Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya (Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research) 303142493X, 9783031424939

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Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research

Blaise Humbert-Droz Juliane Dame Tashi Morup   Editors

Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya

Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research Series Editor Marcus Nüsser, South Asia Institute, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany Editorial Board Members Eckart Ehlers, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Harjit Singh, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India Hermann Kreutzmann, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany Kenneth Hewitt, Waterloo University, Waterloo, ON, Canada Urs Wiesmann, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland Sarah J. Halvorson, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA Daanish Mustafa, King’s College London, London, UK

The Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research series aims at fostering the discussion on the complex relationships between physical landscapes, natural resources, and their modification by human land use in various environments of Asia. It is widely acknowledged that human-environmental interactions become increasingly important in Area Studies and development research, taking into account regional differences as well as bio-physical, socio-economic and cultural particularities. The book series seeks to explore theoretic and conceptual reflection on dynamic human-environment systems applying advanced methodology and innovative research perspectives. The main themes of the series cover urban and rural landscapes in Asia. Examples include topics such as land and forest degradation, vulnerability and mitigation strategies, natural hazards and risk management concepts, environmental change, impact studies and consequences for local communities. The relevant themes of the series are mainly focused on geographical research perspectives of Area Studies, however there is scope for interdisciplinary contributions from various spheres within the natural sciences, social sciences and humanities. Key themes: Human-Environment Interaction - Asian regional studies Asian geography - Impact studies - Landscape - Society - Land use and land cover change - Natural resources Submit a proposal: Proposals for the series will be considered by the Series Editor and International Editorial Board. An initial author/editor questionnaire and instructions for authors can be obtained from the Publisher, Dr. Robert K. Doe ([email protected]).

Blaise Humbert-Droz • Juliane Dame Tashi Morup Editors

Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya

Editors Blaise Humbert-Droz Independent Researcher, Wildlife & Environment International Association for Ladakh Studies (IALS) Bangalore, India

Juliane Dame Department of Geography University of Bonn Bonn, Germany

Tashi Morup Ladakh Arts and Media (LAMO) International Association for Ladakh Studies (IALS) Leh, Ladakh, India

ISSN 1879-7180 ISSN 1879-7199 (electronic) Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research ISBN 978-3-031-42493-9 ISBN 978-3-031-42494-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42494-6 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover image: Nomads near Nanga Parbat, 1995. Copyright © Marcus Nüsser (used with permission) This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Paper in this product is recyclable.

Foreword

The importance of this book is clearer now than when it was first conceived. The Ladakhi landscape speaks of high geological drama. Over countless millennia, the Indus valley has been one of the boundary lines where the Indian tectonic plate crashes into Central Asia, thus creating the jagged mountains that we see today. These mountains are still growing millimetre by millimetre, and in geological concepts of time, this inter-continental collision represents a process of rapid change, albeit one that is scarcely discernible to human beings whose perceptions are conditioned by much shorter time frames. By contrast, the processes of economic, social and now climate change that we have witnessed in our lifetimes are all too apparent, and the outcomes are highly uncertain. Ladakh’s mountain location and its distinctive cultures make it a special place. The agricultural practices of the valleys and the nomadic lifestyle of the Changthang plateau are unfamiliar and even exotic to town-dwellers. Few outsiders have occasion to consider the conflicts between livestock management and nature conservation programmes that are designed to protect snow leopards. Many of us take the excitement of tourism for granted without considering its social impacts. However, we are now much more aware of the common threads that bind us all. Changes in the ice formation of Ladakh’s mountain glaciers require minute local observation but are part of a global pattern. Ladakh is worth studying for its own sake and as a case study of planetary change. This book is the product of careful scientific research into rainfall patterns, botany, high-altitude fungus and snow geese. It is also a deeply human book whose papers place all these objects of study into their social context, assessing the implications for disaster management and future livelihoods in what remains a precarious mountain environment.

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Finally, the book represents the shared views of a community of researchers from different disciplines and backgrounds, both Ladakhi and international, who are united by a love of the region that they study. I was present when the core group of researchers first started planning the project over a glass of wine in Rome. I am delighted to welcome it into the world. President, International Association for Ladakh Studies, 2007–2015, Riveredge, Singapore

John Bray

Contents

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Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Blaise Humbert-Droz, Juliane Dame, and Tashi Morup

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Glaciers of Central Ladakh: Distribution, Changes and Relevance in the Indian Trans-Himalaya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Susanne Schmidt and Marcus Nüsser

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Floods and Debris Flows in Ladakh: Past History and Future Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John Bray, Robert J. Wasson, Pradeep Srivastava, and Alan D. Ziegler

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Impact of 2010 Leh Cloudburst: A Psychological Perspective . . . . . Nasrin Tabassum and Tasawoor Ahmad Kanth

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Traditional Mathematical Theories of Rainfall Prediction Through Lotho as Practised in Ladakh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dorjey Angchok

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The Contribution of Czech Researchers to the Botanical Survey of Ladakh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Miroslav Dvorský, Klára Řeháková, Jitka Klimešová, and Jiří Doležal

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The Adaptations of High-Altitude Mushrooms in the Cold Desert of Ladakh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Konchok Dorjey, Sanjeev Kumar, and Yash Pal Sharma

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A Brief Description of Sacred Trees (lhachang) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Nawang Tsering Shakspo

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Environmental Change in Ladakh’s Changthang: A Local, Regional and Global Phenomenon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 Blaise Humbert-Droz

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Wildlife Versus Livestock: Conservation Dilemma of the Pastoralists of Changthang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 Tashi Morup, Tsewang Namgail, and Tashi Tsering

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Harnessing Traditional Knowledge for Wildlife Conservation in the Ladakh Trans-Himalaya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Tsewang Namgail, Yash Veer Bhatnagar, and Joseph L. Fox

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Changing Production, Changing Consumption: Food System Transformation in Ladakh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175 Juliane Dame

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Eating Habits In and Around Leh Town . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Rinchen Dolma

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Seeds of Change: A Review of Agricultural Developments in Central Zangskar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 J. Seb Mankelow

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Influences of Tourism, Indian Administration and Army on Community Identity Processes in Padum (Zangskar) . . . . . . . . . 225 Salomé Deboos

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“We Are Puppets in the Hands of Nature”: Road Construction and the Transformation of People-Environment Relationships in Ladakh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 Jonathan Demenge

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Trade-off Between Continuity and Change in Leh District: An Emergy Evaluation in Time Series: 1999–2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255 Vladimiro Pelliciardi and Federico Maria Pulselli

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277

Contributors

Dorjey Angchok Defence Institute of High-Altitude Research (DIHAR), Leh, Ladakh, India Yash Veer Bhatnagar IUCN-India Country Office, New Delhi, India John Bray International Association for Ladakh Studies, Riveredge, Singapore Juliane Dame Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany Salomé Deboos UFR Anthropologie Sociologie et Science Politiques, Université Lumière Lyon 2, Lyon, France Jonathan Demenge Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, New Delhi, India Jiří Doležal Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň, Czech Republic Department of Botany, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice, Czech Republic Rinchen Dolma Ladakh Information Department, Leh, Ladakh, India Konchok Dorjey Department of Botany, Eliezer Joldan Memorial College, Leh, Ladakh, India Miroslav Dvorský Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň, Czech Republic Joseph L. Fox Natural & Environmental Sciences Department, Western State Colorado University, Gunnison, CO, USA Blaise Humbert-Droz Independent Researcher, Wildlife & Environment, International Association for Ladakh Studies (IALS), Bangalore, India Tasawoor Ahmad Kanth University of Kashmir, Srinagar, India

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Jitka Klimešová Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň, Czech Republic Sanjeev Kumar Higher Secondary School, Bhadarwah, Jammu and Kashmir, India J. Seb Mankelow Independent Researcher, Richmond, UK Tashi Morup Ladakh Arts and Media (LAMO), International Association for Ladakh Studies (IALS), Leh, Ladakh, India Tsewang Namgail Snow Leopard Conservancy India Trust, Leh, Ladakh, India Marcus Nüsser South Asia Institute (SAI), Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany Heidelberg Center for the Environment (HCE), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany Vladimiro Pelliciardi European Centre of Sustainable Development, Rome, Italy Federico Maria Pulselli Department of Physical, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Siena, Siena, Italy Klára Řeháková Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň, Czech Republic Susanne Schmidt South Asia Institute (SAI), Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany Nawang Tsering Shakspo Centre for Research on Ladakh, Sabu, Leh, Ladakh, India Yash Pal Sharma Department of Botany, University of Jammu, Jammu, Jammu and Kashmir, India Pradeep Srivastava Department of Earth Sciences, IIT, Roorkee, India Nasrin Tabassum Department of Geography, Eliezer Joldan Memorial College, Leh, Ladakh, India Tashi Tsering Mount Royal University, Calgary, Canada Robert J. Wasson James Cook University, Townsville, Australia Australian National University, Canberra, Australia Alan D. Ziegler Faculty of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Mae Jo University, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Chapter 1

Introduction Blaise Humbert-Droz, Juliane Dame, and Tashi Morup

Abstract In recent decades, the high mountain region Ladakh bordering China and Pakistan in North-West India has undergone important changes owing to its geo-strategic importance, rapidly improving road and air connectivity and the effects of climate change. The 16 research papers and essays of this book, gathered in the framework of the International Association for Ladakh Studies, document these momentous changes and examine their impact on the natural resource base, land use, socio-economics as well as the identity of Ladakhi communities. These findings are of global interest and can inform ongoing debates on sustainable mountain development. The book also highlights some of the main development challenges faced by Ladakh and, based on new opportunities opening up in the fields of conservation, renewable energy, organic farming and community-based tourism, provides some perspectives for a resilient and sustainable Ladakh in the twenty-first century. Keywords Climate change · Cryosphere change · Extreme flood events · Biotic changes · Biodiversity protection · Food systems · Tourism pressure · Roads’ impact In recent decades, the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh (Fig. 1.1) has witnessed tremendous change linked to its enhanced strategic importance, the rapid development of new means of communication with other parts of India, and the effects of a warming climate. From melting glaciers and more frequent extreme weather events B. Humbert-Droz (✉) Independent Researcher, Wildlife & Environment, International Association for Ladakh Studies (IALS), Bangalore, India e-mail: [email protected] J. Dame Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany T. Morup Ladakh Arts and Media (LAMO), International Association for Ladakh Studies (IALS), Leh, Ladakh, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 B. Humbert-Droz et al. (eds.), Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya, Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42494-6_1

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Fig. 1.1 The arid Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. (Draft & Cartography: Susanne Schmidt, Nils Harm)

to the rapid increase in food imports and an exponential growth of infrastructure, tourism and military activities, these momentous developments present Ladakh with numerous environmental and social challenges as also economic opportunities. This book documents these changes and examines their impact on the natural environment and traditional land use as well as the livelihoods and identities of Ladakhi communities. The book also evaluates the likely direction of future change, identifies further environmental challenges expected in the twenty-first century and provides some perspectives on the wise use of natural resources and sustainable development. The idea of an International Association for Ladakh Studies (IALS) publication on environmental change began to take shape at the association’s 13th colloquium held in Rome in 2007, during which several presentations were made on the theme.

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Since then, research on environmental change has developed further, leading to the eventual selection of 16 papers addressing major environmental issues facing Ladakh. In spite of the length of the period covered and the now historic nature of some of the research, all papers – including the earlier ones, which have been updated – are entirely valid today, as they depict key aspects of the Ladakh environment and changes that are ongoing or may indeed be accelerating. Among the main drivers of recent environmental change, the warming climate is one of the most potent, affecting ecosystems at global, regional and local levels. Prominent among its impacts as highlighted in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2021) are an increase in cryosphere change including glacial melt (Rounce et al. 2023) and in the frequency of extreme weather events, both of which have been experienced in Ladakh in recent decades (Kamp et al. 2011; Schmidt and Nüsser 2012, 2017; Bhambri et al. 2013; Soheb et al. 2020, 2022; Chevuturi et al. 2018; Dimri et al. 2017). While almost all the world’s glaciers have been retreating synchronously since the 1950s (IPCC 2021), their shrinkage in Ladakh may not be as pronounced as in other mountain areas, including other parts of the Himalayan arc. Susanne Schmidt and Marcus Nüsser, who document these changes in Central and Eastern Ladakh in Chap. 2, note, however, that even relatively small decreases in glaciers’ length and volume may have crucial impacts on irrigated crop cultivation, and therefore for the sustainability of current land use and local livelihoods (Nüsser et al. 2012). Increased meltwater scarcity at critical periods due to cryosphere changes have in turn helped promote the development of adaptative strategies, including the creation of so-called artificial glaciers to increase irrigation potential (Clouse 2017; Nüsser et al. 2019a, b; Rasul et al. 2020; Wagle et al. 2021). The glaciers’ retreat also results in an increase in the number and size of glacial lakes (Schmidt et al. 2020), hence a higher risk of glacial lake outburst floods with potentially destructive consequences. As described in the chapter, the latest of these partly blocked the Indus River in August 2021. An increase in heavy precipitation events associated with climate warming has been observed globally over most land areas since the 1950s, and this pattern is projected to intensify further, especially at high latitudes and in monsoon regions including the North-Western part of the Indian subcontinent and the Trans-Himalaya (IPCC 2021). Such precipitations, when concentrated over a short period of time, can lead to catastrophic floods and debris flows, especially in arid and high-relief areas such as Ladakh where the sparse vegetation offers little protection from erosion (Chevuturi et al. 2018; Dimri et al. 2017). John Bray et al. (Chap. 3) describe the dramatic debris flow that struck the Leh region in August 2010, unprecedented in its destruction of life and property, and situate it in the context of climatic changes and of a chronology of extreme flood events over recent geological and historical time. Since such events are almost certain to occur again, and perhaps intensify, the authors stress the importance of robust risk reduction strategies that increase preparedness through cooperation between all stakeholders, as well as a need for more intense monitoring and research, and well-planned response measures. This should also include the provision of adequate psycho-social support, which a study by Nasrin Tabassum and Tasawoor Kanth (Chap. 4) found to be largely lacking in Leh.

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More than 500 people belonging mainly to the lower strata of society required psychiatric help in the aftermath of the 2010 disaster. The warming climate in turn affects different aspects of the land biosphere, the fauna and flora (Rana et al. 2019), including agricultural crop production. A case in point is the impact of climate change on the timing of agricultural operations, for which farmers in Ladakh traditionally rely on the calculations of astrologers drawing on ancient Tibetan astro-science, as described by Dorjey Anchuk (Chap. 5). Globally, climate zones are shifting poleward – as well as upward in mountain areas – and, in the northern hemisphere, the growing season has on average lengthened by up to two days per decade since the 1950s (IPCC 2021). Czech botanist Miroslav Dvorský and his colleagues (Chap. 6) report upward plant migration of up to 180 m – one species reaching 6150 m, a world record – and a significant lengthening of the growing season in some plant communities in the sub-nival zone of Eastern Ladakh. Their studies of the distribution and ecology of Ladakh plant communities were initiated by Leoš Klimeš, a pioneer of modern botanical studies in the region. Klimeš greatly enriched the scientific knowledge of Ladakh flora, documenting some 300 new species in the region, several of them new to science, before he sadly disappeared in the course of his studies in Zangskar in 2007. In addition to an extension of the vegetation period, a warmer climate may also have some positive effects on other types of organisms at least in the TransHimalaya. Konchok Dorjey et al. (Chap. 7) document as many as twenty-five species of high-altitude mushroom, well-adapted to Ladakh’s forbidding ecological conditions, a surprising diversity for such an extreme environment that may also be linked to the emergence of warmer and wetter conditions in recent decades. A few bird species also seem to have benefitted from milder conditions, becoming able to visit or even to breed in Ladakh in summer. Blaise Humbert-Droz (Chap. 9) shows, however, that most waterbird species breeding in high-altitude wetlands have suffered big drops in population in years of severe floods and drought over the past 25 years, from which they have generally failed to recover. Moreover, in spite of wide fluctuations from year to year, declining population trends, including possible extinctions, which are also reported in other categories of wild fauna and flora, are discernible throughout this period, indicating that other important drivers of environmental change are at play. Prominent among these are recent changes in traditional land use and a fast pace of development linked in particular to increasing tourism and military activities in the region (Dame and Nüsser 2008; van Beek and Pirie 2008; Humbert-Droz 2017). Due to high demand from the cashmere and meat markets, the rapid growth until about 2005 of the pashmina goat and sheep population in Ladakh pasturelands has led to overstocking and habitat deterioration, adversely affecting the rich diversity of wildlife, including several species that are threatened globally. Government efforts to protect this unique biodiversity through the establishment of a vast wildlife sanctuary in the Changthang plateau of Eastern Ladakh have met with the sustained opposition of local inhabitants, who were not consulted initially and fear losing access to traditional pastures as well as to benefits from the recently booming tourist industry. Tashi Morup et al. (Chap. 10) analyse how these land-use changes and new

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livelihood opportunities coupled with growing military activities and disturbances from the tourist industry are imperilling the age-old coexistence between wildlife and pastoralists in the region, exacerbating conflicts with conservation efforts. However, real opportunities exist to mitigate these conflicts, the authors suggest, by promoting direct public participation, including employment benefits, in the sanctuary activities and focusing protection efforts on key biodiversity hotspots rather than on a huge Changthang Protected Area, which is difficult to guard, while much of it is of no significant value for wildlife. Another major way to enhance biodiversity protection is to promote traditional practices that directly or indirectly benefit wildlife. Tsewang Namgail et al. (Chap. 11) describe indigenous management practices, such as rotational grazing and levying grazing fees, that have helped limit pressure on pastureland and contributed to the coexistence of livestock with sizeable populations of large herbivores, including the globally-threatened Argali or Great Tibetan Sheep, in a wildlife reserve in south central Ladakh. Such ingenious practices should be recognized and, the authors argue, could be harnessed to upgrade present-day livestock management in a manner that benefits conservation. Equally worthy of integration in current conservation approaches are traditional eco-religious practices that directly protect nature such as the preservation of sacred groves. The veneration of ‘sacred trees’ (lha chang) and the ritual protection of water sources are common religious practices in Ladakh, and their historical, cultural and ecological significance for environmental protection is highlighted by Nawang Tsering Shakspo (Chap. 8). Recent changes in land use also directly affect agriculture, and hence food production as well as food security and consumption (Dame and Nüsser 2011; Dame 2018; Rasul et al. 2019). Juliane Dame (Chap. 12) shows how these changes coupled with new income opportunities, especially with tourism and the army, as well as development programmes and subsidies are transforming Ladakh’s food system, leading to modifications in local livelihoods and diet, including improvements in food security and nutrition. Along with a shift from subsistence agriculture based on a few traditional food grains, vegetables and fruit to a more diversified food production including cash crops, food preferences and marketing have rapidly evolved to include a greater variety of locally produced food as well as imported rice – now a staple in Ladakh, wheat flour and a variety of processed food and spices. With a focus on Leh town, Rinchen Dolma (Chap. 13) examines the impact of these changing eating habits on the food culture and health of Ladakhis, especially young people, and argues for a better balance between traditional food consumption and more recent dietary preferences. The construction of roads in areas that were previously difficult to access is another powerful agent of change (Murton 2017), greatly facilitating external influences and affecting key aspects of life in local communities, ranging from their agricultural practices and income opportunities to their sense of community identity and perceptions of their own environment. The partially-enclosed Zangskar valley is a case in point. The creation of a road network that will ultimately link the region to commercial hubs in the Indus Valley and the Punjab throughout the year marks a watershed in the region’s development from a former subsistence agriculture to the

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wider use of subsidised agricultural technologies, greater reliance on imported food and new options for off-farm livelihoods. Documenting the impacts of these changes on farming practices across central Zangskar, Seb Mankelow (Chap. 14) also examines how they affect the local communities. The outcomes range from greater food security arising from imports and non-farm incomes to greater wealth disparities and competition between farming estates as well as a marked decline in selfsufficiency, which was a key component of traditional Zangskari identity. Roads and the new avenues they open not just for agriculture but also for trade, administrative and infrastructural development, tourism and defence can have powerful impacts on social cohesion as well as the cultural and religious identity of local communities (Bhan et al. 2023). In a global context of increasing polarisation on ethnic and religious lines, Ladakh and especially Zangskar stand out as examples of overall peaceful co-existence between world religions, Buddhism and Islam in particular. In Padum, Zangskar’s administrative capital, Salomé Deboos (Chap. 15), shows, however, how such coexistence, still largely prevalent, has come under increasing pressure, especially from the tourism industry and the military, leading to a lessening of joint community spirit, with local people increasingly defining themselves primarily by their religion rather than their place of origin: they are Buddhists or Muslims from Padum rather than Buddhist or Muslim Padumpa (people from Padum). In addition to the physical changes that they bring about, roads also modify the way that people perceive, know and transform the landscape. Applying powerful tools from the field of political ecology (Perrault et al. 2015) to a series of events that took place during the Nyemo to Padum road construction, Jonathan Demenge (Chap. 16) illustrates how differing perceptions of the landscape, on the part of construction workers, engineers and local people as well as the tasks they perform, can determine different transformations of the environment, for example in the siting of a road. The author further shows how, by modifying mobility patterns, roads determine which parts of the landscape are used and known and which parts may “slip off the map” and become unknown. Infrastructure development, governmental programmes, more intensive agriculture and pasture use coupled with growing goods and energy imports, booming tourism and a heightened military presence, all provide fresh opportunities for Ladakh’s socio-economic development but, at the same time, prove to be a major challenge for the sustainable use of Ladakh’s scarce natural resources. Using an environmental accounting methodology, so-called emergy, to quantify the flows of local and imported resources supporting human activities over a 12-year period (1999–2011), Vladimiro Pelliciardi and Federico Pulselli (Chap. 17) find that Ladakh’s natural capital – both renewable and non-renewable – has not been systematically depleted. However, like other parts of India and the world before it, Ladakh, in this case study the Leh District, is gradually moving away from sustainable conditions. The authors therefore suggest a long-term development scenario that better balances the use of local versus imported resources. Rather than simply fulfilling immediate needs, this approach would gradually build up a stock of non-renewable assets, thus enabling Ladakh to continue being supported in the future by flows of non-renewable resources and by an augmented quantity of renewables.

