Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation (GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences) 3030699323, 9783030699321

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GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Jan Kiciński Patryk Chaja

Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation

GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences Editor-in-Chief Paweł M. Rowi´nski , Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland Series Editors Marek Banaszkiewicz, Warsaw, Poland Janusz Pempkowiak, Sopot, Poland Marek Lewandowski, Warsaw, Poland Marek Sarna, Warsaw, Poland

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8821

Jan Kici´nski · Patryk Chaja

Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation

Jan Kici´nski Distributed Energy Department Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery Polish Academy of Sciences Gda´nsk, Poland

Patryk Chaja Distributed Energy Department Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery Polish Academy of Sciences Gda´nsk, Poland

The GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences Book Series is in part a continuation of Monographic Volumes of Publications of the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, the journal published since 1962 (http://pub.igf.edu.pl/index.php). ISSN 2190-5193 ISSN 2190-5207 (electronic) GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences ISBN 978-3-030-69932-1 ISBN 978-3-030-69933-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Energy and climate neutrality are not only political, business and scientific issues, but also civilization challenges

22nd of April—International Earth Day

“People do not have knowledge, they have opinions. They do not think, but they think they know better. Someone has to rectify it” Szymon Malinowski

Series Editors

Geophysics

Space Sciences

Oceanology

Geology

Astronomy

Paweł Rowi´nski Editor-in-Chief Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Ks. Janusza 64 01-452 Warszawa, Poland [email protected] Marek Banaszkiewicz Space Research Centre Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Bartycka 18A 00-716 Warszawa, Poland Janusz Pempkowiak Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences Powsta´nców Warszawy 55 81-712 Sopot, Poland Marek Lewandowski Institute of Geological Sciences Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Twarda 51/55 00-818 Warszawa, Poland Marek Sarna Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Centre Polish Academy of Sciences ul. Bartycka 18 00-716 Warszawa, Poland [email protected]

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Managing Editor

Anna Dziembowska Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences

Advisory Board Robert Anczkiewicz Research Centre in Kraków Institute of Geological Sciences Kraków, Poland Aleksander Brzezinski ´ Space Research Centre Polish Academy of Sciences Warszawa, Poland Javier Cuadros Department of Mineralogy Natural History Museum London, UK Jerzy Dera Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences Sopot, Poland Evgeni Fedorovich School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma Norman, USA Wolfgang Franke Geologisch-Paläntologisches Institut Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt/Main, Germany

Series Editors

Series Editors

Bertrand Fritz Ecole et Observatoire des Sciences de la Terre, Laboratoire d’Hydrologie et de Géochimie de Strasbourg Université de Strasbourg et CNRS Strasbourg, France Truls Johannessen Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Bergen, Norway Michael A. Kaminski Department of Earth Sciences University College London London, UK Andrzej Kijko Aon Benfield Natural Hazards Research Centre University of Pretoria Pretoria, South Africa Francois Leblanc Laboratoire Atmospheres, Milieux Observations Spatiales, CNRS/IPSL Paris, France Kon-Kee Liu Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences National Central University, Jhongli Jhongli, Taiwan Teresa Madeyska Research Centre in Warsaw Institute of Geological Sciences Warszawa, Poland Stanisław Massel Institute of Oceanology Polish Academy of Sciences Sopot, Poland

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Antonio Meloni Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica Rome, Italy Evangelos Papathanassiou Hellenic Centre for Marine Research Anavissos, Greece Kaja Pietsch AGH University of Science and Technology Kraków, Poland Dušan Plašienka Prírodovedecká fakulta, UK Univerzita Komenského Bratislava, Slovakia Barbara Popielawska Space Research Centre Polish Academy of Sciences Warszawa, Poland Tilman Spohn Deutsches Zentrum für Luftund Raumfahrt in der Helmholtz Gemeinschaft Institut für Planetenforschung Berlin, Germany Krzysztof Stasiewicz Swedish Institute of Space Physics Uppsala, Sweden Ewa Szuszkiewicz Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics University of Szczecin Szczecin, Poland Roman Teisseyre Department of Theoretical Geophysics Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences Warszawa, Poland

Series Editors

Series Editors

Jacek Tronczynski Laboratory of Biogeochemistry of Organic Contaminants IFREMER DCN_BE Nantes, France Steve Wallis School of the Built Environment Heriot-Watt University Riccarton, Edinburgh Scotland, UK Wacław M. Zuberek Department of Applied Geology University of Silesia Sosnowiec, Poland ˙ Piotr Zycki Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Centre Polish Academy of Sciences Warszawa, Poland

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Thoughts Just a Little Bit Polished

Why is it so difficult to admit that humans are responsible for evolving climate changes? Previous changes of the Earth’s temperature and CO2 , a relatively low content of CO2 in the atmosphere (0.03%) and small contribution of anthropogenic factors in the greenhouse effect give us a false sense of security. This creates the situation, where some of the publicists or even scientists use these facts for spreading the opinion that current temperature and CO2 growth is a natural geological earth cycle and humans do not have anything in common with it. Climate denialism (rejection of the idea that climate changes are caused by humans) has a strong position in the world. Such a thinking is a trap. If fact, we are in the state of fragile climate balance. The essence of this problem does not refer to the absolute amount of CO2 , but it refers to the RATE of its growth in the atmosphere due to the large amounts pumped to the atmosphere every year (37 billion tonnes). The nature is not able to balance such a high growth with natural processes that last hundreds or even thousands of years. The evolving climate changes will not fully destroy the life on Earth, but they can pose a threat to civilization as we know it today with its abundance and quality of life. Climate “apartheid” is another dimension of climate injustice – i.e., developed countries (conventionally: Rich North) are responsible for most of emissions but it is the citizens of the poorest countries (conventionally: Poor South) that will suffer most of all. Is the yellow-blue transformation based on sun and hydrogen a a Holy Grail searched for energy industry and for our civilization? Community Energy—a beautiful vision, where the citizen is the subject, not the object of the energy market, and has its own virtual advisor on smart grids and data processing technologies in digital cloud. Some information on global entropy of the world. Comprehensive environmental policy and coherent conservative policy prove to be convergent only at the local level. And, indeed, only at the local level there is a real hope for improvement. There is no evidence that global political institutions have done anything to limit the global entropy. On the contrary, by encouraging global communication and xiii

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Thoughts Just a Little Bit Polished

destroying national sovereignty and legal barriers, they fostered global entropy and weakened real sources of resistance against it. Roger Scruton, Green Philosophy People will not solve climate problems related to the use of various waste as a fuel until the phenomenon of energy poverty is stopped. Currently, all governments of the world are faced with a significant civilization challenge consisting in taking active measures in the fight with climate.

The Book in a Nutshell

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Instead of an Abstract—Something that is Worth Remembering

The Book in a Nutshell

The Book in a Nutshell

The answer to the question: Quo Vadis energetics?

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The Book in a Nutshell The following topics cannot exist without social commitment: Energy Poverty Smart Ci es Industry 4.0

Energy poverty is inherently related to the problem of smog and poor quality air in many parts of the world

Smart Ci es of the future do not consist of technology only but also of all the people who use them wisely.

Industry 4.0 is mainly a knowledgeable management of resources using the latest IT solu ons closely coupled with changes in human behavior.

The Book in a Nutshell

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The role and the contribution of the Institute Contribu on of IMP PAN ini a ve to the na onwide effort related to the Green Energy Transi on. Green technology hits developed at IMP PAN

About This Book

Smart City orIs the world energy standing at the crossroads? Will the evolving climate changes and rapid development of new areas, such as the Internet, IoT, Smart City or e-mobility not force us to look at the world’s energy future from a completely new perspective? What are the real visions and prospects of development related to this? Who is right: big engineering corporations and politicians or ecologists and various types of visionaries? Is the transformation based on the Sun and hydrogen the Holy Grail of energy industry? The authors of this book attempts to find answers to these and many other questions. Nowadays, we can accept as proved the thesis that such rapid climate changes, having a negative impact on our civilization, are related to high-emissive and loweffective energy industry. Energy industry and climate are not only political, business and scientific issues, but also civilization challenges. If we are to save the Earth, it is necessary for our civilization to change the mentality and develop the ideas that provide that economic growth and high consumption are not the priorities, but the priority is the harmonious development in accord with nature. In order to do so, we also have to change the way of thinking about the energy industry and global transformation. The main message of this book is based on the above general comments and clear statement of fact that, in the long term, a major shift from traditional large-scale energy based on fossil fuels to disseminated energy based on renewable sources is inevitable. The above message is obviously in line with the author’s personal views on this issue. However, the authors attempt to present the other, very often controversial opinions in this monograph. It is worth answering the question why it is so difficult for many people to admit that humans are responsible for evolving climate changes. The aim of the book is also to underline to role of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery in Gdansk in the process of energy transformation in Poland. xxi

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About This Book

Poland is a powerful example here due to the fact that the Poland’s energy system is strongly based on fossil fuels, mainly on coal, which means that challenges related to the climate changes and energy transformation are nowadays vividly discussed here. Both in the context of climate and energy policy of the country and the European Union as a whole, the Institute, as a leader of a dozen high-budget, nationwide and European eco-energy projects, contributed, to some extent, to creating of conditions for development of proconsumer or more civic energy industry in Poland. Community energy is a beautiful vision, where the citizen is the subject, not the object of the energy market, and has its own virtual advisor on smart grids and data processing technologies in digital cloud. The so-called technological “green hits” in IMP PAN were presented as the evidence of its role in the process on energy transformation in Poland. The authors of this book do not feel competent or authorized to assess the influence of other research centres on the process of energy transformation in Poland and worldwide. The book is an attempt to gather and systematise information circulating in the world of science and beyond. Every reader is invited to develop his own point of view on the issues contained herein. The book is addressed both to usual citizens, ecologists, climatologists, and to politicians and experts accounting for shaping country and global climate and energy policies. This book is an attempt to find the most optimal solutions for the problem of our civilization which grows from year to year and relates to accelerating climate changes on our planet. Note: Some of the information that the reader will find in this book has also been included in the book Green Energy Transformation by Jan Kici´nski1 . This book was published in 2020 in Polish. Because it was very well received by the Polish scientific community focused on the subject of climate change and energy transformation, those scientists encouraged the authors to expand the book with additional social aspects and disseminate it to a wider audience by publishing it in English.

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J Kici´nski, Zielona Transformacja Energetyczna, ISBN 978-83-88237-96-6, Wydawnictwo IMP PAN, 2020.

Contents

Part I

Some Information on Climate and Emissions. World Transformation on the Example of Poland

1

Introduction—Some Facts and Opinions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3

2

Some Information on Climate and Emissions. Where Are We Heading? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Fragile Climate Balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Reports of IPCC and WMO. In the Centre of Disputes . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Interesting Scenarios of National Geographic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Other Opinions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 Climate Apartheid. Climate Denialism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7 8 10 12 14 17 19

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4

CO2 Emissions. Will the European Union Become “Don Kichot” in a Lonely Fight? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 European Green Deal. A New Idea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Will Coronavirus Pandemic Slow Down the Process of Green Deal? Will It Change the World? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 European Green Deal—Road Map—Key Actions . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy Industry: Visions, Forecasts, Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 We Need to Look at the Energy for the Future from Another Perspective—The Role of New IT Tools, Electromobility, Smart Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Is the Sun and Hydrogen Age Ahead of Us? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Scenarios of the International Energy Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Dominant Position of Renewable Energy Sources . . . . . 4.3.2 Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.3 Hydrogen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.4 WWS (Wind, Water, Sun) Plan—100% RES . . . . . . . . . .

21 22 24 30 31 33

34 39 40 41 43 44 45

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Contents

4.3.5

Community Energy Based on Disseminated Energy Appliances/Renewable Energy Sources Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.6 Transformation Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.7 Prospective Technologies for Community Energy . . . . . . 4.4 Power-to-X Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

6

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Transformation in Poland. Scenarios. Controversies. Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 Official Documents: Energy Policy of Poland Until 2040 (EPP2040), Energy Plus, Report of the Power Engineering Problems Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences . . . . . . . 5.2 European Green Deal Versus Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Other Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 Smog—Pressing Problem of Poland and Other Eastern European Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 Electromobility in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 Polish Hydrogen Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 Controversies—Dilemmas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Which Energy Mix for Poland and for Other Countries of the World Based on Coal Energy? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 The Role of Gas in Energy Mix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 “My Energy” Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 Closed Circuit Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

79 83 84 86 87

Part II

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Human Impact on Progressive Climate Change, New Trends in Social Behaviour in the Fight Against Climate Change

7

Afterthoughts and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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8

Energy Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 8.1 Description of the Phenomenon and Definition of Energy Poverty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 8.2 Energy Poverty and the Problem of Smog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 8.3 Preventive Actions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100

9

Smart Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 Introduction to the Subject of Smart Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Standards Sharing, Integration and Activation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 Smart City Standards—Building the Foundations of ALLternet Infrastructure (ALL) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

101 101 104 107

Contents

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9.4

Development Opportunities Based on the Idea of Smart Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 10 Industry 4.0—The Fourth Industrial Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 What is the Fourth Industrial Revolution? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 Industrial Revolutions in the Past and Their Impact on the Environment and Urban Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 What is Industry 4.0? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.1 Beacons, Geolocation and Augmented Reality . . . . . . . . 10.3.2 Cloud Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.3 Artificial Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.4 Big Data and Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.5 Systems Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.6 Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 Social Aspects of Industry 4.0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 Industry 4.0 and Business . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

115 115 117 118 122 124 128 132 133 134 135 139 140

11 A Few Words to Sum Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Part III Influence of Technologies Developed at IMP PAN on the Process of Energy Transformation in Poland 12 Before We Start . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 13 Polish Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery in a Nutshell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.1 Polish Academy of Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.2 The Robert Szewalski Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.3 Topics, Structure, Research Teams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.4 Science Schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 Historical Background with a Hint of Nostalgia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 Branch Office—KEZO Research Centre in Jabłonna . . . . . . . . . . 14 How to Start the Energy Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.1 The Direction of Energy Transformation According to the Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.2 Smart Municipality/Smart Region as an Example of a Possible Transformation Path . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.3 Energy Mapping and Selection of Appropriate “Clean” Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

147 147 149 149 153 166 168 175 175 182 185 190

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Contents

15 Technologies Necessary to Carry Out the Energy Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 Introduction, Presentation of the Institute’s Key Projects . . . . . . . 15.2 Municipal Energy Centre (GCE)—A Computer System for Managing Energy Resources in Municipalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3 Energy Technologies for Agricultural Municipalities . . . . . . . . . . 15.3.1 Installation of Gasification of Straw Bales . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3.2 Microturbines in Food Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3.3 Purification of Syngas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.3.4 Agricultural Biogas Plant. Installation in Bałdy . . . . . . . 15.3.5 Installation for Obtaining Water Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 Large Installations on an Industrial Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ˙ 15.4.1 “Zychlin” Installation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4.2 “Szepietowo” Installation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4.3 “Luba´n” Installation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4.4 “Bałdy” Installation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.5 Cogeneration Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.5.1 Laboratory of Polygeneration Micro-Power Plants . . . . . 15.5.2 Pyrolysis Gasifiers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.5.3 Cogeneration System with Fuel Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.5.4 Prototype of the ORC Home Microgeneration Plant with Micro-Turbines and a Multi-Fuel Boiler . . . . 15.5.5 Coupled Biomass Gasification System with SOFC Cells . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.5.6 Development of Microturbines at IMP PAN. Use of Waste Heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6 Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6.1 Hybrid Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.6.2 Heat and Cold Storages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.7 Anti-smog Technologies Developed at IMP PAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.7.1 Low-Power Electrostatic Precipitator for Older Boilers in Domestic Installations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.7.2 Ultra-Low Emission Coal Boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.7.3 Home Cogeneration Plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.7.4 Scaling. A Series of Types of Higher Power Plants . . . . . 15.7.5 Fighting for Clean Air. National Clean Air Centre at CB KEZO in Jabłonna . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.8 Institute’s Works for the Development of Hydropower . . . . . . . . . 15.9 Small Wind Energy at IMP PAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9.1 Introduction and Basic Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9.2 Design and Operation of Windmills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9.3 An Innovative Solution of IMP PAN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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16 Other Activities of the Institute for Energy Transformation . . . . . . . 16.1 LowTEMP Project—Low-Temperature City Heating . . . . . . . . . . 16.2 Act Now!—Reduction of Energy Consumption in Buildings . . . . 16.3 WASTEMAN Project—Waste Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.4 CIRTOINNO Project—Circular Economy for Tourism . . . . . . . . . 16.5 The Green Gate of Kashubia (Kaszuby in Polish) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.6 Legionowo Energy Cluster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.7 SuPREME Project—Works at CB KEZO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

253 253 255 257 260 262 264 267

17 Summary and Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271

Part I

Some Information on Climate and Emissions. World Transformation on the Example of Poland

Chapter 1

Introduction—Some Facts and Opinions

Food, air, water and energy are fundamental needs for humans and for the whole our civilization. It is a trivial statement. In this monograph we will mainly concentrate on energy, its transformation and interrelations. There are many indications that we are standing at the crossroads. But, are these concerns founded? It is worth considering in which place we are today and what our future is. Let us start from a few points. At first, please note that we witness the most important demographic event in the world: over the lifetime of a single generation (45 years) the population growth has doubled (from 3 billion in 1960 to 6.5 billion in 2005). It will not happen anymore! For the next 45 years, there will be about 9 billion people and what is worse this growth will be very uneven: the world average +40%, of which in the Eastern Europe − 25%, the USA +33%, Africa +175! It will translate into increased needs on a global scale, also in the energy sector. In the case where it is not possible to satisfy them, it will correlate with the growth of civil unrest. It is estimated that the poverty area will disappear (living for 1 dollar per day), but the huge differences on the standards of living at different continents will remain. It will result in an enormous social and political problems and unknown challenges for the world’s energy. Secondly, the world energy is dramatically low-effective. Figure 1.1 demonstrates it very clearly. For 100 units of energy contained in primary fuels (coal, oil, gas), we are able to process in a way that is directly useful for us only 9.5 of units. The rest is lost in power plants through pipes, valves, transmission (pumps, engine) and in the process of distribution through energy lines and locally—Fig. 1.1. Will there be technologies that substantially improve this situation? We will see. NEGAWATTS (saved energy) are always cheaper than MEGAWATTS (generated energy). It gives an impulse for enormous investments in energy efficiency in its wider sense in many countries in the world. Thirdly, resources of fossil fuels are limited. If we look at them as mean resources for our globe, taking into account the average prognosis of their consumption (with © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_1

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1 Introduction—Some Facts and Opinions

Fig. 1.1 Low efficiency of energy processing at the world scale—for 100 units contained in primary fuels, we are able to use only 9.5 of units. Right side: line of energy losses from power plant to distribution. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Fig. 1.2 The average world resources of fossil fuels—global sufficiency of resources. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

differentiation for particular countries or continents), the oil and gas will be sufficient for approximately 50 years and coal and uranium—for approximately 100 years— Fig. 1.2. It is dramatically low!

1 Introduction—Some Facts and Opinions

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Fig. 1.3 The sun energy—inexhaustible source for our civilization. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

Fourth. Emission capacity of the world economy and climate is changing. This fact poses a real threat for the quality of human’s life or even for human’s existence. We will provide more details in the next chapter. Fifth. The sun is an inexhaustible source of energy—Fig. 1.3. A moment of reflection on Figs. 1.2 and 1.3 leads to the conclusion that generally there is only one direction of transformation: from fossil fuels to the sun. What is under discussion is only the time of this transformation and transition periods in various regions of the world. Approximately 45% of the sun energy that reaches Earth we can potentially use both in a direct (e.g., PV cells, collectors), and indirect form in the process of production of other green fuels, such as hydrogen. Taking the above aspects into account (demographic explosion, low energy efficiency, limited resources of fossil fuels, emissive capacity of the economy and climate changes, as well as inexhaustible source of sun), many fields of human activity, especially including the world energy stands before the necessity of an immediate revision of previous, and traditional ways of development and reassessment of priorities. The alternative is a large-scale crisis. Pessimists say: do not ask IF there will be a crisis, ask WHEN. But it does not have to be like that. Willing to look at the energy transformation issues more carefully, we need to focus on several key issues, such as climate change and emissions, development of the Internet (Smart City, Industry 4.0, smart management) and electromobility. Widely understood Energy in its wider sense, that is traditional energy industry, transport and heating sector are inextricably linked with these issues.

Chapter 2

Some Information on Climate and Emissions. Where Are We Heading?

In the geological history of Earth, many times we faced enormous changes of the globe’s average temperature and CO2 content in the atmosphere—Fig. 2.1. What is more—the rich life on Earth developed in conditions, where the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was much higher than nowadays. Even in the last 1000 years we had “the Medieval Climate Optimum” (950–1250), when the shores of Greenland became green and the Little Ice Age (1300–1850), when the Baltic Sea was frozen. Figure 2.2 allows us to reveal that as far as CO2 is concerned, despite its relatively small amount in the atmosphere (0.03%), its contribution to the greenhouse effect is more than 100 times higher (3.62%). Human contribution to the greenhouse effect is approx. 0.3%—it is an important conclusion illustrating the current state. Wrong interpretation may lead to misleading conclusions. What is more, this amount may change in the nearest future. Vapour water is the largest contributor to the greenhouse effect, accounting for 95%—Fig. 2.3. It is worth noticing that without natural barrier in a form of greenhouse gases, the average global temperature of Earth would be minus 18 C degrees. Life would not be possible on Earth. The globe temperature is stabilized by two mechanisms: coal cycle and coal thermostat. Without these two mechanisms, we would have either “The Snowball Earth” or “The Venus Earth” [1]. Greenhouse effect, coal cycle and coal thermostat are natural mechanisms stabilizing the climate and the atmosphere developed by nature throughout thousands of years. Previous changes of the Earth’s temperature and CO2 , relatively law content of CO2 in the atmosphere (0.03%) and small contribution of anthropogenic factors to the greenhouse effect give as a false sense of security. This creates a situation where some of the publicists or even scientists use these facts for spreading the opinion that current temperature and CO2 growth is a natural geological earth cycle and humans do not have anything in common with that. What is the truth? © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_2

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Fig. 2.1 The Earth geological cycles. In the Earth’s geological history, we have already had higher average globe temperatures (and higher amounts of CO2 ). Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Fig. 2.2 A contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors to the greenhouse effect. Human contribution amounts to approx. 0.3%. It gives us a false sense of security. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

2.1 Fragile Climate Balance Humans pump to the natural cycle 37 billion tons of CO2 a year. And while it may not be a high amount in comparison to the total CO2 amount circulating in nature, it is therefore appropriate to ask if the nature would have enough time to neutralize this dramatic additional growth and there is a question concerning the climate balance, a

2.1 Fragile Climate Balance

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Fig. 2.3 Greenhouse effect. Balance of heat delivered and heat radiated. Greenhouse gases are the natural surface protection of Earth, without which there would be no life. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

very fragile one. Mechanisms stabilizing the climate balance that take place on Earth for many thousands of years have been described in [1] (Fig. 2.4). Dramatic increase of greenhouse gases emissions in the last decades is the real problem. The scientists’ studies reveal a dramatically high RATE of CO2 growth in the atmosphere on a geological scale. As NASA reveals carbon dioxide concentration is increasing at a drastically fast rate. Over the years 2006–2019 it jumped from 380 to 411 ppm (parts per million, i.e., parts per million parts of air). In 1960 it was at the level of 318 ppm,

Fig. 2.4 Fragile climate balance. What is the limit of global warming? Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

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and in the pre-industrial era—approx. 280 ppm. Current CO2 concentration at the level of 411 ppm generated an increase of the Earth global temperature of about 1.1 °C in comparison to pre-industrial age (the end of XIX century). Nowadays, the rate of CO2 growth indicates that we will not wait another 150 years for the next degree of global warming increase. A famous Al Gore and Hilary Clinton’s report stating that since 650 thousands of years, the CO2 content in the atmosphere has never been as high as it is now, certainly gives reason to worry. It is difficult to imagine that this rate was not caused by humans. While we can agree with opinions that the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere (at certain limits) would not affect the human body, but this growth can lead to catastrophic consequences as far as global warming and climate changes are concerned (tornados, droughts, floods, land disappearance, etc.) The Earth’s global temperature increase of one degree means a lot. The following legitimate question arises: will our civilization cope with such changes? What is the limit of global warming we must not exceed?

2.2 Reports of IPCC and WMO. In the Centre of Disputes The most serious and reliable source of information on global warming and climate changes are reports of international organizations, such as: • • • • • •

IPCC—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change WMO—World Meteorological Organisation IRENA—International Renewable Energy Agency IEA—International Energy Agency Climate Summit COP21 in Paris documents (2015) Climate Summit COP24 in Katowice documents (2018).

The most important conclusions from reports of the first two (IPCC as of October 2018 and WMO as of September 2019) are shown in Fig. 2.5. Full extensive IPCC information is available under the following links: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ Climate Change and Land: https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate: https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/ Emissions Gap Report 2019: https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissi ons-gap-report-2019. Generally, they provide two key and alarming conclusions: • climate changes are faster than it was presumed • human impact on climate is obvious.

2.2 Reports of IPCC and WMO. In the Centre of Disputes

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Fig. 2.5 Official papers of IPCC, WMO and the main conclusions. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

The second conclusion is unfortunately contested by many politicians and some scientists not only because of the aforementioned reasons. Disputes have developed and their essence is shown in an illustrative way in Fig. 2.6.

Fig. 2.6 Does human activity impact the climate change? Set of arguments. The fight for limitation of the Earth global temperature growth below 2 °Cwill be probably lost. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

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Why is it so difficult to admit that humans are responsible for evolving climate changes? Of course, as ever, politics and economy, i.e., the interests of major industrial corporations and ambitions of the economic development of poorer world countries are behind this. Social opinion, position of the major part of scientists and experts, position of media and celebrities are of great importance. It is, however, difficult to predict how things will be in the nearest future. An opinion that humans do not have impact on climate changes has been already defined as “Climate denialism”. Unfortunately, this denialism holds a strong position in the world. Patronising policy of some world’s superpower leaders (e.g., the USA, China) or developing countries (India, Brazil) is a key in this respect. There is no reason to expect that ambitious climate policy of the European Union countries, especially including the last agreement, the so-called “Green Deal”, or the position of famous world celebrities (Al Gore, Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Leonardo DiCaprio) are able to inspire the whole world effectively. Therefore, everything suggests that we will lose the fight for reducing of global warming by 1.5 °C for sure; probably, the fight for 2.0 °C will be lost as well. It means that historic Paris agreement (COP 21—December 2015) will not be practically binding. The signals that it will happen sounded quite clearly on Climate Summit COP 24 in Katowice in 2018. Despite the so-called “Katowice Rulebook” that has been singed, the world is far from arriving at concrete agreements for climate protection. The essence of the dispute is the placement of “green energy industry” in the world economy system. It is a great loss for the humanity! Almost 200 countries participated in the UN Climate Convention in Paris. The aim of the agreement that has been signed was to stop global warming at a level “significantly below 2 °C”. It was the first climate agreement of that magnitude in history. However, referring to the famous publication in Science [2] our planet is changing and it is an adverse change. We have already exceeded 4 of 9 critical changes (Climate change, Biosphere integrity, Biogeochemical flows, and Land-system change). This raises substantial concerns for present and future generations.

2.3 Interesting Scenarios of National Geographic In April special issue of National Geographic commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Earth Day, two scenarios of the Earth state development until 2070 have been published—optimistic and pessimistic version. The arguments speaking for each of these scenarios subjectively selected by the authors of this monograph are presented in Fig. 2.7 and the most important sentences of these scenarios are shown in Fig. 2.8. Editors of National Geographic do not suggest which of these two scenarios would happen. It is difficult to predict it exactly. One thing is certain: in order to make the optimistic scenario come true, we as a civilization need to reconstruct our mentality and create ideas, where the economic growth for the whole sake and high

2.3 Interesting Scenarios of National Geographic

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Fig. 2.7 Selected arguments for development of each of two scenarios. A figure prepared on the basis of material presented in National Geographic No. 4/2020

Fig. 2.8 The most important sentences of each of two scenarios. A figure prepared on the basis of material presented in National Geographic No. 4/2020

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Fig. 2.9 The most important mission of our civilization. The price is the future for next generations. Earth will be able to survive without us, but we cannot survive without Earth

consumption level are not priorities but the priority is the harmonious development in accord with nature—Fig. 2.9. This will be an extremely difficult task, due to the fact that economic growth and thus high consumption level and quality of life have become almost a religion in people’s strivings. Such type of striving is actually something natural, so how, in this situation, to change attitude or even mentality of all generations? Where are we heading then? Probably it will be a hybrid of these two scenarios, which is difficult to predict, and in an extreme case, a pessimistic scenario will take place.

2.4 Other Opinions Worrying information has emerged in the article published in April 2020 in Nature by a group of scientists from the RPA, the USA and Great Britain [3]. It indicates that climate changes can result in extinction of many species, already in this decade. Global warming would deprive these species of climate niches. As much as 15% of ecosystems in total would be affected by these death changes, including almost all that exist along the Equator. We would face an explosion of great extinction, the sixth one in the 4-billion-year history of life, but the first caused not by volcanoes or asteroid fall but by one of the species living here. But there is also worrying information for these species: …The upper limit that blocks out the possibility to live everywhere in the world is so called the temperature of wet thermometer. This is the factor which combines the temperature with air humidity measured by meteorologists by folding thermometer with a wet cloth. If the temperature of wet thermometer exceeds 35 C degrees, human body is not able to cool down by sweating and dies. Currently, the maximum temperature of wet thermometer reaches in some places approximately 32 C degrees, but studies of recent years show that with a global warming, it is becoming dangerously close to the limit of 35 degrees. And many places can be soon unfit for normal human life…

Professor M. W˛esławski, the Head of the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences in Sopot in the interview for Gazeta Wyborcza as of 11 April 2020 pays attention to the necessity to develop a different lifestyle in the fight for nature and climate—Fig. 2.10.

2.4 Other Opinions

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Fig. 2.10 Interview of Prof. J. M. W˛esławski for Gazeta Wyborcza. We need a new ideology: not the economic growth but the balance with nature

The main issue, according to Prof. W˛esławski, Is the change of mentality and ideology of Rich North. He states: ….The problem is that we speak from the position of a rich man, sitting on a high stool and giving instruction to all of the poor from global South how to live now. The truth is that we were luckier, as we were given 10 years of climate comfort. Only in our part of the world it was possible to grow crops, breed animals, build foundations for industry, when Intuits or Indians were hunting. They were not less intelligent than us. It was simply because the nature did not allow them for anything else… …The basic thing the Rich North could do is to develop a new ideology. Not the economic growth, but gaining balance with nature. Currently we eat not how much we need but it is to show that we are wealthy and extinguished. It is worth taking self-control. You don’t have to install conditioner, have a huge car or eat shrimps exported from the end of the world. There are happiness factors indicating that it is not necessary to collect and produce more and more goods to gain life satisfaction and psychological balance ….

Those are fine words but one may have doubts whether they convince all those, who are delighted by high consumption from the Rich North and the economic growth has become almost a religion all over the world. On portal www.teraz-srodowisko.pl as of 1 June 2020, Prof. Szymon Malinowski, atmospheric physicists, the Head of the Institute of Geophysics of the University of Warsaw and cofounder of portal Nauka o Klimacie www.naukaoklimacie.pl states that: …For development of civilization we exploit the planet resources to its limits. All the time we strip the nature more and more. But we live thanks to the nature… …Anthropogenic emission of CO2 is not all. The real catastrophe will take place when, as a result of our activity, greenhouse gases collected in permafrost and on the ocean floor will be released. It has already happened in the geological history of Earth…

The Professor has formulated a beautiful and a really true motto:

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Fig. 2.11 Frames of the film “It’s okay to panic”. You Tube: https://www.youtube.com/Ramsey United

People do not have knowledge, they have opinions. They do not think but they think they know better. Someone has to rectify it.

The film “It is ok to panic”—Fig. 2.11, directed by Jonathan L. Ramsey with Prof. Szymon. Malinowski in the main role is an important event. This film, available on YouTube under link https://www.youtube.com/RamseyUnited may serve a warning to our generation, but also to politicians, on whose decisions much depends on climate issues. Other Polish publicist also warn against the pessimistic course of our affairs, the ˙ evidence of which is publication of Jacek Zakowski, a publicist of Polityka and the Head of Journalism Department at Collegium Civitas in Warsaw, in portal “Gazeta Wyborcza” as of 14.04.2020 under the meaningful title “Our world is going to crash into birch. Pull up!” [4]. ´ ateczny of GW), to whom Jacek Witold Gadomski, in turn (in Magazyny Swi˛ ˙Zakowski refers to, states that: There will be no better world. It is not a bad news. It is tragic news.

And further: …In a less dynamic form for years we observe murderous helplessness of this world in confrontation with climate changes and smog. Two decades we are aware of the approaching catastrophe. But this world acts in such a way, that we’ve done almost anything to mitigate its effects…

There are thousands of opinions on climate change and its impact on our civilization. But publications in the most prestigious magazines in the world, Nature [3] and Science [2], on the issue of a great extinction explosion or on exceeding 4 of 9 critical changes on Earth must cause the greatest concern to us. How justified the meaning of message presented in Fig. 2.11 is?

2.5 Climate Apartheid. Climate Denialism

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2.5 Climate Apartheid. Climate Denialism On portal gazeta.pl in December 2019 an interesting interview with the UN expert Philip Alston has been published [5]. This interview referred to the UN report published in the middle of 2019 on the impact of climate crisis on the poverty of societies. Its author, Philip Alston, professor of international law having experience in the UN high positions, used the term “climate apartheid”. The scientist estimates that global warming will strike the poorest parts of the world, but the rich would be able to avoid the worst effects. Climate apartheid is another dimension of climatic injustice—i.e., developed countries (conventionally: Rich North) are responsible for most of the emissions but it is the citizens of the poorest countries (conventionally: Poor South) that will suffer most of all. A real challenge is to support businesses in such a way that they will be able to undergo energy transformation by themselves. To support them in such a way that they will be able to switch to the business, e.g., connected with renewable energy sources. The so-called climate denialism, i.e., a rejection of the idea that climate changes are caused by humans), is a serious obstacle here. This opinion, as you can see, has already gained its name. Unfortunately, denialism holds a strong position in the world and in Poland as well. In the opinion about Poland, Prof. Alston states: …I do not see the Polish government doing much on any of these issues (this is about energy transformation). They speak about it a lot, and try to receive more funds from the European Union. But it seems that climate denialism holds a strong position in Poland… …I think that in Poland the effects of climate crisis can be more serious than many Polish people think. They will be visible in agriculture, including in what is possible to grow; droughts and floods can seriously disturb provision of food. Source of income may be lost not only by miners, but also by many people in agricultural areas. And now we start to notice extreme weather phenomena. Besides, it is important for Polish people to see themselves as a part of the world not as an isolated country that somehow will experience it in a different way…

The opinion of Prof. Alston on the impact of climate changes on democracy and human rights is worth mentioning here: …The whole future of democracy is in some sense threatened by climate changes. We notice that democratically chosen governments are not prepared to deal with them. Australia or the United States look four years ahead and do not care what will happen next. Just to the next elections. It is not the approach that can be maintained. When the climate changes will seriously strike the world and people will demand serious reaction, democracy may not be able to ensure it. On the other hand, the authorities may announce emergency and use it to limit human rights and to strike at minorities or migrants…

Meanwhile, in the shadow of our problems related to climate apartheid and climate denialism, the adverse changes in nature are accelerating.

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On the same portal gazeta.pl as of April 2020 [6] we can find alarming information on the record ice melting in Greenland. In 2019 glaciers in Greenland have shrunk more than ever in the history of measurements—the scientists confirm. This is the effect of a very high temperature but also less snowfall and sunny summer. Two summer months were enough for melting 600 billion tons of water—enough to raise the level of sea of about two mm. “We are destroying in decades everything that was built over thousands of years,”—this is the opinion of Prof. Marco Tedesco from the University of Columbia. In conversation with Reuter Agency he said that what is happening to Greenland will affect the whole world. Also in Poland, there were various events and conferences popularizing threats resulting from climate changes and issues of energy industry based on renewable energy sources. We will only mention two of them, which took place in 2019. The UN Conference organized jointly with the Polish Academy of Sciences on climate changes, which took place in the University of Warsaw library on 23 October 2019 is worth mentioning—Fig. 2.12. The Conference was streamed live on Facebook, so over ten thousand of people participated in it. There were much more entries to FB in order to download recorded files of panellists’ presentations. The Conference was attended by the minister M. Kurtyka, and the Polish Academy of Sciences was represented by: the President of PAN—J. Duszy´nski, the V-ce President of PAN—P. Rowi´nski (the main organizer) and two panellists from PAN, prof. M. W˛esławski—the Head of the Institute of Oceanology PAS and J. Kici´nski—The Head of IMP PAS in Gdansk.

Fig. 2.12 The UN—PAN major climate conference at the University of Warsaw

2.5 Climate Apartheid. Climate Denialism

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Fig. 2.13 AREOPAG renewable energy conference. Warsaw, 11 December 2019

The next event in the country related to the climate and RES issues that are worth noticing is the second edition of AREOPAG Conference organized by the Ministry of National Assets on 11 December 2019—Fig. 2.13. The primary goal of this initiative was to develop frames of constructive expert dialog with representatives of the government administration focused on developing ideas and solutions useful for implementation of sustainable energy strategies. The main conclusions made on the Conference related to directions of RES market development, its potential for marketing and ability to cooperate with conventional energy were shown both in national media, and in numerous branch portals.

References 1. M. Popkiewicz, A. Karda´s, S. Malinowski, Nauka o Klimacie, Wydawnictwo SONIA DRAGA Sp.z o.o., ISBN: 978-83-8110-752-5 (2018) 2. W. Steffen, K. Richardson, J. Rockström, S.E. Cornell, I. Fetzer, E.M. Bennett, R. Biggs, S.R. Carpenter, W. de Vries, C.A. de Wit, C. Folke, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, G.M. Mace, L.M. Persson, V. Ramanathan, B. Reyers, S. Sörlin, Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science 347(6223), 1259855-1 (2015) 3. C.H. Trisos, C. Merow, A.L. Pigot, The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change. Nature, 08 Apr, 2020. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2189-9# auth-2 ˙ 4. J. Zakowski, Nasz s´wiat leci na brzoz˛e. Pull up!, interview in Gazeta Wyborcza, 17/04/2020. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25854815,nasz-swiat-leci-na-brzoze-pull-up.html

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5. P. Alston, Interview in gazeta.pl, Dec. 2019, Klimatyczny apartheid nie ominie Polski i bogatych. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,174372,25529816,ekspert-onz-klimat yczny-apartheid-nie-ominie-polski-bogatych.html 6. Gazeta.pl, 17 Apr 2020. Rekordowe topnienie lodu na Grenlandii. https://wiadomosci.gazeta. pl/wiadomosci/7,174372,25875992,rekordowe-topnienie-lodu-na-grenlandii-w-dekady-niszcz ymy.html

Chapter 3

CO2 Emissions. Will the European Union Become “Don Kichot” in a Lonely Fight?

One of the most essential factors which may have impact on climate and many human generations are CO2 emissions. The volume of these emissions depends on many fields of human activity, including: transport, industry, agriculture and, of course, energy. We take care of energy issues as it is our main subject of this monograph. The issue of energy policy in the European Union is regulated by many acts of law; some of them are listed below: …Council Decision (EU) 2016/1841 of 5 October 2016 on the conclusion, on behalf of the European Union, of the Paris Agreement and Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Governance of the Energy Union, amending Directive 94/22/EC, Directive 98/70/EC, Directive 2009/31/EC, Regulation (EC) No 663/2009, Regulation (EC) No 715/2009, Directive 2009/73/EC, Council Directive 2009/119/EC, Directive 2010/31/EU, Directive 2012/27/EU, Directive 2013/30/EU and Council Directive (EU) 2015/652 and repealing Regulation (EU) No 525/2013…

World Energy Council [1], a serious source of information, lists three main scenarios of the world energy development (primary energy consumption, electricity production and emissions)—with the use of a little bit funny music terminology: 1.

2.

3.

