Developments and Advances in Defense and Security: Proceedings of MICRADS 2022 9811976880, 9789811976889

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Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328

Álvaro Rocha Carlos Hernan Fajardo-Toro José María Riola   Editors

Developments and Advances in Defense and Security Proceedings of MICRADS 2022

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Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies Volume 328

Series Editors Robert J. Howlett, Bournemouth University and KES International, Shoreham-by-Sea, UK Lakhmi C. Jain, KES International, Shoreham-by-Sea, UK

The Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies book series encompasses the topics of knowledge, intelligence, innovation and sustainability. The aim of the series is to make available a platform for the publication of books on all aspects of single and multi-disciplinary research on these themes in order to make the latest results available in a readily-accessible form. Volumes on interdisciplinary research combining two or more of these areas is particularly sought. The series covers systems and paradigms that employ knowledge and intelligence in a broad sense. Its scope is systems having embedded knowledge and intelligence, which may be applied to the solution of world problems in industry, the environment and the community. It also focusses on the knowledge-transfer methodologies and innovation strategies employed to make this happen effectively. The combination of intelligent systems tools and a broad range of applications introduces a need for a synergy of disciplines from science, technology, business and the humanities. The series will include conference proceedings, edited collections, monographs, handbooks, reference books, and other relevant types of book in areas of science and technology where smart systems and technologies can offer innovative solutions. High quality content is an essential feature for all book proposals accepted for the series. It is expected that editors of all accepted volumes will ensure that contributions are subjected to an appropriate level of reviewing process and adhere to KES quality principles. Indexed by SCOPUS, EI Compendex, INSPEC, WTI Frankfurt eG, zbMATH, Japanese Science and Technology Agency (JST), SCImago, DBLP. All books published in the series are submitted for consideration in Web of Science.

Álvaro Rocha · Carlos Hernan Fajardo-Toro · José María Riola Editors

Developments and Advances in Defense and Security Proceedings of MICRADS 2022

Editors Álvaro Rocha ISEG—Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon, Portugal

Carlos Hernan Fajardo-Toro Escuela Superior de Administración Publica—ESAP Cali, Colombia

José María Riola Escuela Naval Almirante Padilla Cartagena, Colombia

ISSN 2190-3018 ISSN 2190-3026 (electronic) Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies ISBN 978-981-19-7688-9 ISBN 978-981-19-7689-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Preface

This book contains a selection of papers accepted for presentation and discussion at The 2022 Multidisciplinary International Conference of Research Applied to Defense and Security (MICRADS’22). This Conference had the support of Escuela Naval de Suboficiales ARC “Barranquilla,” Armada de Colombia, AISTI (Iberian Association for Information Systems and Technologies), and ITMA (Information and Technology Management Association). It took place in a hybrid format in Barranquilla, Colombia, between July 11 and 13, 2022. The 2022 Multidisciplinary International Conference of Research Applied to Defense and Security (MICRADS’22) is an international forum for researchers and practitioners to present and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, results, experiences, and concerns in the several perspectives of Defense and Security. The Program Committee of MICRADS’22 was composed of a multidisciplinary group of more than 200 experts from 39 countries around the world and those who are intimately concerned with Research Applied to Defense and Security. They have had the responsibility for evaluating, in a “double-blind review” process, the papers received for each of the main themes proposed for the Conference: (A) systems, communication, and defense; (B) strategy and political-administrative vision in defense; and (C) engineering and technologies applied to defense. MICRADS’22 received 97 contributions from 14 countries around the world. The papers accepted for presentation and discussion at the Conference are published by Springer (this book) and by RISTI and will be submitted for indexing by WoS, SCOPUS, DBLP, and/or Google Scholar, among others. We acknowledge all of those who contributed to the staging of MICRADS’22 (authors, committees, workshop organizers, and sponsors). We deeply appreciate their involvement and support that was crucial for the success of MICRADS’22. Barranquill, Colombia July 2022

Álvaro Rocha

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Contents

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Detection of Highly Energetic Materials Using Infrared Spectroscopy Coupled with Chemometrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . John R. Castro-Suarez, Omar Delgado-Guevara, Fredy Colpas, Annette M. Colón-Mercado, and Samuel P. Hernández-Rivera

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Platform for Interactive Audiovisual Productions and Generative Art Using Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Juan P. D‘Amato and Diana Karina Leon

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Feasibility Study of the Use of Petri Nets in the Verification of UML Diagrams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Larissa Vidal, Franck Benito, and José Eduardo Fernandes

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Maturity Model for Boards of Directors in Cyber Risk Governance. A Conceptual and Practical Proposal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jeimy J. Cano M.

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A Visual Graph Approach for Evaluating the Vulnerability of ENC Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gauthier Vigouroux, Pedro Merino Laso, Christophe Claramunt, and Nathalie Leidinger

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Centralized Management IoT Platform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . António Rodrigues

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Sweat as a Testing Analytical Fluid for Emotions and Stress Biomarkers Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cristina M. Cordas, M. João Nunes, Gabriel N. Valério, Alejandro Samhan-Arias, Ludwig Krippahl, José J. G. Moura, Gilda Santos, João P. Sousa, and Carlos Rouco

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Statistical Processing of Relationship Between Biomarkers and Disease Severity Caused by COVID-19 Infection-Delta Variant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Milazim Shabani, Adem Musliu, Bekim Mustafa, Naim Baftiu, and Betim Maloku Sustainable Development in Higher Education Curricula for Software Engineering Chairs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jenny León-Toro, Jorge Buele, Valeria Maricruz Camino-Morejón, and Manuel Ayala-Chauvin

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10 Evaluation of Digital Skills. Educating Middle School and High School Students on Cyber Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Lidice Haz, Jaime Moises Minchala Marquino, Yolanda Molineros, and Estefania Vargas 11 Higher Education Students Dropout Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Teresa Guarda, Oscar Barrionuevo, and José Avelino Victor 12 Use of Learning and Knowledge Technologies (LKT) to Dynamize the Learning of Analytic Geometry in High School Students . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Gabriela Acosta-Portilla, Javier Sánchez-Guerrero, Raúl Guillermo-Zambrano, and Andrés Haro-Velasteguí 13 Panorama of Peruvian Secondary Education Teachers Trained in ICT Use Before COVID-19 Pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Milton Gonzales-Macavilca and Maricielo Aguinaga-Villegas 14 Technological Context of Secondary Education Teachers in Peru Before E-teaching Due to COVID-19. Prepandemic Diagnosis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 Maricielo Aguinaga-Villegas and Milton Gonzales-Macavilca 15 Are VR and AR Really Viable in Military Education?: A Position Paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Mauro Ocaña, Andrea Luna, Valeria Yarad Jeada, Henry Cruz Carrillo, Fernando Alvear, and Marco Rosales 16 Comparative Evaluation of the Overall User Experience of Two MOOC Platforms: Coursera and OpenCampus . . . . . . . . . . . 179 Germania Rodríguez Morales, Ana Poma Gallegos, Pablo V. Torres-Carrión, and Samanta Cueva Carrión 17 Organisational Attraction in the Voluntary Military Recruitment in the Portuguese Armed Forces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 José Peres de Almeida and José Paulo Marques dos Santos

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18 The Role of a Chatbot Personality in the Attitude of Consumers Towards a Banking Brand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 Natalia Palomino and Francisco Arbaiza 19 Ship Synthesis Model for the Conceptual Design of a Riverine Logistic Support Ship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 David Ricardo Alvarado, Edison Flores, and Omar David Vasquez 20 Aeronautical Industry Development in Emerging Countries: Factors—A Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239 Anibal Jara-Olmedo, Danilo Chavez, Orlando Boiteux, and Mauricio Quisimalín 21 Public Procurement Challenges in the Portuguese Gendarmerie Force: The Division into Lots Regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 Paulo Aires, Luís Malheiro, and Edgar Bogas 22 Factors of Tax Culture Predicting the Compliance of the Tax Obligations of the Micro-enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263 Beatriz Baylon-Gonzales, Karina Vega-Rosales, and Ivan Iraola-Real 23 Tax Culture and Its Correlational Effect on the Payment of Real Estate Income Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 Beatriz Baylón-Gonzales, Karina Vega-Rosales, Geraldine Yarleque-Bayona, and Nathaly Curi-Condemayta 24 Development of a Portable Neutron Detection System for Security and Defense Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283 Luís Marques, Alberto Vale, and Pedro Vaz 25 Research of Air Measurement in Kosovo Power Plants A and B During Electricity Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Adem Musliu, Milazim Shabani, Naim Baftiu, and Betim Maloku 26 Toward Complete Social Integration of Armed Forces in the Face of the Current Disruptive Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 Manuel Antonio Fernández-Villacañas Marín and Juan José Morillas Guerrero 27 A Hybrid Model to Assist Military Planning Based on Weapons Targets Assignment Problem and Circuits Analogy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319 Raphael Corrêa Silva and Leonardo Antonio Monteiro Pessôa 28 Statistics and Management COVID-19 in Kosovo-Case Study Hospital of Ferizaj . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329 Milazim Shabani, Bekim Mustafa, and Naim Baftiu

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29 Maritime Strategy and Cooperative Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337 Oscar Barrionuevo, Teresa Guarda, and José Avelino Victor 30 The Future of Field Artillery Projectiles: New Technologies, Strengths and Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347 H. Gouveia and J. Borges Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359

About the Editors

Álvaro Rocha holds the title of Honorary Professor and holds a D.Sc. in Information Science, Ph.D. in Information Systems and Technologies, M.Sc. in Information Management, and B.C.s in Computer Science. He is Professor of Information Systems at the University of Lisbon—ISEG. He is also Vice-Chair of the IEEE Portugal Section Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society Chapter, and Editorin-Chief of both Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Management (JISEM) and Iberian Journal of Information Systems and Technologies (RISTI). Moreover, he has served as Vice-Chair of Experts for the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Program and as Expert at the COST—intergovernmental framework for European Cooperation in Science and Technology, at the European Commission’s Horizon Europe Program, at the Government of Italy’s Ministry of Universities and Research, at the Government of Latvia’s Ministry of Finance, at the Government of Mexico’s National Council of Science and Technology, at the Government of Polish’s National Science Centre, and at the Government of Cyprus’s Research and Innovation Foundation. Carlos Hernan Fajardo-Toro, Ph.D. in Computer Science, with training in administration and management of supply chains and logistics. He has experience as Research Teacher and Consultant in Colombia and Spain and teaching in quantitative, financial, operations and information systems areas. He researched in adaptive predictive models, expert systems, and data science, implementation of information systems and digitization and Industry 4.0. He has experience as Consultant in information system design, analysis and redefinition of processes, and analysis of logistics and operational systems. José María Riola, Ph.D. in Naval Architect, has worked in the El Pardo Hydrodynamic Model Basin and the construction of the vessels “Carrier Juan Carlos I,” the series of “Maritime Action Vessels” and the series of “F-110 Frigates,” among others. He has been Director of the Technology Watch and Prospective System of the Ministry of Defense of Spain and national representative in the European Defense

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Agency and in the Science and Technology Organization of NATO. He has been Teacher at the Higher Technical School of Naval Engineers of the Polytechnic University of Madrid for more than 25 years and is currently Teacher at the Naval School “Almirante Padilla” in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia.

Chapter 1

Detection of Highly Energetic Materials Using Infrared Spectroscopy Coupled with Chemometrics John R. Castro-Suarez , Omar Delgado-Guevara, Fredy Colpas , Annette M. Colón-Mercado , and Samuel P. Hernández-Rivera Abstract The detection of highly energetic materials (HEMs), also called explosives, is a topic of interest worldwide. Many lives and property are lost every year due to the inappropriate use of these substances. In this research, an analytical methodology based on infrared (IR) vibrational spectroscopy is used to detect explosives. Transmittance mode spectra of TNT, DNT, PETN, and RDX were used as reference spectra. Nineteen solid samples of unknown composition were analyzed with this methodology. Quantitative comparative analyses based on the spectral correlation index were performed. Unsupervised multivariate analyses such as PCA were performed. The results show that IR spectroscopy is helpful for identifying if a sample has any HEMs.

1.1 Introduction An explosive is a substance or device that releases a large amount of energy extremely rapidly when subjected to heat, impact, friction, or detonation. The sudden release of energy causes incredible increases in temperature and pressure so that all materials present are converted into compressed hot gases. These gases are at very high temperatures and pressure, they expand rapidly and thus initiate a pressure wave, called a “shock wave” in the surrounding medium [1, 2].

J. R. Castro-Suarez (B) Universidad del Sinú, Cartagena, Colombia e-mail: [email protected] O. Delgado-Guevara Fundación Universitaria Antonio de Arévalo, Unitectar, Cartagena, Colombia F. Colpas Universidad de Cartagena, Campus San Pablo, Cartagena, Colombia A. M. Colón-Mercado · S. P. Hernández-Rivera Center for Chemical Sensors, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR 00680, USA © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_1

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Explosives detection in the field is a critical analytical challenge in law enforcement and environmental applications. With the increasing use of explosives by terrorist groups and individuals, law enforcement and security personnel are faced with the challenge of identifying explosives hidden in baggage, mail, vehicles, aircraft, and people, among other things [3]. Explosive residues have a high probative value. They can provide information on the chemical composition of the explosive material and thus indicate whether it is commercial or homemade, domestic or foreign, or associated with a particular terrorist or criminal organization [4]. The most recognizable undetonated explosive material at a post-blast scene is usually that which remains after a partial detonation, which could be caused by a failure of the booster or detonator or by some inhomogeneity in the main charge [5]. Partial detonations leave undetonated residues in the form of large deposits that are easier to identify. However, even when a full or complete detonation has occurred, undetonated explosive residues [6] are still found due to incomplete combustion, although to a minor degree, of the explosive. It is essential to locate debris containing explosive residues during the examination of the scene of the attack. Mobile, hand-held explosives detectors, like those used to detect hidden bombs, can be extremely useful in identifying such residues [3, 7]. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopic (FTIR) techniques have several advantages over other analytical techniques that make them optimal for identifying a wide range of explosives and related compounds. Some of these advantages are the possibility of analyzing samples with different physical states (solids, liquids, or gases) or composition (organic and inorganic); both techniques can be used without sample preparation or with minimal sample preparation. Small explosive particles can be easily analyzed if the spectrometers include microscope-based systems, stand-off systems, or portable spectrometers, and sample analysis can be achieved in a few minutes (or even seconds). Furthermore, these techniques are robust, reproducible, and reliable, with minimal instrument maintenance [1–8]. In recent years, vibrational spectroscopic techniques such as Raman spectroscopy and infrared spectroscopy have been frequently used to provide the necessary countermeasures for analyzing active ingredients in pharmaceuticals and highly energetic materials (HEMs). As described above, IR and Raman spectroscopy can detect molecular vibrations of the atoms of a compound, so it is commonly called vibrational spectroscopy. With this information, the characterization of molecules of a given chemical substance can be achieved. Infrared spectroscopy (IRS) in the mid-infrared (MIR) region has played an important role in national defense applications. Some contributions that have used IRS to analyze HEMs are Pacheco-Londoño et al. [9] built a remote active IR detection system by coupling a bench-top Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) interferometer to a gold lens and an array detector for the detection of trace amounts of TNT and RDX explosives on reflective surfaces at the range of 1.0–3.7 m. Suter et al. [10] present a study of the spectral and angular dependence of the mid-infrared light scattered from surfaces coated with residues of explosives (TNT, RDX, and tetryl) detected at

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2 m. An external cavity quantum cascade laser was used to provide tunable illumination between 1250 and 1428 cm−1 . Kumar and co-workers [11] measured the diffuse reflection spectra of solid samples such as explosives (TNT, RDX, PETN), fertilizers (ammonium nitrate, urea), and paints (automotive and military) at a distance of 5 m using a mid-infrared supercontinuum light source with an average output power of 3.9 W. This investigation used infrared vibrational spectroscopy to detect HEMs in solid samples obtained in the field. Spectral similarity using spectral correlation and multivariate analysis was carried out. The results show that using PAC and HQI algorithms, an investigator can determine whether a given solid sample has HEMs present.

1.2 Materials and Methods 1.2.1 Reagents The reagents used in this investigation include standard solids (or references) of highenergy materials and solvents. 2,4-dinitrotoluene (DNT) and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) were purchased from Chemservice, Inc. (West Chester, PA). 1,3,3,5trinitroperhydro-1,3,5-triazine or hexahydrotrinitrotriazine (RDX) and pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) were synthesized on a micro-scale in the laboratory, following the procedure described by Ledgard [12]. Nineteen solid samples of unknown composition obtained from suspected explosive improvised devices (IEDs) were analyzed with FTIR. The samples were labeled as M1, up to M19.

1.2.2 Spectral Acquisition Infrared vibrational spectra of 4 solid reference explosives and 19 solid samples were acquired by attenuated total reflectance infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) using the ALPHA-Platinum FT-IR Spectrometer instrument. Infrared spectra were recorded in the spectral range of 400–4000 cm−1 . All spectra were taken at 64 scans and 4 cm−1 resolution. Figure 1.1, showing the experimental setup used in this investigation, summarizes the steps performed: step A1, sample preparation; step A2, sample preparation of standard HEMs; step B, recording of vibrational spectra and step C, spectral analysis using spectral similarity.

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Fig. 1.1 Experimental setup for the detection of HEMs in different solid samples

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1.3 Results and Discussion 1.3.1 Spectral Profile of Reference HEMs To identify the presence of HEMs in the analyzed samples, IR spectra of the 4 most common explosives present in IEDs were obtained. Figure 1.2 shows the spectra of the HEMs 2,4,6-TNT, 2,4-DNT, PETN, and RDX. The spectra were acquired by placing a small amount of powdered solid in the sample holder of the equipment, as illustrated in Fig. 1.1. To obtain the IR spectra of HEMs, the spectrum of air was taken as background. The spectra are shown in transmittance units in the spectral range of 400–2000 cm−1 . The spectra were saved in OPUS format, in absorbance units. These spectra were manipulated then using the opus program OPUS™ and Microsoft® Excel® . Among the most important MIR vibrational bands observed in Fig. 1.2 are those for TNT appearing at 1024 cm−1 assigned to deformation of the methyl group (– CH3 ), the signal at 1350 cm−1 and tentatively assigned to symmetric stretching of the nitro groups (–NO2 ), and 1551 cm−1 assigned to asymmetric stretching of the nitro groups (–NO2 ) [13]. For 2,4-DNT (Fig. 1.2), those appearing at 835 cm−1 and 913 cm−1 (–NO2 group deformations), 1347 cm−1 assigned to the symmetric stretching of the nitro (–NO2 ) groups, and 1513 cm−1 assigned to the asymmetric stretching of the nitro (–NO2 ) groups [14]. For PETN (Fig. 1.2), distinctive MIR bands are at 1038 cm−1 (–NO2 rocking), 1272 cm−1 (–ONO2 rocking), 1285 cm−1 (–NO2 stretching), and 1306 cm−1 (– NO2 rocking) [15]. In RDX (Fig. 1.2), some important vibrations were detected at 997 cm−1 (N–N stretching), 1220 cm−1 (C–N stretching), 1270 cm−1 (symmetric NO2 stretching), 1325 cm−1 (symmetric N–N stretching), and 1570 cm−1 (asymmetric NO2 stretching) [16].

1.3.2 IR Spectra of Solid HEMS Samples Nineteen solid samples collected from improvised explosive devices were analyzed by MIR vibrational spectroscopy. Figures 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and 1.7 show the spectra recorded from these samples. These samples were labeled as M1, M2, up to M19. As can be evidenced in Figs. 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and 1.7, some solid samples of unknown composition analyzed with IR spectroscopy show vibrational signals very identical to certain reference explosives shown in Fig. 1.2. In Figs. 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and 1.7, the HEM spectra of references are shown in the orange color. Making a simple visual comparative qualitative analysis of the 19 solid samples, we could say 14 samples have explosive substances. The explosives present in these samples correspond mainly to secondary explosives. It can be observed that the samples show MIR signals 1347 and 1513 cm−1 corresponding to the nitro groups of nitro-aromatic explosives such as TNT. It can also be observed that the samples

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Fig. 1.2 MIR vibrational spectra of HEMs of references HEMs: TNT, DNT, PETN, and RDX, in transmittance mode. The spectral range measured was: 400–2000 cm−1

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Fig. 1.6 IR vibrational spectra of solid samples of unknown composition M13-M16.Spectra were collected in transmittance mode. The spectral range measured was: 400–2000 cm−1

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vectors and the test (or sample) spectra [17]. The HQI value is between 0 and 1.0, where 1.0 indicates perfect similarity and 0 indicates poor similarity. The algorithm is shown in Eq. (1.1).     Ai − A Bi − B  r=  2  2  Ai − A Bi − B

(1.1)

where A indicates the library spectrum (reference) and B indicates a test spectrum of the samples (unknown sample), Ai and Bi are the ith intensity of the A and B spectra, and A and B are the average intensity of the A and B spectra, respectively. For the

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calculation of r the first derivative (polynomial of order 2, 17 points) of spectra A and B were used. In the identification of an unknown spectrum, an HQI value greater than 0.9 is valid to say that it has a determined substance. However, values higher than 0.8 are also accepted for very specific cases. Table 1.1 shows the HQI values for the 19 samples, where it can be seen that 7 samples coincide with values higher than 0.9 (see bold in Table 1.1). Thus, 3 samples (M3, M7 and M11) contain TNT, 1 samples (M6) contain PETN, and 3 samples (M2, M9, and M15) contain RDX. The samples M13, M16, and M18 have HQI equal to 0.82 (shown as bold in Table 1.1), so their spectra are very similar to PETN as can be seen in Figs. 1.6 and 1.7. On the other hand, the samples M8, M10, and M14 have HQI values around 0.72, showing a similarity with RDX. This can be seen in Figs. 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6. Table 1.1 HQI values of solid samples were calculated from the spectral correlation Sample

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1.3.4 Principal Component Analysis of Standards and Samples There are many algorithms for multivariate analysis. However, the most commonly used to identify, quantify, and classify data sets are those that make use of principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), discriminant analysis (DA), and their combined use: PLS-DA and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). PCA transforms a set of variables into a smaller number of variables (called factors, rank, principal components) that contain most of the information (variance) of the initial data set [18]. PCA is a method for investigating variation within a multivariate data set. The largest source of variation in the data set is called principal component #1 (PC1). The second source of variation in the data, which is independent of PC1, is called PC2. The principal components form a set of orthogonal vectors. For each of the data points, the projection of the data point onto the vector P1 or P2 is called a score value. The plots of score values for different principal components, usually P1 versus P2, are called score plots. The score plot provides important information about how the different samples are related to each other. PLS Toolbox version 6.5 under the SOLO platform was used to analyze all the spectroscopic data and develop the multivariate models to group the samples by spectral similarity. PCA runs were made with the raw data and using different preprocessing treatments. The preprocessing treatments used were: smoothing, SNVstandard normal variation, mean center (MC), SNV + MC, SNV + 1st derivate, SNV + 2nd derivate, MC + 1st derivate, MC + 2nd derivative, MSC-multiplicative scattering correction. The algorithm used to carryout smoothing and derivatives was that of Savitzky-Golay (every 11, 17, 21, and 31 points). Spectral data were not necessary to eliminate during PCS runs. Figure 1.8 shows the scores plots for the PCA obtained after making different models. It shows the first two principal components from spectral data using the ALPHA-Platinum FT-IR Spectrometer with a Globar source The best results achieved for PCA model (illustrated in Fig. 1.8) were using SNV + MC as preprocessing. In the PCA model (Fig. 1.8), three main groups can be observed. The first group (dotted green ellipse) is associated with spectra having molecular vibrations similar to RDX. In this group are sic samples: M2, M8, M9, M10, M14, and M15. The second group (dotted orange ellipse) is associated with spectra that have molecular vibrations similar to TNT. In this group are three samples: M7, M7, and M11. Additionally, the third group (dotted blue ellipse) is associated with spectra that have molecular vibrations similar to PETN. In this group are four samples: M3, M13, M16, and M18. Overall, 13 solid samples of unknown composition may be related to contain HEMs. In the PCA model presented in Fig. 1.8, we can see that PC1 and PC2 fail to separate the spectra of DNT and TNT. This is because DNT and TNT have very similar chemical structures. However, a third principal component PC3 is able to differentiate between DNT and TNT sample, as can be seen in Fig. 1.9.

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Fig. 1.8 PCA model for MIR spectra of PETN, RDX, DNT, and TNT from references and samples of unknown composition. The preprocessing steps applied were SNV + MC. 2D score plot using PC1 and PC2. The 95% confidence level for clustering is represented by the red dotted line

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1.4 Conclusion A methodology based on ATR-FTIR vibrational infrared spectroscopy was used. As references materials, standards of the four most common substances used in

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improvised explosive devices such as TNT, DNT, PETN, and RDX were used. Nineteen solid samples were analyzed using ATR-FTIR. Most of the samples found IR band signals characteristic of the nitro groups in HEMs. Seven samples had HQI values greater than 0.9, so we could say that these samples contained explosive substances. However, when multivariate analysis is used, 13 solid samples of unknown composition may be associated with containing HEMs.

References 1. Lopez-Lopez, M., Garcia-Ruiz, C.: Infrared Raman spectroscopy techniques applied to identification explosives. TrAC Trends Anal. Chem. 54, 36–44 (2014) 2. Akhavan, J.: The chemistry explosives. R. Soc. Chem. (2004) 3. Yinon, J.: Field detection monitoring explosives. TrAC Trends Anal. Chem. 21(4), 292–301 (2002) 4. Zonderman, J.: Beyond the Crime Lab: The New Science of Investigation. Wiley (1998) 5. Kelleher, J.D.: Explosives residue: origin and distribution. Forensic Sci. Commun. 4. (2002). Available online http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/lab/forensic-sciencecommunications/fsc/april2 002/kelleher.htm 6. Yallop, H.J.: Explosion Investigation. Forensic Science Society and Scottish Academic Press Ltd. (1980) 7. Abdul-Karim, N., Blackman, C.S., Gill, P.P., Wingstedt, E.M.M., Reif, B.A.P.: Post-blast explosive residue–a review of formation and dispersion theories and experimental research. RSC Adv. 4(97), 54354–54371 (2014) 8. Villanueva-López, V., Colón-Mercado, A.M., Vázquez-Vélez, K.M., Castro-Suarez, J.R., Rivera, L.C., Hernández-Rivera, S.P.: Trace detection of c-4 on aluminum using mid-infrared reflection–absorption quantum cascade laser spectroscopy. In: Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, pp. 227–239. Springer, Singapore (2022) 9. Pacheco-Londoño, L.C., Ortiz-Rivera, W., Primera-Pedrozo, O.M., Hernández-Rivera, S.P.: Vibrational spectroscopy standoff detection of explosives. Anal. Bioanal. Chem. 395(2), 323– 335 (2009) 10. Suter, J.D., Bernacki, B., Phillips, M.C.: Spectral and angular dependence of mid-infrared diffuse scattering from explosives residues for standoff detection using external cavity quantum cascade lasers. Appl. Phys. B. 108(4), 965–974 (2012) 11. Kumar, M., Islam, M. N., Terry, F.L., Freeman, M.J., Chan, A., Neelakandan, M., Manzur, T.: Stand-off detection of solid targets with diffuse reflection spectroscopy using a high-power mid-infrared supercontinuum source. Appl. Optics 51(15), 2794–2807 (2012) 12. Ledgard, J.: The Preparatory Manual of Explosives, 3rd edn. (2007) 13. Clarkson, J., Smith, W.E., Batchelder, D.N., Smith, D.A., Coats, A. M.: A Theoretical study of the structure and vibrations of 2,4,6-trinitrotolune. J. Mol. Struct. 648(3), 203–214 (2003) 14. Liu, G.F., Ma, X.J., Ma, S.H., Zhao, H.W., Ma, M.W., Ge, M., Wang, W.F.: Identification of explosives 2, 4-dnt and 2, 6-dnt using terahertz time-domain spectroscopy. Chin J. Chem. 26(7), 1257–1261 (2008) 15. Perger, W.F., Zhao, J., Winey, J.M., Gupta, Y.M.: First-principles study of pentaerythritol tetranitrate single crystals under high pressure: Vibrational properties. Chem. Phys. Lett. 428(4– 6), 394–399 (2006) 16. Prasad, R.L., Prasad, R., Bhar, G.C., Thakur, S.N.: Photoacoustic spectra and modes of vibration of TNT and RDX at CO2 laser wavelengths. Spectrochim Acta Part A: Mol. Biomol. Spectrosc. 58(14), 3093–3102 (2002)

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17. Gao, Q., Liu, Y., Li, H., Chen, H., Chai, Y., Lu, F.: Comparison of several chemometric methods of libraries and classifiers for the analysis of expired drugs based on Raman spectra. J. Pharm. Biomed. Anal. 94, 58–64 (2014) 18. Beebe, K.R., Pell, R.J., Seasholtz, M.B.: Chemometrics: A Practical Guide. Wiley, New York (1998)

Chapter 2

Platform for Interactive Audiovisual Productions and Generative Art Using Processing Juan P. D‘Amato and Diana Karina Leon

Abstract Through computers, artists have found a way to enhance their production, discovering new ways for communicating their productions and devising new forms of expression. Being able to make the most of these facilities requires interdisciplinary groups that seek to enhance creativity and at the same time generate new forms of creation. In particular, an artist takes advantage of the different tools available, from sound to draws in order to provide immersive experiences. This paper presents a platform that implements image and audio processing algorithms, to facilitate the artist’s task, in what is called generative art. With the platform it is possible to create animated digital images in real time that adapt to the sound’ properties and that can be used in live audiovisual performances.

2.1 Introduction There is a generalized conception that computers have been designed for a specific area of competence, especially technical ones. Another common assumption is that the application of technology corresponds to companies which only respond to the economic demands and for maximizing profits, disconnected from the needs of society. The programming activities are usually related to work, specially to the different sectors of the software industry. Most universities and technology-related education centers orient students in such a way, that the only recognized objective is to find a job opportunity is a company. Producing labor for large technology companies then becomes the only purpose [1]. At the same time, as computers become more user-friendly and easier to use the distance between their use and their operation increases. The effort to make access to computers friendly has turned programs into black boxes, which transforms us J. P. D‘Amato (B) · D. K. Leon PLADEMA—UNCPBA Institute, Campus Argentino, Tandil, Argentina e-mail: [email protected] J. P. D‘Amato National Scientific and Technical Research Council, Tandil, Argentina © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_2

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into mere users, putting us in a passive position, dependent on what the programs do [2]. When the programming activities are directed to the aesthetic field—a field that is not defined by its utility, nor by a practical, utilitarian purpose or with a specific functionality—it generates an expansion of the possibilities. Art is such space, open to the exploration of new concepts and symbolic forms without a formal purpose. In this sense and as presented in [3], the alliance between art and programming is indeed strategic: it allows the developer to experiment with their ideas and with the code that structures them. Contemporary art, in its interdisciplinarity, is a soft vehicle to develop these ideas. In this way, what is produced is a digital gap between those who “speak the language of machines” and those who do not, generating a new form of communication [4]. For artists, computers are black boxes that sometimes condition him in what he can do, so that he is limited in his possibilities or to the point of using applications in which he does what the program says, without having any idea about what is really happening behind the screen. Combining different skills provides new insights into increasingly complex and diverse problems, enriching the involved disciplines [5]. The approach to technology from the experimentation has two main motivations; the first has to do with thinking about the code in all its richness and its limitations; and the second, with dismantling the logic of the technological “black boxes.” According to Solaas [2], if the industrial society was based on the management of matter, the digital society is based on the management of information. For this reason, artists agree that it is important to experiment with computational algorithms, which are the most effective tools when it comes to manipulating this new matter. This work presents a tool for creating digital images, co-created with artists. For the development, the processing platform has been used. This library is based on JAVA that is one of the most used by the artistic-technological environment. This library has a large amount of functionality to generate images, as well as to handling devices such as cameras, microphones among others. This tool consists of two modules: one, created for sound analysis, and the other, for generating images using sound features as input. The image generation module consists of different strategies that generate drawings and animations. These strategies have parameters can be controlled by the user for generating multiple variants productions. This work is structured as follows. The following section reviews the history of work in the area. The third section presents the architecture of the solution and the technologies used. The fourth and fifth section describes how technology and different artistic movements were combined. Finally, some conclusions are presented.

2.2 Background We are part of a globalized society, where local customs coexist with globalized ones. In these technological societies, it becomes extremely important to bring programming closer to all areas, in which a critical and experimental sense is only found in humanities and/or art ones. With technology, it is possible to understand art and

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technique in new ways of experimentation and enhancing the capabilities of creation [6]. Generative art allows us to combine the power of these two regimes [7]. The technological history of computer art is inextricably linked to the militaryindustrial complex and research centers, as well as to consumer culture and its associated technologies. Since its development in the 1940s, the computer was a machine designed primarily to solve scientific experiments and complex calculation operations. In the 1960s, the first scientists began to create computer graphics only for experimental purpose. Most of them worked in large companies or at the university level and therefore had access to the first computers. The curiosity to discover what the machine could do led to the first drawings printed using a plotter. In Lewitt’s own words, “the idea becomes the machine that makes art,” paraphrasing Le Corbusier in “the house is the machine in which one lives.” The ideas for this artist are not the product of an original genius [8]) but rules or sets of rules from which the work is generated. Related to this, different artistic movements arose that have taken advantage of the capabilities of computers for art. • Rule-Based Art: Dada, Fluxus, and conceptual art movements emphasize formal instructions, concept, event, and audience participation, using formal instructions to create an artifice resulting from a game between randomness and control. This idea that rules are a process for creating art has a clear connection to algorithms, which form the basis of all software and computer operation—processing of formal instructions that achieve a “result” in a finite number of steps [9]. • Kinetic art: Kinetic art is an artistic trend based on the aesthetics of movement. In the pictorial field, it is usually based on optical illusions, retinal vibration and the impossibility of the human eye to simultaneously look at two violently contrasted colored surfaces and the interactive-reactive character. This interactivity introduces interaction with the users [10]. • Conceptual art: When thinking about the background of the materialization of audiovisual productions and generative art, it is necessary to mention the figure of Sol Lewitt as one of the greatest references, despite never having used a computer. This artist is considered one of the founders of conceptual art. In conceptual art, the idea or concept is the central element of the work [11].

2.2.1 Software Languages for Artistic Activities In 1990, Casey Reas and Ben Fry, from a research group at the MIT Media Lab’s Aesthetics + Computation group, led by John Maeda, developed a programming environment specifically designed for artists and designers that they called processing [12]. They initially created this toolkit to serve as a software sketchbook and to teach the fundamentals of computer programming. But lately, this environment was adopted worldwide as an ad hoc standard for professional digital art. Casey Reas, beyond being one of the founders of this environment, is a referent in the field of code-generated art. The main advantage of processing is that it is open source, and

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the breadth of its community shown in Fig. 2.2 is one of his works exhibited at Maharam Digital Projects (Fig. 2.1). Another software used in prominent visual arts and design centers is openFrameworks [13]. Its first version was developed by Zachary Lieberman in August 2005. It is currently maintained by Zachary Lieberman, Theo Watson and Arturo Castro together with the online community. The main difference with processing is that it is written in C++, which makes it more stable, robust and consumes less processor resources. The second difference is that it is considerably more difficult to program and compile. A related project made in openFrameworks which is a hybrid open source programming environment for live coding, programming for interactive design development, audiovisual performances and interactive art teaching called Gamuza [14]. Due to its link to the visual arts and design, processing and all other languages, essentially handles visual and spatial elements. For that reason, the first step is to understand the necessary operations for representing data in such space that is lately render on an output screen. Data is generally represented by polygons, points or colors contented in a CANVAS. This representation will be accessed constantly using graphical functions, for drawing, transform, or color change.

Fig. 2.1 (izq) Composición creada por Casey Reas (der): Composición creada por Ryoji Ikeda

Fig. 2.2 Components—Macro

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2.3 Proposal Our main purpose was to develop a toolkit for generating dynamically images from music for being used in artistic presentations. For this reason, it was necessary to manipulate sound streams (either coming from a file or from a console), extract some features (intensity, volume, rhythm, etc.), and map them interactively to visual primitives following aesthetic principles. In general, the artist interacts with a console or MDI controller and the rendering is made on another screen. Based on this idea, a distributed architecture was proposed, composed of a component for obtaining and capturing sound (called Disual Sender), and a module responsible for visualization (called Disual Drawer). The proposed architecture has the architecture presented in Fig. 2.2. For communicating the components, an open source control (OSC)-based message scheme is used. In real time, the Disual Sender component takes sound as input, analyzes it in real time and then sends it via OSC messages to the Disual Drawer component. Draw receives these messages and stores that information in a data vector. The Disual Sender component is installed on the computer that will be connected to the console. The Minim and OSC libraries are used. First, with Minim, the sound analysis is done, and then this information is sent to the Disual Drawer component through OSC [15] messages. Minim is an audio library that uses the JavaSound API. It is used for sound analysis and to be able to use the frequency spectrum information. This is achieved by an FFT object. The Disual Drawer is the main component and the most complex. It oversees receiving the OSC messages with the information about the sound and then, with this information, being able to draw. It saves that information in vector format, which is then taken by the different render presets or sub-modules. These presets will be detailed in the next section.

2.3.1 Rendering Module Details To manipulate sound data harmonically, it is necessary to analyze it and split into different rhythmic components. For this decomposition, the fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used. Each rhythm component is associated with one or more different graphical transformations which are called presets. These presets can represent a static base component such as a background color, or even images. The greatest potential of processing is that it can dynamically apply filters or transformations in real time. These transformations can be applied to the canvas at any time during image production. The most common operations are mirror horizontal, mirror vertical, shift left, shift right, shift up, among others. These transformations are simple effects but they achieve a good visual impact. They are also implemented efficiently.

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Fig. 2.3 Moving Harmon samples

The Disual Drawer is implemented as a pipeline that invokes each of the presets in order, structured in a hierarchy of objects. Each preset has the possibility to draw on the canvas, altering the existing content and taking parameters from the sound. Each of the basic transformations are also implemented as an object. Other more complex transformations use their own internal structures, such as polylines or polygons (Fig. 2.3). In the constructor method, a particular name is assigned to each instance. The main method for rendering is the draw. The Disual Drawer loops constantly calling the corresponding draw methods of each preset when they are activated. Each preset is represented by an abstract general class and each sub class implements a particular rendering behavior that interacts on a CANVAS using processing. Different presets used will be described below. The artist can manipulate the different parameters of each artist, such as color, geometry, palettes among others.

2.3.2 Communication Protocol To achieve sound transmission between different modules, the OSC or Open Sound Control protocol is used. This protocol was especially designed for the interconnection of electronic musical instruments, synthesizers and computers through LAN networks. It was implemented using UDP and TCP-IP, and it was adopted for many for sound manipulation applications like pure data, CSound; thanks to its versatility and possibilities. OSC has low latency, supports multicasting, and handles connections as URLs addresses. The structure of a package is shown in Fig. 2.4. It is primarily text oriented as it is intended for MIDI synthesizers. For sound manipulation, the Minim library is used, which is an audio library that uses the JavaSound API. The integration of audio to the platform through this library is done in a very simple way. From this library, the mainly functions used are:

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Fig. 2.4 OSC message structure

• AudioPlayer: mono and stereo playback of files • AudioInput: mono and stereo input monitoring. This would be the one used at the time of the performance, since it takes the sound in real time. • FFT: it is the sound analysis algorithm set to generate a frequency spectrum [16]. • MidiBus: it provides an easy way to access and interact with installed MIDI system resources, in this case, for communication between the MIDI controller and the drawing component. It is specially designed to be used with Processing.

2.4 Experiments and Discussions The use of processing as a digital art tool is not new, but the way to organize content to achieve rich interactive representations is. A traditional programmer can organize all the components in a distributed architecture that communicate seamlessly. On the other hand, to create a nice and abstract representation requires a lot of parameterization work. To achieve this, it is necessary to change parameters in an easy way that can map to certain features of the sound. At the same time, it is important to understand the different artistic movements and how they can be represented in a visual and coherent way. This task should be done by both, the developer and the artist. What we also propose in this work is a systematized way to instantiate the platform. This means: • Choose a certain artist, study certain characteristics of shapes or colors that represent him • Implement it as a preset (simple or complex). The result is a catalog of presets that represent one or more abstract aspects, which are available for use as a library. The process for the creation of different presets consists of four stages: artist selection, analysis of works, classification, and identification of patterns and finally programming.

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Fig. 2.5 Newman samples and their corresponding black and white preset

In the first place, several artists were chosen based on an aesthetic criterion and that they were somehow related to mathematics. It is important to note that this step does not correspond to a semantic or figurative logic, since it would not make sense to try to find a computational logic that generates them. The simple preset type is based, generally on abstract works of art, and a series of steps are developed to generate the algorithms that allow representing something related to those works that inspire a relationship with certain sounds. For example, one of the chosen art was from Newman, who used simple lines in his representations. For this case, a particular instance of a preset is created following his principles. Then, the distance between each line is chosen as main feature and associated to the speed of the music, thus creating a dynamic composition (Fig. 2.5).

2.4.1 Software Tools for the Artist The best way for artists to integrate the sound with different visual representation presets is using a virtual console, like the one used in a musical composition. This console has different components, such as buttons or sliders, that allow them to combine the sound inputs with the corresponding visual outputs. This console can be previously modified by the composer himself (Fig. 2.6). There can be an infinite number of presets, but for each performance the idea is to have a maximum of 16 available presets that can be easily manipulated. During the interpretation, the artist can add other facilities such as exporting to video or similar. The way of working in general is to carry out a previous analysis of the sounds that the musician is going to use and from that composition the composition of the image is generated.

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Fig. 2.6 Control console

2.4.2 Platform Instantiation For using the platform, the artist first has to choose the type of music that interests him and devise, based on his catalog of presets, which ones are more suited to be presented. Later, during the presentation and once the sound has started, the artist enables or disables the different transformations, being able to vary some parameter using the console. Generally, at the beginning, only a clean background is shown. When the sound starts, a first preset is activated. Certain transformations are activated, like horizontally displacement. As far as the presentation goes on, some presets are activated and accumulated on the Canvas. Figure 8 shows some screenshots of different moments of the obtained representation using Preset_Moving_Harmon as baseline (Fig. 2.7).

2.5 Conclusions In this work, a tool based on processing for generating images combined with sound in real time was presented. One of the main challenges was to link two worlds that generally work separately. On the one hand, the capacity for abstraction that technical training requires and, on the other, simply being able to experiment, with a critical and speculative sense, focusing on contemporary art. For this reason, different parameters combination were evaluated, not only thinking about the most efficient way to do

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Fig. 2.7 Imagen Presets Activos + Mirror Horizontal + Shift Up

it—as is usually the case in the field of engineering—but also in the process and in the aesthetic reflections. On the other hand, providing a software tool designed for artists that can convert programmatically functions to visual representations. Finally, as these algorithms are both sound and user dependent, the result of composing colors and shapes are never the same, giving each time a great set of new productions and experiments, even after using the same presets. Also, it is important to point out music should be carefully selected to get coherent and aesthetical renderings. As future works, the idea is to incorporate more presets –many of which have already been experimented with but were not included in this work. And also, it would be important is to add new devices support, such as smartphones, what leads to multiple user interactions.

References 1. Flusser, V.: El universo de las imágenes técnicas. Elogio de la superficialidad. Online on: https:// cajanegraeditora.com.ar/libros/el-universo-de-las-imagenes-tecnicas (1985) 2. Solaas, L.: Autómatas creadores: los sistemas generativos en el cruce del arte y la tecnología. Online: https://solaas.medium.com/ (2018) 3. Mentasti, J.: Pensar entre Estética y Política, según Rancière. X Jornadas de Investigación en Filosofía, agosto de 2015, Ensenada, Argentina (2015) 4. Rushkoff, D.: Program or Be Programmed: Ten Commands for a Digital Age. Soft Skull (2013) 5. D’Amato, J.P., Recondo, C.M.: Nuevos genios-emprendedores: Itinerario y trayectorias de excelencia educativa universitaria, Revista Comunicar. https://doi.org/10.3916/C64-2020-07 (2020)

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6. Kozak, C.: Tecnopoéticas argentinas. Archivo blando de arte y tecnología. Caja Negra (2012) 7. Galanter, P.: What is Generative Art? Complexity theory as a context for art theory International Conference on Generative Art. Milano. Online: http://www.philipgalanter.com/downloads/ga2 003_paper.pdf (2003) 8. Goldsmith, K.: Escritura no-creativa. Gestionando el lenguaje en la era digital (2011) 9. Alonso, R.: Elogio de la Low Tech.Essay for 4x4: Beyond Photoshop with Code. Golan Levin and Collaborators. http://www.flong.com/texts/essays/essay_4x4/ (2015) 10. Fishwick, P.A.: Aesthetic Computing (2006) 11. Campbell, J.: Delusions of dialogue: control and choice in interactive art. WebSite: http://lau rence.com.ar/artes/comun/Dialogos%20ilusorios.pdf (2000) 12. Processing. WebSite: https://processing.org/ (2022) 13. OpenFrameWorks. WebSite: https://openframeworks.cc/ (2022) 14. GAmuza. Laboratorio de Luz. GAmuza. https://laboluz.webs.upv.es/projects/gamuza/ (2013) 15. Fraietta, A.: Protocol open sound control: constraints and limitations. In: International Conference on New Musical Interfaces for Music Expression (2008) 16. Settel, Z., Lippe, C.: Real-Time musical applications using FFT-based resynthesis. Online: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247343587_Real-time_musical_applications_ using_the_FFT-based_resynthesis (2014)

Chapter 3

Feasibility Study of the Use of Petri Nets in the Verification of UML Diagrams Larissa Vidal, Franck Benito, and José Eduardo Fernandes

Abstract The UML is the standard language used in the systems modelling, and it describes the structure and the behaviour of the software. Petri net is a type of bipartite and oriented graph that enables the modelling, analysis, simulation, and control of discrete event systems. Many authors mapping the UML diagrams in a Petri net model, enabling an analysis to improve the software architecture. This paper presents the research to support the realization of an analysis model from a UML diagram mapping into a Petri net. The purpose of the research was to verify which are the UML diagrams and which types of Petri nets are used together.

3.1 Introduction The computational systems can solve problems, facilitate operations, and automate processes. Nowadays, they are present in different areas and in different ways. Software modelling allows visualizing the system structure before its development. With the UML diagrams, it is possible to understand how the behaviour will be and which are the system’s characteristics [1]. In this way, software development comes more easily and organized. By the fact that the diagrams describe the behaviour or characteristics of the software, it is important that they are developed correctly. However, it is very common that mistakes occur while developing the UML diagrams. These mistakes can result L. Vidal (B) Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, 5300-252 Bragança, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] F. Benito Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná, 85892-000 Santa Helena, PR, Brasil e-mail: [email protected] J. E. Fernandes Research Centre in Digitalization and Intelligent Robotics (CeDRI), Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253 Bragança, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_3

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in problems developing the software, which can cause rework, because the system must rebuild to correct the flaws that occur due to the inadequate development of the modelling. The UML diagrams are fourteen, divided into structural diagrams and behavioural diagrams. However, it is not required to use all diagrams to model the software; in general, it is used in some of them. Among the existing diagrams, there is a strong relationship between the sequence diagrams, use case, and class diagram. All the objects existing in a sequence diagram belong to classes present in the class diagram. Furthermore, it is possible to use the sequence diagram to express the iterations that occur in the use case diagrams [2]. The Petri net is a formal mathematical model able to obtain accurate results because the net provides an accurate analysis of the models besides possibly the graphical visualization of the process [3]. The UML is a standard language used in systems modelling, while the Petri net has a principal characteristic of mathematical formalism, making possible accurate results. Many of the authors use the Petri net to support the designers in improvement on software architecture of the system, mapping the UML diagrams in a Petri net model. Based on this, it was realized the research to verify which are UML diagrams and which are the types of Petri net used together.

3.2 UML and Petri Nets This chapter will present the necessary theoretical references to understand the paper. The chapter is divided in two sections: Sect. 3.2.1 refers to principal characteristics of UML and Sect. 3.2.2 refers to principal characteristics of Petri net.

3.2.1 Unified Modelling Language (UML) According to [1], software modelling consists of producing models that could explain the behaviour or characteristics of software or a software system. In the UML, a model is graphically represented by diagrams. A diagram provides a view of a part of the reality described by the model. There are diagrams that express which users use which functionalities, and there are the diagrams that present the system structure, nonetheless, without specifying a concrete implementation. There are also diagrams that demonstrate the allowed and prohibited process [4]. UML is composed of fourteen diagrams and these diagrams are classified into structural diagrams and behavioural diagrams. The structural diagrams are: class diagram, object diagram, package diagram, composite structure diagram, component diagram, deployment diagram, and profile diagram. The behavioural diagrams are: use case diagram, state machine diagram, activity diagram, and interaction

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diagram (sequence diagram, communication diagram, interaction overview diagram, and timing diagram).

3.2.2 Petri Nets A net is a tuple of three elements N = (P, T, F) such that P and T are finite disjoint sets of places and transitions, respectively, and F is a flow relationship F ⊆ (P × T ) ∪ (T × P) and the association of this, is a weight function F → N+ [5]. For a node x (place or transition), the pre-set •x is a set {y|(y, x) ∈ F} and the post-set x• is defined in a similar way. An marking M of a net is a multiset of places (P), it means M : P → N [6]. A marked net is a tuple of two elements M N = (N , M0 ) that is composed by a finite net N = (P, T, F) and a initial marking M0 [7]. We say a transition t is able by a marking M if •t ≤ M. Therefore, a transition t ∈ T can be fired, taking to a marking M  = M − •t + t•. Denoted by M[t > M  ][8]. According to [3], a Petri net represents processes in dynamic systems in which there is a relationship of concurrency, parallelism, and informational synchronization. Also, mathematical formalism is one of the main points of the Petri net. Due to its formalism, it provides an accurate analysis of models to verify structural and behavioural properties. Another aspect is to enable the graphical visualization of the processes and easy communication between the interested parties. It is possible sum up the advantages of Petri net through the follow considerations [8]: • Able to describe a partial order between various events, which provides flexibility. • States and events are demonstrated explicitly. • With an only tool family, perform the specification, modelling, analysis, performance evaluation, and implementation. • Easy integration of hierarchical levels of control once the unique tools family is used in these different levels of hierarchical structure. • It is possible to describe the synchronization in a precise and formal way, which is essential to achieve the necessary operational safety. The extension of Petri nets is used to model complex systems. It allows the view of dynamic systems (the flow and data control), providing a graph notation to places, transitions and their relationships and determines the elements graphics subscriptions [9]. Some of extension of Petri net are: • High-level Petri nets [9] • Generalized stochastic Petri nets [10, 11] • Queuing Petri nets [12]

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• Coloured Petri nets [8, 13] • Time Petri nets [14] • Workflow Petri nets [15].

3.3 UML-Petri Nets Mappings The model transformation is the process of the generation of a new model from another model. In general, it is possible to say that model transformation consists of a transformation rule collection, which are clear specifications of the way how a model can be used for creating another one [16]. Still, according to [16], the set of transformation rules which describes how a model in source language can be transformed in a destiny model language is a transformation definition. Mapping UML diagrams to an analysis model from a Petri net allows the verification of the diagram, and it may be possible to validate the diagram and verify the existence of errors in its construction. From that, a research was realized to sustain the utilization of the mapping of UML diagrams in a model of Petri net. This research will identify which UML diagrams were mapped and which Petri net was used for the mapping process. To perform the research, the keywords “UML” and “Petri Net” were used in the Google Scholar search in main computational bases areas like, for example, ACM and IEEE. The research results were inserted in a table with the following fields: author or authors, year, UML diagrams used in the paper, and the Petri net used, as can be seen in Figs. 3.1 and 3.2. Through the research, it was possible to identify that the most diagram used together with the Petri net is the sequence diagram and next the state machine diagram. It was also possible to verify that the net more used is the coloured Petri net. In the performed research, a total of 28 papers were collected since the year of 2009. From the 28 collected papers, it was possible to identify the types of UML diagrams and Petri nets used in the mappings: • Activities diagram: the paper of the authors Lasota and Karatkevich [17] realizes the mapping of this diagram in a coloured Petri net represents all the actions and states in a Petri net. The relation between action and task in the activity diagram is modelled with arcs between the places and transitions corresponding to the Petri net. The paper of the authors Nabeel et al [18] realized the mapping of this diagram in a stochastic Petri net with the aim of evaluating the system performance. The paper of the authors Bedini et al. [19] realized the mapping of this diagram in a classic Petri net using the Eclipse QVT software. This software uses an imperative language requesting first consulting the original model elements that will be mapped and then describing how they must be viewed in the output model. Rábová [20] mapped an activity diagram in a workflow Petri net using the real model process and your objects as documents. Niu and Wang [21] proposed

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Fig. 3.1 Subtitle of articles 1–20

Fig. 3.2 Subtitle of articles 21–28

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an approach of hybrid modelling based on UML and coloured Petri net. The approach integrates the qualities of the UML and the coloured Petri net, avoiding “deadlock” and allowing the formal verification. Dechsupa et al. [22] mapped this diagram in a coloured Petri net using transformation rules and validating the properties of the model obtained in CPN using the framework developed by them. Requeno and Bernardi [23] proposed an approach of activity diagrams mapping to a stochastic Petri net with the aim to predict the application behaviour. Use case diagrams: the authors Koci and Janousek [24] proposed an approach that has an objective to combine the advantages of an intuitive approach to the modelling of UML systems with the precise specification of Petri nets requirements. Class diagram: Silva et al. [25], proposed an approach comparing a semi-formal modelling using UML. They modelled the diagrams to Petri nets to realize analysis with another procedure that uses the method of goal-oriented requirements engineer (GORE) represented by KAOS diagrams. That also can be converted into Petri nets. The authors Zhu and Sun [26] proposed a mapping approach between UML and coloured Petri net, creating a transition for each iterative class of the diagram, creating a place, and assigning a set of colours for each class associated or aggregated. They used an activity diagram to create an arc between the transition and the place. Collaboration diagram: In 2020, Hong-liang [27] proposed an approach of mapping CPN to a UML model with the basis of rules mapping from CPN to UML. The authors Kerkouche et al. [28] proposed an approach of mapping of collaboration and state machines diagrams to a coloured Petri net with to obtain a model able to realize automatic analysis and simulation. Components diagram: Cortellessa et al. [29] used the bi-directional transformation of models to map components diagram, state machine and sequences in analysis models of generalized stochastic Petri nets (GSPN) and vice versa. State machine diagram: the authors André et al. [30] proposed an approach of mapping this diagram in a coloured Petri net, to allow the formal verification of the diagram. In 2018, Noulamo et al. [31] developed an algorithm that mapped this diagram in a coloured Petri net to validate the diagram. In 2010, Jabri et al. [32] mapped this diagram in a Petri net to verify the behaviour of the modelled system on the UML diagram. In the year of 2012, Mirzaeian et al. [33] proposed an approach where they collected all of the diagram states and built a coloured Petri net from this. Alhroob and Yousef [34] proposed an approach that also uses all states of this diagram to realize the mapping to a high-level Petri net. Sequence diagram: Baidada et al. [35] proposed an approach that consists of generating and collecting the correspondents’ traits of different use cases to filter and analyse using the coloured Petri net to extract a sequence diagram. The paper of Pourali [36], in the year of 2020, mapped the UML sequence diagram in a coloured Petri net using the CPN tools software, converting each component of sender and receiver of the message and the messages between them to a Petri net. Soares [37], in 2017, proposed an approach also using the CPN Tools to model a sequence diagram in a coloured Petri net. The author implements the

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transformation rules on Epsilon Transformation Language (ETL), using the most relevant resources of the sequence diagrams for mapping the net. Shailesh et al. [38], modelled this diagram in a generalized stochastic Petri net implementing the rules of modelling using an approach based in a metamodel and Atlas Transformation Language (ATL). Hosseinzadeh-Mokarram et al. [39] modelling this diagram in a coloured Petri net to verify the confiability of the software system, using a dependence fragments graph. In 2019, the authors Vua et al. [40] developed 12 general rules to realize the mapping of this diagram in a queuing Petri net. Gómez et al. [41] used a new technique of model transformation, model to model (M2M), for the mapping of a sequence diagram in a coloured Petri net to simulate the system and find design errors in the initial phase of the developed system. The authors Baidada et al. [42], in 2018, proposed an approach to obtain a sequence diagram from a coloured Petri net. Staines [43] defined and explained the relationship between a sequence diagram and a normal Petri net, using this approach to map this diagram in a Petri net. These relations are exemplified in Fig. 3.3, each row corresponds to a UML diagram and each column corresponds to a type of Petri net. Each number inserted in relation diagram and net is the ID of the papers that in the other spreadsheet tab is being exemplify the paper with your authors, year, used diagram and net used, as is present in Figs. 3.1 and 3.2. When looking for the first row at the first column of the table presented in Fig. 3.3, it is possible to note the paper with ID 8 used the activities diagram and the classic Petri net. Figure 3.1 shows that this paper of ID 8 has the authors Francesco Bedini, Ralph Maschotta, Alexander Wichmann, and Armin Zimmermann, and the year of paper publication is 2019.

Fig. 3.3 Relation diagrams, nets and subtitles of the acronyms used in Figs. 3.1 and 3.2

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3.4 Conclusion The performed research verified that the most used diagrams for the mapping in a Petri net are the sequence diagrams and state machine diagrams and, the most used net is the coloured Petri net. Therefore, we chose the sequence diagram and use case diagram to perform the mapping in a classical Petri net and coloured in order to generate an analysis model of the diagrams. The choice of the use case diagram was by the fact of existence a relation between it and the sequence diagram, being it possible to use the sequence diagram to express the iterations that occur in the use case diagram. From this analysis, it will be possible to also verify the classes diagram since the objects presented in the sequence diagram belong to the classes presented on the class diagram. The coloured Petri net is the combination between the Petri net theory and the functional programming language to solve the cases in which it is necessary to represent the processes that are similar but are different. It is the most used net because of your abstraction power. In this way, the coloured net can better interpret the sequence of events that occurs in the sequence diagrams while the classic Petri net has some limitations. From this, it is interesting to realize the mapping using the two nets to compare both approaches and mapping processes. The next step is realizing the mapping of the diagrams to the classical and coloured Petri net and analysing the net to validate the diagrams. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT, Portugal) for financial support by national funds FCT/MCTES to CeDRI (UIDB/05757/2020).

References 1. Vargas, T.C.S.: A história da UML e seus diagramas. Revista Odontologia Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, pp. 265–274 (2006) 2. Guedes, G: UML 2, Novatec (2011) 3. Rezende, L.P.: WorkFlow net Possibilística aplicada aos Sistemas de Gerenciamento de Processos de Negócios Flexíveis. Master dissertation, Uberlândia—MG (2017) 4. Seidl, M., Scholz, M., Huemer, C., Kappel, G.: UML Classroom—An Introduction to ObjectOriented Modeling. Springer (2012) 5. Reisig, W.: Petri Nets—An Introduction. Springer (1985) 6. Khomenko, V., Heljanko, K., Koutny, M.: Parallelisation of the petri net unfolding algorithm (2002) 7. Khomenko, V., Heljanko K., Koutny, M.: Towards an efficient algorithm for unfolding Petri nets (2001) 8. Cardoso, J., Valette, R.: Redes de Petri. UFSC Publisher (1997) 9. High-level Petri Nets—Concepts, Definitions and Graphical Notation. Final Draft International Standard (2000) 10. Francês, C.R.L.: Introdução às Redes de Petri. Universidade Federal do Pará—UFPA (2003)

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11. Teixeira, M.: Avaliação de Desempenho de Web Services através de Redes de Petri Estocásticas. Master dissertation. Universidade de Pernambuco, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia da Computação (2009) 12. Van-Doc, V. et al.: Formal transformation from UML sequence diagrams to queuing Petri nets. In: Advancing Technology Industrialization Through Intelligent Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques (2019) 13. Jensen, K.: Coloured Petri Nets (1997) 14. Silveira, F.: Modelo de simulação computacional para análise da qualidade de serviço de uma solução de integração de reserva de viagens utilizando redes de petri temporizadas. Master dissertation, Universidade Regional do Noroeste do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (2017) 15. Aalst, W.V.: The application of Petri nets to workflow management. J. Circ. Syst. Comput. 8, 21–66 (1998) 16. Kleppe, A., Warmer, J., Bast, W.: MDA Explained: The Model Driven Architecture—Practice and Promise. Addison Wesley, p. 44 (2003) 17. Lasota, A., Karatkevich, A.: Modeling of production processes using UML and Petri nets, institute of computer engineering and electronics. University of Zielona Góra (2009) 18. Nabeel, M., Anwar, Z., Ahsan, A.: Performance analysis of software maintenance process using stochastic Petri Nets. Global J. Comput. Sci. Theory Res. 01–13 (2018) 19. Bedini, F., Maschotta, R., Wichmann, A., Zimmermann, A.: Towards automated fUML model verification with Petri Nets. In: Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on ModelDriven Engineering and Software Development (MODELSWARD 2019), pp: 298–306 (2019) 20. Rábová, I.: Using UML and Petri Nets for visualization of business document flow. In: ACTA Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, vol. LX (2012) 21. Niu, X., Wang, Z.: A smart home context-aware model based on UML and colored Petri Net. Int. J. Smart Home 10(1), 101–114 (2016) 22. Dechsupa, C., Vatanawood, W., Thongtak, A.: Compositional formal verification for business process models with heterogeneous notations using colored Petri Net. In: Proceedings of the International Multi Conference of Engineers and Computer Scientists (2019) 23. Requeno, J.I., Merseguer, J., Bernardi, S.: Performance analysis of apache storm applications using stochastic Petri Nets. In: IEEE International Conference on Information Reuse and Integration (IRI) (2017) 24. Kocí, R., Jonousek, V.: Specification of requirements using unified modeling language and Petri Nets. Int. J. Adv. Softw. 10 (2017) 25. Silva, J.M., Salmon, A.Z.O., Foyo, P.M.G.D., Silva, J.R.: Requirements engineering at a glance: comparing gore and UML methods in the design of automated systems. XXII Congresso Brasileiro de Automática, João Pessoa (2018) 26. Zhu, Q., Sun, Y.: Research on modeling of equipment supporting command automation system based on colored petri net. J. Phys. (2021) 27. Hong-liang, C.: The verification method of maintainability indexes of equipment based on UML. J. Phys. Conf. Ser. (2020) 28. Kerkouche, E., Chaoui, A., Labbani, O., Bourennane, E.B.: A UML and colored Petri Nets integrated modeling and analysis approach using graph transformation. J. Object Technol. (2010) 29. Cortellessa, V., Eramo, R., Tucci, M.: From software architecture to analysis models and back: Model-driven refactoring aimed at availability improvement. Inf. Softw. Technol. (2020) 30. André, E., Benmoussa, M., Choppy, C.: Translating UML state machines to coloured Petri Nets using Acceleo: a report. In: 3rd International Workshop on Engineering Safety and Security Systems (2014) 31. Noulamo, T., Tanyi, E., Nkenlifack, M., Lienou, J.P., Djimeli, A.: Formalization method of the UML statechart by transformation toward Petri Nets. IAENG Int. J. Comput. Sci. (2018) 32. Jabri, S., Koursi, E. M. E., Bourdeaud’huy, T., Lemaire, E.: European railway traffic management system validation using UML/Petri nets modelling strategy. 113–128 (2010) 33. Mirzaeian, E., Babazadeh, M., Mojaveri, S. G., Motameni H.: A new approach to object oriented software simulation based on UML statechart and colored Petri Net. Int. J. Model. Optim. 2(3) (2012)

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34. Alhroob, A., Yousef, N.: Transforming UML state machine diagram to high level petri net using genetic algorithm. Lect. Notes Softw. Eng. 2(3) (2014) 35. Baidada, C., Bouziane, E.M., Jakimi, A.: A new approach for recovering high-level sequence diagrams from object-oriented applications using Petri Nets. In: Second International Conference on Intelligent Computing in Data Sciences (2018) 36. Pourali, A.: Evaluating the availability of a mobile payment model in e-commerce using the colored Petri net. J. Manage. Account. Stud. (2020) 37. Soares, J.A.C.: Automatic model transformation from UML sequence diagrams to coloured Petri Nets. In: Integrated Master’s in informatics and Computer Engineering—Faculdade de Engenharia Universidade do Porto (2017) 38. Shailesh, T., Nayak, A., Prasad, D.: An UML based performance evaluation of real-time systems using timed Petri Net. Computers 2020 (2020) 39. Hosseinzadeh-Mokarram, A., Isazadeh, A., Izadkhah, H.: Early reliability assessment of component-based software system using colored petri net. Turk. J. Electr. Eng. Comput. Sci. 2681–2696 (2019) 40. Vua, V.D., Nguyen, T.B., Huynh, Q.T.: Formal transformation from UML sequence diagrams to queueing petri nets. In: Advancing Technology Industrialization Through Intelligent Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques (2019) 41. Gómez, A., Rodríguez, R. J., Cambronero, M.E., Valero, V.: Profiling the publish/subscribe paradigm for automated analysis using colored Petri nets. Softw. Syst. Model. 2973–3003 (2019) 42. Baidada, C., Mahi, B. E., Jakimi, A.: Towards the reverse engineering of UML sequence diagrams for multithreaded java software. Math. Nat. Sci: 44–50 (2018) 43. Staines, T.S.: Transforming UML sequence diagrams into petri nets. J. Commun. Comput. 10(1), 72–81 (2013) 44. Object Management Group: Unified Modeling Language 2.5.1 (2017)

Chapter 4

Maturity Model for Boards of Directors in Cyber Risk Governance. A Conceptual and Practical Proposal Jeimy J. Cano M.

Abstract Cyber risk is a novel risk for today’s boards. Addressing the dynamics of this systemic, emerging and disruptive risk requires high-level management bodies to leave the comfort zone of good practices and reports of risk managers, to discomfort their previous knowledge and certainties of corporate risk management and move forward in the conquest of the instability and uncertainty of a more digital and technologically modified society. In this sense, a maturity model for boards of directors in the governance of cyber risk is presented as a conceptual and practical proposal to generate proactive and anticipatory capabilities of its members in the face of unexpected events, allowing them to mobilize and remain in operation, while consolidating key initiatives that generate better and greater experiences in their customers from the reading of their risk appetite, their framework of latent and emerging risks, as well as the design of scenarios, playbooks, simulations and decision-making framework.

4.1 Introduction The challenge of understanding cyber risk in the current context demands a renewal of the executive exercise of monitoring and supervision of business risks. While board members currently expect those responsible for each of the traditional risks to report on their status and treatment, highlighting those points of greatest interest for the company’s objectives, cyber risk requires a different review and analysis, since it is an emerging, disruptive and systemic risk [1]. In this sense, board executives must break with the traditional cause-effect exercise of understanding risks, particularly in an increasingly fragile, anxious, nonlinear and incomprehensible international dynamic [2], where unexpected and rhizomatic J. J. Cano M. (B) Cybesecurity and Cyberdefense Master Program, Rafael Reyes Prieto War College, Cra. 11#102-50, Bogotá, Colombia e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_4

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events are initiated that at first may seem irrelevant and then transform into unsustainable situations that can threaten the very continuity of the business. In this way, cyber risk establishes a different perspective that challenges the previous knowledge of first-level managers and moves them to change their usual practices for new ones that adjust to the systemic reality of this risk [3]. Thus, a maturity framework for boards of directors in cyber risk governance is proposed, which, based on the reading of viable systems, suggests a multidimensional view that integrates three key dimensions such as: information units, interpretation schemes and categorical values. That is, the knowledge that is developed in the executive team is not directly related to the “quantity” of information available (information units) to analyze, but to the cognitive capacities (interpretation schemes) of its members and more interestingly, to the value system and strong beliefs held in this collegial body (categorical values) [4]. Based on the above, the maturity model proposed in a systemic perspective and based on the viable systems approach is composed of five basic elements: (a) risk appetite and framework of latent and emerging risks, (b) scenarios, (c) playbooks, (d) simulations and (e) decision framework. These elements interacting with each other create a conceptual and practical discomfort zone that takes executives out of the known zone and leads them to recognize the challenges that can be generated by the materialization of a cyber risk at the enterprise level. Considering that cyber risk is based on uncertainty and not on certainties, the previously announced maturity model allows creating a learning and creative tension zone for executives, which, beyond the certainties they would like to have about the scope of the materialization of this risk, establishes a scenario for decision-making based on instability and uncertainty, defines a scenario for decision-making based on instability and uncertainty, a place from where the corporate board of directors must now act to draw a navigation plan in the midst of the tensions and crises posed by the inevitability of failure in the current hyperconnected scenario [5]. To develop this conceptual exercise of maturity of boards of directors in the face of cyber risk, this work begins with the traditional review of risk at the corporate level located in the predictable and certain view of the standards, to then characterize and understand the cyber risk and its implications at the enterprise level. It then introduces a maturity model for boards of directors in cyber risk governance detailing its fundamentals and each of its components, continuing with the presentation of a basic diagnostic questionnaire to be applied to boards of directors to indicate their level of maturity and those key gaps to be taken into account. Finally, the document concludes with some guiding reflections on the emerging challenges for boards of directors in an increasingly digital and technologically modified society.

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4.2 Enterprise Risk Management. A Practice from the Standards There are multiple definitions of risk to address the challenge of that undesired event that creates conditions that take organizations out of their “normal” zone. The most widely used deals with everything that prevents or limits the achievement of its objectives, a definition that seeks to somehow reduce the uncertainties that may arise to achieve a particular strategic position [6]. In this conceptualization of risk, uncertainty and instability become threats to the organization, which are usually studied from the causes and effects, as a basis for the analysis that must be carried out to establish the decision-making framework [7]. It is curious to review that the more information one has about the risk and its effects, the more confidence the organization and its executive body have to act, as if they somehow know how the intentions of the potential adversary are going to evolve. Corporate risk management describes the way in which the company recognizes the generally known points of instability and failure, for which good practices are applied as indicated in the recognized standards, in order to reduce the probability of occurrence of a known adverse event. Notwithstanding the above, it is important to emphasize that efforts are concentrated on understanding the failures of specific elements in the processes to warn of their possible vulnerabilities and limit their materialization. It is noteworthy that in this exercise, the organization prepares to deal with an adverse event and focuses on the victim’s perspective, based on prevention [8]. Enterprise risk management is generally based on the use of risk-control matrices, supported by heat maps that are developed using the experience and perceptions of the different participants of the processes, added to the data recorded by the organization on a particular subject and the international trends of the specific sector, in order to make a probability assessment that responds to a particular requirement of certainty that the company requires to mobilize its efforts and make the best decisions to achieve a key position in its market sector [6]. In this sense, enterprise risk management is based on its ability to manage and ensure known risks for which the organization has specialists in each of its areas, who from their experience and knowledge of international best practices is able to organize and materialize the corresponding actions that allow the company to mobilize with greater confidence despite the possible events that may materialize. The illusion of control, based on a security based on controls and good practices, is part of the challenge to overcome in this corporate exercise [8]. Given the novelty of cybernetic risk and its characteristics based on the uncertainty and instability inherent to the coupling and interaction that can occur when increasing the digital density of objects in the physical world, traditional risk management strategies reveal limitations to understand the dynamics of this risk. Thus, it is necessary to study the properties and experiences of this interconnected reality where more information patterns exist between connected objects, some known and others emerging as a result of their interactions [9].

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4.3 Cyber Risk. A Systemic, Emerging and Disruptive Challenge To concretize the distinction of cybernetic risk, it is necessary to summon the previous developments of cybernetics, a concept created by Norbert Wiener, defined as the “science of communication and control in living and artificial beings” [10]. A physical object whose connectivity is increased will necessarily increase its information and interaction flows, which offers a greater supply of information and data that will be used either to improve the customer experience, or to degrade its privacy and security, if it does not have minimum protection elements foreseen from its design [11]. In this context, scholars Porter and Heppelmann [12] establish that the capabilities of smart and connected objects are classified into four: monitoring, control, optimization and autonomy. Monitoring is associated with the device’s own sensors to validate the condition of the product, know the conditions of the environment, as well as the use and operation of the connected object. Monitoring includes alerts about modifications or changes on the product. The control, which can be embedded in the device or based on software located in the cloud, seeks to maintain the functionality of the device and the customization of the customer’s experience. This capability validates the conditions of the connected object, for which tracking algorithms are executed to allow proper operation of the product considering the environmental and operating conditions. Optimization is based on the compilation of the data previously collected by the sensors to advance the required data analytics either to improve the performance of the connected object or to develop preventive diagnostics, services and repairs required to maintain the reliability of the device, maintain and improve the customer experience and thus, ensure the value promise of the company. Autonomy is the highest level of the capabilities of interconnected objects, which allows the combination of the above capabilities to have products that operate autonomously, that is, that coordinate with other connected devices, that automatically advance customizations based on data, that apply preventive and corrective self-diagnostics, which allows an operation supported by the dynamics of the device itself, its interactions and the environment. These capabilities speak to and confirm the concept developed by Sieber and Zamora [11] called digital density. Digital density precisely frames the connectivity of the physical object and new information flows, which establish relationships with other locally connected devices or with products in the cloud. As digital density increases, it increases the cyber environment of operations that organizations must begin to know and experience in order to realize their business proposals. Thus, cybernetic risk “as a relational bet interwoven in the connectivity of physical objects and social realities, which changes the way the world is perceived and creates unprecedented scenarios that challenge current risk management practices” [1], establishes an emerging reality, which demands an interdisciplinary view, to try to understand its movements in the organizational context and establish patterns that may be of interest for the strategic objectives of companies.

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Consequently, cybernetic risk demands reinventing the practice of enterprise risk management, now from a systems thinking perspective, so that not only the probabilities for known risks appear as the protagonists of analysis and executive reflections, but also the dynamics of possibilities, in which latent and emerging risks are perceived and understood, which implies a permanent effort to understand a changing and unstable environment, as well as to recognize and overcome the cognitive blindnesses inherent to previous knowledge (own interpretation schemes), as well as the demands for certainties of management teams [13].

