Next Generation Roadmapping : Establishing Technology and Innovation Pathways Towards Sustainable Value [1 ed.] 9783031385742, 9783031385759

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Science, Technology and Innovation Studies

Tugrul U. Daim Robert Phaal Dirk Meissner Clive Kerr   Editors

Next Generation Roadmapping Establishing Technology and Innovation Pathways Towards Sustainable Value

Science, Technology and Innovation Studies Series Editors Leonid Gokhberg, Moscow, Russia Dirk Meissner, Moscow, Russia Editorial Board Members Elias G. Carayannis, Department of Information Systems & Technology Management, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA Fred Gault, United Nations University – Maastricht, Maastricht, The Netherlands Jeong-Dong Lee, Technology Management, Economics and Policy, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea (Republic of) Jonathan Linton, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada Ian Miles, Manchester Institute of Innovation, Manchester Business School, Manchester, UK Fred Young Phillips, SUNY Korea, Incheon City, Korea (Republic of) Ozcan Saritas , HSE, National Research University Higher School, Moscow, Russia Philip Shapira, Business School, University of Manchester, Alliance Manchester, Manchester, UK Alexander Sokolov, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School, Moscow, c.Moscow, Russia Nicholas Vonortas, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA

Science, technology and innovation (STI) studies are interrelated, as are STI policies and policy studies. This series of books aims to contribute to improved understanding of these interrelations. Their importance has become more widely recognized, as the role of innovation in driving economic development and fostering societal welfare has become almost conventional wisdom. Interdisciplinary in coverage, the series focuses on the links between STI, business, and the broader economy and society. The series includes conceptual and empirical contributions, which aim to extend our theoretical grasp while offering practical relevance. Relevant topics include the economic and social impacts of STI, STI policy design and implementation, technology and innovation management, entrepreneurship (and related policies), foresight studies, and analysis of emerging technologies. The series is addressed to professionals in research and teaching, consultancies and industry, government and international organizations.

Tugrul U. Daim  •  Robert Phaal  •  Dirk Meissner  •  Clive Kerr Editors

Next Generation Roadmapping Establishing Technology and Innovation Pathways Towards Sustainable Value

Editors Tugrul U. Daim Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity & Cyber Defense Policy Center Portland State University Portland, OR, USA Dirk Meissner National Research University Higher School of Economics Moscow, Russia

Robert Phaal Institute for Manufacturing University of Cambridge Cambridge, UK Clive Kerr Institute for Manufacturing University of Cambridge Cambridge, UK

ISSN 2570-1509     ISSN 2570-1517 (electronic) Science, Technology and Innovation Studies ISBN 978-3-031-38574-2    ISBN 978-3-031-38575-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Preface

Introduction to Roadmapping Roadmapping is a structured visual approach for supporting strategic technology and innovation management, providing strategic navigational support (hence the ‘roadmap’ metaphor) for technologists, designers, entrepreneurs, programme managers, executives, policy makers and other stakeholders involved in the formulation and implementation of strategy. Roadmapping emerged in US high tech manufacturing sectors more than 50 years ago (Kerr and Phaal 2020), such as aerospace, semiconductors, defence, and energy systems. The method has been subsequently widely adopted internationally, adapted to many different contexts at both firm and sector levels. Academic interest in the method began in the 1990s (Park et al. 2020), focusing on industrial practice, development of methods, and establishment of underpinning principles. To illustrate the roadmapping approach, Figs. 1–3 show three graphics from the 2018 Global Exploration Roadmap from the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG), representing 14 national and regional space agencies, essential for coordination of long-range complex and technically challenging programmes. Figure 1 is the top-level roadmap, depicting the pathway from Earth orbit to the goal of humans on the Martian surface. Figure 2 sets out the mission scenario established to ensure that the various contributions from ISECG agencies align with the overall objectives. Figure 3 provides more detail of the critical technology development portfolio necessary to enable the mission. This is the third edition of The Global Exploration Roadmap, which was first published in 2011, and further editions are expected as the mission progresses, providing a flexible strategic navigational support function for the space exploration innovation system. Roadmapping is very flexible and can be adapted to virtually any strategic context, building on underpinning principles. In terms of a formal definition, ‘a roadmap is a structured visual chronology of strategic intent’ (Kerr and Phaal 2022), illustrated conceptually in Fig.  4. The systems basis of roadmapping provides a v

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Fig. 1  The Global Exploration Roadmap (NASA 2018)

Fig. 2  ISECG Mission Scenario, Global Exploration Roadmap (NASA 2018)

scalable structure within which all strategically relevant information can be organised and connected in a coherent manner. Visually, roadmaps can take many forms, but the most common functional representation is a multi-perspective time-based diagram, with the structure governed by four fundamental questions:

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Fig. 3  Critical Technology Portfolio (three samples themes), Global Exploration Roadmap (NASA 2018)

Fig. 4  Roadmap principles, showing (a) Roadmap ‘canvas’, providing structure for organising strategic knowledge; (b) Data layer, with strategic information organised and connected according to canvas structure, depicting pathway/s from supply-side resources to solutions and demand-side benefits; and (c) Social layer, emphasising mutual stakeholder understanding and commitments (adapted from Phaal and Muller 2009, and Kerr and Phaal 2022)

1. Why do we need to act (external environmental and market drivers, policy, and strategy), depicting demand-side opportunities, threats, and anticipated benefits? 2. What should we do (products, services, and other value-adding tangible systems), representing tangible value-adding initiatives and artefacts? 3. How should we do it (technology, capabilities, resources, and other enablers), depicting supply-side initiatives and assets?

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4. When should we do it (time), allowing change and evolution of content from Why, What, and How perspectives to be represented, including dependences? The real power of roadmaps (and the associated process of roadmapping) resides in the social networks of stakeholders that must coordinate perceptions, decisions, and actions for success (Fig. 3), addressing two further fundamental questions: 5. Who will be involved with and responsible for the initiative? 6. Where will the activity occur?

Book Overview This book comprises 12 chapters, covering a range of practical and conceptual aspects of roadmapping, including strategic alignment in organisations, analysis methods and techniques, together with a series of technology roadmapping case studies in the energy sector.

Strategic Alignment in Organisations The following three chapters consider aspects of organisation alignment, including horizontal and vertical system dependences and synchronisation, how roadmapping can relate innovation priorities to strategic organisational objectives, and the harmonising role of key performance indicators in strategic planning. 1. Vinayavekhin and Phaal introduce roadmapping in terms of both structure and process, emphasising the role of roadmapping as a support service to core business processes such as strategy and innovation, and its diagnostic and problem-­ solving functions. The flexibility of roadmapping is discussed with reference to various aspects of internal and external ‘strategic fit’. The systems basis of ­roadmapping supports horizontal alignment, vertical integration, and temporal synchronisation, which are key aspects of developing coherent strategic plans. 2. Bereznoy and Snegirev explore the main issues that large companies typically face in the process of transition from the formulation of innovation strategies to their practical implementation. They consider how technological roadmaps are used to address these issues in actual corporate practices and to align innovation to broader business strategy and organisational context. They provide examples from a major oil and gas producer, a large aircraft manufacturer and a major retail bank. 3. Amalishiya and Daim consider how Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) can be incorporated into roadmaps, to ensure alignment between business initiatives and corporate strategy and goals. Focusing on New Work SE, which provides online professional business networking platform, online surveys and interviews were undertaken to understand the barriers and enablers to effective deployment of a KPI framework. A roadmap was developed to cultivate a healthy KPI culture

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in the organisation, to encourage collaboration without the negative impacts that performance management system can sometimes generate.

Techniques and Tools for Roadmapping The following three chapters focus on practical methods for deploying roadmapping, including a template-based approach for supporting technology venture funding, how digital tools can enhance the roadmapping process now and in the future, and how quantitative and qualitative methods can be combined effectively, 4. Taminiau and Phaal present the investor view of technology ventures, where a premium is often charged by investors to account for a lack of knowledge compared to the entrepreneur. A value-oriented roadmapping framework has been developed for early-stage venture funding, which was designed to help ventures to articulate their knowledge and understanding, support financial analysis, reducing information asymmetries and supporting better investment deals. The roadmap template and process are described, developed, and testing through collaboration with eight diverse technology ventures. 5. Oliveira and Phaal explore how advances in digital technologies can be combined with human-centric co-located and distributed interaction to enhance roadmapping processes. A novel framework has been developed, merging processual and psychosocial perspectives to support research and practice, to better understand the benefits and drawbacks of introducing digital technologies. For example, digital tools can support improvements in information processing and narrative building during interactive workshop environments, leading to more robust roadmaps, but may hinder ideation and consensus-building. 6. Liu, Zhou, Chu, and Tang describe a technology roadmapping approach based on engineering science, technology knowledge graph, and expert interaction, combining quantitative (analysis) and qualitative (expert) knowledge for improved strategic planning. The process is illustrated with reference to a substantial case study relating to the intelligent machine tool sector at the national level in China. The process guides the effective interaction between experts and data through the technical knowledge graph, which can improve the quality of data analysis and enhance the foresight ability of experts.

Case Studies: Technology Roadmaps for the Energy Sector Six case studies are presented in the following chapters, describing the development of technology roadmaps for the energy sector. The first two focus on refrigeration, cooling and heating, and biogas in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. The following four focus on demand response systems for electricity transmission and distribution in Turkey.

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These cases studies are from applied post-graduate projects associated with teaching programmes at (a) Northern Institute of Technology (NIT), Technical University of Hamburg at Harburg, Germany (Chaps. 7 and 8, as well as Chap. 3). Projects involved industrial partners in a range of sectors, including aerospace (Sourav et  al. 2018), agriculture (Rivero and Daim 2017), consumer products (Daim 2021), railroads (Hansen et al. 2016), cryptography (Daim 2021), autonomous vehicles (Daim 2021), and biotechnology (Ramos et al. 2022). (b) Energy Institute of Istanbul Technical University, Turkey (Chaps. 9–12), leveraging the approach developed by the Bonneville Power Administration, a part of the US Department of Energy in the USA (Bonneville Power Administration 2014). 7. Oyedele, Daim, and Herstatt focus on technology roadmapping in the context of Refrigeration, Cooling, and Heating (RCH) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Starting with an understanding of the prevailing global state of the RCH industry, system types and application areas, implementation of such systems in the SSA context is explored, with reference to Nigeria and South Africa. A technology roadmap was developed that accounts for the unique SSA business climate and building construction market, identifying technology and product features and a provisional timeline for RCH technology introduction in the SSA region. 8. Onyekaozuoro, Daim, and Herstatt describe the development of a technology roadmap for biogas production systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a region that is currently highly dependent on fossil fuels for energy generation. Despite having access to land and feedstock, biogas has been underdeveloped as a renewable energy source in the region. Key barriers and business drivers were identified, and with the aid of SWOT and Porter’s Five Forces analysis a technology roadmap for biogas production technology was developed, taking into consideration business drivers, product features, technology features, and resources. 9. Çolak, Kılıç, Akbıyık, Mustafaoğlu, and Daim set out the development of a technology roadmap for electricity transmission and distribution in Turkey, with a focus on demand response (DR). Dynamic management of electricity consumption can reduce energy consumption for residential, commercial, and industrial customers and reduce peak system demand. The roadmap sets out R&D requirements for the sector, based on analysis of existing technologies, capability gaps, and market drivers. 10. Kayakutlu, Kayalica, Argun, Acartürk, Atmaca, Güven, Terzi, Deliaslan, and Daim focus on generation capacity planning for demand response in Turkey’s electricity transmission and distribution systems. Three different aspects are explored: mitigation of constraints in the generation, system balancing and flexibility and optimal aggregation and dispatch demand response (DR) in generation capacity planning. 11. Kocaarslan, Ünal, Durmuşoğlu, Çakmak, Özden, Akay, and Daim consider grid operations in the context of demand response (DR) for electricity transmission

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and distribution in Turkey, with demand response an effective approach enabled by smart grid technologies. A technology roadmap was developed for efficient grid operations, able to deal with sudden demand or load spikes, result in fewer and smoother harmonics, and improved production-consumption balance. 12. Sözer, Kilinç, Sönmez, Özkan, and Daim have developed technology roadmaps for energy management and process load systems in the context of demand response (DR) for Turkish electricity transmission and distribution systems. Such Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS), Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) are a critical component of DR, as are ‘For Legacy Process Load’ (FLPL) systems for legacy management. Finally, the Appendix includes several final project presentations from the Technology Roadmapping class taught by Professor Daim at Portland State University. Typical students include engineers from the silicon forest in Portland. The presentations provide excellent templates for varying technologies. These roadmaps were mostly developed through publicly available data and do not represent the views of the companies studied. The cases illustrated in the book are all rather fresh. It is obvious that the main approach to roadmapping remains similar to that of the past. However, we find that the use of data sources and information bases is shifting slightly from a previously strong focus on expert knowledge towards a combination of big data analysis and expert knowledge of people. A reliable, solid evidence-based roadmap is very likely to involve humans also in the future. Recent developments in artificial intelligence and related tools such as ChatGPT is certainly a useful additional source of information and a tool for information processing but still it can not compensate for the tacit knowledge of people. It’s not only about naked information stored in any database, in publications of any other form but it’s about the experience with past situations which forms the tacit knowledge of people and this makes the difference to machine generated results. A roadmap incorporates multiple uncertainties and ambiguities which artificial intelligence can hardly translate—at least not at this time. Artificial intelligence, in other words, is basically advanced statistics even in the most sophisticated neural networks and deep learning approaches. Certainly, these tools if used properly add enormous value to the roadmap, they help identifying information and possibly causalities which wouldn’t have been discovered by the individual given the large amount of data and information available. Still these tools can describe and visualise but not interpret. The latter is an essential element of any roadmap—interpret the right things and interpret the things right. This remains a human competence and not available from artificial intelligence solutions. We might see such tools appearing in the future but for the time being roadmapping remains strongly determined by the human entred approach. Portland, OR, USA  Tugrul U. Daim Cambridge, UK  Robert Phaal Moscow, Russia  Dirk Meissner Cambridge, UK  Clive Kerr

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References Bonneville Power Administration (2014) Demand response technology roadmap Daim T (ed) (2021) Roadmapping future: technologies, products and services. Springer. Hansen C, Daim T, Ernst H, Herstatt C (2016) The future of rail automation: a scenario-­based technology roadmap for the rail automation market. Technol Forecast Soc Change 110:196–212 Kerr C, Phaal R (2020) Technology roadmapping: industrial roots, forgotten history and unknown origins. Technol Forecast Soc Change 155, 16p Kerr C, Phaal R (2022) Roadmapping and roadmaps: definition and underpinning concepts. IEEE Trans Eng Manage 69(1):6-16 NASA (2018) The global exploration roadmap. International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) January. NASA, NP-2018-01-2502-HQ, G-327035 O’Sullivan E, Phaal R (2021) Agile roadmapping: an adaptive approach to technology foresight. Foresight STI Gov 15(2):65–81 Park H, Phaal R, Ho J-Y, O’Sullivan E (2020) Twenty years of technology and strategic roadmapping research: a school of thought perspective. Technol Forecast Soc Change 154, 14p Phaal R, Muller G (2009) An architectural framework for roadmapping: towards visual strategy. Technol Forecast Soc Change 76(1):39–49 Ramos AG, Daim T, Gaats L, Hutmacher DW, Hackenberger D (2022) Technology roadmap for the development of a 3D cell culture workstation for a biomedical industry startup. Technol Forecast Soc Change 174 Rivero A, Daim T (2017) Technology roadmap: cattle farming sustainability in Germany. J Clean Prod 142(4):4310–4326 Sourav K, Daim T, Herstatt C (2018) Technology roadmap for the single-aisle program of a major aircraft industry company. IEEE Eng Manage Rev (TEM) 46(2)

Acknowledgment

Dirk Meissner’s contribution to the book is based on the study funded by the Basic Research Program of the HSE University.

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Contents

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 Roadmapping for Strategic Alignment, Integration and Synchronization����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������    1 Sukrit Vinayavekhin and Robert Phaal

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Technology Roadmaps as an Instrument for Operationalizing Innovation Strategies of Large Corporations����������������������������������������   25 Alexey Bereznoy and Alexander Snegirev

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 Technology Roadmapping: KPI Management Process������������������������   41 Amalishiya Robert and Tugrul Daim

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 Value-Oriented Roadmapping for Early-­Stage Venture Funding ������   71 Polle-Tobias Taminiau and Robert Phaal

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 Digitalization of Roadmapping Processes: Insights and Opportunities�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   85 Maicon Gouvêa de Oliveira and Robert Phaal

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 Technology Roadmapping Approach Based on Engineering Science, Technology Knowledge Graph, and Expert Interaction����������������������  101 Yufei Liu, Yuhan Liu, Yuan Zhou, and Jie Tang

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 Technology Roadmapping: Cooling and Heating in Sub-Saharan Africa��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  127 Victor Oyedele, Tugrul U. Daim, and Cornelius Herstatt

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Roadmapping of Biogas Production Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa: Waste to Energy��������������������������������������������������������������������������  181 Egwu Chidinma Onyekaozuoro, Tugrul U. Daim, and Cornelius Herstatt

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Demand Response Technology Roadmap for Electricity Transmission and Distribution in Turkey����������������������������������������������  223 Üner Çolak, R. Tayfun Kılıç, Özcan Akbıyık, Mustafa Sinan Mustafaoğlu, and Tugrul Daim xv

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10 Demand  Response in Generation Capacity Planning Technology Roadmap: Turkey’s Quest����������������������������������������������������������������������  233 Gülgün Kayakutlu, M. Ozgur Kayalica, İrem Düzdar Argun, Alper Acartürk, Kaan Deveci, Şura Atmaca, Denizhan Güven, İdil Su Terzi, Eren Deliaslan, and Tugrul Daim 11 Demand  Response in Grid Operations��������������������������������������������������  251 İlhan Kocaarslan, Berat Berkan Ünal, Oğulcan Durmuşoğlu, Adil Çakmak, Alper Emre Özden, Simay Akay, and Tugrul Daim 12 Designing  a Technology Roadmap Through Demand Response Management in Energy ��������������������������������������������������������������������������  271 Hatice Sözer, Atilla Kılınç, Leyla Sönmez, Fadime Özge Özkan, and Tugrul U. Daim Appendices��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  295

Chapter 1

Roadmapping for Strategic Alignment, Integration and Synchronization Sukrit Vinayavekhin and Robert Phaal

1.1 Introduction Roadmaps are structured visualizations that are used in strategic planning and innovation management to align various perspectives such as marketing and technology development over time. ‘Technology’ roadmapping emerged in US technology-­ intensive sectors (such as aerospace, defence, semiconductors and energy) more than five decades ago to support strategic planning for complex engineered systems (Kerr and Phaal 2020). Since then, the method has been widely adopted in manufacturing sectors, and adapted for other strategic purposes, including non-technology-­ intensive contexts. Academic interest emerged in the late 1990s, leading to considerable international research efforts relating to both practice and conceptual foundations (Park et al. 2020), primarily by industrial engineering groups. Despite the general applicability of the roadmapping method, it has been largely ignored in mainstream business school research and teaching, resulting in a lack of awareness in general management, and a paucity of associated management theory. The omission of roadmapping from the set of strategy tools and frameworks identified by Reeves et al. (2015) is illustrative of this gap, where the authors identify more than 80 methods in the context of proliferation of such methods since the 1960s. This omission is significant given the integrative functionality of roadmapping, which can address the proliferation problem and support integration of coherent toolkits.

S. Vinayavekhin (*) Thammasat Business School, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand e-mail: [email protected] R. Phaal Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_1

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This chapter focuses on ‘strategic fit’ as a context, aiming to bridge the gap between roadmapping practice and management theory. A recent bibliometric analysis by Vinayavekhin et al. (2021) has found this topic to be one of the ten core trends in roadmapping research. The flexibility and power of roadmapping is to a large extent due to the structured visual form of roadmaps, with this structure based on three orthogonal dimensions of strategic fit, established through practice: functional alignment, hierarchical integration and temporal synchronization, as reported by Vinayavekhin and Phaal (2019, 2020). A lack of coherence in organizational systems is a major source of uncertainty and conflict in organizations, leading to inefficiency, added cost and delays (e.g., Voelpel et al. 2006). Three dimensions characterize strategic system coherence in organizations: (1) Horizontal (e.g., between marketing and technical functions), (2) Vertical (e.g., between innovation and corporate strategy) and (3) Temporal (e.g., so that technical capabilities will be ready on time for commercialization exploitation). The nature and structure of roadmapping is ideally suited to addressing these challenges. In parallel, several frameworks for tackling the challenges of strategic fit have emerged in the general business and management literature, including the McKinsey ‘7S’ (Waterman et  al. 1980), ‘ESCO’ (Heracleous et  al., 2009) and Strategic Alignment Model (SAM) (Henderson and Venkatramen 1992) frameworks. In the following sections, this chapter provides an overview of the roadmapping method and underpinning concepts (Sect. 1.2), and discusses relevant areas of management theory from the perspective of strategic fit (Sect. 1.3). In Sections 1.4 and 1.5, the relationships between roadmapping (Sect. 1.2) and strategic fit (Sect. 1.3) are discussed, with the aims of strengthening the theoretical basis of roadmapping and exploring how roadmapping can address the challenges of strategic fit. The novel concept of a 3×3×3 ‘strategy cube’ is proposed, and three key dimensions that underpin coherent strategy are conceptualized: horizontal functional alignment, vertical hierarchical integration and temporal synchronization.

1.2 Roadmapping for Strategic Planning and Foresight Roadmapping is a very flexible method that can be adapted to any strategic context (Phaal et al. 2004; Lee and Park 2005), with specific instances often mistaken for the general form. Definitions for ‘roadmap’ and ‘roadmapping’ have been provided by Kerr and Phaal (2022), which are necessarily fairly abstract given the general applicability of the approach: • “A roadmap is a structured visual chronology of strategic intent”. • “Roadmapping is the application of a temporal-spatial structured strategic lens”. As a structured visual method, Fig. 1.1 shows various different visual forms that a roadmap can take. However, there are underpinning principles that govern how information is organized in such visual maps, and design principles and processes for their creation, which are summarized in this section. One general pattern that

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Fig. 1.1  Sample of 20 roadmap visuals (Phaal et al. 2009)

Fig. 1.2  Visual roadmap design process (Kerr and Phaal 2015) in action: (a) exploration of graphic options, and (b) development of communication roadmap from detailed multi-layer product-­technology roadmap

can be observed from the thumbnail images in Fig. 1.2 is that it is generally good practice to work at two levels: 1. Detailed roadmaps such as #14 provide a level of structure and granularity that is suitable for developing strategic plans for complex topics, and for implementing coherent strategic programs. However, such roadmaps can be challenging to understand and communicate for stakeholders not directly involved in their creation and use. 2. Simplified formats such as #1 are more suited to communicating key strategic messages effectively. However, working only at this level can be superficial without the more detailed version necessary for development and implementation of strategy. Generally, it is sensible to first develop a detailed roadmap, and

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then one or more simplified communication versions for wider communication, depending on audience and purpose. Guidance on the design of visual roadmaps has been provided by Kerr and Phaal (2015), which is applicable to both detailed and simplified roadmap forms. This workshop-based design process is illustrated in Fig. 1.2, including (a) visual ideation to identify graphical features that might be usefully incorporated into the roadmap design through review and critique of roadmap examples, and (b) design sketch of communication roadmap based on content developed using the more detailed and structured format. The most common roadmap format is illustrated in Fig. 1.3, comprising a time-­ based multilayer structure. The underlying structure is represented explicitly in such roadmaps, and are very functional in nature, suitable for systematic development and implementation of strategic plans. The underlying structure of other formats may be more implicit, and may not always be easily recognized as roadmaps by users. Figure 1.4 illustrates the multilayer format that is typical of many roadmaps, with each layer associated with the vertical axis representing key parts of the system that must be considered for a complete and coherent strategy. Typical layers for industrial application are shown on the left, such as markets, products and technology, which generally relate to key stakeholder groups that need to be involved for success. Each layer can be further broken down into sub-layers, defining a family of knowledge taxonomies and a common language for stakeholders (e.g., market segments, product functions and technological disciplines). The roadmap structure must be customized to purpose and context, and can be tuned to the specific system scope and focus. This is illustrated in Fig. 1.5 for firms from three diverse sectors.

Fig. 1.3  Multilayer roadmap framework (Phaal et al. 2008)

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Fig. 1.4  Example firm-level roadmap architectures for companies in (a) construction equipment, (b) industrial printing and (c) aerospace sectors (Phaal et al. 2010)

Fig. 1.5 (a) Structured roadmap canvas, (b) organizes narrative elements of strategic plan, (c) synthesizing elements of strategic planning

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The horizontal axis in Fig. 1.4 represents time explicitly, a key dimension that is often strangely missing from strategic frameworks and tools. For example, where is the time dimension in a SWOT analysis matrix? Information is organized according to the defined structure, with elements connected to define strategic plans via a process of strategic narrative synthesis, within and across layers and timeframes. Although roadmapping emerged as a prospective foresight tool, the same structure can be usefully applied retrospectively, as a learning process (Phaal et al. 2011). Change in any system can be represented by the content of roadmaps, overlaid on this structured ‘canvas’, and as such roadmapping can be considered to be a general-­ purpose dynamic systems framework. Roadmap structure is governed by six fundamental strategic questions, highlighted in Fig. 1.3 in italics to right and below the diagram, which further explain the flexibility and general applicability of the method: • Horizontal axis (When?): Where do we want to go? Where are we now? How can we get there? • Vertical axis: Why do we need to act? What should we do? How can we do it?

These kinds of fundamental questions are not new, as indicated by the following stanza from Rudyard Kipling’s ‘I keep six honest serving men’ poem of 1902, cited by Kerr et al. (2013a), and are often incorporated into strategy frameworks and tools in one way or another (referred to as ‘5W1H’ questions). The ‘Who’ and ‘Where’ questions are implicit in the roadmap, with ownership and location associated with layers and content. I keep six honest serving-men (They taught me all I knew); Their names are What and Why and When And How and Where and Who.

The Kipling Society1 suggests that the original inspiration was a fourteenth century medieval Latin epigram in the Register of Daniel Rough, Clerk of Romney (Kent, England): Si sapiens fore vis sex servus qui tibi mando Quid dicas et ubi, de quo, cur, quomodo, quando. (If you wish to be wise I commend to you six servants, Ask what, where, about what, why, how, when.)

It should also be noted that the roadmap metaphor is very popular, and many ‘roadmaps’ have been published that do not comply with the definitions provided above, nor the structural principles elaborated in this section and Fig. 1.3. For example, many published ‘roadmaps’ have no visual component at all, relying on text  http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/rg_elephantschild1.htm

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alone (e.g., ‘Roadmap for peace in the Middle East’, UN 2003). As another example, in the US educational sector a consistent interpretation of roadmapping has emerged in the context of access to college, and progress through college (e.g., Radcliffe et al. 2020). Although visual, such roadmaps have little in common with the kind of roadmap that is the focus of this chapter, in terms of organization (structure) and timeframe (long term). Such roadmaps are more closely related to process mapping than strategic planning, and often rely on overt metaphor (e.g., actual road maps, or board games). The generic roadmap structure is illustrated in Fig. 1.5a, based on the six fundamental questions of Why, What, How, When, Who and Where. This scalable architecture is enabled by the multilayer format, where greater granularity can be provided for key parts of the system, including the focus, while maintaining a whole-systems perspective, with the system scope defined by the totality of the roadmap structure. This facilitates ‘pan and zoom’ functionality, where if a particular issue of interest emerges the roadmap structure can be adjusted to the new focus, sustaining coherence through definition of the set of knowledge taxonomies associated with the multi-layered structure. Individual roadmaps can cover a tremendous ‘dynamic range’, in terms of the scale and complexity of the system (Phaal and Muller 2009). For example, a roadmap might include information from broad demographic trends down to specific component technologies. Complexity can be managed through establishing a nested family of roadmaps governed by this set of taxonomies, with horizontal and vertical links between roadmaps and elements. The structured roadmap canvas provides a general and consistent means for organizing relevant information according to type (Why, What, How and When), including internal and external system perspectives. This structure can be customized to purpose and context, with strategic information overlaid on the canvas and connected into a coherent narrative, within and between layers and timeframes (illustrated in Fig. 1.5b). The process of developing content is one of strategic planning, and any appropriate strategy process and framework can be used, positioned according to the roadmap structure (illustrated in Fig. 1.5c for various aspects of strategic planning). The question raised above about where the time dimension is in SWOT analysis is clarified here, as opportunities and threats at the top of the roadmap are offset to the right (future) compared to current strengths and weaknesses at the bottom of the roadmap, associated with response time, defining the slope/s of the pathway/s to value. A lot of the value of roadmapping lies in the process associated with developing roadmaps and utilization of the structured visual nature of the roadmap framework. In the Philips’ strategic innovation process presented in Fig. 1.6 (EIRMA 1997), roadmap creation is a distinct process step within their overall innovation process, which gives equal weight to both market (pull) and technology (push) considerations, integrating information into a coherent strategic plan. However, there is merit in utilizing the structure and taxonomies associated with roadmapping throughout such processes, to improve communication, information flows, and coherence within toolkits. Thus, the boundaries of roadmapping are not always clearcut, although it is unwise to label the entirety of such strategic planning

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Fig. 1.6  The boundaries of roadmapping can be blurred in strategic planning (adapted from EIRMA 1997)

Fig. 1.7 (a) Roadmapping process as a service to strategy and innovation, (b) integrating elements of strategic planning process, which can be overlaid on structured roadmap canvas

processes as ‘roadmapping’, which is better understood as a support process to strategy and innovation. As a service to core business processes (primarily strategy and innovation), roadmapping focuses on the use of the structured visual framework to support the activities in ‘client’ processes, as illustrated in Fig.  1.7a. Key alignment points are typically associated with decision ‘gates’, which provide the context for customization and design of roadmap structure and content, and roadmapping process. For example, Cooper (2006) has aligned technology and product development processes in his well-known stage-gate framework. In Fig.  1.7a, the client process is

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represented as a ‘funnel’, which is common in innovation management but also fits with strategy more generally, with this metaphor useful in terms of illustrating down-selection of ideas and options, and also the associated reduction in both commercial (demand side) and technical (supply side) uncertainty and risk. Conditions to the left and right of Fig. 1.7a are very different, with more exploratory (divergent) configurations of roadmapping (and other tools) appropriate at the ‘fuzzy’ front end of innovation and strategy processes, and more normative (convergent) configurations downstream to the right, focusing on implementation. Iterations are represented as a sequential series of diverging and converging phases, typical of such processes, at both macro level (defined by client process alignment points) and micro level (for example, workshop processes). Similar to Fig. 1.5c, it is useful to note that the various steps and tools associated with strategy and innovation processes can be mapped onto the roadmap canvas, as each part of the canvas is considered through the process, as illustrated in Fig.  1.7b. Here, the typical focus of strategy is highlighted, which tends to be in the middle of the roadmap (for example, the next version of a product), together with four process logics that contribute to this focus: market-pull vs technology push; and forecasting (from current position) vs backcasting (from future state). Roadmapping is in general agnostic to process, in the sense that it can support any process logic, which should fit the context and be considered as part of the design process. For example, market pull or technology push logics will lead to very different process flows across the roadmap canvas. All management tools have advantages and disadvantages, including roadmapping. Its strengths relate to alignment, integration and synchronization, as well as communication, as a visual method, in terms of both artefact (roadmap) and process (roadmapping). However, roadmapping is weak analytically, and so must in general be used in conjunction with other complementary tools. As demonstrated by Reeve’s et al. (Reeves et al. 2015), there is no shortage of strategy tools—in fact, the reverse is true, as such methods proliferate through the continuing productive endeavours of managers, consultants and academics. This is confusing for managers, in terms of selecting, combining and configuring toolkits for the particular context and purpose they have to deal with. Roadmapping is uniquely suitable for supporting the design and implementation of coherent toolkits (Kerr et  al. 2013b), given its holistic structured format, with most strategy tools relating to specific parts of the roadmap canvas, providing more focused and analytical support. Roadmaps form a natural ‘knowledge hub’ for toolkits, enabling the ‘big picture’ to be synthesized for review during each iteration. This is illustrated by the example of the LEGO Group (Kerr et al. 2017), for which the capability roadmap is central to the toolkit. The flexibility and power of roadmapping largely stem from its ability to align, integrate and synchronize activities and components within systems. In the next section, the general concept of ‘strategic fit’ is explored with reference to the general strategic management literature.

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1.3 Management Literature Revisited The functionality and flexibility of the roadmapping method were highlighted in Sect. 1.2, enabled by the structured visual format of roadmaps (see Fig. 1.3): 1. The visual nature of roadmaps supports communication within and between organizations, with the layers representing different key stakeholder views, reducing information asymmetries. 2. The structured nature of roadmaps supports hierarchical integration, functional alignment and temporal synchronization within the focal and wider system. In this section, management literature is reviewed from the perspective of ‘strategic fit’, to relate roadmapping to general management theory and practice.

1.3.1 Strategic Fit and Its Related Theories Strategic fit has been a core interest for business and management scholars for many years. The term ‘strategic fit’ has been used interchangeably with other terms such as ‘alignment’, ‘integration’, ‘bridge’, ‘harmony’, ‘fusion’ and ‘linkage’ (Avison et al. 2004). Previous studies have provided empirical evidence that strategic fit correlates with a competitive advantage, and in contrast, strategic misfit correlates to poor performance and potential firm failure (e.g., Fainshmidt et al. 2019; Murray and Kotabe 2005; Zajac et al. 2000). This chapter adopts Miles and Snow’s (1984) view of ‘strategic fit’ as both an organizational state and a process, defined as “the search for an organization form that is both internally and externally consistent”. This definition embraces both internal organizational fit and external environmental fit, which emerged from two prominent theories in strategic management literature as indicated in previous literature (e.g., Heracleous and Werres 2016; Voelpel et al. 2006): the resource-based view (RBV) and industrial organizational economics. • According to the resource-based view, firms create strategic fit with regard to their internal resources and capabilities (e.g., Barney 1991; Dierickx and Cool 1989; Wernerfelt 1984). For example, firms can possess resources that are valuable, rare, inimitable and supported organizational-wide to gain a competitive advantage. This approach with its emphasis on internal domains of strategic fit can be called an ‘inside-out’ fit. • From the perspective of industrial organizational economics, firms generate strategic fit in response to the external environment, such as customer demands and changing markets (e.g., Scherer and Ross 1990; Porter 1979). By extension, firms can analyse industrial structures and competitive dynamics to create barriers to entry to prevent new competitors. This approach related to external domains of strategic fit can be called an ‘outside-in’ fit.

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To date, several holistic practical frameworks have emerged that support strategic fit. From the mainstream strategic management literature, two representative frameworks have been identified: the McKinsey ‘7S’ framework (Waterman et al. 1980) and the ‘ESCO’ framework (Heracleous et al. 2009; Heracleous and Werres 2016), elaborated below. These frameworks place a strong emphasis on ‘elements of strategic fit’. In another stream of literature focusing particularly on information management, two additional relevant and influential frameworks have been identified: the Strategic Alignment Model (SAM) framework from Henderson and Venkatramen (1992), and the Amsterdam Information Model (AIM) framework from Maes et al. (2000), and extension of the SAM framework. This stream of literature emphasizes information technology (IT) functions with the focus on ‘processes of strategic fit’. These frameworks will be discussed in the following sections in terms of both the ‘elements of strategic fit’ and ‘processes of strategic fit’.

1.3.2 Elements of Strategic Fit 1.3.2.1 McKinsey 7S Framework Waterman et al. (1980) proposed and tested the 7S Framework in teaching and real-­ world cases for several years, focusing on internal strategic fit. Widely used by both researchers and practitioners, it has become one of the most prominent frameworks for strategic planning. The main argument is that organizational effectiveness depends on seven interrelated elements: structure, strategy, systems, style, skills, staff and superordinate goals, as shown in Fig. 1.8 and explained below. 1. Structure refers to the organizational structure of a firm, in terms of how it “divides tasks and then provides coordination” for each sub-unit, division or team with different responsibilities and accountability (Waterman et al. 1980). Types of firm structure include: centralization vs decentralization, specialization vs generalization and hierarchical vs flat. 2. Strategy is defined as “the way a company aims to improve its position vis-à-vis competition—perhaps through low-cost production or delivery, perhaps by providing better value to the customer, perhaps by achieving sales and service dominance” (Waterman et al. 1980). This element relates to the set of specific actions that lead to organizational change. 3. System represents “all the procedures, formal and informal, that make the organization go, day by day and year by year” (Waterman et  al. 1980). Examples include budgeting systems, accounting and finance procedures, and inventory management systems. This element does not necessarily involve any technologies or information systems. 4. Style focuses on the style of management of top-level managers. Given the huge influence of the role and limited time availability, a senior manager needs to

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Fig. 1.8  McKinsey 7S Framework (Waterman et al. 1980)

choose how to spend time. For example, “he can signal what’s on his mind; he can reinforce a message; he can nudge people’s thinking in the desired direction” (Waterman et al. 1980). This element has a direct and significant impact on a firm’s style and its culture. 5. Skill refers to the capabilities of a firm that are performed well. Notable examples of how skills have contributed to corporate success include “Du Pont’s research prowess, Procter & Gamble’s product management capability, ITT’s financial controls, Hewlett-Packard’s innovation and quality, and Texas Instruments’ project management” (Waterman et al. 1980). 6 . Staff is concerned with the management of people, including both ‘hard’ elements such as “appraisal systems, pay scales, formal training programs, and the like” and ‘soft’ elements such as “morale, attitude, motivation, and behavior” (Waterman et al. 1980). 7 . Superordinate goal is defined as “guiding concepts—a set of values and aspirations, often unwritten, that goes beyond the conventional formal statement of corporate objectives” (Waterman et al. 1980).

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As highlighted in Fig. 1.8, these seven elements are interlinked and can be closely related to each other. There sometimes is no clear line to distinguish each element. However, the key usage of this framework is to focus on all elements and their relationships that need to fit. If there is any change in a single element, other elements have to respond accordingly to that change, in order to maintain strategic fit. Waterman et al. (1980) concluded that “when all seven needles are all pointed the same way … you’re looking at an organized company”. 1.3.2.2 ESCO Framework The ESCO framework is another relevant framework for strategic fit within mainstream strategic management literature (Heracleous et  al. 2009; Heracleous and Werres 2016), focusing on external fit. It represents four key elements of strategic fit: environment, strategy, core competency, and organizational configuration, as shown in Fig. 1.9 and explained below. 1. Environment refers to environmental changes. This mostly relates to changes in external factors such as dynamic global competition, disruptive technologies, and emerging customer demands (Beer 2002). These environmental changes trigger a firm to adapt and change. 2. Strategy refers to strategic choices which should be clear in order to maintain firm profitability and competitive advantage. The nature of strategy is also constantly changing as a dynamic process, thus the regular adjustment of strategic Fig. 1.9 ESCO Framework (Heracleous et al. 2009; Heracleous and Werres 2016)

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choices to maintain strategic fit between environment and strategy is crucial (Porter 1991; Zajac et al. 2000). 3. Core competency relates to the resource-based view (RBV) theory (Barney 1991; Barney et al. 2001) that firms gain competitive advantage by developing their own resources and capabilities that are valuable, rare and inimitable. 4 . Organizational configuration comprises four sub-elements: process, people, structure, and culture. Process and structure are ‘hard’ factors and can be managed by activities such as initiating plans, setting up rules, and monitoring performance. In contrast, people and culture are ‘soft’ factors and can be managed by activities such as human resource management, leadership, and communication. Overall, these four sub-elements are indispensable organizational configurations for successful strategy implementation and need to be matched with core competency, strategy, and environment. Failure to do so will lead to strategic misfit within an organization.

1.3.3 Processes of Strategic Fit 1.3.3.1 SAM Framework The Strategic Alignment Model (SAM) framework, proposed by Henderson and Venkatraman (1993), is widely known and used, especially in information management. Due to the increasing impact of information technology, IT-related infrastructures and processes have emerged as a prominent function in business. Thus, the strategic fit of IT functions with business-level strategy and other functions has become critical. Compared to the 7S and ESCO frameworks, which focus on the elements of strategic fit, the SAM framework focuses on the processes of arriving at strategic fit, based on two dimensions: hierarchical fit and functional fit, as shown in Fig. 1.10a.

Fig. 1.10 (a) SAM Framework (Henderson and Venkatraman 1993), (b) Six types of business-IT fit proposed by Gerow et al. (2015)

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On the vertical axis, hierarchical fit entails the alignment between external and internal domains (Henderson and Venkatraman 1993). The ‘external’ or ‘high-level’ domain concerns external factors, such as competitors and industry, and involves high-level strategic decisions such as differentiation and partnership strategies. The ‘internal’ or ‘low-level’ domain concerns internal functions and involves low-level strategic decisions, including but not limited to production, new product development and marketing. In an extension to the SAM framework, called the Amsterdam Information Model (AIM) (Maes et  al. 2000), the internal domain was further divided into (infra) structural and operational levels. The structural level concerns factors, competencies and infra-structures overarching all functional areas within the same business or IT domain (Avison et al. 2004). On the horizontal axis, functional fit concerns alignment between business and IT domains. It focuses on “how choices made in the IT domain impact (enhance or threaten) those made in the business domain and vice versa” (Henderson and Venkatraman 1993). IT strategy both impacts and supports business strategy at a higher level, while IT infrastructure and processes both influence and assist organizational infrastructures and processes at a lower level. With this SAM framework, Henderson and Venkatraman (1993) argued that successful strategic fit cannot be achieved by hierarchical fit or functional fit alone. Multi- and cross-dimensional perspectives of fit must also be embraced. Gerow et al. (2015) further extended the SAM framework and completed a holistic view of the business-IT fit, consisting of six types of fit as shown in Fig. 1.10b: business, IT, Intellectual, functional, cross-domain (business strategy & IT function) and cross-­ domain (IT strategy & business function) fits. Apparently, the SAM framework demonstrated its strength and capability to observe the ‘logic’ of strategic fit (Avison et al. 2004). It also assists stakeholders to consider the drivers, roles of top management and performance criteria, for each type of strategic fit. Luftman and Brier (1999) proposed the concept of ‘strategic fit as a process’ combining the SAM framework with traditional strategic planning processes and provided a six-step approach for strategic fit: 1. Setting the strategic fit goals, to have clear and specific goals for strategic fit such as improving product offerings, increasing customer retention, or changing the competitive landscape. This step also includes asking for support from top-level managers and setting up a cross-domain team that will be responsible for the strategic fit. 2. Understanding the elements to be fitted, to determine the elements that should be fitted and their current and future states. This step provokes discussion on opportunities and problems that may arise. 3. Analysing the gaps between current and future states of each element identified in the second step to establish potential gaps. The projects that are fitted with the analysed gaps and identified goals are then prioritized. 4. Specifying the actions, to specify actions to be taken. For each project, it is crucial to have detailed action plans with specific objectives, tasks, responsible persons and timetables.

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5. Choosing evaluation criteria, to establish evaluation criteria for assessing success of the projects, which depend on the nature of each project. Common criteria include competitive sustainability, flexibility and financial value. 6. Sustaining strategic fit, to maintain the strategic fit. Achieving the strategic fit alone is difficult but it is more challenging to sustain the processes for strategic fit, for which company culture plays a huge role. This involves, but is not limited to, cultivating a culture of open communication, and building a strong trust between managers and operational workers.

1.4 Discussion In this section, the relationships between roadmapping (Sect. 1.2) and strategic fit (Sect. 1.3) are discussed, with the aims of strengthening the theoretical basis of roadmapping and exploring how roadmapping can address the challenges of strategic fit. Strategic fit and roadmapping are summarized in Table 1.1, in terms of the

Table 1.1  Overview of research contributions

Perspective Links to Technology Representative Frameworks

Foci

Strategic Fit (see Sect. 1.3) Mainstream strategic management practitioners and Information management scholars practitioners and scholars Not explicit or Information technology specific (treated as (IT) type of resource) • McKinsey 7S • Strategic Alignment framework Model (SAM) framework (Waterman et al. (Henderson and 1980) Venkatraman 1993) • ESCO framework • Amsterdam Information (Heracleous et al. Model (AIM) framework 2009; Heracleous (Maes et al. 2000) and Werres 2016) • Six types of strategic fit (Gerow et al. 2015) • Strategic fit as a process (Luftman and Brier 1999) Seven elements of Processes of strategic fit, strategic fit: based on two dimensions: Structure, Strategy, hierarchical fit and Systems, Style, functional fit. Skills, Staff and Superordinate goals (Waterman et al. 1980).

Roadmapping (see Sect. 1.2)

Engineering / technology management practitioners and scholars Any technology

• Multilayer time-based roadmap framework, building on systems thinking and dynamics (Phaal and Muller 2009).

Organization of strategic knowledge according to fundamental types: Why, What, How and When (such as Market, product and technology, and associated change).

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Table 1.2  McKinsey 7S strategic fit framework (Sect. 1.3.2.1) and roadmap/ping 7S strategic fit framework Structure

Strategy

System

Style

Skill

Staff

Superordinate goal

Roadmap (artefact) Organizational structure is explicitly incorporated into roadmap architecture (structure of individual roadmaps, and family of roadmaps). Content of roadmaps explicitly depict and communicate strategy and associated plans, expectations and dependencies. Organizational systems relate directly to both structure and content of roadmaps. Format and representation of roadmaps should be tailored to fit organizational and management style and culture.

Roadmapping (process) Roadmapping process aligns with relevant business processes that it supports, and their fit to organizational structure. Roadmapping process is a service to client strategic planning processes.

Organizational procedures relate directly to inputs and outputs of the roadmapping process. Format of roadmapping process should be tailored to fit organizational and management style and culture. The How layer of roadmaps explicitly Roadmapping processes involve organize and represent skills, inputs from relevant stakeholders, capabilities and other resources, and and their associated expertise and their relationships to other functions. knowledge. Roadmap structure aligns with Roadmapping is a participative stakeholder perspectives and the visual process, enabling the voice of all key nature of roadmaps support stakeholders to be accommodated, communication and consensus. building trust and consensus. Roadmap format and content style will Roadmap process approach will reflect superordinate goals implicitly reflect superordinate goals implicitly or explicitly. or explicitly.

perspective associated with their development, technological emphasis, key representative frameworks and focus. The various components of the McKinsey 7S, ESCO and SAM strategic fit frameworks discussed in Sect. 1.3 are summarized in Tables 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4, together with associated features of roadmaps (as artefact) and roadmapping (as process) that support strategic fit. The extensions to the SAM framework discussed in Sect. 1.3.3 (e.g., AIM and Fig. 1.10) are operational extensions to the high level SAM framework, which will be reflected in detailed roadmap structure and process design, and are thus not elaborated in Table 1.4. There are some overlaps between the strategic fit frameworks discussed above, as well as different emphases, which are reflected in the way roadmaps and roadmapping support strategic fit. Overall, the flexibility of both roadmap (structure and format) and roadmapping (process and activities) to adapt to the particular application context is clear from examination of Tables 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4, without any inherent conflict or incompatibility. The structure of roadmaps, and associated underlying dimensions represented within this structure, strongly support many core concepts of strategic fit, as elaborated below.

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Table 1.3  ESCO strategic fit framework (Sect. 1.3.2.2) and roadmap/ping ESCO strategic fit framework Environment

Strategy

Core competency

Organizational configuration

Roadmap (artefact) The Why layer of roadmaps explicitly organizes and represents the external environment, and how these trends and drivers impact on the organization and its internal functions and activities. Roadmaps depict strategy and associated plans, aspirations, decision points and options.

The How layer of roadmaps explicitly organizes and represents skills, capabilities and other resources (including core competences), and their relationships to other functions. Organizational structure is explicitly incorporated into roadmap architecture (structure of individual roadmaps, and family of roadmaps). Format and representation of roadmaps should be tailored to fit organizational and management culture and preferences of key stakeholders.

Roadmapping (process) Market, competitive and technology intelligence activities align with strategy information needs, and hence roadmapping process and roadmap content. Roadmapping as a service synchronizes with client processes such as strategy and innovation, with a cycle time that fits the rate of change in the environment and organization. Roadmapping processes involve inputs from relevant stakeholders, and their associated expertise and knowledge, as these pertain to core competences. Roadmapping process aligns with relevant business processes, and their fit to organizational structure. Roadmapping process should be tailored to fit the organizational and management culture and preferences of key stakeholders.

