Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes: Empirical Analysis and Policy Lessons from India (Global Issues in Water Policy, 25) 3030594580, 9783030594589

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Global Issues in Water Policy 25

M. Dinesh Kumar Yusuf Kabir Rushabh Hemani Nitin Bassi Editors

Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes Empirical Analysis and Policy Lessons from India

Global Issues in Water Policy Volume 25

Editor-in-Chief Ariel Dinar, University of California, Riverside, CA, USA Series Editors José Albiac, Unidad Economia, CITA-DGA, Zaragoza, Spain Guillermo Donoso, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Macul, Chile Stefano Farolfi, CIRAD UMR G-EAU, Montpellier, France Rathinasamy Maria Saleth, Chennai, India

Global Issues in Water Policy is now indexed in SCOPUS.

*** Policy work in the water sector has grown tremendously over the past two decades, following the Rio Declaration of 1992. The existing volume of waterrelated literature is becoming dominant in professional outlets, including books and journals. Because the field of water resources is interdisciplinary in nature, covering physical, economic, institutional, legal, environmental, social and political aspects, this diversification leads in many cases to partial treatment of the water issues, or incomplete analysis of the various issues at stake. Therefore, treating a whole host of a country’s water resources issues in one set of pages will be a significant contribution to scholars, students, and other interested public. This book series is expected to address both the current practice of fragmented treatment of water policy analyses, and the need to have water policy being communicated to all interested parties in an integrated manner but in a non-technical language. The purpose of this book series is to make existing knowledge and experience in water policy accessible to a wider audience that has a strong stake and interest in water resources. The series will consist of books that address issues in water policy in specific countries, covering both the generic and specific issues within a common and pre-designed framework.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8877

M. Dinesh Kumar • Yusuf Kabir Rushabh Hemani • Nitin Bassi Editors

Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes Empirical Analysis and Policy Lessons from India

Editors M. Dinesh Kumar Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy Hyderabad, Telangana, India Rushabh Hemani UNICEF, Jaipur Field Office Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

Yusuf Kabir UNICEF Mumbai Field Office Mumbai, Maharashtra, India Nitin Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office New Delhi, India

ISSN 2211-0631 ISSN 2211-0658 (electronic) Global Issues in Water Policy ISBN 978-3-030-59458-9 ISBN 978-3-030-59459-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Preface

Over the past one decade or more, several publications, both academic and popular in nature, have come out from around the world on the theme of climate change and water. While some of them have focused on the global situation with regard to the impact of climate change on water availability and food production, others have focused on the likely impacts on South Asia, especially India, and China. Several academic and research studies have used Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and many Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to predict the changes in temperature and precipitation in different regions across the world. One major limitation of these studies is their failure to capture the effect of the phenomenon of climate variability such as variability in annual precipitation and variability in the mean annual and seasonal temperature on the reliability of the predictions. This is in spite of the fact that for several centuries, many South Asian countries are historically known for severe droughts and devastating floods as a result of extreme climatic conditions. Understanding the effects of such phenomena are vital as historically many of the largest falls in crop productivity in countries like India have been attributed to anomalously low precipitation events, and greater risks to food security may be posed by changes in year-to-year variability and extreme weather events; therefore, knowing the magnitude of extreme event is more important. Most predictions that are based on average trends significantly reduce the utility of the models for regions that experience extreme variability in climatic variables between years. The reason is that many a time, the percentage change in value of the predicted variable (say, rainfall) is less than the percentage change in the annual rainfall, which the region experience, between a dry year and a wet year. In the same way, several of the modelling studies, which tried to predict the impact of climate change on water resources at basin scales, have also failed to capture the impact of variability in precipitation and many other weather parameters on the hydrological processes and their outcomes, that is, stream-flows and groundwater recharge, in the basin. Such omissions make the predictions of hydrological impacts of climate change a futile exercise when the ratio of the annual runoff in a very wet year and that in a dry year is very high. A quick comparison between the v

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Preface

stream flows of wet years with that of dry years of major rivers of the semi-arid regions of India, such as Godavari, Pennar, Cauvery and Krishna, will illustrate this point in ample measure. Analysis of such complex hydrological processes calls for pragmatic approaches that suit the local weather, land use and soil conditions rather than using routine models that predict average conditions that never occur in the basin in real life. Capturing the stresses that the variations in hydrological conditions induce on the socio-economic system in terms of changes in irrigation water availability, drinking water supplies and sanitation is more important than capturing the small changes in the precipitation and its consequences on basin yield and water supplies. In spite of the growing body of research on climate change and water in India, there is too little clarity on how reduction or increase in rainfall due to climate change in different river basins would impact basin water availability and water supply situation on an annual basis and the risks they pose to the communities which are dependent on such systems. This would require complex analytical frameworks that are compatible with real-life situation vis-à-vis weather conditions, hydrology, water resource system characteristics and socio-economic realities. This is attempted in the volume. While most of the available scientific literature dealt with climate change issues only at the macro and national level, the uniqueness of this volume is that it addresses the same in the specific context of irrigation and water supply and sanitation, with empirical studies both at the national, provincial and local levels with case studies. In addition, practical and policy interventions are suggested to reduce the stresses induced by climate extremes on irrigation and domestic water supply and on the socioeconomic system. We are sure that researchers working on climate impacts on water, practitioners working on climate adaptation and climate resilience in irrigation and WASH, and policy makers working on climate actions in the water sector would find this volume useful. Hyderabad, Telangana, India Mumbai, Maharashtra, India Jaipur, Rajasthan, India New Delhi, Delhi, India

M. Dinesh Kumar Yusuf Kabir Rushabh Hemani Nitin Bassi

Acknowledgement

First of all, the editors of this volume would like to thank Prof. Rathinasamy Maria Saleth, one of the esteemed members of the editorial board of Global Water Policy Series of Springer who has been a friend and philosopher of the lead editor of this volume. It was because of the strong encouragement and continued persuasion from Prof. Saleth that we decided to prepare and submit a proposal for an edited volume to the series editor Prof. Arial Dinar sometime during the last year. The initial proposal for the book had undergone several changes based on two rounds of review by the members of the editorial board, whose comments and suggestions had immensely helped improve the richness of the contents and focus of this volume. The contents proposed initially for the volume were more of empirical research on the impact of climate variability on water supply and sanitation in India. This has changed to accommodate more work on irrigation, and focus on policy aspects have been strengthened. The editors would like to express a deep sense of gratitude to all the members of the editorial board of the series for their valuable comments. Special thanks are due to Prof. Arial Dinar who was very supportive of the idea of having a book from India on the theme. We would also like to profusely thank Ms. Rajeshwari Chandrasekar and Ms. Isabelle Bardem, the heads of UNICEF field offices in Mumbai and Jaipur, respectively, who had not only permitted their colleagues, Yusuf Kabir and Rushabh Hemani, to be co-editors of this volume, but also encouraged their other colleagues to contribute chapters based on the outputs of the research their offices had supported on climate variability and WASH (water supply and sanitation and hygiene) to the volume.

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Acknowledgement

Lastly, we would also like to express our deep sense of gratitude to Dr. Saurabh Kumar and Mr. Ajath Sanjeev of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy for their great assistance to bringing this volume to fruition. They helped in obtaining high-quality versions of several of the maps used in this volume. They also worked hard to check, correct and format the references of individual chapters. M. Dinesh Kumar Yusuf Kabir Rushabh Hemani Nitin Bassi

Contents

1

2

3

4

Climate Risks for Irrigation, Water Supply and Sanitation in India: Overview and Synthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M. Dinesh Kumar, Yusuf Kabir, Rushabh Hemani, and Nitin Bassi

1

Climate Variability and Its Implications for Water Management in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vedantam Niranjan, M. Dinesh Kumar, and Nitin Bassi

19

Water Management Challenges of Climate Extremes: A Case Study of Adaptive Strategies and Management Options . . . M. Dinesh Kumar and Nitin Bassi

45

Managing Climate-Induced Water Risks: A Case Study of Institutional Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M. Dinesh Kumar and Nitin Bassi

91

5

Planning for Water Resources Management Under Climatic Extremes: The Case Study of a Hyper-Arid Region . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 M. Dinesh Kumar, A. J. James, and Nitin Bassi

6

Planning of Rural Water Supply Systems: Role of Climatic Factors and Other Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Nitin Bassi, Yusuf Kabir, and Anand Ghodke

7

A Framework for Assessing Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 M. Dinesh Kumar, Arijit Ganguly, Yusuf Kabir, and Omkar Khare

8

Mapping Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene in Maharashtra . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Arijit Ganguly, Yusuf Kabir, Omkar Khare, and Anand Ghodke

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Contents

9

Predictions of Disease Spikes Induced by Climate Variability: A Pilot Real Time Forecasting Model Project from Maharashtra, India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 Sujata Saunik, Pratip Shil, Subrata N. Das, Sangita P. Rajankar, Omkar Khare, Krishna A. Hosalikar, and Yusuf Kabir

10

Mapping Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene in Rajasthan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Rushabh Hemani, Nitin Bassi, M. Dinesh Kumar, and Urvashi Chandra

11

Action Plans for Building Climate-Resilient Water Supply and Sanitation Systems: Results from Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287 Nitin Bassi, Rushabh Hemani, and Prasoon Mankad

12

Managing Climate-Induced Water Stress Across the Agro-Ecological Regions of India: Options and Strategies . . . . . . . . 313 M. Dinesh Kumar, Nitin Bassi, Rushabh Hemani, and Yusuf Kabir

13

Conclusions and Areas for Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355 M. Dinesh Kumar, Yusuf Kabir, Rushabh Hemani, and Nitin Bassi

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369

Contributors

Nitin Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India Urvashi Chandra UNICEF, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India Subrata N. Das Maharashtra Remote Sensing Application Centre, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India Arijit Ganguly PwC India, Kolkata, West Bengal, India Anand Ghodke UNICEF Field Office for Maharashtra, Mumbai, India Rushabh Hemani UNICEF, Jaipur Field Office, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India Krishna A. Hosalikar Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Mumbai, Maharashtra, India A. J. James Consultant, Natural Resource Economics, Cochin, Kerala, India Yusuf Kabir UNICEF Mumbai Field Office, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India Omkar Khare UNICEF Field Office for Maharashtra, Mumbai, India M. Dinesh Kumar Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India Prasoon Mankad UNICEF Rajasthan State Office, Jaipur, India Vedantam Niranjan Freelancer (Environment Specialist), Hyderabad, Telangana, India Sangita P. Rajankar Maharashtra Remote Sensing Application Centre, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India Sujata Saunik Skill Development & Entrepreneurship Department, Government of Maharashtra, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India Pratip Shil ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune, Maharashtra, India xi

About the Editors

M. Dinesh Kumar did his B-Tech in Civil Engineering in 1988, M. E. in Water Resources Management in 1991 and Ph. D in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF; international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (US), and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala). He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters, and many journal articles. He has published in many international peer-reviewed journals viz., Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Management, Int. Journal of WRD and Water Economics and Policy. He is currently also Associate Editor of Water Policy and Member of the Editorial Board of Int. Journal of WRD. His research works of global relevance are: integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water & food security challenges; climate risk in WASH; and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. Yusuf Kabir’s areas of specialization are Rural Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation, Environment, Climate Change Adaptations, and Sustainable Development. He has two post-graduate degrees and had attended several International certificate courses. His first master’s degree is in Environment Engineering and Management from India’s premier management Institute: Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management (IISWBM), and the second one is in Sustainable Development from Staffordshire University, U.K. Yusuf is a Commonwealth scholar. He has several publications in International Journals, Papers, and Books on water and sanitation issues and State Level Committee Members of different state bodies and knowledge management platforms of CSR. xiii

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About the Editors

He is working in the Water, Sanitation and Environment sector for the last 20 years. He is with UNICEF India since 2007. Prior to that he worked with organizations like DFID, National Level NGOs, Social and Marketing research consultancy firms like GFK-MODE, ORG India Pvt Ltd. He is a commonwealth scholar and a trained policy writer from Central European University, Budapest, Hungary where he had undergone a summer course on ‘Evidence-Based Policy Formulation’. He runs a blog on Sanitation in the name of WASH Garage: Blog: http://safaiwala.blogspot.in/ Rushabh Hemani is a development professional with over fifteen years of comprehensive work experience in the field of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH). He is currently working as WASH Specialist in UNICEF Rajasthan state Office and has also worked in Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Assam Offices of UNICEF in India. His core area of work in UNICEF includes water safety and security, climateresilient WASH pilot, reducing open defecation, WASH in schools, pre-schools, health centers as well as social and behavior change communication. He has worked across several partners including Government, civil society organizations, academic institutions, and other development partners. He has been actively engaged in the development of various knowledge management products including process documentation, monograph and technical papers on issues concerning WASH. Some of his work has been published as journal papers and also a chapter in a book. Nitin Bassi is a Natural Resource Management specialist (M. Phil) having nearly 13 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy, and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a Principal Researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include River Basin and Catchment Assessment, Water Accounting, Institutional and Policy Analysis in Irrigation and Water Supply Management, Water Quality Analysis, Climate Variability, and Climate-induced Water Risk Analysis and Wetland Management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in projects, research studies, and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT, and SDTT. He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD & GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge UK, and has several book chapters, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal of Water Resources Development; Journal of Hydrology; and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.

List of Figures

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List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 Fig. 2.2 Fig. 2.3 Fig. 2.4

Fig. 2.5

Fig. 2.6

Fig. 2.7

Fig. 2.8

Fig. 2.9 Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2

Spatial variation in rainfall of India. (Source: Kumar 2010 (Based on Pisharoty 1990)) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Monthly mean rainfall and temperature in India (1900–2009). (Source: Authors’ analysis based on World Bank data) . . . . . . . . . . Spatial variation in coefficient of variation in annual rainfall of India. (Source: Kumar 2010 (Based on Pisharoty 1990)) . . . . . Average relative humidity in India. (Source: Atlas of the Biosphere, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin, Madison) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relative humidity and wind speed–Aurangabad (2009–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis using India Meteorological Department (IMD) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Temperature and rainfall of Aurangabad (2009–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis using India Meteorological Department (IMD) data set) .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . . .. . Wind speed–Aurangabad (2009–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis using India Meteorological Department (IMD) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Variation in solar radiation in India. (Source: India solar resources maps (http://www.mnre.gov.in/sec/solar-assmnt.htm) developed by the US national renewable energy laboratory in cooperation with ministry of new and renewable energy, Government of India) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Variation in potential evaporation in India. (Source: Kumar 2010) . . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . Estimated stream-flows upstream of Hirakud reservoir in Chhattisgarh. (Source: Authors’ estimate based on the CWC data) . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. Total estimated monsoon and non-monsoon flows in Mahanadi upstream of Hirakud reservoir. (Source: Authors’ estimate based on the CWC data) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25 26 27

29

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35 37

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Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4

Fig. 3.5

Fig. 3.6

Fig. 3.7

Fig. 3.8

Fig. 3.9

Fig. 3.10

Fig. 3.11

Fig. 3.12

Fig. 3.13

Fig. 3.14

Fig. 3.15

Fig. 3.16

List of Figures

Rainfall-runoff relationship, Andhiyarkore. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre) .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . Rainfall-runoff relationship, Kurubhata. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre) .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . Average monsoon water level fluctuations (1996–2014) in MMB across observation wells. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average water level fluctuation in MMB during monsoon across years (1999–2014). (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Water level fluctuation during monsoon vs pre-monsoon depth t water level: Patsenduri. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Long-term change in water levels in observation wells in mid Mahanadi basin: 1996–2014. (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Long-term average (1996–2014) of water level fluctuation in UMB during monsoon in different observation wells. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average water level fluctuations in observation wells during monsoon in UMB: 1996–2014. (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . Long-term change in pre-monsoon water levels in different ob. wells (1996–2014). (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Monsoon water level fluctuation vs pre-monsoon water levels: Abhanpur. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rainfall trend indicated by point rainfall in Chhattisgarh. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rainy days indicated by point rainfall in Chhattisgarh. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Duration of monsoon as recorded in Admabad Tandula. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Duration of monsoon as recorded in Dararikorba. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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List of Figures

Fig. 3.17

Fig. 3.18

Fig. 3.19

Fig. 3.20

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Duration of monsoon over Khutaghat. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre) .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . Cropping and irrigation pattern in Chhattisgarh, Mahanadi basin. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on the data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India) . Irrigation intensity vs canal irrigation. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India) . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . WEAP estimated outflows from Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on the WEAP model results) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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83

Fig. 4.1

Institutional arrangements for water management in Mahanadi river basinSource: Based on Authors’ own analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

Fig. 5.1

Observed streamflows at Gandhav, Luni river basin (1970–71 to 2009–10). (Source: Authors’ estimates using CWC data) . . . . . . . Weighted average annual rainfall: Luni river basin (1957–2012). (Source: Authors’ estimates based on data from the Rajasthan Water Resources Department) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rainfall-runoff relationship for Luni river basin (1971–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from the Rajasthan Water Resources Department) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Reference evapotranspiration for two locations in Luni river basin. (Source: Authors’ own estimates) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fig. 5.2

Fig. 5.3

Fig. 5.4 Fig. 6.1 Fig. 6.2 Fig. 8.1 Fig. 8.2

Fig. 8.3

Fig. 8.4

Fig. 8.5

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134 136

Access to piped water across the income distribution in India. (Source: Based on data presented in Jalan and Ravallion 2003) 166 Volume of water required for hydration. (Source: Based on data presented in Howard and Bartram 2003) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Map (not to scale) showing different regions of Maharashtra state. (Map Source: IndiaSpend) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Marathwada region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Vidarbha region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Marathwada region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Vidarbha region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Fig. 8.6

Fig. 8.7

Fig. 8.8

Fig. 9.1

Fig. 9.2

Fig. 10.1 Fig. 10.2

Fig. 10.3 Fig. 10.4

Fig. 10.5 Fig. 10.6

Fig. 10.7

Fig. 10.8 Fig. 10.9 Fig. 10.10 Fig. 10.11 Fig. 10.12

List of Figures

Map showing extent of hazard in the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha region. (Source: Prepared by authors using computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 Map showing extent of exposure in the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha region. (Source: Prepared by authors using computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 Map showing degree of vulnerability in the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha region. (Source: Prepared by authors using computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219 (a) Disease cases reported. (b) Weather parameters. (c) GIS representation of the cases count. (d) Sanitation data representation. (Source: MRSAC, Government of Maharashtra) 233 (a) Dengue occurrences and meteorological parameters in Nagpur district. (b) Actual number of dengue cases (D) and Estimated number of cases (estD) from the Poisson regression model. Time period covered 2012–2015. (Source: Authors’ own analysis) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 Sources of drinking water in different divisions of rural Rajasthan. (Source: Census India 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sources of drinking water—comparisons between western and eastern rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on Census India 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Access to water supply in different divisions of rural Rajasthan. (Source: Census India 2011) . . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . Physical access to water supply sources in eastern and western parts of rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Census of India 2011) . . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . Types of sanitation facility in different divisions of rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Census of India 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Comparison of types of sanitation—eastern and western rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on Census of India 2011) . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . Per capita renewable water availability in different river basins of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017) . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . WASH hazard sub-index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WASH system exposure sub-index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vulnerability sub-index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Climate risk index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The three dimensions of risk in Rajasthan. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

247

247 248

248 249

250

255 274 274 275 275 276

List of Figures

xix

Fig. 10.13

Water-related diseases versus climate risk index in WASH. (Source: Authors’ own analysis) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281

Fig. 11.1

Map showing the location of Rajasthan and its different divisions and districts. (Source: Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mean monthly rainfall of Barmer District (2006–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from Water Resources Department, Government of Rajasthan) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Blockwise HHs access to drinking water sources in rural areas of Barmer District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011a) . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . Blockwise access to sanitation facilities within the HH premises in rural areas of Barmer District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011a) . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . Blockwise HHs access to drinking water sources in rural areas of Sirohi District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011b) . .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . Blockwise access to sanitation facilities within the HH premises in rural areas of Sirohi District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011b) . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . .

Fig. 11.2

Fig. 11.3

Fig. 11.4

Fig. 11.5

Fig. 11.6

Fig. 12.1 Fig. 12.2 Fig. 12.3 Fig. 12.4 Fig. 12.5 Fig. 12.6

Fig. 12.7 Fig. 12.8 Fig. 12.9

River basins of India. (Source: CWC, Government of India) . . . . Average rainfall and runoff rates of major river basins of India. (Source: CWC, Government of India) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Geohydrology of India. (Source: CGWB, Government of India) Topography of India. (Source: CWC and NRSC, Government of India) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Households’ access to tap water in India (%): state-wise. (Source: Based on Census of India 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Live storage of large dams in major Indian states (billion cubic metre). (Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from the CWC, Government of India) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Godavari river basin. (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014) . Map of Karnataka showing major river basins. (Source: Water Resources Department, Government of Karnataka) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Tamil Nadu showing the major river basins. (Source: Water Resources Department, Government of Tamil Nadu) . . . .

290

293

295

295

297

298 316 318 319 321 327

328 330 332 333

List of Maps and Diagram

Map 3.1 Map 3.2 Map 3.3

Map 3.4

Map 3.5 Map 10.1

Map 10.2 Map 10.3

Map 10.4

Map 10.5 Map 10.6

Drainage-basins of Mahanadi river. (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mahanadi basin showing major water systems. (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Showing the aquifer systems of Chhattisgarh, with Mahanadi basin boundary. (Source: CGWB, North Central Chhattisgarh Region, 2012) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Location of groundwater observation wells in middle Mahanadi basin (only wells in Chhattisgarh portion were considered for analysis). (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014) . . . . Location of groundwater observation wells in Upper Mahanadi basin. (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rainfall in different districts of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of soils. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Physiography and drainage of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Geo-hydrological map of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Groundwater salinity-affected areas in Rajasthan. (Source: Ground Water Department, Government of Rajasthan) . . . . . . . Fluoride-affected areas in Rajasthan. (Source: Ground Water Department, Government of Rajasthan) . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . .. .

48 50

57

58 63

252 253

254

256 258 258

xxi

xxii

Map 10.7

Map 10.8 Map 10.9

Map 10.10

Map 10.11 Map 10.12

Map 12.1 Map 12.2 Map 12.3 Map 12.4 Diagram 3.1 Plate 5.1

List of Maps and Diagram

Frequency of occurrence of droughts in different districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Disaster Management, Relief & Civil Defence Department, Government of Rajasthan) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Variation in population density across Rajasthan districts. (Source: Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP)) . Variation in climate hazards (having implications for WASH) across districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Variation in exposure of the WASH systems to climate hazards across districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values) .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . Variation in vulnerability to climate hazards. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . Variation in climate risk in WASH across districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Showing depth to groundwater level. (Source: CGWB, Government of India) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Showing EC in micro siemens/cm at 25 C. (Source: CGWB 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Showing % blocks in the districts reported excessive fluorides in groundwater. (Source: CGWB 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Showing percentage of blocks affected by arsenic in groundwater. (Source: CGWB 2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . WEAP configuration for Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin. (Source: Model configured by the Authors) . . . . . . . . . . . . .

259 262

276

277 277

278 323 324 325 326 78

Drainage map of Luni Basin, western Rajasthan (Area: 69,000 km2). (Source: Study on Planning of Water Resources of Rajasthan, Draft Final report submitted to SWRPD, GoR, Tahal Consultants, December 2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

List of Tables

Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 3.6

Table 3.7 Table 3.8

Table 3.9

Table 3.10 Table 3.11

Rainfall variability regimes of selected Indian states . . . . . . . . . . . . Characteristics of relative humidity. (Location: Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Characteristics of temperature (location: Aurangabad, Maharashtra) .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . Peak sunlight hours in different regions of India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Inter-annual variation in stream-flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rainfall-runoff models for the four selected catchments . . . . . . . . Area under different geological formations in Mahanadi basin drainage area of Chhattisgarh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Analysis of point rainfall of seven locations in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Analysis of data of rainy days of seven rain gauge stations in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gross and live storage capacity of major reservoir projects in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin (capacity exceeding 100 MCM) . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . Estimated irrigation water use rates for different crops in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Past growth trends in rural and urban population and projected growth in population in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . Overall water demand, water supply requirement and actual water supply under different scenarios in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin as estimated by the WEAP model . . . . . . . . Streamflow under different scenarios in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin as estimated by the WEAP model . . . . . . . . Water balance during drought years (drought scenario) in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin as estimated by the WEAP model . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . .

28 30 32 36 51 56 56 67 68

71 76

77

80 81

82 xxiii

xxiv

Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 5.7 Table 5.8 Table 5.9 Table 5.10 Table 5.11 Table 5.12 Table 5.13 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 7.1

List of Tables

Gauging stations maintained by the central agencies in the Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 Gauging stations maintained by the state agencies in the Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Scheme-wise coverage of rural water supply estimated for the Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Groundwater resources in Luni river basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Imported water in Luni river basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Estimated monthly potential evaporation values for two locations in Luni river basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Estimated consumptive water use in irrigation in Luni river basin . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . Crop water demand, Pali district, 2011–12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Indicative water requirements for different types of livestock . . Current and projected sectoral water demands (MCM) . . . . . . . . . . Block-wise estimates of static and dynamic groundwater resources of Pali (2005–09) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Available water supplies from surface and underground sources Agricultural water demand and water availability, Pali district, 2011–12 (MCM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Potential impact of drip irrigation on row crops in Pali district (100% coverage): 2011–12 .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . Impact of plastic mulching on rain-fed crops in Pali district (2011–12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . Water management scenarios for the district: 2011–25 . . . . . . . . . . Water use by rural households (lpcd) in developing countries in relation to access to water supply .. . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . Drinking water requirement for animals in different livestock production systems . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . Voluntary water intake of livestock under different climatic conditions . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Household domestic and productive water needs as estimated for different climates, activity levels and diet requirements . . . . .

129 135 137 139 145 147 149 152 154 154 155 155 156 170 171 172 173

Table 7.2

Identified factors influencing climate-induced risk in rural water and sanitation .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 193 Matrix for computing the values of various Indices for assessing the climate-induced risk in water and sanitation in Maharashtra .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . . .. . .. 199

Table 8.1

Proposed financial provision for drinking water sector in Maharashtra . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . 220

List of Tables

Table 10.1 Table 10.2 Table 10.3 Table 10.4 Table 10.5 Table 10.6 Table 10.7 Table 10.8 Table 10.9 Table 11.1 Table 11.2 Table 11.3

xxv

Number of villages covered by different types of water supply schemes (as on 2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Types of household access to water supply in rural and urban areas (as on 2011) . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . Percentage of household by availability of toilet connectivity in Rajasthan . .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . Population of different types of livestock in Rajasthan . . . . . . . . . . Norms on per capita water supply per day as per PHED, Rajasthan . . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. .. . .. . .. Identified factors influencing climate-induced risk in rural water and sanitation .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . Computed values of WASH risk index and sub-indices . . . . . . . . . Public health impacts of disruptions in WASH caused by climate extremes in Rajasthan .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . Frequency analysis of climate risk in WASH and occurrence of water-related diseases .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . .. .

245 246 249 264 265 268 272 279 281

Blockwise status of groundwater resources (2009) in Barmer District . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294 Blockwise groundwater resources (2009) in Sirohi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297 Block-specific suggested interventions for climate-resilient water supply infrastructure in Barmer and Sirohi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306

Chapter 1

Climate Risks for Irrigation, Water Supply and Sanitation in India: Overview and Synthesis M. Dinesh Kumar, Yusuf Kabir, Rushabh Hemani, and Nitin Bassi

Abstract This chapter will provide the overall context and setting for the volume. Based on available empirical data, it will discuss the issue of variability in rainfall and other climatic parameters in India. It will illustrate the need for assessing the impact of climate variability on water resources, by discussing its implications for the design of water management systems vis-à-vis the stress they induce on water flows and alterations they affect in the demand for water in various sectors, including domestic sector. It will also discuss the need for assessing the climate-induced risk in WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene systems), particularly due to extreme climatic conditions and events, for designing water supply and sanitation systems that are climate-resilient, risk informed and sustainable. The chapter will also present the objectives and scope of the book, and the outline of individual chapters. Keywords Climate variability · Water resources · Water management systems · Climate-induced risk · Climate-resilient WASH

M. Dinesh Kumar (*) Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India e-mail: [email protected] Y. Kabir UNICEF Mumbai Field Office, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India e-mail: [email protected] R. Hemani UNICEF, Jaipur Field Office, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India e-mail: [email protected] N. Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_1

1

2

1.1

M. Dinesh Kumar et al.

Context

The last nearly one and half decades have witnessed a great deal of enthusiasm among climate researchers from all over the world to work on climate change issues, particularly in the Asia Pacific region. It has its origin in the strong belief based on limited evidence to the effect that the global climate is undergoing unprecedented changes, which went unnoticed in the recorded human history, in terms of change in temperature. The monsoon weather system of the Asia-Pacific region, which is a complex system and not so easily amenable to predictions by weather forecasting models, and which has significant implications for India’s climate, has also been a subject of scientific inquiry in the recent past to know what would be the impact of climate change on it. Understanding the cause of monsoon is crucial to deepening our understanding of how monsoon in India would change as a result of larger changes occurring in global and regional climate. There are contesting theories about the cause of Monsoon. Halley (1753) suggested that the primary cause of the monsoon was the differential heating between the ocean and land. This is still considered as the basic mechanism for the monsoon by several scientists (e.g. Webster 1987). In an alternative hypothesis, monsoon is considered as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (Charney 1967). The two hypotheses have very different implications for the variability of the monsoon (Gadgil 2003). Nevertheless, the Indian sub-continent and the ocean surrounding it is at the centre of the monsoon region (Gadgil 2003). Indian Monsoon has been a subject of intensive study for the spatial and temporal (season and annual) variations (Gadgil 2003; Pisharoty 1990). Though climate modellers have used both Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models or Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) to predict changes in monsoon precipitation for different scenarios of temperature change, the ‘scientific accuracy’ or robustness of such models have been a subject of debate among climate scientists in India and elsewhere. The underlying concern has been that ‘how the temporal variability that exists in monsoon precipitation in different regions and the precipitation variation across space get captured in the ‘climate simulation models’, and how far the model predictions address these key characteristics of Indian monsoon’. ‘Climate variability’ has significant implications for the way climate change predictions need to be made for the sub-continent. An understanding of ‘climate variability’ and its impact on hydrological systems would also help understand the likely impact of the change in climate over time on the hydrological system and water resources. Unfortunately, these concerns were very narrowly addressed by the advocates of climate change, with the key contention being the increase in variability in precipitation with a greater frequency of extreme events such as floods and droughts. Much less is known about the impact that these hydrological stresses will have on the performance of irrigation systems, and on the communities in terms of risk in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). That said, the rainfall and climatic variables (solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, and temperature) in India display

1 Climate Risks for Irrigation, Water Supply and Sanitation in India: Overview. . .

3

remarkable spatial and temporal variation. The temporal variation includes not only inter-annual and inter-seasonal but also intra-day variations.

1.1.1

Rainfall Variability in India

India receives precipitation from two sources, viz., rainfall and snowfall. But rainfall is the major source of precipitation in terms of the geographical area which benefits from it, and also the total quantum of water produced from the precipitation. Snowfall occurs only in the Himalayas during the winter season and benefits the hydrological system through the snow-fed rivers viz., Ganges, and the Indus which originate from the Himalayas. However, in this note, we would discuss the rainfall which occurs in different parts of the Indian sub-continent. Pisharoty (1990) discussed the characteristics of the Indian monsoon, particularly the spatial and temporal variations in the rainfall, and the rainy days, and spatial variation in potential evaporation. Analysis shows that Gujarat and Rajasthan have 11% and 42% area, respectively, experiencing extremely low rainfalls (< 300 mm); and 39 and 32%, respectively under low rainfall (300–600 mm). The other states by and large fall in the medium rainfall (600–1000 mm) and high rainfall (1000–1500 mm) regimes. In the case of Maharashtra, MP, AP, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, a lion’s share (85% and above) falls in medium rainfall regime, and in the case of Orissa and Chhattisgarh, 45 and 40%, respectively fall in high rainfall regime. The Indian monsoon is characterized by significant inter-annual variability and more or less follows a cyclic pattern of high and low rainfall. Analysis shows that the year to year variation in annual rainfall is high in regions of low rainfall and low in regions of high rainfall. In regions such as western Rajasthan and Kachchh, the coefficient of variation in the rainfall is as high as 50% and above. In the north eastern region and in the Western Ghats region, the coefficient of variation in rainfall is very low, meaning high dependability. The Indian monsoon is also known for its erratic nature, for many regions. The regions which receive fewer days of rain coincide with those experiencing low rainfall and high evaporation and high variability in rainfall. The regions which experience many wet days coincide with those which experience high and reliable rainfall.

1.1.2

Temporal Variability in India’s Climate

Climate is the net effect of the interplay of precipitation, humidity, temperature of the atmosphere, winds (speed) and rainfall. Atmospheric temperature and temperature on the surface of the earth is the effect of solar radiation. Besides rainfall, the other climate parameters also vary from region to region, influenced by their geographic

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positioning with respect to oceans, mountains, desert, and the latitude and longitude, and would change with change in seasons, that is, rainy season, winter and summer. Humidity is a measure of the amount of vapour in the air, and is measured in terms of the vapour pressure of the air. While humidity itself is a climate variable, it also interacts strongly with other climate variables. The humidity is affected by winds and by rainfall. At the same time, humidity affects the energy budget and controls the movement of vapour from the surface of water bodies and transpiration from plants—the former affecting water supplies and the latter affecting water demands in agriculture. Coastal areas are generally more humid than inland areas, so are the areas receiving higher rainfall over extended time periods. Normally, if the amount of moisture in the air remains the same, then an increase in temperature would reduce relative humidity as warmer air can hold more moisture than cold air. But, in humid tropics, an increase in temperature would also result in higher evaporation adding to the atmospheric vapour content, and hence there would be no reduction in relative humidity. Normally, in any region, the relative humidity in an area would increase during monsoon, though the variation would be much higher in hot climates. Kumar (2018) reported the following points with regard to variation in humidity between two consecutive years, that is, 2009 and 2010: (1) the highest difference encountered in the relative humidity values between morning and evening of any day over the entire year during 2009 and 2010 is higher than the difference in relative humidity values for both morning and evening between the most humid day and the least humid day of the year; (2) relative humidity is excessively high in the range of 80–90% during the rainy season; and (3) the RH values for both morning and evening for the same day of the month can vary significantly between years.

1.1.3

Spatial Variability in Climate

Potential evaporation for a particular location is the net result of the solar radiation flux, wind speed and relative humidity experienced in that location and to a lesser extent the temperature, and is a strong indicator of the location’s climate, along with rainfall. This parameter is extensively used in hydrology for estimating water losses from open reservoirs and water requirements for crop physiological processes. The variations in solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity across space in India ultimately result in significant variation in potential evaporation (PE). Lower rainfall, coupled with higher PE reduces the runoff potential and high evaporation from the impounded runoff, thereby increasing the dryness (Hurd et al. 1999). Variation in these parameters with respect to space and time also results in significant variation in reference evapotranspiration values and therefore potential evapotranspiration (PET) for the same crop across regions and also within the same regions with time, respectively (Howell and Evett 2004).

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A general pattern is encountered in the spatial variation of PE across India. Regions with relatively low rainfall are found to have higher potential evapotranspiration due to relatively low humidity, and a higher number of sunny days (Pisharoty 1990). Analysis of spatial data on mean annual rainfall and mean annual potential evaporation shows that regions which have very low rainfall are also the regions which experience very high evaporation and vice versa. The reason is these regions experience rainfall in very few rainy days, which increases the number of days of sunshine, increasing the temperature. The lower rainfall and prolonged days of sunshine also reduce the relative humidity. Both the factors together increase the annual evaporation rate.

1.2

Rationale for the Book

In the past couple of decades, researchers and academicians in the field of climate, water and agriculture in India have tried to predict future changes in India’s climate at various scale from sub-continental level to regional level to basin level, using various assumptions about likely changes in temperature in the future and by using GCMs and RCMs. The most important predicted variable is the precipitation/ rainfall. However, none of the climate models have tried to factor in variability in climate, particularly the inter-annual variability in temperature and rainfall in the model. The model predictions are based on average values, significantly reducing the utility of such predictions for regions that experience high variability in climate factors (Kumar and Rao 2012; van Oldenborgh et al. 2013). The reason is that many a time, the value of the predicted variable is less than the percentage change in the annual mean value of the variable that the region experiences between a dry year and a wet year. From a practical point of view, historically, many of the largest falls in crop productivity have been attributed to anomalously low precipitation events (Kumar et al. 2004; Sivakumar et al. 2005), and greater risks to food security may be posed by changes in year-to-year variability and extreme weather events (Gornall et al. 2010) and therefore knowing the magnitude of an extreme event is more important. In the same way, the model predictions of the impact of climate change on water resources done at basin scales, have also failed to capture the impact of variability in precipitation and many other weather parameters on the hydrological processes and their outcomes, that is, streamflows and groundwater recharge, in the basin. Analysis of such complex processes calls for pragmatic approaches that suit the local specific context rather than using routine models that predict average conditions that never occur in the basin in a real-life situation. From a purely utilitarian perspective, what one would like to know is the ‘reference levels’ to which these increase and reduction are likely to occur and how it would look like in dry and wet years (Kumar and Rao 2012). More importantly, from a water management perspective, capturing the current variations in the hydrological conditions in the basin and the stress that induces on the socioeconomic

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system might appear to be more important than capturing the small changes in the precipitation and its consequences on basin yield and water supplies. Currently, there is too little clarity on how reduction or increase in rainfall due to climate change in different river basins would impact basin water availability and water supply situation on an annual basis. This would require a complex modelling exercise. This is attempted in the volume, through an assessment of the climate-induced threat to irrigation water supplies, climate-induced risk in WASH faced by communities, and the public health hazards associated with climate extremes. More importantly, climate change issues have been addressed in the literature only at the macro and national levels. But this volume addresses the same in the specific context of irrigation and water supply and sanitation, with empirical studies both at the national, provincial and local levels with case studies.

1.2.1

Analyzing the Implications for Water Management Institutions

When water flow varies and the demand for water change, water management strategies also have to change. The institutions dealing with water resources management and water supply provisions have to adapt to the changing situation with regard to water availability and water demands. In the same river basin, the interventions to deal with a drought situation will be different from the one adopted during a wet year when the flows are excessively high. Hence, the approach to water management has to change to give more emphasis to institutions and market instruments such as water rights, water allocation, water pricing, etc. than mere engineering interventions that focus on resource appropriation and distribution that remain largely static, as the rules and criteria concerning water rights, water allocation and water pricing can be changed depending on the situation. However, traditional water institutions are designed to deal with either water supply provisions or flood control.

1.2.2

Implications of Regional Climate for Planning and Designing of WASH Systems

Climate and environmental conditions can significantly impact the way water supply and sanitation systems perform in a region or locality. While climatic variability affects the availability of water that can be tapped for water supply provisioning, and the water ecology of a region, in rural areas climatic conditions also influence the demand for water for domestic and livestock uses and therefore can affect the performance of the WASH systems. The environmental conditions (climate, soils, geohydrology and rainfall) influence the way onsite sanitation systems

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contaminates/pollutes water resources and water sources, thereby having a bearing on their performance. Therefore, it is important that they are considered in the planning and designing of WASH systems. However, planning and design of WASH systems in India are based on simplistic considerations and never consider the complex way in which these factors can influence their performance.

1.2.3

Designing Climate-Resilient WASH Systems, Informed by Risk Assessment

Like water resources, climate extremes can pose a serious threat to WASH systems also. Assessing climate-induced risk in WASH is critical to designing WASH systems that are climate-resilient and sustainable. While analyzing the impact of climate change on water resource systems appears to be complex, a lot more difficult is the analysis of the impact of climate change on water supply, sanitation and hygiene. One reason for this is that climate variability itself induces high risk due to disruptions in water supply and sanitation conditions and hygiene practices. In most regions of India, both urban and rural areas face disruptions in water supply during droughts, with reduced ability of the system to supply water on a regular basis and in adequate quantities as the source of water feeding the system dries up or experiences pressure from other sectors of water use such as irrigation. On the other hand, there are certain large pockets in the naturally water-scarce regions that face frequent droughts of high intensity, yet having water supply systems that are very resilient to such events, the reason being that there are many important factors other than the degree of hazard that ultimately determines the degree of risk induced by climate extremes on the WASH system. The point is that climate risk is a composite of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (WMO 2009). The degree of risks in water supply and sanitation induced by climate variability and change depends on a variety of natural, physical, social, economic, cultural, environmental and institutional factors. Reducing the exposure and vulnerability, and also strengthening the capacity of the system and the communities to adapt will increase resilience to potential adverse impacts of climate-induced risks. For climate-resilient development of WASH programmes in any locality, understanding the various factors influencing the climate risks and the local contexts in relation to these factors are extremely important (source: based on GWP and UNICEF 2014; UNICEF 2016). The magnitude of climate-induced hazards to the WASH system is determined by a whole range of natural and physical factors, while the hazards can be in the form of hydrological droughts, floods, cyclones, waterlogging of low-lying areas, severe contamination of surface water bodies and shallow aquifers with biological matter and pathogens, groundwater depletion and drying up of reservoirs, etc. That said, the degree of exposure of the WASH systems to the climate hazards is determined by a whole range of natural, physical, socioeconomic and institutional

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factors, wherein the exposure is in the form of reduced supply of water from the public system for domestic water needs and proper personal hygiene and sanitation resulting from reduced water availability in the natural system due to hydrological droughts; damage to water supply pipelines due to heavy storms, cyclones and floods; extent of damage to sanitation infrastructure due to cyclones and floods; the extent to which access to improved water sources and sanitation facilities is affected due to flooding and cyclones; degree of contamination of potable water carried through pipes from sewage due to pipeline breakage, and contamination of water in shallow drinking water wells; and precautions taken by the water utilities and disaster mitigation agencies to prevent water contamination and damage to water-supply infrastructure. Similarly, the degree of community vulnerability to the climate-induced risks in water supply and sanitation is determined by a whole range of natural, social, cultural, economic and institutional factors (Kabir et al. 2016). This vulnerability can be due to lack of alternate sources of fresh water for drinking and domestic and livestock uses such as private wells, ponds and hand pumps; the extent of buffer storage of water at the household level; the extent of facilities available for treatment of contaminated water for portability; lack of financial resources with the communities and households to create temporary infrastructure for sanitation; presence or absence of information and communities systems available to spread warnings about incoming floods, cyclones, potential water contamination, damage to water infrastructure, the spread of water-borne diseases, and the areas likely to be affected; poor or lack of access to medical facilities to protect the members of the communities from water-borne diseases; and the presence or absence of social ingenuity within the communities to overcome crisis situations arising out of disruptions in WASH. Not only the country, but the provinces (states) within the country also display wide variability in its natural environment such as climate, hydrology, geology, geohydrology, soils and topography across regions and between years and seasons. This affects the availability and quality of water for drinking and domestic uses. This variability also has implications for the occurrence of climate-induced hazards such as hydrological droughts, lowering of groundwater levels, waterlogging and floods manifested by changes in availability and quality of water in the natural system for water supply purposes. Frequent floods are common in the high rainfall, sub-humid regions of eastern Gangetic plains (Kumar et al. 2012). Moderate to severe drought is common in western and large parts of peninsular India. Lowering of groundwater levels is observed in the arid and semi-arid area, and this is secular and long term in the areas with deep alluvium within such regions (Kumar 2007). The difference in natural environment also has differential impacts on the exposure of the WASH system to natural hazards, say for instance environmental sanitation. Shallow groundwater areas with sandy soils are most exposed to bacteriological contamination of drinking water wells from faecal matter due to poor sanitation during floods. The natural environment also determines the vulnerability of communities to health problems associated with poor sanitation and hygiene, through waterlogging, flooding, water contamination, temperature changes, etc. For instance, vector-borne diseases spread faster in cold and humid climates as compared

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to hot and arid ones. Under poor sanitation conditions, both water-borne and waterbased diseases spread in high rainfall, humid, plain areas as compared to low rainfall, arid areas, with good natural drainage. There is also wide spatial and temporal variation in the physical factors governing the supply of water and access to water supply and sanitation facilities. There are different types of water control (flood control dams, reservoirs for water storage) and water distribution and water supply infrastructure in terms of size and other technical features. Also, there are different types of sanitation systems in terms of their ecological soundness—from simple, single pit latrines to double pit latrines to septic tanks to household latrines connected to sewerage systems, depending on the socioeconomic characteristics (rural or urban) and condition (poor or rich) of the region. The type and characteristics of water control, water distribution, and water supply and sanitation infrastructure have implications for the magnitude of climateinduced hazards and the likelihood of WASH systems being exposed to these natural hazards. The socioeconomic and cultural profiles of the people, which have implications for access to water sources and sanitation facilities and use of water for domestic and productive needs, also vary between regions. This, to a great extent, would determine not only the exposure of the communities to climate-induced, water-related hazards, but also the vulnerability to disruptions in the WASH system caused by these hazards. As regards exposure, poor communities living in low-lying areas especially in cities and towns generally fall victim to flooding and waterlogging problems and face the risks associated with water contamination and poor sanitation, owing to a lack of proper drainage and sewerage networks, whereas the poor communities in remote rural areas and urban fringes also bear the brunt of water scarcity caused by droughts, which result in poor personal hygiene and sanitation. The reason is that most of them do not enjoy individual household water connections and instead are served by local sources such as hand pumps, public wells and stand posts, which become dysfunctional during such natural events. Such areas also suffer from lack of adequate infrastructure for transportation of water through tankers etc. Apart from compromising on personal hygiene needs, members of such households show lesser willingness to adopt improved toilets and resort to open defecation (UNICEF et al. 2013), as fetching large amounts of water from distant sources for flushing toilets, etc. increase their hardship. As regards the linkage between socioeconomic/cultural profiles and ‘vulnerability’, during natural hazards, the socially and economically backward communities often receive the emergency aid from the local governments, aid agencies and NGOs in the form of clean drinking water, medicines, water purifiers, water treatment systems, temporary shelters, food, etc. very late owing to their disadvantages with respect to types of localities they live in, and hence are more vulnerable than people living in rich localities. On the other hand, certain cultural taboos come in the way of socioeconomically rich communities from offering the most needed support to their counterparts from backward communities, during emergencies in terms of providing access to water supply sources and sanitation facilities even.

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Enhanced institutional capabilities in WASH sector can greatly reduce the exposure and vulnerability of the communities to climate-induced natural hazards through a variety of ways and means, such as the following: (i) planning, design and building of river valley projects for water security and flood control; (ii) designing and building climate-resilient water supply and sanitation systems; designing and executing early warning systems for disasters (floods, cyclones, intense storms, etc.); (iii) employing an effective ‘disaster response force’; promoting improved hygiene practices; and (iv) educating the masses about precautions to be exercised during disasters, with respect to use of water for drinking, sanitation and hygiene practices. The capability of state institutions in the WASH sector varies across regions. Also, the overall institutional environment and capability change from state to state and region to region, owing to the presence of local institutions and external agencies promoting WASH activities in certain localities. This can have implications for both exposure to climate-induced hazards and vulnerability to those hazards.

1.3

Objectives and Scope

The objectives of this volume are to: (1) provide the theoretical basis for the line of argument that the available research that analyzes the impacts of climate on hydrology, water resources, and water systems, without factoring in the effect of climate variability, are inadequate and often misleading; (2) to empirically show that the impacts of climate variability on hydrology and water resources, and irrigation, water supply and sanitation systems are far more pronounced than the likely impacts of future change in climate; and (3) to discuss technological, institutional and policy alternatives for reducing these impacts on various competitive use sectors, especially, irrigation, and water supply and sanitation through case studies of river basins in different hydrological settings. To set the context, the volume first presents the long-term trends in precipitation and temperature in different regions of India, and compare them against inter-annual, inter-seasonal and intra-day variations in climatic parameters, to show how their differential impact on water resources. It then provides an empirical analysis of stress caused by climate variability on water resources and water availability for various competitive uses in a river basin in eastern India, with a transposed scenario of climate change. It builds future water balance scenarios for the basin, which factors in both climatic variability and predicted changes in precipitation. Further, it analyses how water management interventions to overcome the current water-related problems in the irrigation sector in the basin, have to be adapted to meet the additional challenge of climate change. For instance, it will examine the new water management challenges that would be posed by the likely changes in the hydrology of the basin resulting from the predicted changes in climate. Such challenges may arise due to the increased occurrence of floods or/and more frequent droughts. The book also provides the

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institutional framework for water resources management in the river basin that could tackle the water management challenges in the wake of climate change, along with droughts and floods. For another river basin, located in the hyper-arid region experiencing frequent droughts and occasional floods, it undertakes a water accounting exercise to identify the types of interventions that can reduce the impact of drought on water resources and irrigation water supplies, and then evaluates the extent to which they can augment the water resources and reduce the demand–supply gap in one of the districts falling in the basin, on the basis of a detailed analysis of the hydrology, climate and cropping systems. The book also provides an analytical framework to assess the risk induced by climate extremes on water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). This is based on climate-induced, water-related hazards (droughts and floods), exposure of the WASH system to the hazard, and the vulnerability of the communities to the disruptions in WASH caused by climate-induced hazards. The climate risk in WASH is assessed for two provinces using this framework. This index helps us identify localities that are prone to climate-induced WASH risks in the form of public health hazards due to a variety of complex (natural, physical, socioeconomic, institutional and policy) factors that include the overall climate and variability in climatic parameters as some of the variables. But it is also important to know, how within the same locality changes in environmental conditions caused by climatic variability could influence WASH-related public health risks. Thus, an approach to assess the public health impacts of climate extremes (leading to floods and droughts) is presented in one of the chapters. For this, a regression model was developed to predict the emergence of diseases caused by rapid changes in the local environment caused by climatic variability. The model was validated for one region using data on the outbreak of Dengue. Based on the computed values of the climate-induced WASH risk index, an action plan for improving the climate resilience of WASH systems for the two most vulnerable districts in the province of Rajasthan is discussed. The book also discusses the key strategies for India to overcome the stress induced by climate variability and change that affect water resources and water-related services in agroecological regions.

1.4

Structure and Organization

The proposed Chaps 1, 2, 6 and 7 will highlight the importance of considering climate variability as an important factor while analyzing the impacts of climate on hydrology, water resources, and water systems. Chapter 2 will specifically cover the current national policies in the water management sector to deal with climate change and variability. While Chap. 6 highlights the importance of considering the climatic and socioeconomic factors in the planning of rural water supply schemes, Chap. 7

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provides a framework for assessing the climate-induced risk for water supply, sanitation and hygiene services. Chapters 3 provides empirical analysis to show the impacts of climate variability and change on hydrology and water resources and irrigation water supplies and Chaps. 8, 9 and 10 provide empirical analysis to show the impact of climatic extremes, especially droughts and floods on the water supply, sanitation and hygiene services. Chapters 4 and 5 would discuss the technological, institutional and policy alternatives for reducing the impacts of such climatic extremes on various competitive use sectors, especially, irrigation through case studies of river basins in different hydrological settings, and Chap. 11 for the WASH sector. Chapters 12 and 13 mainly focus on suggesting policy options and strategies for building climateresilient irrigation and water supply systems. Chapter 2 first presents the water sector scenario of the country with a focus on the resources and their uses and the institutional set up of the sector. The chapter will deal with the current (national) policies in the water management sector, with particular reference to the provisions to deal with climate change and variability. The chapter then deals with climate variability and climate change issues in India. It describes the phenomena of spatial variation and inter-annual variability and the pattern of occurrence of rainfall in the country, based on long-term historical data of rainfall and rainy days. It also analyzes intra-day, inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability in temperature, relative humidity and wind speed, and spatial variation in solar radiation and their implications for managing water for drinking water supply, irrigation, etc. are discussed. Finally, it reviews the existing analysis of the long-term trends in temperature and precipitation in different regions of the country. It also describes the basic character of irrigation, and water supply and sanitation systems existing in different regions of the country. Chapter 3 discusses water resources management issues and challenges in the Mahanadi river basin, an inter-state river basin in eastern India, particularly those posed by climate variability and climate change. The chapter analyzes the long-term changes in the basin hydrology, including rainfall, stream flows and groundwater levels, along with its interannual variability, and draws implications for the sustainability of irrigation systems and drinking water sources. The current water uses in irrigation, industrial and rural and urban domestic water supply sectors are also evaluated against the potential supplies from the existing water systems. A base case scenario of future water balance for the projected changes in socioeconomic conditions and climate variables is developed using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, and is compared with scenarios that consider different water management interventions, especially in the irrigation sector, and change in climate to examine the potential impacts of the water management interventions in reducing water stresses in the basin under different climate scenarios and including severe droughts, and growth scenarios. Chapter 4 analyses the institutional set up for water management in the Mahanadi river basin against the backdrop of current water uses in irrigation, industrial and domestic sectors, and management challenges in the basin. The analysis is done for its effectiveness in ensuring sustainable water use, including resolving water

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conflicts between sectors and between states. A framework for analyzing the effectiveness of water institutions as proposed by Saleth and Dinar (2004) and the institutional design principles for sound water resources management as proposed by Frederiksen (1997) are used for analyzing the impact of institutional and policy framework related on water use and management. Based on the current water management challenges and the additional challenges that the basin is expected to face in future, institutional alternatives for water management, especially managing water for irrigation, which is the largest consumer of water in the basin, are proposed. Luni river basin in western Rajasthan experiences extreme climatic conditions with very hot summers and extremely cold winters, compounded by high interannual variability in rainfall and other weather parameters that cause severe droughts and occasional floods. Pali is one of the districts in this hyper-arid river basin. Excessive withdrawal of groundwater and surface water for irrigation has caused aquifer mining and environmental water stress. In order to identify the water management options for the basin that can help mitigate droughts and arrest groundwater depletion, a water accounting study was undertaken. This helped assess the quantum of water being used in various sectors, and evaluate the opportunities available for augmenting the supplies and reducing the demand for water in consumptive use sectors. Further analysis was carried out for a district, which falls fully in the basin, to analyze the extent to which each one of these interventions would help augment replenishable groundwater resources and reduce the demand for water in irrigation. The policy reforms required in the irrigation sector for affecting the implementation of these interventions are also identified. The results and findings of the study are presented in Chap. 5. Chapter 6 discusses why it is important to consider the climatic and socioeconomic factors in the planning of rural water supply schemes and how the consideration of these factors can influence the regional water supply planning, particularly the assessment of water demands in various sectors. It discusses the norms used currently for planning rural water supply, especially the norm relating to per capita water supply for human consumption and livestock. Based on the evidence available from scientific literature on the impact of physical and socioeconomic factors on water requirement in rural domestic and livestock sectors and kitchen gardening, it defines certain criteria for assessing water demands in domestic and livestock sectors in per capita terms in different regions based on climatic conditions, per capita income, occupational profile and water prices, and describes how the per capita water demands in the domestic and livestock sector in a region could change according to these criteria. Finally, the implications of this analysis for drinking water supply policy for the rural areas of the country are discussed. Chapter 7 discusses development of an analytical framework for assessing the public health risk associated with disruptions in WASH services affected by climateinduced hazards related to water such as droughts and floods. For the development of the framework, the factors influencing the three different dimensions such as hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in rural water and sanitation were identified and grouped as natural, physical, socioeconomic and institutional. These factors and the relevant

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indicative variables are identified based on an extensive review of international literature and expert knowledge. Various factors that influence climate-induced hazard, and exposure and vulnerability of the communities to these hazards, and the way in which they influence them are discussed, and the quantitative criteria for assigning values for these variables are also explained. Chapter 8 assesses the climate risk of WASH systems in two divisions of Maharashtra consisting of 19 districts using the analytical framework discussed in Chap. 7. For this, the value of climate risk was assessed at the district level using data on a total of 28 indicators corresponding to the whole range of natural, physical, socioeconomic and institutional factors, influencing the three dimension of WASH risk, collected from a wide range of secondary and primary sources. The factors influencing high climate risk in certain regions, the physical strategies to make water supply and sanitation systems climate resilient, and the policy reforms needed for affecting these changes are also discussed. The emergence and re-emergence of arthropod-borne viral diseases viz., dengue, chikungunya, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis and Zika are of global public health concern. Over the last decade, India has faced a huge burden of Dengue and chikungunya with more than 10 million individuals affected, with their outbreak often correlated with climatic extremes. This not only necessitates studies on the role of environmental effects on disease but also requires policy framing towards effective prevention or control of epidemics. Chapter 9 would discuss the initiative taken by an Indian state to establish a pilot project that records and documents disease outbreaks. It will present a predictive model (Poisson regression model) developed to analyze the effect of meteorological parameters on disease occurrences, specifically dengue, and the same was validated using data for one region. Chapter 10 discusses the water supply and sanitation situation in Rajasthan, particularly the spatial variation in the characteristics of the water supply systems; describes the natural, physical, socioeconomic and institutional environment which influence the access to drinking water sources and use of water, and access to and use of improved sanitation facilities in Rajasthan. It also reviews the existing policies and norms pertaining to rural water supply in the state to know as to what extent they address the public health concerns associated with climate variability in the state. It then maps the climate-induced WASH risk in all the districts of Rajasthan using a modified analytical framework for assessing climate risk, and identifies the districts with the highest degree of climate-induced water-related hazard; highest exposure of the WASH system to the hazard; and highest vulnerability of the communities to the disruptions in WASH induced by climate hazards. The robustness of the framework was validated by comparing the computed levels of the risk for different districts with the data on the incidence of water-borne diseases in these districts during extreme climate events such as droughts and floods. The key factors contributing to high climate risk in certain districts and very low risks in certain other districts are identified. In Chap. 11, the specific action plans to improve the climate resilience of WASH in two arid districts, which were found to be facing high WASH-related risk, are discussed. The interventions take into account the variation in conditions in each

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district vis-à-vis natural, physical, socioeconomic and institutional environment that affect WASH system performance, block-wise. They included: rainfall and its variability; temperature; frequency of flood-occurrence and drought proneness; geology of the area; water table conditions; groundwater salinity, presence of fluorides in groundwater; availability of surface water including imported water; characteristics of the dominant water supply system; percentage of HHs having access to water to water supply in the dwelling premise; percentage HHs having access to improved sanitation facilities; and, percentage households having access to toilets with water supply connections. The institutional capacity building and policy reforms needed to affect the design and implementation of climate-resilient WASH are also analyzed and discussed. Chapter 12 defines the key strategies for India to overcome the stress induced by climate variability and change that affect water resources and water-related services. The analysis is done for distinct agro-ecological regions, such as low to medium rainfall, semi-arid regions; medium to high rainfall, semi-arid regions; low rainfall arid regions; high rainfall-sub-humid regions, and very high to excessively high rainfall humid regions as each region is distinct in terms of variability in climatic conditions; humid coastal region; and semi-arid to arid coastal regions. The spatial variation in geo-hydrology and topography are also factored in while doing the analysis. Certain areas for future research, where existing knowledge gaps prevent us from leveraging actions against climate-induced water stress, are also identified. The chapter will also discuss the key reforms in the policies related to water that are required to manage water resources and water-related services on a sustainable basis under climate extremes. This concluding chapter will summarize the key findings of all the individual chapters from Chaps. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12, and make policy recommendations for designing and building climate-resilient irrigation and water supply systems. This chapter will also focus on the areas of research in water and climate that would enable water managers to frame appropriate policies for planning and implementing irrigation and water supply systems that can perform well under extreme climatic conditions.

References Charney, J. G. (1967). The intertropical convergence zone and the Hadley circulation of the atmosphere. Cambridge, Mass: Department of Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Frederiksen, H. D. (1997). Institutional principles for sound management of water and related environmental resources. In A. K. Biswas (Ed.), Water resources: Environmental planning, management, and development. New York: MCGraw-Hill. Gadgil, S. (2003). The Indian monsoon and its variability. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 31(1), 429–467.

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Gornall, J., Betts, R., Burke, E., Clark, R., Camp, J., Willett, K., & Wiltshire, A. (2010). Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554), 2973–2989. Halley, E. (1753). An historical account of the trade winds, and monsoons, observable in the seas between and near the Tropics, with an attempt to assign the physical cause of the said winds. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 16(183), 153–168. Howell, T., & Evett, S. (2004). The Penman-Monteith Method. In Evapotranspiration: Determination of consumptive use in water rights proceedings. Denver: Continuing Legal Education in Colorado, Inc., Denver, CO. Hurd, B., Leary, N., Jones, R., & Smith, J. (1999). Relative regional vulnerability of water resources to climate change. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(6), 1399–1409. Kabir, Y., Niranjan, V., Bassi, N., & Kumar, M. D. (2016). Multiple water needs of rural households: Studies from three agro-ecologies in Maharashtra. In M. D. Kumar, Y. Kabir, & A. J. James (Eds.), Rural water systems for multiple uses and livelihood security (pp. 49–68). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Kumar, K. K,, Rupa Kumar, K., Ashrit, R. G., Deshpande, N. R., & Hansen, J. W. (2004). Climate impacts on agriculture. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 24(11), 1375–1393. Kumar, M. D. (2007). Groundwater management in India: physical, institutional and policy alternatives. New Delhi: Sage Publications. Kumar, M. D. (2018). Water policy science and politics: An Indian perspective. Amsterdam: Elsevier. Kumar, M. D., & Rao, N. (2012). Climate variability and its impacts on water, energy and food systems in South Asia: Adaptive water management approaches within the framework of IWRM (Training compendium). Hyderabad: India Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy and SaciWATERs. Kumar, M. D., Sivamohan, M. V. K., & Narayanamoorthy, A. (2012). The food security challenge of the food-land-water nexus in India. Food Security, 4(4), 539–556. Pisharoty, P. R. (1990). Characteristics of Indian rainfall (Monograph). Ahmedabad: Physical Research Laboratories. Saleth, R. M., & Dinar, A. (2004). The institutional economics of water: A cross-country analysis of institutions and performance. Washington DC: The World Bank and Edward Elgar. Sivakumar, M. V. K., Das, H. P., & Brunini, O. (2005). Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics. In J. Salinger, M. Sivakumar, & R. P. Motha (Eds.), Increasing climate variability and change (pp. 31–72). Dordrecht: Springer. UNICEF. (2016). Sanitation contexts and considerations for risk informed programming and climate resilient development. New York: UNICEF. UNICEF, & GWP. (2014). Wash climate resilient development: a strategic framework. New York and Stockholm: UNICEF and Global Water Partnership. UNICEF, Water Supply and Sanitation Department (WSSD), & Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP). (2013). Promoting sustainable supply and sanitation in rural institutional and policy regimes. Hyderabad: Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy. van Oldenborgh, G. J., Reyes, F. D., Drijfhout, S. S., & Hawkins, E. (2013). Reliability of regional climate model trends. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1), 014055. Webster, P. J. (1987). The elementary monsoon. In J. S. Fein & P. L. Stephens (Eds.), Monsoons (pp. 3–32). New York: Wiley. World Meteorological Organization. (2009). Integrated flood management. Geneva: WMO.

1 Climate Risks for Irrigation, Water Supply and Sanitation in India: Overview. . .

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M. Dinesh Kumar did his B-Tech in Civil Engineering in 1988, M. E. in Water Resources Management in 1991 and Ph. D in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF; international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (US), and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala). He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters, and many journal articles. He has published in many international peerreviewed journals viz., Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Management, Int. Journal of WRD and Water Economics and Policy. He is currently also Associate Editor of Water Policy and Member of the Editorial Board of Int. Journal of WRD. His research works of global relevance are: integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water & food security challenges; climate risk in WASH; and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. Yusuf Kabir’s areas of specialization are Rural Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation, Environment, Climate Change Adaptations, and Sustainable Development. He has two post-graduate degrees and had attended several International certificate courses. His first master’s degree is in Environment Engineering and Management from India’s premier management Institute: Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management (IISWBM), and the second one is in Sustainable Development from Staffordshire University, U.K. Yusuf is a Commonwealth scholar. He has several publications in International Journals, Papers, and Books on water and sanitation issues and State Level Committee Members of different state bodies and knowledge management platforms of CSR. He is working in the Water, Sanitation and Environment sector for the last 20 years. He is with UNICEF India since 2007. Prior to that he worked with organizations like DFID, National Level NGOs, Social and Marketing research consultancy firms like GFK-MODE, ORG India Pvt Ltd. He is a commonwealth scholar and a trained policy writer from Central European University, Budapest, Hungary where he had undergone a summer course on ‘Evidence-Based Policy Formulation’. He runs a blog on Sanitation in the name of WASH Garage: Blog: http://safaiwala.blogspot.in/ Rushabh Hemani is a development professional with over fifteen years of comprehensive work experience in the field of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH). He is currently working as WASH Specialist in UNICEF Rajasthan state Office and has also worked in Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Assam Offices of UNICEF in India. His core area of work in UNICEF includes water safety and security, climate-resilient WASH pilot, reducing open defecation, WASH in schools, pre-schools, health centres as well as social and behavior change communication. He has worked across several partners including Government, civil society organizations, academic institutions, and other development partners. He has been actively engaged in the development of various knowledge management products including process documentation, monograph and technical papers on issues concerning WASH. Some of his work has been published as journal papers and also a chapter in a book. Nitin Bassi is a Natural Resource Management specialist (M. Phil) having nearly 13 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy, and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a Principal Researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include River Basin and Catchment Assessment, Water Accounting, Institutional and Policy Analysis in Irrigation and Water Supply Management, Water Quality Analysis, Climate Variability, and Climate-induced Water Risk Analysis and Wetland Management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in

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projects, research studies, and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT, and SDTT. He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD & GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge UK, and has several book chapters, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal of Water Resources Development; Journal of Hydrology; and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.

Chapter 2

Climate Variability and Its Implications for Water Management in India Vedantam Niranjan, M. Dinesh Kumar, and Nitin Bassi

Abstract This chapter first presents the water sector development paradigm followed in India since the country’s independence with a focus on the institutional set up, and also the current national policies in the water management sector, with particular reference to the provisions to deal with climate change and variability. The chapter then describes the phenomena of climate variability in India—using analysis of spatial and temporal variation in rainfall and pattern of occurrence of rainfall; intra-day, inter-seasonal, and inter-annual variability in temperature; relative humidity and wind speed; and spatial variation in solar radiation—and discusses their implications for managing water for drinking water supply and irrigation. Finally, it reviews the available empirical analysis of the long-term trends in temperature and precipitation in different regions of the country. It also describes the basic character of irrigation and water supply and sanitation systems existing in different regions of the country. Keywords Climate change and variability · Water management institutions · National policies · Drinking water · Irrigation

V. Niranjan Freelancer (Environment Specialist), Hyderabad, Telangana, India M. Dinesh Kumar Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India e-mail: [email protected] N. Bassi (*) Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_2

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Introduction

South Asia remains home to four out of every ten of the World’s poor. Nearly 1.5 billion people in South Asia live with less than $1.25 per day. Imbalances in economic growth, inequality among castes, classes, genders, and frequent natural disasters have added to the suffering of the poor and the most vulnerable and marginalized. Climate change is predicted to impact on the socio-economic system, particularly the agricultural system of south Asia adversely (Aryal et al. 2019). Some of the predicted impacts include increased variability in both monsoon and winter rainfall patterns; increased average temperatures, with warmer winters; increased salinity in coastal areas as a result of rising sea levels; and reduced discharge of major rivers (Oxfam 2011). Change in climate can significantly impact water supply and demand through alterations in future temperature and precipitation patterns (Storey and Tanino 2012). Adaptation efforts in South Asia are not enough as they are fragmented, and there is no strong link between national climate change strategies, plans, existing disaster risk reduction, agricultural, and other relevant policies (Oxfam 2011). It is often found that anticipatory adaptation would be lot less costly compared to reactive adaptation (APN for Global Change Research 2004). India depends heavily on monsoon as a source of fresh water that can replenish its natural and manmade reservoirs, aquifers, and soil profile, to be used later on for meeting various direct and indirect needs. Predicting Indian monsoon is quite complex, given several anomalies that cause inter-annual variability of summer monsoon rainfall (Hastenrath 1987). Studies on Yamuna river basin reveal a considerable difference in the monsoon and non-monsoon rainfall patterns in terms of persistence and periodicity (K Rai et al. 2010). Understanding the cause of monsoon is crucial to deepening our understanding of how monsoon in India would change as a result of larger changes occurring in global and regional climate. There are contesting theories about the cause of Monsoon. Halley (1753) suggested that the primary cause of the monsoon was the differential heating between ocean and land. This is still considered as the basic mechanism for the monsoon by several scientists (e.g., Webster 1987). In an alternative hypothesis, monsoon is considered as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (Charney 1969). The two hypotheses have very different implications for variability of the monsoon (Gadgil 2003). For example, in the first case, we expect the intensity of the monsoon to be directly related to the land-ocean temperature contrast. Simpson (1921) pointed out that the observations of the space-time variations of the monsoon over the Indian region are not consistent with the first hypothesis. It is well understood that from a utilitarian perspective, “climate variability” has significant implications for the way climate change predictions need to be made for the sub-continent, and understanding of “climate variability” (spatial and temporal) and its impact on hydrological systems would also help understand the likely impact of the change in climate over time on the hydrological system and water resources. Unfortunately, these concerns were very narrowly addressed by the advocates of climate change, with the key contention being the variability in precipitation would

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increase with greater frequency of extreme events such as floods and droughts. There are several other important climate parameters one needs to deal with for analyzing climate variability issues. They are number of rainy days; wind speed and wind directions; humidity; and temperature and solar radiation. All these parameters have significant implications for water management, as they change either one (supply or demand) or both of the functions in water management. This chapter tracks the history of water management in India, particularly to examine how far the unique characteristics of the climate, i.e., spatial variability, and inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability, were factored in the evolution of the distinct paradigms of water management followed for centuries. The paradigms discussed are (1) water resources development involving runoff from small local catchments to meet the local water needs; (2) groundwater development; and (3) river valley projects, involving reservoir/diversion systems and large-scale water transfer from water-rich regions to areas affected by water shortage. It also reviews the water policies in India, beginning from the first one of 1987, for what they have tried to achieve. This is followed by the analysis of the spatial and temporal variability in the key climatic parameters, viz., rainfall, relative humidity (RH), temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed using empirical data and analyzes the implications of the same for water management decision-making. The basic aim is to illustrate how knowing the impacts of variability in these climatic parameters on hydrological system would help understand the impacts of likely change in climate on the same hydrological system over time. Finally, the results of analysis of longterm changes in rainfall available from published sources are presented to drive home the point that for achieving water management goals for future the challenges posed by climate variability are as great as that of climate change, if not greater. A glance at the type of water systems that existed in the past and at present for irrigation and drinking water supply is also provided.