4.4 Maturity Model for Boards of Directors in Cyber Risk Governance. Fundamentals and Components To develop a maturity model for boards of directors in cyber risk governance is to recognize the conditions of viable systems, where information units, interpretation schemes and categorical values of executives play a fundamental role, in order to realize the different components of the model proposed in this paper. On the other hand, the concept of maturity that is being developed distances itself from the traditional models that speak of levels or places where an organization arrives after having applied a series of practices and metrics that allow it to position itself and be recognized for its particular achievement. On the contrary, maturity is understood as a trend that is consolidated based on a permanent and sustained effort of the organization to stay out of the comfort zone of the standards and achievements reached, in order to consolidate an exercise of permanent learning where each challenge or adverse condition allows it to strengthen its capacity of anticipation and, when necessary, its resilient operation based on previously defined thresholds of maneuver and adjusted according to the evolution of the conditions of the environment [14]. Based on the above, the model develops five basic elements that seek to create and develop previously non-existent capabilities in the executive team, which end with an update of the doctrine of enterprise risk management, and above all to motivate and consolidate a vigilant view of the company in the face of emerging instabilities and challenges that may arise in the cybernetic context of the organization (Fig. 4.1). The first model element is the “risk appetite and the latent and emerging risks framework.” This first element locates the organization to identify and declare those risks it is not willing to take in accordance with its corporate values, which ones it is willing to take in the face of the company’s digital strategy, the impacts and affectations by the materialization of the risks on its different stakeholders and the capabilities required to address those risks to be taken [15]. In this context, the organization must have a clear and concrete horizon of analysis of latent and emerging risks, which has been the result of a detailed and interdisciplinary study that seeks to motivate the organization to a strategic review and place the executive team in a challenging and novel scenario that pushes them out of the

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Fig. 4.1 Maturity model for boards of directors in cyber risk governance. Source Own elaboration

traditional risk zone, and thus create learning windows, in a psychologically safe zone where it is possible to think differently and propose alternatives hitherto ignored or unpublished. The second element of the model is the scenarios. To develop a scenario is to open an area of exploration and analysis that seeks to challenge the participants’ previous knowledge, in order to take them to possible, probable and challenging moments and situations that allow the emergence of analyses and responses different from the traditional ones [16]. A scenario is a space for conversation and challenge that interrogates the interpretation schemes of the executives, in order to identify possible blind spots and actions not contemplated that allows confronting the way in which a possible adverse event should be dealt with. The maturity challenge is that the organization manages to design and detail at least five (5) key scenarios based on the latent and emerging risks inherent to the business. In this sense, a concrete and real commitment is demanded from the board of top-level executives to frame the business objectives and the mentioned risks, to detail situations and contexts that lead the organization to be prepared to assume and navigate in the midst of the tensions that may be generated by the materialization of latent and emerging risks. When an attacker succeeds in realizing one of the latent or emerging risks, the organization must be prepared to act in the midst of the uncertainty that arises from this situation. Therefore, it is necessary to activate the playbooks to advance the required coordination and communication in order to mobilize the company in an adequate way to follow an action protocol that allows an orderly response, with established roles and targeted communications, which show the formality and commitment of the corporation in front of the event that has occurred. Playbooks specify three key moments in the uncertainty of the materialization of a cyber risk: a “before,” a “during” and an “after.” In the “before,” concrete elements

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of required preparedness are established that must then be used once the event has materialized (during). In “during,” activate the protocols for containment, mitigation and eradication of the failure, including the subsequent review that the adversary has not been connected to any part of the infrastructure. Finally, the “after,” this carries the lessons learned and the legal responses that may be necessary for the affectation of the company’s customers’ information [17]. The simulations are exercises coordinated and developed with the different participants of the organization, including first-level executives, in order to have a practice field where the previously designed scenarios are developed and the planned playbooks are activated [18]. In this context, executives should follow the indications and guidelines provided for the selected adverse events, so that their actions and positions respond to the tensions and instabilities that arise in order to protect the company’s reputation. Moving forward with scenario simulations based on latent and emerging risks involves providing units of information related to the event, breaking down executives’ existing frameworks of interpretation of risk management and challenging the categorical value framework (and their beliefs) in the face of extreme situations such as the payment of extortion with data, the destruction of the company’s intellectual property or the loss of business due to reputational damage in their business sector [19]. Finally, there is the decision-making framework, which implies having a structure of operational thresholds that allow executives to discuss and determine the best options for attending to and mobilizing the organization in the midst of the tensions and instabilities produced by the materialization of a cyber risk. That is, defining alert and activation levels, which translate into concrete situations and activities that must be confirmed based on the information received and consolidated by the support team related to cyber risk [20]. A possible decision-making framework based on alert and activation levels is presented below. It is important to note that as the event and its impacts evolve, it may escalate in level, and for this purpose, there must be a person responsible for declaring and notifying the current alert level in the company (Table 4.1). Covering the entire spectrum proposed in the model implies a sustained effort and a formal commitment on the part of top-level executives, who, although they have the support team in dealing with cyber risk, are committed to and appropriate for the governance of this risk as an integral part of their exercise as a collegiate body of managers who care for the dynamics of the organization and wish to maintain a strategic position of the company in the environment and the recognition of its customers.

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Table 4.1 Decision-making framework based on alert levels Alert level Alert

Description

Actions and decisions

1

Normality Daily events identified by the • Advance behavioral analytics in technology platforms that must be real time monitored and analyzed to detect • Warn about changes or emerging patterns identified patterns of coordinated actions • Report possible correlations of events analyzed over time

2

Low

Isolated or independent effects that may compromise the company’s processes and operations

3

Medium

Interrelated impacts that can • Activate previously prepared and compromise the infrastructure and simulated playbooks • Activate the legal attention plan the business’ own applications on information with a legal duty of protection • To have the required communications to inform the different stakeholders affected

4

High

Affections that may compromise the data of customers, staff and trusted third parties

5

Very high

Affectations that may compromise • Activate response coordination the company and its business, and at the business sector level • Activate the crisis room with the therefore its reputation participation of top-level executives and the management team to evaluate the next steps • Notify the insurer of the current situation and conditions of the evolution of the event

Source Own elaboration

• Initiate contingency and continuity protocols as appropriate • Activate fault containment, mitigation and eradication measures • Advance lessons learned in conjunction with the affected processes and areas

• Activate the customer and partner support plan • Enact formal and detailed board pronouncement that follows the six (6) “R’s”: repudiate the damage, acknowledge the facts, solve the problem, reform what is necessary, restitute those affected and renew the corporate image [21] • Coordinate response with strategic partners and state cyber response groups

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4.5 Maturity Diagnostic for Boards of Directors in Cyber Risk Governance Understanding that maturity is a sustained effort that translates into a trend, the following is a diagnostic tool for the maturity of boards of directors in the governance of cyber risk, which seeks to take a snapshot in time and identify those inflection points that the organization has, recognize the progress and limitations of the way the organization appropriates this risk and how to look to the future of its treatment beyond the daily measures provided by the standards. To this end, board directors should rate each of the evaluation items in Table 4.2 using a Likert scale (5-Strongly Agree, 4-Agree, 3-Indifferent, 2-Disagree, 1Strongly Disagree) associated with each of the elements of the maturity model presented above, in order to establish their perception of management on cyber risk governance. If the score of the answers for each of the statements in each block is in the following ranges, it should be interpreted as follows: 1 and less than 2—Low maturity level—Reactive and oriented to attend contingencies due to cyber risk materialization. 2 and 3—Medium maturity level—There is no real commitment from the board which generates instability in cyber risk governance. 4—High maturity level—There is a concrete commitment by the board that generates a proactive stance to govern cyber risk in the organization. 5—Very high maturity level—There is ownership of cyber risk by the board of directors, which makes its governance effort sustainable over time. The following analysis is performed by blocks of the elements of the model, in order to identify the most representative gaps and establish an action plan to close the gap and ensure a more consistent effort and commitment to improve the position of the executive collegiate body with regard to cyber risk governance. To this end, it will be necessary to review the averages of the blocks with a rating less than or equal to three.

4.6 Conclusions Cyber risk has become a strategic challenge for organizations in the twenty-first century, since the increase in digital density in the business context requires business executives not only to create new proposals and concrete experiences for customers but also to care for and ensure this experience from the reality of protecting their data and the dynamics of the interconnection required to manifest the corporation’s promise of value. In this sense, it is necessary to advance in an accelerated digital literacy of boards of directors in the face of cyber risk in order to challenge the current practices

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Table 4.2 Diagnostic of board maturity in cyber risk governance Elements

Evaluation items

Risk appetite, latent and emerging risks

A.1 Cyber risk is monitored by the board’s audit committee

Rating (5-Strongly Agree, 4-Agree, 3-Indifferent, 2-Disagree, 1-Strongly Disagree)

A.2 There is a formal statement of risk appetite against the company’s digital strategy A.3 A map of latent and emerging risks is known and socialized among board members Scenarios

E.1 Working sessions are held to analyze and design a scenario based on latent and emerging risks E.2 Scenarios designed based on business objectives are challenged E.3 At least three (3) scenarios are consolidated for review and analysis during the year

Playbooks

L.1 Playbook design for latent and emerging risks is in place L.2 The different participants of the playbooks have been summoned for review and detail L.3 A set of ready, validated and detailed playbooks is available

Simulations

S.1 There are defined times and spaces to carry out simulation exercises S.2 The responsible persons defined in the playbooks are summoned to participate in the exercises S.3 At least three (3) scenario simulations are performed per year

Decision-making framework

M.1 Alert and activation levels are defined and socialized with board members M.2 Who activates and defines the level of alert according to the current situation is clearly defined (continued)

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Table 4.2 (continued) Elements

Evaluation items

Rating (5-Strongly Agree, 4-Agree, 3-Indifferent, 2-Disagree, 1-Strongly Disagree)

M.3 Simulations have been carried out using alert and activation levels Source Own elaboration

of enterprise risk management, which to date only respond to known risks from the application of recognized practices and standards. Therefore, without adequate cyber risk governance, organizations will be all the time reacting to uncertain events manifested by adversaries in an increasingly digital and technologically modified scenario [8]. Cyber risk is characterized by being uncertain, unstable and nonlinear, given that the level of coupling and interaction of the components of the solution or digital initiative changes as it is used and integrated with different elements of the digital ecosystem where it is located [22]. This suggests and demands from the boards of directors to understand the dynamics of this risk, for which it is necessary to advance in a maturity model that guides and develops the capabilities of the executive team, which allows permeating such dynamics to other areas of the organization. To the extent that the first-level executive team matures in the governance of cyber risk, the corporation will be able to strengthen its digital resilience practices, which respond to a proactive and vigilant strategic action and direction framework, which must be articulated from the uncertainties and instabilities, elements that do not gravitate around known risks, but around latent and emerging ones [23]. Thus, it is necessary to move from good practices in risk management to the consolidation of capabilities to govern cyber risk. The maturity model for boards of directors in the governance of cyber risk management and its maturity tool establishes a first conceptual and practical reference that offers an invitation to corporate management teams to learn in a space of construction and strategic conversation around the challenges imposed by cyber risks, as a foundation for the preparation of companies in the face of digital transformation projects that are currently being developed. Therefore, recognizing and diagnosing how the first-level governance body is advancing in the governance of cyber risk allows both the company and the internal and external control entities, an in-depth look at the commitment, challenge and progress of the boards of directors in the knowledge, analysis and treatment of these risks, given that greater digitization of products and services, not only opens up new opportunities but also expands the attack surface in the medium and long term.

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References 1. Cano, J.: Cyberrisk. Learning from a systemic, emerging and disruptive risk. Revista SISTEMAS. Colombian Association of Systems Engineers, pp. 63–73 (2019). https://doi.org/ 10.29236/sistemas.n151a5 2. Cascio, J.: Facing the age of chaos. Institute for the future (2020). https://medium.com/@cas cio/facing-the-age-of-chaos-b00687b1f51d 3. Forscey, D., Batema, J., Beecroft, N., Woods, B.: Systemic Cyber Risk: A Primer. Paper. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2022). https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/ 07/systemic-cyber-risk-primer-pub-86531 4. Carayannis, E., Del Giudice, M., Saviano, M., Caputo, F.: Beyond big data. From Smart to wise knowledge management. In: Barile, S., Espejo, R., Perko, I., Saviano, M. (eds) Cybernetics and Systems. Social and Business Decisions, pp. 297–304. Routledge, Oxon, UK (2019) 5. Zukis, B., Ferrillo, P., Veltos, C.: The Great Reboot. Succeeding in a World of Catastrophic Risk and Opportunity. DDN Press, USA (2020) 6. Mejía, R.: Risk management. A business approach. 12 Reprint. Medellín, Antioquia. Fondo Editorial Universidad EAFIT, Colombia (2017) 7. Gaultier-Gailard, S., Louisot, J.P.: Managing Risks in the Enterprise. Identifying, Analyzing and Mapping Vulnerabilities. Panamericana Editorial, Bogotá, Colombia (2019) 8. Martin, P.: The Rules of Security. Staying Safe in a Risky World. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK (2019) 9. Evans, N., Horsthemke, W.: Analysis of dependencies. In: Kott, A., Linkov, I. (eds.) Cyber Resilience of Systems and Networks. Springer, Cham, Switzerland (2019) 10. Téllez, F.: CIBER prefix: archaeology of its presence in the knowledge society. Res. Dev. 24(1), 142–162 (2016). https://doi.org/10.14482/indes.24.1.8688 11. Sieber, S., Zamora, J.: The cybersecurity challenge in a high digital density world. Eur. Bus. Rev. November (2018). https://www.europeanbusinessreview.com/the-cybersecurity-challenge-ina-high-digital-density-world/ 12. Porter, M., Heppelmann, J.: How Smart, connected products are transforming competition. Harvard Bus. Rev. November (2014). https://hbr.org/2014/11/how-smart-connected-productsare-transforming-competition 13. Cano, J.: The AREM window. A strategy for anticipating risks and threats in enterprise cybersecurity. ISACA J. 5 (2017). https://www.isaca.org/Journal/archives/2017/Volume-5/Pages/thearem-window-spanish.aspx 14. Pernet, E.: A Systemic Model for Diagnosing the State of Maturity of Governance, Risk and Compliance in Organizations (Doctoral Dissertation). Newport University, United States of America (2013) 15. Wucker, M.: You are What You Risk. The New Art and Science of Navigating an Uncertain World. Pegasus Book, New York, USA (2021) 16. Schoemaker, P.: Forecasting and scenario planning: the challenges of uncertainty and complexity. In: Koehler, D., Harvey, N. (eds.) Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, pp. 274–296. Blackwell publishing, Oxford, UK (2004) 17. Vasella, T.: Incident response playbooks. Indispensable in future crisis situation. https://www. scip.ch/en/?labs.20190103 (2020) 18. Angafor, G., Yevseyeva, I., He, Y.: Game-based learning: a review of tabletop exercises for cybersecurity incident response training. Secur. Priv. 3(6), e126 (2020) https://doi.org/10.1002/ spy2.126 19. Parker, J.: Breach & Attack Simulation for Dummies. Wiley, Hoboken, NJ. USA (2020) 20. Bendel, B., Schwenk, J., Madsen, T., Fekete, M.: Applying DEFCON and the homeland security advisory system in organisational risk management. SCENTIA Int. Econ. Rev. 1(1), 192–202 (2021). https://doi.org/10.52514/sier.v1i1.16 21. De la Cierva, Y.: Communicating in Troubled Waters. An Ethical Approach to Crisis Communication. Ediciones Universidad de Navarra, Navarra, Spain (2015)

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22. Ulrich, D.: Harnessing Uncertainty: How to Prosper in the Unknowable New Normal. Linkedin. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/harnessing-uncertainty-how-prosper-unknowablenew-normal-dave-ulrich (2020) 23. Day, G., Schoemaker, P.: See Soon, Act Faster. How Vigilant Leaders Thrive in an Era of Digital Turbulence. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. USA (2019)

Chapter 5

A Visual Graph Approach for Evaluating the Vulnerability of ENC Standards Gauthier Vigouroux, Pedro Merino Laso, Christophe Claramunt, and Nathalie Leidinger

Abstract This research introduces a modelling and visual approach to representing the vulnerability of an ecosystem of standards. The dependencies of an ecosystem of standards is crawled and extracted from reference documents. A graph model represents different categories of standard dependencies and vulnerabilities and it is complemented by a series of interactive graph visualisation that highlight the different standard dependencies. The whole approach is applied to the ISO 19100 and S100 geographical and electronic navigation chart standards, respectively.

5.1 Introduction Standardization is a long-established formal and legal process for developing technical rules for the consensual representation of diverse types of data. Standards and norms facilitate interoperability among different data infrastructures and applications. This research introduces a modelling approach whose objective is to evaluate the dependence and vulnerability of a normative ecosystem made of a series of geographical information standards and more specifically Electronic Navigation Systems standards. While standards and norms have long been developed in the context of geographical and maritime information, there is still a lack of sound evalG. Vigouroux (B) · P. M. Laso · C. Claramunt Naval Academy Research Institute, Brest, France e-mail: [email protected] P. M. Laso e-mail: [email protected] C. Claramunt e-mail: [email protected] P. M. Laso French Maritime Academy (ENSM), Nantes, France N. Leidinger Naval Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service (SHOM), Brest, France e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_5

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uations of vulnerability and security issues that arise from the multiple relationships that associate these norms when applied to specific data infrastructures and applications, as well as their necessary evolution [4]. The main idea behind our approach is to first identify the multiple dependencies that formally associate different norms when applied to a given data context, and secondly to develop a visual system that intuitively represents these multiple standard relationships. The specific functions associated to this visualisation system are as follows: • Identify the possible impact of the alteration of a given standard to the entire standard ecosystem. • Highlight the impact of a standard security breach . • Provide a global view of a standard ecosystem to evaluate the impact of a standard to the whole ecosystem. Although standards have long proven their interest and efficiency for many application domains, vulnerability and security breaches regularly occur. For example, a security flaw has been recently reported on the standard ISO 15118 [1], and on a very recent one as denoted by the Switzerland National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) report.1 These security failures have major impacts on the reliability of the applications associated to these standards. Therefore, there is a clear need for efficient systems that provide appropriate ways of assessing and visualising the impact of these events and threats on a normative ecosystem. As our application context is the one of geographical information data, and specifically electronic navigation charts, this research develops a modelling and visual evaluation of the ISO 19100 series standards and the new ENC standard S-101. While applied to this specific case, our objective is to develop a generic approach that can also be applied to other standard ecosystems. An important peculiarity of our developed system is its automatic component, that is, given a set of norms qualified by appropriate reference documents, our system extracts standard relations and dependencies by the generation of a tree structure that embed such relations. This visual system highlights these multiple relationships, then raising potential threats against standards and possible impacts. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. First, a brief related work section introduces a standard ecosystem and its vulnerabilities, and a few principles behind the interest of applying graphs in cyber security. The third section introduces and discusses our methodology principles and its genericity. Section 5.4 applies this methodology to ISO 19100 ecosystem and more precisely to the S-100 hydrographic standard. Finally, the conclusion summarizes our work and outlines a few future research directions.

1

https://cve.mitre.org/cgi-bin/cvename.cgi?name=CVE-2022-0878.

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5.2 Motivation Potential standard threats and vulnerabilities are regularly reported in many domains. For example, the ISO 15118 standard (Vehicle to grid communication interface) has been recently reported for his lack of security [1, 3, 10]. This calls into questions the ISO 15100 standards’ reliability, which is generally important for many legal references, data infrastructures and applications. Furthermore, and this is a key assumption of our approach, not only may one have a clear evaluation of the vulnerability of a given standard, but also the impact of any security breach of a given standard on all related norms. This came from the fact that a given norm is not an isolated reference for a specific domain, but rather one component of a broader information environment in which generally many norms are interdependent. A normative dependencies analysis for the ISO 19100 standard series has already been conducted in 2011 [4]. However, this analysis should be now revisited as in the meantime the number of standards has risen from 49 to 74, and there still is a need for intuitive solutions to highlight and visualize such dependencies. On the basis of this previous work, we also retain a formal approach to providing sound definitions of these dependencies, in order to provide better support for identifying, categorising and analysing them at a global scale when studying a series of interdependent standards. When analyzing standard vulnerabilities, it is important to consider what would happen if a flaw or security breach occurred. For example, to what extent will all standard components be affected, and what impact will any standard update have on the entire standard ecosystem, these are some of the issues that must still be addressed and formally modelled [4]. In particular, cyber security is a global and major concern and this indeed applies to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) [5], whose security must be ensured through well-designed and strict security policies [15]. This also applies to ENCs that are considered as a specific GIS context in the maritime domain. A visualisation system that reports on the different relations and then possible flaws of a standard ecosystem may benefit from the modelling and manipulation of graph systems that have already been applied at the formal and operational levels in similar environments [11]. Graphs have been widely used to address to cyber security issues and the interdependence of various different information systems and data infrastructures. Graphs are particularly well suited to analyzing the propagation of a given failure in a critical infrastructure and subsequent generation of several other failures [13]. Graphs can be useful for analyzing the propagation of anomalies in complex systems [12]. Despite the interest of these previous works and studies, none of them have completely explored to the best of our knowledge the representation and analysis of the propagation of vulnerabilities through standards in a generic way. Therefore, this paper introduces a graph based methodology for assessing and visualizing the impact of standard vulnerabilities of a large standard ecosystem.

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5.3 Methodology This section introduces the main principles of the proposed methodology. A peculiarity of our modelling and visualization approach is that it can be reproduced as all sources are publicly available in a Github repository Stand_are_nodes.2

5.3.1 Theoretical Principles First of all, let us define the information context derived from the standard and normative environment or our study. In order to evaluate and identify the potential links between different standards, one must retrieve the normative references contained in the different norms. We first define such a dependence as follows: a normative dependency is a relationship between two standards in which a change to the normative content in one standard will impact the normative content of the other standard [4]. Normative dependencies can be classified by several types: Scope dependencies, Normative reference dependencies, Term dependencies, Provision dependencies [4]. These dependence categories entail different levels of semantic relationships and then potential links between the considered standards. Therefore, two standards with a high degree of dependency and alignment will exert a significant influence on each other. When one standard is associated to another by a dependency, the vulnerability of that standard is likely to have an impact on the other, depending on the level of influence of the dependency. When analyzing the entire standard ecosystem, these standard dependencies should be reported at the visualisation level. When analysing the standard ecosystem, this should also support a flexible approach in which these dependencies can be visualised per category. For instance, references in the scope section have a high degree of relation when having a high degree of semantic similarity. Indeed, these are the dependencies that define the most important standard dependencies. For example, the scope of an implementation specification could be determined by an abstract standard [4]. Therefore, there is a strong link between the standards cited in a given section. A vulnerability detected in a technical specification standard is likely to have a significant impact on the abstract standard described in the Scope section. In 2011, 20 dependencies were identified in the Scope section amongst the 49 standards published so far [4]. However, these dependencies should also be studied at a lower level of granularity, by weighting them appropriately when deriving reference dependencies. A standard dependency to another one should be extracted from their reference documents and when it is required for application of this standard [6]. In 2011, there were 299 dependencies quote in the Normative reference sections of the ISO 19100 series [4]. Without loss of generality, and as these two are the only ones publicly available, the other two categories are not considered in the present work (i.e., Term and Provision dependencies). 2

Stand_are_node project’s URL: https://github.com/GauthierVigouroux/Stand_are_nodes.

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5.3.2 Dataset Production The reference data set is generated from a data source available in the public domain extracted from the OBP platform of the ISO website. Therefore, the objective is to develop a crawling Python program to retrieve each page that is given as an input, and then execute a JavaScript to retrieve the HTML code of each page. An effective discrimination should be executed to recover the links from the dependency types as described above. These links should be present in the Scope and Normatives references sections of the document. By using a WebScrapping framework like requests-html, a discrimination of HTML code can be performed via the CSS style nomenclature. The two parts to recover are both identifiable separately by their CSS style. Therefore, the URL links present in this part should be retrieved, and according to the standard from which they were extracted, and reported in a Python dictionary that will serve as a reference data set. This dataset will be stored in a JSON file. This script requires a set of URLs as an input. A JSON input file is generated in order to identify the names and the links to the documents of the standards to be analysed.

5.3.3 Dependency Evaluation Giving appropriate weights to the identified standard relationships should favour a better understanding of the strength of these dependencies. For instance, reference to high weights, updates, or vulnerability discovered in one standard will result in substantial impacts on a dependent standard. This will be done with some indicative values at first, rather than using a realistic view, which is difficult to achieve at this time. Indeed, not having access to all reference documents, providing an exact view will be difficult, as the number of references to the same standard in the entire document is merely an approximation. To provide a global view of the different relationships between the standards identified, a chord visual representation has been chosen. The advantage of this choice is that it allows for a global view of the standard ecosystem and relationships while preserving local relations at the individual standard level. Edges’ sizes are valued by standard relation weights while standard nodes denote their number of dependencies. To derive such values an analysis of the norms is performed as follows: ⎞ ⎛ Wref j ,si ⎜Wref j ,si ⎟ ⎟ ⎜ (5.1) si = ⎜Wref ,s ⎟ j i⎠ ⎝ .. . W gives the weight of each relationship and denotes its importance in the document [14]. The weight W is defined as follows:

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with ∀ j ∈ {1, . . . , T } ∀i ∈ {1, . . . , N } Wref j ,si = t f ref j ,si × is f ref j with is f ref j = ln

N s f ref j

(5.2)

where: • • • • •

T : number of references in the whole ecosystem Wref j ,si : weight of reference ref j in the standard si t f ref j : appearance frequency of reference ref j in the standard si N : number of standards s s f ref j : standards s containing the reference ref j .

This index W denotes the strength of the relations between the nodes of the graph that denote the standards. This can be intuitively understood as follows: if a reference is present in the whole norm family then s fNref tends to 1, conversely if j is f ref j tends to 0, then the weight Wref j ,s of the reference ref j in the standard s also tends to 0. Visually, this gives a sense of remoteness, either a strong vector or a smaller force of attraction between the two nodes. On the other hand, a reference that is not very present in the set of standards increases is f ref j and the value of the reference’s weight ref j in the standard s increase as well, especially if mentioned several times. Next, the size of the nodes are considered. This parameter is managed in a minimalist but logical way. The size index denotes the number of references the document contains. This choice of representation improves the visibility of the graph while highlighting standards that are potentially more vulnerable than others as well as more sensitive to updates. To have a complete visualisation of the standard ecosystem, a Chord visualisation highlights the global dependencies between the standards. To do this, the framework Holoviews with the library Bokeh are used. The weights of these dependencies are the derived indexes for this representation but Wref j ,I S O denotes the strength of the flow. This complementary visualisation first favours the identification of the standards that are more exposed to potential vulnerabilities or modifications from other standards. Such standards are identified by the size of their nodes. Secondly, the size of the edges connecting these points is determined by the weight formula (Eq. 5.2). This favours the identification of the norms that are strongly linked according to their citation weights. These representations are dynamic as specific links associated to a given standard can be highlighted, as well as the impacted standards.

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Fig. 5.1 Network analysis of the ISO 19100 series

5.4 Case Study: Geographic Information Systems Standards This section applies our proposed methodology to GIS standards. All the results reported are available on the Github repository including interactive graph and chord representations.3 Two standards are analysed: ISO 19100 series and S-101 standard.

5.4.1 ISO 19100 Series ISO 19100 standard series were introduced during the 2000s s by the working group ISO/TC 211 Geographic information/Geomatics to develop and manage the production and exchange of geographic information. To analyse the ISO 19100 standards family, a JSON input file that contains the links and names of the 74 standards to analyze has been generated. Figure 5.1 represents the resulting graph extracted from the proposed methodology introduced in the previous section. A color code identifies the different types of standard following these definitions: • Green: The ISO/IEC Standards are issued by two non-governmental organizations that jointly published a given standard . These standards are important references as they contain generic specifications for many information systems. • Yellow: ISO standards referenced in the input file. 3

URL to the resulting interactive figures: https://github.com/GauthierVigouroux/Stand_are_nodes/ tree/master/rpz_graph.

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• Blue: ISO standards that are not referenced in the input file and have been generated by the algorithm. • Purple: ISO/TS Standards which are standards with technical specifications.4 They also include information system requirements. This visualization shows a particular structure in the form of a square due to the application of the Barnes-Hut algorithm [2]. This algorithm locates our standard nodes according to the links that relate them, and define for each of them a variable that denotes its own gravity. This allows us to distinguish the ones that are associated to geographic information by centralising them in the visualisation. The graph of the Fig. 5.1 denotes a pretty central standard in the ecosystem, the ISO 19115 [7]. This standard provides a main metadata reference for geographic data. Logically, this standard cites many other standards, as both production and information exchanges require metadata references. A vulnerability induced by this standard or an update is very likely to generate substantial changes in the standard ecosystem. The ISO 19115 also employs many standards that are not part of its ecosystem. For example, ISO 15489 [9] is cited as a standard for records management and protection, which, in the event of a vulnerability caused by this standard, would suggest a cascade effect, and thus a major flaw in the ISO 19100 standards series. The graph depicts all of this and enables for the evaluation of the impact of such a situation. Chord The Chord representation is introduced in Fig. 5.2. This visualization filters the number of standards according to their weights. The ones smaller than a given threshold value are withdrawn to avoid the ones that have an anecdotal influence on the standards. This allows us to keep only the most important citations and standards of the ecosystem. As before, the representation is dynamic, and the links and norms are clickable to highlight them. This visualization highlights the importance and weights of the relationships between each of the standards. This allows us to understand how the standards interact with one another and the ecosystem as a whole. While there is no explicit notion of centrality, it appears that the norms occupying the largest area of the circle will have the greatest influence, followed by dependent norms. Regarding the ISO 19100 ecosystem, one can cite one of the most influential standards, that is, the ISO 19135 [8] on Procedures for item registration.

5.4.2 S-101 Standard Let us study the new S-101 standard published by the IHO (International Hydrographic Organization). The S-101 ENC Product Specification gives the content, structure, data encoding and metadata required for compiling S-101 ENC data.5 4

International Organization for Standardization. The different types of ISO publications. URL: https://www.iso.org/deliverables-all.html#TS. Last accessed 5th May 2022. 5 IHO S-101 to S-199 URL: https://iho.int/fr/iho-s-101-to-s-199.

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Fig. 5.2 Chord representation of the ISO 19100 ecosystem for all dependencies with W > 6.5

As an input to our algorithm, references present in the Normative references and Scope sections are considered. As in the previous section, the objective is to visualize the ecosystem related to this standard. Figures 5.3 and 5.4 make possible to easily visualize the impact of a flaw in the standard and figure out how to fix it.

5.5 Conclusion The research introduced in this paper develops a methodological approach for identifying and interactively visualizing vulnerabilities in a standards ecosystem, as well as their potential dissemination. Our approach is first constructed by a crawling algorithm that extracts standard dependencies as identified by their reference documents. A python script automatically retrieves the normative dependencies of the input standards. A peculiarity of this script is that it can be adapted to other normative

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Fig. 5.3 Graph visualization of S-101 standard ecosystem

Fig. 5.4 Chord representing the dependencies between S-101 and ISO Standards

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ecosystems with minor adaptations. Our model is then derived from a graph-based model complemented by a series of visualization that summarizes the main standard dependencies. The main advantage of the graph and chord visualizations developed is that they highlight standard clusters and inter-dependencies. This supports the identification of the norms that are most sensitive to changes and vulnerability in a normative ecosystems, and potentially propagation of these vulnerabilities to other standards in the same ecosystem. Last, These visualizations being dynamic as does the model design, they can be re-used as a standard ecosystem evolves. This work is preliminary and deserves further extensions. On the modelling side, the way the norms of interest are identified and dependencies selected may be revisited to consider additional semantics and properties. On the visual side, additional functionalities should be explored to identify further properties such as centrality, clustering patterns and complexity.

References 1. Bao, K., Valev, H., Wagner, M., Schmeck, H.: A threat analysis of the vehicle-to-grid charging protocol ISO 15118. Comput. Sci.-Res. Dev. 33(1), 3–12 (2018) 2. Barnes, J., Hut, P.: A hierarchical o (n log n) force-calculation algorithm. Nature 324(6096), 446–449 (1986) 3. Berg, A., Svantesson, F.: Is your electric vehicle plotting against you?: An investigation of the ISO 15118 standard and current security implementations (2021) 4. Coetzee, S.: Results from a normative dependency analysis of geographic information standards. Comput. Stan. Interfaces 33(5), 485–493 (2011) 5. Giribabu, D., Pandey, K., Rao, K., Bothale, V.M., Reddy, S., PVV PR, Chowdhury S,: Cybersecurity in webgis environment. Int. J. Comput. Internet Secur. 10(1), 11–34 (2018) 6. International Organization for Standardization: Rules for the structure and drafting of International Standards. Standard, International Organization for Standardization (2011) 7. International Organization for Standardization: Geographic information—Metadata Part 1: Fundamentals. Standard, International Organization for Standardization (2014) 8. International Organization for Standardization: Procedures for item registration Part 1: Fundamentals. Standard, International Organization for Standardization (2015) 9. International Organization for Standardization: Information and documentation—Records management Part 1: Concepts and Principles. Standard, International Organization for Standardization (2016) 10. Kotenko, I., Chechulin, A.: A cyber attack modeling and impact assessment framework. In: 2013 5th International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CYCON 2013), pp. 1–24 (2013) 11. Köhler, S., Baker, R., Strohmeier, M., Martinovic, I.: Brokenwire: Wireless disruption of ccs electric vehicle charging. eprint2202.02104 (2022) 12. Pelissero, N., Merino Laso, P., Puentes, J.: Impact assessment of anomaly propagation in naval water distribution cyber-physical system. In: 2021 IEEE International Conference on Cyber Security and Resilience (IEEE CSR) , pp. 1–8. IEEE (2021) 13. Pournaras, E., Taormina, R., Thapa, M., Galelli, S., Palleti, V., Kooij, R.: Cascading failures in interconnected power-to-water networks. SIGMETRICS Perform. Eval. Rev. 47(4), 16–20 (2020)

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14. Salton, G., Wong, A., Yang, C.S.: A vector space model for automatic indexing. Commun. ACM. 18(11), 613–620 (1975) 15. Szafra´nski, B.: Cybersecurity of spatial information–the assumption of the lattice-based model. In: 26th Geographic Information Systems Conference and Exhibition “GIS ODYSSEY 2019”, p. 340 (2019)

Chapter 6

Centralized Management IoT Platform António Rodrigues

Abstract On information technology topics, the word “innovation” is increasingly present every day. Regarding the Internet of things (IoT) subject, it’s no different. Every year new IoT products and services are created and presented that allow users to make their lives easier and simpler, connecting people to devices remotely and automatically, generating mobility and operability of services through the heterogeneity of devices connected to the Internet. Based on obstacles found in daily homes, this paperwork aims study the development of a unique and easy use platform. On this platform, it is possible to have IoT devices centralized on the same local network unit so that they can be managed and manipulated through a simple and intuitive graphical interface. Thus, management is unified and practical for any type of user who is interested in using this technology. In this thesis, good practices and the best solutions researched within the practice of IoT management were studied in different scenarios, covering types of technologies, proposed architectures, configuration processes and compatibility analysis of features and functionality of different devices currently on the market. Thus, this work aims to present in detail the study of the prototype of a unified platform that allows configuring, monitoring, and managing the integration between heterogeneous devices currently on the market for residential users.

6.1 Introduction The purchasing of devices with Internet connection functionality has grown exponentially in society. Technological advances and the low cost of these services have helped the popularization and diversification of these devices [1]. These objects, with the ability to interact with users through sensors, allow generating responses and information according to the needs of everyone. These types of devices have been termed IoT (Internet of things) [2]. The basic concept of the IoT devices’ functionality is the presence of radio-frequency identification (RFID) sensors, tags and readers in A. Rodrigues (B) Lisbon University Institute (ISCTE-IUL), ISTAR, Lisbon, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_6

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telephones, home robots, smart lamps, home appliances connected to the Internet, etc. [3]. All this infrastructure generates a database of information that allows the user to interact intelligently and in a personalized way with the device. Thus, the home user can have tasks of automated routines, better precision in decision making and interactions between the devices and the servers to which they are connected [4]. The use of this emerging technology has provided many challenges in the scope of management and integration of smart device services, as mentioned by Atzori et al. [3]. This technology has as main challenge the interconnection of a group of totally heterogeneous devices. Therefore, each one has its specific protocol and technological infrastructure for each manufacturer. Another relevant factor in the complexity of using IoT is the accuracy of the information. The set of data generated by the sensors of the devices can generate an inaccuracy of information between 60 and 70%, causing insufficient or unnecessary responses for the user [5].

6.1.1 Motivation and Research Objectives The application development for IoT devices is an increasing study area. Currently, there are multiple pieces of research carried out in the scope of smart device management. However, there is still great difficulty in the usability and practicality of the operation of these devices. Therefore, the main purpose of developing this dissertation is to expand knowledge to reduce the complexity of handling this tool for home users developing a brand-new application [6]. Thus, the focus of this study is based on analyzing and solving the following listed problems: • Administration interfaces centralized: for each device added smartly to the home network, it presents a different application to perform the devices’ configuration. When there are few devices, management is possible, but the environment where the user has countless devices on the same home network is becoming a complex factor to manage [7]. • Simplicity in installation and configuration: the applications of IoT devices present a series of configuration and installation steps, in a way that requires the user to have technological the knowledge to be able to install and configure. Thus, create a limitation in the use of technology. [7] • Interconnection between devices in a heterogeneous environment: each device has its application with access to its data. Thus, there is a limit of information and complexity in the computing environment because there are several technologies that are not connected. Thus, it is possible to reduce processing and increase excessive data traffic on the network, as there is no communication between the devices [7].

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6.2 Concepts Defined on IoT Technologies The term Internet of things (IoT) was coined in the late nineties by technological researcher Kevin Ashton in one of his conferences [8]. The concept of this emerging technology is the interaction between electronic devices connected to the Internet, thus the Internet of “things” denominated today by smart lamps, appliances with computer systems, security systems with sensors, etc.,thus, these objects became known as smart devices [3]. All interaction between IoT objects is done through the Internet, collecting information and data for more accurate and appropriate decisions for the user [9]. Some characteristics of these interactions, to exemplify such behavior, are the detection of physical phenomena such as temperatures, light and humidity through sensors, computational capacity to analyses data and send response regarding a certain behavior, identification of physical objects, through format, size, or movement, among others [10].

6.2.1 IoT Management According to Cisco, a technology and infrastructure development company, smart device technology is on the rise in the market, and estimated that by the end of 2020, 50 billion smart devices can be reached in the world [4]. However, this great demand for interconnected smart devices results in a high need to have more complete and detailed management of these devices, to reduce their complexity [11]. IoT management systems must consider security factors as a very important pillar to be researched to prevent access by unknown devices, data leaks, security changes, and so on. According to [12], IoT management systems need to have a dynamic feature in the identification of objects to avoid the pre-definition of device configurations, thus making potentiation the safety factor that is essential in this type of technology. Besides the security issue in IoT management applications, other points are very important to be considered and implemented, according to Chaqfeh [7]. Scalability brings the possibility of expanding the technology and the functioning of the application’s functionalities. It helps in the dynamic and easy functioning of device activations. From the point of view of data science, the important thing is the treatment of information, to make the devices work properly and allow them to have the most assertive response possible to users. And finally, interoperability in heterogeneous environments where devices of different characteristics, brands, and functionalities are present so that they can communicate without much complexity. The lack of standardization and definition of this type of technology greatly increases the complexity and interoperability of smart devices. Because each IoT application presents a unique data structure to adopt different programming models that are not compatible with each other. Thus, it is necessary to create a set of data structures for the environment of smart devices that are called reference architectures. These

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architectures have the characteristic of facilitating and guiding the standardization of systems development for this technology [13].

6.2.2 IoT System Architecture The reference architecture, by definition, is the composition of one or more reference models, to allow standardization, avoiding the ambiguity of information unifying business rules, structuring systems architectures, creating good software development practices, and alignment of hardware operation. Thus, the main objectives of the reference architecture can be achieved. The main objectives of the reference architecture according to [13] are to facilitate software development, enabling time optimization and construction reduction and testing. Architecture systems standardization, to establish a reference architecture in terms of essential elements to define guidelines, integrations, and compatibility between totally different systems. And finally, manage the evolution of existing systems, allowing to create a natural process for the evolution of new features without impacting those that are currently running. The IoT reference architecture model (IoT-A) developed by a researcher group from Europe and Brazil [14] was a project created in the context of the development of a European IoT reference architecture. This architecture is based on the construction of set key characteristics, defined at a high level of abstraction, allowing a broadly dynamic view that can be used in any phase of the project, from functional development to production. The functional vision defined in IoT-A architecture has nine groups of functionalities, namely: (i) application; (ii) management; (iii) service organization; (iv) IoT process management; (v) virtual entity; (vi) IoT service; (vii) security; (viii) communication, and (ix) device.

6.3 IoT Central Hub Project The impact of IoT technology in the market has been increasing every day. It brings countless benefits to users of functionality types, such as ease of collecting information from the local environment (temperature, location data, etc.), handling devices remotely, agility in daily household activities, automation of tasks, monitoring the behavior of features easily, and so forth. Thus, IoT Central Hub brings this whole concept encapsulated in a simpler and easier way for home users. Although there are already numerous applications that allow having the same behavior as the IoT Central Hub, most device management platforms still have high installation and usability complexity, so the main objective of IoT Central Hub prototype is to strongly reduce complexity, allowing more flexibility to the home user as on the market there is still few applications available. The automatic management platform of the IoT Central Hub already meets some main requirements of application type, such as heterogeneity, extensibility, privacy, and usability. The IoT Central Hub prototype must

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meet the following key system requirements: (i) known protocols in the market: it is recommended to use protocols technologies and platforms already existing in the market and recognized in the computer network area. (ii) Environment identification devices: it is expected that the application automatically identifies the devices that are available and visible to the IoT Central Hub automatic management application. (iii) Installation and automatic configuration: through the devices already identified by the application, it is recommended that an initial connection be made where data authentication is performed by the local connection (local network or Bluetooth) and the installation started if it is the first connection and the configuration of the new connected device. (iv) Device management: it is recommended that the platform is able to manage the devices found in the environment, being able to manipulate the data and control the devices. (v) Definition of data and information model: the application must provide a data and information model for the supported devices, in this way, the data model will facilitate the programming devices used by different manufacturers. The platform provides the devices’ identification through wireless technology connectivity, such as cableless networking and Bluetooth as already mentioned, so in this way, when device searching is started, it looks for available devices in the vicinity for an approximate time of 3 min. At the end of this time, the application ends the search and lists all devices found nearby and displays those available to initiate a connection. IoT Central Hub application considers the heterogeneity of devices, allowing connectivity from different manufacturers without having to be linked to a single brand in the market. As such, the platform does not require additional application installations from each manufacturer, as is often required when purchasing a brand-specific device. The prototype developed for managing IoT devices is carried out through an application running on mobile devices, developed in Java programming language, using the integrated development environment (IDE) Android Studio to create the functionalities of IoT Central Hub, as well as the user interfaces created to optimized performance, comfortability, and usability to everyone, without any expertise on computer technology. Regarding the platform’s data model and information structure, the application aims to create standardization in data format and communication between the developed application and the connected devices. Thus, device identifier and connection status are examples of data structure characteristics used for device management. To allow wide integration and extensibility of the application with other systems, the prototype of IoT Central Hub uses the most common protocols and standards among developers for the structure of data models such as XML and REST. The simplified communication and well-defined data structure are the main characteristics of IoT Central Hub application development, being one of the biggest enablers of the project to create a simple and easy-to-use environment for the home user.

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6.3.1 IoT Central Hub Architecture The IoT Central Hub management platform architecture is composed of a smart device and a developed smart device management application. The IoT Central Hub application does not need intermediary hardware to perform a connection gateway with the devices, making it easier to connect to the devices automatically. In addition to simplicity in connecting devices, the other point that benefits this type of architecture is the additional cost to purchase a gateway device for every manufacturer in the market, thus avoiding an unwieldy accumulation of additional apparatus for the management of IoT devices. The IoT Central Hub application platform is composed of layers that allow data go to through efficiently and structured within the application. As shown in Fig. 6.1, the IoT Central Hub application architecture is structured in three layers: application, services, and communication. Application layer: it is the initial layer where the user has visibility of the operation and the autonomy to manage the IoT Central Hub platform through the graphical interface, in a fast and intuitive way. Service Layer: application’s intermediate layer is formed by the platform’s services. The services interpret the data for the correct

Fig. 6.1 IoT Central Hub application architecture

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Fig. 6.2 IoT Central Hub data structure communication

functioning of events and provide support for device connectors to establish the connection efficiently for data processing. Communication Layer: it is the layer where exist network communication protocols, Bluetooth, and wireless networks are used at that moment. These protocols are used to encode and identify data transferred through the types of protocol versions that the application supports. The IoT Central Hub platform data communicates with the other device through the gateway on both sides to maintain system reliability. Thus, after pairing the devices, through the data structure configured in the application, the communication is carried out by parameters that are sent from one gateway to the other. In way, the application can work as a server and send the instructions to another device without having to configure or install any version from a specific manufacturer. Thus, the application allows the user to change or adjust any functionality of the applications already installed on the other device. Figure 6.2 exemplifies the functionality of sending parameters between gateways in two different scenarios, where the one is composed by soundbar (model Ematic ESB210) and the application of the IoT Central Hub installed on the device, in scenario A. In scenario B, it is composed of a security camera (model IMILAB C20) and an IoT Central Hub application installed on the device. In the case of the prototype developed for the IoT Central Hub application, the functionality designed was the verification of the battery status in a remote device.

6.3.2 IoT Central Hub Functionalities The IoT Central Hub application is composed of five main features that were mentioned previously throughout this research work. The main functionalities of the developed work are turning the communication interfaces on and off, making the device searchable to be identified by another device, seeing the list of paired devices, searching which devices are visible, and sending configuration parameters to the destination gateway. Each functionality has a specific feature that allows the proper device management platform to function. To the prototype elaboration, models of smartphones from the manufacturer Samsung were used, one was a mobile Samsung Galaxy A41, and another is a Tablet Samsung Galaxy Tab S6. The application developed to manage the devices, it was installed in both devices, named

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IoT Central Hub through an executable “.APK” that runs automatically as soon as it is started, without any further configuration by the user. Through the five basic application functionalities, it is possible to perform connection, pairing, searching, and becoming searchable, and sending parameters, as shown in Fig. 6.3. The first functionality to be explored in the application is the connection availability environment. Connectivity between devices must always be active to allow access to data through the wireless communication interface. As previously mentioned, the prototype limited itself to using Bluetooth connectivity and left the other connection option, Wi-Fi connectivity, for future work. However, the prototype has already left a research path open to continue this type of connection in the future studies. Bluetooth connectivity was used Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) technology, which is a more appropriate technology for IoT devices, as they consume less energy and are more efficient in operation. Due to the use of this technology, it is recommended to use Bluetooth version 4.2 or higher to have a better data transmission rate. The Paired devices functionality allows checking all devices that have been connected to the IoT Central Hub platform. Thus, it is possible to identify the list of devices allowed to perform parameters requests for managing the other device. When a command is triggered, a list of devices is shown, but for security reasons, some devices omit that information, and it is not completely identified. Sometimes, the name of the application is not identified, for privacy reasons, and only the MAC address of the devices is displayed. The functionality of sending parameters is the most complex compared to other developments on the IoT Central Hub platform. This function is intended to be the principal added value to future developments. This function opens a line of research to explore numerous possibilities to add new

Fig. 6.3 IoT Central Hub functionalities

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functionalities and enrich the IoT Central Hub application even more. For the development of the functionality of sending parameters, it was necessary to create an additional screen to allow better usability to the user and brings better benefits to the application. Thus, as shown in Fig. 6.3, it is possible to identify the features developed for sending messages and new parameters to the connected device. In addition, you can automatically check the battery level function already added to the application that the local device is automatically identified. Then, when a new device is connected, it is updated with the battery level information of the new device. On the second screen developed to IoT Central Hub platform is the main functionality of the application, sending a message to the remote device, checking the battery status of the local and remote device, and sending parameters to the others.

6.3.3 IoT Central Hub Evaluation The IoT Central Hub platform was moved to a controlled environment for user tests and evaluations. Numerous tests were carried out to certify the instability of the system and the ratification of results expected. In addition, some domestic users were chosen completely randomly based on technical profiles such as ages, education level and areas of activity. Regarding age, the interviewees were grouped by intervals that could facilitate the results of the research. Thus, they were grouped as follows: group one has people aged between sixteen and twenty years. In group two, there were people aged between twenty-one and twenty-five. In group three, there were participants from twenty-six to thirty and, to finish, group four covers people between thirty-one and fifty-five years old. The research aims to select people in the most varied ways possible to have a wide understanding of satisfaction level, acceptability, usability, adaptability, and functionality. Within these home user groups, there are two people from technology, four from social humans’ studies and communications, two from marketing, two from finance, and two non-graduates. The age range is between sixteen and fifty-five and everyone over twenty is active in the labor market at the moment of the survey. The tests elaborated on the prototype of the IoT Central Hub platform were carried out in the same way by the developer and the survey respondents. The test with the developer was prepared in person and with the results monitoring to be added into the survey, while the tests with the invited people were prepared virtually, with assistance at certain specific times according to their needs to the research. In the environment assisted by the developer, two smart devices from the Samsung brand were used, being a smartphone model Galaxy A41 (version: SM-A415F/DSN) and a tablet model Galaxy S6 (version: SM-P610), both using technology connectivity Bluetooth, with the smartphone configured as the client and the tablet as the server. Both devices were used to collect and send data to each other, sending data about the battery status of the connected devices. After installation, the user moved to the next stage of using the application, connecting, and using the functionalities available in the IoT Central Hub application. The people who classified the application as easier to use are between groups one and two when they

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did not get any explanation. However, after explaining the use and the interference during use, participants in groups three and four performed better.

6.4 Conclusions This research work was able to present the IoT Central Hub platform prototype fully usable and testable by the user, creating a heterogeneous, scalable, and good usability solution. The platform also allows a huge range of expandability of functionality and integration modules to new features to be added. Thus, the developed prototype gives rise to ample study possibilities for future system improvements. Finally, the IoT Central Hub platform presented the results of the tests performed by the developer and by users such as good features performance and the usability that was proposed at the beginning of the research. Thus, we can conclude that the smart device management platform can be installed and implemented to be used by domestic users with less complexity.

References 1. Vasseur, J., Dunkels, A.: The 6LoWPAN adaptation layer. In: Interconnecting Smart Objects with IP—The Next Internet, Chap. 16, pp. 230–249 (2010) 2. Gubbi, J., Buyya, R., Marusic, S., Palaniswami, M.: Internet of Things (IoT): a vision, architectural elements, and future directions. Futur. Gener. Comput. Syst. 29(7), 1645–1660 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2013.01.010 3. Atzori, L., Iera, A., Morabito, G.: The Internet of Things: a survey. Comput. Netw. 54(15), 2787–2805 (2010) 4. Dave Evans, A.: Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) A Internet das Coisas Como a próxima evolução da Internet está mudando tudo (2011) 5. Ma, M., Wang, P., Chu, C.H.: Data management for internet of things: Challenges, approaches and opportunities. In: Proceedings—2013 IEEE International Conference on Green Computing and Communications and IEEE Internet of Things and IEEE Cyber, Physical and Social Computing, GreenCom-IThings-CPSCom, vol. 2013, pp. 1144–1151 (2013) 6. Chen, S., Xu, H., Liu, D., Hu, B., Wang, H.: A vision of IoT: applications, challenges, and opportunities with China Perspective. IEEE Internet Things J. 1(4), 349–359 (2014). https:// doi.org/10.1109/JIOT.2014.2337336 7. Chaqfeh, M.A., Mohamed, N.: Challenges in middleware solutions for the internet of things. In: Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Collaboration Technologies and Systems, CTS 2012, pp. 21–26 (2012) 8. Asthon, K.: That ‘Internet of Things’ Thing. RFID J. 4986 (2010) 9. Marotta, M.A., Carbone, F.J., De Santanna, J.J.C., Tarouco, L.M.R.: Through the internet of things—a management by delegation smart object aware system (MbDSAS). In: Proceedings— International Computer Software and Applications Conference, June, pp. 732–741 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1109/COMPSAC.2013.122 10. Miorandi, D., Sicari, S., De Pellegrini, F., Chlamtac, I.: Internet of things: vision, applications and research challenges. Ad Hoc Netw. 10(7), 1497–1516 (2012)

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11. Yin, X., Liu, J., Cheng, X., Zeng, B., Xiong, X.: A low-complexity design for the terminal device of the urban IoT-oriented heterogeneous network with ultra-high-speed OFDM processing. Sustain. Cities Soc. 61(March), 102323 (2020) 12. Delicato, F.C., Pires, P.F., Batista, T.: Middleware solutions for the Internet of Things. In: Automation Control—Theory and Practice (2013). http://link.springer.com/10.1007/ 978-1-4471-5481-5%0A, http://www.intechopen.com/books/automation-control-theory-andpractice/challenges-of-middleware-for-the-internet-of-things 13. Nakagawa, E.Y., Oliveira Antonino, P., Becker, M.: Reference architecture and product line architecture: A subtle but critical difference. In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (Including Subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), vol. 6903, LNCS, pp. 207–211 (2011) 14. Kramp, T., van Kranenburg, R., Lange, S.: Introduction to the internet of things. In: Enabling Things to Talk: Designing IoT Solutions with the IoT Architectural Reference Model (2013)

Chapter 7

Sweat as a Testing Analytical Fluid for Emotions and Stress Biomarkers Detection Cristina M. Cordas, M. João Nunes, Gabriel N. Valério, Alejandro Samhan-Arias, Ludwig Krippahl, José J. G. Moura, Gilda Santos, João P. Sousa, and Carlos Rouco Abstract Human emotions using analytical methods and biomarkers are a recent field with increasing relevance, not only in the military context but also in the society. Both physical and psychological stress have been related to several disorders including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The control of emotions and stress is of extreme importance for the military, for the adjustment of operational conditions, minimization of risks for health and to attain better succeed operations. The current study is part of the project Stressense that aims to detect novel stress biomarkers, by non-invasive methodologies, using sweat, for the development of real-time monitoring devices, integrated in wearables. Military volunteers took part of a case of study that allowed to identify new molecules with potential to be stress biomarkers, present both in sweat and blood or detected only in sweat. For some set of molecules, good correlation was achieved between the results attained in stress and rest conditions. Taking in consideration the results, the development of an in situ wearable will be the next step of the project.

C. M. Cordas · M. J. Nunes · G. N. Valério · J. J. G. Moura LAQV, REQUIMTE, Department of Chemistry, NOVA School of Science and Technology, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus de Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal A. Samhan-Arias Departamento de Bioquímica, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid e Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas ‘Alberto Sols’ (CSIC-UAM), C/Arturo Duperier 4, 28029 Madrid, Spain L. Krippahl NOVA-LINCS, Departamento de Informática, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, NOVA, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal G. Santos CITEVE, Centro Tecnológico das Indústrias Têxtil e do Vestuário de Portugal, Rua Fernando Mesquita, nº 2785, 4760-034 Vila Nova de Famalicão, Portugal J. P. Sousa · C. Rouco (B) CINAMIL, Academia Militar, Rua Gomes Freire, 1150-244 Lisboa, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_7

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7.1 Introduction Biomarkers’ detection is an important field of research [1] since it allows the development of new methods and devices with interest not only in medicine but also in different areas, in which the military is included. It now recognized that physical and psychological stress are related with physical and mental disorders including post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The control of stress and, naturally, the emotions, is of extreme relevance for military activities. This control will allow to adjust operational conditions, minimizing risks and achieve better succeed operations. For this goal, biomarkers detection is a key step and less invasive methods using sweat or saliva have been pursued to replace blood analysis, enabling measurement to be more comfortable (and easier accepted by the people), faster, low cost and in situ. In the current project, direct measurements were attained in sweat, allowing the detection and monitoring of molecules with potential to be used as stress biomarkers and to further develop an in situ sensor. Previously, a method was developed for potential stress biomarkers detection in sweat by classic analytical methods, such as LC-MS/MS, that allowed to identify the molecules present in sweat. In this study, 26 molecules with potential to be stress biomarkers were found [2]. Also, a study to define the best conditions of sampling (directly without any inducer) was attained, namely by using either vials and patches for in or after physical training and patches for rest conditions. This study allowed to understand the possible interferences to be expected due to the sampling itself [3]. Content variations were found in sweat between some molecules in rest and physical training (physical stress). The goal of the project is to attain a suitable sensor for in situ detection of these sets of molecules that can be related with stress conditions. One of the most efficient detection methods is using electrochemical techniques. As so, an electrochemical study of the individual molecules and sets of molecules was attained aiming to retrieve its redox features and dependence with specific experimental conditions [4]. This is a critical point to enable the construction of an electrochemical-based sensor. The influence of in situ experimental conditions, namely pH, in the potential value and current intensity of each of the molecules is important to be studied, since individual differences are expected [5]. In this manuscript, results of sets of potential molecules to be used as stress biomarkers and its variation between rest and physical training conditions are presented. The analysis attained with blood gives important information on the interdependency of such molecules and its correlation. The non-invasive sweat analysis, applied to these sets of molecules, shows to agree to the blood results, opening the route to the real application of the developed methodology.

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7.2 Materials and Methods 7.2.1 Chemicals All chemical reagents used in the present study were of analytical grade, obtained from commercial suppliers. The standards and buffer were purchased from Sigma Aldrich® . All working solutions were obtained with ultrapure Milli-Q water (18 M cm−1 ).

7.2.2 Sampling Biological samples were attained from healthy male military cadet students’ volunteers (males, ages 22–23 years) that signed an informed consent. The data is completely anonymous, in agreement with the project protocols accepted by Universidade Nova de Lisboa Ethics Commission and the Portuguese Army. Blood samples were attained by the Portuguese Army Hospital clinical personnel and the subsequent analysis was performed by a certified analysis clinic. Sweat samples were attained using patches for in rest and during exercise (“Marcor” physical training; the cadet students wearing uniforms and carrying their weapons), and sterile glass vials were used for sweat sampling after exercise. The skin areas were previously cleansed.

7.2.3 Analytical and Electrochemical Methods The analytical methods detail for sampling biological blood and sweat is described elsewhere [3]. Sweat fingerprint analysis was performed by electroanalytical measurements for biomarkers response using differential pulse voltammetry (DPV). This sweat analysis was fulfilled using multiwalled carbon nanotubes (carboxyl funcionalized), CNT acquired from Dropsens/Metrohm® . The electrochemical data was acquired using an AUTOLAB PGSTAT 30 Potentiostat/Galvanostat and handled with GPES® or NOVA 2.1 Metrohm® software. The electrochemical parameters details are described elsewhere [4]. The sweat samples were analyzed by LC–MS/MS using a Dionex® Ultimate 3000 System UHPLC + focused system coupled to a TSQ QuantisTM triple-stage quadrupole mass spectrometer (Thermo Scientific, Waltham, MA), using parameters previously selected [2, 3].

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7.2.4 Data Statistical Analysis Blood statistical correlations and principal component analysis (PCA) were performed using MetaboAnalyst software (v. 5.0). MetaboAnalyst is a comprehensive platform dedicated for metabolomics data analysis via user-friendly, web-based interface (https://www.metaboanalyst.ca/ accessed on 15th April 2022). This statistical was made with Pareto normalization for blood concentrations with a set of 9 analytes and 44 samples, 22 participants in rest and 22 participants after exercise. The 9 analytes under concern are phenylalanine (Phe), tryptophan (Trp), tyrosine (Tyr), dopamine (DA), serotonin (5-HT), epinephrine (E), norepinephrine (NE), creatinine (Create) and cortisol (Cor). The graphical analysis of blood for time series box and whisker plots and sweat electrochemical data plots were performed using Microsoft Excel® from Microsoft 365® software.

7.3 Results and Discussion 7.3.1 Blood Results The time series results of the blood samples taken in rest and exercise (for 22 volunteers) are presented considering the main selected set of biomarkers [3], tryptophan (Trp), tyrosine (Tyr), phenylalanine (Phe) and serotonin (5-HT), presented in Fig. 7.1 using box and whisker plots. It is possible to observe the clear variation between the rest, R, and physical stress (E, from exercise). Also, from the blood samples analysis, it can be observed that some of the target molecules sets have a strong correlation between them, as can be observed in Fig. 7.2. The statistical analysis data using the blood clinical results was performed for some of the biomarkers considered as most promising, namely: phenylalanine (Phe), tryptophan (Trp), tyrosine (Tyr), dopamine (DA), serotonin (5-HT), epinephrine (E), norepinephrine (NE), creatinine (Creat) and cortisol (Cor). Data was normalized using Pareto scaling (mean-centered and divided by the square root of standard deviation of each variable). Results are presented for correlation and PCA analysis. From the overall correlation heatmaps, Fig. 7.2, it is possible to deduce some significant findings, namely: • strong correlations (0.6 < R < 1 and − 1 < R < − 0.6) are only observed for negative correlations between the pairs Phe and Cor; Trp and Cor; Da and Cor; E and Cor; pointing out that Cor has a negative trend with the concentration of Phe, Trp; DA and E in blood; • medium correlations (0.4 < R < 0.6 and − 0.6 < R < 0.4) are observed for positive correlations between the pairs Phe and Tyr, Phe and Trp and negative correlations are observed between the pairs Tyr and 5-HT, 5-HT and E;

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Fig. 7.1 Box and whisker plots for the molecules a 5-HT, b Tyr, c Trp and d Phe found from the blood analysis attained before and after the “Marcor” training

• weak correlations (0.2 < R < 0.4 and − 0.4 < R < − 0.2) only positive trends are observed between the pairs Trp and NE; Trp and Creat; 5-HT and NE; 5-HT and Creat; NE and Create. Notwithstanding, these results clearly evidence that, for the selected biomarkers, the blood concentrations variance is related and associated during rest and exercise with positive and negative trends. Also, as can be observed in Fig. 7.2, for instance, cortisol, although being one the established stress biomarkers, presents a negative correlation with most of the other target molecules. However, other correlations can be pointed out such as between Tyr and 5-HT. Also, from the blood analysis results, it is possible to observe different molecules variations with statistical significance between the rest and physical stress conditions as presented in Fig. 7.3. The plot scores for PCA statistical analysis using MetaboAnalyst are represented, showing the percentage of variation described by the PCs in each data set for rest (R) and exercise (E) physical states The analysis of the score plots immediately revealed that two significant components were identified, explaining the 67.1% and the 13.6% of the total variance, respectively at a confidence level. Thus, it may be said that characteristic patterns are associated with certain biomarkers by reducing variable numbers based on their correlation with a

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Fig. 7.2 Correlation heatmap for the target molecules found in the blood analysis

principal component (PC). Using SPSS statistical data reduction factorial analysis in PC1, the identified biomarkers are Phe, Tyr, Trp and Cor, and in PC2, the identified biomarkers are NE, Creat and 5-HT. The results from the blood analysis, in general, clearly point out an increase in blood of the content for this set of molecules between rest and exercise.

7.3.2 Sweat Results The sweat samples attained in rest, during the physical training (“Marcor” exercise) and after the exercise, were electrochemically analyzed using the DPV technique and using the samples on CNT SPE electrodes, using a methodology previously described [4].

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Fig. 7.3 Score plots of PCA analysis of blood concentrations biomarkers in rest (R) and exercise (E). Colored circles represent 95% confidence intervals. Colored dots represent individual samples. Principal components (PC) 1 corresponding to Phe, Tyr, Trp and Cor and 2, to NE, Creat and 5-HT

The plots of the average results are shown in Fig. 7.4. The working potential window selected was from 0.6 to 1.6 V, where the signal to noise ratio is higher, and no significative interferences were observed. In Fig. 7.4a, for the rest condition, three major large peaks are detected. These peaks result from the response of multiple molecules present in the samples. The comparison with the values attained either for the individual biomarkers [4], and the simulated sets of the different molecules led to conclude that the major components are for the (a) the peak centered at + 0.9 V: Tyr, 5-HT and Trp, (b) for the second peak centered at 1.3 V: DA, 5-HT metabolites and (c) the third peak centered at + 1.5 V: cortisol. In Fig. 7.4b (after exercise), the two first major large peaks are observed. Also, in Fig. 7.4b, it seems that cortisol is detected but in a more positive potential. The variation of the position of the peaks depends also on the overall sweat composition, including pH and sodium chloride. These are factors still under study and will not be detailed in the current work. From the rest to the exercise samples, it is possible to observe a variation of these molecules’ levels. However, the results from the vials must be taken with caution since the sampling method is different and is still under study. It is important to highlight, though, the molecules variation as a set is confirmed by DPV. Other molecules’ sets and potential regions are under study to correlate with the results obtained with the blood clinical samples.

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Fig. 7.4 Average of the DPV responses of the samples’ pool as-obtained, in different conditions, are shown, after baseline correction for better comparison, namely a rest and b after exercise; DPV parameters: modulation time 50 ms, interval time 0.5 s, step potential 5 mV, modulation amplitude 25 mV, scan rate 10.2 mV.s−1 . The control is shown for comparison (gray line)

7.4 Conclusion The blood clinical samples revealed to be possible to use set of molecules to study the variation of concentration between physical states, namely rest and a physical training associated with stress. Also, using electrochemical simple techniques and very simple and low-cost electrodes, it was possible to attain variations of the content of sweat, associated with different physical conditions and stress. This is an important result that allows the development of an electrochemical sensor that uses sweat directly without any pre-treatment and is based on the variation of the signal intensity for sets of molecules. The sensor in development is planned to be integrated in wearables. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia for financial support through Project PTDC/SAU-SOC/28390/2017 (STRESSSENSE). This work was supported by the Associate Laboratory for Green Chemistry-LAQV, with national funds from FCT/MCTES (UID/QUI/50006/2019). The authors also acknowledge the volunteers for participating in the current study and the military clinical staff for the blood sampling.

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References 1. Jia, M., Chew, W.M., Feinstein, Y., Skeath, P., Sternberg, E.M.: Quantification of cortisol in human eccrine sweat by liquid chromatography—tandem mass spectrometry. Analysts 141, 2053–2060 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1039/c5an02387d 2. Nunes, M.J., Cordas, C.M., Moura, J.J.G., Noronha, J.P., Branco, L.C.: Screening of potential stress biomarkers in sweat associated with sports training. Sports Med Open 7, 8 (2021). https:// doi.org/10.1186/s40798-020-00294-3 3. Nunes, M.J., Moura, J.J.G., Noronha, J.P., Branco, L.C., Samhan-Arias, A., Sousa, J.P., Rouco, C., Cordas, C.M.: Evaluation of sweat-sampling procedures for human stress-biomarker detection. Analytical 3, 178–194 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3390/analytica3020013 4. Nunes, M.J., Valério, G.N., Samhan-Arias, A., Moura, J.J.G., Rouco, C., Sousa, J.P., Cordas, C.M.: Screen-Printed electrodes testing for detection of potential stress biomarkers in sweat. Electrocatalysis. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12678-022-00709-7 5. Herrmann, F., Mandol, L.: Studies of Ph of sweat produced by different forms of stimulation. J. Investig. Dermatol. 24, 225–246 (1955). https://doi.org/10.1038/jid.1955.36

Chapter 8

Statistical Processing of Relationship Between Biomarkers and Disease Severity Caused by COVID-19 Infection-Delta Variant Milazim Shabani, Adem Musliu, Bekim Mustafa, Naim Baftiu, and Betim Maloku Abstract Severe infectious disease caused by acute respiratory syndrome, COVID19 (SARS-CoV-2), spread rapidly worldwide, infecting several million people. According to scientific data, the disease develops through several different stages. After 2–4 days of infection and disease development, the lower respiratory tract is attacked and in a relatively short time interstitial pneumonia develops in a certain number of patients (with genetic predisposition between 5 and 10% of cases). Patients infected with COVID-19 have symptoms such as very high temperatures, fever, persistent cough, joint and bone pain, in some cases diarrhea, and loss of appetite and taste. Disease monitoring should primarily include erythrocyte sedimentation rate, leukocyte count, leukocyte count formula, C-reactive protein (CRP), determination of troponin I (hsTnI) and T (cTnT) levels, N-terminal pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), fibrinogen, and D-dimer level. Previous studies have shown that in pneumonia developed from chronic and acute obstructive pulmonary infections, high levels of D-dimer are observed in patients, and it is suggested that this parameter can be used as a specific prognostic biomarker, and the values higher than > 1000 ng/ml represent increased risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19. Because vascular thrombosis affects the promotion of an unfavorable clinical progression for the patient, the identification of early and accurate predictors of the worst outcome seems to be essential for timely and appropriate anticoagulant M. Shabani · A. Musliu College “Biznesi”, Prishtina, Kosovo e-mail: [email protected] A. Musliu e-mail: [email protected] B. Mustafa Clinic of Pulmology, University Clinical Center of Kosovo, Prishtina, Kosovo N. Baftiu · B. Maloku (B) Faculty Computer Science, University “Ukshin Hoti”, Prizren, Kosovo e-mail: [email protected] N. Baftiu e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_8

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treatment in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Overall, these data suggest that acute myocardial damage, or heart failure, may be an important indicator of disease severity and adverse prognosis in patients with COVID-19.

8.1 Introduction All viruses including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, evolve over time [1]. When a virus repeats itself or makes copies of itself, it can change its properties, which is normal for viruses. These changes are called “mutations” [2]. A virus with one or more new mutations is called a “variant” of the basic virus. When a virus circulates widely in a population and causes many infections, the likelihood of mutation of the virus increases. The more conditions there are for a virus to spread, the more likely it is to undergo mutations. Most viral mutations have little effect on the virus’ ability to cause infections and disease [3]. But depending on the location of the changes in the genetic material of the virus, they can affect the properties of a virus in transmission, (spread) or the severity of causing disease (infections), more or less severe. Infectious diseases are characterized by the possibility of transmission to humans in one or more ways [4]. The new COVID-19-delta variant is a highly contagious mutation, associated with a significant rate of severe interstitial pneumonia and related complications, including respiratory failure, thrombosis, other organ failure, and death [5]. Many scientific papers also report the common occurrence of vascular and myocardial involvement in patients affected by the delta variant of COVID-19, leading to cardiac arrest and stroke [6]. Disease monitoring should primarily include erythrocyte sedimentation rate, leukocyte count, leukocyte count formula, C-reactive protein (CRP), determination of troponin I (hsTnI) and T (cTnT) levels, pro-B natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), fibrinogen, and D-dimer level [7]. Acute heart damage, manifested by elevated cardiac troponin blood levels, electrocardiographic abnormalities, or myocardial dysfunction, appears to be predominant in subgroups of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and other variants that appeared later [8–10]. Various clinical and radiological studies, as well as autopsy results in a number of patients after death, show that cases of venous thromboembolism can be found in almost one third of patients with severe forms of COVID-19 [11], while the presence of micro-thrombi and macrovascular in the pulmonary vessels is associated with diffuse alveolar damage seen in the majority of patients dying from COVID-19 [12]. Because vascular thrombosis affects the promotion of an unfavorable clinical progression for the patient, identifying early and accurate predictors of the worst outcome seems to be essential for timely and appropriate anticoagulant treatment in patients with CoV-2 infection [12]. From the experience of many doctors and scientific researchers, the disease in its most severe manifestations affects the cardiovascular system [13]. The data of many authors suggest that pulmonary and cardiac insufficiency, can be an important

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indicator of the severity of the disease and unfavorable prognosis in patients with COVID-19 [14]. COVID-19 vaccines that are currently under development or approved by the WHO are expected to provide at least some protection against new variants of the virus because these vaccines elicit a broad immune response, which involves the development of a range of antibodies. In case, any of these vaccines turn out to be less effective against one or more variants, then it will be necessary to make changes in the composition of vaccines to protect against these variants in the future. Data on new variants of the COVID-19 virus and the effectiveness of various vaccines continue to be collected and analyzed by WHO and researchers to slow down or stop the spread of the virus in order to prevent mutations that may reduce efficacy of existing vaccines. Stopping the spread of the virus at the source remains key. Current measures to reduce transmission, including frequent hand washing, wearing a mask, physical distancing, good ventilation, and avoiding crowded places or indoors, continue to be applied against the development of new variants by reducing the spread of the virus and also by reducing the chances of the virus undergoing mutations.

8.2 Material and Methods Even before the outbreak of COVID-19, the health system of our country, but also of the countries around us, faced many managerial, financial, and other difficulties in the realization of all health services and obligations. Infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, can also cause other diseases, ranging from mild to severe, and in some cases complications can be fatal to the patient. People infected with the virus begin to have symptoms such as fever, chills, cough, and difficulty breathing, but spread can also be possible from infected but asymptomatic people. Of the first cases identified in China, December 2019, COVID-19 infections continued in Europe and Italy, respectively [15]. The first two cases of coronavirus in Italy were confirmed on January 31, 2020. They were two Chinese tourists who tested positive in Rome with coronavirus after tests performed [16]. One week later, an Italian man returned to Italy from Wuhan, China, was hospitalized and confirmed as the third patient with coronavirus in Italy, respectively, the first citizen from Europe. Infections quickly continued in Spain, France, Portugal, and other European countries [17].

8.3 Results and Discussion In Kosovo, the first two cases identified with COVID-19 with the delta variant were registered on June 29, 2021. Very soon infections with this variant began to spread

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throughout the territory of the Republic of Kosovo. Initially, all seriously ill patients were sent to the University Clinical Center of Kosovo, respectively, to the Infectious Diseases Clinic in Prishtina. But after filling all possible capacities in the Infectious Diseases Clinic, other clinics started to be filled with patients, including the Pulmonology Clinic, clinic of Sports Medicine and Internal Diseases Clinics, and other regional hospitals. At the Pulmonology Clinic, the first cases received with COVID-19-delta variant, started in early July, continuing in August and until now in September. In the Pulmonology clinic in the ambulance space, it is decided to accept cases with COVID-19 with this variant, where at the same time the triage is done, patients were placed in wards, therapy was prescribed, and laboratory tests were performed, ECG, and lung X-ray. Most of those infected with this virus were very serious cases coming from different regional hospitals in Kosovo. All patients admitted to this ward had very high values of erythrocyte sedimentation rate, CRP, and D-dimer. All hospitalized patients in addition to regular therapy needed oxygen for certain periods. Table 8.1 general data on admitted, cured, and deceased patients who were confirmed or suspected of having COVID-19-delta variant infection during July 2021 at the Pulmonology Clinic in Prishtina-University Clinical Center of Kosovo (Fig. 8.1). From Table 8.1, it can be seen that the number of patients who were hospitalized during July was relatively large and compared to June was much higher (109). Due to various reasons, e.g., delay in sampling, etc., the number of positive results with COVID-19 with PCR test was small, but the health condition of hospitalized was quite serious that resulted in 15 deaths during this month. Table 8.2 general data on admitted, cured, and deceased patients who were confirmed or suspected of having COVID-19-delta variant infection during August 2021 at the Pulmonology Clinic in Prishtina-University Clinical Center of Kosovo (Fig. 8.2). From Table 8.2, it can be seen that the number of patients during August 2021 with COVID-19 infection-delta variant is increasing and is significantly higher (197) compared to (109) during July, despite the positive non-confirmation for all patients with PCR test. There is a smaller number of deaths (10) than in July 2021 (15). Table 8.3 general data on admitted, cured, and deceased patients who were confirmed or suspected of having COVID-19-delta variant infection during until Table 8.1 COVID-19-delta variant—July 2021 Ward

Beds

Admissions

Releases

With 02

Healing days

Dead patients

Positive

A

17

21

17

21

104

4

21

B

18

14

23

32

254

3

14

C

15

18

26

27

193

3

19

D

11

17

18

13

72

2

22

Dermo

29

39

18

12

162

3

31

Total

90

109

102

105

785

15

107

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Fig. 8.1 COVID-19-delta variant—July 2021

Table 8.2 COVID-19-delta variant—August 2021 Ward

Beds

Admissions

Releases

With 02

Healing days

Dead patients

Positive

A

17

45

41

44

130

2

40

B

18

42

37

41

221

3

22

C

15

38

34

33

181

3

51

D

11

18

17

16

202

1

32

Dermo

29

54

34

53

214

1

47

Total

90

197

163

187

948

10

192

September 11, 2021, at the Pulmonology Clinic in Prishtina-University Clinical Center of Kosovo (Fig. 8.3). From Table 8.3, there is a noticeable decrease in patients admitted and treated in hospital, during the beginning of September, suspected of infection with COVID-19 variant delta, despite the results performed by the National Institute of Public Health, Prishtina. The measures taken by the Government of the Republic of Kosovo in cooperation with the National Institute of Public Health in Prishtina and the raising of civic awareness certainly contributed to the calming of the situation. In total, the number of patients hospitalized from the beginning of July 1, 2021, to September 11, 2021, was 376 patients with COVID-19 variant delta, in July there were 109 patients hospitalized, and 15 deaths. In August, there were 197 patients hospitalized and 10 deaths, while in September until the day 11 were hospitalized 70 patients and 3 deaths. The number of deaths since the onset of the appearance

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Fig. 8.2 COVID-19-delta variant—August 2021

Table 8.3 COVID-19-delta variant—until September 11, 2021 Ward

Beds

Admissions

Releases

With 02

Healing days

Dead patients

Positive

A

17

15

13

14

107

0

17

B

18

13

12

13

73

1

14

C

15

21

17

21

67

0

19

D

11

09

07

08

41

1

07

Dermo

29

12

11

10

62

1

12

Total

90

70

60

66

350

3

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of patients infected with the delta variant has been 28, of which 15 females and 13 males. Age of fatality cases: • • • •

From the age of 50–59, there have been − 1 deaths. From the age of 60–69, there have been − 6 deaths. From the age of 70–79, there have been − 14 deaths. From the age of 80–89, there have been − 7 deaths.

