Cantankerous Essays: Musings of a Disillusioned Japanophile 9781898823322

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CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

Ronald Dore

Cantankerous Essays y

Musings of a Disillusioned Japanophile y

RONALD DORE

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS MUSINGS OF A DISILLUSIONED JAPANOPHILE

First published 2015 by RENAISSANCE BOOKS PO Box 219 Folkestone Kent CT20 2WP Renaissance Books is an imprint of Global Books Ltd © Ronald Dore 2015 978-1-898823-19-3 (hardback) 978-1-898823-32-2 (e-book) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A CIP catalogue entry for this book is available from the British Library

Set in Bembo 12 on 13.5 by Dataworks Printed in England by CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham, Wilts

For my sceptical son, Julian And for my grandson, Alexander who is rapidly learning to be sceptical And to my equally sceptical but loving and beloved companion, Maria

CONTENTS

y Introductory Musings Addendum 23 January 2015

xi xvii

Chapter 1

THE RETURN OF THE NEAR-NATIVE s 4HEINEQUALITYDEBATE s *ULY#OLLECTIVESELF DEFENCE A revitalized opposition? s 0RESSREACTION s 3EPTEMBER s 3EPTEMBER s 3EPTEMBER4HE#HINADOGTHATDIDNTBARK

1  15    

Chapter 2

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND THE PIKETTY BOOM s %CONOMICPERFORMANCE%0AND%0 s %CONOMICCONDITIONSOFBOTH%0AND%0 s 3OCIALCONDITIONSFOR%0 s 0RINTMONEY NOTBONDS s 3OCIALCONDITIONSFOR%0 s )NEQUALITY4HEMECHANISMS s 4HEHEARTOFTHEMATTER

37       

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CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

Chapter 3

OPMF, CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATISM AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICS s 3ACROSANCTTARGETS s 0ROBLEMSWITH/0-& s !BENOMICS s 4HEARGUMENTSFOR/0-& s -EDICINETURNINGINTOPOISON s "EBOLD4RYIT


59      

Chapter 4

*!0!.!.$#().!#/,,)3)/.#/523% s 3ENKAKU2ECENTHISTORY s 4HEQUIESCENTPERIOD s 4HElRSTSCUFmES s %NTERMISCHIEF s .ATIONALIZATIONTOTHWART)SHIHARA s 3HEERIMPLAUSIBILITY s &IRSTEXACERBATINGFACTOR(ISTORY s 3ECONDEXACERBATINGFACTOR 4OTALITARIANSOLIDARITY s 4HEOFlCIALRECORDS s 4HIRDEXACERBATINGFACTOR3TRENGTHENINGOFSTRATEGIC military alliance against China s #HINASDIPLOMATICSTANCE

71          87 

Chapter 5

JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA s 7HATACTUALLYHAPPENED s 4HESECRETNEGOTIATIONS s 0ROMISEBROKEN

90   

CONTENTS

s .ORTH+OREASSPORADICATTEMPTSATRESOLUTION s 2ECENTSTIRRINGS

ix

 

Chapter 6

A NEW BEGINNING? s %NTRENCHEDSTALEMATE s "REAKINGTHELOG JAM

101  

Chapter 7

THE NEW COLD WARS s 4HEENDINGOFTHE#OLD7AR s 4HE0UTINERA s 4HECOUNTER BLOC s 7HATARETHE5NITED3TATESGOALSINTHEREGION s -!$ANDTHE-EDVEDEVINTERLUDE s 'OODFENCESMAKEGOODNEIGHBOURS The problem of buffer states s 5KRAINE s #RIMEA s 2OUNDNUMBER s 3TATESANDNATION STATES s #ONCLUSION

111      123     

Chapter 8

FRIENDS, ALLIES AND ENEMIES



Chapter 9

HUMAN PROGRESS…? s #HANGINGPERCEPTIONS!GGRESSION s 'AMESTHEORY s 4OWARDSWORLDGOVERNMENT s 4HE5NITED.ATIONS s 4HEEVOLUTIONOFTHE5.

151     

Index

171

INTRODUCTORY MUSINGS

y I am not sure which member of the family bought one of those metallic stickers for fridge doors which said ‘In vino VERITAS)TURNEDITOVERANDWROTE INSTEAD @%TIAMSINVINO SEMPERVERITAS4HETRUTHALWAYS EVENWITHOUTWINE 4HEVIEWOFHUMANNATUREIMPLIEDINTHAT@INVINOVERITAS is hardly a noble one. It assumes that it is normal to dissemble slyly and consciously. We have secrets, some of which are ATTEMPTSTOJUSTIFYOURSELF INTERESTOFWHICHWEARESLIGHTLY ASHAMED SOMETOAVOIDOFFENDINGOTHERPEOPLE)TREQUIRESA bit of alcohol to loosen our tongues. )PREFERTOBELIEVEATLEASTINTHEPRINCIPLEOF+ANTSCATEgorical imperative that one must always tell the truth, except when we are constrained to lie by wholly altruistic reasons. When a gunman appears at your door and is obviously threatening harm to a sworn enemy who has taken refuge in your house, you do not answer truthfully when he asks ‘Is X INYOURHOUSE I cannot make the holier-than-thou claim that I live up to that Kantian imperative. For fear of seeming stiff-necked and un-neighbourly, I contribute to the corruption of Italian society by weakly agreeing when my neighbour the carpenter suggests that I pay him half in cash and only half against a receipt which will record his earnings and give him a tax liability. I do not need wine to make me willingly and worriedly confess that fact when I am having a discussion with

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FRIENDSABOUTTHEMORALITYOFCITIZENSHIP"UTOTHERWISE)JOIN the conspiracy of silence about tax evasion. The disparate essays in this book all partake of my capacITY FOR INDIGNATION INDIGNATION AT PERVERSE SELF INTERESTED refusal to acknowledge some awkward but clearly ascertainable fact, indignation at the inhibitions of political correctNESS WHICHNOLONGERAREABOUTSPARINGPEOPLESFEELINGS BUT simply about not rocking some disciplinary boat, indignation at the Manichean us-them mentality which prompts people to give the most reprehensible interpretation of the motive OFPEOPLEORNATIONSCLASSIlEDAS@THEMANDTOSANITIZETHE MOTIVES OF @US ) AT lRST CALLED THE BOOK @#ONSPIRACIES OF 3ILENCE BUTITISABITOFASTRETCHTOACCOMMODATEUNDERTHE same title, the silence of sociologists about genes, the refusal OFECONOMISTSTOTHINKSERIOUSLYABOUTINmATION THEBENIGN view the Western press takes of the childish irrationality of Japanese foreign policy, and the wholesale misconceptions about Ukraine propagated by the Western media and foreign OFlCESINPROSECUTIONOFTHENEWCOLDWARWITH2USSIA 3OINTHEEND )HAVESETTLEDFORATITLEWHICHREmECTSONE principal characteristic of all these essays, namely indignation. And before anyone should think otherwise, I readily CONFESSTOHAVEENJOYEDTHECANTANKEROUSNATUREOFSOME IF not all, of them, and am deeply grateful to my publisher for HAVINGENCOURAGEDMETODOSO
I begin with the most recent essay-diary which explains, QUITE FULLY ) HOPE MY OWN AMBIGUOUS FEELINGS TOWARDS modern Japan expressed in my subtitle about a Disillusioned Japanophile. Then follow the two more general essays which were WRITTENBEFORETHISCOLLECTIONACQUIREDITS*APAN CENTRICBIAS lRST TO DEPLORE THE WAY IN WHICH MOST SOCIOLOGISTS AND many social psychologists, try to avoid any discussion of genetic factors in determining human personalities, tastes, or capacities, preferring to operate on the assumption that

INTRODUCTORY MUSINGS

xiii

it is primarily social, remediable environmental factors which explain the variance in wealth, income, status, selfrespect, dignity among individuals and that these factors can be remedied, if only the power structure of society were changed. The essay on the ‘Social Conditions for Economic 0ERFORMANCEEXAMINESPOSSIBLEEXPLANATIONSFORTHISTABOO The second example (‘OPMF1, Central Bank ConservaTISMAND)NmATION ISABOUTTHEWAYINWHICHECONOMISTS with very few exceptions, fail to discuss seriously, the posSIBLE EFFECTS OF A COUNTRY HAVING AN INmATION RATE GREATER THANPERCENT4HATlGUREHASBEENINCORPORATEDINTOTHE mythology the world community of central bankers seeks to maintain, and is axiomatically accepted by most of the comMUNITY OF UNIVERSITY AND JOURNALIST ECONOMISTS AS THE IDEAL EQUILIBRIUMPOINT THOUGHIDEALFORWHATISHARDLYEVERMADE clear. See the essay ‘OPMF, Central Bank Conservatism and )NmATIONFORSPECULATIONONTHEORIGINSOFTHATTABOO ASWELL as an amateur attempt to estimate what might happen if the IDEALlGUREWEREINSTEADSETATnPERCENT ! FOURTH ESSAY @#OLLISION #OURSE THOUGH SPECIlCALLY about Japan and China also has more general implications SINCEITREmECTSABOUTTHEBINARYDICHOTOMOUSUS THEMTHINKINGWHICHCOMESSOEASILYTOHUMANBEINGS!N@INSIDERSENSE of belonging to community X (a village, a religious sect, a soccer fan club, a nation) usually implies a certain cognitive map of the non-X communities, which divides them into allies with whom one cooperates, enemies with whom one COMPETES AND @INDIFFERENTS 'LOBALIZATION AND THE CREATION OFLARGEPOWERBLOCS@THE7EST 2USSIAANDSATELLITES #HINA and satellites) is steadily reducing the category of ‘indifferENTS4HEESSAYISABOUTTHEINTENSEDISPUTEBETWEEN*APAN and China over the sovereignty of what the Japanese call the /VERTPERMANENTMONETARYlNANCINGOFTHElSCALDElCITnAPHRASE COINEDBY!DAIR4URNER3EEPPn

1

xiv

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

Senkaku and the Chinese the Diaoyu islands. The indignaTIONISDIRECTED NOTJUSTATTHEINEPTNESS AND INDEED MENDACIOUSNESSOF*APANESEOFlCIALPOLICYBUTALSOATTHOSE7ESTERN observers who see the dispute as an example of an aggressive and expansionist China harassing a blameless Japan. I explain THIS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF *APANS POSITION AS AN ALLY OF @THE 7EST WHICHLEADSPEOPLETOIGNORETHEFACTTHATITIS*APAN rather than China whose bellicosity lies at the origin of the dispute. I provide the detailed evidence of events which show how the source of their dispute lay in the Japanese governMENTSUNILATERALREPUDIATIONOFANUNDERSTANDINGWITH#HINA which had hitherto lasted nearly forty years. 4HE lFTH CONSPIRACY IS SIMILAR *APANS IRRATIONAL PROLONgation of a dispute with North Korea over Japanese whom the Korean government acknowledges were kidnapped by Koreans in the 1970s and the unwillingness of its Western allies to appreciate the extent to which that ten-year-old dispute was prolonged by Japanese, more than by Korean intransigence. Until recently, that is, with a change in one important part in the stalemate structure. The couple who were leaders of the (doubtless well subsidised) Society of kidnappee Parents had hitherto unrelentingly insisted that their daughter Mayumi was, contrary to North Korean reports, still alive. They had refused all offers from North Korea to INVITETHEMTOVISITTHEIRGRANDCHILDREN"UTlNALLY ASTHEY were both nearing eighty they relented. A visit was arranged on the neutral ground of Mongolia. 4HE SIXTH OBJECT OF MY INDIGNATION IS A REAL EXPLICIT conspiracy, namely an agreement among the six REPRESENTATIVES OF THE lVE 3ECURITY #OUNCIL NATIONS PLUS Germany, negotiating with Iran over its nuclear ambitions and facilities. Newspaper reports say that they have agreed NOTTOALLOWDISCUSSIONOF)SRAELSNUCLEARCAPABILITIES ORITS APPARENTINTENTIONTOCREATE@FACTSONTHEGROUNDTHATWILL allow it to absorb the whole West Bank.

INTRODUCTORY MUSINGS

xv

Next comes the farrago of lies and partial truths exchanged each day over the situation in Ukraine, becoming more extreme as the US-Russian cold war becomes institutionalized. My perception, contrary to that of the Western press, is that the US is more guilty of imperialist expansion than Russia. #HAPTER  @&RIENDS !LLIES AND %NEMIES CONSIDERS OUR world as a pattern of alliances and confrontations. Finally, I conclude with a chapter entitled ‘Human 0ROGRESSx 4HE@SOCIALCONDITIONSESSAYWASWRITTENTOORDERFORTHEFORTIETHANNIVERSARYSEMINAROFTHATSPLENDIDJOURNAL Stato e Mercato. !LLTHEOTHERSWERESUBSEQUENTLYWRITTENINBURSTSOFINDIGNAtion at something I had read which seemed to me outrageous self-deception, twisted logic, self-interested misinformation, @TELESCOPE TO BLIND EYE PERVERSITY OR WHATEVER !PART FROM Stato e Mercato one other essay (OPMF) has been printed in TRANSLATIONINAN)TALIANACADEMICJOURNALEconomia Politica) and a shortened version of Collision Course in the Corriere della Sera. The second chapter has gone through several revisions, the latest, of course, being to take on the Piketty boom, WHICHBURSTUPONTHEWORLDAFTERTHElRSTDRAFTWASWRITTEN for the thirtieth birthday seminar of the editorial board of Stato e Mercato. Just before that I had written in Japanese for a Japanese audience a history of post-war Japan, interweaved with my personal intellectual autobiography. In one chapter I describe the implosion in the Anglophone countries in the LATESEVENTIESOFTHE@MIXEDECONOMY+EYNESIANMODELOF the Golden Age, and the transition to dominance, thanks to Volcker, Reagan and Thatcher of the neo-liberal doctrines OFTHESMALLSTATE DEREGULATION LOWINmATIONANDACCEPTANCE OFMARKETOUTCOMESASOPTIMALMANIFESTATIONSOF'ODSWILL 2 backed up by dogmatic neo-classical economics. 4OCQUEVILLESPHRASEFORTHEFEUDALORDEROFTHE!NCIEN2ÏGIME

2

xvi

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

I go on to record the birth of Stato e Mercato at that time, how the earlier dominance of studies of corporatism, gave way to a preoccupation with varieties of capitalism and how MUCH)PROlTEDFROMFRIENDSWHOADMITTEDMETOTHE3AND -CLUB)THENGOONTOCONFESSTOACERTAINJEALOUSYATTHE fact that the discussion of varieties of capitalism has tended TOREVOLVEONANAXISCREATEDBY(ALLAND3OSKICESVarieties of Capitalism.3 According to Google their volume has been CITED  TIMES AND MY Stock Market Capitalism: Welfare Capitalism: Japan and Germany versus the Anglo-Saxons a mere 833 times. I went on, spitefully, to attribute the difference to four FACTORS 1. Their book deals with a dimension of ideal types with LME (Liberal Market Economy) and CME (Coordinated Market Economy) as polar types, mine is comparatively descriptive of four concrete economies. 2. They are studiously value-neutral scholarly, whereas I make QUITECLEARMYVALUEPREFERENCESMYBOOKCANREASONABLYBE CLASSIlEDASPOLEMICALANDJOURNALISTICRATHERTHANACADEMIC 3. As their subtitle suggests, they are not really value neutral. They COUNTASTHEMAJOROBJECTIVENATIONALCOMPETITIVENESS WHAT) call in Chapter 1 EP1 (Economic Performance 1) whereas I COUNTASTHEMAJOROBJECTIVEWHAT)SHALLCALL%0%CONOMIC Performance 2).  My book is written in prose which is too easy to understand to BEJUDGEDSCHOLARLY

… I hope these essays are also readable and entertainingly polemical. I should confess that putting these disparate essays 3

Peter A. Hall and David Soskice, eds. Varieties of Capitalism: The institutional foundations of comparative advantage, Oxford, OUP, 2001.

INTRODUCTORY MUSINGS

xvii

into the same pair of covers was an after-thought, but I hope NOTANABSURDONE)HAVEALWAYSENJOYEDGETTINGINDIGNANT and feeling self-righteous and I liked the phrase ‘Speaking TRUTHTO0OWER)AMPRETTYCONlDENTINTHETRUTHBIT BUT) have never found Power ready to listen to me, in spite of my LENGTHYDOSSIEROF@,ETTERSTOTHE%DITORTHIRTYYEARSAGOTO The Times. Latterly to the Financial Times. 7HEN ) GET A REJECTION OF ONE OF THESE ESSAYS FROM A British editor or publisher, I ought to be, but am not entirely, consoled by the fact that in 1950 Bertrand Russell produced a volume of essays entitled Unpopular Essays. It has GONETHROUGHEIGHTEDITIONS THELATESTIN2USSELLWAS my intellectual hero sixty years ago. His History of Western philosophyAND!YERSLanguage, Truth and Logic, provided a substitute for the university education I never had. I have BEENTRYINGTOEMULATE2USSELLSWITANDWISDOMEVERSINCE WITHOUTMUCHCONlDENCETHATATMYAGE)SHALLEVERMAKEIT Ronald Dore Grizzana Morandi -AY ADDENDUM 23 JANUARY 2015

Temporary the euphoria seemed to have been when Abe sailed effortlessly to victory in the Lower House election of $ECEMBER  EMERGING WITH THE SAME OVERWHELMING MAJORITYOFSEATSASHEHADBEFORE)FONELOOKSATTHEDETAIL though, the election was far from a sweeping endorsement of the direction that the Abe government was taking. The Jisedai no To, which supported Abe but outdid him in its chauvinism and emphasis on defence expenditure, was ingloriously defeated, falling from nineteen to two seats. Meanwhile, the Communist Party, revitalized by its opposition to Collective

INTRODUCTORY MUSINGS

xvii

into the same pair of covers was an after-thought, but I hope NOTANABSURDONE)HAVEALWAYSENJOYEDGETTINGINDIGNANT and feeling self-righteous and I liked the phrase ‘Speaking TRUTHTO0OWER)AMPRETTYCONlDENTINTHETRUTHBIT BUT) have never found Power ready to listen to me, in spite of my LENGTHYDOSSIEROF@,ETTERSTOTHE%DITORTHIRTYYEARSAGOTO The Times. Latterly to the Financial Times. 7HEN ) GET A REJECTION OF ONE OF THESE ESSAYS FROM A British editor or publisher, I ought to be, but am not entirely, consoled by the fact that in 1950 Bertrand Russell produced a volume of essays entitled Unpopular Essays. It has GONETHROUGHEIGHTEDITIONS THELATESTIN2USSELLWAS my intellectual hero sixty years ago. His History of Western philosophyAND!YERSLanguage, Truth and Logic, provided a substitute for the university education I never had. I have BEENTRYINGTOEMULATE2USSELLSWITANDWISDOMEVERSINCE WITHOUTMUCHCONlDENCETHATATMYAGE)SHALLEVERMAKEIT Ronald Dore Grizzana Morandi -AY ADDENDUM 23 JANUARY 2015

Temporary the euphoria seemed to have been when Abe sailed effortlessly to victory in the Lower House election of $ECEMBER  EMERGING WITH THE SAME OVERWHELMING MAJORITYOFSEATSASHEHADBEFORE)FONELOOKSATTHEDETAIL though, the election was far from a sweeping endorsement of the direction that the Abe government was taking. The Jisedai no To, which supported Abe but outdid him in its chauvinism and emphasis on defence expenditure, was ingloriously defeated, falling from nineteen to two seats. Meanwhile, the Communist Party, revitalized by its opposition to Collective

xviii

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

Defence, increased its representation from eight to twentyone seats. And only 52 per cent of electors bothered to vote. Many OF THE lRST TIME DROP OUTS HAD DOUBTLESS ONCE HELD HOPES that the Minshuto might become an effective opposition and had become disappointed. The result is a kind of stalemate, a policy paralysis. Abe hesitates to push his aggressive foreign policy intentions, but WOULDlERCELYRESISTANYRETREATFROMTHEMnEGONTHESYMBOLICISSUEOFAPOLOGIESTOWARTIME@COMFORTWOMEN A website which keeps track of the details of voting behaviour, etc. (Mediawatch) offers the following diagram to INDICATETHEPOSITIONSOFEIGHTPOLITICALPARTIESANDlVEMAJOR newspapers on Collective Defence as of 19 December, and there has been no perceptible change since then.

The same website acts as a lively discussion forum on the issue, and has had a running poll inviting people to vote. People who read this website are doubtless better informed and concerned than the average Japanese, and this is far from being a normal opinion poll sample, but so far the cumulated number supporting Collective Defence was  WITH  OPPOSED AND  WHO REFUSED TO TAKE A clear position.

INTRODUCTORY MUSINGS

xix

-EANWHILE THEREHASBEENNOCHANGEWHATEVERIN*APANS foreign policy position. Japanese diplomats, after much painFULEFFORTIN"EIJING MANAGEDTOARRANGEAMEETINGBETWEEN Abe and Xi when they both attended an Asian economic summit in November. As The New York Times reported, the meeting hardly contributed to friendship and goodwill BETWEENTHETWOCOUNTRIES There were no smiles or banter between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping when THEYSHOOKHANDSON-ONDAYATTHE!SIA 0ACIlC%CONOMIC #OOPERATION!0%# SUMMITIN"EIJING)NSTEAD BOTHMEN were stern-faced and when Abe attempted to speak to Xi, the latter simply turned away to face the cameras.

3O TO GO BACK TO QUESTIONS OF EUPHORIA OR GLOOM WHAT comfort can people who shared my gloom take from recent events? Very little. The creation, thanks to the Collective Defence issue of an organized anti-Abe nucleus in the Asahi, Mainichi and the Communist Party is to be welcomed, but given its still tiny dimensions, and its only loose cohesion, THERESEEMSLITTLECHANCETHATITWILLEVERACQUIREREALPOWER

Chapter 1

THE RETURN OF THE NEAR-NATIVE

y I should explain. I was one of those who did well out of the war. At the age of seventeen, I was given eighteen MONTHSTOLEARN*APANESEATTHEEXPENSEOFTHE7AR/FlCE !TSEVENTEEN ONEISSTILLLINGUISTICALLYmEXIBLE SO)BECAME QUITE mUENT ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS SO THAN THOSE WHO STARTED learning the language at age nought.My knowledge of that language became the basis of my whole career. In total, I have probably spent ten or eleven years in Japan, mostly doing research. !NDINMYYEARSIN*APAN)HAVEACQUIREDENOUGHOFASENSE that Japan is my second home to get as hot under the collar about the stupid things its government does, as I do when I read a particularly devious speech by David Cameron. But, it is not the occasionally odd accenting of my speech which sets me apart from natives. It is my Caucasian face. Plus the fact that the English culture, values, weltanschaung IN WHICH ) SPENT THOSE lRST SEVENTEEN YEARS WAS DIFFERENT from those in which my friends were brought up. Even with many of my closest Japanese friends, the consciousness that we are of different tribes is there somewhere below the SURFACE3O@NEAR NATIVE

2

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

(OW NEAR ) LEAVE TO THE READER TO JUDGE ) ARRIVED IN *APAN ON  *UNE  FOR AN INDElNITE STAY AND KEPT A @FOR PUBLICATION DIARY NOTING PARTICULARLY THINGS LIKE THE WIFECHAUFFEUR SYNDROME ) MENTION ON THE lRST DAY that a non-Japanese reader would not, as I normally DO TAKE FOR GRANTED (ERE IS THAT DIARY FOR THE lRST TEN days. 1 June Arrived at Narita and took the bus to the Keio Plaza Hotel where my friend Prof. N was waiting to take me to the mansuri manshon (monthly mansion) that he had sussed OUTFORME)HADNTBEENINTHATHOTELFORABOUTTHIRTYYEARS when I was put up in its luxury for a conference. There on THE th mOOR ) LEARNED AT lRST HAND OF THE EFlCIENCY WITH WHICHTHE*APANESEBUILDFOREARTHQUAKES7EJUSTSWAYED SUITCASESSLIDBACKANDFORTHONTHEmOORASTHEYDIDINTHE "AYOF"ISCAYONMYlRSTCARGO BOATTRIPTO*APANIN "UTITWASAMILDEARTHQUAKEANDWESOONSETTLEDDOWNTOAN upright position, .HASJUSTFOUNDAPUBLISHERFORHISLENGTHYBIOGRAPHYOF a nineteenth-century American sociologist. We talk of the improbability of Japan ever producing such an iconoclast. 7EAREDRIVENTOTHEMANSIONBY-RS.,IKETHEMAJORITY of professors of his generation N has never learned to drive. They have all had wives of the traditional Ryosai Kenbo Good 7IFE7ISE-OTHERnTYPEWHONATURALLYACCEPTTHEROLEOF CHAUFFEURONCALL My one-room mansion is a spacious single room with separate bath and toilet. It has all mod. cons, including a washing machine earthed through a plug built into the wall when the place was built some ten year ago. Spacious fridge with freezer below, but only a single electric range, saucepan ANDFRYINGPANANDJUSTTWOSETSOFTABLEWARE/NEISONLY expected to entertain single guests. The bed, so low that I WOULDHAVEHADDIFlCULTYHAULINGMYSELFUPRIGHTFROMIT HAS

THE RETURN OF THE NEAR-NATIVE

3

been raised to a comfortable height by piles of books from .SLIBRARY Mrs N goes off to buy me some groceries. N gives me a book I had ordered to be delivered to him cheaply from Japanese Amazon by a rabidly right-wing political commentator that I had completely forgotten ever asking for. I am ASLEEPBEFORE-RS.RETURNS!EROmOTTREATSYOUASWELLAS OTHERAIRLINESANDATHALFTHEPRICE BUT)lNDITDIFlCULTTO sleep on planes. 2 June Still in set-up mode I look on the internet for a second-hand furniture dealer in my area. I have plenty of unused space and I want to be able to host dinner parties, even if my offerings will mostly be delivered at the door from a sushi shop or a Chinese restaurant. Wine from New Zealand, Australian or South African, is as abundant here as in Italy or the UK and at about the same modest price. It turns out that the closest second-hand dealer is at Tabata, a 22 Euro taxi ride away. But it proves to be a goldmine. A solid dining table that could seat eight, a tall dresser, a low chest of drawers, a bookcase, a set of wine glasses and two half-sets of sake cups with bottle, a photo-copier/printer, and a DVD player all for 1,300 Euros. Plus a ride back in THEOWNERSTRUCK(ETURNSOUTTOBEAVERYABLE"ENGALI WITH WHOLLY mUENT *APANESE (E STOPS ON THE WAY BACK for a slightly contentious phone discussion with his lawyer whom he has engaged to turn his business into a limited company and who, he believes, is trying to rip him off. He DOES A THOROUGH JOB OF ATTACHING THE TABLE TOP TO ITS BASE and promises to phone me if he gets any chairs. Tabata, I learn, has a high density of South Asians, as do two or three other spots in different parts of Tokyo. Other ghetto-like CONCENTRATIONSAREOF"RAZILIAN*APANESEWHOSElRSTLANGUAGE is Portuguese, of Chinese, many of them illegally staying on expired student visas, Koreans, resident since the war or



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

pre-war days with an allegiance to North Korea, ditto with an allegiance to South Korea, (both of whom have a special legal status as zainichi conferred on them or their parents or grandparents soon after the war) and recent South Korean immigrants whose status is the same as that of any foreigner. Inter-ethnic tension seems not to have been very high until recently when the popularity of Korean soap operas among Japanese middle-class housewives has led to an organized right-wing anti-Korean reaction and demonstrations against THEOFlCESOFTHE46CHANNELRESPONSIBLEFORBROADCASTING THESOAPS!NEWWORDHASENTEREDTHE*APANESELANGUAGE heetosupichi, Hate Speech. Some hate-speaking demonstrations have ended in nasty riots with considerable casualties. These have in turn sparked off local riots in areas where Koreans are concentrated. I stupidly left the power feed for my Toshiba laptop in Italy. A friend took my computer to a Toshiba shop. ‘Sorry, THISISA%UROPEANLAPTOP NOTA*APANESEONE7EDONTHAVE ANY  WATT FEEDS AND THE PLUG MIGHT NOT lT ANYWAY 7E COULDORDERONEFORYOUBUTITMIGHTTAKEAWEEK3OMUCH for the pitfalls of Globalization. I remember going to the Toshiba main factory south of Tokyo in 1950. My landlady was what counted then as being well off. Few families had an electric fan, but she did. The trouble was that the swivelling ACTIONDIDNTWORK)TWOULDONLYPRODUCEACONSTANTBLAST of cold air in a single direction. So I trotted off to the factory. As far as I can remember I found myself in a cavernous space occupied by only a single assembly line. There were a number of men standing around, not obviously occupied. I presented the problem and the fan to one of them and he QUITEHAPPILYTROTTEDOFF ANDCAMEBACKWITHTHEFANINFULL functioning order. I suppose some business historian must HAVEWRITTENABOOKABOUTTHESIXTY YEARTRAJECTORYFROMTHE somewhat slovenly relaxed Toshiba of 1950 to the ruthlessly EFlCIENTGLOBALGIANTTHATITISTODAY)TISAREMARKABLESTORY

THE RETURN OF THE NEAR-NATIVE

5

3 June Realized that I need money and had forgotten to BRINGACHEQUEBOOKFORTHEACCOUNTINTHE*APANESEBANK into which I get people to deposit my royalties. So I set off for the bank, armed with passport and account number. It should have been a simple matter of establishing identity and GIVINGMEASINGLECHEQUETOMAKETHECASHWITHDRAWAL)T ISNOTABANKFREQUENTEDBYMANYFOREIGNERSANDASAFOREIGN resident they have never allowed me to have an ATM card or passbook as Japanese residents have. As I was walking to the counter I was waylaid by a lady facilitator who asked me what I wanted, and took the passport and paper with account NUMBEROFFFORSOMESUPERIORSINSPECTION&IVEMINUTESLATER she came back to check that what I really wanted was to get some of my money and to hear me explain once again why )DIDNTHAVEAPASSBOOK &IVEMINUTESLATERSHECAMEBACK@$OYOUSPEAK%NGLISH SHEENQUIRED ANDPROMPTLYLEDMETOTHEDESKOFANERVOUS young man who asked me again in his hesitant English what it was I wanted. When he did not understand what I said in English I repeated it in Japanese. His expression revealed a CERTAINDISCOMFORT)WASSUBVERTINGHISJOBDESCRIPTIONWHICH was to deal with English-speaking foreigners. He never said a word to me in Japanese the whole time I was there. When I told him that I had had the account for twenty years (from a time, three amalgamations back, before the bank became one of the too-big-to-fails), that set off a lengthy hunt for my ORIGINALSIGNATURE3OMEBODYlNALLYPRODUCEDAPHOTOCOPY and after poring, with great care, over it and my current sigNATUREWHICH)GAVEHIM THEYlNALLYPRONOUNCEDMETOBE ME JUSTASTHEPHOTOGRAPHINMYPASSPORTSEEMEDTOINDICATE !NOTHER BACK ROOM CONSULTATION AND ) WAS lNALLY TOLD THE BALANCE IN MY ACCOUNT @'OOD CAN ) DRAW OUT lVE SIXTHSOFTHAT&URTHERBACKROOMCONSULTATIONABOUTISSUING ME WITH A CHEQUE ) READ THE PAPER WHILE WAITING Mr Conscientious, sat silently in contemplation. At one



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

point when I looked up, he asked me what I was doing in Japan. I told him I was doing research into how the Abe government was ruining Japan, which, when I had repeated it in Japanese so that he understood, sent him into paroxysms of embarrassment. Eventually, three signatures later, I left the bank with my money, one hour and twenty minutes after I entered it. 4HE INEFlCIENCY OF RETAIL BANKING IN THE COUNTRY THAT HASTHEMOSTEFlCIENTMANUFACTURINGINDUSTRYINTHEWORLD rivalled only by Germany, remains a mystery. And it is not only foreigners who suffer. When I recounted my experience to a friend, she said that she went to her bank to do someTHINGRELATIVELYSIMPLETOHERBED RIDDENMOTHERSACCOUNT and it took two hours. 4 June G came to supper. Former executive of JBIC, THE@INTERNATIONALCOOPERATIONBANKSPECIALIZINGINCHEAP loans to developing countries, retired at the standard age and now working for an oil exploration company. A bachelor with a very attractive young girl friend whom HE UNFORTUNATELY DIDNT BRING ALONG THIS TIME (E PRETTY MUCHSHARESMYGRIPESABOUT!BESCHAUVINISMANDEMASculation of the civil service, but when I asked him about THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE OFlCE AND WHAT DO HIS COLLEAGUES THINK ABOUT SUCH MATTERS HE SAID HE REALLY DIDNT KNOW WHATTHEYWERECONCERNEDWITHWASWHETHER!BESECOnomic policies would pull Japan permanently out of the doldrums. I guess that is typical. Apathy on issues of democracy vs authoritarianism, on whether the constitution is revised or GIVEN AN @EXPANDED INTERPRETATION AND ON ISSUES OF FOReign policy, the one exception being that 95 per cent of Japanese share with Abe an intense fear and dislike of the Chinese. For my own take on Abenomics, see Chapter 2.

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5 June Went shopping at the local supermarket. Greeted with warm smiles by one of the check-out ladies whom I had previously asked to collect stuff for me on the grounds that I FOUNDWALKINGDIFlCULTANDDIDNTKNOWWHEREANYTHINGWAS on the shelves. She offered to do it again, wrote herself a list to my dictation and bustled off. Such kindness abounds in Japan, doubtless enhanced in this case by my age and crutch, and also, probably, given her age group, by my being a white foreigner. The younger generation, however, can sometimes extend their xenophobia to Caucasian males, as I discovered SOMEYEARSAGOWHEN)RENTEDACARANDKNOCKEDSOMEBODYS wing mirror. No damage as far as I could see, but a nasty episode when he called the police. 6 June Visited by Mr T a senior NHK producer and camERATEAM(EJOKINGLYCOMPLAINEDTHATHEHADBEENLOOKING forward to getting a trip to Italy to interview me and I had cheated him by coming to Japan. He is making a documentary about my former friend Maruyama Masao, a political scientist who played an important part in shaping the intelLECTUAL ATMOSPHERE OF POST WAR *APAN -ARUYAMAS COMparison of German and Japanese fascism in the 1930s and S TRANSLATED AS Thought and behaviour in Japanese politics /50  ISESSENTIALREADINGFORANYONEINTERESTEDINTHE principles and practice of democracy and the way they can break down. It is also an excellent analysis of policy drift when there are sharp factional divisions among the elite, as IN*APANS@SYSTEMICIRRESPONSIBILITYINTHES When we got on to ‘what would Maruyama think of *APANTODAY)DIDNOTMINCEMYWORDS ANDTHEPRODUCER warmly agreed with me. Abe has appointed four notorious right-wingers to the NHK board and a chairman who is his poodle. The new chairman actually said when he took OVER THE JOB THAT IT WOULDNT DO FOR THE .(+ TO SAY LEFT when the government is saying right. The slant to the news

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and the documentary programming have notably changed. Some senior producers have resigned in disgust. T is hanging on, having had the Maruyama programme approved under the old regime, but when I bad-mouthed Abe, he asked me to say it again in more general terms without MENTIONING !BE HIMSELF (ED NEVER GET THAT THROUGH IN the programme. 7 June )VE AGREED TO TALK AT A UNIVERSITY SEMINAR NEXT week on ‘The Piketty boom. A means of avoiding the ISSUE-YLINEISTHATTHEEMPHASISBY0IKETTYANDHISCRITics on the skewed distribution of wealth, exacerbated by DEATHDUTIESANDTAXHAVENS ASAMAJORSOURCEOFINEQUALity is only half the picture. The top 1 per cent of British taxpayers get only 32 per cent of their income from their CAPITALPERCENTISLABOURINCOMEANDITISTHEINCREASingly skewed distribution of labour income due to organizational power and the skewed distribution of learning ABILITY WHICH IS AT THE HEART OF GROWING INEQUALITY BOTH IN INCOME AND SELF RESPECT !ND BECAUSE NOT JUST LEARNing opportunity, but also learning ability becomes more and more crucial as the technology society uses becomes more complex, that can only be cured by various forms of redistribution. THE INEQUALITY DEBATE

"UTATANYRATE WITH0IKETTYSHELP INEQUALITYHASBEENPUT SQUARELY ON THE POLITICAL AGENDA IN THE !NGLOPHONE COUNtries. Obama rarely makes a speech without mentioning it, and The Wall Street JournalRUNSCOLUMNISTSWHOJEERATTHE bleeding hearts love-in and declare that it is real competition ANDTHETOLERANCEOFTHERESULTINGINEQUALITYWHICHHASMADE America great. And the Republicans veto a modest rise in the legal minimum wage.

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"UTINEQUALITYISNOTSUCHAHOTLYDEBATEDISSUEIN*APAN though the Japan paper in a series of national papers all of which use the same OECD statistics, is a thorough analysis by a group of scholars who go into every aspect of income INEQUALITY 4HE REASON WHY IT IS NOT SUCH A LIVE ISSUE IS PARTLY BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN INEQUALITY IS LESS STEEP THAN ININTHE53ORTHE5+4HEGINICOEFlCIENTFORINCOME BEFORETAXANDBENElTSROSEFROMINTOIN while, in the United States over the same time period, it WENTFROMTO According to another study, the gini for consumption expenditure on non-durables, a measure of the standard of living, is lower (old people draw down ASSETS BUTRISINGSOMEWHATMORESTEEPLY FROMIN TOIN 4HISMORNINGSPAPERSTOPNEWSISOFARESEARCHREPORTBY the Ministry of Labour, Health and Welfare which tests the effect of a number of suppositions on the future ‘replacement RATE IETHERATIOOFTHESTATEPENSIONTOMEDIANEARNINGSOF THEWORKINGPOPULATION*APANSISASTANDARDPAY AS YOUGO SYSTEMWHICHPAYSTODAYSPENSIONSOUTOFTHECONTRIBUTIONS OF TODAYS YOUNGER EARNERS )T HAS BUILT UP A LARGE PENSION FUND THEWORLDSLARGEST BECAUSEITWASSTARTEDINTHEHIGH growth period when there were armies of contributors but not very many pensioners. At present the replacement rate, i.e. the pension as a percentage of median earnings is at the extraordinarily high LEVELOFPERCENTMUCHHIGHERTHAN SAY THE5+WHERE IT HAS ONLY RARELY TOUCHED  PER CENT 4HE GOVERNMENT  For Japan HTTPGINI RESEARCHORGSYSTEMUPLOADSORIGINAL*APAN pdf?1370090592. For the United States HTTPGINI RESEARCHORGSYSTEMUPLOADSORIGINAL US.pdf?1370077377.

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has promised not to let it go below 50 per cent, and the REPORTSUMMARIZEDINTODAYSPAPERSLOOKSATEIGHTSCENARIOS which differ according to the degree of optimism about the MOVEMENTOFKEYVARIABLES4HOSEVARIABLESARE s s

s s

s

AISING THE PENSION AGE ALREADY INCREASED FROM  TO 2  The participation of women in the labour force which, if increasing means an increase in contributions. (Statistics actually show a secular decline in the overall (both sexes) PARTICIPATIONRATEFROMPERCENTINTOPERCENT today.) Reducing the automatic coverage of full-time housewives THROUGHTHEHUSBANDSCONTRIBUTIONS 7HILERETAININGTHEINmATIONINDEXING REDUCINGTHEPENsion by 1 per cent per annum. (The so-called ‘macroSLIDE INTRODUCED BY A LAW OF  BUT NEVER ACTUALLY implemented.) 2 EDUCING THE FUNDS INVESTMENTS IN LOW YIELDING *'"S PERCENTOFTHETOTAL ANDINVESTINGINEQUITIESANDREAL ESTATETOACHIEVEAPERCENTRETURN

The rate growth of the economy and income per capita

The report worked through eight scenarios making assumptions of varying degrees of optimism. Only the most improbably optimistic led to a replacement rate of 50 per cent. Some predicted as low as 37 per cent. But what impressed me was the fact that the contribution rate was not considered as a variable. I believe that those with the genetic luck to have been able to learn to DOCOMPLEXANDLUCRATIVEJOBSSHOULDTRANSFERSOMEOFTHEIR INCOME TO THOSE WHO CAN ONLY MANAGE TO GET LOUSY JOBS if any at all. A progressively graduated social security conTRIBUTION RATHERTHANAmAT RATECONTRIBUTIONWOULDSEEM

THE RETURN OF THE NEAR-NATIVE

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an obvious way to do that. Alternatively, if one wished to PRESERVETHENOTIONOFCITIZENEQUALITYIMPLICITINAmAT RATE CONTRIBUTION AND A lXED RATE PENSION THEN SUBSIDIZE THE pension fund out of more progressive income taxation. At present, social assistance, unemployment and other CONTINGENCY BENElTS BRING THE PRIMARY INCOME GINI OF PERCENTDOWNTOPERCENTFORDISPOSABLEINCOME BUT this is a smaller shift that in most countries. But a deliberate attempt to increase redistribution was, APPARENTLYTOJUDGEFROMTHENEWSPAPERREPORT NOTCONSIDered as a possibility. That is an indication of the extent to which collectivist social solidarity has been steadily eroded since its cramping intensity during the war. The individualism which is an essential base of neo-liberalism, has penETRATED QUITE DEEPLY IN THE YOUNGER GENERATIONS ! STRANGE irony, given the growing strength of the right wing, fostered by Abe, which seeks to take Japan back to the solidary thirties bolstered by a self-policed conformity. Individualism is AHOUSEWITHMANYMANSIONS FROMSELlSHGREEDTOTHEPRINCIPLEDCONSCIENCEWHICHSPEAKSOUTAGAINSTINJUSTICEWHENEVERITISENCOUNTERED$AVID2IESMANS@INNER DIRECTEDAS OPPOSEDTO@OTHER DIRECTEDPEOPLE5) Japanese individualism is closer to the former than to the latter. Supplementary note, 19 September 2014

4ODAYS &4 HAS A ROUND UP OF THE OPINIONS OF LEADING ECONOMISTS ON THE INEQUALITY QUESTION REPHRASED AS @WHY are wage incomes stagnating for 80 per cent of workers and rising only for the richest 20 per cent? Amazingly, there is a BLITHELADYFROM)LLINOISWHOSAYSITISALLBECAUSEOFINEFlCIENT 5

David Riesman, Nathan Glazer, Reuel Denney (2001), The lonely crowd: a study of the changing American character, Yale University Press, ISBN      (reprint of 1950 edition).