2.2

India’s Water Sector: Development Paradigms and Policies

Globally, India is generally considered to be a country currently facing water stress and likely to face water scarcity in future (Seckler et al. 1998). Often, time-series data showing declining per capita renewable water availability are used to highlight the point about growing water stress in India. However, this is a highly generalized statement, based on oversimplification of the country’s water situation, which tends to ignore the several complex factors that determine the availability of water resources with respect to space and time, and access and use of water by the country’s population. While there are large regions in the country which face shortage of water for various needs, they are equally large regions which face problems of too much water, facing problems of waterlogging and flooding (Das et al. 2007). Within the same locality, water situation in the same place often changes

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dramatically between seasons from excessively wet conditions during the monsoon months to extremely dry conditions during the summer. With monsoon climate, many areas receive considerable amount of rainfall in a relatively short span of time, 3–5 months of the year, and in a few wet spells. Given these unique characteristics of Indian monsoon and the way it impacts on water resources, for managing water for various human needs round the year, traditionally, water resource development, had received great attention of the rulers and their executives in the sub-continent. To meet the growing demands for water from various sectors—agriculture, domestic use, livestock use, and industrial use— water resources development was the key strategy for several centuries. The age-old paradigm of water resources development involved capturing runoff water from local catchment in tanks, ponds, and lakes and using it during dry seasons for watering crops, livestock, manufacturing processes (brick making, tile making, pottery, etc.), and for meeting various human uses. Hence, it factored in the interseasonal variability in climate. The relatively new paradigm of capturing runoff from water-rich catchments using large reservoirs and diversion systems and transferring to areas of water shortage (generally characterized by lower rainfall with poor dependability and high aridity) using long canals came into being during the British rule. This paradigm is followed even today, though during the last two to three decades, water demand management has received great attention. This paradigm addressed the concerns arising out of spatial variability in rainfall and climatic conditions, including floods and droughts to a great extent (Thatte 2018). Though history of well irrigation in India dates back to the 3000 BC, groundwater development received impetus in the early 1960s, with government investment in public tube wells for irrigation, and hand pumps and wells for community water supplies later on. This was in lieu of the fact that the benefits of irrigation development through large surface water projects were confined to only areas where hydrological conditions and topography were favorable. Institutional financing was offered for well development, and subsidies were offered for digging wells and installing pump sets (Kumar 2007). For many centuries, wells served as “drought buffer,” allowing the government agencies and communities to tap water from the deep aquifers during years of low rainfall when local water systems failed. Over the years, well irrigation took over surface irrigation from canals and tanks (Kumar et al. 2009). By now, India has around 25 wells irrigating around 36 m. ha of cropland. The drought-proofing ability of wells in large parts of India, however, has begun to suffer severe setback as groundwater started depleting in semi-arid and arid areas of India. Today, wells in most parts of India are highly vulnerable to droughts as they either fail or their yields decline sharply when monsoon fails. The only exception is the Gangetic plains, which have abundant groundwater. However, the area affected by droughts in the region is very small and the frequency of occurrence of droughts is also very low in that region. Several large river valley projects had come up in India since Independence involving construction of several large dams, including many multi-purpose projects that cater to irrigation, flood control, power generation, and drinking water supplies

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(Thatte 2018). They along with a myriad of medium and minor irrigation projects together command around 24 m. ha of land (Kumar et al. 2009). Though design of surface water projects takes into consideration the inter-annual variability in the rainfall while arriving at dependable yields, such design approaches are not adequate to take into account the huge shortfall in the supplies during drought years. Particularly, the water systems are not designed for multi-annual storage of water that can store and carry over the excess water available during abnormally wet years to meet the deficits during dry years. As per the Indian constitution (Article 21), water (both surface water and groundwater) is a state subject and only the inter-state river basins are under the concurrent list (both Union and state list), wherein the Union government can adjudicate in the case of disputes arising between states. The Inter-state Water Disputes Act, 1956 (Government of India (GoI), 1956) to resolve disputes arising out of sharing of river water between states came into being in 1954. Independent India so far had three National Water Policies, the first one in 1987 (GoI 1987), the second one in 2002 (GoI 2002), and the third one in 2012 (GoI 2012). All these policy documents highlighted the importance of provision of water for basic survival needs and had given top-most priority to drinking water (water for human needs) in water allocation decisions. However, neither did these policies prescribe nor these policies were followed by creation of rules and norms and institutional mechanisms for ensuring water allocation for ensuring drinking water security. The water policies of the states also give top-most priority to drinking water (Thatte 2018). However, when it comes to norms and institutional mechanisms for water allocation, hardly anything really exists on the ground. Though the district collectors are empowered to earmark water from surface reservoirs during droughts for drinking purpose, the existing laws are inadequate to deal with groundwater, as the de facto rights in groundwater are still attached to land ownership rights (Kumar 2018). An important prescription in the water policy documents of 2002 and 2012 is the need for taking the river basin as the unit for planning of water resources, in order to promote sustainable water resources development. However, no serious attempts were made so far to implement this idea, and the various agencies concerned with water resources development and management at the state level continue to act independently, in a sectoral and segmented manner (Kumar 2018; Pandit and Biswas 2019). The resource assessment and planning of groundwater and surface water resources are carried out separately (by the respective agencies concerned both at the central level and state level), without caring for their inter-connectedness. Studies have shown that intensive use of groundwater in the upper catchments of river basins results in reduced stream flows, as excessive groundwater draft reduces the lean season flows (base flow) (Kumar 2010; Srinivasan and Lele 2017). Similarly, the wing of Water Resources Department of various state governments, which carry out catchment-wise assessment of surface water potential and plan large and medium irrigation/multi-purpose water projects, does not take cognizance of the myriad of minor irrigation and watershed development projects that are being planned within these catchments by other agencies (such as Minor Irrigation

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Department and Watershed Development Agencies, respectively), and vice versa. Such un-coordinated planning leads to over-appropriation of the resource. Intensive watershed development, de-silting of tanks, etc. cause reduced inflows into reservoirs downstream (James et al. 2015). In sum, the policies have not resulted in any organizational restructuring within India’s water resource administration (Kumar 2018). The need to treat water as an economic good and the pricing of water to reflect its scarcity value are well recognized in the water policies of 2002 and 2012 (Thatte 2018). Yet, no state government is willing to charge for water supplied from public irrigation schemes on volumetric basis, and the water cess charged on the basis of crop area is heavily subsidized, not even covering the full operation and maintenance costs of the schemes (Kumar 2010), whereas the estimates of price elasticity of water demand in many developed countries (Australia, North America and Western Europe) show positive values of elasticity (Hoffmann et al. 2006; Renwick et al. 1998). In very few cities and towns in India, the municipalities/corporations or the autonomous water utilities charge for water supplies on volumetric basis, and that too not all domestic water connections are metered (ADB 2007; Kumar 2014), leaving no incentive to use water efficiently and reduce wastage. In the farm sector, the electricity supplied for groundwater pumping is not charged on pro rata basis. While some State Electricity Utilities charge for electricity on the basis of connected load, many states are offering free electricity. West Bengal is the only state which had successfully introduced metering of electricity in the farm sector for groundwater pumping, and charges electricity tariffs that are comparable with the cost of production and supply. In nutshell, the Water Policy is never taken seriously, by the governments, with its bureaucrats and executive wing (Kumar 2018). Though government of India has come up with national action plans on climate change, including one for water, there are no special provisions in the national water policy to address issues of climate variability and change.

2.3

Rainfall Variability in India

The variation in mean annual precipitation across India is depicted in Fig. 2.1. Figure 2.2 shows the spatial average of monthly mean rainfall and monthly mean temperature in India. The lion’s share of the precipitation in India is from rainfall, and the occurrence of snowfall is limited to the sub-Himalayan region. Indian monsoon is characterized by high degree of spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The mean annual rainfall varies from less than 100 mm in the western part of Rajasthan to around 11,700 mm in Cherrapunji in Meghalaya. The magnitude of annual rainfall is large in north eastern states and south western regions, which experience both south west and north-east monsoons. Maximum mean rainfall value of 395.02 mm (Fig. 2.2) was observed during the month of August, which is also the peak time of south west monsoon. Similarly, the minimum mean rainfall value of 5.47 mm was observed in the month of April, which

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Fig. 2.1 Spatial variation in rainfall of India. (Source: Kumar 2010 (Based on Pisharoty 1990))

is again the peak summer season. India has diverse climates, and varies from hyperarid to arid to semi-arid to sub-humid to humid. It has mountainous regions, middle mountains, plateaus, plains, deserts, and coastal plains and deltas.

2.3.1

Temporal Variability in Rainfall

Figure 2.3 depicts the average coefficient of variation (CV) in rainfall in India. Indian monsoon is characterized by significant inter-annual variability. Analysis of

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Fig. 2.2 Monthly mean rainfall and temperature in India (1900–2009). (Source: Authors’ analysis based on World Bank data)

monsoon rainfall carried out by Physical Research Laboratories shows that the interannual variability, expressed in terms of coefficient of variation (CV), in annual rainfall is high in regions of low rainfall and low in regions of high rainfall. In regions such as western Rajasthan and Kachchh, the coefficient of variation in the rainfall is as high as 50% and above. In the north eastern region and in the western Ghat region, the coefficient of variation in rainfall is very low, meaning high dependability. As Table 2.1 indicates, a large percentage of the total geographical area of Gujarat and Rajasthan (72% and 68%, respectively) has high to very high (30–40% and above) variability in rainfall. A significant portion of the geographical area of the states, viz., Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu (37% to 92%), experiences medium variability in rainfall; the rest of the area experiences low variability. The entire Orissa and Chhattisgarh experience only low variability in rainfall. In nutshell, more than 50% of the total geographical area of all the states put together experience medium variability; nearly 25% experience “high to very high variability”; and nearly 20% experience “low variability” in rainfall. They coincide with “medium rainfall-medium to high evaporation,” “low rainfallvery high evaporation,” and “high rainfall-medium evaporation” regimes, respectively. In sum, in low rainfall regions, which also coincide with regions of high aridity and high inter-annual variability in mean annual rainfall, the variation in annual runoff from catchments caused by rainfall variation will be disproportionately higher than that of the degree of change in rainfall (Kumar et al. 2006). This means the relationship between rainfall and runoff will be exponential. Such regions are characterized by large differences in annual river discharge between wet years and dry years. As noted by Kumar et al. (2006), such sharp variation in runoff between wet year and dry year increases the average cost of harnessing water from river catchment at high degree of water development.

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Fig. 2.3 Spatial variation in coefficient of variation in annual rainfall of India. (Source: Kumar 2010 (Based on Pisharoty 1990))

2.4

Variability in Climate in India

Climate is the net effect of the interplay of precipitation, humidity, temperature of the atmosphere, and winds (speed) and rainfall. Atmospheric temperature and temperature on the surface of the earth are the effects of solar radiation. The other climate parameters also vary from region to region, influenced by their geographic positioning with respect to oceans, mountains, desert, and the latitude and longitude (particularly the distance from the equator), and would change with change in seasons, i.e., rainy season, winter, and summer.

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Table 2.1 Rainfall variability regimes of selected Indian states

Name of state Gujarat Rajasthan Maharashtra Madhya Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Tamil Nadu Orissa Chhattisgarh

% Area with rainfall variability in the range of 50% 11.22 13.84

0.0

0.0

Source: Authors’ own estimates based on Pisharoty (1990) using GIS

2.4.1

Humidity

Humidity is a measure of the amount of vapor in the air and is measured in terms of vapor pressure of the air (measured in KPa/m2). While humidity itself is a climate variable, it also interacts strongly with other climate variables. The relative humidity (RH) is the measure of the vapor pressure of the air measured as a percentage of the saturated vapor pressure. The humidity is affected by wind and rainfall. At the same time, humidity affects the energy budget and thereby influences temperatures in two major ways. First, water vapor in the atmosphere contains "latent" energy. During transpiration or evaporation, this latent heat is removed from liquid surface, cooling the earth’s surface. This is the biggest non-radiative cooling effect at the surface. It compensates for roughly 70% of the average net radiative warming at the surface. Second, water vapor is the most important of all greenhouse gases. Water vapor, like a green lens that allows green light to pass through it but absorbs red light, is a “selective absorber.” Along with other greenhouse gases, water vapor is transparent to most solar energy. High relative humidity slows down the movement of water vapor into the air and therefore retards evaporation from water bodies, and vice versa. Similarly, it also reduces the biophysical process of transpiration from plant leaves. Hence, relative humidity as a weather parameter has very high significance in water management. In humid environments, loss of water through evaporation from reservoirs will be generally low and in arid environments very high. In arid environments, controlling evaporation from surface reservoirs will be a major challenge posed to water managers.

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Fig. 2.4 Average relative humidity in India. (Source: Atlas of the Biosphere, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin, Madison)

Figure 2.4 depicts the average annual relative humidity (%) across India, as on June 2020. The relative humidity ranges from less than 25% to 100% across the sub-continent. In western parts of India, annual average relative humidity is extremely low. Whereas in north eastern parts and coastal areas of India, average relative humidity is very high. But it absorbs the infrared energy emitted (radiated) upward by the earth’s surface. Because of this reason, humid areas experience very little night time cooling unlike dry desert regions. This selective absorption causes the greenhouse effect. Coastal areas are generally more humid than inland areas, so are the areas receiving higher rainfall over extended time periods. Normally, if the amount of moisture in the air remains the same, then an increase in temperature would reduce relative humidity as warmer air can hold more moisture than cold air. But, in humid tropics, increase in temperature would also result higher evaporation adding to the

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100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136 151 166 181 196 211 226 241 256 271 286 301 316 331 346 361

Relative Humidity %

atmospheric vapor content, and hence there would be no reduction in relative humidity. Normally, in any region, the relative humidity in an area would increase during monsoon, though the variation would be much higher in hot climates. Figure 2.5 shows the daily values of relative humidity (morning and evening) in Aurangabad over a period of 2 years, i.e., 2009 and 2010. Figure 2.5 illustrates the following points: (1) the highest difference encountered in the relative humidity values between morning (RH–AM) and evening (RH–PM) of any day over the entire year during 2009 and 2010 (74% and 68%, respectively) is higher than the difference in relative humidity values for both morning and evening between the most humid day and the least humid day of the year (63 and 74% for 2009, and 63 and 63% for 2010); (2) relative humidity is excessively high in the range of 80–90% during the rainy season; and (3) the RH values for both morning and evening for the same day of the month can vary significantly between years (Table 2.2).

RH%-AM-2009 RH%-PM-2009

RH%-AM-2010 RH%-PM-2010

Fig. 2.5 Relative humidity and wind speed–Aurangabad (2009–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis using India Meteorological Department (IMD) data set)

Table 2.2 Characteristics of relative humidity. (Location: Aurangabad, Maharashtra, India)

Year of monitoring 2009 2010

Relative humidity Diff between max of daily RH–AM and min of daily RH–AM 63 63

Diff between max of daily RH–PM and min of RH-PM 74 63

Highest difference between daily RH–AM and daily RH– PM over the year 74 68

Source: Author’s own estimates based on data presented in Fig. 2.5

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50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183 197 211 225 239 253 267 281 295 309 323 337 351 365

Temperature in degrees C

Atmospheric temperature change is a result of change in energy balance, which is the net effect of the incident and reflected solar radiations. The radiation flux is measured in million joules (MJ) per m2 per day. The energy received by the earth’s surface from solar radiation in a particular place is a function of the distance of the place from the Earth’s equator. In terms of temperature, the weather in India varies from very cold and cold to warm, hot, and very hot. The same region can experience hot and cold weather conditions, depending on the season. During summer, the northern, western, and north western regions in India are hotter than the southern and eastern regions. However, during winter, these regions are colder than the southern and eastern regions. Lowering of temperature during night and also during early morning and evening, and the temperature variations within a day can even be higher than the variation in temperature in the same locality across seasons, it is observed throughout the day (24 h) and is expressed as “minimum daily temperature” and “maximum daily temperature.” The various derivatives of this climate variable used in describing the climate of locality are monthly average of daily minimum temperature; monthly average of daily maximum temperature; seasonal average of maximum and minimum daily temperatures; and annual average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures. Temperature is also influenced by precipitation. Precipitation of considerable magnitude can bring down atmospheric temperature, whereas heating of the landmass often causes conventional precipitation due to development of low-pressure zones. Though summer temperatures are generally high across India, since monsoon rains occur during summer months, change in the onset of monsoon can significantly affect the temperature. Delayed monsoon can raise the temperature from normal values and early arrival of monsoon can lower it. Daily minimum and maximum temperature observed in Aurangabad district for the period 2009–2010 along with daily rainfall data for the same location are presented in Fig. 2.6.

Daily Max Temp-2009 Daily Min Temp-2010

Daily Max Temp-2010 Daily Rainfall-2009

Daily Min Temp-2009 Daily Rainfall-2010

Fig. 2.6 Temperature and rainfall of Aurangabad (2009–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis using India Meteorological Department (IMD) data set)

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Figure 2.6 illustrates the following points: (1) there is wide variation in the temperature between the hottest day and the coldest day of the year; (2) the maximum difference between the daily maximum and the daily minimum temperature recorded in the entire year (32.8oC for 2009 and 35oC for 2010) is higher than both the difference between the highest of the daily maximum or minimum temperature and the lowest of the daily maximum or minimum temperature (19.8o C for max. and 19o C for min. 2009 for max. and min. temperature, respectively); and (3) the decline in daily maximum temperature owing to occurrence of rainfall over a period of time is higher than the decline in minimum temperature over the same time period; and (4) finally there can be significant variations in temperature (daily maximum or daily minimum) on the same day of the month, between two years, and this difference can be in the order of 4 to 5 degrees. The results are summarized in Table 2.3. Temperature has a direct relationship with water demands in agriculture, domestic, and livestock use. Increase in temperature increases the crop evapotranspirative requirement of crops. It also increases the demand of water for voluntary consumption by humans and animals. The direct consumption requirements of water by humans and livestock increase from cold and humid climates to hot and arid climates.

2.4.3

Wind Speed

It refers to the mass movement of air. Speed of winds, which occur as a result of atmospheric pressure gradients, is an important climate parameter as it can change the humidity of an area. The evaporation from water bodies under low relative humidity, high temperature gets sustained when the vapor produced is removed by the speed of the wind. Winds are generally measured in terms of their direction and speed. From the point of view of climate-induced impacts, both the direction and speed (knots/hour) are important. Depending on the speed, wind can be classified as calm wind (less than 4.0 knots per hour), breeze (4–27 knots/hour), gale (28–55 knots/hour), storm (56–64 knots/hour), and hurricane (above 64 knots/hour). Using the “Beaufort scale,” winds are classified into 17 different categories based on the speed.

Table 2.3 Characteristics of temperature (location: Aurangabad, Maharashtra)

Year 2009 2010

Temperature (o C) Difference between max of daily max and min of daily max 19.8 20.2

Difference between max of daily min and min of daily minimum 19.0 22.0

Source: Author’s own estimates based on data presented in Fig. 2.6

Max difference between daily max and daily minimum 32.8 35.0

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Relative Humidity %

14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0

2.0 1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183 197 211 225 239 253 267 281 295 309 323 337 351 365 379

0.0

Wind Speed (KMPH) - 2009

Wind Speed (KMPH)-2010

Fig. 2.7 Wind speed–Aurangabad (2009–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis using India Meteorological Department (IMD) data set)

As per Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) classification, winds are categorized as low-pressure areas (up to 16 knots per hour (1 knot ¼ 1.605 km); depression (17–27 knots/hour); deep depression (28–33 knots per hour); cyclonic storm (34–47 knots/hour); severe cyclonic storm (48–63 knots/hour); very severe cyclonic storm (64–119 knots/hour); and super cyclonic storm (above 120 knots/ hour). Wind energy, which is the kinetic energy of the wind, is a function of the volume of air and the density of the air. Figure 2.7 shows that the wind speed in a particular location can change across the year and can also vary from year to year. Across the country, strong winds, storms, and cyclones are experienced in the coastal areas, due to development of low-pressure zones (depressions). Storms and cyclones also result in localized heavy precipitation. Wind has a huge impact on the plant biophysical processes and management of water bodies. High winds can increase crop evapotranspiration and evaporation from reservoirs even with solar radiation, air humidity remaining the same (Howell and Evett 2004).

2.4.4

Solar Radiation

Energy received by the earth’s surface from solar radiation in a particular place depends mainly on its latitude. Normally, the total incoming solar radiation is balanced by an equal amount of outgoing terrestrial radiations. Atmospheric temperature change is due to change in this energy balance. But there are other factors which influence the solar radiation at a given location, which can cause variations in the amount of solar radiation in two places situated at the same latitude. They are atmospheric effects, including absorption and scattering, and local variations in the

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atmosphere, such as water vapor, clouds, and pollution. The incident solar radiation at a locality also depends on the season of the year and the time of day. Solar radiation has major implications for water management, more importantly for water management in agriculture which consumes a major share of the water diverted for all purposes in India. The processes of evaporation and evapotranspiration, which are governed by the principles of energy balance, are largely controlled by solar radiation. Higher the amount of solar radiation which a locality receives, higher will be the quantum of water consumed in transpiration and evaporation, if other weather parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed remain the same. While high level of incident solar radiation increases transpiration from plants thereby increasing crop water demand, it can also increase the yield of the crop as higher transpiration is a result of high sunlight which results in higher biomass output from the plants within the genetic potential of the plant, through better photosynthesis. There is remarkable inter-regional variation in solar irradiance (kWh/m2) in India, with the highest solar radiation received in the northern and western regions and the lowest in north eastern region (Fig. 2.8). Table 2.4 presents the annual direct normal irradiance in six distinct regions of India. With very low relative humidity and high solar radiation, for the same crop grown, the PET values are highest in the western region, followed by northern and southern regions.

2.4.5

Spatial Variability in Climate

Potential evaporation (expressed in mm), the amount of water an open water body can evaporate in a year, for a particular location is a net result of the solar radiation flux, wind speed, and relative humidity experienced in that location and to a lesser extent the temperature, and is a strong indicator of the location’s climate, along with rainfall. It is the mechanical process by which water in the liquid form gets converted into vapor. The energy for the same is provided by the solar radiation and to a lesser extent the ambient temperature, and the driving force is provided by the difference in vapor pressure between evaporating surface and the surrounding atmosphere, and the winds. This parameter is extensively used in hydrology for estimating water losses from open reservoirs and water requirements for crop physiological processes.1 The variations in solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity across space in India ultimately result in significant variation in potential evaporation (PE). Lower rainfall, coupled with higher PE, reduces the runoff potential and high evaporation from the impounded runoff, thereby increasing the dryness (Hurd et al. 1999).

1

The related terms are reference evapotranspiration (ET0), potential evapotranspiration (PET). For detailed discussions on the physics of the processes, please see Howell and Evett (2004).

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Fig. 2.8 Variation in solar radiation in India. (Source: India solar resources maps (http://www. mnre.gov.in/sec/solar-assmnt.htm) developed by the US national renewable energy laboratory in cooperation with ministry of new and renewable energy, Government of India)

Variation in these parameters with respect to space and time also results in significant variation in ET0 values and potential evapotranspiration (PET) for the same crop across regions and also within the same regions with time, respectively. For instance, an experiment conducted in an alfalfa field in Bushland, Texas, United States, showed the estimated daily PET value for alfalfa field to be ranging from as high as 17.7 mm during a day (on July 13, 1998) to almost half (9.9 mm) during the

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Table 2.4 Peak sunlight hours in different regions of India Region Northeastern India Eastern India Northern India Central India Southern India Western India

Average annual direct normal irradiance (kWh/m2 per day) 3.40–3.80 3.50–4.00 3.70–4.20 4.30–4.80 4.30–4.80 4.60–5.10

Source: Bassi (2018)

next day, i.e., July 14, 1998 (Howell and Evett 2004). This was mainly due to strong advection from high winds and low humidity on the first day, as compared to a more typical environment on the next day. Potential evaporation is measured using pan evaporimeters, whereas crop ET can be measured using a lysimeter. It is understood that regions with relatively low rainfall have higher potential evapotranspiration due to relatively low humidity, and higher number of sunny days. As Fig. 2.9 shows, the annual potential evaporation in India ranges from as low as 1500 mm in the north east to more than 3500 mm in certain pockets within the western region (source: based on Pisharoty 1990). Significant differences in reference to evapotranspiration (ET0), which affects PET of crops, are also noticed between upper and lower parts of river basins as analysis of data for Ganges and Brahmaputra has shown (Kumar et al. 2012).

2.5

How Has Indian Rainfall Been Changing over Time?

Understanding how the monsoon will change in the face of global warming is a challenge for climate science, not least because our state-of-the-art general circulation models still have difficulty simulating the regional distribution of monsoon rainfall (Turner and Annamalai 2012). The analysis by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) is the only work which comprehensively examines the long-term variations in physiographic rainfall across India. The study by IITM (Sontakke et al. 2008) divided the geographical area of the country into 14 physiographic units and 49 sub-units, and the area-averaged rainfall values for 316 wellspread rain-gauge stations were used for their analysis, for the period from 1901 to 2006. For years prior to 1901, simple objective techniques were used for the limited rain-gauge stations, the oldest recorded corresponded to 1813. The different physiographical regions made are the Western Himalayas; the northern Plains; the Eastern Plains; the Indo-Gangetic Plains; the Northeastern Range; the Western Plains; the North Central Highlands; the South Central Highlands; the North Deccan; the South Deccan; the Eastern Plateau; the Western Hills; the Eastern Hills; the West Coastal Plains; and the East Coastal Plains. Within each physiographic region, sub-regions were identified for the analysis, totaling 49.

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Fig. 2.9 Variation in potential evaporation in India. (Source: Kumar 2010)

The method involved analysis of the changes in rainfall of each physiographic unit and finding out the time periods for changes in rainfall trends. The analysis showed that there is no consistent trend in rainfall across regions and over the entire time period for which analysis was carried out (i.e., 1813–2006). The trend in annual rainfall kept on changing from “positive” (meaning increase in rainfall) to “negative” trend to “no trend,” after a particular time period, though the time duration corresponding to this change kept on varying not only for the same physiographic unit but also across physiographic units (Source: based on Sontakke et al. 2008). As regards the spatial variation in the most recent trend in the monsoon rainfall in the country, the findings were as follows: “24.1% area of the country shows increasing trend (Bengal Basin, Vindhyan Scarp lands,MaharashtraPlateau, Chhotanagpur Plateau, North Sahyadri, Kathiawar Peninsula, Gujarat Plains, Konkan, Utkal Plains, Andhra Plains), 74.7% decreasing trend (South Kashmir

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Himalaya, Punjab Himalaya, Kumaun Himalaya, Punjab Plains, Ganga-Yamuna Doab, Rohilkhand Plains, Avadh Plains, North Bihar Plains, South Bihar Plains, Bengal Plains, Assam Valley, Meghalaya, Purvanchal, Marusthali,RajasthanBagar, Aravalli Range, EastRajasthanUplands, Madhya Bharat Pathar, Bundelkhand Upland, Malwa Plateau, Vindhya Range, Narmada Valley, Satpura Range, Karnataka Plateau, Telangana Plateau, Baghelkhand Plateau, Mahanadi Basin, Garhjat Hills, Dandakaranya, South Sahyadri, Nilgiri, Eastern Ghats (North), Eastern Ghats (South), Tamil Nadu Uplands, Karnataka Coast, Kerala Plains) and remaining 1.2% no trend (Central Sahyadri, Kachchh Peninsula, Tamil Nadu Plains) (Figure 68c). The summer monsoon rainfall over the country from 1931–1964 to 1965–2006 has decreased by 4.72%” (Sontakke et al. 2008: p. 35). As regards the temporal change in rainfall trend in the same location, the data for Western Himalayas can be used to illustrate. The chief features of rainfall trend in the Western Himalayas were as follows: “annual (read as annual rainfall)l-1845–1894 increase, 1895–1902 decrease, 1903–1960 increase, 1961–2006 decrease; winter1845–1893 increase, 1894–1963 decrease, 1964–2006 increase; summer1845–1938 decrease, 1938–2006 increase (1983–2006 above normal but decreasing tendency); summer Monsoon -1844–1960 increase, 1961–2006 decrease; postmonsoon-1844–2006 increase; June- 1844–2006 decrease; July-1844–1959 increase, 1960–2006 decrease; August-1844–1885 increase, 1886–2006 decrease; and September-1844–1961 increase, 1962–2006 decrease” (Sontakke et al. 2008: p. 8).

2.6

Basic Characteristics of Water Systems in India

Depending on the hydrological, climatic, geohydrological, and topographical conditions that exist in different regions, the water systems have evolved over centuries in India. The water systems that now exist in India can be classified into traditional systems and modern systems. Some of the traditional systems are tanks, ponds, and open wells; a myriad of more indigenous water harvesting systems as khadins, nadis, tankas (found in western Rajasthan), step wells (in Gujarat), lakes, and hill irrigation systems in the north east and Kashmir; and spring-based drinking water sources and irrigation systems in the hills of north east and western Ghat region. Among the indigenous systems, khadins were used for irrigation and the rest mainly for domestic purpose and livestock drinking. The step wells were only meant for domestic purpose (Agarwal and Narain 1997). Most of these traditional systems have small local catchments, with the exception of some of tanks in south India. Almost everywhere, the tanks served as multiple-use water systems, with them being used for irrigation, fisheries, domestic water supply, and livestock drinking (Palanisami and MeinzenDick 2001) while serving ecological functions such as flood control, silt trapping, and groundwater recharge (Mosse 1999).

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There is a predominance of tanks in the Deccan plateau because of the unique topographic characteristics of the regions. The areas falling under these regions offer ideal potential for tank construction and carrying out gravity-based irrigation (ADB 2006). The tanks in South India (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka) are of two types, viz., cascade tanks and system tanks. The system tanks, apart from having their own local catchments, are also fed by nearby streams/rivers during floods through link channels. In the case of cascade tanks, there are a series of tanks on the same drainage line, with the overflow from one tank becoming the inflow of the tank immediately downstream. Though romanticized by some researchers, most of the traditional systems of water supply in villages failed to supply water of sufficient quantity in the case of irrigation, and both quantity and quality in the case of domestic water supply, during long droughts. The former led to a sharp decline in agricultural production, severe food shortages, and famines, and the latter led to an outbreak of many water-borne diseases (Kumar and Pandit 2018). The modern water systems for irrigation include reservoirs with canal networks (across the entire country), river diversion systems with canal networks (mostly on the Ganges River and its tributaries), and weirs with river lift systems (in many parts of central India, especially in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. The modern water systems based on large reservoirs and diversion systems were introduced in undivided India during the colonial period. They involved diverting water from rivers fed by water-rich catchments using a storage reservoir or a diversion barrage/ weir and transferring to water-scarce regions through a network of canals. As per the National Register on Large Dams, there are 4877 large dams in India, and 313 are under construction, based on the definition of the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD). For drinking water supply, different types of modern water systems exist, depending on the hydrological, geohydrological, and topographical conditions. They range from shallow tube wells to deep tube wells to bore wells and hand pumps to river lifting systems to reservoir-based water supply systems that use a network of pipes. Hand pumps are found all over India except in the mountainous areas. Tube wells are common in alluvial areas of the Indo-Gangetic plains (West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Punjab). Bore wells are found in hard rock areas (Odisha, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu), and they replaced open wells as groundwater started depleting in these areas. Failure of hand pumps and bore wells is very rampant in the hard rock regions due to seasonal depletion of groundwater. Because of this reason, reservoir or river lift long-distance pipeline schemes are increasingly being adopted in many Indian states to cater to thousands of villages.

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Findings and Conclusions

We began this chapter with a discussion on the evolution of different water management paradigms in India. The current institutional set up for water administration in the country and the three National Water Policies (1987, 2002, and 2012) were also discussed. This was followed by extensive analysis of the climate variables, viz., rainfall, rainy days, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation in the Indian context and discussions of various associated phenomena. We have seen that there are substantial inter-annual and inter-regional variations in rainfall. There is also substantial variation in the annual potential evaporation rates, which is the result of variations in key climate variables such as solar radiation and relative humidity with respect to space. Regions that receive high solar radiation, low rainfall, but experiencing low relative humidity and high temperature will require much larger quantum of water for raising crops than what is required by the same crops if grown in a cold region, experiencing high rainfall and relative humidity and low solar radiation. More water will be lost through evaporation from water bodies and soils in hot and arid regions as compared to cold and humid regions. Hence, water management challenges are much greater in the former as compared to the latter. We have also seen that there is significant variation in climate variable such as relative humidity, temperature, and wind speed within seasons, between seasons, and between years. These together can induce major changes in the physical and biophysical processes such as evaporation from soils and water bodies and evapotranspiration from plants, grass, and trees. Understanding these characteristics is important as it has significant implications for the way climate change predictions need to be made for the sub-continent. Understanding of the impact of “climate variability” on water resource availability and water demand would also help understand the likely impact of the change in climate over time on the hydrological system and water resources. It is quite obvious that, with the drastic spatial variations in the climatic conditions that exist within India and with the high temporal variations, predicting the impact of climate change on water resources and biophysical systems with reasonable degree of accuracy is going to be a complex task. In any case, it can be inferred that the nature and degree of water-related hazards induced by climate would vary significantly from region to region. So are their implications for the performance of water systems for irrigation and domestic water supply and the communities that depend on these systems for meeting their water needs. Our analysis also indicates that the additional challenge of managing future water supplies and food in the wake of climate change is unlikely to be significant when compared to the challenges that are being posed by climate variability and that efforts at analyzing the impacts of climate variability on the hydrological systems, water supply systems, and biophysical systems should receive greater attention in the coming years.

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In India, water systems for both irrigation and domestic water supplies have evolved over centuries, and different types of systems existed in different parts of India’s geographical landscape. Though the design of the traditional systems considered the hydrological, geohydrological, climatic and topographical conditions, the building of such systems was also constrained by the technology that existed at that point of time. They were largely local systems and were very susceptible to stress induced by local hydrological and climatic extremes. The modern water systems in India are characterized by their large size, are far more dependable than the traditional systems, and are less susceptible to drought conditions.

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Vedantam Niranjan has a master’s degree in environmental management. He has nearly 14 years of experience in the fields of environmental impact assessments, baseline environmental studies, water resources management, and teaching. He had prepared EIA reports for many major industries in India and abroad. Niranjan has worked on irrigation efficiencies and water productivity in agriculture. He is experienced in performance evaluation of major, medium, and minor irrigation projects. While working in IRAP (from 2010–2015), he was a part of two major projects, one is “Agrarian Crisis in India” sponsored by ICSSR and the other is “Drought monitoring in Maharashtra” supported by UNICEF, Mumbai. He had also played a major role in the research support for “Multiple use of water services to reduce poverty and vulnerability to climate variability and change,” Maharashtra, supported by UNICEF Mumbai. M. Dinesh Kumar did his B-Tech in Civil Engineering in 1988, M. E. in Water Resources Management in 1991 and Ph. D in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF; international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (US), and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala). He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters, and many journal articles. He has published in many international peerreviewed journals viz., Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Management, Int. Journal of WRD and Water Economics and Policy. He is currently also Associate Editor of Water Policy and Member of the Editorial Board of Int. Journal of WRD. His research works of global relevance are: integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water & food security challenges; climate risk in WASH; and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. Nitin Bassi is a Natural Resource Management specialist (M. Phil) having nearly 13 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy, and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a Principal Researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include River Basin and Catchment Assessment, Water Accounting, Institutional and Policy Analysis in Irrigation and Water Supply Management, Water Quality Analysis, Climate Variability, and Climate-induced Water Risk Analysis and Wetland Management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in projects, research studies, and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT, and SDTT.

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He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD & GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge UK, and has several book chapters, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal of Water Resources Development; Journal of Hydrology; and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.

Chapter 3

Water Management Challenges of Climate Extremes: A Case Study of Adaptive Strategies and Management Options M. Dinesh Kumar and Nitin Bassi

Abstract The chapter discusses water resources management issues and challenges in the Mahanadi river basin, particularly those posed by climate variability and climate change. The chapter analyses the long-term changes in the basin hydrology, along with its inter-annual variability, and implications for the sustainability of irrigation systems and drinking water sources are drawn. The current water uses in irrigation, industrial and rural and urban domestic water supply sectors are also evaluated against the potential supplies from the existing water systems. A base case scenario of future water balance for the projected changes in socio-economic conditions and climate variables is developed using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system. The base case scenario is compared with scenarios that consider different water management interventions and the potential impacts of the water management interventions in reducing water stresses in the basin under various climate scenarios including severe drought scenario, and demand growth scenarios were assessed. Accordingly, the strategies for reducing the water stresses induced by demand growth and hydrological changes resulting from climate change and extreme events are also discussed. Keywords Mahanadi river basin · Basin hydrology · WEAP · Water balance · Water management interventions

M. Dinesh Kumar (*) Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India e-mail: [email protected] N. Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_3

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3.1

M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Introduction

The Mahanadi River is the lifeline for major economic activities in the state of Chhattisgarh and supplies water for municipal uses to major cities like Raipur, to industrial areas like Durg and irrigates several thousands of hectares of agriculture land. The basin, however, displays high degree of heterogeneity in its characteristics. Droughts are prevalent in the central part of the basin in Chhattisgarh whereas eastern coastal region in Odisha is prone to floods and cyclones. The quantum of water drained by the Mahanadi River annually into the ocean in an average year is very large. However, there is high year-to-year variability in the basin yield and the river discharge, owing to high inter-annual variability in the rainfall (CWC and NRSC 2014). The population of urban areas in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin has been growing at a rapid rate of 3.3% per annum since 1991, with a much higher rate during the previous decades. With rapidly growing economic activities, manifested by rapid industrialization and urbanization in both upper and lower riparian states, viz. Chhattisgarh and Odisha, the water resources of the basin would come under enormous stress in future. Such stresses would magnify during droughts. This can lead to conflicts over allocation of water from the basin within as well as between states. Water management system of the basin has to move from traditional one based on mere supply augmentation to one which adapts to changing hydrological regime and socio-economic realities, by broadening its scope to include ‘water demand management’, with focus on water use efficiency improvements in key sectors of water use, pollution reduction and transfer of water from low value uses to alternative uses that are more efficient. Being a state with high dependence on natural resources and with a relatively low level of human development, the threat perceived by the state from climate-induced water-related hazards are great. Available evidence shows that there is high probability of increase in the frequency and intensity of climate-related natural hazards due to climate change and hence increase in potential threat due to climate changerelated natural disasters. With a significant proportion of the population dependent on rain-fed agriculture, animal husbandry, fisheries and forest-based livelihoods, any change in precipitation and temperature patterns could significantly impact lives of the vulnerable population. The water resources in the state are to be managed in future for improving climate resilience. This chapter discusses water resources management issues and challenges in the Mahanadi river basin, an inter-state river basin in eastern India, particularly that posed by climate variability and climate change. The chapter analyses the long-term changes in the basin hydrology, including rainfall, stream-flows and groundwater levels, along with its inter-annual variability and draws implications for the sustainability of irrigation systems and drinking water sources. The current water uses in irrigation, industrial and rural and urban domestic water supply sectors are also evaluated against the potential supplies from the existing water systems. A base case scenario of future water balance for the projected changes in socio-economic

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conditions and climate variables is developed using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, and is compared with scenarios that consider different water management interventions, especially in the irrigation sector, and change in climate to examine the potential impacts of the water management interventions in reducing water stresses in the basin under different climate scenarios including severe droughts.

3.2

An Overview of Mahanadi River Basin

The Mahanadi is one of the major peninsular rivers of the country. It is the eighth largest basin in India, having a total catchment area of 140,000 sq. km. The basin lies between 80
280 and 86
430 east longitudes and 19
80 and 23
320 north longitudes. It is physically bounded in the north by Central India hills, in the south and east by the Eastern Ghats and in the West by Maikala hill range. The catchment area of the basin extends over major parts of Chhattisgarh and Odisha states, constituting about 52% and 47% of the basin area, respectively. Very small portions of the basin’s drainage area also fall in Jharkhand (0.1%), Maharashtra (0.23%) and Madhya Pradesh (0.1%). The river originates in Dhamtari district of Chhattisgarh and drains into the Bay of Bengal. The main river has a total length of 851 km. The three major tributaries namely the Seonath and the Ib on the left bank and the Tel on the right bank together constitute nearly 46.63% of the total catchment area of the River Mahanadi. Six other small streams between the Mahanadi and the Rushikulya drain directly into Chilika Lake and also form the part of the basin. The average annual runoff in the basin is about 67 BCM. As there is a high spatial variation in rainfall, droughts are prevalent in some districts whereas others are prone to waterlogging. The basin is divided into three segments, viz. the Upper, Middle and Lower Mahanadi (Map 3.1). The Upper Mahanadi is drained mainly by the Seonath, the Arpa, the Kurung and the Sakri River. The Middle Mahanadi comprises of the Mahanadi, the Jonk, the IB, the Bhedan and the Mand rivers. The Lower Mahanadi covers southern and coastal part of the basin and is drained by the Ong, the Tel, the Hati and the Daya River.

3.2.1

Topography, Climate, Land Use, Soils and Demography

The Mahanadi river basin has varying topography with the lowest elevation in coastal reaches and highest elevation found in northern hills. A major portion of the area of the plains region of the Mahanadi valley falls under the 200–400 m elevation zone. The Upper Mahanadi basin with its predominant hilly terrain in its northern upper part has elevation range from 750 to 1000 m. The central flank of Upper Mahanadi, which is drained by Seonath River, is a plain area having elevation

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Map 3.1 Drainage-basins of Mahanadi river. (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014)

range of 200–300 m surrounded by higher hills on its west having height between 300 and 400 m. The Middle Mahanadi has hilly terrain in its north-eastern stretch. This part has highest elevation—750-1000 m. The area near upper reaches of the Mahanadi River has elevation between 500 and 750 m. The central tableland which divides the Mahanadi middle and lower sub-basin has general elevation of 400–500 m. The coastal plain stretching over the districts of Cuttack and Puri covers the large delta and elevation decreases towards this deltaic stretch reaching up to 10–50 m. The basin experiences four distinct seasons, i.e. cold weather, hot weather, southwest monsoon and the post-monsoon. Convergence thunderstorms are quite frequent in hot season comprising March to April, bringing some rainfall, especially in the hills. The highest relative humidity in the basin varies between 68% and 87% and occurs during July/August. The lowest relative humidity occurs during April/May and varies between 9% and 45%. The average highest relative humidity in the basin is 82% and the average lowest relative humidity is about 32%. Major part of the basin area receives 1200–1400 mm of rainfall (with some parts recording nearly 1600 mm of rainfall) with an average annual basin rainfall of about 1292 mm. More than 90% of the total annual rainfall occurs during monsoon season which is spread over 5 months from June to October. The highest 24-hour rainfall recorded in the basin is 582 mm in Sambalpur during May, 1982. However, as many as 14 districts (five in Chhattisgarh and nine in Odisha) in the basin are droughtprone (CWC and NRSC 2014). December and January are the coldest months with an average minimum temperature of 12
C. April and May are the hottest months

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during which the maximum temperature is in the range of 39–40
C. The maximum temperature ever recorded in the basin is about 50
C in June, 2003. Major parts of the basin are covered with agricultural land accounting for nearly 54% of the total basin area. Except in the districts of Durg and Raipur and coastal plains, the basin has a significant area under forests with deciduous forest covering 29% and scrub forest covering about 4% of the total area. About 5% of the basin area is covered by water bodies which include reservoirs, lakes, rivers, etc. There are two large water bodies in the basin, the Hirakud reservoir and Chilika Lake. Inland wetland covers about 28,000 ha of land, gullies and ravines area covers an area of 31,500 ha and area under shifting cultivation is about 13,000 ha. The main soil types found in the basin are red and yellow soils, mixed red and black soils, laterite soils and deltaic soils. The basin encompasses 45 districts. The total population of the basin is about 28 million, out of which more than 50% inhabit the Lower Mahanadi basin. Coastal plains are the most densely populated while the hilly areas have a relatively low population density. The most densely populated districts are Khordha and Jagatsinghpur of Odisha, having population density of 400–450 persons per sq. km. The population in parts of the basin lying in northern plateau and hilly areas has a relatively large number of scheduled tribes. As lower reaches are flooded annually, many people lose their shelters.

3.2.2

Surface and Ground Water Availability and Water Quality

The annual utilizable surface water potential of the Mahanadi basin is estimated to be 50 BCM (CWC and NRSC 2014). The basin has a total surface water storage capacity of 14.244 BCM, with a large surface water potential remaining untapped. The basin has a total of 74 irrigation and 5 hydroelectric projects, out of which 63 projects are completed and 11 are on-going. The Hirakud and Hasdeo Bango reservoirs with a gross storage capacity of 8.136 BCM and 3.417 BCM, respectively, are the biggest storages. However, delta region of the basin often experiences severe flooding due to inadequate carrying capacity of the channels. The utilizable groundwater potential of the basin is about 16.5 BCM. The major surface water systems in the basin are presented in Map 3.2. The Central Water Commission (CWC) maintains 39 gauge-discharge sites in the basin. Out of these, sediment observations are also made in 13 stations. In addition, gauge-discharge data are available at 34 sites established by the two state governments. Further, the CWC maintains four flood forecasting stations in the basin. Also, there are about 1147 groundwater observation wells in the whole basin, maintained jointly by the Central Ground Water Board and the groundwater wings of the state Water Resources Departments. As regards water quality, the data available from the inter-state river border monitoring programme of the Central Pollution Control Board (2015) for a location in the Hirakud reservoir showed biological oxygen demand (BOD) in the range of

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Map 3.2 Mahanadi basin showing major water systems. (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014)

0–3.0 mg/litre and chemical oxygen demand (COD) in the range of 5–15 mg/litre. The dissolved oxygen (DO) was found to be in the range of 6.4–8.35 mg/litre. However, the bacteriological quality of water was found to be very poor with the total coliform (TC) in the range of 408–27,000 MPN/100 ml and faecal coliform (FC) in the range of 63.0–6900.0 MPN/100 ml (CPCB 2015). As per CPCB (2012), the main river Mahanadi and its tributaries in the Chhattisgarh part of the basin are meeting water quality criteria stipulated for streams, except for DO values in one or two locations (upstream of Korba in Hasdeo River). However, the report shows that larger number of locations in the main river in Odisha part of the basin show high concentration of BOD and nitrates. These locations are closer to major cities/towns such as Cuttack, Sambalpur and Brajrajnagar (CPCB 2012).

3.3 3.3.1

Detailed Analysis of Surface Hydrology and Geohydrology Rainfall, Stream-Flows and Groundwater

Two sub-basins of the Mahanadi river basin fall in Chhattisgarh. For developing the rainfall-runoff model of this part of the weighted average of the annual rainfall and annual stream-flow data for various gauging stations in the Upper and Middle

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Table 3.1 Inter-annual variation in stream-flow

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Particulars Catchment area (sq. km) Average annual rainfall (mm) Average annual stream-flows (MCM) Highest annual flows (MCM) Lowest annual flows (MCM) CV in annual stream-flow (%) Average annual runoff/unit area (MCM/sq. km)

Gauging locations-upper sub-basin Andhiyarkore Pathardi 2210 2511 1300 1300 331 1023

Gauging locations-middle sub-basin Kurubhata Manendragarh 4625 1100 1250 1250 2352 337

851 35 56 0.15

5114 878 36 0.51

2170 323 47 0.41

620 198 40 0.31

Source: Authors’ analysis using data from Central Water Commission (CWC), MoWR, RD & GR

Mahanadi River, sub-basins were considered. Two river gauging sites having no large water diversion infrastructure in their upper catchment were identified for each sub-basin. Stream-flow data was available from 1978–79 to 2010–11 for gauging point at Andhiyarkore and from 1989–90 to 2010–11 for Pathardi in upper sub-basin. For middle sub-basin, it was available for the period from 1978–79 to 2011–12 for Kurubhata and from 1989–90 to 2010–11 for Manendragarh. Data on average annual rainfall were available for the period from 1971 to 2004 for both the sub-basins. Average annual rainfall varies from 888 mm to 1988 mm in upper (long-term annual mean rainfall is 1300 mm) and 861 mm to 1739 mm in middle (long-term annual mean rainfall is 1250 mm) sub-basins. However, the inter-annual variability in rainfall in both upper (CV ¼ 17%) and middle sub-basin (CV ¼ 16%) is not very high. In contrast, there is high inter-annual variability in stream-flows, highest in Andhiyarkore and lowest in Kurubhata (Table 1b). Further, for the same amount of rainfall, runoff generated per unit of catchment area in upper sub-basin is higher for Parthardi; and in middle sub-basin, it is for Kurubhata. Overall, higher variability in stream-flows was observed in upper sub-basin in comparison to the middle sub-basin (Table 3.1).

3.3.1.1

Observed Flows in the Mahanadi

The historical data of stream-flows recorded at the three important gauging sites in the Mahanadi river basin are presented in Fig. 3.1. One of the gauging sites is located immediately upstream of the Hirakud reservoir in Odisha, in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin. The annual inflows at a gauging site in Basantpur and that in another gauging site (Kurubhata) in a tributary of the Mahanadi which joins the trunk river downstream of the first gauging site were added to get the estimated total streamflow upstream of the Hirakud. This will be some error in the quantification of the total inflows, as there is a small residual catchment between the gauging station

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Anual Flow in MCM

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

Fig. 3.1 Estimated stream-flows upstream of Hirakud reservoir in Chhattisgarh. (Source: Authors’ estimate based on the CWC data)

on the Mahanadi River and the point of confluence of the Mahanadi and its tributary, whose inflow is considered in the analysis. Further, the figure cannot be considered as the inflow into the Hirakud, as there is an important tributary from Odisha joining the main river from left, upstream of the reservoir and there are many major impoundments/diversions upstream in Chhattisgarh in the form of major, medium and minor reservoirs and barrages/weirs.1 Nevertheless, as the graph suggests, there is high inter-annual variability in the stream-flows. The maximum observed flow was during 1994–95 (56,473 MCM) and the minimum was 8643 MCM during 2000–01. The analysis of annual stream-flow data for ‘probability of exceedance’ shows that in 75% of the years, the minimum annual flow upstream of the Hirakud dam would be around 15,730 MCM. This is not the runoff generated in the upper catchment Hirakud, but the excess flow available after all the (effective) diversions through reservoirs and diversion structures for various consumptive uses.

3.3.1.2

Groundwater Resources

As per the official estimates of CGWB, the total renewable groundwater availability in the districts falling in the 15 districts falling in the Mahanadi river basin is 6540 MCM. This takes into account the recharge during monsoon and recharge during non-monsoon periods and also the natural discharge during the non-monsoon period. Against this, the estimated total annual groundwater abstraction is 3146 MCM. As per official estimates, groundwater development in the Chhattisgarh part of the basin is quite low, i.e. 48%. District wise analysis also shows that the stage of development

1

The six major/medium dams upstream of the Hirakud are: Sisakar dam, Dudhwana dam, Tandula dam, Ravishankar Sagar dam, Minimala Bango dam and Murumsilli dam. The weirs/barrages are: New Rudri barrage, Jonk diversion weir, Korba barrage and Pairy pick up weir.

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Total estimated flows upstream of Hirakud reservoir

is less than 50% in 10 out of the 15 districts, falling in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin. According to the estimates, the natural discharge during the non-monsoon season is 475 MCM. However, the estimates show a non-monsoon recharge of 1176 MCM, which is higher than the natural discharge. These figures of natural discharge need to be cross tallied with the actual lean season flows in the rivers and streams from the region, going by the assumption that the lean season flows would actually represent the natural groundwater discharge if there are no major rainfall events during that period. The values of lean season flow from November to May in the Mahanadi River and its tributary upstream of the Hirakud reservoir, estimated on the basis of observed flows in the trunk river (at Basantpur) and its tributary (at Kurubhata) for the period from 1978–79 to 2010–11 are provided Fig. 3.2. Their analysis shows a mean annual lean season flow of 1839 MCM. The value ranges from a lowest of 507 MCM in 1988–89 to a highest of 4611 MCM in 1998–99. Of these, the lean season flows for 1997–98 and 1998–99 appear to be exceptionally large, in terms of the contribution of lean season flows to total annual flow (21% and 22% of the total annual flow, respectively). This may be due to rains occurring beyond October, and therefore, the values may not represent the actual base flow alone and instead can include surface runoff also. Hence, these values can be removed. The average lean season flows therefore comes down to 1663 MCM. The total catchment area which these gauging points represent is less than the total area of the 15 districts for which the natural discharge was estimated. Hence, it can be argued that the figures of natural discharge considered by CGWB for arriving at the annual utilizable groundwater resources are under-estimates, and that the actual utilizable recharge is much less than what is available from their methodology. The difference is in the order of magnitude of 1100–1200 MCM.

60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

Monsoon Flows

Non-Monsoon Flows

Fig. 3.2 Total estimated monsoon and non-monsoon flows in Mahanadi upstream of Hirakud reservoir. (Source: Authors’ estimate based on the CWC data)

54

3.3.2

M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Analysis of Surface Hydrology in Chhattisgarh Part of Mahanadi Basin

The Upper Mahanadi sub-basin with an area of 29,796.6 sq. km falls fully in Chhattisgarh; and a major portion of the middle one with an area of 51,895.9 sq. km also falls in Chhattisgarh. A very small portion of the Lower Mahanadi also falls in Chhattisgarh. The stream-flows in the Mahanadi River and its tributaries are contributed by direct surface runoff resulting from precipitation, return flows from irrigated fields and towns/cities and base flows, the last one being the natural discharge from groundwater into streams. However, the groundwater discharge into surface streams during non-monsoon period depends on the groundwater levels, which again is an outcome of the recharge taking place during the non-monsoon period from irrigation return flows, canal seepage and water stored in tanks, ponds and lakes. Hence, to analyse the natural runoff in relation to precipitation, catchments which have least interventions in terms of water diversions, canal irrigated areas and artificial recharge sites will have to be selected. Otherwise, the observed stream-flows can contain wastewater from cities/towns and irrigation return flows as significant components, and hence cannot be treated as natural runoff. Even if the conditions mentioned above are met, the observed stream-flows may not represent the actual runoff generated in the catchment, owing to the fact that the basin also has many small water bodies such as tanks and lakes, which collect runoff from smaller catchments. Such hydrological features would affect the robustness of the model. Keeping in view these points and considering the data availability, regression analysis was performed, for the common data points, between annual rainfall and the observed stream-flows for the selected gauging points. A total of two catchments were selected from both the sub-basins. Here it is assumed that the observed flows are close to the actual runoff generated and that there are no major diversions of water upstream of the discharge gauging sites, which are un-recorded. Further, as indicated by the rainfall isohyets, spatial variability in rainfall for the whole basin is not very high (CWC and NRSC 2014) and more importantly, the variation within the two sub-basins also is not high. Thus, average annual rainfall of upper and middle sub-basins can be considered as representative of the rainfall in the two catchments which were identified for developing the rainfall-runoff model, for each sub-basin. Nevertheless, if the rainfall data for the catchments in question are available from India Meteorological Department (IMD), the models could be re-constructed. Alternatively, the data of spatial average rainfall for the same sub-basin can be collected for extended time period and models can be re-refined. Some data points, i.e. data pertaining to the hydrological year, 2003–04 for Andhiyarkore, 1991–92 for Pathardi, 1991–92 and 1999–00 for Kurubhata and 1996–97 and 1997–98 for Manendragarh, were treated as outliers and not considered for the analysis. The years 1991–92, 2000–01 and 2002–03 were drought years, and 1990–91, 1994–95, 1997–98 and 2003–04 were wet years. These are potential outliers because of the following reasons: (1) during drought years, there could be significant pumping during the monsoon season owing to reduced stream-flows and

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Streamflows (MCM)

this could affect the monsoon base flows, affecting the runoff generation and won’t represent the hydrological processes that occur in normal years; and (2) during excessively wet years, it is quite likely that the data collection is not properly owing to flood situation. Overall, the estimated R-square values show a good fit to the observed data for both upper and middle sub-basins. Figure 3.3 shows the rainfall-runoff relationship for one of the catchments (Andhiyarkore) in the upper sub-basin. Figure 3.4 shows the same for one of the catchments (Kurubhata) in the middle sub-basin. The rainfallrunoff models for the four catchments are given in Table 3.2. As evident from Table 3.2, runoff to a given quantum of annual rainfall in the catchment can be 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 800

y = 0.5969x - 422.43 R2 = 0.5588

1000

1200

1400 Rainfall (mm)

1600

1800

2000

Fig. 3.3 Rainfall-runoff relationship, Andhiyarkore. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre)

6000 Streamflows (MCM)

5000

y = 3.3435x - 1735.9 R2 = 0.6677

4000 3000 2000 1000

0 800

1000

1200 1400 Rainfall (mm)

1600

1800

Fig. 3.4 Rainfall-runoff relationship, Kurubhata. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre)

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Table 3.2 Rainfall-runoff models for the four selected catchments Catchment name Andhiyarkore Parthardi Kurubhata Manendragarh

Catchment area (sq. km) 2210.0 2511.0 4625.0 1100.0

Rainfall-runoff relationship for the catchment Y ¼ 0.597   422.4 Y ¼ 1.517   1106.3 Y ¼ 3.343   1735.9 Y ¼ 0.5105   269.9

Rainfall-runoff model for unit catchment (mm) Y ¼ 0.27   191.00 Y ¼ 0.46   440.50 Y ¼ 0.722   375.10 Y ¼ 0.46   245.50

Source: Authors’ own estimates Table 3.3 Area under different geological formations in Mahanadi basin drainage area of Chhattisgarh Name of the basin Lower Mahanadi Middle Mahanadi Upper Mahanadi Total area Percentage area

Area under different geological formations (sq. km) Total Sandstone Shale Limestone Granite area area area area area 2662.5 775.7 44.3 214.2

BGC area 1582.4

Gneiss area 45.9

42943.6

14996.4

5169.3

3007.8

30.3

17958.7

1431.9

30543.9

1374.6

6623.1

12416.3

1492.4

3597.1

2213.5

76,150

17146.7 22.52

11836.7 15.54

15424.1 20.25

1736.9 2.28

23138.2 30.39

3691.3 4.85

Source: CGWB, North Central Chhattisgarh Region 2012

estimated more precisely for the middle sub-basin (higher R-square values) than for the upper sub-basin. For all the selected locations, relationship is linear. The regression curve for Andhiyarkore can be chosen as the rainfall-runoff relationship for the upper sub-basin as it gives the best fit. Similarly, the model established for Manendragarh can be chosen for estimating the future runoff for the middle sub-basin. However, in both the cases, the mathematical equations should be divided by the area of the catchment to obtain the runoff rate for a unit catchment, for a given rainfall ‘X’. The rainfall-runoff regression equations in the last column of Table 3.3 would produce runoff (Y) for the rainfall values X (mm) per sq. km area in millimetres. These models can be used to estimate the total runoff from other catchments, having similar hydrological characteristics, in the respective sub-basins.

3.3.3

Analysis of Groundwater Resources of Mahanadi Basin

The aquifer system of Chhattisgarh is complex and heterogeneous. They are largely consolidated formations. A very small fraction of the geographical area is under alluvium. The formations consist of sandstone, shale, limestone, BGC, granite,

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gneiss and basalt. In the Mahanadi basin area of Chhattisgarh (Upper and Middle Mahanadi sub-basins), four major geological formations, viz. Sandstone, Shale, Limestone and BGC are found (Map 3.3). Map 3.3 shows the Map of Chhattisgarh

Map 3.3 Showing the aquifer systems of Chhattisgarh, with Mahanadi basin boundary. (Source: CGWB, North Central Chhattisgarh Region, 2012)

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

with the Mahanadi basin boundaries and the geographical extent of different aquifers. As Table 3.3 suggests, a large portion of the basin area is underlain by BGC (30.4%), followed by sandstone (22.5%), limestone (20.2%) and shale (15.5%).

3.3.3.1

Middle Mahanadi Basin

Data are available for the Upper and Middle Mahanadi basin area for a large number of observation wells (see Map 3.4). These data pertain to pre- and post-monsoon water levels in the observation wells. These data were first cleaned for consistency. One of the corrections carried out was that in instances where water levels in the observation wells are found to be rising above the post-monsoon levels over time

Map 3.4 Location of groundwater observation wells in middle Mahanadi basin (only wells in Chhattisgarh portion were considered for analysis). (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014)

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(with the pre-monsoon water level of a particular year higher than the post-monsoon levels of the previous year), such data are omitted. In effect, the readings where WL of the observation wells for the pre-monsoon period were recorded as zero, were deleted, treating them as false entries. Well observation data were available for a total of 248 observation wells in 1996, the year since observations are available. Later on, several new observation wells were added and many of the old wells were discarded. In order to have consistency, we have only selected those old observation wells, for which data are available. As a result, the number of observation wells for which data are available had reduced consistently, from 247 in 1996 to 148 in 2014. The analysis of depth to water level records shows the following trends. Generally, water levels rise after the monsoon, irrespective of the amount of rainfall occurring during the period. However, the magnitude of fluctuation keeps varying depending on a wide range of geo-hydrological and climatic factors. These factors can be the following: pre-monsoon depth to water level, which determines the storage space in the aquifer to receive the incoming recharge from precipitation; the groundwater gradient in an area, which is largely governed by the topography and the water levels in the surface streams; the total amount of infiltration, which is determined by the quantum of rainfall and its pattern of occurrence and the geo-hydrological property of the formation (mainly specific yield). If the pre-monsoon depth to water level is very large, and if the amount of precipitation is very high, it is quite likely that the water level fluctuation would be significantly large. Conversely, if the pre-monsoon depth to water level is very low (water table being shallow), then even if large amount of precipitation occurs, the aquifer won’t be able to store the infiltrating water. On the other hand, in hilly and undulating terrains, the monsoon recharge may not remain in the aquifer and might discharge into the streams depending on the difference in water levels between aquifers and the streams and the transmissivity of the aquifer. The depth to water level is as high as 18.13 m (in Baradwar 1), and the next highest depth to water level recorded was 16.23 m (in Devri), both pre-monsoon. The lowest depth to water level of 0.0 m was found in many situations, postmonsoon, indicating the presence of overflowing wells. The average water level fluctuation during monsoon (due to recharge) observed in the 247 observation wells, estimated by taking the average of the difference between post and pre-monsoon depth to water levels for the 19-year period, varies from a maximum of 9.53 m (rise) in the case of Tooman to a minimum of 0.53 m in the case of Dandgaon 2. There was no observation well which shows negative value of average WL fluctuation during monsoon. However, the difference in average water level fluctuation between preand post-monsoon across space in the Middle Mahanadi basin area is very large (Fig. 3.5). This can be explained by the difference in the quantum of rainfall, the factors governing the recharge (groundwater flow gradients in the locality) and the difference in specific yield of the aquifers. As regards the last one, we have already seen that there are different types of aquifers encountered in the basin, with potentially different specific yield values. Further analysis was carried out to be how the average monsoon water level fluctuation changes over the years (from 1996 to 2014). For this, the mean value of

M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Phasimal Birgudi Chindoli Dorgardula Charama Koma khan B k bahera-2 Lavakera-2 Sapos1 Telkoloi Chhapora Khartal Haswa Seorinarayan-2 Kharsia Lefripada Laripani Deokaranpur Gopalpur Chaitama-2 Kersai Kasania Kansabel Binjapur Pathalgaon-2 Ramanuj nagar-1 Khutiya Tuman

Water level fluctuation in wells (m)

60

Water level fluctuation during monsoon (m)

Fig. 3.5 Average monsoon water level fluctuations (1996–2014) in MMB across observation wells. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

Year Fig. 3.6 Average water level fluctuation in MMB during monsoon across years (1999–2014). (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

water level fluctuation during monsoon for all the observation wells was estimated for all the years and plotted (Fig. 3.6). The highest rise in water level across the Mid basin area of the Mahanadi was observed in 2012, with the (spatial) average rise in water level becoming 7.23 m during that year. The lowest rise in water level was during 2000 (3.17 m), which was a drought year. The difference between the drought year and a wet year (7.23–3.17 ¼ 4.06 m) is quite significant. The water level fluctuation during monsoon can be considered as a good indicator for the recharge from precipitation, if we assume that there are no other hydrological stresses on the aquifer during this period. Hence, the data suggest that the overall recharge varies from year to year, that too significantly owing to rainfall. The average water level fluctuation can be used to compute the effective recharge during monsoon in each year, if the specific yield values for the aquifers are known.

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In order to understand the influence of other factors on groundwater dynamic, analysis of water level trends in three observation wells (Patsenduri, BK Behara and Tungaon) selected from the region over the 19-year period for which data are available was carried out. It shows that the inter-annual difference in monsoon water level fluctuation is very high. In the case of first well (Patsenduri), the water level fluctuation ranged from a lowest of 1.1 m (during 2014) to a highest of 8.89 m in 2009. In the case of second well (BK Behara), the water level fluctuation ranged from a lowest of 2.52 m in 2000 to 9.85 m in 2012. In the case of the third well (Tungaon), the maximum fluctuation in water level was 6.92 m in 2001 and the lowest was 0.79 m in 2011. No long-term trend in water levels, either during pre-monsoon or during post-monsoon period, was observed. However, in the case of the well in BK Behara, the incidence of pre-monsoon water level reaching the lowest point in the wells appears to have increased in the recent years. In the case of the two other wells (Patsenduri and Tungaon), the postmonsoon water level was in the range of 1.75–3.38 m (with water level touching the ground in one year) and 0.17–2.75 m, respectively, below ground level, irrespective of the pre-monsoon water table condition. While the pre-monsoon water table condition also varied from year to year, this peculiar water level trend indicates that the water level fluctuation during monsoon or the effective monsoon recharge increases when the pre-monsoon depth to water table is high. A regression analysis carried out between monsoon water level fluctuation and pre-monsoon depth to water table for two observations, viz. Tungaon and Patsenduri, well reinforced this point. The relationship was found to be direct and linear. Higher the depth to water table prior to the onset of monsoon, higher was the water level fluctuation during monsoon, suggestive of higher recharge. The R2 value was 0.80 in the case of BK Behara, and 0.91 in the case of Patsenduri. Figure 3.7 shows the graphical representation of the above-mentioned relationship for Patsenduri. This relationship also suggests that there is adequate amount of infiltration occurring every year from rainfall to bring the water table to the original position, even when the water table touches the lowest level during summer months. In other words, if the pre-monsoon depth to water table is high, the amount of recharge during the monsoon will be less, even if rainfall of high magnitude occurs, with higher proportion of rainfall getting converted into surface runoff or base flow during monsoon. As regards long-term trend in water levels, there is no pattern across the region. Many observation wells recorded rise in water levels over the 19-year period, whereas many others recorded decline. The highest rise in water level was 14.16 m (in Raigarh), and the highest drop in water level was 8.2 m (in Saragaon 2). The long-term change in water levels (pre-monsoon) in the 136 observation wells, for which data for 1996 and 2014 were available, is presented in Fig. 3.8. To illustrate the nature of trend in water levels in individual wells, water level records of two stations, Bhagicha 2 and Batauli 2, were analysed. The analysis showed some consistent decline in pre-monsoon water levels. In the case of Batauli 2, it dropped from 6.62 m to 8.82 m during the 19-year period. In the case of Bhagicha 2, the decline was from 2.54 m to 4.85 m in pre-monsoon 2013 and it went

M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Water level fluctuation during monsoon (m)

62

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

y = -0.95x - 0.4998 R² = 0.9132

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Depth to water table in the well (m)

Fig. 3.7 Water level fluctuation during monsoon vs pre-monsoon depth t water level: Patsenduri. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

10

5

0

-5

-10

Phasimal Birgudi Chindoli Dorgardula Charama Koma khan B k bahera-2 Lavakera-2 Sapos1 Telkoloi Chhapora Khartal Haswa Seorinarayan-2 Kharsia Lefripada Laripani Deokaranpur Gopalpur Chaitama-2 Kersai Kasania Kansabel Binjapur Pathalgaon-2 Ramanuj nagar-1 Khutiya Tuman

Change in depth to water levels (m)

15

Fig. 3.8 Long-term change in water levels in observation wells in mid Mahanadi basin: 1996–2014. (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

further down to 5.98 m after monsoon. Such a decline could be attributed to delayed monsoon and pumping during the season. The water level, however, showed a rise after that with it rising to 3.05 m during the pre-monsoon season of 2014. This is an indication of the dewatering of the shallow aquifers. However, as a result of this, the recharge during monsoon also appears to be increasing, as manifested by an increase in water level rise during monsoon during 2012, 2013 and 2014.

3.3.3.2

Upper Mahanadi Basin

Data on pre- and post-monsoon depth to water levels in 130 observation wells in Upper Mahanadi were collected and analysed in the same manner as that of MMB

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Map 3.5 Location of groundwater observation wells in Upper Mahanadi basin. (Source: CWC and NRSC 2014)

(Map 3.5). The estimates of long-term average of water level fluctuation in observation wells during monsoon, for the time period of 1996 to 2014, are presented in Fig. 3.9. The maximum value of average water level fluctuation is 11.54 m and the minimum value is 0.84 m. Hence, the spatial variation in water level fluctuation behaviour is very sharp across the Upper Mahanadi basin area. Subsequently, the mean values of water level fluctuation in the observation wells of the UMB during monsoon were estimated for each year during the period from 1996 to 2014 (Fig. 3.10). The water level fluctuation during monsoon varied from a lowest of 2.75 m in 2000 to 7.3 m in 2012. The significant variation in average values of water level fluctuation could be explained to a great extent by the year-toyear variation in annual rainfall in the basin. While 2000 was a drought year in Chhattisgarh, 2012 was a wet year. In many years, the average water level

M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00

Chirchari Khairagarh Aroud Nahalda Lal bhadurnagar Raipur Patan Dongargarh Umaria station Jogipur Dashrangpur Saragaon1 Mulmula Pandarbhatha Mohgaon Bilaspur1 Masturi-2 Kawardha Takhatpur-1 Baloda -r Kanteli-1 Pali-2 Beltara-2 Semartal… Mungeli-2 Khodri

Water level fluctuation (m)

64

Average WL fluctuation in metres

Fig. 3.9 Long-term average (1996–2014) of water level fluctuation in UMB during monsoon in different observation wells. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

Fig. 3.10 Average water level fluctuations in observation wells during monsoon in UMB: 1996–2014. (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

fluctuation was close to 4.0 m. However, the influence of annual rainfall on the monsoon recharge would be further investigated using annual rainfall data for the area, which the observation well represents geo-hydrologically. As regards the long-term trend in the water levels, it is a function of not only the annual recharge but also the abstraction. The amount of abstraction is, however, limited by the amount of groundwater stock available given the unique geology of the area. In areas underlain by hard rock formations (like in Chhattisgarh), the amount of groundwater stock available is generally very negligible. Therefore, the maximum amount of water that can be pumped out from the aquifer in a year is the annual utilizable recharge (monsoon recharge + recharge during the non-monsoon period – outflows during the non-monsoon period) during a year and carry over

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storage, if any, available. Long-term decline in water levels is expected in areas, where the abstraction is very low in the initial years (in comparison to the recharge) and gradually keeps increasing over time. The long-term changes in water levels in the observation wells (62 nos.) were analysed by taking the difference between pre-monsoon water levels of 2014 and 1996. The results are presented in Fig. 3.11. In 29 out of the 62 observation wells, the water level change was negative, indicating a drop in water levels. The remaining 33 observation wells showed some rise in water levels as compared to the situation prior to the monsoon of 1996. In order to have an in-depth understanding of the groundwater level trends across seasons and across years and the factors influencing these trends, water level data of three observation wells, viz. Rangkathera, Patan and Abhanpur, for a 19-year time period, were analysed. Analysis shows that both the pre- and post-monsoon water levels changed from year to year, for all the observation wells. This can be attributed to the variation in the annual pumping and recharge, wherein the pumping itself changes with changes in precipitation during the year, particularly the monsoon season. However, there is no significant long-term trend in water levels observed. A closer look at the individual observation wells shows that the pre-monsoon water level has hit a lowest point in Abhanpur in 2014. However, there was drastic rise in water levels during the same year after the monsoon, with a total rise of 14.87 m. Regression analysis carried out between depth to pre-monsoon water level and water level fluctuation during monsoon showed strong linear correlation in the case of Abhanpur (R2 ¼ 0.91) (Fig. 3.12) and slightly weaker correlation in the case of Patan (R2–0.51), similar to the trend found in the Middle Mahanadi basin. This relationship essentially means that reduced space in the aquifer is leading to reduction in monsoon recharge. The reason for gradual rising of pre-monsoon water levels needs to be investigated.

10 5

Khodri

Mungeli-2

Semartal [gatauri]l

Pali-2

Beltara-2

Mulmula Pandarbhatha Mohgaon Bilaspur1 Masturi-2 Kawardha Takhatpur-1 Baloda -r Kanteli-1

Saragaon1

Jogipur

Dashrangpur

Raipur Patan Dongargarh Umaria station

Aroud

Lal bhadurnagar

-10

Nahalda

-5

Chirchari

0 Khairagarh

Change in Depth to water level (m)

15

-15

Fig. 3.11 Long-term change in pre-monsoon water levels in different ob. wells (1996–2014). (Source: Authors’ estimates using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Water level fluctuation during monsoon (m)

66

16 14 12 10 8 y = -0.876x - 3.1075 R² = 0.8961

6 4 2 0

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Pre monsoon depth to water levels m)

Fig. 3.12 Monsoon water level fluctuation vs pre-monsoon water levels: Abhanpur. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) data set)

3.4

Climate Change Issues in Chhattisgarh with Particular Reference to Mahanadi Basin

Two important climate variables which can significantly impact on water resources through alterations in runoff and recharge and soil moisture storage, and demand for water are rainfall and evapotranspiration. A mere increase in magnitude of rainfall can increase runoff from a catchment. For the same magnitude of rainfall, increase in intensity with no major change in the duration of dry spells can also increase runoff, whereas the same can adversely affect the amount of recharge. An increase in temperature, combined with reduced vapour pressure can increase evapotranspiration, pushing the crop water requirements up. Increase in temperature and reduced humidity can also increase the rate of depletion of soil moisture, reducing the runoff and groundwater recharge rates. However, analysis of climate data was limited to analysis of long-term trends in rainfall due to lack of long-term data on other weather parameters.

3.4.1

Analysis of Rainfall as a Climate Variable in Mahanadi River Basin

The daily rainfall data from seven rain-gauging stations in Chhattisgarh were collected and analysed. For rainfall pattern, number of rainy days in a year and the dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon were considered. Detailed analyses were carried out with the total magnitude of annual rainfall, annual rainy days and dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon were considered. The types of analysis included the following: estimation of coefficient of variation in the rainfall and rainy days,

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which is indicative of inter-annual variability, using historical data; estimation of long-term trends in rainfall using Mann-Kendall analysis to understand the nature of trend, the slope and the significance; estimation of standard precipitation index (SPI) values for the gauging stations to assess the frequency of occurrence of droughts of different magnitudes, and probability of occurrence of droughts and wet years of different intensities; long-term changes in the date of onset and withdrawal of monsoon and the relationship between rainfall and the pattern of occurrence of rains (in terms of rainy days).

3.4.2

Rainfall Characteristics

Analyses of rainfall data of seven locations (Table 3.4) show that the mean values vary from a lowest of 960 mm (Admabad Tandula) to 1435 mm (Dararikorba). The coefficient of variation in rainfall varies from a lowest of 22.2% in Janjgir near Kudurmal, which has a mean annual rainfall of 1233 mm to a highest of 30.7% in Raigarh, having an annual rainfall of 1212 mm. In the case of Dararikorba, the difference between maximum and minimum rainfall was around 1990 mm, which is far higher than the mean annual rainfall recorded in that location. The number of rainy days varies from a lowest of 51 in Admabad Tandula to a highest of 80 in Dararikorba, which recorded the highest mean annual rainfall (Table 3.5). Coefficient of variation in rainy days varies from a lowest of 17 (for two locations) to a highest of 34 for Khutaghat which receive rainfall in 54 days. Further, the locations which correspond to low mean annual rainfall also have rainfall occurring in fewer rainy days, and vice versa. For instance, Admabad has the lowest mean annual. It also recorded the lowest number of mean annual rainy days. Dararikorba which recorded the highest (mean) annual rainfall also has rainfall occurring in largest number of days. Therefore, there seem to be some strong correlation between rainfall and rainy days.

