China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022): Low Carbon Development Strategy and Transformation Path for Carbon Neutral Automotive 9811975019, 9789811975011

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Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.

China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022) Low Carbon Development Strategy and Transformation Path for Carbon Neutral Automotive

China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022)

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.

China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022) Low Carbon Development Strategy and Transformation Path for Carbon Neutral Automotive

CATARC-ADC Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. Tianjin, China

ISBN 978-981-19-7501-1 ISBN 978-981-19-7502-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8 Jointly published with China Machine Press Co., Ltd. The print edition is not for sale in China (Mainland). Customers from China (Mainland) please order the print book from: China Machine Press Co., Ltd. ISBN of the Co-Publisher’s edition: 978-7-111-71174-2 © China Machine Press 2023 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publishers, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publishers nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publishers remain neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Editorial Board

Director of the Editorial Board Yi Feng Deputy Directors of the Editorial Board Peng Zhang Dongchang Zhao Shujie Xu Mingnan Zhao Executive Director of the Editorial Board Xin Sun Members of the Editorial Board Achim Teuber Amir F. N. Abdul-Manan Bing Qian Bo Wu Changsu Song Changxing Ji Changyou Xia Chunhui Liu Cuimei Ma Dahai Meng Deqing Guo Guoqiang Xu Hongjie Zhang Huanran Liu Hui Guo Jiaang Li Jianxin Li v

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Jiaxiang Ren Jin Zhu Jing Liu Jinlong Wu Kefan Mo Kun Chen Li Pan Lina Shi Linfeng Lu Man Luo Matthias Ballweg Muxin Liu Peng Han Ping Fan Qiuping Li Rui Su Ruoxin Wang Shaoliang Zhong Shuwen Liu Ting Zhang Tongzhu Zhang Wei Chang Xi Liang Xiaoling Zhang Xingyu Xue Xinzhu Zheng Yan Zhang Yifei Kang Yinghao Liu Yue Ren Yuping Zhang Zhen Wang Zhenlu Lei Zhipeng Sun

Editorial Board

Advisory Board

Members of the Advisory Board Aimin Ma Fuqiang Yang Guibin Lin Jianhua Pan Jiannan Wang Junfeng Li Kebin He Qimin Chai Qingchen Chao Chunxiu Tian Fengchang Wu Xiliang Zhang Yonghong Li Zheng Li

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Foreword

The greenhouse gas emission from human activities, as proved by tremendous scientific evidences, is an important cause for the current global climate warming, especially since the industrial revolution. In view of this, the Paris Agreement came into being, which clearly stipulates to hold the global average temperature rise from the level before the industrial revolution to below 2 °C and even below 1.5 °C. In order to achieve such temperature control goal, all signatories shall, on the basis of equality, achieve a balance between the anthropogenic GHG emission and the sink and removal (i.e., carbon neutrality) during the second half of the century. On September 22, 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that China would strive to hit peak emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The automotive industry, as the pillar industry of China’s national economy, shows important carbon emission characteristics such as rapid growth of total carbon emissions and strong driving force to the whole industry chain. The adoption of 30/60 goals (i.e., achieving peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and hitting carbon neutrality by 2060) meets the actual need of China to actively participate in international climate governance and demonstrate our sense of responsibility as a major country and also creates a big opportunity for the green, low-carbon, and high-quality transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry. The automotive industry should lead other industries in China to realize net zero carbon emission and pull or push the decarbonization of upstream and downstream industry chains with suitable pathways selected, enabling China’s independent automotive brands to grow from big automotive brands to strong automotive brands. The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is a critical strategic period for the green and low-carbon transformation and upgrading of the automotive industry. In 2021, China became the world’s largest automobile producer and consumer with a vehicle population exceeded 300 million. China’s automotive industry has been under the transformation from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and its carbon emission reduction is crucial to the successful achievement of the carbon peak goal. While actively promoting green and low-carbon development, the automotive industry is also facing some opportunities and challenges, for example, what carbon reduction paths are available for passenger vehicle enterprises to choose? At what stage should ix

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the path be switched? What is the effect of transformation? How can commercial vehicle enterprises formulate market-oriented strategies as well as carbon emission reduction goals and paths? How can the automotive industry become an outstanding practitioner of the “30/60” goals? In order to promote the carbon emission reduction of the automotive industry, Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CATARC-ADC) has been devoted in the on automotive carbon emission management for many years. Since 2018, CATARC-ADC has established the World Automotive Life Cycle Assessment Working Group (WALCA), and initiated the China Automobile Low Carbon Action Plan (CALCP). Since then, it has accounted for and released the research results on the life cycle carbon emissions of more than 15,000 passenger vehicle models for five consecutive years. In 2022, CATARC-ADC carried out a study on China Automobile Low Carbon Action Plan (2022) together with 20 research institutes at home and abroad. This study first, based on the China Automotive Life Cycle Assessment Model (CALCM), accounts for the life cycle carbon emission of single vehicle, enterprise, and fleet of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles sold in China in 2021 and analyzes and publicizes the current life cycle carbon emission of China’s automobile enterprises and products; secondly, with carbon neutrality of the automotive industry as focus, puts forward from different perspectives ten transition paths, including clean electricity; vehicle electrification; fuel decarbonization; low-carbon material; production digitalization; transportation intelligence; shared mobility; resource recycling; carbon capture, utilization and storage; and product ecologicalization, sets up three scenarios namely reference scenario, low-carbon scenario, and enhanced low-carbon scenario, and then fully discusses the carbon emission reduction potential of different paths under these scenarios; finally, based on the research results and the challenges facing the automotive industry at home and abroad under the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, points out policy measures and strategic suggestions for the lowcarbon development of China’s automotive industry, with a view to supporting the formulation of national carbon emission policies, promoting the R&D and application of low-carbon technologies, leading the automotive industry to achieve the carbon neutrality goal, and promoting the higher quality, more efficient, and more sustainable development of automotive industry. Yi Feng is the director of the Editorial Board of this book, and Peng Zhang, Dongchang Zhao, Shujie Xu, and Mingnan Zhao are the deputy directors of the Editorial Board. Xin Sun, the executive director of the Editorial Board, is responsible for the determination of the overall idea and key points of the book, the revision as well as the coordination and organization, and Jinlong Wu is responsible for the final compilation and edit. Chapter 1 was drafted by Hongjie Zhang; Chap. 2 by Hongjie Zhang and Jianxin Li; Chap. 3 by Jiaang Li, Bing Qian, Changxing Ji, Huanran Liu, and Jianxin Li; Chap. 4 by Jinlong Wu, Cuimei Ma, Lina Shi, Li Pan, Yifei Kang, Dahai Meng, Xingyu Xue, Amir F.N. Abdul-Manan, Shaoliang Zhong, Yinghao Liu, Jiaxiang Ren, Bo Wu, Jun Gu, Jin Zhu, Kefan Mo, Hui Guo, Ruoxin Wang, Jing Liu, Xiaoling Zhang, Peng Han, Kun Chen, Xinzhu Zheng, Yue Ren, Yuping Zhang,

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Matthias Ballweg, Achim Teuber, Qiuping Li, Xi Liang, Muxin Liu, Changyou Xia, Changsu Song, and Zhen Wang; Chap. 5 by Zhenlu Lei and Jianxin Li; Chap. 6 by Linfeng Lu; and Chap. 7 by Tongzhu Zhang, Linfeng Lu, and Hongjie Zhang. May 2022

Editorial Board

Preface

In 2022, all countries around the world are still suffering from the profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially the impact on the industrial structure, economic policies, public health, and people’s lives. Just like the coronavirus pandemic, climate change is also a major and urgent global challenge facing humankind. We can observe that during the past decades, more frequent extreme climate events are increasingly threatening the health and survival of organisms, and in view of this, combating climate change is the most significant and urgent problem facing humanity today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the United Nations pointed out that climate change is a real challenge faced by all countries in the world, and as the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from human activities are driving the warming of global climate at an unprecedented rate, it is urgent to take actions to slow down and adapt to the climate change. In 2015, nearly 200 countries and regions around the world reached the Paris Agreement on climate change, jointly committed to peaking the global GHG emissions as soon as possible and achieving zero GHG emissions during the second half of this century. On the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) held in Glasgow in 2021, participants agreed that global climate change is no longer a future challenge, but is already an immediate threat. In order to achieve the goals set in the Paris Agreement and actively counter the climate crisis, major countries have formulated or are formulating their own medium/long-term low-carbon development strategies and have strengthened their actions in all aspects to promote the transformation to a green and low-carbon economy. China, as a contracting party of the Paris Agreement, announced in September 2020 to the world that it would strive to peak the carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. As of October 2021, 143 signatories to the Paris Agreement have updated their national determined contributions (NDC), which account for 94.1% of the global total carbon emissions; 132 countries, which account for 88% of the global total carbon emissions, 90% of the global GDP, and 85% of the global human population, have announced their carbon neutrality goals. With the aggravated climate change and the increasing shortage of global energies and resources, low-carbon economy has become the general trend of international xiii

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trade. Since the 1990s, China has been the destination of the fourth international industrial transfer, which together with the development of export-oriented economy in recent decades is believed by some people being the most direct and chief cause for the huge carbon emissions in China. After entering the twenty-first century, China has saw rapid development in economy and society, and accordingly, energy consumption has increased substantially, with the consumption of standard coal increasing from 2.3 billion tons in 2004 to 4.98 billion tons in 2020. In addition, China’s energy structure has been dominated by fossil energies such as coal for a long term, causing serious ecological problems such as air pollution as well as continuously increasing total CO2 emissions in the energy sector, about 40% of which are produced by the power industry, whose annual coal consumption accounts for about 50% of the total coal consumption in China. We should note that, alongside the potential, there are huge challenges in China’s low-carbon development. First, the manufacturing sector, with its high energy and material consumption and low added-value rate, is still in the middle and low end of the international industrial value chain, posing daunting tasks of economic structural adjustment and industrial upgrading. Second, coal consumption still accounts for a high proportion of energy use. CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption are about 30% larger than the world average, making the task of energy structural optimization formidable. Third, energy consumption per unit of GDP is still high at 1.5 times the world average and 2–3 times that of developed countries. Establishment of a green and low-carbon economic system is arduous work. Addressing climate change is the common mission of humankind and meets the domestic demand for sustainable development. General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed that China should participate in the course of addressing climate change actively instead of passively. In 2020, China’s per capita CO2 emissions dropped by 48.4% from the 2005 level, higher than the target of 40–45% that China has promised to the international community, and accompanying this, China’s economic aggregate exceeded 100 trillion yuan, the per capita GDP exceeded 10,000 USD for the second year, and the per capita disposable income of rural residents in poor areas increased by 5.6%–12588 yuan, with 5.51 million of poor rural people lifted out of poverty. All the data show that policies and actions for addressing climate change will not hinder economic development, but will achieve the co-benefits of cultivating new industries and markets, boosting employment, and improving people’s livelihood. Therefore, we need to maintain strategic resolve and insist on a green and low-carbon development philosophy to promote and lead the climate governance and the transformation to green and low-carbon economy. At present, all sectors and industries in China, of course including automotive industry, have been accelerating their low-carbon transformation and innovation as a response to the global trend. All the big automobile countries in the world have strengthened their strategic planning and policy supports for green and low-carbon development to promote industrial upgrading, maintain the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain, and improve the level of technological innovation, with a final aim to seizing the first chance of competition in future. Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, China’s automotive industry has been a very

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important sector for investment and investment attraction in China, and especially after China’s accession to WTO, China’s automotive industry has embraced a rapid development. Even when the financial crisis broken out globally, the vehicle sales in Chinese market were still growing against the trend. So far, China has become the largest automobile market in the world, and it has also made a lot of contributions to the low-carbon and green transformation, including significantly improving production efficiency, continuously increasing the application of recyclable materials, developing and popularizing small-displacement vehicles, rapidly improving fuel economy, promoting the development of electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, and developing the used car trading market and automobile recycling business, among which, the most important action is to improve fuel economy, implement stricter automobile exhaust emission standards, and continue to promote the electrification of vehicles. General Secretary Xi Jinping declared that the development of new energy vehicles is the only way for China to transform from a big automobile country into a powerful automobile country. For China, there are only 30 years left to achieve the emission reduction rate that the developed countries are far from achieving. That is to say, China has to ensure an average annual emission reduction rate of 9% from 2030 to 2060. According to the statistics of the World Resources Institute (WRI), the carbon emissions from power generation and heating sector, manufacturing and construction sector, and transport sector accounted for more than 72% of the total carbon emissions in China, and the automotive industry is not only closely related to those three sectors and our national economic life, but also one of our pillar industries. At present, China’s annual vehicle output has exceeded 20 million, and the carbon emissions from the automotive industry accounted for about 8% of the total carbon emissions in China. To sum up, China’s automotive industry is an indispensable part for accelerating “carbon neutrality” as well as energy conservation and emission reduction and is obliged to be a promoter of green and low-carbon transformation, which will not only accelerate the pace of new energy transformation of the automotive industry, but also brings for it unprecedented challenges and opportunities. With the introduction of carbon neutrality, China’s automotive industry faces a series of challenges. First, the automotive industry is large in scale and highly concerned by the whole society. As an integrated industry, its development coexists with the pressure of carbon emissions, and considering that the automotive industry has a very long industry chain, its carbon emission reduction is of representative significance; second, the automotive industry faces rapid change in international economic and trade mechanism and the market competition environment; third, the automotive industry, in order to achieve the carbon control goals, is required to cooperate with upstream industries (such as metallurgy industry, electronics industry, mechanical industry, and chemical industry) and downstream industries (such as logistics industry, transportation industry, leasing industry, and others), so as to form a huge system related to the national economy and the people’s livelihood which will play a crucial spillover effect on the management of GHG emissions of vehicle. Currently under the “CASE” (Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric) concept, a vehicle has already been upgraded from a machine consisting of sofa and four

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wheels into a machine consisting of a mobile computer and a mobile storage device, and thus for the carbon emission control of vehicles, we should look at and also look beyond the automotive industry. As for the upstream energy problem, without the transformation of energy industry, it is basically impossible for the manufacturing industry to achieve low-carbon transformation; then as for the problems involved in the whole industry chain and the whole life cycle, carbon emission reduction shall be extended to the whole life cycle from manufacturing to disposal and also to all supply chains, that is to say, carbon emission reduction shall be implemented not only in manufacturing, production, and logistics of product, but also in the product use. This book, based on the life cycle concept and with the whole automotive industry chain as focus, collects comprehensive and accurate data as supporting materials for demonstration and makes thought-provoking conclusions, providing a significant reference for the way to strengthen the upstream and downstream linkage and system integration of carbon neutrality solutions in the automotive industry chain and revealing the development direction of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality course of China’s automotive industry. This study will play an important role in the development of automotive industry and its upstream and downstream industries, provide scientific basis for the analysis of carbon emission reduction pathways and also decision-making basis for the formulation of carbon neutrality strategies for China’s automotive industry, stimulate the green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of China’s automotive industry, and also show to the world how brilliant our China is. Tianjin, China

Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd.

Contents

1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry . . . . . . . 1.1.1 Status-Quo and Trend of Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . 1.1.2 Status-Quo of GHG Emissions from China’s Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.3 Impact of Climate Change on China’s Automotive Industry Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Import and Export of China’s Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Consensus on Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive Industry and Countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Research Framework and Overall Idea of this Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles . . . . . . . 2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model for Vehicles . . . . . 2.1.1 Determination of Purpose and Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.2 Vehicle Inventory Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Vehicle Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Methods . . . . 2.2.2 Fuel Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Life Cycle Carbon Emissions Per Unit Mileage . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Accounting Method for Enterprise Average Life Cycle Carbon Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 1 1 3 4 5 8 9 12 13 15 15 15 18 20 20 27 29 29 30 31

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2.4.2

Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Commercial Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China in 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.1.1 Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicles of Different Fuel Types . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.1.2 Accounting Results for Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Passenger Vehicles at Different Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Commercial Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 3.2.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Light-Duty Trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 3.2.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Heavy-Duty Trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 3.2.3 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 3.3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.3.1 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets . . . . . . . 101 3.4.1 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 3.4.2 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Commercial Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 4 Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Overall Transformation Pathway Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Transformation Pathways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Scenario Setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Path 1: Clean Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Path 2: Vehicle Electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Path 3: Mitigating GHG Emissions of Petroleum-Based Transport Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4 Path 4: Low-Carbon Material . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.5 Path 5: Production Digitalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.6 Path 6: Transportation Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.7 Path 7: Shared Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.8 Path 8: Resource Recycling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.9 Path 9: Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage . . . . . . . . .

115 115 115 117 118 118 125 134 141 176 183 189 195 207

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4.2.10 Path 10: Ecological Carbon Sink . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216 5 Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive Industry in the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects of Passenger Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects of Commercial Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.3 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 Forecast of Vehicle Ownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2 Energy Demand Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.3 Forecast of Carbon Emission Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.4 Emission Reduction Effect Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.5 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 More Attention to Be Paid to Domestic Carbon Emission Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.1 Existing Carbon Emission Management Policies to Be Perfected . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.2 Speeding Up Construction of Carbon Emission Standard System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.3 Supply Chain Carbon Data Integrity to Be Improved . . . . . 6.1.4 Information Disclosure Mechanism in Further Progress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Challenges and Opportunities Coexisting in International Competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1 Tighter Carbon Footprint Limits for Automobile Products and Key Parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.2 Gradual Rise in Compliance Costs of Automobile Products and Parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.3 Necessary to Establish an Independent Carbon Footprint Disclosure Power of China’s Automobile Products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

223 223 224 233 259 262 262 264 267 277 284 287 287 288 291 293 294 295 296 298

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7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality . . . . . . . . 7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.1 Construction of Standard System for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2 Policy Support for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Speeding Up the Process of Decarbonization of the Power Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2 Steady and Sound Promotion of the Development of Vehicle Electrification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.3 Speeding Up the Construction of Resource Recycling System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4 Promotion of the Use of Hydrogen Fuel and Other Low-Carbon Alternative Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.5 Advocating New Modes of Low-Carbon Mobility for Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.6 Speeding Up the Research and Development of Negative Carbon Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Summary and Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

303 303 303 328 342 342 343 345 346 347 348 349 349

Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351

Chapter 1

Overview

1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry 1.1.1 Status-Quo and Trend of Global Climate Change According to the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC [1], the global temperature has increased significantly since industrialization. As shown in Fig. 1.1, the past decade, namely 2011–2020, is the hottest decade on record, with the global surface temperature increased by 1.09 °C (0.95–1.2 °C) compared with 1850–1900, and in 2020 which is one of the three hottest years on record [2], when the global average surface temperature increased by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C compared with that before industrialization (1980–1900). IPCC, by simulating the human and natural factors to the global temperature changes in the past, demonstrated that human activities play an absolutely dominant role in climate warming. As illustrated in Fig. 1.2 [3], from 1980 to 2019, CO2 emissions showed an overall rising trend only with slight drop in some years, and the average annual rise was high up to about 0.45Gt, especially in 2010 when the annual rise was the highest, i.e.1.89Gt. In 2020, CO2 emissions declined temporarily due to the impact of COVID-19, but in 2021, due to the economic recovery, changes in the energy market, adverse weather and other factors, CO2 emissions increased significantly by 6% from the 2020 level to about 2.04Gt, which marks the highest increase on record, and is even higher than the level in 2019 when the pandemic did not break out, completely offsetting the impact of emission reduction caused by the epidemic. Until now, 193 countries or regions have signed the Paris Agreement and submitted the first national determined contributions (NDCs), of which 13 signatories have submitted the second NDCs. But, there is still a big gap between the NDC targets and action plans proposed by various countries in pursuit of the Paris Agreement and © China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_1

1

2

1 Overview

Fig. 1.1 Global surface temperature and annual change

Fig. 1.2 Annual changes in carbon emissions from energy combustion and industrial processes from 1980 to 2021

the temperature control target of 2 °C, and by 2030, there will be an annual emission reduction gap of 12–15 billion tCO2 e [4]. Based on this, it can be calculated that, by the end of the twenty-first century, the global median temperature rise will reach 2.7 °C, the probability of global temperature rise lower than 2 °C is less than 5%, and the probability of global temperature rise higher than 3 °C is greater than 25% [5]. If GHG emissions continue to rise in the future, the climate warming trend will further intensify. Continuous global temperature rise will lead to more frequent occurrence of serious extreme climate events, including cold wave, heat wave, flood, drought, wildfire, storm, etc. Therefore, it is urgent for all countries to put forward

1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry

3

and implement emission reduction targets and further strengthen climate actions. The report of the Working Group III in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report shows that [6], the control of global temperature rise is critical in the next few years. As described by the assessment scenario proposed by the Working Group III, if the global warming is to be controlled within 2 °C of the level before industrialization, it is required to achieve zero net CO2 emission (that is, carbon neutrality) in the early 2070s, and if the global warming is to be controlled within 1.5 °C of the level before industrialization, it is required to achieve zero net CO2 emission in the early 2050s. Until now, about 131 countries including China, in order to control global climate change, have proposed carbon neutrality goals in different forms, which account for about 88% of global carbon emissions and about 90% of the total global economy [7].

1.1.2 Status-Quo of GHG Emissions from China’s Automotive Industry In 2020, the total carbon emissions produced in China reached about 10.2 billion tons, accounting for 29.7% of the global total carbon emissions [8]. Such a high carbon emission level exerted a high pressure on the realization of China’s “30/60” goals. The transport sector, due to such characteristics as high carbon emission, fast carbon emission growth and long industrial chain, has become an important part of China’s GHG emission reduction strategy. As the largest automobile manufacturing country in the world, China has stood at the first position in terms of vehicle production and sales for 13 consecutive years, and in 2021, the vehicle production and sales of China reached 26.082 million and 26.275 million respectively [9]. By the end of March 2022, the population of motor vehicles and vehicles in China reached 402 million and 307 million respectively [10]. With the increase of production, sales and population of vehicles, the carbon emission of the automotive industry is growing rapidly, and its contribution to the carbon emission of the transport sector is increasing day by day. As shown in Fig. 1.3, the carbon emissions from road transport in 2019 was about 800 million tons, accounting for about 8% of the total CO2 emissions in China, and more than 85% of the total CO2 emissions in transport sector [11]. The automotive industry has gradually become one of the important sources of carbon emissions in the transport sector and even in China, and if the carbon emissions generated by the upstream industrial chains of automotive industry are taken into account, the contribution of automotive industry to China’s total CO2 emissions is much higher. The rapid increase of energy demand and carbon emissions in the automotive industry has further aggravated the increasingly serious energy crisis and ecological environment crisis, and has brought great challenges to the sustainable development of China’s economy and society. From this point of view, effectively controlling the total carbon emissions of the automotive industry is of

4

1 Overview

Fig. 1.3 CO2 emissions of transport sector from 2010 to 2019

great significance to the green and low-carbon transformation of the transport sector, and thereafter to the achievement of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.

1.1.3 Impact of Climate Change on China’s Automotive Industry Structure In order to promote the low-carbon and high-quality development of the automotive industry, China is accelerating the research, development and application of new energy vehicles. Since 2009, the Central Government has provided vigorous support for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles by adopting preferential policies such as NEV purchase subsidies, and NEV purchase tax relief. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Finance (MF) and other ministries jointly issued the Measures for the Parallel Administration of the Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises, which establishes a dual-credit linkage management mechanism, confirms the management requirements for average fuel consumption of enterprises, and forms a long-term development mechanism for the NEV industry. On January 21, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other ministries jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting Green Consumption, which proposes a series of measures, including phasing out NEV purchase restrictions in various regions, promoting the implementation of support policies such as free traffic and right of way, and strengthening the construction of infrastructures such as charging/battery swapping facilities, new energy storage facilities and hydrogen charging facilities. The implementation of a series of favorable policies for new energy vehicles, such as NEV purchase subsidies, purchase tax

1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry

5

reduction and exemption, dual-credit policy and basic security, has accelerated the market development of China’s NEV industry. At the same time, the enterprises are accelerating the research and development of NEV technologies, taking electrification as one of the main strategies for future development, and accelerating the NEV product layout to continuously increase the NEV market share. Manufacturers of conventional fuel vehicles are also trying to develop HEV and BEV versions based on the original fuel version. For example, GWM adopted the GIFT (Green Intelligent Future Technology) strategy, and proposed to carry out saturated precision investment in the BEVs, FCEVs and HEVs, and it is expected that by 2025, GWM will launch more than 50 NEV models, which will account for 80% of the total vehicles models of GWM; GAC adopted the GLASS (Green, Low-carbon, Achieving, Sustainable and Success) Plan and proposed to increase the proportion of sales of self-developed NEVs to 50% in 2025 and 50% in 2030; BYD officially announced on April 3, 2022 to stop the production of fuel vehicles from March, and transfer its vehicle production focus to BEVs and HEVs in the future; and in addition, the newly emerging automakers including NIO, XPeng, Li Auto and NETA are also constantly promoting the development of new energy vehicles. Thanks to the strong support and guidance of subsidy policies and the positive response of enterprises, China’s NEV industry has embraced its rapid development, with the product quality, technology level and product practicality greatly improved. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the NEV market share has risen rapidly in recent years. In 2021, the NEV sales broke the history record and exceeded 3 million, with a YoY growth rate up to 157.5%. As shown in Fig. 1.4, from 2020 to February 2022, the monthly market penetration rate in most months increased by more than 100% compared to the same period of last year, and even reached 214% in September 2021; Throughout 2021, the NEV market penetration rated exceeded 10% and reached 13.4%. After all, it was below 10% in the previous years. From January to February 2022, we kicked off the first nice ball with market penetration rates up to 17.1% and 19.2% respectively. On the whole, the dominator of China’s automotive industry structure is gradually shifting from conventional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. As predicted by the Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0 [12], the NEV market penetration rate in China will further increase in the future and is expected to reach 20% by 2025 and 40% by 2030, and NEVs will become the mainstream of automotive industry by 2050.

1.1.4 Impact of Climate Change on the Import and Export of China’s Automotive Industry Carbon emission management policy will promote the development of vehicle electrification. With the introduction of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, countries

6

1 Overview

Fig. 1.4 Sales of NEVs in China from 2016 to 2021

around the world have tightened their carbon emission management in the automotive industry. In 2019, the EU adopted the latest carbon emission standard for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, which was formally implemented in 2020 [13], and specifies the carbon emission target of passenger vehicles in 2021 (95 g/km), the carbon emission target of light-duty commercial vehicles (147 g/km) in 2021, a penalty of 95 Euros for each new vehicle registered in that year for each 1 g/km of enterprise average CO2 emission above the target, and also specifies the target of CO2 emission reduction of passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles in 2025 and 2030 respectively (that is, 15% for both passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles in 2020, and 37.5% for passenger vehicles and 31% for lightduty commercial vehicles in 2030). On July 14, 2021, the EU released the revised draft of this standard [14], which proposes to further increase the carbon emission reduction targets for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles in 2030 and adds a target for 100% carbon emission reduction in 2035 to better achieve the climate goal. In December, 2021, the USA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the USA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) formulated new fuel economy and CO2 emission standards for passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks manufactured in and after 2023 [15], and further tightened the CO2 emission target requirements on the basis of the SAFE standard issued in 2020. The Singapore Land Transport Authority (LTA) has revised the Carbon Emissions-Based Vehicle Scheme (CEVS) for many times since its adoption in 2013, for example, in 2018, the CEVS was changed to Vehicle Emission Scheme (VES) to incorporate the pollutant emissions into the regulatory scope, according to which the vehicle will be rated according to the indicators with the worst carbon emission and pollutant emission

1.1 Impact of Global Climate Change on Automotive Industry

7

and then be granted with rebates or imposed with surcharges; from 2021–2022, the VES was further revised, which further increases the rewards and punishments, and specifies that vehicles of Level A1 and Level A2 will be rewarded, Level B is the dividing line of rewards and punishments, and vehicles of Level C will be punished. New Zealand, in order to effectively reduce the GHG emissions of vehicles and significantly improve their fuel efficiency, issued a series of laws and regulations on energy efficiency and CO2 emissions for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles on February 2022, including the Land Transportation Laws (on Clean Vehicles) (Amendment 2022), Land Transportation Laws (on Clean Vehicle Tax Deduction Scheme and Penalty) (2022) and Land Transport Rules - Vehicle Energy Efficiency and Emission Data (2022), etc. China, on the basis of traditional fuel consumption control, is accelerating the construction of carbon emission management system in the automotive industry, including carbon emission accounting standards, publicity system, etc. The carbon emission standards are becoming increasingly stringent, and traditional automobile enterprises are forced to seek effective emission reduction measures, among which, electrification has become one of the main paths. Passenger Vehicle China’s NEV Technology is Relatively Mature. China has started its development of NEVs very early, and thus boasts certain first-mover advantages and scale advantages. The NEV technologies and battery technologies have basically reached the international advanced level, and the range of NEVs has increased year by year.

Fig. 1.5 Research content and structure framework

8

1 Overview

Specifically, in 2020, the range of battery electric passenger vehicles increased by 34.9% from the 2018 level to 394 km, and the proportion of battery electric passenger vehicles with a range above 400 km has increased rapidly from 2.6% in 2018 to 58.7% in 2020 [16]. At the same time, the performance, safety and intelligent application of the new energy vehicles are improved; the supporting infrastructures such as charging piles and management specifications are gradually improved; diversified alternative fuel power systems are developed, and the deployment of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry chain are accelerated to continuously meet the travel needs of residents. The New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035) requires to continue to improve China’s NEV technology innovation capability and deepen the planned R&D layout in the future, that is, deploying NEV technology innovation chain vertically with BEV, PHEV (including range-extended HEV) and FCEV as focuses, and building a key component technology supply system horizontally with battery and BMS, drive motor and power electronics, and interconnection and intelligent technology as the focuses. China has strong market competitive advantages for new energy vehicles and wins increasing market recognition at home and abroad. Under such a favorable development trend, the export of China’s automobile products shows a rising trend, especially the new energy vehicles, which are not subject to the international trade barriers against China’s conventional fuel vehicles and become a new driving force for export growth. In 2021, the export of vehicles from China doubled compared with last year and reached 2,015,000, among which the export of new energy vehicles reached 310,000 with a YoY increase of 304.6%, including 300,000 passenger vehicles (with a YoY increase of 329.5%) and 1000 new energy commercial vehicles (with a YoY increase of 59.6%) [9]. Europe has become the main market contributing to the growth of China’s NEV export, especially the developed countries such as Belgium, Britain, Germany, France, Norway, Italy, Spain and Portugal. China’s independently developed new energy vehicles, including MG ZS and MG EHS of SAIC, Marvel R and MG5 of Risingauto, BYD Tang EV, ES6 and ES8 of NIO, XPeng G3 and XPeng P7, Dongfeng Dacia Spring Sep One and Dongfeng Dacia Spring Step Two, are beginning to show their competitiveness in the European market.

1.2 Consensus on Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive Industry and Countermeasures International automobile enterprises have put forward their own carbon neutrality goals by 2050 from the perspective of factory, product and enterprise. For example, Daimler proposed to build a new carbon–neutral fleet before 2039; Volkswagen proposed to achieve group-wise carbon neutrality by 2050; Volvo proposed to develop itself into a global zero climate load benchmarking enterprise before 2040; GWM planned to fully realize carbon neutrality in 2045; and GAC proposed to achieve life cycle carbon neutrality of products by 2050 (and if possible, by 2045). In order

1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain

9

to achieve the carbon neutrality goal, all automobile enterprises have put forward countermeasures for all links of the life cycle including raw material, supply chain, manufacturing, logistics, product and recovery, as shown in Table 1.1.

1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain The Proportion and Regional Deployment of Clean Electricity Need to be Improved Urgently. At present, China’s electric power structure is dominated by thermal power with a proportion higher than 60%, resulting in high carbon emissions in the process of power production. From the perspective of life cycle carbon emission, the emission reduction effect of new energy vehicles, when considered from the carbon emission in the process of battery production and power generation, is relatively limited. Only when the proportion of renewable energy in the energy structure and power grid increases can new energy vehicles play a greater role in carbon emission reduction. However, the current development of clean electricity in China limits the carbon emission reduction potential of new energy vehicles. In 2020, China’s green power generation accounted for only 27% of the total social power generation, and the supply of green power still cannot meet the demands of enterprises [17]. Moreover, more than 60% of China’s green power is concentrated in the western regions where the population and industries are sparsely distributed, such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu, Guizhou, etc. China’s green power trading market is still under demonstration, the trading market and technologies for enterprises to obtain green power are not yet mature enough, and the development of green power trading is yearning for the adoption of more perfect implementation rules and supporting policies. As a result, cross-region direct trading of green power is very difficult, and thus enterprises are more difficult to purchase and use green power. Besides, the supply of green power falls short of demand, so that enterprises are difficult to purchase the demanded green power, and unable to reduce carbon emissions in the production process by utilization of green power, thus increasing the carbon emission reduction stress on enterprises. The Carbon Emission and Cost of Alternative Fuel Production are High. Hydrogen energy, as a kind of secondary energy applicable for various decarbonization application scenario with such advantages as rich reserve, high calorific value, storability and wide sources, is expected to play a key role in promoting energy transformation and improving the flexibility of energy system. At present, the most common hydrogen production methods in China include: hydrogen production by reforming fossil energy based on coal and natural gas, and hydrogen production by industrial by-product gases represented by coke oven gas and chlor-alkali exhaust gas; the hydrogen production by water electrolysis, is still at the megawatt level and has not shown its economies of scale; and the hydrogen production from biomass is still in the stage of experiment and development, and has not yet reached the requirements of industrial scale application.

10

1 Overview

Table 1.1 Examples of life cycle carbon neutrality measures of vehicles Material

Supplier

Manufacturing

• Renewable materials; • Energy efficient materials; • Lightweight materials; • Parts/materials produced by renewable energy • Bio-based materials; • High-strength materials; • Reduction of demand for raw materials; • Increasing use of recycled materials for aluminum, cobalt and nickel

• Take the CO2 indicator as an important standard for selection of suppliers; • Use batteries produced from renewable energies; • Propose share requirements for recycled materials of aluminum, nickel and cobalt to battery suppliers • Select environment friendliness and recyclability of raw materials as the major basis for selection and procurement of raw materials; • Apply blockchain technology to achieve global traceability of battery raw materials; • Implement supplier sustainability training and self-evaluation • Promote and strengthen environmental risk audit; • Carry out mutual inspection of supplier environmental countermeasures to Tier2 suppliers;

• Use electricity • Optimize the generated by logistics renewable network: energies: shorten the outsourcing or driving production; mileage; • Optimize transfer road production transportation process or and air technology; transportation • Improve the to railway utilization rate transportation; of materials use and reduce the multi-purpose use of trucks, increase materials and truck loading parts capacity, • Collect waste reduce times of heat transportation, • Carbon offset: and select local purchase suppliers as carbon credits much as to offset possible emissions • Reduce generated in packaging the materials: use manufacturing lightweight process packaging • Control materials emissions from which is 100% processes and degradable; promote recycle recycling; packaging • Promote the materials; operation implement environment container management sharing and system; leasing plan; • Establish a • Apply new special energy energy vehicles conservation for improvement transportation: team; realize electrification of transportation vehicles

Logistics

Product

Recovery

• Create a new energy power system which covers BEV technology, HEV technology, alternative fuels, fuel cells and other technical paths • Improve traditional fuel efficiency; • Promote the production of new energy vehicles; • Improve the energy density of the battery

Improve the transparency of secondary raw materials used in products; • Develop new recycling technologies for high-voltage batteries: promote the recycling of nickel, cobalt, lithium and other materials; • Adopt easydisassembly design • Build a scrapping network for end-of-life vehicles • Build a battery ecosystem

1.3 Key Issues in China’s Automotive Industry Chain

11

The production and transportation of hydrogen energy are expected to consume certain resources and energies, and its direct and indirect GHG emissions are highly correlated with the hydrogen production and transportation modes selected. According to CATARC-ADC’s calculation based on the current situation that the chemical industry is dominated by coal and the hydrogen transportation is dominated by tube trailer, the production, storage and transportation of each kilogram of hydrogen will emit about 26.8 kg of greenhouse gas. It is predicted by China Hydrogen Alliance that, by 2050, the hydrogen produced from fossil energy, the hydrogen produced by biomass and the renewable energy will take a share of 20%, 10% and 70% respectively, and hydrogen will be mainly transported by high-pressure hydrogen tanks and pipelines. Therefore, it can be found that the low-carbon development of hydrogen energy depends on the choice of hydrogen production mode and transportation mode, that is to say, we should take technical paths such as increasing the proportion of hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy, developing gaseous hydrogen pipeline transportation, and optimizing the hydrogen transportation distance, which, however, entail a large amount of manpower and material resources. According to the calculation in the Annual Report on the Development of Automotive Hydrogen Industry in China (2021) [18], the cost of hydrogen production from coal is about 6.77–12.14 yuan/kg, the cost of hydrogen production by water electrolysis from commercial electricity is higher than 40 yuan/kg, and the cost of hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy, thanks to our sufficient natural resources, is about 20 yuan/kg, and the hydrogen production from industrial by-products, though low in cost, is hard to be developed in scale and thus cannot become a stable large-scale hydrogen supply source in the future. Therefore, balancing the cost of water electrolysis from renewable energy reasonably and improving the maturity of hydrogen production and transportation technology are the keys for the hydrogen to realize its low-carbon merits. The Carbon Emission Management Capacity of Automobile Enterprises Needs to be Strengthened. Developed countries such as European countries and the United States have started their carbon emission management earlier and have established a sound carbon emission standard system, such as EU’s CO2 emission standards for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, and the United States’ GHG and CAFE standards. However, China only has established a standard system with fuel consumption and pollutants as the regulatory objects, and lacks a unified carbon emission standard system to effectively guide the carbon emission management of the automotive industry. Domestic enterprises have also started their carbon emission management very late, and have not accumulated enough experience in this aspect. Therefore, their products face great policy compliance risks and market risks. Under the dual influence of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategy and the international situation, it is particularly important for China to strengthen the carbon emission accounting and management ability of automobile enterprises to improve their products’ low-carbon competitiveness and develop low-carbon automobile products.

12

1 Overview

The Battery Recycling Supervision and Management Mechanism Needs to be Improved. The draft of the Regulation concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries issued by the EU puts forward mandatory requirements on the recycling proportion of batteries and their key raw materials and the application amount of recycled materials, and specifies that batteries not meeting the minimum requirements in this Regulation are not allowed to be sold and used in the EU market, which will pose a great challenge to the export of China’s automotive products and battery products. In addition, with the development of new energy vehicles, the competition for key raw materials such as nickel, cobalt and lithium intensifies. China is seriously short of lithium, cobalt and nickel resources and depends highly on imports for those resources, which, together with the external uncertainties, exacerbates the supply risk of lithium, cobalt and nickel resources in China and limits China’s NEV development. Therefore, establishing a sound battery recycling management system will effectively promote the recycling of key raw materials and parts, and play an important role in energy conservation and emission reduction, easing resource tension, and coping with international trade barriers. At present, China has not adopted sufficient mandatory requirements for regulating the battery recycling management system, and the certification mechanism for the application amount of recycled materials and the carbon emission reduction accounting mechanism for the recycling of waste batteries have not been established. Therefore, it is urgent to speed up the formulation of policies and supporting measures.

1.4 Research Framework and Overall Idea of this Book This book, by deeply combination of China’s automotive industry development trend with the characteristics of automotive products, puts forward the accounting method of life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles, and discloses the carbon emission data of automotive products, enterprises and industries, and based on these data, proposes ten transformation paths for the automotive industry to be carbon neutral, including but not limited to: power grid decarbonization; vehicle electrification; fuel decarbonization, low-carbon material; production digitalization (energy efficiency improvement); transportation intelligence; shared mobility; resource recycling; carbon capture, utilization and storage; and product ecologicalization, and then based on the effects of the ten paths under different scenarios, makes a quantitative analysis on the carbon emission reduction potential of future automotive products and the automotive industry, and provides suggestions on the carbon neutrality development strategies and policies for the automotive industry. The research content and structure framework of this Book are shown in Fig. 1.5.

References

13

References 1. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) (2021). IPCC_AR6_WGI: climate change 2021. Phys Sci Basis [R] 2. World meteorological organization (WMO) (2020). State of the global climate 2020 [R] 3. IEA (2021). Global energy review: CO2 emissions in 2021, 1900–2021 [R] 4. United nations environment program (2019). Emissions gap report 2019 [R] 5. Institute of climate change and sustainable development, Tsinghua University (2021). Comprehensive report on China’s long-term low-carbon development strategies and pathways [R]. Beijing, China Environment Publishing Group 6. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) (2022) IPCC_AR6_WGIII: climate change 2022 mitigation of climate change [R] 7. Energy and climate intelligence unit. Net zero tracker. https://zerotracker.net/ 8. BP China (2021) BP statistical review of world energy [R] 9. China association of automobile manufacturers (CAAM) (2022) PPTs for understanding the production and sales data. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/t6sSfdyHqWbiuGaSqFTB2A 10. Traffic Administration Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security of the People’s Republic of China (2022) The population of motor vehicles in China exceeded 400 million, and 1.11 million new energy vehicles were newly registered in the first quarter with a YoY increase of 138.20%, China. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XJcAEIgb-LhtHpgiGor10g. 11. World Resources Institute (2017) Transport emissions and social cost assessment: methodology guide [R] 12. China society of automotive engineers (2021) Technology roadmap for energy saving and new energy vehicles 2.0 [M]. Beijing, China Machine Press 13. European Union (2019) Regulation (EU) 2019(631) setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger vehicles and for new light commercial vehicles. Official J Eur Union 14. European Union (2021) Amending regulation (EU) 2019/631 as regards strengthening the CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger vehicles and new light commercial vehicles in line with the Union’s increased climate ambition [S] 15. Environmental protection agency (2021) Revised 2023 and later model year light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas emissions standards [S] 16. Zhenpo W, Zhaowen L et al (2021) Annual report on the big data of new energy vehicle in China [M]. China Machine Press, Beijing 17. Department of Energy Statistics (2019) National Bureau of statistics. China Energy Statistics Yearbook 2019. Beijing, China Statistics Press 18. China automotive technology & research center, BAIC Foton Motor Co., Ltd. Annual report on the development of automotive hydrogen industry in China (2021) [M]. Beijing, Social Science Literature Press

Chapter 2

Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model for Vehicles 2.1.1 Determination of Purpose and Scope 2.1.1.1

Functional Unit

This study is intended to account for the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles produced in China. The research objects include passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle (including buses, light-duty trucks and heavy-duty trucks), both of which can be divided according to the fuel type into gasoline or diesel vehicle, non off-vehicle chargeable hybrid electric vehicle (NOVC HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (NEV), natural gas vehicle (NGV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). The specific accounting models and their corresponding abbreviations are listed in Table 2.1. For the purpose this study, the functional unit of passenger vehicles is taken as the transport service provided by a single passenger vehicle traveling 1 km in its life cycle, with the life cycle mileage calculated as (1.5 × 105 ) km; the functional unit of trucks is taken as the transport service provided by a single truck carrying 1t load for 1 km in its life cycle, with the life cycle mileage of light-duty trucks calculated as (6 × 105 ) km, and the life cycle mileage of heavy-duty trucks calculated as (7 × 105 ) km; the functional unit of buses is taken as the transport service provided by a single bus carrying 1 person for 1 km in the life cycle, with the life cycle mileage calculated as (4 × 105 ) km. According to the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, the accounting objects of carbon emissions include emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride. © China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_2

15

Plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV)

Plug-in hybrid electric bus

NOVC hybrid electric bus

Diesel coach

Battery electric light-duty truck

NOVC hybrid electric light-duty truck

Diesel light-duty truck

Natural gas bus Natural gas coach

Dump truck

Tractor

NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty single vehicle

Natural gas heavy-duty dump truck

Battery electric heavy-duty dump truck

NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty dump truck

(continued)

Natural gas heavy-duty tractor

Battery electric heavy-duty tractor

NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty tractor

Diesel heavy-duty Diesel heavy-duty Diesel heavy-duty single-unit truck dump truck tractor

Single-unit truck

Heavy-duty truck

Commercial vehicles

Natural gas heavy-duty single-unit truck

NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle

Non off-vehicle-chargeable hybrid electric vehicle (NOVC HEV)

Diesel bus

Gasoline light-duty truck

Light-duty truck

Natural gas vehicle

Diesel passenger vehicle

Diesel-only vehicle (diesel vehicle)

Gasoline bus

Coach

Battery electric heavy-duty single-unit truck

Gasoline passenger vehicle

Gasoline-only vehicle (gasoline vehicle)

Buses

Battery electric vehicle Battery electric Battery electric Battery passenger bus electric coach vehicle

Passenger vehicle

Type

Table 2.1 Models under accounting and their corresponding abbreviations

16 2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

Fuel cell electric passenger vehicle

Fuel cell electric vehicle

Fuel cell electric bus

Buses Fuel cell electric coach

Coach Fuel cell electric light-duty truck

Light-duty truck Single-unit truck Fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump truck

Dump truck

Commercial vehicles Heavy-duty truck

Note The models in grey cells represent models not included in the carbon emission accounting of this report

Passenger vehicle

Type

Table 2.1 (continued)

Fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractor

Tractor

2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model for Vehicles 17

18

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

Fig. 2.1 Boundary of life cycle carbon emission accounting system of vehicles

2.1.1.2

System Boundary

The system boundary for vehicle life cycle assessment in this study covers the whole life cycle of vehicle, including vehicle cycle and fuel cycle. The vehicle cycle consists of material production, vehicle production, maintenance (including tyre replacement, lead-acid battery replacement, fluid replacement, and refrigerant escape) and other stages, among which the material production stage includes raw material acquisition and processing process, and recycled material production and processing process; The fuel cycle, namely “well to wheels (WTW)”, includes fuel production and transportation (Well to Pump) stage and fuel use (Pump to Wheels) stage. For fuel vehicles and natural gas vehicles, WTP includes exploitation, refining, processing and transportation of crude oil; for electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, WTP includes the production and transmission of electric power (including thermal power, hydropower, wind power, PV power, nuclear power, etc.) and fuel cell system. The transportation of raw materials and parts, the processing and manufacturing of parts, the manufacturing of production equipment, and the construction of workshops and other infrastructures are not included in the boundary. The system boundary for life cycle carbon emission accounting of vehicles is shown in Fig. 2.1.

2.1.2 Vehicle Inventory Data 2.1.2.1

Vehicle Cycle Inventory Data

This book, taking the automotive materials as the accounting object, divides the vehicle into six parts namely part, tyre, lead-acid battery, lithium-ion battery, fuel

2.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Model for Vehicles

19

cell system and fluid, and considering the carbon emission and weight of materials in each part and the verifiability of data, accounts for 27 materials in total, as shown in Table 2.2. The weight proportion of part, tyre, lead-acid battery, lithium-ion battery, fuel cell system and fluid involved in the vehicle cycle, the proportion of their materials, the material carbon emission factor, the vehicle production carbon emission factor and other data are sourced from CALCM-2021. The data for the weight proportion of part, tyre, lead-acid battery, lithium-ion battery, fuel cell system and fluid and the proportion of their materials are derived from the weighted average output of more than 90 mainstream models classified by CATARC-ADC. Table 2.2 List of materials within the accounting scope

No

Material category

1

Steel

2

Cast iron

3

Aluminum and aluminum alloys

4

Magnesium and magnesium alloys

5

Copper and copper alloys

6

Thermoplastics

7

Thermosetting plastics

8

Rubber

9

Fabric

10

Ceramic/glass

11

Lead

12

Sulphuric acid

13

Glass fibre

14

Lithium iron phosphate

15

Lithium nickel cobalt manganate

16

Lithium manganate

17

Graphite

18

Electrolyte: Lithium hexafluorophosphate

19

Lubricant

20

Brake fluid

21

Coolant

22

Refrigerant

23

Washer fluid

24

Silica gel

25

Carbon fibre

26

Resin

27

Platinum

20

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

In addition, the vehicle cycle accounting in this study covers the carbon emissions from tyre replacement, lead-acid battery replacement, fluid replacement and refrigerant escape during the driving process, as well as the carbon emissions from the vehicle production processes such as stamping, welding, coating, final assembly and power station. The times of tyre replacement, lead-acid battery replacement, fluid replacement and refrigerant escape are shown in Table 2.1. As shown in Table 2.2, the data of carbon emission from automotive materials, energy, fuel and vehicle production in this study are sourced from the China Automotive Life Cycle Database (CALCD), which represents the average level of China. CALCD is the first localized automotive life cycle database in China that covers more than 20,000 life cycle inventory process data related to automobile products in the whole industry chain in such respects as resource consumption, energy consumption, pollutant emissions, greenhouse gas emissions and economic cost, including data of basic materials, energy, and basic processes such as transportation and processing, as well as process data and core models for production and recycling of key parts and batteries, and manufacturing, transportation, operation, scrapping and recycling of vehicles, etc.

2.1.2.2

Fuel Cycle Inventory Data

The data of fuel consumption (except energy consumption) and energy consumption of passenger vehicles used in this study are based on the test data of WLTC and CLTC respectively. The data of carbon emission factor of fuel production are sourced from the China Automotive Life Cycle Database (CALCD), which represents the average level of China, as shown in Appendix Table 3. The electricity carbon emission factor is calculated according to the national average level based on China’s energy structure in 2017 (coal-fired power 64.7%, hydropower 18.6%, renewable energy power 6.5%, nuclear power 3.9%, natural gas power 3.2% and oil power 3.1%). The carbon emission from fuel use is calculated by using the CO2 conversion factor in GB 27,999–2019 (i.e. 2.37kgCO2 e/L for gasoline, and 2.60kgCO2 e/L for diesel); the carbon emission during power use is calculated as 0.

2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle 2.2.1 Vehicle Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Methods The vehicle cycle carbon emission is calculated according to Formula (2.1), with the carbon emission in the parts processing stage and the transport stage not considered. C V ehicle = C Material + CPr oduction + CRe placement

(2.1)

2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle

21

where, C Vehicle— vehicle cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e; C Material— carbon emissions in the material production stage, kgCO2 e; CProduction— carbon emissions in the vehicle production stage, kgCO2 e; C Replacement— carbon emissions during maintenance (tyre replacement, lead-acid battery replacement, fluid replacement and refrigerant escape), kgCO2 e.

2.2.1.1

Material Production Stage

The carbon emissions in the material production stage shall be calculated according to Formula (2.2), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Materials = C Par ts + C Lead +C Fuel

Cell System

acid batter y

+ C Li−ion

batter y

(2.2)

+ C T yr es + C Fluids

C Material —carbon emissions in the material production stage, kgCO2 e C Parts —carbon emissions of parts, kgCO2 e; C Lead acid battery —carbon emissions of lead-acid batteries, kgCO2 e; C Li-Ion battery —carbon emissions of lithium-ion batteries, kgCO2e; C Fuel Cell System —carbon emissions of fuel cell systems, kgCO2 e; C Tyres —carbon emissions of tyres, kgCO2 e; C Fluids —carbon emissions of fluids, kgCO2 e. The carbon emissions of auto parts (excluding tyres, batteries, fuel cell systems and fluids) shall be calculated according to Formula (2.3) or Formula (2.4), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Par t = M Par t material i + Umaterial i + C E FPar t material i C Par ts =

 (M Par t

+M Par t

pr−material i

× U Par t

material i

× U Par t

material i

× C E FPar t

r e−material i

× C E FPar t

pr −material i

r e−material i

)

(2.3)

(2.4)

where, C Parts —carbon emissions of parts, kgCO2 e/kg; MPart material i —weight of part material i, kg; Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss not considered. CEF Part material i —carbon emission factor of part material i, kgCO2 e/kg; M Part pr-material i —mass of part primary material i, kg; M Part re-material i —mass of part recycled material i, kg; CEF Part pr-material i —carbon emission factor of part primary material i, kgCO2 e/kg;

22

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

CEF Part re-material i —carbon emission factor of part recycled material i, kgCO2 e/kg. The carbon emission of lead-acid battery can be calculated according to Formula (2.5) or Formula (2.6), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Lead C

acid batter y

Lead acid batter y

+M

= =

 (M Lead

 (M

acid material i

× U Material i × C E FLead

acid material i

)

(2.5) Lead acid pr −material i

Lead acid r e−material i

×U

×U

Material i

Material i

× CEF

× CEF

Lead acid pr −material i

Lead acid r e−material i

)

(2.6)

where, C Lead acid battery —carbon emissions of lead-acid batteries, kgCO2 e; M Lead acid battery material i —mass of lead-acid battery material i, kg; Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss not considered. CEF Lead acid battery material i —carbon emission factor of lead-acid battery material i, kgCO2 e/kg; M Lead acid pr-material i mass of lead-acid battery primary material i, kg; M Lead acid re-material i —mass of lead-acid battery recycled material i, kg; CEF Lead acid pr-material i —carbon emission factor of lead-acid battery primary material i, kgCO2 e/kg; CEF Lead acid re-material i —carbon emission factor of lead-acid battery recycled material i, kgCO2 e/kg. The carbon emission of lithium-ion battery of BEVs, PHEVs, NOVC HEVs and FCEVs can be calculated separately (for gasoline vehicles or diesel vehicles, the mass of battery is calculated as 0) according to Formulas (2.7), (2.8) or (2.9), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Li−I on

batter y

=



(M Li−I on

material i

× U Material i × C E FLi−I on

material i

)

(2.7) C Li−I on

batter y

=

 (M Li−I on

+M Li−I on

pr −material i

r e−material i

× U Material i × C E FLi−I on

× U Material i × C E FLi−I on

pr −material i

r e−material i

) (2.8)

C Li−I on batter y = R

Li−I on

batter y × C E F Li−I on batter y

where, C Li-Ion battery —carbon emissions of lithium-ion batteries, kgCO2e; M Li-Ion battery material i —mass of lithium-ion battery material i, kg;

(2.9)

2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle

23

Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss not considered. CEF Li-Ion battery material i —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery material i, kgCO2 e/kg; M Li-Ion pr-material i —mass of lithium-ion battery primary material i, kg; CEF Li-Ion pr-material i —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery primary material i, kgCO2 e/kg; M Li-Ion re-material i —mass of lithium-ion battery recycled material i, kg; CEF Li-Ion re-material i —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery recycled material i, kgCO2 e/kg; E Li-Ion battery —energy of lithium-ion battery, kWh; CEF Li-Ion battery —carbon emission factor of lithium-ion battery, kgCO2 e/kWh. The carbon emission of fuel cell system of FCEVs can be calculated separately according to Formulas (2.10) and (2.11), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: CFuel Cell C

System

Fuel Cell System

+M

=

=



 (M

(MFuel Cell

System i

× U Material i × C E FFuel Cell

System i

)

(2.10) Fuel Cell pr − material i

Fuel Cell r e−material i

×U

×U

Material i

Material i

× CEF

× CEF

Fuel Cell pr −material i

Fuel Cell r e−material i

)

(2.11)

where, C Fuel Cell System —carbon emissions of fuel cell systems, kgCO2 e; M Fuel Cell System i —mass of fuel cell system material i, kg; Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss not considered. CEF Fuel Cell System i —carbon emission factor of fuel cell system material i, kgCO2 e/kg; M Fuel Cell pr-material i —mass of fuel cell system primary material i, kg; CEF Fuel Cell pr-material i —carbon emission factor of fuel cell system primary material i, kgCO2 e/kg; M Fuel Cell re-material i —mass of fuel cell system recycled material i, kg; CEF Fuel Cell re-material i —carbon emission factor of fuel cell system recycled material i, kgCO2 e/kg. The carbon emissions of tyres can be calculated separately according to Formulas (2.12) or (2.13), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C T yr es =



(MT yr e

material i

× U Material i × C E FT yr e

material i

)

(2.12)

24

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

C T yr es =



(MT yr e

+MT yr e

pr −material i

r e−material i

× U Material i × C E FT yr e

× U Material i × C E FT yr e

pr −material i

r e−material

) i

(2.13)

where, C Tyres —carbon emissions in the tyre production stage, kgCO2 e; M Tyre pr-material i —mass of tyre primary material i (one spare tyre in five tyres), kg; Umaterial i —use coefficient of material i, expressed as the percentage of material used in the manufacturing process in the vehicle, which is taken as 100% with loss not considered. cef tyre material i —carbon emission factor of tyre material i, kgCO2 e; M Tyre pr-material i —mass of tyre primary material i (one spare tyre in five tyres), kg; M Tyre re- material i —mass of the tyre recycled material i (one spare tyre in five tyres), kg; CEF Tyre pr-material i —carbon emission factor of tyre primary material i, kgCO2 e/kg; CEF Tyre re-material i —carbon emission factor of tyre recycled material i, kgCO2 e/kg; The carbon emissions of fluids can be calculated separately according to Formula (2.14), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: CFluids =



(MFluid material i × C E FFluid material i )

(2.14)

where, C Fluids —carbon emissions of fluids, kgCO2 e; M Fluids material i —mass of fluid material i, kg; CEF Fluid material i —carbon emission factor of fluid material i, kgCO2 e/kg.

2.2.1.2

Part Production Stage

The carbon emissions in the part production stage shall be calculated according to Formula (2.15), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Part production =



  E r × C E Fr + E r × N C Vr × C E Fr + MC O2

(2.15)

where, C Part Production —carbon emissions in the part production stage, kgCO2 e; E r —purchased quantity of energy or fuel r, kWh, m3 or kg, etc.; CEF r —carbon emission factor of production of energy or fuel r, kgCO2 e/kWh, kgCO2 e/m3 or kgCO2 e/kg; CEF’r —carbon emission factor of use of energy or fuel r, tCO2 e/GJ (for power production, CEF’ is calculated as 0); NCVr —average low calorific value of energy or fuel r, GJ/t, GJ/104 m3 ; M CO2 —mass of CO2 emitted during welding, kgCO2 e.

2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle

2.2.1.3

25

Vehicle Production Stage

The carbon emissions in the vehicle production stage shall be calculated according to Formula (2.16), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Production =



  E r × C E Fr + E r × N C Vr × C E Fr + MC O2

(2.16)

where, CProduction —carbon emissions in the vehicle production stage, kgCO2 e; E r —purchased quantity of energy or fuel r, kWh, m3 or kg, etc.; CEF r —carbon emission factor of production of energy or fuel r, kgCO2 e/kWh, kgCO2 e/m3 or kgCO2 e/kg; CEF’r —carbon emission factor of use of energy or fuel r, tCO2 e/GJ; NCVr —average low calorific value of energy or fuel r, GJ/t, GJ/104 Nm3 ; which has been adjusted according to China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2019). M CO —mass of CO2 emitted during welding, kgCO2 e.

2.2.1.4

Maintenance Stage

The carbon emissions in the maintenance stage (tyre replacement, lead-acid battery replacement, fluid replacement and refrigerant escape) shall be calculated according to Formula (2.17): CRe placement = C T yr e r + C Lead

acid batter y r

+ C Fluids

r

(2.17)

The carbon emissions due to tyre replacement (twice, 4 tyres for each time) shall be calculated according to Formula (2.18), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C T yr es

r

= C T yr es ×

4 ×2 5

(2.18)

where, C Tyres r —carbon emissions from tyre replacement (4 tyres) in the use stage, kgCO2 e; C Tyres —carbon emissions from tyre production, kgCO2 e; The carbon emissions due to lead-acid battery replacement shall be calculated according to Formula (2.19), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Lead

acid batter y r

= C Lead

acid batter y

× N Lead

acid batter y

(2.19)

26

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

where, C Lead acid battery r —carbon emissions from lead-acid battery replacement in the use stage, kgCO2 e; C Lead acid battery —carbon emissions from lead-acid battery production, kgCO2 e; N Lead acid battery” —number of lead-acid battery replacements in the life cycle. The carbon emissions due to fluid replacement and refrigerant escape (once) shall be calculated according to Formula (2.20), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Fluids r =

 (M Fluid material i × C E FFluid material i × R Fluid material i ) (2.20) +MRe f rigerant × GW PRe f rigerant

where, C Fluids r —carbon emissions from fluid replacement and refrigerant escape (once) in the use stage, kgCO2 e; M Fluids material i —mass of fluid material i, kg; MRefrigerant —mass of refrigerant, kg; CEF Fluid material i —carbon emission factor of fluid material i, kgCO2 e/kg; RFluid material i —number of replacements of fluid material i in the life cycle; GWPRefrigerant —global warming potential of refrigerant.

2.2.1.5

Transport Stage

The carbon emissions in the transport stage shall be calculated according to Formula (2.21), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: Ctransport =



Ctransport, p =

  p

k

(M p × dp × C E Ftransport, k )

(2.21)

where, C transport —carbon emissions in the transport stage, kgCO2 e; M p —mass of materials/semi-finished products/parts, etc. transported during the transport process p, kg. d p —transportation distance of transport process p, km; CEF transport,k —the carbon emission factor of the kth transportation mode, that is, the carbon emission generated by the transportation vehicle carrying 1t load for 1 km, including the carbon emission from the upstream fuel production and the use of fuel during transportation, kgCO2 e/tkm.

2.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Single Vehicle

27

2.2.2 Fuel Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method The fuel cycle carbon emissions shall be calculated according to Formula (2.22). C Fuel = C Fuel production + C Fuel use

(2.22)

where, C Fuel —fuel cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e; C Fuel production —carbon emissions in the fuel production stage, kgCO2 e; C Fuel use —carbon emissions in the fuel use stage, kgCO2 e;

2.2.2.1

Fuel Production Stage

The carbon emissions from fuel production of gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, NOVC HEVs, BEVs and FCEVs shall be calculated according to Formula (2.23), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Fuel production = FC × C E FFuel × L/100

(2.23)

where, C Fuel production — carbon emissions in the fuel production stage, kgCO2 e; FC—fuel consumption, l/100 km or kWh/100 km (the value of fuel consumption is to be taken as follows: fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,233 for gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline light-duty trucks and diesel light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 27,840 for diesel buses and diesel heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T29125 for natural gas buses and natural gas heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T19753 for NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,754 for NOVC hybrid electric buses and NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty trucks; energy consumption measured as per GB/T18386 for BEVs; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T35178 for fuel cell electric buses, fuel cell electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric heavy-duty trucks); CEF Fuel —carbon emission factor of fuel production, kgCO2 e/L or kgCO2 e/kWh; L—life cycle mileage. The carbon emissions in the fuel production stage of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles shall be calculated according to Formula (2.24), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:

28

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

 C Fuel

pr oduction

= FC State B × L/100 × 1 −

c 

 U Fc × C E FGasoline

i=1

+EC State A × L/100 ×

c 

(2.24)

U Fc × C E FElectricit y

i=1

where, C Fuel production —carbon emissions in the fuel production stage, kgCO2 e; FC State B —fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles in state B, L/100 km, which is to be measured according to GB/T 19,753; L—life cycle mileage of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, calculated as (1.5× 105 ) km. c i=1 U Fc - cumulative electricity utilization factor to test cycle c, which is to be calculated according to GB/T19753; CEF Gasoline —carbon emission factor of gasoline production, kgCO2 e/L; EC State A —energy consumption of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles in state A, kWh/100 km, which is to be measured according to GB/T19753; CEF Electricity —carbon emission factor of power production, kgCO2 e/kWh.

2.2.2.2

Fuel Use Stage

The carbon emissions in the fuel use stage of gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, conventional HEVs, BEVs and FCEVs shall be calculated according to Formula (2.25), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C Fuel use = FC × K C O2 × L/100

(2.25)

where, C Fuel use —carbon emissions in the fuel use stage, kgCO2 e; FC—fuel consumption, l/100 km or kWh/100 km (the value of fuel consumption is to be taken as follows: fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,233 for gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline light-duty trucks and diesel light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 27,840 for diesel buses and diesel heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T29125 for natural gas buses and natural gas heavy-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T19753 for NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T 19,754 for NOVC hybrid electric buses and NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty trucks; energy consumption measured as per GB/T18386 for BEVs; fuel consumption measured as per GB/T35178 for fuel cell electric buses, fuel cell electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric heavy-duty trucks);

2.3 Accounting Method for Enterprise Average Life Cycle Carbon Emissions

29

K CO2 —conversion factor in accordance with GB 27,999–2019, which is 2.37 kg/L for gasoline vehicles, 2.60 kg/L for diesel vehicles, and 0 for battery electric passenger vehicles; L—life cycle mileage of passenger vehicles, calculated as (1.5 × 105 ) km. The carbon emissions in the fuel use stage of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles shall be calculated according to Formula (2.26), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places:  C Fuel use = FC State B × L/100 × 1 −

c 

 U Fc × K C O2

(2.26)

i=1

where, C Fuel use —carbon emissions in the fuel use stage, kgCO2 e; FC State B —fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles in state B, L/100 km, which is to be measured according to GB/T 19,753; L—life cycle mileage of passenger vehicles, calculated as (1.5 × 105 ) km. c  U Fc —cumulative electricity utilization factor to test cycle c, which is to be i=1

calculated according to GB/T19753; KCO2 —conversion factor, which is 2.37 kg/L for gasoline vehicles.

2.2.3 Life Cycle Carbon Emissions Per Unit Mileage The life cycle carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles shall be calculated according to Formula (2.27), with the calculation result rounded to two decimal places: C = (C V ehicle + C Fuel )/L × 1000

(2.27)

where, C—life cycle carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles, gCO2 e/km; C Vehicle —fuel cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e; C Fuel —fuel cycle carbon emissions, kgCO2 e; L—life cycle mileage of vehicle, km.

2.3 Accounting Method for Enterprise Average Life Cycle Carbon Emissions The sales weighted average method is adopted for accounting of enterprise carbon emissions, as shown in Formula (2.28), which can be interpreted as follows: the

30

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

annual average carbon emission of an enterprise is calculated by dividing the sum of the product of the carbon emission of each model of the enterprise with the production and sales of the model by the annual production of passenger vehicles of the enterprise:  C Enter prise =

Ci × Vi  Vi

(2.28)

where, centerprise —average carbon emissions of an enterprise, gCO2 e/km; i—serial number of a passenger vehicle model; C i— carbon emission of the model i, gCO2 e/km; V i —annual sales of model i.

2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method The carbon emission reduction of automotive industry is very important for China to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, as the automotive industry is the main contributor to road transport carbon emissions. According to statistics, in 2020, China’s carbon emissions in the transport sector accounted for about 9% of the total carbon emissions in China, of which carbon emissions from road transport accounted for 87% [1]. Compared with developed countries such as European countries and the United States, China’s carbon emissions in the transportation sector takes a lower proportion [2], and is the third largest carbon emission source in China. However, now that the vehicle population per thousand people in China is relatively low [3] and is likely to grow in the future, the carbon emissions in transport sector will continue to increase with the increasing of vehicle population if no effective measures are taken. Development of NEVs is the general trend of the automotive industry to address climate challenges. NEVs, especially BEVs, will not directly produce CO2 emissions in the use stage [4], and thus can help effectively reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector. However, some studies have shown that, although NEVs can reduce the direct carbon emissions caused by vehicle driving, some carbon emissions are transferred from the combustion process of fuel to the upstream fuel production stage and the upstream vehicle supply chain [5]. In order to better analyze the NEV’s emission reduction effect and promote the low-carbon design of automotive products, the life cycle assessment method provides a systematic and comprehensive carbon emission accounting method [6], which has been applied in many studies to analyze the carbon footprint of automotive products powered by different fuels [7]. However, this method is not capable of carbon emission assessment of the automotive industry at the macro level. Therefore, the fleet modeling method is generally adopted. A fleet refers to the assembly of all vehicles which has dynamic characteristics. Based on the newly sold vehicles that are included into the fleet and the vehicles decommissioned from the fleet every year, the structure

2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method

31

of the fleet will change every year[8]. Generally, two fleet modeling methods are available, namely top-down modeling method and bottom-up method, between which the top-down modeling method focuses on the relationship between the automotive industry and other sectors, and the bottom-up modeling method can better reflect the technological progress of the automotive industry [9]. In the early stage when vehicles in China are mainly powered by traditional fuels, the research on the assessment of carbon emissions in the automotive industry using the bottom-up fleet model mainly focused on the use stage of vehicles, that is, the carbon emissions directly generated by fossil fuel combustion [10]. But in foreign countries, the researches on fleet models have included the carbon emissions in the vehicle manufacturing stage, that is, the life cycle assessment method is applied to the whole fleet [11]. This study, from the perspective of life cycle, builds the China automobile life cycle assessment model for fleet (CALCM-Fleet) by using the bottom-up modeling method. CALCM-Fleet consists of two parts, namely passenger vehicle fleet and commercial vehicle fleet. For the passenger vehicle fleet, four vehicle types including sedans, SUVs, MPVs and crossover passenger vehicles, and six fuel types including gasoline, diesel, hybrid power, plug-in hybrid power, battery and fuel cell are covered; and for the commercial vehicle fleet, five vehicle types including straight trucks, dump trucks, tractors, buses and coaches, and six fuel types including diesel, gasoline, natural gas, hybrid power, battery and fuel cell are considered.

2.4.1 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Fleet The annual total carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleet is calculated as follows: C p f,y = C p f, f,y + C p f,v,y where, C p f is the annual total life cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), C p f, f is the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), and C p f,v is the total vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript y represents the year. For the total fuel cycle carbon emissions C p f, f , we have C p f, f =

 s

pw

Stock p,y,s, pw,a × C ps, f,y,s, pw,a

a

where, Stock p is the annual population of passenger vehicles (units), and C ps, f is the total carbon emissions generated by a single passenger vehicle during the driving stage in a year (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript s represents the vehicle type, the subscript pw represents the fuel type, and the subscript a represents the vehicle age.