MODERN JAZZ—high economic growth, innovative economy, high impact of digitization, dominance of free market mechanisms, high media influence on political decisions, dynamic changes of ruling elites, general access to energy UNFINISHED SYMPHONY—domination of regulatory mechanisms, consumption taxes, pro-ecological incentives, moderate economic development, international organizational structures in the areas of safety, environment and energy, and strongly developed, innovative centralized energy) HARD ROCK—unstable economic growth, poverty and increase in social inequalities, ineffective international policy, political conflicts and occasional armed conflicts, centralized energy based on own, stable energy resources, unstable commodity prices.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_3

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The above scenarios relate to global energy industry in all of its aspects. Their analysis is not the subject of this monograph. However, the opinion of the Power Engineering Problems Committee of the National Academy of Sciences, which also referred in its report [2] to these scenarios and claimed that the situation in Poland will unfortunately be similar to HARD ROCK scenario (because of the share of coal in electricity production in the nearest two decades), is worth mentioning. Let us look more carefully at the last energy-climate initiative of the European Union. It is the greatest initiative of such type on the history of Europe. This is, of course, the European Green Deal.

3.1 European Green Deal. A New Idea In December 2019 European Commission presented the European Green Deal— an ambitious set of measures that lead the Europe to climate neutrality in 2050 and enable the European citizens and entrepreneurs to gain benefit from sustainable green transformation. So far, these are not legislative propositions, but this is a schedule, which includes, among others, raising the climate target of the UE to 2030 and reaching climate neutrality by the middle of this century. Countries that depend on fossil fuels will receive funds for transformation. If the European Green Deal project were fully realized, then Europe, in the second half of this century, would be the first climate-neutral continent. Climate neutrality means not only the limitation of the Earth’s global temperature and reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, but also such activities as: clean energy (greener energy sources), sustainable industry (environmentally friendly production cycles), construction and renovation (clean construction sector), sustainable mobility (clean transport), biodiversity (ecosystem protection), from farm to fork (sustainable food chain) and elimination of other wastes. This is a comprehensive program of actions, the aim of which is to improve quality of human life. In opinion of many politicians, publicists and scientists, the European Green Deal is the most ambitious project developed so far and the greatest change and challenge of our times. But does it have a good chance of success? Only in the UE there might be difficulties. Energy and transport have the largest share in greenhouse gases emissions—above 80%—Fig. 3.1. According to many experts, transport in the UE (the same as in the world) will remain dependent on oil for a long time. Without reduction of greenhouse gases emissions in transport, which absorbs one third of energy in the EU, it would be difficult to reach ambitious climate goals. The EC report shows that until that time very little will change as it would be driven mostly by high-emissive oil, which would still satisfy 86–87% of demand.

3.1 European Green Deal. A New Idea

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Fig. 3.1 Emission of greenhouse gases in the EU by sectors and countries. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Today it powers 94% transport in Europe. As the EC predict, in the middle of century it will be 49–51% [3]. The second problem of the EU is a patronising policy of some of the UE member states. In spite of the fact the EU as a whole emitted in 2018 2.5% of CO2 comparing to 2017, there are countries, that within the same period reported an increase—Fig. 3.1. Unfortunately, Poland is a leader here. It has the highest growth in the European Union and sixteenth the highest growth in the world. This increase per capita in Poland was even higher than in China and India—see: BP Statistical Review, September 2019. Europe has adopted the European Green Deal, but will the other countries of the world follow this example? There is a lot of indications proving that it would not be the case. The greatest superpower of the world, i.e., the USA, declares that they do not have such ambitions (for 30 years the level of CO2 emissions will be similar to the present day’s one). The same is with the other countries (China, India, Brazil). The European Union as a whole emits now only 10% of the world amounts of CO2 . This emission at a world scale is still increasing and there is no indication that this trend will change in the nearest future—Fig. 3.2. The principal question arises then: do the climate efforts of the Europe have sense? Will the expensive Green Energy transformation find support in the rest countries of the world? Will the European Union become “Don Kichot” in a lonely fight? As an answer it is worth to mention the statement of the European MEP Jerzy Buzek at the last European Economic Congress in Warsaw [4]: …We as a Europe have to show the world – it is our civilizational duty – that it is possible to stop using fossil fuels, to maintain employment for people and that it is still possible to be the most attractive continent for billions of citizens of the whole world…

There is a justified threat that until climate changes do not pose a direct threat to the existence of our civilization, the support of the world superpowers and the whole “rest of the world” for climate activities of the EU will remain

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Fig. 3.2 World emission of CO2 is steadily growing; in the last 60 years this quantity quadrupled. The UE as a whole emits 10% of the world amounts of CO2 . Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Fig. 3.3 An important sentence taken from climate considerations

restrained or only declarative (unfortunately, it cannot be excluded that they also would be hostile). There have been cases of hostile behaviour towards climate activists in Brazil (or even their murder), intentional setting fire to the Amazon forest. Or not very pleasant gestures towards All Gore in the USA. The above comments are worth remembering as an important message of this chapter—Fig. 3.3.

3.2 Will Coronavirus Pandemic Slow Down the Process of Green Deal? Will It Change the World? This monograph was edited within the period of March–June 2020, that is, during the period of the largest epidemics in after-war history of the world, called the coronavirus. It stopped economies of many countries and forced people to stay at home or work remotely.

3.2 Will Coronavirus Pandemic Slow Down the Process …

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Fig. 3.4 Time of coronavirus pandemic and a very serious question

The question whether global pandemics will have an impact on energy policy of the European Union, especially Green Deal seems to be obvious—Fig. 3.4. This question may be asked in a wider sense: Will it change the world? At first, fragments of opinions of very important figures of the UE are worth mentioning, that is: Frans Timmermans—vice-president of the European Commission, and Bertrand Piccard—founder and president of Solar Impulse foundation promoting new energy technologies published in Gazeta Wyborcza on 17 April 2020 [5]: …The thesis that Green Deal is a luxury we cannot afford is false. Without it we will become the victims of floods, droughts, fires, sea level increase and desertification. What is more, degradation of nature and melting permafrost will confront us with new unknown viruses… …Although a sudden lockdown – suspension of mass production and transport –is harmful for our economy, it allows us to see how this world might look like, if we electrify transport and limit the use of fossil fuels in the industry. Instead imaging clean air in the centre of our cities, we can feel it today in real… …Green Deal is a strategy of growth, where one of the goals is the protection of environment. Renewable Energy and clean technologies provide a great chance for economy and industry. They create the future brighter than return to the economy based on fossil fuels, which is unstable and unpredictable…

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Fig. 3.5 Fragment of Frans Timmermans and Bertrand Piccard opinion published in portal wyborcza.pl on 17/04/2020

The above fragments force us to reflect. It may be summarized by the sentence presented in Fig. 3.5. In his official statement, Frans Timmermans announced that the European Commission maintains its plan of raising the target of reduction of CO2 emissions until 2030 to 50–55% comparing to the levels of 1990. Now this goal is 40 percent. Timmermans expressed his position more clearly in his message to members of the European Parliament [reprint in the portal wnp.pl/energetyka as of 21 April 2020]: … European Commission does not resign from streaming to decarbonisation and moving the European economy to ways that are friendlier for environment….. Opponents of tightening rigour claim that in the face of pandemic we should rather think about suspension of the EU emissions trading system (EUETS) for 2–3 years in order to support industry and coal energy. But it does not seem to be like that. Commission is willing to use the crisis to fulfil its climate ambitions more effectively…

˙ Polityka of 14 April 2020 published an interview of Jacek Zakowski with Jacques Rupnik, a French political expert born in Prague, the scientific director of CNRS (French equivalent of the Polish Academy of Sciences) under intriguing title: What a new normality would be? (after coronavirus pandemic). Selected fragments are worth mentioning: …In the Western world there are strong ideas that swelled after crisis in 2008 (financial crisis), but they could not breakthrough. Now people mention it more willingly, because the majority of them understand that this catastrophe (coronavirus pandemic) did not come as a bolt from the blue. Even people who did not take care very much about the environment and focused mainly on economic growth seem to understand that our relations with nature have become a problem. This may be one of the signs of a new order…

And some rather shocking statements:

3.2 Will Coronavirus Pandemic Slow Down the Process …

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…But first of all, the faith that the market will do everything is weakening. Pandemic revealed how much this concept is untrue and how risky the system created by an uncontrolled market is, and how the public services that are based on non-market principles are important for us… …Market economy vendors, the same as Marxists, believe in absolute primacy of economy. But Marxists tried to fight with it, and market economy vendors are for subordination. Pandemics, the same as climate crisis, but much more strongly, force people to think about life in a different way and to look for a better set of values…

In Gazeta Wyborcza on 19 April 2020 Janusz Lewandowski, Eurodeputy of Civil Platform, former Minister of Ownership Transformations and EU Commissioner for Financial Programming and Budget has published rather optimistic article under title: “The European Union is strengthening in crisis”. These are the most important fragments of this article: …The consequences of current crisis – the same as two previous ones – the origin of which lies outside the Europe – are unknown. Futuristic prophets as to the fate of our planet after struggling with pandemic are smartly multiplied … Free societies creating the EU are becoming mature for new challenges. They will find the answer to pandemic and the Europe without boundaries…

And rather emotional conclusion: …New global crises create an opportunity for demagogues to announce slogans about alleged collapse of the European Union. No way!

Dominika Kulczyk—investor and philanthropist, the head of Kulczyk Foundation, in portal wysokie obcasy.pl on 18 April 2020 has published her interesting observations: …The World for any reason brought itself and us to a revolution. Pandemic is a test for our humanity. All the time we try to understand what is happening with our world. And we all spread our arms helplessly. There is only one probability: after pandemic we will awake in a completely different reality…

But not all of the opinions welcome the initiative of Green Deal during pandemic. The mounting pressure is exerted on the UE by representatives of some governments, and some experts and publicists, so as to slow down the process of gaining climate neutrality in times of economic crisis caused by pandemic. Portal krytykapolityczna.pl published on 20 February 2020 an article under title: The European Green Deal is a good example of greenwashing, in which the authors Janis Warufakis and David Adler state: …If we cast a critical eye over all of this, the Green Deal for Europe does not prove itself in three important criteria: size, structure and scope. … Despite the president promises „the wave of green investments”, actually it will be only a shift of funds between various already existing EU funds… Actually only 7.5 billion euro will be generated for new budget liabilities distributed between seven years…

The opinion of the International Energy Agency “Coronavirus slows down development of renewable Energy. A support of governments is necessary” sounds quite dramatically. And further:

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3 CO2 Emissions. Will the European Union Become … …Coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented threat for renewable energy sources sector. Supply chains disturbed, construction projects suspended and administrative obstacles, those are only a few challenges the investors have to cope with. And now is the time, more than ever, when governments and economy stimulating programmes offered by them play a key role in saving this sector …

There are also opinions of social or even philosophic character related to coronavirus—see: portal Pomorski Przegl˛ad Gospodarczy ppg.ibnr.pl as of 12 May 2020, in which the author Andrzej Halesiak states: …The world after coronavirus – normal abnormality? The materially focused world leads to domination of the matter under spirit, „me” over „us”, „today” over “future” and “capital” over “work”. To correct these imbalances, retouching and adjustments are not enough. We need to shift paradigms that lie in the foundations of units and societies functioning. Paradoxically, the current situation is a great opportunity to stop, look at your life, consider why I think what I think, and why I do what I do. And then instead of foreseeing, let us start to create our world „after virus” knowingly…

There are more similar opinions: A position of Polish authorities and other Polish organization is worth mentioning here. The Minister of Climate M. Kurtyka in an interview as of 3 April 2020 for portal wnp.pl/energetyka admitted that coronavirus pandemic may bring negative effects for energy sector condition in Poland, but at the same time he added: coronavirus pandemic will not stop energy transformation. …Coronavirus Pandemic will not stop decisions taken by Poland for the benefit of energy transformation sector. Current situation may become an opportunity to accelerate changes and to make more efforts for the benefit of creating modern energy of the future based on low-emissive or non-emissive sources…

But in the interview for TVP 1 of 17 April [reprint in the portal wnp.pl/energe tyka] Minister Kurtyka stated that: …because of coronavirus pandemic, part of solutions of the European Green Deal will be delayed. It is not possible to reconcile it with activities on the benefit of economy reconstruction, maintain functioning of social systems and countries…

Minister Kurtyka underlined at the same time in the same interview that long-term challenges for energy transformation remain unchanged. A more clear position was expresses by Minister Kurtyka a bit later in the same portal wnp.pl but on 19 May 2020 and 18 May 2020: …European Commission would like to raise targets of CO2 emissions reduction until 2030 from current 40 percent to about 50–55 percent – Let the Commission first provide calculations how much such target will raise costs and what costs for particular countries it will create… …It cannot be excluded that part of solutions related to Green Deal will be delayed due to the fact that reconstruction of economy will be the basic task… …Energy transformation is rather a multi-year process – the Minister of Climate Michał Kurtyka said during the debate on Energy industry: “Energy, Energy industry, market in a different way”, which took place within EEC Online. – We are all aware that this after virus economic reality will be a large breakout, it is hard to estimate how large it will be…

3.2 Will Coronavirus Pandemic Slow Down the Process …

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The most sharp and clear position was taken by trade union “Solidarno´sc´ ”. On 24 March 2002 the head of union Piotr Duda appealed to the president of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen: “….Currently, the Europe stands in the face of a serious economic crisis. The system of payments for carbon dioxide emissions should be suspendedimmediately. Otherwise our country will face a deep recession…” [reprint of this appeal in the portal wnp.pl/energetyka as of 25 March 2020]. The Polish Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce [GIPH] addressed an open letter in a similar sharp tone to the president of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, in which it stated that a rapid worsening of economic situation in the world creates a necessity of a deep revision of the European Green Deal strategy. It was created in a completely different economic situation and it is unsuitable for current conditions—the portal wnp.pl as of 30 April 2020. In conclusion, an interesting article in portal wnp.pl as of 25 May 2020 under title: Japanese have electricity almost for free. The effect of coronavirus and investments in RES is worth mentioning, when we read that: …Energy prices in Japan have dropped almost to zero – already in February for the first time a price for kilowatt hour reached the level below 1 yen and in April this trend has become stronger. The reason is the lower economic consumption of energy, but also the fact that the Cherry Blossoms Country derives more energy from the Sun. Germans came into conclusion that green energy is profitable and they destroy next nuclear power stations…

The coronavirus pandemic caused one positive effect: global carbon dioxide emission may in 2020 decrease by even about 7%, depending on implemented limits and social distancing measures—it results from studies published in magazine Nature Climate Change as of 19 May 2020. To sum up, in may be stated that despite such various comments, both positive and critical on current recession caused by coronavirus pandemic, but also comment of a more general nature, the European Green Deal is a way to a new world, it is an opportunity for saving Earth and, most of all, the civilization as we know for today. Pandemic did not annul goals of Green Deal or climate policy of the EU. It may however modify its tools and give a new boost to it—Figs. 3.6 and 3.7.

Fig. 3.6 Despite the criticism, the European Green Deal is still an opportunity to our civilization

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Fig. 3.7 Timeline of actions planned within the scope of the European green deal (from the official EU website]

3.3 European Green Deal—Road Map—Key Actions Key actions the EU provided for within the scope of Green Deal (Roadmap—Key actions) are published under address: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/european-green-deal-communicationannex-roadmap_en.pdf. Official website of the European Union: https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_pl Provides for a lot of information related to the European Green Deal and much more. Timeline of actions is presented in Fig. 3.7 and key areas of actions with proposal of possible tender calls are shown in Fig. 3.8.

3.3 European Green Deal—Road Map—Key Actions

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Fig. 3.8 Key areas of actions within the scope of the European green deal [from the official website of the EU]

The road map of EU actions within the scope of the European Green Deal (Figs. 3.7 and 3.8.) is not enough for all, especially for environmental organizations. For example, in portal wnp.pl as of 31 May 2020 (article of Dariusz Ciepel “the European Green Deal only on a half engine power?) the following opinion of international NGO and environmental organization WWF www.wwf.pl can be found: …European Commission propositions are not enough and omit many essential issues on climate protection. WWF estimates that although it may be true that the reconstruction plan based on sustainable and climate neutral economy is still a priority of the European Union, it omits very essential issues…there are no mechanisms ensuring that any funds spent by the EU members will not be used for environmentally harmful investments…

So we are dealing with the dilemma: for some, actions of the EU on climate and energy transformation are exaggerated or even not acceptable in many world countries, while for others they are insufficient.

References 1. World Energy Counsil, World Energy Scenarios. The grand transition. World Energy Counsil (WEC), London 2016

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2. Raport Komitetu Problemów Energetyki PAN—do pobrania pod linkiem. https://www.kpr oblen.pan.pl/images/stories/pliki/pdf/2019_monografia/Polska_Energetyka_w_Horyzoncie_2 050.pdf 3. Report: Global Commission on the Geopolitics, International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA, A New World. The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation, January 2019, ISBN: 978-92-9260-097-6. www.geopoliticsofrenewables.org 4. European Economic Congress Trends, Warszawa, 25.02.2020. https://www.trends.eecpoland. eu/pl 5. F. Timmermans, B. Piccard, Interview in wyborcza.pl, 17 April 2020, Zielony Ład czyli swiat po wirusie. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25873432,zielony-lad-czyli-swiat-po-wirusie.html

Chapter 4

Energy Industry: Visions, Forecasts, Scenarios

Various institutions, organizations, scientists, and publicists develop long-term scenarios, visions and recommendations in order to resolve one of the main problems of our civilization, e.g., energy sufficiency for future generations. It is a strong desire. There are so many materials on this issue, very often contrary to each other [1–12], that it is not possible to make a reliable synthesis. Anyway, some opinions that may illustrate the complexity of this situation expressed by people or institutions having a global influence on word energy are worth mentioning. The authors made a subjective selection of these two extreme opinions on both sides, that is: • the opinion of Exxon—Mobil company—a world energy leader considered as a heir of Rockefeller’s legacy [8] and • the opinion of Elon Musk, a visionary, founder of PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla Motors, who in recent times has become world famous [9]. These two opinions related to vision of 2040 may be pointed out as follows: Exxon—Mobil company. • • • • •

Oil and fossil fuels would not run out so fast (new reserves) For 30 years the world would still receive energy from fossil fuels in 80% RES would be a margin of global energy supplies there is no future for electric cars (they will comprise only 5%), hybrid means of transport are the future (every second car would be a hybrid). Elon Musk

• Future: disseminated energy, energy production for own needs, production of integrated household systems—pV panels—energy storage warehouses—electric car • public electric transport (elimination of wastes, oil prices decrease) • autonomic and automatic cars © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_4

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• shearing, i.e., car lending. It is easy to notice that these two opinions are extreme on both sides. Elon Musk announced his thesis, among others, in famous Master Plan Part Deux, gaining many proponents, but opponents as well. One can easily find much more contradictory opinions. We will mention one more characteristic view, in addition of the opinion of Exxon Mobil, that RES, despite trends, in 2050 would produce only 0.5–2% of world energy demand. For 20 years, gas would replace coal and would become the foundation of the world development—similarly as a cheap oil at one time. It is a brave prognosis. But would it become real? Gas has a lot of chances (in replacing coal) to become a source stabilizing the energy system but also only for some period of time. The above means that in scenarios related to development of energy even in the nearest future each opinion may be only subjective. It confirms the fact that the majority of earlier energy prognoses were not confirmed, thus many experts state that the purpose of making such a prognosis might be questioned. Thus, further opinions expressed by the authors are of similar character.

4.1 We Need to Look at the Energy for the Future from Another Perspective—The Role of New IT Tools, Electromobility, Smart Cities A few aspects and important circumstances that we have to take into account are the grounds of changing the way of thinking about energy and its development. We have already mentioned the most important of them, i.e., climate changes and emissions. There are other important factors, the role of which needs to be indicated. We need to begin from the fact that actually we witness a rapid development of IT technology, the Internet, and mobile applications. Particular interest is focused on the Internet of Things (IoT) which refers also to interconnected network objects of smart or of self-organizing type. Information revolution has created conditions for development of a new and rapidly developing concept, the so-called fourth industrial revolution, i.e., Industry 4.0. One of the tasks of Industry 4.0 concept is the implementation of IT technology in disseminated and proconsumer energy and to smart energy management. Figure 4.1 shows the newest trends in digital revolution. In connection to possibilities given by processing in Cloud Computing, new tools of a new quality arise, that may be also used in energy sector (especially in disseminated and community energy). The second important aspect is electromobility, Fig. 4.2, i.e., e-mobility in its wider sense. Electromobility is not only an electric car, but, most of all:

4.1 We Need to Look at the Energy for the Future …

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Fig. 4.1 New IT tools of a new quality that may be also used in energy sector, especially in disseminated energy soure: original drawing of the author of the monograph

Fig. 4.2 A look on electromobility from a different angle. Promising V2G technology. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

• planning, modelling and management of local energy systems with consideration of electric cars as a specific receivers/generators and energy storage warehouses • system of technical, organizational and legal solutions that enable development of greening transport. Here we get to the conclusion that an electric car is only a part of energy management system in disseminated generation and that hybrid systems, synergy effects,

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energy storage warehouses and obviously an electric car constitute, in fact, a Smart Energy System, so this is the system with a bright future. Smart Energy System may refer both to the scale of a singular building, where the subject matter of analysis and technological solutions are hybrid/module systems of energy sources for buildings, and to a housing estate, where the subject matter for consideration and implementation are energy clusters, especially including monitoring of a local power and heating system and creating various types of working scenarios for particular solutions—real or virtual, Figs. 4.3 and 4.4. In both cases, Smart Energy System is an obvious example of development of disseminated energy and Elon Musk’s future. And finally, a concept of a SmartCity. In the last years, it is not only a hit of publications and conferences but also a spectacular example of actions of many cities, companies and organizations all over the world. A concept of Smart City came through a few development stages. They are worth mentioning: Smart City 1.0—an early phase of creating smart cities—rather by force. • creating of ICT technology by large companies through cities • nobody has asked mayors or citizens if it is needed • result: Masdar (ZEA) or Songdo (South Korea) ghost cities Smart City 2.0—local authorities are the initiators, selective use of ICT technology, mobile applications. • an attempt to include city to the Internet of Things • public WiFi networks, traffic management, big data, counters • disadvantage: excessive technocracy of cities, citizens are placed in the background

Fig. 4.3 Smart energy system—housing estate scale. Energy clusters using, among others, V2G energy are future solutions with a large potential

4.1 We Need to Look at the Energy for the Future …

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Fig. 4.4 Smart energy management in housing estate—smart energy system

Smart City 3.0—Human Smart Cities—active position of citizens. • citizens’ own solutions (open data) • social, economic issues, quality of life • sharing economy As it arises from the above overview, a very important issue is that the Internet of Things and IT Technologies do not override the citizens’ needs. These technologies are to serve the citizens not to be a testing ground for corporations interested in them. The example of Masdar and Songdo cities is very meaningful. Obviously, Human Smart Cities (III generation) are a beautiful vision of development of cities and the goal for which the citizens of our globe should strive. It is a fulfilment of the eternal desire of our civilization to improve the Quality of Life—Figs. 4.5 and 4.6. In the above considerations, we omitted the role of traditional large-scale energy industry. It is obvious that it will have a dominant influence for many years in securing energetic safety of our civilization. In spite of the fact that it is based on fossil fuels, technological change will also be necessary here. According to many experts, the newest gas blocks, high-effective coal blocks based on clean coal technologies and vapour-gas combined systems will be the future [13–16]. Let us ask a rhetorical question: will all those aspects mentioned here, i.e., Climate changes and emissions, Internet of Things, Industry 4.0., e-mobility, Human Smart Cities and Smart Energy System have an influence on the development of energy for the future and will they change the traditional understanding of energetics as such? Of course, they will. It is shown in a demonstrative way in Fig. 4.7.

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Fig. 4.5 “Smart Cities” of third generation—a vision for the future. It is not only the Internet, but most of all the human needs and clean environment

Fig. 4.6 A new look at energy for the future. Its development will be influenced not only by traditional large-scale energy industry, but also by new, rapidly developing areas that may completely change traditional understanding about the role and meaning of the energy industry. So the question: Quo Vadis Energetics is justified? Original drawing of the author of the monograph

4.2 Is the Sun and Hydrogen Age Ahead of Us?

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Fig. 4.7 Prognosis for the use structure of primary energy sources in 2020 and in 2100. Will the next century be the age of sun for humanity? Will the hydrogen be a dominant fuel? Original drawing of the author of the monograph

4.2 Is the Sun and Hydrogen Age Ahead of Us? A rapid development of IT technologies (Internet of Things, Industry 4.0, Human Smart Cities) and an expected development of electromobiliy will influence the need for development of Smart Energy Systems, i.e., a shift of a large-scale energetics to the direction of disseminated energy. This tendency is confirmed by long-term prognosis on the use of primary energy sources. On analysing many available articles, materials of various companies and internet publications [1–13], despite sometimes incompatible character of some final conclusions, it seems to be reasonable to accept assumptions that in long term (e.g. after 2050), the structure of the use of primary energy sources will by undoubtedly changed—Fig. 4.7. The sun will be a dominant source of energy for humanity in the next century. Is the Age of Sun ahead of us then? If yes, technologies related to disseminated generation must dominate and the tendency of shifting from centralized energetics to disseminated one is unavoidable. Such tendency seems to be obvious comparing e.g., Figures 1.2 and 1.3, i.e., the limited fossil fuels and unlimited sun energy sources. In a more recent period (e.g.,: until 2050), the situation may look differently. In the nearest future changes that take place in energy industry will probably be a compromise between centralized energetics and disseminated one or even civil one. Of course, nobody knows in which proportions and at which pace it would be. But we can agree with the thesis that in long-term perspective centralized energetics based on fossil fuels is unlikely.

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Fig. 4.8 From civilization of coal, oil and gas to civilization of sun and hydrogen. Qualitative transformation of sources stabilizing the energy system: from coal and gas to hydrogen and energy storage warehouses. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

The role of hydrogen received both from RES and fossil fuels is worth noticing. According to many prognoses its share at the end of our century in the structure of primary energy sources will be dominant, but difficult to estimate [15]. Is the sun and hydrogen age ahead of our civilization then? Fig. 4.7. Energy transformation at each stage of its development demands sources that stabilize the energy network. Currently, this role is fulfilled by coal and gas, but gas will play this role for a longer time. But in further perspective, this role of coal or even gas must be taken by other sources. There are a lot of indications that it will be hydrogen and energy storage warehouses working in a hybrid system with other RES or nuclear energy—Fig. 4.8. A role of sources stabilizing the energy system is underestimated by some publicists, e.g., by radical ecologists or other proponents of rapid connection of RES to the system.

4.3 Scenarios of the International Energy Agencies It follows from the above considerations that despite various opinions and prognosis, in further perspective, our civilization will be forced to use renewable energy sources to a greater extent with simultaneous transformation of stabilizing sources. Direction of changes, from fossil fuels to renewable sources, seems to be obvious. These changes may be accompanied by a beautiful message presented in Fig. 4.9.

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41

Fig. 4.9 Global energy transformation and a beautiful message attached to it. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

Fig. 4.10 Three main directions of a global energy transformation: towards RES, better efficiency and electricity. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

Prognoses and reports of official energy organizations, such as IRENA or IEA, indicate that the key issues include not only a shift to renewable sources, but also the improvement of efficiency and a shift to electricity, i.e., electric energy carriers, to a much greater extent. These changes will take place in a triangle, as shown in Fig. 4.10, i.e., RES, efficiency, electricity. Such a great role assigned to electricity may come as a surprise, but it directly results from the use of RES and hydrogen as fuels of the future.

4.3.1 Dominant Position of Renewable Energy Sources According to the report of IRENA agency [17] the world after energy transformation will look differently, even in the half of our century. On studying this wide material, the most essential conclusion may be presented in a clear form as shown in Fig. 4.11. Dominant position of RES in important sectors of the world economy is noticeable. Renewable sources are widely understood here, not only its direct use in a form of biomass and biofuels, but most of all during

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Fig. 4.11 The world after energy transformation. Final consumption of energy in 2050. Dominant position of RES in selected economy sectors. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sourcess—on the basis of selected data from IRENA [17]

production of electricity by production of hydrogen, batteries, pV installations and heating pumps. Long-term prognoses of the primary energy demand according to this agency are as shown in Fig. 4.12. Attention is drawn to an exponential increase of RES demand up to the “overtake” point in 2050, in which global demand for fossil fuels and RES is the same. A prognosis for the end of century definitely envisages the advantage of RES.

Fig. 4.12 From IRENA report [17]. Long-term prognosis for fossil fuels and RES demand

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43

Fig. 4.13 From a report of IRENA [18, 19]. Electricity will become the main energy carrier in the future (from about 20% in 2016 to about 50% in 2050 r.). Legend: EJ—exajoules, RE—renewable energy, DH—district heat

IRENA agency, in another report [18], states as follows: “… electricity is the fastest growing segment of final demand on energy, which grows two-thirds faster than the use of energy as a whole from 2000… In spite of the fact that nuclear energy is a low-emissive technology, perspectives of its growth seem to be limited. After fast expansion in the 1970s and 1980s, the growth of nuclear energy slowed down in the last three decades …”. This result of analyses is rather surprising. It is the electricity that will be the main energy carrier, not the nuclear energy. This is clearly illustrated in Fig. 4.13 from another IRENA report [18, 19].

4.3.2 Electricity Figure 4.13 is a fragment of a road map for RES until 2050, the so-called “REmap Case 2050” prepared by this agency [19]. A few interesting conclusions result from it. • in 2050, electricity will constitute almost half (49%) of all energy carriers and 86% of which will derive from renewable sources. It is an increase of RES share in electricity production from 24% in 2016 to 86% in 2050. • share of fossil fuels will decrease from 66% on 2016 to 26% in 2050, but share of coal (35) will almost disappear. • RES share in production of district heat: from 9% in 2016 to 77% in 2050

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• final total energy consumption in 2050 will not increase, but it will even decrease (from, 395 EJ to 351 EJ). So: Electricity, in connection with renewable energy, is an essence of global transformation. The above synergy will not only contribute directly to the reduction of CO2 emissions, but it will also bring a beneficial socio-economic changes by strengthening the role of proconsumer and community energy industry. Indirectly, electricity in connection with RES will increase the energy effectiveness and global energy demand. The above conclusions are also confirmed by International Energy Agency [IEA, www.iea.org]. Conclusions from reports of this agency may be presented in the following fragment: …with continuous growth of energy production from renewable sources, RES will constitute the majority of world energy reserves within 50 years, significantly reducing greenhouse gases emissions...

4.3.3 Hydrogen The report of IRENA agency regarding hydrogen as a fuel of the future is worth mentioning [20]. Currently, there are the following options of hydrogen production: • grey hydrogen, i.e., the production of hydrogen based on fossil fuels • blue hydrogen, i.e., the production of hydrogen on the basis of fossil fuels in connection with coal capture, use and storage (CCS) • green hydrogen, i.e., the production of hydrogen from renewable energy sources It is estimated that in the coming years, the production of green hydrogen produced with the use of renewable electric energy will increase rapidly. From technical point of view, the production of green hydrogen is now fairly under control. But there is a question of its profitability. Today, unit cost of production of energy from hydrogen is 1.5–5 times higher in comparison to natural gas. In may change in the future. The way of receiving green hydrogen by water electrolysis sounds promising. Even today, in some countries (e.g.,: Germany) projects of high power electrolysers are being developed. Renewable hydrogen is undoubtedly the future, but nowadays it is produced mainly from natural gas and coal (grey hydrogen—approx. 95%). The IRENA report [20] shows that in 2050 the share of electric energy carriers in global consumption will constitute 50%, with the green hydrogen share estimated at the level of 8%—Fig. 4.14. Hydrogen received by water electrolysis, the so-called e-hydrogen, is a key factor of technology of the future defined as Power-to-X (see Sect. 4.4).

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45

Fig. 4.14 From IRENA report [20]. Comparison of electric carriers of energy share in 2016 (19%) and 2050 (50% including 8% of green hydrogen) in relation to global energy consumption

4.3.4 WWS (Wind, Water, Sun) Plan—100% RES Jacobson et al. went further with their scenarios [21] by developing a road map for 139 countries based in 100% on WWS (Wind, Water, Sun), i.e. on RES. The WWS Plan estimates a significant slowdown of global warming and almost total elimination of death toll caused by air pollution in as many as 139 countries. This plan requires electrification of all energy sectors (transport, heating/cooling, industry, agriculture/forestry/fisheries) and providing electric energy in 100% of wind, water and sun energy, i.e., WWS. Full implementation of WWS plan until 2050 will allow maintaining the path of global warming increase at the level up to 1.5 C degrees and at the same time to avoid millions of deaths caused by air pollution. Besides, the WWS plan provides for a reduction of global demand for energy as much as about 4.25% with simultaneous increase of the amounts of power cuts. But doesn’t the Jacobson’s et al.’s WWS plan [21] concerning as many as 139 world countries seem to be too beautiful and thus unrealistic? Is it really possible to maintain current energy system on the basis of renewable sources only? Not only Jacobson et al. [21] but many other experts state that a wellplanned system of locally sustainable energy sources together with solutions related to demand management and energy storing will be able to function as efficiently as the contemporary centralized system based on fossil fuels. While we can agree that in a long-term perspective this vision is real, now or even in a short-term perspective it is unlikely. According to Jacobson et al.’s [21] implementation of WWS plan (Wind, Water, Sun) in 139 world countries will ensure

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in 2050 the decrease of global demand for energy as much as about 42.5% and maintaining the growth of the Earth global warming at the level of 1.5 °C.

4.3.5 Community Energy Based on Disseminated Energy Appliances/Renewable Energy Sources Technologies Energy transformation and increasing share of RES will introduce new market players: citizens, communes, cities. It may change the structure of political and economic power, as renewable sources have tendency to decentralize and democratise the energy systems. We are taking about the proconsumer energy sector (where the citizen is a consumer and producer at the same time) and in a wider sense about the community energy sector, which becomes the essence of off-grid disseminated generation (offgrid renewable energy systems). These changes will create a more diversified energy ecosystem. The role of centralized country in such a system may change. New actors and new business models will appear. Local and disseminated energy sources will give households and societies more autonomy than centralized network systems. Rapidly decreasing costs of photovoltaics and wind energy, along with rapid development of IT systems and smart management, will lead to the situation in which almost everyone who has a roof or any territory may produce electricity for own consumption or to the network. These changes will create new relations not only between people but also between countries. Previous alliances may be reconfigured, competition (in oil and gas sector) may be mitigated, and at the same time the potential conflicts may be diminished. The Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems, HRES, and the Stand-Alone Power System, SAPS, may provide a pathway to community energy [22]. HRES and SAPS systems are becoming more and more popular and in substance they play the role of commune/local energy centres CES or may be the part of clusters or energy cooperatives. Another name frequently used for it is AER—Autonomic Energy Regions [23–25]. All the above mentioned names simply mean Disseminated Energy Appliances (DEA) based on Renewable Energy Sources (RES), abbreviated to DEA/RES. Generally, DEA/RES refers to technology, while the term Community Energy Industry CE seems to have a wider sense [26]. Typical DEA/RES include, in general, a few methods of producing electric energy, heat, energy storage and regulation. These are, thus, hybrids of various, most economical configurations. Community Energy Industry, however, in its widest sense means citizens’ energy freedom, the same as ICT information technologies some time ago meant the citizens’ informational freedom—Figs. 4.15 and 4.16.

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47

Fig. 4.15 An important sentence related to community energy

Fig. 4.16 Community energy based on DEA/RES technologies is a key element of energy transformation. Legend: DEA—Disseminated Energy Appliances, RES—Renewable Energy Sources Original drawing of the author of the monograph

At another level, community energy is a triangle of mutual relations of: DEA/RES disseminated energy technologies, smart energy systems and cloud computing— Fig. 4.17. This last element may create in the future something like remote Diagnostic Centre, where experiences of hundreds or thousands of individual users will be kept, it may be possible to download various applications, to build expert systems and update their data and knowledge basis. This kind of Community Energy is becoming something more than only a local energy source. Figure 4.18 (taken from IRENA report [22]) shows how comprehensive the field of Community Energy influence may be in technological, environmental, economic and social aspects. It provides a good answer to the question, why Community Energy and why it is worth to implement it.

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Fig. 4.17 Community energy is a triangle of mutual relations of: technology, smart energy management and cloud computing. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

Fig. 4.18 From IRENA report [22]. A wide spectrum of positive influence of Community Energy. An answer to the question why it is worth to implement it

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4.3.6 Transformation Costs A question about global transformation costs in a long-term perspective is very difficult. Data provided by different sources are uncertain, and, what is more, very different. It is obvious that these costs will be enormous. However, the IRENA agency estimates are worth mentioning here [17]. If we assume the perspective of 2050 and the path for entry to the maximum permissive level of global growth of temperature by 1.5 °C, the costs of transformation are astronomical: USD 110 trillion.

4.3.7 Prospective Technologies for Community Energy In the context of comments from previous chapters, it is easy to predict that in the nearest future, IT information technologies (IT) will develop the most dynamically, also referring to community energy. Smart management and smart grids are the essence of disseminated energy, as they are based on information technologies. Blockchain technology adjusted to the energy market is very famous in recent times. Decentralization and dissemination—a characteristic feature of this technology allows—eliminating intermediaries in supplies of electric energy. It gives consumers a possibility to buy and sell energy to and from the other consumers. Automation and optimization of buying and selling process and its real-time monitoring are also possible. Energy storage warehouses, both heating and electric one, will be also facing an intense development. Referring to community energy, the use of hydrogen for energy storage is worth noticing—it is a promising direction. Wider implementation of solutions known from nanotechnologies to photovoltaics may improve the quality and sustainability of cells and limit the frequency of uncomfortable cleaning of these cells (and the use of so priceless water). It is also a promising field for studies. In wind energy, alongside traditional efforts to improve the quality of wind turbines, the future studies in a higher extent may be focused on the influence of concentration of large windmills in groups (research on air flow and improvement of efficiency at the same time) and their environmental impact. Of course, traditional elements of disseminated energy, such as household cogeneration power plants, micro-turbines, installations that use waste heating and installations that use biomass and municipal wastes will still play an essential role [27–33]. These prospective technologies in an illustrative way are shown in Fig. 4.19.

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Fig. 4.19 Prospective technologies of the nearest years. Particular attention should be paid here to development of IT technologies. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

4.4 Power-to-X Technologies For decades, cogeneration, referred to as CHP, i.e., simultaneous producing of power and heat, was the way to increase efficiency of energy received from fossil fuels. Power-to-X technology is the symbol of a new approach to energy transformation, which simply means transformation of electric energy received from renewable sources to hydrogen by water electrolysis. The E-hydrogen received in such a way, is in turn used for production of e-liquids or e-gases marked with the symbol of X that can be energy carriers easy for direct use or storage. This process is in 100% free of CO2 emissions. Thus, it is commonly assumed that Power-to-X technologies result in revolution in the world of energy and are the way to non-emissive economy and energy industry decarbonisation. In Power-to-X concept, there is still an open question for costs of such type of transformation. Currently, a majority of hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels (steam reforming of methane or autothermic reforming of natural gas). Business models, however, indicate that depending on localization and useful life of electrolyser, e-hydrogen could constitute a certain market alternative even today. But future belongs to this technology due to the expected rapid decrease of costs of electrolysers’ production and the process as such. So, the e-hydrogenhas the chance to become a fuel for the future.

References

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16. 17.

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23. 24. 25. 26.

27.