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Underlining the urgent need to adopt more durable modes of development as advocated by these authors, trends towards less sustainable conditions have intensified since their research concluded in 2011. Pressure on natural resources and adverse environmental conditions such as habitat degradation, erosion of biodiversity and pollution, appear to have increased significantly, linked in particular to tourism’s exponential growth and an intensification of military activities due to heightened border tensions in the past decade (Chaps. 9 and 10). Glacial melt water, which is of critical importance for irrigated crop production in Ladakh semi-desert, was regarded as a renewable resource in Pelliciardi and Pulselli’s original study. However, these authors hypothesized – and this introduction as well as Chap. 2 confirm – that it may now be considered as a diminishing stock due to climate change and glacial retreat, further constraining the territory’s longterm agricultural sustainability. Thanks to the external supply chain, as Seb Mankelow (personal communication. July 2021) points out, Ladakh has been able to overcome many limiting factors, far exceeding the constraints that would otherwise be imposed. However, relying primarily on external supplies of essential commodities, energy or livelihood sources such as tourism would appear imprudent since such supplies can be disrupted for extended periods, not just in Ladakh but globally too, as the Covid 19 crisis and its aftermath so clearly show (see also Rasul 2021). As chapters in this book indicate, Ladakh, in spite of extreme agro-climatic conditions and rapidly increasing anthropogenic pressure, is still endowed with remarkable biological diversity and a limited, diminishing, but not systematically depleted stock of natural resources, which are the legacy of the traditionally frugal lifestyle of its people (Humbert-Droz and Dawa 2004). There is thus an urgent need to protect, nurture and sustainably use this precious natural capital, counterbalancing the growing reliance on external inputs and incomes. Several suggestions to this effect are made in the book. These include ensuring the direct participation of local communities in development initiatives as well as harnessing their long-established practices in environmental protection. At the same time, it is essential to involve key ‘external’ and high-impact actors such as the tourism industry and the military in conservation efforts. Simultaneously, it is important to encourage a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energies and the use of local material for construction, as well as promoting sustainable food systems, including local crops and diets. New perspectives are also opening up. The observed decline in livestock numbers throughout Ladakh (Chaps. 9, 10, and 14) may be beneficial for grasslands and wildlife, provided that local pastoralists maintain their rights over pasturelands, and there is no further increase in tourism and military pressure. This could be facilitated by using India’s Forest Rights Act, a law that was not applicable to J&K including Ladakh prior to their declaration as Union Territories (see Ministry of Tribal Affairs 2006). As is happening in some other parts of the world plagued with ‘over-tourism’, the recent public health and economic crisis may also be an opportunity for the tourism industry and the authorities to rethink their development models on greener and more sustainable lines, rather than going for ever higher numbers and impacts (Chap. 9). On the defence front, with the direct confrontation and tensions witnessed

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in 2020 along the Line of Actual Control subsiding, the environmental impact of military presence, currently at an all-time high, may gradually decline if de-escalation continues (Pandit 2020). The climate crisis and India’s ambitious pledge at the COP26 to reach net zero greenhouse gas emission by 2070 with renewable energy providing half of the nation’s power-generating capacity as early as 2030 (Vaidyanathan 2021; Padma 2023), should give a definite boost to a much wider development of solar energy in particular, to which Ladakh, with its approximately 300 days of sunshine per year, can make a locally significant contribution. Such expansion is on the drawing board with a substantial Central Government’s allocation made in the 2023 budget for a 10 GW solar project over 20,000 acres in the Pang region of South-Eastern Ladakh, planned to be completed by 2026. The project, however, is raising concerns from nomadic herders, who fear losing access to grazing pastures in the area (Hindustan Times 2023). A further contribution to a carbon-neutral and sustainable Ladakh is expected to come from a recent and ambitious initiative of the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council, endorsed by the Central Government and a number of local NGOs, to convert over 240 villages of the territory to organic farming by 2025 (Reach Ladakh 2020; Kothari 2021; Chap. 12). While these developments and initiatives are promising, the huge environmental and human challenges facing Ladakh, as also the Himalayan region as a whole and the rest of the world in the twenty-first century cannot be underestimated. A definite move towards a resilient and sustainable Ladakh is thus an urgent priority, and this requires the direct and sustained involvement of all sectors of society. It is our hope that the present book and the research findings that it contains will contribute to this crucial combined effort.

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Hindustan Times (2023, 7 February) Ladakh’s mega solar power project delayed, to be ready by 2026. Hindustan Times. https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/chandigarh-news/ladakhsmega-solar-power-project-delayed-to-be-ready-by-2026-101675761954786.html Humbert-Droz B (2017) Impacts of tourism and military presence on wetlands and their avifauna in the Himalayas. In: Prins H, Namgail T (eds) Bird migration across the Himalayas: wetland functioning amidst mountains and glaciers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 342–358 Humbert-Droz B, Dawa S (eds) (2004) Biodiversity of Ladakh: strategy and action plan. Sampark, New Delhi IPCC (2021) Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: MassonDelmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, Péan C, Berger S, Caud N, Chen Y, Goldfarb L, Gomis MI, Huang M, Leitzell K, Lonnoy E, Matthews JBR, Maycock TK, Waterfield T, Yelekçi O, Yu R, Zhou B (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/New York. https:// doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896 Kamp U, Byrne M, Bolch T (2011) Glacier fluctuations between 1975 and 2008 in the greater Himalaya range of Zanskar, Southern Ladakh. J Mt Sci 8:374–389. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s11629-011-2007-9 Kothari A (2021, 13 October) A fully organic Ladakh? Towards food sovereignty on the roof of the world. Wall Street International Magazine. https://wsimag.com/economy-and-politics/67247-afully-organic-ladakh Ministry of Tribal Affairs (2006) Forest rights act: act, rules and guidelines. Ministry of Tribal Affairs, Government of India. https://tribal.nic.in/FRA/data/FRARulesBook.pdf Murton G (2017) Making mountain places into state spaces: infrastructure, consumption, and territorial practice in a Himalayan borderland. Ann Am Assoc Geogr 107(2):536–545. https:// doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1232616 Nüsser M, Schmidt S, Dame J (2012) Irrigation and development in the upper Indus Basin: characteristics and recent changes of a socio-hydrological system in Central Ladakh, India. Mt Res Dev 32(1):51–61. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00091.1 Nüsser M, Dame J, Kraus B, Baghel R, Schmidt S (2019a) Socio-hydrology of “artificial glaciers” in Ladakh, India: assessing adaptive strategies in a changing cryosphere. Reg Environ Chang 19:1327–1337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1372-0 Nüsser M, Dame J, Parveen S, Kraus B, Baghel R, Schmidt S, Kraus B, Baghel R, Schmidt S (2019b) Cryosphere-fed irrigation networks in the northwestern Himalaya: precarious livelihoods and adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change. Mt Res Dev 39(2):R1–R11. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-18-00072.1 Padma TV (2023) India pledges $4 billion for green energy to cut carbon emissions. Nature ISSN 1476-4687 (online). https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-00285-w Pandit MK (2020) The Himalaya should be a nature reserve: conservation could be part of the toolkit for diplomacy between China and India. Nature 583(9). https://www.nature.com/articles/ d41586-020-01809-4 Perrault T, Bridge G, McCarthy J (eds) (2015) The Routledge handbook of political ecology. Routledge, London/New York Rana SK, Price TD, Qian H (2019) Plant species richness across the Himalaya driven by evolutionary history and current climate. Ecosphere 10(11):e02945. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2. 2945 Rasul G (2021) A framework for addressing the twin challenges of COVID-19 and climate change for sustainable agriculture and food security in South Asia. Front Sustain Food Syst 5. https:// doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.679037 Rasul G, Saboor A, Tiwari PC, Hussain A, Ghosh N, Chettri GB (2019) Food and nutrition security in the Hindu Kush Himalaya: unique challenges and niche opportunities. In: Wester P, Mishra A, Mukherji A, Shrestha A (eds) The Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1_9

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Chapter 2

Glaciers of Central Ladakh: Distribution, Changes and Relevance in the Indian Trans-Himalaya Susanne Schmidt and Marcus Nüsser

Abstract Meltwater from the cryosphere determines the potential for irrigated crop cultivation in the Trans-Himalayan region of Central Ladakh. Frozen water sources include seasonal snow cover and relatively small glaciers (5200 m a.s.l.). Based on a glacier and glacial lake inventory for Central and Eastern Ladakh, this chapter presents a multi-temporal analysis of glacier changes in selected ranges and tributary valleys between 1969 and 2020. The study is based on diverse sets of remote sensing data (Corona, Landsat, and Sentinel), validated by several field campaigns carried out between 2007 and 2020. The glacier-covered area totalled 997 ± 99 km2 with more than 1800 glaciers in 2002. While regional glacier decrease is not as pronounced as in other parts of the Himalayan arc, changes of individual glaciers vary considerably between the different tributaries of the Upper Indus Basin in Ladakh. However, the consequences of even small glacier decrease may have critical impacts on the viability of irrigated crop cultivation. As the socio-hydrological system of irrigated agricultural production is entirely dependent on meltwater supply, glacier dynamics directly affect local livelihoods and sustainable land use of village communities. As a consequence of glacier retreat, proglacial lakes have formed and increased in size and volume during the observation period. A total of 126 glacial lakes (>0.005 km2) covering an area of 4.13 ± 0.48 km2 with an average size of 0.03 km2 can be identified in Central Ladakh. These lakes may cause glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) of varying magnitude, aggravating socio-hydrological risks for settlements, irrigated land use and infrastructure in the region. S. Schmidt (✉) South Asia Institute (SAI), Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany e-mail: [email protected] M. Nüsser South Asia Institute (SAI), Department of Geography, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany Heidelberg Center for the Environment (HCE), Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 B. Humbert-Droz et al. (eds.), Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya, Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42494-6_2

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Keywords Cryosphere · Glacier changes · Glacial lakes · Socio-hydrology · TransHimalaya · Ladakh

2.1

Introduction

Glacier decrease along the Himalayan arc has become a prominent research topic over the last two decades. Recent studies show a complex and spatially differentiated pattern of retreat, stability, and advance (Bolch et al. 2012, 2019; Nie et al. 2021). While the majority of glaciers in the central and eastern Himalaya are retreating at high rates, changes are less pronounced in the western Himalaya (Nüsser and Schmidt 2021; Romshoo et al. 2020) and in the adjoining Karakoram (Bhambri et al. 2013), where some glaciers have advanced since the 1990s, partly due to surging events (Hewitt 2005, 2014; Rankl et al. 2014; Frey et al. 2014; Bhambri et al. 2017) characterized by a sudden, sometimes up to tenfold increase in velocity causing overriding of ice margin areas (Bhambri et al. 2017). Abstraction of meltwater from the cryosphere is critical for the irrigation of agricultural fields and food security in the arid Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh (Labbal 2000; Dame and Nüsser 2011; Nüsser et al. 2012; Dame 2018). The complex system of water transfer by canals and water storage in reservoirs is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological changes in the upper catchments (Nüsser et al. 2019a, b). Even small hydro-climatic shifts have considerable impacts on water storage and runoff (Barnett et al. 2005). Especially in years with low summer precipitation, meltwater from the cryosphere becomes the vital water source for regional livelihoods (Thayyen and Gergan 2010). In the context of sustainable land use, questions regarding the velocity of glacier decrease and of the timing of ‘peak water’ (Huss and Hock 2018), the tipping point of melt water release and regional water availability, are becoming a greater concern. At the same time, as a result of glacier retreat, glacial lakes have increased in number and size leading to a higher risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) (Nie et al. 2021; Taylor et al. 2023). Due to the vital importance of the cryosphere for land use and livelihoods and the increasing risks of glacier-related hazards, recent studies have documented glacier changes (Kamp et al. 2011; Schmidt and Nüsser 2012, 2017; Bhambri et al. 2013; Soheb et al. 2020, 2022) and the development of glacial lakes in Ladakh (Schmidt et al. 2020). The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the regional distribution and topographical characteristics of glaciers and glacial lakes. Glacier changes are detected and analysed over a period of five decades using multi-temporal remote sensing data (Corona, Landsat and Sentinel-2) validated by several field campaigns carried out between 2007 and 2020. Uncertainties in glacier and glacial lake areas were estimated by half a pixel (Kamp et al. 2011). To investigate the glacier extent and changes since the nineteenth century, the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) (Chand et al. 2017; Orr et al. 2018), historical reports and maps were integrated as additional data sources.

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The study area is sandwiched between the Karakoram and Himalayan ranges and includes the mountain ranges of Ladakh and Pangong to the north of the Indus valley and the ranges of Stok, Rong, Kang Yatze, Korzok and Zangskar to the south of the Indus (Fig. 2.1). It covers an area of about 28,500 km2, ranging in elevation from about 2800 m a.s.l. (metres above sea level) in the lowest sections of the Indus and Shyok valleys to the highest peaks of about 6700 m a.s.l. in the Korzok and Pangong ranges along the lakes Tso Moriri and Pangong in Eastern Ladakh (Schmidt and Nüsser 2017). The adjoining glaciers in the main ranges of the Himalaya and Karakoram are not part of this assessment. The prevalent aridity of Ladakh is caused by the rain shadow effect of the orographic barriers of the Greater Himalayan and Karakoram ranges. The seasonal distribution of precipitation indicates that the dominant input of snow into the glacial system occurs in winter, but precipitation may fall as snow at higher altitudes throughout the year (Passang et al. 2022). The mean annual air temperatures amounted to 5.6 °C in Leh during the period 1951–1980 (India Meteorological Department 2015) with an increase in mean winter, spring and autumn temperatures over the last century and pronounced warming since the mid-1990s (Dolezal et al. 2016).

Fig. 2.1 Central Ladakh with delineation of separate mountain ranges as mapping units; Leh Valley taken from Stok Kangri (6040 m a.s.l.). (Map modified after Schmidt and Nüsser 2017, photo taken by Marcus Nüsser, 11 September 2013)

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2.2 2.2.1

Glacier Distribution in Central Ladakh Historical Reports

Unlike in other regions of the Himalaya and Karakoram (Bhambri and Bolch 2009; Chand et al. 2017; Parveen et al. 2015; Nüsser and Schmidt 2017, 2021), detailed historical reports and assessments of Trans-Himalayan glaciers in Ladakh are rare. The first Western reference dates back to the mid-nineteenth century. Alexander Cunningham, who visited the region in the years 1846 and 1847, temporarily accompanied by Thomas Thomson and Henry Strachey, wrote: “I have also omitted all notice of glaciers: not that I am unaware of their existence, but because I have seen so few of them that I nothing have to say of them which is worth recording” (Cunningham 1854, p. 79). Thomson, who gave a detailed description on the Karakoram glaciers, reported on the glaciers in the Ladakh range: The mountain range which separates these two rivers [Indus and Shyok] barely rises into the region of perpetual snow, a very few peaks only retaining any snow throughout the year. It is therefore crossed by passes at the head of each valley; but the pass nearest to Le having a small but very steep glacier on its northern face, is difficult and dangerous in autumn, after the snow has entirely melted from the surface of the ice (Thomson 1852, p. 188).

However, Thomson highlighted the enormous differences of glacier-covered slopes between north and south-facing aspects, as in the case of the Khardung La. He assumed, that the high elevation of the perennial snow-line and glaciers is caused by the low amount of snowfall which decreases to the east: There is therefore no very great mass of snow during the summer months to lower the temperature of the air, and consequently circumstances are the most favourable possible for the elevation of the snow-line to an extreme degree; a dry, stony, desert, treeless country, violent winds, clear sky, and powerful sun, being all combined (Thomson 1852, p. 488).

The three Schlagintweit brothers, who visited various Himalayan regions between 1854 and 1857, described the glaciological setting in Kumaon, Garhwal and Sikkim but also in the Western Himalaya (Nanga Parbat region) and Karakoram. However, it is noteworthy that they almost entirely neglected the glaciers of Central Ladakh. One exception is their description of the north-facing slope of the Khardung La, where they reported a middle-sized glacier with a glacial lake (Schlagintweit 1872). Fanny Bullock Workman and William Hunter Workman, who crossed Ladakh during their Karakoram expedition to the Siachen Glacier, described the same glacier as a snow field: “On the top [of the Khardung La], and for some distance down on the north side, lay a large snow-field. [. . .] On the way [down] two small lakes were passed, one of them, just below the snow-field” (Workmann and Workmann 1901, p. 24). This small glacier is also shown on a historical photograph taken by Rupert Wilmot almost 60 years later in 1931 (Bates and Harman 2014). In line with the predominant neglect of the study of glaciers in Ladakh, Sven Hedin (1909, 1910) did not map any glacier along the Ladakh Range. Contrary to these sketch maps, the

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Fig. 2.2 Panoramic view of Central Ladakh from Spituk monastery, as described by Dainelli about 90 years ago. (Photo: Susanne Schmidt, September 2009)

topographical maps from 18751 indicate small glaciers along the mountain ranges. However, the glacier on the north-side of the Khardung La is missing in this map. One other source from colonial times (Lambert 1877) presents some evidence for the importance of glaciers in the context of irrigated agriculture: The prevailing features of this country are bare rocky mountains [. . .] But what makes the barrenness more noticeable, is that every few miles one finds a patch of green, as bright as a bit of an English pasture, along a watercourse, springing probably from a glacier far away up in the stony hills above (Lambert 1877, p. 109–110).

In the early 1930s, the geologist and geographer Giotto Dainelli described the landscape of Ladakh (compare Fig. 2.2): . . .the valleys cut out of this side – which are never large, for the ridge of mountains which closes them in at their heads can be seen rising not far off, culminating in lovely snowy peaks and even a few small glaciers – have narrow openings, owing to their having been forced to cut their way across the line of these strata (Dainelli 1933, p. 75).

2.2.2

Glacier Distribution

Due to the cold-arid conditions and the specific topographical setting, the glaciers of Central Ladakh are characterized by their relatively small size as 79% of them are smaller than 0.75 km2 and only 4% are larger than 2 km2 according to remote sensing data from 2002 (Schmidt and Nüsser 2017). The largest glacier covering an area of 6.46 ± 0.38 km2 is located in the upper catchment of Skuru in the Central Ladakh Range. Most glaciers are located in the Ladakh Range, with 312 ± 29 km2 in the central part and 208 ± 21 km2 in the eastern part (Fig. 2.3). More than 1800 glaciers were mapped in the entire study region covering 997 ± 99 km2 (1052 ± 116 km2 including about 850 perennial snow patches).

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Scale 1 yard to 4 miles, published under the direction of Thulliler, Surveyor General of India; India Atlas Sheets No. 45.

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Fig. 2.3 Number of glaciers (A) and glacier covered area per size class (B) in the subregions (CLR: Central Ladakh Range, ELR: Eastern Ladakh Range, PR: Pangong Range, SR: Stok Range, R: Rong Range, KR: Korzok Range, KY: Kang Yatze Range, CZR: Central Zangskar Range, EZR: Eastern Zangskar Range). (Modified after Schmidt and Nüsser 2017)

Referring only to the regions above 4900 m a.s.l., where most glaciers are located, the highest relative glacier coverages are detected in the ranges of Central Ladakh and Pangong with 15% and 16%, respectively, followed by the Kang Yatze Massif with 11%. The lowest percentage of glacier-covered area in relation to the total area above 4900 m a.s.l. with less than 2% was identified in the Rong and Eastern Zangskar ranges (Fig. 2.4). Overall, the glaciers of Ladakh are characterized by their high altitudinal termini, with 91% of them situated above 5200 m a.s.l. Only in the regions of Central Zangskar and Central Ladakh do some glaciers terminate at elevations below 5200 m a.s.l. Towards Eastern Ladakh the minimum elevation rises to altitudes above 5390 m a.s.l. (Fig. 2.4). Due to their lower elevation, the catchments of Nang, Taru, Langkor, Umla and Skinding located in the Central and Eastern Ladakh Range have no glaciers in their upper valley heads.

