seat hierarchical system. But the proportion of village–county seat travel for medical treatment activities, leisure and entertainment activities, family visits and other activities is relatively high, which is more obvious in the eastern developed areas. (3) This shows that travel time for different purposes is maintained at 20 min, forming a 20-min living circle. The scope of this kind of life circle may be different from that of urban areas. For some travel purposes, the travel range of rural residents may be smaller than that of urban residents, because these trips are limited in villages and the scale of villages is generally small. However, for many other purposes, the travel range of rural residents is larger, because they have to go to other villages or towns. (4) With the rise of car ownership and the further improvement of the rural road network, the travel range of rural residents is increasing. The traditional village– town–county seat hierarchical system in China will therefore change greatly. (5) Age, occupation, education level and family income level all have an impact on the travel frequency of villagers.

References Afshar, F. (1998). Balancing global city with global village. Habitat International, 22(4), 375–387. Brebner, P. (1981). Algeria: The transformation of a settlement system. Third World Planning Review, 3(1), 43. Chebotarev, D. (2021). Transformation of the regional settlement system and the factors affecting the spatial development in the Ivanovo region. IOP conference series: Materials science and engineering, IOP Publishing. Conzen, M. P. (1977). The maturing urban system in the United States, 1840–1910. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 67(1), 88–108. Doxiadis, C. A. (1970). Ekistics, the science of human settlements: Ekistics starts with the premise that human settlements are susceptible of systematic investigation. Science, 170(3956), 393–404. Gorbenkova, E., & Shcherbina, E. (2020). Historical-genetic features in rural settlement system: A case study from Mogilev District (Mogilev Oblast, Belarus). Land, 9(5), 165. Harbiankova, A., & Scherbina, E. (2021). Evaluation model for sustainable development of settlement system. Sustainability, 13(21), 11778. Hudson, J. C. (1969). A location theory for rural settlement. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 59(2), 365–381. Ioannides, Y. M., & Overman, H. G. (2004). Spatial evolution of the US urban system. Journal of Economic Geography, 4(2), 131–156.

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Johnston, R. J. (1982). The American urban system: A geographical perspective, Longman, London St. Martin’s New York. Kuznetsova, S., & Yakovleva, S. (2012). Estimation of the impact of transport conditions on the demographic development and structure of the rural settlement pattern in Tver oblast. Regional Research of Russia, 2(3), 234–240. Morrill, R., Cromartie, J., & Hart, G. (1999). Metropolitan, urban, and rural commuting areas: Toward a better depiction of the United States settlement system. Urban Geography, 20(8), 727–748. Murel, V. (1970). Indicators characterizing systems of rural settlement. Soviet Geography, 11(3), 166–173. Norei, H., Hoseineiabarei, S., & Khademei, H. (2009). The role of small cities in the equilibration of rural settlement system of Yazd Province. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 7(13), 61–77. Nutley, S. D. (2005). Monitoring rural travel behaviour: A longitudinal study in Northern Ireland 1979–2001. Journal of Transport Geography, 13(3), 247–263. Perov, F. (2021). Requirements for transport accessibility during service organization in the settlement system in the north of Tyumen Region. Transportation Research Procedia, 57, 392–397. Rosner, A., & Wesołowska, M. (2020). Deagrarianisation of the economic structure and the evolution of rural settlement patterns in Poland. Land, 9(12), 523. Schauer, P. (2003). The trip to town: Rural transportation patterns and developments since 1900. TR News, 225, 4–11. Shcherbina, E. V., & Gorbenkova, E. V. (2018). Modelling the rural settlement development. Materials Science Forum, Trans Tech. Tacoli, C. (2003). The links between urban and rural development. Environment and Urbanization, 15(1), 3–12. Tian, Y., Kong, X., Liu, Y., et al. (2016). Restructuring rural settlements based on an analysis of inter-village social connections: A case in Hubei Province, Central China. Habitat International, 57, 121–131. Wang, C., & Jin, F. (2005). Research history and developing trend about geography of transportation in China. Progress in Geography, 24(6), 66–78. Wood, J. S. (1984). Elaboration of a settlement system: The New England village in the federal period. Journal of Historical Geography, 10(4), 331–356. Zubarevich, N. (2013). Transformation of the rural settlement pattern and social services network in rural areas. Regional Research of Russia, 3(3), 221–233.

Chapter 8

Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

8.1 Methodology This chapter defines urban and rural spatial range based on land use data, point of interest data and mobile phone data. We make the land use data consistent with the mobile phone data by spatial resampling. Urban construction land connected with prefecture-level and above city government is regarded as the prefecture-level and above city urban area. Urban construction land contiguous with the county government is designated as the county seat area. Urban construction land connected with township government is regarded as town area. To check the possible errors in land use data in distinguishing between urban construction land and rural residential land, we made further corrections based on the residential data of mobile phone users. Grids with an average daily residential population of more than 8000 people within the 3 km buffer zone of the township government are defined as the town area.1 The remaining areas covered by grids other than these three kinds of areas are regarded as rural areas, and the mobile phone signalling trip records of users in these areas are regarded as rural residents’ trips. This chapter takes the Jingjinji2 area as the research area. According to the Outline of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Coordinated Development Planning reviewed and approved by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in 2015, the planning area of Jingjinji coordinated development includes two municipalities directly under the Central Government, Beijing and Tianjin, and 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province, which is taken as the range of the research region in this chapter. The data for this chapter have three parts, namely mobile phone data, spatial environment data and statistical data. Among them, mobile phone data are mainly used to analyse residents’ spatial activities, spatial environment data are used to 1

The standard of 8000 people comes from Hebei Province’s Guidance on Setting up Towns and Sub-District Offices for Withdrawing Towns. 2 Jingjinji refers to the area of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei. Specifically, Jing is the abbreviation of Beijing, Jin is the abbreviation of Tianjin, and Ji is the abbreviation of Hebei. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_8

211

212

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

distinguish urban from rural space and to analyse influencing factors, and statistical data are used to analyse influencing factors. The mobile phone data came from an operator that covers the whole of the study area. The operator has a market share of about 30% in the study area. The data include residential data and origin–destination (OD) data. To ensure the privacy of personal information, the data do not involve user IDs, but they are summarised by time, space and user attributes. The time recording interval of OD data is 30 min, and the spatial unit of data is a 1 km grid. In this sample, mobile phone signalling averaged 70.7 million travel chain records per day in June 2018. To ensure the reliability of data, abnormal null values and extreme values in mobile phone signalling data are screened out. Based on the structural differences between the user characteristics of operators and the actual population characteristics, the user scale and structure are expanded by zoning to ensure data representativeness. After data cleaning and screening processing combined with spatial environment data, 41.03 million individual travel chain records of 18.882 million rural users are obtained. Compared with survey data and data captured from the internet, mobile phone data have advantages in sample size, sample representativeness and temporal and spatial granularity, which can reveal the spatiotemporal activity characteristics of the population in a relatively complete way. Spatial environment data come from the college of urban and environmental geography data platform of the College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University (https://geodata.pku.edu.cn/). The data include land use data, point of interest data, digital elevation model data and road network data. The land use data are from 2015. The Landsat remote sensing image data was the main information source and the three-level classification of land use types was obtained through visual interpretation. A 1:10-scale database was established, and the spatial unit of data was a 30 m grid. The road network data came from 2018. The statistical data used in this chapter include the Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2019, Tianjin Statistical Yearbook 2019 and Hebei Statistical Yearbook 2019, and the statistical data are all from 2018, which is consistent with the time of the mobile phone data.

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents Geographical scale is an important issue in geographical research, and the amount of information represented by geographical phenomena at different scales varies (Howitt, 1993). Compared with small-scale areas such as villages, larger-scale areas such as metropolitan areas tend to have different resource endowments, different population size distributions and differentiated economic development levels on a relatively larger scale (Bourne, 1991; Kellerman, 1984). On the large geographical scale, residents’ spatial choices of employment, consumption and housing involve a complex spatial process, especially in mega-city regions, where diverse spatial organisation functions, multidirectional flows of spatial elements and overlapping

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

213

spatial organisation effects form more complex residents’ trips (Hall & Pain, 2006; Xu & Yeh, 2015; Yeh & Chen, 2020). Due to the limitations of data availability and sampling representativeness, it has always been difficult to study residents’ travel patterns on large geographical scales (Fang et al., 2020). In this part, we try to determine two important travel patterns: travel distance and travel frequency of rural residents in mega-city regions.

8.2.1 Travel Distance Human mobility has become one of the foci of transport geography, regional economics, sociology, urban and rural planning, and even epidemiology (Barbosa et al., 2018). Residents’ travel distance is an important issue in the study of human mobility and an important measurement feature of residents’ travel behaviour (Ewing & Cervero, 2001). Residents’ travel distance is not only related to the strength of residents’ personal travel ability (Choudhary & Vasudevan, 2017; Nutley, 1996; Nutley & Thomas, 1992) but also closely related to local built environment factors and regional geographical environment factors (Plazini´c & Jovi´c, 2018; Powe et al., 2009; Pucher & Renne, 2005; Van Leeuwen & Rietveld, 2011). The travel distance of residents reflects the scale of residents’ participation in social and economic activities, and it also indirectly represents their quality of life. Compared with cities and towns, rural areas have completely different material and sociocultural space characteristics (Adeel, 2018). Rural residents have unique characteristics of travel behaviour, which is of indispensable value. Current research shows that the distribution of residents’ travel distance follows a spatiotemporal law that can be characterised. González et al. (2008) found that people’s travel trajectories showed a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, and that each individual resident had a characteristic travel distance independent of time and significant probability of going to several high-frequency destination locations. Brockmann et al. (2006) believe that human travel behaviour is a superdiffusion process on the geographical scale, and that the group distribution of residents’ travel distance generated by this process usually conforms to the power-law distribution. The travel distance rule of the power-law distribution has also been further confirmed in many empirical studies of other cities, that is, the travel distance distribution of residents is feature free (Alessandretti et al., 2020; Yan et al., 2017). At present, most studies on travel distance distribution focus on urban residents, but relatively few on rural residents. Current studies in China mainly include the research by Han (2017) on rural geography in Shanxi, which found that the general travel range of rural residents in this area is five kilometres and eight villages around the rural market; that is, there is a specific maximum travel distance for rural residents. Liu et al. (2010) studied the travel distance distribution of rural residents in Shaanxi Province through a questionnaire survey, and they believed that there was an exponential distribution function relationship between the accumulated frequency of

214

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

villagers’ trips and the travel distance. In general, current studies have not formed a clear understanding of the general travel distance rules of rural residents. According to our analysis based on mobile phone data, the average travel distance of villagers in this area is 14.32 km, of which the average travel distance inside the county is 3.90 km. There are three typical characteristics in the distribution of villagers’ travel distance. Firstly, most of the trips are less than 1 km in length, and these trips might be activities inside the village, accounting for 75.51% of all trips (Table 8.1), indicating that the main activity scope of villagers is the village. Secondly, within the distance range of 1–5 km, the distribution of villagers’ travel volume increases with an increase in the distance. The possible reason for this phenomenon is that within 1–5 km of the village there is usually agricultural land or natural ecological areas, as well as other villages. The demand of villagers to travel to these areas is relatively small. Generally, the distance between villages and towns is about 5 km. As towns have a higher level of service land, the demand of villagers to travel to town is higher than to other villages or agricultural land, so the travel volume is relatively high. Finally, the distribution of villagers’ travel volume decreases with the increase of distance when the distance is over 5 km, which is roughly a power-law distribution (Fig. 8.1). The power function is used to fit it; the power index is −1.347 and the goodness of fit is 0.9698. There are great differences in the average travel distance of rural residents in different regions (Figs. 8.2 and 8.3). Generally speaking, the average travel distance of rural residents in most county-level administrative regions is less than 10 km. However, the average travel distance of rural residents in some areas is relatively long. Firstly, the travel distance of rural residents in mountainous areas is longer than that in plain areas. The county-level administrative regions with longer travel distances of rural residents are mainly in the Yanshan Mountain area in the north and the Taihang Mountain area in the west. Secondly, the travel distance of rural residents in county-level administrative regions with large administrative areas is Table 8.1 Segment proportion of rural residents’ average travel distance

Travel distance (km)

Proportion (%)

0–1

75.51

1–5

3.8

5–10

6.67

10–15

3.13

15–20

1.8

20–25

1.15

25–30

0.85

30–35

0.76

35–40

0.69

40–45

0.67

45–50

0.57

>50

4.44

Travel volume

x 100,000

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

215

10 y = 7E+06x-1.347 R² = 0.9698

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

Distance (km) Fig. 8.1 Average travel distance distribution of rural residents (>1 km)

longer than that in county-level administrative regions with small administrative areas. In some county-level administrative regions with larger jurisdictions, towns are relatively sparse, and rural residents may need to travel further to towns. Thirdly, rural residents in the periphery travel longer than those in the core area of the urban agglomeration. The core area of the mega-city region has dense cities and towns, high levels of social and economic development, and relatively more places to provide services. Rural residents do not need to travel long distances frequently. To analyse the characteristics of villagers’ travel distance at different levels of settlements further, the average travel distance and its spatial distribution from villagers to towns, county seats and prefecture-level cities were extracted. On the one hand, in the distance range of 1–5 km, the distribution of villagers’ travel volume increases with the increase of distance; on the other hand, when the distance is more than 5 km, the distribution of villagers’ trip volume decreases with the increase of distance, which is roughly a power-law distribution (Fig. 8.4). The power function is used to fit it, the power index is −2.012 and the goodness of fit reaches 0.9892. Compared with the power exponent of all trips, the absolute value of the power exponent to the town is significantly larger, which indicates that it decays obviously with the distance. The service range of the town is limited, and it is obviously constrained by its spatial distance. For the average travel distance to the town (Table 8.2), the travel distance within 5 km accounts for about a quarter of the total travel distance to the town, reaching 23.35%; nearly, 60% of the travel is within 10 km, accounting for 59.07%. Rural residents’ average travel distance to towns in different areas is also different (Figs. 8.5 and 8.6). Generally speaking, the average travel distance of rural residents in most county-level administrative regions is less than 10 km. However, the average travel distance of rural residents in some areas is relatively long. The spatial distribution of regional differences is similar to the overall pattern. In the northern Yanshan

216

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Fig. 8.2 Average travel distance of rural residents in different county-level administrative units (excluding trips within 1 km)

Mountain area and the western Taihang Mountain area, the travel distance between villages and towns is longer. In addition, the average travel distance of villagers in Cangzhou, Tangshan and other coastal areas is also relatively long. The development of these areas is relatively late, and the development of a township-level urban system is relatively immature. In fact, the phenomenon of land reclamation in Hebei Province is very serious, with Cangzhou, Tangshan and other places being the main areas of land reclamation. Hebei provincial government is focusing new construction land planning indicators on coastal areas, and 80% of the provincial reclamation planning indicators will be used in the Tangshan Caofeidian district and the Cangzhou Bohai new area. These newly reclaimed areas have no historical development foundation, and the low-level urban system is weak, so it is difficult for villagers to reach nearby towns. Therefore, the travel distance between villagers and towns is generally long. The distribution of travel distance between villages and the county seat maintains the last two typical characteristics. On the one hand, within the range of 1–5 km, the distribution of villagers’ travel volume increases with the increase of distance, which may be contributed to by the villages near the county seat. On the other hand, in the distance range of more than 5 km, the distribution of villagers’ trip volume decreases with the increase of distance, which is roughly a power-law distribution (Fig. 8.7). The power function is used to fit it, the power index is −1.725, and the goodness of fit is 0.9752. Compared with the power index of all trips, the absolute

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

217

Travel volume

x 100.000

Fig. 8.3 Proportion of rural residents’ trips of less than 5 km in different county-level administrative units 20 18

y = 7E+07x-2.012 R² = 0.9892

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

0 2 4 6 8 101214161820222426283032343638404244464850

Distance (km) Fig. 8.4 Average travel distance distribution of rural residents going to towns

218 Table 8.2 Segment proportions of rural residents’ average travel distance when going to towns

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions Travel distance (km)

Proportion (%)

0–5

23.35

5–10

35.72

10–15

15.11

15–20

8.02

20–25

4.86

25–30

3.33

30–35

2.50

35–40

1.72

40–45

1.22

45–50

0.85

>50

3.33

Fig. 8.5 Average travel distance to towns of rural residents in different county-level administrative units

value of the power index to the county is larger, but it is smaller than the fitting result to the town, which shows that the travel distance from villages to the county seats decays more obviously with distance, but that the attenuation degree is less than that to the town. The service range of county seats is larger than that of townships, and the constraint of spatial distance is smaller than that for townships. According to the proportion of the average travel distance to the county (Table 8.3), the travel distance within 5 km accounts for 13.99% of the total travel distance to the county. Less than

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

219

Travel volume

x 100,000

Fig. 8.6 Proportion of rural residents’ trips to towns whose distance is less than 5 km in different county-level administrative units 10 y = 1E+07x-1.725 R² = 0.9752

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

Distance (km) Fig. 8.7 Average travel distance distribution of rural residents going to county seats

half of villagers travel within 10 km, accounting for 46.94%. More than 60% of the people travel within 15 km, accounting for 62.45%.

220 Table 8.3 Segment proportion of rural residents’ average travel distance when going to county seats

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions Travel distance (km)

Proportion (%)

0–5

13.99

5–10

32.95

10–15

15.51

15–20

7.89

20–25

4.28

25–30

2.71

30–35

2.35

35–40

2.04

40–45

1.69

45–50

1.72

>50

14.88

Rural residents’ average travel distance to the county seat in different regions is still significantly different, but the differences are relatively small (Fig. 8.8). Generally speaking, the average travel distance from rural residents to the county seat in most county-level administrative regions is less than 20 km. There are two areas with relatively long travel distances. One is Chengde area in the north, which is a mountainous area, and the area of each county is relatively large, resulting in a long travel distance for villagers to get to the county seat. Another area is the southeast of Cangzhou, Handan and other places. The counties in these areas are not large. The reason for the long travel distance of villagers to the county may be that the proportion of villagers in this area travelling to other surrounding counties is relatively high, that is, that the proportion of intercounty travel may be relatively high. The distribution characteristics of rural residents’ travel distance to prefecturelevel cities are similar to other settlements. On the one hand, within the range of 1–5 km, the distribution of villagers’ travel volume increases with the increase of distance. The reason may be that there are villages near the urban areas of prefecturelevel cities, where villagers often go to these urban areas. On the other hand, when the distance is more than 5 km, the distribution of villagers’ travel volume decreases with the increase of distance, which is roughly in the form of a power-law distribution (Fig. 8.9). The power function is used to fit it, the power index is −0.83 and the goodness of fit is 0.9635. Compared with the power exponent of all trips, the absolute value of the power exponent to the county is the smallest, which indicates that the travel distance from villagers to the prefecture-level city decreases most gently with the distance. The service range of prefecture-level cities is larger than that of county seats and towns, and the constraint degree of spatial distance is smaller than that of county seats and towns. By proportion of the average travel distance to the county (Table 8.4), less than one tenth of the total travel distance to the county is within 5 km, which is only 8.83%. Less than a quarter of the people travel within 10 km, accounting for 26.16%. About half of them travel within 20 km, accounting for 48.18%.

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

221

Travel volume

x 100,000

Fig. 8.8 Average travel distance to county seats of rural residents in different county-level administrative units 3 y = 1E+06x-0.83 R² = 0.9635

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

Distance (km) Fig. 8.9 Average travel distance distribution of rural residents going to cities

44

48

222 Table 8.4 Segment proportion of rural residents’ average travel distance when going to cities

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions Travel distance (km)

Proportion (%)

0–5

8.83

5–10

17.33

10–15

12.80

15–20

9.22

20–25

7.06

25–30

5.72

30–35

5.06

35–40

4.73

40–45

4.98

45–50

3.82

>50

20.98

Rural residents’ average travel distance in different regions to prefecture-level urban areas shows a high–low–high staggered distribution from northwest to southeast (Fig. 8.10). Generally speaking, the average travel distance to prefecture-level cities in most county-level administrative regions is within 80 km. There are two distinct characteristics in the spatial differentiation: one is the decrease from the prefecture-level city to the peripheral counties, which is obvious, because it is more convenient for the villagers near the prefecture-level city to go to the prefecture-level city. Secondly, the travel distance of villagers in the northwest and southeast counties is relatively long. These counties are on the edge of Hebei Province, and the villagers in these counties are far away from the local city or other adjacent cities. This phenomenon is related to the spatial distribution pattern of cities in the Jingjinji region. In contrast, some areas in the northeast and southwest are also at the edge of their provinces, but the average travel distance of villagers is relatively short. One important reason is that Qinhuangdao, Tangshan and other big cities lie in the northeast of Hebei Province, and the southwest along the Beijing Guangzhou line is also a dense belt of cities and towns.

8.2.2 Travel Frequency Taking the county as the basic unit, we analyse the overall travel frequency of villagers and the travel frequency to different levels of settlements (Table 8.5), and we find that the travel frequency of villagers to different levels of settlements has different characteristics. The results show that the average number of daily trips of the villagers in the Jingjinji region is 2.383, most of which are within the village. The skewness is only 0.096, which indicates that the distribution of travel frequency is close to a normal distribution, and the data are basically symmetrically distributed. The kurtosis is 1.834, which indicates that the data distribution is steeper than the standard normal

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

223

Fig. 8.10 Average travel distance to prefecture-level cities of rural residents in different county-level administrative units

distribution, indicating that the difference between regions is relatively small, and the travel frequency of villagers in each county is relatively close (Fig. 8.11). The spatial distribution characteristics of regional differences are in Fig. 8.12. The areas with the lowest travel frequency are concentrated between the two largest cities in the region, namely the Langfang area and suburban counties in the north of Tianjin. This area is adjacent to big cities, but the travel frequency of villagers is not high. The average number of trips per day is less than two. The areas with the highest travel frequency of villagers are in Handan and Xingtai in the south. This area is in the North China Plain and has a long history of agricultural development, forming the traditional farming culture and rural life culture. The travel frequency is high, and the average travel rate is more than three times a day. In the north of Chengde, the travel frequency of villagers is also relatively low. This area is in the Yanshan Mountain area, in which transport is relatively inconvenient. The objective conditions of villagers’ travel are relatively poor, and the travel frequency is also low. The average travel frequency is about twice a day. Although there are some spatial differences in different regions, on the whole, the differences are limited. That is, for most villagers, the average travel frequency is relatively similar. No matter where they are, rural residents have basic travel needs such as daily work, farming, shopping and school. These needs are affected by geographical location and transport conditions.