International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics (2015) Pictures of the Future, Siemens, The Magazine for Research and Innovation, Fall (2009) Przyszło´sc´ energetyczna: w jaki sposób zapewni´c energi˛e po wyczerpaniu surowców? www. futurenergia.org/ Przyszło´sc´ energetyczna. www.shell.pl/ Hawking ostrzega: Ludzi czeka zagłada. www.rp.pl Sztuczna inteligencja za miliard dolarów. www.rp.pl Jaka b˛edzie energia przyszło´sci? Exxon Mobil podał prognozy na 2040 rok. www.gazetapra wna.pl/ Elon Musk pokazuje przyszło´sc´ energetyczn˛a s´wiata. https://www.odnawialnezrodlaenergii.pl Energetyka rozproszona – w drodze do niskoemisyjnej Polski, Debata ekspercka, Mariusz Wójcik. https://www.chronmyklimat.pl/ Dylematy polskiej energetyki, M. Nowicki. www.csm.org.pl, 01/2016 J. R˛aczka, M. Swora, W. Stawiany, Generacja rozproszona w nowoczesnej polityce energety´ cznej, Materiały Forum “Energia-Efekt-Srodowisko”. https://forumees.pl/ M. Pawlik, Priorytety inwestycyjne krajowego parku elektrowni, Nowa Energia, nr 5–6 (53– 54)/2016 W. Nowak, I. Majchrzak-Kuc˛eba, A. Majchrzak, Ograniczenie emisji CO2 z energetyki, Raport, Wydawnictwo Politechniki Cz˛estochowskiej. ISBN 978–83–7193–473–5, 56 str., 2010 T. Chmielniak, S. Lepszy, P. Mo´nka, Energetyka wodorowa - szanse i bariery, Współczesne problemy termodynamiki. Monografia. Praca zbiorowa. Pod red. Tomasza Burego i Andrzeja Szl˛eka. Gliwice: Wydaw. Instytutu Techniki Cieplnej, 2017 Z. Kabza, Badania chłodni kominowych i wentylatorowych. W: Miernictwo energetyczne. Cz. 2. Pomiary energetyczne maszyn i urz˛adze´n cieplnych. Wrocław, 1974 IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency, Transforming the Energy System—and Holding the Line on the Rise of Global Temperatures (2019). ISBN 978-92-9260-149-2. www. irena.org/publications Report: Global Commission on the Geopolitics, International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA, A New World. The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation, January 2019, ISBN: 978-92-9260-097-6. www.geopoliticsofrenewables.org IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency, Global Energy Transformation. A Roadmap to 2050, 2019 edition, ISBN 978–92–9260–121–8. www.irena.org/publications IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency, Hydrogen: A Renewable Energy Perspective, 2019, Tokyo, September 2019, ISBN: 978–92–9260–151–5. www.irena.org/publications M.Z. Jacobson, et al., 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight. All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World, Joule 1, 108–121, Sept 6, 2017 IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency, Off-Grid Renewable Energy Solutions to Expand Electricity Access: An Opportunity not to be Missed (2019). ISBN 978–92–9260– 101–0 A. Cenian, J. Kici´nski, P. Lampart, Nowa, tzn. rozproszona zrównowa˙zona energetyka prosumencka, Nowa Energia nr 6/2012, ,str.:23–28, ISSN 1896-0886 A. Cenian, J. Kici´nski, P. Lampart, Energetyka prosumencka- szansa rozwoju krajowego przemysłu maszynowego, Czysta Energia nr 10/2013, ISSN 1643-126X A. Cenian, J. Kici´nski, P. Lampart, Quo vadis energetyko? Dlaczego małe i rozproszone jest pi˛ekne i bogate? Czysta Energia 4/2012, str.: 30–31, ISSN 1642-126X J. Kici´nski, Do we have a chance for small-scale energy generation? The examples of technologies and devices for distributed energy systems in micro and small scale in Poland. Bullet. Polish Acad. Sci. 61(4) (2013) ˙ J. Kici´nski, G. Zywica, Prototype of the domestic CHP ORC energy system. Bullet. Polish Acad. Sci. 64(2) (2016)

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˙ 28. J. Kici´nski, G. Zywica, Steam Microturbines in Distributed Cogeneration. Springer, ISBN: 978–3–319–12017–1, 2014 29. A. Cenian, P. Lampart, K. Łapi´nski, J. Kici´nski, Ekoinnowacyjne technologie dla energetyki zrównowa˙zonej rozwijane w IMP PAN Gda´nsk. Cz˛es´c´ I, Przegl˛ad Energetyczny Nr 3, 2015, str.:36–39 30. J. Kici´nski, Przykłady Technologii i Urz˛adze´n Energetyki Rozproszonej (RE) bazuj˛acej na energii z biomasy i odpadach rolniczych (OZE), Nowa Energia nr 1/ 2014, str.:119–122, ISSN 1899-0886 31. A. Cenian, M. Górski, J. Kici´nski, Fotowoltaika, biogazownie, biomasa, Przemysł Zarz˛adzanie ´ Srodowisko, Sept–Oct 2011 32. J. Kici´nski, A. Cenian, K. Bogucka, IMP PAN stawia na innowacje w energetyce - odkrywamy potencjał biogazu, Nasz Gda´nsk nr 11, (112) 2010, str. 11–12 33. J. Kici´nski, P. Lampart, Mini-I Mikrosiłownie CHP ORC jako perspektywiczna forma wdra˙zania technologii OZE w Polsce. Energetyka Cieplna I Zawodowa 6, 39–43 (2009)

Chapter 5

Transformation in Poland. Scenarios. Controversies. Programs

Situation of Poland from the point of view of energy is specific. We have a national treasury in a form of coal, which is used and it provides us with energy security, but we have also a green coal in a form of biomass and other RES, that are used in a lesser than possible extend. According to many experts, the future belongs to renewable energy sources (RES) but we are still lacking good legislation and vision of Polish energy industry development [1, 2]. A lot of renewable energy sources, smart energy counters and smart houses—it is a vision which should be promoted by us in line with high-effective large-scale energy industry. Such vision seems to be obvious, especially in the context of energy policy of the EU, including Green Deal. As it turns out, as far as Poland is concerned, it is not so obvious.

5.1 Official Documents: Energy Policy of Poland Until 2040 (EPP2040), Energy Plus, Report of the Power Engineering Problems Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences Official government documents and even position of the most representative research community joined in the Power Engineering Problems Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences are much more careful and sustainable, as they must take specific characteristic of the country into account, especially a dominant position of coal. The Energy Policy of Poland until 2040—PEP2040 [3] project developed by the Ministry of Energy in 2018 is the most important document and scenario.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_5

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Fig. 5.1 Draft of the most important document concerning transformation in Poland. The Energy Policy of Poland, EPP 2040, developed by the Ministry of Energy in 2018. A scenario until 2040— Selected essential fragments and conclusions related to RES [3]

Fig. 5.2 Fragments from EPP 2040 document. The main conclusion related to RES mix: photovoltaic and off-shore wind farms

5.1 Official documents: Energy Policy of Poland …

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Table 5.1 A set of the main indicators assumed to be achieved by the EU and Poland on the horizon of 2030 taken from EPP2040 strategy EPP2040 counteracting climate change Strategic objectives

European council indicators for the Indicators EPP2040 entire EU

Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (since 1990)

by 40%

by 30%

Share of renewable sources in gross 32% final energy consumption

21%

Increase in energy efficiency

23%

by 32.5%

Figures 5.1 and 5.2 show the most important information from this document related to RES and Community Energy. Table 5.1 Fulfilment of the main indicators of climate protection according to EPP2020 document and the EU [3]. On nuclear energy, the EPP2040 strategy assumes: …starting the first block (with power of about 1–1.5 GW) of the first nuclear power plant on 2033 r. In subsequent years starting further five blocks of such type is planned (until 2043 r.). These dates result from power balance in the national power system. Without additional investments in new energy sources, this is when, there will be further losses in covering a growing power demand resulting from exploitation of an existing production units, especially the one that are based on coal. At the same time it allows for an expected limitation of global emission of air pollution (both CO2, and the others, e. g. NOX, SOX) from the energy sector… …Producing of the first energy unit in nuclear power plant in Poland requires the realization of series of actions. In the first place, it is necessary to develop a financing model for this investment, and then technology and general contractor of the project…

Coming back to the issue of RES, in addition to Figs. 5.1 and 5.2, supplementary information is presented in Fig. 5.3, which shows the government’s new initiatives, such as Energy Plus program. Figures 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 can make an impression of a brave government’s movement in direction of renewable energy. However, this impression is weakened by an important conclusion from the EPP2020 document: …In the perspective of the next few years, it is not possible to ensure the security of energy supplies in balance with dominant position of RES due to a too low level of development of these technologies and working flexibility of the power system.

It has to be stated that according to the concept of Polish government, coal will still remain the basic electric energy source with its share in energy mix in 2030 at the level of 60%. A report of the Power Engineering Problems Committee of PAN [4] published in 2018 is an important supplementary to the government documents—Fig. 5.4. It refers to the Polish energy industry until 2050.

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5 Transformation in Poland. Scenarios. Controversies. Programs

Fig. 5.3 The government’s initiative in a form of the Energy Plus program. Opening to the disseminated and proconsumer energy

Figure 5.4 shows fragments of a few important conclusions from this report. A report is a long-term scenario and it is easy to notice that general conclusions comply with the government’s prognosis. But taking into account scenarios of international organizations such as IRENA or IEA, we can observe their large discrepancy in relations to predictions of the Power Engineering Problems Committee of PAS. It is not a surprise that fast decarbonisation could be too expensive. Fragments from Chap. 8.4. Concerning the perspective until 2050 taken from the report of the Power Engineering Problems Committee [4] are worth mentioning: …At the discussion on prognosis for the period after 2035, it is appropriate to take into account the increase in the share of electricity in the final use of energy and development of energy storage technologies, as well as a required essential decrease of CO2 emissions The following (approximate) parameters of the Polish electricity production sector for 2050 are proposed: – generation of electric energy (electric energy gross consumption) – 261.5 TWh, – generation of district heat (district heat gross consumption) – 147.7 TWh, – electric power installed in electric and heating power plants – 81.5 GW,

5.1 Official documents: Energy Policy of Poland …

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Fig. 5.4 A report of the Power Engineering Problems Committee of PAN developed in 2018 and selected text fragments [4]

– fuel structure for electric energy generation: coal and lignite 33.1%, nuclear fuel 18.3%, natural gas 14.8%, wind energy 17.0%, biomass 7.9%, solar energy 7.8% and water energy 1.1%, – the share of electric energy generation in cogeneration – 27.7%, – the share of district heat generation in cogeneration - 75%. Costs of generation of an electric energy in disseminated sources, using renewable energy sources are high. Only an auction system with sale prices for electric energy guaranteed for 15 years may ensure the profitability and controlled development…

Attention is drawn to the large share of nuclear energy. Nuclear fuels take the second place after coal in the fuel structure for electric energy generation (coal 33.1%, nuclear fuels 18.3%). Let us recall that in the Committee’s opinion, development of Polish energy industry will unfortunately follow a HARD ROCK scenario (due to the dominant position of coal) if we adopt nomenclature of world development strategy from energy industry developed by the World Energy Council [5].

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5 Transformation in Poland. Scenarios. Controversies. Programs

As it results from the Government’s documents, in 2030 Poland assumes 21% share of RES in the final gross consumption of energy. Although it is less than the EU presumes—32% (Fig. 5.1), it is a progress in Polish conditions. The emphasis on the development of photovoltaics and off-shore wind farms is characteristic. (Fig. 5.2). From this point of view, Poland is to be the second power in Europe. The Energy Plus program is very ambitious; it assumes opening to proconsumer energy industry on an unprecedented scale—Fig. 5.3. A fundamental question, however, remains: are this all these announcements real? If so, when will they be fulfilled? From many statements in the internet portals, in the discussion panels of many conferences and congresses, it can be noticed that the investors who invested their funds in on-shore wind energy and suffered significant losses are worried. They think that one does not change the rules while the game is on. This experience can be a warning for those, who would like to invest in off-shore wind energy. Such threat cannot be fully excluded. Besides, quite common criticism towards the RES branch is that there is no sufficient support from the country and that provisions of law are amended too often. Stabilization of provisions of law related to RES and legislative security are the key issues here.

5.2 European Green Deal Versus Poland Additional controversies were raised by position of the Polish government during the Europarliament session in December 2019 on Green Deal. Poland required to create a Just Transition Fund and finally negotiated the exemption from the climate target for 2050—Figs. 5.5 and 5.6. Taking into account the specificity of Polish energy industry (a dominant position of coal) such position of the Polish government seems to be understandable, but some statements of the Minister of Energy on the environment connected with RES may raise objections—Fig. 5.6. The fact is that currently 3 of 5 coal blocks in the whole EU are built in Poland and that Poland registered the largest increase of CO2 emissions—Fig. 3.1. So, Poland will be heading to the climate neutrality at its own pace and with financial support of the EU.

5.3 Other Scenarios Other scenarios or opinions related to the development of Polish energy industry in the future are also worth mentioning.

5.3 Other Scenarios

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Fig. 5.5 In December 2019, the European Commission has taken a historic decision on the European Green Deal. Poland was exempted from reaching the goal of climate neutrality in 2050 as a result of a firm position of the government. This triggered numerous controversies both in the country, and abroad, Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Fig. 5.6 The position of the government of the Republic of Poland on energy transformation in Poland. Selected fragments of statements made by the Prime Minister and Minister of Energy from various internet portals. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Forum Energii in the portal www.forum-energii.eu published in September 2017 a report under the title: “Polish Energy Sector 2050 4 scenarios”. The authors of publication state that diversification of producing sources is a must and that market will simply force these changes. They developed 4 possible scenarios of the Polish energy industry development until 2050: • Coal scenario—based mainly on coal units. It envisages construction of new coal and lignite mines. The share of RES in 2050 amounts to 17%. • Diversified scenario with nuclear energy—implements a diversified mix of energy technologies, including nuclear energy in replacement of lignite power plants. The share of RES in 2050 amounts to 38%.

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• Diversified scenario without nuclear energy—is similar to the previous one but replaces production of energy in nuclear power plant by increased production of natural gas and RES, the share of which is 50%. • Renewable scenario—envisages phasing-out of coal energy. The share in production of energy from RES increases to 73%. These scenarios greatly differ from each other with respect to the level of CO2 emissions reduction (2050 in comparison to 2005). Coal scenario means reduction by 7%, diversified scenarios from 65 to 68%, and RES scenario by 84%. Renewable scenario allows reaching the EU reduction target if the policy of energy effectiveness be implemented at the same time. The interesting fact is that, according to the authors of the report, the differences between costs of these scenarios are not significant. The renewable scenario ensures the highest level of energy independence (only 30% fuel import), due to the use of local primary energy sources. In the coal scenario there is a risk of fast increase of fuel import. In 2050 from about 45 to 70% of coal necessary to produce electric energy may be imported. The coal scenario is the most risky, taking into account system costs, volatile costs of technologies, problems with covering national coal reserves and more restrictive environmental provisions. Although, the authors of the report do not strictly suggest which option they recommend, certain conclusions are obvious—renewable scenario seems to be the most optimal. Figure 5.7 shows potential of RES in perspective until 2050 according to the report of Forum Energii [www.forum-energii.eu]. Prof. J. Popczyk in his monograph [6] goes a long way further and with more courage in the direction of the use of Renewable Energy Sources. Yet, the author formulates:

Fig. 5.7 Potential of RES development in Poland on the horizon until 2050 according to the report of Forum Energii [www.forum-energii.eu]

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• the main thesis: … There is no risk of a shortage of fuel/energy for Poland. But the problem is to rebuild energy industry. This involves fundamental changes, i.e., restructuration of balance structure of fuel-energy and market of final fuel/energy in right direction. This goal may be reached by developing national regulations with respect to the existing EU legal order and new (EU) regulations, especially in the field of external costs and tax mechanisms…

• conditions: …Disseminated energy based on renewable energy sources will ensure in a natural and balanced way energy services in the whole country at the level corresponding to the needs…

• and barriers: …Barriers of development of the large-scale corporate energy industry do not mean that it will quickly lose its importance. It will be caused by mismatch of this energy industry to the features of a modern economy and society, which (slowly) transforms to the society of knowledge. In such context, barriers are connected with regulative/legal environment, in which the current energy industry is functioning and with the needs of a modern economy (and society), that are not resolved by current energy sector…

In another article referring to the Polish energy mix, Prof. J. Popczyk [7] in chapter Synthesis, i.e. prospects until 2050 envisages the following demand for energy in final markets in 2050. …1. Electric Energy – 180 TWh (industry – 60 TWh, people and services – 60 TWh, electric transport – 45 TWh, heating pumps – 15 TWh). It is underlined that in this market in the context of Road Map 2050, a strong “balance pressure” will take place. 2. Transport – 160 TWh – (without an electric one, only chemical energy in traditional transporting fuels). The consumption of oil fuels will decrease, in spite of the significant increase in the number of cars (with high probability, it will be lower in fact) by about 25% comparing to the consumption in 2010; the decrease of demand will take place because of an electric car. As a result, transport will have the share in CO2 emissions at the level of 30 million tons. 3. Heat – 70 TWh – (without the heat produced by heating pumps). It is underlined that in Polish energy mix 2050 there is a large surplus of production potential (market demand potential) in RES/DEA sources over such demand. This potential creates a competitive market of sources of the RES/DEA heat (solar collectors, boilers and stoves/fireplaces based on solid biomass) and the market of cogeneration biomass sources (bio-gassing, micro biogassing, ORC systems, Stirling engines, waste incinerators, and sewage plants). In relation to this it may be stated without detailed analysis, that for 40 years Polish heating can be non-emissive…

These predictions significantly differ from scenarios related to energy demand in 2050 developed by the Power Engineering Problems Committee of PAN [4]. Moreover, the Committee envisages the high share of nuclear power in the structure of energy production at the level of 18.3% (comparing to the coal share—33.1%). In the internet portal teraz-srodowisko.pl, the director of the Institute for Renewable Energy, Dr. Grzegorz Wi´sniewski, in the conversation with Marta Wojtkiewicz gave an interview on 6 April 2020—Renewable Energy in the fight with coal monopoly [8], from which the following excerpts are worth mentioning:

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5 Transformation in Poland. Scenarios. Controversies. Programs …It is also positive that thanks to the progress of technology, costs of production of energy from RES in the last decade have decreased dramatically. As far as photovoltaic are concerned, we can talk about tenfold decrease in relation to investment expenditure; wind energy production costs are two–three times lower due to the increase of productivity of unit power installed. „A silent revolution” took place here – wind turbines that are better adjusted to the Polish conditions, e.g., low wind speeds, have been built. These two technologies have become competitive to conventional energy production… …We need a new model of functioning of disseminated energy industry which is compatible with traditional energy industry. It does not adjust disseminated RES to the old system but – the opposite. Meanwhile, we have renaissance in traditional monopoly, which does not allow us to go forward… …Currently, we are dealing not with the ecology or climate crisis but with the energy and political one. The authority has lost its reliability in energy industry and because of chaotic and unstable policy the investment risk is higher…

5.4 Smog—Pressing Problem of Poland and Other Eastern European Countries The scale of the problem. In Poland there are about 13.4 million households. Majority of them (55.55) are in multi-family dwellings, and 44.5% single family houses. Currently, we have also about 5–6 million households burning coal and biomass for heating purposes and for utility water heating. In the majority of cases, they exploit low-effective and high-emissive boilers of old generation. The oldest ones are solidfuel stoves, the average age of which exceeds 24 years and boilers have in average 10 years. The share of boilers and stoves for solid fuels as a source of emissions in the pollution of the atmosphere in Poland is estimated to above 90%. Smog has its source in energy poverty: we burn everything what has the heating value. Figure 5.8 shows how tragic the situation in our country is. Figure 5.8 leaves no illusions what priorities in our energy policy for the nearest years should be assumed. It is however necessary to take into account that Fig. 5.8 was developed on the basis of data from 2012. Today these relations may be different, but certainly Poland has a very serious problem with smog. The main source of smog are household heating installations, i.e., stoves of old generation, where the fuel of lower quality or even various wastes are burned, are the main source of the smog. These stoves, the so-called soot-spewing stoves, are unfortunately popular in countrysides, but in cities as well—Fig. 5.9. A logical and only effective solution of smog problem is removal of “soot-spewing stoves”. It can be done by: • replacement of the old stoves to new ones of V generation that burn fuels of better quality. • connection of as many households as possible to city or commune heating systems

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Fig. 5.8 The annual average concentration of enzo(a)pyrene in 2012 in individual countries of the European Union. Source Global Compact Network Poland, Sustainable cities. Living in a healthy atmosphere. The air quality in Poland on the background of the European Union, Warsaw 2015

Fig. 5.9 The main sources of suspended particulates PM2.5 and PM10 emission and their annual average concentration on the country’s territory—data from 2015

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• implementation of technologies suitable for disseminated energy and community energy, including household cogeneration heating generators equipped with suitable filters. The most effective way to reach the goal is simultaneous implementation of all the above-mentioned paths. Smog elimination requires actions to be taken at the level of government, municipal authority and community. Only simultaneous implementation of many technologies and joint actions of many entities can lead to the success, e.g., elimination of smog—Fig. 5.10. The main legal and financial tool in Poland to fight with smog is the government’s “Clean air” program realized by the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management. The objective of programme is available under the following link: https://nfosigw.gov.pl/czyste-powietrze/obwiazujacy-program-czyste-pow ietrze-/ This program will be realized in the years 2018–2029. The programme’s budget amounts to PLN 103 billion: • in the form of non-refundable financial aid (subsidies): PLN 63.3 billion; • in a refundable form (loans): PLN 39.7 billion. The National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management has signed a settlement with the Polish Banks Association on preparing conditions of offering by products by Polish banks that enable financing of eligible costs for actions related to replacement of the old stoves and insulating homes by Polish banks within the frame of Clean Air program. The goal is to start a common credit action for anti-smog purposes on September 2019.

Fig. 5.10 The fight against smog requires coordinated actions of authorities and citizens with the use of various technologies. Synergy of actions and technologies leads to a success, Original drawing of the author of the monograph]

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“Clean Air” is a comprehensive program, the purpose of which is decreasing or avoiding of the emissions of particulate matter and other pollutions emitted to the atmosphere by single family houses. The program is focused on replacement of old stoves and solid-fuel boilers and the modernization of single family buildings for effective energy management. These actions can not only help to protect the natural environment and citizens’ health, but also bring financial savings in home budget. The program envisages co-financing, including but not limited to: • replacement of the old heating sources (stoves and solid-fuel boilers) and acquisition and installation of a new heating sources fulfilling the conditions of the Program, • isolation of building partitions, • renovation of door and window woodwork, • installation of renewable energy sources (solar collectors and photovoltaic installations) • installation of mechanical ventilation with heat recovery Non-governmental organization—Polish Smog Alert on internet portal terazsrodowisko.pl as of 30 April 2019 has criticised the “Clean Air” program: …Unfortunately, the government’s Clean Air program, which was to support the replacement of energy sources and thermal modernization of single-family houses, still does not function properly and needs a reform. Complicated procedures and inefficient service network for beneficiaries cause that people are waiting for months for the acceptance of their applications in voivodship’s funds for environmental protection, responsible for granting the subsidies … …the main condition of Clean Air program success is a close cooperation between communes and government. This is the communes, which are closer to beneficiaries than the National Fund for Environmental Protection, that should establish points of providing services for beneficiaries and encourage people to the replacement of soot-spewing stoves…

The UE also has referred to the government “Clean Air” program very critically. The EU did not want to finance the replacement of the old coal stoves to new ones, still based on coal. Besides, the form of central financing through the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management, i.e., the government agency was unacceptable. The following the EU critical comments are worth noticing (portal www.innpol and.pl as of 1 July 2019): …The programs form itself, which envisages replacement of the old coal stoves to the modern coal and boilers has become the first flashpoint. It was inconsistent with the UE provisions that assume that until 2050 no single house in the union could derive energy from fossil fuels. The way of transferring financial aid for „Clean Air” program for those, who are willing to replace stoves and for thermo-modernization of Polish citizens was the second barrier. Commission wanted the funds to be transferred through commercial banks and municipal authorities. The Polish government, however, wanted to leave all fund in hands of the National Fund for Environmental Protection…

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5 Transformation in Poland. Scenarios. Controversies. Programs …European Commission has decided not to grant further financial support to Poland for „Clean Air” program. The EU body has cancelled the meeting of Steering Committee responsible for government program and will not meet with the Polish government…

Probably under influence of this criticism, the Polish government has announced (internet portal wnp.pl as of 30 April 2020), that the “Clean Air” program is approaching a new phase: Proposed novelization is as follows: • The goal is to start a common credit action for anti-smog purposes since September 2020 • The Minister of Climate Michał Kurtyka, after taking the post in November 2019, commissioned a review of strategic programmes realized by the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management • On realizing this commencement, the National Fund for Environmental Protection and Water Management in the last months significantly simplified the “Clean Air” program’s formulas and principles of submitting applications for subsidies granted within the scope of this government program. Despite all crucial comments, the “Clean Air” Program remains the only serious mechanism in fight against smog in Poland. The second mechanism in fight against smog which is functioning in our country is municipal authorities’ anti-smog resolutions. Marshall Offices of individual voivodships are preparing such resolutions and soon 13 voivodships will have their own resolutions. Cracow can serve as a good example. In the capital of Małopolska there is a total ban for burning coal and wood. This is, however, not the end of actions, which aim at improvement of air quality, as until 2030 the city is to become a zero-carbon. 45 thousand of soot-spewing stoves have been removed and all actions taken will in consequence lead to reaching the goal of being zero-carbon city until 2030. (portal teraz-srodowisko.pl as of 28 August 2019). Pomorskie voivodeship which is working on its anti-smog resolution with the special status for Sopot city may serve as a second example. Sopot, with the status of health resort, is to be a zero-carbon city like Cracow (portal www.teraz-srodow isko.pl as of 11 December 2019). The above-mentioned activities of central authorities (Clean Air program) and municipal authorities (anti-smog resolutions) rise the hope that the smog problem in Poland will be resolved within the period of two decades or at least emissions will be significantly diminished. But solutions envisaged by actions of central or municipal authorities cannot be used everywhere. There are territories where the district heat cannot be provided, and the replacement of stoves or whole installations, not talking about thermoinsulation of the building, for many citizens can be simply too expensive, despite of the proposed financial support. A simple unwillingness of citizens to do such modernization cannot be excluded, as the understanding of common good is varied. Low power electrofilters installed on the old soot-spewing stoves that burn low quality solid fuel or on wood fireplaces can be a certain solution for such niche

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territories and in a transitional period. Such electrofilters demonstrate the efficiency above 90% as regards removal of the particulate matter—PM 2.5 and PM 10. The cheaper coal can be used in the old boiler with electrofilter and emission of pollution will be the same as for V class boilers! Obviously, DEA/RES disseminated energy technologies are the best solution, i.e., high-efficient and low-emissive boilers of V generation additionally equipped with electrofilters or, even better, with comprehensive household cogeneration generators, i.e., the boiler-microturbine-electrofilter that generates heat and electricity for own needs or to the network. The advantages of such solutions will be presented in the second part of this monograph. In order to fight against the smog more effectively, the educational and promotional activities in the society are necessary. The awareness of the citizens implementing new technologies and the belief that such activities are absolutely necessary are very important here. The initiative of the Polish Academy of Sciences that issued a special edition of ACADEMIA magazine with detailed analysis of smog sources and effects and organized a special research session of PAN General Assembly on smog issues is an example of educational activities—Fig. 5.11. One of the authors of this monograph participated in both of these events [9, 10]. The fight against smog is the fight with energy poverty of citizens, it is a joint effort of authorities and individual entities and it is also a necessity of simultaneous implementation of many technologies, Fig. 5.10.

Fig. 5.11 Special issue of the ACADEMIA magazine and the general assembly session of the Polish Academy of Sciences on the smog issues. The figure shows an evidence of participation of one of the authors (J. Kici´nski) of this monograph in both of these events [9, 10]

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5.5 Electromobility in Poland General aspects on electromobility or e-mobility in its wider sense have been presented in Sect. 4.1. It is worth to recall once more in this place an important fact that electromobility is not only an electric car but most of all: • planning, modelling and management of local energy systems with consideration of electric cars as a specific receivers/generators and energy storage warehouses • system of technical, organizational and legal solutions that enable development of greening transport We came here to an important conclusion that an electric car is only a part of energy management system in disseminated generation and that hybrid system, energy storage warehouses, synergy effects and of course an electric car constitute in fact a Smart Energy System, which is the system of the future. So, there is a strong connection between electromobility and power energy system. An electric car can be an element of large energy network storage warehouses. The energy surplus in accumulators can be sold to the network or used for own needs in a local micro-network. V2G (Vehicle to Grid) technology provides for such possibilities—a bidirectional energy transfer from and to the electric car—Sect. 4.1. In such technology in cooperation with the network, e-car can be treated as a large household, especially as a mobile energy storage warehouse. It is a beautiful vision of future. How real is it? It is possible today to specify the effects of electromobility development for power energy system? No, the answer is negative due to the fact that: • There are no models defining the functioning of electric cars in the network – Will an electric car replace a traditional car in one-to-one ratio—probably it will not. • There is no description of conditions and possibilities of charging system development – When will the client be able or obliged to charge the car? – Will the so-called fast charges be available, and how many of them? – How the users will behave? • There is no concept of power energy development which takes e-mobility into account at a large scale We are faced with new challenges: how to stabilize the network? The experiment of “artificial” blackout in Locham city in Holland, during which only a few charging stations were connected to the local network at the same time, is a very impressive example here. The role of network modeling and steering of its profile is becoming crucial as regards the development of electromobility at a larger scale.

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As far as Poland is concerned, one of the basic actually binding documents of the country’s policy is the Strategy for Responsible Development (SOR) [11]. One of the flagship projects of this strategy is the Electromobility Development Program [12] The main goals of the Program are as follows (Figs. 5.12 and 5.13): 1. 2. 3.

Creating conditions for electromobility development of the Polish people by providing charging infrastructure and encouraging to buy electric cars. Development of electromobility industry. Stabilization of power energy system by integration of cars with the network. Certain ambitious assumptions of this program are worth mentioning here:

• 2020—50 thousand electric cars, • 2025—1 million electric cars on the roads It is already evident that the specific objective for 2025—one million electric cars on the roads in Poland—should be estimated as practically beyond the reach, and information arises that it is necessary to change the above target by the government. In Publication of the European Financial Congress [13], a report by Jerzy Gajewski, Wojciech Paprocki and Jana Pieriegud, titled “Electromobility in Poland on the background of the European and global trends” has been released, in which we can read:

Fig. 5.12 Inaguration of government program “Electromobility Development”. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sourcess

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Fig. 5.13 Planned stages of the government program “Electromobility Development”. Source Presentation of the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Development

…electric car market in Poland still accounts for a very small proportion of the whole market. According to various data, the sale of electric cars only with battery drive, i.e., BEV. ( Battery Electric Vehicle) category in 2008 amounted in Poland to 620. The number of electric cars registered in Poland is the lowest in the whole EU. For example, in Norway –on the largest European zero-carbon cars market in Europe – 46 thousand BEV cars were sold in 2018. Also in other countries (Germany, France, Holand) that are the main sales markets of BEV cars in the EU, the volume of cars sales amounted to a few thousand of items in each of these counties…

The objectives of the government “Electromobility Development” program in detailed elaboration “Electromobility Development Plan in Poland” require an immediate actualization. One of the authors of this monograph has made a presentation at the meeting of the Parliamentary Mining and Energy Group on 26/10/2017, titled: “Electromobility, research potential, basic issues, another look”, in which all these difficulties of the Polish electromobility on government program issues, have been signalized. We need to mention and appreciate the early and next previously planned stages of this ambitious program, notwithstanding how it will be realized in the future— Figs. 5.13, 5.14 and 5.15, and the first designs of Polish electric cars—Fig. 5.16. The establishment of the Polish Electromobility Program (EMP) and setting up of Electric Taxi company with the first fleet of about 20 taxis on the territory of Warsaw was an interesting event. The program was developed in cooperation of IMP PAN with NISSAN and PPEM employees. The official signing of the agreement took place in the Research Center of PAN in Jabłonna (IMP PAN branch office) with participation of the Minister M. Kurtyka—Fig. 5.15.

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Fig. 5.14 Setting up of ElectroMobility Poland SA company, among others, for the purposes connected with realization of “Electromobility Development” program. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Fig. 5.15 Signing an agreement on EMP Program establishment and Electric Taxi company setting up with the first fleet of several dozens of taxis on the territory of Warsaw

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Fig. 5.16 HERON Electric car design, which was developed within the scope of EMP Program. Car presentation in its exhibition version at GRE conference 2018. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Within EMP Program a concept and exhibition version of HERON Electric car was developed. So far, none of studio versions of cars presented in Fig. 5.16 has got its commercial version. The Polish electromobility is facing great challenges.

5.6 Polish Hydrogen Strategy Certain general aspects connected with hydrogen as a fuel of the future have been presented in Sects. 4.2 and 4.3.3. Coming back to the Poland’s issues, we have to start from the position and actions of the Polish government with this respect. The Ministry of Climate is preparing the Polish Hydrogen Strategy, which, among others, is to facilitate gaining the EU funds for modern technological solutions—informed Ireneusz Zyska, the Vice-Minister of Climate and the Government Plenipotentiary for Renewable Energy Sources—portal wnp.pl as of 20 February 2020 [https://www.wnp.pl/wiadomosci/373639.html]. The Vice-Minister informed that hydrogen in Polish economy will be used in road and rail transport, industry and as an energy storage warehouse.

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The Vice-Minister I. Zyska underlined that Poland intends to produce cgreen” hydrogen from renewable energy sources. “We have great chances for it”—he assessed. “In hydrogen strategy it must be also shown, in which branches the hydrogen will be used, who will be the receiver of this fuel”—he stated. The Vice-Minister recalled that currently hydrogen is produced mainly in the Upper Silesia. “In the future we would like to produce hydrogen on off-shore wind farms”—he added. The so-called “green hydrogen” from RES and electrolysis and blue hydrogen from gas come into play—see: Sect. 4.3.3. Obtaining hydrogen from gas without CO2 emissions, e.g., by CCS technology and transporting by gaspipes such as Nord Stream 2 seems to be faster, but the use of electrolysis with support of RES is a more sustainable and perspectivic solution. It means that the above-mentioned Nord Stream 2 may allow Russia to replace the dependence of Europe on Russian gas to the dependence on Russian hydrogen. Poland in the nearest future can use blue hydrogen and transfer it through new gaspipes, such as Baltic Pipe, for example from Norway, which is interested in gaining this fuel from the gas without carbon dioxide with the use of CCS technology. It would be the replacement of dependance on imported gas to the dependence on the imported hydrogen but, at least from safer source. According to current trends, estimates that since 2040 electrolysis will be the cheapest way of zero-emissive hydrogen production are reasonable. Hydrogen strategy is thus a step in right direction. Hydrogen enables also to resolve the problem of energy storage. Profitable storage of energy in hydrogen cells combined with renewable sources, for example, at the Polish Baltic sea with the use of off-shore installations, is a fulfilment of expectations of green energy transformation proponents. Poland has one of the best accesses to natural hydrogen warehouses in the form of salt caves. With a good hydrogen strategy, we have potential to develop warehouses at the lowest cost in Europe. Technology of obtaining hydrogen is also called Power-to-Gas (P2G). It is easy to notice that it is a part of the wider process, frequently defined as Power-to-X— see: Sect 4.4. Nothwithstanding the terminology, these technologies are the future of energy transformation. In JRC Science Hub publications a final report of CEN—CENELEC Hydrogen Group, Sector Forum Energy Management/Working Group Hydrogen, Final Report can be found [14]; it contains comprehensive studies and widely discussed various aspects of producing and implementation of hydrogen as fuel of the future. In turn, on the official website of the European Union ec.europa.eu there is an information on establishing international group of experts—Hydrogen Energy Network (HyENet) [15]. It is an informal group of experts, comprised of representatives of ministries responsible for energy policy in the EU Member States, the purpose of which is to support national authorities responsible for energy policy in developing the possibilities obtained from hydrogen as an energy carrier. HyENet will be functioning as an

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informal platform for exchange of information, good practices, experiences and the newest achievements, and for joint work over individual issues. A beautiful vision of ecosystem consisting of hydrogen and fuel cells has been presented on the website www.hydrogeneurope.eu—[16]. It is necessary to mention the newest publication of Tadeusz Chmielniak and Tomasz Chmielniak in the Polish market, titled: Wind Energy Industry, PWN, 2020, in which the authors states that—Fig. 5.17: …Development of hydrogen technologies and global sustainable energy system that uses hydrogen, the so-called hydrogen economy (energy industry) provides for a real possiblity to resolve three main challenges of the world energy industry. Those are: (i) the neccessity to satisfy the increasing need for clean gas and liquid fuels, and electrical energy, (ii) the necessity of increasing the efficiency of fuel and energy production, and (iii) the minimization of emitting pollutions to the atmosphere, including emission of greenhouse gases at the final state of energy consumption…

To sum up in some way the issues included in this subsection, it can be said that the next century will be for our civilization the age of sun and hydrogen; in other words, it will be the effect of yellow-blue transformation (if we agree that yellow means sun and blue—means hydrogen) (Figs. 5.18 and 5.19). And this, in turn, would be the answer to the question: Quo Vadis Energetics? Could it be possible that the humanity has finally found a Holy Grail of energy industry?

Fig. 5.17 The newest publication in the Polish publishing market on hydrogen energy industry

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Fig. 5.18 Is the yellow-blue transformation based on sun and hydrogen a Holy Grail for energy industry and for our civilization? Original drawing of the author of the monograph

Fig. 5.19 An important message of this chapter

5.7 Controversies—Dilemmas The Holy Grail of energy industry, yellow-blue transformation, a new civilization— these are beautiful and noble words. The words that express our wishes, hope and desires. But before we drink something from the cup the Holy Grail and achieve the goal, we need to resolve series of difficulties and dilemmas on the way. It concerns also Poland and Polish transformation. In the literature, on internet portals and at conferences we can meet many various, often contradictory opinions or even harsh controversies. In national conditions, mainly coal and the energy industry based on it are the subject of polemics, disputes and difficult negotiations. We will provide a few examples of such discussions: According to Forum Energii (Energy transformation in Poland, Forum Energii, https://forum-energii.eu/pl/analizy/transformacja-2019): …there is an ongoing import of gas, coal and electric energy. We are noticing a growing importance of the gas in energy mix and RES development stagnation. It indicates an increase of greenhouse emissions. Unfortunately, changes in Polish energy industry are not the result

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5 Transformation in Poland. Scenarios. Controversies. Programs of long-term strategy. The old energy model is exhausted – we need a brave leader, that will create a new vision of energy industry in Poland…

According to Jerzy Buzek, MEP (statement at the European Economic Congress Trends, Warsaw, 25.02.2020): …We cut ourselves from Russian gas to be independent, but we depend on Russian coal. It is nonsense... We do not have a choice, we need to cut ourselves from coal, notwithstanding there is a Green Deal or not and is someone afraid of climate changes or not…

´ Portal teraz-srodowisko.pl as of 28 April published an article of A. Sniegocki, titled: “We observe a decline of the coal energy industry in Poland”, in which he states: …Economically justified coal and lignite extraction in Poland comes to the end. Profitability of the coal energy industry is decreasing… The growth of working costs in mines is higher than the increase of coal market value. There is no possibility to improve efficiency in existing mines; at the same time, we notice a common unwillingness of the society for opening new mines. It means that there is less and less working places in mining industry. Currently, more than 80 thousand of people are working in lignite mining sector, who will be forced to retrain or to take an early retirement…

On portal wnp.pl as of 8 April, Prof. Szablewski, the economist from the Institute of Economic Sciences of PAN writes: …Public funds that are currently spent on maintaining pro-coal structure of the Polish Energy Industry could be used for transformation of sector in the direction to new technologies and renewable sources.

On the same portal wnp.pl as of 11 April 2020, Herbert Gabry´s, an independent expert, former Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of Industry and Trade states: …coal is receding but it will remain alive for a long time. Even in thirties and fourties, we will have a significant share of coal in the electric energy production. This is the energy of our past and new investments. Renewable source energy, including disseminated energy will not change this. There is no reasonable alternative of security for development of RES in relation to their unsustainable work…

Marcin Roszkowski, the economist, President of the Jagiellonian Institute wrote on portal wnp.pl as of 10 April 2002 as follows: …coal spoils energy industry. Some of mines will be probably closed. We do not have problems in our national extractive sector, except for lignite mining. There are no significant problems with miners of copper, silver, gas or even coal. We simply cannot extract coal in a cheap and competitive way…

An exchange of opinions between Prof. A. Szablewski from PAN and Prof. W. Mielczarski from Łód´z Technical University published on the portal wnp.pl can serve as an example of polemics on the role of coal and the future of the energy industry in Poland (https://www.wnp.pl/wiadomosci/380363.html):

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…Prof. Andrzej Szablewski from the Institute of Economic Sciences of PAN answered to the text published on portal WNP.PL, in which Prof. Władysław Mielczarski from Łód´z Technical University indicated that until 2040 blocks that were built before 2000, should be stopped – Until this time we need 14 coal blocks of 900 MW class – Prof. Władysław Mielczarski indicated. Prof. Andrzej Szablewski do not agree with that… …Prof. A. Szablewski: there are tendencies of gradual move away from centralized structure of this sector for the benefit of a growing role of disseminated sources of production. The latter in some countries are the basis of the more and more visible development of local electric energy market with their growing level of independence from large-scale energy industry…

There are hundreds or even a thousand of such opinions. All of them are focused on the role of coal and proportions between centralized and large-scale energy industry and disseminated one.