Table 3.4 Analysis of point rainfall of seven locations in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi basin Trends in point rainfall of Chhattisgarh Rain gauge stations Year Admabad Tandula 1975–2015 Dararikorba 1975–2015 Janjgir near Kudurmal 1975–2015 Khutaghat 1975–2015 Moorumsilli 1975–2015 Raigarh 1975–2015 Rudri 1975–2015

Mean 959.32 1435.54 1233.25 1161.57 1239.22 1212.87 1253.24

SD 283.31 391.99 273.78 288.31 291.40 372.52 302.20

CV 29.53 27.31 22.20 24.82 23.51 30.71 24.11

Maximum 1529.00 2579.22 2116.23 1831.00 1999.30 2038.90 2149.20

Minimum 453.00 590.27 813.25 663.00 611.00 634.60 720.60

Source: Authors’ estimates based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Table 3.5 Analysis of data of rainy days of seven rain gauge stations in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi basin Trends in rainfall pattern of Chhattisgarh Rain gauge stations Year Admabad Tandula 1975–2015 Dararikorba 1975–2015 Janjgir near Kudurmal 1975–2015 Khutaghat 1975–2015 Moorumsilli 1975–2015 Raigarh 1975–2015 Rudri 1975–2015

Mean 51 80 61 54 64 72 61

SD 11 14 11 18 11 15 11

CV 21 17 19 34 17 21 19

Maximum 75 102 91 89 92 103 95

Minimum 27 36 40 20 42 36 39

Source: Authors’ estimates based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre

3.4.3

Long-Term Changes in Rainfall and Its Characteristics

The results of the analysis of long-term trend in the rainfall and its pattern show the following trends: in four out of the seven locations, rainfall showed declining trend, and in the rest three, the trend is ascending one. However, only in one out of the four cases where there is declining trend in the rainfall, it is statistically significant with the Mann-Kendall Z value nearly becoming 1.96. The average decline in the rainfall is nearly 7 mm per year, based on 41-year data (1975–2015). In cases, where the annual rainfall showed an ascending trend, the trend is not statistically significant. The graphical representation of the long-term trend in annual rainfall in different gauging stations is given in Fig. 3.13. As regards rainfall pattern, six out of the seven locations showed decreasing trend against four locations in the case of rainfall magnitude. In only one location, the rainy days increased over a period of 41 years. However, statistically significant long-term trend in the number of days of occurrence of rainfall was found in three out of the six locations. The average decline in rainy days varied from 0.375 for Dararikorba to 1.0 in the Khutaghat. In the only location where the long-term trend in rainy days was positive, it was found to be statistically not significant. The graphical representation of the long-term trend in rainy days in the seven locations is given in Fig. 3.14. Further analysis was carried out to find out whether there has been any notable change in the duration of monsoon season. No major change of the date of onset and withdrawal of monsoon was noticed in any of the locations, except Khotaghat. In the case of Khotaghat, the date of onset of monsoon has been pushed, while the date of withdrawal has moved ahead, with the result that there is some notable reduction in the duration of monsoon. This does not automatically mean that there has been some reduction in number of rainy days too. It can also mean that the gap between two rainy days decreased, or rains occur more frequently. However, as we have seen early from the trend analysis of rainy days, in the case of Khotaghat, there has been statistically significant reduction in number of rainy days also, with the number of rainy days reducing by almost 40 days. The graphical representations of the monsoon trends are provided in Fig. 3.15, 3.16 and 3.17, respectively, for Admabad Tandula, Dararikorba and Khotaghat.

8.000

1.00

6.000

0.50

4.000

0.00

2.000

-0.50

0.000

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Mann-Kendall Z

-4.000

Magnitude (mm/year)

-2.00

-6.000

-2.50

-8.000

Sen Slope (mm/year)

Mann-Kendall Z

1.50

Fig. 3.13 Rainfall trend indicated by point rainfall in Chhattisgarh. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre)

Mann-Kendall Z

Magnitude (no/year)

0.400 0.200

Mann-Kendall Z

1.00

0.000

0.00 -1.00

Admabad Dararikorba Janjgir near Khutaghat Moorumsilli Raigarh Tandula Kudurmal

Rudri

-0.200 -0.400

-2.00

-0.600

-3.00

-0.800

-4.00

-1.000

-5.00

-1.200

Magnitude (no/year)

2.00

Fig. 3.14 Rainy days indicated by point rainfall in Chhattisgarh. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre)

Duration

Linear (Arrival)

Linear (Withdrwal)

12-Dec 22-Nov 2-Nov 13-Oct 23-Sep 3-Sep 14-Aug 25-Jul 5-Jul 15-Jun 26-May 6-May 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2012 2015

Fig. 3.15 Duration of monsoon as recorded in Admabad Tandula. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre)

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi Duration

Linear (Arrival)

Linear (Withdrwal)

12-Dec 22-Nov 2-Nov 13-Oct 23-Sep 3-Sep 14-Aug 25-Jul 5-Jul 15-Jun 26-May 6-May 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Fig. 3.16 Duration of monsoon as recorded in Dararikorba. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre)

Duration

Linear (Arrival)

Linear (Withdrwal)

12-Dec 22-Nov 2-Nov 13-Oct 23-Sep 3-Sep 14-Aug 25-Jul 5-Jul 15-Jun 26-May 6-May 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Fig. 3.17 Duration of monsoon over Khutaghat. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Chhattisgarh State Water Data Centre)

3.5

Current State of Water Resources Development and Water Allocation

The most important in terms of size are Ravishankar Sagar dam, Dudhawa dam, Sikasar dam, Tandula dam, Murumsilli dam and Minimata bango dam. The diversion projects are Korba barrage, Jonk diversion weir, New Rudri barrage and Pairy pick up weir. Of these, Korba barrage is located downstream of Minimata Bango reservoir and is part of that irrigation scheme built around that reservoir. Pairy pick up weir located downstream of Pairy (Sikasar) reservoir is part of the irrigation scheme built around that reservoir. Ravishankar Sagar dam, Murumsilli dam and

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New Rudri barrage are part of the Mahanadi reservoir complex. The total live storage capacity available from six major reservoir systems in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin (with live storage capacity more than 100 MCM) is 4768.9 MCM. This is 34.4% of the total live storage capacity available in the entire Mahanadi river basin. There are 237 reservoirs belonging to minor, medium and major category in the entire basin. This includes some reservoirs of schemes that are still not operational. But, those with gross storage capacity less than 25 MCM constitute nearly 90% (206 nos.) of the reservoirs. Together, they account for only 4.2% of the live storage capacity (587.6 MCM) available in the basin. Table 3.6 shows the capacity of the projects that are operational and which have live storage capacity exceeding 100 MCM. Though groundwater has emerged as a major source of water to meet various human and animal needs (domestic use, livestock drinking, irrigation and industrial production), the problem with groundwater is that the groundwater-based sources (wells and bore wells) have poor dependability due to their open-access nature of the resource and poor supplies. Allocation of water from surface sources is mainly for irrigation in the command areas, manufacturing process in large industrial units including thermal power stations and municipal water supply. The Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin has 4.1 m. ha of cultivated area, from all three seasons put together. Of these, 71% is under paddy, which is grown in all three seasons, viz. autumn, winter and summer. All the cereals (maize, wheat, bajra along with paddy) put together account for 75% of the total cropped area. Pulses account for 17.1% of the gross cropped area and oil seeds account for 4.7%. Only 2.2% of the cropped area is under fruits and vegetables. Out of the total paddy area of 2.93 m. ha, 2.76 m. ha is grown during autumn (July to October), and 0.17 m. ha is grown during summer (February to May). Table 3.6 Gross and live storage capacity of major reservoir projects in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin (capacity exceeding 100 MCM) Sr. no. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Name of the reservoir scheme Ravishankar Sagar reservoir Dudhawa reservoir Murumsilli reservoir Sikasar (Pairy) reservoir Minimata Bango reservoir Tandula reservoir Total storage in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi basin Total storage capacity in Mahanadi river basin

Gross storage capacity (MCM) 909.00 288.68 165.00 216.50 3417.00 322.28 5318.46

Live storage capacity (MCM) 767.00 284.10 162.00 198.88 3046.0 312.30 4768.90

17389.54a

13857.2

30.58 Source: CWC and NRSC 2014 For 237 reservoirs in the basin

a

34.40

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi Cropped area

Irrigated area

10000000 1000000 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1

Fig. 3.18 Cropping and irrigation pattern in Chhattisgarh, Mahanadi basin. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on the data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India)

The total irrigated area in the Chhattisgarh part of the basin is 1.569 m. ha, i.e. 39% of the gross cropped area. Around 63% of this irrigation is from surface sources (canals, tanks and river lift) and 57% is from public canals alone. Figure 3.18 shows the gross cropped area and gross irrigated area of major crops in the Chhattisgarh part of the basin. Summer paddy is fully irrigated (the entire 0.169 m. ha) and a large proportion of autumn paddy (1.16 m. ha, i.e. 42%) is also irrigated. Thus, paddy accounts for 84% of the gross irrigation. In the case of the latter, the crop receives only a few watering as a large proportion of the CWR is taken care of by the monsoon precipitation. The other major irrigated crop is gram (1.17 lac ha). Among oil seeds, only a small proportion of groundnut (kharif), sesame and soya bean and mustard (winter) is irrigated. The pulses other than gram are also not irrigated and survive on the residual moisture in the soil after the monsoon paddy. The other major irrigated crops are sugarcane (117,000 ha) and wheat (54,770 ha). Nearly 99% of sunflower area and 83% of sugarcane area are irrigated. The irrigation pattern indicates that a large proportion of the water diverted for irrigation is used for non-monsoon crops, especially summer paddy. Official data available with us show that there are 125 major industrial units in the Chhattisgarh part of the basin, which are allocated surface water by the Water Resources Department. These industries include thermal power stations, power and steel plants, iron and steel plants, mineral industries and breweries. Of these, 96 are thermal power plants and power and steel plants and have a capacity to generate 59,224 MW of power. The total amount of water allocated annually to all these units put together (as per official estimates) is 2172 MCM of water per annum. As regards water supply to meet the rural domestic and livestock needs, the total water demand for human needs is estimated to be 364 MCM per annum for a total of 14.20 million people. The total current livestock water demand is estimated to be 89.5 MCM per annum, mainly to feed animals such as indigenous cows, buffaloes

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and small ruminants (source: based on authors’ own estimates). Given the small number of rural water supply schemes that exist in the Chhattisgarh part of the basin, we can safely assume that most of the rural water demand is met through groundwater-based sources and local tanks and ponds. The urban water demand is estimated to be 275 MCM per annum for a total of 5.31 million people. A good portion of this concentrated demand for water is met through water supply from surface reservoirs, including large public reservoirs and lakes. Nearly 80% of the population of Raipur city is served by surface sources, mostly through direct lifting of water from Kharoon River and supply from Ravishankar reservoir through a canal (during dry periods), and 20% of the population is served by 20 bore wells located in the city. However, in the case of Bilaspur, another major city in Chhattisgarh, all the water demand is met from underground sources. The city of Bhilai manages its water supplies from three surface sources, viz. Shivnath River (77 mld), Morid tank (2.75 mld) and Maroda tanks. The first two are of Bhilai Municipal Corporation Area and the last one is for Bhilai Steel Plant Township (source: based on http://www.bhilainagarnigam.com/slipws.pdf; NEERI 2005). Large numbers of irrigators use water from wells, and this affects the sustainability of (rural) domestic water supply from groundwater-based sources. Yet, percentage of net area irrigated from wells is quite low in all the districts—in the range of 1.4% (Bastar) and 23.6% in Kawardha. Groundwater use in irrigation has already levelled off in all the districts in the basin. Any further increase in intensity of irrigation from wells will not be possible due to the limited potential of the hard rock aquifers. This is evident from the fact that the districts which have high irrigation intensity (gross irrigated area/gross cropped area) are those which have large percentage of the net sown area under canal irrigation (see Fig. 3.19). Increase in percentage of area under canal irrigation, a proxy for increased allocation of water from canals, also increases the water availability in wells through irrigation return flows and canal seepage. The fact that a large proportion of the area irrigated during non-monsoon season (1.69 lac ha out of 4.37 lac ha) is of paddy, and return flows

90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0.000 0.000

y = 0.9438x + 11.588 R² = 0.8744

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

Fig. 3.19 Irrigation intensity vs canal irrigation. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on the data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India)

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

from paddy can be quite significant if the crop is grown under partially submerged conditions. Thus, dependence on groundwater for securing adequate allocation of water for basic survival needs and irrigation is not a viable proposition for the region. Future water allocation strategies should depend on surface water, which is available in sufficient quantities. Adequate infrastructure for supplying surface water for irrigation to rural areas would also increase the groundwater availability for drinking purpose.

3.6

Water Balance Scenarios for Chhattisgarh Part of Mahanadi Basin

The demand for water in the basin is likely to increase substantially over the next few decades. A major part of the demand growth will result from future expansion in irrigated agriculture and industrial growth, particularly thermal power generation. Some of the growth in future water demand is also likely to come from urban growth, with cities and towns claiming water from the existing and planned reservoirs and other water diversion schemes in the basin to meet the municipal water supply needs. Increase in industrial water consumption and municipal water supplies would also result in more wastewater. It is important to know what impact these developments are likely to have on the river flows and groundwater in the basin and on water quality on a spatial and temporal scale. It is also important to know what kind of water management interventions (on both supply and demand side) would help reduce the demand-supply gap (water deficit) and water pollution and quantify the extent to which these interventions need to be carried out. Such an analysis is not amenable to simple formulations as: (i) increased groundwater abstraction would reduce the lean season flows, (ii) increased water allocation for paddy irrigation through canals could augment groundwater recharge in the command areas during non-monsoon period and (iii) increased diversion of surface water could reduce the stream-flows immediately downstream, but could augment the flows in the river stretches downstream of cities during the lean season due to wastewater return flows from the cities.

3.6.1

Future Water Demand Under Business-as-Usual Scenario

3.6.1.1

Irrigation and Livestock Water Demands

The estimation of future irrigation water demand was considered past growth trends in irrigated area and the total land area available for area expansion. While the past trends give an indication of the pace at which irrigated area has to grow to meet the

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future agricultural production requirements, the land area would act as a constraint. The seasonal irrigation water requirements estimated for the individual crops in the command area of nine reservoir commands and three aquifers, estimated by using the FAO CROPWAT model, which uses the modified Penman Monteith equation, are given in Table 3.7. The model will estimate the water supply requirement for each demand site taking into account the values of ‘conveyance losses’ as stipulated in the model for different types of transmission links (whether canal or pipelines or river channels). In the case of livestock sector, the past growth trends in the population of different types of livestock were considered for estimating future livestock water demand. The livestock water demand in 2030 and 2050 was estimated to be 110.7 MCM and 135.1 MCM, respectively.

3.6.1.2

Domestic Water Demand: Population and Urbanization Projection

Population is an important driver of water demand in many sectors, especially domestic sector and agriculture. Also, the way population drives water demand also demands on where the population growth takes place. Urban population growth will have a much bigger positive impact on demand for water as compared to that of rural population, for the same level of growth. Analysis of data on population of urban and rural areas in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi river basin for the period from 1971 to 2011 shows that the urban growth rate was very high during the first two decades (1971–81 and 1981–91) and came down and stabilized at a CAGR of 3.3% during the last decade (2001–11). However, the rural population growth rate has been fluctuating between a lowest of 1.23% per annum and 2.08% per annum. For future projections, an annual growth rate of 3.3% was considered for urban areas and 1.59% for rural areas. The growth rate considered for rural areas is the average of the decadal growth rate for four consecutive decades prior to 2011. The past growth trends in rural and urban population estimated by the study and the projected future population of the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin are given in Table 3.8. The estimated total population of the region in 2050 is 44,385,489 and of which 40.7% is expected to be in urban area, higher the high urban population growth rate considered for projections. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the urban domestic water demand and rural domestic water demand are estimated to reach 898.60 MCM per annum and 630.9 MCM per annum, respectively, in the year 2050. The corresponding figures for the year 2030 were 497.6 MCM and 424.6 MCM, respectively.

Rabi

Season Kharif Summer

New Rudri Barrage (Mahanadi) 5.11 9.94 0.43 2.80 2.56 0.05 2.56

10.76 5.14

0.73 3.27

5.15

Ravishankar Sagar dam (Mahanadi) 5.11 9.94 0.43 2.80 2.56 0.05 2.56

10.76 5.14

0.73 3.27

5.15

4.12

0.49 3.18

9.21 4.34

4.74

0.75 2.68

9.65 4.71

Kodar dam (Kurar river) 4.19 9.07 0.46 2.26 2.06 0.08 2.06

5.15

0.73 3.27

10.76 5.14

Tandula dam (Seonath river) 5.11 9.94 0.43 2.80 2.56 0.05 2.56

4.12

0.49 3.18

9.21 4.34

Maniyari dam (Maniari river) 3.60 9.33 0.24 2.74 2.45 0.02 2.45

4.74

0.75 2.68

9.65 4.71

Kharung dam (Kurang river) 4.19 9.07 0.46 2.26 2.06 0.08 2.06

0.73 3.27 5.15

4.74

10.76 5.14

Jonk Diversion Weir (Jonk river) 5.11 9.94 0.43 2.80 2.56 0.05 2.56

0.75 2.68

9.65 4.71

Minimata Bango dam (Hasdeo river) 4.19 9.07 0.46 2.26 2.06 0.08 2.06

Source: Based on FAO CROPWAT model, using data on crop growing season and weather data for the locations

Name of the crops Paddy Paddy Maize Wheat Gram Pigeon pea Other pulses Sugarcane Fruits & Vegetables Groundnut Mustard Soya bean Sunflower

Sondur dam (Pairi river) 3.60 9.33 0.24 2.74 2.45 0.02 2.45

Irrigation consumptive use rates by different crops at the demand sites (‘000 m3 per ha)

Table 3.7 Estimated irrigation water use rates for different crops in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin

5.15

0.73 3.27

10.76 5.14

Bilaspur aquifer 5.11 9.94 0.43 2.80 2.56 0.05 2.56

3.09

0.26 3.09

7.67 3.53

2.35

Baster aquifer 2.09 8.72 0.06 2.67 2.35

4.34

0.76 2.08

8.54 4.29

Surguja aquifer 3.27 8.21 0.49 1.71 1.57 0.12 1.57

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Table 3.8 Past growth trends in rural and urban population and projected growth in population in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin Total population of Mahanadi river basin in Chhattisgarh district, India Year Total Rural Urban 1971 8,556,927 7,563,825 993,102 1981 10,260,759 8,559,653 1,701,106 1991 13,127,369 10,517,411 2,609,959 2001 15,512,277 11,886,398 3,625,878 2011 19,265,136 14,233,527 5,031,609 2050 4,43,85,489 2,63,32,978 18,052,511

Annual population growth rate of Mahanadi river basin in Chhattisgarh district, India Year Total Rural Urban 1971–81 1981–91 1991–01 2001–11 2011–50

0.0183 0.0249 0.0168 0.0219

0.0124 0.0208 0.0123 0.0182 0.0155

0.0553 0.0437 0.0334 0.0333 0.0333

Source: Authors’ own estimates

3.6.1.3

Industrial Water Demand

The industrial water demand is expected to grow from 2126 MCM in 2010 to 4694.2 MCM in 2050. As per the projections, it would be 3159 MCM in 2030. Thermal power is the most important industrial sector, which demands water from the basin, accounting for nearly 90% of the total industrial water demand.

3.6.2

Future Water Balance Scenario of Chhattisgarh Part of Mahanadi Basin

To analyse the future water balance scenario for the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin, WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model was used. The WEAP configuration for the Mahanadi river basin is presented in Diagram 3.1. The model has a programme to estimate the demand for water in various sectors, a programme to estimate water supplies from various sources and a programme to estimate the network losses and return flows from demand sites and wastewater treatment plants. The model estimates water demand (at site) and water supply requirements (at the source) in various sectors and compares with water supplies from various sources, such as rivers, reservoirs and aquifers. In the WEAP configuration, a total of 16 water supply sources have been defined, which include: one main river; twelve tributaries and three groundwater supply sources. In addition, there are 40 river nodes and 31 demand sites. The demand sites are: (i) irrigation command of the six out of ten reservoirs; (ii) urban domestic water demand from seven out of ten reservoirs; (iii) industrial water demand from the Ravishankar reservoir complex, Minimata Bango reservoir, five demand sites on tributaries and two demand sites on the main river; (iv) demand for irrigation, domestic, industrial and livestock uses

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Diagram 3.1 WEAP configuration for Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin. (Source: Model configured by the Authors)

from the three defined aquifers and (v) demand for three hydro-power projects, one each on Pairi, Hasdeo and Mahanadi main river. The model also has a total of 60 network links comprising: 1 main river, 12 tributaries, 4 river diversions, 26 transmission links (representing the conveyance of water from surface and groundwater supply sources to the demand sites) and 17 demand site return links representing the return flow from irrigation and urban water use to any one of the supply sources. The configuration of WEAP system was set up for a study period beginning June 2009 and ending May 2050. The year 2010 (June 2009–May 2010) was taken as the base year, and period 2011–2050 was considered for generating scenarios (also called reference years). The observed monthly river discharge (2 time-steps per month or 24 time-steps per year) for the period 1989–2011 was used as streamflow data for the 14 gauging stations (shown as blue circles) defined on the Mahanadi river main stream and its 9 tributaries. The observed flow data for the 23-year time period (1989–2011) were allowed to repeat in the WEAP model as the simulated river flows for the future base case scenario. Observed sub-yearly streamflow data for the period 1989–2011 was also used as head flow for the rivers Hasdeo, Mand, Kelo, Kharun and Hamp. For remaining rivers, inflows in the reservoirs located near the river origin were used as their head flow. There are six scenarios we have anticipated for the basin with regard to socioeconomic changes and climate change, including a base case wherein the past trends with regard to the socio-economic changes would continue, and there will be no change in the climate. The results from the above scenarios generated by WEAP

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model vis-à-vis the water supply and water demand are presented in Table 3.9. Table 3.10 shows the estimated stream-flows upstream of the Hirakud reservoir under various scenarios. Overall, the average annual outflows over a period of 41 years (2010–50), as estimated using the WEAP model, from the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi river basin are expected to be about 22,830 MCM under base case, 22,048 MCM under high growth, 22,890 MCM under end use conservation and 25,008 MCM under climate change scenario.

3.6.2.1

The Drought Scenario

As per the WEAP modelled results, 2022–23, 2024–25, 2044–45 and 2046–47 are expected to be drought years in the Mahanadi river basin. With each drought event, the gap between required water supply and actual water supplied will accentuate further as necessary infrastructure for water storage and conveyance is inadequate. This gap is expected to be about 2251 MCM in 2046–47, almost twice that of 2022–23 (Table 3.11). Table 3.11 also shows that the outflows from the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin during a drought year will reduce substantially. During the expected drought of 2046–47, it will reduce by around 50% in comparison to long-term (2010–2050) average annual outflows from the basin (Chhattisgarh part) under a business-as-usual scenario.

3.6.3

Findings from WEAP Modelling

The modelling results suggest that even under the base case scenario (Scenario 1), there would be some gap between water demand for various consumptive uses and water supplies from the existing systems by the year 2050 (the difference between supply requirement and actual supplies). The gap is estimated to be 1801.2 MCM in 2030 and 2812.1 MCM in 2050. But there will still be a large amount of outflow from the Chhattisgarh part of the basin in that year (26,545.1 MCM) (see Table 3.10). The water shortage will mainly affect irrigation of winter crops, as per the ‘water allocation priority’ defined in the model. This is also confirmed by discussion with the farmer leaders from some of the canal command areas in Chhattisgarh. The shortage of water results in farmers in command areas and well irrigators under-irrigating the winter crops. Under a high growth scenario (Scenario 2), the gap is expected to widen to become 5004.8 MCM in 2050. As is seen from the water balance estimates, the demand-supply gap is lower in 2020 as compared to 2010 in all scenarios. This might appear unrealistic given the fact that the demand only increases with time under any scenario. Such a situation emerges merely because there is high interannual variability in water supplies from surface sources, and it is just a coincidence that the annual flows in the river and its tributaries in 2020 are much higher than that

9326.8

9326.8

8791.9

8791.9

8791.9

High growth

End use conservation

Climate change (trend analysis)

Climate change (IITM projections)

7924.4

7924.4

7924.4

7924.4

9931.6

9931.6

9858.6

10568.8

10516.1

10516.1

10436.5

11182.9

10516.1

Supply requirements

9914.5

9914.5

9470.1

10118.5

9540.3

Water supply

601.6

601.6

966.4

1064.4

975.8

Deficit (MCM)

2030

11267.3

11267.3

11188.1

12789.6

11267.3

Water demand

11906.2

11906.2

11819.8

13494.8

11906.2

Supply requirements

11007.9

10657.7

10050.8

11225.1

10,105

Water supply

898.3

1248.5

1769.0

2269.7

1801.2

Deficit (MCM)

14701.8

14701.8

14608.4

19125.8

14701.8

Demand

2050

Source: Authors’ estimates based on the WEAP model results Note: Supply requirement is the sum of the demand at site plus the conveyance/transmission losses. Supply includes supply from surface and groundwater sources

9326.8

9326.8

9931.6

8791.9

Base case

7924.4

8791.9

Scenario

9326.8

2020

Water demand

Water supply

Water demand

Supply requirements

2010

Water balance situation in the year

15,466

15,466

15364.1

20057.1

15,466

Supply requirements

13782.1

13092.8

12,591

15052.3

12653.9

Water supply

1683.9

2373.2

2773.1

5004.8

2812.1

Deficit (MCM)

Table 3.9 Overall water demand, water supply requirement and actual water supply under different scenarios in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin as estimated by the WEAP model

15139.6

448.7

564.5

23647.5

22938.8

570.8

15139.6

448.7

Source: Authors’ estimates based on the WEAP model results

Scenario Base case High growth End use conservation Climate change (trend analysis) Climate change (IITM projections)

At the main river terminal point in Chhattisgarh 21541.0 22544.3 21584.7

Estimated annual streamflow in MCM 2010 2020 At the At the main At the main river main river terminal point in river head Chhattisgarh head 448.7 15139.6 548.1 448.7 15139.6 548.1 448.7 15139.6 548.1

485.7

492.0

2030 At the main river head 448.7 448.7 448.7

32513.0

31032.8

At the main river terminal point in Chhattisgarh 31612.5 31197.9 31632.6

520.3

536.1

2050 At the main river head 448.7 448.7 448.7

Table 3.10 Streamflow under different scenarios in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin as estimated by the WEAP model

28697.4

26771.2

At the main river terminal point in Chhattisgarh 26545.1 25286.1 26564.8

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M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Table 3.11 Water balance during drought years (drought scenario) in Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin as estimated by the WEAP model Likely drought years in future 2022–23 2024–25 2044–45 2046–47

Results (all figures in MCM) Water Supply Water demand requirements supply 10310.0 10910.3 9599.3 10572.6 11183.6 9753.4 13731.4 14462.0 11952.7 14109.6 14853.5 12302.5

Estimated outflows from the Chhattisgarh part of the basin (MCM) 10968.5 9352.5 7314.1 11311.2

Source: Authors’ estimates based on the WEAP model results

of 2010, and because of lack of multi-annual storage, this would affect the demandsupply gap from year to year. However, what is important is that the overall gap between demand and supplies is only likely to increase with time as per the first three scenarios if we consider the general trends in demand for water in the basin. Under the high growth scenario, the annual outflow is estimated to be 25,286.1 MCM in 2050 (Table 3.10). The demand management interventions in agriculture (Scenario 3) will be able to reduce the demand for water in the basin to some extent, while it also reduces the supplies slightly. Such a phenomenon occurs due to reduction in return flows occurring as a result of efficiency improvement in irrigation which ultimately affects the groundwater yield. The demand-supply gap under this scenario in 2050 will be around 2773 MCM, and the reduction in deficit (demand-supply gap) as compared to the business-as-usual scenario is only 39.1 MCM. Under a scenario of climate change (Scenario 4), there would be some improvement in water supplies as compared to the base case scenario (by around 440 MCM in 2050) owing to increase in the catchment yields resulting from higher rainfall. This improvement occurs even without any change in the water production and supply infrastructure. Yet, it will not be sufficient to cover the expected gap between demand and supplies. The gap will be 2373.2 MCM. However, the outflow during 2050 will be the highest as compared to all other scenarios. Under the second climate change scenario (IITM-Climate model) (i.e. Scenario # 5), the rainfall is expected to increase by a maximum of 20% over a 40-year period. Under this scenario, the water supply potential, even with the existing infrastructure, increases to 13,782 MCM and the supply requirement would be 15,466 MCM by the year 2050. Hence, the gap in demand (supply requirement) and supplies would be 1683.9 MCM. The amount of outflow from the Chhattisgarh part of the basin just upstream of the Hirakud reservoir would be 28,697.4 MCM in the year 2050. The results of the drought scenario (Scenario 6) are presented separately in Table 14. Under this scenario of (most severe) drought, as expected to be experi-

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enced during 2024–25, the demand-supply gap will be 1430.2 MCM. For 2046–47 (another drought year), the demand-supply gap is estimated to be 2551.0 MCM. These are not huge deficits. However, the real problem will be reduced flows downstream into the Hirakud reservoir during these drought years. It is estimated to be only 9352.5 MCM in 2024–25 and 11,311.2 MCM in 2046–47, against 26545.1 MCM under the business-as-usual scenario of water balance for the year 2050. These are huge reductions. From the analysis of various scenarios, it is evident that to reduce the demandsupply gap, there is a need for augmenting the supplies through more water storage/ diversion infrastructure in Chhattisgarh. We consider the high growth scenario to be the most likely scenario for the Chhattisgarh part. The outputs show that there will be sufficient water flowing out of Chhattisgarh even in 2050 that can be harnessed for increasing the water supplies for meeting various needs, without compromising of the needs of the lower riparian state of Odisha. But, the flows in the basin are not constant. It varies from year to year. Hence, it is important to see what happens in years when the basin experiences hydrological droughts. As estimation of water balance for the drought scenario shows, the impact of such interventions on downstream flows will be very high during drought years. The estimated outflows from the basin in different years from 2010 to 2050 under three of the scenarios (one for the base case, the other two for the climate change scenarios) are given in Fig. 3.20. As is clear from Fig. 3.20, the maximum outflow will be available in different year under the climate change scenario (IITM). Therefore, stringent demand management measures from industrial sector also need to be thought about. One of them is reducing the water intensity of thermal power generation. We have not explored this scenario in the WEAP model. This would, however, be analysed separately.

Outflows in MCM

65000 55000 45000 35000 25000

15000

Base Case

Climate Change (Trend Analysis)

2050

2048

2046

2044

2042

2040

2038

2036

2034

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2016

2018

2014

2012

2010

5000

Cilmate Change (IITM Projections)

Fig. 3.20 WEAP estimated outflows from Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on the WEAP model results)

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3.7 3.7.1

M. Dinesh Kumar and N. Bassi

Strategies for Meeting Future Water Requirements Under Climate Change and Socio-Economic Processes Supply Augmentation Strategies

The region is endowed with a large number of tanks and lakes. They need to be protected and managed. One important intervention for this is protection of their catchments. What is being done today in most situations for improving management of such local water bodies is to increase the storage capacity of these water storage systems by de-silting and excavation. Contrary to this, what is required is improvement in the management of their catchments so as to maintain the runoff yield in terms of quantity and improve the quality of the runoff water (by reducing the sediment load). Watershed management of the upper catchment of these lakes is very crucial. Regeneration of indigenous species of trees in the degraded forest area needs to be encouraged, along with management of grassland. Also, drilling of new irrigation wells in the catchments of these tanks needs be regulated as it can reduce the base flows into the tanks and lakes, and also reduce the surface runoff as increased cultivation results in impounding of runoff in situ. In high rainfall years, these water bodies would work as cushion for storing a portion of the runoff, which otherwise would go un-captured into the ocean and will have some positive effect on reducing the flood flows. As we have seen earlier, in the event of climate change, the rainfall in the basin is expected to increase and this would increase the stream-flows in the Chhattisgarh part of the basin significantly. The local storages would help reduce the likely water scarcity in future resulting from growing supply-demand gap, along with producing some cushioning for floods. However, in low rainfall years, these water bodies will not be of much use. Our analysis of time-series data of point rainfall for several locations showed that there is high frequency of occurrence of severe and moderate droughts in the upper and middle parts of the basin. Analyses of observed stream-flows and rainfall-runoff models for typical catchments in the basin have clearly shown that there is high interannual variability in the runoff from the upper and middle catchments of the Mahanadi and the same is the result of high year-to-year variability in the rainfall. Hence, meteorological droughts result in hydrological droughts. Though the magnitude of water scarcity in the upper part of the basin will not be very high in such years, as shown by scenario 6 of WEAP, the big concern will be the reduction in flows downstream into the Hirakud as compared to the base case scenario, estimated to be around 15,000 MCM. Excessive wet years can result in floods, though felt in the lower parts of the basin in Odisha. The only way to deal with drought situations is to store additional water in large reservoirs and carry over for use in years of drought. This strategy is extremely essential in lieu of the fact that the water shortage will be heavily skewed towards the initial part of the rainy season. This is based on the concept of ‘multi-annual storage’ of reservoirs. This is unlike the current practice of releasing all the live storage in the

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reservoirs for use in different sectors in the same hydrological year, with no significant carry over storage. The new reservoirs being proposed will also have to take care of the water deficit in the future years (estimated to be around 5000 MCM by the year 2050), as shown by the WEAP scenarios. But, operation of the reservoirs in Chhattisgarh needs to be regulated in such a way that they do not impound water during drought years. While there are technical challenges with this way of operation, the best way to handle the situation is that the water which is impounded during such years is released downstream, and only the carry over storage from a wet year is kept in these reservoirs. This situation arises because many reservoirs are over-committed, with large command areas to be served. The water can be stored in the reservoirs during wet years, if they have extra storage capacity. The water can be released during drought years for meeting irrigation needs for paddy. The water in excess of the crop water requirement will be available for recharging the shallow aquifers. This can increase the droughtproofing capability of the region. On the other hand, increasing storage capacity of the large reservoirs would increase the flood cushioning during excessively wet years. However, operationalizing this strategy is not easy. The trouble will be when there are two or three consecutive wet years. In such situations, the reservoirs will have to be emptied prior to the arrival of incoming floods so as to avoid catastrophes (of water levels rising above maximum flood level), unless the capacity of these reservoirs is large enough to accommodate floodwaters of more than 1 year.

3.7.2

Strategies for End Use Conservation, Including Pollution Reduction

With expansion in irrigated area, the agricultural water demand would grow in future. The key measure for achieving end use conservation in the short run is to promote water-saving technologies in irrigation and water efficiency in industry. But very few crops (sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and fruits and vegetables) grown in the region are amenable to drip irrigation and mulching, in a way that adoption can result in real water saving, due to reduction in non-beneficial consumptive use and non-beneficial non-consumptive use of water.2 One could expect some diversification happening in the cropping pattern in the next couple of decades, with greater proportion of area under cash crops such as cotton, groundnut, sugarcane and fruits and vegetables. The major fruit crop grown in the region is berry. Similarly, drip system can be adopted for vegetable crops such as brinjal, tomatoes and chilli. To increase the extent of (real) water saving, mulching can be adopted in combination with drips.

2 Please see Seckler (1996) and Perry (2007) for understanding real water saving in irrigated crop production.

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From the perspective of climate resilience in the wake of increase in temperature, mulching can be very effective as it can fully prevent soil evaporation (converting the non-beneficial evaporation into beneficial transpiration) and therefore moisture loss. However, water saving per unit of land can also result in farmers expanding the area under irrigation, with the result that at the aggregate level, water consumption will not reduce. This is known as ‘rebound effect’, and we consider it as the longterm impact. Studies from other parts of the world have shown that ‘rebound effect’ is common with the adoption of water-saving technologies in agriculture (Sanchis-Ibor et al. 2015; Ward and Pulido-Velazquez 2008), most important of which is availability of arable land for expansion of irrigated area (Molle et al. 2004; Kumar et al. 2008). In the Chhattisgarh part of the basin, amount of land under cultivation during the winter season is much smaller in comparison to that during autumn season. Therefore, it is quite likely that with water saving per unit area, the farmers expand the area under the crop. Hence, water allocation to irrigation will have to be rationed in volumetric terms so as to create incentive for efficient use of the supplied water and to achieve actual reduction in water demand (Kumar and van Dam 2013). Water pricing will have to be introduced to ensure that all the users are confronted with opportunity cost of using water at all times, and the agency which allocates water recovers the resource fee and cost of its provisioning (Shen and Wu 2017). Or else, it is quite likely that, at times, there is over-allocation of water; people resort to inefficient uses as they would not incur high cost of using it. However, the unit prices will have to vary across sectors depending on the ability to pay. Since water use efficiency in economic terms is generally much higher in industrial use as compared to irrigation, the latter being a low-value use, the industrial sector will be able to pay a much higher price for water as compared to farmers. Further, the volumetric price of water can keep varying depending on the annual flows in the basin, with higher unit charges during drought years, as the average economic value of water use would be much higher during droughts. However, in the case of groundwater, the price should include only the resource fee, as the cost of production and supply of water is borne by the well owners. The few empirical studies which analysed the impact of volumetric water rationing and water pricing in agricultural groundwater use showed that higher price for water can lead to reduction in irrigation demand, with no adverse effect on the economic viability of farming (Kumar et al. 2011; Kumar et al. 2013).

3.7.3

Improving Water Use Efficiency in Thermal Power Production

Industrial water consumption is very high in Chhattisgarh. Among various industries, thermal power production and steel and power consume the largest amount of water. Many of the power plants in Chhattisgarh are quite old and use processes that

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are not so water efficient. Annexure 3 provides detailed discussion on the types of consumptive water uses in a typical thermal power plant, the factors governing water uses and the water use intensity and cost implications of different process types. We anticipate a saving to the tune of 1.0 m3 of water per mega-watt hour of electricity produced from coal-based thermal power plants by the year 2030 and 2050, with water intensity of power generation dropping from 3.5 m3 to 2.5 m3 per mega-watt hour of electricity produced. This can lead to a total saving of around 525 MCM of water per annum, if all the installed capacity (59,000 MW) gets operational. One way to encourage industries to aggressively pursue water use efficiency plans in the thermal power sector is to raise volumetric water charges to such an extent that the marginal cost of using a unit volume of water is more than the cost of revamping the plants for reducing water intensity of thermal power generation.

3.8 3.8.1

Adapting to Climate Variability and Change Addressing Projected Future Demands Given Climate Change

Under climate change scenario, the basin is expected to yield much more water than at present, but the inter-annual variability in stream-flows will be more. During the wet years in future, there will be more runoff as compared to such years in the past. The problem will be during drought years as runoff from the catchments falls sharply. While agricultural system will automatically get adjusted to suit the available water in the reservoirs, rivers and aquifers, it will be difficult to manage water supplies for thermal power plants and water supplies for livestock, and rural and urban domestic sectors. Hence, the challenge will be of building more water storage infrastructure not only for providing multi-annual storage of water available during wet years for use during years of droughts, but also for ensuring additional supplies of water for meeting the growing demand for water from different sectors in normal years. The local tanks and ponds also need to be rejuvenated so that they provide some cushioning. The buffer storage of water from the large reservoirs can be released for high priority uses such as rural domestic and municipal uses during droughts, when the wells dry up. Also, it will be advisable to release some water from the large storages downstream into the rivers and tributaries as it will help protect the in-stream uses of water (fisheries, bathing and washing) and subsistence farming based on river lifting. As regards groundwater, the hard rock aquifers of the region do not provide much space for buffer storage of the additional infiltration that occurs during wet years. However, the situation slightly improves, if a wet year was followed by a drought year. Nevertheless, the aquifer systems as such do not have groundwater stock that would be available as buffer for use in drought years, when the recharge reduces.

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Hence, groundwater in the region cannot provide drought resilience. Therefore, it is all the more important that more surface water storages with multi-annual storage facility are developed in the region to provide climate resilience.

3.8.2

Coping with Extreme Events

An important intervention for climate resilience during drought years will have to come from water demand reduction in the agricultural sector. Volumetric rationing of water supply is the most effective measure for this as it will promote water use efficiency improvements (Kumar and van Dam 2013; Perry 2007). Since surface water is the major source of water supply for agriculture, the Water Resources Department can ration water allocation to the command areas in drought years, followed by volumetric pricing of water. This will encourage farmers to grow crops that are less water intensive and economically more efficient during drought years, as field evidence from other parts of the country had shown. Rationing will also encourage them to use practices such as plastic mulching to control soil evaporation from the irrigated fields. It is important to remember that during droughts, as the marginal return from the use of water would be very high, pricing alone will not be sufficient to bring about demand reduction and therefore more stringent measures like supply rationing would be necessary.

References CGWB. (2012). Aquifer Systems of Chhattisgarh. Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), North Central Chhattisgarh Region, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India. CPCB. (2012). Status of water quality in India 2012. New Delhi: Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), Ministry of Environment and Forests. CPCB. (2015). Water quality of rivers at interstate borders. New Delhi: Interstate River Border Monitoring Programme, Central Pollution Control Board. CWC & NRSC. (2014). Mahanadi Basin Report 2.0. New Delhi and Hyderabad: Central Water Commission (CWC), Ministry of Water Resources and National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC), Department of Space, Government of India. Kumar, M. D., & van Dam, J. C. (2013). Drivers of change in agricultural water productivity and its improvement at basin scale in developing economies. Water International, 38(3), 312–325. Kumar, M. D., Turral, H., Sharma, B. R., Amarasinghe, U., & Singh, OP. (2008). Water saving and yield enhancing micro irrigation technologies in India: When do they become best bet technologies?. In: M. D. Kumar (Ed.), Managing water in the face of growing scarcity, inequity and declining returns: Exploring fresh approaches. Volume 1, proceedings of the 7th Annual Partners’ Meet of IWMI-Tata Water Policy Research program, ICRISAT, Hyderabad. Kumar, M. D., Scott, C. A., & Singh, O. P. (2011). Inducing the shift from flat-rate or free agricultural power to metered supply: Implications for groundwater depletion and power sector viability in India. Journal of Hydrology, 409(1–2), 382–394.

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Kumar, M. D., Scott, C. A., & Singh, O. P. (2013). Can India raise agricultural productivity while reducing groundwater and energy use? International Journal of Water Resources Development, 29(4), 557–573. Molle, F., Mamanpoush, A., & Miranzadeh, M. (2004). Robbing Yadullah’s water to irrigate Saeid’s garden: Hydrology and water rights in a village of Central Iran (Vol. 80). Colombo: IWMI. NEERI (National Environmental Engineering Research Institute). (2005). Study on surveillance of drinking water quality in selected cities/towns in India, Vol. II: City Appraisals. Prepared for Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization, Nagpur, June. Perry, C. (2007). Efficient irrigation; inefficient communication; flawed recommendations. Irrigation and Drainage: The journal of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage, 56(4), 367–378. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.323. Sanchis-Ibor, C., Macian-Sorribes, H., García-Mollá, M., & Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2015, October). Effects of drip irrigation on water consumption at basin scale (Mijares river, Spain). In: 26th Euro-Mediterranean regional conference and workshops on ‘innovate to improve irrigation performances’, Montpellier, France (pp. 12–15). Seckler, D. W. (1996). The new era of water resources management: From “dry” to “wet” water savings (Vol. 1). Colombo: International Irrigation Management Institute. Shen, D., & Wu, J. (2017). State of the art review: Water pricing reform in China. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 33(2), 198–232. Ward, F. A., & Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2008). Water conservation in irrigation can increase water use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(47), 18215–18220.

M. Dinesh Kumar did his B-Tech in Civil Engineering in 1988, M. E. in Water Resources Management in 1991 and Ph. D in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF; international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (US), and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala). He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters, and many journal articles. He has published in many international peerreviewed journals viz., Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Management, Int. Journal of WRD and Water Economics and Policy. He is currently also Associate Editor of Water Policy and Member of the Editorial Board of Int. Journal of WRD. His research works of global relevance are: integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water & food security challenges; climate risk in WASH; and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. Nitin Bassi is a Natural Resource Management specialist (M. Phil) having nearly 15 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy, and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a Principal Researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include River Basin and Catchment Assessment, Water Accounting, Institutional and Policy Analysis in Irrigation and Water Supply Management, Water Quality Analysis, Climate Variability, and Climate-induced Water Risk Analysis and Wetland Management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in projects, research studies, and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT, and SDTT.

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He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD & GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge UK, and has several book chapters, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal of Water Resources Development; Journal of Hydrology; and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.

Chapter 4

Managing Climate-Induced Water Risks: A Case Study of Institutional Alternatives M. Dinesh Kumar and Nitin Bassi

Abstract This chapter analyses the institutional set up for water management in the Mahanadi river basin against the backdrop of current water uses in irrigation, industrial and domestic sectors and management challenges in the basin. The analysis is done for its effectiveness in ensuring sustainable water use, including resolving water conflicts between sectors and between states. A framework for analysing the effectiveness of water institutions as proposed by Saleth and Dinar (The institutional economics of water: a cross-country analysis of institutions and performance. The World Bank, 2004) and the institutional design principles for sound water resources management as proposed by Frederiksen (Institutional principles for sound management of water and related environmental resources. In: Asit K. Biwas (ed) Water resources: environmental planning, management, and development. McGraw-Hill company, 1997) are used for analysing the impact of institutional and policy framework related to water use and management. Based on the current water management challenges and the additional challenges that the basin is expected to face in future, institutional alternatives for water management are proposed. Keywords Institutional analysis · Water management challenges · Water conflicts · Water governance · Institutional alternatives

M. Dinesh Kumar (*) Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India e-mail: [email protected] N. Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_4

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Introduction

Several water management initiatives in the past had failed either due to absence of appropriate institutional structures for their implementation or due to poor design of the institutions created to implement them (Hunter District Water Board 1982). Following sound design principles is extremely crucial to setting up effective institutions for water management (Frederiksen 1997). Such design principles should be based on the fundamental goal of achieving the ultimate goals of creating transparency and accountability within the system and incentives for the staff to perform. Along with following design principles (Frederiksen 1997), it is important to make sure that the newly created institution doesn’t exist in a vacuum in the sense that there are favourable legal and policy frameworks and administrative set up that support the institution by providing it the legitimacy and the necessary financial, institutional and human resource capabilities (Kumar 2000, 2010; Saleth 1996; Saleth and Dinar 2004). In the previous chapter, we have discussed the water resources management (WRM) issues and challenges in the Mahanadi river basin, particularly those posed by climate variability and climate change. We analysed the long-term changes in the basin hydrology and drew implications for the sustainability of irrigation systems and drinking water sources in the basin. The current water uses in irrigation, industrial and rural and urban domestic water supply sectors were also evaluated against the potential supplies from the existing water systems. Using a proper water balance study of the basin for the present and for the future, viable water management interventions that would help address the stresses induced by climate extremes, especially droughts, were identified. While some of those solutions require altering the natural water system to change the water supply conditions for the basin water users, some of them require affecting behavioural changes for improving the efficiency of water use. The latter require institutional interventions. The institutional reforms for the future, which involve reorienting the existing institutions and establishment of new institutions, calls for understanding the current institutional set up in the water resources management sector; the technical, managerial, institutional and financial capabilities of these institutions; the way these institutions collect and analyse data on water resources; undertake resource evaluation and planning and the strategies being adopted by them for water resources management. The second section of the chapter discusses the present practice of water resource evaluation, planning and management, particularly how far climate change issues and adaptation strategies are integrated in water resource management decisionmaking. The third section discusses the current institutional set up for water resources management in Chhattisgarh part of the basin, the water resources development and management policies, and presents an analysis of the existing knowledge gaps in the water resources management sector. The fourth section discusses the institutional alternatives, and legal and policy regimes for affecting improved

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water resources management in the basin that is capable of adapting to climate variability and change. In the fifth section, we provide certain conclusions.

4.2 4.2.1

Present Practice of Water Resources Evaluation, Planning and Management Data Collection and Analysis

Collection of hydrological data is critical for sound water resources assessment and planning. The type of data to be collected should depend on the characteristics of the hydrological system—which components are dominant and which components are not. The density of observation (like number of rain-gauging stations in a catchment, number of stream gauges in a river system, etc.) should depend on the spatial variations in rainfall, climate, catchment characteristics, aquifer characteristics, etc. Hydrological data collection is carried out by both state and central agencies in Chhattisgarh. In the case of surface water, the State Water Resources Department undertakes gauging of important rivers for stream discharge, sediment transport and rainfall in the catchment. The State Water Resources Department also collects data on daily rainfall. Some rain-gauging stations are also maintained by the forest department, agricultural department and the revenue department. There are 138 rain-gauging stations in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin, maintained by the State Water Resources Department. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gathers daily rainfall data collected from the State Water Resources Department from selected gauging stations and validate them. There are 43 IMD rain-gauging stations in Chhattisgarh, with 17 in the upper Mahanadi and 26 in the lower Mahanadi basins. The Central Water Commission (CWC) is responsible for river gauging in all the important river basins of India, including the Mahanadi, for measurements of daily discharge, sediment transport and water quality. While the CWC identifies the location for river gauging, the State Water Resources Department maintains these gauging stations. The data from selected gauging stations are gathered by the Central agency, validated and published. The details of the types and numbers of gauging stations are given in Table 4.1. In addition to these stations, the State Water Data Centre of the State Water Resources Department has begun to maintain several new gauging stations under the hydrology project. The details are given in Table 4.2. In the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi alone, there are 33 gauging stations which record gauge and discharge data for the streams/rivers. For seven of these stations, river water quality data is also collected. There are 18 rain-gauging stations and 2 weather stations, maintained by the State Water Data Centre. Data on weather parameters, viz. sunshine hours, relative humidity (morning and evening), temperature (min and maximum), wind

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Table 4.1 Gauging stations maintained by the central agencies in the Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin River sub-basin Type 1. Hydrological observation sites Mahanadi-upper Gauge (G) Gauge and discharge (GD) Gauge, discharge and water quality (GDQ) Gauge, discharge, sediment and water quality (GDSQ) Rainfall Mahanadi-middle (Chhattis- Gauge (G) garh part) Gauge and discharge (GD) Gauge, discharge and water quality (GDQ) Gauge, discharge, sediment and water quality (GDSQ) Rainfall 2. Groundwater observation wells Mahanadi-upper – Mahanadi-middle (Chhattis- – garh part) 3. Meteorological stations Mahanadi-upper CWC observation stations IMD stations Mahanadi-middle (includCWC observation stations ing some parts of Odisha) IMD stations ISRO AWS stations

Number

Maintained by

0 1 1

CWC

4 2 6 2 0

North central regional Office of CGWB

7 2 296 296

CGWB

8 17 21 26 5

CWC IMD CWC IMD ISRO

Source: Central Water Commission 2014

speed and wind directions, are collected from these designated weather stations on a daily basis. As regards groundwater, the primary data being collected are depth to water levels in observation wells and groundwater quality (TDS, fluoride, nitrates, chlorides and pH). The regional offices of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) are responsible for monitoring groundwater levels. As per the report published by CGWB, there are 592 observation wells maintained by the North Central Regional Office of CGWB in the Mahanadi basin. However, as per the report from the State Water Data Centre, there are around 900 observation wells maintained by CGWB in the basin. The data on water levels and water quality are collected from open wells and piezometers. As regards water quality, the State Pollution Control Boards of Chhattisgarh and Orissa are doing the water quality monitoring of the River Mahanadi and its several tributaries at 48 locations in the basin. The ranges of water quality observed in the River Mahanadi and its tributary streams, viz. Seonath, Kharoon, Hasdeo, Arpa,

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Table 4.2 Gauging stations maintained by the state agencies in the Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin River basin Type 1. Hydrological observation sites Part of MahaGauge and discharge nadi basin in (GD) Chhattisgarh Gauge, discharge and water quality (GDQ) Rainfall stations (Standard) Rainfall station (Automatic) Weather station 2. Groundwater Observation wells Part of MahaIncluding observanadi basin in tions dug wells and Chhattisgarh piezometers 3. Meteorological stations Part of MahaRainfall stations outnadi basin in side HP Chhattisgarh

Number

Maintained by

33

State water data centre (Hydrology project), Chhattisgarh

7 27 18 2 Around 900 (needs to be confirmed at the state level)

North central regional office of CGWB

138

Water resources department and other departments, Chhattisgarh

Source: Water Resources Department, Chhattisgarh

Kelo, Ib, Kuakhai, Daya, Kathajodi, Sankha, Tel and Birupa, with respect to Temperature, pH, DO, Conductivity, BOD, Nitrate +Nitrite, Total Coliform (TC) and Faecal Coliform (FC) are presented as minimum, maximum and mean value to assess the extent of water quality variation throughout the year (CPCB 2012). However, at times, the state governments present water quality data in such a way that only the average figures for the whole of the year are presented and in the extreme values, which exceed the permissible limits, are hidden. Generally, the pollution concentration goes up during summer months, when the natural flows in the river are at the lowest, and drops significantly during the peak monsoon season.

4.2.2

Methodology for Resource Evaluation

4.2.2.1

Surface Water

As regards surface water, the last time basin-wide assessment of surface water resources done was in 1991 by the Central Water Commission. The assessment was based on historical data of total annual observed flows normally at the drainage outlet of the basin plus the effective diversion of water from the rivers and its tributaries added to it. The assessment of surface water potential is done for 75% probability of exceedance and mean annual flow. Also, the assessment includes estimation of utilizable surface water potential, which takes into consideration the

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topography and the presence of suitable sites for building reservoirs for impounding the water. These estimates of surface water potential are not revised on the basis of the recent time series data on stream-flows in the basins. It is quite likely that the basin hydrology has changed for many of the basins in the state owing to significant changes in land use, particularly changes in forest cover and area under cultivated crops, and groundwater abstraction. Changes in basin hydrology can also occur due to changes in temperature and rainfall, as a result of climate change. While the impact of land use changes (changes in forest cover and cultivated crops) could be in terms of rate of runoff generation (runoff coefficient), the impact of climate change will be in terms of both the amount of rainfall and the runoff coefficient. Higher temperature can cause increased absorption of the incident precipitation for the same amount of rainfall and vice versa, affecting runoff rates. However, there are no studies commissioned by the CWC either for assessing the resource availability in the basins of Chhattisgarh or for evaluating the impact of land use change and climate changes on surface water resources. Analysing the impact of land use change on runoff is particularly more important in view of the fact that the reduction in runoff in river basins can be falsely attributed to climate change. There were recent initiatives to reassess surface water potential of major river basins of India, undertaken by the CWC in technical collaboration with the National Remote Sensing Agency. A reassessment of surface water potential was done for Godavari river basin. The ongoing assessment for the rest of the basins includes the Mahanadi river basin. The study uses water balance approach (to estimate the surface runoff generated in the basin from the total precipitation, evaporation and evapotranspiration) using remote sensing data on land use and land cover and compares it with the historical flows for calibration of the computation model for various input variables.

4.2.2.2

Groundwater

As regards groundwater, the resource assessment is carried out by both the state groundwater department and Central Ground Water Board. The state groundwater department does assessment at the block level, whereas the central agency carries out the assessment at the district level. The assessment involves estimation of groundwater recharge during monsoon and non-monsoon periods and abstraction, to arrive at the stage of groundwater development in a given assessment unit. The recharge estimation is based on water level fluctuation approach, which takes into account the change in water level in the observation wells during monsoon and the specific yield of the aquifer to arrive at the quantum of recharge during monsoon. The estimation of recharge during the non-monsoon period is arbitrary and uses certain norms for quantifying recharge from different types of sources. For basins such as the Mahanadi which have large number of wetlands having water almost throughout the year, it is important that these estimates are made more scientifically.

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The methodology does not seem to quantify the other components of groundwater balance, which decide the net groundwater storage change over the hydrological year, such as lateral flow of groundwater within the assessment unit owing to groundwater level gradients, and groundwater discharge into natural streams (base flow) using systematic approach. The analysis presented in Chap. 3 has shown that the actual lean season flows, which is nothing but the natural groundwater discharge during the lean season, is much higher than what the official estimates considered. These components of water balance are also quite significant for hilly regions, as our earlier analysis has shown. The methodology is still not robust enough to get a realistic assessment of groundwater resource dynamic.

4.2.3

Strategies for Water Resources Management

Chhattisgarh is a hill state, with dominant tribal population, forming the upper catchment of many important river basins, including the Narmada and Mahanadi. The history of water resources development in the state is not very old. In the recent past, several new river valley projects were taken up in the state, for irrigation development. Water resources management in the state focuses primarily on development of new sources of water for meeting irrigation, drinking water supply and industrial needs, as the catchments of rivers originating from the state receive very high rainfall and surface water resources are relatively abundant. In the recent past, development of groundwater resources has also picked up in Chhattisgarh state, with farmers digging open wells for irrigation. Hence, water resources management is now mostly based on augmentation of supplies to meet the demand through development of surface and groundwater resources. Yet, only a small percentage of the area in the state is irrigated. Unlike states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, use of micro-irrigation technologies in agriculture to improve water use efficiency has not received much attention in Chhattisgarh. One primary reason for this is that the state is not water scarce, and there is sufficient amount of water in the basins of the state, which is under-utilized and there is still scope for augmenting the supplies. Given the hilly and undulating topography, high annual rainfall and a land use characterized by large area under forests and large proportion of the cropped area under rain-fed conditions, Chhattisgarh state has also received given priority to watershed development and management. The State of Chhattisgarh had constituted a State Watershed Management Agency, which implements the Integrated Watershed Management Project (IWDP). The hilly and undulating topography of the region and the high rate of surface runoff suggest that soil erosion would be a problem that needs to be tackled through watershed management interventions such as contour bunds, check dams and gully plugs. However, this will help improve the yield of rain-fed crops grown during the kharif season only, and this alone will not be sufficient for raising agricultural productivity in a major way.

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The farmers in the region generally take only one (kharif) crop using the soil moisture available from the precipitation, due to the wide gap between available moisture from precipitation and crop water requirement for the second crop. For raising the second crop, irrigation input is required. The watershed management interventions will not be sufficient to improve the access of the farmers to irrigation water in the hilly and undulating terrains, though the basic assumption is that they would augment groundwater recharge. Analysis of groundwater data for the observation wells in the upper and middle basin areas of the Mahanadi basin shows that water table in wells rises up to the surface after monsoon due to natural recharge. Due to poor storage potential of the hard rock aquifers, part of the infiltrating water goes out of the system as base flow. This means that artificial recharge structures may not be effective in augmenting the utilizable groundwater recharge. The state has to depend on water impoundment and diversion systems for effective utilization of the runoff water, which is currently abundant. Watershed management indirectly promotes groundwater intensive use, as farmers in the treated areas, after seeing the immediate effect of the interventions in terms of rise in water levels in wells, go for drilling more wells. Groundwater recharge is promoted within the catchment under watershed management as a ‘positive value’ with the assumption that it would increase the base flows, thereby making streams flowing in the lower catchment perennial (James et al. 2015). But attention needs to be paid to the fact that this activity will be generally followed by indiscriminate drilling of wells by farmers in the area, which can ultimately lead to increased draft, threatening even the existing natural discharge of groundwater into streams and wetlands (James et al. 2015; Talati et al. 2005). This is called the wicket problems in watershed management. As regards water use efficiency, the focus is on agriculture. However, the concept of WUE is based on the notion of efficient supply of water from the reservoir and use of water in the field. It treats water lost in conveyance and water applied in the field in excess of the crop water requirement as permanent losses; it considers the crop consumptive use in the field directly irrigated against the total amount of water supplied from the main source. As a result, the strategies and interventions for improving water use efficiency look at ways to reduce losses in conveyance canals and field application. Going by the State’s approach paper for preparation of 12th Plan document, it appears that there is a great deal of emphasis given to rehabilitation of canals to reduce wastage of water in seepage and transfer of management functions of irrigation systems to the Water User Associations to improve quality of irrigation (adequacy, reliability, control over water delivery) and equity in water allocation. The solutions proposed to improve water use efficiency are based on the notion that by enhancing the (field level) efficiency in public irrigation schemes, the current gap between potential created and potential utilized can be minimized. But the fact remains that, given the topographical conditions that exist in the state, the poor field level efficiency especially in irrigated paddy results in the excess water (applied in the field), and the seepage from the canals is available downstream in drainage channels/streams and shallow aquifers being available for reuse. Hence, such measures to improve water use efficiency may not result in any significant

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increase in potential utilized. The concept of system-wide and basin-wide efficiency in water use needs to be introduced in the case of agricultural water use in order for the intervention to make good economic sense.

4.2.4

Climate Change Issues in Chhattisgarh with Particular Reference to Mahanadi Basin

Two important climate variables which can significantly impact on water resources, through alterations in runoff and recharge and soil moisture storage and demand for water, are rainfall and evapotranspiration. A mere increase in magnitude of rainfall can increase runoff from a catchment. For the same magnitude of rainfall, increase in intensity with no major change in the duration of dry spells can also increase runoff (depending on the value of soil infiltration capacity in relation to the intensity of rains), whereas the same can adversely affect the amount of recharge. An increase in temperature, combined with reduced vapour pressure, can increase evapotranspiration, pushing the crop water requirements up. Increase in temperature and reduced humidity can also increase the rate of depletion of soil moisture, reducing the runoff and groundwater recharge rates. A systematic analysis of the implications of change in climate variables on water resources management in the basin would require analysis of all these parameters on a time horizon. However, long-term data were available only for rainfall and the data on other weather parameters were available only for seven years, and that limited to two locations. Hence, analysis of climate data was limited to analysis of long-term trends in rainfall. Detailed analyses were carried out with the total magnitude of annual rainfall, annual rainy days and dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon were considered.1 The analysis did show some long-term changes in the rainfall and rainy days, and frequent occurrence of very wet and very dry years. Frequency analysis was carried out for the estimated values of standard precipitation index (SPI) for select locations in the basin, and probability of non-exceedance was estimated for rainfalls corresponding to different SPI values. It was seen that the probability of occurrence of rainfall below the mean value (or rainfall with SPI value less than 0.0) is in the range of 55–58%. This means, there is greater probability of occurrence of a year being a drought year than being a wet year. Analysis of long-term trends in rainfall of seven locations in the basin shows increase in rainfall in four locations and decrease

1 The types of analysis included the following: estimation of coefficient of variation in the rainfall and rainy days, which is indicative of inter-annual variability, using historical data; estimation of long-term trends in rainfall and rainy days using Mann-Kendall analysis to understand the nature of trend, the slope and the significance; estimation of standard precipitation index (SPI) values for the gauging stations to assess the frequency of occurrence of droughts of different magnitudes, and probability of occurrence of droughts and wet years of different intensities; long-term changes in the date of onset and withdrawal of monsoon and the relationship between rainfall and the pattern of occurrence of rains (in terms of rainy days).

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in rainfall in some others. As per the trend analysis of historical data, average annual rainfall change is expected to be in the range of 6.2–7.1 mm. The corresponding change in average annual runoff will be in the range of 4.3E-05–0.000114 cumec/ sq. km in future in different catchments. In the case of rainy days, six showed decrease in number of rainy days and one showed increase. Further analysis showed that there exists a linear relationship between the magnitude of annual rainfall and number of rainy days. The estimated average annual increase in runoff owing to expected long-term change in rainfall (as predicted by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology under A2 B2 scenario) of 6 mm per year in Chhattisgarh part of the basin is 0.003 MCM per sq. km. In a span of 40 years, this would accumulate to contribute a runoff increase of 0.12 MCM per sq. km.

4.2.5

Current Practices of Considering Climate Change Issues and Adaptation Strategies in Water Resources Management

At the time of carrying out the study, comprehensive analysis of climate-related data was not available in Chhattisgarh to gain insights into past climate trends in the state, with particular reference to rainfall, temperature and humidity. The only analysis of long-term trend in rainfall is available from Raipur agricultural university, which had presented data from two gauging stations for the entire basin. However, a State Action Plan on Climate Change exists since 2013, and water is one of the sectors dealt with in the Plan. As per the climate change action plan for water, prescribed in the document State Action Plan on Climate Change (GoC 2013), the state plans to increase the irrigation potential to 64% of the net sown area. The state has drawn a 25-year master plan covering all five major river basins to increase the irrigation potential (GoC 2013: p. 63). The document talks about integrated development of surface and groundwater resources, with emphasis on M & M schemes, minor schemes and groundwater development so as to realize the optimum irrigation potential. The document says in the 12th plan period, ‘It (the state) will work on an integrated river basin management plan beginning with aquifer-mapping for watershed development and improved water use efficiency, and also integrate ground water recharge plans with water usage’. Another point suggested in the action plan is to improve water use efficiency in agriculture by moving from floodirrigation to precision farming. The plan document also talks about creation of a State-level Water Resource Regulatory Authority to develop a groundwater draft policy, ensure protection of groundwater quality and to promote conjunctive use of surface and groundwater.

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The document mentions about integrated development of surface water and groundwater resources for optimum irrigation development, though it doesn’t mention why it is relevant in the context of the state’s river basins and how the concept of integrated development is to be operationalized. The fact which emerges from our analysis is that years of extreme droughts and years of excessively high rainfall are common in the basin. Hence, integrated surface and groundwater management should help deal with extremely low flows that cause severe hydrological droughts in the entire basin and excess flows that cause floods in the lower Mahanadi. However, there are no specific suggestions made in the report on the ways to deal with extreme hydrological events through IWRM approach. The document doesn’t mention about the hydraulic interdependence between surface water and groundwater in the river basins (mainly the Mahanadi and Godavari), which result in the lean season flows in the rivers, and how these considerations put limits on the extent of groundwater withdrawal in the undulating areas. It uses the simplistic estimates of groundwater development (based on annual recharge and abstraction) to argue that there is scope for further development of the resource. It also doesn’t state its implications for measures to improve groundwater recharge and water use efficiency in irrigation. The document also does not consider the scale effects in hydrology and how that put limits on improving water use efficiency in agriculture through on-farm water use efficiency measures. It is also not clear from the document, whether the proposals to go for precision farming as a strategy to adapt to climate change are based on any real analysis of the hydrological regimes and the socio-economic systems in the basins of the state. For instance, paddy, which dominates the cropping system of the state, is not amenable to any water-saving irrigation device. The document clearly mentions that no studies are available in the state to analyse the impact of climate state on the hydrology and water resources. Nevertheless, the ongoing plans to augment the irrigation potential in the state through building of major and medium and minor (surface) irrigation schemes based on large reservoirs would be crucial in enhancing the resilience of the communities to increased risks associated with climate variability and change. This is because the augmented surface storage could reduce their vulnerability to droughts. Further, there are plans to develop a comprehensive database on water resources of various river basins (GoC 2013). Such database once generated can enable the following: (1) future modelling studies for realistic basin-wide assessment of water resources; (2) analysis of the climate trends in different climate zones (semi-arid, sub-humid, etc.) and (3) analysis of the impact of climate variability and change on water resources, particularly the impact on surface runoff and groundwater recharge.

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Current Institutional Set Up and Policies in the Water Resources Management Sector in Chhattisgarh Various Line Agencies in the Water Resources Sector of Chhattisgarh and Their Technical and Institutional Capacities

The most important agency concerned with water resources development and management in Chhattisgarh is the Department of Water Resources. The second most important agency in terms of outreach is the Public Health Engineering Department of Chhattisgarh. The main functions of the water resources department (WRD) are as follows: Assess the water resources in the state; frame policy for making general plan for the complete water sector; issue guidelines for optimum development water; bring uniformity in development of water resources and to prepare plans for use of water resources with the help of research and technology; make policy and obtain resources for irrigation and drainage work for irrigation and command area development; make policy for integrated and planned use of groundwater and surface water resources for irrigation and other uses; perform surveys and investigation and prepare designs and detailed reports for projects; construction, operation and maintenance of major, medium, minor projects, lift and tube well irrigation schemes; design and construction of flood control projects; quality control and testing of construction material; maintain and review the functionality of irrigation systems and take actions to improve the irrigation potential and collect and update the Hydrological data and use them in planning of projects. Since 2000–01, the agency’s investment for water resources investigation, planning, design and execution has steadily gone up. In 2000–01, the total expenditure on water resources development (including plan and non-plan expenditure) was 84.89 crore rupees, whereas it went up to 1950.82 crore rupees in 2013–14. The actual budgetary allocation was 111.57 crore rupees in 2000–01 and 2511.05 crore rupees in 2013–14. If we consider the investment at constant prices (with an inflation rate of 9% per annum), the investment in water resources development projects had gone up by 650% in real terms over a period of 13 years since the creation of the State. This is an impressive growth in investment. The irrigation potential created has gone up from 1.92 m. ha in 2000 to 3.0 m. ha in 2011. The actual utilization of the created potential was only 0.11 m. ha in 2000 and this stood at 0.61 m. ha in 2011. In the year 2006, the utilization of the potential was highest (37.96%), with the actual irrigated area touching 1.09 m. ha, against a potential of 2.87 m. ha. Though not a useful indicator for analysing the performance of the irrigation sector, the gap between the ‘potential created’ and ‘potential utilized’ has actually gone up during the 11 years. The growing gap might simply be a reflection of the fact that many of the recent projects are not yet completed in every respect. However, the revenue generated from irrigation and other services (water supply to municipalities and corporations, bulk water supply to industry and

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water to state electricity board (CSEB) and other services) has also gone up, from 57.36 crore rupees in 2002–03 to 806.65 crore rupees in 2013–14. A large proportion of the revenue is from industrial water supply. However, as is evident from the above description of the functions, the water resources department appears to be performing multiple functions—from survey and investigation to water resource planning to water resources development (surface and groundwater) to water allocation and water management. As discussed by Kumar (2006), a single agency performing multiple functions in water resources reduces the institutional effectiveness of the agency if it has to perform optimally. For instance, the agency which does resources assessment also carries out planning and execution of irrigation development projects. This can create ‘conflict of interest’ situation and can give some incentive to the agency for over-estimation of the resource potential. Also, the same agency performing irrigation and flood control functions can be conflicting, as attempts to keep water in the reservoirs for economic uses during summer months can reduce the flood cushioning of reservoirs. While a situation of the same agency responsible for development of both surface water and groundwater can be good for integrated planning, achieving water resources development as an objective function can be at the cost of resource management, as the agency’s attempt to maximize its revenue from irrigation and water supply services to industries, electricity board and the urban local bodies can lead to problems such as reduced ecological flows, etc. As a matter of fact, over time, the WRD tends to allocate more water to industries, as revenue becomes an important consideration in water allocation. In 2000–01, the revenue from water supplied to agriculture was 15.5% of the total revenue, whereas it went down to a mere 1.80% of the total revenue in 2013–14. The reservoir operation rules followed to honour such allocation decisions can be often at the cost of flood control benefits. Another important issue is the sectoral approach. While the water resources department looks at irrigation and flood control issues along with resource assessment, there is a separate agency for managing drinking water supplies in rural areas. The Public Health Engineering Department of Chhattisgarh looks after drinking water supply provision for rural areas, while the municipalities and corporations purchase water of large and medium reservoirs from water resources department. According to the official statistics, the coverage of rural water supply schemes is 99.7% in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin. The district-wise statistics of total number of habitations covered by different types of schemes are provided in Table 4.3. However, a detailed analysis shows that 98.6% of the habitations are covered by drinking water supply schemes based on groundwater (55,301 out of the 56,043). These groundwater-based sources provide unreliable supplies, in lieu of the fact that the water levels decline fast after the monsoon in the hard rock aquifers that are being tapped (source: based on our own analysis provided in this report), drying up the wells, bore wells and hand pumps. Here again, the open wells and hand pumps dominate, accounting for 68.4% of the groundwater-based schemes. The rural communities have to go to the source and fetch water. There are only 7812 habitations covered by piped water supply schemes based on groundwater (5632 nos.), and this water is untreated for chemical quality

3518 1363 2101 2614 1450 2324 4263 4526 2572 1263 37,802

8860 2744 7212 8565 4026 6119 10,703 28,672 11,885 2657 136,544

686 220 361 400 257 824 673 1136 339 170 7812

326 191 274 142 126 397 432 848 547 54 5632

778 730 987 2071 332 250 3491 3670 768 48 16,714

702 501 575 982 274 266 1687 1677 459 44 9687

Other tube wells No of No of habitation schemes covered 113 75 132 108 1121 880 1464 965 762 491

Source: Public Health Engineering Department, Raipur, Chhattisgarh

District Bastar Bilaspur Dhamtari Durg JanjgirChampa Jashpur Kanker Kawardha Korba Koriya Mahasamund Raigarh Raipur Rajnandgaon Surguja Overall

Open wells and hand pumps No of No of habitation schemes covered 667 293 13,650 3277 7152 3215 13,519 2193 10,113 2832

Piped water supply (PWS) No of No of habitation schemes covered 30 91 790 453 258 1142 972 643 244 417

Groundwater-based schemes

0 0 0 3 0 2 1 5 1 1 31

No of schemes 0 2 0 15 1

PWS

0 0 0 106 0 172 1 44 13 11 675

No of habitation covered 0 14 0 183 131 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 10 1 28

No of schemes 1 11 0 0 0

Others

Surface water-based schemes

Table 4.3 Scheme-wise coverage of rural water supply estimated for the Chhattisgarh part of Mahanadi river basin

1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 10 1 27

No of habitation covered 0 11 0 0 0

0 0 0 4 0 0 8 0 1 10 42

0 0 0 4 0 0 8 0 1 9 40

Others (RWH schemes and non-conventional sources) No of No of habitation schemes covered 19 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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purification. There are only 675 habitations covered by piped water supply schemes based on surface water sources, and there are 31 of them. These are group/regional water supply schemes. Another 27 habitations are covered by surface water–based drinking water sources (28 nos.), and there are no distribution systems available for these. The state PHED also show around 16,764 schemes (as other tube wells) covering a total of 9687 habitations. Though not explicitly mentioned, these are most likely to be private wells owned by farmers not only for irrigation but also for domestic water supply. Another important stakeholder in water resources development in Chhattisgarh is the industrial sector. Chhattisgarh is poised to record high industrial growth with a good endowment of iron ore, coal and limestone deposits. It is projected that the installed capacity for crude steel (iron) production would be 35.0 million ton by the year 2025, with an addition of 18 million ton since 2014. The annual water requirement for achieving this additional capacity would be 63 MCM (MoS 2014: p. 8). The water demand for these industries will have to be met from surface water sources. It appears that the agency (PHED) heavily depends on hand pumps for rural water supply. According to the statistics provided in the website of PHED, Chhattisgarh, there are around 257,063 hand pumps in the state, and these hand pumps are drilled in the hard rock terrain. As our analysis suggests, seasonal depletion of groundwater is a widespread phenomenon in the state, with sharp fall in water levels in the wells after the end of monsoon, as pumping for agricultural use increases. This can threaten the sustainability of water supply from hand pumps. As per PHED report, 1616 hand pumps had gone into disuse due to water level drops. As per the official estimates, development of groundwater in the state is quite low, with the annual abstraction touching only 20% of the estimated utilizable recharge of 10.67 BCM (GoC 2013). While these figures can be quested due to the obvious reason mentioned early that there are high chances of over-estimation of utilizable recharge and the actual degree of development could be far higher, it is an undisputable fact that the use of groundwater in the state is still not very intensive and can go up in future. Therefore, more numbers of drinking water hand pumps are likely to fail when groundwater draft in the state increases. Therefore, the existing water agencies of the state are not effective in water resources allocation and water resources management. Sufficient technical capability exists in undertaking design and execution of water development projects, including dams, diversion systems, canals and other hydraulic structures; pipelines; wells and tube wells. But, what is lacking is the ability to assess the impact of development of one segment of the resource on the other, for instance impact of higher degree of groundwater use on the sustainability of water supply from wells during the lean season and stream-flows in rivers, and impact of decentralized water harvesting on the inflows into reservoirs downstream, and impact of surface water import for gravity irrigation from canals on groundwater resource.