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8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Table 8.5 Statistical characteristics of rural residents’ travel frequency to different levels of settlements Total

To town

To local county seat

To county seats of other counties

To prefecture-level city

Average

2.383

0.329

0.322

0.110

0.166

Median

2.383

0.319

0.323

0.095

0.103

Standard deviation

0.370

0.110

0.106

0.063

0.184

Variance

0.137

0.012

0.011

0.004

0.034

Skewness

0.096

0.276

0.253

1.052

3.053

Standard deviation of deflection

0.195

0.195

0.195

0.195

0.195

Kurtosis

1.834

−0.552

0.366

1.248

11.448

Standard error of kurtosis

0.387

0.387

0.387

0.387

0.387

Min

1.085

0.078

0.076

0.018

0.017

Max

3.724

0.580

0.620

0.348

1.216

Fig. 8.11 Histogram of travel frequency distribution of rural residents in different county-level administrative units

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

225

Fig. 8.12 Travel frequency of rural residents in different county-level administrative units

For example, improvements in traffic conditions may increase the travel willingness of villagers, but these impacts may still be relatively limited. To investigate the characteristics of the urban system further, the travel frequency of villagers from different county administrative regions to towns, county seats and prefecture-level cities was extracted. The results show that the frequency of travel to central towns has obvious spatial differentiation. Unlike daily travel, going to high-grade central towns is not a daily travel purpose. Only when villagers need to get high-level services, such as buying relatively expensive goods or getting better medical treatment they are unable to get locally, do they go to high-level central towns. The average number of daily trips from villages to towns is 0.329, which means that villagers go to towns almost every three days. The skewness is 0.276, which indicates that the distribution of travel frequency to towns has a certain positive deviation compared with the standard normal distribution. The kurtosis is −0.552, which indicates that the data distribution is smoother than the standard normal distribution, indicating that there are differences between regions, and that the willingness of villagers in different counties to choose towns and townships is different (Fig. 8.13). Figure 8.14 shows the spatial distribution of the frequency of going to towns. The frequency in Beijing and around Langfang, Tangshan and other places is relatively high, mostly more than 0.1 times a day. As mentioned before, the total travel frequency of villagers in this area is not high compared with the whole area. However, the frequency of travel from this area and its surroundings to towns is higher than that of the whole area. This shows that the villagers in this area tend to get higher

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8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Fig. 8.13 Histogram of travel frequency distribution of rural residents going to towns in different county-level administrative units

levels of service more frequently, or that the service centres in this area can provide relatively better services. Compared with other areas, the towns in this area play a more important role in the urban system. In addition, villagers in Handan, Xingtai and other places in the south have a relatively high frequency of going to towns, and the frequency in many counties is again more than 0.1 times a day. Combined with the previous results, the overall trip frequency of villagers in this area is also relatively high. That is, the villagers in this area have strong mobility, and they often travel to towns. The average travel frequency of villagers to the county seat is 0.322, which means that they go to the county seat every three days on average, which is slightly lower than their frequency of going to the town. Compared with the results of national analysis using survey data in previous chapters, the frequency of going to the county seat in this area is higher. This shows that in the Jingjinji region, the willingness of villagers to go to the county seat is higher than that of the whole country, while the willingness to go to towns is lower. This result is inconsistent with the traditional perception that the frequency of village residents going to towns is higher. There are many counties in the Jingjinji region, especially in the level area of this region. The area of counties is generally small, and the density of counties is relatively high, which may be one reason for the high frequency of villagers going to the counties. The skewness is 0.253, which indicates that the distribution of travel frequency to the county seat has a certain positive deviation from the standard normal distribution.

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

227

Fig. 8.14 Travel frequency of rural residents going to towns in different county-level administrative units

The kurtosis is 0.366, which indicates that the data distribution is steeper than the standard normal distribution, but the difference is small, and it is closer to the standard normal distribution than data for other travel purposes. The average travel frequency of villagers to other county seats is 0.11, that is, they go to the county about every nine days, which is lower than the frequency of going to the town and the local county seat. Due to the administrative divisions, not all county seats are in the geographical geometric centre of the county. Therefore, some villages may be closer to the county seats of other counties, so they will also choose to purchase goods or high-level services in the nearer county seats of other counties. The skewness is 1.052, which indicates that the distribution of travel frequency to other county seats is more positive than the standard normal distribution. The kurtosis is 1.248, which indicates that the data distribution is steeper than the standard normal distribution, and that fewer villagers often go to other county seats (Figs. 8.15 and 8.16). From the perspective of spatial differentiation (Figs. 8.17 and 8.18), the frequency of rural residents in Beijing and surrounding areas such as Zhangjiakou, Langfang and Baoding travelling to the county seat is relatively high, mostly more than 0.2 times. Among them, Huairou, Yanqing, Miyun, Pinggu and other counties to the north of Beijing have the highest proportion, reaching more than 0.3 times a day, that is, villagers go to the county seat more than twice a week. It should be noted that these counties have actually changed from counties to county-level districts, but their core built-up areas are not connected with the urban area of Beijing, and they are still objectively counties. However, due to their affiliation with Beijing, the

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8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Fig. 8.15 Histogram of travel frequency distribution of rural residents going to the local county seat in different county-level administrative units

Fig. 8.16 Histogram of travel frequency distribution of rural residents going to the county seat of other counties in different county-level administrative units

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

229

Fig. 8.17 Travel frequency of rural residents going to the local county seat in different county-level administrative units

urban development levels of these counties are relatively high, which may be more attractive to villagers. Therefore, the proportion of villagers going to the county seat is relatively high. To analyse the attraction of the county seat to villagers further, we continue to investigate the travel frequency of villagers to county seats of other counties, as shown in Fig. 8.18. Generally speaking, the frequency of villagers going to other county seats is lower than that to their own local county seats, most of them are less than 0.1 times a day, and a considerable part of them are less than 0.05 times a day. The areas with high frequency of going to other county seats include Cangzhou and Tangshan along the coast, and some counties of Chengde and Zhangjiakou in the northern mountainous area. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the average travel distance of villagers in these areas to the county seat is relatively long. Villagers in these areas travel more frequently to other counties, which may be the reason for their longer average travel distance to the county seat. In addition, the frequency of villagers going to other county seats in Chengde City is relatively high. The possible reasons are as follows: first, the total travel frequency in Chengde City is relatively high, and second, the development level of Chengde City is lower than that of other prefecture-level cities, so villagers have more choices when choosing high-level service centres. The average rate of travel of villagers to the prefecture-level city is 0.166, that is, they go to the prefecture-level city about once a week, and the frequency is lower than that of towns and county seats. The median number of visits is 0.103. The skewness is 3.053, which indicates that the distribution of travel frequency to the county has a very obvious positive deviation compared with the standard normal distribution.

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8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Fig. 8.18 Travel frequency of rural residents going to the county seats of other counties in different county-level administrative units

The kurtosis is 11.448, which indicates that there is a big gap between the data distribution and the standard normal distribution, and the distribution is obviously steeper. Specifically, the frequency of most villagers going to the prefecture-level city is about 0.1, that is, about once every ten days. The average number of daily trips in a small number of counties is as high as about once a day. The counties adjacent to prefecture-level cities increase the overall average (Fig. 8.19). From the perspective of spatial differentiation (Figs. 8.20 and 8.21), the differentiation between villagers going to prefecture-level cities in different counties is higher than that to towns and county seats. The characteristics of spatial differentiation show an obvious gradual decline from centre of prefecture-level cities to the outside. For counties of prefecture-level cities (i.e. municipal districts), villagers going to prefecture-level cities is equivalent to villagers in ordinary counties going to county seats. Thus, the degree of spatial connection between the prefecture-level city and the surrounding villages is higher than that between the county seat and its surrounding villages. Beijing and Tianjin are the two largest cities in the region. The level of urbanisation in these two places is very high. The average frequency of villagers going to the urban area is more than 0.5 times a day. The possible reason is that there are a large number of commuters who go to work in urban areas every day from the rural areas of Beijing and Tianjin, which is quite different from the lifestyles of villagers in other areas. In addition to the counties with prefecture-level cities, villagers from some surrounding counties, such as Xuanhua near Zhangjiakou, Caofeidian near Tangshan, and Jingxing, Lingshou and Pingshan near Shijiazhuang, also visit prefecture-level cities more frequently. The withdrawal of cities

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

231

Fig. 8.19 Histogram of travel frequency distribution of rural residents going to prefecture-level cities in different county-level administrative units

into county-level districts is accelerating the integration of counties into the urban areas of prefecture-level cities. Compared with other counties, they are more closely connected with these cities. This feature, to some extent, reflects the potential impact of administrative divisions on villagers’ travel choices. As the third largest city in the region and the capital of Hebei Province, the attraction of Shijiazhuang to the surrounding areas is also more prominent.

8.2.3 Travel Frequency Differences Between Different Destinations To analyse the differences in the frequency of villagers going to different levels of service centres further, we also investigated the ratio of travelling to county seats or prefecture-level cities to travelling to towns. The travel frequency ratio of county seat to town in most areas is greater than 1 (Fig. 8.22). This shows that the villagers are more willing to go to the county seat than to towns. The county seat plays a more important role in the organisation of regional space than other towns. In the process of urbanisation, the attraction of towns is weakening. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the ratio in counties in Cangzhou and Hengshui in the southeast and

232 Fig. 8.20 Travel frequency of rural residents going to the prefecture-level cities of local prefectures in different county-level administrative units

Fig. 8.21 Travel frequency of rural residents going to prefecture-level cities of other prefectures in different county-level administrative units

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

233

Fig. 8.22 Travel frequency ratio of county seat to town in different county-level administrative units

Zhangjiakou in the northwest is higher. This shows that in these areas, the attraction of the county seat to the villagers is more prominent, and that the county seat has established a closer spatial connection with the surrounding villages. As for the travel frequency ratio of prefecture-level cities to towns (Fig. 8.23), there are differences in different regions. The ratio in some counties is greater than 1, while in others it is less than 1. Specifically, first of all, in counties with prefecturelevel cities, the ratio is far greater than 1, and sometimes more than 6. This shows that villagers who seek high-level services near the urban areas of prefecture-level cities mainly go to these urban areas, rather than neighbouring towns. Compared with towns, prefecture-level cities have absolute advantages in attraction. For these areas, it is difficult for towns to serve the surrounding villages. Secondly, in the counties around the city, the ratio is slightly greater than 1. This shows that the influence of prefecture-level cities has also expanded to the surrounding counties, squeezing the service role of towns. For these areas, the service function of prefecture-level cities is still stronger than that of towns. Finally, in counties far away from prefecture-level cities, the ratio is less than 1. For example, in the counties of the Yanshan Mountain area in the north, the ratio is generally less than 1, and in many of them, it is less than 0.5. This shows that in many areas where the time cost of going to the prefecture-level cities is too high, the service function of towns has a certain advantage over that of the prefecture-level cities. Compared with the county seats and prefecture-level cities, the travel frequency of villagers to towns is not high. This result is quite different from the traditional Chinese view that the township is the basic service centre in rural areas. In terms

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8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Fig. 8.23 Travel frequency ratio of prefecture-level city to town in different county-level administrative units

of the results of big data analysis, the service function of villages and towns is very weak, which may influence how villagers choose their travel destinations. However, it should be noted that this result is also related to the characteristics of the mobile phone data itself. When mobile phone data capture people’s travel chains, there is a stay threshold. For this study, a travel chain is identified only when the residence time is more than 30 min. This means that behaviours such as going to towns to buy daily necessities or to pick up children from school will not be recognised. These behaviours are difficult to identify by mobile phone signalling, but this does not mean that these travel behaviours are not important. In fact, only trips in which villagers go to another place and stay for a relatively long time, such as work and shopping, are included in the statistics. Therefore, the travel frequency of villagers to villages and towns may be underestimated, while the average travel distance of villagers may be overestimated. In addition to the differences in different regions, the differences on different distance scales are also an important manifestation of spatial differentiation. For this reason, we selected the travel distance range of 0–25 km and calculated the travel proportion of villagers choosing high-level service centres in different travel distance ranges with 5 km intervals (Fig. 8.24). According to the service ability, high-level service centres can be divided into three categories: (1) towns, that is, the built-up area of the township government (excluding the county-level government), in which the number of towns is the largest and the service ability is the lowest; (2) county seats, that is, the built-up area of the town where the county-level municipal government is located. Among the three types of centres, the number and service

8.2 Travel Distance and Frequency of Rural Residents

0-5 km

Town

County seat

5-10 km

Prefecture level city

Town

10-15 km

Town

County seat

Prefecture-level city

County seat

Prefecture-level city

County seat

Prefecture-level city

15-20 km

Town

County seat

Prefecture-level city

> 25 km

20-25 km

Town

235

Town

County seat

Prefecture-level city

Fig. 8.24 Proportion of rural residents’ travel to high-level centre settlements in different travel distance ranges

capacity of county seats are between those of towns and prefecture-level cities; (3) urban areas of cities at prefecture level and above, that is, the built-up areas where the governments of prefecture-level cities or municipalities directly under the central government are stationed. Of the three types of centres, the number of prefecture-level cities is lowest, at only 13, and the service capacity is the strongest.

236

8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

These results show that the tendency of villagers to choose high-level service centres varies with travel distance. When the distance is less than 5 km, villages and towns are the first choice for villagers. At 5–10 km, the proportion of villagers going to towns and county seats is close. When the distance is 10–15 km, the preferred destination for villagers is the county seat. When the distance is more than 15 km, the preferred destination for villagers is the prefecture-level city. This result reflects that there is a dominant critical value in the service space of towns and county seats. The critical value of towns is between 5 and 10 km, and that of county seats is about 15–20 km. Within this critical value, the county seat is attractive. Beyond this critical value, prefecture-level cities are dominant. Given this change in travel to these three grade centres with distance, the proportion of trips to towns declines with distance, from 52.65% within 5 km to 6.77% above 25 km. However, the proportion of trips to prefecture-level cities rises with distance, from 16.99% within 5 km to 59.63% above 25 km. The proportion of trips to county seats first increases with distance and then decreases, from 30.36% within 5 km to 39.55% within 5–10 km, and then 30.15% within 20–25 km. While the proportion of people going to towns is very low when they are more than 25 kms away, the proportion of people going to county seats at this distance is 33.60%, which is a major increase. Therefore, the service range of towns, county seats and prefecture-level cities increases by size.

8.3 Factors in Rural Residents’ Travel Distance 8.3.1 Impact of Regional Factors Rural residents’ travel distance is affected by many factors, including the personal attributes and the geographical factors of the region. In terms of individual attributes of residents, the current research focuses on the impact of gender, age, income and other factors. Mahapa and Mashiri (2001) believe that the social status of rural females in some developing countries is low, which limits their opportunities for long-distance travel. Studies on China also generally argue that the travel distance of females is less than that of males. For example, Yang et al. (2021) found that the travel distance of males is usually higher than that of females, and Xu and Chai (2012) found that the leisure travel range of males is greater than that of females. Nutley (2005) found that older people are often reluctant to travel long distances for physical reasons and limit their travel scope to their own villages and towns. Powe and Shaw (2004) also believe that the daily activities of older people are mainly localised activities, resulting in more limited travel distance. Huang and Wu (2015) believe that the travel range of older people is generally small, but that improvements in traffic conditions will increase their willingness to travel longer distances. Hine et al. (2012) believe that high-income people generally have longer travel distances because they generally have higher car ownership rates. Zhang and Chai (2011) found

8.3 Factors in Rural Residents’ Travel Distance

237

that the travel range of urban low-income people is significantly smaller than that of other groups. In terms of regional geographical factors, the current research focuses on the local built environment and natural factors. Previous studies have found that the travel ranges of residents in the same living space unit are relatively close (Ji & Gao, 2012), indicating that regional environmental factors have a great impact on travel distance. There are certain differences between the distances involved in different types of travel behaviour. Wang et al. (2021) found that the unplanned travel range of urban residents is greater than their regular travel range. Handy and Clifton (2001) found that in areas with high population and facility density, the travel distance of residents is often lower because the space cost of activities is compressed. Transport infrastructure conditions are an important factor affecting residents’ travel distance, but there is no consistent conclusion in the current research. Some studies have found that rural road network accessibility is an important limiting factor for residents’ travel distance (Zha et al., 2018), but others have found that villagers in villages with poor expressway accessibility go to high-grade cities and towns more frequently (Yu & Zhao, 2021). Natural factors also have a great impact on the travel distance of residents. Athanasenas (1997) believes that compared with cities and towns, residents in rural areas are more limited by factors such as terrain and weather. The current study also found that the distance of different types of travel behaviour is affected by different factors. For example, Yang and Wang (2019) believe that livelihood travel is greatly affected by the built environment, while entertainment travel is less affected. Zhao et al. (2019) found that the convenience of public transport significantly affects the shopping travel range of residents in small towns. Due to confidentiality requirements, mobile phone data are anonymous and do not contain users’ personal attribute information, so it is impossible for us to analyse the impact of personal attribute factors on rural residents’ travel distance. Therefore, we focus on geographical factors. We consider two aspects: physical geographical factors and socioeconomic factors. Physical geographical factors include the average slope and the average altitude of the terrain. Social and economic factors include the size of the administrative region, administrative level, population density, per-capita GDP, per-capita savings and the number of industrial enterprises above the designated size. Figures 8.25, 8.26, 8.27, 8.28, 8.29, 8.30 and 8.31 are scatterplots of the relationship between the average travel distance of villagers and each index. As they show, it is difficult to find an obvious relationship between a single variable and residents’ travel distance. OLS regression analysis results show that administrative area, population density and per-capita GDP are significant at the 0.1 level, indicating that these three factors may be the main factors affecting the average travel distance of villagers (Table 8.6). The coefficient of administrative area is positive, indicating that the larger the administrative area is, the greater the average travel distance of villagers is. The size of the administrative region largely determines the average distance between the village and the county seat. It is obvious that the larger the area of a countylevel administrative region, the longer the average distance between the areas in this administrative region and the county seat. One possible explanation is that the

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8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Average travel distance (km)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Average slope Fig. 8.25 Scatterplot of average travel distance of rural residents and average slope of terrain

Average travel distance (km)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Mean altitude (m) Fig. 8.26 Scatterplot of average travel distance of rural residents and mean altitude

county, as an important destination for rural residents, has a great impact on the average travel distance of villagers. In counties with large administrative areas, the distance between the village and the county is large, which leads to an increase in the average travel distance of villagers. The coefficient of population density is negative, indicating that the greater the population density is, the smaller the average travel distance of villagers is. One possible explanation is that areas with higher population density tend to have more densely populated settlements and larger villages. In such areas, villages and towns are often densely distributed, and the distance between villages and other residential

8.3 Factors in Rural Residents’ Travel Distance

239

Average travel distance (km)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Administrative area (km2) Fig. 8.27 Scatterplot of average travel distance of rural residents and administrative area

Average travel distance (km)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

500

1000

1500

2000

Population density (person/km2) Fig. 8.28 Scatterplot of average travel distance of rural residents and population density

areas is smaller, which leads to the average travel distance of villagers becoming smaller. The coefficient of per-capita GDP is positive, indicating that the higher the percapita GDP is, the greater the average travel distance of villagers is. GDP per capita reflects the level of regional economic development. One possible explanation is that in areas with higher economic development levels, social and economic activities are more frequent, villages are more closely connected with high-level centres, and the motorisation rates of rural residents are often higher, which leads to longer average travel distances for villagers.

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8 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Mega-City Regions

Average travel distance (km)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Per capita GDP (10,000 CNY) Fig. 8.29 Scatterplot of average travel distance of rural residents and per-capita GDP

Average travel distance (km)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Per-capita savings (10,000 CNY) Fig. 8.30 Scatterplot of average travel distance of rural residents and per-capita savings

8.3.2 Impact of Spatial Differences on Regional Factors The travel distance of rural residents shows significant spatial autocorrelation (Table 8.7). The Moran’s I of rural residents’ travel distance is significant at the 0.01 level, which indicates that the average travel distance of rural residents in adjacent counties is similar. Local spatial autocorrelation results show that high-high clusters of rural residents’ travel distance mainly occur in the Chengde area in the north and the Cangzhou area in the east, while low–low clusters mainly occur in the Shijiazhuang and Baoding

8.3 Factors in Rural Residents’ Travel Distance

241

Average travel distance (km)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Number of industrial enterprises above designated size Fig. 8.31 Scatterplot of average travel distance of rural residents and number of industrial enterprises above designated size

Table 8.6 Regression analysis results of influencing factors of average travel distance of rural residents Coefficient Constant Average slope Average altitude

15.13436 0.052682 −0.00142

Standard error

t Stat

P value

1.74884

8.653942

1.15E−14

0.326638

0.161285

0.872105

0.001678

−0.84507

0.399537

Administrative area

0.000826

0.000447

1.848291

0.066701

Administrative level

1.93252

1.725351

1.120074

0.264628

Population density

−0.00353

0.001954

−1.80714

0.072919

Number of industrial enterprises

−0.00233

0.002459

−0.94677

0.345409

Per-capita GDP Per-capita savings

0.327258 −0.04971

0.141054 0.069209

2.320084 −0.7182

0.021803 0.473848

Table 8.7 Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation test of rural residents’ travel distance Moran’s I

P value

Z score

0.279280

70

Age

Fig. 9.27 Average travel distance of different ages in Anping

The frequency of Anping County residents going to the county seat and towns presents a cluster distribution pattern (Fig. 9.30). Among them, the frequency of going to the county seat and the frequency of going to towns in the county seat area are very high at more than 5. It is obvious that the daily life of the residents living in the county is completed in the county seat, and there is no need to go to towns. There are two types of areas with low ratios. One is the edge of the county, far away from the county seat, and the other is the towns. Due to the restriction of spatial distance, the frequency of going to the county seat may be relatively low in marginal areas far away from it. Residents of towns and surrounding areas can also receive daily life services in towns, so the frequency of going to the county seat is relatively low. In other rural areas, as a whole, the frequency of going to the county seat is more than that of going to towns. This shows that when the cost or distance is similar, or the cost advantage of space distance to the town is not obvious, the county seat shows

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9 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Rural Counties

Fig. 9.28 Spatial distribution of average travel frequency in Anping County

a stronger attraction. Villagers are more inclined to go to the county seat to receive higher-quality and more complete products and services.