References 1. Jaka b˛edzie energia przyszło´sci? Exxon Mobil podał prognozy na 2040 rok. www.gazetapra wna.pl/ 2. IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency, Transforming the Energy System—and Holding the Line on the Rise of Global Temperatures (2019). ISBN 978-92-9260-149-2. www. irena.org/publications 3. PEP2040, do pobrania ze strony Ministerstwa Aktywów Pa´nstwowych. https://www.gov. pl/web/aktywa-panstwowe/polityka-energetyczna-polski-do-2040-r-zapraszamy-do-konsul tacji1 4. Raport Komitetu Problemów Energetyki PAN - do pobrania pod linkiem. https://www. kproblen.pan.pl/images/stories/pliki/pdf/2019_monografia/Polska_Energetyka_w_Horyzo ncie_2050.pdf 5. World Energy Counsil, World Energy Scenarios. The grand transition. World Energy Counsil (WEC), London 2016 6. J. Popczyk, ENERGETYKA ROZPROSZONA od dominacji energetyki w gospodarce do zrównowa˙zonego rozwoju, od paliw kopalnych do energii odnawialnej i efektywno´sci energetycznej, Wydawca Polski Klub Ekologiczny Okr˛eg Mazowiecki, Warszawa 2011, ISBN: 978-83-915094-1-8, do pobrania na portalu CIRE. https://www.cire.pl/pliki/2/e_rozpr_popc zyk.pdf 7. J. Popczyk, Polski miks energetyczny 2050 cz.III”, Magazyn Energetyka Cieplna i Zawodowa, nr 3/2012, przedruk na portalu. www.kierunekenergetyka.pl 8. G. Wi´sniewski, Energetyka odnawialna w walce z monopolem w˛eglowym, interview in ´ Teraz Srodowisko. https://www.teraz-srodowisko.pl/aktualnosci/Energetyka-odnawialna-mon opol-weglowy-wywiad-Grzegorz-Wisniewski-IEO-8443.html#xtor=EPR-1 9. J. Kici´nski, Przejrzysto´sc´ przyszło´sci – Czy mo˙zna wygra´c walk˛e ze smogiem? I jak mog˛a w tym pomóc nowe technologie, Academia, wydanie specjalne 2/5/2018 10. J. Kici´nski, Walka o czyste powietrze, Walka ze smogiem, Czy przegrana ?, prezentacja na 136 Sesj˛e Zgromadzenia Ogólnego PAN, Warszawa 21 czerwca 2018 r 11. SOR—Strategia na rzecz odpowiedzialnego rozwoju do roku 2020 (z perspektyw˛a do 2030, Dokument przyj˛ety uchwał˛a Rady Ministrów w dniu 14 lutego 2017 r., Warszawa 2017 12. Program Rozwoju Elektromobilno´sci. https://www.gov.pl/web/aktywa-panstwowe/elektromo bilnosc-w-polsce 13. Publikacja Europejskiego Kongresu Finansowego. https://www.efcongress.com/wp-content/ uploads/2020/02/publikacje09__Elektromobilno´sc´ -w-Polsce-na-tle-tendencji-europejskich-iglobalnych.pdf

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14. JRC Science Hub. https://ec.europa.eu/jrcdopobrania, https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ repository/bitstream/JRC99525/sfem%20wg%20hydrogen_final%20report%20%28online% 29.pdf 15. Hydrogen Energy Network (HyENet). https://ec.europa.eu/energy/topics/technology-and-inn ovation/energy-storage/hydrogen_en 16. Hydrogeneurope.eu. https://hydrogeneurope.eu/index.php/

Chapter 6

Which Energy Mix for Poland and for Other Countries of the World Based on Coal Energy?

Let us return to the most important issue related to transformation. In relation to such controversies and dilemmas the question arises: which energy mix for Poland? Which decision on this matter politicians and business should take? At the beginning, it is necessary to specify clearly whether we are talking about the most probable mix, which may really take place in the nearest few decades in Poland or about the mix, which is demanded from various points of view. The analysis of various types of scenarios and opinions in previous chapters has revealed how much they differ depending on which organization or experts have developed them. Discussions on mix which is the most probable for Poland, e.g. for the nearest two decades should be based on a few presumptions: • national features, especially including the role of coal and political conditions related to this. This fact cannot be simply excluded, contrary to suggestions of some experts and scientists. Obviously, this fact cannot be excluded by politicians. • scenarios developed by the government supported on essential elements by scientists from the Power Engineering Problems Committee of PAN are by nature at advantage compared to other scenarios, e.g., of international organization or independent experts, due to the fact that the government has the so-called driving force. Besides, many of these opinions are related to the general situation on the world or in Europe, and not to Poland specifically. • long-term scenarios going beyond the horizon of 2050 may have substantial errors and it may be treated as a certain suggestion only, not as reliable data. It may be thus assumed with high probability that coal and gas, i.e., fossil fuels will remain the main source of electric energy in Poland for the nearest two decades. Only proportions will be changed: in 2040 a much higher share of the so-called non-emissive sources, i.e., photovoltaics, off-shore wind energy and nuclear energy is estimated.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_6

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Fig. 6.1 Probable power energy mix for Poland in perspective until 2040. Fossil fuels will remain the main source of electric energy production, although their relative share will decrease from 80 to 60%. Two systems will synergically coexist: conventional emissive and non-emissive source of electric energy production, although their relative share will decrease from 80 to 60%. Two systems will synergically coexist: conventional emissive and non-emissive [Original drawing of the author of the monograph]

Let us pay attention to the fact that the relative share of fossil fuels in electricity production in 2020 amounts to about 80% and in 2040 only 60%. This share in absolute values practically remains at the same level. Hence, our power energy system we will be composed of the two systems: emissive system at the level of about 50 GW of conventional power in 2020 and the system of similar values of zero-carbon power in 2040 (photovoltaics, biomass and biogas— about 20 GW, off-shore—8–10 GW and nuclear energy—6–9 GW). Figure 6.1 shows probable version of power system mix for Poland on the horizon until 2040 divided into two systems: emissive and non-emissive. It is worth noticing that almost the whole increase of electric energy production in the next two decades, so an increase from the level of about 40 GW (conventional power installed) to the level of about 76 GW in 2040 is based on non-emissive power energy system. This means that for 20 years the government is planning to build a second alternative non-emissive system with power comparable to the conventional power installed today. In our power electric energy mix two systems will be functioning in a synergy way. How to reach it? Plans of building of nuclear power plants are the most controversial. The planned power 6–9 GW is strongly questioned by many experts. It is

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not the matter of ecologists’ protests and social acceptance related to potential threat of disaster and contamination, but simply the matter of investment costs, especially finding of contractor and optimal credit line. After all, such great investments cannot be financed from the state budget. We do not belong to the richest countries of the world, thus there are many opinions on total resignation from construction of a nuclear power plant. For these funds we can construct a few highly efficient conventional power plants ensuring in addition much more working places for Polish specialists and workers. The discussion on this issue is still ongoing, but there are no specific binding decisions. As far as the rest of non-emissive system elements is concerned, especially photovoltaics, biogas, biomass and off-shore wind, their use at a high scale requires introducing breakthrough solutions on local energy industry level. This local level may be comprised of energy clusters or commune energy centres, simply elements of Community Energy Industry based on Disseminated Energy Appliances and RES, i.e., DEA/RES—Figs. 4.18 and 4.19. The DEA/RES installations many be commonly constructed by citizens or communes with legal and financial state support, creating de facto the system of small and disseminated power plants. However, the condition of an appropriate development of IT technologies adjusted to the needs of disseminated energy must be fulfilled. Cloud Computing technology combined with Blockchain technology is especially promising here— Fig. 4.1. The second condition that must be fulfilled is the development of heat and electric energy storage warehouses that stabilize the network. In further perspective, it will be probably hydrogen warehouses—Fig. 4.8. The most urgent actions in the framework of the energy mix so defined may be shown as in Fig. 6.2, and its main characteristics in a few words are presented in Fig. 6.3. To sum up the discussion presented in this chapter concerning Poland’s power energy mix in the next two decades, it should be noted that it quite significantly differs from scenarios given by international agencies, e.g., IRENA, IEA, or by many experts and scientists. It also differs from assumptions provided in the European Green Deal. These scenarios rely on renewable energy and climate protection with more courage, making thesis that a sustainable, climate-related development with fulfilment of certain conditions is possible and useful. Poland, as we know, negotiated in the EU its own way to reach climate neutrality and the mix shown in Figs. 6.1, 6.2 and 6.3 is its consequence. Talking about energy mix for Poland, it is absolutely necessary to refer to the costs of transformation. The structure of electric energy production in Poland is specific. As much as 77% of energy is produced from coal and lignite. Only 7% go from natural gas and 13% from renewable energy sources. At the same time, only 58% of the territory of our country is gasified. That is why coal stoves, more often of the old generation, the so-called soot-spewing stoves, are a dominant source of energy. This, in turn, is the

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Fig. 6.2 The most urgent actions in fulfilment of probable version of power energy mix in the horizon until 2040. Legend: CCT—Clean Coal Technologies. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

Fig. 6.3 Polish transformation/power energy mix of 2040 in a few words

reason of high air pollution level—as much as 33 of 55 cities in Europe with the highest air pollution are situated in Poland. European Commission estimates that Poland will spend for energy transformation as much as 240 billion euro. The Polish government tries to get investment of Just Transition Fund (JTF) in mitigating effects of transformation and its processing. …If we would like to bear all transformation costs until 2050, it will require engagement as much as 8 billion euro annually in average. This is the amount exceeding funds from Just Transition Fund for all EU Member States for the next financial perspective –the minister Małgorzata Jarosi´nska-Jedynak said in the interview for portal teraz-srodowisko.pl as of 9 March 2020.

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6.1 The Role of Gas in Energy Mix Due to the fact that gas fuel does not fall into category of renewable sources, it is called a transition fuel on the way to a full energy transformation. The European Commission underlines that transformation towards climate neutrality will be widely based on renewable energy sources and technologies, and the role of a natural gas is important exactly as transition fuel. Let us start from the statement of Frans Timmermans, the vice-president of EC on the role of gas in transformation and climate neutrality—see: portal Polska Platforma LNG as of 29 May 2020. https://pplng.pl/aktualnosci/2020/05/29/. We can read here: …natural gas will play a certain role in transformation of the European Union towards climate neutrality …….. I think it is important to look at an existing LNG infrastructure to realize in which extend we can use it for hydrogen, somehow adjust it to the use of hydrogen. (…) Natural gas for some time will continue to play the role of transition fuel…

The demand for gas is still increasing. In 2018 the share of natural gas in the world mix amounted to 24%. According to prognosis of the International Energy Agency, until 2040 the worldwide demand for natural gas will amount to almost 40%. The demand for gas will increase more rapidly than the demand for oil, whch is reflected on a continuous trend of clean energy sources promotion. For sure, the natural gas is becoming a transition fuel which will strengthen its role in coal displacing. Also in Poland, the energy transformation towards clean energy sources will result in the increase of the gas consumption. Piotr Naimski, Secretary of State of the Prime Minister’s Office and Government Plenipotentiary for Strategic Energy Infrastructure in the interview for Rzeczpospolita has stated that: …gas sources will be a significant supplementation of the system – providing protection of wind or photovoltaic sources. That is why, next to them, new gas energy blocks are to be constructed, e.g., two in Dolna Odra power plant, 700 MW each. Gaz-System is working on connection of a gas source to this power plant. Probably one or two more blocks will be constructed. So, there will be more gas in the mix; it will play a stabilizing and regulative role...

On portal wprost.pl https://www.wprost.pl/ we can find an opinion: …The authors of the report „In direction of the energy for the future. Innovations in gas, fuel and energy sector” developed in cooperation of experts from PGNiG and PwC Advisory, estimate that according to the assumptions of the project of the Polish Energy Policy until 2040, the share of natural gas in national energy mix will increase to 16 percent, and in 2030 the demand for “blue fuel” in Poland will increase by about 30 percent comparing to the demand on 2015…

In the Polish government’s opinion gasification of the country is a way to decrease harmful emissions to the atmosphere. Because of the issues of energy security, absence of the nuclear energy and limited gas infrastructure, Małgorzata Jarosi´nska-Jedynak, Deputy Minister of Funds and

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Regional Policy has paid attention to the necessity of financing gas projects, that would allow to reduce harmful emissions in the most effective and rapid way—as a transition solution for full achievement of climate goals. • portal teraz-srodowisko.pl as of 5 February 2020. A high rapid increase on gas market will also result in investments that ensure gaining new clients. The Baltic Pipe project is of strategic meaning, of course. Its goal is to create a new way of supply for natural gas from Norway to Danish and Polish markets and to final users in neighbouring countries. Gas pipe will be able to transport 10 billion m3 of natural gas annually to Poland and 3 billion m3 of it from Poland to Denmark. Commencement of construction work phase is planned for 2020, which allows us to import a natural gas from new deposits on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary prepared a non-paper document, in which they convince that gas, from their point of view, will be necessary for the achievement of climate neutrality in the European Union in 2050—see: portal biznesalert.pl https://biznesalert.pl/polska-koa licja It means that Poland has entered into coalition with these counties in defence of the role of gas in the EU climate policy. The countries which authored the non-paper document state that the natural gas can be a significant security and source of sustainable development of Renewable Energy Sources and power energy system. It allows adding a new wind and solar power replacing ineffective production and coal and oil in the structure of fuel of individual member countries.

6.2 “My Energy” Program The role of government’s “My energy” program is also worth mentioning. Information on this program is available under link: [https://mojprad.gov.pl/informacje-szc zegółowe-o-programie-mój-pr˛ad/]. The Program is a tool designed for support of proconsumer energy development, i.e., a support of photovoltaic installations (PV) sector. Beneficiaries can be natural persons producing electric energy for their own needs, who signed comprehensive contracts that regulate issues related to implementation of an electric energy produced in microinstallation to the network. It is also important that the entities which provide services of photovoltaic system installation for natural persons can sign an agreement with NFEP&WM which regulates cooperation issues on fulfilment of My Energy Program. My Energy is a program of subsidies up to PLN 5 thousand for acquisition and installation of photovoltaic installation with power of 2–10 kW. It has started at the end of August and at the beginning of September 2019 and has generated unexpectedly positive results in the development of photovoltaics in Poland—Fig. 6.4

6.2 “My Energy” Program

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Fig. 6.4 A great success of “My Energy” Program. The increase of power installed of photovoltaic microinstallations comparing to 2019 amounts to more than 180%

If the Polish Hydrogen Strategy was advanced at a more significant level, one can imagine that it would be the best option of non-emissive energy with perspective for the next two decades, i.e., an option based on Power-to-Gas technology. It means that most of the whole energy from large off-shore wind farms, large on-shore installations and pV installations would power electrolysers of high-power, and they in turn, by producing hydrogen (clearly speaking, the ehydrogen) would ensure storage of produced energy and its further sustainable use both in local off-grid and in large-scale on-grid systems—Fig. 6.5. As we have already mentioned in another chapter (chapter 4.4) Power–to–Gas technologies or wider Power–to–X technologies are the most perspective directions of non-emissive energy development in Europe and all over the world. Poland, with high off-shore and on-shore potential, and with rapid development of photovoltaics may play a significant role in development of these technologies.

Fig. 6.5 Within the scope of development of non-emissive energy, e-hydrogen and power-to-gas technology based mainly on off-shore wind farms can be the chance for Poland

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6.3 Closed Circuit Economy A closed circuit economy (CCE), also known as circular economy is a rather new direction of actions, the purpose of which is transformation of previous linear model of economy, which has a negative impact on environment, to a closed circuit model. CCE strategy consists in maintaining once received reserves in the circuit as long as possible and minimizing waste production by actions taken at each stage of product life cycle. The essence of CCE is explained in one of slides from the presentation of Andrzej Kassenberg at conference “CCE in cities”—Fig. 6.6. The EU Commissioner for the Environment, Oceans and Fisheries, Virginijus Sinkeviczius has expressed the following opinion—see: portal wnp.pl as of 08 June 2020 https://www.wnp.pl/energetyka/unijny-komisarz …We can eliminate almost half of greenhouse gases emissions by implementation of closed circuit strategy in such items as: plastics, cement, steel and aluminium…it can lead to the reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU by almost 300 million tons a year until 2050. Sinkeviczius also calculated that “economy in closed circuit can increase the UE GNP by 0.5 percent and the employment rate in the EU by 0.3 percent…”

In March 2020, the EC has published the new EU Circular Economy Action Plan, which concerns the economy in closed circuit for the benefit of clean and more competitive Europe, which can provide current recommendations for actions in this matter. The European Union’s interest in the issue of CCE was the reason of actions for the benefit of CCE also in Poland. Certain initiatives that correspond to CCE

Fig. 6.6 The essence of the closed circuit economy (CCE)

6.3 Closed Circuit Economy

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principles for reduction of the reserves use and limitation of waste producing and storage were taken by the European Union already in 2015, before the adoption of “Closed circuit…” plan. In publication [1] one can find a certain history of legislation on CCE issues in Europe and in Poland. In December 2016 “A road map of transformation towards circular economy” has been published. A map is a proposal of actions in the main four fields, such as [1]: • sustainable industrial production as regards industrial wastes, wider responsibility of producer and environmental footprint • sustainable consumption as regards municipal wastes, waste of food and education, • bioeconomy as regards transformation of bioresources, most of all in agriculture, energy and industry; • new business models as regards developing of new solutions and concepts. From the point of view of energy transformation and national energy mix, the issue of CO2 emissions reduction and the increase of energy efficiency are most essential. CCE is thus a key issue not only for the conversion of energy, but also for the quality of human life and it must be taken into account in developing any energy scenarios.1

Reference 1. T.J. Jaworski, S. Grochowska, Circular economy—the criteria for achieving and the prospect of implementation in Poland. Arch. Waste Manage. Environ. Prot. 19(4) (2017)

1

Note added in proof: We also want to draw attention to the recent issue of “ACADEMIA - the magazine of the Polish Academy of Sciences”, which is fully devoted to energy transformation. One of the leading articles is written by Jan Kici´nski (Transformacja, ale jaka? Academia 1/65/2021, pp. 08–11).

Part II

Human Impact on Progressive Climate Change, New Trends in Social Behaviour in the Fight Against Climate Change

Chapter 7

Afterthoughts and Conclusions

This chapter is devoted to human issues, which are undoubtedly one of the main factors responsible for all changes taking place in the world around us. The authors will try to indicate several possible paths for humankind, which, if correctly implemented as a part of our everyday life, can quickly and effectively bring results related to the fight against climate change. Before we start, however, it is also good to consider the answer to an important question. Why, despite the concrete evidence and the technological solutions at our fingertips, it is so hard for us as humans to get out of the current climatic, geo-political and geo-economic situation? A reader who carefully studied the first part of this book regarding climate change may have already formed an opinion on the subject. The authors want each reader to independently develop their views on topics related to climate change and how to counteract this phenomenon. The authors intended to create a collection of essential information and the authors’ own experiences regarding climate change and ways to prevent this phenomenon from happening. Each reader should independently, based on the information presented here, form an opinion on the topics discussed in this book. As a modern society living in the information age (characterised by ubiquitous media and the Internet), we are bombarded every day with hundreds of messages on various aspects of our lives. Unfortunately, often the information reaching us is coloured with an additional message. We notice that an increasing part of society does not analyse or filter the information received, but accepts it as fact and truth. This approach makes it easier to manipulate people and convince them to believe in views and ‘truths’ that are convenient for a specific social group. The authors want this book to make it easier for readers to develop their own opinion based on the information contained within. In this chapter, the authors will try to familiarize the reader with several trends and problems regarding the use of natural resources and the approach to their rational management by humanity. We are the first generation in history to have experienced several fuel/energy crises during their lives. Oil and other energy resources have been the leading cause © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_7

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of economic and armed conflicts for many years. At this point it is worth mentioning, as examples, the oil crisis of the 1970s or the armed conflict of the early 1990s, both of the Persian Gulf. Each of these events brought a wave of social and economic changes. These events from the last 50 years clearly show that fossil fuels are often a flashpoint to conflicts in the international arena. Also, the recent incidents taking place in the Baltic Sea basin and surrounding the second line of the gas pipeline connecting Russia with Germany, Nord Stream II can serve as evidence to the truth of that statement. This topic is very emotive, not only on the Polish side but also within other European Union countries and the United States. All of this makes the topic highly absorbing; however, it seems absurd to be so reliant on these materials in the era of green energy transformation which allows people to become independent from fossil fuels. This topic and the authors’ views on it will be talked about in more depth in the following chapter. Environmentalists, politicians and entrepreneurs unanimously call for changes in the ways of obtaining energy; however, there is still no consensus regarding the transformation of the worldwide energy sector. We are talking about global energy because, in the era of, for example, the Schengen Area, the energy sector in Europe begins to know no borders. Later in this chapter, the reader will be able to deepen their knowledge on the following topics: • Energy Poverty • Smart Cities • Industry 4.0 Each of these issues is inexorably related to people, through creating and developing new behaviours and habits.

Chapter 8

Energy Poverty

At the beginning of this chapter, the authors of this book would like to thank professor Dariusz Karda´s and his team for preparing and providing materials needed to develop it.

8.1 Description of the Phenomenon and Definition of Energy Poverty Energy poverty is a recently defined socio-economic phenomenon that has been with us for many years and is defined as follows: the phenomenon of experiencing difficulties in satisfying basic energy needs in the place of residence at a reasonable price, which consists of maintaining an adequate standard of heat and supplying other types of energy to adequately satisfy the basic needs of biological and social functioning of household members (Miazga, A., Owczarek, D. Cold house, dark house, i.e. energy poverty in Poland, Institute for Structural Research, Warsaw 2015). The world is accelerating and bringing new political and economic developments each day. The pace of change is so great that we do not familiarise ourselves with our surroundings, we cannot imagine life without the Internet, smartphones or social media. In this dynamic world, energy is one of the slowest-changing sectors of the economy. Over the years, energy technologies and devices have not changed, and the efficiency of electricity production has remained at the same level. The energy sector based on coal, gas and nuclear reactors has become a field of competition for several of the largest international companies. Due to the high investment costs of new units, the scale of construction and the extended time of implementation, the energy sector was the subject of government policy and the interest of a small group of specialists. This static picture of the energy industry has changed with the development of photovoltaic, wind and biogas technologies. Their increase, measured by © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_8

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the power of new installations, is significant—reaching 6 thousand MW in Poland solely through wind turbines. However, this technological change is not accompanied by a structural change, as the vast majority of wind farm operators are big and prosperous companies. In Poland, as in other countries of the so-called Eastern Block, the power industry has its specificity both on a large and micro-scale [1]. It includes electricity and heat production, which are characterized by a high share of solid fuels. Burning coal and wood in domestic stoves and boiler rooms causes excessively high air pollution, which in winter exceeds the permissible standards many times over. The use of coal and wood is a result of low prices, the economic situation of Poles living in the provinces, the preexisting millions of heating devices, and habits that prefer very economical fuel management. All these factors cumulate and lead to the formation of characteristic smog in the autumn and winter months. It is worth mentioning that smog is one of the main ‘side effects’ of energy poverty.

8.2 Energy Poverty and the Problem of Smog Smog over Poland is not a new problem; for decades it has been a part of the landscape of towns and villages in the autumn and winter months. Before 1989 the main cause of air pollution was both large power plants and coal-fired heat and power plants. Presently, the leading cause of smog is burning coal in domestic boilers and stoves. Despite substantial technological and legal changes, the level of air dust in Poland is among the highest in Europe, as is the concentration of benzene and carbon monoxide. Our country, along with most Central European countries, has the most polluted air. Smog is not a Polish invention—its concentration is much higher in other regions of the world, but on the pollution map of Europe, Poland is the most prominent black spot. We are not the only ones, since air pollution is high in most of the countries of the ‘new Union’. Unfortunately, the large size of Poland and the substantial amount of its population makes the problem of smog stand out against the rest of Europe. Energy poverty, and thus also smog in Poland, has several causes, such as the availability and price of fuels, the age of existing central heating installations, the use of old combustion techniques and the tradition of throwing all flammable material into domestic boilers. Burning any material that has an energy value comes undoubtedly from poverty, but unfortunately, it has also become second nature to Poles. The Poles are very frugal and primarily driven by economic calculation. Energy costs are one of the largest items in household expenditure. In 2016, the household budget in Poland was dominated by food expenditures (24.2%), followed closely by housing and energy expenses (19.6%). In the case of rural areas, a noticeably greater share was spent on meeting basic needs, that is food, housing, energy and transport. In urban households, the share of expenditure was higher on clothing and footwear, housing and energy carriers, health, communication, recreation and culture, education, restaurants and hotels as well as other goods and services.

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In 2016, the level of the average monthly disposable income per person in Poland was PLN 1475, and PLN 17,700 per year [2]. The situation of people living in the countryside is more challenging because they have significantly lower incomes, around PLN 1150 per month per person and PLN 13,800 per year. Farmers’ households also recorded the fewest expenses—PLN 815 per person per month. Annual expenses for housing and energy per person (average for entire Poland) amount to PLN 3540. Average annual expenses on energy carriers account for 11.4% of total expenses, which means PLN 2000 per person. As a result, a four-person household spends PLN 8000 annually on energy, which are significant amounts for middleclass and poorer families, hence various attempts to reduce them. The possibilities of reducing electricity costs are limited; the easiest way to save is to use cheap solid fuels and combustible waste, one of the root causes of smog (Fig. 8.1). Another reason for the large role domestic boilers and stoves play in air pollution is their age, which is easy to explain when the purchase price of a new class 5 coal boiler, around PLN 10,000. PLN, is considered. There are approximately 13.4 million households in Poland, the majority of which (55.5%) are multifamily residential with 44.5% consisting of single-family houses. There are currently approx. 5–6 million households in Poland which use coal and biomass for heating purposes and domestic water heating. Most of these use older generation boilers with low efficiency and high emission levels. The oldest devices include solid fuel stoves, the average age of which exceeds 24 years, and the boilers are on average 10 years old. In turn, the share of solid fuel boilers and stoves as emission sources in air pollution in Poland is estimated at over 90% (Fig. 8.2). Solid fuels are used by 47% of households. The two most important and widely used solid fuels are bituminous coal and firewood. Coal and firewood are usually

Fig. 8.1 Household expenditure structure in 2019 (Household budget survey in 2019, Statistics Poland 2020)

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Fig. 8.2 Ways of heating households (Household budget survey in 2019, Statistics Poland 2020)

Table 8.1 Use of bituminous coal for heating purposes in households Energy carrier

Number of households

Domestic consumption

Average annual consumption in a household

Bituminous coal

5.4 mln

15.4 mln tons

2840 kg

consumed simultaneously or alternately in the same boilers and stoves. The arithmetic mean of the annual household coal consumption is 2.8 tons. According to the data of the Central Statistical Office, 15.4 million tons of coal are used in households every year (Table 8.1). Apart from bituminous coal, about 3–4 million m3 of firewood is burned in domestic heating systems. The value of solid fuel used in individual farms is extensive and amounts to approximately PLN 11 billion. Unfortunately, Poles often use household waste such as PET bottles and other products and packaging subject to the combustion process. As a result, Poland struggles with an increasing smog problem. Smog over Poland is a real problem affecting the health and life of millions of urban and rural residents. The high concentration of particulate matter and benzo(a)pyrene is the cause of respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Smog has become a topic of talks, triggered numerous social initiatives, with monitoring available on many websites and educational portals, and is present in the media and press. This interest in air quality is the result of changes in Polish society, from which a high standard of living is of increasing importance, and the awareness of the relationship between health and the state of the environment is becoming stronger. This important problem is also noticed by politicians at the level of national and local government, which is manifested by ministerial ordinances regarding boilers and fuel, and subsequent resolutions of local councils. The industry of central heating boilers, which offers

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a whole range of class 5 boilers, and coal sellers offering better and better fuel, are rapidly adjusting to the changes in regulations. Traders who sell various types of anti-smog masks have responded to the problem, and applications for mobile phones with the ability to measure pollution have also appeared. However, air pollution in Poland is not the highest; there are countries where breathing is associated with greater threat, which results in a common desire to learn about its condition and causes. It is precisely due to its global nature that smog is the subject of research and analysis by scientists from many countries. The measure of interest in this topic may be the number of publications on smog. In this context, interesting results can be found in the ScienceDirect search engine, which has listed around 400 articles containing the word “smog” in the title, summary or keyword over the last 10 years. A large proportion of these articles originated in China, and many concern China, which is understandable due to its size and the pollution of the country’s air. Local governments are calling on the European Commission to propose specific goals in order to reduce energy poverty by 2030 and eliminate it by 2050. Energy poverty is a major social challenge that directly affects the health of some 54 million Europeans (EC). High energy prices, low incomes and poorly insulated, damp and unhealthy housing lead to higher rates of energy poverty. Electricity prices have increased significantly in most countries in the last decade, which, combined with the recent financial and economic crisis and the poor energy efficiency of European buildings, is giving rise to increasing concern about energy poverty in Europe. Energy poverty affects around 11% of the EU population, or 54 million Europeans. However, most EU countries still do not identify and quantify disadvantaged energy consumers, and do not develop well-targeted measures to combat energy poverty. The European Committee of the Regions (CoR), has become increasingly concerned about energy poverty, and unanimously adopted an opinion on multilevel governance and cross-sector cooperation in the fight against energy poverty. It has made several proposals, including on further developing the European definition of energy poverty, targeted investments in energy efficiency, reviewing the single market to keep household prices low, and ongoing goals to eliminate energy poverty. Scientists, local government officials and local activists agree that basic energy prices for households cannot be left to market self-regulation. To reduce excessive energy costs, cities and regions call on the EU to put in place a legal framework that provides Member States and local and regional authorities with the right tools to ensure affordable energy for all. For this reason, the CoR highlights the request of the European Parliament to the European Commission to clarify in more detail when Member States can intervene in the market to avoid energy poverty for ‘a significant number of households’. Local leaders are proposing a moratorium on interrupting or suspending essential energy services to citizens who are behind on payments. Cities and regions are urging Member States to transpose the updated Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) into national law by March 2020 at the latest. The new directive entered into force on 9 July 2018. It includes measures

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that will accelerate the pace of building renovation towards more energy-efficient systems and increase the energy efficiency of new buildings. However, members reiterate that the updated directive should be complemented by additional targets and investments in the renovation of Europe’s building stock, without which efforts to eradicate energy poverty will fail. Services that provide adequate heating, cooling, lighting and energy to power appliances are essential to guarantee a decent standard of living and health for citizens. Energy poverty occurs when a household suffers from a lack of adequate home energy services (CA). Local leaders want to extend the period of operation of the EU Energy Poverty Observatory (EPOV), in order to continue to collect and analyze data that will serve to improve the policy to eliminate energy poverty. Members observe that two thirds of Member States do not yet monitor the development of energy poverty through quantified measures. Energy poverty might affect almost 11% of the EU population (read the full study here) Country specific information can be found in the European Energy Network report “Energy Poverty in the European Union” (2019). Energy poverty is a separate type of poverty that has a number of negative consequences for health and well-being: respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, as well as mental health problems that are exacerbated by cold temperatures and the stress of not being able to pay energy bills, and low academic performance in children who are affected by it. It has indirect implications for many policy areas, including health, environment and productivity. Addressing this problem can bring many benefits, including reducing government spending on health, less pollution and CO2 emissions, greater comfort and well-being, improved household budgets, and increased economic activity (EC).

8.3 Preventive Actions As part of the Clean Energy for All Europeans package, the European Commission has proposed a number of measures to tackle energy poverty through energy efficiency, disconnection safeguards, and better definition and monitoring of the problem at Member State level through integrated national energy and climate plans. As a consequence, the legal context of the EU regarding energy poverty is undergoing several changes. It is mentioned in the new Energy Efficiency Directive (2018/2002), in the new Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (2018/844) and in the Governance Regulation (2018/1999). It also appears in the Electricity Directive (2009/72) and its revised version was the result of a political agreement reached in December 2018 (for more information, see here). According to the European Energy Poverty Observatory, the main indicators of energy poverty are: low absolute energy consumption, arrears in paying utility bills,

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spending a large share of income on energy and an inability to maintain a suitable temperature in the apartment. Electricity prices for household consumers have risen steadily over the past 12 years. The average cost of a kilowatt-hour in the EU-28 increased from EUR 0.18 in the first half of 2007 to EUR 0.21 in the second half of 2018 (Eurostat data), with significant differences between Member States. The five countries where a kilowatt hour costs the most after all taxes and fees are included are: Denmark (EUR 0.31), Germany (EUR 0.30), Belgium (EUR 0.29), Ireland (EUR 0.25) and Spain (EUR 0.24). At the opposite end of the spectrum are the countries where the kilowatt hour is cheapest: Bulgaria (EUR 0.10), Lithuania (EUR 0.10), Hungary (EUR 0.11), Romania (EUR 0.13), Malta (EUR 0.13) and Poland (EUR 0.13) (Eurostat data). One of the main indicators of energy poverty is the utility bill backlog, which shows the share of households unable to pay their utility bills on time (heating, electricity, gas, water, etc.) due to financial difficulties. Between 2010 and 2017, the average number of such cases in the EU-28 has decreased from 9 to 7%, but the situations of particular nations remain very different. In 2017, as many as 38% of Greeks, 30% of Bulgarians and 21% of Croats admitted that they had settled their energy bills late due to financial constraints. The following countries are above the EU average of 7%: Romania (16%), Slovenia (14.3%), Hungary (13.9%), Cyprus (13.7%), Latvia (11.9%), Poland (8.5%) and Spain (7.4%) (Eurostat data). EPBD (The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive) of the European Parliament and the Council (EU) 2018/844 of 30 May 2018 amending Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings and Directive 2012/27/EU on energy efficiency. To sum up this chapter, it is worth saying that we need all hands on deck in the fight against energy poverty. Therefore, it is so important to make the public aware of the threats posed by environmental pollution in the form of, for example, smog. NGO-type institutions, such as foundations, are ideal for this type of activity. Foundations are useful for creating platforms for cooperation between science-governmentindustry and the so-called end users. The aid programs and co-financing of other heat generation technologies for the needs of single-family buildings are not enough. In Poland, we are already seeing actions by wealthy local governments ready to finance the replacement of, for example, a coal-fired boiler with a gas boiler, and yet the population does not choose to do so. One of the reasons for this is low public awareness. Therefore, in the opinion of the authors, foundations and other public benefit organizations will perfectly fill this gap in raising people’s awareness of energy poverty and smog.

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References 1. R. Boguszewski, T. Herudzi´nski, Ubustwo energtyczne w Polsce (Pracowania Bada´n Społecznych SGGW, Warszawa, 2018) 2. P. Lyso´n, M. Barlik, D. Jacyków, Bud˙zety gospodarstw domowych w 2019 r. (Household budget survey in 2019), Główny Urz˛ad Statystyczny Statistics Poland, Warszawa 2020

Chapter 9

Smart Cities

At the beginning of this chapter, the authors of this book would like to thank Wojciech Czapla, the coordinator of the Polish Smart City project, for preparing and providing the materials needed to draft this chapter.

9.1 Introduction to the Subject of Smart Cities Smart cities appeared in literature at the end of the twentieth century, initially under the concept of a web or virtual city, which referred to an attempt to use the potential of the Internet in public urban space. Network city marketing, a new type of electronic utility and commercial service delivery—these were the beginnings. There were many attempts to define the new reality, but significantly the practice seems to have eluded and slipped away from theoreticians. The development of technology is rapid, and what is more, in the great mass of new applications, it is largely spontaneous. It is not the purpose of this study to discuss or argue with the doctrine functioning in the intellectual space, but an attempt to draw practical conclusions and essential analysis of the possibilities of optimal implementation of new technologies in the urban (smart city) and rural (smart village) environment. At the moment, we cannot only talk about an intelligent city, because industrial development is blurring its borders; urban, suburban and rural functions are becoming more similar and permeating. Nevertheless, the city and the village still retain their separateness, resulting not only from cultural differences but also from different needs. We exist at the moment when the “Internet of Things” has ceased to be a development goal and has become one of the tools of progress. Identification of billions of devices means billions of data streams which can be used in a million ways. Analytical and computing systems, distributed and personalized, big data, telematics, telemetry, cloud (Cloud computing), fog (Fog computing) and blockchain technologies have huge potential, but also represent a huge field for misuse and plain errors. A more detailed description © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_9

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of these issues can be found in the article “Smart_city_ industry_4_0”. Below we will focus on the information that will allow us to understand the idea of the Polish Intelligent City (PIM) and the construction and implementation of the Public Smart City Platform. The degree of advancement and the complexity of technology require specialization of competences and appropriate research and technical bases, exceeding the capabilities of public and local government institutions. It is no wonder that Polish cities, so far catching up with infrastructure, are just entering the era of smart development. It is not an easy process despite the multitude of offers and solutions in this field. Formal and procedural problems, the “technological paradox” (obsolescence of technology in the course of tender procedures) put us somewhere in the back of the European “smart peloton”. Europe, including Poland, is a region which—thanks to the characteristics of the newly created industrial structure—was afforded a great opportunity to make optimal use of the effect of the technological revolution, also known as the fourth industrial revolution “Industrie 4.0” (readers will find out more about this later in this book). What makes our region of the world so special? What makes our position unique? What makes our potential not less than that of such developed countries as China, Japan or the USA? The answer to this boldly asked question consists of three words: dynamism, competence, size. For example, Poland, as a young developing economy, is becoming an aggressive player on the commercial and industrial map of Europe. Importantly, we are dynamically moving not only in the area of production but also services, including IT services and those related to the development of new technologies. Working for the best European and global brands in various fields, by increasing their qualifications and know-how, thousands of Polish companies have acquired competences and achieved a level of development that allows them to think about their own production. Science has achieved the appropriate technical level. Appropriate laboratory facilities have been established and now our research institutes meet the highest European standards (e.g. Research Center KEZO PAN, Institute of Energy AGH). We have a large enough internal market to enable effective implementations and debuts for domestic technologies and products. This element applies especially to public space, where solutions that are potentially technological export products can develop. Public space is a natural base and infrastructure for stimulating the growth of commercial projects. The concept of business infrastructure now applies equally to both physical and virtual space. Technological changes are an opportunity to introduce new products, which can become a driving force for the economy; to the internal, and then external markets. The lack of a “target product”, understood as domestic trade brands (car, consumer electronics, household appliances, computers, smartphones, broadly understood IT and smart city technologies), causes the migration of domestic technical thought and innovations that can be commercialized. However, SMART CITIES could potentially threaten this migration.

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The smart city—seen from a macro perspective—is a strategic dilemma regarding the future of the entire national economy. Infrastructural investments related to emobile, development of the smart city sphere, optimization and increasing the level of security of energy networks, renewable energy sources and development of key technologies are just some of the challenges, but also represent problems. The number of these challenges naturally leads to investment and system chaos. However, it may be a unique opportunity to coordinate activities and gain regional advantage through competent, conscious, planned implementation and continuous development of systems. Technologies have matured, and the pace of the global development means that their excesses have become a problem. The degree of their complexity causes an inability for them to be objectively assessed by ad hoc teams. Using such rapid technological progress in an optimal way requires the creation of a method of professionalization of activities related to their implementations and continuous development in public space. The level of advancement and complexity of the technology is so great that it is impossible to conduct reasonable public procurement procedures. To assess the usefulness of the offered products, you need specialists and usually whole groups of specialists who are constantly active and developing in their field. External experts are not suitable for this, because they are typically associated with interest groups; non-industry officials or managers are not able to competently verify the prepared specifications or predict the effects of their implementation. The evidence for this can be found in the enormous expenditure of state institutions on relatively simple IT systems, the cost of which sometimes exceeds the value of a much more complex and equally or even more secure banking system— sometimes a hundred times over. City systems can incur similarly bizarre prices. In both cases, the quality of implementations is often unsatisfactory for the recipients/users. The dissatisfaction is usually not due to the bad quality of the product, but to what may be called an “administrative technological paradox”. The paradox is that the lengthy preparation and conduct of tender and purchasing procedures means that the implemented technology is already obsolete. Awareness of the lack of competences results in a tendency to overcompensate by additional, unnecessary expert opinions and procedures. This strengthens the paradox effect and leads to criticism of the policy by society and media. The time taken to prepare an innovative concept and its implementation is usually several years. If we compare our phone four years ago with the current model, the problem becomes even more apparent. It is necessary to support and relieve state and local government bodies that do not have the appropriate competencies to eliminate administrative barriers to implementing new technologies. This is the role of the Polish Smart City Standards and the Polish Smart City (PIM) program. PIM is not a traditional research unit, but a selection and implementation method. Its role is to indicate and recommend coherent directions of development, technologies and supporting implementations, as well as their monitoring and further development. PIM does not appropriate institutional competences (local or state), but, using the possibilities of the Research Center of the Polish Academy of Sciences KEZO, prepares professional and independent recommendations and concepts and examines and recommends specific solutions and analyzes their implementation.

