Mobility and Transportation 9783868598841

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Casablanca •

Tehran-Karaj •

• Urumqi

Hyderabad • Addis Ababa • Lima • Gauteng •

• Hefei • Ho Chi Minh City

MOBILITY AND TRANSPORTATION Concepts for Sustainable Transportation in Future Megacities Wulf-Holger Arndt (Editor)

Book Series Future Megacities Vol. 2

The Book Series “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow” is sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through the funding priority “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow”. The authors would like to thank the Ministry for this initiative, for the financial support, and for the extraordinary opportunity to connect activity- and demand-oriented research with practical implementation in various pilot projects targeting the challenges of Future Megacities.

The book series “Future Megacities” is published by Elke-Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer, Lukas Born, Jan Müller and Ulrike Assmann, Technische Universität Berlin. The series contains the cross-cutting results of the nine projects. These results are the intellectual property of the authors.

Volume 2 “Mobility and Transportation” of the book series is edited by Wulf-Holger Arndt, TU Berlin. The editor would like to thank Jan Müller and Francisco Aguilera for their intensive support of the editing process.

Elke Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer, Lukas Born, Carsten Zehner

The Book Series "Future Megacities" The Global Urban Future The development of future megacities describes a new quality of urban growth, as the pace and the dynamics of urbanisation today are historically unprecedented. At the beginning of the twentieth century, only 20% of the world’s population lived in cities. Since 2010, however, the share of urban-dwellers has risen dramatically to above 50%. By 2050, the world population is predicted to have increased from 7.0 billion to 9.3 billion, and, by that time, 70% of people will be living in urban areas, many of them in urban corridors, city- or mega-urban regions [UN−DESA 2012; UN−Habitat 2012]. Urban areas contribute disproportionately to national productivity and to national GDP. Globally, they concentrate 80% of economic output [UN−Habitat 2012; UNEP 2011]. Due to this, urban areas are also very relevant in terms of energy consumption. Although cities cover only a small percentage of the earth’s surface,1 they are responsible for around 60−80% of global energy consumption, and approximately 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions [UNEP 2011]. In the future, this will increasingly count for cities in so-called developing countries as they will be responsible for about 80% of the increases in the global annual energy consumption between 2006 and 2030 [UN−Habitat 2011]. Hence, cities are significantly contributing to climate change while, at the same time, being the locations that have to deal with its devastating consequences, because many of them are located along the coast, close to rising sea levels, or in arid areas. Therefore, cities must take action to increase energy and resource efficiency, as well as climate-change mitigation and adaptation. As a growing phenomenon, megacities have a special role in this context and illustrate the urban challenges of the future. These urban centres are not only reaching new levels in terms of size, but are also confronted with new dimensions of complexity. Hence, they are facing multifaceted problems directly affecting the quality of life of their inhabitants. In many cases, indispensable assets—such as social and technical infrastructure, delivery of basic services, or access to affordable housing—are lacking. Capacities for urban management and legal frameworks tend to be chronically weak and are often insufficient when dealing with rapid population and spatial growth. Moreover, excessive consumption of resources, such as energy or water, further aggravates existing problems. In many countries, medium-sized cities in particular, are experiencing extraordinary growth rates. These “Future Megacities” are to be taken into consideration for sustainable urban development strategies, because they still offer the opportunity for precautionary action and targeted urban development towards sustainability [UNEP 2011].

BMBF’s Funding Priority on Future Megacities With its funding priority “Research for the Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow” the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) is focusing on

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climate-responsive and energy-efficient structures in large and fast-growing cities or megacities. The programme is a globally focused component of the Federal Government’s High-Tech Strategy in the field of action on “Climate and Energy”. Moreover, it is a part of the framework programme “Research for Sustainable Development” (FONA) of the BMBF. In its main phase (2008−2013), the funding priority currently covers nine international projects in future megacities of Asia (Tehran-Region, Hyderabad, Urumqi, Hefei, Ho Chi Minh City), Africa (Casablanca, Addis Ababa, Gauteng,) and Latin America (Lima). Each project focuses on a particular city working on a locally relevant thematic issue within the broader context of energy efficiency and climate change (for details, see “Projects in Brief”, 124 ff.). An outstanding characteristic of the programme is the integration of the sustainable development concept. Ecological, economic, and social facets of the development of climateresponsive and energy-efficient structures in urban growth centres are considered in a comprehensive and long-term manner. In this context, the programme follows an innovative methodology ranging from analysing spatial, social, and technical dimensions in combination with applied research, to using broad methodological approaches, such as pilot projects, action research, and research by design. Hence, the research approach here differs from other forms of fundamental research due to its practice-oriented focus that takes into account local needs as a basis for the development of applicable solutions. Therefore, the transdisciplinary research is conducted by interdisciplinary consortia with partners from research institutions, civil society, politics, and administration, as well as the private sector. International collaboration between project partners from Germany and the partner countries is an essential aspect of the programme. The objective of the Future Megacities Programme is to create good-practice solutions for sustainable urban development. Therefore, the bilateral teams perform the following tasks: 1. research, plan, develop, and realise technical and non-technical innovations for the establishment of climate-responsive and energy-efficient structures in an exemplary way 2. enable the city, along with its decision-makers and inhabitants, to bring about increased performance and efficiency gains in energy production, distribution, and use 3. demonstrate that the resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by the highenergy-consumption sectors can be reduced in a sustainable way in the future [DLR-PT 2012]

Outcomes and Results Outcomes of the projects have been generated in different thematic fields of action. Within these thematic areas, a great variety of good practices for building up climate-responsive and energy-efficient structures in urban growth centres has been generated—ranging from scientific knowledge, to analytical instruments and strategic models, all the way up to realised pilot-projects, innovative technologies, applied products, and locally implemented processes. Within the area of “Space, Planning, and Design”, solutions for increasing energy efficiency in architecture and urban design, instruments for integrated urban planning, and efficient management tools for climate-change mitigation and adaptation have been developed. In the field of action on “Energy and Sun”, concepts for the urban use of renewable energies with particular focus on solar power have been elaborated for different sectors in order to decrease the use of fossil fuels and to diminish carbon-dioxide emissions and air pollution. The area of action on “Resources” focuses on generating new approaches for the sustain-

6

PREFACE

able management of waste, the careful use of scarce resources such as water and land, as well as efficient material cycles in the industrial sector. Outcomes within the area of action on “Capacity Development” include measures for vocational training in different practical fields, as well as new concepts for education and awareness-raising. In the field of “Governance and Participation”, models for multi-stakeholder systems, new approaches to inclusive decision-making processes, as well as community participation and bottom-up engagement, have been developed. The topic “Mobility and Transportation” comprises concepts for sustainable transportation through intelligent management approaches, innovative planning instruments, and systems for enhancing public transit. This book series presents results generated within these thematic fields of action in terms of cutting-edge research as well as practical outcomes. This particular volume focuses on mobility and transportation. It describes challenges and strategies for sustainable mobility in five megacities—Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam), Hyderabad (India), Tehran-Karaj (Iran), Gauteng Province (South Africa) and Hefei (China). Additionally, all participating cities and projects are presented in the appendix, where the complexity of the research priority, the different approaches, and a short overview of the most important outcomes are shown References DLR-PT – Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. – Projektträger im DLR (2012): Research Programme Main Phase: Energy- and Climate Efficient Structures in Urban Growth Centres. http://future-megacities.org/ index.php?id=48&L=1, 15.02.2013 Seto, K. C./Güneralp, B./Hutyra, L.R. (2012): “Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools”. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/09/11/1211658109.full.pdf+html?with-ds=yes, 07.03.2013 Soya, E. (2010): “Regional Urbanization and the Future of Megacities”. In: Hall, P./Buijs, S./Tan, W./Tunas, D.: Megacities—Exploring A Sustainable Future. Rotterdam UN-DESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision. Highlights. http://esa.un.org/unup/pdf/WUP2011_Highlights.pdf, 15.02.2013 UNEP United Nations Environment Programme (2011): Cities Investing in energy and resource efficiency. http:// www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ger/GER_12_Cities.pdf, 15.02.2013 UN-Habitat (2011): Cities and Climate Change: Policy Directions. Global Report on Human Settlements 2011, Abridged Edition. http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/GRHS2011/GRHS.2011.Abridged.English.pdf, 15.02.2013 UN-Habitat (2012): State of the World’s Cities Report 2012/2013: Prosperity of Cities. http://www.un.int/wcm/ webdav/site/portal/shared/iseek/documents/2012/November/UNhabitat%20201213.pdf, 15.02.2013 Notes 1 The current coverage of urban land on the earth’s surface is often referred to as ”2%” [UNEP 2011]. The predicted increase of urban land is dramatic: by 2030, urban land coverage will increase by 1.2 million km², thereby tripling the global urban land areas compared to the year 2000. In other words: 65% of the urban land coverage on the planet by 2030 was, or will be, under construction between 2000−2030, 55% of that expansion arising from urbanisation will occur in India and China [Seto 2012]. According to Soya, cities tend to “Grow well beyond their defined administrational limits, typically spawning a multitude of suburbs in expanding annular rings. The outer edges thus came to be defined as … part of the Functional Urban Region (FUR)” [Soya 2010, 58].

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Index 5

Preface Elke Pahl-Weber, Bernd Kochendörfer, Lukas Born, Carsten Zehner

Introduction 12

Climate Change and Sustainable Transportation in Megacities Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek

Challenges and Strategies for Sustainable Mobility in Five Megacities

8

25

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam—Can HCMC Reach its CO2Targets in the Transport Sector? Günter Emberger

39

Energy-efficient Transport Planning for Hyderabad, India Tanja Schäfer, Angela Jain

59

Tehran-Karaj, Hashtgerd—Integrated Urban and Transportation Planning for GHG Emission Reduction Wulf-Holger Arndt, Norman Döge

78

Climate-protection Strategies for the Transport Sector of Gauteng Province, South Africa Jan Tomaschek, Ulrich Fahl

94

Metrasys, Sustainable Mobility for Megacities—Traffic Management and Low-carbon Transport for Hefei, China Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Xiaoxu Bei, Kain Glensor, Hanna Hüging, Miriam Müller

Outcomes 108

Mobility and Transportation Concepts for Sustainable Transportation in Future Megacities Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Angela Jain, Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek

Appendix 123

The Projects of the Programme on Future Megacities in Brief

142

Authors

144

Imprint

9

HYDERABAD: Traffic in the Old city is slow. [Zehner]

INTRODUCTION

Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek

Climate Change and Sustainable Transportation in Megacities Climate change and energy security are two of the key issues for the urban transportation sector in megacities in the twenty-first century. Cities are responsible for three-quarters of the global energy consumption, and their energy demand is driven in particular by increasing traffic generation. Car use in developing and emerging countries is growing enormously. While the trend towards urbanisation and the growth of megacities creates huge challenges, it also offers the unique opportunity to shape energy use—especially in the transport, as well in the housing and building sectors—towards a low-carbon pathway. Urban mobility is a key focus area for five of the Future Megacities projects—EnerKey Gauteng, Young Cities Tehran-Karaj, Megacity-HCMC Ho Chi Minh City, Sustainable Hyderabad, Metrasys Hefei.1 Interdisciplinary research teams developed city-specific solutions in close collaboration with stakeholders from the partner cities. This book provides a brief overview of the different transport-related challenges these five cities face, and the suggested mitigation and adaptation strategies. The challenges range from issues of data collection, modelling, and planning in a fast-growing environment, to the resistance of citizens against big infrastructure projects. The conclusions will compare and contrast the findings and provide an outlook for future developments in the megacities of tomorrow. Fig. 1

Increase of urbanisation rates in different countries [Burdett/Sudjic 2007]

12

INTRODUCTION

Fig. 2

Growth of population in agglomeration in emerging and developing countries [Arndt] 25

20

15

10

5

0

mil. inhabitans

Bombay Delhi Mexico-City São Paulo Dhaka Jakarta Lagos Calcutta Karachi Buenos Aires Cairo Shanghai Manila Gauteng Rio de Janeiro Istanbul Beijing Tianjin Lima Seoul

Lahore Tehran Bangalore Wuhan Hong Kong Hyderabad

inhabitants 2003

Kinshasa

inhabitants 2015

growth rate 2003-2015

Santa Fe de Bogota

Bangkok Baghdad Riyadh Ahmadabad Ho Chi Minh City Belo Horizonte Santiago Chittagong Poona Chongqing Surat Khartoum Kabul Bandung

growth rate

Yangon Hanoi Hefei Shenyang

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

13

Fig. 3

Development of population and car use in selected developing countries [Lakshmanan 2006]

Urban Development and Transport For the first time in human history, more people live in cities than in rural areas. The trend to urbanisation and further expansion of megacities will continue for decades to come. The number of urban dwellers is increasing around the world [Figure 1 •], even in those countries with stagnating or declining populations. Especially in emerging and developing countries, cities are growing rapidly. The countrywide population growth rates are generally decreasing; this is not the case for cities however. Figure 2 • shows the dynamic of the population growth of megacities in emerging and developing countries. Some cities have growth rates in the twelve-year period showing a 20, 30, or even 50% increase [UN-Habitat 2013].

Transport and Climate Change Striving for a more ecological development of existing cities and new urban development should be an urgent priority in the global transformation towards sustainability.2 Efficient energy production and consumption are central questions in modern societies, especially for urban agglomerations and megacities in developing and newly industrialising countries. Although cities cover only 2% of the earth’s surface and house 50% of the world population, they are responsible for 75% of global energy consumption, as well as approximately 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Future megacities therefore offer strategic approaches for efficient energy use and climate protection in all sectors of production, and especially in the field of transport. Approximately 20 to 35% of GHG emissions are emitted in transport processes. In residential areas, transport is the major cause of GHG emissions, with a share of around 50%. Several societal trends lead to more traffic. Besides the growth of population and urbanisation, car-oriented settlement structures, income growth, and new production methods, as well as distance intensive trading relations, are key drivers for transport demand. As Figure 3 • shows, population growth and car use have a progressive correlation. Population growth leads to a larger urban population because of urbanisation trends in developing countries. But the growth of motorisation (motor vehicle fleet) and car use is much higher. The main cause for transport demand growth is the interrelation between the transport system and the long-term adaptation of settlement structures as shown in Figure 4 •.

14

INTRODUCTION

Fig. 4

Interrelation between transport and spatial structure development [Arndt 2011, 120]

The transport system influences the spatial accessibility. The capacities and velocity of transportation systems were expanded to solve short-term traffic problems, but in the long run this leads to a distance intensive spatial accessibility. The high average traffic speed of the transport system enables longer travel distances in during the same time period. More­ over, the time spent in traffic is relatively constant. Figure 5 • shows the travel time budget in several cities. The range is between 0.85 and 1.7 hours. The differences are based on settlement or cultural (behavioural) conditions. Many studies recorded that the travel time budget is constantly in the same area [see, for example Mokhtarian/Chen 2003]. An infrastructure provision focused approach to urban development supports the development of mono-structural land use, which separates functions like living, working, and shopping and is characterised by low population density. The increase of velocity is realised in particular by the use of individual cars. A car is able to increase the average travel speed. Therefore, the user is able to travel further in the same time with a car than with other means of transport. In addition, a transportation system with high system speed goes along with high consumption of resources such as material, energy, or land use. The expansion of the transportation system, in particular of road networks, improves the traffic performance in the short term just as much as it leads to an increase of resource consumption and traffic impacts such as GHG emissions in the long run. This effect will be accelerated based on the disproportionately high CO2 emission of cars, as Figure 7 • shows in the example for China. Cars have the highest specific carbon emission per mile and person, compared with electric bicycles, bicycles, motorcycles, and buses. Apart from the high demand for cars and the ecological impacts of car traffic, there is a lack of efficient road networks and often low standards of public transport services in cities in emerging and developing countries. The low quality of road surfaces is also problem for suitable public transport, and rail-bound public transport services are generally not very well developed.

15

Fig. 5

Travel time budget in different cities [Schafer/Victor 2000]

Fig. 6

Increase of travel distance and modal split (example for the United Kingdom) [Arndt, data source: Department for Transport, div. years] 8000 7000

Miles

6000 5000

Walk

4000

Other private modes Public transport

3000

Car

2000 1000 0 1975/76 1985/86 1989/91 1992/94 1997/99

Fig. 7

Transportation modes in China and specific carbon emissions (pounds per 100 miles per person, includes production; colour fill shows the low-high range of values) [missionlocal.org 2009]

16

INTRODUCTION

Mobility Planning in Megacities—An Urgent Target Overview of the Investigated Cities The mobility and transportation sector has been surveyed in urban agglomeration areas in recent decades and found to be one of the main energy consumers. Hence, transportation and mobility is a major topic in the Future Megacities Programme sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Within this programme, five megacities (Gauteng, South Africa; Tehran-Karaj, Iran; Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Hyderabad, India; Hefei, China) were investigated in order to find out how an adaptation to future climate changes can be achieved from the perspective of transportation. In these five megacities, it is recognised that urban transport will play a major role in the future. Within the Future Megacities Programme, the cross-link network Megacities Mobility (MC Mob) was established for the exchange of knowledge in transportation research in megacities, and for a comparison of different approaches for sustainable urban transport development. The case study cities examined as part of the Future Megacities projects have between five and thirteen million inhabitants. The population density for the agglomeration ranges from 614 to 9,231 inhabitants per km². In the examined cities, the rate of car ownership is still lower than the average numbers in industrial countries. Figure 9 • shows that car ownership still remains at a low level. Public transport has a relatively high share in the urban modal split in most of the investigated cities. Nevertheless, car use in these cities generates a high level of carbon emissions and air pollutants. Moreover, the demand for individual motorised transport is increasing rapidly in developing and emerging countries. But there are some remarkable differences between the investigated urban areas. Motorcycles play an important role in Ho Chi Minh City and Hyderabad. They are the main mode of motorised individual transport (MIT) in these cities. On the other hand, public transport has the highest share in the Teheran region and Gauteng. It seems to be a relation between public transport use and motorcycles. Low-income groups use motorcycles in case of insufficient public transport services. Hefei shows the lowest share of MIT (cars and motorcycles) and the highest share of biking, which is in the special tradition of Chinese cities. For a description of the investigated cities their transport challenges and solutions, see the following chapters. A collection of data indicators for all of the cities is shown in Figure 10 •.

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Fig. 8a (left) Overall population numbers (different base years 2001–2009/different spatial scale) [Arndt] Fig. 8b (right) Population density (different base years 2001–2009) [Arndt]

Fig. 9a (left) Car and motorcycle ownership (different base 2001–2009) [Arndt] Fig. 9b (right) Public transport shares/modal split (different base 2001–2009) [Arndt] 500

1000 inhabitants

400 Motorcycles 300 200 100 0

Cars

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

* Tehran and Gauteng include taxis and other paratransit services.

18

INTRODUCTION

Other Bike Pedestrians Public Transport Motorcycles Car

Fig. 10 Statistical data of the megacities agglomerations (diff. years) [Arndt] Indicator

Unit

Tehran Region

Hyderabad

Ho Chi Minh

Gauteng

Hefei

Project

Name

YoungCities

Megacity Hyderabad

Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh

EnerKey

METRASYS

City

Name

Ostan Tehran

Hyderabad

Ho Chi Minh City

Gauteng Province

Hefei

General

Base Year

2006 (Modal Split Data 2001)

2003

2008

2007

13,422,366

6,000,000

6,610,000

10,451,713

4,870,000

18,814

650

2,096

18,178

7,047

Population

Inhabitants

Area

km²

Density

Inhabitants/ km²

713

9,231

3154

575

691

Population Growth

% (Year)

2.20

3.00

3.50

1.84

2.80

19,300,000

9,600,000

11,237,000

14,300,000

7,600,000

Population 2030 Average Age

Years

GDP

USD/Inhabitant (Year)

31

27

2,740

710

2,600

9,499

4,005

4

30

3

35

30

Modal Split

19

Pedestrians

%

Bike

%

2

3

1

2

22

Public Transport

%

55

28

6

27

19

Motorcycles

%

7

31

81

1

5

Car

%

32

2

9

35

10

Other

%

6

14

Indicator

Unit

Tehran Region

Hyderabad

Ho Chi Minh

Gauteng

Hefei

Level of Motorisation Car Ownership

cars/1,000 inhabitants

Growth Car Ownership

170

30

60

% (Year)

18

177

16

Motorcycle Ownership

motorcycles/1,000 inhabitants

14

183

385

Growth Motorcycle Ownership

% (Year)

-24

141

8

Accident Index

Death/ Injured per Year

6,400/ 15,000

518/ 3,205

206

49 23

11

27

39,832

2,074

618

346

Network Indices Street

km

5,463

Express-/ Highway

km

285

Bike Lane

km

Bus

km

ExpressBus/BRT

km

LRT/Tram

km

Subway

km

Inter-/Suburban Train

km

997 419

1,840 100

0

110

122

56

0

0

0

0

0

0

47

80

Cooperation

20

Partners in Germany

Technical University of Berlin

HU Berlin, Uni Göttingen, PIK, nexus

TU Cottbus

IZT, IER, IBP

DLR-TS, WI, FU, FIRST, AS&P,LUAX

Local Partner

Ministry for Housing and Urban Development

HMDA; APSRTC, JNTU; NIT Warangal

University of Transport HCMC

CSIR, City of Johannesburg, University of Johannesburg

ASEC, MOST-Hefei (Science & Technoloy Bureau)

INTRODUCTION

Indicator

Unit

Tehran Region

Hyderabad

Ho Chi Minh

Master plan

Master plans 1993 and 2008

Master plan HUDA 2009

yes

Master plan Transport

Only as part of the 2 Master plans

Only as part of Master plan

yes

Gauteng

Hefei

Data Basis

Development Concept

21

yes

NATMAP 2005-2050, ITP 20032008 Johannesburg

yes

City Development Plan 2006

LTMS strategies ASPO studies

Statistics and Studies Paper of Uni.

Wehnert et al. 2011

China Statistical Yearbook 2011; Hefei City Region Master Plan 2011

Other Studies

Land-use plan 2004

EPTRI Study 2005

Sources

Statistical Center Iran, TUPRC 2012, Tehran Municipality ICT Organization 2011

EPTRI Study 2005, Traffic Police 2014

MVA 2010, Georget 2009, ICEM 2009, Nguyen and own estimations

References Arndt, W.-H. (2011): “Integrated Transportation Planning for Energy Reduced Traffic”. In: Schäfer, R. et al. (eds.): Accomplishments and Objectives: Young Cities Research Papers Series. Vol. 02. Berlin 2011 Burdett, R./Sudjic, D. (2007): The Endless City. Phaidon Press. London Department for Transport (div. years): National Travel Survey. http://data.gov.uk/dataset/national_travel_survey. Environment Protection Training and Research Institute (2005): Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES). Study for City of Hyderabad, India. Hyderabad Georget, J. (2009): Ho Chi Minh City—Transport modeling in a rapid growth environment—Cube Voyager Model MVA. http://www.docstoc.com/docs/71447321/Ho-Chi-Minh-City---Transport-Modelling-in-a-Rapid-Growth-Environment International Centre for Environmental Management (2009): Ho Chi Minh City Adaptation to Climate Change— Volume 2: Main Study Report (Fourth draft – Volume 2) Lakshmanan, T. R. (2006): “Sustainable urban transport in developing countries”. In: Studies in Regional Science, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 513–25 Mission Local (2009): ½ Prius, ½ Bike – Electric Bikes! www.missionlocal.org/2009/12/half-prius-half-bike-electric-bikes. 01.04.2014 Mokhtarian, P.L./Chen, C. (2004): “TTB or not TTB, that is the question: A review and analysis of the empirical literature on travel time (and money) budgets”. In: Transportation Research Part A, 38, pp. 643–75 MVA Asia Limited, SYSTRA, et al. (2010): Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Preparing the Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project. Project report. Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee (HCMC PC), Management Authority for Urban Railways (MAUR) Nguyen, A. D./Ross, W. (2008): “Sustainable Urban Transportation Development: Prioritizing Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Ho Chi Minh City”. In: Environment and Natural Resources Journal, Vol. 6, No. 2 Schafer, A./Victor, D. G. (2000): “The future mobility of the world population”. In: Transportation Research Part A, 34, pp. 171–205 Statistical Center Iran: Statistical Year Book. Div. issues Statistical Publishing House (2008): Ho Chi Minh City Statistical Yearbook 2008. Ho Chi Minh City Tehran Municipality ICT Organization (2011): Atlas of Tehran Metropolis 2011. Tehran Tehran Urban Planning and Research Center (2012): The Mind of Tehran. Tehran Traffic Police (2014): http://www.htp.gov.in/Accident.html UN-Habitat (2013): Planning and Design for Sustainable Urban Mobility—Global Report on Human Settlements 2013. Nairobi, Kenya WBGU (2011): Welt im Wandel. Gesellschaftsvertrag für eine Große Transformation. Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen (WBGU) 2011. Berlin Wehnert, T./Knoll, M./Rupp, J. (2011): Socio-Economic Framework for 2010 set of EnerKey Energy Scenarios. Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment. Berlin Notes 1 The future Megacities programme was led by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), which funded nine research projects from 2000 to 2013. More information available at: http://future-megacities.org 2 Compare WBGU 2011

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INTRODUCTION

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY IN FIVE MEGACITIES

HO CHI MINH CITY: Traffic in the Old City [Zehner]

Günter Emberger

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam— Can HCMC Reach its CO2 Targets in the Transport Sector? Challenges Coping with Growth Similar to other emerging megacities in South East Asia, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is undergoing a process of rapid urbanisation, accompanied by dramatic land-use changes in the surrounding rural areas. HCMC is characterised by urban structures of both planned and informal expansions of the urban morphology, which are both degrading valuable natural areas in the hinterland, and are increasing the vulnerability of these areas to climate-related environmental changes or hazards. As a densely built-up urban area in a flat low-lying region, HCMC is historically a region that is sensitive to climatic effects. Due to its geographic location on the banks of the Saigon River, this flood-prone metropolitan area will always be subjected to natural risks. In 2008, Ho Chi Minh City officially had approximately 6.6 million inhabitants. In 2011, this number grew to 8 million inhabitants with unofficial estimations of between 10 to 13 million people. The annual growth in population is about 3.5% per year. The city area comprises about 2,095 km² and the GDP was around 2,600 US dollars per capita in 2007. The results shown here were derived within the “Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh—Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Climate Change”. The project is part of the research programme entitled “Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow—Energy and Climate Efficient Structures in Urban Growth Centres”, initiated by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The project is coordinated by the University of Technology Cottbus, and nine universities and research institutions from Germany and Austria are involved. This chapter only reports the findings of the “Work Package 5 (WP5)—Urban Transport”. The objective of WP5 was to quantify and assess the impacts of the policy strategies laid out in the Ho Chi Minh City Transport Master Plan (HCMC TPM) [JICA/MOT et al. 2004]. A comprehensive documentation of all research carried out in the MC HCMC project can be found on the project homepage: http://www.megacity-hcmc.org/ Actors and Institutional Settings—Decision-making in HCMC Coupled with the dynamic growth of transport demand in HCMC, urban flooding—caused either by heavy rainfall events or through climate-induced sea level rises—also poses a very pressing challenge for the land-use and transport system. Thus, urban flooding also has to be taken into consideration while developing adaptation strategies for the future.

25

HO CHI MINH CITY

The HCMC authorities are aware of these challenges and have therefore developed a Transport Master Plan [JICA/MOT et al. 2004] and a set of strategy documents [Ministry of Transport 2006], which are supported by a series of transport-related studies [Nguyen Anh Dung/Ross 2008; Georget 2009]. In every country, the decision-making process is structured differently and therefore different institutions are involved. In the case of HCMC, the following institutions are involved in transport-related policy and decisions-making: · HCMC peoples’ Committee, · Department of Transportation (DOT), · Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD), · Department of Architecture Planning (DAP), · Institute of Urban Planning (IUP) under DAP, · Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DONRE), · Department of Construction (DOC), · Department of Planning and Investment (DPI), · Institute of Economic Research (IER). The precise role and set of responsibilities, as well as the processes of how these institutions work together towards a common strategy for the future of HCMC is, at present, not completely clear to the author. It seems that a lack of coordination between the institutions exists; there is no clear definition of the competences between the involved institutions, and there is also a lack of integration and coherence of the specific objectives of the involved institutions. It is therefore recommended that, in the future, more effort be taken in gaining a better understanding of how this broad range of institutions function together. Furthermore, an additional step would be to optimise their collaboration towards an efficient, goal-oriented decision and implementation process. Existing Plans for Transportation in HCMC Transport is a major issue in HCMC: congested roads, noise and air pollution, and extreme growth in car ownership—cars and motor scooters—indicate some of the challenges that HCMC faces. At present, the subdivision for transport-mode is 3−5% pedestrians, 1−3% cycling, around 6% public transport, 9−11% private cars, whilst the remaining more than 80% is based on motor scooters. In 2008, the motorisation rate was 60 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, with a growth rate of 16% per annum. Motorcycle ownership is about 390 motor scooters per 1,000 inhabitants with a growth rate of 8% per year. These internationally high growth rates (Europe ~1% to 2% p.a., US ~1% p.a., India and China ~7% to 8% p.a.1) in motorisation combined with low infrastructure provision will lead to increasing congestion levels, and a corresponding deterioration of the quality of life in HCMC. The severely underfinanced public transport system, which presently accounts for only one-tenth of all journeys, is based on buses. Furthermore, the bus fleet lacks modern, up-to-date vehicles. Neither are there any dedicated traffic measures to speed up the bus journey times—such as priority lines, prioritisation at traffic lights, et cetera. Private transport is based on motor scooters, because scooters are flexible, fast, and affordable. Parking is permitted nearly everywhere in the city and is relatively inexpensive. Since the overall speed of motor scooters is between 15 and 20 km/h, a rather unusual kind of traffic flow results, giving newcomers the feeling that the whole road network is in steady motion with hardly any rules. Nowadays, the increasing rate

26

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

of private car ownership seems to have disturbed the flow of scooters, thus making traffic rules and their enforcement ever more necessary to ensure movement in the chaotic mix of scooter and car traffic in HCMC. To mitigate current and future transport problems, the City Authority of HCMC started a series of initiatives and produced several political documents on how to tackle the future development of HCMC. One transport-relevant document is the Transport Master Plan (TPM) developed in 2004 [JICA/MOT et al. 2004]. The HCMC TPM comprises seven objectives, thirty-five strategies, and 105 actions to overcome HCMC’s transport problems. To give the reader an idea regarding the content of the HCMC TPM, a short summary regarding the vision, the objectives, and the strategies are presented, taken from the original HCMC TPM [ibid.]. The overarching vision of the TPM is the following: “Ensure mobility and accessibility to needed urban services for its people and society, through public transport-based urban transport system with safety, amenity and equity” [ibid.]. To achieve this vision, the following seven goals and thirty-five strategies for the attainment of the different objectives are were specified: A. Promotion of social understanding on present and future urban transport A1. Conduct of consecutive transport campaigns A2. Expansion of transport education A3. Strengthening of transport studies A4. Implementation of policy test projects A5. Disclosure of information B. Management of sustainable urban growth and development B1. Policy coordination within metropolitan area B2. Integration of City M/P and Transport M/P B3. Development of systematic road network B4. Promotion of integrated development of urban and transport plan B5. Guidance for ideal urban development C. Promotion and development of appealing public transport C1. Development of mass transit system C2. Development of bus transport system C3. Exploitation of paratransit and non-motorised vehicles C4. Exploitation of the water transport system C5. Promotion of public transport-use and expansion of services D. Effective management of traffic and demand D1. Establishment of a management system for motorised vehicles D2. Strengthening of traffic regulation and management D3. Effective response to freight transport D4. Establishment of a parking policy D5. Introduction of TDM (traffic demand management) E. Comprehensive development of transport areas and environment E1. Management of transport roads E2. Improvement of transport environment for pedestrian and bicycle users E3. Redistribution of transport areas and improvement of the traffic environment in the city centre E4. Alleviation of air pollution E5. Establishment of district transport development strategy

27

HO CHI MINH CITY

F. Enhancement of traffic safety F1. Establishment of a traffic safety audit system F2. Elimination of traffic accident black spots F3. Improvement of a licensing and vehicle inspection system F4. Strengthening of the traffic enforcement system F5. Strengthening of the first-aid system G. Strengthening of transport the sector administration and management capacity G1. Reform of transport-related organisations G2. Promotion of private sector participation G3. Improvement of the infrastructure development and management system G4. Strengthening of planning capacity G5. Securing of a development fund As mentioned above, the 105 actions to overcome the HCMC’s transport challenges comprise a series of “soft instruments”, such as awareness-raising campaigns, use of ICT (information and communication technologies), demand management instruments, et cetera. Nevertheless, the main core of the HCMC TPM is a major extension of the existing road and highway network within, and around, HCMC. For these road infrastructure investments, concrete realisation horizons are provided and the necessary funding is earmarked. The TPM also includes a public transport improvement programme, where concepts for a subway system are presented, but there the final decisions, financing, and realisation horizons are far less certain compared with the road infrastructure extension programmes. As can be seen in Figure 1 •, the following measures are planned to be constructed by 2020 [ibid.]. Approximately 1,114 km of new road infrastructure will be built; additionally, the UMRT (urban mass rapid transit = metro system) network will be expanded to 138 km within this time period. This results in a ratio of 1 km public transport network to every 8 km of road network improvements. In financial terms, the above-mentioned transport infrastructure investments are expected to cost about 14,065 million US dollars in total [Figure 2 •]. One kilometre of road infrastructure costs, on average, about 8.33 million US dollars, whereas one kilometre UMRT is estimated to cost about 25.04 million US dollars (ratio UMRT, versus Road equal to 1:3.0). Currently (2012), only road infrastructure construction is occurring at a significant level, the construction of UMRT (underground lines) depends heavily on foreign financial backing, mainly from Japan and Spain (at present). It should be mentioned, however, that since both these countries are presently experiencing their own serious financial woes, no guarantees regarding the implementation of an UMRT System can be given.