9.3.2 Travel Patterns in Longhua The travel volume of Longhua County presents a polycentric distribution pattern (Fig. 9.31). The county seat area has the highest travel intensity, with more than 500 trips per day between the county seat and the surrounding grid. In addition, there

Travel frequency (times per person per day)

9.3 Comparison of Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour

277

3.00 2.60

2.57

2.56

2.50 2.00 1.55

1.49 1.50

1.49

1.00 0.50 0.00 All rural residents

Residents living in towns Residents living in villages Male

Female

Fig. 9.29 Average travel frequency by gender in Anping County

are secondary centres with large travel volume, and the largest secondary centre is located in Guojiatun in the northwest of the county. The town is one of the most populous towns in Longhua County, and it is relatively far away from the county seat. In the spatial distribution pattern, the travel network presents a kind of hub and spoke characteristics (O’Kelly, 1998). As the centre, the county seat has the highest travel intensity, which has strong connection to other towns and surrounding rural areas, while other towns are the secondary centres in the network, having strong connections to the county seat and the surrounding rural areas. The general principle of polycentrism is usually based on the idea of reducing regional socioeconomic disparities (Carmo, 2013). However, we believe that the polycentrism of the travel network in Longhua County is naturally generated, rather than due to specific planning objectives. An important reason is that this is a typical mountainous county, in which the villages and towns are far away and separated from each other. It is very inconvenient for people to go to the county seat, so they naturally form the habit of going to the town. The travel distance of residents in Longhua County presents a dendritic distribution (Fig. 9.32). Generally speaking, the average travel distance of most grids in the whole region is relatively long. The average travel distance of quite a few areas is more than 20 km, which is significantly higher than that of plain counties, showing completely different spatial patterns. We find that the grid for long travel distance mainly presents a dendritic distribution, and that the lines in space are in the valley area in terms of natural landform, and along the main roads in terms of traffic conditions. Relatively flat terrain and good traffic conditions are important reasons for the long average travel distances in these areas. On the other hand, the average travel distance is relatively short in the peripheral grid of these dendritic distribution lines, which may be due to the relatively inconvenient transport conditions in these areas. The traffic volume between these areas and the outside world is relatively small. The range of their daily trips is relatively limited, mainly limited to a single township.

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9 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Rural Counties

Fig. 9.30 Ratio distribution of going to county seat to going to towns in Anping County

If we compare the travel distance difference between males and females, we see that males travel longer than females on the whole (Fig. 9.33). To be specific, the average travel distance of males is 21.82 km, while that of females is 20.68 km. This characteristic is completely different from Anping, where rural females travel further. We conjecture that rural females in Longhua have few opportunities for leisure and entertainment activities than those in Anping. The trips of villagers in Longhua may be mostly necessary travel, such as commuting or farming, which are closely related to their livelihood. Another important finding is that residents living in villages travel much further than those living in towns. This gap is significantly larger than the gender gap. A possible reason is that many residents living in towns

9.3 Comparison of Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour

279

Fig. 9.31 Origin–destination map of Longhua County

can meet their needs in the town without long-distance travel. However, residents living in villages are not so lucky. They may have to go to the town to buy necessities. As in Anping, older people in Longhua also travel a shorter distance in their daily life (Fig. 9.34). However, although they travel less than other age groups, their average travel distance is still 13.33 km, which is several times that in Anping. In addition, as in Anping, young people in Longhua often travel a long distance. However, the difference is that the longest travel distance in Longhua is for people aged 26–30, not people under the age of 20. We infer that this is because the youngsters in Longhua have to go further to seek job opportunities due to livelihood pressures.

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9 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Rural Counties

Fig. 9.32 Spatial distribution of average travel distance in Longhua County

The travel frequency of residents in Longhua County also presents a dendritic distribution (Fig. 9.35). That is, the frequency is higher along the river valley and traffic trunk line, but lower in other areas. On the whole, the average travel frequency of many grids in the whole region is below twice per person per day, which is lower than that of the counties in plain areas. This shows that Longhua County is a typical mountainous county, where most of the rural residents travel very infrequently. Most residents usually do not leave their villages. This is especially prominent in mountainous villages with poor transport. Areas with high travel frequency are mainly distributed in the county seat and in some towns. The average travel frequency of the county seat is often over twice per person per day, which is significantly higher

9.3 Comparison of Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour 28.00

281 26.86 26.54

Travel distance (km)

26.00 24.00 22.00

21.82 20.68

20.00 17.56

18.00

16.46 16.00 All rural residents

Residents living in towns Residents living in villages Male

Female

Fig. 9.33 Average travel distance by gender in Longhua 35.00

Travel distance (km)

30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 66-70 >70

Age

Fig. 9.34 Average travel distance of different ages in Longhua

than that in rural areas, but also lower than that in plain areas. The average travel intensity of other towns is also in this range. In addition, there are many grids along the transport lines with relatively high travel frequency that are close to the county seat and township. This shows that in mountainous counties, the quality of transport conditions may have a very obvious impact on the travel frequency of residents. Villages along the main transport lines are often closely related to the county seat and towns, while villages far away from the main transport lines are relatively isolated in spatial organisation. In Anping, however, the travel frequency difference between males and females is relatively small (Fig. 9.36). Although males travel more frequently than females, the disparity is only 0.13 times per person per day. In addition, residents living in villages travel more frequently than those living in towns. We infer that the reason for

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9 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Rural Counties

Fig. 9.35 Spatial Distribution of average travel frequency in Longhua County

this characteristic is that residents living in towns can access more resources locally. In mountainous areas, people may travel less if it is not necessary to make a living. In addition, we believe that in Longhua, people often travel relatively long distances at a single time. As a result, they may not have the time or willingness to travel many times a day. The frequency of residents going to the county seat and towns in Longhua County reduces as one moves outward from the centre (Fig. 9.37). The closer to the county seat, the higher the frequency of going to the county seat and towns. The frequency of going to the county seat is more than five times that of going to other towns in the areas close to the county seat and along several main transport lines. By contrast, the

Travel frequency (times per person per day)

9.4 Summary

283 2.00 1.80

1.78

1.74

1.64

1.61

1.60

1.48

1.43

1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 All rural residents

Residents living in towns Residents living in villages Male

Female

Fig. 9.36 Average travel frequency by gender in Longhua County

farther away from the county seat, the lower the frequency of going to the county seat and towns. For example, in some areas far away from the county seat, especially in some towns far away from the county seat, the frequency of going to the county seat is less than 0.5 times that of going to other towns and townships. In addition, some grids did not even have records of going to the county seat. Thus, in mountainous villages with inconvenient transport, the proportion of villagers going to the county seat is very low. Their daily life demand services are mainly provided by the villages or the towns. They are not willing to spend more time and money to go to the county seat. The living circle of these villagers may be relatively small. It is urgent to improve the road network and transport services to provide more convenient travel conditions for them.

9.4 Summary The main conclusions of our research in this chapter are as follows. (1) The travel volume of typical plain counties decreases from the centre to the periphery, while the travel volume of typical mountainous counties presents a multi-centre distribution pattern. (2) The travel frequency of villagers in typical plain counties presents a cluster spatial distribution, while that of residents in typical mountainous counties presents a dendritic distribution. In particular, the travel frequency is higher along the river valley and trunk line, while the frequency is lower in other areas. Natural terrain and transport construction have great influence on the spatial patterns of rural residents’ travel behaviour in mountainous areas. (3) Villagers in typical level counties are more inclined to go to the county seat to receive higher-quality products and better services, while the demand for the

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9 Rural Residents’ Travel Behaviour in Rural Counties

Fig. 9.37 Ratio distribution of going to county seat to going to towns in Longhua County

services of daily life in typical mountainous counties is mainly provided by villages or towns. Villagers in mountainous counties are not willing to spend more time and money to go to the county seat, so the villagers’ living circles may be relatively closed.

References

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References Adams, M. A., Ryan, S., Kerr, J., et al. (2009). Validation of the neighborhood environment walkability scale (NEWS) items using geographic information systems. Journal of Physical Activity and Health, 6(s1), S113–S123. Ahmad, E. (2013). The reform of the fiscal transfer system. In Taxation in modern China (pp. 239– 254). Bertaud, A., & Malpezzi, S. (1999). The spatial distribution of population in 35 world cities: The role of markets, planning and topography. University of Wisconsin. Capasso Da Silva, D., King, D. A., & Lemar, S. (2020). Accessibility in practice: 20-minute city as a sustainability planning goal. Sustainability, 12(1), 129. Carmo, R. M. (2013). Polycentrism as a multi-scalar relationship between urban and rural areas: The case of Portugal. European Planning Studies, 21(2), 149–166. Chibilev, A., Akhmetov, R. S., Petrishchev, V., et al. (2015). Cluster differentiation of municipal districts of Orenburg oblast by features of rural settlement pattern. Regional Research of Russia, 5(3), 263–269. Colantoni, A., Grigoriadis, E., Sateriano, A., et al. (2017). Back to Von Thunen: A southern European perspective on mono-centric urban growth, economic structure and non-urban land decline. International Planning Studies, 22(3), 173–188. Collia, D. V., Sharp, J., & Giesbrecht, L. (2003). The 2001 national household travel survey: A look into the travel patterns of older Americans. Journal of Safety Research, 34(4), 461–470. Daniels, R., & Mulley, C. (2012). Planning public transport networks—The neglected influence of topography. Journal of Public Transportation, 15(4), 2. Duan, H., & Zhan, J. V. (2011). Fiscal transfer and local public expenditure in China: A case study of Shanxi Province. China Review, 11(1), 57–88. Dunning, R., Calafiore, A., & Nurse, A. (2021). 20-minute neighbourhood or 15-minute city? In Town and country planning. Farrington, J., & Farrington, C. (2005). Rural accessibility, social inclusion and social justice: Towards conceptualisation. Journal of Transport Geography, 13(1), 1–12. Hannum, E., Kong, P., & Zhang, Y. (2009). Family sources of educational gender inequality in rural China: A critical assessment. International Journal of Educational Development, 29(5), 474–486. Harrison, B., & Kohler, N. (2015). Creating a 20-minute neighborhood: Assessing walkability in Redmond, Oregon. In The sustainable cities initiative report (p. 32). Kanuganti, S., Sarkar, A. K., Singh, A. P., et al. (2015). Quantification of accessibility to health facilities in rural areas. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 3(3), 311–320. Lee, R., & Baumgartner, A. (1966). The topography and insolation climate of a mountainous forest area. Forest Science, 12(3), 258–267. Lin, J.-J., Huang, Y.-C., & Ho, C.-L. (2014). School accessibility and academic achievement in a rural area of Taiwan. Children’s Geographies, 12(2), 232–248. Matthews, R., & Nee, V. (2000). Gender inequality and economic growth in rural China. Social Science Research, 29(4), 606–632. Moreno, C., Allam, Z., Chabaud, D., et al. (2021). Introducing the “15-Minute City”: Sustainability, resilience and place identity in future post-pandemic cities. Smart Cities, 4(1), 93–111. Moseley, M. J. (1979). Accessibility: The rural challenge (p. 204). Mukesh, M., & Katpatal, Y. B. (2021). Impact of the change in topography caused by road construction on the flood vulnerability of mobility on road networks in urban areas. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part a: Civil Engineering, 7(3), 05021001. Munoz, U. H., & Källestål, C. (2012). Geographical accessibility and spatial coverage modeling of the primary health care network in the Western Province of Rwanda. International Journal of Health Geographics, 11(1), 1–11. Ng, W.-S., & Acker, A. (2018). Understanding urban travel behaviour by gender for efficient and equitable transport policies. International Transport Forum Discussion Paper.

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O’Kelly, M. E. (1998). A geographer’s analysis of hub-and-spoke networks. Journal of Transport Geography, 6(3), 171–186. Salvati, L., & Carlucci, M. (2014). Distance matters: Land consumption and the mono-centric model in two southern European cities. Landscape and Urban Planning, 127, 41–51. Schuurman, N., Fiedler, R. S., Grzybowski, S. C., et al. (2006). Defining rational hospital catchments for non-urban areas based on travel-time. International Journal of Health Geographics, 5(1), 1–11. Tanser, F., Gijsbertsen, B., & Herbst, K. (2006). Modelling and understanding primary health care accessibility and utilization in rural South Africa: An exploration using a geographical information system. Social Science Medicine, 63(3), 691–705. Thouez, J.-P.M., Bodson, P., & Joseph, A. E. (1988). Some methods for measuring the geographic accessibility of medical services in rural regions. Medical Care, 26(1), 34–44. Tong, L., Liu, L., & Yu, Q. (2014). Highway construction across heavily mined ground and steep topography in southern China. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 73(1), 43–60. Wang, S. (2012). For national unity: The political logic of fiscal transfer in China. In Nationalism, democracy and national integration in China (pp. 225–250). Webster, G. R., & Leib, J. (2011). Living on the Grid: The US Rectangular Public Land Survey System and the engineering of the American Landscape (pp. 2123–2138). Springer. Weng, M., Ding, N., Li, J., et al. (2019). The 15-minute walkable neighborhoods: Measurement, social inequalities and implications for building healthy communities in urban China. Journal of Transport & Health, 13, 259–273.

Chapter 10

Build an Inclusive Transport System for Rural China

10.1 Practices and Problems with the Existing Polices 10.1.1 Planning and Construction of Rural Transport Generally speaking, China’s rural transport planning must conform to national economic and social development planning, overall land use planning, urban and rural planning, development planning of national highways, provincial highways and other modes of transport, and it must consider various factors such as nature, resources, society, economy, ecology, land use and road relations. At the functional level, roads in rural areas include secondary distribution roads and branch roads; at the technical level, rural roads mainly include Grade III and Grade IV roads, as well as other roads that do not reach the technical level of Grade IV roads. With regard to road grade and technical standards, the Technical Standard of Highway Engineering (JTG B01–2014) defines five functional levels and five technical levels of highways. Unlike the previous method of determining technical grade by transport volume, the standard emphasises the idea of selecting technical grade by transport function. It points out that before highway construction, there should be a comprehensive analysis of highway functions according to regional characteristics, transport characteristics and road network structure, and a selection of technical grades and main technical indicators according to functions combined with transport volume and terrain conditions. In 2018, according to the Measures for the Administration of Rural Highway Construction (Order No. 4 of 2018 of the Ministry of Transport, PRC), the specific division of rights and responsibilities for the planning, construction and management of rural roads is as follows: (1) Plan formulation The county road construction plan shall be formulated by the county-level transport department with the relevant departments at the same level and approved by the © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_10

287

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people’s government at the next higher level after being examined by the people’s government at the county level. Township road and village road construction planning shall be formulated by the county-level transport department to assist the people’s government at the township level and submitted to the people’s government at the county level for approval. The approved rural highway construction plan shall be reported to the competent department of transport at the next higher level of the approving authority for the record. County roads, township roads and village roads shall be determined in the plan by the people’s governments at or above the county level according to the examination and approval authority of rural highway planning, and their names and numbers shall be determined by the provincial transport departments in accordance with the relevant provisions of the state. (2) Main body of construction responsibility Before 2018, the construction of rural roads was the responsibility of local people’s governments at all levels, that is, county highways are the responsibility of countylevel people’s governments; township highways are built by the people’s government of the local township; under the guidance of the local people’s government, village roads are organised and constructed by villagers’ committees via villagers’ voluntary, democratic decision-making. After 2018, the measures clarified the tasks of county-level people’s governments as the main bodies responsible for all rural highway construction. They stipulate that the people’s governments at the county level shall implement the main responsibility of rural highway construction within their respective administrative areas, be responsible for the quality and safety of rural highway construction, implement the financial guarantee mechanism, strengthen and standardise the management of rural highway construction, strictly protect the ecological environment and support and promote the green and sustainable development of rural roads. The people’s governments at the township level are responsible for the construction and management of township roads and village roads within their respective administrative areas. Under the guidance of the people’s governments at the township level, the villagers’ committees can organise the construction of village roads according to the principle of villagers’ voluntary, democratic decision-making and “one project one discussion”. Rural highway construction projects must implement the project owner responsibility system. The project owner has the corresponding management and technical ability of the construction project. The selection of specialised institutions to perform the duties of project owners is encouraged. In addition, the Ministry of Transport is responsible for the industry management of national highway construction. The local transport departments at or above the county level are in charge of the construction and management of rural roads within their respective administrative areas according to their duties, and the transport departments at the county level are specifically responsible for guiding and supervising the construction and management of township roads and village roads.

10.1 Practices and Problems with the Existing Polices

289

(3) Fund management The measures stipulate that rural highway construction funds should be included in the financial budgets of local governments at all levels in accordance with relevant state regulations. Rural highway construction should gradually establish and improve the financing mechanism based on financial input and supplemented by multi-channel financing. The government encourages the development of rural road resources, using financial support, donations and other ways to raise funds for rural road construction. At present, in the planning of rural areas, town planning is emphasised, whilst village planning is ignored; the construction planning of one single village is conducted, whilst the system planning of the villages is disguised. In terms of transport, a large number of villages are distributed along the main transport lines, which overemphasises the influence of transport on the development of individual villages but lacks overall transport planning at the town level. Neglecting the demand for exchanges between villages in neighbouring areas has increased the transport pressure of the highways within the town.

10.1.2 Operation and Management of Rural Transport Under normal circumstances, the main sources of funds for rural road passenger transport are government direct investment, financial transfer payments, county and township grants and investment donations from enterprises and individuals. For underdeveloped rural areas, the sources of funds are far from meeting the requirements of passenger transport development, and they cannot improve the enthusiasm of transport enterprises to participate in the operation. Coupled with inadequate supervision of funds, some financial subsidies have not been used to develop passenger transport (Jing & Zhang, 2007). Because rural passenger stations are basically concentrated in the centre of towns and villages, there are few passenger stations in villages, and some beckoning stations along the way are extremely rudimentary: just a stop sign. The government has made little investment, and the transport department only subsidises the investment in rural station construction. In this way, rural residents and passenger transport operators need to bear part of the capital investment during the period of passenger transport infrastructure construction. Compared with urban residents, the cost of using road resources for rural residents is greatly increased. Zhang and Zhou (2010) evaluated the public attributes of urban public transport and rural highway passenger transport by examining four aspects of evaluation indexes: government direct investment, government indirect provision, passenger commitment and operator provision. The result shows that there is a great imbalance between urban and rural road passenger transport services and a big gap between urban and rural areas in the public service level of road passenger transport and its public attributes. With regard to the configuration of passenger vehicles, the basic models of operating vehicles on the rural passenger transport lines between county and township and between townships are medium-sized buses with more than 19 seats, which can

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meet the demand of transport volume on weekdays. Rural passenger transport lines between towns and villages and between administrative villages are restricted by the grade of rural roads, the width of roads and the geometric conditions of lines, and most of which are minibuses with less than seven seats and some vehicles operating informally, such as tricycles and motorcycles. At the same time, it is not uncommon for agricultural vehicles to carry passengers. Rural operating vehicles are purchased by operating companies or car owners, and they seldom enjoy preferential policies. Only regular rural passenger vehicles can enjoy very small operating subsidies from the government. To maintain normal operation, rural passenger transport enterprises allocate these expenses to passengers, and the fares are generally higher than the normal guidance prices set by the government (Zhang & Zhou, 2010). However, at present, there are no policy norms and regulatory constraints for vehicles operating informally. The Regulations on the Management of Road Passenger Transport and Passenger Stations give a clear definition of road passenger transport operation, which refers to the commercial activities of road passenger transport that carry passengers by buses and provide services for the public, including shuttle bus (extra bus) passenger transport, chartered passenger transport, and tourist passenger transport. However, there is a problem concerning passenger cars, and there is no mention of the common passenger transport management of tricycles, motorcycles and non-motor vehicles in rural areas. Vehicles operating informally, basically do not go through examination and approval, because they are not qualified to operate, and they are not supervised. Operators perform insufficient maintenance on vehicles; thus, the vehicles operate with low performance and substandard conditions, and there is usually a severe overload problem, which seriously affects operational safety. In recent years, the government has also tried to improve the current rural transport problems by innovating the organisation of passenger transport operation. The Notice on Accelerating the Work of Bus-Passing in Administrative Villages is clearly an attempt to optimise the organisation model of rural passenger transport operations, with specific requirements: prefecture- and county-level transport departments must innovate the operation and organisation mode of rural passenger transport and adopt the operation and organisation modes of urban bus extension, rural passenger transport operation, rural passenger transport line, regional operation, reservation response, etc. They must also solidly promote bus service in administrative villages. In accordance with the principle of convenience, stop stations should be set scientifically and reasonably within 2 km from the village centre. When setting timetables for rural passenger transport, the timetable and the price standard should be widely publicised. In principle, rural passenger transport should use passenger buses with more than seven seats, but buses with five seats can be used in areas with difficulties. The integration and development of rural passenger and freight coordination, transport and postal delivery are encouraged.