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9.2 Standards Sharing, Integration and Activation In the twentieth century, infrastructure was a deciding factor in the development opportunities of various regions. Roads, airports, railways, water, sewage, electricity and gas are determinants that guarantee the success of a civilization. In places where these were available, development was quite fast, sometimes spectacular. However, the development of infrastructure, industry and related services was a long and costly process, calculated not in years but decades. Technically, there was system independence. Global companies made sure that their solutions did not “cooperate” with the competition. It ensured the continuation of orders, built a loyalty policy and created technological ‘clans’. The conservatism of the corporate giants was so deeply entrenched that it missed the moment of entering the accelerated development mode, which can be described as the technological revolution. The rise of personal computers and the Internet was the preview. It is symptomatic that the new “giants” associated with the cyber world turned into relics of the past almost immediately. The pace of the development of the new empires—starting from the product’s debut to a global brand—has been downright staggering, previously unheard of, impossible and improbable. The twenty-first century is a century of new opportunities, a century that surprised us with even greater technological acceleration. Observers, who considered the end of the twentieth century a technological gallop, rubbed their eyes in amazement when looking at the increasingly futuristic cities. Laptops, smartphones, LED screens of various sizes and colours on the streets, in buses, subways, trams, inside and outside buildings, virtual services, e-shops, e-payments, e-currencies. CD and video rentals have disappeared unnoticed, rarely used DVD players are covered with a layer of dust and streaming has become the norm. Not only can we watch a movie on our smartphone, but also broadcast live sports games. We use free video calls and hundreds of multi-functions. Smart lights and buildings, autonomous vehicles, internet of things, telemetry, telematics, thousands of apps. No wonder that “INTEGRATION” has become the keyword in this multitude of novelties. Obstacles and Threats Integration in commercial space has become a fact, closed systems are failing, open systems are taking over the market. Commerce under economic pressure reacts quickly to the possibility of reducing costs, increasing the effectiveness of reaching the customer, multiplying marketing possibilities. Public space, at least in Poland, is doing worse. It’s not surprising that when passing by retail outlets, we see an advertisement for a product that we have recently searched for on the Internet, that we are recognized, followed and analyzed in terms of our consumer tastes and tourist peregrinations. But we are also not surprised when we want to obtain, for example, a new driving license for which we have to fill in the form manually at the office, providing the data that the office has, which the municipal companies and municipal health centre, ZUS and the Tax Office also have. Why can’t the communications department see our data? After all, it is part of the City Hall. Why does the administration need an ID card number if we have PESEL, why do companies need to

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have NIP, REGON and KRS? Wouldn’t it be easier to have just one identification number? The answer is obvious, systems in public space either do not communicate or communicate defectively, and within them are our urban systems. Why is it not possible to pay for parking, public transport ticket or administrative fee in the same way? Why, when registering a car, do you have to go to a local bank, often a cooperative one, and pay the fee at the counter? Why does this problem exist, when if I were to use an online taxi application, I can see the vehicle moving, the estimated time of arrival, the name of the driver, the brand of the car and what reviews he has from other network users, and while waiting for the bus, at best, I can see its number and travel time on the bus stop sign (but I still have to go to the bus stop, when if I knew about a possible delay I could wait in the office or home)? Unfortunately, again we are touching a sensitive area of competence. With the current development of application products, long-term preparation of specifications e.g. for a city application, makes it necessary to constantly update. The righteous intention to “improve” the product creates a technological paradox which leads to such a length of procedures that there is often a problem with maintaining a representative portfolio of bidders. Many valuable companies resign from participation in tender procedures, not wanting to incur the costs of constantly updating offers, participation in discussion panels and then the pressure of lowering the implementation costs because the price is, in practice, the decisive evaluation parameter. The uncertainty of decision-makers as to the choice of potential innovations overlaps with the natural systemic reluctance to change their subordinates. In the absence of economic pressure in the public space, the only way to accelerate change is through a path that includes three important steps: COMMONALITY, INTEGRATION and ACTIVATION. They are related to the process of rebuilding awareness and continuous education, which should be conducted taking into account modern social tools, more about which will be found later in the monograph (INDUCTIVE DIDACTICS). Specifically, the resistance of the administrative circles towards “innovation” is systemic. Privately, the vast majority of employees in the public sector use modern technologies (online banking, social media, e-shopping, etc.), spontaneously and efficiently expanding their range due to fashion, practicality and usefulness in everyday life. This clear dichotomy must be skilfully used as a weapon in the fight against the tendency to routinise and anachronise administrative techniques and procedures. COMMONALITY—Creating and recommending universal (dedicated to all recipients) innovative tools for public space, making them available free of charge, promoting methodology and implementations using social media tools. Commonality means no tendering procedures (no price), transferring good product practices for individual recipients into a public, local governmental and administrative space. INTEGRATION—The universality of the recommended innovative tools, their availability (from the level of administration panel) and system openness (introducing improvements by users or in interaction with users) lead to system integration, which should not be confused with monopolization. For example, when making e-purchases, we make payments with a payment system—we usually have a large selection of them, including bank transfers. However, we do not have to download and install more applications; we simply click on the icon of the selected system and

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then it’s readily available. A similar outcome should be pursued in the public space. There is no need to build systems/applications/tools dedicated to a specific city. It is expensive, unreasonable and afunctional. Large urban centres spend a lot of money in implementing unique systems for which the city’s administrative boundary is a barrier to development. It is as if each network user was to build a unique mailbox (e-mail program) or a unique individual interface to a laptop. Not only would this incur absurd costs, but also create tools to separate its utility from the environment. For example, if he wanted to use someone else’s laptop, he would have a problem with the Windows interface. Smaller centres suspend implementations, making them dependent on soft financing following the principle that passing a project procedure is a sufficient justification for the expenditure and selected technologies. However, unsuccessful projects are not indifferent to budget beneficiaries, as they bear the costs of project preparation and their contribution. In this regard, what would be helpful (especially for smaller units), is a publicly available free PIM platform (Polish Smart City, more on which later in the monograph), where all tools meeting the standards will be made available for administration. What’s more, the tools and systems would be constantly supplemented, improved and developed, just like computer software that is updated daily, almost imperceptibly increasing the comfort, quality and level of utility innovation. The result of the use of open universal tools is the limitation of system routinization as well as the increase and dissemination of competences. For example, a communication specialist in city X, when moving to city Y, does not learn new systems from scratch. Moreover, the introduction of improvements and innovations takes place gradually and almost automatically. Of course, it is not without problems, because no one likes even small alterations, for example when the mailbox interface is changed. In the end, the user is gradually switching to a newer model, even though he is not forced to do so. ACTIVATION—the introduction of universal open systems accelerates the implementation of innovations on a parallel and vertical level. At the parallel level, it is most often the effect of an example or a demonstration. Introducing innovation to the “neighbours” with whom we often compete or compare ourselves to (city X and Y, office X and Y) has a very stimulating effect on society. Raising the standard of a unit, which usually publicly emphasizes its “advantage” over the neighbouring units, cannot be overestimated from the point of view of “dissemination”. Vertical activation is a more complex process. As a result, the dissemination of innovations at the operational level leads to their inclusion in the administrative practice of superior units. They can use them as part of administrative routines in a practical way, they can improve these routines, they can also take them into account as binding standards by introducing administrative compulsion to use them. There is an undeniable regularity between the acceleration of the improvement of regulations in connection with the changing applied practice, both within administrative units and nationwide. On a macro scale, this accelerates changes in the functioning of central offices and the state-citizen and state-entrepreneur relations, which leads to legislative changes. As a result, it leads to correcting the streams of support from the state and the EU.

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9.3 Smart City Standards—Building the Foundations of ALLternet Infrastructure (ALL) The Smart City Standards are an attempt to meet the needs of the public sphere [1–5]. They are a useful, though still insufficient source of knowledge about the methodology and philosophy of building a common “cyber house”, about its unimaginable possibilities and unimaginable threats. We want not only to point out problems and solutions but also to make everyone aware that decisions currently being made will open or close the doors to rapid development. A monograph allows the presentation of views and opinions of eminent specialists and scientists for whom smart-city is the subject of daily work and analysis. These specialists want to share their knowledge and awareness of the importance of the present moment and the importance of the technological choices made now. This is an important step for public and private space, a step which the safety and comfort of life for future generations depends upon. In a 2017 report commissioned by one of the leaders of smart technologies on the European market, Easy Park Group examined 500 cities in terms of 19 criteria (e.g. the level of smartphone use in various fields, the use of intelligent systems in road traffic and the use of modern technologies in the field of energy consumption). Of these, the 100 most intelligent cities were selected. On this list, there are 57 European cities, while the rapidly developing metropolises in Asia, numbering 18, came second. As for the rest of the continents, there are 14 smart cities in North America, five in South America, five in Australia and one in Africa. The information and communication technologies (ICT) are seen as a major success factor mostly in North America (especially in the US) and in Europe. In Australia, on the other hand, the role of digital media, the creative industry and cultural initiatives are emphasized. The largest number of smart cities exists in Germany with 10, while the US is in second place, with 7 cities. Moving on directly to the names of the cities that turned out to be the smartest, first place went to Copenhagen, second to Singapore and third to Stockholm. In this report, we can also find Warsaw as the only Polish city qualified, although unfortunately only in 89th place. The quoted report prepared by Easy Park Group is probably too kind because the 89th position of Warsaw seems a bit excessive; every inhabitant of Warsaw would probably agree with that statement. A program that can change this situation is the “Standardization of the Polish Smart City”. Thanks to this initiative, with the involvement and support of the KEZO PAN Research Center, smart city solutions will be systematically disseminated and fully integrated through a digital social communication platform for city technologies, services and resources. The aim of the “Public Intelligent City Platform” (PPIM) is to provide an intelligent, manageable and secure infrastructure that can be scaled to support billions of devices. Thanks to this project, Poland and other European/World countries in a similar economic and social situation have a chance for the dynamic development of new smart cities and villages, and thus for a significant improvement in the quality of life of their residents.

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Understanding the principles of the Public Smart City Platform, and its practical advantage over the solutions implemented so far, requires a brief analysis of the functioning of the “Internet of Things” and the effects of its development. The term was first used by Kevin Ashton in 1999, as he noticed the increasing use of remote information gathering methods from various devices that not only send messages to their users but also communicate with each other. It was a natural consequence of the development of computer science, telecommunications and the internet. Described below are some basic functionalities for SmartCity standardization. Telemetry The possibility of mass data transfer, also in a wireless way, has led to the creation of multidimensional databases and their processing, in a way that allows for process control and operational decisions without human intervention. The rapid development of telemetry has begun; a field dealing with the automatic transmission of measurement values over a distance using modems, the internet, mobile telephony and radio systems. Thanks to it, the traffic of land, sea and air vehicles, energy devices, public transport, seismological and climate data is constantly monitored. It is difficult to imagine the functioning of sales and industrial systems or even a public opinion poll without telemetry. Telemetry systems operate by performing the following steps, among others: • • • •

record the results of measurements or specific signals, calculate average values, segregate and organize indicators based on measurement results, provide data and signals to initiate, regulate or to warn.

The above systems should use the so-called two-way telemetry, allowing full remote and automatic control over device settings. This solution can be found, for example, in new cars in which the monitoring of engine revolutions is carried out “outside” of these vehicles (systems for remote car monitoring such as Volvo On Call or Mercedes Me). These types of solutions are just a step away from telematics. Telematics Let us imagine adding a range of further possibilities to telemetry that uses the transmission of measured values, such as: • obtaining extended information: radars, video cameras, monitoring of applications and dedicated systems, • use of satellite systems, local, mobile and wide area networks for communication, • presentation of information and recommendations for telematics system administrators, • presentation of information and recommendations for system users (SMS, voice and visual information, internet, traffic lights), • systems for processing, analysis and automation of repetitive processes and reactions.

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Summing up the above, we find ourselves in the area of another fruit of the turbulent relationship between the development of telecommunications and IT: telematics. Telematics is characterized by advanced and complex systems of obtaining, processing, transmitting and using the information in the optimization of management and decision-making processes. Telematics systems are designed and adapted to specific organizations and physical systems and are fully integrated with these systems. Hence, we can talk about transport, medical, industrial, energy, construction, etc. Telematics does not only use data collected by telemetry devices. Thanks to advanced analytical and monitoring programs, it processes data from, for example, exchanges, trade statistics, information on border traffic, increases or decreases in extraction and forecasts, depending on the needs of a given system. It permits automating some of the processes while supporting the part that requires the decisionmaking power of the system manager. It optimizes costs and logistics, increases sales, range and communication with users or customers, and achieves other segmentally set goals. Internet of Things Let’s imagine that the telemetry and telematics capabilities as dedicated systems are to serve not only specific companies, enterprises and institutions, but also the general public, residents of cities, villages and communities. Imagine a system which is created to work for the benefit of the consumer, producer, clerk, applicant, driver and pedestrian. Logically speaking, faster information exchange, faster decisions, more efficient shopping and immediate interventions (ambulance, fire brigade, information about natural disasters) increase the comfort of all participants in social life. The Internet of Things is a means of creating smart environments and spaces: smart homes, cities, intelligent communication systems, energy or intelligent health care systems. These spaces shouldn’t require user-beneficiary activity. If we have an active communicator/smartphone/laptop with us, we will receive useful information without applying for it. If our child becomes unwell at school and goes to the nurse—while registering his visit, we will receive a notification. If we have household appliances, heating and other consumer devices at home, we will receive information about their malfunction (too much energy consumption), and in the event of a threat, e.g. a furnace failure, the relevant services will automatically receive information. Open telematics systems will monitor our surroundings without our participation, taking care of ecology, costs and safety. The Internet of Things does not require the installation of targeted applications. Once approved, the system develops and improves just like the functions in the Windows system, asking for our consent only during “sensitive” system updates. The functioning of the Internet of Things depends on the number of data emitters and their versatility. Each electronic device, equipped with sensors, develops systems by exchanging data. However, for the flow of information to be more analytical, emitters which aren’t present in traditional devices are needed. They are necessary

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to generate functions that meet the needs of the end-user of the system. This function is performed by beacons. Infrastructure of the Internet of Things—Beacons—sensor networks Beacons are small devices (sensors) with low energy consumption; they are powered by a battery and have a chip generating radio signal (Bluetooth). They are created to fulfil the information needs of intelligent objects or systems or to independently collect data unavailable for other devices, analyze it and send it both to other devices and the end-user (human). The effects of a beacon are as follows: • signal transmission towards the system (router, management centre) and the enduser (smartphone), • reading the message by the addressee, including the mobile application, • displaying user information (visual, voice, SMS notification, etc.), • recommendation of a specific behaviour in virtual or real space and assistance in its implementation (by suggesting going to a specific place, and indicating the optimal route). The use of beacons is versatile, from security systems, biosensors and bioidentifiers to public transport systems, shopping malls and shopping centres. The latter already use beacons on a massive scale. By sending a radio signal detectable by mobile devices, beacons make it possible to set its range (100 m, 50 m, 1 m). We can be greeted by a store while in its vicinity, receive information about a potentially interesting discount, and upon entering a store we will obtain further data on special offers and loyalty incentives. Beacons can navigate us at airports, museums, hospitals or public places. Microsensors can eliminate stale products by analyzing the level of the decay process; they can analyze our blood pressure and sugar levels. The number of application methods is growing rapidly; it should be emphasized that the technology is relatively new. Apple presented iBeacon in 2013 at the Worldwide Developers Conference and on December 6, 2013, it was installed in all Apple Stores in the United States. At the screening, upon entering the store, the client was greeted with the information that his order was waiting. After approaching the stand with gadgets, he was prompted about promotions and received information whereby he would learn more about the product by scanning its code. He was also informed that he could choose to pay via his iTunes account. Google demonstrated Eddystone, a twin technology, in July 2015. The Google system, however, in contrast to iBeacon, is open (open source) and available, for example, on GitHub. The popularity of beacons and sensors is also related to their price—they are not only small but cheap and easily adaptable to any type of device. Signal recipient technology has also made a huge leap. Modern smartphones or smartwatches have an appropriate arsenal of receivers: accelerometer, gyroscope, magnetometer, temperature and humidity sensors, barometer, lighting and proximity sensors. Their development is a continuous process, so it seems inevitable that dreams about CeNSE

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(Central Nervous System of the Earth) will come true. CeNSE is about intensive sensoring of the Earth to create a sensory nervous system of our planet. In cities leading in smart rankings, advanced web services are an everyday reality as they optimize the management and operational processes of urban infrastructure. They control lighting, city traffic, parking spaces (by directing drivers to them and charging tolls), they handle public transport and the work of offices, services, trade and waste management. In Denmark, there’s no need to introduce yourself when calling a doctor’s office. Reception staff answering the phone at the dentist’s office greets patients by their names with test results and treatment history on the screen. Other service providers see the scope of information necessary to provide the maximum standard of service while being obliged to adequately secure this data. The rules are followed closely, as their violation entails exclusion from the system. The systems offer different levels of privileges and amenities depending on a person’s status; foreign tourists, residents, citizens, students or pensioners. Network systems are trying to integrate with the needs of their users. Here, we cross the border of the Internet of Things and enter the world of communication between devices—data emission, multi-level and large-scale processing of data, optimization and management systems. Here is also where the most difficult, yet fascinating crossover happens; where the advanced (but still scalable) technology meets the abstract subjectivism of the human being and its community—society. ALLternet (ALL)—Internet of Everything—Internet of Everything (IoE) Internet of Everything (IoE)—this term was first used and defined by a world-famous company: CISCO. The authors understand it as a reality in which tens (or even hundreds) of billions of objects and billions of users will create a new type of interaction between people and devices. When working on the Standards of the Polish Smart City and the Public Platform for Smart City, we prefer to use our own name: ALLternet (abbreviated as ALL), which, in our opinion, reflects the complexity of this phenomenon in a less metaphysical way. ALLternet’s interaction problem is the clash of technology with the comfort zone (freedom of choice) of the user (human). Systems are not able to relate to states of spirit or to interpret such behaviours as falsehood, inconsistency, moodiness. Ideally, optimization of home management within ALLternet should lead to a reduction in energy consumption, creating parameters most suitable to our health and living habits. An example would be when returning from work in the winter we would find the house a bit cold (19 °C) because the system decided that it was optimal from the point of view of our health and maintenance costs. Gradation of priorities, deviations from them and evaluation in unusual situations is a real problem of artificial intelligence. Following the example of the house, our disposition to manage it at an optimal cost and in an ecological manner may be in contradiction with our utilitarian practice; sometimes we disregard the energy usage, and we behave irrationally (e.g. by being sloppy, behaving under the influence of emotions or stimulants), which ALL tracks, records, analyzes and tries to rationalize. After all, what is more important? Our disposition or practice, energy costs or the habit of opening windows, etc.? In the area of infrastructure management, the matter is much simpler, but when faced with

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the needs and states of mind, “artificial intelligence” has the right to fall into ‘artificial schizophrenia’. The evaluation criteria include technological possibilities and their influence on the level of social culture, environmental activation, prevention of exclusion, the general level of health and social satisfaction—sometimes referred to as the level of happiness. ALLternet (ALL) and the Polish Smart City (PIM)—methodology of building a Public Platform for Smart City (PPIM) The above argumentation shows the scale of available possibilities in a synthetic way, ignoring the very important issue of barriers that new technologies encounter in the public space. The degree of complexity of the systems offered makes their implementation difficult due to two basic limitations: • formal—having to adhere to specific regulations and procedures related to the selection of system solutions. Preparation of utility concepts, tender specifications, conducting formal decision-making processes (resolutions, approvals, opinions) and practical tender and purchasing procedures. Overly lengthy periods between the decision to use and the moment of acquiring and implementing the technology. • competence—no possibility of an objective evaluation of the specialized products and services offered; a great organizational and logistical effort at the stage of their implementation. Benefiting from the development of smart technologies privately or commercially, we make individual quick choices, gradually learning new functionalities. In the public space, the introduced system must be functionally complete. A local government or administrative unit is a professional entity and an auxiliary to users (residents, citizens), so it cannot implement systems which it is not able to fully support. Being aware of the above limitations, it is necessary to consider introducing the idea of PPIM in a step-by-step manner, enabling a simple implementation while maximizing the positive social effect. Ease of implementation and high everyday usability of the solutions offered for residents will encourage local governments, also causing a high level of social acceptance. This will facilitate the gradual expansion of systems which will permanently stay in the minds of users in a non-invasive way. The idea of PPIM is to be available to every local government unit. Most importantly, however, the cooperation offer should be addressed to medium-sized and small towns and rural municipalities. In sum, to those entities which, due to their resources and size, have limited possibilities to build independent smart solutions (Fig. 9.1).

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Fig. 9.1 Conference—banner from the conference on Polish Smart Cities, below: an application for mobile devices, operating in the PIM standard

9.4 Development Opportunities Based on the Idea of Smart Cities A smart city is, in essence, an idea created to serve people, improving their standard of living in a way that will have a positive impact on the environment and its surroundings. Thanks to technological progress, it is a chance to correct and repair those areas that do not bring glory to civilization. The hopes associated with this

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direction of development are huge, even though the territory is extensive and interdisciplinary. A smart city is perceived as a set of key areas and a network of their countless connections and interactions. Particular attention should be paid to such elements as: • • • • •

economy, infrastructure and energy, transport and communication, environment and natural resources, social and cultural functions—the inhabitants should be an active initiator and participant in positive changes

To realize the complexity of the issue, it is good to get acquainted with the views of people who have knowledge and competence regarding it. The authors do not only mean their achievements and contribution in the form of, for example, this book, but also other achievements in this subject, which can be explored by the reader with the help of information found on the Internet. Our direction is the result of our constant choices and calculations based on our resources, knowledge and capabilities.

Industry 4.0 is mainly a knowledgeable management of resources using the latest IT solutions closely coupled with changes in human behavior.

References 1. W. Mytlewska, Fenomen koncepcji smart city. http://inteligentnapolska.pl/2018/11/10/fenomenkoncepcji-smart-city/ 2. A. Sumara. TOP 20 Smart Cities: Najbardziej inteligentne miasta s´wiata. Pobrane z: https://inzynieria.com/wpis-b.ranzy/rankingi/10/51189,top-20-smart-cities-najbardziej-inteli gentne-miasta-swiata-2017 3. M. Golan, https://www.golan.pl/5-rzeczy-ktore-powinienes-wiedziec-na-temat-beaconow/ 4. D. Stawasz, D. Sikora-Fernandez, M. Turała, Koncepcja smart city jako wyznacznik podejmowania decyzji zwi˛azanych funkcjonowaniem i rozwojem miasta. Stud. Informatica 29, 97–101 (2019) 5. Human World, Krzysztof Wo´zniak, Urszula Kokosi´nska, Standardy PIM, mat.op. Warszawa, 2017/2018

Chapter 10

Industry 4.0—The Fourth Industrial Revolution

At the beginning of this chapter, the authors of this book would like to express their gratitude to Mr Jakub Sawicki, a long-time employee of IMP PAN, for preparing and providing the materials needed to write this chapter.

10.1 What is the Fourth Industrial Revolution? ‘Smart’—intelligent, wise, clever, elegant, fashionable, stylish. The word “SMART” appears in our everyday life with increased frequency, along with technological progress. We see it every day on our smartphones (the word ‘smartphone’ is now officially a word in the Polish language). It is also used in reference to Smart Watches, Smart TV, even refrigerators and washing machines. What does this word mean in practice? Are our phones really that smart, or should this be considered to be a marketing gimmick? And what impact will all these ‘Smart’ devices have on our lives? We live in times our grandparents could only dream and fantasize about. Several decades ago, reading the classics of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells, everything sounded utopian. Back then human imagination created worlds and journeys that are completely ordinary to a modern person. The eighty days Phileas Fogg needed to orbit the globe seem like a waste of time in the era of cheap flights and ultra-fast rail. A business trip to China on Monday, a meeting in Los Angeles on Wednesday with a quick stop in Munich, and finally a weekend break in Copacabana is nothing unusual these days. Today, though progress has greatly exceeded the imagination of authors who lived 100 years ago, Polish writer Stanisław Lem deserves special attention, as he has turned out to be very prophetic in his vision of the future. He was known for creating elaborate neologisms. ‘Famtomatics’, which was an abstract and unreal concept at that time, is slowly starting to turn into reality in the form of increasingly developed © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_10

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virtual and augmented reality (Summa Technologiae 1964). He also envisioned the emergence of the Internet as a tool for linking computing stations, allowing every citizen to obtain information from a screen in every household; this literary vision reflected aspects of modern Big Data, HPC and cloud computing problems. A vision as fantastic as it is accurate, considering when these works were created—Astronauts 1951, Magellanic Cloud 1955, Dialogues 1957—so before the 1960s when the vision of the Internet had just started to sprout. Today, we live in a completely different reality than our fathers. Technological changes are taking place before our eyes. We are a generation witnessing these changes; the driving force for them, for the first time since the dawn of time, is not to increase production but to improve the quality of human life above all other reasons. There are many visions of the future cities; starting with futuristic visions straight from SF movies, through more tangible ones in the form of projects implemented by technological visionaries such as Elon Musk. Today, the visionary entrepreneurs are in their golden age. The previously mentioned Musk, on his own, changed the thinking about electric cars by creating Tesla. Although in reality, the electric car is older than vehicles with internal combustion engines, the way Tesla was introduced to customers, the marketing and the sales philosophy already shaped by Steve Jobs at Apple made Tesla a coveted car, an object of sighs and a kind of a ‘lighthouse’ for other car manufacturers. Jobs argued that whenever the company was to introduce the customers to a new product, they had to make them want it. It is the manufacturer who has to convince the customer what he needs and not the other way around. Jobs achieved that by adding various functionalities to his products, among many other sales techniques. Musk did not stop at Tesla and on May 6, 2002, he founded SpaceX where he began to deal with the idea of reusing rockets to minimize the costs of space travel. Initially it was supposed to minimize the costs of sending satellites and supplies to space stations, however the development of technology in the rocket sector will eventually enable commercial flights into space, and will ultimately lead to colonization of other areas of the galaxy. At first glance, it might seem like another dream or the utopian vision of one man, but the company is growing through supplying NASA and boasting more and more about their achievements. On February 6, 2018, SpaceX underwent another test by sending a Falcon Heavy rocket towards the orbit of Mars. In this entire endeavour, two facts are particularly noteworthy. The first is the safe return of two of the three so-called ‘Boosters’ or rocket elements responsible for the launch. Previously, it was impossible to reuse rocket components. Thanks to this, commercial flights will be much cheaper. The second interesting fact is that a Tesla Roadster car was loaded onto the rocket. Inside the car is a SpaceX-designed dummy with sensors; it will allow collecting the data necessary for a trip to the vicinity of Mars during the six-month journey. Cars and rockets are not the only things Elon Musk is working on. Another one of his companies deals with tunnelling for the so-called ‘Hyperloop’ (The Boring Company) and ‘SolarCity’—a company dealing with the development of solar energy by searching for new solutions using photovoltaics and the production of solar panels. Hyperloop is to facilitate transport between cities, allowing people to travel at the

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speed of sound. Such transport is designed to be as convenient and fast as by air, as cheap as by car, and with low emissions. It is for environmental reasons that Musk has become involved in SolarCity, which was created to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. Interestingly, not one of Elon Musk’s projects is profitable yet; what’s more, they record quite large losses (especially Tesla). However, this man and his vision still affect the human imagination. The speed of the progress, Musk’s bold vision and the fact that he’s always ahead of the competition mean that he easily finds financing for his projects. Will we be able to colonize Mars, will we travel at the speed of sound underground, or will oil and coal become unnecessary fuel soon? There is no clear answer to these questions, although, given the speed of events and changes in today’s world, there is a high probability that this will happen. Nevertheless, the most important aspect of the following considerations is not the very vision of these people, but a certain consistency that they show when they see that certain processes cannot be stopped.

10.2 Industrial Revolutions in the Past and Their Impact on the Environment and Urban Space The emergence of the Internet can be considered the beginning of the fourth industrial revolution. The concept of Industrie 4.0 was officially used for the first time in 2011 at the Hannover Messe fair and was more extensively defined in the recommendations for the Federal Government of Germany in the 2013 report. Defining Industry 4.0 is not an easy task, due to the fact that it cannot be assigned to any specific technology and does not describe one specific change. The concept itself is a definition of industry transformation using digital tools [1–5]. One cannot begin to consider the impact of 4.0 on modern urban areas without a concise historical analysis which will illustrate how each of the previous revolutions was inextricably linked to the change of lifestyle in cities but also had a great influence on how the development of industry affects culture and people’s lives. So, to fully illustrate the impact of the fourth industrial revolution on the functioning of a smart city, one should go back in time and present the impact of the previous three revolutions. Massive urbanization took place from the end of the eighteenth century (creation of steam engine) to the beginning of the twentieth century (electrification of cities). The increasing number of people working in the manufacturing and mining sectors concentrated in increasingly large industrial centres. This has resulted in massive urbanization and changes in production but has also had a great social and economic impact. People moved from rural areas to large industrial cities. In England, over the course of 100 years, the population in cities increased from 6 to 22 million inhabitants, accounting for a large emigration which was happening contemoporaneusly. At the beginning of the twentieth century, industrial cities were already heavily overcrowded, unemployment was high, and both occupational health and safety and

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the quality of life of the middle class were not even subjects of consideration. The social structure also changed. The importance of the working class and the industrial bourgeoisie grew, while the hitherto prominent position of farmers and artisans was weakened. Mass urbanization and high birth rate caused another avalanche of problems and related technological solutions. The influx of people into cities and the creation of an industrial sector that uses fossil fuels (e.g. in the production of steel), has caused health problems, the spread of new diseases and increasing air pollution. To deal with high mortality and disease, medicine and awareness of the importance of personal hygiene began to develop. The big breakthrough was also the development of railways, the industrialization of agriculture and the creation of large mining centres (e.g. coal, steel ore) and plantations (e.g. cotton). As a result of electrification, the working day has also been extended and production has increased significantly. However, at that time, the social aspect was not taken into account. There were problems of high unemployment, lack of any health and safety regulations, hygiene among workers, difficult conditions of work leading to health problems and many others, such as increasing crime. Places of strategic importance, with rich natural resources, were causing contention from the mid-nineteenth century to the end of World War II (e.g. Alsace and Lorraine). With the increasing technological development, especially after the end of World War II, the industry began to be automated. During this time the third industrial revolution, known as the scientific and technological revolution, began. An exceptional breakthrough happened during the 1970s; the creation of the first computers allowed for a change in production management, data archiving and revolutionized design and simulations over time.

10.3 What is Industry 4.0? Industry 4.0 is a generalizing concept relating to the ‘industrial revolution’ in connection with the modern mutual use of automation, data processing and exchange, and manufacturing techniques (the so-called Additive Manufacturing or Rapid Prototyping). It is a collective term for the techniques and principles of chain value organizations which combine or use cyber-physical systems, the Internet of Things, and cloud computing. It is a realization of an intelligent factory in which cyber-physical systems control physical processes, create virtual (digital) copies of the real world and make decentralized decisions, and, through the Internet of Things, in real-time communicate and cooperate with people and each other. Thanks to cloud computing, it offers and uses internal and inter-operational services. The term originated in Germany and comes from a government draft report on high tech strategy. It is a collective term for technical innovation and concepts of chain value organizations which transform industrial production in revolutionary ways. Industry 4.0 was based on 9 main pillars (Fig. 10.1).

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Fig. 10.1 Pillars of Industry 4.0

However, these pillars are not only of value for industrial units; they are already applied in areas of Smart Cities as well. These include, in particular: Cybersecurity In today’s digital world, security plays a key role. Starting from the security of an individual user, e.g. e-mail account, bank account or private computer with multimedia and documents, to the protection of key company data: business secrets, technological solutions, production plans and customers. According to a report published in 2018 by PwC, only 8% of Polish enterprises are prepared for cyber attacks. In 2017, as many as 44% of enterprises suffered a financial loss caused by an attack, and as many as 62% reported disruptions and downtime in operation. In 2018, two extremely important safety laws will enter into force; the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the EU NIS Directive. According to the report, only 34% of Polish enterprises are prepared to implement these regulations, of which only 3% have achieved full readiness for implementation. The situation is worrying (only

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8% of enterprises are ‘mature’ in terms of information security) and one should ask why cybersecurity is so marginalized by business owners. The report very accurately likens the behaviour of entrepreneurs to playing a risky game; ‘the problem will solve itself’ or ‘this doesn’t concern me’, while the statistics are merciless. To understand the scale of the problem, it is important to realize that cyber-attacks occur daily in very large numbers, and virtually everyone is at risk. The data made available while logging into various websites is constantly exposed to theft. While the loss of data such as age, gender or the email address itself may be harmless and will only result in receiving unwanted messages in the mailbox, losing sensitive data, such as a credit card number, can be a serious problem. The 2020 attacks by WannaCry and Petya, or other infamous hacking groups, caused significant financial losses. Various types of websites were attacked: eBay, Uber, JP Morgan Chase and Adobe. The biggest data theft was the hacking of Yahoo! servers in the years 2013–2014. During this time, the data of 3 billion customers was stolen. Admitting a data leak reduced the price of Yahoo! (which was sold) by several hundred million dollars. Another high-profile example of hacking, which was much more inconvenient for users, was the attack on Sony’s servers, namely the Playstation Network. Login details of 77 million users were stolen, along with passwords and possibly credit card numbers. The service was down for a month causing great frustration and a loss of confidence in Sony. 90% of air accidents are caused by human error. In case of cyber attacks, the percentage is lower but still ranks first in terms of cause. The average user is inadvertently exposed to so-called Phishing (impersonating e.g. a bank’s website demanding a password change) or installing malware by opening a message with an intriguing title. Some websites have scripts that install malware in the background. There is also something called ransomware which encodes and blocks access to data and applications—a hacker then requires a ransom to unlock access. Hackers work in various ways and the inattention of a person using the internet can cause great losses for the company and also for the user. The PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report indicated that 41% of security incidents are caused by user error. However, in analyzing individual cases, one can conclude that the percentage is much higher. A phishing attack or a social engineering attack are also caused by human error. The only remedy is to increase the awareness of both users and those responsible for IT security in the company but, above all, management boards and directors of given units (Fig. 10.2). The consequences of such attacks can be dire. The previously mentioned 44% of Polish companies that suffered financial losses is one possible result. Loss of important company data, delays in the implementation of deliveries and services, or leakage of customer data may additionally result in the loss of trust, which may be irreversible. Due to the high number of attacks and losses that are often difficult to estimate (not necessarily financial), there is a need to develop risk management systems and collect information about security incidents. Gaining the ability to accurately assess the costs and effects of security violations can constitute the basis for effective management of the company’s security and justify increasing expenditure on the development of security.

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Fig. 10.2 Causes of security incidents (source: PwC 2018 Report)

It is very disturbing to learn that only 3–5% of companies’ IT budgets are allocated to security. When we look at the technologies that will become the investment priority of Polish companies in the next 3 years, it turns out that the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and robotics will play a dominant role, i.e. very advanced technologies, useful both in industry and in everyday life. Considering that companies do not declare a significant change in security outlays, it can be concluded that we will observe the widening of the gap between the developing technology supporting business and the slowly changing (in extreme cases, not changing at all) cybersecurity of the company. From the very beginning the pace of technological development was emphasized with its constantly increasing speed and the use of methods from the last decade to combat the current challenges poses a serious threat to the ICT security of companies. Big Data security looks similar. In the case of cloud computing, only 27% of the surveyed companies have a security strategy, with 17% planning to develop it within the next year. Usually, companies do not make their company’s digital resources available for private devices, even to increase work efficiency. It is worth noting that only in 13% of companies a necessary condition to be able to use corporate resources on a private device is the installation of MDM software (Mobile Device Management). These applications allow for the establishment of a secure connection and identify the device in the corporate network. A similar need to introduce the highest security standards can be seen in Smart City solutions; these standards should be introduced from the very beginning of such standardization. It is necessary for IT solutions to be considered safe by the public. Intelligent home management systems, traffic lights, traffic organization—any smart

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solution can be exposed to cyber-attacks. The need to take cybersecurity seriously could be evidenced by the fact that it is now possible to take control of a car. The most famous case related to the Tesla Model S electric car when a Chinese team took control of all the car’s electronics. From a distance of 12 miles, they could control seats, mirrors, wipers, sunroof and most importantly—brakes. Other cases where cars were taken over to a greater or lesser extent involved Jeep, Nissan and Mitsubishi. It doesn’t take too much imagination to visualize what would happen if attacks like this happened in the middle of the day on a busy downtown street. These cases are countless and refer to every element of Smart City. Therefore, cybersecurity is one of the key issues in both Industry 4.0 and Smart Cities, and the work and implementation standards are very similar.

10.3.1 Beacons, Geolocation and Augmented Reality Beacons and contactless technologies are revolutionizing today’s reality, as evidenced by their implementations in many industries. For the first time, businesses and brands can communicate with their audiences based on their real-time location or distance from specific objects. So what is the socalled Beacon, or actually ‘BLE Beacon’? It is a small device equipped with a processor, transmitter and battery. It can be compared to a lighthouse, which, instead of a signal with light, sends its unique code via Bluetooth Low Energy. It is the latest standard of Bluetooth technology known for years, characterized by very low energy consumption, allowing such a beacon to operate for years on one watch battery. A recipient with their Bluetooth on, with permission to receive notifications, will receive such a signal and see the message or get redirected to the website of the dedicated application of the sender of such a signal. An additional advantage is the fact that the content of such messages is stored in the cloud. Thanks to this solution, it will not be necessary to download the application (e.g. from a store) every time a new promotion appears. Beacons have become extremely popular in recent years as their entire infrastructure is based on the Bluetooth system; it is a simple mechanism for sending notifications over short distances. The costs are low and Bluetooth-enabled devices are universal (over 90% of smartphones). In recent years, there has been a very strong increase in interest in geolocation. GPS available in phones is increasingly accurate and some devices use both the GPS and the Glonass system (the Russian equivalent of the American GPS) which increases their accuracy. The development of the European Galileo system will allow for even more precise determination of a position because it will determine it both on the horizontal and vertical plane. The accuracy of this system is supposed to reach 1 cm. Geolocation is and will be used more and more often in many areas, ranging from games, educational applications to personalized advertisements, coupons or loyalty programs in large clothing brands.

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Beacons are not only used for marketing, commercial and entertainment purposes. In the case of Smart Cities, beacons and geolocation can have many uses. For example, a person at a train station in a foreign city, doesn’t speak the language and wants to get somewhere or change trains. If the train station has beacons installed, the passenger then connects to the designated application, which determines that he is standing in front of, for example, a kiosk. He then chooses a language which he understands and finds all the information needed to continue the journey. In Poland, there’s the ‘Everytap’ application which uses beacons located in partner restaurants and bars. Passing by one of these places, the device catches the signal from the beacon and sends information about the nearby premises along with the offer. The possibilities of using beacons are unlimited, and the information sent to the user is determined by the owner of the beacon. They are already used in the following areas: • Tracking: One of the more practical uses of beacons is not so obvious. In production and transport, a manager must know where goods are at any given moment. By attaching beacons, he can obtain such information at any time. He can also check the history of the movement of the batch going back days, weeks or months, which helps to improve logistics. • Navigation: Whilst in the open, GPS (or other satellite navigation system) allow you to pinpoint your position and find the way to your destination. The beacon system can also be ‘indoor GPS’. The GPS signal is sometimes disturbed and inaccurate when we find ourselves in a large building—what can help is a localization beacon providing all the necessary information. Places in which such a solution can be used are large shopping centres, airports, sports halls, stations, metro stations, hospitals, museums. • Interaction: Beacons can affect the automation of certain events. For example, when entering a room equipped with a beacon, a projector displaying some information may turn on automatically. They might send notifications or act as a loyalty card when you pass near your favourite coffee shop. When buying coffee, the beacon registers that the user has been there, which allows adjustment of the promotion and collection of points, as in the quoted Everytap application. • Security: Beacons can send threat notifications directly to interested users. Whether it’s people walking into the wrong wing of a hospital or alerting factory workers to new dangers in certain places—once again, the possibilities are endless. When combined with geofencing (Geofencing, a term that refers to software tools or applications that use a Global Positioning System (GPS) or Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) system to establish a virtual perimeter or a physical barrier around a geographic area), it can create an additional security layer. • Analysis: Data is one of the most important tools in a company. Beacons allow the collection of data or create databases which provide information about customer behaviour, places he goes and at what times, or if there is a common problem on the production line. Data obtained in this way can be an invaluable source of information for a company. The experiments started a few years ago, but the real boom for the augmented reality (AR) was triggered by the game Pokemon GO, in which the user walked

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around an actual city and collected virtual Pokemons for his collection. The application encouraged people to walk around the city in search of unique creatures from the world of the cult Japanese fantasy The statistics of this app are stunning. 100 million downloads for Android devices only, with 80% of the application users making at least one purchase (the game is free; however, it is possible to buy various add-ons in the game using micropayments). The turnover was over a billion dollars. All of these numbers create a great impression, and it is no wonder that the use of augmented reality grabbed the attention of developers. However, the use of AR cannot be limited to the entertainment industry. The idea that this technology could change the way people play games in the future is wrong, as it will change not only the entertainment industry but also the way we move around the city. A good example is the ‘OZE Path’ located at the KEZO Research Center of the Polish Academy of Sciences. On the path there are ‘stones’. After downloading the application, the user who approaches such a stone can see a virtual model by using the camera on his phone. He can also see its operation on the screen of his smartphone or tablet. At least a few companies (Google, Apple, Asus) are working on glasses that will display information in real-time, also in AR mode. Again, the possibilities are practically unlimited and the future will show to what extent this technology will be used. At the moment, it is being developed in terms of entertainment, which is not particularly surprising looking at the income generated by Pokemon GO.