Roadmaps are typically two-dimensional diagrams, although there are actually three orthogonal dimensions incorporated into the structure, as illustrated in Fig. 1.11a (Vinayavekhin and Phaal 2019, 2020). Time is always an explicit dimension in roadmaps (the horizontal axis in Fig. 1.4), allowing for timing, sequencing and synchronization aspects of systems to be addressed. The three broad Why-­ What-­How layers (perspectives) relate to horizontal functional alignment within the system (e.g., ensuring that marketing and technology perspectives are both aligned with product strategy). The set of taxonomies that define the sub-layer structure within these broad functional categories represents system hierarchy, enabling vertical integration within the system (e.g., ensuring product strategy aligns with business or portfolio strategy). Thus, the vertical axis in Fig.  1.4 conflates two dimensions, with the roadmap a projection of this third dimension onto the two-­ dimensional map, and it is easy to forget about hierarchy, which is a key feature of systems. Although these concepts may seem quite abstract, they are what makes the roadmapping approach so powerful and flexible, as a universally applicable approach. Often these three dimensions are not explicit in strategy, and they provide a useful ‘checklist’ for addressing strategic problems in practice, as they pervade all aspects. Effective strategy development and deployment in complex systems are hampered by information asymmetries, communication inefficiencies, and conflict. The

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Table 1.4  SAM strategic fit framework (Sect. 1.3.3.1) and roadmap/ping SAM strategic fit framework Hierarchical fit

Roadmap (artefact) The ‘dynamic range’ of roadmaps can be large, in terms of the granularity of information represented. Strategic information is often organized and represented within a multi-layered structure, comprising hierarchical knowledge taxonomies. This directly supports hierarchical fit, within the scope of each roadmap, and as a nested family of roadmaps within the organization. Functional fit The broad Why-What-How layers of roadmaps directly relate to functions in the organization, such as marketing (Why) and technology (How). These must be aligned around value generating activities and systems (What) for success, balancing demand ‘pull’ and supply ‘push’ dynamics. Roadmaps support communication and consensus, reducing information asymmetries and conflict, and the inefficiencies that arise.

Roadmapping (process) Roadmapping as a service dovetails with its client processes (principally strategy and innovation), and so will support hierarchical fit in line with how client processes are configured hierarchically to support information flow vertically in the organization and focal system/s. Roadmapping is a participative process, enabling the voice of all key stakeholder groups and functions to be accommodated, to co-create roadmaps, building trust and consensus, and deepening commitment.

structure and visual nature of roadmaps provide an effective means for spanning these boundaries, building common understanding and consensus, and a reference point for moving forward in unity, addressing system alignment, integration and synchronization. The three dimensions discussed above (x  =  time; y  =  function; z  =  hierarchy) define three 2D planes, x–y, x–z and y–z: 1. Time vs Function (x–y) is the standard roadmap representation, with system hierarchy represented explicitly as part of the roadmap canvas as a set of nested taxonomic layers, or potentially included in metadata of roadmap objects. This view supports horizontal alignment and synchronization within the system, with hierarchical integration more implicit given the projection of the z dimension onto the x–y plane. 2. Time vs Hierarchy (x–z) is similar to the ‘nine windows’ framework in TRIZ, the structured creativity approach, “used to understand the problem of a technical system in terms of the context (or environment) in which it exists and the details of the parts within the system itself” (Ilevbare et al. 2013); and can be related to the engineering systems ‘V-model’, used to support top-down design and bottom-­up implementation (Sheffield 2005), and ‘W-model’ extension (Natterman and Anderl 2013). This view supports vertical integration and synchronization within the system.

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Fig. 1.11 (a) Three underpinning dimensions of strategy define (b) strategic scope and focus (‘strategy cube’), enabling resolution of (c) strategic ‘forces’, (d) dependences and (e) strategic narrative and synthesis

3. Function vs Hierarchy (y–z) is closely related to the ‘X-matrix’ used in the Japanese quality method Hoshin Kanri, which is a set of interlinking grids used to map dependencies between goals and actions within corporate systems, vertically and horizontally (Jackson 2006). This view supports integrated alignment within the system. The three strategic dimensions in Fig. 1.11a establish a 3×3×3 ‘strategy cube’ (Fig. 1.11b), which defines the strategic space (scope) relevant to the focal system, and from which data represented on a two-dimensional roadmap can be extracted. In terms of hierarchy, it should be noted that a single roadmap will contain multiple taxonomies, relevant to the kinds of knowledge represented. For example, part of the Why layer often represents market segments, which may have a geographic or demographic logic, whereas products are typically organized according to a functional logic, and technology according to knowledge disciplines. The strategy cube is somewhat similar to the framework proposed by Pretorius and de Wet (2000) for assessing new technology for manufacturing enterprises. Their framework incorporates the same three dimensions, but configured specifically for manufacturing

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enterprises: (1) Business cycle (time-based phases of marketing, product and process design, production, distribution and service); (2) Production functions (transformation, information, measurement and coordination); and (3) Hierarchy (unit, operations, organization and business). The distinction between global and local frames of reference is important, with a single external global viewpoint and set of taxonomies, enabling multiple local views with roadmaps configured accordingly. For example, product managers will require different views and structures to those of technology managers, and a roadmap configured for supply chain management will be different to one aimed at organizational development, whereas a CEO or investor may prefer the global frame of reference. Fig. 1.11b represents a local frame of reference pinned to the meso level, with the strategic focus associated with the central block in the strategy cube. The strategy cube provides a framework for strategic situational awareness, reminding us to consider: what is to the ‘left and right’ (e.g., how other functions in the organization are related, for alignment of commercial and technical decisions and actions in a new car product development, for example); ‘above and below’ (e.g., how the strategic plan for a new car integrates with wider transport infrastructure developments, and is impacted by supplier component developments); and temporal aspects of these (e.g., strengths and weakness, legacy issues and path dependencies, together with future aspirations, opportunities and threats). These factors define pull and push forces that act the system in different ways along the three key dimensions of strategy, as illustrated in Fig. 1.11c. The particular factors that affect the organization, together with strategic actions and decisions, are depicted as a network of connected objects on roadmaps, and it is helpful to consider these connections and dependencies according to the three fundamental dimensions, as illustrated in Fig. 1.11d. Finally, development of coherent roadmaps involves narrative synthesis. A roadmap is a ‘picture that tells a story’, and the communication requirements for a roadmap influence the structure, content and process for roadmap creation. As shown in Fig. 1.11e, thinking about narrative coherence along the three fundamental dimensions can be helpful, to ensure strategic plans link up horizontally and vertically in the system, and over time.

1.5 Conclusions Roadmapping emerged in technology-intensive US sectors more than 50 years ago but has not yet achieved recognition in mainstream business school research and teaching. Consequently, despite clear evidence of widespread and diverse application of roadmapping in industry, there is a lack of common standards and underpinning theory to explain and support its further development and adoption. This chapter has sought to address this gap, by relating the principles and practices of roadmapping to established strategic management literature, with specific reference to the concept of ‘strategic fit’. Section 1.2 provided an overview of roadmaps as artefacts and roadmapping as process, with several key frameworks for

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strategic fit identified and summarized in Sect. 1.3 (7S, ESCO and SAM). There is a strong and clear relationship between these frameworks and roadmap/ping, as discussed in Sect. 1.4, which can help to explain why roadmapping is such a demonstrably flexible and powerful management framework and tool for supporting strategic planning. In particular, three dimensions that define the structure of roadmaps enable its application to virtually any context, in terms of system focus and strategic need: 1. Horizontal functional alignment, commonly termed strategic alignment: ensuring that marketing and technology functions are aligned with product development, for example, which is a common source of miscommunication and conflict in innovation. 2. Vertical hierarchical integration, commonly termed strategic integration: ensuring that lower-level strategy and activities are coherent with higher-level strategy, such as product and business strategy. 3. Temporal synchronization, commonly termed strategic synchronization: ensuring that all components in the system (horizontal and vertical) mesh and march together in step—for example, so that technology is developed and matured in advance of product development, ready for application at the right time to meet commercial expectations. Although the concepts presented in this chapter (Fig.  1.11) are somewhat abstract, they have practical utility in terms of identifying three key dimensions that underpin a demonstrably practical, flexible and powerful method. This supports the coherent design and adaptation of the generic roadmapping method to virtually any strategic context, as the horizontal, vertical and temporal dimensions apply to all systems. Improving strategic alignment, integration and synchronization in complex business contexts can have a substantial impact on outcomes, reducing inefficiency and conflict within the system. While the systems and contexts managers face are often complex and ambiguous, the roadmapping method is rather simple in concept and accessible. An agile approach enables experiments to be conducted rapidly with modest effort, cost and risk to deliver quick wins in diagnostic or problem-solving modes, demonstrating its efficacy, enabling customization of the method to context as a learning process. This chapter has focused on one key area of management theory and practice: strategic fit, which relates to the flexibility and design of roadmapping, and can help to explain the demonstrable utility of the approach. Roadmapping can be readily related to other areas of management research and practice to good effect, such as knowledge management, change management, innovation management, design thinking and systems engineering. However, limited efforts have focused on this so far, and future research to do so would be beneficial. Combining fields of knowledge and practice can be mutually beneficial, in particular when linking established and robust management theory with methods of proven utility. This can help to bridge the divide between theory and practice that hinders progress in both, which is particularly important if we are to address the very substantial systems-of-systems challenges facing humanity in the twenty-first century.

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References Avison D, Jones J, Powell P, Wilson D (2004) Using and validating the strategic alignment model. J Strateg Inf Syst 13(3):223–246 Barney J (1991) Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. J Manag 17(1):99–120 Barney J, Wright M, Ketchen DJ (2001) The resource-based view of the firm: ten years after 1991. J Manag 27(6):625–641 Beer M (2002) Building organizational fitness in the 21st century. Division of Research, Harvard Business School Cooper RG (2006) Managing technology development projects. Research-Technology Management 49(6):23–31 Dierickx I, Cool K (1989) Asset stock accumulation and sustainability of competitive advantage. Manag Sci 35(12):1504–1511 EIRMA (1997) Technology roadmapping - delivering business vision, European Industry Research Management Association, Working Group Report No. 52, Paris Fainshmidt S, Wenger L, Pezeshkan A, Mallon MR (2019) When do dynamic capabilities lead to competitive advantage? The importance of strategic fit. J Manag Stud 56(4):758–787 Gerow JE, Thatcher JB, Grover V (2015) Six types of IT-business strategic alignment: an investigation of the constructs and their measurement. Eur J Inf Syst 24(5):465–491 Henderson JC, Venkatraman H (1993) Strategic alignment: leveraging information technology for transforming organizations. IBM Syst J 32(1):472–484 Henderson J, Venkatramen N (1992) Strategic alignment: a model for organizational transformation through information technology. In: Kochan T, Unseem M (eds) Transforming organisations. Oxford University Press, pp 97–116 Heracleous L, Werres K (2016) On the road to disaster: strategic misalignments and corporate failure. Long Range Plan 49(4):491–506 Heracleous L, Heracleous LT, Wirtz J, Pangarkar N (2009) Flying high in a competitive industry: secrets of the world’s leading airline. McGraw-Hill Education Ilevbare I, Probert D, Phaal R (2013) A review of TRIZ, and its benefits and challenges in practice. Technovation 33:30–37 Jackson TL (2006) Hoshin Kanri for the lean enterprise: developing competitive capabilities and managing profit. CRC Press (Taylor & Francis Group) Kerr C, Phaal R (2015) Visualizing roadmaps: a design-driven approach. Res Technol Manag 58(4):45–54 Kerr C, Phaal R (2020) Technology roadmapping: industrial roots, forgotten history and unknown origins. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 155:119967 Kerr C, Phaal R (2022) Roadmapping and roadmaps: definition and underpinning concepts. IEEE Trans Eng Manag 69(1):6–16 Kerr CIV, Phaal R, Probert DR (2013a) Roadmapping as a responsive mode to government policy: a goal-oriented approach to realising a vision. In: Moehrle MG, Isenmann R, Phaal R (eds) Technology roadmapping for strategy and innovation: charting the route to success. Springer, Berlin, pp 67–87 Kerr C, Farrukh C, Phaal R, Probert D (2013b) Key principles for developing industrially relevant strategic technology management toolkits. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80(6):1050–1070 Kerr C, Phaal R, Thams K (2017) Roadmapping as a platform for developing management toolkits: a collaborative design approach with the LEGO Group. 2017 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 1–11 Lee S, Park Y (2005) Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: overall process and detailed modules. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 72(5):567–583 Luftman J, Brier T (1999) Achieving and sustaining business-IT alignment. Calif Manag Rev 42(1):109–122 Maes R, Rijsenbrij D, Truijens O (2000) Redefining business-IT alignment through a unified framework. Van Amsterdam/Cap …. https://dare.uva.nl/document/2/16054

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Miles RE, Snow CC (1984) Fit, failure and the hall of fame. Calif Manag Rev 26(3):10–28 Murray JY, Kotabe M (2005) Performance implications of strategic fit between alliance attributes and alliance forms. J Bus Res 58(11):1525–1533 Natterman R, Anderl R (2013) The W-model - using systems engineering for adaptronics. Procedia Comput Sci 16:937–946 Park H, Phaal R, Ho J-Y, O’Sullivan E (2020) Twenty years of technology and strategic roadmapping research: a school of thought perspective. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 154:119965 Phaal R, Muller G (2009) An architectural framework for roadmapping: towards visual strategy. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 76(1):39–49 Phaal R, Farrukh C, Probert D (2004) Customizing roadmapping. Res Technol Manag 47(2):26–37 Phaal R, Simonse L, den Ouden E (2008) Next generation roadmapping for innovation planning. Int J Technol Intell Plan 4(2):135–152 Phaal R, Farrukh CJP, Probert DR (2009) Visualising strategy: a classification of graphical roadmap forms. Int J Technol Manag = Journal International de La Gestion Technologique 47(4):286–305 Phaal R, Farrukh CJP, Probert DR (2010). Roadmapping for strategy and innovation: aligning technology and markets in a dynamic world. http://publications.eng.cam.ac.uk/430808/ Phaal R, O’Sullivan E, Routley M, Ford S, Probert D (2011) A framework for mapping industrial emergence. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 78(2):217–230 Porter ME (1979) How competitive forces shape strategy. Harv Bus Rev 57(2):137–145 Porter ME (1991) Towards a dynamic theory of strategy. Strateg Manag J 12(S2):95–117 Pretorius MV, de Wet G (2000) A model for the assessment of new technology for the manufacturing enterprise. Technovation 20:3–10 Radcliffe JS, Aaron DK, Sterle J, von Keyserlingk MAG, Irlbeck N, Maquivar M, Wulster-Radcliffe M, Jones C (2020) Moving online: roadmap and long-term forecast. Anim Front 10(3):36–45 Reeves M, Haanaes K, Sinha JK (2015) Your strategy needs a strategy: how to choose and execute the right approach. Harvard Business Press Scherer FM, Ross DR (1990) Industrial market structure and economic performance. Houghton Mifflin Sheffield J (2005) Systemic knowledge and the V-model. Int J Bus Inf Syst 1(1/2):83–101 United Nations (2003) A performance-based roadmap to a permanent two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Vinayavekhin S, Phaal R (2019) Synchronization in strategic planning: a roadmapping framework. Int J Innov Technol Manag 16(06):1950044 Vinayavekhin S, Phaal R (2020) Improving synergy in strategic planning: enablers and synchronization assessment framework (SAF). Int J Innov Technol Manag 17(02):2050009 Vinayavekhin S, Thanamaitreejit T, Phaal R, Asatani K (2021) Emerging trends in roadmapping research: a bibliometric literature review. Tech Anal Strat Manag 1–15. https://doi.org/10.108 0/09537325.2021.1979210 Voelpel SC, Leibold M, Tekie EB (2006) Managing purposeful organizational misfit: exploring the nature of industry and organizational misfit to enable strategic change. J Chang Manag 6(3):257–276 Waterman RH Jr, Peters TJ, Phillips JR (1980) Structure is not organization. Bus Horiz 23(3):14–26 Wernerfelt B (1984) A resource-based view of the firm. Strateg Manag J 5(2):171–180 Zajac EJ, Kraatz MS, Bresser RKF (2000) Modeling the dynamics of strategic fit: a normative approach to strategic change. Strateg Manag J 21(4):429–453

Chapter 2

Technology Roadmaps as an Instrument for Operationalizing Innovation Strategies of Large Corporations Alexey Bereznoy and Alexander Snegirev

2.1 Introduction One of the key tasks in the corporate strategic management is to ensure the transition from a general long-term vision of a company’s development to a sequence of specific decisions and actions. Even a very good strategy is difficult to transform into a plan of concrete actions supported by the specific implementation schedule and budget. It is far more difficult to reconcile the strategy with day-to-day actual activities of corporate divisions and employees. Very often, they live separately— the strategy as an ideal vision of the future, and the current activities as a response to constantly emerging real issues, which tend to mount and overshadow the strategic priorities. In the context of the innovation strategy, the issues of operationalization become even more complicated. In this case, it is not only necessary to ensure a clear alignment of the company’s business strategy goals with the priorities of its innovative development but also to consistently correlate these priorities with the corporate innovation capabilities through the analysis of market trends. Moreover, this alignment should become the basis for a balanced portfolio of innovation projects, and further for elaboration and implementation of the integrated plan of innovation development, including fine-tuning of the relevant business processes, providing resources, and establishing appropriate controls and monitoring procedures. Despite the persistent interest of researchers and practitioners to technology roadmapping as a systematic approach to the development of new products and technologies (see, e.g., Phaal et al. 2010; Vishnevskiy et al. 2015; Arman et al. 2017; Park et al. 2020), the actual possibilities to use TRM as an instrument for implementing innovation strategies in a corporate context still remain the underexplored A. Bereznoy (*) · A. Snegirev ISSEK, HSE University, Moscow, Russia e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_2

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topic. It is no coincidence that the authors of one of the recent reviews of the quite extensive literature on TRMs noted a clear lack of studies “exploring the use and outcomes of TRM in corporate organizations” (Amati et al. 2020). To contribute into filling this gap, the authors of the present chapter set the twofold research question. First, what are the main issues that large companies typically face in the process of transition from the formulation of innovation strategies to their practical implementation? Second, how technology roadmaps are used to address these issues in actual corporate practices? To analyze the practical application of TRMs, we use examples of three major Russian companies. The first example is about implementation of the strategic objectives related to localization of high–tech subsea production equipment for a major oil and gas producer. The second one relates to the creation of perspective technology platforms for a large aircraft manufacturer. The third example is about development of the new products based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies for a major retail bank.

2.2 Difficulties in Translating Innovation Strategies into Execution Multiple international surveys of large companies’ experience in various industries demonstrated that the difficulties of implementing corporate strategies into operational activities continue to be one of the most acute issues of strategic management. Thus, according to the global multi-sector survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit, which covered 500 senior executives from companies with annual revenues of at least $ 1 billion, more than half (59%) of respondents admitted that their organizations “often struggle to bridge the gap between strategy development and its practical, day-to-day implementation.” On average, the companies failed to meet at least 20% of their strategic objectives due to poor strategy implementation (EIU 2017). A similar picture emerges from the surveys conducted by Bridges, the international consulting firm that makes regular assessments of companies’ performance in the area of strategy implementation. The last survey, conducted in 2020, came to the conclusion that only about half (52%) of the companies under review managed to bring their strategies to successful implementation, while the rest obviously failed (Bridges 2020). As for the implementation of innovation strategies, the situation is even worse. On the one hand, this stems from the very nature of the innovation processes, which by definition should be more creative and therefore belong to rather complicated activities for setting long-term goals. On the other hand, it is far less predictable and consequently much riskier field for the implementation of these goals. As reasonably noted by Payne (2019), “unlike other forms of strategy, innovation strategy straddles the provable, the plausible, and the merely possible. It requires levels of creativity, instinct, hunch and intelligent educated guessing that, for

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analytically-based organizations who built their cultures and reputations on solid provability, falls well outside the comfort zone, and arguably beyond the edge of competency.” The variety of difficulties that arise during the transition from the developed innovation strategy to its practical implementation at the operational level can be reduced to four main types of issues. These include, in particular, insufficient specification of strategic goals making them unfit for execution, difficulties in structuring of innovation projects within corporate strategic portfolio, blurring of responsibilities for innovation strategy implementation, and limited possibilities to control the activities of external partners in innovation projects (see Table 2.1). The issues of the first type arise when a company’s management attempts to turn their innovation strategy into a set of specific projects aimed at the development and implementation of innovations. Difficulties usually appear not only and not so much within the goal-setting process, under which the main guidelines of corporate innovative development should correspond to the projected technological trends in a respective industry and ensure the dynamic company growth and competitiveness. The main problems used to emerge when someone tries to make correct decomposition of strategic goals into the tasks of specific projects (often cross-functional), as well as further allocation of responsibilities for implementation of these projects among corporate functional units. Noteworthy, the project tasks should be ranked in terms of priority, coordinated on the timing, and have adequate resource support. The execution of strategic goals of innovative development presupposes the formation of a set of innovation projects mainly related to the development and implementation of new technologies and products (quite often, there is a need to implement a number of additional purely managerial projects that ensure adaptation of the organizational structure and business processes to new technological solutions). Taken together, the tasks of the innovation projects from corporate strategic portfolio should ensure the implementation of all the goals of the company’s innovation strategy.

Table 2.1  The main issues of the operationalization of corporate innovation strategies and their possible solutions Main issues 1 Insufficient specification of strategic goals making them unfit for execution 2 Difficulties in structuring innovation projects within corporate strategic portfolio 3 Blurring of responsibilities for implementation of innovation strategy 4 Limited capabilities to control the activities of external partners in innovation projects

Possible solutions Turning strategic goals into the tasks of specific innovation projects Prioritization of innovation projects based on transparent criteria Introducing clarity on the roles and responsibilities within innovation projects and monitoring of their current performance Improving transparency of external partners’ contribution into the performance of joint innovation projects

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It is worth noting that the creation of such project pool, as such, is far from being a trivial managerial task. This is mainly because it requires accurate fine-tuning and matching of the timeframes for the implementation of projects, ensuring the implementation of the outcomes obtained and helping their progress through all phases of the innovation chain (by building effective links between research, development, and implementation projects as consecutive phases of the innovation cycle). This implies taking into account both internal (for example, the readiness levels of technologies involved in achieving a specific strategic goal of innovative development) and external factors (above all, the possibility of using the scientific and technological potential of external partners). Difficulties in structuring innovation projects within corporate strategic portfolio represent another group of issues (of the second type). In this case, most difficult issues relate to the selection of priority projects that will be able to fulfil the goals of corporate innovation strategy fully and effectively. This is not only about ensuring the correct order of development and implementation of interrelated innovations, whose sequence is determined by the direct dependence of the starting basis for some innovation projects from the results achieved at the other projects. Another source of these difficulties frequently emerges when structuring of project portfolio is combined with solving a well-known managerial task of allocating scarce resources. The latter often generates many contradictions between different corporate divisions due to vague criteria for prioritizing of innovation projects. On the one hand, financial resources needed to deliver such projects are usually extracted from consolidated budget of a company, and that might easily bring about multiple conflicts of interest of various functional divisions. On the other hand, intra-firm competition for resources can become even more intense in the course of actual allocation of corporate funds on innovative activities: between similar projects, between perspective areas of technological (or product) development based on the results of previous innovation projects, etc. This internal rivalry can lead to many technological crossroads (forks) requiring very accurate decision-making. Besides, under the process of implementation of individual innovation projects, that most often involve participants from different corporate divisions, the emerging issues frequently relate to proportional distribution of financing assigned for the project. In some cases, it also involves allocation of other scarce resources, including qualified professionals, specialized equipment and materials, etc. The transition from innovation strategy to its execution at the level of operational management is seriously hampered by the blurring of responsibility for strategy implementation, which falls in a separate group of issues (of the third type). The emergence of such issues is closely connected with the cross-functional nature of many innovation projects, usually requiring the participation of various corporate divisions. The need for joint work on project implementation to achieve common strategic goals of corporate innovation development (as a single organization) often comes into contradiction with the traditionally rigid organizational structure typical for most large corporations. Together with the complicated tasks of coordinating allocation, subordination, and regular updates of innovation projects and their resource support, these elements of daily management routine represent adjacent

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group of issues that have very significant consequences at the level of strategic management. Finally, the issues of the fourth type are related to the natural limitations of the companies’ capabilities to fulfil the strategic goals of innovative development on their own. In today’s world, even the largest corporations often lack sufficient potential to implement innovation projects for the development and implementation of new technologies and products, usually requiring serious competencies in multiple areas (often being very far from the core competencies of the company). To solve these complicated tasks, companies are increasingly attracting partners through various mechanisms of open innovation (OI). The spread of such mechanisms became one of the most important trends that significantly changed the entire technological landscape of most sectors of today’s economy. In general, open innovation is about fundamental expansion of the companies’ innovative activities beyond the boundaries of corporate organization through building a network of partnerships with other innovation actors. The latter may include a variety of high-tech firms (from technology giants to small start-ups), specialized research centers, and universities willing to engage in long-term cooperation in joint R&D and implementation of innovation projects. The main reasons for the transition of large companies to the widespread use of OI model are associated with significant changes taking place within and around the innovation sphere as a whole. First, the significant complication and corresponding rise in the cost of already extremely expensive innovation projects increasingly make them “unaffordable” even for the largest corporations. This naturally strengthens their propensity to share increased costs and risks with external partners. Second, the sharp acceleration of new technologies development compared to the situation, observed even 15–20  years ago, significantly increases the requirements for corporate technological competitiveness. It forces companies to rapidly increase their capabilities in the field of generation and commercialization of new knowledge and technologies, especially in terms of reducing the time and cost of implementing innovation projects. In many cases, the only effective solution is to take the path of R&D and technological cooperation with external partners based on open innovation model. Though within the last two decades OI discourse has gained extraordinary popularity among researchers and has become the subject of hundreds of academic publications (see, e.g., Hossain et al. 2016; da Silva Meireles et al. 2022), most of them focus on the analysis of OI mechanisms and benefits for the development of companies’ innovative potential. Much fewer papers touch the difficulties and risks associated with attracting external partners into R&D and technological cooperation, especially in the context of implementing the goals of the corporate innovation strategy. However, despite all the benefits of using OI model, its widespread implementation creates numerous and quite serious issues for companies. Some of these issues are fundamental, meaning that they can entirely block joint innovation activities with external partners (or make them impractical). Such issues, for instance, may include: the lack of financial resources needed for development of innovative

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cooperation, unwillingness to bear the risks associated with the “opening” of internal innovation processes to external partners (including legal issues of intellectual property protection), inability to determine strategic balance between open and in-­ house innovations, low level of absorptive capacity for effective assimilation of external knowledge, etc. Not less common are organizational issues, primarily related to the limited capabilities of a company to establish reasonable control over the activities of innovation partners. Such issues start from the difficulties to select the appropriate partners and to ensure clear coordination of their work within the strategic portfolio of innovation projects. They could further extend to establishing effective monitoring of partners’ project performance along with assessing their contribution into project outcomes. It is exactly in these organizational areas where TRMs could be effective as a tool for operationalizing innovation strategies. Some TRM researchers have already noted the solid potential of roadmapping in bridging the gap between strategy and its implementation (Amati et al. 2020; Hirose et al. 2022a; Hirose et al. 2022b). In this capacity, roadmaps are clearly starting to occupy a special place in the hierarchy of corporate innovation management, providing a mechanism for transferring management impulses from the upper strategic management level to the lower operational level (see Fig. 2.1). According to a reasonable assessment of Heim et al. (2017), “an effective technology road map links corporate strategy with portfolio management and project execution.” At the same time, a number of important questions still remain, including the following: how this link works in real corporate practice of innovation strategies’ operationalization, what issues of transition from strategy to implementation can be

Fig. 2.1  TRM in the hierarchy of corporate innovation management

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solved with the help of TRMs, and how the use of roadmapping is connected with portfolio management of innovation projects.

2.3 Technology Roadmaps Addressing Challenges of the Innovation Strategy Implementation 2.3.1 Turning Strategic Goals into the Tasks of Innovation Projects A well-developed corporate strategy is always a rather complex document. It must not only provide a set of goals for the company’s long-term development but also include a very detailed justification of why these goals are the best choice among other alternatives and, most importantly, how these goals should be delivered. This inherent complexity obviously contradicts with the needs of practical implementation, which on the contrary presumes formulation of relatively simple and clear tasks. As this dilemma was aptly reflected by Sull et al. (2018), “Describing strategy favors complexity, but executing it requires simplicity. To influence day-to-day activities, strategies need to be simple enough for leaders at every level of the organization to understand, communicate, and remember them.” With regard to innovation strategy, the first step toward overcoming this complexity is to decompose strategic goals of innovative development into a small number of key priorities. Defining a limited range of such priorities, corporate management usually focus on action-oriented medium-term tasks in the field of innovation, which are considered as critical for the competitive success of the entire organization in the next 5–7 years. The second step involves specifying key priorities and bringing them to a level sufficient for transformation into the tasks of innovation projects ready for consistent implementation by means of operational management. Quite often, the logic of this approach could be easily seen from the configuration of the TRM itself. A good example is the roadmap for the development of local technologies of subsea production used by a major Russian oil and gas company (see Fig. 2.2). First, the developers of this TRM made decomposition of one of the goals of corporate innovation strategy (related to the development and implementation of local subsea production technologies) into a number of strategic priorities. The priorities focused on the development of the most critical elements of subsea production systems for localization. After that, based on these strategic priorities, they constructed a number of portfolios of innovation projects. Noteworthy, each project portfolio was aimed at creating one of the selected subsea production elements (such as electrical control system, subsea booster compressor station, subsea robotic repair system, etc.), and each of the projects (from individual portfolio) was focused on developing one of the key technologies by local developers. In this case, it is very characteristic that the visual configuration of the TRM clearly reflected both

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Внешняя среда: тренды, риски и возможности развития

Business environment: Trends, risks and opportuni es

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Fig. 2.2  General architecture of the roadmap for the development of local technologies of subsea production (developed by a major Russian oil and gas company)

high-level priorities arising from respective strategic goals of corporate innovative development and the logical connections of these priorities with specific projects focused on the development of key technologies.

2.3.2 Prioritization of Innovation Projects Based on Transparent Criteria As soon as the corporate innovation strategy is transmitted to the operational level in the form of a portfolio of specific innovation projects, a number of difficult tasks arise related to the portfolio management. Among these tasks, the issue of prioritizing projects immediately comes to the fore. In essence, it is about making decisions on preferential treatment of individual projects, primarily in terms of resources. Although prioritization is a fairly routine task within the framework of the theory and practice of portfolio management, when it comes to innovation projects addressing this issue often presents considerable difficulties. Their main source of these difficulties is connected with the high uncertainty of potential costs and outcomes. As reasonably noted by Nicols (2019), “For those who lead the innovation strategy,

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the biggest challenge is to have a tool that allows distinguishing the relative importance of each project in order to prioritize its implementation.” The need for innovation projects’ prioritization may originate from at least two very different reasons depending on the strategic goals that have been formulated in a particular area of innovation activities. On the one hand, this need may be connected with arranging the “correct” sequence of project implementation. It appears when a particular innovation project simply cannot start without getting significant results from other related projects (e.g., without achieving high readiness levels of other key technologies that could be obtained through implementation of related R&D projects). In this case, the obvious rational for prioritizing innovation projects relates to their technological interdependence (that determine a certain order of their implementation). On the other hand, in many cases, the need for prioritization is dictated by the more familiar (for portfolio management) tasks of selecting the most perspective projects (in terms of market trends, available R&D groundwork, technological resources and competencies, etc.) under the conditions of scarce resources for their implementation. It is quite remarkable that technology roadmaps can be effectively used to address both issues. Thus, the abovementioned TRM developed by the Russian major oil and gas company (see Fig. 2.2) presupposed different time horizons for the implementation of innovation projects. The TRM timeline layer reflected different points of R&D projects’ initiation taking into account the need to coordinate the achievement of high readiness levels for certain technologies (TRLs) with the start of the development of others (having some important characteristics that largely depend on TRLs of the others). In the case of the TRM developed by the large Russian aircraft manufacturer, the purpose of the roadmapping process was quite different. It was about the development of roadmaps for the creation of a number of prospective technology platforms for aircraft manufacturing. The main idea behind this work was to develop a set of civil aircraft concepts (based on the technological platforms) that could be highly competitive and meet various requirements of key market actors in the next 15 years in accordance with the preliminary industry forecasts (see Fig. 2.3). In this case, the process of prioritization of technology platforms (and, accordingly, the selection of priority projects for the development of technologies integrated into the platforms) followed a standard portfolio management approach. Consequently, it was based on a set of carefully selected financial (e.g., cost-to-­ income ratio) and non-financial criteria (opening new market opportunities).

2.3.3 Introducing Clarity on the Roles and Responsibilities Within Innovation Projects After building strategic portfolio of innovation projects and its structuring (based on prioritization), the next most important step in the operationalization of the innovation strategy is the creation of working mechanisms for current management of individual projects included in the strategic portfolio. In order to work effectively, these mechanisms should meet a number of requirements. First of all, they should

Secon 5. Aircra concepts based on the technology plaorm

Secon 4. Target characteriscs of the technology plaorm

Secon 3. Technology development plan by TRL phases

Fig. 2.3  Configuration of one of the roadmaps for the creation of prospective technology platforms for aircraft manufacturing (developed by a large Russian aircraft company)

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Secon 1. Key technologies

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provide a complete representation of all project works, structured by stages of their implementation, establishing clear roles and responsibilities among all project participants and ensuring transparency of current performance through project implementation process (by each participant and for project portfolio as a whole). As the experience of large Russian companies shows, technology roadmaps can serve as an excellent tool to support the mechanisms of the current management of innovation projects included in the corporate strategic portfolio. One of the core layers in TRMs of all the selected companies is a section reflecting timeline for the development of key technologies (products) in the format of a bar chart (see Fig. 2.2, 2.3, and 2.4). The process of developing each of the key technologies (innovative products) is reflected on the roadmaps as an individual project structured according to the successive stages of its implementation. Noteworthy, the achievement of respective technology readiness levels (TRLs) served as the checkpoints (milestones) for monitoring the completion of project stages. Such visualization of the portfolio of innovation projects provides roadmaps with a number of important features that are critical for effective operational management. These features include, in particular, a structured representation of a complex management object as a whole. Innovation projects in most cases include a wide variety of different kinds of work with different participants. These works with multiple and complex tasks taken together should lead to the implementation of the corporate innovation strategy goals. Visual representation of these projects in the format of a bar chart could help project managers in putting these multiple pieces together and realizing their own place in the overall process of the company’s innovative development. It significantly enhances the managers’ commitment to common goals and strengthens a sense of responsibility for their contribution into overall innovation performance. Another valuable feature of TRM visual presentation of innovation projects is the transparency of task allocation among individual projects and the ability to observe everything what is happening with the projects in one single place through tracking the progress of each project by milestones (checkpoints). This allows not only project managers but also team members to hold each other accountable for current performance. Finally, one more benefit of TRM visualization of innovation project performance relates to the opportunities for more effective time management and resource allocation. In today’s world markets, technologies, customer buying habits, and competitor behavior change very quickly. Corporate TRMs with proper design allow to simultaneously maintain adherence to the strategic priorities “while making periodic corrections or adjustments based on changing market conditions, project variances, strategic pivots or other significant new information” (Sobelman 2018). On the one hand, getting a big-picture view of the overall progress of innovation projects considerably facilitates allocation of time for project managers to complete specific tasks and thereby reduces the risks of deadline failures. On the other hand, visualizing the current performance of all innovation projects allows project managers to make more focused decisions regarding the use of specific project resources. By obtaining this information, project managers can easily track where and how the resources are used and make appropriate resource adjustments.

Fig. 2.4  Visual representation of the roadmap for the development of new products and services based on AI technologies (developed by a major Russian retail bank)

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2.3.4 Improving Transparency of External Partners’ Contribution in the Performance of Joint Innovation Projects The implementation of the corporate strategic portfolio of innovation projects often requires involvement of various external partners based on open innovation mechanisms. By providing access to a variety of external sources of new knowledge, such mechanisms can create massive opportunities to strengthen the company’s abilities to adapt quickly to fast-changing business environment. In today’s conditions of radical shifts between and inside industrial sectors, this may become a decisive factor of market success. At the same time, the transition to the wide use of various types of partnerships with external participants aimed at implementation of corporate innovation strategy goals has posed a number of difficult challenges for large companies. These issues relate mainly to the organizational aspects of the companies’ innovation activities. To begin with, the very identification of appropriate external partners for innovative cooperation frequently presents serious issues. Integration of external participants into the company’s innovation projects has proved to be even more difficult. Finally, a separate problem is the assessment of current performance of these participants within joint innovation projects. It is quite notable that major Russian companies are increasingly applying TRMs as an instrument to address these issues. In particular, to create domestic subsea production systems, the Russian oil and gas company had to initiate the development and subsequent manufacturing of a wide range of new special equipment that was never been produced in Russia. In this case, the involvement of local partners (from non-core industries for the oil and gas company) was inevitable. Faced with the challenge of identifying appropriate domestic developers (with necessary competencies) for key subsea production technologies, the company CEOs decided to use TRM planning capabilities to coordinate the search for external partners and the development of key technologies. As a result, the new design of integrated roadmap provided a visual representation of both processes (search for local R&D partners and technology development involving these partners) in a single format convenient for their coordination (see Fig. 2.5). In the case of a Russian aircraft company, the roadmaps clearly reflected, which of the key technologies will be developed: (1) by the company itself, (2) by third-­ party organizations on a contract basis (e.g., engines, on-board communication systems), and (3) through joint innovation projects with external partners (e.g., automated control systems). The TRMs also reflected the risk assessments of individual innovation projects depending on the scale of participation of external partners (the more project work fell on an external participants, the higher risk was attributed to the project, all other things being equal). Russian retail bank from the very beginning considered the roadmap for the development of new AI-based products as one of the instruments to create the innovation ecosystem involving a variety of participants working with artificial

Fig. 2.5  The integrated roadmap used by a major Russian oil and gas company to coordinate the processes of developing key components for subsea production systems and selecting external R&D partners

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intelligence technologies—Internet platforms, specialized IT firms, intermediary companies, etc. To fulfill this strategic objective, a special section was included in the TRM serving as a sort of management dashboard to monitor the project performance of external partners including current assessment of their impact on revenue growth and cost reduction.

2.4 Conclusions Our analysis of the experience of large Russian companies with technology roadmapping through the lens of TRM application as an instrument for innovation strategies operationalization proved to be a rather productive approach leading to a number of substantial conclusions. In particular, our analysis shows that, acting as a link between innovation strategies and operational management, TRM can be effectively combined with portfolio management tools for innovation projects and, in this capacity, provide solutions to a number of key issues that hamper transition from strategy to its practical implementation. In particular, TRM can help to transform strategic goals into the tasks of innovation projects, to ensure accurate prioritization of these projects based on transparent criteria, introduce clarity on the roles and responsibilities within innovation projects, and to improve transparency of external partners’ contribution in the performance of joint innovation projects. In general, the most important benefits of TRMs as a tool for operationalization of innovation strategies include: • Better clarity and specificity of company’s strategic goals in the area of innovation development at all levels of the managerial hierarchy • Ability to integrate a variety of innovation processes taking place within a company and to focus them on the right direction by creating a common visual image of these processes and built-in coordination mechanisms • More effective and flexible control over the implementation of innovation strategy based on careful monitoring of the portfolio of innovation projects Finally, another essential benefit of TRMs consists in their ability to overcome organizational silos within companies. In a typical situation of internal organizational fragmentation of today’s large companies, where individual divisions deal only with strictly limited functional areas, TRMs can form the basis of coordinated project management. At the same time, such an approach to portfolio management goes far beyond the scope of specific projects, and that is fundamentally important for the effective innovation activities in any company. This implies particular significance of ensuring the full-scale involvement of the broad layers of corporate managers in the process of developing TRMs and their practical implementation.

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References Amati G, Motta V, Vecchiato R (2020) Roadmapping for innovation management: evidence from Pirelli. R&D Manag 50(4):462–477 Arman H, Gindy N, Kabli M, Cavin S (2017) R&D portfolio management: integrated technology roadmapping tool to aid the decision-making of R&D investments. In: Daim T (ed) Managing technological innovation. World Scientific, pp 173–194 Bridges (2020) 20-year results from surveying strategy implementation. https://www. bridgesconsultancy.com/wp-­content/uploads/2016/10/20-­Years-­of-­Strategy-­Implementation-­ Research-­2.pdf da Silva Meireles FR, Azevedo AC, Boaventura JMG (2022) Open innovation and collaboration: a systematic literature review. J Eng Technol Manag 65, July–September. doi:https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jengtecman.2022.101702 EIU (2017) Closing the gap: designing and delivering a strategy that works. Report https://www. brightline.org/resources/eiu-­report/ Heim U, Heuss R, Katzir T (2017) Building an integrated technology road map to drive successful innovation. McKinsey Quarterly, February 21. https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/ operations/our-­insights/building-­an-­integrated-­technology-­road-­map-­to-­drive-­successful-­ innovation Hirose Y, Phaal R, Farrukh C, Gerdsri N, Lee S (2022a) Sustaining organizational roadmapping – lessons learned from Subsea 7. Res Technol Manag 65(3):50–57 Hirose Y, Phaal R, Farrukh C, Gerdsri N, Lee S, Yamaoka H (2022b) Kick-starting roadmapping implementation in corporate settings: lessons learned from IHI Corporation. Int J Innov Technol Manag. https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S0219877022500390 Hossain MHM, Zahidul Islam KM, Abu Sayeed M, Kauranen I (2016) A comprehensive review of open innovation literature. J Sci Technol Policy Manag 7(1):2–25 Nicols JP (2019) Portfolio prioritization of innovation projects. https://www.itmplatform.com/en/ blog/portfolio-­prioritization-­of-­innovation-­projects/ Park H, Phaal R, Ho JY, O’Sullivan E (2020) Twenty years of technology and strategic roadmapping research: a school of thought perspective. Technol Forecast Soc Change 154(May). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119965 Payne M (2019) Why innovation strategy is horribly broken, and what to do about it. https://www. frog.co/designmind/innovation-­strategy-­horribly-­broken Phaal R, Farrukh CJP, Probert D (2010) Roadmapping for strategy and innovation. Aligning technology and markets in a dynamic world. Cambridge University, Cambridge Sobelman N (2018) Innovation portfolio management: the link between strategy and execution. https://nsobelman.medium.com/innovation-­portfolio-­management-­the-­link-­between-­strategy-­ and-­execution-­8c6f63a80d6f Sull D, Turconi S, Sull C and Yoder J (2018) Turning strategy into results. MIT, Sloan Management Review, Spring. https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/turning-­strategy-­into-­results/ Vishnevskiy K, Karasev O, Meissner D (2015) Integrated roadmaps and corporate foresight as tools of innovation management: the case of Russian companies. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 90(Part B):433–443

Chapter 3

Technology Roadmapping: KPI Management Process Amalishiya Robert and Tugrul Daim

3.1 Introduction Business Intelligence (BI) enables the organization in better decision-making. BI has cross functional collaboration with several teams within the organization. They have extensive knowledge on customers, competitors, environment, operations and organization process due to their wide collaboration across the company. This makes BI and its activities significant in any organization. BI tends to be futuristic in its work processes and technologies. This also enable them to extract educational information from the available data pool and provide useful insights to the business steering (Seify 2010). Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted —Albert Einstein

Businesses are required to change their operating models as market and market needs constantly change. This implies creation of new strategies and new targets by the company. To monitor if these changes in strategies and targets are met and are actually accommodating the changes in the market, it is essential to measure the performance of the implemented changes in operation. Key Performance Indicators (KPI) are one of the most used techniques of measuring the performance of a company (Louise 2016). The targets are measured through KPIs. BI with its data savviness could play a crucial role in measuring the KPIs. BI by default works on a powerful data foundation or at the very least has access to such

A. Robert Technical University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany T. Daim (*) Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_3

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rich data bases. BI can not only help KPI stakeholders get hold on data at the right time, but there is also potential to increase the quality of the information provided. It is therefore important to invest in the infrastructure of BI systems in the current age (Seify 2010). In an attempt to identify the potential of the BI team at New Work SE in KPI management, this thesis work is attempted. In the following sections, current KPI management at the company, expected process changes and the gaps to be filled are identified and discussed in detail.

3.1.1 New Work SE For a better working life

New Work acts as a liaison between employers and employees. It facilitates employers to find the right candidate for their organizations and helps employees as well to find a fitting firm to match their skills and expectations. New Work ensures both the employees are happier as well as the employers become more successful. Consequently, New Work works on products and solutions that help in realizing this great vision. New Work has several business units carrying out different business operations and it has acquired other companies as well. The business units are named the following, Lime, Berry, Purple, Yellow and Black. Companies acquired by New Work are Kununu, Honeypot, Internations and Prescreen. In the following section, business operations of a few business units are discussed briefly to assist further understanding of this project (New Work SE n.d.). 3.1.1.1 Petrol Departments such as Human Resource (HR), Real Estate Operations (REO) and Procurement, Accounting, Controlling, Legal, internal IT come under this business unit. Since these departments act as central units and do major operations of the company, New Work ideally cannot exist without them. Hence, Petrol is considered as the core of the New Work universe. 3.1.1.2 Lime The Lime unit is responsible for the Xing platform itself. Xing is a huge online business networking platform. It is where employers advertise their vacancies and employees look for jobs. The platform remains a reflection of the latest employment market trend. Xing exists both as an app and in the web version. Main responsibility of Lime is to keep the platform up and running.

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3.1.1.3 Berry Berry deals with E-Recruiting. It provides companies with products, solutions and reports that enables them to find the right pool of employees for their organization. It also supports the clients in enhancing their branding portfolio so that it increases awareness of the company among the employee market. 3.1.1.4 Purple Purple constitutes Xing Marketing Solutions. From the available and accessible user data, business clients are suggested specific target groups and effective marketing strategies. Purple provides support in identifying the purchasing incentives of the users. With all the right information, clients are enabled to reach the accurate target customers without advertising wastage. 3.1.1.5 Yellow Xing Events is managed under the Yellow business unit. Yellow assists in organizing online and offline events. It enables clients to create targeted promotions. 3.1.1.6 Kununu New Work’s vision is ‘for a better working life’. One of the important aspects of this vision is creating transparency of employers to employees. Through the Kununu platform, it is possible to find reviews of the companies and acquire salary information as well. The platform also provides a reflection of the company culture and values and the employee perspective of the company. Instead of reaching out to companies blindfolded, it creates a safe and secure process for the applicants.

3.1.2 Need for KPI Management Analysis In the following section, reasons for carrying out thesis work on this particular topic is discussed in detail. An analysis of the topics below is made. • Status quo of KPI Management at New Work SE • Industry trend • Expectations of KPI stakeholders Post analysis of the delta among the above areas, the objective of the thesis is defined.

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3.1.2.1 KPI Management KPIs assist in determining the health of the business operations. This calls for special care in KPI management. If KPI definitions are not in alignment with all stakeholders, it is not possible to measure the results with unanimity. If KPIs are not linked to goals, it creates misunderstanding and chaos among the KPI users. If KPIs are not maintained, it might lose its relevance in terms of the target that it is measuring or it might even become obsolete. If the data source for the KPIs are not scrutinized enough, it leads to unreliability of the KPI numbers. It also creates difficulties in further validation processes. Unclear, poor or no documentation of KPIs causes knowledge loss and prevents knowledge sharing with interested stakeholders. It generates dependencies on the KPI owners. There are quite a lot of reasons similar to the ones discussed above which reiterates the importance of KPI management. S.M.A.R.T KPI SMART acronym is a business term often used to set qualities to objectives. SMART stands for specific, measurable, assignable, realistic and time related (Brudan 2010). SMART- ness is expected to be an inherent quality of a KPI. • Specific—The KPI has to be specific, i.e. it has to be assigned to a specific work area/objective. • Measurable—It should be possible to measure the KPI. • Assignable—KPI ownership is defined here. Without defining ownership, the KPI will become meaningless. • Realistic—The KPI should be able to measure a realistic target. • Time-related—Time frame/time relevance of the KPI. KPI Documentation Template According to Bernard, the following parameters are important to be documented for any KPI.  The first few parameters are there to understand the fundamentals of a KPI. Questions such as, what is the KPI measuring? who is the KPI consumer? are considered essential to be answered. The other parameters are documented to evaluate the smartness of a KPI (Marr n.d.). Strategic Goal This parameter communicates the relevancy of the KPI.  Every KPI is created to measure a goal. It is important that every KPI is tagged to the intended goal so that it is clear for the reader to understand the existence and relevance of the KPI (Marr n.d.).