10.1 Practices and Problems with the Existing Polices

291

10.1.3 Maintenance of Rural Transport Facilities The Measures for the Administration of Rural Roads Maintenance (Order No. 22 of the Ministry of Transport, 2015) stipulates that the management of rural roads maintenance should follow the principle of focussing on counties, being responsible at different levels, involving the masses and ensuring smooth communication, and it should be carried out in accordance with relevant technical specifications and operating procedures to keep the roadbed and slope stable, to keep the surface and structures intact and to ensure that rural roads are in good technical condition. The people’s government at the county level should take the main responsibility for rural highway maintenance management, establish a rural highway management system in line with local conditions, implement rural highway maintenance institutions and personnel in counties, townships (towns) and administrative villages and improve the financial budget guarantee mechanism of maintenance management funds. The transport departments at the county level and their highway management agencies must establish and improve the rural highway maintenance mechanism, carry out and implement various maintenance and management tasks and guide the maintenance and management of township roads and village roads. The local transport authorities at or above the county level and their highway management agencies must supervise, manage and provide technical guidance for the maintenance and management of rural roads to improve the target assessment mechanism for lower-level transport authorities. In addition, the people’s governments at the county and township levels should give support and assistance to matters such as digging sand, quarrying stone and fetching earth and water for highway maintenance. They should also organise rural residents on both sides of the highway to fulfil their obligation of providing labour services for highway construction and maintenance within the scope of rural compulsory labour. The Measures for the Administration of Rural Roads Maintenance also stipulates that the principle of “government-led, diversified financing, overall arrangement, dedicated funds, strengthening supervision, performance appraisal” should be adhered to in raising and using funds for rural highway maintenance management. The main sources of rural highway maintenance and management funds are (1) financial budget funds arranged by local people’s governments at all levels, which include public finance budget funds, new income subsidy funds for the reform of refined oil consumption tax arranged at the provincial level and new income funds for the reform of refined oil consumption tax arranged by cities and counties (replacing the base and incremental part of road maintenance fees for motorcycles and tractors); (2) special funds subsidised by the central government; (3) funds raised by the villagers committee for village road maintenance. The villagers committee coordinates arrangements for special maintenance of village roads; (4) funds from enterprises, individuals and other social donations, or funds raised by other means. On the premise of respecting the wishes of donor enterprises and individuals, the donation units make the overall arrangements for rural road maintenance.

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For the management of rural highway maintenance, many scholars focus on innovating management mode, cooperating with many parties and bringing farmers and third-party private institutions into management. With the development of rural highway construction, the contradiction between maintenance demand and capacity of rural roads in China has become more and more prominent, especially after the management of maintenance (Guo et al., 2007). There is heavy construction but light maintenance; the road is walked on without maintenance; the chaotic situation after construction is serious, and the maintenance quality is not high. In particular, the maintenance system lacks vitality, and farmers lack enthusiasm for loving and protecting roads. Gou et al. (2007) suggested that, on the premise of clarifying the main body of responsibility of the people’s government at the county level, the maintenance task should be divided amongst villages, with the leadership of the township party government in overall charge, and the village cadres and village party secretaries in specific charge. The government should implement responsibilities, encourage beneficiaries of rural roads, that is, organs, units and farmers along rural roads, to participate actively in road construction and maintenance, and give financial and labour support. At the same time, they should promote the separation of highway management and maintenance and improve the marketisation of highway management. Tables 10.1 and 10.2 summarise the relevant policy and regulation documents.

10.1.4 Relevant Policy Documents See Tables 10.1 and 10.2.

10.2 New Development Concepts 10.2.1 People-Oriented Concept The development of rural transport should centre on the improvement of people’s livelihoods. Our research found that the focus of rural transport in China in the past few decades has been mainly on the improvement of infrastructure. Relatively speaking, more attention goes to facilities than services. For example, in some previous five-year plans, the key point of assessing rural transport lies in indicators such as the mileage of rural roads. Of course, for China’s rural areas in the past, making up for the lack of facilities has been key. However, when entering a new stage of development, the key to improving rural transport is to improve everyone’s happiness and gain. The improvement of people’s living standards is not only the key to the development of rural transport but also the ultimate purpose of all kinds of development

Former Ministry of Transport Former Ministry of Transport

Rural Highway Construction Plan

Administrative Programmatic Document of the Measures for the Administration of Rural Road Construction

2005

Former Ministry of Transport

2006

2003

Report of the 16th CPC National Congress

2002

(continued)

Speeding up the construction of rural highways and strengthening the management of rural highway construction

“Fix rural roads, serve urbanisation and let peasant brothers walk on asphalt and concrete roads”

Coordinating urban and rural economic and social development, including coordinating construction and planning of urban and rural infrastructure, building a sound infrastructure network system, especially mobilising and guiding various forces to focus on strengthening investment in rural roads and other infrastructure

Strengthen the investment and construction of rural roads

Notice on Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Rural Roads

2000 Former Ministry of Transport and Former State Planning Commission

Central and local governments should greatly increase investment and carry out large-scale infrastructure construction such as rural roads

Decision of the Central Committee of the CPC CPC Central Committee on Several Major Issues Concerning Agriculture and Rural Work

Related content

1998

Government sector Accelerate rural economic development and infrastructure construction

Title of regulation document

1982–1986 Five “No. 1 documents”

Year

Table 10.1 Planning and construction of rural transport

10.2 New Development Concepts 293

Title of regulation document

11th five-year plan

Central No. 1 document

Guidance of the Ministry of Transport on Rural Road Construction during the 12th five-year plan period

After the 18th CPC National Congress

National New Urbanisation Plan (2014–2020)

Year

2006

2008

2011

2013

2014

Table 10.1 (continued)

CPC Central Committee

Former Ministry of Transport

Former Ministry of Transport

CPC Central Committee

CPC Central Committee

Government sector

(continued)

Construct a comprehensive transport network supporting urban and rural integration and promote the barrier-free flow of urban and rural resources

“On the way to a well-off society, never let any place fall behind due to rural transport”

Speeding up the construction of a new socialist country puts forward new requirements for rural road transport infrastructure. Strengthen the construction of rural roads during the 12th five-year plan period and improve the capacity of construction and management

We should improve policies and measures to support the development of rural public transport, improve rural public transport services and promote the improvement of rural passenger transport network

To build a new socialist country, we should strengthen the construction of rural roads and other infrastructure and improve the production and living conditions of farmers

Related content

294 10 Build an Inclusive Transport System for Rural China

Government sector Ministry of Transport

Title of regulation document

Opinions on Promoting the Construction of “Four Good Rural Roads”

Notice of the General Office of the Ministry of Ministry of Transport Transport on Accelerating the Development of Rural Passenger Transport

Year

2015

2015

Table 10.1 (continued)

(continued)

To improve the service level of rural passenger transport further and to accelerate the equalisation of basic public services for urban and rural passenger transport, the Ministry of Transport regards “2000 new villages with bus service system in China, with the opening ratio reaching 93.2%” as one of the 10 practical things that are related to people’s livelihoods in transport in 2015. To ensure the realisation of this goal and further to accelerate the construction of rural passenger transport infrastructure, the government shall further increase the support for the development of rural passenger transport and establish a dynamic monitoring mechanism for rural passenger transport accessibility

By 2020, all townships and administrative villages in China will be equipped with hardened roads, and all maintenance funds will be included in the financial budget. All administrative villages with conditions will have access to buses, and a rural logistics network covering county, township and village will be built to achieve the goal of “building, managing, protecting and operating rural roads well”

Related content

10.2 New Development Concepts 295

Ministry of Transport

Ministry of Transport

Measures for the Management of Rural Road Maintenance

Supervision and Investigation Plan for “Four Good Rural Roads” Construction

Guiding Opinions on Steadily Promoting the Integration of Urban and Rural Transport and Improving the Level of Public Services

2016

2016

Taking towns and villages as nodes and administrative villages as outlets, forming a crisscross rural highway passenger transport network that covers the countryside and connects urban and rural areas. Local transport, supply and marketing, postal services, commerce and other departments work together to speed up the integration of rural logistics resources, to build a logistics information platform and actively to promote the construction of a three-level rural logistics service system in counties and villages

Institutional arrangements have been made for the standardisation, specialisation and mechanisation of rural road maintenance

Related content

(continued)

Ministry of Transport, National Development The development goal of urban–rural transport and Reform Commission integration is that by 2020, the urban and rural transport service system will be basically established, the urban and rural transport infrastructure network will be optimised and effectively connected, the public service level will be significantly improved and the urban and rural transport integration pattern will be basically formed

Government sector

Title of regulation document

Year

2015

Table 10.1 (continued)

296 10 Build an Inclusive Transport System for Rural China

State Council

The 13th five-year plan for the Development of Modern Integrated Transport System

Strategic Plan for Rural Vitalisation (2018–2022)

Measures for the Administration of Rural Road Construction

2018

2018

Ministry of Transport

CPC Central Committee and the State Council

Government sector

Title of regulation document

Year

2017

Table 10.1 (continued)

(continued)

Further, clarify the main body of responsibility, management system and supervision mechanism of rural roads and provide institutional guarantees for promoting the high-quality development of rural roads and allowing farmers to enjoy convenient and safe transport services

Focus on infrastructure construction in rural areas, continue to increase investment, speed up the filling of shortcomings in rural infrastructure, improve the conditions of rural transport and logistics facilities, comprehensively promote the construction of “Four Good Rural Roads” and deepen the reform of the rural highway management and maintenance system

Comprehensively strengthen the construction of rural roads and strive to reach all qualified villages with hardened roads by 2019. Strengthen the construction of external transport channels in poverty-stricken areas, promote the integration of urban and rural passenger transport, actively guide the customised shuttle bus in rural areas and encourage “urban and rural distribution of internet+”

Related content

10.2 New Development Concepts 297

Opinions of the General Office of the Ministry General Office of the Ministry of Transport of Transport on Promoting the Construction of Township Transport Service Stations and Accelerating the Improvement of Rural Logistics Network Node System

Government sector

Title of regulation document

Year

2019

Table 10.1 (continued) Take the improving and enhancing the supply of rural logistics services as the main line and improving the coverage rate and service quality of rural logistics services as the goal, adhere to the demand-oriented and problem-oriented principle, speed up the construction of rural logistics network node systems at county, township and village levels, cultivate leading backbone logistics enterprises and promote advanced operation modes and information technology. Construct a new pattern of rural logistics development with resource sharing, service on the same network, information exchange and with convenience and efficiency

Related content

298 10 Build an Inclusive Transport System for Rural China

10.2 New Development Concepts

299

Table 10.2 Passenger service in rural transport Year Title of regulation document Government sector

Related content

1998 Notice on Standardising the CPC Central Committee and Surcharges of Highway the State Council Passenger and Freight and Increasing Highway Construction Funds

For provinces that have levied road passenger transport surcharges, the collection standard can be increased by 0.01 CNY per kilometre on the current basis

2001 Outline of Development Plan for Road Transport Industry (2001–2010)

Former Ministry of Transport

Rural transport should take the realisation of “every village has a passenger bus” as the goal, guide the rational distribution of transport capacity, develop vehicles with good safety performance and reliability, adapt to rural roads and guide rural passenger transport operators to set up standardised joint-stock cooperative enterprises. It is necessary to take the county as a unit, adapt to the reduction and exemption of transport taxes and fees for rural passenger vehicles, and uniformly plan routes and station times. Guide car transport enterprises to “head down”, develop circular bus routes from cities to towns, administrative villages, and bazaars and promote the development of rural passenger transport

2003 Notice on Accelerating the Development of Rural Passenger Transport and Launching the Network Pilot Project of Rural Passenger Transport

Former Ministry of Transport

Set up a pilot network of rural passenger transport throughout the country and promote it nationwide

(continued)

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Table 10.2 (continued) Year Title of regulation document Government sector

Related content

2004 Regulation of the People’s Republic of China on Road Transport

State Council

Laws and regulations formulated to maintain the order of road transport market, ensure the safety of road transport, protect the legitimate rights and interests of all parties involved in road transport and promote the healthy development of the road transport industry

2004 Structure and Performance General Requirements for Country Bus

Former Ministry of Transport

The technical performance parameters, structure, configuration, safety and other requirements of rural highway buses are stipulated

2004 Classification and Construction Requirements for Bus Passenger Stations

Former Ministry of Transport

The division of station level, selection of station site, station scale, equipment and facilities are explained and specified in detail

2005 Provisions on the Administration of Road Passenger Transport and Passenger Stations

Former Ministry of Transport

The requirements of types and grades of rural passenger stations are specified

2014 Audit Rules for Safe Ministry of Transport Passage Conditions of Rural Passenger Transport Lines

The technical conditions, safety facilities, technical requirements of vehicles and speed limit of operation of rural road passenger transport lines are clearly defined

2016 Supervision and Ministry of Transport Investigation Plan for “Four Good Rural Roads” Construction

The task of 4000 administrative villages with newly-added buses is implemented, to achieve the goal of 100% bus passing rate in qualified townships and administrative villages by 2020 (continued)

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Table 10.2 (continued) Year Title of regulation document Government sector

Related content

2017 Notice of the State Council The State Council on Printing and Distributing the Development Plan of Modern Integrated Transport System in the 13th five-year plan (State Council [2017] No. 11)

Promote the integration of urban and rural passenger transport services, the extension of urban public transport lines to the periphery of the city and the transformation of rural passenger transport lines in areas with conditions. Encourage the development of town and village buses, promote the business mode of rural passenger transport areas, realise bus passing in all qualified villages and improve the operational safety level

2018 Guiding Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Three-Year Action on Winning the Fight against Poverty

CPC Central Committee and By 2020, all the qualified the State Council villages will be equipped with buses

2018 Notice on Accelerating the General Office of the Work of Bus-passing in Ministry of Transport Administrative Villages (General Office of Ministry of Transport [2018] No. 109

It is of great significance to improve the living conditions of farmers, enhance their sense of gain and promote the modernisation of agriculture and rural areas

(Dowrick et al., 2003; Kakwani, 1993). The ultimate goal of economic development is to put people first and to do more practical work to ensure and improve people’s livelihood (Ul Haq, 1995). Meanwhile, the inevitable demand that the fruits of development be shared by people is the only way to promote the optimisation of economic structure and the coordination of economy and social development. The development of rural transport should be based on the people-oriented concept, which is mainly embodied in the following three ways: firstly, high-quality transport services should be provided based on the needs of people. With the continuous improvement of social and economic development levels, people’s demand for transport gradually evolves from quantity to quality. In terms of passenger transport, with the continuous improvement of consumption level, people’s travel frequency increases, and people’s travel range extends. The quality of transport services should be improved to meet the growing needs of people. In terms of freight transport, with the development of productivity, the variety of transport goods is becoming increasingly diverse. Various products with high added value are becoming more popular,

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which puts forward higher requirements for the efficiency and quality of transport. Furthermore, in addition to meeting people’s growing material needs, transport development should also meet people’s spiritual needs. Efforts should be made to build a modern transport system with a more humanistic connotation. We should let people get better experience in the whole process of transport in rural areas. Secondly, an equitable and inclusive rural transport system should be constructed. Both common services and differentiated services should be promoted to meet the needs of different groups of people. Rural transport construction should pay more attention to the needs of different groups of people, such as females, children, older people and the disabled. In rural areas, the proportion of females, children, older people and other groups is higher, and their lifestyles are more diverse, which also puts forward higher demand for people-oriented transport development. We should draw on the needs and suggestions of different groups of people at all stages of planning, construction, operation and management to make rural transport more socially inclusive. Thirdly, the construction of rural transport facilities should be coordinated with the spatial distribution of people. The population distribution patterns of rural areas are different to those in urban areas. The distribution patterns of rural population in different geographical environment are also different. As a result, a development concept that is coordinated with the spatial patterns of population should be established in the construction and service of rural transport facilities. On the one hand, the layout of rural transport facilities should actively adapt to the spatial and quantitative characteristics of the rural population. On the other hand, more efficient transport facilities should be laid out in the face of the new trend of rural population migration and agglomeration. The planning and construction of transport facilities should be used to guide the further optimisation of population distribution.

10.2.2 Spatial Integration Rural transport development should be designed with an integrated spatial layout. Our research found that the layout of transport facilities is not coordinated with other facilities. On the national scale, there is a big gap between the development levels of rural transport in different regions. On the county scale, urban and rural transport development in some areas are fragmented. For example, urban public transport is not interconnected with rural public transport, or there is no public transport service in some rural areas. This means that there are still great shortcomings in the spatial integration of rural transport in China. It is necessary to abandon the isolated thinking of talking about transport and the countryside. It is urgent to pay attention to the reasonable protection and effective utilisation of space resources (Liu et al., 2019). The development of rural transport can be regarded as an important step for the coordination of spatial elements, the optimisation of spatial structure, the improvement of spatial efficiency and the progress of equal spatial rights. We should clarify the relationship between rural transport

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and other spatial elements and integrate the development of rural transport into the integrated development of space. The development of rural transport should be based on the spatial integration concept, which is mainly embodied in the following four aspects: firstly, an integrated concept of rural transport, industrial space and social space should be applied. The layout of industrial space and social space can be optimised by improving the rural road network. The spatial patterns of rural industry and rural society should be taken into consideration when improving the transport planning and construction scheme, so that a virtuous cycle of interaction between the two can be achieved. The impact of transport layout on rural industrial space and social space should be regarded as organic. Secondly, the concept of urban–rural integration should be applied. It is necessary to break the old concept of duality between urban areas and rural areas further. It is necessary to strengthen the consciousness of urban–rural integrated development and to put the concept of urban–rural integrated development into practice in the new development process of rural transport. We should attach equal importance to urban and rural areas, and we should promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas on allocation of productivity, public services and ecological protection. Through the integration of urban–rural transport development, efforts should be made to make it possible for rural residents to enjoy the modern civilisation of the city whilst conserving the beautiful natural environment of the countryside. Thirdly, the concept of integration of different levels of planning should be applied. It is necessary to grasp the key points of national spatial planning and to strengthen the connection of spatial planning on different levels. With the continuous development level of regional integration, the connections between different levels of cities and towns have become increasingly close. Full play should be given to the guiding role of higher-level planning, the connecting role of intermediate-level planning and the implementation role of rural planning. The main tasks of different levels of planning should be clarified to avoid conflicts and to realise the fine control of the whole territory space. Fourthly, the principle of adaptation to local conditions should be applied. Spatial integration does not mean spatial homogenisation. When laying out rural transport facilities, local regional characteristics should be fully considered. On the one hand, the planning and construction should conform to the requirements of landform, hydrology, soil and climate characteristics. On the other hand, they should adapt to the local social and cultural characteristics. Based on the development concept of adapting measures to local conditions, the comprehensive benefits of rural transport construction and services in a specific geographical environment will be maximised.

10.2.3 Economically Coordinated Based on the concept of coordination with economic development, the development of rural transport should promote the development of the rural economy. Our

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research found that there is a positive relationship between economic development and villagers’ travel patterns. To be specific, villagers in more developed areas tend to have more travel demands. We think that there should be more benign interaction between the economic system and the transport system. Transport development is the starting point of economic development, and this is applicable not only to urbanisation areas but also to rural areas. The development of rural transport should be able to guide the development of the rural economy and to optimise the layout of rural industries (Kilkenny, 1998a). The construction of rural transport infrastructure should be used to revitalise the existing rural resource endowment and to drive the vitalisation of rural economy (Kilkenny, 1998b). The development of rural transport should be based on the concept of coordination with economic development, which is mainly embodied in two ways: firstly, a direct rural transport economy should be developed. We should seize the opportunity for further improvement of the rural transport infrastructure to develop the rural transport economy. Through the construction of transport facilities, local rural employment will be promoted. Through the operation of transport facilities, the scale of the transport market will be expanded to generate income for local villages. Secondly, we should develop other industries that indirectly rely on the improvement of rural transport. The improvement of rural transport facilities will optimise rural locational conditions, which will promote the development of other industries in rural areas. We should make full use of rural transport facilities to promote rural tourism development, rural agricultural products sales and rural handicrafts promotions. In these ways, rural industries can gain a broader market.

10.2.4 Environmentally Friendly Based on the concept of environmental friendship, the development of rural transport should maintain a good ecological environment. Our research shows that although the living environments of rural areas have improved a lot in the past few decades, there are still shortcomings in the infrastructure of rural areas, including water supply and drainage facilities. In the past, China’s rapid development mainly focussed on the construction of rural infrastructure, but it did not pay attention to the damage to the ecological environment caused by the construction. Compared with cities, the natural ecology of the countryside is less affected by human disturbance, and its well-preserved natural ecosystem has become an important basis for biodiversity protection (Green, 1996). From the perspective of harmony between human and nature, it is particularly important to implement the concept of environmental friendship in the development of rural transport (Carey et al., 2008). So, we should maintain a good natural ecological environment in rural areas for the long term, build a solid ecological security barrier, cultivate a green and economical way of life and ensure the sustainable development of rural areas (Sutherland, 2002). The development of rural transport should be based on the concept of green ecology, which is mainly embodied in the following two ways: Firstly, the transport

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construction process should not damage the natural environment. In the process of rural transport planning and construction, it is necessary to establish the concept of ecological priority. We should resolutely avoid environmentally sensitive points and stay away from wild animal habitats to avoid adverse effects on the ecosystem and to restore the ecology that may be affected by rural transport facilities to the greatest extent possible. Besides, the transport construction itself should be integrated into the natural landscape, so that the rural transport facilities become a harmonious part of the rural landscape. Secondly, the transport operation process should not pollute the natural environment. During the operation of rural transport infrastructure, it is still necessary to pay attention to the local natural ecological environment and fully to grasp the growth and living habits of animals and plants to reduce the impact of human behaviour on the natural ecology. Besides, we should give full play to the advantages of new energy and reduce all kinds of emissions in rural transport operations to reduce the pollution of the ecological environment as much as possible.

10.2.5 Smart and Efficient Based on the concept of smartness and efficiency, the development of rural transport should improve the efficiency of operation and management. Our research found that China’s central and local governments are paying more and more attention to intelligent transformation of the transport system. This change is reflected in the extensive construction of smart cities (Batty et al., 2012; Caragliu et al., 2011). Some areas in China are also introducing information technology into rural areas, such as smart rural public transport. However, the rural transport system in most areas is still primitive and backward. It is necessary to make full use of the fast-growing new technology and new methods to improve the comprehensive benefits of rural transport and to accomplish more with less. Using the Internet, we should integrate all kinds of resources to achieve a platform-based and refined operation mode of rural transport, which could accurately and effectively meet all kinds of personalised needs with a lower cost of physical and financial resources to improve rural residents’ sense of contentment and happiness. The development of rural transport should be based on the concept of smartness and efficiency, which is mainly embodied in the following two ways: firstly, transport decisions should be intelligent. It is necessary to build a cross-industry and cross-regional coordinated monitoring system and emergency command system for transport to improve the efficiency of transport policy decisions as much as possible. Focussed on the facilitation of public travel and the efficiency improvement of transport operation and traffic safety, we should pay close attention to the whole process of rural transport services. This is necessary to improve basic capabilities of integrated applications.