32

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

For the total carbon emissions generated by a single passenger vehicle during the driving stage in a year (C ps ), we have C ps, f,y,s, pw,a = V K T ps,y,s, pw,a × FC ps,y,s, pw,a × E Fy, pw where, V K T ps is the annual mileage covered by single passenger vehicle, FC ps is the fuel consumption (l/100 km, kWh/100 km or kg/100 km), and E F is the carbon emission factor of the corresponding fuel throughout the life cycle (kg CO2 e/L, kg CO2 e/kWh or kg CO2 e/kg). For plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, the total carbon emissions at the corresponding driving stage shall be calculated as follows.  C ps, f,y,s, phev,a = V K T ps,y,s, phev,a ×

 FC ps,y,s, pw,a,sa × E Fy,g × 1 − U F ps,y,s,a,sa +EC ps,y,s,a,sb × E Fy,e × U F ps,y,s,a,sa

where, UF is the electricity utilization coefficient of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, in which the subscript sa represents the energy consumption in state A, the subscript sb represents the fuel consumption in state B, and the subscripts g and e represent gasoline and electricity. The annual vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet are mainly generated by the vehicle manufacturing process in the current year; therefore, to simply the calculation, it is assumed that all the newly sold vehicles in the current year are produced in the current year, and then the total annual vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet can be expressed as follows: C p f,v,y =

 s

Sale p,y,s, pw × C ps,v,y,s, pw

pw

where, Sale p is the annual sales volume of passenger vehicles (units), and C ps,v is the total carbon emissions of a single passenger vehicle in the production stage of the year (tCO2 e/year). The calculation method of carbon emissions of a single passenger vehicle generated in the production stage is consistent with the calculation method of vehicle cycle carbon emissions in CALCM model. C ps,v can be calculated by the following method: C ps,v,y,s, pw = C ps,mat,y,s, pw + C ps, pr od,y,s, pw + C ps,maint,y,s, pw + C ps,esa,y,s, pw C ps,mat , C ps, pr od , C ps,maint and C ps,esa , respectively represent the carbon emissions from raw material acquisition (tCO2 e), the carbon emissions from vehicle production (tCO2 e), the carbon emissions from vehicle maintenance (tCO2 e) and the carbon emissions from refrigerant escape (tCO2 e) of a single passenger vehicle in the current year. For their calculation methods, refer to the calculation methods for Cmaterial , C pr oduction , Cmaintain and Cescape in the model for single vehicle. Different from the single-vehicle carbon footprint, the calculation of fleet carbon emissions involves the change of vehicle population and sales volume. The relationship between the vehicle population and sales volume is as follows:

2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method

Stock p,y =

 s

p

33

Stock p,y−1,s, pw,a + Sale p,y,s, pw − Scrappage p,y,s, pw,a

a

where, Scrappage p is the vehicles decommissioned from the passenger vehicle fleet in the current year (unit). This expression can be interpreted as follows: the population of passenger vehicles in year y is equal to the population of passenger vehicles of the previous year minus the number of decommissioned passenger vehicles in the current year, and plus the number of newly sold passenger vehicles in the current year. The number of decommissioned vehicles in that year is determined by the survival law of vehicles. For vehicles of the same vehicle type but different fuel types, it is assumed that their survival laws are the same (for example, the survival laws of sedans, gasoline vehicles and BEVs are the same). Scrappage p,y =

 s

Stock p,y−1,s,a × 1 − S R p,s,a

a

where, is the survival rate of passenger vehicles, that is, the probability that a vehicle of a specific age will continue to serve in the next year. In this study, the population of the passenger vehicle fleet in the future is calculated by the vehicle ownership per thousand people model [12], which assumes that the population of passenger vehicles per thousand people is mainly related to China’s economic development, specifically, the population of passenger vehicles per thousand people will increase along with the increasing per capita gross national product (GDP) in China. Stock p,y = V O p,y × Pop y /1000 V O p,y = V O p,max × e(−be

−cE y

)

where, V O p is the population of passenger vehicles per thousand people in the current year (vehicles/1000 people), that is, the number of passenger vehicles owned by 1000 people; Pop y is the total population of people in the current year; V O p,max is the saturated population of passenger vehicles per thousand people (vehicles/1000 people), which is assumed to be 350 vehicles/1000 people in this Book; b and c are the fitting parameters, which are fitted according to historical data; E y is the per capita GDP of the current year (yuan/person). Once the number of end-of-life passenger vehicles of each year and the predicted population of passenger vehicles in the future are available, the annual sales of passenger vehicles can be calculated. The number of passenger vehicles of different fuel types is determined by the market share of vehicles of this fuel type. Sale p,y,s = Stock p,y,s − Stock p,y−1,s + Scrappage p,y,s Sale p,y,s, pw = Sale p,y,s × M S p,y,s, pw

34

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

where, M S p is the proportion of passenger vehicles of this fuel type in the sales of the year.

2.4.2 Accounting Method for Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Commercial Vehicle Fleet The calculation logic of the total annual carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet is basically the same as that of the passenger vehicle fleet, and the life cycle calculation method is also adopted. However, considering the large number of types of commercial vehicles and the large differences in fuel consumption rates of different levels of vehicles, this Book, for the convenience of calculation, only considers the trucks and passenger transportation vehicles with large population, and excludes vehicles for special purposes such as cleaning vehicles and fire engines due to the lack of basic data and small population. The annual total carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleet is calculated as follows: Cc f,y = Cc f, f,y + Cc f,v,y where, Cc f is the annual total life cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), Cc f, f is the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), and Cc f,v is the total vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript y represents the year. For the total fuel cycle carbon emissions Cc f, f , we have Cc f, f =

 s

pw

Stockc,y,s, pw,a × Ccs, f,y,s, pw,a

a

where, Stockc is the annual population of commercial vehicles (units), and Ccs, f is the total carbon emissions generated by a single commercial vehicle during the driving stage in a year (tCO2 e/year), in which the subscript s represents the vehicle type, the subscript pw represents the fuel type, and the subscript a represents the vehicle age. For the total carbon emissions generated by a single passenger vehicle during the driving stage in a year (C ps ), we have Ccs, f,y,s, pw,a = V K Tcs,y,s, pw,a × FCcs,y,s, pw,a × E Fy, pw where, V K Tcs is the annual mileage of a single commercial vehicle, FCcs is the fuel consumption (l/100 km, kWh/100 km or kg/100 km), and E F is the carbon emission factor of the corresponding fuel throughout the life cycle (kg CO2 e/L, kg CO2 e/kWh or kg CO2 e/kg).

2.4 Fleet Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method

35

Similarly, assuming that all newly sold commercial vehicles are produced in the same year, the total annual vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet can be expressed as follows Cc f,v,y =

 s

Salec,y,s, pw × Ccs,v,y,s, pw

pw

where, Salec is the annual sales volume of commercial vehicles (units), and C ps,v is the total carbon emission of a single commercial vehicle in the production stage of the year (tCO2 e/ year). The calculation method of carbon emission from the production and manufacturing of a single commercial vehicle is consistent with the calculation method of vehicle cycle carbon emission in the commercial vehicle life cycle carbon emission calculation model mentioned above. Ccs,v can be calculated by the following method: Ccs,v,y,s, pw = Ccs,mat,y,s, pw + Ccs, pr od,y,s, pw + Ccs,maint,y,s, pw + Ccs,esa,y,s, pw Ccs,mat , Ccs, pr od , Ccs,mainta and Ccs,esa respectively represent the carbon emissions from raw material acquisition of a single commercial vehicle and the carbon emissions from the vehicle production in the current year. For their calculation methods, refer to the calculation methods of C material , C Production , C maintain and C Escape in the model for single vehicle. For the population and sales of commercial vehicles, the following relationship also applies: Stockc,y =

 s

pw

Stockc,y−1,s, pw,a + Salec,y,s, pw − Scrappagec,y,s, pw,a

a

where, Scrappagec is the number of commercial vehicles decommissioned from the commercial vehicle fleet in the current year. The number of decommissioned vehicles in that year is determined by the survival law of vehicles. For commercial vehicles of the same vehicle type but different fuel types, it is assumed that their survival laws are the same. 

Scrappagec,y = Stockc,y−1,s,a × 1 − S Rc,s,a s

a

where, S Rc is the survival rate of commercial vehicles. The growth logic of commercial vehicle population is quite different from that of passenger vehicles, and the calculation method of pollution of freight vehicles is also different from that of passenger transport vehicles[13] . For freight vehicles, it is generally believed that their population is mainly driven by the national economy, that is to say, its growth is to support the increased cargo transport demand due to economic growth. Generally, the population is generally not saturated, and is

36

2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Accounting Method for Vehicles

generally calculated by using the elasticity coefficient. Once the number of end-oflife commercial vehicles of each year and the predicted population of commercial vehicles in the future are available, the annual sales volume of commercial vehicles can be calculated. The number of commercial vehicles of different fuel types is determined by the market share of vehicles of this fuel type. Stockc,y,tr uck = Stockc,y−1,tr uck × (1 + AGG R × E tr uck ) where, AGG R is the annual growth rate of GDP, and E tr uck is the elasticity coefficient for calculation of freight vehicle population, which is defined as follows:

E tr uck

Stockc,y,tr uck − Stockc,y−1,tr uck = Stockc,y−1,tr uck



G D Py − G D Py−1 G D Py−1



where GDP is the gross domestic product. Passenger transport vehicles are mainly used to meet the public travel needs of residents. In order to simplify the calculation, it is assumed that the population of passenger transport vehicles is linear with the population of people. Stockc,y,bus&coach = a × Pop y + b where, a and b are fitting parameters. Similarly, the sales volume of commercial vehicles is calculated from the predicted population and the number of end-of-life vehicles. Salec,y,s = Stockc,y,s − Stockc,y−1,s + Scrappagec,y,s Salec,y,s, pw = Salec,y,s × M Sc,y,s, pw where, MS c is the proportion of commercial vehicles of this fuel type in the sales volume of the year.

References 1. He X, Ou S, Gan Y et al (2020) Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy. Nat Commun 11(1):5214 2. IEA, Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy Data Explorer, IEA, Paris (2021). https://www. iea.org/articles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-data-explorer 3. Huo H, Wang M, Johnson L et al (2007) Projection of Chinese motor vehicle growth, oil demand, and CO 2 emissions through 2050. TranspRes Record J Transp Res Board 2038:69–77 4. Zhou G, Ou X, Zhang X (2013) Development of electric vehicles use in China: a study from the perspective of life-cycle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Energy Policy 5. Kim HC, Wallington TJ, Arsenault R et al (2016) Cradle-to-gate emissions from a commercial electric vehicle li-ion battery: a comparative analysis. Environ Sci Technol 50(14):7715–7722

References

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6. International Organization for Standardization (2006) ISO 14040:2006—Environmental management; life cycle assessment; principles and framework 7. Wu Z, Wang M, Zheng J et al (2018) Life cycle greenhouse gas emission reduction potential of battery electric vehicle. J Cleaner Prod 190(JUL.20):462–470 8. Held M (2021) Lifespans of passenger vehicles in Europe: empirical modelling of fleet turnover dynamics. Eur Transp Res Rev 13(1) 9. Garcia R, Freire F (2017) A review of fleet-based life-cycle approaches focusing on energy and environmental impacts of vehicles. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 79(11):935–945 10. Han H, Wang H, Ouyang M (2011) Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet. Energy 36(11):6520–6528 11. Milovanoff A, Kim HC, Kleine RD et al (2019) A dynamic fleet model of U.S light-duty vehicle lightweighting and associated greenhouse gas emissions from 2016 to 2050. Environ Sci Technol 53(4):2199–2208 12. Wu T, Zhang M, Ou X (2014) Analysis of future vehicle energy demand in China based on a Gompertz function method and computable general equilibrium model. Energies 7(11):7454– 7482 13. Peng T, Ou X, Yuan Z et al (2018) Development and application of China provincial road transport energy demand GHG emissions analysis model. Appl Energy 222:313–328

Chapter 3

Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China in 2021

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicles This section, according to the above-mentioned single-vehicle life cycle carbon emission accounting method and the sales volume of passenger vehicles in 2021 (excluding imported models), calculates the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale in 2021. However some models, due to the lack of key data, are not included in this calculation, and only the carbon emissions of 5313 versions of 981 passenger vehicle models from 115 automobile enterprises, which account for 98.7% of total passenger vehicle sales in China, are considered. The carbon emissions are analyzed by fuel type, vehicle level and life cycle stage, as described below.

3.1.1 Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicles of Different Fuel Types According to the single-vehicle carbon emission accounting method, the sales volume of passenger vehicles of five different fuel types, namely, gasoline/diesel passenger vehicles, non off-vehicle chargeable hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles, is weighted averaged to calculate the carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles of different fuel types in 2021. Due to the update of test standards for fuel consumption and electricity consumption of passenger vehicles, the NEDC1 fuel consumption of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and the NEDC electricity consumption of battery electric passenger vehicles, in order to make the calculated data more representative and 1

New European Driving Cycle (NEDC).

© China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_3

39

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3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

prospective, are converted into the current WLTC2 fuel consumption and the current CLTC-P3 electricity consumption respectively, and the fuel consumption in state B and the electricity consumption in state A4 of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles are also converted into data of corresponding test cycle respectively. The conversion factor is averaged from a large number of real vehicle test data. The specific conversion factor is as follows: WLTC fuel consumption = 1.147*NEDC fuel consumption, CLTC-P electricity consumption = 1.03*NEDC electricity consumption. Since the test conditions of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles vary greatly, their results are not comparable to those of passenger vehicles of other fuel types, and are only for display herein. As shown in Fig. 3.1, among the passenger vehicles of the five fuel types, the diesel passenger vehicle ranks first with an average carbon emission up to 369.1 g CO2 e/km; followed in sequence by gasoline passenger vehicle, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle and battery electric passenger vehicle with an average carbon emission of 264.5 g CO2 e/km, 220.8 g CO2 e/km, 213.3 g CO2 e/km and 149.6 g CO2 e/km respectively. Compared with the data in the China Automobile Low Carbon Action Plan (CALCP) Research Report 2021, the average carbon emissions of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plugin hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles, under the influence of test cycle change of fuel consumption and electricity consumption as well as the increase of refrigerant carbon emission factor (refer to the updated data in the Sixth Assessment Report of IPCC), all increased, i.e. by 9.3%, 11.4%, 12.3%, 1.0% and 2.3% respectively. Compared with conventional gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles enjoy a good carbon emission reduction potential, among which battery electric passenger vehicles perform best with an emission reduction rate of 43.4% and 59.5% respectively compared with gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles; followed by plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles with an emission reduction rate of 19.4% and 42.2% compared with gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles, and then by NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles with an emission reduction potential of 16.5% and 40.2% compared with gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles.

2

Worldwide harmonized light vehicles test cycle (WLTC). China light-duty vehicle test cycle-passenger car (CLTC-P). 4 Most of the energy consumptions of plug-in electric passenger cars sold in 2021 are still based on NEDC. However, due to the change of testing cycle, the new version of energy consumption test standard has no expression of state A and state B, and there is no corresponding test cycle conversion factor between the new and old standards. Therefore, this report adopts a compromise method to convert the electricity consumption of state A and fuel consumption of state B into the data of corresponding test cycles respectively to approximate the energy consumption of plug-in electric passenger cars under the new test standard. 3

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions …

41

Fig. 3.1 Carbon emission per unit mileage for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in 2021

3.1.1.1

Analysis on Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicles of Different Fuel Types at Different Life Cycle Stages

The proportion of carbon emissions at each stage of life cycle (vehicle cycle and fuel cycle) calculated based on the single-vehicle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.2. As shown, the proportion of carbon emissions at different stages of the life cycle for passenger vehicles of different fuel types is significantly different, and their carbon emissions in fuel cycle are higher than those in vehicle cycle. The carbon emissions of gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles mainly come from the fuel cycle, with a proportion of 77.3% and 77.0% respectively. With the development of electrification, the proportion of carbon emissions in vehicle cycle gradually increases, while that in fuel cycle gradually decreases. The proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of battery electric passenger vehicles and fuel cycle carbon emissions are basically the same, with the fuel cycle carbon emissions slightly higher. Compared with the data in the China Automobile Low Carbon Action Plan (CALCP) Research Report 2021, the proportions of fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles, except for plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles, increased to some extend, which is a result of the dual effects of test cycle change and increase of refrigerant carbon emission factor. The conventional fuel vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles differ a lot from each in the proportion of life cycle carbon emissions and fuel cycle carbon

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3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.2 Proportion of carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types at different life cycle stages

emissions, which is mainly due to the following two causes: (1). The electric vehicles are driven by batteries, and the material acquisition and production of batteries will emit a large number of greenhouse gases. Therefore, the vehicle cycle carbon emission of battery electric passenger vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles. (2). The battery electric passenger vehicles are electrically driven and thus have an energy conversion efficiency higher than that of fuel vehicles, and in addition, the battery electric vehicles produce zero direct carbon emissions during use. Therefore, their fuel cycle carbon emission is lower than that of fuel vehicles.

3.1.1.2

Analysis on Fuel Cycle Carbon Emissions for Passenger Vehicles of Different Fuel Types

The fuel cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types are shown in Fig. 3.3. As shown, the fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles are mainly within 80.2–284.2 g CO2 e/km, but differ a lot from fuel type to fuel type, with the diesel passenger vehicle ranking first and followed by the gasoline passenger vehicle and then by the battery electric passenger vehicle. Besides, the carbon emissions at different stages of the fuel cycle are also significantly different. As shown in Fig. 3.4, for gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions …

43

Fig. 3.3 Fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel types

NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, their carbon emissions from fuel use are about 4.8 times the carbon emissions from fuel production; for plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, their carbon emissions from fuel use is about 1/6 of the carbon emissions from fuel production, which may be related to their fuel characteristics; the carbon emissions of battery electric passenger vehicles from fuel use is 0.

3.1.1.3

Analysis on Vehicle Cycle Carbon Emissions for Passenger Vehicles of Different Fuel Types

The vehicle cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types are shown in Fig. 3.5. As shown, the fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles are mainly within 60.1–87.2 g CO2 e/km, but differ a lot from fuel type to fuel type, with the plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle ranking first, the diesel passenger vehicle ranking second and the gasoline passenger vehicle ranking last. Besides, the carbon emissions at different stages of the vehicle cycle are also significantly different. As shown in Fig. 3.6, the carbon emissions in the material production stage take a proportion high up to 64.7–77.4%, and compared with conventional fuel vehicles, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles in the material production stage will increase by 5–12%; In addition, the carbon emission from refrigerant escape shall not be ignored, as it accounts for nearly 20% of the carbon emission in the material production stage of conventional fuel vehicles and about 14% of that of electric vehicles; the carbon emission from lead-acid battery replacement is the minimum.

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3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.4 Proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types

Fig. 3.5 Vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel types

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions …

45

Fig. 3.6 Proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types

The carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in the material production stage are shown in Fig. 3.7. As shown, the carbon emission of passenger vehicles in the material production stage are within is within 38.9–61.6 g CO2 e/km, but differ a lot from fuel type to fuel type, with the plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle ranking first, the diesel passenger vehicle ranking second and gasoline passenger vehicle ranking last. Besides, the carbon emissions at different sections of the material acquisition stage are also significantly different. As shown in Fig. 3.8, with the development of electrification, the proportion of carbon emissions from part materials gradually decreases, and the proportion of carbon emissions from batteries gradually increases. Specifically, the proportion of carbon emissions from part materials of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles exceeds 90%, that of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles is 75.1%, and that of battery electric passenger vehicles is 49.1%; the proportion of carbon emissions from batteries of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles is 0.6%, that of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles is 21.2%, and that of battery electric passenger vehicles is 48.3%, nearly half of the total carbon emissions in the material production stage.

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3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

Fig. 3.7 Carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in the material production stage

3.1.2 Accounting Results for Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Passenger Vehicles at Different Levels The average carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles at different levels, which are calculated by weighted averaging of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles according to the sales, are shown in Fig. 3.9. As shown, the carbon emission per unit mileage gradually increases along with the increase of vehicle level in the order of A00-A0-A-B-C. Specifically, the average carbon emission of Level A00 passenger vehicles is 102.9 g CO2 e/km, that of Level C passenger vehicles is 275.6 g CO2 e/km, and that of “other” types of vehicles (namely crossover passenger vehicles, which mainly refer to minivans) is 250.2 g CO2 e/km, slightly higher than that of Level A passenger vehicles. As shown, the carbon emission per unit mileage of Level A00 passenger vehicles is much lower than that of passenger vehicles of other levels, mainly because of the high proportion of battery electric passenger vehicles with low carbon emission in Level A00 passenger vehicles sold (i.e. 99.9%). The carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles at different levels are described in detail below. In order to reflect the representativeness, enterprises and models are screened according to the sales volume, that is, the enterprises with total sales volume in 2021 greater than 10,000, gasoline passenger vehicles with

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions …

47

Fig. 3.8 Proportion of carbon emissions for passenger vehicles of different fuel types in the material production stage

Fig. 3.9 Average carbon emission per unit mileage of passenger vehicles at different levels

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3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Vehicles of China …

sales volume in 2021 greater than 1000, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles with sales volume greater than 100, and battery electric passenger vehicles with sales volume greater than 500; and for models of the same trade name under the same fuel type, the model with the highest carbon emission per unit mileage. Then, in total 566 models are selected, including 392 gasoline passenger vehicle models, 7 diesel passenger vehicle models, 23 NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle models, 20 plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle models, and 124 battery electric passenger vehicle models. The ranking of carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles of different fuel types at each level is as follows, with the passenger vehicles subdivided into sedans and SUVs (including MPVs), but some models are not shown due to a small number under some screening conditions. See “Table of carbon emissions per unit mileage of passenger vehicles (2021)” in Annex V for carbon emissions of all models.

3.1.2.1

Level A00 Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of the carbon emissions per unit mileage of Level A00 passenger vehicles, all of which are sedans and only include 20 battery electric passenger vehicle models. (1) Level A00 battery electric passenger vehicle 1. Top 10 sedans The Top 10 runners of Level A00 battery electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.10, which from low to high are Hongguang mini (91.9 g CO2 e/km), Chery QQ Ice Cream (92.1 CO2 e/km), Fengxing T1 (105.4 g CO2 e/km), Ora Black Cat (105.4 g CO2 e/km), Wuling nano (105.4 g CO2 e/km), Ora White Cat (106.9 g CO2 e/km), Venucia E30 (107.4 g CO2 e/km), Baojun E100 (108.7 g CO2 e/km), Baojun E200 (109.4 g CO2 e/km), SAIC Clever (111.5 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.2

Level A0 Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of A0 class passenger vehicles, including 45 Level A0 gasoline passenger vehicle models (12 sedan models, 25 SUV models and 8 MPV models) and 21 battery electric passenger vehicle models (4 sedan models, 13 SUV models and 4 MPV models). (1) Level A0 gasoline passenger vehicle 1. Top 10 sedans. The Top 10 runners of Level A0 gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.11, which from low to

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions …

49

Fig. 3.10 Top 10 runners of Level A00 battery electric sedans

high are Verna (211.5 g CO2 e/km), Volkswagen Polo (215.5 g CO2 e/k), YARiS L Zhixiang (219.4 g CO2 e/km), Vios FS (222.6 g CO2 e/km), Vios (226.7 g CO2 e/km), Honda LIFE (230.5 g CO2 e/km), Honda Fit (230.5 g CO2 e/km), Huanchi (230.6 g CO2 e/km), Yaris L Zhixuan (230.8 g CO2 e/km), Baojun 310 (237.7 g CO2 e/km). 2. Top 10 SUVs The Top 10 runners of Level A0 gasoline SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.12, which from low to high are Peugeot 2008 (215.6 g CO2 e/km), Kia KX3 (222.7 g CO2 e/km), Kicks (231.3 g CO2 e/km), Hyundai ix25 (233.2 g CO2 e/km), Trax (239.5 g CO2 e/km),

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Fig. 3.11 Top 10 runners of level A0 gasoline sedans

Encore (239.9 g CO2 e/km), Yipao (245.2 g CO2 e/km), Audi Q2L (256.7 g CO2 e/km), Binyue (261.9 g CO2 e/km), Yuanjing X3 (262.3 g CO2 e/km). The carbon emission per unit mileage of Level A0 gasoline SUVs is generally higher than that of sedans, because the SUV has a higher fuel consumption and curb weight. (1) Top 4 Level A0 battery electric passenger vehicles 1. Top 4 sedans The Top 4 runners with the lowest carbon emission of Level A0 battery electric sedans are shown in Fig. 3.13, which from low to high are BYD Dolphin (132.3 g CO2 e/km),

3.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions …

51

Fig. 3.12 Top 10 runners of Level A0 gasoline SUVs

Neta V (133.0 g CO2 e/km), Leapmotor S01 (140.0 g CO2 e/km) and BYD E2 (151.4 g CO2 e/km). 2. Top 10 SUVs The Top 10 runners of Level A0 battery electric SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.14, which from low to high are Geometry EX3 (142.5 g CO2 e/km), Neta N01 (148.6 g CO2 e/km), BYD Yuan Pro (156.6 g CO2 e/km), BYD D1 (158.6 g CO2 e/km), Audi Q2L (161.9 g CO2 e/km), Besturn NAT (163.5 g CO2 e/km), Changan CS15 (165.4 g CO2 e/km), Oshan A600 (171.6 g CO2 e/km), Honda M-NV (172.3 g CO2 e/km), Sehol E40X (174.4 g CO2 e/km).

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Fig. 3.13 Top 4 runners of Level A0 battery electric sedans

3.1.2.3

Level a Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of Level A passenger vehicles, including 203 Level A gasoline passenger vehicle models (71 sedan models, 121 SUV models and 11 MPV models), 14 NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle models (5 sedan models, 8 SUV models and 1 MPV model), 14 plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle models (4 sedan models, 9 SUV models and 1 MPV model), and 49 battery electric passenger vehicle models (30 sedan models, 17 SUV models and 2 MPV models), and besides, 2 diesel SUV models which, however, are not displayed due to a small volume. (1) Level A gasoline passenger vehicle 1. Top 10 sedans The Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.15, which from low to high are Elantra (211.2 g CO2 e/km), New Sylphy (214.0 g CO2 e/km), Jetta VA3 (222.3 g CO2 e/km), Empow (224.9 g CO2 e/km), Bluebird (225.0 g CO2 e/km), Tiida (225.0 g CO2 e/km), Suna Santana (228.3 g CO2 e/km), Rapid Spaceback (230.9 g CO2 e/km), Envix (231.8 g CO2 e/km) and Integra (232.3 g CO2 e/km). 2. Top 10 SUVs The Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.16, which from low to high

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Fig. 3.14 Top 10 runners of level A0 battery electric SUVs

are T-Cross (224.3 g CO2 e/km), Haval Red Rabbit (231.6 g CO2 e/km), Karoq (236.0 g CO2 e/km), Tacqua (243.3 g CO2 e/km), Mazda CX-30 (243.4 g CO2 e/km), Kamiq GT (245.2 g CO2 e/km), Toyota C-HR (247.6 g CO2 e/km), IZOA (247.6 g CO2 e/km), Kamiq (248.4 g CO2 e/km) and Emgrand S (249.6 g CO2 e/km). (2) Level A NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle 1. Top 5 sedans The Top 5 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.17, which from low to high are Sylphy e-POWER (185.4 g CO2 e/km), Envix (191.6 g CO2 e/km), Crider (192.1 g CO2 e/km), Carola (193.0 g CO2 e/km) and Levin (193.9 g CO2 e/km). 2. Top 9 SUVs

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Fig. 3.15 Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline sedans

The Top 9 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric SUVs (MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.18, which from low to high are Macchiato (197.7 g CO2 e/km), IZOA (208.9 g CO2 e/km), Haval H6S (214.0 g CO2 e/km), Acura CDX (229.0 g CO2 e/km), Wildlander (230.9 g CO2 e/km), Toyota RAV4 (232.2 g CO2 e/km) Breeze (236.8g CO2 e/km), Honda CR-V (251.4g CO2 e/km) and Odyssey (266.3 g CO2 e/km). (3) Level A plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle 3. Top 4 sedans The Top 4 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.19, which from low to high are Elantra (167.6 g CO2 e/km), BYD Qin PLUS (170.9 g CO2 e/km), Kia K3 (177.1 g CO2 e/km) and BYD Qin Pro (187.5 g CO2 e/km).

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Fig. 3.16 Top 10 runners of Level A gasoline SUVs

2. Top 10 SUVs The Top 10 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.20, which from low to high are Breeze (196.0 g CO2 e/km), Macchiato (198.7 g CO2 e/km), Xingyue (200.2 g CO2 e/km), Escape (206.6 g CO2 e/km), Lynk&Co 01 (211.0 g CO2 e/km), BYD Song Pro (211.3 g CO2 e/km) Lynk&Co 05 (211.8 g CO2 e/km), Vetlanda (212.4 g CO2 e/km), BYD Song Max (214.5 g CO2 e/km) and Roewe eRX5 (217.1 g CO2 e/km). (4) Level A battery electric passenger vehicle 4. Top 10 sedans The Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.21, which from low to high

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Fig. 3.17 Top 5 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric sedans

are e-Elysee (141.6 g CO2 e/km), Ora Good Cat (144.5 g CO2 e/km), Ora IQ (16.7 g CO2 e/km), BYD E3 (151.5 g CO2 e/km), Besturn B30 (157.5 g CO2 e/km), Lavida (158.5 g CO2 e/km), Bora (158.6 g CO2 e/km), Golf (159.2 g CO2 e/km), Venucia D60 (160.8 g CO2 e/km) and LA FESTA (163.7 g CO2 e/km). 2. Top 10 SUVs The Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.22, which from low to high are Xuanjie (163.3 g CO2 e/km), WM W6 (166.9 g CO2 e/km), IZOA (167.3 g CO2 e/km), Buick Velite 7 (167.4 g CO2 e/km), WM EX5 (169.7 g CO2 e/km), Toyota C-HR (169.9 g CO2 e/km), Tiggo W (172.5 g CO2 e/km), Venucia T60 (178.9 g CO2 e/km), Geometry C (181.8 g CO2 e/km) and Neta U (185.3 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.4

Level B Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of Level B passenger vehicles, including 113 Level B gasoline passenger vehicle models (36 sedan models, 61 SUV models and 16 MPV models), 4 diesel passenger vehicle

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Fig. 3.18 Top 9 runners of Level A NOVC hybrid electric SUVs

models (which are SUVs), 9 NOCV hybrid electric passenger vehicle models (5 sedan models, 2 SUV models and 2 MPV models), and 25 battery electric passenger vehicle models (7 sedan models, 17 SUV models and 1 MPV model), and 2 plug-in hybrid electric SUV models which, however, are not displayed due to a small volume. (1) Level B gasoline passenger vehicle 1. Top 10 sedans The Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.23, which from low to high are Versailles C5X (248.4 g CO2 e/km), Yixuan MAX (253.3 g CO2 e/km), Preface (256.0 g CO2 e/km), Sonata (257.6 g CO2 e/km), Optima (259.5 g CO2 e/km), Peugeot 508 l (261.8 g CO2 e/km), Avalon (268.5 g CO2 e/km), Honda INSPIRE (271.3 g CO2 e/km), Cadillac CT4 (274.2 g CO2 e/km) and Trumpchi GA6 (279.2 g CO2 e/km).

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Fig. 3.19 Top 4 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric sedans

2. Top 10 SUVs The Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.24, which from low to high are Haval Mythical Beast (270.6 g CO2 e/km), Peugeot 5008 (286.9 g CO2 e/km), Custo (289.0 g CO2 e/km), Tiguan X (290.8 g CO2 e/km), BYD Song PLUS (292.1 g CO2 e/km), Haval H7 (293.1 g CO2 e/km), Mocha (294.1 g CO2 e/km), Wuling Journey (296.7 g CO2 e/km), WEY VV7 (306.4 g CO2 e/km) and Envision Plus (300.7 g CO2 e/km). (2) Level B diesel passenger vehicle 1. Top 4 MPVs The Top 4 runners of Level B diesel MPVs with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.25, which from low to high are Refine M4 (334.8 g CO2 e/km), Refine M5 (359.7 g CO2 e/km), SAIC Maxus G10 (368.4 g CO2 e/km) and SAIC Maxus G20 (370.8 g CO2 e/km). (3) Level B NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle 1. Top 5 sedans The Top 5 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.26, which from low to high are Yixuan MAX (203.0 g CO2 e/km), Avalon (208.0 g CO2 e/km), Accord (208.2 g CO2 e/km), Honda INSPIRE (208.5 g CO2 e/km) and Camry (236.7 g CO2 e/km).

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Fig. 3.20 Top 10 runners of Level A plug-in hybrid electric SUVs

2. Top 4 SUVs The Top 4 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.27, which from low to high are Sienna (249.1 g CO2 e/km), Crown Kluger (268.6 g CO2 e/km), Elysion (270.4 g CO2 e/km) and Highlander (272.4 g CO2 e/km). (4) Level B battery electric passenger vehicle 1. Top 8 sedans The Top 8 runners of Level B battery electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.28, which from low to high are EA6 (167.9 g CO2 e/km), GAC iA5 (169.2 g CO2 e/km), Trumpchi AION S (171.7 g CO2 e/km), Sehol E50A (172.6 g CO2 e/km), XPeng P5 (173.5 g CO2 e/km), BAIC EU7 (182.9 g CO2 e/km), Tesla Model 3 (187.8 g CO2 e/km) and BAIC ARCFOX αS (231.8 g CO2 e/km).

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Fig. 3.21 Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric sedans

2. Top 10 SUVs The Top 10 runners of Level B battery electric SUVs (including MPVs) with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.29, which from low to high are BYD Song PLUS (184.4 g CO2 e/km), Ant (196.4 g CO2 e/km), Volkswagen ID.6 X (203.8 g CO2 e/km), lingzhi (203.9 g CO2 e/km), Volkswagen ID.6 CROZZ (205.9 g CO2 e/km), Tesla Model Y (206.6 g CO2 e/km), Roewe Marvel R (207.2 g CO2 e/km), Trumpchi AION V (215.7 g CO2 e/km), NIO ES6 (217.0 g CO2 e/km) and BMW iX3 (217.6 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.5

Level C Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of Level C passenger vehicles, including 19 Level C gasoline passenger vehicle models

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Fig. 3.22 Top 10 runners of Level A battery electric SUVs

(12 sedan models and 7 SUV models), 1 diesel passenger vehicle model (which is SUV), 4 NOCV hybrid electric passenger vehicle models (3 sedan models and 1 SUV model), and 6 battery electric passenger vehicle models (4 sedan models and 2 SUV models); No diesel SUV models, plug-in hybrid electric SUVs and battery electric SUV models are available for Level C passenger vehicles and thus are not shown here. (1) Level C gasoline passenger vehicle 1. Top 10 sedans The Top 10 runners of Level C gasoline sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.30, which from low to high are Phideon (282.0 g CO2 e/km), Citroen C6 (282.6 g CO2 e/km), Cadillac CT5

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Fig. 3.23 Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline sedans

(303.4 g CO2 e/km), Volvo S90 (303.9 g CO2 e/km), Benz E-Class (323.5 g CO2 e/km), BMW 5 Series (324.7 g CO2 e/km), Cadillac CT6 (325.2 g CO2 e/km), Taurus (328.6 g CO2 e/km), Jaguar XFL (330.5 g CO2 e/km) and Audi A6L (359.7 g CO2 e/km). 2. Top 7 SUVs The Top 7 runners of Level C gasoline SUVs with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.31, which from low to high are Lynk&Co 09 (341.0 g CO2 e/km), Teramont X (354.4 g CO2 e/km), Teramont

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Fig. 3.24 Top 10 runners of Level B gasoline SUVs

(358.0 g CO2 e/km), Talagon (375.9 g CO2 e/km), Explorer (378.2 g CO2 e/km), Aviator (415.1 g CO2 e/km) and Hongqi HS7 (450.0 g CO2 e/km). (2) Level C plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle 1. Top 3 sedans The Top 3 runners of Level C plug-in hybrid electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.32, which from low to high are BYD Han (209.9 g CO2 e/km), Benz E-class (212.6 g CO2 e/km) and Geely TX (227.2 g CO2 e/km). (3) Level C battery electric passenger vehicle

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Fig. 3.25 Top 4 runners of Level B diesel MPVs

Fig. 3.26 Top 5 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric sedans

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Fig. 3.27 Top 4 runners of Level B NOVC hybrid electric SUVs

1. Top 4 sedans The Top 4 runners of Level C battery electric sedans with the lowest carbon emission per unit mileage are shown in Fig. 3.33, which from low to high are Hongqi E-QM5 (174.0 g CO2 e/km), BYD Han (201.5 g CO2 e/km), XPeng P7 (214.0 g CO2 e/km) and Zeekr 001 (243.0 g CO2 e/km).

3.1.2.6

Crossover Passenger Vehicles

This subsection addresses the accounting of carbon emissions per unit mileage of crossover passenger vehicles, including 12 gasoline passenger vehicle models and 3 battery electric passenger vehicle models. (1) Top 10 gasoline crossover passenger vehicles The Top 10 runners of gasoline crossover passenger vehicles are shown in Fig. 3.34, which from low to high are Wuling Zhiguang (233.6 g CO2 e/km), DFSK k07s (254.5 g CO2 e/km), Wuling Rongguang S (263.9 g CO2 e/km), Xiaohaishi X30 (263.9 g CO2 e/km), Changan V3 (266.6 g CO2 e/km), Changan Star 5ct6 (269.3 g CO2 e/km), DFSK C36 (269.8 g CO2 e/km), Changan Star 9 (284.0 g CO2 e/km), Wuling Rongguang (287.7 g CO2 e/km) and Xiaohaishi X30L (296.7 g CO2 e/km).

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Fig. 3.28 Top 8 runners of Level B battery electric sedans

(1) Top 3 battery electric crossover passenger vehicles The Top 3 runners of battery electric crossover passenger vehicles are shown in Fig. 3.35, which from low to high are Xiaohaishi X30L (147.4 g CO2 e/km), Wuling Rongguang (164.2 g CO2 e/km) and DFSK C36 (178.0 g CO2 e/km).

3.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Commercial Vehicles This study, according to the classification in GB 20,997–2015 Limits of fuel consumption for light-duty commercial vehicles and GB 30,510–2018 Limits of fuel consumption for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, selects trucks of categories N1, N2, N3 as

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Fig. 3.29 Top 10 runners of Level B battery electric SUVs

well as buses and coaches of categories M2, M3 as research objects, as shown in Fig. 3.36. Vehicles of category N1 refer to light-duty trucks with a maximum design GVM less than 3500 kg, covering gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, NOVC HEVs, BEVs, FCEVs and vehicles of other fuel types; vehicles of categories N2 and N3 refer to heavy-duty single-unit trucks, heavy-duty dump trucks and heavy-duty tractors with a maximum design GVM greater than 3500 kg, covering diesel vehicles, NOVC HEVs, NGVs, BEVs and FCEVs. Buses of categories M2 and M3 cover buses of such fuel types as diesel, natural gas, NOVC hybrid power, battery and fuel cell; coaches of categories M2 and M3 cover coaches of such fuel types as gasoline, diesel, NOVC hybrid power, natural gas, battery and fuel cell. In order to ensure the comparability

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Fig. 3.30 Top 10 runners of Level C gasoline sedans

of life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles of the same type, this study defines the functional unit of each type of commercial vehicle, i.e. g CO2 e/t·km for trucks and g CO2 e/person·km for buses and coaches, as shown in Table 3.1.

3.2.1 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Light-Duty Trucks According to the classification in GB 30,510–2018 Limits of fuel consumption for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, light-duty trucks with a maximum design GVM less than 3500 kg are selected for this study, which cover five fuel types including gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, battery electric light-duty trucks,

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Fig. 3.31 Top 7 runners of Level C gasoline SUVs

NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks*5 and fuel cell electric light-duty truck*. Among them gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks and battery electric lightduty trucks of actual models with similar uses and loads are selected. However, there are no NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks commercially available in the domestic market, and to increase the comparability of the study, those two kinds of light-duty trucks are simulated by adding the diesel lightduty truck hybrid system and referencing the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles to provide a reference for the comparison of light-duty trucks of different fuel types. The basic parameters and information of light-duty trucks selected for this study are shown in Table 3.2.

5

The models marked by * are simulated models for the purpose of reference.

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Fig. 3.32 Top 3 runners of Level C plug-in hybrid electric sedans

Fig. 3.33 Top 4 runners of Level C battery electric sedans

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Fig. 3.34 Top 10 runners of gasoline crossover passenger vehicles

3.2.1.1

Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Light-Duty Trucks of Different Fuel Types

(1) Research results of life cycle carbon emissions for light-duty trucks of different fuel types The life cycle carbon emissions of representative light-duty trucks of each fuel type, which are directly related to the curb weight, load and energy consumption per 100 km, are shown in Fig. 3.37, and the life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of the five fuel types are ranked from high to low as follows: fuel cell electric light-duty truck* > diesel light-duty truck > gasoline light-duty truck > NOVC

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Fig. 3.35 Top 3 runners of battery electric crossover passenger vehicles

Fig. 3.36 Classification of commercial vehicles

hybrid electric light-duty truck* > battery electric light-duty truck”. In addition, for light-duty trucks of each fuel type, the fuel cycle carbon emission is the largest contributor of the life cycle carbon emissions with a proportion of 83–95%; in other words, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emission in the life cycle carbon emissions is very low. Although hydrogen is an ideal clean energy in the future, the fuel

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Table 3.1 Classification and functional units of commercial vehicles Vehicle type

Functional unit

N1, with GVW < 3.5 t

Light-duty truck

g CO2 e/t·km

N2/N3, with GVW > 3.5 t

Heavy-duty single-unit truck

g CO2 e/t·km

Heavy-duty dump truck

g CO2 e/t·km

Heavy-duty tractor

g CO2 e/t·km

Coach

g CO2 e/person·km

Bus

g CO2 e/person·km

Category Truck

Bus/coach

M2/M3

Table 3.2 Basic parameters and information of single light-duty truck Fuel type

Gasoline

Diesel

Battery

NOVC hybrid*

Fuel cell*

Curb weight, kg

1360

1290

1460

1400

2094

Maximum design GVM, kg

2180

2330

2290

2440

2919

Load, kg

820

1040

830

1040

825

Life cycle mileage, km

600,000

600,000

600,000

600,000

600,000

Energy consumption per 100 km

7.0

7.1

14.3

5.9

1.3

Unit of energy consumption

L

L

KWh

L

kg

cell electric light-duty trucks** have not shown a good carbon emission reduction potential, which is because of the high level of carbon emission from the current hydrogen production process. Therefore, although the fuel cell electric light-duty truck* boasts “zero carbon emission” during use, its life cycle carbon emission is far higher than that of fuel light-duty trucks (including diesel light-duty trucks, gasoline light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*) and battery electric lightduty trucks, specifically, 194% higher than that of battery electric light-duty trucks and 37% higher than that of diesel light-duty trucks. Therefore, it is not suitable to be vigorously developed at this stage. In contrast, under the current power supply structure dominated by thermal power, the life cycle carbon emission of battery electric light-duty trucks is still the lowest, and it still has a dominating advantage in carbon emission. In addition, among the fuel light-duty trucks, the carbon emission of NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks* is lower than (i.e. only 94% and 84%) that of gasoline light-duty trucks and diesel light-duty trucks. Therefore, the NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks* is recommended to be properly developed to replace the conventional diesel light-duty trucks, and serve as the transition model before the vigorous development of battery electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks. In order to further improve the comparability between light-duty trucks of different fuel types and study the carbon emission per unit transport capacity, the carbon

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Fig. 3.37 Total life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

emissions per unit turnover (t km/t km) of light-duty trucks of different fuel types are calculated through diving the life cycle carbon emissions by vehicle load and life cycle mileage for the convenience of study, and the research results are shown in Fig. 3.38. Due to difference in load, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of light-duty trucks of different fuel types is different from the life cycle total carbon emission. The light-duty trucks of the five fuel types are ranked as per a decreasing life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover in the following order: fuel cell electric lightduty truck*, gasoline light-duty truck, diesel light-duty truck, NOVC hybrid electric light-duty truck*, and battery electric light-duty truck. According to this ranking, the battery electric light-duty truck has the best carbon emission performance, with the carbon emission per unit turnover only being 51% of that of gasoline light-duty truck, 58% of that of diesel light-duty truck, and 34% of that of fuel cell electric light-duty truck*. The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under different hydrogen production processes are shown in Fig. 3.39. As mentioned above, at present, fuel cell electric vehicles have no advantage in life cycle carbon emission reduction, mainly because in China, the hydrogen production process from fossil fuels is dominated, but the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under the hydrogen production scenarios including hydrogen production from chlor-alkali, biological hydrogen production and hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy is lower than that of conventional gasoline/diesel vehicles. Moreover, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks applying the hydrogen produced by water electrolysis from renewable energy has been lower

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Fig. 3.38 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of light-duty trucks

than that of battery electric vehicles, showing the huge carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric vehicles in the future. (2) Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.40. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of six main parts including raw material acquisition, vehicle production, refrigerant escape, tyre replacement and fluid replacement. For the light-duty trucks of five fuel types, a vast majority (namely 75–86%) of the vehicle cycle carbon emissions come from the raw material acquisition, and refrigerant escape is also a main contributor with the carbon emission accounting for 9–12% of the vehicle cycle carbon emission, which directly reflects the importance of replacement with low-carbon refrigerant. The contributions of the other four parts of vehicle cycle to the vehicle cycle carbon emission are very low. The carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types in the raw material acquisition stage is shown in Fig. 3.41. Herein, the raw material acquisition stage mainly consists of six parts including part material, tyre, fluid, lead-acid battery, battery and fuel cell system. For gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks and NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*, a vast majority (namely more than 90%) of the carbon emissions in the raw material acquisition stage come from the production of part materials. While for the battery electric light-duty trucks, the carbon emissions from the battery production may account for 41% of the total carbon emissions in the raw material acquisition stage. For the fuel cell electric light-duty trucks*, in addition to the production of part materials, the production of fuel cell system is also a main contributor to the carbon emission in the raw material acquisition stage, with a proportion up to 24%.

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Fig. 3.39 Life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under different hydrogen production processes

Fig. 3.40 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks

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Fig. 3.41 Carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks at raw material acquisition stage

(3) Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.42. Herein, the fuel cycle consists of fuel production process and fuel use process. For fuel light-duty trucks (including gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*), 83% of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the fuel use process, and the remaining 17% from the fuel production process. For battery electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks*, the fuel cycle carbon emissions all come from the fuel production process.

Fig. 3.42 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of light-duty trucks

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3.2.1.2

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Conclusion for Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Light-Duty Trucks

1. In the short term, the electrification of light-duty trucks is the best way to reduce the carbon emissions of cargo transportation by light-duty trucks, and NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks**can be applied as the transition before the full electrification of light-duty trucks. Among light-duty trucks of all fuel types, battery electric light-duty trucks have the lowest carbon emission per unit turnover, followed by NOVC hybrid electric light-duty trucks*, diesel/gasoline light-duty trucks and gasoline light-duty trucks, and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks* which, due to the high carbon emission of the current hydrogen production process, has the highest carbon emission per unit turnover, and is not suitable for large-scale promotion in the short term. 2. Low-carbon transformation for the fuel cycle is the key to the life cycle carbon emission reduction of light-duty trucks. Most of the life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks come from the fuel cycle and only a small part from the vehicle cycle. Therefore, reducing the fuel cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types is the key to the carbon emission reduction of light-duty trucks.

3.2.2 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Heavy-Duty Trucks According to the classification in GB 30,510–2018 Limits of fuel consumption for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, heavy-duty single-unit trucks, heavy-duty dump trucks and heavy-duty tractors with a maximum design GVM greater than 3500 kg are selected for this study, among which the heavy-duty single-unit trucks cover four fuel types including diesel, NOVC hybrid power, natural gas and battery, the heavy-duty dump trucks cover five fuel types including diesel, NOVC hybrid power, natural gas, battery and fuel cell, and the heavy-duty tractors cover five fuel types including diesel, NOVC hybrid power, natural gas, battery and fuel cell. In order to facilitate the horizontal comparison of the final results, and with the availability of data comprehensively considered, the representative models selected for each model and fuel type are taken from China’s Top 3 heavy-duty truck models in sales in 2020.

3.2.2.1

Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Heavy-Duty Single-Unit Trucks of Different Fuel Types

Life cycle carbon emissions for heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types. The basic parameters and information of the heavy-duty single-unit trucks selected for this study are shown in Table 3.3.

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Table 3.3 Basic parameters and information for heavy-duty single-unit trucks Fuel type

Diesel

NOVC hybrid

Natural gas

Battery

Curb weight, kg

2600

2750

2565

2960

Maximum design GVM, kg

4290

4495

4495

4465

Load, kg

1690

1745

1930

1505

Life cycle mileage, km

700,000

700,000

700,000

700,000

Energy consumption per 100 km

11.0

6.9

12.0

27.8

Unit of energy consumption

L

L

m3

KWh

In order to ensure the comparability of life cycle carbon emissions between heavyduty single-unit trucks of different fuel types, the heavy-duty single-unit trucks with maximum design GVM around 4.5 t are selected for this study, while the curb weight may vary due to the structural differences of vehicles of different fuel types. For the life cycle mileage, the end-of-life guidance on mileage for heavy-duty trucks specified in the Regulation on Mandatory Scrapping of Motor Vehicles jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Public Security applies, that is 700,000 km. The total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types are shown in Fig. 3.43. Unlike passenger vehicles, the fuel cycle carbon emission of heavy-duty single-unit trucks dominates the life cycle carbon emission, with a proportion high up to 85–95%. Since the maximum design GVM of heavy-duty single-unit trucks is mainly about 4.5 t, and their curb weight, energy consumption per 100 km and other parameters are close to those of light-duty single-unit trucks, the total life cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types is similar to that of light-duty single-unit trucks. The heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types are ranked following an increasing total life cycle carbon emissions as follows: natural gas heavy-duty single-unit truck > diesel heavy-duty single-unit truck > NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty single-unit truck > battery electric heavy-duty single-unit truck. The fuel cell electric heavyduty single-unit trucks of this mass segment have not been commercialized and thus are not considered herein. According to the current results, battery electric heavyduty single-unit truck has a comparative advantage in the total life cycle carbon emission, which is consistent with the current situation that new energy logistics vehicles (mainly of which are single-unit trucks) take a dominant position in the new energy transformation of commercial vehicles. Compared with diesel vehicles and natural gas vehicles, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles are reduced by 43% and 44% respectively, while NOVC hybrid electric vehicles also have a comparative advantage in emission reduction, with life cycle carbon emissions reduced by about 30% compared with diesel vehicles. Unlike passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles are mainly for commercial operations. For a better comparison of the carbon emission per unit transportation capacity of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types, the total life cycle carbon emission is converted into carbon emission per unit turnover (t·km/t·km) according to

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Fig. 3.43 Total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

load and life cycle mileage of the vehicle, as shown in Fig. 3.44. The life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty single-unit truck is different from the total life cycle carbon emission. Specifically, due to a higher load capacity than diesel vehicle, the natural gas vehicle has a lower carbon emission per unit turnover than that of diesel vehicle, and the ranking of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty single-unit trucks from high to low is as follows: diesel heavy-duty single-unit truck > natural gas heavy-duty single-unit truck > NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty single-unit truck > battery electric heavy-duty single-unit truck. Among the vehicles fueled by fossil energy, NOVC hybrid electric vehicles currently show certain advantages in emission reduction with the lowest life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover, i.e. 36% lower than that of diesel vehicles and 29% lower than that of natural gas vehicles. However, the carbon emission per unit turnover of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks is still the lowest among the heavy-duty single-unit trucks of all fuel types, and is 37% lower than that of diesel vehicles. Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types. The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.45. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of raw material acquisition, vehicle production, refrigerant escape, fluid replacement, tyre replacement and lead-acid battery replacement. Among all these stages, the raw material acquisition stage account for more than 80% of the vehicle cycle carbon emission. The refrigerant escape, which follows the raw material acquisition, becomes the second largest source to the vehicle cycle carbon emission, with a proportion of about 8%. The carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks at the raw material acquisition stage is shown in Fig. 3.46. As shown, the raw material acquisition stage

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Fig. 3.44 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

Fig. 3.45 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

consists of part material, tyre, fluid, lead-acid battery, traction battery and fuel cell. Among the vehicles of all fuel types, the carbon emission structures of vehicles powered by fossil fuels at the raw material acquisition stage are relatively similar, with more than 95% of the carbon emissions from the acquisition and processing of part materials. While for new energy vehicles including battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, the battery and fuel cell system are the second largest emission sources following part materials. Specifically, the battery accounts for more than 40% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of battery electric vehicles, while the fuel cell system accounts for about 20% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of fuel cell electric vehicles.

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Fig. 3.46 Carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks at raw material acquisition stage

Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types. The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.47. Herein, the fuel cycle consists of fuel production process and fuel use process. The battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles produce zero carbon emissions in the fuel use process, and 100% of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from fuel production; while for diesel vehicles, NOVC hybrid vehicles and natural gas vehicles, the fuel cycle carbon emissions mainly come from fuel use (with a proportion more than 80%), and only less than 20% come from fuel production.

Fig. 3.47 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

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3.2.2.2

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Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Heavy-Duty Dump Trucks of Different Fuel Types

Life cycle carbon emissions for heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types. The basic parameters and information of the heavy-duty dump trucks selected for this study are shown in Table 3.4. In order to ensure the comparability of life cycle carbon emissions between heavyduty dump trucks of different fuel types, unlike heavy-duty single-unit trucks, the heavy-duty dump trucks with maximum design GVM around 31 t are selected for this study, while the curb weight may vary due to the structural differences of vehicles of different fuel types. Similarly, for the life cycle mileage, the end-of-life guidance on mileage for heavy-duty trucks specified in the Regulation on Mandatory Scrapping of Motor Vehicles jointly issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Public Security applies, that is 700,000 km. The total life cycle carbon emission of heavy-duty dump trucks of various fuel types are shown in Fig. 3.48, and the ranking from high to low is as follows: fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump truck > diesel heavy-duty dump truck > NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty dump truck > battery electric heavy-duty dump truck > natural gas heavy-duty dump truck. At present when the total life cycle carbon emission is taken as the assessment standard, natural gas is the best alternative fuel, enabling the total life cycle carbon emission of natural gas vehicles to be reduced by 37% compared with diesel vehicles and up to 240% compared with fuel cell vehicles. Among the new energy vehicles, the total life cycle carbon emission of fuel cell electric vehicles, mainly because the hydrogen production from fossil fuels takes a dominated position among all hydrogen production processes currently in China, is significantly higher than that of vehicles of other fuel types, and is even 215% of that of diesel vehicles; while the battery electric vehicles, though China’s power structure is still dominated by thermal power, have shown comparative advantage in carbon emission reduction, with the total life cycle carbon emissions reduced by 36% compared with diesel vehicles. With the deployment of clean power grid in the future and the gradual expansion of hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy, the advantages of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles will become more and more prominent. Table 3.4 Basic parameters and information for heavy-duty dump trucks Fuel type

Diesel

NOVC hybrid Natural gas Battery

Fuel cell

Curb weight, kg

15,500

15,720

15,500

18,000

18,000

Maximum design GVM, kg

31,000

31,000

31,000

31,000

31,000

Load, kg

16,736

16,533

16,736

17,316

16,976

Life cycle mileage, km

700,000 700,000

Energy consumption per 100 km 47 Unit of energy consumption

L

700,000

700,000 700,000

38

31

128

12

L

m3

KWh

Kg

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Fig. 3.48 Total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of heavy-duty dump trucks are shown in Fig. 3.49. Since the load capacities of selected heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types are basically the same, the ranking of their life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover is also very similar to that of their total life cycle carbon emission. The gap of carbon emission between the natural gas heavy-duty dump trucks and the battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks is further widened, mainly because the battery pack on the battery electric vehicle occupies a part of the vehicle load capacity, and when the total life cycle carbon emission is converted into the carbon emission per unit turnover, the load factor will be reflected. At present, the natural gas vehicle is the most advantageous in carbon emission reduction among vehicles of all fuel types considered, and ranks first with a life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover 37% lower than that of the diesel vehicle, which is followed by the battery electric vehicle with a life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover 24% lower than that of diesel vehicles. Battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, which are both new energy vehicles, produce zero carbon emissions in the fuel use process. Although the vehicle cycle carbon emission of fuel cell electric vehicles is lower than that of battery electric vehicles, their fuel cycle carbon emission is about 4 times that of battery electric vehicles, which reflects the high carbon emission intensity of China’s hydrogen production process. The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks under different hydrogen production processes are shown in Fig. 3.50. As mentioned above, at present, fuel cell electric vehicles have no advantage in life cycle carbon emission reduction, mainly because in China, the hydrogen production process from fossil fuels is dominated, but the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under the hydrogen production

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Fig. 3.49 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty dump trucks

scenarios including chlor-alkali hydrogen production, biological hydrogen production and hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy is lower than that of diesel vehicles. Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types. The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.51. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of raw material acquisition, vehicle production, refrigerant escape, fluid replacement, tyre replacement and lead-acid battery replacement. Different from the single-unit trucks, the proportion of carbon emission of heavy-duty dump trucks at the raw material acquisition stage in the vehicle cycle carbon emission increases, which is mainly due to the large contribution of carbon mission from tyre replacement. The carbon emission of heavy-duty dump trucks at the raw material acquisition stage dominates their vehicle cycle carbon emission, with a proportion up to 55–80%. Tyre replacement is the second largest emission source of vehicle cycle carbon emission, with a proportion of more than 30% for diesel vehicles and natural gas vehicles, and about 20% for battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. The carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks at the raw material acquisition stage is shown in Fig. 3.52. Among the vehicles of all fuel types, the carbon emission structures of vehicles powered by fossil fuels at the raw material acquisition stage are relatively similar, with more than 90% of the carbon emissions from the acquisition and processing of part materials. While for new energy vehicles including battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, the battery and fuel cell system are the second largest emission sources following part materials. Specifically, the battery accounts for more than 30% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of battery electric vehicles, while the fuel cell system

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Fig. 3.50 Life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks under different hydrogen production processes

Fig. 3.51 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks

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Fig. 3.52 Carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks at raw material acquisition stage

accounts for more than 10% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of fuel cell electric vehicles. Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types. The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.53. Herein, the fuel cycle consists of fuel production process and fuel use process. The battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles produce zero carbon emissions in the fuel use process, and 100% of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from fuel production; while for diesel vehicles, NOVC hybrid vehicles and natural gas vehicles, the fuel cycle carbon emissions mainly come from fuel use, and only less than 20% come from fuel production.

3.2.2.3

Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Heavy-Duty Tractors of Different Fuel Types

Life cycle carbon emissions for heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types. The basic parameters and information of the heavy-duty tractors selected for this study are shown in Table 3.5. In order to ensure the comparability of life cycle carbon emissions between heavyduty tractors of different fuel types, the heavy-duty tractors with maximum design GVM around 48 t are selected for this study, while the curb weight may vary due to the structural differences of vehicles of different fuel types. For the life cycle mileage, the end-of-life guidance on mileage for heavy-duty trucks specified in the Regulation on Mandatory Scrapping of Motor Vehicles jointly issued by the Ministry

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Fig. 3.53 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty dump trucks

Table 3.5 Basic parameters and information for heavy-duty tractors Fuel type

Diesel

NOVC hybrid Natural gas Battery

Fuel cell

Curb weight, kg

8805

8800

8800

11,900

13,400

Maximum design GVM, kg

48,805

48,800

48,800

48,270

49,205

Load, kg

40,000

40,000

40,000

36,370

35,805

Life cycle mileage, km

700,000 700,000

Energy consumption per 100 km 38 Unit of energy consumption

L

700,000

700,000 700,000

31

30

148

15

L

m3

KWh

Kg

of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Public Security applies, that is 700,000 km. The total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types are shown in Fig. 3.54, and the ranking is similar to that of heavy-duty dump trucks as follows: fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors > diesel heavy-duty tractors > battery electric heavy-duty tractors > NOVC hybrid electric heavy-duty tractors > natural gas heavy-duty tractors. At present when the total life cycle carbon emission is taken as the assessment standard, natural gas is the best alternative fuel, enables the total life cycle carbon emission of natural gas vehicles to be reduced by 25% compared with diesel vehicles. Among the new energy vehicles, battery electric vehicles have shown comparative advantage in emission reduction with their life cycle total carbon emissions reduced by 15% compared with diesel vehicles, and in the future with the deployment of clean power grid, it will embrace a greater emission reduction potential. The heavy-duty tractors are mainly applied in longdistance trunk road transportation and port short-distance transportation. For longdistance transportation, a longer range is required, and in combination with other

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factors such as changes in hydrogen production process in the future, the FCEV path, which has such advantages as long range and short refueling duration, is more suitable than the BEV path; for short-distance transportation in ports or other places without concern on mileage, both BEV path and FCEV path are suitable. The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of heavy tractors are shown in Fig. 3.55. Since the load capacities of selected heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types are basically the same, the ranking of their life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover is also very similar to that of their total life cycle carbon emission. The gap of carbon emission between the natural gas heavy-duty tractors and the battery electric heavy-duty tractors is further widened with the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of battery electric vehicle reduced by 19% compared with natural gas vehicles, which is mainly because the battery pack of battery electric vehicle occupies a part of the vehicle load capacity, and when the total life cycle carbon emission is converted into the carbon emission per unit turnover, the load factor will be reflected. Compared with diesel vehicles, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of natural gas vehicles decreased by 24%, while that of battery electric vehicles decreased by only 6%. The life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors under different hydrogen production processes are shown in Fig. 3.56. As mentioned above, at present, fuel cell electric vehicles have no advantage in life cycle carbon emission reduction, mainly because in China, the hydrogen production process from fossil fuels is dominated, but the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks under the hydrogen production scenarios including chlor-alkali hydrogen production and hydrogen production by water electrolysis from renewable energy is lower than that of diesel vehicles.

Fig. 3.54 Total life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

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Fig. 3.55 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of heavy-duty tractors

Fig. 3.56 Life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors under different hydrogen production processes

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Fig. 3.57 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors

Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types. The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.57. Like other heavy-duty vehicles, the raw material acquisition stage of heavy-duty tractors contributes most to the vehicle cycle carbon emissions with a proportion of more than 50% by average. For new energy vehicles, the carbon emission at this stage even accounts for more than 70% of the vehicle cycle carbon emission. Tyre replacement is the second largest emission source of vehicle cycle carbon emission for vehicles of all fuel types, with a proportion of 20–30%. The carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors at the raw material acquisition stage is shown in Fig. 3.58. Among the vehicles of all fuel types, the carbon emission structures of vehicles powered by fossil fuels at the raw material acquisition stage are relatively similar, with more than 80% of the carbon emissions from the acquisition and processing of part materials. While for new energy vehicles including battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles, the battery and fuel cell system are the second largest emission sources following part materials. Specifically, the battery accounts for more than 30% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of battery electric vehicles, while the fuel cell system accounts for more than 25% of the carbon emissions at the raw material acquisition stage of fuel cell electric vehicles. Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types. The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types is shown in Fig. 3.59. Like other heavy-duty vehicles, the carbon emission in the fuel use process dominates the fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors powered by fossil fuels with a proportion of more than 80%; the battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles produces zero carbon emission in the fuel use process, and 100% of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the upstream links of the fuel.

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Fig. 3.58 Carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors at raw material acquisition stage

Fig. 3.59 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of heavy-duty tractors

3.2.2.4

Conclusion for Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Heavy-Duty Trucks

Unlike passenger vehicles, the electrification path of heavy-duty commercial vehicles should be considered in combination with specific application scenarios. For different application scenarios, different types of commercial vehicles are deployed. For heavy-duty single-unit trucks, their electrification path is similar to that of light-duty trucks. For heavy-duty dump trucks and heavy-duty tractors, at present, the most advantageous fuel type for emission reduction is natural gas; and

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in the future with the improvement of clean electricity, the emission reduction advantages of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles will be more and more prominent. Though the fuel cycle takes the dominant position in the life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty trucks, automobile enterprises are still required to pay certain attention to the vehicle cycle carbon emission reduction. The fuel cycle accounts for 95% of the life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty trucks, but the absolute value of vehicle cycle carbon emissions cannot be underestimated. Taking the battery electric heavy-duty tractor as an example, its vehicle cycle carbon emission is as high as 98 tCO2 e. The emission reduction measures for the vehicle cycle will also bring substantial emission reduction benefits to the enterprises.

3.2.3 Research Results of Single-Vehicle Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Buses Buses of five fuel types are selected for the carbon emission study, namely diesel bus, natural gas bus, diesel/electric plug-in hybrid electric bus, battery electric bus and fuel cell electric bus, and for the plug-in hybrid electric bus, if the bus is only powered by the diesel with plug-in charging not activated, the carbon emission is converted from the fuel consumption. The bus models of all fuel types selected for study in this section are all representative models of those fuel types with higher sales in China in 2020. The basic parameters and information of the selected bus models are shown in Table 3.6.

3.2.3.1

Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions for Buses of Different Fuel Types

(1) Research results of life cycle carbon emissions for buses of different fuel types The total life cycle carbon emissions of representative bus of each fuel type are shown in Fig. 3.60. The total life cycle carbon emissions of buses are directly related to the curb weight and energy consumption per 100 km, and since the parameters of the Table 3.6 Basic parameters and information of buses of different fuel types selected for the study Fuel type

Diesel

Natural gas Plug-in hybrid Battery

Fuel cell

Curb weight, kg

11,300

9800

12,300

12,650

9000

Number of seats

44

33

50

44

28

Life cycle mileage, km

400,000 400,000

400,000

400,000 400,000

Energy consumption per 100 km 30

48

16

67

8

Unit of energy consumption

m3

L

KWh

Kg

L

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selected buses are different, the comparison results are quite different. The ranking of absolute value of total life cycle carbon emissions of selected buses from high to low is as follows: fuel cell electric bus > natural gas bus > diesel bus > plug-in hybrid electric bus > battery electric bus. As shown, the carbon emission of fuel cell electric bus is the highest, which is because, though the fuel cell electric bus produces zero carbon emission in the hydrogen use process, the hydrogen production from fossil fuel dominates the hydrogen production industry in China, and will cause high carbon emission. Specifically, for each 400,000 km of traveling, the carbon emission from hydrogen production is far greater than that from oil, gas and electric energy. The life cycle carbon emissions of diesel buses and natural gas buses differ little from each other; The plug-in hybrid electric bus has a lower fuel consumption and thus a lower life cycle carbon emission than the diesel bus; The life cycle carbon emission of the battery electric buses is the lowest. For buses of each fuel type, the fuel cycle is the main contributor of their life cycle carbon emissions, and the contribution of vehicle cycle is very small. As for the vehicle cycle carbon emission, the battery electric bus ranks first due to the use of heavy batteries; the vehicle cycle carbon emission of fuel cell electric bus ranks second due to the use of hydrogen storage tanks as well as batteries; however for buses with internal combustion engine system (diesel and natural gas), the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emission in life cycle carbon emission is not very high thanks to a simple structure. The total life cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types are converted according to the number of seats under half load. The research results are shown in Fig. 3.61. The ranking of carbon emission per unit turnover of selected buses from

Fig. 3.60 Total life cycle carbon emissions of buses

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high to low is as follows: fuel cell electric bus > natural gas bus > diesel bus > battery electric bus > plug-in hybrid electric bus, which is directly related to the total life cycle carbon emissions and the number of seats. Among the selected models, the fuel cell electric bus has a high total carbon emission and a small number of seats, so their carbon emission per passenger capacity is far higher than that of buses of other fuel types. The carbon emission per unit turnover of natural gas buses ranks second due to the same reasons as the fuel cell electric buses. The plug-in hybrid electric bus has a lower carbon emission per unit turnover than the battery electric bus, mainly because the passenger vehiclerying capacity of plug-in hybrid electric bus is greater than that of battery electric bus. (1) Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types The vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types is shown in Figs. 3.62 and 3.63. Herein, the vehicle cycle consists of raw material acquisition, vehicle production, refrigerant escape, fluid replacement, tyre replacement and leadacid battery replacement. For buses of each fuel type, more than 70% of the vehicle cycle carbon emissions come from raw material acquisition. The raw material acquisition stage consists of part material, tyre, fluid, lead-acid battery, traction battery and fuel cell. For battery electric buses, more than 40% of the carbon emissions at raw material acquisition stage come from the batteries. For fuel cell electric buses, more than 25% of carbon emissions at raw material acquisition stage come from fuel cell systems (including electric stacks, hydrogen storage tanks and other components), and 7.4% from batteries.

Fig. 3.61 Life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of buses

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Fig. 3.62 Vehicle cycle carbon emission structure of buses

Fig. 3.63 Carbon emission structure of buses at raw material acquisition stage

(2) Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types The fuel cycle carbon emission structure of buses of different fuel types are shown in Fig. 3.64. For battery electric buses and fuel cell electric buses, all of their fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the fuel production process; For diesel buses and plug-in hybrid electric buses, 83% of the fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the fuel use process, and 17% from the fuel production process; For natural gas buses, 3.1% of their fuel cycle carbon emissions come from the fuel use process, and 96.7% from the fuel production process.

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Fig. 3.64 Fuel cycle carbon emission structure of buses

3.2.3.2

Conclusion for Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Buses

1. Electrification is an important technical path for carbon emission reduction of buses. The battery electric buses produce zero carbon emissions in the use process, but their vehicle cycle carbon emissions are higher than the buses of other fuel types, which is mainly because the batteries used in the commercial vehicles bring about high carbon emissions, and are larger so that the carrying capacity is reduced and its advantage in carbon emission per unit turnover is not as prominent as expected. 2. The plug-in hybrid electric bus boasts a good life cycle carbon emission performance due to its low fuel consumption and strong carrying capacity. At present when the nickel, cobalt and lithium resources are in shortage and charging piles are insufficient, the plug-in hybrid electric bus, with lower carbon emission and resource consumption, is an ideal transitional technical means; 3. The high life cycle carbon emission of fuel cell electric buses is mainly due to the high proportion of hydrogen production from fossil fuels in China’s hydrogen energy structure as well as the use of important carbon emission sources like fuel cell systems and batteries. Adopting relevant policies to encourage the production and use of green hydrogen and estimating the substitutions for high-carbon materials in the fuel cell system are important means to make fuel cell electric buses create carbon emission reduction benefits. 4. Passenger capacity is an important factor affecting the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of buses. Optimizing the operation mode and improving the passenger capacity of buses are important means to reduce their life cycle carbon emissions per unit turnover.

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3.3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Enterprises 3.3.1 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises The subsection, according to the accounting method described in 2.3, accounts for the life cycle carbon emissions of 115 passenger vehicle enterprises, and finds that the total life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles sold in 2021 is 750 million tCO2 e, of which 99.4% is contributed by enterprises with an annual sales volume of more than 10,000 vehicles. Due to the joint influence of single-vehicle life cycle carbon emissions and sales volume, the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles sold in 2021 are significantly different between passenger vehicle enterprises. Specifically. the total carbon emission of traditional automobile enterprises which are dominated by traditional energy models and have a large sales volume are significantly higher than those of new forces which are dominated by new energy models and whose sales volume is now in the climbing period. For example, FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. has the highest total carbon emission due to its large sales volume, and among the enterprises with similar sales volume, the enterprises with lower average single-vehicle life cycle carbon emission have more advantages in the total life cycle carbon emission. As shown in Fig. 3.65, the Top 10 passenger vehicle enterprises with the highest total life cycle carbon emissions in 2021 are FAW Volkswagen Co., Ltd. (68.041 million tCO2 e), SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. (52.039 million tCO2 e), Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (51.071 million tCO2 e), SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd. (50.422 million tCO2 e), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited. (46.77 million tCO2 e), Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company (39.501 million tCO2 e), Great Wall Motor Company Limited (39.223 million tCO2 e), SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd. (34.599 million tCO2 e), GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd. (29.428 million tCO2 e) and Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd. (29.013 million tCO2 e), accounted for 58.6% of the total life carbon emissions of passenger vehicles sold in 2021. There are also differences in the average single-vehicle life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale between enterprises, which are ranging from 91.9 to 476.9 g CO2 e/km with an arithmetic average of 244.5 g CO2 e/km. Among the enterprises, the average carbon emissions of enterprises dominated by new energy vehicles are the lowest, while the carbon emissions of enterprises dominated by conventional energy vehicles are higher. In order to reflect the representativeness, the Top 10 passenger vehicle enterprises with annual sales of more than 100,000 vehicles and with the lowest average carbon emission are selected for this study, which are, as shown in Fig. 3.66, Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (172.2 g CO2 e/km), SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd. (201.2 g CO2 e/km), BYD Auto Co., Ltd. (208.1 g CO2 e/km), Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd. (232.1 g CO2 e/km), FAW

3.3 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Enterprises

99

Fig. 3.65 Top 10 enterprises in total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale in 2021

TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd. (236.0 g CO2 e/km), Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company (237.7 g CO2 e/km), Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd. (238.4 g CO2 e/km), SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Co., Ltd. (238.7 g CO2 e/km), SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd. (239.2 g CO2 e/km) and GAC TOYOTA Motor Co., Ltd. (239.5 g CO2 e/km). Among them, the single-vehicle life cycle carbon emission of Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is significantly lower than that of other enterprises. There are also differences in the average carbon emissions between different models. According to the make and model characteristics, passenger vehicles sold in 2021 can be divided into 10 brands, including Chinese independent brand, Japanese brand, German brand, American brand, Korean brand, JV brand, Swedish brand, European-Czech brand, French brand and English brand (listed as per the sales volume from high to low). JV independent brands mainly refer to the brands and models which are developed based on the purchased or introduced technology platforms of foreign products and whose intellectual property rights belong to the domestic joint ventures, such as Everus of GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd., Baojun of SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd., Venucia of Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company and Sehol of Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited. Swedish brand refers to the Volvo brand of Volvo Cars (Asia Pacific) Investment Holdings Co., Ltd.; European-Czech brand refers to the Skoda brand of SAIC

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Fig. 3.66 Top 10 enterprises in average life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale in 2021 (enterprises with sales of more than 100,000 vehicles)

Volkswagen; English brand refers to the JLR brand of Chery Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Co., Ltd. The carbon emission per unit mileage of each brand is shown in Fig. 3.67, and is ranging from 231.5CO2 e/km to 319.5 CO2 e/km. As shown, the carbon emission per unit mileage of JV independent brands is the lowest, and that of the English brand is the highest; the carbon emission per unit mileage of Korean and EuropeanCzech brands is relatively low, because most of their models on sale are passenger vehicles of Level A0 and Level A with low carbon emission; the carbon emission per unit mileage of Chinese independent brand is also relatively low, mainly because the sales volume of battery electric passenger vehicles with low carbon emissions is high; the carbon emission per unit mileage of Swedish and British brands is relatively high, because most of their models on sale are passenger vehicles of Level B and Level C with high curb weight, high fuel consumption and high carbon emission, and the sales volume of battery electric passenger vehicles with low carbon emission is small.