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Audience and Access Every KPI has a target audience. It can be analysts, product owners, board of directors, marketing or sales team. Based on the target audience, KPI maintenance measures might change and that is why it is important to establish the audience of a KPI (Marr n.d.). Key Performance Question (KPQ) We understand that every KPI is linked to a strategic goal. There is a key performance question that every KPI answers which helps to understand the strategic goal. For example, the strategic goal is set to increasing customer growth. Now, customer growth can be measured from different perspectives. The one key perspective that the particular KPI helps to measure is registered under key performance question (Marr n.d.). How Will and Won’t This Indicator Be Used? It is important to understand what exactly the KPI is used to measure. For example, an increase in revenue does not necessarily mean an increase in customer base. It can also mean that the same customer base made more purchases in that quarter. Here it is important to indicate this relevant information regarding the KPI. That is why it is crucial to document what the KPI measures and what information cannot be derived from the same KPI. This gives a clear picture of the intended effects of the KPI and hence would avoid misunderstanding and irrelevant decision-making (Marr n.d.). Indicator Name All KPIs need a comprehensible name. Sometimes KPIs are named shortly to avoid lengthy names. This might lead to misunderstanding (Marr n.d.). Data Collection Method It is vital to have a clear picture of the data flow for a KPI. Because if there is a change in the KPI calculation or if there is an anomaly in the KPI numbers, only if information on the data source is available, it is possible to drill down and identify the source of error. If no such information is recorded, it is time consuming to find where the data comes from. There are also chances that self-exploration might lead to the wrong data source. Also, if there are ad hoc requests to perform validation on a KPI, information on data source is necessary without which it will lead to undesirable results which are discussed above. This is why it is significant to document the source of data for every KPI. This also establishes the reliability and validity of the data (Marr n.d.).

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Assessment/Formula/Scale Criteria KPI calculations involve some formula or querying that fetch data from a database. A documentation of this information will assist in understanding how the KPI is calculated. It also helps to make any changes to the calculation if there comes a necessity. If there is no documentation on this, it will create redundant work leading to wasteful resources in terms of time, employee work hours, etc., (Marr n.d.). Targets and Performance Thresholds When a KPI is created to measure a strategic goal, a threshold or benchmark is established as well. For example, to measure customer growth, a target of 30% increase or a lower threshold of −5% is agreed. It is then beneficial to write down those agreed values so that any anomaly in the KPI numbers is identified with no delay and without missing it. Automated alerts can also be created in reports so that it triggers a message or an email to the KPI stakeholders about these anomalies. This in turn helps to understand if the performance level is good or bad (Marr n.d.). Data Collection Frequency KPIs are reported on regular time intervals. Some are reported daily, some weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly. Based on the reporting frequency, data collection preparations are carried out. The relevant stakeholders are contacted for the most recent data as it is essential to report the latest data as possible. An understanding of the collection frequency will allow the stakeholders to schedule for data collection without any lag. Because KPI reporting has to be done on time to enhance knowledge on the current business operations and support better decision-making (Marr n.d.). Data Reporting Frequency Data reporting frequency and data collecting frequency are dependent on each other. Based on the reporting frequency, data collection frequency has to be scheduled. This is to ensure that the latest data is reported in dashboards. Old and obsolete data provides outdated insights which will lead to poor decision-making. This is why the data reported has to be relevant to the time period that is being reported. Knowledge of this data reporting frequency helps coordinate with data collection which will result in relevant and updated information (Marr n.d.). Data Entry (Responsible Person) KPI owner is responsible for gathering requirements from KPI consumers and getting things done, such as collaboration with the data team to ensure there is sufficient data to provide KPI, working with the reporting team to extract the desired

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output of dashboards. This information is necessary to be recorded especially when there is change in management, this will help prevent loss of knowledge (Marr n.d.). Expiry/Revision Date All KPIs are ideally assigned to a strategic goal. Strategic goals of a company constantly change with market changes and changing business models. This implies that the corresponding KPIs might or might not become relevant anymore. That is why each KPI has to be assigned with an expiry or revision date. At the mentioned revision date, it is required to revisit the KPI and evaluate for the relevancy to the current business operating conditions. This will help to avoid unnecessary maintenance requirements (Marr n.d.). 3.1.2.2 KPI Management at New Work SE According to Robert, performance measurement serves eight purposes to managers (Robert D. Behn 2003) (Table 3.1). It is recommended to develop a few key performance indicators that will clearly highlight the performance of the underlying target to be achieved. Some organizations tend to create a pool of key performance indicators without emphasizing the actual key ones. It is essential to lead and make decisions based on a few key ones because a large pool of KPIs will create confusion instead of steering to a solid decision-making. Even though it is difficult to decide what is the ideal number of key performance indicators for a company, statistics state that is it suggested to have somewhere between 4 and 10 main KPIs (Guide to key performance indicators 2007). In the results section, under ‘interview interpretation’ topic, all the gaps present between the ideal KPI management scenario and the status quo at the company is Table 3.1  Purpose of performance measurement Purpose Evaluate Control Budget Motivate

Managerial question Performance evaluation To steer and control in the right direction Budget allotments are decided based on the performance levels of the departments KPI results can be used as an incentive among the stakeholder to increase the performance levels Promote The visibility and reliability of a company is determined by the reports released to the public. KPI numbers measure the performance of businesses and in turn shed light into the health levels of a firm which enables to increase the popularity and promote the likeliness of the firm among all the stakeholders Celebrate Supports in celebrating accomplishments Learn Creates understanding of what is working and what is not working Improve What can be done to improve the existing conditions and which areas need to be concentrated for improvements?

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listed. This information is identified through interviews with colleagues from different business units (Fig. 3.1).

3.1.3 Thesis Objective Rod Morgan in his article defines how to identify and drill through a problem to figure out all the stakeholders involved and affected. The following questions are suggested by him to formalizing an effective problem statement (Morgan 2015). The following questions were used to clarify the problem at hand and identify all the affected parties. 1. What is the problem that needs to be solved? 2. Why is it a problem? (highlight the pain) 3. Where is the problem observed? (location, products) 4. Who is impacted? (customers, businesses, departments) 5. When the problem was first observed? 6. How is the problem observed? (symptoms) 7. How often is the problem observed? (error rate, magnitude, trend) The final objective of this thesis is to establish a template for a companywide KPI Catalogue where new KPIs can be registered and changes to existing KPIs can be recorded. This is achieved after thorough discussions with the respective stakeholders from New Work SE. This is developed for group steering KPIs only as the total number of KPIs across the company is too large to be worked upon in the allotted thesis timeframe. Fig. 3.1  Number of KPIs in an Organization (Parmenter 2015, FC2)

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3.2 Theoretical Background 3.2.1 Key Performance Indicator A KPI is a measurement which evaluates how a company executes its strategic vision —Jacques Warren (Warren 2011)

When an organization sets a goal, it needs to be monitored and measured for performance levels and whether or not it is achieved. While there are several performance measurements, key performance indicator is a widely used technique. It takes a snapshot of the current state of the business operations. Through analysing the data, it is able to arrive at insights which can be used to understand the dynamics of the present business state and to make future decisions and set targets (Patrick et al. 2017). KPIs are defined as a group of the most important metrics that are used on a higher level to understand the performance of the organization against the objectives set by the management (Parmenter 2015). KPI is a great tool of measurement as it not only gives a sense of understanding of the past business operations, but it is also possible to forecast and understand the potential future scenarios. This will help to make decisions according to the predicted future states. Since KPIs are significant in determining the future prospects of the business operations, it is crucial to define them in the most careful process otherwise it creates results that are not pivotal enough to lead to better decision-­ making in the future (Warren 2011).

3.2.2 KPI Characteristics In the introduction section, there was a brief discussion on the SMART quality of a KPI. In addition to that, according to Barbuio, the following as well are defined as characteristics of a KPI. While some of them are similar to SMART qualities, there are a few new characteristics introduced here (Table 3.2). 3.2.2.1 KPI Catalogue Performance measurement enables us to make decisions which shape the future status of a company. If the measurements are not chosen right or the calculations are done incorrectly, it creates a huge loss. It costs the organization painfully if performance measurements go wrong. So, it is obvious that companies invest sincerely in this area. Although there is not sufficient data on a company’s spending on performance measurement, it is estimated that on an average an organization invests around 25,000 person days per every $1 billion worth of sales. Now that there is evidence that there is significant spending in this area, it creates incentive to make performance measurement more efficient and effective. One of the foremost

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Table 3.2  KPI characteristics KPI Characteristic Controllable/ accountable

Relevance Verifiable

Quantifiable Timely

Accessible

Cost effective

Characteristic definition (Barbuio) Accountable refers to KPI ownership. All KPIs have a KPI owner who is responsible for matching the KPI requirements with KPI definition, implementing and communicating all the changes around. The accountable person is responsible for monitoring and maintaining the KPI. All KPIs are created to achieve a strategic objective. It is good to assign the KPIs to see the relevance of the KPI as per the goals set. There is huge data running behind KPI dashboards. It is important to assess the reliability in terms of accessibility, correctness and timeliness because this is crucial to later validate and approve the KPI data. KPIs should be measurable. If they are not, it is impossible to read them and make decisions. KPIs need to be calculated in a timely fashion. KPIs are generally reported in regular time intervals such as daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or even annually. All KPIs must be able to be reported on time to enable clear decision-making. If the KPI cannot be reported on a timely manner for some reasons, it is again not ideal to maintain that KPI. A KPI can be defined as the most ideal one with all the characteristics but if the data used to arrive at the KPI is not easily accessible and inconsistent, it is wasteful to produce such a KPI in the first place. Reliable and consistent data makes a good KPI. These qualities are defined by better accessibility. KPI collection invites investment. Investments in terms of time, human resources and technology to collect, maintain, review and report all KPIs. It is also substantial to keep an eye on the resources spent on KPI management to find the least wasteful and most cost-effective ways.

recommendations is to measure the real ‘key’ performance indicators instead of measuring a bunch of measures which does not lead to effective decision-making (Andy and Mike 2000).

3.3 Methodology An understanding of the existing KPI management across the company was obtained through interviews with colleagues from different business units. When scrutinizing the KPI management process at the company, a few areas were identified that needed changes. This information was analysed using gap analysis. Based on the inputs from the interviews and from KPI initiative project requirements, drivers were established. Upon acquiring all this information, a quality function deployment was developed to identify and develop a roadmap for the KPI management process across the company (Daim et al. 2014).

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3.3.1 Stakeholder Identification Initial step was stakeholder identification. Analysts, leadership team and commercial users of KPIs from different business units were listed. From the list, most frequent users of KPI were shortlisted. From there, interviews were scheduled based on the availability of the stakeholders. Interviews were conducted with colleagues from Lime, Berry, Yellow and Kununu business units (Table 3.3).

3.3.2 Gap Analysis After stakeholder identification, interviews were conducted. Through the interviews, the delta between the status quo of KPI management and the expectations of the stakeholders were recognized. This is done using Gap Analysis. Gap analysis is used as one of the prerequisites for technology roadmapping. Gap analysis is generally not carried out as a standalone process. Gap analysis is performed as a technique to identify the gap between the current state of affairs and the future place that is aspired. It is answered through the following questions: 1. Where we are at the moment? 2. Where do we want to be? After identifying this gap, how do we want to go to the destined place would be the next step and that is where technology roadmapping is utilized to achieve the same (Marra et al. 2018). In this section, current gaps in KPI reporting are identified against global KPI reporting status quo and futuristic discussions from New Work SE colleagues (Table 3.4).

Table 3.3  Stakeholder identification Business unit KPI owners Management Lime Kenneth Steffen Berry Frank Herrmann Purple Tom Adebahr Yellow Markus Hildebrandt Internations Stephan Hartl Honeypot Imke Schultjan Kununu Others

Commercial users Jannis Lindschau Frank Ubben Jörg Eichentopf

Analysts Karolina Bernatova Heiko Mundt Juliane Weimann Julian Backof Salma Bouzid Malte Gudd Alexander Köhler

Steve Venus

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Table 3.4  Gap analysis Status quo KPI catalogue exists as an excel file.

All KPIs are collected and reported.

New KPIs are generated as and when a requirement arrives.

Gap identified Excel user interface is not the most convenient without a good knowledge of VBA to perform advanced interactions. Historization is not possible at the moment. Establishing a web application with desired features to act as a central repository stores a lot of potential as it will be the central place for all future KPI management processes. There is no process established to monitor the existing KPIs. It is important to develop a continuous improvement process to review and refine the merits and demerits of the current practices. A process to track all the changes, change acceptance, effects on other KPIs, results on the connected strategy/goal would be a significant documentation to identify the KPIs that are still relevant & used. There exists no established process to manage (define, validate, monitor) new KPIs. New KPIs originate with no unanimous approval around the company and remain as silos under respective BUs. Globally defined KPIs would facilitate better decision-making and easier comparisons across BUs. Roles and responsibilities of BICC is not yet defined BICC. Considering resource availability, the process has to be sustainable and scalable w.r.t BICC.

3.3.3 Technology Roadmapping In the following sections, there is an overview of what technology roadmapping means and how it is formulated in general. Following that a derivation of technology roadmapping for KPI management is obtained in the results section. Technology plays an important role in strategy development. Strategy development is deployed with technology as one of its core features. Technology provides competitive advantage to companies against its competitors. This is because technology advancement takes place at a faster rate. If adaptation strategy is not pulled out at the same pace, the cost and complexity to catch up with the rest of the competition would be significant. There is a necessity to be in constant integration between technology and business processes. This call for careful private care to ensure that the existing technology in a company is sufficient for the current needs and at the same time scaling up to meet the demands of future market needs as well (Phaal et al. 2004). Markets and market needs evolve over time. So does business processes and its operation to adapt to the constantly evolving markets. Technology roadmapping provides a way to establish a relationship between the changing market and the adapting businesses. This gives a clear understanding of how businesses need to continuously update their strategies to keep up with the market needs. Technology roadmapping is often very structured and graphical which aids in better visualization. It supports long-term planning as markets and businesses change into the future. Such roadmaps will help identify bottlenecks and unexpected disruptive situations in the future which will help the company stay prepared for it. Technology

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roadmaps might appear simple in their representation but it involves a lot of challenges in its creation since it requires an integration of inputs from multiple stakeholders in alignment with each other’s vision (Phaal et al. 2004). Technology roadmapping can be done in several ways. There are many variations to it depending on the requirement and the industry where it is developed. However, there are certain foundations which remain the same. The core elements such as customer/market needs, products/services and technologies. These are linked together to create the roadmap. According to the market requirements, companies develop their products and services and invest in technologies to enhance the existing products to satisfy the current and meet the futuristic expectations of the market (Rivero and Daim 2017). Roadmaps in general answer the following three questions, (a) Where do we want to be? (i.e. future state) (b) Where are we now? (i.e. current state) (c) How do we get there? (i.e. action plans) (Amer and Daim 2010) According to Amer and Daim, technology roadmapping can be done in multiple ways. After an analysis of more than 80 different roadmaps, they concluded that there is now one size fits all solutions. There are different ways of implementing a good roadmap. This is because every industry differs from each other in their way of operation, their markets, products, processes and technologies. This in turn calls for technology roadmapping through different perspectives. Although, a solid number of literature focus on bringing the right group of stakeholders together and work together in workshops, brainstorming ideas to establish a clear understanding of the current situation and where does the strategic goal and market need would require company to be (Amer and Daim 2010). Technology roadmaps portray a concise and high-level integrated view of future course of action. Usually, roadmaps use a graphical approach which allows managers and decision makers to visualize the complete technology and market status, key milestones, decision points and strategy on one sheet of paper. Graphical roadmap consists of a chart having information of different functions and perspectives against an agreed time line. Roadmap also visually highlights the linkages among markets, products, technologies, policy, resources and infrastructure, and identifies gaps, opportunities, barriers and potential problems. Therefore, roadmap is a very versatile tool and it can encompass a very broad scope of issues (Amer and Daim 2010). 3.3.3.1 Quality Function Deployment Quality Function Deployment (QFD) also known as Cause and Effect Matrix (C&E Matrix) is a semi-quantitative tool. Developing a QFD is one of the steps towards establishing a technology roadmap. Gap Analysis is carried out as a first step in technology roadmapping. Once that is completed, the market drivers are figured post which quality function deployment is used to prioritize the market drivers. A QFD is a quantitative tool which is essentially a matrix drawn between key process

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input variables (such as market drivers) and key process output variables (such as customer requirements). This works on the same concept as a fishbone diagram but involves ranking based on interactions between input and output variables and is more visual friendly. Based on the priorities, a ranking is created for the gaps identified. This ranking is then utilized to plan the gaps identified against a set timeline (Lamb et al. 2012).

3.3.4 Interview Questionnaire A questionnaire was prepared to get a deeper understanding of the KPI management process at the company. The questionnaire was put together to cover all the stages of the KPI management process, starting from KPI creation, KPI monitoring, KPI validation and KPI reporting.

3.4 Results In the results section, the following topics are covered in order. 1. First, interpretations from the interviews are discussed. What do the KPI stakeholders like about the status quo, what do they not like and what would they like to achieve is derived from the interviews. 2. Once this information from the stakeholders is laid out, technology roadmapping is utilized to derive a similar roadmap for this process development. 3. From there, the initial stage is identified (which is KPI Catalogue) and further steps are discussed on how to reach there.

3.4.1 Interview Interpretation Interviews were conducted with stakeholders from Lime, Berry, Yellow and Kununu business units. Questionnaire from Table 3.5 was used to interview the colleagues. From the interviews the following pain areas were identified. 1. There exist different definitions for the same term. For example, for the term ‘customer’ the following definitions apply. There is no unified acceptance of a single definition for ‘customer’.

(a) Is he/she a customer even 6 months after the contract ends? (b) Is he/she a customer only if the contract is paid? (c) Are only subscriptions considered customers and not transactions?

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Table 3.5  Interview questionnaire KPI Creation

KPI Monitoring

KPI Audit/ validation

KPI Reporting

Others

1. Do we develop KPIs on our own or the requirement comes from somewhere else? Are all your KPIs relate to a strategic goal? KPIs are built only on companywide goals or do you have BU wide goals separately and KPIs accordingly? Who is responsible to define KPIs? Do you have a checklist for defining KPIs? What parameters are required for KPI documentation? What would you expect more ideally? 1. How are changes (definition, calculation and change in ownership) in KPIs handled? Who approves the change? To whom/ How is it communicated around? 2. Do you categorize your KPIs? (Global & BU specific, Financial & non-­ financial, etc.,) How would you like the categorization to be? 3. Do you have a review process to assess the KPI relevance, correctness (definition, calculation)? What is the frequency of the review process? If not, would you like one and how often would you want that to be? What are the important parameters that needs to be reviewed? Is there a second validation process available? Do you think it is necessary? Do you believe it would increase the credibility of the numbers? Would you like to do it internally or with a third party? It is vital for all KPIs to be validated or a few important ones? What would you suggest? 1. Do you report all KPIs to the management? How often reporting occurs? What KPIs are reported and what not? Why are some KPIs not reported? Are there other purposes of the KPIs which are not reported? 2. By what means are you reporting the KPIs now? Dashboard? Ppt? Excel tracking? What would be your ideal preference? 1. Would you like to align possible KPIs to a global definition? 2. Would you like to hear from us once we design a process?

2. Since there is no central party to align on definitions, every individual business unit creates their own definitions. 3. There is no systemic way that facilities collaboration between business units even if they are willing to align. 4. Every KPI is linked to a strategic goal. But the existing KPI documentation does not always have the list of the strategic goals that are being followed and measured because the KPI owners are aware of it. But this leads to dependencies on KPI owners to understand the usability of a KPI. 5. There is no categorization of KPIs and other supporting metrics (because of explicit understanding among the corresponding KPI stakeholder). KPI stocking is a snapshot which contains all KPIs and measures (there is no clear understanding of the difference between KPI and measure). 6. When there are updates in the KPI (e.g. because of product feature changes), there is no formal process to capture the changes. The responsible product owners hold most information. Since there is no formal process to communicate information across all relevant channels, information is lost at times. The existing informal process does not work in every case. 7. At the moment, the definitions for a KPI are agreed upon consensus. With the growing number of employees, topics, complexities, there is a fear developing that this consensus process might not work in the future.

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8. KPI documentation is not unanimous across all business units. Documentation style differs in every business unit. They exist in the form of confluence pages, as comments in the query itself, JIRA tickets, in the relevant dashboard itself with side notes. 9. There is huge reluctance in documenting constant changes in the KPI. The following questions are raised.

(a) What is the need to document information which changes constantly? (b) With fast changes, documentation might not be updated to the latest information which consequently leads to wrong documentation.

This calls for semi-automated documentation – e.g. technical calculation extraction from dashboards into the corresponding documentation place. 10. There is no external validation. Onboarding an external party to understand business/data logic is difficult; there is no time/other resource commitment for an extensive validation process along with reporting.

3.4.2 Survey Results In the following section, the obtained results from the interviews and questionnaire are dissected for in depth understanding. As a first step, the market drivers are identified. Followed by recognizing the product features that help moving closer towards the market drivers. After collecting the market drivers and product features, a quality function deployment is established. This is achieved through associating the market drivers and product features and ranking them based on relatedness. A higher relatedness indicates higher ranking and vice versa. Once the ranking is calculated, priority can be established. This priority will help navigate the roadmap against set timelines. 3.4.2.1 Market Drivers In a market, to create a competitive advantage, it is not only essential to meet the current customer demands but to understand the future needs of the customer and exceed their current expectations. This is achieved through discovering the hidden market drivers. Market drivers help to perceive and achieve the expected desirability of a market through the product/service (Daim et al. 2016). In Table 3.6, drivers for KPI management are discussed. They come under three categories: Executive board, Process management and Technology. Market Driver 1, business steering, is expected to support the executive board’s decision-making. New Work has several business units. It is possible that some of their operations are similar and can be compared for better steering and decision-making. Although, the KPIs used to measure performance by individual business units have different

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Table 3.6  Market drivers Category Executive Board Process Management Technology

Code MD1 MD2 MD3 MD4 MD5 MD6

Market driver Business steering KPI validation Knowledge sharing Knowledge loss prevention Easy access Historical data storage

Weight 4 2 1 1 4 1

definitions. This makes it difficult and impossible to make cross comparison. This in turn makes steering painful. Second, the KPI numbers reported by business units do not have enough validation. Some business units have a small internal quality assurance team to validate KPI calculation but most business units do not. Market driver 2, KPI validation is expected to bring more reliability on KPI reporting among the executive board. Market driver 3 is knowledge sharing. As there is no central storage of KPIs, other than KPI owners it is not possible for others to understand the KPIs. This creates a dependency on the KPI owner for any work related to that specific KPI. For example, if a management wants to understand a KPI in depth, time is spent more than needed in assembling all the stakeholders and collecting all relevant information every time. Yet, most of the time, it goes without recording the information in a convenient place. Now that we understand there is KPI owner dependency, there is potential knowledge loss when, for example, the individual responsible for managing a KPI leaves the team or the company. This is captured in market driver 4, knowledge loss prevention. All information related to a KPI is now stored across different places. Confluence, JIRA, Tableau, Git, Excel files, etc., This spread of information makes it difficult to access a KPI. Converging all of this information will make it easier for all stakeholders to read a KPI. Market driver 5, easy access, is related to this topic. KPI definition or calculation at times change with changing business environments. It is observed that it is necessary to understand the reason behind the changes and record it in case of rollbacks. Market driver 6, historical data storage, works on this demand. 3.4.2.2 Product Features After establishing a clear understanding of the market drivers, corresponding product features that bring a product/service closer to achieving a market driver is figured out. For example, a significant product feature PF2, all KPIs are stored at one place is related to multiple market drivers. When all KPIs are stored at one place, it makes it easier for the executive board to look at every business unit’s performance and make better steering. It also saves time as KPI owner dependency is not minimized by providing easy access. This also prevents knowledge loss as there is central knowledge storage. In this similar way, every product feature is related to one or more market drivers. Table 3.7 lists all the discussed product features.

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Table 3.7  Product features Category Code Product feature Business definition alignment across PF1 Business definition alignment across business business units units Global KPI catalogue PF2 All KPIs stored at one place PF3 Unanimous documentation style PF4 Ease of use PF5 Historization KPI Management process PF6 Continuous improvement process for existing KPIs. PF7 Process management for newly created KPIs. PF8 Define roles and responsibilities for BICC in KPI management process. PF9 Agreed and established KPI validation process

3.4.2.3 Quality Function Deployment When we have both market drivers and product features, based on the relatedness of both, a ranking is assigned. This is called quality function deployment (see Table 3.8). • 4 indicates the highest relatedness. • 2 is the second highest relatedness. • 1 indicates the least relatedness. Not all product features have to match every market driver. For example, product feature 1, business definition alignment across business units, is highly related to business steering because alignment of definitions across business units will help business steering to a greater extent. On the other hand, it is not necessarily related to the market driver, easy access or historical data storage. In the same way all product features are ranked in relation to their significance to every market driver. After assigning ranks, a total of all the values would be used to understand priority of these product features. In this quality function deployment, a total of each product feature category is calculated as well to understand their significance in the roadmap. This quality function deployment will help to map every product feature against each other on a roadmap in set time lines. 3.4.2.4 Technology Roadmap Once the quality function deployment is built, a technology roadmap is developed. All the obtained market drivers and product features are mapped against timelines based on their priority status that is obtained through quality function deployment (Daim et al. 2016). To realize the required product features, technologies that are needed are mapped as well in the technology roadmap. Since process management is tackled in this project, technology roadmap is adapted to include activities such

KPI Management process

Business definition alignment across business units Global KPI Catalogue

2 2 2

4

1 1

2

4

4

4 4

4 2

2

2 All KPIs stored at one place Unanimous documentation style Ease of use Historization 1 Continuous improvement process for existing KPIs. Process management for newly created KPIs. Define roles and responsibilities for BICC in KPI management process. Agreed and established KPI validation process

4 4

Process management Knowledge Knowledge sharing loss prevention 1 1 2

Executive board Business KPI steering validation 4 2 4 Business definition alignment 4 across business units

Table 3.8  Quality function deployment

4

4 4

1

4 1

1

16

0

13

32 12 13

38 35

42

234

Technology Easy Historical access data storage Priority Total 4 1 18 72

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as improving business culture. Table 3.9 shows a technology roadmap that is developed for KPI process management. 3.4.2.5 KPI Catalogue Reading the quality function deployment gives an overview of the prioritized product features. The product feature which ranks the highest is PF2, all KPIs stored at one place. This is achieved by creating a global KPI catalogue. Having a global KPI catalogue where all business units are invited to enter their KPIs will also ensure unanimous documentation style. To understand what is necessary to be documented in a KPI catalogue, the interviews that were conducted initially were investigated again to gather any available relevant information. The interviews gave an idea of what different business units currently document and are expecting to document in the future about KPIs. A questionnaire was prepared based off of the interviews and Table 3.9  Technology roadmap – KPI management

Drivers

Product Features

Technologies

Short term Mid term Long term Business steering Easy access KPI validation Knowledge sharing Knowledge loss prevention Historical data storage All KPIs stored at one place Unanimous documentation style Business definition alignment across business units Ease of use Continuous improvement process for existing KPIs Process management for newly created KPIs Agreed and established KPI validation process Agreed and established KPI validation process BICC roles & responsibilities Excel Standard template Support from management KPI information page & contact team Create collaboration space Create incentive Develop KPI culture KPI application

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sent across the company. There was a total of 23 responses. Graph 2 provides data on business units’ participation level. Most of them were from the business unit Petrol, followed by Lime and Berry. Graph 3 gives an overview of the roles of the individuals who participated in the survey. There is a good mix of analysts and leadership team as it is seen in the graph (Figs. 3.2 and 3.3).

3.4.3 KPI Parameter Definitions The KPI parameters listed below are identified as the most important ones to be documented from the interviews conducted. A brief description of the parameters can be found in the following section. 3.4.3.1 KPI Definition Every KPI answers a key performance question. The fundamental measurement by the KPI is described under this title. 3.4.3.2 Description The difference between Definition and Description is that, for example, if the definition is ‘Number of Users’, in description the term ‘User’ would be defined. It can also include other relevant information such as

Business Unit Count 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Berry

Fig. 3.2  Business unit count

Black

Lime

Petrol

Purple

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Role at New Work SE 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Analyst

Leadership Team

Fig. 3.3  Role at new work SE

• The time period that the KPI reflects • A description of how the data flows • Information on data source 3.4.3.3 Unit Measured KPIs are measured in different measurement units. It can be just numbers, in revenue units, in percentages, etc., It is important to register this information to avoid any confusion. 3.4.3.4 B2B or B2C KPI measures on the B2B and B2C side may vary. For example, customer growth or revenue growth on the two side might be calculated differently. If we have this category, it will be easier to measure. 3.4.3.5 KPI Category KPIs can be categorized into many sets such as: 1. Operational KPIs 2. Management KPIs 3. Financial KPIs 4. Growth KPIs 5. Activity KPIs 6. Engagement KPIs

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7. Technical KPIs 8. Product KPIs 9. Revenue KPIs 10. Network Health KPIs 11. BU Steering KPIs 12. Usage KPIs 13. Contract KPIs 14. Customer KPIs This categorization helps different business units to look at each other’s KPIs under specific areas and align and match each other’s definition as much as possible. 3.4.3.6 Technical Definition KPIs are calculated using formulas such as SQL queries to fetch the corresponding data. It is essential to save this information as it is crucial if there is a need to look at the data behind. For example, if there is an anomaly in the KPI pattern, the data behind the KPI needs to be scrutinized to check the actual root cause of the change. If there is no information about the calculation, it is difficult to identify the root cause. 3.4.3.7 Threshold Value (Upper and Lower) KPIs follow a pattern. A change in the pattern indicates that there is some anomaly. If there is a change then the root cause for the change has to be found. Only if there is information on the threshold levels is it possible to do the analysis. This can also be used, for example, to create automatic alerts on Tableau when the number flows above or below the threshold. 3.4.3.8 KPI Owner The one who facilitates achieving the requirements of KPI consumers. 3.4.3.9 KPI Consumer The one who is the end user – e.g. the one who makes decisions using the KPI. 3.4.3.10 Usage/Update Frequency This will be helpful to determine the relevancy or obsoleteness of the KPI.

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3.4.3.11 Reporting Frequency KPIs are reported on regular intervals. It can be daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly. This information will be helpful, to identify the importance of the KPI and hence will be useful in determining further investing in validation. 3.4.3.12 Link to All Dashboards Where the KPI Is Reported A KPI is used by different stakeholders. It is useful to have a link to all the dashboard that the KPI is reported on. If there is a change, this will enable us to check if all the dashboard are up to date with the change. 3.4.3.13 Supporting KPIs and Metrics KPIs are linked to supporting KPIs. A change in one of the KPIs would reflect in other KPIs or metrics. It would be great to have this information available as this will help to identify the changes easily and support in further validation. 3.4.3.14 Link to the Goal/Objective that the KPI Is Intended to Measure/Achieve Every KPI is developed to measure a target set by the management. It is crucial to link the KPI to the target to avoid measuring a target by a KPI that is unintended. For example, if the target is to measure ‘New Contracts’, it is ideal to know if the target is set for free contracts or paid contracts. When this information is already available, it will be easier to proceed. 3.4.3.15 Timeframe of the KPI’s Relevancy KPIs are generally created to be used long term. If there are any changes, KPI is usually adjusted to accommodate the changes. In some cases, if there are any major product feature changes, there will be a necessity for a new KPI. Hence it is vital to document the time relevancy of the KPI to avoid unnecessary maintenance of obsolete KPIs.

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3.4.3.16 Review Date (Last & Next) Review date is important to determine the reliability of a KPI.  Since constant changes in business models invite changes in operations and strategies, which ultimately change KPI calculation, it is important to review the correctness of a KPI. Information available on this will increase the reliability of the KPI. 3.4.3.17 Tagging Relevant JIRA Tickets Every task is recorded as a JIRA ticket. The workflow starts from the ticket. As these JIRA tickets tend to document all KPI business requirements and changes, tagging relevant tickets to a KPI would prevent knowledge loss. Also, once a JIRA ticket is registered, it stays there forever. Information is never lost.

3.4.4 KPI Parameter Ranking From the responses to the questionnaire, the following ranking of KPI parameters is derived. There is no huge difference in the ranking between analysts and leadership team to be found. This set a clear expectation of the required information of the KPI parameters to be documented. There are 17 parameters in total. It would be difficult and tedious to fill all the parameters every time there is change or a review process. It is therefore essential to pick the first few, for example, first 10 important parameters and make it mandatory for the documentation (Table 3.10).

3.5 Future Work Recommendation In addition to the above discussions, the following recommendations are made for future work. 1. Design, develop and implement the pre structured KPI catalogue. 2. Identify a continuous improvement process for existing KPIs. 3. An objective/subjective checklist for KPI auditing needs to be established globally to ensure equal auditing across all business units. 4. Develop management process for newly created KPIs. 5. Define roles and responsibilities for BICC in the KPI management process. 6. Based on the continuous improvement process that is developed, a KPI cleansing process could be carried out to actualize the KPIs revolving around the company. 7. All the objectives are developed only for group steering KPIs due to time limitation. This could further be extended to other KPI categories.

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Table 3.10  KPI parameter ranking KPI parameter KPI definition Description Unit measured KPI owner Technical definition Supporting KPIs & Metrics B2B or B2C Review date (last & next) Link to the goal/objective that the KPI is intended to measure/achieve Timeframe of the KPI’s relevancy Link to all dashboards where the KPI is reported Usage/Update frequency KPI consumer Reporting frequency Threshold value Tagging relevant JIRA tickets KPI Category

Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 17

3.5.1 KPI Catalogue Application Launch In the previous sections, the need and significance of maintaining a KPI catalogue was discussed in detail. The KPI parameters that are important to be documented are laid out as well from the interviews. This information can be collected and stored in different forms. They can be documented in confluence pages, as JIRA tickets, in tableau dashboards, etc. But in order to achieve a central storage for universal access, the following possibilities are suggested. • Excel file • KPI software • Hackweek web application development 3.5.1.1 Excel File At the moment, KPI data is collected in an online google sheet. Pros The benefit from excel file is that it is cost efficient.

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Cons 1. The option of historization is lost when a change is made. An alternative for this could be through downloading the documents once per every quarter so that the changes made are not lost. This will help to retrieve any old information if there is need for any rollbacks. 2. Excel files do not have user friendly and visually appealing features to compare KPIs from different business units. 3. The filter options available in excel files are not as friendly as a web browser. 3.5.1.2 KPI Software The disadvantages in an excel file can be tackled through a KPI software. Since this was not the scope of the thesis, a further analysis of the available KPI software is not done. Although, after a quick attempt to look at the possible applications, the following pros and cons were formulated. Pros 1. Historization can be achieved. 2. Comparison of KPIs across different business units can be made 3. Visually appealing and user-friendly features 4. Multiple filter features available Cons It will cost financially in acquiring and licensing a software product from outside.

3.5.2 KPI Management Process Establishment From the interviews, the current KPI management process flow was identified. In this section, a few changes are recommended in response to the pain areas identified from stakeholder interviews. 3.5.2.1 Current KPI Management Process 1. As a first step, there is a top-down requirement flow for KPIs. 2. KPIs are then developed by small teams and definitions are agreed as well within the team and the management accepts the report as it is presented.

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3. Most definitions are defined by the controlling and analytics team. 4. As KPI ages, definitions are realigned based on the changes. 5. For technical validation of KPIs, there is a quality assurance process in a few business units. 3.5.2.2 Recommendations 1. There are many difficulties in onboarding a third party for KPI auditing. It involves a huge loss of resources in terms of time, employee work hours and money. To work on this short term, internal quality assurance teams can be introduced in every business unit which will take care of KPI auditing internally. 2. A central slack channel can be created for all KPI conversations. For example, if there is a new KPI creation in a business unit, collaboration can be started in the slack channel for any similar KPI in another business unit. This will increase alignment across all business units. 3. When the KPI catalogue is developed, it can be made mandatory for a few important KPI parameters to be filled and updated at all times. 4. Communication rules need to be set to share every informational change in KPI so that information is not lost along the supply chain.

3.5.3 KPI Dashboard The following recommendations are made to enhance the usefulness of the KPI dashboards. 1. KPI dashboards are developed with star/flag rating depending on the number of validated KPIs on the board. This will increase the credibility of the KPI numbers and the corresponding business units which are reporting it. 2. Introduction of alert messages when the KPI numbers are away from the threshold levels. This supports smooth validation. 3. Creation of information boxes in the dashboard through which essential information about the KPI can be identified. For example, the definition or SQL query or KPI owner information is displayed in show information boxes when hovered over the particular KPI.

3.6 Conclusion In this chapter, there will be a brief overview of the entire thesis work. The KPI management process at the company is still at an early stage. Individual business units are following their own processes and setting their own definitions

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for KPI requirements. There is no concrete documentation available for KPIs except from a few business units. There exists no established process to align the business units on KPI formulation. This makes it difficult for business steering when there are no similar metrics to compare between business units. In an effort to tackle this problem, the thesis work had been attempted. Through interviews from several business units, the problems that they face and their expectations were collected. This critical information was later used to create a technology roadmap for the KPI management process. As initial steps, market drivers and product features were recognized from the interviews. Later, quality function deployment was developed based on the inputs from the interview to determine the importance and priority of the process flow. Using this data, a technology roadmap was developed at the end. Technology roadmap visually represents the topic on a timeline based on their priorities which is obtained through quality function development. Once the technology roadmap was built, the first stage of the roadmap was attempted to realize. The first step towards achieving the detailed KPI management process was forming a KPI catalogue where all the KPIs can be documented at a central storage and be accessed by everyone eliminating all dependencies. To determine the important aspects that the KPI stakeholders are expecting to document w.r.t to KPIs, a google survey was sent across the company. From the responses, the main KPI parameters were identified. In addition to this finding, based on the interviews, a few recommendations are also suggested in Chap. 5. Eugene Bardach’s idea of interagency collaboration capacity (ICC) was discussed by Joan and Raquel in their article. Bardach emphasized the importance of collaboration as a means to achieve innovation and creating public value. Bardach said that great outputs are lost due to obstacles and reluctance to collaborate. Bardach insisted on the necessity to look through the potential that can be created through collaboration and use that as an incentive to work through all the difficulties in establishing a collaborative space (Joan and Raquel 2001). Robert in his article portrays the significance of paving the way to clear information on using performance measurements. It is stated that not just availability of reliable and valid information is enough to find insights and make decisions, but there is a clear necessity to know how to utilize the information. Without information on the intended use, however reliable and valid the available data is, it is of no use to the users. It would rather create chaos and lead to unintended results (Robert D. Behn 2003). It is clear that even though collaboration and documentation is resource consuming, it is crucial to keep the dominos in place.

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References Amer M, Daim TU (2010) Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector. Technol Forecast Soc Change 77(8):1355–1370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.05.002 Andy N, Mike B (2000) Why measurement initiatives fail. Measur Bus Intell 4:3–6 Behn RD (2003) Why measure performance? Different purposes require different measures. Public Admin Rev 63(5) Brudan A (2010) SMART KPI. Available online at https://www.aurelbrudan.com/tag/smarthkpi/, updated on 1/15/2010, checked on 10/1/2021 Daim TU, Pizarro M, Talla R (2014) Planning and roadmapping technological innovations. Innovation, technology, and knowledge management. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-­3-­319-­02973-­3 Daim TU, Wang X, Cowan K, Shott T (2016) Technology roadmap for smart electric vehicle-­ to-­ grid (V2G) of residential chargers. J Innov Entrep 5(1):1–13. https://doi.org/10.1186/ s13731-­016-­0043-­y Guide to key performance indicators. Communicating the measures that matter (2007) Joan S, Raquel G (2001) Getting agencies to work together: the practice and theory of managerial craftsmanship. Book reviews 4:185–189 Lamb AM, Daim TU, Leavengood S (2012) Wood pellet technology roadmap. IEEE Trans Sustain Energy 3(2):218–230. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2011.2175755 Louise K (2016) 5 Reasons why KPI’s are important to your company’s growth. Available online at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-­reasons-­why-­kpis-­important-­your-­companys-­growth-­ louise-­leith-­, updated on 3/17/2016, checked on 9/29/2021 Marr B (n.d.) A sample KPI template. Available online at https://bernardmarr.com/a-­sample-­kpi-­ template/, checked on 9/11/2021 Marra M, Di Biccari C, Lazoi M, Corallo A (2018) A gap analysis methodology for product lifecycle management assessment. IEEE Trans Eng Manage 65(1):155–167. https://doi.org/10.1109/ TEM.2017.2762401 Morgan R (2015) Effective problem statements. Available online at https://www.linkedin.com/ pulse/effective-­problem-­statements-­rod-­morgan, updated on 6/4/2015, checked on 9/29/2021 New Work SE: About New Work SE (n.d.) Available online at https://www.new-­work.se/en/about-­ new-­work-­se, checked on 10/1/2021 Parmenter D (2015) The new thinking on KPIs. Performance management Patrick H, Barry E, Andrew C, John H, Kaleen L (2017) A method for key performance indicator assessment in manufacturing organizations. Int J Oper Res 14(4):157–167 Phaal R, Farrukh CJP, Probert DR (2004) Technology roadmapping—a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technol Forecast Soc Change 71(1–2):5–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0040-­1625(03)00072-­6 Rivero ARG, Daim T (2017) Technology roadmap: cattle farming sustainability in Germany. J Clean Prod 142:4310–4326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.176 Seify M (2010) Importance of KPI in BI System. Iranian Industries, Case Study, pp 1245–1246. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITNG.2010.238 Warren J (2011) Key performance indicators – definition and action. Integrating KPIs into your company’s strategy, checked on 9/11/2021

Chapter 4

Value-Oriented Roadmapping for Early-­Stage Venture Funding Polle-Tobias Taminiau and Robert Phaal

4.1 Introduction Technology-intensive innovation can be a long-term and risky prospect, requiring sustained effort and funding, with appropriate management and governance to minimize risks and maximize reward along the pathway from technology to application and market. Early-stage strategic decisions have large downstream consequences, hampered by high levels of commercial and technical uncertainty (Hirose 2017). There is a need to align management frameworks and tools with the level of uncertainty associated with different stages of innovation and associated short-, mediumand long-term time horizons (Courtney et  al. 1997). Multiple management approaches are applicable at each stage, such as business model mapping, portfolio management, scenario planning, real options analysis, make-or-buy review, and strategic roadmapping, to name but a few. Two key functions are often under-represented during early-stage technology-­ intensive innovation projects and ventures: finance and legal, particularly regarding intellectual property (IP) considerations. Limited research has focused how to formulate IP strategy in practice, with this gap addressed by Bluemel et  al. (2022) using a roadmapping-based approach. Downstream interactions between these and technical functions can be rather transactional and are prone to misunderstanding and conflict. This is a strategic problem as both finance and legal perspectives clearly have a significant influence on future venture value and success, and should be considered early in the innovation process, along with all other relevant functions. P.-T. Taminiau Dutch Corporate Finance, LM, Nieuwegein, Netherlands e-mail: [email protected] R. Phaal (*) Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_4

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For an early-stage company, capital from private investors can be essential, and may increase that company’s chances of survival during the various stages of its development. The following characteristics of early-stage companies (Damodaran 2009) perfectly illustrate the acute challenges for securing funding for such ventures. When the venture has no history: • Low or no revenues are being generated, resulting in a negative cash flow. • Early-stage ventures typically hold intangible fixed assets and no tangible fixed assets. • They must often deal with multiple claims on equity as funding is stacked through investments rounds. • Investments in early-stage ventures are difficult to convert back to cash, and are consequently illiquid. • The majority of early-stage ventures do not become commercially viable, resulting in a high ‘death’ rate. As early-stage ventures often rely on funding from private equity, devising a comprehensive business model is essential in order to persuade investors to accept risk and uncertainty. But new technology can outrun conventional business models. Depending on the type of product (or service) an early-stage venture aims to offer, the business model itself must be innovative. Entrepreneurs and inventors must secure funding for various stages of development, and meet the milestones in between those stages. Seeing those stages through requires a positive attitude, total commitment and much perseverance, and in this context, entrepreneurs score highly on optimism bias. Innovators are more risk seeking, opportunity seeking and have higher levels of self-efficacy than the general population (Åstebro et al. 2007). Entrepreneurs can, however, also be unrealistically optimistic, and greatly overestimate their abilities and likelihood of success (Arabsheibani et al. 2000). The notion that inventors can be both overly optimistic about future returns and overconfident about their abilities to ensure success increases the level of uncertainty for potential investors. Consequently, business models devised by start-ups typically reflect this optimism about future returns and overconfidence about their abilities to ensure success. All business models of the eight companies involved in the case studies (see Table  4.1) had a static ‘snapshot’ quality to them, and were of a predominantly descriptive or qualitative nature. Entrepreneurs and their support teams justify not forecasting a multiple term balance sheet, profit and loss account, and cash flow statement because of future uncertainty regarding the assumptions made, thus the high possibility of having to modify the forecasts later. Instead, they tend to work with an income statement, providing a current summary of revenues and expenses through its operating activities. As a result, business models regularly have a stagnant or ‘snapshot’ quantitative character to them. They lack a deeper understanding of how the company’s capital structure (equity versus debt) can develop over time, like a ‘stop-motion’ depiction. As funding is an on-going challenge for early-stage companies the continuous engineering of the capital structure is essential. A detailed and multiple-term assessment can assist management to remove funding hurdles.

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Table 4.1  Eight case studies—Enhancement of the value-oriented roadmapping (VRM) system Case Sector 1. Software

2.

Drug delivery

3.

Mechanical/ Industrial Engineering Photonics

Transport Infrastructure Food

4.

5. 6 7

Logistics & Fulfilment

8

Healthcare

Since Innovation context 2008 Innovation for existing product line of established company 2009 New product for technology start-up

Employees Participants Process 751–1000 4 Workshop

6–10

11

2009 New product for technology start-up

11–50

11

2011 New product for technology start-up

6–10

11

2011 New product for technology start-up 2013 New product for technology start-up 2013 New product for early-stage logistics company 2015 New product for technology start-up

1–5

6

Workshop and discussion Workshop and discussion Workshop and discussion Workshop

11–50

4

Workshop

6–10

4

Workshop

1–5

4

Workshop

Whereas innovators are more risk seeking, investors weigh risk against return and have a predominantly quantitative approach towards business models. They are most typically concerned with value creation. Operational risks aside, investors face risks of adverse selection due to information asymmetry because of entrepreneurs’ optimism bias and overconfidence. As early-stage ventures are characterized by negative cash flows and have no tangible fixed assets to provide collateral, they have no means to secure loans. Consequently, the funding of a venture throughout its various developmental stages can often be a Herculean task, as entrepreneurs and investors perceive and weigh risk in a different manner. From a finance point of view, such ventures are usually not ‘investor ready’. Most business models are inherently forward looking, describing a linear course to commercial success. They are commonly based on a range of assumptions derived from management’s interpretation of variables such as market trends, competition, customer needs, product capabilities, production and logistics. However, these assumptions in themselves hold a level of risk, and that level is difficult to quantify for external stakeholders, who may not specialize in the respective field. Consequently, business models for early-stage innovative ventures can suffer negatively from assumptions that they are ‘high risk’, specifically because such ventures have a limited track record, and commonly no forerunners or marketplace peers. This notion of high levels of risk has the potential to create a gap between ventures and potential investors.

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The premise of this chapter is that entrepreneurs can improve investor readiness of their specific venture by presenting a better business model—one that mitigates investment risk, provides investor comfort, and considers various potential developments (real options). A value-oriented roadmapping (VRM) system has been developed to help entrepreneurs build better business models through a clear and consensual sense of direction and action, combining quantitative data and qualitative context. This chapter presents a template-based approach to support strategy and financing of early-stage technology ventures, incorporating three specific management frameworks in an integrated manner: roadmapping, business model canvas and options analysis, with particular attention paid to financial considerations (Taminiau and Phaal 2019). The focus of this chapter is on early-stage technology ventures, although the situation for internal technology-based product development projects in established businesses is somewhat similar (Hirose 2017), which also require funding and capital investment. The financial perspective on venture funding is discussed on in Sect. 4.2, with the value roadmapping template and process described in Sect. 4.3. The method was developed and tested in eight diverse case studies, summarized in Sect. 4.4, before conclusions are drawn in Sect. 4.5.

4.2 Finance Considerations Investing in early-stage technology is a risky business and entrepreneurs seeking private equity funding face a specific problem in that not all investors can fully eliminate unsystematic risk (company specific risk) through diversification. In finance, ‘diversification’ means reducing investment risk by mixing a wide variety of investments within a portfolio. It is these non-diversified private investors that are more prone to the snags and pitfalls arising from the information asymmetry that occurs between entrepreneurs and investors. This information asymmetry often happens in transactions where one party has significantly more or superior information compared to another, and may result in: 1. Immoral behaviour that takes advantage of this asymmetric information before a transaction (adverse selection). 2. Immoral behaviour that takes advantage of this asymmetric information after a transaction (moral hazard). To many investors, this phenomenon increases the company’s specific risk. As the required return on an investment is an expression of the perceived risk, information asymmetry can make the investor defer from committing, or to increase the required return on the capital invested. Therefore, developing an innovative business model that reduces an early-stage venture’s specific risk by mitigating information asymmetry can help entrepreneurs secure the required funding on suitable terms.