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Secondly, transport facilities should be smart. It is necessary to strengthen the awareness of the intelligent construction and transformation of transport infrastructure. We should actively promote the upgrading and transformation of existing rural transport facilities, and we also should introduce all kinds of new vehicles and positioning identification detection systems to enable the intelligent operation and management functions of vehicles, which could promote an improvement in the efficiency of rural transport operations and the level of rural transport safety.

10.3 New Strategies 10.3.1 Improve the Rural Basic Road Network Comprehensively (1) Strengthen the connection between the construction of rural transport project and national spatial planning As mentioned before, China is promoting the reform of the planning system. Territorial spatial planning is replacing the original urban planning in an attempt to integrate various spatial elements (Hu & Zhou, 2018). At present, many transport facilities lack systematic planning and cannot effectively improve the access of villagers to public facilities, as our previous analysis shows. In this context, the layout of rural transport should be integrated with other spatial elements. The road network and land for transport facilities at different levels in rural areas should be systematically considered in the national spatial planning. It not only needs to be forward-looking but also needs to avoid extravagance and waste. We should take all kinds of development needs into account in the layout and control the land demand of transport facilities in various special plans. When drawing up special transport plans, it is necessary to keep in active interaction with national spatial planning and to keep consistent control and utilisation of space. Besides, the balance between rigidity and elasticity should be properly set in the planning. A professional, efficient and dynamic maintenance system should be established to ensure the sustainability and efficiency of transport planning. (2) Improve the construction standards of rural transport infrastructure Our investigation shows that the construction standard of rural roads in China is still relatively low. The quality of rural transport infrastructure is far lower than that in urban areas, which is also a common phenomenon in developing countries (Mwanaumo & Sakala, 2021; Sakala et al., 2020). It is necessary to raise the standards of rural road construction to reduce the gap between urban and rural infrastructure. To overcome the difficulties of topography, rural highway projects should be planned, designed and managed scientifically. We should not only improve the current situation of rural basic transport in the short term but also consider the construction of the rural

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road network from a historical perspective. All townships and administrative villages where conditions permit need to have hardened roads. Efforts should be made to build a basic rural transport service network with large coverage, high accessibility and wide benefits. (3) Fully combine with rural industry and implement the transport + development mode Many successful cases in China have proved that combining transport with other elements to improve rural industry, and rural tourism is a successful way to get rid of rural poverty. Rural transport should realise the integrated development of crossindustries to construct a new model of integrated development. We should accelerate the transport + development mode between rural transport and agriculture, logistics, culture, tourism and other industries. We should strengthen the guarantee and the leading role of transport and give play to the pioneering significance of transport in boosting industrial development with higher standards. We should take the rural transport + tourism mode as an important starting point to give full play to the benefits of tourism resources. The development of the transport industry will promote the development of the tourism market, which in turn will promote the operation of the transport industry. Rural transport will be built as an important driving force for the social and economic development of rural tourism destinations, making it a stable and important source of income for rural tourism.

Case: Cruise Tourism in Lishugou Village, Potou Town, Jiyuan, Henan In recent years, Potou Town, Jiyuan City has made scientific plans based on the idea of adjusting measures to local conditions. The local government has vigorously promoted poverty alleviation via tourism. In areas rich in rivers and lakes, the local government has developed water entertainment projects. In areas with superior agricultural conditions, the local government has built brand new agriculture. In areas rich in cultural resources, the local government tapped local historical and cultural resources. In areas where the CPC developed in modern times, the local government has developed red tourism. In the areas with well-preserved historical villages, the local government has focussed on the development of ancient village tourism. It has not only created a number of tourist attractions with local characteristics and local flavour, but also increased the efficiency of agriculture and farmers’ income, and even helped poor households to emerge from poverty and to embark on the road to prosperity. In 2016, Lishugou village, with its convenient transport, beautiful scenery and healthy ecological environment, based on its unique landscape and Yangshao’s cultural resources, introduced a rural tourism project in Baidi ancient city. This project has attracted an endless stream of tourists, cars, information and wealth, which has made the local people wealthy through tourism.

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Under the support and guidance of the Tourism Development Committee of Jiyuan City, the village’s rural tourism industry has become bigger and bigger, which soon stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers to emerge from poverty and to increase their income. Tourism has grown into an important industry for targeted poverty alleviation, which has brought about earth-shaking changes in Lishugou. In 2017, some villagers relied on more and more tourists to operate catering and other service industries on holidays, earning “the first bucket of gold” in addition to a working income for the first time. In 2018, the Municipal Tourism Development Committee supported the village to hold a peacock festival. The local government built the sliding rope and improved the landscape tourism toilets and other infrastructure. Local governments have also set up agricultural development companies. By the end of 2018, 16 of the 42 registered households in the village had successfully come out of poverty by relying on tourism.

Case: Six Departments Issued Several Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of Transport and Tourism In 2017, the Ministry of Transport of China, China National Tourism Administration, China National Railway Administration, Civil Aviation Administration of China, China National Railway Group Limited and China Development Bank jointly issued Several Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of Transport and Tourism (hereinafter referred to as “the opinions”) and proposed basically to build a tourism transport system with reasonable structure, perfect function, outstanding characteristics and excellent services by 2020. Based on the new demand of mass tourism for transport in China, the opinions proposed the building of a fast arrival and slow tour tourism transport network. It relied on high-speed rail, intercity rail, civil aviation, high-grade highways, etc., to build a fast arrival transport network and to improve the accessibility and convenience of tourism. It required more than one fast transport mode to 4A level scenic spots and more than two fast transport modes to 5A level scenic spots. China promoted the construction of a slow tour transport network integrating eating, toilets, housing, transport, tourism, shopping and entertainment. The opinions put forward that local governments should build tourist scenic routes according to local conditions, build bicycle lanes, pedestrian paths and other slow tour facilities according to the requirements of tourism development and create theme routes with access, recreation, fitness, education and other functions. The opinions, starting from promoting reform of the supply front, insisted on people as the centre, tourists’ demand as the guidance, adapting to new

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needs and creating new supply. In terms of increasing the supply of tourism transport, special trains for special tourism such as hotel trains were opened. To develop and utilise the resources along the highway and other resources as a whole, the opinions suggested developing tourist scenic spots and forming a wide range of influential natural scenic lines, historical cultural lines and red revolution cultural lines. The opinions also asked governments to support the development of cruise tourism, inland cruise tourism and water yacht tourism and to encourage shipping enterprises to expand cruise routes. They encouraged the strengthening of the development of air tourism, building of low-altitude tourism industrial parks, navigation tourism towns, etc., and support for the transformation of idle passenger buses to chartered ones. In terms of improving tourism and transport services, they encouraged airports, stations, wharves and other passenger transport hubs to expand tourism service functions. They encouraged expressway service areas to provide recreation, entertainment and shopping and service facilities such as post offices and camps to be built by the roadside. In terms of improving the quality of tourism and transport services, they suggested promoting the construction of passenger transport joint systems with different modes of transport, improving the service level of networking, joint travel, remote and round-trip ticket services, promoting air–rail combined transport services, improving the national car leasing network and allowing the remote rental and return of vehicles from other places. To enhance the coordination and effectiveness of the integrated development of transport and tourism further, the opinions required the transport and tourism departments of all provinces, including other provincial administrations such as autonomous regions and municipalities, to establish and improve coordination and promotion mechanisms for the integrated development of transport and tourism, establish data-sharing mechanisms for transport and tourism, and jointly carry out pilot demonstration projects. At the same time, they encouraged further broadening of investment and financing channels, the integration of tourism resources and land resources, and the integrated development of tourism transport and tourism resources.

(4) Scientifically forecast the demand of passenger and freight transport Starting from the rural social and economic development and the actual travel needs of farmers, the feasibility and necessity of each rural traffic construction project should be comprehensively considered. Before planning and construction, we should go deep into rural areas and undertake scientific planning according to the actual topography. It is necessary to use reasonable and targeted methods to forecast the short-, medium- and long-term demand of passengers and freight. It is necessary to improve the objectivity of the forecast and to reduce the influence of subjective judgments of local administrative departments and planners. At the same time, we should widely solicit the opinions of local farmers, give full play to the role of public participation,

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focus on the actual needs of rural residents, clarify the purpose of construction and make overall arrangements according to local conditions. After determining the planning and construction projects, it is necessary to arrange the construction sequence and duration of each rural transport construction project sensibly. (5) Stick to the ecological red line and the cultivated land red line In the process of rural transport infrastructure planning and construction, we should avoid the crossing the ecological red line and the cultivated land red line. The ecological red line encloses areas with important ecological functions, which must be strictly protected. It is a lifeline to protect and maintain national ecological security. Permanent basic farmland is farmland specially protected by the state to guarantee national food security. In rural transport planning and construction, we should maintain the red line firmly and strengthen the consequences of not doing so. We should strengthen the inspection of rural traffic construction and strictly punish the organisers of construction projects that do not follow the red lines.

10.3.2 Build an Integrated Urban–Rural Transport System (1) Further strengthen the implementation of urban–rural integration in planning Urban–rural integration is a topic often discussed in Chinese academic circles (Li, 2012; Qian & Wong, 2012; Yan et al., 2018; Ye & Christiansen, 2009). This discussion stems from China’s long-standing gap between urban and rural areas in almost all aspects. According to our research, there is still a large gap between urban and rural areas in transport facilities and services in China. Reducing inequality is part of the SDGs (United Nations, 2019). Based on the overall development of urban and rural areas, we should strengthen the connection between urban and rural transport infrastructure and improve the public service level of urban and rural transport. We should establish a coordination mechanism for planning convergence and realise the overall convergence with economic and social development planning, urban and rural planning and land use planning. Besides, it is necessary to strengthen the planning control to ensure the implementation of the plan. (2) Reconstruct dead-end roads that hinder the connections between urban and rural areas Dead-end roads have limited urban–rural links (Lakatos et al., 2020). China still has a large number of dead-end roads in rural areas. It is necessary to investigate the dead-end roads that are hindering the integration of urban and rural areas. We should strengthen the connection between urban roads, trunk roads, rural roads and ferry terminals so that transport links between cities, counties and villages can be improved. We should pay attention to how systematic of urban and rural road networks are, establish a reasonable road network grading structure, strengthen the construction of branch roads and attach importance to the connections between different levels

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of road networks. For intertownship roads, it is necessary to strengthen the overall coordination and eliminate all the blind spots in the urban and rural road network. (3) Improve the construction of rural passenger and freight hub systems Establishing a new rural freight system is a key measure to promote rural poverty alleviation (Sieber, 2011). We should scientifically plan and construct rural passenger and freight stations with appropriate standards and guarantee the construction land. Rural passenger transport stations should be planned, designed, constructed and delivered simultaneously with rural roads. We should strengthen the upgrading and function improvement of existing passenger stations. We should encourage the orderly connection and integration of regional bus stops and urban bus stops, promoting the opening and sharing of bus stops and road passenger transport vehicles to facilitate passengers to get off and transfer. We should improve relevant supporting policies and encourage and support the three-dimensional development and use of land for rural passenger and freight stations in accordance with the law. (4) Establish the integrated public transport services between urban and rural areas Since the travel demand in rural areas is far lower than that in urban areas, how to build an efficient rural public transport system is a long-term issue in the world (Šipuš & Abramovi´c, 2017; Stastna & Vaishar, 2017; Velaga et al., 2012a). We find that the rural public transport system in China currently has several different modes. Given that China’s public transport companies are state-owned, it is feasible to establish integrated urban–rural public transport services. On the one hand, we should improve the public transport management system and strengthen the policy support for the development of public transport in rural areas. We should encourage and support the development of a number of bus companies with higher qualifications and on a larger scale. We can also encourage urban bus companies to operate in rural areas and give these bus companies the same subsidies as urban bus companies. On the other hand, we should continue to improve the road infrastructure conditions in rural areas to improve the traffic conditions of public transport and meet the need for wide coverage of public transport in rural areas. At the same time, new information technology can be actively introduced into the operation and management of rural public transport to achieve intelligence. Through the improvement of rural public transport, the accessibility of public service facilities in rural areas can be improved. Case: Integrated Development of Urban and Rural Public Transport in Shanting District of Zaozhuang, Shandong Since the opening of the first bus line in 2012, the Shanting District of Zaozhuang has been constantly seizing the opportunity to strengthen planning guidance, increase investment and steadily promote the integration of urban and rural public transport. The construction of urban and rural public transport integration was carried out smoothly. At present, there are three urban bus lines, nine urban–rural bus lines and five intercity bus lines in the whole

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region, realising a 100% urban–rural bus access rate in villages and towns. The public transport access rate of administrative villages is 66%. More than 400,000 people have benefited. The target of 85% urban and rural public transport access in villages and towns issued by the Municipal Transport Bureau was completed in advance. First of all, Shanting adopted the way of government leading and policy support. To ensure the smooth implementation of urban and rural public transport, the local government investigated and formulated urban and rural public transport route planning (2014–2020) in 2014. The government actively strove for the introduction and implementation of a public transport priority development strategy. The opinions on promoting the integrated development of urban and rural public transport were published. Public transport development funds were incorporated into the public finance system. Therefore, the support for public transport construction was gradually increased. The government has been focussing on the construction of a large-capacity public transport, comprehensive transport hub, parking lot, terminal station, dispatching centre and other facilities, as well as vehicle renewal and facility maintenance. Since 2012, more than 10 million CNY has been invested in the construction of the passenger transfer centre. In addition, it has invested more than 30 million CNY to build 62 new buses and 230 waiting rooms, which has laid a foundation for the integration of urban and rural public transport in the whole region. Secondly, Shanting let the planning play a leading role and implemented it step by step. On the basis of a smooth road network, according to the idea of planning guidance and step-by-step implementation, the local government carefully prepared the public transport planning and scientifically formulated the objectives for each stage. The local government has promoted the integration of urban and rural public transport step by step and improved the urban public transport system. In addition, the local government has vigorously developed new energy buses and achieved the equalisation of public transport services. In 2014, the bus lines from Shanting to Dianzi and Qilihe were opened; in 2015, the bus lines from Shanting to Xuzhuang and Baodugu were opened; in 2016, the bus lines from Shanting to Jianggou, Fengmao, Shuiquan Lizhuang, Dawangzhuang, Xuzhuang and Liuquan were opened. In addition, the public transport transformation of Shanting to Zaozhuang New City, Tengzhou, and municipal medium-sized passenger transport lines were carried out successively, and the intercounty public transport lines were also opened. Finally, Shanting stressed the unification of standards and the strengthening of supervision. Combined with the local reality, a bus company in Zaozhuang was selected to operate and manage the urban and rural public transport. The company implemented a public bus, no tickets, consistent fare model. The company has also installed a 3G intelligent dispatching management system to ensure information sharing and linkage between intelligent dispatching

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management information on buses and public security, urban management and other departments to improve the service level and quality. At the same time, the local government has strengthened the supervision and assessment of standardised operation, safety management, civilised service, vehicle appearance and equipment and facilities, and it has comprehensively promoted the standardised, safe, efficient and high-quality operation of urban and rural public transport.

(5) Promote the increase of rural car ownership and car replacement We should promote the increase of rural car ownership, reduce the gap between urban and rural per-capita car ownership and improve the efficiency of rural roads. The daily travel range of rural residents can be expanded. It is meaningful to give full play to the driving role of rural transport infrastructure in rural development. The scrapping and renewal of old vehicles, such as three-wheeled vehicles, in an orderly manner should be promoted. At the same time, we can encourage the purchase of small-displacement cars and new energy vehicles and give appropriate subsidies to drive rural car consumption. We can try to eliminate the urban traffic restrictions on pickup cars to reduce the restrictions on self-driving travel for rural residents. (6) Optimise the connection between water and land transport in rural areas China has a variety of geographical environments. In some areas with dense water networks, water transport is a meaningful way of rural transport (Parikesit et al., 2003). We should speed up the construction of inland river passenger terminals, township ferries and urban and rural convenience stops, whilst there is market demand. In these ways, the connection between various types of terminal ferries and land road network can be improved. We should accelerate the standardised construction and transformation of ferries. On the one hand, the facilities, equipment and signs for ferries ought to be improved. On the other hand, the integration of construction, management and maintenance of ferries ought to be promoted. Taking account of the actual needs of the masses, construction conditions, safe operation and other factors, it is necessary to promote the construction of bridges, roads and combined ferries.

10.3.3 Promote the Informatisation of Rural Transport Operation and Management (1) Use IoT technology to realise the intelligent management of rural transport infrastructure Through various information sensing devices, IoT technology realises the connection between things, things and people and goods and networks, which is convenient for

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identification, management and control (Chavhan et al., 2019; Patel et al., 2019). IoT technology can be introduced into rural transport. To improve the operation efficiency of rural public transport, it is necessary to establish an intelligent monitoring system of public transport. Using IoT technology, we can master the information exchange between nearby facilities and vehicles and obtain conditions of all vehicles and roads to enhance the coordination between vehicles and infrastructure in rural areas and to achieve automatic management. This can not only effectively enhance the efficiency of transport operation but also effectively reduce traffic accidents and ensure the travel safety of villagers. (2) Develop e-commerce in rural areas and promote the development of rural logistics and transport E-commerce refers to business activities with information network technology as the means and commodity exchange as the centre (Laudon & Traver, 2013). E-commerce in the countryside can greatly promote the export of rural products. We can promote the construction of e-commerce platforms and establish e-commerce service stations for purchasing and selling, express tracking, order classification and order sorting for rural areas. Villagers can use e-commerce platforms to expand online sales channels of characteristic agricultural products and cultivate growth points of rural economic development. By effectively combining the leading enterprises, cooperatives and farmers, the enthusiasm of the villagers can be fully mobilised to create a new ecommerce mode of universal participation. Besides, we need to improve the county and township logistics operation systems, smooth the logistics node infrastructure network and build urban and rural storage logistics platforms. Through the interaction of urban and rural logistics, on the one hand, it is more convenient to push rural products to the market; on the other hand, it makes urban high-quality resources available in rural areas. (3) Use Internet social platforms to realise real-time sharing of rural transport information The popularity of the Internet and terminal equipment has greatly improved people’s ability to obtain and release information. Using all kinds of social media can give full play to the timeliness of information, so that villagers can get the latest information on transport planning, construction and operation quickly (Velaga et al., 2012b). With the help of the Internet, we can expand the coverage of public participation in traffic decision-making, letting villagers put forward opinions and suggestions on transport projects. Also, if road condition information and rural public transport operation information are released promptly, villagers can get real-time travel information in time. In addition, the cost of traffic management can be reduced, and the efficiency of traffic operation and management can be improved.

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(4) Provide customised rural transport services covering the whole area The implementation of communication positioning based on satellite positioning can be promoted in rural areas. For some rural areas with limited travel demand, making full use of real-time technologies to provide customised rural transport services is necessary. There is a need to develop and promote a customised public transport app that can cover the whole area, achieve flexible response to mass user demand and provide agile docking of global data, efficient scheduling of line capacity, etc. In this way, we can give full play to the maximum operation efficiency and social benefits of rural public transport.

10.3.4 Implement a Normalised Rural Infrastructure Maintenance Mechanism (1) Establish a clear responsibility for rural transport facilities maintenance Our findings in Chap. 3 show that the mismatch between the changing trend of population size and transport infrastructure is a major problem in rural China. This means that rural transport facilities in many areas may face surpluses in the future. The higher levels of government should formulate a list of power and responsibility for rural transport, strengthen overall planning and policy guidance, establish and improve rules and regulations, raise subsidy funds and carry out performance management for lower-level governments. Governments at the county level should establish and improve the responsibility system for rural highway management and maintenance, clarify the power and responsibility of relevant departments and township level people’s governments for rural highway management and maintenance and guide and supervise relevant departments to perform their duties. Besides, a multilevel road leader system should be promoted. Road leaders at all levels are responsible for local rural road management and maintenance work. The maintenance funds for rural roads and the operation funds and personnel expenses of management organisations should be included in the general public budget, and the investment in the construction of performance ability and management and maintenance should be increased. (2) Publicise the concept of road protection amongst rural residents It is necessary to strengthen publicity and guidance, make villagers aware of the importance of road protection and incorporate the requirements of road protection into rural and village regulations. Also, we can encourage the use of rewards instead of subsidies to promote the implementation of daily maintenance and emergency rescue and hand over contracts to farmers. We should encourage rural economic organisations and social forces to raise funds to participate in the management and maintenance of rural roads and to provide employment opportunities for poor households by bringing the management and maintenance of rural roads into public welfare

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posts. In accordance with the principle of voluntary and democratic decision-making, the villagers’ committee should organise the management and maintenance of village roads by means of work relief. (3) Promote the market development of rural transport facilities maintenance Taking the villagers’ satisfaction, maintenance quality and fund utilisation efficiency as the measurement standards, the market-oriented reform of rural highway maintenance should be promoted in an orderly manner. The maintenance organisation mode of reasonable division of labour between the government and the market should be gradually established. We should guide institutions that meet the necessary market attributes to transform into modern enterprises, encourage binding bidding on road construction and maintenance and support maintenance enterprises to participate in regional market competition. This should be encouraged to guide professional maintenance enterprises to increase investment and improve maintenance mechanisation level by signing long-term maintenance contracts and bidding agreements. (4) Strengthen the standardised regular assessments of the quality of rural transport facilities Rural road safety facilities should be designed, constructed and put into use at the same time as the main project, and the county government should organise relevant departments to participate in the completion acceptance of rural roads. The rural roads that have been built but without supporting safety facilities should be gradually improved. Quality assessments of rural roads should be regularly carried out. A credit evaluation mechanism should be established. We can attempt to implement the incentives for keeping promises and punishments for breaking promises and bring the credit records onto the national credit information platform. (5) Guarantee the villagers’ right to know about and supervise in the process of operation and management of transport infrastructure Public participation has become a significant concept in urban and regional planning (Innes & Booher, 2000; Lane, 2005). The concept of public participation also applies to the operation and management of rural transport infrastructure. Efforts should be made to intensify democracy, to make public affairs in rural areas more open and to promote e-government and online services. In the operation and management of rural transport facilities, we should establish a more perfect information disclosure system and strictly enforce it to ensure transparency in all aspects. Besides, dishonest behaviour in traffic construction and management should be exposed to create a good social supervision atmosphere in rural areas.

