Africa in a Changing Global Environment: Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa [1 ed.] 9780798304047, 9780798303750

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Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved. Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Africa in a Changing Global Environment Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Shingirirai Savious Mutanga Thokozani Simelane Nedson Pophiwa (eds)

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

AFRICA IN A CHANGING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT First Published in 2013 by the Africa Institute of South Africa PO Box 630 Pretoria 0001 South Africa ISBN: 978-0-7983-0375-0 © Copyright in the chapters vests in the authors; copyright in this published work vests in the Africa Institute of South Africa 2013 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission from the copyright owner. Any unauthorised copying could lead to civil liability and/or criminal sanctions. To copy any part of this publication, you may contact DALRO for information and copyright clearance. Any unauthorised copying could lead to civil liability and/or criminal sanctions.

Telephone: 086 12 DALRO (from within South Africa); +27 (0)11 712-8000 Telefax: +27 (0)11 403-9094 Postal Address: P O Box 31627, Braamfontein, 2017, South Africa www.dalro.co.za

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at in this book are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Africa Institute of South Africa. The chapters in this book were each reviewed by at least two peers. Project manager: Pamela Morwane Copy-editor: Julliet Gillies Proofreader: Elsa Semmerlink Layout, typesetting and cover design: Pamset Printed by: Harry’s Printers The Africa Institute of South Africa is a think tank and research oganization, focusing on political, socioeconomic, international and development issues in contemporary Africa. The Institute conducts research, publishes books, monographs, occasional papers, policy briefs and a quarterly journal – Africa Insight. The Institute holds regular seminars on issues of topical interest. It is also home to one of the best library and documentation centres worldwide, with materials on every African country. For more information, contact the Africa Institute at PO Box 630, Pretoria 0001, South Africa; Email [email protected]; or visit our website at http://www.ai.org.za

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Table of Contents Foreword Acknowledgements

vi viii

About the editors

x

About the contributors

xi

Abbreviations and acronyms

xii

CHAPTER 1

Introduction

1

Shingirirai Savious Mutanga and Nedson Pophiwa Global change within the context of climate

2

Climate change in Africa: critical issues

4

Outline of this book

5

Notes and References

9

PART 1: EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE CONTINENT

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

CHAPTER 2

Climate change and water degradation: Challenges for sustaining human security in the Lake Chad Basin

13

Nicasius Achu Check Introduction

13

Climate change and water degradation in Lake Chad

15

Causes of decreased water flow into Lake Chad

17

Decreased water flow into Lake Chad: impact on human security

19

Conclusion

28

Notes and References

30

CHAPTER 3

Rainfall variability and crop production: The maze climate change brought to rain-fed agriculture Edmore Kori Introduction

33 33

Nzhelele Valley case study

36

Rainfall variability

38

Rainfall variability and maize production

40

Fondwe rainfall variation and maize production

41

Mandala rainfall variation and maize production

41

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Tshavhalovhedzi – Mphaila rainfall variation and production

42

Rabali rainfall variation and production

43

Tshiswenda rainfall variation and production

44

Tshituni rainfall variation and maize production

44

Conclusion

45

Notes and references

45

CHAPTER 4

Maize Innovation for Climate Change Adaptation: Evidence from Rural Nigeria

49

Justice Akpene Tambo Introduction

49

DTM innovation in Nigeria

50

Case study of Borno State: north-east Nigeria

52

Analytical approaches applied in the case study

54

Descriptive analysis based on a survey in Borno State

55

Adopters’ perception of the benefits of DTM

58

Constraints to adoption of DTM

62

Conclusion

64

Acknowledgement

65

Notes and References

65

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

CHAPTER 5

Application of traditional knowledge in predicting and adapting to climate: Indicators of change and coping strategies for rural communities in the central rift valley of Ethiopia

68

Yoseph Melka, Habtemariam Kassa and Ute Schmiedel Introduction

68

Access to climate information: traditional knowledge and indicators

70

Brief description of the study area

71

Indicators of change and coping strategies

72

Challenges in the use of traditional indicators

75

Social learning, information network and adaptation to climate change

76

Traditional coping mechanisms

78

Conclusion

80

Acknowledgments

81

Notes and References

81

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Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

84

Tendayi Gondo Introduction

84

Innovative urban planning approaches to climate change

85

Building resilience and adaptive capacity through sound land use planning: the challenge 86 The institutional environment for climate change and urban planning in Ethiopia

88

Ethiopia’s Delphi case study

89

Climate change adaptation preparedness of Ethiopian cities

91

Critical analysis of Ethiopian cities’ response to climate change

96

Conclusion

97

Acknowledgements

98

Notes and References

98

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 6

Climate change adaptation through sound land use planning: While the world ticks, Ethiopia lags

PART II: GREEN AND LOW CARBON ECONOMY OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA

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CHAPTER 7

Embracing the green economy: Concepts and concerns

103

Martin Kaggwa and Muchaiteyi Togo Introduction

103

Defining the green economy

104

Interpretations of the green economy

105

Green economy in the context of sustainable development

108

The green economy in the context of developing countries

110

Major drivers of a green economy

111

Benefits of the green economy

115

Policy concerns for developing countries

118

Conclusion

121

References

122

CHAPTER 8

The implications of a transition to a green economy in the African context

125

Muchaiteyi Togo and Martin Kaggwa Introduction

125

Sustainable development realities in Africa

126

The contested aims of the green economy

129

The green economy and job creation

130

Green economy and international trade

132

The green economy and poverty alleviation

133

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Examples of green economic activities

135

Implications of a transition to a green economy in Africa

138

Cross-sector collaboration and deliberation

142

Understanding the role of subsidies in Africa versus the use of market instruments

143

Conclusion

143

References

144

CHAPTER 9

Exploring the challenges and opportunities for low carbon climate resilient development in Africa

148

Shakespear Mudombi Introduction

148

Challenges for low carbon development in Africa

149

Opportunities for low carbon development in Africa

156

The link between LCD and sustainable development

158

Conclusion

159

Notes and References

160

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CHAPTER 10

Cities as green economy drivers: Making a case for green cities in South Africa

163

Shingirirai Savious Mutanga, Nedson Pophiwa and Thokozani Simelane Introduction

163

The Problem of the South African City

164

Cities as Green Economy Drivers

165

Green Economy Policies and Implications for South African Cities

167

Strategic Sectors for Greening South African Cities

169

Challenges to the Green Cities Agenda

173

Conclusion

174

Notes and References

174

PART III: RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS TO AFRICA’S ENERGY CHALLENGES CHAPTER 11

The development and diffusion of biofuels as an adaptation strategy in Zimbabwe Chipo Nyamwena Introduction

179 179

Historical overview of biofuels in Zimbabwe

181

Jatropha in Zimbabwe

184

Value chain stakeholders and their role in the development and diffusion of biofuels

186

Technical side of biofuels

187

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Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

189

Actors in knowledge creation

190

Government ministries as players in the diffusion process

191

Biofuel investment in Zimbabwe

191

Conclusion

192

Notes and References

193

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Role of institutions in the diffusion and development of biofuels

CHAPTER 12

Defining parameters for sustainable hydropower generation in light of climate change: A case study of Zambia’s Kafue Flats 196 Shingirirai Savious Mutanga and Nomasonto Magano Introduction

196

Hydropower as an alternative energy system

197

Systems thinking: systems dynamics

203

Systems dynamics in the context of hydropower generation

204

Kafue Case Study

208

Parameters for hydropower generation

209

Conclusion

211

References

212

CHAPTER 13

Conclusion

216

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Shingirirai Savious Mutanga, Nedson Pophiwa and Thokozani Simelane

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

v

Foreword In the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008, development actors (particularly in the global north) have spearheaded a policy shift towards eradicating a business-as-usual-approach to economic growth. The relationship between the economy and the environment has gradually moved from being a relationship of growth based on unsustainable extraction of resources to a relationship in which economic growth is matched with carbon emission reduction and the promotion of biodiversity and the environment at large. More radical reform suggestions call for the decoupling of economies from natural resource exploitation, so as to spare future generations. While the quest for a global climate governance system continues to meet limitations, it is becoming clearer that, globally, the effects of environmental change are devastating to all nations, regardless of whether they emit greenhouse gasses (GHG) or not. This is the state of quandary in which African countries find themselves being the lowest emitters with the highest risk of bearing the brunt of climate change. The critical question is not one that asks what the countries of the north (who are among the leading emitters of GHG) can do to alleviate the detrimental effects of global change on Africa, but how African countries are initiating their own solutions. This book, Africa in a Changing Global Environment, is timely, for it seeks to demonstrate African responses to the scourge of global change in various areas of vulnerability. It is an outcome of a symposium on Transdisciplinary Studies on Climate Change and Green Economy in Africa held during COP 17 in Durban. At the symposium, an opportunity for debating and assessing Africa’s development (with a particular focus on the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

transition to renewable energy sources and barriers to climate change) was afforded those in attendance. The symposium brought together emerging scholars and provided a platform to share ideas and perspectives on climate change issues. As such, the Africa Institute of South Africa saw it fit to publish all papers deemed of high quality and papers that made a strong contribution to our understanding of global environmental change. The chapters contained in the book touch on a wide range of thematic issues, including: indigenous knowledge systems, severe drought conditions, rain-fed agriculture, green and low carbon economy, as well as renewable energy. These thematic aspects make it easier for the reader to understand the magnitude and complexity of global change, especially as it relates to the localised conditions of marginalized and low-income Africans. In terms of spatial reach, the studies were located in all regions of Africa, vi

save for the North, where none of the chapter contributors had conducted

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

similarities in anxieties and challenges faced by Africans in all regions of the continent. My sincere gratitude goes to the sponsors of the symposium, who, in

FOREWORD

research. Nonetheless, in the post-Arab Spring era, it is clear that there are

a very important way, kick-started a process that has seen the birth of this post-symposium book. Among them are the European Commission’s Erasmus Mundus Alumni–African Chapter, which brought in their alumni of African origin from across Europe to contribute to the symposium and the book. Other important sponsors include the Department of Science and Technology, which is also our mother body. Through its internal resources AISA also contributed to the success of the event. I would like to thank the chapter contributors who managed to submit their manuscripts to the editors on time in order to hasten the publishing process. With my academic training in the field of agriculture, I can attest to the importance of championing mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Agricultural activities are being slowed down and the future of Africa’s family farmers hangs in the balance if no research is conducted to investigate coping strategies for resource-poor communities. I believe this book provides a platform for further scholarly engagement on these matters and that even policy makers will engage in it. Professor Phindile Lukhele-Olorunju

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Interim CEO, Council Ex-Officio Member for AISA

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

vii

Acknowledgements

The Project Leader and editors of the book “Africa in a Global Changing Environment” Perspectives of climate change Adaptation and Mitigation in Africa”, wishes to thank the following organizations and people for their generosity support in cash and kind. The Erasmus Mundus, of the European Commission (EMA), Department of Science and Technology (DST) and Africa Institute of South Africa (AISA). The three have jointly hosted a successful COP 17 Emerging Scholars Symposium which has yielded into case studies used in this book. Special mention goes to Ms M Mabusela (Director, Multi-lateral Cooperation (DST), Ricardo Chavez (EMA Regional Chapter Coordinator), and Dr. Matlotleng Matlou former CEO of AISA for embracing and endorsing the initiative. AISA is further acknowledged for its financial support in ensuring the publication of this book. The acting CEO of AISA Prof Phindile Lukhele-Olorunju is recognized for her scholarly and visionary support for this project, her response in endorsing the book project and volunteering to write the foreword cannot go without mention. A very special and sincere gratitude goes towards the authors and blind peer reviewers. Without your commitment the fruition of this book project would not have been realised. To the African Erasmus Mundus students and alumni in particular the African Chapter President Apiyo and team many thanks for the moral support and mobilizing EMA alumni to contribute to this noble cause. Many thanks to the Director of Publications Mr. Solani Ngobeni, Pamela Morwane and other publications team members, your prompt support and meticulous guidance in ensuring that the whole publication process is done Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

to completion within a short space of time cannot go unnoticed.

About AISA: The Africa Institute of South Africa (AISA) is a Science Council, which conducts socio-economic and political research in Africa. AISA’s 2011-2015 Research Agenda is “Seeking African solutions for African challenges and sustainable development through the lens of government and DST priorities”. The institute is currently ranked 7th think-tank in Sub Saharan Africa in the 2010 GLOBAL “GO-TO THINK TANKS” rankings of the Leading Public Policy Research Organisations in the World.

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Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

About Erasmus Mundus: The Erasmus Mundus Scholarship programme is an Action Scheme for the Mobility of University Students. Its aim is to enhance quality in higher education through scholarships and academic co-operation between Europe and the rest of the world. Erasmus Mundus offers:* Scholarships to students and researchers of exceptional quality to follow an Erasmus Mundus Masters Course or Joint Doctorate at two or more European universities, with nearly 150 masters and doctoral courses to choose from with Scholarships to promote the exchange of students between European and non-European Universities. The scheme has an alumni Association with about 12 regional chapters among which is the Africa Chapter whose students and alumni have been actively involved in this book project. The vision of the chapter is to create a stronger and larger network of Erasmus Mundus scholars and alumni of whom, with their knowledge, skills, experience and passion can positively transform the African continent in their fields of endeavor. It is also the mission of the Chapter to promote Erasmus Mundus as a programme of excellence in Africa via the organization of promotional and networking events as well as pre-departure programmes for prospective students from Africa. Shingirirai Savious Mutanga (Editor) Research Specialist: Science and Technology Programme

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Africa Institute of South Africa

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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About the editors

■

Nedson Pophiwa

Nedson Pophiwa is a Chief Researcher in the Democracy Governance and Service Delivery (DGSD) Programme at the Human Science Research Council (HSRC). He holds an MA in Forced Migration from the University of the Witwatersrand, and an MA in African Economic History from the University of Zimbabwe. The work that he is presenting on, regarding organic agriculture value chains in Kenya, forms part of his research interests in pro-poor and sustainable forms of agriculture in Africa. ■

Shingirirai Savious Mutanga

Shingirirai Savious Mutanga is a Research Specialist in the Science and Technology Programme of the Africa Institute of South Africa. He holds an MSc in Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation for Environmental Modelling and Management from a consortium of four universities, namely Southampton (UK), Lund (Sweden), Warsaw (Poland) and ITC (Netherlands) (under the auspice of the prestigious Erasmus Mundus Scholarship). His undergraduate degree is a BSc Honours in Geography and Environmental Science from Midlands State University in Zimbabwe. His research interests are modelling global environmental issues, with a special focus on: ecosystems transformation; complex social-ecological systems; and applied GIS, remote sensing and systems dynamics. ■

Thokozani Simelane

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Thokozani Simelane is the acting Director for Research and Head of the Science and Technology Programme at the Africa Institute of South Africa. He holds a PhD in Biodiversity Management. He is a member of the Standing Advisory Committee on Intellectual Property Rights and a Technical Assessor for the South African National Accreditation System

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Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

About the contributors

■

Chipo Nyamwena, Researcher: Institute of Economics and Innovation, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa.

■

Edmore Kori, Lecturer: Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences, University of Venda, Thohoyandou, South Africa.

■

Habtemariam Kassa (PhD), Scientist, Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

■

Justice Akpene Tambo, PhD Candidate, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.

■

Martin Kaggwa (PhD), Senior Lecturer, Tshwane University of Technology. Pretoria, South Africa.

■

Muchaiteyi Togo (PhD), Senior Researcher, South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA), Pretoria, South Africa.

■

Nicasius Achu Check, Research Specialist: Peace and Security Programme: Africa Institute of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa. PhD candidate, Department of Politics, University of Johannesburg.

■

Nomasonto Magano, Research Intern, Science and Technology

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Programme, Africa Institute of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa. ■

Shakespear Mudombi, Institute for Economic Research on Innovation, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa.

■

Tendayi Gondo, Lecturer: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Venda, Thohoyandou, South Africa.

■

Ute Schmiedel, Post-doctoral Research, Biocentre Klein Flottbek and Botanical Garden, University of Hamburg, Germany.