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When building such a business model, the entrepreneur is required to think of the intrinsic added value offered by the innovative nature of the venture, as well as approaching the venture from an investor’s point of view. Investors typically think in terms of: 1 . Return versus risk 2. Liquidity of their investment (converting the investment back into cash) 3. Control mechanisms For an entrepreneur to think from an investor’s point of view, the descriptive business model must be converted into a quantitative / financial business one, and assumptions must be stated and quantified. Also, to make a quantitative/financial analysis, put simply, descriptive statements must be translated into actual numbers. So, balance sheets, profit and loss statements, and cash flow statements should be modelled numerically, for example, from time t = 0 to t = 3 or t = 5 years, depending on the specific type of industry. Modelled forecasts provide the basis for various types of financial analyses, such as best-, base- and worst-case sensitivity analyses. Consequently, the assumptions of these qualitative business models can be scrutinized in financial terms. Too often, qualitative business models fail to pass a quantitative test, with depletion of working capital as one of the most common pitfalls. Cash deficiency soon leads to bankruptcy. So, when it transpires that a business model fails this quantitative test, the qualitative assumptions need to be revised accordingly. In practice, this revision is an iterative process, resulting in an optimal scenario whilst staying true to the defined value proposition. In finance, the level of required return on the capital invested reflects the overall risk perceived by the investor. Depending on the type of investor, and his/her appetite for risk, a so-called pecking order is established. Generally, in most ventures, investors prefer to rate the provision of debt capital above the desire to become a shareholder. The main reasoning behind the creation of this pecking order principle is that investors assume that entrepreneurs overstate the value of their ventures, thus trying to demand a higher price per share. Early-stage ventures typically find it very difficult to secure loans, a process complicated by the fact that moneylenders usually demand a positive cash flow and an acceptable debt-to-equity ratio. Additionally, investors also often demand collateral. In general, early-stage ventures find it difficult to meet any of these demands, with the result that banks are not willing to fund innovative ventures. Such ventures are subsequently forced to compete in an arena characterized by private equity and VC capital funds that prefer a certain pecking order. In the light of all these issues, it is fair to say that securing capital for young innovative companies is extremely challenging for entrepreneurs. Given this difficulty, establishing the economic value of a venture becomes essential. After all, when equity investment is the predominant type of funding, what size of shareholding in a company does an investor acquire in return for his investment? As stated, the size of the equity stake that an investor demands is a reflection of required returns versus perceived investment risks. Investors are

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predominantly interested in value creation, and incorporation of finance theory and valuation methods into future-oriented business models of early-stage ventures can provide investors with more comfort. In deciding whether to invest in early-stage ventures that are typically risky and uncertain, investors prefer and take comfort from the provision of a ‘Plan B’. The value-oriented roadmapping (VRM) system encourages alternative thinking when it comes to investments. It commands a more detailed analysis of the variables that constitute the business model, and risks and pitfalls become more transparent. The qualitative knowledge gained helps to reduce information asymmetry between the venture and the investor, providing more comfort to those investors and arguably lowering the cost of capital. In turn, the venture benefits from access to funding provided by an investor sympathetic to its context and needs. In finance, discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is generally accepted as the most suitable method for valuing assets and companies. The most accepted DCF methods are the Adjusted Present Value (APV), the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and the Cash Flow to Equity method (De Roon and Van der Veer 2013). These three methods are often applied with the premise that all investment risk is captured in the discount rate. It is this rate against which projected future cash flows are discounted to a present value, which is at the heart of the DCF principle. As stated, a valuator faces several challenges when determining the economic value of an early-stage venture. Typically, these ventures are non-listed, and have a very limited track record with a negative cash flow, as revenues are often low, or non-existent. Additionally, there is little data available on other ventures with comparable technology, as these companies typically also operate in the non-listed arena, where there is limited obligation to publicize records. Furthermore, these young companies depend strongly on private investors and often do not survive the challenging road to market introduction and commercial success. Finally, because equity investments in these types of companies are privately held, these assets can become illiquid (Damodaran 2009). Because of all these challenges, establishing a discount rate is problematic. In practice, the CAPM method is often applied to establish the discount rate. This is a top-down approach, and CAPM identifies two types of risk: 1. Systematic Risk—market risk that cannot be diversified away. This includes factors such as interest rates, the effects of a subprime mortgage crisis, recessions and wars. 2. Unsystematic Risk (also known as company specific risk). This is the risk that a specific company is exposed to, and is the type of risk that does not correlate with the market. The premise of the CAPM model is a sole assessment of systematic risk, as the model assumes that investors can and will eliminate all unsystematic risk by investing in large and diversified portfolios (Hitchner 2006). Yet the standard method of estimating betas from stock prices in the CAPM model is often inadequate, as these early-stage ventures are generally non-listed (Damodaran 2009).

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The template-based value-oriented roadmapping (VRM) approach can support mitigation of the depth and extent of a company’s specific risk, which may not initially be fully transparent. The VRM approach provides a structure to critically disassemble then re-build the venture’s qualitative business case, transforming it into both a quantitative projection and a valuation. An effective implementation of the system helps to identify certain pitfalls, especially those resulting from financing policy, delays in projected revenues, regulatory hurdles, market predispositions, and barriers-to-entry. All these are identified, and their effects quantified in terms of their impact upon the economic value of the venture (i.e. asset). As stated, when applying DFC methods, all investment risk is captured in the discount rate. Damodaran (2009) states that discount rates are often ‘hiked up’ to express all the uncertainties that a private company might face, including the probability of default. Entrepreneurs are assumed to hold an information advantage regarding the intrinsic state of the company, and because of this information asymmetry, the ‘pecking order’ theory maintains that the cost of funding actually increases (Myers and Majluf 1984). A central component of R&D is risk reduction, and that this risk is lowered in each subsequent stage of a project. The frequent practice of capturing all investment risk in the discount rate often means that an early-stage venture is undervalued when applying exceptionally higher discount rates to these later stage cash flows. Given this, it seems more appropriate to apply different discount rates at different stages of development and growth. Alternatively, instead of adjusting the discount rate per stage, the investment risk can be expressed in terms of probabilities of success at the various technological development and growth stages initially faced by the venture (Boer 1998). Assigning confidence levels of success at various stages of development implies so-called options thinking. Simply put, at every stage of the development of any given venture, there is a positive or negative chance of it being successful. In valuation theory, the method of assigning probabilities to various stages of development is called Real Options Analysis (ROA). With ROA, the assumption that future cash flows will be realised without any deviation is abandoned. ROA hinges on the view that, at different stages of development, projected cash flows and risks may vary depending on internal and external changes. This results in a more realistic view for valuation. From an investor point of view, ROA provides more flexibility, because with early-stage ventures, the degree of unique (i.e. company specific) risk is exceptionally high. Importantly, it allows the investor the option to defer and refrain from investing further at a certain stage. As taking a loss can often save money in the longer term, investors can instinctively seek the comfort of being able to step back and defer investment when new information becomes available. Therefore, investors demand that well-defined milestones are met by the venture before making the next amount of agreed funding available. The value-oriented roadmapping system is particularly effective in identifying possible options, and the assignment of probabilities to these options. The system helps to map a core path to value, and allows for alternative paths towards that value. Thinking in terms of

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options provides a different perspective on uncertainty and helps to identify the characteristics of investment opportunities where uncertainty is a potential for future gain rather than just a risk of loss (Faulkner 1996). The value roadmapping (VRM) process described in the next section addresses these alternative paths and requires participants to assign a probability to the various options. As a result, obstacles and opportunities in the qualitative business case become visible and measurable through quantitative analyses. This options approach provides the investor with more flexibility, and the possibility to defer from investing holds an added value to the investor. By applying the system, information asymmetry can be mitigated, and real options can be identified and incorporated, potentially resulting in a lower cost of capital, and a more suitable pecking order in funding.

4.3 Value Roadmapping As a template-based workshop approach (Phaal et  al. 2012), the value-oriented roadmapping system is a so-called canvas method, inspired by Dissel et al. (2009). It requires workshop participants to place sticky notes with handwritten comments onto a large, structured paper ‘canvas’. This practical method is comparable to Osterwalder and Pigneur’s (2010) Business Model Canvas (BMC), illustrated in Fig. 4.1. The VRM system incorporates and extends the BMC in four different ways. Firstly, it builds directly on the canvas, using it as a ‘launch pad’, which necessarily leads to the pursuit of more depth and detail. Secondly, it applies ‘backcasting’, a process through which participants must first define and describe a successful vision for the venture, which is expressed as a point on the future horizon (direction setting ‘beacon’). In this way, backcasting results in a comparison of the vision to reality, providing a better outline of the road ahead. Thirdly, the VRM system requires entrepreneurs and workshop participants to consider alternative paths towards realizing their vision. This form of ‘options assessment’, often applied by valuation practitioners, encourages dynamic business modelling. Finally, the VRM system consist of two types of analysis: 1. Qualitative analysis, describing the model derived from the Business Model Canvas. 2. Quantitative analysis, translating a qualitative analysis into a financial analysis, applying finance theory and valuation methods. By employing this combination of backcasting and options assessment, the VRM system expands and transcends the typical ‘snapshot’ method used by most business modelling approaches. The VRM approach was tested and refined through a series of eight case study workshops (Table 4.1) leading to the stable template shown in Fig. 4.2.

4  Value-Oriented Roadmapping for Early-Stage Venture Funding

Fig. 4.1  Illustration of Osterwalder & Pigneur’s Business Model Canvas (2010)

Fig. 4.2  VRM Template

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The ‘Launchpad’ is a rearranged visual of Osterwalder & Pigneur’s (2010) Business Model Canvas. The icons in the template are explained below. Market—Demand side ‘Why?’ Participants are asked to describe future customer segments, competitors and competitive technology. They also describe their views on future trends and drivers, regulations, standards and policy and other external drivers. Application—Supply side ‘What?’ Participants are asked to describe the future value, proposition, products and services, and future business strategy with regard to marketing, sales, support, distribution, logistics and future competitive technology. Participants are also asked to describe their views on future trends and drivers, including regulations, standards, policy and other external drivers. Capabilities—Supply side ‘How?’ Participants describe the product’s future technology and design. How the products are made, and what processes are required into the future. Participants are also asked to describe perceived skills, their supply chain, IP, gaps, enablers and barriers. Finance—Supply side ‘How?’ Participants are asked to describe the future assets required to deliver the value proposition, and how the venture will be financed in the future. In order to deliver the said value proposition, participants need to make an assumption on the investments needed based upon the level of revenues the venture will generate into the future. An estimate also needs to be made on the gross margin of the venture—the revenues/costs of goods sold. Finally, participants describe what risks they perceive regarding the sustainability of the revenues, and the gross margin. Compass—Stepping Stone Generally, the core path to value is determined by ‘low hanging fruit’ in terms of market (demand), application (value proposition), capabilities (technology) and finance (positive NPV and level of capital required). The primary question to be answered is this: ‘What application of the venture’s technology or IP can generate revenues the soonest, based on an investment with a positive NPV?’ Traffic Light—Stepping Stone The traffic light symbol refers to supposed junctions at which participants have to decide upon alternative paths to value, and the likelihood that the project will go ahead (green) and/or be terminated (red). Navigation Icons—Stepping Stone The navigation cursor indicates an alternative path to value. (There can be multiple alternative paths to value.) The destination icon portrays the final ‘destination’ or objective of the chosen (core) path/s to value. The final objective can be realised through an alternative path to value.

The five steps as depicted on the value roadmapping canvas are: Step 1: Define Vision to Value Participants decide upon a year in the future (a point on the horizon), and fill out the box ‘Vision 20_ _’. This year defines the venture’s horizon. Typically, firms look 3 to 5 years ahead. Once the point on the horizon has been established, the facilitator

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challenges the participants to take a leap and envisage what the venture will be like in the future (vision). Participants write their views, comments and thoughts on sticky notes and place them in the right-hand column of the canvas. Step 2: Define the Venture Today From the future viewpoint established in Step 1, participants are challenged to ‘backcast’ and describe the venture in the present moment, with that future vision in mind. This provides a greater degree of focus because, instead of simply making assumptions, the participants are applying the information that they have at present. Step 3: Define the Core Path to Value This step is particularly pivotal, as the participants must identify and choose the primary ‘marching route’ to value creation through market and revenues. (This primary marching route is also called the ‘core path to value’, where the word ‘value’ refers to shareholder value). A vital premise of economic value is the principle that shareholder value is realized through generating free cash flows. For early-stage ventures, generating cash flows is of paramount importance. The venture must try and make the transition from ‘concept’ to ‘company’ as quickly as possible. Steps 4 and 5: Define Alternative Paths to Value These steps indicate the alternative paths (i.e. options) to value creation through market and revenues. Alternative paths may need to be investigated, due to potential obstacles en-route to market and revenues. Also, with regards to options, the probability of success or failure will have to be determined. These so-called milestones provide investors with real possibilities to defer from further funding, or increase funding levels or pace. The VRM template described above is designed for workshop deployment, within the overall eight-stage VRM process (Fig. 4.3). Stage 1  A workshop, in which participants fill in the VRM Canvas by writing thoughts onto sticky notes and positioning them to the various areas of the canvas (Fig. 4.4). A typical VRM canvas workshop takes 2–3 h. Stage 2  The facilitator draws up the conclusions of the workshop and then proceeds to Stage 3, feeding them back to all the participants for their comments and suggestions. Stage 3  Participants are presented with the conclusions of the value roadmapping workshop to provide feedback and stimulate discussion. Stage 4  The financial analyst builds the resulting financial models (forecasts) consisting of a balance sheet, a profit and loss account, and cash flow statements for future years that correspond with the time span of the canvas—generally speaking, 3–5 years, depending on the case. Stage 5  Makes the step from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The facilitator takes the participants through the financial models, focusing on revenues P*Q

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Fig. 4.3  Eight-stage VRM process

Fig. 4.4  Sticky notes with thoughts on roadmapping canvas (Image from an earlier prototype version compared to Fig. 4.2, described by Phaal et al. 2016)

(quantity × price), Capex (capital expenditure—i.e. investments), OPEX (operational expenses—i.e. costs) and free cash flows. Special attention is given to changes in the working capital required, and the relationship between equity and debt. Stage 6  Participants are presented with the conclusions of the quantitative workshop to provide feedback. Stage 7  A second quantitative workshop takes place to fine tune the financial models, and let participants see the effects of certain variables (such as sensitivity analysis and value drivers). Stage 8  The participants are presented with the VRM summary, and all relevant recommendations.

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4.4 Case Studies The VRM template and process has been developed, refined and tested through a series of eight diverse case studies, as detailed in Table 4.1. Collaborating companies ranged in size, technical focus, market sector and organizational context. The application of the VRM template (Fig. 4.2) and process (Fig. 4.3) is summarized below for illustrative purposes, with reference to Case 5. Founded in 2011, this company, developing and commercializing turn-key pedestrian bridges, required growth capital. Through a value roadmapping workshop various growths paths to value were identified. During the process it become apparent that the ‘build and sell’ revenue model as chosen by the entrepreneur would increase the volatility of the company’s cash flows and require a substantial investment in fixed assets with a low value at liquidation. Potential investors could view this combination as too risky. The process led to an alternative ‘license to build and market’ model. This revenue model allowed the company to have its operational risk hedged by its key licensing partners while receiving down payments on future license fees. As a result, investors perceived a lower operational risk. The fact that locally operating licensees would market the product and guarantee a minimum license fee provided comfort. The process further led to an investment valuation which returned forecasts and analysis regarding cash-flows, working capital required, equity dilution (capitalization table), sensitivities and economic value. This data was used to compose the information memorandum with an investment proposal based on the intrinsic business case. As a result, the venture was able to offer investors collateral as well as an equity stake and/or subordinate loan. The Value Roadmapping report offered investors clear answers to their many questions, thus reducing information asymmetry while providing comfort.

4.5 Conclusions Entrepreneurs can improve the investor readiness of their specific venture by presenting a better business model—one that mitigates investment risk, provides investor comfort. Business models for early-stage innovative ventures can suffer negatively from assumptions that they are ‘high risk’. Therefore, developing an innovative business model that reduces an early-stage venture’s specific risk by mitigating information asymmetry can help entrepreneurs secure the required funding on suitable terms. The incorporation of finance theory and valuation methods into future-oriented business models of early-stage ventures provides investors with more comfort. By applying the value-oriented roadmapping approach, information asymmetry can be mitigated, and real options can be identified and incorporated, potentially

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resulting in a lower cost of capital and a more suitable pecking order in funding. The approach helps to map a core path to value, and allows for alternative paths towards that value to bridge the gap between the entrepreneur and investors.

References Arabsheibani G, de Meza D, Maloney J, Pearson B (2000) And a vision appeared unto them of a great profit: evidence of self-deception among the self-employed. Econ Lett 67:35–41 Åstebro T, Jeffrey SA, Adomdza GK (2007) Inventor perseverance after being told to quit: the role of cognitive biases. J Behav Decis Mak 20:253–272 Bluemel JH, Tietze F, Phaal R (2022) Formulating IP strategies for service-intense business models - a roadmapping-based approach. World Patent Inf 60(September) Boer FP (1998) Traps, pitfalls and snares in the valuation of technology. Res Technol Manag 41(5):45–54 Courtney H, Kirkland J, Viguerie P (1997) Strategy under uncertainty. Harv Bus Rev:15 Damodaran A (2009) Valuing young, start-up and growth companies: estimation Issues and valuation challenges. Stern School of Business, New York University. Source: http://people.stern. nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/younggrowth.pdf De Roon F and Van der Veer J (2013) Practitioners toolkit on valuation, Part I: (un)levering the cost of equity and financing policy with constant expected free cash flows: APV, WACC and CFE. Source: https://www.tias.edu/docs/default-­source/Kennisartikelen/a-­practioners-­toolkit-­ on-­valuation.pdf?sfvrsn=6 Dissel MC, Phaal R, Farrukh CJ, Probert DR (2009) Value roadmapping: a systematic approach for early stage technology investment decisions. Res Technol Manag 52(6):45–53 Faulkner TW (1996) Applying ‘options thinking’ to R&D valuation. Res Technol Manag 39(3):50–56 Hirose Y (2017) Technology venture emergence characterisation. PhD dissertation. University of Cambridge Hitchner JR (2006) Financial Valuation, applications and models, 2nd edn. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, p 185 Myers SC, Majluf NS (1984) Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. J Financ Econ 13(2):187–221 Osterwalder A, Pigneur Y (2010) Business model generation: a handbook for visionaries, game changers, and challengers. Wiley Phaal R, Routley M, Athanassopoulou N, Probert D (2012) Charting exploitation strategies for emerging technology. Res Technol Manag 55(2):34–42 Phaal R, Kerr C, Ilevbare I, Farrukh C, Routley M and Athanassopoulou N (2016) On ‘self-­ facilitating’ templates for technology and innovation strategy workshops. CTM Working Paper Series. 8. October. ISSN 2058-8887 Taminiau P-T and Phaal R (2019) Financing early stage innovation ventures – a value-oriented roadmapping framework. CTM Working Paper Series. 10. November, ISSN 2058-8887

Chapter 5

Digitalization of Roadmapping Processes: Insights and Opportunities Maicon Gouvêa de Oliveira and Robert Phaal

5.1 Introduction Roadmapping is adopted by organizations to deal with technology and innovation strategies (Kappel 2001). While there are several purposes for roadmapping, it promotes information sharing and alignment with simple and agile practices, primarily based on workshops. These have been traditionally conducted using physical objects, such as pens, paper, and sticky notes (Phaal et al. 2004a) with stakeholder interaction predominantly developed in meeting rooms and other venues. In these spaces, facilitators use large wall charts to orchestrate the process, capturing and working with participant knowledge. The format supports participant engagement, creating a valuable moment of information sharing, creativity, consensus building, and decision-making (Kerr et al. 2012). A key example is the ‘fast-start’ roadmapping approach developed by Phaal et al. (2003). This foundation has always been considered a core advantage of roadmapping processes. However, although such workshop-based approaches are widely adopted, they represent only one possible process approach to delivering roadmapping. Advances in digital technology provide an opportunity to boost innovation management practices (Farrington and Alizadeh 2017), including roadmapping processes and workshops. The digitalization concept considers changes in people’s behavior regarding the widely recognized separation between the digital and

M. G. de Oliveira (*) Centre for Innovation Management and Sustainability, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, SP, Brazil e-mail: [email protected] R. Phaal Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_5

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physical worlds. Consequently, it involves changes in the workplace, market environment, and product and service offerings (Marion and Fixson 2021). Despite the effectiveness of co-located roadmapping processes based on physical objects, the introduction of digital technologies in core elements of roadmapping is still unclear and needs investigation. There are examples of software used to support roadmapping (Kostoff and Schaller 2001; Lee et  al. 2008; Richey and Grinnell 2004). These examples mainly support information gathering and roadmap management, which are important but lack support for digitalizing highly interactive workshops, which form a core part of roadmapping. This chapter presents insights and opportunities regarding digital roadmapping processes, focusing on interactive human-centric workshops. The findings presented results from a 3-year project which began by experimenting with co-located digital roadmapping workshops and then investigated remote distributed digital roadmapping. A framework focused on digital roadmapping processes is proposed to support the description and analysis of findings. The following sections present the framework proposed, followed by a description of the research method and findings, concluding with a summary and considerations regarding digital roadmapping.

5.2 Digital Roadmapping Framework Roadmapping processes are well established in the literature. According to Oliveira et al. (2012) and Oliveira and Fleury (2015), process activities can be organized into four main phases (Fig. 5.1): planning, preparation, development, and closing. The planning phase includes forming the roadmapping team and defining time and resource requirements. The roadmapping owner, who is responsible for the

Fig. 5.1  Main roadmapping phases. Adapted from Oliveira et al. (2012)

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process outcomes, and the coordination team, which  includes facilitators, are assigned to execute the process. The preparation phase defines the activity plan, in terms of what and how activities are performed, together with required participants (execution team), information, and roadmap architecture. The development phase initiates roadmap development with the support of the execution team. The closing phase consolidates the results and formats them for communication among stakeholders. In addition to the activities executed in each phase, which turn inputs (information) into outputs (results), roadmapping processes have guidelines and resources that impact their execution. Guidelines are procedures followed by the coordination and execution team to manage participants, information, time, working method, roadmap architecture, and integration. Resources refer to physical and human resources needed to execute the process. They involve the venue, rooms, equipment, material, participants, and other resources. Figure 5.2, adapted from Oliveira et al. (2012), describes a generic view of the elements of roadmapping processes, considering information, results, guidelines, and resources. Another relevant and complementary perspective views roadmapping through a psychosocial lens. Kerr et al. (2012) focus on cognitive and social interactions in roadmapping activities in terms of three main activities/functions: cogitate, articulate, and communicate. Cogitate addresses brainstorming by participants, while articulate considers the formulation of sense and meaning using existing information, and communicate deals with transferring the results to stakeholders. This study combines the two approaches of Kerr et al. (2012) and Oliveira et al. (2012) to propose a roadmapping framework that provides a mixed activity and

Fig. 5.2  Generic view of the elements of roadmapping processes. Adapted from Oliveira et al. (2012)

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psychosocial-based perspective to address digital roadmapping processes. As a result, a framework comprised of four phases is proposed: organize, share, focus, and strategize, as depicted in Fig. 5.3. The Organize phase represents the planning and preparation phases compared to the activity-based approach presented by Oliveira et al. (2012). However, in the case of digital roadmapping, it focuses on setting the digital workspace and tools and the digital team for the subsequent phases. The following two phases, Share and Focus, involve the development phase, while the final Strategize phase involves the development and closing phases of the activity-based approach. Regarding the psychosocial approach, cogitate is addressed in the Share phase, formulate is part of the Focus and Strategize phase, and communicate is included in the Strategize phase. The following section describes the research method and findings collected from experiences with co-located and remote digital roadmapping.

5.3 Research Method The results presented in this chapter were developed as part of an ongoing research project which has investigated digital roadmapping since 2018, with support from the Strategic Technology and Innovation Management (STIM) Consortium, an industrial consortium created and managed by the Institute for Manufacturing in the University of Cambridge. A design science research (DSR) approach has been adopted for this project since it aims to develop theories and instruments to understand and support the digitalization of roadmapping. This logic is aligned with Popper’s (1959) theory of falsification and Simon’s (1996) ‘design of the artificial’ concept, which are core constructs of DSR (van Aken 2004). In this sense, the project started with experimental roadmapping applications supported by digital tools. These applications, developed between January and August 2019 and before the COVID-19 pandemic, replaced physical tools such as sticky paper notes and roadmap charts with digital sticky notes and whiteboards using interactive displays. At this stage, applications were still conducted in Fig. 5.3  The digital roadmapping framework

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co-­located workshops to compare digital and paper-based methods without changing the mode of human interaction. Therefore, the investigation focused on digitizing information and digitalizing roadmapping activities. The first experimental application involved a small-group co-located workshop process, facilitated to develop a strategic roadmap using digital tools, as depicted in Fig. 5.4. The participants invited to the workshop undertook a simulated roadmapping activity (game) using a subject recommended by the facilitator. They needed to brainstorm the topic, prioritize critical points, and develop strategic narratives. For this experiment, participants first used their laptops to write and prioritize ideas on a shared digital whiteboard, which was also visually accessible to all participants in the room through a 75″ interactive display. Then, they stood up to work together using the display to develop strategic narratives. At the end, the group provided feedback regarding digital roadmapping in terms of usefulness and ease of use, which are technological adoption dimensions (Davis 1989). The study then compared digital versus physical applications of roadmapping, also based on a co-located workshop process. This application used a roadmapping game to support participants since they were not required to invest in the subject development, but focusing on roadmapping activities. The game was designed to support the experiment and comprised four macro subjects for development: sustainable manufacturing, smart cities, financial revolution, and digital healthcare. Each subject had a set of cards with predefined information, helping groups to start brainstorming and populate the roadmap layers. Two groups were investigated, with each group separated into two teams. Each team developed a roadmap for one subject using physical tools and then changed to deal with another subject using digital tools. In the end, four teams, formed by 3–4 people, mostly PhD students with little  contact with roadmapping, experienced the differences between physical and digital co-located roadmapping, as shown in Fig. 5.5. Guidance for the roadmapping game helped the groups to maintain a consistent level of performance. For the last part of the co-located digital roadmapping applications, a large group of 13 people participated in the Sharing and Focus phases of roadmapping using

Fig. 5.4  Roadmapping workshop supported by digital tools

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Fig. 5.5  Two teams comparing the physical and digital roadmapping approaches

Fig. 5.6  Large group digital roadmapping workshop

digital tools. This application, shown in Fig.  5.6, was conducted to explore the impact of using digital tools with large groups, providing findings that could be contrasted with the former applications. These digital and co-located roadmapping applications provided knowledge to understand potential barriers and opportunities to start using digital rather than physical tools in roadmapping workshops. In 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic enforced social distancing, the practice of remote digital activities became the standard in organizations that needed to execute roadmapping. Building upon the knowledge already developed, this study conducted case studies with organizations that developed remote and digital roadmapping applications. The main goals were to clarify how these digital processes were conducted, their performance compared to physical roadmapping, and participant expectations for future digital and remote roadmapping.

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As a result, seven case studies were conducted, as described in Table  5.1. Following a research protocol, the leading roadmapping facilitators of these digital roadmapping cases were interviewed online. Data collected was then compiled and analyzed individually for each case and longitudinally to capture findings that could explain the development of remote and digital roadmapping, and its performance compared to former physical approaches. The data collected and analyzed from these co-located and remote digital roadmapping applications were used to identify digital roadmapping practices that can support other organizations. These results are presented in the next section using the digital roadmapping framework described above.

5.4 Findings Regarding Digital Roadmapping Processes The digital roadmapping framework comprises four phases: Organize, Share, Focus, and Strategize. These phases and related activities can be organized and executed in different formats based on the selected workshop settings and digital tools. Thus, customization to specific applications remains relevant and required, as expected, with roadmapping processes (Phaal et al. 2004b). The differences between remote and co-located roadmapping, regardless of the adoption of digital tools, are a point of interest. The findings presented in this section were extracted from the development of simulated digital roadmapping applications and empirical case studies. The simulated application considered co-located roadmapping, whereas the empirical case studies considered remote roadmapping. Co-located roadmapping retains facilitation practices and advantages of traditional roadmapping processes (Phaal et al. 2004a) since participants can interact and work in face-to-face settings. When remote roadmapping is undertaken, facilitation and interaction among participants are impacted substantially. For example, data visualization is hindered by a flat and reduced visual (monitor screens), and Table 5.1  Digital roadmapping case studies Cases Description Case 1 Consulting firm (innovation management) Case 2 Consulting firm (innovation management) Case 3 Consulting firm (innovation management) Case 4 Multinational firm (automation and industrial equipment) Case 5 Industrial association (ceramic industry) Case 6 The non-profit organization (education and research) Case 7 The research center of a leading European university

Unit of analysis Group of digital roadmapping projects Digital roadmapping project (mining industry) Digital roadmapping project (rail industry) Group of digital roadmapping projects Digital roadmapping project Digital roadmapping project (green chemistry) Digital roadmapping project (circular economy)

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communication is focused on single audio channels (conference audio). Moreover, physical interaction dimensions influencing people’s attention, engagement, learning, and persuasion are strongly reduced in such a remote environment. Regarding the adoption of digital tools, the simulated application, representing the co-located case, considered the digitization of the physical objects (paper, sticky notes, and charts) using an interactive display and digital whiteboard software. However, when remote working is considered, several digital tools were used in the case studies of digital roadmapping. These digital tools involve functionalities such as data collection, editing and analysis (e.g., online forms, spreadsheets, and mind mapping), file management (e.g., cloud drivers), collaborative work (e.g., whiteboard software such as Miro), communication (e.g., conference systems, emails, messengers), and roadmap creation and management (e.g., SharpCloud, Roadmunk).

5.4.1 Organize The Organize phase in the digital roadmapping framework involves preparing the roadmapping team and digital workspace. The roadmapping team comprises sponsors, owners, facilitators, and workshop participants. The digital workshops involve the digital tools that will be considered through the roadmapping process and their configuration to support the application. Preparation of the digital roadmapping team follows mostly the same baseline conducted in traditional approaches, but there is the opportunity to involve participants in shorter interactions. Differences in the digital approach were related to introducing participants to the new tools used in the digital format, such as the whiteboard software tool and conference system. The flexibility to invite participants through short online conferences reduces travel costs and adds flexibility, providing a diversity of perspectives that enhances roadmap quality and knowledge sharing. The case studies show that different sub-groups can focus on different subjects and activities of the roadmapping process. In physically co-located workshops, often involving participant travel, people are required to stay engaged through lengthy workshops, which they find stimulating and engaging. However, for distributed online workshops, this level of engagement is hard to sustain and unnecessary, given remote participation. Facilitators emphasized the challenge of involving people living in different time zones, which brings complexity to workshop scheduling. The transition to remote working impacts the duration and team size in the digital workshops. Participants in co-located workshops were able to work in fullday workshops, lasting between 6 and 8 h, with appropriate facilitation and breaks, involving large groups with more than 20 participants. However, the case studies show that workshops and meetings lasting more than 2.5  h in the remote format and involving more than 10 people become unproductive. In fact, facilitators mentioned the involvement of small teams (10 people) for prioritization, communication, and alignment activities. Thus, the roadmapping team needed to customize workshops and activities to

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fit with shorter workshops and multiple team sizes, which extends the whole process duration and increases group management and facilitation complexity. As a result of these changes, facilitators needed to design the process to merge synchronous and asynchronous activities to cope with new team requirements, taking advantage of the time between synchronous activities. The change to extended and sparse roadmapping processes seems to result in the need for reconnecting participants to the roadmapping goals between each activity. Therefore, facilitators using this format must prepare and plan the process considering further setup times for each activity. In this way, they reconnect and refresh participants on their progress and on what they need to achieve in the next step. Communication in the remote format is substantially impacted compared to co-­ located workshops. Conference systems are based on a single audio channel, reducing the group’s breadth and depth of discussion. The use of breakout sessions helps facilitators to provide multiple audio channels when splitting groups, but they also add barriers for facilitators to support every group in separate sessions. Therefore, remote and digital roadmapping often requires the involvement of more than one facilitator to assist participants. The number of facilitators is directly impacted by the number of participants involved and the need to create group sessions. In the end, the remote and digital format needs a team of facilitators, which will also require a separate communication channel to manage activities. Participant engagement and interaction in the remote and digital format often require additional support regarding digital tools and interaction. More time is generally required for roadmapping activities in the remote format compared to co-­ located workshops. However, due to advantages in information management and easier engagement, facilitators and participants tend to see similar or slightly better performance in remote digital roadmapping. In the case of co-located digital roadmapping, the advantages of easier information management are maintained, but the involvement of participants remains a challenge when travel is required. Because of this fact, during the case studies, the development of a hybrid approach was often mentioned as something that could improve roadmapping processes. The facilitator’s effort to prepare the physical venue is transferred to the digital venue, along with a new set of required digital skills. The digital venue can involve a conference system with the support of a data editing tool (e.g., spreadsheets). In this sense, the facilitator may need to manipulate data for participants and share the screen to allow them to follow the activities. Another configuration seen in the case studies is using digital whiteboard software (e.g., Miro and Mural) and a web conference system (e.g., Zoom and MS Teams). Whiteboard software requires the configuration of templates and access sharing, allowing good emulation of physical paper-based workshop methods in terms of user experience and their interaction with roadmap contents. In addition to the digital toolset chosen to support roadmapping, facilitators should have the skills to guide participants, i.e., facilitation skills. Also, fewer digital tools mean less information transfer between tools and a lower probability of

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errors. In summary, the simpler and leaner the digital toolset chosen, the higher the probability of success with the digital roadmapping process adopted. A practice that has demonstrated advantages in the experiments and cases analyzed was the definition of individual (desks) and shared spaces (chart) on the digital whiteboard. Thus, participants can work in personal spaces without worrying about others moving their digital objects. Meanwhile, the shared spaces indicate where they should put objects when they want others to see and discuss their points. This separation between individual and shared spaces is illustrated in Fig. 5.7. Another point learned from the applications was that the presence of pre-­prepared digital sticky notes available for use on the board makes participant interaction easier. When participants need to create their sticky notes, they tend to lose more time and need more support from facilitators. The point is to prepare the template for beginners so that every participant can start working regardless of their skill levels. A further consideration when facilitators are designing digital workspaces is the layout. Participants navigate digital whiteboards using a limited display size and aspect ratio. Thus, an appropriate design regarding the layout of digital objects (e.g., widescreen 16×9 versus standard 4×3 format) can enhance participant experience regarding fitting objects to the screen. In addition, font and object size impact participants’ need to navigate and zoom in/out when using smaller displays typical of laptops. These points help participant interaction, reducing facilitator interventions for digital assistance. When working remotely, confidentiality and anonymity can be concerns. Roadmapping deals with sensitive information, and working remotely in a digital format can leak information. In this sense, facilitators should clarify the information access policy during the Organize phase. For example, the Miro whiteboard system

Fig. 5.7  Individual and shared spaces in whiteboard software

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includes different access levels that can be set for different users, and facilitators can control who can see and edit boards and whether participants can see multiple or specific roadmapping boards. The team should clearly understand the information access policy and how to implement it using the selected digital tools. This point was not an issue in the cases investigated because participants were either part of the same organization or did not share sensitive information.

5.4.2 Share The Share phase in the digital roadmapping framework is assigned to set the boundaries and explore the subject under analysis. Since it is also the first phase involving participants, it is recommended that facilitators provide an overview of the process and working approach, including a short introduction to the digital tools chosen for the process. When possible, a separate meeting should be conducted before the sessions to introduce participants to the digital tools used, reducing digital barriers for participants. If a participant needs support with a digital tool, facilitators should provide it without stopping the progress of others, if feasible. Brainstorming activities are typically conducted during this phase, and each participant should have the opportunity to present ideas and thoughts regarding the subject. The roadmap template provides a structure for capturing and organizing ideas. A good practice at this stage is to nominate a person (e.g., the leading facilitator) to share a screen with the ideas and thoughts collected. This central view becomes a reference for others following the discussion, supporting continuous brainstorming, and tracking of the progress achieved. It is recommended that facilitators have two displays available to support the process, particularly when screen sharing is enabled. Then they can see participants on one screen and manage information sharing on another. The size of the display also helps with facilitation. Monitor screens larger than 24 inches tend to provide a better view for the facilitator leading participants. Smaller displays require continuous navigation and zooming to handle information, disturbing participants, and losing time. This phase often involves larger teams with more than ten people. However, the duration of remote workshops can become a constraint in enabling everyone to present their ideas and thoughts. Examples from this study show that facilitators chose to separate participants into smaller groups for brainstorming to deal with this challenge. They also collected ideas and thoughts in advance, presenting them to the whole audience with the opportunity for clarification and discussion. Despite facilitator efforts, brainstorming activities in the remote and digital format seem negatively affected compared to co-located and physical roadmapping. Communication and interaction in co-located processes present advantages, where participants tend to be more comfortable brainstorming using sticky paper notes than digital ones using touch displays. Further experimentation is required in this sense, but studies investigating creativity and brainstorming with the support of

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digital tools have already indicated this fact (Geyer et al. 2020; Jensen et al. 2018). In the end, the facilitator team’s responsibility is to design a Share phase that can cope with the required brainstorming aims and constraints.

5.4.3 Focus The Focus phase represents the transition from divergent to convergent stages in roadmap development. During this phase, results from the Sharing phase are presented to the participants to level up knowledge, understanding, and opportunities regarding the subject of analysis. Facilitators conduct a prioritization activity (e.g., scoring or dot voting) to select the relevant arenas for consideration as part of the strategic plans and actions. In the remote and digital format, since phases are typically separated into different sessions, facilitators can compile and refine the results from the Sharing phase to support a more robust presentation and alignment before starting the prioritization activity. Participants vote and prioritize a list of options identified during the Share phase. The cases analyzed reveal a variety of approaches, with some facilitators organizing the process so that prioritization was undertaken right after the Share phase, at the end of the same session, which took advantage of the fresh discussion. Others preferred to compile results, send these to participants and ask them to prioritize individually as an asynchronous activity. In this way, participants had more time to reflect on the results and prioritize, more oriented to their perspectives. Then, the prioritization results were presented to participants, who could discuss the points selected to clarify anything required. The tools adopted to support prioritization in the remote and digital format were also diverse. The most common approaches were the adoption of digital stickers on the digital whiteboard, similar to voting in physical workshops, and the adoption of online forms (e.g., Google forms, Mentimeter). The results suggest that simpler methods, such as digital stickers, are straightforward and fit better into digital roadmapping workshops. However, depending on the prioritization goals, other approaches can capture more information and deliver more robust results. Case studies report a key difference regarding influence and bias among participants when the voting is synchronous or asynchronous. In synchronous voting, participants may influence each other, depending on how the voting is conducted. If they announce their votes in some order and scores are available, the decision can be easily influenced, which can be seen as a consensual process. In asynchronous voting, participants make their judgments individually with little to no group influence. Thus, prioritization tends to be more technical and less prone to social and political factors. There were cases in which asynchronous prioritization presented a low response rate, requiring facilitators to include it in the next synchronous session. Although this phase is simple regarding tasks and tools, it can substantially impact roadmapping results. In this sense, facilitators tend to spend more offline

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work preparing information and tools to support a transparent and robust decision process.

5.4.4 Strategize The Strategize phase is critical to roadmapping in terms of creating value for organizations. Further exploratory activities should be managed during this phase to maintain process convergence. The aim should be to tackle the selected points to provide strategic plans and actions. To this end, the findings show that small groups tend to be more productive than medium and large groups. The cases considered in this study show that strategizing in the remote and digital format can be delivered in a similar manner to physical roadmapping if some process features (such as group size) are appropriately designed and managed. Participants were divided into groups of 4–7 participants. They were then assigned to review the previous phases’ knowledge of their topic, complementing it with new information when required. Group work was conducted both synchronously and asynchronously, depending on the needs. Every group was provided with an expected goal to be achieved and deadlines to close the work and present results to other groups. For example, different groups were assigned to build draft roadmaps for different topics of interest. When synchronous activities were chosen to organize different groups, breakout sessions were needed in the conference system with separate spaces for each group. In this sense, to optimize sharing and reduce the number of boards and files, a practice was concentrating all topic roadmaps on the same digital collaborative whiteboard, as illustrated in Fig. 5.8. Other options were employed in the cases analyzed, but the management of breakout sessions and different templates and files seems to distract and reduce productivity. Facilitators need to move among breakout sessions, giving attention to different groups, and sometimes groups can receive unbalanced attention for several reasons. Moving from the main to the breakout session and vice-versa always requires extra minutes. During transitions, people can have a reason to focus on other parallel tasks. Different files and templates require further guidance and management to keep the information updated and people alignment. Indeed, most cases used more asynchronous work to strategize remotely. Facilitators reported improvements in roadmap quality for the remote format, probably due to more team effort to complete strategic plans and actions. Roadmap quality seems to be related to fewer gaps and doubts, better data organization, and additional information convergence. In addition, in the co-located and digital format, the flexibility provided by digital tools to make connections and reorganize ideas in the roadmap helped create more consistent strategic narratives. In the physical approach, paper templates and sticky notes can pose some visual constraints to testing and assessing multiple strategic narratives compared to digital formats.

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Fig. 5.8  Example of multiple topic roadmaps on the same digital collaborative whiteboard

In addition, since results were already developed in the digital format, communication and sharing with other participants became immediate, without the need for onerous transcription of content in physical paper-based processes. The comments could be collected directly to the file (whiteboard or template) without affecting the presented results. This fact supports the implementation of roadmapping results in organizations; however, this was not investigated in this study.

5.5 Final Considerations This study presents findings, insights, and practices regarding applications and case studies of digital roadmapping. Two formats were considered: co-located and remote digital roadmapping. The co-located digital applications were simulated cases used to gather initial insights for digital roadmapping. The remote digital roadmapping applications were empirical industrial projects run by professional consultants investigated through case studies. These results follow a digital roadmapping framework comprising four main phases: Organize, Share, Focus, and Strategize. This framework is proposed based on the literature and focuses on merging activity and psychosocial-based perspectives to address digital roadmapping processes. This study corroborates the importance of understanding the changes brought to roadmapping by adopting digital tools. The COVID-19 pandemic introduced remote and digital roadmapping to a new organizational context, in which collaborative work had to consider digital tools to reduce travel and contact, involving experts in different locations. In addition, improved and flexible information management

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associated with the digital format brings several advantages to enhance roadmapping productivity and communication. In conclusion, digital roadmapping processes are embryonic and evolving, taking advantage of the digital transformation phenomenon and related digital tools. There is no consolidation regarding practices, and much is still to be learned to maximize performance and results, also considering hybrid processes. Opportunities for further research include: • Conduct in-depth case studies of remote digital roadmapping, considering further participant opinions to complement the case studies considered in this research. • Investigate strategizing in digital roadmapping. • Investigate creativity in digital roadmapping, considering how brainstorming is best conducted in remote approaches. • Investigate hybrid digital roadmapping, merging co-located and remote activities and considering variations of whom is in different places (e.g., participants co-­ located and remote facilitation). • Develop guidance for effective digital roadmapping, considering, e.g., aspects that can affect participants’ engagement and contribution in remote format. Data collected and analyzed to support findings from this study are constrained to the simulated applications and case studies investigated. Thus, they are exploratory and should be considered to support further development in digital roadmapping rather than conclusive. Other limitations relate to potential biases of the interviewed roadmapping facilitators and researchers, affecting data analysis and interpretation in qualitative studies, which can be addressed in future studies through appropriate research methodology. Acknowledgments  The researchers would like to thank the collaboration of organizations and professionals involved in the simulated digital applications and case studies. They also thank the support provided by the members and team of the Strategic Technology and Innovation Management (STIM) Consortium, organized by the Institute for Manufacturing, University of Cambridge. Finally, Prof. Maicon Oliveira would like to thank the Research and Innovation Pro-­ Rectory of the University of São Paulo for supporting his research on the digitalization of roadmapping.