Solutions: MARS—A Planning Tool for Traffic Simulation Objectives and Function of MARS In recent years, several studies have been carried out to support the above-mentioned Transport Master Plan development. However, it has to be mentioned that authorities in Ho Chi Minh City do not have an up-to-date and calibrated transport model available, due to time/ cost and data constraints.

28

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 1

Planned transport infrastructure (km) in HCMC [JICA/MOT et al. 2004] 2002 Roads Expressways

Increase

Primary

391

698

307

Secondary

606

1,161

555

—

45

45

Regional 

—

207

207

Urban

—

138

138

Urban 1)

UMRT

2020

1) Including outside of the study area Fig. 2

Estimated cost for transport infrastructure improvements in HCMC until the year 2020 [JICA/MOT et al. 2004] Cost US$ Million A. Ongoing/Committed Projects B. New Projects 1) Roads 2) Traffic Management 3) Public Transport 4) Transport Environment Total

%

811

5.8

•

•

9,279

66.0

160

1.1

3,455

24.5

360

2.6

14,065

100.0

Although several political documents exist, where transport-related objectives and targets were listed—for example, “Preparing the HCMC City Metro Rail System” [MVA Asia Limited/SYSTRA et al. 2010]—no formal quantification as to whether these goals could feasibly be reached were carried out based on model simulations. Therefore, it was decided within the HCMC Megacity project to set up a strategic land-use, transport-interaction model in order to be able to quantify the impacts of the above-mentioned different transport strategies that are to be implemented in the HCMC TPM. The model chosen was the dynamic land-use and transport model, Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS) developed by Vienna University of Technology [Pfaffenbichler 2003; Emberger/Ibesich 2006; Jaensirisak/Emberger et al. 2006; Mayerthaler/Haller et al. 2009; Pfaffenbichler/Emberger et al. 2010; Emberger 2012]. MARS is a dynamic land-use and

transport-integrated model. The underlying hypothesis of MARS is that settlements and activities within them are self-organising systems. MARS is based on the principles of systems dynamics [Sterman 2000] and synergies [Haken 1983]. The development of MARS began around fifteen years ago and was partly funded by a series of EU research projects. The present version of MARS is implemented in Vensim®, a System Dynamics programming environment. MARS is capable of analysing policy combinations at the city/regional level and assessing their impacts over a thirty year planning period. The MARS model consists of a transport and land-use element and can be divided into a series of sub-models as follows and as shown in Figure 3 •:

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HO CHI MINH CITY

Fig. 3

Basic structure of the MARS sub-models [Pfaffenbichler/Emberger et al. 2010]

· · · · · · · · · · · ·

Scenario input module Policy input module Transport model Commuting trips sub-model Other trips sub-model Land-use model Housing development sub-model Housing relocation sub-model Workplace development and relocation sub-model Fleet composition and emission model Evaluation and assessment module Output representation modules (AniMap, Vensim graphs, Venapp)

The aim was to make the MARS model quick and easy to use, as well as user-friendly for decision-makers. MARS was therefore built using the System Dynamics approach and the model was based on free-flow bubble diagrams and evidence from the TU in Austria. The model is now being utilised in many EU research projects, and models have been developed for eighteen2 cities around the world and a single country, namely Austria. During the HCMC Megacity project, MARS was adapted to HCMC circumstances in collaboration with colleagues from the HCMC University of Transport, and was set up and calibrated for the base year 2008.

30

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Data Needs for Transport Modelling In order to be able to set up a complex land-use transport-interaction model like MARS, a series of input data is needed. This input data can be categorised into three separate groups: 1. Indicators to describe HCMC regarding its socio-demographic and socio-economic status quo and future development 2. Indicators to describe the existing transport infrastructure and spatial land use within HCMC 3. Indicators regarding the present mobility behaviour of HCMC citizens to calibrate MARS a) Socio-demographic and socio-economic data This set of indicators comprises the number of people living in a certain zone—in our case, we subdivided HCMC into twenty-four zones—the number of jobs for different sectors (industrial/service) in a zone, the average household size and income per zone, the average rental cost for housing, the car and scooter ownership rate, et cetera. Additionally, we estimated the corresponding growth rates—including the population growth, car ownership growth, scooter increase. These data were obtained from available official statistics. b) Transport system and land-use-related data Here we collected information regarding the average link capacity for trips between the different zones, subdivided into different means of transport (walking, cycling, scooter, car, public transport), the corresponding cost for the use of each means of transport, availability of parking and parking costs for each zone, public transport frequency between zones, ticket fares, and so forth. On the other hand, we derived the availability of vacant land to be converted into housing or commercial areas, to enable the simulation of the future development in HCMC in proportion to the growing population. These data were also sourced from official available statistics. c) Indicators to describe the present transport behaviour of HCMC citizens These data comprise the modal split figures of HCMC, the average travel speeds between different zones for the different means of transport, average car, and scooter occupancy, as well as other information. The main sources for this kind of information were existing studies and the collection of our own data through exercises. In general, it has to be noted that the data availability as well as the data accuracy and veracity is not at all satisfactory. For many of the necessary input parameters, educated guesses have been made to set up the MARS model. One important recommendation for HCMC authorities derived from this MARS modelling exercise is that for transport modelling and future transport planning, adequate data collection procedures should be implemented. This problem is not HCMC-specific, in Europe— especially in many Eastern European countries—the lack of data is also one of the most critical obstacles for transport and land-use planning processes. MARS HCMC: Modelling Exercise and Results In a subsequent step, the transport strategies—i.e., combination of individual transport policies—listed in the TPM HCMC was implemented into MARS and their impacts simulated for the next three-decade time period. These simulation results were then assessed, on the one

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HO CHI MINH CITY

Fig. 4

Screenshot of AniMap—Dynamic GIS presentation of residents, workplaces, modal split [Emberger 2012]

hand, against preserving the status quo and, on the other hand, against the targets listed in the TPM HCMC as well as other documents. The comparison included the indicators CO2 emissions, transport mode-split, distance travelled, et cetera. Additionally, MARS delivered dynamic GIS maps, where the developments of population, household location, workplaces distribution, et cetera, were shown for the three-decade simulation period. One of the intentions within the HCMC Megacity Project was to evaluate if the proposed objectives regarding the split of transport modes—modal-split share of public transport of 22 to 26% during the time 2010 to 2015 and 47 to 50% by the year 2020, as stated in “Preparing the HCMC City Metro Rail System” [MVA Asia Limited/SYSTRA et al. 2010]—could be reached with the suggested policy instruments listed in the HCMC TPM. In detail, within the HCMC Megacity Project, the following six scenarios were simulated to determine whether or not the transport objectives regarding modal split and CO2 could be reached with the measures suggested in the TPM (based on Figure 1 • and Figure 2 •). The scenarios were as follows: 1. “Business-as-usual” base run 2. TPM HCMC scenario Policy rail—2015 3. TPM HCMC scenario Policy rail—2015+parking fees 4. TPM HCMC scenario Policy rail—2015+ppl3 reduction -20% 5. TPM HCMC scenario Policy rail—2015+ppl reduction -40% 6. TPM HCMC scenario Policy rail—2015+BRT inner districts

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CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

1. Business-as-usual scenario (BAU) In this scenario, which forms the base run scenario, all the growth rates for population growth, car-ownership growth, scooter-ownership growth, work place development, et cetera, were fed into MARS and the model was calibrated to existing modal split figures, journey distances, and travel speeds. The results of this scenario can be interpreted in a way that it represents the development over time in HCMC in the scenario where no major transport policy instruments/improvements would be implemented in the next three decades. 2. Policy rail—2015 Using this scenario, we intended to simulate the impacts of implementing a rail-friendly policy strategy. We assumed that by 2015, the Transport Master Plan (TPM) [JICA/MOT et al. 2004] and measures in the report “Preparing the Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project” [MVA Asia Limited/SYSTRA et al. 2010] will have been fully implemented. With this scenario, we test if the modal-share distribution of 25% in the year 2010, and 50% in the year 2020, public transport could be reached as assumed in these documents [ibid.]. 3. Policy rail—2015+ parking fees As it might be expected, the sole implementation of a major improvement of a rail-based public transport system in HCMC is not sufficient to reach the very ambitious goals of 50% public transport use by 2020 in HCMC. Therefore, we decided to simulate a scenario where we additionally test the above-mentioned rail-friendly scenario, a policy where we introduce a 100% parking-fee increase for short-term and long-term parking in the inner districts (1–12). 4. Policy rail—2015+ ppl reduction of 20% In this scenario, we test the effects of implementation of the public transport rail-network in combination with a reduction of parking places by 20%. 5. Policy rail—2015+ ppl reduction of 40% In this scenario, we further decrease the parking place supply by 40%. 6. Policy rail—2015+ BRT inner districts In this scenario, we tested the effects of a BRT (Bus Rapid Transport System) system in the inner districts in combination with the implementation of a rail-based public transport system. This scenario can be interpreted as the maximum possible public transport scenario in HCMC. Figure 5 • shows the results of the modal-split data for all tested scenarios for the years 2007, 2015, and at the end of the simulation time for the year 2025. The first six bars in Figure 5 • show the modal-split distribution for the base year 2007. Since all scenarios start with the same assumptions, no differences occur. The first bar (2015, BAU) in the second series of bars shows the development of the modal split in the “business-as-usual” scenario (2015, BAU). As can be seen, the mode share for bicycles will increase (compared to bar 1/block of bars 1). The reason for this is that as the increase of motorised transport demand caused by population growth and the increase in motorisation levels, the travel speed for motorised transport will decrease significantly; whereas for bicycles, the travel speed will remain constant (model assumption), and therefore cyclists

33

HO CHI MINH CITY

gain relative travel speed advantages compared to users of motorised transport. This results in higher mode shares for cycling. In all other scenarios depicted in the second series of bars, the rail system is assumed to be available, and this results in a significant shift from scooter users to the public transport system. Noteworthy is the increase of car use in all scenarios—the share increases from 1.2% in 2008 to nearly 3% by 2015. The last series (block 3) of bars shows the simulation results for the year 2025. In the BAU scenario, the modal of public transport users is around 7%, only 2% higher than in 2008. More than 64% of all trips are still made with scooters (78% in the year 2008), and the proportion of car ownership is around 5.1%, which remains very low compared to other countries and cities, but is nevertheless nearly five times higher than in 2008. Interestingly, although all metro and rail lines are in full operation and no road capacity increase was implemented, the modal-split share of public transport (bus and rail together) is in the best-case scenario around 24.5% (18% rail and 6.5% bus in the Policy_rail_2015+ppl_red.-40% scenario). Furthermore, what is remarkable is that the scenario with the toughest restrictions for car use (40% park place reduction) is still not robust enough to reach the TPM and “Preparing the Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail Report” mode shares mentioned previously of 47−50% for public transport. One has to bear in mind that in the tested scenarios no road-capacity increase was implemented, thus it seems very unlikely that HCMC can meet its objectives regarding modal-split shares of public transport. Figure 6 • shows the system-wide CO2 emission development of the tested scenarios. As it can be seen in the BAU scenario, the CO2 emissions in HCMC will increase by about 30% compared to today’s level. From the viewpoint of CO2 emissions savings, the car restrictive scenario “Policy_Rail_2015_+ppl_red.-40%” delivers the best result. In this scenario, the total CO2 emissions can be kept at today’s level. Compared to the BAU scenario, however, the other tested scenarios are also very effective in keeping the CO2 emissions at an acceptable level. A detailed description of these simulations results can be found in the working paper entitled “AF 1 WP 5 Urban Transport, MARS modelling exercise HCMC—Report on simulated policy scenarios for HCMCM” [Emberger 2012]. In brief, the simulations showed that HCMC is in no position to reach its self-defined objectives listed in its policy documents by implementing the policy-measures as defined in the scenarios. The growth rates in population, the increase in household income, the related increase in car and scooter motorisation, the car-friendly environment—for instance, tax reductions for car purchases—and the resulting urban sprawl will only exacerbate the transport problems of HCMC in the future. The outdated, conventional approach of increasing transport infrastructure capacity through the construction of highways and ring roads as a first step, and the improvement of public transport facilities as a second step, has not—as can be observed in many cities around the world—ever led to an environmentally-friendly, efficient, and sustainable transport system. As the simulations have shown, there will be no exception to this rule in the case of HCMC.

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CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 5

Modal-split distribution—all years 2007, 2025 [Emberger 2012] 2015, 2025 Modal Splitscenarios Distribution - All2015, Scenarios Years 2008, 1

moto

0,9

Modal Split Modal Split

0,8

car

0,7

pt rail

0,6

pt bus

0,5

0,4

bicycle

0,3

pedestrian

0,2 0,1

0

Fig. 6

Car and scooter CO2 emissions in % (BAU_2008 =100%) [Emberger 2012]

Car + Moto CO2 Emissions in % (BAU_2008 = 100%)

140,0% 120,0% 100,0% 80,0% 127,8%

60,0% 100,0%

109,3%

109,3%

102,6%

100,0%

104,4%

40,0% 20,0% 0,0%

car+moto CO2 %

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HO CHI MINH CITY

Outlook Transport planning and the development of transport policies is a long-term exercise a city, region or country has to carry out within its other duties, including infrastructure provision (gas, power, water, wastewater, et cetera), education policy, health policy, safety and security policy, economic policy, social policy. During the lifetime of this Megacity project, we contacted all of the relevant transport planning and transport implementing institutions in HCMC, such as the Ministry of Transport, Transport Development and Strategy Institute, Transport Environment & Development Centre (TEDEC), the University of Transport Ho Chi Minh City (HCMUT), and many others. By organising a series of workshops and conferences in close collaboration with our Vietnamese partners, a mutual knowledge transfer was initiated. The issues of sustainability, forecast methods, climate change, and adaptation and mitigation strategies were discussed and potential strategies for HCMC were reviewed. Furthermore, the underlying concepts of the combined strategic land use and transport model MARS were explained and a MARS model was set up and calibrated to HCMC circumstances. Staff at the HCMUT were trained to apply MARS to quantify the potential impacts of several transport strategies and the results were shown to and discussed with local authorities. We see this as a first step towards capacity building in the transport planning sector at the academic level. It should be mentioned that keeping collaborations alive during the lifetime of a project is an easy task. Without external funds, such intensive collaborations cannot be viable in the long run, especially in academia. To sum up, this Megacity project in HCMC raised a series of (open) issues: · The transport strategy, currently applied by the authorities of HCMC, is based on ideas developed in the so-called developed world. It is mainly car oriented, to solve problems related to car ownership growth and to mitigate resulting road congestion problems. Strategies for active modes—such as walking and cycling—are completely missing. · The decision and implementation processes presently installed to mitigate the negative impacts caused by the current transport system are not innovative enough to consider future appearing challenges, such as climate change, peak oil (post fossil mobility), and sustainability. · There seems to be a lack of knowledge and human capacity at all levels of local government and in the existing education system. Staff, presently working at the different authorities, are educated in a “traditional” demand-oriented planning philosophy. Sustainability is not an issue at all, energy and resource scarceness is not taken into consideration—this can be seen very clearly when analysing and assessing the actual transport master plan of HCMC. · Hence, there is a lack in applying modern, state-of-the-art tools to forecast future transport demand, which could support the development of suitable transport policies. In HCMC, there are not enough well-trained staff to set up, use, and interpret the results of such tools (transport models, MARS model, et cetera). To make matters worse, there is also a lack of adequate data sources to set up and calibrate these kind of tools, which would enable the calculation of serious, meaningful, and reliable results. To overcome some of these issues, the following suggestions are recommended: · The number of transport planners and traffic engineers with a background in the concepts of climate change, climate change adaption and mitigation, and sustainability has to be

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CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

increased. This is a mid- to long-term activity, which will deliver positive impacts within five to ten years. · The existing decision-making process should be checked against the more formalised process of decision-making presented in the Decision Makers Guidebook (DMG), which was developed within SPARKLE project [SPARKLE 2004–2006; May/Karlstrom et al. 2005] and adapted accordingly. To be more specific, such a process should encompass at least the activities of objective formulation, problem identification and assessment, identification of potential instruments, predicting of impacts, comparison of alternatives, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. A detailed description of how such an optimised decision-making process could be implemented can be found at the DMG-Website (http:// www.ivv.tuwien.ac.at/fileadmin/mediapool-verkehrsplanung/Diverse/Forschung/International/PROSPECTS/DMG_English_Version_2005.pdf.) References Emberger, G. (2012): Internal Report—Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh, Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework Adaptation to Global Climate Change: AF 1 WP 5 Urban Transport—MARS modelling exercise HCMC Institute of Transportation—Center for Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering. University of Technology Vienna Emberger, G./Ibesich, N. (2006): “MARS in Asia—How a model can help and influence decision makers”. In: CORP 2005, 11th International Conference on Urban Planning & Regional Development in the Information Society Georget, J. (2009): Ho Chi Minh City—Transport modeling in a rapid growth environment: Cube Voyager Model MVA. Haken, H. (1983): Advanced Synergetics—Instability Hierarchies of Self-Organizing Systems and Devices. Berlin, New York Jaensirisak, S./Emberger, G. et al. (2006): Application of the Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS). Model in Decision Making Process for Sustainable Development. Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development Conference—TISD, Khon Kean, Thailand JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency)/MOT (Ministry of Transport) et al. (2004): The Study on Urban Transport Master Plan and Feasibility Study in Ho Chi Minh Metropolitan Area (HOUTRANS). Ho Chi Minh City May, A. D./Karlstrom, A. et al. (2005): Developing Sustainable Urban Land Use and Transport Strategies—A Decision Makers' Guidebook. Leeds Mayerthaler, A./Haller, R. et al. (2009): Modelling land-use and transport at a national scale—The MARS Austria model. 49th European Congress of the Regional Science Assosiation International—Territorial Cohesion of Europe and Integrative Planning. Lodz/PL Ministry of Transport, S. R. o. V. M. (2006). Transport Strategy - Transition, Reform and Sustainable Management. MVA Asia Limited/SYSTRA et al. (2010): Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Preparing the Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project. Ho Chi Minh City Nguyen Anh Dung/Ross, W. (2008): “Sustainable Urban Transportation Development: Prioritizing Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Ho Chi Minh City”. In: Environment and Natural Resources Journal, Vol. 6, No. 2 Pfaffenbichler, P. (2003): The strategic, dynamic and integrated urban land use and transport model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator)—Development, testing and application. Institute for Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering. Vienna Pfaffenbichler, P./Emberger, G. et al. (2010): “A system dynamics approach to land use transport interaction modelling: The strategic model MARS and its application”. In: System Dynamics Review, 26(3) SPARKLE (2004–2006): Sustainability Planning for Asian Cities making use of Research, Know-How and Lessons from Europe. http://www.ivv.tuwien.ac.at/forschung/projekte/international-projects/sparkle-2004.html Sterman, J. D. (2000): Business Dynamics—Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill Higher Education Notes 1 For more information, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle 2 Gateshead, Leeds, Edinburgh (GBR), Oslo, Trondheim (NOR), Helsinki (FIN), Vienna, Salzburg, Eisenstadt, Austria (AUT), Madrid (ESP), Stockholm (SWE), Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi (VIN), Chiang Mai (THA), Ubon Ratchantani (THA), Washington DC (US), Porto Alegre (BRA), Bari (ITA) 3 ppl = abbreviation for parking place

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HYDERABAD: Even big roads of the city are often used by different modes of traffic. [Zehner]

Tanja Schäfer, Angela Jain

Energy-efficient Transport Planning for Hyderabad, India Challenges: Planning in a Fast-changing Environment An Economically Booming Indian Megacity Hyderabad is the capital of the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. It has a population of approximately 6.8 million [Census 2011] and a spatial expansion of 650 km². It is thus the fourth most populous city in India. As the city is simultaneously the economic centre of Andhra Pradesh, it is attractive for migrants and is therefore also rapidly and almost uncontrollably growing and absorbing the surrounding municipalities, foremost rural areas. Forecasts predict that Hyderabad will reach a population of 10.5 million by 2015. Economic growth—driven, in part, by having the highest number of Special Economic Zones1 of all Indian cities—is enabling higher living standards and modern lifestyles for the rapidly emerging middle class. This is resulting in escalating energy and resource consumption and degradation, which is also due to changes in the transport sector. In terms of climate, Hyderabad is already characterised by weather extremes: flooding in the monsoon season and severe droughts at other times. For the future, it is predicted that climate change will lead to even more extreme events, like disastrous floods and extreme droughts. Due to its location in a semi-arid area with few natural water resources but high consumption, this will lead to significantly increasing water scarcity. The research results for the city of Hyderabad described in this chapter were gained from the research project “Sustainable Hyderabad, Work Package Sustainable Transport Planning for Hyderabad” led by the PTV Group. As with the other endeavours in this series, this project is part of the Future Megacities Programme, initiated and funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The project was coordinated by the Division of Resource Economics at Humboldt University of Berlin. Besides the PTV Group and nexus, four other German universities or research institutions were involved. Fig. 1

Street scenes in Hyderabad [nexus Institute Berlin]

39

HYDERABAD

More information on the overall project approach and partners can be found on the project homepage: http://www.sustainable-hyderabad.de/. Downloads of mentioned case studies are provided at the following links http://hyderabad.nexusinstitut.de and http://www.conceptsandsolutions.ptvgroup.com/de/referenzen/ Distribution of Responsibilities for Implementation: Actors and Institutional Setting In Hyderabad, numerous administrative bodies are in charge of planning, provision, operation, and maintenance of the transport infrastructure. The most important decisions are not taken by the Mayor, but rather by the Metropolitan Commissioner who has the most executive powers and who is appointed by the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. Hence, the state has great influence on the development of the city. On the state level, the ministries responsible for transport issues—not only in the state but also in the cities—are as follows [Figure 2 •]: · The Transport, Roads and Buildings Department, which mainly deals with the construction and maintenance of roads, bridges, causeways, and national highways. The agency is an institution at the state level, but has a vital role to play in the Hyderabad Metropolitan Transportation System, because many national and state highways pass through the city, intersecting roads owned by either the Municipal Corporation of Hyderabad or other local municipal bodies. · The Department of Municipal Administration and Urban Development, which handles planning and development in urban and rural areas. · The activities of these two ministries, and their subordinated administrative bodies, are not very well coordinated, with the result that planning of road transport and urban planning are not well co-ordinated. On the city level [Figure 2 •], there are two organisations that are responsible for urban development: firstly, the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) and secondly, the Hyderabad Metropolitan Development Authority (HMDA). HMDA was set up for the purposes of planning, co-ordination, supervising, promoting, and securing the planned development of the Hyderabad Metropolitan Region. Additionally, it is the agency that executes major infrastructure projects in the Hyderabad Metropolitan Region, for instance, an outer ring road and radial roads. It is also responsible for the preparation of the master plan for the Hyderabad Metropolitan Region, as well as the coordination of the Comprehensive Transport Study, which is currently under way in Hyderabad. GHMC is generally in charge of civic requirements, infrastructure, and the maintenance thereof. Once again, responsibilities between these two bodies are not clearly defined, for example, the planning and maintenance of sidewalks. The Andhra Pradesh State Road Transport Corporation (APSRTC) is currently the main public transport provider in Hyderabad. The APSRTC runs nearly 3,000 buses in the city region and caters for approximately three million passenger trips per day. In addition, there is a suburban train service, called the Multi-Modal Transit System (MMTS). The system is run by the Ministry of Railways under the auspices of the Government of India. It is mainly run on its own regional railway network, which extends through the city. The service began in 2003 with the joint partnership of the Railways and the Government of AP, of which the latter carried two-thirds of the cost. To provide local mass transport, a metro service is in the planning process (MRTS). This process was started years ago, in 2008. The first construction works, however, only started in 2012 due to political disputes and financial problems of private in-

40

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 2

Traffic and Transport Actors in Hyderabad Stakeholder map for urban transport planning in Hyderabad [nexus Institute Berlin]

State level

AP Department for Transport Roads & Buildings Transport Department (licenses, fees, taxes, …)

APSRTC (public bus transport)

AP Department for Municipal Administration and Urban Development HMR (Hyd. Metro Rail)

Roads & Buildings Department (construction, maintenance)

City level

Traffic Police (regulation)  

HMDA (planning, coordination, supervision)  

GHMC (construction, maintenance)

UMTA & UMTA SubCommitee

Citizen level

Right to Walk Foundation

Citizens for a Better Public Transport Hyderabad

Residents‘ associations

Business level

Planning consultancies

Private companies (PPPs e.g., for Metro or Airport)

Lobby groups

vestors. The state-owned Hyderabad Metro Rail Enterprise was founded for the management of one of the largest PPP projects worldwide. Operating on an urban level, the traffic police falls under the Home Ministry of the state government of Andhra Pradesh. The police force is—amongst many other tasks and duties—responsible for traffic education and the enforcement of traffic rules. Unfortunately, the force suffers from inadequate manpower and a lack of modern equipment. A number of Home Guards, personnel employed on a daily-wage basis, assist the traffic police in the day-to-day management of the traffic. Consequently, in 2010, the Andhra Pradesh Police Department recommended the establishment of a Bureau of Road Safety and Traffic Planning, as they recognised the need for more attention and more coordination in the traffic sector [AP State Police 2011]. It is obvious that the questions related to traffic—both motorised and non-motorised—and public transportation in Hyderabad are handled by several departments with minimal professional staff, and there was formerly no single agency responsible for overseeing the entire gamut of issues. The absence of a single authority with the responsibility for planning and managing transportation, and a lack of coordination between different stakeholders—ministries as well as service providers—has thus far resulted in a highly mismanaged transport system. Pedestrians and cyclists, in particular, have to bear the brunt of the chaotic situation. To improve this situation, the Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA) was constituted in 2009 in order to coordinate issues related to traffic and transportation in the Hyderabad Metropolitan Region. Its function is to supervise the implementation of traffic and transportation measures undertaken by various agencies, in order to ensure that effective public transport systems are in place. This includes the integration of public transport services—for example, by combined ticketing and feeder services. Additionally, it oversees the Comprehensive Transport Study, which was initiated by requirements from the National Urban Transport Policy, but is actually coordinated by HMDA (see above) because UMTA is an executive body with no employed staff [see details on National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP) in the following chapter].

41

HYDERABAD

From the citizens’ point of view [Figure 2, “Citizen level”•], the neglect of public transport—as well as the needs of pedestrians, cyclists, and street vendors—reveals the persisting inequity in the development and provision of urban and transport infrastructure. Investments in urban mobility—flyovers, parking lots, wider roads, narrower pavements, et cetera—are mainly focused on easing the (motorised) mobility of the urban middle classes. There are no opportunities for citizens to participate in planning or investment decisions concerning the city: firstly, as there are no legal forms of citizens’ involvement; and, secondly, as the Metropolitan Commissioner cannot be outvoted by them. This leads, for example, to growing protests against the metro. Citizens insist on safeguarding traders and old heritage markets; work on constructing corridor two has been delayed due to the claim for realignment. Civil society movements—such as Citizens for a Better Public Transport, the Right to Walk Foundation, or Hyderabad 4 All—demand that the central concern ought to be to build a more democratic city that provides equal mobility opportunities for all its residents [EPW 2009]. According to Ramachandraiah [2010], a “streets for all” policy is part of the struggle over a more socially just and ecologically sustainable urban future, and this (global) struggle is not just about movement, but more importantly, about the politics of mobility, how cities are organised and configured, and for whom they cater [Khayesi/Monheim/Nebe 2010]. To include citizens in the early planning process is time consuming. However, to deal with protests at a later stage because citizens feel left out of the process, may take even more time in the long run. Therefore, the demands of citizens should be carefully considered and integrated in strategic planning as early as possible. Need for Mitigation of Growth of Motorised Transport Modes Like most cities in India, Hyderabad faces massive challenges in its urban transport system. Previously, it had a high share of pedestrians. This was mainly due to the fact that a large proportion of the population was too poor to afford public transport, let alone other kinds of motorised transport. Moreover, decentralised structures have made walking feasible. Recently, however, problems related to pedestrian infrastructure and a lack of safety have been mentioned fairly frequently in interviews, workshops, and online discussion forums conducted with citizens and carried out within the scope of the research project. Generally, a lack of space for pedestrians to walk freely and safely was stated. This lack of safety is reflected in accident statistics: in 2012, between January and August alone, 1,700 accidents were reported, of which 745 victims were drivers on two-wheelers, 657 pedestrians and “only” 63 car drivers. In addition, Hyderabad also used to have a high share of public transport (PT) users, due to a bus system with good coverage. But this statistic is on the decline, as is the pedestrian share. In 2003, the modal spilt was circa 30% for pedestrians, circa 3% for bicycles, circa 28% for PT, circa 31% for motorcycles, circa 2% for cars, and circa 5% for other forms of transport, like ox-carts or three-wheelers. Yet, these shares are changing rapidly as private motorised transport increases exponentially. On the one hand, this is caused by the massive urban sprawl of Hyderabad—which has resulted in increased trip lengths for most urban residents— deterioration of PT-coverage, and simultaneously, the decrease in pedestrian and bicycle traffic. The latter modes of transport are especially affected as appropriate infrastructure is missing and growing traffic volumes make walking or cycling on the roads unattractive and even dangerous. On the other hand, rapidly growing incomes and the rise of the middle class

42

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 3

Growth trend of motor vehicles in Hyderabad [HMDA 2011] Mode Buses & Pvt. Service Vehicles Auto Rikshaws Cars & Jeeps Two Wheelers Goods Vehicles Taxi Cabs Total

January 2007 15,299

March 2002

March 1993

Increase from 2002

13,817

3,836

10%

Of total vehicles for 2007 0.7%

99,105

71,069

23,874

39%

4.3%

324,347

184,715

66,793

75%

14.2%

1,738,640

1,124,508

467,225

54%

76.2%

82,534

48,292

16,473

71%

3.6%

21,434

5,531

5,333

288%

0.9%

2,281,359

1,447,932

583,534

—

100%

makes private motorised transport affordable to a growing number of Hyderabad residents: thus creating a vicious circle with respect to sustainable transport systems. Hence, in 2007, around 2.3 million motorised vehicles were registered. A study of registered vehicles reveals that Hyderabad’s vehicle fleet almost doubled between 2002 and 2007, with a high proportion of two-wheel vehicles, as shown in Figure 3 • [HMDA 2011]. In recognition of the importance of urban centres for India’s economic growth, a growing awareness of the negative effects of increasing motorised traffic on urban development by relevant ministries and planning bodies in India is being acknowledged: referring not only to Hyderabad, but to the majority of Indian cities. The main focus is on the traffic situation and the environmental quality of cities, but increasingly, also on the effects of climate change related to the transport sector, as documented in the National Action Plan for Climate Change [Government of India, undated]. The transport sector not only contributes to climate change, with approximately 20% of the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), but its functionality is also badly affected by climate change [International Transport Forum 2010]: for example, when floods, caused by extreme downfalls of rain, lead to traffic interruptions or deviations. Moreover, these interruptions and deviations cause additional GHG emissions. To rectify the negative development described in the chapter above, the Ministry of Urban Development (MoUD) launched a policy framework in 2006—the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP)—which focuses on “moving people not vehicles” [MoUD 2006]. The implementation of this policy is supported by guidelines and toolkits; an important one being the Comprehensive Mobility Plan (CMP). CMPs are regarded as key documents for providing the rationale for transport proposals in line with the NUTP. They are also considered to be a prerequisite when applying for central government funding under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM).2 Furthermore, the MoUD strongly recommends all cities to prepare CMPs [MoUD 2008]. The objective of CMPs is—consistent with the NUTP—to provide, long-term urban transport strategies, which comprise measures for a sustainable, equitable, and cost-effective improvement of people’s mobility rather than vehicle movement. Thus, the CMP emphasises integrated land-use and transport planning, public transport, and promotion of non-motorised transport. Especially for the latter, the NUTP clearly specifies that “all cities must prepare a master plan for non-motorised transport and must develop and implement plans for adequate and safe pedestrian and bicycle facilities on all arterial roads” [MoUD 2008, 12], as these modes are the most environmentally friendly.