■

Yoseph Melka, Lecturer, Hawassa University, Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Ethiopia

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Abbreviations and Acronyms

xii

AEZ

Agro-ecological zone

ARD

Agriculture and rural development

ASDEP

Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty

AU

African Union

AU

African Unity

BRT

Bus rapid transit systems

CAR

Central Africa Republic

CBOs

Community based organizations

CDM

Clean development mechanism

CGIAR

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

CIDA

Canadian International Development Agency

CIMMYT

Centers: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

C02

Carbon dioxide

COP

Conference of Parties

DEA

Department of Environmental Affairs

DHK

Daka Harengama Kebele

DTM

Drought tolerant maize

DTMA

Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa

ECSU

Ethiopian Civil Service University

EEA

European Environmental Agency

EF

Environmental flows

EIA

Environmental impact assessments

EPA

Environmental Protection Agency

EPWP

Expanded Works Programme

ESC

Economic and Social Council

EUDP

Ethiopian Urban Development Policy

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization

FTLP

Fast track land reform

GC

Global change

GDP

Gross Domestic Production

GE

Green economy

GEC

Global Environmental Change

GES

Green Economy Summit

GHG

Green house gases

IITA

International Institute of Tropical Agriculture

IPAP2

Industrial Policy and Action Plan

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KRIP

Kano River Irrigation Project

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Lake Chad Basin Commission

LDCs

Least developed countries

LCD

Low carbon development

LED

Local economic development

LGAs

Local Government Areas

MAID

Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Mechanisation Development

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

NAPA

National Adaptation Programme of Action

NDPU

National Disaster Planning Unit

NGP

New Growth Path

NGS

Northern Guinea savanna

NIS

National innovation system

NOCZIM

National Oil Company of Zimbabwe

NUPI

National Urban Planning Institute

OAU

Organization of African Unity

PCI

Precipitation Concentration Index

PRA

Participatory Rural Appraisal

RCECS

River current energy conversion systems

REDD

Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation

SACN

South African Cities Network

SADC

South African domestic crop

SALGA

South African Local Government Association

SAZ

Standards Association of Zimbabwe

SEED

Supporting Entrepreneurs for Sustainable Development

SHP

Small hydropower system

SS

Sudan Savanna

SSA

Sub-Saharan Africa

SWH

Solar water heating

TIS

Technological innovation systems framework

UMMP

Urban Management Masters Programme

UNCSD

United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development

UNEP

United Nations Environmental Programme

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNU-INRA

United Nations University Institute for Natural Resources in

WC/WDM

Water demand management

WFP

World Food Programme

WSSD

World Summit on Sustainable Development

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

LCBC

Africa

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved. Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Shingirirai Savious Mutanga and Nedson Pophiwa

CHAPTER 1

Introduction

T

his book is concerned with Africa’s disadvantaged position at the receiving end of the devastating effects of global environmental change. Its analysis borders on how African communities are experiencing

climate change – an aspect of the global changing environment – and how they are adapting to these dire conditions. It also presents cases for mitigation and adaptation that African countries can turn to as ways of playing their part in reducing and coping with global change. Most of the chapters contained in the book dwell on the human dimension of global environmental change. Stemming from proceedings of an emerging scholars’ symposium, held during the 17th Conference of Parties (COP17) by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Durban in 2011, the book comprises chapters written by scholars from multi-disciplinary backgrounds that look at the impact of climate change on African communities.1 Throughout history, global change has never before become this topical, possibly because, unlike before, it is occurring at an ever increasing Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

rate. Although the human activities of Africans are least responsible for causing this change, it is nowhere felt more than in the delicate environmental systems of both the oceanic and terrestrial regions of the continent. Africa is faced with a myriad of socio-economic, political and environmental challenges that at times appear to be overwhelming. Unsurprisingly, the global changes of greatest interest today, like ozone depletion, climate change and the loss of biodiversity, are largely anthropogenic in origin. In addition, the scientific evidence for global environmental change in Africa presents a prima facia case for possible increased human migration and displacement2. Before focusing on the effect of global change on Africa, it is imperative to explain how scholars have explained this phenomenon, especially within the frame of climate change, which is the major focus of this book.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

1

CHAPTER 1

GLOBAL CHANGE WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE In order to understand global change, the earth can be conceived as a complex system comprising a number of differentiable but interacting spheres or subsystems. Some of these, including the atmosphere, the biosphere, the geosphere, and the hydrosphere, can be thought of as environmental systems3, which interact with the noosphere or the anthroposphere (often referred to as human systems)4. The latter are subdivided into economic, political, cultural, and socio-technical systems. Approached in this way, the study of global change revolves around efforts at understanding how environmental systems and human systems (at the global level) affect or are affected by changes in any one of these spheres or subsystems. There is generally a lack of consensus in the scientific community concerning both a comprehensive definition and the conceptual scope of global change. The Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECFS) Project defines GEC as “a change in the physical and biogeochemical environment, either caused naturally or influenced by human activities such as deforestation, fossil fuel consumption, urbanisation, land reclamation, agricultural intensification, freshwater extraction, fisheries over-exploitation and waste production”5. The definition then indicates that these changes can either: manifest at the global scale, as in the case of increasing atmospheric CO2 or occur on a local scale, but be so widespread as to be a global phenomenon – as seen in soil degradation6. GEC includes, for example, changes in: land cover and soils; atmospheric composition; climate variability and means; water availability and quality; nitrogen availability and cycling; biodiversity; sea currents and salinity; and sea level rise.7 The mid-nineteenth century has seen a broad range of literature about the human impacts on the natural landscape published. Classic examples

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

are Man and Nature, The Earth as Modified by Human Action and Man’s Role in Changing the Face of the Earth by George Perkins Marsh, published during the 60s. More recently there has been a returned emphasis on the concept of global environmental change. Initially this was focused almost solely on ‘alterations in the natural (e.g. physical or biological) systems whose impacts are not and cannot be localised’8, however there has been more recognition of the human dimensions and the essential role that this plays in resolving global environmental problems. Essentially there is an increasing realisation that human activities combine with natural events to produce global changes. The processes of global change tend to be highly non-linear and are characterised by human responses that can have a positive or negative feedback9. Global environmental change can be described as alterations in natural systems (e.g. 2

physical or biological), which impacts are not and cannot be localised10.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

systemic and cumulative changes. Global systemic changes need not be caused by global scale activity; only the physical impact is experienced at the global scale11. A typical example is a shift in the mix of gases in the stratosphere or in levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in

INTRODUCTION

Turner et al have grouped global change into two categories namely:

the atmosphere. In nature, the change initiated by actions anywhere on earth can directly affect events anywhere else on earth, e.g. climate change. Global cumulative, are changes that emanate from an accretion of localised changes in natural systems, such as loss of biological diversity through habitat destruction and changes in the boundaries of ecosystems resulting from deforestation, desertification or soil drying, and shifting patterns of human settlement12. In other words, small effects accumulate and exceed some spatial or temporal threshold, thus produce a global problem. This is what has been called “the tragedy of small increments”13. For one thing, human responses to global change are likely to feed back into the processes at work to amplify, dampen, or redirect the changes in question, e.g. climate change, ozone depletion or biodiversity loss. The table below illustrates this understanding of GEC.

Table 1: Types of global environmental change

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Type

Characteristic

Examples

Systemic

Direct impact on globally functioning system

(a) Industrial and land use emissions of ‘greenhouse’ gases (b) Industrial and consumer emissions of ozone-depleting gases (c) Land cover changes in albdeo

Cumulative

Impact through worldwide distribution of change

(a) Groundwater pollution and depletion (b) |Species depletion/genetic alteration (biodiversity)

Impact through magnitude of change (share of global resource)

(a) Deforestation (b) Industrial toxic pollutants (c) Soil depletion on prime agricultural lands Source: Turner et al (1990)

Global climate change is undoubtedly: more complex than ozone depletion, more difficult to project, and more important in terms of its potential impacts on human welfare. Key to this book is an understanding of the feedback mechanisms between human subsystems and environmental systems that either amplify or dampen initial impacts of climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. The book is premised on a Sub-Saharan Africa context, given that although the region is least responsible for climate change, it is particularly vulnerable to the effects, including reduced agricultural production, worsening food security, increased incidence of both flooding

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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CHAPTER 1

and droughts, spreading disease and increased risk of conflict over scarce land and water resources.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA: CRITICAL ISSUES Climate change remains a critical discussion point for researchers and policy and decision makers on the continent. In order for readers to understand this intractable element, it is important to unpack the seemingly synonymous terms such as climate, climate variability and climate change. Climate change has been defined as the permanent deviation in weather conditions of a given area over an extended period due to both natural variability and anthropogenic processes14,15. The IPCC definition is restricted to human induced climate change. Apparently, natural and human processes are constantly altering extremes of temperatures, rainfall, and air movement, which occur as natural processes. The discourse on climate change has been dominated by science for a number of decades, in particular the last quarter of the twentieth century attesting to whether it’s a reality or myth. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fourth assessment report declared that the scientific basis for global warming as a result of climate change is irrefutable16. A global consensus has emerged that unsustainable human consumption patterns, driven by the desire to industrialise, is the main cause of increasing levels of GHGs (dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and methane) in the atmosphere. Climate science therefore forms the basis of global climate negotiations, which are informed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. Africa has hitherto made little contribution to greenhouse gases in the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

atmosphere17. Data on per capita emission of carbon dioxide, excluding land use change, indicate that in most African countries emissions are less than 0.5 tonnes per capita. Surprisingly, Sub-Saharan Africa, with only 11% of the world’s population, accounts just for 3.6% of world emissions of carbon dioxide (reflecting low levels of income and of energy consumption)18. The UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol provided a basis for negotiation and response to the scourge of climate change in terms of mitigation and adaptation. Global leaders and key stakeholders have, for instance, agreed on keeping global temperature rise to no more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels. (Mitigation measures are countries’ efforts to reduce GHG emissions.) These should be complemented with adaption measures that emphasises the countries’ response to the scourge of climate change. The UNFCCC provides for an equitable share of responsibility in address4

ing the negative impacts of climate change. These impacts are distinctive

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Subsequently this affects crop yields20 in a region heavily dependent on agriculture with limited capacity to adapt. Future projections suggest that Africa will continue to be the most affected by climate change impacts21. Therefore developed nations are obliged to do more in response to climate

INTRODUCTION

in Sub-Saharan Africa, characterised by frequent droughts and floods19.

change impacts, given that they have capacity and that they are responsible for the impacts. This background provides a point of departure for this book, which not only demonstrates the impacts of climate change in SubSaharan Africa but also reveals how nations are responding to the global change ushered in by climate change.

OUTLINE OF THIS BOOK This edited volume comprises chapters from multi-disciplinary dimensions that look at the impact of climate change on Africa and how affected communities are adapting and mitigating the scourge. It encapsulates different models for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Most of the case studies in this book are inclined towards adaptation, given the argument that Sub-Saharan Africa is not responsible for the cumulative impacts envisaged in the region but needs to adapt to the impacts already being experienced. The first section of the book highlights evidence of climate change and its effects on the continent. Evidence of climate change impacts have been well documented by several scholars, including floods and droughts. This section is supported by two case studies that illuminate challenges to fragile ecosystems, and risks to agriculture, which threatens food security. The challenges posed by climate change to the world’s fragile ecosystem are enormous. The first case study appraises the impact of climate change on Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

the human security paradigm in the fragile Conventional Lake Chad Basin. Climate change, the case study contends, is the principal cause of degrading trends witnessed in both the quantity and quality of water that flows into Lake Chad. The consequences of these degrading trends are the loss of livelihoods of over 20 million people who depend on the resources of the lake for survival. The study thus concludes that climate change has impinged on the notion of human security in the conventional Lake Chad Basin – a human dimension which is often overlooked in favour of environmental or physical concerns. The second case study underscores that climate change poses serious risks to rain-fed crop production in the semi-dry agro-ecological zones of South Africa. Rainfall variability has significantly impacted on the rural poor, who rely on natural rainfall for crop production. The impacts vary from droughts to floods. Marginal rain-fed agricultural areas with low and

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erratic precipitation are the most vulnerable and worst affected. These result in low and unpredictable levels of crop production. Analysis of rainfall trends from 2000 to 2009 was based on data obtained from three weather stations servicing six subsistence farming communities along the Nzhelele River valley in Limpopo Province of South Africa. Results indicate a positive correlation between crop production and rainfall variability. This has proved to be a big challenge for most farmers, who are finding it difficult to predict and plan ahead despite advanced meteorological weather prediction technology. The second section focuses on African examples of “self-reliance” in adapting to climate change. This section provides some case studies on climate change adaptation. Essentially it provides a reflection on: the extent to which climate change adaptation technologies are infiltrating into smallholder farming; the role of indigenous knowledge in coping with climate change and variability. It also contains a chapter looking at sound land use planning as a means to improve its resilience and adaptation capacity to climate change. The first case study of this section looks at maize as an important staple crop in Africa, which is severely affected by frequent droughts leading to crop failure. Drought tolerant maize (DTM) has been recognised as one of the most important innovations necessary for maize farmers to be able to adapt to climate change hence its promotion in the region. The chapter examines the determinants of adoption of DTM innovation by smallholder farmers in rural Nigeria. The findings show that climate change awareness and farmers’ perceptions about DTM are the major factors that influence adoption of the innovation. The main constraints to adoption include lack of awareness, fertilizer accessibility problems and lack of access to seed. The chapter concludes that DTM innovation is important for maize farmers to continue to

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

produce in a changing climate, but more support is needed if the innovation is to be adopted by many farmers. Next is a chapter that explores the state of spatial planning approaches in Ethiopia, which are aimed at boosting resilience and adaptation capacities of cities. It evaluates the extent to which city planning authorities have adopted sound land-use planning practices to deal with actual and potential climate change related challenges. Key to the findings of the study was that a significant number of municipal authorities are climate changeconscious, although many more seemingly adopt an ad hoc or haphazard land use planning approach to the challenge. For example, less than 5 per cent were found to have a credible land-use planning system. The analysis also reveals that city authorities characterised by a much larger financial resource base, an active local constituent and a much higher political status 6

are more likely to adopt sound spatial planning measures to deal with

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

be given priority by any urban local authority that seeks to improve its resilience and adaptation capacity to climate change. The third chapter in this section is a case study of indigenous knowledge in Ethiopia. The case study demonstrates that although poorly documented

INTRODUCTION

climate change related risks. It is therefore recommended that such factors

and not well acknowledged by many agricultural and natural resources management experts, rural communities have intimate knowledge of their environment. In many rural communities, traditional knowledge is used to identify indicators of change in weather and rainfall patterns and then to make local level decisions. Such local knowledge has hardly been documented in many parts of Ethiopia. The most common mechanisms through which local communities exchange agro-meteorological information are social networks and information is primarily passed to relatives and those linked through marriage. It also highlights the various traditional coping mechanisms to overcome severe impacts of climate variability and change. Though these mechanisms vary, based on agro-ecological and socio-economic settings, the frequently cited ones include crop diversification, area closure, irrigation, water harvesting, temporary migration, and reducing the number of livestock per household. The third section focuses on green economy as a new policy direction ‘wave’ sweeping across both developed and developing countries, which is part of the global effort to mitigate against adverse effects of climate change. The section provides readers with key concepts and concerns about the green economy, which emanated from and directly respond to two critical global challenges, i.e. economic and environmental (ecological) challenges. Experts have raised concerns regarding its implications for poor economies and the rights of local people to natural resources. The chapter titled Embracing the Green Economy argues that, in implementing a green Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

economy, African nations have to take precautions not to marginalise their people, whose survival depends on direct utilisation of natural resources. It also argues for situating and interpreting the concept within a holistic thinking approach, by making sure that the goal of improving the social well-being of the people is equally central to green economy initiatives, along with ecological and economic objectives. The next chapter argues that low carbon development (LCD) is important in mitigating climate change. It explores the positive traits of low carbon development (LCD) as an alternative to the business-as-usual-approach of development, which overshadows environmental and social concerns. However, there are challenges that might hinder the success of LCD. A recommendation is made that LCD should look beyond just reducing carbon emissions. It should also: increase employment; ensure food security; reduce poverty and vulnerability; and ensure sustainable use of resources.

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Most importantly, the chapter underscores the need for LCD to combine key elements of mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development for it to be relevant in the African context. The section concludes with a South African case study on green cities. This chapter appraises green city initiatives already taking place in South Africa and goes further to make a case for the intensification of greening the country’s urban landscape. Based on findings and recommendations of various global and national policy studies, the case study demonstrates that urbanisation brings both challenges and opportunities for green cities. Challenges include the rapid pace of urbanisation and related pressure on the environment and social relations manifesting in protests. Opportunities for green cities will be realised through the ability to manage physical structure in environmentally advantageous ways, among other positive attributes of greening urban systems. In this way, cities will contribute immensely to the realisation of national job creation targets. The book acknowledges that energy use is an integral part of any production process; hence the promotion of renewable energy use is key in embracing a green economy. The fourth section presents chapters that appraise the significance of renewable energy transition in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The first case study focuses on biofuels diffusion in Zimbabwe. The government of Zimbabwe enacted policies to support the production and distribution of biofuels and a ministerial taskforce, national programmes and institutions have been established with a mandate to plan and implement biofuels in the country. However, the benefits and full potential are far from being realised. The case study makes use of the technological innovation systems framework (TIS), which draws on a system functions approach to analyse the develop-

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ment and diffusion of biofuels in Zimbabwe. The chapter concludes that development of biofuels has been sporadic, with no continuity and stability in government regulations. The last case study focuses on hydropower as an alternative or potential energy source in a climate constrained world. This chapter provides an understanding of the complexities around hydropower generation in a climate constrained world, compounded with huge competing priorities for water. The chapter acknowledges that a forward-looking energy strategy calls for a holistic approach to climate-related initiatives. Apart from climate change concerns, hydropower encompasses a heterogeneous set of socio-technical systems. The chapter thus adopts complexity science in the form of systems dynamics to aid in characterizing the complexities associated with hydropower generation. 8

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

1

This symposium was held as a side event to the climate change negotiations of COP 17. African scholars based overseas and in African institutions were present at this symposium, hosted by the Africa Institute of South Africa in conjunction with its partners (such as the Erasmus Mundus Alumni Association’s African Chapter, and the Department of Science and Technology).