References Davis FD (1989) Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and user acceptance of. MIS Q 13(3):319–340 Farrington T, Alizadeh A (2017) On the impact of digitalization on R&D.  Res Technol Manag 60(5):24–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2017.1348130 Geyer F, Zagermann J, Reiterer H (2020) Physical meets digital: blending reality and computational power with digital sticky notes. In: Christensen BT, Halskov K, Klokmose CN (eds) Sticky creativity: post-it note cognition, computers, and design. Elsevier, pp 125–151. https:// doi.org/10.1016/b978-­0-­12-­816566-­9.00005-­7

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Jensen MM, Thiel S-K, Hoggan E, Bødker S (2018) Physical versus digital sticky notes in collaborative ideation. Comput Support Coop Work 27(3–6):609–645. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s10606-­018-­9325-­1 Kappel TA (2001) Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future. J Prod Innov Manag 18(1):39–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0737-­6782(00)00066-­7 Kerr C, Phaal R, Probert D (2012) Cogitate, articulate, communicate: the psychosocial reality of technology roadmapping and roadmaps. R&D Manag 42(1):1–13. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1467-­9310.2011.00658.x Kostoff RN, Schaller RRRR (2001) Science and technology roadmaps. IEEE Trans Eng Manag 48(2):132–143. https://doi.org/10.1109/17.922473 Lee S, Yoon B, Park Y (2008) Web-based supporting system for technology roadmap: development, application and integration. Int J Technol Intell Plan 4(2):165. https://doi.org/10.1504/ IJTIP.2008.018315 Marion TJ, Fixson SK (2021) The transformation of the innovation process: how digital tools are changing work, collaboration, and organizations in new product development. J Prod Innov Manag 38(1):192–215. https://doi.org/10.1111/jpim.12547 Oliveira MG and Fleury AL (2015) A framework for improving the roadmapping performance. Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), 2015-Sept, 2255–2263. doi:https://doi.org/10.1109/PICMET.2015.7273103 Oliveira MG, Freitas JS, Fleury AL, Rozenfeld H, Phaal R, Probert D, Cheng LC (2012) Roadmapping: Uma abordagem estratégica para o gerenciamento da inovação em produtos, serviços e tecnologias. Elsevier Phaal R, Farrukh C, Mitchell R, Probert D (2003) Starting-up roadmapping fast. Res Technol Manag 46(2):52–59 Phaal R, Farrukh CJP, Probert DR (2004a) Technology roadmapping - a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 71(1–2):5–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0040-­1625(03)00072-­6 Phaal R, Farrukh C, Probert D (2004b) Customizing roadmapping. Res Technol Manag 32(2):80–91. https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2004.25111 Popper KR (1959) The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Hutchinson Richey JM, Grinnell M (2004) Evolution of roadmapping at Motorola. Res Technol Manag 47(2):37–41. https://doi.org/10.1080/08956308.2004.11671617 Simon HA (1996) The sciences of the artificial, 3rd edn. MIT Press van Aken JE (2004) Management research based on the paradigm of the design sciences: the quest for field-tested and grounded technological rules. J Manag Stud 41(2):219–246. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1467-­6486.2004.00430.x

Chapter 6

Technology Roadmapping Approach Based on Engineering Science, Technology Knowledge Graph, and Expert Interaction Yufei Liu, Yuhan Liu, Yuan Zhou, and Jie Tang

6.1 Introduction Technology roadmapping is a management approach that enables exploration of the dynamic linkages between organizational goals, technology resources, and the changing environment (Phaal et al. 2004) through the mechanism of exchange and integration of ideas. In the current complex and changing competitive technological environment, countries such as South Korea and Japan use technology roadmapping to plan for key technologies or other strategic areas (Li et al. 2009). Chinese research institutions have also carried out a series of initiatives using technology roadmapping. Some representative ones are the national technology roadmapping study conducted by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology in 2007, the strategic study on China’s science and technology development roadmaps in necessary fields up to 2050 conducted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the National Natural Science Foundation of China’s joint study on China’s engineering. The quality of technology roadmaps is largely influenced by the technology roadmapping development process, and so the technology roadmapping Y. Liu Center for Strategic Studies, Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China Y. Liu School of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China Y. Zhou (*) School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China e-mail: [email protected] J. Tang Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_6

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development process has become an important research direction. Phaal and colleagues proposed the T-Plan (Phaal et al. 2003) and S-Plan (Phaal et al. 2007) “faststart" step-by-step workshop methods, with further studies laying the foundation of roadmap research (Phaal and Muller 2009). Some improvements and adaptations have been made to the T-Plan and S-Plan methods (Amer and Daim 2010; Cheng et al. 2016; Geum et al. 2011; Kerr et al. 2019; Vishnevskiy et al. 2016). Roadmapping is very flexible, and other development processes and integrations have been proposed, such as the application of roadmapping to integrated products and services (Geum et al. 2011), embedded scenario analysis methods (Cheng et al. 2016), and customized processes that integrate technology-push and market-pull logics (Amer and Daim 2010; Vishnevskiy et al. 2016). These qualitative methods provide a scientific and normative approach to roadmap development. However, these methods are overly dependent on expert knowledge and the direct involvement of many experts, whose time and energy to contribute is limited; it is difficult to form a definite intermediate result, which eventually results in the loss of some expert consensus. In the research of science and technology development strategy, there are some limitations in relying solely on expert knowledge for decision-making. Some authoritative experts and scholars in China have also put forward a series of theoretical methods to improve the scientific basis and quality of strategic consulting research. Academician Qian Xuesen proposed the “Hall for Workshop of Metasynthetic Engineering” method to solve complex system decision-making by combining expert groups, statistical data, and computer technology (Yu 2016). He used his expert experience to grasp the decision-making scheme and integrated quantitative analysis results with expert knowledge to solve complex system problems. Pan, director of the Science and Technology Strategic Advisory Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, proposed a DIIS theoretical method (Pan et al. 2017) for the study of science and technology think tanks for the study of science and technology development strategies. Through the four steps of data collection, information disclosure, intelligence, and solution formation, the judgments of science and technology, intelligence, policy, and management experts are scientifically summarized, and the consensus is condensed to the greatest practicable extent. These theoretical ideas also provide a feasible solution to the problem of expert time, cost, and change in formulating the technology roadmapping. Researchers have tried combining data analysis with expert knowledge to support expert discussions through data analysts’ reports and visualization of technical information. Currently, there are relevant studies combining expert knowledge with patented technical information produced by text mining, bibliometrics, and network analysis (Geum et al. 2015; Jin et al. 2015; Lahoti et al. 2018; Lee et al. 2008, 2009; Li et al. 2016), but there is a problem that data analysis and experts are independent of each other and it isn’t easy to effectively support experts (Jin et  al. 2015; Lahoti et al. 2018). In addition, there are studies specifically targeting developing countries that propose a framework based on the Delphi method that use data analysis to support expert judgment (Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). Although this approach is highly systematic and applicable, it lacks a mechanism to coordinate expert opinions to

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reach a consensus. In order to enhance the support of data for experts, researchers began to explore the idea of user interaction as a means to promote the processing of data analysis results by experts, integrating text mining, bibliometrics, and other methods into the specific steps of the process (Kostoff et al. 2004; Li et al. 2015; Porter et al. 2013), or integrate expert knowledge into the semantic analysis process, or even all aspects of data analysis. These methods enable experts to participate more in the data analysis process, and help experts better grasp the results of data analysis to make scientific decisions. With the rapid development of machine learning and big data technology, it is possible to analyze the exponential growth of literature data. In the fields of technology path evolution and emerging technology identification, a series of explorations have been carried out on how to integrate expert knowledge and judgment into machine learning methods more effectively (Zhou et  al. 2019). For example, by combining cluster analysis with bibliometric methods such as citation analysis and co-word analysis, a technological evolution path with time nodes and quantitative data information is constructed; or focusing more on the deep interaction between machine learning methods and expert knowledge, trying to integrate expert knowledge and judgment into the entire process of emerging technology identification. At the same time, some valuable attempts have been made in the field of technology roadmapping: for example, “term clustering” by combining natural language processing techniques and clustering methods in machine learning to obtain technical information, explore publications, and R&D activities in patents. That is, through the combination of clustering algorithm and text mining method, combined with expert knowledge to mine structured technical information (Kim et al. 2016; Lahoti et al. 2018; Yoon and Phaal 2013). Different from the term clustering, clustering extraction technology topics also form a technological evolution path through reference networks Paths and methods for leveraging dependencies between components of the Bayesian network modeling technology roadmap (Suharto and Ieee 2013). It can be seen that the current mainstream method is to clean the terms through natural language processing technology and then apply the clustering algorithm to identify the essential topics related to technology in publications and patents, which gives full play to the excellent information extraction ability and mass data processing ability of machine learning methods and accelerates the promotion of road map formulation. Although the above research has made valuable attempts in the formulation process of roadmaps, there are still a number of difficulties in the process of forming a complete national strategic planning level roadmap. First, the scope and number of interactions between data and experts are limited, and the support for experts to judge the development trend of technology is weak. Second, experts’ time is scarce, and most existing roadmap development processes still require the long-term and sustained involvement of experts, and are too dependent on them. Third, the institutions and fields of expert sources are quite different, the experience and knowledge systems are different, and the coordination of opinions is complex (Gonzalez-­ Salazar et  al. 2016). Fourth, the formulation of the technology roadmapping is a

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long-term planning process, and expert changes will inevitably cause information loss, making it difficult for latecomers to grasp the formulation process quickly. Based on the project “Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy for the Next 20 Years,” a collaboration between the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the China Natural Science Foundation Committee, this study proposes a data analysis and expert interaction process for the formulation of technology roadmapping based on existing research and difficulties. The empirical research has supported more than 50 field groups to complete the practice of roadmap formulation. The process is mainly divided into four steps. First, the development of a technical knowledge graph and analysis of technological trend enhance the ability of experts to judge the direction of future technology development. Second, refining and summarizing the critical technologies in the field, formulating a technology foresight list, and experts reaching a consensus on crucial technologies through workshops, providing an apparent discussion item for the formulation of the roadmap. Third, through expert questionnaires and interviews, extensively solicit opinions on the technology foresight list and use the collective wisdom of experts to supplement and correct the technology foresight list. Fourth, develop a technology roadmap, and use the results of the above three steps as discussion material to carry out multiple rounds of seminars, avoiding blind discussion, and consuming much time. Experts exchange views and finally reach a consensus on the path of technological development. The main innovations of this study are as follows. First, the subordination between technologies is reflected through the technology knowledge graph. This drives the data and expert knowledge to interact and form related results, realizes the combination of expert, data, and computer technology, and enhances the overall comprehension of the decision scheme of complex systems. Second, the classification of experts, divided into strategic scientists, technical scientists, and different types of experts in different stages of different work, more efficiently play an expert role. Third, the technical knowledge graph is used to guide the experts to interact with the data extensively and deeply, and enhance the experts’ ability to grasp the development status of the field in the process of iterative interaction. Based on the interaction between data and experts, the intermediate results such as technological trend analysis report and technical foresight list not only avoid the loss of information in the long-term iterative process but also provide essential knowledge for expert decision-making. The support avoids excessive dependence on expert knowledge, thus alleviating the problem that the time cost of experts limits the iteration of the roadmapping to a certain extent. Fourth, the technical knowledge graph contains comprehensive technical information in the field so that experts can discuss and communicate on a shared knowledge basis, which provides a feasible way for the rapid convergence of opinions.

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6.2 Review of Technology Roadmapping Research 6.2.1 Technology Roadmap Development Method Based on Expert Knowledge Willyard and McClees’ 1987 paper was the first journal paper on a technology roadmapping. The technology roadmapping mentioned in the paper became Motorola’s basic tool, and Motorola used two types of technology roadmaps, “emerging technology” and “product technology” to maintain a proper balance. From Motorola to the development of the international semiconductor industry roadmapping practice (Willyard and McClees 1987), the concept and practice of technology roadmapping continues to develop in the long-term research and practice a macro-standardized process including three stages of preparation, development, and iterative update was formed (Mei Na Cheng et al. 2014; Han et al. 2007). Early research is also based on this three-stage model, combined with the development objectives and the actual situation of the development of the main body of knowledge, made a series of expert-centered approaches. This includes the introduction of some business and analytical models, such as the combination of business models and strategic roadmap to optimize the development process centered on seminars and explore the possibility of a new product or new market development (Abe et al. 2009), together with a process approach that combines analytical models supporting expert judgment with improved Delphi methods to plan energy technology development at the national level (Gonzalez-Salazar et  al. 2016). At the same time, studies have attempted to introduce technology forecasting methods to help experts establish a consistent view of the future direction of technology development, including embedding scenario analysis into the roadmapping (Cheng et al. 2016), and market and product planning that combines cross-impact analysis and analytic hierarchy processes (Lee and Geum 2017). Furthermore, based on the combination of scenario planning and patent analysis, roadmaps have been integrated into multiple execution layers of product planning (Yuan et al. 2012). In addition, to meet the development subject’s specific needs and expand the roadmap’s information dimension, the integrated roadmap method came into being. For example, Geum proposed a roadmap for integrating products and services by selecting technology interfaces based on the enterprise environment to meet the integration trend of manufacturing enterprise products and services (Geum et  al. 2011). Vishnevskiy, on the other hand, focused on balancing technological development and meeting market demand, using cross-impact analysis to integrate technology-driven and market-driven technology roadmapping (Vishnevskiy et al. 2016). Although the above research introduces some analysis models, technology forecasting methods, or integration strategies into the roadmap development process and organizes experts to exchange, discuss, and evaluate the results, it does not solve the problem of expert domain preference and the difficulty of opinion convergence caused by personnel change. More importantly, it ignores the positive role of combining data and expert knowledge in decision support.

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6.2.2 Technology Roadmap Development Method Based on Combined Expert Knowledge and Data Analysis At present, the development of technology roadmapping is still largely an expert-­ centered process, but the effective information that data may provide cannot be simply ignored (Geum et al. 2015). Because patents contain relevant knowledge of technological progress and innovation activities, the analysis of them helps to reveal the relationship between technologies, technological competition, and development trends. Many studies have combined expert knowledge with patent technical information mined by data analysis methods such as text mining, bibliometrics, and network analysis. Jin uses text mining and function deployment methods to extract technical keywords; the defect is that there is no correlation keyword further processing, and follow-up work all rely on expert processing (Jin et al. 2015). Lee’s approach avoids excessive reliance on experts but requires co-word analysis and network partitioning. The obtained keyword mapping is processed additionally to assist expert decision-making (Lee et al. 2008). Lahoti verifies and refines the content of specific parts of the roadmap based on analyzing the technical development status of publications and patents. However, it has weak support from experts and is relatively independent of the overall formulation process of the roadmap (Lahoti et al. 2018). In addition, some studies integrate multiple methods using text mining. Digging, citation analysis, and network analysis fully exploit the multifaceted strategic information contained in patents (Lee et al. 2009; Li et al. 2016). In addition, data analysis results are provided directly to specialists as external knowledge. It will be difficult to extract valuable information from it efficiently, and the support of experts is weak. In order to enhance the support of data to experts, researchers began to explore the idea of user interaction as a means to encourage experts to process data analysis results. In the process of interaction, the discussion and feedback of the analysis results enable experts to understand the development status of the field more deeply, supplement the relatively unfamiliar domain knowledge, and improve the ability to grasp the future development direction of the technology, thus improving the reliability of decision-making to a certain extent. An ideal way to carry out interaction is to rely on expert seminars, such as discussion and iteration based on the technical direction extracted from the literature to identify disruptive technologies (Kostoff et al. 2004) and the specific steps of integrating bibliometric methods into the seminar (Li et al. 2015). At the same time, some studies emphasize that experts should be more involved in the data analysis stage and introduce expert knowledge in literature retrieval, keyword extraction, and word frequency analysis; or integrate expert judgment into the semantic analysis process, but its interaction range has certain limitations, only for critical issues and topic sentences. The above research integrates data analysis results with expert knowledge based on interactive strategies, which enhances the scientific nature of data analysis and provides good knowledge support for experts. However, the scope of interaction and the number of

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iterations are generally less, and there is still considerable room for improvement in enhancing the support of data for expert decision-making. With the continuous development of machine learning and big data technology, the quantitative analysis part of the technology roadmapping has gradually introduced machine learning-related methods due to its excellent information mining ability and massive data processing ability. Existing research mainly focuses on mining technical information from text, such as providing technical intelligence support for the drawing of a technology roadmapping based on a clustering algorithm and text mining method (Lahoti et  al. 2018) or using keyword clustering maps, intensity maps, and relationship maps to scan potential damage signals to develop a roadmap (Kim et al. 2016), or building technology evolution paths based on multi-source data topic clustering and relationship analysis. Based on this, disruptive technologies are selected and used for roadmap decision support. This clustering-based technology point identification method identifies the content of technology topics through the mining of tacit topic knowledge and obtains more comprehensive technical information, and is different from the method of term clustering. Some studies are based on citing network clustering and topic extraction algorithms to analyze evolutionary relationships between communities, inheriting the advantages of machine learning methods that do not rely on domain knowledge, and providing various forms of evolutionary paths that can help experts better understand technological trends. In addition, some studies use Bayesian networks to integrate multi-project planning into the technology roadmapping from the perspective of modeling the dependencies between the components of the technology roadmapping (Suharto and Ieee 2013). The main goal of the machine learning-based method is to extract information from the text to build an auxiliary knowledge base. Experts need to retrieve and summarize to obtain valuable information and knowledge. As a structured semantic knowledge base, the knowledge graph extracts entities, attributes, and entity relationships from semi-structured or unstructured data to eliminate contradictions and ambiguities through knowledge fusion and finally evaluates the quality of new knowledge added to the knowledge graph to ensure the quality of the knowledge graph. The construction process can fully interact with experts, and new knowledge can be obtained by further reasoning and expansion based on structured information in the knowledge graph. Google first proposed the concept of a knowledge graph in 2012, which takes the “entity-relationship-entity” triple as the basic unit, and the entities form a network knowledge structure through the relationship. Its construction process mainly includes information extraction, knowledge fusion, and knowledge processing. The core of the information extraction step is to extract entities and relationships. Entity extraction mainly includes rule-based and dictionary-based extraction methods (Chinchor and Marsh 1998), statistical machine learning-based methods (Lin et  al. 2004; Liu et  al. 2011), and open domain-oriented methods (Casey et al. 2008; Jain and Pennacchiotti 2010). In the early days, the method of relation extraction was mainly based on artificially constructed semantic and grammatical rules for pattern matching, and then some methods based on kernel methods or feature vectors appeared. However, in

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recent years, researchers have paid more attention to semi-supervised and unsupervised learning methods, using Bootstrap-based semi-supervised methods to automatically model the relationship between entities (Andrew et al. 2010) or introducing N-gram features to strengthen weakly supervised models. The knowledge fusion step processes the redundant and error information in the information extraction results through entity linking and knowledge merging and establishes a hierarchical data structure. Finally, the fact expression is processed into a structured knowledge system through knowledge processing steps. The knowledge graph transforms scientific and technological text information into a form more in line with human cognition and provides a way to manage and utilize massive information efficiently. Its value for formulating the technology roadmapping lies in: establishing a subordinate relationship between technologies and organizing the technical information accumulated in publications and patents to become available knowledge; also, graphically displaying structured sorted data, helping experts accurately locate and deeply acquire knowledge. Given the problems existing in the above research, the method of this study has been further optimized, introducing machine learning methods to improve the quality of data mining and using interaction as a means to strengthen the breadth and depth of the combination of data and expert knowledge to improve the quality of data processing. These two angles are the breakthrough point to strengthen the supporting role of data to experts to help experts better grasp the future direction of technology.

6.3 Technology Roadmap Developing Framework Based on Technology Knowledge Graph 6.3.1 The Overall Framework As a national science and technology plan, technology roadmapping in engineering science and technology will play a long-term and vital role in guiding the development of the field. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce scientific and practical decision support methods in the formulation process to improve the technology roadmapping’s scientific basis, foresight, and pertinence. Furthermore, combining the new generation of artificial intelligence with extensive data methods and decision support can effectively improve the intelligence of decision support and support the development of strategic research such as technology roadmapping more objectively and quickly. Therefore, this paper proposes data interaction technology roadmapping formulation for expert decision-making. Figure 6.1 shows the overall structure of the framework. The interaction between the technical knowledge graph subsystem and the expert subsystem is the basis of the entire framework. The formation of technical knowledge graph output supports the development of each step in the technology roadmapping subsystem. The four

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Fig. 6.1  Technology roadmapping framework based on technology knowledge graph

steps of the technology roadmapping subsystem are organized according to the mechanism of alternating divergence and convergence (Kerr et al. 2019). A series of intermediate outputs are formed based on the technical knowledge graph to converge expert opinions. Expressly, in the stage of trend analysis, the technical development in the field is provided through data analysis, which promotes the exchange of experts and the divergence of thinking. In the technology foresight list stage, the data mining results are integrated with expert knowledge, the critical technologies in the field are screened, and the expert opinions are converged to obtain the technology foresight list. Expert questionnaire and interview stage extensively consult experts in the field to clarify the development direction and time node further; the technology roadmapping phase is based on the technology foresight list, and the results of expert interviews and seminars are held to determine the future technology development route. The divergence link enhances the universality of information sources, and the convergence link avoids options that deviate from the target. The alternating combination of this mechanism can help improve the comprehensiveness and focus of the technical information of the roadmapping.

6.3.2 Technology Knowledge Graph System In engineering science and technology strategy research, technology is systematic. It can describe the relationship between technologies in a specific field by constructing a multi-level technology classification structure. Sorting out the relationship between technologies can support experts in sorting out the technical context and

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dividing the research boundary. At the same time, the relationship between technologies formed through multiple rounds of expert discussions is also a visual form that reflects expert knowledge and consensus. The essential elements of the relationship between technologies are “technology A,” “technology B” and the relationship between the two technologies. These three elements align with the triple knowledge graph model in the new generation of artificial intelligence research. Therefore, the structure that reflects the relationship between technologies in this study is called the technology knowledge graph. The technology knowledge graph is not only a knowledge graph that reflects expert knowledge and consensus but also can be integrated with the knowledge graph composed of objective data. The frontier research methods in knowledge graphs support experts in carrying out engineering science and technology strategy research. Because the generation of a technical knowledge graph combines data with expert knowledge, it is necessary for support personnel and technical experts who are good at data analysis to cooperate. The specific process is as shown in Fig. 6.2: support personnel obtain the category division of technical fields through literature research and cluster analysis and use data mining methods to obtain a high-­frequency lexicon; the experts in the technical field integrate the technical lexicon at all levels to form a preliminary technical knowledge graph. Subsequently, expert feedback to modify the proposal after several rounds of iteration to get the final technical knowledge graph. In this process, multiple interactions between experts and the technical knowledge graph promote the formation of a consistent view of the domain, reducing domain preference to some extent. The technical knowledge graph subsystem provides knowledge such as technical field division, technical information, and technical relationship through the combination of literature data analysis and expert knowledge. This knowledge is not easy

Fig. 6.2  Technical knowledge graph generation process

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to obtain directly. The technical knowledge graph provides a carrier for transmitting this knowledge, runs through the entire roadmap formulation process, and drives the follow-up process with essential data support. This support is embodied in aspects as follows. First, guiding experts to participate more in the trend analysis of the technical field and help experts grasp the content and direction of analysis through a structured technical knowledge graph. Second, providing comprehensive technical information to assist in refining the technology foresight list is conducive to ensuring the comprehensiveness of the technology foresight list and the uniformity of the granularity. Third, as a good foundation result, it helps external experts quickly understand the preliminary work of internal experts to obtain targeted recommendations for improvement. At the same time, it also delimits the scope of the content of expert interviews and improves the efficiency and quality of interviews. Finally, the technology foresight list can be used as the primary material for the formulation of the technology layer of the technology roadmapping to help experts efficiently extract valuable information. In general, the driving effect of the technical knowledge graph on the overall process is not only reflected in fully excavating the technical information contained in the data but also in supporting the experts through the data analysis results and enhancing their decision-making and judgment ability.

6.3.3 Expert System Expert knowledge plays a vital role in strategic research, such as technology roadmapping, and making full use of expert knowledge is also the focus of decision support research. In previous studies, some expert systems were built using knowledge engineering and other methods to store and use expert knowledge. However, the expert system relies on the knowledge base to assist decision-making, and the content of the knowledge base limits its ability to solve problems. In addition, it needs to build a relatively complete knowledge base before carrying out strategic research such as technology roadmapping. On the one hand, making the knowledge base requires a lot of expert resources and other costs. On the other hand, due to the uncertainty of technology foresight research, expert knowledge will also change dynamically in the research process. Therefore, building a single expert knowledge base is challenging to support the solution of strategic decision objectives. Therefore, under the guidance of the technical knowledge graph, expert knowledge and objective data need to be iterated in multiple rounds to form convergent expert opinions to support decision-making. Therefore, in this chapter, all experts and their knowledge are called expert subsystems. The expert subsystem is composed of domain experts and support personnel. The domain experts have rich domain knowledge, while the support personnel have excellent data analysis capabilities. To effectively coordinate the capabilities of both parties, this research designed a communication mode with the technical knowledge graph as the intermediary. The two parties exchanged knowledge and experience in

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formulating the technological knowledge graph to complete the processing of data analysis results. The ability of experts to grasp the development trend of technology has been enhanced. At the same time, the technical knowledge graph provides comprehensive technical information support for experts in the subsequent roadmap formulation process, which also offers a reasonable basis for the output of situation analysis reports and technology foresight lists in the technical field. From the perspective of the field expert group, to meet the strategic planning objectives of the roadmap, it needs to be composed of strategic scientists and technical scientists with different divisions of labor. The former focuses on the top-level design and strategic direction. At the same time, the latter is more involved in the specific work of technology foresight, such as developing a technology foresight list. The two types of experts are closely linked through the technical knowledge graph. The technical scientists who are familiar with the technical details know the overall development trend and key directions of the field, and the strategic scientists who lead the strategic planning have a deep understanding of the connotation and status quo of the existing technology, thus promoting the expert group to reach consensus on the various elements of the road map. In addition, the roadmap at the national level also needs to absorb the knowledge of external experts widely and complete the consultation of the technical foresight list through expert questionnaires and interviews. This division of labor integrates the experience and knowledge of domain experts and support personnel. It improves the cognitive consistency within the domain expert group, thus solving the problem of opinion convergence caused by experts’ domain preferences to a certain extent.

6.3.4 Technology Roadmapping System The technology roadmapping system is an integrated strategic planning process that includes four steps: • • • •

Technology trend analysis Technology foresight list Expert questionnaire and interview Technology roadmapping

It uses a series of structured processes to integrate information analysis results and domain expert knowledge to plan the future development direction of technology. The specific method is shown in Fig. 6.3. 6.3.4.1 Technology Trend Analysis Because the specific fields in which experts are engaged in research work are different, it is difficult to grasp the development trend of the whole and relatively unfamiliar areas. The trend analysis in the technology field helps experts understand the

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Fig. 6.3  Technology roadmapping development process

development direction of future technology more clearly and deeply by describing the overall development trend and frontier research direction of the area and better complements the expert’s knowledge system. This is a process in which data analysis results interact with technical experts: on the one hand, papers and patent data are obtained according to the technical keywords in the technological knowledge graph to form an objective data knowledge graph, and the trend analysis report is obtained using bibliometric analysis. On the other hand, experts feedback the analysis results that deviate significantly from their cognition based on their experience and knowledge and propose new research needs to be found on the current results, such as focusing on the comparison of specific institutions or countries or defining the technical direction for further analysis by referring to the technological knowledge graph. The hierarchical technology division of the technical knowledge graph provides an excellent technical information basis for trend analysis. While describing the development of the macro technology field, it can also analyze specific sub-­ technologies according to actual needs. The final output of this step is the technical trend analysis report, which can be divided into two categories according to the objectives. The first category aims to describe the field development overview, mainly including research trends, research directions, research highlights analysis, etc. The second category is the analysis of technology frontier, technology gap, and disruptive technology oriented to the development of technology foresight list. 6.3.4.2 Technology Foresight List This study found that previous seminars on the development of technology roadmapping often lacked proper guidance, and experts could only propose discussion topics based on their own experience and knowledge and may have some concerns

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about their views, which hindered the exchange of ideas and the efficient development of the seminar. As a primary discussion material, the technology foresight list is based on the analysis of technological frontier, technological gap, and subversion. The sorting of contextual technology provides apparent discussion objects for experts, avoids blind and inefficient brainstorming, and ultimately provides decision support for the increase or decrease of technical items in the roadmap. In formulating the technology foresight list, the technology knowledge graph also plays an important role: comprehensive technical information in the technology knowledge graph can avoid omitting experts in some specialized fields. At the same time, experts can adjust the granularity of the technology foresight list by referring to the technical hierarchy of the technology knowledge graph to ensure the comprehensiveness and uniformity of the technical items in the list. 6.3.4.3 Expert Questionnaire and Interview After completing the preparation of the technology foresight list, it is necessary to conduct more extensive expert consultation on the contents of the list to modify the technical items in the technology foresight list, obtain the time for the technology to achieve the goals, and provide decision support for the determination of the milestone time of the technical items in the road map. There are mainly two ways to solicit opinions: questionnaire and interview. The questionnaire describes the technical direction of each technology in the technology foresight list and makes an indicator evaluation of universality, core, driving force, etc. Key technologies not covered in the open question list and the direction of future deployment need to be strengthened. The advantage of a questionnaire survey is that it can collect extensive opinions, but the availability of feedback results is difficult to guarantee. The advantage of an expert interview lies in deep discussion and communication and high efficiency of feedback iteration. In the traditional questionnaire process, the judgment of experts participating in the questionnaire often comes from their own. It is easy to see that external experts cannot recognize the technology foresight list refined by internal experts. This study provides external experts with a new knowledge source of technological knowledge graph in the process of development. The technical knowledge graph containing data analysis and expert experience helps external experts understand the previous results and the boundaries of interview content and provide external experts with a better basis to put forward influential opinions. After the interview, the results will be sorted out. For each technology label, the successful development, large-scale application time, and the discussion materials will be prepared for the technology roadmapping seminar to simplify the discussion tasks of experts.

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6.3.4.4 Technology Roadmapping The approach described in this chapter improves on previous practice of technology roadmapping that provides no or limited support for unstructured technical information analysis. This study obtained the technological knowledge graph containing the technology dependency relationship and the technology foresight list output containing the technology classification and implementation time nodes by combining the data analysis results of expert knowledge in the early stage, which provides basic materials for the development of the technical layer of the roadmap. It also enables experts to have a clearer and deeper understanding of the future development direction of technology. Furthermore, it endows experts with the ability to extract valuable information efficiently.

6.4 Application Case of Intelligent Machine Tool Technology Roadmap To verify the effectiveness of the framework proposed in this study, this study is based on empirical research on the development of the technology roadmapping of intelligent machine tools based on the Intelligent Support System (iSS, website: iss. ckcest.cn) of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. The research relies on the intelligent machine tool foresight expert group formed by the “China Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy Research 2035” project. The internal expert group comprises six professors, associate professors, and their research teams from the School of Mechanical Science and Engineering of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, which provides the authoritative knowledge of machine tool technology for this research. The external expert group is composed of 18 experts in the field, including the director of the domestic machinery research institute, the general manager of the tool research institute, the vice presidents, general managers, and deputy chief engineers of CNC machine tool plants, aerospace equipment manufacturers, electromechanical equipment companies, and other enterprises.

6.4.1 Construction of Technology Knowledge Graph of Intelligent Machine Tools As the basis for the preliminary preparation of the technology roadmapping, the technological knowledge graph needs to be jointly constructed by support personnel and experts. According to the literature research and cluster analysis results, the support personnel discussed with internal experts. As a result, it recognized the technical categories of the fields: machine tool components, numerical control

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system, machine tool process systems, networking technology, and intelligent systems. These five sub-fields delineate the specific scope of secondary and tertiary technologies; Experts and support personnel jointly formulate the search format of five primary subfields, extract high-frequency keywords from the title and abstract of papers and patents, and provide them to internal expert groups for discussion to determine the secondary technology. Based on each secondary technology, the retrieval method is reformulated to obtain the secondary technical document set, and the keywords are extracted to determine the tertiary technology. Subsequently, multiple rounds of iterations were carried out to delete or merge the technical items with similar meanings and to supplement the missing technical points until the internal expert group reached a consensus on the technical articles and technical relations in the technological knowledge graph. Finally, they obtained the technical knowledge graph of intelligent machine tools, as shown in Fig. 6.4. In this process, we not only got the technical knowledge graph output to support the subsequent steps but also gradually formed a consensus on the technical overview of the field in the process of continuous interaction with the technological knowledge graph, which will help to converge the views of a series of discussions in the roadmap development process.

Fig. 6.4  Intelligent CNC machine tool technology system

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6.4.2 Technology Trend Analysis of Intelligent Machine Tool First, according to the technical content in the technical system, the search keywords are determined, and the search formula is constructed. Then, objective data from papers, patents, research reports are obtained for intelligent CNC machine tools through the database, using the iSS platform to analyze the cutting-edge trend of technology development, clarify the past and current macro situation of the research field, understand the current international status and competition situation of the area, and provide data analysis support for the research in this field. Finally, the analysis results are iterated with experts to form a field technology trend scan. In the process of technology system construction and technology trend analysis, experts determine the technology system, and researchers determine the search keywords and obtain data according to the technology system. Then, after using the iSS platform to analyze the data, the experts put forward keyword modification opinions, interacted with the analysis results with the experts for multiple rounds, revised and iterated the data analysis results, and finally, completed scanning of the technical situation of intelligent CNC machine tools. Figure 6.5 is the intelligent manufacturing technology trend analysis. From the perspective of the number of papers and patents on global CNC machine tools, there is an apparent upward trend. From the standpoint of national analysis, the number of patent applications in China is currently in the leading position. However, its field development started late and still lacks international industry giants (such as FANUC, OKUMA, SIEMENS, and other companies). Globally, the world machine tool industry is mainly concentrated in Asia, Europe, the Americas, and other regions. Japan and Germany have become the leading forces in developing the global machine tool industry. Professional numerical control systems represented by FANUC, OKUMA, and SIEMENS are mainly used in numerical control technology research and application. It can be seen from the analysis of hot spots in basic research and development of technology that high-frequency words such as “artificial intelligence,” “machine learning,” and “mathematical model” have appeared in the process of technical research of CNC machine tools, which indicates that in the process of technological development in this field, some intelligent technologies and algorithm models are gradually integrated to improve the processing quality and precision. At the same time, intelligence has become a high-end CNC machine tools’ symbol and development direction.

6.4.3 Technology List of Intelligent Machine Tool Formulating a technology list is not only the selection of future-oriented vital technologies but also the key to the success of technology foresight. For example, the process of obtaining the technical list of intelligent CNC machine tools is shown in Fig. 6.6.

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Fig. 6.5  Technology trend analysis of numerical control machine tools. (a) The patent application trend analysis, (b) The patent applicant organization analysis, (c) The patent word cloud analysis, (d) IPC analysis, (e) Keyword co-occurrence analysis

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Fig. 6.5 (continued)

First, based on the technology trend analysis report, users use clustering analysis and natural language processing methods to mine the core research topics in the field. Then, after manual sorting by researchers, they summarize several essential

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Fig. 6.6  Formulation process of technology list

technology items to form an initial technology list. Then, they search and screen the future-oriented important technology items in this field in various countries and regions to supplement the initial technology list and obtain the candidate technology list. Finally, three rounds of expert seminars were held, with the experts of the first round supplementing the list of candidate technologies and adding the missing technology items in the analysis. In the second round of seminars, technical items with inappropriate content or too small particles were deleted, and merged with the technical items with similar content. In the third round of seminars, experts adjusted the granularity of the technical items in the list to make all the technical items in the list consistent. Finally, they defined the scoped and connotation of each technical item to form the final list of critical technologies. Table 6.1 is the list of critical technologies of intelligent CNC machine tools. The first column is the technology number, the second column is the selected technology category, and the third column is the list of critical technologies.

6.4.4 Technology Roadmapping of Intelligent Machine Tools The technical roadmaps were developed in expert seminars/workshops, in three rounds. The intelligent machine tool roadmaps were divided into the following layers/levels: demand, target, key technologies, and requirements for resources and support. The first round of seminars developed the first version of the roadmap from top to bottom, from the demand to target and technical levels. The demand level mainly considered the significant needs of the country’s future political, economic, technological, and other aspects of development and identified the strategic themes that need to be prioritized. The target layer mainly determines the current situation, challenges, opportunities, strategy, and field development goals, and based on the demand layer, determines the specific purposes and directions of quality improvement, health assurance, production management, etc. that need to be focused on to achieve the needs. The key technological layer mainly defines the realization and application time of key core technologies and key core products, refers to the technology foresight list, and plans the technology development path around the realization of specific goals. Specifically, this refers to the technology category in the

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Table 6.1  Intelligent CNC machine tool technology list Number Technology category 1 High-end CNC machine tool technology 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13

14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25

Technology list High-end numerical control machine tool system Intelligent machine tool design technology High-speed and high-precision technology Multi-axis linkage and compound processing technology Networked numerical Data interconnection system architecture control machine tool Big data cloud platform technologies Interconnection and communication technology of numerical control machine tools Big data remote visual monitoring technology Basic technology of Autonomous sensing Multi-view collaborative state intelligent numerical sensing technology control machine tool Sensor technology Filtering, fusion and cleaning technology of big data Autonomous learning Theoretical and data-driven based hybrid modeling technology Knowledge engineering of intelligent numerical control machine tool Autonomous control Intelligent control system Human-machine collaboration Intelligent decision-making system High-performance motor technology Application technologies of Quality enhancement Intelligent error compensation intelligent numerical technology control machine tool Intelligent temperature compensation technology Process parameter Intelligent rigid tapping optimization technology Intelligent contour control technology Intelligent vibration and flutter suppression technology Health assurance Condition monitoring, diagnosis and self-healing control technology for machine tools Predictive maintenance technology for machine tools Production Intelligent anti-collision management technology Intelligent load control technology

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technology foresight list to determine the technology direction of the key technologies layer and then determine the technology points under the technology direction. Each technology direction can be realized by multiple technology points in one or more stages. The ranking of technology points under a technology direction represents the priority order. In this process, experts can fully use the information provided by the technology foresight list to revise the implementation time or determine the priority of technology. For example, technical gaps may require more time to achieve breakthroughs, while disruptive technologies can take into account a higher priority. The requirement for resources and support layers focuses on sorting out the key policies that affect the development of technology, market, and products and mainly proposes the policy support needed in the development process of various fields from the aspects of technology, industrial environment, fiscal and tax policies, internationalization, and institutional mechanisms. The second round of the seminar analyzed the roadmap from the bottom to the top, from the requirements for resources and support layer to the technical layer, to the target layer, and to the demand layer. Whether the strategic support and guarantee can effectively support technology research and development and market application, whether the development of the technical layer can achieve the relevant development goals, and whether the realization of the appropriate plans in the target layer can meet the significant needs of the country and industry in all aspects are covered. The revised roadmap was formed after analysis and modification. Internal expert groups mainly attended the above two rounds of expert seminars. The third round of expert discussion invited other experts who had participated in the construction of the technical knowledge graph, the situation analysis of the technical field, and the development of the technology foresight list in the earlier stage to display the roadmap and summarize the complete development process. The experts provided suggestions, supplemented the content of the roadmap and fine-tuned the text description, and formed the final intelligent machine tool technology roadmap, as shown in Fig. 6.7.

6.5 Conclusions This chapter proposes a process for formulating the technical roadmapping for expert interaction based on the guidance of the technological knowledge graph. Through the technical knowledge graph, experts can be guided to interact effectively with data, improve the quality of data analysis, enhance the predictive ability of experts, connect expert knowledge with the objective development law of technology, and improve the scientific basis and accuracy of the technical roadmapping. At the same time, based on this process, this study draws a technical roadmapping in the field of intelligent machine tools. On the one hand, it verifies the effectiveness of this process in the development of the technical roadmapping; On the other hand, it provides a reference for the future development of intelligent machine tools and

6  Technology Roadmapping Approach Based on Engineering Science, Technology… Fig. 6.7  Intelligent CNC machine tool technology roadmap for 2035

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supports the formulation of relevant national strategic plans from the perspective of visualization, and is a reflection of the systematization of technology foresight. Based on the technical knowledge graph, this research combines advanced data analysis methods with expert knowledge to obtain more comprehensive data analysis results and support experts in carrying out strategic planning based on a more accurate grasp of the development status of the field. At the same time, a series of critical intermediate achievements have been formed in the process of developing the road map, such as the situation analysis report in the technology field, the technology foresight list, etc., which helps to accelerate the convergence of expert opinions. This research is essential in supporting the development of the technology roadmap in the engineering science and technology field at the national level. Through a series of practices, the development cycle of the technology roadmapping has been dramatically shortened, and expert knowledge and massive data in the field have been given full play to improve the quality of the technology roadmapping ultimately. Although this research has preliminarily explored how to effectively combine data and expert knowledge, there are still some limitations in the application. This chapter mainly studies the technology roadmapping from the perspective of technology, taking into account the impact of technology promotion in the technology development process on the development of the technology roadmapping. It involves less social and economic demand, which is the central research aspect of the follow­up plan.

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Chapter 7

Technology Roadmapping: Cooling and Heating in Sub-Saharan Africa Victor Oyedele, Tugrul U. Daim

, and Cornelius Herstatt

7.1 Introduction 7.1.1 Why Are Refrigeration, Cooling and Heating Systems Important for SSA? The term Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refers to a region of the African continent, which according to the United Nations geographical and ethnocultural classification, consists of territories and countries that lie in part or fully south of the Sahara. Major cities in this region include Abidjan in the Ivory Coast, Cape Town, Kinshasa DRC, Luanda, Kampala, Nairobi, Mogadishu, Lagos Nigeria, and more. In SSA, the Refrigeration, Cooling and Heating (RCH) technology remains largely unavailable and unimplemented in buildings and in industrial applications such as architecture, energy systems design, medium-scale residential, and commercial construction (Rhee and Kim 2015). The southern hemisphere consisting largely of South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia are excluded from the field of research distribution and industry application (Rhee and Kim 2015). Nigeria and South Africa for instance are two of the largest economies in SSA. These nations have, arguably, the greatest potentials for adoption and implementation of new and cost-effective technologies in energy planning and efficiency for new innovative buildings, low CO2 emission, and sustainable construction processes. RCH systems have the tendency to become a disruptive technology in the largely prevalent conventional HVAC

V. Oyedele · C. Herstatt Technical University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany T. U. Daim (*) Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity & Cyber Defense Policy Center, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_7

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Market in SSA. This implies that the technology could emerge as significant market competition to standard AC products manufacturers like LG, Samsung, Carrier, and the likes. Most of these producers, however, have little to no inland manufacturing presence in SSA, which to some extent adversely affects overall industry growth and technology transfer. This project includes certain investigation of the technological and market potentials that HVAC product manufacturers and other industry players could explore. It also suggests avenues to creating incentives for partnerships and the exploration of wider distribution and industrial RCH systems manufacturing capacities in SSA.

7.1.2 What Does This Project Accomplish? (The Objectives) 7.1.2.1 Aim and Key Statement of Purpose The focus of this project is the investigation of the market, technological accessibility, and feasibility for implementing RCH systems in SSA on a similar scale as in the Western European region. This is carried out through a systematic review of the approaches which has enabled the technological adoption in the region, for instance, in the UK and Germany. An in-depth exploration of industry, market, technology, and quality function models, applying the SWOT and P5F methods is also performed. In addition, readiness for technology adoption, policy and political expedience, possible entry obstacles for industry players, and technology scalability as related to SSA are studied. 7.1.2.2 Objective of TRM Application for RCH Systems, and Key Research Aspects TRM is a strategic tool applied in technology planning, which identifies the common process performance goals, the products, the milestones needed to reach these goals, a path for technological R&D, as well as the alternatives for the technology (Garcia and Bray 1997). A further project objective is to come up with a strategic Technology Roadmap. The roadmap targeted at introducing RCH systems into the constantly growing and rapidly evolving modern building and construction industry in SSA, with Nigeria and South Africa being the main locations of interest and analysis for the project. By utilizing the TRM method, a proposed roadmap is developed, which would facilitate the adoption of the technology and to unveil the massive advantages, and the energy-saving potentials of RCH systems in conjunction with other efficient energy supply and management systems in SSA. This will also be a panacea for the gradual resolution of the energy crises plaguing many regions of SSA.  Further expected outcome of the project would include recommendations on the viable resources and avenues which states in this geographical region could adopt. The adoption would be aimed at supporting the drafting of new energy policies which favor divergence from fossil fuels, and the gradual

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migration to r­ enewable resources utilization for their energy needs, particularly in buildings and built environments. Essential research questions in relation to TRM include: • What are the potentials for RCH systems technology growth in SSA? • Which organizations and corporations are the industry market leaders in RCH systems? • What technology and resource strategies could the industry players incorporate in the upcoming decade, and in which areas would these stakeholders need to adapt to ensure competitive advantage going into the future? • Out of the prospective RCH systems markets in the SSA region, which two locations or countries would have the largest anticipated market and which product applications would generate more adoption and high market shares? • How would SWOT assessment serve as a guideline to the potentials of RCH systems in SSA? • What are the business drivers and how could available technologies influence RCH products deployment, an application case for the augmented P5F analysis and the QFD model? • Which RCH product segment would prospectively generate significant growth in SSA?

7.2 Literature Review 7.2.1 Regional Profiles and Research Gaps 7.2.1.1 Nigeria and South Africa as Economic and Technological Hubs in SSA Nigeria is an emerging market with a mixed, middle-income economy and with rapidly expanding technology, communications, manufacturing, and financial services sectors (usaid 2021). With regards to nominal GDP, the nation is ranked twenty-seventh largest among the world’s largest economies and ranked twenty-­ fourth largest in terms of PPP. Nigeria also boasts of the largest economy on the African continent. Its manufacturing sector was reported as the continental leader in the year 2013, as it generates significant portions of finished goods and services for the neighboring West African states and for the extended SSA region (usaid 2021). A report published in February 2011 by Citigroup projected that, Nigeria among others will supply high global average growth rates of GDP in the upcoming four decades up until 2050. Of the two African countries named among the 11 Global Growth Generating countries, Nigeria is poised to play an important role (J.  Weisenthal 2011). The building construction sector in Nigeria is projected to operate at an 3.2% average annual growth rate in the rest of the decade, as there are indications of massive planned investment in the nation’s energy sector and overall infrastructure (Adesina 2020).

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South Africa, in various reports, has been described as a dominant emerging economy on the continent of Africa with respect to investment openness. According to an accounting report by the Grant Thornton firm, South Africa outscores Nigeria in terms of destinations for potential investment. The country is the only one in Africa to be ranked in the largest 15 global emerging economies. Thirty percent of the entire African continental GDP stem from South Africa, and the GDP is four times as much as the average figures of the surrounding nations in the SSA region. According to the WEF’s 2009 report, South Africa possesses highly promising and sophisticated industries, with a combination of a well-developed infrastructure and a vibrant economy of emerging markets. In the ranking of developing economies, the nation surpasses Brazil, Thailand, Italy, and Hungary. South Africa also has the largest industrial output on the continent at about 40% of the total output (Wood 2020). The general construction industry is expected to have a 13.2% CAGR over the next 5 years, and the commercial building construction sector is anticipated to post a 12.3% CAGR in the same forecast period (Wood 2020). For these two countries in the SSA region, there exists little to no extensive research reports on RCH products and technologies, neither are there data and literature on the RCH systems industry and implementation guidelines in the commercial and residential building sectors. 7.2.1.2 RCH Systems in WE: Germany and the United Kingdom RCH systems application has globally, and in recent years steadily, grown, particularly in nations like Germany, Denmark, and Austria where 30–50% of newly-built residential structures are equipped with underfloor heating systems (Olesen 2002). In Europe, the underfloor heating system is widely adopted in commercial and industrial building applications. A direct implication of this has been a growth in research interests, and in the characterization of thermal performance of the heat movement process and comfort provided through the set-up (Olesen 2002). In 2018, the market for cooling ceilings and chilled beams in the countries studied in WE recorded a stable increase in sales of 4.2% to a cumulative 430.8 million euros. In terms of volume, sales recorded about 4% increase in chilled beams/cooling ceilings, of which more than 3.15 million square meters were sold in 2018. The marketplace is anticipated to witness progressive growth, exhibiting a CAGR of about 6% over the next decade, exceeding 510 million euros by 2029. RCH systems have in essence been in full-scale application in Germany for about 60  years. Until the beginning of 2004, cooling ceilings in Germany were standardized and tested in accordance with DIN 4715 (testing of room cooling surfaces). This national regulation was replaced at the beginning of April 2004 by a new European test standard. The contents of the new standard (DIN EN 14240:2004 Ventilation of buildings—Testing and evaluation) are tagged: Cooling ceilings— Testing and assessment. This differs in part significantly from the previous regulations. This has the consequence that performance values from test certificates are only comparable to a limited extent. The RCH markets in WE are largely

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c­ oncentrated with about ten companies taking up to 90% of the overall sales quantities for chilled beams and cooling ceilings. This trend is illustrated by Swegon acquiring the manufacturer Zent-Frenger in 2018, with the German market being one of the most concentrated in terms of the value accounting. Office buildings in Germany, for instance, are one of the major application areas, with 2.3 million square meters of area covered and a 3.5% increase in orders and installations in 2018. Renovation of existing buildings, with the infusion of RCH systems, is projected to account for about 5% of systems sales and installations until 2025. In terms of sales quantity as well in 2018, office application spaces take the largest share with over 71% of cooling ceilings installations in WE, and the commercial and residential spaces occupies about 20% of the RCH systems market (Marketmeinung 2019). In general, there is still a minor lack of awareness of RCH systems and its potentials in WE, and this coupled with high initial purchase and installation costs has been a major hinderance to the growth of the RCH systems industry in comparison to other solutions in the HVAC domain. The research and markets report in 2020 reported an expected CAGR of 7.6% by 2024 for the German construction industry. The residential construction sector also saw a 5% CAGR increase in the past 4 years. The commercial building sector posted in value, a CAGR of 7.3% in the same period. The data shows that the total pipe length laid for RCH systems in Germany amounted to 184 million meters as a 2016 (Statista 2020). In the construction industry in the UK, comprising England, Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland, a 7% industry contribution to GDP has been recorded, according to the Government construction strategy report. About a quarter of all construction output is from the public sector, while the rest stems from private sector participation. The residential part of the industry takes up 40% of the building outputs while the commercial aspect is responsible for about 45% of total output. About 60% of these are new building projects while the remaining are maintenances and refurbishments. RCH systems has been widely implemented in the UK, and system designers for cooling ceilings for instance enjoy a certain level of design freedom with regards to not just the aesthetics, but also the acoustics, lighting, and other technologies. 50% of Standard RCH systems installations in the UK go into office applications, educational and health care structures. There are applicable testing standards and output specifications for RCH systems implementation in the UK, one of such is the BS EN 14037, which manufacturers and building operators adhere to.

7.2.2 Tools for RCH Industry Review 7.2.2.1 SWOT: Analyses This model is a strategic and essential planning instrument which has been applied in research over several decades. There exists however a vague general understanding of the concept, and assessment studies have been made which analyses new

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theoretical aspects and frameworks for SWOT evaluation in literature. SWOT analysis has been fundamentally applied by organizations while evaluating their market positions. It is also applied when analyzing the external and internal mandatory factors for strategizing in industries, particularly in indecisive situations (Benzaghta et al. 2021). The four aspects of the analysis are identifiers for the external and internal considerations. Strengths are the internal factors or elements which spur an organization into achieving its goals, while weaknesses are industry-specific factors that hinder a successful strategy execution in an organization. Opportunities are the external elements which push an organization into reaching its goals, not just as positive surrounding factors but also as avenues to deal with shortcomings and generate new initiatives. Furthermore, threats are external elements which serve as potential barriers or hinderances to an organization reaching its goals (Lei et  al. 2019). SWOT analysis has both been applied in practice and academics to help investigate and develop strategic techniques, while assessing the original position of the organization in question. Although there have been several reviews on SWOT analysis, there is, until date, no collective views on its utilization; there are rather generic review studies and methods specific to certain industries. Benzaghta et al. in 2021 collated a study which synthesized literature in the SWOT field and assessed the education, marketing, and general management industries, while supplying an integrative and historical view of SWOT analysis. This has enabled new perspectives development and theoretical frameworks investigation for the concept, with respect to avenues for future explorations. An overview of the SWOT process was also made from a holistic viewpoint, while also explaining several methods and procedures applied in various SWOT studies (Benzaghta et al. 2021). 7.2.2.2 Portal’s Five-Forces (P5F) and the Proposed Augmentations This business strategy framework was introduced in the seventies by Professor Porter of the HBS as a means for enumerating the attractiveness and investment viability of any industry. This concept has, over the years, helped entrepreneurs and business managers assess the competitive environment of their industries by analyzing the specific forces or factors driving market competition in that particular industry (Porter 1979). Porter made assumptions that the P5F are universally applicable in all industries, irrespective of the technological aspects, governmental and economic interventions (Porter 2008). These assumptions have, however, been vigorously challenged and discussed in strategy research. The framework gives an organization the industry snapshot at a specific time-point as well as an overview of the industry dynamics and potential future changes (Bruijl 2018). The forces include: Friction among existing industry competitors: With the intense competitive rivalry, profitability is heavily impacted, and organizations might react with measures such as advert campaigns, drastic service improvements, price discounting, and so on (Porter 1979, 2008).