The percentage of the number of unvaccinated patients from the total number of patients hospitalized in the Pulmonology ward was 66.80%.

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Fig. 8.3 COVID-19-delta variant—until September 11, 2021

8.4 Conclusions All viruses, including the virus that causes COVID-19, evolve over time. When a virus makes copies of itself, it can change its properties, which is normal for viruses. These changes are called “mutations”. The new COVID-19-delta variant is a highly contagious mutation, associated with a significant rate of severe interstitial pneumonia and related complications, including respiratory failure, thrombosis, other organ failure, and death. The infection spreads systematically, affecting many other organs and eventually the progression of the disease leads to multiple organ failure, which ends in the death of the patient. Various clinical and radiological studies, as well as autopsy results in a number of patients after death, show that cases of venous thromboembolism can be found in almost one third of patients with severe forms of COVID-19, while the presence of micro-thrombi and macrovascular in the pulmonary vessels is associated with diffuse alveolar damage seen in the majority of patients dying from COVID19. Acute heart damage, manifested by increased levels of cardiac troponin (hsTnI) in the blood, very high levels of D-Dimer, electrocardiographic abnormalities, etc., occur in up to ~ 60% of hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19. From the statistical data of some authors from different hospitals, it results that patients with concomitant cardiovascular diseases resulted in the highest fatality rate (10.5%). COVID-19 vaccines that are currently under development or approved by the WHO are expected to provide at least some protection against new variants of the virus because these vaccines elicit a broad immune response, which involves the development of a range of antibodies.

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At the Pulmonology Clinic, the first cases received with COVID-19-delta variant started in early July, continuing in August and until now in September. In total, the number of patients hospitalized from the beginning of July 1, 2021, to September 11, 2021, was 376 patients with COVID-19 variant delta, in July there were 109 patients hospitalized, and 15 deaths. In August, there were 197 patients hospitalized and 10 deaths, while in September until the day 11 were hospitalized 70 patients and 3 deaths. The number of deaths since the onset of the appearance of patients infected with the delta variant has been 28, of which 15 females and 13 males. The age of fatal cases was from 50 to 89 years.

References 1. World Health Organization (WHO): Global Surveillance for human infection with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) 21 Jan 2020 (2020) 2. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC): Case definition and European surveillance for human infection with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) (2020) 3. World Health Organization: Removing obstacles to healthy development, World Health Organization report on infectious diseases (1999) 4. Lin, S.Y., Chen, H.W.: Infectious bronchitis virus variants: molecular analysis and pathogenicity investigation. Int. J. Mol. Sci. 18, 2030 (2017) 5. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: In the absence of SARS-CoV transmission worldwide: guidance for surveillance, clinical and laboratory evaluation, and reporting (2005). Accessed 02 Apr 2020 6. Ly, H.: Differential immune responses to new world and old world mammalian arenaviruses. Int. J. Mol. Sci. 18, 1040 (2017) 7. Agrewall, S., Giannitsis, E., Jernberg, T., et al:. Troponin elevation incoronary vs. non-coronary disease. Eur. Heart. J. 32(4), 404–411 (2011) 8. Shi, S., Qin, M., Shen, B., et al:. Association of cardiac injury with mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Ëuhan. JAMA Cardiol. China (2020) 9. Guo, T., Fan, Y., Chen, M., et al.: Cardiovascular implications of fatal outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Cardiol. e201017 (2020) 10. Zhou, F., Yu, T., Du, R., et al.: Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet 395, 1054–62 (2020). (Published correction appears in Lancet. 2020; 395:1038) 11. Zangrillo, A., Beretta, L., Scandroglio, A.M., et al.: Characteristics, treatment, outcomes and cause of death of invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19 ARDS in Milan, Italy. Crit Care Resusc. (2020). Published online ahead of print 23 Apr 2020 12. Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., et al.: Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan China. Lancet 395, 497–506 (2020) 13. Maiese, A., Passaro, G., Matteis, A., et al.: Thromboinflammatory response in SARS-CoV-2 sepsis. Medico-Legal J. 88(2), 78–80 (2020) 14. Bradley. B.T., Maioli, H., Johnston, R., et al.: Histopathology and ultrastructural findings of fatal COVID-19 infections in Washington State: a case series. Lancet 396, 320–32 (2020). (Published correction appears in Lancet. 2020; 396:312) 15. Grimes, Z., Bryce, C., Sordillo, E.M., et al.: Fatal pulmonary thromboembolism in SARS-CoV2-infection. Cardiovasc Pathol. 48, 107227 (2020)

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16. Elsevier.: Novel Coronavirus Information Center. Elsevier Connect. Archived from the original on 30 Jan 2020. Retrieved 15 Mar 2020 17. Reynolds, M.: What is coronavirus and how close is it to becoming a pandemic? Wired UK. ISSN 1357–0978. Archived from the original on 5 March 2020. Retrieved 5 Mar 2020 (2020)

Chapter 9

Sustainable Development in Higher Education Curricula for Software Engineering Chairs Jenny León-Toro , Jorge Buele , Valeria Maricruz Camino-Morejón , and Manuel Ayala-Chauvin Abstract Nowadays, society demands that high quality teaching practices must be part of the curriculum in higher education institutions. The interdisciplinarity view of the contents taught has made the technical aspects of engineering merge with social, cultural, and economic nuances. In this sense, the new generations of students show their interest in learning and carrying out activities that contribute to sustainability, for this reason, the inclusion of ecological themes in the subjects of computer science and software career is required. A bibliographical analysis was carried out that allowed recognition of main concepts and methodologies applied to the subject. As a result of them, an adjustment of chairs is presented allowing integrating conventional teaching with the new trends of green technology. Reforms were implemented from introductory courses to theoretical knowledge of green software, to the development of web applications with the same approach. In the same way, it involves the management of computer projects, modeling, monitoring, and optimization of resources, and green evaluation. According to the socio-educational model, the articulation between technology and sustainability will allow managing software projects that provide real solutions to problems in context.

J. León-Toro · J. Buele · M. Ayala-Chauvin (B) SISAu Research Group, Facultad de Ingeniería y Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] J. León-Toro e-mail: [email protected] J. Buele e-mail: [email protected] V. M. Camino-Morejón Language School, Zhongyuan Institute of Science and Technology, Xinzheng 450046, Henan, China M. Ayala-Chauvin Centro de Investigaciones de Ciencias Humanas y de la Educación, Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Ambato 180103, Ecuador © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_9

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9.1 Introduction Teaching in higher education is based on pedagogical models that allow guiding and directing teaching processes in an institutional context [1]. Therefore, it is important to use training resources, constant feedback, and evaluation of what has been assimilated [2]. A model with wide acceptance and good results is that of sociotraining, which seeks to promote training, research, linkage, and management [3]. From the investigative point of view, it emphasizes the resolution of real-world problems through the approach of interdisciplinary collaborative projects [4, 5]. Entrepreneurship, sustainable social development, cultural diversity, and inclusion are also promoted. The implementation of sustainable collaborative projects seeks to improve coexistence, quality of life, the economy, socioeconomic development, and the protection of biodiversity [3]. Within the socio-educational model, active participation in solving problems with a global, flexible, and systemic vision is encouraged [6]. Biodiversity is considered a key characteristic of human society to achieve socioeconomic development while respecting environmental sustainability [7]. This model can be applied in all careers and university training programs since it conceives the student as a generator of solutions. It is prioritized that the student acquires knowledge with awareness of the context of him, himself, and his ethical project of life [8]. In the same way, also know how to use what is in your environment to undertake, benefit you and your community. In particular, this document emphasizes the teaching–learning processes of the different chairs of the computer science and software career. Professionals responsible for developing software and promoting the use of these technologies have an important challenge regarding sustainability [9]. This not only involves reducing the environmental impact of technology but also seeking to implement solutions for the climate change that the planet is going through. The accelerated development of technologies has allowed software manufacturers to be increasingly ambitious concerning the products they generate, offering solutions that promote the optimization and reduction of resources in industrial settings. However, this has caused a constant renewal of equipment by users and a high rate of discarded hardware, with an impact on the environment. Likewise, global interconnectivity has an important influence on the high carbon emission in companies. It also highlights a wide variety of data unprecedented in the big data framework. This results in excessive demand for computing operations and servers. For all this, the evaluation of the environmental impact of companies must be included in information technology and software [10]. Environmental awareness has reached ICT departments and technology companies that seek to minimize the volume and transfer of data on their servers. With the use of efficient software, more than 95% of the data could be reduced, which also implies a reduction in the number of computer equipment and energy consumption. To achieve sustainable social development in the field of information systems, it is important to apply a sustainable design of information solutions. A knowledge that must be included in the classroom, committing future professionals to the

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preservation of the environment. Sustainability requires long-term thinking since it establishes that it is possible to recognize that the needs of future generations can be met without sacrificing the current generation. In the context of the above, this work seeks to carry out an analysis of how sustainable social development (the main axis of socio-training) can be applied in the teaching of software development. Finally, a proposal for change in the academic program is made, based on the curricular construction model. This paper consists of four sections, including the introduction in the first. Section 9.2 describes the proposed methodology and Sect. 9.3 the results. Finally, the conclusions are presented in Sect. 9.4.

9.2 Methodology The study program must be to the problems of today’s society, following the sociotraining educational model already mentioned. A serious mistake is that they are not updated and therefore become obsolete for the needs of students and companies. The changes seek professionals to generate independence, responsibility, and ingenuity to generate proposals with a technological, technical, scientific, and now environmental focus. To redesign the curriculum, a systematic construction model is used that seeks to establish an integral formation of individuals [11]. Curricular organization units (COU) are formed, which must satisfy the training requirements of a program. The training purposes must also be defined, with which the content of this program is established. The scheme of the methodology used is described in Fig. 9.1. Basic concepts analysis

Informaon analysis

Problem idenficaon

Bibliographic analysis

Surveys

Fig. 9.1 Methodology used to change the curriculum

Curriculum changes

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9.2.1 Basic Concept Analysis During the planning phase, conceptual foundations must be laid, which consolidate the ideas on the subject matter being addressed. Within the contents are sustainable social development, software development and sustainability, green technologies, and green software also green or emerging software engineering, green software, green business process management, green design and modeling, and green optimization.

9.2.2 Bibliographic Analysis The methodology provided begins with a bibliographical analysis, which allows the incorporation of internal and external knowledge. From the industrial point of view, [12] it is proposed to add, to the software product quality model proposed by ISO/IEC 25010, the characteristic of sustainability with three characteristics: energy consumption, resource optimization, and durability. While [13] mentions the green metrics to evaluate the energy efficiency of the system. This includes % the usage of the CPU, input/output devices and storage media, work performance, and system power usage (Kwh). The topics covered in universities, research centers, and public and private entities are also evaluated [14, 15]. Penzenstadler and Fleischmann [16] recognize that there are deep problems in preserving the planet’s resources and software engineers must take responsibility for it. That is why changes are proposed in the university curriculum, which includes information, activities, and projects with sustainable approaches. Similarly, [17] proposes that ecological and sustainable issues be introduced in software engineering chairs. This is due to the interest of millennials in learning and contributing to a society that respects the environment.

9.2.3 Problem Identification The defined problems have an environmental nature, where the need to implement changes in the mentality and skills of new professionals is denoted. Another drawback is the lack of updating of the higher-level systems engineering curriculum. Current trends, scientific publications, and socioeconomic analysis have made it possible to focus on the introduction of the study of sustainability and green energy in computer science as a general object of research.

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9.2.4 Surveys As a data collection technique, a survey is applied to the university community and the companies in the sector, to find out their thoughts and the need to make changes. Questions are formulated by teaching staff who have extensive industry experience in software development and sustainability, with advice from external staff. These questions seek to cover in detail the needs of the student, industry, and society.

9.2.5 Analysis of Information The information obtained allows for identifying the current situation and characterizing the study plan that will be proposed. A general-purpose is adopted, which will later be detailed in specific purposes. In general, critical thinking and the development of projects that value social, economic, cultural development, and sustainability are considered. With the answers to the survey, specific purposes are raised. Based on the thematic areas related to sustainability, the COUs are formed, where the contents, structures, and teaching methods are nurtured and completed. Twelve specific training purposes for systems engineering and sustainability are also defined.

9.2.6 Basic Subject Areas The bibliographical analysis, the proposals of other institutions at a national and regional level, and the institution’s own experience make it possible to identify general thematic areas and their concepts. In the basic component, it is proposed to link sustainability to the fundamentals of computing. They symbolize the base and support for the future components, which are implemented according to the proposed curricular model.

9.2.7 Professional Subject Areas They are compared with the specific purposes, thus forming the general themes of the program, where there must be an interaction between at least one purpose and a thematic area. In the present study, a brief review of the programmatic contents that are currently dealt with in the subjects of software engineering, web application development, mobile application development, and computer project management is made. Green software standards, models, and practices are defined in various computing disciplines and fields of technology. The development of the green software sector is also considered, encouraging the creation of reliable open-source and

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open-data projects that support the creation of green software applications. Finally, widespread adoption of green software in the industry is encouraged through ambassador programs, training and education leading to certification, and events aimed at facilitating its growth. To develop software, a development methodology must be followed that provides the technical expertise to develop software. The methodologies include a broad set of tasks such as requirements analysis, design modeling, program construction, testing, and support. According to the literature, there are references to sustainability in agile methodologies, so it is assumed that these provide benefits such as better product quality and customer satisfaction, a greater team-customer collaboration between team members, and relevant metrics to estimate the cost–benefit. Likewise, greater control and predictability of the project and risk reduction are generated, reducing the possibility of failure. Even when sustainability is not explicitly declared as a benefit, some of the measures linked to it could be enhanced, according [12].

9.3 Results 9.3.1 Initial Analysis As in all engineering, basic sciences allow the learning of fundamentals and essential concepts. The second component groups the intermediate knowledge that allows the achievement of competencies related to the merely professional environment and also interdisciplinary. While the last component encompasses the technological and scientific knowledge that allows the development of advanced solutions related to computer science. In this way, it is identified that the restructuring must be carried out at all levels so that there is a progressive adaptation to sustainability issues. It can be seen that the current contents do not have issues related to sustainability in software development. Technical issues such as the development of quality and functional products are studied, but the green approach is not addressed. Therefore, it is important and urgent that the teacher manage tasks and talks related to sustainability, to promote interest in students in the generation of useful and respectful products for the environment and society. The need to rethink the specific competencies of the current program is also identified.

9.3.2 Adjustment to Chairs It is proposed to achieve comprehensive training, for which three important components have been recognized. On the one hand, there is the basic software component and in a complementary way the basic-professional and the professional. Based on the analysis of the current contents and the state of the art, a proposal is made of

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the possible contents that the teachers of the aforementioned subjects should incorporate into the programmatic plans to achieve teaching-oriented to the design and production of software more ecological. As a case study, we have the Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, which as part of its constant improvement has identified that at the regional level there is inefficient professional training, with nuances of sustainable development. In this way, the necessary COUs are established in each of the three components, i.e., the essential contents to prepare a semester study plan. To provide a simpler teaching– learning service, the training purposes can be grouped into one or more COU. As a general objective, the adherence of concepts related to sustainability to the program has been proposed and as specific the new study plan is detailed below. In the explanation of the fundamentals of software engineering, agile methodologies and green metrics will be used for sustainable development, based on software quality standards, and the guidelines of each methodology acting responsibly. Contents include. • • • • •

Introduction to green software engineering. Software development methodologies. Agile methodologies: XP, SCRUM. Green metrics. ISO/IEC 25010 software quality model with sustainability feature.

In the development of web applications, the design of environmentally friendly applications is proposed, which allows dematerializing of the internal and external processes of companies, based on the needs of the user and the technical principles of the development language, acting with ethics and punctuality. The contents that are proposed are: • • • • • • • • •

Green software. Origins of green software. Web development using green programming. Web development with open-source tools. Tools and standards to measure the environmental impact of software. Generation and electronic distribution of documents. Virtualization of servers and computers. Cloud computing Distributed computing.

The professional component describes the management of IT projects and the identification of the tasks that are carried out during their design and implementation. The green BPM guidelines are considered, regarding the protection of the environment during the IT life cycle, to manage projects responsibly. For this, the following contents divided into three blocks should be considered. BM management activities in the green IT context: • Project planning. • Time, cost, and quality management.

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• Human resources management. Stages of the BPM life cycle in the context of green IT: • • • • •

Green design and modeling. Green execution. Green monitoring. Green alerts. Green optimization and evaluation.

Green BPM goals and objectives: • Reduction of environmental impact. • Change of the process life cycle.

9.3.3 Discussion The constant changes affecting the world order are oriented toward environmental degradation, wars, and consumerism. Social and political problems must be analyzed by current and future generations of professionals. Knowledge and technological development must be the basis for improving people’s quality of life. Higher education institutions should encourage the development of new skills that not only maintain a technical focus, but also care for nature and its preservation. This change has already been taking place, as shown in [11, 12]. However, there are still profound problems that technology is not considering. More waste is being generated and research is already being proposed that is in line with what we are proposing [13, 14]. In this way, future engineers will have a greater field of vision of the current situation and a better understanding of the contributions they must make. The focus should not only be focused on one perspective, but should be global, which means that there is a multidisciplinary collaborative work that eliminates geographic barriers. The relationship between peoples will improve and consequently will have direct positive repercussions on the planet. Nowadays, there are wars to obtain resources that are becoming increasingly scarce, but if there were a better administration it could be enough for everyone. Working together will allow nations to strengthen ties and improve world coexistence and security.

9.4 Conclusions Higher education seen from a socio-formative perspective faces new challenges that society has raised where education, technology, and sustainable development are articulated in an ecosystem. In this scenario, it is recommended to include in the planning of these chairs or careers the study of green software engineering and green software development, to teach students to develop real projects that solve context

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problems focused on offering sustainable development. Training a computer science professional is a great social, technological, and environmental responsibility that is inextricably linked to the economy. In addition, we are facing a global context of limited resources, so the best way to deal with this reality is to adapt the program contents of binding chairs with the development of green software. The systematic construction model that has been used allows planning and execution of a change in the curricular program. In this way, a redesign is proposed based on the existing problems in today’s society and the institution analyzed, and a precedent is set for the implementation of new models that are more accessible, scalable, and constantly improved. Although there are proposals that have focused on the development of complementary training courses, the change in the curricular structure is a broader issue. It requires a complete process in which an initial state is established and progressive changes are proposed, from basic to professional training. This contributes to the establishment of a comprehensive training program that verifies each stage of the curriculum construction process. Based on this, the different agents of the educational process allow us to understand that it is possible to apply sustainable social development in the teaching process, taking into account the approach of the socio-training teaching model, which is based on concrete actions, but with a global vision. That is to say, the classes must be worked by projects, they must be based on the resolution of context problems to generate significant changes in the community. Thus, we would be working for the formation of integrated people, not only full of knowledge but also acting based on values such as equity, respect, responsibility, and the care and conservation of life and nature. Limitations include the difficulty in obtaining information for the initial analysis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This was overcome with the implementation of online forms. On the other hand, it is difficult to achieve a change in the thinking of those teachers who have not seen curricular changes in years and some cases decades. Resistance to change is a factor that must be modified gradually and is an invitation to improve teaching processes. This pilot study will be launched immediately, so the authors of this study will continue to make contributions to this line of research. In the future work, it is proposed to carry out similar proposals in other branches of engineering. Similarly, since it is a model applicable to any field of knowledge, readers are invited to consider its application in other fields. Acknowledgements Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica for its support and financing under the project “Big data analysis and its impact on society, education and industry”.

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References 1. Buele, J., López, V.M., Franklin Salazar, L., Edisson, J.H., Reinoso, C., Carrillo, S., Soria, A., Andrango, R., Urrutia-Urrutia, P.: Interactive system to improve the skills of children with dyslexia: a preliminary study. Smart Innov. Syst. Technol. 152, 439–449 (2020). https://doi. org/10.1007/978-981-13-9155-2_35 2. García-Peñalvo, F.J., Mendes, A.J.: Exploring the computational thinking effects in preuniversity education. Comput. Human Behav. 80, 407–411 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.chb.2017.12.005 3. Saá, F., Caceres, L., Fuentes, E.M., Varela-Aldás, J.: Teaching-Learning in the industrial engineering career in times of COVID-19. In: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics), pp. 517–530 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77889-7_36 4. Drolet, J., Wu, H., Taylor, M., Dennehy, A.: Social work and sustainable social development: teaching and learning strategies for ‘green social work’ curriculum. Soc. Work Educ. 34, 528–543 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1080/02615479.2015.1065808 5. Varela-Aldás, J., Miranda-Quintana, O., Guevara, C., Castillo, F., Palacios-Navarro, G.: Educational robot using lego mindstorms and mobile device. In: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 71–82 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33614-1_5 6. Varela-Aldás, J., Buele, J., Jadan-Guerrero, J., Andaluz, V.H.: Teaching stem competencies through an educational mobile robot. Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. (including Subser. Lect. Notes Artif. Intell. Lect. Notes Bioinformatics) 12206(LNCS), 560–573 (2020). https://doi.org/10. 1007/978-3-030-50506-6_38. 7. Lukman, R., Glaviˇc, P.: What are the key elements of a sustainable university? Clean Technol. Environ. Policy. 9, 103–114 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-006-0070-7 8. Aldana, C., Revilla, M., Saavedra, Y., Mestanza, V., Palacios, C.: Post COVID-19 Global Macrotrends in the pedagogical practice to achieve student outcomes-’ICACIT’. In: Proceedings of 2020 IEEE International Symposium Accreditation Engineering Computer Education ICACIT 2020. (2020). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICACIT50253.2020.9277691 9. Schuler, S., Fanta, D., Rosenkraenzer, F., Riess, W.: Systems thinking within the scope of education for sustainable development (ESD)–a heuristic competence model as a basis for (science) teacher education. J. Geogr. High. Educ. 42, 192–204 (2018). https://doi.org/10. 1080/03098265.2017.1339264 10. Lee, S.H., Park, S., Kim, T.: Review on investment direction of green technology R&D in Korea. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 50, 186–193 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015. 04.158 11. Giraldo, G.L., Giraldo, G.A.U.: Construcción de currículos de ingeniería basados en problemas y orientados a la formación integral. Rev. Ing. Univ. Medellín. 9, 71–89 (2010) 12. Calero, C., Moraga, M.A., Bertoa, M.F.: Towards a software product sustainability model. (2013) 13. Kocak, S.A.: Green software development and design for environmental sustainability. In: In 11th International Doctoral Symposium an Empirical Software Engineering (2013) 14. Alonso-García, S., Aznar-Díaz, I., Cáceres-Reche, M.P., Trujillo-Torres, J.M., RomeroRodríguez, J.M.: Systematic review of good teaching practices with ICT in Spanish higher education trends and challenges for sustainability. Sustainable 11, 7150 (2019). https://doi.org/ 10.3390/su11247150 15. Porras, J., Seffah, A., Rondeau, E., Andersson, K., Klimova, A.: PERCCOM: A master program in pervasive computing and COMmunications for sustainable development. In: Proceeding— 2016 IEEE 29th Conference Software Engineering Education and Training, CSEEandT 2016, pp. 204–212 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1109/CSEET.2016.39

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Chapter 10

Evaluation of Digital Skills. Educating Middle School and High School Students on Cyber Risks Lidice Haz , Jaime Moises Minchala Marquino , Yolanda Molineros , and Estefania Vargas Abstract Information and communication technologies (ICT) have become essential tools for developing work, academic, entertainment, and personal life activities. Therefore, the use of ICTs is fundamental skills for the socio-technological development of a community. In this sense, the responsible and safe use of ICT should be promoted from the academy. The objective of this work is to evaluate the level of knowledge about the threats present on the Internet for minors. Also, the use of computer security mechanisms is promoted, and the importance of managing data privacy and digital identity is addressed. In this sense, the key to guaranteeing the safe use of ICTs lies in the digital awareness of those who use them. Therefore, the proposal of this research was carried out through a didactic intervention aimed at students of middle school and high school. In general, the results show a greater interest and improvement regarding the safe use of ICTs, by reducing exposure to risks during Internet use.

10.1 Introduction The current reality of the so-called information and knowledge societies lies in the need to always stay connected to the network. In recent years, there has been great development and innovation in the use of ICTs, and especially the Internet [1]. This has a considerable impact on the socioeconomic and socio-technological development of people. This promotes and assists a complete change in culture, communication, economy, work environment, and both personal and group customs [2]. The Internet has become an essential medium for academic development, personal knowledge, and interpersonal relationships [3]. New technologies have eliminated L. Haz (B) · J. M. M. Marquino Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena, Santa Elena, La Libertad, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] Y. Molineros · E. Vargas Universidad de Guayaquil, Guayas, Guayaquil, Ecuador © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_10

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the barriers of space and time, facilitating communication, and access to information from anywhere. Globalization and changes in the different areas of communication have led to an early adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) among children and adolescents. This situation entails the exposure to risks and threats derived from the misuse of ICTs [4]; understood the risk as “the possibility of harm to the minor (…) based on their own criteria” [5]. Therefore, it is necessary to implement new strategies to educate in the proper use of ICT and to facilitate the prevention and treatment of the risks to which minors are exposed. The use of technological devices such as video games, tablets, and smartphones connected to the Internet are part of children’s daily lives, whether at home or in educational institutions. The advantages offered by ICT innovations favour technological skills in minors; however, negative experiences also increase as a consequence of their inappropriate use [6]. The Internet, in addition to offering multiple benefits, has also promoted the development of digital crime [7]. This network contains risks, and its use without knowledge or criteria can result in conflictive and very dangerous situations [8]. Minors, due to their ingenuity and lack of judgment, lack the resources to respond in situations that may put their image, their identity, and even their health at risk. This makes them weak users when faced with the dangers of the Internet [9]. In this sense, it can be affirmed that the risks to which minors are exposed respond to the conditions of the context related to habits, skills, ease of access to ICTs, family support, socioeconomic, and cultural possibilities. From this perspective, it is important to promote the safe use of technology by developing digital competence and awareness of Internet risks; in addition to encouraging the implementation of computer security mechanisms and tools that allow controlling the privacy of their information [10], as well as being aware of the dangers to which they are exposed through the use of the Internet [11].

10.2 Internet Risks Access to the Internet and various technological devices is very frequent among minors. These actions generate interest and concern for teachers and parents. They have the task of educating and accompanying them, knowing the risks they face when using the Internet and technologies [12]. Minors need to develop skills and attitudes to relate and communicate through the use of the Internet and technology [13]. The acquisition of these skills becomes a security measure that will help children avoid inappropriate behavior that affects their integrity and emotional development; in addition to minimizing exposure to risks and dangers present on the Internet [14]. The use of the Internet is, without a doubt, very widespread, both in the general population and in the minors’ population. The study presented by EU Kids Online, shows that more than 32% of minors have seen inappropriate and harmful content on the Internet; 33% have experienced some form of bullying; 26% have received

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sexual messages; 40% have contacted strangers online; and 19% have met in person with an Internet contact [15]. In this context, the most common risks to which minors are exposed are the following; cyberbullying (harassment), sexting (threats against privacy), grooming (sexual harassment), phishing (deception); viewing of inappropriate content (drugs, weapons, eating disorders, suicides, racism, etc.), and addiction [16–18]. Most of these risks are closely related to privacy and digital identity. The privacy of individuals is a topic of historical discussion. The Internet minimizes the right to privacy, since at least all people are exposed to a minimal appearance on the network, whether authorized or not, and managed by the person himself or by third parties [19]. This situation promotes the importance of managing digital identity [20]. Digital identity is defined as the information that a person publishes about himself on the network; however, digital identity also implies everything that the Internet shows about someone. The digital identity is made up of the content published by the person himself, and everything published by third parties regarding the name and/or image [21–23]. Digital identity is social, subjective, valuable, referential, composed, dynamic, and changing according to the context [20]. In this sense, digital identity is totally subject to the online reputation of each person and, as a consequence, it can positively or negatively influence our daily lives or our future lives [22]. Therefore, “devoting effort to building your own digital identity is no longer optional, it is an act of pure responsibility” [24]. It is essential to take care of comments related to people’s lives in order to guarantee proper management of privacy, digital identity, and online reputation. Another problematic situation in teenagers is that they count their popularity with the number of friends they have or the approval of their posts [25]. At this point, it is important to differentiate the possible popularity in social networks from a possible leak of your privacy [26]. Likewise, protection against malicious programs and electronic fraud is necessary, since ICTs facilitate the committing of this type of crime [27]. Another risk for minors is the physical deterioration to which they may be exposed due to the development of addictive behaviors of Internet use. Addiction is characterized by the appearance of three main symptoms: tolerance, withdrawal, and dependence. Experts indicate that the problem appears when this addiction to technology prevents the person from leading their daily life normally, by subordinating their obligations to technology [28]. Also, they may present other health-related problems such as certain pains or syndromes that were previously relegated to certain trades or advanced ages; for example, the popular “blackberry finger,” carpal tunnel syndrome and “tennis elbow,” computer visual syndrome (VIS), hearing problems, and/or cervical discomfort [29].

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10.3 Methodology To respond to the stated objectives, a case study was developed that involved an academic intervention. The focus of the research was quantitative with a descriptive scope. To collect the information, different strategies were implemented; this in order to know the digital reality in these ages, this process was developed in a participatory way and shared with the students. The methodology used allowed us to understand the realities expressed and the situations experienced during the use of ICTs, the Internet, and social networks.

10.3.1 Participants Four schools from the province of Santa Elena, Ecuador participated in the research. The number of beneficiary students of the project was 922, of which 434 are men and 488 are women; in ages from 9 to 17 years old, being the range between 15 and 17 years the highest percentage (63%).

10.3.2 Instruments In order to give concrete answers to the objectives set out in the research, two techniques were used observation and survey. The information collected was regarding the habits of ICT use, the perception of risks and the level of training, interest, and concern of the students. The first instrument was through observation tables that allowed collecting information during the training sessions following pre-established categories. The second instrument was six questionnaires, the first was applied prior to the training process in order to know the main habits of ICT use, experiences lived on the network and training related to Internet risks; and the other five at the end of each thematic unit, whose objective was a self-assessment of the knowledge acquired in each unit studied; in addition to the assessment of the didactic proposal through the sessions taught. For data analysis, electronic data processing was applied using a spreadsheet; the tables and graphs were presented by questions and indicators, in each case the absolute and accumulated frequencies were calculated, with the respective descriptive analysis of the results obtained as a result of the application of the questionnaires.

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10.3.3 Didactic Proposal “Safe Technology” The proposal was developed through the design of a multimedia guide related to the responsible and safe use of ICT. The objective of the didactic proposal called “secure technology” was to promote and integrate a responsible computer culture by raising students’ awareness of the use of ICTs; and, with it, develop and strengthen a critical and responsible attitude toward their use. For which, it was necessary to identify the different risks of the Internet, to know the digital identity and to implement mechanisms and computer security tools necessary to minimize the materialization of Internet risks and guarantee the safe use of technology. The proposal was to comply with a total of 40 h of training given to students from the different educational units that participated in the project. The didactic structure of the “secure technology” multimedia guide included five thematic units: (1) Internet and digital platforms, (2) Internet risks for minors, (3) criminals and pedophiles in social networks, (4) responding to unwanted threats on the Internet, and (5) techniques and tools to protect privacy. These contents were designed, integrated, and published on the website www.tecnologiasegura.org, Fig. 10.1 shows the home page of the project. The technical design of the multimedia guide was carried out in four phases: planning, pre-production, production, and post-production. In the planning phase, the material to be published in the guide and the tools to be used were analyzed, according to the following activities: • Selection of content • Selection of tools for video editing and production, and the graphic environment of the website • Publishing of the thematic units on the website • Video integration tests and graphic environment on the website.

Fig. 10.1 Website home page www.tecnologiasegura.org

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In the pre-production phase, the layout designs of the website were chosen, and the conversion tools to video formats were also selected: • PowerPoint, for textual presentation • Camtasia Studio for conversion to video formats • HTML, CSS, and JavaScript language for the graphic environment of interaction with the user. The production phase was carried out according to the format selected for the textual environment of the multimedia guide. The duration of all the content of the website had an approximate time of three months prior to the start of the training. Finally, in the post-production phase, the following steps were carried out: • Review and editing of website content • Video and image resolution enhancement • Integration of videos and graphic environment. Finally, this project served to develop and improve digital skills in students; in addition to promoting a responsible and safe socio-technological culture regarding the use of ICTs. In addition to achieving the following objectives: • Acquire training on digital platforms and computer security. • Develop skills in students that allow them to identify risky situations on the Internet. • Reinforce attitudinal values in a group, coexistence, and respect in the use of digital media. • Know the risks to which they are exposed on the Internet and how to act to minimize them. • Promote the responsible use of information and communication technologies. • Assess the use and dissemination of information on the web.

10.4 Results The data obtained in the questionnaire carried out show that the use of ICT is a habitual activity for all students. The vast majority (72%) acknowledge having a sufficient level of mastery in the use and application of ICT (Fig. 10.2). Regarding the number of daily hours connected to the Internet, it was found that 55.1% spend more than 8 h daily connected to the Internet, followed by 28.6% who connect more than 12 h daily, and 29.1% less than 4 h daily. They also expressed that they mostly use the Internet to search for information, access social networks, and carry out virtual education activities. The most used tools are the personal mobile phone and the personal computer with Internet access. In other words, the use of personal devices predominates in relation to the devices shared by the rest of the members of the same family. Regarding the use of social networks, 64.5% indicated that they use social networks. Of this group, the vast majority have at least two active accounts on Facebook, Instagram, and/or

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Fig. 10.2 Mastery level in the use of ICTs

Twitter. In addition, 18.5% use a public profile and do not know the level of privacy of their profile. Regarding the frequency with which they use social networks to meet new people and make friends, 33.2% indicated that they almost always use it, followed by 53% who do so occasionally (Fig. 10.3). Regarding the knowledge of risks and threats on the Internet, the students said they knew about cyberbullying, the spread of malware, sexting, and phishing. Regarding the management of the privacy of their data, the majority indicated that they occasionally provide personal information. Regarding the negative experiences during the

Fig. 10.3 Frequency of use of social networks to meet new people

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use of ICT and the Internet, 58% of the students acknowledge having experienced, at some point, an unfavorable situation (Fig. 10.4). 58% of students indicated having experienced a negative experience, insults, and inappropriate comments stand out more frequently, followed by blackmail with photographs (Fig. 10.5). During the training sessions, the students showed great interest, participating actively in all the activities and debates raised. During the five thematic units that were developed, the participants evidenced the need for and importance of taking care of personal information and managing the privacy of their data; considering

Fig. 10.4 Students who have had negative experiences while using ICT

Fig. 10.5 Types of negative experiences during the use of ICT

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as important and non-public information, the personal password (mobile phone, computer, and/or email), the telephone number, and the home address. “Sharing your home address with unknown people can lead to robbery or kidnapping.” (Reflection 1). Regarding the handling of passwords, there were different opinions; because a percentage of students suggested the need to share this information with their families; and another part mentions that it is personal. In addition, recognizing the need to use password manager software for storage and protection was addressed. Continuing with the explanation of the risks present on the Internet, most of the students were able to recognize the different dangerous situations during the use of the Internet, among which were found sexting, grooming, cyberbullying, inappropriate content, use of technological devices, and addiction to the Internet were mentioned. To counteract these situations, it was mentioned that it is necessary to talk with parents, guardians, and teachers to find an appropriate solution. “When you send a personal photo or video to other people, you do not know what they are going to do with that information (forward, post, modify, upload to adult sites, use it as a mockery…).” (Reflection 2). “On some occasions, as a result of teasing or threats, people take their own lives.” (Reflection 3). Regarding the use of social networks, it was important to explain what a person’s digital identity is and why it is important. Most of the students did not know about the subject, in some cases they associated it with identity theft and not with the image or personal reputation on the network. After understanding this concept, the students showed interest and concern in taking care of their personal image and also of other people on the network, due to the impact that it has on people’s social and work life. “It is important to take care and control what is published on the Internet because it can have consequences in the future.” (Reflection 4). In relation to the use of computer security tools, it was necessary to explain what the basic tools to secure smart devices are, and the information contained in them. Among the tools most known by the students, but not properly managed, was the use of antivirus software. For which, the selection, installation, configuration, and frequent use of antivirus software, password managers, browser extension programs to improve data privacy, and parental control software were encouraged. The students showed interest in the use of antivirus software and password managers. “Using antivirus software and keeping it up to date is necessary to protect electronic devices and the data stored on them.” (Reflection 5). In these sessions, it was important to describe the advantages and disadvantages of using ICTs, explain the risks of the Internet, and how to respond to dangerous situations; in addition to properly managing data privacy and digital identity; and finally encourage the use of computer security tools such as antivirus software. In general, the answers obtained in the evaluation questionnaires carried out at the end of each thematic unit reveal the interest and concern of the students to know and avoid the risks related to the use of ICTs and the Internet; in addition to managing digital identity and data privacy. 85.6% indicated that the topics developed are important, 78.5% said that the sessions were interesting, 79% said they were well

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organized (practices, content, and duration per session). According to the answers obtained and the comments made during the sessions, the students valued the proposal as very positive.

10.5 Conclusions The results obtained in this research suggest the need to continue expanding knowledge regarding the risks on the Internet and how to avoid them, in addition to the safe use of technology, not only due to innovations in this field, but also due to the migration and technification of users criminals and the new ways of committing computer crimes exposed here as dangerous situations during the use of ICT. The results showed the need to promote and integrate a responsible computing culture in the academic community. In the daily practice of the use of ICT by students, deficiencies are observed regarding the safe use of technology and little knowledge about the risks of the Internet and how to avoid them. This situation is increasing due to the wide interval of time they spend on the Internet and accessing different social networks to publish and consume information, as well as the amount of personal data they share online without being aware of the serious dangers to which they are exposed. Besides added to this is the inappropriate use of computer security tools, many are unaware of the possibilities of managing data privacy in the applications they use, also the ignorance of the concept of digital identity, and its importance. In fact, the findings in this work coincide with previous studies [3, 5, 9, 30], showing that the students of middle school and high school use ICT on a daily basis and for long periods of time. This use extends access to mobile devices and the Internet, as concluded in studies carried out by Giménez Gualdo et al. [31] and Quimbayo [32]. The activities that they mostly carry out on the Internet are entertainment, searching for information, and having conversations on social networks [15]. 58% of the participants mention having occasionally experienced a situation that made them uncomfortable while using ICT. The conflictive situations to which students are exposed while using the Internet are mainly insults and inappropriate comments and/or blackmail with photographs. The risks that generate the most interest and concern in students are those linked to privacy and digital identity. However, students admit that they usually carry out actions considered dangerous, that is, avoiding good practices regarding the prevention of Internet risks, as stated by [28]. The use of social networks by minors is another situation that can generate dangerous situations [25]. This is important to highlight, since 64.5% admit to using more than one social network and, for the most part, not knowing the level of privacy and/or the privacy options of their profile. The students consider that when faced with dangerous situations on the Internet, the most appropriate thing to do is to seek information and help from their relatives and/or teachers; since they are an important factor in the development of digital competence. Eliminate the risks of the Internet, as in any area of life, it is impossible.

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Therefore, the best way is to instruct students to ensure a critical, responsible, and safe use of ICT. It is important that minors interact in the digital world, they cannot be excluded, and for this, it is necessary that they know the disadvantages, risks, and problems that globalization has and thus avoid situations that could endanger their physical integrity or emotional. Fundamentally, educational systems must seek to adapt to the changing context in which we live and guarantee the proper development of digital skills. For this reason, one of the main objectives must be to educate students to coexist in the network in a responsible and autonomous way. In short, for the use of ICT to be a beneficial and enriching aspect, it is important to develop awareness of the importance of the actions carried out online and their consequences. For future work, it is essential to implement training and educational programs that involve the direct involvement and cooperative work of families, students, law enforcement, and teachers. Since the risks to which minors are exposed while using the Internet are increasing as a result of the indiscriminate use of technology, it is important to make students aware of the consequences of their actions on the Internet, parents in their responsibility to control access to the Internet, and teachers and educational centers in putting into practice a culture of peace that moves to the virtual environment to form responsible and critical users in the use of ICT.

References 1. Estrada, G.C.T., Montero, J.M.C., Hernandez, Y.C.U., Herrera, J.J.R.: Innovación tecnológica: Reflexiones teóricas. Rev. Venez. Gerenc. 24(85), (2019) 2. Levano-Francia, L., Sanchez Diaz, S., Guillén-Aparicio, P., Tello-Cabello, S., Herrera-Paico, N., Collantes-Inga, Z.: Competencias digitales y educación. Propósitos y Represent. 7(2), 569–588 (2019) 3. Muñoz-Miralles, R., Ortega-González, R., Batalla-Martinez, C., López-Morón, M.R., Manresa, J.M., Torán-Monserrat, P.: Acceso y uso de nuevas tecnologías entre los jóvenes de educación secundaria, implicaciones en salud. Estudio JOITIC Atención Primaria 46(2), 77–88 (2014) 4. Zambrani Macías, M.J., Ciberseguridad: Riesgo y amenazas de los jóvenes en las redes sociales caso: Colegio Fiscal Mixto Camilo Ponce. (2018) 5. Castillo Fernández, M.: Estudio sobre el uso y el abuso de la tecnología en adolescentes (2020) 6. Rodríguez-Álvarez, J.M., del Carmen Cabrera-Herrera, M., Jiménez, S.Y.: Los riesgos de las TIC en las relaciones entre iguales. Cyberbullying en Educación Primaria y Secundaria. Innoeduca. Int. J. Technol. Educ. Innov. 4(2), 185–192 (2018) 7. Montenegro, M.A.S., Miranda, Á.S.B., de Vinces, P.J.G.: El hacking como comportamiento típico en las nuevas formas de delincuencia organizada. Espirales Rev. Multidiscip. Investig. 3(26), 60–70 (2019) 8. Rodríguez, C.R.: Los menores ante los peligros digitales en méxico y su protección legal. Universos Jurídicos 1(15), 236–259 (2020) 9. Cascardo, E., Veiga, M.C.: Tecnoadictos: Los peligros de la vida online. EDICIONES B, (2018) 10. Argente, E., Vivancos, E., Alemany, J., García-Fornes, A.: Educando en privacidad en el uso de las redes sociales. Educ. Knowl. Soc. 18(2), 107–126 (2017) 11. Rodríguez, F.B., Espinosa, G.R.: Los peligros de la virtualidad en la pandemia de COVID-19. Pediatria (Santiago) 53(3), 81–82 (2020)

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12. Carrasco Rivas, F., Droguett Vocar, R., Huaiquil Cantergiani, D., Navarrete Turrieta, A., Quiroz Silva, M.J., Binimelis Espinoza, H.: El uso de dispositivos móviles por niños: Entre el consumo y el cuidado familiar. Cultura-hombre-sociedad 27(1), 108–137 (2017) 13. Mayor, C.L., Martinez, A.C.: Acción tutorial y tecnología: propuesta formativa en educación primaria. Rev. Electrónica Interuniv. Form. Del Profr. 22(3), 233–249 (2019) 14. Tamayo, D.L.O., Otero, K.L.M.: Adolescentes en Internet: la mediación entre riesgos y oportunidades. Rev. Colomb. Ciencias Soc. 11(1), 153–180 (2020) 15. Smahel, D., et al.: EU Kids online 2020. Surv. Results From 19, 156 (2020) 16. Arango Niño, J.A., and others: Análisis de los riesgos de seguridad a los cuales están expuestos los niños y niñas con el uso de la red social facebook y cómo estos podrían reducirse (2021) 17. Orosco Fabián, J.R., Pomasunco Huaytalla, R.: Adolescentes frente a los riesgos en el uso de las TIC. Rev. Electrónica Investig. Educ. 22 (2020) 18. Vega, M.P., Pérez Lalli, M., Di Iorio, A.H., Trigo, S., Lasia, S.: Problematizando el grooming, sexting y ciberbullying, para un abordaje preventivo (2018) 19. González Porras, A.J.: Privacidad en internet: los derechos fundamentales de privacidad e intimidad en internet y su regulación jurídica. La vigilancia masiva (2016) 20. Porlán, I.G.: Identidad digital, ser, estar y actuar en la red. Rev. Interuniv. Investig. En Tecnol. Educ. (2017) 21. Dans, I.: Identidad digital de los adolescentes: la narrativa del yo. Rev. Estud. e Investig. en Psicol. y Educ. 1–4 (2015) 22. González Ramírez, T., López Gracia, Á.: La identidad digital de los adolescentes: usos y riesgos de las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación (2018) 23. Nuñez Ponce, J.C.: Derecho de identidad digital en internet. (2016) 24. Giones-Valls, A., Serrat-Brustenga, M.: La gestión de la identidad digital: una nueva habilidad informacional y digital (2010) 25. Giant, N.: Ciberseguridad para la i-generación: Usos y riesgos de las redes sociales y sus aplicaciones, vol. 206. Narcea Ediciones (2016) 26. Aguilar, A.P.V.: Las redes sociales y sus factores de riesgos. Pro Sci Rev. Prod. Ciencias e Investig. 1(5), 10–13 (2017) 27. Gómez, A.D.: El delito informático, su problemática y la cooperación internacional como paradigma de su solución: El Convenio de Budapest. Rev. Electrónica Derecho la Univ. La Rioja 8, 169–203 (2010) 28. Romero, C.S., González, E.Á.: Actitudes nocivas y riesgos para los menores a través de los dispositivos móviles. REXE Rev Estud. y Exp. en Educ. 2(3), 147–161 (2018) 29. Campos Velásquez, L.T., Diaz Pineda, Y.P., Varon Sosa, L.: Descripción de enfermedades osteomusculares de miembros superiores de mayor prevalencia en el periodo de enero a junio del 2019 en los usuarios de la Eps Medimas del municipio Facatativá. Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios (2019) 30. Díaz-Vicario, A., Mercader Juan, C., Gairín Sallán, J.: Uso problemático de las TIC en adolescents. Rev. electrónica Investig. Educ. 21, (2019) 31. Giménez Gualdo, A.M., Luengo Latorre, J.A., Bartrina, M.J., others? Qué hacen los menores en Internet? Usos de las TIC, estrategias de supervisión parental y exposición a riesgos. Electron. J. Res. Educ. Psychol. 15(3), (2017) 32. Quimbayo, A.R., Campiño, C.A.F., Patarroyo, N.V.H., Osorio, G.O.A.: Adicción y abuso a dispositivos móviles en estudiantes universitarios, Pereira. Cuad. Investig. semilleros Andin. 11, (2018)

Chapter 11

Higher Education Students Dropout Prediction Teresa Guarda , Oscar Barrionuevo , and José Avelino Victor

Abstract The dropout of higher education students is a worldwide problem, which has been studied for several decades. Initially, the investigations focused on psychological and individual aspects of the student, but later they began to include variables from the context of the academy. With the expansion of this phenomenon in higher education institutions, academic managers seek alternatives that allow them to control and reduce the abandonment of academia. Emerging data mining (DM) as a viable option. DM is one of the many tools that exploits a large amount of information for a specific purpose. The use of DM applied within the educational area allows the collection of information and its classification to help the institution’s decision making, through the use of classification algorithms and modeling techniques. Since this is an important issue for higher education institutions, it is crucial to determine the reasons that encourage students to drop out of their studies in order to generate indicators that prevent the problem. The main objective of this research is, precisely, to know the reasons why a student who enters the university can become an early dropout.

T. Guarda (B) Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena, La Libertad, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] CIST—Centro de Investigación en Sistemas y Telecomunicaciones, Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena, La Libertad, Ecuador Algoritmi Centre, Minho University, Guimarães, Portugal O. Barrionuevo Armada del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador J. A. Victor Polytechnic Institute of Maia, Maia, Portugal © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_11

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11.1 Introduction School dropout is one that affects all universities. Therefore, the causes of school dropout must be identified, so that effective policies can be implemented to reduce the impact of this problem on society. Due to the expansion of this phenomenon throughout the educational system, particularly in higher education institutions, the need arises to look for alternatives that generate its decrease and at the same time take into account the different economic, social, affective, and psychological requirements of the students. Originally, the purpose of information systems was to collect information on specific assets that helped make decisions. After satisfying the need for IT support for the basic processes of an organization, they require new functions of the information system [1]. Technology has undergone changes at all levels, all these advances have been very significant over time, and with the innovation process, a number of challenges have arisen, which have led to perfecting data collection techniques. The creation of participatory and composite environments are fundamental tools in data mining (DM), these are one of the great advances in this important field in the study of data. Academic performance is one of the student’s qualities and abilities that can be measurable, it shows what they has learned throughout her educational training. This measure is relevant for any person being studied, therefore, the learning outcomes are related to the aptitudes and attitudes of the students [2]. That a student does not meet academic expectations may be related to behavioral variations that are manifested in the student’s behavior and that may affect their daily activities [3]. In order to find the cause of the problem and make decisions according to the case, it is necessary to investigate the various factors that involve a student having a good academic performance and can be reflected in their behavior and grades. Data mining tools help us define behavior patterns that influence students’ academic performance. Educational data mining (EDM) is one of the application areas of data mining that helps predict dropout learning habits and thus helps provide timely help to students. However, it has not been included in university education [4]. For this reason, data mining plays a fundamental role here, since it offers tools to understand the complexities that characterize the different systems; analyze technological, economic and environmental impacts; and evaluate their production strategies; in order to better understand the actual problems and predictions under investigation. In this work, the behavior patterns that influence the academic performance of students must be defined, through data mining tools. To do this, the DM tools are executed to find patterns and relationships between student learning data. Identifying what affects the student’s academic performance, their permanence, and approval of the subjects. Make recommendations on how to

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use the results obtained and the characteristics of the information sources that serve as an innovative and appropriate learning management strategy.

11.2 Data Mining The DM process consists of collecting relevant information on previously defined topics, this process is carried out with large amounts of information to find different models from these data. For this entire process to be effective, it must be done automatically with the help of patterns that help make better decisions. The main benefit of this is the transformation of data into knowledge, which is currently the most important thing when it comes to a feedback for improvements in the application area. Within the various areas supported by MD, there is one in particular, the educational area, which offers advantages compared to the more traditional paradigms of educational research, whether with experiments, sociological studies, or design research. The supervised or predictive techniques use variables and fields of a database that help in the prediction of unknown values, all this to obtain knowledge for a specific purpose. Unsupervised or descriptive mining techniques are used to collect important and relevant information in large databases to discover patterns that serve for their proper interpretation [2]. DM techniques are the actions used to find patterns in a large volume of data. These patterns can be explanatory, in order to describe the relationships between data segments, or predictive, which can predict future values based on past data [1, 5]. The main DM techniques, which will be presented in this article, are classification, association, and clustering. Classification aims to categorize data based on previously defined classes. In turn, association is a technique that seeks to discover relationships between variables. Clustering is the partitioning of data into different classes, which have elements with similar characteristics. It is important to note that, in the grouping, the elements within each class are similar to each other, and however, they are different when compared to items from other classes (Table 11.1). Table 11.1 Data mining techniques DM technique

Description

Classification

It is a technique used to categorize data by predicting information based on a set of pre-defined classes

Association

Has as its principle the use of some rules to find relationships between variables, even in situations where they apparently have no relationship

Clustering

It is a data mining technique used to categorize data into classes/clusters, according to the similarities of each item. In this way, by analyzing these classes, useful patterns of knowledge can be discovered

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DM tools allow you to extract patterns and trends, explain and better understand your data, and predict future behavior. DM analyzes the data from the rest of the tools for access to information and a more effective analysis [1]. There are various algorithms and techniques to help obtain the information. The supervised algorithms predict the value of a record attribute called an attribute. From the data by which the tag is known, a relationship between the tag and another set of attributes is derived. These relationships are used to make predictions for data with unknown labels. In unsupervised algorithms, they are used to discover patterns and trends in current data. Discovering this information will help us take action and benefit from it [6].

11.3 Students Dropout Factors University dropout occurs in all universities in the world, and its effects are felt both economically, as well as at the societal and personal level of students who drop out of university. Dropout in the context of a higher education institution (HEI) can mean the permanent departure of a student from their course without having been able to complete it, that is, school dropout. However, the student can drop out in several ways: course dropout; evasion of the institution; and system evasion. The student can drop out of the course for several reasons: the student does not enroll; officially withdraw, transfer or change course; exclusion by institutional rule. In the case of evasion at the institution, the student leaves the institution. In turn, evasion from the system referred to the permanent or temporary abandonment of the student from the educational system. The first year in higher education seems to be the decisive period to intervene, promoting success, and preventing students from dropping out [7–9]. Abandonment is a serious problem with a negative impact in financial terms, but also in terms of institutional reputation. Understanding the phenomenon is, therefore, crucial for the planning of higher education policies, since dropout affects students, families, the higher education system, and the entire social structure. It is essential to characterize the dropout student and then will be possible to obtain the probability of desertion, according to each one of the faculties of the university. The factors that lead to university dropout can be of a social nature, psych pedagogical skills, and personal [10–13] (see Table 11.2). According Samuel and Burger [14], negative events in the student’s life are associated with an increase in dropout intentions. Although these are sensitive to selfefficacy, and the social support that is provided to them. The intention to abandon can be minimized. In this sense, with regard to the determinants of school dropout, the complex interactions between vulnerabilities and situational factors must be rigorously examined. So that it is possible to prevent dropout intentions [14].

11 Higher Education Students Dropout Prediction Table 11.2 Students dropout risk factors

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Factors

Variables

Social nature

Student background, Income level, Life situations, and other outside demands

Psych pedagogical

Inadequate academic level of training, Inconsistency between previous training and university studies, Lack of quality time with teachers and counselors, and School environment

Personal

Low adaptability to high school, Low levels of socio-emotional intelligence, Conflict with work and family commitments, and Broken relationships

11.4 Educational Data Mining Universities have shown high dropout rates in their higher education courses. This fact has caused concern to academic managers, who seek to improve retention and course completion indicators. In this context, the importance of identifying in advance which students will not be successful in completing the course arises, as this information can help in decision making so that this prediction can be modified. In this sense, educational data mining techniques can be used. These techniques are able to identify the profile of these students from data from other students who were not successful at university. EDM assists in the early detection of truancy, allowing its possible causes to be analyzed and treated early. EDM is an area of interdisciplinary research that deals with the development of methods to explore data originating in an educational context [15]. Some results in the area go toward characterizing dropout, motivation, and student performance. In EDM, DM techniques are juxtaposed in educational data. The purpose is to understand how students acquire knowledge, recognize the settings in which they learn to improve educational results and, also, verify how their respective characteristics tend to certain behaviors, for example, the decision to drop out or not. It is observed that educational systems can store a huge amount of data from various sources and in different formats [16]. EDM uses computational approaches to analyze educational data in order to study educational issues [17], contributing in several directions: in the visualization of a large volume of information; in the statistical analysis of data from virtual learning environments; and in the production of classifications, groupings, and rules of association in educational data repositories.

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EDM explores statistics, machine learning, and data mining algorithms applied to different types of teaching data and allows discovering new knowledge in order to lay the foundations for a more effective learning process [18]. In the academic field, there are cases of success when applying or implementing DM, due to the great capacity to process large amounts of data, it helps in some way to identify patterns and behaviors that are based on criteria such as the course and its difficulty, grades, and most times the course was taken [19]. Therefore, the use of the different data DM and tools that are positioned for education in order to know what methodologies could be used in in universities. In addition to its enormous potential, EDM can be used to discover how students learn, reframe learning and understand learning behavior, and help develop better and smarter technologies to support students and teachers. Each particular educational problem requires different types of DM techniques, as traditional DM techniques cannot be applied directly to these types of data and problems. There are many DM instruments generally available, but these are not designed to handle educational data and a manager cannot use these instruments without knowledge of DM concepts [16]. The discover knowledge in the database (KDD) is a process that is made up of a series of stages whose priority is the extraction of knowledge in databases or it is also called a non-trivial process which can be simulated as valid, novel, and profitable patterns from of the data. Taking into account the KDD, it begins with an identification of objectives, which initially establishes the goals that are desired to be achieved at the end of the process, consequently the databases of the academy are selected both in relation to the personal, academic, and socioeconomic characteristics of those who are in the program. Once the collected data is established, the analysis proceeds with the creation of a repository which will cover the pre-processing stage, which will use different techniques and operations for cleaning and preparing the data and for the next stage it is established the transformation that will show us the data obtained ready and suitable for the application of the algorithms and can be applied in DM [20]. EDM seeks to develop or adapt existing mining methods and algorithms in such a way that they lend themselves to a better understanding of data in educational contexts, produced mainly by students and teachers, considering the environments in which they interact. The methods aim to better understand the student in their learning process, analyzing their interaction with the environment. Thus, there is a need, for example, to adapt existing DM algorithms to deal with specificities inherent to educational data, such as non-statistical independence and data hierarchy. On the other hand, there is a significant and urgent need to provide appropriate computing environments for mining educational data, offering ease of use for each of the actors involved, especially the teacher. There are several tasks involved in EDM, notably those that arise directly from the analysis of data generated in students’ interactions with learning environments

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[21–25]. From this analysis, demands arise to answer questions related to how to improve student learning, how to develop more effective educational environments.

11.5 Conclusions Universities have shown high dropout rates in their higher education courses. This fact has caused concern to academic managers, who seek to improve retention and course completion indicators. In this context, the importance of identifying in advance which students will not be successful in completing the course arises, as this information can assist in decision making so that this prediction can be modified. School dropout in higher education is one of the broadest and most fundamental problems in the field of education. Dropout goes beyond countless degrees and teaching peculiarities and has caused social, economic, political, academic, and financial losses to all those involved in the educational process. Thus, it is imperative to develop methods capable of assisting in the prediction of students at risk of dropping out, enabling the adoption of proactive interventions to minimize the context. EDM is an area that integrates statistics, computing, and education to help analyze and find the factors that most influence education problems, whether social, socioeconomic, family, various factors combined, among others. It is necessary to seek the best alternative, which can help predict student dropout. EDM is not just limited to DM and performs its inferences in different areas, ranging from machine learning to psychometrics. EDM has impacted educational research in recent years, and its approach encompasses applications in various areas such as e-learning; self-study; and intelligent tutoring systems. EDM allows extracting knowledge from student data. This information can be used for a variety of purposes, such as validating and evaluating an education system program, improving the quality of educational processes, and laying the foundation for more effective learning. Considering that higher education institutions have as their mission the training and personal and social development of students, contributing to the construction of a democratic society with more competent and socially committed citizens, abandonment symbolizes the failure of students, their families and the HEIs themselves, especially when abandonment is permanent.

References 1. Gheware, S.D., Kejkar, A.S., Tondare, S.M.: Data mining: task, tools, techniques and applications. Int. J. Adv. Res. Comput. Commun. Eng. 3(10), 8095–8098 (2014) 2. Nazir, S., Asif, M., Ahmad, S.: The evolution of trends and techniques used for data mining. In: 2nd International Conference on Advancements in Computational Sciences (ICACS), Lahore (2019)

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3. Romero, C., Ventura, S.: Educational data mining and learning analytics: an updated survey. Wiley Interdisc. Rev.: Data Min. Knowl. Discovery 10(3), 1–21 (2020). Wiley 4. Li, J., Li, H., Majumdar, R., Yang, Y., Ogata, H.: Self-directed extensive reading supported with GOAL system: mining sequential patterns of learning behavior and predicting academic performance. In: LAK22: 12th International Learning Analytics and Knowledge Conference, USA (2022) 5. Kantardzic, M.: Data Mining: Concepts, Models, Methods, and Algorithms. Wiley (2011) 6. Mikut, R., Reischl, M.: Data mining tools. Wiley Interdisc. Rev.: Data Min. Knowl. Discovery 1(5), 431–443 (2011) 7. Tinto, V.: From theory to action: exploring the institutional conditions for student retention. In: Higher Education: Handbook of Theory and Research, pp. 51–89. Springer, Dordrecht (2010) 8. Behr, A., Giese, M., Teguim Kamdjou, H.D., Theune, K.: Motives for dropping out from higher education—an analysis of bachelor’s degree students in Germany. 56(2), 325–343 (2021) 9. Hassel, S., Ridout, N.: An investigation of first-year students’ and lecturers’ expectations of university education. Front. Psychol. 8, 2218 (2018) 10. Ribeiro, R.C., Canedo, E.D.: Using data mining techniques to perform school dropout prediction: a case study. In: 17th International Conference on Information Technology—New Generations (ITNG 2020) (2020) 11. Rumberger, R.W., Rotermund, S.: The relationship between engagement and high school dropout. In: Handbook of Research on Student Engagement, pp. 491–513. Springer, Boston (2012) 12. Battin-Pearson, S., Newcomb, M.D., Abbott, R.D., Hill, K.G., Catalano, R.F., Hawkins, J.D.: Predictors of early high school dropout: a test of five theories. J. Educ. Psychol. 92(3), 568–582 (2000) 13. Ripamonti, E.: Risk factors for dropping out of high school: a review of contemporary, international empirical research. Adolesc. Res. Rev. 3(3), 321–338 (2018) 14. Samuel, R., Burger, K.: Negative life events, self-efficacy, and social support: risk and protective factors for school dropout intentions and dropout. J. Educ. Psychol. 112(5), 973–986 (2020) 15. Alom, B.M., Courtney, M.: Educational data mining: a case study perspectives from primary to university education in Australia. Int. J. Inf. Technol. Comput. Sci. 10(2), 1–9 (2018) 16. Venkatachalapathy, K., Vijayalakshmi, V., Ohmprakash, V.: Educational data mining tools: a survey from 2001 to 2016. In: Second International Conference on Recent Trends and Challenges in Computational Models (ICRTCCM) (2017) 17. Charitopoulos, A., Rangoussi, M., Koulouriotis, D.: On the use of soft computing methods in educational data mining and learning analytics research: a review of years 2010–2018. Int. J. Artif. Intell. Educ. 30(3), 371–430 (2020) 18. Mahajan, G., Saini, B.: Educational data mining: a state-of-the-art survey on tools and techniques used in EDM. Int. J. Comput. Appl. Inf. Technol. 12(1), 310–316 (2020) 19. Alyahyan, E., Dü¸stegör, D.: Predicting academic success in higher education: literature review and best practices. Int. J. Educ. Technol. High. Educ. 17(1), 1–21 (2020) 20. Agrusti, F., Bonavolontà, G., Mezzini, M.: University dropout prediction through educational data mining techniques: a systematic review. J. e-Learn. Knowl. Soc. 15(3), 161–182 (2019) 21. Blikstein, P., Worsley, M.: Multimodal learning analytics and education data mining: using computational technologies to measure complex learning tasks. J. Learn. Anal. 3(2), 220–238 (2016) 22. Romero, C., Ventura, S.: Data mining in education. Wiley Interdisc. Rev.: Data Min. Knowl. Discovery 3(1), 12–27 (2013) 23. Suh, S., Suh, J.: Risk factors and levels of risk for high school dropouts. Prof. Sch. Couns. 10(3), 297–306 (2007) 24. Randolph, K.A., Fraser, M.W., Orthner, D.K.: A strategy for assessing the impact of timevarying family risk factors on high school dropout. J. Fam. Issues 27(7), 933–950 (2006) 25. Archambault, I., Janosz, M., Dupéré, V., Brault, M.C., Andrew, M.M.: Individual, social, and family factors associated with high school dropout among low-SES youth: differential effects as a function of immigrant status. Br. J. Educ. Psychol. 87(3), 456–477 (2017)

Chapter 12

Use of Learning and Knowledge Technologies (LKT) to Dynamize the Learning of Analytic Geometry in High School Students Gabriela Acosta-Portilla , Javier Sánchez-Guerrero , Raúl Guillermo-Zambrano , and Andrés Haro-Velasteguí Abstract The present research is carried out with the objective of determining the relationship between the LKT tools and the teaching–learning process of analytical geometry in high school, in the “Atahualpa” Educational Unit, located in Chisalata in the Atahualpa Parish of the Ambato Canton. The approach was quantitative and qualitative. The population considered consisted of 80 students in the third year of high school. The instruments used to collect information were the survey and the test; through the first one, the opinion on the use of LKT in the teaching–learning process of analytic geometry was evaluated and collected; while, through the second instrument, the level of learning before and after having applied the LKT tools was evaluated. The results show that most students frequently use email, social networks, or messaging services (WhatsApp, chat) on computer, tablet, or cell phone; in addition, they consider that they are currently an important tool for their studies, considering that their use has radically changed the teaching–learning process. On the other hand, 48.75% of the students in the third year of high school at the “Atahualpa” Educational Unit have a medium learning level (9–7); likewise, 41.25% have a low level (3–1). With the application of LKT through various tools to encourage the teaching– learning process, 72.50% of the students obtained a higher grade (9–7), showing the improvement obtained. G. Acosta-Portilla · J. Sánchez-Guerrero (B) Faculty of Human Sciences and Education, Technical University of Ambato UTA, Ambato, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] G. Acosta-Portilla e-mail: [email protected] R. Guillermo-Zambrano Chimborazo National University UNACH, Communication Career, Riobamba, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] A. Haro-Velasteguí Polytechnic Higher School of Chimborazo ESPOCH, Business Administration, Riobamba, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_12

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12.1 Introduction The imminent advance of technology proposes changes in all aspects in which the human being is involved, one of them and in which it has influenced significantly, especially in the last pandemic era is in education, the use of technology and information in the teaching and learning process, has provided tools that allow a better construction of knowledge in students, thus generating greater concentration and participation of them in the classroom. Applying technological tools in the classroom changes our way of educating from a traditional way to an innovative way, allowing the development of their capabilities. Teachers must be in continuous search of new methodologies to reach students with knowledge and applying technologies in favor of learning is important to develop the mind in a different and dynamic way, through practical examples. Where students demonstrate all their skills and abilities acquired during class time, these avantgarde methodologies allow both the student and the teacher to be motivated in the acquisition of new learning [1]. When it was mentioned about a digital competence, it was related to information and communication technologies (ICT), and it was sought that both teachers and students master these technologies, without taking into account that there was not enough methodology, which is why the learning and knowledge technologies (LKT) appear. These technologies guide ICT to be used in a more formative way in order to obtain more significant results in the long term of the teaching and learning process. Using these tools also implies a change in the student, since he/she will be stimulated by interacting with state-of-the-art technological resources that favor learning [2]. Thus, the use of learning and knowledge technologies (LKT) in education is an innovation that aims to enhance the way students learn, all this in light of technological advances, so as to promote learning, improve didactics, and develop the necessary skills [3]. Through this research, we intend to give a new approach to education where students not only receive information and memorize, but develop their thinking in a different way, visualizing their ideas and building their own knowledge, leaving behind methodologies that did not allow the active participation of the student, turning them into beings capable of generating opinions and debating them. The main objective of the research is to determine the contribution of the use of LKT in the teaching of analytical geometry in high school students of the “Atahualpa” Educational Unit of the city of Ambato.

12.2 State of the Art Currently, the world has gone through several changes and the knowledge society is part of these changes, opting for new teaching–learning processes, leaving behind the traditional way of teaching, taking into account that it is surrounded by new

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technologies, which can be used for the benefit of education, thus improving the learning of each student. These trends can be applied in different areas of human knowledge, and the effects shown revealed high compliance in the use of educational texts with AR, for interactive content that aroused interest and motivation in the subject, together there was progress in the learning process [4, 5] Use of innovative technologies in mobile applications for physical activity, where it is common for users to use innovative technologies to motivate weight control and physical activity. This reality is confronted by the advancement of LKT, which is considered important in the system to improve the capabilities, learning opportunities, and educational quality, by involving information, knowledge, and identifiable environments of its effectiveness and dynamic applicability, which refers to the meeting of the curricular contents within a new technological culture of support, hope to achieve positive results in the creation of learning contexts [6]. According to [2] in its work, “ICTs and resources to generate learning” aimed to focus on aspects necessary for the effective introduction of ICTs in the teaching– learning process: continuous updating of knowledge and skills, digital competence, new conceptualization of teaching, generation of virtual learning environments, and transformation of the roles of teachers and students. The results showed that it is necessary to know the new possibilities that technologies open to education when they are no longer used as an instrumental element whose purpose is to make the current educational model more efficient. It was concluded that, by correctly using ICTs to motivate students, it is possible to enhance their creativity and increase their multitasking skills, as well as to take advantage of the synergies between teachers and students, thus creating increased learning. Higher education institutions are trying to incorporate and increase the use of ICT in the classroom, however, many teachers do not have the necessary pedagogical training to use them and generate with them an innovative methodology, therefore, the learning and knowledge technologies (LKT) try to guide the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) toward a more formative than informative use, both for students and teachers, in order to learn more and better [7]. According to [8], LKT are used as didactic tools at the service of learning; through them, knowledge management is made possible, directed to the formative use of technologies, which ensure the apprehension of knowledge; which is still an aspiration, the methodological proposals and training modalities are still insufficient to turn these technological tools into real learning and knowledge resources. For [9], three theoretical elements support LKT strategies: competency-based training for the consolidation of LKT; critical thinking and problem-based learning through the use of the LKT strategy; and knowledge construction in the teaching– learning process. The researchers concluded that LKT are strategies that favor the construction of knowledge through processes oriented toward problem solving, interpretation, argumentation and analysis; from this perspective, it is important for teachers to know the scope and meaning of their application in the classroom, in order for students to achieve meaningful and meta-cognitive learning processes.

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In the investigation of [10], the results showed different evaluation resources that acted as pedagogical mediators, concluding that the advantages of evaluating learning mediated by the LKT are the following: for the teacher: inclusion of personalized proposals, facilitates visual and auditory information, monitors student motivation, allows a selection of didactic resources according to the needs of the students, facilitates monitoring of the evaluation process and makes it possible to record the participants’ interventions, while for the students: speed of feedback from the tutors, learning from multiple resources, self-evaluation, linkage with problems of teaching practice and feedback that guides educational practice. For [11], LKT are present in digital learning environments, developed through the different activities that lead to overcome the use of information and communication technologies, because they allow to obtain new knowledge, giving rise to the use of materials and resources that allow a significant learning, mediated by technology in academic training, within the didactics used by teachers. The origin of the LKT is due to the technological transition of ICT, where the LKT is associated with knowledge management in different educational modalities, which has changed the way of relating and accessing information with pedagogical goals. Thus, by promoting the use of technologies in the teaching–learning process, educational models have been transformed, since the use of flexible digital didactic content provides a number of advantages and encourages increasingly meaningful learning [12]. According to [11], the LKT, or learning and knowledge technologies, are defined as those technologies that are present in digital learning environments, which can be developed through different activities that help to improve the use of information and communication technologies, and also allow the acquisition of new knowledge, allowing that within the didactics used by teachers, materials, and resources are used to achieve meaningful learning, which is mediated by technology in academic training. For [13], the most frequent LKT that emerge from the educational experience are organized into categories and share fundamental aspects, although the dividing lines are not precise. Table 12.1 shows these categories. For [14], the use of LKT goes beyond the academic training of the classroom where the teacher does not box the education to the academic end, but manages education outside the classroom, awakening in students the critical and objective sense about Table 12.1 Categories LKT Categories

Description

Dialogue

Students’ interaction and exchanges are achieved through the spoken word

Reciprocal peer teaching

Learners purposefully teach each other to master topics and develop related competencies

Graphic information organizers

Groups use visual media to organize and display information

Editorial staff

Students write to learn relevant content and skills

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Oriented to a formative use

They help to achieve the objectives of the educational programs.

Promote ICT learning.

Fig. 12.1 Characteristics of LKT

the environment around them, for this reason, the LKT have some characteristics, which are indicated in Fig. 12.1. In the process of teaching and learning applied with the LKT, [15] indicates that it is necessary to educate from the students’ feelings, since this process enhances and develops a complex vision of reality, therefore, the particularities of the subject develop the ability to learn what he/she considers effective. Thus, the information and communication technologies ICT are anchored to this process, but particularly the LKT, in terms of virtual learning environments, digital platforms, as well as educational software. In the present project, the use of LKT was applied in the teaching of analytic geometry to high school students. According to [16], geometry is an interdisciplinary branch of mathematics, which is adapted to the design of various strategies, it is also considered a discipline that allows the student to approach and live the culture in a different way since the experience of thinking geometrically shows peculiarities of domain different from those of the other areas, where people can reason about a geometric object by putting into play methods of thinking such as representing, visualizing, inter-pretating, classifying, abstracting, conjecturing, analyzing, testing hypotheses, and generalizing; and can also include a more developed mathematical knowledge, where the learner relates to the geometric object that does not belong to a real physical space but to a theoretical and conceptualized one. For [17], analytic geometry is a branch of mathematics that has multiple applications in various areas of human development and is present in the basic training of various fields, as well as linking algebra and geometry by associating numbers with points and equations with figures, and by applying the methods of algebra and calculus to elementary geometry. According to [18], analytic geometry is considered a mathematical theory and since learning is unquestionable in any educational project, it is convenient to pay the corresponding attention to the main variables that intervene in a coherent teaching– learning process, which are described in the following Fig. 12.2. According to [19], GeoGebra is an accessible, free, easy to use software, which has an automatic and simple installation process and is accepted on digital platforms,

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Fig. 12.2 Dimensions of the teaching of analytic geometry. Based on [18]

helps to solve analytical geometry problems used in differential and integral calculus, and presents several possibilities to work with geometric bodies.