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10.3.5 Provide a Humanised High-Quality Rural Transport Service (1) Pay attention to vulnerable rural groups and implement humanised transformations of transport facilities In rural areas, we need to pay special attention to the humanised improvement of facilities. Females and older people tend to face greater challenges than others because of their limited travel ability (Hough et al., 2008; Turner & Grieco, 2000). We need to improve the travel quality of older people, females and children and to avoid unnecessary accidents. Roads in rural areas should be equipped with pavements as far as possible to provide a good walking environment and to separate people and vehicles. In addition, a barrier should be added between the pavement and the road to isolate the vehicle traffic space and the pedestrian space physically, thereby improving the safety of the pedestrian space. Disabled access should also be considered as appropriate on major roads. (2) Popularise the rural school bus service to ensure the convenience and safety of pupils Allowing rural children to go to school safely and conveniently is an important embodiment of promoting social equity (Howley et al., 2001). By expanding the coverage of rural school bus service, we can solve the problems of poor student safety in some rural areas. It is necessary to investigate the basic information of pickup and drop-off vehicles, drivers, running time, driving routes and so on in detail in rural areas and to establish files for management. In some rural areas, especially in remote mountainous areas, shuttle buses have begun to operate, but the timetable does not meet the requirements of getting to and from school, or where there are too many pupils to be carried on normal shifts. To solve this problem, special shuttle lines for rural students will be necessary, and this will require special vehicles. The transport department will need to provide the necessary assistance and coordination. In addition, we should guarantee a financial subsidy policy for rural school buses. (3) Optimise the rural bus operation plan based on villagers’ travel habits The previous chapters have shown that there are differences in the travel behaviour of different rural residents in different regions. On the one hand, natural factors such as terrain restrict villagers’ travel. On the other hand, the population composition of a region also has an impact on the travel characteristics of local villagers. To improve the utilisation efficiency of public transport in towns and villages, we should investigate the population composition of local villagers and find out their travel preferences. We should meet villagers’ immediate travel demands and focus on meeting the travel needs of concentrated residences, township enterprises, township schools and other passenger flow distribution areas. When organising rural public transport, we should break down the restrictions of administrative divisions, make connections between neighbouring towns and villages and set reasonable transfer stations on urban and rural bus lines.

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Case: In Leishan, Guizhou Province, Village Tour Makes Transport between Villages More Beneficial for the People By the end of 2017, Guizhou had taken the lead in achieving the goal of 100% asphalt or concrete roads and 100% passenger buses in 21,817 villages in western China. This is of self-evident significance for opening up the last mile of people’s travel in rural areas and boosting the decisive fight against poverty. As early as the end of 2015, Leishan County had achieved the goal of connecting every village with concrete roads. However, although the road has been built, it is still not easy for the people to use. On the one hand, people’s travel demand is growing. On the other hand, Wang Gui, the head of Leishan passenger station, found that the number of passenger buses from the county seat to the village had been reduced from more than 160 in 2015 to 123 in 2016. “People in rural areas still use the traditional way of travel, taking the shuttle bus at the nearest passenger station.” According to Wang Gui’s analysis, the county has high mountains and steep slopes, scattered villages and unstable and unbalanced transport volume. These problems lead to an unbalanced distribution of rural passenger transport lines: some lines are very crowded, and some lines are rarely used. Due to the lack of effective passenger travel data for reference, the operating company cannot flexibly adjust the routes and train numbers. There is often a phenomenon that people cannot get onto the bus during rush hours, and there is no one on the bus at other times. “This leads to high operating costs and low economic benefits of rural passenger transport. The development of rural passenger transport is very difficult.” Wang Gui said frankly. At the beginning of 2016, a project dedicated to solving the travel difficulties of rural people began. In May, Leishan County officially launched the project as a pilot county for the Village Tour platform. After a year of research and development, Village Tour platform was officially put into operation in Leishan in July 2017. “By using big data, the passenger transport enterprises can share the vehicle travel situation, travel time, empty seat rate, in vehicle and out vehicle supervision data with the supervision departments and villagers, that is, the data between vehicles and people can be interconnected, so as to realise the information matching between people and vehicles.” Luo Yongan, general manager in charge of platform R & D and operation and maintenance, said. On this Village Tour platform, the system analyses the data according to the location, route and number of passengers, arranging the corresponding passenger shuttle buses and centralised bus points in response. Villagers only need to place an order through the app on the mobile terminal, and after a background audit, they can receive a rapid and reasonable car allocation. “The whole process only takes 10 minutes at most.” Luo Yongan said.

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At present, villagers can call buses and taxis through village tour. They can also customise chartered buses and inquire about bus departure times. The most popular fixed-point bus booking function is charged at the guiding price of 0.24 CNY per person per kilometre. Villagers can also negotiate according to the actual distance.

(4) Promote the development of new energy vehicles in rural areas Since 2009, China has become the largest new vehicle market in the world (Gong et al., 2013). The Chinese government attaches great importance to new energy vehicles, and China’s new energy vehicle industry has achieved rapid development (Kong, 2016). In the promotion of new energy vehicles to rural areas, we should focus on publicising the advantages of new energy vehicles in terms of green, intelligent and safe aspects to rural residents to create a good public opinion environment for the promotion. To ensure the convenience of rural residents after purchasing new energy vehicles, we should strengthen the construction of charging stations and other related infrastructure in rural areas. To improve the enthusiasm of villagers to buy new energy vehicles, we need to provide corresponding subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles. Through the popularisation of new energy vehicles in rural areas, we can promote the reduction of rural traffic pollution and help to improve the quality of the rural ecological environment. (5) Strengthen the connection between rural public transport and public service facilities The goal of developing rural public transport is to meet the travel needs of villagers. We should continue to improve the conditions of public service facilities in rural areas, fully mobilise the enthusiasm of market resources for profit-making facilities such as shops, and carry out effective supervision and guidance at the same time. For public welfare facilities such as schools and clinics, we should expand service coverage and improve service level. Rural public transport should be combined with the needs of villagers. It is meaningful to improve the public transport coverage of township-level public service facilities and to optimise the layout of rural public transport stations combined with the location of public service facilities to meet the needs of villagers for convenient access to public service facilities.

10.3.6 Develop Modern Rural Transport Logistics (1) Strengthen the construction of express service networks in rural areas to improve the terminal transport network In the future, new township transport service stations for passenger transport and logistics services should be built, and existing stations should be upgraded. Transport enterprises should be encouraged to make full use of post offices, e-commerce

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service outlets and other facilities and resources to coordinate and organise the township transport of rural logistics services. Taking small shops, supermarkets and village post offices as carriers, enterprises can carry out daily consumer goods, agricultural materials and express delivery service places. To meet the needs of farmers’ upgraded consumption, we should improve the functions of township- and village-level logistics nodes, such as express delivery, e-commerce transaction, information query, convenient payment and so on to realise the integration of functions. (2) Encourage the use of information technology to expand the rural market The integration of logistics and information technology can improve operational efficiency and result in higher profitability (Bourlakis & Bourlakis, 2006). We should build a comprehensive information service platform of rural logistics and improve the service functions of online transactions, transport organisation, process monitoring, settlement and payment, finance and insurance and big data analysis, and we should realise the efficient integration and rational allocation of rural logistics information resources at all levels. We should also strengthen the construction of rural logistics information terminals, realise the interconnection with county-level platforms and improve the operation efficiency through the informatisation and digital management of rural logistics. (3) Improve the logistics service standards in rural areas and establish a logistics integrity system Logistics service quality is of great significance to customers (Mentzer et al., 2001). We should encourage all localities to study and formulate standards for the construction of rural logistics node facilities and enterprise operations and to create service specifications in combination with the actual local situation and clarify the specific requirements for line operation, goods handover, warehousing and distribution, safety management, information service, etc. A credit system of rural logistics market can be established. Then, the assessment management methods that link the credit assessment with project application and policy support should be explored. Through industry self-discipline, we can further standardise the operational behaviour of the main body of the rural logistics market and improve the service quality.

10.4 New Institutions 10.4.1 Legal System (1) Strengthen the scientific legislation in the field of rural transport development Rural transport development involves planning, construction, investment, operation and other stages, and each stage needs to be regulated by laws and regulations. At present, laws and regulations such as the Measures for the Administration of Rural

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Highway Construction and the Measures for the Administration of Rural Highway Maintenance have been issued. In the future, on the one hand, we should further improve the legal system in relevant fields and introduce more detailed regulations and management measures. On the other hand, the relevant provisions of rural transport should be further supplemented in the revision process of relevant laws such as highway law and road transport law. In addition, we should formulate and promulgate laws and regulations specifically for rural traffic development, based on the legislative experience of the Rural Revitalisation Promotion Law1 and other laws. In the process of legislation, we should adopt a scientific and reasonable legislative system and mechanism. To improve the legislative process further, we should carry out more extensive consultation on the legislative work, expand the legislative game and further enrich its ways and methods. The legislative work should adhere to the mass line, institutionalise and legalise the participation of the masses in legislation and reflect the interests and wills of different interest classes to the greatest extent. We should also pay attention to improving the efficiency of legislation. All this work should be normalised and standardised. In the process of legislation, the opinions of experts and scholars should be widely solicited, and the mechanism for experts and scholars to participate in legislation should be improved.

Case: Rural Revitalisation Promotion Law The implementation of the Rural Revitalisation Strategy is one of the major decisions made by the19th National Congress of the CPC and is a major historical task of building a well-off society and a modern socialist country in an all-round way. In 2018, the No. 1 central document issued the opinions on implementing the strategy of rural vitalisation and comprehensively deployed the strategy. In July 2018, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress took the lead in launching the relevant legislative procedures of the Rural Revitalisation Promotion Law. In July 2020, the draft law went to the public for comments. The draft includes 11 chapters and 76 articles, including general provisions, industrial

1

The Rural Revitalisation Promotion Law was enacted to offer statutory support for the CPC’s rural vitalisation strategy, as embodied in the Strategic Plan for Rural Vitalisation (2018–2022) and other policy documents. The law has 74 articles in 10 chapters and addresses a wide range of issues, including rural industrial development, talent support, cultural promotion, ecological conservation and urban–rural integration. The law includes few mandatory provisions backed by enforceable mechanisms, however, as evidenced by the lack of a chapter on legal responsibilities. Some scholars have questioned the need for such a policy law at all. The law does address some of the concerns arising from aggressive rural revitalisation efforts. For example, it expressly forbids local governments from merging villages or forcing rural residents to relocate against their will or in violation of legally prescribed process. It also bans local governments from requiring rural residents to give up their rights in rural land before allowing them to move to and settle in cities. The law took effect on June 1, 2021.

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development, talent support, cultural heritage, ecological protection, organisation construction, urban–rural integration, supporting measures, supervision and inspection, legal responsibility and supplementary provisions. It makes clear provisions on how to develop culture and tourism in rural vitalisation. The draft proposes that local people’s governments at or above the county level should be responsible for the overall planning, construction, management and protection of roads in urban and rural areas, as well as public infrastructure such as refuse and sewage treatment, water and gas supply, logistics, passenger transport, information, radio and television transmission, fire control, flood control and disaster reduction. Local governments should also be responsible for forming a road network connecting urban and rural areas, ensuring the energy needs of rural development such as electricity and gas, ensuring the safety of rural drinking water and meeting the needs of farmers’ production and life. It also notes that the state has gradually improved the basic public service system by integrating urban and rural areas and providing universal coverage, balanced development and inclusive sharing. The draft calls for the promotion of public education, employment services, medical care, culture, sports, pension, child rearing, transport services and other resources to rural areas. In addition, in terms of industrial development, the draft specifies that the central government supports the construction of characteristic agricultural product advantage zones, modern agricultural parks, agricultural science and technology parks, rural entrepreneurship parks, rural industrial integration development demonstration parks and rural tourism villages. Governments at all levels should support the development of characteristic agriculture, leisure agriculture, modern agricultural products processing industry, rural handicraft industry, green building materials, rural tourism, health care, rural logistics, e-commerce and other rural industries. In terms of cultural heritage, the draft proposes that governments at all levels should take measures to protect, inherit and develop agricultural cultural heritage and intangible cultural heritage. Governments at all levels should inherit and carry forward the wisdom of traditional construction and protect traditional villages and villages with ethnic characteristics. In addition, local governments should protect the rural cultural ecology, excavate the profound connotation of excellent farming culture and play an important role in rallying people’s hearts, educating the masses and promoting the folk customs. Local people’s governments at or above the county level should adhere to planning guidance and typical demonstration, and they should build agricultural culture exhibition areas and villages with cultural industry characteristics with distinctive characteristics and outstanding advantages in a planned way. The draft also encourages the development of cultural industries with rural characteristics, promotes the revitalisation of traditional crafts in rural areas, actively promotes the construction of smart radio and television villages, actively develops rural

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tourism and rural sports industries in an orderly manner and enlivens and enables the rural cultural market to prosper. The draft also proposes to encourage industrial and commercial capital to go to rural areas to develop projects linked with the interests of farmers and to encourage urban residents to go to rural tourism, leisure and holidays, health care and pension, etc. However, the draft also requires that the rural ecological environment and the legitimate rights and interests of rural collective economic organisations and their members should not be damaged. It is worth noting that in January 2020, the third session of the 13th People’s Congress of Hubei Province passed and promulgated the regulations on promoting rural vitalisation of Hubei Province, making it the first law related to rural vitalisation in China.

(2) Strengthen the seriousness of law enforcement in rural areas To improve the ability of law enforcement and case handling, we must first establish the concept of serving the people. In our work, we should put this idea into every law enforcement work and every link of law enforcement. In the process of law enforcement, we should master solid professional knowledge and excellent professional skills, take fair handling of cases as the principle, actively solve the important cases that concern the masses and enhance the sense of security and satisfaction of the masses. We should put law enforcement work under the supervision of the masses and put the results of law enforcement within the scope of public discussion. We should further establish and improve the long-term operation mechanism of law enforcement publicity and adopt the public hearing system to promote fairness and credibility. We should also improve the assessment system of law enforcement. To improve the evaluation methods further, we should put the satisfaction of people’s sense of security and the quality of law enforcement at the centre of the evaluation of public security work, strengthen the daily evaluation and dynamic evaluation and improve the evaluation standards. We should improve the mechanism of responsibility inversion and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the people. (3) Strengthen the rural residents’ awareness of traffic law It is necessary to enhance villagers’ legal knowledge, enhance legal concepts and establish correct legal views through extensive publicity and education. Through mobile phone apps, radio, television, newspapers, village slogans, etc., we should carry out extensive publicity and education of villagers on the law, strive to have a rapid and extensive influence amongst villagers and establish a public opinion for and atmosphere of abiding by the law. In addition, for areas with relatively weak awareness of the law, we can regularly carry out publicity lectures on law popularisation and use cases close to life related to villages to narrow the distance between legal workers and the masses.

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10.4.2 Economic Tools (1) Optimise the investment and financing mechanisms for rural infrastructure construction At present, rural transport investment is still an investment with low output for the input, and the investment willingness of all sectors of society is insufficient. We should make clear the public product orientation of rural infrastructure and strengthen government investment and leading responsibility. We should guide and encourage social capital to invest in rural infrastructure and improve the marketisation and specialisation of construction and management. The government makes the main investment in construction, and social capital and farmers are encouraged to participate. We can coordinate the government’s land transfer income and other funds to support the construction of rural transport infrastructure. If village leaders and government agencies collaborate and each specialises in a specific project role, rural road construction will be more efficient (Wong et al., 2013). We should establish a standardised local government debt-financing mechanism, promote the transformation of local financing platforms and market-oriented financing and allow local governments to issue general bonds to support rural road construction. Local governments should be encouraged to raise funds through such channels as financial allocation, franchise or entrusted operation and to set up government funds for rural infrastructure maintenance that are not collected from society. We should encourage areas where conditions permit to bundle rural infrastructure with industries, parks and rural tourism, and we should implement integrated development and construction to achieve mutual promotion and win–win results. Case: County-Level New Urbanisation Construction Special Enterprise Bonds In 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission launched the guidelines for issuing special enterprise bonds for new urbanisation construction in county towns (a draft for comments) and launched this new product of special enterprise bonds for urbanisation construction in county towns. The issuing body is a legal person operated by the market. The definition of this issue subject is relatively broad, and it does not limit the subject to county-level urban investment. In theory, both municipal and provincial urban investment companies can issue this special bond product. The purpose of the raised funds is to provide corporate bonds for the construction projects in county towns, including the urban areas of countylevel cities. No more than 50% of the funds from the bond can supplement working capital. The raised funds used for the construction of the project can repay bank loans that have been directly used for the construction of the project, however. Use of the funds is limited to county construction projects.

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The requirements of the project are that it should be self-operated on the market and it should produce a stable and sustainable operating cashflow. The key support areas are supporting facilities construction projects for county industrial platforms, intelligent transformation construction projects of counties, construction projects for new urbanisation and other fields for counties. Investment projects first need to meet two conditions: market-oriented independent operation projects and projects that can generate stable and sustainable cash flow. These two conditions are consistent with the issuance conditions of ordinary corporate bonds, and they do not raise the requirements for investment projects. It is rare for the issuance guidelines to specify the specific content of the projects for investment by listing and to describe suitable construction projects in detail, as is the case in other special bonds. The future operating income of the raised investment project is the main source of repayment of the special corporate bonds. If the project charging standard is set by the government department, the price department of the local government should formulate and improve the project charging price policy over time. This requirement is consistent with the requirements of the project, and the focus is on the profitability of the project. Project fees can come from concession fees confirmed by the government and confirm the charging standard, which enriches the income source of the project to a certain extent.

(2) Strengthen the whole supervision and management process for rural transport funds Another current problem is that rural transport investment is often not implemented. Many funds are not really invested in rural transport construction and operation. We should establish and improve the supervision and management system for the use of funds, review the rural highway construction and maintenance fund plan and organise regular inspections to supervise the implementation of the plan and the use of funds. The township government should make reasonable arrangements to ensure the smooth progress of rural highway construction and maintenance and implement special management of construction and maintenance funds. The units using construction and maintenance funds should establish and improve the internal supervision system for the use of funds, and it should consciously accept the supervision of higher financial departments, audit departments and other departments to ensure the safety and efficiency of funds. Through the development of rural road maintenance funds management regulations, we should further standardise the use of rural road maintenance funds. No unit or individual should be allowed to intercept, occupy, misappropriate or use maintenance funds beyond their scope, and each unit must be equipped with corresponding accounting personnel to establish and improve the financial management system and internal control system.

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(3) Continue to implement the preferential fund for villagers to buy new energy vehicles In 2009, China began to implement the policy of Cars Go to the Countryside2 to provide subsidies for rural residents to buy cars (Zheng, 2020). Car ownership by rural residents in China has continued to rise. It is necessary to continue to implement the policy of subsidies for vehicles to the countryside and constantly to optimise the subsidy structure of vehicles for the countryside in combination with the new trend of new energy vehicles and other car technology development. More subsidies should be used to support the sales of new energy vehicles with advanced comprehensive performance. Villagers should get more subsidies when they buy small trucks or small-displacement passenger cars. The tax rate for the second-hand car market should be reduced to release the consumption potential of second-hand cars and to create more market space for new car consumption. The strategy of car purchase restrictions should be optimised to avoid creating differences between urban and rural areas. For different regions, it is necessary to form differentiated management according to local conditions and to lower the threshold for car purchases in rural areas.

10.4.3 Management Reforms (1) Strengthen organisational leadership The competent departments at all levels should attach great importance to rural transport development and take it as a major project to guarantee and improve people’s livelihoods. It is necessary to improve the organisation and leadership system and to consolidate work responsibilities at all levels. We should vigorously carry forward the work style of seeking truth and pragmatism, adhere to the principle of attaching importance to reality and actual results and firmly guard against formalism and bureaucracy. We should focus on innovating ways and methods and solving outstanding problems. The higher authorities should urge and guide the lower authorities to strive actively for policy support from local governments, promote the establishment of unified government leadership and timely study and solve practical problems in planning, land use, taxation, investment and financing and financial subsidies.

2

From March 1 to December 31, 2009, the Chinese government gave a one-time financial subsidy to villagers who bought minibuses with a displacement of 1.3 L or less and scrapped three-wheeled vehicles or low-speed trucks for light trucks. At the beginning of 2010, the implementation of the policy was extended for one year to December 31, 2010. According to the Chinese government, this policy is not only necessary to achieve the goal of benefiting and strengthening agriculture but also an important measure to stimulate consumption and production.

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(2) Strengthen the implementation of planning and construction projects We should adhere to the principle of intensive and economical land use, scientifically determine the construction scale of rural roads, arrange land use plans sensibly and strictly examine and approve the scale of land use. For the approved planning and construction projects, it is necessary to revise the schedule, clarify the responsibilities and strengthen the implementation. Government departments should sum up the past good experience and good practices, and they should efficiently and methodically do a good job of land acquisition, relocation and other key and difficult work to ensure that rural transport planning and construction projects can be steadily promoted according to the planning schedule. (3) Improve the level of cross-department collaboration In rural transport planning, construction and operation management, government departments need to establish collaborative links through mutual learning and communication, resource sharing and support to improve the governance ability of cross-department cooperation and integration. In the process of planning examination and approval, we should carry out cross-department cooperation to realise the integration of administrative examination and approval. In operation management, a long-term mechanism of multi-department linkage and joint law enforcement should be established. The government should come forward and organise relevant functional departments such as traffic police, safety supervision, environmental protection and urban construction to normalise the joint law enforcement. (4) Set up professional management team It is necessary to establish a professional team responsible for the planning, construction and operational management of rural transport. To select and match talents, we need to adhere to the combination of developing strengths and avoiding weaknesses and learning from each other. We should not only pay attention to selection and matching according to the work requirements but also pay attention to combining the characteristics of talents and giving full play to their professional expertise. We should try to match ability and quality with local requirements. We should adhere to the principle of giving priority to cultivating talents supplemented by the timely introduction of mature talents. On the basis of the original effective forms of personnel training, we should constantly improve training methods to enhance the comprehensive quality of cadres. We should establish an internal competition mechanism, and we should create an atmosphere of justice, fairness, openness, due diligence and adhere to the correct guidance of selecting and employing people. We should fully respect the opinions of young talents and encourage their enthusiasm and initiative in participating in rural transport.