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New market entrants’ threats: Professor Porter postulated that market entrants in specific industries help enable capacities and a bigger drive for securing a share of the market. This will in turn put pressure on investment rates, costs, and prices required to effectively compete. New entrants also have the capability of disrupting established industry players. Some barriers to market entry according to Porter include customer switching costs, unequal access to channels of distribution, incumbent advantages irrespective of industry size, demand-size advantages of scale, and so on. Organizations can essentially analyze entry barriers to anticipate counter measures that the competitors would apply, while entering a new market space or industry, and to conquer the barriers without invalidating their profitability via heavy investments (Porter 1979, 2008). Suppliers’ bargaining power: Suppliers can issue threats of increased prices to organizations for products and services, which is in essence, detrimental to profitability. Instances of suppliers possessing high bargaining power include: industry domination and control by a few stakeholders, especially when the specific industry is not the most prominent customer being supplied the particular goods and services (Porter 1979). The customers’ power is an influencing factor over the power of suppliers as customers can demand higher-quality products, force prices reduction, which may eventually affect industry profitability negatively. The buyers’ bargaining power: Within any certain industry, the buyers possess the capability for downwards propulsion of prices (Porter 1979, 2008). Sellers usually come up with ways to increase their profitability by introducing premium pricing for specific products or raise the buyer-incurred costs, while they change from a seller to the other. This poses a challenge however, as buyers usually do not appreciate being locked on to a particular seller. Sellers could come up with a form of loyalty scheme for buyers, increased service, and product delivery quality and more, to overcome the lock-in situation. With fewer product options, and market segmentation, buyers tend to possess less power to bargain, which gives sellers the leverage of price bundling and discrimination. Threat of substitutes: Products or services which have been identified to fulfil a similar purpose as the main industry services and products are substitutes. The influencing factors for the threats that substitutes pose in the industry include the costs of switching between substitutes and the resolution of the buyers to stick to a specific product. From a profitability viewpoint, substitutes have to be low in supply, buyers on the other hand desire more substitutes (Porter 2008). Isabelle et al. (2020) argued that the initial P5F framework has fallen short of the twenty-first century business strategy requirements, and that flawed decision-­ making and strategy development could result from its continuous utilization. A revised and augmented framework has been developed which is applicable in not just some select industries, but rather in much broader knowledge and capital-­ intensive industries. The new framework includes four new relevant forces which pose specific threats to business strategy, and they are as follows:

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Digitalization threat: The term digitization designates a technology-driven transformational process which aims to improve business responsiveness and flexibility through operational alignment and better IT and organizational structures. This force emphasizes the impacts of rising digitalization on a particular industry. There are four main elements that moderate industry digitalization, namely, digital input and output (advantages of digital processes as a function of procurement and sale), digital processing (degree of internal and external process integration and partnerships), Infrastructure (available IT technologies and their sophistication). The main inference from this dimension is that the more digitalization a particular field embraces, the more intense the anticipated industry contention (Isabelle et al. 2020). Innovativeness of competitors: The innovativeness dimension is fast becoming a relevant reference for competitive advantage in industries. Studies show that when foreign innovative players enter a specific market, there exists also in tandem the likelihood of a local firm coming up with pioneering innovation in the same industry. Stakeholders nowadays need to raise their innovation speed to remain relevant in an industry with fast-paced IT applicability and shrinking life cycle of products. Industry attractiveness in this dimension can be monitored by the number of registered patents as well as the IPI. If an industry’s IPI is low, that is generally considered as an avenue to achieve competitive advantage and indicates that the business environment could be investment friendly. Globalization outlook: This dimension stipulates the imperativeness of firms to manage their extended network of stakeholders and develop good client relationships irrespective of location, if they want to internationalize successfully. By monitoring a particular region or country’s tax regime and governmental expenditures, this dimension can be effectively measured. Countries that have lower government capital consumption rates are considered more globalized. The transparency index for capital accounts and FDI levels are key factors that exert profound influence on the market and industry viability (Isabelle et al. 2020). Industry exposure to deregulation and regulation schemes: From a deregulation viewpoint, lesser governmental influence over certain industries has been observed in many regions over the past decade. With widespread deregulation, industries are becoming more conducive, and the free market control of business operations is becoming more prominent. This dimension is, however, difficult to measure as sitting governments change regularly in most regions, and the political circumstances and policy decisions dictate the extents of regulation. Regulations, many times, are introduced and implemented haphazardly, and industry stakeholders and organizations must always put regulatory schemes into consideration, so that they can manage their exposure to these schemes and reach accordingly (Isabelle et al. 2020).

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7.2.2.3 QFD in Product-Technology Management The Quality function deployment QFD is a concept developed for Japanese industries in the 1960s which has eventually evolved as a widely accepted and applied product development tool. The method refers broadly to a combination of several quality deployment obligations with specifically defined product quality functions (Akao and Mazur 2003). The purpose of the tool is to help establish quality parameters and procedural networks for technological innovations and products which industry analysts need to inculcate customer and user inputs in product outcomes. Akao et al. in 2004 further observed that the actual quality deployment places more emphasis on the product outcomes, while the specific quality functions emphasize the activities and work process steps required to achieve a certain product quality. The QFD has been documented as a methodology which is effective in streamlining customer requirements and process planning goals for certain products. It has been also shown to decrease product engineering costs and development times when applied in specific contexts (Conti 1989). It is also a design and quality improvement technique which brings the customers or users relatively closer to the product development process. It can serve as a modifiable, flexible, and extendable framework with various other quality improvement and design techniques (Arash 2002). The QFD model possesses the potential to become a highly suitable and applicable tool for quality design from the product users’ viewpoints (Arash 2002).

7.3 Methodology 7.3.1 Why Organizations Apply TRM as a Business Management Strategy Many established organizations have the tendency to make their new product and service development decisions, as well as market entry targets on the basis of their incremental ROI alone (Jeon et al. 2011). They also tend to base their market strategies on the marginal returns on past market and industry investments (Weidong 2010). This is, however, a significant constraint to becoming adaptive and moving to other elemental platforms. It could also constrain business expansion into regions where there are prospectively equal opportunities for full product and R&D exploitation as well as overall profitability (Schuh et al. 2011). TRM needs to be consistently applied for organizations to remain competitive (Petrick and Echols 2004).

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7.3.2 TRM as a Tool for Strategy Alignment and Technological Development The TRM technique as a strategic planning mechanism and technological alignment tool has seen steady growth with respect to business development and its objectives (Petrick and Echols 2004). TRM applies to a diverse range of technological, industrial, product, and governmental aspects, so also are academic interest and research in TRM has steadily expanded (Moehrle et  al. 2013). Daim and Oliver in 2008 postulated one of the essential objectives of TRM as a provisional direction for the stakeholder involved in an undertaking to enable them to align their work structures (Daim et al. 2014). TRM classification types, in accordance with their objectives, include product and portfolio management, corporate and product technology, industry technology, and S&T roadmaps. A Study on TRM application for the renewable energy industry carried out by Daim et  al. describes Roadmaps in national, industry, and organizational classifications (Daim et al. 2014). The study inferred that the objectives and aims of the roadmaps for the Renewable energy sector can be distinguished at all stages of the classification. At the national stage, for instance, the emphases of the roadmap are placed on factors such as policy formation, environmental protection, energy security, and so on, while the organizational roadmaps are driven by profitability, sustainability, and other organization-specific goals (Daim et al. 2014). The diagram in Appendix 7.1.5 shows a generic Technology Roadmap model according to Phaal et al. in 2003.

7.3.3 TRM in Industry Application In many aspects of the industry, such as manufacturing, software development energy, information and communication systems, health care, defense and aerospace, transportation, and environmental protection, TRM has been applied with overwhelmingly relevant and indispensable outcomes (Carvalho et al. 2013). Many of these outcomes have been responsible for a significant increase in the application of TRM across the globe in the past decade. In the energy sector, for example, where a significant amount of research activities in TRM application has been observed, about 170 publicly available Roadmaps have been identified (Zhang et al. 2014). In comparison to other aspects of industry and policy such as computing as well as in the governmental sector, the claim can be made that the energy sector alone accounts for the largest number of publicly available Technology Roadmaps (Geum et al. 2011).

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7.3.4 RCH Systems Industry Framework for SSA The Preliminary industry framework research involves the description of the conditions, scope definition, and limitations for the application of RCH systems in SSA. Profiles of the focus areas in the SSA region (Nigeria and South Africa) as well as the WE region (Germany and the UK) are outlined. These serve as groundwork for developing the Technology Roadmap. As an initial assessment, the growth potential of the RCH Systems Industry market in SSA are enumerated in conjunction with some research outcomes with respect to existing RCH systems characteristics and growth figures in Western Europe. 7.3.4.1 Application Considerations and Outline of Industry Analysis Tools This part identifies the critical targets and system requirements, major technological implementation areas, and specific business drivers. Some strategies which the industry players would need to adopt for in-depth feasibility studies for RCH in SSA are discussed. These analyses are carried out according to the prevailing knowledge and encyclopedic research of the regional technology market in SSA. They particularly cover the outlook for new technologies being introduced for the first time in SSA, which, however, has been proven to be implementable in other regions of the world, in WE specifically. In this project, the SWOT Analysis as a quantifying tool is utilized, placing the energy, and building industry in SSA into consideration and mentioning the salient aspects of policy, environment, and economy, as pertaining to RCH implementation. In addition, an advanced analysis of the business and organizational aspects of RCH systems is performed using the augmented framework of the P5F according to Isabella et al. 2021. In addition, a comparison is made with the conventional AC systems, which at present are the prevailing technologies in the SSA region and still hold significant share of the HVAC industry market in many regions of the globe. Supplementarily, the QFD assessment which itemizes the relationship between product features and market drivers, as well as link technology and product features is carried out. 7.3.4.2 Technology Roadmap Build-Up for RCH Systems in SSA This involves the development of a Technology Roadmap for RCH systems while identifying a specific product line suitable for SSA.  The product and technology segments that have the highest potentials for industry application are enumerated, in principle chilled beams, and cooling ceilings, which serve as the pivotal aspects roadmap. The technology features, product features, signified with TF and PF, respectively, as well as the regional aspects of the market are listed and discussed. The research method outlines the three phases of the Technology Roadmapping process according to the generic multilayer TRM diagramming. A methodical

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outline for RCH systems implementation in an unexplored regional market like SSA is illustrated in Appendix 7.1.6. The inferences and conclusion of the TRM strategy are discussed in the last chapter.

7.4 Business Drivers 7.4.1 Framework and Business Needs for RCH Systems Application Rampant increasing energy consumption and demand in various sectors of end-­ users, as well as high energy costs, are expected to create enormous challenges for consumers across private and industrial spaces. Energy components manufacturers are focusing on innovative products developments for balancing out the high energy costs and lowering consumption (Luo et al. 2016). These factors with consideration to the overall rising demand for clean energy and efficiency have been the driving force for the global RCH Market. Demand for RCH is expected to rise, largely due to new technological advancements in radiant systems thereby boosting the market in the coming decades. Currently, rising applications in residential and commercial buildings across Europe and North America are key factors that will drive up the demand for RCH systems. With consideration to the increasing awareness of climate change, eco-Innovative, and environment-friendly projects, green buildings which largely adopt new energy-efficient technologies, RCH systems will always remain relevant (TMR 2019). One main drawback, however, is the associated high costs with initial RCH systems installation; this could result in the market slowing down in the foreseeable future (TMR 2019).

7.4.2 Market Dynamics for RCH Technology The RCH systems market in terms of technology are classified into hydronic and electric systems. The hydronic segment has been responsible for much of the market share in previous years, as the hydronic systems incur lower operating costs and drive more efficiency in heat transfer. For the next decade, this segment is expected to remain dominant in the global RCH systems market. With respect to end-user application, the RCH systems market covers residential applications, commercial applications, and others (TMR 2019).

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7.4.3 Industry Leadership for RCH Systems The global RCH systems market is divided into five regional sections. Europe, comprising: Germany, UK, France, and others. North America, Asia Pacific comprising: China, India, Japan (Chiang et  al. 2012). South America, comprising: Brazil, Mexico, and others. Middle East & Africa which comprises the Gulf countries, South Africa, and others in SSA.  The order of dominance for the RCH systems market from the year 2019 up until 2027 according to transparency market research begins with Europe, followed by North America and then Asia pacific (TMR 2019). The array of developed economies in these regions assists in raising awareness. Consequent adoption of energy-efficient processes for modern and smart buildings are essential factors that will propel RCH systems further in the next decades. The markets for RCH systems in the Asia Pacific and Middle East & Africa have been projected to significantly expand in the coming decades. Consumers in these regions are becoming increasingly aware of the Energy efficiency, high-end comfort, and safety possibilities for the improved living experience offered by RCH systems (TMR 2019). There was a moderate concentration of the global RCH systems market in 2018 due to several large global players and regional operators taking over prominent market shares. These manufacturers offer a variety of end-user products while adopting various technologies and competitive market strategies. Major manufacturing operators include: Danfoss group, Zehnder group, REHAU, Emerson Electric, Uponor (TMR 2019). There are also a few regional medium-sized component manufacturers and assembly operators like Zent-Frenger, Beka, Lindner group, and others.

7.4.4 Energy Savings Considerations for RCH Systems in WE Increasing regulatory requirements for energy efficiency in the German energy sector has played a role in its energy transformation and climate protection. The two main aspects for energy management and consumption reduction are stipulated in the building envelope and domain of the Technical Building Equipment (TGA). The energy savings potential in the building domain has been widely studied and publicized, but the potential in the TGA domain still misses some strong highlighting aspects. In order to put this into perspective in the European energy space, the two main orders have been combined and integrated into the EU Buildings directive. The German Energy Savings Ordinance (EnEV) is one of such directives to be successfully implemented. The ordinance enabled stakeholders to calculate and determine the energetic characteristics of the building and building services domain. The EnEV has been replaced since November 2020 by the Building Energy act, Gebäudeenergiegesetz (GEG) which emphasizes energy savings in new building construction projects and places less focus on refurbishment of existing buildings. With the German Climate Protection Act coming into force in December of 2019,

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the ­building sector obtained new CO2 emission targets, and it postulates that between now and the year 2030, an emission reduction of 49% must be achieved in building energy supply. In WE, the long-term aim is to reach a stock of climate-neutral buildings in four decades’ time. Without a comprehensive energy management and optimization structure for existing buildings as well, and such only for new buildings, the goal cannot be reached. Existing building stocks comprising non-residential and residential buildings are receiving more attention, even though high consumption of energy has been generally accepted in industry, municipal, or public sectors. The need for improved energy management has been established as unavoidable (A. Höllen 2021).

7.4.5 Organizational and Application Considerations for RCH Systems in SSA Many of the organizations and firms which are into designing, manufacturing, and installation of RCH components with global presence have the larger of their market share and revenues coming from Europe, North America, and parts of Asia. Organizational presence in Africa is largely scanty, even though the geographical and location profile of the firms usually lumps the middle east together with Africa. SSA alone has the market potential and is large enough to be considered as a whole market region on its own. The maps outlined in Appendix 7.1.1 to 7.1.4 show the global RCH players (with revenues in the range of 1.2 billion euros to 4 billion euros in their RCH Business sector) like Emerson, Uponor, Viessmann, Rehau as published on the firm websites, and it can be clearly seen that the African continent including the SSA region has very minute representation on those maps. This project, in addition to a strategy and Technology Roadmap, provides insight into the viability of the African RCH market. This is achieved by highlighting the key aspects of the economic drivers that could help bring attention to the implementation possibilities in buildings in this region as well as the cases for eventual profitability for the RCH systems Industry stakeholders.

7.4.6 Market Navigation Principles: SWOT Analysis for RCH in the SSA Building Industry A SWOT analysis is made to highlight the focus-areas for RCH systems industry stakeholders, to guide their market entry decision and to possibly make feasible technology introduction forecasts for the SSA region. The SWOT analysis quadrant is outlined in Appendix 7.2.1. Further discussion of each quadrant is enumerated in the following subsection.

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7.4.6.1 Analysis of Strengths for RCH Systems Application of RCH systems in building designs and executions has the potential for contributing to the gradual phasing out of Fossil/Carbon fuels in building energy supply and technical building equipment servicing. For instance, due to the energy requirements to power the conventional air conditioning devices, many building operators in SSA require constant running of heavy-duty generators. In the RCH system driven by a geothermal heat-pump, only a limited amount of power is needed to run the pump, hence leading to the phasing-out of diesel generators and the embracing of cleaner power generation units like solar panels and other energy-­ saving equipment. RCH systems can be introduced closely in tandem with renewable energy, which presents environmental protection advantages. Renewable energy is only gradually being adopted in many locations in SSA. The RCH systems largely function on water-based thermodynamic systems which eliminate the need for refrigerants. Old refrigerants are for the large part damaging to the ozone layer and the immediate environment if not properly disposed of. Due to the typically hot climate in many countries in SSA like Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and so on, a significant capacity for building cooling is needed and technological innovations in this aspect is a given requirement. Cooling technologies in the RCH systems can easily fill this gap. There is a considerably large building construction market in SSA, and many of the economies are emerging with large projected economic and housing booms in the next decade, for instance, in South Africa and Nigeria. These prospects make these countries ripe for innovative development and with readiness to adopt RCH systems in the building and energy sectors of the economies. Many countries in SSA possess a young and significantly large workforce. This indicates a sufficient inland RCH component design and manufacturing capacity, which is as a merit in the argument for RCH systems introduction in SSA. 7.4.6.2 Analysis of Weaknesses for RCH Systems Cost effectiveness for RCH systems in the initial installation phase could be a challenge as components such as radiant cooling panels, piping, the structural support components, and heat pumps could be expensive at purchase. The system is, however, cheaper to operate in the long term. RCH systems can be relatively difficult to adapt and operate in parallel with other dominant conventional AC technologies. In SSA, there are non-existent or insignificant design and manufacturing capacities for the RCH systems. This would generate tight bottlenecks and require large investments during the early phases of the technology introduction. There is also Insufficient awareness of the viabilities of RCH systems for building applications. Many building planning consultants, architecture, and engineering design stakeholders lack the exposure to the complexities, accessibilities, and the opportunities for RCH systems for commercial and residential buildings in SSA. There is still a limited scale of economic and technological applications for Renewables like

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geothermal and solar energy. Most of the energy requirements are still being driven or fulfilled by fossil fuels. The Renewable energy sector in SSA must be developed to a recognizable extent before RCH systems can be fully implemented on a similar scale as in Western Europe. 7.4.6.3 Analysis of Opportunities for RCH Systems If the adoption and application of RCH systems significantly increase in the shortand medium-term, there exists a possibility of this technology being a tremendously disrupting factor for the conventional AC systems market. This implies that the RCH systems market would take up huge chunks of the market share, possibly more than is obtainable in western Europe. With the introduction of RCH technologies in SSA, there will be a corresponding policy shift which will in turn encourage investment in and development of the geothermal energy supply industry, as relating to the RCH systems for buildings. In SSA countries like Nigeria, there are large housing deficits, both for residential and commercial spaces which indicate a huge revenue generation potential for RCH systems. This system has the potential to hold a large share of the HVAC market in SSA. Many emerging and rapidly growing economies in SSA are fertile grounds for technological innovations, R&D, and manufacturing in the building sector. There are large untapped markets and industries with demand for new technologies such as in building equipment and servicing. The introduction and adoption of RCH systems will also influence labor policies in the industrial and construction categories while generating employment in the RCH components design, manufacturing, installation, and servicing. 7.4.6.4 Analysis of Threats for RCH Systems Competing systems like the AC (mostly Split systems), Air Handling Units (AHUs) have dominated the HVAC market in SSA for decades. It would be a hard time to turn the industry and convince stakeholders about the merits of RCH systems, introduce the accompanying technologies, and ultimately take on the market. Due to the typically warm tropical climate in most nations of SSA, and hence the insignificant heating capacity requirements in the building industry, RCH systems might struggle to gain full acceptance as only the cooling aspects of the entire system would be adopted. Only a few locations in the region like the Jos Plateau in Nigeria which has a seasonal temperate climate (as temperatures drop below 10 °C) would require the heating performance of the RCH systems, unlike in Western Europe where both systems are applied interchangeably and more consistently. Policy-wise, in many countries in SSA which are reliant on Crude oil to drive their economies, legislative and energy policies which priorities fossil fuels cold serve as disadvantages which would eventually discourage the implementation of RCH systems. The conventional AC market, due to its longer existence in the region would have consolidated

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and the stakeholders might oppose or lobby legislators against the adoption of RCH systems and the accompanying Renewable energy constituents. There is an overall climate of investment deficiency, slow attitude and reluctance of external and internal investors, and global manufacturers to invest in industries in SSA other than Oil and gas, mining, and minerals. In the Building construction sector, for instance, there is a generally low private investor participation in SSA. This could be the bane of the RCH technology eventually becoming massively adopted and thriving in many countries in SSA.

7.4.7 Market Navigation Principles: PF5 Analysis of RCH and Conventional AC Systems in SSA An overlap of the SWOT analysis and the P5F assessment usually occur in research, while evaluating the attractiveness of commodity and technology markets. This intersection is, however, essential in the evaluation of assumptions made during analyses applying both methods (Fenwick et al. 2009). The P5F analysis in Table 7.1 compares two industries that are on a similar spectrum with one (RCH systems) having the potential to disrupt the primarily established market position of the other (conventional AC systems) in the HVAC market in SSA.

7.4.8 Main Drivers for the RCH Systems Technology D.1 Energy Savings  The Energy saving properties of the RCH systems is an aspect which makes the technology stand out, and also to an extent, outmaneuvers the conventional HVAC systems as a selling point. Considering the energy crisis which has been the bane of the SSA building industry growth, every potential for energy saving and optimization is always a welcome development. Such savings ultimately translate to lower energy and building operating costs, as well as more efficient building cooling and heating which will also assist in driving and expanding the RCH technology market. D.2 Environmental Protection  RCH technologies do not utilize refrigerants for heat exchange, neither as cooling apparatuses in most cases. Refrigerants in the category of CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons), such as R410a are highly potent and dangerous greenhouse gases, which damage the ozone layer and the environment in general. The thermodynamic aspect of the RCH system employs for the most part geothermal heat pumps for thermal exchange. This confers an angle for an environmental protection proponent in favor of the RCH systems, in contrast with conventional air conditioning systems.

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Table 7.1  P5F table for RCH and conventional AC systems comparison (Structure based on Augmented P5F Framework by Isabelle et al. 2020) P5Forces RCH systems 1. Threats of new Threat level—low entrants. • High capital-intensity for components production. • Larger industry organizations and corporations acquiring startups and small players restricts growth of new firms. • Volatile market for commodities as well as strict regulations, legal and normative requirements. • Competition being mostly a battle among existing large industry players. 2. Bargaining Threat level—high power of buyers. • Products from most manufacturers are largely non-differentiable. • Buyer size grants component producers a significant degree of market power, especially using build, operate and maintain contracts. • A regional currency behavior derivative grants price advantages to certain geographical regions over others. • High market power and demand are held by certain buyers who rely on specific segments, i.e., underfloor heating systems alone, thereby making them the largest regional buyers.

Conventional AC systems Threat level—moderate • Medium to low barriers to market entry. • Firms can remain globally competitive with minimal or no physical presence in many regions. • Firms outside the technology section can enter the market, i.e., small consumer electronics. • Small appliances businesses and producers have easier scalability and less capital intensity. Threat level—moderate • There are several options for consumers to select from, as many firms and producers participate in the market. • Pressure on manufacturers to continuously churn out innovative business and technological solutions. • Pressure on the AC manufacturers to fulfil the constantly evolving consumer expectations as well as cover the market, environmental, and regulatory obligations.

3. Bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat level—moderate • In medium or large-size open market economies, suppliers can utilize their high bargaining power to sabotage disruptive business models, i.e., as the RCH market threatens the conventional AC market. • Government regulatory agencies could also serve as suppliers as they grant important licenses and permits.

Threat level—moderate • A certain degree of industry specialization is needed in terms of components design and materials selection to service the RCH industry. • Supply of certain resources could be a challenge as finding skilled designers and installers for RCH and the related energy systems can be difficult.

(continued)

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Table 7.1 (continued) P5Forces 4. Threat of substitution.

RCH systems Threat level—low • Despite availability of material substitutes for RCH components, i.e., PEX, and Aluminum as thermal conducting profiles, other metal components like steel are essential parts of the assembly process. • There exists a bigger threat between the established metal material components and new generation advanced heat-conducting materials, and there is always a possibility of the new materials replacing the old as technology improves.

Conventional AC systems Threat level—high • Business can be easily conducted internationally and through most regions. • On the main manufacturing frontier, costs for switching production processes and re-machining are relatively low. • The emergence of many small-­ scale manufacturers that produce mini-devices, and generally cheaper products, i.e., Chinese productions make the marketplace more prone to substitutes, and cheaper products more ubiquitous. Threat level—High 5. Rivalry among Threat level—Low Existing • First come first serve basis for RCH • The rise of e-commerce, increased competition. rivalry among manufacturers and systems in underserved regions. The earliest companies to enter the market comparatively low business model take a large chunk of the early market costs have driven competition levels particularly high. shares. • Larger firms and corporations • Low to moderate competitive possess the required financial means landscape, especially in SSA where the multinational firms have only some to buy-out innovative start-up companies in the industry, thereby sales representations and neither granting them competitive production nor design capacities. advantages in the market. • Possible large costs in the initial development and exploration phase, as • The rise in coopetition also tend to spur a certain level of threat among well as financing of plant and competing industry players. production. These expenses however would be much quickly recuperated. • Firms which will effectively compete would either specialize within a particular location, use a unique heat-exchanging component, or try and utilize product and geographical diversification. • Scalability of production operations and the resulting savings in expenses tend to favor mostly the bigger industry players by virtue of acquisitions or natural expansion.

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146 Table 7.1 (continued) P5Forces RCH systems P5F Augmentation aspect Threat level—High 6. Competitor’s level of • Technological inputs in the RCH innovativeness. systems have not alternated much in the past decades. Firms with the best systems innovations tend to take the upper hand in the industry and dominate the regional markets. 7. Threat of Threat level—Moderate Digitalization. • IoT as a new digitalization trend is becoming increasingly integrated into RCH systems. With progressive entry into new markets, the Digitalization trend would also flow along with the technology. Threat level—low 8. Exposure to globalization. • Globalization in this sense presents immense advantages for technology acceptance and market openness. Organizations can in essence explore further unreached regions of the globe for business penetration, energy policy influence and technology transfer. • This will also encourage new firms starting up and new technological branches of the industry springing up, while encouraging competition and innovation. 9. Industry exposure to regulatory activities.

Conventional AC systems

Threat level—High • Innovative transformations are being consistently observed in the conventional AC systems industry. For instance, in the field of compact devices with indoor air purification or dehumidifying functions. Threat level—Moderate • For the HVAC industry in general, conventional AC systems occupy the top spot for overall digitalization and the infusion of IoT in buildings, especially in the large commercial buildings sector. Threat level—Moderate • Globalization of the HVAC industry could be advantageous for conventional AC systems, even though the technology is already ubiquitous. The main threat lies in the introduction of climate friendlier components and general backlash against Ozone layer-damaging refrigerant compounds, and the real possibility of RCH systems coupled with renewable energy systems disrupting the global HVAC industry. Threat level—High Threat level—Moderate • The conventional AC systems • Impact of regulation can be industry enjoys the privilege of tremendous as regarding business being around for a long time, profitability and ultimate survival. preceding RCH systems in terms of Most of the worlds’ developed and rapid research technological emerging economies appear to view modern climate-saving energy policies advancement as well as wide acceptance. Despite its few in a positive light, and therefore tend demerits, policy makers and to legislate in support of new regulatory agencies have shown sustainable technologies, eventually reluctance in implementing favoring RCH systems. systemic overhauls of the industry, not even for the sake of climate protection.

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D.3 Builders and Building Operators Assessment  In certain quarters, builders and property investors tend to favor RCH systems by virtue of its serviceability, the composition of few mechanical or moving parts and the consequent durability and low operating costs. There are also quite minimal maintenance and repair efforts required over the product lifetime. This characteristic has the potential to raise the marketability and sustainability appeal of the technology to the building industry stakeholders. D.4 End-Users’ Selection and Interests  End users such as homeowners, commercial, and office space users belong to the select group of stakeholders and opinion leaders who review the functionality and indoor comfort levels of RCH systems. Due to the radiant nature of cooling ceilings, chilled beams, and underfloor heating, for example, higher levels of comfort are usually reported by end-users, in comparison with conventional air handling and air conditioning systems. D.5 Initial Installation Cost Function  There exists a function of high initial purchase and installation costs, which is a recurrent aspect as at the current degree of technological advancement and innovation for RCH systems. This still remains a point of contention for HVAC industry stakeholders. With advancing product technologies and with the advent of lighter, cheaper, and environmentally friendlier thermomechanical materials, installation costs are projected to continue to steadily decrease as the industry advances into the near future. D.6 HVAC Industry Expansion in View of the SSA Market  The HVAC industry in SSA in terms of local manufacturing and servicing capacity is for the large part still in the infantile stage. As itemized in Appendix 7.1.1 to 7.1.4, some of the largest industry players in the RCH field have no sales or production presence in the region. The world’s largest producers for conventional AC systems like Samsung, LG, Carrier, and more, many of which are also general consumer and household electronics manufacturers have significant sales presence in the SSA region. The proposed roadmap and the consequential advent of RCH systems technology in SSA will undoubtedly contribute to the growth of the HVAC industry as a collective. Such expansion will exert a direct influence on local manufacturing capacities, jobs creation, and the overall regional economy, while shoring up private investment in the building industry alongside (Fig. 7.1).

Fig. 7.1  Business drivers section of the technology roadmap

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7.5 RCH Products 7.5.1 Background of RCH Systems Radiant cooling and heating (RCH) systems are HVAC classified technologies. These systems, generally, are designed as a means of heat exchange, via radiation while interacting with the built environment in which they are installed (ISO 11855). A Specific technology can only be categorized as RCH if about 50% to 60% of its heat exchange with the closed-system or environment occurs through radiation (Rhee and Kim 2015). RCH addresses moderate source temperatures, which is usually applied in heating or cooling of indoor environments and composed of relatively large surface objects which are internally heated or cooled using hydronic and electrical means (ASHRAE 2012). Integration with modern energy supply sources like geothermal energy, i.e., heat pumps, is also possible (Krajčík et al. 2016). The water temperatures are usually held at near room temperature; the system can be advantageous with respect to the thermal retention capacity of the structure (Kazanci et al. 2019). For a typical cold ceiling and warm floor, the coefficient of heat transfer varies between 9 W/m2 K and 11 W/m2 K, contingent upon the observed ­temperature differences in the room and on the radiant surfaces (Tang et al. 2017). In the radiant cooling system, chilled water is circulated through floors, walls, and beams. The radiant cooling capacity depends on factors such as insulation, fluid flow rates, pipe spacing, and so on (Jordan et al. 2019). Further merits of the RCH system are the draft-free heat dissipation without dust turbulence as no fans or blowers are used, as well as comfort through the heat radiation principle (Nemethova et al. 2017).

7.5.2 Research Trends on RCH Systems It has been found through historical and archaeological research that RCH originated thousands of years ago, particularly radiant heating systems (Bean et  al. 2010). Further historical backgrounds and current trends of technology in RCH systems are obtainable in building and environment articles. The classical origins of RCH are traceable to the Roman hypocaust in Europe which served as hot combustion gas supply sources that flow through floors and walls of building structures (Bansal 1998). The origin chronicles of RCH systems also suggest various other historical heat transfer procedures such as solar chimney and solar air collectors and even the modern HVAC systems. The Korean Ondol which has been in application since about 400 B.C. has also been identified as a traditional RCH method that utilizes combustion gases to heat up flooring stones. Since the mid-1970s, however, the underfloor heating systems have been mainly water-based in an attempt to improve the indoor climate and resource-fuel efficiency (Rhee and Kim 2015). During the early application stages for RCH systems, usage was mostly in cold climates in East Asia as heating systems (Shen et  al. 2017). In hot and humid

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climates, however, preventing condensation on Radiant surfaces has become a topical issue to address due to the dewpoint in tropical climates typically exceeding the chilled ceiling surface temperature. The skepticism of water condensation has been a deterring factor in the commercial acceptance of the Radian cooling ceiling systems (Cai Wei 2016). To prevent this phenomenon during operation, an array of research areas has been enumerated and clarified, especially regarding systems configuration and control. RCH systems show improved functionality when integrated with parallel ventilation systems, as radiant systems can only cater for “Sensible load”. Decoupled cooling systems, after extensive laboratory investigations, has been used in practice. RCH systems for building separate ventilation and conditioning by utilization of an independent ventilation system while treating the regular cooling load (Park and Krarti 2016). Ventilation by desiccation is often combined with radiant cooling systems to allow for dehumidification of incoming air, which works effectively against the condensation of water on cooled surfaces (Zhang and Niu 2003). RCH systems has in recent times seen increased application in commercial buildings, residential buildings, educational as well as large facilities such as airport terminal buildings. With possibilities for combination with conventional ventilation systems to augment latent cooling load requirements, RCH has been shown to be applicable in humid, hot, and temperate climates (Moreno Santamaria et al. 2020). The myriad of advantages includes low consumption of energy, lownoise operation, high possibility to integrate into standard building elements in the design phase. These have been a motivating factor in the exploration of RCH systems with respect to the system configuration, comfort, energy and heat-transfer simulation, control methods, and more. Some drawbacks to the RCH systems include: non-­simplified control for TABS, capital intensiveness, higher required cooling load in contrast with conventional AC systems, as well as issues with acoustics (Krajčík and Šikula 2020).

7.5.3 RCH Systems Function: Description Some of the usual terms for RCH systems which are being fundamentally assessed and have been applied in practice include adiant cooling and heating ceilings, TABS, concrete core activation. These systems are described as follows: 7.5.3.1 Cooling and Heating Ceilings Radiant ceilings generally refer to suspended, sound-absorbing ceilings which are applicable for both heating and cooling of indoor spaces (Rhee et al. 2017). The radiant ceiling works, as the name implies, by means of radiation. Warm water or cool water flows through conductive piping material like copper on the underside of the panel, which is usually also inlayed by Aluminum heat transfer profiles of specific dimensions. Through these radiation cycles the temperatures of the elements in

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the building space drop or increase as required. The average temperature of the surface temperature of enclosing elements in a space and the ambient air is known as the sensation temperature, and it is an important factor in the function of radiant ceilings. The temperature for a cooling ceiling system is usually below the room air temperature and maintained. This is done by closed circuits of cooled water. Since the latter must not fall below a certain temperature (around 16 °C to prevent condensation from forming), natural resources such as groundwater can ideally be used for pre-cooling. However, there is already a cooling ceiling that works with pre-cooling temperatures of 8–10  °C without causing condensation. Here, a special infrared-­ permeable foil membrane keeps the moist room air away from the cooled surface. This novel technology was developed and patented in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute (Shinoda et al. 2019). High differences between perceived temperature and room temperature of 1.5 Kelvin—2 Kelvin are realized only by cooling systems with a high proportion of radiation. This creates a comfortable room climate. A high proportion of radiation depends not only on the cooling ceiling design itself, but also on a large, cooled surface, which must be in radiation exchange with the heat-emitting persons and objects (in visual contact). Cooling capacities of up to approx. 100 W/m2 are easily achieved with radiant cooling ceilings. In contrast to heating, the water temperature cannot be set as low as desired during cooling, ­otherwise there is a risk of dew formation. This is because the air can only absorb a certain amount of water vapor, depending on the temperature. The higher the air temperature, the more water vapor it can absorb. Once the saturation limit is exceeded, the water vapor precipitates in the form of water. There is also a space-­ saving advantage to radiant ceilings as no air ducts are built into the ceiling space and no large radiation elements are used which could limit useful space. A functional description for cooling ceilings and an exemplary three-dimensional cross section of cooling ceilings are shown in Appendices 7.3.1 and 7.3.2. 7.5.3.2 Chilled Beams Chilled Beams are RCH devices that distribute air and contain integrated coils and usually build as single units with the appearance of a beam. They are classified as active and passive chilled beams. The active types have ductwork integrated into them which supplies the pressurized plenum in the device with primary air, which is discharged via induction vents, hence ventilate the indoor space. Active chilled beams are generally only required when sensible ventilation, heating, and cooling via a single device unit is needed (ASHRAE 2012). The passive chilled beams are the types which supply no primary air, have no ducts, and do not utilize any fan operated equipment for the air portion that runs through the coil. These passive devices rely on the natural force of gravity and air buoyancy to draw induction air through the coil. Passive chilled beams are highly useful in spaces where high heat loads are generated by people and processes, like in laboratories, particularly when high pressure and ventilation level changes are detected, without supplying

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supplementary airflow. Chilled beams are renowned for being spatially adaptable, energy efficient, and having low initial equipment and material costs (ASHRAE 2012). 7.5.3.3 TABS (Thermally Active Building Component Systems) In the TABS system, radiant components are integrated into the room surfaces, by means of heating or cooling water which utilizes the concrete the concrete core in the building mass to store and transfer thermal energy. Ceilings, floors, and walls make a significant contribution toward cooling as well as covering a building’s basic heating load. Fundamentally, TABS function by the activation of building mass and the inherent cooling and heating properties of the building material which facilitate elemental temperature control in the building. Appendix 7.3.3 enumerates the diagram describing the TABS Function principle. The main argument points for TABS efficiency stem from its elimination of the individual and vastly different room temperature regulation and load requirement. Instead, the entire mass of the building plays the role of temperature regulation in an organic and functional manner. Water as a radiant thermal energy transfer medium utilizes significantly less amount energy than the fan component in the conventional HVAC system, precisely, less than 5% of the energy. Water holds a larger amount of energy per given unit than air, hence a relatively less amount of energy to pump that same amount through air is required by means of water. Air is less dense than Water, which can be translated in essence to mean that thermal energy transfer can occur in buildings at much greater efficiency while requiring significantly less space. TABS for this reason is highly applicable for commercial scenarios as well. The operating costs of TAB Systems are less in comparison to conventional HVAC systems, especially when building on a large-industrial scale. Maintenance needs are also much less for TABS, and consequently associated with low maintenance costs. Concrete Core Activation (CCA) Concrete core activation, or concrete core temperature control (CCTC), is the term used to describe heating or cooling systems in which water-bearing pipes run through walls, ceilings, or floors and use the storage masses of these components to regulate the building temperature. Due to the much larger transfer surfaces compared to conventional radiators, the systems already provide significant power to the room at low over- or under-temperatures of the heating or cooling water (18° to 22 °C or max. 27° to 29 °C). So heating and cooling can be done with regeneratively provided heat and cold, e.g., with geothermal energy. In summer, the radiant energy can be used directly, only for the distribution of the cooling energy would additional energy be needed. In winter, a heat pump raises the existing temperature of the radiant energy to the required higher level.

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Areas of Application  In new buildings, the systems are suitable for both sole and supplementary space heating or cooling. For old or existing buildings, a set-in concrete is usually out of the question. Retrofit systems, such as underfloor capillary tube mats or Velcro-fix systems that can be plastered under the ceilings or in the floors, produce a similar effect. Peak loads can also be compensated for by a ventilation system, if necessary. Design and Construction  For CCA, the building can be divided into zones to temper the different sections according to design requirements. CCA systems are best designed with the help of a thermal building and system simulation. The installation of piping for concrete core temperature control must be infused into the sequence of concrete reinforcement and formwork. At intervals of 10–30 cm, the pipes are usually laid in a meandering or spiral pattern within the statically neutral zone of the concrete slab and concreted in place as shown in Appendix 7.3.4 and 7.3.5. 7.5.3.4 Conventional AC Systems for Comparison The conventional AC system functions by taking advantage of a simple scientific process known as phase conversion, where a specialized liquid is converted to a gas. As the process runs, heat is absorbed from the surrounding space. In the air ­conditioning device, the process of heat absorption and cool air expulsion is repeated in a continuous cycle. There are variations in individual AC systems in accordance with specific manufacturer setting and design. For instance, in residential building use and in commercial use like in hotels, they, however, share commonalities in the basic operational principles. Some of the inherent system components include refrigerants, which are carefully selected liquids in the class of CFC or PCC, for instance, R-10, R-11. These liquids possess the chemical capability to convert to gas at very low temperatures. The Evaporator coil is the actual converter of the liquid refrigerant to gas, and the compressor places the gas under high pressure, enabling heat expulsion. The condenser coil liquifies the refrigerant gas, thereby cooling it down and preparing it to go through another cycle. The Fans move air through the whole AC system. A simplified representation of the AC cycle is shown in Appendix 7.3.6. One key aspect of the cooling process is the absorption of heat by the refrigerant which transforms it into a gaseous state. This process must be continuous as the device cycles the refrigerant through a loop of components, otherwise the system lifespan would be quite short. The refrigerant passes through a compressor, and heat energy is generated under the high-pressure conditions. This high-pressure gas then condenses, and the heat is expelled from the refrigerant, hence converting it back to liquid. An inclusive external component, usually with a fan, blows the heat out into open space outside, and the cooled refrigerant returns to the evaporator where the cycle begins again.

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7.5.4 RCH Product Features PF.1 Compact Design for Cooling Ceilings  The design of cooling ceiling panels and the cooling registers are usually compact and space saving. Some units can be suspended as high as 10 cm from bottom edge of the ceiling. The supporting structures or metal frames are also practical and easily attached to the underside of the concrete or wooden ceiling. Many product variants also offer the possibility of utilizing flexible piping for distribution of the fluid medium. PF.2 Light-Weight Component Materials  Conductive materials like steel and aluminum are utilized as thermal and heat transfer profiles. Aluminum which is much lighter is usually the main choice material. Copper piping as well as PEX piping is laid in the thermal profiles in a meander form due to the impressive thermal conductivity and lightness. Copper piping and Aluminum thermal conduction profiles are generally lightweight, relative to other conductive metals. PF.3 Aesthetic Flexibility  Some RCH products, mainly ceilings, offer aesthetical flexibility on a surface level. Ceiling panels with wooden or glossy finishes and similar are possible. Users can select certain ranges of design features within a safe framework of mechanical design limitations. PF.4 Affordability  RCH systems components could be only a bit more cost intensive as conventional AC systems, depending on relative scale. Cooling ceilings are usually priced in per square meter units, eventual pricing depends on the specific product selected and its intended function. For example, if the cooling capacity is 30 W/m2, costs of about 200 € per square meter should be expected. With a higher cooling load of 90 W/m2, costs of around 300 € per square meter should be expected. There are radiant ceiling systems that possess hybrid heating and cooling components with multidimensional functions in one set-up. PF.5 Standard Products Selection  RCH ceilings offers a limited but diverse and unique assemblage of standard product options. This presents certain degrees of advantages such as easy renovations and extensions, as well as upgrade-installations possibilities for different building types. PF.6 Customization Options  The cooling ceiling components offer significant possibilities for customization. This feature allows for a great array of adjustments, custom feasibilities, and applications for various building types. PF.7 Hybridization Possibilities  Cooling ceilings and chilled beams possess the characteristic of being combinable with air circulation and ventilation units. That means the RCH systems can optimally coexist with ventilation systems in the same building unit or structure, thereby enabling the feasibilities for hybridization.

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PF.8 Pipework Optimization  In the design phases, the piping system can be optimized for improved heating and cooling efficiency, as well as in savings of piping materials and other components. The pipe network can also be meandered around obstacles in the ceiling like light fittings, support columns, and similar hanging components in a building’s interior. PF.9 Minimal Attrition  In general, RCH systems including cooling ceilings and chilled beams contain minimal to no moving or contact friction parts, which could be subjected to medium- and long-term attrition or wear and tear. This characteristic also improves the system serviceability and longevity. PF.10 Diffusion: Proof  Radian cooling ceilings offer completely diffusion-tight installation. Therefore, no system separation or splitting of water circuits is required, thus saving from heat exchanger and related energy loss, as well as making a double circulation pump irrelevant.

7.5.5 Quality Function Deployment for RCH Systems (QFD) A comprehensive review of the RCH industry practices in WE have been carried out as a representation of the customers/users’ aspect of the QFD. In addition, an oral interview of a specific focus group of energy planners, building operators, and design engineers in the RCH industry in WE have been collated. The QFD is a tool applied in the quantification of Technology Roadmap contents, while giving precedence the technologies and the product features. Appendix 7.4.1 shows the theoretical framework for the QFD which is integrated with the TRM and to itemize the various correlating contents and layers of the roadmap. In this tool, one set of parameters are prioritized as illustrated in the Matrix structure, which are the “Parameters to be evaluated” with the correlating parameters. The correlating parameters are differentiated with respect to the weight of their relative importance or precedence. Furthermore, both parameters on the matrix are compared and the correlations between them are classified as low, medium, high, or none (Bielsky and Daim 2021). Consequently, the multiplication of each correlating factor, the weight of the corresponding parameter, and the eventual sum of these parameter values equate the precedence value of the feature or characteristic being evaluated. The conclusive precedence value for each evaluated parameter set are classified as low, medium, and high precedence (Bielsky and Daim 2021). The following sub-­sections itemize the application of the QFD tool in the framework of RCH systems technologies by assessing the product features priorities in correlation with the market drivers. Additionally, the tool is also applied in evaluating the technologies’ priorities as they correlate with product features. The eventual inference from these is to itemize which product and technology features will assist in accelerating the introduction and implementation of RCH system technologies in buildings in SSA.

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7.5.5.1 Product Features and Market Drivers QFD The Precedence of product features as elaborated in the QFD matrix is enumerated in Appendix 7.4.2. Table 7.2 itemizes the product features identification, and brief descriptions of the features as well as their calculated priorities or precedence. The market drivers which are further elaborated upon in Sect. 7.4.8 include energy savings, environmental protection, operators’ assessment, end-users’ selection, installation costs, and the HVAC industry growth. The drivers are assigned certain weights which indicates their significance, as illustrated in the QFD Matrix in Appendix 7.4.2. The weight with the lowest significance carries the value of 1, the value 2 indicates medium significance, and 4 indicates high significance. The weights dispense support in the QFD process quantification and feature prioritization for the consequent Roadmap. It can be deduced from the table that the product features with high- and medium-­ QFD precedence are mainly the affordability and hybridization possibilities, as well as the aesthetics, standard selections customization, lightweight components, and pipework optimization, respectively. The compact design, minimal attrition, and diffusion-proof features are low in relative precedence.

Table 7.2  Product features and brief descriptions with their calculated priorities Designation Product feature PF.1 Compact design PF.2 PF.3

Lightweight components Aesthetics

PF.4

Affordability

PF.5

Standard product selections Customization options Hybridization possibilities Pipework optimization

PF.6 PF.7 PF.8

PF.9

Minimal attrition

PF.10

Diffusion-proof

Feature description The compact nature of cooling ceilings means they require minimal space to install. Copper piping and Aluminium thermal conduction profiles are relatively lightweight. Cooling ceilings and chilled beams can be designed such that they provide aesthetical effects in building spaces. RHC systems are priced in m2, and costs are usually tailored to operators/users’ requirements. A limited but diverse and unique assemblage of product options. There exists an array of custom applications for various building types. Cooling ceilings and chilled beams can be combined with small air circulation systems. The piping can be optimised for efficiency and material savings in the various phases of design. There are minimal mechanical moving parts in the systems that could be subjected to attrition. Diffusion-tight installation is achievable, reducing energy loss and simplifying the circulatory design.

QFD Precedence 10 15 12

28

12 14 26 16

9 11

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Table 7.3  Technology features and the feature descriptions with their calculated priorities Designation Technology feature TF.1 IoT and Connectivity TF.2 Renewable Energy integration TF.3 Low energy usage

TF.4 TF.5

Modular installation Simplified Schematics

TF.6

Durability and Serviceability

TF.7

Technology Flexibility

TF.8

Indoor Space comfort

TF.9

Advanced Acoustics

Feature description Remote and Internet-based operation of the indoor components of RHC systems. Geothermal energy as the main source for the systemic thermodynamic exchange. Few mechanical components requiring power, typically just the heat pump and the control unit. Modular components manufacturing to facilitate light transportation and Installation. The functional schematics and operational models can be simplified and made easily explanatory. RHC systems components are durable and easily replaceable, offering superb serviceability. The RHC technology can be combined, supplemented, and upgraded with other HVAC systems. Efficient thermodynamic exchange by virtue of stable Temperature differences “Delta(Δ) T” Components like perforated metal, plasterboard ceilings etc. possess unique sound absorbent characteristics.

QFD Precedence 13 20 18

27 19

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Fig. 7.2  Business drivers and Product features section of the Technology Roadmap

7.5.5.2 Technology and Product Features QFD The Precedence of the technology features as elaborated in the QFD matrix is enumerated in Appendix 7.4.3. Table 7.3 itemizes the product features identification, and brief descriptions of the features as well as their calculated priorities. It can be seen in the table that the technology features with the high-QFD priorities are the modular Installation, durability, and comfort. The features with medium- and low-­ QDF precedence are Renewable energy integration, advanced acoustics, schematics, flexibility, and low energy usage, as well as IoT and connectivity, respectively (Fig. 7.2).