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Existing Policies Governing Water Resources Development and Water Management

Water management policy of the state focuses on water supply augmentation, with development of large, medium and minor irrigation schemes, including those which are based on reservoirs and diversion systems (weirs and barrages). With the building of many new schemes after formation of the state of Chhattisgarh, the area under irrigation in the state has gone up from 23% of the gross sown area (1.328 m. ha) in November 2000 to 34% in 2015–16. During the period, the irrigation potential created (from surface schemes) jumped from 1.45 m. ha to 1.95 m. ha (source: based on www.cgwrd.in). Free electricity is supplied to farmers for lift irrigation schemes, including groundwater-based schemes and (minor) river lift schemes. As a result, groundwater irrigation has also expanded in the state during the past 15 years considerably. Like many other Indian states, Chhattisgarh is also following the policy of free electricity for the farm sector. The major justification for this is to reduce the hardship of farmers who are under distress due to frequent droughts. This policy surely helps the farmers to continue with a paddy-dominated cropping system, by lowering the cost of cultivation. The Draft State Water Policy (2012) of Chhattisgarh gives importance to supplying water to meet the requirement of all the three major sectors of water use, as the goal of the water resources development policy of the state, and the policy highlights the need for sustainable development of water resources so as to minimize the adverse social and environmental impacts of water resources development. It also talks about rationalization of water rates for different sectors, such as industry, agriculture and domestic use. However, this is mainly from the perspective of recovering the cost of supplying water and not for promoting efficient use. Though water conservation and water quality management are two of the objectives of the state water policy, the policy document is silent on water demand management in particular and the use of market instruments such as water pricing and water tax.

4.3.3

Current Knowledge Gaps in Water Resources Management

The basins falling in Chhattisgarh state are the Mahanadi, Godavari, Ganges and Narmada. These basins have their upper catchments falling inside the state. These catchments are characterized by undulating or hilly and forested terrains. Assessing the hydrology of such catchments to determine the effective availability of groundwater and surface water, for sound water resources planning requires sound understanding of the way: changes in forest cover affects stream-flows; increase in groundwater abstraction influences base flows/lean season flows in the streams; and changes in crop cover (increase in cropping intensity) affects the stream-flows

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and groundwater. However, the resource assessment is being done in a segmented fashion in the state. Assessment of neither surface water potential nor groundwater potential takes into account groundwater-surface water interactions. This can lead to double counting of the water which contributes to lean season flows in rivers, both under groundwater and surface water. A study in catchments of Western Ghats region has shown (NIH 1999) base flow can be a major component of the total runoff from hilly and mountainous catchments with higher base flow coefficient (ratio of base flow to total runoff) for lower magnitudes of rainfall and lower values for higher magnitudes of rainfall. Hence, the chances for over-estimation of groundwater recharge could be high in such physical environments. As is seen from the analysis presented in the earlier section, while the official estimates put the stage of groundwater resources development in the state and the Mahanadi basin to be ‘safe’, the analysis of long-term trend in water levels in the observation wells does not conform to this. Ideally, with a positive groundwater balance in all the districts, the water levels should be rising consistently over time. However, this is not seen to be happening. While there is high degree of overestimation of utilizable recharge, there is high chance of underestimation of groundwater abstraction. Deepening the understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions is crucial for sustainable management of groundwater and also maintaining the lean season flows in rivers, which support the reservoirs meant for irrigation and drinking water supply schemes based on surface water. Assessment of water resources potential would require integrated hydrological model for surface and groundwater resources, which can quantify the following: surface runoff for the existing land use, land cover, soil and precipitation; base flow during the monsoon and non-monsoon periods and changes in water levels in the aquifers, for different degrees of stresses (abstraction) induced on the aquifer system. Another important parameter, which is crucial for hydrological assessment, is the geo-hydrological properties of the hard rock aquifers of the region. Accurate estimation of utilizable groundwater resources done using the ‘water level fluctuation approach’ would depend heavily on the reliability of data on specific yield of the aquifers (Chatterjee and Ray 2014). Similarly, realistic estimation of groundwater outflows into natural streams would depend on the reliability of data on transmissivity of aquifers. Such data should be available for maximum number of locations, and the number of stations for which such data should be generated would depend on the heterogeneity of the geological strata. The fact that six to seven different types of aquifers underlying the state, it is important to have geo-hydrological properties established for each type of aquifer. An important question in catchment hydrology, which is critical for improving the understanding of the hydrology of the region, is the impact of forest cover, particularly differential impact of trees and grass cover on groundwater recharge and runoff. Addressing this question is important because of the following reasons: the state has large area under forest land use; the Mahanadi basin area which falls in the state has several large- and medium-sized dams which receive inflows from the

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forested catchments and afforestation is one of the items under State Action Plan on Climate Change. While it is well established that impact of forest catchments on catchment water yield through increase in evapotranspiration is greater as compared to grassed catchments, the relative impact depends on the vegetation condition, soil types (Hamilton and King 1983; Oliveira et al. 2005; Zhang et al. 1999) and climate (Zhang et al. 1999). The water for meeting ET demand of trees can come partly from precipitation ‘interception’, partly from the moisture in the active root zone, partly from the unsaturated zone underlying the soil and also partly from shallow groundwater in the catchment. While its impact on overall yield of the catchment would be negative, depending on how the increased demand is being met from the hydrological system, the impact will be seen either on runoff or groundwater or both. If the deep soil strata (vadoze zone) along with top soil contribute to evapotranspiration of trees, then the impact will be on both groundwater system and runoff, whereas if shallow groundwater contributes to ET, then the most significant impact will be on base flows and groundwater. Higher the leaf area index, higher will be the transpiration (Hamilton and King 1983; Oliveira et al. 2005). On the other hand, litter cover on the forest floor increases infiltration rate of precipitation significantly (Hamilton and King 1983). Nevertheless, the large canopy cover will have some effect on the micro climate in terms of increasing the humidity, reducing temperature and solar radiation. While all these factors would reduce ET rates for the vegetation per unit area, the third factor will also have negative impact on the biomass outputs for crops due to the shade created by the tree cover. Obviously, not much thinking has gone into understanding the impact of planting new trees on hydrology and water availability, as against maintaining grass cover, etc. for soil conservation. This knowledge would help devise strategies for both forest management and catchment management, done with an eye on carbon sequestration, with no adverse impact on water yield of catchments.

4.3.4

Governance of Water in Chhattisgarh Part of Mahanadi Basin and the Emerging Issues

4.3.4.1

Defining Water Governance

Governance in the context of water refers to the art of rule-making, encompassing all aspects of water resources development and management. Therefore, water governance should concern the following: water resource assessment and water planning; water resources development; water allocation; supply of water in different sectors; water pricing; water use including water pollution; wastewater treatment and water recycling and reuse. In the context of water resources evaluation and planning, the governance is about the following: (1) who makes the rules relating to the resource evaluation and planning methodology, planning units, tools, processes and agencies

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to be employed for resource evaluation and planning; and (2) how the rules are framed—i.e. what kinds of considerations are involved in framing them. In the context of water resources development, the governance is about the following: (1) who makes the rules relating to the degree development of water resources, the potential sources of financing of water projects, the agencies which can execute water resource development projects and agencies which can manage them; and (2) what considerations are involved in making these rules. The process of rule-making is distinctly different from the rules themselves, and the governance focuses on the process and not the outcome, which is the ‘rule’. Good governance of water essentially leads to sound practice of making rules relating to water resource evaluation, water resource planning, water development and water management (Hunter Districts Water Board 1982; Page and Bekker 2005). Water governance refers to the range of political, legal, social, economic and administrative systems that are in place for effective management of water resources and their service delivery at different levels of society. Governance translates into political systems, laws, regulations, institutions, financial mechanisms and civil society development and consumer rights—basically the rules of the game (GWP 2003). In the case of water resources development, the rule, which is outcome of good governance, is the extent to which water resources in river basins can be appropriated.

4.3.4.2

Current Governance Issues in the Water Sector of Chhattisgarh

Multiple Governance Structures One of the biggest governance issues today is that rules relating to planning, development, allocation and management of water resources are being or can be framed at various levels and by various agencies. At the state level, the water resources department carries out planning of water resources development activities in different river valleys, including the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi river basin. In the absence of any exclusive institution at the state level, the state WRD also frames rules relating to the extent to which the resources within a basin can be appropriated. The state WRD can also frame rules on allocation of water from the schemes already developed across different water use sectors (agriculture, industry, municipal use and rural domestic use) based on the criteria it evolves. While WRD is the largest player, different line agencies concerned with water supply such as the State PHED and State Industrial Department also separately develop water resources (both surface and groundwater) to meet their sectoral requirements. They do not take cognizance of how such appropriation affects other sectors, which are dependent on the same water resources. There is already a growing dissent amongst farmers and fishing community over contracting of a private firm for developing one of the tributaries of the Mahanadi (Sheonath

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River) for allocating water to an industrial area by Chhattisgarh State Industrial Department. At the same time, the several hundreds of village Panchayats in the state also can frame rules relating to the degree of development of surface water resources in their locality. Under the Panchayati Raj Act, passed through the 72nd Constitutional Amendment, the Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRIs) enjoy powers with respect to development and management of surface water resources, within their administrative boundaries, and can frame rules in respect of these. Even the legally registered NGOs (societies and public Trusts) can undertake planning, development and management of small water harvesting/harnessing schemes, and watershed development activities in villages, even without the written permission of the Panchayats, so long as no objections are raised by the governing body of the Gram Panchayat to such activities. This is because there is no clarity on who (within a state) can frame rules relating to all aspects of planning, development, and operation and maintenance of water resources development and management projects. Or in other words, rules are framed at various levels. Under the programme launched by the Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation to develop Water Safety and Security Plans for villages, the Gram Panchayats are entrusted with the responsibility of water resource evaluation (groundwater assessment at the GP level); water supply planning, including water budgeting and selecting technologies for village-level water supply. The methods and tools for resource monitoring and evaluation, water budgeting and even procedure/process to be followed for water supply planning are all provided by the Ministry guidelines (see, WSP 2015), and even tool kit also exist for preparation of drinking water security plan for villages. This is probably in recognition of the startling reality that the GPs in most situations do not have the technical capability to determine the criteria for resource evaluation and planning. A quick review of the methods used for resource evaluation and water budgeting shows that there are simply crude and highly unreliable. While GP is the unit for groundwater assessment, there is no scientific consideration in taking this as the appropriate unit for resource evaluation and planning. Further, the methodology for resource evaluation and planning and the selection of water supply technology have weak scientific basis. The estimation of natural groundwater recharge (annual groundwater availability) and water consumption in crop production, two crucial planning variables, are based on ad hoc norms. The net result is over-estimation of the resource base, unrealistic estimates of irrigation water use in different sectors. The process of selecting technology for water supply gives due consideration to the institutional capability of the GP to run the scheme, rather than the physical sustainability of water supply (source: based on a review of WSP 2015). The only consideration in choosing these methods seems to be that the GP level Water Supply and Sanitation Committee should be able to undertake groundwater assessment, water budgeting and water supply planning exercises and run the schemes so designed. Given the fact that the Mahanadi is an inter-state river basin, the allocation of water from the basin by the upper riparian state is already in a contested terrain. With

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rapid industrialization sweeping the state of Odisha, every industry which wanted to set up manufacturing units along the Mahanadi river was promised water from it, and by 2012, the river water accounts for nearly 62% of the total water allocation by the water resources department for industries in the state, while it was only 13% five years ago (source: Down to Earth, 29 February, 2012). In fact, since 2006, tension has been building up between the water resources department and the local governments and farmers over the government’s decision to increase allocation of water from Hirakud dam for industries. Given this scenario, Odisha has begun to raise opposition to Chhattisgarh’s plan to build more diversion systems in its territory. The government of Odisha has already approached the Ministry of Water Resources of Government of India to set up a tribunal for adjudication of water allocation from the basin. In a meeting held in the Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India between the representatives of the two states, the Chief Minister of Odisha expressed the opinion that the work on all ongoing projects in the Mahanadi basin in Chhattisgarh state should be stopped for 3 months and an Expert Committee may be formed to study the impact of projects in the Mahanadi basin and give its report within 3 months. However, the contention of the CM of Chhattisgarh is that the River has sufficient water to meet the requirements of both the states and that 57% of it is still flowing into the ocean un-captured. Further, Government of Chhattisgarh stated that most of the ongoing projects were started 10 years back and they are in their final stages of completion. Hence, it is not possible to stop the construction work on these projects. The Government of Chhattisgarh wanted a Joint Control Board for monitoring water diversions in the basin. The meeting decided to set up a Special Committee under the chairmanship of Dr Amarjit Singh, the present Secretary of Water Resources. The Committee was to list out the water resources projects in Odisha and Chhattisgarh that have been constructed or are under construction without the approval of Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) of Mo WR, RD and GR. Different teams will be sent to these states for this work. The committee was to submit a report within a week’s time. Hon’ble Union Minister had asked the states to put on hold the project construction works for 1 week. It was also decided that the gauge and discharge sites will be opened at inter-state border of Odisha and Chhattisgarh at a location, for effective measurement of flows from Chhattisgarh catchment into Hirakud dam. It was also suggested that a detailed study of water availability of the Mahanadi basin be carried out by National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee. The Government of Odisha suggested formation of an Expert Committee. The state of Chhattisgarh agreed to the formation of an Expert Committee. The member of the Expert Committee will include experts from different fields and representatives of both the states.

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Choosing the Wrong Governance Unit It is an established fact that the governance decisions relating to water resource evaluation, planning and water resource development would be effective only if they are applied at the river basin scale. Therefore, the government entrusting such powers to individual Panchayats will only force the latter to use the rudimentary methods imposed from top, instead of evolving their own criteria and tools for carrying out the assessment for their local administrative units. More importantly, their planning decision on how much water to be captured, how much area to be treated under watershed programme, etc. will be driven by local interests of maximizing their social and economic benefits rather than the interests of the basin communities at large. These two factors will reduce the overall effectiveness of water governance measures. One reason for this is that there is high probability of big errors in the estimates of resource availability, if assessment is done at the level of villages, due to the ‘scale effects’ in hydrology. Similarly, there is high probability of over-appropriation of the resources with several negative externalities of upstream development on downstream users, if planning is bottom-up—from village to watershed to sub-basin to basins. For water resource planning to be optimum, it has to be reconciliation of both bottom-up (micro level to macro level) and macro level to micro level (top-down) planning. Unfortunately, small water harvesting structures (SWHSs) are planned and built in the upper catchments of large river basins by the Minor Irrigation wing of the Water Resources Department and State Rural Development Department in a decentralized manner under various schemes. This is driven by local needs and based on the assumption that SWHSs are ecologically and socially benign, and their downstream impacts in terms of reduction in stream-flows are never analysed. There is no catchment (hydrological) assessment exercise undertaken to arrive at the optimum level of development, prior to planning such decentralized schemes. This leads to over-development of the resource, with negative social, economic and environmental consequences.

Absence of Rules for Allocation of Water Across Sectors Though the water resources department has powers to allocate water from the reservoir and diversion schemes which it builds as per the allocation plans worked out at the time of planning of the scheme, during emergencies, the district collector has powers to freeze such reservoirs and earmark the water for high priority, basic survival needs. Such allocations are not based on serious considerations of the socioeconomic realities, but instead are knee-jerk reactions to an imminent crisis. Often when water from reservoirs is frozen, on Collector orders, it remains in these reservoirs, due to lack of adequate infrastructure for transporting to those places experiencing severe water shortages. While such decisions result in reduced allocation of water for irrigation, no rules exist and no mechanisms are in place for compensating for the farmers who are adversely affected.

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The absence of an apex agency for water resource governance at the state level is conspicuous, like in many other states, as many conflicts emerge over allocation of water across sectors. Such an agency can be responsible for framing rules relating to (i) the resource evaluation and planning methodology, planning units, tools, processes and agencies to be employed for resource evaluation and planning; (ii) the degree development of water resources, the potential sources of financing of water projects, the agencies which can execute water resource development projects and agencies which can manage them; (iii) the allocation of water from public systems to various sectors and the price that should be charged for water supplied to each sector and (iv) the various considerations (criteria) used for framing such rules. Framing of rules regarding the proportional allocation of water from a river basin to different sectors, including the environment itself, is a major governance challenge. Good governance calls for using social, economic and environmental considerations in framing water allocation rules. This is crucial for reducing future conflicts. However, currently, such allocations are largely driven by political interests. An equally difficult challenge is to evolve rules regarding the pricing of water in different sectors. There is no consensus on whether prices should be on the basis of the cost of production of water, or the affordability of water for the user communities, or the economic benefits produced by the use of water in a particular sector. The ideal pricing norm should be based on all these considerations. This means that in sectors such as industry, wherein water use efficiency (Rs/m3 of water) or the economic return from the use of unit volume of water is generally very high, the unit price of water could be much higher than that in irrigated agriculture, which has relatively much lower water use efficiency, owing to the higher ability to pay. In the case of basic survival needs such as drinking and domestic water supply, since the social benefits of consuming adequate quantities of water (in the form of preventing malnutrition, lower infant mortality and lower incidence of water-borne diseases resulting in better human development) are high, subsidies will have to be provided to those who are poor to make water supply services affordable.

4.4

Institutional, Legal and Policy Alternatives

As discussed in previous chapter, the key water management challenges in the Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin are highly variable flows; high vulnerability of the basin population to the impacts of climate variability; poor groundwater potential, severely limiting its potential as a drought buffer; challenges of intersectoral allocation of water to meet the growing needs from different competitive sectors in the wake of rapidly growing industrial water demands and pollution of the river due to indiscriminate disposal of untreated industrial effluents and raw sewage from cities and towns located on the banks of the Mahanadi into the trunk river and its tributaries. That said, the institutional alternatives for addressing these water

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management challenges in future should be based on the water management strategies. The strategies identified are (i) watershed management and conservation of lakes in the short-term, and creating multi-annual storage in reservoirs in the long-run on the supply augmentation side; (ii) introduction of water-saving technologies for high-value horticultural crops in the short-run, and water pricing, water rights and rationing of water allocation (during droughts) in the long-run on the demand side and (iii) prioritized allocation of water from large surface reservoirs in the basin for domestic purpose to address inter-sectoral allocation issues.

4.4.1

Institutional Capacity Building Needs for Improving Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Resources Sector

4.4.1.1

Institutional Reforms

As suggested by many scholars in the past (see Kemper 2007; Mohanty and Gupta 2012; Rosegrant and Gazmuri 1994; NWC 2010; Rosegrant and Binswanger 1994; Saleth 1996), mostly based on empirical evidence, establishment of water rights and water entitlements in volumetric terms to affect changes in the user behaviour would be the hallmark of institutional reforms in the water sector for dealing with scarcity and droughts. In Chhattisgarh part of the Mahanadi basin, such reforms need to be thought about for the long term. The water right system being envisaged here is not ‘absolute ownership rights’ over water, but only water use rights and therefore can keep changing from year to year and over long-time duration with emergence of new water right holders in the basin. Establishment of water rights system would require quantification of water in the catchments at different levels of dependability with greater accuracy. The data collection and resource evaluation methods need improvement. This includes measurement of lean season flows from small-scale catchments of size 500–1000 sq. km. This would help improve assessment of utilizable groundwater recharge. It also requires evolving sound criteria and norms for allocation of water across sectors and users within each sector, which are based on principles of social equity, sustainability and efficiency. Legitimate institutions need to be created at the basin level and sub-basin level for allocation of water amongst different sectors. The line agencies in the respective sectors (Water Resources Department, Water Supply and Sanitation Department and Industrial Development Corporation) can allocate water amongst the users within the respective sectors. As regards irrigation, the water resources department can allocate bulk quantities of surface water amongst the water user associations (at secondary and tertiary levels) which in turn can allocate water amongst the farmers. In the case of groundwater, there has to be institutions at various levels (from aquifer to watershed to village) for monitoring the use of water and to enforce water

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rights, and this is going to be a long and arduous process, given the changing resource dynamic (across years and across seasons) and decentralized nature of its use (Kumar 2000, 2007). However, in the case of the Mahanadi, given the fact that the amount of surface water use would be far higher than that of groundwater, we focus on water rights for the stocks available from large reservoirs and diversion systems. Pricing of water including charging of resource fee from the users will be an important aspect of institutional reform. Norms for pricing of water for different sectors will have to be worked out. This is going to be an important institutional challenge. The present practice of cross-subsidising water providing for agriculture at the expense of industrial and urban sectors is going to be extremely difficult, in the changing political-economic landscape of the region. Nevertheless, pricing of water from surface water bodies allocated to industries should be guided by the consideration of the opportunity cost of self-provisioning of same quality water by the industries. This is because increasing allocation of water for industries from surface water systems will be at the expense of domestic sector, which will have to incur huge costs to obtain water of potable standards from underground water sources. The current practices of supplying a large volume of good quality water from surface reservoirs and river water diversion systems to industries and leaving the rural domestic sector to manage with poor quality groundwater (containing minerals such as fluorides and nitrates and salinity) for drinking and cooking needs need to be done away with. High prices for the water to the industries will help reduce their water demand.

4.4.1.2

Strengthening of Various Organizations and Local Institutional Development

As is evident from the analysis presented in Sect. 7, currently no agency generates information to improve water management at the basin level using IWRM concepts, which captures physical, social, economic and environmental considerations. We have identified several knowledge gaps in WRM with the existing institutions at the state level. The data, information and knowledge for operationalizing IWRM have to come from many disciplines and cannot be generated by a single agency. It is also unlikely that the required HR capabilities, tools and finances for the same are available with a single agency. We also need to avoid situations of single agency perform multiplicity of functions like what was seen in the case of Water Resources Department, which reduce the ‘institutional effectiveness’. In order to build accountability and transparency in the system, situations which create conflict of interest need to be avoided—WRD doing flood forecasting; revenue department doing damage assessment; State Pollution Control Board enforcing pollution control norms are some of them. We also need to create the right kind of incentives for agencies to perform. The problem arising from multiple governance structures (from State to Gram Panchayats) and choosing the wrong governance units need to be rectified.

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Therefore, some restructuring of the existing water institutions and creation of new institutions are necessary. It should be based on the following design principles: (1) clear distinction between water development and water resources management functions; (2) institutions responsible for water allocation/regulating water use have to be different from water service agencies—viz. Water Resources Department, Public Health Engineering Department, environmental management agencies; (3) institutions responsible for water quality monitoring and those for managing water quality cannot be the same and (4) institutions responsible for investment in water quantity management and WRM should also be enforcing norm and regulations on water use.2 A River Basin Organization (RBO) shall be created as a coordinating institution, which would monitor the performance of line agencies. This will be far more developed an institution than the Joint Monitoring Committee proposed for the Mahanadi river basin and will perform the following functions. • Developing basin management plan (including flood management plan (FMP)), with strategies for and integration with local management plans. • Establishment of water rights system and water allocation amongst different sectors, levying water resource tax and pollution tax through line agencies. • Allocating funds for water resource management activities: catchment management activities and wastewater treatment; and monitoring water use and water quality. • Monitoring of operation of flood control/regulation structures, including dams, by the agencies concerned to ensure that they are according to the plan. • Monitoring land use changes (forest cover, agricultural land use). • Inspection system for wastewater treatment plants, flood control structures, checking and authorization, monitoring the flood-fighting system and providing support systems for flood fighting. • Monitoring the flood warning system, flood preparedness and maintenance system. • Monitoring the community engagement system, monitoring the resources and monitoring. As we can see, some of the functions related to flood management are relevant for Odisha part of the basin only. Figure 4.1 shows the proposed institutional arrangement for water management in the basin, including the various service agencies and user groups and their interactions. The service agencies, in this case, are the Water Resources Departments of the states, flood control wing within the WRD, the Public If the focus is on flood management, the agency which develops flood management plans (FMP) should not be executing it to avoid creation of vested interests and bias. The agency doing rescue operations should be responsible for issuing flood warnings and community awareness and education about floods—as it has strong incentive to do it to reduce the amount of rescue and relief work. Assessment of flood damages, especially the economic damage, which involve a lot of science, should be done by scientific agencies, in order that it attracts greater investment in flood management programmes.

2

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Industry/ Municipalities

Monitoring pollution

Pollution

Urban Water Council Funds for Treatment of water Basin plan, FMP, water rights, water use monitoring, finance

Pollution taxes

BMO (Mahanadi) Water tax

Local water management plan, water tax

Water rights

Service Agencies Local water management institutions Water rights

Water tax Groundwater users/Canal irrigators

Fig. 4.1 Institutional arrangements for water management in Mahanadi river basin Source: Based on Authors’ own analysis

Health Engineering Department, Industrial Development Corporation and Department of Environment and Forests.

4.4.2

Governance Reforms

A key element of government reform is the creation of a Water Resources Council at the state level. The council can frame rules for water allocation across sectors using social, economic and environmental considerations. This is crucial for reducing future conflicts and preventing unnecessary political interference when it comes to allocation of water from major public schemes to different sectors and regions.

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The council should also be entrusted with the powers to evolve rules regarding the pricing of water in different sectors. The ideal pricing norm should be based on the consideration of cost of production of water, affordability for the user community and the economic benefits that can be produced from the use of water. In sectors such as industry, the unit price of water could be much higher than that in irrigated agriculture, which has relatively much lower water use efficiency, owing to the higher ability to pay. In the case of basic survival needs such as drinking and domestic water supply, owing to the large social benefits of consuming adequate quantities of water are high, subsidies will have to be provided to those who are poor to make water supply services affordable. As regards allocating water for meeting ecological needs, the government will have to purchase the water from the agency which bears the cost of ensuring such flows and recover the same by charging for environmental management from the community that is benefitted. This institution can thus effectively govern water resources development and water allocation. In Maharashtra, a water resource regulatory authority exists and was formed through the enactment of MaharashtraWater ResourcesRegulatory Authority Act 2005. However, such agency will have to be supported by institutions at the lower level to carry out water resources monitoring, including water quality monitoring; enforce allocation of water rights amongst user groups and users; recover water taxes and water charges, etc. Currently, though water resource monitoring is carried out by various agencies, it is not well-targeted to assess the impacts of various users and polluters of water on water ecosystem and to analyse the performance of agencies which are responsible for water quality management and pollution control. At the next level, rules have to be framed at the level of the river basin, and these rules should concern the extent of water resources development in the basin; develop plans for basin-wide water resources management and water allocation; and execute basin plans. Development and execution of basin management plans will include working out norms for volumetric allocation of water to different sectors, including environment (on an annual basis); fixing volumetric water prices (for surface water and groundwater) for various competitive uses; recovering water charges from the user groups and service agencies (Water Resources Department, Public Health Engineering Department, Industrial Development Corporation, etc.) and State Pollution Control Board. River basin organizations (RBOs) are the most ideal institutional model for framing rules concerning water allocation and WRM and implementing basin management plans. They will be the coordinating institutions for various line agencies operating in the basin so that their actions conform to the basin management plan (Kumar 2006, 2010). In this case, the agencies are WRD, CSPHED, CSPCB, GWD and Forest Department. The Mahanadi river basin being an inter-state river basin with disputes of sharing of water and the party states already approaching the central government for resolving them amicably, it is quite likely that a tribunal will be soon set up for this basin too. The norms for inter-state water allocation will then be governed by the ‘tribunal award’. In that case, the RBO will have the primary responsibility of interstate water allocation and will have to monitor the inflows of water into Hirakud

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reservoir, which is close to the inter-state boundary, in different years and seasons vis-à-vis its quantity and quality to ensure that the ‘award’ of the tribunal is honoured.

4.4.3

Legal and Policy Reforms

Changing water supply and pricing norms, especially for industries in a way that the volumetric water price reflects the opportunity cost of using water, requires policy reforms at the state level. Similarly, establishment of water rights and water entitlements for surface water and groundwater resources requires legal reforms. This will be a departure from the practice of using ad hoc norms for pricing water supplied to industries. Groundwater is an open-access resource, and the right to use groundwater is attached to land ownership rights. However, there is no restriction on the amount of water that landowner can pump out from underground. The new law should clearly define the right to use groundwater in volumetric terms for individual landowners and others, by delineating water rights from land rights. It should also provide for the Water Resources Department to determine and enforce water entitlements in canal command areas. A new law should be enacted for creating RBOs and catchment management agency for the state.

4.5

Conclusions

In order to affect reduction in the demand for water in agriculture and industry and to effectively manage inter-sectoral allocation of water from the basin, institutional reforms are needed, in the form of marginal cost pricing of water, and introduction of water rights or water entitlements for canal water and groundwater. In the case of industries, water charges need to be raised to reflect the opportunity cost of not having high-quality water from surface sources. The strategy of efficient pricing of water needs to be applied to irrigators in canal commands. However, this would require irrigation modernization. As regards water rights, to begin with, water rights reforms can be initiated for water supplied from public systems. Governance of water in the state of Chhattisgarh needs to be improved with the creation of a Water Resources Council at the state level. The council can frame rules for water allocation across sectors using social, economic and environmental considerations. This is crucial for resolving future conflicts over water allocation. The council should have powers to evolve rules regarding the pricing of water in different sectors. The ideal pricing norm should be based on the consideration of cost of production of water, affordability for the user community and the economic benefits that can be produced from the use of water. As regards allocating water for meeting ecological needs, the government will have to purchase the water from the agency

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which bears the cost of ensuring such flows and recover the same by charging for environmental management from the community that is benefitted. In order to improve sector performance for climate resilience, restructuring of the existing water institutions and creation of new institutions are necessary. It should be based on the following design principles: (1) clear distinction between water development and water resources management functions; (2) institutions responsible for water allocation/regulating water use have to be different from water service agencies; (3) institutions responsible for water quality monitoring and those for managing water quality cannot be the same; and, (4) the institution responsible for investment in water quantity management and WRM should also be enforcing norm and regulations on water use. An RBO shall be created as a coordinating institution at the level of the Mahanadi river basin, which would monitor the performance of line agencies. This will be far more developed an institution than the Joint Monitoring Committee proposed for the Mahanadi river basin. The RBO can frame rules concerning the extent of water resources development in the basin; and develop and execute plans for basin-wide water resources management and water allocation and management of floods. Development and execution of basin management plans will include working out norms for volumetric allocation of water to different sectors, including the environment; fixing volumetric water prices for various competitive uses, recovering water charges from the user groups and service agencies and the State Pollution Control Board. They will be the coordinating institutions for various line agencies operating in the basin so that their actions conform to the basin management plan.

References Central Pollution Control Board. (2012). Status of Water Quality in India 2012. New Delhi: Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests. Central Water Commission. (2014). Mahanadi basin report 2.0, Central Water Commission and National Remote Sensing Agency, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India, New Delhi, March. Chatterjee, R., & Ray, R. K. (2014). Assessment of ground water resources: A review of international practices. Govt. of India. Ministry of Water Resources. Central Ground Water Board. Frederiksen, H. D. (1997). Institutional principles for sound management of water and related environmental resources. In A. K. Biwas (Ed.), Water resources: Environmental planning, management, and development. McGraw-Hill company. Global Water Partnership. (2003). Effective water governance: Leaning from dialogues, report prepared for the 3rd world water forum. Hague. Government of Chhattisgarh. (2013). State action plan on climate change, inclusive growth for improved resilience, draft final report. Raipur. Hamilton, L. S., & King, P. N. (1983). Tropical forested watersheds: Hydrologic and soil responses to major uses or conversions. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. Hamilton, L. S., & King, P. N. (1983). Tropical forested watersheds: Hydrologic and soils response to major uses or conversions (No. 634.922 H3). Boulder: Westview Press. Hunter District Water Board. (1982). Annual report 1981–82, Hunter District Water Board. New Castle.

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James, A. J., Kumar, M. D., Batchelor, J., Batchelor, C., Bassi, N., Choudhary, N., et al. (2015). Catchment assessment and management planning for watershed management. Washington, DC: World Bank. Kemper, K. E. (2007). Instruments and institutions for groundwater management. In The agricultural groundwater revolution: Opportunities and threats to development (pp. 153–172). CAB International Publishing. Kumar, M. D. (2000). Institutional framework for managing groundwater: A case study of community Organisations in Gujarat, India. Water Policy, 2(6), 423–432. Kumar, M. D. (2006). Water management in River Basin: A case study of Sabarmati River Basin in Gujarat. Ph. D Thesis submitted to the Department of Business Studies, Sardar Patel University. VV Nagar, Gujarat. Kumar, M. D. (2007). Groundwater management in India: physical, institutional and policy alternatives. New Delhi: Sage Publications. Kumar, M. D. (2010). Managing water in river basins: Hydrology, economics, and institutions. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Ministry of Steel (Mos). (2014). Infrastructure Study Report for 300 MT Steel by 2025. Ranchi: Ministry of Steel, Report submitted by Mecon Ltd., Govt. of India. Mohanty, N., & Gupta, S. (2012). Water reforms through water markets: International experience and issues for India. In S. Morris & R. Shekhar (Eds.), India infrastructure report. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. National Institute of Hydrology. (1999). Rainfall-runoff modelling of Western Ghat Region of Karnataka (CS (AR) 31/98–99, National Institute of Hydrology). Roorkee: Jal Vigyan Bhawan. National Water Commission. (2010). The impacts of water trading in the southern Murray–Darling Basin: An economic, social and environmental assessment. Canberra: NWC. Oliveira, R. S., Bezerra, L., Davidson, E. A., Pinto, F., Klink, C. A., Nepstad, D. C., & Moreira, A. (2005). Deep root function in soil water dynamics in cerrado savannas of central Brazil. Functional Ecology, 19(4), 574–581. Page, B., & Bakker, K. (2005). Water governance and water users in a privatized water industry: Participation in policy-making and in water services provision: A case study of England and Wales. International Journal of Water, 3(1), 38–60. Rosegrant, M. W., & Binswanger, H. P. (1994). Markets in tradable water rights: Potential for efficiency gains in developing country water resource allocation. World Development, 22(11), 1613–1625. Rosegrant, M. W., & Gazmuri, R. S. (1994). Reforming water allocation policy through markets in tradable water rights: Lessons from Chile, Mexico, and California (No. 581-2016-39418). Paper presented at the DSE/IFPRI/ISISI workshop on Agricultural Sustainability, Growth and Poverty alleviation in East and South East Asia, October 3–6, 1994. Saleth, R. M. (1996). Water institutions in India: Economics, law and policy (299 pp). New Delhi: Commonwealth Publishers. Saleth, R. M., & Dinar, A. (2004). The institutional economics of water: A cross-country analysis of institutions and performance. The World Bank. Talati, J., Kumar, M. D., & Ravindranath, R. (2005). Local and sub-basin level impacts of local watershed development projects: Hydrological and socio-economic analysis of two sub-basins of Narmada, water policy research highlight 15. Water Policy Research Highlight, 15. IWMITata Water Policy Research Program, Anand, Gujarat, India. Water and Sanitation Program (WSP). (2015). Tool kit for the preparation of a drinking water security plan (Supported by the Government of India). Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation and Water and Sanitation Program, February 2015. Zhang, L., Dawes, W. R., & Walker, G. R. (1999) Predicting the effect of vegetation changes on catchment average water balance (Technical Report 99/12). Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, November 1999.

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M. Dinesh Kumar did his BTech in Civil Engineering in 1988, ME in Water Resources Management in 1991 and PhD in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the executive director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF, international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (US) and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala). He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters and many journal articles. He has published in many international peerreviewed journals, viz. Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water ResourcesManagement, International Journal of WRD and Water Economics and Policy. He is currently also associate editor of Water Policy and member of the editorial board of International Journal of WRD. His research works of global relevance are integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water and food security challenges; climate risk in WASH and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. Nitin Bassi is a natural resource management specialist (MPhil) having nearly 13 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a principal researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include River Basin and Catchment Assessment, Water Accounting, Institutional and Policy Analysis in Irrigation and Water Supply Management, Water Quality Analysis, Climate Variability, and Climate-induced Water Risk Analysis and Wetland Management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in projects, research studies and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT and SDTT. He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD and GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge, UK, and has several book chapters and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal ofWater ResourcesDevelopment; Journal of Hydrology; and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.

Chapter 5

Planning for Water Resources Management Under Climatic Extremes: The Case Study of a Hyper-Arid Region M. Dinesh Kumar, A. J. James, and Nitin Bassi

Abstract Luni River Basin in western Rajasthan experiences extreme climatic conditions with very hot summer and extremely cold winter, compounded by high inter-annual variability in rainfall and other weather parameters that cause severe droughts and occasional floods. Pali is one of the districts in this hyper-arid river basin. Excessive withdrawal of groundwater and surface water for irrigation has caused aquifer mining and environmental water stress. In order to identify the water management options for the basin that can help mitigate droughts and arrest groundwater depletion, a water accounting study was undertaken. This helped assess the quantum of water being used in various sectors, and evaluate the opportunities available for augmenting the supplies and reducing the demand for water in consumptive use sectors. Further analysis was carried out for a district, which falls fully in the basin, to analyse the extent to which each one of these interventions would help augment replenishable groundwater resources and reduce the demand for water in irrigation. The policy reforms required in the irrigation sector for affecting the implementation of these interventions are also identified. Keywords Luni river basin · Extreme climatic conditions · Water withdrawals · Groundwater depletion · Water accounting · IWRM planning

M. Dinesh Kumar (*) Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India e-mail: [email protected] A. J. James Consultant, Natural Resource Economics, Cochin, Kerala, India N. Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_5

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Introduction

Rajasthan is one of the most water-scarce regions in India, with very limited renewable freshwater resources and high aridity. Renewable water availability is least in the western parts of the state which receives extremely low rainfall and experiences hyper-arid climate. Part of the region is Thar desert. Yet, this part of the state has significant agricultural activities, supported by large-scale import of water through Indira Gandhi Nahar Project (IGNP) canals irrigating large areas in six districts in the desert, viz., Hanumangarh, Bikaner, Churu, Ganganagar, Jaisalmer and Barmer. The demand for water for agriculture has been growing with expansion of irrigated crop production, putting pressure on the limited freshwater resources. As surface water resources are very scarce in the river basins of this region and are already over-appropriated, groundwater is intensively used in for irrigated crop production and livestock farming. Aquifer mining is a major environmental threat in western Rajasthan. A project implemented by the government of Rajasthan with the support of the European Union during 2006–2013 sought integrated water management solutions for this region, to address the growing demand-supply gap in water resources and protect the integrity of the hydrological system. The project area encompassed 10 districts of the region. Luni river basin is one of the river basins of the region, which covers seven districts viz., Ajmer, Barmer, Jalore, Jodhpur, Nagaur, Pali and Rajsamand, some partly and some fully. A study was undertaken in Luni river basin to identify the range of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) solutions for the region on the supply and demand side and to evaluate the extent to which each one of these solutions would help address the water management challenges. Basin level water accounting was an important component of the study aimed at understanding the nature of water management challenges and opportunities for the basin. The chapter presents the findings of the water accounting study for the basin and the process of downscaling of the outputs generated from the WA study for preparing an IWRM plan for one of the districts falling fully within the basin.

5.2

Luni River Basin: A Bird’s Eye View

Luni is one of the largest river basins in Rajasthan, which falls fully within the geographical boundaries of the state. The drainage map of the basin is given in Plate 5.1. The basin has a total geographical area of 69,302 km2.1 The basin covers

1 Past studies and old official records of the government of Rajasthan report a basin area of 37,000 km2. The report study by Tahal consultants, however, has considered a modified area of 69,302 km2, based on terrestrial modeling. In our study, we have considered the modified basin area of 69,302 km2, which includes large areas in the northern side.

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Plate 5.1 Drainage map of Luni Basin, western Rajasthan (Area: 69,000 km2). (Source: Study on Planning of Water Resources of Rajasthan, Draft Final report submitted to SWRPD, GoR, Tahal Consultants, December 2013)

the districts of Ajmer, Jodhpur, Nagaur, Barmer, Jalore and Sirohi in part and Pali district in full. The Luni River originates from the western slopes of the Aravalli ranges at an elevation of 550 m above MSL, and after traversing a distance of 495 km in the south-westerly direction, it disappears into the marshy land of Rann of Kachchh (Bhuiyan and Kogan 2010). The rainfall in the basin ranges from as high as 1048 mm in the eastern slopes to a lowest of 221.50 mm in the south-western side. The rainfall is highly erratic, and the mean annual rainy days varies from a highest of 38 days in the high rainfall areas to a lowest of 12 days in the low rainfall areas (Tahal Consultants 2014). The mean value of maximum daily temperature experienced over the years in the basin ranges from 26.8 to 35
C and the highest value of maximum daily temperature experienced in a year range from 37.2 to 46.7
C. The mean value of minimum daily temperature experienced over the years in the basin ranges from 12.81 to 20.9
C. The lowest value of minimum daily temperature experienced in the basin ranges

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from 2.05 to 6
C. The annual mean value of daily wind speed ranges from 1.9 to 7.16 km/hour. The annual mean of daily relative humidity in the basin is 49.2%, with the values ranging from 43.5% to 60.4%. With very low rainfall, high temperature, and low relative humidity, most parts of the basin have arid to hyper-arid climatic conditions. The watershed elevation in the basin ranges from 1619 m to 0 m above mean sea level (Tahal Consultants 2014). The basin has heterogeneous geohydrology, with recent alluvium to older alluvium, tertiary, Jurassic and Vindhyan sandstone to Phyllites and Schist. The pre-monsoon depth to water table in the basin varies drastically. The average pre-monsoon depth to water table is in the range of 20–40 m below ground level in large parts, while many parts have water table in the range of 10–20 m. In certain pockets of Jalore, Nagaur, Barmer and Jodhpur, the water table depth is in the range of 60–80 m and 80–100 m (Tahal Consultants 2014). The soils in the basin is predominantly loamy sand occupying 48% of the geographical area of the basin, and the other soil types are sandy loam, silt loam, sandy clay loam, sand, loam and clay loam. The annual potential evaporation in the basin ranges from a lowest of 1500 mm near Jawai dam to a maximum of 2600 mm in the northern and north-western parts. Luni river basin as 13 sub-basins, the largest one being Luni sub-basin and the smallest is Pali sub-basin. The basin has two major and 11 medium reservoir schemes built for irrigation and drinking water supplies (Tahal Consultants 2014).

5.3 5.3.1

The Basin Hydrology and Groundwater Resources Rainfall in the Basin

Topography is a very important factor influencing the occurrence of monsoon rains in Luni river basin. The Aravalli mountain range is higher than the surrounding land and so the moisture-enriched air goes up the slope, showering mostly in the eastern part and the land west of the Aravalli Range receives less amount of rainfall. More than 90% of the annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season (June–September) alone and, in certain years, monsoon-rainfall accounts for the total annual rainfall (Das 1996). Analysis of point rainfall data for 13 locations in the basin for the period 1957–2012 shows that the lowest mean annual rainfall was in Barmer (267 mm) and highest in Desuri (638.5 mm) in the south-east of Pali. The coefficient of variation in rainfall, which reflects the inter-annual variability, ranges from a lowest of 39.1% in Ajmer to a highest of 60.4% in Barmer (source: authors own analysis based on data from IMD, 1957–2012). The arrival and/or retreat of the monsoon also get delayed in some years, whereas in other years one or both of the events occur early. As a result, there is high inter-annual variability in monsoon in terms of amount and intensity of precipitation, distribution and pattern of precipitation, wind speed and onset and withdrawal of the monsoon (Singh 1994). The rainfall is very erratic in the region. The number of rainy days varies from year to year and

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place to place in the region. On average, there are 21 rainy days in the region; in most years, the bulk of the rainfall occurs in the month of July, but in certain years it shifts even to September. The monsoon rainfall in the Luni Basin2 follows some patterns with variations in spatial distribution. During the years of low rainfall and drought, the amount of rainfall is found to decrease gradually from east to west or from north-east to southwest. During the years in which the entire country experienced droughts (1985, 1986, 1987, 1999, 2000 and 2002), Luni basin received very low rainfall, ranging from 0.0 to 200 mm. In 1987 and 2002, the entire basin was in the grip of extreme drought (Bhuiyan and Kogan 2010).

5.3.2

Hydrology and Geohydrology

10000.00 1000.00 100.00 10.00

2009-10

2007-08

2005-06

2003-04

2001-02

1999-00

1997-98

1993-94

1995-96

1991-92

1989-90

1987-88

1985-86

1983-84

1981-82

1979-80

1977-78

1975-76

1973-74

1.00 1971-72

Annual Observed runoff (MCM)

Due to low rainfall and high aridity, the basin produces very low runoff. The Luni River is an ephemeral stream and flows last for 2–3 months in a year even in a good rainfall year. Due to large-scale water resources development in the relatively better catchments available in the south-eastern parts, through small, medium and large reservoirs, in most years, the basin does not have outflows. The gross storage capacity of all the 13 (11 medium and two major) reservoirs built in the basin is estimated to be 560.37 MCM, with a total live storage capacity of 539.17 MCM. The flow of the basin (virgin flow) with 75% dependability estimated for the basin (Draft Final Report of Tahal Consultants, Vol. 3.2), is 196 MCM per annum. But, the observed flows at Gandhav gauging station for the period from 1970–71 to 2009–10 are provided in a semi-logarithmic graph in Fig. 5.1. The highest

Fig. 5.1 Observed streamflows at Gandhav, Luni river basin (1970–71 to 2009–10). (Source: Authors’ estimates using CWC data)

2 The analysis carried out by Bhuiyan and Kogan (2010) of droughts in the basin considered the drainage area, as per the old official records of Rajasthan government, i.e., 37,000 km2.

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recorded flow was during 1999–91, with a total annual flow of 2200 MCM. In 14 out of 39 years for which data are available, the streamflow was zero. One important hydrological feature of Luni river basin is that the stream channels are very shallow and infiltration of the soils in the stream beds is very high. Due to this reason, the flow rates (discharge) for the streams reduce towards downstream in the river course. The loamy sand, sand and sandy loam soils account for 70% of the basin area. The loamy sand, sand and sandy loam soils have very high infiltration rates. Such a soil cover ensures moderately good recharge to groundwater in the foothills of Aravalli ranges, which receive high rainfall of more than 1000 mm. The average annual renewable groundwater resource in the basin is estimated to be 3.65 cm. This is quite considerable when compared to the fact that the basin is arid to hyper-arid (source: based on Tahal Consultants report, Vol. 3.2, 2c). Groundwater abstraction in the basin has seen significant increase over the past 15 years since 1995. The estimated groundwater draft in the basin in 1995 was 2460 MCM, which went up to 2824.11 MCM in 2007 and then reduced marginally to 2717.5 MCM in 2009 (source: Report of Tahal Consultants 2013, Vol. 3.2, 2c). This is against a renewable groundwater resource of 2203 MCM per annum. The excessively high draft in 2007 could be because the five consecutive years preceding 2007, i.e., 2002–03 to 2006–07 were bad years, with no surface runoff, increasing the pressure on groundwater to meet growing water demands in the basin. The basin is able to sustain such a high level of abstraction by virtue of the groundwater stock available, which is now getting mined very fast. The sub-basin wise estimates of average annual renewable groundwater resources, average annual abstraction and groundwater stock (static groundwater resources) of Luni river basin are presented in Table 5.1. From the data on streamflows, and groundwater availability, it can be inferred that groundwater is the major source of water in the basin. But, several of the groundwater bearing formations in the basin also suffer from water quality problems, such as high levels of salinity, nitrate and fluoride. Large parts of the aquifers in the basin have EC levels ranging from 2250–5000 micro mhos/cm. Groundwater in only around 28% of the basin area have EC levels below, 2250 micro mhos/cm, and 72% of the area have EC levels higher than 2250 micro mhos/cm. Only around 22% of the basin area has groundwater with EC levels less than 45 ppm. Further, only 30% of the groundwater underlying the basin has fluoride levels below 1.5 ppm. This essentially means that only very small areas in the basin have groundwater which is potable. As regards suitability of groundwater for irrigation, around 28% of the groundwater underlying the basin area has salinity below the permissible levels for irrigation, i.e., less than 2250 micro mhos (i.e., less than 1500 ppm). In around 46% of the area, groundwater has salinity in the range of 2250–5000 micro mhos (i.e., a TDS in the range of 1500–3350 ppm) (Draft final report, Vol. 3.2, Tahal Consultants: 103–112). This also means that the return flows from irrigation cannot be recovered in many areas for reuse.

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Table 5.1 Groundwater resources in Luni river basin Name of the sub-basin Bandi Bandi (Hemawas) Guhiya Jawai Jojri Khari Khari (hemawas) Luni Luni WRIS Mithari Sagi Sukri Sukri (Sayala) Total for Luni River Basin

Renewable groundwater resources (MCM per annum) 39.46 34.51

Groundwater draft (MCM per annum) 52.72 51.74

Stage of groundwater development (%) 133.6 149.9

Total groundwater stock (MCM) 137.2 16.27

84.18 129.17 116.44 142.73 36.64

120.06 157.73 137.61 140.43 38.98

142.6 122.1 118.2 98.4 106.4

81.97 272.1 522.51 273.24 2.49

571.7 797.82 64.62 80.83 55.5 50.26

633.26 726.54 58.98 148.74 60.77 83.85

110.8 91.1 91.3 184.0 109.5 166.8

3464.76 5084.04 80.7 342.13 29.26 399.2

2203.86

2411.41

109.4

10705.87

Source: Study on Planning of Water Resources of Rajasthan, Draft Final report submitted to SWRPD, GoR, Tahal Consultants, Vol. 3.2, 2c, December 2013

5.4

Basin’s Water Use: The Socio-economic Drivers

Luni river basin has a total population of 74.86 lac people, with a population density of 108 persons per sq. km (source: authors’ own estimates based on data on rural and urban populations in the blocks/districts falling in the basin and the proportion of the geographical area of these administrative units falling inside the basin). Urban population constitutes 36.7% of the total basin population. The economy of the districts falling in the basin is largely agrarian, with crops and livestock farming. Livestock farming is one of the most important economic activities of the region. The total livestock population of the basin is 67.66 lac animal units, nearly 68.6% of which are small ruminants (sheep and goat). Some of the districts in the basin also have industries, with dyeing, chemicals and cement manufacturing. Crop production in the region is mostly rain-fed, with large area under crop production during the monsoon season. However, with access to wells, irrigated crops are also grown in the region. The total irrigated area in the basin including those which are irrigated during the rainy season is only 24.7% of the total cropped area (Table 2). But in lieu of the fact that rainfall variability is very high in the region, in years of monsoon failure, the crops that are grown in the monsoon season, also have to be provided supplementary irrigation. This situation also upsets the region’s

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water balance, as the recharge and streamflows during such years would also be drastically low. The water accounts for the basin would therefore depend heavily on which hydrological year is considered for the analysis. As regards industrial production, Pali and Jodhpur are the two most industrialized of all districts located in the basin. The other districts are Jalore, Barmer and Nagaur. Jodhpur has a total of 24,374 industrial units, of which 15 are large industrial units. There are also 15 medium scale industries, all located close to Jodhpur. Pali has a total of 13,834 registered industries, of which only five are large industries. They consist of two cement industries, one fabric yarn industry, one agro implements industry and one industrial unit for manufacturing bitumen. Jalore has a total of 4510 industrial units, of which only two falls under large and medium category. The industries in the district fall under the following categories: mineral-based industries; agro-based industries; engineering and metal industries; forest-based industries; leather industries; and handloom industries. Barmer has three large and medium industries. In total, it has 2925 industrial units which include small scale industrial units. Most of them are textile industries. The other types of industries are agrobased industries, paper industries, and rubber/plastic industries (source: brief industrial profile of Jodhpur, Pali, Barmer, Jalore and Nagaur, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, Ministry of MSME, Government of India).

5.5

Methodology and Analytical Procedure for Water Accounting

In water accounting for blue water, we can look at: (a) the renewable water resources (annual surface water flows and groundwater replenishment) as the ‘total inflow’ into the basin during a hydrological year; (b) how much is being used up in various consumptive uses during the same year (various outflow); and (c) the ‘balance’, which is in the form of un-utilized water at the drainage outlet of the sub-basin and the changes in groundwater and surface storage occurring during the hydrological year. The outflow is the amount of water that is being used up in various consumptive uses during the year (through evaporation from open water bodies, swamps and ET from crop land and non-recoverable deep percolation), and the ‘net’ of water used by cities and rural areas for domestic and industrial uses minus the ‘return flows’ to the natural system in the form of wastewater. Here, the outflows from cropland would NOT consider the water directly used by the cropland from rainfall (effective precipitation or the green water use by the crop) and would only consider the consumptive use from irrigation of the crops grown during the three seasons. The runoff as part of the total inflow (‘virgin flows’) can be estimated by adding up the ‘observed flows’ and the ‘effective diversion’ by the major reservoirs, other storages and diversion points in the basin. The effective diversion would be the total water diverted from the rivers and tributaries for various purposes minus the

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estimated return flows to the stream. The return flows can be from irrigation commands and urban centres. The ‘total water diverted from rivers and tributaries’ can be estimated using data on reservoir releases, river lifting, reservoir evaporation and the net storage change during the hydrological year. There are 13 major and medium reservoirs in Luni river basin. The water accounts for the basin can be estimated as: INFLOWTOTAL ¼ CUIRRIGATIONþ CURURALDOMESTIC þ CUURBAN þ CULIVESTOCK þ CUINDUSTRY þ EVAPRESERVOIR þ OUTFLOWSTREAM þ GWSCHANGE þ SCRESERVOIR

ð5:1Þ

INFLOWTOTAL ¼ VFLOWSTREAM þ GWRRENEW þ WATERIMPORT

ð5:2Þ

But, virgin flow (VFLOWSTREAM) can be estimated as: VFLOWSTREAM ¼ OUTFLOWSTREAM þ EWD

ð5:3Þ

If we assume that the urban wastewater is reused in agriculture and the return flows from irrigated fields only contribute to groundwater recharge in the command area, return flows from irrigation schemes and urban areas into the streams can be treated as zero. This is normally the case in arid and semi-arid regions. In such situations, the sum of total water released from reservoirs, water lifted from diversion points along the stream/river, evaporation from these water bodies and their annual (+ive) storage change can be treated as EWD. But, in this case, the estimation of renewable recharge should not consider the recharge from command area, as this would lead to double counting. The consumptive use of water in urban area (CUURBAN) can be treated as 80% of the total water supplied to meet the municipal water needs, whereas all the water supplied to meet the rural domestic water needs can be considered as the CURURAL  DOMESTIC. Irrigation includes four components, viz., beneficial evapotranspiration by crops (ET); non-beneficial evaporation from the soil (both from the soil not covered by canopy and the barren soil in the field after crop harvest); non-recoverable deep percolation (also the water flows into saline formations); and return flows to streams or groundwater system, which can be recovered for reuse. How much of the water applied in the field would be available for these components would be determined by the technical efficiency with which water is applied (Allen et al. 1997; Kumar and van Dam 2013). Therefore, consumptive water use from irrigation includes three major components, ET, non-beneficial evaporation, and non-recoverable deep percolation. Irrigation water consumed in crop production ðCUIRRIGATION Þ ¼ A X ½ΔIRRIGATION  fðΔAPPLIED  ETÞ X Fg

ð5:4Þ

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Here, ΔAPPLIED is the sum of irrigation dosage (ΔIRRIGATION ) and total soil moisture available from rainfall (also known as effective rainfall). For purely irrigated crops of winter and summer, the effective rainfall (PEFF) can be assumed to be zero. A is the cropped area. The factor ‘F’ is introduced to take account for the fraction of the total water applied in excess of crop water requirement which is available for reuse. In regions with hyper-arid, arid and semi-arid climatic conditions, non-beneficial soil evaporation, as explained above, can be significant. Again, if the area has deep water table conditions (depth to water table exceeding 100 feet), the deep percolation from the irrigated field might not be recoverable, meaning no return flows to groundwater. Hence, in the case of deep groundwater table conditions, in semi-arid and arid climates, the value of F can be assumed as zero, and in case of very shallow groundwater, the value can be assumed as 1 (one). In the latter case, real water saving from the use of micro-irrigation systems will be negligible. Given the fact that a large part of the basin has arid climatic conditions, and groundwater table is deep, the value of F can be considered as zero, which means the excess water applied in the field would not contribute to groundwater recharge. In other words, the irrigation in excess of the irrigation requirements would be lost in soil evaporation and non-recoverable deep percolation. For using this procedure, the value of depth of irrigation should be known from primary survey. Alternatively, the irrigation application ΔIRRIGATION can be estimated as the difference between ET and effective rainfall of the crop (using FAO CROPWAT model), plus the extra water required to take care of field application efficiency. ΔIRRIGATION ¼ ðET  PEFF Þ=IEAPPLICATION

5.6 5.6.1

ð5:5Þ

Analysis of Basin Water Accounts Estimation of Virgin Flows in Luni River Basin

The time series data on outflows at the last gauging point in the basin, which has a catchment area of 62,228 km2, are available from the integrated hydrological data book of Central Water Commission (2012). First, the virgin flows were estimated for the basin by adding up the outflows from the basin (at Gandhav gauging station), and the total amount of water stored in the eight major and medium reservoirs spread over the basin, during the monsoon period, and not on the basis of the volumetric water releases, the storage changes over the year. This is because the data on the water release from these reservoirs were not available. Hence, in this case, the reservoir evaporation rates are not required to be considered for inflow estimates on the left-hand side of the water accounting formula. But at the same time, such an approach warrants that the estimates of outflow separately consider the evaporation

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from the reservoir. Also, as per this approach the change in storage should consider the water remaining in the reservoirs. The estimated virgin flows vary from 26.33 MCM (during 1972–73, 1987–88 and 2002–03) to 2144.68 MCM (1990–91). The virgin flow with a dependability of 75% is 133.48 MCM and that with 50% dependability is 179.64 MCM.

5.6.2

Estimating Rainfall-Runoff Relationships

2011

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1972

1975

1969

1966

1963

1960

900.00 800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00

1957

Rainfall (mm)

Data on annual rainfall were available for 13 gauging stations in Luni river basin for the period from 1954 to 2012. The weighted average of the rainfall was estimated for these stations for all the years of observation (Fig. 5.2). The mean annual rainfall was estimated to be 414.5 mm. In volumetric terms, this is 25,762 MCM of water. Since the rainfall varies across space in the Luni basin, ideally Thiessen polygon method has to be used. But this is a time-consuming process. Due to time constraints, we have made some approximations. For gauging stations, which are located close to the basin boundary (three of them), a weightage of 0.25 was given whereas for all the remaining 12 stations which was interior a weightage of 1.0 was given. The virgin flows were estimated for the period from 1971–72 to 2009–10 (as discussed in the previous section). The mean annual virgin flow is estimated to be 383.7 MCM. This works out to be 13.5 mm, or 3.26% of the total rainfall in the basin. In order to estimate the rainfall-runoff relationship, which can in turn be used to estimate the runoff or future years and also for smaller catchments in the basin, it is essential to estimate the average annual rainfall for the entire basin for the corresponding period. The rainfall-runoff relationship was estimated to be a power function, indicating higher runoff coefficient for higher rainfall values, or disproportionately higher runoff values for higher values of average annual rainfall. The estimated R square

Fig. 5.2 Weighted average annual rainfall: Luni river basin (1957–2012). (Source: Authors’ estimates based on data from the Rajasthan Water Resources Department)

Annual runoff (MCM)

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y = 0.0016x1.9771 R² = 0.5349

1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0 0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

Average Rainfall (mm) Fig. 5.3 Rainfall-runoff relationship for Luni river basin (1971–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from the Rajasthan Water Resources Department)

value was 0.54, meaning a reasonably good fit. The rainfall-runoff relationship for the basin is graphically presented in Fig. 5.3. It shows that ‘X’ mm of rainfall generates a runoff equal to 0.0016  X1.977 MCM of runoff. These runoff rates are extremely low. There are many reasons for this. First: Nearly 48.5% of the basin is covered by loamy sand and sand. The topography is flat, with less than 1% catchment slope. Second: the climate is hyper-arid to arid and the daily temperature is very high in the basin even during the rainy season and humidity low, which keeps the soil moisture depletion rate high, due to which the infiltration rates remain high even after the first few showers. The infiltrating water eventually gets evaporated due to high temperature, rather than percolating down into the deep strata, as 49,485 km2 of the drainage area (i.e., 71.4%) is barren. Third: the stream channels (fluvial deposits) are important sources of recharge of shallow aquifers (Sinha and Navada 2008), with the result that there is a huge transmission loss reducing the runoff volume (Sharma and Murthy 1998). The total average annual rainfall of the entire Luni river basin for the year 2011–12 was estimated to be 539.6 mm on the basis of rainfall data for 13 gauging stations spread over the basin. The corresponding value for runoff was estimated to be 403 MCM using the above rainfall-runoff model. This is the total amount of renewable surface water resources in Luni basin. While a lot of this water would get captured in the reservoirs built in the upper catchment, some might go un-captured as outflows. However, neither the data on storage nor the data on outflows are available for cross verification. What is unique about the basin’s surface flows is that the entire surface hydrology must have been affected by the large number of water impounding structures. In the absence of these structures, the outflows would not have been higher than what is observed today. This is because of the high transmission loss which can occur in the stream channels. But this also means that under such situations (of no surface water impounding structures in the basin), the groundwater recharge happening in the basin would have been much higher than what the estimates show.

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5.6.3

135

Estimating Replenishable Groundwater

The estimates of annual replenishable groundwater in Luni basin are directly obtained from the report of Tahal Consultants, Vol. 3.2. The assessment was done sub-basin wise. The figures are presented in Table 5.1. The total replenishable groundwater in the basin is 2203 MCM per annum.

5.6.4

Imported Water

Luni river basin receives water from the adjoining regions. The amounts of imported water with different degrees of dependability are given in Table 5.2. The major sources of water import are Indira Gandhi Nahar Project (IGNP) which supplies water to four districts falling in Luni basin, viz., Jaisalmer, Ganganagar, Churu and Barmer, and Sardar Sarovar Project of Gujarat which supplies water to Jalore.

5.6.5

Evaporation from Reservoirs

In arid areas, significant amount of water can be lost in evaporation from reservoirs due to excessive evaporation. There are two major and seven medium reservoirs located in the basin. The evaporation from these reservoirs depends on the number of days for which water remains in the reservoir, and the potential evaporation in the locality concerned during those days and the reservoir water spread area. It can be estimated as: EVAPRESERVOIR ¼

Xm i¼1

RAi X CU  EVAPi

ð5:6Þ

Where CUEi is the cumulative evaporation rate for reservoir, i for the time period for which water remains in it; RAi is the average water spread area of the reservoir, 0i0. It is to be kept in mind that the water spread area of the reservoir would keep declining Table 5.2 Imported water in Luni river basin

Dependability 25% 50% 75% 90% Mean

Volume of water imported (MCM) 569.36 404.31 331.33 240.61 476.61

Source: Study on Planning of Water Resources of Rajasthan, Draft Final report submitted to SWRPD, GoR, Tahal Consultants, Vol. 3.2, 2c, December 2013

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12.00 Jaisalmer

10.00

Pali

8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Jan.

Feb. March April

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Fig. 5.4 Reference evapotranspiration for two locations in Luni river basin. (Source: Authors’ own estimates)

as time progresses and more water is drawn from it, and hence some approximation would be required if this equation is used. The mean potential evaporation (PE) values for Pali varies gradually from 1700 mm in the southern parts of the district to a highest of 2300 mm in the northern parts (source: Water Resource Atlas of Rajasthan), with a mean value of 2000 mm. The mean potential evaporation for Jaisalmer is around 2600 mm. The reference evapotranspiration (Penman) (ET0) values for different months for two locations in the basin are given in Fig. 5.4. It shows that ET0 can be as high as 10 mm in the hottest month of May. The total annual ET0 for Pali is 2066 mm, while the corresponding value for Jaisalmer is 1967 mm. Hence the estimated values of the ratio of PE/ET0 for the two locations are 0.96 and 1.32, respectively. Using these fractions, the monthly PE values for the two locations can be estimated. The estimated monthly PE values for the two locations are given in Table 5.3. It is evident from the table that evaporation rate would be highest during the month of June in Jaisalmer and May in Pali. Based on the inflow data available for the period from 1995–2010, the study by Tahal consultants had estimated reservoir evaporation from 13 reservoir projects in Luni river basin. The total estimated evaporation was 35.61 MCM per year (source: Study on Planning of Water Resources of Rajasthan, Draft Final report submitted to SWRPD, GoR, Tahal Consultants, Vol. 3.2, 2c, December 2013). The total evaporation, as estimated by Tahal Consultants from major, medium and minor irrigation reservoirs, is 35.61 MCM. This is against a total reservoir area of 5930 ha, i.e., 59.3 km2. This constitutes 0.086 percentage of the total basin area. The average evaporation works out to be 0.60 m. The potential evaporation rate during August to January, the time period during which water is generally available in these reservoirs, for Pali and neighbouring districts situated on the eastern part of the basin, where all these reservoirs are located, is around 600 mm. Hence, these values seem to be reliable.

Month Jan 3.41 3.25

Feb 4.64 4.22

March 6.73 6.01

April 9.26 7.73

Source: Rajasthan Water Resources Atlas and IMD data on ET0

Location/Month Jaisalmer Pali

May 11.7 9.48

June 11.80 8.3

Table 5.3 Estimated monthly potential evaporation values for two locations in Luni river basin July 9.17 5.52

Aug 8.00 4.59

Sep 7.54 5.23

Oct 5.80 4.72

Nov 3.95 3.45

Dec 3.13 2.95

5 Planning for Water Resources Management Under Climatic Extremes. . . 137

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Consumptive Water Use Through Irrigation

Since depth of irrigation water applied to the crops is not available for any of the crops grown in the region, we have used the FAO CROPWAT to estimate irrigation water requirement and assumed a factor of 1.25 to arrive at irrigation water application, which is to provide allowance for consumptive uses which are non-beneficial—non-beneficial evaporation and non-recoverable deep percolation (Allen et al. 1997). This should not be confused with field application efficiency in irrigation, which can be much lower for surface irrigation in the basin, but can be accepted as a working methodology, as we are ultimately concerned with estimating consumptive water use, and we treat the irrigation water application (ΔIRRIGATION) as the consumptive use (meaning zero return flows from the irrigated field). For this reason, while doing the estimation, the return flow fraction (F) is assumed as zero, irrespective of the method of irrigation. The total consumptive water use in irrigation is estimated by multiplying the depth of irrigation with the area under the crop concerned, for the year 2011–12. The estimates of crop wise consumptive water use for irrigation are presented in Table 5.4 for kharif and winter crops. The total water consumption in agriculture is estimated to be 2404.4 MCM during the year 2011–12. Castor is the largest consumer of irrigation water in the basin (733 MCM), followed by wheat, which consumes around 497 MCM. Castor, while sown during the kharif season lasts for most parts of the winter season.

5.6.7

Domestic Water Use in Luni Basin

Luni is an absolutely water-scarce basin. There is very little imported water in the basin, except in Jodhpur city which receives water from IGNP for its municipal water supply. The rural areas depend on groundwater sources, mostly open wells. During drought years, these wells go dry and only the tube wells function. The rural communities face water shortage for domestic uses. We have therefore assumed a per capita daily water use of 50 lpcd for domestic uses in the region. After Gleick (1996), this is also the basic minimum required for survival. For non-metros with planned sewage, we have assumed 135 lpcd (like Jodhpur). For small towns without planned sewage (such as Barmer, Nagaur, Pali), we have assumed a per capita water consumption of 70 lpcd. This is as per the recommendation in the 12th Plan document for small towns without a centralized sewerage system. From water accounting point of view, though a large share (80–90%) of this water would be available as domestic effluent (wastewater return flow), it may get depleted in the local sinks (ponds, natural depressions, etc.), and hence is not accounted for separately. However, in the case of Jodhpur, a wastewater return flow of 80% is assumed. This means, the actual consumptive water use would be only 20% of the total of

Crops Winter season Wheat Barley S. millets Gram Green peas Masur Other rabi pulses Rapeseed & mustard Fennel Potato Cumin Isabgol Monsoon season Sorghum Pearl millet Maize Green Gram Moth Chaula Groundnut Soya bean Castor Sesame

23.7 8457.5 1.1 4.8 155.8 0.0 1276.1 0.0 68281.6 2.1

0.0 0.6 84.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 642.5 1.2 482.5 0.0

97.0 4404.1 114.4 192.8 31.0 13.8 21782.7 0.0 495917.4 11.2

84.7 20318.9 3.9 903.1 434.3 6.9 45602.5 0.0 48044.8 212.5

71.7 5798.9 13.8 255.1 6.1 3.5 4812.9 0.0 667.8 19.7

25631.0 4298.6 0.0 3886.6 435.9 0.0 0.0 13374.5 5807.8 0.0 8929.4 11001.6

35814.3 138.8 1.2 563.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 47887.2 1785.5 0.0 20201.0 14281.3

12161.8 20.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8850.7 12.6 0.0 46313.6 40710.5

37330.4 9840.7 0.0 668.8 0.0 8.5 97.3 15616.7 563.7 0.0 4246.0 13.4

113566.6 1521.1 1908.3 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 184529.9 8068.3 833.5 138891.5 88216.4

Nagaur

Consumptive water use in irrigation (in 0000 cubic metres) Ajmer Barmer Jalore Jodhpur

Table 5.4 Estimated consumptive water use in irrigation in Luni river basin

0.0 4.8 1415.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10312.4 0.0

203177.3 14895.2 0.0 21667.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 149652.6 2462.6 0.0 21997.5 3087.0

Pali

0.0 29.8 211.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 9538.2 0.0 109283.7 0.0

70094.8 2074.0 1059.6 2445.3 0.0 0.0 62.2 34436.7 3529.3 1788.5 3273.0 266.7

Sirohi

(continued)

277.0 39014.7 1844.6 1355.8 627.2 24.1 83654.9 1.2 732990.1 245.5

497776.1 32788.3 2969.1 29235.1 435.9 15.2 159.5 454348.3 22229.8 2622.0 243852.1 157576.9

Overall

5 Planning for Water Resources Management Under Climatic Extremes. . . 139

Consumptive water use in irrigation (in 0000 cubic metres) Ajmer Barmer Jalore Jodhpur 6946.6 8.3 4009.8 18922.5 1349.8 77.7 3699.0 3408.2 6.375 14.28 14.79 1321.41 77899.375 186375.98 1067830.39 259936.21 Nagaur 19108.9 112.0 77.775 104313.575

Source: Authors’ own estimates based on FAO CROPWAT and secondary data on agricultural land use

Crops Cotton Chillies Cluster bean Total in MCM

Table 5.4 (continued) Pali 30451.2 5336.0 12.75 464472.25

Sirohi 4598.7 919.9 5.1 243,617

Overall 84045.8 14902.6 1452.48 2404444.78

140 M. Dinesh Kumar et al.

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135 lpcd. The remaining water would get accounted for in irrigated agriculture, as most of the city’s wastewater would get diverted for irrigation in peripheral areas. Rural domestic water demand in the basin was estimated considering a minimum water requirement of 50 litres per person per day (lpcd) which is considered to be the basic water requirement for meeting human needs (Gleick 1996). For estimation of rural population, total population in each district was adjusted as per the proportion of its geographical area falling in the basin. As per the estimates, the overall domestic water demand (rural) in Luni river basin is about 86.5 MCM. The norms suggested for water supply in the 12th Five Year Plan document were: (1) 135 lpcd for urban areas where piped water supply and underground sewerage systems are available; and (2) 70 lpcd for urban areas provided with piped water supply but without underground sewerage system. In view of the fact that Luni is a scarce river basin, we have considered roughly the mean of the two figures (which comes out to be around 100 lpcd) as the domestic water use in urban areas. Urban population was estimated based on the number of cities and towns falling in the basin. As per the estimates, the overall domestic water demand (urban) in Luni river basin is about 120.3 MCM. Twenty per cent of this (i.e., 24.06 MCM) can be treated as consumptive water use, and the remaining 80% will be available for irrigation in the peri-urban and rural areas.