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10.5 Key Actions in the Coming Years The cycle of China’s national development plan is usually five years. At present, China is carrying out the 14th five-year plan. It runs from 2021 to 2025. This plan period is the first five years of China’s new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. Another important time node in China’s planning is 2035. This goal is to achieve socialist modernisation in China by that date. In fact, the time limit for many local master plans is also set as 2035, such as the master plans of Beijing or Shanghai. According to the 14th five-year plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of LongTerm Objectives for 2035, the main objectives in the coming few years include new achievements in economic development, new steps in reform and opening up, a new improvement in the level of social civilisation, new progress in the construction of an ecological civilisation, a new level of improved livelihood and well-being for the people and an improvement in the efficiency of national governance. In this part, we discuss what actions are necessary in the next few years to implement the development concepts we put forward and to implement the strategies and institutions above.

10.5.1 Construct Transport Facilities to Fill in the Blanks To fill the gaps in the rural transport infrastructure, the following eight projects should be included: the construction of hardened rural highways in mountainous areas, the densification of the rural highway network in densely populated areas, the construction of rural transport and tourism linkage projects, the construction of wharfs and bridges in rural areas, the construction of hardened car parks in rural areas, the construction of charging equipment in rural areas, the construction of village pavements and the construction of rural bus stops.

10.5.2 Upgrade Low-Standard and Poor-Quality Rural Roads To solve the problems of low-standard and poor-quality roads in some rural areas, upgrading projects need to be steadily promoted. All rural gravel roads need to be transformed into hardened roads, and the goal is to provide administrative villages with 100% access to hardened roads. To ensure the condition of two vehicles being able to pass on all trunk roads, it is necessary to widen some roads. Additional roadsupporting facilities such as hard shoulders, traffic signs and guardrails need to be built, and the drainage facilities of roads in rural areas need to be improved.

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10.5.3 Establish a Bus Network to Serve Urban and Rural Areas Effectively To solve the problems of low levels of public transport service, incomplete coverage and unlicenced operators in rural areas, efforts should be made to build a public transport network that can effectively serve urban and rural areas. In areas with high levels of urban–rural integration development, priority should be given to the integration of urban and rural public transport companies to extend urban public transport services to all rural areas. In other areas, we should give full play to the main role of the market, encourage contracted operation in rural areas and provide subsidies and unified management by the government. In areas with sparse population distributions, we should actively introduce modern information technology and develop customised public transport services.

10.5.4 Build a Set of Intelligent Rural Transport Management Platforms To solve the low efficiency of transport operation and management in rural areas, we should make full use of new technologies to build a smart rural traffic management platform. It is necessary to integrate rural transport operation management and other rural daily life services into a unified integrated smart rural platform. The construction of software and hardware should be combined. On the one hand, it is necessary to ensure the coverage of hardware facilities; on the other hand, it is necessary constantly to upgrade software system services. The platform needs to provide corresponding terminal entrance for management institutions, township enterprises and ordinary villagers to meet the actual needs of different user groups.

10.5.5 Form a Maintenance Mechanism for Rural Transport Facilities To solve the problem that the transport development in rural areas focusses more on construction than maintenance, an effective maintenance mechanism for rural transport facilities should be set up as soon as possible. The management and maintenance of rural roads can be regarded as rural jobs that can provide local employment opportunities for villagers. We can give full play to the main role of the market, and we can bundle road construction and maintenance in pilot projects to avoid blind and inefficient investment in construction. Government finance can provide special funds for the maintenance of rural road facilities to ensure sufficient funds for maintenance. We should strengthen the assessment of the maintenance level of rural roads, and we should effectively punish managers who do not perform the necessary maintenance work.

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Chapter 11

Conclusions

11.1 Main Findings and Contributions to the Existing International Literature (1) The rural population is decreasing, but the expenditure levels and travel demands of rural residents are increasing Although the total rural population in China is very large, it shows a continuous downward trend in both quantity and proportion. The decline of rural population size is affected by the decline of natural population growth rate and the development of urbanisation. The change of rural population size shows certain differences in regional development stage. In regions with relatively low development levels that are in rapid urbanisation stages, the decline of the rural population is particularly rapid. At the same time, with the rapid development of China’s rural industry, the income and expenditure levels of villagers are constantly improving. Rural residents can spend more on transport than in the past, especially in the eastern coastal areas and some other densely populated areas. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the trend of the decline in the rural population and the increase in rural per-capita expenditure at the same time. We should dialectically treat the change of travel demand in rural areas and provide corresponding rural transport services. With the improvement of urbanisation level, rural population loss is a worldwide phenomenon. Even in developed countries like the USA, outmigration of the rural population still exists (Cromartie, 2017; McGranahan et al., 2011). As a country still in the stage of rapid development, the outmigration of rural population can provide substantial labour forces to cities (Rodgers & Rodgers, 1997). A widely accepted view is that counter-urbanisation will occur in the later stages of urbanisation (Lewis et al., 1991; Sarker et al., 2018; Tammaru, 2003). Our study found that a small number of areas in China have seen a rise in the rural population, such as Shanghai and Tibet. The increase in Shanghai is very likely to be the result of urban spillover from the mega-city instead of the actual growth of the local rural population, which is also found in some western cases (Amcoff, 2006). Another factor affecting © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_11

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the changing trend of rural population among regions is the difference in fertility policy. As we all know, China has implemented a one-child policy in the past to limit the excessive population growth (Feng et al., 2016). However, this policy is more stringent in Han areas than in ethnic minority areas. Some areas with a large number of ethnic minorities, such as Xinjiang and Tibet, have had preferential policies (Sautman, 1998). For instance, ethnic minorities can legally have more children, and their children will also get extra points in the college entrance examination. The rural population of ethnic minorities has actually increased faster, which is different from other areas in China. In addition, the outflow of such people is limited. These areas may generate additional traffic demand in the future, which needs to be addressed. The change in travel demand will be driven by population growth (Metz, 2012, 2016). The decrease in the rural population usually leads to a general reduction in future passenger transport demand (Mehlin et al., 2011), which is easy to understand. But the key is that the travel demand of each individual may increase, which creates more uncertainty when evaluating future travel demand. In the last century, the American dream of living in a suburban single-family house and owning private cars has led to severe traffic congestion (Kitamura, 2009). Due to its higher population density, China may not be able to develop using the model of the USA, but a similar trend is possible. The expenditure structure of rural residents in China is constantly changing, as is happening in many other countries in the world (D’Haese & Van Huylenbroeck, 2005; Manza & Garba, 2019; Pani et al., 2019). Rural residents are increasingly willing to spend more money on travel. We believe that to cope with this change in China, the focus in the future should be on the improvement of traffic service quality, not just the expansion of the road network. (2) A rural population ageing and family miniaturisation trend is obvious, leading to the growth of personalised travel demand The structure of China’s rural population is also changing, and the two most prominent features are the ageing of rural population and the miniaturisation of rural families, with this trend persisting in most parts of the country. The ageing of the rural population means a decline in commuting and farming travel demand and an increase in personalised travel demand. The development of family miniaturisation is also promoting the diversification of rural residents’ travel destinations. In addition, in some areas, there are significant changes such as an increase in the proportion of rural females and highly educated people, which also have different effects on the development of transport. These demographic changes have changed the traditional travel rules for rural residents and put forward more personalised and diversified requirements for rural transport services. Rural ageing has become an international challenge (Burholt & Dobbs, 2012). This change in age structure will cause diverse changes in rural areas (Skinner & Winterton, 2017). Like the USA, China’s rural ageing is related to two factors, natural population change and migration (Glasgow & Brown, 2012). However, the difference is that the rural demographic change in the USA includes both the outmigration of young people and the inmigration of older people. China’s current rural ageing is mainly coming from the decline in the birth rate and the outmigration of rural young

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people to cities. Older people in rural areas are often vulnerable groups (Joseph & Cloutier-Fisher, 2004). Rural older people in China usually do not include urban residents who pursue pastoral life, but simply old farmers. As we have found, rural families are also becoming smaller, and there are no more family members to take care of rural older people. This means that they are a vulnerable group worthy of attention. Ageing will affect the overall characteristics of rural residents’ travel. Research in the Netherlands found that average travel distance does not reduce as people get older (Van den Berg et al., 2011). The travel distance of many western older people has not decreased significantly, which may be due to the rich variety of activities for them. However, according to our findings using big data, the travel distance of older people in rural China is significantly lower than that of the young. Older people are limited in travel ability. Generally speaking, older people prefer to use public transport, including taxis and buses (Szeto et al., 2017). Older people living in rural areas may become disadvantaged in reaching facilities simply because of where they live (O’Shea, 2016). The increase in car ownership will promote the travel intentions of older people (Yukubousky & Politano, 1974). At present, many of the older generation of rural Chinese cannot drive or do not own their own cars. With the increase in car ownership in rural China, the travel characteristics of older people need to be tested further. In addition, providing targeted public transport services is also necessary to adapt to rural ageing in China. (3) The scale of the rural road network is continuing to grow, but there is a mismatch between the scale of construction and the population distribution China has been continuing to strengthen the construction of road network in rural areas, and the total amount of road mileage in rural areas is rising. At the same time, the infrastructure of rural transport in China remains weak, and there are still shortcomings in some areas. The scale of rural transport infrastructure construction is greatly affected by the enthusiasm of policymakers and local governments. The investment difference is obvious, but it does not match the patterns of population distribution and actual demand. In some sparsely populated areas, there may be a surplus of rural roads. In addition to the unreasonable characteristics of the scale of rural road network, there are still problems of uneven quality for rural roads in China. The conditions of rural roads in some areas are poor, and there is a lack of effective maintenance. Rural public transport service is also a shortcoming. In many areas, there are roads but no services, which cannot really meet the travel demand of rural residents. We should gradually change the extensive development of rural transport and pay more attention to the quality of rural transport service. Regional disparity and regional mismatch are often concerns of geographical and regional research (Boeri & Scarpetta, 1996; Theys et al., 2019). The mismatch between supply and demand is the main factor in the low efficiency of transport infrastructure. This kind of regional can be attributed to the programs of public investment and regulatory and institutional mechanisms that have actively favoured overcapacity (Albalate et al., 2015). Government departments are willing to believe that transport infrastructure investment can improve the regional economy (Chen & Vickerman,

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2017). China’s local governments usually pay attention to rural infrastructure because of a consistent and long-term pattern of centralisation based on satisfying political and administrative rationales. They seldom consider whether they can really improve the mobility and accessibility of rural residents. The excess and inefficient transport facilities in some areas bring pressure for maintenance. The construction of transport infrastructure in western countries was early, and the maintenance problem has been an important topic for a long time (Jaarsma & Van Dijk, 2002; Kalb, 2014). Poorly maintained roads can cause many negative external effects, including constraining mobility, raising vehicle operating costs, increasing accident rates and aggravating isolation, poverty, poor health and illiteracy in rural communities (Burningham and Donnges et al., 2007; Stankevich, 2005). Unlike some western developed countries, many transport infrastructures in China have been newly built in the last ten years and are relatively new. In addition, due to the rapid growth of China’s economy, most of these new transport facilities are still in good condition. The negative effects of excess traffic investment have not yet emerged. However, we find that the risk of scale decline of China’s rural economy and unbalanced rural transport construction exist at the same time. We believe that with the slowdown of economic growth and the reduction of the rural population in the future, these large-scale infrastructure projects will face great maintenance pressure. Local governments need to respond in advance. (4) There are multi-scale imbalances in the level of rural accessibility, as regional differences and local internal differences exist at the same time The level of accessibility in rural areas of China is not balanced, which is reflected in the differences between regions and within regions. From the perspective of interregional differences, the accessibility level of the western region is poor. From the perspective of population coverage, the accessibility level of some areas in the central and eastern regions also needs to be improved. From the perspective of intraregional differences, even in the eastern coastal areas with higher levels of development, there are rural accessibility problems in some mountainous and hilly areas. In addition, the current investment distribution is not adapted to the distribution of rural accessibility level and has not adjusted measures to local conditions to make up for the shortcomings, which may further enlarge the multi-scale imbalance of rural accessibility level to some extent. In the future, rural transport investment should be carried out prudently, and the investment should take place in rural areas with real objective needs. There are at least two reasons for the low accessibility in rural areas: one is the lack of infrastructure, and the other is a lack of transport services. Our analysis mainly focuses on the transport infrastructure. There is a multilevel inequity in rural road accessibility in China, which is also found in other developing countries (Ahmed & Eklund, 2019; Wolny et al., 2019). Specific reasons may vary from country to country, but a common phenomenon is a lack of attention to some remote areas. Actually, a lack of public transport is also a key reason for poor rural accessibility (Nutley, 2003). Our investigation shows that rural public transport services in China are often

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informal. However, many local governments are making efforts to integrate urban transport services with those of rural areas. To improve rural accessibility, road construction alone is not enough. However, building multimodal mobility hubs can be an effective solution (Frank et al., 2021). In addition to transport construction itself, multi-level and multi-sector governance mechanisms are also significant to the improvement (Vitale Brovarone & Cotella, 2020). We consider that this point is very important for rural China. According to our analysis, the poor accessibility to public facilities in some mountainous places is due to a lack of public facilities instead of a lack of transport infrastructure. This requires closer cooperation between the transport department and education departments, sports departments and medical departments at all levels. (5) The internal connection of the rural settlement system is vertical, and the service function of the county is strengthened The basic spatial connection of rural areas in China is county seat–town–village. The close connection between villages and towns is still a universal law in China. However, the connection between villages and county seats is stronger than that between villages and towns in the villages adjacent to county seats. Agricultural production and material supply are core factors to maintain the traditional village– town contact, but the proportion of medical activities, leisure and entertainment activities, family visits and other activities between the village and county is higher, especially for the residents living in the eastern developed areas or villages closer to the county seat. Some service functions of the county seat are squeezing the space of town. Part of the basic public service functions of the town level should be optimised selectively, and the investment in and layout of rural transport should be carefully considered. At the same time, we should face up to the current trend of rural motorisation and vertical connection of the settlement system, and we should systematically consider the layout of infrastructure and public service facilities within the county. The hierarchy pattern of cities and towns is an ancient topic, which can be traced back to central place theory (Berry & Garrison, 1958). An important part of central place theory is that settlements have multiple levels (Getis & Getis, 1966). This hierarchical system is assumed to be rigorous. This theory is usually used in the analysis of city systems (Hsu, 2012). In rural areas, similar hierarchical patterns can also be found (Plattner, 1975; Wang, 1999; Wanmali & Islam, 1995). A common situation is that residents go to low-level centres to fulfil daily needs, while they go to higher-level centres to buy more expensive things. In recent decades, some scholars have pointed out that the flow between cities is also an important way to understand the hierarchy of cities (Taylor et al., 2010). Our research actually focuses on the flows between different settlements in rural areas. What we found is that the hierarchy settlement system in rural China is weakening in some regions. Many villagers are more willing to go directly to the county seat to buy what they need. In this context, the urban–rural transport integration strategy within a larger geographical scope deserves to be reconsidered.

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(6) Rural residents’ travel patterns are affected by both socioeconomic attributes and the natural geographical environment Rural residents’ travel patterns vary among people with different socioeconomic attributes, and different geographical backgrounds. In terms of socioeconomic attributes, villagers’ age, gender, education level, family structure, income level, occupation and so on all have different degrees of influence on their travel frequency, travel destination choice, and travel time distribution. In terms of physical geographical environment, there are significant differences in the spatial distribution characteristics of residents’ travel between plains and hilly areas. Villagers’ travel in level areas tends to be more networked, while residents in mountainous areas tend to follow a more multicore hub-and-spoke development due to terrain factors. In the process of rural transport development, we should fully investigate the socioeconomic attributes of people and the local physical geographical environment, and we should provide more suitable transport services to meet the needs of people. At present, the most research on travel behaviour is about the influence of personal attributes such as age and gender (Basari´c et al., 2016; Collins & Tisdell, 2002; Figueroa et al., 2014; Jönsson & Devonish, 2008; Klein et al., 2018; McDonald, 2006). Such discussions have lasted for decades, and there may be different conclusions in different regions. Each story may be related to a specific geographical background. As discussed previously, some of our research conclusions are similar to those of studies in western countries, and some are different. A major feature of China’s rural areas is the change in the proportion of the population, especially older people and females. We believe that what China needs to do now is to provide more humanised transport services for rural residents. Although there are few studies on the impact of terrain on travel patterns, this effect is obvious and it is visible even in some archaeological studies (Sparacello et al., 2014). Residents have different travel preferences in regions of different terrain. For example, residents in mountainous areas may be more reluctant to drive by themselves (Song et al., 2017). In addition, mountainous areas often impose longer travel distances on residents (Lundmark, 2006). We also found this pattern in our case study. Actually, regional factors such as terrain and administrative area size may have a greater impact on the travel characteristics of rural residents than individual factors such as age and gender. In our findings, the travel behaviour differences of different groups in the same region are less than those between different regions. This may lead to a new discussion about whether we need to force similar travel patterns on people in different regions to achieve some equality. We believe that both horizontal and vertical equity should both be our future goal (Lucas et al., 2019).

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11.2 Policy Implications 11.2.1 Policy Goals (1) Solve the spatial mismatch between rural transport supply and population demand At present, a core problem of rural transport in China is the relationship between supply and demand, which is reflected in the spatial mismatch between transport supply and population demand, rather than simple oversupply or oversupply. There is a certain degree of spatial mismatch between supply and demand on different spatial scales, including nation, region and county. This mismatch not only shows that the scale of transport supply does not adapt to the size of rural population in a specific region but also shows that the type of transport supply does not adapt to the rural population composition in a specific region. To solve this problem, we propose to improve the rural basic road network comprehensively, which can provide strong support for rural vitalisation, and put forward such measures in the scheme as scientifically predicting the passenger and freight demand, adjusting measures to local conditions, making overall arrangements for rural transport construction, strengthening the connection between rural transport project construction and land space planning, and optimising rural bus operation schemes to match villagers’ travel habits. The implementation of these policies requires in-depth investigation on the needs of local rural residents before planning and construction, along with more rational analysis of the characteristics of local rural population. We should take the investigation and analysis as an indispensable part of the planning process and apply the analysis results to the planning and construction, instead of making this a mere formality. We should avoid the intervention of administrative forces to solve the problem of spatial mismatch between rural transport supply and population demand. (2) Solve the regional inequality of rural transport and the dual division of urban and rural areas The current rural transport facilities and services in China are insufficient in terms of spatial equity, including regional inequality and urban–rural dual division. Based on the population size of each region, the existing transport facilities and services and transport investment are highly unbalanced. The dual division of urban and rural areas is reflected in the large gap between the scale and quality of rural transport facilities and services and those in urbanised areas. To solve this problem, we propose to build an integrated urban and rural modern comprehensive transport system, form a new, modern rural transport logistics format and put forward measures in the plan, such as improving the public transport management system, establishing urban and rural integrated public transport services, improving the construction of urban and rural passenger and freight transport station hub system and strengthening the construction of rural express service network. Implementing these policies will promote regional and urban–rural spatial equity. In the context of the differences between the

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natural, human and geographical environments, resource endowment and the urban– rural built-up environment, transport construction does not need to pursue absolute homogenisation. An evaluation of facilities and services from different perspectives may find some differences. The implementation of corresponding policies should narrow the differences between regions and between urban and rural areas, so that rural residents in different regions have equal rights to enjoy high-quality transport services. (3) Solve the growing personalised travel needs of rural residents With the rapid development of China’s social economy, China has become a middleincome country. The purchasing power of residents has been greatly improved, and their material life has been significantly improved. At the same time, China attaches great importance to rural development and continues to promote a targeted povertyalleviation policy, which basically alleviated the poverty of all rural residents by the end of 2020. In this context, the consumption ability of Chinese rural residents has been greatly improved. On the other hand, China’s rural population composition is changing. We found the ageing of the rural population, the miniaturisation of rural families, and the rising proportion of rural females to varying degrees. These characteristics indicate that the personalised travel demand of Chinese rural residents will continue to rise, which is not consistent with the current level of rural transport development. To solve these problems, we propose to promote the intelligent rural transport operation and management mode of informatisation, establish humanised high-quality rural transport service, and include measures in the scheme such as popularising rural school bus services, providing customised rural transport services covering the whole area and e-commerce entering the countryside. The significance of implementing these policies is that they will meet the various travel needs of rural residents and highlight the inclusiveness of rural transport services, so that children, older people, females and other vulnerable groups can get enough attention. (4) Solve the dilemma of rural transport infrastructure investment return For a long time, the administrative means of the government were the only way to promote the construction of rural transport. This is because the population density in rural areas is low and scattered, and the economic and social development is relatively backward. Therefore, it is difficult to make profits from investment and to attract market capital. Due to the lack of market regulation and scientific analysis before planning and assigning responsibility, investment in rural transport construction is often very premature and irrational. After governments invest in the construction of transport infrastructure in rural areas, most of them cannot recover the costs in a short time, let alone manage and maintain the implementation. To solve these problems, we propose to implement a normalised rural infrastructure maintenance mechanism, and we put forward measures, such as promoting the market-oriented development of rural transport facilities maintenance and strengthening the standardised regular assessment of the quality of rural transport facilities. The significance of implementing these policies lies in the introduction of market mechanisms and the combination of market and government regulation. Through government investment

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or allowing investors to harvest land appreciation and other rights and interests, not only can rural transport construction investors make profits, but they can also properly maintain the facilities and promote solutions to rural transport infrastructure investment problems.