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CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

regulators hindering the working of a free labour market. But two contributions stand out. Stiglitz, with his usual good sense, arguing for a hefty increase in the legal minimum WAGEWHICHWILLLEADTOTRICKLE UPANDSOMEEQUALIZINGOF INCOMES THEREBYCURINGDEMANDDElCIENCY PLUSINVESTMENT incentives which do not, like those now in place, perversely encourage the further replacement of machines for manual labour, but are deliberately designed to encourage labourINTENSIVEINVESTMENTnEGINTHECARINGINDUSTRY Most of the run-of-the mill contributors trot out the old RECIPEOFBETTEREDUCATIONANDTRAININGASTHEANSWERTOlLLINGSKILLGAPS IGNORINGTHEWHOLEQUESTIONOFTHESHORTAGEOF learning abilities and assuming that anybody can learn anything and it is shortage of learning opportunities that is the sole problem. The only other sensible contributor is Guy Standing whose advocacy of Basic Income I have been writing in support of for the last twenty years. He acknowledges that brighter people earn scarcity premiums exacerbated by their FREQUENTABILITYTOSETTHEIROWNSALARIES(EACKNOWLEDGES THE INHERENT mAW IN THE @JUST CREATE LEARNING OPPORTUNITIESAPPROACHANDARGUESTHATTHEREISNOWAYOFGETTINGA MOREEQUALDISTRIBUTIONOFINCOMEWITHOUTREdistribution. But that the mode of redistribution needs rethinking. The ADMINISTRATIVELYCOSTLYPROLIFERATIONOFMEANS TESTEDBENElTS with their strong incentives for fraudulent dishonesty should BE AND EVENTUALLY WILL BE n BOTH AS A RESULT OF RATIONALITY ANDTHEFEAROFMOBVIOLENCE REPLACEDBYACITIZENSINCOME ADEQUATEFORBASICSUBSISTENCEPROVIDEDTOEVERYCITIZEN(E also argues that this will bring productivity gains as work INCENTIVESDEPENDMOREONTHEQUALITYOFTHEWORKEXPERIence than on the desperate struggle to get enough to eat. "ASIC)NCOMEHASBEEN'UYSLIFE EVERSINCEHEWORKEDIN THE),/(ETOOKUPTHE)TALIANCOINAGE@PRECARIATOMODELLEDON@PROLETARIATO ANDHASWRITTENABOOKWITHTHEWORD

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@PRECARIATINITSTITLE)TISAMEASUREOFHISFAILURETOMAKE much headway that a content analysis of a sample of newsPAPERSSHOWSARAPIDLYDECLININGUSEOFTHATTERMAFTERAlRST mURRYINWHENITHADTHEADVANTAGEOFNOVELTY 9 June The rainy season is upon us and the prediction is that this year it will be wetter, longer than for many years. The TEMPERATURE HOWEVER ISQUITEMILD!COMMONANDSOMEwhat incongruous sight is of demure young girls holding a big umbrella while dressed in the most skimpy shorts and a proVOCATIVE4 SHIRT3OMEINSCRIPTIONSCOLLECTEDTODAY@)CANT GETTOlRSTBASE @$ESSERT-ENU#HOCOLATE#REAM @4OKYO &ANTASTIC @&IRE%NGINEANDTHEMOSTSUBLIME @'RANDEUR 10 June My most indefatigable blog-mail correspondent brought her husband and three friends along for LUNCH /NE WAS A FOREIGN OFlCE MAN AT PRESENT SEConded to a senior post in the Ministry of Finance. What did he think of the Abe regime? ‘It should be stable for ATLEASTUNTILTHENEXTELECTIONINTWOYEARSTIME!BEHAS put an end to the habit of changing prime ministers every YEAR "UT )SAY STABILITYISNTEVERYTHING/NEOFTHOSEPRIME ministers took foreign policy in a new direction, greatly improving relations with China and soft-pedalling the US ALLIANCE@9ES THATISTRUE4HATWASADIFlCULTTIMEFORTHE &OREIGN-INISTRYWHICHISDOMINATEDBYPRO !MERICANS)TS much easier for them now when the Japanese public sees #HINAASANAGGRESSIVEENEMY I then take him through the grounds for saying that the BAD RELATIONS WITH #HINA ARE *APANS FAULT WHICH ) HAVE elaborated in greater detail in Chapter 3. The fact that for thirty-eight years Japan conscientiously observed the  AGREEMENT THAT THE QUESTION OF SOVEREIGNTY OVER the Senkaku Islands over which Japan had administrative



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

control should be left to ‘the wiser heads of later generaTIONS !LL MAVERICK ATTEMPTS TO LAND ON THEM AND PLANT A mAG WERE RAPIDLY SEEN OFF WHETHER THEY CAME FROM Hong Kong, Taiwan, or Japan itself. But the Noda government changed tack when challenged by the plan of super-maverick Ishihara, Governor of Tokyo Metropolis. He proposed to buy the barely habitable land on the islands, WHICH HAD BEEN UNDER CIVIL OWNERSHIP UNTIL  OFF A FAMILYWHICHRANAlSH DRYINGFACTORYANDLATERSOLDITONTO another nouveau-riche family. His idea was to incorporate it into the metropolis (never mind that it was a thousand kilometres from the closest part of the metropolis) and build a tourist resort. He could easily have been thwarted because the Japanese state, a few years back, had entered into a lease contract on the land with the owning family WITHACLAUSEWHICHREQUIREDITTOSELLTHELANDONLYTOPARties which would accept the same terms of the lease which gave the government total control of the use of the land. But, incomprehensibly, the Noda government resorted to a bill nationalizing the land, which the Chinese saw as an assertion of sovereignty and an abandonment of the SHELVING AGREEMENT 4HENCEFORWARD A FREEZING OF OFlCIAL relations and the failure of back-channel negotiations, UNDERSTANDABLE SINCE THE OFlCIAL CONSTANTLY REITERATED position of the Japanese government is (a) there is ‘no DISPUTE WITH #HINA OVER THE SOVEREIGNTY OF THE ISLANDS (b) there never was a shelving agreement. Chou En Lai expressed a unilateral wish, as later did Deng Hsiao Ping, BUT*APANNEVEROFlCIALLYEXPRESSEDAGREEMENT Mr Diplomat agreed that those were the facts of the case. But, he said, the Japanese public see the situation simply as overgrown and aggressive China trying to bully little Japan. And they are grateful for the backing they get from America, grudging though it seems to be, in standing up to the bully.

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It has to be said that the bulk of the Western media accept that same interpretation, but not the State Department which is scared of an accidental clash escalating into serious WARFAREANDWISHESTHE*APANESEWOULDQUIETENDOWN COLLECTIVE SELF-DEFENCE: A REVITALIZED OPPOSITION?

2 July)MUSTEXTENDTHISDIARYBECAUSE)HAVEJUSTREADSOME ENCOURAGINGNEWS4HEOPPOSITIONTO!BESBELLICOSEPOLICIES is still more alive and well than I had imagined. That does not mean that he will not be able to steam-roller his way through the opposition, but at least the opposition is articulate and its vehemence does something to dispel the gloom which has pervaded these notes 4HE ISSUE IS ONE OF SOME IMPORTANCE !BES PROPOSAL TO reinterpret the Constitution to give the government the @2IGHTTOENTER#OLLECTIVE$EFENCE!GREEMENTS !SISWELLKNOWN !RTICLEOFTHE*APANESECONSTItution says that Japan will never have armed land, sea or air FORCESANDTHATTHESTATESRIGHTOFBELLIGERENCYISDENIED4HE 3UPREME#OURT@REINTERPRETATIONOFTHISCLAUSELEGITImized the Jieitai THE3ELF$EFENCE&ORCEnTHELAND SEAAND air armed forces that had in fact been built up on the grounds that it was not the intention of the Constitution to leave Japan naked and unarmed, and the existence of these forces was perfectly legitimate, provided that they remained always within Japanese shores. That reinterpretation was somewhat extended after the bitter experience of the 1990 Gulf War, when Japan levied a special gasoline tax to support the UN action to disLODGE)RAQFROM+UWAIT)NFACTITCONTRIBUTEDMOREOFTHE total cost than did America itself, but got no thanks for it. In a New York Times FULL PAGE @4HANK YOU ADVERTISEMENT paid for by Kuwait there was no mention of Japan among



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

the countries thanked. This certainly rubbed in the imporTANCE THAT THE WORLD ATTACHES TO @BOOTS ON THE GROUND LED TO A mURRY OF MEDIA DISCUSSION ABOUT @*APANS INTERNATIONAL CONTRIBUTION AND SUBSEQUENTLY A FURTHER REINTERPRETAtion of the Constitution embodied in law. This allowed the Self-Defence forces to take part in UN peace-keeping operations. In 2003, that reinterpretation was further extended INANOTHERLAW THE)RAQ3PECIAL-EASURES,AW TOALLOW*APAN TOPARTICIPATEINTHE)RAQ7ARFOUGHTNOTDIRECTLYUNDER5. AUSPICESBUTBYA@COALITIONOFTHEWILLING!BOUTATHOUSAND MENOF*APANSLAND SEAANDAIRFORCES TOOKPARTFROM to 2009, predominantly in relatively safe logistics and patrol DUTIES AND ALSO IN DEVELOPMENT AID PROJECTS BUILDING AND EQUIPPINGSCHOOLS BUILDINGCLEANWATERSYSTEMS ETC All of these laws were passed with little controversy. I do not remember coming across reports of divisions within the Supreme Court which seems throughout to have acted as the GOVERNMENTSPOODLE "UT !BESPROPOSALTORUSHTHROUGHAFURTHERINTERPRETAtion of the Constitution that would allow Japan the ‘Right TOENTERA#OLLECTIVE3ELF $EFENCE!GREEMENTHASSPARKED intense controversy. The reinterpretation would mean strengthening the US*APAN !LLIANCE BY ALLOWING *APANESE ARMED FORCES TO lGHT alongside American forces overseas if America were attacked, Thus making reciprocal what is at present a unilateral commitment by America to defend Japan. !TlRSTSIGHTTHISMAYSEEMSTRANGE GIVENTHERECENTCOOLing of US-Japan relations, and the fact that Abe, unlike many members of his cabinet is not known as an America-lover, and was in fact humiliated by Obama when he went to Washington. He was given a couple of hours with the President WHICH WAS A GOOD DEAL LESS THAN THAT GIVEN TO #HINAS 8I ONASUBSEQUENTVISIT"UTITISPRECISELYTHISCOOLINGWHICH EXPLAINS!BESMOTIVES

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!MERICAS NUCLEAR UMBRELLA DOES NOT LOOK AS ROBUST AS IT ONCE DID /NE FACTOR IS !MERICAS GRUDGING SUPPORT FOR *APANSPOSITIONONTHE3ENKAKUISLANDS!NOTHERISTHEFACT THAT !MERICAS DISASTROUS INTERVENTIONS IN THE .EAR AND Middle East have evoked in the American public a marked antipathy to overseas military involvements and a return TO THE ISOLATIONISM OF THE S AND S /BAMAS @RED LINEDECISIONTOBOMB3YRIAFORITSUSEOFCHEMICALWEAPONS was deeply unpopular. It was with a huge sigh of relief that !MERICA GREETED ,AVROVS OVERNIGHT COUP IN GETTING 3YRIA to give up its chemical arsenal and thus provide Obama an excuse for calling off the bombers, though recent American statements do not acknowledge such a debt to the Russians, instead giving the impression that it was American pressure that led to surrender of the weapons. In actual fact, as Seymour Hersh has since revealed, it was British intelligence WHICHHADSAMPLESOFTHESARINGASIN!SSADSARSENAL ANDALSO OFSARINGASSECRETLYMANUFACTUREDBYONEOFTHEJIHADISTFACTIONSANDOFTHESARINGASUSEDINTHE3YRIANlGHTING WHICH told the Americans that it was the rebels, not Assad who had USEDTHEGASnASMIGHTBEEXPECTEDSINCE!SSADWASWINNING the war and had no reason to risk blotting his copy book. -OREOVER THERECENTMESSINTHE5KRAINE AND2USSIAS annexation of Crimea, has, on the one hand, demonstrated the waning of American hegemony as shown by the unwillINGNESS OF %UROPEANS TO FOLLOW !MERICAS LEAD OVER SANCtions. At the same time it has made the US-Russia Cold War THECENTREOF7ASHINGTONSATTENTION ANDPROMPTEDITTOPUT the US-China Cold War on hold in fact to warm up its relaTIONSWITH#HINA WHICHTHE*APANESESEEAS@*APANPASSING !BES@#OLLECTIVE3ELF$EFENCE THEREFORE ISANATTEMPTTO REINFORCE!MERICASBONDSWITH*APANANDINCREASEITSSENSE 

3EYMOUR (ERSH @4HE RED LINE AND THE RAT LINE London Review of Books  VIII !PRIL

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of obligation to keep its promise of a nuclear umbrella. It is, HOWEVER ASPRESENTEDBY!BE HEDGEDROUNDWITHEQUIVOCATIONS *APANESETROOPSWOULDONLYBEREQUIREDTOlGHTIF the attack on the United States involved a clear and present threat to the Japanese people. In his television explanation OFTHEPROPOSEDLAWSIMPLICATIONSHEGAVEASANILLUSTRATION AWARINTHE+OREANPENINSULAAN!MERICANWARSHIPGOES to evacuate Japanese nationals. The Japanese air force and submarines could be mobilized to protect that ship. Very LITTLEDANGER HESUGGESTED OFTHESACRIlCEOF*APANESELIVES PRESS REACTION

The cabinet decision to embody the collective defence principle in law was warmly welcomed by the Yomiuri which said that the extraordinary thing was not the new proposal, but the fact that it had taken so long to make it. ‘Hitherto Japan has been bound hand and foot and unable to give any support for the United States in its all-out efforts to bring peace ANDSTABILITYTO!SIA7 Three days later it is hammering the same message home WITHALEADERHEADED@!STEPTOWARDSCOMMONSENSEABOUT *APANSINTERNATIONALCONTRIBUTION Much the same message came from the Nihon Keizai Shinbun THE MOUTHPIECE OF THE BUREAUCRATIC AND lNANCIAL establishment, though in rather more measured and less pro-American terms. Its leading article on the day after the #ABINET DECISION IS HEADED @! MEANS OF ENHANCING OUR SECURITYBYMUTUALHELP)TBEGINSBYDWELLINGATLENGTHON THEDECLINEIN!MERICASlNANCIALANDMILITARYSTRENGTHAND its inability to continue its former role of world policeman. &INANCIALLY WHEREASTHE'PRODUCEDPERCENTOFWORLD '$0INTHEYEAR BYTHISHADFALLENTOPERCENT *ULY

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-ILITARILY THE 53 FAR OUTCLASSES #HINA BUT IN THIRTY YEARS TIME #HINAS DEFENCE BUDGET WILL PROBABLY BE LARGER THAN !MERICAS!MERICAHASALREADYLOSTITSDOMINANCEOFTHE%AST China and South China Seas. It is powerless to deter North +OREASNUCLEARAMBITIONS This being the case, the leader continues, something must lLL THE GAP *APAN 3OUTH +OREA )NDIA AND !USTRALIA MUST form a security network that, along with the United States, can deal with China and seek its cooperation. But the general aim of the Nikkei is to mention the issue as little as possible. By the afternoon of the 2nd, its website listed the news of the cabinet decision as the fourth item, after the news of the arrival in Japan of a rival to Starbucks coffee, the IPO of a pickle-maker, and another slant on the longrunning scandal of a fudged biochemical research paper, all no doubt items of extreme importance to its readers. Further support for Abe, as might be expected, came from the Sankei Shinbun. ‘The Coalition cabinet has leapt over a tall hurdle … Abe has done what decades of Liberal Democratic governments have failed to do…It is folly to close ONES EYES TO TODAYS DANGEROUS SECURITY ENVIRONMENT AND SIMPLYACCEPTTHATDETERRENTSHAVELOSTTHEIREFFECT Quite other was the reaction of the Asahi, Mainichi and Tokyo Shinbun. The Mainichi had banner headlines denouncing the plan already on the morning of the day when the cabinet was to take the decision, and even larger headlines the day after, together with an editorial which takes off from the centenary of the outbreak of the First World War. Japan, because it had a collective defence alliance with Britain, took part on the side of the Allies and annexed the German-held 3HANTUNGPENINSULA4HATWASTHESTARTOF*APANSIMPERIALISTICEXPANSIONWHICHLEDTOTHE0ACIlC7AR ‘Let us not risk the same thing again by seeking a “special relationship” with the United States. A special relationship was what Britain had with the United States, and that

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DRAGGED IT INTO THE DISASTER OF THE )RAQ 7AR THE RUINOUS CONSEQUENCES OF WHICH ARE EVEN NOW UNFOLDING A DECADE LATER "E WARNED
0UBLIC OPINION MUST STOP THIS LAW FROM GOINGTHROUGHTHE$IET The Tokyo Shimbun had even larger headlines at least in 130 point. ‘Uncertain and Ambiguous Brakes on the 2OADTO7AR3IMILARLYTHEAsahi returned to its one-time reputation as a left-leaning anti-establishment paper. Five days after the Cabinet decision8ITHASTHElFTHINSTALMENT of a series on the collective defence issue, with the headLINE @4HE IMPOSSIBLE NOTION OF A SECURITY SYSTEM WHICH SACRIlCES *APANESE CITIZENS ! RIGHT WING BLOGGER9 notes that ‘The Asahi has gone mad. Over the last controverSIALISSUE NAMELYTHE/FlCIAL3ECRETS!CT ITWASONLYTHE back-page Social Affairs section that muttered disagreement. This time the front pages political division has also GONEBERSERK The Asahi OF  *ULY ALSO REPORTS THE RESULTS OF A PUBLICOPINIONSURVEY4HOSEAPPROVINGOFTHEGOVERNMENTS DECISIONNUMBEREDPERCENT THOSEAGAINSTPERCENT But even assuming that that is a true measure of public opinion, there is little chance of that being translated into Diet voting power. The LDP has long-since maintained ITSMAJORITYBYADMITTINGTOTHEGOVERNMENTCOALITION THE Komeito, the political arm of the most successful of the post-war new religions, the Soka Gakkai. The Komeito has 31 members in the lower house and 20 in the upper. Although it occasionally recruits able candidates who are not members of the sect, almost all are loyal followers of *ULY 9UKAN &UJI :AK:!K ✺◚ࡍࡿ᪥ᮏࠚ㞟ᅋⓗ⮬⾨ᶒ࡟཯ᑐࡍࡿ ᮅ᪥᪂⪺ࡢ␗ᵝ࡞⣬㠃 HTTPWWWZAKZAKCOJPSOCIETYDOMESTICNEWS DMS NHTM

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the religion and are elected by the votes of loyal believers. Nearly half a million of these are subscription-paying members of the party, providing funds which supplement the 1.2 trillion yen the party receives from the public purse. The Soka Gakkai is rooted in the Buddhist tradition and has always presented itself as the party of peace and a guardian of the post-war Peace Constitution. It was therefore expected that the collective defence revision of that constitution would be too much for the party to swallow. But no. The Komeito cabinet members, after long negoTIATIONSWITH!BESMEN ACCEPTED!BESAMBIGUOUSLIMITAtions on the use of military force overseas, and agreed to support his legislation. A meeting of Diet members of the Komeito, at the beginning of July, produced lots of angry SPEECHESDENOUNCINGTHISmINGINGOFALLRELIGIOUSPRINCIPLES to the wind for the sake of political advantage, but ended with a resolution giving the party directorate full powers to take its own decision. They have obviously decided that a reputation as unprincipled turncoats is less important than the loss of revenue and power and prestige that would occur if they left government for the wilderness. !SFORTHECHIEFOPPOSITIONPARTY THE-INSHUTO WITH members in each House, it appears to be hopelessly split. 4HREE MEMBERS OF THE PARTY TOOK PART IN .(+S 3UNDAY MORNING POLITICAL DEBATE ON  *UNE 4WO OF THEM RANK AND lLE MEMBERS SPOKE QUITE STRONGLY AGAINST #OLLECTIVE Defence. The third, more senior one, known to be close to THE PARTYS STRONG MAN AND PRO !MERICAN HAWK -AEHARA WASMUCHMOREEQUIVOCALANDSAIDTHATTHEPARTYWOULDTAKE some time to decide its position. So, in conclusion, any euphoria which might be induced by the determined opposition of the Mainichi, the Asahi and the Tokyo Shinbun is likely to be short-lived. But let us be grateful even for a temporary lightening of the gloom.

22

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14 SEPTEMBER 2014

Today, I received the most welcome present, a book by a young man I recall meeting in Mexico, Tsurumi Taro, now professor at Waseda, thoughtfully in an envelope covEREDWITHSTAMPSJUSTASHISMOTHERUSEDTOSENDMEFORMY stamp-collector wife. The title is, Zadan no Shiso, and as far as I can make out, the thesis is that, as a literary genre, the zadankai (political discussion group reported verbatim in a NEWSPAPER OR JOURNAL HAS UNDERGONE A SIGNIlCANT ALTERAtion in the hundred years since the post-hoc reconstruction OF .AKAE #HOMINS FAMOUS PSEUDO zadankai, ୕㓉ே⤒⥟ ၥ⟅ (Three drunks discuss economics) of 1887. I have no doubt it has, but after browsing through the book, I am not QUITESUREWHATITISTRYINGTOASSERT4OWARDSTHEENDTHERE seems to be a thesis that the experience of war and defeat led TOANINCREASEDEMPHASISON@SINCERITY ANDTHATTHISMARKS the difference between pre-war and post-war zadankai. There are two things about this book which astonish me. Here is the son, of one of the most famous thinkers of the twentieth century, Tsurumi Shunsuke, somebody who could always be relied on to enliven any zadankai with some over-the-top assertion, writing a whole book about zadankai, without mentioning his father. What kind of enryo DIFlDENCE ISTHAT 4HEOTHERASTONISHINGTHINGISTHATHEDOESNTMENTIONTHE virtual death of the rondan which has taken place over the last thirty years. There was a time when every newspaper had a Rondann Jihyou, summarizing the arguments of the titans in Sekai, Chuou Koron, Voice etc., etc. Now, people have seemed to have lost their taste for controversy. Bland indifferent consensus prevails. When I once complained about the fact that Japan was becoming a totalitarian society, and I was challenged to provide evidence, Kenneth Courtis kindly provided it for me on THE53 *APANDISCUSSIONFORUM

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4OTALITARIAN QUASI TOTALITARIAN OR SOMETHING ELSE WE CAN debate, and in this Forum of keen Japan watchers, we should debate. But what do we know? What we do know is that former PM, and now deputy PM and Finance Minister in the Abe-Aso government, in a speech earlier this year, urged the sizeable, far right, revanchist nationalist faction of the LDP cadres to learn from the Nazis during Weimar about how to change a constitution when no one is looking. For in effect, that is what the AbeAso government has to do so as they have neither the votes, nor the public opinion support to amend formally the constitution. Surely all of the members of this Forum will remember this episode. We do know that several members of the group immediATELYCLOSETOTHE!BE !SOGOVERNMENTARETHEEQUIVALENTOF (OLOCAUSTDENIERS CFTHE2APEOF.ANKINGNEVERHAPPENED cf. the Rape of Nanking is an invention of the Americans, WHICHTHEYUSEDTOJUSTIFYTHE4OKYO3HOWTHEYDONOTUSE the words War Crimes, as for them there were no crimes) Trials. We do know that the Abe-Aso government, their key ministers, and militants insist on paying homage at the shrine, WITHITSHIDEOUSMUSEUMGLORIFYING*APANSWARAGAINSTTHE !SIA0ACIlC WHERESOULSOFTHE7AR#RIMINALSANDTHOSEOF their ilk are entombed. We do know how the Abe-Aso regime has taken increasing control of the media, cf. NHK. We do know that the Abe-Aso regime has remained silent as the extreme right nationalist media has spewed out hate speech vs Koreans and Chinese. We do know that during the last election campaign, the Prime Minister, with obvious glee, hopped into the COCKPIT OF A JET lGHTER WITH THE HORRID INSIGNIA NUMBER 731 splashed across the plane.

23



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

@7E DIDNT NOTICE ) BELIEVE WAS THE lRST RESPONSE OF HIS PRESS HANDLERS WHEN THE ISSUE WAS SUBSEQUENTLY RAISED AND THENTHENEXTDAY@7ELL ITWASACOINCIDENCE We do know that the Abe-Aso regime continues to put into place strong, anti-working class policies, cf. policies which most predictably have led to a drop in real income of salaried workers and employees, and that more is on the way, cf. makINGITEASIERTOlREWORKERSANDTOREDUCESOCIALBENElTS We do know that the Aso-Abe regime has worked assiduously in ways which both Korea and China have found deeply offensive and provocative. We do know that the Abe-Aso regime is engaged in a systematic effort to place revanchist nationalists in key positions, cf. as in the Home Affairs constitutional bureau, which provides interpretations of the constitution. We do now that the Abe-Aso regime has imposed a state SECRECY LAW OPPOSED BY A STRONG MAJORITY OF PUBLIC OPINion, and which, as many have observed, echoes some of the aspects of similar legislation from the early 1930s. We know that the Abe-Aso regime has endorsed whiteWASHINGSTILLFURTHER*APANSHISTORYASITISLADLEDOUTTOPRImary and secondary students, and at the same time imposing an increasingly nationalistic curriculum... 7EDOKNOWTHATDESPITETHEVASTGOVERNMENTDElCIT THE Abe-Aso regime has engaged in a sharp increase in spending on the military and on armaments, at the same time as it re-interpreting (see above) the constitution so that Japan can become ASIGNIlCANTARMSEXPORTER ANDINTERNATIONALMILITARYPLAYER We do know that the Abe-Aso regime has another two years of complete control of both houses of parliament, and THAT WE SHOULD EXPECT STILL MORE SIGNIlCANT MOVES IN THE broad direction of the above. In addition, we also know that the Abe-Aso LDP regime can, in a crunch, count on the even more ultra-national-

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25

ISTFARRIGHTPARTIES SUCH)SHIHARAS.EW'ENERATIONS0ARTY (ASHIMOTOS2ESTORATION0ARTY ANDSOON Where does that put Japan in terms of what Professor Dore has set out. That is something that I think we should debate thoroughly in this Forum, as the radical break from the past almost seven decades of Japanese government policy which the Abe-Aso regime is making, will have a decisive IMPACTON!SIA 0ACIlCRELATIONSFORYEARSTOCOME

Where is it all going to end? The Japanese hawks, encouraged by their Pentagon friends, are digging themselves deeper and DEEPERINTHEIR@HATE#HINA LOVE!MERICAHOLE4HEYMAY lNDTEMPORARYENCOURAGEMENT NOWTHATTHEYARENOLONGER expected to embrace Russia in order to contain China, because the Americans have got themselves into a mess by hotting up the anti-Russia cold war and putting the anti#HINACOLDWARONHOLD"UTMEANWHILETHEYDONTSEEMTO be making good friends in Washington either. The Komeito has found a bit of backbone and is attaching all kinds of conDITIONSTO!BES#OLLECTIVE$EFENCEPROPOSAL TOTHEEXTENT that Americans accuse him of disloyally prevaricating. 22 SEPTEMBER 2014

Another fascinating item in the post, the 105th issue of the JOURNALZinbun Gakuho BETRAYINGITSORIGINSINANTIQUITYBY its use of nipponsiki rather than Hepburn romanization. It is a wonderful example of the human propensity to refrain from killing off institutions which have outlived their usefulNESS NOTAUNIQUELY*APANESECHARACTERISTIC TOBESUREnBUT one particularly pronounced in the world of the Japanese intellect. )N  AT THE TIME OF THE lRST ISSUE WHAT BECAME the Institute was a modest China study group funded by THE &OREIGN /FlCE FOR OBVIOUS STRATEGIC REASONS ,ATER



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

after the war it was amalgamated with a variety of other SPECIALISTRESEARCHGROUPS ANDINTRANSFERREDFROM&OREIGN/FlCETO-INISTRYOF%DUCATIONFUNDING"YTHENEXT YEARITHADADISPERSEDSTAFFOFSOMETWENTY lVEPROFESSORS and nineteen assistants. It was given or its members chose to adopt, something of the role of a European Academy, replacing the by then moribund Gakushiin (Japan Academy) founded by Fukuzawa Yukichi in 1879, and providing leisure time to full-time researchers with minimal teaching obligations. ) HAVE BEENONTHEMAILINGLISTSINCEWHEN)WAS privileged to spend three months there (in its original 1930 building which I learn from Wikipedia was a notable piece OF 3PANISH 2OMANESQUE ARCHITECTURE  ) WAS WORKING mostly in the Kyoto University Library, on the history of education in the Edo period, but it was a real privilege TO BE ABLE TO HOBNOB AT THE KENKYUJO AND ATTEND ITS LECtures and seminars, riding my scooter between our rented apartment on the edge of Sagano, the university and the Institute. Kuwabara Takeo, a lively and extravert thinker, the very epitome of the post-war shinpoteki bunkajin (proGRESSIVE INTELLECTUAL WAS THERE AND A FREQUENT PRESENCE AT seminars. (He later became the Director.) I attended religiously a course of lectures on Japanese history by Hayashi Tatsusaburo. It was a truly stimulating experience. Now, what is still called The Institute for Research in Humanities, has grown by leaps and bounds. It has twelve distinct research groups, PLUSALISTOFlFTYINDIVIDUALRESEARCHTOPICS .ATURALLY THE RANGE OF SCHOLARLY JOURNALS IN WHICH THE )NSTITUTESMEMBERSPUBLISHISENORMOUS/NEIMAGINESTHAT its members all prefer to appear in specialist magazines, yet THE HOUSEJOURNAL Zinbun Gakuho carries on, regularly published with English abstracts in March each year. The website has a meticulously detailed set of guidelines for submissions

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27

to it, and a committee to safeguard them. One imagines, however, that the members of the committee have to do more work in soliciting contributions than in vetting those voluntarily submitted. 4HATSUPPOSITIONISBASEDlRSTONTHEAPRIORIGROUNDSTHAT FEWPEOPLEWOULDPREFERTOPUBLISHINAHOUSEJOURNALWHEN the alternative is a specialist magazine in which they can ADDRESSANAUDIENCEOFFELLOWWORKERSINTHEIROWNlELDS Secondly it is based on my sampling of the latest issue which HASJUSTBEENPUBLISHED )lRSTTURNEDTOTHEONEARTICLEWHICHPROMISEDEMPIRICAL sociology, ‘Korean labourers in Modern Era Matsugasaki, 2AKUHOKU!REA4HEAREAISFAMOUSASONEOFTHEMOUNTAINS WHERETHElRESTHATARELITATTHEENDOFTHE"ONFESTIVALTO give ancestral spirits a good send-off are arranged to form a character, in this case the myou ጁ㸧 of the nearby temple -YOUSHINJI&ORMERLYUNINHABITEDEXCEPTFORTHEEXTENSIVE temple grounds, in the 1920s it saw a geat deal of building WORK INCLUDINGALARGEDAMONTHEWATERSHEDWHICHlLLED up at night and emptied during the day, a new factory built by Kanebo, a Technical College, and the operation of a new gravel pit. The author has meticulously documented the fact that the manual labour needed was recruited partly from nearby burakumin (people from villages formerly known as outcast villages, whose inhabitants sill carried a stigma in spite OF EARLY -EIJI DECLARATIONS OF TOTAL EQUALITY AND PARTLY BY importing labourers from Korea. He provides numbers for THE TWO GROUPS PRESENCE IN VARIOUS OF THE PROJECTS GIVES TWOINSTANCESOFCOURTCASESRESULTINGFROMlSTICUFFSBETWEEN members of the two groups, derives from another court case estimates of what was paid to labour bosses (of either group), craftsmen and the bossed labour. Then, without any analysis of the structure of relationships between the two groups, their stereotypical images of each other, or anything else, he LAMELYCONCLUDES

28

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

It is customary to think of the areas occupied by the Korean minority as being the areas to the west and south of Kyoto AROUND(IGASHI+YUJO"UT;AS)HAVESHOWN=THEYFORMEDTHE workforce in many other areas where few Koreans were living. I think that these instances should be known and acknowledged in the lessons on local history which form part of school modern history courses. It is necessary therefore to collect more instances of Korean labour both in districts where there were many and where there were few Koreans living. I consider this my future task.

If that was an example of the feeble, the next article I turned TOWASANEXAMPLEOFTHESOMEWHATBAFmING)TISABOUTTHE DISCUSSIONSn LEADINGUPTOTHECELEBRATIONOFTHE HUNDREDTHANNIVERSARYOFTHE-EIJI2ESTORATION!STARTING point is the declarations of my much admired Kuwabara 4AKEO+UWABARAHADNODIFlCULTYINREMAININGAREPRESENTative proponent of post-war democracy and denouncer of the military regime of the 1930s, and at the same time declarINGTHATTHE-EIJI2ESTORATIONWASAGREATEVENTIN*APANESE HISTORY THAT ALL *APANESE COULD FEEL PROUD OF n PRIDE IN THE fact that it was the result of a determined effort both to fend off European colonization and also realistically to learn from Europe institutional arrangements which could improve the EFlCIENCYOFTHENEWGOVERNMENTANDTHEEDUCATEDLOYALTY of its people. One axis of the paper is the difference between people LIKE+UWABARAANDTHOSEWHOFEAREDTHATPRAISINGTHE-EIJI 2ESTORATIONMEANT@ENDORSING-EIJIATTHEEXPENSEOFREJECTINGTHEDEMOCRATIZATIONOFTHETWENTYPOST WARYEARSnASSO many of the newspaper symposia put it ᫂἞ⓒᖺ࠿ᡓᚋ஧ ༑ᖺ࠿ ! (UNDRED 9EARS OF -EIJI OR THE 4WENTY 0OST WAR9EARS 4HEREPRESENTATIVElGUREOFANINTELLECTUALWHO ANGUISHEDOVERTHISQUESTIONIS4AKEUCHI9OSHIMI PROMOTER OFMANYJOURNALISTICANDSCHOLARLYSYMPOSIAATTHETIME

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A second axis is the distinction between scholarly pursuit OFTRUTH ANDPOPULAROPINIONASEXPRESSEDINCURRENTJOURNALism. Takeuchi was, according to the author, more concerned with scholarly purity than Kuwabara much of whose writing assumes a non-scholarly audience, but this complex discussion seems to conclude that scholarship and the ‘climate of OPINION ARE INEVITABLY INTERTWINED BOTH NEEDING THE HELP OF ANDBEINGSUBJECTTOTHEINmUENCEOF THEOTHER4AKEUCHI recognizes this but (ERE WE SEE THE SQUIRMING ANGUISH OF A MAN WHO WHILE RECOGNIZING THAT THE @-EIJI 2ESTORATION IS PART OF THE WAY WEDElNEOURSELVES NEVERTHELESSSEEKSTORELATIVIZEITSBINDing ties.

whatever that may mean. (ISlNALCONCLUSION AFTERREITERATINGTHEINTERTWININGTHESISISWHATLOGICIANSCALL@ESSENTIALIST So, accepting the premise that this intertwining is part of the SOCIALSTRUCTURE WEARELEFTWITHTHEQUESTIONOFWHATEXACTLY WASTHETIME SPACECALLEDTHE@-EIJI2ESTORATION)TISTOTHE CONCRETEANALYSISOFTHATQUESTIONWHICHSHALLBETHETHEME of my next paper.

There is one other part of my doubts about this paper. In his ELABORATIONOFTHEHUUNDREDYEARSOF-EIJIVERSUSTHETWENTY post-war years, he spells out the fears of some democrats that THE-EIJI ISTSARETRYINGTORESTOREPATRIOTISM BYWHITE WASHING*APANESEHISTORY(EISWRITINGIN WHENTHEWHITE wash is complete. In the twenty post-war years there was a general consensus that it was a Good Thing that Japan lost the war, and he is tracing the early cracks in that consensus. )N!BES*APANTHEDEFEATOFHASBECOMEAGREATTRAGEDY

30

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AFAILUREOF*APANSNOBLEENDEAVOURTOLIBERATE!SIAFROMTHE WHITEMANSCOLONIALISM)TISEXTRAORDINARYTHATHEDOESNOT MENTIONnORDOESHENOTSEEnTHATWHATHEISDESCRIBINGARE the beginnings of a powerful secular trend. 3O ONFROMTHESOMEWHATBAFmINGTOTHETOTALLYBAFmING) NEXTTURNEDTO+ITAMURA.AOKOS ࣮ࣘࢺࣆ࢔᪑⾜グ࡟࠾ ࡅࡿᅛ᭷ྡ࡜どⅬே≀ (Personal names and the observing individual in Utopian travel writing). This is an extremely learned article, full of references to other analyses of Utopian WRITING BUT PERHAPS IT IS MY FAULT ) lND MUCH OF IT FAR too learned for me to comprehend. I have read several times her page 37 which offers to draw meaningful distinctions between four concepts fables, parables (which she or her ediTORSPELLS@PARABOLE THIRDLY@TYPOLOGICALINTERPRETATIONSAND FOURTHLYALLEGORIES@4YPOLOGICALINTERPRETATIONSISA'ERMAN word which confounds, as she fails to explain, the notion of @READINGTHE/LD4ESTAMENTASAPROPHESYOF#HRISTSCOMINGAND@READINGTHE/LD4ESTAMENTASFORESHADOWINGFUTURE PATTERNSFOREXAMPLETHERELATIONOF!BRAHAMAND)SAACASA paradigm of the relation of the Father and the Son among the trinity, or the relation between God and Man ‘created INHISOWNIMAGE ORTRICKYTHISONE -OSESMAKINGABRASS serpent and the liberation from Egypt. I have to admit that I gave up at that point, and was not REASSUREDBYJUMPINGTOHERCONCLUSION The unspoken assumptions underlying descriptions of alien SOCIETIES REmECT INVERSELY HOW THE IMAGINATION PERCEIVES the nature of the actual society to be. Hence, to analyse the unspoken assumptions of a text serves also to analyse its essence as communication (reportage). When we do this we SEE HOW THE GENRE OF @IMAGINED TRAVELOGUES WHICH mOURished in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, before the advent of modern realism, was an extremely suggestive genre, not only in terms of ideas, but also of form.

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I do not think I will sample any more of this 105th issue of Zinbun Gakuho, but I do wonder why it continues to be published. 27 SEPTEMBER 2014 THE CHINA DOG THAT DIDN’T BARK

One can always rely on getting good insights from the Tohon Seiso analysis of Japanese politics in the Ekonomisto magazine. (Tohon Seiso is a pun on a common four-character phrase MEANINGFRANTIC@$ASHINGTOTHEEASTANDRUNNINGTOTHELEFT It substitutes another character for the Sei to make it mean NOT7ESTBUT@RUNNINGINTOPOLITICS )TS ANALYSIS IN THE  3EPTEMBER ISSUE IS DEVOTED TO THE long-standing and bitter personal enmity between two politicians generally acknowledged to be Omono, i.e. people of strong personality, capable of being prime minister, namely THE0RIME-INISTER!BE3HINZOANDTHE+ANJICHO,$00ARTY Secretary and Chief Cabinet Secretary), Ishiba Shigeru. Their rivalry goes back at least seven years, when Abe lost the Upper House election, partly because Ishiba failed to support him. But, when Abe became LDP Secretary General and formed his team to take over the government to succeed Noda in 2012, he really had no option but to appoint Ishiba TOTHEKANJICHOPOST THESECONDMOSTPOWERFULINBOTHPARTY and government, however much they were at odds. He had TOOBEYTHETRADITIONGOINGBACKAQUARTEROFACENTURYTHAT THETWOPOSTSOFPRIMEMINISTERANDKANJICHOSHOULDNEVERBE held by members of the same LDP faction. )SHIBAHADlLLEDTHEPOSTCONlDENTLYANDEFlCIENTLY ORGAnizing LDP victories in the elections of 2012 and 2013, and building up a position which seemed likely to win him the LDP Secretary General election, and thus the Prime Ministership, in 2015. Abe, who has ambitions to stay in power DECIDEDTOTHWARTHIM RESHUFmINGHISCABINETANDSENIORPARTY

32

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POSTS AND MOVING )SHIBA FROM HIS POWER BASE AS KANJICHO to a new post of Minister with special responsibility for territorial disputes, an albatross of a ministry if there ever was one. It was well known that Ishiba was insisting on staying INTHEKANJICHOPOST%ITHERTHAT ORHEWOULDREFUSETOBE part of the government and redouble his opposition from the wilderness. But in this battle of wills, Abe held the best cards. Finally, Ishiba, apparently calculating that his 2015 chances were better inside than outside the government, agreed to take the new post. This was generally hailed as a victory for Abe. But the future development of the rivalry will be greatly INmUENCEDBYACLEARDIFFERENCEINPOLICYBETWEENTHETWO MEN ! MAJOR CHARACTERISTIC OF THE !BE GOVERNMENT IS ITS @NOSTALGIC NATIONALISM )N THE TWENTY YEARS AFTER THE 3ECond World War there had been a consensus that it was a good thing that Japan lost the war, thereby repudiating its PRE  MILITARISM AND BECOMING A DEMOCRATIC COUNTRY 4HATCONSENSUSSTARTEDTOCRUMBLEINTHES BUTSTILLHAD some life in it after the independent nationalist directors of the shrine added the tablets of the six men who had been hung as war criminals to those who were to be worshipped/ REMEMBERED AS @PEOPLE WHO HAD DIED FOR THE %MPEROR 4HE ORIGINAL DElNITION OF ITS PURPOSE WHEN IT WAS CREATEDINANDRENAMED9ASUKUNIIN IRONICALLYTHUS excluding one of the great tragic nationalist heroes of Japan, Saigo Takamori who had been killed in a rebellion against THE@WICKEDADVISORSWHOCONTROLLEDTHE%MPEROR )T WAS THE FRAGILE REMAINS OF THAT PACIlST CONSENSUS THAT prompted the Emperor to cease his periodic visits to the shrine after 1979, an abstention which his present successor had followed. Under Abe, that consensus has been totally abandoned. The defeat was a great tragedy which unfortunately befell Japan before it had managed to accomplish its noble ambition

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of rescuing Asia from its dominance by colonial white men. Abe has been known to refer to those six men, not as war CRIMINALSBUTAS@-ARTYRSFOR*APAN7HEREAS+OIZUMICONsistently visited the shrine when he was prime minister, CHIEmYINORDERTOEMPHASIZEHISREFUSALTOACCEPT#HINESE AND+OREAN@INTERFERENCE !BEDOESITOUTOFDEEP*APANIST conviction. And this is the source of considerable friction between Abe and Washington. He was presumably persuaded to declare himself in favour of a revision of the Constitution AND JOINING A #OLLECTIVE 3ELF $EFENCE !GREEMENT BECAUSE HE WAS PERSUADED THAT IT WOULD SHIFT THE EXISTING DEAL n *APANSHUMILIATINGDEPENDENCYFORITSSECURITYON!MERICAS PROTECTIONINRETURNFOR!MERICANBASESnINTOAMUCHMORE HONOURABLEEQUALPARTNERSHIP"UTTHERESERVATIONSTHATTHE Komeito insisted on adding to the cabinet decision to go for collective self-defence have so diluted the practical effect of the measure that it has led to more, rather than less friction with Washington. 3EE PAGES n FOR MY SURPRISED ACCOUNT OF THE CLARity and vociferousness of the anger invoked in the Asahi, Mainichi and Tokyo Shinbun in their reaction to that Cabinet decision to change the Constitution and legislate the right TOJOIN!MERICAINA#OLLECTIVE3ELF $EFENCEARRANGEMENT .OW)HAVEBEENEQUALLYSURPRISEDTOLOOKUPANDREADTHE whole document, the Cabinet Decision published on 1 July which set off that hostile reaction. It is a convoluted piece of prose, seven thousand characters long, in the course of which the term ‘Collective Self $EFENCEOCCURSONLYONCE ASPARTOFTHETITLEOFAPAPERON its relation to Article 9 which was presented by the governMENTATTHETIMEOFTHElRSTMAJORDILUTIONOF!RTICLEIN 1972. -OST OF THIS *ULY  #ABINET $ECISION IS DEVOTED TO DESCRIBING THE PACIlST ATTITUDES WHICH HAVE LED TO *APANS



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

rearming only for self-defence and its participation in UN peacekeeping activities. The adoption of CDS is signalled by the following paragraph. Given these perceptions of our situation, and after careful research, our armed forces can use their weapons abroad, not only when there is direct aggression against our country, but also when an attack is made on a country with which we have close relations, as a result of which the existence of our own country is threatened and there is a clear danger that the lives of our people, their freedom and their right to pursue happiness might be destroyed. In such circumstances, when there is no other way to combat this threat, secure the existence of our country and defend its people, to use the minimum necESSARYARMEDFORCE;TOASSISTTHATCOUNTRY=ISCONSISTENTWITH THERIGHTOFSELF DEFENCEASDElNEDINTHEBASICLOGICOFTHE *APANESE GOVERNMENTS POSITION HITHERTO AND HENCE SHOULD be deemed as permitted by the Constitution.

Whereas the initial hostile reactions emphasized the assumpTIONOF#$3OBLIGATIONS SUBSEQUENTDISCUSSIONS PARTICULARLY grass roots revolts in the Komeito against the initial complaisance of its leadership have given greater prominence to all the conditions with which it was hedged around. ‘We will help America, but only when an attack on America THREATENSUSTOO 3O !BESUNREPENTANTNATIONALISMABOUTTHEPAST ANDHIS @DRIVEFORPARITYOFESTEEMWITH!MERICANATIONALISMMAKE STRANGEBEDFELLOWS ACONTRADICTIONTHATISONECONSEQUENCE of the fact that he needs the Komeito coalition to retain a MAJORITYINBOTHHOUSESOF0ARLIAMENT How, if ever, Abe manages to sort that out in legislation that has a chance of getting through Parliament, is closely related to his rivalry with Ishiba, for Ishiba takes an entirely different view.