43

HYDERABAD

Hence, social and environmental aspects—including issues of energy-efficiency and mitigation of greenhouse gases—are implicitly addressed by NUTP and CMP. In India, however, no standardised methodologies exist yet, which specifically quantify environmental impacts (energy-efficiency, air pollution, GHG emissions) ex-ante for different strategies. But taking these effects into account is of great importance when designing and choosing the most appropriate strategy for a “future-proof” and resilient transport system. Hence, the purpose of the strategic transport planning tool (STPT), which was developed within the project framework, is to fill precisely this gap. The following chapter gives a brief description of this tool.

Solutions: Planning Tools and Case Studies to Support Energyefficient Transportation Given the political framework explained above, Hyderabad started the preparation of a Comprehensive Mobility Plan, by first conducting a Comprehensive Transport Study (CTS) as the empirical basis for the CMP. Creating such a basis is necessary because at the time of the project, no current demand or supply data—not to mention a concrete transport model for the actual situation—was available for the transport planning process in Hyderabad. However, given the lack of methodologies and know-how on ex-ante analysis of environmental impacts of different transport strategies, the CMP of Hyderabad will not be able to address these issues appropriately. Thus, the objective of the project was to provide planning organisations with a tool and know-how that supports them in answering the following questions during the development-process of the CMP for Greater Hyderabad. · How can transport infrastructure be adopted most efficiently to take into account extreme climatic events, which Hyderabad will face more frequently in future (adaptation planning)? · What potentials for the reduction of energy consumption, GHG emissions, and air pollution can be expected by certain measures in the transport sector (mitigation planning)? Another objective, besides the provision of a tool, was to initiate local case studies, where planning approaches from other countries were transferred to the Indian, or more specifically, the Hyderabad context. These case studies were conducted in order to develop a better understanding of the mitigation potential of different measures in Hyderabad, and to build capacities of students and professionals on suitable mitigation measures, which are uncommon in India at present. Finally, and importantly, they were conducted to gain knowledge on their acceptance, and simultaneously encourage their acceptance by planners and local residents. To make the best use of the case studies, they focused on typical problematic transport situations of growing cities in emerging countries. These are: overloaded arterial roads and insufficient public transport services. Strategic Transport Planning Tool: Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change Impacts The tool—including the methodologies—developed by PTV and its local research partners is named the Strategic Transport Planning Tool (STPT) and consists of: · a prototypical, multimodal transport model, set up with PTV software VISUM3 and based on secondary data from Hyderabad4

44

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

· a method (partly implemented in an Excel-based assessment tool) to analyse local and mid-term adaptation requirements, as well as city-wide mitigation potentials and adaptation requirements of long-term transport strategies. In the course of the project, the existing state-of-the-art tools—VISUM transport model and assessment methodologies—were enhanced and modified to the Indian conditions and project requirements based on input from our Indian associates, literature reviews, and own empirical work. In order to facilitate the design and implementation of an appropriate adaptation strategy, the German research partner PIK5 developed an approach to downscale the regional climate-change effects to specific locations, in order to indicate which locations are likely to be flooded in extreme torrential rain. This was done with the tool called CATHY.6 The flood-prone locations that were identified in this manner were subsequently integrated into the transport model via a technical interface. To identify the most vulnerable and critical allocations for the functioning of the transport and city system, where adaptation is most acutely needed, an additional method was developed to model and assess these locations. Observations and reviews of very limited number of studies dealing with this issue thus far lead to the assumption that, in most instances, the roads are not completely blocked or flooded for an extended period, but rather for a maximum of a few hours. For most of the day, the road capacity is only reduced due to floods. In order to assess the adaptation requirement, this effect has to be modelled according to the severity of extreme rainfall events in the future, and to the specific conditions of the location. This is a challenging task given the lack of existing knowledge and the limited scientific evidence on how extreme precipitation and flooding affect the transport system, travel demand, and traffic flow—an interesting field for future research activities. Even though all of the questions related to the impacts of extreme rain events or to travel demand cannot be answered unequivocally at present, it is nonetheless beneficial for planners and decision-makers to familiarise themselves with these issues in a structured manner; particularly as the method is designed as a relative comparison. Essentially, the impact analysis compares—for instance, with respect to the adaptation planning—the traffic situation on a normal day without flooding (normal/base case) with the situation when flooding occurs and the traffic situation on the affected roads is disrupted (analysis case). For both cases, different calibrated transport models have to be set up in order to reflect the different situations and derive the data input for the impact analysis. The advantage of a relative comparison is that even when effects are difficult to distinguish in their absolute quantity, the relative difference between the “base” and “analysis case” can still be evaluated. One special feature of the developed approach is that after modelling of the effects, emission calculations (GHG and others) are carried out in VISUM directly with the newly embedded Module“ HBEFA”, which is based on the latest version of the European Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport [Keller et al. 2010]. Whereby, some parameters of the module, like the fleet-mix, had to be adapted for Indian conditions. The advantage of this integrated approach is that effects of flooding—like deteriorating traffic flows or changes in levels of services (LOS)—can be considered more accurately and with greater ease than in methods currently used. Thus far, emission modelling is based on transport model output, but is undertaken externally to the transport model. This results in a great deal of data exchange between the transport model and the emission model, and such processes are usually iterative, and thus complex.

45

HYDERABAD

Fig. 4

Impact assessment: Overview of indicators per application case [PTV Group]

Fig.  4            Impact  assessment:  Overview  of  indicators  per  applica9on  case  [PTV  Group]   Adaptation Planning

Mitigation Planning

Indicators KO-Indikator   •   Cut-off Crucial Civic Infrastructure

Non-monetisable Indicators

  •   Affected Sensitive Areas •  Affected Shops, Offices •  Affected Street Vendors •  Affected Pedestrians and Cyclists

KO-Indikator   •   Fuel or Energy Consumption •  Greenhouse Gas Emissions •  Air Pollutant NOx •  Air Pollutant PM 10 •  Vehicle Operation Costs •  Travel Time

Synthesis Method NONE

WBA

BA/BCA

Although this chapter highlights the special application case of adaptation planning, because it has special requirements, the tool is simultaneously suited for ex-ante analysis of the energy efficiency of long-term transport strategies, by the chosen set of indicators. Thus, it is able to contribute valuable information to the planning process on how to design a climate-friendly transport system (mitigation planning). For a detailed description of the approach and the chosen indicators, see the manual How to identify mitigation potentials and adaptation requirements of transport systems [Schäfer 2013]. The manual is accompanied by an Excel tool that combines the main parameters and formulas to calculate the indicators, in order to assess the impacts (benefits analysis) and process/display the results in a user-friendly way. Figure 4 • gives an overview of indicators per application case and the synthesis methods. Options to Improve a Highly Congested Road (Case Study I) Transport problems in fast-growing cities often become evident along major road corridors. Historically grown road links often cannot cope with the continuously growing travel demand, and consequently, congestion and sinking average travel speeds occur. As a result, neighbourhoods along major corridors are exposed to extreme noise and air pollution; non-motorised traffic modes are repressed and usually very unattractive. Unfortunately, extensions of such corridors primarily focus on increasing capacities for motorised private transport modes, which is not desirable from a sustainable development point of view. On the contrary: solutions for densely populated areas that are viable for the future require consistent support for public transport and non-motorised modes.

46

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 5

Composition of measures for the first option [PTV Group, based on Google Maps]

Fig. 6

First option: Concept of a queue-jumping lane and pre-signal for buses in the western approach of intersection 1 [PTV Group, based on simulation model VISSIM and Google Maps]

The main factor in increasing the attractiveness of public transport modes is an increase of their average travel speeds. For congested corridors, which are not suitable for rail-based mass transport systems, the upgrade of existing bus systems is the only possibility to enlarge the overall transport capacity. While improving public transport, attention also needs to be paid to attractive and safe access points to stations or stops for pedestrians, in order to strengthen the acceptance of the improvement action. In this context, the first case study deals with two options for improving an important and highly loaded road corridor in the north of Hyderabad for the bus service and pedestrians. This road was chosen because it shows typical structural deficiencies, including: inadequate

47

HYDERABAD

Fig. 7

Composition of measures for the second option [PTV Group, based on Google Maps]

Fig. 8

Simulation of one measure of the second option: median bus lane and bus stop [author, based on simulation model VISSIM and Google Maps]

state of road infrastructure, lack of clear alignment and pedestrian facilities, and low travel speeds for buses. The case study was based on a traffic-flow simulation carried out with PTV’s microscopic simulation software VISSIM. During the course of earlier pilot projects in Hyderabad, this software was adapted significantly to Indian conditions, in order to better reflect non-lane-based—i.e., chaotic—travel behaviour. The study implementation comprised comprehensive data collection for the study area (e.g., road and junction inventory, data on private and public transport, pedestrian facilities), analysis and deficiency characterisations, development of two options, and analysis of the impacts of both options (e.g., GHG- or NOx-emissions, average speeds, level of service, travel times). It has been implemented by

48

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 9

Impacts for case study one [PTV Group] Indicator

Unit

Present condition

Option 1

Option 2

Average bus speeds

[km/h]

18

23

26

Total operation hours for bus service per year

[bus*h]

219,912

177,140

147,465

-365

-885

Fuel consumption per year: all vehicle types

[t]

PTV and its Indian research partner—National Institute of Technology Warangal (NITW)—with strong support (e.g., study conceptualisation, data) from the main planning body for Greater Hyderabad: the Hyderabad Metropolitan Development Authority. The main features of the first option are: · the restricted development in the existing road corridor width, with bus priority measures (“right of way”) mainly in existing road space (e.g., queue-jumping lane, signal optimisation), · the reorganisation of bus stops and passenger accessibility, · the reduction of para-transit (auto rickshaws) parallel to bus service, and · the acceptance of capacity reduction for private transport. Figure 5 • shows the composition of measures for the first option. In contrast to the first option, the second option includes a substantial expansion of the road corridor, with · the implementation of an efficient bus corridor, · extension of the road width (right of way), · the build-up of road sections, and · the extension of bus infrastructure for bigger vehicle types. Essentially, the case study indicates that both options are viable for the development of the corridor. In both options, the enhancement of average travel speeds for public transport and the improvement of accessibility of bus stops can be accomplished. But while option one requires relatively low investment costs, option two requires comprehensive, high-budget infrastructural measures. In-depth comparison of impacts shows that even with the set of rather small and low-cost measures of the first option, noteworthy improvements are possible, such as: · significant rise of average bus speeds up to values competitive to private transport (e.g., 23 km/h bus), · more efficient service provisions—roughly 20% less operating hours with identical supply, · better accessibility, and · reductions of GHG emissions [Figure 9 •]. Hence, it indicates that alternatives to massive road widening for motorised private transport exist. Details of the case study are given in the booklet “A case study on options to improve a road corridor in Hyderabad” [Reith/Schäfer 2012].

49

HYDERABAD

Options to Optimise the Bus Network (Case Study II) Improvement of public transport is one of the highlighted measures when it comes to reducing the negative impacts of traffic and improving the energy efficiency of a transport system. Moreover, the existence of an attractive public transport system (PT) is a prerequisite for preventing people from using cars or motorcycles. However, identifying the best PT supply in terms of service quality, cost efficiency, and attractiveness to customers depends highly on framework conditions, such as urban development, urban density, regulatory conditions, et cetera. Hence, it is difficult to design an optimal public transport network, especially under conditions of rapid growth and change as in Hyderabad. Currently, the PT system in Hyderabad is mainly bus based. One rail-based system, Multi Modal Transport System (MMTS), is already in place. In addition, the implementation of another one, Mass Rail Transit System (MRTS), has just started. Nevertheless, the future PT system will still be highly dependent on bus services in order to provide a high-quality transport system Accordingly, the objectives of case study two were, on the one hand, to identify potentials to optimise the existing bus network, and on the other, to design a bus network that takes future developments into account—for example, the future MRTS. In contrast to case study one, this study was based on the existing, prototypical VISUM transport model, which was set up within the development of the Strategic Transport Planning Tool (STPT). But as for case study one, the implementation of this study also needed a comprehensive collection of primary and secondary data for the study area, including: · coordinates for stop points, exact routing of bus lines, and time tables, · road and junction inventory and · data on private and public transport, pedestrian facilities. With these data, and after the existing model was refined in the study area, different scenarios were developed and various impacts analysed—for example, GHG- or NOx-emissions, service efficiency, service area coverage/accessibility. The study has been implemented by PTV and its Indian research partner Institute of Technology Warangal (NITW) with strong support—including study conceptualisation, data—from the main public transport provider: Andhra Pradesh Road State transport Corporation (APSRTC). Overall, case study two dealt with the following three scenarios: 1. Scenario one comprises different measures to improve the existing network—such as additional bus stops, rerouting of bus routes, and the creation of new bus lines. 2. Scenario two represents a restructuring process of the network towards the future MRTS-network (mid-term scenario). This is mainly achieved by the introduction of two high-capacity bus corridors with dedicated bus lanes in the city centre (where MRTS will serve in future), which are served by articulated buses. At the termination of these bus lanes, transfer points are implemented as existing line routes are being cut at the terminal points of the high-capacity bus corridors and passengers need to be able to transfer to a different line if they want to travel further. These preferential bus routes are displayed in the right box of Figure 10 •. Transfer points are highlighted in red. The blue line indicates the border of the planning area for the case study. 3. Finally, scenario three deals with the structure of the bus network when phase one of the MRTS has been implemented. By this time, APSTRC will have to restructure Hyderabad’s bus network towards a feeder line system with routes aligned to MRTS, as well as MMTS.

50

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Fig. 10 Mid-term scenario: Preferential bus transport system (box to the right) [PTV Group, based on Google Maps]

Fig. 11 GHG mitigation potentials of different scenarios in case study two [PTV Group] Difference Base scenario: three scenarios

Unit

scenario 1

scenario 2

scenario 3

GHG emissions per year

[t CO2]

~ + 110

– 2816

– 7360

In the study context, the impact analysis was focused on the direct mitigation of GHG emissions from the proposed bus operation system. While the possible effects of the modeshift from private transport to public transport is not taken into consideration, this GHG mitigation can be seen as “bottom-line” or minimum mitigation potential. But it also has to be noted that emissions of MMTs and MRTS—which will replace bus operations—also need to be taken into account to get the full picture of the mitigation potentials of the proposed measures and overall public transport system. Thus far, scenario one, which will cause additional GHG emissions due to additional bus services, should become positive once the mode-shift effects are reflected. Scenario two and three, even under the present existing “restrictions”, however, result in reductions of GHG emissions [Figure 11 •]. Details of this case study are given in the booklet “A case study on options to improve public transport in Hyderabad” [Sator/Schäfer 2012]. Walkable Hyderabad: Improvements for Pedestrians (Case Study III) In order to support the most climate-friendly mode of transport—walking—and in order to draw attention to the high number of pedestrians’ fatalities in road accidents, the “Sustainable Hyder-

51

HYDERABAD

abad” project has started the Walkable Hyderabad Initiative in addition to the case studies described above. The initiative was founded in 2010, recognising the need to counteract the proceeding discrimination and exclusion of pedestrians in urban space. In times when the drawbacks of Hyderabad’s “TO MAKE IT SAFER TO WALK, THERE SHOULD BE GOOD FOOTPATHS.“ rapid transformation—noise, pollution, rising social inequalities—become more and more apparent, the initiative actively promotes walking as an integral part of sustainable urban development and the creation of an inclusive urban society. Therefore, the needs of pedestrians have to be treated as a priority for urban infrastructure development. Safe walking environments are urgently required in the urban landscape— Ms. K. Shreya, also for those who are impaired in their mobility. With regard to the problematic situation for pedestrians, the Walkable Hyderabad Initiative aims to: · analyse and present the perspectives of individual citizens, taxi and rickshaw drivers, street vendors, and traffic policemen on the transport system; · investigate the relevant stakeholders in the field, especially from civil society and those responsible for planning and infrastructure provision; · include the perspectives of civil society groups, practitioners, and academia in the planning and management of the transport system; · investigate solutions proposed by experts to make Hyderabad a pedestrian-friendly “Walkable City”; · raise awareness regarding the declining options for non-motorised transport, especially walking and cycling. Ultimately, the decision to make walking a priority is a decision about who the city and its public space belongs to: the people who live in this city, and who by their actions contribute to a vibrant urban life—citizens who meet and socialise in public, children who play in the street, street vendors who secure the provision of food and services for the population, to name a few. Therefore, the initiative—supported by nexus Institute and PTV, Habitat Forum BerlinTU Berlin, Goethe Centre Hyderabad, The Right to Walk Foundation, Jawaharlal Nehru Architecture and Fine Arts University (JNAFAU) Hyderabad, and Hyderabad Architecture Foundation (HAF)—integrates many research activities and practical experiences within the local context. To reach the aims mentioned, numerous activities have been initiated, including: · a citizens’ exhibition titled “Ready to Move” [Figure 12 • as example], · a walk-to-school day, · expert and policy workshops on Walkable Hyderabad, · a pilot project to implement a pedestrian zone and a pedestrian crossing over a central thoroughfare of Hyderabad (Afzal Gunj). The latter was also based on microscopic simulation, which included the special feature of pedestrian simulation. For details on the various activities, see the status report on small-scale pilot projects to improve the traffic situation in Hyderabad [Kern/Reith/Schäfer 2010; Jain et al. 2012]. The activities have also pointed out that there is still a lot of work to be done before the National Urban Transport Policy of the National Ministry for Urban Development (MoUD) is properly implemented. Thus far, the city council has tried to keep pace with the demands of growth and globalised markets through massive investments in infrastructure, such as

Fig. 12 Example of citizens’ exhibition “Ready to Move” [nexus Institute Berlin]

“There should be good footpaths. I normally walk to school,

and I also walk around Tarnaka at times. But it is not at all comfortable, because there is a lot of traffic here. You know, it is kind of noisy and quite irritating. You don’t feel like going out. … To make it safer to walk, there should be good footpaths. They should not build shops on the footpaths. People even drive on the footpath. That is very dangerous. The footpath is only for the pedestrians to walk on. It is not meant for vehicles to move on it.

“Many people lose their lives in traffic. Well, I try to be very careful, but still, there are many accidents that I happen to face. Once I was trying to overtake an auto. When I was about to overtake it, we crashed into each other and I fell. Now, I don’t ride on these main roads anymore with my scooty. I always go in my father’s car or I just give it up – even if it is urgent work. … Many people lose their lives in traffic. We watch it in the news, we read it in the newspaper. People should be aware of that and learn to be careful.” If that zebra crossing was there, maybe it would

be safer here. Actually there was a zebra crossing there, but it gets worn off by the people while crossing, now the paint is gone.

“The traffic police improved the situation. While crossing the road you feel very tense, because many accidents took place here. People lost their lives on the spot. … In my childhood, when I was crossing the road, suddenly a car ran over me. I did not get hurt. But I never forget that incident. … They took measures like posting traffic police while going to school, and then while coming back until all children are out of school, so we can cross the road. That improved the situation to some extent.”

Student 8th Standard Age: 13 years | Resident of Ghatkesar | 3 members in the household | 3 cars

www.sustainable-hyderabad.in

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Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research

Tarnaka Residents Welfare Association

Concept: Angela Jain l Sabine Schröder l Bhaskar Poldas Fotos: Sabine Schröder l Günter Nest Design: Alexander Heidemüller l Donja Rahimzadiany

CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

flyovers, road widening, metro rails, and a new international airport. In the inner city, street space has increasingly been dedicated to motorised transportation and comparatively little has been done to safeguard traditional forms of use—for example, walking. However, despite the obstacles against these modes, walking remains an important mode of transportation. The failure to protect these uses means neglecting the needs of the majority of urban citizens, especially of the urban poor. Thus, the use of street space should be reconceived and re-negotiated by the users themselves—i.e., the citizens. The Walkable Hyderabad Initiative has started such a process, but it will take some time before this process results in the implementation or improvement of actual, concrete infrastructure. Implementation, Capacity Development, and Policy Learning Constraints and Opportunities for Implementation The Strategic Transport Planning Tool (STPT) and the case studies were implemented successfully, but admittedly in different contexts than originally anticipated. Naturally, one would expect the planning bodies to be the main users of the methods and tools developed within the project. A necessary condition for this is to have appropriately qualified staff. As we learned in the course of the project, a lack of professional staff is a general problem in Indian planning bodies, and also within the planning authorities of Hyderabad. Hence, they were not able to implement the methods and tools as envisaged. The planning bodies solve the lack of own professional staff by outsourcing most of the planning work to consultants, which can either be private companies or research institutes. Therefore, these organisations will be the main users of the project results. Nevertheless, insights into the present state of the transport planning—gained by the development of the tools and case studies—shows, that know-how on suitable measures for energy-efficient and overall sustainable transport planning is not widely spread among professional transport planners and transport planning students. Hence, an accompanying capacity building programme was designed, to ensure that the developed methods and tools can be put to the best use in future. Given that planning bodies lack professional staff and outsource planning work, the main target groups are future transport planners (students) and consultants. Capacity Development at Research Institutes on Planning Tools According to the findings described above, a capacity building programme for universities was developed jointly with the research partner NIT Warangal. This was possible because NIT Warangal was intensively involved in the tool and case study conceptualisation and implementation. The one-year programme, based on know-how gained from the project activities, was designed in a modular way: starting with educating students on elements of and tools for Comprehensive Mobility Planning (module one + two), and expanding the programme to professional planners in the last module (three). Between October 2011 and October 2012, the programme was conducted successfully at NIT Warangal. Due to its success, it was even extended to a fourth workshop in February 2013 and will be continued after the end of the research project, since NIT Warangal is one of five centres of excellence for Urban Transportation set up by the Government of India with the mission to build capacities on sustainable urban transport planning. The study methods are already being multiplied in additional master theses at NITW.

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Capacity Development on Promotion of Walking The Walkable Hyderabad Initiative, which was started by the project, has increased its outreach and has been promoting walkability on many different stages—“on the street”, as well as on academic and administrative level. These efforts were based on research activities and done in co-operation with civil society and cultural organisations, academics, professionals, and concerned citizens. The following provides an overview about the spectrum of approaches that has been applied so far. The initiative was: · connected with civil society organisations in Hyderabad in order to pool resources; · interacted with other walking initiatives in India and Asia to share experiences; · conducted numerous site inspections for analysing and documenting the current state of pedestrian infrastructure in the city. This material is used to make the city authorities aware of pedestrians’ grievances and works towards improvement of the infrastructure and maintenance (activity led by the Right to Walk Foundation); · maintained a dialogue with citizens about their mobility needs and their wishes towards the future of transportation in Hyderabad; · has discussed the importance of walking for sustainable urban development at scientific conferences—in Hyderabad, in India, in other parts of Asia and all over the world; · has initiated and hosted discussions, exhibitions, and other events concerned with the future of Hyderabad; · has trained students of urban planning and architecture—in co-operation with academics and professionals of JNAFAU Hyderabad and TU Berlin to create walkable environments in their future professions; · has initiated and conducted various student exchanges and supervised theses with relation to the topic of walking. In order to sustain the topic and to address the challenges in the future, the Walkable Hyderabad Initiative decided in 2012 to go to the next level. After years with a strong focus on awareness-raising for a pedestrian-friendly city, the initiative wanted to concentrate more on implementation of applicable solutions. Consequently, the Centre for Pedestrian Infrastructure and Planning (CPIP) was formed in February 2013. It works as a network centre, bringing together all pedestrian-related activities of Hyderabad. The centre is hosted by the School of Planning and Architecture at Jawaharlal Nehru Institute for Advanced Studies. The formation of the centre was realised at a point in time when Hyderabad’s urban landscape was about to change once again due to the introduction of the metro system. Pedestrian access to the future system is crucial for the success of mass transit in Hyderabad, and the new centre dedicates itself to providing the necessary input to make the metro usable by everyone. The purpose of CPIP is to impart training and conduct research for students/professionals leading to capacity building in pedestrian infrastructure and public spaces usage. The first activity after opening was a planning competition for students, which resulted in an exhibition of planning solutions for one of the most congested stretches in the city: the stretch from Lakdi-ka-pul to Mahavir Hospital junction—as a site that evokes memories of the past—draws attention to the current crisis, and explores creative visions for a safe, healthy, and environmentally friendly future of pedestrians in Hyderabad.

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Policy Learning As mentioned earlier, the developed planning and simulation tools (STPT) could not be applied directly in the local planning process due to the lack of professional staff in the planning bodies. Nevertheless, it was possible to develop capacities on measures and methods of sustainable transport planning at the main planning bodies HMDA and APSRTC. This was achieved through their intense involvement in the development of the planning tools and of both case studies—for example, through the selection of the study topic and area, contribution of data, participating at trainings on tools, and discussion of results. One outcome of this capacity development, for example, is that HMDA will change the standards for studies they outsource to consultants—e.g., traffic impact studies—in such a way, that the quality of these studies must meet the quality of the case studies implemented within the research project. In the local political context, the project results were fed into the policy formulation process in form of policy recommendations. These recommendations were discussed at a Policy Dialogue Day on “Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition Process Towards Sustainable Hyderabad”. The deliberation saw speakers seeking increased focus on controlling the impact of climate change for a better city. Health Minister D.L. Ravindra Reddy appreciated the concentrated work on urbanisation and announced the development of recommendations for a draft policy that would help transform Hyderabad into a sustainable city. It was seen as a welcome approach that the project considered the impact of climate change on the city, including annual rainfall and heat waves, and helped to work out necessary responses. Furthermore, Mr. Neerabh Kumar Prasad gave an overview of Hyderabad Metropolitan Development Authority’s (HMDA) planning with the future in mind. At present, the planners were contemplating changes in the master plan with regard to climate change aspects in the infrastructure and building sector. Concerning the Walkable Hyderabad Initiative, policy dialogue has resulted in more awareness and in plans for a “Pedestrian Policy”. In April 2011, the “Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation” (GHMC) introduced a special cell to deal with pedestrians’ problems. GHMC officials invited the Right to Walk Foundation (R2W) and the Walkable Hyderabad Consortium to participate. The policy aims to address standardised designs for footpaths and other aspects as well as regulations regarding encroachment by parked vehicles and hawkers. In September 2011, GHMC started a pilot programme with model footpaths in five roads with a total length of 100 km. This is still ongoing. In April 2012, R2W—in cooperation with the Consumers Association of India (CAI) and Vadaa, an NGO based in Hyderabad—organised a “Walkability Dialogue”, which was attended by several government officers and GHMC commissioners. Subsequent to the “Walkability Dialogue”, the project team was again requested by GHMC commissioners to take part in the development of a “Pedestrian Policy” with the idea to develop “Walking Guidelines” for Hyderabad, which includes necessary regulations for the building of sidewalks and that predominantly addresses authorities, planners, architects, and property owners. It should serve as a normative and applicable/practical guideline that enhances activities towards a sustainable pedestrian infrastructure. The project results were disseminated at various capacity building workshops—not only at NIT Warangal, but also the Urban Mobility Conference in India 2012—and will be continued with user-friendly brochures, booklets, and manuals that can be found at the links given in chapter one.

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Conclusion and Outlook The development of sustainable transport options for megacities requires optimisation on different levels: data collection and prognosis, planning procedures and governance, capacity building for planners, awareness and traffic behaviour, and finally the level of built infrastructure. In India, as could be examined in the example of Hyderabad, the level of built infrastructure is primarily addressed, while the other levels are neglected. The project “Sustainable Hyderabad” tried to contribute knowledge and solutions on the level of planning procedures for infrastructure improvement, capacity building, and awareness raising. The application of methods and of the strategic transport planning tools enhanced and developed within the project are appropriate to create a resilient and overall sustainable transport system, even without building new major infrastructures or widening roads. However, the activities linked with the case studies also showed that there is still a long way to go before the National Urban Transport Policy of the MoUD is transferred on the ground. On one hand, this is due to a lack of appropriate data needed for the planning process (like structural data, travel demand data, or factors that influence travel behaviour). On the other hand, it is also due to the fact that know-how on options to integrate and to design sustainable urban land use and a sustainable transport system is not yet widely spread amongst transport professionals and urban planners. With regard to non-motorised modes, they do not have a strong lobby. Thus far, transport planning in Hyderabad has been chiefly focused on improving the situation for private motorised transport rather than on more energy-efficient modes. The two case studies sought to tackle this situation by giving suggestions for an improved bus-network. The third case study, Walkable Hyderabad, addressed the overall awareness for non-motorised transport and tried to create a lobby for this often-underprivileged group of citizens. In the context of sustainable development, it is highly problematic that investments are primarily made for the construction of large and cost-intensive infrastructure—such as flyovers, outer ring road (159 km by-pass), or metro rail. This is especially questionable, because the data used for the infrastructure planning (alignment and capacities) are outdated, as previously mentioned. Therefore, besides the updating of the planning data, which is currently ongoing, capacity building measures on sustainable transport planning is a major issue that needs to be tackled to improve the situation. The research project, therefore, initiated capacity building with academic institutions and professional planners. These initiatives were well received but will, nevertheless take more time before they come to fruition in terms of implemented, sustainable infrastructure. Concluding, the clear political will to follow the idea of sustainable city development has to be supported by an integration of transport planning (with regard to all modes!) and urban planning, by awareness raising (administration and citizens), and by capacity building. Some first steps have been made within the Sustainable Hyderabad project. These measures all imply the potential of continuation—it now depends on the local actors to implement them citywide.

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References AP State Police (2011): Proposal For Establishment Of Bureau Of Road Safety & Traffic Planning. http://www. apstatepolice.org/APPW/jsp/howDoIUser.do?method=howDoICategories2&howDoICategoryId=53&howDoICategoryName=PROPOSAL%20FOR%20ESTABLISHMENT%20OF%20BUREAU%20OF%20ROAD%20SAFETY%20 &%20TRAFFIC%20PLANNING, 20.12.2012 Census India (2011): Population Census 2011. http://www.census2011.co.in/census/city/392-hyderabad.html, 25.02.2013 EPW (2009): “Democracy and the Small Car”. In: Economic and Political Weekly. Editorial. Vol. 44, No. 14 Government of India (undated): National Action Plan on Climate Change, Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change, http://pmindia.gov.in/climate_change_english.pdf, 25.02.2013 HMDA (Hyderabad Metropolitan Development Authority) (2011): “Inception Report”. In: Comprehensive Transportation Study (CTS) for Hyderabad Metropolitan Area (HMA). Vol. I/2011 International Transport Forum (2010): Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Country Data2010. http://www. internationaltransportforum.org/Pub/pdf/10GHGCountry.pdf Jain, A. et al. (2012): Participative Processes in the Field of Traffic and Transport. Emerging Megacities. Vol. 7/2010. Bremen Khayesi, M./Monheim, H./Nebe, J.M. (2010): “Negotiating Streets for All”. In: Urban Transport Planning: The Case for Pedestrians, Cyclists and Street Vendors in Nairobi, Kenya”. In: Antipode. Vol. 42(1), pp. 103–26 Keller et al. (2010): Handbook emission factors for road transport (Version 3.1). Bern Kern, G./Reith, J./Schäfer, T. (2010): Sustainable Transport Planning: Status Report on the Small-Scale Pilot Projects to Improve the Traffic Situation in Hyderabad. http://www.sustainable-hyderabad.de/2010delivs/ deliv2010-no10.html, 25.02.2013 MoUD (Ministry of Urban Development) (2006): National Urban Transport Policy. http://urbanindia.nic.in/policies/ TransportPolicy.pdf, 25.02.2013 MoUD (Ministry of Urban Development) (2008): Guidelines and Toolkits for Urban Transport Development in Medium Sized Cities in India. Module 1: Comprehensive Mobility Plans (CMPs). http://indiagovernance.gov.in/files/ guidelines-and-toolkits-for-urban-transport-development.pdf, 25.02.2013 Ramachandraiah, C. (2010): Institutional Aspects in Urban Transportation - a Study of Berlin and Hyderabad. Unpublished Paper prepared as part of the Visiting Fellowship during March-May 2010 under the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) at the Humboldt University of Berlin, Germany in the “Sustainable Hyderabad” Project Reith, J./Schäfer, T. (2012): A Case study on options to improve a road corridor in Hyderabad. Karlsruhe Sator, M./Schäfer, T. (2012): A Case study on options to improve public transport in Hyderabad. Karlsruhe Schäfer, T. (2013): How to identify mitigation potentials and adaptation requirements of transport systems? Approach to facilitate the consideration of climate change in the transport sector: a Guideline. Karlsruhe Notes 1 Special Economic Zones in India were announced in April 2000 and are intended as an engine for economic growth, supported by quality infrastructure, complemented by an attractive fiscal package, both at the centre and the state level, with the minimum regulations possible. For more information, see: http://www.sezindia.nic.in 2 The Jawaharlal Nehru National Renewal Mission was launched in December 2005 by the Government of India to provide financial assistance for selected Indian Cities to overcome deficiencies of urban infrastructure, such as water, transport, and service delivery. JNNURM aims at integrated developments and urban reforms. For more information, see http://www.jnnurm.nic.in/ 3 VISUM is state-of-the art software for macroscopic transport modelling. 4 Setting up a transport model requires a great deal of actual/current input data, as well as plausible future developments. As data and models on current or future transport demand are not available for Hyderabad at present, a prototypical model was established with available, outdated secondary data. Current data will be available once the Comprehensive Transport Study has been completed (late 2013). With this data, the prototypical model can be updated. 5 Potsdam Institute for Climate Research 6 CATHY: Climate Assessment Tool for Hyderabad is an open-source GIS-database, which shows the effect of different climate change scenarios for Hyderabad up to 2100 on different parts of the city fabric—for example, slums, water, and transport infrastructure.