10.3.2 Cloud Computing Cloud Computing, commonly known as Cloud, is associated primarily with additional space for photos, documents or videos stored on an external server, thanks to which we have access to this data from many places and on many devices. In fact, this is only a small percentage of the possibilities that this technology offers us [6]. Cloud computing is not a new concept. It emerged in the 1960s as RJE (Remote Job Entry) and evolved along with hardware to take on its present shape at the beginning of the new millennium. Amazon in 2006 and Google in 2008 both launched their first beta versions of cloud services. In 2011, they were joined by Apple, which launched its iCloud based on Amazon Web Services (now Amazon S3) and Microsoft Azure. In 2016, Apple signed an agreement with Google that some iCloud services can use the resources of Google Cloud Platform. So what exactly is ‘Cloud Computing’? There are several definitions which are not so much mutually exclusive as complementary. According to IBM, Cloud Computing is a usage model (IT) and computing style in which business processes, applications, data and IT resources are delivered to users in the form of services. Wikipedia defines Cloud Computing as a type of internet-based data-processing model where shared resources, software and information are delivered to computers and other devices on demand; just like electricity. Polish Wikipedia has elaborated on this definition somewhat. Cloud computing is a data processing model based on the use of services available through a provider (internal department or external organization). Cloud

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is a service (giving the user added value) offered by a given software (and required infrastructure). This means elimination of the necessity to purchase a license or to install and administer software. The consumer pays for the use of a specific service, e.g. the use of a spreadsheet. He does not need to purchase any hardware or software. A contract concluded for the provision of cloud computing services is usually not created for a specific entity, but includes a package of standardized solutions. The term “cloud computing” is related to the concept of virtualization. On the other hand, Professor Kenneth Chellapa, who first used the term in 1997, defined it as a processing paradigm in which the limits of processing would result from economic justification and not from technical constraints. What are the benefits of this solution? Firstly, the user will spend less money. According to the European Commission report, it represents approximately 20% of IT spending in a company. The recipient buys access to the programs and applications that he needs, whenever he needs them. There is no need to invest in licenses for programs that are used only occasionally. There is also no need to invest in expensive computer equipment, as the calculations are then performed on the service provider’s workstations. There are several models of cloud computing, below, I will focus only on the main ones: Colocation is the oldest form of this type of service. It consists of renting an external space in the server room. The provider accommodates the server, pays rent for the room, electricity bills, maintenance, service etc. The recipient pays only for the use of these resources. Software as a service (SAAS) This gives an advantage to the companies that do not want to buy expensive software licenses. Thanks to this, it is possible for the company to use the software from the very beginning with a minimal financial contribution. The software is available from virtually any computer connected to the network. Data is secured even if the computer is damaged, as it is located on external servers (protected against hacking and data loss through backups). Most importantly, this service can be adapted to the needs of the recipient, so usually there is no need to purchase all the capabilities of a given software, only those functionalities that are required in the recipient’s company. Infrastructure as a service (IAAS). This provides companies with access to IT resources, including servers, networking, disk space or access to the data centre on a pay-per-use basis (pay as you use). The benefits are primarily economic, since the recipient does not have to invest in extremely expensive equipment, and the service is adapted to the needs. Platform as a service (PAAS)—this provides the environment required to develop and support the entire lifecycle of networked software and applications, without the cost of managing software, network services, licenses, and hosting. Thanks to this, the user can immediately get down to business and bring his product to the market much faster (sometimes releasing new software in a matter of minutes) and more effectively. After several years of Cloud Computing on the market, it is hard to imagine that this solution would not be used in solutions for both industry and Smart City. The main common benefits are:

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• Flexibility—the ability to adapt as needed, both up and down. • Savings—services are measurable (by the so-called Metering) so the client pays only for the services ordered and used. • Self-service—Everything is available immediately and you can manage the environment yourself. There are no costs associated with customer service and waiting times. There are two more terms related to the concept of Cloud Computing which should be clarified to further outline the role that cloud computing technology can play in Smart Cities. The first is the concept of FOG Computing, the second is Blockchain technology. Due to the enormous amount of data submitted for analysis (more about Big Data later on), submitting the entire data to cloud computing is not always a good solution, and sometimes even impossible. Clouds also have their limitations. That is why the FOG Computing technology was developed; in FOG Computing some of the data remains in the infrastructure and on the user’s devices. You can say that FOG (from English: Fog) is located between the user and the cloud (hence the name). FOG uses edge devices such as routers, switches, Integrated Access Devices (IADs), or any other network device that connects a local area network (LAN) to a wide area network (WAN). This enables faster connectivity, better mobility, lower bandwidth requirements and greater network security. There are some delays when using the cloud. Sending and receiving large-scale processed data is often a slow process and results in limited bandwidth as well as security risks. In order to do this, the connection must be sufficiently fast and stable. Fog computing is therefore an ideal solution in situations where data transfer to the cloud would negatively affect performance and lead to disconnecting the network, for example in less urbanized areas with underdeveloped network infrastructure (Fig. 10.3). An example of the application of FOG Computing can be found in the automotive industry. In the case of autonomous cars, it will even be indispensable. Millions of cars will be equipped with numerous sensors and automatic systems for driving, parking and sending weather alerts, for example. The huge amount of data which would be generated by these systems would make it impossible to send it to the cloud and receive a response in a satisfactory time (in the case of a car it is “immediately”). FOG already makes it possible. FOG can also be used to reduce traffic congestion, support drone deliveries, monitoring or intelligent buildings, i.e. all areas requiring real-time analysis of large amounts of data. By being able to support multiple industries and applications over edge networks, these systems become more flexible, cost-effective, secure and scalable. The second technology is even more timely. Everyone has already come across the term “Bitcoin”; not always understanding what it is about. However, the terms “cryptocurrencies” or “blockchain” are entering business dictionaries around the world with great impetus. So what is this mysterious technology called “Blockchain”? It is a chain made out of the so-called Blocks, used to store and transmit information about transactions concluded on the Internet; they are arranged in the form of

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Fig. 10.3 Cloud computing [original drawing of the author of the monograph]

consecutive data blocks. One block contains information about a certain number of transactions and, after it gets saturated with information, another block of data is created, followed by another and the next, creating a kind of chain. On average, a new block, in which information about various transactions can be sent, appears every 10 min. The information could be, for example, trade, ownership, shares, stocks, electricity generation, purchase or sale of currencies, including the already mentioned cryptocurrencies. The goal of the creators is to maintain a common and collective ledger of transactions, but in digital form, with copies of it scattered throughout the network. This technology is based on a peer-to-peer network, i.e. user-to-user, and takes place without central computers and without systems managing and verifying the transactions. Each computer connected to the network can participate in the transmission and authentication of transactions. The ledger is open to everyone but fully secured against unauthorized access by complex cryptographic tools. The user can view only his transactions. The transactions are public, but only the given user has access to them. The transaction register offered by the blockchain cannot be edited, which means that once saved, data remains in the block and it is not possible to change it. The history can be viewed from the very beginning of the blockchain’s existence up to the current transactions, which allows access and verification at any time. How can blockchain technology relate to Smart Cities? Cryptocurrencies are very popular, so this topic will not be included in this study. But there are more examples, and Bitcoin or other currencies are only a “side effect” of this technology. Some countries are already preparing to transfer their land and mortgage registers to the blockchain. This will protect property rights in the event of a failure of the IT system and destruction of paper documents as a result of, for example, fire, war or

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other random events. Also, access to the land and mortgage register of a facility would be much easier. Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) are accounting databases. All accounting records can be placed in a safe environment, resistant to cyberattacks and immune to hardware failures thanks to a decentralized structure. Another example may be a record of stock transactions, but in fact, it can be used to collect and fully secure storage of large amounts of data.

10.3.3 Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence is a topic that ignites the imagination of many fields. Debates on artificial intelligence are present in mainstream media, business and scientific talks and even in the entertainment sector, for instance books, games and movies. As technology develops at an alarming pace there are discussions which held on a philosophical and existential level. They are attended by people both related to the world of science and technology (Prof. Stephen Hawking, who died recently, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg or Ray Kurzweil) and religion (Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi, chairman of the Pontifical Council for Culture). It finds both ardent supporters and opponents. Some defend the technology, listing the countless benefits it can bring to humanity and others have a much darker vision where artificial intelligence develops too fast and humanity loses control over it. So what is this sinister yet brilliant technology? In pop culture, AI usually takes an anthropomorphic or tangible form. Is it a beautiful woman like in the independent movie ‘Ex Machina’; an organization managing the entire network infrastructure like Skynet in the movie ‘Terminator’, or the supercomputer HAL9000 in ‘A Space Odyssey 2001’? Artificial Intelligence, however, is nothing but an algorithm. It is a complicated code, able to react to the task that is given to it. It will be possible to talk about an actual artificial intelligence only when the algorithm becomes selfaware. It is difficult to define self-awareness, because discussions on this concept include, among others, the fields of philosophy, psychology or neurobiology. However, it can be assumed that AI will be aware of its existence as a separate being and will be self-preserving while acting in its own interest. The algorithm includes so-called “machine learning”, i.e. the ability of a given algorithm to “learn” new things and solutions. For example, the chess algorithm learns to play along with successive games. It may lose a game after its opponent’s brilliant move because it was unable to predict it. However, in subsequent games, it will not make the same mistake, because it will “learn” how to prevent this move. The Turing test allows us to determine how advanced the communication algorithm is. The test, proposed in 1950 by Alan Turing, is based on the fact that the judge—human, conducts a conversation in everyday language with other participants, both people and artificial intelligence. The judge’s job is to determine whether he is talking to a machine or a human. If the judge is not able to clearly determine whether he is talking to a man or a machine—the “interlocutor” passes the test. Technology is developing constantly and at a very fast pace. What until recently seemed

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to be a script for a sciencefiction movie, now occurs in everyday life. Focusing on technologies using AI in Smart Cities and Industry 4.0, it is worth mentioning at least a few of those existing currently and those planned in the near future. Also, the basic theses of the discussion on AI, showing the position of both supporters and opponents of the development of artificial intelligence, along with the benefits and threats. The first example of artificial intelligence are games, more specifically chess and GO. These 2 games have always been considered to require great concentration, sense of anticipation, intelligence and knowledge. It is easy to learn the rules of both games but to become a master you need to spend thousands of hours practising and learning. Therefore, it was believed that a computer which only calculates the probability and does not have an ‘instinct’ would never win against a human. They were wrong and while in chess the computer has long surpassed human capabilities (in 1997 the Deep Blue computer defeated grandmaster Garri Kasparov) and though it is no longer possible to defeat artificial intelligence in chess, the Asian game GO remained on the human-AI battlefield. Until recently, it was argued that due to the unique nature of the game, it would not be possible for the algorithm to defeat humans as GO has a much higher branching factor which makes it difficult to use traditional AI methods such as alpha–beta, tree traversal and heuristic searches. Everything started to change in 2015 when DeepMind’s AlphaGO program first beat Fan Hui, a pro player, and the following year defeated the GO 9 Dan Korean Grandmaster Lee Sedol, by 4–1. The next version of AlphaGo has been made available to the best players in the world. It won all duels, keeping the balance 60-0. Device speech recognition is nothing new. As early as 1962, IBM introduced the Shoebox—a device capable of recognizing 16 words in English. Nine years later, IBM introduced the speech recognition system, which also suited the engineers operating the system. The first commercial use of a speech recognition system, basically machine learning, was presented in … a toy. More specifically, in the Julie Doll. It was in 1989 and the child was able to “teach” the doll to answer some questions. Since then, technology has been increasingly introduced for everyday use, and it became the standard for phones in 2011 when Apple introduced the SIRI feature. Nowadays, no one is surprised by voice recognition and the technology continues to develop at an incredible pace; the current software is already able to conduct a conversation with the user. Voice-controlled household? This is not the future, but the present, as shown by Amazon’s voice assistant Alexa, first introduced to the world in 2014. An example of technology in business is the product presented by the Polish company VoiceTel Communications S.A. on March 22 in Warsaw. Currently, when we call a service company, we have to go through the tedious process of selecting the topic of the conversation on the numeric keypad. The Dialla communication robot avoids this procedure by allowing the client to talk to an “automatic assistant” who understands what is being said to her and answers the questions asked. The company presented a phone call to the Lech Walesa Airport in Gdansk, where the application is being tested. The caller asked what time is the flight to Copenhagen—the time did not match so she asked about the next flight. The machine remembered the information

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from the earlier conversation and related to it. Conducting such a conversation is much more convenient than taking the phone from the ear, tone dialling the number and wading through the “tree” of options to choose from. After we use it for some time, we will see in what direction this technology will develop and whether it will be adopted at all. There are also ‘Chatbots’—algorithms for recognizing written conversations; they work on the same principle but are simplified. They are most widely used in online stores or service providers’ websites (e.g. mobile telephony or television). The algorithm is able to answer most of the questions asked by the customers. If there is no answer, the chatbot will redirect to a live operator. Today, Artificial Intelligence is entering areas that, until recently, seemed available only to humans. Now, you can see the effects of algorithms in creating art. Digitally generated images, music, poems often confuse the untrained eye or ear and seem like human creations. Extensive studies can be written about technologies that use AI. They are used every day, even without our knowledge, and despite many warnings, it is impossible not to appreciate the advantages offered by artificial intelligence. More and more new applications are discovered for algorithms that facilitate everyday life, especially for the smart city inhabitant. There are so many of them that it is virtually impossible to list them all. Starting from traffic management, through the use of AI in health care as a diagnostic tool, to the safety of residents, e.g. replacing tired eyes of security guards during their shifts. Developed artificial intelligence algorithms will also be used in transport, especially in autonomous cars, where real-time data analysis and the immediate reaction of the algorithm will be a key safety factor. How many times have we come across a washing machine ad displaying on a news site’s main page while we were looking for a new one just 2 days earlier? Google “learns” what we search for, to later match us with appropriate ads. Services such as Netflix or Spotify operate on the same principle and present further proposals based on our previous choices. On the one hand, it is very convenient, but on the other hand, it’s a little disturbing and can make us feel uneasy. While we think we keep our lives private, the data flowing to Google allows to create a fairly accurate user profile, what we like, what we are interested in, etc. On the surface, this is not dangerous, because we think that this information cannot be important on a scale of hundreds of millions of people. However, user profiling not only leads to recommending a vacuum cleaner as the recent scandal involving Facebook and Cambridge Analytica has shown. This former British company specialized in political consulting. Using the released application “thisisyourdigitallife”, it unlawfully collected data on 87 million Facebook users, and then performed thorough profiling. The information obtained made it possible both to manage advertising campaigns for goods and services, as well as, according to accusations that were brought against the company in March 2018, to gain the upper hand in Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. These threats are shared even by those who develop and deal with new technologies on a daily basis. It should be added that none of the people mentioned is opposed to AI or its development, instead, they emphasize responsibility and control over it. Elon Musk often speaks about the threat posed by artificial intelligence. He often speaks in the media, providing arguments to be careful about the development of

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this technology, and above all, warning against putting full confidence in it. His terming of AI as ‘a fundamental risk to the existence of our civilization’ unleashed a media storm. The creator of Facebook—Mark Zuckerberg joined the discussion and took the opposite position to Musk. His vision of AI were applications that save people’s lives through the diagnosis and treatment of diseases, and autonomous cars that ensure no fatal accidents. It did not take long for Elon Musk to respond, because the very next day he posted on his Twitter: ‘I talked to Mark about this. His understanding of the situation is limited’. Bill Gates said: ‘I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence. First the machines will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be positive if we manage it well. A few decades after that though the intelligence is strong enough to be a concern. I agree with Elon Musk and others on this matter, and I don’t understand why others are not concerned.’ Stephen Hawking, a prominent astrophysicist and theoretical physicist, also warned against the lack of control over artificial intelligence. “Today, we cannot fully predict what will happen when our mind, our intelligence is additionally strengthened by the power of AI. Perhaps the new tools that we will gain thanks to this technological revolution will allow us to compensate for the damage caused to the natural environment by industrialization. Perhaps we will find a way to eradicate disease and poverty. We must now investigate all the ramifications of the development of artificial intelligence. This is crucial for our civilization and the future of our species”. Ray Kurzweil is a futurologist and specialist in the field of AI; he included all the unknowns and the potential of artificial intelligence in one sentence. He said it would be enough for one computer in the world to achieve “personality” (or selfawareness) for all human problems in the world to be solved or to destroy all humanity. Kurzweil is a promoter of the idea of transhumanism—an intellectual, cultural and political movement that postulates the possibility and need (but not the necessity) of using science and technology to overcome human limitations and improve the human condition. This applies in particular to neurotechnology, biotechnology and nanotechnology. Kurzweil does not offer black scenarios like Elon Musk does, but rather tries to predict the direction in which the development of artificial intelligence will go, presenting potential solutions such as an artificial cerebral cortex or connecting into a neural network of brains in order to increase their efficiency. The subject of the debate itself is unsolvable. Everyone can have their own opinion on this subject; however, it should be taken into account that we all shape our future and our decisions determine the direction in which the development and control over AI will go. Whether it will be a nuclear holocaust or longevity or even immortality will only be shown by the passage of time. One thing is for sure—AI like any other tool, should be used responsibly.

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10.3.4 Big Data and Data Analysis We live in the age of data. Big Data is an area that has recently attracted a lot of interest from academia and the community related to the IT sector. The amount of digitally generated and stored data has increased rapidly in the last few years. As a result, such amounts of data have caused some new challenges to arise. The problem is very complex, but I will not try to explain or present the entirety of issues related to Big Data. I will only demonstrate the most important aspects, taking into account the specificity of the application in Smart Cities and Industry 4.0 [6]. In industry, data is often used to increase work efficiency, shorten production and delivery times and, above all, to manage production in order to increase economic efficiency. However, data use in the Smart Cities area can significantly affect the comfort of the life of residents. Big Data and data analysis (especially those using Cloud and Fog technologies) combined with artificial intelligence, are key in creating the foundations of a city management system in every field. The use of Big Data in smart cities enables effective data processing and storage to obtain information, stimulating the development of other services in terms of smart cities. In addition, Big Data helps decision-makers in planning the development of certain areas and managing the resources of a smart city. Appropriate tools are needed to fully use the potential of Big Data and methods of effective data management. They can encourage cooperation and dialogue between different entities and provide comprehensive services to many sectors, as well as improve the experience and increase opportunities in both private and professional life. The rapid development of Big Data and the Internet of Things technology has played an important role in the development opportunities for Smart Cities initiatives. Big Data offers cities the potential to obtain invaluable information from a huge amount of data collected by various means, and the use of IoT allows the integration of sensors, RFI and Bluetooth in a real environment. The sources that generate data begin with a smart home (allowing them to be used on a microscale), through energy consumption data (which allows the optimization of energy demand management and control transmissions), to monitoring data or personal data. Today, thanks to the widespread use of smartphones, when using Google Maps, the company collects information from users and shows in real-time where they can expect increased traffic, traffic jams, proposed detours, etc. Using the right tools to centrally manage such data can provide invaluable information which helps the city to develop faster, more efficiently and sustainably. In order for this to occur, we need solutions dedicated to the analysis of large amounts of data in a sufficiently short time. Since the concept of a Smart City places great emphasis on the application of new-generation information technologies to all spheres of life, sensors collecting data are used almost everywhere e.g. in hospitals, power plants, power grids, roads, tracks, bridges, tunnels, water, dams, pipelines and buildings. By combining all of these things it’s possible to form the Internet of Things. The data is then collected, stored and processed in an efficient way to provide all the necessary information needed for the continued sustainable development of the city, as well as providing citizens with higher quality and more tailored services.

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As you can see, technologies are intertwined and complement each other. Without fast broadband internet, it would be impossible to send such amounts of data to central management. Without appropriate hardware and software, it would not be possible to analyze and implement this data in Smart Cities solutions. This is where another key piece of the puzzle comes in, namely Systems Integration.

10.3.5 Systems Integration This study focuses on the pace in which technology is developing, and highlights the role this has on systems integration. It causes the appearance of a large number of products or new systems that are not necessarily compatible with each other. Systems integration is the process of bringing these systems together so that they can use each other’s resources, such as files or devices. While competition stimulates the development of technology, the incompatibility of devices can be very burdensome for the user. Therefore, system integration is slowly becoming indispensable. Take an example from everyday life; until recently, phones from different manufacturers had different charging sockets. It was only with the advent of smartphones that the input was standardized and phones with Android or Windows Phone were equipped with a USB output. Only Apple remained faithful to its own solutions; however, Apple’s products and development philosophy should be treated in slightly different terms. The incompatibility of some files between Windows and iOS platforms is also disappearing. Despite working on different systems, an increasing number of programs use formats that can be run on both platforms [7–13]. What goal do we expect to achieve when integrating IT systems? First of all, we create the synergy effect, i.e. the benefit of combining these systems is greater than the sum of the benefits of having individual systems operating separately. What benefits is system integration intended to bring? It brings data consistency which means that it does not need to be duplicated in many systems. Putting a customer database in three different programs means doing the same job three times. Thanks to the integration of systems, the employee’s work becomes easier, for example, there is no need to apply or modify information in many places, because the integrated system applies these changes automatically. It creates comfort and convenience and saves money, which increases the efficiency of the company. The lack of boundaries between systems means that data or other information stored in databases can be used in many ways, creating reports, summaries, etc. An unquestionable advantage is also the unlimited flow of information between different areas of the company, i.e. the use of, for example, accounting data in the marketing department. System integration can be divided into two types. The first type is full two-way integration— both systems exchange data with each other with no constraints. Unfortunately, this is not always possible due to closed structure and an inability to integrate. In this case so-called One-way integration is needed. Information from one or more systems goes to the integrating system and only then it can provide the user with processed data. It is a less convenient form of integration, but sometimes the only

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one possible. The use of system integration is crucial, for example in smart factories. These are modular plants where cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes. They create virtual copies of the physical world and make decentralized decisions based on the mechanisms of self-organization. Through the Internet of Things, cyberphysical systems communicate and cooperate with each other and with people in real-time, and, through the Internet of Services, both internal and external services are offered and used by participants in the value network. In other words, smart factories are plants where cyber-physical systems communicate with each other via the Internet of Things and assist people and machines in carrying out their tasks. In Smart Cities, as well as in modern production processes aimed at meeting the assumptions of Industry 4.0, system integration is of key importance. Free flow of information, data unification, full use of the potential and shortening the time spent on data entry are just some of the aspects necessary for the proper functioning of a modern, sustainable city and company.

10.3.6 Simulations While simulations are particularly useful in industry, they may also turn out to be invaluable when planning further Smart Cities implementations—they may prove to be an indispensable tool for the effective functioning of the city. Simulation is a mapping of processes taking place in the real environment (e.g. industrial equipment, nature, business), describing them in the form of an algorithm executed as computer software or through a physical model. The main advantages of simulation include a significant acceleration of testing technical solutions for a given environment and lowering costs. The simulation also allows for the analysis of various scenarios of the system’s behaviour or its behaviour in specific situations. The simulation does not always fully reflect all aspects of a given process or situation, and it can even be stated to be a simplification of reality, therefore a conscious and critical approach to the obtained results is important. However, it already plays a key role in planning. In industrial processes, simulation is one of the foundations of production and future implementation, while in Smart City you can find many applications, where mapping certain situations can significantly facilitate the work of services, or even prevent accidents. Traffic jams already cost drivers a lot of nerves. Even though the Smart City idea puts a lot of emphasis on public transport and car-sharing, the problem of congested streets will be present for a long time. However, after carrying out accurate simulations of the duration of traffic lights, it turns out that the period of waiting in a traffic jam can be minimized. Similarly, at a mass gathering, it is possible to predict a scenario whereby a large number of cars leave. At a large football match or concert at a stadium full of people, it is possible to effectively simulate traffic diversion, extend and shorten the duration of traffic lights at specific intersections, and minimize the time of traffic congestion. Additionally, it is possible to simulate related pedestrian traffic and even a possible evacuation. In 2016, World Youth Day was held in Brzegi

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near Krakow. A universal program, FlexSim Software, was effectively used to define the safety rules. This sample software made it possible to study the throughput of communication routes, as well as the times in which the designated sectors were occupied. The image on the screen can be freely reduced and enlarged to obtain as much detail as is required to obtain a complete image. This is not the only application of this software, as it can be used for other simulations in the areas of logistics, transport, public transport, road and crossroad capacity, evacuation of any facilities and even management of staff and patients in hospitals. A little more focused on transport and traffic is Autodesk Infraworks 360, which is a digital 3D platform for civil engineers and designers, allowing them to design and communicate design intentions. It can be used to create accurate criteria-based models of roads, bridges or networks; it has many tools to control the created projects/models, such as visibility analysis, checking slopes, checking road capacity or sunlight analysis. The power industry plays an extremely important role in Smart City, as the demand for energy increases with the increasing number of devices. The gradual shift from fossil fuels towards renewable energy requires simulations of the energy demand and proposed solutions. An example of software used for this purpose is “SOFTROL—IT advisory system for model agro-energetic systems” which was created as a result of cooperation between the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Gda´nsk and the University of Warmia and Mazury. The system has many advantages which create various possibilities for its use. Most importantly, each of these possibilities brings measurable benefits to potential users. The most important ones include maximizing the energy efficiency of agriculture—an area important for the economy yet not fully included in the country’s energy balance i.e. the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP). This fact may be surprising, considering that farmers are responsible for 11% of RES investments in Germany. Simulation is used in many fields ranging from production processes in industry, through energy, security, traffic, transport, logistics, urban planning, and health care, not to mention social areas. Thanks to the developing technology, it allows us to check more sparingly whether assumptions are consistent with reality, in a short time. It also allows us to prepare for many scenarios and avoid many complications regarding task implementation.

10.4 Social Aspects of Industry 4.0 Internet of Things, Internet of Services, Internet of Everything—these elements can be considered to link the fourth industrial revolution with the Smart Cities initiative described in the previous chapter. The Industry 4.0 concept can also be treated as a part of the Smart Cities concept. It can be expected that the connections between these systems will change—the transport of processes from the design of logistics to their online optimization concerning the selected goal function and the latest information regarding the transport infrastructure.

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Combining information from the industrial 4.0 system with smart city transport systems can create highly efficient, demand-oriented productivity for manufacturing companies. It will also allow the sustainable development of society. Digitization and the introduction of new technologies are not the goals in themselves. They are intended only as tools to change business models to maintain competitiveness in the market. The people who create this new reality play a major role in these processes, i.e. engineers. Engineer 4.0 is one of the proposed training models for future engineering staff, it presents the requirements and problems that the engineer of the future will face. The differences in approach to the profession are evident from the very beginning, that is, starting from the training of the future engineer. To fully understand the current labour market, several key elements need to be analyzed. The first key is the young, future employees. The Astor report successfully presents the “Millennium Generation” and their successors—so-called “Generation C”. The main factors determining professional success in the future will primarily be: interdisciplinarity and the willingness to learn constantly. Currently existing narrow specializations will become niche, and required only in specific cases, while modern engineers should be prepared to undertake a wide variety of projects in many fields. Generational changes and differences have always existed. This social aspect is very evident in the millenial generation. According to Ericsson ConsumerLab research, this generation is characterized by proficiency and multitasking, ease in adapting to change, and, at the same time, being extremely impatient people. They have a natural talent for cooperation, enjoy teamwork, and create micro-communities often communicating with each other. This is caused by growing up in times of dynamic changes, which has made them more innovative and able to predict the future more accurately than people from earlier generations. On the other hand, contradictory opinions are indicating that “Millennials” cannot make independent decisions, due to the fact that their lives were largely planned by their parents. Now, they expect their employer to set goals for them and help them in their professional development. On the other hand, they value independence and dislike restrictions and barriers. They expect flexible working hours and openness to discussions. This generation is characterized by one more extremely important feature: compared to previous generations, they value their time to a much greater extent, preferring private life to professional life. In connection with the above, it should be expected that the new personnel are open to further education and new challenges. However, the education system can be a barrier, because approved programs or courses require time, and technological progress is so fast that it is impossible to establish a relevant education program at an appropriate pace. Despite this, acquiring new experiences and competences shouldn’t be a problem for the Millenium and ‘Generation C’ engineers. This is the purpose of developing the concept of the so-called ‘learning factories’. It is an informal name for the training and demonstration part of a technological process, whether real or physically simulated. It is assumed that teaching factories will play a decisive role in disseminating, understanding and teaching the ideas and implemented applications of Industry 4.0. Funds are also already being produced by companies preparing

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for the transformation 4.0 under the collective name of ‘Learninstruments’, and by the community of practice. These measures are necessary regarding Industry 4.0. They help to increase the intensity of learning new hardware and software-related content and acquiring new competencies (e.g. by implementing proprietary training programs such as the Engineer Competency Development Program 4.0, developed by Astor and New Motivations). Furthermore, a strong emphasis on self-development and favouring private life over professional life can be used as an asset, not a barrier. Both the ideas of Smart Cities and Industry 4.0 make no sense in isolation from social aspects. Examples are the already implemented projects of intelligent ecoenergy cities, such as Masdar City or The Sustainable City. Masdar City is located several kilometres from Abu Dhabi, while 30 km from Dubai The Sustainable City is being built. It was handed over to residents in 2019. Both cities are fully sustainable; they are built from scratch and are fully supplied with electricity from renewable sources. However, this impressive endeavour missed one key factor, namely the human aspect. Despite enormous expenditures, these cities are not inhabited by ordinary residents, but are, in a way, technology parks. The cities were designed with low emissions in mind—they produce more energy than they consume, and all of it comes from renewable sources such as sun, wind (which is also used to create the natural air-conditioning system of the cities), biomass and geothermal energy. They use the latest waste segregation systems. Biodegradable waste is used as fuel, while nonbiodegradable waste is recycled. All vehicles are powered by electricity (however, some construction machines were not), and CO2 emissions produced during the construction have been offset by increasing the number of green spaces. The cities have been fully metered and pilot projects for autonomous electric taxis have also been introduced. One should also note the enormous funds and resources that have been allocated to the design and construction of these projects. Although prices have fallen by 10–15% since the start of the construction, the invested amount of money, approx. $220 billion, seems impressive. Unfortunately, when planning the energy self-sufficient and clean cities, the most important thing was forgotten—the people who would settle these cities. You can easily rent office space in Masdar City or buy an apartment; prices are not excessive thanks to subsidies. However, settling in the middle of the desert amongst modern technology that people simply do not trust is an insurmountable barrier. Despite ambitious plans, at the moment Masdar City and The Sustainable City can only serve as a demonstration. Although at first glance these cities may seem like failures, they are a valuable training ground for the development of existing cities. They make it clear that the concept of ‘Smart Sustainable City’; is more than technology, that it is impossible to omit residents in the creative process, there has to be dialogue. Modernity and the ecological approach are not enough to cause people to migrate to the desert. The home has to be something more. The list of cities that are already introducing Smart City solutions is constantly growing. And most importantly, it is the grassroots initiatives that result in the greatest success; Amsterdam and London are examples of

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this. Cities like New York, Tokyo or Seoul already look like something from sciencefiction movies and lead in the rankings of the best Smart Cities. Some say that South Korea and Japan are already at the stage of Industry 5.0. Amsterdam has long been trying to introduce as many ecological and smart solutions as possible. In 2016, it won the title of the most innovative city in Europe. In Amsterdam, cooperation of local government with residents is greatly emphasized; it is they who decide on the direction of further development. Amsterdam was one of the first cities to introduce electric garbage trucks, bus shelters covered with PV panels, which power the bus stop, surrounding advertising billboards and even lighting. Thousands of offices and homes are adapted to fully implement the Smart City idea with modernized roof insulation, automatic lighting with economical LED bulbs, and smart meters. Poland is also heading in the right direction, an example of which might be the pilot program for urban lighting management, Phillips City Touch, which was introduced together with the Phillips company in Szczecin. A total of 4,985 Luma luminaires have been installed, 1,888 of which are managed by CityTouch LightWave remote management software. By communicating and managing the individual lighting points in the network, the previous static lighting system has been transformed into an intelligent system controlled from the operator’s computer. Amsterdam is a city full of bicycles and barges. 32% of the total traffic is created by bicycles and 63% of the city’s inhabitants use a bicycle every day. The number of electric car users is growing rapidly (53% growth in 2016), as well as people using car-sharing (an increase of around 300% annually). No wonder that Amsterdam is the city in which the latest amenities for such forms of transport are created, and Amsterdam is known to set the direction of activity in this area. Also, the idea of a smart home using a car as a mobile energy store (V2G—Vehicle to the grid) is in constant development. London, on the other hand, due to its enormous area, is famous for an extensive but also convenient system of public transport and carsharing. In addition, thanks to cooperation with O2 , London introduced the largest free Wi-Fi, which also covers the underground of London, allowing subway passengers to use broadband Internet. London is also home to the Smart Cities Research Center, which studies and implements Smart City solutions to improve the living conditions of residents. The idea of Smart is also introduced to health and waste disposal services. The leaders of the Smart City rankings, apart from Japan and Korea, include cities in the United States such as New York, Boston and San Francisco, and in Europe—Berlin, Paris and Stockholm. However, it is important to note the fact that all these metropolises display a low rate of social cohesion in these rankings (as opposed to smaller cities such as Amsterdam or Stockholm). A large number of inhabitants means huge amounts of data, mental diversity and great financial outlays; therefore some implementations must be spread over time. It is much easier to implement such solutions in smaller cities. In Poland, the idea of Smart City is developing; you can already see the first effects in Szczecin, Warsaw, Jaworzno, and in the Tri-City, where Gdynia is developing dynamically, growing into a leader in terms of ecological public transport,

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and Gda´nsk is a city that puts great emphasis on the development of bicycle transport. There is also an emphasis on the relationship with inhabitants; not merely on introducing technology for the sake of it.

10.5 Industry 4.0 and Business Even though Industry 4.0 is most often associated with digitization and with strong emphasis on IT technologies, the changes affect entire business models. While Industry 4.0 is usually mentioned in a technological context, it also introduces changes in companies at both strategic and operational level. The producer-customer relationship is also changing. However, the implementation of the entire idea of Industry 4.0 depends to the greatest extent on the company’s management and their understanding of the need for these changes. In 1985, Michael Porter released the bestseller titled ‘Competitive Advantage’. In the book he describes, among other things, the value chain that a company should apply in a given industry to gain a competitive advantage. This model functioned for many years; however, present times require change and adaptation to the digital age. Nowadays, integration occurs in two dimensions: vertical and horizontal. In the vertical dimension, it is possible to integrate the processes within a given company even more closely. Starting from R&D departments through production or logistics to marketing. It is possible due to the availability of data on processes and production, among other things, which in turn enables comprehensive management of product life and assets. On the other hand, the horizontal dimension optimizes logistics and production processes and increases the quality of planning through the use of intelligent IT systems that are able to track the flow of raw materials and products and then manage them. The availability of large amounts of data also enables sharing of information between the organization and its contractors but also customers and companies in the distribution network. All of these aspects allow the implementation of new business models. An example of a popular model, which is also used by industry, is the product-as-a-service mentioned earlier. It reduces investment costs, replacing them with operational ones—subscription, leasing, etc. For example, instead of buying industrial robots, these machines can be rented, and instead of investing in expensive 3D printers, companies can use the increasingly available additive printing services. New opportunities also arise in the provision of services, for example in the field of data analytics and machine park management. In most cases, these are made possible by the use of digital data exchange technology and internet communication. An important feature of Industry 4.0 is mass personalization. In times of globalization and mass production, people are looking for something that will make them stand out, whether it’s an apartment, a piece of furniture, a car or a piece of clothing. Mass personalization has already been introduced, to the factories of Adidas and Reebok for example. The customer, on entering the website and placing an order, can choose the model and size of shoes, and also add something to them. Whether it’s

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a name, a colour change or the addition of some special decorative element, all this is possible thanks to the personalization options, which are either free or available through an additional, small charge. All of this is possible thanks to the new value chain created by the companies, which optimizes production, delivery and storage of materials from the moment the customer places an order. This saves materials and decreases the customer’s waiting time. A personalized shoe can be delivered to its new owner within 3–5 days from the date of ordering on the website. Not long ago, this was a small convenience and curiosity for individualists but is slowly becoming a standard; other footwear manufacturers are introducing such a possibility thanks to the ever-wider access to Industry 4.0 tools. However, the key aspect of introducing amenities along with expanding the offer is understanding the market needs.

Industry 4.0 is mainly a knowledgeable management of resources using the latest IT solutions closely coupled with changes in human behavior.