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35

Ishiba is a realist who cares little about unrepentant nationalism. He does not take the post-war view that it was AGOODTHINGTHAT*APANLOSTTHEWAR)NSTEADHEARGUES@7E LOSTTHEWAR,ETSTAKEITINOURSTRIDE4HEREISNOPOINT in arguing that it was a good thing or a tragedy. It happened. Japan realistically has no alternative but to ally itself CLOSELYWITHTHE533OGETONWITHLEGISLATINGANUNQUALIlED#$3 4HISISGENERALLYDISCUSSEDIN*APANASA@SPLITOVERTHEQUESTIONOF@HISTORICALCONSCIOUSNESSrekishi ninshiki THEQUESTIONWHICHDOMINATES*APANSRELATIONWITH3OUTH+OREAAND #HINA ESPECIALLYSINCE!BESVISITTOTHE9ASUKUNISHRINETO PAYRESPECTTOHIS@MARTYRSIN$ECEMBER The article in the Ekonomisuto which prompted this comMENTANDWHOSEANALYSIS)HAVEQUOTEDABOVE POINTSOUTTHAT this naturally makes Ishiba a blue-eyed boy in Washington, especially in the Pentagon where he has close contacts, and is the reason why the Obama administration gives Abe the cold shoulder. But there is one gap in its analysis. It does not mention China. Ishiba, naturally, siding whole-heartedly with the US in the US-China Cold War, has every reason for reinforcing popular anti-China sentiment in Japan. Abe, on the other hand, might have wanted to leave an opening for repairing relations with the Asian countries, given the fraying of its RELATIONS WITH #HINA "UT IN FACT !BE HAS BEEN THE MAJOR FOMENTEROFANTI #HINESESENTIMENT lRSTININHERITINGFROM .ODA AND ENTHUSIASTICALLY REINFORCING *APANS CLAIM TO SOVereignty over the Senkaku Islands while accusing China of AGGRESSION ANDLATTERLYOVERHIS@HISTORICALCONSCIOUSNESS &ORTHEMOMENTANTI #HINESESENTIMENTIN*APANIS@PURE CONlDENTRACISM NOTMUCHADMIXEDWITHfear because the general assumption in both Japan and China is that if there were all-out conventional war between the two countries TOMORROW *APANSSUPERIORlRE POWERISSUCHTHATITMIGHT



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

well win, and China would never resort to nuclear weapons for fear of American retaliation. )N lFTEEN TO TWENTY YEARS TIME HOWEVER PERHAPS WHILE the Abe-Ishiba rivalry, or at least the rivalry of their respective successors, is still playing out, the situation will be very different. It will be China, not Japan or America which domINATESTHE7ESTERN0ACIlC *APANANDNOT#HINAWHICHFEELS itself to be vulnerable. )lNDITHARDTOUNDERSTANDHOW*APANESEPOLITICSCANBESO short-termist that such a prospect plays little part in political rivalries, nor in media comment on those rivalries.

Chapter 2

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR %#/./-)#0%2&/2-!.#% AND THE PIKETTY BOOM10

y This chapter isORGANIZEDINTWOPARTSTHElRSTDISCUSSESTHE goals of economic policy, contrasting what I call ‘Economic 0ERFORMANCE%0 AND@%CONOMIC0ERFORMANCE%0  The second part addresses what one might call the Piketty boom, about the mechanisms which produce increasing INEQUALITY ANDSUGGESTSTHAT0IKETTYSEMPHASISONWEALTHDIStribution and its increasing concentration distracts attention FROMTHEMOREIMPORTANTANDINELUCTABLEQUESTIONOFINCOME distribution, increasingly skewed by technological change, THE TRANSFORMATION OF SKILL ACQUIRING MECHANISMS NEEDED TO cope with that change, and the (normal curve) distribution of LEARNINGABILITYWHICHCONSTRAINSTHATSKILL ACQUIRINGPROCESS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: EP1 AND EP2

@0ERFORMANCEISASTRANGEWORD OR@PAAFUWAMANSUWHICHIS the form in which I encounter it most these days in the writings 10

A shorter version of this chapter was published in Stato e Mercato,  I

38

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

of Japanese who are obsessed with it. Past performance is the rating given to horses before a race, and indeed many ECONOMISTSUSETHEWORD@ECONOMICPERFORMANCETOMEAN the ability of countries to score high in the growth-rate STAKES ANDTOACQUIREFOREIGNEXCHANGERESERVESBYEXPORTING more than it imports. By that criterion German economic performance is outstanding. So much so that Brussels has CONDEMNED IT FOR BEGGARING ITS NEIGHBOURS BY RUNNING A  per cent current account surplus. A synonym for economic performance in this sense is competitiveness. ,ET US CALL THAT %0 ) PREFER AS A POLICY OBJECTIVE WHAT I shall call EP2, namely achieving enough of a growth rate such that, with a decent distribution of income and low unemployment, most of the population can look forward to the future as likely to be better than the past. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS OF BOTH EP1 AND EP2

Before getting on to my main theme of the social conditions for EP2, a word about the economic conditions for both EP1 and EP2, one of which I now believe to be having control over the currency your economy uses. I write that in shame as one who was always critical of the way Britain dragged its feet and refused to commit to entering the eurozone. I now repent. Giving a group of highly disparate economies a single currency has now been shown to be the disaster that some predicted. The idea at the basis of the so-called Taylor rule11 namely that of the THREE VARIABLES INTEREST RATE INmATION RATE AND EXCHANGE rate, the government of a given economy can only control TWO HASSHOWNITSRELEVANCE4HE53DEJUREAND'ERMANY 4AYLOR *OHN"  @$ISCRETION6ERSUS0OLICY2ULESIN0RACTICE  Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy  PPn

11

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

39

DEFACTO WHOCONTROLTHEIRINmATIONRATEANDINTERESTRATE can happily accept the exchange rate the rest of the world gives them. But the weaker economies of the eurozone have to accept both the interest rate that Germany allows the European Bank to give them and the exchange rate THAT'ERMANYSTRADEPERFORMANCEDICTATES'ERMANEXPORT performance has kept the euro exchange rate so high that the less competitive countries cannot export. Greece should clearly have gone back to the drachma two years ago, let its value sink and get back to some kind of prosperity with A mOURISHING TOURIST TRADE 0ORTUGAL 3PAIN AND )RELAND should have followed suit. If they had done so, rather than accept Brussels/Berlin austerity as the price for niggardly life support, Spain would not today have 50 per cent of its YOUTHUNEMPLOYED.ATIONALPRIDEnTHEDESIRENOTTOBEA DROP OUTANDNOTTOBECONSIDEREDASECOND RATENATIONn should never be allowed to trump sensible economics. One other point before I get to social conditions. Wildly varying resource endowments make nonsense of any attempt to give universal prescriptions for either EP1 or EP2. A Saudi Arabia does not need the sort of measures that Japan or Sweden have to take to raise income per head. America with its vast land and mineral resources, and now fracking oil energy, can afford to spend fabulous sums on keeping a dozen AIRCRAFTCARRIERmEETSAROUNDTHEWORLDTOASSERTITSHEGEMONY Nobody else can harbour the same ambitions, though the Chinese will in a couple of decades. Population size also counts. Economic policy for 1.3 billion Chinese is a bit more COMPLICATEDTHANTHATNEEDEDFOR.ORWAYSlVEMILLION SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR EP1

Very roughly speaking there are two rival prescriptions. 4HE lRST FREQUENTLY REFERRED TO AS THE DEVELOPMENTAL STATE PRESCRIPTIONREQUIRES



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

LEVEL OF TAXATION SUFlCIENT TO PROVIDE PUBLIC ! expenditure on physical infrastructure, education AND HEALTH EQUIVALENT TO AT LEAST n PER CENT OF GDP. 2. An elite civil service (elite = brainy and morally COMMITTED TO PUBLIC SERVICE SUFlCIENTLY INDEPENDENT (appointments and promotions insulated from political party control) to share decision-making power with ministers. 3. 3UFlCIENT KNOWLEDGE OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THATCIVILSERVICE TO@PICKWINNERSIEPROVIDESUBSIDIES FOR THE PROMOTION OF THOSE @INFANT INDUSTRIES IN WHICH PROSPECTIVERATESOFRETURNARENOTSUFlCIENTLYCERTAINTO attract private investment.  !N INmATION RATE OF n PER CENT TO STIMULATE PRIVATE investment 5. ! POPULATION WITH A SUFlCIENT SENSE OF SOLIDARITY homogeneity and collective purpose to accept the levels OFTAXATIONREQUIRED

1.

That developmental state model, most effectively pursued by countries such as Japan and France, was widely accepted in the advanced industrial countries from the end of the war to the oil shock. It ran into trouble in the second half OFTHESTHANKSTOACOMBINATIONOFHIGHINmATIONAND RECALCITRANTTRADEUNIONS"OTH*APANAND"RITAINHADINmATION rates of 23 per cent in 1975. Japan, with cooperative unions and a synchropay system (i.e. a grand national negotiation ONCEAYEAR GOTINmATIONDOWNTOASINGLEDIGITINTWOYEARS Britain, with more bolshie unions and a throughout-theYEAR INDUSTRYBYINDUSTRY @LEAPFROGGINGBARGAININGSYSTEM STILL HAD DOUBLE DIGIT INmATION WHEN CHAOS BROUGHT -RS 4HATCHERTOPOWERANDSHEENFORCEDASWINGEINGDEmATION ONTHEMODELOFTHE6OLCKERDEmATIONWHICHUSHERED2EAGAN to power.

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE



Thereafter, those two politicians, and their economic advisers, managed to convert the world, the IMF, the World Bank to the second, the neo-liberal prescription, which one MIGHTSUMMARIZEASFOLLOWS 1.

Collective goals (even winning out in international competition) are feeble motivators of personal economic behaviour. The only reliable motivator is self-interest, the PROSPECTOFPROlT  (ENCETHE@SMALLSTATE MINIMUMTAXATIONANDDEREGULATION TOUNLEASHPROlT SEEKINGENTERPRISE  )NmATION WHICH HITS THE OWNERS OF lNANCIAL ASSETS IS TO BE AVOIDED :ERO INmATION IS IDEAL BUT A n3 per cent INmATIONMAYBETOLERATEDIFITSTIMULATESINVESTMENT  ,OW OR NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ARE THE BEST STIMULUS TO investment.

The evil effects of this prescription in industrial countries with declining populations are clear for all to see. Since Japan started it nearly ten years ago, the favourite mechanism of central bankers to hold down interest rates HAS BEEN @QUANTITATIVE EASING #ENTRAL BANKS EXPAND THE MONEY SUPPLY BY BUYING UP THEIR COUNTRIES BONDS FOR cash, from the banks. A Japanese calculation shows how ineffective that is. Over ten years the Bank of Japan (BoJ) BOUGHT  TRILLION YENS WORTH /F THAT SUM THE BANKS increased their reserve deposits with the BoJ by 128 trillion. Only 3 trillion got into the real economy, and some of that must have been spent to buy newly-issued bonds necessary TOCOVERTHElSCALDElCIT The other effect of QE is to lower interest rates. 7HEN ASIN ALLTHEDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESAREBUYING THEIR OWN AND EACH OTHERS BONDS COMPETITIVELY BOND PRICES RISE AND CONSEQUENTLY INTEREST RATES FALL 4HIS IS thought to have an investment-stimulating effect which



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

INCREASES AGGREGATE DEMAND AND HELPS TO JUMP START THE economy. )NPRACTICE THOUGH IN ITDIDNOTHAPPENTHATWAY Corporate savings were so high, that they can much more easily lNANCEINVESTMENTSLIKELYTORENDERAGOODYIELDINTERNALLY without recourse to bank loans. Other things are holding BACKINVESTMENT NOTTHEINTERESTRATEPOPULATIONSHRINKAGE the steady increase in corporate savings and dividends at the expense of a decline in wage/salary household income, etc. It is optimistic capitalists that are lacking, not cash. PRINT MONEY, NOT BONDS

7HATNOBODYHASYETTRIEDISANIDEAmOATEDBY!DAIR4URNER earlier this year,12 from which central banks recoil with horror. 3TOPCOVERINGTHElSCALDElCITBYSELLINGNEWBONDS)NSTEAD JUSTTELLTHECENTRALBANKTOPRINTANDHANDOVERNEWMONEY -ORE ON THIS IN THE NEXT CHAPTER BUT BRIEmY TO SUMMARIZEINmATIONWILLINEVITABLYRESULT ANDSOWILLARISE IN INTEREST RATES 4HE INmATION COULD BE ALLOWED TO GO UP TOPERCENT WITHCOMPENSATIONFORlXEDINCOMEFAMILIES OFTHREE MONTHLYADJUSTMENTSOFTHEMINIMUMWAGE SOCIAL SECURITYBENElTSANDSTATEPENSIONS&IVEPERCENTINmATION might act as an investment stimulus. The danger of spiralling HYPER INmATION IS MINIMAL IN A WORLD IN WHICH THERE ARE no genuinely bolshie unions. (The Italian four-hour general strike, in the autumn of 2013, was a feeble and pretty meaningless gesture.) The rise in interest rates is hardly likely TODETERINVESTMENTANDITWOULDHAVETHEHIGHLYBENElCIAL effect of allowing pension funds and insurance companies TOINVESTINREALECONOMYBONDS ANDSTOPTRYINGTOSQUEEZE out extra returns by subscribing vast sums to the hedge funds 12

!DAIR4URNER $EBT -ONEYAND-EPHISTOPHELES(OWDOWEGETOUTOFTHIS MESS,ECTUREAT#ASS"USINESS3CHOOL &EBRUARY

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE



ANDFUNDSOFFUNDSWHOSEGAMBLINGISTURNINGTHEWORLDS stock markets into one grand casino. Cash under their MANAGEMENTHASBEENSTEADILYINCREASINGnTOTRILLION dollars in March 2013. A lot of this is the result of the unbridled growth of the lNANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY AND ITS HIGH JACKING OF THE REAL ECONOMY 4RADITIONAL BANKING WAS ABOUT USING CUSTOMERS deposits (returnable on demand) to make long-term loans to entrepreneurs. (So-called maturity transformation.) Increasingly, as their stock of deposits grew with rising incomes, the ageing of populations and the growth of pension funds and insurance company assets, deposits were used also FOR@OWN ACCOUNTTRADINGOFlNANCIALINSTRUMENTS ALBEITWITH somewhat more sober and less speculative adventurousness than the hedge funds. The so-called Volcker rule would stop this, split banks INTOTRADITIONALBANKSCONlNEDTOMAKINGLOANSTOTHEREAL economy, and, under entirely separate management, banks WHICH TRADE lNANCIAL ASSETS FREELY 4HE RULE WAS EMBODIED in legislation passed by Congress two years ago, but haggling OBSTRUCTIONBY7ALL3TREETOVERTHERULESPRECISETRANSLATION into regulations prevented the announcement of its IMPLEMENTATIONON!PRIL UNTIL$ECEMBER4O be sure, one could also argue that getting the Treasury, the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Security and Exchange Commission, all of them bombarded with MISSIVESFROM7ALL3TREETANDITSACADEMICFRIENDS lNALLYTO agree on a set of rules in a mere two years, was a considerable ACHIEVEMENT 4HE lNAL DOCUMENT SPELLING OUT THOSE RULES RUNSTOPAGES4HELATESTDELAYINGTACTICBYTHEBIG7ALL Street banks is to secure a two-year postponement of the RULES IMPLEMENTATION TO ALLOW THEM TO SHED THEIR @LEGACY lNANCIALASSETSWITHOUTTOOGREATALOSS13 13

New York Times !PRIL



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

-EANWHILE SINCE TOP lNANCIAL GAMBLERS HAVE FABULOUS SALARIES AND PROlTS AND PAY LARGE SUMS IN TAXES THERE IS lively competition between London, New York, Frankfurt, Paris and Shanghai to have the gambling done on their premises. One of the most egregiously zealous competitors IS "RITAINS -R #ARNEY THE CURRENT 'OVERNOR OF THE "ANK OF%NGLAND (EHASRECENTLYSETTWOTARGETS TOCONTINUE QUANTITATIVE EASING UNTIL UNEMPLOYMENT COMES DOWN TO PERCENT TWOCHEERS
4HOUGHHEWASTAKENABACKWHEN the rate which he expected not to reach target for two YEARSDROPPEDTOPERCENTASEARLYAS*ANUARY AND (2) to increase the ratio of bank assets to GDP from the PRESENTTO

SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR EP2

1. An inclusive sense of social solidarity, a sense that within the nation-state my brother is my keeper. During the Golden Age from the war to the oil shock most European nations had such a sense, largely a legacy of the war and a function of the relative homogeneity of racial composition. That was what brought the welfare state, and highly progressive levels of income taxation. But fading memories of wartime and the growth of third-world immigration have very largely destroyed such sense of social solidarity. Its periodic revival at World Cup matches has no practical POLITICALSIGNIlCANCEWHATEVER)NTHE5NITED+INGDOM Government efforts to deal with the problem such as the ,ABOUR'OVERNMENTS3OCIAL%XCLUSION4ASK&ORCElZZLE out. Private charities, working in particular sectors such as health, are more effective, but still marginal. 2. Without a strong welfare system and highly progressive RATESOFINCOMETAX ALESSUNEQUALDISTRIBUTIONOFINCOME and life chances cannot be attained. In addition to the

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE



SOLIDARITY QUESTION HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE INCOME TAXES ARE ruled out by the dominant concern with EP1. Highly ENDOWEDINDIVIDUALSAREINDEEDMOBILEINTODAYSGLOBAL economy, more particularly in the dominant Anglophone section of it. INEQUALITY: THE MECHANISMS

3INCE ) WROTE THE lRST DRAFT OF THIS PAPER THE @INEQUALITY BOOMHASBROKENOUTALLOVER)TISHARDTOTHINKOFANOTHER BOOK WHICH HAS HAD THE IMPACT OF 0IKETTYS The Financial Times and the New York Times are both running a series of articles vividly describing what it means to be poor. Obama can hardly make a speech without promising to restore greater EQUALITYThe Wall Street Journal is alone in denouncing the PREOCCUPATIONWITHINEQUALITYASABLEEDINGHEARTSFAD The Piketty boom is particularly welcome to egalitarians, and his meticulous research on wealth distribution is to be admired, however much critics pick unimportant holes in it. But it is true that, as James Galbraith has pointed out, there is no inevitability about the steady skewing of the wealth distribution. Wealth taxes and higher inheritance taxes, together with a clean-out of the tax havens could apply brakes. One needs to analyse the structure of political power, and the correlation between PERSONALWEALTHANDPERSONALPOLITICALINmUENCETOUNDERSTAND the likelihood (unlikelihood) of those brakes being applied. But a more important point is that the distribution of wealth is not the only, nor the most important, source OFINEQUALITY/NESTUDYOFTHEINCOMEOFTHETOPPERCENTOF British taxpayers found that only 32 per cent of their income 

%G-ELISSA+ITE @&OLLOWTHELOGIC%D ANDHUGABANKER Guardian, &EBRUARYAND"ARRY,ONGFORDSRESPONSE ,ETTERS *ANUARY 3EEALSOTHEJEERINGRED NECKOPEDINTHEWall Street Journal, Daniel (ENINGER @4HEINCOMEINEQUALITYLOVETRAIN !PRIL



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

WASCAPITALINCOME PERCENTWASLABOURINCOMEnTHOSE fabulous salaries and bonuses. And the increasing skewing of that primary labour income IS ineluctable if left to market forces because it is produced by the interaction of continuingly progressive technological change tending always to greater COMPLEXITY AND A STATIC DISTRIBUTION OF LEARNING ABILITY n OF the ability to meet the learning needs of that technology. On this point Piketty is highly conventional. Like most modern social scientists he shies away from any discussion of genes, any discussion of the differences among human capacities and orientations and the role played in those differences by genetic inheritance. He writes15 of the mechanisms underlying THEDISTRIBUTIONOFLABOURINCOMETHATTHEYINCLUDE The supply of and demand for different skills, the state of the educational system, and the various rules and institutions that affect the operation of the labour market and the determination of wages.

That is to say the provision of learning opportunities, but no mention of the distribution of the ability to learn which produces different skills. )TWASNOTALWAYSSO)NTHELATES THEPOETANDWIDE ranging intellectual of the pre-war years, Michael Roberts, editor of the Faber Book of Modern Verse, wrote one of the lRSTBOOKSTODEALWITHTHEPROSPECTSOFDEVELOPMENTINTHE countries of Africa and Asia. The chances, he suggested, of any country succeeding depended on the proportion of people with an A or A+ intelligence in the population. Today such talk is deemed shocking. It would be seen as racist and unacceptable even to suggest that he seems to be 15



Capital in the Twenty-first Century #HAPTER  )NEQUALITY AND #ONCENTRATION0RELIMINARY"EARINGS+INDLEEDITIONPERCENT  Michael Roberts, The Estate of Man &ABERAND&ABER  PPn

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE



proved right by the casual observation of a great difference in rates of economic growth between, on the one hand China, Japan, Korea and Vietnam with their Mongoloid populations and, on the other, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines with their non-Mongoloid populations, much slower growth and economies in which an immigrant Chinese minority plays a prominent role. @'ENETICDETERMINISMISTREATEDNOTJUSTASAHERESY BUTAS a moral sin. The social psychologists who did the studies of twins reared apart, and used many other methods to estimate the relative contributions of genes and of the childhood environment to the variance in IQ test scores are no longer rewarded with punch-ups by the righteous when they give lectures, as they once were, but the hostility remains.17 The backlash was probably at its peak during the tumultuous YEAROF THEYEAROFWHATONEMIGHTCALLTHE0HILISTINE Student Revolution. That was also the year in which the Galton Institute ceased publication, in its sixtieth year, of the Eugenics Review. Several mechanisms are involved. Two relevant theories ARETHOSEABOUT@SMALLNUMBERSMARKETSAND@WINNERTAKESALL The salaries and bonuses of top CEOs, bankers and footballing stars are explained by their very exceptional talents, which, since in both cases, they have the same training and the same QUALIlCATIONS AS MANY OF THEIR LESS DISTINGUISHED FELLOWS IS generally attributed to genetic luck. (If proven to be real talent in terms of goals scored or number of failing companies TURNED AROUND AND NOT JUST A CUMULATIVE PROCESS OF MYTH MAKINGnANESCALATINGFEEDBACKLOOPWHEREBYINITIALSUCCESS and reputation and further success reinforce each other.) The SMALLNUMBERSOFBUYERSOFTHESETALENTSnLEADINGCORPORATIONS 17

For a splendid denunciation of anti-gene hypocrisy see Jill Boucher, @7ECANTIGNORETHEEVIDENCEGENESAFFECTSOCIALMOBILITY Prospect, December 2013.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

ANDSOCCERCLUBSnTURNSTHEIRRECRUITMENTMARKETSINTOAUCTION MARKETSINWHICHTHEPRICECANRISEINDElNITELYDEPENDINGON THEBIDDERSlNANCIALRESOURCES "UT THE @ALL OF @WINNER TAKES ALL IS HIGHLY MISLEADING A club which hires a star striker at x million dollars, is in teamspirit trouble if his colleagues do not get x-1 or x-2 million. CEOs head far larger organizations than a football team and $ISNEYS #%/ FOR ALL HIS M PER ANNUM REMUNERATION cannot operate effectively if his immediate subordinates with whom he interacts daily, do not have salaries and bonuses at least within striking distance of, say, 50 per cent of his.18 At THE"ANKOF!MERICAIN THE#%/SSALARYWASM ANDHISFOURIMMEDIATESUBORDINATES  THOUGHWITH BONUSES ADDED THE SPREAD WAS FROM M TO M19 The same applies to those four £800,000 people of that inner cabinet, and their own immediate subordinates, and so on down the line. Top pulls up the bottom, leading to an INCREASINGGAPBETWEENTHE@MIDDLECLASSWITHQUASI TENURED JOBS IN LARGE ORGANIZATIONS PROTECTED BY THE PREDICTABILITY of bail-outs, and an impoverished precariat. The total REMUNERATIONINOFlFTY SEVENTOPEARNERSATTHENINE US banks which were bailed out in the 2008 Troubled Asset 2ELIEFPROGRAMME WASM APPROXIMATELYMEACH20 These salary levels rise inexorably, independently of the intentions of the managers who set salaries and bargain with ! BRIEF TRAWL FOUND NO RESEARCH WHICH COULD PUT A BALL PARK lGURE to these assertions. The large business school literature on intraorganizational differentials, seems either to derive from the Mayo Human Relations School in which pay is unmentionable, or, in the industrial relations tradition, to deal with situations in which occupational groups within an organization have separate union bargaining arrangements. 19 CNN News, Big Bank Excess. What they take home  HTTP money.cnn.com/news/specials/storysupplement/ceopay/. 20 CNN News, op. cit. 18

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE



POTENTIAL GENIUS RECRUITS OVER THEIR @PACKAGES )N A BID TO HOLDBACK LARGE3ILICON6ALLEYlRMSREACHEDASECRETDEALTO DAMPENTHE@SMALLNUMBERSCOMPETITIONWHICHWASSTEADILY ERODINGTHEIRPROlTSFROMINmATINGSALARYCOSTS4HEYAGREED NOTTO@COLDCALLnIENOTACTIVELYTOTRYTOPOACHnEACH OTHERSEMPLOYEES4HEYWEREREWARDEDBYACLASS ACTIONSUIT BROUGHTONBEHALFOF PROGRAMMERS CLAIMINGBILLIONS of dollars for loss of income due to the illegal breach of antitrust rules. Steve Jobs was credited with being the chief villain, the chief organizing creator of the cartel.21 ! SECOND MAJOR MECHANISM IS THE GRADUAL ACCUMULATION of technological knowledge and the embodiment of that knowledge in machines. This has enormous implications for income distribution and its relation to learning ability and learning opportunities. There are still optimists who believe that it is learning opportunities which are crucial. They point to the fact that Germany, Austria and Switzerland with their well-established apprenticeship systems, have lesser youth unemployment ratios than in the US or the rest of Europe. They do indeed, but even there the unemployment ratio is rising, and apprenticeships are being scorned in favour of university education. 'ERMANYSVOCATIONALTRAININGISASOURCEOFINTERNATIONAL admiration and imitating it has become a fashionable solution to high levels of youth unemployment across Europe. But in Germany, growing numbers of school leavers are choosing to go to university instead of starting an apprenticeship, triggering alarm that small businesses will STRUGGLETOlLLSKILLEDPOSITIONS Eric Schweitzer, president of the Association of German CHAMBERSOFCOMMERCEANDINDUSTRY$)(+ WARNED

21

New York Times -ARCH

50

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

Years of blanket calls for Germany to raise the percentage of THOSESTUDYING;ATUNIVERSITY=HAVELEDTOTHESITUATIONTHAT our lecture halls are bursting at the seams while companies SEARCHDESPERATELYTOlNDAPPRENTICES Germany risks long-term damage as a business location IF THE TREND TOWARDS @ACADEMICIZATION NO MATTER THE COST is not stopped. As is the case in southern European crisis-hit countries, a high rate of graduation from university is by no MEANSAGUARANTEEFORAmOURISHINGECONOMYANDLOWYOUTH unemployment.22

Those same optimists would have a favourable view of the following table which shows how much further along Britain HASCOMEINTHETRAJECTORYJUSTDESCRIBED23 Three UK Cohorts at Age Eighteen

Cohort born in 1970, aged 18 in 1988

Cohort born in 1991, aged 18 in 2009

Employed (with PERCENT PERCENT or without OFF THE JOB training) FT education 17 per cent 25 per cent or training Out of the 9 per cent 7 per cent labour force

PERCENT per cent paid WORK PERCENT apprenticeship) PERCENT

Cohort born in 1958, aged 18 in1972

PERCENT

#HRIS"RYANT @'ERMANSCHOOL LEAVERSSPURNAPPRENTICESHIPS Financial Times, &EBRUARY 23 Alison Wolf, Review of Vocational Education: The Wolf Report, Department for Education, March 2011, p. 25. 22

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

51

There are still some who would have us believe that the increase in those getting further education and training represents progress. Sancta simplicitas
7HILE THERE ARE NO DElNITIVE STUDIES BOTH RECENT English patterns and comparisons with Europe suggest that INCREASEDPARTICIPATIONISONLYPARTLYBECAUSEOFTHE@PULL OFHIGHER LEVELQUALIlCATIONS BUTBECAUSEyoung people are pushed into education by a lack of jobs. That is borne out BY THE @CHURNING IN AND OUT OF THE LABOUR MARKET THAT CHARACTERIZES YOUNG PEOPLES EARLY YEARS OF EMPLOYMENT and, in the English case, by the large numbers of sixteen and seventeen year olds (10 per cent in 2009) who report that they are in education and training but would accept a JOBOFFERIFAVAILABLE 4HE STAPLE OFFER FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF THE POST SIXTEENCOHORTISADIETOFLOW LEVELVOCATIONALQUALIlcations, most of which have little to no labour market value. Among sixteen to nineteen year olds the Review estimates THATATLEAST GETLITTLETONOBENElTFROMTHEPOST sixteen educational system.25 Clearly the fundamental problem lies not so much in differential learning opportunities as in differential learning abilities. Consider Britain at three stages of technological DEVELOPMENT ITS STILL LARGELY AGRARIAN ECONOMY OF 1850, its largely industrial economy of the 1950s when A  PER CENT LEVEL OF @FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT WAS THE STANDARD DElNITION OF @FULL EMPLOYMENT AND THE PRESENT day. In an 1850 village of independent or tenant farmers, most of whom inherited much the same property and land rights as each other, there were nonetheless some differences in prosperity among neighbouring farmers. Much of the 

7OLF2EPORT P Ibid., p. 7.

25

52

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

differences were the result of demographic luck (ratio of active workers to more passive consumers), and physical ROBUSTNESS BUT ALSO DUE TO PERSONAL QUALITIES OF FAMILY MEMBERS PARTLYTHEABILITYTOPOSTPONEGRATIlCATIONINORDER to save, but partly due to intelligence. The smart farmer LEARNED MORE QUICKLY TO RECOGNIZE THE SIGNS OF INCIPIENT BLIGHT WAS BETTER INFORMED ABOUT SOIL QUALITIES FERTILIZERS and the choice of crop strains. That intelligence, learning ability counted, but probably contributed very little to the variance in prosperity. "Y  THE WORLD HAD CHANGED 7HEREAS IN  IT was perfectly acceptable to spend public money on a Royal Commission to investigate how well the public schools were ‘preparing upper and upper-middle class boys for the UNIVERSITIES THERELUCTANTGRANTINGOFUNIVERSALMALESUFFRAGE IN  PROVIDED AN INCENTIVE TO BOOST STATE EXPENDITURES on curing the illiteracy of the lower classes. In 1903, the threat from a rising Germany prompted a nationalist attempt TOINCREASETHENATIONSINTELLECTUALRESOURCESBYALINKINGOF the working-class and middle-class educational institutions. Bright elementary schoolchildren were given scholarships to middle-class schools which fed the universities. Thus was born the age of the grammar school which ENTEREDITSHEYDAYWITHTHE"UTLER!CTOF INSPIREDBY wartime ideals of classless national solidarity. It sought to make the differences among schools a matter of meritocracy rather than class. Fee-paying grammar schools for the middle CLASSBECAMEPARTOFATRIPARTITESYSTEMFORTHEOFCHILDREN WHOREMAINEDINTHESTATESECTORnGRAMMAR COMPREHENSIVE and technical. Six per cent remained in the private sector n THE PUZZLINGLY NAMED @PUBLIC SCHOOLS n WHICH BECAME RAPIDLY RANKED BY PUPILS @INTELLECTUAL LEVEL )1 HIGHLY correlated with fees paid. In the state sector fees were abolished and allocation to THE THREE TYPES DEPENDED ON SELECTIVE EXAMINATIONS n THE

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

53

SO CALLED @ELEVEN PLUS n DESIGNED TO GIVE EVERYBODY AN EDUCATION SUITED TO THEIR @AGE APTITUDE AND ABILITY 4HIS meant in practice providing grammar schools for the brightest nUSUALLYnPERCENTDEPENDINGONTHEAFmUENCEOFTHE LOCAL AUTHORITY 4HE EXTREMES BEING  AND  3INCE everyone wanted to go to grammar school, in popular parlance THISBECAMEAMATTEROF@PASSINGORFAILINGTHEELEVENPLUS It was not a popular system among those who failed, particularly those on the borderline. By the time they took the exam almost everyone knew their percentile ranking and how close they were to the borderline, thanks to repeated @MOCKEXAMS Add to popular sentiment the views of professional educators who deplored the way in which the last year of middle SCHOOLWASINCREASINGLYDEVOTEDTOTRAININGFORTHESE@MOCKS rather than to the substantive business of learning and LEARNINGTOENJOYLEARNING The result was a substantial revision, or rather dissolution, of the structure in the system in the 1970s, as each local authority was given the right to establish its own criteria for ADMISSIONTOITSSCHOOLS4HEMAJORITYDELEGATEDTHATPOWER leaving all admission rules to its individual schools. These showed a great diversity. Most used some form of tests, but combined it with school reports, or, for example, giving priority to the children of staff members. And, concomitantly, occupational selection for those above average IQ, became increasingly a matter of educational sifting. To be a librarian, no longer was it enough, as a careers guide at the turn of the century advised, to be a lover of books and have the right connections. You had to have a diploma or a graduate diploma in Library Science. Only university graduates could become administrative level civil servants or grammar school teachers. &OR THE MAJORITY WHO TOOK THE OTHER JOBS THAT DID NOT REQUIRE EDUCATIONAL QUALIlCATIONS THERE WERE PLENTY OF



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

OPPORTUNITIESFORLEARNINGONTHEJOB-ANUFACTURINGQUALITY controls were still weak and there was a lot of repair work to be done, while expanding populations led to a buoyancy of demand, and continuous creation of new vacancies. By and large there was a rough correlation between learnING ABILITY JOB COMPLEXITY AND EARNINGS THE PEOPLE WHO became electricians were generally smarter than those who became plumbers, but hardly anyone could not learn to be ABUILDERSLABOURERORANOFlCECLEANERORONEOFTHEMASS army of assembly workers in manufacturing, and earn a basic living wage thereby, even enough to support a full-time housewife. But the steady process of automatization has changed all that. Most assembly-lines today are tended not by humans but by robots. No building labourer now climbs rickety ladders with a hod of bricks over his shoulder. Keynes saw this @OLDJOBDESTRUCTIONBEGINNINGTOHAPPENINANDLOOKED forward to the day when technology would allow everybody TO WORK FOR A MERE lFTEEN HOURS A WEEK Instead, what we have are a lot of bright people who have mastered the machines, working seventy hours a week and earning vast sums, and an underclass of people who can only do the sort OFSIMPLEJOBTHATALMOSTANYONECANDO WHOWORKFEWER hours of work for pitiable incomes, or zero hours because THEYCANTlNDAJOB 4HEMARKETUNDOUBTEDLYDOESITSJOBOFPROVIDINGINCENtives. Anyone with the intellect needed to write inventive SOFTWARE MAYWELLBEINDUCEDTOACQUIRETHENECESSARYTRAINing. But for those who do not have the necessary level of BRAINPOWER LEARNINGABILITY THEJOBSTHATTHEYUSEDTODO preparing invoices, packaging, turning, welding are now 

@%CONOMIC 0OSSIBILITIES FOR OUR 'RANDCHILDREN IN *OHN -AYNARD Keynes, Essays in Persuasion .EW9ORK77.ORTON#O  PPn

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

55

done more reliably by machines. There remain a whole range OFCARINGJOBS BUTFARFROMENOUGHOFTHOSEJOBSCONSISTIN caring for people who have the private or public resources to pay the carer a decent income. It is the lack of effective demand which keeps so many potential carers unemployed. The most useful cure for the high levels of dignityDESTRUCTIVEUNEMPLOYMENTISPUBLICSECTOR@MAKE WORKAND THE SUBSIDIZATION OF PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS THE MARKET VALUE return to which would be below the social security minimum. The subsidy would have to bring wages marginally ABOVETHATMINIMUMTOGIVEANINCENTIVETOTAKETHATJOB The Working Tax Credit, plus Child Tax Credit in the UK DOJUSTTHAT BUTTHEENORMOUSCOMPLICATIONSANDTHEPOSSIbility of having the credits clawed back if incomes change in the course of a year mean that only 5 million of the 7 million eligible have applied !S MARKET PRODUCED INEQUALITY GROWS THE COST OF SUCH a system will of course spiral. At present, both the British SCHEME AND !MERICAS SIMILAR %ARNED )NCOME 4AX #REDIT cost less than half a per cent of GDP, but rising as advocates of redistribution like Robert Reich have a probably growINGINmUENCE27 The high proportion of such costs devoted to administering such a system, including the cost in terms of diminishing social cohesion as the Wall Street Journal and the Daily Mail go thundering on about welfare frauds. There is a good possibility that eventually this will be cured by transforming the whole system, plus the state pension system into ABASIC CITIZENSINCOMEPAIDTOEVERYONE4HIS ATASTROKE abolishes the concept of unemployment. People are free to EARN EXTRA INCOME BY TAKING A JOB OR IF THEY ARE SATISlED with their minimum income to spend their time painting pictures or watching television. No stigma should attach 2OBERT 2EICH @7E MUST REDISTRIBUTE INCOME New York Times, 5 December 2013.

27



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

to any choice. The Wikipedia article on Basic Income28 provides a formidable list of people, including, surprisingly, Milton Friedman, who have been Basic Income advocates over the years. THE HEART OF THE MATTER

)TWASQUITEPOSSIBLE WHEN&RIEDMANWASWRITINGINTHE 1950s, to believe that market forces would ensure that productivity gains from improving technology would be shared by all. Even in humble occupations that almost anybody was capable of learning to do, the demand for labour was keeping pace with increasing supply. And it WAS STILL JUST ABOUT POSSIBLE IN #LINTONS DAY TO BELIEVE THAT@ARISINGTIDELIFTSALLBOATS"UTINAINWHICH  PER CENT OF THE INCREASE IN !MERICAS '$0 WENT TO the top one per cent of taxpayers is a different world. And as The Economist points out in a special issue, 29 the WORLD OF  WILL BE DIFFERENT AGAIN 4HE DISJUNCTION BETWEENTHEDEMANDFORLABOURINCOMPLEXJOBSANDTHE high incomes that come with them on the one hand, and on the other the distribution of the brainpower needed TOLEARNTODOTHOSEJOBS WILLGROWEVERMOREOBVIOUSLY acute. 28

29

See also the regular newsletter of BIEN, the Basic Income Earth Network, which records a worldwide increase in support for the basic income PROJECTWWWBASICINCOMEORG  Economist, 18n*ANUARYComing to an office near you. ‘One

recent study by academics at Oxford University suggests that in the 53 PERCENTOFTODAYSJOBSWILLBEAUTOMATEDINTHENEXTTWO DECADES4HESTUDYINQUESTIONSEEMSTOHAVEBEEN Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerization; September 20134HEPERCENTISOF53JOBS

THELOSS@OVERTHENEXTDECADEORTWO INCLUDINGTHEGREATEREASE OFOFF SHORINGSIMPLIlEDJOBS

THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

57

And yet ….. It is still possible for an intelligent magazine like Prospect to print a long article30 on the difference between the high scores on the famous PISA mathematical tests in Singapore, Shanghai, etc. and the low scores in the UK and the US, which has no single mention of the possibility that the normal distribution of the genetic component of learning ability differs as between Caucasian and Mongolian gene pools the Mongolian median shifted to the right and possibly with higher kurtosis. Instead, there are lengthy speculations on such possible factors as the fact that the words for numbers are monosyllabic and an Englishman can only count up to seven by the time a Chinese gets up to ten. (As if mental arithmetic was done in words and not mental representation OF lGURES !PPARENTLY IN SPITE OF THE EVIDENCE THAT THE accepted prescriptions for effective teaching are similar in both countries, a posse of thirty Shanghai maths teachers is coming to set the Brits straight. Nor did it consider an obvious test of the ‘difference IN GENE POOLS HYPOTHESIS NAMELY THE COMPARISON OF different immigrant groups in the USA. The differences can be striking as a report by Google on its work force31 shows. /F ITS 5NITED 3TATES EMPLOYEES  PER CENT ARE WHITE 2 per cent are black and 3 per cent are Hispanic. About oneTHIRD ARE !SIAN WELL ABOVE THE NATIONAL AVERAGE AND  PER CENTAREOFTWOORMORERACES/F'OOGLESTECHNICALSTAFF PERCENTAREWHITE PERCENTAREBLACK PERCENTARE (ISPANIC PERCENTARE!SIANANDPERCENTAREOFTWOOR more races. In the United States work force overall, 80 per cent of employees are white, 12 per cent are black and $AVID4ALL @7HYARETHE"RITISHBADATMATHS Prospect, -AY #LAIRE#AIN-ILLER @'OOGLERELEASESEMPLOYEEDATA ILLUSTRATINGTECHS DIVERSITYCHALLENGE New York Times -AY

30 31

58

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

5 per cent are Asian, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Decades of urging better education and training as the solution, ignoring, or denying the importance of that DISJUNCTION BETWEEN THE HIERARCHY OF OCCUPATIONS AND THE LEARNINGABILITYTHEYREQUIREANDONTHEOTHERHANDTHEACTUAL distribution of learning ability, have borne little fruit. Nor are they likely to do so in future. The recognition may grow among the rich, that a high degree of income redistribution is the only way to preserve social peace and any vestige of social solidarity within nationstates. At the moment such recognition is scarce. See for INSTANCE THE HOWLS OF RAGE THAT IN *ANUARY  GREETED IN Britain the declaration by a Labour Party spokesman that when it formed a government it would raise the top rate of TAXFROMPERCENTTOPERCENT32 And a fortiori in the United States. See Footnote 7, above. But today it is hard to see how that recognition can indeed grow. The impoverished are also the inarticulate. +URT 6ONNEGUTS Player PianoAND -ICHAEL 9OUNGS Rise of the Meritocracy predict an organized revolt which gives them voice, the one led by clever engineers over-endowed with empathy, the other by women, thought more likely to have such an endowment as well as persuasive skills. It is hard not to be pessimistic about the world that our children and grandchildren will grow up in.

32

Financial Times  *ANUARY  @,ABOURS GROWING GULF WITH BUSINESS )RONICALLY THE %D "ALLS SPEECH WHICH UNLEASHED THESE protests included the tax rise as a sop to traditional Labour voters, INASPEECHTHEGENERALTHRUSTOFWHICHWASTOREASSURETHElNANCIAL COMMUNITYTHATA,ABOURGOVERNMENTWOULDBEJUSTASPROTECTIVEOF the City as the Tories.

Chapter 3

OPMF, CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATISM AND FINANCIAL ECONOMICS33

y To print moneyTOlNANCEDElCITSINDEEDHASTHESTATUSOF AMORALSINnAWORKOFTHEDEVILnASMUCHASATECHNICAL error. In a speech in September 2012, Jens Weidmann, PresIDENTOFTHE"UNDESBANK CITEDTHESTORYOF0ARTOF'OETHES Faust, in which Mephistopheles, agent of the devil, tempts the Emperor to distribute paper money, increasing spending power, writing off state debts, and fuelling an upswing WHICH HOWEVER @DEGENERATES INTO INmATION DESTROYING THE MONETARYSYSTEM!DAIR4URNER QUOTING7EIDMANN  INASPEECHAT#ASS"USINESS3CHOOL &EBRUARY35). ,ORD4URNER FORMERLYTHE#HAIRMANOF"RITAINS&INANCIAL Services Agency and once generally expected to be the 33

An Italian version of this chapter was published in Politica Economia,  I  Weidmann, Jens: ‘Money Creation and Responsibility’, Speech at the THCOLLOQUIUMOFTHE)NSTITUTEFOR"ANK (ISTORICAL2ESEARCH)"& Frankfurt, September 2012. 35 !DAIR4URNER @$EBT MONEYAND-EPHISTOPHELES(OWDOWEGETOUT OFTHISMESS ,ECTUREAT#ASS"USINESS3CHOOL &EBRUARY



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

next Governor of the Bank of England, but thought to be TOODARINGATHINKERBY"RITAINS#ONSERVATIVE#HANCELLOR OFTHE%XCHEQUER  was responsible for introducing some NOVELIDEASINTOlSCALPOLICYDISCUSSIONINTHEAUTUMNOF 2012 and the spring of 2013, the most discussed of which WAS WHAT HE CALLED /0-& n OVERT PERMANENT MONETARY lNANCING OF THE lSCAL DElCIT 5NFORTUNATELY HE ALSO USED THE TERM @HELICOPTER MONEY REFERRING TO +EYNES CELEBRATED JOKING REMARKS MEANT TO UNDERLINE HIS POINT that expanding demand was the key to economic recovery. 9OU MIGHT THINK OF PAYING PEOPLE TO DIG HOLES AND lLL them in again, he said, or print new paper money and scatter it from a helicopter. But what Turner actually had in mind was something difFERENTnlNANCINGTHElSCALDElCIT NOTBYISSUINGNEWGOVernment bonds and using the proceeds of their sale to balance the books, but simply by getting the central bank or whoever is the issuer of new money to print the necessary cash and hand it to the government. (EWARNS INTHESPEECHQUOTEDABOVE THATTHISWASRISKY medicine which might turn into poison, but he did not speculate much as to the probabilities or the mechanisms by which it might do so. SACROSANCT TARGETS

) SHALL HAVE MORE TO SAY ON THOSE PROBLEMS BUT lRST LET me drive home my point that the reason why the OPMF idea did not provoke much controversy is because of an ANTIPATHYDEEPLYROOTEDINTHElNANCIALECONOMICSCOMmunity, towards even entertaining the possibility that an INmATIONRATEHIGHERTHANPERCENTCOULDEVERBEA'OOD Thing. 