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TEHRAN-KARAJ: Pedestrian bridge [Born]

Wulf-Holger Arndt, Norman Döge

Tehran-Karaj, Hashtgerd—Integrated Urban and Transportation Planning for GHG Emission Reduction Background and Challenges: Urban Growth and Climate Change Hashtgerd New Town in the Tehran-Karaj Agglomeration The population in Iran has increased dramatically since 1980. In 2013, the number of inhabitants reached 78 million. The average age of twenty-seven years [worldstat 2014] is one driver of the urbanisation. Another one is a rural-to-urban migration, which has resulted in serious social, ecological, and economic challenges for cities. In addition, the birth rates since the nineteen-eighties have placed high pressure on the Iranian housing market. In 2007, the Iranian Ministry of Housing and Urban Development estimated the need for about 1.5 million new housing units per year through 2013 [Ohlenburg et al. 2013]. Related to this urbanisation, energy demand is also increasing—about 8% per annum [Soltanieh 2010]. The energy supply is largely based on fossil fuels and natural gas, particularly in the transportation sector in Iran, which is responsible for around 25% of the national energy consumption [ibid.]. The high share of transportation in the overall energy balance is due to highly subsidised petrol. The Tehran region is the economical, political, and cultural centre of Iran and hosts a population of close to 13.8 million residents—20% of the Iranian population [PopulationData.net 2013]. The region holds 70% of Iran’s economic and financial powers [Fanni 2006]. The increasing energy consumption—mainly based on fossil sources—will increase CO2 emissions. “In the next decades (2010–2040), Iran will experience a warmer and dryer climate. Temperature increases will also lead to rising sea levels, threatening both (coast lines of) the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea. Given that Iran’s available settlement areas are defined by regional (potentially) hazardous and desert conditions, a sea level rise could potentially indirectly increase the settlement pressure on the Tehran-Karaj region. The increase of temperature will also have a significant impact on cities and urban agglomerations, as temperature discrepancies are remarkably higher in heavily populated and industrialized areas” [Ohlenburg et al. 2013]. One of the strategies for solving the problems of population growth is building New Towns. These New Towns should firstly discharge the (cities with) large agglomerations. A secondary goal is the restructuring and decentralisation of the population in the metropolitan areas. Based on this, New Towns will be planned and built in Iran. The Iranian leading partners are the Building and Housing Research Center (BHRC) and the New Towns Development Corporation (NTDC). The main objective of the Young Cities project is to find out whether the development of New Towns is a reasonable strategy to slow down the population growth in urban agglomerations. The largest of the thirty planned Iranian New Towns is Hashtgerd, situated 65 km northwest of the megacity Tehran and 30 km west of the Megacity Karaj. The research project

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Fig. 1

(left) Tehran-Karaj urban growth centre [Fathejalali/Khodabakhsh/Pakzad 2012, 24]

Fig. 2

(right) Hashtgerd New Town [Born]

Fig. 3

Proposed land use for Hashtgerd New Town (revised Comprehensive Plan) [Fathejalali/Khodabakhsh/Pakzad 2012, 29]

outlines the development of the planned Hashtgerd New Town in the agglomeration Tehran/ Karaj and implements research results in form of pilot projects within the New Town. At the Technische Universität Berlin, the Departments of City and Regional Planning, Architecture, Civil Engineering, and Transportation Planning are involved in this project. The New Town of Hashtgerd, located in the south of the Alborz Mountain Range next to the Tehran Qazvin Highway, was initially planned to accommodate 500,000 people. The massive shortfall in reaching the New Town’s population goals—combined with the necessity to adapt to modern demographic, social, and economic changes in the Tehran-Karaj region—led to a re-

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Fig. 4

Key actors in Iranian Young Cities [Farshad 2013, 6] NTDC

Councilors

Augmenting Responsibility

Municipality

Place Quality

Residents Interest NGOs !

vised comprehensive plan for 2005 onwards, which also extended the targeted final population number to 660,000 [Fathejalali/Khodabakhsh/Pakzad 2012]. The number of inhabitants in 2013 was 30,000. The distribution of the settlement areas was elaborated, safeguarding the optimal provision of central services and goods and based on the theory of central places. The planned transportation network was intended to serve only the needs of motorised individual transport. Although the revised comprehensive plan briefly describes the planned Tehran metro extension to Hashtgerd and mentions the necessity of a public bus system, the main emphasis lies on the optimal distribution of motorised traffic entering and leaving the city through one of the big gates of the Tehran-Qazvin highway. Inside the city, the planned and already partly constructed main arteries in north-south and east-west direction form a rectangular road pattern. Facilities of slow modes and environmentally friendly means of transport—such as walking and cycling—are only planned in the form of minimum standards. Stakeholders and Institutional Settings Since 1985, the Iranian Ministry has made 16,000 ha of land available to cope with the enormous housing demand. The ministry was responsible for the identification of suitable land, as well as buying, designing, and implementing New Towns. For this task, the New Towns Development Cooperation (NTDC) was founded. Consulting offices conducted feasibility studies and developed master plans for the New Towns [Farshad 2013, 5]. The NTDC manager of a New Town has the full responsibility for all matters until the municipality is settled. In particular, he is responsible for the development of the town, which includes selling land to developers, implementing the master plan, or representing the town’s interests. As soon as the population of a New Town exceeds 10,000 inhabitants, a city council and municipality has to be established. The city council is elected by the inhabitants and has the task of counselling the mayor of the city. The NTDC has to deliver any infrastructure and public spaces for the city free of charge. Besides these actors, the inhabitants play a key role in the decision-making process as residents or as members of non-governmental organisations (NGOs). In the Iranian New Towns, many transportation problems exist. Most master plans for New Towns are strongly car-oriented. Public transport services, as well as concepts for bike and walking systems, are mostly insufficient. This leads to emission problems and disadvantages for people without cars.

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Solutions: Compact URBAN FORM to Reduce Traffic Issues and Challenges: Growing Traffic and Increasing Traffic-based GHG Emissions In recent decades, the oil-producing countries have been spending a large share of their income on reshaping and erecting the putative cities of tomorrow, whose transport systems are planned to rely to a great extent on private motorization. On the contrary, most of the agglomerations in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region have not been capable of providing basic safe, affordable, and reliable transportation infrastructure to their populations. Moreover, the municipalities, overwhelmed by massive population growth, were not able to realign transport-planning policies to accommodate the fast-changing urban development framework. As a result, increased travel distances in the MENA region’s uncontrollably expanding agglomerations are primarily tackled by the fast-growing stock of private vehicles, as well as by the privately operated, only partly regulated, and insufficient public transport, which to a great extent consists of mini-vans and shared taxis. This, from the environmental and social point of view, unsustainable development of the urban transport system—particularly of the public transport system—has fostered even more excessive reliance on private automobiles [World Bank 2010]. In many developing countries, where the rates of motorisation are increasing rapidly, the main coping strategy for the emerging problems is to enlarge the street infrastructure. Today, Iranian cities are facing similar problems: in 1997, already 20% of all GHG emissions stemmed from Tehran’s urban transport sector [PLS Ramboll Management 2003]. Furthermore, between 1996 and 2002, the number of vehicle kilometres travelled during congestion increased from about 21 to 27% [World Bank 2010]. The former master plan of the Hashtgerd New Town also prioritised car traffic. The results of a car-oriented policy are shown in Iran’s petrol consumption balance [Figure 5 •]. The petrol consumption by transport is increasing consistently year by year, and in 2005 accounted for over 50% of the total petrol products consumed. Strategies and Solutions: Hard and Soft Policies The Iranian government is pursuing a long-term strategy to transform the country into a post-fossil society. One of the main instruments is price policy. Energy prices have risen dramatically in recent years. As a result, energy consumption decreased in most of the societal sectors, but not in transportation [Figure 5 •]. This price policy started in the transport sector very late in 2008. Following the strategy to reduce traffic-related CO2 emissions, a mixed-use approach was developed as the main element of an integrated urban transportation concept for Hashtgerd City. Thus, in the case of a 35-ha pilot area (Shahre Javan), the project dimension tries to elaborate an integrated transport concept. The guiding principle for the elaboration of a concept for Hashtgerd and the 35-ha pilot area is to consider the interrelations between spatial structure and traffic demand using innovative transport simulation software, such as VISEVA/VISUM. The enhancement of the model developed by partners at Technische Universität Dresden (TU Dresden) was used for the optimisation of a traffic-reduced spatial structure for the first time in this project.

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Fig. 5

Consumption of petroleum products by sector, Iran 1974–2005 [Ministry of Energy Iran, Energy Planning Department 2008]

Fig. 6

Possible instruments for implementing the chosen leitmotif (left hard and right soft policies, above push and below pull measures) [Arndt 2011, 122]

● Limitation of parking space ● Exaltation of MT trip costs through road design measures (e.g., speed humps, bottlenecks) ● Access limitations through streetwidths layout (one-way systems)

● Usage based apportionment of external costs (eco-fuel tax) ● Exaltation of MT trip costs through access limitations, speed limitations ● City/highway toll?

Integrated concept ● Pedestrian/PT Privileging road way and path design (e.g., wide footpaths and -ways, high number of crossings, barrier freedom) ● High density foot path and PT network ● High density of PT stops

● Mobility management ● Mobility package ● Information on transport ● Infrastructure ● Campaigns  

“Reducing traffic and increasing mobility” is the target envisaged. The main approach focuses on a shift of mobility routines and the support of environmentally friendly means of transport, through the provision of a modern, efficient public transport network, an information network for alternative ways of movement, and different measures to delimit the attractiveness of conventional, motorised individual traffic. The special situation as a New Town is the chance to strongly influence the traffic behaviour of the new inhabitants towards sustainability. Key elements of the transport concept are: · support of the mixed land-use approach through adequate mobility systems, · accessibility (social and area related), · integration of all traffic means in transport and urban planning, · support of environmentally friendly means of transport (slow modes, public transport),

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· filtered permeability of spaces and coequality for traffic modes regarding their environmental impacts (traffic management), · a flexible and adaptable transport and mobility planning approach, · avoidance of extraneous traffic through residential areas, · increasing traffic safety, · participation of all stakeholders in the planning process, and · attention to disaster management. In pursuit of these goals and sub-goals, the transport strategy of the Shahre Javan Community pilot project focuses on reducing travel distances and shifting both transportation routines and vehicle choices. In order to achieve this, “push” and “pull” strategies are combined with hard and soft policy measures. Figure 6 • shows a choice of possible measures. On the city-wide level of Hashtgerd, an integrated public transport system (concept) is envisaged as a major framework. Its main task is to organise the hierarchically structured public transport system, consisting of light rail transit (LRT) or bus rapid transit (BRT), city bus, and a neighbourhood bus (as midibus or minibus). The often-underestimated soft policies (e.g., information packages, campaigns) should provide consumers with adequate information about the public transport system. This system also serves the city of Old Hashtgerd. Following the Young Cities project set-up, the major target of the public transport approach is to support energy-efficient and CO2-reducing mobility routines. Furthermore, the plan allows a sufficient and easily accessible public transport system that also gives minor social groups the ability to participate in the local and regional society. The third aim is the spatial, horizontal integration of the 35-ha pilot area, as well as the settlements of Old Hashtgerd and Hoseynabad into the regional public transport network. The approach consists of four major elements formed by hard and soft policies, and by push and pull measures. The soft policies cover a kind of mobility management, with the aim of informing and supporting the regional population about environmentally friendly ways of movement and the public transport system itself. In contrast, hard policies form the physical basis of eco-mobility encouragement, such as the development of attractive public transport, footpath, and bicycle systems. In this part of the strategy, pedestrians, cyclists, and shared transport are prioritised, while motorised traffic is of secondary importance. Basic functions and accessibility are maintained for service, delivery, and rescue purposes, as well as for limited individual motorised traffic. The reduction of the car traffic will be achieved by a limitation of parking lots. In the pilot area a parking lot factor of 0.2 is intended. Mobility Management and Public Transport Approach The major target of the transportation concept is to establish energy-efficient and CO2reducing mobility routines that enable all social groups to participate. The concept’s intention is to reach these targets through a mix of “push” and “pull” strategies and by using hard and soft policies to force the shift of transport routines and vehicle choice. The mobility management is the core element of the pull and soft policies and contains measures including information and communication management, organising services and coordinating activities of different partners. This management system aims to influence the travel choice, destination, and location decisions of inhabitants, companies, and other groups, such as tourists. It provides information to these target groups and receives feedback from the traffic users, which flows back into the planning system. Its aims are firstly to coordinate all of the authorities

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Fig. 7

Mobility management concept for Hashtgerd New Town [Döge]

Mobility Management

With Focus on Organisation and Coordination

Mobility offices Municipality

Municipality

Advice Campaigns

Mobility Package

Customer Service

PT Carrier

City Marketing

Transport Adviser

Move Management

Workshops for Employees

Tourism

Workshops for Logisticians

Ticketing Internet Portal Public Relations

Special Target Groups / Destinations

Inhabitants

Economy 1

Mobility package for new residents [Döge]

Components

Phases

Fig. 8

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

Phase 4

Phase 5

Shipment of “Welcome Package” and Service Card

Motivational Call

Shipment of Information Material and Test Ticket

Deepening Conversation

Shipment of Additional Information Material

Mobility Booklet

Motivational Call

Shipment

•  Information on the city and its background •  Institutions •  Shopping •  Public Transport •  Foot & Bike •  Car •  Distance Travelling •  Option to order more information using the service card

Calling New Hashtgerdians who have not sent back the service card

Shipment of written or telephonic ordered information material and optionally test tickets, or other combined offers: e.g., car sharing & public transport ticket, bike and public transport ticket

Deepening Conversation Mobility advice: •  Questions •  Offers •  Wishes

Shipment •  Shipment of additional information material •  Shipment of subscription form

Test-ticket users are questioned concerning their: •  Satisfaction •  Wishes •  Motivation •  Need for further information material •  Subscriptions

Evaluation 1

and efforts regarding environmental mobility—for example, reduction of transport distances, and the use of footpaths, bicycles, and public transport. Secondly, it informs the regional population about environmentally friendly ways of movement and supports the establishment of sustainable mobility routines [Figure 7 •]. The suitable time for a mind shift and building new mobility routines is during the change of residence. In that phase of (a person’s) reorientation, a special element of the mobili-

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Fig. 9

Accessibility patterns of public transport stops in the Shahre Javan Community [Arndt/Döge 2013, 165]

ty management—the mobility package for new inhabitants—will provide information and guidance about environmental mobility (eco-mobility) and will give incentives to use public transport (PT) and make a change in lifestyle. Since an individual develops his future mobility routines during a short reorientation phase after the move to a new location (relocating), instruments intended to influence this process towards eco-mobility are included in the transport concept. The mobility management primarily concentrates on the change of mobility routines, since new residents will largely originate from Greater Tehran or other urban agglomerations that rely heavily on individual motorised transport. Soft policy measures are one part of the strategy to support this shift of mobility routines towards more eco-mobility. The key instrument in this strategy is a “mobility package” for inhabitants. The mobility package for new inhabitants uses the change of residence and the associated reorientation and reset of the traffic mode. This instrument aims to support sustainable traffic routines by helping with PT orientation and recommending locations for short travel distances. The package includes information, services, and incentives—for instance, a test ticket for the public transport system—needed for a modal shift away from individual motorised transport. High-quality Public Transport Service The hard policies form the preliminary design of the public transport system. With the target being a further optimisation, a first approach was drafted and integrated into the transportation model. The draft follows certain criteria: · high capacities on the main arteries from north to south, · additional city-wide bus system as a feeder on arteries from east to west, · small buses connecting local neighbourhoods, · throughout the city, the next PT stop should be reachable within a distance of under 300 m, · integration of a common taxi system, · high-capacity connection to the railway station and the planned metro station, providing the commuter connection to Teheran, · integration of Old Hashtgerd and the industrial belt in its north, and · incremental expandability. The result was a preliminary approach representing the maximum version, which will be further optimised using the results of the transportation model. This first approach consists of the following public transport offers:

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LAYOUT: Norman Döge, Anna Várdai, Arman Fathejalali

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Fig. 10 Hashtgerd New Town—land use and preliminary public transport approach [Döge]

1. Tram (LRT) /BRT · capacity: 2,000–30,000 passengers/h · catchment area: < 300 m 2. City Bus · capacity: 1,000–4,000 passengers/h · catchment area: 250 m–300 m 3. Local Bus · minibus · catchment area: < 250 m The integration of these three services in the public transport network combines high accessibility in the neighbourhood with short distances to residential areas and high system speed. Compared with bus service, light rail transit is inflexible (separate rail network), but produces less CO2, consumes less energy, has lower life-cycle costs, and higher capacity. For this reason, the bus rapid transit on separate lanes is the first high-capacity option and can be developed in response to growing demand from public transportation users. It can subsequently be substituted with light rail systems using the same lanes. Figure 10 • shows this first approach, which is to be further optimised using the results of the transport model. Parking Concept with Reduced Parking Lot Factor The provision of parking lots has a strong impact on the modal split. A high availability of parking space located closed to the dwellings supports high car use. Figure 11 • shows this interrelation between public transport share and parking lot supply. The demand for public transport is higher if parking lots are not guaranteed.

Fig. 11 Impacts of parking provision [Mezghani 2006] Cars

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Modal Split 2027

Fig. 12 Modal split in Hashtgerd New Town 2027 [Paykadeh 2011]

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MAP AND LAYOUT Date: 21.04.2011 Layout: Norman Döge, René Kämpfer Data & Planning Prerequisites: Arndt, Kämpfer, Straub, Döge

 

The Iranian guidelines for New Towns specify one parking lot per dwelling in housing areas as a minimum. This would create an oversupply of parking lots and strong support for car use. The motorisation rate in Hashtgerd New Town in 2027 will reach 125 cars per 1,000 inhabitants [Paykadeh 2011]. Based on a four-person household, this leads to 50% household car owners and parking lot factor of 0.5 parking lots per dwelling. To promote the public transport use and CO2 reduction, a decrease in car ownership is need, and the goal should be 20% household car owners. This would also support the modal split in the comprehensive plan for Hashtgerd New Town [Figure 12 •]. Thus, a parking lot factor of 0.2 is an initial parameter of the transport concept for the 35-ha pilot area in Hashtgerd New Town. Figure 17 • compares the CO2 emissions impact of different parking lot factors. It shows the deep decrease of CO2 emission through the reduction from 1.0 to 0.2 of the parking lot factor. Figure 13 • shows the space consumption for conventional parking lot demand with factor 1.0 parking lots per dwelling in the Hashtgerd 35-ha pilot area. The purple strips symbolise the spatial demand of the parking areas. It illustrates that an extensive parking provision remains, despite a compact urban form. The parking lots would cover all wetlands alongside the access roads and some parts of the residential building areas. All of these aspects show that a maximum parking lot factor should not be higher than 0.2 parking lots per dwelling. Planning Tools and Data Availability Several tools were used in the dimension “Mobility and Transportation” in the Young Cities project. Apart from the traffic model software VISEVA/VISUM, tools for special uses were developed. Adapted Planning Tool with Low Data Availability Models and Databases Developed with ArcGis The software ArcGis is a programme that visualises geographic information and combines spatial features with data (attributes). Basic data sets were developed for Hashtgerd and adapted for different issues such as the accessibility of public transport. Transportation Model Using the Software VISEVA+/VISUM VISEVA/VISUM is a powerful tool for building digital transportation models. Based on the so-called Four-Step Process with the steps trip generation, trip distribution, modal split, and route assignment, it is possible to simulate future traffic flow and public transport users in relation to socio-demographic developments. It was also used to calculate a traffic-optimised settlement structure as a secondary output (VISEVA+) for the first time. These results may be of use for a further traffic-minimizing spatial development of Hashtgerd New Town. The integration of so-called paratransit services—for example, different taxis types—was a special adaption for using this model in Iran. CO2 Calculation and Evaluation Model A simple tool—Traffic Emission Calculation Tool (TECT)—was developed in the project for the modelling of traffic-generated CO2 emissions. This calculation is based on the integration of information from ArcGis, VISEVA+/VISUM, and The Handbook of Emission Factors for

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Road Transport for Germany, Austria and Switzerland [HBEFA 3.1]. By considering the Iranian car fleet and the combination of traffic situations and vehicle sub-segments from the Handbook (g CO2/km) for each vehicle in every possible traffic situation were calculated by Iranian standards. With this base model, traffic volume and a modal split were calculated to forecast the specific emissions for different scenarios. The tools help to plan the transportation network, and calculate and optimise the traffic-based energy consumption and CO2 emissions of urban structures. They guarantee the realisation of the ambitious sustainability goals of the New Town. The use of these programmes and especially their combination has advantages: · accurate future forecasts through combination and integration of the geographic information system (ArcGIS) and traffic model (VISEVA+/VISUM) that complement each other, · various analysis and modelling possibilities in the Hashtgerd area through development of a dataset, · enabling of multimodal planning, · focused and cost-effective planning process based on/as a result of the analysis. These programmes can easily be used by skilled Iranian researchers and the data and models can be shared with other groups of researchers for their specific use. Modelling Exercise and Results Model Description The transport model that was used in this project consisted of the Four-Step Process as outlined above. In the case of Hashtgerd New Town, the “Dimension Transport and Mobility” of the Young Cities project is working together with the Transportation Planning Department of the Technische Universität Dresden as a subcontractor. Technically, the working steps can be divided into four main phases: 1. Digitalisation and Attributes Line network in GIS format and research, as well as digitalisation and attributes of upper structural data 2. Integration and Set-up of the Transport Model with the Programmes VISEVA+/VISUM (by TU Dresden) The model calculates traffic flow volumes for the following modes of transport: · public transport, · (individual) motorised transport, · taxi system, · pedestrians, and · cyclists. The programme VISEVA+ is used for the first three steps of the modelling process. Since it is the latest programme version and the TU Dresden is directly involved in its development, it was also used to calculate a traffic-optimised settlement structure for the first time as a secondary output. These results were used for a further traffic minimising spatial development of Hashtgerd New Town. The integration of so-called paratransit services— for example, different taxis types—was a special adaptation for using the model in Iran. Besides these additional functions, the result of this step was an origin/destination matrix for the region on the basis of upper traffic cells, and a modal split that is derived from a

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Fig. 14 Test results for the average accumulated daily pedestrian traffic volume generated in 35-ha pilot area [authors]

starting modal split on the basis of data, and certain route cost calculations provided by the Iranian experts. The spatial horizontal integration of the hinterland is realised through so-called cordons that represent the entrance and exit gates of the whole network. The inand outgoing traffic volume was derived from the traffic counts in the revised master plan [Paykadeh Consulting Engineers 2009]. Through the integration of these cordons into the traffic generation calculation, future commuter flows are included in the calculation. 3. Calculation of Future Traffic Flow and Passenger Numbers Using the VISUM programme, the calculation results of the first three phases are based on route cost functions—using a mathematical iteration process—that are incrementally assigned to the line network. The result is the traffic volume for each mode of transport for each of the 3,500 network elements. 4. Reintegration of the Model Results into the GIS Database and Further Analysis Reintegrating the modelling results into GIS shape files enables further analysis as well as a graphical illustration. In Figure 14 •, the result for the average accumulated daily traffic volume inside the 35-ha pilot area is shown as an example. 5. CO2 Calculation Based on the CO2 calculation tool—TECT—the carbon emissions of different transport scenarios can be evaluated.

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Scenarios The focus of the Young Cities project in Hashtgerd New Town is the transportation model used to quantify future traffic flow and public transport users on the basis of certain scenarios with different prerequisites. The main focus is the optimisation of the preliminary public transport approach for New and Old Hashtgerd as well as its supporting soft policies. The second result is a quantification of projected CO2 traffic emissions for each of the 3,500 network elements. The third result is a proposal for a traffic-minimising land-use structure for the future construction phases of Hashtgerd, calculated using the innovative, new calculation software VISEVA+. In order to develop a realistic transportation model, it is of utmost importance to integrate as many influencing variables as possible. For this reason, the integration of Old Hashtgerd, Hoseynabad and (its) further hinterland was the first step. A land-use mosaic for all four elements was digitalised and attributed following the Hashtgerd master plan logic, on the basis of: the revised master plan for the Hashtgerd New Town [Paykadeh Consulting Engineers 2009], satellite images, the master plan of the 35-ha area, and other collected information. The results can be seen in Figure 15 •. On the basis of the Iranian and modified German parameters, the following structural data—which depends on the land use—was calculated for every traffic analysis cell: area, population, households, children, pupils, students, labour force, workplaces, schools and kindergarten (nurseries). One example is the population. Summarising the land-use cells providing “residential” functions, the calculated population for all three settlements is as follows: · New Hashtgerd following revised master plan regulation (final stage), 658,911 inhabitants · Old Hashtgerd (2009), 45,343 inhabitants · Hoseynabad (2009), 3,582 inhabitants

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Town Hashtgerd - Street-Network Categories Fig. 16 Hashtgerd New Town, street network categoriesNew [Döge] LEGEND Network Categories Main Road Main Collector Road Collector Road Access Road Access Way Footway

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The calculated population numbers show that estimations meet the predicted population numbers of the master plan. In a further step, this structural data was assigned to the delineated traffic cells, which are visible in Figure 15 •. The second step was to digitalise the planned and current (Old Hashtgerd and Hoseynabad) street networks, as well as the highways, overland roads, railway, and the future metro line to New Hashtgerd. This step was primarily accomplished by the TU Kartographieverbund. The output consists of a point and a polyline GIS shape with altogether 3,500 network elements. This can be seen in Figure 16 •. Three scenarios (including sub-scenarios with increased bicycle share) were created to evaluate the different measures of the integrated transport concept: · Scenario 0: “zero” public transport service as in the old master plan for 2027 (public transport service on main road only); · Scenario 1: dense public transport service and a higher share of bicycle use; · Scenario 2: scenario 2 with soft policies and traffic-optimised settlement structures through the change in land use. Based on these scenarios, CO2 emissions were calculated with the carbon emissions tool (TECT). The results show that an implementation of the transportation concept designed by Young Cities could reduce the CO2 emissions by about 10%. One of the results, as presented in Figure 17 •, shows that the number of parking lots has a significant influence on vehicle use and CO2 emissions. Figure 18 • shows a comparison of the CO2 balances for private cars in the three scenarios and two sub-scenarios. These results underline the impact of the transport concept on the reduction of carbon emissions.

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Fig. 17 CO2 emissions related to parking lot factor in 35-ha pilot area [Arndt] 0=no parking lots, 0.1=number 2 of parking lots equals 10% of the population, et cetera

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Data Issues The lack of data was the main challenge when mathematical planning tools were used. The municipality institutions in the Hashtgerd New Town are in a work-up phase. A statistical office does not currently exist in the city. Data availability was also poor in other institutions. The biggest problem, however, is data quality. Many datasets have an unclear issue date. As a result, many expert interviews had to be carried out in order to fill in the data gaps. It could then be determined which data could be used and how reliable they were. One very symptomatic example—which also reveals the status of walking and cycling in Iranian planning—is the fact that in Iranian transport statistics, walking as a mean of transportation is not even part of the modal split. Another problematic issue lies in the strong horizontal and

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vertical sectoralisation of Iranian planning and statistic departments. For the elaboration of a complex transportation model, this circumstance led to uncounted preparatory data harmonisation steps in order to reach a sufficient calculation basis.