References 1. M. Lom, O. Pribyl, T. Zelinka, System Engineering for Smart Cities (WMSCI 2016, Orlando) 2. M. Hermann, T. Pentek, B. Otto, Design Principles for Industrie 4.0 Scenarios (3 February 2015) 3. V. Koch, S. Kuge, R. Geissbauer, S. Schrauf, Industry 4.0: Opportunities and Challenges of the Industrial Internet (PwC and Strategy, 2014) 4. T.Litman, Autonomous vehicle implementation predictions: implications for transport planning, inTransportation Research Board 94th Annual Meeting. No. 15-3326 (2015) 5. Cyber-ruletka po Polsku. Dlaczego firmy w walce z cyberprzest˛epcami licz˛a na szcz˛es´cie. raport 5 edycja Badania Stanu Bezpiecze´nstwa Informacji, 2018 PwC Polska Sp. z o.o. 6. J. Łagowski, Cloud Computing—Co to jest? (IBM Polska, XVI Konferencja PLOUG, Ko´scielisko Pa´zdziernik 2010) 7. R. Geissbauer, S. Schrauf, V. Koch, S. Kuge, Industry 4.0—Opportunities and Challenges of the Industrial Internet (Study published by PwC, 2014) 8. I.A.T. Hashem, V. Chang, N.B. Anuar, K. Adewole, I. Yaqoob, A. Gani, E. Ahmed, H. Chiroma (2016) The role of big data in smart city. Int. J. Inf. Manag. 36, 748–758 (2016) 9. M. Batty, K.W. Axhausen, F. Giannotti, A. Pozdnoukhov, A. Bazzani, M. Wachowicz, G. Ouzounis, Y. Portugali et al., Smart cities of the future. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 214(1), 481–518 (2012) 10. J. Mikulik, Wizja bezpiecznego Smart City. Nap˛edy i Sterowanie 6 (czerwiec 2017 11. I. Yaqoob, I.A.T. Hashema, A. Gania, S. Mokhtara, E. Ahmeda, N.B. Anuara, A.V. Vasilakos, Big data: From beginning to future. Int. J. Inf. Manag. 36(6), Part B, 1231–1247 (2016) 12. R. Szewczyk, J. Gracel, A. Szerling, J. Kowalczyk, E. Chlebus, Sprawozdanie z prac 2. Grupy Roboczej ds. Cyfrowego Wspomagania Przemysłu-Zespołu ds (Transformacji Przemysłowej, Warszawa 2017) 13. J. Gracel, M. Stoch, A. Biega´nska, In˙zynier 4.0–(nie)gotowi do zmian (ASTOR Publishing, Kraków, 2017). ISBN 978-83-943833-1-2

Chapter 11

A Few Words to Sum Up

We live in a time of great opportunities. Technology enables both professional and private goals, unrealistic until recently, to be achieved. At the same time, despite the rapid flow of information and powerful supercomputers, we are still striving to further streamline processes—accelerate production, and optimize its costs while maintaining quality standards and minimizing impact on the natural environment as far as possible. We place more and more emphasis on self-development and professional fulfilment, while trying not to neglect private time for ourselves, family and friends. The sense of aesthetics is constantly growing, not only in the field of art and architecture but in the whole world around us. This is why ecological awareness is expanding, with attempts to take care that our planet will serve the next generations, preserving its natural beauty. Even when living in urban clusters, we want to breathe clean air and not waste time on activities that can be simplified. In trade, the consumer is also increasingly demanding; he seeks individuality and uniqueness, while maintaining a high standard. Smart City covers every area of a city. Starting from the industrial and residential areas listed in the above text, through Smart Offices, an efficiently managed Intelligent Health Service, and Smart School to ordinary, prosaic savings in the residents’ wallets. Looking at the examples of Masdar City and The Sustainable City, it should not be forgotten that striving to introduce Smart City solutions is primarily intended to serve all residents and bring them real benefits, regardless of their wealth. The subject is so new and so wide that it cannot be included in one chapter, especially since there are many visions for the development of Smart Cities. However, by establishing a dialogue at decision-making and political levels, as well as by awakening social awareness of the responsibility of each person for the world around us, we have a unique opportunity to take advantage of technological development to preserve the Earth for future generations.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_11

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Part III

Influence of Technologies Developed at IMP PAN on the Process of Energy Transformation in Poland

Chapter 12

Before We Start

In Part I of this book, we showed that the energy transformation, especially the lowcarbon transformation, is closely related to climate change and emissions policies in Europe and the world. Thus, these global processes are closely related. In Part II, the reader had the opportunity to learn about new trends regarding changes on a technical and social basis, regarding the application of a different approach to the topic of contemporary development or the future industrial sector, as well as the subject of the development of modern cities in the Human Smart City trend. In the last part of this book, we will present the role of the Polish Academy of Sciences, and especially the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences, in the processes of energy transformation taking place in the country and in the world, which we called the Green Energy Transformation. The Institute, being the coordinator of a dozen or so high-budget domestic and foreign research projects in the field of broadly understood eco-energy, certainly played an important role and influenced the changes in the energy sector taking place in the country. Several dozen research teams from various centres in the country and abroad participated in these projects. In this part, we will present the new technologies developed within these projects and examples of their implementation. Our task is to provide the best recommendation regarding possible directions of energy transformation. Before we move on to discussing specific technologies and concepts of their use, let’s start our deliberations by presenting the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Institute in a nutshell—we are not going to exhaust the Reader with lists of publications, all other projects, awards and bibliometric indicators. The authors want to present only the most characteristic features of the Institute, the main research topics, schools of thought and a bit of its history with a hint of nostalgia. The content of Part III of this book can be presented as follows: • Energy transformation according to the authors © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_12

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• Eco energy and energy conversion—the leading research topics of the Institute • Large implementation projects in the field of distributed generation and environmental protection coordinated by the Institute as examples ready for application • Technologies in the field of Civic Power. Implementation examples.

Chapter 13

Polish Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery in a Nutshell

13.1 Polish Academy of Sciences The Polish Academy of Sciences is one of the leading scientific institutions in Poland overseeing the development, promotion, integration and popularization of science, and contributes significantly to the development of education and enriching the national culture. The Academy carries out its tasks through a corporation of scientists and within a network of institutes and scientific units, conducting research at the highest possible scientific level. The basic scientific unit of the Academy is institute—at present, there are 68 of them. Most of the PAN institutes are assessed as leading in scientific, research and development activities, as evidenced by the high rating given by the Scientific Unit Evaluation Committee of the Ministry of Education and Science. Fourteen institutes of the Polish Academy of Sciences have the highest A + Category, awarded to the elite of Polish scientific community, the majority of remaining institutes have the A category (Fig. 13.1). Historically, establishing the Polish Academy of Sciences was related to the decisions made at the 1st Congress of Polish Science in 1951 and the liquidation of the Polish Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Warsaw Scientific Society, the two oldest scientific institutions in Poland. The reason for creating this type of institution was to facilitate contact with the scientific community and ensure the development of research topics important for the state. Ultimately, this translated into facilitations related to financing scientific research and focusing it around the problems considered most important for the state. The shaping of the Polish Academy of Sciences was also influenced by the changes taking place in Western countries in connection with the post-war scientific and technological revolution. The Polish Academy of Sciences was established by the Act on the Polish Academy of Sciences of October

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_13

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Fig. 13.1 Logo of the Polish Academy of Sciences

30, 1951. Initially, it was only a corporation of scholars, but in 1960 it was transformed into a central government institution managing a network of institutes and responsible for the overall supervision of scientific research in Poland. In 1990, as a result of the political transformation in Poland, the Polish Academy of Sciences lost its status of a government institution, becoming both a corporation of scientists and a network of institutes yet again. This change, however, did not affect the quality of the teaching provided by the Academy and its position. Scientists from the Polish Academy of Sciences quickly found themselves in the realities of the newly established capitalism in Poland. They soon proved that technological and scientific development is not possible without their active participation. This flexibility and speed of adaptation to new scientific and market challenges is a great asset of the Polish Academy of Sciences, especially of its associated institutes responsible for technical sciences. For years, the Academy has been one of the main opinion-forming institutions on important issues related to climate change or energy transformation. Currently, experts and scientists from the Polish Academy of Sciences are actively involved in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Many institutes of the Polish Academy of Sciences are actively involved in developing tests for Coronavirus or in the search for COVID-19 vaccine. The Polish Academy of Sciences is one of the key scientific institutions in Poland, and its achievements are recognized and appreciated around the world. The Polish Academy of Sciences cooperates both with individual academies of sciences and with international research organizations. In the field of international cooperation, the Polish Academy of Sciences is proud of its participation in over 60 international organizations, as well as cooperation with over 70 partner institutions from Europe, Asia, North America and Africa.

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Experience and work on the currently relevant research problems gives the Polish Academy of Sciences a high place in the ranking of the best research institutions in the world, leaving other Polish universities behind.1

13.2 The Robert Szewalski Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences The Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Gda´nsk is a reputable institution mainly due to its position in the energy sector and broadly understood eco-energy. It is most recognizable in Poland and abroad through the research on conversion of energy in flows. The authors of this monograph have been Professionally, emotionally and sentimentally tied with the Institute for many years now. Professor Jan Kici´nski had been holding the position of Deputy Director for Research for 4 terms (20 years). Currently, he holds the position of Director of the Institute for the second term. The authors’ personal scientific interests are closely related to eco-energy. Therefore, it seems quite natural that the authors of this monograph need to define the role of IMP PAN, a large technical institute with extensive experience in the energy sector and its staff specialized in the energy transformation processes. Of course, other disciplines practiced at the Institute, such as mechanics of solids, aerodynamics, laser and plasma technology or nanomaterials, also contribute to the institute’s achievements, even on a global scale. The authors of this monograph hope that someday there will be books written by other authors relating to the role of the institute in these fields. The Institute’s headquarters is located in Gda´nsk at ul. Fiszera 14 and its branch located in Jabłonna near Warsaw; the KEZO Research Centre—Fig. 13.2—www. imp.gda.pl

13.3 Topics, Structure, Research Teams The main goals and tasks of the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Gda´nsk, hereinafter referred to simply as the Institute or IMP PAN, are set out in its statute. The Institute was established in 1956 to conduct scientific research in the field of the basics of operation, design, construction and development of machines and devices used to convert energy in flows and to conduct educational and implementation activities related to this field (paragraph 5 point 1 of the statute).

1

https://www.natureindex.com/country-outputs/Poland.

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Fig. 13.2 The headquarters of the IMP PAN in Gda´nsk and the branch in Jabłonna

IMP PAN is a state-funded research institute, however it is also open to other sources of funding, including applying for grants in Polish and European research and development projects. The activities of the Institute are fully compliant with the new European energy regulations. The Institute currently employs approximately 240 people per year, of which the so-called the number N = 110, meaning the staff conducting direct scientific research in the discipline of Mechanical Engineering (Professors and engineering and technical employees with a doctoral degree). Thus, it is the second largest PAN institution in the country with its own legal personality. The Institute holds an A category and is authorized to confer academic degrees and titles in the discipline of mechanical engineering (formerly: mechanics, construction and operation of machines). The scientific disciplines represented at the Institute are listed below: • broadly understood energy conversion in flows • machine mechanics (SHM, computer analysis, vibrations, rotor dynamics, modeling-based diagnostics, expert systems) • aerodynamics and aviation, new materials, condition monitoring and intelligent structures • diagnostics of steam turbines • small-scale distributed generation of heat and electricity based on renewable energy sources

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• cogeneration technologies, energy storage, wind turbines, water turbines, energy plus technologies • photovoltaics • high-temperature gasification and gas / syngas cogeneration • plasma and laser engineering • nanomaterials • small-scale hydropower plants. The contemporary challenges faced by the Institute result from the need to conduct empirical research at a high level (leading to publications in renowned international journals), and from the need to cooperate with the manufacturing sector (leading to participation in large projects and conducting utilitarian research). Bibliometric indicators mainly determine the category of a unit in the ministerial system of evaluation of scientific institutions, and participation in projects together with economic units determines the coverage of the missing funds for statutory activities and staff earnings. The sense of personal satisfaction of the staff is also important. It is achieved through fulfillment of Institute’s mission, namely the fact that the results of empirical research can be applied in practice. The necessity to carry out works useful for the economy also results from the prosaic fact that the statutory subsidy of the institute from the state budget constitutes only about 40% of the overall budget. The skillful combination of empirical and utilitarian works is a difficult art, but it has become the guiding principle of the scientific policy of the Institute’s management and staff. This is not a very common scientific doctrine among other institutes of the Polish Academy of Sciences—Fig. 13.3. Only in 2019, the Institute obtained 59 contracts/orders directly from industry. The situation was similar in previous years. Statistically speaking, on average, every

Fig. 13.3 The mission and motto of the Institute—combining basic and applied research. It is not a common scientific doctrine among other PAN institutes

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second scientific, engineering and technical employee obtains one order directly from industry. This number is the highest among all institutes of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The Institute is an institution of the Polish Academy of Sciences and according to the statute, its priorities must include striving for scientific excellence and international cooperation. The Institute is currently participating in 10 international projects such as KEHORIZON 2020, ERDF—INTERREG Programs, and coordinates two of them. The Institute previously participated in FP-6 and FP-7 projects, by coordinating 4 projects. Such a high rate of research coordination in international programs is not found in much larger units, e.g. some large universities. The situation looks similar when it comes to domestic projects such as NCN, NCBiR, POIR, SPUB, WFOS (see Abbreviations/Acronyms) and others. On average, the Institute acquires about 30–40 of those projects each year. Here is a summary: Little statistics Average yearly output: – every researcher publishes ca. one paper indexed by the Journal Citation Reports (the so-called Filadelphia list) – every second researcher acquires a grant from NCBIR, NCN, H2020 or other projects – every second researcher acquires one direct order from the industry. The Institute has an established position in the country and abroad in the field of the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) (Prof. W. Ostachowicz’s team), aerodynamics (Prof. P. Doerffer and Prof. J. Pozorski’s team), laser technology (previously Prof. ´ J. Mizeraczyk’s team, now Prof. M. Dors and G. Sliwi´ nski) and aeroelasticity (the team of Prof. R. Rz˛adkowski). In the field of industrial research, the teams of Prof. A. Adamkowski and Prof. J. Badura and R. Rzadkowski are renowned in the scientific community. However, the Institute owes its renowned opinion to its position in the energy sector where it is the most recognizable, taking into account the traditional beginnings of its activity and more. In recent years, the Institute got the opportunity to operate in the broadly understood eco-energy sector.The intensification of the staff’s effort led to the Institute’s spectacular success in this field. The Institute, having unique laboratory facilities at its disposal and coordinating the largest high-budget research projects, has become the undisputed leader in the country in the field of small-scale and distributed energy. This is due to the effort of research teams of Professors ˙ Kici´nski, Lackowski, Lampart, Karda´s, Cenian, Zywica, Flaszy´nski as well as many other researchers. The research group “Ekoenergetyka” has been significantly strengthened by bringing together staff from all the Institute’s Research Centres as well as external institutions and universities. (Fig. 13.4).

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Fig. 13.4 Eco energy is an interdisciplinary research field that brings together many teams from the Institute as well as from Poland and abroad

The current research projects of the Institute are broken down into main groups in Fig. 13.2.2. The subject matter, selection of young staff for managerial positions and, finally, the unique laboratory facilities seem to ensure the achievement of crucial future goals, namely: receiving the A + category and coordination of several more EU projects as part of international cooperation. The current composition of the Institute’s leadership is presented in Fig. 13.5 and the coordinating team of the KEZO Research Centre in Jabłonna (a branch of IMP PAN)—in Fig. 13.6.

13.4 Science Schools The scientific excellence of a research facility is also created by science schools where research is conducted. The level of these works, the selection of topics, education of the staff, etc. depends on the leaders of these fields of study, i.e. Professors of recognized national and international reputation. They “raised” their staff and created the subject matter which led to achievements that determine the position of the Institute today. It was their position that determined the position of the Institute. They decided to build their own science schools. Each of them promoted over a dozen doctors of technical sciences and was a reviewer in several dozen doctoral,

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Fig. 13.5 The current (for the 2018–2022 term) staff of the Directorate and Managers of IMP PAN Centres

habilitation and Professor proceedings. They also managed many national and international projects. School of Prof. W. Ostachowicz—Mechanics

13.4 Science Schools

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Fig. 13.6 Team coordinating the work at the KEZO Research Centre in Jabłonna

School of Mechanics, created by Prof. W. Ostachowicz, Corresponding Member of PAN, specializes in theoretical and experimental research in the field of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), Extended Non-destructive Testing (ENDT), vibration control, structure dynamics, composite materials and structures, intelligent and functional. This school is widely known and acclaimed both locally and internationally. In modeling studies, he mainly uses the finite element method (FEM) and the new computational method, spectral finite element (MSES). The MSES method combines the advantages of FEM (ease of modeling complex objects) and the method of spectral elements (rapid convergence). Experimental research focuses mainly on the issues of damage identification using, among others: propagation of elastic waves, optical sensors, electromechanical impedance, scanning laser vibrometer, THz spectroscopy, thermography. Theoretical and experimental analyses focus mainly on aviation constructions and devices, renewable energy devices (e.g., rotor blades, offshore wind turbine support structure), offshore structures (e.g., ships, drilling platforms). The research conducted by the School of Mechanics is very important both for economic and social reasons because it helps to ensure the safe use of the constructions, the failure of which may result in human casualties or an ecological disaster. The prestige of the school, and its founder, is proven by numerous individual and team awards received both in Poland and abroad.

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Selected awards granted to Prof. W. Ostachowicz and his team.

Selected monographs by Prof. W. Ostachowicz.

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School of Prof. P. Doerffer—Aerodynamics

The school created by Prof. P. Doerffer deals mainly with compressible flows with sub- and supersonic velocities. They are characterized by the development of strong disturbances in the form of shock waves, which often lead to detachment. Therefore, one of the currently dominant research directions is the use of various innovative flow control methods to prevent such negative phenomena. Recent research concerns longitudinal vortex generator patented by the team. The research base created at the Institute has been built for 25 years. A new transonic tunnel was designed and built to conduct experimental studies of supersonic shockwaves. The equipment obtained in various projects places our tunnel among the best equipped in Europe. Recently, a new measuring chamber has been built, it will enable the testing of the linear turbine and compressor palisades. Along with the development of the experimental background, a lot of work was devoted to the development of numerical methods (CFD). Thanks to the cooperation with European partners, in particular with DLR in Göttingen and with the University of Karlsruhe, several people were educated to conduct research under the CFD. Our team does not develop numerical methods directly (but uses them very extensively), being able to implement new boundary conditions or turbulence models to the numerical codes possessed by the team. Due to the need to use large computer resources for CFD research, we were one of the first in Poland to build and apply calculations on clusters of PCs (since 2000). This experience in building clusters was also used, with our support, by other friendly teams in Poland. However, this direction of operation has disappeared in recent years because the demand for computing power in Aerodynamics has grown so significantly, that now numerical simulations are performed on large supercomputers (KDM) scattered throughout Poland. Our team has an established position in Europe, which leads to extensive scientific cooperation with many centres in Europe. Our greatest achievement and distinction was entrusting us with the coordination of UFAST and TFAST research projects in FP6 and 7 under Cooperation, the purpose of which is scientific research. In each of these projects, IMP PAN coordinated the work of about 20 research centres in Europe,

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such as DLR and ONERA, also universities such as Cambridge, Marseille, RomeLa Sapienza, Delft, Liverpool and Southampton, and also industry such as RollsRoyce and Dassault Aviation. The team was also the coordinator of the Marie-Curie STADYWICO and IMESCON projects. An additional distinction was the invitation of our team to research projects (Cooperation): AITEB, AITEB-2, FLIRET, TLC, ERICKA, FACTOR and SMS. The accumulated potential required extensive management and supervision therefore becoming the basis for establishing two departments. The Department of Theoretical Aerodynamics is currently headed by Prof. P. Flaszy´nski and the Department of Experimental Aerodynamics by Prof. R. Szwaba. In 2018, the Minister of Science and Higher Education rewarded the team with an award for outstanding scientific and technical achievements in the category of “research for the development of the economy". The team consisted of three people: Piotr Doerffer, Paweł Flaszy´nski, Ryszard Szwaba. Extensive cooperation with many research centres throughout Europe resulted in books edited by Prof. Doerffer, which included the works of many scientists from across Europe, as set out below. The development of IMP PAN towards renewable energy sources has generated a new research direction related to the aerodynamics of wind turbines. A new type of windmill with a vertical axis of rotation, predisposed for prosumer applications, was developed and patented. The construction of prototypes of such windmills as part of NCBR research projects is being developed with the aim of technical improvement and to reduce production costs.

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Selected monographs by Prof. P. Doerffer. School of Prof. J. Kicinski—Machine ´ Dynamics, Eco-energy

The scientific school created by Prof. J. Kici´nski, a corresponding member of the Polish Academy of Sciences, mainly concerns the dynamics of rotors and slide bearings, especially the methodology of non-linear description allowing for applications in technical diagnostics. The developed theoretical foundations and computer programs allow for the analysis of the dynamic states of both large power turbine sets and low-power microturbines. The achievements of the school include: – Development of new elements in the non-linear theory of vibrations: new classifiers of the object state in rotor dynamics (coupling the shape of vibration spectra with trajectory features and classification of the object state after exceeding the stability limit), explaining the mechanisms of hydrodynamic instability development, including eddies, oil runout and multiple vortices. – Development of diagnostic discriminants of the dynamic state of large energy machines, explaining the mechanism of mutual cancellation of some defects

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– Introduction of heuristics to the research methodology in the field of rotor dynamics (first attempt in Poland) – Development of methodology and tools (the unique on a national scale MESWIR computer system for the non-linear description of the dynamic state of complex systems such as rotor line supporting structure and adaptation of these tools for diagnostics according to the model. The MESWIR system is used by the ALSTOM concern and the national power industry. Work in this field allowed to launch a new direction of research, namely microturbines, home cogeneration plants and distributed generation, i.e. topics closely related to eco-energy. It also created a scientific base for generating the largest projects in the history of the Institute, namely the strategic, key project of the Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Jabłonna. The manager of these projects was Prof. J. Kici´nski. These projects will be covered in later chapters of this book.

Selected monographs of the school of Prof. J. Kici´nski. The works of Prof. J. Kici´nski and his team in the field of eco-energy also led to several spectacular successes, such as the position of Vice-President of Governing Council of eseia (European sustainable energy innovation alliance), the National Energy Globe Awards (an award for a project in the field of environmental protection under the patronage of UNESCO and UNEP), First Degree Prime Minister (Team) Award for the development of technology for municipal autonomous energy regions, ARE (Team Leader) Siemens Research Award, or the Research Award of the President of the Polish Academy of Sciences.

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Selected awards granted to Prof. J. Kici´nski and his team. School of Prof. J. Mikielewicz—Thermodynamics and two-phase flows

The school consisted of Professors Jarosław Mikielewicz, a full member of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Zbigniew Bilicki, Marian Trela, Dariusz Butrymowicz, and Brunon Grochal. However, the essential role was played by Prof. J. Mikielewicz, hence it can be assumed that this school is his creation. The main directions of research focused on issues in the field of thermodynamics: • classical thermodynamics. Thermodynamic cycles for low-boiling factors (ORC). Dimensionless criteria for selecting a factor. • extended thermodynamics and irreversible processes. Criteria for optimization of thermodynamic cycles were developed in the field of two-phase vapor–liquid flows, the following issues were investigated:

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• breakdown of a thin layer of liquid into streams. A theory was developed and systematic experimental research was carried out, • heat exchange during boiling and condensation in channels and microchannels. A general semi-empirical method for determining the heat transfer coefficients for these processes has been developed, • surface cooling with liquid streams. A theory was developed and systematic experimental research was carried out, • two-phase flows through the lance. A theory and experimental research were developed • critical two-phase flows in the channel. A theory and experimental research were developed • single-phase and two-phase flows in natural cycles. A theory has been developed. • two-phase flows, vapor, liquid in microchannels. As a result of this basic research, a number of publications in world journals of the highest rank, a number of national monographs, chapters in world monographs and encyclopedias were created. An example is the chapter on thermodynamics in the book Nature and Design published by WIT Press.

Chapter in the monograph “Nature and Design” was developed by the group of Prof. J. Mikielewicz. On the basis of basic research, new concepts of heat exchangers have been developed: with liquid ribs, new “thermal diodes” for the construction industry, micro exchangers with intensified heat transfer. These ideas are protected by patents.

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Scientific school of Prof. J. Badura—Thermodynamic Fluid–Structure interactions

The principle of operation of the group of researchers gathered around the Department of Energy Conversion and Prof. Janusz Badura is closely listening to the needs of modern Professional power industry in order to provide a reliable, quick and applicable solution to a specific technical problem in the field of turbines, boilers or entire energy cycles. These practical needs of the domestic power industry are the source of the research subject of the J. Badura school. The leading trend of the school is the group of issues arising at the interface between the working fluid and the solid body of the structure. Dozens of original research tools have been created on this subject, thanks to which it was possible to obtain expert knowledge on topics often unavailable in the classical thermodynamic approach. It turns out that the range of applications of thermodynamics tools in thermal-FSI interactions is extensive, and covers many problems of modern engineering, ranging from precise thermal-flow diagnostics of complex zero-emission, hybrid, gas-steam and polygeneration cycles, justifications for numerous cycles modernization, and proposals for new solutions for flexibility power plant operation, proposals for cycles with renewable energy sources, proposals for the modernization of elements of turbines, boilers, exchangers and compressors, to cooperation with producers in developing new solutions characterized by high performance. The thermal-FSI school of Prof. Badura has impressive achievements in recognizing the design of modern energy conversion devices, including solid oxide SOFC fuel cells, high-temperature rSOF electrolysers, lithium bromine refrigeration equipment, heat pumps and exchangers for deep geothermal energy, thermocatalytic reactors for hydrogen production, harmful gas utilization reactors, micro- and nano-mass and heat exchangers, and chemical process reactors. An important feature of the research tools of the school of Prof. Badura is their natural usefulness in the field of expertise. This was where most of the team’s ideas and solutions worked. In cooperation with the largest domestic power plants, the belief in the utilitarian value of the team’s research tools, its intellectual foundations and its reliable methodology was born. The most expertise gave rise to new challenges

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and demands for refined tools—often becoming an element of doctoral dissertations and publications in energy magazines. So far, 48 students finished the school of Prof. Badura. Most of them, fascinated by the world of Professional power engineering, found their spot in the concerns of large producers of turbines, boilers and other power devices. Many of them make a serious contribution to the development and maintenance of the domestic power industry at an excellent modern level. Luckily, some of them chose the more difficult path and stayed in science. Three students—Mariusz Banaszkiewicz, Tomasz Ochrymiuk and Wojciech Sobieski—achieved the postdoctoral degree and courageously faced the challenges. In this creative effort, the next three doctors—Paweł Ziółkowski, Tomasz Kowalczyk and Waldemar Dudda—are not inferior to them, and they are already full-fledged support for the school of Thermodynamic Fluid–Structure Interactions. So far, the specialization: Thermodynamic Fluid–Structure interactions (thermalFSI) does not have many formal achievements—it is a young and highly interdisciplinary field. Nevertheless, the school of Prof. Badura has its own conference Wdzydzeanum FSI Workshop, where, apart from scientific presentations, sailing workshops are held on Lake Wdzydze. We assume that it is best to learn about the problems of fluid–solid interaction in practice.

Participants of the 6th conference Wdzydzeanum FSI-Workshop, Wdzydze Kiszewskie, September 2–4, 2018.

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School of Prof. J. Mizeraczyk—Plasma and laser technology

In the last decade, Prof. J. Mizeraczyk developed two scientific schools: school of plasma technology applications for ecological purposes and school of laser technology applications. The first one is aimed in particular at explaining the physical and chemical processes observed during the generation of non-equilibrium plasma of microwave, corona and barrier discharges in gases and water. Two students from this school, Ph.D. hab. Eng. Mirosław Dors and Ph.D. hab. Eng. Mariusz Jasi´nski, are currently managers of the plants that are part of the Centre. Ph.D. hab. M. Jasi´nski is the laureate of the Gda´nsk Scientific Society Award. One of the special achievements of the school of using plasma technology for ecological purposes is the initiation of worldwide research on the combined use of cortical discharge and a catalyst for the elimination of nitrogen oxides from industrial exhaust gases. Another significant achievement is the use of microwave plasma for the production of hydrogen from gaseous and liquid fuels. Thanks to experimental and numerical research, methods of designing advanced microwave plasma generators were developed and the role of this plasma in the chemical processing of fuels was explained. As part of the laser technology application school, the methods of laser diagnostics of liquid and gas flows, as well as laser methods of material micromachining are constantly improved. Laser flow diagnostics turned out to be extremely useful in the study of electrohydrodynamic phenomena induced by corona discharges in electrostatic precipitators and plasma actuators. Achievements of Prof. J. Mizeraczyk in this field have been appreciated by the scientific community in the form of the international Harry J. White (2011) award, awarded by the International Society for Electrostatic Precipitation, and the Jan Heweliusz Scientific Award of the City of Gda´nsk (2013). One of the alumni of this school, Ph.D. hab. Marek Kocik, is a recipient of the Japan Society scholarship for the Promotion of Science, and currently serves as the manager of one of the Centre’s facilities.

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Monographs with the participation of the team of Prof. J. Mizeraczyk.

13.5 Historical Background with a Hint of Nostalgia Undoubtedly, a key role in the history of the Institute was played by Prof. Robert Szewalski, commonly regarded as the founder of the new research unit in the structure of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The Institute is named after him, and his statue stands in front of the main entrance. It is thanks to his efforts that the Institute has had a new building after 10 years of operation in modest housing conditions. Nostalgic photos from this period are shown in Fig. 13.7 and the ceremony of unveiling the monument and a memorial plaque in Fig. 13.8. Its subsequent directors, namely Prof. Tadeusz Gerlach and Prof. Jerzy Krzy˙zanowski also played a significant role. It is worth stopping for a moment on over 20 years of work of Prof. J. Krzy˙zanowski as the Director of the Institute and on the message he created. He argued that such a large technical institute as IMP PAN cannot only be “computer-pencil”, but should also be useful for the economy and industry. Such thinking was to generate many years of cooperation with the national energy sector, especially with the ZAMECH plants in Elbl˛ag, later ALSTOM Power. This collaboration of Prof. Krzy˙zanowski supported him with admirable determination. Its message is valid to this day, and subsequent directors continued this guiding principle in the scientific policy of the institute.

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Fig. 13.7 1966. Construction of the new site of the Institute. Prof. R. Szewalski assists in laying the cornerstone

Fig. 13.8 Celebration of the 100th birthday of the founder of the Institute, Prof. R. Szewalski. A few photos from this event

The next breakthrough year was 1998. Prof. Jarosław Mikielewicz became the Director, and Prof. Jan Kici´nski became his deputy for research. This composition of the management ran the Institute for 16 years, i.e. for 4 consecutive terms.

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Fig. 13.9 Unique laboratories at IMP PAN in the field of eco-energy technologies

It was a time of completely new challenges. The activity of Poland in the EU, the new situation faced by industry and the new scientific policy of the state forced the necessity to apply for large research projects, both domestic and international. Our staff had to learn how to work in teams and cooperate with the industry in the conditions of fierce competition. Acquiring EU projects turned out to be particularly difficult, so the greater is the merit and recognition for the staff who acquired these projects. In 2014, after Prof. J. Mikielewicz retired, the duties of the Director of the Institute were taken over by Prof. Jan Kici´nski, who has had this function until now (i.e. editing this book). In the years 2014–2017, the Institute built its most modern and unique laboratories in the field of steam microturbines, energy storage and home cogeneration power plants—Fig. 13.9. These laboratories are still being expanded and constitute the Institute’s position in the field of eco-energy technologies. An important event was the 60th anniversary of the Institute—Fig. 13.10 (Figs. 13.11 and 13.12).

13.6 Branch Office—KEZO Research Centre in Jabłonna An important moment in the history of the Institute was the construction of a new, nonresidential building in Jabłonna near Warsaw. The PAN Research Centre—KEZO Energy Conversion and Renewable Sources was established here. The construction of the PAN KEZO Research Centre was initiated by the authorities of the Polish Academy of Sciences and financed from the structural funds of the

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Fig. 13.10 The 60th anniversary of the Institute. View of the first page of the invitation for guests

Fig. 13.11 Some photos from the Jubilee. Polish Baltic Philharmonic

Mazowieckie Voivodeship. The project coordinator and beneficiary was the IMP PAN in Gda´nsk. As a result, the largest and most modern Centre of this type in the country and one of the three largest in Europe was created. The Centre is equipped with unique research equipment. The total cost of building the Centre was approximately PLN 90 million, including equipment and the purchase of apparatus approximately PLN 40 million. Thus, it was the largest infrastructure investment in the history of the Institute. The manager of this project was Prof. J. Kici´nski.

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Fig. 13.12 Occasional, jubilee interview of the Director of the Institute for the press

More detailed information about this Centre, including a brochure, is available on the Institute’s website www.imp.gda.pl. The Centre does not have its own legal personality, so it is a branch of the Institute. Some say that it is the more beautiful part of it. It is necessary to emphasize the role played by Prof. W. Włosinski. ´ He was not only the initiator of the construction of the Centre, but also a good team spirit in all difficult matters. At this point, words of appreciation and thanks go to the then President of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Prof. M. Kleiber, Marshal of the Masovian Voivodeship, A. Struzik and Prof. J. Mikielewicz, then the director of IMP PAN. Figures 13.13, 13.14, 13.15, 13.16, 13.17 and 13.18 they constitute a photographic documentation of these important, even breakthrough moments for the Institute, as well as selected laboratories. The Jabłonna Research Centre opens up completely new research and implementation opportunities and strengthens the Institute’s position in the EU’s priority field of eco-energy.

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Fig. 13.13 The beginnings of the PAN KEZO Research Centre in Jabłonna. Historical moments

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Fig. 13.14 The opening ceremony of the KEZO Centre—September 17, 2015. Participation in the ceremony was attended by, among others: Minister of Science and Higher Education L. KolarskaBobi´nska, President of the Polish Academy of Sciences J. Duszy´nski, former President of the Polish Academy of Sciences M. Kleiber, Prof. W. Włosi´nski and many other guests

Fig. 13.15 List of laboratories at the KEZO Centre

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Fig. 13.16 An example of functionality of the KEZO Centre: energy storage

Fig. 13.17 KEZO Centre—the most modern laboratories in the country in the field of renewable Energy

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Fig. 13.18 KEZO research Centre. View from the courtyard of the complex

Chapter 14

How to Start the Energy Transformation

14.1 The Direction of Energy Transformation According to the Authors The reader, richer in the knowledge gained from the first two parts of this book, certainly must already have some idea about climate change and its causes and is aware that these changes are possible to stop only when humanity begins to harmoniously use both technological achievements and learns how to change their habits. Only this approach guarantees our success and survival as mankind in the coming centuries. An indispensable element of a developing society is the need to produce and then consume energy. This process has continued since the beginning of the industrial revolution that took place in the eighteenth century in England and Scotland. During this period, mankind began the process of transition from agricultural production and manufactory or artisan production to mainly mechanical factory production on a large scale. Over the years, as society, we are getting increasingly focused on the consumption of our products. Electricity consumption in households has increased several times over the last 20 years. The methods of energy production, however, have remained unchanged for years. It was only the present situation that made us look at the energy sector differently and move towards renewable energy sources. Based on their experience, the authors want to indicate the potential direction of the energy transformation, which, if properly implemented, should bring the expected results, both climatic and socio-economic. This subsection is devoted to the general characteristics of modern energy systems, the reader will find specific solutions and applications in real conditions later in the book. Here, the authors tried to indicate potential directions of development for the currently operating energy systems in many municipalities and cities located in Poland. The reader needs to understand that transforming today’s energy systems is only a matter of time. The changing regulations regarding the protection of the environment and the reduction of harmful dust emissions into the atmosphere, as well as the necessity to support energy systems through the use of additional renewable © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_14

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sources, is not a distant future, but a rapidly approaching reality. By now, the role of research units that have been dealing with this subject for many years should be particularly emphasized. Only in-depth scientific and technical analyzes will allow for a harmonious transformation of the currently functioning systems and will not expose investors and energy system operators to unnecessary costs, in many cases these are local government units represented in Poland by urban-rural municipalities. Energy systems all over the world are currently undergoing change or even some kind of evolution due to climate change. Moreover, this effect is also closely related to the conditions concerning growing energy needs and, secondly, to the availability of energy resources. When the world was engulfed by the industrial revolution, coal became the main energy carrier, which has remained so to this day in many countries of the world, including Poland. Over the following centuries, mankind began to use other energy sources such as oil, gas or atom. The current situation on the energy fuel market is changing rapidly. Climate change and the constant turmoil in the prices of fossil fuels mean that in recent years humanity has started to look more actively for other alternative energy sources. Renewable sources have come to the fore in this search. At present, more and more countries in Europe and the world are starting to build their energy systems based on renewable energy sources, which is related to the climate policy promoted by the European Union (Europe’s climate neutrality is 2050). In Europe, the leader of the new approach to the design and construction of energy systems is Denmark, which has based most of its current power system on the production of energy from wind. In Poland, the above trend is also beginning to gain importance. The concept of, for example, energy clusters or energy cooperatives developed by the Ministry of Energy, (current Ministry of Climate), is one of the manifestations of this trend. Returning to modern energy systems based on renewable energy sources, numerous scientific works on this topic clearly indicate that future energy systems will aggregate many types of energy in one system, ranging from electricity to heat and even cold. This approach is known as 4th Generation District Heating (4DH) energy systems. From numerous scientific works [1], there are unequivocal results that only the 4DH approach will allow for the appropriate “flexibility” of the energy system based on renewable sources to meet the changing energy needs of consumers. We must remember that we cannot fully control some of the renewable sources that humans can use to generate energy, such as wind or sun. Of course, it is possible to turn them off in times of overproduction, but this approach misses the goal of producing energy from renewable sources and reduces the ultimate energy efficiency of the system. Poland as a former country of the so-called The Eastern Bloc, which has been heavily influenced by Russia in the past, is ideally suited to implement the 4DH idea. Numerous heating plants or combined heat and power plants located in many Polish cities, considered by many to be a relic torn out of the USSR, is an ideal starting point for implementing the above idea. The energy systems of the above enterprises are in many cases based mainly on coal. The current situation, however, related to the European Union guidelines on the reduction of emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere from energy production processes means that many PECs face a difficult choice to invest in very expensive splice filtering installations, which,

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unfortunately, do not provide a final guarantee for the future when the regulations on exhaust emissions will be even more stringent, as declared by the European Union. An alternative to this type of solution is to start the conversion of energy systems based on coal into hybrid systems in the first step, i.e. those that would combine both old coal technologies with modern cogeneration systems and those based solely on RES. Only this approach can harmoniously guarantee the transformation of current coal-based energy systems into future RES-based systems. Obviously, such a transformation cannot take place without a thorough analysis of the energy efficiency of a given system. In Poland, there are appropriate research institutions capable of performing this type of analysis. One of the leading research centres dealing with the above topics is the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IMP PAN) with its newly opened Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Energy Conversion and Renewable Sources (CB PAN KEZO). The Institute has started an offensive on the construction of smart grid energy systems. The Institute has been dealing with issues related to RES for many years. In recent years, the Institute’s laboratory base has acquired new highly specialized laboratories for energy systems based on renewable energy at the KEZO Research Centre, presented in Sect. 13.6. The laboratory base of KEZO CB PAN together with the appropriate background of computer programs provides the possibility of performing full analyzes of energy systems, along with analyzes of possible scenarios for the transformation of systems into new ones based, for example, on cogeneration systems supported by RES. Below is a short example of the transformation of the currently operating energy system of heat production into a system based on heat pumps. In order to adapt to changes in the area of broadly understood heating, steps should be taken to transform the currently operated high-temperature networks into low-temperature networks. This solution has a number of advantages. The main one is, of course, the reduction of transmission losses in the distribution network. This translates into a reduction in primary energy consumption. These advantages, especially in the context of constantly increasing penalties for carbon dioxide emissions and stricter regulations on other pollutants, allow reducing the operating costs of the systems used (ETS and IED directives). They allow for greater diversification of power supply, especially the use of lowtemperature sources—system hybridization and fuel risk diversification. Moreover, taking into account the issue of legislative and financial support for renewable energy technologies and waste heat, additional reduction of investment costs can be expected due to subsidies and reliefs. The development of the construction industry, not only in Poland but also throughout Europe, shows that in the coming years the demand for heat will decrease. This is due not only to the change in the perception of energy efficiency by consumers but primarily from legal provisions (Directive 2010/21/EU). Investments in renewable energy sources will continue to increase for the same reasons. This trend forces producers and suppliers of heat to introduce changes that expand the portfolio of services. The current model of most often used coal-fired heat sources supplying consumers with high-temperature heat will cease to be economically justified and will affect the Profitability of operating producers and distributors. As a consequence,

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these companies have to start an investment that allows for the transformation of current business and technical models into those that take these threats into account. The solution that allows reducing the investment risk of system transformation is the use of subsequent stages of the expansion of the currently functioning network to implement low-temperature solutions. Network investments are driven, among others, by newly constructed buildings (with lower heat demand than older buildings of a similar area; with low-temperature central heating installations) and provide an opportunity to introduce low-temperature networks made, for example, of PE pipes. This solution brings further advantages in the form of even greater reduction of heat losses caused by the lower thermal conductivity of the material of the pipeline walls. Moreover, this technology significantly reduces renovation costs, as there is no oxygen corrosion and calcium deposition. The cascade system is the basic stage of the proposed transformation. It consists of using the factor in the primary pipeline to supply customers in thermomodernized and new buildings. Figure 14.1 presents the concept of a cascade heating network. This solution allows meeting the needs of users with both high, medium and lowtemperature installations while improving energy efficiency. In addition, it opens the way to the implementation of renewable energy sources, and also allows for better use of dispersed sources. This increases the flexibility of the entire system and the security of supply. Depending on local conditions, it also allows direct use of waste heat from industrial processes. The development of the low-temperature network also enables the local manufacturers and distributors to enter a new service market. As shown by subsequent

Fig. 14.1 Diagram of a cascade heating system

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reports on the increase in sales of heat pumps in Poland (the report “The heat pump market in Poland in 2010–2017” PORT PC), this market grew in 2017 by 30%. These devices can be an alternative to traditional heat distribution centres and perfectly fit into the ideas of low-temperature heating networks. The heating system could be both a lower heat source and also allow for the collection of heat from the building cooling process in the case of reversible heat pumps. The latter solution would additionally improve the heat balance of the network thanks to an additional heat source in the system and allow to reduce the costs of heat generation for domestic hot water purposes in older buildings. These solutions significantly improve the energy efficiency of both the system and the recipient’s building and allow both parties to meet the ever-tightening regulations on the primary energy consumption index. In addition, for subsequent investments in new sources for the heating system, the producer may invest in cogeneration systems (e.g. RDF) and photovoltaic modules, and thus also provide a comprehensive service of supplying the recipient with both heat and electricity. This will lead to an even greater reduction of individual emission factors (and fees) for the system in use. Taking into account the decrease in prices for PV/T technology, the implementation of this solution should also be considered as a source of increasing the temperature of the medium on the return to high-temperature sources. This will allow for a significant reduction in investment costs, however, the use of the installation in winter will be determined by the parameters of the network. Of course, in the whole concept of transforming the heating system, all available source technologies should be considered to achieve the greatest economic effect. The above example was developed and analyzed with the use of highly specialized computer programs such as Transys or EnergyPRO. Appropriate modules in the libraries of these tools allow performing preliminary analyzes, thanks to which it is possible to take the next steps related to the reconstruction, expansion or complete change of the existing energy systems. In the EnergyPRO program, you can, for example, model, optimize, simulate and analyze virtually any type of technology. From single, well-known generation units based on fossil fuels to the latest technologies based on unstable sources, and to entire power plants and power systems. The software optimizes the operation of the modelled system according to all prerequisites such as weather conditions, technical characteristics of various units, maintenance costs, fuel prices, taxes, subsidies etc. The analytical optimization methodology provides a fast and efficient tool for: • • • • •

strategic energy planning, optimization of distributed energy systems, creating a basis for making investment decisions, integration of the existing energy system, analysis of sustainable change processes.