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7.6 RCH Technologies 7.6.1 Applicable RCH Systems Technology for SSA, the Case for Cooling Ceilings Assessing the effects and possible impacts of prospective changes in the HVAC industry through the advent of new technologies in uncharted markets, like the RCH systems in the SSA region, requires the exploration of major parts of the criteria for introducing the new technology (Lee et al. 2015). According to a series of research on heating and cooling outputs and simulations, heating aspects of RCH systems tend to be more applicable in temperate climates (Drojetzki and Wojtkowiak 2018). Cooling ceilings and chilled beams are by the reason of the mostly tropical and warm climate of the SSA region likely the RCH system components and product types to be initially and more widely adopted. To this effect, the proposed roadmap will be drawn with respect to this specific product technology.

7.6.2 Technology Features TF.1 IoT and Connectivity Features  Recent advancements in connectivity systems and the Internet-based control systems, particularly IoT for buildings, has made RCH systems more appealing and convenient to use. Cooling ceilings and underfloor heating equipment can be remote operated across vast buildings spaces with the aid of advanced temperature regulation and hydraulic control apparatus. TF.2 Renewable Energy Integration  RCH systems are one of the befitting technologies in the HVAC systems assemblage that can be directly infused with the renewable energy mechanisms like geothermal energy. The mechanics can be operated entirely and derivatively by groundwater, which only requires a geothermal heat pump, and serves primarily as the heat exchanger. TF.3 Low Energy Usage  The RCH system generally consumes less energy in the operational phase than the conventional AC system and many other counterparts in the HVAC industry. Radiant cooling ceilings that operate with geothermal heat pumps, for instance, only require power to run the pumps that circulate the water through the internal piping in the ceiling panels. TF.4 Easy Modular Installation  For the most part, Radiant cooling ceilings are produced in modular units, which facilitates convenient transportation to building site, as well as smooth installation. This technology feature, however, does not eliminate the need for specialized workmanship or expertise for installation, as well as attention to details.

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TF.5 Simplified Functional Schematics  The structure of the mechanical, hydraulic, and thermodynamic systems can be directly simplified to their basic functional principles. This gives builders, property investors, and the actual building users an insight into the operations of the selected RCH equipment, hence allowing for the development of transparent maintenance regimens, and for improved operability. TF.6 High Durability and Serviceability  RCH equipment in buildings have been shown to be durable and to also possess serviceability periods as extensive as any other HVAC components in various built structures with technical and energy ­supply equipment. The components are easily inspected, cleaned, and replaced; they also generally do not deplete quickly. TF.7 Technology Flexibility  The cooling ceiling components have significant flexibility in terms of applicability and possibilities for combination with other HVAC equipment and components. For instance, cooling ceilings and chilled beams can also function as wall-built vertical units, which creates an avenue to combine the system with air inlet and circulation units, as well as compact mechanical room ventilation components. The flexibility enables complete freedom in room design, as there are no radiators or fan coil units to be considered on the wall or in the floor. TF.8 Indoor Space Comfort  This creates a certain degree of thermodynamic advantage over regular AC systems, with a user-sensation temperature range of 1.5 Kelvin–2 Kelvin. Due to the isothermal nature and supply of the cooling and heating capacity, the scheme presents a respectable level of comfort in a room as there is no noticeable air circulation and convectional temperature regulation. Very short response time (10–20 min, depending on the type) in cooling and heating, so there is no risk of overheating the rooms, as with underfloor heating, or undercooling. Since a large surface area is activated, cooling is evenly distributed over the entire room area, with little temperature difference between room and surface cooling temperatures. TF.9 Advanced Acoustics  Cooling ceilings usually possess high acoustic properties. As options for the acoustic density selection are perforated metal panels in any size, seamless plasterboard ceilings. Island solutions or combined plaster, metal ceilings with acoustic inlays can also be chosen.

7.7 Resources for RCH Systems Implementation 7.7.1 Resources and Avenues for R&D Massive Research and Development (R&D), institutional participation, and research funding are essential to propel and sustain the RCH industry in SSA, as currently obtains in WE, for instance. The Fraunhofer institute, which supports major science

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and technology projects across several industries in engineering research, innovative product development and improvement, materials science, and so on, is one of the R&D institutes with extensive research portfolio in RCH systems. For the technology to thrive in the SSA region through continuous research and product enhancements, such institutions need to be replicated in the region. This will no doubt generate a corresponding effect on consumer confidence, market, and technological growth.

7.7.2 Criteria for Technology Introduction Regional Partnerships  Global manufacturers of RCH components from Europe and North America like Uponor and Emerson can start with establishing partnerships with local companies which install, service, and operate HVAC devices for buildings. Foreign and Local Investment  General interest and investment from building industry stakeholders plays a key role in technology adoption and expansion. These investments will help sustain the market, particularly pioneer industry participants. Such stakeholders comprise property investment and development firms. When such a firm takes the lead in the integration of RCH components in their new buildings development or in renovating existing buildings, other firms in the industry will tend to follow suit. This gesture will help the hesitant stakeholders overcome the skepticism and realize the benefits and cost effectiveness of RCH systems. Marketing, Publicity, and Advertisement  Consultants in Architecture and engineering design organizations are influential targets for raising awareness and advertising for RCH systems for the new market and inland building sector. These consultants usually deal with building standards regularization and the preparation of necessary documentations for official approval. This is realized with regards to structural, utilities, and building equipment details, from the responsible building and town planning agencies and institutions. Prevailing Building Energy Supply Regulations  The prevailing governing rules and government-enforced standards for building energy blueprint design, as well as the overall environmental protection and energy management policies, must be at least favorable toward the RCH technology. Technology Perception and Acceptance  The combined customer base for RCH systems like private, small-scale building owners, governmental and public building operators, and the actual building users should have an overwhelmingly positive perception of the technology. They should be adequately convinced of about how the benefits such as long-term operating costs outweigh the initial capital intensity and possibly high installation costs.

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Local Production and Scaling Capacity  Local production capacity is essential in the long run, at least for the core materials that go into the components. For instance, aluminum ceiling panels, copper or PEX piping, steel structural support members, and so on, in principle, elements that go into the core installation components. This will also help build local manufacturing capacity, reduce overall dependence on importation, and boost the immediate local economy. Local Know-How and Custom Expertise  In addition to building up local capacity and scaling up components production in whichever specific region the RCH technology is being introduced, skilled workers will have to be trained in the mechanical, thermodynamic, and hydraulic components of the system. Both white- and blue-collar expertise can be derived from an upcoming and already budding RCH systems industry. As already obtains in Western Europe, a handful of small and medium enterprises have sprung up in the past years while expanding their capacities and developing their special brands and customized solutions for RCH systems. For instance, the designing and standardization of embossed cooling ceiling panels as well as spaced-out radiant and convection panels like the “Varicool Softline” brand by Zent-Frenger.

7.7.3 Special Aspects of the Regional SSA Market The Nigerian HVAC Market (M2) and the South African HVAC Market (M1) are two distinctive markets and should be treated as such. By virtue of the differences in economic and industrial outputs of these two nations, as well as the energy and building standards, RCH industry stakeholders need to consult, properly research, and understand the dynamics of the building sectors across national and regional lines. Fossil Fuel Industry Influence  Since RCH systems primarily function with geothermal energy supply, the long-serving fossil fuel industry, which has been the major source of energy supply in the SSA region will exert a certain degree of influence. An initial resistance from the fossil fuel industry and from stakeholders with vested interests must be anticipated. In large buildings with high utility needs which require, for instance, diesel generators as backup units to power the AHUs. The operators of such will in no time realize the advantage of Geothermal heat pumps coupled with RCH systems; this then takes the diesel generators and the accompanying fossil fuels out of operation. Government Bureaucracy, Legislation, and Incentives  In order for firms, foreign investors, and local industry partners to establish their positions in the market, their business policies must align with the laid-out standards by the regulators. Incentives such as import waivers, energy subsidies which encourage the RCH technology must be embraced. Industry stakeholders must demonstrate the willingness to take

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all necessary bureaucratic steps, as the case may be, to secure approval for local production or importation of RCH components. Private and Public Sector Stakeholder Involvement  The most important stakeholders in this case are the engineering consultants and designers for technical building equipment, architects that create building concepts, energy management consultants, employees of the government-run building licensing authorities, and the likes. A number of networking events like technology symposia, contact ­meetings with systems demonstrations, product presentations, and so on must be conducted to bring all stakeholders up to speed and foster support and a thriving environment for RCH technology. Some lobbying effort at certain local and state levels might be a necessity, especially concerning the regulatory aspects of renewable energy usage to drive the RCH systems market in the SSA region. Environmental Protection and Pollution Handling  This aspect, with respect to RCH systems, carries a positive representation, as the RCH technology through most part of the production utilizes sustainable and recyclable materials. Actual waste amounts generated is low, even in the installation phase. The technology has been promoted over the years in WE and in North America as a sustainable, climate-­ and environment-friendly set-up. This particularly in a regime of widespread science-­driven clamoring for urgent climate saving and pollution reduction measures in the face of extreme weather events and global warming. Carbon emissions in the components production and machining stages, like copper pipe extrusion and aluminum thermal profiles are also being steadily reduced. Ease of Business and Staffing  During normal production and installation operations, and general business performance for RCH systems in SSA, the staffing environment can be tremendously challenging for organizations. Particularly those introducing new technologies into an uncharted regional market. Finding and retaining the right talent, technical expertise, competent and trustworthy managers, employees, and representatives, should be one of the top three agenda for RCH industry players and organizations. Influence of the Prevailing Conventional AC Market  The conventional AC market has been established in the SSA region, for several decades, especially in Nigeria, and currently dominates the HVAC industry. For the RCH technology to be expressly embraced and assimilated into the market, stakeholders will have to study the dynamics of the AC market. They also would possibly have to emulate some of its characteristics and properly strategize on the methods for finding a common ground for the two sectors to compete in a healthy manner. The RCH technology possesses a degree of tendency to disrupt the conventional AC market in this region. RCH industry players must also anticipate massive resistance in this regard.

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7.7.4 Further Considerations 7.7.4.1 Environment and Climate Considerations Regarding Buildings Over 30% of the CO2 emissions in the EU emanate out of the building construction field. The building sector accounts for 40% of overall energy consumption sums, which poses as a potential menace to reduction efforts for climate-warming emissions in the EU. An European commission drafted a proposal which aims to decrease energy consumption by almost 2% every year up until the year 2030, which is twice as much as the existing requirement of about 1% reduction (Abnett 2021). An effective energy management is achievable via improved building insulation and efficient building cooling and heating systems installation. Currently, only about 1% of buildings are being renovated in Europe with the aim of higher energy savings. In the EU commission’s document, a minimum of 3% buildings renovation quota per year for each country is being imposed, particularly for public buildings like hospitals, social housing, schools, and government buildings, which amounts to over 700,000 buildings each year (Abnett 2021). It is, however, important to note that only 1% of about 260 million buildings in the EU are operated by the government, most are privately owned and operated, and about 10% are public buildings (Abnett 2021). In contrast, however, GHG emissions in many parts of the SSA region have been steadily rising. A slump in economic production led to a decrease in Nigeria’s GHG emission in the year 2009. This economic slump was as a result of the global financial crisis during that period (Hansen 2020). Governments in this region have committed themselves to reducing the emission rates, even though the policy interventions are not substantial or virtually absent. Nigeria committed to a climate goal in 2017, a 20% reduction in GHG emissions by the year 2030. First by ramping up solar energy generation, planting of trees, and the restoration of four million hectares area of forest. Emissions from burning fossil fuels and in the building-­ sector combined still rose by 17% in the past years, which in essence, frustrates the achievement of the set climate goals for the country. There is an overall lack of concrete direction and policies with respect to climate warming mitigation and GHG emissions reduction. Although there is no progress documentation yet, there are potentials for an emerging economic giant like Nigeria to develop effective policies and practices for emissions and energy management in the future (Hansen 2020). Renewable energy resources like geothermal energy abound in Nigeria, and these resources can be harnessed into energy supply for buildings, which will help raise the climate governance profile for the entire region and unveil the RCH systems market in SSA. In South Africa as well, the building sector operations, both commercial and residential, contribute more than 23% of CO2 emissions, both of which account for 10% and 8% of the emissions, respectively. Building materials manufacturing also contribute an estimated 5% of GHG emissions in the SSA region. Based on investment and growth trends in the building sector over the upcoming four decades, which is

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determined at about 2% per annum, the existing stock of buildings will double by the year 2050. Without proper checks and salient energy management policies in place, GHG emissions will likely increase twofold in the same period (Milford 2009). As a near-future outlook, applying modern technologies, it can be suggested that about 45% and 35% improved energy efficiencies can be achieved in both the new commercial buildings sector and the new residential buildings sector, respectively. Regardless of this, the ability to implement these revised energy practices in existing buildings remains a hurdle. The trend being observed in South Africa shows that only about 10% reduction in emissions and energy consumption in existing buildings is realistic. By the year 2050, it is estimated that 50% of annual GHG emissions would still emanate from existing buildings. In essence, the building sector, both for the commercial and the high to medium income residential buildings as well as the building materials manufacturing sector need to be specifically monitored with respect to GHG emissions reduction and improved energy management efficiency (Milford 2009). 7.7.4.2 Social and Political Considerations Political stability is the key to investor confidence, especially for nations attempting to drive technological development. Political scientists and economists have discussed the essential nature of stability in the political scene form economic growth of most countries and regions (Alesina et al. 1996). The definition of political stability encompasses four main dimensions, which covers a stable political system, a stable government, external stability, and internal rule of law (Paldam 1998). South Africa and Nigeria as emerging economies have certainly been affected by the overarching worldwide political turmoil which has disrupted nations in the past few decades. One of the ensuing aftermaths of those is the negative influence on investor confidence in the affected countries (Jacobs 2012). Instances of foreign investments, including vested foreign interests in SSA have facilitated continuous foreign investment in the region (Jacobs 2012). Long-standing and large investments from European corporations and large firms from the USA has indicated continued involvement and interest in the regional development of SSA with the international community’s support. Nigeria and South Africa have geo-political and strategic importance in the SSA region, and the international community’s bets on the stability of these two nations are high. In view of the global impact of the needed stability in SSA, the stabilizing and leading roles of these two countries and the positive projection for FDI cannot be overemphasized. There is always an economic dimension to political stability. Changes in the political space should also be accompanied by socio-economic changes, which normally would translate to meaningful improvements in the populace quality of life. Continuous and sustained political stability is expected to take center-stage in the selection of policy objectives to drive economic growth and maintain a progressive socio-economic system. Nigeria, as a nation, is characterized by a high level of ethnic diversity with over 300 ethnic groups and a large population, as is the case for

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a few other nations in the SSA region. Nigeria has sustained a continuous democratic governance since the year 1999, which is a presupposition and indication of political stability, economic growth, however, has not been as rapid as anticipated. Political and economic pundits have highlighted that the issues of transparency and accountability in government, as well as citizen inclusion and participation in governance must be prioritized moving forward. These indicators, when positioned rightly will help drive investment, technological and market expansion, societal development, and ultimately, economic growth. According to the world bank’s political stability index, a metric for measuring the correlation of political actions in a country and the economic growth, some ranking indices to inform FDI decisions have been identified. Several other indexes from various information evaluation bodies have been analyzed and the PS-Index is an average of these put together. Germany and the UK have 0.58 and 0.52, respectively (−2.5 being the weakest index and 2.5 being the strongest index). For comparison, south Africa has −0.22 and Nigeria has −1.93 PS-indices, respectively. The government is well-equipped to overcome both social and political turbulence. It is supposed to guarantee citizens its eagerness to create the necessary conditions to improve the quality of life especially social living. Scarce resources, unemployment, and unbalanced wealth tend to vitiate a viable social trust but lead to social tensions within political societies and engender loss of credibility to the authority of governments and private organizations. This kind of system failure mostly lends credence to forms of clamor for socio-political changes often experienced around the globe. 7.7.4.3 Infrastructure Considerations For Nigeria to get its Infrastructure deficit under control, a total estimated investment of 3 trillion US Dollars must be set into infrastructure alone, according to the World Bank. Several long-term plans have been put in place in this regard through increased infrastructure spending in the “National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan,” over the next three decades. The target of this is to raise the nation’s infrastructure stock from the current 30% to about 70% of GDP, a degree which the World Bank recommended (Adesina 2020). Infrastructure development is a key driver for technology penetration and industrial growth; this applies to RCH systems technology implementation in Nigeria and ultimately in the SSA region. There is a current documented housing deficit of 17 million houses, only residential, not considering commercial and institutional buildings. The implementation of RCH systems and a corresponding market development will play a key part in the building energy supply procedures, environmental and energy management elements, within the framework of the anticipated rapid infrastructural development in Nigeria (Adesina 2020). Both the government and the private sector contribute to infrastructural projects. Key projects such as bridges, roads, ports, railroads, and more are financed by the government, multilateral development banks, bilateral creditors, and Public private partnerships. Inadequate network of roads and rails linking

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commercial hubs and cities across the country has continued to pose a challenge to overall business operations in the region. Besides insufficient infrastructure, there are other structural and economic issues which could setback the RCH systems technology implementation in Nigeria. Such issues include non-tariff and tariff trade barriers, investment obstacles, low confidence in the currency valuation, and limited capacity for foreign exchange. South Africa on the other hand, in comparison to other countries in the SSA region, has one of the most extensive and advanced transport infrastructures. Many states in the region depend on south Africa’s infrastructure, thus the role it plays in the regional economic sustenance is crucial. Large-scale and rolling upgrades of the infrastructure are being executed, particularly in the rail and road transport networks. The ports authority as well as the national airline carrier are government-owned incorporated public firms, which are poised for improved efficiency in driving business operations across the region. The establishment of an RCH systems industry and the consequent market expansion in South Africa and the neighboring regional states is already long overdue.

7.8 Proposed Industry-Technology Roadmap 7.8.1 The TRM Diagram The Technology Roadmap in Fig. 7.3 shows the interconnectivity between the vital aspects of the RCH technology implementation requirements for SSA. It enumerates how the resources connect with the technology and the product features. It also shows the two major prospective markets in the SSA region, by virtue of the size of the economy, exposure to globalization, and ease of technology applications and business operations. Timelines of the targeted major events through a 10-year period, along with their corresponding milestones are depicted.

7.8.2 Limitations of TRM for RCH Systems in SSA After developing the Technology Roadmap for RCH systems in SSA, it is important to highlight the potential limitations of the assumptions made with respect to the features, the action points, and the proposed timeline for technology implementation. In the long term, market and business drivers for a new technology in uncharted territories such as these are hard to predict, due to a myriad of external and organizational influences. Industry analyses tools for situational prediction and feasible market scenario simulations will have to be applied to support and expand the preliminary Technology Roadmap. Sufficient market survey and research information for a scenario-based TRM is missing in this project. The industry navigation and

Fig. 7.3  Proposed Industry-Technology Roadmap for RCH systems in SSA

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analysis tools applications as well as the actual TRM for RCH are mainly theoretical. Technological and market aspects for the SSA region specifically, as well as risk factors are inadequately covered, since survey data and industry statistics for emerging markets tailored to this region are unavailable. Other essential aspects include governmental responsibilities, stemming from the tremendously feasible impact of prevailing inland energy policies and building sector legislations on the RCH market. The customers are also a strong force with enormous influence on the technology acceptance and the eventual profitability of the prospective RCH systems market in SSA. Absence of survey data from industry stakeholders like building and energy design, and architectural consulting companies also poses a crucial constraint. The general perception of the technology is mostly positive in large and developed economies. The same also goes in regions with existing governmental policies on energy management, climate protection, and renewable energy subsidization. The technology being introduced into new regions will encounter entirely new challenges and will require long-term planning for concerned organizations. The amount of effort needed to get the buy-in of policy makers and pin down the market determinants will be significant.

7.9 Conclusion and Recommendation for Further Studies The technology and market analyses tools including the TRM have been developed to assist with business strategy and technology planning for RCH systems in SSA.  The most extensive parts of the implementation plan are proposed to be a combination of the industry, technological and organizational R&D. These are in combination with resource-favorable legislation for renewable energy systems like geothermal energy. All the resource aspects are interconnected with the main technological characteristics of the RCH systems. Many of the technological features such as low-energy consumption, renewable energies integration, building automation, connectivity, and IoT will play essential roles in the eventual product designs as well is in product testing and certification for new buildings. A consequential influence of these features is also expected with modernization and upgrades for existing buildings. Both of the proposed technology testing and implementation locations in SSA, that is, Nigeria and South Africa, by virtue of the HVAC market size and the overall economic growth, have the capacity to drive RCH systems product and technological expansion. The inference can be drawn from the abundance of human capital, financial resources, and incentives accessible. For concerned organizations with prospective expansion plans in the SSA region, however, it is imperative for such to carry out their own investigations, market analysis, and consultation with HVAC industry stakeholders who are familiar with the Sub-Saharan Africa business environment. Particular attention should also be placed on the business drivers as enumerated on the Industry-Technology Roadmap. Besides the infrastructural and socio-political considerations, as to whether these

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locations in the region will be conducive for RCH technologies to thrive, a lot of awareness creation and advertisement will have to be carried out in order to gain the attention of HVAC industry consumers. Massive investments should be anticipated as a default demand feature in persuading interest groups such as politicians, labor, manufacturing unions, and so on. Such investments in the long run will lead to doors of economic incentives such as tax cuts and reduced components import levies for firms which desire to follow this path. In general, the RCH systems technology has the potential to become profitable in SSA. Consequently, more revenue is expected for the global players that operate in Western Europe and North America and which are courageous enough to upscale into new market territories like in SSA. It is recommended that this particular Industry-Technology Roadmap be reviewed from time to time, specifically at intervals of 2 years. The RCH systems industry is dynamic, the technology is steadily evolving, and as the HVAC markets across the world continue to grow, RCH technologies will continue to expand.

 ppendix 7.1: Business-Presence Map Outlines for Global A RCH Technology and Industry Players 7.1.1. Emerson Global Presence (Map 7.1)

Map 7.1  Emerson Global presence. Map source: https://www.emerson.com/en-­us/contact-­us/ commercial

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7.1.2. Uponor Global Operations (Map 7.2)

Map 7.2  Uponor worldwide operations. Map source: https://www.uponorgroup.com/en-­en/about­us/our-­business

7.1.3. Rehau Global Presence (Map 7.3)

Map 7.3  Rehau with existing sales presence in a part of SSA. Map source: https://www.rehau. com/us-­en/locations

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7.1.4. Viessmann Worldwide Presence (Map 7.4)

Map 7.4 Viessmann Worldwide presence. Map source: https://www.viessmann.family/en/ who-­we-­are

7 .1.5. A Generic Technology Roadmap Diagram, Linking Market, Technology, and Product, Resources, and R&D (Phaal et al. 2003)

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7 .1.6. Methodical Outline for RCH Systems Implementation in an Unexplored SSA Regional Market

i. Identifying the RHC systems industry framework, and regional profiles - WE & SSA

ii. Outlining of application considerations and industry analyses SWOT analysis & Augmented PF5

iii. Enumeration of the technology (T), product(P) features, QFD, Business drivers, and market aspects Proposed TRM build-up for RHC in SSA

Appendix 7.2: Market Navigation Principle: SWOT Analysis 7 .2.1 SWOT Analysis Quadrant for RCH Implementation in the SSA Building Industry Strengths • Contributing to the gradual phasing out of fossil/carbon fuels in technical equipment for energy supply in buildings. • Environmental Protection through renewable energy introduction, i.e., geothermal energy. • Significant cooling capacity requirements for buildings overall due to hot climate. • Large Economies and population in need of modern housing. • Large workforce, as an advantage for inland RCH components design and manufacturing.

Weaknesses • Cost effectiveness in the initial installation phase is not impressive. • Adaptation with other technologies like regular air conditioning could be challenging. • Limited or non-existing design and manufacturing capacity. • Insufficient awareness of the possibilities of RCH systems for building applications. • Small scale of economy for renewable energy.

172 Opportunities • Possibility of being a huge disrupting factor for the conventional AC systems. • Possibility for geothermal energy industry development. • Large housing deficit and significant marketplace. • Demand for new technologies in building. Equipment and servicing. • Contributing growth-factor to labor and employment sector.

V. Oyedele et al. Threats • Competing systems like AC (Split systems, AHUs) have dominated the market for decades, and would be hard to disrupt. • Insignificant heating capacity requirements in buildings due to the warm temperate climate. • Possible adverse effect on existing energy policies. • General attitude and reluctance of external investors or global manufacturers to invest in industries in SSA other than Oil and gas, and minerals.

7.3.1. Function of Radiant Cooling Ceilings

Diagram source: https://www.archdaily.com/catalog/us/products/22167/aluminum-­panels-­forsmart-­ceilings-­metawell

7.3.2. Example Cooling Ceilings Section (Source: Zent-Frenger)

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7.3.3. TABS: Function Principle for a Sample Indoor Space Floor Heating/Cooling Raised floor with acoustic insulation

25 40

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Ventilation system ducts Lighting False ceiling in steel bars

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Raised floor with acoustic insulation Prefabricated TABS slab

Example diagram source: (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273131507)

7 .3.4. Three-Dimensional Concrete Slab Section with TABS (Source: www.uponor.de)

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7 .3.5. In-Situ Pipe Laying for Concrete Core Activation (Source: www.uponor.de)

7 .3.6. Simple Air Conditioning Function Flow Diagram (Source: https://www.askewsltd.com)

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 ppendix 7.4: Quality Function Deployment (QFD) A Relationship Matrices 7.4.1. The QFD Matrix Structure (Bielsky and Daim 2021)

7.4.2. Product Features and Market Drivers QFD

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7.4.3. Technology and Product Features QFD

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Chapter 8

Roadmapping of Biogas Production Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa: Waste to Energy Egwu Chidinma Onyekaozuoro, Tugrul U. Daim, and Cornelius Herstatt

8.1 Introduction 8.1.1 Background of Study Energy resource is equally essential as other production factors, such as capital and labour resources (Murshed 2021). Therefore, a major concern around the world is ensuring sufficient energy resources are available. The availability of energy resources greatly impacts achieving energy security and a steady economic growth rate (Le and Nguyen 2019). Several sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have a growing population and abundant natural resources, which present opportunities for economic development and improved living standards for their people. However, quite a number of SSA countries continue to face significant challenges in energy supply (UNDP 2013). Inaccessible energy resources pose issues to environmental health, human health, and economic growth in Africa. The percentage of people in 21 countries in SSA who have reliable access to electricity is less than 10%. The value of renewable energy alternatives made from easily accessible materials in the area is immense. Energy availability can be increased through viable systems that integrate solid waste with energy generation. One way to generate energy is via processes such as anaerobic digestion (AD) of biomass, which includes materials including municipal, industrial, and agricultural waste. The high rate of waste creation in SSA makes

E. C. Onyekaozuoro · C. Herstatt Technical University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany T. U. Daim (*) Mark O. Hatfield Cybersecurity & Cyber Defense Policy Center, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 T. U. Daim et al. (eds.), Next Generation Roadmapping, Science, Technology and Innovation Studies, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38575-9_8

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biogas technology a suitable technology that Africa should easily adopt (Parawira 2004). Renewable energy resources are abundant, diverse, and exploited throughout SSA, and yet, these resources have not been utilised to raise the living standards of the region’s populace. Biogas production has the capability to alleviate energy poverty, which is a persistent impediment to African economic progress. In contrast to the production of bioethanol and biodiesel, the biogas generation from municipal solid waste (MSW), agricultural waste, and industrial waste does not have to be in direct competition with food crop production for land, water and fertilisers. Food is currently in limited supply in developing nations, and this situation is predicted to worsen in the future (Mshandete and Parawira 2009).

8.1.2 Problem Statement Sub-Saharan African nations face the challenge of developing energy systems to guarantee sufficient energy supply, environmental protection and sustainable development while averting any conflicts with other countries (Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). A negative energy supply hinders the progress of economic development by impeding national output production. Moreover, various previous studies have highlighted that energy plays an important role in driving industrialisation (Tvaronavičiene et al. 2015; Murshed et al. 2022). Additionally, several wastes are generated in SSA, which can be converted into valuable resources. These resources, such as biomass, can be used to produce biogas, which is a sustainable renewable energy source. Biomass energy supply is not properly harnessed and utilised, resulting in numerous issues, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, health and social issues, land degradation, and deforestation (Jean Claude 2021). Therefore, it has become clear that there is an urgent need for long-term and strategic planning of energy resources, demand, and supply.

8.1.3 Objective of Study The first objective is to propose a method for biogas technology roadmapping (TRM) that is tailored to meet the needs of developing countries, with the aim of being simple, affordable, and sustainable. The second objective is to apply the proposed method to develop a strategy for implementing sustainable biogas technology in SSA from 2024. The roadmap will be designed to be flexible and adaptable, allowing it to be applicable in different countries in SSA. The study will also provide recommendations for the implementation of the proposed roadmapping. The plan to achieve the objectives includes investigating the market, barriers, drivers, technological accessibility and feasibility of implementing biogas technology in

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SSA. This study aims to answer some important questions regarding the developing TRM for biogas production technology, which include: • What are the benefits of biogas technology in SSA? • What is the current state of biogas production technology and its deployment in SSA? • How can the specific context and conditions of sub-Saharan Africa be considered when developing a technology roadmap for biogas production? • How would SWOT and P5F analysis serve as a guideline for the potential of biogas systems in SSA? • What are the barriers and drivers that need to be considered when identifying and prioritising actions for a technology roadmap for biogas production? • What technological and resource strategies could the industry players implement in the next decade, and in what areas would they need to adapt to ensure future competitive advantage?

8.1.4 Outline of Study This paper is structured into ten chapters. The first chapter provides a background of energy supply in SSA and highlights the need for TRM in biogas production. Chapter 2 describes the processes involved in biogas production and outlines biogas development in some countries in SSA. Chapter 3 discusses the concept of TRM, different techniques applied in the energy sector and highlights the proposed method. Chapter 4 initiates the application of the proposed method by performing a market and risk analysis using SWOT and P5F analysis. Chapter 5 outlines the key barriers and business drivers that facilitate the implementation of the TRM. Chapters 6, 7, and 8 highlight the product features, technology features and resources, respectively. Chapter 9 presents the proposed technology roadmap, linking four components (business drivers, product features, technology features, and resources) and highlighting key milestones. Chapter 10 draws some conclusions and future steps.

8.2 Literature Review 8.2.1 Principles of Biogas Technology A gas obtained from the anaerobic digestion of organic waste is known as biogas. Different bacteria use oxygen deprivation to break down the feedstock into a burnable gas predominantly made of methane and carbon dioxide (CO2). Methane makes up between 50% and 70% of the composition of biogas, whereas CO2 accounts for between 30% and 45%. The feedstock’s composition is the primary factor determining the process’s speed (AEBIOM 2009; Rupf et al. 2017). In order to transform

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organic waste into energy in the form of biogas and digestate that may be used as fertiliser, biogas production technology utilises the AD process, which takes place in one or several digesters. Biogas technology has been recognised in SSA as an important technology for boosting food security and improving energy, as well as treating organic wastes (Rupf et al. 2017). Historically, the first and most basic kind of biogas plant was a gas collector placed atop a mound of animal waste, such as that from cattle or pigs. Ancient Persians were familiar with this principle. Today, a wide variety of feedstocks are used to produce biogas. Biomass from agriculture, such as byproducts (manure) or dedicated crops for biogas, can be distinguished from different waste streams, as shown in Table  8.1 (AEBIOM 2009; Sharma and Garg 2019). Biogas, which is regarded as a reliable energy source, can be produced continuously and consistently from organic waste. In contrast to some other renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, the use of biogas is not affected by weather fluctuations. It can be transported easily via pipelines, compressed in tanks and transported by truck, or compressed and stored in cylinders for small-scale use. This allows for greater flexibility in its use and distribution, making it a viable option for remote or off-grid areas. Biogas production through AD of large amounts of industrial waste (water), MSW, and agricultural residues is beneficial to African society because it provides clean fuel from renewable feedstocks and aids in the eradication of energy poverty. Biogas is a sustainable, high-quality energy source that has several potential applications in the energy industry, including but not limited to space heating, power generation, and transportation fuel. The utilization of biogas reduces the dependency on fossil-fuel–derived energy because of its negative environmental impact. Biogas production systems, in contrast to other types of renewable energy, are easy to implement at a small scale or large scale in rural and urban areas (Mshandete and Parawira 2009).

8.2.2 Biogas Development in SSA Most biodigesters in SSA are small-scale, residential systems that generate biogas utilised for lighting (gas) and cooking. Large-scale, institutional systems are often used for waste management and cooking. Household biodigesters rely mostly on Table 8.1  Biogas feedstocks and waste streams

Agriculture waste streams Crop residues Livestock manure Landscape management Energy crops Sewage sludge

Feedstock type Biomass Organic waste Municipal solid waste (MSW) Biomass Organic waste

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cattle dung as the feedstock, whereas sewage and/or cattle dung is used in institutional biodigesters. However, there is great potential to utilise crop residues, wastes from food manufacturing companies and organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) for energy generation in large-scale digester systems. Commercial biodigesters have relatively low adoption in SSA, with only a handful of installations across Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, Kenya, and South Africa. Biogas technology may also be easily scaled up and built using resources that are locally sourced (Rupf et al. 2017). Since the 1950s, low numbers of biodigesters have been built in SSA, with varying degrees of success (Amigun and von Blottnitz 2010; Mshandete and Parawira 2009). The “Biogas for Better Life Initiative” was initiated in 2007 to establish a viable and commercialized biogas market across Africa (van Nes and Nhete 2007). Small-­ scale biogas production has been disseminated more widely in selected SSA countries through domestic biogas programmes, despite instances in developed countries of its application at all scales (Rupf et al. 2017). The promotion efforts of foreign aid agencies and different international organisations through meetings, visits, and publications have heightened interest in biogas production in Africa. Several digesters have been installed in various SSA nations to date, and they use a variety of waste materials, including municipal wastes, industrial waste, human excreta, and wastes from animals. Although there are biogas facilities on a smaller scale located all over SSA, only a selected number is functional. The majority of SSA nations, such as Burundi, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania, produce biogas by anaerobically digesting organic waste using Indian floating-cover biogas digesters and Chinese fixed-­ dome digesters. Both types of digesters are generally unreliable and perform poorly (Omer and Fadalla 2003). Most biogas facilities have only been in operation for a limited length of time because of low technical quality, despite being built by nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) for use in hospitals, schools, and farms. Technology for biogas production on an industrial scale is only beginning to be developed in Africa, but the prospects are promising. Basic research is still needed in many developing countries, particularly with regard to the likely biogas quantity from readily accessible organic wastes and the type and size of digesters that may be economically viable for prospective biogas users. Research and development (R&D) are needed to determine how best to modify biogas technology from developed countries and adapt modified technology for use in SSA. Biogas energy may assist developing countries in resolving their energy crisis if extensive research is carefully planned and carried out. The research findings may be used to inform national policies aimed at fostering economic growth and development (Mshandete and Parawira 2009).

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8.2.3 Technology Roadmapping for Strategic Planning in Energy Industry Strategic and long-term planning has several benefits that enable countries and organisations to make well-informed decisions and properly plan for the future. It lays the groundwork for conducting in-depth analysis, forming broad-based agreements, and putting those decisions into practice in a methodical manner. Although strategic and long-term planning has many benefits, it is also time-consuming. It needs a lot more effort than short-term planning and entails several uncertainties, especially in a continuously dynamic environment (Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). TRM is a strategic planning method that provides information to organisations or governments to help them in making better choices about where to best invest in emerging technologies (Garcia and Bray 1997; Phaal et al. 2001; Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). Technology roadmaps are graphical representations of the roadmapping process, demonstrating coordinated planning among stakeholders. The most prevalent technology roadmap is a time-based, multilayer chart, which involves a collaborative, integrated planning approach that connects resources and activities to business goals (Phaal et al. 2004; MOD 2006). Roadmapping may be used to organize, deploy, monitor, and adjust strategies for developing new technologies (IEA 2010). TRM achieves this in four key steps, which are as follows: (1) bringing together diverse stakeholders to reach an agreement on common goals, (2) determining the most important factors that should be considered when choosing a technology, (3) determining the technologies that address essential needs, and (4) creating a plan and strategy on how to implement the chosen technological solutions. TRM is especially useful when investment decisions are unclear and there is doubt about which technology option to pursue (Garcia and Bray 1997; Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). There are several studies that integrate TRM across diverse industries to help organisations identify and prioritize technology-related opportunities, gaps, and challenges (Daim and Faili 2019). In the blockchain field, Zhang et al. (2021) conducted a patent-based TRM study to better understand the state of R&D in the field and predict its future direction. In the biomedical field, a technology roadmap was designed by Garza Ramos et al. (2022) to develop a 3D cell culture solution for use in drug development and in vitro disease models. This study helped a biomedical startup company to assess its many weaknesses and determine how best to allocate its limited resources as the company and its products evolved. In the transportation field, Hansen et al. (2016) analysed the potential impact of new goods and technologies on the rail automation industry under various future situations using a scenario-­ based TRM. Other applications of TRM include the energy sector (Daim et al. 2018; Amer et al. 2015), agriculture (Gallegos Rivero and Daim 2017), and digital technology (Nazarenko et al. 2022). The methodology has been used mainly in large emerging economies and industrialised countries, where they have already been combined with R&D activities. On the other hand, TRM has been infrequently used in developing nations because

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there may be limited resources, skilled labour, and available data. Companies, universities, NGOs, and international organisations have utilised TRM extensively at the sector levels to solve a vast array of issues (Amer & Daim 2010). According to Amer and Daim, sustainable energy is the most discussed topic in energy roadmaps. Biomass is a renewable energy source of great relevance to industrialised nations for generating heat and electricity, as well as developing and emerging nations for heating and cooking. Global interest in biomass is increasing because of its potential for sustainable use, ability to rely less on fossil fuels and ability to lower GHG emissions (IEA 2012). According to the study by Gonzalez-Salazar et al. (2016), several developing and developed nations have designed roadmaps for the commercialisation of biomass in order to facilitate the widespread use of biofuel technologies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) published biofuels for transportation in 2011 and another on bioenergy for heat and power in 2012, which are both global technology roadmaps. Other examples include the European Union’s roadmap on biomass technology for heating and cooling (RHC 2014); a biogas roadmap for Europe (AEBIOM 2009); a harmonised biofuel roadmap for the European Union (E4tech 2013); and the United States published a roadmap on bioenergy and biobased in 2007 (BRD 2007). In addition, Zhang et  al. (2010) researched a framework for rural biomass energy in China. The communication and consensus reached among stakeholders during the technological roadmap development process are also as valuable as the roadmap itself. There are three crucial questions that every useful roadmap should address: Where are you at this point? Which direction do you wish to go? How do you plan on getting there? (Phaal and Muller 2009; Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). As reported by Amer and Daim (2010), technology roadmaps may be developed using a number of different frameworks and methods described in the literature. A review of 80 distinct roadmapping techniques showed that, although there is no one perfect method, there are some excellent approaches that could be adopted. Strategies such as conducting stakeholder identification, organizing seminars and advocating for a multiperspective approach are among the most effective approaches (Kostoff et al. 2004; Amer and Daim 2010).

8.3 Methodology 8.3.1 Techniques in Technology Roadmapping Most of the roadmaps make extensive use of techniques such as scenario-based planning and industry experts, whereas around half of the roadmaps use SWOT analysis. Techniques such as citation work analysis, patent analysis, PEST analysis, risk assessments, the Delphi method, and quality function deployment (QFD) are rarely used in roadmaps (Amer and Daim 2010). Furthermore, Amer and Daim

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(2010) suggest that renewable energy roadmaps should be standardized by recommending a common framework as a solution. An important step was taken in this direction by the IEA when they published their guide on how to develop a successful roadmap on bioenergy technology (IEA 2010). The IEA guide is intended to provide governments and organisations with a roadmap for creating and executing a comprehensive energy strategy. There is a five-point plan proposed in the guide. 1. Objectives: Steps to be taken in order to achieve a certain result. 2. Milestones: Intermediate goals on the path to achieving the objectives. 3. Barriers: Outline of potential roadblocks and obstacles to achieving objectives and milestones. 4. Actionable items: Steps required to overcome the barriers in order to accomplish the objectives. 5. Priorities and timelines: A prioritized list of the next steps needed to reach the objectives by their due dates. The guide suggests two kinds of activities to be carried out in the process of roadmapping. These activities are as follows: (a) expert judgment and consensus, and (b) data and analysis. It is indicated that activities based on expert judgment and consensus be used to establish common ground on the goal, test hypotheses, identify barriers and map out possible solutions. It is proposed to use data and analysis to back up and facilitate expert judgment with factual data (Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). Multiple approaches, such as workshops, open discussions, one-on-one interviews, and scientometric methods, may be used to conduct expert judgement (Nazarenko et al. 2022). The two activities are performed in the following stages, namely: planning, visioning, roadmap development, roadmap revision, and implementation of the roadmap. The objectives, constraints, and execution strategy are all specified during the planning stage. Workshops and forums are organised to determine long-term goals in the visioning stage. Additional priority-setting forums are conducted throughout the development stage, along with the actual drafting, reviewing, and refining of the document. The process concludes with an implementation stage in which the roadmap is executed and monitored. In addition, more workshops are held to re-evaluate the priorities over time (Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). IEA suggests 40 to 100 different stakeholders should be involved in the roadmap development process and estimates that it will take 6 to 14 months to develop (Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). There is a vast array of information that these stakeholders need to contribute their expert opinion on markets, technology, drivers, gaps, barriers, and organisational factors, among others. However, judgements of the TRM components may still be influenced by conscious or unconscious bias. Stakeholder’s bias may be influenced by several factors, such as their company’s position in the biogas industry, the area of expertise, the perceptions about the nature of the relevant technology in the biogas market, long-term mindset and the capacity to evaluate novel prospects (Nazarenko et al. 2022). According to Nazarenko et al. (2022), the use of digital technologies such as text mining in TRM creation is an effective tool to reduce the influence of experts’ personal preferences in the assessments and provide more reliable results.

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Furthermore, the IEA guide’s advantages include: (1) it has a comprehensive and methodical framework, making it applicable to any industry or nation; (2) it uses empirical evidence and analytical reasoning to back up expert opinion; and (3) it outlines detailed activities and responsibilities of stakeholders and efficient methods to implement roadmaps. However, the guide has some disadvantages, which include its complex structure and process being too long for developing countries, analytical modelling being optional, and it being difficult to build expert consensus. Although the IEA guide is comprehensive and well-developed, its format is most suitable for nations in the OECD. It might be challenging for developing countries to fully apply the framework because of the extensive planning and coordination and the involvement of many stakeholders (Gonzalez-Salazar et al. 2016). 8.3.1.1 SWOT Analysis SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis provides background inputs for strategic planning activities. SWOT analysis is presented as a 2 × 2 matrix, which gives an overview of the crucial internal and external factors influencing strategies or the organisation’s future. Typically, it is prepared by a team of experts utilising a variety of data sources and an interview schedule. Strengths and weaknesses are prioritised by how crucial they are to the achievement of set goals, whereas opportunities and threats are prioritised by relevance and probability. Key factors are selected using graphical plots and other methods. Failures in SWOT analysis often result from inadequate factor definition or prioritisation. This may be due to a lack of expert knowledge, repetitive standard analysis by consultants unfamiliar with local particularities, or political pressures to downplay regional/national weaknesses (Miles 2009). 8.3.1.2 Portal’s Five-Forces (P5F) According to Porter (2008), the five forces of competitive advantage are an effort to explain how organisations might get an edge in their respective industries. The bargaining power of sellers, the bargaining power of buyers, the threat of potential entrants, the threat of substitutes, and the threat of existing competition in the biogas industry are the components that make up the five forces that have the potential to influence the positioning of biogas systems in SSA (Goyal 2020). If the five forces are moderate, there is potential for higher returns, but if the forces are intense, almost no company in the biogas industry generates attractive investment returns (de Bruin 2016).

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8.3.1.3 Quality Function Deployment (QFD) QFD is a planning method that highlights the needs and priorities of the target market across each step of the product development process. Numerous businesses across a wide range of sectors have successfully applied QFD. With this technique, qualitative user demands can be translated into quantitative parameters, allowing for quality-forming functions and components to be put into action to guide service or product development. To better serve consumers, organisations may utilize QFD to determine which aspects of their products and services are the most essential to them. In addition, QFD helps firms to discover possible trade-offs between distinct product characteristics, enabling the creation of a balanced, cost-effective product design that satisfies consumer demands. By using QFD, organisations can develop unique products that not only appeal to consumers but also provide a competitive advantage in the industry by differentiating them from their competitors (Kiran 2017).

8.3.2 Proposed Method for Biogas Production in SSA The technology planning maturity model provides a framework for developing a comprehensive and effective TRM for biogas technology in the context of using biomass as a source of energy generation. This framework comprises three broad phases. The first phase of the TRM process involves establishing long-term goals and strategies that align with the organisation’s overall vision and objectives. This phase requires a thorough understanding of the market, technology, and environmental factors that influence biogas technology adoption in the region. The second phase involves identifying areas of insufficient knowledge and obstacles that may hinder the achievement of the proposed objectives. This requires an in-depth analysis of the technological, economic, social, and environmental aspects of the biogas technology value chain, as well as stakeholder engagement, to identify potential barriers to adoption. The third phase involves determining the necessary actions that stakeholders should take to overcome the identified barriers and achieve the desired objectives. This phase involves the development of action plans and the allocation of resources to address the identified barriers and ensure the successful implementation of the technology roadmap (Daim and Yu 2021). The process of developing a technology roadmap for biogas systems in sub-Saharan Africa can be complex. A five-step systematic approach adapted from Hansen et al. (2016) was used to develop a biogas production technology roadmap. This method uses a graphical representation to connect TRM techniques with their components in order to ascertain the significance of each business driver, product, and technology in view of the anticipated and changing future environments. In aligning all components of the roadmap, the business drivers are positioned on the uppermost layer. The product features and technology features are positioned in the middle layer, enabling possibilities to suit the business driver requirements, whereas the resources are placed at the bottom layer of the roadmap. All layers of the roadmap have arrows indicating

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the connections between business drivers, products, technology, and resources. A literature review or a workshop with subject-matter experts can be used to determine which components should be included and prioritized in the roadmap. These steps are outlined in the flowchart in Fig. 8.1 (Hansen et al. 2016).

8.4 Market and Risk Analysis The focus will be on Ghana and South Africa in this analysis. Ghana’s primary sources of power supply are hydroelectricity, solar, natural gas, and crude oil. Some countries in SSA, such as Benin, Togo, and Burkina Faso, benefit from Ghana’s electricity exports. The continuous extensions of the grid would make it possible to enhance exports to the other subregional neighbours. Existing power plants in Ghana have a total installed capacity of 4132 MW, of which 38% is hydroelectric, 61% is thermal, and less than 1% is solar (Rahmatzafran et al. 2020; Agyenim et al. 2020). The power sector in Ghana is heavily influenced by the private sector. This electricity market structure is backed up by the scheme for renewables such as solar photovoltaic and wind, which encourages private companies to contribute to the public power grid. Although market mechanisms for renewables such as solar photovoltaic and wind are in place and operating effectively, the biogas industry continues to struggle. Biogas technology is mostly employed for sanitation and smaller-scale power production because of feedstock and maintenance issues, which prevents it from being widely implemented for large-scale power production (Rahmatzafran et al. 2020). Meanwhile, South Africa’s main energy source comprises 69% coal, 14% crude oil, 11% renewables, 3% gas, and 3% nuclear (Uhunamure and Shale 2021). South Africa’s renewable energy industry is still young but growing. South Africa plans to increase its existing 58,095  MW of domestic generation by another 400GW by 2030 in order to fulfill its energy needs (Department of Energy 2015). South African biogas industry is relatively small, and among the approximately 500 digesters in service, about 200 are located at wastewater treatment facilities. Only a few large-­ scale commercial or industrial biogas digesters make up the remaining 300

1

• Identify market for biogas technology in SSA

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• Perform industry analysis using SWOT analysis and P5F model

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• Outline potential barriers and business drivers

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• Evaluate product features, technology feature and resources

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• Align components and build roadmap for biogas systems in SSA

Fig. 8.1  Flowchart of technology roadmap implementation

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digesters, whereas the others are mainly small-scale digesters. Project viability and bankability drive South Africa’s biogas market (Rahmatzafran et al. 2020).