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Fig. 2.4 Percentage of glacier-covered area in relation to altitudinal zones. (Modified after Schmidt and Nüsser 2017)

2.2.3

Glacial Lakes

In total 126 glacial lakes (>0.005 km2) covering an area of 4.13 ± 0.48 km2 with an average size of 0.03 km2 can be identified in Central Ladakh (Fig. 2.5). Their elevations increase from west to east from below 4900 m a.s.l. to above 5500 m a. s.l. (Schmidt et al. 2020). The highest numbers of lakes can be found in the Central Ladakh Range and around Tso Moriri in the Korzok Range. Despite the high number of glaciers only a few glacial lakes exist in the Eastern Ladakh Range. Due to glacier retreat, the overall number and size of glacial lakes increased between 1969 and 2018, although some drained and completely disappeared. Despite their small size,

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Fig. 2.5 Total area and number of glacial lakes in the subregions of the study area

some destructive GLOFs have been reported in recent decades (Narama et al. 2012; Tabassum and Kanth 2013; Schmidt et al. 2020) and most recently in Rumbak Valley in August 2021 (see below).

2.2.4

Glacier Changes and Glacial Lakes in Selected Watersheds and Ranges of Central and Eastern Ladakh

2.2.4.1

Central Ladakh Range

The glacier changes are shown for two watersheds located in northern tributary valleys of the Indus. The first example is the Leh Valley with elevations ranging from 3280 to 5750 m a.s.l. In its upper catchment, there are two glaciers and various small perennial snow patches. The two glaciers decreased by about 21% between 1969 and 2020. The larger one, the Phutse Glacier (Fig. 2.6), located in close proximity to the Khardung La terminating above 5365 m a.s.l., decreased from 0.74 ± 0.01 km2 in 1969 to 0.64 ± 0.05 km2 in 2002 (13%, 0.39% per year) and to 0.60 ± 0.03 km2 in 2020 (6%, 0.34% per year). The second one, the Nangtse Glacier, located above 5305 m a.s.l., decreased from 0.45 ± 0.01 km2 in 1969 to 0.42 ± 0.04 km2 in 2002 (7%, 0.2% per year) and to 0.34 ± 0.01 km2 in 2020 (16%, 0.9% per year). The second example is the Igoo Valley in the eastern section of the Central Ladakh Range (Fig. 2.7). In this catchment the glaciers are located above 5370 m a.s. l. in the south-eastern branches. The total glacier covered area decreased by about 33% (0.64% per year) from 1.20 ± 0.02 km2 in 1969 to 0.79 ± 0.04 km2 in 2020,

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Fig. 2.6 Phutse Glacier in the Leh catchment: top photo taken by Susanne Schmidt on 5 September 2017, in 1969 (middle) and 2020 (bottom)

with one cirque glacier decreasing by 39%. This glacier was separated into two parts between 1969 and 2002; thus, its area decreased from 0.52 ± 0.01 km2 to 0.39 ± 0.06 km2 (24%, 0.74% per year) and to 0.32 ± 0.02 km2 in 2020 (14%, 0.70% per year). The lowest rate of decrease is detectable in the highest glacier,

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Fig. 2.7 Glaciers in the south-eastern part of the Igoo catchment: top photo taken by Susanne Schmidt on 9 September 2017, in 1969 (bottom left) and 2020 (bottom right)

which is located above 5650 m a.s.l., with an area loss from 0.41 ± 0.01 km2 in 1969 to 0.38 ± 0.04 km2 in 2002 (7%, 0.22% per year) and to 0.30 ± 0.01 km2 in 2020 (20%, 0.98% per year).

2.2.4.2

Stok Range

The Stok Range is located on the southern side of the Indus River. Glacier distribution and changes in this range are exemplified by the two valleys of Rumbak and Stok in the vicinity of the highest peak, Stok Kangri (6140 m a.s.l.). In total 12 glaciers with an average size of 0.44 km2 cover an area of 5.23 ± 0.25 km2 in 2020. All of these glaciers are located above 5260 m a.s.l. The glacier-covered area

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Fig. 2.8 Terminal moraine of the Golep Glacier and the Golep Kangri (5935 m a.s.l.) in the Stok Valley. (Photo taken by Susanne Schmidt in September 2017)

decreased from 7.28 ± 0.13 km2 in 1969 to 6.40 ± 0.67 km2 in 2002 (12%, 0.36% per year) and to 5.23 ± 0.25 km2 in 2020 (16%, 0.90% per year). Similar to glaciers in the Ladakh Range, the relative rate of decrease varies according to the size and topographical position of glaciers. While two small hanging glaciers have lost more than half their size, eight cirque glaciers lost less than 20% between 1969 and 2020. Large terminal moraines mark the front position of the valley and cirque glaciers formed during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (Fig. 2.8). However, the exact timing of the maximum glacier extent in Central Ladakh is still controversial (Orr et al. 2017; Rowan 2017; Phartiyal et al. 2020). The terminal moraines indicate that the glacier extent during the LIA was larger but remained limited to high altitudes. On the other hand, debris-covered glacier tongues up to 1.8 km in length can be detected in the Rumbak Valley with an uncertain amount of stagnant ice and thermokarst features such as depressions and small lakes. In mid-August 2021, the largest of these lakes suddenly drained and caused a GLOF, which damaged a bridge, eroded some agricultural fields and swept away willow and poplar trees. The trees and sediments even partly blocked the Indus for several days, which raised worries of a larger flood event as announced by the District Disaster Management Authority of Leh on 21 August 2021. Further information is provided by the website of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP 2021). Remote sensing data indicate that the lake depression has existed at least since 1969 (Fig. 2.9). The depression was filled with water at varying levels between 1969 and 2013. In 2014 the lake drained without any reported damage and the depression was left with a very low water level until the winter of 2021. In the following spring, the depression was refilled with meltwater to a lake size of 0.03 ± 0.002 km2 until the GLOF event.

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Fig. 2.9 Development of Rumbak glacial lake to the north of Stok Kangri between 1969 and 2021

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2.2.4.3

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Kang Yatze Range

The Kang Yatze (or Nimaling) Range is located within the upper catchment of the Markha Valley, south of the Upper Indus Valley. It covers an area of about 1000 km2. The NW- to SE-oriented ridge increases in altitude from south to north from 3800 m a.s.l. up to 6400 m a.s.l. (Fig. 2.10). Small glaciers are most common, though larger valley glaciers with a maximum of 5.2 ± 0.04 km2 are found in the northern part of the massif. As in other regions of Ladakh, the glaciers are located on north-facing slopes. The glacierized area of the Kang Yatze Massif decreased from 96.5 ± 1.61 km2 in 1969 to 71.78 ± 2.25 km2 in 2020 (26%, 0.51% per year). The ice coverage’s rate of decrease has varied over the past five decades (Schmidt and Nüsser 2012): the highest rate of decrease at 0.9% per year can be detected for the most recent period between 2002 and 2020. Two of the six glacial lakes, which exist in the Kang Yatze Massif, have increased over the last five decades due to glacier retreat. The area of these two lakes located on the eastern valleys of the Kang Yatze Massif above the villages of Lato (Kaushik et al. 2021) and Gya enlarged from 0.03 ± 0.002 km2 to 0.08 ± 0.002 km2 and from

Fig. 2.10 Glacier changes in the northern section of the Kang Yatze Massif between 1969 and 2020 (left); Kang Yatze peak (top right, photo taken by Marcus Nüsser on 2 October 2015) and Gya lake (bottom right, photo location shown in the map, photo taken by Marcus Nüsser on 28 August 2019)

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0.03 ± 0.002 km2 to 0.11 ± 0.002 km2, respectively, between 1969 and 2020. The Gya lake, which was dammed by a large terminal moraine with stagnant ice, caused a GLOF event in 2014 (Dolma 2014; Schmidt et al. 2020; Majeed et al. 2021). The water release from the lake occurred through a subsurface tunnel and the body of the moraine was not destroyed by overspilling. A multi-temporal analysis using satellite data indicates a rapid increase in the lake level before the 2014 GLOF. Whether these lake level rises are caused by a blockage of the tunnel or by an increase in melt water due to a massive heatwave as reported by the villagers of Gya in 2014 remains unclear (Schmidt et al. 2020).

2.2.5

Impacts of Cryosphere Changes on Water Resources and Hazards

Human-environmental interactions between glacio-hydrological dynamics and socio-economic development processes in Ladakh have been discussed under the umbrella of socio-hydrological interactions (Nüsser 2017). Meltwater discharge from the cryosphere is of fundamental importance for irrigated agriculture, for tree plantations (Nüsser et al. 2012) and for the water supply of villages and the urban agglomeration of Leh (Dame et al. 2019; Müller et al. 2020). The cryosphere-fed irrigation network has always been prone to water scarcity in spring. To bridge critical meltwater periods and to increase irrigation potentials, different types of ice reservoirs, commonly known as ‘artificial glaciers’, have been introduced in different side-valleys of the Indus and promoted as appropriate adaptive strategies to cope with changes in the cryosphere (Norphel and Tashi 2015; Nüsser and Baghel 2016; Clouse et al. 2017). The traditional type of ice reservoir consists of a cascading series of rock walls in the river channels to reduce runoff velocity and to facilitate the process of seasonal ice formation under conditions of frequent freeze-thaw cycles (Nüsser et al. 2019a). Other ice reservoir types include basins or water diversion structures for ice accumulation during the winter. The sheet-like formation of ice layers created by successive and laminated freezing of flowing water, known as aufeis, can produce ice bodies that may persist until the onset of field preparation and crop cultivation in spring (Brombierstäudl et al. 2021, 2022). These man-made structures are located at elevations below the glaciers and above agricultural fields. In Nang village, where there are no natural glaciers, two ice reservoirs have been constructed to increase water availability (Fig. 2.11). The latest type of innovative ice reservoirs is the vertical ‘ice stupa’, whose name refers to the conical form of Buddhist stupas (Fig. 2.12). Plastic pipes divert water by gravity from the upper stream area to preferred locations, using the hydraulic head, produced by the altitudinal difference between intake and outflow. There, a vertical pipe with a sprinkler fixed on the top sprays out a fountain of water due to hydrostatic pressure which freezes on contact with cold air (Palmer 2022). Encouraged by a local competition, more than 25 ice stupas were built in the winter of 2019/ 20 (HIAL 2019) to recharge groundwater level, increase water availability and raise awareness of the severe impacts of climate change.

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Fig. 2.11 Diversion type of ice reservoir in Nang with successful ice accumulation. (Photo: Marcus Nüsser, 20 February 2014)

Fig. 2.12 Ice stupa which was built above the agricultural fields in Igoo in winter 2019/20. (Photo: Susanne Schmidt, 15 March 2020)

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In addition to determining the viability of crop cultivation, food security and urban development, cryosphere-related hazards pose a continuous threat to villages, infrastructure and land use development. Unlike the slow-onset climate change impacts of decreasing cryospheric resources that are experienced by local communities as a gradual change in water availability, the impacts of rapid cryosphererelated hazards such as GLOFs often result in disasters for villages and infrastructure (Schmidt et al. 2020). This also holds true for the urban agglomeration of Leh, where a drastic expansion of the built-up area into both cultivated and barren lands, especially in flood prone regions, can be observed (Dame et al. 2019, Schmidt et al. 2020, Chap. 3). As a consequence of urbanization, together with the growing numbers of inhabitants and tourists, groundwater demand has increased in Leh (Müller et al. 2020). However, the volume, abstraction and recharge of groundwater are largely unknown.

2.3

Discussion and Conclusions

The glaciers of Ladakh are generally characterized by their high altitudes regularly located above 5200 m a.s.l. Unlike the glaciers of the Greater Himalayan Range and the Karakoram (Hewitt 2014), most glaciers of Ladakh are free from debris cover, illustrating the primary importance of snowfall on glacier feeding in contrast to snow redistribution by avalanches as demonstrated for the south face of Nanga Parbat in neighbouring Gilgit-Baltistan (Nüsser and Schmidt 2021). Many valley glaciers of Central Ladakh are characterized by huge terminal moraines from the LIA, which still contain a significant amount of stagnant ice. As the cases of the GLOFs in Gya (Schmidt et al. 2020) and Rumbak show, thawing of intra-morainic ice bodies can lead to tunnelling processes resulting in massive floods and disasters. Such cryosphere-related hazards pose an increasing risk in the context of global warming, and these need to be considered in disaster risk reduction plans (Le Masson 2015; Chap. 3). The number of sub- and englacial lakes, referred to as “mathong pe tso” (non-visible lakes) in Ladakhi, are unknown and may also be susceptible to cause floods. These lakes are also reflected in local myths (personal communication, Tashi Morup 2022). Different glacier dynamics within the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh show that extrapolations on a regional scale are problematic as topographical parameters, glacier size and the fragmentation of different ice bodies need to be taken into account. However, change detection analyses show a drastic acceleration of glacier decrease for the most recent observation period from 2002 to 2020. The observed decreasing rate of glaciers in Ladakh is higher than in the Ravi Basin (Chand and Sharma 2015) or in the Chonga Basin (Sahu and Gupta 2020), and lower than in the Kashmir Valley (Romshoo et al. 2020). The observed glacier behaviour contrasts with the glacier increase in the upper Shyok Basin between 2002 and 2010 (Bhambri et al. 2013) and the surging glaciers in the Karakoram (Bhambri et al. 2017).

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Although, glacier decrease in Ladakh is not as pronounced as in many other Himalayan regions, the consequences of glacier decrease are nonetheless of vital importance for irrigation networks and local communities (Parveen et al. 2015; Nüsser and Schmidt 2017). An improved understanding and integrated analysis of glacio-hydrological dynamics and socio-economic development processes is needed to determine sustainable development pathways. In this context, integrated multi-data approaches (Chand et al. 2017; Nüsser and Schmidt 2021) and integrated socio-hydrological approaches can assist the investigation of human-environmental interactions and their changes. Considering the current trend of glacier decrease, it can be assumed that the small glaciers of Ladakh will further retreat. It cannot be stated with confidence when all or most glaciers of Ladakh will disappear. However, it is more important to determine when ‘peak water’, the hypothetical maximum meltwater discharge, will be reached. The remaining time should be used for appropriate and participatory land use planning taking into account the site-specific particularities of local sub-regions and mountain communities.

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Le Masson V (2015) Considering vulnerability in disaster risk reduction plans: from policy practice in Ladakh, India. Mt Res Dev 35(2):104–114. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-1400086.1 Majeed U, Rashid I, Sattar A, Allen S, Stoffel M, Nüsser M, Schmidt S (2021) Recession of Gya glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India. Sci Total Environ 756:144008 Müller J, Dame J, Nüsser M (2020) Urban mountain waterscapes: the transformation of hydrosocial relations in the trans-Himalayan town Leh, Ladakh, India. Water 12(6):1698 Narama C, Tadono T, Ikeda N, Gyalson S (2012) Characteristics of glacier lakes in the Ladakh Range, Western Indian Himalayas. Himalayan Study Monogr 13:166–179 Nature (1910) Sven Hedin’s “Trans-Himalaya”. Nature 2100(82):367–369. https://www.nature. com/articles/082367a0.pdf Nie Y, Pritchard HD, Liu Q, Hennig T, Wang W, Wang X, Liu S, Nepal S, Samyn D, Hewitt K, Chen X (2021) Glacial change and hydrological implications in the Himalaya and Karakoram. Nat Rev Earth Environ 2:91–106. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00124-w Norphel C, Tashi P (2015) Snow water harvesting in the cold desert in Ladakh: an introduction to artificial glaciers. In: Shaw R, Nibanupudi HK (eds) Mountain hazards and disaster risk reduction. Springer Nature, Heidelberg, pp 199–210 Nüsser M (2017) Socio-hydrology: a new perspective on mountain waterscapes at the nexus of natural and social processes. Mt Res Dev 37(2):518–520. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRDJOURNAL-D-17-00101.1 Nüsser M, Baghel R (2016) Local knowledge and global concerns: artificial glaciers as a focus of environmental knowledge and development interventions. In: Meusburger P, Freytag T, Suarsana L (eds) Ethnic and cultural dimensions of knowledge. Springer Dordrecht, Heidelberg, pp 191–209 Nüsser M, Schmidt S (2017) Nanga Parbat revisited: evolution and dynamics of socio-hydrological interactions in the North-Western Himalaya. Ann Am Assoc Geogr 107(2):403–415. https://doi. org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1235495 Nüsser M, Schmidt S (2021) Glacier changes on the Nanga Parbat 1856-2020: a multi-source retrospective analysis. Sci Total Environ 785:147321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021. 147321 Nüsser M, Schmidt S, Dame J (2012) Irrigation and development in the Upper Indus basin: characteristics and recent changes of a socio-hydrological system in Central Ladakh, India. Mt Res Dev 32:51–61. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00091.1 Nüsser M, Dame J, Kraus B, Baghel R, Schmidt S (2019a) Socio-hydrology of “artificial glaciers” in Ladakh, India: assessing adaptive strategies in a changing cryosphere. Reg Environ Chang 19:1327–1337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1372-0 Nüsser M, Dame J, Parveen S, Kraus B, Baghel R, Schmidt S, Kraus B, Baghel R, Schmidt S (2019b) Cryosphere-fed irrigation networks in the North-Western Himalaya: precarious livelihoods and adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change. Mt Res Dev 39(2):R1–R11. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-18-00072.1 Orr EN, Owen LA, Murari MK, Saha S, Caffee MW (2017) The timing and extent of quaternary glaciation of Stok, northern Zanskar range, Transhimalaya, of Northern India. Geomorphology 284:142–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.05.031 Orr EN, Owen LA, Saha S, Caffee MW, Murari MK (2018) Quaternary glaciation of the Lato Massif, Zanskar Range of the NW Himalaya. Quat Sci Rev 183:140–156. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.quascirev.2018.01.005 Palmer L (2022) Storing frozen water to adapt to climate change. Nat Clim Chang 12:115–117. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01260-x Parveen S, Winiger M, Schmidt S, Nüsser M (2015) Glacier-fed irrigation systems in Upper Hunza: evolution and limitations of socio-hydrological interactions in the Karakoram, Northern Pakistan. Erdkunde 69(1):69–85. https://doi.org/10.3112/erdkunde.2015.01.05

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Passang S, Schmidt S, Nüsser M (2022) Topographical impact on snow cover distribution in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India. Geosciences 12(8):311. https://doi.org/10.3390/ geosciences12080311 Phartiyal B, Singh R, Joshi P, Nag D (2020) Late-Holocene climatic record from a glacial lake in Ladakh range, Trans-Himalaya, India. Holocene 30(7):1029–1042. https://doi.org/10.1177/ 0959683620908660 Rankl M, Kienholz C, Braun M (2014) Glacier changes in the Karakoram region mapped by multimission satellite imagery. Cryosphere 8:977–989. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-977-2014 Romshoo SA, Fayaz M, Meraj G, Bahuguna IM (2020) Satellite-observed glacier recession in the Kashmir Himalaya, India, from 1980 to 2018. Environ Monit Assess 192:597. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10661-020-08554-1 Rowan AV (2017) The ‘little ice age’ in the Himalaya: a review of glacier advance driven by northern hemisphere temperature change. The Holocene 27(2):292–308. https://doi.org/10. 1177/0959683616658530 Sahu R, Gupta RD (2020) Glacier mapping and change analysis in Chandra basin, Western Himalaya, India during 1971–2016. Int J Remote Sens 41:6914–6945. https://doi.org/10. 1080/01431161.2020.1752412 SANDRP (South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People) (2021) About landslide lake in Uttarkhand & GLOF in Ladakh, August 29 2021. Retrieved January 5, 2022, from https:// sandrp.in/2021/08/29/about-landslide-lake-in-uttarakhand-glof-in-ladakh Schlagintweit H (1872) Hochasien. Ost-Turkistán und Umgebungen: nebst wissenschaftlichen Zusammenstellungen über die Höhengebiete und über die thermischen Verhältnisse. Hermann Costenoble, Jena Schmidt S, Nüsser M (2012) Changes of high-altitude glaciers from 1969 to 2010 in the TransHimalayan Kang Yatze massif, Ladakh, Northwest India. Arct Antarct Alp Res 44:107–121. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences7020027 Schmidt S, Nüsser M (2017) Changes of high-altitude glaciers in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh over the past five decades (1969–2016). Geosciences 7(2):27. https://doi.org/10.3390/ geosciences7020027 Schmidt S, Nüsser M, Baghel R, Dame J (2020) Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment. Nat Hazards 104:2071–2095. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04262-8 Soheb M, Ramanathan A, Angchuk T, Mandal A, Kumar N, Lotus S (2020) Mass-balance observation, reconstruction and sensitivity of Stok glacier, Ladakh region, India, between 1978 and 2019. J Glaciol 66(258):627–642. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.34 Soheb M, Ramanathan A, Bhardwaj A, Coleman M, Rea BR, Spagnolo M, Singh S, Sam L (2022) Multitemporal glacier inventory revealing four decades of glacier changes in the Ladakh region. Earth Syst Sci Data 14:4171–4185. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2022-60 Tabassum N, Kanth TA (2013) An overview of disasters in Leh with special reference to glacial lake outburst floods. Indian J Landsc Syst Ecol Stud 36:50–56 Taylor C, Robinson TR, Dunning S, Carr JR, Westoby M (2023) Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally. Nat Commun 14:487. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36033-x Thayyen RJ, Gergan JT (2010) Role of glaciers in watershed hydrology: a preliminary study of a “Himalayan catchment”. Cryosphere 4:115–128. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-4-115-2010 Thomson T (1852) Western Himalaya and Tibet: a narrative of a journey through the mountains of northern India during the years 1847–8. Reeve & Co, London Workmann FB, Workmann WH (1901) In the ice world of Himálaya: among the peaks and passes of Ladakh, Nubra, Suru, and Baltistan. T. F. Unwin, London