George Orborne

OPMF, CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATISM



Consider this passage from a paper37 casting doubt on the notion that Central Banks should raise interest rates to head OFFBUBBLES 4HISMAYBEDESIRABLEnITISARGUEDnEVENIFTHATINTERVENTION LEADS ASABY PRODUCT TOATRANSITORYDEVIATIONOFINmATION and output from target.

4HE TARGET OF LOW INmATION IS TAKEN FOR GRANTED &AILING to meet it is a sinful deviation. And here is an extract from a dissenter who thinks that reducing unemployment should be given higher priority. Narayana Kocherlakota explained himself thus, after being the lone dissenting VOICEATTHE-ARCHMEETINGOFTHE&%$S-ONETARY0OLICY Committee )NTERMSOFCREDIBILITYTHE0ERSONAL#ONSUMPTION%XPENDITURE 0#% INmATIONRATEHASDRIFTEDDOWNWARDOVERTHEPASTFEW YEARS AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR  PER CENT 4HE &/-#S NEW forward guidance does not communicate purposeful steps BEING TAKEN TO FACILITATE A MORE RAPID INCREASE OF INmATION back to the 2 per cent target. The absence of this kind of COMMUNICATIONWEAKENSTHECREDIBILITYOFTHE#OMMITTEES INmATION TARGET BY SUGGESTING THAT THE #OMMITTEE VIEWS PERSISTENTLYSUB  PERCENTINmATIONASANACCEPTABLEOUTCOME

Again, the 2 per cent target is seen as sacrosanct. PROBLEMS WITH OPMF

I was given fairly extensive space for a long essay in the -ARCHISSUEOFTHE*APANESEWEEKLY THEEkonomisuto, *ORDI'ALLI @-ONETARYPOLICYANDRATIONALASSETPRICEBUBBLES American Economic Review 

37



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

AJOURNALWHICHISCELEBRATINGITSth anniversary and has a circulation of 80,000. The title of my piece was ‘Abenomics  PER CENT INmATION TARGET IS HALF BAKED AND ) USED THE OCCASIONTOINTRODUCE4URNERSIDEASABOUT/0-&ANDALSO TOlLLINWHATSEEMEDTOMETOBEGAPSIN4URNERSARGUMENT 1.

He did not say whether the policy should be accompanied BYTHEATTEMPTTOREDUCEORTOEXPANDTHElSCALDElCIT 2. He did not consider the social and institutional changes SINCETHESWHENINmATIONBECAMETHE'REATEST%VIL for central bankers, and so had little to say about the LIKELIHOODTHATHIGHINmATIONWOULDLEADTOUNCONTROLLABLE HYPERINmATION SUCH AS THAT OF 'ERMANY IN  AN experience seared into the souls of High Establishment 'ERMANSSUCHAS7EIDMANNWHOM4URNERQUOTED  7HILE QUOTING THE &EDS  PER CENT INmATION CEILING AND"LANCHARDSPROPOSALFORAMUCHHIGHERTARGET HEDID not specify what might be the tolerable upper limits for INmATIONANDINTERESTRATES

!ND SO LACKING ANY REAL GRASP OF lNANCIAL ECONOMICS ) recognized perhaps 5 per cent of the bibliography attached TO THE PDF VERSION OF 4URNERS SPEECH ) OVERCOME ANY @FEARS TO TREAD AND CLAIM A SOCIOLOGISTS RIGHT TO PLUNGE INTO ANY ARGUMENT AND HAVE A GO AT lLLING 4URNERS gaps. ABENOMICS

First of all, let me summarize the nature of the Abenomics mentioned above. It has what have come to be called THE @THREE ARROWS &IRST A REDOUBLING OF 1% IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE AN INmATION RATE OF  PER CENT 3ECOND INCREASED government spending on infrastructure, including rebuilding after the Great North East Japan tsunami (an actual increase

OPMF, CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATISM



in expenditure for 2013 over 2012 of 3 per cent). Thirdly @3TRUCTURAL2EFORM Most scepticism is directed at the third arrow, which SINCE THE HEADY DAYS OF +OIZUMIS ELECTION IN  HAS been much more a slogan than a reality. Reality there was, INTHEPAINSTAKINGACTIVITYOF-IYAUCHIASCHAIRMANOF lRST the Relaxation of Regulation Committee, and later the Abolition of Regulation Committee, but whether or not ITEFFECTEDTHESEACHANGEENVISIONEDIN4AKENAKASSLOGAN ‘Post hoc regulatory checks not ex ante bureaucrat green LIGHTS IS DOUBTFUL !ND !BES CLAIMS TO CARRY FURTHER THE torch of deregulation took a sharp knock recently when he LOST THE SUPPORT OF *APANS MOST PROMINENT NET ENTREPRENEUR THEPRESIDENTOF2AKUTEN4HEYFELLOUTOVER!BES failure to legalize the online purchase of non-prescription drugs. Since I wrote the Ekonomisuto article I have learned a little MOREABOUTWHAT!BESINNERCIRCLEARETRYINGTODOTOMAKE the third arrow real, from lunch with an Abe-loyal member OFTHE"O*SMONETARYPOLICYCOMMITTEE ANDFROMREADING !BES3EPTEMBERSPEECHINAUGURATINGTHEPRESENT$IET 3ESSION4HEYCOUNTONGALVANIZING*APANSAGRICULTURALSECTORANDGEARINGITTOTHEEXPORTOFHIGHQUALITYFOODPRODUCTS The idea is to drastically reduce the amount of land used for family farmer production. (Average age of worker around SIXTY lVE AVERAGE INCOME ABOUT THE SOCIAL SECURITY MINImum, average yearly use of their expensive tractors about FORTY DAYS A YEAR )NSTEAD THE BIG TRADING lRMS THAT HAVE been so successful in getting Chinese farmers to produce MUSHROOMS FRESHVEGETABLESANDTATAMI MATREEDn70 per cent of the Japanese domestic market) for export to Japan, will be encouraged to wade into Japanese villages and use GENUINELYSCIENTIlCMETHODSNOTJUSTTHEMETICULOUSATTENtion of lifelong farmers) to produce both cheaper rice and HIGHQUALITYEXPORTPRODUCTSLIKESAKÏRICEWINE



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

!GRICULTURE PRODUCES JUST ABOUT ONE PER CENT OF *APANS GDP. Realism is not a common characteristic in Abe government circles. THE ARGUMENTS FOR OPMF

The chief points I made in that Ekonomisuto article were as follows. 1. The widespread belief that the best way to encourage investment is to keep real interest rates near or below ZEROISPROBABLYMISTAKEN PARTICULARLY AS4URNERQUOTES Koo38 as arguing, in days when the corporates are intent on deleveraging, and now, when they are hoarding CASHSOTHATTHEYWOULDNOTNEEDTOBORROWTOlNANCE investment. Expectations of future demand are a far more IMPORTANTFACTORINmUENCINGINVESTMENTDECISIONS 2. A stable 2 per cent inflation rate, symmetrically targeted (e.g. in Britain the Governor of the Bank of England has to write a letter explaining his failure to THE #HANCELLOR OF THE %XCHEQUER IF INFLATION REACHES 2.5 per cent and also if it falls below 1.5 per cent) can, as generally acknowledged, provide stable inflation expectations and easy evaluation of investment PROJECTS "UT A STEADY CREEP UP TO  PER CENT OVER two or more years, is unlikely to change inflation expectations. 3. For that, what is needed is a shock. That assertion which in my case is derived solely from intuition, but I suspect IS CONlRMED BY SUCH EMPIRICAL STUDIES OF EXPECTATIONS AND @ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS WHICH THE SMALL BAND of empirical economists have made. Turner draws a +OO 2ICHARD ‘The Holy Grail of Micro-economics, Lesson from Japan’s Great Recession’, Wiley, 2009.

38

OPMF, CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATISM



distinction between the realm of political economy to WHICHTHISQUESTIONBELONGS ASOPPOSEDTOTHE@TECHNICAL RELATIONS WITH WHICH lNANCIAL ECONOMICS DEALS AND THE arena in which most of his arguments are deployed.39  3UCHASHOCKCOULDBEADMINISTEREDBYTHEGOVERNMENT DECLARING (a) There will be no spending cuts which seriously threaten health, education, training and maintenance of the physical infrastructure. B "UTTHElSCALDElCITWILLBECOVEREDBYTHEPRINTINGOF cash, and not by the sale of new government debt for as LONGASPOSSIBLE2EVERSIONTOTRADITIONAL@SOUNDlNANCE WILLHAPPENWHENTHEREISADANGERTHATTHEINmATIONRATE will exceed 5 per cent C 4HESTANDARDARGUMENTSAGAINSTENGINEERINGINmATIONON THESCALEWHICHWOULDLIKELYFOLLOWARETWOTHEDAMAGE TO PEOPLE ON lXED INCOMES AND THE DANGER THAT THE INmATIONCOULDBECOMERUNAWAYANDHYPER D 4HElRSTCANBECOUNTEREDBYSIMULTANEOUSLYPROMISING three-monthly reviews of the minimum wage, social SECURITYBENElTSANDPENSIONS)TISNOTTHEPOORONlXED incomes, the widows and orphans who constitute the real opposition to anything like what is proposed here WHAT+EYNESnWHOMANAGED+INGS#OLLEGESlNANCIAL ASSETS n CALLED @DEBAUCHING THE CURRENCY BUT THE VERY powerful people whose wealth is in some kind of lNANCIALASSET THEVALUEOFWHICHINmATIONWOULDERODE The purchasing power of their assets would certainly BEREDUCED)NmATIONISlNEFORDEBTORS BUTPAINFULFOR creditors. E 4HEDANGEROFHYPERINmATIONHASCHANGEDGREATLYSINCE the late 1970s when Volcker, Thatcher and Reagan 4URNEROPCITPDFVERSION P

39



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

had to enforce a great deal of misery to avoid it. The CONTROLOFINmATIONISAGREATDEALEASIERNOWADAYSWITH the decline in the power of trade unions. The point ISWELLILLUSTRATEDBYTHEDIFFERENTINmATIONHISTORIESOF Japan and the UK. The doubling of oil prices in 1973 CAUSEDINmATIONTOSOARTOPERCENTINBOTHCOUNTRIES in 1975. In Britain it was still 18 per cent in 1980. In *APANTHEINmATIONWASBOUGHTDOWNTOSINGLElGURES in two years and settled down at below 5 per cent by 1978. The difference lay in the importance of wagecost-push. Japan had a system dubbed, in the UK at the TIME @SYNCHROPAY THATISTOSAYTHATALLWAGEREVISIONS took place on 1 April. Bargaining was company by company, but union and employer federations started negotiations the previous December or November before that, arguing about how big a wage increase the economy could afford negotiations widely reported in the press. Hence, company negotiators entered their local bargaining with some rough idea of what the shunto-sobanTHEGOINGRATEOFINCREASEnWASLIKELYTOBE ANDOFTENWITHTHERECORDOFEARLY SETTLINGCOMPANIES deals as benchmarks. In these circumstances it was NOTTOODIFlCULTFORTHEGOVERNMENTTOGETUNIONSTO RECOGNIZE THAT HIGH INmATION WAS DISRUPTIVE AND THAT WHILE COMPENSATION FOR PAST INmATION WAS LEGITIMATE INCREASESMEANTTOCOMPENSATEFORFUTUREINmATIONSHOULD BE RULED OUT AND THE RATE OF INmATION CONSEQUENTLY reduced. In Britain, on the other hand, there was no synchropay. The railways might settle in January, steel in May, distribution trades in October. In each industry, union NEGOTIATORSDEMANDEDNOTONLYCOMPENSATIONFORINmATIONOVERTHEPREVIOUSYEAR BUTALSOFORTHEINmATIONTHAT EVERYONEEXPECTEDINTHENEXT!NDEACHMAJORINDUSTRYSUNIONSSOUGHTTOGETABETTERDEALTHANTHEINDUS-

OPMF, CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATISM



try which settled a month before. Hence ‘leap-frogging WAGESETTLEMENTSBECAMETHENAMEOFTHEGAME#ENTRAL GOVERNMENT ATTEMPTS TO INmUENCE INDUSTRY BY INDUSTRY settlements through bodies like the National Economic Development Organization or by price freezes or by recOMMENDING@PAYRISENORMSHADLITTLEEFFECT BECAUSENO ONE BELIEVED IN GOVERNMENTS POWER TO BRING INmATION down. 4HEPOINTIS THEN THATINALLTHEMAJORDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIES today, the situation is more like the Japan of the 1970s than "RITAIN OR THE 5NITED 3TATES AT THAT TIME )NmATION WOULD CERTAINLYGALVANIZETODAYSQUIESCENTUNIONS ANDTHEREACTION could be some form of synchropay. And meanwhile, any INCREASE IN WAGES AT THE EXPENSE OF PROlTS COULD BE A GOOD thing, increasing aggregate demand by turning corporate savings into household income. At any rate, wage-cost-push would never reach 1970s levels, and hence little danger of toppling over the edge into HYPERINmATION

F ! SHOCK RISEININmATIONEXPECTATIONSWOULDBEGOOD FORINVESTMENT PARTLYBECAUSEOFAGENERALmIGHTFROM cash, partly because, however people might be on guard against money illusion, the prospect that by buying your raw materials today at price level X with the prospect of selling your products in a year or two YEARS TIME WHEN PRICE LEVELS ARE 8  ALPHA SEEMS attractive when calculations are made, as they usually are, in nominal terms. And if you have to go into debt to buy those raw materials now, your debt will be reduced. MEDICINE TURNING INTO POISON?

First of all, for whom? It is poison from day one for those who ARE OWNERS OF lNANCIAL ASSETS DENOMINATED IN THE NATIONAL



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

currency, because it reduces the purchasing power of their wealth. Paul Krugman who has said much the same thing adds another factor, human psychology and party-political DYNAMICS )VE BEEN THINKING A LOT LATELY ABOUT THE POWER OF doctrines how support for a false dogma can become politically mandatory, and how overwhelming contrary evidence only makes such dogmas stronger and more extreme….. #ONSIDERxTHERECENTHISTORYOFINmATIONSCARES -ORETHANlVEYEARSHAVEPASSEDSINCEMANYCONSERVATIVES started warning that the Federal Reserve, by taking action TO CONTAIN THE lNANCIAL CRISIS AND BOOST THE ECONOMY WAS SETTINGTHESTAGEFORRUNAWAYINmATION!ND TOBEFAIR THAT WASNTACRAZYPOSITIONTOTAKEIN)COULDHAVETOLDYOU it was wrong (and, in fact, I did), but you could see where it was coming from. /VERTIME HOWEVER ASTHEPROMISEDINmATIONKEPTFAILING TO ARRIVE THERE SHOULD HAVE COME A POINT WHEN THE INmAtionistas conceded their error and moved on. In fact, however, few did. Instead, they mostly doubled down on their predictions of doom, and some moved on TO CONSPIRACY THEORIZING CLAIMING THAT HIGH INmATION WAS already happening, but was being concealed by government OFlCIALS Why the bad behaviour? Nobody likes admitting to mistakes, and all of us even those of us who try not to sometimes engage in motivated reasoning, selectively citing facts to support our preconceptions. "UT HARD AS IT IS TO ADMIT ONES OWN ERRORS ITS MUCH harder to admit that your entire political movement got IT BADLY WRONG )NmATION PHOBIA HAS ALWAYS BEEN CLOSELY BOUNDUPWITHRIGHT WINGPOLITICSTOADMITTHATTHISPHO

0AUL+RUGMAN @0OINTSOF.O2ETURN New York Times -AY

OPMF, CENTRAL BANK CONSERVATISM



bia was misguided would have meant conceding that one whole side of the political divide was fundamentally off BASEABOUTHOWTHEECONOMYWORKS3OMOSTOFTHEINmAtionistas have responded to the failure of their prediction by becoming more, not less, extreme in their dogma, which will make it even harder for them ever to admit that they, and the political movement they serve, have been wrong all along.

So, poison for the rich, and poison for obstinate right-wingers. But what about the ordinary citizen whose income is primarily derived from his or her work? 4HEARGUMENTS)HAVEADDUCEDABOVEARElNEFORAPRE GLOBALIZEDECONOMY"UTWHATWOULDBETHECONSEQUENCE of adopting a policy such as I outlined in one of the globalized developed open economies that really exist? Could it have an impact on aggregate demand, or the expectations of aggregate demand, that would increase the rate of growth? Some things are predictable. However strong the assurances that the policy departure has no implications for the value of the stock of bonds that are already in the market, there would be a sell-off of government bonds. How far would it go, and what level would the interest rates for such bonds have to reach for people to buy them back for their short-term yield? #APITALmIGHTOUTOFTHECURRENCYWOULDCLEARLYRAISEINTERest rates. How high would they have to go for capital to start mOODINGINAGAIN!NDWHATEFFECTWOULDTHISHAVEONBANK lending, particularly to small and medium start-ups? !NOTHER EFFECT OF CAPITAL mIGHT WOULD BE DEVALUATION greater possibilities for exports and higher costs for imports. What would be the net effect of that on aggregate demand? 4HE mIGHT FROM THE CURRENCY WOULD HAVE A PARTICULAR EFFECTINCOUNTRIESWITHLARGEGLOBALlNANCIALCENTRESnTHE

70

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

City, Wall Street, Frankfurt, Paris, Hong Kong. How devASTATINGWOULDTHATEFFECTBEFORTHOSECOUNTRIESECONOMIES What would happen to real interest rates? Would they BECOMEPOSITIVE KEEPINGAHEADOFTHEINmATIONRATEORNOT Whether real interest rates increase or not, money illusion would probably ensure that higher nominal interest rates would increase household savings, but to what extent might that subtract from aggregate demand? BE BOLD. TRY IT!

4HOSEAREJUSTSOMEOFTHEQUESTIONSMYAMATEURMINDlNDS unanswerable. Perhaps there now are professional modelbuilders who can give answers. But none of their answers would be as convincing as the results of an experiment, if some government had the boldness, or the desperation to try it. /NETHING)CANASSERTWITHCONlDENCE)TWILLNOTBETHE Japanese government that tries it. In the Ekonomisuto article mentioned above I made sure that my e-mail address was prominently displayed. I received not a single rebuttal or COMMENT EITHERFRIENDLYORHOSTILE*APANSECONOMISTSHAVE lost their taste for argument.

Chapter 4

*!0!.!.$#().! COLLISION COURSE

y Japan used to be a country which, following the British model, had an independent and in principle apolitical civil service, with the power of appointment and promotion kept INCIVILSERVANTSHANDS4HEMAINDIFFERENCEWASTHATIN*APAN civil service careers were usually careers-for-life in the ministry into which they were initially recruited by competitive exam. 4HEREWASLITTLEOFTHESHUFmINGAROUNDFROMMINISTRYTOMINistry as happens in Britain. The permanent secretary at Transport was someone who had been at Transport for the whole of HISCAREER4HISLEDTOASIGNIlCANTDIFFERENCEINLEVELSOFINTELLIGENCEANDEFlCIENCYBETWEENTHEELITEMINISTRIESTHATEVERYone vied to enter, i.e. Finance, MITI, Foreign Ministry and the Police on the one hand, and the less prestigious ministries, Transport, Labour, Health and Welfare, etc. on the other. The other difference was that the civil servants of the elite ministries had a better reputation for intelligence and honesty than the average politician. The resentment this generated led to twenty years of what the Japanese call ‘bureaucratBASHINGHEAVILYSUPPORTEDBYTHEMEDIAANDBYBOTHPOLITICAL parties. This, combined with the increasing number both of politicians and bureaucrats (as well as of business men and

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people in the media) who had spent a couple of years in an American business school or graduate school (the ‘brain WASHEDGENERATION GENERATEDAN!MERICANIZINGTRENDWHICH is still in full swing. The American system in which 3,000 top bureaucrats can be replaced by incoming presidents, is now widely regarded as superior. The present Abe government HASPRESENTEDADRAFTLAW WHICHWILLREQUIRETHEVETTINGBY politicians of the governing party of all civil servants who are candidates for senior positions. But the prospect of such a law (three previous administrations of both the main political parties had presented similar bills but had them timed out, thanks in large part to bureauCRATSDELAYINGTACTICS HASHADASERIOUSEFFECTONTHEWILLINGness of bureaucrats to stand up to politicians. Nowhere is this MOREEVIDENTnANDDISASTROUSLYEVIDENTnTHANINTHElELD of foreign policy, particularly policy towards China and the sovereignty dispute with China over an isolated group of islands, which the Japanese call Senkaku, China and Taiwan call it by a name which in Chinese characters is the same, BUT OFlCIALLYTRANSLITERATEDAS$IAOYU)SLANDSIN"EIJINGAND IN4AIWANAS4IAOYUTAI)TCONSISTSOFlVEWHATARECONVENtionally called islands and three above-water rocks. The picture of the dispute most commonly given by the Western media is of a blameless Japan being threatened by a bullying expansionist China. Actually, on the contrary, the ORIGINSOFTHEDISPUTELIECHIEmYINTHEBELLICOSESTANDTAKEN by an increasingly chauvinist Japan. 4HElRSTOFALONGSERIESOFMISTAKESWASTAKENBYTHEPREvious government under Prime Minister Noda who headed the administration of the Democratic Party of Japan. The Abe administration pursued the same policy line, but for party advantage accuses the DPJ of not having been tough enough. Abe has set up a Special Standing Committee for the Senkaku islands in charge of a cabinet member (whose two other briefs are space technology and science.) That



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Minister, enthusiastically seconded by a like-minded former ARMYOFlCER-0BOTHOFTHEMINTHEIRLATE lFTIES CALLEDTHE Committee together in November 2013 to grill the senior diplomat who had been private secretary to the Prime Minister of the previous Minshuto government. They got him to ADMITTHATTHE&OREIGN/FlCEHADDRAGGEDITSFEETOVERTHE making of a popular video intended to put forcefully to the Japanese people and the world in general, how strong was the Japanese case and strong also the Japanese will to enforce it against the illegal claims of a hostile and predatory China. So what is the Japanese case? The nearest places of undisputed sovereignty to the islands are Naha in Okinawa which ISKMAWAY THECOASTOFMAINLAND#HINAATKMAND Taiwan at 170 km. Geologically, the islands are on the mainland side of the Okinawa Trough, part of the crust of the continental shelf. The height to which the islands rise ranges from 30 to 300 metres. The largest one grows enough grass to host a herd of wild goats, and the islands provide one of the few remaining nesting grounds for albatrosses, and the home of the endangered species, the Senkaku mole. The surrounding, relatively shallow waters provide abunDANT lSHING GROUNDS WHICH MAKE IT WORTHWHILE FOR LARGE #HINESE lSHING BOATS TO UNDERTAKE THE  KM VOYAGE TO come for a week at a time, though it is not clear whether this is or was a purely commercial activity or subsidized by THE#HINESESTATEASAMEANSOFASSERTINGlSHINGRIGHTS/IL reserves in what would be the exclusive economic zone of a sovereign occupier were assessed by the Japanese governMENT IN  AND WHILE NO ACCURATE ASSESSMENT WAS MADE THEYWEREJUDGEDTOBECONSIDERABLE SENKAKU: RECENT HISTORY

It seems sensible to assume that any court such as the InterNATIONAL #OURT OF *USTICE IF IT WERE ASKED TO ADJUDICATE ON



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

*APANAND#HINASCONmICTINGCLAIMSTOSOVEREIGNTY WOULD take into account, only easily documented claims since the nineteenth century rather than the much more disputed and vague references dating back to the fourteenth century. -OREORLESSUNDISPUTEDFACTSAREASFOLLOWS 1885



1893



The Kogas, an enterprising Japanese family, establishes some kind of base in the islands hoping to harvest albatross. They bring the species to the verge OFEXTINCTIONANDTURNTOlSHING!PHOTOGRAPH shows their sizeable bonito processing factory with a couple of dozen locally settled employees, fed and watered by imports (i.e. no freshwater wells available). +OGASASK*APANESEFOREIGNOFlCETODECLARETHEISLANDS *APANESETERRITORYANDRAISEmAG &OREIGNOFlCEREFUSES on the grounds that it would provoke China. Chinese empress issues a degree, permitting/ demanding the collection of certain precious herbs from the islands. No evidence of anybody doing so. *ANUARY *APANS IMPENDING VICTORY IN ITS WAR WITH China becomes certain, Japan declares Senkaku to be terra nullis over which it claims sovereignty. No mention of this in the eventual Shimonoseki ChinaJapan Peace Treaty six months later under which Taiwan became a Japanese colony, (presumably because Japan insisted on the terra nullis assertion) THOUGH IT IN EFFECT ESTABLISHED *APANS UNDISPUTED control over these remote islands. This led, however, TO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE +OGAS BONITO plant. The Kogas were eventually granted formal title to the land they claimed by the southern-most district council of Okinawa. The title, however, was for a thirty-year rent-free lease of what was considered to be state-owned land.



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HAT LEASE EXPIRED )T WAS CONVERTED TO AN ANNUALLY 4 renewable lease for several years, but in 1932 the son of the original bonito-dryer, negotiated an outright purchase of four islands from the Okinawa administration. Total price is not known but the island on which the father had built his plant was bought for the staggeringly small sum of 2,850 yen, about 3 MILLIONYENINTODAYSPRICES  +OGASABANDONTHEISLANDSBECAUSETHEYWEREREFUSED the petrol ration necessary for drying the bonito.  6ICTORIOUS53.AVYUSESONEOFTHEISLANDSOWNEDBY the Kogas as target practice. Kogas eventually establish their ownership rights, even though the Okinawa administration is taken over by US Occupying forces, and in 1950 the US agrees to rent the target island for 11,000 dollars year. 1951 Under the San Francisco Treaty, Taiwan is handed back to China, but the Senkaku, as part of the ‘Nansei 3HOTONORTHOFDEGREESLATITUDEAREGIVENOVERTO 53JURISDICTION 1953 The US Civil Administration of the Ryukyus issued US Civil Administration of the Ryukyus Proclamation  53#!2  WHICH DElNED THE BOUNDARIES OF @.ANSEI 3HOTO ;THE SOUTHWESTERN ISLANDS= NORTH OF  DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE TO INCLUDE THE 3ENKAKUS and give its administration over to the administration governing civil affairs in Okinawa. 1971n4ALKS INTENSIFY FOR THE @REVERSION OF /KINAWA TO Japanese control. The resultant agreement signed 17 June 1971 is called, ‘Treaty on Reversion to 

For a clear exposition of the tangled Taiwan-Senkaku-Okinawa relationship, see Congressional Research Services, (Mark E, Manyin) Senkaku (Diaoyu/Diaoyutai) Islands Dispute: U.S. Treaty Obligations, January 2013.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

*APANOFTHE2YUKYUAND$AITO)SLANDS THUSCLEARLY acknowledging the different origins of US control of the two territories.

!FTERYEARSOFMOBILIZINGAFAITHFUL FOLLOWERMAJORITYTOKEEP Taiwan and not China in the Security Council China seat, THE 53 lNALLY LOST TO THE VOTES OF AN INCREASINGLY RESTIVE Third World. (Albania was the sponsor of the UN General Assembly resolution to admit China and give it the Security #OUNCIL SEAT 4HEN FOLLOWED +ISSINGERS SECRET DIPLOMACY leading up to the 1972 Nixon visit to China. The Chinese, foreseeing a resumption of diplomatic relations with Japan, ALSOMADEANOFlCIALSTATEMENTSETTINGOUTACLAIMTOSOVEReignty over the Diaoyu (aka Senkaku) islands, although until that time Chinese (and Taiwanese) maps had shown the island as Japanese territory, temporarily occupied by the US. 1972

1972

The Japanese Prime Minister goes for talks with Chou %N,AITOESTABLISHDIPLOMATICRELATIONS THUSJUMPING the gun on Kissinger who was still failing to persuade a Taiwan-lobby-dominated Congress. In the event Congress continued to stonewall until Carter resumed diplomatic ties in 1978. Kissinger is on record as saying, at a meeting of American ambassadors in Hawaii in 1972. ‘Of all the treacherous sons of bitches, THE*APANESETAKETHECAKE In the 1972 negotiations to open diplomatic relations, the rival claims to the Senkaku islands were an obvious STUMBLINGBLOCK#HOUPROPOSED@ITISSUCHADIFlCULT matter that I suggest we do not tackle it, but leave THE DISPUTE TO THE WISER HEADS OF LATER GENERATIONS 4HIS AGREEMENT TO @SHELVE THE ISSUE WAS CONlRMED in the negotiations for the 1978 Treaty of Peace and friendship celebrated by a visit of Deng Hsiao Ping to Japan.



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THE QUIESCENT PERIOD

From that point to 2010 the Japanese government studiously observed the shelving agreement. The Koga son having lost interest and being hard up, sold the land to family friends, the Kurihara family, for 38 millon yen. The Kuriharas could afford it, being the proprietors of a sumptuous wedding hall ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF 4OKYO WHICH WAS DOING A mOURISHING business. In 1997, however, after the islands had passed to Kurihara ownership, a group of maverick nationalist Japanese -0SLANDEDONTHEMAINISLANDANDPLANTEDAmAG4HEYHAD NOTSOUGHTTHE+URIHARASPERMISSION&EAROFANASTY#HInese reaction was patent in the Japanese government, but both government and public opinion were divided between those who thought the MPs should be tried for the crime of trespassing, and those who agreed with their unforgiving assertions that there was nothing wrong with Japanese MPs wanting to inspect Japanese territory. It transpired in 2003, that the Japanese government, alarmed at the possibility of a repetition of such incidents had secretly negotiated a lease from the Kuriharas, under which the State paid 23 million yen a year for exclusive control OVER THE +URIHARAS LAND THE CONDITIONS OF THE LEASE TO BE AUTOMATICALLYTRANSFERREDTOANYSUBSEQUENTPURCHASEROFTHE LAND4HEYDIDTHISINORDERTOSTRENGTHENTHEGOVERNMENTS authority in getting the coastguards to prevent any further landings of maverick chauvinists that would cast doubt on THEIROBSERVANCEOFTHE@SHELVINGAGREEMENT THE FIRST SCUFFLES

"Y THE MID NOUGHTIES HOWEVER #HINESE lSHERMEN WERE getting bigger, faster boats and appearing in increasing numbers around the Senkaku and playing cat and mouse games with Japanese coastguard cutters. One day in 2010, a

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Chinese boat trying to escape out to the open sea across the BOWSOFA*APANESECOASTGUARD WASNTQUITEFASTENOUGHAND crashed into the bow of the Japanese ship doing some superlCIALDAMAGE!NALTERNATIVETHEORYISTHATTHE#HINESECAPtain was drunk and rammed the cutter deliberately. One of THE*APANESECUTTERSCREWDIDABREATHTAKING@WILLHEMAKE IT WONTHEMAKEITVIDEOWHICHWASLEAKEDTO9OU4UBE for a week or so.) Breaking a spoken but undocumented agreement with the #HINESETOKEEPTHESESCUFmESQUIETANDNOTSUBJECTTOANYONESJURISDICTION ANATIONALIST*APANESEATTORNEYGENERAL SENT the Chinese boat back but arrested the captain and proposed to prosecute him under Japanese law. The Chinese reaction was vituperative. Demonstrations turned out, or were turned OUT IN MAJOR CITIES #HINA ANNOUNCED A BAN ON EXPORTS OF rare earths which threatened the Japanese semi-conductor industry with extinction. Three days before the captain was due to appear in court, THE*APANESECAVEDINANDRELEASEDHIM(EWASmOWNBACK TOATUMULTUOUS GARLANDEDHEROSRECEPTIONATTHE#HINESE airport. Egg on a lot of Japanese faces. ENTER MISCHIEF

%NTERRIGHTSTAGE *APANSMOSTFAMOUSMAVERICKLOOSECANNONPOLITICIAN)SHIHARA3HINTAROMADEHISlRSTSTEPTOFAME with a teenage sex novel which, at the time, sailed close to the winds of censorship for obscenity. In its most notorious climactic scene a boy with a large erect penis, thrusts it through the paper of the sliding door of a room in which some girls are sleeping. His next, and highly effective, bid for fame was the publication in 1989 of a book entitled The Japan that can say ‘No’./RIGINALLYPUBLISHEDINJOINTAUTHORSHIPWITH-ORITA the president of Sony. It rapidly attracted such notoriety



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THAT -ORITA HASTILY WITHDREW AND SUBSEQUENT EDITIONS HAD Ishihara as sole author.) In it he argued that there was no longer any reason for Japan to defer to the US. The US needed Japan more than Japan needed the US. The US could not even maintain its missile force without spare parts from *APANS TECHNICALLY MORE ADVANCED INDUSTRIES *APAN WOULD soon replace the US as the dominant power in the Western 0ACIlC!MEASUREOF7ASHINGTONSALARMISTHEFACTTHATTHE Pentagon did a private pirated English translation of the book which was distributed widely. I was once offered a copy by the president of a smallish electronic parts manufacturer on the outskirts of Bologna. By this time, Ishihara was a highly popular member of parliament for the Liberal Democratic Party. In 1990 he decided to cash in on his popularity by offering himself for election as the Governor of the Tokyo Metropolis. He won easily and was re-elected for three more terms. In his last term, he got the news that the Kurihara famILYS LUXURY WEDDING HALL WAS SUFFERING FROM THE DECLINING popularity of marriage and the family wanted to sell off its Senkaku land. Ishihara, envisioning a splendid opportunity to cock a snook at China and develop the islands as a tourist resort, entered into secret negotiations with the Kurihara family. His plan was to buy out the Kuriharas with Metropolitan funds and incorporate the territory into the Metropolis. It was a bizarre concept. The Metropolis includes a chain OFISLANDSSTRETCHINGSOUTHINTOTHE0ACIlC BUTTHEDISTANCE between the southern-most island and the Senkaku would still have been over a thousand kilometres, These negotiations came to light before they were concluded in the summer of 2012. The Japanese ambassador in "EIJING ASAFORMERBUSINESSMANANDAVERYRAREEXAMPLE of an ambassador who was not a career diplomat, was anyTHINGBUTPOPULARINTHE*APANESEFOREIGNOFlCE(EGAVEAN interview to the Financial TimesIN"EIJINGINWHICHHESAID

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that all hell would break loose if the Ishihara plan became reality. He was recalled and sacked. Ishihara has powerful friends. "UT THEY DID NOT QUITE DOMINATE IN THE &OREIGN /FlCE nor in the Cabinet of the Noda administration. The decision was made to thwart Ishihara by passing a law expropriating the land still belonging to the Kuriharas and putting it into national ownership. NATIONALIZATION TO THWART ISHIHARA

It is not clear whether this was meant as a direct challenge to China, or whether nobody was smart enough to realize that the Chinese would take this as an assertion of sovereignty, ANDASADELIBERATEBREAKINGOFTHE@SHELVINGAGREEMENT The nationalization law was passed on 11 September 2012 and the Kuriharas got 2.5 billion yen in compensation. The Chinese reaction was furious. Anti-Japanese demonstrations BROKEOUTORWEREBROKENOUTINALLMAJORCITIES&OURDAYS before the law was passed President Xi and Prime Minister Noda had a stand-up encounter on the fringes of an !SIAN 0ACIlCMEETINGIN6LADIVOSTOK INWHICHTHEFORMER EXPRESSEDHISEXTREMEDISPLEASURETOTHELATTER DESPITE.ODAS ATTEMPTTOCONVINCEHIMTHAT*APANSINTENTIONSnTOKEEPTHE islands uninhabited were of the best. At this point a sensible Japanese government would have CLAIMED THE MORAL HIGH GROUND AND ANSWERED 9OU HAVE long acknowledged that Japan has legitimate de facto administrative control of the islands. We believe that Japan has a right to acknowledged sovereignty over the islands. You obviously disagree. Since we are in de facto possession why DONTYOUAPPEALTOTHE)NTERNATIONAL#OURTOF*USTICE7E WILLHAPPILYACCEPTTHATCOURTSJURISDICTION Instead the Japanese government adopted the following EXTRAORDINARYPOSITION



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2.

81

The shelving agreement never existed. The records of the 1972 and 1978 meetings certainly make it clear that the Chinese proposed shelving, but there is no record of any agreement by the Japanese side to the proposal. A dispute over the islands does not exist. They belong to Japan, period. SHEER IMPLAUSIBILITY

It is hard to imagine a more implausible piece of diplomatic chicanery. If the Japanese had not agreed to shelving, how could there have been the atmosphere of champagne euphoria with which the signing of the agreements was greeted? And if the Japanese deny the existence of a shelving AGREEMENT WHY HAD THEY FOR THIRTY lVE YEARS UNTIL THE unstoppable Ishihara came along, prevented any provocative development of the islands? In fact, the eighty-eight-year-old Nonaka Hiromu a former Chief Cabinet Secretary, and former Secretary-General of the Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party (and, though formal biographies do not mention this, scion of a Kyoto outCASTnBURAKUMINFAMILYAVERYRAREBIRDIN*APANESEPOLITICS VISITED"EIJINGTOTRYTOMENDFENCES(ETHEREMADEAPRESS STATEMENTAFTERMEETINGWITH#HINESEOFlCIALS DESCRIBEDBY THE!SAHINEWSPAPER*UNE ASFOLLOWS According to Nonaka, Japan and China reached an agreement to shelve the issue and not make any big waves about IT (E SAID @) SUPPOSE ) AM ONE OF THE LAST LIVING WITnesses and I feel a responsibility to make the truth clear. Prime Minister Tanaka told me this clearly when he came straight from his talks with Chou En Lai to address the Tanaka Faction Youth Seminar which we had organized at (AKONE

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The next day, the Japanese Foreign Minister and the Chief Cabinet Secretary summoned hasty press conferences to say, in effect, that Nonaka was lying. ‘Old man, memory not that RELIABLE ETC3UBSEQUENTLYTHEAUTHOROFTHE-EMORANDUM ONWHICHTHE*APANESE&OREIGN/FlCEBASESITS@NOSHELVING AGREEMENTEVERREACHEDCLAIM HASADMITTEDTODELIBERATELY OMITTINGANYRECORDOF4ANAKASASSENT (ISMOTIVETOSHIELD 4ANAKA FROM mAK FROM HIS STILL PREDOMINANTLY PRO 4AIWAN party. 4HE#HINESEFOREIGNOFlCE FORITSPART CONTINUESTOHEAP abuse on Japan for the position it has taken, and is hurting *APANSVERYLARGESTAKEINTHE#HINESEECONOMY BYEXPORT restrictions, hounding with tax demands etc. A professor of Fudan University in Shanghai writes for an English-language JOURNAL One of the steps China has taken is to send in Chinese ships to the disputed waters for regular patrol and ‘law enforceMENT4HEOBJECTIVEISTOBRINGABOUTDEFACTOJOINTJURISDICTIONANDJOINTPATROLLINGINTHERELEVANTWATERSASAWAYTO DENY*APANSUNILATERAL@CONTROLOFTHEISLANDS"EIJINGWANTS TOFORCE*APANTOCHANGEITS@NOTERRITORIALDISPUTEPOSITION

Another step was to create a National Maritime Affairs Committee (Guojia haiyang weiyuanhui), an inter-agency coordinating body, and to reinforce the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) by merging several separate organizations, to enable Chinese maritime law enforcement capabilities to be used in a more controlled manner while also retaining their effectiveness as an instrument of national power. In the meantime, both Japan and China are trying to beef up the capabilities of their coastguards by using retired military ships. 

HTTPIWJCOJPWJOPENARCHIVES



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FIRST EXACERBATING FACTOR: HISTORY

4HERE ARE THREE EXACERBATING FACTORS 4HE lRST IS THE SO CALLED@REKISHININSHIKIOR@HISTORICALCONSCIOUSNESSPROBlem. There is a tendency, probably accelerating under !BE FOR *APANESE SCHOOL TEXTBOOKS TO PRESENT THE 0ACIlC War as a brave struggle against heavy odds, rather than as a guilty war of aggression. The difference between Japan and Germany in this regard is important. The verdict of THE.UREMBERGTRIALSWASEASILYACCEPTEDIN'ERMANYTHE historical narrative according to which the Nazis were a GANG OF CRIMINALS WHO HIGH JACKED THE 'ERMAN STATE WAS convincing enough. The Tokyo trials, by contrast, condemned and hanged six men who had been acknowledged leaders of Japan, if not revered at least supported by 95 per cent of their people. Moreover, many Japanese believe that any guilt the Japanese might share was wiped out by the gratuitous use of atom bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the war. (ENCE THE SIGNIlCANCE OF THE 9ASUKUNI SHRINE CREATED in the 1870s, to commemorate all those who died for the %MPEROR%VERYSOLDIERKILLEDIN*APANSWARSISCOMMEMOrated with a tablet, and, from the 1970s, so are the six executed war criminals. 0RIME -INISTER +OIZUMIS INSISTENCE ON WORSHIPPING at the shrine was a cause of great friction in relations WITH#HINAAND+OREAINTHElRSTHALFOFTHELASTDECADE Later prime ministers, particularly Fukuda largely, IF TEMPORARILY REPAIRED RELATIONS )N   -0S MADE A MASS VISIT ON  !PRIL AT THE SHRINES SPRING FESTIVAL !BE CONlNED HIMSELF TO SENDING WREATHS OR THE EQUIVALENT UNTIL HE TOO MADE A WORSHIPPING VISIT IN $ECEMBER 0ROTESTS FROM #HINA AND +OREA ABOUT *APANS lack of any sense of war guilt are routine and used for WHAT SEEMS A DELIBERATE STRATEGY TO INmAME ANTI *APANESE sentiment.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

SECOND EXACERBATING FACTOR: TOTALITARIAN SOLIDARITY

The second exacerbating factor is that Japan has become a QUASI TOTALITARIAN COUNTRY IN WHICH CONFORMITY IS ENFORCED not at all by a Gestapo, but by social norms according to which no Japanese should criticize a fellow-Japanese in any matter relating to disputes with foreigners, particularly when abroad. In a feeble attempt to mend matters, there WASAMEETINGATTHEENDOF/CTOBERIN"EIJINGOFTHE 4OKYO "EIJING &ORUM AN ORGANIZATION CREATED NINE YEARS earlier when relations were less fraught. Participants numbered about eighty. Two of the Japanese members whom I know personally are the former prime minister, Fukuda Yasuo, and Akashi Yasushi. Fukuda, when he was prime minister in 2007, made a highly successful visit to China. A scholarly man, he was fully AWARE OF THE WAY #HINA WAS THE MODEL FOR *APANS MODernizing process in the eighth and ninth centuries, and of the background to the decision to stop paying annual tribUTARY VISITS TO #HINA IN  "Y THAT TIME #HINAS CLASSICS HADBECOME*APANSCLASSICS THESOURCEOFPROVERBSINBOTH COUNTRIES EQUIVALENTTOTHE"IBLEAND3HAKESPEAREIN"RITAIN Japan had become a bilingual society. Women wrote poems, essays and novels in traditional Japanese. Men wrote poems and essays (not novels) in Chinese. &UKUDAINCLUDEDINHISVISITATRIPTO#ONFUCIUSBIRTHPLACE 4HERE INHISQUITERESPECTABLECALLIGRAPHY INCHARACTERSOVER one foot tall, he inscribed a banner with a variation on a phrase from the Analects. The original phrase was ‘Respect THEOLDANDKNOWTHENEWWHICHHECHANGEDTO@2ESPECTTHE OLDANDCREATETHENEW!KASHIISALSOAMANOFSOMESTATURE formerly the UN High Commissioner in Bosnia during the civil war and now the Japanese representative engaged IN @0EACE BUILDING 2EHABILITATION AND 2ECONSTRUCTION IN Sri Lanka.