5.6.8

Livestock Water Use in the Basin

Livestock water use in the basin was estimated by the following the indicative figures of voluntary water consumption per tropical livestock unit (TLU) for different categories of livestock (as suggested by Pallas 1986), and the average body weight of different categories of livestock found in the region. Here, were have considered an average body weight of 400 kg for buffaloes and cross-bred cows, 250 kg for indigenous cows, 25 kg for goat/sheep and 450 for camels. The estimated total water use for livestock production is 46.41 MCM per annum (source: authors’ own analysis based on secondary data on weather parameters (IMD), FAO online catalogue on water for animals, based on P. Pallas (1986) and livestock population as per 2007 livestock census). As regards the break up, small ruminants which constitute 66% of the total livestock population, account for only 18.3% of the total water use by livestock. Cattle account for nearly 33% of the total livestock water use. Buffaloes account for 46.3% of the total livestock water use in the basin.

5.6.8.1

Industrial Water Use in Luni River Basin

Since no estimates are available on the manufacturing output for various industrial sub-sectors for the districts in the basin, industrial water use in Luni basin was

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estimated on the basis of the consideration that on a per capita basis, the basin would require a minimum of 20 m3 of water per annum for manufacturing.3 Hence water use during 2011–12 (m3) was estimated on the basis of population of the basin as per Census 2011 as: CUINDUSTRY,LUNI ¼ POPLUNI X 20 ¼ 149:73 MCM

5.6.9

Summary of Water Accounts

For the final water accounts for the blue water in Luni river basin (for the year 2011–12), we have compared the total inflows and the total outflows. The total outflow is exclusive of reservoir evaporation. The difference between the two should be equal to the sum of reservoir storage change, evaporation from the reservoir and the total stream channel outflow. The total of change in storage and (stream) outflow was estimated to be 309 MCM in 2011–12. The year considered for the study was a wet year and it is quite likely that the basin had some outflows in that year. The total blue water inflow in the basin during the year was 2843.6 MCM. Of these, the internal renewable water resource is 2606.86 MCM. This is from a total rainfall of 33,577 MCM. The remaining water is lost in soil evaporation from the large tracts of barren land (a total 48,750 km2), ET from the purely rain-fed crops of kharif season, which covered an area of 18,520 km2 (18.52 lac ha) and the trees and other natural vegetation in the basin. The total outflow (depletion) was estimated to be 2741.3 MCM in 2011–12, of which consumptive water use for irrigation alone was 2404 MCM. Change in groundwater stock was 207.55 MCM. Though the figures of ‘change in storage’ appear to be excessively high, this could be because the figures of imported water are quite tentative. It is quite likely that the during a good rainfall year like 2011–12, less amount of water had been imported into the basin for irrigation purpose from SSP and IGNP, resulting in very little discharge from drainage outlet of the basin. Since the discharge data for Luni river was not available for the year for which the water accounting exercise was carried out (i.e., 2011–12), the inflow and outflows figures could not be tallied to cross-check the figures of outflows, i.e., surface water outflow + water remaining in the reservoirs.

3 This is based on the estimates for industrial water demand in India for the year 2010 (Kumar 2010), which indicates an average per capita water demand of 20 m3 for industrial uses.

5 Planning for Water Resources Management Under Climatic Extremes. . .

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District IWRM Planning

5.7.1

Challenges of District IWRM Planning

Five key issues to be explored in district level IWRM planning are the following: • Intra-basin water transfers, i.e., the movement of water from the district under question to other parts of the basin, which are relatively ‘water-scarce’ • Water imports from other parts of the basin, which are ‘relatively water rich’ to the district • Multi-annual storage of water in the basin through reservoirs, to store water in excess-rainfall years for supply in low-rainfall years • Limits to water resource augmentation instead of continuing to build such schemes; and • Transfer of water savings, i.e., ‘saving water’ from areas where opportunities for demand reduction are higher, for release to parts of the basin facing severe water deficits. The next sections analyses the different components of water demand, i.e., for irrigation, domestic and institutional uses, livestock and industry, and then the available sources of water supply, before analysing demand-supply gaps, and how they can be addressed.

5.7.2

Analysing Water Demand in the District

While it is rather easy to estimate the existing supplies from the available sources, the estimation of potential water supplies to meet the future demand is one of the most complex issues involved in district IWRM planning. This is because of the complex dynamics of interaction between upper and lower catchments, and surface and groundwater. Due to these interactions, water development in the upper catchment can influence water availability in lower catchments and change in water use efficiency improvements in one part of the basin can affect surface or groundwater availability downstream, though with time lapse. Therefore, in water balance studies required for district IWRM planning, it is important to carry out water assessments using basin as the unit of analysis, as it integrates the complex interactions discussed above.

5.7.2.1

Irrigation Water Demand

Irrigation water demand estimation should be done for typical rainfall years, i.e., wet years, dry years and normal rainfall years, to account for the variations in water demand rates and the areas under irrigated crops between years. Given irrigation

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water demand data for each irrigated crop, including the rain-fed crops which receive supplementary irrigation during drought years, the irrigation water requirement for crop k at time t is calculated as follows: ΔIRRIGATION,k,t ¼ðETk PEFF,

k,t Þ

=IEAPPLICATION

ð5:7Þ

where IEAPPLICATION is water application efficiency for the irrigated field, expressed as a fraction, for which a reasonable assumption can be made, depending on the irrigation method. Equation 5.7 suggests that the irrigation demand for the same crop could be different for different years and for different seasons within the same year. Also, irrigation water requirements for rain-fed crops would become significant in drought years, while it might be nil during wet and normal years, depending on the crop duration. The total water demand (TWD) for irrigation can now be estimated as: ¼

Xn n Ak, t ½ΔIRRIGATION,k,t  k¼1 k

ð5:8Þ

Where ΔIRRIGATION , k, t is the amount of irrigation water dosage to the crop k in year t; n is the total number of crops in the region; Ak, t is the area under crop k after a time of t years.4 Given that a growing population would cause the demand for agricultural output to increase in the district (and the basin as a whole), there would be greater pressure to increase the area under irrigation. One way to incorporate this in the agricultural water demand estimation is to keep the total cropped area (of individual crops) per unit of population for future years at the same level as that of the present. This means that population growth would be the main driver of agricultural water demand growth, and total future irrigation water demand A ¼ ΔAPPLICATION. Total water demand for irrigation can be projected n years into the future as follows: TWDIRRIGATION,t x ð1 þ ∅Þn

ð5:9Þ

where t ¼ 0 (year), ∅ ¼annual compound growth rate of the population (fraction), n is the numbers of years. If we are considering 2025 as the year for demand projections, n will be 14. While estimating irrigation water demand, losses in non-recoverable deep percolation and soil evaporation have been considered. It has been assumed however that there is no percolation that contributes to return flows to groundwater systems or stream channels, given the arid climate and geohydrology of most of Pali district. Note that, in a strict theoretical sense, the ‘total consumptive water use’ in crop production is different from ‘total water applied’ and ‘total water applied to the crop’ is also different from ‘irrigation dosage’. Please see Annex 2 in James and Kumar (2019) for details.

4

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Table 5.5 Crop water demand, Pali district, 2011–12

Season Rabi

Crop Wheat Rapeseed & mustard Cumin Gram Barley Total Kharif Cotton Castor Chillies Maize Total Annual total

Area under crop (ha) 47,922 34,880 14,665 6419 4163 6261 1307 464 462

Crop water requirement (MCM) 162.54 119.72

Crop water usea (MCM) 203.18 149.65

% to total Agricultural water use in season 49% 36%

17.6 17.34 11.92 333.55 24.36 8.25 4.27 1.14 38.03 371.58

22 21.67 14.9 416.94 30.45 10.31 5.34 1.42 47.54 464.48

5% 5% 4% 100% 64% 22% 11% 3% 100%

Source: Authors’ analysis based on FAO CROPWAT and secondary data on agricultural land use Including non-beneficial evaporation and non-recoverable deep percolation

a

The values of consumptive water use in irrigation and current irrigation water demand (amount to be applied in the field) work out to be same as a result, although they are conceptually different. Available data from 2011–12 shows that what and mustard used 86% of the 417 MCM of water used by rabi crops while, among kharif crops, irrigated cotton uses most (64%) of the 48 MCM used during the season (Table 5.5). While estimating the irrigation demand at site, ΔIRRIGATION , t after n years, efficiency improvements can be assumed, which will affect TWD for irrigation as follows: TWDIRRIGATION,t X ð1 þ ∅Þn x

IEAPPLICATION,CURRENT IEAPPLICATION,FUTURE

ð5:10Þ

In the current estimation, water application efficiency is assumed to improve from 80% to 90%, over the 13-year period till 2025, which reduces the annual per capita agricultural water demand from 228 m3 in 2012 in to 202.7 m3 in 2025. The total agricultural water demand for 2025 was estimated using the projected population of the district, i.e., 2.384 million persons (based on an estimated annual compounded growth rate of 1.13%.) to be 483.3 MCM.

5.7.2.2

Domestic Water Demand

Per capita domestic water demand is not likely to vary much between years, with variation in climate, and hence it is reasonable to assume that the per capita water

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demand rate remains the same within shorter time horizons. A change in per capita income could however drive up domestic water demand and this assumption should therefore be modified for longer time durations as the impacts could be significant. Here, domestic water demand considers only water demand for drinking and cooking, washing and sanitation (bathing and toilet use). Per capita domestic water demand ¼ ð1 þ ∅Þn x ∂ x 365=1000

ð5:11Þ

where ∂ is the average daily per capita domestic water use (in litres) and∅ is the income elasticity of domestic water demand (expressed as a ratio of the increase in domestic water demand per annum against a 1% increase in per capita annual income). Assuming a per capita water demand of 70 lpcd in rural areas and 140 lpcd for urban areas, and an estimated rural population of 1.813 million persons and urban population of 0.578 million persons, the 2025 demand for water for domestic uses in rural and urban areas was estimated to be 46.33 MCM and 29.52 MCM, respectively. This represents a total domestic water demand of 75.85 MCM for Pali district in 2025.

5.7.2.3

Livestock Water Demand

Livestock water demand for direct consumption is a function of the animal body weight, feed,5 ingested salt, lactation, ambient temperature and an animal’s genetic adaptation to its environment. The amount of water required by a unit of livestock for direct consumption increases with an increase in daily dry matter intake (kg) and, in the case of milch animals, the average daily milk yield (litres), as well. Accordingly, small ruminants such as goat and sheep require less water as compared to large livestock such as camels, buffaloes and cows. Lactating animals would however require more water for consumption than dry animals. For example, indicative water intake by dairy cows could be estimated by the following equation (after Pallas 1986): Y ¼ 16:0 þ 0:71 i þ 0:41 m þ 0:05 S þ 1:2 T

ð5:12Þ

where Y is the daily water intake (in litres assuming l litre of water weights 1 kg), where i is the daily dry matter feed intake (kg/day), m is the daily milk production (kg/day), S is the sodium intake (g/day) and T is the mean weekly minimum temperature. Indicative water requirements for different types of livestock (per tropical livestock unit or TLU) are in Table 5.6, which also gives normal figures of animal body weight and the TLU they constitute. Actual water requirements of these livestock

5

This is a function of animal body weight.

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Table 5.6 Indicative water requirements for different types of livestock

Livestock type Camel Cattle Sheep Goat Donkey

Mean live weight (Kg) 410 180 25 25 105

Tropical livestock units per head 1.60 0.70 0.10 0.10 0.40

Daily dry matter intake Kg Kg/TLU 9 5.60 5 7.00 1 10.00 1 10.00 3 7.50

Voluntary daily water intake by season and average temperature (litre/TLU) Wet Dry Dry, hot 9.4 21.9 31.3 14.3 27.1 38.6 20.0 40.0 50.0 20.0 40.0 50.0 5.0 27.4 40.0

Source: FAO online catalogue on water for animals, based on Pallas (1986)

need to be worked out based on the actual body weight of the animals, by using the voluntary daily water intake for that category of animal per TLU. For instance, for a buffalo with a body weight of 400 kg, the water requirement would be 38.6 (per unit of cattle)  400/250, i.e., 77.2 litres per day. Future livestock water demand can be estimated using the observed past annual compounded growth rate of livestock population for each category of livestock, and the population. The total livestock water use in Pali district was estimated to be 7.87 m3 per annum in 2007 (the latest year for which data on livestock population were available). Assuming that in the future that per capita livestock, the size of holding, the composition of livestock, and water use efficiency in livestock and dairy production remain the same, and hence using only population as a driver of livestock water demand projection, the total water demand for livestock in Pali district for 2025 was estimated to be 18.774 MCM, using the following calculation: TWDLIVESTOCK 2025 ¼ Per capita livestock water use2007  Population2007  ð1:0113Þ^ 18

5.7.2.4

ð5:13Þ

Industrial Water Demand

The major industries of Pali district are cement plants, textile industries and small industries. But, in Luni basin, there is a thermal power plant (located near Barmer), having a capacity of 250 MW. The total water consumed in thermal power plants for one hour of operations (i.e. for 1 MW of power generated) is in the range of 3.5 m3 per MW of installed capacity. This however is only 10% of the total water required for various uses in thermal power plants. The water requirement for different types of industries, excluding thermal power plants was taken from GOI (1999).

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The total water demand for industrial production can be estimated based on the total volume of production and the water consumption per unit of production. Total industrial water demand per annum can be estimated as ðTWDINDUSTRY Þ ¼

n X

VPRODUCTION, i X ∅i

ð5:14Þ

i¼1

where VPRODUCTION, i is the volume of production for the industry type i and ∅i is the water consumption per unit of production for industry type i. Given the water consumption per unit of production for any of the 17 industrial types (i.e., from Table 3) and, the total volume of output for that industry is known, the annual water demand can be calculated. Unfortunately, however, data on the quantum of industrial outputs produced (like the total amount of cement, textiles, chemicals, etc.) under each manufacturing type are not available for the districts falling in the basin. An alternative approach had therefore to be used, taking estimates of total industrial water demand for India (available in Kumar (2010) for the period from 2000 to 2025). This gives a total industrial water demand in the country in 2010 of 23.955 BCM, and an average per capita industrial water demand for the country of 19.5 m3 per annum. Noting that Seckler et al. (1998) used a per capita industrial water demand of 40 m3 per annum for the work on global water supply-demand estimates, a modest figure of 20 m3 per capita has been assumed for Pali district. Total industrial water demand for 2025 was thus estimated to be 47.7 MCM.

5.7.2.5

Total Water Demand

The total water demand in Pali district is estimated to be 570.53 MCM in 2011 and projected to rise to 625.62 MCM by 2025 (Table 5.7).

5.7.3

Utilizable Water Supplies

Arriving at a district IWRM plan requires balancing all water demands within the district against the utilizable supplies from various surface and groundwater sources. Not all the water available in a basin or administrative unit can be utilized, whether surface water or groundwater. The first task therefore is to get reliable data on utilizable surface and groundwater. Estimating streamflows based on simple rainfall-runoff relations can lead to large errors when the inter-annual variability in rainfall is excessively high and that the runoff coefficient itself changes drastically with quantum of rainfall. In many arid tropics, assessing surface runoff in small river basins is a difficult task, as these basins are not gauged. One reason for this lack of attention to small basins is that

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Table 5.7 Current and projected sectoral water demands (MCM) Sector Irrigated agriculture Per capita irrigation water demand (m3 per annum) Rural domestic Per capita (domestic): lpcd Urban domestic (MCM) Per capita (urban domestic) Industry Per capita industrial water demand Livestock Per capita livestock water use Total

Water use at site (2011) 464.56 228.00 28.80 50.0 20.10 100.0 41.04 20 m3/annum 16.03 7.87 m3/annum 570.53

Demand in 2025 483.30 202.67 46.33 70.00 29.52 140.00 47.70 18.774 625.62

Source: Authors’ own estimates based on Seckler et al. (1998); Kumar (2010); and Census 2001 and Census 2011, and analysis of secondary data, FAO CROPWAT estimates of crop PET

most of these rivers are ephemeral and, in most years, do not have any discharge. The Luni river basin has only two gauging points, maintained by the Central Water Commission (CWC), at Balotra and Gandhav both of which fall outside Pali district. An alternative approach is needed therefore to estimate surface water availability. One approach involves estimating runoff from rainfall data using the US Soil Conservation Bureau’s curve number method, which uses rainfall infiltration rates, based on the soil type, vegetation cover of the soil and the antecedent moisture. Since the daily rainfall data is available for a large number of stations within the district, runoff for each rainfall event occurring during the monsoon in a year can be estimated using data on land use and land cover available for the area, corresponding to each year. The streamflow series can thus be generated using the historical data of rainfall and land use for each year, the dependability curve for the runoff can be estimated using these data, and ‘dependable yield’ from the catchment can be worked out corresponding to different degrees of dependability. The rainfall-runoff relationship can be estimated, based on the estimated streamflow series and the weighted average of the annual rainfall, for areas with similar rainfall pattern, land use, soil and climate in the basin or adjoining basins. The other approach is to estimate the rainfall-runoff relation for the ‘basin as a whole’ using the ‘estimated annual virgin flows for the basin’, and the annual (spatial) average rainfall, and subsequently applying the same for the district of Pali, for the rainfall it receives in each year. Virgin flow VF ¼ RUNOFFOBSERVED þ WDEFFECTIVE . . . . . . . . . . . .

ð5:15Þ

Where WDEFFECTIVE is the effective water diversion, or the total amount of water diverted from the main channel and tributaries in the basin, through various water impounding structures, which is the sum of the water releases from reservoirs to meet various demands, water evaporated from the reservoirs and the water remaining

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in storages at the end of the year from the impounded water, minus the return flows from various demand sites to the stream channels. For river basins such as Luni, there are several small water harvesting structures in Pali district and other districts of the basin, which are in the upper catchment areas. While estimating virgin flows, it is important to account for the water impounded by these structures. Though these small water bodies generally do not divert any water for any uses, some water percolates from these reservoirs and a significant amount of water evaporates. Therefore, if data are available, it would be advisable to incorporate this in the estimation of virgin flows. The average annual rainfall of the basin can be estimated by taking the weighted average of the point rainfalls using the Thiessen polygon method as the rainfall gradient across the basin is not very sharp. However, when the gradient of isohyets is sharp, the area between two rainfall isohyets should be estimated and multiplied by the average of the rainfall values represented by the isohyets. The utilizable yield is to be calculated from the dependable yield. This would depend on the topographical conditions and the technology used for harnessing water, but the actual amount of water that can be tapped depends on the committed flows downstream. For instance, although the district catchment might have a dependable yield of ‘X’ MCM per annum, there could be a reservoir downstream of the catchment (designed for a dependable yield of 0.50 X) but falling outside the district boundary, which depends on inflows received from the upper catchment. This means that the total amount of water that can be utilized from the district catchment would only be just half the total dependable yield of the district catchment. A further possible reduction is on account of conveyance losses (please see Annex 3 in James and Kumar (2019) for details). To estimate the surface water potential in the district, the rainfall-runoff relationship estimated for the basin is used in conjunction with the average of the mean annual rainfall values for the rain-gauges of Pali district. First, from point rainfall data from nine rain-gauge stations in Pali, the weighted average of the rainfall was estimated for 41 years for which data were used (1971–2012) – which shows considerable variability (Fig. 2) from a lowest of 136.1 mm in 1987 to 779.6 mm in 1973. Next, the rainfall probability curve was estimated to map rainfall with a probability of occurrence of 3 in 4 years (75% probability of occurrence) and 6 in 10 years (60% probability). Finally, rainfall with dependability of occurrence of 75% was estimated to be 318 mm and that with dependability of 60% was estimated to be 355 mm, but the average rainfall of 2011–12 (639.77 mm) was used however to estimate the utilizable runoff from the district as 109.26 MCM. Groundwater resources in western Rajasthan occur mostly in alluvial and sedimentary formations. All this water can be safely abstracted, as the groundwater flow gradients in the region are not steep and the groundwater outflows into natural streams are insignificant. In addition to the renewable groundwater resources, the region also has significant amount of static groundwater resources. Estimates of total

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amount of renewable groundwater resources in the district are readily available, as are data on the total amount of groundwater resources in the basin.6 Groundwater resources in both Luni basin and Pali district are fully developed at present (Rolta report). The wells and water abstraction devices available in the district of Pali can pump out more groundwater than what is permissible under sustainability considerations – as evidenced by current abstraction rates prevailing in the basin and the district. If further depletion of groundwater is stopped, in deference to the sustainable development criteria, the amount of groundwater that can be tapped from the aquifers of the region would be just equal to or less than the renewable groundwater resources. The total groundwater stock in the basin is around 10,500 MCM, in addition to an annual renewable groundwater resource of 2000 MCM. Pali district also has some groundwater stock. Therefore, if long-term sustainability of the aquifer is allowed to be compromised and aquifers allowed to deplete at the current rate, the amount of groundwater that can be tapped for various uses in Pali district and Luni basin would be equal to the current rate of withdrawal. Permissible level of abstraction ¼ GWABSTRACT, ANNUAL ¼ GWRRENEWABLE, ANNUAL   GWSTOCK þ n

ð5:16Þ

where n is the number of years for which the aquifer can be pumped at the current rate; GWSTOCK is the total groundwater stock; and GWRRENEWABLE, ANNUAL is the annual groundwater recharge. Estimating the available renewable groundwater requires an understanding of the groundwater balance, with inflows and outflows. Annual groundwater replenishment (groundwater inflow) in an area can have three components: 1. Recharge directly from precipitation and from local water storage structures 2. Recharge from local water bodies after the monsoon season, when natural recharge from rainfall becomes negligible; and 3. Artificial recharge from recharge schemes. Groundwater outflows during monsoons include pumping during the season, the net of lateral inflows and outflows (outflow-inflow). The basis for the estimation of groundwater balance is the change in storage, which can be measured through water level fluctuations. The groundwater balance equation can thus be written as: ΔSTORAGE ¼ RECHMONSOON þ ðINFLOW LATERAL  OUTFLOW LATERAL Þ  PUMPMONSOON ð5:17Þ ΔSTORAGE ¼ WLF POSTPRE X Sy

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ð5:18Þ

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where WLFPOST  PRE is the difference in depth to water level between pre-monsoon and post-monsoon periods and ΔSTORAGE is the net storage change during monsoon. Given the topography of the study area, lateral flows can be significant and hence are considered in the estimation of net recharge. RECHMONSOON ¼ WLF POSTPRE X Sy þ PUMPMONSOON

ð5:19Þ

Note that since whatever recharge occurs from the surface water bodies during June to October is already captured in the water level fluctuation in the wells, there is no need to estimate separately the recharge from water bodies for the monsoon season. Note also that RECHMONSOON as defined in Eq. 5.19 includes recharge from natural water bodies and artificial recharge schemes and thus, to estimate the recharge from rainfall alone (Components 1 & 2 above), the artificial recharge component will have to be segregated.7 Available estimates of utilizable groundwater resources in Pali district show that the gross groundwater draft exceeds the annual recharge by 68 MCM annually in the district (Table 5.8). Table 5.8 Block-wise estimates of static and dynamic groundwater resources of Pali (2005–09) Name of the block Pali Desuri Jaitaram Marwar Junction Pali Raipur Rani Rohat Sojat Sumerpur Total

Net groundwater availability (MCM) 38.63 22.65 53.91 38.01

Gross groundwater draft (MCM) 45.95 28.67 72.95 55.86

Static groundwater resources (MCM) 5.01 2.70 11.63 6.71

8.48 20.22 28.08 5.96 30.97 32.51 279.42

7.63 27.25 31.56 5.56 40.3 31.72 347.45

1.25 3.78 2.94 0.68 5.63 7.44 47.77

Source: Study on Planning of Water Resources Planning of Rajasthan, Draft Final Report submitted to the State Water Resources Planning Dept., Government of Rajasthan, December 2013, Vol. 3.2, 2c

7

To estimate the recharge from artificial recharge structures, a new method (double difference) has to be employed, wherein the water level fluctuation in two localities (receiving almost the same amount of rainfall) – one WITH recharge structure and the other WITHOUT the recharge structures – are considered and the difference in the average (pre and post monsoon) water level fluctuation taken. This is to nullify the effect of natural recharge on water levels and disaggregate the effect of the structures. The same approach can be used to estimate the recharge from the structures post monsoon.

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Though the block-wise estimates of static groundwater resources for Pali show a very modest figure of 47.77 MCM for the whole district, the estimates based on basin and sub-basin wise figures of groundwater resources show a much higher figure of 1242.88 MCM. Given that the rainfall of Pali district is comparatively higher than that of the rest of Luni basin, and that most of Pali district is underlain by deep alluvial formations, the latter figures appear to be more realistic, and therefore used. As per the 2009 estimates of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), the net utilizable groundwater resources in Pali district is 302.06 (break up not available), considering the recharge during non-monsoon period and groundwater discharge (GOI 2011). Since these are more recent estimates (done for 2009), they have been used in the present analysis. The total utilizable water resources that can be used to meet the demands in the district (based on 2011–12 estimates) are 411.29 MCM, per annum (Table 5.9). While around 75% of the 411 MCM of total annual renewable water supplies are groundwater, Pali also has around 1240 MCM of static fresh groundwater resources.

5.7.4

Balancing Demand and Supply

District IWRM planning involves deciding on a variety of water management interventions in water supply (water resource development, water imports etc.) and water demand (water use efficiency improvement plans) in the district, so that future demands for water in the district – at the aggregate level and for individual sectors – can be met from utilizable future water supplies. While future water supplies can come from either within the district or from outside the district (but within the basin), interventions for water use efficiency improvements must come from within the district. This should, however, be done such that the integrity of the hydrological system (aquifers, streamflows) is not threatened in the long run, while simultaneously ensuring that there are no undesirable consequences for uses and users in other parts of the basin. It is, therefore, necessary that the analysis is done at both spatial and temporal scales, where the different types of interactions of the hydrological system and the interaction between hydrological system and water use systems are well integrated in the analysis of demand and supply balances.8 Based on the estimated future supply-demand balance for water in the district, the nature and degree of water problems, in terms of both quantity and quality, can be identified. Against the total renewable water availability of 411.3 MCM in 2011–12, the district consumed around 465 MCM of water for irrigation alone, nearly 90% of which is during the winter rabi (winter) season (Table 5.10). Table 10 shows that

8 The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system is a user-friendly water balance model that can be used for water resource assessment and basin planning. The water supply-demand balance for any geographical unit can be set up using WEAP model, and the same can be integrated into the basin in which the district falls.

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Table 5.9 Available water supplies from surface and underground sources Water source Surface water (2011–12) Groundwater (average) Total water resources

Renewable supplies per annum (MCM) 109.26

Static fresh groundwater resources in Pali district (MCM)#

302.03

1242.88

411.29

Source: Authors’ own estimates based on the available estimates of static groundwater resources of sub-basins, falling partly and fully in Pali district Table 5.10 Agricultural water demand and water availability, Pali district, 2011–12 (MCM)

Total renewable water availability Groundwater resources 109 Surface water runoff 302 Total water demand Total agricultural water demand Rabi irrigation 417 Kharif irrigation 48 Total domestic water demand Total livestock water demand Total industrial water demand Demand-availability gap

411

570 465

48.90 16.03 41.04 159

Source: Authors’ own estimates

agricultural water demand is more than 80% of total water demand and that the total water demands in the domestic, industrial and livestock sectors leave a demandsupply gap of 159 MCM. Since water demand is projected to increase to around 625 MCM by 2025 (Table 4), and assuming no change in supplies, the current gap of 159.20 MCM will also increase to 214.30 MCM by 2025. Some potential interventions to meet the deficit are discussed below.

5.8

Water Management Interventions at the District Level

As the analysis has shown, there is little scope to eliminate the demand-availability gap in Pali district by reducing either domestic or industrial water consumption, as the overall water consumption in these sectors is much lower than that in agriculture – which is around 80% of total water demand (Table 5.7). Beyond the basic minimum of restricting further increases in irrigated area to stop further increases in agricultural water demand, three options to close the 2025 deficit are the following: (1) expand micro-irrigation and mulching; (2) restrict further increases in irrigated area; and (3) mine static groundwater reserves.

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Expanding Area Under Micro-irrigation and Mulching

Our estimates show that if all the crops that are amenable to drip irrigation are covered under this irrigation technology in the entire district, the impact in terms of reduction in water demand would be around 22 MCM (Table 5.11). The analysis assumes that (1) all the water used for irrigation (which is only 10% higher than the ET demand) eventually gets depleted and (2) the use of drip irrigation for these row crops reduces non-beneficial evaporation (of water from the soil not covered by canopy) and non-recoverable deep percolation, thereby achieving ‘real or wet water saving’.9 Plastic mulching on water use in rain-fed kharif crops can give a potential ‘green water’ saving of nearly 30 MCM per annum, given the current cropping pattern (Table 5.12).10 Even with the combined savings of around 52 MCM, however, Pali will not be able to meet all its domestic and productive water requirements from the available, renewable water resources in the basin – though there could be around 33% and 25%

Table 5.11 Potential impact of drip irrigation on row crops in Pali district (100% coverage): 2011–12

Crop Castor Cotton Chillies Fennel Total

Irrigated area (ha) 1307 6261 464 1003 9035

Total water use under traditional method of irrigation (‘000 m3) 10,312 30,451 5336 2462

Extent of reduction in water use (%) 22 51 69 30

Reduction in irrigation water use (MCM) 2.25 15.50 3.69 0.73 22.17

Source: Based on Kumar (2010) and INCID (1994)

Table 5.12 Impact of plastic mulching on rain-fed crops in Pali district (2011–12) Crop Maize Groundnut Castor Cotton Cluster bean Overall

Irrigated area (ha) 17,622 1353 9548 990 30,320 59,833

Effective increase in water availability (MCM) 8.81 4.80 0.50 0.68 15.20 29.92

Source: Based on Xie et al. (2005)

9

Seckler (1996) details he distinction between real water saving and notional water saving. Note, only crops with distant spacing between plants and between rows have been considered, and not crops such as wheat, pearl millet, sorghum and maize. 10

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Table 5.13 Water management scenarios for the district: 2011–25 Gap between demand and renewable, annual utilizable supplies Under the ‘base case’ scenario With drip irrigation technology (for row crops) With plastic mulching (for rainy season crops) & drip irrigation

Demand-supply gap 2011 2025 159 214 192 162

Source: Authors’ own estimates

reduction in the demand-supply gap in 2011 and 2025, respectively, with full scale interventions (see Table 5.13).

5.8.2

Reducing Irrigated Area

This option is especially for crops that are not amenable to pressure irrigation systems and mulching. The availability-demand gap of 159.20 MCM by 2025 can be achieved in either of two ways: Without expanding pressurized irrigation and mulching, through a 45% reduction in the area under both wheat and mustard grown using conventional methods of irrigation; with expansion of pressurized irrigation and mulching wherever possible AND reducing the areas under irrigated wheat and mustard by about 30%. This assumes of course that the demand for water in the agriculture and other sectors will not grow in the future, either due to population pressure or industrial growth – or that the availability decreases. If either of these happens and the gap widens, the area under major irrigated crops (mustard and wheat) may have to be reduced by 45% from current levels to close the gap.

5.8.3

Mining of Groundwater Reserves

Even with all the viable water management interventions discussed above, the district will not be able to meet all its water requirements for domestic and productive uses from the available, renewable water resources in the basin, though there could be around 32.7% and 25.2% reduction in the demand-supply gap with full scale interventions, in 2011 and 2025, respectively (see Table 10). The only way to meet this deficit is through groundwater mining. But it is quite unlikely that the static groundwater resources in the district (1248 MCM) will be sufficient to keep the mining, which is currently occurring at the rate of 68 MCM per annum, continue till the year 2025. However, it must be kept in mind that the utilizable water supplies can change drastically from a wet year to a dry year, and also the area under irrigated crops could also reduce significantly, thereby affecting major reductions in the actual

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demand for water. Hence, the analysis will have to be carried out for a long timeframe, considering the climatic variations and resource dynamics.

5.9

Conclusions

Water accounting for Luni river basin showed that there is too little surface runoff flowing out of the basin, and there is heavy mining of groundwater (from the static groundwater) due to excessive use of the available water (both surface runoff and groundwater) for irrigated agriculture. The hydrological analysis also shows that the surface runoff in the basin is highly variable between drought years and abnormally wet years. In excessively wet years, there is large amount of outflow (discharge) from the basin’s last drainage outlet, as flash floods. At the basin level, opportunities exist for capturing the excessive runoff that occurs during flash floods. Pali district is one of the upper catchment districts of Luni river basin. The scope for diverting the flash floods during wet years therefore does not exist for the district, to the potential negative impacts of such diversions on the downstream flows in normal and dry years. Comparison of water demands and supplies for the district shows precarious water balance. The estimates for 2011–12 show that water use exceeded the renewable supply by 2011–12 itself (530 MCM per annum against 411 MCM), and the deficit was met from tapping a part of the dynamic groundwater in the district. As per our estimates, the demand for water from all four sectors is projected to increase to 630 MCM by 2025, with no changes expected in the supplies. The only intervention to improve the water balance of the district is use of drip irrigation (for select irrigated crops) and plastic mulching for some rain-fed crops, given the difference between crop water requirement (371 MCM) and the consumptive water use (464 MCM). However, the extent to which both could contribute to reduce the water demand is not large (only around 52 MCM per annum). Hence the district is left with two hard options. First one is to reduce the area under irrigated farming which accounted for more than 80% of the total water demand. The second option is to continue with mining of groundwater for some more years.

References Allen, R. G., Willardson, L. S., & Frederiksen, H. (1997). Water Use Definitions and Their Use for Assessing the Impacts of Water Conservation. In J. M. de Jager, L. P. Vermes, & R. Rageb (Eds.), Proceedings ICID workshop on sustainable irrigation in areas of water scarcity and drought (pp. 72–82). Oxford, England, September 11–12. Bhuiyan, C., & Kogan, F. N. (2010). Monsoon variation and vegetative drought patterns in the Luni Basin in the rain-shadow zone. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 31(12), 3223–3242.

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Central Water Commission. (2012). Integrated hydrological data book (Non-classified basins). Hydrological Data Directorate, Information Systems Organization, Water Planning and Projects Wing, Central Water Commission, New Delhi, March 2012. Das, P. K. (1996). The monsoons (3rd ed.). National Book Trust, India. Gleick, P. H. (1996). Basic water requirements for human activities: Meeting basic needs. Water International, 21(2), 83–92. Government of Gujarat. (1999). Report of the committee on estimation of ground water resource and irrigation potential in Gujarat State: GWRE – 1997, Department of Narmada, Water Resources and Water Supplies, Gandhinagar. Government of India. (2011). Dynasmic ground water resources of India (as on March 2009). Central Ground Water Board, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India, Faridabad, November 2011. Indian National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage (INCID). (1994). Drip irrigation in India. New Delhi: Indian National Committee on Irrigation and Drainage. James, A. J., & Kumar, M. D. (2019). Downscaling IWRM plans from basin to districts: IWRM plan for Pali district in Western Rajasthan. In Current directions in water scarcity research (Vol. 1, pp. 213–244). Elsevier. Kumar, M. D. (2010). Managing water in river basins: Hydrology, economics, and institutions. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Kumar, M. D., & van Dam, J. C. (2013). Drivers of change in agricultural water productivity and its improvement at basin scale in developing economies. Water International, 38(3), 312–325. Pallas, P. (1986). Water for animals. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization. Seckler, D., Amarasinghe, U., Molden, D., de Silva, R., & Barker, R. (1998). World water demand and supply, 1990 to 2025: Scenarios and issues. Research Report 19. Colombo: International Water Management Institute. Seckler, D. (1996). The new era of water resources management. Research Report 1. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Irrigation Management Institute (IIMI). Sharma, K. D., & Murthy, J. S. R. (1998). A practical approach to rainfall-runoff modelling in arid zone drainage basins. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 43(3), 331–348. Singh, N. (1994). Optimizing a network of rain-gauges over India to monitor summer monsoon rainfall variations. International Journal of Climatology, 14(1), 61–70. Sinha, U. K., & Navada, S. V. (2008). Application of isotope techniques in groundwater recharge studies in arid western Rajasthan, India: Some case studies. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 288(1), 121–135. Tahal Consultants. (2013). Study on planning of water resources of Rajasthan. Draft Final Report submitted to the State Water Resources Planning Dept., Government of Rajasthan, December 2013, Vol. 3.2, 2c. Tahal Consultants. (2014). Study on planning of water resources of Rajasthan. Main Report-IN24740-R13-073, Final Report submitted to the State Water Resources Planning Dept., Government of Rajasthan, July 2014. Xie, Z. K., Wang, Y. J., & Li, F. M. (2005). Effect of plastic mulching on soil water use and spring wheat yield in arid region of northwest China. Agricultural Water Management, 75(1), 71–83.

M. Dinesh Kumar did his B.Tech in Civil Engineering in 1988, M.E. in Water Resources Management in 1991 and Ph.D. in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF; international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (USA); and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala).

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He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters and many journal articles. He has published in many international peerreviewed journals, viz. Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water ResourcesManagement, International Journal ofWater ResourcesDevelopment and Water Economics and Policy. He is also Associate Editor of Water Policy and Member of the Editorial Board of International Journal ofWater ResourcesDevelopment. His research works of global relevance are integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water and food security challenges; climate risk in WASH; and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. A. J. James holds a Ph.D. in Economics (University College, London); has taught at St. Stephen’s College and the Delhi School of Economics; and has been a visiting fellow at the Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi. He has over 20 years of research and work experience in developmental issues, including water and sanitation, water pollution, watershed development, irrigation and drainage, health, education, adaptation to climate change, natural resource management, agriculture, forestry and poverty alleviation. Another area of specialization is monitoring and evaluation, wherein he had helped to develop innovative methodologies for community-level assessment of qualitative information. Besides India, he has worked in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Afghanistan. His clients are funding agencies (World Bank, DFID, UNDP, UNICEF, FAO and ADB), research and development institutions (ENTRO, Addis Ababa), IRC International Water and Sanitation Centre (the Netherlands), Overseas Development Institute (London), Institute for Arable Crop Research, UK, and Natural Resources Institute, UK, consulting firms in India and abroad, nongovernmental organizations, and Indian government agencies. He has given several invited talks and seminars, besides editing books, contributing book chapters, and publishing articles in international peer-reviewed journals. He is an Honorary Visiting Professor at the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur, since 2011. Nitin Bassi is a Natural Resource Management specialist (M.Phil) having nearly 13 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy, and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a Principal Researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include river basin and catchment assessment, water accounting, institutional and policy analysis in irrigation and water supply management, water quality analysis, climate variability, and climate-induced water risk analysis and wetland management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in projects, research studies and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include the European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT and SDTT. He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD & GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge UK and has several book chapters and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal ofWater ResourcesDevelopment; Journal of Hydrology and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.

Chapter 6

Planning of Rural Water Supply Systems: Role of Climatic Factors and Other Considerations Nitin Bassi, Yusuf Kabir, and Anand Ghodke

Abstract The chapter discusses why it is important to consider the climatic and socio-economic factors in the planning of rural water supply schemes and how the consideration of these factors can influence the regional water supply planning, particularly the assessment of water demands in various sectors. It discusses the norms used currently for planning rural water supply, especially the norm relating to per capita water supply for human consumption and livestock. Based on the evidence available from scientific literature on the impact of physical and socioeconomic factors on water requirement in rural domestic and livestock sectors and kitchen gardening, it defines certain criteria for assessing water demands in domestic and livestock sectors in per capita terms in different regions based on climatic conditions, per capita income, occupational profile and water prices, and describes how the per capita water demands in the domestic and livestock sector in a region could change according to these criteria. Finally, the implications of this analysis for drinking water supply policy for the rural areas of the country are discussed. Keywords Rural water supply planning · Climatic factors · Social-economic factors · Water demand assessment criteria · Water supply norms

N. Bassi (*) Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India e-mail: [email protected] Y. Kabir UNICEF Mumbai Field Office, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India e-mail: [email protected] A. Ghodke UNICEF Field Office for Maharashtra, Mumbai, India e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_6

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Introduction

Provisioning of potable water for domestic consumption as a public service started in India way back in the 1970s. This was contemplated by the governments in lieu of the widespread public health hazards such as cholera and diarrhoeal diseases occurring in rural areas due to consumption of contaminated water from common sources. The focus was on ensuring that the water supplied is free from physical, chemical/ biochemical and bacteriological contamination. The general norm adopted for water supply vis-à-vis the quantity of water supplied was 40 litres per capita per day and this was considered sufficient for rural communities who did not have access to common sewerage systems and toilets, to meet the high priority uses such as drinking and cooking and washing clothes (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). This norm was further compromised by the state water supply agencies for droughtprone regions because in their opinion it was difficult to manage water for fulfilling a high per capita supply norm. The underlying assumption in all these cases was that the unmet water needs of the rural communities, especially for low value uses (cleaning utensils, personal hygiene, watering of livestock, etc.) could be managed from informal sources in the villages. Given the presence of traditional water sources such as open wells, ponds and tanks in the villages, this assumption was largely valid. The role that interventions to improve water availability at the household level plays in improving public health against those to improve the quality of water (Esrey et al. 1985)1 had been least recognised for quite a long time. Nevertheless, changing socio-economic conditions of India’s rural landscape and the rapidly changing water ecology demanded revisiting some of the assumptions underlying the norms relating to water supply in villages. On the socio-economic front, the water demand for domestic purpose has increased remarkably owing to rising income levels, improvement in lifestyles and changing occupational patterns. Today, very few people depend on common water bodies such as ponds and tanks for bathing and washing clothes even in regions where such sources are in good condition. Some of the water uses, which were instream in nature, have now become consumptive uses with the result that there is little scope for reuse of the water which is used for bathing and washing. With rising per capita income, the water requirement for washing clothes and personal hygiene (sanitation) had increased as communities adopt improved technologies. With increasing number of people, especially in water-scarce regions opting for intensive dairy farming, the demand for water for watering animals has increased (FAO 2006). Fetching water for livestock is as big a priority for dairy farmers as finding water for meeting other domestic purposes. The above-mentioned changes had changed the per capita water demand for domestic

1 A synthesis of several field studies showed that the impact of interventions in improving water availability at the household level in terms of reduction in diarrhoeal diseases was 25% against 16% for improvement in water quality. The combined effect of interventions on both availability and quality was 37% reduction in diarrhoeal diseases (Esrey et al. 1985).

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uses in the rural areas. Over and above these, there is growing recognition that in the hot and arid regions, the per capita water requirements for domestic uses like animal watering and bathing are even higher than that in cold and humid regions and more water needs to be supplied for domestic uses (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). Regarding water ecology, there is overall degradation of water resources in the country-side in most regions of India due to larger environmental changes (resulting from manifold increase in groundwater draft for irrigation and other uses, changing land use in the catchments and increased use of fertilisers and pesticides in irrigated agriculture) leading to groundwater depletion, reduced inflows into water bodies from their catchments and water pollution, respectively. The stage of groundwater extraction in some of the arid and semi-arid regions in India is above 100% (Government of India 2019a), for instance in the state of Haryana (137%), Rajasthan (140%) and Punjab (166%), that means in such areas the aquifers are over-exploited and more water is withdrawn than the annual groundwater recharge. The scope of using water from informal sources to cater to the unmet domestic demand is reducing over time, though households having own irrigation sources (such as wells and tube wells) might be able to meet a major portion of their domestic water demand from these sources. Therefore, while the per capita water demand is increasing over time, the proportion of this demand which is to be catered to through from formal sources is also increasing. This means that the old norms used for planning water supply schemes do not hold good in the current situation.

6.2

Current Norms for Planning Rural Water Supply Schemes in India

In India, the central government assistance to states for improving households’ access to water supply in rural areas began in 1972 with the launch of Accelerated Rural Water Supply Programme (ARWSP). In 2009, Government of India (GoI) revamped the ARWSP and launched it as the National Rural Drinking Water Programme (NRDWP) with major emphasis on ensuring water availability in rural areas with respect to its portability, adequacy, affordability and equitable distribution on sustainable basis, while also adopting decentralised approach in planning, implementation and Operation and Maintenance (O&M) of rural water supply schemes (GoI 2013). NRDWP recommended following norms for providing drinking water to rural population: (i) 40 litres per capita per day (lpcd) of safe drinking water for human beings (including for drinking, bathing, ablution and washing clothes and utensils); (ii) 30 lpcd additional for cattle in the Desert Development Programme areas; (iii) one hand-pump or stand post for every 250 persons; and (iv) water source to be made available within the habitation or within 1.6 km in the plains and within 100 m elevation in the hilly areas. Though ARWSP also had a water supply norm of 40 lpcd, major shift in NRDWP was to move from ‘habitation level’ to ‘household level’ drinking water supply coverage.

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The 12th Five Year Plan and the 12th Finance Plan approach of Government of India suggested enhancement in per capita supply from 40 lpcd to 55 lpcd for rural areas. Though some states such as Maharashtra in western India has adopted 55 lpcd in planning of new water supply schemes based on surface water sources, groundwater-based schemes are continued to be planned keeping the water supply norm of 40 lpcd citing constrained groundwater resources in increasing the per capita supply levels. Even in the schemes supplying 55 lpcd, major challenge is to identify and implement efficient models for O&M which can guarantee designed supply levels (TISS 2015). In 2019, GoI restructured the NRDWP and launched it as Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) with an aim of providing functional household tap connection to every household by 2024 (Government of India 2019b). Following the suggestion of the 12th Five Year Plan and the 12th Finance Plan, 55 lpcd is officially adopted as the water supply norm.

6.3

Inadequacies of the Current Norms

The current water supply norms are simply based on the principle of meeting basic minimum need of drinking water for the rural population (Gleick 1996), and not based on the concept of water security for the community. The water need of the community for human and other household uses is a function of its socio-economic conditions, the culture, climate and the season (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). Some of the socio-economic factors that influence water requirements include the occupational profile of the family (whether employed or engaged in conventional farming or in livestock rearing/dairy farming or cottage industries or in wage labour), the scale of operations (in the case of dairy farming and cottage industries), and the average income levels. Culture heavily influences the water use practices of households. Climate (i.e. whether hot and arid or hot and humid or cold and humid) influence various households water needs such as water for drinking, water for bathing and washing, and water for animals. Given the water requirements, the price of water also influences the demand for water or the amount of water for which the communities are willing to pay. Even the chemical quality of water can heavily influence the water requirements for some of the domestic needs including human and animal drinking. Historically, these factors were never considered in the planning of rural water supply schemes in India. An action research study on developing multiple-use water system models in Maharashtra by GSDA, IRAP and UNICEF (2013) has shown that the poor rural households, which are not dependent on agriculture and allied activities for their livelihood, have many productive water needs at the household level. Such households may need water for kitchen garden, homesteads, livestock keeping or running small scale industries. When water becomes scarce, these poor communities often compromise on their personal hygiene in an effort to find water for productive needs.

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Thus, there is a need to revise the conventional supply norm, taking into cognizance, various domestic and productive needs of the village community. Even the Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation (MDWS), GoI strategic plan for the rural drinking water sector for the period 2011–2022 recognised the need for revising current rural water supply norms and stressed that by 2022, every person in the rural area should have access to 70 lpcd of water within their household premises or at a horizontal or vertical distance of not more than 50 m from their household without any social barrier and financial discrimination. In fact, states were encouraged to adopt a higher per capita water supply norm of lpcd (GoI 2013). However, apart from some pilot projects, even the 55 lpcd of water is not available at the household premises.

6.4

How Do Climatic Factors Influence Rural Household Water Needs?

India experiences a high spatial and temporal variability in climate. Rainfall, one of the important components of the hydrological cycle, varies from an average of 100 mm in areas of western Rajasthan to more than 10,000 mm in some areas of Meghalaya (Data Source: India Meteorological Department). Climate variability plays an important role in determining the annual renewable water availability in any region, river basin and its sub-basins. Increased precipitation or decreased evapotranspiration are likely to augment water supplies and reduce water demand by irrigated agriculture (National Academy of Sciences 1999). High rainfall variability as experienced in semi-arid and hilly areas in India can result in reduced water availability, especially during summer months (GSDA, IRAP and UNICEF 2013). Prolong spell of low rainfall in semi-arid areas can result in droughts. Water quality deterioration due to increased contamination levels also reduces the available supply of water for domestic uses (National Academy of Sciences 1999). Household water demand in areas experiencing cold climate will be lower than area with dry or humid climate. In developing countries, rural household water use (without flush toilets and any productive use) in humid climate varies from 10 to 40 lpcd and that in dry climate varies from 30 to 80 lpcd (Gleick 1996). In dry climate, productive water needs such as for livestock and homestead will also be higher (Pallas 1986). Even within a region, water demand during summers will be substantially higher than in monsoon or winter season (GSDA, IRAP and UNICEF 2013). Thus planning for any new water supply scheme should take cognizance of climate variability in the region and its effect on water availability and household water demand.

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How Socio-economic Factors Influence Rural Household Water Needs? Impact of Income on Domestic Water Needs

Household income certainly has an impact on domestic water needs in rural areas. It has been observed that with rise in income, rich households in rural areas tend to own more items of assets and gadgets including improved toilet and household appliances such as washing machines, heating rods and so on (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). Hence, their demand for water will be higher. In order to have a reliable water supply, they also tend to go for piped water supply within their premises or develop their own sources of water such as dug well, bore/tube well or hand pump. It has been observed that with the rise in income, proportion of household having access to piped water connection (whether within the premises or inside the dwelling) also goes up (Fig. 6.1). Better physical access to water in terms of distance between source and the dwelling can increase per capita domestic water consumption considerably (Howard and Bartram 2003; WELL 1998). Developing own sources of water, on one hand, reduces household dependence on public water supply which is irregular, while on other hand it provides them with an option of accessing multiple water sources. However, household with low incomes or those below poverty lines mostly depend on off-plot public water supply sources or purchased water for meeting their water demand.

40

% households with piped water

35 30 25 20 15

27.18

25.4

26.96

29.62

Bottom 20th percentile

20th-40th percentile

40th-60th percentile

60th-80th percentile

10

33.63

5 0 Top 20th percentile

Income quint iles Fig. 6.1 Access to piped water across the income distribution in India. (Source: Based on data presented in Jalan and Ravallion 2003)

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Impact of Occupational Profile on Productive Water Needs

Poor and landless rural households in developing countries are mostly dependent on small homestead gardens and livestock raising as their major livelihood activity (GSDA, IRAP and UNICEF 2013). Such household use water supplied for domestic uses to irrigate their homesteads which help them become food secure. Fan et al. (2013) estimated that in Wei river basin of China, vegetable gardening increased the annual income of the small farm families by approximately 30% through providing fresh vegetables and reducing the food budget. Also, vegetable gardening significantly affected water consumption as watering gardens accounted for almost 50% of the total domestic water consumption. Thus there can be strong negative economic impacts on poor rural households if water supply systems are not planned considering the productive water demands of rural households.

6.5.3

Impact of Water Price on Domestic Water Consumption

It has been hypothesised that where water is purchased or billed (in case of piped water supply within household premises), the cost may be a limiting factor on the volumes of water used as the households may try to use it more sparingly or efficiently (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). Globally, the field studies reveal mixed findings but in the majority of cases, the household water demand reduced substantially with the increase in water price (Montginoul et al. 2005; Arbues and Villanua 2006; Olmstead et al. 2007; Madebwe and Madebwe 2011). In southern France, households reduced per capita water consumption (by 35% between 1991 and 2000) in response to increases in price (threefold increase in 2000 of the 1991 level) of public water supply by changing their water use habits and investing in water-saving appliances (Montginoul et al. 2005). Similarly, in Northern America, household water demand reduced by 33% with the doubling of the water prices (Olmstead et al. 2007). In some cases, no change was observed in household water consumption behaviour (Cairncross and Kinnear 1992; Howard et al. 2002). This inelasticity of water demand to water prices is observed where households do not have access to alternate sources of good quality water, the provision of water services is a legal monopoly that prevents them to change supplier or source, and the water tariff structure is designed considering the average instead of the marginal water price (Arbues and Villanua 2006). Nevertheless, households do tend to look for alternate private untreated water sources that are cheaper than the safe water being supplied by public utilities to meet non-essential domestic uses such as for gardens, washing vehicles, etc. (Montginoul et al. 2005). According to Howard and Bartram (2003), the major influence of the need to purchase water has been to depend on multiple water sources, and thus the elasticity of water demand was seen primarily in source selection behaviour rather

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than reducing volumes due to price increase. This argument is mostly valid for welloff households. In southern France, many affluent households (having gardens) resorted to drilling their shallow bore wells as a complement to or a substitute for the expensive public water supply and thus maintaining their high water use level (Montginoul et al. 2005). Also, in western India (state of Maharashtra) households above the poverty line were able to access 7–8 different sources of water (60% of these owned by them), whereas those below the poverty line can access only 3–4 different sources of water which are mostly public and provide irregular water supply (GSDA, IRAP, and UNICEF 2013). These evidences, however, do not suggest that water price does not influence water use behaviour. As noted by Howard and Bartram (2003), the overall impact of the price of water on domestic water consumption must have been confounded by other factors such as differential income of the households, the access to water and the quality of water supply, factors which can potentially impact on household water consumption. Hence water consumption in such households is better explained by economic factors, with wealth of the household being the most important factor (Arbues and Villanua 2006; Madebwe and Madebwe 2011), and also by physical access to water sources (GSDA, IRAP, and UNICEF 2013). Moreover, it is likely that if the public water services are improved reflecting the essential needs of the rural households (drinking, cooking, and hygiene), they will be more than willing to pay for such services (World Bank 1993).

6.6

Per Capita Water Requirement for Drinking and Cooking

The human body requires a minimum intake of water in order to be able to sustain life and prevent dehydration. White et al. (1972) estimated that about 2.6 lpcd is lost through respiration, perspiration, urination and defecation from the body. This can be as high as 25 lpcd for the people working at high temperature under the sun. Approximately one-third of the lost body fluid is likely to be derived from food (Kleiner 1999) and rest has to be fulfilled by consuming water. For developing countries, White et al. (1972) and Gleick (1996) suggested that a minimum of 3 lpcd of water is required by adults for drinking purpose in most situations. Figure 6.2 provides the details on minimum volume of water required for hydration under different climates, activity levels and diet requirements. On average, daily water requirement for hydration comes out to be 2.6 litres per adult in temperate climate and 4.5 litres per adult in hot climate. It is expected that one-third of all this hydration fluid is derived from food and that domestic water supply needs to only fulfil two-thirds of the minimum quantity identified. Additionally, it is to be ensured that the quality of supplied water meets the BIS standards to prevent any transmission of infectious diarrhoeal and other diseases.

Volume required in LPCD

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5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0

4.5

4.5

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4.5

2.9 2.2 1

Female Adults

Male Adults

Children

Relaxed life style or Temperate climate Tropical climates or manual Labour in high temperatures

Fig. 6.2 Volume of water required for hydration. (Source: Based on data presented in Howard and Bartram 2003)

In developing countries, most cultures have a staple foodstuff, which is usually some form of carbohydrate-rich vegetable or lentils and cereal (mainly rice). A minimum quantity of water required for cooking staple food can be estimated using the calorie requirement in rural areas and amount of water required to prepare food to meet such requirement. Average minimum calorie requirement in India is 2400 cal/person/day in rural areas which is 600 g/person/day (both protein and carbohydrates contain 4 calories per gram). To prepare this much food, about 1.5 litres of water will be required (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). Additionally, rural households have water requirement for preparing tea and other food items. However, defining minimum quantities of water for these is difficult as it depends on the nature of the food being prepared (Howard and Bartram 2003). In context of developing countries, Gleick (1996) suggested that an average of 10 lpcd will meet the household basic need for food preparation.

6.7

Per Capita Water Requirement for Sanitation and Hygiene

There is a direct link between provision of clean water, adequate sanitation services and improved health (Gleick 1996). A substantial proportion of population in developing countries lack access to clean water and sanitation facilities. As a result, every year there are several cases of water related diseases. As per one estimate, lack of access to safe drinking water and sanitation, combined with poor personal

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hygiene, causes massive health impacts, particularly through diarrhoeal diseases, costing lives of 2.18 million people annually, three-quarters of whom are children younger than 5 years old (Pruss et al. 2002). Thus, access to water for sanitation is one of the most important components in reducing water related diseases and for improving household hygiene practices. Also, additional volumes of water will be required for maintaining food and personal hygiene through hand and food washing, bathing and laundry. Based on the access to water supply source, per capita water used by households in developing countries for maintaining hygiene and meeting other domestic demands (excluding water requirement for productive uses) is estimated to vary from 5 lpcd to above 100 lpcd (Table 6.1). The no access households have a very low household water security as they have to collect water from distant sources and volumes collected barely exceed the minimum for hydration. Households travelling up to 1 km to access and collect water have basic household water security, provided that water is reasonably continuous and quality can be assured at source and protected during subsequent handling. Households with piped water supply within their premise have effective household water security as sufficient water is available to meet domestic needs and provided that water quality is assured. Households having piped water supply in their dwelling has optimal household water security with quantity, quality and continuity all likely to be adequate for meeting all hygiene and other domestic water needs (Howard and Bartram 2003). Considering the average water requirements for drinking and cooking, average daily water requirement for maintaining hygiene in case of households having intermediate access is 37.5 lpcd and for those having optimal access is 85.5 lpcd. At least an intermediate access to water supply is a necessity in areas with hot climate.

Table 6.1 Water use by rural households (lpcd) in developing countries in relation to access to water supply Access to water No access

Basic access

Intermediate access Optimal access

Distance travelled and time spent measure More than 1000 m or 30 min of total collection time Between 100 and 1000 m (5–30 min of total collection time) Piped water supply within premises Piped water supply within dwelling

Likely quantities collected or used Very low, often less than 5 lpcd Low, average is about 20 lpcd Medium, likely to be around 50 lpcd About 100 lpcd or more, provided water supply is regular

Source: Based on Howard and Bartram (2003)

Level of health concern Very high as water quality and hygiene not assured and consumption needs may be at risk. Medium, not all requirements are met. Also, water quality is difficult to assure. Low as most basic hygiene and consumption needs met. Very low as all uses can be met and water quality is assured.

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Water for Livestock

Livestock keeping is an important activity in most of the rural households in India and other developing countries. It helps them meet their basic dairy requirements and also earn additional income through sale of dairy items such as milk and eggs. As seen in most of rural households, water supplied for domestic purpose is also used for feeding domestic animals. More the number of livestock holding per household, higher amount of water will be required in meeting livestock water demand (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). Generally, there are three different types of water requirements in livestock keeping: (1) for preparing its feed mix; (2) for animal drinking; and (3) service requirements, including for washing the animal. The drinking water requirement of the livestock will depend on its breed, age and weight, farming system and climatic conditions of the region (Chapagain and Hoekstra 2003). Table 6.2 presents drinking water requirement for animals under different farming systems. In landless livestock systems, animals are detached from the land base of feed supply and waste disposal. They depend on external supplies of feed, energy and other inputs. In grazing livestock systems, more than 90% of dry matter fed to animals comes from rangelands, pastures, annual forages and purchased feeds (Sere et al. 1995). For rural households in India, both landless and grazing livestock production systems are more common. If climatic conditions of the regions are considered, drinking water requirement of the livestock will depend on the voluntary intake of water which is the quantity of water that actually needs to be supplied to animals and corresponds to that part of the water requirement which cannot be provided by the moisture content of the forage. Table 6.3 presents the voluntary water requirement of the animals under different climatic conditions.

Table 6.2 Drinking water requirement for animals in different livestock production systems Livestock type Dairy cattle

Sheep Goats Broiler chicken Laying hens

Age group Calves (0–1 year) Heifers (1–3 years) Milking cows (3–10 years) Lamb Adult Kid Adult Chick Adult Chick Laying eggs

Drinking water requirement (litre/animal/day) Landless system Grazing system 5–23 4–18 26–70 18–30 70 40 0.38 0.30 7.6 6.0 0.38 0.30 3.8 3.5 0.02 0.02 0.18 0.18 0.02 0.02 0.30 0.30

Source: Based on data presented in Chapagain and Hoekstra (2003)

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Table 6.3 Voluntary water intake of livestock under different climatic conditions

Animal type Buffalo Cattle Sheep Goat

Average live weight (kg) 400 180 25 25

Tropical (Total) Livestock Unitsa (TLU) 1.60 0.7 0.10 0.10

Average daily dry matter intake (kg) 7 5 1 1

Daily voluntary water intake (litres/animal) Dry cold Season, Dry hot Season, Wet Season, air temperature air air from 15 to temperature temperature 21  C 27  C 27  C 22.8 43.0 62.0 10 19 27 2 4 5 2 4 5

Source: Based on estimates of livestock water demand in litre per Total Livestock Unit for different types of livestock provided by Pallas (1986) a A tropical livestock unit is defined as a mature animal weighing 250 kg (Kassam et al. 1991)

The above parameters, i.e. livestock water requirement under different farming systems and climatic conditions, need to be considered while planning a water supply system which can meet livestock water drinking water demand.

6.9

Water for Kitchen Garden

It is increasingly being recognised that productive uses of water have particular value for low-income households and communities and have health and well-being benefits (GSDA, IRAP and UNICEF 2013). Direct health benefits are derived from improved nutrition and food security from kitchen garden that has been watered. Indirect health benefits arise from improvements in household wealth from productive activity. In a field research study undertaken in Maharashtra, it emerged that households having homestead or vegetable gardens use on average about 22–75 litres of water for irrigation depending on the size of the homestead and the climatic conditions (GSDA, IRAP and UNICEF 2013). This water is supplied from multiple sources of domestic water supply. Therefore, it is essential that the productive water needs of the households should be identified before planning a domestic water supply system for any region. The water requirement for kitchen garden depends on the climate of the region under consideration, the area of the plot being considered and the season during which kitchen gardening is practised. The water requirement will be generally lowest during the winter season when reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is lowest and highest during summer months, when the reference evapotranspiration becomes the highest. If reference evapotranspiration is nearly 3 mm per day during the winter season, a fully matured vegetable garden (say tomatoes, brinjal or chilly or carrot or cauliflower) raised during that season for an area of 50 sq. m will require nearly 165 litres of water per day for a family, if we consider a crop factor (K) of around

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1.15. For the same area of a plot, the water requirement can increase to 500 litres during summer months, when the average daily ET0 touches 10 mm (IRAP, CTARA and UNICEF 2018). In both hot and humid and cold and humid, high rainfall areas (like in the north east, Kerala and Konkan region of Maharashtra), vegetable gardens are generally raised by the communities throughout the year, whereas in the hot and arid regions, they are preferred by the communities only during the rainy season and winter season, due to the fear of damage to the plants due to heat stress and water shortage increasing production risk. Cultural factors also seem to influence the decision to go for kitchen gardens or backyard vegetable cultivation. In tribal villages (of Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka and Odisha and the North east), kitchen gardens are a common feature. But, a proper plan for reuse of wastewater from kitchens can help effectively reduce the water demand for kitchen gardens. In many situations, the grey water from kitchens and bathrooms is diverted to homesteads having vegetables and tree crops and separate arrangements are not made for watering then.

6.10

Summary

This chapter has discussed the water supply norm being followed for rural areas in India and highlighted its inadequacy in meeting the domestic and productive water needs of the rural households. Based on the review of international literature, the chapter has also identified quantum of drinking, cooking, sanitation, bathing, washing, livestock and homestead water requirement and the influence of climatic, social and economic factors on the household water demand. Based on the estimates presented in this chapter, the household water demand under different climates, Table 6.4 Household domestic and productive water needs as estimated for different climates, activity levels and diet requirements

Uses Drinking (lpcd) Cooking (lpcd) Hygiene (including sanitation, bathing, washing) in lpcd Cattle (in litres per animal per day) Per homestead (for a 50 sq. m plot)

Average water requirement Temperate/cold climate with intermediate access to water supply 2.6 10 37.5

Tropical climates/high temperatures with intermediate access to water supply 4.5 10 35.5

19

27

22

75 150(winter) -500 (summer)

Source: Based on authors’ analysis of international literature

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activity levels and diet requirements is presented in Table 6.4. Planning and design of rural water schemes should identify all the domestic and productive water needs of the rural households for different climatic and socio-economic settings in order to deliver water on sustainable basis.

6.11

Conclusions and Policy Inferences

Several of the scientific literature reviewed for this chapter suggest that planning of water supply systems with respect to the value of the demand variable (i.e. per capita water requirement) should consider a wide range of factors that include environmental conditions (climate), the socio-economic status of the population (income and occupational profile), and the price that will be fixed for the water. While the increase in water tariff (or price of water) will reduce the demand for water for domestic purposes in most situations (except when the ability to pay is very high wherein the price elasticity of water demand becomes almost zero) with households doing away with low value uses, tariff fixing for water will have to be done very carefully. For cost recovery, the price of water should consider the average cost of production and supply of water, which is generally high in hot and arid, water-scarce regions of India (Kumar 2014). But it should also consider the community’s affordability so that the poor people are not forced to cut down on consumption for high value uses (like washing, bathing, and sanitation) (Noll et al. 2000). That said, the approach of using a uniform norm for per capita water requirement in order to estimate the water demand is highly inadequate and can lead to poor water supply system design. Given the fact that the climatic and socio-economic conditions and hence water requirements can vary drastically between regions within a state, the same state can have different norms for different regions.

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Seré, C., Steinfeld, H., & Groenewold, J. (1995). World livestock production systems: Current status, issues and trends (FAO animal production and health paper no. 127). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization. Tata Institute of Social Sciences. (2015). Status of rural water supply in Maharashtra: A third party evaluation commissioned by Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation, Government of India. Mumbai: Tata Institute of Social Sciences. WELL (Water and Environmental Health at London and Loughborough). (1998). Guidance manual on water supply and sanitation programmes. Loughborough: WEDC, Loughborough University. White, G. F., Bradley, D. J., & White, A. U. (1972). Drawers of water. Domestic water use in East Africa. London: University of Chicago Press. World Bank. (1993). The demand for water in rural areas: Determinants and policy implications. The World Bank Research Observer, 8(1), 47–70.

Nitin Bassi is a Natural Resource Management specialist (M. Phil) having nearly 13 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy, and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a Principal Researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include River Basin and Catchment Assessment, Water Accounting, Institutional and Policy Analysis in Irrigation and Water Supply Management, Water Quality Analysis, Climate Variability, and Climate-induced Water Risk Analysis and Wetland Management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in projects, research studies, and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT, and SDTT. He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD & GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge UK, and has several book chapters, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal of Water Resources Development; Journal of Hydrology; and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. Yusuf Kabir’s areas of specialization are Rural Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation, Environment, Climate Change Adaptations, and Sustainable Development. He has two post-graduate degrees and had attended several International certificate courses. His first master’s degree is in Environment Engineering and Management from India’s premier management Institute: Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management (IISWBM), and the second one is in Sustainable Development from Staffordshire University, U.K. Yusuf is a Commonwealth scholar. He has several publications in International Journals, Papers, and Books on water and sanitation issues and State Level Committee Members of different state bodies and knowledge management platforms of CSR. He is working in the Water, Sanitation and Environment sector for the last 20 years. He is with UNICEF India since 2007. Prior to that he worked with organizations like DFID, National Level NGOs, Social and Marketing research consultancy firms like GFK-MODE, ORG India Pvt Ltd. He is a commonwealth scholar and a trained policy writer from Central European University, Budapest, Hungary where he had undergone a summer course on ‘Evidence-Based Policy Formulation’. He runs a blog on Sanitation in the name of WASH Garage: Blog: http://safaiwala.blogspot.in/

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Anand Ghodke has over 18 years of experience with diverse domains including Government and International agencies as well as philanthropic and Non-Governmental Organizations where he has worked in different capacities. The major areas around which he worked are natural resources management, water supply, and sanitation programs, monitoring of developmental programs of the ministries of Governments and other agencies, etc. He has been part of various evaluations, preparation of guidelines and programs and has also served the Steering Committee of Water Supply Sanitation Collaborative Council, Geneva, Switzerland as a representative for South Asia Regional Seat. Currently, he works as Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Officer with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) at Mumba Office, Maharashtra. Trained in engineering from IIT Kharagpur, Anand comes from the Yavatmal district of Maharashtra and is passionate about the works and innovations that benefit the underprivileged and vulnerable population.

Chapter 7

A Framework for Assessing Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene M. Dinesh Kumar, Arijit Ganguly, Yusuf Kabir, and Omkar Khare

Abstract This chapter discusses development of an analytical framework for assessing the public health risk associated with disruptions in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services affected by climate-induced hazards related to water such as droughts and floods. For the development of the framework, the factors influencing the three different dimensions such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability in rural water and sanitation were identified and grouped as natural, physical, socioeconomic and institutional. These factors and the relevant indicative variables are identified based on an extensive review of international literature and expert knowledge. This way, a total of 29 factors were identified, which included five natural factors affecting ‘hazard’; three natural, six physical, three socio-economic and three institutional and policy factors influencing ‘exposure’; and one natural, six socioeconomic and two institutional and policy factors influencing ‘vulnerability’. The way in which these factors influence hazard, exposure and vulnerability are discussed, and the quantitative criteria for assigning values for these variables are also explained. Keywords WASH services · Public health risk · Hazard · Vulnerability · Exposure · Composite risk index

M. Dinesh Kumar (*) Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India e-mail: [email protected] A. Ganguly PwC India, Kolkata, West Bengal, India Y. Kabir UNICEF Mumbai Field Office, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India e-mail: [email protected] O. Khare UNICEF Field Office for Maharashtra, Mumbai, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_7

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Introduction

Risk is a complex function whose magnitude is influenced by three distinct parameters, viz., degree of hazard; degree of exposure and degree of vulnerability. Water supply, sanitation and hygiene directly impact public health. Climate influences water resource availability in terms of both quantity and quality (Duran-Encalada et al. 2017). Climate variability and change can induce water-related hazards in the form of floods, droughts and water scarcity. These hazards can cause disruptions in the water-related services such as water supply (quantity and quality of supplied water) (UNICEF & GWP 2014; Sisto et al. 2016) and sanitation and hygiene practices followed by the communities (GWP 2014). In any locality or region, changes in conditions with regard to any of the above-mentioned services that protect human health can cause public health hazards in the form of water-related diseases—viz., water-borne diseases, water-based diseases, water carried diseases and diseases spread by water-borne insect vectors, depending on how far the communities are vulnerable. The magnitude of climate-induced hazards that affect water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) system through changes in water availability with respect to quantity and quality is determined by a host of natural and physical factors.1 For instance, low to medium rainfall regions may experience high year-to-year rainfall variability, whereas there could be high dependability in high rainfall regions. In hard rock areas of Deccan plateau, which also coincide with low to medium rainfall region, monsoon failure results in groundwater droughts. The degree of exposure of WASH systems to climate hazards is determined by a range of natural, physical, socio-economic and institutional factors. The exposure could be in the form of reduced water supply from the public system for domestic needs, including personal hygiene and sanitation. This could be due to one or more of the following reasons: reduced water availability in natural system because of hydrological drought; breakage/damage to water supply pipelines during heavy storms, cyclones and floods; damage to sanitation infrastructure (toilets, sewerage systems) due to cyclones and floods; damage to improved water sources and sanitation facilities due to flooding and cyclones; contamination of potable water carried through pipes from sewage due to pipeline breakage, contamination of water in shallow drinking water wells. The degree of community vulnerability to climate-induced risks in water supply and sanitation is determined by a whole range of natural, social, cultural, economic and institutional factors (Kabir et al. 2016a). This vulnerability can be in the form of: lack of alternate sources of fresh water private wells, ponds and hand pumps for drinking, domestic and livestock uses; absence of buffer storage of water at the household level; lack of facilities for treatment of contaminated water for potability; The hazards can be in the form of hydrological droughts, floods, cyclones, waterlogging of low-lying areas, severe contamination of surface water bodies and shallow aquifers with biological matter and pathogens, groundwater depletion with resultant drying up of reservoirs, and the like.