12.3 Methodology The research developed considered as population the high school students of the Atahualpa Educational Unit of the city of Ambato, considering the three parallels of the institution (Table 12.2). The research is descriptive in nature since its purpose is to broadly analyze the terminology of each of the variables previously established. It also has a quantitative and qualitative approach, since the qualitative approach had an interpretative character based on the collection of data through the application of research techniques. On the other hand, the quantitative approach was also used because the data obtained from the application of the LKT tools and the knowledge test were duly analyzed. The descriptive type of research allows explaining the Table 12.2 Student population third year of high school UEA

Parallel

No students

A

27

B

27

C

26

Total

80

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particularities, events, and processes of the study phenomenon for the generation of scientific theories [20]. Therefore, in this study, we proceeded to the description of the phenomenon, properties, and characteristics that stand out for their importance in the phenomenon being analyzed, of the identified population, such as the use of LKT tools in the teaching–learning process of analytic geometry of high school students of the “Atahualpa” Educational Unit. A pretest and a posttest were carried out to measure the acceptance of the development of a web portal with instructions for the application of ICT-mediated LKT and using GeoGebra software for the practical application of the theory developed in class. The intention is to give the students the possibility to develop knowledge in a way to which they are better adapted, such as the use of technology with LKT. ADDIE was the development methodology for the creation of the portal, which provides a method of development in feedback and allows to create a learning environment [21]. Analysis: Information on the needs of the students and the use of the tools was collected to have a clear idea of which LKT to use. For this purpose, a questionnaire was structured, validated, and subsequently applied to the beneficiaries. Design: The following Fig. 12.3 describes the map with the way of navigation on the created web platform. Development: For the development of the site, we used intuitive tools that are NOT developers, Google provides a series of tools that are close to the possibilities of any

Fig. 12.3 Web portal design

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Fig. 12.4 Portal implemented

person and professional. Google Site was used to host several tools to support and accompany the subject of analytic geometry. Implementation: Once the web portal is fully developed, the application and use with high school students, in the three parallels, will proceed. The proposal can be reviewed in: https://tinyurl.com/yyp4yzry and it can be seen how Fig. 12.4. Evaluation: The functionality of the portal containing the LKT tools through various ICT resources was measured through a posttest, which also measured the comprehension and assimilation of content and therefore the use of the implemented.

12.4 Results The population considered consisted of 80 students in the third year of high school of the “Atahualpa” Educational Unit, to whom a pretest (prior to the implementation of the activities) and a posttest were applied to evaluate the level of knowledge of analytical geometry. The hypothesis stated in the research was: The application of LKT tools affects the teaching–learning process of geometry, in order to know if through the data obtained the LKT support or not the learning process of a certain subject. The confidence level used is ∝ = 0.05. In this research, the Z statistic is used to verify the hypothesis; this test is based on the normal approximation of the binomial distribution [22]. It is important to consider that the measures of the variables should be in percentages or proportions. The formula to be applied is as follows:

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z=

p1 − p2 p1 q1 n1

+ + pn2 q2 2

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(12.1)

p1 Proportion of the first group and n 1 the number of its elements p2 Proportion of the second group and n 2 the number of its elements q 1 = 1 − p1

(12.2)

q 2 = 1 − p2

(12.3)

The data used to test the hypothesis are based on the results obtained in two moments; in the first, a pretest was applied to evaluate the level of knowledge that students have in relation to geometry; in the second moment, a posttest was applied to evaluate the level of knowledge acquired after the implementation of the portal’s LKT activities, through the use of programs and/or applications to improve the geometry learning process. It is worth mentioning that the grading scale used to evaluate knowledge was the one issued by the Ministry of Education of Ecuador. Table 12.3 shows the data obtained through the application of the pretest and posttest (Table 12.4). The following process was used to test the hypothesis: H1: p1 > p2 The percentage of the posttest grade scale is significantly higher than the pretest. Ho: p1 = p2 There is no difference between the percentages obtained in the scale of scores of the applied tests. Level of significance: α = 0.05 Criteria: Ho si zc ≥ 1.64. The calculated value “Zc” is greater than the theoretical value “Zt”, that is zc = 4.3649 ≥ 1.64 = zt. Therefore, the value of Zc = 4.3649 is in the rejection zone of the null hypothesis, therefore, the research hypothesis is accepted, where it is indicated that the application of LKT tools DO impact the teaching–learning process of geometry.

12.5 Conclusions and Future Work With the present research work, it was determined that the LKT tools: interactive videos, audios, image-infographics, gamification, presentations, search engines and navigation, GeoGebra, allowed developing digital competences in the students of the third year of high school, stimulating the interest and motivation for learning analytical geometry.

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Table 12.3 Pre- and posttest results Items

Pretest (%)

Posttest (%)

1. The following function y = form:

47.50

0.475

95.00

0.950

2. A conic section is achieved by intersecting a plane with:

15.00

0.150

68.75

0.688

3. Which of the following are conics:

18.75

0.188

86.25

0.863

4. ¿Which of the following is correct concerning the canonical 10.00 equation of the circle having center at (−2, −3) and radius 5?

0.100

88.75

0.888

5. Determine whether it is true or false. A circle always passes through three unaligned points

76.25

0.763

87.50

0.875

6. From the following general equation of the circumference, determine its center and radius

63.75

0.638

87.50

0.875

7. ¿How much is R for the line to be tangent to the circumference. ?

81.25

0.813

87.50

0.875

8. Find the general equation of the parabola with focus the point of coordinates (−3, −2) and directrix the line with equation x = 1

38.75

0.388

86.25

0.863

9. Determine the canonical equation of the parabola where the directing line has the equation y + 2 = 0 and the ends of the straight side are the points A(0, 2) and B(8, 2)

93.75

0.938

8.75

0.088

10. The reduced equation of a parabola of axis OX and parameter 4 is:

76.25

0.763

97.50

0.975

11. Determine the correct elements of the ellipse

40.00

0.400

92.50

0.925

12. The foci of the ellipse are:

23.75

0.238

83.75

0.838

13. The vertices of the ellipse are:

82.50

0.825

68.75

0.688

14. Given the ellipse of equation and the point P(4, 3), the radii 87.50 of P are:

0.875

85.00

0.850

15. The eccentricity of an ellipse is 3/4 and the semi-major axis 18.75 is 4. How much is the semi-minor axis and the focal length?

0.188

98.75

0.988

Average

0.516

82

0.815

Table 12.4 Average percentages observed

52

Pretest

Notas

Posttest

Notes

Initial average

Values

End average

Values

p2

0.516

P1

0.815

q2 = 1−p2

0.484

q1 = 1−p1

0.185

Initial population n2

80

Final population n1

80

The research indicated that by applying traditional methods with third year high school students of the “Atahualpa” Educational Unit, they present difficulties in learning analytical geometry in the subject of conics and straight lines, obtaining low averages in the evaluations, prior to the application of the LKT tools.

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By presenting a different alternative, students awaken their interest and develop an additional motivation that stimulates the senses in a beneficial way when learning new academic content. This research work generates a projection for future work on the use of LKT in different areas of knowledge and opens opportunities for students to learn in a different way. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Universidad Técnica de Ambato (UTA), the Dirección de Investigación y Desarrollo (DIDE), the Facultad de Ciencias Humanas y de la Educación and the UODIDE-FCHE, for the support provided for this work through the research project “Espacios Virtuales en 3 Dimensiones, Recursos Digitales y Entornos Personales de Aprendizaje como herramientas de apoyo en la Neuro Didáctica”, code PFCHE19.

References 1. Padilla, P.: El vídeo como apoyo en la Actividad Física. Actividad Física y Recreación 40–55 (2019) 2. Velasco, M.: Las TAC y los recursos para generar aprendizaje. Revista Infancia, Educación y Aprendizaje 3(2), 771–777 (2017) 3. Dionisio, H., Méndez, J., Picho, D., Farfan, J., Flores, E.: Learning and knowledge technologies in school management in times of covid-19. Theoretical review. Drugs Cell Ther. Hematol. 522–527 (2021) 4. Sánchez-Guerrero, J., Salazar Mera, J., Gavilanes López, W., Sánchez Reinoso, R., Tamami Dávila, C.: Use of augmented reality AR in university environments. In: 2018 International Conference on eDemocracy & eGovernment (ICEDEG), pp. 291–297 (2018) 5. Mocha-Bonilla, J., Sánchez-Guerrero, J., Jimenez, L., Pilamunga, F., Barona-Oñate, R., Sánchez Guerrero, A.: Analysis of the body composition index and basal metabolic rate through the mobile application ehealth-UTA. In: 2018 International Conference on eDemocracy & eGovernment (ICEDEG), pp. 386–391 (2018) 6. Santillán, P., Cadena, V., Cadena, M.: Tecnologías del Aprendizaje y el Conocimiento: uso de las Redes Sociales en la Educación Universitaria de Ecuador. Revista Dilemas Contemporáneos: Educación, Política y Valores 1–15 (2015) 7. Gallegos, M., Basantes, A., Naranjo, M.: TAC como eje de formación para docentes universitarios, pp. 59–74 (2018) 8. Valarezo, J., Santos, O.: Las tecnologías del aprendizaje y el conocimiento en la formación docente. Revista Conrado 15(68), 180–186 (2019) 9. Díaz, L., Márquez, R.: Tecnologías del Aprendizaje y el Conocimiento como estrategias en la formación de los docentes de la Escuela Normal Superior de Cúcuta, Colombia. Revista Ánfora 27(48), 17–40 (2020) 10. Zeballos, M.: La Evaluación de los Aprendizajes Mediadas por las TAC. Revista TecnológicaEducativa Docentes 2.0 9(1), 83–95 (2020) 11. Girón, I.: Las tecnologías del aprendizaje y el conocimiento en el proceso de enseñanza. Revista Científica Internacional 17–27 (2021). Obtenido de: https://revista-cientifica-internacional.org/ index.php/revista/article/view/43/113 12. Pérez, R., Mercado, P., Martínez, M., Mena, E., Partida, J.: La sociedad del conocimiento y la sociedad de la información como la piedra angular en la innovación tecnológica. Revista Iberoamericana para la Investigación y el Desarrollo Educativo 8(16), 847–870 (2018) 13. Revelo, O., Collazos, C., Jiménez, J.: El trabajo colaborativo como estrategia didáctica para la enseñanza/aprendizaje de la programación: una revisión sistemática de literatura. TecnoLógicas 21(41), 115–134 (2018)

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14. Villarreal, S., García, J., Hernández, H., Steffens, E.: Competencias Docentes y Transformaciones en la Educación 15. Gallo, J., Mangua, L., Ortegon, J., Castro, L.: Caracterización de las perspectivas de estudiantes de educación media del Colegio Rafael Bernal Jiménez I.E.D. hacia las TAC. Virtu@lmente 7(2), 24–66 (2020) 16. Aray, C., Párraga, O., Chun, R.: La falta de enseñanza de la geometría en el nivel medio y su repercusión en el nivel universitario: análisis del proceso de nivelación de la Universidad Técnica de Manabí. Revista de Ciencias Humanísticas y Sociales 4(1), 20–31 (2019) 17. Ciccioli, V., Sgreccia, N.: Conocimiento matemático para la enseñanza de geometría analítica en futuros profesores. Revista electrónica de investigación en educación en ciencias 15(1), 1–20 (2020) 18. Cachuput, J., Martínez, J., Guilcapi, J., López, J.: Herramienta para la enseñanza de la geometría utilizando Tics, dirigido a los estudiantes del segundo año de bachillerato. Investigación Creatividad 3(3.1), 41–58 (2019). https://cienciadigital.org/revistacienciadigital2/index.php/ exploradordigital/article/view/864/2102 19. Villagrán, W., Cruz, E., Barahona, F., Barrera, O.: Utilización de GEOGEBRA como herramienta metodológica en la enseñanza de la geometría Analítica y su incidencia en el control del rendimiento académico de estudiantes del primer semestre de ingeniería. Revista de Dominio de las Ciencias 4(4), 215–223 (2018) 20. Ñaupas, H., Valdivia, M., Palacios, J., Romero, H.: Cuantitativa-cualitativa y redacción de la tesis. Ediciones de la U, Bogotá (2018) 21. Mayfield, M.: Creating training and development programs: using the ADDIE method. Dev. Learn. Organ.: Int. J. 25(3), 19–22 (2011) 22. Canal, D.: Esta prueba se basa en la aproximación normal de la distribución binomial (2011). https://www.revistaseden.org/files/11-CAP%2011.pdf

Chapter 13

Panorama of Peruvian Secondary Education Teachers Trained in ICT Use Before COVID-19 Pandemic Milton Gonzales-Macavilca

and Maricielo Aguinaga-Villegas

Abstract In order to determine the panorama of secondary education teachers who received training in ICT use before the transition to e-teaching due to the COVID19 pandemic in Peru, this study is presented with a quantitative, descriptive and trending approach. For this, three Surveys to Peruvian Teachers (ENDO) carried out by Ministerio de Educación del Perú before the pandemic, in 2014, 2016 and 2018 were analyzed. The total of secondary education teachers who participated in each year, respectively, were 3710 (78.5% = urban, 21.5% = rural), 3986 (81.9% = urban, 18.1% = rural) and 6118 (85.3% = urban, 14.7% = rural). After the analysis, it can be concluded that number of teachers trained in 2014 decreased in 2018 that classroom-based modality was the predominant one in these trainings, and Amazon region is the one that presents the most worrying figures.

13.1 Introduction Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, education in Peru had to adapt to distance education modality (according to Ministerial Resolution No. 160-2020-Minedu). The INEI, after the first quarter of 2020 school year, reported that in urban areas 82.6% of secondary education students (adolescents from 12 to 16 years old) received e-learning through virtual means; and in rural areas, it was 80.9% [1]. This violent transition from classroom-based to e-teaching required that teachers be trained in the proper use of information and communication technologies (ICT), in addition to the provision of basic resources for this modality (electricity, technological devices and Internet connection) [2]. Therefore, the objective of this study is to determine, the panorama of teachers who received training on ICT use before the pandemic. Results presented below M. Gonzales-Macavilca (B) Universidad de Ciencias y Humanidades, Lima, Peru e-mail: [email protected] M. Aguinaga-Villegas Universidad de Lima, Lima, Peru © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_13

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are expository in nature and seek to promote reflection on prepandemic situation of Peruvian teachers, in order to consolidate educational policies that contribute to a significant change for the Peruvian educational system.

13.2 Methodology This study was oriented according to the quantitative, descriptive and trend approach [3], for which a systematic analysis of three databases published by Ministerio de Educación del Perú [4], which they are Surveys to Peruvian Teachers (ENDO) of 2014, 2016 and 2018. The sample design of all the surveys was probabilistic, stratified and two-stage, cross-sectional and direct interview; samples were made up of regular basic educational teachers from three levels (kindergarten, primary and secondary), and the total cases were 9702 teachers in 2014, 9832 in 2016 and 15,092 in 2018 [5–7]. A theoretical-methodological negotiation was essential to extract the most appropriate information according to objectives of the research, because for this study the data analyzed are of a secondary type, since there was no intervention in the design of instruments or in the collection stage. Furthermore, survey was not exactly the same for each year nor was it applied to the same subjects. To do this, all databases were analyzed with the IBM SPSS 26 software, the questionnaires and technical sheets of each ENDO were compared and, finally, the following questions related exclusively to the training or education received in ICT use were selected: • On the training received. ENDO 2014: question 50 (“Have you received education and/or training in the ICT use?” Yes/No); ENDO 2018: 604 (“During 2017, did you receive any training in the use of information and communication technologies (ICT)? Yes/No”) and 604A (“In what modality did you receive it? Classroombased/e-learning/blended learning”). • On the quality of education received for ICT use. Questions 210_6 and 210A_6, from ENDO 2016 and 2018, respectively, present the same premise and response alternatives (“How would you rate the education you received to be a teacher regarding ICT use in the teaching–learning process? Did not receive it/Very bad/Bad/Regular/Good/Very good”).

13.2.1 Sample In ENDO 2014, 3710 secondary education teachers were registered (78.5% = urban, 21.5% = rural); in ENDO 2016, 3986 (81.9% = urban, 18.1% = rural) and in ENDO 2018, 6118 (85.3% = urban, 14.7% = rural).

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13.3 Results In Table 13.1, questions 50 (ENDO 2014) and 604 (ENDO 2018) were systematized. However, it is important to note in this last survey the question is posed much more specifically, since ENDO 2014 mentions whether the teacher received “education or training”. In this sense, it is not clear if the question also refers to courses that are part of teacher’s professional education, or only to the training they receive to complement their education. Despite this, both questions are at least similar enough to make a comparative reading. Unfortunately, in ENDO 2016, there is no question so specific to observe the transit from 2014 to 2018. Table 13.1 Teachers who have received ICT training Regions

ENDO 2014

ENDO 2018

Teachers (f )

Yes (%)

No (%)

Teachers (f )

Yes (%)

No (%)

Amazonas

119

28.6

71.4

158

18.4

81.6

Áncash

153

49.7

50.3

285

33.7

66.3

Apurímac

136

38.2

61.8

178

28.1

71.9

Arequipa

146

49.3

50.7

248

43.5

56.5

Ayacucho

136

30.1

69.9

257

37.0

63.0

Cajamarca

131

33.6

66.4

243

32.5

67.5

Callao

86

44.2

55.8

211

40.8

59.2

Cusco

144

45.1

54.9

254

41.3

58.7

Huancavelica

146

46.6

53.4

190

32.6

67.4

Huánuco

133

29.3

70.7

226

35.4

64.6

Ica

135

54.1

45.9

272

42.3

57.7

Junín

154

43.5

56.5

268

37.3

62.7

La Libertad

147

38.1

61.9

263

28.9

71.1

Lambayeque

150

44.0

56.0

272

34.6

65.4

Lima

406

49.8

50.2

621

39.9

60.1

Loreto

117

41.9

58.1

165

39.4

60.6

Madre de Dios

132

47.0

53.0

170

27.6

72.4

Moquegua

144

61.8

38.2

225

46.7

53.3

Pasco

147

36.1

63.9

220

39.5

60.5

Piura

133

48.1

51.9

249

41.4

58.6

Puno

153

42.5

57.5

269

39.4

60.6

San Martín

134

29.9

70.1

186

35.5

64.5

Tacna

157

61.8

38.2

249

30.9

69.1

Tumbes

134

56.0

44.0

211

36.0

64.0

Ucayali

137

49.6

50.4

228

26.8

73.2

Total

3710

44.6

55.4

6118

36.2

63.8

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13.3.1 ICT Training Levels (ENDO 2014 and 2018) In general, from total percentages, it can be seen that problematic reality registered in 2014 of teachers who did not receive training in ICT use (55.4%) worsened in 2018 (63.8%). This can be seen in Fig. 13.1 (corresponding to 2014), since the green and red lines are quite close together, and even intersect to show that number of trained teachers is higher in some regions, such as in Tacna (trained = 61.8%, untrained = 38.2%), Moquegua (trained = 61.8%, untrained = 38.2%), Tumbes (trained = 56.0%, untrained = 44.0%) and Ica (trained = 54.1%, untrained = 45.9%). On the other hand, Fig. 13.2 (corresponding to 2018) shows a clear distance between green and red lines, which proves that in all regions, without exception, number of untrained teachers is greater. It should be noted that the most critical situation is in Amazonas, with only 18.4% of trained teachers, and region with the highest number of trained teachers does not reach 50%: Moquegua (46.7%). A possible mitigating factor to understand this situation is that ENDO 2018 only considered teachers who received ICT training specifically during 2017 (a year prior to 2018 survey). For this reason, these percentages do not include teachers who have been able to receive training before 2017 or during 2018, since according to the technical data sheet [7], this survey was carried out between October and November of this last year. Despite this, the fact in a whole year (2017) only 36.2% of 6118 teachers have received ICT training continues to reveal a highly worrying situation, even more so

Fig. 13.1 ENDO 2014, question 50

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145

Fig. 13.2 ENDO 2018, question 604

because these are the latest data collected by Ministerio de Educación del Perú before the pandemic and in such a large sample of secondary school teachers.

13.3.2 ICT Training Modalities (ENDO 2018) Question 604A of ENDO 2018 complements in an interesting way the information on training that teachers received about ICT, since it refers to the most recurrent modalities (e-learning, classroom-based and blended learning). In Fig. 13.3, systematized results are shown, which they show a strong preference for classroom-based modality. Unfortunately, the data do not allow to determine reasons for this preference, which could be due to the lack of offer of virtual training, scarce technological resources of teachers, their inexperience with virtual environments, among other reasons. However, it is possible to highlight Huánuco case, which has the highest percentage of teachers trained in e-teaching modality, despite it does not exceed 40%. While the case with the lowest percentage belongs to Loreto, which does not exceed 10%.

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Fig. 13.3 ENDO 2018, question 604A

13.3.3 Education in the Use of ICT During the Teaching Career Table 13.2 was prepared based on the following question: “How would you rate the education you received to be a teacher regarding ICT use in the teaching–learning process?”, which was formulated identically in ENDO 2016 (question 210_6) and ENDO 2018 (question 210A_6). Results allow to complement the panorama on the educational training in ICT use before the pandemic; likewise, they provide very interesting information for two reasons: it is the only one that focuses on specific use of ICT for the teaching–learning process, as well as it is the only question that collects teachers’ perception of the quality of classes they received during their professional education stage. For an easier reading, percentages from Table 13.2 were systematized in Fig. 13.4 (corresponding to ENDO 2016) and Fig. 13.5 (corresponding to ENDO 2018). As can be seen, the darkest line represents percentage of all those who during their teacher education stage did not receive classes on how to use ICT for teaching. It is important to highlight this line registered a decrease from 2016 to 2018, since the total percentage went from to 20.8%. Another positive aspect is recorded is that most regions managed to reduce percentage of untrained teachers in 2018, with the exception of Amazonas (from 22.0 to 28.9%), Apurímac (from 26.1 to 27.5%), Junín (from 19.2 to 21.9%) and Ucayali (from 15.8 to 18.7%).

130

133

146

134

119

358

111

115

140

150

116

Ica

Junín

La Libertad

Lambayeque

Lima

Loreto

Madre de Dios

Moquegua

Pasco

Piura

Callao

Huánuco

112

Cajamarca

131

131

Ayacucho

143

141

Arequipa

Huancavelica

127

Apurímac

Cusco

135

134

Áncash

259

186

189

217

150

160

569

238

242

224

264

204

172

216

181

232

213

226

149

27.6

28.7

58.6

20.9

4.5

29.1

21.8

23.9

19.2

28.6

22.3

23.1

32.1

21.4

31.3

24.1

35.4

26.1

25.9

22.0

21.0

19.6

47.0

14.7

8.1

21.6

18.5

18.6

21.9

22.7

18.6

23.8

13.9

13.3

19.0

15.0

12.8

27.5

17.8

28.9

2018

0.9

6.0

2.1

0.9

1.8

2.0

1.7

2.2

2.1

1.5

7.7

2.1

1.5

0.9

7.6

4.3

3.9

1.5

3.0

3.7

2016

1.6

6.3

3.7

2.0

1.9

2.6

2.9

1.7

4.0

3.0

2.9

1.7

0.9

1.7

3.4

3.8

3.1

2.7

2.7

2.1

2018

2016

142

2018

2016

109

Did not receive it Very bad (%) (%)

Total of teachers (f )

Amazonas

Regions

8.6

14.7

5.0

7.8

7.2

9.8

11.8

15.7

11.6

16.5

13.8

11.9

14.5

5.4

17.6

9.9

6.3

13.4

14.1

6.4

2016

Bad (%)

Table 13.2 Perception on the quality of ICT teaching during their professional education

2018

8.1

12.2

6.0

4.0

20.0

10.2

6.3

8.3

11.2

9.8

10.8

9.3

16.2

10.5

11.6

11.7

9.7

12.1

8.1

10.6

37.1

34.0

18.6

39.1

38.7

32.7

42.0

31.3

43.2

27.1

28.5

35.7

31.3

32.1

22.9

31.2

32.3

27.6

34.8

33.9

2016

37.1

34.9

28.1

30.7

33.1

33.0

34.5

35.5

37.5

33.3

37.3

36.6

38.0

37.6

36.6

34.7

40.7

30.9

37.8

27.5

2018

Regular (%)

19.0

12.0

10.0

25.2

38.7

19.3

19.3

20.9

21.9

16.5

23.8

21.0

16.0

32.1

16.0

26.2

18.9

23.9

17.0

20.2

2016

Good (%)

19.4

23.3

10.6

38.7

28.8

23.6

30.7

28.9

19.6

23.1

25.0

25.0

23.6

26.0

23.3

27.7

28.3

19.5

28.6

25.4

2018

6.9

4.7

5.7

6.1

9.0

7.3

3.4

6.0

2.1

9.8

3.8

6.3

4.6

8.0

4.6

4.3

3.1

7.5

5.2

13.8

2016

(continued)

12.9

3.7

4.6

10.0

8.1

9.0

7.1

7.0

5.8

8.0

5.4

3.5

7.4

11.0

6.0

7.0

5.3

7.4

5.0

5.6

2018

Very good (%)

13 Panorama of Peruvian Secondary Education Teachers Trained in ICT … 147

131

159

127

133

3515

San Martín

Tacna

Tumbes

Ucayali

Total

5447

193

186

232

158

28.3

15.8

46.5

30.8

34.4

42.0

20.8

18.7

34.9

18.1

26.6

19.6

2018

2.7

3.8

0.8

0.6

1.5

3.3

2016

2.6

1.0

3.2

1.7

1.9

2.0

2018

2016

245

2018

2016

150

Did not receive it Very bad (%) (%)

Total of teachers (f )

Puno

Regions

Table 13.2 (continued)

11.6

16.5

16.5

12.6

14.5

8.0

2016

Bad (%)

9.7

5.7

3.8

8.6

7.6

11.0

2018

32.0

35.3

18.9

36.5

27.5

28.0

2016

34.8

35.8

25.3

39.7

34.8

35.9

2018

Regular (%)

19.9

21.1

12.6

15.1

19.8

18.0

2016

Good (%)

24.9

33.7

25.3

25.4

20.9

23.3

2018

5.6

7.5

4.7

4.4

2.3

0.7

2016

7.1

5.2

7.5

6.5

8.2

8.2

2018

Very good (%)

148 M. Gonzales-Macavilca and M. Aguinaga-Villegas

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149

Fig. 13.4 ENDO 2016, question 210_6

Although Loreto presents a similar situation to the last-mentioned regions (since its percentage of untrained teachers rose from 4.5% in 2016 to 8.1% in 2018), this region constitutes a unique case since its figures are the lowest in this both in 2016 and 2018. On the other hand, regions of Arequipa and Puno show a positive evolution, since they managed to reduce in 2018 to less than half the percentage of untrained teachers registered in 2016: Arequipa went from 35.4 to 12.8% and Puno from 42.0 to 19.6%. Finally, it is positive to highlight the fact that total percentages in terms of quality perception of the training received on ICT use has improved for 2018. That is, in 2014, the highest figures were registered in options of “Did not receive it” and “regular” quality, with 28.3% and 32.0%, respectively, while in 2018 the highest percentages correspond to “regular” (34.8%) and “good” (24.9%) quality options.

13.4 Conclusion The present work aimed to determine the panorama of secondary education teachers who received training on ICT use before COVID-19 pandemic. These data are relevant since they allow to know more precisely conditions in which teachers had to

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Fig. 13.5 ENDO 2018, question 210A_6

face the violent transition from classroom based to e-teaching; and, in that sense, serious difficulties they experienced in this process can be better understood. As general conclusions, it is possible to affirm that percentage of trained teachers decreased from 2014 (44.6%) to 2018 (36.2%), which reveals a worrying panorama, since these are the latest data collected by Ministerio de Educación before the pandemic. In addition, among teachers who were trained there is a clear predilection for classroom-based modality. On the other hand, according to ENDO 2018, the majority of teachers who during their education stage (before becoming professionals) did receive classes on ICT use for the for the teaching–learning process consider that the quality was “regular” (34.8%) or “good” (24.9%). However, teachers who affirm that “did not receive it” such education is still quite high (20.5%). Finally, it is expected these results contribute to visualizing the urgency of developing teacher training programs on these issues. Therefore, and due to the limited space of this paper, priority was given to the presentation of data and results obtained, and in that way future researches can continue to delve into this problem.

13 Panorama of Peruvian Secondary Education Teachers Trained in ICT …

151

References 1. Informe del Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). Estado de la niñez y adolescencia, https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/boletines/02-informe-tecniconinez-y-adolescencia-ene-feb-mar-2021.pdf. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 2. Howard, S., Tondeur, J., Ma, J., Yang, J.: What to teach? Strategies for developing digital competency in preservice teacher training. Comput. Educ. 165 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.compedu.2021.104149 3. Cohen, N., Gómez, G.: Metodología de la investigación, ¿para qué?: la producción de los datos y los diseños. 1a. ed. Teseo, Buenos Aires (2019) 4. Encuestas Nacionales a Docentes (ENDO) 2014–2018. http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/uee/-/doc ument_library_display/GMv7/view/4385260. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 5. Ficha técnica. ENDO 2014, http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/documents/10156/4385278/. FICHA+TECNICA+ENDO+2014.pdf?version=1.0. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 6. Ficha técnica. ENDO 2016. http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/documents/10156/4385281/. FICHA+TECNICA+ENDO+2016.pdf?version=1.0. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 7. Ficha técnica. ENDO 2018. http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/documents/10156/5384052/. FICHA+TECNICA+ENDO+2018.pdf?version=1.0. Last Accessed 05 May 2021

Chapter 14

Technological Context of Secondary Education Teachers in Peru Before E-teaching Due to COVID-19. Prepandemic Diagnosis Maricielo Aguinaga-Villegas

and Milton Gonzales-Macavilca

Abstract This study with a quantitative, descriptive and trend approach aims to determine situation of technological resources that secondary education teachers had in Peru just before the transition to e-teaching due to COVID-19. For this, three Surveys to Peruvian Teacher (ENDO) carried out by Ministerio de Educación del Perú before the pandemic, in 2014, 2016 and 2018 were analyzed. The total of secondary education teachers who participated in each year, respectively, were 3710 (78.5% = urban, 21.5% = rural); 3986 (81.9% = urban, 18.1% = rural) and 6118 (85.3% = urban, 14.7% = rural). After analyzing three variables that make up technological context dimension (electricity access, technological devices access and Internet access), it can be concluded that trends do not reveal a clear improvement between 2014 and 2018, and the main difficulty was the Internet access, especially in the regions of Amazonas and Pasco.

14.1 Introduction Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, education in Peru had to adapt to the modality of distance education (according to Ministerial Resolution No. 160-2020-Minedu). The INEI, after first quarter of 2020 school year, reported that in urban areas 82.6% of secondary education students (teenagers from 12 to 16 years old) received e-learning through virtual means; and in rural areas, it was 80.9% [1]. Therefore, this work seeks to determine technological conditions that secondary education teachers faced in this violent transition from classroom to e-teaching. For this, three variables that constitute basic triad of a suitable technological context

M. Aguinaga-Villegas Universidad de Lima, Lima, Peru M. Gonzales-Macavilca (B) Universidad de Ciencias y Humanidades, Lima, Peru e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_14

153

154

M. Aguinaga-Villegas and M. Gonzales-Macavilca

for e-teaching were analyzed: electricity access, technological devices access and Internet connection [2]. The data presented below are intended to promote reflection by academic community and complement future research aligned with this problem. These results may consolidate the proposal for new educational policies that contribute to a significant change for the Peruvian educational system.

14.2 Methodology This study was oriented according to the quantitative, descriptive and trend approach [3], for which a systematic analysis of three databases published by Ministerio de Educación del Perú [4], which they are Surveys to Peruvian Teachers (ENDO in Spanish) of 2014, 2016 and 2018. The sample design of all the surveys was probabilistic, stratified and two-stage, cross-sectional and direct interview. Samples were made up of regular basic educational teachers from three levels (kindergarten, primary and secondary), and the total cases were 9702 teachers in 2014; 9832 in 2016 and 15,092 in 2018 [5–7]. A theoretical-methodological negotiation was essential to extract the most appropriate information according to objectives of the research, because for this study the data analyzed are of a secondary type, since there was no intervention in the design of instruments or in the collection stage. Furthermore, survey was not exactly the same for each year nor was it applied to the same subjects. To do this, all databases were analyzed with the IBM SPSS 26 software, the questionnaires and technical sheets of each ENDO were compared and, finally, the following questions related to technological contexts of teachers were selected: • About electricity service access. ENDO 2014: question 86_13 (“Could you tell me if the place where you live has the following services working?/13 = Electric light”); ENDO 2016: 108_14 (“Does your home have the following services working?/14 = Electric light”); and ENDO 2018: 108A_20 (“Does your main home have the following services working?/20 = Electric light”). • On technological devices access. ENDO 2014: 86_3-4 (“Could you tell me if the place where you live has the following services working?/3 = PC, 4 = Laptop, Notebook, etc.”); ENDO 2016: 108_5 (“Does your home have the following services working?/5 = PC or Laptop”) and 703 (“Has a mobile”/YesNot); and ENDO 2018: 108A_12 (“Does your main home have the following services working?/12 = PC or Laptop”) and 703_1 (“Has a mobile”/1 = Yes, a smartphone). • About Internet access: ENDO 2014: 86_6 (“Could you tell me if the place where you live has the following services working?/6 = Internet”); ENDO 2016: 108_6 (“Does your home have the following services working?/6 = Internet”); and ENDO 2018: 108A_15 (“Does your main home have the following services working?/15 = Internet”).

14 Technological Context of Secondary Education Teachers in Peru Before …

155

14.2.1 Sample In ENDO 2014, 3710 secondary education teachers were registered (78.5% = urban, 21.5% = rural); in ENDO 2016, 3986 (81.9% = urban, 18.1% = rural) and in ENDO 2018, 6118 (85.3% = urban, 14.7% = rural).

14.3 Results 14.3.1 Electricity Access For Table 14.1, it was pertinent to divide results according to regions that make up Peru and rural and urban areas. In this way, reading is more precise and, therefore, it is possible to identify where teachers with the greatest difficulties of access to electric light are. Total percentages reflect that evolution (or trend) is upward in rural areas (93.5% in 2014, 94.6% in 2016 and 96.2% in 2018), but slightly downward in urban areas (98.1% in 2014, 98% in 2016 and 97.2% in 2018). Regarding regions, results are not homogeneous, since, for example, the rural areas with the lowest percentages in 2018 (Amazonas = 79.4% and Loreto = 83.9%) registered different trends. Amazonas shows a decrease from 2014 (76%) to 2016 (69%), but an increase toward 2018 (79.4%), but in the Loreto case the decrease is constant from 2014 (95.1%) to 2018 (83.9%). Although in general this is the service that presents the highest percentages, it is evident that by 2018 the lowest percentages belong to teachers from rural areas. On the other hand, for this same year, in urban areas, percentages do not drop below 93% (Ucayali).

14.3.2 Technological Devices Access In Table 14.2, variations presented by surveys had to be adapted. In ENDO 2014, PC and laptop were considered as different alternatives; in ENDO 2016, these were merged, which was maintained in ENDO 2018. The total percentages show a positive trend in terms of PC or laptop access, since it went from 70.1% and 58.4% in 2014 to 87.4% in 2016 and to 89.1% in 2018. And in this last year, Loreto (73.3%) and Tumbes (79.6%) regions present the lowest percentages. Finally, regarding smartphones access, ENDO 2018, allows us to observe the ones that present the greatest difficulties were regions of Pasco (51.4%) and Amazonas (55.8%). And Callao (91.5%) and Tacna (90.4%) are on the opposite side, whose percentages are the highest in the country.

ENDO 2016

ENDO 2018

97.3

42

3

37

64

0

37

Apurímac

Arequipa

Ayacucho

Cajamarca

Callao

Cusco

95.2

42

6

30

30

19

16

41

29

21

46

31

Huánuco

Ica

Junín

La Libertad

Lambayeque

Lima

Loreto

Madre de Dios

Moquegua

Pasco

Piura

100

97.8

100

89.7

95.1

100

100

100

100

83.3

98.6

Huancavelica 71

0.0

98.4

91.9

100

100

100

37

76.0

50

Áncash

102

101

123

103

76

390

131

117

124

129

91

75

107

86

67

99

143

94

116

69

99.0

98.0

96.7

95.1

100

99.5

100

99.1

98.4

99.2

97.8

97.3

97.2

100

98.5

94.9

99.3

96.8

99.1

92.8

24

50

27

20

32

19

12

25

24

4

35

59

38

0

56

41

4

44

39

42

91.7

94.0

96.3

80.0

93.8

100

100

92.0

100

100

94.3

94.9

100

0.0

94.6

100

100

97.7

100

69.0

120

111

124

105

87

428

141

124

139

144

104

95

114

140

85

113

152

107

121

88

97.5

94.6

98.4

94.3

98.9

98.8

98.6

98.4

99.3

100

93.3

98.9

98.2

99.3

96.5

99.1

99.3

95.3

99.2

93.2

54

51

40

20

31

69

33

40

27

29

30

40

34

0

60

39

30

27

68

34

100

98.0

100

100

83.9

97.1

90.9

95.0

96.3

96.6

90.0

97.5

94.1

0.0

100

100

100

92.6

98.5

79.4

195

169

185

150

134

552

239

223

241

243

196

150

220

211

183

218

218

151

217

124

(continued)

97.9

95.9

98.4

93.3

94.0

98.7

97.1

98.7

98.8

97.9

95.4

98.7

98.6

99.5

99.5

95.9

95.4

98.7

94.9

96.8

Rural Electricity Urban Electricity (%) Rural Electricity (%) Urban Electricity (%) Rural Electricity (%) Urban Electricity (%) teachers (%) teachers teachers teachers teachers teachers (f ) (f ) (f ) (f ) (f ) (f )

ENDO 2014

Amazonas

Regions

Table 14.1 Evolution of access of secondary education teachers to electric light service (2014–2018)

156 M. Aguinaga-Villegas and M. Gonzales-Macavilca

ENDO 2016

ENDO 2018

39

34

12

15

46

798

San Martín

Tacna

Tumbes

Ucayali

Total

93.5

54.3

93.3

100

97.1

94.9

2912

91

119

145

100

114

98.1

93.4

99.2

100

100

94.7

721

40

9

15

22

40

94.6

100

88.9

93.3

100

97.5

3265

104

127

155

116

121

98.0

99.0

95.3

100

98.3

100

902

42

17

30

23

34

96.2

100

94.1

100

91.3

100

5216

186

194

219

163

235

97.2

93.0

95.9

98.2

96.3

98.3

Rural Electricity Urban Electricity (%) Rural Electricity (%) Urban Electricity (%) Rural Electricity (%) Urban Electricity (%) teachers (%) teachers teachers teachers teachers teachers (f ) (f ) (f ) (f ) (f ) (f )

ENDO 2014

Puno

Regions

Table 14.1 (continued)

14 Technological Context of Secondary Education Teachers in Peru Before … 157

ENDO 2016

ENDO 2018

72.9

136

146

136

131

86

144

Apurímac

Arequipa

Ayacucho

Cajamarca

Callao

Cusco

144

147

133

Pasco

Piura

406

Lima

Moquegua

150

Lambayeque

117

147

La Libertad

132

154

Junín

Madre de Dios

135

Ica

Loreto

71.4

133

Huánuco

66.2

73.5

69.4

61.4

62.4

77.1

79.3

63.9

70.8

74.1

65.8

Huancavelica 146

80.2

71.0

72.8

67.8

68.4

73.9

153

47.1

119

Áncash

54.9

77.6

73.6

56.8

56.4

63.1

58.7

51.0

66.2

55.6

53.4

71.9

54.9

58.1

41.2

44.9

63.7

56.6

74.5

47.1

97.7

95.9

95.8

90.2

92.3

94.6

96.0

91.8

96.1

97.0

92.5

94.5

90.3

96.5

96.2

88.2

96.6

91.9

91.5

94.1

144

161

151

125

119

447

153

149

163

148

139

154

152

140

141

154

156

151

160

130

82.6

88.2

90.1

86.4

78.2

95.7

92.8

93.3

89.6

93.2

73.4

82.5

88.8

95.0

86.5

82.5

95.5

80.8

86.9

64.6

96.5

100.0

99.3

99.2

95.8

98.2

98.7

97.3

97.5

98.0

95.7

100.0

99.3

92.9

97.2

98.7

97.4

97.4

97.5

99.2

249

220

225

170

165

621

272

263

268

272

226

190

254

211

243

257

248

178

285

158

85.9

91.4

91.1

83.5

73.3

91.5

91.9

87.8

94.4

90.8

81.9

87.9

92.5

91.0

91.4

91.4

92.3

86.5

91.9

83.5

(continued)

88.8

51.4

70.5

72.0

78.7

70.6

72.7

82.4

69.8

72.7

75.2

67.9

76.0

91.5

81.5

85.2

84.9

71.2

71.4

55.8

Teachers (f ) PC (%) Laptop/notebook (%) Mobile (%) Teachers (f ) PC/laptop (%) Mobile (%) Teachers (f ) PC/laptop (%) Mobile (smartphone) (%)

ENDO 2014

Amazonas

Regions

Table 14.2 Evolution of access of secondary education teachers to technological devices (2014–2018)

158 M. Aguinaga-Villegas and M. Gonzales-Macavilca

ENDO 2016

ENDO 2018

153

134

157

134

137

3710

San Martín

Tacna

Tumbes

Ucayali

Total

70.1

44.5

64.9

79.6

74.6

82.4

58.4

49.6

41.0

59.9

45.5

63.4

93.6

78.1

95.5

94.3

96.3

93.5

3986

144

136

170

138

161

87.4

83.3

77.9

97.1

84.8

90.7

97.8

97.9

93.4

98.2

98.6

99.4

6118

228

211

249

186

269

89.1

80.7

79.6

95.6

86.0

94.8

75.5

79.1

68.1

90.4

80.1

75.8

Teachers (f ) PC (%) Laptop/notebook (%) Mobile (%) Teachers (f ) PC/laptop (%) Mobile (%) Teachers (f ) PC/laptop (%) Mobile (smartphone) (%)

ENDO 2014

Puno

Regions

Table 14.2 (continued)

14 Technological Context of Secondary Education Teachers in Peru Before … 159

160

M. Aguinaga-Villegas and M. Gonzales-Macavilca

14.3.3 Internet Access In Table 14.3, according to total percentages, it can be seen that there is not a homogeneous trend. In rural areas, there is a decrease from 2014 to 2016 (from 41.2 to 37.7%), but an increase toward 2018 (44.8%). However, in urban areas, the opposite occurs, from 2014 to 2016, there is a slight increase (from 66.2 to 66.6%), but a decrease toward 2018 (64.1%). Even so, differences in Internet access between rural and urban areas are the most notable of all those analyzed in this study. For example, in rural areas, toward 2018, whose data were the last collected by Ministerio de Educación before the pandemic, regions of Amazonas (17.6%) and Pasco (23.5%) present the most critical situation of connectivity at the national level (less than 25%). And these are the same (37.9% and 38.5%, respectively) that also present greater difficulties in the urban area, along with Huancavelica (38%).

14.4 Conclusion The present work aimed to present technological situation of secondary education teachers in Peru before the COVID-19 pandemic. These data are relevant to the extent that they allow to know or accurately diagnose conditions in which teachers had to face the violent transition from face-to-face to e-teaching, and in that sense to better understand the serious difficulties that they were experienced in this process. As general conclusions, it is possible to affirm that rural areas presented greater difficulties in three variables analyzed (electricity, technological devices and Internet access). Also, despite the fact that total percentages of three tables do not reflect an improvement in technological contexts between 2014 and 2018, it can be seen that levels of electricity access are quite high; and the greatest difficulty for secondary education teachers in Peru was the Internet access, especially in Amazonas and Pasco regions. However, for more accurate information, it is recommended to carry out comparative and complementary research with a larger sample, especially in rural areas, since in ENDO 2016 and 2018 surveys, more than 80% of the participants were teachers from urban areas. On the other hand, due to the limited space of this paper, priority was given to the presentation of the data and results obtained. In this way, future researchers will be able to deepen their reading and analysis, and even they find details or relationships that may be useful for the implementation of strategies or policies that favor the continuous improvement of the educational reality of Peru.

ENDO 2014

ENDO 2016

ENDO 2018

30

19

16

La Libertad

Lambayeque

Lima

31

30

Junín

46

6

Ica

Piura

42

Huánuco

Pasco

Huancavelica 71

21

37

Cusco

Moquegua

0

Callao

41

64

Cajamarca

29

38.1

37

Ayacucho

Madre de Dios

35.2

3

Arequipa

Loreto

35.1

42

Apurímac

14.0

35.5

23.9

42.9

20.7

58.5

43.8

63.2

80.0

26.7

33.3

0.0

53.1

43.2

66.7

26.2

54.1

50

37

Áncash

102

101

123

103

76

390

131

117

124

129

91

75

107

86

67

99

143

94

116

69

75.5

30.7

59.3

63.1

57.9

82.8

87.8

77.8

62.1

80.6

63.7

29.3

46.7

86.0

52.2

59.6

79.0

40.4

68.1

36.2

24

50

27

20

32

19

12

25

24

4

35

59

38

0

56

41

4

44

39

42

29.2

16.0

40.7

45.0

37.5

42.1

91.7

68.0

25.0

100.0

34.3

27.1

23.7

0.0

58.9

22.0

100.0

36.4

33.3

16.7

120

111

124

105

87

428

141

124

139

144

104

95

114

140

85

113

152

107

121

88

70.8

32.4

59.7

61.9

55.2

85.5

84.4

85.5

59.0

84.7

53.8

43.2

57.9

87.9

52.9

49.6

76.3

44.9

61.2

28.4

54

51

40

20

31

69

33

40

27

29

30

40

34

0

60

39

30

27

68

34

37.0

23.5

32.5

45.0

29.0

56.5

75.8

47.5

48.1

72.4

36.7

32.5

38.2

0.0

70.0

25.6

50.0

33.3

48.5

17.6

195

169

185

150

134

552

239

223

241

243

196

150

220

211

183

218

218

151

217

124

(continued)

63.6

38.5

73.5

49.3

44.8

79.2

77.4

78.9

56.4

74.9

54.6

38.0

57.7

78.2

62.3

52.3

67.9

54.3

72.8

37.9

Rural Internet (%) Urban Internet (%) Rural Inter Urban Internet (%) Rural Internet (%) Urban Internet (%) teachers (f ) teachers (f ) teachers net (%) teachers teachers teachers (f ) (f ) (f ) (f )

Amazonas

Regions

Table 14.3 Evolution of access of secondary education teachers to internet service (2014–2018)

14 Technological Context of Secondary Education Teachers in Peru Before … 161

ENDO 2014

ENDO 2016

ENDO 2018

39

34

12

15

46

798

San Martín

Tacna

Tumbes

Ucayali

Total

41.2

37.0

53.3

75.0

61.8

41.0

2912

91

119

145

100

114

66.2

61.5

72.3

81.4

62.0

46.5

721

40

9

15

22

40

37.7

35.0

66.7

66.7

54.5

45.0

3265

104

127

155

116

121

66.6

71.2

61.4

85.8

64.7

51.2

902

42

17

30

23

34

44.8

47.6

70.6

66.7

26.1

41.2

5216

186

194

219

163

235

64.1

59.1

71.1

89.0

54.0

51.1

Rural Internet (%) Urban Internet (%) Rural Inter Urban Internet (%) Rural Internet (%) Urban Internet (%) teachers (f ) teachers (f ) teachers net (%) teachers teachers teachers (f ) (f ) (f ) (f )

Puno

Regions

Table 14.3 (continued)

162 M. Aguinaga-Villegas and M. Gonzales-Macavilca

14 Technological Context of Secondary Education Teachers in Peru Before …

163

References 1. Informe del Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). Estado de la niñez y adolescencia. https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/boletines/02-informe-tecniconinez-y-adolescencia-ene-feb-mar-2021.pdf. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 2. Howard, S., Tondeur, J., Ma, J., Yang, J.: What to teach? Strategies for developing digital competency in preservice teacher training. Comput. Educ. 165 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.compedu.2021.104149 3. Cohen, N., Gómez, G.: Metodología de la investigación, ¿para qué?: la producción de los datos y los diseños. 1a. ed. Teseo, Buenos Aires (2019) 4. Encuestas Nacionales a Docentes (ENDO) 2014–2018. http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/uee/-/doc ument_library_display/GMv7/view/4385260. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 5. Ficha técnica. ENDO 2014. http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/documents/10156/4385278/. FICHA+TECNICA+ENDO+2014.pdf?version=1.0. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 6. Ficha técnica. ENDO 2016. http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/documents/10156/4385281/. FICHA+TECNICA+ENDO+2016.pdf?version=1.0. Last Accessed 05 May 2021 7. Ficha técnica. ENDO 2018. http://escale.minedu.gob.pe/documents/10156/5384052/. FICHA+TECNICA+ENDO+2018.pdf?version=1.0. Last Accessed 05 May 2021

Chapter 15

Are VR and AR Really Viable in Military Education?: A Position Paper Mauro Ocaña , Andrea Luna , Valeria Yarad Jeada , Henry Cruz Carrillo , Fernando Alvear , and Marco Rosales

Abstract When people talk about virtual reality (VR) or augmented reality (AR), they usually associate these novel technologies with leisure activities. In the case of the armed forces, more often than not, enthusiasts tend to relate videos games (e.g., Call of Duty) to military training and education. However, little is known about the true potential, these technologies may bring to modern-day armed forces specially in the Latin American context. This position paper thoroughly presents some real possibilities about VR and AR in the military education and training, how they are being used by defense forces and what is required in the short term to foresee the possibilities other armies are already harnessing to date. In addition, a brief comparative analysis between advantages and disadvantages in the adoption of both technologies was made to know a more accurate scenario of them. Issues that may arise from the acceptance of such technologies are also discussed as well M. Ocaña (B) · A. Luna · V. Y. Jeada · H. C. Carrillo · F. Alvear · M. Rosales Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas—ESPE, Sangolquí, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] A. Luna e-mail: [email protected] V. Y. Jeada e-mail: [email protected] H. C. Carrillo e-mail: [email protected] F. Alvear e-mail: [email protected] M. Rosales e-mail: [email protected] M. Ocaña Departamento de Pedagogía, Facultad de Filosofía, Universidad Técnica de Manabí, Letras y Ciencias de la Educación, Portoviejo, Ecuador A. Luna Universidad de Jaén, Jaén, Andalucía, España © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_15

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as how research can support a sustainable pathway toward the utilization of VR and AR in the context of Latin American armed forces.

15.1 Introduction Virtual reality (VR) and its sibling augmented reality (AR) are more than just mere buzzwords in the academic world. To date, a quick overview of two of the most important multidisciplinary databases as Scopus (Elsevier) and Web of Science (Thompsom Reuters) shows that there is an increasing interest since the beginning of this century. Alongside, there are misleading statements that either overestimate or underrate concrete possibilities of VR and AR in fields such as that of military education and training. Based on current tendencies, this paper attempts to unfold the real potential these technologies can bring particularly to the military sector. First, the growth and uses of VR and AR are analyzed with special emphasis on applications in the military field. Simultaneously, some examples are shown concerning real-life applications. Then advantages and disadvantages of the AR uses have been pondered along with some issues and controversies that may attract the criticism of the research community. Our paper finishes by reflecting on the adoption of VR/AR in Latin American countries.

15.1.1 The Financial Growth of VR/AR The military sector is increasing its budget on VR and AR for the training of its soldiers. Big tech companies such as Alphabet1 (owner of Google [1]), Samsung [2], Microsoft [3] or Qualcomm are just a few of the strongest AR investors in the military field. Although the highest rates of investment in VR/AR come from Europe, China or the United States of America, some reports [4] reveal financial trends that position Latin America as one of the regions with growing interest on these technologies. These reports on VR expenses were previously announced by other business intelligence firms such as Deloitte in 2019 [5]. To have a glimpse of how much tech companies are investing on VR, Microsoft alone won a contract for $480 million with the U.S Department of Defense back in 2018, and it is planning to receive funding for VR technology from the Pentagon for around $22 billion dollars over the coming ten years [6]. Since investment in the security and defense of a country is a great budgetary decision, this must be made with caution and, above all, after following the successes and failures of early VR/AR adopters [7]. In the next section, we will analyze some of the most common uses of VR/AR within an armed forces context. 1

https://abc.xyz/.

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15.1.2 Military Applications of VR/AR When talking about VR/AR, a common misconception is that human beings may detach from their surroundings in the real world. This is not only inaccurate but it can also be extremely life-threatening in the case of a soldier. The use of AR does not equate to isolate oneself from the reality and submerge in a virtual world but it means to be supported by technology that brings in high-quality data in a timely manner. As the Cyber Affordance Visualization in Augmented Reality (CAVIAR) project at Carnegie Mellon University shows, AR uses digital objects (e.g., images, audio, video, text) to superimpose them over real world and provide on-time information to soldiers [8]. For instance, Fig. 15.1 shows a comparison of a mission with and without the aid of AR. On the left image, there is a natural view, whereas the right image shows how the environment is seen with the assistance of AR. The latter shows information on the head-worn display such as the address, a close Wi-Fi connection, the IP address of a phone and (debatably) the twitter user of an individual with his last post. In other words, AR is reality, only better. With this in mind, one of the purposes of the U.S Army is to put AR at the fingertips of the front-line soldiers through the creation of specialized units such as the Army Cyber Command or ARCYBER (see https://www.arcyber.army.mil/). VR/AR can cover a wide range of uses in the armed forces within an educational perspective from teaching military history [9] to operational and strategic planning in the field. For example, universities [10, 11] use AR to connect with military history [12] and recall the reality of past wars [13, 14]. During military education, cadets are required to exert a good set of verbal communication strategies too. To develop dexterity in speech skills, there are some VR environments [15] that report on different efficiency metrics when delivering a speech (number of fillers, eye contact with the audience, speaking pace, etc.). Regarding military conditioning, there is a variety of head-mounted displays (or eyewear) incorporated on helmets or training platforms that simulate environments similar to those that soldiers will face in real life. But fully training in front of a screen and playing View without AR

Fig. 15.1 Mission with and without AR [8]

View with AR

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a military-like game will not prepare soldiers to react adequately against a real-life gunfire in a danger zone. Against this background, there are specialized centers such as the US Army Combined Arms Center [16], the United States Army Research Laboratory [17] or the Institute for Creative Technologies at the University of Southern California [18] which have been working on creating artificial training environments that will integrate physical and mental training in high stressing combat situations. When combined with real-life settings, AR can provide an enhanced instruction to prepare soldiers in an immersive environment including concurrent communications. In military exercise evaluation, distributed interactive simulation (DIS) is a strategy that is being used for training military personnel. The virtual environment (VE) platform creates a new style of group conditioning where individuals who are physically separated from one another may yet practice together as though they were together. Even though the same information is communicated and a phone line is used, a circumstance like this may obstruct the necessary team communication. The effectiveness of training can be impacted by variations in team member interactions between trials. The military has long sought to improve team performance and conduct effective team training. It is thought that effective communication can significantly improve performance. An area of research that is still understudied is the investigation of team communication styles and how these styles relate to performance [19]. So far, the several specialized units from the U.S armed forces offer persuasive evidence that AR/VR are serious ways of training personnel through ongoing research. The next section will delve into more thorough uses of AR/VR across different branches of the armed forces. Then Sect. 15.3 compares aspects between technologies so that Sect. 15.4 touches on controversial facets around VR/AR. In the final section, a brief discussion with main conclusions and proposed research questions is presented.

15.2 Survey of Trends This section will look at some of the current VR/AR uses across domains in the armed forces. From recruiting to highly specialized training, these technologies have proven useful. To start, this section will have a quick look at these domains. As some other countries in the western hemisphere, the U.S Air Force has an insufficient number of pilots [20], in many cases, because the rate of progress in learning a new skill is low. This has forced the government to launch programs that include VR and AR, such as the Pilot Training Next (PTN) program [21] or the Air University [22], with the purpose of attracting younger generations of pilots. It is likely that the U.S Air Force will soon be adopting other VR technologies applied, e.g., to instruction of personnel in the maintenance operations field [23] as in the program Member Operations Training Analytics and Reports (MOTAR) originally called “Maintenance Operations and Training in Augmented Reality” (Fig. 15.2 shows how AR supports aircraft maintenance operations and training). Likewise,

15 Are VR and AR Really Viable in Military Education?: A Position Paper Left: view from AR goggles warning of hazardous situations

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Right: view from a MOTAR headset assisting a maintainer

Fig. 15.2 Views from AR headsets in aircraft maintenance operations and training

marine corps have also been a using such technologies to convince a larger number of newcomers to join their training programs with less expensive and easy-to-use equipment [24]. Concerning the members who already joined the armed forces, the U.S. Navy has been incorporating VR into their curriculum through initiatives such as Tactically Reconfigurable Artificial Combat Enhanced Reality (TRACER) to generate different combat scenarios for their personnel [25]. When applicable to actual military missions, VR/AR also seem to offer a pathway to innovation. During land operations in Afghanistan, it was known that one of the safest armored vehicles to stay in was the CV90 battle tank. But, with such a heavy armory, it was difficult for operators to see what was happening outside. This type of constraints has prompted researchers to find solutions. As a result, BAE systems presented a cutting-edge version of the tank by making it “transparent” to its passengers through a system of VR sensors that project a fully 360° of outside vision inside the tank [26]. These are only a small variety of applications which have proven useful in the military field. But what about human development of military? The accession to these new technologies will inevitably press the emergence of new teaching and learning strategies as well as the change in combat paradigms. The next section will discuss important facets in relation to these aspects.

15.2.1 AR as an Aid of Situational Awareness Situational awareness (SA) is the capability to recognize “entities in the environment” as well as to understand their meaning, and what role they fulfill in the surrounding medium in the short term [27]. Since identification of SA in World War I, it has become a key concept in the safety of soldiers [28] as it avoids human error.

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Fig. 15.3 Soldier using the integrated visual augmentation system (IVAS) during training at Fort Pickett, VA (October, 2020). Source U.S Army

It is possible to enhance SA through the use of VR/AR. For this purpose, the U.S. Army acquired Microsoft-patented goggles with an Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) which contains several features (e.g., night vision or heat sensors to detect specific threats) necessary for the deployment in warfare or conflict zones [29]. The Integrated Visual Augmentation System (IVAS) comes with a broad array of features that combine high resolution sensors with a state-of-the-art screen to display on-time processed information [30]. This will provide land forces with different capabilities which range from tactical packages and cloud services to human performance analytics. However, when DARPA2 introduced the concept of “shared situational awareness” [31], the game changed. Typically, the use of other dismounted devices used in military tasks (GPS devices, mobile maps and others) require that soldiers look downwards to search for information, and thus diverting their attention from events happening in their presence which puts them in a high risk during life-threatening situations. With the aid of AR, soldiers can have immediate shared situational awareness without looking away from their targets or other hostile elements (see Fig. 15.3). With a similar purpose, Applied Research Associates (ARA) developed the ARC4 system, a weightless visor with powerful detection software which incorporates sensors fused into an augmented reality generator [32]. As shown in Fig. 15.4, a soldier can see the real battleground through a display which shows virtual icons of allied forces, navigation pathways, aerial assistance and further critical information. These initiatives seem to be quite suitable for on-foot soldiers. But what if training or combat events take place in air space? To address this issue, for a long time, the 2

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (https://www.darpa.mil/).

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Fig. 15.4 View from a soldier perspective wearing the ARC4 system. Source ARA

aviation industry has been researching on ways to equip pilots with head-up displays (HUDs). A head-up display (HUD) supplies “pilots with flight data symbology on a transparent combiner glass while at the same time permitting them to observe the out-the-window view” [33]. HUDs came on the scene in some countries around the middle of the last century (for a further review see [34]). As stated by Newman [34], “[t]he chief motivation behind the evolution of HUDs was to place flight information where the pilot was looking—out the windshield. Originally, this was thought of as a means of improving pilot airmanship during combat” (p.7). This concept has gained traction in aeronautics to the point that current state-of-the-art aircrafts have strongly developed HUDs with AR capabilities. One notable example is the USD 400,000 helmet for the F-35 Lightning II3 pilots. This fifth-generation aircraft has been hailed as the one fighter jet to join them all since it is expected to combine what no other aircrafts have (stealth, with vertical take off/landing capabilities and a supersonic speed) besides arguably being the most expensive weapon of all the time due to, among others, several delays in production [35]. Yet, Lockheed Martin,4 the manufacturer of the F-35, has partnered with Rockwell Collins5 to develop an AR helmet which lets pilots “look through” the main fuselage and wings. Equipped with never-seen-before systems of cameras and sensors, the pilot of a F-35 wears a VR headset with several cutting-edge features, such as, day/night vision, 360° view around the aircraft and critical information displayed in front of the pilot’s eyes [36]. All these mechanisms aim at putting big data in action. This helps pilots to increase their situational awareness as all the overwhelming amount of data is condensed in the helmet to offer them actionable

3

See the Joint Strike Fighter program at https://www.jsf.mil/. https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/f-35.html. 5 https://www.collinsaerospace.com. 4

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Fig. 15.5 U.S Air Force Tech. Sgt. Farnsworth tests a F-35 helmet at Hill Air Force Base. Source U.S. Air Force

insights.6 However, prior to flying a multi-million dollar bomber, pilots must be trained in these new technologies. Taking that into consideration, flying forces can avail of helmet-mounted displays for simulation and training of military aircrafts (Fig. 15.5).7

15.3 Advantages and Disadvantages of VR/AR Following are some of the most known advantages and disadvantages related to the adoption of VR/AR technologies.

15.3.1 Advantages of Adopting VR/AR Cost-effective training might be one of the top benefits as AR avoids incurring on high military budgets associated with tanks, weapons and other military equipment. AR is currently better embedded in mixed reality. AR can provide both military strategic planners and on-foot soldiers with the tools to improve decisions in the war

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For further details see: https://www.collinsaerospace.com/what-we-do/industries/military-anddefense/displays-and-controls/airborne/helmet-mounted-displays/f-35-gen-iii-helmet-mounteddisplay-system (Retrieved 01 July, 2022). 7 https://www.collinsaerospace.com/what-we-do/industries/military-and-defense/displays-andcontrols/simulation-and-training-helmet-mounted-displays (Retrieved 01 July, 2022).

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field. The former with a more global vision of the scenarios to conduct resources, equipment and time and the latter with timely data to manage specific situations. In addition, AR equips soldiers with cognitive skills which cannot be fully exploited in a paper or 2D screen environments. AR can also bring new cognitive experiences which are still to be studied. Other advantages include: risk-free combat training, multiplicity of options in regard to geographical adaptations, increased consciousness about the surrounding environment, a higher number of opportunities to access training in a local precinct, live pointing helpers, more engaging learning activities, desensitization in posttraumatic stress disorders, better cognitive responses based on self-regulated learning and resource optimization. In a few words, the purpose of VR is enhancement, not replacement. Anyhow, the AR/VR technologies are flooding all sectors, and it is up to us to either adopt them or be abandoned by them.

15.3.2 Disadvantages of Adopting VR/AR Although for some people VR/AR may sound as a hype, it is also important to take into account some sources of uncertainty. For instance, too much reliance on VR/AR technologies may put at risk human decision-making. It is also believed that, with the continuous use of VR/AR, other human capabilities (e.g., map reading) may soon fade away. These human skills may be also confronted with a high information overload. The (big) data produced by VR/AR may also contribute to hinder appropriate decisionmaking if not properly supported by efficient information systems. Further research is required in this regard which is precisely one of the main interests in our research group along with other educational promises of VR/AR. Since VR/AR stimulates senses and makes the human eyes to perceive the reality in another way, and therefore learn from it differently, new teaching methods may be necessary in the near future. These teaching methods and potential areas of research interest are also associated with the information overload received through VR devices. Regarding the handling and production of data, security concerns around these matters are also part of our group. Additionally, depending on the type of technology and how immersive it is, cyber sickness can be an elusive challenge to face. Other obstacles for a widespread adoption may be related to costs. Despite the fact that many AR mobile apps are free, prices of headsets are currently high until mass production becomes mainstream. A final disadvantage may be associated with a cosmetic-functional factor. Nowadays, headsets are bulky and their connection to some device to function properly might be cumbersome.

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15.4 Main Controversies Around VR/AR As promising as they may seem, despite their pros and cons, VR/AR development programs are not without controversies. For example, the U.S Army’s Integrated Visual Augmentation System’s (IVAS) raised the concerns of U.S Congressmen [37] due to, among others, unknown situations and unexpected delays. But, the biggest controversy emerges from the unpredictable capabilities that AR would provide soldiers in terms of lethality. This is what was declared by some employees at Microsoft who expressed their concerns in this regard and refused to continue working on such endeavors. Such incident forced the President of Microsoft himself to address those solicitudes through a public statement to encourage open and direct communication with employees on these matters [38]. Similarly, around 3000 Google employees rejected to collaborate in projects such as the $10 billion Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure (JEDI) contract or the Project Maven [39] claiming that Google should not enter the “war business”. But contrary to Microsoft, which positioned itself as a U.S government ally, Google put on hold such negotiations. The prospective scenario, however, seems to be unresolved. Fierce competition among tech giants will not prevent them from finding a way to reach multibillion dollar deals with governments (see, e.g., Google’s Project Iris or Meta’s Project Cambria). There are also some disputes regarding the effectiveness of military training in virtual environments. The debate on the careful selection of civilian personnel to join the armed forces centers around three axes which may affect the effectivity of traditional military training versus a virtual environment. These three axes refer to (1) the learner (their individual motivation, preferences for the use of technology, individual traits, etc.), (2) the teacher (pedagogical support and effective communication) and finally (3) the tools used and the quality and type of content delivered (e.g., animation, events, characters and even course design) [40]. Another controversy may arise from animal rights activists who claim that the U.S Army may be equipping dogs with enhanced capabilities of HoloLens to search for drugs, bombs or even engage them in military combat [41] (Fig. 15.6).

15.5 Discussion and Conclusions From high-end projects to more affordable options, VR/AR is interwoven with innovation and permeating all the fields of Armed Forces. The uses of VR/AR in the defense field can be extrapolated to areas such as the acquisition of cultural skills used in military operations [42], the application of medicine on the battlefield or risky contingency operations such as those on Afghanistan [43]. In this context, our paper has given special attention to the pathways that defense forces (particularly from the U.S) are taking in regard to AR as well as VR. It is in our interest to open the debate about the possible applications of these technologies in the prospective scenarios of Latin American nations. This would be particularly

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Fig. 15.6 Canine head-mounted display [41]

important in those countries with high internal and external conflicts due to problems such as drugs and people trafficking. These territories need soldiers prepared to tackle these problems instantly, by being proactive in the face of danger. It is in those situations that the use of these technologies in military training can be of great help as they minimize costs and also provide immersive environments in accordance with the situations at hand [44]. But VR/AR is not only being used with the purpose to dissipate enemy threats. It is also used as a way to inform people of the unimaginable pains of war. Take for instance the Home After War project [https://www.homeafterwar.net/], an immersive story which will submerge a common audience into the real-life events taken place in Fallujah, Iraq. These experiences may raise awareness of the need to prevent wars and learn from those who have survived them. With the availability of all these resources, it is clear that the possibilities of research grow. The performance of immersive technologies will benefit educational undertakings in the application of new methods, getting adult military students to develop motivation in the preference for the use of technology which will improve their management in specific war situations. In the end, the uses of VR/AR come down to a higher accuracy in the operational tasks by improving safety for soldiers and reaching a higher lethality against the enemies. In Latin America, it is necessary to invest in new technologies, including VR/AR and The Internet of Military Things (IoMT), to pilot the training of the Armed Forces personnel with the assistance of specialized units, and thus monitor the progress and performance of soldiers. These experiences would allow improving strategies in the field by modeling specific scenarios to deal with real-life problems such as drug dealing or people trafficking. VR and specifically AR are transitioning from a pilot stage to a productivity plateau which can be translated in reducing operating costs by simultaneously improving soldier performance. However, it is observed that the USA and other

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developed countries are committed to those training processes and that the countries of Latin America are not yet involved in these practices. Technically, it is possible for most Latin American countries to implement most, if not all, the research pathways presented here. Early adopters of VR/AR will likely gain ground rapidly over those who are reluctant to adopt them. Future research may go from the creation of visors which display some basic data on-screen to more advanced devices which project complex scenarios based on real-life examples. There are many research questions left to respond but the most relevant question yet to answer is how well idiosyncratically prepared are our defense forces to adopt AR/VR?

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21. Gonzalez, J.: Pilot training next, air force ROTC partner for distance learning instruction. Air Education and Training Command Public Affairs (2020) 22. Teaching and learning center. The Air University (2022). Available from: https://www.airuni versity.af.edu/TLC/ 23. Hudson, A.: Augmented reality goes mainstream (2022) 24. Harkins, G.: Marine recruiters want cutting-edge VR flight simulators to attract pilots (2020) 25. Sailors use augmented reality to train for combat (2019). Available from: https://www.photon ics.com/Articles/Sailors_Use_Augmented_Reality_to_Train_for_Combat/a64948 26. Thorén, O.: BAE systems, CV90 (2018). Available from: https://www.baesystems.com/en/pro duct/cv90 27. Munir, A., Aved, A., Blasch, E.: Situational awareness: techniques, challenges, and prospects. AI 3(1), 55–77 (2022) 28. Stanton, N.A., Chambers, P.R.G., Piggott, J.: Situational awareness and safety. Saf. Sci. 39(3), 189–204 (2001) 29. Siter, B.: Soldiers test new IVAS technology, capabilities with hand-on exercises (2019) 30. Project Manager. Integrated visual augmentation system PM IVAS, P.E.O. Soldier, Editor (2020) 31. Nofi, A.A.: Defining and measuring shared situational awareness. Center for Naval Analyses Alexandria VA (2000) 32. Peddie, J.: Augmented Reality: Where We Will All Live. Springer International Publishing (2017) 33. Sexton, G.A.: Cockpit-crew systems design and integration. In: Wiener, E.L., Nagel, D.C. (eds.) Human Factors in Aviation, pp. 495–526. Academic Press, San Diego (1988) 34. Newman, R.L.: Head-Up Displays: Designing the Way Ahead. Vt.: Avebury Aviation Ashgate Pub. Co., Aldershot, Hants, Brookfield, England (1995) 35. GAO, F-35 Joint strike fighter: cost growth and schedule delays continue. United States Government Accountability Office (2022) 36. Factsheet, joint strike fighter helmet-mounted display system. Collins Aerospace (2022) 37. Audit of the Army’s integrated visual augmentation system (DODIG-2022-085) (2022) 38. Smith, B.: Technology and the US military (2018) 39. Work, R.: Establishment of an algorithmic warfare cross-functional team (project maven). Government Executive. https://www.govexec.com/media/gbc/docs/pdfs_edit/establ ishment_of_the_awcft_project_maven.pdf. Accessed 27 Sep 2017, 27, p. 2019 40. Gawlik-Kobyli´nska, M., et al.: Factors affecting the effectiveness of military training in virtual reality environment. In: Proceedings of the 2020 9th International Conference on Educational and Information Technology, pp. 144–148 (2020) 41. Peper, A.R.: Animal wearable head mountable display system (2018) 42. Sheridan, M., et al.: Investigating the effectiveness of virtual reality for cross-cultural competency training 2018. IEEE (2018) 43. Ahir, K., et al.: Application on virtual reality for enhanced education learning, military training and sports. Augmented Hum. Res. 5(1), 1–9 (2020) 44. Palomino, W., Barreto, R., Cerón, A.: Drug trafficking and terrorism as transnational crimes in Latin America. In: Maritime Security: Counter-Terrorism Lessons from Maritime Piracy and Narcotics Interdiction, pp. 29–46. IOS Press (2020)

Chapter 16

Comparative Evaluation of the Overall User Experience of Two MOOC Platforms: Coursera and OpenCampus Germania Rodríguez Morales , Ana Poma Gallegos , Pablo V. Torres-Carrión , and Samanta Cueva Carrión Abstract Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) have become a trend in online education, however, most of them do not meet users’ expectations and satisfaction. The objective of this research is to evaluate the overall UX of two MOOC platforms: Coursera and OpenCampus, from a technological point of view. A case study is conducted using the experimental method through the application of an online questionnaire applied to two independent samples of 10 users each, with the objective of comparing the user interface (UI) design of these platforms, as well as the UI and MOOC video content. The results indicate that the overall UX obtained a higher level of significance in Coursera than in OpenCampus in perceived usefulness, pleasant experience and accessibility. The present research provides a means to evaluate the overall UX of MOOC platforms with similar functions in order to discover areas for improvement and determine UX quality.

16.1 Introduction User experience (UX) from the simplest perspective is defined as how do people feel when they use a product or service? [1], which is fundamental to the success or failure of any product in the market [2]. On the other hand, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become one of the most popular trends in online education, G. R. Morales (B) · A. P. Gallegos · P. V. Torres-Carrión · S. C. Carrión Computer Science and Electronic Department, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Loja, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] A. P. Gallegos e-mail: [email protected] P. V. Torres-Carrión e-mail: [email protected] S. C. Carrión e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_16

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attracting millions of students every year, achieving great popularity among various universities [3], which offer MOOCs through prestigious platforms. However, not all students manage to complete MOOCs, in fact, the completion rate is usually below 10% [4–6]. The main factors that contribute to student attrition on MOOC platforms according to [7–11] are the quality of the content and the technical aspects of the platform. Regarding the second factor, [12–15] mention that the main issues contributing to attrition in MOOCs are poor usability and User Interface Design (UID). Poor design results in poor usability and poor usability can have a negative impact on UX and, moreover, on the achievement and completion of tasks within MOOCs [7]. Research on UX assessment in MOOC platforms is essential for successful online learning and teaching [11, 15]. This is why a case study is conducted using the experimental method to evaluate the overall UX of two specific MOOC platforms: Coursera and OpenCampus, by applying an online questionnaire, which is divided into two sections: the first section collects demographic data and previous experience in MOOC platforms; the second section assesses usability, satisfaction, usefulness, information quality and UI quality, visual aesthetics, pleasurable experience and accessibility, through the application of standardized questionnaires. The questionnaire is applied to two independent samples of 10 users each, where the MOOC platforms are evaluated in general, the UI of the MOOC platforms, as well as the UI and content of the MOOC videos, with the objective of comparing the designs of these platforms with similar functions, in order to discover areas of improvement and determine the quality of UX. Section 16.2 presents the literature review available to contextualize MOOC and UX. Section 16.3 indicates the methodology applied. Section 16.4 presents the case study to evaluate the overall UX of two MOOC platforms and the results obtained. Section 16.5 shows results analysis and discussion. Finally, Sect. 16.6 describes the conclusions and recommendations.

16.2 Literature Review 16.2.1 Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become one of the most popular trends in online education, attracting millions of students every year, achieving great popularity among various universities [3], which offer MOOCs through several prestigious platforms such as Coursera, Udacity, edX and among others. In the present research, Coursera and OpenCampus are selected to apply the overall UX assessment: Coursera is an educational platform that partners with top universities and organizations around the world to offer online courses for anyone to take free of charge [16]. OpenCampus is an educational platform that offers online courses, which are openly and freely available. It is used by the Universidad Técnica

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Particular de Loja to deliver MOOC courses to its students by granting university credits. In Fahmy et al. [17], an empirical study is conducted on the specific criteria that should be taken into account when designing and implementing MOOC to ensure the quality of MOOC design, based on the Technology-Enhanced Learning (TEL) approach in higher education. Fahmy et al. classify these criteria into two categories: pedagogical criteria (PC) and technological criteria (TC), distributed in categories and indicators MOOC. The most important UI characteristics are those related to videos, because videos are the backbone of MOOCs, which are inherently videobased learning environments [17]. In this sense, the UI technological criterion identified in [17] is mainly related to the UI of videos, however, for the purposes of this paper, the evaluation of UI at the MOOC platform level is also considered.