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4HE .IKKEI 3HINBUNS ACCOUNT OF THE MEETING INCLUDES THEFOLLOWING On territorial matters, there was a clash between the JapaNESEGOVERNMENTSCONTENTIONTHATNODISPUTEEXISTS ANDTHE position of the Chinese government, demanding at least an acknowledgement that a dispute does exist. 4HE#HINESESTARTEDBYSAYING)TISAMISTAKETOBELIEVE that the Chinese position is softening on this matter, and went on to ask that the existence of a dispute should be writTENINTOTHE@#ONSENSUSSTATEMENTTOBEISSUEDATTHEENDOF the meeting. The Japanese side refused, and began to despair of ever getting a consensus statement. Eventually, the two sides compromised on an agreement to omit from the statement any mention of the territorial issue whatever. THE OFFICIAL RECORDS

The meeting had split up into sectional meetings from which REPORTSWEREGIVENATTHElNALPLENARY(EREARETHE#HINESE and Japanese reports from the Section dealing with military AFFAIRS In the security dialogue Li La (Director of the Japan Research Centre at the Chinese Academy of Sciences) reported that MANY#HINESEWERESCEPTICALOF0RIME-INISTER!BES@0OSITIVE 0ACIlSM ANDREMARKEDTHAT*APANESEPOLITICIANSSTATEMENTS about history fanned the embers of a general mistrust of *APANSFOREIGNPOLICY*APANESEDELEGATESALSOEXPRESSEDTHEIR CONCERNABOUTTHEINCREASESIN#HINASMILITARYEXPENDITURE and said that China needed to work harder to convince the WORLDTHATITWASTRULYINTENTONMAKINGA@PEACEFULRISE/N the matter of the Senkaku, the Chinese asked on the one hand that the existence of a dispute should be acknowledged by Japan, while emphasizing that any attempt to resolve



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

the issue by force should be eschewed. They also called for building an ocean emergency mechanism to deal with any accidental clash between the Chinese coastguards and the Japanese navy, and said that the establishment of a hot line was of prime importance. They also said that the US-Japan military alliance should do nothing to arouse Chinese doubts and fears, -IYAMOTO 9UJI THE *APANESE PANELLIST FORMER *APANESEAMBASSADORIN"EIJING COMMENTEDONADIFFERENCEIN mentality as between the two countries. Chinese believe that in all discussions there must be trust in the other parTYSGOODFAITH WHEREASTHE*APANESEBELIEVETHATTHROUGH the cumulation of small efforts, one can build up trust. It is this difference which lies at the heart of present problems. He appreciated the way in which both navies were conscious of their proper role in the turbulent situation INTHE7EST0ACIlC ANDEMPHASIZEDTHENEEDFORACRISIS control mechanism to deal with accidental clashes. The Senkaku issue was hard to resolve, but it was necessary to have widespread public understanding to back up decisive political decisions,

The Nikkei ShimbunREPORTHASTHEGALLTOSAY@!LTHOUGHTHIS is supposed to be a non-governmental forum of researchers and retired public servants, it is obvious that the Chinese 'OVERNMENT DICTATES THE POSITION #HINESE DELEGATES TAKE 5NLIKETHEFREE THINKING*APANESE


7HAT ) lND HARD TO UNDERSTAND IS THE FACT THAT BOTH Fukuda and Akashi, who personally share my view that the *APANESEGOVERNMENTSLINEISIDIOTIC ARESTILLWILLINGTOGO along with such nonsense and toe the government line. I suppose you have to be a Japanese to understand the social pressures which force them to do so. A friend who teaches at a leading provincial university writes in his New Year LETTERASFOLLOWS



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2ECENTLY *APANHASGONESOFARTOTHERIGHTnWAYBEYOND CONSERVATISM n THAT SOMEBODY LIKE ME WHO GOES ON TALKing as I am used to talking for the last thirty years is now IN DANGER OF BEING BRANDED AS A @RED ) GET A REAL SENSE OF liberation when I go abroad and see friends who share my SENSEOFFAIRNESSANDMYFEELINGSABOUTEQUALITYANDINEQUALity, without having to excuse myself and point out over and OVERAGAINTHAT)WOULDNTCALLMYSELFALEFT WINGER!BETHE all-powerful, can go and worship at the Yasukuni shrine out OF@CONVICTIONANDNEVERMINDHOWMUCHITSCREWSUPOUR relations with neighbouring countries, teachers who, out of THEIRIDEOLOGICALCONVICTIONSREFUSETOSTANDUPORTOJOININ SINGINGTHENATIONALANTHEM CANBESUMMARILYDISMISSEDn surely I am not the only one who feels suffocated in that kind of atmosphere …… In class, Japanese students, knowing full well that there are #HINESEAND+OREANSTUDENTSINTHECLASS WILLQUITEBLITHELYSAY THINGSLIKE@)HATETHE#HINESEOR@"EFORETHEYSTARTLECTURING us about historical conscience, they should give us our territory BACK)TSASMUCHAS)CANDOTOTRYANDEXPLAINWHATDIDHAPpen in history and try indirectly to get them to understand ….. THIRD EXACERBATING FACTOR: STRENGTHENING OF STRATEGIC MILITARY ALLIANCE AGAINST CHINA

4HETHIRDFACTORISTHESTRENGTHENINGOF*APANSSTRATEGICMILItary alliance against China as its sole potential enemy. !TTHEBEGINNINGOF.OVEMBER *APANHELDTHElRST of its intended-to-be-annual 2 on 2 meetings with Russia (Foreign and Defence Ministers of the two countries). These meetings, warmly encouraged by the State Department and the Pentagon, are an unconcealed attempt to strengthen the CONTAINMENT OF #HINA ! MAJOR POINT OF DISCUSSION AT THE lRST MEETING WAS HOW TO PREVENT THE #HINESE NAVY FROM using in future, as in recent months it has begun to do, the

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Tsugaru Straits between Hokkaido and the Japanese main ISLANDASAMEANSOFGAININGTHEOPEN0ACIlC4HISISASURprising development. It means, in effect, that the Japanese establishment is abandoning its long-standing claims to the two Kurile islands which Japan ceded to Russia in the San Francisco Treaty, even though they were not ‘spoils of WARBUTTERRITORYCEDEDTO*APANBYTREATYACENTURYEARLIER !RITUALREFERENCETO*APANSDETERMINATIONTORIGHTTHISWRONG HASBEENAFEATUREOFPRIMEMINISTERSINAUGURALSPEECHESTO the Diet for decades. Abe omitted it this year. CHINA’S DIPLOMATIC STANCE

If it is hard to comprehend what is going on in Japanese HEADS IT IS EQUALLY DIFlCULT TO ASSESS THE REASON WHY THE #HINESE &OREIGN /FlCE REFUSES EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF A Japanese invitation, to go to the International Court of Justice or the tribunal set up by the Law of the Sea (which they HAVE RATIlED BUT THE 53 3ENATE HAS NOT  #HINESE FRIENDS say it is because they see the ICJ as only for little countries not for Great Powers. Maybe that is the answer. China is CERTAINLYAPROUDANDCONlDENTCOUNTRY AS*APANUSEDTO be until 1990. But, perhaps more probably, China wants to keep the @SHELVING SITUATION FROZEN UNTIL 4AIWAN lNALLY COMES INTO the fold, since Taiwan also has claims on the islands and is CLOSERTOTHEMTHANEITHER*APANOR#HINA$OUBTLESS"EIJING foresees the day when the integration of the Chinese and Taiwanese economies reaches the point where China can use the Hong Kong model and arm-twist Taiwan into agreeINGTOA@ONENATIONTHREESYSTEMSARRANGEMENT4HEMOST DIFlCULTHURDLEFORMANY4AIWANESEWOULDBEFORESWEARING ITSPROlTABLELINKSWITH!MERICAANDITS4AIWANLOBBY BUT despite the vociferous student protests in Taipei against the GOVERNMENTSSNUGGLINGUPTO"EIJINGINTHEBILATERALTALKSOF



*!0!.!.$#().!#/,,)3)/.#/523%

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SPRINGOF  the long-run evolution of Taiwan politics is STEADILYMOVINGINTHATDIRECTION)FITlNALLYHAPPENED THE CURRENTDISCREPANCYBETWEEN#HINASAND4AIWANSCLAIMSTO the Senkaku would disappear, and the prospects for a Chinese victory in any international tribunal would be enhanced. Then they could launch a combined bid for sovereignty of those islands with every chance of success in international courts. That day may not be far distant as those recent talks BETWEENTHE4AIPEIAND"EIJINGGOVERNMENTSSUGGEST So far, the Americans have kept their heads down and played Mr Nice to China. But as soon as, or if ever, America extricates itself from the Middle East and leaves the Israelis to SINKORSWIMASTHEYCHOOSE THE@PIVOTINGOFNAVALSTRENGTHS FROMPERCENT!TLANTIC PERCENT0ACIlCTOVICEVERSA will go ahead, and US-China rivalry rekindle, Meanwhile winning possession of those goats and possibly a few billion barrels of oil cannot possibly be of more importance to either country than good commercial and diplomatic relations between them. As a rough generalization one CANSAYTHATANYCOUNTRYSFOREIGNPOLICYHASTHREEOBJECTIVES 1. 2. 3.

Ensuring trade relationships that improve domestic prosperity Keeping the country safe from foreign enemies Maintaining national pride and prestige giving their Ruritanians reason to feel themselves lucky to have been born in Ruritania.

It seems that the dispute will continue to fester as long as the bellicose politicians and the brow-beaten diplomats of both countries continue to give absolute priority to that third OBJECTIVE 

!NYNEWSPAPER&EBRUARY

Chapter 5

JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA

y The particular kind OF @SILENCE DEALT WITH IN THE LAST CHAPTERCANBELABORIOUSLYDElNEDASFOLLOWS@)NAWORLD DIVIDEDINTOPOWERBLOCSORSPHERESOFINmUENCE IECOLlections of states with closer ties (militarily or diplomatically more supportive of each other than with any state outside the bloc) the tendency for the press of each state is to gloss over facts which might discredit states which are fellow members of its bloc, and to emphasize the bad faith, aggressive or imperialist, etc. tendencies of other STATESWITHWHICHTHATSTATEMAYBEINDISPUTE)NTHECASE JUSTDESCRIBEDOFTHE3ENKAKUISLANDS OFCOURSE THISMEANS ignoring the actual sources of the dispute and interpret it as a case of a blameless Japan being harassed by big-bully China A very similar case is the long-standing dispute about abductees, (young Japanese youths kidnapped by North Koreans in the years 1977 to1980) between Western ally Japan and the once China bloc member, now independent @ROGUESTATE .ORTH+OREA (EREISTHElRSTPARAGRAPHOFANEDITORIALINThe New York Times, 12n!PRIL

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North Korea signalled to Japan early this month that it is prepared to investigate the festering issue of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the ‘70s and ‘80s. This is a surprising turnabout. It would be good if this North Korean move brought to an end the long-suffering ordeal of the Japanese family members of the abductees. WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED

Poor old Japan, victim of the intransigence of the rogue state. 4HE FACTS ARE QUITE OTHERWISE AS IS WELL ESTABLISHED AMONG those who followed the events which preceded and followed the attempted rapprochement between Japan and North +OREA NAMELY 0RIME -INISTER +OIZUMIS VISITS TO 0YONGYANG lRSTON3EPTEMBER RESULTINGINANAGREEMENT to establish diplomatic relations the following month, and SECONDLYON-AY TRYINGTORETRIEVEWHATCOULDBE RETRIEVEDFROMTHATORIGINALUNFULlLLED AGREEMENT Basic facts are not in dispute. As Kim Jong Il personally ACKNOWLEDGEDDURING+OIZUMISlRSTVISIT @RADICALADVENTURISMANDILL DISCIPLINEINAFACTIONOF.ORTH+OREASSECURITY services had led them to bring submarines close to the shore and kidnap a number of teenagers who were later trained to become teachers of the Japanese language to Korean spies. Those who were still alive were said to be mostly married and settled down as North Korean middle-class citizens. For some years previously, these kidnapping incidents had been known in Japan, though hotly denied by North Korea. 4HEYWERETHESUBJECTOFFREQUENTCONTROVERSY4HERULING ,IBERAL$EMOCRATIC0ARTYHELPEDINTHECREATIONANDlNANCINGOFA@+IDNAPPEE&AMILIES!SSOCIATION+AZOKUNO+AI and Diet Members themselves created a ‘Kidnappees ResCUE!SSOCIATION3UKUU+AI WHILEMANYMEMBERSOFTHE 3OCIALIST0ARTYCLAIMEDTOBELIEVE.ORTH+OREASDENIALSAND TOATTRIBUTETHE,$0SPOSITIONTORABIDANTI #OMMUNISM

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!KEYlGUREINTHEEVENTSTHATFOLLOWEDWASANEXCEEDingly able Japanese diplomat, Tanaka Hitoshi. He was a straight thinker and straight talker, a man of integrity and enterprise. I used to seek him out at Japanese Embassy parties when he was posted to London in the early 1990s, because one could have a good combative argument with him about Japanese foreign policy, with none of the vacuous platitudes beloved of most of his colleagues. By 2001 he had become Asia Bureau Chief at the Japanese ForEIGN/FlCE ANDHERESOLVEDTOTRYTOCLEARUPTHEKIDNAP controversy which was poisoning the possibility of any kind of useful relationship with North Korea. It was also a moment when the so-called Agreed Framework, negotiATEDBETWEENTHE53AND.ORTH+OREAIN WASMANIfestly coming apart. 4HAT@!GREED&RAMEWORKWASWHATSEEMEDATTHETIME a good bargain. The DPRK agreed to abandon work on a nuclear deterrent and in return the United States, Japan and South Korea would provide compensation via a newly created organization called KEDO, the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, the main mission of which was TOPROVIDEFORTHElNANCINGANDSUPPLYOFA HEAVYOILSTO North Korea and (b) the construction of two light-water NUCLEARREACTORSTOREPLACE+OREASGRAPHITEMODERATEDREACtors capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium) by the year 2003. As a commentator at the timeSAID This was an agreement carefully crafted with hefty political and legal connotations, perhaps more so than other similar executive agreements. US President Bill Clinton had to 

Young Whan Kihl, U.S.-DPRK NUCLEAR ACCORD AND +%$/ WWWLAWCOLUMBIAEDUCOURSE?3?,?.ORTH Korea materials/210205-Kihl.pdf.

JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA

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write a separate letter of assurance for the nuclear accord at the insistence of the North Korean delegate. To certify the genuine intention of its implementation, Bill Clinton addressed a letter of assurance to the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il which became an integral part of the nuclear deal.

However, by 2001, it was obvious that those nuclear reacTORSWERENOTGOINGTOBEBUILT CHIEmYBECAUSETHESTRENGTH of anti-communist ideology in Congress and in the Japanese ,IBERAL$EMOCRATIC0ARTYWASPREVENTINGANADEQUATESUPPLY of funds, and partly because of intelligence reports which suggested that Korea was secretly continuing its work on nuclear weapons and missile technology. THE SECRET NEGOTIATIONS

Tanaka set about trying to rescue what could be rescued from the Agreed Framework and at the same time create a more enduring basis for peace in North-East Asia. He set up SECRETTALKSIN"EIJINGWITH.ORTH+OREANDIPLOMATS)RECALL REALIZING JUST HOW HE WAS ENVIED OR DISLIKED BY HIS FELLOW diplomats of the pro-America school when one of them told me with horror that he had met Tanaka at the airport when HEWASSETTINGOFFFOR"EIJINGONONEOFHISINCOGNITOVISITS ANDHEWASNTEVENWEARINGANECKTIE
4HERESULTOFTHESENEGOTIATIONSWASTHESTAGINGOFTHElRST Koizumi visit. It had been agreed that there would be an exchange of apologies. Koizumi would apologize for all the evils of colonialism and Kim Jong Il would acknowledge that the kidnappings had occurred, and apologize for them. Meanwhile details would be provided of all the known kidnappees most, but not all of the 17 on the Japanese list (some might well have gone underground in Japan for personal reasons) and including one whose kidnapping nobody in Japan



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

HADAPPARENTLYNOTICED/NLYlVEWERESAIDTOBESTILLALIVE but some information was supplied on those who had died. Japan, for its part acknowledged its sin in making Korea a colony and promised reparations. Kim was also to continue to receive aid in the form of imports of grain, medical supPLIES ETCWHICHHADBEENSTEPPEDUPAFTERTHEmOODSAND FAMINESOFnANDRANATMILLIONIN BUTWAS particularly anxious that Koizumi should convey the message to the United States that the DPRK was anxious to return to the Agreed Framework, and that its continued work on nuclear weapons was simply a necessary measure for selfdefence caused by American hostility. 4HE!MERICANREACTIONTO4ANAKASEFFORTSWASLARGELYONE of indifference. Everyone in Washington was preoccupied WITH)RAQANDTHEWICKEDNESSOFFORMERALLY3ADDAM(USSEIN +OIZUMIS GOVERNMENT IS CERTAIN TO HAVE KEPT THE 5NITED States informed about the secret talks that set the stage for the 0YONGYANGSUMMIT!CTUALNOTIlCATIONOFTHE*APAN $02+ agreement to convene the summit probably came soon after ITHADBEENlNALIZED$EPUTY3ECRETARY!RMITAGEAND5NDER Secretary of State for International Security Affairs Bolton undoubtedly learned of this during their late August visits to Tokyo. Like their colleagues in Washington, they politely WELCOMED+OIZUMISINITIATIVEWITHEXPRESSIONSOFSUPPORT words of caution and polite disbelief. After all, few in Washington could believe that, after twelve years of frustrated expectations and hesitation, yet another round of secret talks between Tokyo and Pyongyang could yield such a dramatic outcome. 

HTTPJAPANDAILYPRESSCOMKIM JONG IL WANTED KOIZUMI TO TELL US-that-nuclear-program-was-their-fault-1532335/.  Th. C. Kenneth Quinones, ThE"USH!DMINISTRATIONS2EACTIONTO

0RIME-INISTER+OIZUMIS0YONGYANG3UMMIT

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As it happened, the promise that detailed talks would begin the following month to clear up the details for the resumption of diplomatic relations was greatly over-optimistic. Visceral anti-communism in the Liberal Democratic Party spurred on BY THEIR !MERICAN COUNTERPARTS PLUS THE lERCE OPPOSITION from the Abductee Family Association and the Diet member Recue Association, made the negotiations over the provision of the aid that had been promised, and over the sum of reparations for Japanese colonial rule (it had been agreed that the sum should be reduced by the value of the infrastructure, mines and factories that North Korea inherited from the Japanese) dragged on, but Tanaka persisted and hoped to be more successful with a second Koizumi visit which would deal more openly on the abductee issue. 4HE RESULT WAS AN AGREEMENT TO GIVE THE lVE ABDUCTEES acknowledged to be still alive a two-week holiday in Japan to meet their relatives. It appears that since they all had livelihoods and family in Korea, they would be happy to go back at the end of that holiday. PROMISE BROKEN

What exactly happened in those two weeks is not entirely clear, but the head of the Abductee Family Association Mrs 9OKOTAFACEDWITHTHEENDINGOFTHELAVISHlNANCINGSUPplied to her family) refused to believe that her daughter had died, and insisted that she was still a living secret prisoner, 3HEWASOFCOURSESUPPORTEDBYTHE$IETMEMBERS!BDUCTEE Rescue Association. They succeeded in creating a media STORM DEMANDINGTHATTHElVECAREFULLYSHIELDEDFROMCONtact with any non-governmental source) should be allowed to stay in Japan. Reports were put about that this was what HTTPCKQUINONESCOMWP CONTENTUPLOADS   sekai-shuho.pdf.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

THElVEWANTED INCLUDINGTHEWOMANWHOWASMARRIEDTO an American Vietnam deserter who would immediately be arrested if he set foot in Japan and the couple who were abducted together and had since married and had children in Korea. Tanaka, who negotiated the agreement argued that the overwhelmingly important consideration was to demonstrate that Japan was a trustworthy nation that kept its promises. But the present Prime Minister, Abe, who was then Chief Cabinet Secretary, saw advantage in responding to popular hysteria. No truly democratic country could send its citizens back to a communist prison-house. In his later (ghosted) BOOK@!"EAUTIFUL#OUNTRY  he boasts that it was he with his bold decisiveness, and nobody else who took the decision TOKEEPTHElVEIN*APAN 4HEREAFTERTHEHOSTILESTATUSQUOIN*APAN$02+RELATIONS WAS IN !BE AND HIS FRIENDS VIEW SATISFACTORILY RESTORED )N SUBSEQUENT TALKS NOTABLY THE #HINA 53 LED 3IX .ATION (Party) talks which were held in an attempt to monitor and PUTACURBON.ORTH+OREASNUCLEARASPIRATIONS *APANESEDELegates have had on their agenda, little else besides demanding that North Korea should reveal full details of other abductees thought to be still alive. NORTH KOREA’S SPORADIC ATTEMPTS AT RESOLUTION

!MONG.ORTH+OREASRESPONSESTOTHESEDEMANDS 1.



After long negotiations between Japan and the Pentagon produced a pardon for the American deserter, he was allowed to go to Japan, as were the children of the married couple.

Abe Shinzo, Utsukushii kuni e "UNSHUNSHINSHO 

JAPAN AND NORTH KOREA

2.

97

An invitation to the parents of the deceased Yokota Megumi (who were leading lights in the Families Association), to come to North Korea to meet their grandchildren. An invitation consistently refused by the 9OKOTASWITHTHEGOVERNMENTSENCOURAGEMENT ONTHE grounds that they would be unable to talk freely in the North Korean prison house. )N AFTERTENYEARS THE*APANESEGOVERNMENTAPPARently gave way to humanitarian sentiment and relaxed their pressure to refuse the invitation on the grounds that the Yokotas at eighty-one and seventy-eight had not much longer to live. Mrs Yokota was doubtless also tired OF BEING A MEDIA STAR AS HEAD OF THE !BDUCTEES &AMILY Association. Secret negotiations, beginning in January  lNALLYRESULTEDINTHEMEETINGONNEUTRALGROUNDIN 5LAN"ATORnTHEMEETINGWHICHINSPIREDTHENYT editorial with which this chapter began.

3. Providing the ashes of Yokota Megumi, the Japanese government commissioned a DNA examination by a Japanese scientist who declared that they were fake, ANDINCLUDEDDOGSBONES"RITAINSMOSTRENOWNED SCIENTIlCJOURNAL Nature SUBSEQUENTLYPUBLISHEDAN ANALYSISOFTHAT*APANESEEXPERTSREPORT  concluding that his analysis was full of holes. Meanwhile, in Japan every effort was made to keep Rachi Mondai, the kidnapping issue, alive and in the centre of the PUBLICS ATTENTION %VERY GOVERNMENT HAS HAD A MINISTER with the remit to further negotiations, aimed at returning THE ALLEGED HIDDEN ABDUCTEES /N THAT MINISTERS WEBSITE 

David Cyranoski, ‘DNA is burning issue as Japan and Korea clash over kidnaps, cremated remains fail to prove fate of Japanese girl abducted IN Nature,  &EBRUARY  HTTPWWWRACHIGOJPJPMEGUMIGAIYOUHTML

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ONE CAN lND DETAILS OF ALL HIS PRESS CONFERENCES AND OFFERS OFA MINUTECARTOON@SOB DOCUMENTARYOFTHETRAGICLIFE of Yokota Megumi (whose parents recently went to Ulan Bator) in any one of nine languages. Determination to leave NO STONE UNTURNED TO lND MISSING HIDDEN ABDUCTEES IS A STANDARD PARAGRAPH IN EVERY PRIME MINISTERS PARLIAMENT opening speech (shoshin hyoumei). ‘Concerning the issue of the abductees, my cabinet will work to the utmost of its abilITYTOSOLVETHEPROBLEMCOMPLETELYnTHESHORTESTPARAGRAPH in the whole speech.50 Myths about the talks recently generated by right-wing Japanese such as Yoshiko Sakurai, particularly one based on the revelations of a prominent North Korean deserter in 201151 are consistent with the story that the current Prime Minister Abe, who was present at the talks was the tough one who got the best deal from the North, though sabotaged by the diplomat Tanaka who was the softie. He also sinned by not providing any detailed report of his preliminary negotiations to set up the summit. Abe has since hounded Tanaka with weird Facebook pronouncements such as the following, apparently in response to an interview Tanaka gave in the Mainichi newspaper which has since been taken down FROMTHEINTERNET The former diplomat Tanaka Hitoshi has given an interview in the MainichiINWHICHHETALKSABOUTMYGOVERNMENTSFOREIGNPOLICY)TRECALLEDFORMETHEEVENTSINTHEOFlCEOFTHE Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary eleven years ago when we HAD TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO GIVE IN TO .ORTH +OREAS DEMANDSANDSENDBACKTHElVEABDUCTEES(EARGUEDSTRONGLY THATWESHOULDCOMPLYWITH.ORTH+OREASDEMANDSRATHER THAN LET THEM STAY IN *APAN UNTIL THEIR CHILDREN COULD JOIN 50

15 October 2013. HTTPENYOSHIKO SAKURAIJP

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THEM)RISKEDMYJOBBYINSISTINGTHATTHElVESHOULDSTAYAND GOT0RIME-INISTER+OIZUMISAPPROVAL3OWEKEPTTHEMIN Japan. As one might expect this decision was criticized in the Mainichi newspaper and a section of the media. Since then it HASBECOMECLEARTHATALOTOF.ORTH+OREASSTATEMENTSON the issue as relayed through Tanaka were fabricated nonsense. )F4ANAKAHADHADHISWAYTHOSElVEABDUCTEESANDTHEIRCHILDRENWOULDSTILLBESHUTUPIN.ORTH+OREA!DElNITIVEFAILure in diplomacy, or even worse. He also failed to leave any record of his dealings with North Korea. That man is comPLETELYUNQUALIlEDTOTALKABOUTDIPLOMACY52

The sad thing is that nobody seems willing to defend Tanaka ANDHISINTEGRITY/NEOFHISFORMERCOLLEAGUES SUFlCIENTLY PROMINENT TO BE INVITED TO WRITE ON *APANS RELATIONS WITH North Korea for an American symposium,53 sums up his very BRIEFDISCUSSIONOFTHEABDUCTEEISSUETHUS ;)T WAS= A REmECTION OF A NEW SENSE OF NATIONAL IDENTITY )T seemed appropriate for the state to protect its citizens and THUSPROTECTTHENATIONSHONOURANDIDENTITY

@(ONOURISPRECISELYWHATITDIDNOTPROTECT!ND@PROTECTINGTHEABDUCTEElVEIS ASWEHAVESEEN ACURIOUSWAYOF describing the refusal to let them go back to North Korea. RECENT STIRRINGS

7HAT RECENTLY BROUGHT ABOUT THE lRST NON SECRET MEETing between North Korean and Japanese representatives in &ACEBOOK  *UNE  HTTPBLOGGOONEJPGOOHTE a2df732cff8e9ef9ca0eb7debdb58792. 53 Kazuhiko Togo in Kent Calder and Francis Fukuyama, East Asian Mulilateralism, Johns Hopkins Press, 2008. 52

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"EIJINGON-ARCHTHElRSTFORMONTHSISUNCLEAR but they seem to have been a by-product of the arrangements FOR THE 9OKOTAS 5LAN "ATOR MEETING 4HE .ORTH +OREANS NEEDSOMERELAXATIONOF*APANSUNILATERALSANCTIONS SUCHAS LIFTINGTHEBANON+OREASBIGGESTCARGOSHIPENTERING*APANESEPORTSTHATWASIMPOSEDIN)NRETURNTHEYHINTED THATTHEYMIGHTNOLONGERTURNADEAFEARTO*APANSINSISTENCE on further investigations into the possible presence in Korea of missing Japanese whom Japanese hawks swear must be HIDDENIN.ORTH+OREAnANISSUEWHICH.ORTH+OREAHAS insisted for ten years had been closed after the last round of investigations had yielded nothing. The only solid agreement ATTHOSElRST-ARCHTALKSWASTOMEETAGAIN The reporting of this issue suggested that the Abe government, now no longer able to talk either to South Korea or to China, were QUITEHAPPYTOSEERELATIONSWITH.ORTH+OREAALSORETURNTO the deep freezer. The only thing that would bother them would be if The New York Times started castigating them for their obstinately self-righteous way of conducting their foreign affairs.



HTTPWWWNHKORJPNEWSHTMLT html.

Chapter 6

A NEW BEGINNING?

y Why is nobodyMUCHBOTHEREDABOUT.ORTH+OREASNUCLEAR weapons and missiles? Because everyone knows that, however rogue a state it might be in which dear leaders execute their uncles, any North Korean politician or general whose lNGERISANYWHERECLOSETOTHENUCLEARTRIGGER ISFULLYAWARE that if they ever used a nuclear weapon, even against nonnuclear Japan or South Korea, Pyong Yang would become a pile of rubble within hours. And why is the Western world so exercised about the likelihood of Iran developing a reliable nuclear deterrent? Because ITWOULDDESTROY)SRAELSMONOPOLYOFNUCLEARWEAPONSINTHE region and reduce the usefulness of its formidable chemical and bacteriological arsenal. To be sure, the Obama tactic of postPONINGTHEDAYWHEN)RANISREADYTO@OUTITSNUCLEARCAPACITY a six-month freeze and talks is much superior to unleashing )SRAELSITCHTOBOMB -OSSADSASASSINATIONOF)RANIANSCIENTISTS ORTHEUSEOFCYBERWARFARETOSCREWUP)RANSCENTRIFUGES "UT@POSTPONINGISGENERALLYSEENASWHATITISALLABOUT ‘50n50 chance of getting an agreement that would reassure )SRAEL /BAMA SAID RECENTLY 55 QUALIFYING HIS OPTIMISM 55

New York Times, 9 December 2013.

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I doubt if any of the Western negotiators expects that the millions of dollars they will spend on all those negotiations during those six months of talks will persuade Iran to renounce its ambition to get a handful of functioning nuclear-tipped missiles sooner or later. As compared with an Israeli bombing the talks could well actually hasten the day when Iran announces its withdrawal from the NPT. Former President !HMADINEJANMAYHAVETAKENABACKSEAT BUTITISOBVIOUSLY highly improbable that any amount of relief from (leaky) sanctions will persuade the sweet-talking Rouhani to accept as permanent a situation in which Israel could obliterate Teheran but Iran could only lob a few conventional missiles into Israel. And would it be a catastrophe if Iran got a few bombs? The real catastrophe would be if Israel bombed Iran the moment Mossad learned that the completion of an effective weapon was imminent. But a nuclear-armed Iran would pose no immediate danger to anybody for the same reason as North Korea keeps its missiles in their silos. If Iran went nuclear, Saudi Arabia and perhaps Turkey, even Egypt if it ever gets a stable government, would doubtless follow suit. "UTJUSTASBETWEEN)NDIAAND0AKISTAN THENUCLEARCAPABILity of both sides serves to restrain their hostile Kashmir skirmishes, there are good grounds for thinking that the Middle East with its on-going, indeed increasingly bloody, Sunni3HIITE AND *EWISH JIHADIST CONmAGRATIONS AND THE RELENTLESS RIVALRYOFTHE53AND2USSIAFORREGIONALINmUENCE WOULD be more peaceful with three or four nuclear states than with one. Deterrents do deter. The greatest irony of the whole situation is that the NonProliferation Treaty, invoked by the United States and its allies as legitimate grounds for imposing sanctions on Iran, ENDORSEDBYTHE3ECURITY#OUNCILTOPROTECT)SRAELS7-$ monopoly, is a treaty in which Israel has always refused to take part.

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Of course the principle enshrined in the UN Charter @EQUAL RIGHTS FOR x LARGE AND SMALL STATES HAS LONG CEASED to have any practical meaning, but the way in which the might of the United States can be mobilized by Israel against )RANMUSTSURELYSEEMUNJUSTTOANYIMPARTIALOBSERVER9ET HOWOFTENDOESONESEETHATINJUSTICECOMMENTEDONINTHE Western media? "UT FORGETTHEARGUMENTTHATTHESITUATIONISUNJUST*UStice is very much in the eye of the beholder. Think of CanADASSTATEMENTATTHElRSTPREPARATORYMEETINGFORTHE Review Conference of the NPT. It explained that it voted against a resolution urging work towards a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East ‘because it unfairly singled out Israel by calling for its accession to the Treaty while failing to address serious non-compliance issues by States in the region, in particular the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Syrian Arab 2EPUBLIC )FJUSTICEISNOTATISSUE WHATABOUTSTRATEGY7HATABOUT THEIDEATHATOVERANDABOVETHEJOSTLINGFORPOSITIONSINTHE power ranking, there is a common interest, shared by all states, in minimizing the chance that nuclear weapons should EVER BE USED IN THAT JOSTLING AND THAT THE .04 FOR ALL ITS mAWS ISSTILLTHEBESTWAYOFDOINGTHAT The argument that the safest way of ensuring peace was to GIVETHElVEVETO WIELDINGMEMBERSOFTHE3ECURITY#OUNcil a monopoly of nuclear weapons, and the ballistic means of their delivery, never was very convincing, even when the US and the USSR paused in their absurd cold war missile race to preserve their shared privileges by negotiating the NPT. That argument was always opposed by a dissident minority of American political scientists, notably Kenneth 

Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons NPT/CONF.2015/PC.I/9, 3 May 2012.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

Waltz57 and Thomas Schelling,58 more recently by John Mueller,59 that in fact proliferation could be the better road to peace. They anticipated what later came to be accepted as the reason why the once-feared US-USSR nuclear exchange never happened, and we all slept peacefully in our beds after THElRSTGREATTESTOFTHE#UBANCRISIS NAMELYTHEDOCtrine of mutually assured destruction, MAD. Waltz argued that the probability of nuclear weapons being actually used would be reduced if any state that did not want to be a big POWERS CLIENT WERE ALLOWED TO HAVE THEM $ETERRENTS DO deter. Clearly the NPT has passed its sell-by date. It has already BEEN mAGRANTLY CONTRAVENED BY !MERICAS NUCLEAR SUPPLY AGREEMENTWITH)NDIAPARTOF!MERICASANTI #HINESESTRATEGY AND ITS ONLY LIKELY FUTURE USE IS TO JUSTIFY AN )SRAELI OR American attack on Iran. ENTRENCHED STALEMATE

4HOUGH THE .04 WAS PROLONGED INDElNITELY INSTEAD OF REQUIRING RENEWAL AND NEW SIGNATURES EVERY DECADE IT HAS 2EVIEW #ONFERENCES EVERY lVE YEARS WITH THREE Preparatory Conferences in the interval. Why has there been no move to scrap the treaty? The answer becomes clear when one reads the proceedings of the QUINQUENNIAL 2EVIEW #ONFERENCES OR OF THE THREE 57

Kenneth N. Waltz, The Theory of International Politics, 1979, and his last ARTICLE @7HY)RANSHOULDGETTHEBOMB Foreign Affairs, July-August 2012. 58 Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, Harvard University Press,  59 *OHN-UELLER @!TOMIC/BSESSION.UCLEAR!LARMISMFROM(IROSHIMA TO!L 1AEDA 

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Preparatory Committees which precede each Review. The conferences are clearly polarized between the nuclear states and the nuclear have-nots, with the latter showing varying degrees of militancy, depending on the closeness OF THEIR TIES TO THE NUCLEAR lVE ! NUMBER OF CAUCUSES have been formed among members, all of which are recognized as having the right to speak. Thus, Iran at the second preparatory conference for the 2015 Review, gave two speeches, one for itself and one on behalf of the Non-Aligned Movement of which it holds the chair until 2015. (A grouping which has lost the prominence it had in the days of its founders, Nehru, Nasser, Tito, etc. but can still get 150 countries to send representatives to its occasional summits.) Other such bodies are the New Agenda Group formed in 2000 to pressure the nuclear powers into commitments to disarm, NPDI, (the Nuclear Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative), the Vienna Group of 10, Opanal (the Latin American and Caribbean countries that have signed the nuclear-free zone agreement) as well as bodies which function for other purposes than campaigning within the NPT meetings such as the Arab League. All of these bodies are inspired by resentment at the nuclear divide and call for the Nuclear Five actually to implement the articles of the NPT which call for reduction and eventual elimination of all nuclear arsenals. One can understand the resentment when one reads, for example, THE JOINT STATEMENT OF THE &IVE TO THE  MEETING OF the 2015 preparatory committee. Having recorded that the US and Russia had agreed to a future limit of 1550 deployed war heads each, that Britain had reduced its arsenal to 250 and France to 300 and China, though not specifying any numbers, declared that its arsenal is limited to the minimum means of reprisal, it then goes on to SAY



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

We recall the unprecedented progress and efforts made by the nuclear-weapon States in nuclear arms reduction, disARMAMENT CONlDENCE BUILDINGANDTRANSPARENCY ANDNOTE with satisfaction that stocks of nuclear weapons are now at far lower levels than at any time in the past half-century.

)T IS AMAZING THAT /BAMAS 0RAGUE SPEECH OF !PRIL  envisioning a nuclear-free world, was generally, at least in the Western press, greeted with enthusiasm rather than with the derision its hypocrisy deserved. 3O TORETURNTOTHEEARLIERQUESTIONWHYDONONEOFTHESE ACTIVISTBODIESNOTQUESTIONTHEUSEFULNESSOFTHE.044HE answer is that they are so intent on getting the Big Five to honour their commitments under the treaty that to criticize the NPT itself would be inconsistent. BREAKING THE LOG-JAM

4HEREARESTILLIN7ESTERNFOREIGNOFlCESSOMEPEOPLEWHO GIVE THOUGHT NOT JUST TO FURTHERING THEIR OWN COUNTRYS interests but also to creating a more rational and peaceful world order, though far fewer than in the heady days after the Second World War when people like Henry Wallace fought for a more open and transparent set of nuclear controls against the Bernard Baruchs who were more intent on perpetuating American nuclear dominance. Today there are far fewer people who try to ‘think for MANKIND  but they are still not an extinct race. They are most likely to be found in such countries as those of the 

!PHRASE)lRSTHEARDINTHEINAUGURALLECTUREAT3USSEXOF0ROFESSOR François Duchêne. He had been the right-hand man of Jean Monnet and his lecture dwelt on the difference between hard and soft power, THOUGHWITHOUTACTUALLYUSINGTHOSETERMSSUBSEQUENTLY@PATENTEDBY Joseph Nye. See Obituary, The Guardian, 22 July 2005.

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Vienna Group of 10 formed in 1980 (Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden). As the Middle Eastern situation grows increasingly tense, and the total failure of the 7ESTSINTERVENTIONSIN)RAQ !FGHANISTANAND3YRIABECOMES increasingly acknowledged, there must be many more peoPLEINTHOSECOUNTRIESWHOSEEKTHE@NEWBEGINNINGTHATWAS promised by Obama in his Cairo speech of June 2009. Let them act together to make that new beginning and LEAVE THE JOB OF SNAPPING AT THE HEELS OF THE "IG &IVE TO bodies like the Non-aligned Movement. The steps that they MIGHTTAKEARESOMETHINGLIKETHIS 1.

Immediate announcement of their intention to withdraw from the NPT after the 2015 Review Conference. 2. Immediate convening of an expert committee to begin work on drafting a new Nuclear Weapons Control Treaty which shall aim to, (a) Establish an enhanced system of IAEA inspection of ALLTHEWORLDSNUCLEARWARHEADS INCLUDINGSYSTEMS of targeting deployed weapons, (b) Make adhesion to the Treaty compulsory for all states, with heavy sanctions for any that refuse to JOIN C !LLOW ANY STATE WHICH FEELS SUFlCIENTLY INSECURE ORSUFlCIENTLYANXIOUSTOENHANCEITSSTATUSINTHE WORLD PECKING ORDER TO WANT TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR weapons to do so.

If such a regime were in place there would doubtless emerge ASERIESOFBILATERAL TRILATERALORQUADRILATERAL@NUCLEARUMBRELLA AGREEMENTSWHEREBYNON NUCLEARSTATESAREPROMISEDRETALIation by proxy if they are ever attacked. The realization that something of the sort is necessary, and THAT)SRAELANDHER@MYCOUNTRYRIGHTORWRONGSUPPORTERSIN

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the US should not be allowed to obstruct it, is growing in the US. The American Studies Association recently announced a boycott of all collaborations with Israel.)NTHElERCEBLOGging debate about academic freedom which resulted, David 0ALUMBO ,IU APROFESSORAT3TANFORDWROTE People who truly believe in academic freedom would realize that protesting the blatant and systemic denial of academic freedom to Palestinians, which is coupled with material deprivation of a staggering scale, far outweighs concerns we in the West might have about our own rather privileged academic freedoms.

There are other constituencies in the United States which would back such moves as I have suggested, apart from the probably weakening Israeli stranglehold on US policy. One is the community of military strategists. To take one example, the National Bureau of Asian Research, an establishment-blessed think tank, has this to say about the US talk of ABOLISHINGNUCLEARWEAPONSFROMTHEEARTH It is odd that statesmen like the Gang of Four and leaders like President Obama …… peddle such escapist solutions at this JUNCTURE IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS 4O CHASE SUCH A CHIMERA amid continuing interstate competition and the prospect of MORENUCLEARPOWERSWORLDWIDEISMORETHANMERELYAFOOLS ERRANDITISACTUALLYADANGEROUSDISTRACTIONFROMTHEMORE urgent tasks of ensuring that nuclear weapons remain reliable, survivable, safe, and secure and thereby preclude actual use. 

Boycott by Academic Group Is a Symbolic Sting to Israel, NYT, 17 December 2013.  !SHLEY * 4ELLIS @4HE %NDURING 2EALITY OF .UCLEAR 7EAPONS IN NBR, Strategic Asia 2013n14: Asia in the Second Nuclear Age 

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Such constituencies may be growing, but as yet they have no INmUENCEONPOLICY-EANWHILE #ONGRESSCANGOONTHREATening even more sanctions on Iran in the expectation that Russia and China will continue to give such sanctions Security Council blessing. And leaders of the Israeli lobby can get op-eds in the New York Times vociferously supporting their doing so. This may by no means be the case when the six-country TALKS BREAK DOWN IN SIX MONTHS TIME #HINAS SUPPORT IS largely based on its desire to foster ties with Israel. As is made clear in a Brookings forum, bringing together Israelis and Chinese, on the sidelines of the secret three-party (US INCLUDED TALKS IN MID &EBRUARY  #HINA FOSTERS RELAtions with the Israelis for several reasons. First, to get a fair wind for the growing volume of Chinese FDI in the Middle %AST AND TO PROTECT ITS GROWING NEED FOR MID %ASTERN OIL second, to make the US indebted to it by dissociating itself from the Russian side in the proxy US-Russia war in Syria, ANDTHIRD TODOSOINAWAYTHATCANENLIST)SRAELISUPPORTIN stopping the US from ordering Israel to ban the export of militarily sensitive technology to China. Russia, for its part, is avoiding confrontation with the US until the Olympic Games are over, but its support for Iran sanctions can hardly be counted on, given its general support for the Shias in the spreading and intensifying Shia-Sunni war, that is also a proxy Russia-US war, and given its economic problems now that US fracking oil is undercutting the price of its own 

New York Times International Edition -ARCH China, Israel and the United States – Discussion at Brookings organized by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, in partnership with the Israel Institute and the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, Video &EBRUARY WWWBROOKINGSEDUEVENTS CHINA ISRAEL US



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oil exports, a problem that would be alleviated by a mid%ASTCONmAGRATION There is, therefore, a strong possibility that China or Russia or both will veto further UN sanctions on Iran when the talks BREAKDOWN"UTTHATWOULDBEONLYAlRSTSTEP AVERYLONG way from creating a consensus, in which the US leadership can share, for dumping the NPT and creating a sensible and realistic and safer nuclear weapons control regime. But the ALTERNATIVESEEMSTOBEANINTENSIlCATIONOF-IDDLE %ASTERN chaos that might spread to endanger the futures or our own, European and American, children and grandchildren, not only of all the Jews, Muslims and Christians in the Middle East itself.