Conclusion and Outlook: Implementation and Financing In 2012, the comprehensive plan for the 35-ha pilot area, including the transportation concept, was approved by the responsible state commission No. 5. An investor for the realisation of the entire urban concept has already been found. Thus, the implementation of the transportation concept could start in 2014. In February 2014, the Tehran Urban Planning and Research Center has expressed its interest in adapting the Hashtgerd concept in two districts in Tehran. Sustainability should be a main criterion with regard to the location choice, and should be kept in mind from the beginning of the urban and transportation planning as the experiences in the Young Cities project show. References Arndt, W.-H. (2011): “Integrated Transportation Planning for Energy Reduced Traffic”. In: Schäfer, R. et al. (Eds.): Accomplishments and Objectives. Young Cities Research Papers Series. Vol. 02. Berlin 2011 Arndt, W.-H. et al. (2013): CO2-Balance for Buildings and Transportation in Hashtgerd New Town and Tehran Region. Young Cities Research Briefs (Band 13). Berlin 2013 Arndt, W.-H., Döge, N. (2013): “Integrated Transportation Approach for the Shahre Javan Community”. In: PahlWeber et al. (Eds.): Urban Challenges and Urban Design Approaches for Resource-Efficient and Climate-Sensitive Urban Design in the MENA Region. Young Cities Research Paper Series Vol. 5. Berlin 2013 Fanni, Z. (2006): Cities and urbanization in Iran after the Islamic revolution. In: Cities. Vol. 23, Issue 6, pp. 404–11 Farshad, F. (2013): Hashtgerd Stakeholder Analysis, young cities. Analysis of Relevant Actors in the Planning and Development Process of Hashtgerd New Town. Young Cities Research Briefs. Vol. 8. Berlin Fathejalali, A./Khodabakhsh, P./Pakzad, J. (2012): “Study Area, Vision, and Goals”. In: Pahl-Weber et al. (Eds.): The Shahre Javan Community Detailed Plan. Planning for a Climate Responsive and Sustainable Iranian Urban Quarter. Young Cities Research Paper Series. Berlin, pp. 24–31 HBEFA 3.1: http://www.hbefa.net/e/index.html, 25.5.2014 Ministry of Energy Iran, Energy Planning Department (2008): Energy in Iran 2006. Tehran Mezghani, M. (2006): Modern and Efficient Public Transport System. Speech. http://www.mohamedmezghani. com/images/stories/site/Speeches/12Lisbon-October-2006.pdf, 19.03.2014 Ohlenburg, H. et al. (2013): The Shahre Javan Community Detailed Plan—Planning for a Climate Responsive and Sustainable Iranian Urban Quarter. Young Cities Research Paper Series. Vol. 3. Berlin Paykadeh Consulting Engineers (2009): Master plan for Hashtgerd New Town. Theran Paykadeh Consulting Engineers (2011): Comprehesive plan for Hashtgerd New Town. Theran PLS Ramboll Management (Ed.) (2003): Islamic Republic of Iran. World Bank Urban Transport Review PopulationData.net (2013): http://www.populationdata.net – Iran, 12.12.2013 Soltanieh, M. (2010): The report as Iran’s second National Communication to UNFCCC, National Climate Change Office at Department of Environment on behalf of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tehran World Bank (2010): Sectoral Notes: Middle East and North Africa Regional Annual Meetings 2010 Worldstat (2014): http://de.worldstat.info/Asia/Iran, 02.02.2014

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GAUTENG: Street scene in Johannesburg [Zehner]

Jan Tomaschek, Ulrich Fahl

Climate-protection Strategies for the Transport Sector of Gauteng Province, South Africa Background and Challenges Gauteng Province: The Economic Centre of South Africa Gauteng province is the smallest of all nine South African provinces and occupies less than 2% of the total land area of the country. However, the province is home to about one-fifth of the national population, which currently stands at about 11 million people [Stats SA 2011] and generates about one-third of national GDP. Moreover, Gauteng’s population is expected to grow at a rapid rate—even faster than other parts of the country—due to high immigration rates. A population of about 20 million people by 2040 is therefore not an unreasonable prediction [Wehnert et al. 2010]. Gauteng’s economic dominance is a major driver of transport activity and transport-related energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [Figure 1 •]. Consequently, Gauteng was responsible for one-third (about 760 PJ) of the country’s total final energy consumption (FEC) in 2008 [Tomaschek et al. 2012a; IEA 2008]. Taking into account the energy provision, GHG emissions corresponding to the energy consumed in Gauteng were about 123 Mt CO2eq in 2008 [Tomaschek et al. 2012a]. In comparison, GHG emissions produced within the province are calculated at only about 45 Mt CO2eq, since only few capacities for energy provision are located in Gauteng. The transport sector accounts for approximately 36% of the total final energy demand in Gauteng. The GHG emissions caused by Gauteng’s transport sector were around 16.1 Mt CO2eq, which is about 37% of the territorial GHG emissions of Gauteng. However, further emissions are caused by energy provision for the transport sector [Figure 1 •]. These emissions are caused by crude oil refining, but most significantly, by the production of synthetic fuel using Fischer-Tropsch coal-to-liquid (CTL) and gas-to-liquid synthesis, which account for about one-third of the fuel provision for road transport [Tomaschek et al. 2012c; Telsnig et al. 2013]. Gauteng’s transport sector is highly dependent on motorised individual road and freight road transport. Historically, the public transport system was not as well supported by the government, and apartheid city planning caused urban sprawl with people living far away from their workplaces. Public transport was mainly developed for long-distance commuter rail, which was intended to bring the poor population living outside the city centres to their workplaces. Only minimal commuter bus routes were provided to the city centres. An unregulated minibus taxi system has filled the gap created by the lack of an efficient public transport system [Prozzi/Sperling 2002]. About one-third of Gauteng’s population relies on non-motorised transport (NMT); this is predominantly walking. Bicycles, which form part of the transport system in many other megacities, are not widely used as a form of transport in Gauteng [DOT 2003]. However, Gauteng

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Public

Commerce

1% Final energy consumption (top) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 9% (below) caused by Gauteng in 2008. Transport GHG emissions of energy supply and conversion have been allocated to end-use sectors [based on Tomaschek 36% et al. 2012a]

Fig. 1

Public 1%

Transport 36%

758 PJ

Commerce 9%

758 PJ

Industry 45%

Residential 9%

Industry 45%

   

Residential 9%

 

Transport 25%

 

Transport 25%

Residential 15%

Fig. 2

Public 1%

Public 1%

123 Mt CO2eq

 

  Commerce 11%

Commerce 11%

123 Mt CO2eq Industry 48%

 

Residential 15%

Industry (left) Rush hour in Gauteng, (right) a minibus hub in Johannesburg [authors] 48%

 

has recently established a bus rapid transit (BRT) system and a light railway—the Gauteng Rapid Rail Link (Gautrain)—which are intended to provide commuter services on some key routes. Moreover, there has been a steady trend to private motorisation in recent years. For example, at the end of 2001 about 2.3 million vehicles were registered in Gauteng (1.6 million of which were motor cars). By the end of 2009, however, around 3.3 million motorised vehicles were registered in Gauteng, around 69% of these were passenger cars; which is an increase of more than 40% [RTMC 2012]. This trend can also be expressed in the motorisation rate, which

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increased from 253 cars/1,000 people to 302 cars/1,000 people within the same time span. Conversely, Gauteng’s vehicle stock is relatively old, with less than 10% of cars meeting the Euro 4 standard [Tomaschek 2013]. The dominance of the transport sector of Gauteng with regard to GHG emissions, in conjunction with the probability for future growth—due to population growth and increased levels of car ownership—have been identified by local government bodies, who are in search of GHG mitigation options for the transport sector. Many possibilities for GHG mitigation have been identified and tested, including biofuels and alternative vehicle powertrains like electric vehicles. Thus far, however, the investment priorities between the possible options have not yet been defined and interlinkages between the different economic sectors haven’t been analysed for Gauteng in previous studies. Actors and Institutional Context In South Africa, numerous actors are in charge of transport planning and strategy development. Moreover, the responsibility for the development and maintenance of transport infrastructure falls under the auspices of several institutional bodies. The governmental structure in South Africa is subdivided into national, provincial, and local levels. The mission statement for the national Department of Transport (DOT) is: “Lead the development of integrated efficient transport systems by creating a framework of sustainable policies, regulations and implementable models to support government strategies for economic, social and international development” [DOT 2013]. On a provincial level, the Department of Roads and Transport (GPDRT) in Gauteng aims to “improve the mobility and accessibility of Gauteng citizens, particularly the poor, and to develop transport and socioeconomic infrastructure that helps them to participate meaningfully in economic and social activities” [GPG 2013]. The department’s vision is “to develop an integrated, sustainable infrastructure that promotes people-centred, innovative, developmental public works and an accessible, safe and affordable movement of people, goods and services” [GPG 2013]. Furthermore, Gauteng province is divided into three metropolitan municipalities (City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni), and two district municipalities (Sedibeng and West Rand). The three metropolitan municipalities have their own transport departments, which receive their mandate from the provincial department. Moreover, there are subsidiary government departments that mandate interaction with the transport sector. For example, on a national level, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF), the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), and the Department of Energy (DOE) ought to be mentioned. On a provincial level, the Gauteng Department of Agriculture, Rural and Social Development (GDARD) is “responsible for natural resource management and sustainable development in the province” [ibid.]. Its main strategic priorities include agriculture, veterinary services, natural resource management, conservation, environmental planning and impact assessment, and integrated waste management and pollution abatement” [ibid.]. These departments have developed various air-quality strategies and have identified the need for climate protection or for regulations that target the transport sector— for example, proposed blending quotas of biofuels into the fuel mix. Furthermore, there are a multitude of transport organisations that exist in South Africa, only a few of which will be dealt with here. For example, the South African National Roads Agency (SANRAL) is under the authority of the DOT and is responsible for developing, man-

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aging, and maintaining the national road network [SANRAL 2013]. A second example is the South African Road Traffic Management Corporation (RTMC), which aims “to pool powers and resources to eliminate the fragmentation of responsibilities for all aspects of road traffic management across the various levels of government in South Africa, and to bring a professional approach and improved confidence into the entire system” [RTMC 2013]. Visions and Strategic Context Within the three tiers of transport governance in South Africa, numerous strategies and master plans have been developed in recent years. Moreover, climate policies and air-quality strategies have been developed within the other departments—for example, in the DOE or the GDARD. An important transport strategy on the national level is the DOT’s National Land Use Transport Master Plan 2005–2050 (NATMAP). The goal of NATMAP was “ … to develop a dynamic, long-term, sustainable land use /multi-modal transportation systems framework for the development of networks infrastructure facilities, interchange termini facilities and service delivery” [DOT 2008]. In order to implement this framework, available national, provincial, local data, and tools have been evaluated and consolidated. It proposed, for example, the extension of the national road infrastructure, the change of the model subdivision in favour of public transport, and the institutional reorganisation of the rail freight sector [ibid.]. The Public Transport Strategy aims to “accelerate the improvement in public transport by establishing integrated rapid public transport networks (IRPTNs), which will introduce priority rail corridors and bus rapid transit system (BRT) systems in cities” [SAGI 2013]. Johannesburg, was one of the first cities in South Africa to establish a BRT system in preparation for the FIFA World Championship in 2010, the so-called Rea Vaya. The current BRT system in Johannesburg interconnects the central business district (CBD) with high-density areas like Soweto. The full network will be approximately 330 km in length and serve around 80% of the population in Johannesburg. The distance to the nearest station will be a maximum of only 500 m [Rea Vaya 2013]. Other regional municipalities, like the City of Tshwane, are discussing the possibility of implementing a BRT system as well. Furthermore, the Gauteng Rapid Rail Link (Gautrain) interconnects the airport with the CBDs of Johannesburg and Pretoria. National and provincial climate protection was emphasised in the long-term mitigation scenario (LTMS) of the DEA and in the Gauteng Integrated Energy Strategy (GIES) of the Department of Local Government and Housing (DLGH). In the LTMS, scenarios were developed within the scope of the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, the LTMS did not provide in-depth analysis of the transport sector [Winkler 2007]. Within the GIES, pathways to improved sustainable energy use in Gauteng were promoted and Gauteng was identified as the region that would play a leading role in climate protection in South Africa. However, the GIES emphasises neither the transport sector, nor the transport energy supply [DLGH 2010]. Proposed measures for GHG mitigation include: a higher share of biofuel use in the transport sector, decarbonisation of electricity provision through renewable energy, solar water heating in the residential sector, and a general increase in energy efficiency. However, the priorities for the implementation of different measures in all sectors are not always clear. Even the actual mitigation potential of possible measures—in the transport sector, for example, new modes of transport like BRT, new vehicle technologies like electric vehicles, or alternative transport fuels—remains unclear. Even the actual performance of vehicles currently used in Gauteng is not always known.

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Tools for Modelling Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Gas Mitigating Options in Gauteng To quantify transport energy use and transport-related energy emissions, and moreover, to quantitatively evaluate promising measures to mitigate transport and transport-related GHG emissions, two transport tools—TEMT (Transport Emission Modelling Tool) and TIMES-GEECO (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System-Gauteng Energy and Emission Costs Optimisation)— were developed as part of the EnerKey project. EnerKey is an abbreviation for Energy as a Key Element of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng and is part of the broader megacities funding-scheme of the German Ministry of Education and Research [BMBF 2013]. The EnerKey project is a German-South African collaboration, which aims to develop and implement innovative projects in urban energy supply and use, in order to improve the policy-making process to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions in the province, while keeping in mind the demands of society and budget constraints.1 A detailed representation of the two models, their assumptions as well as initial results can be found in several publications [see, for example: Tomaschek 2013; Haasz et al. 2013; Tomaschek et al. 2012b; Kober et al. 2011; Tomaschek 2010; Dobbins et al. 2009; Tomaschek et al. 2009]. The following section gives a short overview of the two tools. The TEMT Transport Emission Model The TEMT emission model was created by TÜV Rhineland to generate real-world emission factors for Gauteng and to visualise spatially transport emissions [Figure 3 •] [Kober et al. 2011]. TEMT operates using Visual Basic code. It is a combination of a transport emission tool based on adjusted European research data on vehicle emissions, and a Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) for visualisation of vehicle travel of the different vehicle types and their specific emissions directly on a map. This software model incorporates emission factors for existing individual vehicles, as well as emission factors for alternative vehicle technologies and fuel use. Four main databases were used as an input for TEMT as listed below, according to Kober et al. [ibid.]: · HBEFA 2.1 and 3.1: The Handbook of Emission Factors for Road Transport for Germany, Switzerland and Austria [Keller et al. 2004; Keller et al. 2010]. The HBEFA database includes emission factors, derived from test results for different vehicles classes such as passenger cars, light- and heavy-duty vehicles, buses, minibuses, and motorcycles. The database distinguishes different traffic situations, road type classes with different vehicular speed ranges. Within the EnerKey Project, the database was extended by including alternative vehicle technologies, like hybrid vehicles or dedicated biofuel engines. · NATIS: National Traffic Information System of South Africa [DOT 2010]. The NATIS database comprises all registered vehicles in South Africa. The database contains information on the type of vehicles, their fuel type (petrol/diesel), engine size, and year of vehicle registration. This database was used for model calibration for the timespan 2007–2010. · MATSim: Multi-Agent Transport Simulation [MATSIM 2013]. MATSim software is used for spatial distribution of vehicle travel. · TIMES-GEECO: TIMES Gauteng Energy and Emission Costs Optimisation is an energy-system model for Gauteng [Tomaschek et al. 2012b]. In this context, it has been used for vehicle fleet information for future years—for example, vehicle activity by mode and technology, transport fuel provision, and emissions—for different scenarios.

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Fig. 3

Modelling approach used in TEMT illustrating the flow of information within the model and the spatial visualisation of data [adapted from Kober et al. 2011]

Dat aPr epar at i on

Ve hi c l eFl e e t NATI S/ TI MESGEEC O

Emi s s i onFa c t or s HBEF A As s i g nme ntba s e don: -e mi s s ons t a nda r d -e ng i nes i z et y peofv e hi c l e -f ue l t y peofv e hi c l e

T r a fficFl owDa t a MATSi m As s i g nme ntoft he HBEF Ac l a s s e st o MATSi ml i nk si n J oha nne s bur g / Ga ut e ng

We i g ht e de mi s s onf a c t orf orat y pi c a l v e hi c l et y pe i nJ oha nne s bur g / Ga ut e ng( e . g . , pa s s e ng e rc a r ) f orpa r t i c ul a rt r a ffics i t ua t i on

Li nkne t wor kf orapa r t i c ul a rt r a ffics i t ua t i on a ndv ol umeofv e hi c l e spe rr oa dl i nk

As s i g nme ntba s e dont hes e l e c t e d t r a ffics i t ua t i onf ore a c hl i nk , v e hi c l ev o l ume smul t i pl i e dby e mi s s i onf a c t or s

Emi s s onsf r om t r a ns por tone a c hr oa dl i nkk g / k m/ da i l y

TI MESGEEC O

GI S

The input data for the modelling was prepared by transforming “raw road network data” in Johannesburg and Gauteng from a tabular format into a shapefile format applying Visual Basic Script, and extrapolating data on vehicle volumes in peak hours in Johannesburg to daily values (ADT). The emission factors from HBEFA database were extracted for every traffic situation—for instance, road type and vehicular speed—for different vehicle types, by possessing different emission concepts for diesel and petrol vehicles. As a result, emission factors for CH4, CO, CO2, HC, NOx, N2O, NH3, NMHC, PM, SO2 pollutants were extracted and adjusted to South African conditions based on the baseline vehicle fleet for Gauteng for the period 2007–2009 in the NATIS vehicle registration database [Kober et al. 2011]. The TIMES-GEECO Energy System Model TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System) is a flexible toolkit for analysing the energy system on a technology-rich basis. The model can be applied to different regions or time horizons and can be used for analysing the whole energy system or only parts of it. The basic rationale of the model is minimising total system costs under perfect foresight using linear optimisation, whereas further variants of the modelling framework exist. TIMES can be used to analyse the impacts of policy measures, how to achieve policy goals, or to assess the future role of energy technologies (e.g., vehicle technologies) or energy carriers (e.g., alternative fuels). Its particular strength is inter alia the detailed representation of energy technologies

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Fig. 4

The Reference Energy System (RES) of Gauteng (simplification) demonstrated the analysed sectors, as well as the interconnection and interlinkages between them. [Tomaschek 2013]

under consideration of inter-dependencies in the energy system or the detailed representation of results: energy flows, new capacities, emissions, costs. The TIMES-GEECO energy system model is an application of the TIMES model generator for Gauteng and South Africa. The data provided by the TEMT modelling—namely, adjusted emission factors for road transport in Gauteng—is then used in the TIMES-GEECO energy-system model, which was developed at the IER, University of Stuttgart. The model can be used to identify least-cost measures to achieve the climate and energy-efficiency goals of the region by integrating proposed energy policies and technologies within a defined technical and socio-economic framework. Obviously, this integration includes the transport sector, as well as the other components of the energy system. The consideration of the entire energy system has the advantage that limited resources cannot separately be allocated to more than one sector. Moreover, interdependencies in the energy system are taken into account. To illustrate: while vehicle use in Gauteng causes GHG emissions though fuel combustion, a significant additional portion of GHG emissions is related to fuel provision. This fact is crucial, as transport fuel provision is currently, not solely based on crude oil refining, but also on synthetic fuels derived from coal and natural gas. The resulting life-cycle emissions from these production routes can amount to approximately three-fold the emissions of fuel combustion in vehicles [Tomaschek et al. 2012c]. In the TIMES-GECCO model, we have included these emissions, as well as the associated costs for energy provision. The Reference Energy System (RES) for the TIMES-GEECO model is illustrated in an aggregated manner in Figure 4 •. The left side shows the different sources for primary energy for both regions modelled—i.e., Gauteng and the rest of South Africa. In the centre of the figure, the energy conversion sectors are depicted—i.e., electricity provision and fuel provision. As in

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the other sectors, both technologies currently applied—for instance, the previously mentioned production of synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas—as well as alternative technologies have been analysed in terms and their techno-economic and environmental characteristics and have been implemented into the TIMES-GEECO model [Tomaschek 2013]. These technologies include, for example, first-generation biofuels from energy crops or waste cooking oil, second-generation biofuels derived from the conversion of lignocellulosic biomass (e.g., wood), methane gas from a variety of sources (e.g., natural gas or biomass), as well as other fuel alternatives like hydrogen provision via electrolysis, biomass gasification, natural gas reforming, or via coal gasification and upgrading. A detailed description of all alternative technologies for transport energy provision in Gauteng can be found in [ibid.]. In the TIMES-GEECO model, the transport sector includes numerous transport modes, which are characteristic for Gauteng (as well as other megacity regions all over the world, for example in China or South America): · non-motorised transport · walking · bicycles · individual passenger transport · motorcycles · passenger cars · sport utility vehicles (SUV) · public transport · minibus taxis · buses (small and big buses dependent on engine size) · BRT · passenger rail · Gautrain (light railway) · freight transport · light-duty vehicles (LDV) · heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) · freight rail · aviation For each of these modes, a set of alternative propulsion technologies can be applied [Fig. 5 •]. These have been characterised by their economic, ecologic, and technical parameters, as well as by typical usage patterns over the time horizon of 2007 till 2040. Analysed propulsion technologies include, for example, hybrid-electric vehicles where different degrees of hybridisation can be distinguished—for example, mild hybrids that are not capable of “pure” electric driving, or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) that not only function using electric motors over long range, but, moreover, can source their electricity from the grid. Vehicles using compressed natural gas (CNG) allow for the application of methane gas in the transport sector, whereas vehicles running on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) source their fuel from crude-oil refining processes. Moreover, dedicated biofuel vehicles allow for higher shares of biofuels into the overall transport system. For hydrogen use, fuel-cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEV), as well as internal combustion engines (ICE), can be used. The latter are less expensive, but have a lower energy efficiency [Tomaschek 2013]. Depending on the driving cycle—i.e., urban, highway, rural roads—each technology has specific advantages and disadvantages. For example, electric vehicles have the highest efficiency

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Fig. 5 Overview of the vehicle technologies considered in TIMES-GEECO [Tomaschek 2013]

Fig. 6

Summary of the socio-economic framework for the analysed scenarios [author’s assumptions based on IEA 2011; Wehnert et al. 2010] Driver

Assumptions for time horizon 2007-2040

Energy Carrier Prices

Based on the “current policies scenario” of the World Energy Outlook 2011 [IEA 2011] (145 USD2009 in 2035).

Population

1.8%/a growth; population nearly doubles between 2007 and 2040 (183%)

Households

Average size decreases; number of households more than doubles (215%) 2007-2040

GDP

Annual average growth of 4.1% (2007-2040); share of primary sector of GDP shrinks to a quarter of its size, secondary decreases little and tertiary sector increases to a share of 75%

Employment

Increase of 182%; halving of employment in primary sector, nearly doubling in secondary and more than doubling in tertiary sector

Electrification

All formal households electrified by 2040; informal households unelectrified share of 40% in 2040

improvement in urban driving conditions and the lowest on highways compared with vehicles that use internal combustion engines. These aspects have been explicitly modelled and implemented in TIMES-GEECO [ibid.]. Additionally, each process is modelled in a way that allows for the blending of alternative fuels like synthetic fuels and biofuels; the latter of which are limited due to technical issues in the vehicles. TIMES-GEECO derives the vehicle kilometres driven by the technology applied and the fuel consumed by each mode, based on a least-cost optimisation for different scenarios. The re-

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sults from TIMES-GEECO can then be incorporated in the TEMT model and spatially presented using a GIS (geographic information system) programme. To do so, the data assignment is created based on matching emission concept of the vehicles, engine size type, and fuel type of the TIMES-GEECO results for the entire vehicle fleet, with single vehicles represented in TEMT. Thus, for each road link, the average daily speed was derived through the analysis of volume delay functions. As a result, each link was assigned a specific average speed category—for instance, 60 km/h. Thereafter, an assignment of classes of traffic situations on the road network in Gauteng was made. The classification was made accordingly to the predefined classes for each traffic condition made for emission factors in the HBEFA database. Subsequently, weighted emission factors were assigned to every vehicle class for the appropriate traffic situation on each link. Finally, the average daily traffic volume for each particular vehicular class on each road link was multiplied by the assigned weighted emission factors [Kober et al. 2011].

Implementation and Outlook Using TIMES-GEECO, a scenario analysis was conducted in order to identify robust measures and reach provincial targets at minimum cost. A “robust measure” means that it occurs in most future scenarios, independently from uncertain parameters—for example, crude oil price development, population growth. The scenario framework was developed for the period from 2007 to 2040, to evaluate the implications of different future development pathways [Figure 6 •]. As a baseline, a possible future for Gauteng has been analysed, which not only describes and analyses a “business-as-usual” development, but also incorporates policies that are currently being discussed and are likely to be implemented in the future [Tomaschek et al. 2012b]. These policies include targets for biofuel use as well as installation targets for solar water heating (SWH). This scenario is referred to as “Implemented Policies” or “IPO” scenario for short. The principle of GHG mitigation is the main aspect of all alternative scenarios currently modelled, as defined by the provincial and national visions to become low-carbon economies. As a result, these scenarios show the feasibility of proposed measures and ultimately show how to reach mitigation targets with minimum costs. Furthermore, the changes in the energy demand and structure of the energy system compared to the reference scenario (IPO) can be observed [ibid.]. Low-carbon Province Scenarios for Gauteng The results of the scenario analysis with the TIMES-GEECO model showed that in the reference scenario, the energy demand and GHG emissions in Gauteng are likely to increase significantly until 2040—i.e., by more than 60% to about 200 Mt CO2eq. This is caused by two main factors: the expected increase in population and GDP, and the demographic shift and increase in personal wealth. The total final energy consumption (FEC) will increase significantly in all sectors under implemented policies. For example, in the transport and residential sector, the calculated increase in FEC is 86% and 164% respectively. Moreover, under the conditions of the implemented policies scenario, the energy supply will still be largely based on coal and fossil fuels. Direct GHG emissions through fuel combustion in the transport sector increase from about 16.1 Mt CO2eq (2007) to about 23.1 Mt CO2eq (2040) under the conditions of the implemented policies scenario, which is equivalent to an increase of more than 40% [Figure 7 •, above]. The vehicle

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Fig. 7

Greenhouse gas emissions by sector under “implemented policies” for 2007−2040 (top) and Gauteng vehicle activity by technology in the IPO and in the LRS scenario (below) [authors]

technology used in the transport sector in the implemented policies scenario (IPO) by 2040 is still likely to be primarily based on internal combustion engines, although some alternative vehicles like hybrid-electric vehicles or vehicle using CNG-engines will be more widespread by then. In order to counter this development, policymakers will have to intervene. When one compares all of the mitigation scenarios, the share of alternative powertrains in the transport sector increases most significantly in the LRS scenario [Figure 7 •, below]. Hybrid vehicles are initially used for the modes with long annual mileages and high proportions of urban driving— such as public buses, the BRT, and minibuses. E85 vehicles—powered by fuel with 85% ethanol—are applied to accommodate the higher supply of ethanol in the system, which is in the LRS scenario based primarily on sugarcane. Moreover, the CNG vehicles in the LRS scenario use a different energy source than in IPO. While under implemented policies, methane gas is sourced from coal gasification; in the mitigation scenarios natural gas is used as an alternative fuel. Additionally, some gas is provided via upgrading gas from landfill and sewage sites. Additional changes in the fuel supply can be identified, which do not require alternative vehicle powertrains, such as the substitution of fossil synthetic fuels with ones from biomass—i.e., BTL—and biodiesel from waste cooking oil. Further cost-efficient measures for increasing energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector of Gauteng, which were identified by the modelling process are, for example, stricter emission regulations for older or used vehicles that will significantly increase the local air quality.

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Fig. 8

Illustration of the application of the TEMT model to the city of Johannesburg. On the left, CO2 emissions from road transport in 2040 are shown for the IPO scenario. The results for the LRS scenario for the same year are shown in the figure on the right. [TÜV 2013]

Consequently, in the LRS scenario, direct GHG emissions in the transport sector are reduced by 2.9 Mt CO2eq (-13%) by 2040 in comparison to the implemented policies scenario. Total GHG emissions that are attributable to Gauteng would thus be reduced by 128.8 Mt CO2eq (-63%). This would mainly be based on changing the means of electricity provision, but also due to the changes in transport energy-supply. In the LRS scenarios, the change of the fleet into alternative technologies indicates not only a general reduction of GHG emissions, but especially in the highly frequented highways and urban roads [Figure 8 •]. From Research to Implementation In order to transfer the research outcomes based on our modelling into the policymaking process, the ELPG (EnerKey Long-term Perspective Group) was initiated by the EnerKey programme. The ELPG aims at integrating the various stakeholder perspectives and wishes into the project and this study, and ensured that research is framed according to the local demand. It is a regular meeting of stakeholders of Gauteng government, industries, and academics. These are, for example, representatives from the Gauteng provincial Government, national and provincial Departments of Transport, the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), local NGOs, and of course universities [Figure 9 •, left]. The link between research activities and political process was strengthened in numerous meetings during the project [see, for example, EnerKey 2013b; 2013c]. The ELPG stated that Gauteng should aim at a development that is low-carbon, payable, and ensures the security of supply. The transport sector was herein identified as an important field of action [EnerKey 2013a]. Energy system modelling was one tool used in the EnerKey project to identify such measures under a least-cost perspective, while considering the complexity of energy planning

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Fig. 9

Determining the socio-economic framework for Gauteng in the ELPG (left). The Liliesleaf Trust Conference (Rivonia, November 2010) promoted the transition to a sustainable low-carbon system and linked the research activities to the political process. [authors]

and the numerous interlinkages within energy systems. Based on the iterative principles of the EnerKey programme, preliminary results and ideas for a low-carbon development were presented to stakeholders and government officials on at least a half-year basis, and adaptations made for best matching to local aims and targets. An important milestone for transferring the research results into policy recommendations was the Liliesleaf Trust Conference in Rivonia in November 2010 [Figure 9 •, right]. There it was decided to develop an “Action Plan” for Gauteng that includes specific actions for Gauteng to become a low carbon province and to be a forerunner for climate protection in South Africa. The process was concluded in the “Energy and Climate Protection Conference—From Policy to Implementation” on 11 April 2013 [EnerKey 2013d]. There, all of the partners from the EnerKey consortium discussed the purpose and the findings of the “EnerKey-Liliesleaf Action Plan” with government representatives—such as Member of the Executive Council (MEC) Qedani Mahlangu—local researchers, and institutional bodies, to provide recommendations for Gauteng Province to become a low-carbon and economically viable city region with a sustainable energy system and an efficient climate protection strategy. These recommendations will be evidence-based from EnerKey research, and will be targeted at the Gauteng Premier. Initial results of the “EnerKey Liliesleaf Action Plan” are summarised below for the transport sector. In order to promote these measures, the Gauteng provincial government could start implementing biofuels or hybrid electric vehicles for their own fleet and for public transport services. Biodiesel from waste cooking oil would be an opportunity for intermediate implementation and could be locally produced as the technology is proven and available. The government could secure waste oil supply by interdicting the feedstock use as animal food. Moreover, blending quotas can ensure the marketability of the fuels. Communication campaigns could also raise awareness and support for such fuels. In the long run, significant GHG mitigation potential lies in second-generation biofuels such as ethanol, or synthetic fuels produced from lignocellulosic feedstock. As South Africa is currently the world market leader in producing synthetic fuels from coal and natural gas, the government should support research and development in using biogenic feedstock for that processes—i.e., biomass-to-liquids process. Hybrid vehicles could, on the other hand, initially be implemented for government vehicles, especially for those with long annual mileages such as public buses.

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Conclusion and Outlook The presented tools—the energy system model TIMES-GEECO and the TEMT emission modelling tool—have been proven as valuable option for evaluating policies and measures to increase energy efficiency and for mitigating GHG emissions not only in the transport sector. Both models have been regularly presented in workshops and conferences and numerous training courses have been given in order to train and support local stakeholders and researchers in interpreting model results, as well as in using the tools as part of the ELPG and the EnerKey-process. The models developed are based on well-known methods that are used internationally. However, our research has shown that adaptations to these tools are necessary in order to reflect the conditions of developing countries in order to comply with the (limited) data availability. On the other hand, the model structures we developed can be used for transferring them to other developing regions all over the world. The measures proposed here will be described in detail and compiled in the “EnerKey Liliesleaf Action Plan”, which will be given to the ELPG and the Gauteng Provincial government and thus feed into the policymaking process.  