Chapter 3

Floods and Debris Flows in Ladakh: Past History and Future Hazards John Bray, Robert J. Wasson, Pradeep Srivastava, and Alan D. Ziegler

Abstract In August 2010, heavy rain triggered a series of debris flows, causing widespread destruction and loss of life in Leh, the largest town in Ladakh. In the light of this event, this essay presents an interdisciplinary perspective on flood history, climate change and disaster management in Ladakh and surrounding areas. In the first two sections, we summarise the geological evidence for earlier millennia, followed by a preliminary review of flood events in more recent recorded history. In the third section, we consider patterns of climate change, drawing on a range of different forms of evidence, including the reconstruction of past climates from meteorological records and tree-ring analysis. Finally, we introduce the concepts of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and ‘disaster incubation’ – the idea that disasters are not solely a natural phenomenon but rather that human action and inaction contribute to the scale of misfortune caused by natural events. Keywords Ladakh · Disaster · Climate change · GLOF · Meteorology On the night of 5–6 August 2010 Leh, the largest town in Ladakh, was beset by unusually heavy rain. The rain in turn triggered a series of debris flows, causing widespread destruction, particularly in the lower part of the town. The debris flows destroyed numerous dwellings and damaged the Sonam Norbu Memorial Hospital as

J. Bray (✉) International Association for Ladakh Studies, Riveredge, Singapore e-mail: [email protected] R. J. Wasson James Cook University, Townsville, Australia Australian National University, Canberra, Australia P. Srivastava Department of Earth Sciences, IIT Roorkee, India A. D. Ziegler Faculty of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Mae Jo University, Chiang Mai, Thailand © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 B. Humbert-Droz et al. (eds.), Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya, Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42494-6_3

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well as the All-India Radio station. The neighbouring settlements of Saboo and Choglamsar also were badly hit, as were Thikse, Igu, Shey, Taru, Phyang, Basgo, Temisgam and Achinathang in the Indus valley, together with other villages in the Nubra and Skiu-Markha valleys. The precise number of casualties may never be known but the Disaster Management Plan for Leh District, which was issued in May 2011, reported that about 233 people lost their lives, while 424 were injured, and 79 were still missing (Fig. 3.1).1 Ladakh is widely known as a high-altitude desert, and the 2010 floods were unprecedented in the loss of human life as well as the scale of the damage to property. Since then, as noted in the chronology at the end of this chapter, there have been further floods and debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall, for example in the Indus, and Nubra valleys in 2015. The question therefore arises whether these events form part of a lasting pattern caused by both climate change and heightened disaster risk. If so, how should government, civil society and ordinary people respond? In this essay we offer an interdisciplinary perspective on flood history, climate change and disaster management. Our main focus is on Ladakh, but we draw on supporting evidence from the surrounding areas, including the Karakoram region of northern Pakistan as well as Lahul in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh to the south of Ladakh (Fig. 3.2).

Fig. 3.1 A scene in Leh showing the mud and boulders deposited by the debris flows of 5–6 August 2010. (Photo: John Harrison.)

1

The Sonam Norboo Memorial Hospital in Leh also recorded 545 patients suffering from different types of post-disaster psychological disorder, including 95 acute cases (see Tabassum and Kanth 2013; Chap. 4).

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Fig. 3.2 Map of Central Ladakh, showing settlements mentioned in the text. (Map composed by Adilah Ahmad Khalis, National University of Singapore)

In the first two sections, we summarise the geological evidence for earlier millennia, followed by a preliminary review of flood events in more recent recorded history. In the third section, we consider patterns of climate change, drawing on a range of different forms of evidence, including the reconstruction of past climates from both instrumentally-measured meteorological data and tree-ring analysis. Finally, we introduce the concepts of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and ‘disaster incubation’ – the idea that disasters are not solely a natural phenomenon but rather that human action and inaction contribute to the scale of misfortune caused by natural events – and discuss how to avoid it. In the Appendix, we present a tentative chronology of major floods and debris flows in Ladakh: gaps in the historical record mean that this is almost certainly incomplete, even for the past century.

3.1

Geological Evidence

An examination of mud and boulder deposits in the large fans that lie between the Ladakh Range and the Indus River shows that large debris flows have occurred in past millennia. These flows are exposed in the walls of channels cut through the fans. They are up to several metres thick and have transported boulders that are up to two metres long. Optically Stimulated Luminescence dating at the Wadia Institute of

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Fig. 3.3 Debris flow deposits near the village of Nang, illustrating the size of boulders carried during past millennia. (Photo: Robert Wasson)

Himalayan Geology in Dehra Dun shows that these debris flows were deposited between about 17,000 and 4000 years ago, with most deposited in the last 10,000 years (Sharma et al. 2021). These events occurred before recorded history, but during a period when there was already evidence of human activity in Ladakh.2 In geological terms, they qualify as ‘recent’ (Fig. 3.3).

3.2

Floods and Debris Flows in Recorded History

There are still many gaps in our documentation, but the evidence for more recent centuries points to a long – albeit irregular – history of flood disasters. There are two strands to this history: the first concerns glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and the second concerns floods apparently triggered by heavy rainfall.

2

The earliest traces of a prehistoric campsite in Ladakh date back to at least 10,500 years ago (Government of India 2016). More recent evidence points to human habitation 15,000 years ago (Sharma et al. 2021).

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As their name suggests, GLOFs arise when drainage from a glacier is blocked by sediment or ice, thus forming a substantial lake, the bursting of which involves several processes (Richardson and Reynolds 2000). In the wider HimalayaKarakoram region, there has been a repeated pattern whereby the water in such lakes builds up over many years, and then the dam bursts, at times with devastating results. The Shyok River to the north of Leh has been especially prone to such disasters (Sinclair 1929; Richardson and Reynolds 2000). Hewitt (1968) and Hewitt and Liu (2010) list a series of GLOFs in the Shyok valley going back to 1533. However, the pattern is no doubt much older than that. Zubdavi (2009, p. 31) dates the arrival of the first Balti settlers around Leh to a devastating flood along the Shyok valley that destroyed villages near Khapalu between 1450 and 1470. The king of Ladakh was a relative of the ruler of Khapalu and allowed the villagers to settle in Chushot, upstream along the Indus valley from Leh. For the year 1896 the Church Missionary Society doctor and geographer Arthur Neve reports what sounds like a GLOF in the Suru valley above Sankhoo: The glacier which caused it, is in a hanging valley 3000 feet above the Suru valley. Its drainage became blocked, and then it burst, bringing down a vast quantity of rocks and mud which spread out over a square mile of land below and completely blocked the Suru river for about two days; it then burst the barrier and swept down the valley, devastating the lowerlying terraces and fields of Sankho, Kartse, and other villages for 40 miles down (Neve 1911, p. 349).

In the twentieth century, there were two major GLOFs in the Shyok valley. In 1926 a dam formed in the upper valley, creating a lake more than 6 miles (about 10 km) long (Mason 1929). When the dam burst in October 1926 it almost destroyed the village of Deskit, and wiped out the village of Abadan, some 250 miles from the Kumdan glacier. There was a similar episode three years later in 1929: 48 villages were affected, but it seems that only one life was lost (Gunn et al. 1930). More recently, a much smaller GLOF caused significant damage to the village of Gya, some 70 km east of Leh, in 2014 (Dolma 2014; Sharma 2018; Schmidt et al. 2020). The most recent event occurred on 21st August 2021 when an approx. three ha lake located in a debris-covered glacier tongue in the Upper Rumbak Valley, some 24 km to the south-west of Leh, suddenly drained causing a GLOF that damaged a bridge, eroded agricultural fields and swept away some trees. The trees and entrained sediments partly blocked the Indus for several days raising worries of a larger flood event. (SANDRP 2021; Chap. 2). There are few historical records of floods and debris flows triggered by heavy rainfall. However, drawing on reports from British officials and German missionaries, our current hypothesis is that there was a cluster of such events in the 1890s. The year 1894 seems to have been particularly severe. In July 1894 there was heavy rainfall in Ladakh, Kashmir and Lahul. As British Joint Commissioner for Ladakh, S.H. Godfrey was responsible for supervising the Central Asian Trade from Kashmir via Ladakh to Xinjiang. Floods destroyed a vital bridge near Kargil, thus threatening to hold up essential trade connections (Godfrey 1899, p. 261). Godfrey managed to organise repairs. However, in the process, his colleagues on the far side of the river

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narrowly escaped an even worse catastrophe when there was a landslide and debris flow, apparently triggered by the heavy rains. Godfrey reports what happened: At this time the officers encamped opposite had a narrow escape. Their tents were pitched in some fields near the village of Chalaskot, beneath a range of snow-capped mountains towering many thousand feet precipitously above them. About midday, a dull report was heard and a great piece of the mountain side appeared to be moving. A large area had become detached by the bursting of a subterranean lake, and was descending like a stream of lava upon the camp. . . Figures could be made out with the glasses, striking the tents and moving goods and chattels. They were just in time. Everything had been got out of the way as the mud stream swept past the village, carrying away trees, walls, fields and the very land on which the camp had stood down into the swollen and discoloured river (Godfrey 1899, p. 266).

In Leh, the Moravian missionaries likewise reported heavy rainfall in late July 1894: This caused great damage to the agricultural population because the enormous downpours of water led to more rapid melting of the glaciers and the mountain snow, so that the streams swelled and many fields were flooded, while fields on the mountain slopes were swept away altogether.3

In Lahul, the situation was even worse. A.W. Heyde, who had served as a Moravian missionary in the region since 1856, reported that there was nonstop rainfall for 2 days in late June 1894 (Heyde 1895, p. 110). As in Ladakh, landslides and debris flows destroyed fields, bridges and irrigation canals. In a side-valley the consequences were still more severe: a landslide created a dam across the river near the top of the catchment, and a lake quickly formed behind it. The dam burst “like a mountain that had suddenly turned into liquid”, and the water poured from the side valley into the main Beas valley: 133 people lost their lives (ibid.). Heyde concluded his account with a reflection that sounds familiar from more recent discussions: The tropical rains of India appear to be pressing more and more to the north and want to change the climate in our high valleys—a remarkable phenomenon that has already been perceived for some years (ibid, p. 111).

In 1897, the Moravian missionaries reported further flooding in Leh: Spring brought a quantity of rain, which in arid Ladakh counts as a rarity. From 18-25 May it rained almost without stopping, so that many of the houses in the bazaar built with simple clay bricks collapsed... As a result of the heavy rain and the rapid melting of the snow, the streams and rivers swelled and destroyed many paths and bridges, including the great bridge at Kargil, so that the travel on the main routes was greatly impeded and sometimes halted. In the fields, the flood waters caused much damage. In a flourishing village near Kargil the water destroyed about a third of the total number of fields.4

This account is corroborated by government meteorological records for Leh which report 2.17 inches (55 mm) of rain in May 1897 out of a total of only 5.08 inches

3 Jahresbericht der Missions-Station Leh 1894. MD 1572 No 10. Unitätsarchiv, Herrnhut. Translations from the German here and in subsequent references by John Bray. 4 Jahresbericht der Missions-Station Leh 1897, MD 1572 No 13. Unitätsarchiv, Herrnhut.

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(129 mm) for the whole year, and only 2.59 inches (66 mm) in the whole of 1898 (Mohammad 1909, Appendix by R.T. Clarke).5 There are still many gaps in the historical record but our current hypothesis is that fewer extreme precipitation events occurred in the period from the early 1900s to the late twentieth century, and that this encouraged the perception for many decades that floods associated with heavy rainfall were exceptional in Ladakh rather than commonplace. This thesis is broadly supported by Chevuturi et al. (2018), who show that around Leh monthly rainfall totals were low from 1901 to 1970 and then increased until 1995 when they again decreased temporarily. Nevertheless, some floods did occur in the first half of the twentieth century. For example, Abdul Ghani Sheikh (2015, p. 8.) recalls his father recounting how flood waters flowed into Leh bazaar from the Lungmar valley in the 1930s. In what may be an echo of the same event, the Indian scholar and traveller Rahul Sankrityayan (1950, p. 189) reports heavy rainfall in June 1933 and says that this led to the collapse of 50 houses in Leh. Even in otherwise dry periods, there is still a possibility of occasional extreme events, and our broad hypothesis about twentieth century flood patterns stands until more detailed historical and climate records become available.

3.3

Changing Settlement Patterns and Increased Vulnerability

It is clear that the Shyok GLOFs and the 1890s rainfall-driven floods, landslides and debris flows caused severe damage, including loss of life. However, the pattern and layout of Ladakhi settlements served to mitigate risks to some degree. Historically, Ladakhi villages were clustered on rocky slopes above the surrounding agricultural land, often lying immediately below a fort and surrounded by a wall. Indeed, it seems that the Ladakhi kings expressly forbade people to build houses on the agricultural land that surrounded these ‘clustered villages’ (Francke 1900, p. 222). The layout of the buildings in Tia village near Temisgam illustrates typical settlement patterns of the past (Fig. 3.4). This pattern may have been dictated in part by defence requirements. However, it also had the important benefit of making settlements less exposed to floods on the low-lying agricultural land nearby. The same basic pattern applied also to the much larger old town of Leh, which originally was clustered on the hillside below Leh palace, and surrounded by a defensive wall, as can be seen in Fig. 3.5. The bazaar, which came to form the commercial centre of the town, was laid out in the mid-nineteenth century. Thereafter new buildings began to emerge on either

5

The Moravian missionaries supervised the collection of meteorological data on the government’s behalf from 1883 onwards in Kyelang, and from 1887 in Leh. To date we have not been able to gain access to these records.

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Fig. 3.4 Tia village near Temisgam. (Photo: Natalia Munatajeva)

side. However, even in the early twentieth century, Leh was still relatively compact, as illustrated in the photograph taken by the German traveller Otto Honigmann6 in 1910 (Fig. 3.6). The photograph is taken from the Namgyal Tsemo temple above the town. The palace can be seen in the bottom right. The avenue of trees in the centre of the photograph runs along either side of the bazaar. The area worst affected by the 2010 floods is in the bottom left-hand corner. In past times, this area was almost completely unsettled: there were no buildings to be damaged by whatever floods might have occurred. More recently, and particularly in the past 30 years, the town has grown spectacularly, as documented by Nüsser et al. (2015) and Dame et al. (2019). The reasons include greatly expanded economic opportunities arising from the town’s status as a hub for tourism, as well as drastic changes in the rural economy, notably in the nomad regions of Eastern Ladakh.7 Another important factor has been the expansion of military infrastructure in and around Leh.8 In the 1880s the town’s population was

6

On Honigmann, see Appel (2009). We are grateful to Michaela Appel of the Museum Fünf Kontinente (formerly Staatliches Museum für Völkerkunde) in Munich for permission to reproduce this picture. 7 On this point, see Goodall (2004) among other sources. 8 See, for example, Dame and Nüsser (2008) and Aggarwal and Bhan (2009).

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Fig. 3.5 Leh in the 1850s. Illustrated London News, 24 January, 1857. (The horsemen in the foreground represent a whim of the unnamed artist.)

Fig. 3.6 Leh in 1911. (Photo by Otto Honigmann, looking south towards the river Indus)

estimated at some 2500 in winter and 3000 to 3500 in summer (Gazetteer 1890). At the time of the 2011 census, the population was some 30,870 (Government of India Population Census 2011). Changing settlement patterns around Leh have increased physical vulnerability to floods and debris flows. The same applies to nearby areas such as Choglamsar and

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Saboo, which suffered considerable damage in 2010. The drivers of this vulnerability include population growth arising from natural increase as well as migration from surrounding rural areas and other parts of India, together with the rapid growth of tourism. Other factors include changes in household structure, including the decline in polyandry, which results in the need for more houses because fewer people now live in common households shared by extended families (Day 2015; Dame 2018). All these factors have contributed to an increase in house-building in flood-prone areas. As will be seen below, this exposure to hazard is all the greater at a time when there is growing evidence of changing weather patterns leading to increased precipitation across the region since the 1990s and continuing in future decades.

3.4

Recent Climate Patterns and Future Prospects

Focusing only on the flood events produced by heavy rainfall (see the tentative chronology in the Appendix), rather than the GLOFs which involve many processes, there are two clusters of events: seven events between 1894 and 1935 (0.17/year), although the 1933/1934 event may be an outlier and if so the earliest flood cluster occurred between 1894 and 1926, and nine between 1970 and 2015 (0.2/year).The question therefore arises whether these clusters can be explained by variations of precipitation induced by changes in the climate. Ideally, it would be possible to draw on meteorological analysis for individual events, to complement analyses of longer-term climate trends. There are detailed meteorological analyses for the 2010 and 2011 floods, but there does not appear to be a similar analysis for the 2015 event. The 2010 flood involved a squall line of convective clouds on the Tibetan Plateau that received moisture from the south and moved southwest into Ladakh (Rasmussen and Houze 2012; Dimri et al. 2017). Bhan et al. (2015) show that the 2011 extreme precipitation event, for which there are no reports of floods, was of a similar kind to that of 2010; that is, both were caused by westward moving cyclonic disturbances. Both events were unusual because they occurred at a much higher altitude than most cloud bursts in the Himalaya (Dimri et al. 2017). Therefore, the causes of the apparent clusters of floods can only be identified by examining general statements about the trends and peaks in measured and reconstructed precipitation rather than through in-depth understanding of weather dynamics. Regional analyses are available from which trends and peaks in precipitation can be identified. Drawing on tree ring data, (Yadav 2011; Yadav et al. 2017) have reconstructed precipitation patterns back to 1439 for the Northwest Himalaya and compared their results with those of other authors. There were peaks in c. 1900 in the record from Padder Valley in Kishtwar District (to the southwest of Ladakh) and in the Lahul region to the south: this is a period, which roughly coincides with the German missionary reports cited above. There was then a decline until about 1960.

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The period from 1984 to 2014 was the wettest of the past 56 years, both in the two records mentioned above and in a lower resolution record from the Karakoram (also see Yadav 2011) in the Gilgit-Baltistan region, which is administered by Pakistan. Interestingly, there were peaks of precipitation in the months from May to July in both 1960 and 1990 in Lahul, only the latter of which coincides with the younger of the two flood clusters in Ladakh. Similarly, a peak occurred in Northern Pakistan in May 1960 with a further trend of increasing precipitation from about 1990, a trend that coincides with the latest flood cluster near Leh. Since Ladakh lies between these two regions, we may infer that a similar trend applies there. The twentieth century increase in wet conditions in the Northwest Himalaya and Karakoram is also seen across High Asia, providing further evidence of the regional nature of these climate changes (Yadav 2011). However, as we have seen, not all precipitation peaks coincide with the flood clusters near Leh. These peaks need not have produced floods if the rainfall was spread out over longer periods rather than concentrated in one or two days. While these regional analyses are valuable, the region’s varied mountain landscape means that it is better to have meteorological data from as near as possible to the sites of the floods. Turning first to flood flows in the Indus River, Cook et al. (2013) used tree rings to reconstruct river flow in the Upper Indus Basin. Around 1900 there was a rather modest increase in Indus flow, possibly caused by incursions of the monsoon but accompanied by only a small increase in snowfall from the Westerlies. While this increase in wetness roughly coincides with the earlier period of floods, only two of the seven events in that cluster can be unambiguously ascribed to flow in the Indus. The period from 1988 to 2008 had higher flows than any period since the 25-year period between 1684 and 1700. The increase is likely to have been the result of increased snowmelt, consistent with the conclusions of Fowler and Archer (2006) about increased winter precipitation. Increasing night temperatures may have been another factor (Sheikh et al. 2015). The recent high flow levels in the Indus River coincide with the latest cluster of floods. However, from available information the extent to which the Indus produced damaging floods is not clear. Closer to the sites of the floods and debris flows, the work of Chevuturi et al. (2018) may be helpful. Based on several data sets of varying length, spatial coverage and reliability, these authors conclude that there was a period of low precipitation at or near Leh from 1901, and then an increase between 1970 and 1995, followed by a decline from 1995 to 2011. Archer and Fowler (2004) have analysed meteorological records from the Upper Indus Basin in Gilgit-Baltistan where there is clear evidence of an increase in both winter and summer precipitation between 1961 and 1999, and this coincides with at least part of the record from Leh. They suggest that increased winter precipitation is the result of increased incursions by Westerly prevailing winds while the increased summer storms may be a combination of both Westerly disturbances and southwest monsoon incursions. Greater precipitation in winter leads to increased stream flow in the Indus the following summer (Yadav et al. 2017; Cook et al. 2013), while summer precipitation raises the risk of floods and debris flows in the side valleys of the Indus such as those near Leh.