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Fig. 3.67 Average life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles on sale of all brands in 2021

3.4 Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Fleets 3.4.1 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Fleet 3.4.1.1

Analysis on Passenger Vehicle Population Structure in China Over the Years

For the purpose of this study, the passenger vehicle is classified into sedan, sport utility vehicle (SUV), multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) and crossover passenger vehicle. Based on the available data,6 the passenger vehicle population in China from 2012 to 2021 is obtained, as shown in Fig. 3.68. In terms of vehicle type, passenger vehicles in China are mainly sedans, but the proportion of SUVs has increased rapidly: In 2021, the proportion of sedans in China’s passenger vehicle population was decreased 6

The data of vehicle population is sourced from the China’s database of compulsory insurance for vehicle traffic accident liability, which collects the relevant information of passenger cars and commercial vehicles including population, vehicle type, fuel type, vehicle age, registration area, energy consumption level and curb weight. For the convenience of calculation, the vehicle population are screened based on key information such as fuel type, vehicle type and vehicle age.

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by about 1.1% from the 2020 level to about 59.0%, but the proportion of SUVs reached 29.86%, which is 2.02% higher than that in 2020, and more than 3.7 times that is 2012; the proportion of MPVs and crossover passenger vehicles changed little, i.e. from 7.2% and 4.9% in 2020 to 7.0% and 4.1% in 2021 respectively. In terms of fuel type, fuel passenger vehicles still take a dominant position in China’s passenger vehicle pollution, but the number of new energy passenger vehicles is growing rapidly: In 2021, the passenger vehicle population in China increased to 230 million, which is more than 3 times that in 2012, and is expected to increase further with a strong growth momentum. In the passenger vehicle population in 2021, the gasoline passenger vehicle was still the main force with a proportion of about 95.9%, which, however, decreases by 1.2% compared with 2020; the proportion of diesel passenger vehicles was relatively small, and remained at about 0.2%; the proportion of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles increased slightly from about 0.5% in 2020 to about 0.7%; the population of new energy passenger vehicles, thanks to the rapid development of battery electric passenger vehicles, increased rapidly by about 71.9% to about 6.455 million compared with 2020. In the population of new energy passenger vehicles, the battery electric passenger vehicle takes a large share, which was about 79.2% in 2021, and 75.8% higher than that in 2020; the proportion of plugin hybrid electric passenger vehicles was about 20.8%, with the population increased by about 58.7% over 2020. The proportion of passenger vehicles of other fuel types including natural gas, LPG and methanol in the passenger vehicle population changed little and remained at about 0.4%. Talking from regions, Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, Hebei and Sichuan all have a passenger vehicle population of more than 10 million, as shown in Fig. 3.69. In 2021, Guangdong ranked first in China with a passenger vehicle population up to 22.088 million, followed by Shandong with a passenger vehicle population of 21.011 million, and then by Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, Hebei and Sichuan with a passenger vehicle population of 17.174 million, 15.201 million, 15.082 million, 14.694 million and 11.097 million respectively; the passenger vehicle population in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing (the four municipalities directly under the central government) were 5.237 million, 3.332 million, 4.811 million and 4.316 million respectively. Only in Shanghai, the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in all passenger vehicles exceeded 10% and reached about 12.5%, and other provinces with a relative high proportion of new energy passenger vehicles are Beijing, Hainan, Tianjin, Guangdong and Zhejiang, which are 8.7%, 8.0%, 6.6%, 4.5% and 4.0% respectively. In terms of the total population of new energy passenger vehicles, that in eastern and southern regions is higher. Specifically in 2021, Guangdong ranked first with a population of new energy passenger vehicles up to 989,000 (about 70.3% are battery electric passenger vehicles), followed by Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong, Henan, Beijing and Jiangsu with a population of new energy passenger vehicles of 604,000, 601,000, 514,000, 488,000, 443,000 and 402,000 respectively, of which Shanghai boasts the highest proportion of plugin hybrid electric passenger vehicles (i.e. 51.7%), and Beijing boasts the highest proportion of battery electric passenger vehicles (i.e. 99.8%).

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Fig. 3.68 Passenger vehicle population in China from 2012 to 2021

At present, the per capita passenger vehicle population in China is low. As shown in Fig. 3.70, the passenger vehicle population per thousand people in China was about 164 in 2021, which is far lower than that in developed countries such as European countries, the United States and Japan, but also reflects that China still embraces a large room for the growth of passenger vehicle population. At present, the Top 3 regions in terms of passenger vehicle population per thousand people in China are Tianjin, Beijing and Zhejiang with a value of 240, 239 and 233 respectively. In addition, the passenger vehicle population per thousand people in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shanghai, Shaanxi, Guangdong, Liaoning and Jilin is higher than the national average.

3.4.1.2

Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Passenger Vehicle Fleet

In 2021, the total life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicle fleets in China reached 700 million tCO2 e, with the ratio of fuel cycle carbon emission to vehicle cycle carbon emission being about 3:1, as shown in Fig. 3.71. Compared with 2020, the total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleets in China increased

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Fig. 3.69 Passenger vehicle population in various regions of China in 2021

by about 20 million tCO2 e, with fuel cycle carbon emission and vehicle cycle carbon emission increased by about 10 million tCO2 e respectively; the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emission in the total life cycle carbon emission increased, which is mainly due to the large increase in passenger vehicle production, especially the production of new energy passenger vehicles. From the perspective of fuel type, in the total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in 2021, the contributions of gasoline passenger vehicles was about 96%, that of battery electric passenger vehicles was 2%, that of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles was about 1% respectively, and that of diesel passenger vehicles and passenger vehicles of other fuel types was less than 1%. Such a layout is mainly due to a large proportion of gasoline passenger vehicles in the passenger vehicle population. In 2021, the fuel use process (PTW, Pump To Wheel) was the main contributor to the fuel cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in China. Specifically, in the fuel cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in 2021, the proportion of carbon emission from fuel production (WTP, Well To Pump) was about 17%, and the proportion of carbon emission from fuel use was about 83%. The gasoline passenger vehicle is the main source of the fuel cycle carbon emission, and

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Fig. 3.70 Per capita passenger vehicle population in various regions of China in 2021

accounts for 97% of the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet; the NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicle, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicle and battery electric passenger vehicles in total only account for about 1% of the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleet. In 2021, the production of part materials accounted for a large proportion in the vehicle cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in China. As for the vehicle cycle carbon emission, the carbon emission in the maintenance stage is mainly caused by replacement of tyres, batteries and other components, refrigerant escape and other factors. It is calculated that in the vehicle cycle carbon emission, the carbon emission from production and processing of vehicle parts and materials accounts for 63%, the carbon emission from maintenance accounts for about 26%, and the carbon emission from vehicle production accounts for 6%. It is worth noting that the carbon emission from battery production accounts for about 6%, which is calculated only with the NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles considered, but is equivalent to that of carbon emission produced in production links of all passenger vehicles in that year.

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Fig. 3.71 Composition of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleets in 20217

The life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in China shows a regional distribution characteristic of high in the East and low in the west. This study, according to the passenger vehicle population, vehicle fuel type, vehicle energy consumption level, regional power factor8 and other different characteristics among regions, calculates China’s regional distribution of life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in 2021. For life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles in China in 2021, high carbon emission of passenger vehicles mainly occurs in the eastern coastal areas, especially the economically developed regions such as Beijing Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, while the total carbon emission in the western and northeast regions is low. Regions with high passenger vehicle population face greater pressure on carbon emission reduction. As shown in Fig. 3.72, Guangdong, as the region with the highest passenger vehicle population in China, produces the most carbon emissions. In 2021, the total life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicle fleets in Guangdong reached about 70 million tCO2 e, followed by Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei and Sichuan with a total life cycle carbon emission of 60 million 7

Note: On the left are the life cycle stages and their contribution to the total carbon emission, and on the right are the passenger cars of different fuel types and the proportion of their life cycle carbon emission in the total carbon emission. 8 Refer to Annex VI for electric power structure of each region.

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tCO2 e, 53 million tCO2 e, 48 million tCO2 e, 46 million tCO2 e, 41 million tCO2 e and 34 million tCO2 e respectively. The total carbon emission of passenger vehicles in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing (namely the four municipalities directly under the central government) are 16 million tCO2 e, 11 million tCO2 e, 18 million tCO2 e and 14 million tCO2 e respectively. These data shows that at present, the carbon emission of passenger vehicles in various regions of China is basically proportional to the passenger vehicle population of the corresponding region, which is mainly because the passenger vehicle population in regions is still dominated by conventional fuel vehicles, and there is little difference in vehicle energy consumption between different regions. If the population of new energy passenger vehicles continues to increase, the advantages of regional electric power structure will be somehow reflected in the total carbon emission of passenger vehicles. As for the per capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles in various regions of China, there are great difference between regions. As shown in Fig. 3.73, the regions with high per capita life cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles are

Fig. 3.72 Total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in various regions of China in 2021

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mainly the regions with high per capita passenger vehicle usage. Among them, the per capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles in Tianjin, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Hebei and Shanxi are above the national average. Specifically, the per capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles in Tianjin, Beijing, Zhejiang and Shanghai are 0.77 tCO2 e, 0.75 tCO2 e, 0.74 tCO2 e and 0.72 tCO2 e respectively, which are twice that in Guangxi, Qinghai and Tibet. The analysis above shows that the total life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in China are gradually rising and are mainly contributed by the fuel cycle, and that the carbon emission in economically developed regions is higher. The growing life cycle carbon emission is mainly resulted from the continued increase of passenger vehicle population, and the high proportion of fuel cycle carbon emission in life cycle carbon emission is mainly caused by the unchanged high proportion of conventional fuel passenger vehicles in the passenger vehicle population. Therefore, vigorously promoting the development of new energy passenger vehicles without prejudice the development of passenger vehicle industry is an effective way to achieve carbon emission reduction of passenger vehicles.

Fig. 3.73 China’s regional distribution of per capita carbon emission of passenger vehicles in 2021

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3.4.2 Research on Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Commercial Vehicle Fleet 3.4.2.1

Analysis on Commercial Vehicle Population Structure in China Over the Years

The commercial vehicle population in China is increasing, but in 2021, its increase stagnated compared with 2020. The commercial vehicles covered in this study mainly include passenger transportation vehicles such as coaches and buses, and freight vehicles such as light-duty trucks, single-unit trucks, dump trucks, tractors (with the data referenced from the same source as passenger vehicles), and do not include special vehicles such as cleaning vehicles, fire engines and escort vehicles due to lack of basic data. As shown in Fig. 3.74, the commercial vehicle population in China was about 30 million in 2021, which is almost the same as that in 2020 due to the decrease of commercial vehicle sales in 2021. The commercial vehicle population is dominated by medium/heavy-duty trucks (in 2020, the population of medium/heavyduty trucks was 15.59 million), followed by light-duty trucks with a population of 11.77 million. With the rapid development of public transport means such as railways, ships and subways in China, the population of intercity coaches and city buses decreased somehow, which were 1.760 million and 0.85 million respectively in 2021. From the perspective of fuel type, the new energy is less applied to commercial vehicles except buses. In 2021, China’s heavy-duty trucks are mainly diesel heavyduty trucks with a proportion of more than 98%, and only a small part of them are natural gas heavy-duty trucks, i.e. 1%; the light-duty trucks are mainly gasoline lightduty trucks with a proportion of 73%, followed by diesel light-duty trucks with a proportion of about 23%; the intercity coaches are mainly diesel coaches and gasoline coaches with a proportion of 65% and 30% respectively. The bus electrification has proceeded at a fast speed, and in 2021, the proportion of battery electric buses in China reached 40%, and the proportions of natural gas buses and NOVC hybrid electric bus increased to 10% and 8% respectively. The truck population in the eastern coastal areas of China is higher. As shown in Fig. 3.75, the truck population in Shandong, Guangdong and Hebei is high up to 2 million, and that in Henan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and Sichuan also exceeds 1 million, which demonstrates that the truck population is closely related to economic activities. From the perspective of fuel type, the diesel truck takes a large share in all regions with an average of about 65%, and especially in Shanghai, the proportion of diesel trucks in the total truck population is up to 88%. At present, the promotion of new energy trucks is generally slow in various regions. In 2021, the proportion of battery electric trucks was highest in Beijing, i.e. 3.8%. The population of buses and coaches is relatively high in densely populated areas. As shown in Fig. 3.76, in 2021, the population of buses and buses in Guangdong and Jiangsu exceeded 0.2 million, and that in Shandong, Zhejiang, Beijing, Liaoning, Henan, Hubei and Hunan also exceeded 0.1 million. Compared with trucks, the proportion of new energy coaches and trucks in all regions is generally high with

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Fig. 3.74 Commercial vehicle population in China from 2012 to 2021

an average of 16.8%. In all regions, the proportion of electric coaches and buses is highest in Guangdong (i.e. 31%), and lowest in Tibet (i.e. only 3.9%).

3.4.2.2

Research Results of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Commercial Vehicle Fleet

In 2021, the life cycle carbon emission of commercial vehicle fleets in China decreased due to a slower growing commercial vehicle population. As shown in Fig. 3.77, in 2021, the life cycle carbon emission of commercial vehicle fleets in China was 500 million tCO2 e, 81% of which are contributed by fuel cycle, and another 19% by vehicle cycle. Due to the decrease of commercial vehicle sales, the growth of commercial vehicle population slowed down, and the total life cycle carbon emission decreased by 30 million tCO2 e compared with 2020, of which the fuel cycle carbon emission decreased by 10 million tCO2 e and the vehicle cycle carbon emission decreased by 20 million tCO2 e. From the perspective of carbon emission structure, the carbon emission of commercial vehicles in China is mainly contributed by diesel vehicles, which account for 86% of the total carbon emission of commercial vehicles. The contributions of gasoline commercial vehicles and natural

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Fig. 3.75 Truck population in various regions of China in 2021

gas commercial vehicles are relatively low, with a proportion of about 7% and 5% respectively, and the proportion of carbon emission of battery electric vehicles is only about 2%. The carbon emission of commercial vehicles are mainly from the direct fuel combustion. Specifically at present, 81% of the carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet come from the fuel cycle, and in the fuel cycle, more than 80% of the carbon emissions come from the direct fuel combustion, and only 18% come from the upstream fuel production. The total vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are mainly generated by the acquisition, processing and production of auto materials, with a proportion of about 60%. Maintenance, including fluid replacement, tyre replacement and other operations, is the second largest emission source with a proportion of about 38%. At present, the proportion of new energy commercial vehicles in China is still relatively small, and the carbon emission from battery production accounts for only about 1%, which, however, is equivalent to the total carbon emission from vehicle production.

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Fig. 3.76 Population of coaches and buses in various regions of China in 2021

As for the regional distribution, the carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are mainly concentrated in economically active areas. China’s regional distribution of total carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in 2021 is similar to that of passenger vehicles, that is, the carbon emissions mainly occur in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing region and other regions are densely populated, economically developed and commercially active, mainly because these regions have high demand for passenger transport and freight transport. Generally, the total life cycle carbon emission of commercial vehicles is higher in eastern China. For the convenience of calculation, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are attributed to the regions where the commercial vehicles are used. As shown in Fig.3.78, in 2021, Shandong ranked first with a total carbon emission high up to 38 million tCO2 e, and the total carbon emissions in Hebei, Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Sichuan are also high, which are

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Fig. 3.77 Composition of life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleets in 20219

34 million tCO2 e, 32 million tCO2 e, 25 million tCO2 e, 19 million tCO2 e, 19 million tCO2 e, 19 million tCO2 e and 18 million tCO2 e respectively. Commercial vehicles, though small in population, produce the same amount of total carbon emissions as passenger vehicles, with the fuel cycle carbon emission equivalent to that of passenger vehicles, but the single-vehicle carbon emission far higher than that of passenger vehicles. The commercial vehicles are diversified in vehicle type, and their carbon emissions vary greatly from vehicle type to vehicle type. The carbon emission from passenger transport vehicles is low, mainly because the passenger transport vehicle has a small population, and most of them are NEVs. In most regions, the proportion of new energy vehicles in new sales is nearly 50%. The carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleets mainly come from the fuel cycle of medium/heavy-duty trucks, mainly because these trucks are less applied with new energy and feature heavy load, high fuel consumption and long range, while fuel use is a main source of carbon emission.

9

Note: On the left are the life cycle stages and their contribution to the total carbon emission, and on the right are the commercial vehicles of different fuel types and the proportion of their life cycle carbon emission in the total carbon emission.

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Fig. 3.78 Total carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in various regions of China in 2021

Chapter 4

Analysis of Low-Carbon Transformation Pathways of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality

4.1 Overall Transformation Pathway Framework 4.1.1 Transformation Pathways Automobile, transportation and energy constitute a carbon chain in which they are mutually supported and constrained. Traffic demand will affect the vehicle population and energy consumption in the transport sector and thereafter affect the carbon emissions, while the structure and level of the final energy consumption of vehicles will in turn affect the carbon emissions in the energy and transport sectors. Green energy application determines the carbon emissions of vehicle manufacturing at the upstream and also the carbon emissions of the road transport sector. The realization of carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry is not possible with a single emission reduction path only, and we need to fully explore the emission reduction potential and coupling effects of various paths. Electrification has always been referred to in the carbon neutrality actions of all major automobile enterprises. However, since most of electric energy used in China is from thermal power generation, the focus of carbon emission of new energy vehicles has shifted to battery production and electricity supply. Therefore, building an energy supply network based on clean electricity is of great significance to the achievement of carbon neutrality goal in the automotive industry as it realize zero carbon emission from the source. What we should do is to realize low-carbon vehicle manufacturing based on a clean power grid. In the energy consumption structure of vehicle manufacturing, the electric energy accounts for more than 60%, as battery manufacturing processes such as baking, drying, capacity splitting and forming are highly electricity consuming. Therefore, the deployment of a clean power grid is critical to the carbon reduction in the manufacturing stage.

© China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_4

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In the automobile manufacturing stage, the material structure tends to change from a steel-based simple structure to a comprehensive structure integrated with steel, aluminum, all-aluminum body, plastic composites and magnesium alloys. Automobile manufacturing process is so complex that coordination between low-carbon production and resource allocation is very difficult. Therefore, application of new information technologies such as big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence will empower the production digital transformation including carbon data quantification, carbon data optimization and intelligent control, and is an essential path for the low-carbon development of the automotive industry. In terms of transportation, we should draw experience from well-performing countries in the world, and focus on the building of intelligent transportation to optimize travel space and the allocation of right of way. In addition, the sharing economy concept, among all the drivers of carbon emission reduction, will help improve the efficiency of the social economy, and through the change of the organization of economic activities, it enables greater support from social groups than a single family and thus shows greater potential for carbon emission reduction. Therefore, promoting the service experience of whole green shared mobility chain is also a main way to reduce the carbon emission in transport sector. Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology allows for near zero carbon emissions in power industry, steel industry and other industries to effectively reduce the life cycle GHG emissions of vehicles related to power and steel, and it can offset some of the CO2 of which emission is difficult to be reduced in the automotive industry, and ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry. To sum up, this chapter, with carbon neutrality of the automotive industry as focus, puts forward from different perspectives ten transition paths, including clean electricity; vehicle electrification; fuel decarbonization; low-carbon material; production digitalization; transportation intelligence; shared mobility; resource recycling; carbon capture, utilization and storage; and product ecologicalization (as shown in Fig. 4.1), sets up three scenarios namely reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario, and then fully discusses the carbon emission reduction potential of different paths under different scenarios.

Fig. 4.1 Ten transformation paths for carbon neutrality of the automotive industry

4.1 Overall Transformation Pathway Framework

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4.1.2 Scenario Setting In order to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effects of different paths on passenger vehicle fleets, this study, based on a series of authoritative reports, industry information, academic research and internal analysis, sets up three low-carbon emission reduction scenarios (namely, reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario) and their respective carbon emission reduction parameters, and then through the calculation and analysis based on the passenger vehicle fleet life cycle carbon emission model, assesses the single-vehicle life cycle carbon emission intensity of passenger vehicles, the total life cycle carbon emission of the passenger vehicle fleet, and the change of the ratio between the fuel cycle carbon emission and life cycle emission under different scenarios. For each scenarios, the eight emission reduction measures including clean electricity, vehicle electrification, alternative fuel, material efficiency, vehicle production energy efficiency, battery carbon emission, vehicle energy consumption efficiency and consumption mode are mainly considered in this study as affecting factors.

4.1.2.1

Reference Scenarios

The reference scenarios are set based on the current situation in China, in which the change trend of relevant parameters is close to the historical change trend, and the annual change rate of parameters is relatively moderate. In this scenario, the proportion of power generation by non-fossil energies will gradually increase, and is expected to reach about 45% in 2030 and 94% in 2060; the proportion of vehicle electrification will increase steadily, and the sale of conventional fuel vehicles is expected to be banned in 2060; the sales volume of FCEVs will gradually increase and then maintain at a certain proportion in the newly sold vehicles; the energy consumption structure of key materials will be gradually optimized; the production energy efficiency and energy consumption efficiency of vehicles will be gradually improved; the proportion of recycled materials will increase steadily year by year; and the annual mileage traveled by the vehicle will remain unchanged.

4.1.2.2

Low-Carbon Scenario

The low-carbon scenario is based on the reference scenarios, in which the annual change rate of various emission reduction parameters increases to a certain extent. In this scenario, the proportion of power generation by non-fossil energies will increase greatly year by year, and is expected to reach about 51% in 2030 and 96% in 2060; the proportion of vehicle electrification will increase rapidly, and the sale of conventional fuel vehicles is expected to be banned in 2050; the sales volume of FCEVs will gradually increase and then maintain at a certain proportion in the newly sold vehicles; the energy consumption structure of key materials will be quickly optimized; the

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production energy efficiency and energy consumption efficiency of vehicles will be improved greatly year by year; the proportion of recycled materials will increase quickly year by year; and the annual mileage traveled by the vehicle will drop slightly.

4.1.2.3

Enhanced Low-Carbon Scenario

The enhanced low-carbon scenario is the most aggressive scenario, in which the relevant emission reduction parameters are set at the maximum value, and the annual change rate of each parameter increases significantly. In this scenario, the proportion of power generation by non-fossil energies will increase fastest year by year, and is expected to reach about 52% in 2030 and 97% in 2060; the proportion of vehicle electrification will increase substantially, and the sale of conventional fuel vehicles is expected to be banned in 2035; the sales volume of FCEVs will gradually increase and then maintain at a certain proportion in the newly sold vehicles; the energy structure of key materials will be quickly optimized; the production energy efficiency of vehicles will be improved substantially year by year and the energy consumption efficiency of vehicles will be improved greatly year by year; the proportion of recycled materials will increase substantially year by year; and the annual mileage traveled by the vehicle will drop heavily.

4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality 4.2.1 Path 1: Clean Electricity Electric power is an important part for the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and the realization of energy low-carbon transformation. The time left for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals is short, and the task is arduous. Developed economies such as the European Union have realized carbon emission peak, and enjoy a transition period of 50–70 years from carbon peak to carbon neutrality. While for China, the CO2 emission is very high, and there are only 30 years left to move from carbon peak to carbon neutrality, making the task more formidable. With the deepening of low-carbon transformation, the power industry, which connects industries, buildings, transportation, communications and other sector, has become a supporting platform for the low-carbon transformation of economy and society. Meanwhile, the power system itself is also undergoing profound structural adjustment, i.e. from a “fire based” high-carbon development model to a low-carbon development model based on new energies such as wind energy and PV energy, and a new power system is gradually forming.

4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality

4.2.1.1

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Status-Quo of Power Industry Low-Carbon Transformation

(1) Electricity consumption, production and supply In 2020, the electricity consumption in China was increased by 3.2% over the previous year to 7521.4 billion kW (during the period of “13th Five-Year Plan”, the electricity consumption increased at an average annual growth rate of 5.7%); and the per capita electricity consumption was 5331 kWh/person, with an increase of 145 kWh/person over the previous year. By the end of 2020, the total installed power generation capacity in China was increased by 9.6% from the level of previous year to 2202.04 million kW, including 370.28 million kW from hydropower (31.49 million kW from pumped storage hydropower); 1246.24 million kW from thermal power (1079.12 million kW from coal power and 99.72 million kW from gas power); 49.89 million kW from nuclear power; 281.65 million kW from grid-connected wind power; and 253.56 million kW from grid-connected solar power. The installed power generation capacity in China from 1978 to 2020 is shown in Fig. 4.2. In 2020, the total power generation in China, with an increase of 4.1% over the previous year and a growth rate of 0.7% lower than that of the previous year, reached 7626.4 billion kWh, including 1355.3 billion kWh from hydropower (33.5 billion kWh from pumped storage hydropower); 5177 billion kWh from thermal power (4629.6 billion kWh from coal power and 252.5 billion kWh from natural gas power); 366.2 billion kWh from nuclear power; 466.5 billion kWh from grid-connected wind power; and 261.1 billion kWh from grid-connected solar power. The power generation in China from 1978 to 2020 is shown in Fig. 4.3 .

Fig. 4.2 Installed power generation capacity in China from 1978 to 2020. *Note Data and opinions are selected from China Electricity Council

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Fig. 4.3 Power generation in China from 1978 to 2020

(2) Green development of power industry. By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of non-fossil power generation in China was 985.66 million kW, accounting for 44.8% of the total installed power generation capacity with an increase of 18.2% over 2005; about 950 million kW of installed capacity of coal-fired power generation have reached ultra-low emission limits, accounting for 88% of the total in China. In 2020, the non-fossil power generation was 2585 billion kWh, accounting for 33.9% of the total in China with an increase of 14.7% over 2005. In 2019, the proportion of electric energy in China’s total final energy consumption was 26%, which is 17% higher than the world average. From 2016 to 2019, the cumulative newly-increased electricity consumption from electrical energy substitution, which is mainly concentrated in such important sectors as clean heating, industrial (agricultural) manufacturing, transportation, power supply and consumption, and household electrification, was about 598.9 billion kWh, contributing 38.5% to the growth of electricity consumption in the whole society. In 2020, the standard coal consumption for electricity supply of thermal power plants of 6000 kW and above nationwide was 304.9 g/kWh with a decrease of 1.5 g/kWh over the previous year; the service power consumption rate of power plants with a capacity of 6000 kW and above was 4.65% with a decrease of 0.02% from the previous year; the transmission loss rate was 5.60% with a decrease of 0.33% from the previous year; the emissions of dust, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide from power generation were about 155,000 t, 780,000 t and 874,000 t respectively, with a decrease of 15.1%, 12.7% and 6.3% respectively from the previous year; the emissions of dust, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides per unit thermal power generation were 0.032 g/kWh, 0.160 g/kWh and 0.179 g/kWh respectively, with a decrease of 0.006 g/kWh, 0.027 g/kWh and 0.016 g/kWh respectively from the previous year.

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Fig. 4.4 CO2 emission intensity of power generation from 2005 to 2020

In 2020, the CO2 emission per unit thermal power generation and CO2 emission per unit power generation in China were about 832 g/kWh and 565 g/kWh, decreasing by 20.6% and 34.1% respectively from 2005. Take 2005 as the base year, from 2006 to 2020, the power industry has achieved emission reduction of about 18.53 billion tons by developing non-fossil energies, reducing the standard coal consumption for power supply of thermal power plants of 6000 KW and above in China and reducing transmission loss rate, whose contributions to the CO2 emission reduction are 62%, 36%, and 2.6% respectively [1]. The CO2 emission intensity of power generation in 2005–2020 is shown in Fig. 4.4, and the CO2 emission reduction effect from different measures in 2006–2020 is shown in Fig. 4.5.

4.2.1.2

Research on Achievement of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality in Power Industry

The new dual-cycle development pattern drives the continuous growth of electricity consumption, the transformation from old kinetic energies to new kinetic energies and the decline of the growth rate of traditional electricity consumption industry, and the high-tech equipment manufacturing industry and modern service industry will become the main force driving the growth of electricity consumption. Newtype urbanization will promote the rigid growth of electricity demand. The energy transformation shows an obvious trend of electrification, and the potential of electric energy substitution is huge. It is estimated with such factors as the improvement of energy conservation awareness and energy efficiency considered that, the total electricity consumption in China will reach 9.5 trillion kWh, 11.3 trillion kWh and

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Fig. 4.5 CO2 emission reduction measures from 2006 to 2020

12.6 trillion kWh in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively, with the average annual growth rate during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, “15th Five-Year Plan” period and “16th Five-Year Plan” period being 4.8%, 3.6% and 2.2% respectively. It is also estimated that the maximum electricity load in China will reach 1.63 billion kW, 2.01 billion kW and 2.26 billion kW in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively, with the average annual growth rate during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, “15th FiveYear Plan” period and “16th Five-Year Plan” period being 5.1%, 4.3% and 2.4% respectively. In a word, China will face a long-term climbing in electricity demand. During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, 6 nuclear power generation units and 70 million kW of installed new energy power generation capacity are expected to be increased by average every year, and it is expected that by 2025, the installed capacity of hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, wind power generation and solar power generation will reach 435 million kW (including 65 million kW of pumped storage power), 70 million kW, 400 million kW and 500 million kW respectively. Since new energy only has an electric power balance capacity of 10– 15%, 190 million kW of installed capacity of coal-fired power generation is required to be increased during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period to ensure the security of power supply and meet the requirements of real-time electric power balance. During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, 8–10 nuclear power generation units and 120 million kW of installed new energy power generation capacity are expected to be increased by average every year, and it is expected that the installed capacity of coal-fired power generation will peak around 2030 and the carbon emission of the power industry will peak in 2028. During the “16th Five-Year Plan” period, electric

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vehicles is expected to be widely participated in power system regulation, further supporting the development of new energy on a larger scale; the installed new energy power generation capacity is expected to increase by 200 million kW every year, and the development pace of nuclear power is expected to remain unchanged; the low-carbon contribution rates of power generation from clean energies such as new energy, nuclear energy and hydro-energy will reach 58%, 20% and 22% respectively, and the carbon emission of the power industry will remain constant with a steady decline. The construction costs of nuclear power, new energy and energy storage facilities will, with the scale development and technology advancement, decline at a faster speed. However, as new energy is a power source with low energy density, more installed new energy power generation capacity in larger scale is required to meet the requirements of power supply, which therefore drives the substantial increase in the annual investment to power supply and energy storage facilities. Specifically, it is estimated that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the “15th Five-Year Plan” period and the “16th Five-Year Plan” period, the annual investments in power supply will reach 634 billion yuan, 736 billion yuan and 830 billion yuan respectively (which are only 358.8 billion yuan, 383.1 billion yuan and 352.4 billion yuan during the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, the “12th Five-Year Plan” period and the “13th Five-Year Plan” period respectively). Compared with 2020, the power generation cost will increase by 14.6% in 2025, 24.0% in 2030 and 46.6% in 2035. Significant technology innovations speed up the realization carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Major breakthroughs have been made in carbon–neutral gases and liquid fuels including hydrogen, ammonia and hydrocarbons for long-term electricity storage or power generation, enabling substitution of thermal power generation units in a wider scope, increasing the system moment of inertia, and ensuring the stable operation of the large power grid. Electric power production has entered a low-carbon or zero-carbon development stage with carbon capture and forestry carbon sink adopted as supplements to achieve carbon neutrality in the power industry. For this purpose, it is required to take new power system as the basic platform, and promote the innovation of green and low-carbon technologies such as ultra-high voltage transmission technology, smart grid technology, long-term new energy storage technology, hydrogen energy utilization technology and carbon capture technology.

4.2.1.3

Path Implementation

(1) Building a diversified energy supply system Adhere to both centralized and distributed deployment to comprehensively promote the large-scale development of wind and solar power generation; actively promote the construction of large hydropower bases in the basin of major rivers in the southwest; develop nuclear power actively, safely and orderly, and build natural gas peak shaving power stations according to local conditions; in accordance with the principle of “controlling the increment and optimizing the stock”, give full play to the role of coal

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power in supporting the power supply and expand coal power scale appropriately; develop biomass power generation according to local conditions and promote the distributed energy development. (2) Giving full play to the role of basic platform of power grid Optimize the construction of main grid structure of the power grid, build a number of new cross-region or cross-province power transmission channels, build an advanced intelligent distribution network, and improve the ability to optimize the allocation of resources; support some regions to take the lead in hitting the carbon peak. (3) Vigorously improving the level of electrification Deepen the electrification upgrading in the industrial sector, vigorously improve the level of electrification in the transport sector, actively promote the electrification in the construction sector, and accelerate the construction of rural electrification upgrade projects. (4) Promoting the efficient and cooperative utilization of source, grid and load Take multiple measures to improve the system regulation capacity and the response level of power demand side; promote the integration of source, network, load and storage and the complementary development of multiple energies, and speed up the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of power system. (5) Vigorously promoting technological innovation Promote the leapfrog development of new energy storage technologies such as pumped storage, hydrogen storage, battery energy storage, solid-state batteries, lithium sulfur batteries, and metal air batteries promote the wide application of low-carbon power generation technologies in the iterative upgrading of smart grid technology, and strengthen the innovation of forward-looking carbon abatement technology. (6) Strengthening electric power security awareness Strengthen the identification to risks brought by the randomness and intermittency of new energy power output to the power supply security, the risks brought by the access of power electronic equipment, and the risks caused by technological innovation; strengthen the construction of emergency support system to prevent major risks of power security. (7) Building a sound market mechanism Give full play to the role of carbon market in low-cost carbon reduction, accelerate the construction of a unified national power market, and continue to deepen the construction of the power market; promote the cooperative development of the national carbon market and power market.

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4.2.2 Path 2: Vehicle Electrification 4.2.2.1

Development of NEV Industry in the World

Carbon emissions from transportation account for about 1/4 of the global energy related carbon emissions [2], and thus decarbonization in the transport sector is a key for the world to achieve sustainable development and cope with climate change. For this purpose, the transformation from ICE vehicle to electric vehicle is one of the most obvious and direct ways of energy transformation of the transport sector. On the COP26, six multinational automobile enterprises, which are BYD, Ford, GM, JLR, Mercedes Benz and Volvo, signed a statement on zero-emission cars and trucks and promised to achieve 100% zero-emission vehicle sales in the leading markets by 2035, and worldwide by 2040, which is another major movement following the “global vehicle electrification initiative” in 2020 (the cumulative sales of electric passenger vehicles exceeded 10 million, and the proportion of electric vehicles in newly sold passenger vehicles made a new history record and reached 4.6% [3]). As a response to the world’s mission and goal for climate change addressing and sustainable development, many countries have actively adopted industrial policies and regulations regarding carbon neutrality, improved the electric vehicle industry chain, and accelerated the popularization of electric vehicles to promote low-carbon and green mobility. In July 2021, the European Commission released the core policy of the European Green Deal - “Fit for 55”, revised the CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, and put forward 12 policies covering energy, industry, transportation and building heating, striving to achieve the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55% from the 1990 level by the end of 2030. The latest proposal put forwards a requirement to reduce the carbon emission of new passenger vehicles and trucks by 55% from the 2021 level by 2030 and realize zero net emissions by 2035, and also requires governments to strengthen the construction of vehicle charging infrastructures, as shown in Fig. 4.6 . In August 2021, the Biden Administration issued an executive order, proposing that BEVs, PHEVS and FCEVs should account for 50% of all newly-sold passenger vehicles by 2030. In December 2020, the Japanese government released the “Green Growth Strategy”, proposing to phase out fuel vehicles in the next 15 years, realizing the substitution of electric vehicles (including HEVs and FCEVs) for fuel vehicles by 2035, and hitting the carbon neutrality goal by 2050. In order to respond to these policies and regulations, as well as take the required social responsibilities, major companies have accelerated the pace of R&D and innovation of electric vehicles, put forward the electrification strategy, and defined the target time to stop the sale of ICE vehicles and the target time of carbon neutrality. Specifically, Jaguar plans to realize full electrification by 2025; Volvo, BMW MINI and Mercedes-Benz plans to realize the transformation into a BEV brand or full electrification by 2030; GM, Toyota and Lexus plan to realize full electrification by 2035, as shown in Fig. 4.7. Besides, BMW also announced to increase the proportion

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Fig. 4.6 Governments’ target time for 100% stop /phase-out of sales and registration of new ICE vehicles

of NEVs in the total delivery to at least 50% by 2030; Volkswagen issued the “2030 NEW AUTO” strategy which also clearly stated to increase the proportion of BEVs to 50% by 2030; Nissan issued the 2030 Vision, making a clear plan to increase the proportion of electric models of Nissan and Infiniti brands to above 50%. The major big automobile countries have strengthened their strategic planning and policy support for new energy vehicles, and multinational automobile enterprises have increased their R&D investment and improved their industrial layout for new energy vehicle. NEV has become the main direction of the transformation and development of the global automotive industry and an important engine for the sustainable growth of the world economy, as shown in Fig. 4.8. The EV sales and penetration rate are also rising globally [4] (source: EV-Volumes), as shown

Fig. 4.7 Electrification strategies of major automobile enterprises and the planned target time

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Fig. 4.8 Annual sales of electric passenger vehicles in all market segments from 2011 to 2021

in Fig. 4.9; Tesla, with a mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy, delivered nearly 1,000,000 vehicles in 2021. In a word, the world has opened her arms to embrace the electric vehicles.

4.2.2.2

Development of NEV Industry in China

On September 22, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping announced at the general debate of the 75th UN General Assembly that China is striving to peak CO2 emissions by 2030, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Since automotive industry is an important carbon emission source and a major energy consumer in China, its carbon emission reduction and low-carbon development also affect the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, and besides, the carbon emission of vehicles in the fuel cycle (including fuel use process and fuel production process) takes the largest proportion in the life cycle carbon footprint. Therefore, developing new energy vehicles is a necessary and wise movement in the course of carbon emission reduction of automotive industry, which is also the only way for China to transform from a big automobile country into a powerful automobile country. On October 20, 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035) [5], which makes an overall planning for the development of China’s NEV industry during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period and in the medium and long term, defines the development vision and

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Fig. 4.9 Global annual sales and penetration rate of electric passenger vehicles from 2012 to 2021

five key tasks, and puts forward support measures to provide overall guidance for the development of the NEV industry. Then on October 27, the Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0 (hereinafter referred to as “Roadmap 2.0”) prepared under the guidance of the Manufacturing Industry No. 1 Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the leadership of China Society of Automotive Engineers was issued, which, based on the social vision and industrial vision of automotive technology, and the electrification strategy, puts forward six overall goals for 2035, including peaking of the total carbon emission of China’s automotive industry around 2028 ahead of the national commitment, and reduction of the total carbon emission by more than 20% compared with the peak by 2035; NEVs have gradually become the mainstream automobile products, and years 2025, 2030 and 2035 are the key nodes for the automotive industry to basically realize the electrification. It is estimated that by 2035, the annual sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles in China will account for 50% and 50% respectively, realizing full electrification of the automotive industry. In fact, China has made remarkable achievements in vehicle electrification, with the market penetration rate of NEVs steadily increased and the industrial scale development accelerated. In 2019, due to cyclical fluctuations in the automobile industry, the reduction of subsidies, and the marketing promotion of conventional fuel vehicles, the NEV market was shrunk for the first time and developed not as well as expected. Then in the first half of 2020, the NEV market was negatively affected by

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the COVID-19 pandemic, but it recovered and even grew with a strong momentum in the second half of the year. Throughout 2020, the sales of NEVs were 1.367 million, with a YoY growth rate of 10.9%. In 2021, China’s vehicle production and sales increased compared with last year, putting an end to the three consecutive years of decline since 2018, as shown in Fig. 4.10. Among all vehicle types, NEV have become the brightest star with sales of more than 3.5 million and an increased market share of 13.4%, further indicating that the driving force of NEV market has shifted from policy to market demand (Fig. 4.11). In terms of the life cycle carbon footprint, the carbon emission from vehicle use takes the largest proportion. As described in Sect. 3.4, in 2021, the fuel cycle carbon emission of passenger vehicles was about 520 million tCO2 e, accounting for 74% of the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. Therefore, accelerating the transformation from conventional fuel vehicles to zero-emission vehicles is the most

Fig. 4.10 Annual sales of NEVs in China

Fig. 4.11 Market penetration rate of NEVs in China over the years

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important way to achieve carbon peak and carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry as soon as possible. This study is based on the key parameter targets in the “Roadmap 2.0”, and references the technical targets in current plans, technical guidance and relevant standards including New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035) and Limits of fuel consumption for passenger vehicles, as well as the research reports issued by International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), International Energy Agency (IEA) as references. Based on the parameter setting for vehicle electrification scenario in 2021, the proportion relationship between battery electric passenger vehicles and hybrid electric passenger vehicles (BEV + PHEV) is added, the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in the total sales of passenger vehicles is increased, and a more positive prediction to the sales structure of new vehicles is made. For example, the “CALCP Report 2021” specified to increase the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in the total sales of passenger vehicles to 50% in 2035, and this parameter was adjusted to 62% this year. As shown in Figs. 4.12 and 4.13, under the reference scenarios, the electrification proportion of passenger vehicles (BEV + PHEV) will reach 40% in 2030 and 90% in 2060, and that of commercial vehicles (BEV) will reach 5.2% in 2030 and 16.9% in 2060; under the low-carbon scenario, the electrification proportion of passenger vehicles will reach 50% in 2030 and 88% in 2060, and that of commercial vehicles will reach 7.6% in 2030 and 28.3% in 2060; under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the electrification proportion of passenger vehicles will reach 70% in 2030 and 85% in 2060, and that of commercial vehicles will reach 10.8% in 2030 and 49.5% in 2060.s The parameters for energy efficiency improvement of passenger vehicles are set based on the energy efficiency in 2021, and the energy efficiency of different types of passenger vehicles will be improved in different extent in the future. With the increase of emission reduction intensity under different scenarios, the fuel consumption of diesel/gasoline passenger vehicles and hybrid electric passenger vehicles as well as the electricity consumption of battery electric passenger vehicles will decrease slightly, and the fuel consumption of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will decrease by about 30%. As time goes, the energy consumption of passenger vehicles of different fuel types will decrease significantly in the future, among which the fuel consumption of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will decrease the most (i.e. up to 50%), as shown in Fig. 4.14. As for the setting of parameters for energy efficiency improvement of commercial vehicles, the energy efficiency of battery electric commercial vehicles and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles will be significantly improved. Compared with the reference scenario, the effect of time on the energy efficiency of commercial vehicles of different fuel types is more obvious. For example, under the reference scenarios, the energy efficiency of fuel cell electric commercial vehicles and battery electric vehicles in 2060 will increase by about 40% and about 37% respectively compared with 2021. It is planned in “Roadmap 2.0” to increase the overall penetration rate of NEVs in China to 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030 and 50% in 2035. In fact, with the development trend of global carbon neutrality, customers’ awareness of low carbon, energy

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Fig. 4.12 Proportion of passenger vehicles of different fuel types in new passenger vehicle sales under three scenarios

conservation and environmental protection continues to improve, and customers’ acceptance to NEVs is also rising [6]. According to the Analysis Report of National Passenger Vehicle Market in December 2021 released by the China Passenger Vehicle Association (CPCA), the domestic retail penetration rate of NEVs reached 22.6% in December 2021. BYD, as the representative enterprise of China’s independent NEV brand, saw a rapid growth in its total sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2021, i.e. reaching nearly 600,000 units; the sales of three emerging auto manufacturing forces (namely NIO, XPeng and Li Auto) also exceeded 90,000; other national automobile brands, such as FAW, Changan, GAC, Geely and GWM also released their own electrification strategies. The improvement of charging infrastructures also accelerates the development of electric vehicles. The New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035)

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Fig. 4.13 Proportion of commercial vehicles of different fuel types in new commercial vehicle sales under three scenarios

clearly proposes to speed up the construction of charging and battery swapping infrastructures and improve the service level of charging infrastructures. In January 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other ministries, in order to fully implement the New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035), support the development of NEV industry, break through the development bottlenecks of charging infrastructure, promote the construction of new power systems, and assist in the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, clearly requires to further improve China’s EV charging support capacity, and establish a moderately advanced, balanced, intelligent and efficient charging infrastructure system by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan” to meet the charging demand of more than 20 million electric vehicles. Whether the bottlenecks in vehicle charging can achieve an effective breakthrough will have a significant impact on the low-carbon goal of road transport. As we know, users’ anxiety on mileage is more about the convenience and timeliness of charging

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Fig. 4.14 Setting of parameters for vehicle energy efficiency improvement under three scenarios

and battery swapping, and if charging or battery swapping is equally convenient as refueling or even more convenient than refueling (such as home charging), more users will tend to choose electric vehicles which are more environmentally friendly, intelligent and comfortable. The energy interaction between new energy vehicles and the power grid (V2G) should be strengthened, and the efficient cooperation between new energy vehicles and renewable energies should be promoted, so as to give full play to the “power sponge” effect of electric vehicles [7], enable the road transport sector to achieve the “carbon emission reduction effect of external coal power substitution” through “green power storage and discharge”, and realize the overall “net/negative carbon emission merit” of energy vehicles. According to the reference scenario, if China is able to realize V2G scale commercial application conditions around 2025, China’s V2G vehicles will account for nearly half of the total number of private and corporate

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vehicles by 2035 with a total volume of 100 million, the potential of coal power substitution through “green power storage and discharge” will exceed 700 billion kWh every year, and the annual “carbon emission reduction merits by external coal power substitution” will reach above 800 million tCO2 e. If the “carbon emission reduction merits by external coal power substitution” of V2G vehicles are included in the carbon emission reduction contribution of road transport sector, NEVs are expected to, after 2035, help the road transport sector achieve “net/negative carbon emissions”, and help other sectors such as manufacturing industry and building to increase the proportion of green power consumption to achieve deep carbon reduction, making a positive contribution to the realization of China’s carbon neutrality goal [8]. Therefore, it can be concluded that the addressing of climate change and the proposal of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals have accelerated the vigorous development of electric vehicles, and a clean power grid will further promote the life cycle carbon emission reduction of vehicles. The social demand for green and low-carbon transformation will inevitably promote the application of low-carbon materials in electric vehicles, the improvement of lightweight and energy efficiency, the echelon recycling of batteries, and the innovation and breakthrough of new technologies such as recycled materials. Electrification and carbon emission reduction interact mutually and promote the continuous upgrading and high-quality development of China’s automotive industry. As a response to the carbon neutrality goal, it is recommended to further strengthen the support of both policy and technology to the vehicle electrification, as detailed below: on one hand, strength the establishment of policies and regulations, dynamically adjust the corresponding policies and regulations according to the development stage of electrification in China, adopt the most suitable low-carbon strategy for China’s national conditions, and strengthen the harmonization with international rules; on the other hand, enhance the research and development of core low-carbon technologies, further promote the research on the carbon footprint of the whole automotive industry chain, and break through the core technology bottlenecks such as carbon emission data, model algorithms, and low-carbon technologies to realize the carbon neutrality of the whole automobile value chain.

4.2.3 Path 3: Mitigating GHG Emissions of Petroleum-Based Transport Fuels Introduction Oil, the second largest energy source in China (after coal), constitutes around 19% of the national energy supply in 2019 [9]. The use of oil products contributed about 14% of China’s overall CO2 emissions, accounting for approximately 1417 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2019 [10]. China’s oil demand is primarily driven by the transport sector, which accounts for over 55% of total petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) [11]. The unprecedented motorization development in China led to a

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significant increase in oil demand, with roughly 6% annual growth rate over the past 10 years [12]. Alternative powertrains such as electric vehicles are growing rapidly, however, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that oil demand in China will continue to rise in the coming decade [13] due to the accelerated urbanization and the increased mobility. Thus, reducing emissions from conventional vehicles powered by petroleum-based fuels is an important means to decarbonize China’s transport sector. While advances in vehicle efficiency technologies could help reduce fuel use, and therefore lower greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted, there are other complementary measures that can reduce emissions of GHGs from well-to-wheels (WTW). This includes improvements in crude oil extractions, oil refining, and the use of low carbon fuels as blending components. Crude oil extraction, transportation and refining are generally energy- and carbonintensive. On a global scale, the industry consumes approximately 3–4% of global primary energy [14], and is responsible for 9% of all human-made GHG emissions [15]. In China, on average, the total GHGs emitted from well-to-pump (WTP) account for about 18% of the total WTW GHG emissions of road transportation (China Automotive Life Cycle Database (CALCD) [16]). For the industry to play its part in the climate change goals, improvements in the processes of extracting and refining crude oil are critical. Many studies have highlighted the opportunities for mitigating GHG emissions from existing facilities, which include improved routine maintenance to reduce flaring and methane leaks [17], CO2 capture, storage, and reuse [18], and integration of renewables and low carbon energy sources for on-site use [19]. Furthermore, the blending of low carbon fuels, including biofuels (produced from sustainable biomass feedstock) and low-carbon electro-fuels (i.e., e-fuels, produced from recycled CO2 and green hydrogen), can lead to significant reductions in the carbon intensity of conventional fuels for combustion engines. E-fuels are gaining interest worldwide as a promising solution [20, 21], given that it can be fully compatible with existing infrastructures and vehicle fleet [22]. With a drop-in capability close to 100%, e-fuels allow combustion engine technologies and fossil infrastructures to become an integral part of the climate solution. Production of e-fuels are currently limited, but could increase with policy support and technological innovations. In the European Union, e-fuels are recognized as an eligible pathway to meet the 2030 transport renewable energy target in the recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED-II) [23]. In China, the vision and strategy for e-fuels were recently proposed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) [24]. A 1000-ton capacity pilot facility, developed by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics (DICP) and Zhuhai Futian Energy Technology, was recently launched in Shandong province to produce synthetic gasoline from CO2 and hydrogen by using innovative metal catalysis technology [25]. This section provides a quantitative assessment of the GHG improvement potential based on literature findings as a means to develop a possible decarbonization pathway on liquid fuels for combustion engines.

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Crude Oil Production China, the world’s largest oil importer, receives crude oil from a diverse number of oilfields all over the world. In 2021, China imported about 10.3 million barrels per day (MMbbld−1 ), accounting for an estimated 72.3% of its total crude demand [12]. Saudi Arabia and Russia are the top two largest oil suppliers to China accounting for ~12% and ~1% respective market shares in 2021. Other Middle Eastern (e.g. Iraq, Oman) and West African countries (e.g. Angola) contribute significantly to China’s crude oil imports (Fig. 4.15a). The GHG intensities of the crude oils imported by China can vary significantly (Fig. 4.15b), with the volume-weighted average GHG intensities for the top 25 oil supplies ranging between a low of 4.6 gCO2 e/MJ (from Saudi Arabia) and 29.2 gCO2 e/MJ (from Congo) [17]. Key factors affecting the GHG emission intensity of crude oils include its density and gas flaring operations. High GHG intensity oil fields (e.g., from Venezuela and Canada) involve productions of unconventional crude oils such as tar sands and extra-heavy oil, which require energy-intensive extraction (surface

Fig. 4.15 China crude oil mix and GHG intensity by country (>97% crude share since 2018). 1 China Customs Database [4] 2 M.S. Masnadi et al., Science 361, 6405 (2018) [9]

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mining or steam-assisted gravity drainage) and upgrading processes. Some conventional crude oil producers (e.g., Russia, Iran, Iraq, and the United States) involve high levels of gas flaring [26], resulting in higher GHG emission intensities. Saudi Arabia has the lowest country-level GHG intensity due to its low gas flaring rate, low water production (less mass lifted per unit of oil produced and less energy used for surface processing) and highly productive reservoirs. Crude oils produced from domestic oil fields in China also possess a relatively low GHG intensity compared to many other countries due to its modest volume of flaring [26, 27]. These imply an opportunity to decarbonize China’s crude oil intake by optimizing its supply considering the GHG intensities of the different sources. For discussion purposes, China’s crude oil supplies are split into three broad categories based on the country-level GHG intensity (Table 4.1). Over half of the total crude diet have emissions below 8 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil where the volume share grew by 6.5% from 2018 to 2021, while the share of countries with high GHG intensities (> 12 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil) declined in the last three years. As a result, there has been a progressive drop in the average GHG intensity of China’s crude oil consumption since 2018 (Fig. 4.16a). From a global perspective, there are several important GHG mitigation potentials (Fig. 4.16b) that can be considered. Based on the results of a generic oil field using the open-source oil sector LCA modeling tool—OPGEE [28], flaring, venting Table 4.1 China crude oil share by GHG intensity (top 25 countries) GHG intensity category

2018 (%)

2019 (%)

2020 (%)

2021 (%)

12 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil

18.1

16.3

13.6

12.8

Fig. 4.16 China volume weighted average crude oil GHG intensity and mitigation potentials

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and fugitives are important sources of GHG emissions from oil fields, which are typically associated with infrastructure problems and operational practices. Reduction of flaring intensity from 155 (global average in 2015) to 20 scf gas flared per bbl of oil produced (scf/bbl) (25th-percentile of the global oilfields in 2015 [17]) could allow for an estimated 20% GHG intensity reduction relative to a generic oil field (China’s domestic flaring intensity in 2015 is reported to be about 47 scf/bbl [28]). Moreover, additional 25% improvement in GHG intensity could be achieved by adopting best-in-class practices, in which venting and fugitive gases are reduced from the 2015 global average of 2.2 to 0.2 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil (based on the 2015 country-average value in Norway). Petroleum Refining The GHG intensiveness of petroleum refining depends critically on its refining complexity and how the heavy fractions of crude oils are processed. In 2015, over 75% of refineries in China are coking, deep conversion refineries, which are generally known to be energy and emissions intensive, emitting around 3 times as much CO2 e/bbl of crude oil than a typical hydroskimming refinery [19]. Representative refineries in China emit between ~5.9 and ~11.8 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil, with the volume weighted average GHG intensity as 9 gCO2 e/MJ-crude oil [19] (Fig. 4.17a). For a typical deep conversion coking refinery, the GHGs are mainly emitted from the hydrotreater (39%), FCC (19%), and gas oil hydrocracker (15%) units (Fig. 4.17b), with key GHG abatement measures include the deployment of carbon capture technologies (CC) and the use of low-carbon energy sources. International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas R&D Program [29] looks into 17–48% emissions avoidance by using post-combustion CCS in refineries. Jing et al. [19] estimates that the global refining emissions could potentially be reduced by 11% in a low-investment

Fig. 4.17 GHG intensity of China’s refining industry and mitigation potentials. 1 L. Jing Et Al., Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 526–532 (2020) [11]

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Fig. 4.18 Example of e-fuels production route (image courtesy of Aramco)

decision scenario by deploying CC at both FCC and steam methane reformer (SMR) for hydrogen production, and as much as 58% in a high-investment decision scenario by scaling up the carbon capture deployments and use of low-carbon steam and electricity (Fig. 4.17b). Blending in e-fuels E-fuels are produced via the chemical synthesis of carbon and hydrogen to form liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons. Hydrogen is generated from low-carbon electricity (via electrolysis) while the CO2 feedstock is captured either directly from the atmosphere (direct air capture (DAC)) or from point sources (e.g., industrial processes). The synthesis process can result in the production of synthetic diesel/gasoline, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), or other fuels, which can be used in many transport applications such as road vehicles, airplanes, or ships (Fig. 4.18). E-fuels can tap into the low cost and vast potentials of renewable energies (wind and solar), while potentially offering stability to grids with high penetrations of variable renewable energies. The challenges of handling hydrogen [30] (e.g. storage and transportation) can be circumvented. Synthetic gasoline and diesel are compatible with existing infrastructures, making them a suitable substitute that can initially be used as a low-percentage blending component in conventional fuels. As the concentration of low-carbon e-fuels in conventional gasoline/diesel are gradually increased over time, the carbon intensities of the fuels decline accordingly. Effectively, lowcarbon e-fuels offer a faster decarbonization potential for the transport sector especially as it can be used in existing vehicles on the road today, unlike other alternative powertrain solutions that are often limited by the slow vehicle turnover rate. Figure 4.19 depicts the WTW GHG intensities of e-fuels obtained from the literature. Compared to conventional petroleum-based fuel (87.5 gCO2 e/MJ (diesel) from CALCD), low-carbon synthetic fuels have the potentials to offer more than 70% GHG reductions. The literature data below are mainly for synthetic diesels,

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Fig. 4.19 WTW GHG intensity of e-fuels relative to petroleum fuels (diesel). UCalgary = University of Calgary, Liu et al. Sustainable Energy Fuels 2020, 4, 3129 [32]; ANL = Argonne national laboratory, Zang et al. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2021, 55, 3888–3897 [33]; ICCT: International Council on Clean Transportation [34]; PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research [31]

however, as shown by Ueckerdt et al. [31], the carbon intensities for synthetic gasoline and synthetic diesel are not significantly different when the production processes involve low-carbon pathways. A Possible Decarbonization Pathway Combustion engine vehicles that rely on liquid hydrocarbons are expected to constitute a large share of the vehicles on the road for some time to come. As discussed in the preceding paragraphs, there are significant potentials for reducing GHG emissions of the liquid fuels either during the manufacturing of the petroleum fuels or by gradually increasing the concentration of low-carbon synthetic fuels in the overall fuel blend. This is particularly important given that the benefits of low-carbon alternative powertrains are often limited by the slow vehicle turnover rate in the market. Furthermore, low-carbon liquid fuels could facilitate the decarbonization of the hardto-abate transport sectors such as heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, and shipping, in which alternatives have more limited prospects. Figure 4.20 presents a possible decarbonization pathway for liquid fuels resulting from the deployment of the various mitigation opportunities in each life cycle stage. The technologies, which are deployed incrementally, include: (1) reducing emissions due to flaring, venting, and fugitives by improving operations and reducing leakages during crude oil productions; (2) deploying carbon capture technologies within the refinery and coupled with the use of low-carbon utilities; and (3) gradually increasing the contents of low-carbon e-fuels in the final fuel blend. The e-fuels were assumed to have an average carbon intensity of 14 gCO2 e/MJ. However, the error bars in Fig. 4.20 reflect the variability associated with the use of e-fuels carbon intensity in the range of 3.9–29 gCO2 e/MJ. Here, it can be seen that the series of mitigation

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Fig. 4.20 A possible decarbonization pathway of petroleum-based transport fuels. Error bars reflect variations of e-fuels GHG intensity (Fig. 4.19)

measures could potentially enable large GHG reductions, in which up to ~55% GHG saving could be achieved when the fuel contains 60% low-carbon synthetic fuels. This chapter demonstrates a possible complementary decarbonization pathway for the road transport sector in China. The successes of these measures, however, require an appropriate policy framework to attract investments in low-carbon technologies, particularly to enable developments and deployments of low-carbon synthetic fuels at scale. An effective decarbonization strategy for the transport sector will require LCA-guided policy decisions that incorporate all technologies and all energy sources as opportunities to enable a low-carbon mobility future for China.

4.2.4 Path 4: Low-Carbon Material 4.2.4.1

Analysis on Low-Carbon Transformation Path of Steel

(1) Importance of steel Steel is one of the most commonly used materials in modern human society, and is widely applied in construction, machinery, automobile, shipbuilding, home appliances, hardware & tools and other industries. The steel has excellent recyclability. Specifically, it can be easily recycled by simple equipment for unlimited times without loss of physical and chemical properties. According to the estimation of the World Steel Association, automobile industry, with a steel consumption accounting for about 12% of the global steel consumption, is the third largest user of steel following construction industry (51%) and mechanical/electrical industry (18%) [35]. (2) Status-quo of carbon emission of steel The steel industry, as the manufacturing industry with the largest carbon emission in the world, follows only to the energy and transportation industries in terms of total

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carbon emission. The steel industry accounts for 7% [36] of the global total carbon emissions, and this proportion is high up to 17% in China. In 2020, the global total carbon emissions of the steel industry was 3.44 billion tCO2 e, including 2.6 billion tCO2 e of direct carbon emission (76%) and 840 million tCO2 e of indirect carbon emissions (24%) [37]; The global average carbon emission per ton of steel is about 1.85 tCO2 e (including indirect carbon emission), which can be reduced by 1.5 tCO2 e if the recycled steel instead of the iron ore is used3 . Therefore, the long industry process is the key and difficult point to achieve low-carbon transformation of China’s steel industry in the future. Steel industry is also one of the most difficult industries to achieve carbon neutrality, and is the second largest coal consumer following thermal power generation industry. At present, about 75% of the energy required by the steel industry in the world comes directly or indirectly from coal2 , which accounts for nearly 90% of the energy structure of China’s steel industry. As a middle and backbone industry of the China’s national economy, the steel industry has a long and complex industrial chain, involving mining, logistics, energy in the upstream and many national economic sector in the downstream such as infrastructure, real estate, machinery, automobile, shipbuilding, household appliances, metal products, etc. Therefore, it covers a very large employment area and has a huge impact on people’s livelihood. At present, the existing process technology is mature enough, the scale merit is close to the theoretical limit, the resource and energy utilization efficiency is high, and the global logistics system is efficient and sound. Based on this, most steel enterprises have low momentum to promote low-carbon transformation. (3) Basic path for low-carbon transformation of steel At the end of 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA), with the support of the World Steel Association and relevant enterprises and research institutions around the world, released the Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap, which analyzed the possible path to reduce the global total carbon emission of the steel industry by 90% in 2070 from the 2019 level. In May 2021, the World Steel Association released a position paper named Climate Change and Steel Production, which clearly describes the main pathways for the global steel industry to achieve low-carbon development. From the short term, medium term and long term, generally the global steel industry should try to reduce the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel from the following three aspects: 1. Improving the energy efficiency of existing technical equipment The modern steel industry has undergone more than 150 years of development, and through continuous technological innovation and equipment transformation, it has nearly approached the theoretical energy efficiency limit that the existing process and equipment may reach. However globally, the development is not in balance between countries and regions. The energy efficiency of some advanced steel enterprises is close to the theoretical limit, while for most steel enterprises, their energy

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efficiency still has much room for further improvement. According to the statistics of the World Steel Association, the energy consumption intensity of some poorlydeveloped steel enterprises is about 30–50% higher than that of the most advanced enterprises, provided the process technology, equipment and crude fuel used are similar. If the energy efficiency of those poorly-developed steel enterprises can be improved to the level of advanced steel enterprises, it is roughly estimated that the global energy efficiency per ton of steel in the steel industry will increase by 10–15%, which will then bring a considerable reduction in carbon emission intensity per ton of steel. The achievement of this low-carbon path only requires small-scale transformation of existing processes and equipment, or promotion of advanced management methods, and does not require a large amount of capital investment, and thus, it is an effective way to reduce the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel in the short term. To improve the energy efficiency of poorly-developed steel enterprises to the level of advanced steel enterprises, the following four measures are recommended. (1) Improve the resource utilization efficiency: adopt the most economically feasible raw materials including high-quality iron ore, steel scrap, coal, natural gas, auxiliary raw materials, etc., improve the utilization of high-grade raw materials (especially iron ore and coal), minimize the use of raw materials with high impurity content and great smelting difficulty, and carry out fine processing of raw ores in the raw material mining link to reduce the energy consumption and slag output in the smelting link. (2) Reduce the energy intensity per ton of steel: adopt the latest technical equipment and practical experience in all links of process such as energy transportation, energy storage, energy conversion and equipment power supply to minimize the energy intensity. (3) Improve the reliability of technological equipment: by adopting modern management system and experience, make full use existing equipment, improve the effective operation time of equipment, and reduce the time of idle, turnover and fault maintenance, so as to minimize energy waste and improve the production efficiency of each process link. (4) Improve the process yield: minimize the iron loss in each process link through technical transformation and strengthening of production site management, and comprehensively recycle the iron-containing by-products through advanced technologies, so as to maximize the iron recycling rate and reduce the consumption of primary raw material and fuel. 2. Making full use of steel scraps Though the technical transformation of existing processes and equipment has the potential to improve the energy efficiency, such improvement is limited and works only in a short term. To further reduce the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel in the medium term, it is necessary to make full use of steel scraps. According to the estimation of the World Steel Association,1 ton of steel scrap, if recycled, can save 1.4 tons of iron ore and 0.74 tons of coal, which is equivalent to a carbon emission reduction of 1.5 tCO2 e3 . According to the estimation of the World Steel Association, about 700 million tons of steel scraps are recycled every year in the world, of which 250 million tons are in China; the crude steel produced from recycled steel accounts for about 32%

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of the global steel output, of which about 22% is in China. In the future, the amount of global steel scrap resources will rise steadily, and is expected to reach about 850 million tons (about 320 millions in China) in 2030 and about 1150 million tons (about 400 million tons in China) in 20502 . The best way to make full use of steel scraps is to replace parts of traditional BF-BOF process with electric furnace process. That is, in areas with sufficient steel scrap resources, stop the building of BF-BOF process capacity, increase EAF process capacity, and if appropriate, replace some existing BF-BOF process capacity with EAF process capacity. 3. Developing new generation of steel production technologies According to the estimates of the World Steel Association and the International Energy Agency, the global steel consumption is expected to rise from 1.95 billion tons in 2021 to about 2.15 billion tons in 20502 . Due to the huge global steel demand and the limited availability of steel scrap resources, the steel scrap resource, even if fully recycled, still cannot meet the demand of steel production. Therefore from the long term, the development of new generation of steel production technologies is the only way for the steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality. By June 2022, 28 steel enterprises around the world, including China Baowu, Ansteel, HBIS and Baotou Steel in China, have issued clearly-defined carbon neutrality goals, and announced to reduce their carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 (or by 2040). In order to achieve the carbon neutrality goal, the world’s leading steel enterprises have taken active actions and invested a lot of resources in the research and development of new generation of steel production technologies with hydrogen metallurgy as the mainstream process. Steel enterprises in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea started early in the research and development of new generation of steel production technologies, and such research and development can even be traced to more than 20 years ago, but the progress was slow. European enterprises, as represented by SSAB, ThyssenKrupp, ArcelorMittal, Salzgitter and Voestalpine, have increased their R&D investment in those new technologies since the signature of the Paris Agreement in 2015, and thus they are taking a leading position temporarily, and have promoted the R&D resolution and investment of steel enterprises in other regions. In November 2021, Baowu launched the establishment of the Global Low-Carbon Metallurgical Innovation Alliance (GLCMIA) which has initiated the first 25 scientific research projects focusing on hydrogen metallurgy and full-oxygen carbon-cycle blast furnace production technology. HBIS is building a hydrogen-based direct reduction iron plant with a designed annual output of 600,000 tons in Xuanhua City, Hebei Province, which is planned to be put into operation in 2022, and is expected to get its capacity doubled in a few years. Jianlong, the second largest private steel enterprise in China, has also launched its decarbonization project, and in April 2021, the 300,000t/a hydrogen energy direct reduction iron plant built by the company in Inner Mongolia was put into operation. In February 2022, Baowu started the 1,000,000t/a hydrogenbased direct reduction project in Zhanjiang Steel Base, the first phase of which is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023.

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The hydrogen metallurgy technology, as a new-generation production technology, features weak foundation, great difficulty, large capital investment and long R&D cycle, and is impossible to replace the traditional production process in a short time. According to the information disclosed by some enterprises, the earliest all-green hydrogen steel production project that may be put into medium-sized commercial production is the Hybritt Project of Swedish Steel AB (SSAB) in Lulea, Sweden, which is planned to supply near zero-emission steel plates produced without using fossil fuels to Volvo and other automobile enterprises from 2026, and for most steel enterprises, their R&D projects of will not be put into large-scale commercial production until 2030 or even 2035. Another new type of production process led by Boston Metal—electrolytic reduction technology—is expected to be unable to realize large-scale application before 2040. Synchronized with the research and development of new-generation steel production technologies, the research and development on the application of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology in the steel industry is also in progress. At present, the production technology of methanol and ethanol using CO2 captured from steel plants is basically mature and has been proved possible by a few enterprises such as Shougang and Jianlong, but it still faces some challenges such high cost and poor scale merit. ArcelorMittal and other European steel enterprises are also planning to build CCUS projects, but large-scale CO2 utilization and storage in the steel industry, especially CO2 storage (with no application case available at present), is expected to be impossible before 2035, as shown in Fig. 4.21. Based on the implementation degree and time of the carbon reduction technology paths above, it is expected that the global carbon emission intensity per ton of steel will gradually decline, and by 2050, it will decrease by about 65% compared with 2019, as shown in Fig. 4.22. By 2025, through energy efficiency benchmarking and energy efficiency upgrading around the world, the total carbon emission and emission intensity of steel can be somehow reduced without prejudice to the growth of steel production. After 2025, the global steel demand will maintain a slight growth momentum, but the improvement of energy efficiency together with the massive use of steel scraps and the gradual promotion and application of new-generation low-carbon production technologies will enable a steady decline in the total carbon emission and emission intensity of the steel industry.

Fig. 4.21 Carbon reduction technology paths for steel and their expected implementation time

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Fig. 4.22 Trends in steel production, carbon emissions and carbon intensity from 2019 to 2050— under IEA’s sustainable development scenario

2019

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Steel production

100

108

108.5

109.5

110.5

113.5

114.5

Total carbon emissions

100

96.5

88

79.5

68

59.5

46

Carbon emission intensity

100

90.5

78.5

66.5

56

46

35.5

Although governments of various countries/regions have adopted new policies and measures as well as a large number of actions to promote the low-carbon transformation of steel, the steel industry still faces many challenges in the process of decarbonization, including high proportion of BF-BOF process capacity with iron ore as raw material, problems in quantity and quality of steel scrap supply, difficult financing for decarbonization in the steel industry, and the most core problems facing hydrogen metallurgy technology in the future (namely the large, safe and economic supply of green hydrogen), which will affect the progress of low-carbon transformation of steel.

4.2.4.2

Carbon Neutrality of Steel from the Perspective of Life Cycle

(1) Low-carbon metallurgy technology route and digital demand of China’s steel industry The steel industry is a pillar industry of China’s economic development, and also a key carbon emission industry. The carbon peak and carbon neutrality of steel enterprises is related to the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure, energy structure, product structure and the application of new technologies, and thus it is necessary to plan objectives and tasks from a comprehensive view and formulate action plans scientifically. At present, major steel enterprises in China have released a low-carbon roadmap.