Chapter 7

THE NEW COLD WARS

y A final object of my indignation is mainstream American attitudes and policies towards Russia and China. Those attitudes appear to hold serious dangers since they seem to be shared by the Western press in general and probably the MAJORITYOFPOLITICALLYINTERESTEDPEOPLE ANDEVENOFTHEben pensanti of Europe. THE ENDING OF THE COLD WAR

There were those who saw the end of the Cold War as being also the end of large-bloc divisions in world politics. John Mearsheimer, at a Ditchley conference in 1990, convened by the British, French, American and German prime ministers/presidents predicted a dismemberment of the nowno-longer-needed NATO as Europeans, no longer afraid of those massed Russian tanks became reluctant to fund it, and a probably dangerous return to nineteenth century national JOSTLINGMORELIKELYTHANTHE#OLD7ARYEARSTOBEPRONETO violence. 

John J. Mearsheimer, Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War HTTPMEARSHEIMERUCHICAGOEDUPDFS!PDF

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What he did not account for was the American missionary zeal to spread the American way of life to the whole world, and to use the maintenance and expansion of NATO as one of its main instruments. After much uncertainty and debate in the early 1990s this became explicit in 1998 when the Senate, by a vote of eighty-three to nineteen, endorsed THE#LINTONADMINISTRATIONSDECISIONTOEXPAND.!4/)T would, said Clinton, ‘help to erase the Cold War dividing line and contribute to our strategic goal of building an undiVIDEDANDPEACEFUL%UROPE Russia saw this, obviously, as a threat, but Yeltsin was so much in awe of the United States THATHEALLOWEDHIMSELFTOBEMOLLIlEDBYTHEESTABLISHMENT also in 1998, of the NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council. At the ending of the Cold War, Gorbachev had been promised that, even though the Warsaw pact was doomed TODISINTEGRATIONBYITSINABILITYTOPREVENTTHEUNIlCATIONOF 'ERMANY .!4/ IN EXCHANGE FOR 2USSIAS AGREEMENT TO ACCEPTTHATUNIlCATION WOULDNOTSEEKTOEXPAND@ONEINCH TOTHEEAST Never was a promise so handsomely broken. Wikipedia HASAGOODSUMMARYOF.!4/SEXPANSION In 1990, there was a debate in NATO about continued expansion eastward. In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech 2EPUBLICJOINEDTHEORGANIZATION AMIDMUCHDEBATEWITHIN the organization and Russian opposition. Another expansion came with the accession of seven Central and Eastern EuroPEANCOUNTRIES%STONIA ,ATVIA ,ITHUANIA 3LOVENIA 3LOVAKIA "ULGARIA AND2OMANIA4HESENATIONSWERElRSTINVITED to start talks of membership during the 2002 Prague summit, AND JOINED .!4/ ON  -ARCH  SHORTLY BEFORE THE 

*OHANNA 'RANVILLE @4HE MANY PARADOXES OF .!4/ ENLARGEMENT Current History VOL .O !PRIL

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 )STANBUL SUMMIT -OST RECENTLY !LBANIA AND #ROATIA JOINEDON!PRIL SHORTLYBEFORETHE3TRASBOURG Kehl summit. Future expansion is currently a topic of debate in many countries. Cyprus and Macedonia are stalled from accession by, respectively, Turkey and Greece, pending the resolution of disputes between them. Other countries which have a STATED GOAL OF EVENTUALLY JOINING INCLUDE "OSNIA AND (ERzegovina, Montenegro, and Georgia. The incorporation of COUNTRIESFORMERLYINTHE3OVIETSPHEREOFINmUENCEHASBEEN a cause of increased tension between NATO countries and Russia.

The other mechanism for the expansion of a bloc militarily dominated by the United States, was economic and social INTEGRATIONnCONCRETELYTHEINCORPORATIONOFCOUNTRIESFORmerly in the Soviet bloc into the European Union. Many of the original six, and Britain, were reluctant to take on the possible obligation to support countries much poorer than themselves, and to submit their workforce to the competiTIONOFTHE@0OLISHPLUMBER BUTINTHEENDTHEYSUBMITTED to the pressure of the United States and its expansionist geoPOLITICALPROJECT 4HE-AASTRICHT4REATYOFANDTHESUBSEQUENT#OPENhagen Criteria set the conditions for admission to the EU a democratic government, a free market, acceptance of all existing EU laws, and the unanimous approval of all existing members. But the Western strategists were careful not to move too QUICKLY "EFORE THE USE OF .!4/ AND THE %5 BECAME A GENERALLYACCEPTEDPOSSIBILITY THElRSTINSTRUMENTFORREACHing what Clinton called the strategic goal of incorporation OF 2USSIA INTO @THE 7EST WAS THE SUBSIDIZATION OF ADVISERS n*EFFREY3ACHSBEINGONEOFTHEMOSTVOCALANDPROMINENT nSENTTO2USSIATOTEACH2USSIANSTHEVIRTUESOFFREEMARKET



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

economics. One lone exception was Alan Blinder the unreconstructed Keynesian, who once remarked that by 1981 it WASHARDTOlNDAMACROECONOMISTUNDERFORTYWHOWOULD admit to being a Keynesian. In his presidential address at the International Economics Association in Moscow in August 1992, he reminded his audience that American neo-liberal free-marketism was not the only way to run a successful economy, and that the Russians should also study Japan. But he was a lone voice. By 1999, when Yeltsin handed over power to his chosen successor Putin, the American hope was that, having managed somehow to tame its rampant corruption and domesticate the oligarchs whom Yeltsin HADALLOWEDTOmOURISH 2USSIAWOULDEVENTUALLYlNDITSFEET as another European capitalist nation, sharing in an increasingly global culture, impelled by the same desire to belong which had prompted the other former Warsaw Pact countries to seek membership in both NATO and the European union. THE PUTIN ERA

Putin moved slowly to clear up the mess that Yeltsin had created. He made life uncomfortable for most of the oligarchs who moved to the UK and bought football clubs with the riches they had cached abroad. And, for a while, he did nothing much to destroy the American assumptions of RusSIASEVENTUALMERGINGWITH@THE7EST INSPITEOFHISPROTESTS AGAINSTTHElRSTEXPANSIONOF.!4/WITHTHEADMISSIONOF Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary in 1999. The famous meeting between Bush Jr and Putin, in Slovenia in 2001 took place in that still maintained atmosphere. Journalists remarked on how their meeting began frigidly ANDENDEDINGREATWARMTH"USHSAIDITWAS 

HTTPENWIKIPEDIAORGWIKI3LOVENIA?3UMMIT?

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…..time to move beyond Cold War attitudes, away from mutually assured destruction towards mutually earned respect. ‘I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy and we had a very good diaLOGUE)WASABLETOGETASENSEOFHISSOUL(ESAMANDEEPLY committed to his country and the best interests of his counTRYAND)APPRECIATEVERYMUCHTHEFRANKDIALOGUEANDTHATS the beginning of a very constructive relationship

Nowadays, that episode is recalled, if at all, with derision. We all are now supposed to realize that Bush was totally deceived. Not only did he fail to realize what an irredeemably blackhearted character Putin was, but he genuinely believed that Putin wanted to have friendly relations with the United States. "UT INFACT ATTHETIMEOFTHAT3LOVENIAMEETING"USHS JUDGEMENT WAS CORRECT 2USSIAN POLICY WAS MUCH MORE friendly than hostile to the US. The Slovenia meeting was in June. In September the twin towers were destroyed, and before the American troops entered Afghanistan in November in order to oust the Taliban hosts of Al Qaeda, the US made a strategic agreement with Uzbekistan to establish a supply airbase in Uzbekistan. I have not found details of the BARGAINING ANDITISDIFlCULTTOKNOWHOWFAR2USSIAFACILItated the negotiations with its former satellite, but it certainly did not obstruct them. (Though doubtless many RusSIANOFlCIALSHADAGREATschadenfreude moment at the spectacle of the Taliban, born of the mujaheddin !MERICASSORCERERS apprentice, turning so violently against the master sorcerer WHICHHADARMEDANDORGANIZEDITTOlGHT2USSIANCONTROL over Afghanistan for the whole decade, 1979 to 1989.) This initial burst of utopianism lasted until 2002 when 3ECRETARYOF3TATE#ONDOLEEZZA2ICECOULDSTILLDECLARETHAT 

@4HE 3ORCERERS !PPRENTICE )SLAMIST -ILITANCY IN 3OUTH !SIA The Washington Quarterly, January 2010.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

4ODAY THE WORLDS GREAT CENTRES OF POWER ARE UNITED BY COMMON INTERESTS COMMON DANGERS AND n INCREASINGLY n common values. We have an historic opportunity to break the destructive pattern of great power rivalry that has bedevILEDTHEWORLDSINCE;THE=RISEOFTHENATION STATEINTHESEVenteenth century.

But that relative harmony, the warm expressions of RusSIANSOLIDARITYAFTER WERENOTTOLAST!MERICASSINGLE MINDED CONCENTRATIONONTHE@7ARON4ERRORPRODUCEDA fortress mentality which led inevitably to the alienation of 2USSIA4HE.!4/TREATYSCOLLECTIVESECURITYCLAUSE REQUIRing all signatories to declare war on any aggressor against any OFITSMEMBERS WASINVOKEDFORTHElRSTANDONLYTIMEIN order to make the 2001 attack on Afghanistan a war fought BY .!4/ NOT JUST BY !MERICAN TROOPS 4HE %UROPEANS REFUSEDTOACCEPTTHESAMETREATMENTOFTHEWARAGAINST)RAQ SOTHATHADTOBEFOUGHTBYA@COALITIONOFTHEWILLINGINCLUDing, this time, a non-NATO country, Japan. By 2005 it had become clear that the end of the Cold War had not led to either a peaceful or a multipolar world. Instead, it had spawned two new cold wars and one hot war. Cold wars were actively pursued with Russia, and prepared under cover of reasonably amicable dialogue with China UNTIL(ILARY#LINTONS(ANOISPEECHIN4HEHOTWAR WASFOUGHTIN)RAQ ,EBANON 'AZAAND3YRIA INORDERTOPRESERVE)SRAELSREGIONALMONOPOLYOFNUCLEARWEAPONS Here is a 2009 recital of American initiatives directed at STRENGTHENING!MERICASREADINESSFORANYCONFRONTATIONWITH Russia. It comes from a website70 which is largely dedicated 

HTTPWWWTHEATLANTICCOMINTERNATIONALARCHIVE UKRAINE IS THIS HOW THE WAR ON TERROR ENDS 70 'LOBAL2ESEARCH4HE52,FORTHEARTICLEQUOTEDHERE2ICK2OZOFF Encircling Russia: US NATO bases in Eastern Europe, 2009) is at

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to analysing American foreign policy on the hostile lines DEVELOPEDINTHISPAPER Last week was an eventful one in Eastern Europe. The two top foreign policy veterans in the current US administration, Vice President Joseph Biden and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, visited the capitals of Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. Biden was in Warsaw, Prague and Bucharest to recruit all three nations into the new US-led, NATO-wide interceptor missile system and to make arrangements for the deployment of American 0ATRIOTMISSILESANDTROOPSTO0OLAND THElRSTFOREIGNSOLDIERS to be based in that nation since the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact eighteen years ago. Gates was in Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia, for a twoDAY MEETING OF .!4/ AND PARTNER STATES DEFENSE CHIEFS which also focused on the establishment of a missile shield to encompass the entire European continent as well as the UNPARALLELED ESCALATION OF THE 53S AND .!4/S WAR IN Afghanistan. A few days earlier the US armed forces publication Stars and Stripes announced that the Pentagon will spend an addiTIONALMILLIONTOUPGRADETWOOFTHESEVENMILITARYBASES IN"ULGARIAAND2OMANIAITACQUIREDTHEUSEOFINAGREEMENTS SIGNEDINAND

The report led to political fallout in the two host countries WITH"ULGARIANAND2OMANIANOFlCIALSSCRAMBLINGTOQUALIFY the news and pretend that somehow their own subservient governments would retain control over the expanded bases. 3OlAAND"UCHARESTHAVENOMORESAYINHOWTHE0ENTAGON AND.!4/HAVEUSEDANDWILLINTENSIFYTHEUSEOFAIRlELDS HTTPWWWGLOBALRESEARCHCAENCIRCLING RUSSIA US NATO MILITARY BASES IN EASTERN EUROPE

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and other bases in their nations than they do in determining WHICHWARZONESTHEIROWNNATIONSTROOPSAREDEPLOYEDTO WHICHOFLATEINCLUDE"OSNIA +OSOVO !FGHANISTANAND)RAQ .!4/@EXPANSIONAND%5@ENLARGEMENTWENTHANDIN hand. Ten new countries were admitted to the Union in  lVEOFTHEMFORMERMEMBERSOFTHE7ARSAW0ACT THE three Baltic countries which Russia had occupied during the Second World War, plus Slovenia from the former Yugoslavia, and Cyprus. The accession agreements did not all give full access to the single labour market. Romania, for examPLE HADTOWAITSEVENYEARSFORTHAT)TWASNOTUNTIL that the British started worrying about the possibly criminal Romanians next door rather than the Polish plumbers taking THEJOBSOF"RITISHARTISANS THE COUNTER-BLOC

Russia responded by building a bloc of its own, albeit one with far less homogeneity and constraining ties of solidarity THAN!MERICAS)TWASALEADINGPLAYERINFORMINGWHATWAS originally called the Shanghai Five comprising China, RusSIA +AZAKHSTAN +YRGYZSTAN AND 4AJIKISTAN )TS MAIN ORIGInal purpose in the mid-1990s was to resolve boundary disPUTESBETWEEN2USSIAAND#HINA)N ITWASJOINEDBY Uzbekistan and became known as the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Since then, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan have been admitted as observers, and it has developed as a general regional security organization, expanding its agenda to concern itself not only with trade BUTALSOWITHCOUNTER TERRORISMANDDRUGTRAFlCKING71 71

Lionel Cohen (Eurasia), What to do about the SCO’s rising influence?  HTTPWWWEURASIANETORGDEPARTMENTSINSIGHTARTICLESEAV shtml.

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"Y *ULY  THE 3#/ HAD ACQUIRED THE CONlDENCE TO challenge the United States. It issued a declaration calling for the United States to set a timeline for its withdrawal of military forces from the region. The US Council on Foreign 2ELATIONSSUMSUPTHESITUATION72 The SCO says the US bases were not meant to be permanent and were only installed to assist the US-led war in Afghanistan, which SCO members say has ended. China and Russia have long wanted U.S. troops out of Central Asia, an energyRICHREGIONBOTHCONSIDERWITHINTHEIRSPHEREOFINmUENCE experts say. Russia views the US presence in the post-Soviet region, including the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), with increasing suspicion after uprisings in Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan unseated leaders loyal to the Kremlin. Many in Moscow argue these SO CALLED@COLOURREVOLUTIONSWERETHEWORKOF53 FUNDED NONGOVERNMENTALORGANIZATIONS%XPERTSALSOSAY"EIJINGSEES the U.S. military presence along its western border as part of 7ASHINGTONSSTRATEGYTOCONTAIN#HINA%NERGY IS ANOTHER MAJOR#HINESECONCERN ESPECIALLYSECURINGACCESSTOOILAND natural gas from the Caspian basin located roughly 1,500 miles to the west. WHAT ARE THE UNITED STATES’ GOALS IN THE REGION?

4HEPRIMARYOBJECTIVE SAYADMINISTRATIONOFlCIALSISTOUPROOT the Taliban and other terrorists. But there are other issues of CONCERN INCLUDINGSTEMMINGTHEmOWOFDRUGS ILLICITNUCLEAR 72

Lionel Beenher (US Council on Foreign Relations back-grounder), ASIA: U.S. Military Bases in Central Asia, 2005 HTTPWWWCFRORGRUSSIA AND CENTRAL ASIAASIA US MILITARY BASES CENTRAL ASIAP

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material, and small arms illicitly crossing borders. The region is also rich in energy resources, and the United States has SUPPORTEDANEWOILPIPELINEFROM"AKU !ZERBAIJAN TO#EYhan, Turkey. This has led some to charge that the United 3TATESISREALLYAFTERTHEREGIONSOIL@;7ASHINGTONIS=KILLING TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE  lGHTING TERRORISTS WHILE SECURing energy sources, says Lutz Kleveman, author of The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia. Others say the US PRESENCEIN#ENTRAL!SIAISAIMEDMOREATCURBINGTHEINmUENCEOF-OSCOWINTHEREGION@!FUNDAMENTALOBJECTIVEOF the US government is to prevent any neo-imperial revival in %URASIA SAYS3TEPHEN*"LANK ANEXPERTON#ENTRAL!SIAAT THE53!RMY7AR#OLLEGES3TRATEGIC3TUDIES)NSTITUTE Central Asian leaders themselves increasingly accuse Washington of seeking a permanent presence in the region FORREASONSUNRELATEDTOITSWARONTERRORISM!TTHE3#/S 5 July summit, Uzbek President Islam Karimov, whose government is widely accused of corruption and human-rights abuses, said Washington has ‘far-reaching geopolitical plans, THElNALAIMOFWHICHISTOCHANGETHEBALANCEOFPOWERAND DOMINATETHE#ENTRAL!SIANREGION53OFlCIALSDISPUTETHIS CLAIM@7EHAVENOTERRITORIALDESIGNS 'ENERAL2ICHARD" Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters ON*ULY 4HATWASIN#ONCERNSABOUT!MERICAS@FAR REACHINGGEOPOLITICALPLANSIN#ENTRAL!SIA WEREGREATLYINCREASED as the Afghan war demanded more and more resources. A MAJORMEANSOFDELIVERINGTHOSERESOURCESWASTODEVELOPTHE Northern Distribution Network an alternative to the unreliable and dangerous southern supply route through Pakistan. It ran along the Caucasus to the Caspian Sea, and from there through Central Asia to the Baltic, and from there to Afghanistan. In getting countries to accept the route as it ran through their territories, ample use was made of the Silk Road Strategy Act of 1999, an amendment of the Foreign

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Aid act to extend aid to the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia /NE EXAMPLE !MERICAS WOOING OF 5ZBEKISTAN AND THE attempt to revive the, in theory still operative, 2002 USUzbekistan Strategic Partnership began in earnest in 2008. The US had vacated its air base in that country in November  IN RESPONSE TO THE 3#/S @GET OUT DECLARATION REINFORCEDBYTHE5ZBEKIGOVERNMENTSASSERTIONSTHATTHEOUTBREAKSOFANTI GOVERNMENTUNRESTINHADBEENFOMENTED by the CIA. )N  5ZBEKISTANS 0RESIDENT +ARIMOV WAS INVITED TO Washington and urged to put some substance into the Strategic Partnership, but he made it clear that he intended to maintain the parallel (intersecting?) Strategic Partnership Uzbekistan had made with Russia in 2003, and would, if anything, give more weight to the latter.73 MAD AND THE MEDVEDEV INTERLUDE

Two things kept the world at peace during the Cold War YEARS/NEWAS-!$n-UTUALLY!SSURED$ESTRUCTION THE fact that neither bloc had an effective anti-missile defence system so that the devastating retaliation which would be EVOKED BY A lRST STRIKE MADE BOTH SIDES AWARE THAT A lRST strike would be suicidal, The other was the clarity of bloc boundaries which will be considered in the next section.

73

Farkhod Tolipov, ‘Will the US and Uzbekistan Revisit their strategic 0ARTNERSHIP The Central Asia and Caucasus Analyst, The Central Asia and Caucasus Silk Road Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University, -ARCHHTTPWWWCACIANALYSTORGPUBLICATIONSANALYTICAL ARTICLESITEM WILL THE US AND UZBEKISTAN REVISIT THEIR strategic-partnership.html).

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As for MAD, the Cold War balance was carried over into the post-1990 US-Russia relationship. During the inter-regnum of Medvedev, from 2008 to 2012, (occasioned by the constitutional provision that prevented Putin from serving a third term), the state did in fact become less forceful, both in domestic and in foreign policies. Whether this was a real difference prompted by the respective personalities of the two men, or a tactical manoeuvre on which both men were agreed remains obscure. At any rate it was Medvedev who did Obama a good turn by signing the Start Treaty in 2010 after six months of negotiation. Obama having declared in his Prague speech in 2009 that he was working for a world without a single nuclear weapon, needed some concrete evidence that he was serious and START was intended to provide it with its agreement that both Russia and America would deploy only (sic.) 1550 warheads each, with similar generous limitations on delivery systems and no limit on the number of non-deployed warheads kept in storage. See Chapter 5 for the risible boast by an American spokesman, speaking as a REPRESENTATIVEOFTHElVE@LEGITIMATENUCLEARWEAPONSTATES THATTHEYWEREMOVINGRAPIDLYTOWARDSAZEROTARGET
!FTER 0UTINS RETURN THE 5NITED 3TATES PROPOSED ANOTHER round of agreed reductions on START lines, but they got a tough response. ‘No discussion of nuclear weapons until the United States abandons its development of a missile interceptor defence system, and removes the installations for such a SYSTEMFROM0OLANDANDTHE#ZECH2EPUBLIC The US, of course, refused, and recent reports suggest that the American response to the Ukrainian fracas has been to accelerate the missile defence programme, and to develop new bases in Romania and Denmark. 

6OICE OF 2USSIA  -ARCH  HTTPVOICEOFRUSSIA COM??53 USING MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM IN %UROPE TO make-Russia-change-its-Ukraine-policies-0975/).

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#HINA LIKEWISE HAS BEEN lERCELY OPPOSED TO THE JOINT development of such a system in Asia. Ever since the ABM Treaty of 1972, it has been taken for granted that the develOPMENT OF SUCH SYSTEMS HAD AS THEIR OBJECTIVE THE ACQUISITION OF A lRST STRIKE CAPACITY BY REMOVING THE PENALTY OF retaliation. Whether, in reaction to the American refusal to abandon development of the missile defence system, (even arguing naively that defence was defence, not offence) the Russians and the Chinese are working on their own such systems I do not know. GOOD FENCES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBOURS: THE PROBLEM OF BUFFER STATES

If MAD and nuclear standoff are one means which kept the peace during the Cold War, and continue to set outer limits TOCONmICTTODAY THEOTHERFACTORWHICHKEPTTHEPEACEDURing the Cold War but is failing to do so now, is the clarity of the military boundary between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, and its acceptance by both sides. 4HEPOST SETTLEMENTANDTHESUBSEQUENTPUSHINGOF the NATO/EU boundary with Russia further to the east also tended towards the delineation of clear boundaries, but with the important exception of two buffer states, Georgia AND 5KRAINE WHOSE ALLEGIANCE THE TWO BLOCS COULD n AND PERPETUALLYDIDnCOMPETEFOR The instrument of competition has been  INTERGOVERNMENTALBRIBESnAID CHEAPOILORGAS FAVOURABLE tariff arrangements for trade, etc. and (2) exploitation of grass-roots ethnic-cultural rivalry. The way the scenario plays out is roughly as follows. Bloc X gains the alliance of the government of country A with its economic favours. Bloc Y incites unrest among Y-speakers in that country. The A-government seeks to crackdown ON THAT UNREST "LOC 9 THEN SUPPOSEDLY HORRIlED AT THE



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bloodshed moves its troops in to take control, which A resists with the help of Bloc X, the end result being partition and the establishment of a good and increasingly peaceful fence between the two blocs running through country A. 3UCHASEQUENCEOFEVENTSWASFULLYPLAYEDOUTIN'EORGIA in 2007n8. It is being played out in Ukraine as this is written, BUTWHETHERITWILLBEFULLYPLAYEDOUTnIEENDINAGREED PARTITIONnREMAINSINDOUBT 'EORGIANEVERWASASUNIlEDASTATEEVENAS5KRAINE4HE THREEAUTONOMOUSENCLAVES !DJARA !BKHAZIAAND3OUTHERN Ossetia had their own systems of government, and, especially THElRSTTWO CLOSETIESWITHTHE2USSIANGOVERNMENT!DJARA WASESSENTIALLYTHElEFOFAPOWERFULWARLORDWHOWASTREATED as a Russian dependent. Abkhazia was a relatively homogeneous Russian-speaking region, with an effective local government, and Ossetia was a semi-anarchic collection of linguistically homogeneous villages (some speaking Russian, some Ossetian and some Georgian), with little overarching authority. Shaaskavili, the president of Georgia decided that he would willy-nilly incorporate these areas under his control. !DJARAWASSOONOCCUPIED ANDTHEHALF FEARED2USSIANINTERvention never took place. This emboldened him to take on the other two. A contributor to the Daily Camera summed UPTHESITUATIONINTHUS ,OOKS AS IF WERE HEADING TOWARDS A SHOWDOWN WITH THE Russians once again. Our elites need to gin up a new threat, so as to conTINUEJUSTIFYINGTHEIRTHREEQUARTERSOFATRILLIONDOLLARWAR BUDGET 3O ITS TIME TO THROW DOWN .!4/S MILITARY gauntlet over the ridiculous Republic of Georgia, a tiny nation known, if for anything, as the birthplace of Josef 3TALINANDTHELOCUSOFASTRATEGICOILPIPELINElNANCEDBY Western interests.

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-OSTVOTERSAREUNAWAREOF*OHN-C#AINSCLOSEPERSONAL and political stakes in Georgia. One of his top aides has been a paid lobbyist for the Georgian regime. McCain has publicly ENCOURAGED'EORGIASIMPULSIVEPRESIDENT-IKHEAIL3HAASKAVILISMOSTIMPRUDENTMILITARYGESTURESAGAINST2USSIASNATUral interests in the Caucasus region. In the early 1990s, the people of Ossetia fought and won a war of secession against Georgia. Since then, Russian peacekeepers, authorized under European legal auspices, HAVE BEEN DEFENDING THE /SSETIANS FROM 'EORGIAS HEAVY HAND .EVERTHELESS ON !UG  3HAASKAVILIS TROOPS STAGED a midnight attack on Ossetia, murdering some two dozen Russian peacekeepers and at least several hundred sleeping Ossetians. .OT ONE LEADING $EMOCRAT OR 2EPUBLICAN OFlCIAL HAS UTTEREDAWORDOFCONDEMNATIONABOUT'EORGIASPERlDYIN THISCONNECTION)NSTEAD WERETOLDITSALL2USSIASFAULT,ET the new Cold War commence. 7ITHTHE)RAQEXPEDITIONWINDINGDOWNININTENSITYAND -C#AINSPRESIDENTIALAMBITIONSINNEEDOFAFRESHLYBELLIGerent theme, US military industrial corporate oligarchs see FUTUREPROSPECTSFORBIGGERPROlTSANDDOMESTICPOLITICALCONTROL THROUGH STOKING TENSIONS AND INSTABILITY ALONG 2USSIAS borders.75

(OW MUCH !MERICAS BACKING WAS ACTUALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR 3HAASKAVILIS ATTEMPTS TO PURGE 'EORGIA OF 2USSIAN INmUENCE IS IN DOUBT 4HE 'EORGIAN SPEAKING VILLAGERS who were supplied with arms to attack Russian villages, DOUBTLESS HAD THEIR OWN HATREDS 4HE CONSEQUENCE WAS that as Georgian troops moved into Ossetia to support those attacking Georgians, Russia replied with its own #ORD-ACQUIRE 2USSIAN3HOWDOWNHTTPWWWDAILYCAMERACOM CI?

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TROOPSANDAFTERSEVERALDAYSOFlGHTINGNOTONLYSECURED Abkhazia and Southern Ossetia but moved its troops menacingly into the Georgian mainland. Sarkhozy brokered a peace. The Russians moved out of Georgia. But they had secured the total independence from Georgia of the two disputed territories and their effective incorporation in the 2USSIAN BLOC 4HE lNAL ACT WAS A mOOD OF NON 2USSIAN speaking refugees from Ossetia, who were fed and housed by American aid. The Americans brought warships into the Black Sea, but only within the limits it had accepted in the Treaty of Montreux of 1938 and avoided any engagement with Russian troops. UKRAINE

6IKTOR 9ANUKOVYCH EMERGED FROM THE TANGLE OF 5KRAINES CORRUPTANDFACTIONALPOLITICSINTHEELECTIONAS5KRAINES new president. This was the second time he had won such an ELECTION THElRSTTIMEBEINGINWHENTHEELECTIONWAS so blatantly corrupt and fraudulent as to prompt mass demonstrations and the so-called Orange Revolution. As a result the Supreme Court declared the election null and void and Yanukovych lost in the re-run. How far Russian support had any effect on the 2010 result ISAMATTEROFCONJECTUREBUTONCE9ANUKOVYCHWASINSTALLED Russia offered him a package of oil and gas prices, pipeline rents and trade advantages far above anything Europe could offer if it could overcame its reluctance to try pushing the bloc border to the east of Ukraine and began EU accession NEGOTIATIONS9ANUKOVICHCONSENTEDTOBECOME2USSIASVASsal, thus keeping the bloc boundaries at the Eastern frontiers of Poland. Doubtless the Russians took the same view as the Americans had traditionally done with their client dictators IN,ATIN!MERICA@(EMAYBEABASTARD BUTHESOURBASTARD But they gritted their teeth in saying so because he was such a

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greedy bastard. He wanted to take a 20 per cent personal cut in the massive loan that Russia offered to keep NATO and Europe out of the Ukraine. His Russian handlers knocked him back to 10 per cent. The Yanukovich regime was corrupt enough and repressive enough for one to believe that the demonstrations which began and gained momentum on the central Kiev 3QUARE THE-AIDAN IN&EBRUARY WEREENTIRELYGRASS roots spontaneous, and would have happened without any American encouragement. As the Foreign Affairs editor of the New York TimesPUTIT77 Putin was minding his own corrupt business, living in a twoparty relationship with his neighbor Ukraine, which was being led by the even more corrupt, pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych. Suddenly, spontaneously from below, an emergent, connected, aspiring middle class of UkraiNIANS n FED UP BOTH WITH REGIME CORRUPTION AND HOW FAR THEYDFALLENBEHINDTHEIRNEIGHBORSINTHE%UROPEAN5NION nDEMANDEDTHAT9ANUKOVYCHFORGECLOSERCOOPERATIONAND trade ties with the European Union. They also demanded SOMETHING NOW COMMON TO EVERY SQUARE THE RIGHT TO BE TREATEDAS@CITIZENSWITHRIGHTSANDRESPONSIBILITIES NOTASTHE playthings of oligarchs or outside powers. Yanukovych opted instead for a closer economic relaTIONSHIPWITH2USSIA SOTHE3QUARE0EOPLEIN+IEVTOPPLED HIM CHALLENGINGEVERYASPECTOF0UTINS+'" SHAPEDWORLDview. Putin does not believe any political protest can ever be spontaneous. If a large body of Ukrainians gathered in the SQUAREOF+IEVTODEMANDANENDTOCORRUPTIONANDCLOSER ties with the EU, it could only be because the CIA, NATO OR THE %5 INSPIRED OR PAID THEM TO DO SO 0UTINS WHOLE 

Private but reliable second-hand information. 4HOMAS,&RIEDMAN @4HE3QUAREPEOPLENYT, 19 May 2015.

77

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mind-set is top-down, and the notion that the combination of globalization and the IT revolution might have given the @PEOPLEBOTHTHEABILITYTOSEETHINGSTHEYCOULDNEVERSEE BEFOREnANDTHETOOLSTOCOLLABORATEANDACTONTHEMFROM THEBOTTOMUPnISTOTALLYALIENTOHIM

How much the CIA was providing cash to compensate for lost wages and to provide bereavement gifts to the families WHOSE MEMBERS WERE KILLED AS A RESULT OF 9ANUKOVICHS brutal, and in the end unsuccessful attempts at repression is AMATTEROFCONJECTURE7HATISNOTAMATTEROFCONJECTURE but of record is the deep American involvement in trying TOMANIPULATE5KRAINIANPOLITICSATTHETIMEnTHANKSTOTHE publication, presumably by the Russians, of the leaked telephone conversation between Geoffrey Pyatt the American ambassador in Kiev and Victoria Nuland, the Assistant Secretary of State in Washington.78 It took place at some TIMENOTLONGBEFORE9ANUKOVICHlRSTTOOKSICKNESSLEAVE AND THEN mED TO 2USSIA 4HE EVIDENCE IT PROVIDES SHOWS THAT  4 HE 53 !MBASSADOR WAS WELL ACQUAINTED WITH THE three most prominent leaders of the anti-Yanukovich opposition, whom he referred to as Yats (Areniy Yatseniuk), Klitsch (Vitaly Klitschko, ex world champion boxer) and Tyahnybok (Oleh Tyahnybok, the thuggish extreme anti-Russian and anti-Semite). Pyatt also believed he was in a position to arbitrate between them, He was &OR A FULL TRANSCRIPT SEE www.bbc.com/news/world

EUROPE !NDFORARESTRAINEDJUSTIlCATIONOF2USSIASPOLICY towards the Ukraine and in Eurasia in general, see Alexander Lukin, @7HAT THE +REMLIN IS THINKING Foreign Affairs *ULY!UGUST  A 2USSIANPERSPECTIVECONTRASTINGSHARPLYWITH&OREIGN!FFAIRSGENERALLY AGGRESSIVEPRO 53 PRO @7ESTERNSTANCE

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deeply engaged in summoning meetings of the three of them plus himself in order to arrive at a settled hierarchy assuming that the one who emerged as leader would become President as soon as Yanukovich should be driven out. 2. For the incorporation of Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Baltic States, Americans in NATO hard-hats had been able to make the running because those countries did seek military security against a nuclear-armed Russia. In Ukraine, by contrast, although American marines had actually landed in Ukraine INTOTAKEPARTINTHE3EA"REEZE5KRAINE .!4/ military exercise, this was clearly not the case. (At that time, protesters greeted the marines with barricades and SLOGANSBEARING@/CCUPIERSGOHOME
ANDACOUPLEOFDAYS later, the Crimean parliament declared Crimea a ‘NATOFREE TERRITORY  4HEREAFTER IT WAS OBVIOUS THAT .!4/ HADACTEDPREMATURELYTHEBLOCRIVALRYFORTHEALLEGIANCE of Ukraine was still at the economic competition stage, and only the European Union could take the initiative in offering economic packages which might outbid those offered by Russia. 3. Pyatt and Nuland were deeply irritated by the way in which the EU dragged its feet in accepting the idea of doing so. The EU and NATO were supposed to work hand in hand to push the bloc boundary further to the EAST BUTINSTEADTHE%5WASDIVIDED0OLANDSENTHUSIASM for the enterprise was not shared by France and Germany. Hence the Americans gave up on the EU entirely (‘Fuck THE%5 AS.ULANDSAID  )NSTEAD 0YATT AND .ULAND DECIDED TO LOOK FOR EXTRA LEGITIMACYTOTHE5."AN+I-OONWASSEENAS!MERICAS poodle and they welcomed Ivan Simonovic the Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights who was sent to Ukraine to gather material for a report on human rights.

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0YATT INVITED HIM TO JOIN THE TALKS HE WAS HAVING WITH OPPOSITIONLEADERS4HEFOURSOMEBECAMEAlVESOME

When Simonovic presented his report on human rights in mid-March it was heartily welcomed in the West, but not IN -OSCOW 4HE 2USSIAN &OREIGN -INISTRY ISSUED A lERCE statement79 ATTACKING HIS @BIASED PREJUDICED AND NONOBJECTIVEASSESSMENT)TWENTON ;(E=ONLYSOFTLYADMONISHEDALITTLEGROUPOFPOLITICIANS;IN +IEV=FORKINDLINGHATREDWHILEATTHESAMETIMEEXPRESSED much graver concern with human rights situation in Crimea. ;(E=PREFERREDNOTTONOTICEKILLINGS MASSREPRISALS TORTURE KIDNAPPINGS ATTACKS ON JOURNALISTS AND HUMAN RIGHTS advocates, arrests for political motives, blatant outbreaks of OBVIOUSLY RACIST n INCLUDING ANTI 2USSIAN AND ANTI 3EMITIC nNATURE WHICHHAPPENEITHERONORDERSORWITHTHESILENT consent of the people who seized power in Kiev, ;(ECLAIMEDTOBE=GRAVELYCONCERNEDABOUTTHESITUATION in Crimea, ‘where there appears to be no rule of law at present, and therefore a drastic deterioration in the protection of human rights, as well as rampant fear and insecurity due to misinformation, blocking of information and total uncerTAINTYABOUTWHATISCOMINGNEXT HESAID We would like to remind Mr Simonovic not only of the GUARANTEES WHICHTHE2EPUBLICSAUTHORITIESAREGIVINGAND will give in the future to the Crimean Tatar minority, but also of the fact that Crimea is currently likely the only place that maintained law and order.

!SITTURNEDOUT ITWASINDEED-S.ULANDSFAVOURITE 9ATS who became interim Prime Minister, and Oleksandr Tur 24 1UESTION -ORE  -ARCH  HTTPRTCOMNEWSBIAS SIMONOVIC CRIMEA RUSSIA  EUROPE 

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chynov, the Speaker of the Parliament who bcame interim President. Both of them were close associates of Yulia 4YMOSHENKOWHOM9ANUKOVICHHADJAILEDANDHISOPPONENTSRELEASEDEARLYIN4HEYWEREAPPOINTEDTOHOLD the ring until the presidential elections due on 25 May. In THE EVENT 4YMOSHENKOS REPUTATION FOR CORRUPTION CAUSED HER TO LOSE MISERABLY TO THE BILLIONAIRE @#HOCOLATE +ING 0ETRO 0OROSHENKO WHO ROMPED HOME ON THE lRST BALLOT WITH  PER CENT )T REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER HE WILL manage to broker a peace deal with Russia which will give autonomy (but not membership in the Russian Federation) to the Donbas provinces in the east. Russia, for its part seems not to want to have them in the Russian Federation. They cannot afford the expense, given the great drain on their RESOURCES REQUIRED TO GET #RIMEA BACK INTO DECENT SHAPE CAPABLE OF RESUMING THE INmOW OF TOURISTS TO ITS SOUTHERN @2IVIERA CRIMEA

Meanwhile, the turmoil in Kiev at the time of the ousting of Yanukovych had given Russia the opportunity to annex Crimea and undo what Russians almost unanimously BELIEVEWAS+HRUSHCHEVSMISTAKEINHANDINGTHISFORMERLY 2USSIAN TERRITORY TO 5KRAINE IN THE POST 3TALIN RESHUFmE OF  +HRUSHCHEV HAD HOWEVER MAINTAINED AN AUTONOMOUSNAVALBASEIN3EBASTOPOLn2USSIAS'UANTANAMO"Y  THEPOPULATIONOFTHATENCLAVEMADEUPASIXTHOFTHE total Crimean population which together with other Russian-speakers in Crimea were delighted to have the Russians back, as a referendum organized by the local Crimean government demonstrated. Much doubt has been cast on the DECLARATIONTHATPERCENTOF#RIMEANSWEREINFAVOUROF independence and incorporation in Russia. The Washington PostQUOTESA2USSIANWEBSITE NOWAVAILABLEONLYIN2USSIAN

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THAT OF THE 0RESIDENT OF 2USSIAS #OUNCIL ON #IVIL 3OCIETY AND(UMAN2IGHTS "EFOREQUOTINGTHATARTICLE INVIEWOFTHEGENERAL7ESTERN assumption that Russia is a monolithic state, it might be useful to clarify the nature of that Council. Here is the published transcript80OFAMEETINGON&EBRUARY Vladimir Putin met with Russian Human Rights Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin and Chairperson of the Presidium of THE#IVIL$IGNITYNATIONALPUBLICMOVEMENT%LLA0AMlLOVA -R,UKINSTERMOFOFlCEAS(UMAN2IGHTS/MBUDSMAN EXPIRESON&EBRUARY AND-S0AMlLOVAHASBEENNOMInated to this post. The new candidate must be approved by the State Duma within 30 days. 02%3)$%.4/&2533)!6,!$)-)2054).TO-S 0AMlLOVA -R,UKIN 4HESUBJECTOFOURMEETINGISWELLKNOWNANDHASBEEN ANNOUNCEDPREVIOUSLYnWEAREONTHETHRESHOLDOFAPPOINTing a new Human Rights Ombusman, and, as you may know, our leading human rights organizations, people active in the human rights movement, who are authorities in this area have ALMOSTUNANIMOUSLYSUPPORTED-S0AMlLOVAASACANDIDATETO this post. However, before all the legal formalities have been DEALTWITH )WANTEDTOMEETANDASKYOUASIMPLEQUESTION Do you agree to this? What will you say if we do this? "EINGAHUMANRIGHTSADVOCATEISAVERYSPECIlCJOB)T envisages constant interaction with the authorities, and not JUST INTERACTION BUT ALSO A CRITICAL APPROACH TO WHAT THE authorities at all levels are doing. However, without this society cannot develop in harmony and the interests of our citizens cannot be protected in full, as much as this is at all possible. Therefore, I strongly hope to see the approach you described. HTTPENGNEWSKREMLINRUNEWS

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There is a constant competition of sorts going on, if I may say so in the context of the Olympic Games that are underway in Sochi… CHAIRPERSON OF THE PRESIDIUM OF THE CIVIL DIGNITY NATIONAL PUBLIC MOVEMENT %,,! 0!-&),/6! ) WOULD LIKE TO BEGIN BY THANKING human rights activists and you, Mr President, for taking the risk of nominating me. Of course, I accept and I hope that in my work I will have the assistance of all those who are interested in resolving these issues, if the appointment does take place. Thank you. RUSSIAN HUMAN RIGHTS OMBUDSMAN 6,!$)-)2 ,5+). ) HAVE SAID ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS THATSINCEMYTERMOFOFlCEISEXPIRINGBYLAW )WASVERY happy to hear and I supported this proposal of nominating -S0AMlLOVATOTHEPOSITION -S0AMlLOVAHASALLTHEPERSONALQUALITIESANDTHEEXPERIENCETHATTHISJOBREQUIRES3HEENJOYSRESPECTANDTRUSTAMONG various groups and has a very good reputation. Therefore, I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT -S 0AMlLOVA WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE A smooth transition and continue the work plus ultra, as they SAYIN,ATINnEVENFURTHER %,,! 0!-&),/6! -R 0RESIDENT ) MUST ADMIT THAT SINCEYOUSAIDTHAT)COULD@EATTHEMALLALIVE)HAVEBECOME a little frightened of myself. I would like to say that if it all works out, the main thing is to be honest in our work, that is all. Honest and consistent. You can count on this.

It appears that Ella Pamphilova was no stranger to the role of @LICENSED DISSENTER #ATHERINE /WEN OF THE "RITISH &OREIGN Policy Centre had this to say about her in 2012.81 #ATHERINE /WEN @)S THE 2USSIAN 0RESIDENTS #OUNCIL ON (UMAN 2IGHTS@$EMOCRATIC &OREIGN0OLICY#ENTREFPCORGUK 

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Although the Council has no legal powers and its members are not elected by the Russian people, the Council is widely seen as one of the most democratic institutions in the country ….. 4HE #OUNCILS @DEMOCRATIC REPUTATION WAS FORGED BY %LLA0AMlLOVA WHOHEADEDTHEORGANIZATIONBETWEEN and 2010. Under her dynamic and energetic leadership, it became a place of independent criticism of the government, PROVIDINGALIBERALCRITIQUEOFSTATEPOLICYIN2USSIASNARROW political environment in which such views are ridiculed and marginalized. It was therefore surprising that a governmentfounded institution could criticize the government so vocifEROUSLY EVENIFITSCRITIQUESTENDEDTOFALLONDEAFEARS !CCORDING TO RESEARCH DONE BY THE #OUNCIL ITSELF JUST lVEPERCENTOFTHEIRPOLICYRECOMMENDATIONSAREPUTINTO practice. Nonetheless, the Council has published damning reports on some of the most salient social issues in the country, including Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Pussy Riot, and THEELECTIONFALSIlCATIONSOF$ECEMBER)NDEED SOME MEMBERS CONSIDER IT THE #OUNCILS MAIN TASK TO HELP FORM public opinion on critical social matters, although the extent to which the average Russian is aware of the Presidential Council, let alone accesses its reports, is debatable. Yet, despite its generally low impact level, some inside the Kremlin have lamented the unchecked voice of the Council, and events of the past year may signify the end of the Council as THEGOVERNMENTSVOICEOFCONSCIENCE

4ORETURNTOTHAT#OUNCILSASSESSMENTOFTHE#RIMEANRECommendation, according to the Washington Post it points out82 that the turnout was low outside of Sebastopol,and HTTPWWWWASHINGTONPOSTCOMNEWSVOLOKH CONSPIRACY WPRUSSIAN GOVERNMENT AGENCY REVEALS FRAUDULENT nature-of-the-crimean-referendum-results/.