2

Parnell, S. and Walawege, R. 2011. Sub-Saharan African urbanisation and global environmental change, Global Environmental Change, Volume 21, Supplement 1, S12–S20.

3

Stern, P.C., Young, O.R. and Druckman, D. 1992. Global Environmental Change: Understanding the Human Dimensions. National Academy Press. Washington, D.C. USA.

4

Ibid

5

INTRODUCTION

NOTES AND REFERENCES

The definition is available online at http://www.gecafs.org/glossary/index.html Accessed 1 October 2012.

6

Ibid

7

Ibid

8

Stern, P.C., et al. 1992. p25.

9

Stern, P.C. and E. Aronson, eds. 1984. Energy Use: The Human Dimension. Report of the National Research Council Committee on the Behavioural and Social Aspects of Energy Consumption and Production. New York: Freeman.

10 Ibid 11 Turner, B.L. II et al. 1990. Two Types of Global Environmental Change, Environment, (1), pp 14–22. 12 Stern, P.C., et al. 1992. 13 Lewis, J.E, and Wood, E.C. 1996. A physical scientist’s perspective of the human dimension of global change. Unity and Diversity in Arctic Societies. International Arctic Social Sciences Association. Rovaniemi, Finland. 14 Challinor, A.J. 2009. Crops and Climate Change: Progress, Trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptations. Journal of Experimental Botany. 60 (10),

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

2775–2789. 15 Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAP). 2007. Adaptation to climate change in forestry and fisheries perspectives. Framework and Priorities: Rome FAO. 16 Nhamo, G. 2011. Green Economy and Climate Mitigation: Topics of Relevance to Africa. Pretoria, Africa Institute of South Africa. 17 Yanda, P.Z. and C.P. Mubaya. 2011. Managing a changing climate in Africa: local vulnerabilities and adaptation experiences. Dar Es Salam, Mkuki na Nyota Publishers. 18 Collier P., et al. 2008. Climate Change and Africa. Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 24 (2), 237–353. London University Oxford Press. 19 Ibid 20 Furtado, J.L. et al. 2006 Agricultural Systems: Sensitivity to Climate Change “CAB reviews”: perspectives in agriculture, veterinary science, nutrition and natural resources; 1(52). 21 Collier P., et al. 2008.

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9

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved. Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved. Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

PART I

Evidence of climate change and its effects on the continent

11

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved. Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Challenges for sustaining human security in the Lake Chad Basin Nicasius Achu Check

CHAPTER 2

Climate change and water degradation

INTRODUCTION

T

he relationship between humankind and the environment over the years has resulted in fundamental physical and structural modification of the earth’s ecology. The exponential growth in the world’s population

in the last millennia, and the resultant pressure it exerted and continues to exert on the world’s natural resources, are disturbing the climate system on a global scale. Shifting modes of occupation on the African continent during the second part of the last decade and the dawn of large scale industrializa-

tion in the West have led to an increased demand for Africa’s raw materials. To satisfy the demand for raw materials, several African governments have engaged in unsustainable and indiscriminate means to explore and exploite the natural resources of the continent. Deforestation, low precipitation and evapo-transpiration have resulted in the creation of climatic zones that are likely to have wide-ranging and potentially serious health consequences.1 Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Lack of a technological innovation paradigm on the continent to respond to the challenges posed by this climatic variability, means the continent is the most affected compared to other continents. The African continent’s climatic conditions are influenced by a set of complex maritime and terrestrial interactions, resulting in a variety of climates across the various regions. These complex climatic conditions are responsible for the continuous rainfall patterns observed in tropical Africa and the almost permanent droughts in the Sahara Desert. As has been observed elsewhere, the causes of these varied climatic conditions cannot be quantified, but it can be argued that climate exerts a significant control over the day-to-day economic development of Africa, particularly for the agricultural and water resources sectors at regional, local and household levels.2

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Since the 1960s, observed temperatures have indicated a warming trend across various geographical zones of the continent. Though there may be some dissimilarity in temperature readings, average decadal warming rates of 0.29c in Africa’s tropical forest has led to significant changes in vegetation cover and permutations with regard to flora and fauna in fragile ecosystems.3 The rise in decadal temperature in tropical Africa has, equally, resulted in a noted decline of about 2 to 4 per cent in mean annual precipitation.4 The impact of inaction by the sub-regional governments on climatic variability on the fragile ecosystem within the Lake Chad Basin is significant and has equally impacted on the human security dynamic within the sub-region. Suliman argued that the triangular relationship between people, environment and the economy is more direct in Africa than in developed countries, where that relationship is masked by technology.5 He further argued that the mutually beneficial relationship between trees, crops and animals has long been recognised and applied by African farmers for generations, which he noted was crucial to sustainability of the environment. However, post Second World War industrialisation and the insatiable demand for Africa’s environmental resources has led to noticeable degrading trends in the environment and making large parts of the continent unfit for human habitation.6 This critically implies that the effect of environmental degradation is a major cause behind pervasive poverty and environmental conflict in rural Africa. Deforestation of Africa’s tropical forest has had a tremendous impact on the nature and pattern of rainfall on the continent. Such unsustainable forest plucking has also led to a vast expanse of land being exposed to drought, soil erosion and depletion of grassland, which tend to enforce the negative implications of reduced rainfall and the advancement of the

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Sahara Desert. Though several continental instruments and frameworks exist to counter the negative effect of environmental degradation, effective policy implementation and a strong political will is lacking. The solution in resolving today’s climatic change conditions lies in our knowledge of the past. Nicolson posits that knowledge of past environments and how humans interact with it can help us understand human ecology and also provide lessons to enable society to adapt better to environmental constraints.7 This is particularly important in a region such as Africa, where the course of human history is closely coupled with that of the environment. It is therefore important to note that any changes to the climatic conditions of the region would have a corresponding negative effect on the population. In attempting to situate climate change within the wider scope of water degradation and human security, an understanding of the notion of cli14

mate change is desirable, as articulated in the preceding chapter on global

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

climatic conditions of the world are greatly felt on the African continent, where there are fewer technological innovations to deal with such impacts and the Lake Chad Basin is no exception in this regard. Though Kyoto 1 & II and several Organisation of African Unity, (OAU) and African Union (AU) frameworks on climate change have been adopted, the political will and practical implementation efforts are lacking. The Lake Chad Basin, which is a fragile ecosystem in the heart of the continent, is the most affected in terms of destruction of the ecosystem compounds and an observed reduction in the amount of water flowing into the basin. The impact of inaction on this degrading trend and on the human security paradigm in the region would be disastrous, considering that more than 20 million people depend on the Lake Chad Basin for their livelihood. The case study therefore appraises the impact of the degrading trends of the Lake Chad ecosystem on

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

change and climate change. The impact of such a fundamental shift in the

the human security paradigm in the conventional basin.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION IN LAKE CHAD Lake Chad is a large shallow lake at the confluence of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. See Figure 2.1. It was considered to be one of the largest lakes in the world when first surveyed by Europeans in 1823, but it has shrunk considerably since then. In retrospection, historical data suggest that the Lake mean has fluctuated over decades, centuries and millennia, responding to changes in the global temperature and regional precipitation.8 Bouchardeau maintains that Lake Chad is a remnant of the Paleochadian Sea, which covered an extensive surface area as observed on ancient geological maps.9 It has even been argued that the lake comes Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

close to disappearing in the course of history. These changes, it should be argued have more or less been on long time scales and were clearly caused by natural changes in the climatic system. Shrinkage, according to the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) is due to the effects of climate change and an increased demand on the lake’s water and its surrounding land. In the early 1960s, when the LCBC was formed, the lake covered an area of more than 26 000 km2, making it the fourth largest lake on the continent. By 2000 it had shrunk to less than 1 500 km2 due to reduced rainfall, competition for land use, increased amounts of irrigation water being drawn from the lake and the rivers that feed it.10 See Figure 2.2. The reduction of the lake’s water is of primary concern to the LCBC considering that the lake provides water and livelihoods to more than 20 million people in the four countries and several communities and culture depend on the lake’s resources to sustain their domestic, industrial,

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Figure 2.1: Geographic location of Lake Chad Basin.

agricultural fishing and other aquatic activities, often in most instances conducted at subsistence levels. The lake is also home to a variety of wildlife including crocodiles, waterfowl, shore birds and fish. Because of its shallowness, maximum 6 metres, the lake is particularly sensitive to small changes in climatic conditions, such as precipitation and temperature. Taking a historical precursor into Africa climatology suggests a recurrent variability trend in climatic conditions. Nicholson argued that historical descriptions of climatic records as found in local chronicles or oral tradiCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

tion should be subjected to scrutiny as it was common for the observer to selectively decide what information to include and dates often estimated.11 She further posited that the climate of the whole of the West African coast might be judged from observation at one or two places, such as Dakar or Accra, during one or two possibly quite unrepresentative years. A comparative analytical narrative on African climatic conditions would therefore merit a critical evaluation of different methodologies employed at different epochs. Scientific dating methods have equally vulgarized the understanding of climatic conditions during the unrecorded time in Africa.

16

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

Figure 2.2: Degradation trends in Lake Chad Basin based on satellite imagery. Source: NASA 2002.

CAUSES OF DECREASED WATER FLOW INTO LAKE CHAD Despite this sketchy understanding of African past climatic conditions, a noticeable changing trend has been observed since the 1960s on the variability of climatic conditions on the continent, especially in Central Africa where Lake Chad is situated. High resolution pollen and sediment analysis suggests that from about 1600 until the modern time, Lake Chad’s surface Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

was about 4 m above the modern mean. A causal analysis of this trend suggest that the reduction of the Lake Chad mean could have been as a result of the neo-Atlantic warming epoch during the medieval era.12 Oral tradition, together with archaeological dating suggests that Lake Chad probably dried up during this epoch. However, Pouyaud and Colombani argued that Lake Chad averaged 23 000 km2 in the nineteenth century.13 This historical understanding is indicative that the present drought or dry period is not a definitive turn for the desiccation of the lake, but rather a climatic and hydrological phase that could well change in the course of time. The present variability in the inflow and surface area of the lake started in the 1960s during West Africa’s disastrous Sahelian drought from 1963– 73.14 At the end of the drought, the surface area of the lake declined by more than 20 per cent to about 18 000km2. A more severe drought was witnessed

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CHAPTER 2

in the lake area between 1983 and 1988 that accounted for more than 60 per cent of the total volume and surface area of the lake.15 This degrading trend has continued and today, the surface area of the lake barely reaches 1350 km2. Several theories have been postulated to explain this downward trend and prominent amongst them is the climate change theory. Climate change represents a significant change in the observed climatological conditions of a given place over a period of time. Equally, any marked change in the average weather condition that a particular region experiences over time could qualify as a change in the climatic conditions of that region. According to the IPCC, it is estimated that the global mean surface temperature will rise by 1.5 to 3.5C by 2100.16 The impact of such a change in the world’s temperature is particularly significant considering that the World’s temperature has barely increased by a mere 2.5C since the last ice age. Thus, this observed change in climate could result in changes in precipitation, both increase and decrease and has an effect on the intensity and frequency of weather events, such as storms and floods and an increase in sea level due to the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of the mountain glaciers.17 Fragile ecosystems are precariously susceptible to this increase and the ecological balance could negatively affect the smooth functioning of the ecosystem. The changes in climatic conditions, it has been argued, are consistently associated with changes in a number of components of the hydrological cycle, primarily precipitation patterns. This has apparently made the exact prediction of climatic change over a period of time untenable taking into cognizant the fact that global precipitation is strongly influenced by large scale patterns of natural variability.18 These precipitation patterns and generally, global climate change are caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. Anthropogenic activities have

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

been at the centre of this increase such as the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation. It has been observed that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, has increased by 30 per cent since preindustrial times.19 This phenomenon therefore prevents the escape into the stratosphere of heat generated by the earth, thereby increasing the earth’s temperature. The impact of climate change on ecosystems on the African continent has been widely recorded and the Lake Chad Basin ecosystem is one of the highly affected ecosystems. Being at the fringe of the Sahara, high temperatures assure that the evaporation rates of the lake’s water would be high. Population pressure is another constant and consistent variable affecting the water level in the lake. According to the LCBC, by 2025, the population in the basin area is projected to be over 36 million from the current 22 million.20 Population explosion and uncontrolled migra18

tion and transhumance have equally exerted significant pressure on the

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

as 3 per cent of the Logone and Chari river waters is generally consumed by local communities along the rivers mainly for household use, small pottery holdings, bricklayer facilities and in petty and subsistence industries.21

DECREASED WATER FLOW INTO LAKE CHAD: IMPACT ON HUMAN SECURITY The concept of human security emerged from a post-World War II understanding of security that holds that a people-centred view of security is necessary for national, regional and global stability. The human security paradigm is predicated on the notion that ensuring freedom from want and freedom from fear for all persons is the best way to tackle the problem of

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

amount of water that flows into the lake. The LCBC estimated that as much

global insecurity and terrorism.22 The predominant pre-occupation within the human security paradigm entails the well-being of individuals and responses to ordinary people’s needs in dealing with sources of threat. Though critics of the concept are pre-occupied with the narratives relating to its vagueness, critical issues relating to its present significance and importance have not been refuted. Within this perspective, economic security, food, health, environmental, personal, community and political security became paramount trajectories in understanding the notion of security within an increasingly globalised world. The impact of climate change has had a tremendous effect on the human security paradigm within the Lake Chad Basin. Decreased quantity and quality water flow into the basin has unravelled a set of negative consequences that have impacted on the human security paradigm in the region. The livelihood of millions of fishermen, farmers and local peasants has been negatively affected. Their Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

income is not secure and many rely on the level of the lake to either fish or irrigate their small farm holdings or to use some of the water for household ménage. Thus, water security is an integral part of this broader concept of human security. It has equally been argued that ensuring that every person has reliable access to enough water at an affordable price would lead to a healthy, dignified and productive life. This maxim is also based on the fact that the ecological systems that provide the water and also depend on water are sustainably maintained.23 Several households in the region are unable to meet their daily economic needs, thereby forcing many to rely on World Food Programme (WFP) rations for the survival of the family. Economic insecurity is therefore an important security aspect with which the LCBC and governments in the region need to preoccupy themselves. As the table below indicates (Table

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2.1), countries in the region are on the lowest rank on the UNDP Human Development Index of 2006.

Table 2.1: Human development index (hdi) for countries in the Lake Chad Basin (2004) No.

Country

Human Dev’t Index (HDI)value

Life expectancy at birth

Adult literacy rate

GDP per Capita (US$)

144

Cameroon

0.506

45.7

67.9%

2,174

159

Nigeria

0.448

43.4

n/a

1,154

171

Chad

0.368

43.7

25.7%

2,090

172

CAR

0.353

39.1

48.6%

1,094

177

Niger

0.311

44.6

28.7%

779

Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2006, p.285– 286.