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For example, Baowu has proposed to achieve the carbon peak in 2023, obtain the process and technology capacity to reduce carbon by 30% in 2025, reduce the carbon emission by 30% in 2035, and realize carbon neutrality in 2050. Its carbon– neutral metallurgy technology will be deployed and implemented by the following six carbon reduction routes: (1) Carbon reduction based on energy efficiency limit of steel process: Study the full-process theoretical and technical energy consumption limit model, and try to approach the energy efficiency limit through the application of best available commercial technology (BACT) and the integrated innovation in intelligent manufacturing, interface energy efficiency improvement, deep recycling of waste heat and energy and other fields. (2) Carbon reduction by BF process technology: BF process is the main process of steel production. Through technological innovation, separate the CO2 of blast furnace gas, improve its quality, heat it and then return it to the blast furnace for reuse, so as to maximize the carbon recycling rate of blast furnace; apply hydrogen-rich metallurgy technology and build a hydrogenrich carbon-cycle blast furnace technology system, striving to achieve the goal of reducing the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel by about 30% compared with the traditional blast furnace technology. (3) Carbon reduction by hydrogen metallurgy technology: put focus on the research of green hydrogen production process technology, hydrogen direct reduction iron ore process technology and integrated green hydrogen-direct reduction-electric furnace short process metallurgy technology, so as to achieve a significant reduction in carbon emission per ton of steel compared with BF-BOF process. (4) Carbon reduction by short-process nearnet-shape manufacturing technology: Different from the traditional production mode, build a short-process near-net-shape manufacturing technology platform, and carry out research on the electric furnace + near net shape manufacturing technology path to achieve extremely low carbon emission in steel processing process. (5) Carbon reduction by circular economy: Develop technologies for the use of recycled steel, iron/carbon-containing solid wastes, multi-source biomass and other resources in the steel production and reduce fossil energy consumption to continuously reduce the carbon emission intensity per ton of steel. (6) Carbon reduction by carbon dioxide recycling technology: Through large-scale capture and recycling of CO2 produced in steel process at a low cost, explore the technology for deep carbon reduction in steel process. Ansteel has proposed to peak the carbon emission by 2025; achieve a breakthrough in the industrial application of cutting-edge low-carbon metallurgical technologies, promote the application of deep carbon reduction processes on a large scale by 2030, and strive to reduce the total carbon emissions by 30% compared with the peak in 2035; continue to develop low-carbon metallurgical technologies to make Ansteel be one of the first large steel enterprises in China’s steel industry to achieve carbon neutrality. The “Five paths” for its low-carbon development are as follows—Path 1: layout and process re-engineering: promote mergers and acquisitions, optimize industrial layout, re-engineer technological processes to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions; Path 2: resource consumption reduction: promote product life cycle management, encourage green production, and manufacture lowcarbon materials to reduce social resource consumption; Path 3: energy structure

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optimization: deploy the new energy industry, adjust the energy structure, develop energy storage technology, and build a source-grid-load-storage and multi-energy complement energy system; Path 4: green mine demonstration: give full play to the advantages of advanced mining and mineral processing technology to improve the utilization efficiency of mineral resources, make full use of mine land resources and develop green energy, and strengthen reclamation and increase ecological carbon sink; Path 5: cutting-edge technology innovation: accelerate the research, development and application of low-carbon metallurgy technology and CCUS technology with the technology innovation as guidance, and share the achievements. HBIS has proposed to implement the three-stage low-carbon transformation process including carbon peak period, steady decline period and deep decarbonization period, achieve a carbon emission reduction of 10% from the peak in 2025 and 30% in 2030, and finally achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Its six carbon reduction technology paths are as follows: (1) ferrite resource optimization, including increase of long-process pellet ratio and scrap ratio; (2) process optimization and reconstruction, including increase of the proportion of all steel scrap EAF process and interface optimization; (3) system energy efficiency improvement, including application of various energy-saving technologies, improvement of intelligent management and control level, and increase of the proportion of self-generated electricity; (4) energy consumption structure optimization, including application of green power and green logistics; (5) low-carbon technology transformation, including application of hydrogen metallurgy technology and CCUS technology; (6), cooperative industry carbon reduction, including development of forestry carbon sink, green building materials and urban integration. As per the low-carbon plans, steel enterprises have a deep understanding of the technologies, methods and approaches of carbon reduction. But they have not established a digital concept on the carbon reduction potential of these methods and approaches, and have not made quantitative assessment to the effect of local improvement by technical measures on the carbon reduction of the whole system, and thus have no sufficient scientific carbon data support in the decision-making of low-carbon planning. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a product-oriented “cradle-to-grave” method and analysis tool for environment management, an international standard method for systematic and quantitative description of consumption and environmental emission of various resources and energies as well as for assessment of their impact on environment [38, 39], and also a scientific international method for evaluating product environmental footprint (including carbon footprint, water footprint, etc.), green production, green manufacturing, green supply chain and ecological design. As implied by the definition, LCA has three characteristics: (1) product orientation; (2) digital quantitative analysis; (3) systematic life cycle assessment. Therefore, LCA can digitally show the life cycle environmental performance of a product, analyze and compare the environmental performance of the same products with different manufacturing methods and the environmental performance of the different products for the same function, and avoid the transfer of environmental impact from one process to another, or from one pollutant to other pollutants.

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Therefore, it allows steel enterprises to make low-carbon planning scientifically, systematically and quantitatively. (2) Building of the relationship between product carbon footprint and organization carbon emissions At present, there are generally two modes available for the management of enterprise carbon emissions. One is organization level management defined in ISO 14064– 1:2018 Greenhouse gases—Part 1: Specification with guidance at the organization level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals [40], and the carbon accounting method used in China currently is a simplified version derived from this standard. The Guidelines for Accounting and Reporting Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Chinese Steel Enterprises (Trial) issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) specifies the requirements for accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese steel enterprises. The other management mode is LCA-based product-oriented management defined in ISO 14067:2018 Greenhouse gases—Carbon footprint of products—Requirements and guidelines for quantification [41]. The enterprise-level carbon emission accounting boundary of China’s steel enterprises covers the direct emissions of the enterprises and the indirect emissions from the purchased electric power and heat and is based on the carbon balance between total input and total output, and thus it does not involve the details of specific processes and processes. Steel enterprises have long process and various operation procedures, and thus this black box accounting method based on total input and total output is more applied to the national carbon emission management of enterprises and the assessment of enterprises to their own total carbon emissions and cannot effectively guide the steel enterprises to refine the carbon reduction planning. The product carbon footprint based on LCA is accounted for according to the actual process path of the product following the calculation logic of adding direct carbon emissions with indirect carbon emissions. According to GB/T 30052–2013 Life cycle assessment specification on steel product (Product category rules) [42], it can be expressed as follows: bT,F,g = b F,g +



aT ,i bi,g

(4.1)

where, bT,F,g b F,g aT,i bi,g

cumulative elementary flow g based on the functional unit F. direct flow of elementary flow g in the process of product production based on the functional unit F. direct consumption of crude fuel per functional unit in unit process i of product system. direct flow of elementary flow g in unit process i.

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aT ,i bi,g cumulative elementary flow g based on the functional unit in all foreground processes (such as raw material mining process and transportation process, etc.) and all background processes (such as product use process, waste utilization process, etc.).

The boundary of LCA can be determined according to the actual situation, which usually includes: “From cradle to grave”: the whole life cycle of the product, including resource/energy exploitation, production, processing, manufacturing, use and maintenance, and recycling; “From cradle to gate”: the process from the resource/energy exploitation and production to the transportation of the manufactured product under study out of the factory gate; “From gate to gate”: from the transportation into the gate of the factory to the transportation out of the factory gate, that is, the manufacturing stage. For steel products, due to a wide range of downstream applications, the “cradleto-grave” analysis is only applicable to specific users. Therefore, steel enterprises generally carry out cradle-to-gate LCA, that is, the process of forming steel products from exploitation and transportation of raw materials including iron ore and coal, to the processing of raw materials including coking and sintering, and finally to the manufacturing of product through a series processes including iron smelting, steel smelting, steel rolling and heat treatment. LCA is oriented towards products, as products are the carriers of carbon emissions. Changes in the whole process and system, such as changes of energy structure, improvement of energy efficiency, increase of yield, and application of new technologies, can be all reflected to the changes in the carbon emissions of the product. The change of product carbon footprint is required to be associated with the carbon accounting at the organization level to link the detailed LCA carbon footprint results with the overall carbon emissions of steel enterprises, so as to provide guidance for their low-carbon planning. According to the analysis and comparison of calculation logic and boundary of LCA-based carbon accounting and organization level carbon accounting, the relationship can be established by Formula (4.2): E=



( pi · LC AC O2 ,i )

(4.2)

where, E Total carbon emissions within the LCA system boundary pi Delivery quantity of product i (out of the system boundary) LCACO2,i CO2 emissions of product i in LCA results The Formula (4.2) physically interprets the total carbon emissions carried by all carbon emission carriers delivered out of the system boundary, and does not include the internally utilized intermediate products. For example, if part of the hot-rolled coils produced are sold out and part of them are used for cold-rolled products, the intermediate products used for cold rolling are not included in Formula (4.2).

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According to the accounting boundary specified in the Guidelines for Accounting and Reporting Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Chinese Steel Enterprises (Trial), the Formula (4.2) can be written as follows: (4.3) where, E Steel enterprise

pi LCACO2,gate-to-gate,i LCACO2, purchased power and heat, i

Total carbon emissions of the steel enterprise accounted for according to the boundary defined in the Guidelines Delivery quantity of product i (out of the system boundary) CO2 emissions within the gate-to-gate boundary in the LCA results of product i CO2 emissions brought into the boundary by purchased power and heat in the LCA results of product i

(3) Application of LCA in low-carbon planning of steel enterprises The carbon emission reduction performance of new technology & process application, product structure change, energy structure change, steel scrap recycling rate increase, energy conservation and emission reduction improvement, supply chain optimization and other factors can be quantified by establishing a product life cycle assessment model covering the whole enterprise, as shown in Fig. 4.23. Assessment of carbon emission reduction potential of new technology & process application. The application of new technologies and processes is the most common and typical application scenario of LCA. LCA comparison is based on the same functional unit,

Fig. 4.23 Quantitative assessment of carbon emission reduction potential of each measure and strategy by LCA

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Fig. 4.24 Comparison of carbon footprint of billets from typical BOF process and EAF process

that is, the assessment of impact on resources, energy and environmental emissions under the same functional conditions. For example, Fig. 4.24 is a LCA analysis for comparison between BOF process and EAF process, and shows the composition of the product carbon footprint of different processes. If necessary, the composition for the processes in plant can be further detailed. Similar analysis can be used for the application of low-carbon processes to predict the carbon reduction potential and its detailed composition, such as the LCA simulation of hydrogen-based shaft furnace direct reduction-EAF route and traditional BF-BOF route. Effect of product structure on carbon peak. There is a view that the carbon peak in the steel industry is actually the peak of steel output, which makes senses when the product structure is relatively fixed. However, if the product structure changes and the proportion of deeply-processed products increases, carbon emissions may rise significantly under the same steel output. LCA results show that the carbon footprints of different products are quite different. Table 4.2 lists the global average carbon footprint of steel products in 2020 released by the World Steel Association, and as shown, the carbon footprints of different products differ by nearly one times, and even by three times if the oriented silicon steel and stainless steel are considered. Therefore, the impact of product structure must be considered in the carbon peak planning. Formula (4.3) can be used to dynamically simulate the change of total carbon emissions of enterprises under different product structures, where pi represents the product structure. LCA establishes a relationship between the product structure and Table 4.2 Global average carbon footprint of steel products released by the World Steel Association—Extract [43] (from cradle to gate, kg CO2 eq./kg) Product name

Profile (Section steel)

Reinforcement (Rebar)

Hot-rolled coil

Organic coating coil coated coil

Carbon footprint

1.578

1.966

2.343

2.894

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the total carbon emissions of enterprises and provides support for enterprises to adjust and optimize product structure. Impact of energy structure on carbon emissions. Energy structure change is an important way to carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality, that is, replacing fossil energies at the energy supply side with carbon-free energies for power generation and hydrogen production to build a green and clean electric power system and energy supply system. Of course, this is a long course, and steel enterprises are required to gradually plan the carbon emission reduction target of each stage while formulating the carbon emission reduction roadmap. In the LCA model, the relationship between energy use and overall carbon emissions can be established by adjusting the energy composition and energy consumption efficiency, so as to formulate a reasonable carbon emission reduction roadmap for adjusting the energy structure. Carbon emissions per unit calorific value of common fuels in steel plants are shown in Fig. 4.25. As shown, the “substitution of natural gas for coal” strategy is one of possible ways to reduce carbon emission. LCA analysis shows that [44], under the existing process of steel enterprises, more than 60% of coal energy is used as reducing agent and other raw materials rather than fuel, and the occasions where “ substitution of natural gas for coal” strategy can be applied mainly include power plant coal-fired power generation unit, blast furnace pulverized coal injection, calcination pulverized coal injection, and etc. The implementation of “ substitution of natural gas for coal” strategy can realize a carbon emission reduction of 33% from the current level. Mixed gas is a representative for comprehensive utilization of byproducts in steel enterprises, and if it is replaced by natural gas, waste of by-product gases will be caused.

Fig. 4.25 Carbon emissions per unit calorific value of common fuels in steel plants

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Fig. 4.26 Carbon emissions of power production from various sources (kgCO2 e/kWh)

Power structure change is an important direction for steel enterprises to reduce carbon emission. Figure 4.26 lists the life cycle carbon footprints of various electric powers sourced from the China Automotive Life Cycle Database (CALCD). LCA can simulate the carbon emission reduction potential of steel enterprises from such actions as closing coal-fired power plants, purchasing grid power and purchasing green power. Prediction of carbon emission reduction potential of steel scrap recycling rate increase. The increase of steel scrap recycling rate has a significant effect on carbon emission reduction, as shown in Fig. 4.24. For the assessment of the carbon emission reduction effect of steel scrap recycling rate increase, the whole process of steel scrap industry chain, including steel scrap recovery, dismantling, processing, and shredding, distribution and application, should be considered from the perspective of life cycle. As the supply of steel scrap resources cannot meet the demand of steel production, it is necessary to consider the availability of steel scrap resources and gradually increase the steel scrap recycling rate during low-carbon planning for improvement of steel scrap recycling rate. The steel scrap recycling rate can mainly be improved by the following two methods, that is increase of BOF scrap ratio, and increase of EAF steelmaking proportion. In the LCA simulation to the increase of BOF scrap ratio, the composition of molten iron and steel scrap in the LCA model and the parameters such as heat supplement agent to be added after the scrap ratio is increased can be dynamically adjusted, so as to build the correlation between the increase of scrap ratio and the overall carbon emission of the enterprise. In the LCA simulation to the increase of EAF steelmaking proportion, when the steel output of the enterprise is limited, it is necessary to maintain the balance of the overall steel output of the EAF path and the BOF path in the LCA model.

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The LCA simulation results show that the ratio of increase of steel scrap recycling rate to carbon emission reduction of steel enterprises is related to the product structure of the enterprise. If the proportion of highly processed products is higher, the proportion of carbon emission of smelting system is lower, and ratio of the increase of scrap ratio to overall carbon emission reduction is also lower. Supply chain carbon emission management. From the analysis of carbon footprint composition of steel products, supply chain and external transportation account for 20–30% of carbon footprint of steel products, and thus are important parts of carbon footprint of steel products. The low-carbon planning of steel enterprises should consider not only the carbon emission reduction within the enterprise, but also the carbon emission of the supply chain. If appropriate, some carbon reduction pressure can also be transferred to suppliers to promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial chain. Figure 4.27 is the LCA analysis of electrodes from different suppliers. To the end of the EAF molten steel production, the impact of electrode use on life cycle carbon emission of EAF molten steel is different from supplier to supplier. Steel enterprises can establish a supplier LCA-based green assessment system, build a product carbon database, and when enough data are accumulated, establish a green access system to phase out high carbon emission products. (4)

The regular disclosure of life cycle carbon emission of steel can provide support for the carbon footprint accounting and carbon emission reduction planning of the automotive industry

When it comes to the impact of the steel industry on the environment, there is often a misunderstanding that steel is a non-environmentally friendly material as the production of steel products will consume a lot of energy and emit a lot of CO2 and other pollutants. This is quite one-sided view. As the most widely used and most productive material in human society, steel has not been replaced by other materials so far. The improvement of the performance of steel products and the production

Fig. 4.27 Comparison of carbon emissions of electrodes from different suppliers

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of high value-added steel products will generally increase the environmental load of the steel manufacturing process, but can help reduce the environmental load of downstream industries and the whole society to a greater extent. In fact, the steel industry bears more social responsibilities than others. In the automotive industry, the use of high-strength steel panels and bars can help reduce the weight of vehicles and thus improve their energy economy with less energy consumed and less GHG emitted. The application of laser tailor-welded blanks can simplify the process of automobile manufacturing and thus reduce the impact on the environment; the use of high-strength steel and laser tailor-welded blanks can also improve the safety performance of vehicles; the application of hot dip galvanized high-strength steel, electro galvanized high-strength steel and stainless steel for exhaust system can prolong the service life of those automobile parts, reduce waste and thereafter the carbon emissions. Therefore, the industrial low-carbon development plan shall be formulated in a scientific way with the whole society and the whole industrial chain systematically considered. From the concept of life cycle assessment, if another material than steel is to be used to realize the same function and output, it always means a higher environmental load, which indirectly reflects the environmental protection characteristics of the steel. With the introduction of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, it is necessary to establish a life cycle carbon emission information disclosure platform for steel to support the carbon footprint accounting and carbon emission reduction route planning of the automotive industry and other downstream industries. LCA is a standard language for international dialogue in the green and low-carbon product field, and will play a more important role in this field when the “carbon neutrality” has become the front hotspot and trend of global green development. The active participation of China’s steel industry in the international steel LCA will help promote the green and low-carbon transformation of China’s steel industry, improve its green and low-carbon image, and increase its voice in this field and also its competitiveness in international market. Enhancing the participation and voice in the construction of international carbon label assessment system is an essential way for China to cope with international green trade barriers and international environmental taxes (such as the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)), enhance the voice in the international green and low-carbon product field, and occupy a favorable position in the international competition. Therefore, China should actively participate in the formulation of carbon label assessment system, constantly strengthen China’s voice in this field, and enhance China’s core competitiveness in international trade through strong competition with other countries. (5)

Conclusions and recommendations

In the process of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” path planning, steel enterprises should scientifically and systematically formulate a carbon emission reduction roadmap with the whole steel industry chain and the whole product life cycle considered. LCA allows steel enterprises to make low-carbon planning scientifically, systematically and quantitatively. By establishing a product life cycle assessment model covering the whole enterprise, the carbon emission reduction performance of

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new technology & process application, product structure change, energy structure change, steel scrap recycling rate increase, energy conservation and emission reduction improvement, supply chain optimization and other factors can be quantified, realizing digital description of the carbon emission reduction roadmap. Disclosure of the steel life cycle carbon emission information will undoubtedly drive the development of the upstream and downstream industrial chains and enable the participation of the whole industrial chain in green and low-carbon transformation. The regular disclosure of life cycle carbon emission of steel can provide support for the carbon footprint accounting and carbon emission reduction planning of the automotive industry.

4.2.4.3

Thinking on Low-Carbon Transformation of Aluminum Processing Industry

According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), the total CO2 emissions from China’s nonferrous metal industry in 2020 accounted for 6.5% of the total CO2 emissions in China, and aluminum is the largest product and also the large carbon emission source in the nonferrous metal industry. In China, the CO2 emissions from aluminum industry accounted for 77% of the total CO2 emissions from nonferrous metal industry and 5% of the national total CO2 emissions, which proves that the aluminum industry has great potential for carbon emission reduction. (1) Importance of aluminum and aluminum alloy in carbon emission reduction of automotive industry According to statistics, CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 5 g/km for every 100 kg of vehicle weight reduction, indicating that automobile lightweight is of great significance to energy conservation and consumption reduction. It is demonstrated by experiments that, if the vehicle weight is reduced by 10%, the fuel efficiency can be increased by 6%-8%. Specifically, for every 100 kg reduction of vehicle curb weight, the fuel consumption per 100 km will drop by 0.3–0.6 L for fuel vehicles, or the range will increase by 6%-11% for electric vehicle; the fuel consumption will drop by 0.7% for every 1% of reduction in vehicle weight.1 In terms of weight, metal parts account for more than 85% of the total weight of all parts on the vehicle. Therefore, the weight reduction of metal parts has become the key to automobile lightweight, that is to say, metal part lightweight is the most reliable way to automobile lightweight. Aluminum, as a light metal, has a density about one third of that of steel as well as good conductivity, thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance, and besides, the aluminum alloy features a machinability better than that of traditional metal materials as well as a low melting point, allowing for an aluminum recycling rate in the whole process of use and recycling higher

1

a Application of Aluminum Alloy Composites in Automotive Lightweight. Zhu Zegang. Light Metals [2011]. No. 10 Issue).

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than 90%; therefore, aluminum alloy is the most ideal substitution for steel to realize automobile lightweight. Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was established in September, 2019 by Aluminum Corporation of China (CHINALCO) and Chongqing Municipal People’s Government and put into official operation in November, 2020. It is registered in Jiulongpo District, Chongqing with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, of which CHINALCO takes a share of 65% and Chongqing Municipal People’s Government takes a share of 35%. Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. has set up a series of subsidiaries including Southwest Aluminum (Group) Co., Ltd., Northeast Light Alloy Co., Ltd., Northwest Aluminum Corporation Limited, Chalco Ruimin Co., Ltd., Chalco Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd., Chalco Sapa Co., Ltd., Chinalco Luoyang Henan Aluminum Processing Co., Ltd., Chinalco Aluminum Colored Aluminum Technology Co., Ltd., Chinalco Shenyang Non-ferrous Metals Processing Co., Ltd. and Chinalco Materials Application Research Institute Co.,Ltd., and also R&D and production bases in Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Fujian, Sichuan, Henan, Guizhou, Liaoning, and Beijing. It is equipped with internationally advanced production lines for fusion casting, hot continuous rolling, cold continuous rolling, plate of moderate thickness, forging, extrusion and other processes, and is mainly engaged in the production of aluminum and aluminum alloy plates, strips, foils, tubes, bars, profiles and forgings. Besides, it boasts leading technological R&D and innovation strength in China. Now, it is the largest aluminum processing enterprise in China with products exported to more than 40 countries and regions. (2)

Status-quo of carbon emission in aluminum processing industry

At present, only Southwest Aluminum (Group) Co., Ltd. and Southwest Aluminum Business Unit under the Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. are included in the pilot carbon market in Chongqing but not included in the national carbon market, and other subsidiaries are not included in the Chongqing and national pilot carbon market. According to statistics, the carbon emissions of Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. from 2018 to 2020 were 1,153,800 tCO2 e, 1,177,100 tCO2 e and 1,188,200 tCO2 e respectively. The carbon footprint of aluminum products manufactured by Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is mainly composed of the carbon footprint of raw materials and the carbon emission from production. The carbon footprint of raw materials refers to the carbon emission intensity in the whole process of bauxite mining, alumina production and aluminum electrolysis production; carbon emissions from production include carbon emissions from fuel, heat and electricity used in aluminum ingot remelting and processing. It is calculated that the carbon footprint intensity of the aluminum products of the Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is 11.81 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum, including 1.05 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum contributed by production, and 10.76 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum contributed by raw materials. If calculated by product category, the carbon emission intensity in extrusion process is about 5.69 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum (calculated according to the data of Northwest Aluminum Corporation Limited), and the carbon emission intensity in rolling

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process is about 0.79 tCO2 e/ton of aluminum (calculated according to the data of Chalco Ruimin Co., Ltd.), as shown in Fig. 4.28. The analysis of carbon emissions in main nodes of aluminum production is shown in Table 4.3: According to the calculation process, first he carbon emission intensity of different raw materials are analyzed, as shown in Table 4.4:

Fig. 4.28 Carbon emissions in main production processes of aluminum

Table 4.3 Calculation of carbon emissions in main nodes of aluminum production Node

Process of carbon emission

Carbon emission (tCO2 e/ton of aluminum)

Proportion (%)

1

Alumina sintering process

3.69

21.6

Alumina Bayer process

1.2

7.0

Prebaked anode

0.42

2.5

2

Electrolytic tank

9.96

58.3

3

Carbon production

0.76

4.4

4

Aluminum processing

1.05

6.1

Table 4.4 Carbon footprint of different raw materials

Usage scenario

Carbon emission intensity (tCO2 e/ton of aluminum)

Raw material

General virgin aluminum ingot

Green aluminum ingot

Recycled aluminum

14.8

3.05

0

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Fig. 4.29 Proportion of carbon emission sources in virgin aluminum production

The carbon emission intensity of a process mainly depends on the yield of processed materials and the carbon emission of energy used in the process. Generally speaking, for each 1% increase in the comprehensive yield of process, the carbon emission will decrease by 1%. Besides, increasing the use of clean electricity in a process can significantly reduce the carbon emission of this process. (3)

Phased implementation plan for carbon emission reduction of aluminum industry

CO2 emissions from virgin aluminum production in the aluminum industry account for about 93.9% of the total, in which the CO2 emission of energy consumption takes the largest proportion up to 77.5% (of which, CO2 emissions from electric energy consumption account for about 64.3%, and CO2 emissions from thermal energy consumption account for 13.1%), as shown in Fig. 4.29. According to the data of Antaike, the total carbon emission from one ton of electrolytic aluminum produced by thermal power is about 13 tCO2 e, including 11.2 tCO2 e in power generation and 1.8 tCO2 e in water electrolysis; while the total carbon emission from one ton of electrolytic aluminum produced by hydropower is down to 1.8 tCO2 e, all of which come from water electrolysis process. The carbon emission of aluminum production by hydropower is 86% less than that of aluminum production by thermal power. Therefore, virgin aluminum production by green and clean energy has a great potential for carbon emission reduction. On June 8, 2021, at the fourth social responsibility work conference and the fifth carbon reduction activity of CHINALCO, CHINALCO released the CHINALCO Action Plan on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality, which clearly stated that CHINALCO would strive to achieve carbon peak by 2025 and 40% carbon emission reduction by 2035. By 2020, CHINALCO realized an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 4.46 million tons, in which the electrolytic aluminum produced by green energy accounts for 49.98%. Considering that the proportion of electrolytic aluminum produced by green energy in Europe and the United States is 75–90%,

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Table 4.5 Analysis of carbon emission reduction potential of different technical routes No. Technical route

Emission reduction potential Remark

1

Strengthening of carbon asset High management

Management measures

2

Promotion and application of Medium new energy-saving technology and equipment

Technical measures/carbon emission reduction technologies

3

Phase-out of some backward production capacities

Structural e adjustment

4

Use of clean energy in power Huge grid

Green energy

5

Increase of proportion of recycled aluminum

High

Structural e adjustment

6

Zero carbon emission technology

High

Carbon emission reduction technology

7

Negative carbon emission project development

High

Carbon emission reduction technology

8

Energy efficiency increase

Low

Technical measures

High

and assuming that the proportion of electrolytic aluminum produced by green energy is required to achieve 75% for the carbon neutrality of CHINALCO, the emission reduction potential of different technical routes is analyzed, as shown in Table 4.5: (4) Basic path for low-carbon transformation of aluminum processing industry It is analyzed that the “key” for carbon emission reduction of the aluminum industry lies in electrolytic aluminum, and the key to the carbon emission reduction of electrolytic aluminum lies in the use of clean energy in the power grid. The paths for low-carbon transformation in the aluminum processing industry are described below. Vigorously promote the structure adjustment of upstream raw materials and develop circular economy According to the calculated carbon footprint of aluminum products manufactured by Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd., the carbon footprint of raw materials accounts for 91%, indicating that the key to the carbon emission reduction is the reduction of carbon footprint of raw materials. To reduce the carbon footprint of raw materials, the following measures are recommended: (1) increase the proportion of green raw materials, and especially, increase the application of clean energy such as hydroenergy, solar energy and wind energy in the production of virgin aluminum ingots and other raw materials; (2), develop clustered industries, promote the industrial agglomeration development, reduce carbon emissions from logistics and transport, promote electrolytic aluminum alloying and reduce secondary remelting to reduce energy consumption, metal loss and carbon emissions caused by secondary remelting, deploy the industry in clean energy concentration areas, and promote energy cascade utilization, waste recycling and pollutant centralized disposal; (3),

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improve the recycled aluminum recycling system, develop circular economy, establish a complete aluminum scrap recycling channel, equip all necessary recycling equipment, increase the digestion capacity of internal and purchased aluminum scrap, focus on the research and development of the aluminum scrap grading recycling technology, and explore the feasibility of “upgrading” recycling; (4), seize the lowcarbon development opportunity to promote end-use carbon emission reduction, and continue to promote the application of aluminum in aerospace, national defense and military industry, new energy, transport, building structure, packaging, electronics, catalysis, medicine, energy conservation, environmental protection and other fields; vigorously promote the application of new aluminum materials in the fields such as automobile lightweight, aluminum furniture and aluminum conductor materials, and actively promote the strategies including “substitution of aluminum for steel”, “substitution of aluminum for wood” and “application of aluminum for plastic saving”, so as to maximize the social benefits of aluminum in carbon emission reduction. Comprehensively promote the energy-saving transformation and the application of clean energy to reduce carbon emissions of aluminum production According to the calculated carbon footprint of aluminum products manufactured by Chinalco Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd., the carbon emissions in the processing process account for about 9%, which mainly come from the use of purchased power and heat and the combustion of natural gas. Therefore, the energy-saving transformation of aluminum production and the application of clean energy are very important. To reduce carbon emissions in processing process, the following measures are recommended: (1), continuously optimize the product process to continuously improve the comprehensive yield of products and reduce the energy waste in the process; (2), strengthen equipment management and improve equipment operation efficiency; (3), enhance automation, informatization and intelligence, implement special energy-saving technology transformation, promote waste heat utilization and water saving technology, and develop projects such as waste heat and pressure utilization, biomass energy, air compressor transformation, motor frequency conversion transformation, etc.; (4), adjust the energy structure, increase the proportion of clean energy, and rationally deploy distributed energy such as wind energy and solar energy; (5), strengthen the energy-saving review of fixed asset investment projects, strictly implement the energy assessment, environmental assessment and carbon assessment systems for new projects, M&A projects and other incremental projects, and promote energy conservation and carbon emission reduction from the source and the whole process to avoid a sharp rise in carbon emissions; (6), carry out clean production audit and energy audit, reduce the environmental impact of the whole product life cycle, reduce the raw material consumption and energy consumption of enterprises, improve the use efficiency of materials and energy, investigate possible problems, tap the energy-saving potential, put forward practical energy-saving measures and implement them.

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Carry out carbon asset management and lay out the carbon market in advance With the deepening of global climate governance, energy conservation and emission reduction, and the expanding of global influence of carbon trading, carbon assets have attracted more concerns. How to obtain more carbon assets has become one of the important tasks for the future development of enterprises. As an important policy instrument to achieve carbon neutrality, carbon trading provides a way for enterprises to obtain more carbon assets. For this purpose, enterprises shall, first, gradually build a team which has been professional trained and has corresponding professional knowledge and excellent quality; secondly, make a layout in advance, investigate the situation of carbon emissions of the enterprise, and obtain sufficient carbon quotas after being included in the carbon market; third, adopt the contract energy management mode, actively develop projects such as BAPV projects, distributed wind power project, waste heat and residual pressure utilization projects, biomass energy projects, motor frequency conversion transformation projects, etc., and actively develop voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction certification projects such as wind power projects, PV power projects, forest carbon sink projects, etc., to reserve enough carbon assets. Make research on negative carbon technology to move towards carbon neutrality Carbon neutrality of enterprise will be impossible only by carbon market as well as energy conservation and carbon reduction. The carbon market is for enterprise to obtain more carbon quotas but not to achieve carbon emission reduction goal. Once reduced by energy conservation and emission reduction to a certain extent, the carbon emission becomes hard to further reduce again. Therefore, the negative carbon technology will be the main path for enterprises to achieve carbon neutrality. At present, there are mainly two kinds of negative carbon technologies, namely, negative emission technology (NET) and carbon capture, utilization and storage technology (CCUS). Enterprises are recommended to focus on the development of negative carbon technology in the future, and seize the opportunity to deploy negative carbon technology by means of investment cooperation. Develop carbon finance to promote the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals Carbon finance generally refers to all financial activities that serve to limit greenhouse gas emissions, including direct investment and financing, carbon index trading and bank loans, which is mainly intended to guide the flow of funds to the development of carbon emission reduction technologies. Carbon financial instruments are divided into three types, namely transaction type, financing type and support type, and mainly include carbon trading, CCER, carbon futures, carbon forward, carbon swap, carbon option, carbon bond, carbon pledge/mortgage, carbon fund/trust, carbon asset buyback, carbon asset custody, carbon index, carbon insurance, etc. With the development of the national carbon market, enterprises can apply for carbon emission reduction loans in a timely manner against the PBOC’s carbon

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emission reduction support instruments for construction projects such as clean energy projects and energy conservation and carbon reduction projects, so as to reduce the financing cost of enterprises and realize the mutual promotion and cooperative development of carbon emission reduction with corporate investment and financing. (5) Conclusions and recommendations In March, 2021, the International Aluminum Institute (IAI) issued the Aluminum Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathway 2050, which proposed the global aluminum industry greenhouse gas emission reduction target. With reference to this target, and in combination with the current CO2 emission status of China’s aluminum industry as well as the non-ferrous industry goal proposed by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA) to peak carbon emission by 2025 and achieve 40% carbon emission reduction by 2040, the low-carbon transformation of China aluminum industry, which though has taken measures to control the output of electrolytic aluminum and phase out backward production capacity, cannot be achieved only by capacity regulation and technology upgrading. In order to achieve the carbon emission reduction target, the following measures are recommended for the aluminum industry: (1) Optimize the industrial layout, create a clustered industrial base, promote the industrial agglomeration development, reduce carbon emissions in the process of logistics transportation and metal remelting, realize the optimal combination of electrolytic aluminum plants, casting plants and aluminum processing enterprises in the production of aluminum materials and final products, and reduce the burning loss and energy consumption by increasing the proportion of direct molten aluminum casting and rolling; (2) Create a closed-loop aluminum scrap recycling system, and promote the replacement of virgin aluminum with recycled aluminum. Promote the establishment of a sound national resource recycling system, solve the problems in waste recycling in society, improve the recycled metal recycling system, increase investment in research and development of recycled non-ferrous metals, improve the quality of recycled aluminum and avoid degrading recycling; (3) Optimize the energy structure, increase the proportion of clean energy in the aluminum industry, urge enterprises to actively adjust the energy consumption structure, and improve the role of the market mechanism in emission reduction (for example, incorporate the aluminum industry into the carbon trading market as soon as possible), improve the certified emission reduction (CCER) methodology in the aluminum industry, and restart the CCER system as soon as possible. 4.2.4.4

Low-Carbon Development of Auto Plastics

Since the 1950s, the output of polymer materials has exceeded 8 billion tons. Polymer material has extended to almost all aspects of human life, and embraces a growing demand [45]. As the most widely used polymer material, plastic is widely applied

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in the automotive industry because of its strong plasticity, light weight and high recycling rate. More and more plastics are used in interior trim, exterior trim and functional structural parts of vehicle [46–48]. According to statistics, the average consumption of plastic on each self-produced vehicle in China is about 80 kg, while that on medium and high-grade vehicles in developed countries is 100–120 kg. In recent years when lightweight has been a development trend of the automotive industry, the application proportion of plastics in vehicle is gradually increasing, which, however, also brings about a large number of waste auto plastics to be treated. With the increase of plastic production year by year, more and more waste plastics are produced and have become an important source of environmental pollution and a key problem of resource recycling due to their poor degradability and recyclability. Its negative impact on the environment and organisms is growing, and especially, the concern on the ecological environmental problems caused by plastic waste, marine plastics, micro plastics, etc. is increasing [49–51]. Global warming has consistently been the focus of research and attention in recent years. The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 further promoted countries around the world to set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, and China has also set the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [52, 53] in 2020. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a standardized environmental impact assessment method, which can scientifically and comprehensively analyze various environmental impact problems, including ecotoxicity, resource consumption, global warming, etc. [54, 55]. The calculation theory of the carbon footprint of products (CFP) is in essence a LCA method based on single environmental impact category, that is, calculating the sum of all greenhouse gas emissions and removals within the boundary of the whole system, which is expressed by carbon dioxide equivalent, and can be referenced in ISO14067-2018. The research shows that automobile lightweight can effectively reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions. Specifically, each 10% decrease of vehicle mass will bring a fuel consumption decrease of 6–8%, and a carbon emission decrease of 4–10%. At present, the automobile lightweight strategy of substitution of plastic for steel has brought a good carbon reduction effect to the vehicle, as detailed below: First, from the perspective of carbon emission of materials per unit weight, the carbon footprint of most plastics is far lower than that of metals, and in the production stage, plastics produce lower carbon emissions than metals and other traditional automotive materials [56–59]; Second, from the perspective of vehicle operation, statistics show that every 100 kg of vehicle weight reduction will enable a reduction of fuel consumption per 100 km by 0.4 L, and a CO2 emission reduction by 1 kg. The plastic reduces the weight of the vehicle, and accordingly, the energy consumption in the vehicle operation stage, thus helping to reduce the carbon emission in the operation stage [59–61]; Third, from the perspective of material recycling stage, most nonferrous metals are recycled by remelting method, while most plastics are recycled by machines, and the machine consumes less energy than the remelting process, thus helping to reduce carbon emissions in the recycling stage [62–64]. At present, most of the raw materials of polymer materials are fossil-based materials. Therefore, most studies on carbon emission reduction of polymer materials are

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focused first on the adoption of better waste disposal methods (such as substitution of recycled plastics for primary plastics to reduce carbon emissions), and then on substitution of bio-based materials for fossil-based materials to reduce environmental impact [65–74]. The life cycle of plastic recycling starts from raw material, and the links involved are as follows (listed in sequence): raw material processing—product manufacturing—product packaging, transport and sales—use, reuse and maintenance by customers—recycling or treatment/disposal. Now the economic model of auto plastics is developing towards circular economy. In the future, it is more possible to convert waste auto plastics into recyclable resources to make the plastics fully recycled and realize low-carbon sustainable development of vehicle materials [72–78]. Besides, plastics will play an important role in the automobile lightweight and low-carbon transformation in the future, and the proportion of plastics in automotive materials will gradually increase, which also indicates that new environmentally friendly polymer materials with excellent performance and low carbon content are the development direction of auto plastics in the future. Based on the trend analysis above, it is predicted that the following carbon emission reduction pathways of polymer materials will be possible: 1. Material substitution: ➀ From the perspective of carbon emission of resin raw materials, use plastic raw materials with low carbon emission to replace those with high carbon emission, which is expected to be completed from 2025 to 2035 if recycled plastics are used; ➁ Use non fossil-based materials to replace fossil-based materials, such as bio-based polymer materials and new energycarbon source coupled polymer materials, which is expected to be completed from 2035 to 2050; ➂ Make research on near zero carbon polymer materials and negative carbon polymer materials: develop near zero carbon polymer materials and negative carbon polymer materials through technological innovation to assist in the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals through carbon emission reduction and carbon offset, which is expected to be completed from 2040 to 2060; 2. Recycling technology optimization: ➀ Expansion of recycling scope: expand the recycling scope of waste plastics through unorganized recycling of plastic wastes in rivers, lakes and seas, which is expected to be completed from 2035 to 2050; ➁ Upgrading of recycling technology route: transform from traditional physical recycling to chemical recycling, which is expected to be completed from 2035 to 2050; and transform from basis material recycling to additive recycling, which is expected to be completed from 2050 to 2060. At present, the plastics used on vehicles mainly include polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE), polyamide (PA) and other polymer materials, of which PP is mainly applied for bumpers, instrument panels, door inner trim panels, etc.; PE is mainly applied for inner guard plates, fuel tanks, wipers, etc.; PA is mainly applied for gears, belt pulleys, water pump impeller, etc.; These three materials account for more than 70% of the total amount of auto plastics used, and therefore are selected as the research objects., with 1 kg of modified plastic product selected as the functional

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unit, and cradle-to-gate selected as the system boundary, as shown in Figs. 4.30 and 4.31. According to ISO14067, GWP 100a is selected as the environmental impact index, and the model is built based on above-mentioned carbon emission reduction analysis and trend prediction. The carbon emission intensity of PP, PE and PA modified plastics in the next 40 years is simulated and evaluated, as shown in Table 4.6.

Fig. 4.30 System boundary of primary and recycled modified plastic products

Fig. 4.31 Comparison of carbon emission of Covestro’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint

Material substitution—recycled plastics

1 kg PP modified plastic

71

87

/

100

100

100

100

Path

Parameter

Carbon emission intensity of PP modified plastics

Carbon emission intensity of HDPE modified plastics

PA6

Average of modified plastics

79

79

2025

2021

Year

59

67

51

58

Material substitution—recycled plastics

2035

45

56

37

42

Material substitution—bio-based plastics + recycled materials

2040

Table 4.6 Prediction of carbon emission intensity trend of modified plastics from 2021 to 2060

29

30

29

29

Material substitution—bio-based plastics + recycled materials

2050

15

13

14

17

Near zero carbon materials and negative carbon materials + recycled materials

2060

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4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality

169

To sum up, low-carbon transformation is an important development direction for the automotive industry in recent years and also in the future. China still falls far behind of the developed countries in the application amount of plastics on vehicle, which also indicates that plastics have a wide application prospect in China’s automotive industry, and that the carbon emission reduction of auto plastics is a sustained and long-term process. Therefore, the carbon emission reduction pathways of auto plastics shall be selected in combination with the actual development of the automotive industry and the relevant technologies of the plastic industry to ensure step-by-step achievement of the carbon emission reduction goal. Based on the analysis of the existing industry technology and the prediction for the future, the following measures are recommended: (1) continue to strengthen the evaluation of the carbon reduction effect of “substitution of plastics for steel” strategy to further reduce carbon emissions in the manufacturing and use stages through lightweight; (2) use recycled plastics to gradually replace the primary plastics, and then use bio-based materials to replace fossil-based materials to further reduce the carbon emissions of the automotive industry; (3) develop near zero carbon materials and negative carbon materials to promote the achievement of carbon neutrality in the automotive industry. Now that carbon emission is not a mandatory requirement in China, it is also recommended that the state should introduce relevant regulations to implement mandatory pilot for carbon emission reduction of materials in the automotive industry, so as to give fully play to the role of recycled materials in carbon emission reduction of the automotive industry. Considering that the recycled materials are widely sourced and not even in quality, it is recommended that the state should issue relevant policies to require recycled plastics to be subject to the qualification of professional laboratories and qualification agencies, so as to promote the safe use of recycled materials in the automotive industry. It is also recommended that the relevant national departments reward the enterprises that have made great contributions or outstanding achievements in the carbon emission reduction of automotive materials to encourage or stimulate the recycling of automotive materials, and meanwhile, increase the support and subsidies for the research and development of lightweight technology of automotive materials. In addition, automobile lightweight also depends on the availability of the leading new composite material production process and technology in the plastic industry. Therefore, the state is also required to build relevant platforms, strengthen the cooperation between plastic enterprises and automobile enterprises, and accelerate the R&D and production of new auto plastic products.

4.2.4.5

Low-Carbon Transformation of Covestro Materials

As a response to the policies on carbon emission management at home and abroad, the whole life cycle of automobile products will be gradually incorporated into lowcarbon management by automobile enterprises, and then, carbon emission related indicators will be gradually introduced into all kinds of automobile products. In the

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next five years with the in-depth implementation of the low-carbon policy, calculation of carbon emission reduction merits and identification of key technology paths will become compulsory courses for material manufacturers serving the automotive industry. Covestro, as a supplier of polymerization materials, has formulated scientific carbon emission targets and specific roadmap based on its characteristics to develop and cultivate low-carbon technologies, and is committed to developing and providing “low-carbon” products for automobile manufacturers. In addition, Covestro has also positively explored the possibility of establishment of a carbon neutral management system covering the whole supply chain jointly with upstream and downstream enterprises of the automotive industry chain, and the adoption of digital transformation to empower and follow the carbon risk management. The focus of this section is to discuss low-carbon materials of polycarbonate, passenger car coatings, polyurethane materials and adhesives, as well as the material solutions of relevant carbon emission reduction processes. (1) Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint Covestro has developed the world’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint and has put it into commercial production. The comparison of carbon emission of this product with existing Makrolon® polycarbonate is shown in Fig. 4.31. The key of Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint lies in raw materials and energy consumption. For the raw material, the partially biomasscontained material is used, which is produced based on the mass balance method (it is a chain of custody method that allows fossil materials and alternative materials to be mixed in production, but separated in the carbon register, so that materials can be tracked through the value chain and alternative materials such as bio-based raw materials can be allocated to the selected end products), and in which traditional fossil materials are replaced by biological wastes, so that the products manufactured from this material boasts a substantially lower carbon emission than those products manufactured from fossil-based materials. For the energy consumption, “green electricity” is used in production. Covestro’s production base in Uerdingen, Germany has obtained the “Traceability Certificate of Affordable Grid-connected Green Electricity” from the German PV power stations, and the green electricity will be distributed to meet specific power needs of processes crucial to the production of polycarbonate, including the electrolytic hydrogen production process. In short, by introducing renewable electricity into the production process and using partially biomass-contained material, Covestro’s Makrolon® RE polycarbonate achieves zero carbon emissions from cradle to gate*. (* The life cycle assessment from cradle to gate covers all stages from raw material refining (cradle) to transportation out of the factory gate to the customer, which is based on ISO14040/14044 and has been certified by TÜV Rheinland, and in which the supply chain data is used, and the carbon absorption of organisms as well as the use of renewable energy in Covestro’s production process are considered.)

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The partially biomass-contained material mentioned above includes phenol and acetone produced based on the mass balance method. By these two materials, Bisphenol A (BPA) can be synthesized, which is an essential monomer for polycarbonate polymerization, with the chemical reaction formula shown in Fig. 4.32: Then, through further reaction of BPA with phosgene, the polycarbonate is polymerized. Since biomass materials are used in the monomer molecular synthesis stage (molecular level), the macro performance of the polymer has no difference from that of the polymer based on traditional fossil materials, as shown in Table 4.7. The processing conditions of Makrolon® RE polycarbonate and existing Makrolon® polycarbonate are the same, as shown in Table 4.8.

Fig. 4.32 Chemical reaction formula for the synthesis of Bisphenol A from phenol and acetone

Table 4.7 Comparison of physical properties of Covestro’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint Makrolon® 2807

Makrolon® 2807 RE

Performance

Test conditions

Unit

Melt volume-flow rate

300 °C/1.2 kg

cm3 /10 min ISO 1133 9.0

9.0

Tensile modulus

1 mm/min

MPa

ISO 2400 527-1, -2

2400

Yield stress

50 mm/min

MPa

ISO 66 527-1, -2

66

Yield strain

50 mm/min

%

ISO 6.1 527-1, -2

6.1

Izod notched impact strength

23 °C/3 mm

kJ/m2

Basis: ISO 180/A

a

Standard

70Pa

70P

P indicates partial break

Table 4.8 Comparison of processing performance of Covestro’s first Makrolon® RE polycarbonate with zero carbon footprint Recommended forming process parameters

Unit

Makrolon® 2807

Makrolon® 2807 RE

Standard melt temperature

°C

300

300

Mold temperature

°C

80–120

80–120

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(2) Application of recycled polycarbonate in automotive industry Covestro has also been devoted in the recycling process at the end of the automobile life cycle, using certified recycled products (PCR materials and PIR materials) to develop direct alternative products based on recycled materials. Polycarbonate used for auto lamps features high purity and easy processing. Polycarbonate can be recycled by strictly selecting the source of recovery materials, and by adding virgin materials into the recovered polycarbonate, the PCR material is produced, which can then be down-graded and used as raw materials for the production of notebook computers, printers, chargers and other electronic equipment. Through life cycle assessment of finished products, it shows that the PCR polycarbonate with a maximum content of 75% allows for a carbon emission up to 50% lower than virgin material. Besides, PCR polycarbonate’s impact resistance, heat resistance, thin-wall design capability and flame retardancy are as excellent as those virgin materials. For example, Bayblend® FR3040EV (PC/ABS alloy) can be applied to the battery base of electric vehicles, and its corresponding product containing PCR material is Bayblend® FR3040 R35. The comparison of those two materials in physical properties and processing performance is shown in Tables 4.9 and 4.10. Table 4.9 Comparison of physical properties of Covestro’s PC/ABS product and its corresponding product containing PCR material Performance Test conditions

Unit

Standard Bayblend® FR3040EV Bayblend® FR3040 R35

Melt 240 °C/5 kg cm3 /10 min ISO volume-flow 1133 rate

17

18

Tensile modulus

1 mm/min

MPa

ISO 527–1, -2

2700

2550

Yield stress

50 mm/min MPa

ISO 527–1, -2

65

65

Yield strain

50 mm/min %

ISO 527–1, -2

4.0

4.2

Stress to break

50 mm/min MPa

ISO 527–1, -2

50

49

Izod notched 23 °C impact strength

kJ/m2

ISO 180/A

30

35

Vicat softening temperature

°C

ISO 180/A

108

105

50 N, 120 °C/h

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Table 4.10 Comparison of processing performance of Covestro’s PC/ABS product and its corresponding product containing PCR material Recommended forming process parameters

Unit

Bayblend® FR3040EV

Bayblend® FR3040 R35

Melt temperature

°C

240–270

250–290

Mold temperature

°C

60–90

70–100

From the comparison of PC/ABS product with its corresponding product containing PCR material in physical property and processing performance, the product containing PCR material may involve certain changes compared with the original product, and the main reasons for these changes are as follows: 1. PCR material will be partially degraded during use and recycling. Taking the lamp materials as an example, most of the recovered lamp materials are dismantled from end-of-life vehicles, which are inevitably degraded somehow after long-term use (such as repeatedly heating and cooling by the light source) and long-term ultraviolet radiation (aging). In addition, some lamps may be coated, and during the processing of the recovered material, those coatings need to be removed by physical and chemical means before shredding and cleaning, and in this process, the recovered lamp material will also be partially degraded. Finally, a considerable degree of degradation will occur when the shredded material is re-pelletized. 2. The source of PCR materials fluctuates greatly. Polycarbonate recycling enterprises may recover materials from different application sources, such as lamp, plate, housing, disc and etc., and generally classify these recovered materials according to the range of melt index. The melt index can reflect the average molecular weight level of recovered materials, but their application sources can rarely be distinguished. In addition, the melt index can reflect neither the molecular weight distribution nor the type and content of different additives of the recovered material, and therefore, it is often the case that the performance of products manufactured from the recycled material fluctuates more compared with the products manufactured from virgin materials. The composite made of polycarbonate (PC) also has excellent recyclability. By cutting the prepreg scraps, product processing scraps and scrapped parts (PIR) into a certain size via second pelleting, and then blending it with new PC pellets and other additives for mixed pelleting, the short carbon fiber reinforced PC pellets can be obtained. This kind of pellet may show a unique pattern like natural marble after processing on the part surface. As a composite material, it can not only help reduce the weight of the product greatly, but also bring more design space and inspiration. GAC’s electric concept car ENO.146 is an example which applies Covestro’s PIR “marble” plate for the seat back. If the recycling with chemical reaction (monomer source) is referred to as “chemical recycling” and the recycling without chemical reaction as “physical recycling”,

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it can be found that the chemical recycling has little impact on the performance of the final product but costs more, and physical recycling has a relatively large impact on the performance of the final product and requires adjustment of formula or change of application scenarios. (3)

Bio-based coating and new process coating system

Passenger car coating refers to the coating applied to the body and parts of various passenger cars, which can be divided according to the application scenario as Auto OEM coating and refinish coating. According to industry estimates, the total amount of passenger car coatings in China will reach about 270,000 tons in 2021 (excluding CED). China is then become the largest producer and consumer of passenger car coatings in the world and will see stable growth in production and consumption of passenger car coatings in the future. In face of such a large market size, if the low carbon technology can be applied, the carbon emission reduction will be very remarkable. At present, the research and development of domestic and foreign enterprises in carbon emission reduction is mainly focused on the following: Type I: use more renewable raw materials to replace petroleum-based materials to achieve the purpose of carbon emission reduction, for which the renewable raw materials available for use include here include biomass, waste, and even CO2 . If the biomass is used, the material can be divided according to the possibility of direct testing in the materials into (partially) bio-based materials and mass-balanced materials (as described earlier), between which the (partially) bio-based materials allows for determination of the content of contained biomass by tracking C14. Taking the two-component polyurethane clear coat for automobile as an example, the partially bio-based material can be selected as the curing agent in the coating, with part of its raw materials obtained from renewable plants, such as corn. Compared with the petroleum-based material of same type, the partially bio-based material, with the excellent performance not affected, allows for a carbon emission of 30% lower and less dependence on non-renewable resources such as petroleum. At the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in 2021, Covestro, Voyah and PPG jointly launched the partially bio-based clear coat solution, which have been put into use. For massbalanced materials, the supplier is required to provide a content report, which cannot be tested directly through C14. At present, we can find that companies with leadership in the industrial chain have attempt to apply such new material. Type II: apply more lean processes for carbon emission reduction. For example, (1) simplify processes, to reduce carbon emissions. Some lean coating processes (such as b1b2) are derived from this concept. Even some pioneers in the automotive industry have begun to combine plastic parts and metal bodies in the same painting line, which can reduce CO2 emission significantly compared to traditional process. (2) reduce the energy consumption of a process for carbon emission reduction, for example, use a low temperature curing coating that can reduce energy consumption by lowering the oven temperature. The current technology allows the coating to cure

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at 100 °C or even below, which will make remarkable contributions to the energy conservation and carbon emission reduction of automobile enterprises in the process of vehicle body coating. (4) MDI with zero carbon footprint: a kind of low-carbon PU material and adhesive for automotive industry Covestro has started to provide customers with a kind of MDI (methylenediphenyl diisocyanate) with zero carbon footprint, which is applied with the alternative material based on plant waste through the ISCC PLUS certified mass balance method, thus achieving zero carbon emissions from cradle to gate. This new MDI can be widely used in the fields of construction, cold chain and automobile. Currently, the production of MDI with zero carbon footprint and its precursors are undertaken by the Caojing Integrated Production Base in Shanghai, the Krefeld-Uerdingen Base in Germany and the Antwerp Base in Belgium, all of which have passed the ISCC PLUS certification. By applying the mass balance method (as described above), alternative raw materials are introduced into the industrial chain, and meanwhile the existing efficient chemical production infrastructure with economies of scale are fully used, so as to accelerate the transformation of the chemical industry to a circular economy. Covestro’s MDI with zero carbon footprint is a directly applicable solution, that is to say, customers can apply it in production immediately without changing the process flow, and the final product quality will not be affected. MDI is the main raw material of polyurethane, which is widely applied for production of instrument panels, trunk floors, headlining, seats and armrests, and for filling of cavities. The vigorous development of new energy vehicles also poses higher requirements for the lightweight and performance of battery packs. The battery cover solution using composite polyurethane materials instead of metal materials can not only meet the performance requirements for high temperature resistance and flame retardancy, but also greatly reduce the weight of the product. In addition to the “visible” exterior body and interior environmentally-friendly materials, attention should also be paid to the low-carbon application of “invisible” interior materials. Similarly, by applying the mass balance method, Covestro has successfully provided the world’s leading adhesive manufacturers with low-carbon footprint polyurethane materials prepared from renewable materials (such as plant waste, waste oil and vegetable oil) for the production of polyurethane reactive hot melt adhesive. In addition, the water-based polyurethane resin products based on bio-based materials are also worth exploring and researching in the future. According to the joint study and prediction of Material Economics and several EU climate organizations in 2018, if the production of major industrial raw materials is introduced into the circular economy model, carbon emissions can be reduced by 56% in 2050, and the two strategies, including material recycling and material use efficiency, contribute nearly 80% of the total carbon emission reduction, both of which, however, depends on proper material selection. Material recycling strategy refers to the increase of material recycling to reduce the input of new materials; For example, select recycled materials to avoid the use of new materials, which

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will also create market demand for recycled materials at the same time. Material use efficiency strategy refers to the reduction of use of materials required for each unit product in the manufacturing process; For example, select lighter and stronger materials, or materials with higher preparation efficiency. Circular business model refers to the use of changes in business model to reduce the amount of products required to meet specific needs, such as product servitization with the main benefits coming from changes in business model. Covestro’s vision is to fully embrace circular economy. For this reason, Covestro is striving to practice the circular economy concept in R&D, design, production, sales and after-sales service of product. In conclusion, polymers will continue to play an important role in energy conservation and emission reduction of both conventional fuel vehicles and battery-based new energy vehicles in the future. Automobile enterprises will also put forward to polymer manufacturers more requirements for polymers of zero carbon footprint or low carbon footprint, and polymer manufacturers are required to further reduce the cost of low-carbon products through innovation to make the products more popularized on a large scale.

4.2.5 Path 5: Production Digitalization (1) Background Currently with the increasing demand for automobiles, China has become the largest automobile producer and seller in the world. The automotive industry is also one of the key carbon consumption sectors in China, and how to achieve accurate low-carbon control and management has become important issue facing the whole automotive industry. Industrial digitalization refers to the use of new-generation information technologies such as big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence to connect human, machine, material, process, environment and other elements involved in the industry together and to realize the optimal allocation of resources in the whole industry chain and value chain through carbon data quantification, carbon data optimization and intelligent control. It is an important foundation of the new industrial revolution and a necessary transformation path for the low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry. For the low-carbon transformation of automotive industry and parts industry, four main paths, including transformation of energy structure from high-carbon energy structure to clean energy structure, transformation of energy management from extensive management to precise management, building of process low-carbon optimization capacity, and building of low-carbon product innovation capacity, are available, as shown in Fig. 4.33. Since the clean energy has been extensively discussed in the

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Fig. 4.33 Main paths for low-carbon transformation of automotive industry

previous chapters., this section will focus on analyzing the role of industrial digitalization technology in the low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry from the latter three paths. (2) Industrial digitalization technology will promote the low-carbon transformation of automotive industry Digitalization technology empowers “precise energy control” to ensure quantification and traceability The rational use of energy not only affects the normal operation of production, but also plays a very important role in the effective guarantee of product quality and the gradual reduction of energy conservation and carbon reduction indicators. At present, the energy management mode of the automotive industry and parts industry still faces a series of problems, such as manual data collection, complex analysis and sorting, delayed event processing and extensive management process. The industrial digitalization technology, through the deep integration of big data, cloud computing, industrial Internet and other new-generation information technologies with energy management, allows for quantifiable, optimized and intelligent closed-loop energy control. As shown in Fig. 4.34, digitalization technology and energy management form a double helix pattern, further promoting the low-carbon transformation of automotive industry and parts industry. As shown in Fig. 4.35, energy quantification refers to collection and monitoring of the data of water, electricity, gas and other energies through the empowerment of industrial IoT, industrial Internet and other technologies, so as to realize real-time alarm, and through the application of data statistics method including successive period comparison and comparison with the same period, realize the closed-loop energy control from planning to statistics and then to assessment. Energy optimization refers to the use of artificial intelligence, big data and other technologies to optimize models and algorithms based on monitored data, so as to realize the real-time optimized operation of the energy system, reduce energy consumption and improve carbon efficiency. Intelligent energy control refers to the application of digital twin, remote control and other technologies to intelligently control equipment parameters or process parameters of the factory based on the energy optimization analysis results,

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Fig. 4.34 Double helix model of industrial digitalization and energy management

and finally complete the comprehensive balancing and scheduling optimization of energy in key links. To sum up, industrial digitalization technology is able to record enterprise energy data, enabling more accurate energy control and carbon emission accounting. Besides, it can be combined with blockchain and other technologies to form a real, effective and tamper-proof energy (carbon) data link and build an enterprise energy (carbon) digital credit system. Digitalization technology empowers low-carbon production to ensure optimization and popularization With the continuous promotion of intelligent manufacturing, the production lines of the automotive industry and parts industry are becoming more and more advanced, and have basically realized “standardized and automated process”. But by contrast, the production process and raw material technology of the enterprises are relatively backward. For example, in the production of auto parts, die-casting parameter setting,

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Fig. 4.35 Precise energy control model

machining tool adjustment and management and other processes still rely on operator’s experience, resulting in serious waste of raw materials, energy and equipment, and difficulty in improvement of the carbon efficiency. With the low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry and parts industry, it is urgent to realize “knowledge standardization and automation” through digitalization technology, so as to promote the optimization of low-carbon production process. Aluminum is one of the most important metal materials for automobile manufacturing, and is widely applied in body frame, engine, bumper, wheel, battery system, various parts and components, etc. of the vehicle. However, the aluminum industry is a high energy consuming and carbon emitted industry. According to statistics, its carbon emission in 2020 was about 426 million tCO2 e, accounting for about 5% of the total carbon emission of the whole society. Therefore, how to accurately control the aluminum consumption is critical to the carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry. Taking the wheel as an example, its production processes mainly include smelting, die casting, heat treatment, machining and coating, in which machining refers to a process through which the heat-treated casting blank is tuned, drilled or otherwise processed to make the shape and size of the wheel hub meet the concerning requirements. The processed aluminum wheels shall be such assembled with flange, cap, bolt, balance weight, tire, valve and other accessories that the operation of brake disc, steering knuckle and other components is not affected. As shown in Fig. 4.36, in the traditional wheel machining process, technicians tend to adjust the process based on their experience according to the basic state of the blank and the CMM inspection

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Fig. 4.36 Problems involved in traditional hub machining process

results. But the number of machine tool and the dimension chain corresponding to the machining position constitute a many-to-many mesh relationship, that is, one machining position corresponds to multiple machine tool numbers, and when the machine tool of one tool number is adjusted, multiple positions will be affected simultaneously. Since the dimension chain is complex, it is difficult to ensure the accurate control of the aluminum wheel size even if the manual adjustment and test is repeated, while such repeated adjustment and test virtually increase the carbon emission of raw material and process. To solve these problems, CITIC Dicastal and CDJNJT jointly developed the “intelligent tool compensation and adjustment solution” (as shown in Fig. 4.37), which realizes the AI closed-loop adjustment of CNC machine through simulating the dimension processing chain, analyzing and automatically issuing the adjustment parameters, and what’s more important, it adopts a intelligent model to continuously optimize the tool compensation knowledge map and precipitate the process experience, allowing for accurate control of the hub size. This solution realizes not only the weight reduction of the wheel hub, but also the less consumption of raw material carbon and process carbon. To sum up, only by quantifying and optimizing the production process through digitalization technology can we solve the experience-based process operation existing in traditional manufacturing process, and promote the production automation, flexibility, digitalization, intelligence and low-carbon development of automotive industry and parts industry. Digitalization technology empowers “low-carbon product innovation” to ensure designability and added value At present, carbon neutrality has attracted global attention and become an international consensus, and an international carbon trade barrier covering the whole life cycle of vehicles has been formed. The automotive industry is a pillar industry of the national economy. Due to the characteristics of long industry chain, wide coverage and strong driving force, it has exerted great pressure on energy, resources and environment in the four life cycle stages including raw material acquisition, vehicle

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Fig. 4.37 Intelligent tool compensation and adjustment solution

production, vehicle use and steel scrap recycling. The carbon emission of the automotive industry is largely determined by the design. In the traditional automobile production process, the relevant performance of the vehicles is usually evaluated after an event. However, with the increasing concern of the world on low carbon and environmental protection, it is more necessary to make pre-event evaluation at the beginning of automobile design, and make full use of industrial digitalization technology to assist enterprises to take different low-carbon technical measures at different stages of the automobile life cycle. At present, some automobile enterprises abroad have established an automobile innovation evaluation index system which covers low carbon, health, cost and other aspects, and applied them to the whole life cycle process of automobiles to enable the iterative upgrade of automobiles in different development processes, as described below. 1. Benz: Environmental Management System In order to cope with various challenges in automobile research and development, and balance the interaction between different indicators and deal with the potential contradictions in different development environments, Mercedes Benz has developed an environmental management system based on ISO14001 Environmental management systems, and built an index system for climate protection, air quality, resource maintenance and health. Based on this system, functional factors, economic factors and carbon emission factors are fully considered in the product design stage, and indicator verification in the whole process of automobile R&D and production is realized, so that the designers can make corresponding improvements to the product structure according to the feedback results to finalize the optimal design scheme. 2. Toyota: Eco-Vehicle Assessment System Toyota has thoroughly implemented the comprehensive environment assessment standard of LCA, developed an eco-vehicle assessment system, and built an index system from six aspects including fuel consumption, exhaust emission, noise in the vehicle use stage, recyclability and reduction of environmentally hazardous

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substances in the vehicle scrapping stage, and environmental impact in the whole life cycle, so as to realize the tracking and inspection of carbon emission indicators in the whole life cycle of vehicles, and therefore the iterative upgrade of the product. 3. Ford Europe: Product Sustainability Index (PSI) In order to improve the environmental, health, economic and social performance of products, Ford Europe has defined a product sustainability index, which mainly includes life cycle air quality, life cycle cost, sustainable materials, safety and mobility. By continuously tracking the PSI changes in the whole process of R&D, Ford Europe can constantly make adjustments and improvements, and realize iterative optimization of product development scheme. To sum up, the decision-making in the automobile design and R&D stage will affect 70–80% of the overall performance of the automobile, and an effective pre-event evaluation method will provide support for the decision-making of different low-carbon approaches in different stages. Benz’s environmental management system, Toyota’s eco-vehicle assessment system and Ford’s product sustainability index are all for assessing various automobile indicators in the design and development stage, and through feedback, satisfactory products will be produced in a planned way and the carbon cost will be effectively controlled. Digitalization technology allows for scientific evaluation of the adopted digitalization technology in combination with different indicators in the whole life cycle of the automobile, realizing low-carbon development of new products. It is recommended that domestic automobile enterprises should establish a carbon neutrality-oriented pre-event evaluation system for the whole life cycle of automobiles, adjusting the data in real time to obtain the evaluation results, and feeding the results back to the development plan to build the low-carbon innovation capability of products. (3) Prediction of emission reduction capacity The industrial digitalization technology will help the automotive industry to achieve precise energy management, low-carbon process and low-carbon product innovation, and is the only way for the low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry. As shown in Table 4.11, with the adoption of industrial digitalization technology, it is expected that, the carbon emission from single vehicle production and the carbon emission from battery will be reduced by more than 30% and more than 20% respectively by 2025, reduced by more than 80% and more than 60% respectively by 2050, and reduced by 100% and by more than 80% respectively by 2060. Therefore, under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, it is recommended to vigorously promote the digitalization of the automotive industry.

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Table 4.11 Prediction of carbon emission reduction rate of single vehicle production and battery Category of scenario category

Parameter

2021 (%)

2025 (%)

2030 (%)

2050 (%)

2060 (%)

Reference scenarios

Carbon emission reduction percentage of single vehicle production

100

20

40

60

80

Low-carbon scenario

Carbon emission reduction percentage of single vehicle production

100

30

50

80

100

Enhanced low-carbon scenario

Carbon emission reduction percentage of single vehicle production

100

40

60

100

100

Reference scenarios

Carbon emission reduction percentage of battery

100

15

30

50

60

Low-carbon scenario

Carbon emission reduction percentage of battery

100

20

40

60

80

Enhanced low-carbon scenario

Carbon emission reduction percentage of battery

100

30

50

80

100

4.2.6 Path 6: Transportation Intelligence 4.2.6.1

Status-Quo and Problems

In recent years, the deeper integration of new technologies such as Internet, big data and artificial intelligence with transportation has promoted the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of transportation. New formats and new products of transportation services are continually being developed, traffic operation and management modes are upgrading, and the people’s travel experience is improving. New infrastructure and digitalization of transportation are accelerated. The number and scale of intelligent highway projects is growing rapidly, intelligent sensing technology is widely applied, and tests for bad weather driving guidance, active safety prevention and control and other features are actively carried out [79]. The building information model (BIM) is widely used in highway industry [80]. The

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GIS-T platform for the national highway network has been built. The demonstration of transportation-energy integration has been actively carried out in some highway projects, and for example, Shandong Rongwu Expressway and Shanghai Changxing Island Service Area have launched distributed PV power generation tests. Intelligence of transportation operation and control has been continuously improved. The expressway video cloud platform has been basically completed, which is connected to thousands of traffic flow monitoring devices, video devices and ETC gantry devices. Hundreds of online ride hailing service enterprises and millions of vehicles have been accessed to the online ride hailing service information interaction platform [81]. There have been major breakthroughs in the construction of traffic “data brain” in cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou, and a comprehensive transportation monitoring, simulation and intelligent dispatching system from cross-sector cooperation has taken shape. The innovative application of E-travel has achieved remarkable achievements. The E-ticket application has covered 800 passenger transport terminals; the ETC application rate of passenger cars on expressways has exceeded 70%, and the expressway broadcasting system has covered 22 provinces; the all-in-one transportation card has realized the interconnection of 280 cities above prefecture level nationwide [81, 82]; new business types such as “E-travel” have emerged continuously, the practice of travel reservation in specific scenarios has been gradually carried out, and the scale and development level of online ride hailing service and bicycle sharing service rank first in the world. New models of intelligent logistics services are emerging. The e-AWB application rate of major express delivery enterprises has reached 90%; more than 2.4 million freight vehicles have been convened by various online freight enterprises [81, 82]; the application of intelligent technology for logistics transportation equipment is becoming more and more mature, automatic guided vehicles (AGV), automatic transportation & sorting systems and other intelligent devices have been put into largescale application in some logistics parks; the distribution center of postal express industry has basically realized automatic sorting. Cooperative vehicle infrastructure technology and autonomous driving technology are developing rapidly. Autonomous driving development enterprises have started the development and test of conditional/high driving automation, pilot driverless taxis have been trial run in some cities, and driverless trucks have achieved commercial operation in specific areas. Most of the new intelligent expressway projects have a small-scale test of the cooperative vehicle infrastructure technology or autonomous driving technology [79]; more than 60 automatic driving test sites and demonstration areas have been put into use, and the mileage of open automatic driving test road has exceeded 3000 km. Through great progress has been made in transportation intelligence, compared with the intelligent and green development requirements from Building China’s Strength in Transportation, there are still some deficiencies. (1). The digitalization foundation is still weak. The dynamic data perception is narrow in width and low

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185

in depth with visualization as main approach and measurement as supplementary approach, and there is a gap for realizing control and service; few systematic and large-scale public data are available in the industry, and the actual data openness is far from the social expectation. (2) The application cooperativity is not strong. The development in diverse modes and fields is not consistent. Except for the national ETC national networking system, there are few vertical national integrated cooperative applications, and the horizontal cross-field and cross-sector applications have not been fully integrated and effectively linked. (3) The integration of transportation services is not high. The intermodal passenger transport and multimodal freight transport are still in the initial stage, and the whole-process digital service system, including integrated ticketing system for passenger transport and one-bill system for freight transport, has not been established; the supply capacity of whole-process allweather travel solutions, travel reservation service platforms and supporting facilities cannot meet the urgent needs of the public. (4) The integration and innovation are insufficient. New technologies such as cooperative vehicle infrastructure technology, autonomous driving technology and transportation-energy integration technology are still under testing, and lack application scenarios for actual implementation; the technical solutions and construction modes for specific application scenarios are not mature; some operating systems and mechanisms involving cross-sector corporation are not sound enough; and no clearly-defined large-scale commercial operation plan is available.