References

BMBF (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung) (2013): Future Megacities—Megastädte von morgen. http://future-megacities.org, 20.01.2013 DLGH (Department of Local Government and Housing) (2010): Gauteng Integrated Energy Strategy http://www. dlgh.gpg.gov.za/Documents/Energy%20Stratergy/GIESPart1Part5FinalWeb25Mar10%5B1%5D.pdf, 07.03.2010 Dobbins, A./Tomaschek, J./Özdemir, E. et al. (2009): Role of energy models in local energy planning to support the roll-out of solar water heaters in Gauteng. South Africa - Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium (UPE 8) of the International Urban Planning and Environment Association DOT (Department of Transport South Africa) (2003): The first South African National Household Travel Survey. Pretoria DOT (Department of Transport South Africa) (2008): National Transport Master Plan 2005–2050 (NATMAP 2050). Pretoria DOT (Department of Transport South Africa) (2010): National Traffic Information System of South Africa (NATIS). Pretoria DOT (Department of Transport South Africa) (2013): Department of Transport South Africa—About Us. http://www. transport.gov.za/Home/AboutUs.aspx, 20.01.2013 EnerKey (2013a): Energy as a Key Element of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng (EnerKey): The EnerKey long term perspective group (ELPG). http://www.enerkey.info/index.php/Stakeholders-and-Socio-economic-Drivers/enerkey-long-term-perspective-group.html, 15.01.2012 EnerKey (2013b): Energy as a Key Element of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng (EnerKey): The EnerKey Liliesleaf Action Plan, Colloquium, Challenges of moving to a low carbon and energy efficient future for Gauteng province. Liliesleaf Trust Conference Centre Rivonia, 3 November 2010 http:// www.enerkey.info/images/stories/intern/module2/enerkey_minutes_liliesleaf_2010_11_03.pdf, 15.05.2013 EnerKey (2013c): Energy as a Key Element of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng (EnerKey): Presentations from Workshops and Training Courses. http://www.enerkey.info/index.php/ Presentations/presentations.html, 15.05.2013 EnerKey (2013d): Energy as a Key Element of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng (EnerKey): Report of the Energy and Climate Protection Conference. From Policy to Implementation: A Sustainable Energy Strategy for Gauteng and South African Cities—The Liliesleaf Action Plan GPG (2013): Gauteng Provincial Government (GPG)-Departments. http://www.gautengonline.gov.za/Government/ Pages/Departments.aspx, 20.01.2013 Haasz, T./Tomaschek, J./Fahl, U. (2013): South Africa’s iron and steel industry – An evaluation of energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials in Gauteng Province. Proceedings of the 16th IUAPPA World Clean Air Conference, Cape Town IEA (International Energy Agency) (2008): Energy Balance for South Africa 2008. Paris IEA (International Energy Agency) (2011): World Energy Outlook 2011. Paris

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Kober, R./Lozynskyy, Y./Brosthaus, J. (2011): Emission Inventory Mobile Sources for Gauteng, South Africa—Tool for Scenario Calculations and Input for Dispersion Modelling. TÜV Rheinland Immissionsschutz und Energiesysteme, Carbon Services Keller, M./de Haan, P./Knörr, W./Hausberger, S./Steven, H. (2004): Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren des Straßenverkehrs 2.1, Dokumentation. http://www.hbefa.net/e/documents/HBEFA21_Dokumentation.pdf, 20.12.2012 Keller, M./de Haan, P./Knörr, W./Hausberger, S./Steven, H. (2010): Handbuch Emissionsfaktoren des Straßenverkehrs 3.1, Dokumentation. http://www.hbefa.net/e/index.html, 20.12.2012 MATSIM (2013): Multi-Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim). http://www.matsim.org, 07.09.2013 Prozzi, P.J./Sperling, D. (2002): Transportation in Developing Countries. Greenhouse Gas Scenarios for South Africa. Arlington Rea Vaya (2013): Rea Vaya—Company website. http://www.reavaya.org.za, 23.11.2012 RTMC (Road Traffic Management Corporation) (2012): Historic Motor Vehicle Population & Estimated Total Annual Distance Travelled. http://www.rtmc.co.za/RTMC/Files/Traffic_Reports/Website%20Vehicle%20Population.xls, 20.02.2013 RTMC (Road Traffic Management Corporation) (2013): Road Traffic Management Corporation. http://www.rtmc. co.za/RTMC/Default.jsp, 14.07.2012 SAGI (2013): South African Government Information—Transport. http://www.info.gov.za/aboutsa/transport.htm, 13.10.2012 SANRAL (2013): The South African National Roads Agency. www.nra.co.za, 13.10.2012 Stats SA (Statistics South Africa) (2011): Gross Domestic Product, Statistical release P0441. http://www.statssa. gov.za/publications/P0441/P04413rdQuarter2011.pdf, 03.04.2012 Telsnig, T./Tomaschek, J./Özdemir, E.D. et al. (2013): “Assessment of selected CCS technologies in electricity and synthetic fuel production for CO2 mitigation in South Africa”. In: Energy Policy (accepted, in press) Tomaschek J. (2010): “The role of the Transport Sector for Reducing CO2-Emissions in Gauteng Province, South Africa—An analysis using the energy system Model TIMES”. In: Konferenzband “Future Megacities in Balance”, Young Researchers’ Symposium in Essen. Tomaschek, J. (2013): Long-term optimization of the transport sector to addressing greenhouse gas reduction targets under rapid growth—Application of an energy system model for Gauteng province, South Africa. Forschungsbericht 114. Stuttgart, IER Tomaschek, J./Dobbins, A./Özdemir, E./Fahl, U. (2009): Analysis of incentives using an energy system model for Solar Water Heater installation in Gauteng. Proceedings of the ISES Solar World Congress 2009. Johannesburg Tomaschek, J./Dobbins, A./Haasz, T./Fahl, U. (2012a): Energy related greenhouse gas inventory and emission balance for Gauteng: 2007–2009. Tomaschek, J./Dobbins, A./Haasz, T./Fahl, U. (2012b): A regional TIMES model for application in Gauteng. Proceedings of the 31st International Energy Workshop (IEW) in Cape Town Tomaschek, J./Özdemir, E./Fahl, U./Eltrop, L. (2012c): “Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Abatement Costs of Biofuel Production in South Africa”. In: Global Change Biology Bioenergy. Volume 4, Issue 6, pp. 799–810 TÜV (2013): TÜV Rheinland Immissionsschutz und Energiesysteme, Carbon Services. Cologne Wehnert, T./Knoll, M./Rupp, J. (2010): Socio-Economic Framework for 2010 set of EnerKey Energy Scenarios— Summary of Key Figures. http://www.enerkey.info/images/stories/intern/module2/Documents/enerkey%20 m2%20scenario%20assumptions%202010_may%202011.pdf, 10.04.2012 Winkler, H. (2007) (Ed.): Long Term Mitigation Scenarios. Energy Research Centre (ERC). Cape Town Note 1 Further information about the EnerKey project can be found at www.enerkey.info

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HEFEI: Mopeds in Hefei (Zehner)

Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Xiaoxu Bei, Kain Glensor, Hanna Hüging, Miriam Müller

Metrasys, Sustainable Mobility for Megacities—Traffic Management and Low-carbon Transport for Hefei, China Challenges Hefei—A Rapidly Growing Megacity The rapid increase in motorisation in Hefei and other Chinese cities is driving growth in energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Also, growing motorisation significantly affects the quality of life in the city through pollution, noise, and an increased number of car-related accidents [Schipper et al. 2000]. The Metrasys Project focuses on the Chinese city of Hefei, the capital of Anhui Province, one of the numerous, and growing in number, “second-tier” cities (typically provincial capitals with 2 to 7 million inhabitants). It is hoped that the findings from Hefei may be transferable to other second-tier cities. Hefei is located in the east of China between the Yangtze and the Huai Rivers, an advantageous location connecting central and eastern China [Figure 1 •]. The city has an area of 7,266 km², of which 640 km² are urbanised, inhabited by 5.3 million people, 2.7 million (2005) in the urban area. Hefei is an important centre for science and education in China, with more than thirty universities, including the USTC, the Hefei University of Technology, and Anhui University, and more than 200 research institutes. Furthermore, Hefei is one of seven cities participating in the World Science and Technology Cities Union (WSTCU), and is active in international science and technology exchanges and cooperation. Hefei City is on the verge of megacity status and is likely to pass this threshold within the next decade, if current growth rates continue [Figure 2 •]. China’s economy is growing rapidly; by the middle of this century, China is expected to become the world’s largest economy in terms of GDP [Goldman Sachs 2010]. Hefei is part of this rapid economic transformation, and as such, new opportunities will emerge for the city, coupled with increasing pressure on transport, energy demand, and natural resources. This is well illustrated by Figure 3 •, which shows the substantial expansion of the city between 1949 and 2009. Transport Problems and Challenges Driven by economic and population growth, global personal and freight transport demand is forecasted to double by 2050, increasing demand for oil and raising its price [Shell 2008]. Hefei has not avoided this development, with the city’s rapid population growth and economic development causing increased demand for both personal and freight transport, which is

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Fig. 1

(left) Location of Hefei in China [Statistical Yearbook of China 2008] (right) Agglomeration Hefei [Hefei City Planning Bureau 2011]

Fig. 2

Hefei’s expected urban population in 2030 [Statistical Bureau of Hefei 2010] District

Population (000s)

Land area (km2)

500

490

Dianbu

79−155

85−150

Shangpai

70−140

80−140

Central urban area

Nangang

50−80

55−80

Shuangdun

82−130

85−130

Fig. 3

Hefei’s urban development, 1949−2009 [authors]

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Fig. 4

Transport CO2 emissions and distribution in Hefei (BAU), 2001–2030 [authors]

forecasted to continue for next two decades. This demand increase and the growing number of vehicles in the city are accompanied by substantially increasing greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants [Figure 4 •]. While new and improved vehicle technologies will have a role to play in improving transport systems, the International Energy Agency (IEA) considers it highly likely that the internal combustion engine (conventional or hybridised) will continue to dominate the market for many years to come [IEA 2008]. Thus, alternatively powered vehicles’ contribution to any improvements is likely to be small, and other additional measures will be required. Effectively managing the growth in transport demand and maximising the sector’s efficiency will require an integrated concept that addresses energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, harmful emissions, congestion, pressure on infrastructure, noise, safety (accidents), urban amenity and quality of life, and access and mobility. Governance Structures Hefei’s urban transport administration system is co-administered by different departments [China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Centre 2008], with scattered and partially overlapping

responsibilities between the departments. Transport planning is regarded as subordinate to urban planning in the municipal administration and falls within the remit of the Mayor. The planning process is not carried out in a detailed or scientific manner, and transport planning institutes are excluded from it. Many urban planners and transport experts believe that these are the main causes for the discrepancy between transport plans and actual transport demand in the city [Hefei City Planning and Design Institute 2008]. A state-owned company, Hefei Public Transportation Group Co. Ltd., is responsible for public transport planning and operation. As public transport planning must be reported to the Construction Commission and approved by the municipal government, the decision-making power remains with the municipal government. The municipality, however, has not yet formulated clear principles for bus route planning [Hefei Public Transport Group Co. Ltd. 2008]. On one hand, this current “top-down” political and planning system has the advantage of allowing for long-term planning for sustainable mobility and a high implementation rate. On the other hand, the system could also be an obstacle to sustainable urban transport, if the

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small group of powerful municipal leaders are disinclined to implement sustainable urban transport measures, especially as external experts and practitioners lack the administrative power and the financial clout to influence the city’s planning.

Solutions: Improving Hefei’s Transport System The following section describes the results of the Metrasys project for Hefei. Firstly, the initial step of developing the various scenarios for Hefei’s traffic system, along with modelling them and the “business-as-usual” (BAU) case is described. Secondly, the technical solutions developed are presented, followed by the suggested policy implementations in addition and complimentary to the technical measures. Environmental Impact Assessment with Traffic Emissions Model In order to support decision-makers in assessing the environmental impacts of traffic control strategies, a traffic emission and air pollution dispersion simulation was developed, consisting of a Traffic Emissions Model (TEM) and an Air Pollution Immission Model (AIM). The TEM calculates the volume of substances and gases emitted by cars, while the AIM analyses the generation, dispersion, and chemical transformation of gaseous air pollutants and different aerosols. Using both models, the simulation is able to reproduce the most frequently occurring smog situations. Scenario Development Managing transport demand and maximising transport efficiency requires an integrated concept that addresses energy demand, CO2 and harmful emissions, noise, safety, congestion, access and mobility, urban amenity, and quality of life. As part of the Metrasys Project, a set of qualitative and quantitative scenarios (BAU and alternatives) were developed for the future (2030) vehicle fleet, overall transport demand, modal split, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions. The qualitative element of the scenarios describes the key drivers for and indicators of developments in Hefei, and their impact on transport and energy demand in the city. The quantitative scenarios consisted of an assessment of current and forecasted (for 2030) traffic flows, congestion, and local air pollutant concentrations. Based upon current data on, amongst others, trends in population and economic growth, motorisation and modal split, along with planned transport infrastructure projects and policy, the scenarios predict changes in key transport indicators that can be used to provide feedback on municipal planning decisions. The modelling of the Metrasys Project also shows that under a BAU scenario, the modal share of non-motorised and public transport will decrease substantially from 72% at present, to less than 50%, with the share of private car ownership doubling by the year 2030 [Figure 5 •], leading to significantly increased traffic congestion [Figure 6 •]. The size and composition of the vehicle fleet is a vital factor for its fuel consumption and hence greenhouse gas and other harmful emissions. The development of the number of vehicles is shown in Figure 7 •.

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118903384 116693438 — 2209945 —

9361771

—

Person kilometres travelled

Vehicle kilometres travelled

—

17325000

112187994 —

3320808 4993856

63558740 —

512307 3146895

24859314

2883312 Trips

2467823

19.17% 28.82% 2.96% 18.16% 14.24% 16.64% Per cent

14408170

100%

79433656 77995806 — 1437851 — — vehicle kilometres travelled

—

7090701 Person kilometres travelled

Year 2030

11602498

75327714 —

2057734 3038520

41361206 —

336087 2013863

15286017

2185416 Trips

1970878

17.74% 26.19% 2.90% 17.36% 16.99% 18.84% Year 2020

Per cent

— vehicle kilometres travelled

11589791

100%

19862959 19029816 — 833144

7635726

—

2037114 2811188 Trips

Person kilometres travelled

—

46582754

9266605 1045875

— 19725404

1832279 218699

— 8682924

2.36% 14.26% 21.98% 30.34% Per cent

Year 2010

1321451

11.29% 19.77%

Car Public Transit Taxi Electric Bicycle Bicycle Walk Mode

10538699

100%

Modal share projections for Hefei, 2010−2030 [authors]

Total

Fig. 5

Traffic Management in Megacities of Tomorrow The maximum capacity of the road network is statically—i.e., if the network is not modified— fixed. Travel demand, however, varies significantly throughout the day, typically peaking in mid-morning and late afternoon. Traffic flow can therefore be improved either statically or dynamically. Static improvement involves simply expanding road network capacity with more and/or better roads. This is the strategy employed in Hefei to date. Dynamic improvement involves implementing so-called traffic management (technology-based traffic information and management) systems, which help to shift traffic away from congested times or areas. As part of this project, two specific measures have been examined and implemented for/in Hefei: “floating car data” and “intersection monitoring”, as described below.

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Fig. 6

Traffic congestion in 2010 (left) and 2030 (right) [authors]

Fig. 7

Vehicle fleet development under the BAU scenario [Statistical Bureau of Hefei 2010; Lah et al. 2011] Vehicle type Passenger cars Electric cars

Current

2030 200,000

> 1,800,000

—

4,000

E-bikes

10,000

14,000

Conv. motorbikes

46,190

0

Diesel HGVs

17,600

1,700,000

Taxis

8,855

12,750

Busses

2,896

5,232

Traffic Management via Floating Car Data Floating Car Data (FCD) describes a system wherein specially equipped vehicles (floating cars, e.g., taxis) travelling in city traffic use GPS to constantly measure their current location, speed, and direction—especially on selected roads of interest—and wirelessly transmit this information to a central server. In Hefei, these data are provided by 600 private taxis, 200 Hefei traffic-police cars, and 1,200 construction vehicles. In addition to the general, sometimes sparse, data provided by the floating cars, comprehensive—almost every car—traffic flow data are also collected at specific intersections. The combination of these two data types allows the city’s traffic situation to be well represented by the system. Finally, a terminal is situated at a local police station where special traffic information—such as accidents, incidents, events, weather, and congestion information—is collated. The data from these three sources are sent to a server in the Hefei Traffic Control Centre. There, each source’s level of service is calculated [see Sohr et al. 2013] before being fused at street-segment level, enabling the current traffic situation to be qualified and visualised. After beeing processed, the information is put to a multitude of uses. Firstly, the information is stored on a central database as a reference for decision-makers for all technical and planning work. The information is also broadcasted to variable message signs and made available to the public via the Internet. Most interestingly for Metrasys, however, the information is also broadcasted to users via radio signals. With this in mind, the Metrasys project

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Fig. 8

Metrasys service chain [authors]

Fig. 9a (left) Hefei intersection camera: Detected traffic objects [authors] Fig. 9b (right) Hefei intersection camera: Average velocities and left-turning vehicles’ path variation [authors]

developed a special GPS navigation device, which is able to receive the traffic information via radio and use it to navigate users in Hefei around congested streets. To make the greatest possible use of the FCD, the Metrasys project developed an onboard unit (OBU), comparable to a conventional GPS navigation device, but with a radio to receive the FCD system’s traffic information signals, allowing the OBU to guide users around congested streets. The system in Hefei could serve as an archetype for traffic information collection, dissemination, and usage in China. The architecture of the system, apart from the addition of the mandatory supervisory body in China, is also transferable elsewhere—anywhere multiple information sources are collated then redistributed to users. Intersection Monitoring The increasing traffic demand and high percentage of bicycles in Hefei demand complex design and steering of the city’s intersections. Over a three-to-six month period, intersections were monitored with digital video cameras in order to study the behaviour of various user

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types. The system records, analyses, and predicts the motion of traffic objects and is able to foresee accidents and/or dangerous situations. In such cases, the video and track data of the situation/accident are archived for later study. With this information, it is hoped to be able to improve the flow of traffic through the city’s junctions, using better traffic light algorithms and/or better intersection design. Policy Advice on Complimentary Policy Measures The Hefei city government aims to improve traffic flows, reduce congestion, and improve the transport systems’ efficiency. Its strategy to date has been to increase the static capacity of the road network—i.e., build more and wider roads. This, like purely technological measures as described above, is likely to be effective in improving traffic flow, et cetera [ECMT 2007; Lah et al. 2012], at least initially. Such improvements, however, increase driving’s attractiveness, which may induce additional demand (rebound effects) [Fuji/Taniguchi 2006; Goodwin 2008], which, if not countered, can cause any gains to be undermined—or in the worst case even reversed [Ruzzenenti/Basosi 2008]. In a policy environment such as China, where the link between discretionary income and travel demand is still very high [Wang et al. 2012], and fuel prices are subsidised, the rebound effect is estimated to be very high (95%) [ibid.]. Because of this, the Metrasys project advised the city government on complementary measures, which aim to reduce demand for individual motorised transport and foster the shift towards more efficient modes—such as public transport, walking, and cycling. This advice was provided to the city government in several meetings and workshops and followed up by a working paper [Lah et al. 2012]. A selection of the measures for which advice was provided is described in the following sections. Road User Charging and Congestion Charging The measures involve charging users for road use. Charges can be differentiated by time or geographical area, an obvious example of which is imposing a (higher) charge to enter the central city at peak times. It is a particularly attractive concept if a FCD system is already in place— like the one developed in Hefei as part of the Metrasys project—because this system could be used as the basis for introducing real-time variable pricing systems [De Palma/Lindsey 2009]. A congestion charging system has been operating in Singapore for several decades—using OBUs since the nineteen-nineties—with others implemented more recently in London and Stockholm. A 2009 study focused on the introduction of such a system for the old central city of Beijing, finding that such a system would reduce the number of cars entering the 2nd Ring Road by ≈10% during peak hours [Liu et al. 2009]. It was stressed, however, that congestion charging should be implemented according to the regional circumstances and emphasised that complementary measures, such as improved public transport, are required to provide affordable and reliable alternatives to private cars [ibid.]. Public Transport A reliable and affordable public transport system is a key element of a sustainable urban transport system. Public transport not only contributes to lower energy consumption and emissions, but also reduces congestion, improves traffic flows, and reduces travel times [OECD/ECMT 2007]. Chinese public transport is typically more than twice as energy efficient as individual motorised transport, therefore preserving and enhancing urban public transport’s

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modal share is highly desirable in its own right [Knörr/Dünnebeil 2008], along with its contribution to reducing road congestion. Public transport use can be encouraged by increasing its capacity, reliability, and affordability, integrating public transport, walking and cycling infrastructure, and park & ride (P&R) facilities. Walking and Cycling A substantial share of urban transport can be completed on foot or by bicycle, as the majority of journeys in cities are shorter than 5 km [Moudon/Lee 2003]—distances particularly suitable for pedestrians or cyclists. Walking and cycling have a multitude of advantages: they are cheap for users and authorities alike, have attendant health benefits for users, emit no harmful or greenhouse gasses, and do not consume fossil fuels [Santos et al. 2010]. Despite these advantages, and despite their requisite infrastructure taking up little space, they are often neglected by transport planners. Providing and maintaining pedestrians and cycling infrastructure is crucial to making these modes more attractive. Also, addressing safety concerns—which keep many people from cycling [Noland 1995]—through the provision of specific safety-improving infrastructure, such as separate crossing signals, cycle lanes, and buffers between car and cycle lanes [Santos et al. 2010] will improve the safety, and thus attractiveness, of cycling. Integrated Planning The “integrated land-use planning” approach focused on increasing urban land-use density, increasing mixed-use zones, and improving public transport and non-motorised transport infrastructure [Hymel et al. 2010]. Combined, these measures can reduce travel distances, enhance the role of non-motorised modes, and improve public transport’s accessibility and efficiency [Kenworthy/Laube 1996]. In rapidly growing cities like Hefei, local authorities can strongly influence future travel patterns; today’s land-use planning decisions can ease traffic management in the future. Guidelines for Transport Management, Transport Planning, and Urban Block Design In discussions with the Chinese project partners, advice was sought on innovative and sustainable transport planning. To provide this advice, a set of guidelines was developed to provide an overview of options for transport management, transport planning, and urban block design. Using examples from Europe, the US, Asia, and Australia, basic transport planning and traffic-management related opportunities and measures were listed and explained in guideline handbooks. These examples reveal the role traffic management and transport planning can play in the innovative, sustainable development of Hefei. The traffic management guideline and best-practice manual explains basic traffic management measures in four categories: · financial (e.g., road tolls and parking management), · regulatory (e.g., access restriction, speed restriction zones, and HOV (High-Occupancy Vehicle) lanes), · traffic-information (e.g., queue-warning systems, journey time displays, and P&R), and · general management measures (e.g., traffic light control, priority for local public transportation, and car and bike-sharing).

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Fig. 10 Guideline handbook covers [authors]

Fig. 11 The Metrasys guidelines [authors]

The transport planning guideline and best-practice manual provides creative solutions for pedestrian, cycle, and car traffic, as well as public transport. The basic size requirement for pedestrian traffic and communal areas, as well as the opportunities for crossings and shared spaces are all addressed in descriptive articles and images. Different types of bicycle lanes and their design around bus stops and at intersections are also described. Example pedestrian crossings are described based on given levels of pedestrians, cyclists, the numbers of parked cars, the importance of local public transportation, the level of vehicle traffic, and the width of the road. Regarding public transport, the issues addressed include bus lanes, types of stops and their configuration, bus stations, P&R facilities, and priority traffic-light signalling.

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The urban block design guideline describes seven sustainable approaches for planning and constructing the cities of the future. Examples from Europe and the US are used to reveal development structures and block sizes (a major influence on sustainable mobility development), and compare urban networks. Block sizes in Chinese urban structures were analysed and a possible urban design was proposed, using the PingGuo Community in Beijing as an example. The guidelines were presented at various workshops in Hefei and submitted to the head of the city’s planning authority. Independent to Metrasys, the Hefei City Planning Bureau planned to produce separate guidelines for various areas such as traffic management, transport planning, and urban building, which would then be used for the further development of the city. The Chinese and German partners worked together to convince the Planning Bureau to integrate the Metrasys guidelines into the official guidelines. These efforts bore fruit, as in mid-2013, the Hefei City Planning Bureau and the Hefei Planning and Design Institute produced their guidelines with the title “Hefei Green Traffic Planning and Design Guidelines”, including essential elements of the Metrasys guidelines. Financing Sustainable Urban Transport To support the implementation of a sustainable urban mobility policy package, the Metrasys project also provided guidance on international climate finance options to the Hefei Planning Bureau. The paper developed on this provides an introduction to climate finance and describes several funds in detail, which can be accessed by local governments to implement sustainable transport projects. For each fund, the access criteria and the application procedure are described, and examples of transport projects that have been funded are given. Sustainable transport project can receive support from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF). In the past, forty-six projects, which included components on sustainable transport and urban systems, have been funded through GEF worldwide. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) established under the Kyoto Protocol provides the option to raise financial resources through certified emission reductions. However, the CDM procedure is very complex and time consuming. Especially for transport projects, it is challenging to fulfil all of the related requirements, which is why only very few transport projects receive financial support via the CDM. There are also several multilateral institutions that established climate funds accessible for local transport projects. For China, this is primarily the Asian Development Bank (ADB) with its Climate Change Fund and its Clean Energy Fund. Bilateral funds are offered by Germany and Japan. In Germany, the International Climate Initiative (ICI) offers financial support for low-carbon projects. Currently, a project on transport demand management in Beijing receives financial support. New climate finance options might come up in the near future, as in the UNFCCC negotiations, new mechanisms to engage developing countries in mitigation options are discussed. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are relatively new concepts that might receive a stronger link to financial support in future. The various options for international climate finance can reduce the potentially higher implementation costs of transport projects that reduce GHG emissions. However, climate finance resources are rather small compared to domestic funding, foreign direct investments, or official development aid. Climate finance is to be seen as complementary funding source that can facilitate the implementation of projects or measures that might otherwise not be implemented. In theory, many climate funds are accessible by local authorities. In practice,

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however, it is very difficult for cities to access some funding sources without support by the national government or external experts. New options to obtain climate finance that are emerging—for instance, within the NAMA concept—might be more accessible for local transport projects. Even though financial benefits might be limited, seeking climate finance during the transport planning process can encourage local practitioners to rethink old transport planning principles and to include sustainability and GHG mitigation criteria.

Conclusion The Metrasys project advised the Hefei municipal government throughout the entire policy cycle and technology uptake process. The main points include: · assessing the current status of urban transport, policy, and finance frameworks in the city, · developing the scenarios for future traffic congestion, greenhouse gas, and harmful emissions, · developing and implementing a traffic management system based on floating car data (FCD), · providing policy and planning advice through guidelines and policy papers, and · providing advice on financing options for the city’s planned sustainable urban mobility measures. The cooperation with the city administration and local industry partners was based on a long-standing partnership, which allowed open and focused discussions. Vital for the success of the project was the focus on the city’s specific needs regarding the solutions presented for consideration, presented in a form most useful to city officials. It is of course too early to say if and how the project impacted on future developments in the city. The scenarios developed for this project at least indicate that if the policy measures proposed and technology solutions implemented in the project have the potential to make a substantial positive contribution to air quality, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions in the city and may also contribute to improved access and road safety. References China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Centre (2008): Sustainable Transport Development in Chinese Cities: Challenges and Options. Beijing De Palma, A./Lindsey, R. (2009): Traffic congestion pricing methods and technologies. Ecole Polytechnique. Palaiseau ECMT (2007): Cutting Transport CO2 Emissions: What Progress? http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/ Pub/pdf/07CuttingCO2.pdf, 24.03.2014 Fujii, S./Taniguchi, A. (2006): “Determinants of the Effectiveness of Travel Feedback Programs-a Review of Communicative Mobility Management Measures for Changing Travel Behaviour in Japan”. In: Transport Policy 13 (5), pp. 339–48 Goldman Sachs (2010): BRICs Monthly. New York Goodwin, P. (2008): Policy Incentives to Change Behaviour in Passenger Transport. OECD International Transport Forum, Leipzig, May 2008. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/Topics/Workshops/WS2Goodwin.pdf, 24.03.2014 Hefei City Planning and Design Institute (2008): personal communication. Hefei City Planning Bureau (2011): Hefei City Planning and Transportation, Hefei Hefei Public Transport Group Co. Ltd (2008): personal communication. Hymel, K.M./Small, K.A./Dender, K.V. (2010): “Induced Demand and Rebound Effects in Road Transport”. In: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 44 (10), pp. 1220–41

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IEA (2008): Energy Technology Perspectives. Paris Kenworthy, J.R./Laube, F.B. (1996): “Automobile dependence in cities: An international comparison of urban transport and land use patterns with implications for sustainability”. In: Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 16(4–6), pp. 279–308 Knörr, W./Dünnebeil, F. (2008): Transport in China: Energy Consumption and Emissions of Different Transport Modes. Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung. Heidelberg Lah, O./Li, Z./Xu, L. (2011): Hefei 2030, scenarios for transport energy consumption in a Megacity of Tomorrow. Metrasys Working Paper, Wuppertal. http://www.metrasys.de/medien/document/METRASYS_Hefei_2030_ Transport_in_a_Megacity_of_Tomorrow.pdf, 24.03.2014 Lah, O., Müller, M., Hüging, H., Schäfer-Sparenberg, C., Sohr, A., Bei, X. (2012): Traffic management in the context of sustainable urban transport. Metrasys Working Paper, Wuppertal. http://www.metrasys.de/medien/document/METRASYS-working-paper-sustainable-traffic-management.pdf, 24.03.2014 Liu, Z./Li, Chunyan/Li, Cheng (2009): “Traffic Impact Analysis of Congestion Charge in Mega Cities”. In: Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 9 (6) (December), pp. 57–62 Moudon, A.V./Lee, C. (2003): “Walking and bicycling: An evaluation of environmental audit instruments”. In: American Journal of Health Promotion, 18(1), pp. 21–37 Noland, R.B. (1995): “Perceived risk and modal choice: Risk compensation in transportation systems”. In: Accident Analysis & Prevention, 27(4), pp. 503–21 OECD/ECMT (2007): Managing urban traffic congestion. Paris Portney, P.R./Parry, I.W.H./Gruenspecht, H.K./Harrington, W (2003): “Policy Watch: The Economics of Fuel Economy Standards”. In: Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17 (4), pp. 203–17 Ruzzenenti, F./Basosi, R. (2008): “The Rebound Effect: An Evolutionary Perspective”. In: Ecological Economics, 67 (4), pp. 526–37 Santos, G./Behrendt, H./Teytelboym, A. (2010): “Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport”. In: Research in Transportation Economics, 28(1), pp. 46–91 Shell (2008): Shell Energy Scenarios. Amsterdam Schipper, L./Marie-Lilliu, C./Lewis-Davis, G. (2000): “Rapid Motorization in the Largest Countries in Asia: Implication for Oil, Carbon Dioxide, and Transportation”. In: Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy 10 (2), pp. 153–69 Statistical Bureau of Hefei (2010): Hefei Statistical Yearbook 2010. China Statistics Press Sohr, A./Bei, X./Zou, J./Wu, J./Wang, J. (2013): Traffic level of service generation from video detection system using cluster analysis. 13th World Conference on Transport Research (WCTR), 15-18 Jul. 2013, Rio de Janeiro United Nations (2008); Statistical Yearbook of China 2008. Concept: M. Kracht, S. Bayer, M. Ruiz Lorbacher, Cartography: M. Krambach Wang, Mingxi/Wang, Mingrong/Wang, S. (2012): “Optimal Investment and Uncertainty on China’s Carbon Emission Abatement”. In: Energy Policy, 41 (0) (February), pp. 871–77 Xu, L. (2009): Analysis of Financing Framework for China’s Sustainable Urban Transportation. Master’s thesis, Albert-Ludwig University Freiburg

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Wulf-Holger Arndt, Xiaoxu Bei, Günter Emberger, Ulrich Fahl, Angela Jain, Oliver Lah, Alexander Sohr, Jan Tomaschek

Mobility and Transportation Concepts for Sustainable Transportation in Future Megacities This chapter describes comparisons of the projects’ results and gives some overall conclusions on the aspects of stakeholder analysis, challenges and strategies, models and planning tools as well as on the transferability of sustainable urban mobility solutions.

Summary Challenges, Strategies, and Measures In all of the examined cities, very similar challenges were identified—in particular, rapid population growth, high levels of migration from rural to urban areas, and the fast growth of individual motorised traffic driven by increasing wealth. For example, the growth rates for cars are between 15 to 18% per year in the megacity regions, compared to growth rates below 2% per year in Europe or the USA.1 These high growth rates are the main driver of present and future transport problems in these cities. In addition to the directly related problems of energy consumption, road safety, noise, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use is a major issue for road transport [Figure 1 •]. Economic development and rapid urbanisation are the key driving factors behind the growth in transport demand, in particular in emerging countries. The creation of new workplaces combined with major investments in infrastructure—transport, but also in production and retail sector, housing, water supply, wastewater, energy supply, education—cause immense migration streams from the countryside towards these megacity regions, and thus form the key drivers of population growth in these regions. Looking at the different cities, not only are the challenges they face are very similar, but also the strategies to overcome these challenges—formulated by the authorities of these megacities—are more or less identical, at least with regard to some basics: all cities have analysed their status quo and realised that car-related development will be not a solution to tackle their future problems. In their transport-related strategic documents,2 they have addressed their challenges. The formulated objectives to reduce car transport make clear that the cities wish to create less carbon-intensive future transport systems. With regard to implementation of policies and measures, one can see that the strategies are also very similar in all megacity regions. Suggested first steps for implementations include: major increase of road capacity (ring roads, fly overs, urban motorways, et cetera); improvements of motorised traffic flows through traffic management systems; technological end of pipe solutions, such as less fuel consumption for individual motor vehicles (e.g., hybrids). Only in one of the investigated megacities—Gauteng—currently uses pricing instruments such as toll charges. However, those systems offer the opportunity to limit private car use. In a second step

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usually ten or more years later, the strategies propose improving the public transport system. Interesting here is that the suggested public transport systems are primarily based on very expensive technologies—such as subway or sky-train systems—with the constraint that they should not compete with the street space reserved for cars. This suggested order of implementation (first an increasing of road capacity and then improving of public transport) is similar to the solutions applied in Western societies some decades ago. The only difference in these emerging economies is the pace and magnitude of the developments, which are much higher and faster than we have ever experienced in the past. As an alternative approach in some cities, an improvement of the existing bus system was established as Bus Rapid Transport (BRT). These BRT systems—for example, in Tehran-Karaj, Gauteng, HCMC—increased the public transport quality. But the capacities are not sufficient in many cases. In the case of the Tehran-Karaj metropolitan area, not all parts of the system has dedicated/segregated bus lanes and is therefore also affected by congestion. Based on the spatial structure of segregation (urban sprawl) and social conditions (high share of low income groups), the so-called paratransit services are highly important in the mass transport in many developing and emerging countries. These services, offered mostly by private car owners, are sometimes formal (taxis, line taxis, minivans), and sometimes informal but tolerated by the officials (tuc tuc, rickshaws, trip sharing). The services do not often meet high standards and have some traffic safety problems, but they are a demand-responsive transport offer. Despite their weaknesses, paratransit services seem to be an adapted system in developing and emerging countries. An improvement of service quality and vehicle standards is needed. The suggested policies—the order and magnitude of the implementation—are by no means sufficient to reach the highlighted objectives of the megacities examined. The provision and investment of (road) infrastructure will further increase the attractiveness of these cities. This will change the existing land use, leading to urban sprawl that will result in higher population growth and in immigration flows from the rural areas. In turn, this will put more pressure on the (road) infrastructure, leading to more provision and investment in (road) infrastructure. This vicious circle is the driving force behind the megacities around the world;

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and the traditional transport planning strategies cannot solve these problems—on the contrary, they are the cause for the misery these cities face today and will face in future. It should be noted that the improvement/provision of car-related infrastructure influences the mid- and long-term settlement structures—as we have seen in the US and Europe—and cannot be reversed easily. One interesting approach that we became aware of in the Future Megacity projects was in Iran. To cope with the rapid population growth and in-migration flows in the existing cities, the concept of “New Towns” with an integrated urban and transportation approach was developed (already in the mid-nineteen-eighties). New towns should relieve the migration pressure on existing settlements/cities and provide the chance to start city development from scratch, based on state-of-the-art city and land-use planning. Although the idea sounds convincing and promising, it seems that the traditional approaches that low densities have— such as car-oriented transport system, separation of workplace and housing locations—nevertheless could not be overcome. The principle of generating a functional mix—housing, workplaces, recreation facilities in close vicinity—within the newly planned and built cities must be ensured through careful planning and monitoring of its realisation. The suggested transport systems in these new towns should be based on an affordable, environmentally friendly public mass transport system, which has a dense network—stop distance approximately 300 m—and an attractive service interval of less than fifteen minutes. To further support the functioning of such a settlement structure, the parking places per premises have to be fixed on a low level of 0.2 parking places per household—or below—and should be located at the same distance as the public transport stops.