Niger, one of the countries of the region, was last on the HDI for three consecutive years. Apart from Cameroon, all the countries in the region are low on the Human Development Index, which presupposes pervasive poverty, malnutrition and a low literacy rate. The human security notion within such a society has been completely eroded as states have re-strategised to focus their strength on state security as a result of outside aggression from states such as Sudan. Massive irrigation projects along the rivers that feed into Lake Chad have drastically impacted on the ability of the riparian population to produce adequate food to address the needs of family and community. The Kano River Irrigation Project has necessitated the building of 20 dams along the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Komodugu-Yobe and the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands. On the other hand, the Maga Dam constructed along the Chari River has accounted for more than 30 per cent of the observed decrease of water into the lake area since 1960.24 This marked decrease has had a negative impact on the flourishing lake ecosystem and on the food production cycle in the region. The previously extensive rearing of livestock fisheries, hunting of wildlife, waterfowl and the exploitation of wetlands, forest and other wild products have been curtailed. With the above understanding, the ability of the riparian population producing and accessing basic foodstuffs has been compromised. The notion of food security, as an important human security dimension in the region, has been compromised because a sustained and assured constant availability of basic foodstuff to the riparian population cannot be guaranteed. Health security is an important aspect of the comprehensive security 20

consideration of several developing nations. The health aspect has become

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

by HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis and cholera. There is a general view on the continent that the health risk is the greatest security threat posed to the survival of states on the continent. The health security dilemma on the continent has been compounded by the negative effect of climate change in remote areas such as the Lake Chad Basin. In the lake basin, low protein and fibre intake as a result of low fish catches and decreasing food yield has made the population susceptible to diseases. Several cadres at the LCBC secretariat posited that the dry river beds in the basin have for some unexplained reasons brought river blindness sickness, meningitis and cholera.25 Poor road networks have equally prevented rapid evacuation of pregnant women to clinics. This has led to a high child mortality rate in the region. The Lake Chad Basin area is therefore experiencing a serious health security threat, because as a rural region access to medicine, clean water

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

so important as a result of the death toll to the productive population caused

and other health supplies is difficult. The Lake Chad Basin once boosted a rich biodiversity ecosystem unrivalled on the continent. Its unique mix of terrestrial and aquatic habitats hosts an impressive biodiversity of global significance.26 However, persistent droughts and rapid population growth have decimated what was once a thriving ecosystem in the Lake Chad Basin. Over the past four decades or so, the lake has shrunk to a shadow of what it used to be in the early 1960s. During this period, the western Sahel region appears to have undergone an abrupt hydro-climatic transition from a wetter to a drier rainfall state, culminating into two major droughts in 1972–74 and 1983–84.27 There is a general understanding amongst some scientists working at the LCBC that the lake could eventually fill up. This is premised on the fact that the lake filled up after the droughts of 1905–908, 1974–79 and after the 1984–85 droughts.28 Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

The causes of these phenomena have been classified into three main categories. First is deterioration of the natural environment; second is anthropogenic activities upstream; and last is climate change. Deterioration of the natural environment has been a major concern to the LCBC and it has been the focus of several studies to ameliorate the soil condition of the basin. Over-grazing in the basin has exposed the soil to weather elements that, over the years, have facilitated soil erosion. Soil erosion has equally precipitated sedimentation in the lake, which is at the forefront of the creation of wasteland in and around the lake. Anthropogenic activities involve the unsustainable utilisation of farming and water drawing techniques. Another area of environmental concern is over-grazing and wood fuel harvesting techniques that have rendered several hitherto forest areas into deserts. Global warming, caused by the emission of greenhouse gases, on the other hand has resulted in erratic rainfall patterns in the region that,

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to a large extent, has resulted in low water flow into the lake.29 Thus, the environmental security threat these phenomena pose to the population of the area cannot be under-estimated. Coupled with this is the lack of cooperation in managing the bioresources of the lake. A general misgiving exists between Cameroon and Nigeria over the strategic direction of the secretariat of the LCBC, thereby lending to its paralysis. Secondly, there is a lack of concerted effort by the international community in providing the necessary technical and financial assistance in ameliorating the various technical projects contemplated by the LCBC. The Secretary General of the LCBC indicated that this was a major concern to member states and it would impact negatively on the various projects identified to ameliorate the plight of the riparian population. One of the principal dimensions of human security is the ability to protect oneself against physical harm and violence. Personal security therefore assumes an important trajectory in understanding the notion of human security. Within the Lake Chad Conventional Basin the various violent conflicts and rampant crime have undermined personal security in the region. In Chad, the constant political and armed bickering between the ruling party and armed rebels has endangered the personal security of many Chadians. In February 2008, during an attempted coup d’etat in Chad, more than 600 civilians were killed in the cross-fire between loyal forces and rebels.30 The situation in the Central Africa Republic is no different. An active armed rebellion has rendered ineffective the ability of the state to provide personal security to its population. In Niger, the Tuareg rebellion has unleashed a wave of violence against the local population in their attempt to overthrow the central government. Violent crime, kidnapping and highway robbery, which is a permanent feature along the Cameroon, Nigeria, Chad and CAR border, has equally put the personal security of several million people at

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risk. The demobilised Chadian and CAR republic soldiers who took part in the 2003 rebellion to oust the former president of CAR, Ange Felix Pattasse, has also given another dimension to the notion of personal security. From the foregone analysis, the personal security of millions of people living in the conventional Lake Chad Basin have been compromised and the state can no longer guarantee the safety of its population in their homes and at their place of work. Community relations in the Lake Chad Basin area are far from cordial. People from different nationalities in the area usually engage in violent confrontation, leading to a loss of life and the destruction of property. In the early 1980s, conflict over fishing rights in Lake Chad between Nigerians and Chadians led to a protracted war between the two countries. The tension between Chad and Sudan over Darfur has also endangered the security 22

of communities living in the area. Transhumance has equally led to violent

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

tions in the area, especially between the Zaghawa, Fufulbe and Bororos, have been tense. Thus, there is a permanent threat against members of the communities from across national boundaries and from other communities. Political security, as it relates to freedom of speech and the observation of basic human rights, are important elements within the human security domain. Human rights violations, it has been argued, are most frequent during periods of political unrest. Three of the five countries that form part of the conventional Lake Chad Basin are experiencing political unrest. There is therefore a high propensity for the governments of these countries to violate the basic principles of human rights. In all the countries of the basin, there are still political prisoners and the unexplained disappearance of political opponents. There is limited political liberalisation and this has led to a more strategic realignment of the notion of political security in the region.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

confrontation between cattle herders and farmers in the basin. Ethnic rela-

These hordes of human insecurity paradigm expatiated have been linked to the impacts of climate change on the various sectors of the Lake Chad ecosystem. The limited water supply to inhabitants of the Lake Chad Basin is a paradox to the assertion that there is enough water in the world for domestic purposes, for agriculture and for industry.31 It has also been argued that because of poverty, such as that in Lake Chad, millions of poor people are systematically excluded from access to infrastructure that provides water for life and for livelihoods. As indicated by several cadres at the LCBC Secretariat in Ndjamena, the quantity and quality of water that flows into Lake Chad is a consequence of the political decisions of the Council of Heads of State of the LCBC. With little technological innovation and know-how, the region cannot boast of effectively upholding the basic human rights of its citizens. The above fundamental human security concerns affecting the people Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

of the Lake Chad Basin region falls in line with a violation of some basic principles of social justice. It has been argued that the prevalence of the insecurity trajectories expatiated above within the Lake Chad Basin area tramples on basic social justice principles of the people in the area such as equal citizenship, equality of opportunity and fair distribution.32 The principle of equal citizenship presupposes that everybody is entitled to an equal set of civil, political and social rights.33 Water scarcity compromises these rights and renders many people vulnerable to preventable water diseases. The principle of equality of opportunity to citizens in the affected areas could well be explained within the realm of the inability of people in water scarce areas to attend schools or to fall sick when attacked by water borne disease. These have a negative impact on the right of the people to safe water, which is enjoyed by millions of people in towns and other areas.

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LCBC TRANS-BORDER WATER MANAGEMENT POLICIES: ATTEMPTS AT ADDRESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE RIPARIAN POPULATION The United Nations, and more specifically, the Economic and Social Counciland the now defunct Organisation of African Unity placed special emphasis on harnessing and utilising water resources by its member states. Such recognition stresses the importance of multi-lateralism in the regulation and use of waters. It is within this backdrop that the Lake Chad Basin Commission was created following the Fort Lamy Convention (Ndjamena), signed on 22 May 1964 by the heads of state of the four countries bordering Lake Chad, namely Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria and Chad.34 One of the principal concerns of the founding heads of state was that since schemes drawn up by member states for the utilisation of the water in the Lake Chad Basin are liable to affect the regimes of the basin and thereby its exploitation by other member states, it was desirable then to create a commission to prepare general regulations to ensure their effective application.35 Upon ratification of the treaty establishing the LCBC, member states embarked on developmental initiatives to address the dire economic needs of the riparian population. These initiatives were principally geared to creating irrigation schemes and water management projects to enhance economic development of the area. Within the realm of such understanding, the LCBC helped the Chadian government in creating the Societe de Development Du Lac Chad (SODILAC). In Nigeria, the Kano River Irrigation Project (KRIP) was created and the Societe d’Expansion et de Modernisation de la Riziculture de Yagoua (SEMRY) saw the light of day in Cameroon.36 The operationalisation of these gigantic projects signalled a major shift in water policies of the LCBC, as the total amount of water inflow into the lake drastically reduced over the years. For example, the SEMRY project

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necessitated the construction of the Maga Dam on the Chari River, which is responsible for 95 per cent of the Lake Chad water. This accounted for a 30 per cent observed decrease in water flow into Lake Chad. SODILAC and KRIP equally accounted for a huge volume of water lost to the lake. These activities, coupled with the impact of climate change and other anthropogenic activities, have had a huge impact on the volume of water in Lake Chad and its ecology. In 2005, the lake covered an area of 1350 square kilometres, far from its 1963 size of 25 000 square kilometre.37 This regressive nature of the lake is occurring at a time when the population depending on the lake’s resources has increased dramatically over the years – estimated to be 36 million in 2025.38 The challenge for the LCBC is to lessen the impact of such degrading trends and to embark on alternative income generating projects to absorb 24

the ever increasing population of the Lake Chad Basin. To address this

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

of land and water degradation trends in the Lake Chad Basin Ecosystem” (commonly called the strategic action programme). The study identifies and attempts to address the seven priority regional environmental concerns that the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis also identified. These include the variability of the hydrological regime and freshwater availability, water pollution, decreased viability of biological resources, the loss of biodiversity, the loss and modification of ecosystems, sedimentation in rivers and water bodies and invasive species.39 With regard to the variability of the hydrological regime and freshwater availability, the LCBC has embarked on a gigantic inter-basin water transfer project. The Inter-basin Water Transfer Project (IBWT) of the LCBC, as the project is called, seeks to transfer fresh water from the Oubangui and Congo rivers to Lake Chad by constructing a dam at Palambo in the CAR. The water would be transferred via channels to

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

daunting challenge, the LCBC commissioned a study entitled “Reversal

river Fafa, which is a tributary river of the Chari River, one of the main water sources of Lake Chad. With seed money for the feasibility study already available and the two Congos giving their assurances of support, the project could well be operational in the coming years. Though the project comes with its own challenges, such as the transfer of an equatorial ecosystem to a Sahel one, the paramount objective of replenishing Lake Chad could be realised. Though the LCBC acknowledged that there has never been a scientific study to determine the purity or presence of harmful chemicals in the lake’s water, there was clear indication that the water of the lake was not safe for use by households and factory industries in the area. Soil erosion and sedimentation are perhaps the principal concerns with regard to the quality of water. However, the major pre-occupation of the authorities of the LCBC with regard to pollution is based on foreseeable trends, rooted mainly in the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

absence of working regulations and standards for environmental protection.40 The activities of large rice and cotton producers in the area are not properly regulated. SODILAC, SEMRY and CEMENCAM are known users of large quantities of chemicals with no structured or well-managed chemical disposal framework. Increasing oil production in Doba, Southern Chad has led to increased urbanisation and pollution of the water bodies from oil spills. Such uncontrolled activities would lead to water pollution with a negative impact on the quality and quantity of fish catches and a possible increase in invasive species.41 In order to address the problems associated with water pollution, the LCBC Strategic Action Plan for 2008 intended to develop and implement a regional surface water quality monitoring programme focused on critical contaminants and hotspots. The action plan also intended to report on contaminant levels in the lake every three years and to make proposals for

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remedial action. Though the action plan also attempted to strengthen the water quality monitoring network by establishing the Earth Observation System,42 there was pressure for the commission to institute a polluter pays principle. The LCBC also recognised that the challenge in restoring the water quality of Lake Chad and the decreased viability of biological resources should be given a multi-lateral approach. This explains why Africa Water Vision for 2025 is now the cornerstone of the LCBC water policy. Africa Water Vision strives for an Africa where there is equitable and sustainable use and management of water resources for poverty alleviation, socio-economic development, regional cooperation and the environment.43 Taking its cue from Africa Water Vision, the LCBC adopted Lake Chad Basin Water Vision 2025. The objective ofLCBC Vision 2025 is to see the: Lake Chad common heritage and other wetlands maintained at sustainable levels to ensure the economic security of the freshwater ecosystem resources, sustained biodiversity and aquatic resources of the basin, the use of which should be equitable to serve the needs of the population of the basin thereby reducing the poverty level.44

All these frameworks are aimed at maintaining the water levels of the lake and at ensuring that utilisation of the resources of the lake benefit all inhabitants of the Conventional Basin. Sound water policies, the LCBC have acknowledged, is the key to sustainability of all other efforts in the preservation of the Lake Chad ecosystem. Loss of biodiversity and modification of ecosystems has been attributed to evapo-transipration and the ever encroaching Sahara Desert. The LCBC has engaged on an ambitious project in halting the encroachment of the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

desert by erecting sand dunes fixation and a massive re-vegetation programme. The reforestation programme is intended to improve soil texture, thereby reducing evaporation and trans-evaporation, as well as creating protected areas such as parks and reserves. Reforestation is also aimed at trapping sand storm particles and ensuring that wasteland creation is minimized in the Lake Basin area. One of the principal objectives of the LCBC was to ensure that the Conventional Lake Chad Basin was self-sufficient with regard to agricultural produce. It is within this realm that immediately after the creation of the LCBC in 1964 five technical divisions were created to cater for agriculture, animal husbandry, fisheries, water resources, civil engineering and telecommunications. The aim was to increase agricultural production and to reconstitute the herds of cattle that were destroyed during years 26

of drought experienced by LCBC member countries.45 The following table

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ensure food sufficiency in the Lake Chad Basin.

Table 2.2: LCBC initiatives

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No.

PROJECT

OBJECTIVES

STATUS

1

Agricultural Training Centre, Ngala, Nigeria

To increase agricultural production in the conventional Basin through training and supervision of agriculture extension workers for forestry and agricultural mechanization.

Has been operational since 1977. Trained approximately 80 students from LCBC member countries per batch since 1977.

2

Agricultural Development Centre, Diffa, Niger

To improve on the hydro-agricultural (irrigation schemes) facilities in the Diffa district.

Project handed over to the Niger government in 1990.

3

Hydro-agricultural land, Lada, Niger

To improve on the hydro-agricultural (irrigation schemes) facilities in the Lada district.

Project handed over to the Niger government in 1990.

4

Fruit Farming Development Project, Far North Province, Cameroon

To enhance the cultivation of fruit trees in the area. It was aimed at producing fruit plants in a nursery and making them available to farmers in the Conventional Basin.

Project handed over to the government of Cameroon in 1990.

5

Centre for Agricultural Development, Ndou, Cameroon

To produce different varieties of rice in the Far North Province of Cameroon.

Project handed over to the government of Cameroon in 1975.

6

Centre for Agricultural Development, Koundoul, Chad

To develop and improve on the hydro-agricultural (irrigation schemes) facilities in the village of Koundoul.

Centre destroyed during the Chadian civil war of 1980s. Was rehabilitated and re-equipped in 1986. Handed to the Chadian government in 1990.

7

Kouri Project

To save and develop the Kouri cattle breed, which is only found in the Lake Chad area. The Kouri cattle has high quality milk and meat but is threatened with extinction.

Project suspended in Chad and Nigeria, but operational in Niger.

8

Centre for the Development of Agriculture, Malo, Chad

To develop and improve on the hydro-agricultural (irrigation schemes) facilities in the village of Malo.

Centre destroyed during the Chadian civil war of the 1980s. Was rehabilitated and re-equipped in 1986. Handed to the Chadian government in 1990.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

(Table 2.2) illustrates the various initiatives undertaken by the LCBC to

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9

Yaeres Project

To improve the exploitation of natural pastures in Cameroon Yaeres through the digging of artificial watering pools.

Operational.

10

Fishery Centre, Djimtilo, Chad

To: improve fishing techniques on Lake Chad and its affluent; improve fish conservation techniques; ensure constant training of trainers; harmonise and transmit results of research and training.

Centre destroyed during the Chadian civil war of 1980s. Was rehabilitated and re-equipped.

11

Forestry Centres (established in all LCBC member states)

The centres were to assist in the campaign against ecological degradation and desertification in the region by restoring forest cover.

Centres transferred to respective governments in 1990

Source: Adapted from Lake Chad Bulletin, No.1, June 2003, pp.8-10.