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The precipitation patterns in the still-imperfect Leh records do not coincide precisely with the historic clusters of floods. However, Chevuturi et al. (2018, p. 540) point out that “extreme precipitating events (e.g., ‘cloudbursts’) may not be fully reflected in annual precipitation patterns”. On the slopes of – for example – the Ladakh Range, soils are thin and vegetation sparse: this means that there is little capacity to absorb large amounts of water, and therefore a high risk of floods and debris flows (Hobley et al. 2012; Bookhagen et al. 2005). With all due caution, and despite the lack of secure causal relationships, the available evidence appears to support the view that an increase in extreme precipitation causes extreme floods and debris flows. GLOFs also occurred during the two clusters of precipitation-induced floods, and heavy rainfall can overfill glacial lakes and generate floods. But GLOFs involve many other causal processes: these require further analysis that is beyond the scope of this essay. Turning to the future, Ali et al. (2015) used a global climate model to show that precipitation and temperature will increase in the Upper Indus Basin in GilgitBaltistan to 2100. These authors suggest that during the first half of the twentyfirst century Indus flow will be higher than before, probably as a result of meltwater from glaciers and snow as temperatures rise. Overall, the highest percentage increases of Indus flow will occur in winter although the largest flows will occur in summer, particularly when cloudbursts occur. Precipitation increases of up to 21% are indicated. Kulkarni et al. (2013) also suggest a 20–40% increase of precipitation by 2071–2098 by comparison with their baseline period of 1961–1990 in the same region, noting that the change is likely to be mostly in winter as a result of Westerly flow. They urge readers to be cautious about the details of their quantitative estimates as these are associated with large uncertainties. Even though these climate change projections are for the Gilgit-Baltistan part of the Upper Indus Basin, it is likely that they will also apply to Ladakh. A substantial increase of future precipitation, amplified by convection over the high mountains, may produce rainfall floods and debris flows larger than those experienced during the past century. At this point, the huge debris flows for earlier millennia discussed at the beginning of this chapter take on a heightened significance. In the worst case, they could be an analogue for future debris flows triggered by increased precipitation, and causing destruction on a much larger scale than occurred during the 2010 floods (Fig. 3.7).

3.5

Reducing Risk or Incubating Future Disasters?

Disasters are a consequence of an environmental hazard (in this case floods and debris flows) combined with human exposure and vulnerability. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) defines ‘exposure’ as “the people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses” (UNISDR 2009). It defines ‘vulnerability’ as “the conditions

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Fig. 3.7 Leh in the aftermath of the August 2010 debris flows: a sign of things to come? (Photo: John Harrison)

determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazard”. Effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) strategies therefore need to focus on reducing vulnerability, thus minimising the risk to property and human life, as well as responding to disasters when they do occur. So, what needs to be done to reduce risk in Ladakh?9 The first point is that DRR preparations require the active participation of all sections of society: political and religious leaders, government officials, the private sector, civil society, and ordinary citizens. On a similar note, no single professional discipline can provide all the answers. Ladakh needs a holistic strategy, combining a variety of different approaches. Secondly, there is a clear requirement for further scientific research. Our preliminary analysis above was based on a broad overview of regional data. There is a need for increased and more accurate monitoring of precipitation (both snow and rainfall), Indus River flow, temperature, glacier retreat and pro-glacial lake state, and permafrost. The task of filling in the gaps requires collaboration, both within India and internationally. Schmidt and Nüsser (2012, 2017; Chap. 2) have done important work in mapping changes in glaciers over the last five decades. Chudley et al. (2017)

9

Our comments in this section are informed by a September 2017 workshop held at the Ladakh International Centre (LIC) in association with the Ladakh Arts and Media Organisation (LAMO) and the National University of Singapore. We are grateful to all the participants of the workshop.

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have assessed glacier dynamics between 1991 and 2014 while Soheb et al. (2020) have provided detailed data on Stok glacier. However, more detailed on-the-ground monitoring will be needed to provide more effective early warning of future GLOFs. One possibility is that suitably trained local people could undertake this monitoring as part of a coordinated ‘citizen science project’. Meanwhile, though, government organisations will continue to play a key role. As Le Masson and Nair (2012) have noted, temperature and precipitation data collected by Indian government and defence agencies is often tightly guarded, possibly because of Ladakh’s status as a politically-sensitive border region. A more open approach to data sharing would do greater service to the wider national and international interest. Thirdly, there is an equally clear need for well-planned disaster response measures. As Gupta et al. (2012) point out, the Indian army played a key role in the initial response to the 2010 floods, notably in search and rescue operations and the rapid restoration of key transport infrastructure. Turning to the future, the Leh District Disaster Management Plan (2011) lays out the role of different government departments in future disaster prevention and response. At the same time, as Le Masson (2013, 2015) discusses in some detail, the role of local communities in disaster preparedness and response is widely underestimated and even ignored. It is essential to understand the social drivers that contribute to disaster and, potentially, to recovery. An obvious example is the construction of buildings in areas that are vulnerable to floods and mud flows. In the light of the 2010 disaster, it is abundantly obvious that certain parts of Leh and Choglamsar are highly vulnerable, yet new buildings have arisen, often in the same places, to replace those that were swept away (Le Masson 2015, p. 109; Ziegler et al. 2016, p. 4217). It is not sufficient to castigate the people who construct or live in these buildings, or to denounce the government for failing to prevent them from doing so. We need to understand and address the social and economic factors that lead people to take these risks. This task awaits more detailed research. A similar set of points applies to the need to involve – and learn from – rural communities. On this front, the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS), in collaboration with the Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council (LAHDC), has set up a promising project taking Taru village as a case study and prospective model for the future.10 Taru was badly hit by floods in 2010, and the project has been designed to assist recovery and plan future disaster management measures. On a smaller scale, Ikeda et al. (2016) report on a workshop held in Domkhar (Lower Ladakh) which had the combined objective of sharing scientific knowledge of GLOFs, and to learning about villagers’ understanding of disaster risks. They note that, even in rural Ladakh, “Knowledge inside a community is dynamic and reactive to global change”. Their findings point to the need for two-way information exchanges.

10

See: www.tiss.edu/view/11/projects/all-projects/gyurjas-tiss-lahdc-development-supportprogramme/. Last accessed on 26 April 2019.

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One of the topics discussed in Domkhar was the possibility of building “protective walls on the stream banks” (Ikeda et al. 2016, p. 35). However, many of the villagers noted that such walls constructed by the government would be easily broken by a flood. This observation touches on a wider theme. Concrete walls, bunds, gabions and ‘rock sausages’ are being used in Ladakh to protect farmland, houses and infrastructure from floods. In some cases, these have not survived subsequent floods, suggesting that they may not have been designed or constructed appropriately, or that such walls can never be strong enough to resist the forces of nature. Experience elsewhere shows that engineering solutions may create a false sense of security among people living nearby, thus increasing risks rather than reducing them (Collenteur et al. 2015). In the worst case, this may lead people to neglect other kinds of disaster risk reduction or response. The problems associated with misplaced faith in protective walls illustrate the potential for wider failures in preparation and planning. Turner (1978) makes the important point that disasters do not come from nowhere: they are typically preceded by a period of ‘incubation’ during which many errors and events accumulate that are taken for granted, go unnoticed, or are ignored, and that produce a collective failure of organisational intelligence. The result is a gradual drift to failure (Dekker and Pruchnicki 2013), each increment of which may be of little consequence, but in aggregate, is substantial. This need not be the fate of Ladakh. The region has many points in its favour, including relatively short communication lines between villages and decisionmakers in the LAHDC. It should be possible to learn from the distant and more recent past in order to plan for future hazards that are all but inevitable. However, this will require more effective cooperation between a range of different actors, including different government agencies, civil society and ordinary citizens.

Appendix: Tentative Chronology of Major Recorded Floods and Debris Flows in Ladakh This chronology is an initial working list of incidents over the last two centuries, and we hope to improve on it as we gather more data. The larger GLOFs in the Shyok and Nubra valleys are relatively well documented, but smaller floods and debris flows much less so. The apparent lack of incidents in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s may simply be to do with a lack of records in the sources currently available to us. Year 1826 1835 1839

Locations Khumdan glacier (?), Shyok river, Nubra Sultan Chussku glacier, Shyok river, Nubra Khumdan glacier, Shyok river, Nubra

Event types GLOF GLOF GLOF

Data sources Hewitt (1982), Hewitt and Liu (2010, p. 534) Hewitt (1982), Hewitt and Liu (2010, p. 534) Hewitt (1982), Hewitt and Liu (2010, p. 534) (continued)

46 Year 1841, June 1894, July

J. Bray et al. Locations Khumdan glacier, Shyok river, Nubra Leh, Indus Valley, Kargil, Suru Valley

1896

Suru valley

1897, May

Indus valley, Kargil, Suru.

1898, July

Shyok river, Nubra

1901, May

Shyok river, Nubra

c. 1904

Leh area

1913, May

Choglamsar

1926

Hunder (Nubra)

1926, October

Shyok river, Nubra valley

1929

Shyok river, Nubra valley

1932, July

Shyok river, Nubra valley, Indus River Shyok river, Nubra valley Leh area

1933, August 1933

Event types GLOF Flood damage to fields in Indus valley, some fields on mountain slopes swept away altogether. Floods, debris flows, bridges destroyed in Kargil, Suru valley. GLOF devastated lowerlying terraces in Kartse, Sankoo, other villages. Non-stop rain in Leh, 18–25 May; houses collapsed in bazaar, bridges swept away. A third of fields destroyed in village near Kargil. Many casualties. GLOF from Kumdan glacier GLOF from Shyok glacier Floods from Lungmar valley devastated Sankar, Chubi, Yurthung and covered Leh bazaar with mud. Sudden Indus flood. Flood and debris flow from the Dok Nala. GLOF from Chong Kumdan glacier almost destroyed Deskit, wiped out Abadan village. GLOF from Chong Kumdan glacier; 48 villages affected, only one life lost. GLOF from Chong Kumdan glacier GLOF from Chong Kumdan glacier. Heavy rainfall, floods (?) led to collapse of 50 houses in Leh.

Data sources Cunningham (1854, pp. 103–106) Jahresbericht Leh (1894). Godfrey (1899)

Neve (1911, p. 349)

Jahresbericht Leh (1897)

Hewitt and Liu (2010, p. 534) Hewitt and Liu (2010, p. 534) Sheikh (2015, p. 8)

Burroughs and Bass (2018), p. 25) Zain ul Abideen, cited in Rizvi (2011). Mason (1929)

Gunn et al. (1930)

Mason (1933) Hewitt and Liu (2010, p. 534) Sankrityayan (1950, p. 189) (continued)

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Year c. 1935

Locations Leh area

1970

Nyemo

1978

Indus valley, Sakti valley

1998, May

Gangles, Gonpa, Sankar, Changspa (Leh)

2000, July, August

Indus valley

2004

Phyang

2005

Sankoo, Suru valley

2006, July, August

Kargil District, Sankoo Block; Leh district: Leh, Saboo, Phyang, Igoo and Skara, Disket (Nubra)

2006 2009

Phyang Chushot

2010, August

Indus Valley, Skiu Markha Valley.

2013, August

Kargil

2014, August

Gya

2014–2015

Phugtal river (Zangskar)

Event types Floods from Lungmar valley again caused serious damage in Sankar, Chubi, Yurthung. Houses and fields destroyed in cloudburst followed by floods. Floods Floods, debris flows from below Khardong pass. Possible GLOF. Floods washed away most of Tibetan settlement at Spituk, damaged houses elsewhere; at least one person killed. Major flood destroyed fields, some houses and the bridge at Phyang Tokpo. Mudslide, 3 m deep and 80 m wide from side valley. Cloudbursts triggered flash floods, debris flows.

GLOF Flood from Stok Nala destroyed standing crops at Chushot Flood, debris flows, hyper-concentrated flows, LLOFs, GLOFs, cloudburst. Heavy rain led to floods and landslides, washed away part of the SrinagarLeh highway GLOF destroyed houses, agricultural land.

Phugtal river blocked by landslide, creating a 14 km-long lake. Dam burst in May 2015.

47

Data sources Sheikh, (2015, p. 8), Zain ul Abideen, cited in Rizvi (2011, p. 3) Zain ul Abideen, Abdul Ghani Sheikh, cited in Rizvi (2011, p. 3). Robert ffolkes, pers. comm., Rizvi (2011) Ladakh Studies 10 (1998, p. 6) Ladakh Studies 13 (2000), p. 2, citing Kashmir observer

Tashi Morup, personal communication.

Rizvi (2011, p. 4) citing Seb Mankelow and Kim Gutschow. Ladakh Studies 21 (2007), p. 9, citing Kashmir Observer, Mangat Daily Excelsior; Rizvi (2011, p. 4). Tsering Dolkar (2016) Rizvi (2011, p. 4) citing Zain ul Aabedin. Arya (2011), Le Masson (2013, 2015), Ziegler et al. (2016). Sharma (2018)

Dolma (2014), Sharma (2018), Schmidt et al. (2020), Majeed et al. 2021 Tsering Dolkar (2015a)

(continued)

48 Year

2015, JulyAugust

2017 August

J. Bray et al. Locations

Leh district (including Youlkham, Sumoor in Nubra; and Biama in Sham); Kargil district (including Shargole, Chiktan, Hardass, Karkitchoo, Drass, Suru valley) Achinathang, (near Khalatse)

2018 August

Saboo, Shey, Stakmo and Stakna

2021 August

Rumbak valley

Event types Extensive damage to agricultural land. Floods following heavy rain caused widespread damage to houses and infrastructure across the region.

GLOF (?), flash flood, killed 4 people, destroyed road bridge. Heavy rain damaged houses, canals, roads, vehicles. GLOF damaged a bridge, eroded agricultural fields and uprooted trees. The trees and entrained sediments partly blocked the Indus for several days.

Data sources

Tsering Dolkar (2015b)

Kunzang Chosdol (2017) Anon (2019)

SANDRP (2021)

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Appel M (2009) Kashmir-Ladakh – Baltistan. 1911/12. Fotografien von Otto Honigmann. Mit Beiträgen von Jürgen Wasim Frembgen und Bruno J. Richtsfeld. Staatliches Museum für Völkerkunde, Munich Archer DR, Fowler HJ (2004) Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8:47–61. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-47-2004 Arya R (2011) 5 Aug 2010, Flooding in Ladakh: A mega geological event of the century in the history of Himalayas. Paper presented at International Association for Ladakh Studies Conference, Leh, Ladakh, August 2011. Retrieved 10 Sept 2023. https://www.researchgate.net/ publication/308898235_5Aug_2010_Flooding_in_Ladakh_A_mega_geological_event_of_ the_century_in_the_history_of_Himalayas Bhan SC, Devrani AK, Sinha V (2015) An analysis of monthly rainfall and the meteorological conditions associated with cloudburst over the dry region of Leh (Ladakh), India. Mausam 66(1):107–122 Bookhagen B, Thiede RC, Strecker MR (2005) Abnormal monsoon years and their control on erosion and sediment flux in the high, arid Northwest Himalaya. Earth Planet Sci Lett 231:131– 146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.11.014 Brown ET, Bendick R, Bourles DL, Gaur V, Molnar P, Raisbeck GM, Yiou F (2003) Early Holocene climate recorded in geomorphological features in Western Tibet. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 199:141–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-0182(03)00501-7 Burroughs A, Bass M (2018) Yaks and cataracts. The Cloister Press, Gloucester Chevuturi A, Dimri AP, Thayyen RJ (2018) Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India. Theor Appl Climatol 131:531–545. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1989-1 Chosdol K (2017) Achinathang flash floods claim four lives, residents flee to safer places, Reach Ladakh. Retrieved May 26, 2018, from https://www.reachladakh.com Chudley TR, Miles ES, Willis IC (2017) Glacier characteristics and retreat between 1991 and 2014 in the Ladakh Range, Jammu and Kashmir. Remote Sens Lett 8(6):518–527. https://doi.org/10. 1080/2150704X.2017.1295480 Collenteur RA, de Moel H, Jongman B, Di Baldassarre G (2015) The failed levee effect: do societies learn from flood disasters? Nat Hazards 76(1):373–388. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s11069-014-1496-6 Cook ER, Palmer JG, Ahmed M, Woodhouse CA, Fenwick P, Zafar MU, Wahab M, Khan N (2013) Five centuries of Upper Indus River flow from tree rings. J Hydrol 486:365–375. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.004 Cunningham A (1854) Ladák. W.H. Allen, London Dame J (2018) Food security and translocal livelihoods in high mountains: evidence from Ladakh, India. Mt Res Dev 38(4):310–323. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-18-00026.1 Dame J, Nüsser M (2008) Development paths and perspectives in Ladakh, India. Geogr Rundsch 4(4):20–27 Dame J, Schmidt S, Müller J, Nüsser M (2019) Urbanisation and socio-ecological challenges in high mountain towns: insights from Leh (Ladakh), India. Landsc Urban Plan 189:89–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2019.04.017 Day S (2015) The more things change, the more they stay the same: idioms of house society in the Leh area (Ladakh). Tibet J 40(2):173–194 Dekker S, Pruchnicki S (2013) Drifting into failure: theorising the dynamics of disaster incubation. Theor Issues Ergon Sci. https://doi.org/10.1080/1463922X.2013.856495 Demske D, Tarasov PE, Wünnemann B, Riedel F (2009) Late glacial and Holocene vegetation, Indian monsoon and westerly circulation in the Trans-Himalaya recorded in the lacustrine pollen sequence from Tso Kar, Ladakh, NW India. Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol 279:172– 185 Deputy Commissioner Office, Leh (2011) Disaster Management Plan Leh District, Leh

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Ladakh Studies 21 (2007) Retrieved 14 Sept 2023. https://ladakhstudies553872937.files.wordpress. com/2018/03/ls21.pdf Le Masson V (2013) Exploring disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation from a gender perspective, insights from Ladakh, India. Ph.D thesis. Centre for Human Geography, Brunel University West London, London Le Masson V (2015) Considering vulnerability in disaster risk reduction plans: from policy to practice in Ladakh, India. Mt Res Dev 35(2):104–114. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRDJOURNAL-D-14-00086.1 Le Masson V, Nair K (2012) Does climate modelling help when studying adaptation to environmental changes? The case of Ladakh, India. In: Lamadrid A, Kelman I, I. (eds) Climate change modelling for local adaptation in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan region. Emerald, Bingley, pp 75–94 Majeed U, Rashid I, Sattar A, Allen S, Stoffel M, Nüsser M, Schmidt S (2021) Recession of Gya glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India. Sci Total Environ 756:144008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144008 Mason K (1929) Indus floods and Shyok glaciers. Himalayan J 2:10–28 Mason K (1933) The Chong Kumdan glacier. Himalayan J 5:182–130 Mohammad CK (1909) Assessment report of the Ladakh Tahsil. Civil and Military Press, Lahore Neve A (1911) Journeys in the Himalayas and some Factors of Himalayan erosion. Geogr J 38(4): 345–355 Nüsser M, Dame J, Schmidt S (2015) Urbane Entwicklung im indischen Himalaya. Geogr Rundsch 67(7/8):32–39 Rasmussen KL, Houze RA Jr (2012) A flash flooding storm at the steep edge of high terrain: disaster in the Himalayas. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:1713–1724. https://doi.org/10.1175/ BAMS-D-11-00236.1 Richardson SD, Reynolds JM (2000) An overview of glacial hazards in the Himalayas. Quat Int 65(66):31–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-6182(99)00035-X Rizvi J (2011) Floods and other abnormal weather events. Unpublished paper presented at the 15th conference of the International Association for Ladakh Studies. Leh, Ladakh, August 2011 SANDRP (South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People) (2021, August 29) About landslide lake in Uttarkhand & GLOF in Ladakh. https://sandrp.in/2021/08/29/about-landslide-lake-inuttarakhand-glof-in-ladakh Sankrityayan R (1950) Meri Jivan Yatra, vol 2. Kitab Mahal, Allahabad Schmidt S, Nüsser M (2012) Changes of high-altitude glaciers from 1969 to 2010 in the TransHimalayan Kang Yatze Massif, Ladakh, Northwest India. Arct Antarct Alp Res 44(1):107–121. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences7020027 Schmidt S, Nüsser M (2017) Changes of high-altitude glaciers in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh over the past five decades (1969–2016). Geosciences 7(2):27. https://doi.org/10.3390/ geosciences7020027 Schmidt S, Nüsser M, Baghel R, Dame J (2020) Cryosphere hazards in Ladakh: the 2014 Gya glacial lake outburst flood and its implications for risk assessment. Nat Hazards 104:2071–2095. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04262-8 Sharma CP (2018) Ladakh floods: a timeline of disaster, The Wire. Retrieved November 24, 2018, from https://thewire.in/environment/ladakh-floods-timeline-disaster Sharma CP, Chahal P, Kumar A, Singhal S, Sundriyal YP, Ziegler AD, Agnihotri R, Wasson RJ, Shukla UK, Srivastava P (2021) Late Pleistocene-Holocene flood history, flood-sediment provenance and human imprints from the Upper Indus River catchment, Ladakh Himalaya. GSA Bull 2021:275–292. https://doi.org/10.1130/B35976.1 Sheikh AG (2015) Floods in Ladakh: a glimpse through recent history. Stawa 2(9):8–10 Sheikh MM, Manzoor N, Ashraf J, Adnan M, Collins D, Hameed S, Manton MJ, Ahmed AU, Baidya SK, Borgaonkar HP, Islam N, Jayasinghearachchi D, Kothawale DR, Premalal KHMS, Revadekar JV, Shreshta ML (2015) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature indices over South Asia. Int J Climatol 35:1625–1637. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4081