1

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lack of financial resources with the communities and households (HHs) to create temporary infrastructure for sanitation; absence of information and community systems available to spread warnings about incoming floods, cyclones, potential water contamination, damage to water infrastructure, spread of water-borne diseases, and the areas likely to be affected; poor or lack of access to medical facilities to protect members of the communities from water-borne diseases; and absence of social ingenuity within the communities to overcome crisis situations arising out of WASH hazards. India displays one of the greatest spatial heterogeneities in hydrological regimes, geo-hydrological environments, climates and physiographical conditions, and socioecologic and cultural environments, and therefore offers a great challenge to water resource managers and policy makers. The mean annual rainfall in the country varies from as low as 100 mm in Jaisalmer of western Rajasthan to 11,700 mm in Cherrapunji in Meghalaya; the country’s river systems include one of the most complex and mightiest river systems of the world, i.e. Brahmaputra, to some of several hundreds of marginalized ephemeral streams which see flows only for a few hours in the whole year. Its groundwater resources include the richest Gangetic alluvium to some of the lowest yielding hard rock aquifers in the plateau. Its human habitations extend from mountainous sub-Himalayan region to the coastal plains. Its farming systems include one of the most productive farming systems of the world to one which is as poor as the rain-fed farming systems of eastern India (Kumar 2018). Its agricultural withdrawal of groundwater is as high as 1280 m3 per capita per annum in water-scarce Punjab to as low as 130 m3 per capita per annum in water-rich Bihar (Kumar 2003). Its urban areas include those which are as densely populated as Mumbai and Kolkata with 30,000 persons per sq. km, to one which is sparsely populated with 500 persons per sq.km. All these make water management decisions extremely complex not only for the country as a whole, but for regions and sometimes even localities (Kumar 2018). There is large regional disparity in socio-economic development in the country— from very backward states (Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar) to highly developed states (Kerala and Punjab) (Mukherjee and Chakraborty 2014); from highly urbanized states to states (Maharashtra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu) that are mostly rural (Bihar and Odisha). Cultural features display wide differences. The institutional and policy frameworks governing the performance of public utilities, especially those in the water supply and sanitation sector also show significant variations. From a climate-risk perspective, while many large areas, especially in the northwestern, western and peninsular India are drought-prone, many areas in eastern India are flood-prone (Das et al. 2007), both having implications for water supply, sanitation and hygiene. The degree of water-related climate hazards (be it severity of droughts or intensity of floods) experienced changes from region to region. But what is most striking is the remarkable difference in the public health impacts of these hazards between regions facing same magnitude of hazard, a clear indication of the difference in the degree of exposure of water supply and sanitation systems, and community vulnerability, both influencing the water supply, sanitation and hygienerelated risks those regions experience. Given the variations in climate-induced

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water-related hazards, and the potential variations in the degree of exposure of the WASH systems and the community vulnerability to the disruptions in WASH services, mapping of climate-induced risk in WASH is essential for targeting interventions for making water supply and sanitation systems climate-resilient. This chapter discusses development of an analytical framework for assessing the public health risk associated with disruptions in WASH services affected by climateinduced hazards related to water such as droughts and floods. For the development of the framework, the factors influencing the three different dimensions such as hazard, exposure and vulnerability in rural water and sanitation were identified and grouped as natural, physical, socio-economic and institutional. These factors and the relevant indicative variables are identified based on an extensive review of international literature and expert knowledge. Various factors that influence climate-induced hazard, and exposure and vulnerability of the communities to these hazards, and the in which they influence them are discussed, and the quantitative criteria for assigning values for these variables are also explained.

7.2

Climate Risk and Resilience: Review of Literature

A review of available literature was undertaken to identify the factors that influence climate-induced hazards in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH); exposure of water and sanitation systems to the hazards; vulnerability of communities to the problems associated with poor water supply and sanitation resulting from such exposure; and how these factors influence the magnitude of hazards, and degree of HHs exposure and vulnerability. The review is grouped under two themes: (1) regional studies on impact of climate risks for WASH sector; and (2) development and application of vulnerability indices to assess climate-related hazards.

7.2.1

Studies on Climate Risk in WASH

Sisto et al. (2016) in their study evaluate the risk during sudden reduction in water supply in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area posed by climate threats and the vulnerability of its water supply system. The authors use long-term precipitation, water supply and water availability data to show that the region has been subject to recurring period of exceptionally low precipitation and scarce surface water availability. The study identifies that during 1998–2013 the water supply system almost collapsed as reservoirs have deficient water due to abnormal dry weather condition. Precipitation data for the region was used to compute the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to detect exceptionally dry or wet periods in the history. The Net Volume Index (NVI) was used to analyse vulnerability of the water supply systems by measuring the utilization rate of the system’s effective storage capacity at a particular point in time.

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The authors argue that increased reliance on surface sources may have enhanced the water supply system’s exposure to climate hazard. It is argued that surface water is more sensitive to climate variability than groundwater, especially in the short term, as low precipitation often results in scarce surface runoff and reservoir inflows. The study points to the existence of substantial water crisis risk in the region due to climate variability and its water supply system vulnerability. Climate change is expected to intensify this risk, while continued growth activity will amplify the consequences of a future water crisis. The authors argue that the risk associated with water shortages would increase in future due to climate change. Gallina et al. (2016) review existing assessment methodologies for different types of risks used by different organizations for development of a single multi-risk methodology for climate change. This study reviews different research studies relating to multiple natural hazards assessment (e.g. flood, storms, droughts, etc.) affecting the same region in different time periods. This study mainly focuses on the identification of multiple hazard types using different qualitative and quantitative approaches. The study reveals different assessment methodologies that capture vulnerability of multiple targets to natural hazards through vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall conclusion from the study is that multi-risk approaches do not capture the effects of climate change. They mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability. The main challenge is to develop a comprehensive list of indicators that is dynamic enough to account for different climate-induced hazards and risks. Satta et al. (2016) have developed an index-based methodology for assessing climate-related hazards. This regional coastal risk index was applied to a coastal area in Mediterranean Morocco at a regional scale. It provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management. The tool explores the effects and extensions of the climate-related and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables to identify areas where the likelihood of risk is relatively high. A panel of scientific experts and local policy makers were involved for assigning weights to each of coastal risk index indicators. The experts were asked to assign a score between 1 and 5 (5 ¼ high risk, 1 ¼ low risk) which described the relative contribution of each variable to the hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The results were presented on a geographical information system (GIS) platform. The study provided a set of maps that allowed identification of areas having higher risk from climate-related hazards. A handbook prepared by WaterAid and Network for Information, Response and Preparedness Activities on Disaster (NIRAPAD) (2012) focuses on safe water supply, sanitation and hygiene practices for rural areas in the wake of climate change. It highlights the basic concepts of the disaster risks in relation to climate change. Further, it discusses about the existing national policy structures and institutional systems for ensuring safe water, sanitation and hygiene practices as well the strategies to cope with the climate change disaster-induced uncertainty. The strategies to manage climate change and disaster-induced uncertainties are as follows: (a) Use of appropriate and effective technologies to ensure water supply, sanitation services and hygiene practices in the changing circumstances. The current and

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the traditional sources of water, and traditional technologies should be assessed to understand whether and to what extent they could serve the purposes. Cost sharing through economic services. Disaster risk and climate risk will increase the cost of safe water supply and sanitation services. Therefore, service pricing should follow economic principles and make the consumers share a part of the cost. Create cost-benefit awareness, as rising costs of the services may negatively influence the demand for water at household and personal levels. Subsidize the poor and disadvantaged HHs as they may find it difficult to bear the increasing cost of the services. Therefore, affordability should be carefully assessed in promoting new technologies. It is important to ensure that the economic pricing doesn’t deprive the disadvantaged and the poor HHs. Accountability and community participation should be involved in both planning and implementation processes. They should be built in at national level planning process. There is a need for the local government bodies to take part in supply and distribution of water and sanitation programme. Private and voluntary agencies could also participate in their efforts.

7.2.2

Various Indices on Climate Vulnerability and Resilience

Study (A) Multiple Use Water Services to Reduce Poverty and Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change: A Collaborative Action Research Project in Maharashtra, India (IRAP, GSDA & UNICEF 2013)

Study region Maharashtra

Vulnerability index Multiple Use Water Systems (MUWS) Vulnerability Index

Indicators Twenty parameters were identified and grouped under six sub-indices: A. Water Supply & Use (Access to water supply source, Frequency of water supply, Ownership of alternative source ‘owned’, Access to other alternative source, Capacity of domestic storage systems, Quantity of water used, Quality of domestic water supplies, Total monthly water bill as a percentage of monthly income) B. Family

Methodology and outcome The MUWS Vulnerability Index is composed of six sub-indices which were identified based on expert knowledge and literature review. For computing the index, a survey was undertaken covering rural HHs in Maharashtra. The index has a maximum value of 10.0 representing lower vulnerability and minimum value of 0.0 representing higher vulnerability.

(continued)

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(B) An indexbased method to assess the risks of climaterelated hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan (Satta et al. 2016)

Study region

Coastal zone of Tetouan Mediterranean Moroccan Coast

Vulnerability index

Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS)

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Indicators

Methodology and outcome

Occupation & Social Profile (Family occupation, Social Profile, Health expenditure), C. Social Institutions and Ingenuity (Social institutions and Ingenuity), D. Climate & Drought Proneness (Climate of the regions, Aridity and drought proneness), E. Condition of Water Resources (Surface and groundwater availability in the area, Variability on resource conditions, Seasonal variation, Vulnerability of the resource to pollution or contamination) and F. Financial Stability Nineteen variables were categorized under three sub-indices: A. Coastal Hazards (Sea level rise, storms, Mean annual max daily precipitation, Droughts, population growth, Tourism arrivals), B. Coastal Vulnerability (Landforms, Coastal slope, Historical shoreline change, Elevation, distance from the shoreline, River flow regulation, Ecosystem health, Education level, Age of population, Coastal protection

A panel of scientific experts and local policy makers were involved for assigning weights to each identified indicator for developing a coastal risk index. The experts assigned a score between 1 and 5 (5 ¼ high risk, 1 ¼ low risk) which described the relative contribution of each variable to hazard, vulnerability and exposure. The index values were used to prepare maps for identification of coastal areas with relative (continued)

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Study region

Vulnerability index

(C) The SocioEconomic Vulnerability Index: A pragmatic approach for assessing climate change led risks—A case study in the south-western coastal Bangladesh (Ahsan and Warener 2014)

Seven unions of Koyra Upazilla, SouthWestern Coastal Bangladesh

Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SeVI)

(D) Climate Change and rural communities in Ghana:

Four ecological zones of Ghana

Social Vulnerability Index (SVI)

Indicators structures), C. Coastal Exposure (Land cover, Population density) Five domains consisting of 27 indicators: A. Demographic (Population density, Percentage of old and children in sample, MaleFemale ratio in sample, etc.), B. Social (Percentage of illiterate HHs in sample, Percentage of HHs not having brick house in sample, etc.), C. Economic (Percentage of HHs depends on natural source for their income (fisheries, agriculture, etc.) in sample, Percentage of consumption expenditure on food in sample, etc.), D. Physical (Percentage of HHs not getting electricity, Percentage of HHs not having sanitary latrine, Percentage of HHs using ponds, etc.), E. Exposure to Natural Hazards (Percentage of HHs not willing to go cyclone shelter, Percentage of HHs not having shelter in cyclone shelter or with neighbours, etc.) Six indicators are grouped under three domains: A. Demographic

Methodology and outcome higher risk from climate-related hazards. The SeVI was developed using five domains which include physical, economic, social, demographic and exposure to natural hazards. Both primary and secondary data were used for development of the index. Indicators were identified based on the Focus Group Discussions (FGD) and through administering a questionnaire on 60 HHs from each region. The experts gave a relative weightage to each indicator, between 1 and 5 on the basis of importance of each indicator.

Authors use six demographic, social and economic indicators in (continued)

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Vulnerability index

Social vulnerability, impacts, adaptations and policy implications. (Dumenu and Obeng 2016)

(E) Measuring household vulnerability to climate-induced stresses in pastoral rangelands in Kenya; implications for resilience programming (Opiyo et al. 2014)

Indicators (Household size, Literacy), B. Economic (Diversified sources of income, Climate sensitive occupation) and C. Social (Access to climate change information, Dependence on forest resources)

Turkana County, NorthWestern rangelands of Kenya

Household Vulnerability Index (HVI) matrix (Vulnerability ¼ Adaptive capacity – (Sensitivity + Exposure))

Twenty-seven indicators have been identified under three major domains: A. Social Vulnerability variables (Sex of HH head: female headed, Age of HH head: 50+ years, Experiences in the area: less than 5 years, HH size: more than 5 persons etc.), B. Economic variables (Non-firm income: HH with no firm income, Herd size in TLU: own less than 2 TLUs, Herd structure: no milking herd, Distance to Market: more than 10 km away, etc.), C. Environmental variables (Climate change: experiencing change, Temperature: experiencing increase, Drought: noticed increasing events, Flood: notice change, etc.)

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Methodology and outcome assessing social vulnerability to climate change. Indicators were identified through expert judgement. Primary data was collected through questionnaire and interviews of 196 HHs in 14 rural communities. Qualitative and quantitative tools were used for data analysis. The study uses various statistical and economic tools to measure vulnerability in the region. Twentyseven socio-economic and biophysical indicators were considered which were identified through questionnaire survey of 302 HHs. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was used for assigning weightage to each identified indicator and compute HVI to classify HH according to their level of vulnerability.

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Study (F) Climate Disaster Resilience of Dhaka City Corporation: An Empirical assessment at Zone Level (Parvin and Shaw 2011)

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Study region Dhaka city, Bangladesh

Vulnerability index Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI)

Indicators The authors have identified 125 variables under 25 parameters in five main domains. A. Physical (Electricity, Water, Sanitation and solid waste disposal, Accessibility to roads, Housing and Land use) B. Social (Population, Health, Education and Awareness, Social Capital, Community preparedness during a disaster) C. Economic (Income, Employment, Household assets Finance and saving, Budget and subsidy) D. Institutional (Mainstreaming of DRR and CCA, Effectiveness of cities crisis management framework, Knowledge dissemination and management, Institutional collaboration with other organizations and stakeholders, during disasters, Good Governance). E. Natural and related Parameters (Intensity/severity of natural hazards, Frequency of natural hazards, Ecosystem services, Land use in natural terms, Environmental policies)

Methodology and outcome Authors use Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI) for analysing risk for 10 zones of Bangladesh. The data was collected by administering questionnaire on the planners involved in preparation of Detailed Area Plan (2009) in Dhaka city.

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Study (G) Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change (Heltberg and Osmolovskiy 2010)

Study region Tajikistan

(H) Water and Poverty in Rural China: Developing an Instrument to assess

Rural areas of China

Vulnerability index Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI ¼ Adaptation + Exposure+Sensitivity/3)

Water, Economy, Investment and Learning Assessment

Indicators Three determinants (Adaptive capacity, Sensitivity and Exposure) consists of 23 indicators A. Adaptive Capacity (HH consumption per capita, Share of population with higher education, Negative Herfindahl index of income diversification, Share of HH having trust in people, etc.), B. Sensitivity (Negative of the amount of irrigated land per capita, Herfindahl index of agricultural land use diversification, share of HHs depending on agriculture, Share of population under age 5 etc.), C. Exposure (Variability of average temperature in month, Variability of average precipitation in month, Range between maximum and minimum average temperature in month, Frequency of extremely hot months, when average temperature higher than 30  C, Frequency of extremely cold months, etc.) Twenty-three sub-components identified under nine components A. Water Resources

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Methodology and outcome Authors map areas which are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability. Vulnerability index has been derived as a function of the exposure to climate change variability and natural disasters; sensitive to impacts of that exposure and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future climate changes. The index can be used for decision making about adaptation responses that might benefit from an assessment of how and why vulnerability to climate change varies regionally.

The paper describes the theoretical developmental of a multidimensional, (continued)

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Study region

Vulnerability index Indicator (WEILAI)

Indicators (Primary HH water source for HH use and limited HH agricultural use, etc.), B. Water Access (Is water affordable if HH were required to pay, Distance travelled to collect water, Time needed to collect water, etc.), C. Water resource management capacity (Existence of a water user group in AV and awareness of it, HH’s participation in any type of water management/ use, etc.), D. Sanitation (Type of sanitation facilities, HH perceptions of their sanitation, etc.), E. Education (Children access to education, Student/ teacher ratio, Teachers level of training), F. Health and Hygiene (Access to healthcare, Affordability of healthcare, etc.), G. Food Security (Area of arable land HH uses/had access to, HH is a net food consumer or exporter, etc.), H. Environment (Degree of erosion due to environmental deterioration, Secondary measures of deteriorating environment around HHs: insects, etc.)

Methodology and outcome water-focused, thematic indicator of rural poverty. It is based on the identification of indicators, assigning weightage to indicators, methodology, field studies and statistical analysis. For the purpose, 534 HHs across 71 villages in China were surveyed. PCA was used for assigning weightage to each indicator. Based on the assigned weightage, the vulnerability index was developed.

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Study (I) Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Flood Hazards in Downstream Area of Mono Basin, SouthEastern Togo: Yoto District (Kissi et al. 2015)

Study region North-East Maritime Region, Yoto District

(J) Identifying and Visualizing Resilience to Flooding via a Composite Flooding Disaster Resilience Index (Perfrement and Lloyd n.d.)

Sixteen municipalities in the Greater Amsterdam

Vulnerability index Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI)

Flood Disaster Resilience Index (FDRI)

Indicators Twenty-four indicators identified in three sub-domains: A. Exposure (Flood frequency, Flood Duration, Flood water level, Closeness to river body, Altitude), B. Susceptibility (Percentage of Education: no schooling, Household size (more than 10%), Female headed, Farmers, Poor building material, HH with affected land, Community Awareness, HH coping mechanisms, Emergency services, HH past experience, HH preparedness), C. Resilience (Percentage of Warning systems, HH perception on flood risk, HH evacuation capability, HH flood training, Recovery capacity, Recovery time, Long-term resident 10 years +, Environmental recovery) The FDRI has developed 11 indicators in four domains: A. Social Environment (Age, Transportation Access, Net Migration), B. Built Environment (Medical Capacity, Transportation network), C. Natural Environment (Runoff, Soil Permeability, Elevation (water

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Methodology and outcome Focus is on development of vulnerability framework and distinguishing three main components (exposure, susceptibility and resilience), to allow an in-depth analysis and interpolation of indicators. For normalization, the actual data was transformed to a standardized score (between 0 and 1).

Study developed a composite flooding disaster resilience index (FDRI) by aggregating individual resilience indicators under social, natural, built and economic categories. Sixteen municipalities across the Greater Amsterdam region were surveyed. The FDRI is a single figure summarizing (continued)

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Study region

Vulnerability index

Indicators level)), D. Economic Environment (Employment, Wealth, Economic damage for flood volumes)

Methodology and outcome a region’s status on 11 indicators that influence the resilience of a region to natural hazards. A panel of 18 flood experts were asked to rate each indicator based on its correlation to the resilience level. Each indicator was ranked between 1 and 4.

Source: Based on review of international literature

7.3 7.3.1

An Index for Assessing Climate-Induced Risk in Water and Sanitation Index Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Risk in WASH

For development of the index to assess climate-induced risk in WASH, the factors influencing the three different dimensions of risk, i.e. hazard, exposure and vulnerability, in rural water and sanitation sector were identified and grouped as natural, physical, socio-economic and institutional factors. These factors and relevant variables were identified based on the literature review, expert knowledge, and understanding of the study regions. Various factors and the ways in which they can influence climate-induced hazard, and exposure and vulnerability of the communities to these hazards are discussed in the subsequent sub-sections. A summary of discussion is also presented in Table 7.1.

7.3.2

Factors Influencing Climate-Induced Hazard in WASH

Occurrence of hazards, droughts, floods and cyclone are mainly influenced by natural factors. These include rainfall and its variability, flood proneness, aridity and overall renewable water availability. Above the normal rainfall usually reduces the probability of drought occurrence and helps in relieving water scarcity and vice versa. As pointed out by Maliva and Missimer (2012), areas which receive low

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Table 7.1 Identified factors influencing climate-induced risk in rural water and sanitation

Sub-indices S. no (factor) Variable (indicators) A. Hazard sub-index 1 Natural Rainfall

Rainfall variability

Flood proneness

Aridity

Annual renewable water availability

B. Exposure sub-index 1 Natural Depth to groundwater table

Temperature and humidity

Groundwater stock

2

Physical

Characteristics of water resources

Rationale In high rainfall areas, the drought impacts on hydrology will be less as compared to low rainfall areas and vice versa in low rainfall areas. In areas of high rainfall variability, the frequency of occurrence of severe droughts will be higher ‘Flood-prone’ areas are more susceptible to hazards associated with high rainfall Impact of droughts in areas having high aridity in terms of hydrological changes will be more as compared to areas of low aridity Renewable water availability of more than 1700 cum/capita/year is considered as secure Groundwater at shallow depth will be susceptible to biological contamination during floods In areas with cold and humid climate there is high chance of water and food contamination due to unhygienic conditions and spreading of insect vectors Act as buffer during droughts. Normally available in the alluvial areas, and as valley fills along rivers Perennial water source would significantly reduce community exposure to droughts

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive) Negative

Positive

Positive

Positive

Negative

Negative

Positive

Negative

Negative

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Table 7.1 (continued)

S. no

Sub-indices (factor)

Variable (indicators) Condition of water supply system

Rationale Old water supply systems are more susceptible to disruption and damage during floods and cyclones

Provision of buffer storage of water in reservoirs per capita Proportion of HHs covered by tap water supply

Reduces exposure to water scarcity conditions during droughts Reduces chances of contamination of water during collection and storage Reduces chances of vectorborne diseases through food contamination and more Reduces severity of floods

Proportion of HHs having access to modern toilets

3

4

Socioeconomic

Institutional and policy

Flood control measures such as embankments, dykes, dams and water pumping facilities Proportion of people living in low-lying areas Proportion of people having access to water supply source within the dwelling premise Hand-washing before and after food and after toilet use

Existence of policy to hire private tankers for emergency water supply Provision for tanker water supply in rural areas in terms of number of tankers Disaster risk reduction measures available

C. Vulnerability sub-index 1 Natural Climate

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive) Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Relatively more exposed to flood hazards Less exposure to risk posed by droughts or floods

Positive

Hand-washing before and after food intake and after toilet use will help reduce chances of food contamination with faecal matter. Help community to face water stress induced by droughts Increases community’s ability to tide over the crisis caused by reduced water supply from public systems Helps community to prepare better for any adverse eventuality

Negative

In cold and humid areas, communities will be more prone to flood and water scarcity related health risks

Positive

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

(continued)

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Table 7.1 (continued)

S. no

2

Sub-indices (factor)

Socioeconomic

Variable (indicators)

Rationale In hot and arid areas, communities are more prone to heat stroke, dehydration

Population density

High population density increases vulnerability Vulnerability will be high for those who lack wherewithal to have access to alternate sources of water including purchased water Undernourishment in general and malnourishment, especially among children, make community more vulnerable Good access to primary health facilities make community less vulnerable Physical growth of children (under the age 5), an indicator of the nutritional wellbeing of the population, influences vulnerability to diseases Improve community adaptive capacity

Positive

Improves community adaptive capacity Decreases community vulnerability to diseases

Negative

Proportion of people living under poverty

Proportion of people who are unhealthy

Access to primary health services Percentage of children under the age of 5 with stunting (height-for-age)

3

Institutional and policy

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive) Positive

Ability to provide relief and rehabilitation measures for floods and cyclones (number of agencies, including government, private and NGOs) Social ingenuity and cohesion Adequate number of primary and other health infrastructure

Positive

Positive

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Source: Developed by authors

annual rainfall are at greater risk of having frequent droughts. In India, inter-annual variability in rainfall is found to be higher in regions of lower magnitude of (mean) annual rainfall (Sharma 2012). Hence, such regions are likely to experience droughts more frequently as compared to those with lower variability (Kumar et al. 2006, 2008).

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Further, given the nature of relationship between rainfall and runoff in semi-arid and arid tropics, the impact of meteorological droughts in terms of hydrological stress in areas experiencing low (mean) annual rainfall is greater as compared to their counterparts receiving higher (mean) annual rainfall, for the same intensity of drought (in terms of SPI) (Source: based on Deshpande et al. 2016; James et al. 2015). Flood-prone areas are at a greater risk of recurring floods due to excessively high rainfall (Brouwer et al. 2007). Heavy rainfalls in the area can have adverse effect on surface water quality and groundwater which can contaminate water supply (Zimmerman et al. 2008; Brouwer et al. 2007). Another factor that influences water scarcity (during droughts) is the overall availability of annual renewable water in a region (Rijsberman 2006). Renewable water availability of more than 1700 cum/capita/year is considered as secure (Falkenmark et al. 1989).

7.3.3

Factors Influencing Community’s Exposure to Hazards

Community exposure to any hazard is influenced by several factors. Natural factors include depth to water table, climate and groundwater stock. Groundwater at shallow depth will be susceptible to biological contamination during floods. Large stock of groundwater can play a vital role in buffering the effects of the risks posed during droughts (Calow et al. 2010). In areas with cold climate, exposure of community to the risks posed during a bad rainfall year will be low as overall water requirements will be less (Kabir et al. 2016a, b). Areas with humid climate have a greater chance of outbreak of water-borne diseases during floods (Githeko et al. 2000). There are several physical factors influencing community exposure to hazards and they include characteristics of the water source, age of the water supply system, provision of buffer storage of water in reservoirs per capita, proportion of HHs covered by tap water supply, proportion of HHs having access to modern toilets, flood control measures such as dams and water pumping facilities. A perennial water source would significantly reduce community exposure to droughts. Further, an ageing water supply system is at a greater risk of damage and disruption during natural calamities such as floods and cyclones. Adequate provision of buffer water storage in reservoirs is one other important factor that can reduce exposure to water scarcity conditions during droughts (Kumar 2010; Kumar et al. 2016; McCartney and Smakhtin 2010). Similarly, HHs’ access to tap water supply and modern toilets will help in counteracting prolonged exposure to climate-induced risks (Hunter et al. 2010; Montgomery and Elimelech 2007; WHO 2002). Further, flood control measures such as embankments, dykes, dams and water pumping infrastructure will help in reducing severity of floods. Socio-economic factors in the context include the proportion of people living in low-lying areas and the proportion of people having access to water supply source within the dwelling premise. Low-lying areas, due to its topographical disadvantage,

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will be more prone to floods (Patz and Kovats 2002). Nevertheless, people having access to water supply within their premises will have less exposure to risk posed by droughts or floods, owing to the fact that there will be lesser chance of water contamination that normally happens during collection, conveyance and storage, if the source is available (WHO 2002). Also, people who follow good hygiene will also be less exposed to risks such as food contamination. Institutional and policy factors also play an important role in regulating community exposure to climate-induced risks. Policy to hire private tankers for emergency water supply in rural areas and number of such tankers being made available will help community to face water stress induced by droughts. Further, provision of disaster risk reduction measures such as flood and cyclone warning, drought prediction and evacuation measures will help community to prepare better for any adverse eventuality (Pollner et al. 2010).

7.3.4

Factors Influencing Community Vulnerability to Hazards

Community vulnerability factors to hazards are mainly natural, socio-economic and institutional in nature. Climate is the single most important natural factor that influence in the context. For instance, cold climate and humidity increase floodrelated health risks such as diarrhoea caused by bacteriological contamination of water and food (Haines et al. 2006; Githeko et al. 2000). Inadequate personal and community hygiene resulting from water shortages can result in diseases such as diarrhoea (Esrey et al. 1985; Howard and Bartram 2005). But in hot, arid and semiarid climates breeding of water-related insect vectors that can cause such diseases would be less (Hunter 2003). Hot and arid areas are more prone to drought-related health risks such as dehydration (Haines et al. 2006). Population density is a key socio-economic variable that affects community vulnerability to the health risks associated with climate-related hazards. More densely populated areas have greater faecal loadings within the environment, and these are associated with greater vulnerability to infectious disease (Woodward et al. 2000). Burden of water-borne diseases is often closely linked to poverty (Fass 1993; Stephens et al. 1997) and malnutrition. The poor tend to be more vulnerable to diseases and have least access to basic services (WHO & UNICEF 2000). This could be due to high proportion of them living under poverty, lack the wherewithal to have access to alternate sources of water, and are also generally unhealthy. There is greater prevalence of undernourishment in general and malnourishment among children. Nevertheless, better access to primary health services will make them less vulnerable. People with malnutrition are more vulnerable to water-borne diseases.

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Institutional and policy factors such as availability of greater number of institutions with ability to provide relief and rehabilitation measures to people affected during floods and cyclones (including government, private and NGOs) improve community adaptive capacity against climate-induced vulnerabilities. Similarly, presence of adequate number of public health infrastructure decreases population vulnerability to the severity of diseases caused during hazards (Haines et al. 2006). Finally, social ingenuity also matters in its adapting to natural disasters and reducing the vulnerability. Social cohesion, which is characteristic of homogeneous communities, also helps in adaptation and vulnerability reduction (IRAP, GSDA & UNICEF 2013). The matrix in Table 7.2 suggests the quantitative criteria for assigning values to various sub-indices for computing the climate risk index for different types of areas.

7.4

Computation of the Composite Index

The composite index has three sub-indices (one for hazard, one for exposure and one for vulnerability). Each sub-index has several variables (indicators) whose numerical values (scores) together characterize the attribute represented by the sub-index (say, climate hazard) in quantitative terms. To begin with, a maximum score of ‘3’ (three) will be assigned to any variable in the case of highest risk situation, and the minimum score of ‘1’ (one) will be assigned to the variable for the lowest risk situation. For obtaining numerical value of each sub-index, score for each indicator will be added up. It can be represented as: Sub Index value ¼

Xn

S i¼1 i

ð7:1Þ

Where S is the product of score and weightage obtained by each variable under the sub-index and n is the total number of variables (indicators) considered for assessing the value of each sub-index. Values computed for each sub-index will be normalized by dividing it by the highest possible value possible for that sub-index. For instance, a sub-index which has five independent variables (indicators) will have a maximum computed value of 15 (i.e. 5  3). This means the highest normalized value possible for any sub-index will be 1.0. The composite climate risk index for water and sanitation (RWASH) will be computed by multiplying the values of the three sub-indices viz., hazard (HWASHSI), exposure (EWASH-SI) and vulnerability (VWASH-SI). It can be mathematically represented as: RWASHINDEX ¼ HWASH  SUB  INDEX  EWASH  SUB  INDEX  VWASH  SUB  INDEX ð7:2Þ

Positive

Negative

Aridity

Annual renewable water availability

Negative

Positive

Flood proneness

B. Exposure sub-index Natural Depth to groundwater table

Positive

Negative

Rainfall variability

Sub-index (factors) Variable (indicators) A. Hazard sub-index Natural Rainfall

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive)

Depth to groundwater table is greater than or equal to 30 m

Renewable water availability of more than equal to 1700 cum/capita/year

Humid-sub-humid

Probability of occurrence of flood less than 10%

Average annual rainfall greater than or equal to 1000 mm Coefficient of variation in rainfall is less than 17%

1 ¼ Low

Score

Depth to groundwater table is between 5 and 30 m

Renewable water availability of between 1000 and 1700 cum/capita/year

Average annual rainfall between 500 and 1000 mm. Coefficient of variation in rainfall is equal to/between 17% and 40% Probability of occurrence of flood is between 10% and 33% Semi-arid

2 ¼ Moderate

Depth to groundwater table is less than equal to 5 m

Renewable water availability of less than equal to 1000 cum/capita/year

Arid to Hyper-arid

Probability of occurrence of flood more than 33%

Average annual rainfall less than equal to 500 mm. Coefficient of variation in rainfall is greater than 40%

3 ¼ High

Score given

(continued)

The exposure is in the form of

As per guidelines of IMD

As per guidelines of IMD

The hazard is drought

Remarks

Table 7.2 Matrix for computing the values of various Indices for assessing the climate-induced risk in water and sanitation in Maharashtra

7 A Framework for Assessing Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and. . . 199

Physical

Sub-index (factors)

Negative

Negative

Condition of the water supply system

Negative

Groundwater stock

Characteristics of natural water resources

Positive

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive)

Temperature and humidity

Variable (indicators)

Table 7.2 (continued)

Perennial water source with low inter-annual variability (e.g. river) New water supply pipeline systems (less than 5 years)

Groundwater stock is five times more than annual recharge

Temperature ranging between 30 and 35  C; Humidity ranging from 30  5% to 50  3%

1 ¼ Low

Score

Medium aged water supply pipeline systems (between 5 and 15 years)

Seasonal water sources (ephemeral rivers, lakes, ponds, etc.) Old aged water supply pipelines systems (more than 15 years)

Temperature ranging between 23 and 27  C; Humidity ranging from 60  8% to 80  6% most favourable condition for unhygienic conditions Groundwater stock is equal to or less than the annual recharge

Temperature ranging between 27 and 30  C and Humidity ranging 30  5% to 50  3%

Groundwater Stock is two times more than the annual recharge Perennial source with high inter-annual variability

3 ¼ High

2 ¼ Moderate

Score given

As per guidelines of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB)

bacteriological contamination

Remarks

200 M. Dinesh Kumar et al.

Institutional and policy

Socioeconomic

Negative

Negative

Negative

Proportion of HHs covered by tap water supply

Proportion of HHs having access to modern toilets

Flood control measures such as embankments, dykes, dams and water pumping facilities Proportion of people living in low-lying areas Proportion of people having access to water supply source within the dwelling premise Hand-washing before eating or preparing food and after toilet use Existence of policy to hire private tankers

Negative

Negative

Negative

Positive

Negative

Provision of buffer storage of water in reservoirs per capita

Less than or equal to 25% of people living in low-lying areas More than 75% of people access to water supply source within the dwelling premise Hand-washing before eating or preparing food and after toilet use Policy exists to hire private tankers for

More than 90% of HHs having access to improved sanitation and usage is more than 90% Flood control measures available

More than 75% of HHs are covered by tap water supply

Provision of buffer storage in a reservoir minimum 36 m3/ capita/year

25–50% of people living in low-lying areas 40–75% of people having access to water supply source within the dwelling premise Hand-washing after toilet use only

60–80% of HHs having access to improved sanitation and usage is between 70% and 90%

40–60% of HHs are covered by tap water supply

Provision of buffer storage in a reservoir between 15m3 cum/ capita/year

Greater than or equal to 50% of people living in low-lying areas Less than 25% of people having access to water supply source within the dwelling premise No hand-washing after food/no handwashing after toilet usage No policy exists to hire private tankers

Less than equal to 40% of HHs are covered by tap water supply Less than equal to 60% of HHs having access to improved sanitation and usage is more than 70% No Flood control measures available

Provision of buffer storage in a reservoir less than 9 m3 m/capita/year

(continued)

7 A Framework for Assessing Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and. . . 201

Disaster risk reduction measures available

for emergency water supply Provision for tanker water supply in rural areas in terms of no. of tankers

Variable (indicators)

Socioeconomic

Population density

C. Vulnerability sub-index Natural Climate

Sub-index (factors)

Table 7.2 (continued)

Positive

Positive

Positive

Negative

Negative

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive)

Population Density less than 200 persons/sq. km

Temperature ranging between 30 and 35  C; humidity ranging from 30  5% to 50  3%/ Mean annual temperature less than 33  C and humidity above 90%

Disaster risk reduction force available within a radius of 100 km

emergency water supply More than 1 tanker for 20 HHs

1 ¼ Low

Score

Temperature ranging between 27 and 30  C; humidity ranging from 30  5% to 50  3%/ Mean annual temperature between 33 and 40  C and humidity between 50% and 65% Population Density in the range of 200–500 person/sq. km

Disaster reduction force available within a radius of 100–500 km radius

1 tanker for 20–50HHs

2 ¼ Moderate

More than 500 persons/sq. km

Temperature ranging between 23 and 27  C and humidity ranging 60  8% to 80  6%/ Temperature less than 4046  C and humidity less than 50%

Disaster risk reduction force available outside 500 km radius

for emergency water supply Less than one tanker for 50 HHs

3 ¼ High

Score given

1 tanker capacity of 7000 litres meet requirement of 20 HHs (70 litres/ capita/day)

Remarks

202 M. Dinesh Kumar et al.

Adequate number of primary and other health infrastructure

Settled and homogenous communities, exposed to natural disasters One Sub Health Centre covered 3000–5000 of rural population

Negative

Negative

More than one NGO for 1000 people

Negative

Percentage of children under the age of 5 with stunting (low height-for-age ratio)

Negative

Negative

Access to primary health services

Ability to provide relief and rehabilitation measures for floods and cyclones (no. of agencies, including government, private and NGOs) Social ingenuity and cohesion

Infant mortality rate less than equal to 12.0 (per 1000 people) More than 60% of people having access to primary health services Average height of children below the age of 5 as a % of the median is 95–110

Positive

Proportion of people who are unhealthy

Source: Developed by authors

Institutional and policy

Less than equal to 25% of people living under poverty

Proportion of people living under poverty

Settled, but heterogeneous communities exposed to natural disasters One Sub Health Centre covered 6000–8000 of rural population

One NGO for 1000–2000 people

Average height of children below the age of five as a % of the median is 85–89

Infant mortality rate between 12.0 and 60.0 (per 1000 people) 25–60% of people having access to primary health services

25–60% of people living under poverty

Settled, but heterogeneous communities not exposed to natural disasters One Sub Health Centre covered more than 8000 of rural population

Less than 25% of people having access to primary health services Average height of children below the age of five as a % of the median is less than 85 Less than one NGO for 2000 people

Infant Mortality rate greater than 60.0 (per 1000 people)

Greater than 60% of people living under poverty

As per Ministry of FHW guidelines one sub-centre (health centre covered 3000–5000 rural population)

As per NGO regulations one NGO covered 600 peoples

For the median, we would consider the State as a whole

7 A Framework for Assessing Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and. . . 203

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Conclusions

In this chapter we have highlighted the need for developing an analytical framework for assessing climate-induced risk in WASH posed to different regions or localities, with vast variation in the frequency and degree of occurrence of hazards, and the potential differences in the degree of exposure of the WASH systems to the hazards, and the vulnerability of the communities to the disruptions in WASH caused by the hazard. Using an extensive review of national and international scientific literature on climate risk and climate resilience of WASH, we have identified a range of factors that influence the magnitude of hazards, the exposure of WASH systems to the risk and the community vulnerability. Subsequently, a composite index with a total of 29 parameters for assessing climate risk in WASH was developed. It has a hazard sub-index, with a total of five parameters (all natural); a sub-index for exposure, with 15 parameters (including those which are natural, physical, socio-economic, and institutional and policy related); and a sub-index for assessing ‘vulnerability’, with nine parameters (including natural, socio-economic, institutional and policy related). The next chapter will discuss the application of this index for computing climate risk in WASH at the district level for two divisions of Maharashtra.

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M. Dinesh Kumar did his B-Tech in Civil Engineering in 1988, M. E. in Water Resources Management in 1991 and Ph. D in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF; international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (US), and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala). He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters, and many journal articles. He has published in many international peerreviewed journals viz., Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Management, Int. Journal of WRD and Water Economics and Policy. He is currently also Associate Editor of Water Policy and Member of the Editorial Board of Int. Journal of WRD. His research works of global relevance are: integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water & food security challenges; climate risk in WASH; and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. Arijit Ganguly holds a master’s degree in environmental studies and resources management from TERI University, New Delhi, and a bachelor’s degree in environment and Water management from Burdwan University, West-Bengal. Arijit has 6.2 years of experience working in the fields of hydrological modeling for rivers, climate risk and resilience analysis, water quality management, water resources management, and analysis of environmental quality. Arijit was worked with several organizations such as the Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Ministry of Water Resources, RD & GR, GoI, and DHI (India) Water & Environment Pvt Ltd. He has a working knowledge of many analytical, GIS, and hydrological modeling tools. His professional interests include integrated water resources management, climate variability analysis, GIS, and environmental system analysis. Yusuf Kabir’s areas of specialization are Rural Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation, Environment, Climate Change Adaptations, and Sustainable Development. He has two post-graduate degrees and had attended several International certificate courses. His first master’s degree is in Environment Engineering and Management from India’s premier management Institute: Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management (IISWBM), and the second one is in Sustainable Development from Staffordshire University, U.K. Yusuf is a Commonwealth scholar. He has several publications in International Journals, Papers, and Books on water and sanitation issues and State Level Committee Members of different state bodies and knowledge management platforms of CSR. He is working in the Water, Sanitation and Environment sector for the last 20 years. He is with UNICEF India since 2007. Prior to that he worked with organizations like DFID, National Level NGOs, Social and Marketing research consultancy firms like GFK-MODE, ORG India Pvt Ltd. He is a commonwealth scholar and a trained policy writer from Central European University, Budapest, Hungary where he had undergone a summer course on ‘Evidence-Based Policy Formulation’. He runs a blog on Sanitation in the name of WASH Garage: Blog: http://safaiwala.blogspot.in/ Omkar Khare has over 3 years of experience working in the government sector and with an international agency. He has a graduate degree in geology and a postgraduate degree in disaster management from the Tata Institute of Social Sciences. His sector of work is disaster risk reduction. His major work has primarily been to support the Government of Maharashtra for various scheme implementations and policy planning aimed at reducing the impact of drought and other natural hazards. Currently, he is working as a State Disaster Risk Reduction Consultant for UNICEF, Mumbai, and looking after Risk Informed Programming for the state of Maharashtra.

Chapter 8

Mapping Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene in Maharashtra Arijit Ganguly, Yusuf Kabir, Omkar Khare, and Anand Ghodke

Abstract This chapter assesses the risk in WASH caused by climate-induced stresses such as droughts and floods at the district level in two divisions of Maharashtra consisting of 19 districts using the composite index of Climate Risk in WASH. The value of climate risk was assessed at the district level using data on a total of 29 indicators that correspond to a whole range of natural, physical, socioeconomic and institutional factors, influencing the three dimension of WASH risk, viz., hazard, exposure and vulnerability, collected from a wide range of secondary and primary sources. The WASH risk index was estimated to be varying from 0.22 for Chandrapur in Vidarbha division to 0.35 for Parbhani in Marathwada division. The factors influencing high climate risk in certain regions and the physical strategies to make water supply and sanitation systems climate-resilient and the capacity building needed for affecting these changes are also discussed. Keywords Maharashtra · Droughts · Floods · WASH risk assessment · Physical strategies · Capacity building

8.1

Introduction

Maharashtra is one of the most climate risk sensitive zones of India (Vedeld et al. 2014). The state displays high degree of spatial heterogeneity in climate, hydrology, geology, geo-hydrology, soils and topography, causing significant regional A. Ganguly PwC India, Kolkata, West Bengal, India Y. Kabir (*) UNICEF Mumbai Field Office, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India e-mail: [email protected] O. Khare · A. Ghodke UNICEF Field Office for Maharashtra, Mumbai, India e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_8

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variations in the availability of water resources. The state has pockets with cold and humid climate and large areas under hot and arid climate. The rainfall varies drastically from above 3000 mm in the Western Ghats to nearly 2500 mm in the coastal areas to less than 500 mm in the Marathwada region. The topography varies from coastal plains to Deccan plateau to the hilly areas and high mountains (UNICEF, WSSD and IRAP 2013). With these unique natural conditions compounded by inadequate water and sanitation infrastructure and presence of large populations living under poverty (in 2011–2012, about 36% of the population was below poverty line in the rural areas), large areas of the state fall victim to the impacts of climate extremes. Large parts of the state, especially the hot and arid areas of Marathwada and Vidarbha, experience high variability in climate, particularly precipitation and temperature, annually and seasonally. For the time period of 1901–2017, the average annual rainfall was 792 mm in Marathwada and 1094 mm in Vidarbha and exhibiting a substantial inter-annual variability (having coefficient of variation of 24% and 19%, respectively). The month of December is the coldest with a mean maximum temperature of 28.9
C and a mean minimum temperature of 12.2
C. May is the hottest month with a mean maximum temperature of 45
C and a mean minimum temperature of 24.6
C. Except during the monsoon season, when the relative humidity is high, the air is generally dry. While Vidarbha is drained by Godavari and Tapi rivers, Marathwada is mainly drained by the river Godavari and its tributaries. Wells are the main source of water for domestic supplies in rural areas in the hot and arid regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha. In these regions, water supply systems are threatened during drought years, as aquifers do not get adequately recharged. Here, drinking water shortage is felt even before the onset of summer, with agriculture claiming most of the water underground (IRAP, GSDA and UNICEF 2013). In such situations, people tend to use contaminated water from non-conventional sources for washing, bathing and so on at the cost of body hygiene. Though there is sufficient water available in large reservoirs located in high rainfall regions of the state even during drought years, adequate infrastructure to transport this water to water-deficit areas is absent (UNICEF, WSSD and IRAP 2013). In the absence of adequate water to meet all needs, sanitation is a major casualty in all these areas. Even when households have access to toilets, they are abandoned due to acute water shortage. Further, during extreme wet years, flash floods occur especially in Vidarbha that have potential to destroy existing WASH infrastructure or disrupt WASH-related services. Thus, there is a need to assess climate risk in WASH that can support prepare proper risk informed strategies (physical and policy reforms) to plan, design and build climate-resilient WASH systems in drought-prone regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha. The two regions represent distinct typologies with respect to natural, physical, socio-economic and cultural environments. While, Marathwada is hot, semi-arid, and drought prone but agriculturally prosperous region, Vidarbha is hot, semi-arid, and has hilly undulating terrain that is dominated by socially and economically backward tribal communities practising mostly rainfed and subsistence

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farming. The latter also experiences high rate of migration from rural areas due to perennial shortage of water for agriculture and other uses.

8.2

Methodology

The climate-induced risk in WASH was assessed at the district level for the eight districts of Marathwada and 11 districts of Vidarbha regions1 (see Fig. 8.1) using the composite, ‘WASH risk index’, which takes into consideration the degree of climate-induced hazards, the exposure of the WASH system to the hazard and vulnerability of the community to the disruptions in WASH caused by the hazard. The analytical framework for developing the index is presented in Chap. 7.

Fig. 8.1 Map (not to scale) showing different regions of Maharashtra state. (Map Source: IndiaSpend)

1

Amaravati and Nagpur regions together form Vidarbha.

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Computation of the Composite Index

The composite index has three sub-indices (one for hazard, one for exposure and one for vulnerability), and each sub-index has several variables (indicators) whose numerical values (scores) together characterize the attribute represented by the sub-index (say, climate hazard) in quantitative terms. For the climate-related hazard sub-index, five natural variables were considered. They are mean annual rainfall, rainfall variability, flood proneness, aridity and annual renewable water resource availability. For the sub-index on exposure, a total of 14 variables were considered that were natural, physical, socio-economic, and institutional and policy related. Natural variables included depth to groundwater table, temperature and humidity and groundwater stock. Physical variables were characteristics of natural water resources, and provision of buffer storage of water in reservoirs per capita. Socio-economic variables comprised of proportion of households covered by tap water supply, proportion of households having access to modern toilets, flood control measures such embankments, dykes, dams and water pumping facilities, proportion of people living in low-lying areas, proportion of people having access to water supply source within the dwelling premise and hand washing before and after food and after toilet use. And institutional and policy variables included existence of policy to hire private tankers for emergency water supply, provision for tanker water supply in rural areas in terms of number of tankers, and the disaster risk reduction measures available. For the vulnerability sub-index, a total of nine variables were considered that were natural, socio-economic, and institution and policy related. Natural variables included only climate. Socio-economic variables were population density, proportion of people living under poverty, proportion of people who are unhealthy, access to primary health services, percentage of children under the age of 5 with stunting (low height-for-age ratio). And institutional and policy related comprised of ability to provide relief and rehabilitation measures for floods, social ingenuity and cohesion, and adequate number of primary and other health infrastructure. To begin with the computation, a maximum score of ‘3’ (three) was assigned to any variable in the case of highest risk situation, and the minimum score of ‘1’ (one) was assigned to the variable for the lowest risk situation. For obtaining numerical value of each sub-index, score for each indicator was added up. It can be represented as: Sub‐index value ¼

Xn

S i¼1 i

ð8:1Þ

where S is the product of score and weightage obtained by each variable under the sub-index and n is the total number of variables (indicators) considered for assessing the value of each sub-index. Values computed for each sub-index were normalized by dividing it by the highest possible value possible for that sub-index. For instance, a sub-index which uses five independent variables (indicators) had a maximum computed value of

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15 (i.e. 5  3). This means the highest normalized value possible for any sub-index will be 1.0. The composite climate risk index for water and sanitation (RWASH) was computed by multiplying the values of the three sub-indices viz., hazard (HWASH-SI), exposure (EWASH-SI) and vulnerability (VWASH-SI). It can be mathematically represented as: RWASHINDEX ¼ H WASH‐SUB‐INDEX  E WASH‐SUB‐INDEX  V WASH‐SUB‐INDEX ð8:2Þ Thus, the maximum composite risk index value can be 1.0. A value of 0.33 for any sub-index signifies low magnitude; a value in the range of 0.33–0.67 is considered to be a moderate magnitude for the sub-index; and the value greater than 0.67 is considered to be of high magnitude. If the total risk is less than 0.04, it implies low risk; a score in the range of 0.05–0.30 implies moderate risk and an ‘overall risk’ greater than 0.30 implies high risk.

8.2.2

Data Types and Sources

The data for assessing climate-induced WASH risks in the two divisions of Maharashtra pertaining to 28 different variables were obtained from various official sources, except for one variable. The only variable on which primary data were collected (from individual households through sample survey) was ‘hand-washing practice’ as secondary data pertaining to this were not available with official sources. For rest of the variables, data were available at the district level and hence the computation of the risk index was done at the district level. The data sources included: climate atlas of Maharashtra (for natural variables); Water Resources Department of Maharashtra, Ground Water Survey and Development Agency of Maharashtra, and Maharashtra Water Supply and Sanitation Department, Water and Sanitation Organization of Maharashtra (for physical, socio-economic, institutional and policy variables); and Maharashtra State Disaster Management Department (for institutional and policy-related variables).

8.3

Computed WASH Risk Index for Vidarbha and Marathwada Regions

The computed values of composite risk index for the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha are presented in Figs. 8.2 and 8.3, respectively. The results show that the climate-induced risk in WASH is higher for Marathwada region (0.30) in comparison to Vidarbha (0.28). Further, when Marathwada and Vidarbha regions are considered together, the composite risk index value varies spatially between 0.22 in Chandrapur (Vidarbha) and 0.35 in Parbhani (Marathwada). In the case of

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0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35

0.35 0.30

0.30

0.28 0.25

0.25

0.31

0.31

0.30

0.28 0.23

0.20

Fig. 8.2 Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Marathwada region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values)

0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25

0.33

0.33 0.28

0.29

0.29

0.29

0.28 0.22

0.24

0.29

0.28

0.25

0.20

Fig. 8.3 Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Vidarbha region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values)

Marathwada region, which is historically known for droughts, the value of risk index varies from a lowest of 0.23 in Jalna to a highest of 0.35 in Parbhani. In the case of Vidarbha, which is relatively better in water resources endowment as compared to Marathwada, but characterized by poor water supply and infrastructure, the value of the district level risk index ranges from a lowest of 0.22 in Chandrapur to a highest of 0.33 in Washim. The computed values of the sub-indices for hazard, exposure and vulnerability for each of the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha are presented in Figs. 8.4 and 8.5, respectively. The values for different sub-indices of the composite risk index vary drastically from region to region and also amongst districts within each region.

8 Mapping Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene in. . . HAZARDS

EXPOSURE

215

VULNERABILITY

1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40

Fig. 8.4 Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Marathwada region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values) HAZARDS

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY

1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70

0.60 0.50 0.40

Fig. 8.5 Climate-induced risk in water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in Vidarbha region, Maharashtra. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on computed index values)

Overall, the range of scores for components in Marathwada is larger as compared to Vidarbha region. As regards the ‘hazard’ component of the composite risk index, in the case of Marathwada, the value varies from a lowest of 0.53 for Jalna district to a highest of 0.73 for Osmanabad district. In the case of Vidarbha, the value of the sub-index for hazard ranges from a lowest of 0.60 (in six districts) to the highest of 0.67 for the remaining five districts. The variation in the degree of hazard is more (the difference in the value of sub-index being 0.20) amongst the districts of Marathwada as compared to their counterparts in Vidarbha (the difference being only 0.07). The average value for Vidarbha region is 0.60 against 0.67 for Marathwada.

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As regards exposure, in the case of Marathwada, the value of the sub-index ranges from 0.57 for Aurangabad and Osmanabad to a highest of 0.74 for Parbhani. The corresponding values for Vidarbha division districts range from 0.60 for Amravati to 0.74 for Gondia. The average value for Vidarbha region is 0.67 against 0.60 for Marathwada. Hence, the districts in Vidarbha region are more exposed to climateinduced WASH risks. As regards vulnerability, in the case of Marathwada division, the value of the sub-index ranges from 0.67 for Bid to 0.78 for Nanded. Nanded, therefore, not only is more exposed to climate-induced hazards but also has high vulnerability. In the case of Vidarbha, the value of the sub-index for vulnerability ranges from a lowest of 0.56 for Chandrapur to 0.70 for five districts in the division. These districts are Akola, Amravati, Buldhana, Wardha and Washim. So, comparing the two divisions, it can be inferred that the vulnerability to climate-induced hazards is generally lower for the districts of Vidarbha division as compared to those of Marathwada. The average value for Vidarbha region is 0.70 against 0.74 for Marathwada.

8.4

The Factors Contributing to High Climate Risk in Certain Districts

The highest climate-induced WASH risk is in the districts of Parbhani (0.35), Osmanabad (0.31) and Nanded (0.31) in Marathwada, and Akola and Washim districts (0.33 each) of Vidarbha. It is important to understand the factors responsible for the differential value of climate-induced risks amongst districts in order to reduce the risk in districts where it is high. Osmanabad district experiences high incidence of climate hazards (see Fig. 8.6), while Parbhani, Gondia, Akola, Bhandara, Wardha and Washim districts are characterized by high incidence of climate exposure (see Fig. 8.7). Aurangabad, Nanded and Osmanabad districts are highly vulnerable to climate-induced hazards (see Fig. 8.8). The annual renewable water availability in Osmanabad is in the range of 1501 and 3001 m3/ha, rendering it a water-deficit region2 (Government of Maharashtra 2019). This particular variable makes the district prone to high climate-induced hazard. Further, Osmanabad is also highly vulnerable because of the high percentage of children under the age of five with stunting (44%)3 and poor ability to provide relief

2

The water resources department of the government of Maharashtra had classified various river basins and their sub-basins falling inside in the state on the basis of renewable surface water availability per unit of Culturable Command Area into five categories as ‘water abundant’ (above 12,000 m3/ha), ‘water surplus’ (8000–12,000 m3/ha), ‘normal’ (3000–8000 m3/ha), ‘water deficit’ (1500–3000 m3/ha) and ‘highly water-deficit’ (below 1500 m3/ha). 3 Overall, percentage of children under the age of five with stunting is 42% in the entire Marathwada and 39% in the entire Vidarbha region.

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Fig. 8.6 Map showing extent of hazard in the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha region. (Source: Prepared by authors using computed index values)

and rehabilitation measures during floods and cyclones. Similarly, high vulnerability is observed for Aurangabad and Nanded. The exposure to climate hazard is highest in Parbhani district of Marathwada, while in Vidarbha, Gondia district show high exposure. This can be attributed to a number of factors. These districts score very low in indicators such as proportion of households (HHs) covered by tap water supply (lowest of 7% in Gondia),4 access to modern toilets (lowest of 8% in Parbhani), provision of tanker water supply in rural areas (no tanker supply in Gondia)5 and groundwater stock (equal to or less than the

4 Proportion of HHs covered by tap water supply is 21% in the Marathwada region and 25% in the Vidarbha region. 5 On an average, one water tanker (carrying about 5000 litres of water) is supplied by the administration to 50 HHs in Marathwada and 526 HHs in Vidarbha region to meet domestic water demand during the water scarcity time.

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Fig. 8.7 Map showing extent of exposure in the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha region. (Source: Prepared by authors using computed index values)

annual recharge in Parbhani and Gondia). Additionally, the district of Parbhani has a high proportion of its population living in the low-lying areas (51%).6

8.5

Physical Strategies to Reduce WASH Risk

Building new water infrastructure can play a significant role in reducing the hazard and exposure in both the regions (UNICEF and IRAP 2017). For Marathwada, developing dependable sources of water for irrigation as well as water supply would be required for improving food and nutritional security and water supply so as to reduce malnutrition and infant mortality. One option would be import of surface water from water-rich regions such as the Western Ghats that has a rich endowment of river flows. As per the annual water audit of irrigation reports of Maharashtra, between 2008–2009 and 2017–2018, about 2450 MCM of water is left

6 Proportion of people living in the low-lying areas is 25% in Marathwada, whereas in Vidarbha, only 8% of the people live in low-lying areas.

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Fig. 8.8 Map showing degree of vulnerability in the districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha region. (Source: Prepared by authors using computed index values)

unutilised annually in the major, medium and minor reservoirs in the state. Such intervention would help reduce the hazard caused by meteorological droughts in the region, which is in the form of reduced water resource availability for every use. Further, this can reduce the vulnerability of the region to impacts of drought. On the other hand, Vidarbha region requires better infrastructure for improving the access to drinking water supply and sanitation, though water endowment of the region is good with several perennial rivers. This can be in the form of more of large and medium reservoirs for storing surface runoff of the region, and infrastructure for pumping and transporting this good-quality water to the rural areas, and building of proper village level water distribution systems. It is to be kept in mind that overdependence on groundwater resources for domestic water supply will not be desirable for the region, as the wells run dry towards the end of winter even in normal rainfall years (IRAP, GSDA and UNICEF 2013). If dependable sources of goodquality water are made available to the villagers, the need for arranging tanker water supply during droughts and summer months can be drastically reduced. Also, once this is done, the community members will have greater motivation to go for individual HH level tap water connections and pay for it, as they are sure of getting adequate supplies of good-quality water every year and in every season. As earlier studies in Maharashtra suggests, with access to individual household level water

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Table 8.1 Proposed financial provision for drinking water sector in Maharashtra Sr. no. 1 2 3 4

5

Water sector components Rural water supply Urban water supply Highly water stressed blocks Blocks of unfavourable strata Water supply schemes for saline areas Overall

Funds required in different divisions of the state (in INR billion) Konkan Nashik Pune Aurangabad Amravati Nagpur State 7.1 7.1 6.6 5.6 1.5 3.2 31.1 43.4

20.9

45.9

52.8

31.3

19.9

0.0

5.3

7.7

4.5

0.5

0

18.0

7.2

2.6

2.4

2.9

0.6

1.6

17.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.4

0

57.7

35.9

62.6

65.8

39.3

24.7

214.2

5.4

286.0

Source: Government of Maharashtra (2013)

connections, the families will have strong incentive to go for improved toilets (UNICEF, WSSD and IRAP 2013). As per the recommendation of the ‘High Level Committee on Balanced Regional Development Issues in Maharashtra’, the funds required for additional water supply infrastructure in the State of Maharashtra is about INR7 286 billion (Government of Maharashtra 2013). As per the data presented in Table 8.1, Vidarbha (comprising of Amravati and Nagpur divisions) requires about 22.5% and Marathwada (comprising of Aurangabad division) about 23% of the total proposed fund allocation. The financial provisions for the required level of water supply are worked out considering the water supply gap between 2011 and 2030, based on the norm of minimum water supply of 140 litres per day per capita for both rural (including livestock water needs) and urban areas; and, the Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran norm of Rs. 137 per cubic metre of development of new water supply infrastructure. Considering the same water supply norm for the rural and urban areas is a major departure from the past trend of using a much lower norm of 40–55 litres per capita per day (lpcd) of water for rural areas that is far less than what is required to meet the basic survival needs of humans and livestock in hot and arid climates. However, an issue that requires special attention is that the cost of water supply per unit volume of water supplied would be much higher in water-scarce regions as compared to water-rich regions, given the poor dependability of water from internal sources and the need for importing water from exogenous sources for meeting the demands on a sustainable basis (Kumar 2014).8 Going by this analysis, it would mean the need for allocation of larger amount of funds to such regions than what is demanded by the gap in infrastructure. The drought-prone regions such as 7 8

USD 1 equals to about INR 75 as of June 2020. This was illustrated by an empirical analysis of 301 cities and towns in India.

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Marathwada and Vidarbha would require larger amount of funds per cubic metre of water supplied to meet the drinking water supply requirement in future. In view of this, the state also needs to allocate a greater proportion of its budget towards increasing climate resilience of existing WASH systems in rural Marathwada and Vidarbha.

8.6

8.6.1

Institutional Setup and Capacity Building Measures for Improving Climate Resilience of WASH Programmes Existing Government Institutions in Maharashtra WASH Sector

Water Supply and Sanitation Department (WSSD), Government of Maharashtra (GoM), is the state nodal agency for formulating, implementing, operating and maintaining regional water supply schemes in both rural and urban areas. The Groundwater Surveys and Development Agency (GSDA), the Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran (MJP), and Water Supply and Sanitation Organization (WSSO) are the line agencies supporting the Water Supply and Sanitation Department. GSDA is a technical agency (mostly geologists) and entrusted with the responsibility of overall development and management of groundwater. It has a Directorate that is assisted by six regional and 33 district level offices. For last 40+ years, GSDA is engaged in the exploration, development and augmentation of groundwater resources in the state through various schemes. MJP mainly consists of engineers and implements piped water supply schemes. The MJP has one central office that is supported by field offices spread across the entire state. Overall, there are 5 zonal offices, 16 circle offices, 44 work/project divisions and 151 sub-divisions. The primary responsibility of MJP is planning, design, investigation, detailed engineering and execution of water supply and sewerage schemes in the state. Additionally, MJP arranges finances for these schemes. On the successful completion of these projects, MJP hands them over to the respective local bodies. To settle the administrative expenses, MJP receives a fixed amount on total project costs which has been currently fixed by GoM at 17.5% of the value of projects. As per the Maharashtra Government Resolution (GR) of June 2003, some of the functions and functionaries of the GSDA and MJP were transferred to District Panchayat9 (DP). The Water Supply Department of DP mainly comprises these transferred functionaries and is responsible for implementing water supply and 9

District Panchayat is an apex organization of the three-tier structure of the local self-government institutions in India. The other two are Block Panchayat (at the block level) and Village Panchayat (at the village level).

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sanitation reform programmes. In 2009, the Maharashtra Government established State-level Water Supply and Sanitation Organization (WSSO) to implement and monitor rural water supply programmes in general. The main responsibilities of WSSO include preparing annual action plan, providing technical and administrative assistance to local organizations in planning and implementation of schemes, developing Information, Communication and Education, and developing Management Information System for monitoring of rural water supply and sanitation programmes. Further at the local level, DP is entrusted to provide technical service and approve funds to villages served by rural water supply schemes, whereas Village Panchayat is responsible for demanding new drinking water supply schemes from the DP. The lowest in the tier is the Village Water Supply and Sanitation Committee (VWSC) that operates and maintains the village water supply scheme with technical support from DP or MJP.

8.6.2

Institutional Preparedness and Programmes to Check Climate-Induced Hazards

The Maharashtra State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) was constituted on 24 May 2006. SDMA is chaired by the State Chief Minister; the State Deputy Chief Minister is the vice-chairperson and its other members include three State Ministers, three unofficial members and the State Chief Secretary who is also the Chief Executive Officer. Simultaneously, State Executive Committee (SEC) was formed as an implementation wing of SDMA. SEC also acts as the coordinating and monitoring body for the management of disaster in the state. For effective communication and information management during disaster, State Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) was established. A separate State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) for effective response during disasters was also constituted (DMU, und). Secretariat for both SDMA and SEC was established under the chairmanship of Additional Chief Secretary (Relief and Rehabilitation Department). Each district also has a District Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) and District EOC. While SDMA is responsible for policy/decisions making, resource/ budget allocation and monitoring through the state EOC, DDMA is responsible for preparedness and mitigation at the district level. The district level response is co-ordinated under the guidance of the District Collector, who acts as a District Disaster Manager. Maharashtra is one of the first states to prepare a comprehensive State Disaster Management Plan (SDMP) that was approved in April 2016. The SDMP was prepared by the Disaster Management Unit (DMU) at RRD, GoM. The plan also contains hazard, risk and vulnerability analysis for various districts, talukas within these districts, and clusters of villages in these districts to earthquakes, floods and cyclones, epidemics, road accidents and fire, and chemical and industrial disasters. A separate volume on Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) was also prepared which

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include the manuals for various departments to be activated during an emergency (Government of Maharashtra, undated).

8.6.3

Measures to Reduce Exposure of WASH Systems to Climate-Induced Hazards

Maharashtra SDMP mentions various structural and non-structural measures and the responsible line departments intended to reduce risks that arise from climate-related natural hazards. These actions or measures are intended to cover or shield assets from exposure, injury or destruction. Most of the recommended structural measures on flood and drought proofing have a major emphasis on the irrigation infrastructure (including crop security). Water supply and sanitation systems are not mentioned specifically, as infrastructure to be protected in the event of floods. Neither are the institutions in-charge of planning, developing and managing rural water supply and sanitation systems such as the Groundwater Surveys and Development Agency, the Maharashtra Jeevan Pradhikaran, and the Water Supply and Sanitation Organization mentioned as the agencies responsible for handling disaster situations. The lack of integration of institutions associated with provision of WASH services in rural Maharashtra, with the SDMP, means that these institutions will have a limited role in preventing or reducing the exposure of WASH systems to climate-induced hazards such as hydrological droughts and floods. The non-structural measures lay emphasis on strengthening of flood and drought forecasting, warning and dissemination systems. However, as is the case with the structural measures, linkages with rural water supply and sanitation systems are missing.

8.6.4

Measures to Reduce Community Vulnerability to Climate-Induced Hazards

Most of the measures to reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate-induced hazards are based on capacity building and awareness programmes. As is the case with measures to reduce exposure, there are no specific activities to reduce community vulnerability to damaged water supply and sanitation systems, or inadequate water supply (reduced availability of water for drinking and other domestic purposes or water contamination) and poor sanitation. Most of these measures relate to rescue operations (in case of floods) and supporting agricultural produce (in case of droughts). Further, during any disaster, financial aid is provided to the affected community in the state through the Natural Calamity Relief Fund. Under this head, relief is

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provided to compensate for human loss, death of livestock and damaged crops and for repairing damaged houses, and purchasing utensils, food items, clothes and necessary household goods. The state government also provides State Disaster Mitigation Fund to all 35 districts and 10 Regional Disaster Management Centres (RDMCs) working for city areas for strengthening EOCs and purchasing search and rescue equipment, organizing capacity building training programmes and awareness programmes for various target groups. However, no specific financial aid is provided for water supply and sanitation systems to reduce the vulnerability of communities depending on them during climate-induced hazards.

8.6.5

Suggested Capacity Building Measures

Creating an enabling policy environment is fundamental to making sustainable changes in the WASH sector. As per the analysis presented in the previous section, to improve climate resilience of WASH systems in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra, capacity needs to be built at all levels, that is of the state government agencies dealing with water supply and sanitation such as MJP, GSDA and WSSO, the state disaster management agency, the state level NGOs, the district administration, and the Village Panchayats and the water users who are the primary stakeholders. The measures that can be taken up are knowledge generation through training and education, knowledge dissemination, and informed action through pilot projects. But, along with training and education, technical and institutional capacities are to be developed at various levels, in order to ensure that climate change variables are effectively integrated into planning of water supply and sanitation systems. The possible measures and the required inputs to improve climate resilience of WASH systems fall under three categories: capacity building of stakeholders, technical strategies and disaster preparedness.

8.6.5.1

Capacity Building of Stakeholders

The capacity building should focus on: promotion of advocacy for increasing multiannual storage through surface reservoirs in drought-prone areas and increasing flood cushioning in flood-prone areas; training of hydrologists on climate modelling to predict the changes in hydrology of river basins due to climate variability and change; training of engineers in Water Resources Department on design and operation of reservoirs for greater flood cushioning (for flood-prone areas) and design of reservoirs for enhanced multi-annual storage (for drought-prone areas); training of water supply engineers on designing water supply systems resilient to reduced water flows induced by climate variability particularly droughts, leakage detection and prevention measures in pipelines, and design and operation of decentralized wastewater treatment systems; training of sanitation engineers on designing sanitation

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infrastructure that pose least environmental pollution risk to groundwater; training of water supply engineers on design of flood-resistant infrastructure such as water distribution pipelines, overhead water tanks and so on; and training of village level water committees for maintenance and resource management.

8.6.5.2

Technical Strategies

The technical strategies should include: rehabilitation of damaged water distribution networks using hazard-and stress-resilient materials and designs; building surface reservoirs with enhanced capacity for multi-annual storage of inflows; building projects for transfer of water from water-rich Western Ghat region to chronically drought-hit Marathwada region; constructing raised hand-pumps and well-head protection in flood-prone areas, to ensure continuity of access to water during flooding; constructing rain water harvesting and storage systems for populations in areas without piped water, but receiving heavy rainfall over long time periods; building of decentralized wastewater treatment systems; de-silting of water troughs for use by livestock during drought, promotion of household water filters and education on their use; constructing raised latrines placed at a safe distance from water sources to prevent overflow and contamination during flooding; promoting hygiene and hand-washing campaigns among at-risk populations; and cleaning-up of drainage canals prior to predicted flash floods.

8.6.5.3

Disaster Preparedness

As discussed previously, Maharashtra does have a disaster preparedness framework in place but WASH is not among the priority areas. Thus there is a need to bring in WASH in the disaster preparedness plans and the suggested capacity building measures and the technical strategies should be made part of the plans. Further, raising awareness among local communities about disaster and climate change risk, through education and training programmes should be undertaken. The provision of training and equipment to local and municipal disaster response personnel should also be made available. Finally, support needs to be provided for the development of community level early warning and evacuation systems using appropriate media and technology.

8.7

Conclusions

In this chapter, we discussed the results from the mapping of climate-induced risk in WASH for the two divisions of Maharashtra, viz., Marathwada and Vidarbha, comprising 19 districts using a composite WASH Risk Index. Overall, the computed value of the index was higher in Marathwada region (0.30) when compared to

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Vidarbha region (0.28). Considering both the regions together, the WASH risk at the district level varied from a lowest of 0.22 in Chandrapur (Vidarbha) and 0.35 in Parbhani (Marathwada). The mapping helped identify the key interventions that need to be made in order to improve the climate resilience of WASH systems in districts identified as having ‘high-risk’. The decision to change the water supply norm for rural areas to 140 lpcd which is at par with urban areas is a major reform initiative. While the average per capita cost norm of Rs. 137/m3 of water supply for the whole of Maharashtra as suggested by the ‘High Level Committee on Balanced Regional Development Issues in Maharashtra’ is also an encouraging one for future investments in WASH sector, research suggests that the unit cost (Rs/m3 of water) for drought-prone regions such as Marathwada and Vidarbha will have to be much higher than that for water-rich areas such as Konkan and Western Ghat region for ensuring sustainable water supply, in lieu of the fact that water endowment is limited locally and water will have to be imported from exogenous sources. Disaster risk reduction plans and measures exist in Maharashtra. They are both structural and non-structural. However, they are not specific to risks associated with poor water supply and sanitation-related risks, resulting from climate extremes— floods, droughts and cyclones. Research and past experience suggest that these measures to reduce the exposure to droughts comprising structural measures such as construction of dams, and small water harvesting structures, and non-structural measures such as drought forecasting systems and drought warning alone are unlikely to have any significant impact on reducing the risks in WASH (UNICEF and IRAP 2017). Similarly, the measures being proposed for reducing a community’s vulnerability to droughts under ‘capacity building and awareness’, such as mere awareness creation about drought-resistant crops and use of microirrigation systems are also not going to be effective in reducing WASH-related risks. Capacity building of communities for reducing their vulnerability to climateinduced WASH hazards poses a significant challenge to authorities. In many cases, the different components of WASH and the manifestations of its mismanagement within the population is not recognized in its entirety. There is low appreciation of the environmental and health impacts of poor sanitation and unacceptable hygiene practices among communities with low levels of literacy and high incidence of poverty. It requires a more eclectic approach where all stakeholders need to be apprised of different aspects of risk and how they affect them. Further, no ‘one-fitfor-all’ solution exists and in most cases interventions for reducing the vulnerability need to be customized for the existing physical, socio-economic and institutional environment. At the government level, capacity building of the agencies concerned (viz., Water Resources Department and the Water Supply and Sanitation Department) for designing and executing projects that reduce the climate-induced hazards and exposure is important. The most important part of this exercise is to build the skills of technical officers of MJP to design reliable and dependable rural water supply systems in areas experiencing climatic extremes. The inputs for this includes, but not limited to, the following: hydrological modelling of river basins for climate change scenarios;

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designing of surface reservoirs in flood-prone areas for greater flood cushioning; designing of reservoirs to increase the multi-annual storage of inflows from catchments in drought-prone areas; import of water from water-rich regions to chronically drought-hit region of Marathwada; leakage detection and prevention in distribution network of regional water supply systems; design of ecologically sound sanitation infrastructure; and design, execution and operation of decentralized wastewater treatment systems. These measures require not only enhancement of technical/ scientific capabilities, but also strengthening of financial capabilities. Among all these measures, improving the buffer stock of water through import from water-surplus regions is extremely crucial in increasing the access of the poor to water supply in quantitative terms (UNICEF, WSSD and IRAP 2013). Finally, strengthening of various institutions engaged in WASH systems through learning, increased participation, capacity building and integration with other sectors is of prime importance. It is also important to recognize community-based knowledge and to create opportunities for innovations within communities and organizations and aligning them with local needs and priorities. Acknowledgement We would like to express sincere thanks to Water Supply and Sanitation Department (WSSD), Government of Maharashtra, for providing all the necessary support enabling successful completion of this research study.

References Government of Maharashtra. (2013). Report of the high level committee on balanced regional development issues in Maharashtra. Mumbai: Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra. Government of Maharashtra. (2019). Report on water auditing of irrigation projects in Maharashtra state 2017–18. Mumbai: Water Resources Department, Government of Maharashtra. Government of Maharashtra. (n.d.). State disaster management plan (Draft copy). Mumbai: Disaster Management Unit Relief and Rehabilitation Department, Government of Maharashtra. IRAP, GSDA and UNICEF. (2013). Multiple-use water services to reduce poverty and vulnerability to climate variability and change: A collaborative action research project in Maharashtra, India. Hyderabad: Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy. Kumar, M. D. (2014). Thirsty cities: How Indian cities can meet their water needs. New Delhi: Oxford University Press. UNICEF and IRAP. (2017). Capacity building for planning of climate-resilient WASH services in rural Maharashtra. Mumbai: UNICEF. UNICEF, WSSD and IRAP. (2013). Promoting sustainable drinking water supply and sanitation in rural Maharashtra: Institutional and policy regimes. Hyderabad: Institute for Resource Analysis And Policy. Vedeld, T., Aandahl, G., Barkved, L., Kelkar, U., de Bruin, K., & Lanjekar, P. (2014). Drought in Jalna: Community-based adaptation to extreme climate events in Maharashtra. The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) and Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research (NIBR).