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the real proportion of the population voting for Association with Russia could have been as low as 25 per CENT Moreover, the low turnout rate, combined with evidence of intimidation and violence by pro-Russia forces, strongly suggests that many opponents of annexation chose not to vote OUTOFFEAR4HISDOESNOTDElNITIVELYPROVETHATANNEXATION LACKEDMAJORITYSUPPORT)TISPOSSIBLETHATAFAIRVOTEMIGHT STILL HAVE LED TO A NARROW MAJORITY IN FAVOR OF ANNEXATION Still, the Council report provides further evidence that the OFlCIALRESULTSCANNOTBETRUSTEDANDTHATTHEREALDISTRIBUTION of opinion in Crimea is at least much more evenly divided than Russia claims.

Nevertheless, in March, Putin took the result of that referenDUMASJUSTIlCATIONFORDECLARING#RIMEATOBEINCORPORATED into the Russian Federation. The only vociferous opposition to the annexation came from the Tatars. They made up 12 per cent of the Crimean population. A century ago Crimea was almost exclusively 4ATAR TERRITORY 4HE PLANNED INlLTRATION OF 2USSIANS AFTER THE2USSIAN2EVOLUTIONENDEDIN3TALINSMASSDEPORTATION OFTHE4ATARSTO#ENTRAL!SIA FROMWHICHTHEYlLTEREDBACK into Crimea, in more benign times after Khruschev incorporated Crimea into Ukraine. Their natural hatred of Russians meant that they were anything but pleased by the annexation, and how far the new regime is seeking to mollify them by granting of collective minority rights is in doubt.83 The number of Ukrainian-speaking refugees leaving Crimea for 5KRAINE HAS BEEN MODEST COMPARED WITH THE mOOD FROM Ossetia in 2008. 0RESIDENT OF 2USSIAS #OUNCIL ON #IVIL 3OCIETY AND (UMAN 2IGHTS website.

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ROUND NUMBER 3

The general Western assumption was that the annexation of Crimea by Russia was the beginning of another round in the repeat push-back scenario. Russia would go on to foment unrest and rebellion in the eastern half of Ukraine. 4HE5KRAINIANARMYWOULDMOVEINTOQUELLTHEREBELLION The heavy loss of Russian-speaker lives would prompt the invasion of Russian armed forces. That was as far as most Western scenarios went. Here, for example is Roger Cohen, writing with his usual overblown rhetoric. (The New York TimesISSTILL@LIBERALENOUGH to publish a cool, historically well-informed assessment of the Ukrainian situation by John Mearscheimer, but the general tone and the columns and editorials about Ukraine written by the Foreign Affairs editor, Thomas Friedman, are consistently of the same self-righteous and bellicose nature as this op-ed85OF2OGER#OHEN  Ukraine is today the pivot of a struggle between individual freedom and imprisoning empire. There is no halfway house in this confrontation and no escaping the imperative of MORALCLARITYINPICKINGSIDES6LADIMIR60UTINSUNLEASHED nationalism and Crimean land grab represent a return to %UROPES DARKEST DAYS !MERICANS AND %UROPEANS NEED TO stand together to resist this threat.

0RINCE #HARLES APPARENTLY JOINED THE CHORUS BY COMPARING Putin to Hitler. Other cooler observers who shared much the same sentiments, looked further. With Ossetia in mind they EXPECTED THAT EXTENDED AND INCREASINGLY BLOODY lGHTING 

*OHN * -EARSCHEIMER @'ETTING 5KRAINE 7RONG NYT, 13 March  85 2OGER#OHEN @'ETTYSBURGHONTHE-AIDAN NYT,-AY

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WITH .!4/ EITHER COVERTLY OR @BOOTS ON THE GROUND openly, supporting the Ukrainian army, would prompt INTERVENTION AND THE BROKERING OF A CEASE lRE BY SOME %UROPEAN -R "IG 4HE CEASE lRE LINE WOULD THEN gradually harden into an accepted and peaceful bloc boundary. (OWEVER THINGSTURNEDOUTRATHERDIFFERENTLY 1.

2.

Rebellion did indeed break out in the predominantly Russian-speaking provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, but the evidence that it was directly fomented by Russian plain-clothes agents, as in Crimea, is slim. The only leaked e-mail which Kiev has managed to produce as evidence of Russian involvement is from an in dependent and somewhat fanatic Russian nationalist, not known to be persona grata with the Kremlin. Indeed, Putin issued a strong statement, telling the two dissident provinces to abandon the independence referendum they planned for 11 May, and was rebuffed. The referendum went ahead. Convinced Cold Warriors claim that this was a playacting feint, and point to a number of Russian radio and TV stations urging residents in the two provinces to vote in spite of Moscow. But all the evidence points to the opposite conclusion. Russia really does not want to get INVOLVEDINANYDIRECTlGHTINGWITHEITHER5KRAINIANOR NATO forces. The Ukrainian government crack-down has been feeble and ineffective. The separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk have been reinforced by defections from the police and the army, and armed forces sent by Kiev to put down THEREBELLIONHAVESHOWNLITTLESTOMACHFORlGHTING4WO well-reported incidents of violence, involving, respectively seven and twenty deaths have been in Mariupol when Kiev tried to send in a new Police chief to take control OF THE POLICE WHO HAD JOINED THE SEPARATISTS AND SET OFF

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DEADLYlGHTINGINTHEWHOLETOWN ANDIN/DESSAWHERE SEPARATISTPRIVATEMILITIACLASHEDWITHEQUALLYPRIVATEPRO Kiev militia.  2EALOPPOSITIONHASCOMEONLYRECENTLY lNANCED NOT by the penniless and hugely indebted Ukrainian state but by Rinat Akhmetov, the billionaire steel king whose enterprises employ tens of thousands of people in the three provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Dnipropetrov, the industrial heartland of Ukraine, known as the $ONBAS!KHMETOVS7IKIPAEDIABIOGRAPHYCLAIMSTHAT INITIALLY HE PROVIDED A LARGE MEASURE OF lNANCIAL HELP for the separatists, but lately he has changed sides. On -AY REPORTSBEGANTOCOMEINOFAMAJOROFFENSIVE by several thousands of miners and steel workers employed by Akhemtov patrolling the streets of the industrial Maiupol and clearing up the barricades and destruction wrought six days before in the incident MENTIONEDABOVE4HESEPARATISTOFlCIALSWHOHADBEEN loyal to the newly proclaimed republic of Donetsk were reported to have melted away. Since then, the INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND MILITARILY TRAINED WORKERS militia has fanned out into other parts of the Donbas region.  3IMULTANEOUSLY 2USSIA ANNOUNCED THAT IT WAS withdrawing the troops that it had massed behind the closed frontier with Donetsk and Luhansk, while Americans claim that satellite pictures show any withdrawal to be token. STATES AND NATION-STATES

Russia, it seems has no intention of playing the bloc BOUNDARY SHIFTINGSCENARIOTOANYlNALSTABILIZINGACT0UTIN seems content to have greatly consolidated his domestic popularity. His appeal to Russian nationalism has proved

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FARMOREEFFECTIVETHAN!MERICASAPPEALTOITSCONSTITUENTS love of democracy. And on 22 May he further turned his back on Europe and NATO by linking the two Cold Wars nMAKINGA YEARDEALWITH#HINAFORTHEEXPORTOFGAS It is unlikely that this will produce a bloc with anything close to the relative solidarity of the Western bloc (Russia is still, as in its rapprochement with Japan, cooperatINGIN!MERICASPLANSTOENCIRCLEANDCONTAIN#HINA BUT it at least complicates the problems the West has to deal with. "UTEVEN!KHMETOVSBILLIONSAREEXHAUSTIBLE ANDPREsumably he would in the long run prefer to get his miners back to mining and his steel workers back to making steel. There is little prospect that whatever government is in power in Kiev will have the resources or command the unpaid loyalties of enough Ukrainian speakers to prevent the resurgence of the separatists when he decides to DO SO )T IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITHOUT ANY 2USSIAN direct intervention, a formally negotiated independence for Donbas will shift the bloc boundary peacefully to a stable position running through what is now the interior of Ukraine. Thereby, that would create two nation-states to replace one existing mere state, in this case failed mere state. (OWDOESONEDElNETHEDIFFERENCEBETWEENNATION STATE ANDMERESTATE-YDElNITIONISASFOLLOWS!NATION STATEIS a state in a bounded area, of which the population contains at least 50n PER CENT OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE A SUFlCIENTLY high degree of linguistic and cultural homogeneity to SEE THE STATE APPARATUS AS @THEIR STATE #HINA *APAN France, Russia with populations more than 90 per cent homogeneous, however divided into conservative factions OR @LOYAL OPPOSITION RADICALS ARE CLEARLY NATION STATES 3O was WASP America in the days before mass Latin American immigration.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

Nation-states are not only more likely to be effective and consistent in their international relations, they are also more likely to be able to eliminate domestic corruption ANDINEFlCIENCYINTHESTATEINSTITUTIONSnSEEFORINSTANCE the way in which the hereditary nepotism and corruption of mid-nineteenth century Britain was cured by domestic pressure for meritocracy, brought about by the rising organization and political participation of a proudly British working class. (Even though, with the cure of petty CORRUPTIONnTHEPRIVATEUSEOFPUBLICINSTITUTIONALPOWER nTHEOTHERFORMOFCORRUPTIONnTHEARRIVALOFMASSARMIES of lobbyists acting as the intermediaries through which BUSINESSORGANIZATIONSBUYTHESERVICESOFPOLITICIANSnHAS grown.) In mere states like Ukraine, however, unbridled CORRUPTION CAN mOURISH IN AN ATMOSPHERE OF APATHY AND indifference. CONCLUSION

4OSUMUPTHEARGUMENTSOFTHISCHAPTER  4 HE MAIN SOURCE OF CONmICT IN %ASTERN AND #ENTRAL Europe has been the expansionist disguised imperialism of American-led NATO and European Union.  !S !MERICAS REPUTATION AND SOFT POWER CLOUT DECLINE with the slow loss of its relative economic hegemony and the increasingly poisonous divisions of its internal politics, the EU is becoming less and less willing to follow the American NATO lead.  #ONmICTBETWEENTHEPOLARPARTICIPANTSINTHETWO#OLD Wars, is much mitigated if there are clear uncontested boundaries between the two pairs of blocs and no buffer states, much less areas of actively disputed sovereignty such as in the Eastern and Southern China Seas.

THE NEW COLD WARS



 0 UTIN HAS EFFECTIVELY OUTMANOEUVRED /BAMA AND Washington, and the latter have expressed their frustration in a revival of the old Cold War ideological hatreds which have contributed to the decline in its soft power. The chapter has been about central Europe and the two cold wars in general, but I hold a similar view of the conduct of American policy in the hot war in the Middle East. One EXAMPLE THE RECENT REFUSAL OF AN !MERICAN SPOKESMAN TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT WAS ,AVROV WHO PULLED /BAMAS CHESTNUTS OUT OF THE lRE WHEN HE NEGOTIATED OVERNIGHT THE DESTRUCTION OF 3YRIAS CHEMICAL WEAPONS AND THEREBY LET /BAMA n WHO WAS COMMITTED TO BOMBING 3YRIA IN full knowledge that it would have counter-productive CONSEQUENCESANDWASDOMESTICALLYHIGHLYUNPOPULARnOFF the hook. 4HEOTHERMAJOREXAMPLE THEREFUSALTOREACHANEGOTIated settlement for Syria that would accept the fact that Assad is winning the civil war, by insisting that participation in the second Geneva meeting to negotiate such a setTLEMENTSHOULDACCEPTTHEDECISIONOFTHElRSTMEETINGTHAT Assad should step down in favour of a transitional government. This appears to be primarily a matter of face-saving rather than realpolitik, in spite of the fact that it thereby FOSTERSTHEJIHADISTFORCESINTHE-IDDLE%ASTASTHEYINCREASINGLYCAPTURETHEARMSOFTHE@MODERATE3YRIANOPPOSITION as they return to Syria after training by American troops in Jordan. /NE lNAL RATHER HILARIOUS POINT )T IS ONE OF THE greatest ironies to have become apparent in the run-up TO THE  -AY  ELECTION THAT THE &AR 2IGHT PARTIES THAT ARE CAUSING "RUSSELS TO TREMBLE n ,E 0EN IN &RANCE UKIP in the UK, Wilders in Holland, Haider in Austria, Jobbik in Hungary all share my favourable



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

view of Putin. Here is a recent assessment of their MOTIVES Even among far-right groups, the sympathy for Russia and suspicion of Washington are in part tactical. Focused on CLAWING BACK POWER FROM THE %UROPEAN 5NIONS BUREAUcracy, they seize any cause that puts them at odds with policy makers in Brussels and the conventional wisdom of European elites. "UTTHEYALSOREmECTAGENERALCRUMBLINGOFPUBLICTRUSTIN the beliefs and institutions that have dominated Europe since THEENDOF7ORLD7AR)) INCLUDINGTHE#ONTINENTSRELATIONship with the United States. @%UROPE IS A BIG SICK BODY  SAID !LAIN DE "ENOIST A &RENCHPHILOSOPHERANDALEADINGlGUREINA&RENCHSCHOOL OFPOLITICALTHOUGHTKNOWNASTHE@NEWRIGHT-RDE"ENoist said Russia ‘is now obviously the principal alternative to !MERICANHEGEMONY@-R0UTIN HEADDED ISPERHAPS@NOT THESAVIOROFHUMANITY BUT@THEREAREMANYGOODREASONSTO BEPRO 2USSIAN 3OME OF 2USSIAS %UROPEAN FANS PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH A RELIGIOUS BENT ARE ATTRACTED BY -R 0UTINS IMAGE as a muscular foe of homosexuality and decadent Western ways. Others, like Aymeric Chauprade, a foreign POLICY ADVISER TO THE .ATIONAL &RONTS LEADER -ARINE ,E Pen, are motivated more by geopolitical calculations that EMPHASIZE 2USSIAS ROLE AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO !MERICAN power.

)HOPEITISOBVIOUSTHATMYnAS)BELIEVE COOLANDRELATIVELY NON SUBJECTIVE n ARGUMENTS FOR BLAMING !MERICA and Europe more than Putin for the Ukrainian mess have 

!NDREW(IGGINS @&AR2IGHT&EVERFORA%UROPETIEDTO2USSIA NYT -AY

THE NEW COLD WARS



nothing to do with hatred either of homosexuality or of THE%UROPEANUNITYPROJECTINGENERAL HOWEVERCRITICAL) MIGHTBEOF"RUSSELS'ERMANICECONOMICPOLICYOFAUSTERITYANDITSmABBYFOREIGNPOLICY"UTBETTERAmABBYFOREIGN policy than a forceful and entirely US-NATO dominated one.

Chapter 8

FRIENDS, ALLIES AND ENEMIES

y One of the ways of looking at our world is as a pattern of alliances and confrontations. The patterns are formed from a variety of elements. Former colonial relations, for example, are still an important determinant of British-Indian relations, though much less so are British-Nigerian relations where the COLONIAL POWERS @CIVILIZING INmUENCE HAD A MUCH SHORTER time to do its work. Common language is, of course, crucial. The pro-American sentiment of the Anglophone members of the British Commonwealth is a crucial factor in UK-US relations, though much more crucial for Britain than for !MERICA 4HERE WAS MUCH TALK OF THE @SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WHEN"USHAND"LAIRWEREDRIVINGINTOTHE)RAQ7AR!TTHE time, Sir Roderick Quentin, a wise old diplomat who had been British ambassador in Moscow and later chairman of the Braithwaite Joint Intelligence Committee, wrote an op ed in the Financial Times to take on the Blair argument that retaining the trust of Bush was the British categorical imperative and therefore we must get our boots on and get in there TOHELPTHE!MERICANSMAKEAMESSOF)RAQ)TWASNONSENSE he said. The only Brits who were truly dependent on the 53WERETHESUBMARINECOMMANDERSWHOCOULDNTlREOFF their missiles until the Americans gave them the codes. But

FRIENDS, ALLIES AND ENEMIES



in 2003, at the height of the back-slapping camaraderie of Bush and Blair, the good sense of people like him was overWHELMEDBYEMOTION$IDNTTHE!MERICANSTWICESAVE"RITAINSBACONWHENSHEWASONTHEVERGEOFDEFEAT #LEARLY !MERICAS MOST IMPORTANT ALLIANCE TODAY IS THE MUCHMORESPECIALRELATIONSHIPWITH)SRAELnMOSTIMPORTANT BECAUSEITDOMINANTLYSHAPES!MERICASRELATIONSWITHMOST of the rest of the world bar Latin America. It is what leads to the absurdity of the American policy towards Syria. Assad, whatever massacres his father may have been responsible for, ran the only secular regime in the Middle East. He may have leaned towards the Shiites rather than the Sunni, but he promoted their peaceful coexistence. Then came the so-called @!RAB SPRING !MERICAS TOLERATED DESPOTS WENT DOWN LIKE ninepins to the force of popular revolt, Mubarak, then GadDAl4HEIRFALLWASHAILEDIN7ASHINGTONASAGREAT@6ICTORY FOR$EMOCRACY!SSADSSINWASTHATHEDIDNTSEEITTHATWAY He resisted the populist discontent which had toppled the others. Thus he was branded as anti-democratic and a menace to worldwide democracy. !NDEVENNOW THATISHISDElNITIVELABELLINGINTHE7ASHington world-view in spite of the chaotic authoritarian mess THAT @DEMOCRACY BROUGHT TO %GYPT AND ,IBYA )RAQ AND Afghanistan. Thus, America backed the unholy alliance of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel to mount a sectarian Sunni Attack on Assad, resulting in the creation of the monster ISIS WHICHBEHEADSJOURNALISTSON46%VENNOW WHEN!SSADIS crucial to any attempt to deal with ISIS, he remains labelled ASANENEMYOFDEMOCRACYANDTHE5NITED3TATESnAFRIENDOF Iran and Hamas and Hezbollah, i.e. of the enemies of Israel. And basically it is all about Iran. One of the chief ironies of the modern age is the way that Israel, the nuclear bomb STATE WHICH REFUSES TO JOIN THE .UCLEAR .ON PROLIFERATION 4REATY ISAMAJORFORCEINMAKINGSURETHAT!MERICATREATS that absurd treaty as the Ark of the Covenant, a grand moral



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

MISSIONTOPRESERVE)SRAELSNUCLEARMONOPOLYINTHE-IDDLE East. Although he never says so, doubtless one good reason why Henry Kissinger believes in getting along with China87 is in order to secure its cooperation in maintaining the USdominated order, including the NPT It is amusing to recall that this is the Kissinger who, according to that splendid chronicler, Seymour Hersh, in HADNOTHINGBUTCONTEMPTFORTHE533TATE$EPARTMENTSPLANSFORPUSHINGTHE.04(EQUOTES-ORTON(ALPERIN +ISSINGERSCLOSESTASSOCIATEONTHE.ATIONAL3ECURITY #OUNCILSTAFF Henry believed it was good to spread nuclear weapons around the world. I heard him say that if he were the Israelis he would get nuclear weapons. He did not believe that the United States should try to talk them out of it…..Japan, as well as Israel would be better off with the bomb than without it….nuclear weapons were essential to the security OF BOTH NATIONS x+ISSINGERS VIEW WAS ESSENTIALLY PRAGMATICxMOSTOFTHEMAJORPOWERSWOULDEVENTUALLYOBTAIN NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE 5NITED 3TATES COULD BENElT THE most by helping them to do so rather than by participating in futile exercises in morality such as the Non-proliferation Treaty.

In fact, it transpired, Lyndon Johnson had already decided to help Israel to get its bomb. Israel sought to purchase ADVANCEDlGHTER BOMBERSCAPABLEOFDELIVERINGAWARHEAD THE& S4HE3TATE$EPARTMENTWASTRYINGTOMAKETHESALE conditional on Israel agreeing to sign the NPT and accept inspections from the AEC. Johnson, for reasons about which Hersh can only speculate, told them to stop trying to attach conditions and sell the Israelis anything they wanted. 87

H. Kissinger, On China, 2011.

FRIENDS, ALLIES AND ENEMIES



4HENCEFORTH ALL OFlCIAL PRESSURE ON )SRAEL CEASED THOUGH *OHNSON WHENTHE.04WASlNALLYSIGNEDWITH-OSCOWS cooperation, hailed it as one of the greatest achievements of his presidency. In fact, of course, however good might have been the intentions of its creators, today that treaty is the single most probable cause of war. Chirac once said at an indiscreet MOMENT @) CANT UNDERSTAND ALL THIS FUSS ABOUT THE )RANIAN bomb. They know and everyone else knows that before an Iranian missile had entered the upper atmosphere, Teheran WOULD BE OBLITERATED 4OO TRUE /NE WOULD LOVE TO HAVE ACCESS TO THE mURRY OF TRANSATLANTIC CALLS THAT CAUSED #HIRAC to retract the next day and say that perhaps he had been too mIPPANT Thus, we have got into a world where speaking the truth ISDISMISSEDASmIPPANCYWHENITRUNSCOUNTERTO!MERICAS lCTIONS/FCOURSE#HIRACISRIGHT AS+ENNETH7ALTZ ONEOF the most clear-minded of political scientists, has always been right. It is the criss-crossing pattern of probable or certain retaliation capacities that keeps the peace, not the NPT. That treaty serves only to provide aggressive hawks with a highmoral-purpose excuse for impoverishing the Iranian people with sanctions, or bombing them to hell. Any sensible person would say, as John Mearsheimer reiterated in his recent Foreign Affairs article,88 let the Iranians have their bomb if they think that is the only way to ASENSEOFNATIONALPRIDEANDSECURITYANDDONTCAREABOUT the opportunity cost they would pay in slowing down their growth in national prosperity. The reason why such good sense cuts no ice in Washington is obvious. The most articulate and wealthy, and therefore powerful, organized segment of the American electorate *OHN*-EARSHSHEIMER @7HYTHE5KRAINECRISISISTHE7ESTSFAULT 4HE,IBERAL$ELUSIONTHATPROVOKED0UTIN Foreign Affairs, 93, v.

88



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

nANDESPECIALLYOFTHOSEWHOELECTAPRESIDENTnARETHOSE people of Jewish ancestry who have vast sums of money and a strong sentimental attachment to Israel that overrides most of their other interests. But there is a glimmer of hope. That the expansionist Israeli elite will push too far. Recent speeches by Israeli ministers both of defence and of the economy have made clear that wimpish talk of a two-state solution is simply for the conference table, while Israel steadily creates facts on the ground and annexes the whole West Bank. This was too much for the executive director of the American Jewish Committee, David Harris who made an unprecedented, and what Roger Cohen in the New York Times called punchy, attack on those ministers. So there is hope for America and the world. In the next generation of Jewish Americans, common humanity, good sense and decency may begin to win out over ancestral loyalties. By that time though, the only road to election as President may well be not so much by supporting Israel through thick and THIN BUTBYRESPONDINGTOREDNECK!MERICASINmAMEDANTI Russian sentiment. For the forty stable years of the old Cold War, the military frontier between NATO and the Warsaw Pact had run through Germany. After 1990, the line settled down, with apparently similar stability, to the boundaries of Finland, 0OLAND "ULGARIAAND2OMANIA-EARSHEIMERINANINmUENTIAL article,89 predicted the end of NATO. Neither Anericans nor Europeans, he said, would be prepared to pay for it now that the image of all those Russian tanks massed on the West German frontier had been banished. We were into a multi-polar world. *OHN*-EARSHEIMER @"ACKTOTHE&UTURE)NSTABILITYIN%UROPE!FTER THE#OLD7AR International Security 6OL .O3UMMER PPn

89

FRIENDS, ALLIES AND ENEMIES



But he was wrong. America preserved NATO as an instrument of imperialist expansion. They took advantage of the chaos Yeltsin created in Russia to try to push the NATO frontier further to the east of Georgia and Ukraine, WEAKLYAIDEDBY"RUSSELSATTEMPTSTOPUSHTHEBOUNDARIESOF THE%UROPEAN5NIONSPHEREOFINmUENCEALONGWITHTHEM 7EAKLY!STHE3TATE$EPARTMENTS6ICTORIA.ULANDPUTIT INTHATFAMOUS@FUCKTHE%5TELEPHONECALL "AN+I-OONS UN was a much more reliable satellite-ally.) But as Russia TOO RECOVERED ITS PRIDE AND SELL CONlDENCE 0UTIN AND HIS CLEVER&OREIGN-INISTER,AVROV QUITEREASONABLYANDEFFECtively fought back. 4HElRSTCONFRONTATIONCAMEIN'EORGIA ABORDERCOUNtry of uncertain allegiance like Ukraine. There, after a brief war, the boundary between NATO and the Russian FedERATION BECAME lXED PEACEFUL AND UNCHALLENGED BY 2USSIAS DE FACTO ANNEXATION OF !BKHAZIA AND 3OUTH /SSETIA ANDASIZEABLEmOWOFNON 2USSIAN SPEAKINGREFUGEESFROM Ossetia. Russia is trying to create another peaceful settled frontier by likewise dividing Ukraine, detaching and incorporating its eastern half, and dealing as humanely as possible WITHTHEmOWOFNON 2USSIANSPEAKERSBACKACROSSTHEBORder into Ukraine. That process is taking time. Meanwhile, the result is the intense hotting up of the US-Russia Cold War. Russia seems to be winning on points, and Washington can only reply with impotent imprecations and sanctions of uncertain effect. As a result, the Americans have obviously put on hold their other Cold War with China. That has given Japan something of a respite from American criticism, but in the LONGRUN WHOKNOWS4HEHOTWARINTHE-IDDLE%ASTnTHE proxy US-Russia war, the Lavrov-Kerry duel, intricately BOUND UP WITH THE 3HIA 3UNNI WAR n STILL DRAGS ON PRODUCING NEEDLESS CHAOS mOODS OF REFUGEES AND VAST HUMAN

150

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

suffering. The feeble and contradictory Obama attempt to mobilize opposition to the growing power of ISIS while sustaining all opposition to Assad in Syria (still the only non-religious secular state in the region) may be temporarily popular thanks to brutal beheadings on You Tube, but in the long run, its obvious failure may produce such an apathetic isolationism in the American public as fundamentally to change American policy in spite of the strength of the Israeli lobby.

Chapter 9

HUMAN PROGRESS…?

y I hope the reader will forgive any hint of narcissism with which I begin, but my autobiography does, I think, help to explain why I hold the views I develop in this chapter. In 1985, when I was working at the ill-fated Technical #HANGE#ENTREFUNDEDJOINTLYBY"RITAINS3CIENCE2ESEARCH Council and the Social Science Research Council), I organized a conference at Farnham Castle on technical change and citizenship. I wrote for it a discussion paper (since apparently lost even from the SSRC archives) a main theme of WHICHWASWHAT)CALLEDTHE@3IXTY &ORTY3OCIETY)MEANT that British society of that time could roughly be characterIZEDASASOCIETYINWHICHPERCENTOFTHEPOPULATIONHAD STEADY JOBS SKILLS TO MARKET IN A LABOUR MARKET WITH MORE JOBOFFERSTHANJOB SEEKERS ACAR AFAMILY ANDPROSPECTSOF a steadily, if slowly rising income, while forty per cent were people in more precarious and low-paid employment, and a LABOURMARKETINWHICHJOB SEEKERSWEREINCREASINGLYOUT NUMBERINGJOBOFFERS )TPREDICTEDTHEGRADUALDWINDLINGOFTHATPERCENT PRImarily as a result of technical change replacing labour with CAPITAL INTENSIVETECHNIQUES

152

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

)TWASATHEMEWHICHHADFASCINATEDMESINCE WHEN as a post-graduate student, awaiting a visa to do post-graduate research in Japan (a three-year wait) I set about trying to educate myself by smuggling myself into lectures at the LSE. One lecture course that greatly impressed me was that OF-ORRIS'INSBERGON@4HEIDEAOF0ROGRESS!SCHOLARLY rabbinical caricature of the absent-minded professor, Ginsberg took us through the optimism of Kant and Durkheim and Herbert Spencer to the disillusionment of the 1930s and THE(OLOCAUST ALLINANOBJECTIVE UNEMOTIONALSPIRITOFDISsection of the human animal such as one might write about monkeys or elephants. 4HATTAUGHTMETHATWHATONECANANALYSEOBJECTIVELYAND UNEMOTIONALLYIS@SOCIALCHANGEANDTHATTOCALLSOCIALCHANGE @PROGRESSUSUALLY  ) NTRODUCESSUBJECTIVEPERSONALJUDGEMENTS@CHANGEFORTHE BETTER 2. Implies some assumption of historical continuity and unidirectionality of the change, and either (a) some theory as to the mechanisms inbuilt into human beings which explain this. OR (b) some theory or theology of the universe which explains it in teleological terms

/NECANCHARACTERIZEMYPAPERASANANALYSISOFSOCIAL CHANGESUBJECTIVELYSEENAS@REGRESSRATHERTHAN@PROGRESS !NDWHAT)SEEAROUNDMETODAYCONlRMSTHATJUDGEMENT The Sixty/Forty Society has become the Twenty/Eighty 3OCIETY4WENTYPERCENTOFTHEPOPULATIONENJOYSTEADILY AND IN SOME SECTORS LIKE lNANCE RAPIDLY RISING INCOMES IN LABOURMARKETSWITHFARMOREJOB OFFERINGSTHANJOB SEEKERS THEY ENJOY EVER MORE CREATURE COMFORTS AND OWN AN EVER increasing share of accumulated capital. Meanwhile, for the

HUMAN PROGRESS…?

153

OTHERPERCENT INLABOURMARKETSWITHFARMOREJOB SEEKERS THAN JOB OFFERS INCOMES STAGNATE A SENSE OF SELF WORTH becomes ever more precarious, and few believe that their children, if they ever manage to have any, might be better off than themselves. That background is enough to explain why the reviews SENT ME OFF IMMEDIATELY TO GET A COPY OF 3TEVEN 0INKERS The Better Angels of Our Nature90 billed as demonstrating that by documenting the incidence of all kinds of violence from the thirteenth century to today, one can show that there IS a bumpy but consistent trend towards their reduction, and THAT FEW PEOPLE WOULD NOT SHARE THE SUBJECTIVE JUDGEMENT THATCALLSTHIS@PROGRESS 0INKERSBOOKISAWONDERFULEXAMPLEOFWHATABRILLIANT well-stocked and wide-ranging mind capable of surprising leaps of lateral thinking, can do when supported by a large contingent of research assistants. Among his detractors is Paul Gray, reviewing him in Prospect91 The idea that a new world can be constructed through the rational application of force is peculiarly modern, animating ideas of revolutionary war and pedagogic TERROR THAT FEATURE IN AN INmUENTIAL TRADITION OF RADIcal Enlightenment thinking. Downplaying this tradition is extremely important for Pinker. Along with liberal humanists everywhere, he regards the core of the Enlightenment as a commitment to rationality. The fact that PROMINENT%NLIGHTENMENTlGURESHAVEFAVOUREDVIOLENCE AS AN INSTRUMENT OF SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION IS n TO PUT IT MILDLYnINCONVENIENT

90

The Better Angels of our Nature: Why Violence has declined, Viking Books,  P 91 @$ELUSIONSOF0EACE Prospect, October 2011.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

)NCONVENIENT ,OOK FOR INSTANCE AT 0INKERS PAGES n3, for his collection of a wide range of expressions by many EMINENTPEOPLEOFWHATHECALLSTHE@ROMANTICMILITARISMOF those Enlightenment thinkers. He does not gloss over their evidence as inconvenient, but offers a careful documentation of a once taken-for-granted social norm which has been superseded. That is a typical example of the pleasures and surprises of 0INKERSBOOK!NOTHERISTHECLARITYOFEXPOSITIONOFDIFlCULT CONCEPTSSEE FOREXAMPLEHISLENGTHYDIGRESSIONSINTOPROBability theory or games theory. "UT IN SPITE OF MY GENERAL ADMIRATION FOR 0INKERS book, I have three criticisms of his thesis. One concerns his failure to say much about, or even acknowledge the twenty-eighty phenomenon or the inheritance mechanisms, genetic and social which produce it. The second is his use of games theory, the third, his treatment of another form of Instinctive Gut Optimism, different from his, namely the thesis of a steady trend towards world government. I have already written at length in earlier chapters about THEINEQUALITYPROBLEM(ERE)WILLCONCENTRATEONTHEOTHER two. "UTlRSTSOMEGENERALREMARKSONHISPRIMARYTHESISWHICH is, as his subtitle suggests, that human history shows a steady reduction in the incidence of violence. The evidence that he has carefully amassed is convincing. There does seem to be a long-range, bumpy, but directionally consistent trend from the thirteenth century when life really was nasty brutish and short, to present-day Europe when almost everyone dies in bed.92

92

Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of our Nature: Why Violence has declined, 6IKING"OOKS  P

HUMAN PROGRESS…?

155

In 1981 the political scientist Ted Robert Gurr, using old court and county records, calculated thirty estimates of homicide rates at various times in English history, combined them with modern records from London and plotted them on a graph…. From the 13th century to the 20th, homicide in VARIOUSPARTSOF%NGLANDPLUMMETEDBYAFACTOROFTEN lFTY ANDINSOMECASESAHUNDREDnFOREXAMPLE FROMHOMICIDESPER PEOPLEPERYEARINth century Oxford to less than 1 homicide per 100,000 in mid 20th century London…..The discovery confounds every stereotype about the idyllic past and the degenerate present.

And yet…… It was the twentieth century, in particular the S WHICHCOINEDTHEWORDGENOCIDE&ORMOSTOFHUMAN history, as Pinker records at length, the phenomenon, if not THEWORDHADBEENCOMMONPLACEnAJUNGLE LIFEMATTEROF hunters wiping out gatherers, horticulturalists wiping out hunters, Leviathan state-creating settlers wiping out indigenous populations as in America and Australia, etc. But here was something new and different, namely a deliberately planned and monstrously executed assault of one highly educated ethnic group on another. Pinker himself, to describe this period, borrows from Mathew White the term HemoCLYSM THEBLOODmOW93 .OTJUSTANUNFATHOMABLETRAGEDYINITSHUMANTOLL BUTAN UPHEAVALINHUMANITYSUNDERSTANDINGOFITSHISTORICALMOVEment…..the recrudescence of a death instinct, the trial of modernity, an indictment of Western civilization, a Faustian bargain with science and technology.

How can one reconcile that, and the shift to a twentyeighty society, with the alleged increasing gentleness which, 93

P. 191.



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

he shows, infused the relations between individuals as neighbours? Those were statistics about homicide. What about wars? !GAIN0INKERHASCOMPELLINGlGURES In absolute numbers, annual battle deaths have fallen by more than 90 per cent, from about half a million per year in THELATESTOTHIRTYTHOUSANDPERYEARINTHEEARLYS 3OBELIEVEITORNOT FROMAGLOBALHISTORICALANDQUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE THE DREAMS OF THE S FOLKSONGS HAVE COME true.

4HETWENTY lRSTCENTURYHASSEENREMARKABLEDEVELOPMENTS in the technologies of killing and also in the volumes of cash used by nation-states to gather intelligence about other states and non-state societies which their leaders and publics consider to be their adversaries. Today, for example, a Washington control-room, with several drones constantly AIRBORNE AND FULLY EQUIPPED WITH LASER BOMBS MIGHT GET FULLY AUTHENTICATED INFORMATION THAT A PROMINENT JIHADIST opponent of the US will for the next two hours be attending a wedding party in Afghanistan at coordinates X,Y. But, as Pinker points out, the outcry in the West about the ‘collatERALDAMAGETOHISFAMILYANDWEDDINGGUESTSWHICHWOULD BEAROUSEDBY@TAKINGHIMOUTFORBIDSIT3OTHEYWAITUNTIL they hear that he will be travelling in a car that an agent has bugged with a sensor, so that the collateral victims may be only a driver. 4HENICETIESOFSUCHSITUATIONSISNOTWHAT0INKERSBOOKIS primarily about. His primary purpose is to convince sceptics OFHISBASICTHESISTHAT95  95

P. 302. P. xxi.

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157

Violence has declined over long stretches of time, and today we may be living in the most peaceable era of our existence. The decline, to be sure, has not been smooth. It has not brought violence down to zero and it is not guaranteed to continue. But it is an unmistakable development, visible on scales from millennia to years, from the waging of wars to the spanking of children.

He sees the need to emphasize this because our perceptions are affected by the fact that our standards have improved as MUCHASOURBEHAVIOUR xTHE LETHAL INJECTION OF A MURDERER IN 4EXAS OR AN OCCAsional hate crime in which a member of an ethnic minority is intimidated by hooligans, is pretty mild stuff. But from a contemporary vantage point we see them as signs of how low our behaviour has sunk, not as of how high our standards have risen. CHANGING PERCEPTIONS: AGGRESSION

Pinker is right. Such changes in socially shared perceptions, evaluations, do indeed occur all the time, particularly as a result of generational changes in shared experience and memories. /NEOTHEREXAMPLEISTHENOTIONOF@AGGRESSION @AGGRESSIVE 4O ANYONE OVER SIXTY THE WORDS @AGGRESSION@AGGRESSIVE CONJURE UP NOTIONS OF (ITLER AND -USSOLINI OF THE EVIL TO abolish which the Second World War was fought, the evil which was to be abolished for ever from the history of mankind by the creation of the United Nations Organization ANDITS#HARTERSPROVISIONSFORSUPPRESSINGANYAGGRESSIONBY obligatory collective action. 

P. xxii.

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&ORTWENTYYEAROLDS HOWEVER @AGGRESSIVECANSOMETIMES BEUSEDNOTTOCONDEMN BUTTOMEANQUITEACCEPTABLESELF ASSERTION 4HE 7IKIPEDIA DElNITION OF @AGGRESSION STICKS consistently to the old notion of something universally CONDEMNED BUTITCONCLUDES Aggression differs from what is commonly called assertiveness, although the terms are often used interchangeably among lay people (as in phrases such as ‘an aggressive salesPERSON 

4HATDISTINCTIONBETWEEN@LAYPEOPLEANDnWHOEXACTLY@THE EDUCATED CULTIVATED PERSON n IS MY DISTINCTION BETWEEN young and old. Norms shift through time. One obvious reason is the steadily increasing effectiveness, and hard-to-learn complexity of the technology we use. Another might be some SORTOF@CIVILIZINGPROCESSSUCHAS0INKERPROPOSES GAMES THEORY

)HAVEALREADYDEALTATLENGTHWITHTHEINEQUALITYPROBLEMIN previous chapters. Here I will address the other two. "UTlRSTAFEWGENERALREMARKS0INKERSEXPOSITIONOFDIFlCULTCONCEPTSISADMIRABLE3EE FORINSTANCE THEPAGESHE DEVOTESTOPROBABILITYTHEORY%QUALLYSOPHISTICATEDISHISUSE OF GAMES THEORY IN PARTICULAR THE 0RISONERS $ILEMMA AND variations on it, the Dictator Game, the Escalation Game, the 0ACIlST'AME THE0UBLIC'OODSGAME THE4RUST'AME THE Tragedy of the Commons, the Ultimatum Game, the War of Attrition Game. The paradigm is the distinction between a one-off PrisONERS$ILEMMA'AMEANDREPEATEDPLAYSTHEREOF4HEGENerally accepted thesis, which Pinker endorses, is that therein lies the origins of cooperation. In a one-off game both lose because they give the highest priority to minimizing their

HUMAN PROGRESS…?

159

losses, assuming that their isolated fellow-prisoner will use the same strategy as themselves. With repeated plays they come to realize that by choosing a trust strategy they can produce shared positive outcomes. That realization provides the rationale for cooperation. 4HEmAW ITSEEMSTOMEISTHATITEXPLAINSCOOPERATION as a product solely of rational self-interest maximization, which is an impoverished notion of human motivation. In practice, human interactions rarely simulate the paradigm of two actors kept in isolation in separate cells. Most interactions are between people who know, or know something about, each other. That means that their interactions are determined not solely by calculation of material interest, but also by friendship, hatred, admiration, respect, contempt, envy. None of those six terms appear in his index. Pinker, one MIGHTSAYISATRUE@PHILOSOPHER(EWOULDAGREEWITH"ERTRAND2USSELLINTHELATTERSSCATHINGREJECTION97OF2OUSSEAUS )NTUITIONISM CONTRASTINGITWITH4HOMAS!QUINASSEARCHFOR PROOFOF'ODSEXISTENCE For my part, I prefer the ontological argument, the cosmological argument, and the rest of the old stock-intrade, to the sentimental illogicality that has sprung from 2OUSSEAU 4HE OLD ARGUMENTS AT LEAST WERE HONEST IF valid they proved their point, if invalid it was open to any critic to prove them so. But the new theology of the heart dispenses with argument……it allows us to indulge in pleasant dreams

Pinker is somewhat less scathing. He does indeed acknowledge98THAT History of Western Philosophy, !LLENAND5NWIN  P 0

97 98



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

It is not easy to distinguish empathy from reason, the heart from the head. But the limited reach of empathy, with its AFlNITYFORPEOPLELIKEUSANDCLOSETOUS SUGGESTSTHATEMPAthy needs the universalizing boost of reason to bring about changes in policies and norms that actually reduce violence in the world.

That, it seems to me, is an a priori assumption, not something for which he provides evidence. TOWARDS WORLD GOVERNMENT?

Pinker offers a lengthy and interesting account of Hobbes ideas, and shows with numerous historical instances that the arrival of Leviathan, of states which claim a monopoly of the coercive use of violence does indeed lead to a marked reduction in homicide in particular and the level of violence in general. But he does not give much space to another Optimist thesis, namely that history shows a trend towards world government which, recently much accelerated by globalization, will eventually lead to a single world government, with a world monopoly of the means of coerCIVE VIOLENCE TO WHICH ALL @LOCAL STATES WILL BE SUBORDInated. According to Pinker ‘Today, the campaign for world govERNMENT LIVES ON MAINLY AMONG KOOKS AND SCIENCE lCTION FANS99 )DONTREADMUCHSCIENCElCTION SO)MUSTBEAKOOK&OR me, the institutional fumblings towards some kind of world GOVERNMENTTOWHICHALL@LOCALSTATESARESUBORDINATED ISTHE one long-term trend, more convincing than statistical trends in homicide, war, rape, theft or general criminality, that provides evidence of the emergence of our better angels. 99

P. 289.

HUMAN PROGRESS…?



The outlines of that thesis are well known. It begins with pure ideas, notably the Kantian proposals for universal peace, about which Pinker has some perceptive things to say. .OTABLYHISSPELLINGOUTOF+ANTSTHREEPREREQUISITESREPUBlican-democratic government, a world federation of states WITH RESPECT FOR LAW AND POROSITY OF BORDERS n FREE TRADE free movement of individuals.)100 Then came the Napoleonic attempt to make French Government into that world federaTIONBYCONQUEST7HATSEEMEDINTOBE.APOLEONS lNAL DEFEAT HE SUBSEQUENTLY CAME BACK FOR HIS (UNDRED $AYSlNALmING BROUGHTTHElRSTIMPORTANTANDINNOVATIVE institutional step towards a consensual form of world governMENTnTHE#ONGRESSOF6IENNA ANDTHECONSCIOUSOBJECTIVE OFMAINTAININGANINTERSTATE@BALANCEOFPOWER 4HAT BALANCE OF POWER WAS BOLDLY CONSTRUCTED n RECONSTRUCTEDnBYREDRAWINGTHETERRITORIALBOUNDARIESOFSTATES cutting off bits of France here, adding bits to Prussia and 2USSIATHERE INAMANNERWHICHFREQUENTLYOVER RODEETHNIC and linguistic boundaries. @#ONGRESS WAS ACTUALLY SOMETHING OF A MISNOMER !S 7IKIPEDIARECORDS )NATECHNICALSENSE THE@#ONGRESSOF6IENNAWASNOTPROPERLYA#ONGRESSITNEVERMETINPLENARYSESSION ANDMOSTOF the discussions occurred in informal, face-to-face, sessions among the Great Powers of Austria, Britain, France, Russia, and sometimes Prussia, with limited or no participation by other delegates.