Although the above projects were principally designed to improve the agricultural output of the region, the LCBC also carried out several other projects to minimise the negative effects of the shrinking of the lake and to lessen the impact such shrinking was having on the livelihood of inhabitants of the Conventional Basin area. The projects included establishing a reliable telecommunications network for transmission of data by telephone between Maidugari in Nigeria, Ndjamena in Chad and Kousseri in Cameroon. Other projects centred on the construction of roads in the Conventional Basin and

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the demarcation of borders of LCBC member states in the Lake Chad Basin.46

CONCLUSION There is a general perception in the scientific world that Lake Chad could disappear completely within the next three decades or so. But a cursory look at the history of the lake suggests that the present downturn has been experienced before. Thus, the lake may well be going through a phase, as the droughts of 1905 to 1908, 1974 to 1979 and 1984 to 1985 have been followed by massive inundations. It is therefore possible that the present situation could be followed by massive filling up as the climatic conditions in the lake’s catchment area change. The anthropogenic and climatic conditions during these periods may be different from what is seen today, but the source of water has not changed and the conventional basin of the lake has dramatically increased with the admission of Sudan and Libya as titular 28

members of the LCBC – thereby extending the catchment area of the lake.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

ecosystem is as important as the unsupervised anthropogenic activities carried out along the feed rivers of the lake. Dam construction along the feed rivers and chemical waste disposal in the lake are as disastrous to the lake’s ecosystem as is evapo-transpiration caused by higher temperature as a result of the presence in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases. This chapter has argued that the shrinking lake is a combination of anthropogenic activities and climatic phenomenon. The onus, the paper argued, is on the leaders of the LCBC member countries to put in place structures and policies to redress the situation. The urgency in addressing the situation cannot be over-emphasised considering that more than 20 million people depend on the resources of the lake for their livelihood. The chapter contends that the efforts employed by member states to ameliorate the condition of the Lake Chad Basin ecosystem would come to

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

This article argues that the impact of climate change on the Lake Chad

naught if a leading state does not emerge to champion the cause. Nigeria’s supremacy in the region, recognized by the founding members following the pattern of financial contribution to the functioning of the LCBC, has not been felt outside the corridors of the LCBC.47 Nigeria needs to pull its weight and make sure that the strategic action plan of the LCBC and policy directions are fully complied with by member countries. This should be done within a cordial and amicable working environment. The uncooperative working relationship between the Executive Secretary General and Assistant Executive Secretary General within the current managerial structure of the LCBC is a cause for concern. Several policy documents have not been adopted and budgetary allocations to certain departments at the LCBC Secretariat have not been effected, due to a breakdown of trust between the two senior managers. It is the opinion of the paper that a supervisory body be appointed to coordinate the activities of all departments at the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

LCBC Secretariat. The Commissioners from each member country could well form the nucleus of this supervisory body. In that respect, a cordial working relationship would be maintained and conflict situations hastily managed and dealt with. A key finding of the inability of the member states of LCBC to provide a workable solution to the problems plaguing the Lake Chad Basin Ecosystem is the perceived inability of state institutions in LCBC member countries to operate as a democratic entity as a result of conflict and pervasive poverty. Almost all LCBC member states are either experiencing war or are recovering from it. It is therefore difficult for such countries to devote considerable resources to the environment. Enormous state resources are diverted towards protecting the state or diverted into the private accounts of senior members of government. With regard to poverty, and with the exception of Cameroon and recently Libya, all member states of the LCBC fall within the bottom tier

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of the HDI. The paper contends that pervasive poverty and a low illiteracy rate is one of the principal reasons why environmental education means very little to the local population. Human insecurity, the paper argues, is one of the major challenges of climate change in the region. Pervasive poverty caused by a gradual degrading trend in the environment and water quality has had a significant impact on the livelihood and health of the population in the riparian area. Climate change therefore has an impact on the human security condition of the people in the area. It is the opinion of the chapter that if the impacts of climate change are not addressed, the human security condition of the people in the region will constantly be at risk. The various policy recommendations adopted by the LCBC, such as the Lake Chad Vision 2025 and the 2008 Strategic Action Plan, should be scrupulously implemented, with an eye on achievable targets. The feasibility studies on the Inter-Basin Water Transfer Initiative should be made available to the heads of state of LCBC member countries so as to fast-track the appointment of the preferred bidder for the water transfer project. The LCBC articulation of a robust approach in addressing the challenges posed by climate change in the Lake Chad Basin should be supported by the international community through providing the necessary technical and financial aid, because the severity of inaction would not only affect the riparian population but also the entire ecological and climatic haven of the African continent – with disastrous human and physical repercussions.

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NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

Climate Change and Human Health @ http://www.answers.com/topic/climate-change accessed on 04/12/08.

2

Michel Boko et al. Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M. L. Parry et al. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p.436.

3

Ibid.

4

Ibid.

5

Mohamed Suliman, Climate Change and Environmental Conflicts in Africa, in Hans Bass et al (eds) African Development Perspectives Yearbook 1990/91, Industrialisation Based on Agricultural Development, Die Deutsche Bibliothek, Bremen, 1992, p.314.

6

Ibid.

7

Sharon Nicholson, Environmental Change within the Historical Period, in W. Adams et al (eds) The Physical Geography of Africa, Oxford University Press, New York, 1996, p.60.

8 30

Michael Glantz, Lake Cghad and the Aral Sea: A sad tale of two lakes, @ http://www. fragilecologies.com/sep09_04.html Accessed on 26/09/08.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Andre Bouchardean, Le Lac Chad, in Annuaire Hydrogique dela France D’outre-Mer, 1956, p.9.

10 LCBC Secretariat, Reversal of Land and Water Degradation Trends in the Lake Chad Basin Ecosystem, GEF funded Project overview, Ndjamena, 2008, p.1 . 11 Sharon Nicholson, Environmental Change within the Historical Period, in W. Adams et al (eds) The Physical Geography of Africa, Oxford University Press, New York, 1996, p.61. 12 Ibid, p.64. 13 B. Pouyaud et J. Colombani, Les Variations extremes du lac Tchad: L’assechement est-il possible? In Annales de Geographie, No.545, 1989, p.4. 14 Michael Glantz, Lake Chad and the Aral Sea: A sad tale of two lakes, @ http://www. fragilecologies.com/sep09_04.html Accessed on 26/09/08. 15 Ibid. 16 Climate Change and Human Health @ http://www.answers.com/topic/climate-change Accessed on 04/12/08. 17 Ibid.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER DEGRADATION

9

18 IPCC Technical paper on climate Change and water, Geneva, 2008 @ http://www.ipcc. ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf accessed on 15/12/08. 19 Climate Change and Human Health @ http://www.answers.com/topic/climate-change accessed on 04/12/08. 20 LCBC, Integrated River Basin Management: Challenges of the Lake Chad Basin, Vision 2025, Ndjamena, p.4. 21 Interview with Mr Mohammed Billa, the LCBC/GEF Project Co-ordinator for Lake Chad, Ndjamena, 23 August 2008. 22 Human Security @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_security accessed on 17/12/08. 23 Human Development Report 2006, Beyond Scarcity: Power, poverty and global water crisis, UNDP, 2006, p.3.

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24 Moses Cho, Mitigation of wetland degradation in the Lake Chad Basin, Unpublished Msc Dissertation submitted as part requirement for the International Msc Programme for Nature Conservation and Biodiversity Management, Saxion Gogeschool Ijselland Deventer, Netherland, 2001, p.29. 25 Interview with Mr Mohammed Billa, the LCBC/GEF Project Co-ordinator for Lake Chad, Ndjamena, 23 August 2008. 26 UNEP, Impacts on Africa’s Lakes: Case Studies of Africa’s Changing Lakes @ http:// www.africafocus.org/docs06/lake0609.php accessed on 1/10/08. 27 Ibid. 28 Interview with Mr Mohammed Billa, the LCBC/GEF Project Co-ordinator for Lake Chad, Ndjamena, 23 August 2008. 29 Interview with the Adamu Mohammed Sani, Executive Secretary of the LCBC, N’djamena, 28 August 2008. 30 Interview with Mr Mohammed Billa, the LCBC/GEF Project Co-ordinator for Lake Chad, Ndjamena, 23 August 2008. 31 Human Development Report 2006, Beyond Scarcity: Power, poverty and global water crisis, UNDP, 2006, p.3. 32 Ibid, p.4.

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33 Ibid, p.3. 34 Lake Chad Bulletin, Newsletter of the Lake Chad Commission, No.0000, November 2001, p.5 35 Ibid. 36 Moses Cho, Mitigation of wetland degradation in the Lake Chad Basin, Unpublished MSc Dissertation submitted as part requirement for the International MSc Programme for Nature Conservation and Biodiversity Management, Saxion Gogeschool Ijselland Deventer, Netherland, 2001, p.34. 37 Michael Glantz, Lake Cghad and the Aral Sea: A sad tale of two lakes, @ http://www. fragilecologies.com/sep09_04.html accesses on 26/09/08. 38 LCBC, Integrated River Basin Management: Challenges of the Lake Chad Basin, Vision 2025, Ndjamena, p.4. 39 LCBC, Strategic Action Programme for the Lake Chad Basin, Ndjamena, June 2008, p.i. 40 Ibid, p.7. 41 Ibid. 42 Ibid, p.14. 43 Ibid, p.2. 44 LCBC, Integrated River Basin Management: Challenges of the Lake Chad Basin, Vision 2025, Ndjamena, p.7. 45 Lake Chad Bulletin, No.1, June 2003, p.7. 46 Lake Chad Bulletin, No.1, June 2003, p.12.

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47 The contribution formula in force in LCBC stood at Nigeria (52%), Cameroon (26%), Chad (11%), Niger (7%) and the CAR (4%). Also see LCBC News Magazine, N0.1, vol.1, March 2008, p.15.

32

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The maze climate change brought to rain-fed agriculture Edmore Kori

CHAPTER 3

Rainfall variability and crop production

INTRODUCTION

P

recipitation is one of the most important climate elements directly affecting the availability of water resources. Water availability is the most critical factor for sustaining crop productivity in rain-fed agri-

culture and rainfall has always determined and influenced crop production on a large scale. Climate change and rainfall variation pose serious risks to rain-fed crop production in the semi-dry agro-ecological zones of Africa. Rainfall variability has significantly impacted on the rural poor,1 who rely on natural rainfall for crop production. The impacts vary from droughts, floods, storms and coastal inundation to ecosystem degradation, heat waves, wild fires, epidemics and even conflict over land. The frequency of the climatic extremes has increased in the past century, significantly reducing crop yields2,3,4 and forcing farmers to adopt new agricultural techniques fitting Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

the altered conditions. Their effects are compounded by the fact that rainfed agriculture is commonly practiced in developing countries where farmers are finding it difficult to adapt.5,6,7,8 Rain-fed agriculture is a dominant mode of food production in most of rural Sub-Saharan Africa9 and for this reason it is important to study rainfall patterns and variability in line with agricultural land-use and production. Reliance of the agricultural sector on natural rainfall places it at serious risk of shrinkage due to inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variations. With the declining rainfall trends in Southern Africa and most of the Sub-Saharan Africa region,10,11 agricultural production is most likely to decline, raising concerns about issues of food security in the region. Marginal rain-fed agricultural areas, with low and erratic precipitation, are the most vulnerable and worst affected. Especially difficult to predict are changes in rainfall patterns. Droughts or floods result in low

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and unpredictable levels of crop production due to changing agricultural conditions.12 Almost all of the increased hunger-related effects are expected to wreak havoc in Sub-Saharan Africa.13 The dominant factor to all the challenges is rainfall variability. Climate change in Southern Africa is expected to have a severe impact on agriculture, as it is projected that the frequency of droughts will increase. There will be higher spatial variability in rainfall and this will have a negative effect on farming on already marginal lands. The seasonal amount and its intra-seasonal distribution determine the impact of rainfall on crop production. Extreme cases of drought, with very low total seasonal precipitation, result in the worst effects on crop production.14 This is especially true for semi-arid areas that rely on natural rainfall for agricultural production. Agriculture is the mainstay of rural economies in South Africa and indeed throughout much of Africa. Climate change impact assessments done by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),15 Rugumayo, et al.,16 and Buddenhagen, et al.17 conclude that rain-fed agriculture in Africa risks negative impacts due to climate change. Rain-fed agricultural production in Africa, in general, is projected to fall by up to 50 per cent by 202018 and in Southern Africa in particular by 2080. Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from: −100 per cent to +168 per cent in econometric assessments; from −84 per cent to +62 per cent in process-based assessments; and from −57 per cent to +30 per cent in statistical assessments.19 Such impacts spell serious food security challenges for the continent. Meanwhile in Southern Africa, just like many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, poor communities cannot afford irrigation, a plausible option for dry spell seasons. Rainfall variability therefore becomes a critical component of crop production in the region. The quantity and temporal distribution

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of rainfall is generally the single most important determinant of fluctuations in national and sub-national crop production levels.20,21 Blignaut, et al.,22 found that for South Africa, 1 per cent rainfall decline can lead to 1.1 per cent decline in summer maize yields and 0.5 per cent fall in winter wheat production. The challenge resides in the fact that about 37 per cent of maize-growing areas in the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region are located in areas that experience significant seasonal rainfall variability.23 Such a scenario results in a significant effect on crop production. In South Africa, rainfall is often erratic and unreliable. Rainfall variability and associated droughts have historically been major causes of food shortages and famines.24,25 Given the projections that current rainfall is likely to be reduced by between 5 per cent and 10 per cent, accompanied by a projected increase in temperature of 1°C to 3°C, intra-seasonal rainfall 34

distribution becomes of the utmost importance.26,27 Areas with high rainfall

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

sistence farming in the developing world is practiced in a wide range of environmental conditions - from very suitable to marginal lands. Even though rainfall variability is not a new phenomenon in South African agriculture, its frequency of occurrence has reportedly increased recently.28 Yet in South Africa, very few studies have considered in detail the relationships between crop yields and rainfall variability. At the national scale, the link between drought and crop production has been documented (e.g. Blignaut, et al.29). However, the detail of specific events at regional and sub-regional scales, remains uncovered.30,31 Rainfall patterns significantly influence the type of crops cultivated by farmers as well as the crop productivity, especially in semi-arid regions.32 Adaptation by farmers could significantly reduce the negative effects of rainfall variability brought about by climate change.33 Therefore farmers have to grow crops that will perform well in the given conditions. This

RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND CROP PRODUCTION

and low variability are suitable for rain-fed crop cultivation. However, sub-

poses a challenge to farmers who cultivate crops for domestic consumption, but do not know what to expect – drought or flooding. At times farmers find themselves on the wrong side of the climatic maze. For instance, a farmer may plant drought resistant crops only to find that the season receives abundant rainfall. It is important for us to understand the implications of climate change on crop production, as it has a bearing on food security. Of the many crops grown in South Africa, maize is one of the staple foods with an annual increase in demand of 3 per cent 34 and it contributes 71 per cent to the grains produced in South Africa.35 In addition, maize production covers 58 per cent of the cropping area in Southern Africa;36 and with 50 per cent of the maize in the SADC region produced in South Africa, this makes South Africa the major source of food for the rest of the region. However, 60 per cent of maize Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

is produced in the drier cropping areas of South Africa. Adverse climate impacts on agriculture in South Africa may therefore destabilise not only the country, but in the end a whole region.37 Maize requires 500 – 1000 mm rainfall in the South African October to March growing season to attain its optimum production potential.38,39 The crop is sensitive to soil moisture stress. Rainfall distribution during the season determines soil moisture. Adequate moisture has to be available during critical stages of crop growth for optimum yield. From the beginning of flowering to the end of grain formation, and during the tasseling period, a significant proportion of final yield can be lost by moisture stress.40,41 Maize is also sensitive to humid conditions, as these make it more susceptible to disease. Therefore maize cultivation requires moisture in the correct quantities and at the right stages of growth in order to achieve the best yield.

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In a study of Mangondi Village in Limpopo Province of South Africa, Ziervogel, et al.42 conclude that one of the constraints facing the community is climate variability. South Africa, in general, has been approximately 2 per cent hotter and at least 6 per cent drier over the ten years between 1997 and 2006, compared to the 1970s.43 The numerous droughts and floods, especially in the last decade, personify climate variability. The researchers further observe that the rainy season is now starting and finishing later than normal (September and March, respectively). Eight out of the nine provinces in South Africa have received progressively less rainfall since 1970.44 The variance from the mean has increased for the less arid areas, indicating increasing unpredictability and the occurrence of extreme events. The fluctuating rainfall trend was also emphasised by Nnyaladzi45 in a study of rainfall patterns in Southern Africa between 1975 and 2005. Thus, amongst other influences on agricultural production in Southern Africa, rainfall variability is arguably the most significant.46 Farmers feel the impact of climate change largely through changes in the timing, frequency and intensity of rainfall events, and in the distribution of these events within a season of growth.47 Such rainfall distribution characteristics produce a correlation between rainfall and crop production. With climate changing and rainfall becoming variable, the number of people at risk of hunger is projected to increase by 10 per cent to 20 per cent by 2050.48 This rainfall variation scenario is true for Nzhelele River valley where agricultural production is highly influenced by rainfall fluctuations. This can be attributable to unpredictability of the rainfall patterns of the area in recent years. The patterns and amount of rainfall are among the most important factors that affect agricultural systems. This chapter looks at the relationship between rainfall variability and the dynamics of maize

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production.

NZHELELE VALLEY CASE STUDY Nzhelele valley is located along the Soutpansberg mountain range of South Africa, sandwiched approximately between 220 52’S and 220 56’S latitude and 300 06’E and 300 15’E. It is situated about 37 km west of Sibasa and 60 km northeast of Louis Trichardt. Nzhelele valley is a rural settlement. Crop cultivation is mainly rain-fed, but a few households depend on the Nzhelele River, which cuts across the valley from east to west, for irrigation water supply. The area has two seasons, namely winter (that begins in May and ends in August) and summer (that begins in September and ends in April), with a windy transition from winter to summer. 36

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

mm. This is suitable for maize cultivation. Maize requires between 500 and 100 mm of rainfall during its growing season.49

50

The main soil types in

the area are fertile clay soil, sandy soil, sandy-clay-loam soil and clay-loam soil, which are ideal for crops, especially maize. The drainage of the area mostly involves the Nzhelele River and its tributaries. This case study considers how climate variability influences agricultural decision making and affects crop production by subsistence farmers along the Nzhelele valley. We consider rainfall trends shown by figures obtained from three weather stations serving six subsistence farming communities along the valley. Two rainfall distribution elements were computed: absolute rainfall variation and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). This data is compared to maize production to show the influence that rainfall variability has brought to rain-fed subsistence agriculture. Rainfall data was obtained from the South African Weather Services at

RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND CROP PRODUCTION

The area receives annual rainfall ranging between 400 mm and 800

the regional office in Vuwani as well as the Pretoria Head Office. Agricultural data was obtained from the Department of Agriculture (Makhado) and representative committees of local farmers in the study area. The representative committee members are farmers from the area. The committees keep records of the agricultural activities in their areas; hence they are a source of reliable data. Maize production data from the committees reported annual quantities of 50 kg bags 51. The 50 kg bag is the standard used to convert production to tons. Three weather stations service the study areas under review. The weather stations are Siloam, Mandala and Vondo. The choice of stations was based on their spatial distribution along the Nzhelele valley. The Vondo station serves Fondwe, the Mandala station serves Mandala and the Siloam station serves the Rabali, Tshavhalovhedzi, Mphaila, Tshiswenda and Tshituni Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

areas. Precipitation data from these were monthly and annual statistics. PCI52

53 54

was applied to determine the seasonal rainfall variability. We

considered rainfall statistics from October of the previous year to March of the following year, respectively. These months mark the beginning and end of the rainy season, during which time maize is cultivated. The following formula is used for PCI:

Where : Pi = monthly precipitation PCI represents rainfall variability for each cropping season. It shows rainfall distribution in the six month rainy season. The PCI values show the

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characteristics of the season from uniform to isolated or irregular precipitation, as shown in Table 3.1. A PCI value under the uniform category depicts less variability while a value under isolated or irregular means high variability.