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Chapter 4

Impact of 2010 Leh Cloudburst: A Psychological Perspective Nasrin Tabassum and Tasawoor Ahmad Kanth

Abstract Leh district of Ladakh region was hit by a catastrophic cloudburst at midnight on 6 August 2010, taking the lives of at least 234 people and injuring many others. The survivors of this disaster faced psychological trauma of different kinds, including acute stress response, acute stress disorders, and post-traumatic stress disorders. People between 20 and 40 years and those of low socio-economic status were the most vulnerable to post-disaster distress. The study of two disaster-hit localities, Leh town and Choglamsar village, shows that 70% of the patients were women, which might at first sight indicate that women are more vulnerable to postdisaster psychological problems. However, the association between post-disaster psychiatric disorder and gender was not found to be significant in our statistical analysis. A well-framed and comprehensive mental health and psychosocial support programme is imperative in order to address psychosocial problems arising in the aftermath of any future disaster. Keywords Psychological disorder · Post-traumatic stress disorder · Cloudburst · Leh · Ladakh The Leh region is sparsely populated with a limited resource base, which is fundamental to the sustenance of Leh city, both socially and economically. Since Ladakh is a high-altitude region and vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters (Dimri et al. 2017; Kumar et al. 2018), the resources of the area are under a constant threat of degradation. As a result, disaster-related studies are much needed in such a fragile area.

N. Tabassum (✉) Department of Geography, Eliezer Joldan Memorial College, Leh, Ladakh, India e-mail: [email protected] T. A. Kanth University of Kashmir, Srinagar, India © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 B. Humbert-Droz et al. (eds.), Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya, Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42494-6_4

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On 6 August 2010, Leh faced one of the worst kinds of disaster in the form of a cloudburst. The event yielded approximately 40–90 mm of rainfall in just 2 h and wreaked havoc in the city, both in terms of human and property loss (Thayyen et al. 2013, Chevuturi et al. 2018, Chap. 3). The consequent flash floods caught people unawares, and they were all the more vulnerable as the incident happened in the middle of the night. The entire administrative machinery of the region came to a halt as most of the basic infrastructure, including the hospital and roads, was damaged in the floods, further aggravating the impact of the disaster. A disaster not only affects the physical attributes of the landscape but also leaves people in trauma and can cause psychological illness. The trauma phase recovery is a long process, which needs to be analysed in detail so that the disaster resilience capacity of society can be increased (UNICEF 2005). Psychological effects show up at the different levels of functioning, including cognitive (perceptions and memory as a basis for thoughts and learning), affective (emotions), and behavioural functions. Three different types of post-traumatic psychological disorders are commonly described: 1. Acute stress response is a response, which can be experienced within minutes of the stressful event, and involves a person feeling dazed and disoriented, or agitated with panic. This response lasts no longer than 2 or 3 days, and is often resolved in a few hours (UNICEF 2005). 2. Acute stress disorder has a similar symptom profile to Acute Stress Response, but lasts for a minimum of 2 days to a maximum of 1 month, and occurs within 4 weeks of the disaster event (ibid.). 3. Post-traumatic stress disorder has a similar symptom response to Acute Stress Disorder but lasts for a minimum of 1 year to a maximum of the remaining lifetime after the traumatic event (ibid.). Social effects include alterations in personal relationships, family and community networks, and economic status (ibid.). Societies with less coping capacity are more vulnerable to disasters (Brymer et al. 2006; PAHO 2012). People with psychiatric issues, children and the elderly are generally more vulnerable to disasters. The lack of an effective social network can further aggravate the problem. Research has shown that women are less resilient and have higher chances of getting affected psychologically by any disaster – but see our null finding below (Charak et al. 2014; Kumar et al. 2007). As a result, disaster preparedness planning needs to focus on these high-risk groups (IASC 2007; North 2007; Leppävuori et al. 2009). Conditions such as stressful physical and mental state of the affected population and the loss of social support due to the occurrence of a disaster have been found to increase the incidence of mental health problems among survivors (Bullman and Kang 1994). The loss of life and property along with the disruption of social networks can result in long-lasting psychiatric disorders (Altman and Wohlwill 1977). The psychosocial impact of natural disasters on individuals, families and communities is often underestimated. Individuals who are separated from their family, witness injury or death, or experience the breakdown of their social support systems may be traumatized for life (PAHO 2012).

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Impact of 2010 Leh Cloudburst: A Psychological Perspective

4.1

55

Datasets and Methodology

During the course of the study, both quantitative as well as qualitative approaches were used in order to cover all the possible aspects of the psychological effects of the disaster. The datasets used were mostly collected from the archives of various departments of the district administration as well as interviews with the affected population and army officials, who played an important role during the crisis stage of the disaster. Standardized interviews consisting of similar sets of questions were held with psychiatric patients and their results analysed using the Chi-square (χ 2) test. The interviews were carried out in the two localities of the Leh area severely affected by the cloudburst: Maneytselding in Leh town and the Tashi Gyatsal area of Choglamsar village. The interviews were conducted in the months of August 2011 and August 2012 in order to assess the condition of the respondents one year and two years after the disaster. The Chief Medical Office at the Sonam Norboo Memorial Hospital in Leh was visited in the month of July 2011 and the records of the data regarding the victims who had developed some sort of psychiatric problems were collected (CMO 2010). These psychiatric patients included people from different residential statuses such as local Ladakhis, Ladakhi migrants, Tibetan refugees and temporary migrants from other parts of India. One of the limitations in data gathering was that a subset of the patients could not be interviewed. These comprised 68 outsiders or labourers from other parts of India i.e., not original residents of Leh district, and seven patients who were not in a condition to be interviewed as they were still under treatment. Out of 545 recorded psychiatric patients, the sample size of those that could be interviewed was thus reduced to 470. The χ 2 test, done at 0.05 or 5% level of significance, was used over the samples in order to find out the association of psychological disorders caused by the disaster and other variables pertaining to the patients such as gender, age group and socioeconomic status.

4.2 4.2.1

Results and Discussion Mental Disorders Faced by the Patients

In the aftermath of the 2010 Leh cloudburst, 545 victims with psychiatric problems were recorded in the two disaster-hit localities of Maneytselding in Leh and Tashi Gyatsal in Choglamsar. Of these, 450 persons (82%) developed acute stress response, which was the dominant response; 80 persons (15%) developed acute stress disorder; and 15 persons (3%) exhibited post-traumatic stress disorder (see Table 4.1).

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Table 4.1 Psychological disorders post 2010 Leh cloudburst

Psychological disorder Post-traumatic stress disorder Acute stress disorder Acute stress response

Psychiatric patients 15(3%) 80(15%) 450(82%)

Data source: Sample survey, 2012 Table 4.2 Gender and disorder association Disorder Post-traumatic stress disorder Acute stress disorder Acute stress response Total

Psychiatric patients 15

Male 5

Female 10

80 450 545

30 128 163

50 322 382

Chisquare 2.743

Degree of freedom 2

p value 0.254

Source: Sample survey, 2012

4.2.2

Gender of the Psychiatric Patients

The study of two disaster-hit localities of Leh town and Choglamsar village shows that 70% of the patients were women, which might indicate that women were more vulnerable to psychological problems post-disaster (Table 4.2). However, using the Chi-square test to check the association between gender and the specific disorder, we found that the p value is greater than 0.05, which implies that there is no significant difference between gender and the disorder suffered. In our study, both males and females appear to be vulnerable to psychological disorders, irrespective of their gender. In contrast to our surprising null finding, several studies on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from India and Western countries do suggest a higher rate in females compared to males (John et al. 2007; Kessler et al. 1995; Kumar et al. 2007; Olff et al. 2007; Olff 2017). Charak et al. (2014) who studied the factor structure of PTSD in 313 trauma survivors from Jammu & Kashmir, including 200 participants affected by the 2010 Leh flash flood, found that females had overall higher PTSD scores compared to males. Females scored significantly higher on two of the five-factor Dysphoric Arousal model they focused on, namely “re-experiencing” and “anxious arousal”. However, there was no difference across gender in the three other factors: “avoidance” “numbing” and “dysphoric arousal”. The interaction of gender and various social/family factors highlights the interconnectedness of vulnerability factors such as those of a socio-economic, psychological, physical and geographic nature. While men typically cope using individual and immediate decision-making, women use their social networks to process and work through problems (Kawachi and Berkman 2000). In their study, however, Charak et al. (2014) indicate that the lack of differences across gender in some factors of PTSD may be due to a tendency to cope at a societal level, for both males and females, when faced with a trauma incident experienced by

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Table 4.3 Causes of distress and gender association Causes of distress Loss of loved ones Loss of home Loss of property˟

Psychiatric patients 243

Male 43

80 147

12 107

Female 200

Chisquare 139.258

Degree of freedom 2

p value < .001

68 40

Data source: Sample survey, 2012 ˟Property: shops, hotels, guesthouses and other source of livelihood

all. This may have led to overcoming traditional gender role expectations leading to expression of distress in males or use of problem-focused coping strategies by females.

4.2.3

Cause of Distress in Psychiatric Patients

The main causes of distress in 470 psychiatric patients interviewed in 2012, two years after the disaster, were loss of loved ones (243) followed by loss of property (147) and loss of home (80) (Table 4.3). Using Chi-square over the sample, the p value is found to be less than 0.05. This shows that there is a significant difference between the cause of distress and the gender of psychiatric patients. This indicates that, rather than women being more distressed than men, male and female patients are differently affected by different causes i.e., females by loss of loved-ones and homes and men by loss of property such as shops, hotels and other sources of livelihood. In a presentation made at the IALS 2011 Conference in Leh, journalist and researcher Rinchen Dolma, who interviewed disaster victims, also observed that in the long run, males seem to be more mentally affected by the financial loss they have suffered and their fear for family security.

4.2.4

Age Group of Psychiatric Patients

In terms of age, the 20–40-year-old adults appear to be most affected by disasterrelated disorders.1 About 60% (327) of the patients were from this age group, whereas 35% (191) were older than 40 and only 5% (27) below 20 (Table 4.4). As

1

A recent study by Sambu and Mhongo (2019), found, similarly, that 20–35-year-old adults exhibited the least resilience to trauma in a village population affected by severe political violence in Kenya.

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Table 4.4 Age and disorder association Age (years) Below 20 20–40 Above 40

Post- traumatic stress disorder 1

Acute stress disorder 11

Acute stress response 15

Total (545) 27

9 5

30 39

288 147

327 191

Chisquare 27.94

Degree of freedom 4

p value 0.01

Source: Sample survey, 2012

the p value is less than 0.05, there is a statistically significant relationship between the disorders and the age of the patients. The 20–40 age group may have more burdens and stresses, such as caring and providing support for a family that may be exacerbated in the aftermath of a disaster. Parents in this group may be particularly vulnerable to psychological distress because they are at the crucial child-rearing stage of their life and are worried about their future.

4.2.5

Socio-economic Status of Psychiatric Patients

The impact of disaster on poor people appears to be much more significant. The poor suffer from income fluctuations and have limited access to financial services and resources in the aftermath of a disaster, which may make them more prone to depression and other types of psychological disorder. In the case of the Leh cloudburst, as per the hospital’s records, the majority of the patients (71%) were from the labouring class (migrant workers, Ladakhi daily-wage earners) and 22% were employees (office workers and other private jobs). Only 7% were from the business class (shop owners, guesthouse and hotel owners) (Table 4.5). Use of Chi-square test over the sample shows that the p value is less than 0.05, so there is a significant difference between the disorder and the economic status of psychiatric patients. It implies that people from lower economic strata of society are more vulnerable to disorder than people from the higher strata. People from the labouring class are seen to be most vulnerable to psychological disorder. Fothergill and Peek (2004) have reviewed a number of studies attempting to relate socio-economic status to hazard risk. These studies show that the depth of damage and the socio-economic status have an inverse relationship. People of low socioeconomic status are at a higher risk of hazards in terms of the damage or destruction of their homes, owing to low quality construction (Austin and Schill 1994; Bolin 1986; Greene 1992; Phillips 1993; Phillips and Ephraim 1992; Hallegatte et al. 2017) as well as the location of constructions in unsafe areas (Ziegler et al. 2016; Dame et al. 2019; Chap. 3). Studies have also shown that the magnitude of the impact on people’s mental health is directly related to the distance from the disaster

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Table 4.5 Economic status and disorder association of the psychiatric patients Economic status Labour class “Employee class” Business class Total

Post-traumatic stress disorder 3

Acute stress disorder 40

Acute stress response 342

9

33

78

120

3

7

30

40

Total (545) 385

Chisquare 43.62

Degree of freedom 4

p value 0.01

545

Source: Sample survey, 2012

site. People living in close proximity to the disaster site, show higher mental health impact compared to people living far from it (Ford et al. 2003). Recent reports of the World Bank and of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) indicate that, globally, people living in floodplains, both rich and poor, had increased by 114 percent from 1970 to 2010 with a corresponding more than tenfold increase in damage costs from natural disasters (from $14 billion to over $140 billion) (GFDRR 2016; Hallegatte et al. 2017).

4.2.6

Status of Psychiatric Patients Two Years After the Disaster

Complete recovery from a mental trauma caused by a natural disaster may be impossible but the impact of disaster on the psychological health of a victim may diminish with the passage of time. In the case of the 2010 cloudburst, almost all the psychiatric patients (99%) had recovered two years after the disaster (Table 4.6). They had recovered in the sense that they were no longer on medication and did not attend counselling sessions. The 1% of psychiatric patients still under treatment was frequently visited by psychiatrists for counselling and was still under medication.

4.2.7

Psychosocial Support in Leh District

Psychosocial support in the context of disasters consists of comprehensive interventions aimed at addressing a wide range of problems arising in the aftermath of a disaster. Psychosocial support helps to reduce the level of actual and perceived stress that may prevent adverse psychological and social consequences among disasteraffected people (Satapathy 2009). It has been recognized that most disaster-affected persons experience stress and emotional reactions after a disaster, which need to be

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Table 4.6 Mental status of psychiatric patients 2 years after the disaster

Psychiatric patient Recovered psychiatric patient Not-recovered psychiatric patient

Number 538 (99%) 7 (1%)

Source: Sample survey, 2012

assessed by a psychiatrist (ibid.). Prior to the cloudburst of 2010 there was only one practising psychiatrist in Leh but the district had no doctors trained in psychosocial care. After the disaster, various national and international NGOs came to Leh to provide psychosocial support. People from different Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) such as the Tata Institute of Social Science, the Emergency Management Agency and Médecins Sans Frontières offered training in psycho-social support to doctors, pharmacists, and other medical staff from the Sonam Norboo Memorial Hospital. Other NGOs involved in humanitarian crisis response and psychosocial support included Care, Oxfam, the Red Cross, St John Ambulance and World Vision. However, a discussion held with hospital officials two years after the disaster (June 2012) revealed that no new appointments of any psychiatrist or psychologist had been made, and this should have been done on priority basis.

4.3

Conclusion

In the case of 2010 Leh cloudburst, patients in the 20–40 age group and people with low socio-economic status were the most vulnerable to post-disaster distress. A wellfunctioning psychological support system was missing before the cloudburst. Drawing the lessons from the flash flood’s psychological impact, Leh District must ensure an adequate provision of doctors and other staff trained in psychosocial care and capable of addressing the needs of people affected by any future disaster. It is also important to include these needs in regional Disaster Risk Reduction Plans (Le Masson 2015; Ahmed et al. 2019; Akbar et al. 2023).

References Ahmed B, Sammonds P, Saville NM, Le Masson V, Suri K, Bhat GM, Thusu B (2019) Indigenous mountain people’s risk perception to environmental hazards in border conflict areas. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.01.002 Akbar M, Bhat MS, Khan AA (2023) Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping for disaster risk reduction in Kargil-Ladakh region of trans-Himalayan India. Environ Earth Sci 82(68). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10729-7 Altman I, Wohlwill JF (1977) Human behaviour and the environment: advances in theory and research. Plenum, New York Austin R, Schill M (1994) Black, brown, red, and poisoned. In: Bullard RD (ed) Unequal protection: environmental justice and communities of color. Sierra Club Books, San Francisco, pp 53–76

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Bolin R (1986) Disaster impact and recovery: a comparison of black and white victims. Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 4(1):35–50 Brymer M, Jacobs A, Layne C, Pynoos R, Ruzek J, Steinberg A, Vernberg E, Watson P (2006) Psychological first aid: field operations guide. National Child Traumatic Stress Network and National Center for PTSD, 2nd Edition, New York. Retrieved May 5, 2018, from: www.nctsn. org and www.ncptsd.va.gov Bullman TA, Kang HK (1994) Posttraumatic stress disorder and the risk of traumatic deaths among Vietnam veterans. J Nerv Ment Dis 182(11):604–610. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005053199411000-00002 Charak R, Armour C, Elkilit A, Angmo D, Elhai JD, Koot HM (2014) Factor structure of PTSD and relation with gender in trauma survivors from India. Eur J Psychotraumatol 5:25547. https://doi. org/10.3402/ejpt.v5.25547 Chevuturi A, Dimri AP, Thayyen RJ (2018) Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India. Theor Appl Climatol 131:531–545. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1989-1 CMO (2010) Chief Medical Office Records. Sonam Norboo Memorial Hospital, Leh Dame J, Schmidt S, Müller J, Nüsser M (2019) Urbanisation and socio-ecological challenges in high mountain towns: insights from Leh (Ladakh), India. Landsc Urban Plan 189:189–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2019.04.017 Dimri AP, Chevuturi A, Niyogi D, Thayyen RJ, Ray K, Tripathi SN, Mohanty UC (2017) Cloudbursts in Indian Himalayas: a review. Earth Sci Rev 168:1–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. earscirev.2017.03.006 Ford CA, Udry JR, Gleiter K, Chantala K (2003) Reactions of young adults to September 11, 2001. Arch Paediatr Adolesc Med 157:572–578. https://doi.org/10.1001/archpedi.157.6.572 Fothergill A, Peek LA (2004) Poverty and disasters in the United States: a review of recent sociological findings. Nat Hazards 32:89–110. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000026792. 76181.d9 Greene M (1992) Housing recovery and reconstruction: lessons from recent urban earthquakes. In: Anon. (ed) Proceedings of the 3rd U.S./Japan workshop on urban earthquakes. Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) Publication No. 93-B, Oakland, California, pp 11–15 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) (2016) Annual report 16: bringing resilience to scale. Washington D.C: GFDRR. Retrieved May 5, 2018, from https://www.gfdrr. org/sites /default/ files/publication/annual-report-2016.pdf Hallegatte S, Vogt-Schilb A, Bangalore M, Rozenberg J (2017) Unbreakable: building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters. World Bank, Climate Change and Development Series, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1003-9 Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) (2007) IASC guidelines on mental health and psychosocial support in emergency settings. IASC, Geneva John PB, Russell S, Russell PSS (2007) The prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder among children and adolescents affected by tsunami disaster in Tamil Nadu. J Disaster Manag Response 5:3–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dmr.2006.11.001 Kawachi I, Berkman L (2000) A historical framework for social epidemiology: social determinants of population health. In: Kawachi I, Berkman L (eds) Social epidemiology. Oxford University Press, New York, pp 1–15 Kessler RC, Sonnega A, Bromet E, Hughes M, Nelson CB (1995) Posttraumatic stress disorder in the national co-morbidity survey. Arch Gen Psychiatry 52:1048–1060. https://doi.org/10.1001/ archpsyc.1995.03950240066012 Kumar MS, Murhekar MV, Hutin Y, Subramanian T, Ramachandran V, Gupta MD (2007) Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder in coastal fishing village in Tamil Nadu, India, after the December 2004 tsunami. Am J Public Health 97:99–101. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih. gov/pmc/articles/PMC1716229/ Kumar A, Gupta AK, Bhambri R, Verma A, Tiwari SK, Asthana AKL (2018) Assessment and review of hydrometeorological aspects for cloudburst and flash flood events in the third pole region (Indian Himalaya). Polar Sci 18:5–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2018.08.004