4.2.6.2

Future Development Trend

The digitalization, connection, intelligence, sharing and low-carbon development of transportation is changing the operation mode, management mode and service mode of transportation, and promoting the integrative development of intelligent transportation, intelligent car, intelligent energy and smart city, helping build a transportation system with higher safety, efficiency, intelligence, environment friendliness and economic efficiency that effectively connects the production, distribution, circulation and consumption, to ensure easier movement of people and smoother flow of goods. Data elements will drive the transformation of transportation production mode With the rapid development of digital economy, data has become a key element that will promote the mutual expression, gradual integration and co-evolution of physical space and virtual space, and thereafter trigger qualitative leapfrog in productivity and major change in production relations. Telecommuting, video conferencing and online shopping allow people to travel less or select new travel mode through new technologies. Transportation sharing services such as online ride hailing, bicycle sharing and periodic leasing will improve the utilization efficiency of transportation tools continuously. The combination of massive arterial route public transportation + shared mobility will effectively alleviate the contradiction between the increasingly limited transportation resources within the city cluster and the rapid growth of traffic

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demand. Morgan Stanley estimates that by 2030, the mileage covered by car sharing will account for 26% of the total travel mileage around the world [1, 83]. In addition, digitalization blurs the boundary between transportation supply and demand. The shared mobility platform based on big data will, through connection of data flow, passenger traffic flow and cargo traffic flow, realize the integrated passenger and freight transportation service by means of transportation organization with the characteristics of high timeliness, high frequency, accurate matching, multi-party integration and seamless connection to dynamically respond to the transportation demand. In 2035, online travel reservation will become normal, shared mobility will be widely popularized, and technologies including biometric identification, frictionless access and frictionless payment will be widely applied; the intelligent multimodal freight transport technology will be popularized, the proportion of urban logistics co-distribution will exceed 50%, and the whole process of logistics will be visualized. By 2050, “door-to-door” one-stop intelligent passenger transport service and one-order intelligent freight service will be realized. Transportation infrastructure network, transportation service network, energy network and information network will be integrated to build a new highway infrastructure network Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have intensively deployed and accelerated the promotion of new infrastructures such as 5G network and data center. New highway infrastructure is an important part of the national new infrastructure strategy, and also an important part for the construction of national transportation strength. Both the Outline for the Construction of National Strength in Transportation and the National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline clearly specify to “promote the integrative development of transportation infrastructure network, transportation service network, information network and energy network”, and to “be at the global forefront in terms of the quality, intelligence and green levels of transport infrastructure”, which requires highway transport sector to actively adapt to the growing demand for high-quality, diversified and personalized passenger travel and high-value, small-batch and time-effective cargo transportation, promote the overall layout, planning and construction of highway infrastructure, information infrastructure and energy infrastructure by empowering the traditional highway infrastructure via cutting-edge technologies, and realize the transformation of transportation from separate development to cooperative and integrated development. In addition, continuous innovation and breakthrough of new technologies such as big data, Internet, artificial intelligence and blockchain have promoted the transformation of development driving force from production factor to innovation. The level of digitalization, connection and intelligence of the highway network, information network and energy network is required to be continuously improved to form a new comprehensive infrastructure system, that is widely interconnected, smart, green, open and shared with data as fusion agent. By 2035, the highway infrastructure will be digitalized in all elements and all cycles; the high-power charging facilities for super-fast charging of electric vehicles will fully cover the expressways in city clusters. By 2050, the

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automatic detection, warning and intelligent maintenance of highway facilities and equipment, and the all-element & all-weather real-time perception covering the whole highway network and the whole-process active control of highway operation will be realized; and convenient, efficient, interconnected and shared charging and battery swapping network will be built. Corporative vehicle infrastructure technology and autonomous driving technology will change the transportation management mode With the development of corporative vehicle infrastructure technology and autonomous driving technology, the service object of highway transportation has changed from people to machines, the service subject has changed from single subject to multiple subjects, and the service mode has changed from one-way information provision to two-way/multi-way information interaction, which requires revolutionary changes in highway transportation operation rules and management modes. It is predicted that by 2030, the market share of intelligent connected vehicles of partial driving automation (PA) level and conditional driving automation (CA) level in China’s automobile sales market in that year will exceed 70%; the market share of intelligent connected vehicles of high driving automation (HA) level will reach 20%, and such vehicles will be widely applied in expressway transportation and will be applied in transportation on some urban roads; by 2035, the intelligent connected vehicle of high driving automation (HA) level will be applied on a large scale [84, 85]. In the global automobile sales market, the intelligent connected vehicle will embrace a sales proportion close to saturation after 2040, and will basically realize full electrification, automation and connection in 2050 [86]. In terms of cooperative vehicle infrastructure technology, Level S3 and Level S4 conditional cooperative vehicle infrastructure technologies will be popularized on a large scale in 2035 and in 2050 respectively [87]. Under the guidance of digital economy, the new generation of road transportation control network and traffic brain with multi-subject cooperation will realize the collaborative perception, decision-making and control of vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to road, and will be applied on a large scale in expressway network and urban road network in economically developed areas by 2035, and in national road network in 2050.

4.2.6.3

Carbon Emission Reduction Potential Analysis

Intelligent transportation will promote transportation structure optimization In the past, the reform of transport means from carriage and train to automobile and aircraft determines the capacity and structure of the integrated transportation system; while since the 1980s, the development of information technology has become the largest driver of transportation reform. Electrification, digitalization, intelligence and connection are changing the power system and control system of the vehicle, and what’s more important, the transportation supply and demand. With the emergency of new shared mobility services, the demand for private vehicles will gradually

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decrease. Besides, under the dual effects of shared mobility mode and intelligent control technology, the unload ratio and stop time of single vehicle are effectively reduced, and the transportation efficiency (expressed in person kilometers or ton kilometers) completed per vehicle kilometer will be significantly improved. In intercity transportation, the market share of highway passenger transport is rapidly reduced, and railways and intercity rail transit will become the main modes of transportation; the means for long-distance bulk cargo transportation gradually shifts from highway to railway and waterway. The autonomous-driving freight vehicle formation will play an important role in the trunk transportation, effectively improving the transportation speed and reducing traffic accidents. In intracity transportation, the connection, complementarity, integrated operation and refined service of rail transit and conventional ground public transportation will significantly improve the share of green transportation; socialized logistics co-distribution will alleviate urban traffic congestion, reduce energy consumption and mitigate pollution. Intelligent transportation will improve road capacity Autonomous driving vehicles can effectively reduce headway and improve driving safety, thus greatly improving the traffic capacity of a single lane. However, considering the penetration rate of autonomous driving vehicles, the autonomous driving vehicle and manual driving vehicle will co-exist for a long term, and at this time, both the negative impact of autonomous driving vehicles on manual driving vehicles and the impact of their co-existence in special areas such as entrances, exits and weaving sections should be considered. Therefore before 2035, the role of autonomous driving vehicle in the improvement of the overall road capacity is limited. On the other hand, as the penetration rate of autonomous driving vehicles increases, the autonomous driving vehicle with intelligent connection capability will work as a large mobile intelligent terminal and will play an increasingly important role in intelligent transportation systems. The new generation of road traffic control network and traffic brain will, by applying data-driven traffic control and service technology, realizes the connection of people, vehicle, road and environment to deeply explore the efficiency of existing traffic resources, so as to realize the intelligence and accuracy of overall traffic scheduling and management, and the reasonable matching of transportation demand and supply in time and space, thus effectively improving the overall traffic efficiency of the road network. Intelligent transportation will improve energy efficiency The electrification, connection and intelligence of automobiles and their extensive interconnection and integrative development with highway infrastructure network, energy network and information network will profoundly change the energy consumption scale and structure of highway transportation. Continuous growth of EV population will put forward higher requirements for the layout, scale, operation and maintenance of charging and battery swapping facilities along the highway. Now, a large number of connected and intelligent power facilities have been built along the intelligent highway, which will also greatly increase the energy consumption of traditional highways. However, the integrated application of new technologies

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such as Internet, big data and artificial intelligence will realize the dynamic cooperative operation and control of the transportation network and the energy network, and then help improve the energy efficiency. Besides, if autonomous driving vehicles are traveling in formation, the wind drag will reduce and thereafter the fuel consumption and exhaust emissions will be effectively reduced. In the long run, with the widespread popularity of autonomous driving vehicles, intelligent transportation will, through vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure interaction as well as intelligent sensing and cooperative operation and control, help optimize vehicle driving behavior to make it travel at higher speed or a constant speed, thus reducing energy consumption and exhaust emissions.

4.2.6.4

Conclusions and Recommendations

The digitalization, connection, intelligence, sharing and low-carbon development of transportation has become the irresistible trend. The integrative development of intelligent transportation, intelligent vehicle, intelligent energy and smart city will promote cross-sector cooperative development and social and economic ecointegration, optimize the transportation structure, improve the overall safety and efficiency of the road network, and reduce energy consumption and environmental pollution. In order to promote the development of intelligent transportation, the following actions are required: further consolidate the digital foundation and promote the digitalization, connection and intelligence of highway infrastructure and transportation vehicles; strengthen the innovation of application scenarios that can be implemented according to the phased characteristics and maturity of technology, make detailed and practical technical scheme and operation mode design for specific application scenarios such as shared mobility, vehicle infrastructure cooperation and the integration of transportation infrastructure network, transportation service network, energy network and information network, establish a sound operation system for crosssector cooperation, and promote the large-scale and commercial application of intelligent transportation technology; strengthen policy guidance, follow the “market first, government supplement” principle, encourage the investment of social capital in the construction and operation of intelligent transportation system, and build an intelligent transportation industry ecosystem.

4.2.7 Path 7: Shared Mobility The transportation is a social and economic system containing a variety of social and economic factors, and those factors have gradually become the drivers for the lowcarbon transformation of the transportation industry. For example, the transformation of urban morphology can minimize the driving of vehicle and help reduce carbon emissions thereafter; people’s attention to shared values and sharing economy can

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change travelers’ behavior and reduce carbon emissions; the adaptation of charging system to the new mode of power grid will improve the efficiency of power transmission. Among the driving factors of carbon emission reduction, the spreading of sharing economy concept can help improve social and economic efficiency [88, 89], promote urban transformation, and as it is not limited to a single industry, make a certain contribution to the increase of the welfare of the whole society. Besides, more and more supporting data prove that the sharing economy, through the change of the organization of economic activities, enables greater support from social groups than a single family and thus shows greater potential for carbon emission reduction [88, 90]. Shared mobility, as a part of the sharing economy which grows fastest, has received extensive attention in recent years [90]. Shared mobility is an emerging transportation mode in which people are not required to get the ownership of vehicle, share vehicles with others in the manner of sharing and carpooling, and pay according to their travel requirements. The representative mode of shared mobility include online ride hailing and car sharing. This new travel mode mainly achieves emission reduction through substitution for private car, improvement of vehicle use efficiency, and improvement of urban transportation system efficiency. As for its substitution for private cars, it is estimated by Greenblatt&Shaheen that the application of each car for sharing will remove 9–13 private cars from the road [90]; as for the improvement of vehicle use efficiency, it is studied by Martinez&Viegas research that shared mobility can increase the daily operation time of vehicle from about 50 min a day to 12 h [91]; as for the improvement of urban transportation system efficiency, the study of the International Transport Forum (ITF) shows that carpooling can reduce the traffic congestion by 48% and therefore reduce the CO2 emission by 50% [92]. This section, considering that the online ride hailing service accounts for more than 90% of the shared mobility market [93], takes the online ride hailing mode as an example to discuss the carbon emission reduction potential of passenger vehicles (private cars) for shared mobility under six scenarios based on the China Automotive Life Cycle Assessment Model (CALCM). (1) Status-quo of China’s new energy car online ride hailing service market With the promotion and increasing market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, their scale advantage and cost advantage are gradually showing out, and online ride hailing service has become the main application field of new energy vehicles with its overwhelming advantage in comprehensive operating cost. According to the main purpose of vehicles, the NEV market is mainly divided into the following seven segments: private car, e-taxis, taxis, car for sharing, logistics vehicle, bus and heavyduty truck. After analyzing the data provided by the National Big Data Alliance of New Energy Vehicles [94], we found that in 2020, the average daily mileage of e-taxis was 157.8 km, second only to that of taxis, as shown in Fig. 4.38. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, i.e. in 2019, the average daily travel duration of e-taxis in China was 6.99 h, with an increase of 1.11 h compared with the 5.88 h in 2018; the average daily mileage was 167.25 km, increasing greatly compared with the 141.67 km in 2018; In addition, the proportion of e-taxis with an average daily travel

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Fig. 4.38 Average daily mileage of new energy vehicles for different purposes in 2020

duration above 8 h in the first-tier cities was much higher than that in other cities, and that in cities of fourth tier and fifth tier was significantly lower than that in other cities. However, in 2020, the average daily mileage and average daily travel duration of etaxis decreased slightly, which is mainly owing to the outbreak and rage of COVID-19 pandemic, when most industries in China were heavily impacted, people’ demand for public travel dropped sharply in the short term, and the market shrunk temporarily; the driver faced heavy physical and psychological pressure during driving; and to ensure the daily disinfection and safety of the vehicle, the operating cost of the platform increased sharply. However, in the long run, e-taxis is still the dominator of the travel market. A large number of studies have shown that, compared with the traditional vehicle fleet for shared mobility, electric vehicles are equivalent in terms of service, travel time and waiting time, and perform better in operation and maintenance costs. (2)

Carbon emission reduction potential of online ride hailing service

This subsection accounts for the carbon emission reduction rate of battery electric vehicles and conventional fuel vehicles under different shared mobility scenarios by using the LCA method, so as to analyze the carbon emission reduction effect of shared mobility. For the accounting of life cycle carbon emission of vehicles, the data provided by CATARC-ADC is used, including the material input, basic parameters, carbon emission factors, etc. of the whole life cycle of the automobile. Shared mobility can effectively reduce vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) through combined travel, and can also provide a foundation for fleet cut-down, congestion relief and reduction of potential energy consumption and emission [95–98]. Compared with conventional fuel vehicles, electric vehicles have greater advantages in emission reduction. Seen from the different stages of the vehicle life cycle, the electric vehicles show a higher carbon emission in vehicle cycle due to the production of batteries, but their carbon emission in fuel cycle is far lower than that of conventional fuel vehicles. For this research, two backgrounds, namely reference background and

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policy background are selected. In the reference background, it is assumed that the proportion of BEVs in passenger vehicle population in China remains unchanged; in the policy background, it is assumed that China will realize the full electrification of vehicles in the future, and the market share of electric vehicles will reach 100%. Under the two backgrounds, six scenarios covering 4-people shared mobility, 3people shared mobility and 2-people shared mobility are set up to discuss the carbon emission reduction rate in vehicle cycle and fuel cycle respectively. The carbon emission reduction effect of shared mobility is characterized by its carbon emission reduction rate relative to traditional travel mode, where the carbon emission reduction is the difference between the carbon emissions of traditional travel mode and shared mobility mode, and the carbon emission reduction rate is the ratio of carbon emissions from shared mobility mode to the carbon emissions from traditional travel modes. The calculation formula is as follows: E Mr = E M F − E M E EMr e= EMF where, E Mr is the carbon emission reduction of shared mobility mode compared with traditional travel mode, kg; e is the carbon emission reduction rate of shared mobility mode compared with traditional travel mode, %; E M F is the carbon emission from traditional travel mode, kg; E M E is the carbon emission from shared mobility mode, kg. As shown in Fig. 4.39, under the six scenarios, the carbon emission reduction effect of shared mobility is mainly reflected in the fuel cycle. Specifically, the average carbon emission reduction rate in the fuel cycle is about 66%, and that in the vehicle cycle is only about 13%. For online ride hailing service, shared mobility reduces the travel frequency of private cars to a certain extent, and is the major substitution for private cars. Now that fuel vehicles account for about 97% of total vehicle population in China, and the fuel cycle carbon emission of fuel vehicles is the main contributor of life cycle carbon emission of vehicles, sharing of per capita carbon emission at the user end does the most to the carbon emission reduction of shared mobility. Horizontal comparison of different shared mobility modes shows that about another 5% of the carbon emission reduction rate will be expected for each increase of 1 people participating in the shared mobility, and from this point of view, when more people participate in the shared mobility, the per capita carbon emission in travel is lower, and the carbon emission reduction rate is greater, which also indicate that the substitution of public transport for private cars can achieve greater carbon emission reduction effect. By comparing the results of reference background and the policy background, it is found that the carbon emission reduction rate of EV scenario is higher, and in the three scenarios under the policy background, the average carbon emission reduction rate is 13% higher than that of reference background, as shown

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in Table 4.11. In recent years, with the progress of electric vehicle technology, more and more car sharing companies are replacing their original fleet with BEV fleet to achieve net zero carbon emission [99]. For example, in Beijing, Shouqi Group, as a response to the development of shared mobility, launched GOFun, an electric vehicle for leasing, to provide convenient, green, fast and economical travel service for users. Successful global EV sharing markets have also emerged, such as Autolib in France, SHARENOW in Germany and Zipcar [98] in the United States (Table 4.12).

Fig. 4.39 Carbon emission reduction rate of shared mobility under six scenarios

Table 4.12 Parameter settings of shared mobility under different scenarios Category of scenario category

Parameter

Reference scenarios

Sharing rate

Low-carbon scenario

Sharing rate

Enhanced low-carbon scenario

Sharing rate

Reference scenarios

2025 (%)

2030(%)

2050(%)

2060(%)

5.00

14.29

51.43

70.00

8.00

18.50

60.50

80.00

10.00

24.00

80.00

80.00

Shared carbon emission reduction rate

6.87

19.20

64.14

79.91

Low-carbon scenario

Shared carbon emission reduction rate

10.32

24.74

73.97

87.94

Enhanced low-carbon scenario

Shared carbon emission reduction rate

12.88

32.44

88.03

88.17

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(3) Barriers to the development of shared mobility Shared mobility is a part of sharing economy, which can effectively solve the problems in urban transportation, energy consumption, air pollution and health. Among all shared mobility modes, online ride hailing is the most widely applied one, but it also faces a series of new problems: (1) the laws and regulations on online ride hailing are not complete, passengers’ information security and personal safety are often threatened, and serious problems are involved in responsibility division in case of an event; (2) governments have formulated strict regulatory rules to further rationally allocate transportation resources and strengthen the safety of online ride hailing service, which however rises the access threshold of online ride hailing, and somehow hinders development of the online ride hailing market; (3) there is no transparent pricing mechanism for online ride hailing, and there may be the case that the online ride hailing platform infringes consumers’ right to know by using the dynamic price adjustment mechanism; (4) the online ride hailing service, though bringing some convenience to us, will cause certain negative environmental effects, and the public transport means and non-motorized transport means are at the risk of being replaced. Besides, charging of EVs for shared mobility is also a big problem. Nowadays, there are a large number of gas stations available for traditional vehicles but relatively few charging piles for electric vehicles, and the construction of a large number of charging piles is poles part of the original intention of shared NEVs for sharing existing resources; in addition, new energy vehicles are also facing people’s anxiety on range. Once put into shared mobility, the daily kilometers traveled by NEVs will be much higher than before, especially in Beijing, Shanghai and other big cities where dilemma of power runout on the way may occur during travel across districts. With the improvement of living standards, people has higher and higher requirements on travel quality. The traditional public transport travel mode can no longer meet the requirements some people for high-quality and high-precision travel. At this period when the urban travel modes are diversified, EV shared mobility comes into being and becomes a new development trend of travel, which not only has advantages over other travel modes in alleviating urban traffic congestion, saving resource utilization and reducing carbon emissions, and but also increases the welfare of the whole society through the new economic paradigm of sharing economy after combining big data and intelligent connected technology. However, there are some urgent problems to be solved in the development of sharing economy, such as responsibility distribution, pricing mechanism, adverse impact of infrastructure on public transport travel, etc. Therefore, while accelerating the construction of infrastructure, human resources and public environment required by the sharing economy, policy makers should also strengthen the governance to business operation environment, and formulate an effective social credit system to cultivate the sharing economy into a driver of China’s economic growth, and broaden the development path of the sharing economy.

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4.2.8 Path 8: Resource Recycling 4.2.8.1

Automotive Resource Recycling

(1) Status-quo and development trend of the industry In the past few years, the vehicle population and recovery in China have maintained a rapid rising trend. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, China’s vehicle population increased from 217 million in 2017 to 302 million in 2021. At the same time, the recovery of ELVs has also increased steadily. In 2021, 2.975 million of ELVs were recovered, accounting for about 1% of the vehicle population, as shown in Fig. 4.40. In order to reduce the excessive dependence of the automotive industry on natural resources, reduce the negative impact of resource exploitation on the social environment, and respond to the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” policy, the automotive industry is required to transform into a “resource-saving and environment-friendly” industry. The recovery, dismantling and resource recycling of ELVs based on the principle of “reduction, reuse and recycling” is an indispensable key link to realize the closed-loop cycling of automotive products. The automotive industry shall take the automobile dismantling and recycling as the leading and starting point, and the circular industrial chain as the technological support and management system to adapt to the new development pattern in which the industrial cycle is dominated and participants at home and abroad work hand in hand for mutual promotion [100]. (2) Development trend and forecast of automotive resource recycling Countries all over the world have attached great importance to the recycling of automotive resources. For example in the United States, components which account for almost 75–80% of the vehicle weight are recycled, and at present, there are

Fig. 4.40 Growth trend of China’s vehicle population and recycling from 2012 to 2021

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more than 12,000 ELV dismantling enterprises, 20,000 parts remanufacturing enterprises and 200 ELV shredding enterprises in the United States. Now, ELV recycling industry in the United States create billions of dollars of benefits every year. As early as September 2000, the EU issued the End of Life Vehicles Directive (Directive 2000/53/EC), which was fully implemented by Member States from January 1, 2007. The directive stipulates that automobile manufacturers, when putting a new vehicle into the European market, must provide a certificate to prove that the materials accounting for at least 85% of the weight of new vehicle put into the market can be recovered, and at least 95% of them can be reused. In Japan, there are about 85,000 ELV recycling enterprises, 23,000 Freon treatment enterprises, 5000 dismantling enterprises and 140 shredding enterprises, ensuring a recycling rate of ELVs close to 100%. China has also issued a series of policies successively to regulate the management of automotive resource recycling. With the formal implementation of the Measures for the Management of End-of-Life Vehicle Recycling and the Technical specifications for end-of-life vehicles collecting and dismantling enterprises in 2019, China’s ELV recycling industry is facing major development opportunities and challenges. On July 31, 2020, 7 ministries including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Detailed Rules for the Implementation of the Measures for the Recycling of End-ofLife Vehicles, which clearly stipulates the code of conduct for recovery, dismantling and recycling, and put forward that the “five assemblies” including engine, steering gear, transmission, front/rear axle and frame can be recycled. In July, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development, which clearly specifies to strengthen the standardized management and environmental supervision of dismantling and recycling enterprises for end-of-life motor vehicles, end-of-life ships, lead batteries and others. Major automakers in the automotive industry have also formulated quantitative carbon emission reduction targets. For example, Volvo Group has proposed to reduce the carbon footprint of each vehicle by 40% by 2025 and achieve climate neutrality by 2040; Volkswagen Group has proposed to reduce the carbon emission of each vehicle by 30% by 2025 and finally realize the life cycle carbon neutrality of vehicles by 2050; Toyota has proposed to reduce life cycle CO2 emissions of vehicles to 1/3 of the 2001 level by 2030, and achieve net zero life cycle carbon emissions by 2050. In addition, these international automobile enterprises have realized carbon emission reduction in the material product process through strengthening the development and utilization of low-carbon materials, reducing the use of materials and increasing the use of recycled materials during the development and design of a new model. With the gradual standardization of policies, the scale of China’s ELV industry is also expanding steadily. According to the prediction in 2.4 of this Book that the vehicle population in China will continue to grow in the future, and considering that the proportion of recovered vehicles (2.975 million) in vehicle population (302 million vehicles) in 2021 was about 1%, and this proportion in developed countries is about 5–7%, it is assumed that such proportion in China will reach 3% in

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Table 4.13 Prediction of China’s vehicle population and recycling in the future Time

Vehicle population (100 million)

New energy vehicles (10,000)

Recycling rate (proportion in vehicle population) (%)

Recovery (10,000)

New energy vehicles (10,000)

2025 (forecast)

3.61

2839

3

1083

85.2

2030 (forecast)

4.46

7395

5

2230

369.8

2035 (forecast)

5.02

14,611

7

3514

1022.8

2050 (forecast)

5.47

32,130

7

3829

2249.1

2060 (forecast)

5.38

38,003

7

3766

2660.2

2025, reach 5% in 2030, and remain table at about 7% after 2035. The specific data of China’s vehicle population and recovery in the future are shown in Table 4.1. In addition, the battery recycling is involved fors the new energy vehicle and the technology used is different from that of vehicle. Therefore, the battery recycling is to be calculated separately. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, increasing by 160% compared with last year, and contributing to a market share up to 13.4%. By the end of 2021, the population of new energy vehicles in China had reached 7.84 million, accounting for 2.6% of the total vehicle population. According to CATARC-ADC’s prediction, the automobile electrification will accelerate in the future, and the market share of EVs will increase rapidly, as shown in Table 4.13. (3) Carbon emission reduction potential analysis of automotive resource recycling China’s vehicle population has ranked first in the world, and the recycling of automotive resources has very important economic and social benefits for the control of carbon emissions in the whole life cycle of vehicle and the realization of industrial closed-loop circulation. According to the industry research, compared with primary materials, the successively use of recycled steel, recycled plastic and recycled aluminum can achieve a carbon emission reduction rate of about 80%, 80% and 90% respectively. The recovery of main automotive materials and their carbon emission reduction data are shown in Table 4.14 [101]. emission reduction effect Recovery. For fuel vehicles: carbon emission reduction = Carbon Depreciation ratio According to the above formula, carbon emission reduction from material recovery of a single fuel vehicle is 4.9 tCO2 . Then for new energy vehicles, the contribution of battery recycling to carbon emission reduction needs to be considered. According to GEM’s calculation for the carbon footprint of battery recycling and material remanufacturing, a carbon emission reduction of 19 kgCO2 is expected for every 1kWh of battery recycled, and if the capacity of each battery pack is taken

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Table 4.14 Carbon emission reduction from material recycling Carbon emission reduction effect (tCO2 /ton of material) Steel Aluminum Plastic

Material recovery of single fuel vehicle (kg)

Depreciation ratio

1.9

2534.48

1.08

14.7

28.95

1.18

3.4

21.73

1.19

as 50kWh, the recycling of each battery pack can help reduce the carbon emission by 950 kgCO2. Therefore, the carbon emission reduction from recycling of single new energy vehicle is 5.8 tCO2 . (4) Automotive resource recycling technology The structural parts of ELVs are mainly made of steel. At present, the dismantling enterprises tend to flatten, cut and shred the vehicle body and structural parts to obtain products that meet certain size specifications and density requirements, and sell them to the steel smelter for recycling. Compared with iron ore, waste steel smelting can reduce the use of coal, water and concentrate powder, and has a remarkable carbon emission reduction effect [102]. In the metal materials shredded from the ELV, the nonferrous metals account for about 3–4.7%, which are mainly aluminum and copper, and a small amount of them are magnesium alloy, zinc, lead and bearing alloy [103]. In order to ensure the quality of recycled aluminum products, the waste aluminum shall be subject to shredding, sorting, melt purification and other processes. For example, color sorting technology and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technology can be used to classify waste aluminums [104]. In a vehicle, pure copper is mainly used for brake pipe, cooling pipe, etc., and copper alloy is mainly used for radiator, brake valve seat, carburetor vent valve body, etc., and those parts will be recovered, sorted, melt and electrorefined into copper products that meet the corresponding specifications after the vehicle comes to the end of its life. In an ELV, plastics account for 8–12% [105]. Overall speaking, the recycling methods of auto plastics can be divided into direct utilization, physical reuse, chemical reuse and energy recovery. The recycling of parts is the first step of the ELV recycling, and is the part with highest economical value in the ELV recycling value system. Parts recycling can generally be divided into direct reuse, remanufacturing and upgraded remanufacturing. The direct reuse of parts is mainly for accident vehicles or less-frequently used vehicles, on which the parts are not used for a long time or many times and are still within the normal service life, and thus can be reused only through simple cleaning and testing; Remanufacturing refers to the secondary reuse of parts after re-processing and repair. Improvement of the reliability of remanufactured parts is an important means to ensure the quality stability of remanufactured products, and is also the only way for remanufactured products to be approved successfully; Upgraded remanufacturing refers to the transformation and upgrade of parts based on the original manufacturing to meet the new standards and requirements. The study shows that, the value created by direct reuse (remanufacturing) of engines from every 1000

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recovered minivans is equivalent to the value created by 44 (or 21) new engines [106]. The remanufactured engine, compared with a new engine, brings a cost reduction of 50%, an energy consumption reduction of 60%, and a raw material consumption reduction of 70% [107]. (5) Opportunities and challenges facing automotive resource recycling Under the sustainable development of China’s automotive industry, the automotive resource recycling industry is facing great opportunities, mainly including: 1. China’s automobile scrapping rate will continue to grow, and may be above 3% in the next five years, which is mainly due to the accelerated elimination and upgrading of old cars, the increase of vehicle recovery driven by the increase of vehicle population, and the shortened service life of vehicle [108]. 2. The recovery of new energy vehicles and batteries will increase significantly. The battery embraces a large recycling space, which is conducive to the development and growth of enterprises. 3. The storage and disposal of hazardous wastes will be gradually standardized, and illegal recycling and disposal will be further controlled or eliminated. 4. The emergence of carbon trading will further drive the growth of the industry. China has launched carbon emission trading pilot projects in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangdong, Hubei and Shenzhen. In 2021, the opening price of carbon quota was 48 yuan/ton, but in EU, the carbon trading price has exceeded 50 Euros/ton. A vehicle contains about 80% of recycled metal resources, which make a significant contribution to the energy conservation and carbon emission reduction of the steel industry, and will also become a predictable income source in the disposal of ELVs in the future. Although the automobile recycling industry embraces a good development prospect and features outstanding economic and social benefits, it still faces some challenges, as described below: 1. The overall recovery by qualified enterprises is very low, with the ELVs recovered by qualified enterprises only accounting for about 40% of the ELV market. It is urgent to establish formal disposal channels for decommissioned vehicles and end-of-life vehicles. The ELVs shall be more treated through the formal disposal channels and the recovery rate shall be improved, which will in turn promote the improvement of enterprise benefits and thereafter the recycling level of automotive resources. 2. The equipment automation level and management level are low. Most of ELVs are manually or semi-automatically dismantled, and thus the disposal efficiency is low and the added value is low. The recovery and dismantling enterprises have low level of lean management, refined dismantling and intelligent dismantling skill. 3. Enterprises in the industry are unevenly development and generally small in scale. Classified recycling and dismantling, reasonable distribution of regional centralized shredding centers and industry acquisition & integration are the development trends of the industry.

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From this point of view, the automobile dismantling and recycling industry, in the future, is bound to develop towards refined and intelligent dismantling in the future, and realize refined sorting and high-value utilization of shredded and dismantled materials, so as to improve the added value of products. In addition, the government shall strengthen the supervision to illegal channels to realize regional centralized standard dismantling and shredding. (6) Conclusions and recommendations China’s vehicle population is far from peaking, and the automotive industry will maintain a growth trend in a long term. With the implementation of carbon trading and other policies, the automobile recycling industry is now growing rapidly. The automotive industry is highly energy consuming and carbon emitted, and with the introduction of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, automobile recycling becomes particularly important. In 2021, 2.975 million of vehicles were recovered and recycled, and this figure is estimated to reach 37.66 million by 2060. At present, the automobile recycling industry is facing a great challenge of upgrading. Enterprises shall continue to improve their own technology and value competitiveness, and meanwhile, the government shall strengthen the supervision to illegal recycling and dismantling, jointly promoting the rapid and sound development of the automobile recycling industry, realizing the simultaneous development of all links in the automotive industry chain, assisting China to realize the dream of a powerful automobile country, and promoting the high-quality and sustainable development of China’s automotive industry.

4.2.8.2

Transformation to Recycled Resources

Globally, it is projected that per-capita mobility will double between 2019 and 2070 as a result of rising incomes and population growth, while car ownership increases by 60% [109]. To reach the targets on climate change set by the Paris Agreement, a timely decarbonisation of road transport is essential. Fast scaling of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and a corresponding phasing out and replacement of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) is crucial. Scenarios by IEA and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, among others, show that in the long term, BEVs could account for > 85% of the global passenger vehicle fleet and > 60% of the global heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleet could be operated in battery electric mode [110, 111]. In particular, due to their high systemic energy efficiency and relative technical simplicity, experts expect BEVs to maintain their cost advantage over Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs), plug-in vehicles (PHEVs) and e-fuels in the long term [112] (Exhibit 4.1). Studies—such as this book—show that BEVs already have around ~45% of the lifecycle emissions of an equivalent gasoline combustion engine on average today [113]. The transition to clean electricity could improve this figure to around

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Exhibit 4.1 Comparison of GHG emissions from vehicle production without end-of-life emissions—BEV versus ICE [118]

28% by 2030.,2 [114] A widespread shift from ICEs to electric powertrains powered by increasingly decarbonised, renewable energy will eliminate tailpipe CO2 emissions in the medium term. The majority of the environmental footprint (greenhouse gases (GHG), particulate matter, eutrophication etc.) will consequently shift from the use phase to the materials in the build phase [114]. Batteries represent about 30% of the value of a BEV—and also 30% to 60% of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a BEV [115, 116]. The GHG “backpack” of a BEV due to production is thus currently still 66%3 to approx. 79%,4 ,5 higher than for ICEs due to the comparatively energy-intensive battery production. While battery production shows great potential to be reduced through greater use of renewable energies—as already practiced by many leading BEV producers, to reach full carbon abatement potential, the automotive sector must address the emissions embedded in materials and production. As the build phase emissions break down in (Exhibit 4.2) highlights, steel, aluminium and plastics are additional GHG intensive materials. But automotive circularity is not only required because of the high GHG emissions embedded in a vehicle’s material footprint (occurring in the build phase) but also because of declining resource availabilities and other devastating impacts of unsustainable resource extraction [117]. The UN International Resource Panel (IRP) has shown that over 50% of global GHG emissions are caused by the extraction and processing of natural resources [118]. For metals, minerals and plastics (i.e. ‘materials’) this impact amounts to almost a quarter of global emissions [119]. While reducing emissions in industrial 2

a According to Ricardo Energy & Environment, in 2020 a gasoline combustion engine emits an average of 269 g of CO2 per vehicle kilometre in the EU, while a BEV emits only 120 g of CO2 per vehicle kilometre (45%). By 2030, this figure drops to only 239 g/km for internal combustion vehicles, but to 67 g/km (28%) for BEVs. 3 b 6,1 tons CO per ICE versus 13,9 tons per BEV (66%) according to Ricardo Energy & 2 Environment (2020). 4 c 6,4 tons CO per ICE versus 11,2 tons per BEV (75%) according to International Transport 2 Forum (2020). 5 d 6,7–6,9 tons CO per ICE versus 12,4 tons per BEV (79%) according to Agora Verkehrswende 2 (2019).

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Exhibit 4.2 Virgin automotive material projection and required absolute resource decoupling to meet IPCC LED scenario. SYSTEMIQ analysis based on IEA (2022) and ICCT (2021) [145]

processes through use of renewable energy is indispensable, it is unlikely to be sufficient for reaching net zero by 2050, as growing demand for resources (projected to double by 2060), combined with unavoidable emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, will accelerate emission levels [120]. Strong growth in gross domestic product and population are estimated to drive global domestic resource extraction to more than 190 billion tonnes in 2060, up from 88 billion tonnes in 2015 [121]. Besides a strong correlation with GHG emissions, resource extraction leads to other negative environmental impacts pushing our planet’s boundaries: land system change and corresponding biodiversity loss; stress on the global hydrological cycle; and chemical pollution, and disturbances in nitrogen and phosphorous flows. A Circular Economy aims at an optimal and sustainable use of resources to decouple negative environmental impacts from economic value creation. Circular Economy measures increase resource productivity and have the potential to significantly reduce the use of primary raw materials. Applying them requires a systemic, comprehensive approach that takes the entire life cycle of a vehicle into account— and in the best case even multiple life cycles. Policy-makers around the world begin to include life cycle thinking in assessments and legislations [122]. For example, the EU and China are reviewing how life cycle assessment accounting could be considered in the evaluation of vehicle GHG emissions [123, 124]. Evidence increases that a systemic CE approach to achieve absolute resource decoupling is required to meet politically set climate targets [124]. Therefore, the carbon emissions embedded in materials must be tackled—there is not one silver bullet solution to solve the problem, but a variety of circular levers being available to decision-makers. The automotive industry starts from an initial low degree of circularity. Singular optimisations such as selective remanufacturing and typically low value recycling are applied. However, more sophisticated circular solutions and material efficiency strategies start to gain traction [125]. To reach the objective of carbon neutrality, the industry must go further, and take measures which include a fundamental change in the way in which resources are used, and a holistic and systemic approach that

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addresses the entire value chain and its underlying business models. This can be achieved through optimising the impact of virgin materials per passenger-kilometre. This metric is optimised by increasing the proportion of recycled materials and their end-of-life value, while improving their utilisation, occupancy and operational life in terms of passenger-kilometres. While all circular levers available to the automotive industry6 are required to be implemented and systemically applied to achieve dematerialisation,7 this chapter focusses on closing the materials loop through recycling along the entire value chain to reduce primary resource extraction and the corresponding impacts. Today’s economic system and the automotive industry relies on an influx of new resources. The goal of closing of material cycles is to eliminate or greatly reduce this influx which correlates with negative environmental externalities and economic losses. Of the 100 billion tonnes of resources being used globally per year, only about 9% are reintroduced into the economy with the rest becoming waste or consumed in the process [126]. This comes as global material use has nearly quadrupled in 50 years and, in only 6 years between the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact, the global economy consumed 500 billion tonnes of virgin materials [127]. This rate of extraction coupled with the externalities described above continues to threaten the planet’s future. In this context, the used raw materials should be circulated for as long as possible and reused for the manufacture of new vehicles (closed loop). This is achieved by recovering, reprocessing/recycling and using secondary materials while reducing process material and quality losses. Due to stringent automotive material specifications and requirements, the aim in the recycling processes is to achieve a high-quality recycling process in order to avoid downcycling as far as possible. To achieve ambitious targets for employing secondary materials (i.e. recycled content) a high quality secondary materials supply must be guaranteed, which is currently limited by insufficient recycling capacity, technology and processes (esp. dismantling) as well as increasing complexity of materials and composites (e.g. technical plastics). To secure sufficient secondary materials, the automotive industry can contribute to a closed loop through recycling of production scrap, recycling of end-of-life vehicles, design the vehicles for dismantling and recycling,8 as well as increasing demand for recycled content to spur the market. The feasibility of closed material loops depends on whether sufficient high quality secondary materials can be recovered from end-of-life vehicles. Despite 6

a Closing the materials loop through high quality recycling, optimising vehicle design in accordance with circular principles to increase performance, operational life and end-of-life residual value (through reuse/remanufacturing of components); and enabling circular business models that decouple resource consumption from revenue generation and put vehicles into more productive use (esp. ride- / car-pooling, see 4.1.7 Path 7). 7 b Dematerialisation refers to a reduction in the materials-intensity of economic activities, specifically a decrease in material requirements per unit output. 8 c Design-for-dismantling and design-for-recycling refers to enabling a high-quality recycling of end-of-life vehicles through recycling-oriented vehicle design which and minimising downcycling through contamination with other materials.

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vehicles being the most recycled product, [128] with currently insufficient recovery processes and technologies, a large number of automotive materials and associated economic values are lost in the process. The material recovery process is characterised by low value retention with only 8% of recycled steel conforming to quality standards that would make it reusable, aluminium being contaminated with other metals, and overall automotive plastics recycling rates being at 9% at a large majority being open loop recycled [129, 130]. As an uptake of reverse flows of traction batteries is only expected in the mid-2020, barely any battery recycling takes currently place, but recycling companies such as Duesenfeld or Redwood Materials lining up for tapping into this emerging business opportunities with proclaimed recovery potentials of >90% of the battery materials. In addition to the material losses, important resources are lost as a result of vehicles being exported to regions with insufficient waste management infrastructure and, as a consequence, the components and materials are no longer available to a high-quality value cycle [131]. Automotive OEMs increasingly focus on improving end-of-life recovery and reprocessing and commit to raising the share of recycled content in vehicles. To overcome the current gap in low value material recovery and increasing ambitions to close the automotive material loop, end-of-life requirements and processes need major optimisations. As these differ per material type, a brief description for 3 key materials follows: For traction batteries, high quality recycling is crucial, because of problems with the availability of core materials and their associated environmental and social impacts. With rising resource prices high quality recovery becomes even more important. Currently, the recovery of materials such as lithium or graphite is economically not viable at present. Slow return rates as the uptake of BEVs is still in initial stages and the safe handling of toxic components increases the complexity of the entire battery recycling process [132]. While nearly 100% of the entire battery (and differing proportions of specific materials in it, e.g. above 85% of lithium and above 98% of cobalt) [133] can be recovered for closed loop purposes, secondary battery materials from returned batteries will continue to be insufficient to meet the demand for battery materials for the foreseeable future. As the large-scale electrification of road transport is expected [134], the growth curve of (virgin) battery material demand is set on a steep trajectory. Once a long-term steady state where returned batteries approach volumes of newly produced is reached the resource imbalance can be compensated through efficient recycling processes. Therefore, battery recycling infrastructure needs to be built today, with emerging companies tapping into this business opportunity. Collaborative efforts (e.g. cell producers and recyclers) and a systematic design for circularity, at both product and process level, are required. This will include a modular and circular design of the entire battery pack, as well as its removable integration into the car. At the same time, evolving battery technologies need to be reflected in the design and setup of recycling infrastructure. Additionally, in order to organise the circular battery value chain transparently and efficiently, digital tools are needed that are shared by all economic participants. Digital twins and battery passports need to be implemented to optimise the lifecycle

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value of batteries and embedded materials and already gain momentum globally as an optimisation and policy tool alike. For metals, steel and aluminium are the most important materials in terms of volumes and CO2 emissions apart from batteries. Metals can be recycled indefinitely without loss and metal (recycling) value chains are already circular to a certain degree. [126] Metal products are reprocessed through mechanical treatment and subsequently reintroduced to the production cycle. In the case of steel, the transport sector accounts for 16% of end-use steel, [126] with about 90% of end-oflife steel and iron being collected and recovered from vehicles [132]. Steel must be free of contamination and of sufficiently high grade to meet the requirements for car manufacturing. Cars are built with highly specialised and alloyed varieties of steel. Shredding these materials alongside other metals leads to contamination and mixture with other compounds, such as copper. This contamination leads to quality losses and ultimately the steel being downcycled and used for example in the construction sector. [126] If this downgrading of steel is prevented by means of appropriate disassembly processes and cleaner scrap flows, and in particular in a manner that avoids copper contamination, it is projected that 85% of the demand for steel, even high-grade steel, can be met through recycling [135]. The same applies to non-ferrous metals such as aluminium. Over 90% of aluminium is already recovered, but the end-product is lower-grade aluminium [136]. In the dismantling process, aluminium scrap is mixed with different levels of alloys and with other unwanted metals. To ensure maximum value retention and reuse of aluminium for automotive manufacturing, the mixing of different alloys must be eliminated from the recovery cycle. Consequently, the availability of secondary metals will depend on the quality of the end-of-life processes. Closing the materials loop entails to keep copper contamination of end-of-life vehicles in the recycling process as low as possible. This increases the requirements for their end-of-life treatment. Improvements in vehicle design that facilitate disassembly and sorting processes are crucial for better recycling capacities [137]. For automotive plastics, 9% of the total plastics production ends up in cars and lorries. This proportion which is expected to rise as lightweighting strategies become more important to—at least partly—offset average vehicle size and weight increases [136]. By 2050, it is estimated that the average weight of plastic per vehicle will increase by approximately one third relative to today, resulting in a 25% increase in overall demand [138]. Plastic used in vehicles is highly dispersed, integrated in complex composites, and over 39 different polymer types are used [139]. Mechanical recycling of automotive plastic is extremely challenging as a result of the difficulties in segregating individual polymer streams from the shredder light the complex and highly specialized properties of the engineering plastics and plastic composites that are used by the automotive sector. The dismantling of plastic components from endof-life vehicles remains marginal as, although it allows for a clean uncontaminated waste stream, the economics are unfavorable and automation is virtually impossible given the diversity and complex composite structure of vehicle components [124].

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As a result, the predominant fate of plastic from end-of-life vehicles is in automotive shredder residue. The lack of advanced post shredder technology capacity and the focus to date on the recyclability of metals has meant that plastic is typically disposed of in landfill or, increasingly, via incineration with energy recovery. Advanced (chemical) recycling processes suitable for high-performance plastics are not yet economically viable with advanced recycling technologies (especially pyrolysis and gasification) being more and more explored and scaled by plastic producers.9 Hence, to date, much of the embedded material value of the plastics is lost. For recycled technical plastics to be made available from the automotive industry, complex thermoplastics used in cars require better collection, disassembly where possible and sorting of shredder residue and scale-up of stable end use markets to incentivize investments for material recovery (for example through recycled content targets). Due to the increasing amount of plastic in vehicles and the fossil fuel content of plastics, the current trajectory suggests that the environmental burdens associated with managing plastic waste from end-of-life vehicles could worsen, resulting in greater levels of landfilling and incineration and, in turn, higher GHG emissions. At a system-wide level, mechanical recycling can save an estimated 1.1 to 3.6 tonnes of CO2 e per tonne of polymer recycled, thus effectively contributing to decreasing climate risks [140]. Solely relying on recycling and increasing shares of recycled contents in vehicles and batteries will however not suffice to solve the environmental problems associated with increasing resource extraction. Recycling is an indispensable part of the circular economy. It is required to decrease the negative impacts of growing virgin material extraction and processing and the material loop should be closed as soon as possible. But to stay in line with climate target ambitions, the IPCC projects in the LED scenario that absolute virgin material consumption must be decreased by close to 20% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels to achieve 1.5 °C [141]. The Circularity Gap report showcases that the automotive industry can reduce absolute virgin material consumption through raising recycling and recycled content in vehicles—but vehicle utilization, durability and design improvements as well as overall lower travel demand are required to achieve a resource decoupling that brings us on a 1.5 °C pathway [142]. In contrast to these objectives, data suggests that cars are getting heavier and larger: the average mass in running order of newly registered vehicles is increasing by 0.6% per annum (p. a.) [143]. Coupled with continued car sales growth—the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the global vehicle fleet will peak in 2038 with 2.21 billion vehicles on the roads in 2050 [144]—even very ambitious recycling rates and recycled content targets (set at 70%, 9

a While mechanical recycling is dependent on a range of factors, such as quality feedstocks to achieve high quality recyclates suitable for re-employment for automotive parts, chemical recycling technologies have the potential to consistently produce recyclate that is equivalent to virgin polymers. Given that chemical recycling technologies are still relatively nascent, with only a limited number of commercial-scale plants operating (plants that have scaled for an economic return rather than a proof of concept), and given the uncertainties regarding policy and full value chain economics at scale, there is a big factor of uncertainty attached to chemical recycling.

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from 30% today) in newly produced vehicles will not achieve absolute resource decoupling which is required to meet climate targets (see the IPCC LED pathway in Exhibit 4.2). To close this gap and decrease the risk of not following up on increasingly ambitious recycled content targets by OEMs, all circularity levers—from lifetime extension to increased vehicle utilization through shared mobility—should be supported and followed by. Especially a more efficient use of the current vehicle stock, and the materials it is made from, is required to reduce future (virgin) material demand. According to the International Resource Panel, sharing models, including both car-sharing and ride-sharing, have the potential to reduce the total vehicle stock by 13–57% for G7 countries by 2050 while providing the same mobility utility to consumers [146]. A more intensive use of vehicles could decouple car ownership from demand for mobility through, for example, both car-sharing where vehicles are owned collectively but used by individuals through rental, and ride-sharing where vehicles are owned by individuals, but occupancy rates are increased through sharing services. In particular, occupancy rates need to increase in shared mobility systems— a core reason why current ride-hailing services rather increase the vehicle stock and the according vehicle production [147]. The strong association of revenue with new sales and virgin material use needs to be decoupled. Dematerialised, circular business models increasingly showcase the potential to offset revenue losses from less volume-based sales through (digital) services added to the product and enabled by producer ownership [148].

4.2.9 Path 9: Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology allows for near zero carbon emissions in power industry, steel industry and other industries to effectively reduce the life cycle GHG emissions of vehicles related to power and steel. CCUS technology can offset some of the CO2 of which emission is difficult to be reduced in the automotive industry, and ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry. This section mainly describes the development status and prospects of CCUS and related negative emission technologies, analyzes the potential of CCUS technology to reduce carbon emissions in power, steel and other industries, and fully expresses the importance of CCUS technology for carbon neutrality in the automotive industry.

4.2.9.1

Significance of CCUS for Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive Industry

In 2021, the global new energy vehicle industry got good momentum of development, huge potential and unprecedented opportunities, making great contributions to the

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replacement of fossil fuels and effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation industry. However, some carbon emissions in the process of raw material acquisition, vehicle production, and recycling of the automotive industry are difficult to be eliminated through electrification and hydrogenation. Use of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS for short) technology can reduce or offset this part of carbon emissions and further reduce carbon emissions in the automotive industry to achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Combination of CCUS with bioenergy, direct air capture and storage (referred to as DACCS) and other technologies can even achieve negative CO2 emissions, generate a large number of carbon sinks, and ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry. CCUS technology refers to a process in which separation of CO2 from industrial processes, energy use or the atmosphere or direct utilization or storage of CO2 is performed to achieve permanent CO2 emission reduction, as shown in Fig. 4.41. According to the survey results of the Environmental Planning Institute of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2021, there are currently about 40 CCUS demonstration projects in operation or under construction in China, with a capture capacity of 3 million t CO2 /year and a geological utilization and storage capacity of 1.821 million t CO2 /year. The geological storage potential of CO2 in China is about 1.21–4.13 trillion tons [149]. In terms of the application of CCUS technology in the power system and industrial sector and its negative emission potential, the research shows that by 2050, China’s emission reductions through CCUS technology will be about 6–1.45 billion tons of CO2 /year, and by 2060, emission reductions through CCUS technology will be 10–1.82 billion tons of CO2 /year. On a global scale, as stated in the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 2030, the total emission reductions by CCUS in the world will be 100–400 million t CO2 /year, and by 2030, they will be 3–6.8 billion t CO2 /year [150].

Fig. 4.41 CCUS links (Source Administrative Centre for China’s Agenda 21 (2021))

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China attaches great importance to the development of CCUS, and has specially mentioned the promotion of the research and development and pilot demonstration of CCUS in a number of important policy plans such as the Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality and Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030. The Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China released and updated the Technology Roadmap Study on Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage in China in 2011 and 2018, respectively [151]. The overall vision is to build a low-cost, low-energy, safe and reliable CCUS technology system and industrial clusters to provide technical options for low-carbon utilization of fossil energy, technical support for addressing climate change, and technical support for sustainable economic and social development. At the current stage, the cost of CCUS process is mainly incurred in the CO2 capture link. The capture cost is 100–480 yuan per ton of CO2 , and it is expected to be reduced to 20–130 yuan in 2060, effectively supporting the realization of China’s carbon neutrality goal [149]. Power and steel industries-related carbon emissions make up a significant proportion of life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles. This section will focus on the emission reduction potential and development trend of CCUS applications in the power and steel industries in the future, as well as the application prospects of CCUS-related technologies.

4.2.9.2

Low-Carbon Power and Low-Carbon Steel Industries Based on CCUS

In the power industry, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out in the report The Role of CCUS in Low-carbon Power Generation Systems released in 2020 that thermal power plants equipped with CCUS will become an important component of a highly flexible power system in the future [5]. As predicted [6], the emission reductions of the China’s power system based on CCUS is 430 million to 1.64 billion tons under the background of carbon neutrality. As stated in the China Energy and Power Development Outlook 2019, China’s power demand is expected to increase to 12 trillion to 15 trillion kWh per year by 2050. Even if the proportion of thermal power is greatly reduced to about 10%, net zero emissions in the power system can only be realized by reducing emissions of hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 based on CCUS [7]. In the steel industry, production reduction, energy-saving technologies, steel scrap recycling, and new substitution energy can all reduce the carbon footprint of steel production. However, these emission reduction measures cannot completely eliminate the carbon emissions of the steel industry, so it is necessary to deploy CCUS to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals of the steel industry in the carbon neutrality context. In the research on the path of China’s steel industry, many researchers believe that China’s steel industry will begin to widely apply CCUS around 2030, and increase the penetration ratio of CCUS to 15–35% in 2050 [8, 9].

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Table 4.15 CCUS CO2 emission reduction potential of power and steel industries (100 million tons/year) from 2025 to 2060 Year

2025

2030

2035

2040

2050

2060

Power—Coal power

0.06

0.2

0.5–1

2–5

2–5

2–5

Power—Gas power

0.01

0.05

0.2–1

0.2–1

0.2–1

0.2–1

Steel

0.01

0.02–0.05

0.1–0.2

0.2–0.3

0.5–0.7

0.9–1.1

More than 10 forecasts on China’s CCUS emission reduction demand from 2025 to 2060 are stated in the China Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Annual Report (2021). The forecast results of CCUS emission reductions in China’s power and steel industries are as shown in Table 4.15. With the promotion of CCUS, carbon emissions in the power and steel industries will be significantly reduced, effectively reducing life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles. According to the application potential of CCUS in the power and steel industries, the expected contribution of CCUS application to the reduction of emission factors per kilowatt-hour and per ton of steel is as shown in Table 4.16. Under the background of 2060 carbon neutrality goal, the application of CCUS in the power industry is expected to reduce life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles by approximately 0.54 tons, as shown in Table 4.16.

4.2.9.3

CCUS Contribution to Carbon Neutrality in the Automotive Industry

CCUS can recover carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and slow climate warming. The methods to achieve negative emissions include afforestation/reforestation, enhanced weathering (mineral carbonization), etc., but currently, the most concerned technology is the direct air capture and storage (referred to as DACCS) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (referred to as BECCS). DAC refers to a technology through which low-concentration CO2 in the atmosphere can be directly captured, as shown in Fig. 4.42; BECCS refers to a technology through which CO2 in the atmosphere is absorbed during the plant growth, and the absorbed CO2 is permanently stored by using CCUS. It is estimated that by 2060, it will be difficult to reduce the emissions of hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 and some non-CO2 greenhouse gases from China’s power, steel, and transportation industries every year. Through negative emission technologies, CO2 can be directly recovered from the atmosphere to offset this part of carbon emissions, and ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Both DACCS and BECCS have the advantages of flexible installation and adsorbable and distributed CO2 emission sources. According to the forecast data in the China Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Annual Report, the emission reductions in China through BECCS are expected to reach 200–500 million t CO2 /year in 2050, and 300–600 million t CO2 /year in 2060; DACCS emission reduction potential is

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Table 4.16 Forecast of contribution of CCUS application to carbon emission reduction in power and steel industries Parameter

Year 2025

2030

2035

2040

2050

2060

References and basis

Contribution Power 0.0016 0.0038 0.0170 0.0395 0.0363 0.0349 Calculated based of CCUS to industry on the proportion carbon (tCO2 /MWh) of CCUS emission emission factor reductions in the reduction industry and the status quo of carbon emission factors Steel (tCO2 /t 0.0068 0.0085 0.0962 0.1257 0.2040 0.3297 Calculated based crude steel) on the proportion of CCUS emission reductions in the industry and the status quo of carbon emission factors Contribution tCO2 /vehicle 0.0248 0.0590 0.2656 0.6179 0.5672 0.5445 With reference to of CCUS the China application Automobile Low in the power Carbon Action sector to the Plan (CALCP) carbon Research Report emission 2021, it is reduction in assumed that the the service average service stage of life of battery battery electric vehicles electric is 10 years, the vehicles average annual distance traveled is 12,500 km, and the power consumption per 100 km is 12.5 kwh/100 km

expected to reach 50–100 million tCO2 /year in 2050, and 200–300 million tCO2 /year in 2060 [149]. The automotive industry has a long industrial chain and involves many fields, and some emission sources are scattered, making it difficult to completely reduce emissions. It is expected that carbon neutrality will be achieved by combining negative emission technologies such as DACCS and BECCS.

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Fig. 4.42 Climeworks DACCS unit in Switzerland

4.2.9.4

Conclusion

Using CCUS can reduce carbon emissions related to power and steel industries, and effectively reduce life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles. It is estimated that under the carbon neutrality background, in 2060, the contribution of CCUS to reducing the carbon emission factor of power industry is about 0.0349 tons CO2 /MWh, and the contribution to reducing the carbon emission factor of steel industry is about 0.3297 tons CO2 /ton crude steel. Some of the greenhouse gases that are difficult to be reduced in the automotive industry can be offset through DACCS and BECCS, to ultimately achieve the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry.

4.2.10 Path 10: Ecological Carbon Sink 4.2.10.1

Background Information

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that it is necessary to create more material wealth and spiritual wealth to meet the people’s growing needs for a better life, and to provide more high-quality ecological products to meet the people’s growing needs for a beautiful ecological environment. On May 18, 2018, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the National Conference on Ecological and Environmental Protection that to speed up the resolution of ecological and environmental problems in the historical convergence period, we must accelerate the establishment and improvement of an ecological economic

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system with industrial ecologicalization and ecological industrialization as the main body. In April 2021, the Opinions on Establishing and Improving the Value Realization Mechanism of Ecological Products issued by the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council mentioned that the ecological industrialization and industrial ecologicalization should be promoted, and the improvement of government-led sustainable ecological product value realization path with enterprises and all sectors of society involved and marketization operation applied should be accelerated. This series of important deployments and requirements on the supply of ecological products and the realization of their values have put forward new and higher requirements for the automotive industry to adjust the industrial structure, change the production mode, better support the supply of high-quality ecological products, and promote the realization of the carbon neutrality goal. The development of the automotive industry has experienced several different stages, such as “Completely serving and subordinated to economic activities— First serving economic activities and then treating environmental pollution—Serving economic activities while considering environmental protection”. In the stage when the automotive industry completely serves and is subordinate to economic activities, human society basically does not consider the problems of environmental pollution and ecological damage; in the stage when the automotive industry first serves economic activities and then treats environmental pollution, the production technology system of automobiles has not been fundamentally changed to incorporate ecological benefits into the development of the industry; at the present stage, although environmental issues, including material selection, fuel selection, etc., have been considered during the design and production of new automotive technologies, to a certain extent, the mode of first use, first pollution, and then treatment has been abandoned. But objectively, the current development of the automotive industry is still far from a truly systematic automotive industry ecologicalization. Industrial ecologicalization refers to the process in which the industrial system develops in harmony with nature through the transformation or adjustment of its own structure and function. The connotation of this process can be very broad and diverse, including various elements in science, technology and engineering. The automotive industry ecologicalization mentioned herein refers to a virtuous circle in which by taking the automobile product production and sustainable economic and social development as the goals, the saving resources and environmental friendliness as the fundamental basis, and the harmonious co-existence between human and nature as the code of conduct, a green, low-carbon and recyclable process-based system is established in links of production, distribution, circulation, consumption, use and scraping and recycling, to minimize resource consumption and environmental pollution, and to help ecological environmental protection, so that the natural ecosystem can provide more high-quality ecological products, thus forming “industrial development—ecological products—ecological health”. However, there are still problems such as unclear connotation of automotive industry ecologicalization, unclear characteristics of direct products and derivatives produced, and unknown contribution

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value of automotive industry ecologicalization to carbon neutrality and ecological environmental protection. Under the background of the “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” goals and ecological priority, we must cultivate new driving forces for high-quality economic development, deepen the structural reform of the supply side of ecological products, continuously enrich the path for realizing the value of ecological products, cultivate the new model for green transformation and development, and establish an ecological economic system with industrial ecologicalization and ecological industrialization as the main body. The automotive industry ecologicalization is an important part of establishing a sound ecological economic system, which is conducive to making a good ecological environment a strong support for sustainable economic and social development. It brings huge opportunities, including scientific innovation, technological revolution, industrial format, etc. related to automotive industry ecologicalization. It also faces challenges such as accurate identification, accurate accounting, and participation in the realization path of ecological product value.

4.2.10.2

Future Forecast

Facing the future, to cope with the great changes unseen in a century and to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must stand on the new stage of development, resolutely implement the new development concept of “innovation, coordination, green development, openness and sharing”, and strive to build a new development pattern “taking the domestic market as the mainstay while letting domestic and foreign markets boost each other”. The automotive industry ecologicalization provides two types of ecological products. One type is the ecologicalization of the automobiles, which provides ecological industrial products such as automobiles, and the other type is the benign interaction that automobile ecologicalization feeds back the natural ecosystem. The first type is easy to understand, for example, the lowcarbon production and use of automobiles; the second type of ecological products is usually divided into three categories, the first category covers ecological material products, including food, water resources, wood, ecological energy and biological raw materials; the second category covers regulation service products, mainly including water retention, climate regulation, carbon sequestration, oxygen production, soil retention, environmental purification, flood mitigation, sand fixation, etc.; the third category covers cultural service products, mainly including leisure and recreation, eco-tourism, nature education, mental health, etc. For the first type of ecologic automotive industrial products, it is necessary to continuously optimize material technology, production technology and energy supply technology, strive for a turning point in innovative technology with obvious breakthroughs around 2025, and strive to form the complete and clear technical framework and performance characteristics when we hit carbon peak before 2030, to establish a green industrial system, and make due contributions to the realization of carbon neutrality before 2060.

4.2 Ten Transformation Paths for Carbon Neutrality

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For the second type of ecological products, high-quality ecological products come from good ecosystems, and the automotive industry ecologicalization first reduces the damage to the natural ecology and pollution to the environment, and helps to provide more ecological material products, regulation service products and cultural service products; secondly, the automotive industry ecologicalization can free up more space for the natural ecosystem to fix carbon emissions and pollutants from other paths, and provide more ecological products such as carbon fixation, water purification, air purification, and climate regulation. It is also necessary to carry out ecological capitalization operations through ecological industrialization, and transform the ecological benefits contained in ecological products into economic benefits and ecological advantages into economic advantages. This requires that around 2025, a relatively scientific value accounting system for the contribution of natural ecological products to the automotive industry ecologicalization will be initially established, so that some of the ecological advantages arising therefrom can be transformed into economic advantages. By 2035, a complete mechanism for realizing the value of ecological products related to the automotive industry ecologicalization will be established in an all-round way. For example, accounting and value realization research can be carried out with reference to the carbon sink transaction of Inner Mongolia Forest Industry Group. The ecological function area of the Daxinganling forest region operated by Inner Mongolia Forest Industry Group covers an area of 106,700 km2 , with an average annual emissions reductions of 7 million tons of CO2 equivalent. In 2014, Inner Mongolia Forestry Industry Group took the lead in launching the pilot project of forest carbon sequestration in the national carbon sequestration market. In 2017, the first 400,000 yuan forest carbon sequestration was successfully carried out. You can refer to this trading system to calculate the carbon sink contribution in the process of automotive industry ecologicalization and the contribution value to the supply of ecological products, and then set the corresponding trading indicators to develop a new ecological product trading market.

4.2.10.3

Conclusions and Recommendations

The automotive industry ecologicalization is a virtuous circle of “industrial development—ecological products—ecological health” which is formed by taking the harmonious co-existence between human and nature as the code of conduct and by establishing a green, low-carbon and recyclable system. The researchers believe that the automotive industry ecologicalization provides two types of ecological products. One type is the ecologicalization of the automobiles, which provides ecological industrial products such as automobiles, and the other type is the ecological products provided by the natural ecosystem due to the automobile industry ecologicalization, which contains rich ecological product value. These viewpoints are the expansion and extension of the connotation and denotation of automotive industry ecologicalization. However, researchers also find that the definition and connotation of automotive industry ecologicalization are still unclear, the characteristics of its direct products and derivatives are not clear, and the contribution values of automotive industry

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ecologicalization to carbon neutrality and ecological environmental protection are not known. Therefore, for the automotive industry ecologicalization, the researchers put forward the following goals: there will be innovative technologies with obvious breakthroughs in 2025, and strive to form a complete and clear conceptual framework and performance characteristics, and form a green industry when we hit carbon peak before 2030. In 2025, a relatively scientific value accounting system for the contribution of automotive industry ecologicalization to the supply of natural ecological products will be initially established. By 2035, a complete mechanism for realizing the value of ecological products related to the automotive industry ecologicalization will be established in an all-round way. In order to achieve these series of goals, this study puts forward the following policy recommendations: adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping’s ecological civilization thought, and deeply practice the concept of “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets”; further define the definition and connotation of automotive industry ecologicalization, and clarify its product characteristics and classification; further build an ecological economic system with industrial ecologicalization and ecological industrialization as the main body of the automotive industry; carry out value accounting for the contribution of automotive industry ecologicalization to the supply of ecological products, and build an ecological product value accounting system; include carbon fixation products in the carbon market trading system.

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Chapter 5

Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of the Automotive Industry in the Future

5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle On the basis of the low-carbon transformation paths described above, this chapter predicts the future life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles of different fuel types. The emission reduction effect under the five transformation paths of clean electricity, vehicle electrification (energy efficiency improvement), fuel decarbonization, low-carbon materials and production digitalization are considered respectively for prediction, and the combined results of capture, utilization and storage and the previous paths are not listed separately. The emission reduction effect of two paths of transportation intelligence and shared mobility will be described in the emission reduction results of the fleets in the next section. The ecological carbon sequestration is not quantitatively analyzed herein due to insufficient data. According to the three future forecast scenarios established above—the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, this chapter analyzes the life cycle carbon emissions, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions and fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles at the single vehicle level, as well as carbon reduction potentials under carbon reduction paths. Due to the coupling effects between carbon reduction measures, for example, the order in which the two measures such as clean electricity (or fuel decarbonization) and energy efficiency improvement are applied is different, the calculated emission reductions of the two measures may vary. This section makes assessment in the order of clean electricity (or fuel decarbonization), energy efficiency improvement, low-carbon materials, and production digitization.

© China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_5

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5.1.1 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects of Passenger Vehicles (1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel types Figure 5.1 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emission per unit mileage of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles in 2025, 2030, 2050 and 2060 in the three scenarios. As shown in the figure, in the three scenarios, the passenger vehicles of the six fuel types have obvious emission reduction effects, but due to the characteristics of the internal combustion engine, the emission reduction effects of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles after 2050 will have a drop in small amplitude. According to the life cycle carbon emission data per unit mileage from 2021 to 2060, the emission reduction effects of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger

Fig. 5.1 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles

5.1 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of a Vehicle

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vehicles are reduced sequentially. Fuel cell electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious emission reduction effects, with carbon emission per unit mileage reduced by 91, 94 and 95%, respectively in the reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario; followed by battery electric passenger vehicles, of which carbon emission per unit mileage are reduced by 85, 90 and 94% in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario, and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, respectively, but they have much lower difficulty in carbon reduction compared with fuel cell electric passenger vehicles though their carbon reduction potential is close to that of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles. This is because the difficulty in progress of hydrogen production and hydrogen storage technologies is much higher than the clean electricity effects generated by improving the power structure; NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effects, with carbon emission per unit mileage reduced by 40, 44 and 46%, respectively in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario; the emission reduction effects of gasoline passenger vehicles is reduced by 40, 45 and 47%, respectively in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario. In the future, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles will have a larger space for the life cycle carbon emission reduction, while NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and gasoline passenger vehicles will have a smaller space for the life cycle carbon emission reduction. According to the life cycle carbon emission data per unit mileage in 2060, the carbon emission intensities of diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially. Battery electric passenger vehicles have the lowest carbon emission intensity, and its life cycle carbon emission per unit mileage in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario are only 22.8 g CO2 e/km, 15.5 g CO2 e/km and 9.6 g CO2 e/km, which is determined by the low fuel cycle carbon emissions and further rapid decrease of battery electric passenger vehicles; diesel passenger vehicles have the highest carbon emission intensity, and its life cycle carbon emission per unit mileage in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario are 178.8 g CO2 e/km, 165.9 g CO2 e/km and 159.6 g CO2 e/km, respectively; the life cycle carbon emission per unit mileage of gasoline passenger vehicles in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario are 157.7 g CO2 e/km, 146.4 g CO2 e/km and 140.9 g CO2 e/km, respectively. In 2060, gasoline passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles will have higher life cycle carbon emissions, while battery electric passenger vehicles will have obviously low carbon emissions. In addition, as shown in Fig. 5.1, by comparing the passenger vehicles of six fuel types, it can be found that the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel passenger vehiclepassenger vehicles (gasoline passenger vehiclepassenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles) and fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will have overlap to a certain extent in the future, and battery electric passenger vehicles will always have the lowest carbon emissions, which means the development

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direction of the lowest carbon emissions in the future. Based on the detailed analysis, it can be found that in the reference scenario, after 2030, the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will gradually be lower than that of fuel passenger vehicles within a few years; in the low-carbon scenario, in 2030, the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles can be reduced to a level comparable to that of NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles that are relatively low-carbon among fuel passenger vehicles; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, after 2030, the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will be fully lower than those of fuel passenger vehicles within a few years. It can be seen that from the perspective of life cycle carbon emissions, battery electric passenger vehicles have absolute low-carbon emission advantage among passenger vehicles of all fuel types, while fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will gradually have carbon emission advantages with the low-carbon development of the hydrogen production process, and gradually complete the catch-up of fuel passenger vehicles (gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles) from 2025 to 2050. (2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel types Figure 5.2 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emission per unit mileage of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, and fuel cell electric passenger vehicles in 2025, 2030, 2050 and 2060 in the reference, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario. According to the vehicle cycle carbon emission per unit mileage from 2021 to 2060, in the reference scenario, the emission reduction effect of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; fuel cell electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious emission reduction effect, with a 75% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions, while plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effects, with a 70% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions; in the low-carbon scenario, the emission reduction effects of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; fuel cell electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious emission reduction effect, with a 79% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions, while diesel passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effect, with a 74% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the emission reduction effects of the battery electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles and diesel passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; battery electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious

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Fig. 5.2 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles

emission reduction effect, with a 88% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions, while diesel passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effect, with a 75% reduction in vehicle cycle carbon emissions; According to the vehicle cycle carbon emission data per unit mileage in 2060, in the reference scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon emission intensities of plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, and NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles have the highest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 26.7 g CO2 e/km, while gasoline passenger vehicles have the lowest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 17.7 g CO2 e/km; in the low-carbon scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon emission intensities of diesel passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; the diesel passenger vehicles have the highest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 22.2 g CO2 e/km, while battery electric passenger vehicles have the lowest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 13.9 g CO2 e/km; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon emission intensities of diesel passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger

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vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; the diesel passenger vehicles have the highest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 20.9 g CO2 e/km, while battery electric passenger vehicles have the lowest vehicle cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 8.5 g CO2 e/km. To sum up, from 2021 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of various types of passenger vehicles show a steady decline and the decline trend is basically the same. Except for fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, no obvious difference is found among other types of passenger vehicles, and the decline range is 69–88%. The reason is that the vehicle cycle emission reduction measures taken for passenger vehicles of various fuel types are basically the same, and most of emission reductions benefit by the material side. The contribution of the unique hydrogen fuel cell system materials of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles to carbon emission reductions is relatively obvious. (3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles of different fuel types Figure 5.3 shows the forecast of fuel cycle carbon emission per unit mileage of gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, and fuel cell electric passenger vehicles in 2025, 2030, 2050, and 2060 in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario. According to the fuel cycle carbon emission per unit mileage from 2021 to 2060, in the reference scenario, the emission reduction effects of battery electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles and NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; battery electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious emission reduction effect, with a 97% reduction in fuel cycle carbon emissions, which is due to the fact that clean electricity can reach a high level even in the reference scenario, helping battery electric passenger vehicles to achieve greater emission reductions, while hybrid electric passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effect, with a reduction of 27% in fuel cycle carbon emissions; in the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the emission reduction effects of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, and NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; fuel cell electric passenger vehicles have the most obvious emission reduction effect, with a reduction of about 99% in fuel cycle carbon emissions, followed by battery electric passenger vehicles, which have reductions of 98 and 99%, respectively, very close to the level of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles; this is because in low-carbon and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, the progress of hydrogen production and hydrogen storage technologies is sufficient to make the emission reduction effect of fuel cell electric passenger vehicles with higher fuel cycle carbon emissions exceeds that of battery electric passenger vehicles, while hybrid electric passenger vehicles have the minimum emission reduction effect, with reductions of 31 and 34% in fuel cycle carbon emissions.