Table 3.1: Precipitation Concentration Index value interpretation55,56 PCI

Interpretation

50

Isolated or irregular

Absolute rainfall variation is calculated from the mean of 600 mm per annum. We employed regression analysis to evaluate the relationship between rainfall variation and agricultural production. PCI values were the independent variables, while maize production statistics were the dependent variables. Tables and graphs then illustrated the results.

RAINFALL VARIABILITY Despite a predicted decline in rainfall in Southern Africa.57,existing statics reveal that the valley received a mean annual rainfall of 1122, 11 mm (standard dev. = 730.3) during the period under review. This is way above the mean annual rainfall of 600 mm. Rainfall statistics show that the year Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

2000 was characterised by relatively large amounts of rainfall throughout the valley. Total rainfall in 2000 ranged from 3675, 8 mm in Vondo in the east to 2729, 9 mm in the western part of the study area. Siloam, which is in the western part of the valley, received the least amount of precipitation. Siloam generally received below average rainfall in the area during the period under review. However, the 2000 figures are way above the mean annual rainfall of the period because of Cyclone Eline that brought torrential rains. What matters in a season, however, is not necessarily the total amount of precipitation recorded. The distribution of the precipitation throughout the season is also important, as crops should not experience water and / or moisture stress at critical stages of growth. This is especially true for maize, as the yield can fall by up to 8% if it experiences water stress at the tasseling stage58. Therefore, seasonal distribution of precipitation during 38

the growing season of October to March is important for maize production.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

recorded at the three stations under consideration.

Table 3.2: Seasonal rainfall distribution Season

Vondo

Mandala

Siloam

Total* Precipitation

PCI

Characteristics

Total* Precipitation

PCI

Characteristics

Total* Precipitation

PCI

Characteristics

323.07

20

Concentrated

902.19

48

Strongly concentrated

1594.19

25

Strongly Concentrated

411.90

40

Strongly Concentrated

2055.56

96

Irregular

1239.54

20

Concentrated

124.10

31

Strongly concentrated

770.82

77

Irregular

516.54

18

Concentrated

223.78

35

Concentrated

580.24

73

Irregular

521.80

21

Strongly Concentrated

903.90

53

Irregular

1486.70

83

Irregular

781.00

34

Strongly concentrated

341.90

29

Strongly Concentrated

770.79

65

Irregular

372.70

23

Strongly Concentrated

221.50

45

Strongly Concentrated

1093.97

93

Irregular

1100.30

22

Strongly Concentrated

195.40

24

Strongly Concentrated

903.32

59

Irregular

554.30

26

Strongly Concentrated

216.30

42

Strongly concentrated

1178.08

88

Irregular

651.10

21

Strongly Concentrated

282.50

36

Strongly Concentrated

842.55

75

Irregular

692.20

22

Strongly Concentrated

1999/2000

2000/2001

2001/2002

2002/2003

2003/2004

2004/2005

2005/2006

2006/2007

2007/2008

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2008/2009

RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND CROP PRODUCTION

The PCI values in Table 3.2 show rainfall distribution in the seasons as

* This figure records precipitation recorded between October and March of the previous year and the following year, respectively.

PCI values show fluctuation from concentrated to irregular rainfall distribution. In the years 2002 and 2003 the entire valley received low precipitation in relation to the mean annual rainfall of the period. The PCIs for these years show that the seasons were strongly concentrated or irregular. Rainfall distribution depicts the different characteristics of the two halves of the seasons, from October to December and from January to March. However, no particular pattern is discernible in the whole period under review. This underlines the variability of the rainfall seasons in the valley.

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RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND MAIZE PRODUCTION Areas on the eastern portion of the Nzhelele valley (Mandala and Fondwe) often cultivate a larger proportion of land per year relative to other areas: an average of 69,341 ha and 61,12 ha per year, respectively. This can be attributable to generally more precipitation received in the areas compared to the western villages. Throughout the valley, the years 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2008 recorded the lowest precipitation and production figures. Such a relationship is not surprising as empirical evidence from elsewhere has revealed that high precipitation levels are often associated with a high acreage of area under cultivation and subsequently high crop production.59 Only year 2000 has an unusual relationship between rainfall totals, land use and production. The year experienced Cyclone Eline, which brought torrents of rain. Because of the flooding, crop production was severely affected. Thus, despite recording the highest rainfall figures during the period under review, 2000 had the worst maize production. In the period under review, an increase in the amount of rainfall translated into an increase in maize production. Results revealed a significantly positive relationship between annual rainfall and maize production (beta =0.626, r2=0.392, F=12.236, P0.05). Summary statistics are shown in Table

RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND CROP PRODUCTION

Specific differences in each locality are however discernible as discussed

3.2. Further analysis, however, reveals that this picture is distorted by three major outliers in 2002, 2003 and 2008. By constraining these, a much more objective picture reveals a strong negative correlation between annual precipitation and maize production (beta = -0.711; r2=0.506; F=5; P>0.05.).

Table 3.3: Fondwe rainfall variation and maize production relationship Non-standardized Coefficients Model

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1

B

Standardized Coefficients

Std. Error

(Constant)

53.224

9.593

Absolute rainfall variation (mm)

-.008

.006

t

Beta

-.442

Sig.

5.548

.001

-1.393

.201

a. Dependent Variable: Maize harvested (t)

MANDALA RAINFALL VARIATION AND MAIZE PRODUCTION This area received the highest mean precipitation of 1467.21. It would, therefore, be expected that production is also affected (Figure 3.3). The area produced a mean of 36.67 t of maize per annum. In the period under review, an increase in rainfall amount did not translate into an increase in crop production. Results revealed a significantly weak negative relationship between annual precipitation and maize production (beta = -0.28; r2=0.078; F=0.679; P>0.05). Summary statistics are

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shown in Figure 3.2. A further analysis reveals that this picture is distorted by three major outliers in 2002, 2003 and 2008. By constraining these, a much more objective picture (refer to figure 2b) reveals a significant strong negative correlation between annual precipitation and maize production (beta = -0.956; r2=0.915; F=53.733; P0.05). Summary statistics are shown in Table 3.4 above. A further analysis reveals that this picture is distorted by three major outliers in 2002, 2003 and 2008. By constraining these, a much more objective picture reveals a significant strong negative correlation between annual precipitation and maize production (beta = -0.95; r2=0.902; F=45.843, P0.05). Summary statistics are shown in Figure 3.3 below. A further analysis reveals that this picture is distorted by one major outlier in 2000. By constraining it, a much more objective picture reveals a positive association between annual precipitation and maize production (beta = 0.603; r2=0.364; F=4.003; P>0.05). This association is, however, statistically insignificant. Summary statistics are shown by Figure 3b. (a) R2 Linear = 0.915

50.00

Production

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40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00

.00

(b)

45.00

Maize produced in the season

60.00

40.00

R2 Linear = 0.364

35.00 30.00

25.00 20.00

15.00 .00

500.00 1000.00

1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00

Rainfall Variation

.-200.00

.00

200.00

400.00

Absolute rainfall variation

Figure 3.3: Rabali rainfall and maize production relationship

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TSHISWENDA RAINFALL VARIATION AND PRODUCTION Tshiswenda is located to the west of Nzhelele valley and is served by Siloam weather station. During the period under review the area produced about 23.1 t of maize per annum. In the period under review an increase in the amount of rainfall did not translate into an increase in maize production. Results revealed a weak negative association between annual rainfall and maize production (beta = -0.288, r2=0.083, F=0.724; P>0.05). Summary results are shown in Table 3.5 below. Further analysis shows that the picture is distorted by one major outlier in 2000. By constraining it, a much more objective picture reveals an insignificant positive relationship between annual rainfall and maize production (beta =0.556, r2=0.309, F=3.133; P>0.05).

Table 3.5: Tshiswenda rainfall –maize production relationship Unstandardized Coefficients Model

1

B

Standardized Coefficients

Std. Error

(Constant)

25.202

5.051

Absolute rainfall variation

-.006

.007

Beta

-.288

t

Sig.

4.990

.001

-.851

.419

a. Dependent Variable: Maize produced in the season

TSHITUNI RAINFALL VARIATION AND MAIZE PRODUCTION Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Tshituni produced an average of 26.14 t of maize per annum from 2000 to 2009. Changes in rainfall totals negatively impacted on maize production (Table 3.6).

Table 3.6: Tshituni rainfall variation and maize production relationship Unstandardized Coefficients

Model

B 1

44

Standardized Coefficients

Std. Error

(Constant)

32.299

6.693

Absolute rainfall variation (mm)

-.006

.006

t

Sig.

Beta

-.363

4.825

.001

-1.102

.303

Dependent Variable: Maize produced in the season (t)

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translate into an increase in maize production. Results revealed a significantly weak negative association between annual rainfall and maize production (beta = -0.363, r2=0.132, F=1.214; P>0.05). Table 3.5 shows summary results. Further analysis shows that the picture is distorted by one major outlier in 2000. By constraining it, a much more objective picture reveals a weak positive relationship between annual rainfall and maize production (beta =0.66, r2=0.435, F=5.4; P>0.05).

CONCLUSION It is important to note that farmers in the Nzhelele valley rely on rainfall for subsistence crop production. The above analysis revealed a positive relationship between rainfall variability and crop production. Exceptions

RAINFALL VARIABILITY AND CROP PRODUCTION

In the period under review an increase in the amount of rainfall did not

however, exist. In villages such as Fondwe, Tshavhalovhedzi-Mphaila and Mandala, an increase in annual rainfall resulted in lower maize production. This reveals that despite the global climate change issue taking centre stage in the global environmental change debate, the effects of climate change are very local. The above analysis suggests that rain-fed agriculture has been significantly affected by rainfall variability at a local level. This reinforces the observations by Buddenhargen60, IPCC161 and Allamano62 that climate change will result in negative impacts on agriculture. As a result, most farmers are finding it difficult to predict and plan with a higher probability of success because of climate change uncertainties. Such local effects call for the inclusion of local institutions and farmers in the formulation of adaptation strategies. This will enable the creation and adoption of location-specific adaptation strategies acceptable to and owned by local Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

institutions and farmers.

NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

Allamano, P., Claps, P., and Laio, F. 2010. Global Warming Increases Flood Risk in Mountain Areas. Geophysical Research Letters.

2

Tadross, M., Jack, C., and Hewitson, B. 2005. On RCM-based projections of change in southern African summer climate. Geophysical Research Letters. 32. L23713, doi 10.1029/2005GL024460.

3

Hewitson, B.C., and Crane, R.G. 2006. Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: Precipitation downscaling over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology. 26(10): 1315–1337.

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4

Australian Academy of Science. 2010. The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers. Canberra: Australian Academy of Science.

5

IPCC. 2007.

6

Downing, T.E. and Patwardhan, A., with Klein, R.J.T., Mukhala, E., Stephen, L., Winograd, M. and Ziervogel, G. 2005. Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation. In Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures. Lim, B., Spanger-Siegfried, E., Burton, I., Malone, E. and Huq, S. (Eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

7

Ziervogel, G., Bharwani, S., and Downing, T.E. 2006. Adapting to climate variability: Pumpkins, people and policy. Natural Resources Forum. 30: 294–305.

8

Agrawal, A., and Perrin, N. 2008. Climate Adaptation, Local Institutions, and Rural Livelihoods. IFRI Working Paper # W08I-6. USA: University of Michigan.

9

Cooper, P.J.M., Dimes, J., Rao, K.P.C., Shapiro, B., Shiferaw, B., and Twomlow, S. 2008. Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of Sub-Saharan Africa: An essential first step in adapting to future climate change? Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 126:24-35.

10 Droogers P., Seckler D. and Makin I. 2001. Estimating the potential of rain-fed agriculture. Working paper 20. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 11 Nnyaladzi, B.N., 2009. Rainfall trends in semi-arid Botswana: Implications for climate adaptation policy. Applied Geography. 30: 483-489. 12 Müller, C., Cramer, W., Hare, W. L. and Lotze-Campen, H. 2011. 13 Parry, M., Evans, A., Rosegrant, M. W. and Wheeler T. 2009. Climate Change and Hunger: Responding to the Challenge. Italy: World Food Programme. 14 Woldeamlak, B. 2009. 15 IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. PCC Plenary XXVII: Valencia, Spain. 16 Rugumayo, A. I., Kiiza, N., and Shima, J. 2003. Rainfall reliability for crop production. A case study in Uganda. Diffuse Pollution Conference Dublin. 17 Buddenhagen, I.W., Gibson, R.W., and Sweetmore, A. 1992. Better cultivars for resource poor farmers. In Proceedings of the seminar on crop protection for resource poor farmers. UK: The Netherlands and NRI.

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18 IPCC. 2007. 19 Müller, C., Cramer, W., Hare, W. L. and Lotze-Campen, H. 2011. Climate change risks for African agriculture. PNAS. 108 (11):4313–4315. 20 Rugumayo, A. I., Kiiza, N. and Shima, J. 2003. Rainfall reliability for crop production. A case study in Uganda. Diffuse Pollution Conference Dublin. 21 Mulat, D., Fantu, G., and Tadele, F. 2004. Agricultural development in Ethiopia: are there alternatives to food aid? Unpublished research report. 22 Blignaut, J., Ueckermann, L., and Aronson, J. 2009. Agriculture production’s sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa. South African Journal of Science. 105:61-73. 23 Bewket, W. 2009. Rainfall variability and crop production in Ethiopia. Case study in the Amhara region. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies. S. Ege, H, Aspen, B. Teferra and S. V. Troundheim (eds). 24 Wood, A. 1977. A preliminary chronology of Ethiopian droughts. In Drought in Africa. 2. Dalby, D., Church, R.J.H. and Bezzaz, F. (eds.). London: International African Institute.

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26 Kiker, G.A. 2000. Synthesis report for the vulnerability and adaptation assessment section: South African Country Study on Climate Change. Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. 27 Durand, W. 2006. Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. South Africa: ARC-Grain Crops Institute. 28 Ketema, T. 1999. Test of homogeneity, frequency analysis of rainfall data and estimate of drought probabilities in Dire Dawa, eastern Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of Natural Resources. 1: 125-136. 29 Blignaut, J., Ueckermann, L. and Aronson, J. 2009. Agriculture production’s sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa. South African Journal of Science. 105:61-73. 30 Desalegn, R. 1991. Famine and survival strategies: a case study from northeast Ethiopia. Nordiska Afrikainstitutet, Uppsala. 31 de Waal. 1994. Rethinking Ethiopia. In The Horn of Africa. Gurdon, C .(ed.). London: UCL Press.

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25 Pankhurst, R., Johnson, D.H. 1988. The great drought and famine of 1888-92 in northeast Africa. In The ecology of survival: case studies from northeast African history. Johnson, D.H., and Anderson, D.M. (eds.). London: Lester Crook Academic Publishing.

32 Veldkamp, A. and Lambin, E.F. 2005. Predicting Land-Use Change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 85:1-6. 33 Droogers P., Seckler D. and Makin, I. 2001. Estimating the potential of rain-fed agriculture. Working paper 20. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 34 Durand, W. 2006. Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. South Africa: ARC-Grain Crops Institute. 35 National Yield Prediction Committee. 1997. Minutes of the National Yield Prediction Committee 20/03/1997, Directorate Agricultural Statistics, National Department of Agriculture Abstract of Agricultural Statistics (AAS), 2004. National Department of Agriculture, Pretoria. 36 Schulze, R.E., Kiker, G.A., and Kunz, R.P. 1993. Global climate change and agricultural productivity in southern Africa. Global Environmental Change. 3 (4):330–349.

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37 Durand, W. 2006. Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. South Africa: ARC-Grain Crops Institute. 38 Irrigation Water Management: Irrigation water needs. http://www.fao.org/docrep/ S2022E/S2022E00.htm (accessed 28 October 2011). 39 Durand, W. 2006. Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. South Africa: ARC-Grain Crops Institute. 40 Blignaut, J., Ueckermann, L. and Aronson, J. 2009. Agriculture production’s sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa. South African Journal of Science. 105:61-73. 41 Durand, W. 2006. Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. South Africa: ARC-Grain Crops Institute. 42 Ziervogel, G., Bharwani, S. and Downing, T.E. 2006. 43 Blignaut, J., Ueckermann, L. and Aronson, J. 2009. Agriculture production’s sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa. South African Journal of Science. 105:61-73. 44 Ibid. 45 Nnyaladzi, B.N. 2009. Rainfall trends in semi-arid Botswana: Implications for climate adaptation policy. Applied Geography. 30: 483-489.