EnergyPRO is used for the technical and economic analysis of energy projects, such as: • cogeneration heating installations with gas engines connected to boilers and thermal storage,

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Fig. 14.2 Diagram of an energy production installation

• industrial cogeneration installations supplying end users with both electricity, steam and hot water, • cogeneration installations with absorption cooling (trigeneration), • biogas CHP plants with biogas storage, • biomass CHP plants. Other types of projects, e.g. geothermal, solar collectors, solar farms or wind farms can also be analyzed and described in detail in the created model. EnergyPRO can also be used for water pumping station analysis, compressed air storage and other electricity storage projects. An example of using this software to perform a technical and economic analysis regarding the Profitability of natural gas cogeneration systems installed in a statistical heat company is presented in Fig. 14.2. The analyzed case concerned checking what the Profit of a PEC company will look like when the cogeneration systems producing heat and electricity meet the thermal needs of residents, and the electricity will be sold to the energy exchange on the day-ahead market. Two cases were taken into account in which a system was established without thermal energy storage and with storage. This approach allowed to check how the CHP-based energy system behaves, in which its continuous operation is also ensured in the summer when the heat needs of consumers are reduced to the production of domestic hot water. The overproduction of heat in summer by cogeneration systems was stored. Examples of heat and electricity production runs are shown in Fig. 14.3. During the analysis, two additional scenarios for the development of the energy system were also taken into account. The first takes into account the situation where the existing energy system starts the transformation and only partially covers the demand for heat from cogeneration systems. The second scenario assumes that the

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Fig. 14.3 Graphs showing heat and electricity production with partial heat storage, the whole production of energy (electricity and heat) is related to electricity prices from the energy market (top graph)

system has already been fully modernized and fully covers the energy needs of consumers by using only gas-based cogeneration systems. Financial flows taking into account the energy prices of the next day from 2016 and the average gas price in the same year are shown in Fig. 14.4. The above analysis showed that having cogeneration systems with thermal energy storage was highly Profitable already in 2016. It should be remembered that these analyzes are the starting point for the transformation of future energy systems. Only such an approach will reduce the risk of possible unsuccessful investments, which may adversely affect the final energy balance of a given region or city. Of course, in order for the above-described analyzes to be fully reflected in reality, a technology base and appropriate laboratory facilities are necessary to, for example, analyzing the operating characteristics of various energy systems. Such facilities are at the disposal of the Polish Academy of Sciences in the form of the aforementioned KEZO PAN Research Centre. The energy transformation is undoubtedly a major civilization challenge that we have faced. Properly planned and carried out, it can allow us to significantly reduce environmental pollution as well as target reduction of energy production costs, which, let us remind you, is directly related to all elements of our lives. Summing up, the examples presented here clearly show that the path to energy transformation leads through appropriate analyzes and selection of appropriate technologies depending on the energy needs of a given region. The idea of distributed energy systems based on renewable energy sources and prosumer energy are

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Fig. 14.4 Cash flow in a statistical PEC for a wastewater-based energy system and entirely based on cogeneration systems

directions that should be especially taken into account when planning and building modern energy systems.

14.2 Smart Municipality/Smart Region as an Example of a Possible Transformation Path Since municipality is the smallest local government unit, it is where the energy transformation based on distributed energy systems and prosumer energy should begin. A smart municipality, or to put it another way, a smart region is a place where, according to the authors, a real energy transformation (and not modernization of large power units in traditional power plants) will begin. Before we can talk about the proper structure of smart municipalities, there are still research and development works to be carried out to develop and implement solutions, procedures and technologies leading to energy transformation in municipalities, allowing for their sustainable development, taking into account local social, environmental and economic conditions. The holistic approach requires the simultaneous analysis of technological, environmental, social, economic and legal aspects. The omission of some may lead to serious difficulties in implementing even the best technologies or business models. It is worth noting that there are already developed technologies that, with increased social acceptance, in a wise business model and with appropriate legal regulations,

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would definitely support the process of e.g. decarbonisation of energy systems. Their implementation should proceed simultaneously with the development of new technological solutions for future use. These issues should be considered parallelly and with the cooperation and involvement of all stakeholders (research institutions, government agencies, local governments, businesses and users/citizens). A potential project could consist in developing, together with stakeholders, a methodology for implementing the most sensible technological solutions, taking into account environmental, social, economic and legal aspects, and demonstrating the implementation of this methodology and selected technologies in exemplary Municipalities. The development of the smart municipality idea is connected with finding answers to the following issues: 1.

Technological issues (i) (ii) (iii) (iv)

(v)

(vi) (vii) (viii)

(ix) (x)

Supply of heat/cooling, electricity and fuels (decarbonisation) Data acquisition and standardization—energy “mapping” of municipalities, assessment of demand for electricity, heating/cooling Planning of Smart Energy Systems integrating all local energy streams Analyzes of energy production and consumption throughout the year, enabling the development of the best local energy mix and helping to make wise investment decisions taking into account technical, environmental and economic aspects Demonstrations of microgrids enabling the integration of renewable and conventional sources with energy storage, cooperating with local energy system operators and providing new system services, e.g., DSR, increasing flexibility, etc. Electricity storage technologies—hybrid storage, heat/cold storage Low-emission or renewable sources of electricity and heat/cold (including e.g., biomass gasification, geothermal energy) Decarbonisation of heat and electricity generation on a micro scale (single-family house, housing estate) and macro heat and power plants—the use of hybrid systems, e.g. PV and heat pumps with energy storage, the use of low-emission fuels, e.g. LNG, hydrogen Integration of the production, storage and use of the green hydrogen systems with the existing intelligent energy system at KEZO Energy management in Intelligent Energy Systems of various scales. (a) Low-emission transport and the necessary infrastructure (individual/private, collective) (i) Tests and demonstrations of V2H (Vehicle to Home) and V2G (Vehicle to Grid) technologies (ii) Electric vehicle charging stations integrated with energy storage (iii) Hydrogen vehicle refuelling stations, buses/passenger cars integrated with the local green hydrogen production system

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(b)

The energy efficiency of buildings and production processes at enterprises (i) Modelling and management of energy systems (PV hybrids, heat pumps, warehouses, charging stations, CHP, ORC, use of low-emission LNG fuels, ammonia, hydrogen …) Management of municipal and industrial waste (including e.g., waste heat) Circular economy—industrial symbiosis, e.g., between companies, municipal entities and municipalities in order to use energy and other resources that could otherwise be wasted.

(c) (d)

2.

Environmental issues (a)

3.

Socio-economic issues (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)

(f) 4.

Mapping threats related to climate change (droughts, floods)

Social acceptance for new technologies Education Labour market (loss and creation of new jobs) Energy poverty New business models (necessary for the development of a circular economy, energy clusters, implementation of advanced technologies) enabling the cooperation of various stakeholders The sharing economy.

Legal issues (a) (b)

Legal regulations for new technologies and new business models Proposals to introduce new regulations to remove identified limitations.

As we can see, this is an issue that requires a lot of work, although if properly carried out, it can be a flashpoint for the transformation process in Poland and other countries of the world with a similar energy topology. Due to the fact that each municipality has a slightly different character depending on, for example, geographic location, the above aspects should be referred to at least 3 types of municipality. It is shown schematically in Fig. 14.5.

Rural municipality

Seaside municipality

City municipality

Fig. 14.5 Types of municipalities for the development of the smart municipality idea

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14.3 Energy Mapping and Selection of Appropriate “Clean” Technologies Energy mapping is one of the key elements in the energy transition. Appropriate determination of the energy potential in a given area (municipality, poviat, voivodship) is the first necessary element to select appropriate technologies so that they can then use the energy potential of a given region in the most effective and optimal way. The energy mapping of a specific area (classification of buildings, distribution of people, energy consumption, etc.) is an important part of building a prosumer model of a rural municipality. In one of the projects currently implemented by the Institute called TechRol, such analyzes were carried out on the example of the Przywidz Municipality located in the Pomeranian Voivodeship—Fig. 14.6. The tests were possible thanks to the kindness of the authorities of the Przywidz Municipality and the Distribution Network Operator (DSO), in this case ENERGA Operator SA. The rest of the necessary data was obtained from the National Power System (KSE) for 2018 and 2019. As part of this cooperation, valuable data was obtained, such as: • anonymized actual measurement data for the municipality area,

Fig. 14.6 The object of research—Kashubian Municipality of Przywidz in the Pomeranian Voivodeship [Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources]

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• power grid diagram, • characteristics of electric power devices, • list of transformer stations. Based on the data obtained: • an analysis of measurement data was carried out, • the characteristics and evaluation of the power grid in the municipality were made. The works were carried out by a team composed of: • • • • • •

Ph.D., Eng. Weronika Radziszewska Ph.D. hab. Jörg Verstraete Ph.D., Eng. Patryk Chaja ´ Ph.D., Eng. Dariusz Swierczy´ nski MSc Eng. Marta Kierek MSc Eng. Sebastian Byku´c

Figures 14.7, 14.8, 14.9 and Fig. 14.10 show example results regarding the classification of buildings, consumers and energy consumption in the Przywidz Municipality.

Fig. 14.7 Elements of energy mapping: classification of buildings and people—according to the results of Dr. Radziszewska and the team

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Fig. 14.8 Elements of energy mapping: energy consumption divided into tariffs—according to the results of Dr. Radziszewska and the team

Fig. 14.9 Elements of energy mapping: energy demand—according to the results of Dr. Radziszewska and the team

Figure 14.8. shows that in a statistical municipality in Poland, the share of households in the energy market is approx. 20%. The analysis conducted for the rural municipality of Przywidz shows that the share of households (G tariff group) in the total energy consumption for the municipality is 54%. Such a large difference results from the specific nature of the municipality—rural with a low degree of industrialization, and therefore perfectly suited for low-emission agricultural production. Figures 14.11 and 14.12. present an example of possible optimization of energy installations in a specific building, namely in Arena Przywidz. The calculations were made using the EnergyPRO program, produced by the Danish company EMD. This program was purchased as part of the TechRol project,

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Fig. 14.10 Elements of energy mapping: building clusters—according to the results of Dr. Radziszewska and the team

Fig. 14.11 A proposal to modify the heating and electrical installations in the Arena Przywidz. The table shows the results of calculations of operating costs for the version without and with the modification—the use of collectors and PV panels gives a Profit of about 16%—based on the results by S. Bykuc, M. Jaroszewska and P. Chaja

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Fig. 14.12 Results of calculations of thermal and electric power distribution depending on the days of operation against the building’s energy demand. Upper diagram—existing thermal installation (only gas boiler), middle and lower diagrams—calculations including modifications (collectors + PV)—based on the results of S. Bykuc, M. Jaroszewska and P. Chaja

and the skills to use it were acquired through research internships and cooperation of the IMP PAN staff with the EMD company and Danish universities. This software is used to develop combined techno-economic analyzes as well as to optimize cogeneration and trigeneration projects. It also allows for the creation of other complex energy projects with the connection of electricity and heat supply from various energy generating units. Based on the input data entered, EnergyPRO optimizes the operation of a given energy project based on technical and financial parameters. Thanks to such optimization of the operation of the installation, it is possible to develop an exact specification of energy supplies (heat, cold and electricity) depending on the demand. This program enables the development of technical and economic analyzes for many different types of projects, including cogeneration heat plants with gas engines connected to boilers and storage tanks, cogeneration installations, cogeneration installations and solar installations. A proposal of such a modification for Arena Przywidz is presented in Fig. 14.11. The existing heating system consisting of propane tanks and a gas boiler is proposed to be supplemented with solar and photovoltaic panels with the possibility of surplus electricity to the grid. The results of computer calculations for such a combination are shown in Fig. 14.12. They show a real possibility of reducing the operating costs of the building’s energy system by 16% (see the table in Fig. 14.11).

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Reference 1. H. Lunda, S. Wernerb, R. Wiltshirec, S. Svendsend, J.E. Thorsene, F. Hvelplunda, B. Vad Mathiesenf; 4th Generation District Heating (4GDH): Integrating smart thermal grids into future sustainable energy systems, Energy (vol. 68, 15 Apr 2014), pp. 1–11

Chapter 15

Technologies Necessary to Carry Out the Energy Transformation

15.1 Introduction, Presentation of the Institute’s Key Projects The assumptions regarding the energy transformation described in the previous chapter, based on the example of smart municipalities, do not exist without appropriate technological facilities. For decades, the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences has actively participated in numerous research projects, the effects of which were often directly implemented in the industrial sector. In this chapter, we will try to present a few of the most important projects, which, according to the authors, strongly contribute to the development of eco-energy in Poland and constitute an ideal basis for further activities related to the energy transformation. The assumptions and research goals of the most important and largest projects of recent years carried out at IMP PAN within science-industry research consortia are described below. Key project: The first of the important projects implemented by IMP PAN was: The “Key” POIG Project. The project titled “Model agro-energy complexes as an example of distributed cogeneration based on local and renewable energy sources” was implemented from July 2008 for over 5 years by a consortium founded by the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Gda´nsk (Consortium and Project Leader), University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Wrocław University of Technology and the Institute of Power Engineering in Warsaw—Fig. 15.1. The project was carried out under the Innovative Economy Operational Program (POIG) as a key project from the indicative list of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education and the Ministry of Regional Development.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 J. Kici´nski and P. Chaja, Climate Change, Human Impact and Green Energy Transformation, GeoPlanet: Earth and Planetary Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-69933-8_15

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Fig. 15.1 Consortium and project goals. The idea of an agro-energy complex. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

The entities constituting the consortium built the so-called Research Groups through internal orders, employing several teams from other universities and institutes to implement the project. For example, the most numerous IMP Group was an implementation team composed of employees of the IMP PAN in Gda´nsk, the Łód´z University of Technology, the Gda´nsk University of Technology, the UWM Faculty of Technical Sciences and several specialist companies. In total, several dozen research teams from all over the country were involved in the implementation of the project presented in Fig. 15.1. It was one of the first high-budget projects implemented by the Institute with a budget of PLN 40 million (Figs. 15.2, 15.3 and 15.4). A dozen or so research teams from all over the country participated in the project. The leaders of the Research Groups were: ˙ Prof. G. Zywica, Ph.D. E. Ihnatowicz, Prof. D. Karda´s—IMP PAN. Prof. J. Gołaszewski—University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn. Prof. Z. Kozanecki—Technical University of Lodz. Ph.D. W. Mi˛askowski—University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn. Prof. D. Mikielewicz—Gda´nsk University of Technology. Prof. M. Kuła˙zynski—Wroclaw ´ University of Science and Technology. Ph.D. T. Golec—Institute of Power Engineering. The main goal of the project was to develop new technologies for obtaining and processing bioenergy carriers and new technologies for converting this energy into useful heat and electricity. These technologies were to create the basis for the construction of energy sockets based on local resources of renewable energy sources, especially biomass, and contribute to the construction of agro-energy complexes. Agro-energy complexes are an effective form of implementing the so-called smallscale distributed cogeneration. The idea of an agro-energy complex as a combination of AGRO and TECHNO works as presented in an illustrative way in Fig. 15.1.

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Fig. 15.2 Conference summarizing the project results. Hotel Posejdon, Gda´nsk, May 6, 2014. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

Fig. 15.3 The exposition accompanying the summary conference. Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

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Fig. 15.4 Key project roll-up. It accompanied all project meetings

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Fig. 15.5 The prestigious Energy Globe award for the project. Achievement of the team of Prof. ˙ J. Kici´nski and Prof. G. Zywica

The National Conference summarizing the results of the project was held on May 6, 2014 at the Posejdon hotel in Gda´nsk, together with the accompanying exhibition of the developed installations. Souvenir photos from those moments are presented in Figs. 15.2 and 15.3. The results of the project were very well received both in Poland and in the world. The project received the Energy Globe Award—Fig. 15.5, and received the title of Quality of the Year in the category of research projects. The Energy Globe Award is currently the most prestigious award in the field of environmental protection. Every year, the organizers receive over 1,500 application forms from over 170 countries. The award is granted for innovative technologies and solutions that contribute to better use of natural resources, increasing energy efficiency, reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The effect of popularizing the obtained results of the project were also numerous monographs. There were 16 of them in total—Fig. 15.6. Strategic Project: Another significant research project carried out by the Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery in Gda´nsk, contributing to the energy transformation in the form promoted in this book was: Strategic Project Advanced Technologies for Energy Generation—Task 4 (Z4 PS). As part of the above project implemented in 2010–2015, the Institute, together with the industrial partner ENERGA2 Capital Group, won the competition for the

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Fig. 15.6 Front pages of monographs written as part of the project. The series has a total of 16 items

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implementation of Task 4: Development of integrated technologies for the production of fuels and energy from biomass, agricultural waste and other related to obtaining green energy. In order to implement Task 4 of this program, the Institute and the ENERGA company established a scientific-industrial consortium. They entered into a number of contracts with other entities, including the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Gda´nsk University of Technology, Silesian University of Technology, Łód´z University of Technology, Institute of Power Engineering in Warsaw, and ICHPW in Zabrze. The budget of Task 4 was PLN 110 million (PLN 70 million in subsidy from NCBiR, PLN 40 million in subsidy for industry, mainly the ENERGA CG). Thus, it was the largest research project coordinated by IMP PAN and probably the largest of its kind in the country—Fig. 15.7. As a result of the implementation of the above-mentioned project, 12 large original installations were created, some of which were model solutions for possible further use, and some were implemented. In turn, the Institute built a modern laboratory for polygeneration power plants (the largest and most modern in Poland), including low-power turbogenerators of their own design, which have no counterparts on the domestic market—Fig. 15.8. On November 23, 2015, a conference summarizing the results of the Task 4 Strategic Project was held at the European Solidarity Centre in Gda´nsk. It was an important event not only for the community of the Institute. The photos in Figs. 15.9, 15.10, 15.11 document these moments.

Fig. 15.7 Strategic Project—Research Task No. 4 coordinated by IMP PAN within the scientificindustrial consortium IMP—ENERGA CG. The largest research project in the country at that time (budget PLN 110 million) and a rare case of cooperation between science and industry on such a scale

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Fig. 15.8 The IMP PAN laboratory of polygeneration plants built with the Strategic Project funds. The largest laboratory of this type in the country

Although the main goal of the project was not direct industrial implementations or economic analysis (business models). Nevertheless, the results were collected for which the industrial operator of the installations developed under the project, i.e., the ENERGA CG, was able to provide the necessary Professional data. However, all the laboratory stands, due to their research nature, could not provide such data. The Z4 PS task contributed to the development of broadly understood eco-energy, including the development of prosumer or civic energy in Poland. As already mentioned in part I of this book, Civic Energy is a beautiful vision in which the citizen (or local government community) is the subject and not the object of the energy market, and has a virtual advisor in intelligent networks and in data processing technologies in the digital “cloud”. As part of the Z4 PS project, two modern cogeneration installations were built ˙ in the municipalities of Zychlin and Szepietowo, which can be an example for the construction of further Autonomous Energy Regions ARE (or otherwise Municipal Energy Centres) dedicated to municipal self-government Centres using local Renewable Energy Sources. ARE is a great opportunity for the Polish countryside, which was repeatedly stated by the Minister of Agriculture. Regardless of the installations and test stands that were the main objective of the project, the Z4 PS task developed and published a series of 16 monographs, 140 publications in scientific journals, and 277 publications in other journals. In

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Fig. 15.9 Conference summarizing the results of the Strategic Project. Task 4. European Solidarity Centre—Gda´nsk 23/11/2015

addition, the project generated 14 patents, including two European and 3 utility models (Fig. 15.12). The innovative technologies proposed under the project (e.g., low-power cogeneration plants, energy storage, materials for PV cells) can also be used for plus-energy construction, thus improving the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing the emission intensity of our housing estates. As part of the research work carried out within the project, a number of innovative technologies tailored to the needs of sustainable energy were developed, both for the needs of the smart municipality and prosumer energy. It is in this aspect that the great social and economic importance of this project can be seen. TechRol Project: Currently, the Institute is implementing another large research project titled Strategic Project BIOSTRATEG III Acronym TechRol. The TechRol project was launched by the NCBiR in 2017 and its completion is scheduled for mid-2021. It is still in progress at the time of writing this book. The main goal of the project is to develop a prosumer model of a rural municipality and the principles of low-emission agricultural production. Therefore, this project fits perfectly into the concept of Civic Energy, which we discussed in part I of this book, the more so as the subject of the project also includes the issues of

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Fig. 15.10 Scenes from the Strategic Project Summary Conference. In the photos: A. Tersa— President of the ENERGA Capital Group, J. Kici´nski—Project Manager and E. Domke, K. Trzebiatowska, W. Cholewa, W. Ostachowicz and others

intelligent management of energy resources, energy mapping, and the selection of appropriate RES technologies. The technologies developed as part of the project are tested on a real facility which is the Przywidz Municipality in Kashubia. This municipality is therefore the implementation partner of the project. The project is carried out by a consortium composed of scientific entities: • Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery of the Polish Academy of Sciences in Gda´nsk— Coordinator • Warsaw University of Life Sciences—SGGW • Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation—IUNG • University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn—UWM. and industrial partners: • • • • • •

BLUETOMATION Sp. z o.o. EcoSolar Dorota Półtorak Ekotechlab Marek Klein QUERCUS Sp. z o.o. Instytut Energii Sp. z o.o. IMPLASER—Innovative Technologies Sp. z o.o.

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Fig. 15.11 Strategic Project Summary Conference. With President Lech Wał˛esa at the Banquet at the European Centre of Excellence in Gda´nsk

• ForéF—Jakub Fajfer • ENKI Sp. z o.o. The substantive aspect of the project is managed by the Project Manager—Prof. Jan Kicinski ´ and the Coordinators of the two main thematic blocks of Prof. Marcin ˙ Lackowski and Prof. Grzegorz Zywica. Figure 15.13 shows the composition of the consortium and the main tasks of the project. To obtain the main goals listed in Fig. 15.13. research teams involved in the project have to carry out a number of more detailed tasks. We will not present their extensive descriptions and expected results here. They are available in the competition materials of the project at the NCBiR. Nevertheless, some selected information is worth presenting in more detail. Achieving the main goal, i.e., the development of a prosumer model of rural municipalities, requires an analysis of energy demand Profiles in various averaging

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Fig. 15.12 Sample covers of a series of monographs published as part of the Z4 PS. The series has a total of 16 items

periods (daily, weekly, monthly, annual), which in turn will enable a rational investment decision to be made in the construction of renewable energy sources (power, type, place connection), e.g., in the energy cluster formula. It will also be necessary to determine the density of heat and electricity demand in a selected rural municipality, and thus to carry out the energy mapping process. During the project implementation, it is also planned to develop a system for intelligent management of the production and consumption of energy carriers. This will enable simulations of virtual energy systems and optimal allocation of available resources for selected rural areas. Therefore, the following are of key importance in the project: • research in the field of energy mapping of rural areas • research work on the analysis and planning of the development of local Intelligent Energy Systems combining heat, electricity, and fuel streams, taking into account clean transport, renewable energy, and socio-economic aspects. The whole project consists of seven WP (Work Packages) tasks. A brief description is provided below. As part of the project, eco-energy technologies will be developed, they will contribute to the sustainable development of rural areas and will popularize low-emission agricultural production. Therefore, they concern scientific research and development works in the field of the natural environment, agriculture, and forestry, with particular emphasis on rational management of natural resources and limiting the impact of these areas of the economy on climate change.

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Fig. 15.13 TechRol Project——consortium composition, main goals, and implementation partner—Przywidz Municipality. Original drawing of the author of the monograph

The project takes a comprehensive approach and covers a variety of issues that are key to the efficient management of resources available in rural areas while reducing the impact of human activity on the environment. The project will start with an analysis of the actual consumption and demand for various forms of energy and its carriers in rural areas (WP1). Based on this analysis, a model of a prosumer rural municipality will be developed, taking into account the possibility of using new technologies developed in subsequent tasks of the project. In the second task (WP2), technologies will be developed enabling the processing of waste from agricultural production into forms that further its use for energy purposes. As part of the project, work will be carried out on effective methods of drying and oxygen degradation of organic waste, straw gasification, low-cost technology of dry fermentation of biological waste, as well as an innovative syngas purification system for cogeneration systems. The third task (WP3) will be devoted to the development of renewable energy sources dedicated to agricultural production space. Innovative installations for the production of electricity from locally available resources will be developed, including waste heat and heat generated in the combustion of agricultural and forest biomass. For identified, locally available sources of low-temperature waste heat, systems will be developed based on the Rankine cycle with a low-boiling factor, enabling the use of thermal energy in a temperature range not possible with other

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technologies. As complementary research in the third task (WP3), (works on the use of other renewable energy sources in rural areas will be carried out. The results of research carried out in the tasks (WP1–WP3) will be used in the fourth task (WP4), the subject of which will be intelligent management of natural resources, taking into account environmental aspects. A system for intelligent management of the production and consumption of energy carriers will be created. This will enable conducting simulations of virtual energy systems and optimal allocation of available resources for selected rural areas The fourth task (WP4) will also cover the issue of heat supply to residential, farm, and production buildings in accordance with the principles of low-emission economy. Environmental assessment of all proposed technologies will be carried out in task five (WP5). This includes checking emissions from various sources in rural areas and assessment of the environmental impact of the new method of obtaining and using energy. Development works of the proposed technologies will be carried out by industrial partners in task 6 (WP6). Preparatory work for the implementation will be carried out in the seventh task (WP7) and will focus mainly on activities aimed at granting ownership rights to the developed solutions and the development of technical implementation documentation. The technologies resulting from the implementation of the project are in line with the idea of sustainable development, in particular with the development of distributed energy in rural areas, so characteristic of Poland and other industrially underdeveloped countries (Fig. 15.14).

Fig. 15.14 WP work packages making up the main goal

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15.2 Municipal Energy Centre (GCE)—A Computer System for Managing Energy Resources in Municipalities As part of the TechRol project, the BLUETOMATION company, in cooperation with the IMP PAN, is developing an original computer system for managing energy resources in municipalities. It supports municipalities by managing the methods of producing and consuming heat and gas electricity in the area, and the method of installing new elements to the network. The system is developed by a team composed of: Edyta Wolczy´nska—team leader. Maciej Borówka. Edwin Dudziak. Jakub de Biberstein Kazimirski. Almar Suarez Fernandez. in cooperation with the staff from IMP PAN: Sebastian Byku´c. Patryk Chaja. The key role is played by the cooperation with the authorities of the Przywidz Municipality, the implementation partner of the TechRol project. The developed computer system allows for the collection of measurement data and the simulation of changes in the power network, with particular emphasis on the issue of lawful collection, storage, transformation, and utilization of biomass. The issue of compliance with the law is important because biomass is treated as waste in Polish legislation. Therefore, any storage, transport, and disposal of it are subject to specific legal regimes and must be implemented based on laws and the ordinance on waste management. In the project, the recipients and users of the system are to be people who conduct scientific research, but most of all the Municipality Office. Thanks to the implementation of such a solution, the Office will be able to recognize the energy balance of the municipality for each type of energy and carry out a series of “what-if” simulations which allow understanding the impact of changes in the municipality’s energy system on its finances. To meet the above-mentioned assumptions, the system consists of several modules cooperating with each other: 1.

2.

Data collection module: enables the collection of data on energy flows (electricity, heat, and gas) using physical meters. These meters (independent of the energy supplier’s meters) are installed both in municipal facilities and in private buildings. The system also collects data from independent counting solutions based on cloud computing. Biomass management (municipality). Biomass is treated as a potential source of energy and as such is included in the energy balance of a municipality. The

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system allows for accurate monitoring of biomass flows, their transformations (drying, etc.), each time calculating the impact of these activities on the stored energy for use by the municipality. Visualization module: allows for the analysis of both consumption/production and cost/revenue, taking into account all types of energy used in a municipality, with particular emphasis on biomass: its storage sites, production sites, and transformation into energy. The simulation module connects the previous modules. It allows the user to copy the configuration of a real municipality, introduce changes to it and then recalculate the energy balance after the designed transformation. The system enables the addition or removal of prosumer objects and devices with any characteristics entered by the operator as a function of environmental parameters.

The simulation allows, for example, to check how the balance of the municipality will be affected by covering the roofs of communal buildings with photovoltaic panels, etc. It may also allow checking the operation of biomass incineration plants, taking into account the data on the production of biomass and changes in the outside temperature affecting the efficiency of the combustion process. A municipality deciding to implement all modules of such a system receives a tool which allows, in a relatively quick and cheap way, to design changes in their energy networks (not only electric) to adapt them to the upcoming challenges. This allows planning the modernization of the existing elements of the power grid (e.g., a school boiler room) and its evolution by adding new devices producing and consuming energy. In addition, the system takes into account the specificity of the rural municipality (Przywidz Municipality—project partner), allowing for inclusion in the energy balance of the issue of biomass production and processing. Considering that the cost of investing in smart grid solutions is a very heavy burden for rural municipalities, earlier analysis and simulation of changes in the network allows reducing the risk of errors and earlier preparation for the upcoming challenges. Figures 15.15. and 15.16. present descriptions of the main modules of the designed computer system.

15.3 Energy Technologies for Agricultural Municipalities Due to the fact that Poland is a largely agricultural country, therefore a very important point of the energy transformation is the sector related to food production. Appropriate technologies intended for this sector are presented in the following subsections.

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Fig. 15.15 Main modules of the designed computer system for managing energy resources in the municipality—drawing E. Wolczy´nska + team

Fig. 15.16 A more detailed description of the system modules—figure E. Wolczy´nska + team

15.3.1 Installation of Gasification of Straw Bales Straw is one of the largest renewable energy sources in Poland; it can be estimated to be at least 10 million tons per year. Straw as a fuel has several unique features—it

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Fig. 15.17 One of the many installations developed at the IMP PAN as part of the BIOSTRATEG TechRol project. Straw gasifier. The work of the team of Prof. D. Karda´s

is in the form of rolled and pressed bales, it does not require any processing, it is homogeneous and ready for use in energy devices. There are tens of millions of such bales in the Polish fields, which can become a fuel for the production of syngas—good and cheap fuel, suitable for use in combustion engines and turbines. A system for gasifying straw bales with the use of air as an oxidant has been developed at IMP PAN, with the expected technical parameters being: calorific value of syngas: >6 MJ/Nm3 , “gas” power 150 KW—Fig. 15.17. The installation consists of a gasification reactor with a system of five coaxial air nozzles, a container for three straw bales, a bale transport and feeding system, an ash collection system and a control cabinet. The obtained gas, after being cleaned of tars and dust, can be used for combustion in an engine or gas turbine for the purpose of producing electricity. The author of the concept and design is Prof. Dariusz Karda´s, in cooperation with the ensemble: Jacek Kluska, Mateusz Ochnio, Łukasz Heda and Paweł Kazimierski. The installation contractor is Remex from Dobre Miasto. As part of the Biostrateg TechRol project, another method was developed and tested, namely the pressure–thermal technology for the treatment of lignocellulosic waste, eg straw—Fig. 15.18. Teams from IMP PAN (MSc. Izabela Konkol, MSc. Lesław Swierczek, Prof. Adam Cenian) and the company IMPLaser Innovative Technologies (MSc. Bartosz Pietrzykowski, MSc. Lech Ciurzy´nski) participated in the work.

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Fig. 15.18 Pressure and thermal installation for the treatment of lignocellulosic waste in Luba´n and the effects of treatment—straw loses its hydrophobic character. The work of the team of Prof. A. Cenian

The results of the pressure–thermal treatment are changes in the properties of the substrates, e.g., loss of straw hydrophobicity and much higher biogas-Profitability of the anaerobic fermentation process. Preparations are underway to implement the technology in Pomeranian biogas plants.

15.3.2 Microturbines in Food Production The ORC microturbine cogeneration system with a capacity of 10 KW has been designed to use waste heat from the food production process. The waste heat will come from the food roasting process line in the plant producing decaffeinated beverages based on cereals and chicory. The pilot installation will cooperate with the chicory roasting line, where the temperature of the outlet gases is approx. 300 °C—Fig. 8.20. The low-boiling factor used is non-flammable and safe for the environment. Thanks to this solution, the operation of the ORC system will not interfere with the production process in any way and will not have a negative impact on it. The benefits of using the ORC cogeneration system include the possibility of generating own electricity (up to 50,000 kWh per year) and the possibility of managing waste heat energy for one’s own needs.

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Fig. 15.19 ORC microturbine installation using waste heat from the food production process. The ˙ work of the team of Prof. G. Zywica

The direct benefit to the environment is a significant reduction in the temperature of the exhaust gases (by about 150°). The concept and design of the installation was developed by a team of Prof. G. ˙ Zywica (Fig. 15.19).

15.3.3 Purification of Syngas The issue of purifying syngas from contaminants so that it can be used in the operation of piston engines is one of the key issues in the use of the gasification process in cogeneration. As part of the Biostrateg program, IMP PAN develops treatment methods based on water scrubbers, oil scrubbers, and plasma methods. Figure 15.20 shows the view of the “Glid Arc” discharge during the syngas cleaning efficiency test. The works are carried out by teams of Prof. M. Lackowski and Prof. M. Dors.

15.3.4 Agricultural Biogas Plant. Installation in Bałdy The Farmyard Biogas Plant (PBR) is an installation for the production of biomethane from plant substrates and waste from animal production, located at the Educational and Research Station of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Bałdy. The facility

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Fig. 15.20 One of the syngas purification methods developed at IMP PAN. The concept of using plasma. The works of Prof. M. Lackowski and Prof. M. Dors

was made on a full technical scale and equipped with a set of control and measurement equipment that allows monitoring of the ongoing processes. The installation includes a hydrolyser, a fermentation and post-fermentation reactor, a biogas filter and a boiler room with an exchanger room and a control room. The production of energy in the biogas plant was combined with the production of heat for the needs of the biogas plant. The installation, in addition to the utilitarian function of generating thermal energy from biomethane, enables testing the efficiency of biogasification of various types of plant substrates using a number of proprietary devices and technological solutions. Additionally, it is possible to support the process of designing a biogas plant with original models enabling optimization of the construction parameters of a biogas plant. The installation in Bałdy is an achievement of the team of Prof. J. Gołaszewski from UWM in Olsztyn (Fig. 15.21).

15.3.5 Installation for Obtaining Water Biomass As part of the research work carried out in cooperation with the University of Warmia and Mazury (UWM) in Olsztyn, a pilot station was developed and constructed on a semi-technical scale for the separation of microalgae biomass from natural water reservoirs. The prototype installation was located in Frombork on the Vistula Lagoon. This original and patented technology is of great importance not only in terms of obtaining biomass, but also in terms of environmental protection. Achievement of the team of Prof. J. Gołaszewski from UWM (Fig. 15.22).

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Fig. 15.21 Baldy. Prototype of the Farmyard Biogas Plant. Achievement of the team of Prof. J. Gołaszewski

Fig. 15.22 Separation of microalgae from natural water reservoirs. Installation in Frombork. Achievement of the team of Prof. J. Gołaszewski

15.4 Large Installations on an Industrial Scale In addition to technologies directly intended for the agricultural sector, the Institute also has extensive experience in building and commissioning large industrial installations. Most of them were created as part of one of the key projects implemented at the Institute. As part of the Advanced Technologies for Energy Sourcing program launched by the National Centre for Research and Development in 2010–2015, the Institute and its industrial partner, the ENERGA Capital Group, won the tender for the implementation of Task 4: Development of integrated technologies for the production of fuels and energy from biomass, agricultural waste and others related to obtaining green energy. Below, the reader will find examples of implementations of large industrial installations carried out with the participation of IMP PAN.

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˙ 15.4.1 “Zychlin” Installation It is one of the three flagship installations built with the participation of the scientific ˙ staff of IMP PAN. It was built in the Zychlin municipality in place of the old boiler house and reflects the idea of building modern cogeneration systems using local renewable energy resources, i.e., building the so-called Autonomous Energy Regions ARE. This installation solves the problem faced by approx. 300 similar municipal heating plants in the country, namely what to do with excess heat in the summer. A multi-module structure has been proposed here, but one ORC module (biomass boiler + ORC turbine) has a power tailored to the summer needs and works at full capacity all year round, producing additional electricity, i.e., working in a cogeneration system. The remaining gas and coal modules) will be added depending on the energy needs of the municipality—Fig. 15.23. The project manager was Prof. P. Lampart from IMP PAN and Eng. M. Laskowski from the ENERGA Group. For the concept and technology of modernization of municipal heating plants, and especially for the development of the ARE idea that aligns with the assumptions of the energy transformation described in this book, the team carrying out these works under the supervision of Prof. J. Kici´nski received the First Degree Prime Minister’s Award—Fig. 15.24.

˙ Fig. 15.23 Zychlin installation. The proposed modernization meets the needs of many similar municipal heating plants in the country and gives the answer to the question: what to do with the excess heat in the summer? Author’s own drawing, processing information from other publicly available sources

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Fig. 15.24 Prime Minister’s Award for work on the implementation of the ARE idea—Autonomous Energy Regions

15.4.2 “Szepietowo” Installation Another large installation built (i.e., in a municipality on an industrial scale) under Task 4 of the Strategic Project (Z4 PS) is the pilot Szepietowo cogeneration system (PUK Szepietowo) with a combustion engine and an innovative syngas purification system. It is a large chip gasification plant that produces pellets and electricity as a result. The old gasifier, existing so far in the Szepietowo municipality, using wood chips from nearby sawmills, produced low-quality and calorific syngas, which made it impossible to burn it in a combustion engine and thus to cogenerate it. The aim of the project was therefore a highly advanced modernization of not only the gasifier itself, but also technological processes enabling the production of high-quality pellets and electricity. As part of the Z4 PS task, the gasifier was modernized, enabling increased heat production (up to 5 MWc) necessary for the production of pellets. After cleaning, part of the syngas stream was directed to the 50 KWe engine for electricity production.

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Fig. 15.25 Szepietowo installation. General view of the cogeneration system with the EMG gasifier. On the right—syngas cleaning system

The conducted tests showed the full operability of the tested cogeneration system cooperating with the dryer, including the stable maintenance of key parameters, such as the flow rate of syngas flowing into the cogeneration module, generated electric power, flue gas temperature, temperature of the air flowing into the dried chip bed. The project managers were: Prof. A. Cenian, Prof. M. Lackowski from IMP PAN and Eng. M. Laskowski from the ENERGA Group (Fig. 15.25).

15.4.3 “Luban” ´ Installation This installation was fully technologically launched and after a thorough economic analysis, it found business entities interested in its implementation. The SFR biogas treatment system is the most attractive implementation product of the Institute in recent years. In the field of enrichment production technology and the use of biogas, a microbiogas plant system with an Energa 20/PG cogeneration system with a capacity of 10 kWe/30kWc was designed, built and tested, and a biogas enrichment system with an SFR absorption system (with a rotating liquid) with a processing capacity of 200 m3 of biogas (achievement of scientists from Gda´nsk University of Technology—Prof. J. Hupek). Research into micro-installations using bio-waste for the production of energy and renewable fuels is extremely important, which may constitute an additional source of income for owners of small and medium-sized farms (