16.2.2 User Experience (UX) UX is a broader set of considerations than HCI, since in addition to aggregating and contextualizing human–computer interaction, it incorporates concerns of end users and organizations. Currently, there is no clear and precise definition of what UX is, in this sense, there are several important definitions proposed by some experts in the area such as [1, 18–21]. However, a more precise definition is provided by ISO 9241-11:2018 which defines UX as follows: “the UX refers to the user perceptions and responses that result from the use and/or anticipated use of a system, product or service” [22]. On the other hand, there are several UX models that have been developed to describe the different categories and factors that make up the UX, among which the following stand out [19, 21–23]. The present research evaluates the system’s own UX factors, which refer to users’ perceptions and responses with respect to the system’s properties [21, 22] and include: usability, satisfaction, usefulness, information quality, UI quality, aesthetics, pleasant experience and accessibility. Overall UX is usually evaluated after participants complete all interactions with the platform, with the goal of comparing different platform designs with similar functions [24]. According to the literature review, there are certain UX evaluation approaches (methods, techniques and tools) that evaluate the overall UX in MOOC platforms. Regarding the methods, the experimental method where hypotheses are formulated according to the user behavior to be evaluated [25] is applied in [26] to evaluate the overall UX after participants completed all tasks. With respect to techniques, in [27], the item of the UX honeycomb questionnaire is applied [23] which corresponds to accessibility, in which the UI of the MOOC platform (TC1) as well as the UI and content of the MOOC video (TC2) is evaluated. Regarding the tools, there are standardized questionnaires that evaluate UX and usability in MOOC platforms, and it was found that the System Usability Scale (SUS) questionnaire [28] is applied more frequently [15, 29, 30]; on the other hand, the Computer System Usability

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Questionnaire (CSUQ) [31] is applied in [26], which uses CSUQ to measure general UX usability; however, SUS and CSUQ measure the same thing, that is, perceived usability, but CSUQ is a multidimensional instrument that also measures satisfaction, usefulness, information quality and UI quality, for this reason, CSUQ is selected to be applied in the present research, which evaluates both MOOC platforms in general, as well as their UI (TC1). Likewise, [26] evaluates the visual aesthetics and pleasurable experience of the UI of MOOC platforms (TC1) as part of the overall UX assessment, applying the Visual Aesthetics of Website Inventory (VisAWI) and Pleasure questionnaires, respectively. Both VisAWI and Pleasure are measured after participants complete all tasks. For the purposes of this research, the Visual Aesthetics of Website Inventory-Short (VisAWI-S) questionnaire is applied [32] to reduce evaluation time.

16.3 Methodology The experimental method is applied, in which the independent variable is the MOOC platforms to be evaluated at two levels: Coursera and OpenCampus, while the dependent variable is the general UX. To carry out the overall UX evaluation process, an online questionnaire is applied as an evaluation instrument, developed in Microsoft Forms, which consists of a 5-point Likert scale in all its items. The questionnaire is divided into two parts. The first part consists of obtaining demographic data of the participants based on the pre-test questionnaire applied in [29], as well as previous experience with MOOC platforms based on interview questions applied in [26]. The second part consists of 4 sections as follows: Evaluation of usability, satisfaction, usefulness, information quality and UI quality, applying for this purpose the CSUQ questionnaire with 19 items, which obtained a high level of reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.92). Evaluation of the visual aesthetics of the MOOC platform UI, applying for this purpose VisAWI-S with 4 items, which obtained a high level of reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.87). Evaluation of the pleasurable experience of the MOOC platform UI, applying the Pleasure questionnaire with 3 items, which obtained a good level of reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.78). Evaluation of the accessibility of the MOOC platform UI, as well as MOOC video UI and content, by applying the UX honeycomb questionnaire items described above, which obtained a high level of reliability (Cronbach’s α = 0.87). Cronbach’s α was calculated using JASP Team (2021) software version 0.15. The evaluation instrument was sent to a total of 60 participants following the snowball sampling technique to generate a heterogeneous sample, which included university students and professors, as well as professionals in different areas, who had to have participated in at least one MOOC in the past, regardless of whether they had completed the course or not, they were currently active users. On the other hand, according to the time, users have been participating in MOOCs, novice users (from

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0 to 3 months), intermediate users (from 3 to 12 months) and expert users (more than a year of experience in MOOCs) were considered according to [33]. The hypotheses are established for each item of the evaluation instrument, which corresponds to 31 hypotheses. According to the researcher’s hypotheses, the level of significance should be higher in Coursera than in OpenCampus, otherwise, the hypotheses will be null, which suggest that there is no different level of significance between the two MOOC platforms analyzed.

16.4 Case Study In this section, a case study is developed to evaluate the overall UX of Coursera and OpenCampus, specifically the overall UI, as well as the UI and MOOC video content of those platforms, with the objective of comparing the designs of such platforms with similar functions, with the aim of discovering areas of improvement and determining the quality of UX. For this purpose, the following technological criteria and MOOC indicators are applied: TC1: MOOC platform UI; TC2: UI and MOOC video content; I2.1: Control of MOOC video features; I2.2: provide transcription of the video lecture; I2.3: clear sound (instructor’s voice). The system-specific UX factors evaluated correspond to: usability, satisfaction, usefulness, information quality, UI quality, aesthetics, pleasant experience and accessibility. The UX evaluation tools applied correspond to the following standardized questionnaires: CSUQ, VisAWI-S, Pleasure and the UX honeycomb questionnaire. According to the first section of the questionnaire, which corresponds to demographic data and previous experience, the following results were obtained. Of the total of 60 participants who were sent the questionnaire, a total of 42 participants responded to the questionnaire, of which 10 indicated that they had used Coursera and 16 indicated that they had used OpenCampus, the remaining participants indicated that they had not used any MOOC platform. Therefore, to balance the sample, we took the 10 participants from Coursera and randomly selected 10 participants from OpenCampus, leaving a final sample of 20 participants. The age range comprised between 26 and 40 years old; gender: 9 women and 11 men; educational level; level of MOOC experience: 1 participant is a novice user, 13 participants are intermediate users and 6 participants are expert users. Regarding the second part of the applied questionnaire, the results of the mean, standard deviation and standard error of both groups were calculated using the JASP software.

16.5 Analysis of Results and Discussion To determine the level of significance of each item of the general UX assessment instrument, in order to confirm or refute the established hypotheses, the following procedure is carried out: (1) Set the level of significance at 0.05 (5% error). (2)

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Choice of the statistical test: the type of study is cross sectional of two independent samples, nonparametric tests are performed using Mann–Whitney U because the study variable is ordinal, whose statistical objective is to make a comparison. (3) Estimation of asymptotic bilateral significance (p-value). (4) Decision making: if p > 0.05, the null hypothesis is accepted; if p < 0.05, the researcher’s hypothesis is accepted. Table 16.1 gives the results obtained. According to the results obtained, it can be determined that the following hypotheses obtained a level of significance below 0.05, that is, that there are significant differences between Coursera and OpenCampus. For H1 with p = 0.043, that is, we accept H1 (Fig. 16.1). It is suggested that this is due to the fact that in OpenCampus, there are icons and buttons that are not enabled. For H6 with p = 0.024, that is, we accept H6 (Fig. 16.2). It is suggested that this is due to the fact that in Coursera, everything is in one place. For H24 with p = 0.026 and H26 with p = 0.006, that is, we accept H24 (Fig. 16.3) and H26 (Fig. 16.4). It is concluded that the enjoyable experience was higher in Coursera than in OpenCampus. Finally, for H28 with p = 0.049, that is, we accept H28 (Fig. 16.5). It is suggested that this is due to the fact that in OpenCampus, a message repeatedly appears indicating that the platform is over requested due to thousands of connection requests, which does not allow the user to navigate the site normally. Therefore, it is concluded that the overall UX is higher in Coursera than in OpenCampus in hypotheses H1, H6, H24, H26 and H28; while for the rest of the hypotheses where the value of p > 0.05, the null hypotheses are accepted, which suggest that there is no different level of significance between the two MOOC platforms analyzed.

16.6 Conclusions and Recommendations Through the present research, it was possible to evaluate user perceptions of MOOC platform properties (technological criteria and MOOC indicators) by applying evaluation approaches most frequently applied in the literature to assess certain system-specific UX factors. By assessing the overall UX, it was possible to evaluate the UID of two MOOC platforms, discover areas for improvement and determine the UX quality. The overall UX obtained a higher level of significance in Coursera than in OpenCampus in perceived usefulness, pleasant experience and accessibility, while for the rest of the hypotheses, the null hypotheses are accepted, which suggest that there is no different level of significance between the two MOOC platforms analyzed. It is recommended that OpenCampus providers review the findings found in the present research so that they can make improvements, according to the hypotheses in which Coursera obtained a higher level of significance with respect to OpenCampus.

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Table 16.1 Nonparametric statistical test of two independent samples by Mann–Whitney U Hypo-thesis

Evaluation instrument items

W

p-value

There is a significant difference?

Satisfaction Utility H1

1. Overall, I am satisfied with 74.000 how easy it is to use this MOOC platform

0.043

Yes

H2

2. It is easy to use this MOOC platform

70.500

0.074

No

H3

3. I can complete my work effectively using this MOOC platform

63.000

0.213

No

H4

4. I can complete my work quickly using this MOOC platform

65.500

0.218

No

H5

5. I can complete my work efficiently using this MOOC platform

58.500

0.492

No

H6

6. I feel comfortable using this MOOC platform

73.000

0.024

Yes

H7

7. It was easy to learn how to use this MOOC platform

65.500

0.228

No

H8

8. I think I became productive very quickly using this MOOC platform

49.000

0.966

No

H9

9. The MOOC platform displays 53.500 error messages that clearly tell me how to troubleshoot problems

0.806

No

H10

10. Whenever I make a mistake while using the MOOC platform, I recover easily and quickly

56.000

0.649

No

H11

11. The information (such as 52.500 online help, on-screen messages and other documentation) provided with this MOOC platform is clear

0.864

No

H12

12. It is easy to find the information I need

NaN a

H13

13. The information provided with the MOOC platform is easy to understand

39.500

Quality of information

No 0.405

No

(continued)

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Table 16.1 (continued) Hypo-thesis

Evaluation instrument items

W

p-value

There is a significant difference?

H14

14. The information is effective in helping me complete my work

54.000

0.727

No

H15

15. The organization of the information on the MOOC platform screens is clear

54.000

0.726

No

H16

16. The interface of this MOOC 49.000 platform is pleasant

0.963

No

H17

17. I like using the interface of this MOOC platform

58.000

0.482

No

H18

18. This MOOC platform has all 51.500 the features and capabilities that I expect it to have

0.926

No

H19

19. Overall, I am satisfied with this MOOC platform

50.000

1.000

No

UI quality

Aesthetics H20

1. Everything goes together in this user interface

52.000

0.900

No

H21

2. The design is pleasantly varied

67.000

0.167

No

H22

3. The color composition is attractive

68.000

0.133

No

H23

4. The design looks professional 61.000

0.357

No

H24

1. The MOOC platform is attractive

77.000

0.026

Yes

H25

2. The MOOC platform is entertaining

65.000

0.204

No

H26

3. The MOOC platform is enjoyable

82.500

0.006

Yes

H27

1. I do not feel nauseous when looking at the screen

56.000

0.662

No

H28

2. I can access the MOOC 72.000 platform with different Internet network connections (Wi-Fi and 3G/4G)

0.049

Yes

H29

3. I can hear the sound (instructor’s voice)

64.000

0.258

No

H30

4. I can read the subtitles on the videos

61.500

0.348

No

Pleasant experience

Accessibility

(continued)

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Table 16.1 (continued) Hypo-thesis

Evaluation instrument items

W

p-value

There is a significant difference?

H31

5. I can adjust the video player functions (subtitles, volume, video quality, video speed) to suit my preferences

67.000

0.159

No

Note a The variance in information quality question 12 is equal to 0 after clustering on MOOC platforms

Fig. 16.1 Satisfaction with respect to the ease of using the platform has a higher level of significance in Coursera than in OpenCampus

Fig. 16.2 Feeling of comfort using the platform has a higher significance level in Coursera than in OpenCampus

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Fig. 16.3 Perception of the platform as attractive has a higher significance level in Coursera than in OpenCampus

Fig. 16.4 Perception of the platform as entertaining has a higher significance level in Coursera than in OpenCampus

Fig. 16.5 Access to the platform with different Internet network connections (Wi-Fi and 3G/4G) has a higher significance level in Coursera than in OpenCampus

References 1. Soegaard, M.: The Basics of User Experience Design: A UX Design Book. Interaction Design Foundation (2002) 2. Morville, P.: The 7 Factors that Influence User Experience. Interaction Design Foundation (2018). https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/article/the-7-factors-that-influence-userexperience

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Chapter 17

Organisational Attraction in the Voluntary Military Recruitment in the Portuguese Armed Forces José Peres de Almeida

and José Paulo Marques dos Santos

Abstract With the implementation of the military service based on voluntary service, the Portuguese Armed Forces have been facing difficulties in attracting potential candidates to serve in the voluntary and contract regimes and the consequent problem of a workforce shortage. This study aims to identify the factors that the organisation of military recruitment must address to potentiate the Armed Forces’ attraction. Based on a thematic analysis of the Portuguese Armed Forces, factors that enhance attraction were identified through a qualitative approach. Therefore, it is concluded that those responsible for recruitment should take into consideration the external context; develop knowledge regarding potential candidates for the voluntary and contract regimes; implement changes in the role to be played by the Armed Forces; adapt the current model of military recruitment; implement targeted recruitment strategies; implement an adequate system of incentives for voluntary and contract military service; optimise the activities related to the National Defence Day; improve communication in the context of recruitment; develop and maintain the attractiveness of the Armed Forces. Besides the contributions to a better knowledge of the existing problem and the adaptation of the military recruitment structure to the current social reality and the new generations, the results conclude that the Armed Forces must invest in their attractiveness to potentiate organisational attraction.

17.1 Introduction This study arises from the problems that have emerged in the last 20 years in Portugal associated with the shortage of elements for the Armed Forces from voluntary military recruitment, mainly enlisted personnel. With the publication of the current Military Service Law in 1999, military service in Portugal is no longer compulsory. In J. P. de Almeida · J. P. Marques dos Santos Universidade Europeia, Lisbon, Portugal J. P. Marques dos Santos (B) University of Maia, Maia, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_17

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2004, the full volunteering of military service was achieved through the Voluntary Regime (VR)1 and the Contract Regime (CR).2 From this date onwards, the Armed Forces assumed the capacity to attract their own human resources, competing directly in the labour market with other employers. Official figures show that the number of personnel of the Portuguese Armed Forces in VR/CR has been decreasing. It is also verified that the existing staff falls short of the authorised staff and the real needs of the Armed Forces. On the other hand, surveys carried out among young people participating in the National Defence Day (NDD) have shown that many young people admit their interest in joining the VR/CR. In this context, it may be concluded that there is no aprioristic rejection of young people concerning the Armed Forces [13]. On the contrary, it is verified that there is considerable recruitment potential. Unfortunately, the number of actual entries has not matched into the VR/CR to fill the vacancies made available by the Armed Forces. The studies carried out in this area contribute to exploring and reflecting on the issue in question. However, most of them are based on partial explorations and a more inclusive study that considers the problem of recruitment as a whole is deemed relevant. In this context, the study aims to identify the factors that the organisation of military recruitment must address to potentiate the Armed Forces’ attraction. Ultimately, it is considered that this theme is of general interest, as National Defence is a right and a fundamental duty of all. Therefore, it is hoped that it contributes to a better knowledge of the existing problem and presents contributions that enable reflection on the current structure of military recruitment in Portugal, providing clues for its restructuring and adaptation to the current social reality and new generations. After a brief theoretical and conceptual approach to recruitment, the method followed is described and the results obtained are presented. Finally, conclusions, limitations, and clues for the development of future research are presented.

17.2 Theoretical and Conceptual Approach 17.2.1 Recruitment Today, it is commonly accepted that people are a valuable asset, constitute a competitive advantage, and their management assumes a strategic role for organisations. Recruitment, therefore, plays a vital role in building and maintaining organisational success and is not seen as just another component of human resource management 1

The Voluntary Regime (VR) is based on voluntary membership of the Portuguese Armed Forces for a period of 12 months, including military training. After the end of their service in VR, citizens may request to remain in the effective service under a Contract Regime. 2 The Contract Regime (CR) is based on voluntary membership of the Portuguese Armed Forces for a minimum duration of two years and a maximum duration of six years.

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but rather as a strategic tool with wide-ranging implications for organisations [28]. For Connerley [9], recruitment serves the vital function of bringing to an organisation the talent needed to be competitive, arguably emerging as the human resource function most critical to organisational survival and success. Cable and Yu [8] reinforce these ideas by stating that recruitment has evolved from its relatively ignored status to a strategic tool that affects competitive advantage. For Duarte et al. [14], “the ability to attract talented employees is surely a valuable path towards productivity, effectiveness, and organisational goals” (p. 242). Moreover, the pressure for effectiveness in attracting candidates has gained importance with the issue of the “war for talent”, following the lack of labour in several markets and the difficulties encountered when facing specific imbalances in labour markets. “Such imbalances cause organisations to run into serious difficulties attracting the desired applicants, usually struggling to attract the most talented workers in the employment market” [14] (p. 242). Barber [2] refers that “recruitment includes those practices and activities carried on by the organisation with the primary purpose of identifying and attracting potential employees” (p. 5). Applicants go through three stages of the recruitment process: generating applicants, maintaining applicant status, and influencing job choice decisions [2]. According to Taylor and Collins [27], “recruitment includes the set of activities undertaken by the organisation to identify a desirable group of applicants, attract them into its employee ranks, and retain them at least for the short term”. For Saks [22], “recruitment involves actions and activities taken by an organisation to identify and attract individuals to the organisation who have the capabilities to help the organisation realise its strategic objectives” (p. 48). These activities should generate a “pool” of desirable candidates, increase their interest and attraction to the organisation as an employer, and increase the likelihood that they will accept a job offer. Note that this definition links recruitment to strategy, making it clear that recruitment can, and should, play an important role in helping the organisation achieve its strategic objectives and highlighting the strategic importance of the recruitment function [22]. For Ployhart [20], most recruitment definitions emphasise the organisation’s collective efforts to identify, attract, and influence the employment choices of competent candidates. Breaugh [7] defined external recruitment as encompassing an employer’s actions that are intended to: (a) bring a job opening to the attention of potential job candidates who do not currently work for the organisation, (b) influence whether these individuals apply for the opening, (c) affect whether they maintain interest in the position until a job offer is extended, and (d) influence whether a job offer is accepted (pp. 103–104).

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17.2.2 Military Recruitment The Military Service Law [17] defines military recruitment as “the set of operations necessary to obtain human resources for entry into the Armed Forces”3 (p. 6542). The normal recruitment modality aims at ‘the admission of citizens with a minimum age of 18 years old, who propose to fulfil, voluntarily, effective military service in the Armed Forces” (p. 6543). The service may occur under VR, with a duration of 12 months, and in CR, with a minimum of two years and a maximum of six years. The special conditions for admission to the VR/CR include, for enlisted personnel, maximum age of 24 years and a minimum of nine years of education. An incentive scheme was foreseen to encourage the provision of effective service under contract and voluntary regimes and, at the end of the service provision, the reintegration of citizens into civil life. This system provides incentives to obtain academic qualifications, support for professional training and certification, financial and material compensation, support for insertion or reinsertion in the labour market and social support. This system was materialised through the Regulation on Incentives for the Provision of Military Service in the Contract and Voluntary Regimes and has been the object of subsequent alterations [11]. The Military Service Law instituted the NDD, “which aims to raise awareness among young people on the theme of national defence and promote the role of the Armed Forces, which is responsible for the military defence of the Republic” (p. 6542). Attendance at the NDD “constitutes a duty for all citizens and may occur from the first day of the year when they reach the age of 18 years” [17] (p. 6542). Awareness-raising involves various activities, including, among others, information about the forms of service, training actions, and possibilities that are available to citizens during and after their military service. Although the NDD is not a specific recruitment activity, the following must be taken into consideration: it is a very relevant source of information about young Portuguese people, who, because they are over 18 years of age, are potential candidates for joining the Armed Forces; it is an excellent opportunity to communicate, identify, and attract young people to the Armed Forces; it is an opportunity to improve the image and reputation of the Armed Forces and to increase their attractiveness. In 2010, this duty was also extended to young women born from 1992 onwards, thus universalising military duties.

3

Military recruitment comprises three modalities: Normal recruitment—for the provision of effective service on a voluntary and contract basis. Special recruitment—for the provision of effective voluntary service in the permanent staff. Exceptional recruitment—for the provision of effective service resulting from convocation or mobilisation. In the scope of this study, only the normal recruitment modality is addressed.

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17.2.3 Organisational Attraction Attraction is part of recruitment in that, according to various definitions, recruitment involves actions and activities aimed at identifying and attracting individuals to an organisation. For Gomes and Neves [16], after identifying hiring needs and developing job requirements and profiles, organisations make efforts to attract candidates. Organisational attraction refers to the way employers strategically exploit their strengths to attract candidates and gather a group of potential employees with profiles that match the organisations’ requirements. The authors conclude that one of the main results of the attraction stage of a recruitment process is to generate intentions in potential candidates to apply for a job vacancy. As such, it is essential to understand the factors that lead to this purpose. Duarte et al. [14] highlight the relevance of attraction, mentioning that it is commonplace for recruiters to state that “applicant attraction is business” for organisations (p. 242). In line with Barber [2], Duarte et al. [14] reinforce that attraction is the specific phase of recruitment that occurs when organisations make strong efforts, through decisions and actions, to attract potential candidates well matched to a required profile, to a job vacancy. Regardless of the theoretical perspectives and empirical approaches followed, Duarte et al. [14] warn that the organisation’s attractiveness seems to be a strong indicator that affects attraction effectiveness. For Acikgoz [1], attraction is framed in the attraction-selection-attrition (ASA) process in the context of employee recruitment and job search. Attraction is seen as a process of inquiry and communication between organisations and individuals. Both organisations and individuals search for and communicate with one another, and it is through this process that the initial attraction occurs. The search for desirable organisations or candidates in the context of employee recruitment and job search can also be seen as a communication process since both parties communicate with one another through recruitment sources. [1] (p. 4)

In summary, in the scope of this study, we understand attraction as a phase of the recruitment process that involves decisions and actions developed by organisations to attract potential candidates for a job vacancy.

17.3 Method A qualitative approach was adopted to achieve the study’s objective. It is based on a documental meta-analysis relying on recent studies conducted within the scope of the Portuguese Armed Forces. The search conducted among the various existing studies resulted in the selection of 14 studies identified in Table 17.1. This choice was based on criteria related to the timeliness and relevance of the work and identification with the theme under investigation while seeking diversity and comprehensiveness to cover various areas related to military recruitment in the Portuguese Armed Forces. The qualitative approach is based on Thematic Analysis

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Table 17.1 Studies carried out within the Portuguese Armed Forces Authors

Year

Santos and Coelho

2018 Evolution of the model of military service in the Portuguese Armed Forces in Contract Regime. Critical analysis and reflections

Title (in English)

References

Bragança and Santos

2018 Recruitment challenges for the future concerning [4] citizens fulfilling military service in the voluntary and contract regimes in the Portuguese Armed Forces

Branco and Santos

2018 Predisposition to join the Armed Forces: a study on targeted recruitment actions

[5]

Cunha e Costa

2018 The incentive framework for military service as a stimulus for recruitment and retention

[10]

Saraiva

2018 How do the Portuguese Armed Forces position in [26] the face of job expectations and preferences of the North Region of Portugal millennials?

Rijo and Honorato

2018 Recruitment into the Armed Forces for the contract regime. The role of social media

[21]

Borges and Silveira

2018 Recruitment models evolution in military organisations. The case of the Portuguese Armed Forces

[3]

Fernandes and Santos

2018 Volunteers join in the Portuguese Armed Forces: a [15] spatial study on the case of the air force

Santos and Coelho

2019 The position of the Portuguese Armed Forces in the labour market in relation to the military service model under contract

[18]

[24]

Morgado and Ranhola 2019 The recruitment and selection of human resources: [18] criteria and trends in actual organisations Pereira and Serra

2019 Recruitment in the Armed Forces and Security Forces

[19]

Dias

2020 Communication strategies for the female target

[12]

Santos and Coelho

2020 Career anchors for the Portuguese army’s volunteers and contract personnel: using the career orientations inventory

[25]

DGRDN

2020 Youngsters and the Armed Forces. (Report of the 15th edition of the NDD)

[13]

regarding the method proposed by Braun and Clarke [6]. Thematic Analysis is a method for identifying, analysing, and reporting patterns (themes) within data. It minimally organises and describes your data set in (rich) detail. The analytic process encompasses six phases: (1) familiarising yourself with your data; (2) generating initial codes; (3) searching for themes; (4) reviewing themes; (5) defining and naming themes; (6) producing the report.

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17.4 Results Figure 17.1 depicts the thematic map resulting from the analysis of the studies, where the themes that serve as a basis for systematising the theory are highlighted. Military recruitment, and the attraction associated with it, emerges naturally as the central theme, with nine other themes identified. We summarise the following elements and actions to develop as factors related to the attraction of the Armed Forces: take into consideration the external context; develop knowledge regarding potential candidates for VR/CR; implement changes in the role to be played by the Armed Forces; adapt the current recruitment model; implement targeted recruitment strategies; implement an appropriate incentive scheme for military service in VR/CR; to potentiate the activities related to the NDD; improve communication in the context of recruitment; develop and maintain the attractiveness of the Armed Forces. According to the method followed, the synthesis of the thematic analysis (i.e. step 6, producing the report) also integrates evidence and data from the literature. In this way, the intention is to deepen the meanings and obtain more consolidated results, which allow for more significant support and consistency of the conclusions and the resulting theory. The nine factors resulting from the analysis and a summary description of each are presented in Table 17.2. In addition to the contributions, this information allows those responsible for recruitment to promote a framework of actions to be developed, enhancing attraction as part of normal recruitment. Analysing these nine factors and their associated information, one may conclude that they require differentiated obligations and interventions by those who are responsible for military recruitment. Accordingly, three levels of commitment are identified, each one requiring different interventions and practices as: the need for knowledge and study, the responsibility for development and execution, and the participation or cooperation to develop jointly with other entities. At the first level, the need for knowledge regarding the external context and potential candidates is identified. The study and understanding of these factors will allow the development of the best ways to do organisational attraction. Those responsible for military recruitment are not accountable for problems resulting from demographic evolution, economic situation, education, or technological development. However, these aspects implicate recruitment, particularly activities related to attraction, and must be considered and studied. The study and the understanding of potential candidates result from the needs inherent to recruitment, how to identify and attract, and the adequacy of the ways to proceed with attraction. At the second level of intervention, those responsible for recruitment must be committed to execute or develop actions that lead to the improvement of attraction results, such as: take the initiative for the improvement of communication as a decisive factor for promotion and attraction; implement specific strategies related to targeted recruitment; increase the crucial role that the Armed Forces must play as a recruiting entity, materialised in the implementation of strategies and improvement of processes. The attractiveness of the Armed Forces is a relevant factor that assumes

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Fig. 17.1 Thematic map

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exceptional importance for the success of recruitment and the retention of military personnel. In this sense, the development and maintenance of attractiveness and the implementation of concrete actions regarding the organisational component must be a constant concern for the Armed Forces and those responsible for recruitment. At the third level, some aspects concerning the NDD, the implementation of incentives, and the recruitment model are beyond the competencies of those responsible for recruitment and the Armed Forces themselves. However, all of them should not refrain from participating, proposing and cooperating, namely with the Ministry of National Defence, to find solutions that improve the attraction of the Armed Forces. Complementarily, some factors may require interventions at more than one level of responsibility. For example, some changes to the recruitment model can be introduced Table 17.2 Summary of attraction enhancing factors Factors

Summary description

External context

Demography: there is a declining ageing population, a shrinking working population and, therefore, a shrinking recruitment base; in short, demography has an unfavourable impact on recruitment, and the Armed Forces must take measures to compensate for this negative factor in terms of attraction Economic situation: high rates of youth unemployment may be favourable to joining the Armed Forces; a large part of the inactive population is made up of students who intend to continue their studies; the Armed Forces compete with the external market; in summary, the economic situation may give rise to fluctuations in the intentions to join the Armed Forces; it is expected that the predisposition to join is in counter-cycle concerning the economic cycles and the civilian labour market Education: there is an increase in the level of education; the intention of young people to enter the Armed Forces decreases as their level of education increases; moreover, young people intend to continue their studies, which in most situations overlaps the entry period (18–24 years of age); in summary, the current panorama of education in Portugal is not favourable to entry into the VR/CR, constituting another adverse factor to attraction and recruitment New trends: technological evolution; social networks; digital recruitment and selection (R&S); gamification; artificial intelligence; in summary, the growing technological development combined with the entry of new generations into the labour market introduces recent trends and forces us to rethink the way we deal with human resources, and in particular with military recruitment and how to attract new generations

Potential candidates

The new generations are characterised by having grown up in the information and knowledge age and living in a digital and global world; in summary, the importance of knowing the potential candidates for entry into VR/CR stands out; besides knowing the possible characteristics or designation of the new generations, it is important to know the preferences, values, attitudes, motivations, and expectations of the individuals who at any given moment are able to be recruited

Portuguese Armed Forces Factors that justify the Armed Forces’ intervention in implementing strategies and improving processes to boost attraction are identified Implementation of strategies: strengthening the position in the labour market; organisational image; employer branding; organisational reputation Improvement of processes: valorisation of the military profession; promotion of military activity; social networks/internet; word of mouth; internships for young people; articulation between the branches and the Ministry of National Defence (continued)

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Table 17.2 (continued) Factors

Summary description

Recruitment model

The weaknesses identified with the recruitment structure, the conditions of application and entry to the VR/CR, and the particularities associated with these regimes should be the object of due reflection and possible changes Structures and operationalisation strategy: little flexibility and difficulties in adapting to change; recruitment activities are carried out autonomously in the branches of the Armed Forces; the need for articulation/harmonisation between branches/Ministry of National Defence regarding knowledge management, promotion, and communication; consider centralised versus decentralised model Application; maximum age for admission; education; classification and selection tests (CST) Specificities of VR/CR: nature of the contractual link; career anchors; retention, reinsertion, ex-military personnel

Targeted recruitment

Consider implementing specific recruitment strategies tailored to specific segments of the population/identification of target audiences to reach a larger number of potential candidates Given the identified potential, the Portuguese Armed Forces should consider women as a target public and develop targeted recruitment actions: consider the higher level of education; adapt communication/messages; enhance the intention to join by developing specific strategies and actions

Incentives scheme

The incentives for military service provision in VR/CR play a decisive role. Therefore, their proper implementation is essential if they are to become a real factor in encouraging entry and enhancing the attraction of the Armed Forces Besides simplifying the scheme and the importance of communication/dissemination, the following points are highlighted: remuneration, professional training and certification, and reinstatement in the labour market

National Defence Day

The NDD has very positive aspects on the relationship between young people, national defence, and the Armed Forces. Therefore, it should be optimised to improve the attraction/recruitment activities It is a relevant source of information on young Portuguese people, potential candidates for entry into the Armed Forces It constitutes an opportunity to: raise awareness of national defence, publicise, communicate, identify, attract, and improve the image, reputation, and attractiveness of the Armed Forces

Communication

The effectiveness of military recruitment is primarily determined by how the Armed Forces communicate with different audiences. Thus, the methods used by the Armed Forces to communicate and attract candidates must be carefully chosen and adapted according to the objectives and target audience to be reached A communication strategy must be developed, materialised in integrated and targeted plans, taking care of the joint harmonisation of the Armed Forces and the specificities of the branches Promotion should disseminate the job offer, encourage the use of new technologies, develop integrated advertising campaigns using the media with the highest audience among young people, explore the advantages of social networks, and carefully choose the platforms, messages, and contents Specific campaigns should be developed: in the area of citizenship and national defence; hold internships for young people and visits to Armed Forces units; strengthen the relationship with schools/institutions that deal with young people; run campaigns for other target audiences/local communities/families of potential candidates; participate in large-scale and high-profile events (continued)

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Table 17.2 (continued) Factors

Summary description

Attractiveness

It is important to remember that attractiveness does not depend only on the Armed Forces. Attractiveness is a subjective perception that can be influenced by cultural or demographic differences and vary according to gender, age, or education. However, being especially important in the attraction phase, attractiveness must be continuously developed and maintained, including retention, for the Armed Forces to remain a recognised employer, contributing to recruitment outcomes The importance of other factors for attractiveness is highlighted: communication; the incentive scheme; the NDD; the processes and strategy of the Armed Forces, including the recruitment model. Finally, the exceptional importance of the attractiveness of the Armed Forces to potentiate attraction and the result of recruitment is reinforced

by the Armed Forces, while others require legislative changes that go beyond their scope. Likewise, the need for knowledge and development of studies is transversal, involving several factors. Despite the limitations, it is considered that this qualitative approach adds contributions to research on voluntary military recruitment and those responsible for its implementation. Thus, factors were identified that should be taken into consideration by those responsible for military recruitment to potentiate organisational attraction within the scope of normal recruitment to the Armed Forces.

17.5 Conclusion The problem generated by implementing the voluntary peacetime military recruitment model, where the Armed Forces compete with other employers, has led to a workforce shortage. The difficulty in attracting potential candidates, and maintaining the workforce in the VR/CR, has been a problem and a significant challenge to the management of the Armed Forces. Nevertheless, the thematic analysis results allow us to conclude that it is possible to identify factors that should be taken into account by the military recruitment organisation to potentiate the attraction of the Armed Forces. The need for study and understanding regarding the external context and potential candidates for admission to VR/CR is identified, contributing to better adequacy of the ways of proceeding to the attraction. We identify factors in which those responsible for recruitment should develop actions that lead to the improvement of the results of attraction: take the initiative for the improvement of communication as a decisive factor for promotion and attraction; implement targeted recruitment to attract a more significant number of potential candidates; implement strategies and processes improvement within the Armed Forces, as a recruiting entity; develop and maintain concrete measures in the

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field of the attractiveness of the Armed Forces, given the relevance that this has for the success of recruitment and retention of the military. The adequacy of the current recruitment model, the implementation of an appropriate system of incentives for the provision of military service in VR/CR, and optimising the activities related to the NDD are factors that are not only within the scope of those responsible for recruitment and the Armed Forces. However, military recruiters must participate, propose, and cooperate with the Ministry of National Defence to implement measures to improve the attraction of the Armed Forces. It is essential to assume that this qualitative approach is not without limitations. They stem from the very nature of the analysis, the method used, the studies considered, and the restrictions on the time they report. In addition, given the defined objective, some topics were not developed in great depth so that they may be the subject of future research. Military recruitment is partly understood as a communication process between the Armed Forces and the target audiences. Its effectiveness derives from how the Armed Forces communicate and the recruitment sources used. Given the specificity and importance of the theme for attracting potential candidates and the evolution of communication systems, it is suggested that communication in military recruitment should be a theme to be developed in more depth and the object of research. One must take into account that the organisational attractiveness of the Armed Forces is of great importance both for the understanding of the attraction phase and the success of recruitment and also for the retention of military personnel. Thus, it is considered that the attractiveness of the Armed Forces should be the object of more comprehensive studies. It is important to investigate the evolution throughout the various stages of recruitment and the effects on retention after entering the VR/CR. The current recruitment model is characterised by differentiated and decentralised structures and procedures across the three branches of the Armed Forces. Although centralisation appears to be more rational and efficient, namely in terms of committed resources, there is no evidence that recruitment results may be better. Thus, it is considered pertinent to investigate which advantages and disadvantages might arise from implementing a joint or decentralised recruitment model in the three branches, namely regarding the effectiveness of attracting candidates and the final recruitment results. The organisational attraction of the Armed Forces is a challenge that must be potentiated to ensure the recruitment of personnel for military service in VR/CR. The appropriate responses are the responsibility of those responsible for military recruitment.

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Chapter 18

The Role of a Chatbot Personality in the Attitude of Consumers Towards a Banking Brand Natalia Palomino and Francisco Arbaiza

Abstract In the recent years, it has been seen that brands have opted to implement chatbots as part of their digital customer service channels, especially since they can be hosted on social networks such as Facebook Messenger and WhatsApp. Although the use of this has become widespread, users perceive them as inefficient and of little credibility. The design of the personality of a chatbot arises as an alternative for the brand to generate a more human interaction with the user and show its brand values to generate a positive experience. In addition, a projected growth of the business value of chatbots for brands of 3.9 trillion dollars is estimated by 2022. For this reason, knowing how brands can rely on the correct implementation of the personality of a chatbot creating a positive influence on its users is important in a growing industry. The present research seeks to know how the personality of the chatbot influences the formation of consumer attitudes towards a brand. This exploratory study used a qualitative methodology of phenomenological design with young adults from Lima. Subsequently, it was analysed through descriptive coding. It was found that the social dynamics, the social role and the physique of the chatbot are the aspects that influence the attitude towards the brand and generate a feeling of trust and closeness between the chatbot and the brand.

N. Palomino · F. Arbaiza (B) Publicidad de Facultad de Comunicaciones, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru e-mail: [email protected] N. Palomino e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_18

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18.1 Introduction There has been a greater demand from users to interact with brands. To meet their needs, organizations have opted for automatic channels that allow communication that occurs anywhere and at any time [14]. Chatbots, automated virtual assistants, have become a more relevant channel, as they are key in the digitization process of organizations to provide intelligent customer service that reduces brands’ operational effort [5]. In addition, chatbots create an instant conversational experience with the consumer, being an ally for companies that look for intensifying the emotions and experiences with consumers, increasing their participation and satisfaction through this channel that other channels can’t provide [10], Britt [2]. However, the recent studies have shown that most chatbots are poorly managed after implementation and, therefore, are seen as unintelligent and frustrating channels with which does not allow a conversational experience and much less solve the doubts or problems of the user. This generates great dissatisfaction among users and, as a result, the consumer’s attitude towards the brand can be affected, obtaining the opposite effect to the purpose for which many brands implement them. The attitude towards the brand can affect the intention to purchase the product or service (González, Orozco and Barrios, 2011). Despite the warnings and the negative influence on the attitude towards the brand that the poor implementation of a chatbot can generate, a business value growth derived from Artificial Intelligence is estimated projected of 3.9 trillion dollars by 2022 (Gartner, 2019). Titus [20] comments that when a brand achieves a suitable chatbot experience— making it easy to use, useful and fun—it has the power to drive brand preferences in a way that websites and mobile applications cannot build. Faced with this phenomenon, this research seeks to answer the question: PI: How does the chatbot personality influence the formation of consumer attitudes towards a brand?

Through this question, this qualitative and exploratory work seeks to identify the role played by the chatbot personality in the formation of consumer attitudes towards the brand. Therefore, the answer will be useful for marketing and communication professionals as it will allow them to implement chatbots that are aligned with the personality and values of their brands and thus increase the possibilities of generating positive experiences with consumers through this channel of communication. In addition, they will be able to improve the content strategy and better define the communication purpose of this channel.

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18.2 Theoretical Framework 18.2.1 The Contribution of Chatbot Personalization in Marketing This research assumes the concept of chatbot as that automated virtual assistant that offers a conversational experience and uses Artificial Intelligence to process natural language and simulate a conversation with real people [3]. Although chatbots were originally designed to be conversational agents, today their functions have been expanded thanks to their commercial value. Trends show an increase in the use of chatbots as virtual assistants that help users to perform different tasks [13]. Under this framework, the purpose of a chatbot is to assist the user, through a conversational experience, to fulfil its requirement [16]. From a business point of view, this automation represents a solution to solve operational and repetitive processes and can also provide other equally attractive benefits for brands, such as the possibility of having customer service 24 h a day, reducing the cost of the service by up to 90%—depending on the functions of the chatbot—and show users a digital and modern brand image [5]. For this reason, they are frequently used as a channel for customer service since they can save up to 30% in the cost of customer service, can help companies speed up response times and respond up to 80% of routine questions. In this way, chatbots increase the chances of generating sales. Chatbots personality is very similar to that proposed in human interaction, since it includes age, gender, linguistic style, attitude, level of knowledge and experience [18]. The existence of a personality helps them to generate consistent responses [21] and create an illusion of intelligence [14]. As chatbots are systems implemented through predefined conversation flows, personality can help guiding the chatbot design process and write the conversation flow with users and the brand image to convey (Monday, 2018).

18.3 Methodology and Procedures 18.3.1 Study Design To analyse the role of the chatbot’s personality in the attitude towards brands, an investigation with a qualitative approach was carried out. This is useful to interpret and evaluate the experiences and opinions of the participants, in this case, the perception of chatbots and the attitudes they generate in the interviewees after interaction with the chatbot [7]. This study followed a phenomenological design since it is based on the subjective perspective and perception, which will be taken as “facts” for the social actors [4].

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18.3.2 Sample The selection of participants was done through an intentional sampling. This allows the researcher to select characteristic cases from a population by limiting the sample to only these cases (Otzen and Manterola, 2017). In this study, the participants were 15 men and women between the ages of 24 and 30 who have completed university studies and are from Central Lima, according to the classification of the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics [8]. This sample was selected because: (i) having had university studies, it was ensured that they have adequate capacity to describe and define their experiences and preferences when using the chatbot. (ii) When considering the previously mentioned age range, it was reinforced that they are digital natives who know and use the platform selected for the study, Facebook Messenger, and it was also ensured that they have had previous contact with chatbots and feel willing to use them in the customer service sector.

18.3.3 Data Collection and Procedures The data collection of this research was done through in-depth interviews. This is based on the follow-up of a script in which all the topics that are to be addressed throughout the meetings and are reflected in order to distinguish the topics by importance and avoid loss and dispersion on the part of the interviewee. To answer the research question, it was taken into account the model proposed by [8] to identify which social signals of the chatbot personality influences the brand attitude. This study postulates that the following complete social signals can be applied in chatbots and transmit personality shown in Table 18.1. Following the taxonomy of social signals suggested by Fogg, a semi-structured question guide was developed to generate the in-depth interviews as can be seen in Table 18.2. Due to the fact that interpersonal communication established between the researcher and the study subject allows obtaining verbal answers to the questions posed about the proposed problem. As a case study, the chatbot Clara BCP, virtual assistant of BCP, was selected. The BCP is a brand that belongs to the Banking category. As a background, it is highlighted that the Banking sector is the sector with the most claims in Peru (Indecopi, Table 18.1 Taxonomy of social signals for conversational agents suggested by [8] Physical

Psychological

Language

Social dynamics

Role

Face Movement Gender

Preference Humour Feelings Empathy

Interactive use of language Recognition of language

Turns (chronicle) Cooperation Praise Answer to questions Reciprocity

Profession Role during the interaction

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Table 18.2 Topics and questions of the in-depth interview guide based on the personality of a chatbot exposed by [8] Category

Semi-structured questions

Perception about the quality of customer service

1. What is your perception of the quality of the BCP customer service? 2. What is the customer service channel through which you prefer to communicate? 3. Have you used BCP digital service channels? Which one do you prefer?

“Physical appearance” of Clara

5. What do you think of Clara’s characterization? 6. What is your opinion regarding the gender that Clara has been awarded? 7. What feeling does Clara’s face convey to you? 8. Do you consider Clara’s appearance and how she looks like is important?

Psychological aspect of Clara

9. Did you perceive any state of mind from Clara? 10. Do you think Clara is empathetic with your needs/queries? 11. If Clara were a real person, how do you think she would be?

Use of language

12. Do you think Clara uses language appropriately? 13. Do you think Clara knows how to interact correctly? (Do you think that Clara speaks as a person would?) 14. Does Clara interpret your needs appropriately? 15. What do you think of Clara using emojis?

Social dynamics of Clara

16. Was it easy to establish a fluid dialogue with Clara? (Did you easily understand the instructions Clara gave you?) 17. Did talking with Clara encourage you to ask her again about some questions that you would not normally ask an automated system? 18. Have you used a chatbot before? How would you rate Clara’s performance if you had to compare it to those chatbots?

Social role

19. Did Clara help you find the answers or solutions you were looking for? Do you think Clara could help you solve future doubts and queries? 20. Do you think you could have solved your question or found a solution to a problem in the same way with some other automated digital channel? (continued)

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Table 18.2 (continued) Category

Semi-structured questions

Attitude towards the brand

21. After interacting with Clara, did your opinion of the quality of customer service at BCP change? 22. After having interacted with Clara, would you recommend that your acquaintances use the chatbot?

2019) and, therefore, requires that its customer service should be efficient, agile and effective. In turn, the BCP is the financial entity with the most claims filed (Indecopi, 2019). As can be seen in Table 18.1, the BCP had already experimented with a chatbot in a previous project, called Chatbot Arturito BCP, which was active from 2016 to May 2020 to make way for Clara BCP. To ensure that the selected case has a personality developed according to the brand identity, the personality frame of reference proposed by [11] was used, which has four components: (i) The mission of the brand and its values, (ii) A deep understanding of its users and their needs, (iii) Defining the role that the chatbot will have, (iv) Personality according to the brand.

18.4 Results With the information gathered from the interviews, the descriptive data was coded, and 4 categories emerged after the analysis. The purpose was to identify the role played by the chatbot personality in the formation of consumer attitudes towards the brand.

18.4.1 Satisfaction Using Chatbot as Client Service Channel Interviewees provided a divided response regarding the preference between using digital and remote channels, however, due to the pandemic COVID-19, they have been encouraged to explore the brand’s digital channels. Regarding the chatbot, the vast majority of those interviewed had a negative perception of its usefulness in answering customer inquiries compared to other digital channels such as Internet Banking. However, the positive perception they had about the quality of customer service at BCP encouraged them to try Clara BCP’s chatbot, especially when the other channels were not available. The general reaction after using Clara BCP is pleasantly surprised by the speed it offers, the level of response and the friendly conversation style it has. For example, one of the participants expresses it like this:

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I have always felt that chatbots are going to give me random answers that don’t match my questions and they are not going to help me. On the other hand, Clara surprised me and I found it spectacular (...) now I know that I can resort to this alternative. [AND. 2, 13]

On the other hand, it is important to note that despite the initial surprise, not all doubts could be resolved by the chatbot. The participants made it clear that the chatbot can help them with certain basic questions but not with complex issues, that is, it has a scope similar to that of other digital channels. For those interviewed, the value of the chatbot lies in the intention of the BCP to take its consumers into account and create a product that responds to a situation where it is no longer so frequent to talk with a person in person: It feels like I told you, very, very close, very personalized and finally I think that is what customers are looking for today. That they provide us with fast, personalized solutions that are focused on the experience that the customer can have because I think that is the most important thing today. [AND. 8, 23].

Therefore, the main attribute of the chatbot as a customer service channel highlighted by the interviewees is the proximity offered by this product, rather than by its functional value.

18.4.2 Dialogue as Part of the Chatbot’s Personality An important social signal that forms personality is language, and it is made up of the interactive use and recognition of language. Although the implementation of the personality of the chatbot seeks to create an experience as human as possible in a digital channel, the interviewees see the limitations of the chatbot in the dialogue, since from the beginning they perceive the automation of the conversation and, therefore, categorize the chatbot as a robot. For example, when starting the conversation with the chatbot, Clara BCP has a fairly extensive introduction to the service that can generate a first confusion before the experience of the dialogue. A participant verbalizes it: I understood it, but it took a while. To start with, first came a large protocol, terms and conditions; what I normally expect is that you only need to give you ID to have the information you are asking for, but it was not the case. [AND. 15, 13].

For this reason, from the beginning, all the interviewees were aware that they were interacting with a chatbot or “machine” and not with a person. In addition, despite having had positive experiences with Clara BCP, they are very aware that its scope is limited, which generates two types of reactions regarding its use. The first is not to use the chatbot due to the possibility of not finding answers and/or being redirected to another channel of attention. Some users point out the following: I would not ask a chatbot about the complaints I have with my card because I know that they will still send me to speak to a person, so I prefer to go directly to the person. [AND. 1, 15]

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Despite the possibility of dialogue, Clara is relegated by those who prefer faceto-face channels. One participant comments it like this: I know that there are many people who do not like to have conversations with other people, they are a little shy. Not me, I prefer to have an interaction with a real person and solve it there. [AND. 5, 13]

The second reaction consists of taking advantage of the speed of the chatbot to consult simple questions such as balances, movements, among others: Sometimes, as I am lazy, then I would prefer to do it that way faster and if Clara is going to be that fast, how it happened now that it was in 30 seconds, maximum one minute, obviously I would use it again. [AND. 4, 15].

Another participant emphasizes Clara’s agility: I would consult her again because it seemed to me to be a fairly quick service. Sometimes, in the calls or in some mail that you have to send, you have to wait a while for them to answer you. In the chat with Clara the answer was automatic, I found it quite agile and simple. [AND. 6, 14].

18.4.3 Relationship Between Chatbot Personality and Brand Values It was found that the implementation of the Clara BCP chatbot is consistent with the company’s brand values, especially that of providing a close and simple customer service experience. The chatbot personality factors that denote this relationship are Clara BCP’s physical image, the social role she takes during the conversation and the language used. Regarding the physical image and characterization of this character, the participants agree that it transmits tranquillity and confidence and projects the image of a person willing to talk. The physique also allows to associate Clara with the values of the brand. It is highlighted that both the face and the gender seek to give a feeling of sympathy and a predisposition to attend in the best way the user’s queries and that they also find in person. However, it is important to emphasize that the physique of the chatbot can go unnoticed by the user when talking with Clara BCP. Regarding gender, the vast majority cannot identify this distinction during the conversation, however, they assume that a female character has been chosen to work on gender equality and because of the warmth in the attention that a woman traditionally represents. One interviewee puts it like this: For me there is no problem [regarding gender]. I understand that the fact that she is a young lady suddenly helps the situation we are in, especially in Peru, in which equality is sought, which is very good [E. 10, 4].

Regarding the social role, when leading the conversation, Clara has the social role of a guide, a role similar to the one they encounter in person. After having interacted

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with Clara, the participants compare her with the employee in charge of receiving consumers when they arrive at the bank and help them resolve any doubts they may have. One of the participants exemplifies it like this: Clara would be the typical girl who helps you, who comes to assist you, who welcomes you with the biggest smile in the world, who treats you gently, with affection and guides you very well. [AND. 3, 8]

The values of the brand are also associated through the language that Clara uses in the dialogue with the user, since Clara speaks in a simple and easy to understand way, which is interpreted by the interviewees as an empathetic chatbot, willing to answer questions, seek to understand problems and solve them with great disposition.

18.4.4 Relationship Between the Chatbot’s Personality and the Feeling of Trust Throughout all the interviews, it was discovered that the association between the personality created for Clara BCP chatbot and its similarity with the face-to-face attention they receive from the brand is what allows that they feel confident when using the chatbot and assurance of the veracity of the responses received. In addition, this confidence is also achieved because the chatbot is able to correctly interpret the needs of the interviewees, offer a close dialogue and show a friendly characterization. The interviewees value that Clara BCP is able to identify the issues they are looking for and, for the most part, they feel comfortable when Clara BCP is the one leading the conversation. This feeling corresponds to the social role given to this chatbot. A participant illustrates: I find him friendly. At first, I kind of didn’t understand very well but then she just kept asking the questions and following the steps that she told you all very well. He always helped me achieve what I wanted. [AND. 4, 3]

Those who are used to using digital channels, see the conversation with Clara BCP as friendly, which builds confidence, and allows them to avoid automatic dialogue. For example, one narrates it this way: It makes everything very clear for you to select “yes” or “no”, “I confirm”, and all the information is quite clear. It seems to me as if a real person is attending to me, although obviously you can see that it is a bit robot, but it goes directly to what I want (...) so it’s very good. [AND. 6, 3]

However, those who had previously commented that they prefer to use face-toface channels, see the chatbot’s personality overshadowed by the “robotic” conversation they have with Clara and, consequently, the sense of trust towards the chatbot diminishes.

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18.5 Discussion and Conclusions The qualitative analysis of exploratory scope found that the main role that the personality of a chatbot fulfils is to be a guide and place the consumer in an environment that is familiar to them so that they can link the quality of the chatbot with the faceto-face attention characteristic of the brand, which seeks to be fast, simple and easy to understand. In this way, the personality of the chatbot generates a predisposition to positively value the chatbot and, consequently, to positively value the brand. In general, the implementation of the chatbot personality influences the level of trust in the brand and the predisposition to use this customer service channel. Because the personality of the chatbot is aligned with the values of the brand and the chatbot is correctly implemented, the consumer is able to appreciate the efforts of the brand to improve its customer service. Despite the fact that, after having used the chatbot, not everyone prefers to use Clara BCP, the attitude towards the brand they own is positive, since they qualify the effort as an initiative consistent with a brand that is at the forefront of technology. The aspects of the chatbot personality that are most easily associated with the brand are the social role, the physical and the language used. It should be noted that these social signals must be aligned with the values of the brand so that when observing and talking with the chatbot the consumer can easily associate the values most worked by the brand and thus, these can generate a similarity and connection with their perceptions previous. However, it is important to emphasize that the level of influence of the chatbot’s personality varies according to what people consider important, especially for those who prioritize face-to-face conversation over digital channels. It should be noted that this research has limitations. To begin with, almost all participants reported having no problems with the bank’s customer service. Therefore, the findings could vary if the interviewees had negative experiences with customer service or unresolved inquiries from the brand. For future research, it seems convenient to delve into the role of personality with two case studies so that it can serve as a comparison and denote more clearly according to the implementation that brands have made in their chatbots. On the other hand, future research may address the pandemic as a variable to delve into the chatbot personality depending on the context. In addition, it is suggested to add in the inclusion criteria, the type of previous perception about the quality of customer service, so that a variety of results can be ensured and not a polarized perception.

References 1. BCP—Banco de Crédito: ¡Hola! Soy Clara BCP, y estoy aquí para ayudarte (Archivo de Vídeo). Youtube (02 de julio de 2020). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3gmGdFzeA0 2. Britt, P.: Chatbot development: your guide to getting it right. Speech Technol. 24(3), 15–18 (2019). https://search.proquest.com/docview/2279772380?accountid=43860

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3. Chaves, A.P., Gerosa, M.A.: How should my chatbot interact? A survey on human-chatbot interaction design. School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems (2020). https://doi. org/10.1080/10447318.2020.1841438 4. Daymon, C., Holloway, I.: Qualitative Research Methods in Public Relations and Marketing Communications. Routledge (2010) 5. Deloitte: Leading the social enterprise. Reinvent with a human focus. Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends, (9) 34–54 (2019). https://documents.deloitte.com/insights/HCTrends2019 6. Denzin, N.K., Lincoln, Y.S.: The SAGE Handbook of Qualitative Research. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks (2005) 7. Fogg, B.J.: Persuasive Technology: Using Computers to Change What We Think and Do. Elsevier Science, Interactive Technologies (2002) 8. Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática: Una mirada a Lima Metropolitana (2014). https://www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1168/ libro.pdf 9. Kaczorowska-Spychalska, D.: How chatbots influence marketing. Management 23(1), 251–270 (2019). https://doi.org/10.2478/manment-2019-0015 10. Lunde, T.: Personality matters! Improving the user experience of chatbot interfaces-personality provides a stable pattern to guide the design and behaviour of conversational agents. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Noruega (2018). https://ntnuopen.ntnu.no/ntnu-xmlui/ handle/11250/2502575 11. Madden, T., Allen, C., Twible, J.: Attitude toward the Ad: an assesment of diverse measurement indices under different processing sets. J. Mark. Res. 25, 242–252 (1988) 12. McTear, M., Callejas, Z., Griol, D.: The Conversational Interface: Talking to Smart Devices (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32967-3 13. Nowak, K.L., Fox, J.: Avatars and computer-mediated communication: a review of the definitions, uses, and effects of digital representations. Rev. Commun. Res. 6, 30–53 (2018). https:// doi.org/10.12840/issn.2255-4165.2018.06.01.015 14. Pereira, M.J., Coheur, L., Fialho, P., Ribeiro, R.: Chatbots’ greetings to human–computer communication. ArXiv, 1609.06479 (2016). http://arxiv.org/abs/1609.06479 15. Przegalinska, A., Ciechanowski, L., Stroz, A., Gloor, P., Mazurek, G.: In bot we trust: a new methodology of chatbot performance measures. Bus. Horiz. 62(6), 785–797 (2019). https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2019.08.005 16. Sheehan, B., Jin, H., Gottlieb, U.: Customer service chatbots: anthropomorphism and adoption. J. Bus. Res. 115, 14–24 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.04.030 17. Shimp, T.: Attitude toward the Ad as a mediator of consumer brand choice. J. Advert. 10, 9–15 (1981) 18. Shum, H.-Y., He, X., Li, D.: From Eliza to XiaoIce: challenges and opportunities with social chatbots (2018). http://arxiv.org/abs/1801.01957 19. Stilson, J.: Chatting with the bots. Adweek 60(28), 10 (2019). http://search.ebscohost.com/ login.aspx?direct=true&db=bsu&AN=139451446&lang=es 20. Titus, C.: A guide to chatbots for publishers. EContent 42(2), 36–37 (2019). http://web.a.ebs cohost.com.upc.remotexs.xyz/ehost/detail/detail?vid=6&sid=c79637d0-9a5b-4027-88c4-6b0 2afb57046%40sessionmgr4007&bdata=Jmxhbmc9ZXM%3d#db=asn&AN=135922478 21. Vinyals, O., Le, Q.: A Neural conversation model. ArXiv, 1506.05869 (2015). https://arxiv. org/abs/1506.05869

Chapter 19

Ship Synthesis Model for the Conceptual Design of a Riverine Logistic Support Ship David Ricardo Alvarado, Edison Flores, and Omar David Vasquez

Abstract The development of a riverine low draft logistic support ship, capable of providing medical, supplies, and humanitarian aid to reach isolated communities where the only way to arrive is by shallow rivers, is required in an effort to achieve human and economic growth. To design a ship to satisfy these requirements, a synthesis model an automatic, and integrated design procedure have been integrated to generate and evaluate feasible ship dimensions at a conceptual design stage. In the procedure, a parent hull shape is adopted to evaluate through systematic variations of the main dimensions a design space in which the most effective concept ship solution is selected. At the end of this procedure, the main characteristics at a conceptual design stage for a riverine logistic support ship, capable to operate in the Pacific basin rivers to provide support to riverine vulnerable communities, are defined.

19.1 Introduction The geographic diversity of several regions that compounds the Colombian territory implies heterogeneity in the river’s nature related to their basins. Along with the hydrographic diversity of the rivers, there are countless isolated communities on which economic, transport, and communication activities are exclusively based on those rivers. Given the isolated nature of many of these communities, usually, the only way to arrive at those communities is by a river. Nevertheless, depending on season, basin, and the available infrastructure, only small out-board crafts are capable to dock in those settlements. Therefore, there is a need for a logistic support vessel capable of providing medical and humanitarian aid in these critical environments.

D. R. Alvarado · E. Flores · O. D. Vasquez (B) Ship Design and Engineering Department, COTECMAR, Mamonal Km. 9, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_19

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A riverine logistic support class ships with landing facilities might be the solution for the social problems of these communities by the access to commodities, government services, and medical aid. A large part of these settlements is geographically located on the Pacific basin. Rivers in the Pacific basin are known for their large flow, riverbanks surrounded by lush rainforests, shallow waters in dry seasons, and a great diversity in wildlife. Thus, the designed ship must be capable to present an effective performance under these environmental and social conditions. To design a vessel with such specific characteristics, the use of traditional design methods to obtain a conceptual design may be ineffective. At this conceptual stage, the basic ship’s characteristics such as length, beam, draft, or brake power are established. On this basis, the following design stages are developed in an iterative process until a vessel that satisfies all the requirements is generated. These approaches are known as ‘point-based design’, the results obtained only occupy a single point in the scenario of possible solutions. Kerns [1] stated that the traditional approach to ship design is largely an ‘ad hoc’ process based on experience, design lines, and rules of thumb where, often, objective attributes are not adequately quantified to support efficient and effective decisions [1]. Then, even though after the design cycle is finished and an effective ship was designed, a possibility exists that a better performance ship could have been developed. Given the reasons previously explained, a ship synthesis model is proposed to obtain basic characteristics at a conceptual stage of the design. The design of a logistic ship with such performance requires elaboration of a great amount of data—some of them could be like cargo vessels—most of which are strongly interdependent just as the case of hull weight, resistance, and brake power required. Then, the interdependence of input data implies that is not possible to analyze and solve each problem separately without establishing a time-consuming iterative process [2]. Therefore, an automatic design method is highly beneficial to explore a great number of different design combinations. In the synthesis model procedure, a parent hull shape is adopted to evaluate, through systematic variations of the main dimensions, all the elements necessary to perform the classical steps of the design. Naval ship concept design is required not only accurately evaluate the feasibility of projects, but also to optimize the technology indexes based on certain algorithms [2]. Then, some parts of the conceptual model have been calibrated with data from existing ships, to ensure accuracy in the predictions [3]. At the end of the model analysis, a group of possible conceptual ship solutions with a wide variety of dimensions and technical characteristics is obtained, each solution is evaluated from a technical point of view, and according to the design’s requirements, these solutions are ranked based on measures of merit criteria. The main aim of this work is to define the main characteristics at a conceptual design stage of a riverine logistic support ship with landing capabilities, able to operate in sheltered waters on the Pacific basin rivers to provide support to riverine vulnerable settlements by means of a ship synthesis model. Additionally, the structure of the synthesis model algorithm is explained.

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19.2 Synthesis Model of the Conceptual Design Process In order to obtain the riverine ship’s convenient dimensions and desirable characteristics as a first step to develop a complete and functional design, the next workflow is followed (see Fig. 19.1). First, restrictions are given by the Pacific basin rivers and functional requirements of the desired ship are defined. Then, a group of possible conceptual ship solutions with a wide variety of dimensions and technical characteristics is obtained, and those solutions give rise to a design space in which frontiers are defined for the river and functional restrictions. Finally, the obtained results are ranked by measures of merit criteria according to the project needs. The best-ranked ship dimensions are the basis for the design’s next phases. When the focus is made in the synthesis model’s ship generation procedure, first, input design parameters, such as length, beam, draft, and block coefficient, are defined. From each of these combinations, displacement, technical characteristics such as lightweight, payload capabilities, powering, and stability calculations are performed. Only if the results of these characteristics are feasible and present a convergence among the interdependent modules, acquisition cost is calculated and the obtained ship alternative is stored (Fig. 19.2). The model is divided into five different modules. Each module represents a set of naval architecture analytical and semi-empirical models. These models will be explained in the following section.

19.2.1 Weight Estimation Computing Module Balance among lightweight and displacement is a pivotal constraint in the synthesis model. This balance allows to rule out the alternatives that do not converge and, hence, are not part of the feasible region. This constraint is expressed as follows (see Eq. 19.1). L ∗ B ∗ T ∗ CB − Wlight − Dwt = 0

Fig. 19.1 Flowchart of the integrated design process

(19.1)

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Fig. 19.2 Flowchart of the synthesis model ship generation and check

19.2.2 Resistance and Powering Calculation Module Brake power estimation, at this stage of the design, might be inaccurate given the hull’s forms and hull-propulsion system relationship are slightly defined. Despite the vast body of research into hull resistance models, most of them are focused on marine vessels and due to high block coefficients with low L/B ratios typical of inland waters ships, these models are not considered [4]. Schneekluth and Bertram [5] proposed a semi-empirical relation between displacement, hull resistance, and velocity for inland ships preliminary designs on deep waters. In order to calculate the total hull’s resistance, a polynomial regression was applied (see Eq. 19.2).       lb f V 3 V 2 V RT = 73.73(γ )4 − 144.9 √ + 2.99 + 115.9 √ − 28.87 √  t L L L (19.2) Once deep-water resistance is known, a correction is applied for shallow waters. Lackenby [6] in his research presented a relation as a function of keel clearance, water depth as well as on the B/T ratio. Although this method does not take sinkage and trim effects into account, it is frequently used to correct resistance for shallow water effects [7] (see Eq. 19.3).   B RT (h) = − 0.125 + 0.875 K w D0 + 0.4 K w D1 RT (∞) T In which: K w D0 = 1 + 0.97e− 2.74 Cw D

(19.3)

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K w D1 = 0.75e− 4.875 Cw D CW D =

h−T T

Although Holtrop and Mennen [4] presented in their research a model to estimate the resistance of appendices, because of the simplicity of the algorithm and undefined variables needed, the resistance of appendices was fixed as 15% of the hull’s total resistance. An additional 15% security factor was added to the obtained total hull resistance. Brake power required can be obtained relating efficiency of the propulsion system with the effective power (see Eqs. 19.4 and 19.5). PE = RT × V

(19.4)

PE = ηprop PB

(19.5)

19.2.3 Autonomy Computing Module Ship autonomy is based on the load capacity and the consumption of provisions and fuel. This consumption rate is affected by the size of the crew and the length of each journey. For the consumption of drinking water, the “Sanitation on Ship” compendium of the World Health Organization recommends using 30 gallons per person each day and storage must be sufficient for a minimum of 2 days if a drinking water treatment plant is installed. Regarding the consumption of provisions, for this module, a ratio of daily consumption per person is implemented according to U.S Navy standards [8].

19.2.4 Center of Gravity and Weight Computation Module The weight of each conceptual ship is estimated from regressions developed from ships with similar performance. Because at this stage, it is impossible to calculate accurately and in detail the weight of the different construction groups (SWBS) that are part of the ship, such as structure, propulsion machinery, power generation equipment, auxiliary machinery, accommodations, and communication equipment, it is essential to summarize three main items: hull, machinery, and outfitting and add a margin of error to be included in the estimation. For this study, a 5% design-build margin applied to the lightweight of the vessel is used.

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Displacement is expressed as the sum of lightweight and deadweight (see Eq. 19.6).  = Lightweight + deadweight

(19.6)

First, lightweight is defined as the sum of the weight of the structural elements, outfitting and machinery (see Eq. 19.7). Wlight = Wsteel + Wout + Wm/c + Margin

(19.7)

In which: Wsteel = structural weight Wout = Outfitting weight Wm/c = Machinery weight Margin = 5% lightweight Younis et al. [9], in their research, presented a steel weight regression for inland ships, in which steel weight is shown as function of L, B, D, draft, and block coefficient (see Eq. 19.8). 0.831  Wsteel = 0.097 ∗ C ∗ E 1.36

(19.8)

In which: E = L oa ∗ (B + T ) + 0.85L oa ∗ (D − T )    C = 1 + 0.05 ∗ CB − 0.7 CB

 (1 − CB )(0.8D − T ) = CB + 3T

The outfitting weight is proportional to L and B. Maged [10] stated that, for inland ships, this relation presents a proportional factor of 0.028 ton/m2 (see Eq. 19.9). Wout = 0.028 L B

(19.9)

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Regarding machinery weight, Schneekluth and Bertram [5] presented that machinery weight is related to diesel engine speed in such a way that machinery weights can be calculated as follows. • Low speed diesel engines (110–140 rpm): 0.016–0.045 t/kW • Medium speed diesel engines (400–500 rpm): 0.012–0.020 t/kW • Type ‘V’ Medium speed diesel engines (400–500 rpm): 0.008–0.015 t/kW Additionally, Sherali [11] stated that the relation among machinery weight and its brake power follows a 0.02 proportional relation (see Eq. 19.10). Wm/c = 0.020 ∗ PB

(19.10)

On the other hand, deadweight is calculated as the function of containers transported on board. 10 tons are considered as the average weight for each modular transport element. The number of modular transport elements is determined based on the number of containers along the length of the vessel, the number of containers across the beam, and the number of container levels. In addition to the payload, other weights are added to the deadweight, such as fuel, carried water, weights associated with the crew, provisions, ballast that is not permanent, or lubricating oil. To calculate the center of gravity related to steel, machinery and outfitting weights previously obtained, Younis [9] in his research presented the gravity center of each lightweight component as a proportional coefficient of depth (see Eqs. 19.11–19.13). K G steel = 0.70 ∗ D

(19.11)

K G out = 1.20 ∗ D

(19.12)

K G m/c = 0.60 ∗ D

(19.13)

Deadweight center of gravity is defined by modular containers on deck. Then, this center of gravity is defined by depth (D), the layers of containers NLayer , and container height (hcn) (see Eq. 19.14).  K G cont = D +

Nlayer ∗ hcn 2

(19.14)

For centers of gravity of other weights such as fuel, provisions, drinking water, non-permanent ballast, stores, or lubricating oil, [9] proposed the next relation (see Eq. 19.15). K G others = 0.34 ∗ D

(19.15)

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19.2.5 Stability Checking Module Stability could be defined as the property of a body that causes it when disturbed from a condition of equilibrium or steady motion to develop forces or moments that finally restore the original steady condition. In ships, a higher stability grade implies that are less prone to capsize. The principles behind the stability of river vessels are no different from those of seagoing vessels and therefore common knowledge methods can be used to determine the stability of a vessel in river navigation. There are, however, regulations that are related to the stability of river vessels that must be respected, and these regulations affect the freeboard and can limit the amount of cargo that can be transported [12]. In the early stages of design, the transverse metacentric height (GMT) indicates the level of stability of the vessel, as well for riverine vessels, the GMT must be above 1 m (see Fig. 19.3) (see Eq. 19.16). G MT = K B + B MT − K G

(19.16)

Rawson and Tupper [12] stated that the vertical buoyancy center (KB) for riverine vessels can be calculated as a function of draft (see Eq. 19.17). K B = 0.535 ∗ T

(19.17)

Similarly, the transverse metacentric radius (BM T ) is calculated according to the following equation [12] (see Eq. 19.18).

B MT =

 1 B2 T  ∗ T 12.5 − D

(19.18)

The vertical center of gravity (KG) is calculated using the following equation, considering the centers of gravity calculated in the module of weights and centers of mass (see Eq. 19.19). KG =

Fig. 19.3 Illustration of the stability parameters

(W ∗ K G)light + (W ∗ K G)Dwt 

(19.19)

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19.2.6 Costs Estimation Module This module was carried out to estimate a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) the cost required for the ship construction (P). The model is based on material (Csteel ), outfitting (Cout ), and machinery costs (Cm/c ) (see Eq. 19.20). P = Csteel + Cout + Cm/c + Others

(19.20)

The steel cost is defined by material and labor cost [13] (see Eq. 19.21). The labor cost is given as a result of man-hours MhsHull multiplied by the cost of each hour Cmh hull (see Eqs. 19.22 and 19.23). K 0 is defined as a sensitivity constant obtained by each shipyard planning. Csteel = Cslab + Csmat

(19.21)

Cslab = MhsHull ∗ Cmh hull

(19.22)

MhsHull

3 (L oa ) ∗ (Wsteel )2 = K0 ∗ Cb

(19.23)

The block coefficient is used as a shape factor that affects the content of the steelwork that comprises the hull shape steel in the form of one more cost to produce. The material cost (Csmat ) is calculated by multiplying the weight of the steel by a fixed value for the manufacture of one ton of steel [13]. The cost of welding and gases is normally added to the structural material cost as a percentage which is based on an analysis of the ships built (see Eq. 19.24). Csmat = (1 + C0 )5 ∗ (1 + Sv ) ∗ Vsteel ∗ Wsteel

(19.24)

C0 is the change in percentage (%) of the unit cost of the material [14]. This is a function of variations in the block coefficient, which also changes the costs of the hull and the propulsion systems. Equipment and engineering costs are divided into labor equipment cost and equipment material cost. Equipment labor costs are calculated from the equipment weight ratio, which requires an evaluation of man-hours and multiplying this by an average wage per man-hour. Equipment material cost is a ratio of equipment weight multiplied by a material unit cost factor. On the other hand, propulsion plant costs are assumed to vary continuously with propulsion power and are the result of propulsion power multiplied by unit costs per unit of energy [14].

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19.3 Methodology For this work, to run the conceptual synthesis model, a MATLAB algorithm was programmed. The algorithm is mainly composed of four blocks. In the first block, the input data corresponding to the characteristics of the parent vessel as a starting point is entered. This vessel must have a similar hull shape, functions, and preferably be built and tested, to reduce uncertainties about the parameterization results. In the second block, the restrictions of the dimensions that give the borders of the design space are presented. From there, the counter block is entered. In the block of counters, the step of the variation of the parameters is determined to generate the possible combinations. Finally, in the block for calculations, the power, capacities, weights, stability, and costs modules are carried out; the combinations that do not meet the requirements established for each module are discarded. At the exit of this module, the iterations that make up the design space are saved (see Fig. 19.4).

Fig. 19.4 Synthesis model algorithm

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Fig. 19.5 Colombian Navy logistic support vessel as parent ship

Table 19.1 Dimensions of the parent ship

Dimensions

Parent ship

Total length (m)

49

Beam (m)

11

Draft (m)

1.5

Displacement (t)

685

Brake power (kW)

820

A Colombian Navy logistic support class ship (BDA—Amphibious Landing Vessel) was used as parent hull to select the most effective vessel for Pacific basin ships (see Fig. 19.5) (see Table 19.1).

19.3.1 Boundaries of the Synthesis Model To determine the main dimensions of the concept ship, the boundaries of the possible length, beam, and depth obtained must be established. Those boundaries are defined based on parametric references of ships with similar characteristics related to the concept ship. For this study, the L/B, L/D, and B/T relationships found by Younis [9] in his research are used. Most of the inland vessels are characterized by high values in block coefficients and, hence, a greater displacement at the low draft resulting in a reduction of their construction cost. Therefore, for most river navigation vessels, the block coefficient can vary between 0.8 and 0.9 [9]. The ship’s draft is limited by the depth of the water. The clearance between the ship and the bottom of the track must be at least 0.50 m [15]. The minimum depth established in the project requirements with a value of 1.7 m is taken as a reference. Then, the maximum design depth is to be 1.2 m. Based on the B/T ratios and the minimum freeboard constraints—0.5 m—, the minimum possible draft boundary for the vessel is found to be 0.6 m (see Fig. 19.6).