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Le Masson V (2015) Considering vulnerability in disaster risk reduction plans: from policy to practice in Ladakh, India. Mt Res Dev 35(2):104–114. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRDJOURNAL-D-14-00086.1 Leppävuori A, Paimi S, Avikainen T, Nordman T, Puustinen K, Riska M (2009) Suuronnettomuustilanteidenkriisityö [Crisis management in disaster situations]. Helsinki, Tammi North CS (2007) Epidemiology of disaster mental health. In: Ursano RJ, Fullerton CS, Raphael B, Weisaeth L (eds) Textbook of disaster psychiatry. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 29–46 Olff M (2017) Sex and gender differences in post-traumatic stress disorder: an update. Eur J Psychotraumatol 8(sup4). https://doi.org/10.1080/20008198.2017.1351204 PMCID: PMC5632782 Olff M, Langeland W, Draijer N, Gersons BP (2007) ‘Gender differences in posttraumatic stress disorder. Psychol Bull 133(2):183–204. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.133.2.183. PMID: 17338596 Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) (2012) Mental health and psychosocial support in disaster situations in the Caribbean. PAHO, Washington, D.C. Phillips BD (1993) Cultural diversity in disasters: sheltering, housing, and long-term recovery. Int J Mass Emerg Disasters 11(1):99–110. http://www.ijmed.org/articles/368/download/ Phillips B, Ephraim M (1992) Living in the aftermath: blaming processes in the Loma Prieta earthquake. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, Boulder. Working Paper No. 80 Sambu LJ, Mhongo S (2019) Age and gender in relation to resilience after the experience of trauma among Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) in Kiambaa Village, Eldoret East Sub-County, Kenya. J Psychol Behav Sci 7(1):31–40. https://doi.org/10.15640/jpbs.v7n1a4 Satapathy S (2009) Psychosocial care in disaster management, 1st edn. National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), New Delhi, pp 24–65 Thayyen RJ, Dimri AP, Kumar P, Agnihotri G (2013) Study of cloudburst and flash floods around Leh, India, During August 4–6, 2010. Nat Hazards 65:2175–2204. https://doi.org/10.1007/ s11069-012-0464-2 UNICEF (2005) Annual report: unite for children. UNICEF, New York Ziegler A, Sebastian I, Cantarero SI, Wasson RJ, Srivastava P, Spalzin S, Chow WTL, Gillen J (2016) A clear and present danger: Ladakh’s increasing vulnerability to flash floods and debris flows. Hydrol Process 30(22):4214–4223. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10919

Chapter 5

Traditional Mathematical Theories of Rainfall Prediction Through Lotho as Practised in Ladakh Dorjey Angchok

Abstract Farmers in Ladakh pay heed to weather forecasting based on the astrology of the lotho (lo tho) (Tibetan almanac), to carry out their agronomic practices of crop production. This knowledge system came along with Buddhism from Tibet, where this important field of learning has much declined under Chinese administration. To understand its validity in today’s context, the author, in earlier work, found that the rainfall predictions made through lotho were quite accurate and agreed with the predictions made by government meteorological departments (tested in Varanasi) through modern techniques and procedures. There is no systematic study of lotho as very few scholars have attempted to see the rationality of this rich ancient knowledge system. Therefore, this paper documents two major mathematical theories of rainfall prediction through lotho, as practised by the local people in Ladakh. It is hoped that this study will help researchers in a heuristic way to make weather predictions that are more accurate and reliable. Keywords Tibetan astrology · Almanacs · Weather forecasting · Lo tho · Ladakh Ladakh is a high-altitude, cold, arid and traditionally agriculture-based region. Its prosperity and development largely depend on the sustainability of agricultural growth and development (Tuladhar et al. 2023; Chaps. 12 and 14). While factors such as inputs, agronomic practices and plant protection measures can be manipulated, the vagaries of weather and climate are key to the success of agriculture but can neither be adjusted nor controlled (Pant et al. 2018). Humankind has not yet discovered a method of controlling weather and climate. However, it has been able to devise means of minimizing some of their unfavourable effects by forecasting future weather patterns. In the field of agricultural planning, the importance of weather forecasting cannot be over-emphasised. The ever-growing demands for not only short- or mediumrange but also long-range forecasts have placed greater burdens and responsibilities D. Angchok (✉) Defence Institute of High Altitude Research (DIHAR), Leh, Ladakh, India e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 B. Humbert-Droz et al. (eds.), Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya, Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42494-6_5

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on national weather services, such as the Indian Meteorological Department (Kumar et al. 2021). According to Mishra (1998), the long-term weather services provided by the government’s meteorological department have largely failed to attain their objectives. In Ladakh, the timing of various agricultural practices is decided in consultation with an astrologer, who refers to ancient texts and mathematical calculations to suggest suitable times to carry out agricultural operations such as ploughing, sowing and harvesting. It is common to find one single date applicable to everyone in a given village, or to a chutso (a group of households in a village), to carry out such operations. Material or non-material sanctions are levied on defaulters who carry out agricultural operations before the agreed time period. Village astrologers are correct in a surprisingly high percentage of their weather predictions (Angchok 2000). According to Mishra (1998), the most important and surprising part of the ancient scriptures is that weather predictions for the coming year are made with a high level of accuracy even before the start of the year. This long-term forecasting is of great value to the farming community who plan their annual programme accordingly, whereas short-term predictions are of much less value other than for immediate action. Ladakh still has a long list of indigenous knowledge systems for making a wide range of weather forecasts. However, present-day meteorologists are not endeavouring to test these methods recorded in ancient literature on astro-meteorology,1 perhaps because of an assumption that they are inferior and not scientific enough to justify consideration. Ladakh had significant scientific and technological traditions in the past, which were brought from Tibet along with Mahayana Buddhism, after it was introduced there by the tantric master Padmasambhava around the eighth century CE (Gyaltsan 1997). In contrast, the history of modern scientific weather forecasting is only a little over 150 years old. But even before these scientific methods were introduced, Ladakhis could predict the weather in advance. This poses a vital question: how did they do this? To what extent were they correct in their predictions? And what were the methods they employed in their forecasting process? The answer to these queries lies in Ladakh’s ancient knowledge system, cultural heritage, proverbs and scriptures. To understand the accuracy of these predictions made through indigenous methods in today’s context, this author conducted a study in which it was concluded that rainfall predictions made by Tibetan astrological theories, on an average, go hand-in-hand and in some cases are at par with the predictions made by government meteorological departments through modern techniques and procedures (Angchok and Dubey 2006).

For a brief history of astro-meteorology, also see Scofield (2010) ‘A History and test of planetary weather forecasting’.

1

5

Traditional Mathematical Theories of Rainfall Prediction. . .

65

With the help of age-old astro-meteorological knowledge, an alternative but more reliable method needs to be researched, benefitting the farming community in making appropriate decisions and choosing effective strategies. Based on the above background, and more importantly, encouraged by the positive outcome of such studies related to the field of ancient Tibetan astro-meteorology, the present study was undertaken as an effort to document two major mathematical theories of rainfall prediction through lotho (Tibetan almanac), as practised by local people in Ladakh. It is hoped that this study will help researchers to make weather predictions that are more accurate and reliable.

5.1

Methods of Weather Forecasting

Precise, accurate and reliable weather forecasting is the goal of atmospheric research. The methods of weather forecasting can be broadly categorized into two groups: modern methods and ancient/indigenous/traditional methods, based on criteria such as broad areas of knowledge, their evolution and techniques employed (Angchok 2000).

5.1.1

Modern Methods

The nature of modern methods is not only highly complex and quantitative, but also resource-intensive and requires a strong scientific base (Mishra 1998). The various methods used in forecasting the weather are (i) synoptic methods (ii) numerical methods and (iii) statistical methods (Petterssen 1956).

5.1.2

Indigenous Methods

Meteorology is generally believed to be a new science. However, in India and in some neighbouring regions like Tibet, weather forecasting has been in existence from a very early date (Angchok 2000). Even today, it is commonly the case that village astrologers (in India following their respective almanacs) are correct in a surprisingly high percentage of their weather predictions (Raman 1983). The rules are simple and dispense with costly apparatus. The indigenous methods of weather forecasting may be broadly classified into two categories, viz., (i) observational methods and (ii) theoretical methods, astrological factors and planetary factors (Lishk 1983).

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D. Angchok

History of Tibetan Astro-Science

Thousands of years ago, Tibetans had their own rudimentary system of astro-science even before the first king of Tibet, Nyatri Tsanpo (127 BCE), which was used for various predictive purposes. To make this rudimentary astro-science more precise, richer and mathematical in nature, different astrological texts were brought and translated into Tibetan from the neighbouring countries of China and India (Tashi, T.,2 personal communication, 1999). Broadly, there are three major systems in Tibetan astro-science namely dkar rtsis, yangchar (dbyangs’char) and jung rtsis (‘byung rtsis). These were brought from India and are concerned with planetary motions, planetary positions and divination respectively. Yangchar is not taught to common people because of its violent chakra and ability to harm others. The jung rtsis system is also mainly used for divination purposes. Though great damage was caused to Tibetan astro-science during China’s Cultural Revolution in the 1960s, and many of its important and rare astrological texts were destroyed, oral transmission helped to save and restore some of this precious knowledge (ibid.). The Tibetan system of astro-science is also widely practised in India in Ladakh, in Lahul and Spiti (Himachal Pradesh), Arunachal Pradesh and some parts of Sikkim as well as in Bhutan, all areas where Tibetan culture prevails (Angchok 2000).

5.3

Brief Introduction of the Tibetan Almanac

The Tibetan calendar (called loto or lotho) varies substantially in relation to the solar year. Unlike the Western (Gregorian) calendar, the Tibetan calendar is an uneasy compromise between the lunar and solar cycles. The year is divided into lunar months, each corresponding to one lunar cycle that is the time between the sun and the moon coinciding in longitude (new moon) and again coinciding a month later (Henning 1980). The calendar dates sometimes appear to be omitted (chad) and sometimes the same date is repeated twice (lhag). When an occasion is due on a missing date, the convention is to celebrate it on the preceding one; when due on a duplicated date, it is celebrated on the second one. Then full moon and new moon always occur on the 15th and 30th of the month, except when these dates are omitted dates (Rabgyas and Osmaston 1994). Tibetan astrology (rtsis) is based not only on the usual 12 signs or houses of the zodiac (khyim, Table 5.1) but also on the 27 constellations or moon-houses (skar ma, Table 5.2) arranged in a similar belt around the sky. The moon will be approximately

2

Head of Department of Ayurveda, Tibetan Institute of Higher Studies, Sarnath.

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Table 5.1 The twelve signs of the zodiac (khyim) S.No 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Latin Aries Taurus Gemini Cancer Leo Virgo Libra Scorpio Sagittarius Capricorn Aquarius Pisces

English Ram Bulls Twins Crab Lion Virgin Scales Scorpion Archer Goat Water bearer Fish

Tibetan Lug gLang ‘khrig.pa Karkata sen.ge bu.mo Srang sDig.pa gZhu Chus.rin Pung.pa Nya

Meaning of Tibetan Sheep Bull Twins Crab Lion Girl Scales Scorpion Bow arch Sea-animal Pot Fish

Twelve animals Rat/Mouse Bull Tiger Hare Dragon Snake Horse Sheep Monkey Bird Dog Pig

Table 5.2 The twenty-seven constellations or star goddesses (sKar.ma) 1. bran 2. sMin.drug 3. birzi 4. nalbo-go 5. lag 6. rGal.sTod 7. rGal.sMad

8. wa 9. rT.pa or chu 10. rTau 11. khra (tha or bo) 12. chama (bya.ma) 13. chang (byang) 14. sari

Table 5.3 The twenty-seven constellations under their respective elements (khams) and characteristics (‘Bung.ba)

Earth (solid) 3 13 16 18 20 21 23

15. saga 16. lagsor 17. dugu (or non) 18. tusog (gru.sog) 19. chu.sTod 20. chu.sMad 21. chu.zhin

Water (liquid) 5 8 17 19 22 25

22. dro.sByin 23. mon.br 24. thrumstod 25. thrumsmud 26. sho-za 27. tha-kar

Fire (heat) 1 2 7 9 10 15 24

Air (gas) 4 6 11 12 14 26 27

Numbers as in Table 5.2.

in conjunction with a different constellation on each successive day (zla skar), while the sun will remain in one for a fortnight (nyin skar). Thus, each day is characterized in four ways: (i) the date of the Tibetan month (tshes); (ii) the day of the week (zhag); (iii) the moon constellation (zla skar); (iv) the sun constellation (nyin skar). Each skar ma has the temperament of one of the four elements (‘byung ba): earth, air, fire and water (Table 5.3) (Rabgyas and Osmaston 1994).

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5.4

D. Angchok

Mathematical Theories of Weather Forecasting

The theoretical method of weather forecasting followed in Ladakh is based on skar ma as depicted in the lotho. Lotho is of two types i.e., Drupa and Tsepa. Astrologers follow a standardized procedure which is described below: 1. identify the skar ma of the day, given in the Lotho; 2. place the skar ma on the starting point of the chakra (1 is the starting point, see Fig. 5.1); 3. locate the position of Rohini Nakshatra (its position is 3, see Table 5.4); 4. start counting with the identified skar ma of the day as your base, from the starting point until the position of Rohini Nakshatra is reached i.e., 3 (on Fig. 5.1, place the identified skar ma on 1 and count till Rohini Nakshatra is reached). An illustration of the above-mentioned procedure is given below: • suppose the change of sun star nyin skar, or star of that day is 23; • place 23 on the starting point of the chakra i.e., 1 and proceed further in an ascending order until Rohini is reached: signs on chakra: Our calculation:

Fig. 5.1 Chakra

1 23

2 24

3 25

4 26

5 0

6 1

7 2

8 3

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Table 5.4 Sequential presentation of Nakshatra Division (NDs) along with their extents in the Zodiac Circle and alphabets of Nakshatra S. No. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26

Name of Nakshataras i.e., (NDs) Ashwini Bharani Kritika Rohini Mrigashira Ardra Punarvasu Psuhya Ashlesha Megha Purva Phalgune Uttara Phalguni Hasta Chitra Swati Nishaka Anuradha Jyeshtha Mula Purvashadha Uttarashadha Abigit Shravana Danishtta Shatabhishak Purva Bhadrapada Uttara Bhadrapada Revati

Extent of NDs in the Zodiac circle Aries Aries Taurus Taurus Taurus Gemini Gemini Cancer Cancer Leo Leo Virgo Virgo Libra Libra Scorpio Scorpio Scorpio Sagittarius Sagittarius Capricorn Capricorn Capricorn Capricorn Aquarius Aquarius Pisces Pisces

Alphabets of Nakshatras Chu, Che, Cho, La Li, Lu, Ly, Lo, A. E. AU, Aa, Ao, Va, V, Voo Vay, Vo, Ka, Ki Ku, Gha, Dha, Cha K, Ko, Ha, Hi Hu, Hay, Hoo Do, De, Doe Ma, Mi, Mu, May Mo, Ta, T, To Tay, Toe, Pa, Pe Pu, Sha, Na, Tha Pay, Po, Re, Ra Ro, Ray, Ta Ti Tu, Tay, To Na, Ni, Nu, Nay No, Ya, Ye, Yu Yay, Yoo, Ba, Bi Bu, Daha, Fa, Tha Bay, Jo, Ja, Ji Ju, J, Jo, Kha Khi, Khu, Khay, Kho Ga, Gi, Gu, Gay Go, Sa, So, Su Say, Se, Dha, Di Du, Tha, Jaha, Nya De, Dho, Cha, Chi

For the origin of Nakshatras or lunar mansions in early Indian astrology, see Howard D Jones (2018). Table 5.5 Chakra location and corresponding weather prediction

Location on chakra 0, 1, 7, 8, 14, 15, 21 2, 6, 9, 13, 16, 20, 22, 26 4, 11, 18, 24 3, 5, 10, 12, 17, 19, 23, 25

Corresponding prediction Heavy rain Little rain Rain with wind No rain

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Table 5.6 Presentation of days in a week along with the respective assigned numerals Day Numeral

Sunday 1

Monday 2

Table 5.7 Presentation of different elements along with their respective indications of rainfall

Tuesday 3

Element Earth Water Fire Air

Wednesday 4

Thursday 5

Friday 6

Saturday 0

Indication of rainfall Little rain Heavy rain No rain Rain with wind

i.e., according to our calculation the location of Rohini lies corresponding to 8 on the chakra, and the corresponding prediction is heavy rain (see Table 5.5). An alternative method of weather forecasting used in Ladakh also utilises the change of sun star but, in addition, the name of the place or area, for which the prediction is being made also plays an important role. The following are the procedures of this method accompanied with examples for each step: 1. identify the place or the area for which the prediction is to be made; 2. identify the name by which the place or the area is known and the first syllable or letter of the name: e.g. ‘Sa’ for Saboo; 3. locate ‘Sa’ in the chart given (see Table 5.4) and identify its serial number; 4. e.g., Sa lies at 23rd serial number corresponding to Shatabhishak Nakshatra; 5. identify the change of sun star from the Lotho; 6. suppose it is 24, 7. add (3) and (5), i.e., 23 + 24 = 47; 8. identify the numeral assigned to the day for which prediction is to be made by referring to the chart given for a week (see Table. 5.6), e.g., Monday = 2; 9. deduct (8) from (7), i.e., 47–2 = 45; 10. divide this numeral by total number of stars, i.e., 45 ÷ 27 = 1.66; 11. identify the numeral excluding the remainder, i.e., 1; 12. locate this numeral in the chakra made for different elements, i.e., earth, water, fire, and air (see Table 5.3); 13. interpret the result accordingly, i.e., as 1 lies in fire (see Table 5.3), then we can conclude that no rainfall will occur (Table 5.7).

5.5

Conclusion

Among the vast fields of Tibetan knowledge and learning, astro-science has an important place and role to play. Indian astrology has a significant influence over astronomical and astrological thought throughout the world and Tibetan astro-

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science has strong links with it. This knowledge system, however, receives little attention as an alternative system for weather predictions. A few scientific studies have been conducted in ancient astro-science, and almost all of them have reported encouraging and positive results (Angchok and Dubey 2006; Mishra 1998), implying that there seems to be great scope for studying ancient sciences, especially those with astro-disciplinary approaches. All the theories mentioned in the ancient astrological texts need extensive study to validate their reliability in the present context. Up to now, much scientific progress in this field has been blocked by a prejudiced attitude towards astrology and indigenous knowledge systems in general. The goal of more accurate and reliable weather forecasts can be achieved by integration of the available indigenous knowledge with modern scientific tools and techniques. Otherwise, there is a danger that future generations might hold us guilty of prejudices against ancient knowledge systems, prejudices that could make the difference between life and death for thousands of people (Mishra 1998). Without much effort, modern meteorological departments, with all the equipment, resources and patronage they command, should be able to verify the ancient theories propounded by our ancient scientists.

5.6

Suggestions for Future Research

In the present study, only the theoretical aspect – in this case limited to two mathematical equations – of rainfall prediction made by Tibetan astrological theories has been studied. There are, however, many other aspects or parameters that need to be studied in today’s context, such as forecasting the prospect for major crops in the coming years, forecasting drought, thunderstorm, snowfall, and cloudburst. In addition to agricultural and meteorological studies, other important and interesting areas include the use of astro-science in foretelling earthquakes and medical diagnosis, and these too need careful studies to test their validity and practical utility.