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Arijit Ganguly holds a master’s degree in Environmental Studies and Resources Management from TERI University, New Delhi, and a bachelor’s degree in Environment and Water Management from Burdwan University, West-Bengal. Arijit has 7 years of experience working in the fields of hydrological modeling for rivers, climate risk and resilience analysis, water quality management, water resources management, and analysis of environmental quality. Arijit was worked with several organizations such as the Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Ministry of Water Resources, RD & GR, GoI, and DHI (India) Water & Environment Pvt Ltd. He has a working knowledge of many analytical, GIS, and hydrological modeling tools. His professional interests include integrated water resources management, climate variability analysis, GIS, and environmental system analysis. Yusuf Kabir’s areas of specialization are Rural Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation, Environment, Urban Sanitation, Circular Economy, Climate Change Adaptations, and Sustainable Development. He has two post-graduatations and had attended several International certificate courses. His first master’s degree is in Environment Engineering and Management from India’s premier management Institute: Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management (IISWBM), and the second one is in Sustainable Development from Staffordshire University, U.K. Yusuf is a Commonwealth scholar. He has several publications in International Journals, Papers, and Books on water and sanitation issues and State Level Committee Members of different state bodies and knowledge management platforms of CSR. He is working in the Water, Sanitation and Environment sector for the last 20 years. He is with UNICEF India since 2007. Prior to that he worked with organizations like DFID, National Level NGOs, Social and Marketing research consultancy firms like GFK-MODE, ORG India Pvt Ltd. He is a commonwealth scholar and a trained policy writer from Central European University, Budapest, Hungary where he had undergone a summer course on ‘Evidence-Based Policy Formulation’. He runs a blog on Sanitation in the name of WASH Garage: Blog: http://safaiwala.blogspot.in/ Omkar Khare has over 5 years of experience working in the government sector and with an international agency. He has a graduate degree in geology and a postgraduate degree in disaster management from the Tata Institute of Social Sciences. His sector of work is disaster risk reduction. His major work has primarily been to support the Government of Maharashtra for various scheme implementations and policy planning aimed at reducing the impact of drought and other natural hazards. Currently, he is working as a State Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Consultant for UNICEF, Mumbai, and looking after Risk Informed Programming for the state of Maharashtra. Anand Ghodke has over 20 years of experience with diverse domains including Government and International agencies as well as philanthropic and Non-Governmental Organizations where he has worked in different capacities. The major areas around which he worked are natural resources management, water supply, and sanitation programs, monitoring of developmental programs of the ministries of Governments and other agencies, etc. He has been part of various evaluations, preparation of guidelines and programs and has also served the Steering Committee of Water Supply Sanitation Collaborative Council, Geneva, Switzerland as a representative for South Asia Regional Seat. Currently, he works as Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Officer with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) at Mumba Office, Maharashtra. Trained in engineering from IIT Kharagpur, Anand comes from the Yavatmal district of Maharashtra and is passionate about the works and innovations that benefit the underprivileged and vulnerable population.

Chapter 9

Predictions of Disease Spikes Induced by Climate Variability: A Pilot Real Time Forecasting Model Project from Maharashtra, India Sujata Saunik , Pratip Shil, Subrata N. Das, Sangita P. Rajankar, Omkar Khare, Krishna A. Hosalikar, and Yusuf Kabir

Abstract Climate change is manifest globally through extreme weather events, altered rainfall patterns and spread of viral diseases. The emergence and re-emergence of arthropod-borne viral diseases viz. dengue, chikungunya, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis and Zika are of global public health concern. Over the last decade India has faced a huge burden of Dengue and chikungunya with more than ten million individuals affected. This not only necessitates studies on the role of environmental effects on disease, but also requires policy-framing towards effective prevention or control of epidemics. In this chapter we are presenting the initiative taken by the Government of Maharashtra state, Republic of India to establish a pilot project to record and document disease outbreaks in the different districts of the state and to develop a predictive model that can analyse the effect of meteorological parameters on disease occurrences. A web portal has been developed for recording of data and online display and efforts are on to develop mathematical models for

S. Saunik Skill Development & Entrepreneurship Department, Government of Maharashtra, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India P. Shil ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune, Maharashtra, India S. N. Das · S. P. Rajankar Maharashtra Remote Sensing Application Centre, Nagpur, Maharashtra, India e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] O. Khare UNICEF Field Office for Maharashtra, Mumbai, India K. A. Hosalikar Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), Mumbai, Maharashtra, India Y. Kabir (*) UNICEF Mumbai Field Office, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_9

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analyses and estimation disease occurrences. As a first, we have successfully developed a Poisson regression model to describe the effects of meteorological parameters on dengue occurrences in the Nagpur region of the Maharashtra state. Keywords Nagpur region · Predictive model · Meteorological parameters · Disease occurrences · Disease modelling

9.1

Introduction

Climate change is a reality and its impact is manifest worldwide through extreme weather events, altered weather patterns and global spread of diseases (Lal et al. 2001; Dhiman et al. 2008). A changing climate has brought worldwide surge in the vector-borne and infectious diseases (Sirisena and Noordeen 2014). The emergence and re-emergence of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, chikungunya, Zika, Japanese encephalitis and malaria and its spread beyond the tropics is fuelled by a changing climate (Amraoui and Failloux 2016) and has put huge population at risk. In India, there was a surge in Chikungunya between 2010 and 2014, with Maharashtra (17,238) and Karnataka (25,320) being the most affected states (Shil et al. 2018). Between 2010 and 2017 a total of 600,042 people were affected by dengue with 1566 deaths across India (source: https://www.nhp.gov.in/national-vectorborne-disease-control-programme_pg) with 31,835 cases in Maharashtra. Between 2011 and 2016 India has reported an average increase of epidemic outbreaks by 60% (Patel 2017). According to the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), Maharashtra has experienced sudden rise in the number of disease outbreaks by 55% in 2011 as compared to the previous year (Patel 2017). Evidence suggests that rainfall variability, which is largely induced by increasing climate variability, is playing a significant role (Shil et al. 2018). Retrospective analyses revealed that for the state of Maharashtra four diseases are of great public health concern: Dengue, Malaria, Influenza-like-illnesses (ILI) and Acute Diarrheal Diseases (ADD). It is understood that propagation of vector-borne diseases depends on vector availability, virus/pathogen circulation in host and vector population, host-vector interactions and virus survival in the ecosystem (Lindblade et al. 2000). All these again depend on the meteorological factors like maximum and minimum temperatures, diurnal temperature range and rainfall (Carrington et al. 2013). Though the transmission of dengue and vector-borne diseases in relation to climatic factors had been studied in Brazil (Cavalcanti et al. 2017; Mota et al. 2017; Morato et al. 2015), Bangladesh (Banu et al. 2015), Pakistan and other tropical countries (Atique et al. 2016, 2018; Halide and Ridd 2008; Jury 2008), reports from India are sparse (Banu et al. 2015; Hii et al. 2012). Coordinated efforts regarding the study of diseases in relation to climate from India are lacking. In a first, the Government of Maharashtra (GoMH) has taken up a pilot project to record and document disease outbreaks in the different districts of the

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state and to develop a predictive model that can analyse the effect of meteorological parameters on disease occurrences. In this chapter we are reporting the pilot work done in this regard.

9.2 9.2.1

Methodology Data Acquisition, Warehousing and Display

Input data forms the crucial part of any data modelling. In this study, data need to be integrated from various departments and then co-related to form a data model which can be used for further prediction. In this study, data from Health and IMD department where the crucial inputs. The health department provided weekly positive cases and death cases from 2012 to 2017 reported for: • • • •

Acute Diarrheal (ADD), Influenza Like Illness (ILI), Dengue and Malaria

IMD provided weekly data from 2012 to 2015 for: • • • • • • • •

Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Mean Temperature Diurnal Temperature Total Rainfall Relative Humidity Evaporation Transportation Sunshine Hours

The data received was stored in the centralized data store in an RDBMS. Using the Java and JavaScript technology, the web portal has been designed to understand the correlation between disease and weather parameters.

9.2.2

Disease Modelling

The effect of climatic parameters (meteorological factors) on the occurrence of disease has been studied through statistical modelling. To start with, analyses on Dengue have been conducted as a part of the pilot study.

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(a) Model formulation: A cross-correlation analyses of monthly Dengue occurrences with each of the following: monthly averaged values of maximum temperature (MXT), minimum temperature (MNT), mean temperature (MT), DTR and rainfall (RF) were performed in R to determine the lagged effects. Once the lagged effects were determined, a time-series Poisson regression model was formulated which incorporates the lagged effects of meteorological parameters on monthly dengue cases (D). The general model is described by the equation: ln ðDÞ ¼ β0 þ β1 X1 þ β2 X 2 þ β3 X 3 þ β4 X 4 þ β5 X 5 þ β6 X 6

ð9:1Þ

where D ¼ number of dengue confirmed cases in any month (monthly dengue occurrence) X1 ¼ number of dengue confirmed cases in previous month, X2 ¼ lagged MT, X3 ¼ lagged MNT, X4 ¼ lagged DTR, X5 ¼ lagged monthly rainfall, X6 ¼ lagged MXT, and β’s represent the coefficients. (b) Model implementation: The model was implemented in R software package. Cross-correlation coefficient (using ccf protocol) was computed between dengue vs each meteorological parameter to ascertain the lagged effects. Highest correlation (Spearman’s rho) was used to identify optimal lag for the climate parameter. Then, a time-series Poisson regression model (multivariate) (Eq. 9.1) was used to quantify the dengue occurrences with the lagged values of meteorological parameters. Computation was conducted in R statistical/mathematical analyses package (using the glm protocol) [19] online R documentation.

9.3 9.3.1

Results Web portal

The has been developed by Maharashtra Remote Sensing Application Centre (MRSAC), Government of Maharashtra, to showcase a near real time decision support tool for the health practitioners and decision makers which will predict and give probable disease alerts related to climate variability. The web portal is a system where complete data related to disease and its weather parameters will be viewed on single dashboard (Fig. 9.1). This will help the decision maker to compare and analyse the disease data and weather data. The web portal is available at: http:// mrsac.maharashtra.gov.in/dda/.

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Fig. 9.1 (a) Disease cases reported. (b) Weather parameters. (c) GIS representation of the cases count. (d) Sanitation data representation. (Source: MRSAC, Government of Maharashtra)

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Fig. 9.1 (continued)

9.3.2

Disease Modelling

Dengue occurrences (confirmed cases) data for the Nagpur district from 2010 to 2015 was considered for the pilot study. Figure 9.2a describes the variation of meteorological parameters and dengue occurrences in the Nagpur district. Crosscorrelation analyses revealed that the number of Dengue cases in the previous month (1-month lag), rainfall (2-month lag), maximum temperature (6-month lag), minimum temperature (2-month lag) were positively associated with monthly dengue occurrences (D), whereas, diurnal temperature range (DTR, 1-month lag) and mean temperature (4-month lag) were negatively associated. Different models with various combinations of the determining factors were tried and the best model selected based on the minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC ¼ 234.17) [20]. Thus, the best model is: ln ðDÞ ¼ β0 þ β1 X1 þ β2 X 2 þ β3 X 3 þ β4 X 4 þ β5 X 5 þ β6 X 6

ð9:2Þ

where D ¼ number of dengue confirmed cases in any month (monthly dengue occurrence), X1 ¼ maximum temperature (6-month lag), X2 ¼ minimum temperature (2-month lag), X3 ¼ mean temperature (4-month lag), X4 ¼ diurnal temperature range (1-month lag), X5 ¼ dengue cases previous month, X6 ¼ rainfall (2-month lag) and β’s represent the coefficients. Based on computational analyses, the final regression equation is given by, ln ðDÞ ¼ 0:926 þ 0:074 X1 þ 0:0091 X 2  0:015 X 3  0:081 X 4 þ 0:077 X 5 þ 0:0029 X 6 Figure 9.2b, displays the comparison between the actual reported cases of dengue (D) and estimated number of cases (estD) based on the regression prediction for the

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Fig. 9.2 (a) Dengue occurrences and meteorological parameters in Nagpur district. (b) Actual number of dengue cases (D) and Estimated number of cases (estD) from the Poisson regression model. Time period covered 2012–2015. (Source: Authors’ own analysis)

period 2012–2015. It is evident that the estimated (predicted) values are very similar to the actual values indicating a good fit.

9.4

Discussion and Conclusion

Though India has a huge burden of disease and a changing climate put population more at risk, research on climate effects on disease in India are sparse (Shil et al. 2018; Pisude et al. 2017). In a first, the Government of Maharashtra has initiated

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research on climate and disease spike. This culminated in the development of a web-based tool that enables incorporation of data on disease surveillance, meteorological data, environmental data (includes sanitation, etc.) and natural calamities under one platform. This online tool enables district-wise visualization of data (graphs, etc.) and envisages to provide disease seasonality and estimated projections for future based on historical data analyses. So far, it is implemented on experimental basis for two districts, Nagpur and Pune. In this chapter we are presenting the pilot work done towards the web portal including an attempt on mathematical modelling of dengue in Nagpur district. The web portal helps to give complete scenario of the season’s parameters and confirmed disease occurrences. web portal is easily accessible through the internet by anybody. The decision makers can use this as prediction tool and can thus take necessary steps and actions as a precautionary measure before the disease outbreaks. The mathematical analyses of disease data revealed the seasonality of dengue in the Nagpur district: South-Western Monsoon season (June–September) and PostMonsoon season (October–November); when the population is more at risk. Analyses revealed that the significant climate determinants of dengue are rainfall (2-month lag), diurnal temperature range (1-month lag), and dengue cases in the previous month along with maximum temperature (6-month lag), minimum temperature (2-month lag) and mean temperatures (4-month lag). Diurnal temperature range, monthly rainfall and minimum temperatures are determinants of Aedes mosquito (dengue vector) propagation and abundance (longevity, vector competence, etc.) in any location (Crans 2004). The model successfully provides estimates of dengue occurrences, which matches with the actual occurrences (surveillance data). To conclude, a pilot project involving climate variability and disease occurrences has been launched by the Government of Maharashtra. As a part of the project, a web portal has been developed that records and analyses disease data and helps in finding correlation with climatic parameters including estimation of seasonality. This digital platform enables authorized work force to record and submit data, help experts to analyse the data from the web portal and this in turn will enable decision makers (public authorities, etc.) to prepare timely allocation of resources in terms of disaster risk reductions and emergency preparedness.

References Akaike Information Criterion. Tutorial at URL: www.brianomeara.info/tutorials/aic/ Amraoui, F., & Failloux, A.-B. (2016). Chikungunya: An unexpected emergence in Europe. Current Opinion in Virology, 21, 146–150. Atique, S., Abdul, S. S., Hsu, C. Y., & Chuang, T. W. (2016). Meteorological influences on dengue transmission in Pakistan. Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine, 9(10), 954–961. Atique, S., Chan, T. C., Chen, C. C., Hsu, C. Y., Iqtidar, S., Louis, V. R., et al. (2018). Investigating spatio-temporal distribution and diffusion patterns of the dengue outbreak in Swat, Pakistan. Journal of Infection and Public Health, 11(4), 550–557.

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Banu, S., Guo, Y., Hu, W., Dale, P., Mackenzie, J. S., Mengersen, K., & Tong, S. (2015). Impacts of El Niño southern oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. Scientific Reports, 5, 16105. Carrington, L. B., Seifert, S. N., Willits, N. H., Lambrechts, L., & Scott, T. W. (2013). Large diurnal temperature fluctuations negatively influence Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) life-history traits. Journal of Medical Entomology, 50(1), 43–51. Cavalcanti, L. P. D. G., Freitas, A. R. R., Brasil, P., & Cunha, R. V. D. (2017). Surveillance of deaths caused by arboviruses in Brazil: From dengue to chikungunya. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 112(8), 583–585. Crans, W. J. (2004). A classification system for mosquito life cycles: Life cycle types for mosquitoes of the northeastern United States. Journal of Vector Ecology, 29, 1–10. Dhiman, R. C., Pahwa, S., & Dash, A. P. (2008). Climate change and malaria in India: Interplay between temperature and mosquitoes. Regional Health Forum, 12(1), 27–31. Halide, H., & Ridd, P. (2008). A predictive model for dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 18(4), 253–265. Hii, Y. L., Zhu, H., Ng, N., Ng, L. C., & Rocklöv, J. (2012). Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 6(11), e1908. Jury, M. R. (2008). Climate influence on dengue epidemics in Puerto Rico. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 18(5), 323–334. Lal, M., Nozawa, T., Emori, S., Harasawa, H., Takahashi, K., Kimoto, M., et al. (2001). Future climate change: Implications for Indian summer monsoon and its variability. Current Science, 81(9), 1196–1207. Lindblade, K. A., Walker, E. D., Onapa, A. W., Katungu, J., & Wilson, M. L. (2000). Land use change alters malaria transmission parameters by modifying temperature in a highland area of Uganda. Tropical Medicine & International Health, 5(4), 263–274. Morato, D. G., Barreto, F. R., Braga, J. U., Natividade, M. S., Costa, M. D. C. N., Morato, V., & Teixeira, M. D. G. L. C. (2015). The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 110(4), 528–533. Mota, F. B., Galina, A. C., & Silva, R. M. D. (2017). Mapping the dengue scientific landscape worldwide: A bibliometric and network analysis. Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, 112(5), 354–363. National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, Government of India. Reports available at: http:// www.nvbdcp.gov.in/den-cd.html, 1st September 2018 and 1st January 2019. Patel, A. (2017, August 11). Integrating disease surveillance program. New Delhi: Government of India, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Department of Health and Family Welfare. Pisudde, P. M., Kumar, P., Sarthi, P. P., & Deshmukh, P. R. (2017). Climatic determinants of Japanese Encephalitis in Bihar State of India: A time-series Poisson regression analysis. Journal of Communicable Diseases, 49(4), 4. R Documentation. Available at: https://www.rdocumentation.org/. Shil, P., Kothawale, D. R., & Sudeep, A. B. (2018). Rainfall and Chikungunya incidences in India during 2010–2014. Virus Disease, 29(1), 46–53. Sirisena, P. D. N. N., & Noordeen, F. (2014). Evolution of dengue in Sri Lanka—Changes in the virus, vector, and climate. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 19, 6–12.

Ms. Sujata Saunik, Indian Administrative Service, and Takemi Fellow 2018, Harvard Chan School of Public Health, is currently posted as Additional Chief Secretary of General Administration Department in Government of Maharashtra. She resumed work with the government upon the successful completion of her two-year research Fellowship in Harvard University. Her second year was spent doing research affiliation with the Mittal South Asia Institute, Harvard University. Her Takemi research looked at the claims data of the insurance-based healthcare scheme adopted by Maharashtra since inception in 2013. Her last two assignments in India were as department secretary of public health and financial reforms. She was instrumental in convening technical collaborations with the UNICEF, academia, and civil society organizations to use innovation and technology for improving quality and outreach of health services. She institutionalized regular

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performance review mechanisms with data analysis to analyze and address gaps in program implementation. Two of her key initiatives were later expanded to the national level; the first was the right to safe motherhood which encompassed a set of pre- and antenatal care for pregnant mothers till their safe delivery in an institution. The second was standardizing all public health facilities on a basic minimum standard of hygiene and performance on a set of indicators on which they were ranked. She was instrumental in making Maharashtra the first state to adopt a standardized warehouse operations management methodology based on WHO guidelines. In finance, she looked at outlays to outcomes, especially focusing on programs aimed at providing subsidy and support to the people based on income and need. She led state projects on designing governing architectures and policy frameworks for effective, transparent, and seamless disbursement of funds and tracking expenditures against department-specific outcome indicators, enabling higher fiscal efficacy. Her efforts had a direct impact on the state’s income and the government’s ability to fund several key infrastructure and social sector projects in the state. In a career spanning 30 years, she has also served in Delhi at the federal level as well as in two UN missions in Cambodia and Kosovo providing international civil administration through consensus building, negotiation, and setting up of democratic structures through general elections. Her current work is on the intersection of public health, climate change, and disaster management. She can be reached at [email protected], LinkedIn, Twitter- @ssaunik Dr. Pratip Shil is presently working as a scientist with the ICMR – National Institute of Virology, Pune. He is working in computational and mathematical biology including viral disease modeling and climate effects on vector-borne disease in India. He is credited with the first-ever transmission dynamics modeling of Influenza from India. Pratip received his master of science (physics) degree with specialization in biophysics from the University of Pune in 2001 and Ph.D. physics) with biophysics contributions in electroporation technology development for cancer therapy. He is also credited with physics theories of electroporation and has been awarded the Young Scientist Award by the Indian Biophysical Society in 2005. Dr. Subrata N. Das is Ex Director of MRSAC (Maharashtra Remote Sensing Application Centre), Nagpur. He completed his Ph.D. in agronomy and joined ISRO in the year 1991 at RRSSC, Jodhpur. He was involved in various national projects like CAPE (Crop Acreage and Production Estimation), IMSD (Integrated Mission for Sustainable Development), and Desertification Study of Thar Desert. He joined Regional Remote Sensing Centre (RRSC) – Central, Nagpur. Here he was involved in many national and DOS Mission Projects like IMSD, NRIS, Watershed, Wasteland, Inland wetland project, Sericulture, IFFCO, and other projects. He was one of the prominent members of the NRIS & NNRMS standard committee for evolving the “National Standards for GIS database” creation. He was involved in the development of procedures of cadastral map digitization and geo-referencing with satellite data. Presently, he is working with the “Geodatabases Standards” of the thematic and other non-spatial information and their integration and Web GIS of Maharashtra. He has developed various GIS customized tools related to land and water resources management. He has received the ISRO Excellence Award for his contribution in India-WRIS project. He has 30 papers, 15 technical reports and standard documents, and 26 project reports to his credit. Sangita P. Rajankar , M-Tech in electronics, is an associate scientist with Maharashtra Remote Sensing Application Centre. She has over 15 years of experience in design, analysis, and development of GIS applications based on geospatial technology. Her technical expertise includes: Visual Studio.NET, COM based application design and development, ArcObjects programming, Phython, ArcGIS APIs for Javascript, Geo-database design, and relational database management. She had successfully implemented GIS technology in various urban/rural areas, environmental planning, field data collection, ground water, rainfall analysis, Web mapping, infrastructure mapping, land management, and utilities. She has to her credit nearly 25 GIS portals and 22 mobile applications in

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GIS domain. The customized software developed by her, “Civic Information System,” received India Geospatial Excellence Award for the year 2012 in the field of urban planning. She is a key member in development and implementation of MRSAC Geoportal, a gateway to Maharashtra state resources databank. She received the nation e-governance GOLD award for the project “RS & GIS Based Mapping for Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) Using HR Satellite Data.” She has published about 10 research papers in National/International Journals & symposiums. Omkar Khare has over 5 years of experience working in the government sector and with an international agency. He has a graduate degree in geology and a postgraduate degree in disaster management from the Tata Institute of Social Sciences. His sector of work is disaster risk reduction. His major work has primarily been to support the Government of Maharashtra for various scheme implementations and policy planning aimed at reducing the impact of drought and other natural hazards. Currently, he is working as a State Disaster Risk Reduction Consultant for UNICEF, Mumbai, and looking after Risk Informed Programming for the state of Maharashtra. Dr. Krishna A. Hosalikar is working in the field of atmospheric science for last 28 years in different capacities that include radars, airport meteorological instrumentation, aeronautical met communications, network managements, weather forecasting, and various other related projects as an expert. As a Scientist-G and head of Regional Meteorological Centre, Mumbai, his primary domain is to monitor all meteorological, operational, and other requirements of the western region, which includes the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra (Vidarbha not included), and Goa. This includes from real-time generation of the observational data from various observational network to assimilation for analysis to product generation and dissemination to different stake holders on different channels. He coordinates with various users agencies for weather updates and early warnings related to severe weather in the region round the clock. These agencies includes disaster management; agricultural, health, and horological departments of state govts.; railways; NDRF; defence services; aviation; municipal authorities; media; and of course general public. He is member of the high-level committees of IMD, Ministry of Earth Sciences, and State Govt. of Maharashtra in connection with studies related to weather related aspects, instrumentation upgradation, and developments projects. He is also member of the Cloud-Seeding Experiment of the Govt. of Maharashtra for drought-prone areas of the state and Flood Committee member for recent severe floods in Kolhapur, Sangli, and Satara. He has published scientific articles in the leading national and international journals on atmospheric science and instrumentation. Yusuf Kabir’s areas of specialization are Rural Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation, Environment, Climate Change Adaptations, and Sustainable Development. He has two post-graduate degrees and had attended several International certificate courses. His first master’s degree is in Environment Engineering and Management from India’s premier management Institute: Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management (IISWBM), and the second one is in Sustainable Development from Staffordshire University, U.K. Yusuf is a Commonwealth scholar. He has several publications in International Journals, Papers, and Books on water and sanitation issues and State Level Committee Members of different state bodies and knowledge management platforms of CSR. He is working in the Water, Sanitation and Environment sector for the last 20 years. He is with UNICEF India since 2007. Prior to that he worked with organizations like DFID, National Level NGOs, Social and Marketing research consultancy firms like GFK-MODE, ORG India Pvt Ltd. He is a commonwealth scholar and a trained policy writer from Central European University, Budapest, Hungary where he had undergone a summer course on ‘Evidence-Based Policy Formulation’. He runs a blog on Sanitation in the name of WASH Garage: Blog: http://safaiwala.blogspot.in/

Chapter 10

Mapping Climate-Induced Risk for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene in Rajasthan Rushabh Hemani, Nitin Bassi, M. Dinesh Kumar, and Urvashi Chandra

Abstract This chapter discusses the water supply and sanitation situation in Rajasthan, particularly the spatial variation in the characteristics of the water supply systems. It describes the natural, physical, socio-economic and institutional environment which influences the access to drinking water sources and use of water, and access to and use of improved sanitation facilities in Rajasthan. It also reviews the existing policies and norms pertaining to rural water supply in the state to know as to what extent they address the public health concerns associated with climate variability in the state. It then maps the climate-induced WASH risk in all the districts of Rajasthan using a modified analytical framework for assessing climate risk, and validates it using data on public health status, with respect to incidence of waterborne diseases across the state. The WASH risk index was estimated to be varying from a lowest of 0.20 for Jaisalmer District to 0.40 for Sirohi District. The key factors contributing to high climate risk in certain districts and very low risks in certain other districts are identified. Keywords Rajasthan · Climate-induced WASH risk · Mapping · Validation · Water-borne diseases

R. Hemani (*) UNICEF, Jaipur Field Office, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India e-mail: [email protected] N. Bassi Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India M. Dinesh Kumar Institute for Resource Analysis & Policy, Hyderabad, Telangana, India e-mail: [email protected] U. Chandra UNICEF, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_10

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Introduction

Rajasthan in western India is one of the climate hotspots in the world. Almost half of the state’s geographical area has arid to hyper-arid climate. The annual rainfall in the state witnesses extreme temporal variability. The state is historically well-known for frequent droughts of high severity. During 1901–2002, there have been 48 years of droughts of varying intensity, which means that the chance of occurrence of a meteorological drought in the state is 47% (Rathore 2004). The state has the maximum probability of occurrence of droughts in India (Mall et al. 2006). A detailed analysis has revealed that in only 9 out of these years none of the districts in the state were affected by droughts. The western part of the state, the Thar Desert region, also experiences occasional flash floods, in excessively wet years as an aftermath of high-intensity storms. In average terms, the state is the most waterscarce region in the country, with highest aridity and lowest spatial average rainfall. However, because of very low population density, the per capita renewable water availability is not the lowest in the country and is higher than some of the states that are otherwise considered water rich. Yet, some parts of the state face acute shortage of water for irrigation and drinking every year, when the monsoon fails. Climatically, topographically, hydrologically, geologically and also socioeconomically, the state is not a homogeneous entity. From the point of view of drinking water supplies, the perception is that western Rajasthan faces acute perennial shortage due to the centuries-old legacy of that region, and the situation is relatively better in the southern and south-eastern parts. Because of the fact that the frequency and magnitude of climate-induced, water-related hazards such as droughts and floods are greater in the hot and arid regions with low rainfall (as compared to regions which was less arid with relatively larger amount of rainfall), it is generally perceived that such regions face higher climate-induced risk in water supply and sanitation. Such perceptions are the result of skewed understanding of WASH risks, which link risks only to hazards. They fail to capture how the range of complex natural, physical, socio-economic, institutional and policy factors influence the exposure of WASH systems to such hazards and the vulnerability of the communities to the disruptions in WASH caused by the hazard, which vary from region to region. In this chapter, we map out the climate-induced WASH risk in all the districts of Rajasthan using a modified analytical framework for assessing climate risk, and validates it using data on public health status, with respect to incidence of waterborne diseases across the state. For that, we first describe the characteristics of drinking water and sanitation systems in the state. This is followed by a detailed discussion of the natural, physical, socio-economic and institutional environment which influence the access to drinking water sources and use of water, and access to and use of improved sanitation facilities in the state. We also review the existing policies and norms pertaining to rural water supply in the state to know as to what extent they address the public health concerns associated with climate variability in the state.

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Rural Water Supply and Sanitation in Rajasthan: System Characteristics and Spatial Variations

10.2.1 Water Supply The rural water supply systems in Rajasthan include hand pumps, tube wells and bore wells, and reservoir-based multi village and regional water supply schemes. Handpumps are used in all geological environments, including consolidated formations, sedimentary formations and alluvial formations. Tube wells are drilled in sedimentary and alluvial formations for individual village-based water supply. Bore wells are drilled in hard rock formations. Multi-village schemes are designed and built around surface water sources such as water imported through canals, and large surface reservoirs wherever feasibility exists. Recently, the government of Rajasthan has also started setting up Reverse Osmosis plants in villages that do not have freshwater sources, and these plants treat saline groundwater (with TDS more than 2000 ppm) to supply for domestic uses. Historically, the rural communities in the state primarily depended on traditional water harnessing bodies such as Nadis, tankas, tanks and lakes, shallow open wells and Johads for meeting various water needs, particularly for human consumption and livestock drinking. These were by and large under the control of the community and were treated as community assets (Agarwal and Narain 1999). Though failed during prolonged droughts, for several millennia, these structures were able to meet the needs and expectations of the people. But this was at a time when the population density was very low; farming was subsistence based with rain-fed crops and livestock rearing and irrigation needs were extremely limited. Therefore, the pressure on water systems to cater to these needs was also low. However, with changing socio-economic and cultural milieu and with the advent of modern water technologies and the government assuming greater responsibility for provision of drinking water supply as a public duty, the expectations of the communities vis-à-vis the amount of water to be supplied, the quality of water, the reliability of water supply and ‘affordability’ has gone up remarkably. Responding to these growing needs, the governments also plan to cover maximum households in rural and urban areas with formal water supply, of ‘tap water’, that is, treated water, which is free from physical, chemical and biological contamination, supplied through pipes. Drinking water supply is being viewed as a free ‘public good’ by most people. On the other hand, with the expansion of agriculture and growing preference for high-yielding water-intensive crops, the pressure on water resources for irrigation has grown excessively high even in the driest regions of Rajasthan. The natural catchments of rivers and streams, which provided fresh water inflows into ponds, tanks and lakes that once supplies water for cities and villages, are now heavily degraded (Calder et al. 2008). The institutions, which once protected these traditional water bodies from pollution and other threats, no longer exist.

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Groundwater resources are increasingly being exploited in agriculture with large parts of the state facing problems of aquifer mining (CGWB 2014; Tahal Consultants 2013). At the aggregate level, the total groundwater abstraction is 14,519 MCM per annum, against a renewable water availability of 10,821 MCM (Tahal Consultants 2013). While groundwater resources are the major source of water for meeting domestic water needs in rural and urban areas of the state, depletion has significant implications for the sustainability of water supply sources such as tube wells, bore wells and handpumps. The problem of drying up of drinking water wells is more rampant in hard rock regions having limited groundwater potential, and in alluvial areas, the failure of drinking water wells due to depletion is not common. However, the phenomenon scheme becoming dysfunctional due to groundwater contamination from fluoride, salinity and so on is quite common. Extremely low population density in vast areas of the state, comprising the western, northern and north-western parts that are naturally water-scarce, poses new challenges, as modern, regional water supply systems would be prohibitively expensive. Along with concerned relating to quantity, there are serious concerns about deteriorating quality of water. The groundwater quality monitoring undertaken by PHED of Rajasthan showed high levels of fluorides, nitrates, chlorides and TDS in 42,352 out of 75,266 observation wells. Groundwater contamination—with increasing levels of TDS, chlorides, nitrates, sulphates and fluorides—associated with lowering water levels, tapping water from contaminated geological formations and pollution of groundwater and lakes from industrial and urban effluents are major problems in many districts (Tahal Consultants 2013: p 40).1 The Gang and Bhakra canal system, the Indira Gandhi Nahar Pariyojna (IGNP) in the northwest, and the Narmada canal system in the south are the only reliable drinking water sources in the region that are also free from chemical contaminants. But the schemes built around these sources are regional schemes, catering to several villages and sometimes towns and cities. They pose new management challenges. The high population growth rate (one of the highest in the country at 21.44% decadal growth), along with its geographical problems, and the distribution over sparsely populated pockets have aggravated the problem of providing safe drinking water. The population density in the state has increased from 129 per sq. km in 1991, to 165 in 2001 and 201 by 2011. During the 11th five-year plan (2007–2012), 24 major water supply projects amounting to USD 404.5 million were completed in the state. Further, USD 2.67 billion was allocated for water supply in the 12th five-year plan (2012–2017). Out of this, USD 372.8 million was proposed for urban and rural water supply schemes in 2013–2014. These schemes include 21 major water supply schemes and nine new projects to help meet the growing drinking water needs of the state.

1

This was also shown by the monitoring of Central Pollution Control Board and State Pollution Control Board in Pali and Jodhpur Districts to analyse the impact of wastewater on groundwater quality during 1994–2002.

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Table 10.1 provides census of number of villages covered by different types of water supply schemes in different districts of Rajasthan. It shows that handpumps cover a little over 48% of the villages, piped and pump and tank schemes (mostly groundwater-based schemes) cover nearly 8% of the villages, regional water supply Table 10.1 Number of villages covered by different types of water supply schemes (as on 2011)

Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

District name Ajmer Alwar Banswara Baran Barmer Bharatpur Bhilwara Bikaner Bundi Chittorgarh Churu Dausa Dholpur Dungarpur Ganganagar Hanumangarh Jaipur Jaisalmer Jalore Jhalawar Jhunjhunu Jodhpur Karauli Kota Nagaur Pali Pratapgarh Rajsamand S. Madhopur Sikar Sirohi Tonk Udaipur Total

No. of villages covered by different types of water supply schemes Hand Diggi Piped and pump pump Regional and and tank schemes schemes schemes TSS others Total 95 524 358 13 35 1025 270 1389 110 38 147 1954 47 1264 32 32 0 1375 120 949 20 0 0 1089 339 0 1567 27 0 1933 262 735 367 0 0 1364 253 1091 280 36 33 1693 355 9 279 23 138 804 71 730 38 0 0 839 148 1378 26 0 0 1552 126 0 655 27 46 854 111 805 109 0 0 1025 51 694 41 0 0 786 97 648 98 11 0 854 71 177 2322 0 260 2830 175 420 1014 0 164 1773 628 974 273 2 200 2077 86 105 396 0 13 600 114 16 567 0 0 697 135 858 484 0 0 1477 118 38 35 665 0 856 474 9 566 9 0 1058 201 445 109 0 0 755 60 566 186 0 0 812 572 48 559 63 238 1480 168 236 352 29 151 936 50 835 26 0 0 911 140 764 69 0 0 973 116 531 72 0 0 719 101 204 24 656 0 985 65 223 85 70 12 455 57 677 292 5 1 1032 202 1872 99 5 0 2178 5878 19,214 11,510 1711 1438 39,751

Source: PHED, Govt of Rajasthan 2013

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schemes cover nearly 29% of the villages and 4.3% of the villages are covered by traditional water systems such as ponds and tanks. Interestingly, the hottest and acutely (naturally) water-scarce districts of Ganganagar, Barmer, Churu, Jalore, Jodhpur and Nagaur have highest number of villages covered by regional schemes. Given the fact that most regional water supply schemes are based on surface water, it can be inferred that these schemes are based on imported water from IGNP (in the case of Ganganagar, Churu, Jodhpur and Nagaur) and SSP (in the case of Jalore and Barmer) as these districts do not have any large surface water sources. Further, looking at the situation at the household level, only 29% of the rural households have access to tap water (treated water supplied through pipes); 14% of the households have access to well water; a little over 31% have access to handpumps; 14.4% have access to tube wells/bore wells and 7.2% of the households depend on tanks/ponds as the primary source of water supply (see Table 10.2). This is in sharp contrast to urban areas where nearly 83% of the households have access to tap water, and the rest depend on handpumps (6.1%) and wells and tube wells. According to the National Family Health Survey 2015–2016, the percentage of households with an improved source of drinking water in Rajasthan was 85.5; 91.7 for urban areas and 83.3 for rural areas. In 2006, 81.8% of households in Rajasthan had access to an improved source of drinking water. Spatial Variation in Access to Drinking Water Facilities in Rural Rajasthan. A division wise analysis shows that there is significant regional variation in access to drinking water sources, vis-à-vis the types of sources. Bikaner Division has the highest proportion of households having access to tap water, followed by Jaipur and Jodhpur Divisions. Kota, Udaipur and Bharatpur Divisions have the highest proportion of households having access to handpumps. Jaipur has the highest proportion of households having access to tube wells (see Fig. 10.1). The variation is even sharper when we look at eastern and western Rajasthan. The proportion of households depending on handpumps is very high in eastern Rajasthan (46%), where as it is only 6% in Western Rajasthan. The proportion of households depending on Table 10.2 Types of household access to water supply in rural and urban areas (as on 2011)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Source of water supply Tap Water Well Hand pump Tube well/Bore hole Spring River/Canal Tank/Pond/Lake Other Sources Total

Number of households having access to water supply % in % in Rural total Urban total Total 2,554,095 26.9 2,551,782 82.6 5,105,877 1,314,715 13.9 46,975 1.5 1,361,690 2,988,588 31.5 189,499 6.1 3,178,087 1,365,468 14.4 172,418 5.6 1,537,886

% in total 40.6 10.8 25.3 12.2

7982 102,026 687,267 470,222 9,490,363

0.1 0.8 5.9 4.3 100

Source: PHED, Govt of Rajasthan 2013

0.1 1.1 7.2 5 100.1

1231 3612 50,321 75,102 3,090,940

0 0.1 1.6 2.4 99.9

9213 105,638 737,588 545,324 12,581,303

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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ajmer

Tap Water

Well

Tubewell

Other Sources

Bharatpur

Bikaner

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Hand pump

Jaipur

Jodhpur

Kota

Udaipur

Fig. 10.1 Sources of drinking water in different divisions of rural Rajasthan. (Source: Census India 2011)

Eastern Rajasthan

Western Rajasthan

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Tap Water

Well

Handpump

Tubewell

Other Sources

Fig. 10.2 Sources of drinking water—comparisons between western and eastern rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on Census India 2011)

tap water is very high in western Rajasthan (41.1%) against nearly 20% in eastern Rajasthan (see Fig. 10.2). Significant variation also exists between divisions in terms of physical access. The proportion of households having access to water within the dwelling premises is considerable in Bikaner and Jaipur Divisions. It is very low in Bharatpur, Ajmer, Udaipur and Kota Divisions (see Fig. 10.3). Between eastern Rajasthan and western Rajasthan, the physical access is slightly better in western Rajasthan, with nearly 18% of the households having access to water supply within the dwelling premises, against a mere 12.9% in the case of eastern Rajasthan (see Fig. 10.4).

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Within the Premises

Near The Premises

Away

Jaipur

Kota

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Ajmer

Bharatpur

Bikaner

Jodhpur

Udaipur

Fig. 10.3 Access to water supply in different divisions of rural Rajasthan. (Source: Census India 2011)

Within the Premises

Near The Premises

Away

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Eastern Rajasthan

Western Rajasthan

Fig. 10.4 Physical access to water supply sources in eastern and western parts of rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Census of India 2011)

10.2.2 Sanitation in Rural and Urban Areas In 2015–2016, as per the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the households using an improved sanitation facility is 45% at the aggregate level—72.5% for urban and 35.6% for rural areas. As per NFHS, in 2006, only 19.3% of households in Rajasthan used an improved sanitation facility. Thus, there has been a 25.7% increase in the number of households using an improved sanitation facility over the decade from 2006 and 2016. But, the Census 2011 reported a much lower figure with regard to adoption of improved toilets in the state (see Table 10.3). If we take the statistics available from NFHS seriously, it means that the state has made significant progress in promoting improved sanitation in rural areas (from 19.1% to 35%) during the five-year period ending 2016.

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Table 10.3 Percentage of household by availability of toilet connectivity in Rajasthan Type of latrine Flush/pour flush latrine connected to Pit latrine Other latrine

Latrine not available within premises

Total no. of households (excluding institutional households) Latrine facility available within premises Piped sewer system Septic tank Other system With slab/ventilated improved pit Without slab/open pit Night soil disposed into open drain Night soil removed by human Night soil serviced by animal Total Public latrine Open

12,581,303 35.0 7.2 18.6 1.9 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.1 65.0 0.7 64.3

Source: Census of India 2011 Flush/ pour flush latrine

Pit Latrine

Other latrine

Latrine not available

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ajmer

Bharatpur

Bikaner

Jaipur

Jodhpur

Kota

Udaipur

Fig. 10.5 Types of sanitation facility in different divisions of rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Census of India 2011)

The overall adoption of toilets in rural areas was only 19.1% and that for urban areas was 74.5%. Here again, when it comes to rural sanitation, the differences are very sharp amongst divisions. Bikaner has the highest level of adoption of improved toilets (flush or pour flush and pit type latrines) with a percentage adoption of 60. Most other divisions are far behind. Jaipur has the second-highest level of adoption of improved toilets, with 26.2% of the households covered (see Fig. 10.5). Between regions, adoption is 33.6% in western Rajasthan against a mere 12.8% in the case of eastern Rajasthan (see Fig. 10.6). One reason for this discrepancy could be that many households might have gone for constructing toilets in rural areas with the increase in government subsidy for constructing toilets under the Nirmal Bharat Abhiyan. In 2012, 60.1% of the rural households and 14.1% of the urban households lived in dwellings that had no drainage arrangements. Around 78% of rural households

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Western Rajasthan

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Flush/ pour flush latrine

Pit Latrine

Other latrine

Latrine not available

Fig. 10.6 Comparison of types of sanitation—eastern and western rural areas of Rajasthan. (Source: Authors’ estimates based on Census of India 2011)

and 84.6% of urban households got enough water throughout the year for all household activities. Nearly 99% of the urban households and 89.3% of rural households having individual toilets got enough water throughout the year for use in the toilet (Swachhta Status Report 2016). Rural Water Supply and Sanitation in Rajasthan is under the umbrella of Rajeev Gandhi Water Resources Development & Conservation Mission, which includes the Apex Committee of State Water and Sanitation Mission (SWSM), Executive Committee of Sanitation, Programme Monitoring Unit & Sanitation Support Organisation (PMUSSO) and Capacity and Communication Development Unit (CCDU). The Panchayati Raj institutions involved in rural sanitation are the District Water and Sanitation Mission (DWSM) supported by District Support Unit, Block Water and Sanitation Mission, and the Village Health & Sanitation Committee (GoR 2011). According to the draft Rural Sanitation and Hygiene Strategy (2012–2022) of the government of Rajasthan, coverage figures for individual latrines do not reflect actual latrine functionality and use. District Level Household and facility Survey (DLHS) for 2007–2008 indicated that toilet usage during that year was only 12.9%. There is also wide variation in coverage and usage between districts. Individual Household Latrine coverage and usage are as high as 98 and 77% in Hanumangarh; at the same time coverage is only 8.03% in Dholpur and usage only 1.2% in Barmer. The greatest difference between coverage and usage are found in Rajsamand with about 46% coverage and 6% usage, respectively. Variations in terrain and soil type, accessibility, population density, cultural factors and water availability are the factors that are responsible for this disparity between different districts. In class I towns the treatment capacity for sewage is only 4% of the sewage generated while the available capacity is zero for class II towns. Solid and liquid waste management (SLWM) has received very little attention in rural areas. At present, funding for SLWM can form 10% of the funds for the Total Sanitation Campaign. Achievement of Nirmal Gram Puraskar (NGP) status also requires that all solid and liquid waste is properly managed and disposed.

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Though there has been considerable progress in Rajasthan in terms of sanitation coverage, the impact is reduced due to slippage as well as an increase in the number of households. While there has been a lot of focus on making the state Open Defecation Free, focus on Solid and Liquid Waste Management has been minimal. Another problem in Rajasthan that needs to be addressed is provision of sanitation facilities for nomadic communities. Thus, Rajasthan still has a long way to go in terms of achieving total sanitation, including increasing toilet coverage, ensuring usage of the constructed toilets, ensuring functional toilets in schools and other institutions, solid and liquid waste management including septage and faecal sludge management as well as increasing awareness on the importance of sanitation and hygiene for healthy living free from water-related diseases.

10.3

Factors Influencing the Access to and Use of Water

10.3.1 Natural, Physical, Socioeconomic and Institutional Factors Influencing Access to and Use of Water The physical environment consists of water resources systems for water supply, irrigation and flood control. The socio-economic profile covers the population density, area under cropping and irrigation, livestock holding, occupational profile and sources of income, urbanization, and status of drinking water supply and sanitation in rural and urban areas.

10.3.1.1

Natural Environment

Map 10.1 shows the rainfall in Rajasthan based on the average of mean values for different districts. Going by district-wise figures, the highest average mean annual rainfall is in Banswara, and lowest in Jaisalmer. The mean annual rainfall in the state varies from 250 mm in the north-western parts in Jaisalmer to 1100 mm in the southeast. The coefficient of variation is the rainfall is also very high, particularly in the lower rainfall regions, with the values as high as 60%. The number of rainy days decreases gradually from ‘31 to 40 days’ in the south-east to ‘less than 20 days’ in the north-west (Pisharoty 1990). The Aravalli ranges lying in the NE–SW direction make a marked influence on the rainfall in Rajasthan. There is a sharp reduction in the amount of rainfall on the western side of Aravalli ranges, making western Rajasthan the most arid part of India. The average annual rainfall of different districts is given in the figure below. It is as high as 1278.5 mm in Bhilwara. The climatic variable which poses the greatest water management challenge to the state is the high evaporation. The annual reference evapotranspiration values range from 1500 mm in the southern part of the state to 2000 mm in western part in

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Map 10.1 Rainfall in different districts of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017)

Jaisalmer (Pisharoty 1990). The annual potential evaporation is also very high as evident from the map. The spatial trend in reference evapotranspiration in the state is almost opposite to the spatial trend in rainfall. But, in some parts of Udaipur, the reference evapotranspiration is as low as 1400 mm. The different types of soils found in Rajasthan are desert soils with sand dunes extending over the entire western and northern Rajasthan; red desertic soils found in the south central parts covering most parts of Jodhpur, Pali and Jalore Districts; red loam found in parts of Udaipur, the entire Dungarpur and parts of Banswara and Kota District; old alluvium found in most parts of Jaipur, Ajmer, Alwar and Tonk

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Districts; recent alluvium found in the entire eastern side of Rajasthan covering most parts of Dholpur, Sawai Madhopur, Bundi, Kota; Yellowish brown soils in parts of Bhilwara, Chittorgarh and Udaipur; and Sierozeme found in parts of Nagaur and Jaipur Districts. In addition, red and yellow soils are found in the foot hills of the Aravalli ranges on the western side (Map 10.2). Very high soil infiltration rates pose another big challenge to water management. Soil infiltration rates show wide variation across Rajasthan from 0.63 cm/hour to 32/5 cm/hour. The infiltration rates are extremely high in the desert soils found in Churu, Bikaner, Jaisalmer and Ganganagar (2.04 to 32.5 cm/hour), and old alluvium found in Tonk, Alwar and Jaipur (0.82 to 21.0 cm/hour). It is relatively lower in the recent alluvium found in parts of Chittorgarh, Sawai Madhopur, Bundi, Udaipur, Dholpur and Bharatpur (0.63 to 12.0 cm/hour), and black soils found in parts of Jhalawar, Kota and Banswara (0.86 to 2.77 cm/hour). It is high in the red desertic soils found in most parts of Jodhpur, Jhalore, Pali and small parts of Jhunjhunu and

Map 10.2 Distribution of soils. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017)

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Map 10.3 Physiography and drainage of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017)

Sikar (11.82 cm/hour measured only at one location). Sierozeme found in parts of Jaipur, Nagaur and Pali have infiltration values ranging from 8.11 to 25.2 cm/hour. Map 10.3 provides the physiographic features of Rajasthan. Physiographically, Rajasthan can be divided into seven distinct parts, viz., western sandy plains (0–150 m) having 80–100% sand dunes; Ghaggar plain with 40–80% sand dunes (150–300 m); sandy arid plains with slight to 40% sand dunes; semi-arid transitional plains with slight to 40% sand dunes but at an elevation of 300–450 m; Aravalli range and hilly regions from 600 to 900 m and above; north eastern hilly region; eastern plains; Vindhyan scarp land and plateau; and Deccan lava plateau. Both the western sandy plains and sandy arid plains have almost no drainage. The semi-arid transitional plain is drained by Sukri River and Luni River. The Aravalli ranges in the southern part are drained by rivers flowing towards the south, viz., Banas and Sabarmati. The eastern plains, the Vindhyan scarp land and plateau and Deccan lava plateau are drainage by Banas River and Chambal River flowing towards the eastern and north eastern directions, respectively.

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cu.m/capita/annum

1800

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1536

1500 1200

952 993 863 946

900 600 300 180

304 325 326 382

698 609 640 469 473 495 532

0

River Basins in Rajasthan Fig. 10.7 Per capita renewable water availability in different river basins of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017)

The hyper arid to arid climate, soils with very high infiltration rates, and high year-to-year variation in the rainfall makes the hydrology of Rajasthan very unique. There is remarkable variation in the stream-flows of rivers, especially those in western Rajasthan. The state has very few major rivers, namely, Sabarmati, Banas, West Banas, Banganga, Chambal and Mahi (see Table 10.1). Banas is part of Chambal River system. The total Chambal catchment is 72,032 sq. km. Only the upper catchments of these major rivers (Mahi, Banas, West Banas, Sabarmati and Chambal) are located within the state. As the result, the state’s rights to water from these basins are extremely limited. All the rivers originating from the state, including the major rivers, are seasonal in nature. Some of the west flowing rivers of the state are highly ephemeral in nature, and carry stream flows for very few days during the rainy season. In western Rajasthan, most of the area (except that of Luni River) drainage is internal, and streams are lost in the desert. Rajasthan has several large freshwater lakes. Some of them were major sources of water to some cities. The Rajsamand lake, Fateh Sagar lake and Pichola lake in Udaipur, Ana Sagar lake in Ajmer, Pushkar lake, and Gadsisar lake in Jaisalmer are the most important freshwater lakes in the state. The estimates of per capita renewable water availability (m3/annum) in different river basins of Rajasthan are presented in Fig. 10.7. This is based on the data on annual renewable water resources generated in different river basins falling partly or fully within the state plus water imported from outside into these river basins2 (source: Water Resources Planning Department, Govt of Rajasthan), and the 2 The renewable water resources imported in the basins include the water transferred from Sutlej River through Indira Gandhi Nahar Yojna (around 6000 MCM per annum) into Jaisalmer, Bikaner, Ganganagar and Churu, and the water imported from Sardar Sarovar Project through the Narmada Main Canal (around 660 MCM per annum) into the districts of Jalore and Balmer.

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Map 10.4 Geo-hydrological map of Rajasthan. (Source: UNICEF Rajasthan and Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy 2017)

population as per Census 2011. While the average renewable water availability is highest in the Chambal basin, it is lowest in Shekhavati followed by Luni River basin. The per capita renewable water availability includes the replenishable groundwater resources also along with surface water. The geo-hydrological map of Rajasthan shows that the state is characterized by heterogeneity in groundwater conditions (Map 10.4). The state has all formations, viz., unconsolidated, semi-consolidated, fully consolidated, with varying groundwater potential. The unconsolidated formations include (1) recent alluvium, brown sand, clay, silt and gravel, pebble, calcareous concretion, which are fairly thick and regionally extensive, confined to semi-confined aquifers; and (2) older alluvium, laterite, silt, sand, ferruginous concretion and cobbles, confined to semi-confined aquifers to a depth of 39–300 metre below the ground. They are porous formations. The aquifer potential varies widely between 40–100 lps for the very good ones and 10–40 litres per second for moderately good ones and less than 10 lps for low-potential ones. The semi-consolidated formations include claystone, sandstone, grit, silt stone, conglomerate and limestone. They also form porous aquifers and have groundwater potential varying from less than 10 lps to 100 lps. The consolidated formations are classified into four categories: (1) ‘effusives’ comprising basalt with inter-trappean clay; (2) ‘sedimentaries’ comprising sandstone, limestone, dolomite and shale; (3) ‘meta-sedimentaries and meta volcanics’ comprising slate, quartzite, schist, gneiss and marble; and (4) ‘basal crystallines’ comprising phyllite and granite. All these are fissured rocks. The yield of the aquifers varies widely between 5 and 10 lps (good for fissured rocks) to below 1 lps. The hilly aquifers are found in very small pockets in south Rajasthan.

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Geographically, unconsolidated porous regionally extensive formations, with low groundwater potential cover the northern and north eastern and southern parts the state, comprising the entire Ganganagar, most parts of Churu, Pali, Balmer, Jaipur and Alwar Districts. But there are some pockets within these unconsolidated formations which have high yields. These patches are in Jhunjhunu, Sikar and Sirohi Districts (see Map 10.4). The groundwater underlying the entire Ganganagar and Churu Districts is saline, and therefore unfit for irrigation and drinking. Unconsolidated discontinuous aquifers with poor yield potential cover the western parts covering the Thar Desert in Jaisalmer. Most of it is saline, except some patches in the extreme west. Semi-consolidated aquifers of low yield potential are found in parts of Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Churu Districts. There are patches of semi-consolidated aquifers with moderate yield potential in Balmer and Sirohi Districts, and high yield potential in the lower north western parts, covering parts of Bikaner and Churu Districts. These aquifers are inherently saline. But, over the years, the quality of groundwater in this region has improved, reasons for which would be discussed in the next section. Consolidated fissured formations of sandstone and shale with low yield are found in Nagaur and Jodhpur Districts and that with moderate yield potential are found in other parts of Nagaur, Jodhpur and Jaisalmer Districts. Consolidated limestone and dolomite formations in small patches are found in Nagaur, Jodhpur and Jaisalmer Districts. Consolidated fissured formations of meta-sedimentary and meta-volcanic origin with low-yield potential (1–5 lps) are found in the southern parts extending up to the central part of Rajasthan. They cover the entire Udaipur and Dungarpur, and parts of Bhilwara, Jhalore, Chittorgarh and Tonk Districts, and also in some pockets in Jaipur and Alwar Districts. Consolidated fissured sedimentaries with low yield potential are found in parts of Jhalore, Bhilwara, Chittorgarh and the entire Sawai Madhopur, Dholpur and Kota Districts. Basalts with inter-trappean clay are found in southern part of Jhalawar, and eastern part of Dungarpur and Banswara Districts. As evident from the groundwater atlas, groundwater in Rajasthan shows widespread problems of contamination with very high levels of salinity in groundwater affecting large areas, especially in the north-western and northern parts of Aravalli mountain ranges. Salinity in groundwater in the south eastern and southern parts of Rajasthan is generally low. Map 10.5 shows groundwater salinity-affected areas in the state. As evident from Map 10.5, in western and north western, there are very few pockets where the salinity level is less than 1340 ppm (i.e. 2000 S/cm). The fluoride affected areas in Rajasthan are shown in Map 10.6 (source: Geohydrological Atlas of Rajasthan 2013). There are many districts in Rajasthan where more than 50% of the blocks are affected by excessive fluoride content in groundwater. Groundwater in several districts of the state also shows excess levels of chloride and nitrates.

Map 10.5 Groundwater salinity-affected areas in Rajasthan. (Source: Ground Water Department, Government of Rajasthan)

Map 10.6 Fluoride-affected areas in Rajasthan. (Source: Ground Water Department, Government of Rajasthan)

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Droughts and Floods

Given the high inter-annual variability in rainfall resulting in extremely dry and excessively wet years, the region experience droughts and floods. In many districts of north-western and western Rajasthan, the average frequency of occurrence of meteorological droughts is once in three years. Occurrence of excessively high rainfall results in flash floods in western Rajasthan plains as the rivers do not have high much carrying capacity owing to shallow embankments. Many districts of Rajasthan were affected by flash floods during the monsoon of 2016 and 2017. Map 10.7 shows the frequency of occurrence of droughts in different districts of Rajasthan. The eastern districts of Bharatpur and Dholpur have the lowest frequency of occurrence of droughts, that is once in 8 years. The five western districts of Jaisalmer, Sirohi, Jodhpur, Barmer and Jalore experience drought most frequently, that is once in 3 years. The districts of Bikaner, Ganganagar, Churu, Nagaur, Hanumangarh, Bundi, Ajmer and Dungarpur experience droughts slightly less frequently, that is once in 4 years.

Map 10.7 Frequency of occurrence of droughts in different districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Disaster Management, Relief & Civil Defence Department, Government of Rajasthan)

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As regards floods, a large proportion of the flood-prone areas of the state are in western Rajasthan, which is characterized by flat terrain, and the rest of it are in the Chambal River basin.

10.3.2 Physical Environment The important surface irrigation schemes in terms of irrigable command area in the state are IGNP, Chambal, Ganganagar and Bhankhara. IGNP covers large parts of Bikaner, Ganganagar, Hanumangarh and Jaisalmer and a small area in Churu. Chambal scheme covers areas in the districts of Baran, Bundi and Kota. Ganganagar scheme covers parts of Ganganagar District. Bhankhara scheme covers areas in Ganganagar and Hanumangarh. Data on area irrigated by canals in Rajasthan shows that Ganganagar has the largest area under surface irrigation (8.0385 lac ha), fully contributed by canals. This is fully contributed by the Indira Gandhi Nehar Yojna, which brings in water from Sutlej River to the western arid districts of the state. Ganganagar is followed by Hanumangarh District with a total area of 6.11 lac ha and Bikaner with 2.188 lac ha. It is important to remember here that groundwater in the entire Ganganagar District is saline, and not usable for irrigation. None of the districts have area irrigated by tanks, which is the second-largest contributor to surface irrigation in the state. Figure 10.2 shows the total area irrigated by surface sources in different districts of Rajasthan. The figure only shows the names of districts which have some area under irrigation, and excludes those which have no surface irrigation, viz., Dausa, Nagaur, Jhunjhunu, Jodhpur and Sikka. The total surface irrigated area in the state, including area irrigated by tanks (0.137 m. ha), is 2.507 m. ha. The total surface water irrigated area in the state is only 2.507 million hectares. But a large share of the surface irrigation (80%) is concentrated in northern and north-western Rajasthan in the six districts of Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Bikaner, Bundi, Kota and Jaisalmer. Four of these districts (Ganganagar, Jaisalmer, Bikaner and Hanumangarh) have saline groundwater, and this is not suitable for irrigation. Rajasthan stands first in terms of degree and extent of over-exploitation of groundwater resources in the country. One reason for this phenomenon is the absence of sufficient number of large-scale surface irrigation facilities, geographically well-spread. The low-to-medium rainfall in most parts, high evapotranspirative demands for water, high frequency of occurrence of droughts resulting from the departure of rainfall from mean values, and the high per capita arable land (0.18 ha) increase the demand for irrigation water. This is being met through mining of groundwater resources. The free power in agriculture continued for many years, and the existing pump horse power based pricing of electricity encourage overpumping and inefficient and often wasteful use of groundwater. The estimates provided by the Central Ground Water Board shows that Alwar District has the largest amount of renewable groundwater resources (79,036 ha m), followed by Jaipur (60,695 ha m). The resource availability is poorest in Rajsamand,

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Jaisalmer and Churu, which are 9415 ha m, 6009 ha m and 12,898 ha m, respectively. The groundwater availability per unit of arable land shows that the resource is most plenty in Karauli and S. Madhopur. Alwar has a groundwater richness of 0.157 m, where it is 0.098 for Jaipur. But the very fact that resource is available in plenty might have driven agricultural growth in some districts, leading to expansion of net sown area, thereby reducing the relative availability of the resource. In fact, the net cultivated area as a percentage of the geographical area is very high in Jaipur and Alwar. The total utilizable groundwater in the state was estimated to be 8034.7 MCM, against which the total groundwater draft for various uses was estimated to be 11,599 MCM. Mining of groundwater is possible because of large amount of static groundwater resources available in the state mostly in western and north-western Rajasthan, which include both saline groundwater and fresh groundwater. In several districts of western Rajasthan, marginal quality groundwater (with salinity in the range of 2000–2500 ppm) is also used for irrigating crops. Hence, even at the aggregate level, groundwater is over-developed. The gross groundwater irrigated area in the state is 2.962 m. ha. This accounts for 54.2% of the total irrigated area in the state. Out of the 32 districts in the state, groundwater is over-exploited in 21 districts, with the level of average annual abstraction exceeding the average annual recharge. In western and north-western Rajasthan, mostly tube wells are used for groundwater abstraction. In Southern and South-eastern Rajasthan, mainly open wells and bore wells are used.

10.3.3 Socio-economic Environment 10.3.3.1

Population, Population Density and Urbanization

Rajasthan ranks eighth among the Indian states in terms of population with 68 million people (as per 2011 Census), which is roughly 5.6% of the country’s total population. The state is spread over 342,000 sq. km, making it the largest state in India in terms of geographical area. The density of population is about 200 per square kilometre, which is much below the national average of 382 per sq. km. These average figures hide the inter-regional variation with the state. Population density is lowest in Jaisalmer District (17 persons per sq. km), which falls in the Thar Desert, followed by Bikaner District (68 persons per sq. km), and is highest in Jaipur District (595 persons per sq. km). Map 10.8 shows the variation in population density in the state across districts. The decadal population growth rate is 21%, the 11th highest in the country. The low literacy rate of 67% and low sex ratio of 926 are causes of concern (2011 census). While 92.4% of urban men and 82.6% of rural men were literate as per 2011 census, the corresponding figures for women were only 75.8% and 49.8%. Only a quarter of the women in the state had 10 or more years of schooling (NFHS 2015–2016). Low literacy and education have implications for the status of WASH in the state.

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Map 10.8 Variation in population density across Rajasthan districts. (Source: Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP))

Rajasthan falls in the lower range of urbanisation among the states in India and below the national average. Only about 25% of the state’s population is urban; there are 30 cities or towns with a population of one lakh or above. The capital city of Jaipur has a population of 30,73,350, while Jodhpur and Kota have populations of 11,37,815 and 10,01,694, respectively. While the five major districts of Kota, Jaipur, Ajmer, Jodhpur and Bikaner have a level of urbanisation which is higher than the national average, the other 28 districts have below national average level of urbanisation. There were 185 statutory towns and 112 census towns in 2011 in Rajasthan, there being an increase of just one statutory town against an increase of 74 census towns from 2001. It is thus evident that the number of smaller urban centres or urbanizing villages in Rajasthan which satisfy the basic criteria for being classified as urban is on a constant rise. However, the growth of urban areas is skewed towards the eastern part of Rajasthan with no increase of census towns in the western districts of Hanumangarh, Churu and Jaisalmer. Interestingly the urban population in Rajasthan has been growing at a higher rate than the national average. The rate of urbanization is set to increase further due to various developmental initiatives in the state including initiatives in the tourism sector, the Mumbai Industrial Corridor project, Dedicated Freight Corridor initiative, the refinery at Barmer and the Metro and BRTS initiatives at Jaipur which are expected to boost the urban economy and lead to greater overall economic growth).

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The Rajasthan Urban Development policy will contribute significantly to preparing for the economic growth and ensuing urban development expected in the future.

10.3.3.2

Rajasthan Urban Development Policy

The Urban Development Policy for Rajasthan is expected to ‘steer the increasing investments and resources allocated by the Central and State government towards urban development through the centrally sponsored schemes, and ensure that investments have maximum intended impact’ (RUIDP 2015). Jaipur, Udaipur, Ajmer and Kota have been included in the initial shortlist of smart cities. Thirty cities from Rajasthan are eligible for funding under the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT). The goal of AMRUT is to ensure basic infrastructure and service delivery to every household in urban areas and to achieve the benchmarks set by the Ministry of Urban Development. Other projects envisaged include Housing for All, Heritage City Development and Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY) and the National Urban Livelihood Mission (NLUM). The policy is expected to help integrate national and state policies and legislations on urbanisation including housing, transport, water supply, sanitation and disaster management, and provide a singular direction to the efforts of multiple agencies involved in urban development which have varied functions and responsibilities. The four guiding principles of the Rajasthan Urban Development Policy are inclusion, transparency, sustainability and innovation.

10.3.3.3

Agriculture and Animal Husbandry

Rajasthan state has the largest cropped area amongst all the Indian states, that is 25.1 m. ha. However, productivity is quite poor for most crops. Field crops, especially course cereals occupy a very major proportion of the total cropped area. In 2011–2012, cereals occupied 42%; pulses occupied 18%; oil seeds occupied 21% and fodder crops occupied 15% of the gross cropped area (Swain et al. 2012). The total area under cash crops in the state is 0.741 m. ha. It has 0.38 m. ha under spices, 0.10 m. ha under vegetables and a small area under fruit crops (24,000 ha). The state has 1.56 million medium and large farmers, the largest being in Bikaner, Balmer, Jodhpur and Churu. Nearly 71.5% of the operational holdings is with the medium and large farmers, and marginal farmers and small farmers account for only 4.2% and 8.2% of the operational holdings, respectively (source: authors’ own analysis based on socio-economic data of Rajasthan 2010). The area under irrigation in the state is a little over 21% (5.48 m. ha) of the total cropped area, with irrigation systems based on both groundwater and surface water. The Indira Gandhi Nehar Paryojana (IGNP) is the large surface irrigation scheme in the state covering the districts of Hanumangarh, Bikaner, Churu and Ganganagar, irrigating nearly 1.0 m. ha of land in the desert region (Source: authors’ own analysis based on socio-economic data of Rajasthan 2010). Recently, nearly 660 MCM of

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Table 10.4 Population of different types of livestock in Rajasthan Sr. No. 1 2 3 4 5

Types of livestock Buffaloes (combined male and female) Cattle (cows and bulls) Goat Sheep Camels

No. of animals 12,976,095 13,324,462 21,665,939 9,008,979 325,713

Source: 19th Livestock Census 2012, All India Report 2014

water from the Sardar Sarovar Project is annually being supplied to two districts of Rajasthan, viz., Jalore and Barmer, and irrigating nearly 1,00,000 ha in these two districts. Livestock farming is the backbone of rural economy in the dry regions of Rajasthan. It accounts for nearly 15% of the net state domestic product. The livestock holding include cows, bullocks, small ruminants and camel (see Table 10.4). Camels are used for transportation in the desert region of the state. Crop residues constitute the major input for livestock, complimented by green fodder raised in the farms and leafy biomass from trees from the wild and raised on the farm borders. Sheep are reared for milk and meat, and sheep for milk, meat and wool. Large animal holding also means that the households have to make provision for watering of animals along with that for meeting various domestic needs.

10.3.3.4

Social Ingenuity in Dealing with Droughts

Rajasthan is historically known for droughts. For centuries, people of this region lived under extreme climatic conditions of cold wave and scorching heat. It is more so for the western Rajasthan, the part of Rajasthan on the north-western side of the Aravalli mountain ranges (Rathore 2004). There is not a single year in which no parts of the state did not face drought situation. Over centuries, the people of the region have devised coping strategies against droughts. These strategies cover the following: restriction of water consumption for some of the human needs such as washing and bathing; limited use of water for cleaning utensils; a farming system dominated by livestock rearing, with selection of livestock such as camel and goat that depend largely on open grazing; selection of low water-consuming, short duration and drought-tolerant cereal crops such as bajra, sorghum and other traditional course cereals; traditional runoff harvesting systems that enable the use of soil moisture for crop production, with very little area under irrigated production (khadin is one example of traditional runoff farming); grain banks and fodder banks that help store the surplus cereals and dry biomass from the bumper crop production during wet years; and use of leafy biomass from trees raised on farm borders as fodder for animals.

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When faced with acute scarcity of water at the household level, it is quite common among villagers to compromise on their personal hygiene needs by reducing the frequency of activities such as bathing and washing clothes to reduce the demand for water, rather than travelling long distances to fetch water from unconventional sources. Practices such as the use of ash and sand for cleaning utensils that reduce the requirement of water is extensive among village women.

10.3.4 Existing Policies and Norms Various water policies in India has emphasized the importance of levying appropriate water charges for different uses of water and the most recent NWP (2012) has even recognized water as an economic good and recognized the need for efficient pricing of water to reflect on the scarcity value of the resource. However, the approach adopted by the state Governments in fixing water prices is not uniform and characterized by subsidies, no price revision to adjust for inflation and poor revenue recovery (CWC 2010). As a result, water in most Indian cities and towns is under-priced, with damaging long-run consequences for households who have limited and poor-quality water services and for water supplying entities which are unable to invest and expand water coverage (Mathur and Thakur 2003). In Rajasthan, the Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) is responsible for provisioning of drinking water supply to rural and urban areas. The PHED had adopted norms on quantity of water to be supplied for domestic purpose in rural and urban areas as given in Table 10.5. The per capita water supply to be maintained by government schemes as per the notification of the Chief Engineer (HQ), PHED, Rajasthan Jaipur vide his letter no. CE(R)/2012–13/4008 dated 13.08.2012, under the new guidelines of NRDWP issued by MORD, Govt. of India, are also given in the last column of Table 10.5. It is a well-established fact that water requirement for domestic uses, including that for livestock, is a function of climate and is generally high in arid tropics (Espey et al. 1997). As we have seen in Chap. 2, the arid areas in India are also more Table 10.5 Norms on per capita water supply per day as per PHED, Rajasthan Category of areas Rural Drought-prone area Non-drought-prone areas Urban Towns having population more than 20,000 people Towns having population less than 20,000 people

Per capita water supply

Per capita water supply (as per revised norms)

70 litres per day 40 litres per day

100 litres per day 70 litres per day

135 litres per day

135 litres per day

100 litres per day

100 litres per day

Source: Study of Planning of Water Resources of Rajasthan

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drought-prone than semi-arid and sub-humid areas. Hence, the norm of having high per capita water supply for drought-prone areas has some scientific basis. Given the fact that a large part of Rajasthan is arid, and the rest semi-arid, the per capita water supply in rural areas as per the existing norms, that is 40 lpcd and 70 lpcd, for nondrought-prone areas and drought-prone areas, respectively, is insufficient to take care of water needs of livestock population, which are the backbone of rural economy of Rajasthan. At present, the revenue from drinking water supply schemes in the state is about 20% of the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs. Power consumed alone costs three times of revenue collection. The difference in unit cost of supplying water compared to user charges has led to a cycle of higher subsidies (estimated at 74%) to consumers with higher consumption and likely higher wastage. The Public Health and Engineering Department (PHED) spent three times its revenue to meet the rising demand for drinking water between 1991 and 2000. The revenue–expenditure gap has risen over the years.

10.4

Mapping Climate-Induced WASH Risk in Rajasthan

10.4.1 Modifying the Climate Risk Index for Rajasthan The index developed by IRAP to assess the WASH risks induced by climatic extremes is already discussed in Chap. 8. The original index was developed for Maharashtra. However, for employing that index for assessing climate risk in WASH for Rajasthan has a few limitations due to the unique characteristics of natural environment of the state, particularly large tracts with abundant groundwater, mostly saline but with intermittent pockets of freshwater. We will discuss them below. As per ISO standards, the permissible level of TDS for drinking water is 1000 ppm for potable water, though some Indian states have adopted more liberal standards, with water sources of higher salinity (up to 1500 ppm) often used for drinking water supply in situation where no alternatives are available. There are other sources of chemical contamination of groundwater in India. They are: fluoride, nitrates and arsenic. The permissible level of fluoride for drinking water supply is 1.5 ppm. The permissible level of nitrate is 45 ppm. The permissible level of arsenic is 0.05 ppm or 50 parts per billion (Kumar 2017). For other purposes, in addition to freshwater, marginal quality water, especially marginal quality groundwater (with salinity in the range of 1000–2000 ppm) tapped from wells is often used by communities to meet various domestic needs other than direct consumption. In alluvial areas with low-to-medium rainfall and high aridity such as western Rajasthan, there is a large amount of marginal quality groundwater with salinity in the range of 1000–2000 ppm (GOI 2010), and such practices are predominant there. High inter-annual variability in rainfall (with severe drought years and abnormally wet years) is characteristic of such regions (Kumar 2017). In such cases, where

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excessively high rainfall occurs (like the flood causing rainfall events of 2017), the groundwater gets heavily replenished due to high infiltration and the mineral concentration reduces often making it fit for drinking and cooking. The marginal quality groundwater also turns potable due to recharge from canal irrigation and canal seepage. Such phenomena can have a negative impact on the hazards caused by droughts on renewable freshwater availability for drinking water supplies. Community exposure to any hazard is influenced by several factors. Natural factors include depth to water table, climate, and groundwater stock. Groundwater at shallow depth will be susceptible to biological contamination during floods. High groundwater stock can play a vital role in buffering the effects of the risks posed during droughts (Calow et al. 2010). In areas with cold climate, exposure of community to the risks posed during a bad rainfall year will be low as overall water requirements will be less (Kabir et al. 2016a, b). Areas with humid climate have a greater chance of outbreak of water-borne diseases during floods (Githeko et al. 2000). In areas where saline groundwater or groundwater contaminated with harmful minerals and compounds is available, during droughts, absence of alternative sources of water might force the community to use poor-quality water for drinking and cooking and other domestic uses including livestock use (Udmale et al. 2016), thereby increasing their exposure to the problems associated with consumption of poor-quality water. While the prevalence of such practices would depend a lot on the frequency of occurrence and intensity of droughts, it is a coincidence that the areas affected by high groundwater salinity in India (particularly Rajasthan) are also having high drought proneness and vice versa. These two aspects are also included in the index. The modified framework for assessing climate risk in WASH that is used for Rajasthan is given in Table 10.6. In total, there are 31 parameters considered for the composite index. Six of them are for assessing the hazard; sixteen of them are for assessing the exposure and the remaining nine are for assessing vulnerability. The two parameters that are added are: availability of static groundwater that can turn potable during wet years (in the hazard sub-index); and presence of saline groundwater in plenty (considered in the sub-index for exposure).