Stakeholder and Actors It can be positively summarised that all of the cities and metropolitan regions described in this book aim at integrated planning approaches on two levels: first, they have started treating transport and urban development as an entity; and second, they recognise that a multimodal transport system is more efficient and sustainable than prioritising a solely car-orientated transport system. Governments and transport planners are mostly aware of the problems that the massive growth of motorised transport causes, and they are trying to strengthen public transport systems. Still, the focus of action predominantly lies on the planning and realisation of big infrastructure projects, which are not only costly but often more politically prestigious than functional; whereas, means of non-motorised transport are becoming increasingly marginalised. The first step towards integrated planning, however, requires communication and coordination of different departments (building/construction, urban planning, road, and public transport, et cetera) and even different administrative levels (central, state, province, city, et cetera), which is often difficult to achieve. In most cases, urban planning and transport planning are dealt with in different administrative bodies, in some cases also under different ministries. And even transport planning is sometimes split into different departments and operational utilities—such as road transport (public buses, private transport, freight transport) and public transport (rail bound systems). Consequently, in all of the cities, there is a lack of coordination between relevant departments and administrative levels.

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Moreover, studies of the institutional settings show that hardly any feedback mechanisms exist to coordinate the current and future demand, planning, building, and finally the operational services. This is assumed to be one of the main reasons for the enormous gap between existing plans (transport and/or urban development), existing demand, and executed implementation. The tendency towards top-down decision-making contributes to this gap. Decisions taken on higher levels—for instance, at the state level—often result in ambitious plans without potential for realisation, because they do not include enough knowledge of the real situation on the ground. Those kinds of decisions also prevent planning from being adapted according to the actual demand. In addition to missing coordination mechanisms, non-motorised transport—the cheapest and cleanest means of transportation—lacks formal representation in politics and administration and hence has no lobby besides activist groups. Tehran-Karaj Similar to the other cities, the Young Cities project identified a wide range of stakeholders and responsible authorities in the Tehran-Karaj region. On the national level, the New Towns Development Cooperation (NTDC) is responsible for the master plan of New Towns, as in Hashtgerd. This organisation’s main task is to identify and buy suitable land, then design and implement the New Town. The final responsibility belongs to the Ministry of Building and Housing. The results will be reviewed by the Urbanism and Architecture Committee of Excellence. In a later stage of implementation, a municipality will be established. In case a New Town exceeds 10,000 inhabitants, a city council has to be established in addition to the existing municipality. Besides these actors, NGOs exist in the civil sector. The development master plan is a highly complex work, because it has to integrate the interests of all these stakeholders. On the other hand, participation of inhabitants is weak because citizens’ involvement is not a formal procedure in the planning process. Ho Chi Minh City In Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the Transport Master Plan has been developed in collaboration with relevant city authority departments. Still it has to be mentioned that similar to other cities, in HCMC there are many institutions that should have worked together to generate a sound and integrated transport and land-use development strategy. Unfortunately, it was not an explicit research task of the HCMC megacity project to explore in detail the relationships and interdependencies of the involved stakeholder/institutions in the decision-making process regarding the transport strategy in HCMC. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that this gap of knowledge be filled in through future research activities. The knowledge gained from this exercise should then be used to recommend which institutions should work together to generate a coherent and comprehensive strategy document towards a sustainable future for HCMC. Hyderabad To apply future-oriented planning, not just an energy-efficient, low-carbon, and citizens-centric approach is needed. Innovation in the organisational structure and dynamics of decision-making, planning, and building are equally important. A good example is the Unified

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Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA) in Hyderabad, where the authorities are trying to coordinate inter- and transdisciplinary knowledge. UMTA functions as a working group where all relevant stakeholders for traffic and transport planning meet regularly and try to solve today’s and tomorrow’s problems in an integrated manner. In order to improve such instruments, the needs of less powerful groups (users of non-motorised transport modes) should also be taken into account. Only then, can the transport system finally fulfil the requirements of sustainability. Gauteng Gauteng Province recently published its twenty-five-year integrated transport master plan, which identified the need for a more integrative transport system and envisions a transformation of the current structures to sustainability and efficiency. The long-term perspective group of the EnerKey project (ELPG) joined representative stakeholders and tried to enable a close link between research and implementation. The knowledge transferred through conferences, workshops, and scientific publications within the EnerKey project aimed at more informed policymaking and helped to achieve the province’s visions for an integrative approach and a cost-efficient GHG-reduction strategy in Gauteng. The need for a continuous knowledge transfer has also been acknowledged by establishing a direct information exchange with politicians on the local, regional, and national levels. Hefei Hefei’s urban transport administration system is co-administered by various different departments, with scattered and partially overlapping responsibilities between the departments. Transport planning is regarded as subordinate to urban planning and falls within the remit of the Mayor; transport-planning institutes are excluded from the planning process. A state-owned company, Hefei Public Transportation Group Co. Ltd., is responsible for public transport planning and operation. As public transport planning must be reported to the Construction Commission and approved by the municipal government, the decision-making power remains with the municipal government. This current ‘top-down’ political and planning system may be able to facilitate long-term planning for sustainable mobility and a high implementation rate. But it can also be an obstacle to sustainable urban transport if the small group of powerful municipal leaders is disinclined to implement sustainable urban transport measures.

Models and Planning Tools The areas presented in the case studies have in common many characteristics of developing countries or countries in transition, such as rapid socio-economic growth, a tendency towards increasing motorised transport, and thus rising energy consumption and emissions. These include greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, and N2O, which might globally affect climate change, as well as pollutant emissions—for example, particle matter, NOx—which mainly affect the quality of life in the area of emissions, particularly in megacities. The consequences of highly urbanised and motorised cities, in conjunction with insufficient transport planning

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can be seen in major metropolitan areas all around the world—for instance, Mexico City, Gauteng, and Delhi. In order to provide a basis for rational transport planning and to allow for emission mitigation, several tools have been developed in the previously presented research projects, as part of the broader megacity research programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The necessity of applying models is evident when looking at the difficulties in analysing the complex structures within the real world, the impracticability or impossibility in conducting experiments in a real-life system, the associated costs, as well as the long-running nature of infrastructure projects that might last for decades or even longer. A model, thus, allows for a simplified representation of a real system—as part of the real world—that enables the analysis of possible future developments of a system on the one hand and the effects of measures to alter this development on the other. The transport tools developed within the different research projects include travel demand, emissions, dispersion, and air pollution models, land-use and transport planning tools, as well as energy system models. Most applications tend to analyse a longer time span, such as twenty or thirty years into the future. The scenario-analysis technique is a concept that has been used in most of the presented case studies in this paper. As future development remains uncertain for many parameters—such as population, economic growth, or energy carrier prices—scenario analysis is a tool to compare different possible developments. A scenario can describe a set of assumptions for a possible future. Comparing different future scenarios thus allows one to identify the measures that, independent from uncertainties, will lead to the desired development—for example, GHG mitigation. Based on the different initial circumstances in the study areas, but also as a result of the available data, the developed models differ. Obviously, a single model cannot fulfil all of the aspects that are relevant and that should ideally be considered. For example, the models can be classified, according to their: · spatial resolution—ranging from single-point representations to those including all major road networks, · sectoral coverage—transport sector only or entire energy system, · methodology—optimisation or simulation, · mathematical approach—linear programming, system dynamics, four-step transport modelling, to name a few, · purpose—travel demand modelling, emission modelling, air quality modelling, identifying technology options, · time horizon—most applications are long term (> twenty years into the future), · time resolution—sub-annual time resolution (e.g., peak hour) is characteristic for all models, where applicable. What the models, presented in this publication, have in common is that they are adaptations or further developments of tools originally designed for analysis of system developments in industrialised countries. However, several restrictions were identified that make the adaptations of available tools necessary. For example, the socio-economic framework conditions in a megacity are significantly different from those of industrialised countries, as high growth rates can be expected for population and economic output, which usually goes hand in hand with increasing transport demand and related environmental implications. Moreover, the availability of data has been identified as a major issue for tool application in megacity regions. In Europe, for example, detailed statistics are available—such as vehicle

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registrations and vehicle fleet characteristics, fuel sales, or mobility panels—but many of these data are not available for the analysed study regions. Moreover, available data are often found to be unreliable, outdated, or inconsistent. For that reason, existing tools or newly developed models had to be adjusted so that they generated the desired information. For example, two new models were developed in the EnerKey project: the TEMT Emission modelling tool generates emission factors for different driving situations and vehicle technologies, which can then be fed into the TIMES-GEECO energy system model to allow for analysis of the future fleet composition in different scenarios. This information can then be inserted into the TEMT model to be spatially analysed. Another example for using models to overcome data-gaps can be found in the Young Cities project and the Transport Emission Calculation Tool (TECT). It deals with many default data and assumptions. The algorithm is flexible and works with a low data requirement level. Though, of course, the validity of the results depends on the quality of the input data. In conclusion, despite comparable characteristics, problems, and aims in the analysed megacities, a broad range of different tools was developed according to both the research questions and data availability. As each of these tools has its specific strengths and weaknesses, it would be worthwhile to investigate the interregional transferability between the different megacities. It is clear that most tools—such as traffic emissions, land-use, travel demand, and energy system models—would be perfectly compatible in order to attain even more detailed results, thus allowing for the adaptation of the development for climate-protection and GHG mitigation in rapidly emerging megacities.

Transferability of Sustainable Urban Mobility Solutions General Terms of Transferability Transport is unique among the energy end-use sectors: it relies almost entirely (94%) on petroleum products; it is a major contributor to GHG emissions and local air pollution; road safety is a major concern; and traffic congestion incurs substantial economic costs. This multitude of challenges also creates a huge potential for synergies and co-benefits between policy objectives to enable transport to contribute to sustainable development [Kahn Ribeiro et al. 2012]. A range of transport policies and measures has been identified in this book that has the potential to meet multiple goals for sustainability for megacities of tomorrow. This chapter will assess briefly the transferability of these measures from places where they have proven to be successful, to other countries and cities where different socio-economic and governance structures may create a substantially different policy environment. While there is a wealth of information about the need for more sustainable transport, and policies and practices that can be implemented, progress in this area varies greatly between countries. There is a generalised assumption that political and institutional frameworks can and will implement best-practice policies as long as technical information is provided—for example, through a case study. This is overly optimistic and lacks conceptual and empirical sophistication, in particular considering the socio-economic and institutional conditions in many countries. There is a critical difference between policy potential, and the extent to which this potential can be utilised.

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Through a number of projects and studies, the methodological frameworks of transferability assessments for sustainable transport solutions has advanced quite substantially in recent years [see, for example, Stead/De Jong/Reinholde 2006; Bray/Taylor/Scrafton 2011; Marsden/ Stead 2011; Macário/Marques 2008]. It has been recognised in previous studies that no significant predictions can be made as to whether measures may be transferable, if this is simply by comparing the cities where the measures have already been implemented (the origin cities) with the cities that would like to implement the measures (the targets cities). Transferability depends on the characteristics of measures themselves in relation to the target city. This means that often there is no alternative to testing the transferability and the feasibility of implementation for each measure to the specific social, economic, environmental, and political conditions of the target city and adapt accordingly. Several attempts have been made to develop a methodology for city authorities to follow when considering the transferability of transport policy measures [LEDA 2000; Marsden/Stead 2011; Macário/Marques 2008]. Several methodological frameworks have been developed, which aim to identify the conditions for successful transferability. The framework outlined below highlights the essential steps of the transferability process, from the identification of the issues and context, to the selection of the measures, and the packaging to the implementation [Figure 3 •]. There are a number of resources on the design and implementation of sustainable transport solutions available for city officials. In the European context, in particular, platforms such as ELTIS or CIVITAS are very popular as knowledge bases. However, these knowledge platforms only provide a very high-level snapshot on the measure and its implementation. The adaptation of policies to the specific conditions in a city is vital for the success of measures and their effectiveness once implemented. An important element to the policy development and implementation process is the involvement of key stakeholders, which include all relevant departments of the city authority, public transport operators, regional authority, business and environmental groups, trade unions, employer organisations, and various transport user groups [Emberger et al. 2008]. There has already been a substantial exchange and transfer of urban freight transport policy mechanisms within Europe, facilitated by a number of EU projects and networks such as Polis and CIVITAS. This experience can provide some useful insights into the process of transferring polices from the countries featured in this publication. However, technological,

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economic, political, social, and cultural conditions are very diverse, so the approach needs to adapt to fit the purpose. Work to transfer urban transport policies from one place to another will have to identify the condition under which a specific measure or package of measure operates and adjust and adapt them to local conditions. Transferability of Sustainable Urban Mobility Solutions in the Future Megacities Projects Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Within the Future Megacity research project Ho Chi Minh City, a series of issues—such as urban flooding, urban microclimate, urban energy, and urban transport—were addressed and investigated. Additionally, present and past developments in these sectors were explored, and mitigation and adaptation strategies that take into account the future climate change in the region of South Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh City were developed. For all of the above-mentioned issues, the key findings, key recommendations, and the possibility of potential transferability of the found solutions can be found without charge in so-called handbooks [see Handbooks Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh]. The focus here is on transport; therefore only transferability issues related to transport systems will be elaborated on. As shown in the Ho Chi Minh City section of this volume, the objectives of the Future Megacity research project Ho Chi Minh City work package, “Urban Transport”, were to identify the present and future transport challenges Ho Chi Minh City faces, to explore and assess the currently implemented transport strategies (HCMC Transport Master Plan), and to investigate and develop potential mitigation and adaptation strategies to climate change. To be able to fulfil these goals, the University of Technology Vienna developed the landuse and transport interaction model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator), which was set up to HCMC circumstances and used to simulate the future development of the transport system for the next thirty years. Simulation models, such as MARS, are very useful tools for showing decision-makers and other stakeholders the potential impacts of a series of transport-related policy instruments, and provide objective quantitative information for decision-making. MARS is a tool, which is able to predict the impacts of combinations of policies related to transport and land-use and delivers information regarding transport—including travel times, congestion levels, mode split distribution—as well as information regarding population development, household location, and workplace location development over a certain time period. MARS is flexible enough to be applied in European cities, as well as in cities in South East Asia and South America—as it was already proven in a series of world wide applications [Pfaffenbichler/Emberger et al. 2010]. In general, only a limited number of transport policy instruments exist that can be applied in cities around the world to mitigate transport problems. For example: road capacity adaptation (increase/decrease); pricing instruments, such as road taxes, cordon charging, parking fees; public transport measures, such as public transport capacity adaptations, frequency changes, fare adaptations and policy instruments to improve the infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists. The challenge is now to identify which policy combination out of the policy instruments mentioned above delivers the best outcome regarding the city-specific circumstances and the city-specific objectives—for instance, minimising of CO2 emissions, minimising travel—of the underlying city. MARS was especially designed to provide answers to these kinds of multidimensional optimisation problems decision-makers all over the world try to

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solve. MARS can thus be used to explore the potential “policy space” a city has available and points out “optimal” policy combinations, which could then be explored in more detail by using more detailed transport models, such as traditional, commercially available four-stage transport models. The past and present applications of MARS worldwide have proven the usability of MARS in different region and contexts, and Vienna University of Technology will extend this type of research to further cities and regions around to globe, to support cities in identifying transport strategies that will deliver more environmentally friendly and economically efficient transport systems for a sustainable future. Strategic Transport Planning Tool for Hyderabad, India As mentioned in the Hyderabad section of this volume, the “Strategic Transport Planning Tool” was developed within the research project to enable transport planners to design a resilient and energy-efficient but overall sustainable transport network. Research showed that there is growing awareness in India about the negative impacts of increasing motorised individual transport on social, ecological, and economic spheres of Indian cities. To tackle this problem, the Indian Government in 2006 launched a policy framework—the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP)—that focuses on “moving people not vehicles” and provides guidelines and toolkits to support the implementation of the policy. However, the implementation process is slow in India. On one hand, this is due to the fact that there is a lack of professional transport planners who are familiar with the concept of and suitable measures for sustainable transport planning. On the other hand, this is because no standardised methodologies exist in India to specifically quantify environmental or climate change impacts in an early planning stage yet (ex ante) in order to take them into account when designing transport master plans. Ex ante project appraisal or assessment is a widely used method in transport planning. Hence, the project approach was to customise existing methods to Indian conditions and requirements. Additionally, these methods were enhanced to also cater also for adaptation planning, not just mitigation planning. The test application of the tool within the scope of case studies—carried out by Indian partners for Hyderabad—showed that the tool is suitable to design-resilient and sustainable transport networks. Details of the tool and case studies are given in the Hyderabad section of this volume. The focus here is the assessment of the extent to which the project results can be transferred to other cities. Given the fact that the tool fills an existing gap within the guidelines that support the implementation of the NUTP, the potential that it will be used in other cities is judged high. The documentation of the tool in a user-friendly manual will also support the transfer. But what might particularly foster the transfer of the tool is that it is part of a capacity building programme on “sustainable transport planning” (see Hyderabad section of this volume for details). As this programme was designed and implemented with the Indian research partner—National Institute of Technology Warangal (NITW)—it was ensured that future transport planners will be exposed to the concept of sustainable transport planning, as well as the tools and methods available to support the planning process. NITW is also one of five centres of excellence for urban transport and therefore in charge of training professional planners. As a result, this capacity development is not restricted to students, but reaches out to planners already working in the field. Hence, the prospect that they will use the tools and methods developed within the Hyderabad project in other Indian cities is high.

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Comprehensive Urban Plan for Hashtgerd New Town, Iran The Young Cities project has developed an integrated concept for sustainable New Towns. The revision of the previous master plan integrated all of the urban aspects’ so-called dimensions. The final comprehensive plan includes sustainable approaches in urban planning, urban design, landscape planning, water provision, infrastructures, architecture, et cetera. The dimension “Transportation and Mobility” has a strong dependency on urban design and land use. In 2012, the comprehensive plan for the 35-ha pilot area was approved by the responsible state commission No. 5. This plan has become a masterpiece for other Iranian New Towns; but not only for New Towns. The City of Tehran is going to adapt the Hashtgerd concept for two districts in this Iranian Megacity. This adaptation would be a way to transfer the Young Cities ideas to other cities (“Old Cities”). Hence, because the urban conditions are similar in the MENA region, the Young Cities approach is also transferable to cities there. Projects regarding an adaptation for Egyptian cities were discussed in several workshops. The first pilot city will be New Aswan in South Egypt. In the work package of the dimension “Transportation and Mobility”, a guideline was created for a Local Public Transport Plan (LPTP). The use of a LPTP solves the problem of lacking coordination between the level of the Urban Transportation Master Plan and the level of public transport operators in the Iranian urban public transport planning system. The LPTP is already used in many agglomerations worldwide to define fixed quality and service standards for urban public transport. The guideline, moreover, investigates the Iranian urban transport planning system and suggests a way to adapt the tool to fit with Iranian conditions [see Arndt/Döge 2013]. Several planning tools for the dimension of “Transportation and Mobility” were developed in the Young Cities project. The Transport Emission Calculation Tool TECT (see above) is an easy-to-use instrument to assume traffic-based emissions based on different planning scenarios. It allows users to easily assess transport-planning alternatives as different networks, modal split, or land use. The tools were tested in Hashtgerd and will be used regularly in urban planning there. Due to the high usability and reduced data requirements, the transferability to other regions is possible. The Transport Sector as Part of an Integrated Climate Protection Concept for Gauteng, South Africa In the EnerKey project, two transport-related models were developed. First, the TEMT Emission modelling tool, which derives real-world emissions factors for Gauteng and allows the spatial distribution of emissions of the vehicle fleet. Secondly, TIMES-GEECO is an application of the energy system model TIMES, which incorporates all demand sectors of Gauteng—i.e., transport, industry, commerce, residential, and public buildings—as well as the energy provision chains outside of the province. Both models were developed in such a way that they include the characteristics of developing countries, such as local transport modes or the socio-economic framework. Moreover, the models were used to overcome data gaps, because much information is not available for the analysed study regions. In EnerKey, the TEMT Emission modelling tool was used to generate emission factors for different driving situations and vehicle technologies. These were used as input for the TIMES-GEECO energy system model and allowed to analyse the future composition of the vehicle fleet for different scenarios. Finally, TIMES-GEECO results were used as input for the TEMT model again, so that they could be spatially analysed. It seems reasonable to apply the TEMT model to other megacity regions in the world. There, based on local mobility data, the model could provide further insights into the

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spatial distribution of pollutant emissions—for example, NOx, particulate matters—which are a serious problem for living quality and health conditions in cities. Furthermore, TEMT could provide information on the likely performance of alternative powertrain technologies—for example, hybrid or electric vehicles, biofuels usage—in terms of their emissions reduction potential. The TIMES-GEECO model makes use of the energy system model generator TIMES, which is a flexible toolkit to analyse the future perspectives of technologies and pathways to achieve political and environmental targets based on a detailed, technology focused bottom-up representation of the energy system. There are many applications of the model, which cover a broad range from local models for rural villages to world models. Obviously, the spatial, technical, and temporal resolution of such a model depends on the research question to be analysed. Based on the flexible background of the TIMES modelling framework, in general, and the particular adaptations considering the characteristics of developing countries already made in TIMES-GEECO, it seems reasonable that the model could be transferred to further integrated modelling applications. It would be easy to achieve the transfer of TIMES-GEECO to other provinces or metros in South Africa, which obviously show a similar structure as Gauteng and comparable data availability to those used in the EnerKey project. A further option could be a national energy system model with sub-national regions—possibly down to municipal level—which considers the regional availability of resources, local energy targets, and socio-economics. That would make it possible to align national, provincial, and local energy planning and climate protection strategies. On the other hand, territorial (decentralised) small-scale applications of the model would also be feasible—for example, for a hospital or industrial area. The TIMES-GEECO energy system model could also be transferred to other regions in the world to show how to reach climate targets in a cost-efficient and achievable manner, which includes explicit consideration of the characteristics of developing countries, such as rapid socio-economic growth and income inequality. Herein, TIMES-GEECO has particular strengths in analysing optimal allocations of biogenic resources and analysing the perspectives of alternative fuels and powertrains, such as electric mobility. Floating Car Data for Hefei, China A good example of a sustainable urban mobility measure that has high transferability potential is traffic management based on floating car data (FCD) as part of a wider low-carbon transport concept, as implemented in Hefei as part of the Metrasys project. Floating car data describes a system in which a selection of vehicles (in Hefei 2,000)—“floating cars”— travelling in city traffic are outfitted with special equipment that measures the vehicle’s current location, speed, and direction, and wirelessly transmits this data to a central server. Using this data, the current traffic situation can be qualified and made available to road users via special navigation units that are able to receive this information and use it to divert users around congested areas, relieving congestion and reducing air pollutant emissions. In addition to the real-time advantages, the FCD information can be stored and used by decision-makers as a reference for planning and technical work, as is the case in Hefei. Hefei’s FCD system could potentially serve as an archetype for other such systems in other cities: it is easy to implement and uses low-cost technology. More recent FCD implementations display the technology’s potential (gathering data and delivering information from/to

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smart-phone equipped users, thus foregoing the cost and effort of selecting and outfitting floating cars). FCD systems are enablers for more comprehensive traffic management systems. Thus, it is not an efficiency measure itself, but a vital step towards a number of measures—such as bus priority at traffic lights, and congestion reduction and traffic diversion to improve the efficiency of the road network. The actual potential with regard to emissions reductions very much depends on the framework in which these traffic management measures are embedded, as explored in the Hefei section of this volume. FCD’s transferability to other Chinese cities is especially high, not only because of the obvious framework-condition similarities shared by Chinese cities, but also more specifically because Hefei is one of many “second-tier” Chinese cities. These cities share the characteristics of rapidly growing populations (two to seven million inhabitants) and motorisation rates, with attendant growth in negative external effects and stress on infrastructure capacity. Thus, measures that address these problems in one second-tier city are likely to be transferable to others. Key element to the success of the system with regard to sustainable development is the integration of traffic management into a wider concept of sustainable urban mobility on which the Metrasys project provided advice to the city administration.

Conclusion One of the key drivers of GHG emission is traffic-related CO2 emissions. Car ownership of primarily fossil fuel vehicles is dramatically increasing in developing and emerging countries. In addition, local emissions based on car traffic lead to enormous health problems—particularly in high population concentrations, such as megacities. A radical reduction of private car use is needed to meet sustainability in transport systems in megacities. The experiences of the Future Megacities projects underline the importance of the interrelation between transportation systems and settlement structure. In the long run, high capacities in transport systems promote a spatial segregation, which increases the traffic demand. Thus a vicious cycle starts. The implementation of high-quality public transport is an important prerequisite for reducing car traffic. This system should have high accessibility and affordability for everyone. In addition, paratransit systems are transport services that can easily be adapted to different local conditions in megacities in other countries. Moreover, this kind of mass transport service with demand-responsive offers could be a fitting approach for rural areas in industrial countries. Adapted tools, which were developed in these future Megacities projects, could help to display the complex interrelations between transport system and spatial structure. The projects developed a broad set of such instruments—from user-friendly estimation tools to elaborated complex models. Local conditions, such as data availability and budget, are important in choosing the most applicable tool. One of the main prerequisites for implementing a sustainable transportation concept is participation that includes all stakeholders. These procedures should include all groups of the local population, companies, NGOs, municipalities, and other planning authorities. The Future Megacities projects demonstrated a mutual learning processes between emerging and industrial countries to the topics of urban transportation. Experiences from both sides should be discussed and included in the final concepts.

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References Arndt, W.-H.; Döge, N. (2013): The Local (Public) Transport Plan as an Approach to optimize Urban Public Transport Planning in Iran. Young Cities Research Briefs (Vol. 14). http://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-tuberlin/frontdoor/index/ index/docId/3779 Berlin Bray, D.J./Taylor, M. /Scrafton, D. (2011): “Transport Policy in Australia—Evolution, Learning and Policy Transfer”. In: Transport Policy, 18 (3), pp. 522–32 Emberger, G./Pfaffenbichler, P./Jaensirisak, S./Timms, P. (2008): “‘Ideal’ Decision-making Processes for Transport Planning: A Comparison Between Europe and South East Asia”. In: Transport Policy, 15 (6), pp. 341-49 Handbooks Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh (2013): Handbooks Action Field 1 “Urban Environment” and Handbooks Action Field 2 “Urban Development”. BTU Cottbus 2013 http://www.tu-cottbus.de/projekte/de/ megacity-hcmc/results/handbooks.html Kahn Ribeiro, S./Figueroa, M.J./Creutzig, F./Dubeux, C./Hupe, J./Kobayashi, S. (2012): “Chapter 9—Energy End-Use: Transport”. In: Global Energy Assessment—Toward a Sustainable Future, pp. 575–648. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria LEDA (2000): Legal/regulatory measures to influence the use of the transport system. EG-DGVII Transport Research 4. Framework Programme. Brussels Macário, R./Marques, C.F. (2008): “Transferability of Sustainable Urban Mobility Measures”. In: Research in Transportation Economics, 22 (1), pp. 146–56 Marsden, G./Stead, D. (2011): “Policy Transfer and Learning in the Field of Transport: A Review of Concepts and Evidence”. In: Transport Policy, 18 (3), pp. 492–500 Pfaffenbichler, P./Emberger G. et al. (2010): “A system dynamics approach to land use transport interaction modelling: the strategic model MARS and its application”. In: System Dynamics Review, 26(3) Pfaffenbichler, P. (2001): “Verkehrsmittel und Strukturen”. In: Wissenschaft & Umwelt Interdisziplinär, (3), pp. 35–42 Stead, D./de Jong, M./Reinholde, I. (2006): “Urban Transport Policy Transfer in Central and Eastern Europe”. In: disP, 172 (1), pp. 62–73 Notes 1 See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle 2 These include: Transport Master Plan—Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Hyderabad City Development Plan—Hyderabad, India; Hefei City Region Master Plan—Hefei, China; Master Plan of Hashtgerd—Hashtgerd, Iran; National Land Use Transport Master Plan 2005-2050—Gauteng, South Africa.

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PROJECTS IN BRIEF

On the following pages all nine participating cities of the research programme on Future Megacities are presented. They were funded between 2008-2013. Details are collected about the context and challenges for the projects, their objectives, and approaches. A short overview of the most important outcomes and solutions is provided. More information on these solutions can be found in the Products and Tools Data Base at www.future-megacities.org.

Casablanca •

Tehran-Karaj •

• Urumqi

Hyderabad • Addis Ababa • Lima • Gauteng •

Featured in this volume: Adaptation Planning in Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) Energy and Climate Protection in Gauteng (South Africa) Transportation Management in Hefei (China) Governance for Sustainability in Hyderabad (India) New Town Development in Tehran-Karaj Region (Iran) Featured in other volumes: Solid Waste Management in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) Urban Agriculture in Casablanca (Morocco) Water Management in Lima (Peru) Resource Efficiency in Urumqi (China)

• Hefei • Ho Chi Minh City

Energy and Climate Protection in Gauteng (South Africa) Context

Gauteng Province in South Africa is the most densely urbanised area in South Africa and covers an area of 18,178 km². The province consists of the three large metropolises: Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and Tshwane, as well as two other district municipalities. Most of the province is located at an average altitude of 1,500 m above sea level with high solar radiation levels. There has been a striking lack of energy-supply security over the last years, with frequent blackouts hindering Gauteng’s aim to be competitive as a global city. The energy-supply system is dominated by electricity generated from coal. About one-third of the fuel for transport is also produced from coal. Gauteng’s levels of energy consumption and gas emissions can be compared to that of developed countries like Germany. For the energy sector alone, the energy consumption in 2009 was 765 PJ and the total CO2 emissions were 126 million tonnes (10.5 tonnes per person). Despite the high solar radiation, the share of renewable-energy use remains low. Due to low costs for electricity (relative to international costs), there are few incentives for energy-saving behaviour and a more energy-efficient policy implementation.

Objectives

The EnerKey project intends to contribute to a sustainable transformation of the Gauteng urban area by developing an integrated programme for an efficient, environmentally friendly, and climate-protecting system of energy supply and utilisation. EnerKey supports this process by carrying out research and assisting stakeholders in the implementation and monitoring of projects, measures, and strategies. This includes the development and application of tools and instruments for energy and environmental planning. Providing training and education courses to staff and admin-

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istration members of the municipalities will enable capacity building and dissemination of the results. The specific objectives are: 1. Assess the present values of energy consumption and GHG emissions of the energy system in Gauteng 2. Provide means to improve the energy performance in the building sector, especially in public buildings 3. Initiate a process to reduce energy consumption and related emissions from traffic and transport 4. Show viable options for using more renewable energy 5. Demonstrate, with a number of practical projects, that the implementation of sustainable projects makes sense and can be successful

Approach

The EnerKey project has a clear interdisciplinary and integrated approach by combining socio-economic and technical aspects, as well as by co-operating with partners from different departments of regional and municipal authorities, NGOs, the private sector, and universities. The project follows both a “topdown” and a “bottom-up” approach. In the short term, individual pilot projects are being initiated, for example, in schools, administrative buildings, and in the transport sector. These projects are developed and monitored with the help of decision support tools and models. In parallel, an integrated energy model approach is set up, resulting in the provision of measures and recommendations to improve urban development and the energy system in the region. The EnerKey project specifically undertakes measures for strengthening the Gauteng regional administration, to coordinate the municipal efforts in energy planning and in the development of pilot projects. Training and capacity building are undertaken to disseminate the results and findings.