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46 Meinke, H., DeVoil, P., Hammer, G.L., Power, S. and Allan, R. (2004). Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise? Journal Of Climate. 18:89–96. 47 Blignaut, J., Ueckermann, L. and Aronson, J. 2009. Agriculture production’s sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa. South African Journal of Science. 105:61-73. 48 Droogers P., Seckler D. and Makin, I. 2001. Estimating the potential of rain-fed agriculture. Working paper 20. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 49 FAO. 1986. 50 Durand, W. 2006. Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. South Africa: ARC-Grain Crops Institute. 51 Department of Agriculture. 2010. Personal interview 52 Oliver, J.E. 1980. Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. Professional Geographer. 32: 300–309. 53 De Luis, M., Gonz´alez-Hidalgo, J.C., Brunetti, M. and Longares, L.A. 2011. Precipitation concentration changes in Spain 1946–2005. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 11: 1259–1265 54 Bewket, W. 2009. Rainfall variability and crop production in Ethiopia. Case study in the Amhara region. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies. Ege, S., Aspen, H., Teferra B. and Troundheim S.V. (eds). 55 Oliver, J.E. 1980. Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index. Professional Geographer. 32: 300–309. 56 Bewket, W. 2009. Rainfall variability and crop production in Ethiopia. Case study in the Amhara region. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies. Ege, S., Aspen, H., Teferra B. and Troundheim S.V. (eds). 57 IPCC. 2007. 58 Durand, W., 2006. Assessing the impact of climate change on crop water use in South Africa. South Africa: ARC-Grain Crops Institute. 59 FAO. 2010. Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to Zimbabwe. Rome : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 60 Buddenhagen, I.W., Gibson, R.W. and Sweetmore, A. 1992. Better cultivars for resource poor farmers. In Proceedings of the seminar on crop protection for resource poor farmers. UK: The Netherlands and NRI.

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61 IPCC. 2007. 62 Allamano, P., Claps, P. and Laio, F. 2010. Global Warming Increases Flood Risk in Mountain Areas. Geophysical Research Letters.

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Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Evidence from rural Nigeria Justice Akpene Tambo

CHAPTER 4

Maize Innovation for climate change adaptation

INTRODUCTION

T

here is general consensus that the climate is changing, and it poses serious challenges to food security and livelihoods in many developing countries. Countries whose economies are highly dependent on

climate-sensitive sectors, like agriculture, fisheries and forestry, are ex-

pected to be hardest hit by the adverse impacts of climate change.1, 2 Nigeria is particularly vulnerable because the majority of its population (about 70%) engage in agriculture as their primary occupation and agriculture in the country is mainly rain-fed. Also, the country has a long (800 km) coastline that is prone to sea-level rise and almost two-thirds of the country’s land cover is prone to drought and desertification.3 Studies have shown that Nigeria’s climatic conditions have changed in the past decades,4,5 and this is expected to be severe in the coming years.6 Climate change is adversely affecting food production in the country and many farmers are losing their Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

source of livelihood. Without an appropriate response, climate change is likely to constrain economic development and poverty reduction efforts in the country. In response to the threat of climate change, there has been increased attention to adaptation as large reductions in adverse impacts of climate change are possible when adaptation is fully implemented.7,8 Adaptation to climate change refers to “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”.9 Various adaptation options in agriculture have been suggested; these include: (i) farm production adjustments, such as crop diversification and altering the timing of operations; (b) market responses, such as income diversification and credit schemes; (c) institutional/ government responses, such as improvement in agricultural markets; and (d) technological developments, such as the

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development and promotion of new crop varieties and soil and water management techniques.10,11 Technological innovation has been found to be a viable and important adaptation option to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change and therefore it needs to be promoted.12,13,14 In view of this, many researchers are developing agricultural innovations, such as new crop varieties, that can tolerate climate-related shocks. Farmers are expected to adopt these innovations to be able to adapt to changes in climate. This chapter aims to analyse the adoption of one such innovation, the drought tolerant maize (DTM) innovation by smallholder farmers. Specifically, the chapter seeks to identify factors that influence adoption of the DTM innovation, farmers’ reasons for preferring the innovation and the constraints to adoption. The study was carried out in Borno State, a drought-prone area in Nigeria. It is one of the regions where DTM innovation is being promoted. The chapter proceeds as follows. The next section provides a brief overview of maize production in Nigeria, with an emphasis on DTM innovation. Section 3 describes the study area and methods of data collection as well as the analytical approaches. The results and discussion are presented in section 4 and section 5 concludes the chapter.

DTM INNOVATION IN NIGERIA Maize is an important cereal crop produced throughout the world; it has become one of the dominant crops in Africa because it can be cultivated in a wide range of agro-ecological environments and has many uses. In Nigeria, maize is an important crop that is consumed as a staple food by many households and there is growing utilisation by industries for the production Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

of flour, livestock feed, processed food and beverages and malt for brewing beer.15 Its production also serves as a source of income and employment for many rural households. The high demand for maize for households and industries requires increased production to satisfy the demand. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data, the land area planted to maize in Nigeria increased from 1.4 million hectares in 1961 to 3.3 million hectares in 2010. This phenomenal expansion of the land area devoted to maize cultivation resulted in increased production from 1.1 million metric tonnes in 1961 to 7.3 million metric tonnes in 2010,16 making Nigeria the second largest producer of maize in Africa after South Africa. Most of the maize in the country is produced in the rain forest zone, but there has been an increase in production in the savannas, especially the Northern Guinea Savanna (NGS). Most of these areas were initially cultivating maize 50

as a backyard crop, but it is now one of the most important food crops and

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

dishes.17 Despite the importance of maize in the country, its production is beset by several constraints. One of these is drought, which is a major cause of loss in maize yield in the country and inmany parts of the world. Drought stress greatly reduces yield of maize, by affecting the plant at three critical stages of growth: early in the growing season (when plant stands are established), at flowering, and during mid to late grain filling.18 It has been estimated that annually, drought reduces global maize yields by as much as 15 percent; this amounts to crop losses of more than 20 million tonnes of grain.19 Unfortunately, rapid changes in climate are expected to worsen this situation. Studies show that: the growing conditions in most African countries are getting hotter and dryer and many varieties of maize now under cultivation will no longer be viable in the very near future; and failure to transit to drought tolerant maize20 (DTM) will lead to reduction in yield.21,22

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

is being substituted for traditional crops like millet and sorghum in local

As part of a concerted effort to curb these losses, scientists from two consultative groups on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centres; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) have been working with national partners in Sub-Sahara African to develop drought tolerant varieties. Several varieties have resulted from this initiative and there are about one million hectares of land planted with these varieties.23 Many development-oriented institutions are also supporting the dissemination of this innovation to farmers. For instance, IITA and national partners from Borno State in Nigeria received funding from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to conduct the project Promoting Sustainable Agriculture in Borno State (PROSAB) from 2004 to 2009; the goal was contributing to improved rural household livelihoods in the project areas of the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

state. This project identified drought as a major constraint to maize production in the area, hence, developed and disseminated DTM to farmers. Also, with support from Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Howard G. Buffet Foundation, CIMMYT and IITA established the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project in 2006, with the aim of making drought tolerant maize easily available to millions of smallholder growers in 13 Sub-Saharan African countries where droughts are expected to become common and more severe. A recent study by La Rovere et al.24 on the potential impacts of DTM in Africa indicates that it can bring a cumulative economic benefit of about US$ 0.9 billion to farmers and consumers in project countries during 2007 to 2017, assuming a high rate of adoption. There are, therefore, increasing efforts to promote the DTM innovation, but to be able to do this successfully, understanding of determinants of its adoption is required.

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At the time of the survey, six different DTM varieties were being promoted in the study region. These were EV DT 99 STR, 99 TZEE-Y STR, 99 TZEE-W STR, TZE Comp 3DT W, TZE Comp 5 W and 2000 Syn EE-W. The dominant varieties were TZE Comp 3DT W and EV DT 99 STR. These two varieties had the advantage of being tolerant to drought conditions and early maturing. They also had higher yield potentials because they mature later than the extra-early varieties and are, therefore, able to accumulate more dry matter and partition more biomass to the grain.25 Other maize varieties in the study region were hybrid (e.g. Oba Super 1, Oba Super and New Kaduna) and recycled improved varieties (Pool 16, Suwan 1 and TZB-SR). The hybrid seeds were produced and marketed by private seed companies in Nigeria, mainly Premier Seed Limited. The available hybrid varieties in the study area had high yield and disease resistance qualities, but were not drought tolerant. The recycled varieties were very late maturing (4-5 months to maturity), grew very tall and had low tolerance to climatic stress.

CASE STUDY OF BORNO STATE: NORTH-EAST NIGERIA The study was conducted in Borno State of north-east Nigeria. The state is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZs): the NGS and Southern Guinea Savanna (SGS) in the south, the Sudan Savanna (SS) in the southern and central parts of the state, and the Sahel in the north. The larger part of the state lies in the Sahelian zone. Annual precipitation ranges from less than 600 mm in the north to 1500 mm in the south. Rainfall, however, varies from year to year, but has tended to decrease over the last two decades. Borno State was chosen for this study because of the high incidence of drought and the promotion of DTM in different AEZs within the state. Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Within Borno State, the study was conducted in the Biu and Gwoza Local Government Areas (LGAs), which are located in the NGS and SS AEZs, respectively. NGS has an average annual rainfall of about 900–1200 mm, while that of SS is low – about 700 mm – with a prolonged dry season of about 6–9 months. Rainfall has a unimodal distribution in both agroecologies. The inhabitants depend mainly on agriculture for their livelihoods. Apart from maize, the major crops cultivated in the region include sorghum, cowpea, soybean, groundnut and rice. Some of the farmers are involved in dry season vegetable farming from November to April.

52

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Figure 4.1: Map showing the location of the selected communities within the study area

Source: IITA GIS-unit, Ibadan, Nigeria

Data were collected from April to August 2010. The sample consists of 200 farm households with 100 selected from each AEZ using a multi-stage sampling technique so as to obtain a sample that is representative of maize Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

producing households in the study area. At the first stage, two LGAs where DTM were being promoted were selected. These are Gwoza and Biu, located in the SS and NGS AEZs, respectively. Then four communities were selected from each of the two AEZs, based on the importance of maize cultivation. The communities are Lokodisa, Yamtake, Bita and Gava West in SS, and Miringa, Maina Hari Sabon Layi and Nzukuku in NGS, as shown in Figure 4.1. In the last stage, households that cultivate maize were randomly selected for interviewing using a structured questionnaire. Information obtained with the questionnaire includes: household socio-economic characteristics, type of farm and non-farm activities, DTM production activities, access to extension services and credit facilities, participation in associations and on-farm demonstrations, perception of the characteristics of DTM and constraints in the production and adoption of DTM. Data obtained were based on the 2009/2010 cropping season.

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ANALYTICAL APPROACHES APPLIED IN THE CASE STUDY In determining farmers’ perceptions of the benefits of DTM, households were asked to indicate, in order of importance, three main reasons for preferring DTM varieties. The reasons were ranked by assigning weights. The most important response was assigned 5 points, the second most important 3 points and the third most important 1 point. The total rank score for each reason mentioned by the farmers was then calculated by summing up the number of households that mentioned a particular reason multiplied by the rank score assigned – as shown in equation 1.

TSi

3

¦ F J ...........(1) i 1

ij

Where TSi = the total score for the ith reason J = rank score (5= most important, 3= important, 1= less important) Fij = Frequency of the ith reason mentioned with a rank score j. The reason with the highest total score was assigned the highest rank and so on. The logit model was used to analyse factors influencing farmers’ decisions to adopt a DTM variety. Following Gujarati,26 the model is specified as:

§ P · 1n ¨ i ¸ =E 0  E1 X 1  E 2 X 2  ........  E n X n ..............(2) © 1 - Pi ¹ Where Pi is the probability that the ith farmer will adopt a DTM and 1- Pi is the probability of non-adoption of DTM by the ith farmer. The probability

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

that a farmer will adopt DTM is a function of the vector of explanatory variables X1 to Xn with the unknown parameters ȕ 0 to ȕn. The coefficients estimated from a logit model will not measure marginal effects of the explanatory variables, but only show if any of the variables have a significant influence on the adoption of DTM. Marginal analysis was, therefore, carried out to obtain the effects of the explanatory variables on the probability of adopting DTM. Following Maddala,27 the marginal effect was estimated as follows:

wPi wX ik

e E0 + E1 X1i +........+ Eni



1 + e E0 + E1 X1i +........+ Eni



2

Bk ...........(3)

Where Bk are the estimated coefficients 54

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

variety during the 2009/2010 cropping season, and 0 otherwise. The explanatory variables (X1 to Xn) hypothesised to influence the DTM adoption decision were obtained from literature. The literature on agricultural innovation adoption has shown that the adoption decision depends on a number of factors. The factors that are usually considered include the following: (i) Farmer characteristics, such as farm size, age, wealth, education and tenure. (ii) Institutional factors, such as access to extension, credit, market and information. (iii) Technological characteristics, e.g. yield, storability, availability and cost. (iv) Farmer’s perception of the technology. (v) Risk and uncertainty. (vi) Biophysical characteristics, e.g. farm size, soil type and slope.28,29,30,31 The factors selected for a particular study depend mainly on the purpose of the study32 and the underlying agricultural technology adoption theory.33 The present study focuses on three main categories of adoption determinants: household and

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

The dependent variable was defined as: 1= the use of at least one DTM

farm characteristics, institutional factors, and farmer’s perception of the technology. The household and farm characteristics that are expected to influence adoption of the DTM include: farming experience, education level of head of household, and farm size. Regarding institutional factors, access to extension services and credit, distance to market and membership of farming association, are considered. Farmer’s perception of yield, pest and disease resistance and availability of DTM seed fall under the perception category. Two other factors that are climate-related are also considered. These are the agro-ecological zone (to account for spatial heterogeneity) and farmer’s awareness of climate change.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS BASED ON A SURVEY IN BORNO STATE Table 4.1 and 4.2 present some descriptive statistics of the sampled households. The age of the household heads ranged from 18 to 80 with an average age of 38 years. On average, household size comprised about 10 people, but only four people worked on the farm. Most households supplemented family labour with hired labour. The population was almost entirely Muslim, with very few women involved in farming and at the same time served as household heads; hence, only one female-headed household took part in the survey. The illiteracy level was found to be very high with about 52 per cent of household heads having no formal education. There were more educated people in Biu LGA (NGS) than Gwoza LGA (SS). Most respondents had only attended Quranic school and primary school, with very few reaching the tertiary level. Few households depended solely on farming for their livelihood. Most of them were involved in non-farming business activities,

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especially during the dry season. The non-farm activities were mainly selfemployed activities, such as trading in agricultural and non-agricultural products, masonry, carpentry, handicrafts, tailoring and blacksmithing. Very few civil servants were encountered. The majority of the youth are engaged in the transport business, using motorcycles (locally known as achaba). Most of the households owned livestock and poultry. The main types of livestock were cattle and goats. The size of land cultivated was very small, with an average 3 hectares (ha) per household, with 90 per cent of respondents cultivating less than 5ha. The smallholding is a result of most farmers obtaining land through inheritance, which results in fragmentation. The rest of the farmers obtained their farm land mainly by purchasing or hiring. Larger farm sizes were observed in SS than NGS.

Table 4.1: Summary statistics of continuous variables

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

  Variables

Total (n=200)

SS (n=100)

NGS (n=100)

Mean

Mean

Mean

SD*

SD

SD

Age

38.18

10.73

38.11

9.48

38.25

11.9

Education

4.77

5.6

4.32

5.39

5.21

5.79

Farming experience

18.9

10.16

20.03

9.31

17.77

10.88

Household size

9.58

5.61

10.2

5.68

8.96

5.51

Family labour

3.57

3.05

4.37

3.15

2.77

2.74

Distance to market (km)

19.12

12.21

26.27

12.25

11.97

6.81

Farm size

2.95

7.45

4.21

10.29

1.69

1.54

Frequency of extension contact

3.55

5.78

4.36

4.68

2.74

6.63

Off-farm income in 2009 (Naira34)

60780

97367

64940

111174

56620

81621

*SD=standard deviation

Table 4.2: Summary statistics of discrete variables Total (n=200)

SS (n=100)

NGS (n=100)

% of farmers

% of farmers

% of farmers

Adoption of DTM

58

59

56

Use of hired labour

79

80

78

65.5

61

70

Ownership of livestock

86

84

88

Received remittances

13.5

7

20

  Variables

Off-farm income

56

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

56.5

62

51

Access to credit for farming

13

12

14

Awareness of climate change

50.5

46

55

DTM yield potential

75.5

78

73

28

18

38

54.5

45

64

DTM seed availability DTM resistance to pests and disease

Only about 57 per cent of the surveyed households had access to extension services. The extension officers visited households on average about four times in 2009. There were more extension contacts in SS than in NGS; this can be attributed to the ongoing DTMA project, which uses extension officers for training farmers and disseminating information. Very few farmers

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Access to extension services

(13 per cent) obtained credit for farming. This was attributed to the unavailability of credit providers in the area, high interest rates, lack of collateral and difficulty in accessing loans due to a lack of education. A few farmers, however, indicated religious reasons for not obtaining a loan, as their Islamic religion frowns on obtaining loans that require interest payments. Most loans were obtained from relatives and friends, with very few farmers obtaining it in the form of seeds and fertilizers from ongoing projects in the area. Forty-two percent of the farmers were members of Community Based Organizations (CBOs) or associations in the study area, but only a few of them were very active members of these associations. The majority of farmers (75.5 per cent) considered DTM varieties to be better than other available maize varieties, while only 28 per cent considered DTM seeds to be easily accessible. About half of the respondents were aware of climate Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

change. About 58 per cent of the sampled households have adopted DTM varieties. The non-adopters used either hybrid, recycled hybrid or recycled improved varieties. Out of the 115 farmers that adopted DTM, only 25 per cent were partial adopters. This suggests that conditional on adoption, most farmers are likely to grow mainly DTM varieties. The reasons for partial adoption include shortage of seeds, inability to afford complementary inputs, risk aversion and interest in keeping traditional varieties from going extinct in the near future. There were more adopters of DTM in SS (59 per cent) than in NGS (56 per cent); this can be attributed to the significance of drought in the former AEZ. Compared to NGS, SS is more drought-prone and experiences lower annual rainfall, hence, farmers in this zone are more in need of early maturing and drought tolerant varieties.