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Fig. 19.6 Channel dimensions

The minimum channel widths necessary for safe navigation on straight sections depend on the type and size of the equipment in general use in the channel, the alignment and speed of the currents, the intensity of the prevailing wind, the limits of the channel, aids to navigation, and whether one-way or two-way traffic is allowed. The minimum width of the channel must provide for the width occupied by a vessel, clearance between a vessel and channel limits, and clearance between vessels for bidirectional traffic [16]. Operating experience has indicated that the minimum space required for reasonably safe navigation on straight sections should be at least 20 ft (6 m) between the ship and the limits of the two-way traffic channel, 40 ft (12.19 m) for one-way traffic, and at least 50 ft (15.2 m) between skids when passing [17]. Considering that the specifications for the double-lane navigable channel of the Baudó River with a width of 53 m in the vicinity of the Pie del Pató in the upper Baudó, the maximum beam of the ships that would use the fluvial artery to be able to be within the safe navigation specifications must comply with the previous considerations. Therefore, the maximum possible beam of the concept ship cannot be greater than 12.5 m. Given the B/T and L/T relationships and the need for carry-on board two containers in width, the minimum beam boundary is set as 7.5 m. When using the BDA as the ‘Parent’ vessel with a maximum length of 49 m and a design previously tested in river environments, this value is taken as the maximum length of the model. The minimum length is defined by the minimum possible length/breadth ratio. In this way, the minimum length of the model will be limited to 33.3 m. The depth restrictions are determined by the maximum and minimum length/depth ratios. Then, the maximum depth of the vessel can be 2.9 m and the smallest, 1.1 m. The boundaries and range of dimensions for the model are summarized below (see Tables 19.2 and 19.3). Table 19.2 Geometric relationships

Geometric relationships

Values

L OA /D

22.20–17.04

L OA /B

5.85–4.50

B/T

10.38–7.54

CB

0.8–0.9

19 Ship Synthesis Model for the Conceptual Design of a Riverine Logistic … Table 19.3 Dimensions range

Characteristics

Values

Beam (m)

12.5–7.4

Length (m)

49–33.3

Depth (m)

2.9–1.1

Draft (m)

1.2–0.6

Ship speed (knots)

9.0–6.2

229

19.4 Results and Discussion From the synthesis model, 31,200 iterations were obtained 266 of which were convergent. For each of those convergent solutions, vessel basic geometry characteristics such as required brake power, displacements, weights, and acquisitions costs were stored. First, the convergent results filtered on ships capable of navigation at 9 knots were plotted in terms of brake power as a function of displacement in order to obtain the design space. An additional L oa /B and B/T relations were characterized in order to discuss the dimensional effect on the power/displacement relationship (see Fig. 19.7). By relating the values obtained in the relationship between displacement and the required brake power at 9 knots, a higher displacement implies higher brake power requirements. Also, the results were classified in L oa /B and B/T to explain the effects of general dimensions on the brake power requirements, and these relations can be seen more clearly in the next figure (see Fig. 19.8). It is found that as the

Fig. 19.7 Required brake power at 9 knots as function of displacement

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Fig. 19.8 Effect of L/B and B/T on the required brake power

length/beam ratio increases, less power is required for a given displacement. In the same way, but with less influence, the higher the beam/draft ratio, the lower the brake power required. Additionally, each plotted point is related to a different block coefficient value from 0.8 to 0.9; the higher the value of this coefficient is, the higher the displacement and also the required brake power. The trend of this data is known, and they were explained by [12] where is stated that cargo riverine vessels present a flat bottom due to draft restrictions. Longer and slender ships present a lower hull resistance, while ships designed with a higher beam are known for better stability. The relationship between Cb, displacement, and brake power can better be seen on a three-dimensional graph (see Fig. 19.9). The higher the displacement and block coefficient, the higher the power required. Given that each conceptual solution is calculated with a range of velocities from 6.0 to 9.0 knots a brake power curve can be plotted (see Fig. 19.10). In the Figure below, the effect of the block coefficient can be defined in a single set of dimensions. A higher block coefficient implies an increase in the brake power required, this increment is higher as a function of velocity. At 9 knots, the brake power difference between a ship with a block coefficient of 0.8 and a similar dimensioned ship designed with a block coefficient of 0.9 can be close to 15%. Considering the same previous conceptual solution dimensions, it was plotted the displacement–acquisition cost relationship based on ship speed and block coefficient. It was found a strong dependence of acquisition cost to ship speed rather than block coefficient. This may mean that taking apart length and beam changes, machinery cost calculations have a greater influence in cost acquisition calculation rather than steel cost expressed only by terms of block coefficient. A ship speed increment of 11% leads to an acquisition cost increment close to 4% maintaining the same displacement, whereas a 12.5% increment of block coefficient

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Fig. 19.9 Effect of Cb on the brake power—displacement relationship

Fig. 19.10 Brake power curve for a single ship concept

implies an increment in the displacement of 15% and a subsequent increment of 2% in acquisition cost (see Fig. 19.11). By relating the design space in terms of displacement and cost acquisition and classifying the data by L/B relationships, it was found a range of weights according to Eq. 19.6 where the sum of lightweight and deadweight is equal to the displacement. The greater the displacement, the greater the lightweight of the vessel and therefore the acquisition cost. Depending on the L/B and Cb, the acquisition cost may vary close to 5% (see Fig. 19.12). By directly relating the length/breadth ratio and Cb versus brake power, it can be seen that the higher the length/beam ratio and the lower the block coefficient, the lower is the brake power required (see Fig. 19.13). Higher L/B relations imply

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Fig. 19.11 Displacement versus acquisition costs

Fig. 19.12 Design space in terms of displacement and acquisition cost

slender ships and a decrease in hull resistance. An increase of 22% in slenderness leads to a decrease of about 30% of the required brake power maintaining a block coefficient of 0.8. A decrease in block coefficient implies a reduction in the required brake power, nevertheless, related to L/B relations, the effect of reducing Cb is more limited; a reduction of 12% in block coefficient implicates a decreasing about 17% in the required brake power. As the draft is one of the critical parameters for the selection of the final dimensions of the vessel, the effect of this is related to the results of required brake power and the L/B ratio. From these relationships, it is evident that the largest draft is developed

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Fig. 19.13 Brake power requirements versus L oa /B and Cb

with smaller L/B ratios; this may be because the greater drag due to the greater beam leads to the need to select more powerful and therefore heavier engines (see Fig. 19.14). The ship range calculated considering the proportion of the reference vessel’s fuel tanks; scaling this volume concerning to the dimensions of each of the possible solutions and considering the consumption of their propulsion systems as a function of the brake power obtained for each concept.

Fig. 19.14 Brake power requirements versus L oa /B and draft

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Fig. 19.15 Ship range as a function of the length

When comparing the reach obtained for the limits of the evaluated length of length, it is evident that, with a length of 45 m in length, the range is 36% greater compared to a ship with a total length of 39 m. Also, according to Fig. 19.15, an increase in block coefficient implies a reduction in ship range, and it was also observed, at 42 m, length ships with two different depths are reported; ships with greater depths present a significant increase in their range. An increase in beam dimensions may imply a slight increase in ship range. This could be explained by the greater size of fuel tanks. Considering the relationships described and to obtain the most convenient conceptual solution, a multi-criteria selection model was developed with the ‘Expert Choice’ software. This software, by implementing an analytical hierarchy process, allows supporting the selection of one of the alternatives. For the evaluation of the best alternative, deadweight, lightweight, range, and the minimum required brake power were taken as selection criteria. A vessel that can carry the greatest amount of supplies with the least possible draft and lightweight is desirable for this project. Additionally, a greater autonomy would allow reaching more remote locations and a lower power requirement would allow the selection of engines with lower weight, consumption, and dimensions, even ensuring a maximum speed of 9 knots. From the selection model, the four best-ranked solutions are plotted below (see Fig. 19.16). Among the four possible best performance solutions, the solution with the greatest range is also the one with the lowest ratings in terms of lightweight. The solution with the best rating in lightweight, that is, whose lightweight is less, has a range of about 32% less than that obtained for the 45 m length ship solution. On the other hand, the intermediate solutions present similar ratings in terms of deadweight and required power. However, the shortest beam and length solution present a better lightweight rating and a 10% decrease in range than the maximum obtained solution.

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Fig. 19.16 Best-ranked solutions performance

According to the requirements of the project, deadweight was set as the main attribute, followed by lightweight, range, and brake power at the end of the hierarchy. From the selection model, the following measure of merit was obtained (see Table 19.4). Thus, the best-ranked solution presents a 42 m length and 8 m beam. The obtained dimensions and the corresponding comparison to the parent ship can be found in Table 19.4. The selected conceptual design exhibits a slender hull with a 5.25 L/B ratio in comparison with the parent ship’s 4.45 L/B ratio. The reduced beam and depth results in a ship whose displacement is 2.6 times lower but with a 6% displacement/brake power ratio higher. Additionally, the selected ship presents a 33% less draft in comparison with the parent ship, and this new draft conditions and the other characteristics previously mentioned could allow this new design to navigate in shallow riverine waters and comply with the requirements of the project (see Table 19.5). Table 19.4 Measure of merit of the selection model

Parameter

Measure of merit (%)

Deadweight

58.8

Lightweight

26.0

Range

9.2

Min. brake power

6.0

236 Table 19.5 Best-ranked vessel selected

D. R. Alvarado et al. Dimensions

Parent ship

Best-ranked ship

Total length (m)

49

42 ± 1.20

Beam (m)

11

8 ± 0.25

Depth (m)

3.1

2.3 ± 0.20

Draft (m)

1.5

1.0 ± 0.02

Cb

0.82

0.825 ± 0.01

Displacement (t)

685

264

Brake power (kW)

820

298

19.5 Conclusions With the development of this rational methodology, a convergent and adequate solution is obtained for the conceptual design of a logistic support vessel based on requirements and restrictions of inland navigation on the Colombian Pacific basin. The design space corresponds to viable alternatives for logistic support vessel for river environments. From this model, the dimensions for a 1 m draft vessel with an advantageous deadweight/lightweight ratio and lower installed power requirements were obtained. The obtained ship dimensions can be the design baseline for subsequent designs. The required brake power is strongly influenced by length/beam ratio, a higher ratio implies a reduction in hull resistance and, therefore, an increase in brake power. Block coefficient presents a slighter influence which an increment of this will result also in an increase in the required brake power.

References 1. Kerns, C.: Naval ship design and synthesis model architecture using a model-based systems engineering approach. Virginia polytechnic Institute, Virginia (2011) 2. Vernengo, G., Rizzuto, E.: Ship synthesis model for the preliminary design of a fleet of compressed natural gas carriers. Ocean Eng. 89, 188–199 (2014) 3. Yuanhang, H., Zhang, J., Chunbo, Z.: Development of naval ship synthesis model in concept design. Adv. Mater. Res. 945–949, 490–493 (2014) 4. Holtrop, J., Mennen, F.: An approximate power prediction method. Int. Shipbuilding Prog. 29, 166–171 (1982) 5. Schneekluth, H., Bertram, V.: Ship Design for Efficiency and Economy. ButterworthHeinemann, Oxford (1998) 6. Lackenby, H.: The effect of shallow water on ship speed. In: The Ship Builder and the Marine Engine Builder (1963) 7. Rotteveel, E.: Investigation of inland ship resistance, propulsion and manoeuvring using literature study and potential flow calculations. TU Delf, Delf (2013) 8. USN, NAVSEA S9086-C6-CTM-010/CH-096R1: chapter 96: Naval ships, technical manual, weights and stability (1996) 9. Younis, G., Gaafary, M., El-Kilani, Moustafa, M.: Techno-economical optimization for river Nile container ships. Brodogradnja 62(4), 383–395 (2011)

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10. Maged, M.: A design optimization model for inland water units. Ph.D thesis, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria (2008) 11. Sherali, H.: Global of the nonconvex containership design problem using the reformulationlinearization technique. Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Virginia (2001) 12. Rawson, K., Tupper, E.: Basic Ship Theory, Ship Dynamics and Design, vol. 1. BH (2001) 13. Hekkenberg, R.: Inland ships for efficient transport chains. TuDELF, Delf (2012) 14. Carreyette, J.: Preliminary ship cost estimation. Roy. Inst. Naval Architects (1977) 15. Radojcic, D.: Innovative transport vehicles on the Danube and its tributaries, Danube Project Centre, Belgrade (2004) 16. U.S Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer manual 1110-2-1611-layout and design of shallowdraft waterways (1997) 17. COTECMAR, Restricciones para el diseño de u sistema de transporte intermodal de conteneodres a traves del río Magdalena. COTECMAR, Cartagena (2015)

Chapter 20

Aeronautical Industry Development in Emerging Countries: Factors—A Case Study Anibal Jara-Olmedo, Danilo Chavez, Orlando Boiteux, and Mauricio Quisimalín Abstract The development of aeronautical industry depends on factors that enhance the collaboration among all the organizations of the sector. However, in emerging countries, the scenario is different than in developed countries. A lack of investment and weak organizational structures affects the way the industry grows. An alternative to improve this development is identify the particularities of these topics in nondeveloped countries and how the industry, academy and government work on them. This paper discusses how the aeronautical organizations in Development Zone 3 in Ecuador overcome the problems by collaborative solutions and get advantage of the opportunities. The findings of the research are presented as a case study.

20.1 Introduction In some industries, the consolidation of several companies takes advantage of the unification of supply chains, generation of synergies, advantage of geographical position and government policies, specialization of labor, among others (Jurˇci´c and Lovrenˇci´c, 2020). The aeronautical sector is one of these industries, which has been consolidated in several countries and regions around the world (Bello Zapata, 2017). A. Jara-Olmedo (B) CIDFAE Research and Development Center, Ambato, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] D. Chavez Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] O. Boiteux Universidad Nacional de San Juan, San Juan, Argentina M. Quisimalín Universidad Técnica de Ambato, Ambato, Ecuador A. Jara-Olmedo UNCuyo, Mendoza, Argentina © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_20

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These industrial conglomerates called clusters take advantage of their infrastructure, joint capacities and R&D&i potential. They produce parts and components, manufacture or assembly aircrafts, develop emerging technologies and create new training technologies (Elola et al. 2019). In Europe, the Andalusian aerospace cluster in Spain (González Flores and Gálvez, 2002) brings together more than 60 companies, including aeronautical sector partners and collaborators, external service agreements (aircraft manufacturing companies and subcontractors), support institutions (research centers, universities, government) and strategic alliances. In USA, two cases can be highlighted. The first case is Mexico, with a large aeronautical industry with design, production and engineering centers of international companies in the north part of the country. These centers provide components and services to several world-class companies, mainly taking advantage of its proximity to the big market of the USA (Secretaría de Economía, 2012) (MuñozSanchez et al. 2019). The second case is Brazil, where Embraer is not only one of the largest aircraft manufacturers in the world, but also a clear example of the success of continuous technological development and innovation for several decades with the participation of industry, academia and government in the same cluster (Jewell 2017). These success stories have as common elements an adequate and efficient cooperation industry–academia–government, a scenario hard to find in Latin America. In Spain, Mexico and Brazil, there were government policies that supported the growth, development and expansion of the aeronautical industry (Chavarría, Villalobos and Grossman, 2020). On the other hand, collaboration with academia is essential for the development of the aeronautical industry (Jewell 2017). However, in some emerging countries as Ecuador, this ideal scenario is far from actual conditions and some alternatives ways need to be explored. The paper aims to present and discuss the alternatives proposed for the aeronautical development in the central region of Ecuador. The paper is structured as follows. The next section briefly presents the methodology strategy. The second section presents the characteristics of the aeronautical industry in the central region. The third one presents the structure and organizations of the industry in the region of study. The fourth section examines the main factors for the development of the industry. The fifth one presents the alternatives considered by the organizations. Finally, there is a discussion about the application of the alternatives.

20.2 Methodology First, the authors made a review of the existing literature on aeronautical industry cases to determine main factors contributing to the development of this sector. Based on the information collected, a draft questionnaire was used as a guideline for the interviews to verify all the aspects which are included in the research. Expert judgment (Dalkey and Helmer, 1963) was the assessment methodology to obtain and

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process the information. From what the experts know about the subject, we obtain a group result to be used as information in decision-making. The gathering of information and data was based on in-depth interviews with industry, operators, academia and local government authorities. The interviewees were two logistic commanders of the N.11 Transport Wing, one airline maintenance director, two former directors of an R&D center and two head of departments from universities and four local authorities. All these people were involved in aeronautical industry at least one year.

20.3 The Aeronautics Industry in Development Zone 3 Ecuador In Ecuador, government plans for industrial development do not include a finance support or specific policy for the aeronautical industry (SENPLADES 2017b). In the central region of Ecuador, government promoted isolated initiatives as the local production of fumigation aircrafts, the development of unmanned aircrafts (MIDENA 2014) (Fiallos Castillo et al. 2016) or the production of parts and components for regional trainer airplane (UNASUR 2015). However, these initiatives have been diluted over the years without producing satisfactory results. As part of these projects, a Technological Disaggregation Center to support the aeronautical industry was initially located in the city of Latacunga [16]. As can be determined, in Ecuador, like other South American countries, the collaboration of the aeronautical industry with universities and the government has been punctual and intermittent. Aeronautical industry at global level is one of the most regulated. Product and service suppliers need specific certifications to work (Eiriz et al. 2016) (Soshkin 2016). On the other hand, for maintenance service providers (commonly called MRO for its acronym in English), it is mandatory to have the certifications of the aeronautical authorities of the countries where the airplanes belong (Sirat and Harun 2015). For these factors, the production of parts and services is very specialized. In this scenario, the aeronautical industry in Ecuador has been oriented mainly to the field of maintenance services, with MRO companies located in the airports of Quito, Latacunga and Guayaquil to supply line maintenance to the airlines and private aviation (Laverde 2019). Additional specialized services are provided by small MRO with technical teams. Under this scenario, in one of the nine development zones in Ecuador, the Planning Zone 3—Center located in provinces of Cotopaxi and Tungurahua, there are most of the main players in the country’s aeronautical industry (FAE 2019). In Latacunga from the industrial side, we can find some maintenance organizations and suppliers’ companies. For commercial and military aircrafts, Aeronautical Industry of Ecuador (DIAF) is the largest MRO in Ecuador. Additionally, since 2021, an engine overhaul facility is open. For the military, Cotopaxi Air Force Base and Maintenance Center (CEMAF) are maintenance organizations of Ecuadorian Air Force. In the cities of

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Latacunga and Ambato, there are small local suppliers that participate in the local aeronautical industry with related goods, resources and services. From the operators side, the air force concentrates the largest number of military transport aircrafts in the N. 11 Transport Wing. With small traffic at the moment, the Cotopaxi International Airport is one of the largest runways in the country and used by other state aircraft and international cargo air operators. On the academic side, Armed Forces University in Latacunga is the only university that offers degrees in aeronautical areas in Ecuador. Three institutes for training and improvement of technical personnel of the air force (FAE 2019) are located in the same city. Additionally, in the city of Ambato (30 min by car from Latacunga), we can find the Air Force Research and Development Center (CIDFAE), organization oriented exclusively to the aeronautical sector. Next to CIDFAE, the Chachoán aerodrome is used for small airplanes and as a flight test facility. Considering the stages of clusters’ development (Verde and López 2013), all the organizations named previously can be considered in agglomeration stage. The agglomeration stage defines some organizations geographically located in the same area with some complementary services for the industry. However, despite decades of permanence, these organizations have not been able to formally develop links and a cooperation structure that allow them to reach the stage of emerging cluster. The emerging cluster defines organizations cooperating around a specific business area with a growing link. This lack of formal structure does not allow better use of joint capacities and synergy that can be established between these organizations.

20.4 Aeronautical Industry Development Factors 20.4.1 Industry Structure The structure of global aviation industry has been defined as a global network of manufacturers, vendors and suppliers organized as a supply chain (McGuire and Islam 2015) (López, Contreras and Jordá 2015). There is a concentrated group of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), represented by the traditional aircraft market firms such as Airbus, Boeing or Embraer, responsible for the assembly and integration of products. OEMs outsource different aircraft components to a segment of wide range of suppliers with different levels of production complexity [7]. The last segment in the supply chain is the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services, which are influenced directly by the activities of the aircraft operators (Ahmad et al. 2013). The manufacturing of aircrafts as well as their components tends to be concentrated in agglomerations, clusters or associations of clusters distributed worldwide. This concentration is justified by the high level of technology and investment required by the rigid standards of this industry.

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20.4.2 Investment Historically, aerospace and defense industries started with government direct investment to sustain their initial activities. This investment contributed to create adequate infrastructure, technological knowledge access and collaboration structures between research and production organizations [13]. In developing countries, there are some disadvantages as volatile macroeconomic conditions, limited domestic markets, superficial financial markets and impossibility of subsidizing R&D or even lack of specialized higher education (Hira and de Oliveira 2007). The development of aeronautical industry must consider the type of government support, industrial policies and financing opportunities.

20.4.3 Geographic Location The evaluation of geographic location to manufacture aircrafts has mainly economic parameters, such as competitiveness of costs, new requirements in knowledge capabilities and dependence on intersectoral technologies [1]. In costs, especially for provision of services, the emergence of alternatives’ locations in emerging countries is driven by market requirements, where large operators have operation centers in different parts of the planet. In knowledge capacities, it is important new forms of cooperation in R&D and governance structures in knowledge management and applied research. Intersectoral technologies can be used by several sectors, for example, the development of interior cabins can be applied to cars, aircraft and trains. These aspects could benefit emerging countries in order to get investment from holdings of OEMs.

20.4.4 Innovation Structures Generally, in developed countries, a national innovation structure is established, and university–industry relations are described by the university conducting basic research [4], leaving the role of applied technology development to companies. On the other hand, in emerging countries, most national innovation systems are incipient, companies do not have internal capacities to develop innovation activities and universities are mainly used to solve technical problems or develop technological applications based on business needs. Therefore, the organizations of the aeronautical industry must consider the innovation and technology development structures as a referential framework for the respective management. In the aerospace industry [17], innovation cannot be produced considering just internal or external resources in isolation. The globalization of the aeronautical value chain has represented an important opportunity for developing countries, but at the same time, its technological

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complexity makes innovation a fundamental element for organizations. Companies must be able to compete not only with local organizations but also with companies of international level.

20.4.5 Collaboration of Organizations Collaboration mechanisms in the aeronautical industry can be based on concepts developed such as the triple helix [14] relation industry–academy–government. Within this general framework, collaboration for the provision of technology and services among various geographically dispersed industry players has been proposed for industries related to aeronautics [18]. For aeronautics clusters, the models seek to improve organizational development, competitive management, technology and innovation among organizations [10]. In the development of an aeronautical cluster [9], the government involvement is a key facilitating factor for the process of collaboration, helping to bridge the gap between new entrants and traditional players. For developed clusters [2], collaboration focused on the transfer of knowledge, the type of networks and the number of generated knowledge [8]. The interaction in a cluster can change from a highly hierarchical structure, centralized around a couple of longstanding oligopolistic companies to a more democratic structure with multipolar type of flow of knowledge. In this type of structure, small- and medium-sized SMEs can rise to the top levels leading knowledge management. These results would demonstrate that each cluster undertakes specific actions according to its environment and highlight the importance of collaboration networks to develop the industry.

20.5 Opportunities for the Aeronautical Industry in Ecuador 20.5.1 Structure In the central region of Ecuador, the industry development is based solely on the own organizations’ resources. Then, companies must prioritize their growth in feasible and optimal segments. The establishment of differences between aeronautical manufacturing and maintenance determines that organizations should consider these particularities to establish its field of action or scope. The maintenance sector remains as the adequate segment for the local aeronautical structure. The new scenarios with the aeronautical industry shifting some of its activities from developed countries to emerging countries require special attention and become an opportunity for local companies.

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Outside the clusters, in countries with economic restrictions like Ecuador, the development of the aeronautical industry could be limited by high levels of investment or technology. However, the segment of maintenance organizations may have opportunities because its ability to operate independently of the defined clusters and the market needs for its location in areas close to the operators. The maintenance organizations in central region are located close to the main military operator. Additional commercial operator has the Cotopaxi International Airport as a convenient and available way to reach demaintenance hangars. Additionally, for aeronautic services such as maintenance, these companies need relatively less investment in facilities, technology or knowledge than manufacturing companies [12]. Therefore, the aeronautical industry in the central region, where there is not a formal clusters, focuses on the MRO area, taking advantage of the provision of intensive labor, low-cost services or its geographical location [11].

20.5.2 Investment Due to the absence of government investment in the industry, companies need to configure their business models employing solutions based on their own resources as well as establishing alliances between service organizations and manufacturers [15, 19]. Considering maintenance service as the driver of the industry in Latacunga, the innovations to the MRO business model must satisfy the demands of the local operators while seeking to seize the opportunities and mitigate the threats resulting from the entry of manufacturers that not only provide goods but also services. The innovation of the value proposition must offer among its main points: new repair methods, customized solutions and additional services based on the resources and capabilities of the MROs. In this way, capabilities for commercial airlines are being used by military aircrafts including NDT test, avionics inspections or painting work. Third, these resources and capabilities must be expanded based on opportunities in collaboration with partners and the integration of clients in the internal generation of value. Thus, DIAF opens the motor overhaul facility directly to satisfy air force requirements. In this framework, MRO companies could focus on improving their production processes [3], transferring those models to their industrial sector from other related industries cross-sector. CIDFAE is taking advantage of automotive industry to develop test bench and test cabins for aeronautical maintenance activities. Under this scenario, medium-sized and small companies with limited financial capabilities and starting equipment must establish innovation and technology management strategies that allow them to increase their skills in order to be more competitive in a highly globalized market.

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20.5.3 Geographic Location If the aeronautical company is not a part of a cluster, complementary external resources can be found as a result of geographical factors, such as urbanized concentrations that offer well-developed infrastructure and nearby services, or local industries with products or technologies can be used in the aeronautical sector. The aeronautical organizations are found in Latacunga in an urbanized area of five square kilometers. The aeronautical infrastructure with an international airport in Latacunga and an alternative runway in Ambato, available hangars or specialized laboratories can be an advantage from the geographical position. Additionally, Ambato has a well-established automotive industry with experience in car assembly and bodywork, technologies related to the industry. These factors can be an advantage in costs, knowledge capabilities and intersectoral technologies.

20.5.4 Innovation Structures Aeronautical industry organizations in the central region of Ecuador are small and medium companies. Without a well-defined innovation structure, they need to work with informal institutional structures and local links. The concentration of the aeronautical industry in urban areas can facilitate the construction of interorganizational networks to promote innovation [5]. The presence and proximity in a single territorial space of companies, research centers, universities, associations or local government bodies can strengthen the construction of cooperation networks, further reinforced by a principle of identity and belonging. Latacunga and Ambato are small cities with the aeronautical organizations located nearby. In this scenario, the innovation projects of the bigger actors are the driving force of innovation for the other organizations. Several examples in 2021 demonstrate that fact. For the new DIAF motor overhaul facility, some local companies from automotive and construction industry contribute to the design of the test benches required to implement. The air force has a strategic plan to reinforce aeronautical capabilities supported by offset projects and technology transfer, collaboration and international cooperation between the aeronautical industries of friendly countries. In this framework, the local aeronautical organizations were invited to reinforce the technological capabilities of R + D + i as suppliers of collaborators. Finally, CIDFAE in Ambato generated an interinstitutional cooperation agreement with the local government of the province of Tungurahua to contribute to research, development and innovation. Under this agreement, specialized laboratories from local companies are used to generate tests and parts for aeronautical prototypes. Therefore, the innovation in the regional center is not be concentrated in a single organization but groups that make up companies from different sectors, academic institutions and other organizations.

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Table 20.1 Collaboration resources Air force

Aeronautic industry

Research center Academic institutions

Local industry

Air force

x

Specialized equipment

Composite material analysis

Patent methodology

Logistic support

Aeronautic industry

Specialized tools for non-routine works

x

Engineering studies

Specialized laboratories

Non-certified goods and services

Research center

Aircrafts for prototype testing

NDT tests

x

Research teams

Mechanic structures

Academic institutions

Operation work Specialized experience work experience

Engineering work experience

x

Industrial test

Local industry

Non-regulated services

Non-regulated works

Specialized laboratories

x

Logistic support

20.5.5 Collaboration of Organizations The management approach in the industry focuses on the administration of knowledge, innovation and technology and the creation of value, through cooperation networks that companies can establish with their own or external resources. The evolution of the scenario starting from the geographically concentrated clusters, which are deconcentrated with some organizations or individual actors locating in areas far from the original cluster, allows establishing opportunities for emerging countries that do not have a high technological infrastructure of the cluster. For small and medium enterprises, the lack of resources (lost skills, patents, technologies) [6] are drivers of collaboration between entities that compete with each other. For the aeronautical companies in the central region is required sharing information, knowledge exchange, grouping of complex technologies and capacities. Furthermore, in the case of SMEs, additional drivers are the redundancy of resources (available production capacity, unused storage, machines not fully exploited) and the need to increase bargaining power (by increasing the production capacity or increase in orders) (Table 20.1).

20.6 Conclusion The case of aeronautical industry development in Ecuador is presented with a framework of five factors: industry structure, investment, geographic location, innovation structures and collaboration of organizations. Under these factors, the central region

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is considered as an industrial conglomeration in an early stage of development. There are informal links and collaboration networks that require special attention. Based in expert concepts, the region has opportunities to develop and overcome the lack of government policies to promote the industry. The case presents alternatives for the development of aeronautical industry when there are several organizations in a same territory but remains limited in terms of representativeness and potential bias of the informants, related to the industrial, governmental or academic approach of the data obtained as well as by the sector or geographical location from which the primary information is obtained. The collaboration of actors in the early stage of a cluster requires special attention. Therefore, a management model must establish the approach that prioritizes considering the external environment so as not to isolate it in a single context. Then, the development of the aeronautical industry in emerging countries requires special attention.

References 1. Benzler, G., Wink, R.: From agglomerations to technology- and knowledge driven clusters: aeronautics cluster policies in Europe. Int. J. Technol. Manage. 50(3–4), 318–336 (2010) 2. Blanvillain, S., Hurard, C., Mazari, B., Degres, S.: On knowledge usage and innovation in aeronautics clusters management. J. Innovation Impact 7(1), 177–190 (2014) 3. Brem, A.: Frugal innovation-past, present, and future. IEEE Eng. Manage. Rev. 45(3), 37–41 (2017) 4. de Freitas Dewes, M., Dalmarco, G., Padula, A.D.: Innovation policies in Brazilian and Dutch aerospace industries: how sectors driven by national procurement are influenced by its S&T environment. Space Policy 34, 32–38 (2015). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S026596461530014X 5. Hassen, T.B., Klein, J.-L., Trembly, D.-G.: Interorganizational relations, proximity, and innovation : the case of the aeronautics sector in Montreal Tarek Ben Hassen Centre de Recherche Sur Les innovations Sociales Université Du Québec à Montréal Juan-Luis Klein geography department and centre D. Can. J. Urban Res. 21(1), 52–78 (2012) 6. Klimas, P.: Organizational culture and coopetition: an exploratory study of the features, models and role in the polish aviation industry. Ind. Mark. Manage. 53, 91–102 (2016). https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.indmarman.2015.11.012 7. Kornuta, D., et al.: Commercial lunar propellant architecture: a collaborative study of lunar propellant production. REACH 13, 100026 (2019). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/art icle/pii/S2352309318300099 8. Lucena-Piquero, D., Vicente, J.: The visible hand of cluster policy makers: an analysis of aerospace valley (2006–2015) using a place-based network methodology. Res. Policy 48(3), 830–842 (2019) 9. Monge-González, R.: Política de Desarrollo de Clústeres Para Costa Rica Agenda Para Aumentar Los Encadenamientos Productivos, La Capacidad de Innovación y La Productividad de Las Empresas 1 (2016). (January 2016). https://www.researchgate.net/profile/ Ricardo_Monge-Gonzalez3/publication/318215811_Politica_de_Desarrollo_de_Clusteres_ para_Costa_Rica_Agenda_para_aumentar_los_encadenamientos_productivos_la_capaci dad_de_innovacion_y_la_productividad_de_las_empresas/links 10. Morante, D.: Tecnología e Innovación En El Diseno de Un Modelo de Gestion Para El Desarrollo Del Cluster Valle Del Cauca. Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro (2016)

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11. Moser, R., Heiko A., Von der Gracht, Gnatzy, T.: The Indian aerospace industry 2019 an analysis of the political, technological and economic conditions. (February 2016) 1–43 (2010) 12. Patil, P.S.: An aviation industry overview : maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) strategies and fundamentals in India 4(4) (2015) 13. Rodríguez-Segura, E., Ortiz-Marcos, I., Romero, J.J., Tafur-Segura, J.: Critical success factors in large projects in the aerospace and defense sectors. J. Bus. Res. 69(11), 5419–5425 (2016). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296316303526 14. Sarpong, D., AbdRazak, A., Alexander, E., Meissner, D.: Organizing practices of university, industry and government that facilitate (or Impede) the transition to a hybrid triple helix model of innovation. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 123, 142–152 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1016/j. techfore.2015.11.032 15. Schneider, S., Spieth, P., Clauss, T.: Business model innovation in the aviation industry. Int. J. Prod. Dev. 18(3–4), 286–310 (2013) 16. Secretaría Nacional de Planificación y Desarrollo (SENPLADES). Modelo Macro de Transferencia de Tecnología Para El Ecuador 48 (2014). http://www.planificacion.gob.ec/wp-con tent/uploads/downloads/2014/11/Modelo-Macro-de-Transferencia-de-Tecnología-para-elEcuador.pdf 17. Speldekamp, D., Knoben, J., Saka-Helmhout, A.: Clusters and firm-level innovation: a configurational analysis of agglomeration, network and institutional advantages in European Aerospace. Res. Policy 49(3), 103921 (2020). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S0048733320300019 18. Vuletic, T., et al.: Improving the creation and management of collaborative networks within the European maritime sector. J. Ind. Inf. Integr. 8, 22–37 (2017). https://www.sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S2452414X1630084X 19. Wirths, O.: Business model innovation in the aerospace industry: strategic options for maintenance, repair, and overhaul, 376 (2019)

Chapter 21

Public Procurement Challenges in the Portuguese Gendarmerie Force: The Division into Lots Regime Paulo Aires , Luís Malheiro , and Edgar Bogas

Abstract This article focuses on the study of the adjudication into lots regime, located in article 46º-A of the current version of the Portuguese Public Contracts’ Code. The purpose is to analyze the main challenges of the application of the regime itself as well as its connection with the figure of the contract manager and with the shared services in the public administration, within the scope of public procurement at a Portuguese gendarmerie, named Guarda Nacional Republicana (GNR). It followed a deductive methodology, through bibliographic research, analysis of institutional documents, and several pre-contractual procedures. It is also based upon a mixed investigation strategy, through a survey and interviews. The densification of the gathered arguments allows establishing that in regard to the regime itself, there are multiple challenges. In addition to the intrinsic peculiarities of the contractual object types in question, this study underlines the questions associated with the economic impacts and the influence of the territorial dispersion of the GNR in the adoption of the adjudication into lots regime. It is also concluded that it is relevant to create a structure dedicated to contract management if it constitutes an added value for the entity. Within the scope of the shared services, the regime presents itself as a facilitating tool in several procedures, having an aggregating or disaggregating role, depending on the adopted division. The figure under study, despite having some limitations and difficulties inherent to its complexity, will result in relevant contributions in all analyzed aspects.

P. Aires (B) · E. Bogas Guarda Nacional Republicana (Portuguese Gendarmerie), Lisboa, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] E. Bogas e-mail: [email protected] L. Malheiro Centro de Investigação Desenvolvimento e Inovação da Academia Militar, Academia Militar, Instituto Universitário Militar, Rua Gomes Freire, 1669-203 Lisboa, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_21

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21.1 Introduction The first version of the Public Contract Code (PCC) was approved by the DecreeLaw No. 18/2008 on the January 29, where the legislator had the intent to create pre-contractual procedures that came close to the European directives. The “division into lots” figure was already in this previous regulation, enabling the disaggregation of an object into several parts, each one considered a single lot. The 2014/24/EU Directive changed the paradigm concerning the objective of this regime. Until then, the aim was to find a solution to the division of the same object in different procedures in a way that complies with the national and European rules [31]. In this case, the objective was to allow access to the lower-sized companies that could not apply for more complex tendering processes [5]. After the publication of the Decree-Law No. 111-B/2017 on the 31st of August, there were multiple changes to PCC. The decision whether a contract should be divided or not was no longer just an option in certain cases. Dividing into lots, in the cases of acquiring goods, services, or works, now appears as a pondering duty, or in some cases, as an obligation, if there is not a plausible justification to decide in other ways. Consequently, this division allows the existence of greater competition between companies, where, for example, there are markets with a concentrated structure [26]. In this diploma, it was also introduced the contract manager figure, which was qualified as an essential element to a contract, with the objective of permanent control to its execution [21]. This way, if one procedure can be materialized in several adjudications, consequently, there can be many contracts associated with it [13]. For this reason, it is important to study the relation between the contract management and the adjudication into lots regime and how it affects the reality of GNR. Following the modernization of the public purchases, a shared services (SS) model was adopted, through the implementation of a grid system. This system obliges to the acquisition and central contracting of goods and services transversal to the Public Administration (PA) [10]. Considering that GNR is included in this system, it is also relevant to study the relation of shared services with the figure under analysis.

21.2 Materials and Methods Firstly, a central question (CQ) that allows an adequate planning to accordingly guide the investigation must be formulated: Which are the main challenges to the application of the adjudication into lots regime in GNR? To answer this question, [28] derived questions (DQ) were defined to aid fulfilling it: DQ1—what are the factors that influence the adoption of the adjudication into lots regime? DQ2—how can the human resources be redistributed considering the inherent complexities to contract management? DQ3—what is the potential behind the application of adjudication into lots regime in shared services?

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After defining these questions, data collection was gathered through interviews, a questionnaire survey, and a literature review based on the areas under study. The present investigation is based on a deductive method [12]. Moreover, the research strategy was mixed [32]. The universe of the questionnaire survey is composed by the military personnel who performed functions under the area of PP. In total, 76 military men were inquired, with a total of 60 valid responses (equalizing a rate of response of 79%). The interviews were done in a non-probabilistic way [27]. The selection of subjects was divided into internal roles (inside GNR) and external entities. Internally, by their role in GNR, namely: Head of the Logistic Direction, Head of the supply Division; Ex-Head and Head of Procurement Division; and Head of sector of Contracts and Tenders. Externally, some entities were also interviewed: Coordinator of the Center for Planning and Management of the National Public Procurement System, Director of Services at Ministerial Purchasing Unit, Head of Programming Division of Infrastructure and Equipment, and Head of Contracts Division from the Polícia de Segurança Pública (Portuguese civilian police). A total of eight interviews were made to key actors working in high-ranking positions in the field of PP in several Portuguese institutions and analyzed accordingly.

21.3 Results 21.3.1 Public Procurement Public procurement (PP) is seen as a supply system by the Public Administrative Sector, and its regulation is vital for the pursuit of public policies in the fight against corruption [4]. According to data from the European Commission (EC), PP represents 14% of the European Union’s (EU) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), corresponding to a value equivalent to 2 trillion euros [9]. In the Portuguese context, in 2020, the value of PP represents 5.84% of the GDP [25]. The number of contracts and its total value in the last few years have been increasing (Table 21.1). Since its publication, the PCC is regarded has an innovative effort to satisfy needs in terms of PP, reducing the options regarding the pre-contractual procedures so Table 21.1 Public procurement in Portugal in the period of 2017–2020

Year

Total value of contracts (millions e)

Total number of contracts (thousands)

2017

6250.93

126

2018

7366.16

121

2019

8878.57

145

2020

11,829.56

141

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that only one diploma regulates rigorously most of the contractual aspects in the public sector [6]. The State and the PA buy through the market with the objective of obtaining the means to fulfill their missions [13]. To reach this point, the formulation of public contracts needs to consider the promotion of the access to PP so that it reaches every interested entity [19]. This legislation defined that those public entities shall treat economic operators equally and without discrimination and must act in a transparent and proportionate manner. The design of the procurement was not done with the intention of excluding it from the European legislation objectives, nor to artificially narrow the competition (the competition needs to be artificially narrowed where the design of the procurement is made with the intention of unduly favoring or disfavoring certain economic operators). Member states must take appropriate measures to ensure that in the elaboration of public contracts, economic operators comply with applicable obligations in the fields of environmental, social, and labor law established by union law, national law, collective agreements, or the international environmental, social, and labor law provisions listed in Annex X of de Directive 2014/24/EU. In some member states, the public procurement has a central role in public expenditure reduction, mainly through central purchasing (goods and services) under public tender for framework agreement.

21.3.2 Contract Management Managing the development of the emerging legal relationship between the public contract and the responsibilities of the candidate in its execution presents itself as a duty for the contracting authorities [29, 33]. Therefore, the presence of a figure that promotes the correct and timely execution of the contract, to avoid errors or deviations, is necessary so that it does not result in damaging the public interest [24]. At the international level, through the 2014/24/EU Directive and the 2014/25/EU Directive, the objective was to improve and professionalize the management of public contracts. Afterward, it was verified that a more professionalized and efficient PP could result in economic benefits for the whole economy [9]. In Portugal, the idea of needing a manager to monitor and control the contract, in order to give it an appropriate organization, execution, and functionality, was already proposed by the Court of Auditors (CA), prior to the legal consecration of the contract manager [7]. This professionalization was achieved with the introduction of the contract manager, as explained in article 290º-A of Decree-Law No. 111-B/2017 of the 31st of August. In this diploma, after its preamble, the contract manager figure was highlighted, with the premise of a permanent monitoring of the contract execution and the increase of its execution quality. The figure needs to be approached carefully, since in some situations, it is not as explicit as it should be [21]. The inexistence of limitations in the PCC concerning the designation of a contract manager regarding the minimum values of the contract or the skills that a contract manager needs to have to correctly execute his job is not clear, causing possible misleading interpretations of the Code [13]. Another problem is signaled related to the idea of outsourcing this

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figure, being unclear if it can or cannot be done by the entity celebrating a procedure and designating the respective contract manager [21]. However, the ultimate objective of having a contract manager is clear and has direct impact on the development of the contractual relationship between both parties in a procedure, so it is of utmost importance to give further analysis to the contract manager figure and overcome these obstacles [22]. Regarding the adjudication into lots regime, a contractual object can be tendered by multiple entities (one entity per lot), resulting in several contracts [5]. Consequently, if each contract has its own contract manager, there may exist as many contract managers as there are contracts with each economic operator. According to Pinto [23], on an institutional level, a structural readjustment is a must, with the objective of dealing with the inherent needs of the contractual activity.

21.3.3 Adjudication into Lots Regime The adjudication into lots regime is characterized as being the division of contracts with large objects in the form of separate lots. This economic, political, and legal instrument allows greater access to PP by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), while promoting competition [31]. Concomitantly, the adjudication of lots offers a restrictive side to large contracts with a single economic operator, giving the opportunity to divide the contractual object in an appropriate way, in order to satisfy the public interest [29]. This regime suffered significant modifications over the years to accommodate the increasing needs of the SME in the markets [5]. There are many challenges among the usage of this figure, generally following the typology of the contract object [26], like the increase of costs by having multiple contracts with different entities [8] or the possible manipulation of the market (e.g., when there are more lots to adjudicate than competitors) [11]. Furthermore, this regime might tempt the entities to try and fraction the expenses, concurring in an illegality. Whenever an acquisition is being planned, the entity must consider the correct procedure to aggregate the totality of the contract [30]. Regarding the specific example of GNR, many procedures have been made using the adjudication into lots regime, after the publication of the Decree-Law No. 111B/2017 on the 31st of August (Table 21.2). Table 21.2 Public tendering made by GNR between 2017 and 2020 using the adjudication into lots regime Year

Percentage of public acquisitions adjudicated using lots (%)

2017

57.1

Total of contracts 7

2018

52.0

22

2019

56.8

37

2020

40.0

28

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Temporally, the discrepancies are not too significative since many procedures are regular needs in GNR [14–16]. During the period of 2017–2019, more than half of the public contracts were made through the usage of the adjudication into lots regime, which indicates a strong preference for this figure. In 2020, there is a drop in these percentages to 40% (16.8% less than 2019). This can be explained by analyzing specifically each public tender made in 2020. In fact, in that year, some procedures were sent back to GNR after failing to be executed in the ministry sector, resulting in the dilution of this percentage.

21.3.4 Shared Services Shared services (SS) translate essentially in a collaborative strategy, where the existing organizations are concentrated in a new structure that promotes principles like efficiency, economy, and creation of value [3]. On the one hand, it is the optimization of human resources, capital, and time, since it is fundamental for the public sector to find proper solutions regarding the available resources [34]. On the other hand, the implementation of SS reduces considerably the accounting management of the several entities, making it possible to exist an interaction only between one supplier and one client [17]. Consequently, the consolidation/concentration of functions reduces or even eliminates the duplication of processes, going toward the principles mentioned before [1]. The reduction of costs and the bigger competition in acquisition prices are also seen as an advantage to the adoption of SS [2]. Concerning the organizational structure, the institutions need to suffer major changes, as well as creating better internal practices, toward the complete integration of SS [20]. In Portugal, SS has been introduced and developed over many years, since its genesis to the present days (Table 21.3). Recently, in the context of the forces and services of safety, the internal decision No. 6141/2020 proceeded to create a working taskforce for the SS, with the objective of integrating and normalizing good practices in logistical and economical processes under the judging of the Internal Administration Ministry. This way, efforts are being made to a more efficient management of the public resources though tools that add value [18].

21.4 Discussion After analyzing the collected data, the following chapter will address the DQ. The DQ1 (What are the factors that influence the adoption of the adjudication into lots regime?) allows the understanding that the division into lots regime has direct economic impacts that can result into budget benefits for GNR. The fact that there is a bigger access to the procedures from the economic operators will result in advantageous prices for the entity. Choosing to distribute the lots geographically will

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Table 21.3 Evolution of shared services in Portugal Constitutional government Legislative advances

Impacts on shared services

XV (2002–2004)

• Resolution of the Ministry Council No. 95/2003, in 30th of July • Law No. 4/2004, in 15 of January • Resolution of the Ministry Council No. 53/2004, in 21st of April

Projection of SS in terms of highlighting the necessity of efficient resource management, aggregating transversal functions

XVII (2005–2009)

• Resolution of the Ministry Council No. 124/2005, in 4th of August • Resolution of the Ministry Council No. 39/2006, in 21st of April • Decree-Law No. 25/2007, in 7th of February • Decree-Law No. 37/2007, in 19th of February

Measures oriented to the genesis of SS, through the creation of the National Agency of Public Acquisitions and the Company of Shared Resources Management in the Public Administration

XIX (2011–2015)

• Decree-Law No. 117-A/2012, in 14th of June

Consolidation of SS through the creation of the Shared Services Entity for the Public Administration (SSEPA)

XXI (2015–2019)

• Resolution of the Ministry Legislative increment in SS, Council No. 78/2017, in 6th of through the centralization of the June energy sector in SSEPA

also contribute to an economic advantage, since local businesses can propose more competitive prices. However, to avoid the fact that some lots might not get tendered, there must be an adequate division of the contract’s object or else, in consequence, more procedures must be made, which adds costs. The fact that dividing into lots might also jeopardize the quantity discounts that exist when adjudicating a single contract procedure also results in a negative economic impact. In terms of the geographical factor, usually, using the adjudication into lots regime will represent an added value to GNR, since it covers 94% of the national territory, through district presence and autonomous regions (two islands). Its application is advantageous in the cases where the object concerned can be tendered under almost identical conditions throughout the territory. Regarding the application of the regime itself, there are many factors that influence its adoption, such as the specifics of the good or the service to acquire, the cases of the public works, and the limitations or difficulties that arise by using this regime. It was stated previously that the object is preponderant in the way of choosing how to use this regime; however, there are other considerations that are relevant. It is verified that more contracts with the usage of this figure should be made, where it is possible to optimize the procedures with its adoption, in both goods and services. In the specific case of public works, it should be avoided due to the difficulty in

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determining responsibilities and possible associated litigations that might come from it. Despite that, in some planned and specific cases, it can be also applied. In terms of the constraints, in addition to financial issues, this regime presents a greater administrative burden to the entity, multiplying the tasks to be carried out at a procedural level. Regarding the DQ2 (How can the human resources be redistributed considering the inherent complexities to contract management?), it is concluded that both in the questionnaire survey and the interviews, the responses state that GNR will benefit from a central organic unit/structure dedicated to contract management. The public interest cannot be jeopardized by the negative consequences of the operator’s poor performance. Even if the adjudication into lots regime or any other type of option in relation to forming a contract is adopted, it must be given emphasis to the correct execution of the responsibilities entrusted to the contract manager. Centralized monitoring of contracts is suggested, with local support links. In this way, the aid, through its monitorization and local control, will allow a more efficient management at a central level, in the cases where the contract is being executed in several parts of the country. It is also emphasized that different contracts may require professionals with different technical skills, so there must be a balance in choosing the right person for this type of function. Thus, through the questionnaire survey, it was attempted to understand if the technical skills of the military personnel who perform functions in the PP area would be the ideal. It appears that basic education on this matter was not adequate to perform functions in this area and that the majority also considered that there is a lack of human resources to deal with issues related to PP. However, there is a constant search for improvement of the technical skills necessary for the proper execution of these functions. Concerning the DQ3 (What is the potential behind the application of adjudication into lots regime in shared services?), this figure presents itself as a facilitating tool in terms of PP in the SS level. The possibility to use the adjudication into lots regime in an aggregating and disaggregating way in several procedures, considering the situation, will result in multiple advantages for all involved entities, which includes GNR. In terms of PP, aggregating procedures work in a way that including the needs of multiple entities into a lot will result in an added value, considering the quantity discount (e.g., a smaller entity needs can be added to the needs of a bigger entity). In terms of disaggregating, it allows the disaggregation of the procedures with a unique contract, where each lot can represent each adjudicating entity. It appears that despite the applications with beneficial results for all entities, with direct consequences for the PA, in the case of GNR, the focus should remain in the contract object, since there are some cases which have been transferred back to the entity after the same procedures were centralized within the Shared Services Entity for the Public Administration and the Direction of Services of the Ministerial Unity of Acquisitions from the Internal Administration Ministry.

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21.5 Conclusion The present research was conducted in response to the question “which are the main challenges to the application of the adjudication into lots regime in GNR?”. To answer such question, firstly, it must be identified three different involving layers: the local level; the central level, where the centralized acquisitions are made; and the SS, concerning the public acquisitions. At the local level, it is concluded that there are many difficulties in adopting this regime, regarding aspects such as the lack of know-how or the object of the contract itself. In these cases, most of the procedures do not reach the necessary minimum to ponder this regime or its usage is not the best solution. The monitoring and control of the local contractual execution in the lots are an added value, since they will help the contract manager, as a link of support. Centrally, it is verified that the majority of the procedures are made using the adjudication into lots regime, which are regular needs for the GNR in the temporal aspect. It is given emphasis to the optimized search when pondering its use, even though several challenges were identified in the division into lots context: the economic impacts, the geographical aspect, the typology of goods and services to acquire, and the specific cases of infrastructure works. The need to create a unique structure dedicated to the contract management is also concluded, if it remains an added value to the entity itself, in this case, GNR. There must exist an appropriate academic component in the area of PP to the personnel and a correct allocation of human resources to give efficient answers to the inherent complexities of the contract manager. Regarding the SS, there are permanent challenges in the correct usage of this tool. Although there are many cases of success in the adjudication into lots context in SS, some situations resulted in procedures that were sent back to GNR, since it could not be properly handled. The theme to centralize in SS must be seen with parsimony and not as constituting a general solution for any and every problem faced by the forces and services of safety in Portugal.

References 1. Aksin, O.Z., Masini, A.: Effective strategies for internal outsourcing and offshoring of business services: an empirical investigation. J. Oper. Manag. 26(2), 239–256 (2008) 2. Becker, J., Niehaves, B., Krause, A.: Shared services strategies and their determinants: a multiple case study analysis in the public sector. Paper presented at Americas Conference on Information Systems, London, 6–9 Aug 2009 3. Bergeron, B.: Essentials of Shared Services. Wiley, Hoboken (2003) 4. Bovis, C.: The Liberalisation of Public Procurement and Its Effects on the Common Market. Routledge, London (2019) 5. Coimbra, J.: A adjudicação por lotes no CCP revisto. In Gomes, C., Pedro, R., Serrão, T., Caldeira, M.: Comentários à revisão do Código dos Contratos Públicos, 3rd edn., pp. 459–549. AAFDL Editora, Lisbon (2019)

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6. Correia, J.: A revisão das disposições gerais sobre o âmbito de aplicação do código dos contratos públicos. e-Pública: Revista Eletrónica de Direito Público. 4(2), 4–20 (2017). Available online in https://epublica.pt/article/34406. Acessed 10 Mar 2021 7. Court of Auditors (CA): Auditoria a empreendimentos de obras públicas por gestão direta— Conclusões e Recomendações do Tribunal de Contas. In: Court of Auditors Platform (2009). Available in https://www.tcontas.pt/pt-pt/ProdutosTC/Relatorios/RelatoriosAuditoria/ Documents/2009/rel017-2009-2s.pdf. Accessed on 20 Feb 2021 8. Egeberg, S.H.: Division into lots and SME participation in public procurement. Master’s thesis. Master’s in Law School. University of Bergen, Bergen (2016) 9. European Comission (CE): Recomendation (EU): 2017/1805 of the Comission, in 3 of October of 2017, about the professionalization of Public Procurement. In: European Comission Website (2017). Available online in https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/PT/TXT/PDF/?uri= CELEX:32017H1805andfrom=EN. Accessed on 28 Jan 2021 10. Garcia, M.: Serviços Partilhados nas Compras Públicas: Dilemas Derivados da Eficiência. Masters thesis. ISCTE—Lisbon University Institute, Lisbon, Portugal (2018) 11. Giosa, P.A.: Division of public contracts into lots and bid rigging. Eur. Procure. Public Priv. Partnersh. Law Rev. 13(1), 30–38 (2018) 12. Given, L.M.: The Sage Encyclopedia of Qualitative Research Methods. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks (2008) 13. Gonçalves, P.: Direito dos Contratos Públicos, 4th edn. Almedina, Coimbra (2020) 14. Guarda Nacional Republicana (GNR): Management Instruments: Activities Report in 2017 (2018). Available online in https://www.gnr.pt/InstrumentosGestao/2017/RA2017.pdf. Accessed 20 Feb 2021 15. Guarda Nacional Republicana (GNR): Management Instruments: Activities Report in 2018 (2019). Available online in https://www.gnr.pt/InstrumentosGestao/2018/RA_GNR_2018.pdf. Accessed 21 Feb 2021 16. Guarda Nacional Republicana (GNR): Management Instruments: Activities Report in 2019 (2020). Available online in https://www.gnr.pt/InstrumentosGestao/2019/ra_gnr%202019_vf. pdf. Accessed 25 Feb 2021 17. Herbert, I., Seal, W.: Shared services as a new organisational form: some implications for management accounting. Br. Account. Rev. 44(2), 83–97 (2012) 18. Internal Administration Ministry (IAM): Regulation No. 6141/2020 in 08 of June: Cria um grupo de trabalho para os serviços partilhados no âmbito da integração, normalização e boas práticas nos processos financeiros e logísticos da tutela do Ministério da Administração Interna. In: Diário da República, vol. 111, 1st edn., pp. 21–22 (2020) 19. Inês, P.: Os Princípios da Contratação Pública: O Príncipio da Concorrência. Masters Thesis, Masters in the Specialization Area of Public Procurement, University of Law, University of Coimbra, Coimbra (2017) 20. Janssen, M., Joha, A.: Motives for establishing shared service centers in public administrations. Int. J. Inf. Manage. 26(2), 102–115 (2006) 21. Matos, S.: Gestor do contrato: um olhar sobre o esboço de regime legal da nova figura. In: Gomes, C., Pedro, R., Serrão, T., Caldeira, M.: Comentários à revisão do Código dos Contratos Públicos, 3rd edn., pp. 1173–1196. AAFDL Editora, Lisbon (2019) 22. Pietro, E.: A figura do gestor dos contratos públicos como bastião para o movimento de profissionalização da contratação pública em Portugal. Master’s thesis. Political-Law Sciences, University of Coimbra, Coimbra (2018) 23. Pinto, M.O: Gestor de Contrato na GNR: qualificações e critérios de nomeação. Applied Investigation Work, Masters in Military Management of Guarda Nacional Republicana, Academia Militar, Lisboa (2020) 24. Public Markets, Housing and Construction Institute (PMHCI): Orientação Técnica 03/CCP/2019—Adjudicação por lote. In: Portal Base: Public Contracts Online. IMPIC, Lisboa (2019). Available in https://www.impic.pt/impic/assets/misc/img/circulares_informacoes/Ori entacaoTecnicaIMPIC_03CCP2019.pdf. Accessed in 30 Nov 2020

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25. Public Markets, Housing and Construction Institute (PMHCI): Relatório anual de contratação pública em Portugal 2019. In: Portal Base: Public Contracts Online (2020). Available in https://www.base.gov.pt/base4/media/w5adtmas/relat%C3%B3rio-con trata%C3%A7%C3%A3o-p%C3%BAblica-2019.pdf. Accessed in 06 Apr 2021 26. Raimundo, M.: Dever de ponderação da adjudicação por lotes e dever de fundamentação da não divisão no direito dos contratos públicos. e-Públ. Rev. Eletrón. Direito Públ. 4(2), 21–46 (2017) 27. Rosado, D.P.: Elementos essenciais de Sociologia Geral. Gradiva, Lisbon (2017) 28. Salkind, N.J. (ed.): Encyclopedia of Research Design. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks (2010) 29. Silva, J.: Dicionário dos Contratos Públicos, 2nd edn. Almedina, Coimbra (2018) 30. Social Inclusion and Job Operational Program (SIJOP): Guia da Contratação Pública. In: Social Inclusion and Job Operational Program (2020). Available in https://poise.portugal2020. pt/documents/10180/104010/guidance_public_procurement_2018_pt.pdf/b0d68b4f-dd484138-b70b-16bcd03ac5b8. Accessed in 16 Feb 2021 31. Sousa, L.: Algumas notas sobre a adjudicação por lotes. e-Públ. Rev. Eletrón. Direito Públ. 4(2), 67–86 (2017) 32. Tashakkori, A., Creswell, J.W.: The new era of mixed methods. J. Mixed Methods Res. 1(1), 3–7 (2007) 33. Teixeira, A.: Gestor do contrato: uma mão cheia de deveres. Rev. Juríd. Digit. 6(8), 431–442 (2018) 34. Ulbrich, F.: Adopting shared services in a public-sector organization. Transform. Gov. People Process Policy 4(3), 249–265 (2010)

Chapter 22

Factors of Tax Culture Predicting the Compliance of the Tax Obligations of the Micro-enterprises Beatriz Baylon-Gonzales , Karina Vega-Rosales , and Ivan Iraola-Real

Abstract Low tax collection is result of the lack of commitment from taxpayers with respect to the compliance of their tax obligations. That is why the research analyzes which tax culture elements (tax knowledge, tax awareness and tax education) predict efficient compliance with tax obligations. A questionnaire was applied to 50 micro-entrepreneurs belonging to single simplified regime. This demonstrated that of the three elements, only tax awareness and tax education positively predict compliance with tax obligations unlike tax knowledge that predicts a negative influence in compliance with tax obligations, which leads us to conclude that tax culture is necessary to increase intrinsic motivation of taxpayers regarding the compliance of their tax obligations.

22.1 Introduction Taxes are mandatory payments without consideration made to the central government [1] in the sense that the government does not return any direct service that is related to said payment [2]. Due to this, taxpayers do not identify themselves with tax obligations compliance, causing low collection and increased tax evasion [3]. This is demonstrated in a research carried out by the Superintendency of Tax Administration, which shows the lack of commitment on the part of the taxpayer and their propensity to fraud, where it was found that 54% of people state that they are very tolerant of fraud, 25% a little tolerant and 21% intolerant [4]. B. Baylon-Gonzales (B) · K. Vega-Rosales · I. Iraola-Real Economic and Financial Faculty and Humanities and Social Sciences Faculty, Universidad de Ciencias y Humanidades, Lima, Peru e-mail: [email protected] K. Vega-Rosales e-mail: [email protected] I. Iraola-Real e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_22

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Colombia Bahamas

18.7 18.2

Antigua y Barbuda Peru

16.6

Mexico

16.5

Panama

14.1

Paraguay

13.9 13.5

Dominican Republic Guatemala

13.1

Central America and Mexico South America Caribbean

%0

5

10

15

Fig. 22.1 Tax collection (total tax income as % of GDP) in LAC countries, 2019. Adapted from OCDE [1]

With regard to tax collection, different international cooperation organizations have carried out studies evaluating tax collection levels on GDP in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, where Peru ranks sixth with 16.6% of total tax income, as shown in Fig. 22.1 [5]. In Peru, getting taxpayers to comply with their tax commitments constitutes a great challenge, not only improving tax education strategies, which is a tool that allows the construction of a tax culture [6], but also taking into account the tax programs for those taxpayers who are no longer in schools or go through universities [7]. It can be seen that in a tax environment where it is sought to strengthen the tax culture of taxpayers, several elements intervene that influence the taxpayer, and without hesitation, they will influence the compliance of their tax obligations. Some of the mentioned elements are: tax knowledge, tax awareness and tax education of the taxpayer [7–9]. Figure 22.2 shows the relation between tax culture, its elements and tax compliance. When analyzing these elements, it is evident that a taxpayer, who aspires to enter the market with a commercial activity, must keep them in mind as tax knowledge about their tax obligations will ensure compliance with them [10, 11]. Knowledge is considered one of the most valuable intangible assets that human beings have [12]; it is a mixed flow of experiences, values and “know-how” [13], associated with tax matters, and it is understood as the delivery of money to the state in order to guarantee the welfare of citizens [14]. Tax awareness is related to the voluntary attitude of complying with tax obligations without using coercive measures. However, it has become one of the most complicated challenges to achieve [9, 15] since the taxpayer’s negative perception toward the state and the lack of preventive control make them justify their actions. A clear example is observed in the researches’ results carried out by the InterAmerican Center for Tax Administration (CIAT, in Spanish) where more than a third of those consulted oppose paying taxes, invoking a group of reasons to which we

22 Factors of Tax Culture Predicting the Compliance of the Tax Obligations …

Tax

265

Tax Compliance

Culture

Coercion

Tax Awareness

Tax Knowledge

Tax Guidance

Traditional Forms of Induction to compliance

Fig. 22.2 Relation between tax culture, its elements and tax compliance. Adapted from SUNAT [7]

choose to denominate conditional cooperation such as “I do not want to give money in exchange for nothing”, “others do not pay either”, “others do it and it is not necessary for me to do it”, “nobody forces me to do it” [16]. Finally, taxpayer’s education is provided by the agents in charge of administering taxes, who, through their different means of customer service, try to support the concerns that they have regarding the compliance of their tax obligations [17]; the mechanisms they use to guide the taxpayer must be simple, practical and efficient. For these reasons, this research aims to identify the factors of the tax culture that predict adequate compliance with tax obligations of micro-entrepreneurs in the district of San Juan de Lurigancho, Lima, Peru.

22.2 Materials 22.2.1 Sample For the selection of participants, a non-probabilistic convenience method was used [18]. The participants are micro-entrepreneurs who have businesses in the district of San Juan de Lurigancho, Lima, Peru. To do this, 50 taxpayers were chosen, of which 15 (30%) belong to the bakery sector, 20 (40%) are grocery stores and 15 are bookstores (30%). In addition, 100% of the micro-enterprises belong to the single simplified regime (RUS, in Spanish), which in Peru is the basic regime for taxation where their tax obligations are to pay income taxes for trade and issue payment vouchers.

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22.3 Method The research has a quantitative approach [19] and an explicative predictive level [20]. This type of research allows us to explain which elements of the tax culture are the ones that predict a positive attitude of the taxpayer to comply with their tax obligations. It is a cross-sectional research.

22.3.1 Survey The technique used is the survey [21], whose instrument is the Likert scale questionnaire. The scales are self-made; they went through a validation process by expert judgment in 2020. In addition, the scale that was taken into account for the instruments was the following: “never” (1), “almost never” (2), “sometimes” (3), “almost always” (4) and “always” (5). The validation of both scales has been carried out using the Keyser–Meyer–Olkin (KMO) test and the Bartlett’s test sphericity, and the reliability has been determined through Cronbach’s alpha. It was considered appropriate that each criterion has at least three items, which are the minimum adequate quantity for the analysis of the internal consistency method of Cronbach’s alpha [22], thus achieving appropriate reliability coefficient with 0.70 or 0.60 values or more [23]. (a) Scale of the tax culture variable The scale consists of three dimensions, distributed in nine items: Tax knowledge (three items) refers to how much taxpayers know about tax obligations [10, 11, 14]. The second is tax awareness dimension (three items), in which it refers to the taxpayer’s conviction for voluntary compliance with their obligations [9, 14, 15]. Finally, the tax education dimension (three items) will allow knowing the rapprochement level of the audit entity with the taxpayer [14, 17]. The validation of the scale is shown in Table 22.1, as well as the reliability of each one of the factors. (b) Scale of the compliance with tax obligations’ variable. The compliance with tax obligations’ scale consists of six items, through which information is collected on the substantial and formal obligations that the taxpayer must comply with, referring to the tax returns, issuance of payment vouchers (formal obligation) and payment of taxes (substantial obligation) [7, 9]. The validation and reliability of the scale are shown in Table 22.1.

22.3.2 Procedure First, 50 randomly selected micro-entrepreneurs were contacted. Next, they were informed of what the survey consisted of and signed an informed consent. Finally,

22 Factors of Tax Culture Predicting the Compliance of the Tax Obligations … Table 22.1 Validity and reliability of tax culture and tax obligation scales

Dimensions

Tax knowledge

Validity

267 Reliability

KMO

Test Bartlett

Cronbach

≥ 0.50

p < 0.05

≥ 0.60–0.70

0.56

0.001

0.79

Tax awareness

0.80

Tax guidance

0.62

Tax obligation

0.59

0.001

0.83

Note It can be seen that KMO is good (Field, 2009) and so is the significance (p < 0.001). In addition, according to the studies of Aiken [23], the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of the scale indicates that it is reliable when it exceeds the value of 0.60

the information was analyzed and processed in the SPSS program (V.25) in order to establish what elements of tax culture predict efficient compliance with tax obligations by taxpayers. We used Spearman’s and multiple linear regression for the statistical analysis.

22.4 Results 22.4.1 Relation Between Variables The relations between variables were analyzed according to Spearman’s Rho and using Cohen’s correlation criteria for social studies (mild, r = 0.10–0.23; moderate, r = 0.24–0.36; and strong, r = 0.37 or more) [24]. Taking these criteria into account, we proceed to carry out the respective analysis. According to the results shown in Table 22.2, it is observed that tax knowledge is related in a negative, strong and significant way (r = −0.60, p < 0.05) to compliance with tax obligations. On the other hand, it is observed that tax awareness is related in a positive, strong and significant way (r = 0.85, p < 0.001) to compliance with tax obligations, which means that the internationalization of their tax obligations will allow greater compliance with them [9]. Finally, it is observed that the tax education is related in a positive, strong and significant way (r = 0.76, p < 0.001) to compliance with tax obligations, which means that the tax administration’s assertive and efficient contact with the taxpayer to guide their processes will allow greater compliance with their tax obligations.

268 Table 22.2 Bivariate correlation between variables

B. Baylon-Gonzales et al. Variables

1

2

3

1. Tax knowledge 2. Tax awareness

0.08

3. Tax guidance

0.28

0.56***

4. Tax obligation

−0.60*

0.85***

0.76***

Note * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001 (bilateral) * equals to 95% of confidence ** equals to 99 % of confidence *** equals to 99,99% of confidence

22.4.2 Linear Regression When identifying significant relations, a multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to estimate the predictive value between the analyzed variables [20]. Thus, Table 22.3 shows that the tax knowledge dimension negatively and significantly predicts compliance with tax obligations (β = −0.60, p < 0.001). Regarding the tax awareness dimension, it positively and significantly predicts compliance with tax obligations (β = 0.85, p < 0.001); and also, the tax education dimension positively and significantly predicts compliance with tax obligations (β = 0.44, p < 0.001), observing that the three dimensions explained 97% of the variance (R2 = 0.97). Table 22.3 results indicate that taxpayers who know more about tax regulations have little intention of complying with their tax obligations. Likewise, it was evidenced that tax awareness is important to reinforce in taxpayers since this will allow taxpayers to comply with their tax obligations by conviction. Finally, it is important to highlight that tax culture’s tax education element is verified with parameters considered adequate. Table 22.3 Multiple linear regression to predict compliance with tax obligations

Predictive variables

Dependent variable Compliance with tax obligations R2 = 0.97

Tax knowledge

β = −0.60

p < 0.001

Tax awareness

β = 0.85

p < 0.001

Tax guidance

β = 0.44

p < 0.001

Note * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001 * equals to 95% of confidence ** equals to 99 % of confidence *** equals to 99,99% of confidence

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22.5 Discussions The increase in tax collection is one of the main concerns of the Latin America and Caribbean countries. To do this, the countries have created various strategies to improve the tax culture of taxpayers [5]. To achieve this, they are emphasizing the implementation of tax education programs in basic education schools and in universities [1]. Regarding the tax culture factors that have been analyzed, it has been shown that all three (tax knowledge, tax awareness and tax education) predict compliance with tax obligations in micro-entrepreneurs. From this influence, it should be noted that tax knowledge predicts a negative cause; since the more micro-entrepreneurs know about tax regulations, they are tempted to skip it and therefore do not comply with their obligations if nobody demands [4]; however, it is a necessary factor to strengthen the tax culture [10] in addition to contributing to the generation of tax awareness. Unlike the other two factors, it has been shown that both tax awareness and tax education are necessary to increase compliance with tax obligations in microentrepreneurs. That is why, through its programs, the state must reinforce values in citizens, since it will depend on it that taxpayers have a solid tax conscience, motivated to voluntarily comply with their commitments without coercive elements [9, 15]. Tax education also positively predicts that taxpayers will be more responsible in complying with their tax obligations; this is being a function of the tax administration [9]; it is in your hands to rethink the strategies that are being taken to guide the taxpayers of the single simplified regime [7] and thus be able to improve tax collection.

22.6 Conclusions Finally, the Peruvian state must continue to improve the tax culture of taxpayers to achieve more committed and aware people with the payment of their taxes in order to reduce the levels of tax evasion and achieve an increase in tax collection. Also, you must take into account that your tax education programs should not be oriented to give only technical concepts but to create citizens who are aware and committed to the development of the country. Doing this is the task not only of taxpayers but also of the state and of all those professionals committed to the progress of the country. This research proposes as future work, to analyze whether the attempts made by the Peruvian state to improve the tax culture are effective or continue to be only proposed.

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References 1. Organización para la Cooperación y Desarrollo Económico OCDE: Estadísticas tributarias en América Latina y el Caribe (Guía de interpretación) (2017) 2. Vázquez-Caro, J.: Como Influir en la Conciencia Tributaria del Contribuyente para mejorar su Comportamiento. In: 27a Asamblea General del CIAT Santiago de Chile, 19–23 de abril 1993, pp. 1–16 (1993) 3. Maguiña-Guanilo, A., Mayorca-Huané, A., Baylón-Gonzales, B.: Tax culture in the collection of municipal taxes. In: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol. 1327, pp. 112–123. AISC (2021) 4. Instituto de Administración Tributaria y Aduanera: Línea de Base de Conciencia Tributaria de las Personas Naturales en el Perú—2009. In: Cultura Tributaria, p. 200 (2010) 5. Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo, Estadísticas Tributarias en América Latina y el Caribe 2020 (2021) 6. Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo, Building Tax Culture, Compliance and Citizenship, vol. 151. OECD (2015) 7. Superintendencia de Administración Tributaria y Aduanas: Cultura Tributaria (2019). https:// www.sunat.gob.pe/institucional/culturatributaria/index.html 8. Solórzano Tapia, D.L.: La cultura tributaria, un instrumento para la evasión tributaria en el Perú. Ser. Temática Tribut., 1–100 (2011) [Online]. Available: http://bit.ly/28JWIy4 9. Bravo, F.: Los valores personales no alcanzan para explicar la conciencia tributaria: experiencia en el Perú. Rev. Adm. Tribut. CIAT/AEAT/IEF 31, 140 (2011) [Online]. Available: https://www. ciat.org/Biblioteca/Revista/Revista_31/Espanol/revista_ebook_31_2011.pdf 10. Saad, N.: Tax knowledge, tax complexity and tax compliance: taxpayers’ view. Proc. Soc. Behav. Sci. 109(1), 1069–1075 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.12.590 11. Gaber, S., Gruevski, I.: The influence of tax culture in improving the tax compliance. J. Econ. 3(2), 80–88 (2018) [Online]. Available: https://js.ugd.edu.mk/index.php/JE/article/view/2467/ 2210 12. Tsoukas, H., Vladimirou, E.: What is organizational knowledge? J. Manag. Stud. 38(7), 973– 993 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6486.00268 13. Davenport, T.H.: Working knowledge: how organizations manage what they know. Choice Rev. Online 35(09), 35-5167 (1998). https://doi.org/10.5860/CHOICE.35-5167 14. Diario Oficial El Peruano, Decreto Supremo N° 133-2013-EF. Lima, pp. 497747–497820 (2013) 15. Herrera, Y.L.: La Conciencia Tributaria en la Población de Lima Metropolitana y su Relación con el Principio de Solidaridad. Quipukamayoc 26(51), 43 (2018). https://doi.org/10.15381/ quipu.v26i51.14845 16. Hirsh, N.: La Creación y Afianzamiento del Concepto de Ciudadanía Fiscal: Los Programas De Educación Fiscal (2011) [Online]. Available: https://www.ciat.org/Biblioteca/Asambleas Generales/2011/Espanol/2011_tema_3.1_peru_Hirsh.pdf 17. Korostelkina, I., Dedkova, E., Varaksa, N., Korostelkin, M.: Models of tax relations: improving the tax culture and discipline of taxpayers in the interests of sustainable development. In: E3S Web of Conferences, vol. 159, p. 06014, Mar 2020. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202015 906014 18. Otzen, T., Manterola, C.: Técnicas de Muestreo sobre una Población a Estudio. Int. J. Morphol. 35(1), 227–232 (2017). https://doi.org/10.4067/S0717-95022017000100037 19. Appelbaum, M., et al.: Journal article reporting standards for quantitative research in psychology: the APA publications and communications board task force report’: correction to Appelbaum et al. (2018). Am. Psychol. 73(7), 947–947 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1037/amp 0000389 20. Bingham, N.; Fry, J.: Regression: Linear Models in Statistics. Springer, New York (2010) 21. Matas, A.: Diseño del formato de escalas tipo Likert: un estado de la cuestión. Rev. Electrón. Investig. Educ. 20(1), 38 (2018). https://doi.org/10.24320/redie.2018.20.1.1347

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22. Streiner, D.L.: Figuring out factors: the use and misuse of factor analysis. Can. J. Psychiatry 39(3), 135–140 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1177/070674379403900303 23. Aiken, R.: Psychological Testing and Assessment, 11th edn. Allyn & Bacon, Boston (2002) 24. Cohen, J.: A power primer. Psychol. Bull. 112, 155–159 (1992)

Chapter 23

Tax Culture and Its Correlational Effect on the Payment of Real Estate Income Tax Beatriz Baylón-Gonzales , Karina Vega-Rosales , Geraldine Yarleque-Bayona, and Nathaly Curi-Condemayta Abstract Tax culture plays an important role in reducing tax evasion of any type of income generation. Therefore, the research purpose is to analyze whether tax education, tax knowledge and tax awareness are components of the tax culture that allows increasing the payment of taxes on income obtained from housing rental. A survey was applied to 150 lessors. The research not only seeks to know which of the components is the one that most correlates with the tax payment, but also how much they contribute to the reduction of tax evasion of these lessors. The findings found show that if taxpayers have a greater knowledge about their tax obligations, tax education and tax awareness which are reinforced, they will show a greater commitment to paying the tax for the rental of their homes.