It was, in other words, a Quadruple Alliance, made into a Quintuple Alliance in 1818 when Talleyrand succeeded in rehabilitating France. Being a deal between states which had NOUSEFORTHENOTIONOFTHE@NATION STATEACONTEMPTSHARED 0Pn

100



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

by Pinker101) it was vulnerable to the rise in nationalism which Napoleon had set in train, diffusing throughout Europe the ideals of the American and French Revolutions. Nevertheless, that Alliance survived the nationalist revolts OF"UTTHEREAFTERITBEGANTOUNRAVELASRIVALRIESAMONG the Five became more and more overt. It was patched up after the Franco-German War by the Treaty of Berlin of 1878 which now included a sixth state, the Ottoman Empire. 4HATTREATYSOUGHTTOSETTLESPHERESOFINmUENCEINTHE"ALkans and led eventually to the independence of Romania, "ULGARIA -ONTENEGROAND3ERBIAnSTATESMOREDESERVINGOF THE TITLE @NATION STATES n THOUGH IT ALSO SPELLED OUT PRINCIples governing the rights of minorities, later adopted by the ,EAGUEOF.ATIONS)TDIDNOTHINGTOSTOPTHEJOSTLINGINTHE Balkans, however, with its accumulating resentments. The last meeting, (an actual meeting), of the Concert of Europe SOUGHTUNSUCCESSFULLYTOCALMTHISJOSTLINGANDAGREESPHERE OF INmUENCE BOUNDARIES WAS THE ,ONDON #ONFERENCE OF 1912n)N*ULY "RITAINMADEALAST DITCHATTEMPT TODEFUSEWHATHADBYTHENBECOMETHE@"ALKANCRISIS BUT by this time the hostile division between the Triple Entente (France, Russia and Britain) and the Triple Alliance (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy) had become so sharp and unbridgeable that Germany and Austria refused to attend. Thus followed the carnage of the First World War. That had enough of a sobering effect to prompt a second step towards world government, namely the creation of the League of Nations at Versailles in 1919. This built on many of the ideas and institutional arrangements of nineteenthcentury conferences for the control of interstate aggression, BUT WAS FATALLY mAWED BY BEING PART OF A SETTLEMENT CONVENEDBYTHEVICTORSPRIMARILYTOPUNISHTHEVANQUISHED)T gave the Germans a heavy burden of reparations which led 0

101

HUMAN PROGRESS…?



to their eternal resentment and to the rise of Hitler. It also succeeded in arousing the resentment of one of the victors, NAMELY *APAN WHICH LATER BECAME THE lRST NATION TO DEFY THE,EAGUESANTI AGGRESSIONRULESIN-ANCHURIAANDTOMAKE a dramatic withdrawal from the League, an event which PROVEDTOBETHElRSTSTEPTOTHE,EAGUESSUBSEQUENTCOLlapse. Japan, the only nation among the victors which was not European-Caucasian, had proposed that the League #HARTERSHOULDINCLUDEADECLARATIONOFRACIALEQUALITY4HE !NGLOPHONEPOWERSREFUSED INDEFERENCETO!USTRALIASINSIStence on keeping out all except white immigrants. Thus on to the Second World War, resulting in a total eclipse of British by American imperial power, and the subSEQUENTCLINGINGOF"RITAINTOITSSUBSERVIENTCLIENTRELATIONTO THE5NITED3TATESnEUPHEMISTICALLYCALLEDA@SPECIALRELATIONSHIPWHICHSTILL INSPITEOFTHE3UEZDEBACLEOFWHEN Eisenhower called the duplicitous Eden to order, allows Brits TOBELIEVETHAT WITHTHEIRSOPHISTICATION THEYCANINmUENCE NAÕVE!MERICANSANDTHUS@PUNCHABOVETHEIRWEIGHT Between the US ending the war with atom bombs IN !UGUST  AND 2USSIAS lRST TEST OF A NUCLEAR BOMB IN THEREWASANINTERVALINWHICHTHE5NITED3TATESHAD a clear military superiority. Land warfare, constant skirmishing between the US bloc and the Russian bloc, continued in those fraught years. The skirmishing culminated in the Soviet abandonment of its attempt to engulf Berlin and incorporate it into East Germany followed by the formal institutionalizaTIONOFTHE#OLD7ARINTHE4RUMAN$OCTRINEOF Throughout that time the US had the military capability to destroy the nuclear weapons research facilities of its rival, Russia, and make itself the unrivalled military hegemon of the whole world. It is a fascinating paradox that the only prominent person who urged that it should actually do so WASTHEPHILOSOPHEROFPEACE THEJAILEDCONSCIENTIOUSPACIlST OFTHE&IRST7ORLD7AR "ERTRAND2USSELL



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

x JUST AFTER THE ATOMIC BOMBS EXPLODED OVER (IROSHIMA and Nagasaki, Russell wrote letters, and published articles in NEWSPAPERSFROMn STATINGCLEARLYTHATITWASMORALLYJUSTIlEDANDBETTERTOGOTOWARAGAINSTTHE5332USING atomic bombs while the USA possessed them and before the USSR did. After the USSR exploded the atomic bomb, Russell changed his position 180 degrees and advocated now the total abolishment of atomic weapons.102 THE UNITED NATIONS

4HESIGNINGOFTHE5NITED.ATIONS#HARTERIN*ULYBY lFTY ONEMEMBERSTATESWASHAILEDASASIGNIlCANTTHIRDSTEP towards world government. It was the result of an initiative of Roosevelt in the closing months of the Second World War after the defeat of Germany and before the Japanese surrender. By the time it came into force in October, both countries and Italy, were under occupation by American TROOPS AND GOVERNED BY 53 ARMY HEADQUARTERS THROUGH indigenous puppet regimes. 2OOSEVELTWASFULLYAWAREOFTHECHIEFmAWOFTHE6ERSAILLES TREATY n THAT A ,EAGUE SUPPOSEDLY DEDICATED TO A LONG TERM reform of international affairs was intermixed with punitive MEASURESINmICTEDONTHEVANQUISHEDBYTHEVICTORS.EVERTHEless, although there were prominent Americans who ‘thought FORTHEWORLDLONG TERMANDWHODIDADVOCATEANORGANIZATION WHICH EQUALLY EMBRACED VICTOR AND VANQUISHED 2OOSEVELTS5.NEVERSHOOKOFFITSCHARACTERASA6ICTORS#HARTER only slightly less crassly punitive than the Versailles settlement. But that is not how Pinker sees it. He sees it as the beginning of the Long Peace, which, indeed, might at some time be broken, even the likelihood of such a break diminishes daily as he argues in his long exposition of the laws of probability. 102

Wikipedia, Bertrand Russell.

HUMAN PROGRESS…?



"UT THE CHIEF mAW IN 0INKERS PERCEPTION OF THAT ,ONG 0EACESINCEISTHATHEDOESNOTSEETHECREATIONOFTHE 5.ASABY PRODUCTOF!MERICASDEFACTOHEGEMONY BUTAS ANACHIEVEMENTOFTHEATTEMPTOFOUR@BETTERANGELSTOWORK towards world peace. The Charter assumes that there were inherently good states and inherently bad states, and that the Charter was an alliance of the good states destined for ever to control the world. These assumptions were wholly unconcealed. Germany, Japan and Italy were not allowed to become members. The Charter referred to them (and still to this day refers to THEM AS@THEENEMYSTATES!RTICLESTATES 1.

2.

The Security Council shall, where appropriate, utilize such regional arrangements or agencies for enforcement action under its authority. But no enforcement action shall be taken under regional arrangements or by regional agencies without the authorization of the Security Council, with the exception of measures against any enemy state, AS DElNED IN PARAGRAPH  OF THIS !RTICLE PROVIDED FOR pursuant to Article 107 or in regional arrangements directed against renewal of aggressive policy on the part of any such state, until such time as the Organization may, ON REQUEST OF THE 'OVERNMENTS CONCERNED BE CHARGED with the responsibility for preventing further aggression by such a state. The term enemy state as used in paragraph 1 of this Article applies to any state which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory of the present Charter.

%QUALLYINDICATIVEOFTHEUNQUESTIONEDIDEOLOGICALHEGEMONY of the United States as victor was the Universal Declaration OF(UMAN2IGHTS ENDORSEDINBYFORTY EIGHTCOUNTIES 0INKERCALLSITTHE



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

xlRSTSIGNALEVENTx;DEMONSTRATINGTHAT=THEMENTALITYOF leaders and populaces had changed. Each component of the WAR FRIENDLYMIND SETnNATIONALISM TERRITORIALAMBITION AN international culture of honor, popular acceptance of war, ANDINDIFFERENCETOITSHUMANCOSTSnWENTOUTOFFASHIONIN developed counties in the second half of the 20th century.

It is worth recalling what that Universal Declaration said. !RTICLE!LLHUMANBEINGSAREBORNFREEANDEQUALINDIGNITY and rights. They are endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards each other in a spirit of brotherhood. Article 2. Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind such as race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status. Furthermore, no distinction shall be made on THE BASIS OF THE POLITICAL JURISDICTIONAL OR INSTITUTIONAL STAtus of the country or territory to which a person belongs, whether it be independent, trust, non-self-governing or under any other limitation of sovereignty. Article 3. Everyone has the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

0INKERSCOMMENT@)TISTEMPTINGTODISMISSTHISMANIFESTO ASFEEL GOODVERBIAGE)NSTEADITISTHEREPUDIATIONOF@ADOCtrine that had reigned for more than a century, namely that ultimate value was the nation, people, culture, Volk, class, or OTHERCOLLECTIVITY -YTEMPTATIONISTOSEEITDIFFERENTLYnASANASSERTIONOF !MERICANMORALSUPREMACYnANEXAMPLEOFTHEVICTORDICTATING TO THE VANQUISHED THE PRINCIPLES WHICH THEIR ACCEPtance of American hegemony implied that they should live by. That is precisely why it had to be shepherded by Eleanor

HUMAN PROGRESS…?



Roosevelt through eighty-three meetings, why it took the &OREIGN /FlCES OF &RANCE AND "RITAIN COMMITTED AS THEY were to their client relationship to the US, a long time to convince their governments to sign and why eight members OFTHEVANQUISHED3OVIETBLOCABSTAINED THE EVOLUTION OF THE UN

Of course, Article 53 of the UN Charter about enemy states IS NOW A DEAD LETTER JUST AS IS THE WHOLE OF #HAPTER 6)) which provides for all member states to prepare military units FOR IMMEDIATE AVAILABILITY TO FORM AT A MOMENTS NOTICE A UN army operating under the direction of a UN Military Staff Committee. There was a brief attempt to create such A#OMMITTEEATTHETIMEOF)RAQSBLATANTAGGRESSIONAGAINST +UWAIT BUTITWASQUICKLYKILLEDBYTHE53 SOTHATTHE'ULF War came nominally to be waged by a ‘coalition of the willINGDIRECTEDSOLELYBYTHE53WITHOUTANYUNWELCOMEINTERference from the UN. The only time, in fact, when American forces have worn blue helmets and fought as a United Nations force was at the time of the Korean War. That was made possible because Russia was at the time abstaining from all votes in the Security Council. It was doing so in protest against the American-organized decision of the UN General Assembly to give #HINASSEATONTHE3ECURITY#OUNCILTOTHE#HINESEEXILES who seized Taiwan, the Kuomintang rump, now deemed to be the sole legitimate government of the 1.3 billion Chinese people. That UN army was obviously a one-off, never likely to happen again. Meanwhile, the US retained its automatic MAJORITYIN5.'! ANDTHE5.REMAINED!MERICASPOOdle, voting regularly to exclude the obviously de facto China, for another twenty years. Finally, in 1972, the process of decolonization, and the accession of more than a hundred



CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

new members, not all of whom were clients of the US or ITSALLIES SAWTHEENDOF!MERICASAUTOMATIC5.'!MAJORITY!N!LBANIANRESOLUTIONTOGIVETHE"EIJINGGOVERNMENT the Security Council seat was successful. Kissinger, ever the realist, saw this coming and secretly engineered the dramatic Nixon visit to China. The Chinese were realistic too. It would be another DECADEBEFORE#HINASHOOKOFFTHEMALIGNINmUENCEOFPURItanically egalitarian Maoism and started on the astonishingly FASTGROWTHTRAJECTORYWHICHHASALREADYMADEITTHEWORLDS largest economy. The Chinese are realistically biding their TIME UNTIL n IN PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DECADES n IT BECOMES a much stronger economic and military power than the United States with the potential for real world hegemony. Whether it will take over from America control over the 5NITED .ATIONS BY CREATING ITS OWN AUTOMATIC MAJORITY IN UNGA, or choose to exercise its hegemony by some other means, remains to be seen. But, nobody who observes the growth of anti-Russian hysteria in the American public since the annexation of Crimea, can believe that the transition will be anything but bitter and adversarial. Who knows what will be its resolution? It might well be in technological development. One side or the other might develop a 95 per cent certain-hit anti-ballistic missile SYSTEMANDTHUSACQUIRETHElRST STRIKECAPABILITYWHOSELOSS "ERTRAND2USSELLDEPLOREDINTHELATES At the moment, the United States is manifestly losing its soft power prestige and its hard power clout through its conFUSEDANDFEEBLERESPONSETOTHEJIHADISTCHALLENGEOF)3)3 A response dominated much less by geopolitics and any ‘thinkINGFORTHEWORLDTHANBYFEAROFANOTHERINTHE53 As a result it has been forced to give up its attempt to control Ukraine, to try to shift the military boundary between a NATO bloc and a Russian Federation bloc to the Eastern frontier of an undivided Ukraine, and has had to allow

HUMAN PROGRESS…?



+IEVTOBOWTO2USSIASDEMANDFORAUTONOMYOFTHEEASTERN region. Meanwhile, in its preoccupation with Russia it is putting its Cold War with China on hold. The test of its success in this will be in whether it manages to keep China on its side in its struggle to use the NPT in order to prevent Iran from BREAKING )SRAELS MONOPOLY OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS 4HERE IS ALWAYSTHELIKELIHOODTHAT#HINAWILLJOIN2USSIAASAHABITUAL opponent of the US on the Security Council. It is hard to TELL#HINASPOLICY MAKINGPROCESSREMAINSOBSCURE)NSPITE of the vast sums the US spends on intelligence-gathering, I have yet to see an analysis which assesses the importance of the Chinese interest in retaining the friendship of Israel, and the access to innovative technology which that affords. The above ruminations on possible long-term trends canNOTBUTBEINmUENCEDBYWHATONEREADSINTHEPAPEREVERY day. Simon Kuper in an FTOPEDRECENTLYWARNED103 The distinction between news and deeper trends is crucial. 4HE&RENCH@!NNALESHISTORIANSTAUGHTUSTOSEEHISTORYNOT JUSTASAPARADEOFKINGS WARSANDREVOLUTIONSn@NEWS IFYOU LIKEnBUTASASTUDYOFHISTORICALSTRUCTURESINTHELONGTERM THE HISTORIAN &ERNAND "RAUDELS @LONGUE DURÏE /F COURSE those longer trends could turn malign. The coming trend is CLIMATECHANGE7EWONTPREVENTIT SOWELLHAVETOSUPpress its effects as well as we have pestilence and war.

4OSUMUPAGAIN MYASOPPOSEDTO0INKERS "ETTER!NGELS thesis that there is a long-term trend towards more rational COLLECTIVEWORLDGOVERNMENT CANBESUMMARIZEDASFOLLOWS  ! TEACHOFTHETHREE@STEPSTOWARDWORLDGOVERNMENTn #ONGRESSOF6IENNA 6ERSAILLES 3AN&RANCISCO 3IMON+UPER @4HEWORLDISGETTINGSAFER FT 3EPTEMBER

103

170

CANTANKEROUS ESSAYS

2.

 THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED REDUCTION IN THE @VICTOR PUNISHINGTHEVANQUISHEDELEMENTANDANINCREASEINTHE shared long-term movement towards a system of world ORDERWHICHTREATSVICTORANDVANQUISHEDEQUALLY The increase has been marked, but still a long way from conclusive. We are still a long way from a system in which all states defer to a shared world government. But THETHREESTEPSWERESIGNIlCANT4HEYALLCAMEONLYAFTER the sobering experience of disastrous wars, teaching men the follies of nationalist rivalries.

3O WHATISTHECRUCIALQUESTIONFORTHEFUTUREWHICHTHISPAST SUGGESTS)TISASOBERINGONE Does this mean that the fourth and decisive step is only likely to be taken after one more disastrous battle for world hegemony?

INDEX

y !BE3HINZOAND!BEn!SO GOVERNMENT XVII XIX      n n n  n n   ETSEQ     n 100 @!BENOMICS    n !BDUCTEES&AMILIES!SSOCIATION (Kazoku no Kai), 91, 95, 97 !BKHAZIA   ABM Treaty, See !NTInBALLISTIC Missile Treaty !DJARA  !EROmOT  !FGHANISTAN          !GREED&RAMEWORK n  aggression, 158 !HMADINEJAN -AHOUND  !KASHI9ASUHI n Akhmetov, Rinat, 138, 139 Al Qaeda, 115 !LBANIA   ALBATROSSES   Amazon (Japan), 3 American Studies Association, 108 Analects #ONFUCIUS 

AnnalesHISTORIANS  !NTInBALLISTIC-ISSILE4REATY (1972), 123 apprenticeships vs. universities, n !QUINAS 4HOMAS  Arab League, 105 !RAB3PRING  !RMITAGE 2ICHARD  Asahi Shinbun, xix, 19, 20, 21, 33, 81 !SIA 0ACIlC%CONOMIC Cooperation (APEC), xix !SO 4ARO nSee also !BE3HINZOAND!BEn!SO government. !SSAD "ASHARAL   See also Syria. Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry $)(+  Atlantic Ocean, 89 Australia, 19 @WHITESONLYPOLICY  !USTRIA   !USTROn(UNGARIAN%MPIRE  automation, 53 Ayer, A. J., xvii !ZERBAIJAN 

172

INDEX

Balls, Ed, 57 n. "ALKANS  Baltic Sea/Baltic states, 118, 120, 129 "AN+InMOON   "ANKOF!MERICA  "ANKOF%NGLAND   "ANKOF*APAN   BANKERS BANKING      "ARUCH "ERNARD  BASICINCOME n n  "ERLINBLOCKADE  "ERLIN 4REATYOF  Better Angels of our Nature: Why Violence has declined, The (Pinker), 153 Biden, Joseph, 117 "LACK3EA  "LAIR !NTHONY n "LANCHARD /LIVIER  Blank, Stephan J., 120 "LINDER !LAN  blocs and buffers, xii, 90, 123,    "OLTON *OHN  BONDS n "OSNIA   "RAITHWAITE 2ODERIC1  "RAUDEL &ERNAND  "RITAIN        alliance with Japan, 19 ANTInTAXATION  "IBLEAND3HAKESPEARE  #HANCELLOROFTHE%XCHEQUER  #HILD4AX#REDIT  civil service, 71

ECONOMICHISTORY n ECONOMICPROBLEMS  EDUCATION JOBSAND QUALIlCATIONS n Financial Services Agency, 59 &OREIGN/FlCE  )NDIA  Joint Intelligence Committee,  Labour Party, 57 male suffrage, 52 National Economic $EVELOPMENT/RGANIZATION  .IGERIA  Polish plumbers, 113, 118 POORMATHSTESTPERFORMANCES  SOCIALEXCLUSIONTASKFORCE  Royal Commission on Public Schools, 52 @SPECIALRELATIONSHIPWITH53  n   WORKINGCLASS  7ORKING4AX#REDIT  "RITISH#OMMONWEALTH  "ROOKINGS)NSTITUTE  Brussels, See European Union (Brussels) "ULGARIA    Bundesbank, 59 "USH 'EORGE7 n n Cameron, David, 1 Canada, 103 CARINGJOBS  #ARNEY -ARK  Caspian Basin/Caspian Sea, 119, 120

INDEX

Caucasian/Mongolian differences,   Caucasus, 120, 121, 125 #ENTRAL!SIA n US basis, 119 Russian sphere, 119 #%/S   #HAUPRADE !YMERIC  #HINA XIIInXIV  n   n   ETSEQ   n Academy of Science Japan 2ESEARCH#ENTRE  @BULLIESBLAMELESS*APAN  coastguard, 82 CULTURALINmUENCEON*APAN  ECONOMICPOLICY   Foreign Ministry, 88 DIASPORA  encirclement, 139 FARMERS  National Maritime Affairs Committee, 82 .AVY n State Oceanic Administration, 82 5NITED.ATIONSSEAT   #HIRAC *ACQUES  Chou En Lai, See Zhou Enlai Chuo Koron, 22 citizenship, xii, 151 CIVILSERVICEREQUIREMENTSFOR SUCCESS  #LINTON (ILLARY2ODHAM  Clinton, William J., 55, 92, 93, 112, 113 @COALITIONOFTHEWILLING  

173

#OHEN 2OGER   COLONIALRELATIONSHIPS  competitiveness, xvi, 38 #ONFUCIUS  CONSPIRACY XII XIV  Coordinated Market Economies (CME), xvi corporatism, xvi Corriere della Sera, xv Council on Foreign Relations, 119 COUNTERnTERRORISM  Courtis, Kenneth, 22 #RIMEA n  annexation, 17, 131, 135 3EBASTOPOL   Tatars, 130, 135 7ESTERNASSUMPTIONS n #UBANMISSILECRISIS  CURRENCYCONTROL n Czech Republic, 122, 129 Daily Camera  Daily Mail  DE"ENOIST !LAIN  DEmATION  Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto), xviii, 21, 72, 73 Deng Hsiao Ping, See Deng Xiaoping $ENG8IAOPING   Denmark, 122 Denny, Reuel, 11 DEVELOPMENTALSTATE n dignity, xiii $ISNEY#ORP  Ditchely Park Conference, 111 $ORE 2ONALD             n



INDEX

on Eurozone, 38 FAVOURS0UTINQV  DRUGnTRAFlCKING   $UCHENE &RAN OIS N Durkheim, Émile, 152 East Sea, 19 East China Sea dispute, See Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute %AST'ERMANY  Economia Politica, xv, 5 economic policy goals, 37 Economist, The, 55 ECONOMISTS XII XIII      %DEN !NTHONY  education and employment, n EDUCATIONALOPTIMISTS n %GYPT   %ISENHOWER $WIGHT$  Ekonomisuto (Economist), 31, 35,     England , See Britain enryo DIFlDENCE  EQUALITY    Eugenics Review  Europe, 112 European Bank, 39 %UROPEANRIGHTWINGPARTIES  FAVOUR0UTINQV  European Union (Brussels), 38,  n Copenhagen criteria, 113 EXPANSION n      mABBYFOREIGNPOLICY  'ERMANICECONOMICPOLICY 

LESSWILLINGFOLLOW.!4/  Mastricht Treaty (1992), 113 European and NATO expansion cause of Eastern and Central %UROPETENSION  Eurozone, 38, 39 EXCHANGERATES n Faber Book of Modern Verse 2OBERTS  Farnham Castle, 151 Faust (Goethe), 59 lNANCIALCENTRES  lNANCIALSERVICESINDUSTRY  Financial Times XVII      &INLAND   lSCALDElCIT XIIN      lSCALPOLICY  FOOTBALLERS  Foreign Affairs    &OREIGN0OLICY#ENTRE n &RANCE      @CLIENTRELATIONSHIPWITH53  DEVELOPMENTALSTATE  &OREIGN-INISTRY  &RANKFURT  &RANCOn'ERMAN7ARn   Friedman, Milton, 55 &RIEDMAN 4HOMAS  Fudan University, 82 &UKUDA9ASUO n &UKUZAWA9UKICHI  'ADAl -UAMMAR  Gakushin*APAN!CADEMY 

INDEX

'ALTON)NSTITUTE  GAMESTHEORY n Gates, Robert, 117 GENETICDETERMINISM XII  genocide, 155 'EORGIA  n See also !BKHAZIA !DJARA AND3OUTH Ossetia 'ERMANY XIV   n     CURRENCYCONTROL n excluded from United Nations,  HYPERnINmATION  National Socialists, 23, 83 Nuremburg trials, 83 POSTnWAROCCUPATION  Ginsberg, Morris, 152 Goethe, Johann von, 59 @'OLDEN!GEn  Google, xvi EMPLOYEES  Gorbachev, Mikhail, 112 Gray, Paul, 153 Great North East Japan tsunami   Greece, 9, 39 growth rate, 38 'ULF7AR    Gurr, Ted Robert, 155 (ALL 0ETER XVI  (ALPERIN -ORTON  (AMAS  (ARRIS $AVID  Hashimoto, Taro, 25 (AYASHI 4ATSUSABURO  Heisei Emperor, 32 @HELICOPTERMONEY 

175

Hepburn Romanization, 25 hemoclysum, 155 (ERSH 3EYMOUR   (EZBOLLAH  (IROSHIMABOMBING   History of Western Philosophy (Russell), xvii (ITLER !DOLF    (OBBES 4HOMAS  Hokkaido, 88 Holocaust, 152 (ONG+ONG  holocaust deniers, 23 Hungary, 129 HYPERINmATION   n IAEA, See International Atomic Energy Authority @)DEAOF0ROGRESS'INSBERG 152 ILO, See International Labor Organization IMF, See International Monetary Fund IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION      IMPERIALISTEXPANSION XV   In vino veritas, xi incentives, 12, 53 INCOMEDISTRIBUTION   n India, 19, 102 NUCLEARPROGRAMME  individualism, 11 INEQUALITY  n  n )NDONESIA  INFANTINDUSTRIES  INmATION XII XIII  n n n



INDEX

two percent sacrosanct rate,  Institute for Research in Humanities, 25 INTELLIGENCE  n      INTERESTRATES      n International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), 107 International Court of Justice, 73, 80, 88 International Economics !SSOCIATION  International Labor Organization (ILO), 12 )NTERNATIONAL-ONETARY&UND  INVESTMENT  n    )1AND)1TESTS   )RAN      nuclear programme, 101, 103,    )RAQAND)RAQ7AR      n  Ireland, 39 )SHIBA3HIGERU n )SHIHARA3HINTARO   n 81 )3)3)SLAMIC3TATE   See also Syria )SRAEL XIV   n    cyber war, 101 INmUENCEON53   nuclear programme, 101, 102,    Mossad assassinations, 101 7EST"ANK  )TALY XInXII  

excluded from United Nations,  GENERALSTRIKE  POSTnWAROCCUPATION  *APAN XII XIIInXIV ETSEQ      ABDUCTEESMINISTER n Abolition of Regulation #OMMITTEE  AGRICULTURALSECTOR  @!MERICANIZATION  apology for colonialism, 95 BANKS n burakumin (former outcasts), 27, 81 CIVILSERVICE n coastguard, 82 collective self defence, xviii, XIX  n  n #ONSTITUTION ETSEQ  DEVELOPMENTALSTATE  DISLIKEOF#HINESE    dislike of Koreans, 23 ECONOMY    ELECTIONS XVIInXVIII   31 excluded from United Nations,  FARMERS  foreign policy, xii, 12, 72 @HATESPEECHheetosupichi  23 +OREANLABOURERS n -INISTRYOF%DUCATION  Ministry of Finance, 13, 71 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 13, n      -INISTRYOF(OME!FFAIRS 

INDEX

Ministry of Labour, Health and Welfare, 9, 71 Ministry of Trade and Industry, 71 Ministry of Transport, 71 National Police Agency, 71 NUCLEAR  PENSIONS n POLITICALPARTIES XIIInXIV POSTnWARCONSENSUS  POSTnWAROCCUPATION  QUASInTOTALITARIAN  Relaxation of Regulations #OMMITTEE  Ryosai Kenbo Good Wife Wise Mother, 2 3ELF$EFENCE&ORCES n Supreme Court, 15 textbooks, 83 Japan Bank for International #OOPERATION*")#  Japan Restoration Party, 25 Japan Socialist Party, 91 Japan that can say ‘No’, The )SHIHARA n JBIC, See Japan Bank for International Cooperation Jietai, See*APAN3ELF$EFENCE Forces *OBS 3TEVE  *OHNSON ,YNDON n JOURNALISM  Kanjicho (LDP party secretary and CHIEFCABINETSECRETARY n +ANT %MMANUEL   categorical imperative, xi Kashmir, 102 Karimov, Islam, 120, 121

177

Kazakhstan, 118 KEDO, See Korean Peninsular Energy Development Organization Keio Plaza Hotel, Tokyo, 2 +ERRY *OHN  +EYNES *OHN-AYNARD    +EYNESIANMODEL XV  +INGS#OLLEGE#AMBRIDGE  +HODORKOVSKY -IKHAIL  Khrushchev, Nikita, 131, 135 Kidnappee Family Association, See !BDUCTEESFAMILIES Association Kidnappers Rescue Association (Sukuu kai), 91, 95 +IEVDEMONSTRATIONS  See also Ukraine. +IM*ONG)L    +ISSINGER (ENRY   ON*APAN   ONNUCLEARWEAPONS  Kitamura Naoko, 30 Kleveman, Lutz, 120 Klitschko, Vitaly, 128 +OCHELAKOTA .ARAYANA  +OGAFAMILY n  See also Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute +OIZUMI*UNICHIRO    North Korea visits and AGREEMENTS  n  +OMEITO n    +OO 2ICHARD  Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization +%$/ n +OREAN7AR 

178

INDEX

Kosovo, 118 +RUGMAN 0AUL n Kunihara family, 77, 79, 80. See also Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute +UPER 3IMON  Kurile Islands, 88 +UWABARA4AKEO    +UWAIT   +YOTO5NIVERSITY,IBRARY  Kyrgyzstan, 118, 119 Labour Party, 57 Language, Truth and Logic (Ayer), xvii Law of the Sea, 88 ,AVROV 3ERGEY6    ,EAGUEOF.ATIONS n  learning abilities, 12, 37, 51 LEARNINGOPPORTUNITIES     ,EBANON  LDP, See Liberal Democratic Party Li La, 85 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),        ANTInCOMMUNIST   95 Liberal Market Economy (LME), xvi ,IBYA  Lonely crowd: a study of the changing American character, The (Riesman et al.), 11 ,ONDON   ,ONDON#ONFERENCEn  @,ONG0EACECONCEPT n

@LONGUEDURÏELONGCYCLE CONCEPT  ,UKIN 6LADIMIR n McCain, John, 125 MAD, See mutually assured destruction -AEHARA 3EIJI  Mainichi Shinbun XIX n   n -ALAYSIA  -ANCHURIA  -ARUYAMA-ASAO n Mayo Human Relations School, N Mediawatch website, xviii Medvedev, Dimitry, 122 -EIJI%MPEROR   -EIJI2ESTORATION n -EIRSCHEIMER *OHN     @ENDOF.!4/THESIS  Mephistopheles, 59 -IDDLE%AST     n See also Egypt, )RAN )RAQ )SRAEL +UWAIT /TTOMAN%MPIRE0ALESTINE Qatar, and Saudi Arabia Minshuto, See Democratic Party of Japan missile interceptor defence system, 122, 123 mixed economy, xv -IYAMOTO9UJI  -IYAUCHI9OSHIHIKO  Mongolia, xiv, 118 -ONNET *EAN N -ONTENEGRO  -ONTREUX 4REATYOF 

INDEX

-ORITA!KIO n -UBARAK (OSNI  -UELLER *OHN  Mussolini, Benito, 157 mutually assured destruction -!$  n See also nuclear war threat Myers, Richard B., 120 .AGASAKIBOMBING   Naha, 73 Nakae Chomin, 22 .APOLEON) n Nasser, Gamal Abdul, 105 Narita Airport, 2 NATIONSTATES STRENGTHOF n  National Bureau of Asian Research, 108 NATO, See North Atlantic Treaty Organization Nature, 97 Nehru, Jawaharal, 105 NEO LIBERALISM XV    New Agenda Group, 105 New Generations Party, 25 New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia, The (Kleveman), 120 .EW9ORK  New York Times XIX   n    n   .(+ n  Nihon Keizai Shinbun n n nipponsiki Romanization, 25 .IXON 2ICHARD   Noda Yoshihiko and Noda ADMINISTRATION     

179

.ONAKA(IROMI n Nonaligned Movement, 105, 107 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 111,     EXPANSION n      .!4/n2USSIA0ERMANENT Joint Committee, 112 @3EA"REEZEEXERCISEWITH Russia, 129 summits, 113 7ARSAW0ACTFRONTIER  North Korea, xiv, 90, n ABDUCTEES XIV n Japanese aid promised, 95 nuclear and missile ambitions,       Northern Distribution Network, 120 Norway, 39 NPT, See.UCLEAR.ONn proliferation Treaty .UCLEAR.ONnPROLIFERATION 4REATY n  n @!RKOFTHE#OVENANTFOR53  #HINA  Review Conferences, 103, n  Nuclear Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative, 105 NUCLEARWARTHREAT     Nuclear Weapons Control Treaty, 107 .ULAND 6ICTORIA n  

180

INDEX

@&UCKTHE%5   .YE *OSEPH N /BAMA "ARAK    n 102, 108, 122, 150 0RAGUESPEECH   Cairo speech (2009), 107 occupational selection, 52 OILCRISIS   /KINAWA  n reversion to Japan (1972), n 53TAKEOVER  Okinawa Trough, 73 Olympic Games, 109, 133 Opanal Group, 105 OPMF, See Overt Permanent -ONETARYlNANCINGOFTHE &ISCAL$ElCIT/0-& /TTOMAN%MPIRE  Overt Permanent Monetary lNANCINGOFTHE&ISCALDElCIT XIII  n Owen, Catherine, 133 0ACIlC/CEAN   0ACIlC7AR7ORLD7AR))          Pakistan, 102, 118, 120 Palestine, Palestinians, 108 'AZA  0ALUMBOn,IU $AVID  0AMlLOVIA %LLA n 0ARIS  PERFORMANCE ETSEQ ‘Personal names and the observing individual in Utopian travel WRITING+ITAMURA 

0HILIPPINES  Philistine Student Revolution   Piketty, Thomas, xv, 8, 13, 37,   0INKER 3TEVEN n n  PISA, See Program for )NTERNATIONAL3TUDENTS Tests Player Piano (Vonnegut), 57 0OLAND      0OLEMICS  political correctness, xii POPULATION         Poroshenko, Petro, 131 Portugal, 39 POSTPONEMENTOFGRATIlCATION  @0RECARIATO n printing money a sin, 59 Program for International 3TUDENTS4ESTS0)3!  Prospect   0RUSSIA  0UTIN 6LADIMIR n   n   n  appeal to Russian nationalism, n OUTMANEUVERED/BAMAQV  Prince Charles compares to (ITLER  turns back on Europe and NATO, 139 0YATT 'EOFFREY n Pyongyang, 101 1ATAR  1UADRUPLE!LLIANCE 

INDEX

QUANTITATIVEEASING n  1UINTUPLE!LLIANCE  RACIALEQUALITY    2AKUTEN#O  2APEOF.ANKING.ANJING  2EAGAN 2ONALD XV  n n 2EICH 2OBERT  resource endowments, 39 Review of Vocational Education, n 2ICE #ONDOLEEZZA n Riesman, David, 11 Rise of the Meritocracy (Young), 57 2OBERTS -ICHAEL  Romania, 117, 118, 122, 129,   2OOSEVELT %LEANOR n 2OOSEVELT &RANKLIN$  Rouhani, Hassan, 102 2OUSSEAU *EAN*ACQUES  2USSELL "ERTRAND XVII   NUCLEARWEAPONS n  Russia (formerly USSR), xii, xiii, xv, 17, 87, 88, 102, 103, 105, n n    border dispute with China, 118 Civil Dignity, 132 ELECTIONFAILINGS  (UMAN2IGHTS/MBUDSMAN 132 new bloc, 118 0USSY2IOT  0RESIDENTS#OUNCILON#IVIL Society and Human Rights, n

181

Ryukyu and Daito Islands 2EVERSION4REATY n Ryukyu Islands, See Okinawa Sachs, Jeffrey, 113 3ADDAM(USSEIN  Saigo Takamori, 32 SAKÏ  Sakurai Yoshiko, 98 San Francisco Conference and 0EACE4REATY   n Sankei Shinbun, 19 Sansujin keirin mondo (‘Three DRUNKARDSDISCOURSEON GOVERNMENTn.AKAE  sarin gas, 17 3AUDI!RABIA    3CHELLING 4HOMAS  3CHWEITZER %RIC n Science Research Council, 151 Sekai, 22 self respect, 8 Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute, XIV  n   n 90 #HINESEAND4AIWANMAPS  #HINESECLAIM  lSHINGCLASHES n Japanese bellicosity, 72 Japanese cabinet committee, 72 NATIONALIZATIONPROPOSAL n Senkaku mole, 73 SHELVINGTHEISSUEDISPUTE  n 4OKYOINVOLVEMENT n US administration, 75 53.AVY  3ERBIA  3HAASKAVILI -IKHEIL n

182

INDEX

3HANGHAI   MATHSTEACHERSTO"RITAIN  Shanghai Cooperation /RGANIZATION n  challenges the US, 119, 121 Shanghai Five, See Shanghai Cooperation Organization Shantung Peninsula, 19 Shimonoseki Peace Treaty (1895),  shinpoteki bunkajin (progressive INTELLECTUAL  Showa Emperor, 32 shunto–soba (going wage increase),  3ILICON6ALLEYCARTEL  3IMONOVIC )VAN n 3INGAPORE  3INOn*APANESE0EACE4REATY   3IX.ATION0ARTY 4ALKS  3IXTYn&ORTY3OCIETY  SKILLnACQUIRINGMECHANISM  Slovakia, 129 Slovenia, 118, 129 SMALLNUMBERSMARKETS  SOCIALPSYCHOLOGISTS XII  Social Science Research Council, 151 sociologists, xii @SOFTPOWER N    3OKA'AKKAI n 3OSKICE $AVID XVI  3OUTH#HINA3EADISPUTE   3OUTH+OREA      83, 92, 100, 101 3OUTH/SSETIA n   

Russian peacekeepers, 125 53INVOLVEMENT n 3RI,ANKA  Spain, 39 Spencer, Herbert, 152 3TALIN *OSEF   3TANDING 'UY n Stars and Stripes, 117 START, See Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Stato e mercato, xv, xvi, 5, 37 n. STATUS XIII     Stiglitz, Joseph, 12 Stock Market Capitalism: Welfare Capitalism: Japan and Germany versus the Anglo-Saxons (Dore), xvi Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), 122 SUBSIDIES  3UEZCRISIS  Sweden, 39 3WITZERLAND  SYNCHROPAY    3YRIA       53n2USSIAPROXYWAR  4AIWAN   n n  4AJIKISTAN  4AKENAKA#ORP  4AKEUCHI9OSHIMI n TALENTS  Taliban, 115, 119 Talleyrand, Charles Maurice de,  4ANAKA(ITOSHI n !BEQV ATTACKON  4ANAKA+AKUEI n Taylor, John B., 38 n.

INDEX

Taylor rule, 38 Technical Change Centre, 151 technological change/ DEVELOPMENT      TECHNOLOGICALKNOWLEDGE  4EHERAN   4HAILAND  4HATCHER -ARGARET XV  n n Thought and behaviour in Japanese politics (Maruyama), 7 4IAOYUnTAI)SLANDS See Senkaku/ Diaoyu Islands dispute Times, The, xvii Tito (Josef Broz), 105 4OCQUEVILLE !LEXISDE XV Togo Kazuhiko, 99 4OKYOn"EIJING&ORUM n Tokyo Shinbun, 19, 20, 21, 33 4OKYO7AR#RIMESTRIALS   4OSHIBA  4RUMAN$OCTRINE  Tsurugu Straits, 88 Tsurumi Shunsuke, 22 Tsurumi Taro, 22 Turkey, 102 4URNER !IDAIR XIII  n  n Twenty/Eighty Society, 152 Turchynov, Oleksandr, 130 Tyahnybok, Oleh, 128 Tymoshenko, Yulia, 131 Ukraine, xii, xiv, 117, 119, 122,   n  n Dnipropetro, 138 Donbas Province, 131, 138, 139

183

Donetsk, 137 HUMANRIGHTSREPORT n Luhansk, 137 Mariupol, 137, 138 Odessa, 138 /RANGE2EVOLUTION  penniless and indebted, 138 2USSIANINVOLVEMENT n US and Europe more to blame,  53INVOLVEMENT n Ulan Bator, 97, 98 UNEMPLOYMENT         United Kingdom, UK, See Britain 5NITED.ATIONS    ARMY  #HARTER   n @ENEMYSTATESCLAUSE   'ENERAL!SSEMBLY  n Security Council, xiv, 102,     5NITED3TATES XV  n  n   n   n    n     n  n American Jewish Committee,  ANTInCOMMUNISM  ANTInTAXATION  Atomic Energy Commission,  Central Intelligence Agency #)!  n CURRENCYCONTROL n defence system, 117 Earned Income Tax Credits, 



INDEX

economy, 39 DECLINE  Federal Deposit Insurance #ORP  &EDERAL2ESERVE3YSTEM    )SRAELILOBBY    Joint Chiefs of Staff, 120 ,ATIN!MERICA    MILITARYSUPREMACYn   nuclear umbrella, 17, 33 0ENTAGON      117 POORMATHSTESTPERFORMANCES  racial patterns, 57 RELATIONSWITH#HINAQV        n  n RELATIONSWITH2USSIAQV   n  n Republican Party, 8 Security and Exchange #OMMISSION  Silk Road Strategic Act, 120 3TATE$EPARTMENT     4REASURY  Troubled Assets Relief 0ROGRAM  War College Strategic Studies Institute, 120 way of life, 112 Universal Declaration of Human 2IGHTS n assertion of US moral SUPERIORITY  5332OPPOSITION 

Unpopular Essays (Russell), xvii USnTHEMMENTALITY XII XIII USSR, See Russia Utsu kushii kuni e (‘A beautiful COUNTRYn!BE  Uzbekistan, 115, 118, 121 Strategic Partnerships, 121 Varieties of Capitalism: The institutional foundations of comparative advantage (Hall and Soskice), xvi Versailles, Congress and Treaty of   n 6IENNA #ONGRESSOF   Vienna Group of 10, 105, 107 6IETNAM  US deserter (Charles Jenkins),  Vladivostok, 80 Voice, 22 Vonnegut, Kurt, 57 6OLCKER 0AUL XV   n 6OLKERRULE  7ALL3TREET  Wall Street Journal    7ALLACE 7ILLIAM  7ALTZ +ENNETH   war criminals, 33, 83 @7ARON4ERROR  7ARSAW0ACT      Waseda University, 22 Washington Post n  WEALTHDISTRIBUTION n n WEAPONSTRADING n 7EIDMANN *ENS  

INDEX

WELFAREFRAUD  West, the, xiii, xiv 7ESTERNMEDIA    111 White, Mathew, 155 7IKIPEDIA      @WINNERTAKESALL   7ORLD"ANK  7ORLD#UP  world government, steps to, n World Trade Centre attack     7ORLD7AR)   World War II, See0ACIlC7AR World War II 8I*INPING XIX   9ANUKOVYCH 6ICTOR n Yasukuni Shrine, 23, 32, 33, 35, 83, 87

185

9ATSENIUK !RENIY  n 9ELTSIN "ORIS   Yokota Megumi, xiv, 95, 97, 100 ashes and DNA, 97 Yokota Sakie, xiv, 95, 97, 99, 100 Yokota Shigeru, xiv, 97, 99, 100 Yomiuri Shinbun, 18 You Tube, 150 Young, Michael, 57 Yugoslavia, 118 Zadan no Shiso (‘A study of zadan n4SURUMI  zadankai (political newspaper report), 22 :HOU%NLAI#HOU%N,AI  ON3ENKAKU)SLANDSQV  82 Zinbun Gakuho n