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Fig. 5.3 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles

According to the fuel cycle carbon emissions data per unit mileage in 2060, in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the fuel cycle carbon emission intensities of diesel passenger vehicles, gasoline passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles, fuel cell electric passenger vehicles, and battery electric passenger vehicles are reduced sequentially; diesel passenger vehicles have the highest fuel cycle carbon emission intensity, reaching 153.6 g CO2 e/km, 143.7 g CO2 e/km and 138.7 g CO2 e/km, respectively, while battery electric passenger vehicles have the minimum carbon emission intensity, reaching 2.2 g CO2 e/km, 1.6 g CO2 e/km and 1.1 g CO2 e/km, respectively. To sum up, the change trend of the fuel cycle carbon emissions is similar to that of life cycle carbon emissions shown in Fig. 5.1. From 2021 to 2060, fuel passenger vehicles (gasoline passenger vehicles, diesel passenger vehicles, NOVC hybrid electric passenger vehicles) will show different decline rates in different scenarios, but the overall carbon emissions are relatively high, which is limited by the development potential of internal combustion engines, while plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles have long been at a relatively low level of carbon emissions, especially battery electric passenger vehicles have always

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been in an absolute low-carbon status, which is determined by the stable and lowcarbon development due to clean electricity. Fuel cell electric passenger vehicles are quite special. Due to the rapid development of the hydrogen production process, the fuel cycle carbon emission level of the fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will rapidly drop to below that of the fuel passenger vehicles in the three scenarios, and will be lower than that of the plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles before 2050, and will approach the level of battery electric passenger vehicles in 2060. (4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric passenger vehicles The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric passenger vehicles have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission reductions in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show that battery electric passenger vehicles will have a high market share, so we choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential in the three scenarios. The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric passenger vehicles is shown in Figs. 5.4 and 5.5. The largest contributor to the emission reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles is clean electricity. In 2030, its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be 19–43%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 51–52%; this is because the carbon emission level has been stabilized to a very low level as the clean electricity of the grid structure develops. In 2030, the contribution of energy efficiency improvement to emission reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles in different scenarios will be 3–6%, and in 2060, its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at about 1%; this is because of the combined effects of energy efficiency improvement and clean electricity on the fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles, and as the use frequency of clean electricity increases and the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. Therefore, among different emission reduction measures, the effect of energy efficiency improvement is the least obvious; the low-carbon materials are also very important for the carbon emission reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles, which can reduce the carbon emissions of battery electric passenger vehicles by 11–21%; with the development of new energy technologies, the production digitalization of battery electric passenger vehicles has an increasingly obvious effect on the carbon emission reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles, with a reduction of 7–20%; under the combined action of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric passenger vehicles will have a maximum reduction of 6% of that in 2021.

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Fig. 5.4 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of passenger vehicles in 2030. a Reference scenario. b Low-carbon scenario. c Enhanced low-carbon scenario

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Fig. 5.5 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of passenger vehicles in 2060. a Reference scenario. b Low-carbon scenario. c Enhanced low-carbon scenario

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5.1.2 Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effects of Commercial Vehicles 5.1.2.1

Forecast of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Commercial Vehicles of Different Fuel Types

(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.6 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, life cycle carbon emissions of fuel light-duty trucks (gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks) from 2020 to 2060 show a steady decline, with a decline range of 34–76%, and in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of gasoline light-duty trucks are reduced by 34, 58 and 71%, the carbon emissions of diesel light-duty trucks are reduced by 45, 66 and 76%, and the carbon emissions of NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks are reduced by 46, 66 and 76%. The life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks show a fast decline, with a decline range over 90%, and in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of battery electric light-duty trucks are reduced by 93, 94 and 95%, and the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks are reduced by 94, 96 and 97%. In addition, as shown in Fig. 5.6, by comparing the life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of five fuel types, it can be found that the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel light-duty trucks (gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel lightduty trucks, NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks) and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks will have intersections and overlaps in the future. As the carbon emission level of the hydrogen production process decreases, fuel cell electric light-duty trucks gradually show their carbon emission advantages in the later stage, while battery electric lightduty trucks are always the models with the lowest carbon emissions, and still mean the development direction of the lowest carbon in the future. Based on the detailed analysis, it can be found that in the reference scenario, after 2030, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks may be gradually reduced to below those of gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks and NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks; in the low-carbon scenario, from 2025 to 2030, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks may be gradually reduced to below those of gasoline light-duty trucks, and after 2030, they may be lower than those of diesel light-duty trucks and NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks; in the enhanced low-carbon scenario, from 2021 to 2025, life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric light-duty trucks may be lower than those of gasoline light-duty trucks, from 2025 to 2030, they may be lower than those of diesel light-duty trucks, and after 2030, they may be lower than those of NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks.

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Fig. 5.6 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

It can be seen that in terms of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover, battery electric light-duty trucks have absolute low-carbon emission advantages in all types of fuel light-duty trucks, while fuel cell electric light-duty trucks gradually have carbon emission advantages with low carbon of the hydrogen production process, and can gradually complete the replacement to fuel light-duty trucks (gasoline lightduty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks) between 2030 and 2050. (2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.7 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, from 2020 to 2050, the life cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types show a steady decline, with a decline range of 65–78%, the decline trend is almost parallel, and there is no intersection among different models. The reason is that the measures taken for the vehicle cycle emission reduction of light-duty trucks of different fuel types are the same, and the difference in emission reductions is only related to the contribution rate of emission reduction measures for light-duty trucks of different fuel types.

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Fig. 5.7 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.8 shows the forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, the change trend of the fuel cycle carbon emissions is similar to that of life cycle carbon emission shown in Fig. 5.7. For fuel light-duty trucks (gasoline light-duty trucks, diesel light-duty trucks, NOVC hybrid light-duty trucks), from 2021 to 2060, the rates of decline will be different in different scenarios. This is related to different set levels of the energy efficiency improvement, the extent of fuel decarbonization and other parameters. For battery electric light-duty trucks and fuel cell electric light-duty trucks, before 2050, the fuel cycle carbon emissions will keep a rapid decline rate, which is related to the rapid development of green power in China, and after 2050, carbon emissions in the power industry will reach a relatively low level, the decline will slow down, and the decline of corresponding fuel cycle carbon emissions will also slow down.

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Fig. 5.8 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of light-duty trucks

(4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric light-duty trucks The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric light-duty trucks have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission reductions in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show that battery electric light-duty trucks will have a high market share, so we choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential in the three scenarios. The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric light-duty trucks is shown in Figs. 5.9 and 5.10. The largest contributor to the emission reduction of battery electric light-duty trucks is clean electricity. In 2030, its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be 29–67%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 79– 81%; this is because the carbon emission level has been stabilized to a very low level as the clean electricity of the grid structure develops. Since the energy efficiency improvement has a limited effect on the carbon emission reduction of battery

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electric light-duty trucks, in 2030, the emission reduction contribution of energy efficiency improvement of battery electric light-duty trucks in different scenarios will be 4–9%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 1%; this is because of the combined effect of energy efficiency improvement and clean electricity on the fuel cycle carbon emission reductions of battery electric passenger vehicles, and. as the use frequency of clean electricity increases and the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. Therefore, among different emission reduction measures, the effect of energy efficiency improvement is limited; with development of low-carbon materials, the use of low-carbon materials in battery electric light-duty trucks has an effect of 4–9% on the carbon emission reduction of battery electric light-duty trucks; the contribution of production digitalization to the life cycle emission reduction of battery electric light-duty trucks only accounts for only 4–9%. This is because the overall carbon emission level of light-duty trucks is relatively high and the production link has a limited impact on it; under the combined action of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric light-duty trucks can be reduced to at most 5% of the level in 2021.

5.1.2.2

Forecast of Life Cycle Carbon Emission of Heavy-Duty Trucks of Different Fuel Types

Heavy-Duty Single-Unit Truck (1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.11 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty singleunit trucks of different fuel types, and the life cycle carbon emissions of them show a steady decline. Among them, the life cycle carbon emissions of trucks fueled by fossil energy (diesel heavy-duty single-unit trucks NOVC hybrid heavy-duty single-unit trucks, and natural gas heavy-duty single-unit trucks) are decreased by no more than 50%. Among the new energy trucks, the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of battery electric heavy-duty trucks will be slightly higher than those of the natural gas heavy-duty trucks in 2021. With the promotion of clean electricity, the natural gas heavy-duty truck will become the model with the lowest carbon emission level in 2060, and the life cycle carbon emission reduction will reach 95%. (2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.12 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types, and it is consistent with the forecast of the life cycle carbon emissions, showing a decline trend year by year. Among them, the decline trend of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of battery electric and NOVC hybrid heavy-duty trucks show a large slope, and can reach 76 and 77%, respectively by 2060. From 2020 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy

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Fig. 5.9 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric light-duty trucks

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Fig. 5.10 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric light-duty trucks in 2060

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Fig. 5.11 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

vehicles and battery electric passenger vehicles will always be higher than those of traditional fuel vehicles, which is mainly due to the high carbon emission levels of new energy-specific parts, such as lithium-ion batteries. (3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.13 shows the results of forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks of different fuel types. It can be seen from the figure, the fuel cycle carbon emission level of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks has always been kept at the lowest level. (4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission reductions in different scenarios. At the current stage, a small number of fuel cell electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks are provided. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show that battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks will have a high market share, so we choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential.

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Fig. 5.12 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks is shown in Figs. 5.14 to 5.15. The largest contributor to the emission reduction of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks is clean electricity. In 2030, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be between 30–68%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 81–83%, this is because the carbon emission level has been stabilized to a very low level as the clean electricity of the grid structure develops. Since the energy efficiency improvement has a limited effect on the carbon emission reduction of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks, in 2030, the emission reduction contribution of energy efficiency improvement of battery electric heavyduty single-unit trucks in different scenarios will account for 6–9%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at about 1%; this is because of the combined effect of energy efficiency improvement and clean electricity on the fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of battery electric passenger vehicles, and as the use frequency of clean electricity increases, the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. With the low-carbon development of materials, the use of low-carbon materials in battery electric heavyduty trucks has an effect of 3–8% on the carbon emission reduction of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks; the contribution of production digitalization to the life cycle emission reductions of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks

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Fig. 5.13 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty single-unit trucks

only accounts for 2–4%. This is because the overall carbon emission level of heavyduty trucks is relatively high and the emissions concentrate in the fuel cycle, and the production link has a limited impact on it; under the combined action of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric heavy-duty trucks can be reduced to at most 5% of the level in 2021. Heavy-Duty Dump Truck (1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.16 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types, and the life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty trucks of different fuel types show a steady decline. Different from heavy-duty single-unit trucks, natural gas dump trucks had the lowest carbon emission level among dump trucks of all fuel types in 2021. However, with the advancement of clean electricity and clean hydrogen production process, advantages of emission reduction of fuel cell electric and battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks are gradually highlighted. In the reference scenario, the emission reduction potential of diesel and natural gas heavyduty dump trucks is relatively limited, and in 2060, the annual carbon emissions will drop by about 45% compared with 2021. The emission reduction potentials of new energy vehicles, such as battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks and fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks can reach 90 and 94%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario,

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Fig. 5.14 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks

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Fig. 5.15 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric heavy-duty single-unit trucks in 2060

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Fig. 5.16 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

the emission reduction potentials of battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks and fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks can reach 92 and 98%. (2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.17 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types, and it is consistent with the forecast of the life cycle carbon emission, showing a decline trend year by year. Among them, the decline trend of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric, battery electric and NOVC hybrid heavy-duty dump trucks shows a large slope, and can reach 66, 67 and 62%, respectively by 2060. From 2020 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy vehicles, battery electric heavy-duty dump trucks and fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks will always be higher than those of traditional fuel heavyduty dump trucks, which is mainly due to the high carbon emission levels of new energy-specific parts, such as lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel system. The vehicle cycle carbon emissions of natural gas heavy-duty dump trucks is almost the same as that of diesel heavy-duty dump trucks, which are difficult to be identified in the figure.

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Fig. 5.17 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks of different fuel types Figure 5.18 shows the results of forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavyduty dump trucks of different fuel types. Consistent with the trend of the life cycle carbon emission forecast, the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks are several times those of heavy-duty dump trucks of other fuel types in 2021. With the development of the clean hydrogen production process, hydrogen fuel will surpass diesel, NOVC hybrid and natural gas to become the fuel type with relative emission reduction advantages from 2040 to 2050, but battery electric is always the fuel option with the lowest carbon emission level. (4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks The aforementioned comparisons show that fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission reductions in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show that fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks will have a high market share, so we choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential. The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks is shown in Figs. 5.19 to 5.20. The largest contributor to

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Fig. 5.18 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty dump trucks

the emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks is fuel decarbonization, that is, the carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel production are gradually reduced. In 2030, its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be 22–45%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 85–92%; the relatively large gap between contribution rates of the two key time nodes is due to the rapid reduction in carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel as the hydrogen production process advances, corresponding to the change trend of fuel cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks; in 2030, the contribution of energy efficiency improvement to the carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks in different scenarios will account for 18–25%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at about 3–7%, and the carbon emission reduction effect of the energy efficiency improvement on fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks is obvious in the early stage, but the effect is gradually attenuated in the later stage. This is because of the combined effects of energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization on the fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks, and as the degree of fuel decarbonization increases, the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. The low-carbon materials and the production digitization have a relatively small contribution to emission reduction, and the combined contribution to the life cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks accounts for only 1–4%, in particular, the contribution of production digitization is almost negligible, because the carbon emissions of heavy-duty trucks are large and concentrated in the fuel cycle, and the low-carbon

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materials and production digitization have little effect on emissions reductions; under the combined effect of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks can be reduced to 2% of the level in 2021. Heavy-Duty Tractor (1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types Figure 5.21 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types, and the life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types show a steady decline. Among them, the life cycle carbon emissions of tractors fueled by fossil energy (diesel heavy-duty tractors, NOVC hybrid heavy-duty tractors and natural gas heavy-duty tractors) reveal a smooth decline. Among the new energy models, the fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors reveal the largest decline rate, from the highest carbon emission level in 2021 to the lowest carbon emission level in 2060, with a drop of 99%. The carbon emission level of battery electric heavy-duty tractors in 2021 was higher than that of natural gas and NOVC hybrid heavy-duty tractors. With the advancement of clean electricity, battery electric heavy-duty tractors will quickly become the models with the lowest carbon emission level before 2030, and their carbon emission level will not be surpassed by that of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors until around 2060, and their life cycle emission reduction potential will reach 95%. As shown in the figure, due to the uncleanness of the current hydrogen production process, the carbon emission level of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors in 2021 was much higher than that of heavy-duty tractors of other fuel types. As the carbon emission level of the hydrogen production process declines, fuel cell electric heavyduty tractors gradually show comparative advantages, and their carbon emission level will surpass those of the diesel heavy-duty tractors, hybrid heavy-duty tractors and natural gas heavy-duty tractors around 2040, and fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors will further become the models with the lowest carbon emission level in 2060. (2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types Figure 5.22 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types, and it is consistent with the forecast results of the vehicle cycle carbon emission, showing a decline trend year by year. Among them, the decline trend of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric, battery electric and NOVC hybrid heavy-duty tractors shows a large slope, and can reach 62, 68 and 63%, respectively by 2060. From 2020 to 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of such new energy heavy-duty tractors as battery electric heavy-duty tractors and fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors will always be higher than that of traditional fuel heavy-duty tractors, which is mainly due to the high carbon emission levels of new energy-specific parts, such as lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen fuel system.

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Fig. 5.19 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks in 2030

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Fig. 5.20 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty dump trucks in 2060

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Fig. 5.21 Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

(3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types Figure 5.23 shows the results of forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors of different fuel types. Consistent with the trend of the life cycle carbon emission forecast, the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors are several times those of heavy-duty tractors of other fuel types in 2021. With the development of the clean hydrogen production process, fuel cell will surpass diesel, NOVC hybrid and natural gas and become the fuel type with relative emission reduction advantages from 2040 to 2050. (4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors After the above comparison, it is found that fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission reductions in different scenarios. Combined with the previous fleet research, the future proportion of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors is more optimistic, so we choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential. The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors is shown in Figs. 5.24 and 5.25. The largest contributor to the

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Fig. 5.22 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors is fuel decarbonization, that is, the carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel production are gradually reduced. In 2030, its emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be between 23–46%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 87–94%; the relatively large gap between contribution ratios of the two key time nodes is due to the rapid reduction in carbon emissions of hydrogen fuel as the hydrogen production process advances, corresponding to the change trend of fuel cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors; in 2030, the contribution of energy efficiency improvement to the carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors in different scenarios will account for 25– 26%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at about 3–7%, and the carbon emission reduction effect of the energy efficiency improvement on fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors is obvious in the early stage, but the effect is gradually attenuated in the later stage; this is because of the combined effect of energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization on the fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors, and as the extent of fuel decarbonization increases, the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. The low-carbon materials and the production digitization have a relatively small contribution to emission reduction, and the

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Fig. 5.23 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of heavy-duty tractors

combined contribution to the life cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors only accounts for 1–2%, in particular, the contribution of production digitization is almost negligible, because the carbon emissions of heavy-duty trucks are large and concentrated in the fuel cycle, and the low-carbon materials and production digitization have little effect on emission reduction; under the combined effect of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors will be reduced to 1% of the level in 2021.

5.1.2.3

Forecast of Life Cycle Carbon Emissions of Buses of Different Fuel Types

(1) Forecast of life cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types Figure 5.26 shows the forecast of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of buses of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, the carbon emissions of buses of five fuel types gradually decrease over time. From 2021 to 2050, the total carbon emissions of buses powered by fossil fuel (diesel buses, natural gas buses, and plugin hybrid buses) will steadily decline, with a decline rate of more than 60%. In the reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario, the

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Fig. 5.24 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors in 2030

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Fig. 5.25 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors in 2060

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carbon emissions of diesel buses are reduced by 68, 80 and 86%, the carbon emissions of natural gas buses are reduced by 64, 77 and 84%, and the carbon emissions of plug-in hybrid buses are reduced by 68, 70 and 72%. The life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric buses and fuel cell electric buses show a rapid decline trend, with a decrease rate of 90%. Among them, in the reference scenario, low-carbon scenario and enhanced low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions of battery electric buses are reduced by 89, 91 and 92%, and the carbon emissions of fuel cell electric buses are reduced by 90, 94 and 96%. Based on the comparison of the buses of five fuel types, it can be found that the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of plug-in hybrid buses and battery electric buses will overlap from 2021 to 2025. This is mainly because plug-in hybrid buses have lower fuel consumption and have advantages in the current situation where clean electricity is still insufficient, the batteries of plug-in hybrid buses are small, and the carbon emissions of batteries are less than those of battery electric buses. It can also be found that life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric buses intersect with those of diesel buses, natural gas buses, and plug-in hybrid buses. With the optimization of hydrogen production process and hydrogen energy source structure, fuel cell electric buses show great advantages in carbon emission reduction, which are mainly manifested after 2040. In this forecast, it is

Fig. 5.26 Forecast of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of buses

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not unknown that the life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover of fuel cell electric buses are not less than those of battery electric buses, so battery electric buses are still the development direction of the lowest carbon emissions in the future. It can be seen that in terms of life cycle carbon emission per unit turnover, battery electric buses still have the lowest carbon emission level among all buses of other fuel types, and fuel cell electric buses gradually have advantages with the low carbonization of the hydrogen production process. They can replace buses fueled by fossil energy from 2030, and after 2050, they will have the ability to compete with plug-in hybrid buses and battery electric buses. (2) Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types Figure 5.27 shows the forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, from 2021 to 2050, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types show a steady decline, with a decline extent of 60–75%, and the decline trend is relatively smooth. In the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of diesel buses are reduced by 70, 74 and 76%, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of plug-in hybrid buses are reduced by 70, 74 and 76%, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of natural gas buses are reduced by 69, 74 and 75%, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of battery electric buses are reduced by 69, 72 and 75%, and the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric buses are reduced by 59, 63 and 65%. The low vehicle cycle carbon emission reduction of fuel cell electric buses is mainly due to the application of a large number of carbon fiber and other materials to the hydrogen storage tanks and to other components, and the emission reduction path for these materials is not yet clear. (3) Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types Figure 5.28 shows the forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of buses of different fuel types. As shown in the figure, the fuel cycle carbon emission reductions of diesel buses, natural gas buses, and plug-in hybrid buses have a less obvious year-to-year decline trend from 2021 to 2060. The main reason is that fossil fuels themselves do not have sufficient low-carbon potential. For buses fueled by fossil energy, the fuel cycle carbon emission reductions mainly result from the reduction of fuel consumption and gas consumption, while the efficiency of internal combustion engines has a small potential to be improved over time. The fuel cycle carbon emissions of fuel cell electric buses decrease most significantly over time. From 2021 to 2060, they will be reduced by 92, 96 and 99% in the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario, and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, respectively. They are basically the same as those of plug-in hybrid buses, but not lower than those of battery electric buses. (4) Analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric buses The aforementioned comparisons show that battery electric buses have excellent performance in life cycle, vehicle cycle and fuel cycle carbon emission reductions

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Fig. 5.27 Forecast of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of buses

in different scenarios. The previously-mentioned fleet researches show that battery electric buses will have a high market share, so we choose them for analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential in the three scenarios. The analysis of life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric buses is shown in Figs. 5.29 and 5.30. The largest contributor to the emission reduction of battery electric buses is clean electricity. In 2030, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will be 24–55%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at 66–67%; this is because the carbon emission level will decline rapidly and stabilize to a very low level in 2060 as the clean electricity of the grid structure develops. Since the energy efficiency improvement has a limited effect on the carbon emission reduction of battery electric buses, in 2030, the contribution of energy efficiency improvement to the carbon emission reduction of battery electric buses in different scenarios will be 6–12%, and in 2060, the emission reduction contribution in different scenarios will stabilize at about 1–2%, which is due to the combined effect of energy efficiency improvement and clean electricity on the fuel cycle carbon emission reduction of battery electric buses, and as the use frequency of clean electricity increases, the emission reduction effect of energy efficiency improvement tends to decrease. With the development of low-carbon materials, the use of low-carbon

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Fig. 5.28 Forecast of fuel cycle carbon emissions of buses

materials in battery electric buses has an effect of 4–14% on the carbon emission reduction of battery electric buses; the contribution of production digitalization to the life cycle carbon emission reduction of battery electric buses will only account for 3–9%. This is because the overall carbon emission level of battery electric buses is relatively high and the emissions concentrate in the fuel cycle, and the production link has a limited impact on it; under the combined action of various factors, in 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric buses will be reduced to at most 8% of the level in 2021.

5.1.3 Summary (1) Carbon emissions of passenger vehicles: The life cycle carbon emissions of battery electric passenger vehicles in various types of passenger vehicles will always be at the lowest level in the future, but fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will present a great emission reduction potential from 2021 to 2050, and reach a carbon emission level close to that of battery electric passenger vehicles in

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Fig. 5.29 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric buses in 2030

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Fig. 5.30 Life cycle carbon emission reduction potential of battery electric buses in 2060. a Reference scenario. b Low-carbon scenario. c Enhanced low-carbon scenario

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2060; battery electric and fuel cell electric passenger vehicles will become the most low-carbon models. (2) Carbon emissions of commercial vehicles: In the future, battery electric commercial vehicles will always have the lowest carbon emissions, so battery electric light-duty trucks and buses may be further recognized by the market, but fuel cell electric commercial vehicles will also gradually offer advantages in carbon emission reductions from 2025 to 2050, the carbon emission level will be gradually lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles, becoming a low-carbon option second only to battery electric commercial vehicles. Due to the operating environment, fuel cell electric heavy-duty trucks will have good development prospects. (3) Analysis of emission reduction potential: For battery electric vehicles or fuel cell electric vehicles, the factor that has the greatest impact on the emission reduction potential in the reference scenario is the fuel decarbonization, that is, the improvement of clean electricity and the low carbonization of China hydrogen production process will be the greatest contribution to the life cycle carbon emission reduction, while the low-carbon measures applied in the production process will have a small effect on carbon emission reduction.

5.2 Analysis of Life Cycle Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Fleets Based on the eight emission reduction paths of the automotive industry, and the life cycle analysis of different fuel types and different model classes, the changing trend of the carbon footprint of automobile products in different scenarios can be quantified at the micro level. Due to the complex structure of vehicle ownership in China, many types of fuels, many types of vehicles, different energy consumption levels of vehicles manufactured in different years, different material emission levels, and different power carbon emission factors, it is difficult to fully evaluate whether the current emission reduction paths can meet the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals in automotive industry in China only based on the analysis of the product level. In order to analyze the emission reduction effect of the automotive industry under the top ten emission reduction paths from a macro level, this study uses the China Automotive Life Cycle Assessment Model of fleet (CALCM-Fleet) to analyze the carbon emission trend of China auto fleet in different scenarios, and evaluate the emission reduction effect of different emission reduction measures.

5.2.1 Forecast of Vehicle Ownership Due to the different driving factors of growth in the number of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, different forecast methods are used. In terms of passenger

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vehicles, it is believed that the increase in the vehicle ownership is mainly related to the factors such as population, resident’s income, and urbanization rate. The forecast is carried out by establishing the model of ownership per thousand people based on the Gompertz curve. Since the ownership of commercial vehicles for cargo transportation is mainly driven by the demand for economic activities, this study uses an elasticity coefficient model to predict the trend of the truck ownership, while the ownership of commercial vehicles for passenger transportation is mainly determined by the mobility demand of residents. The increase of the bus ownership is limited and the bus ownership has shown a decline trend with the development of transportation modes such as subway, high-speed rail, and air transportation. This study makes linear extrapolation according to the relationship between historical bus ownership and the total population. The specific method is described in Sect. 5.2.4. According to the forecast of China macro data, reporting of parameters such as GDP, total population, and urbanization rate of China should be made with reference to the research reports of the United Nations Population Division and related institutions. For the sales of vehicles in the future years, this study calculates the vehicle ownership and the vehicle scrapping in the future years to realize backward calculation of the annual sales of various models based on the vehicle ownership and the vehicle scrapping of each year. The method is described in Sect. 5.2.4. The annual scrapping of various types of vehicles is calculated based on the survival curves of different types of vehicles, and the survival curves are calculated based on the vehicle age data over the years and the retention. For passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, due to differences in vehicle design, use intensity, and mandatory scrapping rules, the survival laws may also vary. In terms of passenger vehicles, this study calculates the survival laws of four types of passenger vehicles: sedans, SUVs, MPVs, and crossover passenger vehicles based on historical data. For commercial vehicles, this study calculates the survival curves of six different types of light-duty singleunit trucks, single-unit trucks, dump trucks, tractors, intercity buses, and city buses respectively. For the same vehicle type, it is assumed that vehicles of different fuel types have the same survival law. According to relevant researches, the survival curve of a vehicle is generally defined by two methods: the first method is based on the registration year of the vehicle, and the survival rate SRa,r is the probability that a vehicle is registered in year r and survives for a years; the second method is based on the survival situation of the vehicle in the previous year, and the concept of the survival rate SRa is the probability that the vehicle continues to survive in the current year under the condition that the vehicle is determined to survive in the previous year. Based on the vehicle age data from 2012 to 2021, this study uses the second survival rate calculation method to fit the survival curves of different types of vehicles. The survival curves of different types of vehicles are shown in Fig. 5.31. According to the calculation results of the model, there is still much room for the growth of China’s vehicle ownership in the future. In terms of the total amount, the vehicle ownership shows a trend of first increase and then decrease. In the early stage, the vehicle ownership per capita is low, and the growth rate of the ownership is relatively high. In the later stage, as the vehicle ownership per capita approaches to saturation, the growth of the vehicle ownership slows down, and then shows a

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Fig. 5.31 Survival curves of different types of vehicles. a Passenger vehicles. b Commercial vehicles

slight decline. In terms of vehicle types, passenger vehicles still account for majority of the vehicle ownership in China, and dominate the changing trend of the vehicle ownership, which is consistent with the growth trend of vehicle ownership, but the passenger vehicle ownership is more affected by the vehicle ownership per capita, and its peak time is earlier than the overall peak time of the vehicle ownership. Commercial vehicles account for a relatively small proportion of the vehicle ownership in China. Since commercial vehicles are mainly used for cargo transportation, the growth trend of their ownership is different from that of passenger vehicles. It is more affected by China’s economic growth. The total ownership of commercial vehicles will show an increase until 2060.

5.2.2 Energy Demand Forecast China petroleum resources are mainly imported, and the automotive industry is one of the main consumers of petroleum products. Vigorously developing new energy vehicles can address climate issues, alleviate China’s dependence on petroleum resources, and ensure China’s energy security. The increase of new energy vehicles will have additional power demand, which will put some pressure on China’s power system under the general trend of renewable energy power generation. This study calculates the future energy demand in the automotive industry based on the forecast of future vehicle ownership and the scenario settings for vehicle energy efficiency and distance traveled. Based on the forecast results of the vehicle ownership, this study calculates the energy demand in China’s future vehicle driving stage in the three scenarios, as shown in Fig. 5.32. In terms of total energy demand, in the three scenarios, the

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future energy demand in China’s automotive industry is expected to peak before 2030. In the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced lowcarbon scenario, the energy demand in the automotive industry will peak in 2029, 2027 and 2025, respectively, and the peak energy demand will be 12.6, 12.2 and 12.0 × 1012 MJ, respectively. By 2060, the total energy demand in the reference scenario will be 8.4 Mtoe, the total energy demand will drop to 7.3 × 1012 MJ in the low-carbon scenario, and to 6.4 × 1012 MJ in the enhanced low-carbon scenario. In terms of energy types, in the reference scenario, the main energy demand in the future automotive industry is still fossil energy. By 2030, the demand for gasoline and diesel will account for about 93.7% of the total energy demand. By 2060, due to the increase in proportion of new energy vehicles, the proportion of gasoline and diesel demand will drop to 58.3%. In the low-carbon scenario, the energy demand in the early stage is still dominated by gasoline and diesel. With the increase of new energy vehicles, especially the share of new energy vehicles in passenger vehicles, the proportion of gasoline will be greatly reduced, but by 2060, traditional fuels will still account for the majority, mainly consumed by commercial vehicles, with diesel accounting for 40.5% of total energy demand by 2060, and power and hydrogen fuel accounting for 23.7 and 31.3%, respectively. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the demand for gasoline and diesel will drop significantly. By 2060, the demand for gasoline and diesel will only account for about 13.2% of the total energy demand, the demand for electric energy will increase to 29.8%, and the demand for hydrogen fuel will be the highest, reaching 55.7%. Fig. 5.32 Forecast of China’s future energy demand in the driving stage of vehicles

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The main energy required by passenger vehicles is gasoline, and the energy demand will continue to rise in the short term. It is expected that the energy demand will reach its peak before 2030, and the total energy demand will account for more than half of the total energy demand in the automotive industry. Since the electrification in the passenger vehicle field has a high level, the energy demand will drop significantly after peaking, as shown in Fig. 5.33. In the reference scenario, the total energy demand of passenger vehicles is expected to peak in 2028, with a peak value of 7.2 × 1012 MJ. The demand for gasoline at the peak time accounts for more than 96.1% of the total energy demand, and the total energy demand keeps declining after peaking to about 2.6 × 1012 MJ by 2060, 64.5% from the peak, of which the demand for gasoline will drop to 46.9%, and the demand for electric energy will rise to 45.5%. In the low-carbon scenario, the total energy consumption of passenger vehicles is expected to peak in 2027, the peak energy consumption is 7.0 × 1012 MJ, and the demand for gasoline accounts for 96.2% of the total energy demand. In 2060, the total energy demand of passenger vehicles will drop to 1.8 × 1012 MJ, 74.3% from the peak, of which the demand for gasoline will drop to 17.9%, the demand for electric energy will rise to 70.5%, and the demand for hydrogen fuel will rise to 11.6%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the total energy demand of passenger vehicles will peak in advance in 2025, and the peak energy consumption will drop to 6.8 × 1012 MJ, which is 6.5% lower than that in the reference scenario. The demand for gasoline accounts for 97.1% of total energy demand. By 2060, the total energy demand will drop to 1.5 × 1012 MJ, with a decrease of 42.0% compared with that in the reference scenario, 78.0% from the peak. The demand for gasoline will account for less than 1% of the total energy demand. The demand for power energy will rise to 80.1%, and the demand for hydrogen fuel will account for 13.2%. Compared with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles have more types, and take diesel as the main energy in the early and medium terms. The changing trend of energy demand in different scenarios may vary, but the overall change is not obvious. As shown in Fig. 5.34, due to the limited extent of electrification of commercial vehicles, there is little room for energy demand to fall, and there is no obvious energy consumption peak. In the reference scenario, the total energy consumption of commercial vehicles will continue to rise in the future. However, due to the reduction of vehicle energy consumption and the promotion of NOVC hybrid commercial vehicles, the rising trend of energy consumption will slow down compared with the historical trend. By 2030, the energy demand of commercial vehicles will reach 5.4 × 1012 MJ, of which the demand for diesel will account for 89.5%. By 2060, the energy demand of commercial vehicles will rise to 5.9 × 1012 MJ, with an increase of 8.2% compared with the total energy consumption in 2030. Diesel will still account for the vast majority of energy demand, about 63.3%. In the low-carbon scenario, the energy consumption level will basically remain stable from 2021 to 2050. After 2050, as the proportion of fuel cell electric commercial vehicles in the vehicle ownership increases significantly, the total energy consumption demand will rise; by 2060, the total energy demand of commercial vehicles will reach 5.5 × 1012 MJ, with a decrease of 6.9% compared with that in the reference scenario. Due to the increase in the proportion of hydrogen fuel cell powered commercial vehicles,

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Fig. 5.33 Forecast of China’s future energy demand in the driving stage of passenger vehicles

the proportion of demand for diesel in the total energy demand will drop to 53.7%, and the proportion of demand for hydrogen fuel will rise to 37.7%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the total energy demand shows a downward trend. By 2060, the total energy demand will drop to 4.7 × 1012 MJ, with a decrease of 16.4% compared with that in the reference scenario. Hydrogen fuel will become the main source of energy demand for commercial vehicles and the demand for it accounts for 68.5.% of the total energy demand, in addition, the demand for power energy accounts for 14.6%, and the demand for diesel drops to 16.7%.

5.2.3 Forecast of Carbon Emission Results Automobiles are the main source of carbon emissions in China’s transportation sector. According to the historical development trend of carbon emissions in China’s automobile sector and with reference to the development experience of developed countries, carbon emission reduction in the automobile sector will be one of the keys to achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. In addition, China’s annual automobile production has long ranked first in the world. Although the carbon emissions generated by the production and assembly of automobiles are lower than those in the driving stage of automobiles, from the perspective of the whole life cycle, the production of automobiles involves a large number of upstream raw materials and components industries and other high energy consumption and high carbon

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Fig. 5.34 Forecast of China’s future energy demand in the driving stage of commercial vehicles

emissions, such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemical industries. The decarbonization in the whole life cycle of the automotive industry can promote carbon emission reduction in other upstream industries from the demand side. This study uses the life cycle assessment model of China’s automobile fleet to calculate the trend of life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry in the three scenarios. Through model calculation, the future life cycle carbon emission trends of China’s automotive industry in the three scenarios are shown in Fig. 5.35. In the reference scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry can achieve the peaking target by 2030, but net zero emissions still face some challenges by 2060. In the reference scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry is expected to peak in 2029, with a peak carbon emissions of 1.37 billion tons, and then begin to decline year by year; by 2060, carbon emissions will drop to 510 million tons, with a drop of 62.8% from the peak carbon emissions, but there is still some gap from net zero emissions. In the low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry will peak in advance in 2022, with a peak carbon emissions of 1.29 billion tons, and a decrease of about 5.8% compared with that in the reference scenario. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions will drop to 270 million tons, with a decrease of 47.1% compared with that in the reference scenario and a decrease of 79.1% compared with the peak carbon emissions in the low-carbon scenario. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions in the automotive industry are also expected to peak in 2022, with a peak carbon emissions of 1.28 billion tons, with a decrease of 6.6% compared with that in the reference scenario. With the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, the life cycle

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Fig. 5.35 Life cycle carbon emission trend of China’s automotive industry

carbon emissions will be greatly reduced. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry will drop to 160 million tons, with a decrease of 68.6% compared with that in the reference scenario and a decrease of 87.5% compared with the peak carbon emissions in the enhanced low-carbon scenario. From the perspective of the source of life cycle carbon emissions, the carbon emissions in the automotive industry still mainly come from the fuel cycle, but with the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will increase, as shown in Fig. 5.36. From 2012 to 2025, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will have a slight decline trend, which is mainly due to the rapid growth of vehicle sales in China during this historical period, resulting in a large number of new vehicles entering the fleet, and the low level of vehicle ownership in China. Therefore, the proportion of new vehicles in the ownership is relatively high. With the increase of vehicle ownership in China, the proportion of new vehicles in the ownership will gradually decrease, so the fuel cycle carbon emissions will gradually increase. In the reference scenario, although the sales volume of automobiles has increased, the decline in fuel cycle carbon emissions is comparable to the decline in vehicle cycle carbon emissions, so the ratio of vehicle cycle carbon emissions to fuel cycle carbon emissions will remain basically the same at 1:4 for a long period of time. The vehicle cycle carbon emissions will rise to 25.1% by 2060. In the low-carbon scenario, as the proportion of new energy vehicles in the ownership continues to increase, and the vehicle cycle carbon emission level of new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, the decline in fuel cycle carbon emissions exceeds the decline in vehicle cycle carbon emissions. By 2060, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions in the life cycle carbon emissions will rise to 37.7%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emission reduction benefits of new energy vehicles will be further enlarged, and the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will continue to rise. By 2060, vehicle cycle carbon emissions will dominate the life cycle carbon emissions, accounting for 66.2%. As far as passenger vehicles are concerned, the life cycle carbon emissions in different scenarios can achieve the target of peaking by 2030, and in the low-carbon

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Fig. 5.36 Changing trend of life cycle carbon emissions in China’s automotive industry

and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, life cycle carbon emissions are close to the target of achieving net zero emissions before 2060, as shown in Fig. 5.37. In the reference scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will peak in 2028, with peak carbon emissions of 827 million tons. After peaking, carbon emissions will continue to decline, but there will still be about 90 million tons of carbon emissions until 2060, and it is difficult to achieve net zero emission by 2060. In the low-carbon scenario, the time to peak of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will be advanced to 2023, and the peak carbon emissions will be about 770 million tons. With the increase in the proportion of electrification of passenger vehicles, it is expected that by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will drop to less than 30 million tons. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the peak carbon emissions are expected to be reached in 2022, and the peak carbon emissions are about 760 million tons. With the strengthening of various emission reduction measures, carbon emissions will drop rapidly after reaching the peak, and the life cycle carbon emissions will drop to less than 30 million tons around 2051. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will be 1 million tons or so.

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Fig. 5.37 Forecast of life cycle carbon emission tend of passenger vehicles in China

From the perspective of life cycle carbon emission sources, due to the deeper electrification of passenger vehicles, the life cycle carbon emissions have a more obvious shifting to the vehicle cycle carbon emissions, as shown in Fig. 5.38. Similar to the overall trend in the automotive industry, the proportion of the fuel cycle of passenger vehicles in the early stage continues to increase. In the reference scenario, as the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles continues to increase, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will continue to increase after reaching the lowest point in 2030. By 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will account for 40.4% of the life cycle carbon emissions. In the low-carbon scenario, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will reach a minimum value of 22.1% in 2026, and then gradually increase with the increase in the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles. By 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions will account for 67.8% of the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions in the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will also reach the lowest point around 2026, and by 2060, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will rise to 79.2% of the life cycle carbon emissions. Figure 5.39 shows the contribution of all types of fuel in the life cycle, fuel cycle, and vehicle cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. In general, the main sources of the three types of carbon emissions are gradually transitioning from traditional fuel passenger vehicles to new energy passenger vehicles. The vehicle cycle transition is faster, and the fuel cycle transition lags behind. In the reference scenario, traditional fuel passenger vehicles are still the main source of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles before 2060. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will account for 50.0% of the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. The fuel cycle carbon emissions are still dominated by traditional fuel passenger vehicles, and by 2060, the fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will only account for 16.8% of the total fuel cycle emissions; from 2032, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will account for more than 50% of the total vehicle cycle carbon

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Fig. 5.38 Changing trend of life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in China

emissions of passenger vehicles, and by 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will account for more than 99%. In the low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will dominate the life cycle carbon emissions from 2046, and by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of new energy vehicles will account for 83.1% of the total carbon emissions; from the perspective of fuel cycle, traditional fuel passenger vehicles will still dominate the carbon emissions in most of the time in the future. By 2060, the carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will account for 47.5% of the total fuel cycle carbon emissions. Affected by the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, from 2030 onwards, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will exceed the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of traditional fuel passenger vehicles. From 2050, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of traditional fuel passenger vehicles will account for less than 1% of the total vehicle cycle carbon emissions. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, from 2041, life cycle carbon emissions of new energy passenger vehicles will account for more than 50% of the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles; in terms of fuel cycle, from 2053, new energy passenger vehicles will become the main emission reduction source, by 2060, due to the basic elimination of traditional fuel passenger vehicles in the ownership, the fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy vehicles will exceed 79.7%; in terms

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Fig. 5.39 Proportion of carbon emissions from passenger vehicles of different fuel types

of vehicle cycle, from 2035, the proportion of the fuel cycle carbon emissions of traditional fuel passenger vehicles will be less than 5%. Due to the large number of types of commercial vehicles, the forecast results of the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in different scenarios have large uncertainty, as shown in Fig. 5.40. Compared with passenger vehicles, since the ownership of commercial vehicles will maintain a continuous growth trend in the future, and the potential for electrification of commercial vehicles is limited, it is more difficult for commercial vehicles to peak the life cycle carbon emissions. Emission reduction measures other than electrification must compensate for the shortage in electrification extent. In the reference scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are expected to enter the peak plateau period in 2030, with peak carbon emissions of about 560 million tons. By 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will drop to 420 million tons. In the low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will start to decline from 2022, and by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will drop to 250 million tons, with a decline of 55.4% compared with those in the reference scenario. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the life cycle carbon emissions of

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Fig. 5.40 Forecast of life cycle carbon emission tend of commercial vehicles in China

commercial vehicles will also start to decline in 2022, and by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will drop to 140 million tons, with a decline of 66.7% compared with those in the reference scenario. Compared with passenger vehicles, the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in the future will mainly come from the fuel cycle carbon emissions, as shown in Fig. 5.41. In the reference scenario, with the increase in the ownership of commercial vehicles, the proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will remain basically unchanged at around 18%, and will increase slightly by 2060, reaching 22.0%. In the low-carbon scenario, due to the increase in the proportion of new energy commercial vehicles, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions to the life cycle carbon emissions will increase from 2035, and the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will reach 34.6% by 2060. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions to the life cycle carbon emissions will remain within 30% before 2047. By 2060, with the increase in the proportion of new energy commercial vehicles, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions will increase to 64.8%. As shown in Fig. 5.42, from the perspective of the carbon emission contribution of commercial vehicles of different fuel types to the life cycle, fuel cycle and vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet, diesel vehicles are the main source of CO2 emissions in the early and medium stages. Since vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are affected by the sales volume of the current year, and vehicle cycle carbon emissions before 2021 are affected by the sales volume of battery electric commercial vehicles, and the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles of different fuel types fluctuate greatly; in the medium and later stages, the main carbon emission source will transit to hybrid commercial vehicles, and in the later stage, the carbon emissions generated by new energy commercial vehicles vary depending on the scenarios. In the reference scenario, the proportions of life cycle carbon emissions and fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles to the total carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet are basically the same, and the proportion of fuel cycle

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Fig. 5.41 Changing trend of life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles in China

carbon emissions in the life cycle carbon emissions is lower; by 2060, the life cycle and fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 20.4 and 9.5% of the life cycle and fuel cycle carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet, respectively. The proportion rises relatively faster. By 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 59.1% of the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleet. In the low-carbon scenario, in terms of life cycle carbon emissions, the proportion of carbon emissions of new energy vehicles in the later term will increase, and by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 33.0% of the total carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet; from the perspective of fuel cycle, traditional fuel is also always the main emission source of fuel cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles, and the proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles increases, but the increase is limited, and by 2060, fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 12.8% of the total fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicle fleet; in terms of vehicle cycle carbon emissions, new energy commercial vehicles will become the main source of vehicle cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleets from 2048, and by 2060, the cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 71.1%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, new energy

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commercial vehicles will become the main source of carbon emissions for commercial vehicle fleets in the later stage. In terms of life cycle carbon emissions, the life cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will exceed those of traditional fuel commercial vehicles in 2050, and by 2060, the life cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 76.9% of the life cycle carbon emissions of the fleets; in terms of fuel cycle carbon emissions, traditional fuel commercial vehicles still dominate, and the fuel cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will increase, and by 2060, they will account for 45.2%; in terms of vehicle cycle carbon emissions, vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will surpass those of traditional fuel commercial vehicles in 2040 and become the largest vehicle cycle carbon emission source of the commercial vehicle fleet, and by 2060, the vehicle cycle carbon emissions of new energy commercial vehicles will account for 94.0% of the total vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the fleet.

Fig. 5.42 Proportion of carbon emissions from commercial vehicles of different fuel types

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5.2.4 Emission Reduction Effect Assessment In the previous section, based on the CALCM-Fleet model, the trends of life cycle, fuel cycle and vehicle cycle carbon emissions of the future passenger vehicles and commercial vehicle in the three scenarios are calculated respectively. In this section, we will use a step-by-step analysis method to analyze the contribution of different transition paths to carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry from the perspective of annual carbon emissions and cumulative carbon emissions, with 2030 and 2060 as the time nodes. There may be coupling effects between emission reduction measures. For example, the order in which the reduction of the carbon emission factor of electricity and the electrification of vehicles are applied is different, and the emission reduction benefits generated by the two measures will vary. In this section, the number of impact parameters of the emission reduction path is taken as the benchmark, and according to the principle of evaluating the path with more impact parameters first, and then evaluating the path with less impact parameters, the assessment is carried out in terms of clean electricity, vehicle electrification, energy efficiency improvement, fuel decarbonization, low-carbon material, production digitization, shared mobility, and resource recycling. In general, as time flies, the emission reduction effect of each emission reduction path has been improved to a certain extent, as shown in Fig. 5.43. In the reference scenario, the electrification of vehicles in the future can product the emission reduction effect to the greatest extent, the emission reduction potential due to the low-carbon materials does not change much over time, the emission reduction effect produced by the improvement of vehicle energy efficiency increases over time, and the emission reduction effect of fuel decarbonization is more obvious in the later stage. In the low-carbon scenario, vehicle electrification still has the largest emission reduction potential. In addition, the emission reduction potential due to vehicle energy efficiency improvement, fuel decarbonization and low-carbon materials has increased. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, vehicle electrification still has the largest emission reduction potential. In the later stage, the main emission reduction potential is reflected in the three transformation paths of vehicle energy efficiency improvement, fuel decarbonization and low-carbon materials. According to the accounting results, the life cycle carbon emissions of China’s automotive industry in 2021 are 1.21 billion tons. If no emission reduction measures are implemented, the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry will increase to 1.71 billion tons by 2030. In the reference scenario, the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the carbon emissions in 2030 will be 1.37 billion tons, 1.15 billion tons and 1.03 billion tons, respectively, as shown in Fig. 5.44. In the reference scenario, the measure with the greatest emission reduction benefits by 2030 is the low-carbon materials, which is expected to be 33% of the emission reductions, followed by the vehicle electrification, which can account for 29% of the emission reductions, the emission reductions due to energy efficiency improvement are about 14%, and emission reductions due to shared mobility accounts for about 11%. The emission reduction benefits of other measures are relatively limited,

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Fig. 5.43 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the life cycle carbon emission reductions of the automotive industry

and the emission reduction proportion is 10% or less. In this scenario, the emission factor of traditional fuels does not change with time, and before 2030, there will be fewer fuel cell electric vehicles, and the emission reduction benefits due to fuel decarbonization will be around 1%. In the low-carbon scenario, vehicle electrification, fuel decarbonization, and low-carbon materials are still the three measures with the highest emission reduction benefits, with emission reduction proportions of 24, 22 and 25%, respectively. The carbon emission factor decreases over time, and the emission reductions due to fuel decarbonization increase significantly. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the emission reductions due to vehicle electrification accounts for 29%, the emission reduction due to using low-carbon materials remains

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Fig. 5.44 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the life cycle carbon emission reductions of the automotive industry in 2030

at around 22%, and the emission reduction benefits of fuel decarbonization account for 17%. In the long run, if no emission reduction measures are taken, the total carbon emissions in China’s automotive industry will rise to 2.22 billion tons by 2060, and the emission reduction effects of different emission reduction paths may vary, as shown in Fig. 5.45. In the reference scenario, it is expected that the life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry will drop to 510 million tons by 2060. In this scenario, vehicle electrification contributes to the carbon emission reduction to the largest extent, accounting for 26% of the total emission reductions. In addition, the vehicle energy efficiency improvement will contribute 22% of carbon emission reduction benefits. Compared with 2030, the contribution of fuel decarbonization to emission reductions will increase to 18%, and the low-carbon materials will contribute 16% of carbon emission reductions. In the low-carbon scenario, fuel decarbonization contributes to the carbon emission reduction to the largest extent, accounting for 27%, followed by vehicle electrification, energy efficiency improvement, and lowcarbon material, with emission reduction rates of 24, 21 and 15%, respectively. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the emission reduction contributions of fuel decarbonization and energy efficiency improvement have increased 35 and 26%, respectively, the emission reduction contribution of low-carbon material remains at 15%, and the emission reduction contribution of vehicle electrification drops to 13%.

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Fig. 5.45 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the life cycle carbon emission reductions of the automotive industry in 2060

Due to the cumulative effect of greenhouse gases, cumulative carbon emissions are another indicator to measure the effect of emissions reductions in the automotive industry. In the short term, if no emission reduction measures are taken, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of the automotive industry will reach 16.1 billion tons by 2030 with 2020 taken as the base year. In different scenarios, the largest contributors to cumulative carbon emission reductions are mainly low-carbon materials and vehicle electrification, as shown in Fig. 5.46. In the reference scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions by 2030 will be 14.6 billion tons, and the cumulative carbon emission reductions will reach 1.5 billion tons, of which the carbon emission reductions due to the low-carbon materials will account for 44%, the carbon emissions due to vehicle electrification will account for 22%, and the emission reductions due to vehicle energy efficiency improvement will account for about 12%. In the low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions will drop to 13.6 billion tons by 2030, down 6.8% compared with those in the reference scenario, of which the carbon emission reductions due to low-carbon materials and fuel decarbonization will account for 33 and 23% of the total emission reductions respectively, and the emission reductions due to vehicle electrification will account for 17%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions will drop to 13

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billion tons by 2030, down 11.0% compared with those in the reference scenario, and the cumulative carbon emission reduction due to low-carbon materials and fuel decarbonization will account for 30 and 18%, respectively. In addition, carbon emission reduction due to vehicle electrification and clean grid will account for 21 and 10%, respectively. In the long run, by 2060, if no emission reduction measures are taken, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of vehicles will reach 77 billion tons. In different scenarios, vehicle electrification has the greatest emission reduction benefits, followed by low-carbon materials, energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization. The carbon emission reduction benefits generated by these four paths account for more than 50% of the cumulative carbon emission reductions. In the reference scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions will drop to 42.2 billion tons by 2060, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 34.8 billion tons, of which vehicle electrification will contribute 35% of the emission reductions, and low-carbon materials and energy efficiency improvement will respectively contribute 19 and 17% of emission reductions. In the low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions will drop to 32.9 billion tons by 2060, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 44.1 billion tons, an increase of 26.7% compared with those in the reference scenario, of which 31% will be contributed by vehicle electrification. The contributions of low-carbon materials, the fuel decarbonization and the energy efficiency improvement will account for 17, 20 and 16%, respectively. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions by 2060 will drop to 26.8 billion tons, and the cumulative carbon emission reductions will reach 50.2 billion tons, an increase of 44.2% compared with those in the reference scenario, in which carbon emissions due to vehicle electrification, energy efficiency improvement, fuel decarbonization and low-carbon materials will account for 27, 17, 24 and16%, respectively. From the perspective of cumulative carbon emissions, by 2060, the cumulative carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will generally be higher than those of commercial vehicles. If no emission reduction measures are taken, the cumulative carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will reach 43.4 billion tons, and the cumulative carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will reach 33.6 billion tons. Different emission reduction paths have different emission reduction effects for passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, as shown in Fig. 5.46. For passenger vehicle fleets, vehicle electrification creates the emission reduction benefits to the largest extent, far exceeding the emission reduction contribution of other measures. The main reason is that in the future, passenger vehicles will be dominated by battery electric passenger vehicles. Under the background of clean electricity, the transformation of passenger vehicles to battery electric passenger vehicles can greatly reduce the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. In the reference scenario, by 2060, the cumulative carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will drop to 20.6 billion tons, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 22.8 billion tons, of which the emission reductions due to vehicle electrification will reach 47%, followed by emission reductions due to low-carbon materials, accounting for about 17%. In addition, the emission reductions due to shared mobility and energy efficiency improvement will account for 13 and 9%, respectively. In the low-carbon scenario, the cumulative

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Fig. 5.46 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the cumulative CO2 emission reductions of the automotive industry

carbon emissions of passenger vehicles will drop to 15.6 billion tons by 2060, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 27.8 billion tons, an increase of 21.9% compared with those in the reference scenario. The carbon emission reduction rates due to vehicle electrification and low-carbon materials will be 48 and 15%, and the emission reduction rate due to other emission reduction paths will be 10% or less. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of

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Fig. 5.47 Contributions of emission reduction paths to the CO2 emission reductions of the passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle fleets in 2060

the passenger vehicle fleet will further drop to 12.3 billion tons, and the cumulative carbon emission reductions will reach 31.1 billion tons, an increase of 51.0% compared with those in the reference scenario. The carbon emission reduction rate due to vehicle electrification has further increased, accounting for 49.0%, followed by the carbon emission reduction rate due to low-carbon materials, accounting for 14%, and the carbon emission reduction rate due to other paths is less than 10%. Compared with passenger vehicles, contributions of different emission reduction measures to the emission reductions of commercial vehicles may vary. Since the life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles are mainly from medium and heavy-duty trucks,

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which are limited by vehicle usage, the electrification path of medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles is mainly applied for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Therefore, the cumulative carbon emissions of commercial vehicle fleets are more affected by the fuel cycle related measures. By 2060, if no emission reduction measures are taken, the cumulative carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will reach 33.6 billion tons. In the reference scenario, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will drop to 21.5 billion tons, and the cumulative carbon emission reductions will reach 12.1 billion tons, of which the cumulative carbon emission reductions due to vehicle energy efficiency improvement will reach 33%, the cumulative carbon emission reductions due to low-carbon materials will reach 22%, and the cumulative carbon emission reductions due to vehicle electrification will only be 4%. In the low-carbon scenario, the cumulative carbon emissions of the commercial vehicle fleet will drop to 17.2 billion tons, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 16.6 billion tons, an increase of 37.2% compared with those in the reference scenario, of which the cumulative carbon emission reductions due to energy efficiency improvement and low-carbon materials will reach 69%, and cumulative carbon emission reductions due to low-carbon materials will reach 20%. In the enhanced low-carbon scenario, the cumulative life cycle carbon emissions of commercial vehicles will drop to 14.5 billion tons, and the cumulative emission reductions will reach 19.1 billion tons, an increase of 57.9% compared with those in the reference scenario, of which the cumulative carbon emission reductions due to vehicle electrification before the energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization measures are taken will reach 8%, and cumulative carbon emission reductions due to energy efficiency improvement and fuel decarbonization can reach 27 and 54%, respectively. In addition, cumulative carbon emission reductions due to low-carbon materials can reach 19%. Compared with the total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles, since the proportion of carbon emissions caused by vehicle production is small, the emission reductions of digital production in different scenarios are all close to 0%.

5.2.5 Summary It can be seen from the above analysis that there is a lot of room for growth of China’s automobile ownership in the future. If the carbon emissions are not effectively controlled, the carbon emissions from the automotive industry will increase rapidly, thus affecting the achievement of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. This section designs three emission reduction scenarios based on ten transformation paths: reference scenario, low-carbon scenario, and enchanted low-carbon scenario, and analyzes the future carbon emission trend of the automotive industry based on the CALCM-Fleet model. The results show that the carbon emissions in the future automotive industry can reach the peak of life cycle carbon emissions before 2030, which is in the range of 1.28–1.37 billion tons of CO2 e. In the long run, there is

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still some pressure to achieve net zero emission before 2060. It is necessary to take emission reduction measures in the whole life cycle and promote the coordinated transformation of different paths. For passenger vehicles, vehicle electrification can provide the greatest emission reduction benefits and is an effective way to reduce life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles. For commercial vehicles, the pressure on carbon emission reduction in the future mainly lies in the fuel cycle carbon emissions of the vehicles. The energy efficiency improvement and the fuel decarbonization are important measures to achieve carbon emission reduction of commercial vehicles.

Chapter 6

Opportunities for the Automotive Industry Under the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Goals

6.1 More Attention to Be Paid to Domestic Carbon Emission Management In 2021, China’s automobile production and sales still rank first in the world, with steady growth in various data and rapid growth of new energy vehicles. Under the background of the steady recovery of the national economy and the accelerated recovery of consumer demand, the automotive industry has sufficient consumption potential. In terms of international trade, the export of automobiles has started a rapid growth trend. The total export volume has doubled compared with 2020. The export volume of new energy vehicles has grown rapidly. Automobile products are becoming important end products of the domestic-international dual circulation of China’s economy. In parallel with the rapid development of the industry, the carbon emissions of China’s automotive industry are increasing year by year. After China solemnly announced the “30·60” carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals in 2020, how to manage carbon emissions has become an important topic in government governance and enterprise development. In recent years, the proportion of CO2 emissions in the automotive industry to the national emissions has been rising with the rapid development of the industry. With the development of new energy in the automotive industry, the focus of automobile carbon emissions is gradually changing, showing the characteristics of shifting from the use of automobile products to the entire industrial chain. The proportion of fuel cycle carbon emissions in the life cycle of a vehicle decreases year by year, the proportion of vehicle cycle carbon emissions is in remorseless rise, and carbon management in the production and manufacturing of vehicle and part materials plays a more important role. At present, the carbon emission management system and carbon reduction goal of China’s automotive industry already exist in embryo. In the Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles 2.0, it is mentioned that the total carbon emissions of China’s automotive industry should peak before the committed national © China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_6

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carbon emission reductions, and total emissions will drop by more than 20% by 2035 [1]. In terms of specific management measures, at present, China’s emission standards and policies for automobiles pay focus on the coordinated governance of fuel consumption and pollutant management at the level of automobile products, which can coordinate CO2 emission control to a certain extent. and management policies for CO2 and other greenhouse gases will soon come into being. At the production level of the enterprise, the management connection between the automobile product level and the enterprise level is not sufficient, and the carbon management path from the perspective of the whole life cycle requires further research. At present, policies and regulations concerning China’s enterprise greenhouse gas accounting standards and carbon market management are moving closer to the entire automotive industrial chain, and automotive enterprises’ greenhouse gas may be included in key management subjects. At the current stage, the focus of industry management is still on the link of product use, and it is gradually extended to links such as supply, production, dismantling, and scrapping. The carbon emission management of China’s automotive industry is characterized by complexity and diversification. There is a lot of development space in various aspects such as coverage, reference standards, management measures, and data collection.

6.1.1 Existing Carbon Emission Management Policies to Be Perfected At present, the management of carbon emissions in China’s automotive industry is mainly based on the energy consumption and air pollutant management system of motor vehicles. The carbon emission management policies from the perspective of automobile road use and the whole life cycle are still under research. The existing management policies have not yet fully covered the carbon dioxide emission control of automobiles. Compared with the international advanced level, China’s carbon emission management policies still need to be perfected. The life cycle carbon emission management of the automotive industry has become the mainstream trend. Internationally, developed countries such as Europe and the United States have long-term plans and relatively well-developed standards and measures for the management of carbon emissions in the automotive industry. Since the European Union proposed a mandatory regulatory policy for carbon emission indicators in 2007, it has issued Regulation (EC) 443/2009 CO2 Emission Performance Standards for Passenger Cars and Light-duty Commercial Vehicles and continuously updated it. More carbon emission regulations are being developed by taking two dimensions of entire life cycle perspective and real use link monitoring into consideration. The carbon emissions of the automotive industry has become an indispensable part of the EU green regulation system, and is changing from a single control to a multi-link, full-cycle control.

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The management effect of existing policies in the road use stage tends to be saturated. According to the calculation of the CATARC-ADC, since 2012, the increasing of passenger vehicle ownership has led to a continuous increase in the energy consumption, pollutant emissions and carbon emissions of the passenger vehicle fleets in the road use stage, while the energy consumption, pollutant emissions and carbon emissions of a vehicle have shown a year-on-year decrease. The main reason for this is that the management policies for energy consumption and pollutants are constantly strict. Limits of Fuel Consumption for Passenger Cars and Measures for the Parallel Administration of the Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises issued in 2016 and 2017 put forward new requirements for energy consumption, and in the Limits and Measurement Methods for Emissions from Light-duty Vehicles issued in 2016 and 2020 requirements for energy consumption have been continuously upgraded. However, as shown in Figs. 6.1, 6.2 and 6.3, under the circumstance that the policy control has been continuously strengthened and the emission reduction goal setting has gradually come the bottleneck stage based on the existing technologies, the induced decline has begun to gradually slow down, the management effect tends to be saturated, and the marginal cost of enterprise implementation increases year by year. If it is necessary to further control the carbon emissions of the automotive industry, the trend is towards shifting the focus of management to the life cycle [2]. Existing policies have some limitations on the management of life cycle carbon emissions of automobiles. As shown in Fig. 6.4, from 2012 to 2021, the total life cycle energy consumption of China’s passenger vehicle fleets increases year by year, while the life cycle energy consumption of a single vehicle decreases year by year. In the life cycle energy consumption, since fuel vehicles still occupy the majority of the current passenger vehicle ownership, the energy consumption in fuel use stage always accounts for the largest proportion of total energy consumption; the proportion of energy consumption in the material production stage to the total energy consumption is also rising slightly. Life cycle carbon emissions and life cycle energy

Fig. 6.1 Total carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in the use stage from 2012 to 2021

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Fig. 6.2 Total energy consumption of passenger vehicles in the use stage in from 2012 to 2021

Fig. 6.3 Total amount of pollutants of passenger vehicles in the use stage from 2012 to 2019

consumption show similar changes. The total carbon emissions of the fleet continues to increase, and the carbon emissions of a single vehicle decrease year by year, and the carbon emissions in the fuel use stage accounts for the largest proportion of total carbon emissions. That is to say, the synergy degree between energy consumption and pollutant management in the whole life cycle is also available. However, judging from the research on the synergy between pollutants and carbon emission management, pollutant emissions show no uniform trend. More than half of the pollutants are generated in the production stage of materials, such as thermal power emissions from upstream production of aluminum alloys, or emissions from reduction of iron ore, etc., the control of product pollutants is not an effective measure for management in this stage. CO2 emissions in the material production process also account for the majority of life cycle carbon emissions.

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Fig. 6.4 Life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicle fleets from 2012 to 2021

On the whole, as the CO2 emissions during the use of products gradually decrease, the carbon emissions management under the existing policies will gradually be weakened in the electrification context. In this context, how to effectively control the upstream carbon emissions of products is the primary problem and challenge to be solved urgently in the carbon management of the automotive industry.

6.1.2 Speeding Up Construction of Carbon Emission Standard System The cornerstone of establishing a management policy system related to the lowcarbon transformation of the automotive industry is to complete the formulation of relevant technical specifications or standards. At present, the special carbon emission management standards at the product level are under research. The standard system with fuel consumption and pollutants as the monitoring objects can achieve a coordinative management effect on carbon emissions to a certain extent, but it plays a limited role in carbon emission management of the automotive industry. At the enterprise level, China has issued 3 batches of CO2 accounting standards for a total of 24 industries, taking the enterprise-level carbon emissions of various industries as the accounting object, but there is still a long way to go before the standard system covers the entire automotive industrial chain; from the perspective of the whole life cycle, it is urgent to introduce a leading carbon footprint standard that can integrate the whole process of product production and use. In the existing system, some domestic institutions, enterprises and competent authorities have already begun the carbon footprint verification and accounting,

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during which two main problems are concerned [3]. The first is that the government, industry institutions, and enterprises “have no standards to follow” during carbon emission management. A series of problems have arisen when enterprises improve their carbon emission management capabilities and formulate reasonable carbon emission action plans due to the blurred standardized and efficient carbon emission accounting system and data management system, which results in the emergence of some “campaign-style carbon reduction” measures. The accounting methods and models developed or purchased by enterprises lead to the vagueness of the objects, scope, boundaries, measurement accuracy and data sources of carbon footprint accounting, and the carbon footprint accounting results of the same type of products are quite different, which increases the workload of data demanders. The second is that the automotive industry has the characteristics of a long industrial chain and a wide range of influence. In addition to the carbon emissions of automobile fuel, it is difficult to report the data of CO2 emissions from the production, loss, recycling and dismantling of raw materials and parts for statistics and accounting. Therefore, carbon emission management in the entire industrial chain first requires to establish an accounting standard that can support the industry in carbon emission management. In contrast to the domestic standard system and management system that have made a start, foreign developed countries have accumulated relatively rich experience in the formulation of automobile carbon emission regulations. In 2017, the United States issued and implemented new light-duty vehicle GHG emission and CAFE standards concerning greenhouse gas emission and fuel economy control for automobile products. As early as 2007, the European Union formally proposed to implement a mandatory regulatory policy based on carbon emission indicators. In 2009, led by the European Commission, with the full participation of all member states, Regulation (EC) 443/2009 was issued. This policy takes automobile enterprises as the main body of responsibility, and takes the CO2 emission per kilometer of automobile products as the core indicator for comprehensive assessment of automobile enterprises. Since then, the EU’s emission regulations have been continuously improved and updated, and carbon emission requirements have been continuously tightened. The latest Regulation (EU) 2019/631 was updated by 2019, which proposes the latest road driving emission target of 95 g/km and the possibility of establishing a full life cycle assessment methodology by 2023. The EU announced that the standard specification for life cycle carbon emissions of automobile products would be formulated not later than 2023. The market mechanism-based measures taken by developed countries to deal with climate change are changing to legal regulation-based measures, and rules concerning climate change are being rewritten. At present, countries and regions such as the European Union, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, New Zealand, Hungary, Spain, Chile, Japan and South Korea have set carbon neutrality goals for 2050. Many countries are actively promoting laws and regulations on the carbon intensity of products, planning to gain a competitive advantage through high environmental standards.

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Carbon emission accounting technical standards are one of the most concerned topics for product carbon emission quantification. In terms of the automobile carbon footprint standard system, the carbon footprint of automobile products should be taken as the basic entry point to gradually establish a life cycle carbon emission standard system including automobiles, materials, parts, batteries, hydrogen fuel, hydrogen fuel cells, recycled materials, etc., which is not only the support for the relevant government departments to carry out carbon emission management in the automotive industrial chain, but also the theoretical basis for the automotive industry enterprises to carry out the capacity building of life cycle carbon emission management [4].

6.1.3 Supply Chain Carbon Data Integrity to Be Improved The automotive industry is both a low-carbon demand side and a supply side, and the construction of a carbon emission accounting system is relatively complex, which requires enterprises to take actions to unify the carbon emission data at all stages of the industrial chain and establish a relatively comprehensive basic database to support the accounting system. The basic database of carbon emissions in China is still a work in progress. At present, there are few site-specific data on carbon emissions in China’s automotive industrial chain. Carbon emissions accounting is mainly based on the average values of data reported by industries or the data calculated by domestic and foreign scientific research institutes and universities. The resulted results cannot accurately reflect the carbon emission levels of enterprises and their products. Indirectly, it has led to the increase in the difficulty of product low-carbon quantification and publicity. In terms of international trade competition, the western developed countries take the lead in carbon emission disclosure power for a long time. The estimated carbon emission factors in China has always been high, which is inconsistent with China’s existing energy development status, making low-carbon competitiveness of China’s export products lower than that of local products. The establishment of a carbon data system is a prerequisite for the quantification of product carbon reduction results, the popularization of carbon reduction benefits, and the participation in low-carbon competition. The complexity of data accounting for all links of the supply chain is relatively high. The automotive industrial chain is large in scale and high in complexity, and it is related to more than 150 industries. A large amount of CO2 emissions may be generated in all links of the life cycle, such as raw material production, transportation, vehicle production, use and scrapping. The accounting involves many processes, and the carbon emission accounting of products provided by different enterprises has differences in data statistical caliber, accounting boundaries and methods. For

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downstream enterprises, especially OEMs, it is a major task to standardize the stepby-step collection of carbon emission information and ensure the integrity, accuracy and timeliness of the data [5]. A unified and consistent life cycle carbon footprint industry database has become an immediate demand. It is a reality faced by the industry to carry out acquisition, storage, mining and analysis of sharable carbon footprint data in the industry to provide a scientific and accurate data basis for the entire industry carbon footprint assessment.