Gautrain Feeder Bus in Gauteng [Zehner]

Solutions

· Gauteng Energy Office—the regional answer to energy challenges · TIMES GECCO—A regional energy- and emissioncost optimisation model and training · EnerKey Advisor Tool—assessing energy performance of buildings · EnerKey Long Term Perspective Group—a government think-tank model · Transport Emission Inventory—informed mobility planning · Energy Technology Handbook—sustainable technologies for the future · CDM—Emission Trade Evaluation Tool · iEEECo—energy awareness activities for scholars and cost-efficient settlements for the poor · African Sustainable House—a holistic dwelling approach · EnerKey “Detectives”—education and installation of solar panels in schools

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· EnerKey Environmental and Energy Atlas— Assessment of Renewable Energy options for the Gauteng Province

Contact

Project: EnerKey-Energy as a key element of an integrated climate protection concept for the city region of Gauteng Ludger Eltrop | IER—University of Stuttgart Email: [email protected] Harold Annegarn | University of Johannesburg Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.enerkey.info, www.enerkey.co.za, www.enerkey.de  

Solid Waste Management in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) Context

Addis Ababa is one of the fastest-growing cities in Africa and also the main commercial, financial, industrial, and service-provision centre in Ethiopia. The city is presently facing a plethora of problems, including insufficient solid and liquid-waste management. While an ever-increasing volume of waste is generated, the effectiveness of the solid waste collection and disposal systems is declining. In Addis Ababa, around 80% of the solid waste produced is collected. The remaining waste is dumped on open spaces or drains. The city has separate systems available that handle solid wastes. The formal system managed by the city administration collects the waste from collection points and transfers it to the landfill site (secondary collection). The second system assembles groups of organised precollectors who collect the waste from households and bring it to the collection points (primary collection). The collection of recyclables is performed by so-called korales, who collect only a small percentage of recyclables directly from the households. Both the precollectors and the korales are physically, socially, and economically disadvantaged waste workers, whose work compensates for the lack of municipal services. Up to now, the recycling sector in Addis Ababa, particularly for organic waste, remains undeveloped. This means that organic waste, which makes up more than 60% of the municipal solid waste, is simply collected and dumped in the landfill. The landfill gas generated by the organic waste is not collected either, thus contributing significantly to the greenhouse gas emissions of the city.

Objectives

The general objective of the IGNIS project is to demonstrate that waste, if it is understood and treated as a resource, can be a source for income generation and can contribute to global climate-pro-

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tection, as well as to local environmental protection and sustainable development. Hence, the project aims to generate income from valorising municipal solid waste through establishing qualified, economically workable, and sustainable waste treatment. Furthermore, the project seeks to contribute directly to poverty reduction and improved sanitation, and, moreover, to reducing greenhouse gases from dumpsites, conserving raw materials, and improving energy and resource efficiency. In this context, the project aims to provide an instrument that includes methods, practical approaches, and simulation tools to be applied to other emerging megacities, in order to assess the effects when introducing similar waste management and treatment methods.

Approach

The approach comprises different strategies that correlate with one another. An essential aspect of the project’s approach is the generation of a reliable spatial, waste, and emission database for the scientific work and the calculations of various scenarios. Additionally, pilot projects have been implemented and will be developed further. The majority of these pilot projects are small-scale projects on a decentralised level (e.g., composting, anaerobic digestion, recycling). These pilot projects are analysed with a focus on technical, greenhouse gas, and emission-related, socio-economic, and occupational safety and health (OSH) related aspects. Furthermore, the scientific staff, the city administration, and the groups working on the pilot projects are given the opportunity to build capacities and become familiar with the technologies as well as with the concept of using waste as a resource. The data collected and the results of the pilot project analyses are used for modelling, simulation, or up-scaling of the businesses. Scenario simulation will provide the possibility of showing the

New light rail line construction [Born]

effects, for example, on greenhouse gases and the socio-economy. IGNIS is not conceived as a specific, isolated solution for Addis Ababa. Rather, several aspects of the project—e.g., methods, pilot projects, results, and lessons learnt—are transferred to other fast-growing cities in order to learn from the specific requirements of those cities. As a result, the IGNIS approach will be modified and adapted accordingly.

Solutions

· Methodology for data collection on waste quantities and quality · Model-based strategic planning for sustainable solid waste management · Adapted occupational safety and health standards and solutions · Market studies and business guidelines for entrepreneurs and for recycling products · Business improvement options for a paper-recycling manufacturer

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· Implementation projects for separate collection at source, biogas facility, charcoal briquettes from organic wastes, composting, school biogas-latrine · Training modules for WEEE collection and dismantling · Closing material cycles by means of using biogas sludge for erosion-prevention combined with energy crop production · Obstacle-based transfer analysis methodology for technologies or methods

Contact

Project: IGNIS—Income generation & climate protection by valorising municipal solid wastes in a sustainable way in emerging mega-cities Dieter Steinbach | AT-Verband Stuttgart Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.ignis.p-42.net

Urban Agriculture in Casablanca (Morocco) Context

Casablanca, currently the largest and most populated urban region in Morocco, has grown within a mere century from a small settlement of 20,000 inhabitants to a metropolis of an estimated 5.1 million by 2030. 22% of the national urban population live in Casablanca. 60% of industry in Morocco is concentrated in this agglomeration—creating rapid urban growth, accompanied by the development of deprived quarters (bidonvilles). In 1907, the city covered a small area of only 50 ha. In 1997, the region “Greater Casablanca” was created, comprising 121,412 ha and eight prefectures. Thus, many previously rural communities with agricultural areas are being urbanised, thereby consuming valuable open space. As a resulting phenomenon of current development processes specific to megacities, Urban Agriculture (UA) as a spatial dimension present, new hybrid and climate-sensitive forms between rural and urban space. An underlying hypothesis is that these reciprocal urban-rural linkages contain the potential for a qualified coexistence that could be the basis for forming sustainable climate-optimised, multifunctional urban and open spatial structures (productive landscapes) in order to make a long-term contribution to the sustainability of cities and the quality of life for their inhabitants. It is to be assumed that UA will only be able to coexist in the long term and in a qualitatively meaningful manner with other, economically stronger forms of land utilisation, when synergies between urban and agricultural uses arise.

Objectives

The project explores the existence of synergies between urban and agricultural uses and investigates how they might be developed. The project focuses on the possibilities of integrating peri-urban agricultural land into the urban development process. It also analyses the extent to which UA can make

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a relevant contribution to a climate-optimised and sustainable urban development as an integrative factor in urban growth centres. It aims to answer the following research questions: 1. To what extent can UA play a significant role in adapting to the consequences of climate change, via climate protection and via energy efficiency? 2. To what extent is UA an innovative strategy for sustainable land conservation of open urban areas? 3. To what extent can UA contribute to the struggle against poverty? 4. How can UA be integrated into urban development as a vital element in accordance with local conditions?

Approach

The parallel development of a theoretical basis, basic research, and applied research and implementation strategies characterises the project. The research team is bi-national, interdisciplinary, and transdisciplinary. The project pursues an open, process-oriented research approach subjected to follow-up adjustments. According to the methodological approaches of the participating research disciplines, subsidiary research approaches follow different routes, comprising the normative, the descriptive/empirical, and the applied research orientation. The three most important methodological tools for the overall project are the spiral-shaped work approach, the integration of the subsidiary results, and the action-research approach via the pilot projects. The four topics urban development, agriculture, climate change and governance, and technical support were defined for the organisation of the working process and were studied in depth.

Light rail in Casablanca [Born]

Solutions

· Action Plan for integrating UA into the urban development process · Design solutions for multifunctional space systems · Models of regional and local climate, weather, water balance, air quality, and flooding as a basis for informed decision-making · Experimental plants for industrial wastewater treatment and reuse · Concepts for peri-urban tourism · Approaches for healthy food production · UA as an integrated element in informal settlements · Awareness-raising (e.g., public campaign) and dissemination strategy

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Contact

Project: Urban agriculture as integrative factor of climate-optimised urban development Undine Giseke | Technical University Berlin, Chair of Landscape Architecture/Open Space Planning (TU Berlin) Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.uac-m.org

New Town Development in the Tehran-Karaj Region (Iran) Context

The enormous increases in population in threshold and developing countries in relation to rapid urbanisation, as well as rising living standards, pose significant challenges to the affected regions in terms of energy supply and climate protection. However, these rapidly growing regions also offer a great potential for shaping sustainable urban development. Particularly in Iran, these developments are strikingly manifest. The Tehran-Karaj region forms one of the fastest-growing urban agglomerations in the Middle East and is a major regional contributor to climate change. There is a demand for the construction of 1.5 million new housing units per year in a country that will be particularly affected by the effects of climate change. With the construction of new settlements, consumption of energy, commodities, and resources is rising dramatically. The related harmful climatic effects intensify global and regional risks.

Objectives

The Young Cities project is a German-Iranian applied research project that aims to develop solutions and strategies for a sustainable, energy-efficient, and resilient urban development in arid and semi-arid regions as a contribution to significant CO2 reduction. The focus lies on contemporary, formally planned, mass housing, within the framework of the case study of Hashtgerd New Town in Tehran province. The project intends to decrease CO2 emissions by reducing energy consumption within the principles of sustainable urban development. The aim is to help to reduce the consumption of other valuable environmental resources, primarily water, but also soil and air. These aspects are complemented by taking into account economic and social ambitions including social issues, efficient and flexible management, public participation, and environmentally conscious consumer behaviour, as well as by encouraging a positive local identity.

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Approach

To implement the goals and objectives of the project, an integral, interdisciplinary approach to urban development was chosen, ranging across different levels and scales: · Space—urban structure down to the sub-neighbourhood level · Networks—infrastructure networks of energy, water, mobility · Objects—buildings with a variety of different uses The social and economic conditions of the project are addressed by the further dimension of cross-sector approaches. This part of the approach focuses on high-potential fields of action for sustainable development such as the following: · Raising the qualification levels of construction workers for better construction quality, thus lowering energy demand of the buildings, · The participation of the inhabitants and the raising of awareness on environmentally friendly behaviour. The Young Cities project is committed to Action Research based on the method of “research through design”: the verification of research hypotheses through planning, implementation, and realisation of pilot projects forms an integral part of the project. One area 35-ha—located in Hashtgerd New Town, 70 km west of Tehran—has been chosen as the central demonstration site for the development of an energy-efficient neighbourhood, called the “Shahre Javan Community”.

Solutions

· Detailed master plan for a 35-ha pilot area; the Shahre Javan Community in Hashtgerd New Town · “New Quality Building” with sixteen housing units, inaugurated in July 2010 · Manual for a climate-responsive and sustainable urban development

Bus rapid transit in Tehran [Born]

· Manual for integrated urban planning in semiarid and arid regions · Conceptual designs for energy-efficient residential and commercial buildings · On-site vocational education and training for construction workers · Public transport concept · Wastewater concept · Ecological assessment model · Implementation of environmental compensation areas

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Contact

Project: Young Cities—Developing energy-efficient urban fabric in the Tehran-Karaj region Rudolf Schäfer | Technische Universität Berlin School of Planning, Building, Environment Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.youngcities.de

Resource Efficiency in Urumqi (China) Context

Urumqi is the capital of China’s North West Province, “Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region” (XUAR). With an initial population of 88,000 inhabitants in 1949, Urumqi is fast becoming the biggest economic growth node in Central Asia, with around 3.1 million inhabitants in the city and about 4.5 million in greater Urumqi. This rapid development is taking place in an ecologically highly sensitive (semi-)arid environment within a 50-km-wide irrigated green belt between the foothills of the glacial Tianshan Ridge (up to 5445 m a.s.l.) and the Junggar Basin (500−600 m a.s.l.) The cold winters are typically accompanied by extended periods of stable inversion layers, which lead to dramatically increased levels of air pollution. As the region is extremely mineral-rich (coal, oil, gas, ores), dynamic industrialisation and the rising wealth of the growing population, as well as the increasing volume of traffic, are further driving factors that have catapulted Urumqi onto the “blacklist” of the top five most air-polluted cities in the world [Blacksmith Report 2007]. Both industrial and private household waste are increasing rapidly, not only in quantity but also in variety, without having led to specific adaptations in waste management. Water is the most precious and socially sensitive resource in the region. A water provision gap starts to open up during the summer months and has to be gradually closed by the (over)exploitation of groundwater resources. Climate change is aggravating the situation; as the snowline rises, the period of snow coverage decreases, as does the period of permanent melted-ice water-runoff in spring.

Objectives

The project concentrates on energy efficiency, water resource efficiency, and materials efficiency. Within the overall objective to promote a sustainabilityoriented megacity development in semi-arid areas, the project aims to do the following:

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· Lower energy consumption in private households, as well as in industrial areas, thereby lowering air pollution, CO2 emissions, and resource extraction · Promote the installation of renewable energybased facilities · Implement a GPR-based monitoring system, concentrating on soil moisture content as an indicator for climate change · Design a realistic descriptive hydrological model and decision-making support system for Urumqi to allow political actors to be able to better predict future scenarios and their consequences on water availability and distribution · Promote developments towards a circular economy on the level of industrial enterprises, as well as industrial parks

Approach

The main focal points of the project are directed at the ecologically sensitive and closely interrelated core cycles (1) water, (2) materials, and (3) energy with three Sino-German task groups being assigned respectively. The Chinese teams are led by key political or scientific decision-makers who promote specific tasks based on high-ranking political contacts and who negotiate agreements, which has proven to be a helpful support for the project. Scientists, engineers, and other employees on the execution level proved to be important key partners within the development phase of products, processes, and the specification of advanced new ideas that contribute to greater resource efficiency in the respective fields of action. A cross-cutting exchange of ideas, concepts, and theoretical and practical solutions is being facilitated by various activities.

Car-driven infrastructure [Zehner]

Solutions

· Construction of the first passive house in Western China · Extra low-energy renovation of existing buildings · Development of waste management software for enterprises in Midong Industrial Park that covers, classifies, and characterises all categories of waste · Hydrological analyses and modelling, advice on efficient water use, and water information management for political decision-makers in Urumqi Region · Mass and energy flow analysis in the Chinese PVC industry · Capacity building for a soil moisture-based measurement methodology (Ground Penetrating Radar) as a basis for modelling climate change

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Contact

Project: RECAST Urumqi—Meeting the resource efficiency challenge in a climate sensitive dryland megacity Thomas Sterr | Heidelberg University, Dept. of Geography Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.urumqi-drylandmegacity.uni-hd.de    References

Blacksmith Institute (2007): The World's Worst Polluted Places— The Top Ten (of The Dirty Thirty). http://www.worstpolluted.org/reports/file/2007%20Report%20 updated%202009.pdf, 23.05.2014

Transportation Management in Hefei (China) Context

Growing urbanisation and the increasing size of metropolitan regions are a challenge, as well as an opportunity, for the economic development and the social balance of societies, particularly in rapidly developing countries like China. The dynamic evolution of Chinese cities poses special challenges for transport concepts. According to the recent census, 5 million people live in Hefei (capital of Anhui province, China), 3 million of whom live in the urban area. Meanwhile, the rapid rise of car ownership in Chinese cities significantly impacts people’s lifestyles, as well as the environment. Traffic congestion as a phenomenon has extended from first-tier cities to second-tier cities such as Hefei. The rapid growth of private car ownership has also led to the excessive rise in road construction that remains insufficient to keep up with traffic growth, while simultaneously consuming valuable land resources in Hefei. Traffic congestion is becoming ever more critical day by day and causes more delays, fuel consumption, air pollution, and CO2 emissions. The rapidly growing demand for mobility and housing has created new challenges for urban administrative institutions, which have to deal with an unprecedented urban growth, thus leading to an urgent need for sustainable development.

Objectives

The main objectives of the METRASYS project are to contribute to climate protection through the development of sustainable transport in highly dynamic economic and urban regions. In particular, the project aims to provide decision-makers with the necessary means to effectively implement and guide sustainable transport in Hefei. Furthermore, special emphasis is placed on the general transferability of development approaches on traffic management for comparable megacities worldwide.

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Approach

The project integrates different disciplines—for example, spatial planning, transport science, engineering science, and political science—and addresses both planning and operational aspects of the transport sector, through deployment of a sophisticated geographic information system (GIS) and an advanced traffic-management system. This system also facilitates environmental evaluations and analyses with an emission and pollution dispersion model developed in this project. This, in turn, provides valuable feedback to the transport and urban planning process. Furthermore, the results are used to explore opportunities for climate finance, which provides additional incentives for sustainable transport development. This comprehensive approach was devised and has been implemented in close co-operation with relevant Chinese stakeholders. This contributes to a constructive and concrete stakeholder dialogue, bringing all relevant parties together, thereby addressing the challenges of sustainable mobility in a holistic manner. The project works in four main research areas related to energy-efficient future megacities: 1. Technology Development: realisation of effective concepts and implementation of intelligent traffic management based on Floating Car Data (FCD) and video detection for intersection monitoring 2. Model Development: energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by assessing the environmental impact of the trafficmanagement system and the planned urban traffic development through the validation and optimisation process using various models, such as traffic models, emission, and immission models 3. Transport Planning: capacity building and accompanying urban and transport planning for sustainable city development

Highways in Hefei [Zehner]

4. Climate Finance: identification of climate finance opportunities for sustainable low-carbon transport in Hefei

Solutions

· Intelligent traffic-management system based on floating-car data, video detection, and broadcasting with Digital Audio Broadcast (DAB) · Model development for the assessment of environmental impacts of traffic as a basis for informed decision-making and climate-friendly transport planning strategies · Guidelines and manuals for best practice in “traffic management”, “transport planning”, and “urban block design” · Finance options for sustainable transport · Strategic design proposal for pedestrian-friendly cities

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Contact

Project: METRASYS—Sustainable mobility for megacities Alexander Sohr | German Aerospace Centre, Institute of Transportation Systems Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.metrasys.de

Governance for Sustainability in Hyderabad (India) Context

The population of Greater Hyderabad is predicted to reach 10.5 million inhabitants by 2015. The rapid economic growth of the emerging megacity has facilitated higher living standards and modern lifestyles for the emerging middle class. This is, however, accompanied by escalating energy and resource consumption. Furthermore, long-standing problems remain unresolved. For example, approximately one-third of the population lives below the poverty line and continues to suffer from food, housing, education, and health problems. In addition to this, climate change is predicted to lead to extreme weather events, disastrous floods, strong heat waves, extreme droughts, and increasing water scarcity. Given this natural, social, and economic context of Hyderabad, the question arises: what can be considered a reasonable response to the anticipated impact of climate change?

Objectives

The overall objective of the project is to develop a sustainable development framework for Hyderabad by prioritising mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change and energy efficiency. Focusing on the sectors of transport, food, land-use planning, and the provision of energy and water, the project pursues the following functional objectives: 1. To increase scientific knowledge and to generate a database concerning climate change, its mitigation and adaptation opportunities, as well as to ascertain the potential of energy efficiency through collaborative research 2. To identify institutional and policy solutions that encourage a behavioural change in relevant actors to address the problems (“getting the institutions right”) 3. To design, propose, and implement demonstrable strategies for climate-change adaptation

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and mitigation, as well as for increased energy efficiency 4. To ensure a wider adoption of these strategies by all relevant stakeholders and actors through appropriate communication, capacity building, advocacy, policy dialogues, and dissemination mechanisms

Approach

The project aims to achieve climate-change adaptation and mitigation, as well as energy efficiency, through the design of appropriate policies that aim to change behaviour. Analysis of policies, of lifestyles in private households, of authorities for urban planning and administration, and of governance structures were conducted in tandem with a technical analysis in each of the focus fields: energy and water supply, food and health, and transport. The results of both analyses guided the conceptualisation of the pilot projects. The project applies a “discourse approach” to implement the necessary changes in the institutions and government organisations. The knowledge generated through the research and the implemented pilot projects that involve all the stakeholders and actors is embedded in local discourse and dialogue. Eight pilot projects have been implemented and evaluated in the areas of urban planning, transport, food, and clean and efficient energy provision, as well as education for sustainable lifestyles. The management options that evolved through pilot projects have been transferred to relevant stakeholders in Hyderabad with the help of capacity-building measures. The consortium, involving partners from scientific, governmental, non-governmental, and private organisations, has formulated a Perspective Action Plan (PAP) for Hyderabad and proposed its adoption.

Slow motion in Hyderabad's old city [Zehner]

Solutions

· Climate Assessment Tool for Hyderabad (CATHY) · Strategic Transport Planning Tool · Street food-safety manual and on-site training to strengthen a climate-friendly urban food-supply system · Collective action for fuel transition among the urban poor · Co-operative and technical solutions to increase energy efficiency in irrigation · Solar powered schools · Education for sustainable lifestyles · Community radio

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Contact

Project: Climate and energy in a complex transition process towards sustainable Hyderabad—mitigation and adaptation strategies by changing institutions, governance structures, lifestyles and consumption patterns Konrad Hagedorn | Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.sustainable-hyderabad.de  

Adaptation Planning in Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) Context

The mega-urban region of Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in South Vietnam is one of the most dynamic examples of rapid urban development over the last two decades and, therefore, one of the regions most affected by climate change and risks in Vietnam. The urbanisation of Ho Chi Minh City has been intrinsically related to the process of industrialisation following the Doi Moi reforms of market liberalisation in 1987. Between 1986 and 2010, the population of HCMC almost doubled from 3.78 million inhabitants to the current level of 7.4 million inhabitants. In response to this high urbanisation pressure, HCMC’s government was forced to repeatedly expand the urban boundary, leading to the establishment of six new urban districts. Due to HCMC’s geographical location in a low altitude, intra-tropical coastal zone, northeast of the Mekong Delta and 50 km inland from the South China Sea, the city experiences significant annual variations of climatic and weather extremes. Together with its huge population, its economic assets, and the dominant role it plays in the national economy, the city is considered to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Objectives

The project aims to increase the resilience and adaptation capacities of HCMC in order to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to the adverse effects of climate change. Hence, risks and vulnerabilities are assessed, and sustainable adaptation measures are developed and incorporated into urban decision-making and planning processes. Consequently, the project seeks to establish a multilayered, typological approach, which will be utilised to assess the sustainability of urban settlement developments. Furthermore, the project aims to develop adaptation strategies and measures that can be transferred to other affected regions.

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Approach

The project follows an interdisciplinary approach by combining expertise in different fields related to the two overall topics, which constitute the project structure: Action Field One focuses on environmental research; Action Field Two focuses on urban development. The Urban Typology Framework provides important environmental and social information, which, in turn, is referred to the vulnerability assessment, based on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) as a basis for transferring scientifically known and documented problems of climate change into adapted planning systems (Action Field 1). Furthermore, the project aims to bring sustainable urban development strategies, in the context of climate change, into the mainstream urban system of HCMC. Based on the knowledge gained from the research, smallscale projects will be conducted with the Vietnamese partners to promote best-practice methods for further appropriate action (Action Field 2). On the practical level, the instruments of zoning and building codes will be examined and recommendations will be made for their improvement with regard to sustainable urban development, energy efficiency, and resiliency to adverse climate changes. Furthermore, as the project follows an applied research approach, results are requested in terms of both implementation (practice) and research (theory). Both are complementary; thus, on the one hand, the implementation of measures will be an outcome of scientific research, and, on the other hand, research will be undertaken on the basis of the implementation of measures.

Traffic in HCMC [Zehner]

Solutions

The following products are results of pilot projects implemented with different target groups: · Urban Climate Map as a basis for planning decisions within the general land-use plan · Urban Water Balance Modelling and Planning recommendations · Handbook for Decision-Makers: Land-Use Planning Recommendations—Adaptation Strategies for a Changing Climate in Ho Chi Minh City · Urban Design Guidebook as a tool for integrating climate-change adaptation into planning and design decisions · Handbook for Green Housing for disseminating good practices in urban design and architecture · Handbook for Community-Based Adaptation as a guide for building resilient communities through local action

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Contact

Project: Megacity research project TP. Ho Chi Minh Michael Schmidt | Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.megacity-hcmc.org

Water Management in Lima (Peru) Context

Lima, a desert city (9 mm annual precipitation), has a population of approximately 9.8 million and is growing at an annual rate of about 2%, largely due to the influx of poorer people from the provinces. This development puts additional pressure on informal settlements, which lack an appropriate supply of electricity, water, and sanitation. Consequently, the polarisation between rich and poor districts is increasing. The water supply is mainly sourced from the Rímac River, which has an irregular flow due to the arid climate and due to significant seasonal rainfall variations in the Andean mountains. Furthermore, river flows from the Amazon catchment area are diverted in order to contribute to Lima’s water supply while groundwater resources remain limited. The scarcity of water resources will further aggravate the situation, as Peru is the third-most sensitive country to impacts of climate change on precipitation and water availability [Rosenberger 2006]. This is likely to intensify even more in the future due to the El Niño phenomenon. At present, the water supply network covers 80.6% of the population of Lima, whilst about 77% of the population are connected to the public sewer network. At present, only about 17% of wastewater receives some form of treatment. New plants are under construction; however, they will only offer a limited degree of wastewater treatment. The major quantity of wastewater is simply discharged into the rivers or directly into the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, the potential for water reuse has not yet been fully exploited. The water sector strongly interconnects with the energy system, not only in the inherent need for energy for water and wastewater pumping and treatment, but even more so for the joint use of reservoirs for water supply and for energy production.

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Objectives

The Lima Water Project (LiWa) aims to improve sustainable planning and management of the water and sanitation system in Lima through informed decision-making and stakeholder participation. The project draws particular attention to the impacts of climate change and to the promotion of energy efficiency in water and sanitation systems. More specifically, the project intends to develop adequate and locally beneficial solutions for different problems and contexts that contribute to an overall favourable water-management concept.

Approach

The LiWa project focuses specifically on the development and application of fundamental procedures and tools for participatory decision-making, based on informed discussions. The project builds upon modelling and simulation of the entire water supply and sanitation system within the megacity system of Lima. Furthermore, the project integrates findings from global circulation models, regionalised to Peruvian river catchments. The project also develops and evaluates options for reorganising the water tariff system in order to meet economic, ecological, and social requirements. Additionally, urban planning aspects are considered by developing the ecological infrastructure strategy, which is based on the concepts of water-sensitive urban design. With this holistic project approach, key issues and challenges of climate-responsive and energy-efficient structures of water and wastewater management can be adequately addressed. Hence, the following work packages are being addressed: 1. Integrated scenario development 2. Downscaling of climate models and waterbalance modelling 3. Macro-modelling and simulation system

Bus rapid transit station in Lima [Born]

4. Participation and governance approach 5. Education and capacity building 6. Economic evaluation of water-pricing options 7. Integrated urban planning strategies and planning support

Solutions

· Simulator for macro-modelling of the urban water system for informed decision-making · Simulation of Lima’s future development, taking into account climate-change effects on the water system for long-term planning · Round-table discussions as new forms of governance in the water sector · Water-pricing options and improvement of tariff structure · Integrated urban planning strategies and planning support · E-Academy for education and capacity building

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Contact

Project: Sustainable water and wastewater management in urban growth centres coping with climatechange concepts for Metropolitan Lima, Peru Manfred Schütze | ifak e. V. Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg Email: [email protected] Webpage: www.lima-water.de References Rosenberger, M. (2006): Klimawandel in Peru – alle zwei Minuten ein Fußballfeld weniger. http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_109091522-1-30.pdf?070523151027, 23.5.2014

Authors Wulf-Holger Arndt is the head of the research unit “Mobility and Space” in the Center of Technology and Society (CTS) at Technische Universität Berlin. He studied transportation planning in Petersburg, Dresden, and Berlin. He wrote his doctoral thesis about the optimisation of commercial and freight transport. Dr. Arndt is now leading research projects on sustainable transportation planning in an international context, climate change and transport systems, as well as barrier-free mobility. He also gives lectures on international urban transportation and commercial transport in urban areas. Technische Universität Berlin | wulf-holger.arndt@ tu-berlin.de Xiaoxu Bei studied traffic engineering at the Tongji University in Shanghai and at the University of Stuttgart, and completed his Dipl.-Ing. in 2000. In 2001, he began working for the German Aerospace Center (DLR). From 2002–2004, he was project manager at the “Dr. Brenner Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH” in Beijing. Since 2005, he has been back at the DLR as project manager and research scientist. He was the German-Chinese coordinator of the project METRASYS. He is also involved in several other bilateral projects between China and Germany, and conducts research in the field of traffic management (ITS). German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Transportation Systems Berlin | [email protected] Norman Döge has a degree (Dipl.-Geogr.) in geography from the Freie Universität Berlin, Germany. He currently works at the Center for Technology and Society (CTS) at Technische Universität Berlin in the research unit “Mobility and Space”. His research focuses on transportation planning and research in urban areas of developing countries, with special attention to informal public transport. Technische Universität Berlin | [email protected] Guenter Emberger is Associate Professor in the Research Center of Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering at the Institute of Transportation at Vienna University of Technology. Since 1990, he has worked in the field of transport planning and policy, with a focus on sustainable transport. His expertise lies in the development of decision support tools based on qualitative

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AUTHORS

(such as the “Decision Makers Guidebook”) and quantitative (co-developer of the strategic, dynamic land use and transport interaction model MARS) methodologies. He was involved in more than thirty international projects covering Central and Eastern Europe, and South East Asia. He led the work package “WP 5—Urban Transport” in the Megacity Research Project TP Ho Chi Minh City (BMBF Megacity Programme). Vienna University of Technology | [email protected] Ulrich Fahl heads the Department of Energy Economics and Systems Analysis at the IER, University of Stuttgart. Fahl is an economist, model expert, and coordinates numerous national and international projects. He is responsible for research activities in the fields of: energy and electricity demand, energy efficiency improvements, energy and electricity modelling, integrated resource planning, energy and transport and energy and climate issues. University of Stuttgart | [email protected] Kain Glensor has an Honours degree in (Mechanical) Engineering (B.E. Hons) from the University of Auckland, New Zealand, and an MA in (environmental) Political Science from the Freie Universität Berlin, Germany, in which he focused on renewable energy and climate change policy. He has worked at the Wuppertal Institute since 2013, where he holds the position of research fellow, working on European and international research projects on sustainable urban transport, energy efficiency and sustainable development. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy | [email protected] Hanna Hüging works at the Wuppertal Institute on international transport policy with a focus on energy-efficiency and low-carbon transport. She has experience in policies and measures for sustainable transport on the local level. Her field of work comprises evaluation of climate protection initiatives in the transport sector, including the assessment of soft measures for emission reduction. Prior to that, she gained experience in working with local municipalities through various positions, such as intern or student assistant. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy | [email protected]

Angela Jain studied environmental and urban planning and attained her PhD in 2004 from Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany. In 2005, she joined the nexus Institute for Cooperation Management and Interdisciplinary Research as head of the unit “Infrastructure and Society”. From 2006 to 2013, she managed the work package “Communication and Participation Strategies” of the international project “Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition Process towards Sustainable Hyderabad”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Her areas of expertise include: sustainable city development in emerging countries, citizens’ participation, climate change awareness, and local governance. nexus Institute, Berlin | [email protected] Oliver Lah is a project coordinator at the Wuppertal Institute, and focuses on climate change mitigation policy analysis and sustainable urban mobility. He is a lead author for the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report and currently coordinates the SOLUTIONS project on urban mobility solutions around the world, and the SUSTAIN EU-ASEAN project that facilitates collaboration on climate and resource issues between Europe and South-east Asia. Prior to that, Lah worked for the New Zealand government, the Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität München, and the Minister of State to the German Federal Chancellor. He holds a Bachelor of Arts with Honours in Political Science, and a Master of Environmental Studies from Victoria University of Wellington. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy | [email protected] Miriam Müller has worked as a research fellow at the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy in the research group “Energy, Transport, and Climate Policy” since 2012. In her work, she focuses on strategies and measures for sustainable mobility, mobility behaviour, and empirical social research. She holds a degree in applied human geography and in art history. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy | [email protected] Tanja Schäfer received her MA in Geography from the University of Mannheim in 1997. After a one-year stay abroad, she specialised in transport planning with postgraduate education at the Office for Environmental Education, Göttingen. Since 1999, she has worked as project manager at PTV on research and

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consulting projects, which primarily deal with the development and applications of procedures to assess impacts—ecological, economic, and social—of transport systems and strategies. Between 2008 and 2013, she led the work group “Sustainable Transport Planning for Hyderabad” within the research project consortium “Sustainable Hyderabad”. PTV Group Planung Transport Verkehr AG, Karlsruhe | [email protected] Alexander Sohr is a scientist at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and since 2005 researcher and project leader at the Institute of Transportation Systems in Berlin, Department “Traffic Management”. He has worked on several national and international projects (the first was in China in 2006). He was the leader of the Future Megacities Project METRASYS. He studied electrical engineering and computer science at Technische Universität Berlin, Germany and completed his degree (Dipl.-Ing.) in 2005. His main interests focus on the field of Floating Car Data processing—from data collection to visualisation, including prediction and data fusion methods. German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Transportation Systems Berlin | [email protected] Jan Tomaschek works as a research associate at the Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) in the department Energy Economics and System Analysis (ESA) at the University of Stuttgart. His research focuses on the further development of energy system models and the model-based formulation of strategies for energy and climate change policies in regional, national and international contexts. University of Stuttgart | [email protected]

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