23.1 Introduction The lack of tax culture is a problem that is observed in several countries in Latin America, which is why research carried out by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows the attempt that governments make to approach the citizens, and these in turn see the payment of taxes as an integral aspect of their relationship with the government [1]. The payment of taxes for income generation from housing rental, in Peru, is a tax that is not very controlled by the audit institution. Therefore, it generates tax evasion and informality, since many citizens do not have the Single Taxpayer Registration (RUC, in Spanish). In that sense, they affect tax collection and the performance of the state [2]. The citizens’ tax values play an important role in the collection of said tax; this is being a necessary element of tax culture [3], which implies that it is recognized that B. Baylón-Gonzales (B) · K. Vega-Rosales · G. Yarleque-Bayona · N. Curi-Condemayta Universidad de Ciencias y Humanidades, 15314 Lima, Perú e-mail: [email protected] K. Vega-Rosales e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_23

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the payment of said tax is used in the state expenditures [4], thus allowing a better performance of the same [5]. However, taxpayers still need to have a higher income, which leads them to continue evading their tax obligations, as a result of a distancing from the audit institution [6, 7], which result is a low collection with respect to the income tax for housing rental, which in Peru is called first-category income tax [8].

23.2 Theoretical Framework 23.2.1 Tax Culture The tax culture is associated with the fulfillment of duties as citizens and a set of values, beliefs and attitudes about taxation [9]. This is also reflected in the behavior they show when complying with the payment of their taxes [7]. However, there is no single definition of tax culture. This definition goes beyond just talking about the taxpayer and the fulfillment of their tax obligations. It is seeking the union and commitment of all those involved in the tax system. In that sense, to speak of tax culture is to speak of the rules, of the taxpayers, the audit entity and the professionals, all united with a single purpose, to create tax policies that involve everyone’s ideas [10]. In this research, three dimensions of tax culture will be analyzed, dimensions that allow us to know how much taxpayers know about their tax obligations and about the responsibility they show in their compliance (Fig. 23.1). Tax knowledge. It refers to the knowledge of tax legislation [11], since it stipulates the obligations that must be met with respect to their taxes and the attitude toward taxation. The more tax knowledge the taxpayer has, the more responsible he will be with the compliance of his tax obligations [12]. Tax education. Tax education does not consist only in imparting technical concepts, but it has to do with the construction of an “active, supportive and responsible citizenship, aware of their rights and obligations” [13]. Therefore, tax education has become a strategy for different governments, with the aim of improving tax compliance and tax morale. In this sense, through the tax education programs that are implemented in schools and universities, it will be possible to strengthen the tax culture in taxpayers [1]. Fig. 23.1 Components of the tax culture. Source: Own elaboration

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Tax awareness. Tax awareness is related to people’s attitudes and beliefs, that is, it is what motivates the taxpayer to pay their taxes without coercive measures, reducing to the tolerance analysis toward fraud, and it is believed that it is determined by personal values [14]. Such is people’s internalization of the obligations and duties they have in sustaining public expenditures through their tax contribution [15].

23.2.2 Payment of Income Tax for Housing Rental In Peru, taxpayers who generate income by renting their homes to third parties are called first-category income as stipulated in art. 2 of the income tax law [16], which refers to income from capital gains. The first-category income belongs to the real income both in kind and in cash for leasing or subleasing which originates from urban properties or any other personal property [17]. However, the payment of this tax in Peru is not adequately audited by the audit entity, and taxpayers do not show interest in publicizing the rentals they make. Therefore, through the following Table 23.1, the subdivision of the first-category income is disclosed. In this way, Superintendencia Nacional de Aduanas y Administración Tributaria (National Superintendency of Customs and Tax Administration) [19] explains to us that it is a tax that is established annually, obliging in the same way the income that comes from the use of a capital. In general, Supreme Decree (DS) No. 1792004-EF [16] tells us that the income tax for rental of properties refers to all those leases of a room, apartment, mini-apartment or a flat, whether used for home, office or warehouse. It should be noted that the monthly rate is divided into two types: Table 23.1 Classification of first-category income tax Classification

Description

Properties

• It is the lease or sublease, by which the lessee gives the lessor the amount for the property and the taxes to be paid. If we are talking about leasing, the monthly percentage will be 6% of the property’s value

Temporary transfer of personal property and real estate

• It is the succession of goods whose value will be less than what is already applied in the market. Likewise, gross income will be less than 8%

Improvements introduced by lease or sublease • It is a benefit for the lessee, which will not have a refund, being detrimental to whoever obtains it Constructive income of properties

• It refers to free transfer or undetermined price of a property

Note First-category income classification for the payment of taxes. Own authorship adapted from the income tax law [18]

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Fig. 23.2 Calculation of the monthly payment on account of the income tax for the lease of real estate. Source: Own elaboration

constructive income with 6.25% and gross income with 5%. However, the monthly rate is applied to the net amount disclosed by the lessor; as well as, the annual rate applied for the first-category income tax is 20%, which the owner must pay the percentage applied through the virtual form 1683 (Fig. 23.2). However, it can be said that the property rental tax is usually adapted to the composite value of land and buildings of each real estate [20]. The DS No. 1792004-EF [16] should say that article 36 of the income tax law refers to the annual payment that must be applied, which discloses that in the event that this is 20%, if these are applicable as losses, they cannot be used in the coming years. Therefore, the objective is to analyze whether tax knowledge, tax education and tax awareness show any correlational effect with the payment of income tax for housing rental by taxpayers in San Martin de Porras district, Peru. These elements allow reinforcing the tax culture in taxpayers in order to guarantee greater tax collection.

23.3 Methodology The research is quantitative and correlational in scope [21].

23.3.1 Participants For the selection of participants, a non-probabilistic convenience method was used [22]. Therefore, the sample is made up of 150 owners located in the district of San Martin de Porres. This demarcation was taken as the study point because it is the second most populated district in Lima [23]. Of the selected homes, the age of the respondents was taken into account as an inclusion criterion: 70% of the respondents are between 50 and 65 years old and 30% are between 25 and 38 years old. Table 23.2 shows which areas have been surveyed within the San Martin de Porres district,

23 Tax Culture and Its Correlational Effect on the Payment of Real Estate … Table 23.2 Owners of surveyed properties

Areas

Number of respondents

277

Percentage (%)

Urbanization Santa María del Valle

65

43

Urbanization Philadelphia

35

27

Association Villa San Remo

40

23

Association Mi Terruño Total

10

7

150

100

Note The table reflects the detail of the participants surveyed, by geographic location

areas in which signs with advertisements for the rental of rooms, complete floors or first-floor floors for business were identified.

23.3.2 Instruments The technique used is the survey [24], whose instrument is the Likert scale questionnaire. The scale that was taken into account for the instruments was the following: “never” (1), “almost never” (2), “sometimes” (3), “almost always” (4) and “always” (5). The validation of both scales was carried out through exploratory factor analysis (EFA), and the reliability has been determined through Cronbach’s alpha. Since no elaborate instruments were found, two measurement scales were constructed, taking into account internal consistency. To do this, its preparation began in July 2019, which went through a verification process by specialists (3) in tax matters. They mentioned that some questions were not addressed to answer the objective that was set, corrections were made and then this was approved in November 2019. Scale of the tax culture variable. The tax culture scale is made up of 15 questions which have been divided into three dimensions; the first dimension “tax knowledge” [11, 12] consists of five items, which allow knowing the level of knowledge regarding their tax obligations on the part of taxpayers. The second dimension “tax education” [13] consists of five items, which are aimed at knowing what are the forms that the state uses for taxpayers to obtain information about when they acquire a tax obligation; finally, the third dimension “tax awareness” [14, 15], which has focused on five items, refers to the taxpayer’s own will to comply with said obligations without having a rule that coerces him. Scale of first-category income tax’s variable on property leases. The first-category income tax scale on property leases is made up of five items, which have been aimed

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at knowing the taxpayer’s level of knowledge regarding the payment of taxes for renting their homes [20]. In that sense, the indicators that were taken into account for preparing the instrument were to know if the taxpayers declare their lease tax [16], to know if they know the rate to be paid, if they know how often they should pay and if they perform the correct calculation procedures. Procedure. First of all, 150 owners of the leased houses have been contacted. Then, they were informed what the survey consisted of and signed an informed consent. Finally, the information was analyzed and processed in the SPSS V.25 program to establish the relation between the tax culture and the payment of the first-category income tax.

23.4 Results 23.4.1 Scale and Measurement Elements As a part of the contribution of this study, two instruments were developed to be able to evaluate the tax culture of taxpayers who are receivers of property rental income. And as preliminary results, the validity analysis is presented with the Kaiser–Meyer– Olkin (KMO) test for sampling adequacy, in which 0.74 value was obtained for the tax culture variable and 0.60 value for the income tax for housing rental’s variable, which demonstrates the scale validity. Then, the reliability analysis with Cronbach’s alpha coefficient reflected that both the variables and the dimensions are reliable, which is observed in Tables 23.3 and 23.4. The values indicate that the tax culture and income tax for rental of properties’ scale are optimal for future research.

23.4.2 Relation Between Variables The relations between variables were analyzed according to Spearman’s rho and using Cohen’s correlation criteria for social studies (mild, r = 0.10–0.23; moderate, r = 0.24–0.36; and strong, r = 0.37 or more) [25]. According to the results shown in Table 23.5, it is observed that tax knowledge is related in a positive, strong and significant way (r = 0.77, p < 0.001) to the firstcategory income tax on property leases. This means that if the taxpayers have a greater knowledge about their tax obligations, the higher the collection of the firstcategory income tax on property leases will be. On the other hand, it is observed that tax education is related in a positive, strong and significant way (r = 0.74, p < 0.001) to the collection of the first-category income tax on property leases, which means that if taxpayers are given more tax education, this will be reflected in a higher collection of first-category income tax on property leases.

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Table 23.3 Reliability measures of the tax culture scale Scales

Dimensions and items

Scale reliability (α)

Tax culture (α = 0.93) Tax knowledge 0.87 • You have knowledge about the payment of taxes for renting your home • You know how to pay the tax for renting your home • You know the procedure to calculate the amount to be paid • You know the rate you should pay • You know the penalties for not paying this tax Tax education 0.87 • The audit institution conducts talks near your home • You have requested information on the tax for renting homes • You received information about paying taxes at school • You have attended some training given by Sunat in its information centers • Lessors ask you for proof of taxes payment Tax awareness 0.78 • You declare your rental income voluntarily • You are punctual in paying your taxes • You hide your income from renting your home • You deliver proof of payment to your tenants • You do not pay the rental tax because you do not know anything about it Note: Validation values KMO = 0.74 (≥ 0.50); Test Bartlett = 0.001 (p < 0.05) and reliability values α = Cronbach’s alpha (≥ 0.61–0.80) Table 23.4 Reliability measures of the income tax for housing Rental’s scale Scale

Dimensions and items

Scale reliability (α)

Payment of income tax for housing First-category income tax 0.91 rental (α = 0.91) • You have RUC (single taxpayer registration) and a password for paying taxes • You know that the monthly payment is equal to 5% of the rental value • You know when you must pay the tax • You know that at the end of the year, you must regularize if you pass 6% of the property tax appraisal • You know who you pay the tax for renting your home Note: Validation values KMO = 0.60 (≥ 0.50); Test Bartlett = 0.001 (p < 0.05). and reliability values α = Cronbach’s alpha (≥ 0.61–0.80)

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Table 23.5 Bivariate correlation between variables Variables

1

2

3

1.Tax knowledge 2. Tax education

0.76***

3. Tax awareness

0.72***

0.75***

4. Payment of income tax for housing rental

0.77***

0.74***

0.78***

Note: * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.0001 (bilateral)

Then, it is observed that tax awareness is positively, strongly and significantly related (r = 0.78, p < 0.001) with the first-category income tax on property leases, which means that if taxpayers are aware when paying the first-category income tax on property leases, the tax collection will be favorable. Therefore, it is observed in the results that the three components of the tax culture analyzed are related in a positive, strong and significant way with the collection of the first-category income tax on property leases.

23.5 Discussion and Conclusion The research objective is to analyze the tax culture, but from its dimensions, tax knowledge, tax education and tax awareness, with respect to the payment of income tax from housing rentals. The results have shown that tax education would help to increase the income tax payment, which means that the state must continue to improve its tax education programs [1], since this allows the creation of an “active, supportive and responsible citizenry, aware of their rights and obligations” [13]. Likewise, it was evidenced that the more citizens know about their tax obligations [11], the greater their commitment to paying their taxes generated by income from renting their homes [12, 19] will be. It should be noted that the tax inspection with respect to this tax generated by housing rental is weak since the audit entity is not supplied. Thus, resorting to improving the taxpayer’s commitment, where their personal values predominate, to show a responsible attitude toward paying their taxes, without having to apply coercive measures to comply with them [14, 15], is related to tax awareness. Therefore, the construction of the tax culture should be an important activity in the agendas not only of the Ministry of Economy but also in the Ministry of Education, both ministries together will be able to build citizens with solid tax principles, where everyone is part of building a fairer country and responsibilities for all.

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Chapter 24

Development of a Portable Neutron Detection System for Security and Defense Applications Luís Marques, Alberto Vale, and Pedro Vaz

Abstract In order to prevent the illicit traffic of radioactive and special nuclear materials, radiation portal monitors are normally used, for the detection of gamma-rays and neutrons. Helium-3-based technology is commonly used for neutron detection, but the world is facing a shortage of this isotope. The large size and weight of the neutron detection system (gas volume and needed moderator material) make it very difficult to use in mobile applications. In this study, a lightweight, compact, portable, and low power neutron detection system EJ-426HD plastic scintillator with a silicon photomultiplier readout is presented. Innovative solutions for prototyping of moderator materials using 3D printing and the use of an embedded detector in modular sheets were compared with Monte Carlo simulations. Experimental tests using the developed neutron detection system (modular sheets) and an americium241:beryllium source showed improvements on the detection efficiency in the range 12–79% changing the moderator and reflector sheets.

24.1 Introduction Radiation sources and radioactive materials are widely used for applications in medicine, industry, and research. While special nuclear materials (SNMs) can be used in improvised nuclear devices (INDs), with potential major casualties in a urban area, other radioactive materials can be used as radiological exposure devices L. Marques (B) Centro de Investigação da Academia da Força Aérea, Instituto Universitário Militar, Granja do Marquês, 2715-021 Pêro Pinheiro, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] A. Vale Instituto de Plasmas e Fusão Nuclear, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal P. Vaz Centro de Ciências e Tecnologias Nucleares, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Estrada Nacional 10 (km 139.7), 2695-066 Bobadela, Portugal © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_24

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(REDs) or radiological dispersal devices (RDDs), using explosives (“dirty bombs”) and dispersed in the atmosphere. RDDs will have an economic and social disruptive impact [1, 2]. Security of radiation sources, radioactive materials, and SNMs and the need to deter and avoid their illicit trafficking are therefore of paramount importance. To prevent the illicit trafficking of SNM and other radioactive materials, large and heavy radiation portal monitors (RPMs) are normally placed at international borders, airports, or seaports. These RPMs can detect gamma-rays, and in some cases, neutrons originated from the cargo transported by vehicles, shipping containers, or even persons [3, 4]. Considering the use of mobile radiation detection systems in security-related scenarios, much of the published literature is related to large and heavy detection systems installed and transported by cars, trucks, and trailers. The search for more compact and lightweight detection systems which can be transported by smaller mobile platforms is an active field of research [5, 6]. Their deployment would allow to inspect more complex geometries and materials, entering in narrow spaces (improved maneuvrability) and getting closer to the radiation source, therefore reducing the detector size and cost [7, 8] and increasing the efficacy and efficiency of the radiation monitoring and security controls. Neutron detection is normally used as a complement to the gamma-ray detection and is essential for deterring and preventing radiological and nuclear threats and malevolent acts. The gamma-ray emission of radionuclides can be shielded (by few centimeters of high-Z materials) or masked using naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORMs). Since neutron detection is characterized by a lower natural background, an intrinsic difficulty to shield neutrons, and much fewer neutron sources are commercially available, a neutron alarm can immediately trigger a response. Some neutron sources available commercially are alpha emitters associated with lighter nuclides like 241 Am–Be and 239 Pu–Be, spontaneous fission sources like 252 Cf (neutron energy spectrum similar with that of plutonium), plutonium, and highly enriched uranium (HEU). However, HEU is very difficult to detect because it emits very few neutrons, and the low-energy gamma-rays (largest gamma signal 185 keV) may be easily shielded and fall in the low detection efficiency range of conventional detectors. The major applications of the neutron sources are soil and concrete density and moisture measurements, oil and gas well logging, and nuclear power industry in which large masses of natural or enriched uranium oxide can be transported [4]. Most neutron detectors used in RPMs are 3 He proportional counters; however, there is a worldwide shortage of this isotope. In [9], four commercially available alternative neutron detection technologies were tested for use in RPMs (BF3 proportional counters, boron-lined proportional counters, lithium-loaded glass fibers, and coated wavelength-shifting plastic fibers), considering the following requirements: (i) high neutron detection efficiency; (ii) ability to detect both fast and slow components as neutrons coming from the source might be attenuated by some shielding (moderator) or by the cargo composition; and (iii) low gamma-ray sensitivity, sought as low as possible considering the aimed reduced false alarm rate in the presence of

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an intense gamma-ray source. Despite only BF3 pass all the tests, some disadvantages were pointed out: higher volume, higher operating voltage, and the fact of being a hazardous gas. In this study, a very lightweight and compact EJ-426HD (6 Li content) plastic scintillator with silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) readout features a high neutron detection efficiency, very low sensitivity to gamma-rays, and a low power consumption. Since the detection efficiency can be improved by reducing the incident neutron energy, an optimization of the geometry and constituent materials (namely neutron moderator) was performed using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations using the state-of-the-art computer program Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport (MCNP) in order to keep the weight as low as possible. This improved detection system with a weight less than 2 kg can be used in a small mobile platform (e.g., multirotor) or as a handheld equipment for security and defense applications. The 6 Li-related neutron detection system is based on the following thermal neutron capture reaction (cross section of 940 barns) [10]: 6

Li + n → 4 H + 3 H + 4.78 MeV

(24.1)

24.2 Materials and Methods 24.2.1 Experimental Procedure The prototype detector, produced by SCIONIX [12], consists of two layers of 0.32 mm-thick EJ-426HD (25 × 90 mm2 ) with a wavelength shifter EJ-280 (25 × 90 × 4 mm3 ) between them [13], a SiPM readout, and a built-in preamplifier/bias generator. It weights 93 g and has two connections: (i) for both detector signal and SiPM power and (ii) a TTL counting output. A TOPAZ-SiPM multichannel analyzer (MCA), developed by BrightSpec [14], was used to provide the necessary voltage to the detector and to read the electrical signals (related to the neutron interactions). The TOPAZ-SiPM sends the output to a Raspberry Pi model 3B via USB port. A code written in C language was developed to send simple instructions to TOPAZ-SiPM via Raspberry Pi such as open/close MCA, start/stop acquisition, and store data. A laptop is used to remotely access Raspberry Pi via Wi-Fi hotspot to keep a safe distance to the radiation source. Difficulties in the procurement of a neutron source with the desirable activity it was considered in this work a Troxler equipment [15] in which a 1.47 GBq 241 Am–Be (hereafter designated AmBe) source (with an uncertainty of ± 10%) and a 0.146 GBq 137 Cs source (with an uncertainty of ± 10%) can be found. When the 137 Cs source rod is in the safe position, most of the gamma-rays are attenuated and absorbed by the equipment shielding made of tungsten and lead, in particular by the tungsten sliding block located in the bottom of the equipment. During the experiments, the equipment was in the safe position and rotated 90◦ with the bottom side oriented to the source. The sources and the detector center were placed at 1 m from the ground.

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(a) Setup side view.

(c)

(d)

(b) Setup detail.

(e) Grid points for measurements.

Fig. 24.1 Experimental setup for source-detector distance of 1 m and equipment

Experimental tests were performed to study the effects of the moderator configuration in the neutron detection efficiency when considering an AmBe neutron source from a Troxler equipment only (Fig. 24.1a, b) and with 5 -cm sheets of highdensity polyethylene (HDPE) (Fig. 24.1c). The sensitivity of the neutron detector to an intense gamma-ray source (137 Cs) was also studied. Figure 24.1b shows the detail view of the experimental apparatus used to perform the measurements, namely the radioactive sources (housed in the Troxler equipment), the neutron moderator surrounding the detector made by high molecular weight polyethylene (HMWPE), the electronics, and other auxiliary equipment. Besides the prototype modular neutron moderator sheets developed (described in Sect. 24.3), a heavier and more conventional 5 -cm wall thickness HDPE cylinder moderator (Fig. 24.1d) was used in order to compare results. A grid of points (Fig. 24.1e) was used to place the detector and perform measurements at several distances from the AmBe source in order to determine the sensitivity of the detection system to locate the source.

24.2.2 Monte Carlo Simulations To study and optimize the effects of different compositions and dimensions of a prototype moderator in the neutron detection efficiency, the MCNP6 software was used. MCNP6 is a radiation transport code that can generate and transport different particles (e.g., neutrons, photons, electrons, and other charged particles) through matter

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(b) XY.

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(c) XZ.

Fig. 24.2 MC geometry of the detector and moderator (views) and coordinates

allowing to obtain specific tallies from surfaces or volumes [11]. To run the MC simulations, a model of the detection system was implemented defining the geometry of detector (Fig. 24.2) and surrounding materials (air), the source term (particles emitted, their energies, and emission angles), the composition of material, the physics processes to be considered in the simulations (mode n was used, neutron transport only), and the tallies (quantities to be scored) were specified. The source considered is an AmBe neutron point source (isotropic distribution), centered on the detector at a given distance with an energy distribution given by [4]. The materials considered in the simulations were HMWPE (CH2 with density 0.96 g cm−3 ), HDPE (CH2 with density 0.95 g cm−3 ) [16], polylactic acid (PLA, (C3 H4 O2 )n with density 1.25 g cm−3 ) [17], polyethylene terephthalate glycol (PET-G, C14 H20 O5 S with density 1.27 g cm−3 ) [18], and n(C12 H22 N2 O2 )n with density 1.14 g cm−3 ) [19]. All the materials considered in the simulations are characterized by their rich hydrogen content and for being widely used in industry. HMWPE, HDPE, and nylon are normally found in mechanical engineering industry and are available in round rods/tubes, as well as sheets and blocks. HMWPE and HDPE are also used in food industry (e.g., hygienic cutting board). The PLA, PET-G, and nylon are widely used as 3D printing filament materials. The neutron detection efficiency using different moderator materials was simulated considering the tritium production in the EJ-426HD plastic material which is due mainly by the thermal neutron capture in the 6 Li (see Eq. 24.1) and is obtained using tally F4 (reaction number 105) that scores the number of (n, t) reactions per starting particle and per cubic centimeter.

24.3 Results and Discussion 24.3.1 Monte Carlo Simulations Figure 24.3 displays the neutron detection efficiency for different moderator materials and moderator thickness (in Z length). PLA and PET-G feature the worst neutron moderator effectiveness, mainly due to their lower hydrogen contents. Despite having half values compared to the optimum solutions, nylon can be used in 3D printers allowing different shapes and sizes. Using HDPE and HMWPE, very similar results are obtained, with a maximum value for a moderator thickness of 7 cm.

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Fig. 24.3 Neutron detection efficiency dependence with moderator composition and thickness. The detector cross-section dimension is 9 × 11 cm2

Fig. 24.4 Relative neutron detection efficiency varying source-detector distances as a function of X length with Y = 4.5 cm and Z = 7 cm (left figure) and as a function of Y length with X = 11 cm and Z = 7 cm (right figure) of the moderator

In order to determine the optimum X and Y length of the neutron moderator (crosssectional dimension), a 7 -cm-thick HDPE moderator (in Z length) for the detector (3.5 -cm moderator sheet on both sides of the detector) and an AmBe neutron point source located at 1 mm, 20 cm and 1 m from the detector center were considered. The obtained simulation results are displayed in Fig. 24.4. Figure 24.4 shows that the neutron detection efficiency increases with the moderator cross-sectional size in particular for higher source-detector distances. However, this variation is lower as the moderator size is increased, with the additional impact of increasing significantly the weight of the detection system. Therefore, a good compromise was found by considering the values of X = 14.5 cm and Y = 11 cm, for which more than 90% relative detection efficiency is obtained.

24.3.2 Neutron Detection System Development and Experimental Tests A computer numerical control (CNC) milling machine was used to create a modular neutron moderator from a 20 -mm-thick HDPE (Polystone 300) and a 15 -mm-thick

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Fig. 24.5 HMWPE moderator sheets of 15 -mm thickness surrounding the detector

HMWPE (Polystone 500). In total, four plates of 15 -mm HMWPE and four plates of 20 -mm HDPE with a cross-sectional area of 14.5 × 11 cm2 (as obtained by MC simulation) were produced. In a pair of plates of 15 mm and in a pair of plates of 20 mm, a space for the detector was created (Fig. 24.5). Since the 15 and 20 -mm sheets can be combined in several ways, it is possible to optimize the detection efficiency for a certain radioactive source (given the neutron energy distribution). For the sake of simplicity, a nomenclature was defined for each detection system configuration, for example “M40R35” means the detector is surrounded by a 40 -mm polyethylene thick on the source side, normally called moderator, and a 35 -mm polyethylene thick on the opposite side of the source, also called reflector. The total moderator thickness in Z length is given by 75 mm reduced by 10 mm (the space left for the detector). Depending on the configuration, the weight can vary between 0.45 kg (for the configuration M15R15) and 1.65 kg (for the configuration M70R40). Using the experimental setup of Fig. 24.1b (at the same height, detector placed 1 m distance from AmBe source) and Fig. 24.1d when a moderated AmBe source (with 5 -cm HDPE), it was obtained for each detector configuration of Figs. 24.6 and 24.7 one data acquisition of 300 s. As can be seen in Fig. 24.6, using the cylindrical moderator results in a better detection efficiency followed by the use of the M40R35 and M40R40 configurations. This can be explained by the higher cross-sectional area of the cylinder (224.75 cm2 ) compared to the other configurations (159.5 cm2 ). Despite this advantage in solid angle, the cylindrical moderator is much heavier (2.2 kg) than the M40R35 and M40R40 configurations (1.1 kg). When considering a 5 -cm HDPE thick moderated AmBe source, M40R35 leads to a significant reduction in the neutron counts, while M40R40 maintains its performance in terms of detection efficiency. The higher neutron counts obtained for M40R40 and M40R35 compared to other configurations are also in agreement with MC simulations (Fig. 24.3) which indicates that the optimum moderator thickness (in Z length) is around 7 cm. For the M40R35 configuration, the neutron counts with the 137 Cs source placed at the surface of the Troxler bottom (first notch after the safe position) were also obtained. The neutron counts obtained without and with 137 Cs were 673 ± 26 and 685 ± 26, respectively. Considering the statistical uncertainties, it can be inferred that the neutron detection system exhibits very low sensitivity to gamma-rays (considering the high intensity gamma-rays used). Another test was made to see if an increase in cross-sectional area could change the neutron detection efficiency. A 1.5 -cm-

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Fig. 24.6 Neutron counts with varying moderator configuration (source-detector distance 1 m) considering an AmBe source only and with 5 -cm thickness HDPE

Fig. 24.7 Neutron counts with varying moderator configuration (source-detector distance 1 m) considering an AmBe source with 5 -cm thickness HDPE

thick HDPE sheet was added to the top and afterward to the side of the M40R35. Neutron counts of 674 ± 26 and 684 ± 26 were obtained, in agreement with the value 673±26 when no additional sheets are inserted and in agreement with the MC simulation results (Fig. 24.4). Since for the 5 -cm HDPE thickness moderated AmBe source situation, there is already some reduction in the neutron energy, and it was considered to move the sheets that were initially placed in the moderator side (Fig. 24.6) to the reflector side (Fig. 24.7), except the central sheets where the detector was inserted. For example, M15R15 configuration is kept constant, but M30R15 configuration was changed to M15R30 (notice that no change in weight took place). The results are displayed in Fig. 24.7. From Fig. 24.7, the configuration with higher neutron counts is now M20R75 which leads to an increase of 47% compared to its equivalent weight configuration M55R40. In general, the increase in detection efficiency can go from 12% up to 79% depending on the configuration change. For the grid of points presented in Fig. 24.1e, it obtained the neutron counts, using a single data acquisition of 100 s per each point, varying the distance to centerline (position of the AmBe source), for different detection system configurations (Fig. 24.8). The cylindrical moderator shows better source position discrimination (higher counts in centerline position) for a path located 1 m from the source (see

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(a) Path 1m.

(b) Path 2m.

(c) Path 3m.

(d) Path 1m.

(e) Path 2m.

(f) Path 3m.

Fig. 24.8 Neutron counts considering an AmBe source only (top figures) and with 5 -cm thickness HDPE (bottom figures). Background counts per 100 s: 10.0 ± 1.3 (cylindrical); 10.3 ± 1.3 (M40R35); 9.3 ± 1.2 (M40R40); 8.3 ± 1.2 (M20R75)

Fig. 24.8a); however, when considering distant pathlengths (2 and 3 m) the differences between the cylindrical and the M40R40 and M40R35 configurations are not significant (see Fig. 24.8b, c). When considering a 5 -cm HDPE thick moderated AmBe source, the M20R75 configuration yields better source position discrimination (see Fig. 24.8d); however, the differences between the configurations considered are small even for distant paths (Fig. 24.8e, f).

24.4 Conclusion To avoid illicit trafficking of radioactive materials and sources as well as SNMs, large and expensive detection systems are normally used in borders. In this work, a EJ-426HD plastic scintillator based in 6 Li thermal neutron capture reaction with a SiPM readout was developed and tested. Compared to 3 He and BF3 technologies, it presents some advantages such as lightweight, compact, and low power. Using MC simulations validated by experimental tests using an AmBe source, it was shown that its detection efficiency can be improved, making the optimized detection system together with its very low sensitivity to gamma-rays a good candidate for security and defense applications. The MC simulations showed that the moderator materials which feature higher neutron detection efficiency were HDPE and HMWPE. However, other materials such as nylon used in 3D printing could in principle be considered.

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Considering the moderator geometry and configuration, two main groups were considered: (I) HDPE cylinder and a (II) HDPE/HMWPE interchangeable sheets. Despite the fact that the cylindrical moderator showed the highest neutron detection efficiency and of source position discrimination along pathlength 1 m for an AmBe source, it is the heaviest solution (2.2 kg) and no significant improvement was obtained in source localization along distant pathlengths (compared to group II). From group II, the M40R35 and M40R40 configurations showed the highest neutron detection efficiency (for 6.5 -cm and 7 -cm moderator thickness, respectively), in agreement with the simulated values. When considering a 5 -cm HDPE moderated AmBe source: (i) the M40R40 configuration showed a similar efficiency, while the efficiency of the M40R35 configuration is significantly reduced. Therefore, the M40R40 configuration is a good compromise in terms of weight (1.1 kg) and neutron detection efficiency (AmBe moderated or not); (ii) the neutron detection efficiency can be improved by 12% up to 79% moving the moderator sheets to the reflector side. The M20R75 configuration showed the highest neutron detection efficiency and of source position discrimination along pathlengths 1 and 2 m. Future work to be undertaken encompasses tests of the detection system with a 252 Cf source (its neutron energy distribution is closer to that of plutonium) and comparison of the results with a 3 He proportional counter. This neutron detection system is compatible with mobile platforms (e.g., power consumption, payload, data acquisition/processing) and will be installed on a multirotor in combination with a gamma-ray detector for inspection of suspicious objects (e.g., maritime shipping cargo container).

References 1. International Atomic Energy Agency: Combating Illicit Trafficking in Nuclear and Other Radioactive Material. In: IAEA Nuclear Security Series, vol. 6. Vienna (2007) 2. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine: Radioactive Sources: Applications and Alternative. Technologies National Academies Press, Washington, DC (2021). https:// doi.org/10.17226/26121 3. Connolly, E.L., Martin, P.G.: Current and prospective radiation detection systems, screening infrastructure and interpretive algorithms for the non-intrusive screening of shipping container cargo: a review. J. Nucl. Eng. 2(3), 246–280 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3390/jne2030023 4. Kouzes, R.T., Siciliano, E.R., Ely, J.H., Keller, P.E., McConn, R.J.: Passive neutron detection for interdiction of nuclear material at borders. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. Phys. Res. A 584(2–3), 383–400 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nima.2007.10.026 5. Marques, L., Vale, A., Vaz, P.: State-of-the-art mobile radiation detection systems for different scenarios. Sensors 21(4), 1–67 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3390/s21041051 6. Pinto, L.R., Vale, A., Brouwer, Y., Borbinha, J., Corisco, J., Ventura, R., Silva, A.M., Mourato, A., Marques, G., Romanets, Y., Sargento, S., Gonçalves, B.: Radiological scouting, monitoring and inspection using drones. Sensors 21(9), 3143 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3390/s21093143 7. Borbinha, J., Romanets, Y., Teles, P., Corisco, J., Vaz, P., Carvalho, D., Brouwer, Y., Luís, R., Pinto, L., Vale, A., Ventura, R., Areias, B., Reis, A.B., Gonçalves, B.: Performance analysis of

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Geiger-Müller and cadmium zinc telluride sensors envisaging airborne radiological monitoring in NORM sites. Sensors 20, 1538 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3390/s20051538 Brouwer, Y., Vale, A., Macedo, D., Gonçalves, B., Fernandes, H.: Radioactive hot-spot detection using unmanned aerial vehicle surveillance. EPJ Web Conf. 225, 06005 (2020). https:// doi.org/10.1051/epjconf/202022506005 Kouzes, R.T., Ely, J.H., Erikson, L.E., Kernan, W.J., Lintereur, A.T., Siciliano, E.R., Stephens, D.L., Stromswold, D.C., Van Ginhoven, R.M., Woodring, M.L.: Neutron detection alternatives to 3 He for national security applications. Nucl. Instrum. Meth. Phys. Res. A 623(3), 1035–1045 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nima.2010.08.021 Knoll, G.F.: Radiation Detection and Measurement, 3rd edn. Wiley, New York, NY, USA (2010) Pelowitz, D.B.: MCNP6 User’s Manual Version 1.0. Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA (2013) SCIONIX Homepage. https://scionix.nl. Last accessed 10 Mar 2022 EJ Products: https://eljentechnology.com/products/. Last accessed 18 Apr 2022 BrightSpec Homepage: https://www.brightspec.be. Last accessed 10 Mar 2022 Troxler Electronic Laboratories: Manual of Operation and Instruction Model 3440 Surface Moisture-Density Gauge, 17.7th edn. North Carolina, USA (2009) Roechling Thermoplastics: https://www.roechling.com/industrial/materials/thermoplastics/? search=polystone. Last accessed 05 Mar 2022 43D Homepage: https://43dprint.org/how-much-filament-is-used-in-3d-printing/. Last accessed 10 Mar 2022 PET-G Properties: https://www.3drealize.com/petg-filament-material-properties-guide/. Last accessed 10 Mar 2022 Technical Data Sheet Nylon: https://3dprint.pe/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/TDS_BCN3D_ Filaments_Nylon.pdf. Last accessed 10 Mar 2022

Chapter 25

Research of Air Measurement in Kosovo Power Plants A and B During Electricity Production Adem Musliu, Milazim Shabani, Naim Baftiu, and Betim Maloku

Abstract Technological level of transforming energy from natural forms into useful and desirable forms is a basis for evaluating energetic efficiency, where any technological advancement causes social development and growth of economy. As the future of the human race, from the aspect of supplying with the energy, is filled with lots of uncertainties, period of transition until 2050 will be characterized by significant rhythm of changes and by rapturous events. Power plants based on modern technologies of coal usage power plants with technology of coal clean, plants with systems for waste gases purification, power plants with combined gas steam cycle, electricity production using fuel cells represent technologies that will be used for electricity production in first half of the twenty-first century. The purpose of this paper is to measure the values of air pollutants such as SO2 , NO2 , benzene, CO, lead, PM10 and PM2.5 in two main blocks (Kosova A and B) of Kosovo Energy Corporation (KEK JSC). These measured values mean the concentration of pollutants in the ambient air, which is determined on the basis of scientific knowledge, in order to avoid, prevent or reduce the harmful effects on human health and/or the environment as a whole, to was reached where possible during a certain time. The main objective of this paper is a concentration of pollutants in ambient air in order to ensure effective protection of human health and the environment.

A. Musliu · M. Shabani College “Biznesi”, Prishtina, Kosovo e-mail: [email protected] M. Shabani e-mail: [email protected] N. Baftiu (B) · B. Maloku Faculty Computer Science, University “Ukshin Hoti”, Prizren, Kosovo e-mail: [email protected] B. Maloku e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_25

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25.1 Introduction Energy is a prerequisite for the comments, well-being and contacts of a society. The electricity sector is one of the main pillars of economic development activities in Kosovo. All in all, an increase in data needs to produce more in Kosovo, and this increase produces conditions a wide range of environmental impacts with negative effects both locally, regionally and globally. From this point of view, the environmental issue is very sensitive, quite complex and in the face of a greater challenge of society with an impact in the future. Kosovo Energy Corporation (KEK JSC) was established for the purpose of carrying out the activity of coal mining and electricity generation, which produces about 97% of the total amount of production in Kosovo. It is known that air is usually polluted in developed urban areas and issues in industrial areas. Emissions damage the health of humans, animals, ecosystems as a whole and other structures. Since air pollutants know no boundaries, other than local pollution, TPPs have regional and global impact. As the future of the human race, from the aspect of supplying with the energy, is filled with lots of uncertainties, period of transition until 2050 will be characterized by significant rhythm of changes and by rapturous events [1, 2]. Recent studies have also tried to quantify the health effects caused by ambient air pollution; for example, within the “Global Burden of Disease” project of the World Health Organization (WHO), it has been estimated that worldwide, close to 6.4 million years of healthy life are lost due to long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter. The three most pollutants are linked by complex atmospheric chemistry. Air pollution exists as a complex mixture and that effects attributed to O3 , NOx , CO2 may be influenced by the underlying toxicity of the full mixture of all air pollutants. The terminology and methods used to characterize the combined effects of two or more pollutants or other hazards have been poorly standardized with substantial blurring of concepts derived from toxicology, biostatistics and epidemiology [3]. Every coal-based energy corporation is aware of the enormous impacts on the environment and is necessarily obligated to protect and advance new methods of preserving the environment. One way to further apply the classic technologies for electricity generation for a long-term perspective is the regular control of CO2 emissions from power plants, especially those that run on coal as fuel, which would make CO2 isolation and use this for other purposes. CO2 has recently become one of the major significant factors that is affecting global warming. Within this, KEK must act in accordance with applicable laws, standards and directives of Kosovo and international ones in the field of [4–6]: • environmental protection, which should constantly strive to reduce negative environmental impacts and improve environmental performance. • monitors, which acts preventively and continuously monitors emissions to air, water and soil, preserves biodiversity and reduces noise levels. • for the optimal, rational and responsible use of natural resources as well as additional raw materials.

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• establishing mechanisms of regular control of all activities through internal and external audits and inspections as. • efficient reporting, documentation, information and communication with the competent authorities and other actors acting in the protection of the environment. • that will make continuous efforts to improve the composition of the staff that manages the environment as well as the continuous raising of the level of environmental awareness in all working units.

25.2 Air Measurements and Analysis Kosovo Energy Corporation (KEK) consists of two power plants: power plant “Kosovo A” (TC-A) and power plant (TC-B) “Kosovo B” (TC-B). The power plant “Kosovo A” consists of five operating units known as: A1, A2, A3, A4 and A5. Working units A1 and A2 are out of order, while working units A3, A4 and A5 are functional with a design power of 610 MWh; and according to the current production plan are in service and usually one of them is a “hot” reserve. The “Kosovo B” power plant has greater opportunities for electricity production. It consists of two operating units: B1 and B2, with a production capacity of 678 MWh. Coal as a raw material in Kosovo power plants belongs to the type of lignite and has a black color. During the process of burning coal in boilers, bottom ash and fly ash in the form of granules are produced. The amount produced depends mainly on the content of non-combustible substances in coal, usually inorganic substances. The bottom ash appears as fine sand, while the ash particle size ranges between 30 and 5 (µ) [7]. The emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) is based on the composition of organic sulfur in coal, as well as the alkaline character of coal, respectively; self-desulfurization is carried out inside the boiler. Neither in TPP “Kosovo A” nor in TPP “Kosovo B” are installed SO2 desulfurizers). In TPP “Kosovo A” SO2 emissions are calculated, while in TPP “Kosovo B” are located analyzers for continuous measurement of sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) emissions [8]. NOx emission is caused by the combustion of nitrogen contained in coal and by the presence of nitrogen in the combustion air. In TPP “Kosovo A” and TPP “Kosovo B,” no method is used to reduce NOx emissions. In TPP “Kosovo A,” NOx emissions are calculated, while in TPP “Kosovo B,” there are located analyzers for continuous measurement of NOx emissions. CO2 emissions are proportional to the carbon content of the fuel and the quality of the fuels burned. CO2 emission in TPP “Kosovo A” is based on calculations according to the quality of lignite and the strength of the blocks based on the stoichiometric ratios of the chemical reaction, while in TPP “Kosovo B,” there are located analyzers for continuous measurement of CO2 emissions [9–12].

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25.2.1 Air Quality Standards Air quality protection in European Union is defined by European Directive on Ambient Air Quality and Cleaner Air for Europe (2008/50/EC), also known as the CAFE Directive. Air quality standards from the CAFE Directive have been transposed into Kosovo legislation by the Law on Air protection from Pollution (No. 03/L-160) and the administrative instruction on limited values of air quality (No. 02/2011). CAFE Directive sets three types of air quality standards: Limit value means a pollutant concentration in ambient air which is set on the basis of scientific knowledge, with the aim of avoiding, preventing or reducing harmful effects on human health and/or the environment as a whole, to be attained within a given period and not to be exceeded once attained. Limit values are set for common air pollutants such as SO2 , NO2 , benzene, CO, lead, PM10 and PM2.5 [13]. Target value means a pollutant concentration in ambient air which is set on the basis of scientific knowledge, with the aim of avoiding, preventing or reducing harmful effects on human health and/or the environment as a whole, to be attained where possible over a given period. Target values are set for ozone and PM2.5 . Long-term objective means a pollutant concentration in ambient air to be attained in the long term, with the aim of providing effective protection of human health and the environment. For now, the long-term objective is set only for ozone [14] (Tables 25.1 and 25.2). The standards for the protection of vegetation and natural ecosystems are given in Table 25.3 [15]. Sampling points targeted at the protection of vegetation and natural ecosystems shall be sited more than 20 km from agglomeration or more than 5 km from build-up areas (such as industrial facilities, motorways or major road with traffic greater 50,000 vehicles per day). AOT40 (expressed in (µg/m3 ) hours) means the sum of the difference between hourly concentrations greater than 80 µg/m3 (= 40 parts per billion) and 80 µg/m3 over a given period using only the one-hour values measured between 8.00 and 20.00 of Central European Time (CET) each day. The “WHO Air quality guidelines for particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and Sulfur dioxide—Global update 2005” provide an assessment of health effects of air pollution and thresholds for pollution levels harmful for health. For other pollutants, guideline values are provided in Air Quality Guidelines for Europe— Second edition. The WHO’s air quality guideline values for selected pollutants are presented in Table 25.4. Numerical air quality guidelines either indicate levels combined with exposure times at which no adverse effect is expected in terms of non-carcinogenic endpoints. The WHO air quality guidelines are intended to offer guidance in reducing the health impact of air pollution. These guidelines intended to inform policymakers and provide appropriate targets for air quality management worldwide. They are based on the scientific evidence relating to air pollution and its health consequences. In the “global update 2005” document, the WHO recognizes that “when formulating policy targets, governments should consider their own local circumstances carefully before adopting the guidelines directly as legally based standards.” For some pollutants, EU legislation allows a limited number of exceedances which means that the

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Table 25.1 Limit values for protection of human health Averaging period

Limit value (with margin of tolerance)

Date by which limit value is to be meta

Sulfur dioxide One hour

350 mg/m3 not to be exceeded 1 January 2021 more than 24 times per calendar year

One day

125 µg/m3 not to be exceeded more than 3 times per calendar year

1 January 2021

Nitrogen dioxide One hour

200 µg/m3 not to be exceeded 1 January 2021 more than 18 times per calendar year

Calendar year

40 µg/m3

1 January 2021

10 mg/m3

1 January 2021

0.5 µg/m3

1 January 2021

Carbon monoxide Maximum daily eight-hour mean Lead Calendar year PM 10 One day

50 µg/m3 not to be exceeded 1 January 2021 more than 35 times per calendar year

Calendar year

40 µg/m3

1 January 2021

20 µg/m3

1 January 2021

PM 2.5 Calendar year

Table 25.2 Target value and long-term objectives for ozone for the protection of human health Averaging period

Target value

Ozone Maximum daily eight-hour mean

120 µg/m3 not to be exceeded on more than 25 days a calendar year averaged over three years

WHO standards are stringent. The difference between the EU and WHO standards is most notable for PM10 and PM2.5 limit values [16].

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Table 25.3 Target values, critical values and long-term objectives for protection of vegetation Pollutant/objective

Averaging period

Critical level

Sulfur dioxide

Calendar year and winter (1 October–31 March)

25 µg/m3

Oxides of nitrogen

Calendar year

30 µg/m3

Pollutant/objective

Averaging period

Target value

Ozone

May–July 2021

AOT40 (calculated from 1-h values) 18,000 µg/m3 h averaged over five years

Pollutant/objective

Averaging period

Long-term objective

Ozone

Maximum daily eight-hour mean within a calendar year

AOT40 (calculated from 1-h values) 6000 µg/m3 h

Table 25.4 World Health Organization air quality guidelines Air pollutant

Averaging time WHO guideline value Reference

PM2.5

Annual mean

10 µg/m3 µg/m3

24-h mean

25

Annual mean

20 µg/m3

24-h mean

50 µg/m3

Ozone

8-h mean

100 µg/m3

Nitrogen dioxide

Annual mean

40 µg/m3

1-h mean

200 µg/m3

24-h mean

20 µg/m3

10-min mean

500 µg/m3

Annual mean

5 ng/m3

PM10

Sulfur dioxide Cadmium

Carbon monoxide 1-h

30

mg/m3

8h

10 mg/m3

Lead

Annual mean

0.5 µg/m3

Mercury

Annual mean

1 µg/m3

WHO Air quality guidelines for particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide—global update 2005

Air quality guidelines for Europe—second edition

25.2.2 Air Quality Monitoring Locations of air quality monitoring stations in the area of influence are presented in Table 25.5. Two of the stations are urban background (Rilindja) and the suburban background (IHMK), while the three industrial background stations are located in the KEK area (Dardhishtë, Palaj and Obiliq). The monitoring program is managed by the MESP and KEPA, while the HMIK is responsible for station operation and data validation [17].

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Table 25.5 Air quality monitoring stations near the area of influence Name of the monitoring station

Code of the station

Location

Responsible authority

Measured parameters

Type of the area

IHMK

KS0101

IHMK, Pristina

IHMK

PM10 , PM2.5 , Urban SO2 , NOx , O3 , CO

Obiliq

KS0110

Family Health Center

HMK

PM10 , PM2.5 , Industrial SO2 , NOx , O3 , CO

Dardhishtë

KS0111

Primary school

IHMK

PM10 , PM2.5 , Industrial SO2 , NOx , O3 , CO

Palaj

KS0112

Kosova Mont

IHMK

PM10 , PM2.5 , Industrial SO2 , NO2 , O3 , CO

25.3 Air Quality Assessment of PM10 and PM2.5 Particulates The analysis of the data on PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations in 2021 at abovementioned air quality monitoring stations is given in Figs. 25.1, 25.2, 25.3 and 25.4. As it can be seen, in 2021, at almost all monitoring stations, the exceedance of limit value (LV) was observed for both parameters PM10 and PM2.5 (annual LV for PM10 is 40 µg/m3 , and for PM2.5 , annual LV is 25 µg/m3 ). The worst situation is observed at monitoring stations Obiliq and Dardhishte, and it is present during whole year. The exceedance is also present during summer period which is usually less loaded than winter time when bad weather conditions and biomass burning in households cause higher concentration of particulates in the air [18].

Fig. 25.1 IHMK—PM10 and PM2.5

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Fig. 25.2 Obiliq—PM10 and PM2.5

Fig. 25.3 Dardhishtë—PM10 and PM2.5

Fig. 25.4 Palaj—PM10 and PM2.5

25.3.1 Emissions to Air Emissions from mining activities: The major influence on air quality from mining activities is dust emissions (term dust refers to particulates suspended in atmosphere). Dust consists of particulates of various dimensions: particulates larger than 10 µm, PM10 particulates smaller than 10 µm and PM2.5 particulates smaller than 2.5 µm. TSP represents total suspended particulates. The mine area represents “area” emission source which can be called “fugitive source” differently to “stack point sources” that represents those sources that are ducted to and emit through a stack of some sort. The activities within the mining area that are the main source of dust emissions are excavation, manipulation and transportation of lignite and overburden as well as wind erosion of lignite and overburden layer. The main current mining equipment

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in the Sibovc mine is bucket wheel excavators (BWE), belt conveyor systems and spreaders. The same type of continuous mining equipment is used for lignite and for overburden operations. As mining equipment is operated inside the mine, dust that it generates will be mainly limited to the mine site [19] (Table 25.6). Emissions of air pollutants decreased as production decreased in 2020 in comparison to 2021 and are larger for Kosovo B. Overall emissions of dust are shown in Fig. 25.5. Table 25.6 Annual production and emissions of main pollutants in 2020/21 from TPP A and TPP B Production 2020

Dust 2021

MW/h

SO2

NOx

2020 2021 2020 2021 2020

CO2 2021

2020

2021

t/year

Emission of pollutants from TPP Kosovo A A3

458,139

668,231

97

A4

824,241

879,870

A5

801,622

766,707

Total 2,084,002 2,314,809

144

709

967

1401

2363

510,746

875,420

165

161 1407 1229

2924

3166 1,050,770 1,169,346

143

139 1477 1095

2661

2921

405

444 3593 3292

6986

8450 2,411,174 3,188,870

849,658 1,144,104

Emission of pollutants from TPP Kosovo B B1

1,857,690 1,619,950 2628 3210 4435 3443

6673

6974 2,245,401 2,099,531

B2

1,784,272 2,014,009 2633 3254 3705 3555

5936

7007 1,894,311 2,199,983

Total 3,641,962 3,928,071 5261 6464 8140 6998 12,609 13,981 4,139,712 4,299,514

Fig. 25.5 Annual emissions of dust from power plants Kosovo A and Kosovo B in 2020 and 2021

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25.4 Conclusions Current overall efficiency for energy production of 26.96 (%) in TPP “Kosovo A” and 32.71 (%) in TPP “Kosovo B” should be increased, for economic and environmental reasons, close to the initial design performance of 37 (%) in TC-A and 39–40 (%) in TC-B. This means that the leakage of the total mass of pollutants of TPP “Kosovo B” (per unit of electricity produced) is up to 20 (%) higher compared to operation by design projectors, so the emission of pollutants is higher, especially CO2 . Therefore, as a result of exploitation of the maximum possible efficiency of the energy produced, we also have the proportional reduction of pollution. All actions will be taken to bring the efficiency of the operating units of TPP “Kosovo A” and TPP “Kosovo B” closer to the projected value. In the current conditions, the maximum energy produced per unit in TPP “Kosovo A” is about 160 (MWe), while lignite consumption was about 1.47 (t/MWe), with a gross efficiency of 25.75–26.66 (%). It should be noted that specific emissions of CO2 , SO2 , NOx from power plants and calculation of dust as mass (quantity) at (t/MWh) are directly proportional to the fuel consumption of the plant, which is heating rate and efficiency. The total current mass of pollutants determines the emission intensity of smoke and ambient air quality, means emission values as the basic level of concentrations and impact on the environment through the disposal of pollutants, as well as the transport of a long range of pollutants. In TPP “Kosovo B,” according to the designed design, fuel consumption is: 1.13 (t/MWhe), giving power plant heat rate of 8990 (kJth/kWhe) and gross efficiency of 40 (%) calculated as (Mwe gross/MWth). This performance was demonstrated in the guarantee tests in 1984. In the current conditions, the maximum energy gained respectively produced is 293 (MWe). Consumed fuel consumption (marked) is in the range of 1.24–1.34 (t/MWhe), giving the power plant a heat rate of 9816–10,586 (kJth/kWhe), and gross efficiency from 32.60 to 32.82 (%).

References 1. Schmoe, L., Bechtel: IGCC—expected plant availabilities and efficiencies. Presentation at Platts IGCC Symposium. Pittsburgh, 2–3 June 2005 2. Kokaj, A., Maloku, B., Bajraktari, H.: A cost oriented model for defining the accurate level of pollution. IFAC Pap. Online 52(25), 19–22 (2019) 3. Technology Roadmap: High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Coal-Fired Power Generation, pp. 1– 38. International Energy Agency IEA, Paris, France (2012) 4. Ezzati, M., et al.: Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease. Lancet 360, 1347–1360 (2002) 5. Schröder, A., Traber, T., Kemfert, C.: Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives in Europe: Climate Policy and Technology Scenarios until 2050 in the Model EMELIE-ESY1, pp. 1–18. German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Berlin, Berlin (2013) 6. WHO: World health report 2002. World Health Organization, Geneva (2002) 7. Mauderly, J.L.: Toxicological approaches to complex mixtures. Environ. Health Perspect. 101, 155–165 (1993)

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8. Rennings, K., Markewitz, P., Vögele, S.: How clean is clean? Incremental versus radical technological change in coal-fired power plants. Discussion Paper No. 09-021. ZEW Centre for European Economic Research. ftp://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp09021.pdf 9. Greenland, S.: Basic problems in interaction assessment. Environ. Health Perspect. 1993(101), 59–66 (1993) 10. Annual European Union Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990–2010 and Inventory Report 2012. EEA (2012), http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-uniongreenhouse-gas-inv entory-2012 11. “Energy Roadmap 2050”: European Commission—EC, Brussels (2011) 12. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) Kosovo Power Project Rev. 6, Orion 3E Consortium, EKONERG, Mining Institute Tuzla and Hidroing DK, 24 Aug 2016 13. Spatial Plan 2010–2020+, Area of Special Interest: New Mining Field. Institute for Spatial Planning, March 2011 14. Main Mining Plan for New Sibovc Mine, Vattenfall/DMT, July 2005 15. The EEA’s air quality database. https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps 16. EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016 1.B.1.a Coal mining and handling 17. EPA: Mineral products industry. In: Air Emissions Factors and Quantification, AP 42, vol. I, 5th edn. (Chapter 11) 18. EPA: Miscellaneous sources. In: Air Emissions Factors and Quantification, AP 42, vol. I, 5th edn. (Chapter 13) 19. Preparation of a Detailed New Mine Production and Investment Plan Procurement Number: KEK-K 16 402 312 Draft Final Report Part IV Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (2018)

Chapter 26

Toward Complete Social Integration of Armed Forces in the Face of the Current Disruptive Environment Manuel Antonio Fernández-Villacañas Marín and Juan José Morillas Guerrero Abstract During the last two decades, the security landscape has been transforming exponentially, both nationally and globally. It has have joined the traditional territorial risks that formed the core of the missions assigned to the armed forces, a polyhedral and synergistic set of potentially devastating new threats, such as natural disasters and pandemics, or other increasingly present social phenomena, such as global terrorism and organized crime, drug trafficking, cyberattacks, political corruption, failures in global governance, lack of basic supplies of all kinds and inflationary induction, manipulation of information, economic and financial instability, social instability, many of which, in addition to being supported by certain nations, are fundamentally catalyzed by anonymous groups willing to achieve the imposition of a new world order at the cost of international social destabilization and insecurity. Faced with this new disruptive environment, it is necessary to promote a process of in-depth review of the strategic concept of global security, in addition to a necessary framework of full international collaboration, toward the necessary structural transformation of security and defense organizations, integrating military capabilities with police and with others of the civil administration in the public and even private sectors. The necessary precondition is the social integration of the military forces through the implementation of sociological strategies that allow their confluence and identification with civil society, which is analyzed in this research.

M. A. F.-V. Marín (B) Department of Business Economics, School of Economics and Business, Universidad San, Pablo-CEU, CEU Universities, Madrid, Spain e-mail: [email protected] J. J. M. Guerrero Higher Technical School of Aeronautical and Space Engineering, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_26

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26.1 Introduction The global Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in the middle of Europe, have revealed the high vulnerability of the community of Western countries to this type of threat, as well as the inability of many nations to respond effectively to the current environment turbulent, increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. The pandemic revealed that the response and crisis management capacity of the governments of many Western countries were improvised late, ineffective, and insufficient, showing a clear inability to respond effectively to these new crises generated by growing environmental uncertainty [1]. In addition, this pandemic could well be the result of a global change that is very rapidly altering the relationship between human beings and their environment, an aspect that could be the trigger for other crises related to environmental imbalance [2]. On the other hand, the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that the traditional risks and threats, which have justified the existence and missions assigned to the military forces since the birth of the nation-state, are still very present. It is not an exaggeration to say that the global pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have completely disrupted the socioeconomic and political spheres of the international arena. They are the result of an evolutionary process of global degradation that has been in the making for some time, a process that has become an exponential source of devastation. In this new disruptive international scenario, phenomena such as the use and abuse of resource consumption that generate large imbalances in ecosystems, the great migratory processes that imply large population movements, the population aging of the most advanced countries, the tendency to concentrate the population of many countries in large urban centers, climate change and the consequent increase in temperatures are some of the most debilitating factors. Until now, the perspective of a globalized world had provided an adequate framework for economic relations that generate wealth and progress for nations [3]. However, the traditional coexistence under the mantle of globalization of two worlds, one advanced and stable and the other backward and violent, should have compromised to a much greater extent, in a time of huge economic expansion, those who have enjoyed peace, wealth, and security, with whom they have lacked the necessary stability to be able to cover their most basic needs for subsistence, coexistence, and well-being. The result of all these is the exponential evolution of a polyhedral and synergistic set of potentially devastating new threats, among others, natural disasters and environmental disasters caused by man, pandemics, the water crisis, the increasingly extreme climate, the loss of biodiversity, etc., or other increasingly present socioeconomic phenomena, such as global terrorism and organized crime, drug trafficking, cyberattacks, political corruption, failures in global governance, lack of basic supplies of all kinds and the inflationary incentive, the manipulation of information, economic and financial instability, social instability, many of which, in addition to being supported by certain nations, are fundamentally catalyzed by anonymous groups located throughout the world, willing to achieve the imposition of a new world order at the cost of destabilization and social insecurity [4]. All these framed in a

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worrying crisis of democratic representation of traditional political parties that have caused the rise of extreme populism. It seems that humanity will be condemned in the coming years to have to live with a succession of serious crises that will give rise to an almost permanent emergency [5]. This extraordinary new situation is beginning to drive a review process of the global socioeconomic system fully focused on the principles of sustainability [6, 7]. Specifically, security and defense organizations have developed a profound transformation and adjustment effort for two decades to adapt to the changes, especially those inherent to technological progress, that have occurred in their international environment. The new situation is driving an in-depth review process of the strategic concept of global security based on international collaboration. It is necessary to promote the structural transformation of security and defense organizations to generate new capabilities that add to the traditional ones and develop adequate non-politicized leadership, integrating military, and police capabilities with others from the civil administration of the public and even private sectors. The necessary precondition to be able to address this transformation is the social integration of the military, for which the use of sociological research and the application of social change strategies are essential, that allow the full confluence and identification of military with society. Objectives, Methodology, and Contents The objective of this research has been to reflect sociologically on the implications of the problem of social isolation versus the social integration of the armed forces within the framework of traditional explanatory models of the problem but adapted to the current situation. The investigation has made it possible to specify a series of aspects that must be considered when addressing the problem of the social integration of the military forces in each nation. The research has been developed under an exploratory and explanatory methodology to understand the problem posed. The reviewed literature has been used to synthesize the essential concepts and approaches on the investigated problem. The work first carries out a review of the literature regarding the definition of the general approach and the main theories related to the relations between the armed forces and society, focusing on the method for the analysis of how to achieve the complete social integration of the military establishment. Secondly, the generic process of professionalization of the armed forces is discussed, as an intermediate solution between the proposals of the institutional and occupational models, and consequently, determining the main elements of a generic action strategy. Finally, the main conclusions derived from the research carried out are provided.

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26.2 Literature Review and Method Since the beginning of the first social groups and their structuring into national entities, the military forces have been created and designed based on the risks and threats detected to protect the society they serve, establishing a close relationship between military and civil society. Thus, for example, Sun Tzu in The Art of War spoke of the submission of the military to the state: “If it is not in the interest of the State, do not act” [8], or Clausewitz in On War affirmed “War it is the continuation of politics by other means” referring to the central political aspects and social objectives imbricated in all conflicts [9]. Thus, on the one hand, the role of the military as protectors of society and, on the other, the responsibility of society before the military, its recognition, and the resources that have been assigned to them generate a permanent and unfinished debate that makes up the dynamic and interdisciplinary field of study of the relations between military forces and society [10]. As Shields [11] points out, the study of military–society relations examines the issues that arise when “the military and civilian sectors negotiate their shared role in society and on the world stage”. His field of study traditionally incorporates spaces where both interact and influence each other. As shown in Fig. 26.1, where the dotted lines represent the fluid and dynamic nature of the relationship, external factors such as the security environment, anthropological culture, and technology, among others, create flows that influence both. Also, the size of the overlap can vary, as it happens in cases of conflict [10]. The evolution toward the full integration of the military in the society to which they belong and serve implies a process of mutual adaptation on both sides and the development of a cultural change, which in most countries has occurred through the implementation of professionalization processes. The separation of civil functions of a political nature and military functions of an operational nature is the basis of civil–military relations [12]. In this way, the laws and the main state institutions in consolidated democracies prioritize the principle of responsibility of the political authority over national security decisions and those corresponding to the use of force, strictly military, which encompass doctrine, preparation of forces, tactics for the use of weapons, operational logistics, as well as the training of personnel and their training.

Fig. 26.1 Evolution of the process of social integration of military, in the permeable space where both entities interact [10]

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It must be emphasized that a public divergence in views or preferences between civilian authorities and military elites can profoundly undermine civil–military relations. With some frequency, there has been subversion in certain countries with poorly consolidated democracies in the application of this principle of subordination of military power to civil power. This subversion corresponds to the politicization of high-ranking military, whose elites get involved in political games, even unethical ones, against their own military values and convictions, generally in exchange for an appointment for which they have little merit or to keep the charge. Obviously, resigning from a military charge is a controversial move. While some authors consider that it is a rare but important decision that should be used by high-ranking officers to demonstrate moral strength and draw attention to policies that could threaten innocent lives [13], other authors consider that military personnel who resign from their positions are unduly inserted in a political sphere that does not correspond to them, undermining the necessary control of democratic civil power [14]. In any case, the politicization of the appointment to high military positions of profiles close to political power, sometime servile and mediocre, also deteriorates the civic–military relationship and, what is more serious, the morale of the entire military group. There are several explanatory theories about the proper functioning of civil–military relations in terms of interpersonal relationships between high-ranking civil and military officials. Some of them are as follows: • Herspring [15] focuses on the personal relationship between elite civilian and military leaders. Civilian leaders rely on the advice of the military elite well versed in the geopolitical environment. This approach allowed its author to discover that strong civilian leaders who respect military culture are the most capable of weathering these conflicts. • Brooks [16], for his part, discusses how the interaction of the civil and military sectors can affect outcomes when nations must strategically assess their alternatives to interstate conflict. A flawed strategic assessment can lead to inept international deliberations and unnecessary wars. This approach identifies information sharing, strategic coordination, authorization, and structural competition as components of strategic assessment. Whether accepted or not, military leaders must be able to share their point of view honestly, which leads to effective information sharing. For its part, strategic coordination consists of institutional structures that evaluate alternative strategic options, produce operational plans, and ensure alignment between political objectives and military operations. All of these theoretically produce direct exchanges about assumptions and risks. Third, the immediate problems of translating strategy into action are effectively handled through authorization. Finally, the military’s capacity for self-organization is essential, as is the case with policies to promote female officers linked to competence and not to cronyism or political influence. • On the other hand, Feaver [17] describes civil–military relations as a strategic exchange where civilian directors depend on military agents to implement political directives. When military and civilian preferences align, the military willingly

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obeys orders. Alternatively, when preferences become skewed, the military has an incentive to circumvent or undermine civilian directives. • Finally, Schiff [18] proposes a theory centered on the agreement of the political and military elites with the citizenry around four dimensions that determine the role and function of the armed forces in society: the social composition of the military group, the decision policy preparation process, the method of recruitment, and the military style in general. According to this theory, when the level of agreement in relation to these four dimensions is high, military intervention is less likely. Although this theory would also be valid for the improvement of civil–military relations in mature democracies, it is of greater interest in the case of emerging democracies and unstable states where the threats of a coup are greater [19]. However, the achievement of full social integration of the armed forces goes beyond the individual interpersonal relationships between senior civil and military officials, making it necessary to assume a sociological approach at the national and international organizational levels, which affects globality of the groups and discusses a sociological strategy that allows the mutual convergence and identification of the military and civil society.

26.3 Discussion and Result: Institutional Versus Occupational Models Traditionally, as has been said, a permanent problem common to most countries has been the lack of social integration of their armed forces, or in other words, the isolation of the military from its social environment [20, 21]. In this way, it has been a permanent objective of democratic governments to increase the integration between the military and society, an objective that in general is very difficult to achieve. It seems that the approach of Janowitz [22], who refers in his work to this isolation, highlighting the closed nature of the military community, has been maintained for decades, faithfully preserved in the purest tradition, speaking more of a military condition than of a military profession: “…the military profession is more than a profession, it is a whole lifestyle…” that “…by uniting the military community internally, its integration into civil society is frustrated”. In addition, the approach tends to perpetuate itself in a permanent interrelation between professional lives that give full meaning to the totality of private life, which favors the closed nature of the military community. Isolation, inbreeding, professional morality, feelings of solidarity, and camaraderie have traditionally led the military institution to automatism and self-sufficiency in the face of the different foreign society from which it differs [20]. But, this isolation is not an exclusive characteristic of the military but is present in any complex social organization. It can be generally admitted that complex social organizations tend to isolate themselves relatively from the environment to assert their uniqueness and use secrecy as a resource in their relationship with the other elements of the environment. Survival reasons explain the refusal of this type of

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complex organization to project itself toward the surrounding social environment. The logical environmental uncertainty that occurs because of this situation tries to be minimized by the military forces by controlling their context [23], systematically capturing through their intelligence systems the greatest amount of information that can be obtained. consider of interest for its organizational purposes. In summary, we can conclude that the military forces have a traditional and permanent tendency to isolate themselves from civil society [24], which makes it clear that there is a need to build a permanent and progressive understanding, communication, and rapprochement between both social groups. Until the end of the Second World War, the armed forces of Western countries in general perfectly adapted to the model of social integration described by Huntington [12], in which the fundamental thing was their mentality, composed of the values, attitudes, and perspectives inherent in the military… function and deductibles of its nature. The armies will be characterized by having broad autonomy within their own scope of action, although always under the necessary control of the civil power, as we have explained previously, a control that should never mean interference or meddling in affairs or fields of action. Typical of professional soldiers. After the Second World War, in general, a strong process of demobilization of the great armies took place, which, together with the influences exerted by the exponential technological development and the normalization of civil life in many of its functions and tasks, produced that the military institution in most democratic countries folds in on itself. The military seeks and tries other forms of social integration, according to which the military profession constitutes one more occupation than those offered in civil society, with which it is equated in all kinds of characteristics (legitimacy, commitment, economic compensation, support social, dignity) [25]. According to the thesis of Moskos and Wood [26], it is the transition from an institutional model to an occupational one. Indeed, in recent decades, there have been certain social trends that push toward the identification of the military with occupational groups like those that exist in a broader society, as opposed to traditional trends in favor of institutional affinity (Fig. 26.2). The most important question that arises is whether the bias toward civilians makes any real difference to military effectiveness. To answer this question, the advantages of one or another model must be analyzed, and consequently, the conclusions can be obtained in this regard. In this sense, we must analyze three fundamental areas: the execution of the mission, the motivation of the members of the military forces, and professional responsibility. From the point of view of mission execution, the basic hypothesis is that institutional identification generates greater organizational commitment and better results than occupational identification. The armed forces demand of their members, a determined behavior that can never serve individual interests, at least in a strictly economic sense. The internalization of institutional values implies an almost unlimited series of definitions of tasks and ways of carrying them out. On the contrary, the logic of occupationalism consists of establishing limits for each task and creating standards for its execution that, if fulfilled, imply adequate performance. Second, from the point of view of motivation, occupationalism is the masking of organizational events, which

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Fig. 26.2 Military professionalization and social integration [27]

replace the intrinsic motivation of an institution with the extrinsic motivation of an occupation. That is, the motivation that exists in the acts obey personal values for behavior due to the perception of a salary. Finally, as regards professional liability, it is somewhat more insidious, leading to undermining military professionalism. If military functions can be reduced to a monetary magnitude, the final decision on military organization and personnel will rest with economic analysts of costs and benefits; decisions no longer belong to the military profession. The institutional approach, on the contrary, never loses sight of the exceptionality of the military organization in a democratic society. The nation has entrusted to its military responsibilities that few, if any, are found in civilian life, that is, the defense of national interests and the transcendental real possibility that its members risk their lives and physical integrity. Between one and the other of the two extreme conceptions exposed, Janowits [22] proposes a third way halfway, as shown in Fig. 26.2. Thus, while a practical professional approach is preserved in the armed forces, but in which the traditional values and attitudes of the military institution are rooted, a clear nuance of occupation is incorporated, through which the military career becomes in a first stage or definitive activity of their professional life. In this orientation, it is especially important that the military can be socially representative of the citizen they serve, preventing the military profession from becoming an isolated clique and perpetuating itself [22]. Janowits also had the insight to anticipate certain events or circumstances that have long been a reality in most modern armies: the decline of mass armies, the end of conscription, the change in the role of the military in modern society that goes from being a “hero” to a “manager”, as well as the appearance of new missions for the armed forces, more police than military, always prepared to act, but committed to the use of a minimum dose of violence. In this line of thought, currently updated, the development of a new professionalization strategy would imply that the role of the military must go far beyond the mere administration of the force in a collaborative manner, to begin to actively participate and even be capable of leading security initiatives in the face of the devastating risks and threats of the current disruptive

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environment, evolving toward the use of intelligence and strategic anticipation as the main “weapons”. In any case, there seems to be consensus on the unique character of the military profession. In the opinion of Sarkesian and Connor [28], there are six key elements that are essential to shape the character of the military profession: • The military profession has a very defined area of competence in its traditional approach, which is based on expert knowledge. • It is necessary to maintain a continuing educational system for the military, specifically designed to maintain professional competence. • The military profession has an obligation to society and must serve it without worrying about remuneration, and it must be society, through its representatives, who establishes it equitably. • The military profession has a system of essential values that must be perpetuated in its professional character, as well as in the establishment and maintenance of legitimate relations with society. • It is bounded by a stable institutional framework, within which the profession functions. • The profession has control over the system of rewards and punishments and can determine the quality of those who enter the profession. There are still orthodox who maintains that the military is there to maintain peace using force, that is, to fight and not to interfere managing intelligence systems, acting against natural disasters or restoring political, economic, sanitary, or society order of a country. The new missions that must be assigned to the armed forces require a profound reorganization, both structural and cultural. Full military professionalization is the only path capable of facing these new challenges, and furthermore, from a clear perspective of social integration of military identity and culture, which is obtained as a synthesis of the necessary transformation process. In the current disruptive environment, increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous, the nation-states propose complex transfers of sovereignty toward the outside and toward the inside, identifying new spaces of non-identity sovereignty, such as food, energy, or water, with an internal sense and foreign policy in which powerful private entities operate autonomously and without limitations, capable of managing governments at will, conditioning the strategic objectives of the permanent actors of the nations, and revealing the anarchy and irrationality. This is a new world order in which particularisms and imposed sociocultural extravagances threaten to deteriorate the social cohesion that nation-states have traditionally fostered so much. In addition, the territorial minorities reject an integrated cultural identity, rewriting their history and proclaiming their exclusionary ideals, exclusively using their own languages, and proposing separate projects for the future. In accordance with all this, war evolves toward the hybrid, ceasing to be a conflict of a nature totally different from any other and becoming the other end of the continuum that begins with police action.

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26.4 Conclusions The global security scenario has undergone a major transformation because of the appearance of a disruptive environment of exponential evolution, with a polyhedral and synergistic set of new potentially devastating threats. It is necessary to promote a process of in-depth review of the strategic concept of global security, promoting the necessary structural transformation of security and defense organizations and integrating military capabilities with those of the police and with others of the civil administration in the public sector and even private. The necessary precondition is the social integration of the military forces through the implementation of sociological strategies that allow their confluence and identification with civil society. Consequently, the development of a new professionalization strategy is considered necessary, halfway between the two extreme conceptions of institutionalist and occupationally, which would imply that the role of the military goes beyond the mere administration of force, to become actively involved and even be able to lead security initiatives in the face of new risks and devastating threats, evolving toward the use of intelligence and strategic anticipation as the main “weapons”.