6.1.4 Information Disclosure Mechanism in Further Progress The disclosure of environmental information and carbon information has become one of the international hotspots in the industry, and various stakeholders have increasingly stringent requirements for enterprise information disclosure. After completing the data collection in the industrial chain, enterprises also need to consider how to build an information disclosure system to cope with the supervision of various stakeholders. Research shows that the environmental information disclosure of most of China’s automobile enterprises is still in its infancy, and the topic of concern is still focused on the pollutant emissions of the boundary. In recent years, it has only been extended to carbon management and the entire industrial chain, and the transparency of sustainable development information in all links of the supply chain requires further improvement. Research shows that about half of the enterprises in the industry can disclose key content such as energy and resource consumption, life cycle carbon emissions, and green supply chains. Although some enterprises have raised green development to an important strategy, the information integrity in different links still needs to be improved, and there is a phenomenon of “doing but not speaking”. In terms of product carbon emission information management, research shows that the government-led disclosure of carbon emission information of automobile products has become an international management measure. Developed countries have relevant regulations to guide the disclosure, such as the United States regulations concerning carbon dioxide emissions of light-duty vehicles, the EU’s regulations concerning carbon dioxide emissions of passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, and Germany’s regulations concerning energy consumption labeling of passenger vehicles. The items of disclosure includes vehicle model, fuel type, carbon emissions under different test conditions, fuel consumption and power consumption, etc. Some countries also classify emission reduction and environmental protection for models based on emissions, and increase the market share of products with high environmental protection class using relevant tools and disclosure means.

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The life cycle carbon emission management of automobile products has become a development trend, and the clamor for the life cycle carbon emission management of automobile products by the international community is increasingly high. The assessment for life cycle management in the carbon emission standards for American automobile products has been started. The European Union has clarified the time nodes of life cycle carbon emission management, and has started to upgrade the current carbon management and control measures of vehicles. The issued drafts of EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries have put forward restrictions on the carbon footprint of raw materials of automobile products such as electric power, steel and aluminum and batteries, and it is possible to further expand the scope of carbon emission control in the future.

6.2 Challenges and Opportunities Coexisting in International Competition As shown in Fig. 6.5, with the increasing demand for new energy vehicles in foreign markets, especially the European market, China’s automotive industry can get more and more development opportunities internationally. However, since in the process of China’s products participating in the external circulation of the world economy, the policies and regulations of developed countries on carbon emissions have been continuously tightened, China’s automobile enterprises are facing lowcarbon challenges in participating in international competition, and also facing opportunities to establish their own carbon emission disclosure power and lead the green transformation of the industry. In December 2019, the European Union issued the European Green Deal, proposing the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. In order to cooperate with the implementation of the European Green Deal, the European Union has successively issued a combination of policies such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment

Fig. 6.5 Export trend of China’s automotive industry from 2017 to 2021

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Fig. 6.6 Review of the strategic relationship related to automobiles in the EU carbon emission policies

Mechanism, the Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries, and the Directive on Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence, as shown in Fig. 6.6. The European Union takes the strengthening of carbon emission control as the main line, comprehensively use various means such as taxation and legislation, “reasonably” set up policy obstacles to form invisible trade barriers to the export of China’s automobile products. In the new stage of large-scale development of China’s automobiles, especially when the technological level of new energy vehicles is internationally leading, the European Union is the most important overseas market. It has become an important task that the industry has reached consensus on to strengthen the tracking, research and judgment of relevant policies, promote internal and external efforts, accelerate the establishment of China’s carbon emission policy system, promote collaborative emission reduction in the industrial chain, actively broaden the principled consensus of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, identify challenges ahead of time, study countermeasures, buy a time window, and better promote the “going out” of the industry.

6.2.1 Tighter Carbon Footprint Limits for Automobile Products and Key Parts In terms of product import from outside the EU, the EU is restricting the export of China’s automobile products and key parts to the international market by setting limits on product carbon footprints and the amount of recycled materials, requiring due diligence and setting other binding indicators [6].

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Product carbon footprint will become a barrier to entry for international trade. On March 10, 2022, the draft of the Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries was voted on in the “First Reading” of the European Parliament, and has now been admitted to the “First Reading” procedure of the European Council. The draft makes a series of requirements on the carbon footprint of batteries, carbon footprint performance class, and carbon footprint limits. In the version accepted by the European Parliament, the relevant requirements are further tightened. As shown in Table 6.1, from July 2024, batteries exported to the EU should be affixed with battery carbon footprint labels, and the attached technical documentation should include a carbon footprint statement determined according to the delegated acts; from July 2025, batteries should be affixed with labels indicating the carbon footprint performance class, and a carbon footprint performance class statement should be made in the technical documents; from January 2027, the carbon footprint limit management of products will begin, and a demonstration that the life cycle carbon footprint value is below the maximum limit set by the acts should be made in the attached technical documentation of batteries. According to the calculation of the CATARC-ADC, the carbon footprint of China’s batteries is more than 30% higher than the average level of the EU batteries. According to the existing development trend, it is predicted that China’s batteries will exceed the maximum limit of battery carbon footprint stipulated in the draft of the new regulation concerning batteries. The use of recycled materials creates new requirements for product production. The Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries sets mandatory requirements for the recovery rate and recycling rate of materials such as cobalt, lead, lithium, nickel and other materials for industrial batteries, electric vehicle batteries and automobile batteries, and requires that from January 1, 2027, industrial batteries, electric vehicle batteries and automobile batteries should be attached with technical documentation. For industrial batteries and electric vehicle batteries with a capacity of more than 2 kWh, environmental due diligence is also required for raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, lithium, and lead. In the version passed by the European Parliament, the time requirement for the declaration of the content of recycled materials Table 6.1 EU market battery carbon footprint requirements Date

Control requirements

From 1 July 2024

A carbon footprint statement drafted under the delegated acts shall be included in the attached technical documentation

From 1 July 2025

The carbon footprint performance class statement should be made and a label indicating the battery carbon footprint performance class should be attached, and a statement that the stated carbon footprint and class are calculated in accordance with the delegated acts formulated by the commission should be provided in the technical documentation

From 1 January 2027 It should be demonstrated in the attached technical documentation that the life cycle carbon footprint value is below the limit set by the acts

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has been advanced, the product scope for due diligence is required to be expanded to all batteries, and to some raw materials such as steel, copper, bauxite, etc. This requires China to start materials recycling and reuse for batteries as early as possible, and to study new low-carbon production paths and recycling technologies. Enterprises need to carry out the due diligence in the supply chain. On February 23, 2022, the European Commission published A Proposal for a Directive on Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence. The proposal requires EU enterprises and thirdcountry enterprises above a certain scale to implement mandatory human rights and environmental due diligence obligations, including biodiversity, hazardous waste, hazardous chemicals, mercury waste, etc., and climate change when necessary, and requires enterprises to carry out supply chain investigations to identify, monitor, prevent, mitigate and eliminate potential or actual adverse impacts on human rights and environment in the business activities of the enterprise itself, its affiliated entities, and entities with which the enterprise has established business relationships and are in the enterprise’s value chain, and to submit a third-party certification report.

6.2.2 Gradual Rise in Compliance Costs of Automobile Products and Parts The continuous introduction of international carbon emission policies will increase the direct and indirect costs of China’s export of automobile products and key parts. In terms of direct costs, on July 14, 2021, the European Commission formally proposed a proposal for the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to include imported goods into the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), so that the imported goods should bear the same carbon emission costs as local products as they must the pass the verification of the carbon emissions and the exporting enterprises should purchase the “Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Certificate”. The implementation of CBAM is carried out in two stages, namely the transition period from 2023 to 2025 and the formal implementation period after 2026. During the transition period, it only covers the direct carbon emissions of some energy, raw materials and their direct finished products in the 5 industries of steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer and power, and no relevant fees are charged, but a report on the carbon emissions of the products should be provided to the EU. The policy will be officially implemented from 2026, and the implementation of the policy will be assessed before the end of the transition period, and a decision will be made on whether to expand the scope when it is officially implemented. On December 21, 2021, the European Parliament issued a revised draft of the carbon border adjustment mechanism, which further tightened the requirements. The implementation date was advanced to 2025, and organic chemicals, hydrogen, plastics and their products were added to the product range.

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The accounting scope of CBAM includes the carbon emissions of the goods and the production process of upstream raw materials. This mechanism requires importers to provide actual monitoring data, which will be certified by the EU designated agency; if the actual monitoring data is not available or has not passed the certification, the emission intensity of the goods will be certified as the average emission intensity of 10% similar goods that have the highest emission level. In terms of price, it is linked to the EU-ETS, and the average settlement price of carbon allowance auctions within a complete calendar week is regarded as the approved price. In order to avoid repeated collection of carbon emission fees, if it can be proved that the goods have paid the carbon emission fees in the exporting country, the importer can deduct the corresponding part from it [7]. Under the management of this policy, high carbon tax needs to be paid for the export of Chinese products to the EU. When the CBAM covers downstream products, enterprises need to pay about 400–1000 EUR (fluctuates with EU-ETS carbon price) for the primary materials contained in each vehicle. In terms of indirect costs, exporting enterprises will increase the costs of transformation of production links and the management costs of clean production in the supply chain due to the required carbon footprint limits, in order to meet the carbon footprint limit requirements stipulated in the EU carbon emission policy. Upgrading and transformation indirectly increases the costs of product production. In addition, enterprises must conduct accounting and certification recognized by the EU before exporting products, resulting in additional compliance costs.

6.2.3 Necessary to Establish an Independent Carbon Footprint Disclosure Power of China’s Automobile Products International developed countries have carried out detailed and in-depth research on carbon footprint technologies and carbon footprint indicators. Taking the European Union as an example, it has created a management system covering the whole process of carbon footprint standards, databases, accounting tools, certification marks, etc. at different levels such as management policies, member countries and affiliated enterprises, and has the intention of gradually expanding and extending this system through global trade. In contrast, all aspects of carbon footprint management in China’s automotive industry are in their infancy, and low-carbon competitive advantages need to be clarified. Getting an independent and powerful low-carbon disclosure power in the international market.

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The carbon border adjustment mechanism is another product carbon emission management system that has received a broad international consensus. The European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and many other countries or regions are actively promoting research and formulation of their own carbon border adjustment mechanisms. The necessary condition for China’s products to achieve continuous export and participate in the external economic cycle is to adopt internationally accepted low-carbon standards, technologies or products, which puts forward more stringent requirements for the green development and transformation of China’s automotive industry [8]. International automobile enterprises with leading low-carbon technologies and a large domestic market share begin to gradually export carbon emission standards to China’s automotive industrial chain based on their industrial scale, requiring enterprises in all links of China’s automotive industrial chain to submit carbon emission data reports and report emission reduction indicators. BMW, for example, requires its battery supplier to power battery production with 100% renewable energy, and Volkswagen says renewable power is a prerequisite for awarding contracts to produce high-voltage batteries. In order to respond to international carbon emission policies and improve green and low-carbon competitiveness, Chinese enterprises are taking a series of measures to enhance the autonomy of carbon emission disclosure power. However, due to the energy structure and the domestic green power supply, low-carbon product development and other factors in the industrial chain, enhancement of the autonomy of carbon footprint discourse power requires long-term efforts. Overall, China’s automotive industry faces the multi-faceted challenges in the international carbon footprint competition, but the international challenges also signal the way for the green and low-carbon transformation of independent brands and provide opportunity of shortcuts to make swift progress. China should quickly start with the standard system, data management, green resources, etc., to enhance its own right to speak on carbon emissions.

References 1. China Society of Automotive Engineers (2020) Technology roadmap for energy saving and new energy vehicles 2.0. China Machine Press, Beijing 2. Gan Y, Wang M, Lu Z et al (2021) Taking into account greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles for transportation de-carbonization. Ener Policy 115:112353 3. Tongzhu Z, Nan W (2021) Discussion on the standard system for carbon neutrality in the automotive industry. Automob Parts 17:58–61 4. Li F, Zhao S, Hu Y (2021) Development trend of European new energy vehicle industry and its enlightenment to China. Chin J Autom Eng 11(03):157–163 5. China Automotive Technology & Research Center (2021) China automobile low carbon action plan (CALCP) research report (2021). Feng Yi, Tianjin 6. Melin HE, Rajaeifar MA, Ku A et al (2021) Global implications of the EU battery regulation. Science 373:384–387

References

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7. Li S (2021) Research on the potential impact of carbon tariffs on China’s automobile export. Shanghai International Studies University 8. Eicke L, Weko S, Apergi M et al (2021) Pulling up the carbon ladder? Decarbonization, dependence, and third-country risks from the European carbon border adjustment mechanism. Energy Res Soc Sci 80:110240

Chapter 7

Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development of Automotive Industry for Carbon Neutrality

7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 7.1.1 Construction of Standard System for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry As one of the primary sources of greenhouse gas emissions, the automotive industry is faced with an inevitable choice in the future to carry out the planning and implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals as soon as possible. To implement the carbon peak and carbon neutrality plans, it is necessary to clearly know related data of carbon emissions, which is inseparable from the quantitative accounting standards for carbon emissions. Quantitative accounting is also inseparable from the measurement and monitoring methods of carbon emissions. Besides, the accounting results shall also be subject to external communication and disclosure, verification, assessment, targeted emission reduction and carbon offsetting. These actions shall be carried out under the guidance of standards. Therefore, it is necessary for the automotive industry to establish a unified and standardized carbon emission management basis, carbon emission measurement and monitoring, carbon emission accounting and reporting, carbon verification, labeling, disclosure, assessment and other related standard systems, to guide all major enterprises in the automotive industry to promote the organization and product level carbon emission accounting, disclosure, emission reduction measures and carbon neutrality measures. These actions play an important supporting role for the entire automotive industrial chain to go hand in hand and to coordinate the promotion of carbon neutrality in the automotive industry. At present, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the State Council and other departments have successively issued a series of top-level design documents related to carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and these documents signal the way forward

© China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8_7

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for the construction of carbon neutrality related standard systems in the automotive industry. In October 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the National Standardization Development Outline, This document clarifies the relevant requirements for establishing and improving carbon peak and carbon neutrality standards, and points out that “Speed up the update and upgrade of energy conservation standards, and promptly revise a batch of mandatory national standards in terms of energy consumption quotas and energy efficiency of products and equipment, improve energy consumption quota requirements for key products, expand the coverage of energy consumption quota standards, and improve supporting standards such as energy accounting, testing and certification, assessment and auditing; accelerate the improvement of carbon emission verification and accounting standards for regions, industries, enterprises, and products. Formulate greenhouse gas emission standards for key industries and products, and improve the standard labeling system for low-carbon products; improve renewable energy standards, study and formulate standards for ecological carbon sink, carbon capture, utilization and storage; implement carbon peak, carbon neutrality and standardization improvement project”. Besides, in October 2021, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality. This document clearly specifies the relevant requirements for improving the standard measurement system and points out that “Establish and improve carbon peak and carbon neutrality standard measurement systems; speed up the update and upgrade of energy conservation standards, and promptly revise a batch of mandatory national standards and engineering construction standards in terms of energy consumption quotas and energy efficiency of products and equipment, improve energy consumption quota requirements for key products, expand the coverage of energy consumption quota standards, and improve supporting standards such as energy accounting, testing and certification, assessment and auditing; accelerate the improvement of carbon emission verification, accounting and reporting standards for regions, industries, enterprises, and products, and establish a unified and standardized carbon accounting system; formulate greenhouse gas emission standards for key industries and products, and improve the standard labeling system for low-carbon products; actively participate in the formulation of relevant international standards and strengthen the international convergence of standards”. In October 2021, the General Office of the State Council issued the Notice by the State Council of the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030 (No. 23 [2021] of the State Council). This documents clearly states requirements for “establishing a unified and standardized carbon emission statistics and accounting system” and points out that “Strengthen the capacity building of carbon emission statistics and accounting, deepen the research on accounting methods, and speed up the establishment of a unified and standardized carbon emission statistics and accounting system; support industries and enterprises to carry out research on carbon emission accounting methodologies according to their own characteristics, and establish

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and improve the carbon emission measurement system; promote the development of carbon emission measurement technology, speed up the application of emerging technologies such as remote sensing measurement, big data, and cloud computing in the field of carbon emission measurement technology, and improve the level of statistics and accounting; actively participate in the research of international carbon emission accounting methods, and promote the establishment of a more fair and reasonable carbon emission accounting method system”. Besides, it requires to “Improve laws, regulations and standards; build a legal system conducive to green and low-carbon development, and promote the formulation and revision of the Energy Law, Circular Economy Promotion Law, Electric Power Law, Coal Law, Renewable Energy Law, Circular Economy Promotion Law, and Clean Production Promotion Law. Accelerate the update of energy conservation standards, revise a batch of mandatory national standards and engineering construction standards in terms of energy consumption quotas and energy efficiency of products and equipment, and engineering construction standards, and improve energy conservation and carbon reduction requirements; improve the renewable energy standard system, and speed up the formulation and revision of standards in related fields; establish and improve standards for hydrogen production, storage, transport and use; improve the industrial green and low-carbon standard system; establish carbon emission accounting, reporting, and verification standards for key enterprises, and explore the establishment of carbon footprint standards for the entire life cycle of key products; actively participate in the formulation and revision of international standards for energy efficiency and low carbon, and strengthen the coordination in international standards”.

7.1.1.1

Quantitative Accounting Standards for Greenhouse Gases at Home and Abroad

For the automotive industry, in order to formulate an implementation route for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and to realize the low-carbon development of automobile enterprises and automobile products, the first and foremost thing is to calculate the total amount of carbon emissions, clearly know the basic data of carbon emissions, calculate the carbon footprint from the enterprise organization level and the product level, and promote key energy conservation and emission reduction measures for production links or product parts and materials with high carbon emission level. Finally, for the links where carbon emissions cannot be reduced, carbon credits and other carbon offsetting methods can be used to achieve carbon neutrality. Quantitative accounting of carbon emissions is the basis for carbon emission reduction calculation and carbon trading. Work related to carbon emissions, such as carbon trading, carbon tax, low-carbon assessment, carbon labeling, carbon information disclosure, etc., is based on standard specifications and correct accounting of carbon emissions. Management of carbon emissions should meet the basic monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) principles.

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At present, international authoritative organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), the World Resources Institute (WRI), the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and the British Standards Institution (BSI) have all issued relevant quantification accounting standards for carbon emissions. According to different accounting objects, the standards for quantitative accounting of carbon emissions mainly include standards in the country level, the city level, the enterprise level, the project level and the commodity and service level. Carbon emission accounting methods for different accounting objects may vary. At present, the main accounting methods for carbon emissions are top-down input– output method (I–O) and bottom-up process analysis method. The process analysis method is mainly applicable to the enterprises, organizations, commodities, services, etc. at the macro level. The accounting process is detailed and specific, but the division of cycle stages and boundaries is more complicated. The I–O method is mainly applicable to accounting objects such as countries, industrial departments, regions, etc. at the macro level. The overall energy consumption can be obtained according to statistical data, and the overall carbon emissions can be obtained by multiplying it by the carbon emission factor. The calculation process is simple and the system is complete. Individual nuances of internal carbon emissions cannot be distinguished. The accounting standards for accounting objects at different levels and the purpose of accounting results may also vary. Generally speaking, the quantitative accounting standards for carbon emissions issued and implemented internationally at the country level, the city level, the enterprise level, the project level and the product/service level are as shown in Table 7.1. (1) Country/region/city level: the national carbon emission accounting standards mainly include the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2019) issued by IPCC. The city level carbon emission accounting standards mainly include the GHG Protocol for City Accounting Standards and 2013 Specification for City GHG Emission Assessment (PAS 2070: 2013). Besides, China has issued the Provincial Guidance on the Compilation of Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Trial). Quantitative accounting of carbon emissions at the country, region and local levels is called greenhouse gas inventory compilation, which is used to count the total annual emissions in a region, and the accounting results are used for international compliance or the central government’s supervision over local governments. National, regional, and local carbon neutrality goals are based on total national, regional, and local carbon emissions over a specific time period. (2) Organization level: the accounting standards at the organization level mainly include ISO 14064–1: 2018 Greenhouse gases—Part 1: Specification with Guidance at the Organization Level for Quantification and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard, GHG Protocol: Scope 2 Guidance, GHG Protocol: Corporate Value Chain (Scope 3) Accounting and Reporting Standard, etc.

ISO 14064–2:2019 ISO 14067–2018

/ /

Project level

Produc(product&service) level

/ ISO 14064–1:2018

/

/

ISO/TC207/SC7

/

City level

Enterprise organization level

National greenhouse gas inventories

Country level

Top-down

Bottom-up

IPCC

Object Organization

Table 7.1 International standards for quantitative accounting of carbon emissions

Product life cycle accounting and reporting

Project accounting standards

Enterprise accounting and reporting Scope 2 accounting guidance Enterprise value chain (Scope 3) accounting and reporting

City accounting and reporting

/

WRI/WBCSD: GHG protocol

PAS2050:2011

/

/

PAS2070:2013

/

BSI

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At present, in terms of greenhouse gas accounting, China has also initially established quantitative accounting standards and specifications for many industries. The National Development and Reform Commission has successively issued a series of greenhouse gas accounting methods for enterprises in 24 industries, mainly including the Notice on the Issuance of GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for the First Batch of 10 Industries (Trial) (NDRC Climatology [2013] NO. 2526) issued in October 2013, the Notice on the Issuance of GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for the Second Batch of 4 Industries (Trial) (NDRC Climatology [2014] NO. 2920) issued in December 2014 and the Notice on the Issuance of GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for the Third Batch of 10 Industries (Trial) (NDRC Climatology [2015] NO. 1722) issued in July 2015, as shown in Table 7.2: Besides, the National Technical Committee 548 on Carbon Management of Standardization Administration (SAC/TC 548) has also successively developed quantitative accounting standards for various industries, such as GB/T 32,150–2015 General Guideline of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting and Reporting for Industrial Enterprises and GB/T 32,151.1–GB/T 32,151.12 requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting for enterprises in more than 10 industries, such as power generation enterprises, power grid enterprises, magnesium smelting enterprises, and the results of quantitative accounting can be adopted in carbon emission trading and others. The carbon emission accounting standards for organizations issued by TC 548 are shown in Table 7.3. There are various objects for carbon accounting and assessment analysis at the enterprise level, mainly including the carbon emission accounting at the enterprise’s operation level and the whole value chain level. Enterprise carbon verification and carbon trading are mainly intended to calculate the total annual carbon emissions at the enterprise organization level, including only the direct emissions within the enterprise (Scope 1) and the carbon emissions during the production of electricity and steam purchased by the enterprise (Scope 2). Such accounting methods are used in carbon trading and carbon emission reduction verification. If it is necessary to use the low-carbon supply chain mechanism and the producer responsibility extension mechanism to exert enterprise social responsibility and drive the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain of the enterprise to carry out carbon emission reduction collaboratively, it is necessary to consider the carbon emissions of the whole value chain of the enterprise; the scope of accounting also includes Scope 3 emissions, that is, carbon emissions from upstream procurement, downstream product use and scrapping. (3) Goods/service (product) level: the quantitative accounting of carbon footprint at the product level is mainly based on life cycle assessment. Currently, the standards related to the quantitative accounting of product carbon footprint mainly include ISO 14067–2018 Greenhouse Gases—Carbon Footprint of Products— Requirements and Guidelines for Quantification, Greenhouse Gas Protocol: A Product Life Cycle Accounting and Reporting Standard, PAS2050-2011 Specification for the Assessment of the Lifecycle of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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Table 7.2 Greenhouse gas accounting standards for 24 industries successively issued by the National Development and Reform Commission S/N Issued batch

Name

1

GHG Emission Accounting Methods and 1. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for the First Batch of Reporting Guidelines for Power Generation 10 Industries (Trial) Enterprises (Trial)

2

2. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Power Grid Enterprises (Trial)

3

3. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Iron and Steel Production Enterprises (Trial)

4

4. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Chemical Production Enterprises (Trial)

5

5. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Electrolytic Aluminum Production Enterprises (Trial)

6

6. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Magnesium Smelting Production Enterprises (Trial)

7

7. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Flat Glass Enterprises (Trial)

8

8. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Cement Enterprises (Trial)

9

9. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Ceramic Production Enterprises (Trial)

10

10. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Civil Aviation Enterprises (Trial)

11

GHG Emission Accounting Methods and 1. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for the Second Batch Reporting Guidelines for Oil and Gas of 4 Industries (Trial) Production Enterprises (Trial)

12

2. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Petrochemical Enterprises (Trial)

13

3. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Independent Coking Enterprises (Trial)

14

4. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Coal Production Enterprises (Trial) (continued)

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Table 7.2 (continued) S/N Issued batch

Name

15

1. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Pulp and Paper Making Enterprises (Trial)

GHG Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for the Third Batch of 10 Industries (Trial)

16

2. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Other Non-ferrous Metals Smelting and Rolling Production Enterprises (Trial)

17

3. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Electronic Equipment Production Enterprises (Trial)

18

4. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Manufacture of Mechanical Equipment Enterprises (Trial)

19

5. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Mining Enterprises (Trial)

20

6. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Food, Tobacco, Alcohol, Beverage, and Refined Tea Enterprises (Trial)

21

7. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Public Building Operating Organization (Enterprise) (Trial)

22

8. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Land Transportation Enterprises (Trial)

23

9. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Fluorochemical Enterprises (Trial)

24

10. GHG Emission Accounting Methods and Reporting Guidelines for Other Industrial Enterprises (Trial)

of Goods & Services, TSQ 0010 General Principles for the Assessment and Labeling of Carbon Footprint of Products, EU Product Environmental Footprint Category Rules, etc. PAS 2050 is the first accounting standard for product carbon footprint, and it is also the most widely used product carbon footprint assessment standard before ISO 14067 was officially released. PAS 2050 specifies requirements for the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions during the life cycle of various goods and services (collectively referred to as products) based on the technical methods and principles of life cycle assessment (LCA). ISO 14067 aims to assess the potential impact of a product on global warming based on quantitative results of greenhouse gas emissions and removals over the life cycle. Both standards have the same scope of application, that is, goods and

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Table 7.3 Standards under the jurisdiction of National Technical Committee on Carbon Emission Management of the Standardization Administration (TC 548) S/N

Standard No

English name

1

GB/T 32,150–2015

General guideline of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and reporting for industrial enterprises

2

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part 1: Power generation enterprise

3

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and reporting - Part 2: Power grid enterprise

4

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part 3: Magnesium smelting production enterprise

5

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part 4: Aluminum smelting production enterprise

6

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part 5: Iron and steel production enterprise

7

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part 6: Civil aviation enterprise

8

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part7: Flat glass enterprise

9

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part 8: Cement enterprise

10

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting - Part 9: Ceramic production enterprise

11

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and reporting - Part 10: Chemical production enterprise

12

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and reporting - Part 11: Coal production enterprise

13

GB/T 32,151.1–2015

Requirements of the greenhouse gas emissions accounting and reporting - Part 12: Textile and garment enterprise

services; the implementation is also the same, and both standards are applicable for business-to-consumer assessment, including the emissions generated by the product throughout its life cycle, namely, the “cradle-to-grave” approach, and also applicable for business-to-business assessment, including the GHG emissions (including all upstream emissions) until the input reaches a new organization, namely, the “cradle-to-gate” approach. ISO 14067 is in the same vein as PAS 2050, and the carbon footprint quantification technology is basically the same or can be coordinated, but more clear requirements for the communication of product carbon footprint have been formulated, in order to improve the transparency of carbon footprint quantification and reporting, and achieve the comparison of global-scale carbon footprint data. At present, China has successively issued a series of carbon accounting standards at the product level, mainly covering the electronics and electrical appliances industry, communication industry, etc., including SJ/T 11,717–2018 Carbon

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Footprint of Products—Product Category Rule—LCD Monitor, SJ/T 11,718–2018 Carbon Footprint of Products—Product Category Rule—LCD Monitor—LCD Television, YD/T 3048.2.2–2016 Technical Requirements for Assessment of Carbon Footprint of Communication Products—Part 2: Ethernet Switch, YD/T 3048.1.1– 2016 Technical Requirements for Assessment of Carbon Footprint of Communication Products—Part 1: Mobile Phone, DB11/T 1860–2021 Guidelines for Electronic Information Products Carbon Footprint Accounting, etc. The carbon footprint accounting standard at the product level in the automotive industry is still blank. The product-level carbon footprint accounting is mainly intended to calculate the total carbon emissions in the entire life cycle, including not only Scope 1 and Scope 2, but also the emissions from the production process of the raw material supply chain and the carbon emissions from the downstream use and recycling of products, that is, the Scope 3 carbon emissions. The product carbon footprint accounting results are mainly used for the research and development of low-carbon technologies and the comparison and assessment of the technical routes of similar products, or to levy carbon taxes for the differences in the carbon footprint of similar products between different enterprises or at home and abroad, so as to guide the entire supply chain of the product to carry out carbon emission reductions, guide the society to purchase products with lower carbon footprints, and then promote the whole society to continuously strengthen the power of emissions reductions. (4) Project level: The project-level carbon emission reduction accounting standards mainly include ISO 14064-2:2019 Greenhouse Gases - Part 2: Specification with Guidance at the Project Level for Quantification, Monitoring and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions or Removal Enhancements, GHG Protocol: A Project Accounting Standard, etc. In terms of project carbon emission reduction quantification accounting and reporting, China has released GB/T 33,760-2017 Technical Specification at the Project Level for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions—General Requirements, GB/T 33,755-2017 Technical Specification at the Project Level for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions—Utilization of Waste Energy in Iron and Steel Industry, and GB/T 33,756-2017 Technical Specification at the Project Level for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions—Alternative of Raw Materials in Cement Clinker Production Industry, for the development of emission reduction projects. Standards still in production include technical specification at the project level for assessment of greenhouse gas emission reductions—exhaust gas and waste water treatment and waste residue recycling, etc. China certified voluntary emission reduction trading, etc. The quantitative accounting of carbon emission reductions at the project level is mainly intended to calculate the emission reductions after the implementation of the project by subtracting the carbon emissions from the project implementation from the carbon emission in the reference scenario, which is used to verify the voluntary emission reduction trading, clean development mechanisms and other related applications to encourage voluntary carbon emission reduction investments.

7.1 Policy Measures for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry

7.1.1.2

313

Standards for Verification of Greenhouse Gases at Home and Abroad

For greenhouse gas emissions, the data must be accurate and reliable, can pass thirdparty inspections. At present, the standards and specifications for verification mainly include ISO 14064-3:2019 Greenhouse Gases—Part 3: Specification with Guidance for the Verification and Validation of Greenhouse Gas Statements and ISO 14065:2020 General Principles and Requirements for Bodies Validating and Verifying Environmental Information, so as to standardize the verification and verification bodies and verification and verification activities. In March 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China issued the Verification Guidelines of the Enterprises’ Greenhouse Gas Emission Reports (Trial) to verify the carbon emission reports of key enterprises that have carbon emissions included in carbon emission trading. China’s certification industry has released a series of industry standards related to carbon emission verification in different industries, mainly including RB/T 261-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Ceramic Enterprises, RB/T 260-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Cement Enterprises, RB/T 2592018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Flat Glass Production Enterprises, RB/T 258-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Ethylene Enterprises, RB/T 257-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Methanol Enterprises, RB/T 256-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Ammonia Synthesis Enterprises, RB/T 255-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Calcium Carbide Enterprises, RB/T 2542018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Power Generation Enterprises, RB/T 253-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Power Grid Enterprises, RB/T 252-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Chemical Enterprises, RB/T 251-2018 Technical Specifications for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of Iron and Steel Production Enterprises, RB/T 211-2016 General Specification for Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification of the Organization, etc. At the same time, TC548 National Carbon Emission Management Standards Committee is formulating national standards such as General Guidelines for Carbon Emission Verification of Industrial Enterprises, Greenhouse Gases-Requirements for Qualification Certification or Other Forms of Recognition of Greenhouse Gas Verification Organizations, Requirements for Qualification Conditions of Greenhouse Gas Verification Group and Verification Auditors, etc., to regulate the third-party verification organizations, personnel and behaviors.At present, the standards for carbon emission verification in the automotive industry are still blank, and the research process is being organized.

314

7.1.1.3

7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

Standards for Disclosure of Carbon Emission Information at Home and Abroad

The disclosure of greenhouse gas emission information is an important prerequisite and fundamental guarantee to ensure the realization of the control goal of total amount of greenhouse gas emissions, the smooth implementation of carbon trading, and the promotion of enterprise carbon emission reductions. Research shows that, by clarifying legal system guarantees, improving information disclosure paths, and strengthening supervision and other measures, it is possible to effectively establish a greenhouse gas emission information disclosure system. In May 2021, China issued a notice on the Plan for the Reform of the Legal Disclosure System of Environmental Information. In December 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the Administrative Measures for the Legal Disclosure of Enterprise Environmental Information, proposing relevant requirements for enterprises to disclose environmental information. However, the disclosure requirements for greenhouse gases are not detailed enough, and the relevant requirements such as disclosure content and format are not clear enough. Shaanxi, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other provinces in China have established systems for key enterprises (institutions) to disclose greenhouse gas emission information in stages, with enterprise carbon emissions or energy consumption as the threshold standards, and these systems specify the disclosure content, channels, time limit, etc. The carbon emission information disclosure standards at the level of automobile enterprises and automobile products are still in the research process. TC548 National Carbon Emission Management Standards Committee is formulating the Requirements and Guidelines for Enterprise Carbon Emission Management Information Disclosure.

7.1.1.4

Standards for Carbon Emission Assessment and Constraints at All Stages in the Automobile Product Life Cycle at Home and Abroad

For the carbon emissions of automobile enterprises and automobile products, on the basis of quantitative accounting, low-carbon assessment, or setting limit values in stages for control is an important guiding tool for realizing the low-carbon development of automobile enterprises and automobile products. In terms of the total amount of carbon emissions at the organization level of automobile enterprises, the carbon emission intensity of the unit product production process, the carbon emission intensity of the vehicle service stage, the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in the product life cycle, etc., it is possible to make relevant limits, or carry out low-carbon assessment, to restrict and control the total amount or intensity of carbon emissions.

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(1) Total Carbon Emission Constraints at the Organization Level of Automobile Enterprises At present, for the carbon emission constraints at the organization level of automobile enterprises, pilot carbon emission trading for auto manufacturing enterprises have been carried out in some regions in China, and annual carbon emission quotas have been set, which can be regarded as carbon emission constraints at the organization level of automobile enterprises. The total carbon emissions at the organization level of automobile enterprises are controlled through the emission trading market and the market mechanism. (2) Carbon Emission Intensity Control in the Production Stage of Automobile Products At present, China has carried out the development of the automotive industry standard Calculation Methods of the Comprehensive Energy Consumption of Automobile Products, and the standard QC/T1157-2021 has already been released. This standard mainly focuses on the quantitative accounting of the energy consumption per unit product in the vehicle production stage. The accounting scope includes the total energy consumption of the direct production system, auxiliary production system and ancillary production system of the automobile enterprise, which is divided by the total output of the product to get the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product. In the future, on this basis, it is possible to study and set a limit or advanced value of energy consumption per unit vehicle product to guide the low-carbon development of the vehicle manufacturing process, and reduce the carbon emission intensity at the unit vehicle product manufacturing stage. However, the standard does not consider the impact of different energy types on carbon emissions, nor does it consider non-energy greenhouse gas emissions. At present, TC548 is formulating the General Rules for Compiling Carbon Emission Limits of Unit Products (Services) and Greenhouse Gas Emission Limits of Unit Products of Urban Rail Transit, etc. In the future, the automobile industry will also need to formulate the carbon emission accounting and quota standards for unit output of automobile products. (3) Carbon Emission Intensity in the Vehicle Service Stage (Fuel Economy or Exhaust Emission Limits and Test Methods): For the carbon emission management of motor vehicles, the common practice in the world is to first carry out the emission reductions of air pollutants, and then gradually carry out energy saving and carbon reductions. The carbon emission management policies of various countries are shown in Fig. 7.1. The CO2 emission reduction in the motor vehicle service stage originated from the fuel economy control. As early as the 1970s, the United States and Japan carried out fuel economy control due to the user’s energy saving needs, vehicle technology development and energy security. The EU carried out related work in the 1990s. As the issue of global warming has been paid more and more attention, around 2010, the European Union and the United States respectively issued CO2 emission regulations for motor vehicles, and gradually formed a relatively complete international coordinated management and control of CO2 , fuel

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economy, and air pollutants. At present, the management modes of motor vehicle CO2 emissions are different at home and abroad. Some modes are intended to directly control CO2 , some modes are intended to indirectly control CO2 through fuel consumption, and some modes are intended to control CO2 and fuel consumption. (a) European Union: In 2009, the European Parliament and the European Commission issued the Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 setting emission performance standards for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the EU CO2 Regulation), and the European Commission led the full participation of all member states; the supervision is officially launched in 2012. The regulation requires that the average CO2 emission of newly registered passenger vehicles in the EU in 2015 must reach the target of 130 g/km, and the average CO2 emission of new passenger vehicles should be lower than 95 g/km by 2020. The 2021 target is set at 95gCO2 /km after the regulation was revised in 2014, which is equivalent to a 40% reduction compared to that in 2007. In 2019, the European Union adopted the Regulation (EU) No. 2019/631 setting emission performance standards for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles, replacing the Regulation (EC) No. 443/2009, and it was officially implemented in January 2020. The CO2 emission data of vehicles specified in the EU CO2 regulations must be tested and provided by third-party testing agencies. For the test conditions, 2021 is a watershed, that is, the test conditions before 2021 is the New European Standard Driving Cycle (NEDC), and from 2021, the Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) is adopted. Furthermore, in order to reduce discrepancies between laboratory data and actual road emissions data, the European Commission regularly collects actual CO2 emissions and fuel or energy consumption data from new vehicles using on-board fuel and/or energy consumption monitoring device (OBFCM). (b) United States: In 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) first established greenhouse gas emission standards for light-duty vehicles under Section 202 (a) of the Clean Air Act, limiting greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles and United States

Japan

European Union

China

Control type

Fuel economy, CO2

Fuel economy

CO2

Fuel consumption

Limit basis

Footprint area (track width × wheelbase)

Kerb mass

Kerb mass

Kerb mass

Assessment method

Enterprise average fuel economy + enterprise average CO2 emissions

Enterprise average fuel economy

Enterprise average CO2 emissions

Enterprise average fuel consumption + limits of a single vehicle

Punishment methods

Penalty

Penalty

Penalty

Stop production

Fig. 7.1 Carbon emission management policies of various countries

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light-duty trucks, expressed in g/mile. As early as in 1975, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) set the corporate average fuel economy (CAFEs) for passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, expressed in mpg and developed it as the average fuel economy standard achieved by a fleet of cars produced in a given year. In 2012, the EPA and NHTSA issued the Model Year 2017 and Later LightDuty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (hereinafter referred to as “GHG and CAFE Standards”). EPA has published GHG emission standards for MY2017-2025 light-duty vehicles, and is responsible for managing GHG emissions in the vehicle service stage; NHTSA is responsible for managing CAFE, formulating fuel economy standards for MY2017-2021 light-duty vehicles, and forecasting standards for MY2022-2025 light-duty vehicles. The GHG and CAFE standards are intended to increase fuel efficiency by an average of about 5% per year, with the average fuel efficiency of the entire fleet reaching 46.7 pmg by 2025. In September 2018, NHTSA and EPA proposed to revise the existing GHG and CAFE standards, and to study and formulate new standards covering the MY2021-2026 light-duty vehicles. In April 2020, the Safer Affordable FuelEfficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years 2021–2026 Passenger Vehicles and Light Trucks (hereinafter referred to as the “SAFE Regulation”) was issued and officially implemented in 2021. The SAFE regulation freezes the standard target requirements after 2021, that is, the CO2 target value after 2021 remains unchanged at the 2021 level. (c) China: Since 2001, China has officially launched the research and formulation of the standard system for fuel consumption of motor vehicles, successively formulated and implemented fuel consumption standards for five stages, and established a relatively complete vehicle energy-saving standard system of “single vehicle limit + enterprise average target value”, to promote the realization of China’s ever-improving vehicle energy-saving development goals. At present, China’s standards and regulations on carbon emission intensity of vehicle products mainly include test methods, limits, energy consumption labeling, basic operating conditions, conversion and out-of-cycle technologies for fuel consumption of vehicles of various fuel types. There are 4 standards for fuel consumption limits, 4 standards for test methods, 1 standard for energy consumption labeling, and 3 standards for basic general aspects of gasoline and diesel vehicles. There are 1 test method standard for fuel consumption of hybrid electric vehicles, 1 test method standard for fuel consumption of vehicles powered by alternative fuel, and 3 standards for test methods, limits and labeling for power consumption of battery electric vehicles. 1 test method standard for the fuel consumption of fuel cell vehicles is shown in Fig. 7.2. China has implemented the management of passenger vehicle fuel consumption since 2005. By 2020, China’s passenger vehicle fuel consumption management has experienced four stages of development, and is about to enter the fifth stage.

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Fig. 7.2 China automobile energy conservation standard system (constraint, assessment and control standards for carbon intensity)

The standards and regulations involving low-carbon constraints mainly include fuel consumption limit standards at various stages, as shown in Table 7.4. At present, China has also issued a series of standards for exhaust emission limits and test methods, mainly including China I, China II, China III, China IV, China V, China VI and other emission limits. China 6 emissions standards are currently under implementation. However, at present, China’s exhaust emission standards mainly impose corresponding limits on conventional pollutants, and restrict greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide by restricting the content of conventional pollutants, but do not control the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas in exhaust gas. At the same time, greenhouse gas emissions such as refrigerant leakage have not been included in the relevant accounting and control scope. Table 7.4 China standards and regulations for passenger vehicle fuel consumption S/N

Stage

Date

No

Name

1

Stage 1

2005.07.01

GB 19,578–2004

Limits of fuel consumption for passenger vehicles

2

Stage 2

7/1/2008

3

Stage 3

2012–2016

GB 27,999–2011

Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger vehicles

4

Stage 4

2016–2020

GB 19,578–2014

Limits of fuel consumption for passenger vehicles

GB 27,999–2014

Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger vehicles

PAS2050-2011

Fuel consumption evaluation methods and targets for passenger vehicles

5

Stage 5

2021

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In addition, the transportation industry has issued the grade assessment standards for the energy efficiency and CO2 emission intensity of commercial vehicles for passenger transportation and cargoes transportation, including JT/T 1249–2019 Grades and Evaluation Methods of Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission Intensity of Commercial Vehicle for Passenger Transportation and JT/T 1248–2019 Grades and Evaluation Methods of Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission Intensity of Commercial Vehicle for Cargoes Transportation, and through these standards, the grades of energy efficiency and carbon dioxide emission of commercial vehicles for passenger transportation and cargoes transportation can be evaluated. From the perspective of management categories, the European Union firstly carried out carbon emission management of automobiles, and the United States focused on the management of automobile fuel efficiency in the early stage, and implemented the parallel management of carbon emissions and fuel economy in the later stage. From the perspective of management stage, Europe Union and the United States currently mainly focus on the direct carbon emission management at the vehicle driving stage, and comprehensively consider the life cycle carbon emissions of the vehicles in the standard research process. In the future, the Europe Union has plans to expand the management stage of regulations to the entire life cycle of automobiles, and has adopted various management policies to directly and indirectly control carbon emissions throughout the entire life cycle of automobiles. A comparison of domestic and foreign vehicle carbon emission standards is shown in Table 7.5. China has not yet established a special standard and management system for carbon emissions in the use stage of motor vehicles. CO2 emissions are mainly controlled indirectly by controlling the fuel consumption of motor vehicles. Shortlived greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide, in the form of air pollutants are managed according to pollutant emission standard. The A/C refrigerants, HFCs, are managed in the form of international compliance. The existing fuel consumption standards can only indirectly control the CO2 emissions of motor vehicles, and cannot achieve the regulation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons. The European Union and the United States have included methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons together with CO2 into the scope of greenhouse gas control of motor vehicles, and implemented comprehensive control over exhaust emissions and A/C refrigerants of motor vehicles. In the future, a comprehensive standard system of carbon emission limits and test methods should be established on the basis of the current standards for energy conservation and exhaust emission. (4) Control of Total Carbon Emissions in the Vehicle Use Stage The carbon emission intensity per unit of mileage of a vehicle is a carbon emission potential of the vehicle, and the total carbon emissions at the use stage is also related to factors such as the distance traveled and driving time at the use stage. At present, some regions have included road transportation enterprises

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Table 7.5 Comparison of domestic and foreign vehicle carbon emission standards Countries

European Union

Standard name

CO2 emission GHG) and CAFE standards for standards for passenger vehicles and light-duty vehicles light-duty commercial vehicles

Limits of fuel consumption for passenger vehicles Limits of fuel consumption for light-duty commercial vehicles

Competent authority

European Commission EPA, NHTSA

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

Current standards

Regulation(EC) 443/2009

GB 19,578–2021, GB 20,997–2015

Legal basis

Treaty establishing the EPCA, CAA European Community

None

Vehicle model range

Passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles with a curb mass less than 3,500 kg

Passenger vehicles (M1 category) and light-duty commercial vehicles (N1 category with the maximum design speed greater than or equal to 50 km/h and M2 category with a curb mass less than 3,500 kg)

Management category CO2

United States

SAFE 2021

Passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks with a curb mass less than 8,500 lb (about 3,855.5 kg)

China

Fuel consumption and Fuel consumption greenhouse gases

Boundary range

Vehicle driving stage

Vehicle driving stage

Vehicle driving stage

Target

95 gCO2 /km for passenger vehicles and 147 gCO2 /km for light-duty commercial vehicles in 2021

Target values of GHG emissions and CAFE are 241gCO2 /mile (about 150 gCO2 /km) and 36.9mpg (about 6.9L/100 km), respectively in 2021

In 2025, the CAFE of passenger vehicles will drop to 4L/100 km, corresponding to CO2 emissions of about 95 g/km

Penalty mechanism

95 euros per vehicle CAFE: $5.50 per for every 1 g/km vehicle for every exceeding the standard 0.1mpg below standard; GHG: stop sales and penalty

For enterprises with negative credits as compensation their application for public announcement will be suspended, and they be included in the list of untrustworthy enterprises and publicized

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321

in the local carbon emission trading market to restrict the total annual carbon emissions of transportation enterprises. In the future, around the use stage, it is necessary to establish a standard method for the control of the actual total carbon emissions. For example, formulate accounting standards for annual total carbon emissions of the vehicle owners at the use stage to support the inclusion of the annual carbon emissions of road transport enterprises in carbon emission trading, or establish carbon accounts of individual vehicle owners through the carbon inclusion mechanism to reduce the actual total carbon emissions at the driving stage of the vehicle. At present, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued the Guide to Accounting Methods and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Land Transportation Enterprises, and Beijing has issued the local standard Accounting and Reporting Requirements for Carbon Emissios of Road Transportation. The national standards for carbon emission accounting and control of road transportation enterprises and individual car owners are still blank. (5) Control of life Cycle Carbon Emissions/Intensity of Automobile Products At present, the standards and regulations on the control of life cycle carbon emissions/intensity of vehicles and parts are still blank. The EU battery regulations set requirements for three stages of the life cycle carbon footprint of batteries. The first stage indicates the carbon footprint quantitative labeling, the second stage indicates the carbon emission level labeling, and the third stage declares requirements for compliance to the relevant life cycle carbon footprint limits. In the future, the Europe Union has plans to expand the management of CO2 emission regulations from the use stage to the entire life cycle of automobiles, and has adopted various management policies to directly and indirectly control carbon emissions throughout the entire life cycle of automobiles. WP29/GRPE Working Group of the United Nations has prepared to set up an informal working group on LCA carbon footprint of vehicles, which will build a global automobile technical regulation system around the accounting and control of carbon footprint of the whole vehicle life cycle. At present, China’s standards on the life cycle carbon footprint labeling of vehicles and parts are under study, and the relevant limit standards are still blank. 7.1.1.5

Specifications and Standards for Carbon Neutrality Implementation and Certification at Home and Abroad

PAS2060 published by the British Standards Institution (BSI): The 2010 Specification for the Demonstration of Carbon Neutrality is the first standard in the world in which a carbon neutrality demonstration is proposed, and a new version PAS2060 was released in 2014: 2014 Specification for the Demonstration of Carbon Neutrality. The standard puts forward relevant normative requirements for the certification process of carbon neutrality, the determination and verification of carbon emissions of the subject matter, carbon footprint quantification, carbon neutrality commitment, carbon emission reduction, carbon offsetting, carbon neutrality declaration and maintaining

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carbon neutrality status. ISO/TC207/SC7 has launched the carbon neutrality ISO 14068 research, which is expected to be completed and issued in 2023. The standard is still in the draft stage, and discussions are focused on the scope of the standard, definitions of core terms, emission reduction requirements, and exchange of carbon neutrality information. In 2019, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China issued the Implementation Guidelines for Carbon Neutrality of Large-scale Event (Trial), which specifies the basic requirements, principles, procedures, commitments and assessments of carbon neutrality of large-scale events. In 2021, Beijing issued the local standard DB11/T 1861–2021 Implementation Guidelines for Carbon Neutrality of Enterprises and Institutions, which specifies the implementation process, preparation stage, implementation stage, assessment stage and declaration stage of carbon neutrality of enterprises and institutions in Beijing. At present, the automotive industry has not issued the carbon neutrality implementation guidelines and standards, and most automobile enterprises are in the waitand-see stage for carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on carbon neutrality implementation guidelines as soon as possible to standardize and clarify implementation subjects, subject matters, implementation process, carbon footprint quantification, carbon emission reduction, carbon offsetting, statement, carbon information disclosure and other aspects of carbon neutrality in the automotive industry, and to guide the implementation and certification of carbon neutrality at the organization and product levels in the automotive industry.

7.1.1.6

Analysis of the Implementation Subjects and Subject Matters of Carbon Emission Standardization in the Automotive Industry

According to GB/T 4754–2017 Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities, the automotive industry is a collection of automobile manufacturing enterprises. It mainly includes manufacturing enterprises of vehicles (gasoline and diesel, new energy), engines, modified vehicles, low-speed vehicles, trams, bodies and trailers, parts and accessories. For the automotive industry, automobile manufacturers are responsibility subject of the reduction of carbon emissions from automobile enterprises’ own operations, the whole value chains of the enterprises, and the life cycle of automobile products. It is necessary to make quantitative accounting for their own carbon emissions, upstream and downstream value chain carbon emissions, and product life cycle carbon footprints, and establish targeted emission reduction measures to ultimately achieve carbon neutrality at the enterprise operation level, the whole value chain level and the product life cycle level. Therefore, the implementation subjects of automobile carbon emission standardization mainly include manufacturers of vehicles, batteries and other parts. At the same time, with the implementation of the producer responsibility extension mechanism, automobile enterprises are also responsible for resources, energy and environmental issues in the use, scrap recycling, and recycling links of their

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products. Therefore, the implementation subjects of carbon emission standardization in the automotive industry also include road transportation enterprises, individual owners, ELV recycling and dismantling enterprises, parts remanufacturing enterprises, battery echelon use enterprises and recycling enterprises and other comprehensive utilization enterprises of automobile resources. Different types of enterprises also have different carbon emission sources and accounting boundaries. In addition, it is also necessary to establish relevant standards for carbon emission verification and assessment in order to recognize the accounting results. Therefore, the implementation subjects of the standards also includes third-party verification and certification agencies. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a vehicle carbon emission management standard system for vehicle enterprises, parts production enterprises, comprehensive resource utilization enterprises, and third-party verification and certification enterprises who function as the implementation subjects of standardization. The implementation subjects of carbon emission management standardization in the automotive industry has been clarified, and the standardization object needs to be further clarified, that is, it is necessary to clarify the subject matters for which quantitative accounting, verification and reduction of carbon emissions are carried out by the implementation subjects of standardization. The subjects of standardization of carbon emission management in the automotive industry mainly carry out the accounting, verification and reduction of carbon emissions from the organization level of automobile enterprises and the level of automobile products (vehicles, parts and materials). Furthermore, the automotive industry can also reduce its own carbon emissions by actively developing carbon emission reduction projects, and use them to verify the trading of voluntary emission reductions to subsidize its own emission reduction costs. At the current stage, a carbon emission management standard system can be built in the automotive industry by taking the organization level and product level as the standardization object. The automotive industry has a wide variety of products, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles for passenger transportation, commercial vehicles for cargo transportation, trailers and various types of parts, including new parts, reused parts, remanufactured parts, echelon used parts, recycled materials, etc. Therefore, the accounting boundaries of the carbon footprint of various types of vehicles and parts may also vary, and it is also necessary to establish a quantitative accounting standard for the carbon footprint of various types of vehicles and parts. To sum up, according to the different subject matters of carbon emission management standardization, the automotive industry focuses on the research of carbon emission management standards at the organization level of automobile enterprises and the level of automobile products. For the carbon emissions at the organization level of the enterprise, the carbon emissions in the scope of its own operation and the whole value chain can be calculated separately; for automobile products, the carbon emissions within different boundaries can be calculated according to different types of products. For B-B products, part of the carbon footprint of the “cradle-to-gate” or “gate-to-gate” boundary range can be calculated, and for B-C products, the life cycle carbon footprint of the “cradle-to-grave” boundary can be calculated, and part of carbon footprint of each stage can be decomposed and the carbon footprint quota

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for each stage is set separately, and the carbon emission reductions in each link of the product life cycle can be carried out in stages and step by step. The implementation subjects and subject matters of carbon emission management standardization in the automotive industry are shown in Table 7.6. In addition to the carbon emission quantification accounting standards at the organization level of automobile enterprises and the level of automobile products, automobiles, as mobile energy-consuming devices, are also an important source of carbon emissions in the transportation industry. The gasoline, diesel, natural gas, electricity and other energy sources used in automobile products are equivalent to a part of the automobile, and carbon emissions may also be generated during the production process and the use process. Furthermore, washer fluid and coolant that are continuously added during the use of the automobile, and replaced parts should also be included in the accounting scope of the carbon footprint of the entire vehicle life cycle. Therefore, for the accounting of the carbon footprint of the entire vehicle product life cycle, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the sum of the vehicle cycle carbon footprint and the fuel cycle carbon footprint. Regarding the carbon Table 7.6 Implementation subjects and subject matters of carbon emission management standardization in the automotive industry Standardization implementation subject

Vehicle manufacturing enterprises, automobile parts manufacturing enterprises, comprehensive utilization enterprises of automobile resources, third-party verification and certification agencies, etc.…

Standardization subject matter

Organization level of automobile Automobile product level enterprises

Accounting boundary range

Vehicle manufacturers, body and trailer manufacturers, battery manufacturers, drive motor manufacturers, wheel manufacturers, tyre manufacturers, body parts manufacturers, interior parts manufacturers, automotive glass manufacturers, lead-acid battery manufacturers, recycling and dismantling enterprises, remanufacturing enterprises, echelon use enterprises, recycling enterprises…

Vehicle products (passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles for passenger transportation, commercial vehicles for cargo transportation), bodies and trailers, batteries, drive motors, wheels, tyres, body parts, interior parts, automobile glass, lead-acid batteries, recycled parts, remanufactured products, echelon used products, recycled products…

Operation: Scope 1, Scope 2 Whole value chain: Scope 1, Scope 2, Scope 3

B-B products: cradle-to-gate, gate-to-gate B-C products: cradle-to-grave

Application of accounting Enterprise carbon emission results trading, enterprise low-carbon assessment, carbon emission information disclosure, enterprise carbon neutrality certification, etc

Product carbon footprint labeling, low-carbon product assessment, product carbon tax, product carbon neutrality certification, etc

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325

footprint of the automobile fuel production stage, the energy industry can make accounting and carry out emission reductions. The carbon footprint of fuel and electricity consumed at the automobile use stage can be constrained by the transportation industry to formulate carbon emission reduction targets.

7.1.1.7

Framework of Carbon Neutrality Standard System for the Automotive Industry

To establish the carbon neutrality standard system for the automotive industry, first establish quantitative accounting standards for carbon emissions in the automotive industry, and then clarify the accounting objects, accounting scope, and accounting boundaries. Only by calculating the carbon emissions of each subject matter, can the management of carbon emission reduction be carried out based on the industry average level or the overall emission reduction goal. In addition to the quantitative accounting standards for carbon emissions, it is also necessary to formulate basic general standards, such as terms and definitions for vehicle carbon emission management, to define the special terms required for carbon emission quantitative accounting, emission reduction and carbon neutrality at the automobile enterprise level, automobile product level, fuel level, project level. It is also necessary to carry out research on basic standards, such as automobile life cycle assessment methods and carbon neutrality implementation guidelines for the automotive industry, so as to guide automobile enterprises to carry out life cycle assessment and carbon neutrality implementation at the organization level and product level. The results of carbon emission accounting and quantification should be communicated and disclosed externally. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate relevant standards regarding the carbon footprint labeling of automobile products and the disclosure of carbon emission information of automobile enterprises to guide enterprises to publicize carbon emission information and emission reduction measures at the organization level to the public, and to quantify and disclose the carbon footprint of products by sticking carbon labels on products so that the products can receive the supervision and purchase of customers and the society. Besides, these standards provide basic data support for the subsequent establishment of assessment and limits of low-carbon enterprises and low-carbon products. Carbon emission management should follow the MRV principle to establish a carbon emission monitoring system, and to carry out research on monitoring standards for monitoring methods and monitoring equipment of carbon emission. Prepare accounting reports based on accounting standards, and establish standards regarding carbon verification and product carbon footprint verification at the organization level of the automotive industry, so that third-party agencies or local governments can carry out carbon verification and certification for the automotive industry in accordance with these standards. After obtaining the carbon emission accounting process data and total carbon emission data, low-carbon assessment and emission limiting can be carried out, and carbon emission reduction measures can be taken in a targeted manner. For

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Fig. 7.3 Framework of standardization system for carbon emission management of the automotive industry

example, enterprises can use clean energy, low-carbon materials, recycled materials, and improve the production energy efficiency and product energy efficiency; it is also possible to carry out research on relevant emission reduction technology path standards to guide enterprises to implement the low-carbon emission reduction measures in a standardized manner. Finally, how to carry out carbon neutrality at the organization level and product level of the automotive industry and how to prove whether carbon neutrality is achieved also require establishment of relevant standards to guide automobile enterprise to carry out carbon neutrality implementation and certification. To sum up, the standard system for the carbon neutrality goal of the automotive industry can cover basic general standards, carbon emission monitoring standards, quantitative accounting and reporting standards, carbon emission verification standards, carbon emission assessment and constraints standards, carbon emission reduction technology standards, etc. Figure 7.3 shows the carbon neutrality standard system framework of the automotive industry. 汽车行业碳中和标准体系框架

Carbon neutrality standard system framework of the automotive industry

基础通用 碳排放监测 碳核算及报告 碳核查 评价约束 减排技术

Basic general Carbon emission monitoring Carbon accounting and reporting Carbon verification Evaluation and constraints Emission reduction technology

术语定义分类

Definition and classification of terms

信息披露碳标签

Information disclosure carbon labeling

数据质量管理

Data quality management

碳中和实施指南

Carbon neutrality implementation guidelines

监测设备

Monitoring equipment (continued)

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(continued) 汽车行业碳中和标准体系框架

Carbon neutrality standard system framework of the automotive industry

监测方法

Monitoring method

监测平台

Monitoring platform

监测实施指南

Monitoring implementation guidelines

企业碳核算报告

Enterprise carbon accounting and reporting

车辆产品碳足迹

Vehicle product carbon footprint

汽车燃料碳核算

Automobile fuel carbon accounting

汽车减排项目

Automobile emission reduction item

汽车企业碳核查

Automobile enterprise carbon verification

汽车产品碳核查

Automobile product carbon verification

汽车燃料碳核查

Automobile fuel carbon verification

汽车项目碳核查

Automobile item carbon verification

低碳企业及限额

Low-carbon enterprises and limits

低碳产品及限额

Low-carbon products and limits

低碳燃料及限额

Low-carbon fuel and limits

汽车碳中和评价

Automobile carbon neutrality and assessment

汽车生产能效

Energy efficiency in automobile production

汽车能效及排放

Automobile energy efficiency and emissions

低碳原燃料利用

Low-carbon raw fuel utilization

汽车循环经济

Automotive circular economy

The automotive industry is a pillar industry of China’s national economy. The automotive industrial chain is long and covers a wide range. Although the total carbon emissions of automobile parts manufacturing and vehicle manufacturing are not large, the carbon emissions from automobile-related upstream and downstream industrial chains cannot be ignored. China has to juggle many tasks in a short period of time to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. It is necessary to establish a carbon neutrality standard system for the automotive industry as soon as possible, to guide enterprises to carry out carbon emission monitoring, quantitative accounting and investigation, to carry out carbon emission information disclosure and carbon emission labeling, and to accept third-party carbon verification and certification in a standardized manner. On the basis of accumulated carbon emission data of automobile enterprises and automobile products, implementation of carbon emission reduction in the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain of the automotive industry can be realized in a more efficient and faster manner at the lower cost by researching and formulating assessment standards for low-carbon automobile enterprises and low-carbon products, establishing standards for enterprise carbon emission limits and product carbon footprint limits, and exploring the carbon emission trading, carbon tax and other economic means.

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As the automobile products are the energy-consuming equipment of road transportation, the carbon emission reductions of the fuels and electricity used by automobile products require the coordination and cooperation of the energy industry to develop clean energy, low-carbon fuels, biomass fuels, carbon dioxide synthetic fuels, carbon–neutral fuels, etc., and thus to achieve carbon emission reductions in the process of vehicle use, and also to ensure the emission reductions of the life cycle carbon footprint at the energy industry’s own energy product level. The carbon emission reductions during the use of automobile products also require the transportation industry to reduce the total carbon footprint of vehicles in the use process by carrying out carbon emission reductions at the enterprise level and transportation service level. and to ensure the achievement of carbon emission reduction goals at the enterprise level and transport service level of the transportation industry. The automotive, transportation, and energy industries form a close and complete “carbon chain”. They are interrelated, supported and restrained by each other. The formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals and strategies in these industries must achieve all-round coordination to ensure that goals of them can be achieved. It is not allowed that other industries have no place to survive due to the carbon neutrality goals of one industry. It is also necessary for the state to scientifically set carbon emission goals for different industries and different regions from a macro level, to achieve coordinated advancement of various industries, and to ensure that the country-level carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals can be achieved based on the healthy and sustainable development of the automobile, transportation and energy industries.

7.1.2 Policy Support for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry Based on the low-carbon research of the automotive industry and the tracking of domestic and foreign policies, this study initially proposes a low-carbon development policy toolkit covering the entire life cycle of automobiles, including resource guarantee means in procurement, green technology library in production, environmental information and carbon information disclosure in information disclosure and fiscal and tax incentives for industrial development.

7.1.2.1

Green Resource Supply and Guarantee for Exporting Enterprises

For product exporting enterprises, the use of green resources in the production process has become an increasingly important requirement in the process of participating in international trade. For example, the EU battery regulations put forward requirements for the recovery and utilization rate of important metals such as nickel, cobalt, and

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lithium in the batteries. Requirements for carbon footprints are driving enterprises to seek cleaner electricity supplies. In order to better ensure the competitive advantage of product exporting enterprises and accelerate China’s transformation into a powerful country in automobile manufacturing, safeguard measures should be formed on the supply side of green resources. In terms of important metals and recycled materials, the introduction and innovation of industrial policies and the management of the entire industrial chain are taken as means to provide basic support for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation and the coordination of strategic mineral resources guarantee. According to the forecast of the proportion of recycled nickel, cobalt and lithium used in the production of new batteries, as shown in Fig. 7.4, the utilization rate of recycled materials in the automotive industry will experience a rapid rise in the future, and this indicator will become an important means to measure the low carbon performance of a product. The realization of the global green and low-carbon transformation and carbon neutrality has strengthened the constraints of ecological protection on resource supply. Moreover, the industrial policy competition plays an increasingly important role in international competition, strategic metal resource guarantee will gradually penetrate into the geopolitical field of industrial economy and superpower games, and certainty factors in the supply chain will increase. The guarantee of green resources should break through the scope of market supply targeting the existing quantity, scale or cost. It is necessary to establish a sound industrial policy to ensure the stability, safety and competitive advantages of the industrial chain, so that the market can be effectively supported by the state, and long-term strategic cooperations can be reached between high added value product exporting enterprises and high-quality recycled material suppliers to ensure the priority supply of recycled materials [1]. In terms of green power supply and trading, a “green channel” can be provided for green power trading for exporting enterprises, to give priority to guaranteeing green power trading for such enterprises. The supply of green power can greatly reduce the carbon emissions of automobile products, especially battery electric vehicle products in the whole life cycle, and greatly increase the low-carbon competitiveness of China’s products to be exported. China’s renewable energy consumption guarantee mechanism was launched in 2019 through the Notice on the Establishment and Improvement of a Safeguard Mechanism for Renewable Electricity Consumption, which implemented the legal requirements for the priority utilization of renewable energy and established mandatory market share standards in accordance with the law. In the first batch of domestic green power transactions in September 2021, the green power purchased by BMW Brilliance, Beijing Benz and some parts enterprises accounted for nearly half of the total transaction volume. Further offsetting the carbon emissions generated in the production process through outsourcing green power has become an important means for automobile upstream and downstream enterprises to realize carbon reduction and decarburization. The purchase of green power in the production process of an enterprise will help it implement the “dual carbon” goal in subsequent production and operation, and obtain higher economic, social and environmental benefits and values. In addition, in terms of green power transmission,

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Fig. 7.4 Forecast of the proportion of recycled nickel, cobalt and lithium used in the production of new batteries

wind power, photovoltaic power, hydropower and other energy sources in Northwest and North China have huge potential, and have sufficient space for alternatives to traditional electricity. In 2020, China’s UHV transportation lines will achieve 180.37 billion kWh of electricity for 100% hydropower transportation, and 63.73 billion kWh of electricity for wind power, and photovoltaic power transportation, both lower than 287.7 billion kWh of electricity for thermal power transportation. The infrastructure for related power transmission is relatively complete and green power transmission space is abundant.

7.1.2.2

Information Collection and Statistics Mechanism for Industrial Supply Chain

The realization of carbon neutrality in the automotive industry is not solely based on the efforts of the vehicle enterprises. The upstream suppliers of the industrial chain play an important role in realizing carbon reduction and decarbonization. The strength of the supply chain and suppliers’ carbon reduction capabilities directly affects the effect of coordinated decarbonization of the entire industrial chain of automobile enterprises. The carbon reductions of enterprises in the whole life cycle and the due diligence of suppliers have become one of the means to respond to compliance requirements and enhance their own low-carbon competitiveness. On the basis of environmental information disclosure by all parties, the establishment of a complete information collection and statistics mechanism and a clear and complete environmental information database and carbon emission database in downstream enterprises is necessary, and the establishment of unified and effective supply chain

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management strategies and carbon reduction strategies has become the new focus of policy support. At the present stage, less attention to secondary and tertiary indirect suppliers is paid by a considerable number of manufacturing enterprises. Even if they carry out risk assessment, they may focus more on direct business topics such as quality and price, while less attention is paid to the risk on environmental compliance and other aspects, and the data statistics of carbon emission and emission reduction management are only intended for the OEMs and first-tier suppliers, resulting in that the potential environmental risks and carbon emissions risks of suppliers cannot be fully evaluated and resolved. In addition, in the process of supplier risk assessment, due to the large number of suppliers and scattered risk information, the assessment data collection faces a long cycle and more difficulty, which causes difficulties in the low-carbon, green and sustainable management of the supply chain. The main emissions of the automotive industry originate from upstream multi-tier suppliers, but generally, the carbon emission data of the suppliers are not directly under the jurisdiction of the OEMs. Although the carbon emissions of materials and parts are not directly controlled by the OEMs, the carbon emissions from materials and parts are the relative responsibility of the OEMs. Therefore, for automobile enterprises that conduct carbon emission accounting, data statistics and emission reduction measures cannot be limited to the enterprise level and first-tier supplier level, and should thread throughout the entire supply chain. Based on this background, the China Industrial Carbon Emissions Information System (CICES) has been built according to the idea of establishing a collection and statistics mechanism for carbon emission information in the industrial supply chain. As shown in Fig. 7.5, various enterprises in the automotive industry have jointly developed the unified carbon emission data reporting form and reporting specifications to standardize the content and methods of carbon emission data collection and reporting, avoiding the interaction difficulties caused by different forms of data sources, and the accounting and auditing difficulties caused by data sources of different calibers. The entire industrial chain has a unified pace, which has greatly promoted the circulation and accumulation of carbon emission data, and is of great significance to carbon emission management from the perspective of the whole life cycle and improving the low-carbon competitiveness of products.

7.1.2.3

Development of a Green and Low-Carbon Technology Library for the Automotive Industry

Low-carbon technologies refer to technologies that are based on the clean and efficient use of energy and resources, and are characterized by the reduction or elimination of CO2 emissions. In a broad sense, they also refer to technologies characterized by the reduction or elimination of other greenhouse gas emissions. According to the emission reduction mechanism, low-carbon technologies can be divided into zerocarbon technology, carbon reduction technology and carbon storage technology; according to technical characteristics, low-carbon technologies can be divided into

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Fig. 7.5 CICES architecture

non-fossil energy technology, fuel and raw material substitution technology, process and other non-CO2 emission reduction technologies, carbon capture, utilization and storage technology and carbon sink technology. In recent years, thanks to the continuous improvement of top-level design and the multi-dimensional and full-coverage industrial low-carbon development system formed in different fields, China’s industrial energy conservation and carbon reduction have achieved remarkable results, and the coverage of low-carbon technology upgrades has increased significantly, playing an important role in tackling climate change and sustainable development. As of March 2022, China has issued several batches of Directory of National Key Promoted Low-carbon Technologies and Directory of Promoted Green Technologies, covering key industries and fields such as power, steel, petrochemical, chemical, new energy, and transportation, so as to guide the transformation of green development, as shown in Table 7.7. The current technology directory has covered most of the industrial chain in the automotive industry. However, in the context of rapid updates in the automotive industry and continuous technological upgrading, some emerging technologies have not yet been included, that is, information updates are untimely and inaccurate, making it difficult to guide the rapid development and continuous transformation of the industry; meanwhile, since detailed low-carbon technologies that meet the characteristics of the industry are in shortage, a proprietary low-carbon technology library that conforms to industry characteristics and development trends is urgently needed for the automotive industry [2] and [3, 4]. The establishment of a low-carbon technology library in the automotive industry has a significant role in promoting the development of the industry: 1. Strengthen the government’s leading role in the industry. The Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality points out that it is necessary to “strengthen the breakthrough and promotion and application of major green and low-carbon technologies, promote energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and establish innovation service platform for green and low-carbon technologies”. The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan proposes

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to “build a market-oriented green technology innovation system and implement green technology innovation breakthrough actions”. Technology path guidance is one of the important means for establishing an industrial system with lowcarbon characteristics in the transportation industry, and promoting low-carbon new processes, new technologies and new equipment featuring great emission reduction potential, advancement and application, maturity and reliability, and good social comprehensive benefits. It is also a favorable basis for formulating preferential fiscal and tax policies. 2. Standardize the market-oriented promotion and application of green and low-carbon technologies. Although China’s low-carbon development has been Table 7.7 Contents related to the automotive industry in the low-carbon technology directories issued by relevant departments in China (part) Technical name

Scope of application

Transport vehicles/non-mobile Vehicle fuel purification and pollution source treatment efficiency enhancement technology based on improved combustion and lubrication performances

Overall benefits Based on the national gasoline consumption of 120 million tons and national diesel consumption of 150 million tons in 2019, the annually saved standard coal is about 11.85 million tons and the reduced CO2 emissions is about 31.52 million tons

New energy vehicle all-aluminum body manufacturing technology

New energy vehicles

The carbon emission is 112kgCO2 /vehicle; the energy consumption in the manufacturing process is 11.9kgce/vehicle; the energy consumption in the driving process is 9.7kWh/100 km

Production technology using gasoline and diesel detergent synergist

Transport vehicles

Based on the national gasoline consumption of 120 million tons and national diesel consumption of 150 million tons in 2019, the annually saved standard coal is about 10.27 million tons and the reduced CO2 emissions is about 27.3182 million tons

High-efficiency and energy-saving SiC power devices and key technologies for modules

New energy vehicles

The efficiency of the new energy vehicle motor controller system is 99%. Promote the development of renewable energy such as solar energy and wind energy, and reduce greenhouse gas and harmful gas emissions (continued)

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Table 7.7 (continued) Technical name

Scope of application

Overall benefits

High-value comprehensive recycling technology for decommissioned batteries

Resource recycling

Improve the economic value of the recycling of decommissioned batteries, and extract raw materials such as iron phosphate, lithium carbonate, graphite, etc., and increase the added value of products by 40%, which greatly alleviates the shortage of raw materials for batteries and realizes resource recycling

High-efficiency discharge feedback battery formation technology

Lithium-ion battery production

The electric energy discharged by the battery is fed back to the local DC bus to be provided to other charging equipment. When the electric energy discharged by the battery is greater than the electric energy required by the charging equipment, the inverter is used to invert the internal public grid of the enterprise, and the inverted electric energy is returned to the grid

Hybrid technology

Hybrid vehicle

Regenerative braking energy recovery technology; idle elimination technology; high-efficiency hybrid special engine technology; vehicle integration and vehicle control strategy optimization and matching technology, etc. It is expected to achieve an average annual emission reduction of 5.54 million tCO2 in the next five years

put on the fast track at this stage, the problems of unclear understanding of the concept of low-carbon technologies and the lack of standardized assessment methods for emission reduction potential still exist. Some traditional highemission and high-energy consumption technologies are also included in lowcarbon technology sequence. Relevant technology libraries with industry characteristics can provide normative guidance for the use of technologies by industry enterprises, and clearly delineate technology concepts, which can effectively guide the understanding of low-carbon technology concepts from all walks of life.