11.2.2 Policy Obstacles (1) The willingness of rural residents to accept new things is poor, which affects the promotion of new technology Compared with urban residents, the population composition of rural residents is older and the education level is lower. In addition, traditional culture and customs are still maintained in many rural areas. In this context, the willingness of rural residents to accept new things is relatively poor. In our policy proposal, we emphasise the promotion of new technologies such as the IOT and e-commerce in rural areas. The special population composition of rural residents is likely to affect the progress of the promotion of emerging technologies, which is more difficult than it is in urban areas. Although the application of new technology can promote improvements in rural transport service quality, it needs to be established on the premise that rural residents are willing to accept the use of new technology. In the promotion of new technology to rural residents, we should take a step-by-step approach. When encountering obstacles, we should focus on the wishes and needs of residents, instead of promoting for the sake of promotion by making rural residents feel the convenience of new technology to promote the adoption of new technology. (2) Rural grassroots governance capacity is relatively insufficient, which affects the vertical implementation of the new policy Improvements in rural transport construction and transport service are inseparable from the implementation of policies by grassroots personnel. However, the limitations of village cadres in many areas often become obstacles to the implementation of policies, as they are the main people in charge of rural governance. First of all, some rural grassroots cadres have relatively backward governance concepts. They often adopt paternalistic management and control methods, and they are used to making decisions from personal experience. Secondly, the power of rural grassroots governance is generalised and alienated. Some village cadres embezzle, intercept and misappropriate the funds allocated by their superiors. They falsely report and claim, which seriously hinders the implementation of construction investment in rural areas. Thirdly, the education level of rural grassroots cadres is generally low, and the overall leadership ability of rural cadres in some areas is also relatively limited. They lack the awareness and ability to learn, the ability to reform and innovate, and the basic information technology and ability they need to carry out smart governance. In the face of this problem, we should strengthen the training of rural grassroots cadres,

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implement reward and punishment mechanisms, and comprehensively improve rural grassroots governance. (3) The return cycle of transport infrastructure is relatively long, which affects the willingness to invest in new projects Compared with urban investment, the income from rural investment is generally lower, and the return cycle of transport infrastructure investment is longer than for general investment. This characteristic leads to the low willingness of governments and enterprises to invest in new rural transport projects. Although we are proposing that investors should be able to make profits through market-oriented means, the characteristics of rural transport infrastructure investment lead to its weak ability to attract investment, which may become a major obstacle to the investment in rural transport infrastructure. In view of this, in addition to the overall arrangement proposed in our previous policy, on the one hand, we can strengthen the transport + mode, expand the efficiency of rural transport investment, and improve the sustainable operation ability of the project; on the other hand, we should continue to implement the government’s financial subsidies appropriately to support necessary projects in rural areas.

11.3 Future Research Agenda 11.3.1 Future Rural Changes in the World With the increase in urbanisation, the proportion of rural population in the world is gradually decreasing. The size and proportion of rural population may continue to decline in the future. Currently, the urbanisation rate in the world is 55.3% (United Nations, 2019), and less than half of the world’s population lives in rural areas. The urbanisation rate in developed countries is generally over 80%, and even in underdeveloped areas, urbanisation has reached 50%. Although the proportion of rural population has been declining all over the world, considering the increase in the world’s population, the scale of rural population has risen at times in the past. According to the prediction of the United Nations, the current rural population in the world is close to its peak, and the scale of rural population will decline slowly in the future, reaching 3.09 billion by 2050. In the future, the rural population will continue to change in developing countries, where urbanisation will still remain in the middle and early stages. With the development of industrialisation, people in rural areas will gradually shift to urbanised areas. The transfer of the rural population to cities will inevitably bring about rural recessions to a certain extent (Liu & Li, 2017). When the rural population is decreasing day by day, rural areas are faced with challenges such as labour shortages, a shrinking local market, economic recession, etc., which make it difficult for family workshops and small enterprises that depend on the local market (Teixeira & Mishel, 1992). In addition, with the depression of the rural economy and people’s yearning for

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urban life, people with higher education levels are generally reluctant to return to rural areas in developing countries, leading to a serious shortage of talent in those areas. Western Europe, North America, Japan, South Korea, Australia and other regions have experienced the relative weakness of rural areas in urbanised regions (Horlings & Marsden, 2014; Irwin et al., 2010; Pritchard & McManus, 2000). To solve such rural recessions, developed countries have launched a series of measures to revive the countryside, such as Japan’s One Village, One Product and South Korea’s New Village Movement, which have alleviated rural recessions to a certain extent and promoted the development of rural areas by feeding the rural development back (Claymone & Jaiborisudhi, 2011; Fujimoto, 1992; Sonn & Gimm, 2013). In western developed countries, the rural population is relatively small, and the development level tends to be relatively stable. However, measures to encourage innovation and entrepreneurship are still being introduced to promote the vitality of rural areas (Pato, 2020). In the future progress of urbanisation in developing countries, more attention should be paid to rural areas to avoid excessive imbalances between urban and rural areas. The development of globalisation has had an impact on rural development in the world (Long, 2003). Globalisation has strengthened the social and economic ties among countries and accelerated the flows of various factors in the world. In this context, the sales of agricultural products are faced with global competition. Agricultural products manufactured in developed countries under mechanisation and standardisation have obvious competitive advantages over traditional agricultural products under the small-scale peasant economy in developing countries, which hinders the agricultural development in rural areas of developing countries to some degree. In addition, global capital has poured into developing countries, taking advantage of the low labour cost and land cost to set up enterprises in these countries and regions. This accelerates the transfer of rural surplus labour in developing countries and promotes the industrialisation of these rural areas. On the other hand, since the environmental control in developing countries is not strict, these enterprises have caused some damage to the rural environment. It is doubtful whether the villages of China and other developing countries will follow the development model of western developed countries. Firstly, at present, China’s rural development is not only spontaneous but also affected by globalisation. The specific impact of globalisation on rural development has been discussed above. Secondly, China has a large population density, and the available cultivated land is limited. There is a basic farmland protection zone in every village or township (Lichtenberg & Ding, 2008). At the same time, the government has forced rural residents to relocate to large high-density communities (Li et al., 2021). This means that China will not move towards the low-density development of the American dream style. At least five of the eight MDGs of the United Nations are closely related to rural development. They are eradicating extreme poverty and hunger; achieving universal primary education; reducing child mortality; fighting AIDS, malaria and other diseases; and ensuring environmental sustainability. These problems are more common in rural areas, so the key to achieving these development goals lies in solving

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rural poverty, education, medical care and environmental problems, especially in developing countries. Transport plays a supporting role in promoting rural development. To accelerate the realisation of human development goals, rural transport developers can make efforts in the following aspects: Firstly, improve the basic road networks and ensure all rural settlements are covered by road networks; secondly, improve the safety and protection of roads, and avoid the impact of sudden damage from such events as natural disasters and beast attacks on rural residents’ travel; thirdly, expand the layout of refuelling stations to ensure the convenience of all kinds of vehicles entering rural areas; finally, improve the ability of rural residents to use transport, including training rural residents to drive motor vehicles and use information technology to access modern transport services.

11.3.2 Prospects of Rural Population and Transport Development in China China is a large developing country in the middle and late stage of urbanisation, and the characteristics of its rural population are quite different from those of developed countries and those of developing countries in the early stage of urbanisation, which means that China’s rural transport demand has some unique characteristics. Compared with most developed countries, the proportion of the rural population in China is higher, and their income and consumption level is relatively lower. Compared with most developing countries in the early stage of urbanisation, China’s rural population composition is characterised more by ageing and family miniaturisation. It should be noted that countries around the world have different criteria for defining cities and villages. Compared with most western cities, China has a higher threshold for defining cities and towns. In addition, due to China’s unique household registration system, the proportion of China’s rural population is different under various standards (Chan & Zhang, 1999). These factors should all be considered when making comparisons with other countries around the world. In addition, due to Chinese traditional festivals and cultural events such as Spring Festival, large-scale population movements between urban and rural areas and other regions will occur in China on these special holidays, which will cause great changes in the scale and structure of the rural population in a short time (Yang et al., 2020). We carried out our research on rural transition and rural transport in China. For a long time, due to the huge difficulty of obtaining data in rural areas, the national-level research on rural travel patterns in China was very limited (Zhao & Yu, 2020). At the same time, in the past, studies generally focused on rural development itself or rural transport itself, but rarely connected and analysed all factors comprehensively. However, as a large country with a unique development path, the process of rural transport development in China is of great reference significance. We systematically introduce the development of rural transport and its interaction with population in China from the perspective of geography for the first time. We find that China’s

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rural transport infrastructure has been greatly improved in the past, but that regional imbalances and regional mismatches with demand are still widespread. At the same time, with the change in the population composition, personalised travel demand will become more prominent in rural China. This book provides new key evidence in rural transport from China through multi-source big data analysis and help to improve the theory of transport geography in the coupling relationship between rural population and infrastructure. According to China’s current rural population characteristics and development trends, we can at least state the following expectations: (1) China’s rural population will continue to decline. On the one hand, the birth rate of China’s population is already at a very low level, contributing to the low natural population growth rate. Without policy stimulus, the total population will continue to decline in the future. On the other hand, China’s urbanisation has not yet been completed, and the rural population will continue to outmigrate to urban areas for a considerable time in the future. This decrease in the rural population will bring about a continuous decline of population density in rural areas. (2) China’s rural population composition will move into a deep ageing stage, which is also affected by two factors. Due to the influence of the birth rate, China’s overall population is in deep ageing; on the other hand, the population transferring from rural to urban areas is mainly young and middle-aged, which is leading to the rapid development of ageing in rural areas. (3) The education level of China’s rural population will continue to rise. At present, China has basically achieved full coverage of compulsory education, the number of people dropping out of school in rural areas has been greatly reduced, and the enrolment rate of high schools and universities has been continuously improved, which will continue to improve the education levels of the rural population, thus promoting residents’ willingness to accept new things and increase communication with the external environment. (4) In some mega-city regions of China, the urban–rural boundary of population will gradually blur. Most provincial administrative regions in China have abolished the division between agricultural and non-agricultural registered permanent residence, and unified them as residents. In the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, and other mega-city regions, the level of urban–rural integration is constantly improving, and the connection between rural residents and towns is high. Rural populations have gradually integrated into urban life. China’s rural development and population change is a complex transition process, which will have a far-reaching impact on future rural transport demand. At the same time, various emerging technologies have been developing rapidly, creating many new application scenarios and promoting new traffic demands. We predict that the following changes may occur in rural traffic in the future. First, new energy vehicles with automatic driving functions will be gradually popularised in rural areas. The population density in rural areas is low, and it may continue to decline in the future, making it difficult to form a stable and large-scale passenger corridor. Therefore, the improvement of motorisation levels in rural areas is a necessary means to meet the travel needs of rural residents better. In the future, with new energy vehicles gradually replacing the traditional fuel ones, environmental

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problems brought about by rural motorisation can be effectively tackled. In addition, the proportion of vulnerable rural residents such as older people and females is relatively high, and they may have difficulties in driving. However, with the development of communication technology, artificial intelligence and the IOT, automatic driving technology will be greatly improved, which will lower the threshold of personal driving skills when travelling by car to meet the travelling needs of vulnerable rural groups. Second, personalised transport services that can be customised independently are gradually being popularised in rural areas, since the population composition in those areas tends to be miniaturised and the consumption level is gradually increasing. The original characteristics of population dispersion in rural areas, with new and constantly emerging requirements for high-quality, personalised and diversified transport services also need to be considered. To improve the efficiency of transport services and to save public transport resources, it is necessary to provide more accurate access to rural public transport services. On the basis of the gradual popularisation of intelligent devices in rural areas, it is possible to arrange transport services to meet the actual needs of rural residents in the future. Rural residents can submit their travel needs to the public transport network platform in advance through intelligent devices, and the cloud platform forms normalised and temporary transport service lines through summarisation, calculation, analysis, and management, thus providing flexible and efficient personalised transport services for rural residents. Third, the coverage rate of e-commerce and express logistics outlets has gradually increased in rural areas. The continuous development of e-commerce and logistics outlets has promoted the distribution of various agricultural products and handmade products in rural areas, which has driven the development of the rural economy. It has also enabled other products to enter rural regions, enriched the material life and improved the life quality of rural residents. Given the ageing population, there is a great demand among rural residents to get all kinds of products and services without leaving home. In the future, the coverage rate of express logistics outlets in rural areas will be further improved, and the differences between urban–rural areas and other regions will be continuously reduced to meet the needs of rural residents better. Fourth, rapid transport networks with medium and high transport volumes will gradually extend to rural areas. With the increase in rural residents’ high-level consumption, the demand of rural residents for going to cities and towns has increased, and the connection between settlement systems tends to be vertical. Especially in some mega-city regions in eastern China, the regional population density is high, as is the level of urban–rural integration, and the links between cities and villages are closer. If the proportion of car travel is too high, these areas will face the risk of traffic congestion. In addition, the financial capacity of local governments in these areas is relatively strong. Under the above conditions, rapid transport networks with medium and high traffic volume, such as light rail and suburban railway, will gradually extend to rural areas in the future, optimising the passenger service system and promoting seamless connections between different modes of transport, so that rural residents can travel to different destinations more conveniently. Realising the

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extension of rapid transport networks of medium and high volume to rural areas can not only give full play to the speed advantages and reduce the time cost of rural residents’ travel but also lower the per-capita transport energy consumption compared with taking cars and regular buses, which is conducive to reducing the total energy consumption of regional transport.

11.3.3 Prospect of Research Topics Taking China as a case study, this research explores a series of characteristics and rules of China’s rural population and transport development, and it puts forward policy suggestions to deal with rural traffic problems. At present, scholars are actively exploring a more people-oriented and sustainable development model of rural transport, focusing on the spatial equity of transport, rural residents’ travel behaviour, rural passenger transport mode, rural transport investment management, rural transport safety, rural transport construction norms, etc. Rural areas in China and around the world are undergoing complex and profound changes, and technology is also developing rapidly. Under these circumstances, the following aspects may be worthy of attention in future rural transport studies. First, the effects of personalised rural transport service mode supported by big data and other new technologies. The characteristics of population distribution and composition in rural areas bring the necessity of personalised transport services. Also, with the rapid development of information technology, it is possible to provide personalised transport services (Raubal et al., 2021). Nowadays, in many developing countries with low rural car ownership, these transport needs are often met by local informal transport services, such as using privately contracted motorcycles, old cars and even trucks (Ehebrecht et al., 2018). These modes of travel have great deficiencies in safety, convenience and comfort. Platforms based on mobile positioning equipment, cloud computing and other technologies can provide great help to improve rural transport services (Chavhan et al., 2019). However, it should be noted that there are great differences in the level of economic and social development in different regions. In some underdeveloped countries and regions, the local infrastructure level and government financial resources are insufficient to support the application of some intelligent transport systems in the short and medium term. Therefore, future research should pay attention to adaptation to local conditions and combining the geographical environment with social and economic development level of different countries to provide the most targeted and effective personalised rural transport service mode. Second, study of investment in and maintenance of rural transport facilities. Rural transport infrastructures are widely distributed, and the construction quality is relatively low. Their problems of ageing and lack of maintenance are common in all countries worldwide (Das et al., 2019). In developing countries, the quality of rural transport infrastructures and the level of administrative governance are relatively low, leading to the maintenance problems for rural transport infrastructure (Tchanche, 2019). In developed countries, rural transport infrastructure was built a long time

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ago. The continuous decline of the rural population is leading to redundancy of facilities and problems with facility maintenance. The world rural population is expected to decline in the future. In this context, future research should pay attention to introducing capital to maintain and update these rural transport infrastructures, and providing various solutions for different areas and different types of facilities. Third, study of the mobility of vulnerable groups and the accessibility of vulnerable areas. There are many vulnerable groups in rural areas worldwide, such as older people, children, females, and low-income people (Camarero & Oliva, 2019). In many countries and regions, they find it inconvenient to travel and have low levels of mobility, which makes it difficult for them to enjoy all kinds of products and services outside their residential areas (Plazini´c & Jovi´c, 2018). It also affects their social relationships, placing them in a more vulnerable position in society (Dahlberg & McKee, 2018). In addition to the mobility differences between people, accessibility differences between regions is also a serious problem in rural areas. The high administrative capacity of the Chinese government makes it possible to pay special attention to vulnerable groups and areas, as we can see in China’s successful practice of combatting poverty. However, different countries and regions in the world have different administrative systems and are at different development stages. Realising spatial justice should be an important goal of rural development, and future research should pay more attention to improving the mobility of vulnerable groups and the accessibility of vulnerable areas. Fourth, the study of rural transport response under global climate change and extreme weather. Global climate change is one of the most important challenges facing humankind in the twenty-first century. Human activity has led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, which is promoting the trend of global warming (HoeghGuldberg et al., 2018; Mikhaylov et al., 2020; Xu et al., 2018). Rural transport is also affected by global climate change. Negative impacts on rural health have been discovered (Zeba, 2020). Extreme weather has brought great damage to rural transport infrastructure, causing greater difficulties for many poor rural areas (Diakakis et al., 2020; Jamshed et al., 2021). This implies that rural transport systems still need extensive adaptation to address the increase in extreme events caused by climate change. At the same time, people in rural areas can make efforts to mitigate climate warming. Building climate-friendly transport in rural areas needs to be considered (Tønnesen et al., 2022).

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Correction to: Rural Transition and Transport in China

Correction to: P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5 The original version of the book was inadvertently published with incorrect Funder information in the front matter. The corrected book has been updated with the changes.

The updated version of the book can be found at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5 © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5_12

C1

Index

A Accessibility, 3, 4, 16, 25, 26, 28 Administrative village, 18, 21, 22 Ageing, 42 Age structure, 131, 136, 137, 154, 162, 165, 166 Altitude, 250, 251, 254, 256, 259 Anping County, 253, 256–265, 267–270, 272–278, 283

B Bohai Sea, 249–251

Emperor Gaozu of the Han Dynasty, The, 253 Expenditure, 73–77 Expressway, 171, 173, 175

F Fairness, 178 Family life cycle, 46 Family miniaturisation, 144 Family structure, 46 Financial budget, 23 Financial deficit, 128 Five-Year Plan, 121, 124

C Chengde South Railway Station, 265 China, 2, 6–12, 15–26, 28–30 Coefficient of variation (CV), 179–184 Compulsory primary education, 147 Consumption, 73–75, 97 County-level variation, 176 CPC National Congress, 122

G Gender structure, 131, 134, 154, 159, 162, 165, 166, 168 Geographical information system (GIS), 28–30 Gini coefficient, 183, 184 GWR model, 159

D Double-decker bus, 265 Dual urban–rural structure, 77

H Highway system, 101, 102 Household size, 142–144, 146, 155, 156 Hukou, 151, 152 Hu Line, The, 59, 84, 87, 95

E E-commerce, 314, 319, 320 Economic development, 35–37, 40

I Illiteracy rate, 148–150

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and H. Hu, Rural Transition and Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-6498-5

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354 Information technology, 298, 305, 311, 320, 329 Inter-county, 183 Internet of things (IOT), The, 120 Intra-county, 178

K Kernel density, 86, 90, 93

L Landform, 176 Land use, 39, 40, 46 Lifestyle, 73 Living environment, 65, 78, 82, 88, 97 Logistics, 119, 124 Longhua County, 253, 255–263, 265–270, 276, 277, 279, 280, 282

M Macroenvironmental, 201 Market share, 212 Market town, 18 Marriage rate, 142, 147, 156 Measures for the Administration of Rural Highway Construction, The, 287, 321 Measures for the Administration of Rural Roads Maintenance, The, 291 Medical treatment, 194, 195, 197, 205, 208, 209 Mega-city region, 212, 213, 215 Mianbaoche, 116, 117 Mileage, 101, 102, 104–106, 113, 121, 122, 125, 126, 128 Ministry of Communications, 121–123 Ministry of Transport, 8, 22–24 Mobile phone signalling, 211, 212, 234 Mobility, 3, 4, 10 Moran’s, 157

N National college entrance examination, 147 National highway, 101, 103 Natural population growth, 55, 60, 65 Natural village, 18, 21 North China Plain, 249, 259 Notice on Accelerating the Work of Bus-Passing in Administrative Villages, The, 290, 301

Index O One-generation household, 143–146, 154–157, 162, 163 Origin–Destination (OD), 212 P People-oriented, 292, 301, 302 Point Of Interest (POI), 211, 212 Population composition, 131, 140, 151, 154–157, 166 Potential opportunity, 171 Poverty relief, 37, 38, 46 Public affairs, 46 Public facility, 39, 48 Public transport, 110, 111, 113–116, 118–120, 128, 129 Q Qing Dynasty, The, 262 S Sample representativeness, 212 Sanitation equipment, 88, 90 Settlement system, 190–192, 201, 205 Slope, 249, 250, 252, 254, 259 Social equity, 37, 38 Social exclusion, 37, 38, 42, 46 Social isolation, 42, 44 Socioeconomic attributes, 201, 205, 207, 208 Spatial autocorrelation, 157, 158 Spatial granularity, 212 Spatial integration, 302, 303 Standard residual, 159, 160 R Reform and opening up, 6, 16 Regulations on the Management of Road Passenger Transport and Passenger Stations, The, 290 Research and Development (R&D), 250, 318 Residential population, 151, 152 Road density, 40 Road network, 101, 107, 109, 121, 124–126, 128 Rural area, 1–7, 9–12, 15–22, 24–26 Rural development, 1–3, 5–7, 9, 11, 12, 16, 29 Rural infrastructure, 65, 88, 90, 97 Rural poverty alleviation, 7, 8

Index Rural road, 8, 10, 12, 22–25 Rural settlement, 55, 77, 78, 81, 84–90, 92, 93, 95, 96 Rural transport, 2, 4, 6, 9–12, 15–17, 22, 24–26 Rural vitalisation, 9, 11–13, 15, 18 T Taihang Mountain, 249, 250 Tap water, 88, 90–92 Technical Standard of Highway Engineering, The, 287 Three rural issues, 122 Town planning, 289 Traffic capacity, 101 Transport cost, 171 Transport equity, 41, 44 Transport expenditure, 151–160, 162, 165, 166, 168 Transport geography, 15–17 Transport investment, 107, 109, 126, 127, 129 Transport resistance, 171 Transport system, 16, 21 Transport + tourism, 307–309, 328 Travel demand, 40, 41, 46, 47

355 Travel distance, 189, 191, 199, 200, 202, 208 Travel frequency, 191, 192, 194, 201, 202, 204, 205, 207–209 Travel purpose, 191, 194, 195, 199, 209

U Unbalanced growth, 35 United Nations promoted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), The, 1 Urban construction land, 211 Urbanisation, 55, 56, 59, 60, 62, 64, 65, 81, 94, 96 Urban system, 190

V Village organisation, 81 Village planning, 289 Visual interpretation, 212

Y Yangtze River, 59, 64, 74, 83–85 Yanshan Mountain, 249, 250, 256