Probabilities: the little numbers that rule our lives 9780470040010, 0470040017

Table of contents :
Preface.1. Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways.The Probabilist.The Probabilist's Toys and Language.The Probabilist's Rule Book.Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants.Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts.Liar, Liar.Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches.Co~nbinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry.The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution.Final Word.2. Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles.Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards.Goats and Gloats.Happy Birthday.Typical Atypicalities.Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns.The British Snob and I.Final Word.3. Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape?Probable Itnprobabilities.Saddam and I.Taking Tiny Risks.A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One!Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37.Clumps in Space.Final Word.4. Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue.Driving Miss Daisy.Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls).Bayes and My Green Card.Objection Your Honor.Final Word.5. Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect.Great Expectations.Good Things Come to Those Who Wait.Expect the Unexpected.Size Matters (and Length, and Age).Deviant Behavior.Final Word.6. Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results.Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over.Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood.Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion.Let's Get Serious.Bells and Bread.How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life.Final Word.7. Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You.French Letters.Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money.Craps: Not so Dicey After All.Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics.Math for Losers.Win Money and Lose Friends.Final Word.8. Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians.Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies?4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20.Polls Gone Wild.The Lawsuit and the Lurker.Football Players and Geyser Eruptions.Snooping in the Abbot's Garden.Final Word.9. Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation.Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic.Random and Not-So-Random Digits.Number One Is Number One.Is Random Really Random?Final Word.Index.