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3. Help international cooperation in addressing climate change and trade. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Kyoto Protocol and other documents make it clear that the transfer and provision of advanced technologies that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions to developing countries is an important responsibility and obligation of developed countries. The low-carbon technology library of the automotive industry covers the advanced and applicable low-carbon technologies with great potential for greenhouse gas emission reductions in China’s industries, which will provide an important basis for the cooperation between China and developed countries in the low-carbon field, and serve as the technology support for exchanges such as South-South cooperation. Besides, products using advanced low-carbon technology will have stronger international market competitiveness, which can help China’s automobile products to further participate in the external circulation of international trade. The automotive industry features a long industrial chain, a wide range, rapid growth in total carbon emissions, and high carbon intensity of a single vehicle, which requires low-carbon management from the raw material production to the product use and recycling. Achievement of high-quality development of green and low-carbon industry depends on the joint efforts of various enterprises. In summary, the low-carbon development policy recommendations for the automotive industry can be classified as: (1) formulate and implement carbon emission standards for the entire life cycle of automobiles, helping clarify the boundaries of carbon emissions of the automotive industry in the China’s carbon emission reduction plan, and the positioning, responsibilities and goals of carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry; (2) improve policies that are conducive to the management and control of automobile carbon emissions, and form a low-carbon policy toolkit for the automotive industry; (3) promote the formation of joint forces of “governmentindustry-university-research”, through technology incubation, speed up the selection and implementation of clean energy, green manufacturing and other technologies, and the recycle raw materials; (4) further increase support for the use of new energy vehicles, such as financial, fiscal and taxation management measures, and further encourage low-carbon product consumption.

7.1.2.4

Disclosure System of Carbon Footprint Information of Automobile Products

The automotive industry is a pillar industry of China’s national economy. It features a long industrial chain and a wide range. It is an important means for promoting the emission reduction of upstream and downstream industrial chains. Internationally, China has become a major exporter of automobiles, and a competitive carbon emission level will be an important support for China’s automotive industry to break the global carbon trade barriers and become a strong automobile exporter. The disclosure system of carbon emission information of automobile products has become an important policy tool for global carbon emission management. The establishment

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of a government-led disclosure system of vehicle carbon footprint information has become an international development trend. On the consumer side, with the continuous deepening of China’s low-carbon concept propaganda, the low-carbon level will become an important indicator for consumers to measure products. It is also necessary for China to integrate the existing vehicle carbon emission data, achieve “knowing fairly well” in the management of the industry, and explore the establishment of disclosure system of vehicle carbon footprint. At present, the basic work of carbon footprint disclosure has been basically completed: (1) the construction of the data system of carbon emissions of the whole industry has been accelerated. Through the three-step measures of unified accounting method, unified data specification, and unified reporting platform, the local carbon emission data system of the automotive industry has been rapidly established, so that the accounting methods and system boundaries of the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles in the industry are unified, and the problem of information asymmetry has been preliminarily solved. (2) A consensus has been formed on data reporting specifications. China’s automotive industry has jointly researched and formulated a unified carbon emission data reporting form and specification, and has unified requirements for the content and methods of carbon emission data collection and reporting, avoiding accounting and auditing difficulties caused by data sources of different calibers. The entire industrial chain has formed a unified pace, which has greatly promoted the circulation and accumulation of carbon emission data. (3) The data reporting platform has been put into operation. The CICES can effectively promote the co-construction and co-management of the basic carbon data platform, and promote the improvement of the carbon emission management capability of the entire industrial chain and the maturity and improvement of the construction of the data system, so as to truly realize that carbon emission data can be calculated, traced, circulated and trusted, effectively solve the problems of upstream data loss and collection difficulties faced by industrial enterprises in carbon emission accounting, and provide effective support for the formulation of product carbon footprint information management and disclosure system. It has become the consensus of the automotive industry to speed up the management of carbon emissions in the whole life cycle, to respond to the national carbon neutrality goal, and to break through the carbon barriers to international trade. China’s automobile carbon footprint information disclosure system will follow the idea of pilot first, voluntary disclosure, and gradual transition, as shown in Fig. 7.6, to build a management system guided by the State Council, jointly implemented and supervised by ministries and commissions, and supported by technical specifications. The following work will be done: 1. Carry out the pilot program of voluntary disclosure. At this stage, voluntary information reporting and third-party accounting support are taken as the implementation principles, and pilot work is carried out with light-duty passenger vehicles as the implementation object. First, an accounting notice is issued to collect data from enterprises, and after verification, the annual verification of

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Fig. 7.6 Implementation idea of the carbon footprint information disclosure system of automobile products

automobile carbon footprint information will be disclosed as a basis for validation of the information of enterprises and institutions. Finally, after there is no problem fed back from the enterprises, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will publish an annual disclosure on the carbon footprint of automobile products covering vehicle model, curb mass, fuel type, carbon footprint, accounting time, and accounting system boundaries on the official website of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment. On the post-event supervision side, an information sampling inspection mechanism will be established simultaneously, and consistency sampling inspection will be carried out on the carbon footprint information of automobile products that is regularly disclosed every year or will be verified based on reporting clues, and the results will be notified to the public. 2. Strengthen the supporting policy and technology system. By summarizing the pilot experience, further improve the automobile carbon footprint information disclosure system in terms of system requirements, enterprise management and technical documents, including improving the relevant policy management systems such as automobile product carbon footprint information disclosure requirements and automobile product carbon footprint information disclosure technical specifications to ensure that the requirements, formats and calibers are unified. The disclosure of carbon footprint information is included in the environmental information disclosure report of enterprises in the automotive industry, so as to urge enterprises to establish a carbon footprint information accounting and disclosure team in the governance process, and effectively regulate the credibility and professionalism of information sources. When the time comes, gradually realize transition from voluntary disclosure to mandatory disclosure. 3. Make multi-dimensional incentives for the development of low-carbon automobile enterprises. Disclosure of environmental information of the automotive industry and of carbon footprint information of automobile products is a favorable measure for further management of the supply chain. The disclosure of environmental information of the automotive industry can ensure the transparency and openness of the sustainable development information of enterprises in the supply chain, while the disclosure of carbon footprint information of automobile products can help support the traceability, query and auditability of product carbon emission data. Both of them can either promote the environmental information

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of China’s enterprises to accept public supervision, or help enterprises to fully respond to the review of supply chain information in the external circulation. 7.1.2.5

Industry Environmental Information Disclosure and Assessment System

Building an environmental information disclosure system has become an important task to promote the modernization of China’s ecological environment governance system and governance capacity, and an important implementation basis for the transformation of the governance mode from administrative management to public governance. In the context that ecological and environmental protection issues are increasingly serious, and the topic of carbon peak and carbon neutrality has received widespread attention, strengthening the primary responsibility of enterprises for ecological and environmental protection and standardizing environmental information disclosure activities are the powerful measures to control pollution emissions, efficiently utilize resources, and improve environmental quality [5]. Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality and Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Establishment of a Sound Economic System with Green, Low-carbon and Circular Development emphasize the concentration, completeness and verifiability of enterprise environmental information. In 2021, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment successively issued the Plan for the Reform of the Legal Disclosure System of Environmental Information, the Administrative Measures for the Legal Disclosure of Enterprise Environmental Information, and the Format Guidelines for the Legal Disclosure of Enterprise Environmental Information (hereinafter referred to as the “Format Guidelines”), which clearly stated that by 2025, the mandatory disclosure system of environmental information in China will be basically established. According to the requirements in the relevant documents, from 2022, key enterprise and institutions that meet the requirements of the management measures shall disclose their annual and interim reports on environmental information within a specified time limit. Key enterprises are required to disclose at least eight types of information, including enterprise environmental management information, pollutant generation, governance and emission information, and carbon emission information. Specific to the automotive industry, establishing an information disclosure system with more detailed content and richer indicators has become one of the important tasks to drive upstream and downstream enterprises in the industry to synchronously carry out emission reduction and promote the green, low-carbon and high-quality development of the industry. The environmental information that can be disclosed is shown in Table 7.8. Carbon emission is one of the topics that enterprises need to pay attention to. The difference between the automotive industry and other key industries is that automobile products also generate a large amount of CO2 during the use process. Since the emphasis of environmental information disclosure should also be

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laid on carbon emissions during production, use, and transportation, a complete CO2 information disclosure system should be established, which can drive the disclosure of different types of environmental information [6].

7.1.2.6

Formulation of Fiscal and Tax Policies for Carbon Emission of Automotive Industry

In the “1 + N” system, the top documents Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality and Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030 propose to establish and improve a tax policy system that is conducive to green and low-carbon development, so as to give better play to the role of taxation in promoting the green and low-carbon development of market entities. Improving fiscal and tax policies is an important means to support and motivate the automotive industry to carry out green R&D and innovation, and is also an important part of climate strategies of all countries. At present, China has preferential policies for energy-saving and new energy vehicles to a relatively greater extent. The fiscal and tax incentive policies have supported the development of the automotive industry to a certain extent, but most of them are reflected at the vehicle level. For low-carbon technology, green innovation and other links, there are few incentives, and the feasible incentives are not yet clear. For example, the policy of “additional tax deductions for enterprise research and development” in enterprise income tax has played a role in increasing enterprise cash flow and encouraging enterprise R&D innovation to a certain extent, but in actual implementation, the “green innovation” factors have been ignored, and the technologies such as green and low-carbon manufacturing are not taken into account. The proportion of pre-tax deduction of research and development expenses for automobile manufacturers and auto parts manufacturers whose automobile CO2 emissions are lower than a certain amount can be increased to provide supportive policies for the realization of low-carbon development of the automotive industry and China’s achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality [7]. In terms of fiscal and tax subsidies, the following aspects can be considered to improve the fiscal subsidies for the automotive industry: 1. Subsidy structure. At present, China’s fiscal subsidies support the industry through direct investment, and a relatively single subsidy structure is not conducive to giving full play to the capacity for industry growth. In this regard, the proportion of direct investment can be reduced, the subsidy methods that can play a guiding role should be strengthened, to promote the diversification of subsidy methods. 2. Subsidy link. Fiscal subsidy can be extended from the production and sales links to all links in the industrial chain, so as to form the linkage development of the industrial chain and reduce CO2 emissions in the entire industrial chain of automobile raw material acquisition, parts and vehicle manufacturing, and fuel production. In the R&D link, green innovation of core low-carbon technologies for automobiles can be encouraged, to improve the overall technical level of vehicle enterprises and parts enterprises. In the market

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Table 7.8 Discloseable items of environmental information in the automotive industry S/N

Disclosure direction

Content overview

1

Table of contents and definitions

Report title page content, report definitions

2

Summary of key environmental information

Explanation of material disclosures

3

Basic information of enterprises

Basic information of enterprise operations, including business information, product information, production technology, etc

4

Enterprise environmental management information

Enterprises comply with ecological environment legal management information, enterprise entire industrial chain environmental management strategy, green manufacturing system construction information, management system construction and third-party certification information

5

Enterprise energy resource consumption Enterprise energy/water management information initiatives, energy/water resource consumption, energy/water resource intensity

6

Pollutant generation, treatment and discharge information

The generation, treatment and discharge of air pollutants and water pollutants in the enterprise, the management of solid waste and harmful substances, the treatment of noise and dust, etc

7

Carbon emission information

Plant boundary carbon emissions and trading

8

Material environmental information

Management and content of VOCs and prohibited substances used in materials, use of recycled and degradable materials, product lightweight, and use of green materials

9

Product environmental information

Vehicle use energy consumption, product exhaust emissions, vehicle VOC content, vehicle driving noise, and product life cycle carbon emissions

10

Distribution system environmental information

Green packaging, green transportation, green warehousing, and dealer management information

11

Product recycling environmental information

Product recycling management, reusability and recycling rate, battery traceability, dismantling information disclosure, remanufactured parts use information

12

Mandatory clean production audit information

Enterprise information on mandatory clean production audit

13

Ecological environment emergency information

Information on the occurrence of ecological environment accidents in the enterprise and facing heavily polluted weather (continued)

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Table 7.8 (continued) S/N

Disclosure direction

Content overview

14

Ecological environment law violation information

Enterprise ecological environment law and rule violation information

15

Interim report of the current year

Information required for temporary report in the Administrative Measures for the Legal Disclosure of Enterprise Environmental Information

16

Ecological environment protection information related to investment and financing

Ecological environment protection information when the enterprise conducts investment and financing activities that comply with the management measures

promotion link, subsidies can be given to the participants of the business model, and support can be given to various innovative operation modes of automotive industry. In terms of tax, the automotive industry can be considered as a pilot industry for implementation of the carbon tax policy. The carbon pricing mechanism mainly includes carbon emission trading mechanism and carbon tax mechanism. The carbon emission trading mechanism establishes a policy-based market in the form of “total emissions control and quota allocation”, where emission control units can freely buy and sell quotas, and the carbon price is determined by the market. The carbon tax policy is intended to levy taxes on emission control units based on the carbon content or carbon emissions of consuming fossil fuels. Through taxation, the environmental costs caused by CO2 emissions are internalized into production and operation costs, and the tax rate is set by the government. The European Union, California, South Korea, New Zealand and other countries or regions have established carbon trading markets, mainly covering energy-intensive industries such as power industry, petrochemical industry, and aluminum industry. Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries have introduced carbon taxes, which is mainly reflected in the transportation sector, such as transportation fuels or motor vehicle carbon emissions, and achieved good emission reduction results. In addition, some developed countries are exploring the establishment of a carbon tariff system based on the domestic carbon pricing mechanism, and it is expected that the national trade pattern will undergo major changes. The European Union has published a draft Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, proposing that all goods under the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) should be subject to carbon tariffs, which currently include cement, electricity, fertilizers, steel and aluminium. In the revised draft of the European Parliament, it is recommended to add hydrogen and plastics and their products, and to include indirect emissions into the accounting scope. It is expected that the scope of products may be further expanded in the future, including downstream products, which will have a greater impact on international trade. It can be seen from the successful international experience that the carbon pricing mechanism will have a positive effect on carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry. With the increase in the production, sales and ownership of automobiles,

342

7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

the carbon emissions of the automotive industry have grown rapidly, and it is of great significance to implement a carbon pricing mechanism in the automotive industry. However, the carbon emission sources of the automotive industry are relatively scattered, and joining the carbon trading market features great difficulty, many processes and high operating costs. The carbon tax collection process is simple and easy to operate, and it is more suitable for industries such as the automotive industry where emission sources are scattered and low in concentration. Therefore, the research of tax policy, promotion of internalization of emission reduction costs, and promotion of the positive transfer of resources in the automotive industry which is taken as a pilot industry can promote carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry, improve the low-carbon competitiveness of automobile products, expand the automobile export market, and promote the automotive industry to develop in a high-quality manner, and in the meanwhile, it can form a radiation driving effect, and provide reference for the whole industry to carry out carbon tax policy research. Researching and formulating carbon tax policies for the automotive industry is not only a key choice to deal with international carbon trade barriers, but also an important part of promoting the realization of China’s “ carbon peak and carbon neutrality” goals [8].

7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry 7.2.1 Speeding Up the Process of Decarbonization of the Power Structure The cleanliness of electricity has a crucial impact on the low-carbon development of the automotive industry. In recent years, China has been vigorously developing hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic power and other renewable power to promote the low-carbon and clean transformation of the power structure. By the end of 2020[1], hydropower generation, wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation accounted for 18%, 6% and 3%, respectively. However, China’s power structure is still dominated by thermal power, and the supply of green power is insufficient. In particular, wind power and photovoltaic power still have great development potential, resulting in a high carbon emission factor of China’s power. The proportion of thermal power in Europe and the United States is relatively low, accounting for less than 30%, the proportion of renewable power generation is relatively high, and the carbon emission factor of power generation is lower than that of China. At the present stage, indirect carbon emissions from power generation are gradually being included in the accounting scope for accounting for the carbon emissions of enterprises and products. In the revised draft of the European Parliament’s EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, it is recommended that indirect emissions, including that from the power production, be included in the accounting scope for accounting for carbon emissions from regulated products. Besides, in the draft of the Regulation

7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry

343

Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries issued by the EU, a series of requirements are put forward for the carbon footprint of batteries. The batteries that do not meet the requirements will not be allowed to enter the EU market or be used in the EU market. In the future, the cleanliness of the power structure will likely become an important factor affecting the development of new energy vehicles in China. Therefore, it is particularly important to further accelerate the decarbonization process of the power structure. Due to the superior endowment of coal resources in China, thermal power is dominant in China’s power structure. In the past, the mainstream technology paths and infrastructure were mainly matched with the thermal power system. The coal power generation technology is stable and the power generation cost is low. For a period of time in the future, in order to ensure stable power supply, orderly production and life, and to ease the pressure brought about by the transformation of clean electricity, coal and other fossil energy sources will still be the main energy supply for China’s power generation. Therefore, it is necessary to take various measures to improve the cleanliness of coal power while the proportion of renewable power is gradually increased. In accordance with the principle of “controlling the increment and optimizing the stock”, the role of coal-fired power safety underpinning should be brought into play in order to develop advanced production capacity as a focus, and moderately increase the scale of coal-fired power generation. it is also necessary to build a clean electricity supply system, increase the green power plants and corresponding supporting facilities, and accelerate the construction of smart grids. It is necessary, according to the characteristics of energy resource endowment in each region, to comprehensively promote the large-scale development of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, and carry out demonstration applications of distributed photovoltaic power generation. For example, focus on major rivers in the southwest region of China, actively promote the construction of large hydropower bases, and vigorously develop wind and solar energy in the northwest region of China. Build inter-regional and inter-provincial power transmission channels, optimize the inter-regional allocation of energy resources, improve the regional flow of renewable power, and coordinate the supply and demand of clean electricity between different regions.

7.2.2 Steady and Sound Promotion of the Development of Vehicle Electrification At the current stage, electrification has become one of the important ways to promote the low-carbon and high-quality development of the automotive industry. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, BEVs have the advantage of carbon emission reduction in the whole life cycle. Compared with gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles, battery electric passenger vehicles can reduce emissions by 43.3% and 58.2%, respectively; plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles have the next highest carbon emission reduction

344

7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

potential, with emission reductions of 19.2% and 40.5%, respectively. In order to reduce the carbon emissions of the automotive industry, each country has introduced electrification targets. On July 14, 2021, the European Union published a revised draft of the CO2 emissions for passenger vehicles and light-duty commercial vehicles. The draft proposes that by 2035, the carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and lightduty commercial vehicles will drop by 100% compared with 2021, which means that by 2035, fuel vehicles will withdraw from the EU market and BEVs will usher in a comprehensive development era. Since the Biden administration came to power, the United States has greatly increased its support for new energy vehicles and related industries. In August 2021, the United States signed an executive order requiring the United States to achieve a 50% electrification rate by 2030. On November 19, the House of Representatives passed a 1.7 trillion stimulus bill to substantially increase subsidies for new energy vehicles and abolish subsidy restrictions. China has issued a dual-credit policy to encourage the development of new energy vehicles. This policy requires that the credit proportion of new energy vehicles in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 be 10%, 12%, 14%, 16% and 18%, respectively, and guides traditional vehicle enterprises to develop new energy vehicle layout and release the development potential of new energy vehicles. Under the guidance of this policy, vehicle enterprises have also taken electrification as the key development direction in the future. New vehicle manufacturers and joint venture brands have increased the development of BEVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles, improved the product matrix, and promoted the gradual diversification of product spectrums. However, with the vigorous development of electrification, a series of problems such as intensified competition among electric vehicle enterprises, shortage of key raw material resources such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium required for batteries, and rising raw material costs have become more prominent. In addition, the EU’s Regulation Concerning Batteries and Waste Batteries has put forward requirements on the carbon footprint, the utilization and content of recycled materials, material recycling efficiency, due diligence of batteries, etc., which poses challenges for the development of new energy vehicles in China, and requires the government and automobile enterprises to take timely and effective measures to deal with changes in domestic and foreign situations The government should do a good job in basic guarantees, formulate scientific and reasonable standards, policies, development plans, and fiscal measures to guide the low-carbon and high-quality development of China’s new energy vehicles and broaden the competitive advantage of the product in the market. In addition, the government should also improve the infrastructure such as charging piles, promote the construction and standardized management of public charging piles, improve the convenience of charging new energy vehicles, solve fundamental problems such as difficulty in charging of consumers, and extend the application scenarios of new energy vehicles. Since the new energy vehicles get the rapid development at the current stage, and relevant domestic and foreign policies change frequently, the enterprises should continue to pay attention to the trends of carbon emission policies in the domestic and foreign automotive industries, adjust their business layout in a timely manner, and improve their ability to respond to relevant domestic and foreign policies. The enterprises should also increase investment in

7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry

345

R&D of new energy vehicles, strive to achieve key technological breakthroughs, and improve the quality of new energy vehicles. Besides, since the upstream supply chain of new energy vehicles has received increasing attention, especially the sustainable supply capacity of the supply chain, the enterprises should do a good job in early warning in a timely manner to prevent or reduce the risks caused by shortage or high costs of key raw materials.

7.2.3 Speeding Up the Construction of Resource Recycling System The development of circular economy is a major strategy for China’s economic and social development. It is of great significance to safeguarding China’s resource security, promoting the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and promoting the construction of ecological civilization to speed up the recycling of raw materials, vigorously develop the circular economy, promote the economical and intensive utilization of resources, and build a resource recycling-based industrial system and a waste material recycling system. At present, the supply of high-quality recycled materials in China is limited, and it is difficult to meet the requirements of low-carbon development of enterprises. Firstly, the situation of resource recovery in China is not optimistic. Based on the recycling of the top ten Chinese varieties of renewable resources in 2019, the recycling of waste tyres and waste glass, which are closely related to the automotive industry, have a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% and 5.4%, respectively compared with 2018 [2]. Secondly, the recycling level and production scale of recycled material suppliers are relatively low, and it is difficult to meet the automotive industry’s demand for high-quality recycled materials. Taking some recycled materials as an example, the market share of domestic recycled steel, aluminum and copper in recent years is about 25, 40 and 30% of the EU’s market share (calculated by CATARC-ADC). Promoting the scale of the recycling industry and improving the level of recycling technology can ensure the supply of recycled materials in the automotive industry. Firstly, establish the quality and carbon emission reduction assessment standards for recycled materials to ensure the standard basis and benign policy environment for the automotive recycling industry. Promote the large-scale, standardized and clean utilization of renewable resources, promote the agglomeration and development of renewable resources industries, improve the standardization level of the industry, promote the concentration of resources to advantageous enterprises, and solve the problems of insufficient production capacity and small scale of recycled materials. Secondly, establish a sound automobile recycling system, including the formulation of mandatory recycling policies, the establishment of recycling outlets, the issuance of professional recycling qualifications, etc., continue to carry out the pilot extension of producer responsibility, strengthen the supervision of automobile recycling, and improve the transparency of the whole process of scrapping, dismantling, processing,

346

7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

recycling materials, and launching on the market. Finally, encourage recycling enterprises to devote greater effort to technological innovation in resource extraction, promote the promotion and application of new technologies, new processes, and new equipment, support standardized recycling enterprises to improve the quality of their process equipment and transformation, promote intelligent and refined dismantling, guarantee the quality and level of recycled materials, and improve the recycling rate of key raw materials such as nickel, cobalt, lithium, and aluminum.

7.2.4 Promotion of the Use of Hydrogen Fuel and Other Low-Carbon Alternative Fuels Under the goals of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”, the transformation and substitution of the energy structure is crucial. Hydrogen energy is regarded as a bridge of transition and conversion between fossil energy and renewable energy. On the one hand, the application of hydrogen fuel cells in the transportation industry is expected to achieve zero carbon emission during vehicle operation; on the other hand, due to the uneven temporal density of renewable energy, the use of surplus renewable energy to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water can effectively solve storage and redistribution issues of renewable energy to improve energy utilization. While for other low-carbon alternative fuels, such as hydrocarbon synthetic fuels, CO2 is captured by direct air in the environment, and hydrogen is produced by electrolysis of water through renewable energy. Hydrogen energy is compatible with existing infrastructure and fleets, and is also a technical solution that can effectively reduce carbon emissions in the transportation sector. In April 2020, the Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China (Exposure Draft) issued by the National Energy Administration mentioned priority should be given to the development of renewable energy, the development and application of new fuels and industrial raw materials to replace oil and gas should be supported, and hydrogen energy should be included into the energy category. In the future, a variety of alternative energy technology paths will be paralleled in the transportation sector, and the introduction of relevant incentive policies will help alternative fuels get out of the “valley of death” of scientific research achievements. Firstly, build diversified application scenarios of alternative fuels. Through the promotion of subsidy policies, including fuel vehicle promotion subsidies, demonstration application subsidies and other policy supports, create more alternative fuel technology application scenarios, increase the demand for alternative fuels, and speed up the formation of the industry. Secondly, build a clean supply system for alternative fuels. Promote the consumption of clean energy such as hydrogen energy, encourage the promotion of technology paths such as electric hydrogen production in areas rich in clean energy, expand local consumption space, improve local consumption capacity, and increase the supply of alternative fuels. Thirdly, build a basic guarantee system for alternative fuels. Strengthen the planning and construction of infrastructure for alternative fuels such as hydrogen

7.2 Strategic Points for Low-Carbon Development of the Automotive Industry

347

refueling stations, improve storage and transportation efficiency, optimize distribution and delivery systems, and improve the flexibility of storage and transportation of alternative fuels. Improve the management system of alternative fuels such as hydrogen energy, clarify the centralized management department, establish relevant standard systems and institutional norms concerning safe production and use.

7.2.5 Advocating New Modes of Low-Carbon Mobility for Residents Low-carbon mobility modes such as public transportation, bicycles, and shared bicycles have obvious energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits. Advocating low-carbon mobility plays an important role in alleviating traffic congestion and promoting carbon emission reduction in the automotive industry. Firstly, establish a good basic guarantee mechanism for low-carbon mobility. Fully tap the existing road resources, provide more space for low-carbon mobility based on the road space redistribution mechanism, protect the road rights of non-power-driven vehicles such as bicycles and electric bicycles, and encourage residents to adopt low-carbon mobility modes within a short distance. Make full use of the big data of residents’ mobility, combine a variety of vehicle models and flexible scheduling strategies, strengthen the resource integration and data sharing among different public transport modes, respond on demand, dynamically adjust routes and stations, facilitate residents’ use of public transport mobility modes, and improve the matching degree of transportation capacity supply and mobility demand. Secondly, encourage residents to adopt low-carbon mobility modes in various ways. For example, bestow value on energy saving and carbon reduction behaviors of citizens and small and micro enterprises by establishing a personal mobility “carbon account” and using a unified quantitative method and standard to evaluate the emission reductions of residents’ lowcarbon mobility modes such as walking, cycling, and taking public transportation. In 2020, the Chengdu Municipal Government issued the Implementation Opinions on Building a “Chengdu Carbon Inclusion” Mechanism, and it proposed the dual-path construction idea of “public carbon emission reduction credits and project carbon emission reduction development and operation” for the first time. At present, the “Chengdu Carbon Inclusion” green public welfare platform has been launched. Different scenarios such as green mobility, water saving and electricity saving have been developed, and low-carbon assessment standards for catering, supermarkets, etc. have been formulated to fully stimulate the positivity of the public and small and micro enterprises to save energy and reduce carbon emissions. Recently, the “Zhejiang Carbon Inclusion” platform developed and built by the Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission has been officially launched in the “General Office of the People’s Government of Zhejiang Province”. After residents select the green and low-carbon scenario, low-carbon behaviors such as low-carbon mobility

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7 Strategic Points and Policy Guarantees for Low-Carbon Development …

and online handling in daily life will be recorded, and carbon credits will be accumulated, which effectively promotes residents’ sense of participation in carbon emission reduction and sets up low-carbon mobility concept to guide residents to choose more low-carbon mobility modes.

7.2.6 Speeding Up the Research and Development of Negative Carbon Technologies Negative carbon technology can achieve net absorption of carbon emissions, which is of great significance for the realization of carbon neutrality goal. The so-called negative carbon technology refers to the practice or technology of removing CO2 from the atmosphere, mainly including carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), carbon sink and other negative carbon emission technologies. CCUS refers to a combination of technologies related to the capture, utilization and storage of CO2 from industrial processes, energy use or the atmosphere. The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) pointed out that the emission reductions by using CCUS in 2030 is expected to be 100 million to 400 million tons, and the emission reductions by using CCUS in 2050 is 3 billion to 6.8 billion tons. CCUS becomes an feasible technology option for low-carbon transformation of the industry for which it is difficult to realize decarbonization and can provide CO2 raw material for some industrial production processes. Developed countries or regions such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan are promoting the development of CCUS through various measures. The United States has given fiscal support to the CCUS through the 45Q tax credit and the California government’s low-carbon fuel standard, which has promoted the vigorous development of the CCUS. In 2020, 12 new CCUS commercial projects were added, and the CCUS projects in operation account for about half of the total number of global operating projects. According to the China Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) Annual Report (2021), there are about 40 CCUS demonstration projects in operation or under construction in China, with a capture capacity of 3 million tons per year. However, at present, China’s CCUS projects are mainly demonstration projects. The project scale is small, the direct economic cost is high, and there are certain environmental risks. Large-scale commercial application scenarios have not yet been formed, and the potential advantages of CCUS in China cannot be fully explored. Carbon sink plays an important role in carbon emission reduction by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Compared with other negative carbon emission technologies, carbon sink has lower emission reduction costs and greater development potential. Recently, Zhejiang Province issued the Opinions on the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to Do a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality, which clearly proposed to consolidate and improve forestry carbon sink, promote the development and utilization of marine carbon sinks, and carry out carbon sink pilot projects.

References

349

At present, China’s CCUS and carbon sink development mechanism and related theoretical methods need to be improved, resulting in CCUS and carbon sink technologies cannot effectively play a role in emission reductions. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the basic theoretical research on monitoring, reporting and verification methodologies and standards, construction, operation, supervision, and termination standard systems for CCUS and carbon sink emission reduction, so that the project’s emission reduction effect can be quantitatively verified and compared, laying a solid foundation for the improvement of carbon emission reduction capacity, accurate monitoring and trading. Secondly, ensure the infrastructure construction of negative carbon emission technologies such as CCUS and carbon sink, increase the investment and construction scale of infrastructure for CO2 transportation and storage, and standardize infrastructure management. By benchmarking foreign negative carbon emission technology incentive policies, explore and formulate tax and subsidy incentive policies for negative carbon emission technologies that are in line with China’s actual situation, and guarantee financial support for negative carbon emission technologies. Finally, the emission reductions of certified CCUS and carbon sink projects can be traded on demand, such as participating in the carbon trading market through nationally certified voluntary emission reductions, so as to maximize the potential of negative carbon technology research and development.

7.3 Summary and Outlook This research focuses on the accounting and analysis of the life cycle carbon emissions of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles from three dimensions of single vehicle, enterprises and fleets. It makes deep study of the current situation of China’s automobile carbon emissions and the multi-scenario emission reduction potential under different emission reduction paths and different emission reduction scenarios, in order to provide reference for the carbon neutrality development of China’s automotive industry. In the next step, we will continue to devote ourselves to the research on china automobile low carbon action plan, and combine the development trend of the industry to deepen the research on carbon neutrality in the automotive industry.

References 1. China Electricity Council. China Power Industry Annual Development Report [R] (2021) 2. Department of Circulation Industry Development of the Ministry of Commerce, China National Resources Recycling Association. Industry Development Report of Recycled Resources of China [R] (2020) 3. Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China, National Key Promotion of low carbon technology List [Z] (2014) 4. National Development and Reform Commission, Green Technology Promotion Catalogue [Z] (2020)

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5. Yin Hong, Practice and Suggestion of environmental information disclosure in the context of carbon neutrality, Finance Economy [J] (2022) 6. Li Junhui, Li jiaang, Chen Xiao, Research on Status Quo Information Disclosure Level of Green Development of Automobile Enterprise, Auto time [J] (2021) 7. Weng Zhixiong, Ma Zhongyu, Cai Songfeng. he Economic and Environmental Impact of China’s carbon Tax Policy - Based on dynamic CGE model analysis, China Price [J] (2018) 8. Zhao yang, et al. Carbon emission policy and economic growth in China based on DSGE perspective, Soft Science [J] (2018)

Appendix

See Tables 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 Table 1 Material replacement and escape frequency (time(s)) No. Material name

Applicable M1 vehicles other than Battery electric passenger vehicle battery electric passenger vehicles

1

Tyre

1

1

2

Lead-acid battery 2

2

3

Lubricant

29

8

4

Brake fluid

2

2

5

Coolant

2

2

6

Refrigerant

Escape once, replace once

Escape once, replace once

7

Washer fluid

14

14

© China Machine Press 2023 Automotive Data of China Co., Ltd. et al., China Automotive Low Carbon Action Plan (2022), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-7502-8

351

352

Appendix

Table 2 Vehicle cycle-related carbon emission factors No.

Name

Default values of carbon emission factors

Unit

1

Steel

2.38

kgCO2 e/kg

2

Cast iron

1.82

kgCO2 e/kg

3

Aluminium and aluminium alloys 16.38

kgCO2 e/kg

4

Magnesium and magnesium alloys

kgCO2 e/kg

39.55

5

Copper and copper alloys

4.23

kgCO2 e/kg

6

Thermoplastics

3.96

kgCO2 e/kg

7

Thermosetting plastics

4.57

kgCO2 e/kg

8

Rubber

3.08

kgCO2 e/kg

9

Fabric

5.80

kgCO2 e/kg

10

Ceramic/glass

0.95

kgCO2 e/kg

11

Lead

2.74

kgCO2 e/kg

12

Sulphuric acid

0.10

kgCO2 e/kg

13

Glass fibre

8.91

kgCO2 e/kg

14

Lithium iron phosphate

2.93

kgCO2 e/kg

15

Lithium nickel cobalt manganate

17.40

kgCO2 e/kg

16

Lithium manganate

4.73

kgCO2 e/kg

17

Graphite

5.48

kgCO2 e/kg

18

Electrolyte: Lithium hexafluorophosphate

19.60

kgCO2 e/kg

19

Lubricant

1.20

kgCO2 e/kg

20

Brake fluid

1.20

kgCO2 e/kg

21

Coolant

1.85

kgCO2 e/kg

22

Refrigerant

15.10

kgCO2 e/kg

23

Washer fluid

0.97

kgCO2 e/kg

24

Lithium nickel cobalt manganate battery pack

87.78

kgCO2 e/kWh

25

Lithium iron phosphate battery pack

73.51

kgCO2 e/kWh

26

Lithium manganate battery pack

67.90

kgCO2 e/kWh

27

Vehicle production

550

kgCO2 e/vehicle

Appendix

353

Table 3 Carbon emission factors of energy/fuel production Energy/fuel name

Carbon emission factors of production

Unit

Accounting boundary

Average power supply of the national grid

0.635

kgCO2 e/kWh

Including energy extraction, power production and power delivery processes

Hydropower

0.035

kgCO2 e/kWh

Including energy extraction, power production and power delivery processes

Wind power

0.006

kgCO2 e/kWh

Including energy extraction, power production and power delivery processes

Nuclear power

0.014

kgCO2 e/kWh

Including energy extraction, power production and power delivery processes

Thermal power

0.971

kgCO2 e/kWh

Including energy extraction, power production and power delivery processes

PV power generation

0.048

kgCO2 e/kWh

Including power production process

Biomass power generation

0.230

kgCO2 e/kWh

Including power production process

Natural gas

0.07

kgCO2 e/m3

Including natural gas extraction, processing and transportation, with the fugitive emissions from the production process not considered

Gasoline

0.487

kgCO2 e/L

Including crude oil extraction, processing and transportation, with the fugitive emissions from the production process not considered

Diesel

0.535

kgCO2 e/L

Including crude oil extraction, processing and transportation, with the fugitive emissions from the production process not considered (continued)

354

Appendix

Table 3 (continued) Energy/fuel name

Carbon emission factors of production

Unit

Accounting boundary

Coal

0.08

kgCO2 e/kg

Including the raw coal mining and washing, with the spontaneous combustion of coal and the fugitive emission of gas not considered

Low pressure steam (0.3 MPa)

0.31

kgCO2 e/kg

Use coal as energy for production, including raw coal mining, washing and transportation, and steam production using boiler

Medium pressure steam (1 MPa)

0.38

kgCO2 e/kg

Use coal as energy for production, including raw coal mining, washing and transportation, and steam production using boiler

Appendix

355

Table 4 Specific parameter values of common fossil fuels Fuel variety

Solid fuel

Liquid fuel

Gas fuel

Net calorific value GJ/t, GJ/104 Nm3

Carbon content per calorific value (tCO2e/GJ)

Carbon oxidation rate (%)

Anthracite

26.700a

27.40 × 10−3b

94

Bituminous coal

19.570c

26.10 × 10−3b

93

Lignite

11.900a

28.00 × 10−3b

96

Cleaned coal

26.344d

25.41 ×

10−3b

90

Other washed coal

12.545d

25.41 × 10−3b

90

Briquette

17.460c

33.60 × 10−3c

90

Coke

28.435c

29.50 × 10−3b

93

Crude oil

41.816d

20.10 × 10−3b

98

Fuel

41.816d

21.10 × 10−3b

98

Gasoline

43.070d

18.90 × 10−3b

98

Diesel

42.652d

20.20 ×

10−3b

98

General kerosene

43.070d

19.60 × 10−3b

98

Liquified natural gas

51.44d

15.30 × 10−3b

98

Liquefied petroleum gas

50.179d

17.20 × 10−3b

98

Coal tar

33.453d

22.00 × 10−3a

98

Refinery dry gas

45.998d

18.20 ×

10−3b

99

Coke oven gas

179.81d

13.58 × 10−3b

99

Blast furnace gas

33.000c

70.80 × 10−3a

99

Converter gas

84.000c

49.60 × 10−3c

99

Other gas

52.270d

12.20 × 10−3b

99

Natural gas

389.310d

15.30 × 10−3b

99

Source of data a selected from 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories; Sourceof data b seletcted from Guidelines for Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Trial Version); Source of data c selected from Research on China’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2007); Source of date d selected from China Energy YearBook.

356

Appendix

Table 5 Carbon Emissions per Unit Mileage of Passenger Vehicles (2021) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

1

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Refine S4

291.7

2

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Refine M3

365.8

3

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Jiayue A5

303.9

4

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Refine M4

408.5

5

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Diesel

B

MPV

Refine M4

334.8

6

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Diesel

B

MPV

Refine M5

359.7

7

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

JAC iEV6E

165.5

8

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

JAC iEVA50 188.8

9

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Benz A

285.1

10

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Benz A AMG

337.7

11

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Benz GLA

294.6

12

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Benz C

302.6

13

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Benz GLB

309.5

14

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Benz GLC

342.2

15

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Benz E-Class

323.5

16

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Plug-in hybrid

Sedan

Benz E-Class

212.6

C

(continued)

Appendix

357

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

17

Beijing Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

SUV

Benz EQC

245.1

18

Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Beijing X3

290.3

19

Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Beijing U5

255.6

20

Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Beijing 40L

459.6

21

Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Beijing 80

458.3

22

Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Beijing X7

302.6

23

Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd

Diesel

SUV

Beijing 40L

415.5

24

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Verna

211.5

25

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Verna

238.9

26

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Hyundai ix25

233.2

27

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

LA FESTA

256.0

28

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Elantra

251.0

29

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Elantra

211.2

30

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Celesta, Elantra

262.0

31

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

New SantaFe

347.4

32

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Tucson

311.4

33

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Hyundai ix35

287.7

34

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Mistra

294.5

35

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Sonata

257.6

B

A

(continued)

358

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

36

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Custo

289.0

37

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Plug-in hybrid

A

Sedan

Elantra

167.6

38

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

SUV

Hyundai ENCINO

176.9

39

Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

LA FESTA

163.7

40

Beijing Battery Vehicle Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

BAIC EU series

192.7

41

Beijing Battery Vehicle Co., Ltd

Battery

B

Sedan

BAIC ARCFOX αS

231.8

42

Beijing Battery Vehicle Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

BAIC ARCFOX αT

233.8

43

BYD Auto

Gasoline A

Sedan

BYD F3

252.6

44

BYD Auto

Gasoline A

Sedan

BYD Qin

257.0

45

BYD Auto

Gasoline A

Sedan

BYD Qin Pro

268.9

46

BYD Auto

Gasoline A

SUV

BYD Song

338.1

47

BYD Auto

Gasoline A

SUV

BYD Song Pro

293.3

48

BYD Auto

Gasoline A

MPV

BYD Song MAX

315.7

49

BYD Auto

Gasoline B

SUV

BYD Song PLUS

292.1

50

BYD Auto

Gasoline B

SUV

BYD Tang

370.3

51

BYD Auto

Plug-in hybrid

A

Sedan

BYD Qin PLUS

170.9

52

BYD Auto

Plug-in hybrid

A

Sedan

BYD Qin Pro

187.5

53

BYD Auto

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

BYD Song Pro

211.3

54

BYD Auto

Plug-in hybrid

A

MPV

BYD Song MAX

214.5

55

BYD Auto

Plug-in hybrid

B

SUV

BYD Song PLUS

209.3 (continued)

Appendix

359

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

56

BYD Auto

Plug-in hybrid

B

SUV

BYD Tang

254.0

57

BYD Auto

Plug-in hybrid

C

Sedan

BYD Han

209.9

58

BYD Auto

Battery

A00

Sedan

BYD E1

117.9

59

BYD Auto

Battery

A0

Sedan

BYD E2

151.4

60

BYD Auto

Battery

A0

Sedan

BYD Dolphin

132.3

61

BYD Auto

Battery

A0

SUV

BYD Yuan

176.3

62

BYD Auto

Battery

A0

SUV

BYD Yuan Pro

156.6

63

BYD Auto

Battery

A0

MPV

BYD D1

158.6

64

BYD Auto

Battery

A0

MPV

BYD E6

245.0

65

BYD Auto

Battery

A

Sedan

BYD E3

151.5

66

BYD Auto

Battery

A

Sedan

BYD E5

182.5

67

BYD Auto

Battery

A

Sedan

BYD Qin

186.5

68

BYD Auto

Battery

A

Sedan

BYD Qin PLUS

165.8

69

BYD Auto

Battery

A

Sedan

BYD Qin Pro

171.8

70

BYD Auto

Battery

A

SUV

BYD Song Pro

186.5

71

BYD Auto

Battery

B

SUV

BYD Song PLUS

184.4

72

BYD Auto

Battery

B

SUV

BYD Tang

232.1

73

BYD Auto

Battery

C

Sedan

BYD Han

201.5

74

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Focus

243.9

75

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Focus Active

252.7

76

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Escort

243.7

77

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Corsair

333.0

78

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Escape

316.5 (continued)

360

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

79

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

EcoBoost

354.6

80

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Ford EVOS

311.9

81

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Nautilus

399.8

82

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Edge

414.2

83

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Taurus

328.6

84

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

SUV

Aviator

414.7

85

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

SUV

Explorer

378.2

86

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Escape

206.6

87

Changan Ford Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

Mustang Mach-E

217.9

88

Changan Mazda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

MAZDA3 AXELA

261.8

89

Changan Mazda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Mazda CX-30

243.4

90

Changan Mazda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Mazda CX-4

303.8

91

Changan Mazda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Mazda CX-5

316.2

92

Changan Mazda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

MAZDA6 ATENZA

295.3

93

Changan Mazda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Mazda CX-8

311.8

94

Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Haval F7

312.0

95

Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Haval H6

306.6

96

Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Haval H6S

275.6

97

Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Haval M6

323.1 (continued)

Appendix

361

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

98

Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Haval Red Rabbit

231.6

99

Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Haval Jolion 253.5

100 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Haval Dagou

307.3

101 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

TANK 300

413.1

102 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

WEY VV5

313.0

103 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

WEY VV6

316.7

104 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Haval H7

293.1

105 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Haval H9

383.4

106 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Haval Mythical Beast

270.6

107 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Mocha

294.1

108 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

WEY VV7

298.2

109 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

Haval H6S

214.0

110 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

Macchiato

197.7

111 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Macchiato

198.7

112 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Battery

A00

Sedan

Ora White Cat

106.9

113 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Battery

A00

Sedan

Ora Black Cat

105.4

114 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Battery

A

Sedan

Ora IQ

146.7

115 Great Wall Motor Company Limited

Battery

A

Sedan

Ora Good Cat

144.5 (continued)

362

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

116 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Yuexiang

249.0

117 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A0

SUV

COS 5

282.5

118 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A0

SUV

Changan CS15

266.7

119 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A0

SUV

Changan CS35

295.5

120 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A0

MPV

Honor S

283.2

121 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A0

MPV

Oshan A600 289.8

122 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A0

MPV

Changxing

303.8

123 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

Sedan

EADO

294.6

124 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

Sedan

EADO DT

270.2

125 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Oshan X5

281.9

126 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Oshan X70A

286.4

127 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Changan CS55

315.3

128 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Changan CS75

382.0

(continued)

Appendix

363

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

129 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Changan CS85

337.9

130 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Changan UNI-T

282.7

131 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline B

Sedan

Ruicheng CC

292.7

132 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Oshan COS1

325.3

133 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited ara>

Gasoline B

SUV

Oshan X7

306.3

134 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Changan CS95

424.6

135 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Changan UNI-K

368.4

136 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline -

Crossover Kuayuexing 303.4 passenger V5 vehicle

137 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline -

Crossover Ruixing passenger M60 vehicle

138 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline -

Crossover Changan V3 266.6 passenger vehicle

139 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline -

Crossover Changan passenger Star 5 vehicle

269.3

140 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Gasoline -

Crossover Changan passenger Star 9 vehicle

284.0

141 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Battery

Sedan

138.9

A00

Benben

320.1

(continued)

364

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

142 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Battery

A0

SUV

Changan CS15

165.4

143 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Battery

A0

MPV

Oshan A600 171.6

144 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Battery

A

Sedan

EADO

170.0

145 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Battery

A

SUV

Changan CS55

206.3

146 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited

Battery

A

MPV

COSMOS

190.7

147 Chongqing Leading Ideal Automobile Co., Ltd

Plug-in hybrid

C

SUV

Li ONE

243.5

148 Daqing Volvo Car Manufacturing Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Volvo XC40 319.0

149 Daqing Volvo Car Manufacturing Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Volvo S60L

150 Daqing Volvo Car Manufacturing Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Volvo XC60 369.0

151 Daqing Volvo Car Manufacturing Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Volvo S90

303.9

152 Daqing Volvo Car Manufacturing Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Polestar 2

218.1

153 Daqing Volvo Car Manufacturing Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Volvo XC40 227.9

154 Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited

Gasoline A

SUV

Sehol QX

274.1

155 Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited

Gasoline B

Sedan

Sehol A5

286.2

156 Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited

Gasoline B

SUV

Sehol X8

307.8

324.7

(continued)

Appendix

365

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

157 Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited

Battery

A00

Sedan

Sehol E10X 127.9

158 Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited

Battery

A0

SUV

Sehol E20X 177.3

159 Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited

Battery

A0

SUV

Sehol E40X 174.4

160 Volkswagen (Anhui) Automotive Company Limited

Battery

B

Sedan

Sehol E50A 172.6

161 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Honda LIFE 230.5

162 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Honda XR-V

278.2

163 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

CIVIC

263.4

164 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Envix

231.8

165 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Honda CR-V

318.1

166 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Honda INSPIRE

271.3

167 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Honda UR-V

359.9

168 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

Sedan

Envix

191.6

169 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

Honda CR-V

251.4

170 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

Sedan

Honda INSPIRE

208.5

171 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

MPV

Elysion

270.4

172 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

SUV

Honda M-NV

172.3

173 Dongfeng Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

SUV

CIIMO X-NV

174.5

174 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Fengxing SX6

276.0 (continued)

366

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

175 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Fengxing T5 322.5

176 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Fengxing T5 EVO

278.6

177 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Fengxing T5L

325.6

178 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Fengxing CM7

408.2

179 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Lingzhi

371.1

180 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Lingzhi PLUS

386.5

181 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Fengxing T1 105.4

182 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

JOYEAR S50

172.0

183 Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

B

MPV

Lingzhi

203.9

184 Dongfeng Motor Corporation Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Yixuan

261.6

185 Dongfeng Motor Corporation Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Aeolus AX7 348.3

186 Dongfeng Motor Corporation Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Yixuan GS

274.1

187 Dongfeng Motor Corporation Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline B

Sedan

Yixuan MAX

253.3

188 Dongfeng Motor Corporation Passenger Vehicle Company

NOVC hybrid

B

Sedan

Yixuan MAX

203.0

189 Dongfeng Motor Corporation Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A

Sedan

Aeolus E70

167.7

190 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A0

SUV

Kicks

231.3

(continued)

Appendix

367

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

191 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Bluebird

225.0

192 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Tiida

225.0

193 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Venucia D60

233.6

194 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Sylphy

249.4

195 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

X-Trail

279.7

196 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Venucia T60 260.9

197 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Venucia V

256.8

198 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Qashqai

269.4

199 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Star

281.5

200 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline B

Sedan

Teana

280.4

201 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline B

SUV

Murano

343.3

202 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

New X-Trail 277.3

203 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

New Sylphy 214

(continued)

368

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

204 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

NOVC hybrid

A

Sedan

Sylphy e-POWER

185.4

205 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A00

Sedan

Venucia E30 107.4

206 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A

Sedan

Venucia D60

207 Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A

SUV

Venucia T60 178.9

160.8

208 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline A0

MPV

Fengon

283.6

209 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline A

SUV

Fengon 500

283.1

210 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline A

SUV

Fengon S560

305.6

211 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline B

SUV

Fengon 580

311.9

212 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline B

SUV

Fengon ix5

354.8

213 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline B

SUV

Fengon ix7

387.7

214 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline -

Crossover DFSK C36 passenger vehicle

269.8

215 Dongfeng Sokon

Gasoline -

Crossover DFSK K07S 254.5 passenger vehicle

216 Dongfeng Sokon

Battery

A00

Sedan

Fengon E1

113.9

217 Dongfeng Sokon

Battery

-

Crossover DFSK C36 passenger vehicle

178.0

218 Dongfeng Infiniti Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Infiniti Q50L

318.6

219 Dongfeng Infiniti Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Infiniti QX50

335.1

220 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Huanchi

230.6

221 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Kia KX3

222.7

222 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Yipao

245.2 (continued)

Appendix

369

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

223 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Forte

235.1

224 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Kia K3

255.7

225 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Kia KX5

286.7

226 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Kia KX7

322.2

227 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Ace

287.2

228 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Optima

259.5

229 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Carnival

333.0

230 Dongfeng Yueda KIA Motors Co., Ltd

Plug-in hybrid

A

Sedan

Kia K3

177.1

231 Fujian Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Benz V

395.7

232 Fujian Benz Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Vito

385.1

233 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Honda Fit

230.5

234 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Vezel

262.7

235 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Crider

258.4

236 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Integra

232.3

237 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Breeze

305.7

238 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Acura CDX

284.2

239 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Accord

289.8

240 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Avancier

360.0

241 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Acura RDX

368.1 (continued)

370

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

242 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

Sedan

Crider

192.1

243 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

Breeze

236.8

244 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

Acura CDX

229.0

245 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

MPV

Odyssey

266.3

246 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

Sedan

Accord

208.2

247 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Breeze

196.0

248 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

SUV

Everus VE1 190.4

249 GAC Honda Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

B

Sedan

EA6

167.9

250 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Empow

224.9

251 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Trumpchi GS4

263.8

252 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Trumpchi GS4 Coupe

275.4

253 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Trumpchi GS4 PLUS

294.4

254 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Trumpchi GM6

313.4

255 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Trumpchi GA6

279.2

256 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Trumpchi GS8

362.8

257 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Trumpchi GS8 S

308.3

258 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Trumpchi GM8

344.8

259 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Trumpchi AION Y

186.7

260 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

B

Sedan

Trumpchi AION S

171.7

261 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

Trumpchi AION LX

229.7 (continued)

Appendix

371

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

262 GAC Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

SUV

Trumpchi AION V

215.7

263 GAC Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Renegade

291.0

264 GAC Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Compass

316.8

265 GAC Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Cherokee

356.7

266 GAC Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Grand 367.6 Commander

267 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

YARiS L Zhixiang

219.4

268 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Yaris L Zhixuan

230.8

269 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Levin

246.2

270 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Levin

249.6

271 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Toyota C-HR

247.6

272 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Wildlander

276.6

273 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Camry

279.2

274 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Highlander

374.0

275 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

Sedan

Levin

193.9

276 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

Wildlander

230.9

277 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

Sedan

Camry

236.7

278 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

SUV

Highlander

272.4

279 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

MPV

Sienna

249.1

280 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Wildlander

212.4

B

(continued)

372

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

281 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Toyota C-HR

169.9

282 GAC Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

Battery

B

Sedan

GAC iA5

169.2

283 GAC Mitsubishi Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

ASX

302.8

284 GAC Mitsubishi Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Outlander

331.4

285 GAC Mitsubishi Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Eclipse Cross

317.3

286 Guangzhou Xiaopeng Motors Technology Co

Battery

A0

SUV

XPeng G3

187.0

287 Guangzhou Xiaopeng Motors Technology Co

Battery

B

Sedan

XPeng P5

173.5

288 Guangzhou Xiaopeng Motors Technology Co

Battery

C

Sedan

XPeng P7

214.0

289 BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

BMW 1 Series

249.5

290 BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

BMW X1

299.7

291 BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

BMW X2

285.5

292 BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

BMW 3 Series

303.8

293 BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

BMW X3

317.3

294 BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

BMW 5 Series

324.7

295 BMW Brilliance Automotive Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

BMW iX3

217.6

296 Brilliance Shineray Chongqing Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

SWM G01

320.6

297 Brilliance Shineray Chongqing Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

SWM G05

329.5

298 Brilliance Shineray Chongqing Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

SWM X3

281.4

(continued)

Appendix

373

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

299 Brilliance Shineray Chongqing Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

SWM X7

329.1

300 Brilliance Shineray Chongqing Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline -

Crossover Xiaohaishi passenger X30 vehicle

263.9

301 Brilliance Shineray Chongqing Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline -

Crossover Xiaohaishi passenger X30L vehicle

296.7

302 Brilliance Shineray Chongqing Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

Crossover Xiaohaishi passenger X30L vehicle

147.4

-

303 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Territory

293.2

304 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Everest

421.7

305 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Equator

341.9

306 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Tourneo

417.9

307 Jiangling Motors Co., Ltd

Diesel

A

SUV

Yusheng

347.7

308 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Leapmotor T03

136.2

309 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

Sedan

Leapmotor S01

140.0

310 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

Leapmotor C11

220.3

311 Chery Jaguar LandRover Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Discovery Sport

332.2

312 Chery Jaguar LandRover Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Jaguar E-PACE

341.5

313 Chery Jaguar LandRover Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Evoque

333.7

314 Chery Jaguar LandRover Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Jaguar XEL

292.9

315 Chery Jaguar LandRover Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Jaguar XFL

330.5

316 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A0

SUV

Tiggo 3X

277.8

317 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

Sedan

Arrizo 5 PLUS

275.0

318 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

Sedan

Arrizo EX

289.6

319 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

Sedan

Arrizo GX

289.2 (continued)

374

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

320 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

SUV

Jetour X70

332.6

321 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

SUV

Jetour X70M

299.7

322 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

SUV

Tiggo 5X

299.6

323 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

SUV

Tiggo 7

285.9

324 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

SUV

Tiggo 8

306.2

325 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

SUV

Exeed LX

285.6

326 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline A

SUV

Exeed TX

310.1

327 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline B

SUV

Jetour X90

336.2

328 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline B

SUV

Lanyue

329.6

329 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Gasoline B

SUV

Exeed TXL

310.1

330 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery

A00

Sedan

Chery eQ1

117.1

331 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery

A00

Sedan

Chery QQ Ice Cream

92.1

332 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery

A

Sedan

Arrizo 5e

185.7

333 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery

A

SUV

Tiggo E

172.5

334 Chery Automobile Co., Ltd Battery

B

SUV

Ant

196.4

335 Shandong Maillard Energy Battery Technology Co., Ltd

A00

Sedan

Letin Mango

116.1

336 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A0

SUV

MG ZS

269.8

337 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

MG5

246.9

338 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

MG6

308.0

339 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Roewe i5

246.4

340 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Roewe i6

247.0

341 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

Sedan

Roewe i6 MAX

247.0

342 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

MG HS

350.5

343 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

MG ONE

273.0

344 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Linghang

351.2 (continued)

Appendix

375

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

345 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Roewe RX3 269.5

346 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Roewe RX5 329.4

347 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline A

SUV

Roewe RX5 363.0 MAX

348 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline B

SUV

Roewe RX8 408.1

349 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Gasoline B

MPV

Roewe iMAX8

353.4

350 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Roewe eRX5

217.1

351 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A00

Sedan

SAIC Clever

111.5

352 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A

Sedan

Roewe Ei5

169.1

353 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A

Sedan

Roewe R6

170.8

354 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

A

Sedan

Roewe i6 MAX

166.9

355 SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle Company

Battery

B

SUV

Roewe Marvel R

207.2

356 Shanghai NIO Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

NIO EC6

227.0

357 Shanghai NIO Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

NIO ES6

217.0

358 Shanghai NIO Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

C

SUV

NIO ES8

231.5

359 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

MAXUS G50

306.6

360 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

MAXUS D60

307.9

361 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

MAXUS G10

422.6

362 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

MAXUS G20

396.2

363 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Diesel

MPV

MAXUS G10

368.4

B

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

(continued)

376

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

364 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Diesel

B

MPV

MAXUS G20

370.8

365 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Diesel

C

SUV

MAXUS D90

389.7

366 SAIC Maxus Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A

MPV

MAXUS EUNIQ 5

189.4

367 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Volkswagen 215.5 Polo

368 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Lavida

260.5

369 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Lamando

275.8

370 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Octavia

252.6

371 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Suna Santana

228.3

372 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Rapid Spaceback

230.9

373 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Rapid

250.6

374 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Kodiaq

333.0

375 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Kodiaq GT

327.5

376 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Karoq

236.0

377 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Kamiq

248.4

378 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Kamiq GT

245.2

379 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

T-Cross

224.3

380 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Tharu

293.2

381 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Touran

269.7

382 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Passat

310.3 (continued)

Appendix

377

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

383 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Superb

288.4

384 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Tiguan L

341.1

385 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Tiguan X

290.8

386 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Viloran

329.7

387 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Phideon

282.0

388 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

SUV

Teramont

358.0

389 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

SUV

Teramont X

354.4

390 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Volkswagen 168.6 ID.3

391 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Lavida

392 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Volkswagen 203.2 ID.4 X

393 SAIC Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

Volkswagen 203.8 ID.6 X

394 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Encore

239.9

395 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Trax

239.5

396 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Excelle

299.3

397 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Monza

241.6

398 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Cavalier

240.1

399 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Verano

252.6

400 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Verano Pro

234.0

401 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Excellegt GT

251.1

158.5

(continued)

378

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

402 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Excellegx

245.6

403 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Encore GX

275.6

404 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Envision

360.2

405 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Trailblazer

278.9

406 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Equinox

340.4

407 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Buick GL6

276.7

408 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Regal

332.6

409 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Lacrosse

312.5

410 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Cadillac CT4

274.2

411 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Malibu XL

280.9

412 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Orlando

279.8

413 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Enclave

329.2

414 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Envision Plus

300.7

415 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Envision S

311.7

416 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Blazer

326.8

417 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Cadillac XT4

319.5

418 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Cadillac XT5

360.1

419 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Cadillac XT6

350.7

420 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Buick GL8

373.5 (continued)

Appendix

379

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

421 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Cadillac CT5

303.4

422 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Cadillac CT6

325.2

423 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Buick Velite 166.2 6

424 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Menlo

425 SAIC General Motors Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Buick Velite 167.4 7

426 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Baojun 310

237.7

427 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Baojun 510

268.8

428 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Baojun RS-3

269.2

429 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

MPV

Baojun 730

324.3

430 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

MPV

Wuling 730

264.5

431 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

MPV

Wuling hongguang S

278.0

432 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

MPV

Wuling hongguang V

271.3

433 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Baojun 310 W

270.2

434 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Baojun RC-5

270.5

435 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Baojun Valli 269.7

436 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Baojun 530

321.7

437 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Baojun RS-5

327.5

438 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Asta

278.7

166.2

(continued)

380

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

439 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Baojun 360

280.9

440 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Baojun RM-5

304.5

441 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Victory

317.4

442 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

MPV

Wuling hongguang PLUS

292.3

443 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Baojun RC-6

298.5

444 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Wuling hongguang S3

313.5

445 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

MPV

Wuling Journey

296.7

446 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline -

Crossover Wuling passenger Rongguang vehicle

287.7

447 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline -

Crossover Wuling passenger Rongguang vehicle S

263.9

448 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline -

Crossover Wuling passenger Zhiguang vehicle

233.6

449 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Baojun E100

108.7

450 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Baojun E200

109.4

451 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Baojun E300

126.0

452 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Baojun kiwi 126.7

453 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Hongguang Mini

454 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A00

Sedan

Wuling nano 105.4

455 SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

-

Crossover Wuling passenger Rongguang vehicle

91.9

164.2

(continued)

Appendix

381

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

456 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A0 Automobile Co., Ltd

SUV

Peugeot 2008

215.6

457 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A0 Automobile Co., Ltd

SUV

Citroen C3-XR

272.3

458 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A Automobile Co., Ltd

Sedan

Peugeot 408 246.2

459 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A Automobile Co., Ltd

SUV

Peugeot 4008

270.3

460 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline A Automobile Co., Ltd

SUV

Aircross

287.7

461 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline B Automobile Co., Ltd

Sedan

Peugeot 508L

261.8

462 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline B Automobile Co., Ltd

Sedan

Versailles C5X

248.4

463 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline B Automobile Co., Ltd

SUV

Peugeot 5008

286.9

464 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Gasoline C Automobile Co., Ltd

Sedan

Citroen C6

282.6

465 Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroen Battery Automobile Co., Ltd

A

Sedan

e-Elysee

141.6

466 Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd

Battery

B

Sedan

Tesla Model 187.8 3

467 Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

Tesla Model 206.6 Y

468 WM Motor Technology Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

WM Ex5

169.7

469 WM Motor Technology Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

WM W6

166.9

470 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Audi Q2L

256.7

471 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Audi A3

244.8

472 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Bora

289.2

473 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Golf

256.4

474 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Jetta VA3

222.3 (continued)

382

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

475 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Sagitar

273.6

476 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

C-Trek

250.1

477 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Audi Q3

331.5

478 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Audi Q3 Sportback

305.8

479 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Jetta VS5

277.8

480 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Jetta VS7

277.2

481 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

T-Roc

290.2

482 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Tacqua

243.3

483 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Tayron

332.1

484 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Tayron X

300.9

485 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Audi A4L

302.8

486 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Volkswagen 294.4 CC

487 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Magotan

337.6

488 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Audi Q5L

313.3

489 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Audi Q5L Sportback

309.2

490 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Audi A6L

359.7

491 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

SUV

Talagon

375.9

492 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

SUV

Audi Q2L

161.9

493 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Bora

158.6 (continued)

Appendix

383

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

494 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Golf

159.2

495 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Volkswagen 217.1 ID.4 CROZZ

496 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

Audi e-tron

497 FAW-Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd

Battery

B

SUV

Volkswagen 205.9 ID.6 CROZZ

498 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Vios

226.7

499 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

Sedan

Vios FS

222.6

500 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Carola

241.9

501 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

Sedan

Allion

255.8

502 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Toyota RAV4

277.2

503 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Harrier

251.4

504 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

IZOA

247.6

505 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Avalon

268.5

506 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

Sedan

Carola

193.0

507 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

Toyota RAV4

232.2

508 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

A

SUV

IZOA

208.9

509 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

Sedan

Avalon

208.0

510 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

NOVC hybrid

B

SUV

Crown Kluger

268.6

511 FAW TOYOTA Motor Sales Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

IZOA

167.3

512 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline A0

SUV

Besturn T33 287.2

269.5

(continued)

384

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

513 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Besturn T55 276.2

514 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Besturn T77 293.7

515 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Besturn B70 291.3

516 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

Sedan

Hongqi H5

517 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Besturn T99 329.7

299.5

518 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Hongqi HS5 347.3

519 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Hongqi H7

371.0

520 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

Sedan

Hongqi H9

374.1

521 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Gasoline C

SUV

Hongqi HS7 450.0

522 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Battery

MPV

Besturn NAT

A0

163.5

523 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Battery

A

Sedan

Besturn B30 157.5

524 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Hongqi E-HS3

191.7

525 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Battery

C

Sedan

Hongqi E-QM5

174.0

526 FAW Car Co., Ltd

Battery

C

SUV

Hongqi E-HS9

272.4

527 Yibin Cowin Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline A

SUV

Xuanjie

274.2

528 Yibin Cowin Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Xuanjie

163.3

529 Hozon New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

Sedan

Neta V

133.0

530 Hozon New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A0

SUV

Neta N01

148.6

531 Hozon New Energy Automobile Co., Ltd

Battery

A

SUV

Neta U

185.3

532 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A0

SUV

Bingyue

261.9

533 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A0

SUV

Lynk&Co 06

264.2

534 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A0

SUV

Yuanjing X3 262.3

535 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

Sedan

Binray

255.0 (continued)

Appendix

385

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

536 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

Sedan

Emgrand

258.0

537 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

Sedan

Emgrand GL

257.5

538 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

Sedan

Emgrand L

246.9

539 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

Sedan

Lynk&Co 03

307.3

540 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

Sedan

Vision

285.4

541 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Boyue

322.5

542 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Emgrand GS

281.3

543 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Emgrand S

249.6

544 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Geely icon

283.1

545 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Lynk&Co 01

310.3

546 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Lynk&Co 02

295.5

547 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Lynk&Co 05

326.9

548 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Xingyue

335.0

549 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

SUV

Vision SUV 297.1

550 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline A

MPV

Jiaji

323.9

551 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline B

Sedan

Borui GE

323.6

552 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline B

Sedan

Preface

256.0

553 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline B

SUV

Haoyue

331.9

554 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline B

SUV

Xingyue L

316.9 (continued)

386

Appendix

Table 5 (continued) No. Enterprise name

Fuel type Vehicle Vehicle class category

Vehicle model

Carbon emission per unit mileage (gCO2 e/km)

555 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Gasoline C

SUV

Lynk&Co 09

341.0

556 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Lynk&Co 01

211.0

557 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Lynk&Co 05

211.8

558 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Plug-in hybrid

A

SUV

Xingyue

200.2

559 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Plug-in hybrid

C

Sedan

Geely TX

227.2

560 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Battery

A0

SUV

Geometry EX3

142.5

561 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Battery

A

Sedan

Emgrand

181.0

562 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Battery

A

Sedan

Emgrand EV Pro

165.5

563 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Battery

A

Sedan

Geometry A 174.6

564 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Battery

A

SUV

Geometry C 181.8

565 Zhejiang Geely Holding Group

Battery

C

Sedan

Zeekr 001

243.0

566 Zhengzhou Nissan Automobile Co., Ltd

Gasoline B

SUV

Terra

391.5

Appendix

387

Table 6 China’s Regional Power Structure in 2019 地区

Nuclear power

Wind power

Hydropower

Tianjin

0

8.06

0.15

Thermal power 708.49

Shanxi

0

212.13

43.18

2853.44

Shandong

38.67

213.55

4.64

5524.79

Hebei

0

282.64

10.54

2809.74

Beijing

0

3.49

9.91

434.33

Inner Mongolia

0

630.99

36.49

4164.48

Liaoning

301.57

165.09

33.57

1453.8

Jilin

0

104.82

63.4

676.94

Heilongjiang

0

124.63

26.2

876.2

Yunnan

0

220

2695.31

291.89

Hainan

77.17

5.14

25.51

211.23

Guizhou

0

68.41

714.93

1221.96

Guangxi

160.96

41.99

699.43

820.61

Guangdong

892.41

63.14

255.65

3467.52

Xinjiang

0

359.84

251.42

2572.95

Shaanxi

0

72.22

137.01

1639.69

Qinghai

0

37.57

517.9

124.36

Ningxia

0

186.83

19.76

1367.77

Gansu

0

230.06

411.37

803.44 1073.43

Jiangxi

0

41.18

120.28

Hunan

0

60.35

535.75

923.42

Hubei

0

64.4

1465.49

1238.39

Henan

0

56.89

143.95

2774.96

Chongqing

0

8.26

257.85

543.42

Tibet

0

0.14

57.28

2.93

Sichuan

0

54.65

3162.67

453.47

Shanghai

0

17.73

0

823.75

Jiangsu

242.18

172.53

33.22

4578.08

Zhejiang

586.94

30.59

180.02

2595.26

Anhui

0

50.09

53.84

2533.74

Fujian

643.68

72.3

351.17

1398.71

388

Appendix

Power structure Fujian

Anhui Zhejiang Jiangsu Shanghai

Sichuan Ti bet Chongqing Henan

Hubei Hunan Jiangxi

Gansu Ningxia Qinghai Shaanxi

Xinjiang Guangdong Guangxi Guizhou

Hainan Yunnan Heilongji ang Jilin Liaoning Inner Mongolia Bei jing

Hebei Shandong Shanxi Ti anjin 0%

25% Nuclear power

50% Wind power

Hydropower

75% Thermal power

100%