References 1. Haarhaus, T., Liening, A.: Building dynamic capabilities to cope with environmental uncertainty: the role of strategic foresight. Pronóstico Tecnol. Cambio Soc. 155(3):120033 (2000) 2. World Health Organization: Climate change and human health. In: Risks and Responses. United Nations, New York City, USA (2000) 3. Marín, M.A.F.-V.: La Nueva Economía de la Defensa en un Nuevo Orden Mundial. Revista de Aeronáutica y Astronáutica. Ejército del Aire de España, Madrid, Spain, June 2017 4. Marín, M.A.F.-V.: The new concept of disruptive logistics: global sustainable logistics 4.0 in a future post-new world economic order. In: Saiz-Alvarez, J.M. (ed.) Handbook of Research on Emerging Business Models and the New World Economic Order, pp. 99–124. IGI Global (2022). https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-7689-2.ch006 5. World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2020, 15th edn. WEF (2020). https://www3. weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf 6. World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2021, 16th edn. WEF (2021). https://www3. weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2021.pdf 7. World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2022: Worlds Apart, 17th edn. WEF (2022). https://www.marshmclennan.com/content/dam/mmc-web/insights/publications/2022/ global-risks-report-2022/global-risks-report-2022.pdf 8. Tzu, S.: The Art of War (trans: Nylan, M.). W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., New York, USA (2020) 9. Clausewitz, C.V.: On War (trans: Howard, M., Paret, P.). Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA (1984) 10. Shields, P.M.: Dynamic intersection of military and society. In: Sookermany A. (ed.) Handbook of Military Sciences. Springer, Cham (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02866-4_31-1 11. Shields, P.: Civil military relations. In: Encyclopedia of Public Administration and Public Policy, 3rd edn. Taylor and Francis, New York, USA (2015)

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12. Huntington, S.P.: The soldier and the state: the theory and politics of civil-military relations. Vintage, New York, USA (1957) 13. Snider, D.M.: Dissent, resignation, and the moral agency of senior military professionals. Armed Forces Soc. 43(1), 5–16 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X16657322 14. Kohn, R.H.: On resignation. Armed Forces Soc. 43(1), 41–52 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1177/ 0095327X16657323 15. Herspring, D.R.: The Pentagon and the Presidency: Civil-Military Relations from FDR to George W. Bush. University Press of Kansas, Lawrence, USA (2005) 16. Brooks, R.A.: Shaping Strategy: The Civil-Military Politics of Strategic Assessment. Princeton University Press, Princeton, USA (2008) 17. Feaver, P.: Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and Civil-Military Relations. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, USA (2003) 18. Schiff, R.L.: Concordance theory, targeted partnership, and counterinsurgency strategy. Armed Forces Soc. 38(2), 318–339 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X11415491 19. Salihu, N.: Concordance civil-military relations in Ghana’s fourth republic. Armed Forces Soc. 46(4), 618–634 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X19841665 20. Fernández, F.: Fuerzas Armadas-Sociedad: del mutuo aislamiento a la progresiva integración. In: Revista de Investigaciones Sociológicas, vol. 36/86, Madrid, Spain (1986) 21. Busquets, J.: El Militar de Carrera en España 1st edn. Editorial Ariel—Colección Demos, Barcelona, Spain (1984) 22. Janowitz, M.: The Professional Soldier: A Social and Political Portrait. The Free Press, Glencoe, Illinois, USA (1960) 23. Bañón, R., Olmeda, J.A.: Análisis Social y Fuerzas Armadas. II Congreso Nacional de Sociología, Santander, Spain (1984) 24. Diez Alegría, M.: Ejército y Sociedad. Alianza Editorial, Madrid, Spain (1972) 25. Berrio, F.J.: La Profesión Militar. In: Profesionalización de las Fuerzas Armadas: problemas sociales, Cuadernos de Estrategia Núm. 98 abril, CESEDEN, Madrid, Spain (1999) 26. Moskos, C.C., Wood, F.R.: Lo Militar ¿Más que una profesión? Secretaría General Técnica, Ministerio de Defensa, Madrid, Spain (1991) 27. Marín, M.A.F.-V.: La Gestión Estratégica de la Imagen Institucional de las Fuerzas Armadas. In: 5th Annual Conference on Research and Education in Defense and Security Studies, REDES 2002, CHDS-NDU, Brasilia, Brazil, 7–10 Aug 2002 28. Sarkesian, S.C., Connor, R.E., Jr.: The US Military Profession into the 21st Century. Frank Cass Publisher, Portland, USA (1999)

Chapter 27

A Hybrid Model to Assist Military Planning Based on Weapons Targets Assignment Problem and Circuits Analogy Raphael Corrêa Silva and Leonardo Antonio Monteiro Pessôa Abstract This paper describes a hybrid model, based on the nonlinear Weapons Target Assignment Problem (WTAP) and a circuit analogy representing the enemy force structure, aiming at assessing the commander’s decisions on the best offensive course of action, based on judgment of the enemy’s logistics and the probability of destruction by the own force units. Such an interpretation is novel and may be used at operational and strategic levels. In order to present a historical appreciation and to provide an application example, a simplified version related to the “Operation Pedestal” is used as a case study, comparing results from the traditional approach and the proposed model.

27.1 Introduction One of the major problems on the military planning is how to devise the operational art into a useful aid for the commander’s decision. This paper provides a meaningful way to fill this gap, using two distinct elements, bridged into a hybrid model. The first, an electromechanical analogy is presented as a meaningful representation of the enemy’s force structure, depicting the logistics importance on planning the military offensive actions. It is important to stress that such representation is useful for the force commander, since it has a great synthesis power. Logically, this does not mean that the analogous components to the electrical circuits elements will have a direct correspondence to the reality, but such approximation may be valuable to compare different courses of action, with proper reasoning, and using a quantitative element to compare them. It R. C. Silva NDCC Almirante Sabóia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20091-000, Brazil e-mail: [email protected] L. A. M. Pessôa (B) Centro de Análises de Sistemas Navais, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20091-000, Brazil e-mail: [email protected]

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_27

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combined such representation to a Weapons Target Assignment Problem (WTAP), a nonlinear optimization problem, which has been studied for several years and defined several sub-problems [8]. In this paper, the connection of this problem to the circuit analogy may not be considered a new sub-problem of the WTAP, but brings to the light a new way to use it for military planning. As to present a methodological structure, this work presents a brief introduction, followed by a theoretical background depicting the analogy to circuits, into the enemy’s force representation, and the Weapons Target Assignment Problem, and finally how they can be combined. Section 27.3 presents the historical background, the classical WTAP formulation, and the new hybrid model, applied to Operation Pedestal Context, and presents the results, followed by a Discussion and a Conclusion.

27.2 Theoretical Background The theoretical background shows the circuit analogy and a brief comment of the Weapons Target Assignment Problem. The complexities of the military planning are an obstacle to be represented in the full extent to the force commander. Therefore, the military planning process devised a proper methodology to achieve its purpose, enabling the information flux, assessing the command decisions, to be simplified and reduce to the most important aspects. Those simplifications include the representation of the enemy’s force. Our proposal uses a circuit analogy bringing important elements for the command decision in a very synthetic way, because it represents the logistics impacts on the military actions development. But, it also brings a stochastic component on the analysis, when compared to a minimal cut set approach. Kline et al. [8] present a complete appreciation of the Weapons Target Assignment Problem (WTAP) which is a nonlinear optimization problem, aimed “to assign available interceptors to incoming missiles so as to minimize the probability of a missile destroying a protected asset” and was initially formulated in 1958 by Manne. There are two different models of WTAP: a static, where the available targets and the probabilities are known in advance, and a dynamic version. A possible formulation for the WTAP is [8]: Let a set of weapons I = 1, . . . , i, . . . , m Those are opposing a set of targets J = 1, . . . , j, . . . , n , each of those with a correspondent military value V j . Supposing that each unit can be assigned to one target, such allocation represented by a binary variable xi j , and the probability of the enemy target j survival, since it is attacked by unit i (xi j = 1) is denoted by pi j . The problem has as objective the minimization of the survival function:  J

Vj

 I

( pi j )xi j

(27.1)

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Subject to the constraint that



xi j = 1, ∀i

321

(27.2)

J

Such formulation is, therefore, a nonlinear optimization problem, and the WTAP is a NP Hard Problem [13]; therefore, a considerable work has been done to use different methods striving for a “quality solution in a reasonable amount of time”. Goal programming [5], fuzzy reasoning [15], evolutionary methods [10], clonal selection algorithm [6], simulated annealing [19], bee colony algorithm [2], swarm [1, 3, 18], decomposition [13], and linearization [12] are some examples. Other improvements are devoted to adapt the objective function, dealing with multiple objectives [7, 11], or adapting for specific contexts as ballistics missiles [17]. WTAP also is meant for quick engagement decision, [9], but is mainly focused on tactical perspective. Therefore this article adapts WTAP for operational and strategic perspectives. As dealing with operational and strategic levels, the weapons are substituted by operative groups or task forces, while the targets are broader objectives. Therefore, the number of objectives is considerably reduced. There are developed approximations [12] for use of linear programming techniques, but for a limited number of attackers and enemies, a brute force algorithm can manage the problem solution in a reasonable time. Nevertheless future works can study the most suitable algorithm to be used for this adaptation. The practical contribution of this paper is not related to a different solution method, but on the objective function adaptation and its linkage to the logistics analysis of the operations theater.

27.2.1 Proposed Hybrid Model Adopting the circuit analogy to represent the enemy’s force, we can infer that the attacker’s objective would be to reduce the available “voltage” of the enemy “motor” on the operations theater. As the configuration of the enemy’s force is represented by a circuit, our proposal interprets the linkage among enemy’s objectives. Thus an independent formulation for each objective is not adherent. And, despite it rises the complexity, provides a novel understanding on how the efforts should be put so as to obtain a decisive advantage. Therefore, instead of considering each attack’s result, weighted for an individual military value Vi j , each attack will represent a variable resistor in the circuit representation. So, for each application, a circuit depiction of the forces and the correspondent logistics dependencies must be represented accordingly. Pj =



( pi j )xi j

(27.3)

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Fig. 27.1 Principal elements for the model construction [14] M

If an attack could reach an unitary probability of objective destruction (i.e., 0% of the objective survival) the correspondence of the model would be an open circuit for that line—and an infinite resistance on the “circuit”. Thus the value to such attack represented by the resistor r j is as follows: rj =

1 − 1. Pj

(27.4)

Each objective that can serve as a logistic base will be represented by a capacitor. Therefore, it represents an accumulation energy element for the war effort and will be in parallel on the circuit. Detailed generator values or the unit’s inherent resistances are not necessary. The objective function will be a comparison of an ideal situation where the resistors will be set to 0, and the resultant potential difference applied to the motor. Figure 27.1 presents the main elements used to build the model. It represents the “battery” which provides the potential to the circuit. The “capacitor” a logistic base which can store energy, and the motor engine, the local war effort. The variable resistor positioned before the capacitor, represents a possible outcome of an attack aimed at the logistic base, “dissipating” the energy available to the capacitor. Such circuit design incorporates explicit analysis of time and distance factors of survival probabilities. On the other hand, it links the logistics planning, represented by a current in the circuits analogy, to target selection, not only by a relative importance, but due the expected impact on the enemy’s “motor” operation.

27.3 Case Study—Operation Pedestal So, as to depict an application close to reality, we compare the results of the WTAP to the hybrid model. Operation Pedestal was the fight to resupply the island of Malta. Malta was a strategic fort for the allies, preventing the Axis to access the Suez canal, while affecting the land battles in northern Africa [4]. By direction of Winston Churchill Malta must successfully be resupplied. Understanding the risk of loosing significant amount of assets, Operation Pedestal com-

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Fig. 27.2 Mediterranean sea. Adapted from [16]

menced with the largest forces fleet mustered up until that time during the war. The fleet, carrying precious cargo to resupply and refuel Malta, had to sail through seas heavily guarded by land bases, air and sub-surface assets [4]. Figure 27.2 presents a geographical perspective. The operation theater to be analyzed is the north of Africa. Using the German perspective, the allied forces have a circuit composed by the following elements. The battery is in Great Britain; the objectives of Gibraltar, Malta, and Alexandria can be represented by capacitors; the “motors” (Land troops) are positioned in the north of Africa; it is possible to attack each base by the supply lines, represented by variable resistors; the German available means are 21 submarines (represented by 7 Submarine Groups—U—3 each), 280 attack airplanes (5 Aerial Attack Units— AT—56 each) and 23 torpedo boats (5 Torpedo Boats Units—Ta 1,2 and 3—with 5 units each and Tb 4 and 5 with 4 units each). Table 27.1 presents the survival probability estimates, and its values were based in expert judgment. Nevertheless, they are intended to represent a personal belief and are not subject to a detailed study. This is an important aspect that can be explored in future papers. It is important to stress that the survival estimate of 1 for the ATs on Gibraltar represents that such allocation is not feasible, due to distance factors, estimated by geographic analysis.

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Table 27.1 Survival probabilities estimate Unit type Gibraltar U1 U2 U3 U4 U5 U6 U7 AT1 AT2 AT3 AT4 AT5 Ta1 Ta2 Ta3 Tb4 Tb5

0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 1 1 1 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.92 0.92

Malta

Alexandria

0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.92 0.92

0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96

Table 27.2 Target designation according WTAP Local

U1

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AT1 AT2 AT3 AT4 AT5 Ta1 Ta2 Ta3 Tb4 Tb5

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27.3.1 Classic WTAP Calculation For the classic WTAP calculation, it is necessary to define the military values of those objectives. The V j estimates are as follows: Gibraltar—9, Malta—8, and Alexandria 7. Using a brute force algorithm, the maximum value of 10.066 is obtained, corresponding to the solution presented on Table 27.2.

27.3.2 Hybrid Model Results Figure 27.3 presents the correspondent circuit. The three capacitors represent the bases of Gibraltar, Malta, and Alexandria, and the motor M1 (British Land Troops)

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Fig. 27.3 Circuit representation [14] R1

R2

R3

1

2

3 M1

M2

Table 27.3 Target designation according hybrid model Local

U1

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AT1 AT2 AT3 AT4 AT5 Ta1 Ta2 Ta3 Tb4 Tb5

Gibraltar

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depicts the allied efforts in the north of Africa in opposition to M2, representing the German motor (German Land troops). The German circuit is simplified, since it is not analyzed. R1, R2, and R3 are the resistors corresponding to the assigned attack units to the aforementioned allied bases . Assuming that the motor has an internal resistance Rm and the battery of the circuit is represented by V battery. The “Potential” applied to the motor, on the ideal situation (resistors set to zero), is V and the current equals: V Rm

(27.5)

Considering an optimal allocation, the equivalent potential applied to the motor is as follows: V (27.6) V − (R1 + R2 + R3). R1 + R2 + R3 + R M Therefore, the objective function is as follows:  min 1 −

(R1 + R2 + R3) R1 + R2 + R3 + R M

 (27.7)

And, considering RM as a constant, it could be further simplified to: max (R1 + R2 + R3)

(27.8)

Table 27.3 presents the suggested allocation results, corresponding to a value of 28,845, using Eq. (27.8)’s simplification.

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27.4 Discussion and Conclusion The hybrid model results clearly diverge from the classic WTAP problem, aiming to “open the circuit”, based on the estimated probabilities and the circuit design. Despite the naive representation of the circuit, and the lack of structure to define the probabilities, it is a clear example of the proposed model use and its intends. The divergence between models happens due to interconnection aspects, as the targets become more relevant for the hybrid model than their independent “value”. Therefore, presenting a bigger picture, suitable for operational/strategic levels. Historically, the Axis recognized the importance of Malta and laid siege to it while implementing an effective blockade. Many allied components were lost in several attempts to resupply Malta until Operation Pedestal. Then, the results make some sense on a historical perspective. The British started with 14 merchants who were flogged, loosing all but five. Three of which arrived heavily damaged from German subs and Axis air raids. Britain also lost a carrier the first day the fleet arrived in the Mediterranean to a German Uboat. Going on to lose two cruisers, one destroyer in the following four days, while sustaining heavy damage to another carrier and four more destroyers. The high cost was worth maintaining the strategic location, enabling Malta to fight on for several months longer [4]. The paper adapts the classic WTAP formulation so as to integrate to a circuit analogy. Such integration provides a way to link the WTAP to logistics aspects. Therefore, it raises the use of WTAP to operational and strategic levels. The objectives and the “weapons” are broader, and their interconnection is represented, striving to reduce the “current” available to the “electrical motor” of the enemy on the operations theater. It replaces the individual military value of each objective for a measure of the desirable effect of the attack. The model also helps a synthesis of the most important elements of the planning, serving also as a communication tool for the staff, while presenting the options to the commanding officer. Another benefit of this perspective is the geographic interaction in the model makes possible to define constraints regarding time and space for target allocation. The case study is simple, but the model allows analysis of more complex operational theaters, with parallel sub-circuits and redundancies. As limitations, this version only has the attacker perspective. Nevertheless, such analogy is considered useful to provide a stochastic perspective and a quantitative element for high-level military planning. Also, the survival probabilities are defined by expert judgment. Therefore, future works can develop a more complex analysis, using an approach to estimate more than one attack, and counter-attacks. Besides a more structured way to define the survival probabilities would be important for more than one step. For complex analysis, it will be important to have a more structured way to define survival probabilities.

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References 1. Cao, M., Fang, W.: Swarm intelligence algorithms for weapon-target assignment in a multilayer defense scenario: a comparative study. Symmetry (Basel) 12(5), 824 (2020) 2. Chang, T., Kong, D., Hao, N., Xu, K., Yang, G.: Solving the dynamic weapon target assignment problem by an improved artificial bee colony algorithm with heuristic factor initialization. Appl. Soft Comput. 70, 845–863 (2018) 3. Fu, G., Wang, C., Zhang, D., Zhao, J., Wang, H.: A multiobjective particle swarm optimization algorithm based on multipopulation coevolution for weapon-target assignment. Math. Probl. Eng. 2019, 1–11 (2019) 4. Hastings, M.: Operation Pedestal: The Fleet That Battled to Malta, 1942 (2021) 5. Hocao˘glu, M.F.: Weapon target assignment optimization for land based multi-air defense systems: a goal programming approach. Comput. Ind. Eng. 128, 681–689 (2019) 6. Hongtao, L., Fengju, K.: Adaptive chaos parallel clonal selection algorithm for objective optimization in WTA application. Optik (Stuttgart) 127(6), 3459–3465 (2016) 7. Hu, X., Luo, P., Zhang, X., Wang, J.: Improved ant colony optimization for weapon-target assignment. Math. Probl. Eng. 2018, 1–14 (2018) 8. Kline, A., Ahner, D., Hill, R.: The weapon-target assignment problem. Comput. Oper. Res. 105, 226–236 (2019) 9. Kline, A.G., Ahner, D.K., Lunday, B.J.: Real-time heuristic algorithms for the static weapon target assignment problem. J. Heuristics 25(3), 377–397 (2018) 10. Lai, C.M., Wu, T.H.: Simplified swarm optimization with initialization scheme for dynamic weapon-target assignment problem. Appl. Soft Comput. 82, 105542 (2019) 11. Li, Y., Kou, Y., Li, Z.: An improved nondominated sorting genetic algorithm iii method for solving multiobjective weapon-target assignment part i: the value of fighter combat. Int. J. Aerosp. Eng. 2018, 1–23 (2018) 12. Lu, Y., Chen, D.Z.: A new exact algorithm for the weapon-target assignment problem. Omega (Oxford) 98, 102138 (2021) 13. Ni, M., Yu, Z., Ma, F., Wu, X.: A Lagrange relaxation method for solving weapon-target assignment problem. Math. Probl. Eng. 2011, 1–10 (2011) 14. Redaelli, M.A., Lindner, S., Erhardt, S., Giannetti, R.: CircuiTikZ (2021) 15. Sahin, ¸ M.A., Leblebicio˘glu, K.: Approximating the optimal mapping for weapon target assignment by fuzzy reasoning. Inf. Sci. 255, 30–44 (2014) 16. Smith, G.: Mediterranean sea 1942 (2018). https://www.naval-history.net 17. Summers, D.S., Robbins, M.J., Lunday, B.J.: An approximate dynamic programming approach for comparing firing policies in a networked air defense environment. Comput. Oper. Res. 117, 104890 (2020) 18. Zhao, P., Wang, J., Kong, L.: Decentralized algorithms for weapon-target assignment in swarming combat system. Math. Probl. Eng. 2019, 1–15 (2019) 19. Zhao, Y., Chen, Y., Zhen, Z., Jiang, J.: Multi-weapon multi-target assignment based on hybrid genetic algorithm in uncertain environment. Int. J. Adv. Robot. Syst. 17(2), 172988142090592 (2020)

Chapter 28

Statistics and Management COVID-19 in Kosovo-Case Study Hospital of Ferizaj Milazim Shabani, Bekim Mustafa, and Naim Baftiu

Abstract Infectious diseases are disorders caused by microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi. According to the World Health Organization, infectious diseases cause about 26% of the world’s deaths and are the leading cause of death in people younger than 50 years old. Infectious diseases are classified into new infectious diseases, which include SARS-1, SARS-2, bird flu, etc., and recurrent diseases, which include pre-existing infections with known incidence and geographical spread. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses widely found in animals and humans, responsible for a variety of diseases, ranging from common cold to much more severe diseases which often lead to pneumonia. The group of new diseases also includes Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), which initially causes a respiratory infection with the continuation of other complications. This virus is a new type of betacoronavirus, which first appeared in China and later spread very fast all over the world leading to a global pandemic. Disease monitoring should primarily include erythrocyte sedimentation rate, leukocyte count, leukocyte formula, C-reactive protein (CRP), determination of Troponin I (hsTnI) and T (cTnT), pro-B Type N-terminal natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), fibrinogen and D-dimer levels.

28.1 Introduction The COVID-19 outbreak, which began in December 2019 in China, represents a significant challenge for the world. The Chinese authorities informed the WHO in December 2019 of an outbreak of pneumonia caused by a pathogen, previously M. Shabani College “Biznesi”, Prishtina, Kosovo e-mail: [email protected] B. Mustafa Clinic of Pulmology, University Clinical Center of Kosovo, Prishtina, Kosovo N. Baftiu (B) Faculty Computer Science, University “Ukshin Hoti”, Prizren, Kosovo e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_28

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unknown, isolated in the city of Wuhan, with a population over 11 million people [1]. The disease caused by the virus labeled as COVID-19, and the WHO announced its outbreak as Public Health Emergency of International Importance (PHEIC) on 30 of January 2020 [2]. Infectious diseases are disorders caused by microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi. All infectious diseases are characterized by the possibility of transmission to humans I one or more ways [3]. The main ways of getting the infection are through air while sneezing, coughing, spitting or talking. According to the World Health Organization, infectious diseases cause about 26% of deaths worldwide and are leading cause of death in people under 50 years of age [4]. Acute respiratory infections are diseases that are transmitted from one person to another, and their incidence increases under conditions of overcrowding within a space. These infections are responsible for a considerable percentage of morbidity and mortality and increase the risk of recurrence. During the spread of these infectious diseases, the nose, mouth, sinuses, trachea, bronchi and lungs are initially affected, and a large percentage of deaths after these infections are caused by pneumonia. Infectious diseases are classified into new infectious diseases including SARS-1 and 2, Avian influenza, etc., and recurrent diseases which include previously existing infections, of which is known the incidence and geographical spread [5]. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses widely found in animal and humans, responsible for a variety of ailments ranging from the common cold to much more serious diseases that are common in pneumonia, such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). In the group of new diseases also includes coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), which initially causes respiratory infections with the continuation of other complications. This virus is a new type of beta-coronavirus, which first appeared in China and later spread rapidly around the world leading to a global pandemic. Coronaviruses (CoV) belong to a family of viruses that account for 10–30% of all upper respiratory tract infections [6]. In 2002, Acute Respiratory Severe Syndrome (SARS)-CoV-1 infected at least 8000 individuals, with ~ 30% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation and ~ 10% of cases that ended up with fatality [7]. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is more like the SARS-CoV-1 virus from 2002 and is suspected to have originally been transmitted by bats as a natural reservoir. COVID-19 is a highly contagious infection, accompanied by the most significant form of severe interstitial pneumonia and its associated complications, including respiratory failure, thrombosis, other organ failure and death [8]. Some reports also describe the common occurrence of myocardial involvement in patients affected by COVID-19 leading to a cardiac arrest and stroke.

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Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) initially attacks the respiratory system, from patient experience, it is almost certainly very rapidly destructive to the cardiovascular system. In patients infected with COVID-19, there are symptoms such as very high temperatures, fever, persistent cough and joint and bone pain, in some cases diarrhea, loss of appetite and taste, etc. Monitoring the disease should be a priority and should include erythrocyte sedimentation rate, leukocyte count, leukocyte formula, C-reactive protein (CRP), determination of troponin I (hsTnI) and T (cTnT) level [9]. Peptidic natriuretic pro-B of N-terminal type (NT-proBNP), fibrinogen and D-dimer level. Some studies from Asia showed that in some groups of cases of infection, the spread of the virus occurred 1–3 days before the onset of symptoms in patients. Furthermore, it is estimated that before travel restrictions in China, 86% of infections were undocumented, that is, undiagnosed and unreported [10]. A study comparing the stability of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 found that these virions are stable in aerosols for hours (half-life ~ 1 h) and on plastic and metal surfaces for up to 72 h (half-life ~ 7 h) [11]. Reports by some authors suggest that COVID-19 progresses through several phases in the course of the disease [12]. The first stage is viral infection during which symptoms such as moderate fever, fever and cough predominate. The second stage is characterized by the direct effects of viral cytotoxins, particularly those on the respiratory tract, leading to respiratory distress and potentially acute respiratory syndrome. The third and final stage, which are of a particular concern to cardiologists, are thought to be mediated by a hyper inflammatory response to the virus that causes ischemic effects, including in the entire cardiovascular system. Among patients diagnosed with COVID-19, initially ~ 13% had hypertension, ~ 5% had diabetes mellitus and ~ 4% had a history of cardiovascular disease. In the same study, among patients who died, 40% had hypertension, 20% had diabetes and 22% had pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Several studies conducted from 100 to 1000 hospitalized patients have reported similar results with fatalities, where the elderly, patients with hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease have dominated [13–16]. Acute heart damage, manifested by high blood pressure, cardiac troponin, electrocardiographic abnormalities, or myocardial dysfunction, appear to be predominant in subgroups of patients admitted to hospitals with COVID-19 [2, 17–18]. In several recent reports from New York hospitals, ~ 72% of confirmed COVID-19 patients who had elevated the ECG segment died in hospital. However, these data suggest that acute cardiac injury may be an important indicator of the recurrence of the disease in the terminal phase and the unfavorable prognosis for patients infected with COVID-19 with additional complications [20].

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28.2 Material and Methods Even before the outbreak of COVID-19, the health system of our country, but also of the countries around us, faced many managerial, financial and other difficulties in the realization of all health services and obligations. Infections with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, can also cause other diseases, ranging from mild to severe, and in some cases, complications can be fatal to the patient. People infected with the virus begin to have symptoms such as fever, chills, cough and difficulty breathing, but the spread can happen also from infected but asymptomatic people. From the first cases identified in China, December 2019, infections with COVID19 continued in Europe, respectively, in Italy20. The first two cases with coronavirus in Italy were confirmed on January 31, 2020. They were two Chinese tourists who in Rome tested positive for coronavirus. One week later, an Italian man returned to Italy from Wuhan, China, was hospitalized and confirmed as the third coronavirus patient in Italy, respectively, the first citizen from Europe. Infections quickly continued in Spain, France, Portugal and other European countries.

28.3 Results and Discussion In Kosovo, the first cases identified with COVID-19 were registered on March 13, 2020. The first person was 20 years old with Italian citizenship, and the second was over 77 years old with Kosovo citizenship. After their isolation, the government took all necessary measures for persons with whom they have been in contact. Following the new cases, the Ministry of Health on March 15, 2020 recommended to the Government of Kosovo to declare a public state of health emergency in the country. But after filling all the possible capacities at the University Clinical Center of Kosovo in Prishtina, the sick patients started to be transferred to the other regional hospitals. With the decision of the University Clinical Service of Kosovo to start treatment in regional hospitals of patients with COVID-19, the first hospitalizations in the Regional General Hospital in Ferizaj started on 28.06.2020 in the Pediatric ward. After filling the capacities in this ward on 06.08.2020, the management of the hospital decided that the space for treatment of COVID-19 patients to be expanded in the internal disease ward and in the emergency ward. In the emergency ward of the hospital were placed cases that were admitted with COVID-19, where in the same premises was performed the triage, treatment, the daily therapy was administered, also the laboratory analysis, ECG and X-ray examinations were done in the same Emergency ward. Despite the fact that the entire first floor of the hospital was intended for patients with COVID-19, due to the small space of the Hospital, it was not possible to accept the large influx of patients due to lack of beds; so in such situation, the hospital

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management in coordination and consent with the management of University Clinical Center of Kosovo and directorate of Health Service of University Clinical Center on 19.07.2020 is obliged transfer gynecological services to Main Medical Center nr 1 in Ferizaj; while urgent surgical, gynecological and orthopedic cases were to be referred to all relevant clinics in the University Clinical Center of Kosovo. From Table 28.1, it can be seen that the number of patients who have sought medical help has been relatively large and compared to June has been much higher (313). Due to various reasons, for example, delay in sampling, etc., the number of positive results with COVID-19 with PCR test was small, and the health condition of hospitalized was very severe resulting in 16 deaths and 17 transfers in the Clinical University Center because they were so severe cases for treatment (Fig. 28.1). From Table 28.1, it can be seen that the number of patients who were hospitalized during July was relatively large and compared to June was much higher (109). Due to various reasons, e.g., delay in sampling, etc., the number of positive results with Table 28.1 General data for admitted, healed and dead patients who were confirmed or suspected with COVID-19 infection during the month of July Ward

Emergency

Beds

8

Admissions

0

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Daily treatments

With 02

313

CPAP

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Positive

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36

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193

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27

Surgery and orthopedic

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72

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128

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313

203

7

619

16

17

81

Fig. 28.1 COVID-19—delta variant—July 2021

COVID Juli 2020 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0

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COVID-19 with PCR test was small, but the health condition of hospitalized was quite serious that resulted in 15 deaths during this month. From Table 28.2, it can be seen that the number of patients with COVID-19 infection is increasing and is significantly higher (378), despite the non-positive confirmation for all patients with PCR test. The number of transfers to University Clinical Center in Prishtina was lower because there were no freer beds. It is noticeable that the number of deaths in this month is higher (28) that in July 2020 (Fig. 28.2). From Table 28.3, there is a noticeable decrease in patients treated and admitted to the hospital, suspected of infection with COVID-19, regardless of the results obtained by the National Institute of Public Health in Prishtina and the raise of civic awareness (Fig. 28.3). Table 28.2 General data for admitted, healed and dead patients who were confirmed or suspected with COVID-19 infection during the month of August Ward

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With O2

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5

36

Surgery and orthopedic

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41

43

0

41

0

474

6

1

30

Total

56

151

136

378

209

24

1335

28

15

112

Fig. 28.2 COVID-19—delta variant—August 2021

COVID August 2020 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200

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Table 28.3 General data for admitted, healed and dead patients who were confirmed or suspected with COVID-19 infection during the month of September Ward

Emergency

Beds

Admissions

Releases

Daily treatments

With O2

CPAP

Healing days

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38

53

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36

5

603

4

6

12

9

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Fig. 28.3 COVID-19—delta variant—September 2021

0

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28.4 Conclusions The high-speed spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, accompanied by many unknowns and an unprecedented burden on the health system, characterized by other consequences beyond the health level, has highlighted the need to develop a roadmap and protocol, clinical management and treatment of COVID-19. Innovations in the management and treatment of patients with COVID-19, based on clinical research, present the need to update the clinical guideline for the management and treatment of COVID-19. Antimicrobial resistance is a global public health challenge with significant socioeconomic impact that is accompanied by high morbidity, mortality and cost. COVID19 for just one year was the catalyst for the emergence and rapid spread of antimicrobial resistance due to the enormous use of antibiotics at all levels of health care, even in asymptomatic and mild cases of the disease. COVID-19 is a viral infection and is neither treated nor prevented with antibiotics.

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Based on the results obtained in the real state of management of COVID-19 in the hospital of Ferizaj, it is seen that in August 2020, we have 28 patients dead, while in other months, we have from 16 to 4 dead patients.

References 1. Agrewall, S., Giannitsis, E., Jernberg, T., et al.: Troponin elevation in coronary vs. non-coronary disease. Eur. Heart J. 32(4):404–411 (2011) 2. Atri, D., Siddiqi, H.K., Lang, J., et al.: COVID-19 for the cardiologist: a current review of the virology, clinical epidemiology, cardiac and other clinical manifestations and potential therapeutic strategies. JACC Basicto Transl. Sci. 443 (2020) 3. Bangalore, S., Sharma, A., Slotëiner, A., et al.: ST segment elevation inpatients with Covid-19 a case series (2020) 4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: In the absence of SARS-CoV transmission worldwide: guidance for surveillance, clinical and laboratory evaluation and reporting 2005. N. Engl. J. Med., NEJMc2009020. Accessed 02 April 2020. 5. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC): Case definition and European surveillance for human infection with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) (2020) 6. Guan, W., Ni, Z., Hu, Y., Liang, W., Ou, C., He, J., et al.: Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N. Engl. J. Med. (2020) 7. Guo, T., Fan, Y., Chen, M., et al.: Cardiovascular implications off a fatal outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Cardiol. (2020) 8. Li, R., Pei, S., Chen, B., et al.: Substantial undocumented infection facilitates therapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARSCoV2). Science 368(6490), 489–493 (2020) 9. Morens, D.M., Folkers, G.K., Fauci, A.S.: The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Nature 430, 242–249 (2004) 10. Paules, C.I., Marston, H.D., Fauci, A.S.: Coronavirus infections—more than just the common cold. JAMA 323(8), 707–708 (2020) 11. Qeveria shpall gjendje emergjente të shëndetit publik (The government declares a public health emergency). Telegrafi (2020) 12. Reynolds, M.: What is Coronavirus and How Close is it to Becoming a Pandemic?. Wired UK (2020). ISSN 1357-0978. Archived from the Original on 5 Mar 2020. Retrieved 5 Mar 2020 13. Siddiqi, H.K., Mehra, M.R.: COVID-19 illness in native and immunosuppressed states: a clinical-therapeutic staging proposal. J. Heart Lung Transplant. (n.d.) 14. Van Doremalen, N., Bushmaker, T., Morris, D.H., et al.: Aerosol and surface stability of SARSCoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1. N. Engl. J. Med. 382(16), 1564–1567 (2020) 15. Shi, S., Qin, M., Shen, B., et al.: Association of cardiac injury with mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan. JAMA Cardiol. China (2020) 16. Wang, D., Hu, B., Hu, C., et al.: Clinical characteristics of 138 hospitalized patients with 2019 novelcoronavirus–infected pneumonia in Wuhan. China JAMA 323(11), 1061–1069 (2020) 17. WHO: COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan/Operational Planning Guidelines to Support Country Prepare Descend Response (2020) 18. World Health Organization (WHO): Global surveillance for human infection with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), 21 Jan 2020 19. European Commission (EC): COVID-19. Cited Mar 2020 20. Wu, C., Chen, X., Cai, Y., Xia, J., Zhou, X., Xu, S., et al.: Risk factors associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome and death in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia in Wuhan. China JAMA Int. Med. (2020) 21. Zhou, F., Yu, T., Du, R., et al.: Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study. Lancet 395(10229), 1054–1062 (2020)

Chapter 29

Maritime Strategy and Cooperative Security Oscar Barrionuevo , Teresa Guarda , and José Avelino Victor

Abstract The objective of this research is to analyze the necessary conditions of cooperative security that contribute to the purposes of the states’ maritime strategy. The maritime strategy is part of the national strategy of a state, and its purpose is to create, maintain, and use maritime power to promote and protect maritime interests, which derive from the strategic political level, based on the attributes of the sea that each state analyzes and considers that they are the ones that allow it to contribute from the maritime perspective to its national objectives. The permanent dialectic between cooperation and conflict at sea, added to other actors such as transnational crime, piracy, and overexploitation of resources, makes the oceans spaces where anarchy reigns. This limits the efforts of states to protect and develop their interests at sea, where maritime traffic, the center of gravity of international trade, is particularly affected. States are then called upon to collaborate with their political, economic, informational and military efforts, if required, for good order in the oceans, under a full and comprehensive cooperative security scheme, based on the concept proposed by Richard Cohen of the “four rings of cooperative security”; which is the optimal condition where the true contribution of the efforts of the states contributing to their maritime strategy is appreciated, with prior conditions such as common maritime interests, and the willingness to protect the great common good called the ocean and the activities that take place in it.

O. Barrionuevo Armada del Ecuador, Guayaquil, Ecuador e-mail: [email protected] T. Guarda (B) Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena, La Libertad, Ecuador CIST—Centro de Investigación en Sistemas y Telecomunicaciones, Universidad Estatal Península de Santa Elena, La Libertad, Ecuador Algoritmi Centre, Minho University, Guimarães, Portugal J. A. Victor Polytechnic Institute of Maia, Maia, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_29

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29.1 Introduction The sea with its attributes has an undeniable value for the development of states, a means for global trade, a source of resources, and space for political, economic, and cultural projection. As such, it is not exempt from the anarchic nature of the international system, under the constant dilemma between competition and cooperation. Added to this problem are transnational illegal activities and other global problems that use the maritime domain, which seriously affects the maritime interests of states, in particular maritime traffic, causing security problems that oppose the development efforts of the nations. This research work seeks to answer the question: Under what conditions does cooperative security contribute to the maritime strategy of States? To answer the research question, the objective raised from the academic perspective is to analyze the conditions in which cooperative security contributes to the ends of the states’ maritime strategy. The research is carried out through an interpretative, documentary qualitative design. Its structure initially addresses theories on maritime strategy and sea power. Including aspects related to maritime interests and common goods. Then, the threats that generate challenges to states at sea are addressed and analyzed. Finally, the conditions and cases in which cooperative security has a full contribution to the maritime strategy of the states are analyzed. Concluding that cooperative maritime security is achieved in a context where states have common maritime interests and threats and risks that violate their full development.

29.2 Maritime Strategy and Sea Power The maritime strategy is part of the national strategy of a state, and it is developed in times of peace and conflict [1]. Its purpose is to create, maintain, and use the maritime power of the state to promote and protect its maritime interests. It is closely related to military strategy and economic policy [1, 2]. Maritime power, therefore, is the ability to create, develop, exploit, and defend maritime interests in times of peace and conflict. Consequently, it is the faculty that a state has to take advantage of the sea for its own benefit and that of its population [3]. This concept is reinforced in light of historical analyzes that allow us to affirm that the superiority of maritime power throughout history has been an enabler of the success of strategy and politics, as it was in history and will be in future [4, 5]. Maritime power develops strategic effects for what is done in or from the sea. It is not an absolute quality, but rather a relative one, that states, alliances, or coalitions have to a greater or lesser degree compared to others [5], with the use of the sea being a prerequisite for deploying the associated capacity for influence through the sea power [6].

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There are some countries that have a strong presence and influence on the ocean, even though they may not have as many resources as other countries. These countries have a strategic vision and political leadership that allows them to maintain a presence in the maritime areas where they have sovereign rights and jurisdiction, as well as in areas that are important to their country. On the other hand, there are other countries with a more limited focus on the ocean and a local influence, even though they may have more resources. In other words, the latter have greater maritime power and have a better capacity to use the sea in their action of projection or political, economic, military, and cultural influence, in the regional or global context; it should be clarified that the final strategic effects must be released from the sea to the land, where people live and the destinies of nations are decided, which in turn reinforces the enabling character that maritime power has for strategy [5]. The factors that condition the achievement of the objectives of the maritime interests of a state from the perspective of the maritime strategy are as follows: the national character (maritime awareness); the geomaritime complex; the geographical situation; the merchant marine (commercial, fishing, sports); naval power; infrastructure for the exploitation of resources in the sea; and the economic potential of a state [6, 7]. Others may be included in these, depending on the political vision of each country. The real political, social, economic, and strategic dimension of maritime interests and their effects are achieved when they are complemented by the naval power of a state, and a harmonious balance of this group is achieved, this being the most important task in terms of maritime policy and responsibility at the political-strategic level, in order to activate the virtuous maritime cycle [2].

29.3 From Maritime Interests to Common Goods Mahan was a realist. Like most maritime strategists, he believed that international politics was basically a fight over who gets what, when, and how. In this way, one of the main contemporary strategists, Till [6], cited in Rivera Páez et al. [8], begins the first chapter of his book on maritime power. This assertion highlights the continuing relationship of cooperation and competition at sea. In contrast, the Argentine Admiral Segundo Storni, from a more liberal approach, proposes cooperation between nations as one of the alternatives for the care of the sea, its resources, its condition as a means by which maritime trade is materialized through the maritime communications lines, and other attributes [9]. The concept of maritime interests arises alongside the debate on whether or not states can exercise sovereignty over maritime spaces, related to the ongoing controversy between the sets of ideas that generate the “Mare Liberum and Mare Calusum”. There are several factors that influence a country’s position or influence in the ocean, including geographic, economic, moral, and political factors. Additionally, a country’s success in using the sea for its own benefit also plays a role in its position.

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These two groups of elements work together to determine a country’s position or influence in the ocean [8]. Without a doubt, maritime interests in simpler terms are the interests of the state in the sea, and they derive from the clear definition of national interests, maritime policy, and strategy and are closely related to the attributes that maritime domain has in the context geopolitical and geoeconomic. The historical analysis allows us to attribute the following attributes to the sea: as a source of resources; space where food exists; oil and gas reserve. As a means of transport and commercial exchange, given that maritime transport makes globalization and market expansion possible, this is undoubtedly a relevant attribute, since the affectation in any way to maritime communication lines can have serious effects on the global economy. The sea as a means of information and dissemination of ideas, since the commercial exchange brings with it the dialectic and the debate of ideas, in addition to the exchange of culture, and currently, a large amount of data in information product of the digital transformation depends on submarine fiber optic cables. And finally, as a means of domination, bearing in mind that it is an ideal means for the projection of naval power from the sea to the land [6]. Alfred Thayer Mahan interpreted the sea as a “great commons”, a medium through which trade and military forces could flow freely [7]. Sir Julian Corbett also highlighted the ocean as a means of communication of interest to all, vital to the nation [10]. For his part, Posen [11] expanded the concept of the commons in which the ocean was, incorporating airspace, outer space, and cyberspace. It is clear then that there are common interests for the states, and the sea is one of the most relevant and vital, because each state establishes which attributes of this are the ones that are most in line with its national strategy and help to achieve the strategic political objectives, and the essential purposes of the state, since in this context, nothing can be left to chance [12]. Being the sea vital for the states, as a source of resources, a means for global trade, a space that houses the submarine communication cables that make possible the flow of information on which global communication depends, regulator of the global climate, among others. It is also the scene of international crimes, the theater of major international conflicts or a simple geopolitical protection barrier [13]. Therefore, there are common threats that affect the activities and natural conditions of the ocean that represent a maritime challenge for the states, which invite the question of how these common goods are going to be controlled and also allow projecting the possible tragedy of these common goods to despite the current existence of regulatory regimes [14].

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29.4 Threats to Maritime Security, Cooperation, and Conflict Maritime problems are a multidimensional issue, and they are complex challenges that require the participation of the entire state in even multilateral efforts. The security of ocean spaces represents a recurring issue on the international agenda, even more so when technological development has revealed the great economic value of the ocean for development. The overexploitation of resources, the increase in traditional threats, such as illicit trafficking in supplies, weapons and explosives, terrorism, piracy, smuggling, and illicit migration, affects the maritime security of the oceans, as do negative effects of natural disasters, which impact security and order in the oceans [15]. Jhon Beddington has warned in several of his publications and academic forums what he has called the “perfect storm”, arguing that the world will need to produce 50% more food and energy, along with 30% more water [16]. As he tries to mitigate and adapt to the consequences of climate change, he will contain the demographic crisis, the growth of cities, poverty, and pandemics. Linking Beddington’s arguments with the framework of cooperation and permanent conflict related to the attributes of the sea that Geoffrey Till evidences [5, 6], it is clear that this constitutes a medium where anarchy is evident despite the existence of regulatory regimes. The constant struggle of the states for their survival, to avoid their decline or to achieve the desired hegemony, requires energy resources, food for their population, raw materials, transporting finished products, avoiding the contamination of aquatic spaces and overexploitation, exploiting resources from the seabed development of infrastructure, all activities intimately related to the sea, many times in opposition to interests and in others as common interests between the states. Transnational criminal organizations often try to set up operations in areas where living conditions are poor, as they can easily recruit people who may be desperate, uneducated, or lacking strong moral values to work for them. In these environments, the authorities, law enforcement, and justice systems may also be corrupt, allowing illegal activities to thrive. This makes it difficult for states to maintain good order at sea, as transnational crime often relies on the ocean to carry out their actions and target those who work at sea. Overall, maintaining good order at sea is a real challenge for states due to the presence of transnational crime and the associated factors Three factors cause difficulties for governments in their efforts to maintain security in maritime spaces. The first, imposed by international law; the second, imposed by institutional roles; and the third, limited by resources. The governance of maritime spaces brings together all these considerations, not always without problems, which adds complexity to a situation that is normally difficult [17]. The effects of threats to maritime security could be devastating for the global economy, especially if they affect maritime traffic. It would be enough to take some of the many examples to visualize the results. For example, the projections made by the International Energy Agency regarding the transportation requirements of

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liquefied natural gas, fuels, and crude oil through the world’s largest chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, by 2030 are projected at 15 mboe/d and 20 mboe/d, respectively, which corresponds to approximately 30% of the daily global demand crossing Hormuz and 25% through the Strait of Malacca [18]. Other interesting data regarding the importance of chokepoints and the risks to maritime traffic are the following: more than 190,000 ships carrying a billion tons of cargo cross the Suez Canal, the Strait of Malacca causes potential risks for more than 130,000. Since more than 30 incidents related to piracy were reported in 2019 alone, 252 million tons of cargo cross the Panama Canal, which represents 2.6 billion dollars of tax revenue for Panama. The risks with the highest probability of occurrence and impact are piracy in the Straits of Malacca, Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb, storms in the Turkish Straits (of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles) and the Suez Canal, and damages due to flooding in the Panama Canal [19]. The effects on global trade are therefore large losses due to delay, longer transport times by using more extensive routes with an impact on freight costs, among others. Given these scenarios, states have established as part of their foreign policy the necessary cooperation in matters of maritime security, which has been embodied in their maritime policies and strategies, and included in their defense and security policy.

29.5 Cooperative Security and Cooperative Maritime Security Considering that it is imperative that the necessary security conditions exist for the development of the maritime interests of the states. And since the threats and risks associated with the maritime domain know no borders and rather have the characteristic of being transnational, this involves a multilateral effort that in recent years has taken the name of cooperative maritime security, but before addressing what involves the concept of cooperative maritime security, it is necessary to establish an updated approach to cooperative security, because it is the origin of the former. The concept of cooperative security gained strength with the end of the Cold War; however, it was Immanuel Kant who introduced this idea at the end of the eighteenth century in his second article “Perpetual Peace”, and it has generally been used to describe a peaceful and peaceful and idealist approach of international relations [20]. It has become fashionable as state policy makers try to find an approach that suits an unpredictable and complex future. It basically reflected a liberal vision of the future of global security. However, events such as those that occurred at the end of the twentieth century in the Balkans made it clear that it did not fit the anarchic reality of the international system. Based on this background, Richard Cohen then proposes a more pragmatic approach to the concept, which has been called “Cohen’s four rings of cooperative security” [21]. Cooperative security is thus conceived as a system at the strategic political level that is formed around a core of democratic states united in a network of alliances

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and formal or informal institutions characterized by shared values, and economic, political, practical defense, and transparent. In a cooperative security system, the national security objectives of individual states are linked by four reinforcing security rings. The first ring is individual security, which requires the promotion and protection of human rights within and beyond its own limits. In the second ring, collective security is located, which involves maintaining peace and stability within the common space. The third ring is collective defense, which focuses on mutual protection against external aggression. In the fourth ring, the promotion of stability seeks to actively promote it in geographic areas where the conflict could threaten shared security, using political, economic, informational, and if necessary, military means. The fundamentals of a cooperative security system are proactivity, preservation, and development of the common interests of the states [21]. Under the light of this concept, the only organization that fits the characteristics defined above is North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which bases maritime security operations (MSO) based on the protection of the common maritime interests of its members, in particular traffic maritime, center of gravity of global trade, with a special focus on the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Andén, where since 2001, they have maintained a permanent and persistent MSO effort with the aim of facing common threats with a multilateral and multidimensional approach, with the main effort that has as its objective the protection of maritime traffic, seeking as an effect free and safe maritime routes. The term multidimensional is used because it is not just a military effort; given that this is accompanied by cooperation programs in other areas, such as economic, humanitarian, technological, with special attention to the states from which illegal or criminal groups operate, making possible the integrated action proposed in Cohen’s model, even incorporating to this process to states outside the alliance. Alliances such as the Quad in the Indo-Pacific arose from the humanitarian aid efforts toward Indonesia after suffering the onslaught of a Tsunami in 2004. At present, it is gaining more strength based on the strategic orientations that have been developed in each of its member states, which are still discussing the formal and functional aspects of the alliance, where obviously the strongest power, the United States of America, is the one more promotes and seeks to maintain the dynamics based on its Twenty-First Century Maritime Cooperation Strategy, with objectives aimed at freedom of navigation and regional cooperative maritime security. However, this is a region with states with different interests, internal conflicts, and interstate problems still pending, also in maritime spaces. Therefore, not being in the conceptual framework of cooperative security exposed by Cohen, but, nevertheless, the activity of its naval forces in this scenario is generating effects and influence. In the South American case, the existence of a wide variety of regional integration instruments and mechanisms, conflicting interests, different political visions of national development, lack of leadership and strategic will, which ultimately affect the core of the four rings of security cooperative, have resulted in integration and cooperation proposals such as the creation of Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) with its South American Security Council failing. Only the bilateral

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cooperation efforts framed in the common interests of the States Parties remain active, and in the short term, there is no glimpse of an effective alternative for cooperation on security issues from the multilateral approach, even when regional negotiation initiatives in bloc such as the Pacific Alliance, they require security mechanisms that are associated with their regional development proposal to enhance it and make it sustainable, the conception of objective spaces for dialog being an imperative to advance in a true concept of South American cooperative security.

29.6 Conclusions The permanent dialectic between cooperation and conflict at sea, with multidimensional threats and risks, makes the oceans complex spaces where there is anarchy, which limits the efforts of states to protect and develop their interests at sea, with a particular impact on the maritime traffic, the center of gravity of international trade, requiring cooperative efforts to achieve an adequate degree of maritime safety. Cooperative security implemented from its broadest perspective, integrating individual security, collective security, collective defense, and promotion of regional stability allows states to converge political, economic, informational, and military efforts that contribute to the development and protection of common maritime interests, to the sea as a “common good” and, through these, for the purposes of the maritime strategy.

References 1. Vego, M.: Maritime Strategy and Sea Denial: Theory and Practice. Routledge (2018) 2. Uribe, S.: Estrategía marítima, evolución y prospectiva. In: Escuela Superior de Guerra (2016) 3. Solis, E.: Poder Marítimo. In: XV Asamblea Internacional de la Federación Internacional de Ligas y Asociaciones Marítimas y Navales (1997) 4. Gray, C.: The Leverage of Sea Power: The Strategic Advantage of Navies in War. Free Press, New York (1992) 5. Till, G.: Colin gray and maritime strategy—an appreciation. Naval War Coll. Rev. 74(1), 1–9 (2021) 6. Till, G.: A Guide for the Twenty-First Century, 2009th edn. Routledge, London (2009) 7. Mahan, A.T.: The influence of sea power upon history: 1660–1783. Little, Brown and Company, Boston (1890) 8. Rivera Páez, S., Uribe Cáceres, S., Rodríguez Ruiz, H.M.: Intereses de Colombia en el Mar: Reflexiones para la construcción del país marítimo. In: Genealogía de los intereses marítimos, Escuela Superior de Guerra, pp. 21–41 (2018) 9. Storni, S.: Intereses Argentinos en el Mar, Armada Argentina (2009) 10. Albrecht, T., Tsetsos, K., Grunwald, P.: Concept of sea power. In: Handbook of Military Sciences, pp. 1–17 (2020) 11. Posen, B.: Command of the commons. The military foundation of US hegemony. Int. Secur. 28(1), 5–46 (2003) 12. Rath, S.: Maritime strategy of India and China: influence of Alfred Thayer Mahan. Naval War Coll. J. 71–79 (2005)

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13. Albarán Gómez, A.: Poder naval para el desarrollo marítimo de la nación: del realismo a la cooperación internacional. Justicia 35, 15–33 (2019) 14. Hamilton: Galletas, elefantes y mecánicos: Tres lentes para visualizar las amenazas marítimas y proponer respuestas posibles. Rev. Acad. Guerra Naval 14, 41–54 (2020) 15. Rodríguez Ruiz, H.M., Osorio Dussán, L.H., Uribe Cáceres, S., Chávez Perdomo, L.E.: Seguridad marítima retos y amenazas. ESDEGUE–DEARC, Bogota (2017) 16. Beddington, J., Warham, E.: Challenges of the 21st Century. Agric. Dev. 16, 3–7 (2013) 17. Shemella, P.: Global Responses to Maritime Violence: Cooperation and Collective Action. Stanford University Press, Stanford (2016) 18. International Energy Agency: Oil and Gas Trade Volumes Via Major Chokepoints in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2018–2040 (2020) 19. Ang, C.: Visual capitalist: mapping the world’s key maritime choke points. Geogr. Bull. 53(3), 17–19 (2021) 20. Kant, I., Smith, M.C.: Perpetual Peace. Wildside Press (1903) 21. Cohen, R., Chandler, N., Efron, S., Frederick, B., Han, E., Klein, K., Morgan, F., Rhoades, A., Shatz, H., Shokh, Y.: The Future of Warfare in 2030: Project Overview and Conclusions. RAND Corporation (2020)

Chapter 30

The Future of Field Artillery Projectiles: New Technologies, Strengths and Challenges H. Gouveia

and J. Borges

Abstract After numerous years in oblivion, field artillery is getting a new breath. Several countries have decided to combat airpower conditions using fire support, therefore opening new possibilities for the use of ground-to-ground fires as the only way to suppress anti-aircraft defences. As a result of this need, many projects to develop field artillery projectiles arose to enhance precision and range. This article analyses several technological evolutions introduced in the field artillery projectiles and presents contributions and challenges of new trends for accomplishing the field artillery’s mission.

30.1 Introduction The twenty-first century has brought a new paradigm to military operations. The operational environment has changed significantly, and military operations are now essentially developed within urban environments, close to civilians, housing, critical infrastructures, such as hospitals and schools. The presence of non-combatant civilians and the need to preserve critical infrastructure became part of the new reality. This change in the operational environment imposed further constraints on military operations, namely the need to limit collateral damage to both population and infrastructure. Consequently, field artillery (FA) engagement was forced to increase accuracy beyond hitting area targets to sustain armies in the field by providing fire support. At the end of the First World War (WWI), FA was considered the queen of battles. With the advent of aviation, it lost its preponderance, and some countries even overlooked new developments in FA [1]. H. Gouveia (B) · J. Borges Centro de Investigação, Desenvolvimento e Inovação da Academia Militar, Academia Militar, Instituto Universitário Militar, Rua Gomes Freire, 1169-203 Lisboa, Portugal e-mail: [email protected] J. Borges e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6_30

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Contrary to this trend, Russia never stopped investing in its FA, also known as the Czar and pursued its development. Their developments were noteworthy in the conflict with Ukraine, where Russia proved its capacity to reach objectives at long distances using its FA [2]. The FA gained renewed attention in recent years with new technological development, mainly in the US, Israel [3] and France. The trigger for such growth is that adversary nations started investing heavily in combat airpower. In this context, FA earned relevance as the element of attack against enemy air defences and has caused the army to sweep from being a “consumer” of long-range fire from other branches into the leading “supplier” of this type of fire [4]. This article provides a literature review on the developments associated with FA projectiles. It aims to analyse the technological evolutions introduced in FA projectiles and understand the contributions and challenges of the new trends for the FA mission. A theoretical, bibliographical and documentary research were conducted, mainly based on articles published in online military journals and on information provided by weapon manufacturers. The article consists of five sections. The first two sections discuss the main trends in the evolution of FA projectiles; the following two sections identify the technologies associated with the increase in FA projectiles’ accuracy and range.

30.2 Hypervelocity Hypervelocity1 projectiles have been designed for the US Navy’s Electromagnetic Railgun2 (EMRG) and began development in 2005 [6]. EMRG uses electromagnetic induction to fire a kinetic energy projectile, without explosives, from up to 160 km away at speeds over 8000 km per h, at least three times faster than existing weapons [7]. During the development of the EMRG, the US Navy engineers realised that the hypervelocity projectiles (Fig. 30.1) could also be used in conventional fires using gunpowder with 5-inch cannons or 155 mm howitzers.3 The projectile reaches hypervelocity velocities (Mach 5+) when fired using the EMRG, so the hypervelocity projectile (HVP) naming. The projectile reaches high speeds in conventional gunpowder fires, although below the velocities when fired from EMRG. The US Navy admits that the shells fired with gunpowder may be different from the ones fired by EMRG and hence has started to designate the shells fired by howitzers as Gun-Launched Guided Projectile (GLGP) [5]. Currently, the HVP is also under development in the Army and the Air Force, where it is being tested on the M109 Paladin FA shell with conventional gunpowder 1

Hypervelocity is defined as the range of speeds in excess of Mach 5. Weapon that fires projectiles using electricity instead of chemical propellants (gunpowder charges). Magnetic fields created by high electric currents accelerate a sliding metallic conductor between two rails to launch projectiles at speeds from 7200 up to 9000 km/h [5] 3 BAE’s projectile measures 609.6 mm long and weighs 12.7 kg. The complete launch package is 660.4 mm long and weighs 18.14 kg [8]. 2

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Fig. 30.1 HVP shell for the 155 mm howitzer [8]

[7], being able to reach 80 km of distance and a firing rate of 6 shots per minute [9]. The HVP can be used against various targets, such as buildings, force concentrations, weapons systems, drones, aircraft, armoured vehicles and even enemy missiles artillery shells [9]. For the officers involved in the project, firing the HVP using a 155 mm shell provides several advantages, increased safety for the soldiers, increased range and faster target attack speed relative to conventional FA projectiles and expands the typology of targets a shell can hit [9]. Another advantage identified in the use of HVP is the reduction in the cost and logistical burden required to supply ammunition. The hypervelocity projectile cost presents a lower operational cost than conventional weapon systems designed for similar missions. The HVP uses GPS-enabled guidance systems and is currently configured only to engage fixed or static targets; technological developments allow to forecast their use against moving targets soon [9]. There are some sceptical voices when discussing hypersonic technologies. Carlton Meyer, a former Marine Corps officer, goes even further and claims that commercial interests influence the US Navy to adopt this technology. Meyer claims that billions of dollars in research cannot overcome the laws of physics. He sustains that EMRGs are impractical weapons because of the enormous electrical energy they require to launch the projectile. Furthermore, the projectile is small and has no increased range than other existing weapons [10]. Meyer [10] claims that this solution is not new as it was already used by German forces in WWI when they built the 211 mm “Paris Gun” with an initial speed of Mach 4.8 and allowing a range of 130 km. The Germans abandoned the project due to the severe damage caused on the tube: every 65 firings, the tube returned to the factory for refurbishment. Even if new technologies, materials and treatments exist nowadays for manufacturing howitzers, the question remains on the number of HVP fired using a shell tube in the presence of the severe mechanical stress of hypervelocity firing. From Meyer’s many criticisms of EMRG, we will focus only on those relevant to a FA’s perspective. Meyer claims that the concept of using HVP for long-range indirect fire is so absurd that it is not even worth discussing. Meyer claims that a ten-kilogramme projectile fired at hypervelocity quickly loses velocity due to air resistance and would not reach more than 16 km away since the mass is not sufficient to go any further.

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Meyer also claims that the projectile would have high dispersion due to the ballistic disturbances. Therefore, GPS guidance would have to be used to increase the fire’s accuracy. Still, the extreme speed of the launch and the electromagnetic wave generated by the projectile could affect the GPS device. Finally, he stresses the low lethality of the projectile since it does not contain an explosive charge and will only be deadly in a direct hit of the target [10]. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) [5] assessed the US Navy projects. In a recent report from 2021, CRS raises questions regarding the future of projects EMRG and GLGP, emphasising the challenges they face until completion, especially regarding the US Navy’s commitment to complete the projects in due time. Tests conducted by the US Air Force in September 2020 seem to contradict Meyer’s allegations, at least as far as the prospect of using HVP as an anti-aircraft weapon and highlighting the importance of the GLGP. During these tests, an HVP fired from a Paladin shell successfully hit a BQM-167 target drone simulating a Russian cruise missile [11]. This significant advance might require a new tactical concept, with the FA fulfilling anti-aircraft missions or transforming the shells into weapons of great tactical versatility. Regarding the European perspective on hypervelocity, the EDA initiated a disruptive research project called Projectiles for Increased Long-range Effects Using Electromagnetic Railgun (PILUM), a project funded by the European Commission and managed by the EDA [12]. For the development of the project, a consortium composed of nine partners from five European countries, coordinated by the German– French Research Institute Saint-Louis, aims to demonstrate the usefulness of the concept of hypervelocity and its ability to fire projectiles with precision on targets located several hundred kilometres away [13].

30.3 Accuracy and Range The US identified qualitative and quantitative gaps in the long-range capability of its FA compared to its adversaries, Russia and China. They expended significant effort and resources to overcome these gaps in response to this challenge, and long-range precision munitions have become the US Army’s primary modernisation priority [2]. The US intended to increase the range of its shells from 30 to 70 km by 2023. The goals were to reach 40 km using a 39-calibre howitzer and the new generation of projectiles reaching 70 km with the Extended Range Cannon Artillery4 (ERCA) system with a 58-calibre howitzer [14]. The goals were achieved in December 2020. An Excalibur projectile struck a target located 70 km away, demonstrating the capability to be employed as a long-range precision projectile and overcoming a milestone set out for 2023 [15].

4

The ERCA project includes a new projectile, the rocket-assisted XM1113 with a range of 40 km and a longer tube for the 155 mm M109A7 Paladin howitzer [2].

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Although at a different pace, the EU Member States also prioritise increased FA ranges. General Varela from the Spanish Army admitted in a 2019 interview that the Spanish Army urgently needs long-range artillery capability [16]. Europe holds the current record for the most extended range (76 km) ever achieved by a conventional artillery projectile.5 The record was set by the Rheinmetall’s M9703 VLAP projectile, which shows that Europe is also committed to long-range precision fire [17]. However, lethality at great distances requires effective guidance and guidance systems. In Europe, the Course Correction Fuse (CCF) project started in 2012 to develop common technical knowledge on affordable and accessible solutions to reduce ballistic dispersion and increase the accuracy of Member States’ artillery fire. The project initially aimed at gathering information on solutions available in the European Union. The project then analysed those solutions and their integration in artillery systems and ammunition used by participating Member States [18]. The European Defence Agency (EDA) brought together several representatives from European industry and governments, 16 different nationalities, to discuss the topic and find partnerships interested in developing projects in this area. The main focus was on guidance systems for precision-guided munitions and missiles long distances to conduct military operations in urban areas. Another development focus was fuse electronics and hardware systems. It was recognised that miniaturisation and specialisation of the necessary hardware are crucial and should be robust enough to use any weapon. Developing an alternative to GNSS would enable the navigation of projectiles in environments where GNSS is unavailable, or the signal is attenuated, which was also considered a critical enabler.

30.4 Decision Support Technologies Guiding systems are the technology that allows artillery projectiles to be called intelligent projectiles and are responsible for giving them greater accuracy compared to conventional projectiles. They are increasingly sophisticated, allowing them to hit targets with a very small Circular Error Probable (CEP). The M982 Excalibur Excalibur6 has a CEP of less than 2 m, and although lower CEP is reported for other projectiles, this is the only combat-proven projectile with over 14,000 rounds fired [20].

5

Test conducted in 2019 at the Alkantpan test range with a 52 calibre G6 shell, which does not satisfy the NATO Joint Ballistics Memorandum of Understanding (JBMoU) [17]. 6 Known in the US military as M982 ERDPICM (Extended Range Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions) is a long-range, 155 mm calibre, GPS-guided projectile [19].

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Amongst the most expected guidance systems are satellite guidance. Amongst the munitions using this navigation system are the Excalibur, the GP155B,7 the Vulcano,8 the Katana,9 the Krasnopol-D,10 amongst others. This navigation system is not a recent development since it has been used on Excalibur since 2012 and was already used on missile systems before, but it has been improved to increase accuracy. Since interference in the signal received from satellites can affect the operational service of the munition, there has been a strong focus on developing the resilience of these systems to external affectation and on superimposing alternative means of guidance that allow their reliability in case of failure of the guidance systems. Amongst the most common alternative means are inertial11 guidance and laser guidance. Inertial guidance is not as accurate as satellite guidance; although it is also evolving significantly, it is a good alternative in satellite signal failure. Laser guidance requires a laser designator in the vicinity of the target, pointing at it, and is well suited for attacking moving targets or targets that have changed their position after the shot firing. The guidance technology is used with the Russian’s Krasnopol12 and the Chinese’s GP155 and GP155 munitions. The Excalibur, Vulcan, and Krasnopol-D munitions also use laser technologies for guidance and navigation. The emergence of smart projectiles allowed to increase the accuracy of the FA. As a result of the development of smart fuses, conventional munitions were also able to increase their accuracy significantly. In a conventional munition with a conventional fuse, the CEP increases with the range. Smart fuses, like smart ammunition, maintain the maximum EAP regardless of the distance to the target. Figure 30.2 aims to demonstrate this relationship by comparing the CEP of the M549A1 munition when fired with a conventional fuse with the CEP of the same munition fired with the M1156 Precision Guidance Kit (PGK) fuse. The market has begun to offer different alternatives in terms of smart fuses, but Orbital ATK’s M1156 PGK was the first to be developed and is currently one of the most accurate. The PGK incorporates a GPS antenna, is equipped with an antiinterference module and is bolted to the projectile similarly to the conventional fuse.

7

Chinese projectile that uses a satellite guidance system that can make use of the American GPS system or the Chinese Beidou [21]. 8 155 mm projectile, manufactured by Leonardo, with GPS guidance and optional terminal Laser guidance that has a maximum tracking error of 1 m, a range of 80 km and a lower price than the Excalibur [22]. From the union between BAE Systems and Leonardo came a modernised version of the Vulcan that allows the projectile to reach over 100 km when fired by ERCA [23]. 9 Intelligent projectile under development by Nexter Munitions with the aim of being compatible with all 155 mm JBMoU shells and less costly than the Excalibur [24]. 10 In addition to inertial and laser guidance, this enhanced version of the Krosnopol features GPS guidance and ranges of 43 km [25]. 11 Navigation device using motion sensors (accelerometers) and rotation sensors (gyroscopes) to continuously calculate the position, orientation and velocity (direction and speed of movement) of the projectile without requiring external references [26]. 12 The initial version of this projectile had only laser guidance and a range of 26 km. The KrasnopolM2 is now also inertially guided, and the Krasnopol-D is guided through GPS [25].

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Fig. 30.2 Comparison CEP (PGK versus conventional) [27]

Fig. 30.3 Projectile BONUS [33]

This fuse has four small fixed stabilisers to modify the ballistic trajectory and increase accuracy [28]. The initial PGKs allowed a maximum CEP of 50 m, but more recent versions now allow errors of less than 10 m [29]. The Israeli version of the PGK, which is named TopGun, has a slightly different structure but provides the same level of accuracy. The TopGun accurately calculates the projectile position in space and defines the best trajectory to reach the predefined coordinates before the shot is fired [30]. The BONUS Projectile13 (Fig. 30.3) [31], or its Chinese equivalent GP155G [32], uses a navigation system inserted in the projectile in the launch phase, which then separates and works independently. These projectiles carry two intelligent submunitions that employ advanced sensors, allowing each to acquire and destroy different targets independently, in the case of BONUS, within a radius of 32,000 m2 . This concept is not a recent one either, as the US has the XM898 SADARM (Sense and Destroy Armour) projectile for many years [34]. However, the BONUS has improved reliability, which led the

13

This projectile was developed and is produced at BAE Systems’ Karlskoga factory in Sweden in cooperation between BAE Systems and Nexter. The BONUSs is a projectile designed to hit armoured targets and can be fired from any 155 mm artillery system [31].

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US to add this projectile to its arsenal through procurement with the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) [33].

30.5 Technologies Associated with the Increase of the Range Accuracy depends on the projectile and fuse, whilst range depends on the weapon systems and propellant charges. Some projectiles have Base Bleed,14 such as the Excalibur or Rocket Assist, such as the M549A1 munition, which allows them to reach longer ranges; the main reasoning to achieve the ranges obtained in the tests carried out so far are propellant charges and the barrel dimensions. For example, the test in which Excalibur reached a range of 70 km was achieved using a longer barrel of 58 calibres and the new XM654 propellant supercharge, which creates a much higher initial speed and delivers higher kinetic energy [35]. The outdated Russian weapon systems justify that the Krasnopol-D does not achieve parity with the Excalibur [25]. Nevertheless, some companies invest in developing propellants to achieve ranges surpassing 100 km. Norwegian company NAMMO is working with Boeing to develop a new projectile called the 155 mm-ER ramjet. This projectile uses a solid fuel jet engine and harnesses the motion of the projectile to compress incoming air, which, expelled by the base, accelerates its flight [35]. Its main advantage is that it allows for long ranges using 52-calibre shells, which are widely used in many countries’ exercises. However, it still faces significant challenges regarding its accuracy and destructive power since the projectile will not allow the insertion of guidance systems in the warhead, requiring the development of different guidance systems, and it will have a reduced explosive load capacity, 3–3.5 kg, so it cannot be used against armoured targets [36]. Northrop Grumman has a similar contract with the US Army to develop the 155 mm XM115 projectile, aiming to exceed the 100 km range. This projectile, whose solid fuel jet engine has already been extensively and successfully tested, will have guidance systems and is intended to be capable of hitting mobile or fixed targets in all terrains and weather conditions [37].

30.6 Conclusions Tactically, precision projectiles give the FA a considerable advantage as they allow it to attack objectives with surprise and achieve more significant effects on the objective. Precision allows the FA to attack objectives with great effectiveness and efficiency, reducing the probability of collateral damage and the safety distance to friendly forces. It also allows for the reduction of the logistical process because the number of 14

A system used in some FA projectiles to increase about 20–35% in their range.

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munitions required to obtain the same effects, compared to conventional projectiles, is considerably smaller. The availability of different ammunition provides excellent flexibility of use, as smart projectiles, submunitions projectiles, or conventional projectiles with innovative fuses always ensure high accuracy when compared to the grenade’s lethal range, around 50 m for 155 mm calibres, and choose the best combination to obtain the desired effects. Even against moving targets, where conventional FA was very inefficient. The increased range allows the FA to attack objectives in its adversary’s depth and simultaneously stay out of range of the opposing FA, allowing it to operate with greater freedom and less risk. The combination of accuracy and increased range changes the FA paradigm. The FA is no longer a weapon predestined to hit area targets. Rather than that, it becomes a precision weapon, capable of intervening on targets that until then could only be hit by air fire, and ensures freedom of action to the airpower, highly conditioned by the significant presence of anti-aircraft defence means in the theatres of operations, through the suppression of the opponent’s antiaircraft defences. However, the FA will face some challenges in fully operationalising these new capabilities. Firstly, the target detection and damage assessment technologies need to have greater ranges to support the new FA requirements. In parallel with the development of the conditions to obtain greater ranges, new challenges in terms of materials have arisen. Tests with Excalibur, using the supercharge, have revealed problems with the mechanical resistance of some subsystems of the projectile, namely those related to the pressure generated by the charge, which may require changes in the manufacturing process of the projectile to increase its resistance [38]. One of the components that suffered from increased pressure is the rotating band. When fired in shells with more than 50 calibres, the standard copper rotating bands fail to resist the high velocities of launch and the temperatures generated. Several manufacturing technologies are being evaluated to achieve the locking belt performance required for long-range projectiles [38]. Regarding hypervelocity, it may bring new opportunities to FA, either through the execution of new missions by the FA or through the flexibility of using the shells. However, the development of hyperspeed technologies must still overcome some challenges before their value is proven for the FA.

References 1. Freedberg, Jr., S.J.: Army Rebuilds Artillery Arm for Large-Scale War [Online]. Breaking Defense, USA, New York (2020). Viewed 27 Dec 2021. Available from: https://breakingdefe nse.com/2020/04/army-rebuilds-artillery-arm-for-large-scale-war/ 2. Goure, D.: Army Artillery: Restoring the King of Battle to Its Throne [Online]. Defense News, USA (2019). Accessed 10 Jan 2022. Available from: https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/ commentary/2019/01/31/restoring-the-king-of-battle-army-artillery-to-its-throne/ 3. Frantzman, S.J.: Israel Inks Deal with Elbit for Advanced ‘Artillery of the Future’ [Online].

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Author Index

A Acosta-Portilla, Gabriela, 129 Aguinaga-Villegas, Maricielo, 141, 153 Aires, Paulo, 251 Almeida de, José Peres, 191 Alvarado, David Ricardo, 217 Alvear, Fernando, 165 Arbaiza, Francisco, 205 Ayala-Chauvin, Manuel, 97

B Baftiu, Naim, 87, 295, 329 Barrionuevo, Oscar, 121, 337 Baylón-Gonzales, Beatriz, 263, 273 Benito, Franck, 29 Bogas, Edgar, 251 Boiteux, Orlando, 239 Borges, J., 347 Buele, Jorge, 97

C Camino-Morejón, Valeria Maricruz, 97 Cano M., Jeimy J., 39 Carrillo, Henry Cruz, 165 Carrión, Samanta Cueva, 179 Castro-Suarez, John R., 1 Chavez, Danilo, 239 Claramunt, Christophe, 53 Colón-Mercado, Annette M., 1 Colpas, Fredy, 1 Cordas, Cristina M., 77 Curi-Condemayta, Nathaly, 273

D D‘Amato, Juan P., 17 Delgado-Guevara, Omar, 1 F Fernandes, José Eduardo, 29 Flores, Edison, 217 G Gallegos, Ana Poma, 179 Gonzales-Macavilca, Milton, 141, 153 Gouveia, H., 347 Guarda, Teresa, 121, 337 Guerrero, Juan José Morillas, 307 Guillermo-Zambrano, Raúl, 129 H Haro-Velasteguí, Andrés, 129 Haz, Lidice, 109 Hernández-Rivera, Samuel P., 1 I Iraola-Real, Ivan, 263 J Jara-Olmedo, Anibal, 239 Jeada, Valeria Yarad, 165 K Krippahl, Ludwig, 77

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023 Á. Rocha et al. (eds.), Developments and Advances in Defense and Security, Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies 328, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7689-6

359

360 L Laso, Pedro Merino, 53 Leidinger, Nathalie, 53 Leon, Diana Karina, 17 León-Toro, Jenny, 97 Luna, Andrea, 165 M Malheiro, Luís, 251 Maloku, Betim, 87, 295 Marín, Manuel Antonio Fernández-Villacañas, 307 Marques dos Santos, José Paulo, 191 Marques, Luís, 283 Marquino, Jaime Moises Minchala, 109 Molineros, Yolanda, 109 Morales, Germania Rodríguez, 179 Moura, José J. G., 77 Musliu, Adem, 87, 295 Mustafa, Bekim, 87, 329 N Nunes, M. João, 77 O Ocaña, Mauro, 165 P Palomino, Natalia, 205 Pessôa, Leonardo Antonio Monteiro, 319 Q Quisimalín, Mauricio, 239

Author Index R Rodrigues, António, 65 Rosales, Marco, 165 Rouco, Carlos, 77

S Samhan-Arias, Alejandro, 77 Sánchez-Guerrero, Javier, 129 Santos, Gilda, 77 Shabani, Milazim, 87, 295, 329 Silva, Raphael Corrêa, 319 Sousa, João P., 77

T Torres-Carrión, Pablo V., 179

V Vale, Alberto, 283 Valério, Gabriel N., 77 Vargas, Estefania, 109 Vasquez, Omar David, 217 Vaz, Pedro, 283 Vega-Rosales, Karina, 263, 273 Victor, José Avelino, 121, 337 Vidal, Larissa, 29 Vigouroux, Gauthier, 53

Y Yarleque-Bayona, Geraldine, 273