10.4.2 Computation of the Composite Index The composite index has three sub-indices (one for hazard, one for exposure, and one for vulnerability). Each sub-index has several variables (indicators) whose numerical values (scores) together characterize the attribute represented by the sub-index (say, climate hazard) in quantitative terms. To begin with, a maximum score of ‘3’ (three) will be assigned to any variable in the case of highest risk situation, and the minimum score of ‘1’ (one) will be assigned to the variable for the lowest risk situation. For obtaining numerical value of each sub-index, score for each indicator will be added up. It can be represented as:

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Table 10.6 Identified factors influencing climate-induced risk in rural water and sanitation

Sub-indices (factor) Variable (indicators) Hazard sub-index Natural Rainfall

Rainfall variability

Flood proneness

Aridity

Annual Renewable Water Availability

Availability of static, marginal quality groundwater that can turn potable during very wet years

Exposure sub-index Natural Depth to groundwater table

Temperature and humidity

Groundwater stock

Rationale In high rainfall areas, the drought impacts on hydrology will be less as compared to low rainfall areas and vice versa in low rainfall areas. In areas of high rainfall variability, the frequency of occurrence of severe droughts will be higher ‘Flood prone’ areas are more susceptible to hazards associated with high rainfall Impact of droughts in areas having high aridity in terms of hydrological changes will be more as compared to areas of low aridity Renewable water availability of more than 1700 cum/capita/year is considered as secure The probability of marginal quality groundwater turning potable increases with increase with increase in probability of occurrence of abnormally wet years and proportion of the area under canal irrigation Groundwater at shallow depth will be susceptible to biological contamination during floods In areas with cold and humid climate there is high chance of water and food contamination due to unhygienic conditions and spreading of insect vectors Act as buffer during droughts. Normally available in the alluvial areas, and as valley fills along rivers

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive) Negative

Positive

Positive

Positive

Negative

Negative

Positive

Negative

(continued)

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Table 10.6 (continued)

Sub-indices (factor)

Physical

Variable (indicators) Presence of saline groundwater in plenty

Rationale In areas with high drought proneness, widespread occurrence of saline groundwater will force rural communities to use the poorquality water for drinking and domestic uses increasing their exposure, whenever there is drought

Characteristics of water resources

Perennial water source would significantly reduce community exposure to droughts Old water supply systems are more susceptible to disruption and damage during floods and cyclones Reduces exposure to water scarcity conditions during droughts Reduces chances of contamination of water during collection and storage Reduces chances of vectorborne diseases through food contamination and so on Reduces severity of floods

Condition of water supply system

Provision of buffer storage of water in reservoirs per capita Proportion of HHs covered by tap water supply Proportion of HHs having access to modern toilets

Socioeconomic

Institutional and Policy

Flood control measures such as embankments, dykes, dams and water pumping facilities Proportion of people living in low-lying areas Proportion of people having access to water supply source within the dwelling premise Hand washing before and after food and after toilet use

Existence of policy to hire private tankers for emergency water supply Provision for tanker water supply in rural areas in terms of number of tankers

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive) Positive

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Relatively more exposed to flood hazards Less exposurev to risk posed by droughts or floods

Positive

Hand washing before and after food intake and after toilet use will help reduce chances of food contamination with faecal matter. Help community to face water stress induced by droughts Increases community’s ability to tide over the crisis

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

(continued)

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Table 10.6 (continued)

Sub-indices (factor)

Variable (indicators)

Disaster risk reduction measures available Vulnerability sub-index Natural Climate

Socioeconomic

Population density Proportion of people living under poverty

Proportion of people who are unhealthy

Access to primary health services Percentage of children under the age of 5 with stunting (height-for-age)

Institutional and Policy

Ability to provide relief and rehabilitation measures for floods and cyclones (number of agencies, including Government, private and NGOs) Social ingenuity and cohesion Adequate number of primary and other health infrastructure

Source: Authors’ own analysis

Rationale caused by reduced water supply from public systems Helps community to prepare better for any adverse eventuality In cold and humid areas, communities will be more prone to flood and water scarcity related health risks In hot and arid areas, communities are more prone to heat stroke, dehydration High population density increases vulnerability Vulnerability will be high for those who lack wherewithal to have access to alternate sources of water including purchased water Undernourishment in general and malnourishment, especially among children, make community more vulnerable Good access to primary health facilities make community less vulnerable Physical growth of children (under the age 5), an indicator of the nutritional well-being of the population, influences vulnerability to diseases Improve community adaptive capacity

Improves community adaptive capacity Decreases community vulnerability to diseases

Impact on severity of risk (negative or positive)

Negative

Positive

Positive

Positive Positive

Positive

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative Negative

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index value ¼

Xn

S, i¼1 i

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ð10:1Þ

where S is the product of score and weightage obtained by each variable under the sub-index and n is the total number of variables (indicators) considered for assessing the value of each sub-index. Values computed for each sub-index will be normalized by dividing it by the highest possible value possible for that sub-index. For instance, a sub-index which has five independent variables (indicators) will have a maximum computed value of 15 (i.e. 5 X 3). This means the highest normalized value possible for any sub-index will be 1.0. The composite climate risk index for water and sanitation (RWASH) will be computed by multiplying the values of the three sub-indices, viz., hazard (HWASHSI), exposure (EWASH-SI) and vulnerability (VWASH-SI). It can be mathematically represented as: RWASH
INDEX ¼ HWASH‐SUB‐INDEX  EWASH‐SUB‐INDEX  VWASH‐SUB‐INDEX ð10:2Þ Out of the total 31 variables required for computing the index, a total of 30 were used for actual computation. The only variable which was not included in the calculation was the ‘percentage of low-lying areas’, which is being used in the computation of ‘exposure; as such database is not being compiled by any agency.

10.4.3 Estimates of WASH Risk Index for Rajasthan Districts Of the 31 variables, data for 28 are secondary in nature and were obtained from a variety of public sources, mainly government agencies. Rainfall data for different districts were obtained from IMD. Temperature data were obtained from global climate atlas. The water-resource-related data were obtained from the state Water Resources Department of Rajasthan and Ground Water Department (GWD) of Rajasthan. Data relating to drinking water supply were obtained from Public Health Engineering Department of Rajasthan and that relating to sanitation from the state’s Swachh Bharat Mission. The data relating to drought relief work (tanker water supply policies, number of tankers available for supply, etc.) were obtained from the Disaster Reduction and Relief Department. The computed values of the climate risk index and the three sub-indices are given in Table 10.7. The value of the index ranges from a lowest of 0.20 in the case of Jaisalmer to 0.40 in the case of Sirohi. The climate risk index is higher than 0.30 for 12 districts (these districts are highlighted in Table 10.7. It is in the range of 0.25 and 0.30 for 13 districts, and the value is below 0.25 for seven districts. Interestingly, some of the southern districts have relatively high value of climate risk index, indicating higher WASH-related risk induced by climate hazards, whereas the districts in the west, especially Jaisalmer, Hanumangarh and Ganganagar have low

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Table 10.7 Computed values of WASH risk index and sub-indices District name Ajmer Alwar Banswara Baran Barmer Bharatpur Bhilwara Bikaner Bundi Chittorgarh Churu Dausa Dholpur Dungarpur Ganganagar Hanumangarh Jaipur Jaisalmer Jalore Jhalawar Jhunjhunu Jodhpur Karoli Kota Nagaur Pali Pratapgarh Rajsamand Sawai Madhopur Sikar Sirohi Tonk Udaipur

Hazard sub-index 0.61 0.67 0.67 0.78 0.89 0.67 0.67 0.83 0.61 0.67 0.83 0.72 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.72 0.72 0.61 0.78 0.67 0.72 0.83 0.67 0.67 0.89 0.89 0.67 0.67 0.61

Exposure sub-index 0.67 0.69 0.64 0.67 0.67 0.73 0.62 0.62 0.62 0.67 0.67 0.64 0.67 0.69 0.64 0.53 0.67 0.69 0.69 0.64 0.60 0.67 0.67 0.69 0.67 0.67 0.62 0.67 0.67

Vulnerability sub-index 0.59 0.63 0.67 0.56 0.56 0.67 0.63 0.56 0.63 0.59 0.52 0.67 0.67 0.70 0.59 0.59 0.67 0.48 0.59 0.59 0.56 0.56 0.78 0.63 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.63 0.70

Total risk 0.24 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.33 0.26 0.29 0.24 0.26 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.32 0.25 0.23 0.32 0.20 0.32 0.25 0.24 0.31 0.35 0.29 0.35 0.35 0.25 0.28 0.29

0.67 0.78 0.67 0.72

0.64 0.67 0.64 0.64

0.56 0.78 0.56 0.67

0.24 0.40 0.24 0.31

Source: authors’ own computation based on primary and secondary data Note: Where for the sub-indices (Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability) less than 0.33 is Less Hazard/exposure/vulnerability; between 0.33 and 0.67 is moderate Hazard/exposure/vulnerability; and greater than 0.67 is high Hazard/exposure/vulnerability. For the overall Risk, score less than 0.04 signify low risk; score between 0.05 and 0.30 signifies moderate risk and a total risk greater than 0.30 signifies high risk

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value of climate risk index. One reason for the low value of the risk index for these districts is the relatively low values of hazard index (0.61 for Jaisalmer, 0.67 for Ganganagar and 0.72 for Hanumangarh) and vulnerability index (0.48 for Jaisalmer, and 0.59 for Ganganagar and Hanumangarh). But the districts, viz., Pali, Nagaur and Barmer which are part of the western Thar Desert region display high climate risk, with a computed value of 0.35, 0.35 and 0.33, respectively. Sirohi, which again is a western district, has the highest climate risk value of 0.40. The high values of hazard index obtained for these districts are due to the excessively high values of hazard sub-index of these districts, with low rainfall, high variability in rainfall with frequent drought occurrence, and low per capita renewable water availability. Karauli District, located on the eastern part of the state, also has very high climate risk index of 0.35, in spite of experiencing low degree of climate hazard. This is due to the high vulnerability of the district. As regards the three sub-indices, the value of hazard index ranges from a lowest of 0.61 for Jaisalmer to the highest of 0.89 for Barmer. For six districts, the value of hazard index is higher than 0.80. For eight districts, the value is in the range of 0.70 and 0.80. For the remaining 19 districts, the value is lower than 0.70. Overall, the state experience high degree of water-related hazard from climate extremes. In spite of having the lowest rainfall (in the entire country) and high degree of drought proneness, the hazard index for Jaisalmer is quite low. An important factor which has reduced the degree of climate hazard is the surface water imported into the region through IGNP. The water has been meeting not only the irrigation needs but also the domestic water requirements of people in six districts in western Rajasthan. Population density is one critical factor which, along with effective water resource availability, determines whether water becomes a constraint to socio-economic development (Falkenmark et al. 1989), but often ignored in water resources planning decisions. In this regard, the lowest population density (16 persons per sq. km) of the district keeps the per capita renewable water availability quite remarkably high. As regards exposure of WASH system to climate hazards, the value of the sub-index varies from the lowest of 0.53 for Hanumangarh to the highest of 0.73 for Bharatpur. It is only in one district (Bharatpur), the sub-index for exposure is higher than 0.70. For 31 districts, the sub-index is in the range of 0.60 and 0.70, and in only district, the value of the index is less than 0.60. Access to tap water (treated water supplied through pipes and tap) from regional water supply schemes, access to improved toilets and very high average temperature are among the many factors that reduce exposure of Hanumangarh which has the lowest degree of WASH system exposure. As regards the vulnerability of the communities to climate-induced hazards in WASH, the value ranges from a lowest of 0.48 in the case of Jaisalmer to 0.78 in the case of Karoli and Sirohi. It is only in the case of Jaisalmer the value is less than 0.50. For 17 districts, the value is in the range of 0.50 and 0.60. For 13 districts, the value is in the range of 0.60 and 0.70. For the remaining two districts, the value is above 0.70 (0.78 each for Karoli and Sirohi). Unlike in the case of ‘hazard’ and ‘exposure’ (where the difference between the lowest and highest value is only 0.20), the variation across districts is much higher (0.30) in the case of vulnerability.

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The factors like improved economic conditions and social development indicators (health and education) reduce the vulnerability of the communities to WASH hazards. Here again, population density is a crucial factor which can influence the economic conditions by changing the level of access to production factors (such as cultivable land and grazing land). Low population density also positively influences the access to basic health facilities. It is worth noting here that Jaisalmer has a relatively high value of Human Development Index (HDI). The influence of population density on vulnerability of communities to climate stresses was well demonstrated by the work of Kaly et al. (2004), who development an Environmental Vulnerability Index, with a sub-index for climate change. The district-wise values of the sub-indices for hazards, exposure and vulnerability indices are provided in Figs. 10.8, 10.9 and 10.10, respectively. The values of

1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00

Fig. 10.8 WASH hazard sub-index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values)

0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00

Fig. 10.9 WASH system exposure sub-index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values)

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0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00

Fig. 10.10 Vulnerability sub-index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values)

Ajmer Alwar Banswara Baran Barmer Bharatpur Bhilwara Bikaner Bundi Chittorgarh Churu Dausa Dholpur Dungarpur Ganganagar Hanumangarh Jaipur Jaisalmer Jalore Jhalawar Jhunjhunun Jodhpur Karoli Kota Nagaur Pali Pratapgarh Rajsamand Sawai Madhopur Sikar Sirohi Tonk Udaipur

0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00

Fig. 10.11 Climate risk index. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values)

climate risk index of WASH are provided in both Figs. 10.11 and 10.12 in different graphical forms. Maps 10.9, 10.10, 10.11 and 10.12 show the variation in (WASHrelated) climate hazard, climate exposure of WASH systems and vulnerability of communities and climate risk in WASH, respectively, across districts of Rajasthan.

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Sawai Madhopur Rajsamand

Alwar

0.80 0.70

Banswara Baran Barmer

0.60

Bharatpur

0.50 0.40

Bhilwara

0.30

Pratapgarh

Bikaner

0.20 0.10

Pali

Bundi

0.00

Chittorgarh

Nagaur

Churu

Kota

Dausa

Karoli

Dholpur

Jodhpur Jhunjhunun Jhalawar

Jalore Jaisalmer

Jaipur

Dungarpur Ganganagar Hanumangarh

Hazard Sub-Index Exposure Sub-Index Vulnerability SubIndex

Fig. 10.12 The three dimensions of risk in Rajasthan. (Source: Authors’ analysis using the computed index values)

Map 10.9 Variation in climate hazards (having implications for WASH) across districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values)

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Map 10.10 Variation in exposure of the WASH systems to climate hazards across districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values)

Map 10.11 Variation in vulnerability to climate hazards. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values)

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Map 10.12 Variation in climate risk in WASH across districts of Rajasthan. (Source: Prepared by Authors’ using computed index values)

10.5

Analysing the Link Between Climate-Induced WASH Risk and Public Health Impacts of Disruptions in WASH Services

If the WASH risk index, computed here is robust, the public health impacts of disruptions in WASH services caused by extreme climate events such as droughts and floods should capture these impacts. This means that if we take long-term data on public health consequences of disruptions in WASH services, which captures normal and extreme events (dry years and wet years) adequately in the sense that spatial variation in climate-induced water-related hazards are well captured, then the variation in magnitude of public health impacts should be in the same pattern as that of the variations in the computed values of climate risk in WASH. Empirically this means, the district showing the highest value of WASH risk should have the highest value of public health hazards (reported cases of water-related diseases), if the time series data we collected is representative of the reality on the ground with respect to climate hazards. In order to assess the public health impacts of climate-induced risk in WASH, district level data were obtained from the Public Health department of Rajasthan on water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases, whose incidence is expected to increase with droughts and floods which directly affect the availability of and access

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to water for domestic use and sanitation, in terms of quality and quantity. The data were available for 10 years in the case of vector-borne diseases and 3 years in the case of water-borne diseases, and the estimated annual average is presented in Table 10.8. The normalized figures (i.e. number of cases of water-related diseases Table 10.8 Public health impacts of disruptions in WASH caused by climate extremes in Rajasthan

District AJMER ALWAR BANSWARA BARAN BARMER BHARATPUR BHILWARA BIKANER BUNDI CHITTORGARH CHURU DAUSA DHOLPUR DUNGARPUR GANGANAGAR HANUMANGARH JAIPUR JAISELMER JALORE JHALAWAR JHUNJHUNU JODHPUR KARAULI KOTA NAGAUR PALI PRATAPGARH RAJSAMAND S. MADHOPUR SIKAR SIROHI TONK UDAIPUR

Total people affected by vector-borne disease 889 1548 937 916 3287 1904 1110 2522 975 964 737 484 1180 679 691 1103 1990 1572 511 306 367 1311 674 1430 1329 694 946 717 859 381 499 353 1952

Total people affected by water-borne disease 31,698 68,535 39,728 28,964 20,504 101,859 55,257 13,652 68,535 13,090 8269 32,624 88,229 34,702 18,979 25,730 45,844 8912 29,321 24,067 4875 47,709 38,849 59,942 23,988 36,251 15,076 18,894 28,723 45,830 7625 34,701 54,747

Total waterrelated disease 32,587 70,083 40,664 29,880 23,791 103,763 56,367 16,174 69,510 14,055 9006 33,107 89,409 35,381 19,670 26,833 47,834 10,484 29,833 24,373 5242 49,020 39,523 61,372 25,317 36,945 16,022 19,611 29,583 46,211 8124 35,054 56,699

Number of cases of water-related diseases per 1000 people 13 19 23 24 9 41 23 7 63 9 4 20 74 25 10 15 7 16 16 17 2 13 27 31 8 18 18 17 22 17 8 25 18

Source: Authors’ own estimates based on secondary data provided by Public health department, Govt. of Rajasthan

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per 1000 people are provided in the last column of Table 10.8. The value ranges from a lowest of 2.0 for Jhunjhunu to the highest of 74 for Dholpur. A regression analysis was carried out with the number of incidences of waterrelated diseases per 1000 people against the climate risk in WASH computed for the 33 districts. While doing the regression, figures of water-related diseases for seven districts which appeared to be abnormal, were removed and the regression was run with 26 data points.3 The relationship between computed values of WASH risk and public health impacts (in terms of number of people affected by water-related diseases) was found to be linear. The R2 value was 0.15. Greater the value of climate risk, higher was the average number of reported incidence of diseases. But a unique feature of Rajasthan is the sharp variation in population density across districts. While the effect of population is captured in the normalization done for the analysis (by dividing the number of water-related diseases by population), the effect of geographical area, which remarkably changes the population density, needs to be factored in too. The reason being that for the same degree of climate risk, people living in a larger geographical area are less likely to be affected by diseases. This means, a certain number of people living in a larger geographical area being affected by diseases caused by disruptions in WASH will be indicative of a much severe public health hazard than equal number of people living in a smaller geographical area being affected. Therefore, in order to factor in the effect of both population and geographical area, the figures of number of people affected by waterrelated diseases was divided by population density and regression analysis was performed again with 27 data points (the data for the district of Dholpur was added). The best fit model was a logarithmic curve and the model showed an R2 value of 0.28. Figure 10.13 shows the graphical representation of the relationship between number of cases of water-related diseases and the climate risk index. The regression result does not suggest a very robust statistical model. However, we need to reckon with the following facts. The public-health-related data for waterborne diseases were available only for 3 years, against 10 years for vector-borne diseases and hence are not truly representative of the ground realities vis-à-vis what of disruptions in WASH services can happen as a result of climate hazards. Further, as per the official data, the number of people affected by water-borne diseases constitute a major proportion of the total number of people affected by waterrelated diseases, and since their dependability is questionable, it would have severely hampered the accuracy of the estimates of number of people affected by waterrelated diseases. Third: systematic collection of data pertaining to public health started in Rajasthan only in 2011, and the scientific accuracy of the data so obtained can also be open to question. Finally, in many situations, the occurrence of some of the water-borne diseases may not get reported, especially in the socio-economically backward regions owing to the fact that people do not go to public health centres (PHCs) or hospitals for cure.

3 The districts which were not considered are: Bundi, Bhilwara, Sirohi, Nagaur, Dholpur, Jaisalmer and Tonk.

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y = 4768.1x2.9686 R² = 0.2829

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

Fig. 10.13 Water-related diseases versus climate risk index in WASH. (Source: Authors’ own analysis) Table 10.9 Frequency analysis of climate risk in WASH and occurrence of water-related diseases

1 2 3

Risk index categories 0.24–0.27 0.28–0.31 0.32–0.35

Composite estimate of WRDa 29,971 42,371 42,798

Composite WRD index ¼ composite WRD/population density 142 153 166

Source: Authors’ own analysis WRD: Water-related diseases

a

As the next step in order to examine the practical utility of such indices for broad classification of districts according to the degree of climate-induced WASH risk they face, we carried out simple frequency analysis by dividing the entire state into three categories based on the computed values of climate risk in WASH. Sirohi and Jaisalmer Districts were not considered for this analysis as their data on waterrelated diseases was found to be irregular. The analysis shows that on an average, the districts falling in the low WASH risk category (CRI in the range of 0.24–0.27) have lowest reported incidence of water-related diseases and those falling in the higher WASH risk category have higher incidence of water-related diseases (see Table 10.9). The above sets of analyses validate the composite index for climate risk in WASH.

10.6

Conclusions

The development of vulnerability and risk indices for climate needs to balance the partly competing goals of simplicity, robustness and comprehensiveness (Füssel 2010). The WASH risk index (risk in WASH induced by climatic extremes) developed for Rajasthan has 31 variables of which data on 30 were used for

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computation. As per our computation, Jaisalmer has the lowest climate-induced WASH risk (0.20) and Sirohi has the highest (0.40). The climate risk index is higher than 0.30 for 12 districts. It is in the range of 0.25 and 0.30 for 13 districts, and the value is below 0.25 for seven districts. Some of the southern districts of the state have relatively high value of climate risk index, indicating higher WASH-related risk induced by climate hazards, whereas many districts in the west, especially Jaisalmer, Hanumangarh, Ganganagar have low value of climate risk index. One reason for the low value of the risk index for the latter category is the relatively low values of hazard index and vulnerability index. But the districts, viz., Pali, Nagaur and Barmer, which are part of the western Thar Desert region display high climate risk, with computed values of 0.35, 0.35 and 0.33, respectively. The climate risk index in WASH developed here is robust enough to assess the risk associated with poor water supply, sanitation and hygiene resulting from climate extremes at the district level, as indicated by the good correlation between public health hazards in terms of occurrence of water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases and the computed values of the WASH risk index. Much greater is the practical utility of this index in broad categorization of districts according to the degree of climate risk faced by their WASH systems. Acknowledgement We would like to express sincere thanks to Disaster Management, Relief & Civil Defence Department (DMRCDD), Government of Rajasthan, and Public Health Engineering Department (PHED), Government of Rajasthan, for providing all the necessary support enabling successful completion of this research study.

References Agarwal, A., & Narain, S. (1999). Dying Wisdom: Rise, fall and potential of India’s traditional water harvesting systems. Water Nepal, 87(2), 117–125. New Delhi: Centre for Science and Environment. Calder, I., Gosain, A., Rao, M. R. M., Batchelor, C., Garratt, J., & Bishop, E. (2008). Watershed development in India. 2. New approaches for managing externalities and meeting sustainability requirements. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10(4), 427–440. Calow, R. C., MacDonald, A. M., Nicol, A. L., & Robins, N. S. (2010). Ground water security and drought in Africa: linking availability, access, and demand. Groundwater, 48(2), 246–256. Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization and Japan International Cooperation Agency. (2012). Manual on sewerage and sewage treatment, part B: Operation and maintenance. New Delhi: Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization, Ministry of Urban Development and Japan International Cooperation Agency. Central ground water board (2014) dynamic ground water resources of India, as on 31st. Central Ground Water Board, Ministry of Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation, Faridabad, July, 2014.

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Tahal Consultants. (2013). Study on planning of water resources planning of Rajasthan, draft final report submitted to the state water resources planning Dept., government of Rajasthan, December 2013. Vol. 3., 2c, 2. CWC. (2010). Pricing of water in public system in India. New Delhi: Information Systems Organisation, Water Planning & Projects Wing, Central Water Commission. Department of Rural Development & Panchayati Raj. (2011). Towards Nirmal Rajasthan rural sanitation and hygiene strategy (2012–2022), working draft. Jaipur: Government of Rajasthan. Espey, M., Espey, J., & Shaw, W. D. (1997). Price elasticity of residential demand for water: a meta-analysis. Water Resources Research, 33(6), 1369–1374. Falkenmark, M., Lundqvist, J., & Widstrand, C. (1989, November). Macro-scale water scarcity requires micro-scale approaches: Aspects of vulnerability in semi-arid development. In Natural resources forum (Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 258–267). Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Füssel, H. M. (2010). Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change, exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity,s and impacts, development and climate change (Background note to the World Development Report 2010). Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, August 2009. Githeko, A. K., Lindsay, S. W., Confalonieri, U. E., & Patz, J. A. (2000). Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 78, 1136–1147. Government of India. (2010). Ground water quality in shallow aquifers of India. Faridabad: Central Ground Water Board, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India. International Institute for Population Sciences. (2016). National family health survey – 4, 2015–16, state fact sheet – Rajasthan. New Delhi: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Government of India. Kabir, Y., Niranjan, V., Bassi, N., & Kumar, M. D. (2016a). Multiple water needs of rural households: Studies from three agro-ecologies in Maharashtra. In Rural water systems for multiple uses and livelihood security (pp. 49–68). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Kabir, Y., Bassi, N., Kumar, M. D., & Niranjan, V. (2016b). Multiple-use water systems for reducing household vulnerability to water supply problems. In Rural water systems for multiple uses and livelihood security (pp. 69–86). Amsterdam: Elsevier. Kaly, U., Pratt, C., & Mitchell, J. (2004). The demonstration environmental vulnerability index (EVI) 2004. South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) (Technical Report 384). Suva: South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission. Kumar, M. D. (2017). Market analysis: Desalinated water for irrigation and domestic use in India (Prepared for Securing Water for Food: A Grand Challenge for Development in the Center for Development Innovation U.S. Global Development Lab Submitted by DAI Professional Management Services). Mathur, O. P., & Thakur, S. (2003). Urban water pricing: setting the stage for reforms. New Delhi: National Institute of Public Finance and Policy. Mall, R. K., Gupta, A., Singh, R., Singh, R. S., & Rathore, L. S. (2006). Water resources and climate change: An Indian perspective. Current Science, 90(12), 1610–1626. Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation. http://www.mdws.gov.in/. Accessed Oct 20 2017. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2016). Swachhta status report, 2016. New Delhi: Government of India. Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. (2011). Census data. New Delhi: Government of India. Pisharoty, P. R. (1990). Characteristics of Indian rainfall. In Monograph. Ahmedabad: Physical Research Laboratories. Rajasthan Urban Infrastructure Development Project. (2015). Rajasthan urban development policy – Draft, October 2015. Jaipur: Government of Rajasthan. Rathore, M. S. (2004). State level analysis of drought policies and impacts in Rajasthan, India (Vol. 93) (Drought series paper no. 6). International Water Management Institute.

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Swain, M., Kalamkar, S. S., & Ojha, M. (2012). The state of Rajasthan agriculture 2011–12. Report submitted to the Ministry of Agriculture. VV Nagar, Gujarat, India, December: Govt. of India. Udmale, P., Ichikawa, Y., Nakamura, T., Shaowei, N., Ishidaira, H., & Kazama, F. (2016). Rural drinking water issues in India’s drought-prone area: a case of Maharashtra state. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), 074013. Rushabh Hemani is a development professional with over fifteen years of comprehensive work experience in the field of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH). He is currently working as WASH Specialist in UNICEF Rajasthan state Office and has also worked in Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Assam Offices of UNICEF in India. His core area of work in UNICEF includes water safety and security, climate-resilient WASH pilot, reducing open defecation, WASH in schools, pre-schools, health centres as well as social and behavior change communication. He has worked across several partners including Government, civil society organizations, academic institutions, and other development partners. He has been actively engaged in the development of various knowledge management products including process documentation, monograph and technical papers on issues concerning WASH. Some of his work has been published as journal papers and also a chapter in a book. Nitin Bassi is a Natural Resource Management specialist (M. Phil) having nearly 13 years of experience undertaking research, consultancy, and training in the field of water resource management. Presently, he works as a Principal Researcher with the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP) and is based at their Liaison Office in New Delhi. His areas of work include River Basin and Catchment Assessment, Water Accounting, Institutional and Policy Analysis in Irrigation and Water Supply Management, Water Quality Analysis, Climate Variability, and Climate-induced Water Risk Analysis and Wetland Management. He has been engaged as a consultant/specialist in projects, research studies, and assignments supported by various national and international organizations. Some of these organizations include European Commission, World Bank, GIZ, DFID, WRG 2030/IFC, UNICEF, WWF, IWMI, SRTT, and SDTT. He was involved as one of the specialists for establishing the first phase of the ‘India-EU Water Partnership’ between EU and Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR, RD & GR), Government of India. In its second phase, he is engaged as one of the specialists for providing advisory services for the EU/BMZ co-financed action on ‘Development and implementation support to the India-EU Water Partnership (IEWP)’ and ‘Support to Ganga Rejuvenation (SGR)’. He has co-edited two books that were published by Routledge UK, and has several book chapters, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Also, he regularly reviews manuscripts for Water Policy; International Journal of Water Resources Development; Journal of Hydrology; and Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. M. Dinesh Kumar did his B-Tech in Civil Engineering in 1988, M. E. in Water Resources Management in 1991 and Ph. D in Water Management in 2006. He has 30 years of experience in the field of water resources. He is the Executive Director of the Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy in Hyderabad since 2008. He has offered consultancy services to many international agencies, including the World Bank (India and Sri Lanka offices), Asian Development Bank (ADB), US AID, Australian Council for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), UNICEF; international consulting firms such as Deltares (Holland) and Sheladia Associates (US), and many Indian government agencies (in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala). He has nearly 200 publications to his credit, including seven books, seven edited volumes, several book chapters, and many journal articles. He has published in many international peerreviewed journals viz., Water Policy, Energy Policy, Water International, Journal of Hydrology, Water Resources Management, Int. Journal of WRD and Water Economics and Policy. He is currently also Associate Editor of Water Policy and Member of the Editorial Board of Int. Journal of

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WRD. His research works of global relevance are: integrated water resources management in river basins; water use efficiency and water productivity in agriculture; global virtual water trade; methodology for assessing global water & food security challenges; climate risk in WASH; and socio-economic impacts of large water systems. Urvashi Chandra is a trained social scientist and was awarded the Doctoral Degree in Sociology from Jawaharlal Nehru University in 2003. She has an 18 years of overall work experience in the social development sector including 10 years of work experience in the realm of climate change. She has also been trained on climate change from University of Heidelberg, Germany. Urvashi Chandra is currently working as Programme Officer, Risk & Resilience in UNICEF Uttar Pradesh and has worked as the Disaster Risk Reduction Officer in UNICEF Rajasthan from 2015–2017. She is also the climate change focal point for DRR Section in UNICEF India Country Office. Her key strengths are disaster risk reduction, climate change, environment, research, monitoring & evaluation, and programme management. She has worked in many bilateral and multi-lateral organisations such as UNICEF, German Development Cooperation, WHO SEARO, European Commission, Johns Hopkins University Centre for Communication Programs, BBC World Service Trust.

Chapter 11

Action Plans for Building Climate-Resilient Water Supply and Sanitation Systems: Results from Case Studies Nitin Bassi, Rushabh Hemani, and Prasoon Mankad

Abstract This chapter discusses the specific action plans to improve the climate resilience of Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) in two arid districts, viz., Barmer and Sirohi in western Rajasthan, that were found to be facing high WASH-related risk. The interventions take into account the variation within each district in the natural, physical, socio-economic, and institutional factors that affect WASH system performance. These factors included rainfall and its variability; temperature; frequency of flood-occurrence and drought proneness; geology of the area; water table conditions; groundwater salinity, presence of fluorides in groundwater; availability of surface water including imported water; characteristics of the dominant water supply system; percentage households (HHs) having access to water supply in the dwelling premise; percentage HHs having access to improved sanitation facilities; and percentage households having access to toilets with water supply connections. The institutional capacity building and policy reforms needed to affect the design and implementation of climate-resilient WASH are also analysed and discussed. Keywords Barmer · Sirohi · Action plans · Climate-resilience · Institutional capacity building · Policy reforms

N. Bassi (*) Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy (IRAP), Liaison Office, New Delhi, India R. Hemani UNICEF, Jaipur Field Office, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India e-mail: [email protected] P. Mankad UNICEF Rajasthan State Office, Jaipur, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 M. D. Kumar et al. (eds.), Management of Irrigation and Water Supply Under Climatic Extremes, Global Issues in Water Policy 25, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59459-6_11

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Introduction

The state of Rajasthan in western India is characterized by low to very low rainfall and excessively high aridity due to high temperatures prevailing in large parts of the state (Kumar et al. 2006; Rao 2009; Goyal 2010; Bassi and Vedantam 2013). The mean annual rainfall in the state varies from 250 mm in the western parts to about 650 mm in the east. The annual potential evapotranspiration ranges from 1400 mm in the eastern part to 2000 mm in the west (Poonia and Rao 2013). As a result, the state has one of the lowest per capita renewable water resources of 600 cubic metres per annum in the world (Jat et al. 2009). This is exacerbated by high inter-annual variability in climate parameters particularly monsoon rains. The coefficient of variation is the rainfall is very high, particularly in the lower rainfall regions, with the values as high as 60%. Further, the number of rainy days decreases gradually from 31 to 40 days in the south-east to less than 20 days in the north-west (Pisharoty 1990). Climate extremes such as droughts and floods which occur quite frequently in Rajasthan have the potential to cause disruptions in the WASH systems and the communities which they support, in a major way, by causing drastic changes in water resource availability in terms of both quantity and quality (UNICEF and IRAP 2017). At the same time, there is vast heterogeneity in the natural environment (hydrology, geo-hydrology, and climate), characteristics of the physical systems of water supply, socio-economic conditions, and cultural environment among the different regions that make up the state of Rajasthan (UNICEF and IRAP 2017). Such variations have significant implications for the water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) related risks faced by communities especially women and children from climate extremes. To capture the climate-induced WASH risk in the state, a composite risk index was developed based on knowledge generated on: impacts of climate extremes on hydrology and water resources in the form of floods and droughts; the impact of extreme hydrological events on water supply and sanitation systems; impacts of disruptions in WASH services on public health; and the influence climate, hydrology, WASH system characteristics, socio-economic conditions of the communities and institutional and policy environment have in deciding the risk in WASH induced by climate extremes. Further, the values of the index were computed at the district level for the entire state of Rajasthan. The index and its computation are discussed in detail in Chap. 10. As per the computed composite risk index, both Barmer and Sirohi are among the districts with the highest value for the WASH risk index in the state. While for Barmer the value is 0.33, for Sirohi it is the highest in the state at 0.40. Considering the risk posed by climate extremes on the WASH, action plans were prepared to improve the climate resilience of WASH in the two districts including strategy in designing a climate-resilient WASH and building institutional capacities in the WASH sector. Further, the strategies discussed in the action plans will help in

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enhancing the capacities of the line departments responsible for drinking water and sanitation in the state for building climate-resilient WASH systems.

11.2

Methodology

11.2.1 Case Study Area The state of Rajasthan has 33 districts that are distributed among seven divisions namely Ajmer, Bharatpur, Bikaner, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kota, and Udaipur (see Fig. 11.1). The districts of Barmer and Sirohi come under the Jodhpur Division that is a part of the Thar Desert. The geographical area of Barmer District is 28,300 square kilometres (sq km) and that of Sirohi is only 5136 sq. km. Barmer is the second-largest district in the state and is divided into eight blocks,1 whereas Sirohi is divided into five blocks.2 As per the Census of India 2011 (GoI 2011), the total population in Barmer is 2.6 million (93% is rural), and in Sirohi it is about 1.0 million. However, at only about 92 persons per sq. km, Barmer is among the districts with the lowest population density in the state.

11.2.2 Analysis of Climate Risk in WASH in Rural Areas of Barmer and Sirohi A detailed analysis of the natural, physical, socio-economic, and institutional settings that have a bearing on WASH services in the two districts was undertaken. It included analysis of the hydrology, climate, water resources endowments (depth to the groundwater table, marginal quality groundwater), characteristics of water sources (perennial or seasonal), flood proneness, and water storage infrastructure in the two districts. These factors influence climate-related WASH hazards, to a certain degree the exposure of the WASH system to the hazard, and to some extent the vulnerability of the communities to WASH disruptions. Further, assessments were made on the physical characteristics of the WASH systems in the districts, buffer storage in reservoirs/lakes to tide over crisis, community’s access to water supply and sanitation services (type and degree), and administrative set-up in the district for dealing with crises vis-à-vis water supply and sanitation. All these factors would determine not only the degree of disruptions in the WASH systems that the climate hazards can induce but also community vulnerability to these disruptions.

1 In district Barmer, the eight blocks are: Baytoo, Balotra, Barmer, Chohtan, Dhorimanna, Sindhari, Siwana, and Sheo. 2 In district Sirohi, the five blocks are: Abu Road, Pindwara, Reodar, Sheoganj, and Sirohi.

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Fig. 11.1 Map showing the location of Rajasthan and its different divisions and districts. (Source: Institute for Resource Analysis and Policy)

11.2.3 Planning of Technical and Institutional Measures The analyses discussed in 2.2 helped in planning the technical, institutional, and behavioural change measures for climate-resilient WASH programmes that are suitable for Barmer and Sirohi. These interventions were in the form of ‘institutional change’, improvements in the technical strategies and engineering interventions, and behavioural change programmes. For the technological improvements, the focus was on the new structural features and building and operational aspects of the technical systems.

11.2.4 Stakeholders’ Consultations The intervention planning exercise was done with the involvement of officials of the concerned district sectoral agencies such as the Water Resources Department

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(WRD), Public Health Engineering Department (PHED), Ground Water Department (GWD), Panchayati Raj Institutions3 (PRIs), and Water and Sanitation Support Organisation (WSSO), depending on the factors identified as causing high climateinduced disruptions in WASH. For reducing the shortage of drinking water, the exercise involved WRD to examine the feasibility of either modernizing traditional WH systems, or building new reservoirs, or undertaking water transfer projects. For building or retrofitting water supply infrastructure, the exercise involved PHED. In the case of the knowledge gap on good sanitation and hygiene practices among the communities, the planning of intervention involved WSSO. For addressing the problem of inadequate public health infrastructure, the preparation of the action plan involved the PHED. To address the problem of lack of adequate access to sanitation facilities, the PRIs and WSSO were involved. For achieving this, a workshop was organized to share the analysis undertaken using secondary and primary data from the two districts (on the factors mentioned in Sect. 11.2.2) with the stakeholders and the method of using these outputs for WASH planning for improved climate resilience (as mentioned in Sect. 11.2.3) was discussed. Thereafter, the inputs obtained from the participants were used for giving final shape to the district-level action plans. The basic purpose of involving these institutions is that they get oriented to the emerging concepts in planning and design of climate-resilient WASH systems and familiarise them with ‘criteria setting’ and the use of critical variables for their planning and design. Using all the analysis and inputs, a solution matrix was developed that comprised strategies for improving water resources availability in terms of quantity and quality; improving water supply and water access; improving access to and use of modern sanitation systems; and affecting behavioural changes concerning water collection and storage, and personal hygiene. The suggested interventions include short-term, medium-term, and long-term measures.

11.3

Variations in Factors Influencing Climate-Induced WASH Risks in Rural Areas of Barmer and Sirohi

Variations in various natural, physical, and socio-economic factors that influence climate-induced WASH risks in the rural areas of Barmer and Sirohi are discussed below.

3

Panchayati Raj Institutions are the three-tier structure of the local self-government institutions in rural India. District Panchayat is an apex organization, Block Panchayat is in the second tier, and the village Panchayat is the third and last tier.

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11.3.1 Barmer District Barmer experiences an arid climate. The mean annual rainfall (1971–2016) of the district is 347 mm, maximum being 807.6 mm (in 1990) and the minimum 181.4 mm (in 2009), thus exhibiting a high inter-annual variability. About 90% of the rainfall is received during the southwest monsoon that is between June and September (see Fig. 11.2). The average annual temperature is 27.71
C, varying from a high 48
C in summers to a low of 2
C in winters. The mean daily maximum temperature is 34.65
C and daily minimum is 20.72
C. The average annual relative humidity is 46.27%. Given the high inter-annual variability in rainfall resulting in extremely dry and excessively wet years, the occurrence of climate extremes (floods and droughts) is common in Barmer where the average frequency of occurrence of meteorological drought is once in three years. A high proportion of area in Barmer is prone to flash floods as the rivers in the western part of Rajasthan do not have high carrying capacity owing to shallow embankments. The district’s terrain is largely flat. Luni River that has one of the lowest renewable water availability (325 cubic metres) in the world is a major river flowing through the district. Most of the district is covered by desert sand and sand dunes with rock formations occupying the area in patches. The sandy soil has a little water holding capacity, leading to rainwater draining away during the monsoon. However, some areas of the district have a subterranean gypsum layer that prevents rainwater from seeping through. Such areas have numerous traditional water harvesting structures like Nadi4 and Tankas5 that providedrinking water security to the community, especially during years of low rainfall. The main water-bearing formations in the district are rhyolites and granites of post Delhi, Lathi sandstone, Tertiary sandstone, and Quaternary alluvium, formed at deeper levels below the surface covered by windblown sand. In Quaternary alluvium, groundwater occurs under semi-confined to unconfined conditions. In semiconsolidated Tertiary and Mesozoic formations, it occurs under unconfined to confined conditions and in weathered and fractured zones in hard rocks under phreatic conditions. Younger and older alluviums together contribute to about 54% of the aquifers in the district, tertiary sandstone forms about 23% of aquifers, Rhyolite forms up to another 12% of aquifer area, and in the rest of the area, aquifers are formed in granite or sandstone. Sandstones occur in the Sheo and Baintu blocks with some granite in the eastern part of Sheo. Ryololite is predominantly found in Barmer block while the rest of the district is mainly underlain by alluvium (CGWB 2013a). In most of the alluvial part of Luni Basin and adjoining areas within Balotra, Siwana, Sindhari, and parts of Dhorimanna blocks, and isolated pockets in the 4

Nadi refers to a pond. Tankas are the traditional underground water harvesting structures that are common in western Rajasthan. 5

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200 Rainfall in mm

293

150 101

100

43.6

50 0

0.22

4.52 10.98

21.26 4.2

2.04

0

5.8

2.22

Fig. 11.2 Mean monthly rainfall of Barmer District (2006–2010). (Source: Authors’ analysis based on data from Water Resources Department, Government of Rajasthan)

Baytoo, Chohtan, and Dhorimanna blocks, the pre-monsoon depth to groundwater levels range from less than 10 metres (m) to 70 m below the ground level. In the north and south-western parts, the groundwater generally occurs at deeper levels that is, beyond 50 m and reaching even up to 110 m in most parts of Barmer, Baytoo, and Sheo blocks (CGWB 2013a). The present stage of groundwater development6 in the district is 114.22% (CGWB 2013a). Out of eight blocks in the district, one block falls in ‘safe’ category, two blocks in critical, and five in the ‘over-exploited’ category.7 In three of the overexploited blocks, groundwater potential itself is less, ranging from 6.8 to 22 million cubic metres (MCM), whereas in two others, the annual groundwater draft for irrigation alone is more than the replenishable amount (see Table 11.1). Thus, lowering of the water table and drying up of a large number of shallow wells (or reduction in their yields) is quite common in over-exploited blocks. Further, the groundwater in about 97.6% of the habitations is chemically contaminated mainly due to the excess level of salinity, with electrical conductivity (EC) up to 5000 μS/cm at 25
C. Only about 4% of the district area has EC values within the permissible limits in groundwater that can be used for domestic purposes. In general, the quality of groundwater deteriorates from upland and hilly tracts towards River Luni and its tributaries in the lower reaches (CGWB 2013a). Overall, about 39% of the total households (HHs) in Barmer are covered by the improved water sources (comprising piped water, stand posts, hand pumps, tube wells, and bore wells), 83% in the urban and only 36% in the rural areas. While 71% of urban HHs in Barmer have access to water supply within their premises, only 7% 6 Stage of groundwater development is the proportion of annual groundwater draft with respect to the net annual groundwater recharge. 7 The safe and semi-critical blocks are those where the stage of groundwater development is up to 90%, for critical blocks it is between 90 and 100%, and for the overexploited blocks it more than 100% (Source: Central Ground Water Board, Government of India).

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Table 11.1 Blockwise status of groundwater resources (2009) in Barmer District

Block name Baytoo

Total annual replenishable groundwater in MCMa 6.84

Net annual groundwater availability (MCM) 6.46

Gross draft for all uses (MCM) 13.91

Stage of groundwater development (per cent) 215

Balotra

22.16

20.32

31.29

154

Barmer Chohtan Dhorimanna

28.90 50.46 48.18

26.55 45.41 44.35

9.87 44.09 60.80

37 97 137

Sindhari Siwana

44.78 58.86

41.09 55.28

39.28 67.03

95 121

Sheo

19.13

18.04

27.85

154

279.30

257.51

294.14

114

District overall

Category Overexploited Overexploited Safe Critical Overexploited Critical Overexploited Overexploited Overexploited

Source: Authors’ analysis based on CGWB 2013a This excludes groundwater in saline areas of the district that has very high levels of Total Dissolved Solutes (TDS) and is unfit for consumption

a

of rural HHs have access to water supply within their premises. Further, a high proportion of urban HHs (83%) have latrines within the dwelling premise, while for rural HHs it is very low (only 10%). The figures for HHs with improved latrines (flush/pour type latrines and pit type latrines) are 62 and 9% for the urban and rural areas, respectively (Census of India 2011a). The blockwise situation concerning rural HH access to water supply and sanitation (within dwelling premises) is presented in Figs. 11.3 and 11.4, respectively. As per the Swachh Bharat Mission—Gramin latest data sets, Rajasthan has achieved 100% toilet coverage in rural areas with about 76.2 lac toilets constructed between October 2014 and February 2019. However, random checks in the villages of Barmer District reveal that not all the toilets are in use, as provision for water supply is not kept in them. To sum up, it appears that the climate risk to WASH in Barmer is high due to two reasons. First: the district frequently experiences either droughts or flash floods, which have the potential to cause disruptions in WASH services, indicated by a very high hazard sub-index of 0.89. Second: a very low proportion of rural households have access to water supply within their premises, thus increasing community exposure (exposure sub-index of 0.67) to the disruptions in water supply services caused by climate hazards.

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% HHs with access

Within premises

Near premises

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Away

65 52 39 26 13 0 Sheo

Baytoo Pachpadra Siwana

Gudha Malani

Barmer

Ramsar

Chohtan

Blocks in Barmer district Fig. 11.3 Blockwise HHs access to drinking water sources in rural areas of Barmer District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011a)

%HHs having access within the premises

Flush/pour flush latrine

Pit latrine

Other latrine

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Blocks in Barmer district Fig. 11.4 Blockwise access to sanitation facilities within the HH premises in rural areas of Barmer District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011a)

11.3.2 Conditions in Sirohi The Sirohi District is characterized by undulating topography with a large part of the district occupied by vast semi-desert plain marked by isolated hillocks and a chain of hills forming the eastern fringe of the Thar Desert, the Abu-Sirohi range dividing the district into two parts. Mount Abu is situated at about 1219 m above mean sea level. The average annual rainfall (1991–2011) of the district is 760 mm; the annual rainfall gradually decreases from the southern part to the northern part. The highest mean rainfall is 1488 mm at Mount Abu and the lowest mean is 542 mm at Sheoganj.

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As was the case with Barmer, about 90% of the rainfall is received during the southwest monsoon. The district experiences mild or normal drought once in 2 years; severe drought is rare in the district. The portion of the district west and north of Mount Abu is drier, lying in the rain shadow of the mountain. The maximum temperature varies from 46
C in Giyoli to 36
C in Mount Abu. West Banas is the most important river in Sirohi. Jawai is the main river of the north-west part which joins the Luni River. Other rivers which flow in the district are Khari, Sukli, Bandi, Kapalganga, and Krishnavati. Alluvial aquifers occupy about 20% of the district area predominantly in the north-west and south-western parts of the district that includes the Reodar, Sirohi, and Sheoganj blocks. Weathered, fractured, and jointed openings in granite also constitute good aquifers in the district, and the granite aquifers occupy very large areas and occur in wide belts in western, central, and eastern parts spread over all the blocks. The other two hard-rock aquifers are phyllite and schist appearing in the west and east of the central hilly ridge line and present in all the blocks (CGWB 2013b). The depth of open wells tapping hard-rock aquifers ranges from 25 to 40 m, the yield of wells varying from 30 to 250 cubic metre (cu m) per day. The depth to water level in the area tapping these aquifers ranges from 20 m to 40 m in the northern part and 10 m to 20 m in the western part. Alluvium overlies the weathered hard-rock formation in the northern and western parts of the district. It has a limited thickness and areal extent. It is confined to the catchments of Jawai, Sukli, and Khari Rivers. The depth to water level is less than 10 m near river courses but exceeds 35 m in other areas. The depth of wells ranges from 25 m to 40 m. Yield of wells ranges from 150 to 1000 cu m per day. In most of the alluvial part of Sheoganj and Sirohi blocks, the groundwater occurs at moderate depths ranging from 20 m to 40 m below ground level and in some places at more than 40 m. There is a zone in the southern part of Abu Road and Reodar blocks where the depth to water level is less than 10 m. In other areas groundwater generally occurs at 10–30 m below ground level (CGWB 2013b). The stage of groundwater development in the district is 109.4% (CGWB 2013b). In two blocks groundwater development has already exceeded 100% and has been categorized as ‘over-exploited’. Remaining blocks fall under the ‘semi-critical’ category where groundwater development is approaching 100% (see Table 11.2). Fluoride concentration greater than 1.5 mg/lit is found in more than 40% of villages and habitations, mainly in central and western parts of the district. The salinity of more than 2000 mg/l is observed in 20% villages scattered across central and eastern parts of the district. The water supply situation in Sirohi is better than that of Barmer. About 97% of the urban HHs and 77% of the rural HHs in the district have access to an improved source of drinking water. While 79% of urban HHs in Sirohi have access to water supply within their premises, only 29% of rural HHs have access to water supply within their premises. Further, 68% of the urban HHs and only 16% of the rural HHs have latrines within the dwelling premises and almost all of them are improved ones (Census of India 2011b). The blockwise situation concerning rural HH access to

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Table 11.2 Blockwise groundwater resources (2009) in Sirohi

Block name Abu road Pindwara Reodar

Total annual replenishable groundwater (MCM) 28.4 61.9 71.6

Net annual groundwater availability (MCM) 26.5 55.9 65.1

Gross draft for all uses (MCM) 25.9 55.8 85.4

Stage of groundwater development (per cent) 97.6 99.8 131.2

Sheoganj

67.8

61.1

67.7

111

Sirohi District overall

71.2 301

65.6 274.2

65.2 300

99.4 109

Category Critical Critical Overexploited Overexploited Critical Overexploited

Source: Authors’ analysis based on CGWB 2013b

percent HHs with access

Within premises

Outside premises

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sheoganj

Sirohi

Pindwara

Abu Road

Reodar

Blocks in Sirohi district Fig. 11.5 Blockwise HHs access to drinking water sources in rural areas of Sirohi District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011b)

water supply and sanitation (within dwelling premises) is presented in Figs. 11.5 and 11.6, respectively. As per the Swachh Bharat Mission—Gramin data sets of February 2019, Sirohi has also achieved 100% toilet coverage in rural areas. However, as is the case with other districts in the state, there is no clarity on the type of toilets constructed (whether single or double pit, with or without septic tanks) and whether the water and electricity connections were provided in the toilets. In the case of Sirohi, climate-induced risk in WASH is high due to two reasons. First, the disruptions in WASH services that can be caused by climate hazards are high in the district due to poor household access to piped water supply and improved sanitation systems, indicated by a relatively high value of exposure sub-index (0.78). Second: the communities there are highly vulnerable to the disruptions in WASH, probably on account of low institutional preparedness to counter the adverse impacts

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percent HHs having access within the premises

Flush/pour flush latrine

Pit latrine

Other latrine

Pindwara

Abu Road

15 12 9

6 3 0 Sheoganj

Sirohi

Reodar

Blocks in Sirohi district Fig. 11.6 Blockwise access to sanitation facilities within the HH premises in rural areas of Sirohi District. (Source: Authors’ analysis based on Census of India 2011b)

of droughts, indicated by a high value of vulnerability sub-index (0.78). It may be noted that the density of population is low in Sirohi and the Human Development Index values are relatively high (0.65 in comparison to 0.58 in Barmer). The fact that the district has a high vulnerability to climate-induced risk in WASH points to inadequacy in institutional preparedness (discussed later in the chapter).

11.4

Existing Institutional and Technical Arrangements for Climate-Resilient WASH Services in the two Districts

11.4.1 Institutional Set-up for Delivering WASH Services in Rural Areas Public Health Engineering Department (PHED) is a single agency responsible for planning, designing, implementing, and maintaining rural water supply schemes in the Rajasthan state. Further, PHED is entrusted with enforcing state groundwater legislation and regular monitoring of the drinking water sources. Also, there is Water and Sanitation Support Organisation (WSSO) that is responsible for undertaking training and capacity building activities on the rural water supply and sanitation programmes for the stakeholders at the district, block, and village levels. In 2014, the state government come up with action plans for relief and rehabilitation for droughts and floods, two major climate-induced hazards in the state. District-level disaster management plans were also prepared. As per the action plans, government, non-government, and decentralized institutions were made responsible to ensure provision of safe water, sanitation, and hygiene services during climate extremes. Government institutions responsible for ensuring the WASH

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services include PHED, WSSO, Department of Medical and Health, WRD, Soil and Water Conservation Department, Public Works Department (PWD), Rural Development Department (RDD), and District Administration. Decentralized institutions include local self-governing institutions, that is Municipal Corporation in urban areas and Panchayati Raj Institutions in rural areas. In non-government category, mainly United Nations (UN) agencies were included to provide support during the climate-induced hazard. In an action plan on droughts, there is a strong emphasis on water source strengthening (repair and restoration) and regulating irrigation water use during years of below-normal rainfall (pre-drought conditions). However, there is no specific focus for planning, design, and building of climate-resilient WASH systems as a long-term strategy for ensuring provision of water and sanitation services during droughts. In an action plan on floods, both structural and non-structural measures have been suggested as a strategy for flood management in the affected districts. The roles and responsibilities related to ensuring WASH services during floods come in response and rehabilitation stage. However, there is no clarity on the types of water supply systems that can withstand the destructive force of floods or are not vulnerable to bacteriological contamination during floods and can provide potable water for domestic and hygiene uses during or post-disaster such as floods. Also, there is no mention of building sanitation systems that are suitable for flood-prone areas.

11.4.2 Situation of Rural Water Supply in Sirohi and Barmer As of June 2019, most of the rural water supply schemes in Sirohi and Barmer are based on groundwater. They are mainly categorized into: hand pump scheme, pump and tank (storage) scheme, piped water supply scheme, and regional water supply scheme. In Sirohi, where groundwater is saline and has high fluoride content, PHED has also installed solar operated De-fluoridation Units (DFUs) and Desalination (RO) plants. In Barmer, in saline groundwater areas, RO plants have been commissioned by Cairns Energy (in partnership mode with PHED) as a part of their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) outreach. In the areas having a fresh groundwater lens, open wells are still supplying water to villages. In Sirohi District, hand pumps tapping shallow aquifers are the major source of rural water supply. As per the latest report by PHED Sirohi (September 2018), the district has about 9192 hand pumps (including those installed by other departments) in the rural areas. Also, all the 992 rural habitations (470 villages and 522 hamlets) are covered by public water supply schemes. Of these, 83 are covered by groundwater-based regional water supply schemes, 43 by groundwater-based piped water supply schemes, 121 by the groundwater-based pump and tank schemes, 193 by hand pump schemes, and remaining 30 villages by other schemes. Additionally, 55 open wells have been constructed by PHED under the state water conservation programme. However, only 146 habitations (15% of the total) are ‘fully

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covered’8 by water supply from these schemes. Further, 132 habitations are affected by poor water quality, out of which 115 habitations have high fluoride content in groundwater and 17 others have high salinity in the groundwater supplied to them. In Sirohi District, PHED has also installed 74 RO plants (between 2015 and 2017) which are maintained and operated by private agencies. These plants charge Indian National Rupee (INR)9 5 for 20 litres of water. During the same period, 305 solar operated DFUs were also installed. Each such unit caters to about 700 people and they are also maintained and operated by the private agency. However, villagers are not charged for the water. In the case of Barmer District, PHED report highlights (30 August 2018) that there are a total of 8615 water sources in rural areas that were built under different government schemes. These include 1502 tube wells (and bore wells), 821 open wells, 174 solar-powered single-phase tube wells, and 6118 hand pumps. Additionally, some 1.5 lac Tankas were constructed under the employment guarantee scheme (between 2007 and 2018) and 17,835 (with a total capacity of about 110 Million Cubic feet) new water storage structures (about 89% are Tankas) were constructed in three phases under state water conservation programme. Each Tanka constructed under the latter can store 30,000–50,000 litres of water, and the cost per litre of water storage is about INR 3.5–4.25. Overall, the PHED office of Barmer has completed 715 schemes for the rural areas of the district which include 274 groundwater based regional schemes, 38 groundwater based piped water supply schemes, 343 groundwater-based pump and tank schemes, and 59 hand-pump-based schemes. These schemes cover 2326 villages (95% of the total) and 4495 hamlets (50% of the total). However, out of the total of 11,434 habitations (both villages and hamlets), a substantial proportion (about 82%) have poor-water quality local groundwater sources (mainly high salinity).

11.4.3 Districts’ Preparedness for Ensuring WASH Services during Climate-Induced Hazards In 2018, a year of meteorologicaldrought, PHED in Sirohi proposed ‘water supply rationing’ (water supply only once in 3 days) for urban areas that are mostly fed by surface water-based reservoirs. For rural areas, short-term plan was to identify private wells that give sufficient yield and use them for public rural water supply or dig new wells (if possible) which can yield water on a sustainable basis. The last resort for PHED was to use tanker water supply from some identified distant sources, and about INR 2.4 million for 2018–2019 were sanctioned for it. Though as a

8 A ‘Fully Covered’ means that the entire population in the habitation is providing with drinking water as per the existing water supply norms and guidelines. 9 As of March 2020, USD 1 equals to about INR 75.

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medium-term strategy ROs and DFUs are also installed, their reach is limited as the community has to travel to access treated water from these units. Moreover, since RO water is chargeable (though only at a nominal price), there is less interest in the village community to use it. Apart from the existing reservoirs that are earmarked for water supply to urban areas, one another surface-water-based medium reservoir is under construction mainly to supply water to rural areas, but a long-term vision for ensuring water security in rural areas of the district does not seem to exist. In the case of Barmer, ensuring water supply during drought year is more challenging as the population is scattered (more than 65% of them live in hamlets) and Tankas do not receive sufficient quantum of water to ensure water supply round the year. As a short-term measure during dry years, PHED identifies nearest available water sources. However as most of the groundwater is saline, PHED has no option but to supply water using tankers through its hydrant (water storages) or other private groundwater sources. As a medium-term strategy, PHED has partnered with Cairns Energy to set up RO plants, which would treat marginal quality groundwater which is available in plenty in the region in shallow and deep aquifers. However, most of the water from these plants is used by Cairns Energy itself or sold by the operators to water vendors. Further, the open wells that are being tapped for obtaining raw water for the RO plants are yielding water almost free from salinity, with TDS ranging from 800 to 900 ppm, which is below the permissible limits set by the Bureau of Indian Standards. Then it is not a surprise that villagers are not interested in obtaining treated water at a price as the open well scheme itself is supplying good-quality water, and as a result, the plant operators have to sell the treated water mainly to water vendors. Nevertheless, as a long-term measure for addressing the problem of water scarcity especially during dry years and the fact that most of the groundwater in large areas of the district is highly saline, PHED has planned four regional surface water supply schemes for the benefit of the rural areas in the district. Two schemes are based on direct water transfer from the Indira Gandhi Nahar Project (IGNP). Out of this, first one is Barmer Lift Water Supply Project (BLWSP) having a sanctioned budget of about INR 22 billion, which is expected to benefit 670 villages in Barmer and the second one is Pokaran Falsoond Balotra Siwana (PFBS) Project having a sanctioned amount of about INR 14.5 billion, which is expected to benefit 386 villages in Barmer. The third regional water supply scheme is based on Narmada Main Canal (NMC), with a sanctioned amount of INR 22.5 billion. This scheme is expected to benefit 843 villages in total. The fourth one is based on the Umed Sagar reservoir in Jodhpur (which itself receives water from IGNP) with a sanctioned budget of about INR 5.8 billion. This scheme is expected to benefit 180 villages. These schemes will be developed in four phases: the first phase will be to lay the main water supply line; the second phase will be to connect villages with the main water supply system, using distribution lines; the third phase will connect individual hamlets within the villages to the water supply system; and in the fourth phase, individual household water connections will be given. As of June 2019, the sanctioned budget was for the first

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and second phase only which is in various stages of implementation (0–100%). The designed supply will be 55 litres per capita per day (lpcd). As per the PHED progress report (dated 1 December 2018), about 950 villages in Barmer District are already receiving water from the four regional water supply schemes.

11.5

Gaps in the Existing Strategies for Delivering Climate-Resilient WASH Services in the Selected Districts

11.5.1 Institutional The state government has come up with action plans for relief and rehabilitation for droughts and floods, two major climate-induced hazards in the state. The role to be played by each concerned line department in the event of a disaster is well laid out. They range from technical sectoral departments (like WRD, PWD, PHED, GWD, agricultural department, and animal husbandry department) to home, civil defence, transportation, and telecom departments. Policies are also in place for involving UN agencies and NGOs in relief and rehabilitation operations. The institutional mechanism for facilitating coordination of the work of various line departments at the district level also exists, with disaster control rooms. However, disaster management plans are only useful for reducing post-disaster damages but are insufficient for reducing disaster risk, which needs efforts to reduce the hazards, exposure and vulnerability and build capabilities among stakeholders. In the case of droughts, the focus is on drought relief and not ‘droughts mitigation’ or ‘drought-proofing’. For ‘drought-proofing’ of WASH, reliable sources of adequate quantum of water should be made available for meeting all water needs in the domestic sector so that drought does not induce any stress on the socio-economic systems that WASH support. In the case of floods, the institutional capacity needs to be enhanced to design reservoirs that can handle floods of large return periods and design sound ‘operation rule’. This is especially important for western Rajasthan as a sufficient amount of historical data on river flows do not exist. As per the consultations with the PHED technical staff in Sirohi and Barmer in terms of institutional strengthening and capacity building, training on design, operation, and maintenance of desalination systems (for cost-effectiveness and sustainability), and operation and maintenance of large drinking water schemes (like those being executed) appear to be two major priority areas. One major concern for the future could be the leakages in the long water transmission pipes and the breaking of pipes and illegal tapping of water.

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11.5.2 Technical There are no plans to insulate water supply systems that heavily depend on local water resources to maintain the supplies in the event of droughts causing drastic reductions in water availability. Often, artificial recharge works are proposed to augment or strengthen the drinking water sources during droughts. Since the catchments of such schemes hardly receive any runoff during drought years, given the hydrological regime of the region, such schemes are also ineffective. Water harvesting systems being promoted at the community and household level (such as Tankas) as alternative sources of drinking water supplies are least effective during droughts (Kumar 2004; Kumar 2009). Hence the community becomes vulnerable to disruptions in the water supply. As regards floods, often drainage or sewerage systems are either in despair or lacking. Long-term plan needs to be evolved to rehabilitate and reconstruct infrastructural systems to mitigate flood disasters. Nevertheless, desalination is emerging as a major drinking water supply option for rural areas of Sirohi and Barmer Districts (and other saline groundwater areas) as a medium-term solution, until the large-scale drinking water supply project based on local surface water sources (in Sirohi) and imported surface water from IGNP and Narmada (in Barmer) become fully operational at the level of hamlets. However, since the objective of the large-scale drinking water supply project based on local surface water sources and regional water import seems to be to reach every household, this might have a time frame of at least 10–15 years given the current slow progress. In Barmer District, there is a need and also scope for blending the expensive water being imported with the marginal quality groundwater available in plenty in the local areas, to reduce the pressure on the former. Depending on the salinity of groundwater, the proportion can be decided keeping in view the fact that up to 500 ppm TDS is desirable for drinking water supply. Once all the villages are covered by the pipeline scheme, the amount of water required for meeting the needs would be quite substantial. Similarly, in areas where the open wells are also used for drinking water supply, water from desalination plants can be blended with the open well water which generally has low TDS due to high percolation of stream runoff. However, the chances of hitting a freshwater lens would be high in places that have ephemeral streams. Currently, about 9362 million cubic metre (MCM) of surplus water from the Sutlej River is allocated to Rajasthan through IGNP. Of this, the total allocation for drinking, industrial use, and energy production is around 1073 MCM per annum and the rest is for irrigation in the IGNP command area. Also, around 300 MCM of water is allocated from the SSP to the state through NMC, including that for irrigation. In lieu of the fact that the amount of water to be allocated from Luni and Banas Rivers and IGNP and Narmada canals for drinking is likely to increase substantially in near future, there is need to have a look at the inter-sectoral water allocation plan of

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Rajasthan government with regard to surface reservoirs and imported water from IGNP and Narmada Main Canal. Plans also need to be worked for integrating the village-based water supply sources (such as open wells tapping underground freshwater, water supplied by RO plants and DFUs) so as to reduce the pressure on the regional water supply schemes tapping imported water.

11.6

Action Plans to Improve the Climate Resilience of WASH in Two Arid Districts

11.6.1 Important Factors Influencing Climate-Induced WASH Risk The factors discussed in Sect. 11.3 play an important role in deciding on the types of interventions for improving the climate resilience of the two districts. The discussed factors are such that they determine the technical feasibility and economic viability of the interventions. For instance, high rainfall and hilly and rocky terrain (as in Sirohi) makes an area suitable for surface water harnessing in small and large dams. The absence of reliable groundwater in such areas makes the former the only viable option. The availability of flat barren land and extremely low population density (as in Barmer) provide an ideal condition for constructing Tankas for rainwater harvesting. The presence of a dependable source of large quantum of freshwater through already-existing perennial canals makes the ideal condition for building regional water supply schemes. Flat and arid regions with scattered habitations and low population density (having desert-like conditions as in Barmer) with no freshwater or very limited surface water available only seasonally, but having the presence of abundant saline groundwater creates the ideal condition for building decentralized desalination systems for ensuring drinking water supply throughout the year. That said, the spatial variations in these attributes are very important. Frequent floods make building elevated toilets that are ‘flood-proofed’ economically viable. In areas where a small fraction of the households have access to individual HH water supply connections and toilets, providing HH tap water connections will improve climate-resilience of WASH by reducing the community’s exposure to contaminated water and increasing the incentive to use newly built toilets.

11.6.2 Suggested Technical Measures The technical measures are suggested to strengthen the existing measures (as discussed in Sect. 11.4.3) that are implemented in Barmer and Sirohi Districts.

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In Barmer, the priority should be to ensure domestic water security through the regional water supply schemes based on IGNP and NMC and water transfer through pipelines to villages and hamlets (with intermediate storage facilities) in areas facing excessive salinity and fluoride concentration in groundwater. These are the areas where the cost of transporting water is less than that of locally feasible solutions such as desalination and de-fluoridation, combined with systems for distribution of water within the villages/hamlets. In the short and medium terms, desalination and de-fluoridation systems need to be continued in areas with largely contaminated groundwater and where the cost of transporting water is excessively high, with the blending of water from shallow phreatic aquifers (that has salinity within permissible limits), especially those underlying riverbed. Further, Tankas for runoff harvesting should be promoted in isolated hamlets with a very small population of fewer than 50 people. In order to ensure water supply during summers, surplus monsoon runoff (that otherwise is lost to salt sinks) from the large ephemeral streams can be diverted and stored in the freshwater aquifers. And, this can be tapped using tube wells. As a long-term strategy, the efforts should be on increasing the proportion of the HHs having water connections within the dwelling premise and on providing water connections in the toilets. In the case of Sirohi District, conjunctive use of water from the local groundwater in the hard rock areas in the rainy and winter season and the regional water supply scheme based on surface reservoirs (during summer) needs to be adopted. Further, priority should be given for the regional water supply scheme (that is based on a newly proposed medium reservoir in the district) in areas that experience excessive fluoride in groundwater and where the cost of treating and transporting water is less than that of locally feasible alternatives (such as a de-fluoridation plant), combined with systems for distribution of water within the villages/hamlets. Further, small dams and reservoirs can be constructed in the hilly and mountainous areas with relatively high rainfall with gravity-based piped water supply schemes for the neighbouring villages in the foothills. In the short and medium terms, decentralized de-fluoridation systems should continue in areas affected by the severe problems of groundwater quality (TDS and fluoride) and where the cost of transporting water from regional sources is excessively high. As is suggested for Barmer, the long-term strategy should be on increasing the proportion of the HHs having water connections within the dwelling premise and on providing water connections in the toilets. Block-specific technical interventions for both Barmer and Sirohi Districts are presented in Table 11.3.

11.6.3 Suggested Institutional Measures To address the gaps in the institutional response to WASH services during climate extremes (discussed in Sect. 11.5.1), capacity building measures and institutional strengthening are required in both the districts. Traditionally, the technical staff of the water supply department was concerned with the drilling of wells and hand

Alluvial

509

269

370

413

329

Sindhari

Baitu

Chohtan

Siwana

Barmer

Hard rock

Alluvial

Alluvial

Alluvial

Undulating

Sedimentary

Undulating

Undulating

Undulating

Undulating

Undulating

Topography

Geology

Average annual Name of the rainfall (mm) Block District Barmer Sheo 301

Attributes (only selected ones) Physical

Once in 11 years

Once in 6 years

Once in 4 years Once in 11 years

Once in 5 years Once in 14 years

Drought proneness

Once in 43 years

Once in 11 years

Once in 26 years Once in 22 years

Once in 22 years Once in 29 years

Flood occurrence

Saline

Saline

Saline

Saline

Saline

Saline

Ground water Quality

87

99

74

60

68

26

Population per square kilometres

1

3

2

2

1

1

Dominant Water Supply Systema

Socio-economic

Table 11.3 Block-specific suggested interventions for climate-resilient water supply infrastructure in Barmer and Sirohi

Low

Medium

Low

Low

Low

Low

HHs with access to WS in Dwellingb

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

HH having access to toiletsc

Canal based regional water scheme (RWS) from IGNP water + tanka, intermediate storage tank (IST); individual HH tap connection + blending canal water from desalinated water (RO) Desalinated groundwater (RO) + blending with shallow groundwater and supplied through pipes + individual HH connection + Tanka Desalinated groundwater (RO) + future RWS based on IGNP canal; piped water supply with individual HH connections Canal based RWS from IGNP water & IST; individual HH tap connection + blending canal water with desalinated groundwater (RO)

Water Supply Intervention for Improving Climate Resilience of the block

Alluvial

Sedimentary

District Sirohi Sirohi 547

919

582

520

661

Abu road

Pindwara

Sheoganj

Reodhar

Undulating

Undulating

Hilly

Hilly

Plain

Undulating

Undulating

Once in 6 years Once in 7 years

Once in 6 years Once in 9 years

Once in 6 years

Once in 14 years Once in 5 years

Once in 36 years Once in 12 years

Once in 18 years Once in 11 years

Once in 18 years

Once in 29 years Once in 14 years

Fluoride

Saline

Fluoride

Fluoride

Fluoride

Saline

Saline

232

199

355

438

189

97

102

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

Medium

Medium

Low

Low

Medium

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Low

Defluoridation plant + piped water supply with individual HH connections Small dams + piped water supply with individual HH connections. Regional water supply based on the newly proposed large reservoir, with pipeline distribution to villages and individual HHs Desalinated groundwater (RO) + piped water supply Defluoridation plant + piped water supply

Desalinated groundwater (RO) + future RWS based on IGNP/ NMC + individual HH tap connection

a

Source: Based on Authors’ own analysis Dominant water supply: 1 ¼ Rural regional water supply scheme based on reservoir or canal; 2 ¼ Single village scheme based on tube well; and 3 ¼ Single village scheme based on bore well b HHs with access to water supply in dwelling premise: >2/3rd ¼ High; 2/to 1/4th ¼ Medium; 2/3rd ¼ High; 2/3rd to 1/4th ¼ Medium;