8.4.1 SWOT Analysis A SWOT analysis is conducted to identify the key areas of focus for renewable energy industry stakeholders. This can guide decision-making on market entry and enable strategy development to generate forecasts for the implementation of biogas technologies. The assessment is based on both internal and external criteria, which are required for comparative analysis to facilitate strategic planning. Internal factors are analysed to identify and evaluate strengths and weaknesses. Similarly, the external factors related to the opportunities and threats are examined. 8.4.1.1 SWOT Analysis for Biogas Technology in Ghana The SWOT analysis quadrant is outlined in Table 8.2. Strengths—Ghana’s abundant land supply provides a source of feedstock for biogas production. This eliminates the need to import raw materials, reducing production costs. The availability of favourable policies, such as the Renewable Energy Act, provides a policy framework that encourages biogas production, making it easier to implement and scale (Atsu et al. 2016; Agyekum 2020). The market is also open to private investment, allowing the private sector to participate in the industry’s development. Biogas technology has the potential to reduce the number of sanitation-related illnesses and diseases caused by ineffective waste management. The technology reduces the amount of waste disposed of in landfills by converting organic waste into biogas, thereby reducing the health risks associated with waste pollution (GBEP 2020). In addition, biogas production creates jobs and economic growth by providing a source of clean energy and income in rural areas. Weaknesses—The initial investment cost of biogas technology as well as the cost to maintain it over time is a substantial financial commitment. Another major challenge is that Ghana struggles to commercialise and implement scientific research. It could be problematic because the biogas industry is constantly evolving to improve the efficiency of various technology. Subsequently, most people are unaware of the vast renewable energy potential. As a result of this, people do not consider it valuable to make investments in this industry (Moorthy et al. 2019; Agyekum 2020). In addition, the electricity grid system in Ghana faces numerous challenges. According to research, Ghana lost approximately 21.7% of its grossly generated electricity through transmission and distribution over the past decade. These losses are due to an inefficient grid system, which is primarily caused by the system’s obsolescence (Kumi 2017). Opportunities—Ghana has access to numerous funds and financial aids for the creation of a market for carbon-free energy sources. Funds can be accessed through

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Table 8.2  SWOT analysis quadrant for biogas technology in Ghana S Strengths 1 Rich land resources and locally sourced feedstock materials 2 Available policy that favours biogas production—Renewable Energy Act (Act 832) 3 Market is open to private investment

W Weaknesses 1 High cost of implementing and maintaining biogas projects 2 Requires a consistent supply of feedstock, which can be a challenge in some areas

4 Fewer cases of illnesses connected to improper waste management and inadequate hygiene O Opportunities 1 Can be implemented in various industries, such as food processing, agriculture, and waste management. 2 Availability of funding sources— carbon markets, bilateral and multilateral funds 3 Government incentives can support the growth of the biogas industry 4 Development of new business for trading digestate to farmers as a fertiliser substitute

4

3

Lack of commercialization of scientific research and public awareness may not be well understood or accepted by some communities Poor grid systems and less attention on off-grid renewable energy systems

T Threats 1 The growth of the biogas industry might be constrained by competition from alternative renewable sources such as solar and wind 2 Political unsteadiness—discontinuity in energy policies that can hinder the growth of the biogas industry 3 Biogas production could be affected by changes in feedstock availability or cost 4 Public acceptance—perception and understanding of biogas technology could be negative

several programs such as Climate Investment Funds (CIF) and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), which can help to support the development of biogas projects (Gujba et al. 2012). In addition, government incentives such as tax credits and subsidies can help to promote the growth of the biogas industry. Furthermore, biogas technology can be applied in a variety of industries, including food processing, agriculture, and waste management. For instance, in the food processing industry, biogas can be produced from food waste and used to generate energy, which can be used internally in the plant or transferred to the grid. In agriculture, biogas can be produced from crop residues, animal manure, and other organic waste, which can be used as power or heat for farm operations. Similarly, in waste management, biogas can be produced from landfill gas, sewage sludge, and MSW, which can be used to generate either heat or electricity. The versatility of biogas production technology makes it a valuable tool for achieving sustainable development across various sectors. The development of a new business model to trade digestate to farmers as a fertiliser substitute presents a unique opportunity to generate additional revenue streams and reduce the demand for traditional synthetic fertilisers, which can be expensive and have negative environmental impacts (GBEP 2020). Threats—Despite the potential benefits and opportunities of biogas technology, its implementation faces several threats. Competition from alternative renewable sources, such as hydro, solar, and wind power, may hinder the growth of the biogas

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industry. Moreover, political instability and discontinuity in energy policies can create uncertainties that impede the development of biogas projects. Biogas production could also be affected by changes in feedstock availability or cost. The availability and cost of feedstock play an important role in biogas production. If there is no constant supply of feedstock, then the biogas supply will be limited, and the plant may not operate at optimal capacity. Additionally, if the cost of raw materials increases, it may become a challenge for suppliers to provide a continuous and adequate supply of feedstock at a competitive price. This can make biogas production economically unviable and lead to a decline in the growth of the biogas industry. Finally, public acceptance of biogas technology could be a challenge as the perception and understanding of biogas technology may be negative, which can affect its adoption and development. Therefore, it is important to address these issues to ensure the successful implementation of biogas technology. 8.4.1.2 SWOT Analysis for Biogas Technology in South Africa The SWOT analysis quadrant is outlined in Table 8.3. Strengths—with an average annual rainfall of 465 mm and an abundance of plants and wildlife, most of South Africa’s vast natural vegetation is favourable for biogas energy production (Uhunamure and Shale 2021). Moreover, the policy climate in South Africa is conducive to the growth of renewable energy. The South African government’s Department of Energy facilitates private and commercial participation in the energy industry, creating an open investment market. This investment partnership is a government strategy to accomplish its goal of making accessible, clean, and cheap Table 8.3  SWOT analysis quadrant for biogas technology in South Africa S Strengths 1 Favourable geographic position to produce biogas energy 2 Policy environment facilitating the implementation of biogas technology 3 Open market investment 4 O 1 2 3 4

W Weaknesses 1 High initial investment cost 2 3

Bureaucratic roadblocks and processes

Failure or underperformance of previous biogas systems Reduction of dependence on fossil fuels 4 Production and usage could lead to GHG emissions if not properly managed Opportunities T Threats Global awareness to promote climate 1 Lack of government support, such as change subsidies and incentives International support funding and 2 Biogas production could be affected by regional integrations changes in feedstock availability or cost Growth in electricity demand because of 3 Dominance of fossil fuels such as coal an increase in population Jobs creation and skills development in 4 Unstable biogas market the biogas sector

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energy available to all citizens (Department of Energy 2015; Uhunamure and Shale 2021). Weaknesses—Most farmers and small- to medium-sized businesses cannot afford AD systems because of their high costs (Rahmatzafran et  al. 2020). High investment costs are always associated with renewable energy technology, such as biogas production technology, especially in the early stages of development. In contrast to conventional fossil fuel, biogas production requires up-front costs for operation and maintenance as well as for the cost of locally sourced raw materials (Uhunamure and Shale 2021). Additionally, there are government bureaucratic roadblocks, whereby legislative processes (local, municipal, and national legislation) are not streamlined and properly aligned. The procedures leading to license clearance for biogas technology development have shown to be extremely challenging in a number of studies and by many stakeholders. This is because there are multiple institutions involved, and each of them has its own set of permit requirements, thereby making it time-consuming to obtain these permits (Mahama et al. 2020; Moorthy et al. 2019). Opportunities—South Africa’s population has continued to grow exponentially, resulting in an increase in energy demand. The biogas industry has the ability to significantly contribute to South Africa’s energy supply in order to meet the growing electricity demand. Several international organisations have collaborated with the South African government to provide financial assistance in the implementation of technologies with reduced carbon footprints (Gujba et al. 2012). As a means of collaborating on the improvement of biogas technologies, the biogas industry can capitalise on this opportunity to further regional integration. Additionally, there is a growing concern on the part of the government about the effects of fossil fuels. As there is an increased global awareness to promote climate change, biogas technology offers a solution that is harmless to the environment, thereby substituting fossil fuels (Uhunamure and Shale 2021). Threats—The inability of the government to provide financial and policy support can make it challenging for biogas technology to gain momentum and compete favourably with other energy sources. Because of the prevalence of fossil fuels, such as coal, it can be challenging for biogas technology to gain market share. It is quite improbable that the government would transition away from coal as its principal energy source (Department of Energy 2015). This is because fossil fuels are typically less expensive and have a long history of use. In addition, the market for biogas can be prone to instability because of fluctuations in the prices of feedstock, the cost of production, and the level of demand for the technology.

8.4.2 Porter’s Five-Forces Analysis Conducting a P5F analysis for implementing biogas production technologies in South Africa and Ghana can help in identifying the competitive dynamics of the biogas technology industry in these countries and informing strategies for success

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within the market. Using the P5F model, this study assesses the attractiveness of the biogas market in Ghana and South Africa for potential new entrants to the sector. The evaluation is based on the variables which include the threat of new entrants, the threat of substitute products or services, the bargaining power of suppliers, the bargaining power of buyers and competitive rivalry (Rahmatzafran et  al. 2020; Department of Energy 2015; Uhunamure and Shale 2021). 8.4.2.1 P5F Analysis for Biogas Technology in Ghana • Threat of new entrants (low risk): Ghana’s renewable energy development is supported by government policies. The government’s objective of obtaining 10% renewable energy penetration by 2020, as initially stated in the Renewable Energy Act 832 of 2011, has been extended because of low industry investment (Energy Commission 2011; Parliament of Ghana 2020). However, the government appears to be more concerned with solar photovoltaic as a source of renewable energy than with biogas, as the plan for bioenergy policy is currently still being formulated since 2010 (Rahmatzafran et al. 2020). Most biogas technology investment has been driven by donor-funded projects, and the private sector aimed specifically to address the issue of waste management. Companies who are presently using biogas technology for waste management claim that they are doing so in order to meet EPA standards for waste disposal. New entry may be unlikely because biogas implementation is not prioritised in the country. However, Ghana’s government policy is to drive biogas technology for households and communities as a solution for energy generation. • Threat of substitute products or services (moderate risk): Biogas technology in Ghana competes with solar and wind power as well as conventional fossil fuels. In addition, it competes with waste-to-energy solutions such as incineration and landfilling. Although incineration may be less expensive than other waste management options, it is less environmentally friendly and produces more greenhouse emissions than biogas technology. Despite the widespread usage of landfilling, it has adverse effects on the environment. • Bargaining power of suppliers (high risk): The cost and availability of feedstock have a major impact on the biogas production technology’s success. If feedstock becomes scarce or expensive, suppliers’ bargaining power may increase. There is a high risk associated with biogas suppliers in Ghana. Typically, foreign companies are contracted to supply biogas equipment because it is unavailable locally. According to Rahmatzafran et al. (2020), a leading biogas firm revealed that their technology supplies, such as CHP equipment, are sometimes imported from developed countries such as Germany. Owing to the affordability of goods made in China, there may be price competition since most Ghanaian companies choose instead to import from China. The total risk of biogas providers is increased by external variables such as the volatility of the local currency and high exchange rates.

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• Bargaining power of buyers (moderate risk): The biogas industry relies heavily on government policies and regulations, as well as customer willingness to adopt biogas technology. Buyers’ bargaining power may be reduced if they are unwilling to pay a premium for biogas or if government support is lacking. Customers interested in biogas installations will exert moderate pressure on the bargaining power of biogas players in Ghana. Sanitation applications of biogas technology have gained widespread recognition in Ghana. There is still a gap in knowledge regarding the use of technology for energy-related purposes. Furthermore, there are limited data available on the prospective buyers of biogas systems. Customers gain from the technology primarily because it improves the environment, as opposed to an increase in revenue for businesses. Landowners and farmers, food processors, and waste management companies are the three categories of potential customers in Ghana. • Competitive rivalry (low risk): There is currently limited competitive rivalry since the biogas sector is still new and not fully established. Most companies in Ghana are unable to construct large-scale digesters because they lack the necessary capacity. Foreign companies are typically the ones responsible for the installation of large-scale digesters. Around 20 institutions are working on the design and building of residential and industrial biogas plants in various parts of the country (Rahmatzafran et al. 2020). Because of the lack of demand for biogas digesters, some of these companies do not solely focus on biogas. Biogas Technologies Africa Limited is one of Ghana’s leading fixed-dome digester installers, which has several United Nations–funded large-­ scale digesters in Africa and might be the only competition for new entrants (BTAL n.d.). 8.4.2.2 P5F Analysis for Biogas Technology in South Africa • Threat of new entrants (moderate risk): Risks are part of the barriers to entry, which necessitate adjustment of the strategic approach. It was discovered that new entrants face industry barriers that are unique to the industry they are trying to break into. The high level of government debt is one example of a macro-level threat as well as other external threats, which include trade policies of other countries and fluctuating exchange rates. Moreover, the renewable energy market in South Africa already has high investment and sunk costs associated with environmental impact assessments, market research, and bid preparation costs that are nonrefundable. This high capital requirement is one of the primary challenges that require adjustments. The majority of domestic businesses rely on foreign technology partners that provide funding for the technology and support the market activities. It is highly unlikely that new market entrants will be successful if a reliable South African counterpart is not involved. Additionally, international partners may be required to

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assist local businesses to ensure that the liability associated with the technology is covered. • Threat of substitute products or services (moderate risk): There is a moderate risk posed by the number of substitute products, which can be mitigated with simple operational solutions. This is because biogas-generated electricity is not competitively priced. Some products have the possibility to be substituted with biogas as a result of several motivating factors, and these include petrol or diesel for transportation fuel, coal for electricity generation, wind or solar for renewable electricity and composting and thermal treatment for solid waste treatment. For instance, the lower cost of biogas for transportation and the reduction of GHG emissions from coal and diesel power generation. The risk associated with buyer propensity to substitute is moderate. This is because biogas is underrepresented in the country’s energy plan, and the absence of a regulatory framework for biogas restricts the ability of purchasers to find suitable alternatives. • Bargaining power of suppliers (moderate risk): The size and number of suppliers pose a moderate risk. Most local suppliers of biogas technology and equipment are subcontracted to foreign suppliers, primarily European companies. Moderate risk is posed by the uniqueness of each supplier’s product. The South African market is sufficiently quality-conscious from a price-versus-quality perspective. Nonetheless, low-cost, low-quality systems have gained traction. • Bargaining power of buyers (high risk): In the past, a small number of local businesses developed limited biogas projects. However, there has been the need to expand the biogas projects, meaning that demand has increased over time. A biogas project’s development takes between 3 and 5 years from the beginning of the project’s initial scoping to the financial close. A long lead time of about 12 to 18  months is mostly required to complete environmental impact assessments. Typically, a biogas project’s total development costs in South Africa range from R2 million to R7 million, with about half of that amount at risk if it is not successful. The investment cost is reflected in the selling cost, which then ends up being excessively high. Without subsidies, the number of buyers tends to be very low and thus, making buyers seek alternative sources of energy (Rahmatzafran et al. 2020). • Competitive rivalry (low risk): Existing competitors’ competition poses a low risk in the South African biogas market because of the high level of specialisation among project developers, who use various feedstocks for their projects. Examples of such stakeholders include Agama for rural and residential projects, Bio2Watt for livestock manure projects, and Fountain Green Energy for landfill gas projects, among others. Although competition is fierce in the local market, there is a high cost of capital and a poor rate of return, meaning that only a few ventures are feasible each year. Therefore, proofs of concept and successful local adaptations play a significant role in enhancing competitiveness in the market.

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8.5 Barriers and Drivers of Biogas Technology Implementation in SSA The most important barriers and drivers are identified to help stakeholders make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment, and other critical factors that impact the success of biogas technology in SSA. Based on the market and risk analysis, Ghana and South Africa share several similarities. This suggests that the analysis may not be too distinct from those of the remaining SSA countries. The details of the barriers and drivers are further discussed.

8.5.1 Key Barriers There are several barriers that influence the development of biogas technologies in SSA. They can be categorised into technical, economic, social, policy, market and competency and organisational barriers, as presented in Table  8.4 (Hasan et  al. 2020; Rahmatzafran et al. 2020). In addition to a number of other factors, feedstock collection has been recognized as a potential bottleneck in the effective implementation of biogas facilities. There may be issues with the feedstock because of the inconsistent amount and quality. The transport of small quantities of feedstock to the biogas plant will generate significant traffic and associated costs (Rahmatzafran et al. 2020).

8.5.2 Business Drivers 8.5.2.1 Cost Implementing a biogas plant in SSA could incur high investment and operational costs. It is necessary to spread out the initial high investment costs over several years (AEBIOM 2009). Although the initial investment cost of biogas technology may appear to be high, it can be cost-effective in the long run. Karellas et al. (2010) designed an Investment Decision Tool (IDT) that computes the economic performance of a biogas plant based on its net present value (NPV), simple payback period and internal rate of return (IRR). IDT has been applied in European commercial biogas plants, which use energy crops and agricultural wastes as feedstock for electricity generation (Karellas et al. 2010; Rupf et al. 2017). However, for developing countries in SSA, a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet containing a biogas calculation tool is provided to help plant designers conduct a technical and financial assessment (Rupf et al. 2017). As a result of using locally available resources, the cost of raw materials is low, making biogas production a relatively inexpensive source of energy. Additionally,

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Table 8.4  Key barriers to biogas technology implementation Category Technical

Economic

Government/policy

Social

Market

Organisational and Competence

Barriers • Insufficient feedstock • Inconsistency of feedstock quality • Water unavailability • Importation of biogas technology equipment • Planning and installation issues • Unpredictable financial support • High capital requirement • Fluctuating foreign exchange rate • Insufficient incentives to invest • Uncertain return on investment • High level of government debt. • Lack of financial policy • Limited incentives and subsidies • Insufficient attention from the government • Bureaucratic complexity • Lack of knowledge of biogas’s potential uses • Unawareness of the existing policies • Perceived undesirable environmental impacts of feedstock • Political aversion • Resistance to change • Disparities in socioeconomic status between urban and rural areas • Unsettled energy market • Underdeveloped biogas market • Absence of global carbon market involvement • Competition with fossil fuels • Lack of technical expertise • Inadequate research and development • Disjointed efforts in the biogas project development • Unfamiliarity with biogas technology

biogas production can reduce waste management costs, such as transportation and landfill costs. Moreover, biogas technology can be implemented at various scales, from small-scale household units to large-scale industrial units. This flexibility in size enables investors to choose a size that best suits their budget and energy needs, making biogas to be financially promising. If the price of producing biogas is too high, it may not be a viable alternative to conventional fossil fuels. However, if the price is lower, biogas can be an attractive option for consumers. 8.5.2.2 Environmental Protection The need to reduce GHG emissions is a driver for the sustainable use of biogas technology. The uncontrolled use of traditional biomass resources is causing environmental issues such as land degradation in arid regions, flooding, forest destruction, and accelerated soil erosion. Given that over 90% of the population in SSA

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relies on fossil fuels for energy, primarily for cooking, these environmental concerns are significant (Iiyama 2013; Rupf et  al. 2017). However, biogas produces significantly fewer emissions than fossil fuels when burned. It produces neither particulate matter nor heavy metals and has a low sulphur content, which reduces the likelihood of acid rain. Moreover, biogas technology can also help to preserve biodiversity by reducing the amount of waste that goes into landfills, thereby protecting natural habitats and ecosystems. Communities would benefit greatly from this in terms of the environment and health, especially in areas where waste management could be a challenge. As businesses strive to reduce their carbon footprint, biogas technology has emerged as a viable option for meeting emissions targets set by industry associations and the government. Businesses can obtain financial incentives from carbon markets to reduce their GHG emissions. Biogas projects can earn carbon credits, which can be sold on carbon markets in order to offset emissions from other sources by generating renewable energy from organic waste. This can create revenue for biogas projects and can help to support their growth and development. Business would not only reduce their environmental impact but also position themselves as industry leaders in sustainable practices, which can be a competitive advantage in today’s market. 8.5.2.3 Government A favourable political environment, such as government support and infrastructure, fosters the development and expansion of the biogas industry. A government that supports and prioritises renewable energy, particularly biogas, can encourage the creation of a stable and successful industry. Governments can provide financial incentives and subsidies to support biogas technology investment and research and development, as well as create favourable policies. They can provide regulatory frameworks that facilitate the development of biogas projects and the integration of biogas into existing energy schemes. In certain cases, governments have also played a more active role in biogas project implementation. For instance, governments may make an investment in large-scale biogas production facilities that can produce substantial quantities of renewable energy for businesses or communities. They may also contribute to the creation of biogas infrastructure, such as pipelines and storage facilities, to facilitate biogas distribution and use. The government can drive biogas technology adoption by using it to meet the country’s energy needs. For example, they could use biogas to generate electricity for public buildings or power public transportation systems. Governments can help to accelerate biogas adoption and support the transition to more sustainable energy systems by taking a proactive approach to biogas implementation. This would demonstrate the benefits and viability of biogas technology in SSA, thereby encouraging broader adoption and support for the biogas industry’s growth.

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8.5.2.4 Energy Security The assurance of a reliable and consistent energy supply at an affordable price is one of the key business drivers of biogas technology. Countries that are highly dependent on the importation of fossil fuels are more vulnerable to disruptions in supply and fluctuations in price, both of which can have an effect on the economic and energy security of those countries. Countries that invest in biogas technology can improve their energy security by reducing their reliance on foreign energy sources, as well as promote local economic development by creating local jobs and businesses. Biogas production is often decentralized in rural areas with lots of organic waste. Thus, local farmers and waste management companies can generate revenue from waste and create jobs in building and maintaining biogas facilities. 8.5.2.5 Waste Management The raw materials needed for biogas production, such as organic waste and agricultural residues, are the by-products of various human activities and thus require effective waste management. With proper waste management practices, these raw materials can be collected, sorted, and processed to ensure that they are suitable for use as feedstock in the production of biogas. This can include separating organic waste from other waste streams, using clean storage facilities to prevent contamination, and optimizing feedstock processing. In addition to ensuring a consistent and sustainable supply of feedstock, good waste management practices help to reduce the environmental impact of waste disposal. Waste management is not only crucial for the wastes coming into the biogas plant as feedstock but also for managing the by-products generated in the plant. 8.5.2.6 Social Setup The demand for biogas technology would increase when the communities and citizens are enlightened on the benefits of biogas. Citizen engagement could further increase investor confidence and attract private investment. For example, community-­ owned biogas projects can provide investors with a consistent and predictable revenue stream while also stimulating economic growth in the local areas. The citizens in SSA nations would have a sense of ownership because of community involvement, which can attract additional investments. Pipelines and distribution networks for transporting biogas to homes and businesses must be constructed to support biogas production. The construction of these pipelines and networks can be expensive and time-consuming. However, once established, these networks can provide a dependable and reliable means of transporting biogas to consumers. The construction of biogas plants in strategic locations, such as near urban areas or feedstock sources, can also help to increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of biogas production and distribution.

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8.6 Products 8.6.1 Biogas Pathway and its Application in SSA Several products can be obtained from a biogas plant, such as biogas and digestate. Biogas as a product can be used for different purposes, as presented in Fig. 8.2. The biogas may be utilised for the production of electricity and heat jointly (a process known as cogeneration) and the production of electricity or heat separately. The upgraded biogas has several applications, which include injection into the gas grid, fuel for transportation, high-tech energy processing, and raw materials for chemical industries. In comparison with other renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, biogas has the advantage of being able to be stored, allowing it to be used when necessary, regardless of whether the sun or wind is present. Digestate can be used in agriculture as fertilisers and soil conditioners (Pöschl et al. 2010).

8.6.2 Product Features • PF.1 Energy yield: It is expected that biogas should have a high energy content, meaning that it will deliver a greater amount of energy per volume than other gases, such as propane or natural gas. Typically, the energy content of the biogas is high enough that it is a valuable energy source for electricity generation, heating, and transportation. This high energy content and composition are dependent on the feedstock and digestion process. 1  m3 of natural gas, which is mostly methane, has a lower value of 35.8 MJ per Nm3 and a higher heating value of

Fig. 8.2  Efficient biogas pathways

204

•

•

•

•

• •

E. C. Onyekaozuoro et al.

39.8  MJ  per  Nm3. In comparison, the heating value of biogas is reduced to 21.5 MJ per Nm3 if it is dry and contains only about 60% methane (Inoplex 2022). PF.2 Purity: The gas produced ought to have low levels of impurities such as moisture, CO2, H2S, and other trace gases to guarantee that it is safe to use and to increase the amount of energy value (Basu et al. 2010; Andlar et al. 2021). For instance, water can consist of about 10% of biogas, which decreases the biogas energy potential and shortens the lifespan and efficiency of a combined heat and power plant. Adequate purification and drying processes lead to purer biogas (Inoplex 2022). PF.3 Stability of content: The expected composition (50–70% methane, 2–7% water at 20 to 40  °C, 25–45% CO2, 0–6000  ppm of H2S, and other gases) is achieved to meet specifications and quality standards suitable for the intended use. Biogas should contain a high methane content of at least 60% to efficiently produce energy. With very high methane content, the biogas can be used for vehicle fuel production and for advanced products such as upgrading the biogas to natural gas (Akbulut et al. 2021; Inoplex 2022). Biogas quality and reliability depend on biogas stability. The composition of biogas can change if its content is unstable, affecting downstream processes that use it as fuel. For instance, biogas with high impurities or moisture can damage equipment or reduce energy output. PF.4 Affordability: The biogas is produced at a competitive cost that is comparable with traditional energy sources. Pricing is an important factor that plays a significant role in determining the level of acceptance and popularity of biogas in SSA. It may be possible to lower the cost of producing biogas and the price at which it is sold to end users through the use of feed-in tariffs, tax credits, and subsidies. This could ultimately lead to an increase in the use of biogas. PF.5 Flexibility: Biogas should have the potential to be used in several applications and is easily integrated into existing infrastructure. This includes the use of biogas for cooking, heating, electricity generation, and transportation fuel in liquefied or compressed form. This flexibility enables biogas to be used in various settings, ranging from small-scale decentralized systems to large-scale centralized facilities. PF.6 Fuel efficiency: Increased biogas fuel efficiency can result in market attractiveness for consumers and businesses, thereby increasing the demand for the technology and possibly reducing reliance on fossil fuels. PF.7 Sustainability: Although biogas production reduces GHG emissions because it is produced from biomass and organic waste, there are several factors that determine biogas sustainability. These include the production process’s environmental impact, GHG emissions reduction, waste feedstock use, and long-term viability.

Based on literature research and expert opinions, the correlation between the business drivers and the product features was determined, as shown in Table 8.5. Business drivers and product features are represented on the x-axis and y-axis, respectively. Experts assign weight to the business drivers and rate their correlation

Weight PF.1 Energy yield PF.2 Purity PF.3 Stability of content PF.4 Affordability PF.5 Flexibility PF.6 Fuel efficiency PF.7 Sustainability 3 2 1 1

0 0 3 3

3 2 1 2

Note: 3—high relation, 2—medium relation, 1—low relation, and 0—no relation

Product Features

Code

Government D.3 5 1 0 0

Business drivers Environmental Cost protection D.1 D.2 4 3 2 0 1 2 1 2

Table 8.5  Correlation matrix of product features and business drivers

3 2 2 2

Energy security D.4 3 3 1 2 0 0 0 1

Waste management D.5 2 2 1 3 2 2 0 2

Social setup D.6 2 0 0 0

40 28 24 34

26 15 22

1 3 5 2

4 7 6

Precedence Priority

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with the product features on the y-axis, using a scale of 0 to 3, where 0 denotes no correlation, and 3 denotes complete correlation (Hansen et  al. 2016; Daim and Faili 2019). Prioritization may then be made based on the combined weight of business drivers and product features, which is presented in the precedence column. Figure 8.3 highlights the product features in the roadmap based on priority.

8.7 Technologies 8.7.1 Pretreatment This involves the use of feedstock processing equipment. Depending on the type of feedstock, equipment such as grinders, mixers, and pumps may be required to prepare and transport the material to the digester. These machines are essential for the proper processing of the feedstock, as they break down larger particles into smaller ones that can be easily digested by microorganisms, thereby increasing the efficiency of the biogas production process (Christensen 2011). In addition, the use of pumps ensures the consistent and efficient transport of feedstock to the digester, maintaining a constant flow of material for digestion and biogas production.

8.7.2 Digestion Anaerobic digester is the primary equipment used in biogas production. It is a sealed container in which microorganisms decompose organic matter in the absence of oxygen to produce biogas. The pretreated waste is converted to biogas and digestate through anaerobic digestion. The digestion system comprised the following functions, storage and feeding system, preheating of the biomass, mixing of new biomass and active microorganisms, gas collection system, and separation of solid and liquid digestate. There are various types of anaerobic digesters, including batch, continuous, and plug-flow, each with its own benefits and drawbacks. The

Fig. 8.3  Roadmap of business drivers and product features

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technology ranges from complex, highly engineered large, capacity plants to simple, single-family plants that are run by the owner (Christensen 2011). The temperature and pH level within the anaerobic digester needs to be maintained at the appropriate level for optimal microbial activity. The temperature can be maintained with the use of heating and cooling systems, whereas the addition of chemicals or other substances is used to adjust pH levels.

8.7.3 Gas Handling and Purification The gas treatment and storage system collect and prepares the biogas produced for its final use. The necessity for gas treatment is highly dependent on the final use of the gas. Typically, the gas produced by the digestion process is water-saturated and contains approximately 64% methane. In addition, it contains carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulphide, and ammonium in trace amounts. Biogas typically contains impurities such as moisture, carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulphide, and other trace gases that must be removed before they can be utilised. This can be achieved through various purification technologies such as filtration, scrubbing, and membrane separation.

8.7.4 Gas Storage and Safety Biogas is a flammable gas and requires that all safety measures should be in place. The biogas technology would have built-in safety functions such as gas detection, ventilation, and fire suppression. Biogas is a volatile gas that must be kept in safe and secure containers. This can be accomplished through various storage technologies, such as low-pressure storage, high-pressure storage, and underground storage. The need for gas storage is highly dependent on the intended gas usage. In some instances, gas is delivered directly to a power plant, eliminating the need for storage. In other instances, storage is required for the efficient operation of gas handling facilities (Christensen 2011).

8.7.5 Gas Utilisation As previously shown in Fig. 8.2, biogas can be broadly utilised in four main applications, and this includes heat production, power and heat production, vehicle fuel production, and upgrading of biogas to natural gas quality. Each of these utilisations requires different technologies before their application (Christensen 2011; EPA 2015).

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• Heat production: Direct combustion in a boiler for use within the plant or sale to the local district heating network is the simplest application of biogas. Smaller plants are feasible for this type of application, where the additional cost of treatment is not economically viable under current market conditions. • Power and heat production: This is the most common application for biogas. Pretreatment only necessitates the removal of water and H2S. Then, gas can then be used in a standard gas engine. • Vehicle fuel production: In order to increase the methane content of the gas to above 95% so that it meets the requirements for vehicle fuel, more carbon dioxide must be removed than usual in addition to water and hydrogen sulphide. Various commercial processes are available for this upgrade. • Upgrading of biogas to natural gas quality: A higher methane content is required when the gas is upgraded to natural gas quality. Many technologies that achieve this are still under development, but they are either too expensive or too niche to be widely implemented. The upgrade is appealing in areas where a natural gas network exists because it is relatively simple to ensure smooth and safe gas delivery. However, the current process must be highly subsidised.

8.7.6 Monitoring and Control Systems Biogas production and utilisation must be effectively monitored and managed to ensure optimal performance and safety. This can be accomplished by employing advanced sensors, data management software and control systems. The sensors are used to measure process parameters such as temperature, pH, and gas flow, which can then be used to optimise and adjust the biogas production process. Control systems are utilised to automate the process, enabling precise control and real-time adjustments as needed. The data management software enables the collection, analysis, and storage of data, which provides valuable insights into the performance of the biogas system and enables the identification of potential problems and improvement opportunities. The plant should be kept free from odour. The odour from the raw waste, from the digester and any other biological processes at the biogas plant is controlled. This is due to the fact that organic solid waste, which can be up to 2 weeks old when it arrives at the biogas plant, can cause serious odour problems. Heavy odour problems can occur, especially during warm weather periods. In addition, there can be a heavy odour from the anaerobic process itself, particularly the production of hydrogen sulphide. Air must be purified to eliminate odour issues from biogas plants. Biological filters, dilution of the ventilation air, and chemical scrubbers are some examples of odour control systems.

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8.7.7 Technology Features • TF.1 Codigestion: Codigestion, which involves combining feedstocks, such as sewage sludge and organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW), or animal manure and crop residues, can supply the appropriate nutritional balance and increase methane yield (Adebayo et  al. 2014; Rupf et  al. 2017). For instance, adding a high-nitrogen feedstock such as livestock manure to a low-nitrogen feedstock such as food waste can improve biogas plant efficiency by balancing the nutrient profile. Similarly, adding lipid-rich feedstocks, such as oil or grease, can boost the biogas production process’s methane yield. Codigestion can also help to mitigate the negative effects of variable feedstock, which is sometimes caused by differences in feedstock quality or seasonal changes. Nevertheless, combining various feedstocks can help to stabilize the process and guarantee consistent biogas production throughout the year. • TF.2 Automation: In order to achieve peak efficiency and maintain a high level of user protection, biogas technology needs to be equipped with fully automated smart systems. The volumetric loading rate, organic loading rate, and retention time can be controlled by automating the process of adding organic materials to the anaerobic digester. This would ensure optimal microbial activity and biogas production. More examples of automation include automated bag filling by robots and loading forklifts using artificial intelligence. These advancements are expected to lower costs while improving process stability and safety performance. Simultaneously, using a centralized and automated approach to control plant performance should allow for better operation steering and faster response when corrections are required. • TF.3 High-rate anaerobic digestion: Advanced anaerobic digestion systems that operate at high rates and temperatures could boost biogas yields and shorten processing times. The duration of solid particle retention is greater than the duration of the liquid retention in the digester, which traps methane-producing microorganisms and increases efficiency (Hamilton 2017). • TF.4 Membrane-based separation: Creating new and more efficient membrane-­ based separation technologies to improve biogas quality and separate and recover high-value products such as carbon dioxide or hydrogen. These technologies aid in lowering emissions, improving resource recovery, and increasing process efficiency (Basu et al. 2010). • TF.5 Combined heat and power: Using biogas in a CHP plant can achieve energy efficiencies of up to 90%, which means less energy is wasted during the conversion process. Most facilities generate heat with natural gas boilers, which typically convert fuel to thermal energy at a 75–85% efficiency. CHP needs less fuel to generate the same amount of energy and eliminates the distribution and transmission losses that occur when electricity is transmitted through power lines. If the heat from electricity production is recovered and reused onsite, CHP systems can achieve 65–80% of total system efficiency, whereas some systems can achieve 90% efficiency (US EPA 2015).

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• TF.6 Hybrid bioreactor: This is a reactor that uses the benefits of suspended solids and biofilm reactors and is regarded to be better than other bioreactors (Banerjee et al. 2021). The hybrid bioreactor is designed to allow the separation of phases, which improves both the stability of the process and the amount of biogas produced at larger total solids loadings. The hybrid system has been shown to be effective in providing stability and high biogas yields (Varol and Ugurlu 2016). • TF.7 Internet of things (IoT): Real-time monitoring of biogas production parameters such as pH levels, temperature, and gas composition is possible with IoT sensors. Operators may find it easier to identify potential problems early and optimize the production process for maximum yield and efficiency. This monitoring system will minimize biogas malfunctioning because of improper feeding and operation, helping end users obtain biogas status information and predict biogas yields. According to a study on an IoT-based biogas monitoring system, the biogas prediction model has an accuracy of about 65–70% accuracy using gradient boosting, K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) and decision tree machine learning algorithms (Jean Claude 2021). • TF.8 Direct air capture of carbon dioxide: Direct air capture (DAC) is a technology that uses specialized equipment to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. This captured CO2 can be utilised as input material for biogas production, thereby providing a sustainable carbon source for the process. The development of efficient and cost-effective DAC technologies for use in biogas production is still ongoing (Akpasi and Isa 2022). • TF.9 Hydrothermal liquefaction: Hydrothermal liquefaction is a process that uses high pressure and temperature to convert biomass into liquid fuel. This method can be applied to the generation of energy from a wide range of biomass feedstocks, including lignocellulosic materials and wet waste (Elliott et al. 2015). • TF.10 Cryogenic separation: This technology for purifying biogas operates on the principle that different gases condense at different temperatures. The raw biogas is first sent through a series of compressors and heat exchangers, where it is progressively cooled to about −170 °C and compressed (8 MPa). This process removes halogens, siloxanes, liquid CO2, and the remaining CO2 in the solid phase. Cryogenic separation is highly beneficial because no chemicals are required, and there is relatively low methane loss (100 years [14]

D14

Local, State, and Federal Legislation

Adopt rate structures that encourage water conservations [17]. Water Efficiency Program [18]. Storm-water management credit program [19].

D15

Aging Water and Sewer System

Local gov. open up bids for municipal water projects to all suitable materials [8].

D16

Slow Toilet Turnover

Toilet Replacement $50 Credit, part of the larger water efficiency program policy [20].

Ease of Use

Policy and Regulation

Category

Saves Water

Superior Waste Handling

Convenience

Driver

Label

Definition

Feature

P1

Separate Flush Size for large, medium, small sized loads

P2

Reduce water usage per flush

P3

Improved Auto flush capability

P4

Built in water meter

P5

Air-pressure vacuum toilet

P6

Built in wall tank design

P7

Air bidet

P8

Recycled water for flushing

P9

Poop grinder

P10

Filter for non-flushable items

P11

Improved water treatment options

P12

Robust liquid and solid separation

P13

No stink no flush toilets

P14

Anti-clogging sensor

P15

Composting Toilet

P16

Soft close lid

P17

Easy installation

P18

Built-in Bidet with dryer

P19

Adjustable seat height

P20

Built-in wheels for ease of access for disabled people

Weight (Value)

Weight

Low

1

Medium

2

Medium

2

352

Appendices

Appendices

353

The Poo Loo 30: • The advanced composting toilet - Easy installation, no hassle poop grinder with a clever soft close lid. No water and no high sewer bills. Simply bag and tag for your local pickup. The Poo Loo 40: • Built for the modern home • Easily and conveniently separates liquid and solid waste into advanced waste management systems using minimal water and into a digester that converts waste into a revenue generating waste stream. The Poo Loo 50: • Our most sophisticated Loo yet. • Advanced technology and comfort. Converts human waste into drinkable water and nutrient cakes that are easily disposed outside with no sanitation or smell risks. • Includes clever, electronic health monitoring.

Category

Technology

Label

Gap?

Minimize water utilization for flushing purposes

T1

Yes

Toilet Design

Change the design to minimize water used for flushing

T2

Yes

Water Meters

Accurately measure the amount of water used per flush

T3

Yes

Separate urine from fecal matter at source (toilets)

T4

Yes

Reduce Water Use Water Conservation

Filter Technology Waste Handling & Treatment

Materials that allow easy flow of denser solid waste

T5

Yes

Convert excreta into usable material

T6

Yes

Water flow - To measure amount of water used for flushing Proximity - Accurately predict when person is using the toilet Optical - Accurately predict load size Heat - To warm up toilet seat before use

T7

No

Machine Learning

Algorithm to predict amount of water to be used based upon load size

T8

Yes

Integrated Circuit

Modules that can integrate functionality of above sensors & algorithms

T9

No

Entertainment

Speakers and Monitor Screen for entertainment while using toilets

T10

No

Water Proofing

Materials that prevent electronics from getting destroyed in case of water splash

T11

No

Sewage Lines Composting

Sensors

Electronics

Description

354

Appendices

Appendices

355

Category

Resources

Label

Definition

R&D

Private Funding

R1

Private groups like The Gates Foundation are sponsoring forums to address large social problems like water conservation [41]

Public sector innovation in toilet technology is not commercially incentivized and needs private funding to drive innovation.

T1, T2, T3, T4

Government Funding

R2

Local, state, and federal agencies provide funds to improve waste collection systems and technology [42]

Provide funding for incentivizing new commercial / residential markets, overhauling wastewater systems, and educating the public and builders.

T1, T2, T3, T4,T5,T6

University Partnerships

R3

University research labs drive innovation from engineers and scientists [43]

Engineering disciplines along with other researchers are needed to take up the innovation challenge for water conservation, fluid dynamics, and advanced technologies.

T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6, T8

Gap

Technology

Definition

Gap

Technology

Category

Resources

Label

Policy

Partner w/ NGO's

R4

Sustainability NGO's lobby governments to legislate improved water conservation standards and public health measures [44]

Regulatory requirements for reducing wastewater and increasing water conservation needed to guide the private sector

T1, T2, T4, T6

Building Code

R5

Local and national building codes specify how builders design residential/commercial construction [45]

Revised building codes to allow new toilet design technologies

T2, T4, T5, T6

LEED Standards

R6

Voluntary design standards drive innovation in new construction and promote green building standards [46]

Tighter water conservation requirements for LEED certification

T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6, T8

356

Appendices

Appendices

357

358

Appendices

https://www.engadget.com/2016/09/17/six-technologies-that-produce-clean-safe-drinking-water/ https://www.portlandoregon.gov/water/article/179529 http://stepsforsanitation.org/resource-center/reinvented-toilet/ ttps://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/Global-Growth-and-Opportunity/Water-Sanitation-and-Hygiene/Reinvent-the-Toilet-Challengeand-Expo https://www.portlandoregon.gov/bes/article/538411 https://www.portlandoregon.gov/bes/article/690043 https://time.com/4098127/human-waste-energy-recycling/ e https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/climate/water-pipes-plastic-lead.html https://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/2019/04/portland-areas-population-growth-is-losing-steam-census-numbers-show.html https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterDocs/WillwqRpt.pdf https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/oregon https://water.unl.edu/article/wastewater/troubleshooting-septic-systems https://www.go-gba.org/resources/green-building-methods/composting-toilets/ https://homesteady.com/13417420/the-life-expectancy-of-toilets https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/08/contacts-down-the-drain/567850/

[16] Up to 10 cleanings/Day https://jan-pro.com/blog/how-often-is-workplace-restroom-cleaning-needed/ [17] Oregon Municipal Water Conservation https://www.oregon.gov/OWRD/WRDPublications1/Saving_Water_Municipal_Systems.pdf [18] Water efficiency program https://www.portlandoregon.gov/water/29334 [19] Stormwater Discount Program https://www.oregon.gov/OWRD/WRDPublications1/Saving_Water_Municipal_Systems.pdf [20] Toilet Replacement Program https://www.beavertonoregon.gov/346/Water-Efficiency-Rebate-Program [21] Development of water saving toilet-flushing mechanisms, Roubi A. Zaied, April 2018 https://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13201-018-0696-8 [22] https://bestflushingtoilet.org/dual-flush-vs-single-flush-toilet-comparison-chart/ [23] https://www.epa.gov/watersense/residential-toilets [24] https://theshinyhome.com/gravity-vs-pressure-assisted-toilets/ [25] https://sswm.info/water-nutrient-cycle/water-use/hardwares/toilet-systems/vacuum-toilet [26] https://homeworthylist.com/best-composting-toilet-reviews/ [27] https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-waterless-toilet-2016-11 [28] Charting a Path for Innovative Tilet Technology Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis, Environmental Science and Technology, 2008, page 1855. [29] http://www.richcoplumbing.com/epoxy-sewer-liner.html [30] https://www.marktechpost.com/2018/12/19/new-ai-toilets-can-scan-poop-to-detect-health-issues/

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[31] https://phys.org/news/2017-07-warehouses-robot-toilets-technologies-future.html [32] https://www.nps.gov/articles/denali-mountain-compost.htm [33] Composting toilets as a sustainable alternative to urban sanitation – A review by Chirjiv K. Anand, Defne S. Apul Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Toledo, MS 307, 2801 W. Bancroft St., Toledo, OH 43606, USA [34] https://compostingtoiletsusa.com/how-to-safely-compost-human-waste/ [35] https://www.elster.com/assets/products/products_elster_files/evoQ4Brochure.pdf [36] https://www.flowmeters.com/product-list.php?page=ultrasonic-technology/pg1cid100.html=/asc_action=SetCurrCat/category_id=100 [37] https://www.allianceforwaterefficiency.org/resources/topic/advanced-metering-infrastructure-system-template-request-proposals [38] https://incinolet.com/ [39] https://www.engadget.com/2011/04/16/kohlers-numi-6-400-high-tech-toilet-does-most-of-the-dirtywor/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAN7cPqbHlpuCRWbkI1MBk_cdhpMtCWdwcPididoD2yv153IBgdnEh_4IfZM_Uq1843EchgVdzYxwwxWvk5FhI7hfwiCiG_StIA29__0XPWeLJNbojePgXFcz3YD43dI__nndEeK Bq53dsQbT2ZKWEwKgvHI02OF9OReByeTxp9g [40] Llloyd District http://www.ecolloyd.org/wordpress/wpcontent/uploads/2011/10/lloyd_roadmap_FINAL_hires.pdf [41] https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs [42] https://new.usgbc.org/leed [43] https://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/Global-Growth-and-Opportunity/Water-Sanitation-and-Hygiene [44]https://www.portlandoregon.gov/bds/36809 [45] Betz, F. (2011). Managing technological innovation : Competitive advantage from change (3rd ed.). Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley.

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Water T-Map Product: Changing Toilet Design Team 1

NOW 2020

10 year model 2030

20 year model 2040

30 year model 2050 Market demand for

Drivers

Financial

Toilets are expensive.

Weather & Climate

Saves water

Rising water & water bill costs

Water Bills become too expensive for working class citizens

Recessions & Global Economy

Desire to save water & become for

Export clean water to poop countries

Increase population usin 1.6 to 3.6

Improved Sanitation

Cleaning public toilet more than 10 times a day

Ease of Use

Environment concerns about the watershed (rivers, animals, etc)

Superior waste handling

Spread public toilets all over the city

Sewage system combines black and gray water in most applications

2030 “Smart Toilet” with connected app that allows you to monitor water usage

Auto Cover & Seat that closes & opens

Light up lid/seat

Bluetooth & wifi on

Solar powered poop blaster

Solid waste recycling that wither composts or burns waste to produce energy

to nest smart

Soft Close Lid

Separate flush size

Built in toilet paper holder

Redu ced water usage per flush.

Easy to install toilets

Multiple setting lever for Heavy Duty, Medium Duty, and Light Duty Flushing Jobs.

Built in Bedit.

Bidet seats with dryer

Improved auto flu sh ca pa bili ty

Water meter on the toilet to monitor how much water you’ve used

Air Bide t

Filter to prevent non flushable items from being flushed into the sewer or septic systems

Air pressure and vacuum toilet

Poop Grinder

Tank in wall design - reducing bathroom footprints in new houses

Adjustable height seats

Reduced waterflow per flush toilets.

Vacuum system flush similar to ones used in airlines consume 1/3rd amount of water. Several advantages. Check link below

Recycled water for flushing (like how a fountain recycles water in a c)

https://science.howstuffworks.com/tra nsport/flight/modern/question314.ht m

Solar powered toilet that compacts solid waste and distributes clean gray water locally.

Robust liquid and solid separati on toilet

Incinerating toilets

No stink no-flush toilet

Water-less toilet Anti-clogging sensor, that automatically rectifies clogged toilet.

2030 Local solid waste collection technology

Internet of Things Sensor technologies.

of the night soil

2040 5G wireless technology.

Materials Technology for water lines.

Advanced solid liquid separation systems

Materials Technology for sewage lines.

2050 Small scale water treatment technology.

Microbial processors with no smell

Sensor Technology

Materials technology for seat composition

Filtering Technology including micro and nano particle filters

Machine Learning for smart sensors Divert the urine, burn the rest

Toilet with sanitary local digester that can allow waste to disposed of locally.

Smart Toilet, heated seats, built in Bidet, Anti-clogging function, with built in speakers for wireless connectivity

Toilet with 4 wheels for disability

Better water filtration to prevent drugs flushed in drinking water

Heating technologies for toilet seats.

Converting incinerated waste to energy on small scale and without harmful exhaust

No fume incinerating technology

Fluid Dynamics flush while you are

2020 Write Resources on Write Resources on Write Resources Purple boxes on Purple boxes Purple boxes

2050

Anti microbial seat

Technology

Resources

2040 Solid waste bags

Filters any smell/Deodorizing

2020

Write Technology on Write Technology on n Write oon BlueTechnology boxes Blue boxes Blue Blue boxes boxes

Gray water is helps black sewage flow through the pipes. Without it, pipes will clog more easily.

Aging sewer and plumbing systems

Self cleaning toilets and bathrooms

Electronic s/High Tech

Saves Water

Toilet Paper relies on utilizing too many resources, Trees.

Sanitation Needs

2020 Improved Sanitation

Convenience

compacted solid waste made from

Awareness through “smart” connect technology

Very slow turnover New toilets arn’t purchased very often

Local, State, & Federal Legistation

Sewage lines deteriorate to the point where replacement is unavoidable.

Water lines deteriorate to the point where replacement is unavoidable.

Emerging trend for composting toilets

People tend to flush lots of things down the toilet

Policy and Regulation

Products

Public

inceinerating toilets

Sensitive Septic Systems

Culturally acceptable

Increasing population & increasing are homeless population make sanitation needs high priority

Water bills cost more than oil

2030 Fliud Dynamics Research

State Funding

Startups & Tech disruptors

Local Funding

Private funding & reseach from private companies

Structural, Civil, Mechanical, Electrical Engineers

Federal Agencies

Environmental Non-Profit Organizations

Building Code Changes

LEED updates incentivizing new toilet technologies

Federal Funding

University Water Research labs

2040

2050

Demand for fertilizer skyrockets with increasing population.