References Angchok D (2000) Traditional method of weather forecasting in Tibetan astrology and its relevance in today’s agriculture. Unpublished M.Sc. Thesis. Department of Extension Education, Banaras Hindu University Angchok D, Dubey VK (2006) Traditional method of rainfall prediction through almanacs in Ladakh. Indian J Tradit Knowl 5(1):145–150 Gyaltsan J (1997) The introduction of Buddhism in Ladakh. In: Osmaston H, Tsering N (eds) Recent research on Ladakh. Proceedings of the Sixth International Colloquium on Ladakh, Leh. University of Bristol, Bristol, pp 303–324 Henning E (1980) Foundation of the Tibetan calendar. Tibet News Rev 1(2):13–17 Jones HD (2018) The origin of the 28 nakshatras in early Indian astronomy and astrology. Indian J Hist Sci 53(3):317–324. https://insa.nic.in/writereaddata/UpLoadedFiles/IJHS/Vol53_3_2018__Art0 7.pdf

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Kumar Y, Raghuvanshi MS, Fatima K, Nain MS, Manhas JS, Namgyal D, Kanwar MS, Sofi M, Singh M, Angchuk S (2021) Impact assessment of weather-based agro-advisory services of Indus plain farming community under cold arid Ladakh. Mausam 72(4):897–904. https://doi. org/10.54302/mausam.v72i4.3556 Lishk SS (1983) General principles of ancient Indian meteorology. Astrol Mag 72(3):262–263 Mishra SK (1998) Indigenous method of weather forecasting in almanacs and its relevance in today’s agriculture. Unpublished PhD Thesis. Department of Extension Education, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi Pant S, Rinchen T, Butola JS (2018) Indigenous knowledge on bio-resources management for sustainable livelihood by the cold desert people, Trans-Himalaya, Ladakh, India. Indian J Nat Prod Resour 9(2):168–173 Petterssen S (1956) Weather analysis and forecasting: a textbook on synoptic meteorology. McGraw Hill Book Company, New York Rabgyas T, Osmaston HA (1994) The Tibetan calendar and astrology in the regulation of Zangskari agriculture. In: Crook J, Osmaston H (eds) Himalayan Buddhist villages. Environment, resources, society and religious life in Zangskar, Ladakh. University of Bristol, Bristol, pp 111–119 Raman BV (1983) Planetary influences on weather. Astrol Mag 72(8):615–620 Scofield B (2010) A History and test of planetary weather forecasting. Open Access Diss 221. https://doi.org/10.7275/1562218. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_ dissertations/221 Tuladhar S, Hussain A, Baig S, Ali A, Soheb M, Angchuk T, Dimri AP, Shrestha AB (2023) Climate change, water and agriculture linkages in the Upper Indus basin: a field study from Gilgit-Baltistan and Leh-Ladakh. Front Sustain Food Syst 6:1012363. https://doi.org/10.3389/ fsufs.2022.1012363

Chapter 6

The Contribution of Czech Researchers to the Botanical Survey of Ladakh Miroslav Dvorský, Klára Řeháková, Jitka Klimešová, and Jiří Doležal

Abstract Czech modern botanical research in Ladakh started with an expedition of the Czech Academy of Sciences in 1989. One of the scientists, Leoš Klimeš, became fond of the harsh and unique region of the Indian Trans-Himalaya and started to undertake yearly expeditions in 1997. He systematically explored most parts of Ladakh, working in particular on a comprehensive flora. Sadly, Klimeš went missing in Zangskar in 2007 and his task remained unfinished. Since 2008, research activities have been under the leadership of Jiří Doležal from the Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences. The chapter focuses on Eastern Ladakh and provides an overview on monitoring vegetation changes, climatic measurements, the nutrient status of high-altitude plants, plant interactions, factors limiting plants at extreme elevations, and soil microbial communities. Keywords Eastern Ladakh · Steppe vegetation · Life-forms · Clonality · Highaltitude vascular plants · Microbiotic soil crusts

6.1

General Features

Eastern Ladakh is situated in the westernmost part of the Tibetan Plateau and represents a unique biogeographic area, located at the interface between the humid outer Himalayan range and the cold deserts of Inner Tibet. This transitional zone is broad enough to host a specific flora, relatively rich in species restricted to the zone. Eastern Ladakh, which covers nearly 20,000 km2, includes a large part of the

M. Dvorský (✉) · K. Řeháková · J. Klimešová Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň, Czech Republic e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] J. Doležal Institute of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences, Třeboň, Czech Republic Department of Botany, University of South Bohemia, České Budějovice, Czech Republic e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023 B. Humbert-Droz et al. (eds.), Environmental Change and Development in Ladakh, Indian Trans-Himalaya, Advances in Asian Human-Environmental Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42494-6_6

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transitional zone, forming a naturally delimited area of the Trans-Himalaya. Most of the area lies above 4000 m, which is the elevation of the Indus River Valley, and many peaks far exceed 6000 m. Geomorphologically, the eastern part of Ladakh differs considerably from the western parts, which are dominated by narrow valleys as low as 2600 m. Due to much higher levels of precipitation, especially at higher elevations, the snow line is situated 1000 m lower than in the east. Consequently, the flora of Western Ladakh is distinct, and true Himalayan species are more prominent. On the other hand, a relatively flat terrain and vast high-altitude plateau are the characteristic features of Eastern Ladakh, with the snow line lying at 5800–6000 m. Eastern Ladakh represents a well-delimited area, climatically, biogeographically and culturally, and its flora is significantly different from that of neighbouring regions. As in Eastern Pamir or Tibet, plants in Eastern Ladakh are generally subjected to multiple stresses, such as low precipitation (c. 50–100 mm per year), extreme diurnal temperature fluctuation, strong winds, and solifluction at the higher elevations and salinity at the lower ones. Here vascular plants currently reach the highest known elevations on earth, being found as high as 6150 m (Dvorský et al. 2015). The flora of the whole of Ladakh is undoubtedly Holarctic, with a negligible proportion of paleo-tropical elements. Almost all-important families and higher taxonomical units of the Holarctic flora are well represented, except for exclusively woody taxa. Most species are elements of the Central Asian flora, with Tibetan elements being more prominent in the eastern part. Although the area is dominated by species with wide geographical ranges, many of them reach their distributional limits in Ladakh.

6.2

History of Botanical Exploration

While foreign explorers reached the Ladakh region at the beginning of the seventeenth century, the first botanical results were obtained by expeditions organised two centuries later. The most famous names include W. Moorcroft, H. Strachey, T. Thomson, J. L. Stewart, J. F. Duthie, and the Czech palaeontologist and naturalist F. Stoliczka. Difficulties with logistics and the common problems of obtaining permits from local authorities, however, severely restricted exploration and limited the number of plant specimens collected in these remote and wild areas. The results of this early period were summarised in the Flora of India (Hooker 1875–1897), up to now the only complete standard flora covering the whole Ladakh region. The species list of Ladakh flora was published by R.R. Stewart (1916–1917), who combined all earlier records and added his own data. Relatively few botanists and collectors visited Ladakh during the first half of the twentieth century. From the 1940s, Ladakh was closed to both foreign and Indian botanists for three decades. As a consequence, scientific activities of research institutions shifted to other areas.

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Botanical research was re-established after the area became partly accessible in the mid-1970s. The Swiss geobotanist Hans Hartmann visited various parts of Ladakh between 1974 and 1997 and contributed substantially to the knowledge of the vegetation of the area (Hartmann 2009). During the same period, Indian botanists began to explore areas along the main routes, resulting in the second flora of Ladakh by Kachroo et al. (1977), in Murti’s treatment of monocots (Murti 2001) and in papers focused on the area’s vegetation (Kala and Mathur 2002; Rawat and Adhikari 2005). In a recent attempt to publish a modern account of the flora of North-West India, Singh et al. (2002) compiled the first volume of the Flora of Jammu & Kashmir. A part of Ladakh is also covered by the Flora Karakorumensis (Dickoré 1995) and the Flora of Nanga Parbat (Dickoré and Nüsser 2000), which are largely based on specimens deposited in major European herbaria. Finally, some volumes of the comprehensive but still incomplete Flora of Pakistan (Nasir and Ali 1970) cover the border areas of Ladakh. Ongoing work on the electronic versions of the Flora of China1 and the Flora of Pakistan2 has opened new sources of information in English for a large number of overlapping species.

6.3

Flora of Ladakh

Despite the efforts of many naturalists, starting with great expeditions in the nineteenth century, there is as yet no precise checklist of any part of the Ladakh flora, let alone a standard exhaustive flora. As a consequence, even basic information such as the number of species in Ladakh remains unknown. This fact can be demonstrated by the discrepancy between individual estimates of numbers of vascular species, ranging from 611 (Kachroo et al. 1977) and 880 (Kachroo 1993) to 1250–1500 (Klimeš and Dickoré 2006). This causes serious difficulties not only for scientists but also for nature protection activities and for research on medicinal plants, a traditional topic of Indian botanists, due to its vital importance to the public. Realising the importance of a complete flora, Leoš Klimeš began a systematic floristic exploration of Ladakh in 1997. Although his task remained unfinished, the knowledge of Ladakh flora increased considerably thanks to his thorough and rigorous approach. Klimeš discovered many species not previously recorded in Ladakh and extended the checklist of species significantly. The checklist’s preliminary version can be found on the internet (Klimeš and Dickoré 2006). He also collected several specimens unknown to science, which were later described in cooperation with specialists (e.g. Ladakiella klimesii, Aphragmus ladakianus, Draba alshehbazii, Taraxacum candidatum, T. virgineum). Klimeš established a herbarium of Ladakh flora, which includes over 7600 specimens and represents the largest collection from the region in the world. All the data on species distribution

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http://flora.huh.harvard.edu/china/ http://www.tropicos.org/Project/Pakistan

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are kept in a database, which includes over 121,000 records pertaining to 1287 taxa at present. As the exploration remains unfinished, some areas, mainly in the western part of Ladakh, are poorly covered. This database, however, holds the latest and most complete information on species distribution in Ladakh. In order to make at least part of this dataset available to the public, the Czech team published a practical field guide to the flora of Ladakh (Dvorský et al. 2018). It contains descriptions, photos and distribution maps of the 500 most common species, i.e., nearly half the native flora of Ladakh.

6.4

Vegetation

The prevailing arid climate of Eastern Ladakh, with annual precipitation below 100 mm, is the key factor determining the general features of the vegetation, while the edaphic quality and the microclimate govern its local patterns (Rana et al. 2019). In general, vegetation is very sparse and formed predominantly of herb species and low-growing shrubs, which gives it its characteristic semi-desert aspect. Forests are typically absent from the area, although there are willow and poplar stands (often planted) along rivers and irrigation canals. Eight main vegetation types can be distinguished (Dvorský et al. 2011). Semi-deserts and steppes (Fig. 6.1) prevail in the whole area with an optimum at 4500–4900 m. In the most arid parts, usually at lower elevations, plant cover is poor,

Fig. 6.1 The most frequent vegetation types in Ladakh are semi-deserts and steppes: countryside around Tso Moriri lake, Eastern Ladakh, approximately 4600 m. (Photo: Miroslav Dvorský)

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20% at most and only consists of a few species. However, the cold steppe vegetation at higher elevations is richer in species. Typical representatives are drought-tolerant perennial species such as Oxytropis microphylla, Stipa caucasica, S. subsessiliflora, Krascheninnikovia pungens, Alyssum canescens and Tanacetum fruticulosum. The characteristic feature of shrub lands is the dominance of dwarf woody species, making them physiognomically different from other types of vegetation in the region. The most common and dominant species is a thorny shrub, Caragana versicolor, which reaches a height of 60 cm, accompanied by less common shrub species, such as Hippophaë tibetana, Ephedra gerardiana, Krascheninnikovia pungens and Myricaria germanica. Herbs are represented by the perennials Oxytropis tatarica, Elymus jacquemontii, E. schrenkianus, Potentilla bifurca and Stipa subsessiliflora, and annuals such as Polygonum molliaeforme and Artemisia macrocephala. The azonal vegetation of salt marshes is also common in extensive areas with highly saline substrates surrounding lakes, most of which have no outlet and contain brackish or salt water, or in areas with underground deposits of mineral salts and around mineral springs. Plant communities of these specific habitats consist of salt-tolerant species such as Puccinellia himalaica, Polygonum sibiricum, Carex moorcroftii, Blysmus compressus, Triglochin palustre or Glaux maritima. The vegetation cover as well as the productivity can be very high in such wetlands, depending on water availability. Alpine grasslands can be found mainly in narrow belts along streams and occur up to 5500 m. They represent a real contrast to otherwise barren land to be found only a little farther from the water source. The vegetation canopy is typically very dense due to dominant clonal species such as Kobresia royleana, K. schoenoides, K. pygmaea, Carex pseudofoetida or C. sagaensis, which stabilize the surface and control erosion. The species richness of alpine grasslands is the highest among all the vegetation types, with up to 33 species per plot (10 m × 10 m). Vegetation of alpine screes can be found at higher elevations on steep slopes and in boulder fields with an unstable substrate. Vegetation cover is usually poor but the dominant species have the ability to cope with frequent disturbances. Annuals are absent or rare, and hemicryptophytes prevail, e.g. Pleurospermum stellatum, Marmotitis rotundifolia, Elymus jacquemontii, Poa attenuata, Thylacospermum caespitosum, Potentilla pamirica, Oxytropis tatarica, Saussurea bracteata, S. gnaphalodes, Carex pseudofoetida, Rhodiola tibetica, Nepeta longibracteata or Delphinium brunonianum. Vegetation of the sub-nival zone occurs above 5300–5700 m and single plants occur even above 6000 m, although the ground may appear lifeless at first sight. However, after closer inspection, a surprising number of species can be discovered. The harsh conditions prevailing at this elevation favour the growth of cushion plants, typically including Thylacospermum caespitosum, Arenaria bryophylla and Draba altaica. Other frequent species are Poa attenuata, Potentilla pamirica, Saussurea gnaphalodes, Stellaria depressa, Saxifraga nanella and Astragalus confertus. The highest parts of the mountains are the least explored and new species may still be discovered here. This is the case of Ladakiella klimesii, collected by Klimeš in the

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periglacial zone of Chamser Kangri, which was described later and named in his honour. Vegetation of fresh-water bodies and areas with abundant water supply is not common as these habitats are rare in Eastern Ladakh. Species present in these areas include hydrophytes and hydrophilous species. Among perennials, clonal species prevail, e.g. Potamogeton amblyphyllus, Catabrosa aquatica, Ranunculus sarmentosus, R. trichophyllus, Puccinellia himalaica. The vegetation of animal resting places is also of rather limited extent in the study area and includes places where livestock gather and are stabled. Annual species typically prevail due to a high level of disturbance and the availability of high soil nutrient. The most abundant species are the annuals Chenopodium karoi, Microgynoecium tibeticum, Axyris prostrata, Smelowskia tibetica, Artemisia macrocephala and Microula tibetica. The hemicryptophytes Knorringia pamirica, Physochlaina praealta and Leymus secalinus are also common. Other synanthropic vegetation includes plant assemblages of weeds growing in arable fields up to 4700 m. Among cultivated species, the most widespread is barley, which is used for the production of the traditional tsampa (roasted barley flour) and chhang (a low-alcohol brew). At lower elevations, apricot trees are planted in nearly every village. Many of the trees are of remarkable age and size (Fig. 6.2). Other cultivated tree species include willows and poplars that are utilized in house construction.

Fig. 6.2 Apricot orchards can be found practically in every village at lower elevations: Sumur Village, Nubra Valley. (Photo: Miroslav Dvorský)

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Life-Forms

The modern concept of vascular plant life-forms was proposed by Raunkiaer (1907), and still represents a useful tool for the description and comparison of vegetation types in different regions of the earth without the need to determine the species. This concept is based on the location of hibernating or ‘estivating’ organs in relation to the soil surface. The six basic categories are phanerophytes (trees), chamaephytes (shrubs), hemicryptophytes (perennial herbs with buds near the surface), geophytes (herbaceous plants with an underground storage organ, e.g., bulbs), therophytes (annual herbs which survive unfavourable seasons in the form of seeds) and hydrophytes (water plants with buds protected in water). We can predict the life-form spectra for any type of climate and, conversely, from the information on the lifeforms represented we can deduce the prevailing climate. The spectrum of life-forms was assessed along the whole altitudinal gradient in Eastern Ladakh (Klimeš 2003). The results show that hemicryptophytes dominate (62.1%), followed by therophytes (22.3%), chamaephytes (5.4%) and geophytes (4.2%). This spectrum indicates prevailing desert-steppe and steppe vegetation. Phanerophytes (3.5%) and hydrophytes (1.7%) are relatively rare in the area. The diversity of life-forms declines with elevation (Fig. 6.3). Phanerophytes and hydrophytes occur up to 5150 m, therophytes decline gradually, geophytes and chamaephytes are constant up to 5800 m, although in low species numbers, and hemicryptophytes are the only life-form at extreme elevations. A similar pattern has been observed in other mountain regions of Central Asia, but, interestingly, therophytes are well represented in Ladakh and reach very high elevations. In the Hindukush, for example, therophytes grow up to 5000–5200 m, whereas they can be found even above 5800 m (Smelowskia tibetica) in Ladakh. On the other hand, this corresponds well with the high number of therophytes recorded in adjacent arid regions of Tibet, where Eastern Ladakh belongs geographically.

Fig. 6.3 Changes in life-form spectra along the altitudinal gradient in E. Ladakh. (From Klimeš 2003)

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Clonality

About 27% species of the flora of Eastern Ladakh are clonal. The proportion of clonal species, however, declines gradually with altitude, the highest elevations being inhabited exclusively by non-clonal species (Klimeš 2003). This is in contrast with earlier reports, which suggested that the proportion of clonal species increased with deteriorating conditions. The most likely explanation is that sites at extreme elevations are affected by periglacial processes or that the substrate is unstable (e.g., on scree slopes), which causes damage to the connections between the individual units of clonally-spreading plants. Moreover, the underground organs may have difficulty in penetrating the hard substrate or permafrost, which prevail in Eastern Ladakh. Therefore, non-clonal plants like those with a main taproot or pleiocorm with short underground branches are favoured under such conditions. Clonal species consist of two or more units connected physically and physiologically – these so-called ramets can potentially grow independently after separation. Clonal species can be divided into two groups according to the longevity of the functional connection between the ramets, namely splitters (e.g. plants with above-ground creeping stolons) and integrators (e.g. turf grasses or species with woody below-ground stolons). A question in current ecology is to determine which habitat conditions favour which strategy, specifically regarding access to resources (i.e., nutrients, water or light). Klimeš (2008) found that clonal species with a persistent connection between ramets (integrators) reach higher mean and maximum elevations than splitters, and prevail in nutrient-poor environments like semi-deserts, cold sandy steppes or sub-nival zones. Integrators also prefer habitats with a stable substrate and dense vegetation cover, typically found along stream banks. On the other hand, splitters prefer mesic habitats, saline sites and wetlands. This is consistent with the hypothesis that integrators should be favoured under stressful conditions, such as nutrient-poor habitats, whereas splitters are expected to prevail in more favourable environments with more nutrients and moderate climate. However, further analyses have revealed that most relationships between clonal integration and environmental factors can be explained by the phylogenetic relation of the species. This means that related species derive and share these specific traits from their common evolutionary history and that the adaptive value of either strategy is probably small. Klimešová et al. (2011) developed a system of 20 growth form categories for Ladakh species (Fig. 6.4). This approach, derived from the methodology for categorization of the Central European flora (Klimeš et al. 1997), is based on the traits related to the growth strategy, i.e., lateral spread, persistence at one spot and clonal propagation. The most abundant category in Eastern Ladakh is represented by non-clonal perennial species with a taproot and short below-ground branches (Arnebia euchroma type). This type prevails in steppes, Caragana shrubs and on scree slopes. Most abundant clonal species are those with very short epigeogenous rhizomes, such as turf graminoids (Festuca kashmiriana type) prevailing in wet Kobresia grasslands. The proportions of clonal types in the different vegetation

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Fig. 6.4 Classification scheme of growth forms of vascular plants of E. Ladakh. Numbers in brackets show the representation of respective growth-forms (%) from the total of 540 species recorded in the study area. (From Klimešová et al. 2011)

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types are similar, except for some clonal growth forms (Festuca kashmiriana and Poa tibetica types) which are overrepresented in steppes and salt marshes. Conversely, all short-lived non-clonal types are relatively underrepresented within these vegetation types. Generally, non-clonal annual and biennial plants are more frequent at lower elevations than non-clonal perennial plants having a taproot and belowground branches. In Ladakh, most clonal growth forms occur at middle elevations from 4500 to 5500 m. At the highest elevations, non-clonal cushion plants dominate (Thylacospermum caespitosum type).

6.7

Altitudinal Limit of Vascular Plants

The highest elevation of continuous vegetation in the world has been reported from the westernmost part of the Tibetan Plateau, at approx. 6000 m (Klimeš and Doležal 2010; Dvorský et al. 2015). This part of the Trans-Himalaya, i.e., the arid land north of the main Himalayan Range, provides the most suitable conditions for plant occurrence at extreme altitudes and hosts relatively diverse sub-nival flora (Fig. 6.5). The following factors facilitate its habitability. Firstly, a favourable geomorphology with gentle slopes of the plateau prevents serious erosion and substrate instability. Secondly, an arid climate (