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Some of the data used for this study captured farmers’ perceptions of climate change and their adaptation practices. The results show that nearly all farmers interviewed (99 per cent) have noticed at least a change in long term temperature or rainfall in the area. A large portion of them (92 per cent) perceived changes in temperature over the past 20 years. Over three-quarters of farmers surveyed have noticed an increase in temperature. Very few farmers indicated a decrease in temperature (8 per cent) and no changes in temperature (6.5 per cent). Furthermore, about 60 per cent noticed both a decrease in rainfall and changes in the timing of the rains. About 24 per cent have noticed a decrease in the volume of rainfall or a shorter rainy season, while 12 per cent have observed high inter-and intraannual variability. Overall, the farmers noticed a drier and hotter climate. Farmers’ adaptation practices can be categorized into: diversification of crops and crop varieties; changing the time of planting/sowing; irrigation; tree planting; soil and water conservation practices; and off-farm income diversification. Predominant adaptation methods involved the use of drought tolerant or early maturing varieties (52 per cent) and a shift in dates of planting (47 per cent). Lack of information on climate change and suitable adaptation measures and a lack of credit were the main barriers to adaptation. A more detailed discussion of the farmers’ perceptions and adaptation measures can be found in Tambo and Abdoulaye.35

ADOPTERS’ PERCEPTION OF THE BENEFITS OF DTM The DTM varieties are not only drought tolerant or early maturing but have other important attributes. Adopters of DTM were asked to indicate and Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

rank three main reasons for a preference for DTM varieties. Their responses were weighted and the results are presented in Table 4.3. The ranking indicates that the three most important traits farmers preferred about the DTM varieties were early maturing, drought tolerance and high yielding. The choice of early maturing and drought tolerance as first and second traits respectively indicate that farmers are concerned about the risk of climate failure, which is a major constraint of farming in the study region. Results from past adoption studies revealed that farmers often desire high yielding varieties with very low consideration for drought resistance when selecting maize seeds for planting.36,37 This result, therefore, indicates that in an environment where drought is a problem, farmers will adopt DTM not only because it is high yielding but, more importantly, because of its potential to adapt to drought conditions. 58

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

showed that most farmers in Kano, a Nigerian state with low annual rainfall, consider early crop maturity rather than high yielding traits when selecting maize seeds for planting. Other DTM varietal attributes important for farmers were: better taste when used in preparing food or when boiled; and high flour content. Farmers confirmed that compared to other maize varieties, more flour is obtained from DTM after milling. Other DTM traits include: resistance to lodging because of its short height; good grain size; resistance to pests and diseases; and able to be stored longer and resist weevil attack because of hard seed coats.

Table 4.3: Adopters’ perception of the benefits of DTM (n=115) 1

 

2

 

3

 

Total

Overall

Freq*

Score

Freq

Score

Freq

Score

score

rank

Early maturing

46

230

33

99

17

17

346

1

Drought tolerance

30

150

14

42

20

20

212

2

High yielding

19

95

26

78

23

23

196

3

Better food taste

6

30

11

33

19

19

82

4

More flour

9

45

5

15

7

7

67

5

Less lodging

4

20

8

24

12

12

56

6

Large cob and grain size

5

25

7

21

8

8

54

7

Pest and disease resistance

0

0

7

21

0

0

21

8

Good storability

1

5

1

3

2

2

10

9

Grain colour

1

5

0

0

2

2

7

10

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

 Characteristics

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

This result also corroborates the findings of Kamara et al.,38 which

* Frequency (Number of farmers)

DETERMINANTS OF DTM ADOPTION Table 4.4 below presents the result for the determinants of DTM adoption. The likelihood ratio, as indicated by chi-square value of 107.19, is highly significant ( =0.0000), suggesting that the model has strong explanatory power. Eight out of the 13 explanatory variables included in the model are statistically significant. Off-farm income, distance to market, extension contact, awareness of climate change, AEZ and perceptions of yield potential, seed availability and pest and disease resistance are the determining factors influencing the probability of adopting DTM in the study area.

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The result shows that farmers’ perception about DTM and climate change related variables are the main factors that influence adoption of the innovation. The farmers’ socio-economic characteristics have little influence on adoption, with off-farm income the only significant variable. The coefficient of off-farm income is positive and statistically significant at 1 per cent, which indicates that households with higher off-farm income are more likely to adopt DTM. This result is consistent with the argument that off-farm income influences the adoption of new agricultural technologies.39 Households with off-farm income can afford to purchase seeds and other inputs associated with DTM production. This result suggests that expanding farmers’ access to off-farm sources of income in the study area will increase the probability that they will invest in the cultivation of DTM.

Table 4.4: Determinants of DTM adoption Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

Marginal effect

Education (years)

-0.010

0.023

-0.004

Farming experience (years)

-0.007

0.012

-0.003

0.005***

0.002

0.002

-0.002

0.017

-0.001

-0.037***

0.014

-0.014

Extension contacts (times per year)

0.064*

0.037

0.024

Credit (dummy)

0.141

0.398

0.051

Membership of association (dummy)

0.125

0.251

0.047

1.340***

0.326

0.497

Seed availability (dummy)

0.575*

0.306

0.201

Pest and disease resistance (dummy)

0.563**

0.264

0.209

Awareness of climate change (dummy)

0.849***

0.237

0.309

Agro-ecological zone (dummy, 1=SS)

0.871**

0.357

0.316

-1.650***

0.420

Off-farm income (Naira) Farm size (hectares) Distance to closest market (km)

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Yield potential (dummy)

Constant Log likelihood = -82.776528 LR chi2(13)

=

107.19

Prob > chi2

=

0.0000

Pseudo R2

=

0.3930

n=200

 

 

 

*, ** and *** refer to statistically significant at 10%, 5% & 1%, respectively 60

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

to market and extension contacts significantly influence DTM adoption. Distance to market has a negative effect on adoption, which indicates that the further the distance to market, the less likely the adoption of DTM. Some farmers obtained their seeds from markets and all farmers purchased farm inputs from markets that were not located in their dwelling villages. Some farmers even learnt about DTM through agro-dealers in the markets. The roads linking the two main markets (Biu and Gwoza) in the study area and the sampled communities were very poor and hindered easy movement and accessibility to technologies by farmers. Farmers who stay close to the markets are more likely to adopt DTM due to the proximity to information, seed sources and other farm inputs. This suggests the need to increase efforts in supplying seeds and inputs close to the vicinity of the farmers. Extension contact, which is very important for technology dissemination, positively influences the adoption of DTM. Extension agents have been

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Out of the four institutional factors included in the model, distance

the main source of information on new technologies in the study area and the two projects use them for the promotion of DTM. Cultivation and seed production of DTM requires knowledge on management techniques and the extension officers are mainly involved in delivering these services to the farmers. Therefore, farmers who have frequent contact with the extension agents will learn about the innovation and its potential benefits; hence, they are more likely to become adopters. All three factors related to farmers’ perception of technological attributes (yield potential, pest and disease resistance, and seed availability) are significant at 1 per cent, 5 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. All these attributes are positively related to adoption decisions. Farmers who perceive that DTM has a greater yield potential are more likely to adopt DTM than those who do not. This confirms the earlier result in section 4.2 that Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

the yield of DTM is also very important to farmers, apart from its ability to tolerate drought. Knowledge of good seed source is very important for DTM adoption, especially for farmers outside the project villages, as they complained of difficulties in getting seed for sowing. Seed availability has a positive effect on adoption, which indicates that there is an increased probability of DTM adoption if farmers can easily get seed in their localities. Farmers who perceive that DTM is more resistant to pests and diseases than other available varieties are also more likely to adopt the innovation. Farmers who have heard or read about climate change are more likely to adopt DTM than those who have not, and this result is highly significant. With increased incidence of changing climate, farmers are being educated on possible adaptation options. This result is interesting as it shows that the education of farmers on climate change adaptation is having a positive

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impact. This result concurs with the findings of Deressa et al.,40 who argued that farmers’ awareness of climate change through information dissemination influences the uptake of adaptation options, such as use of different crop varieties. Nhemachena and Hassan41 also asserted that farmers who are aware of the changing climate have a higher probability of uptake of adaptation measures. AEZ has a significant and positive effect on DTM adoption, implying that farmers in SS are more likely to adopt DTM than those in NGS – this can be partly attributed to climatic differences between the two AEZs. This result is consistent with previous findings that AEZ is very important and should be considered in the promotion of improved maize technologies.42 The marginal effects explain the percent changes in the probability of adoption of DTM in response to changes from zero to one for the dummy variables and elasticities at the means for the continuous variables. Yield potential has the highest marginal effect of 0.497, suggesting that if farmers perceive that DTM is superior to other maize varieties in terms of yield, adoption will increase by about 50 per cent in the study area. A 1km increase in distance from house to market will lead to a 0.014 per cent decrease in adoption; while a 10 per cent increase in the number of extension contacts will enhance the probability of adopting DTM in the study area by 2.4 per cent. Households that perceive that DTM is easily available and superior to other maize varieties in terms of pest and disease resistance are about 20 per cent and 21 per cent likely to adopt DTM, respectively. Farmers who have read or listened to discussions on climate change are about 31 per cent likely to adopt DTM; those located in SS AEZ are 32 per cent more

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

likely to adopt DTM relative to those in NGS.

CONSTRAINTS TO ADOPTION OF DTM Eighty-five of the sampled farmers were not using DTM varieties. Consequently, they were asked to provide reasons for non-adoption and their responses are summarised in Figure 4.2. The main reason for nonadoption of DTM is lack of access to seed, which was stressed by 43 per cent of the non-adopters. This is not surprising, as access to seed has been identified as one of the main constraints to maize production in Nigeria and other African countries.43 This further supports the econometric result that shows that perceived availability of seed is an important determinant of DTM adoption. Contraints in accessing fertilizer is also a major reason limiting DTM adoption. Farmers acknowledged that fertilizer is needed to achieve optimal yields, but there is low utilisation due to lack of access and 62

financial constraints. There are fertiliser subsidies for farmers in Nigeria,

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

ficiency, unfair distribution and diversion from targeted beneficiaries. The high price of retailed fertilisers is also beyond the reach of farmers, as most of them are poor. About 19 per cent of non-adopters were not aware of the existence of DTM, and this can partly be attributed to the poor extension system in the study region and Nigeria as a whole. Access to extension services is critical in transmission of agricultural information and provision of advisory services to farmers, but with dwindling funding for extension work in Nigeria, all these services are hardly provided. The econometric result in section 4.3 also confirms the importance of extension services in DTM adoption. Some farmers also indicated high cost of DTM seed and high labour requirements relative to other maize varieties as reasons for non-adoption. About 14 per cent of non-adopters were happy with the current maize varieties they cultivate and were reluctant to shift to DTM varieties.

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

but these are characterised by constant problems with late delivery, insuf-

Figure 4.3 shows the problems faced by the 115 adopters in the use of the innovation, which might lead to disadoption or limit the extent of adoption. The major constraint reported by 68 per cent of adopters is fertilizer accessibility. Difficulties in seed accessibility, high cost of seed as well as high labour and management practice requirements are other constraints faced by adopters of the innovation. Almost 29 per cent of adopters reported, however, that they do not experience problems with the cultivation of DTM.

Reluctance to change Lack of access to seed High labour requirements Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Fertilizer access constraints High seed cost Lack of awareness 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

% of non-adopters

Figure 4.2: Reasons for non-adoption of DTM (n=85) (Multiple responses recorded)

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No limitations High seed cost Lack of access to seed High labour requirements Fertilizer access constraints 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

% of adopters

Figure 4.3: Constraints faced by adopters of DTM (n=115) (Multiple responses recorded)

CONCLUSION This chapter analyses the adoption of DTM innovation, which is being promoted in north-east Nigeria to help maize farmers adapt to climate change. The chapter shows the perceived benefits, determinants and constraints of adoption of the innovation by rural smallholder farmers. The results indicate that out of the 200 households sampled, only 58 per cent have adopted the innovation, despite the increasing promotional efforts and the many benefits of the DTM innovation. Also, adverse climatic conditions are very important in the adoption of DTM, with farmers indicating early maturity, drought tolerance and high yield as the main benefits of the DTM innovation. Analysis of the determinants of DTM adoption indicates that farmers’ perception about DTM and climate change related variables are the main factors that influence likelihood of adopting the innovation. Perception of Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

DTM superiority to other maize varieties in terms of yield and resistance to pests and diseases are likely to influence adoption of the innovation. The perception of easy availability of seed also influences the decision to adopt DTM. Farmers staying closer to markets are more likely to be adopters because of easy access to the innovation. The income from off-farm employment, which assists farmers to purchase seeds and complementary inputs, also influences DTM adoption positively. Farmers who are aware of climate change, as well as those located in drier agro-ecological regions, are more likely to adopt DTM innovation. Also, frequent visits to farmers by agricultural extension agents’ will increase the likelihood of adopting the innovation. The main reasons for non-adoption and the problems of adopters of DTM include fertilizer accessibility and lack of access to seed. Other constraints to DTM adoption are reluctance to change from existing 64

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

innovation. The findings of this chapter suggest that in the context of the changing climate, the DTM innovation is important for maize farmers, but there is a need for more dissemination efforts for the innovation to reach many more farmers in the study region. For instance, involving more extension officers in the provision of technical support to farmers will promote adoption of the innovation. Addressing seed access constraints, by providing seeds close to farmers through agro-dealers, will also enhance adoption. Improvement in off-farm income earning opportunities and provision of credit facilities to farmers will assist in purchasing seeds and the needed complementary inputs required for DTM production. Finally, although the study is specific to north-east Nigeria, the findings provide insights into policies and institutional interventions necessary to promote the development and dissemination of agricultural innovation in smallholder farming systems where

INNOVATION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

varieties, high seed cost and lack of awareness of the existence of the DTM

household livelihoods are challenged by climate change.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author is very grateful to the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Nigeria for financially supporting the data collection phase of this study.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

2

World Bank. 2009. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, Washington, DC.

3

BNRCC. 2008. Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change. Backgrounder, NigerianEnvironmental Study Action Team, Ibadan, Nigeria.

4

Uyigue, E. and Agho, M. 2007. Coping with Climate Change and Environmental Degradation in the Niger-Delta of South Nigeria. Benin. Community Research and Development Centre (CREDC).

5

Odjugo, P.A.O. 2010. General Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Nigeria. Journal of Human Ecology 29:47–55.

6

ERM/DFID. 2009. Impact of Climate Change on Nigeria’s Economy. Environment Resource Management (ERM) report submitted to the Department for International Development (DFID).

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7

Mendelsohn, R. and Dinar, A. 1999. Climate change, agriculture and developing countries: does adaptation matter? In: adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forestry and fisheries: perspective, framework and priorities. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.

8

Kurukulasuriya, P. and Rosenthal, S. 2003. Climate change and agriculture: a review of impacts and adaptations. Climate Change Series Paper no. 91. Environment Department and Agriculture and Rural Development Department, World Bank, Washington, DC.

9

IPCC, 2007. op. cit.

10 Kurukulasuriya, P. and Rosenthal, S. 2003. op. cit. 11 Gbetibouo, G.A. 2009. Understanding Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptations to Climate Change and Variability: The Case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00849. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. 12 Nhemachena, C. and Hassan, R. 2007. Micro-level analysis of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in Southern Africa. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00714. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. 13 Below, T., Artner, A., Siebert, R. and Sieber, S. 2010. Micro-level Practices to Adapt to Climate Change for African Small-scale Farmers, A Review of Selected Literature. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00953. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. 14 Lybbert, T. and Sumner, D. 2010. Agricultural technologies for climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries: policy options for innovation and technology diffusion. ICTSD–IPC Platform on Climate Change, Agriculture and Trade, Issue Brief No.6, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Geneva, Switzerland and International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council, Washington, DC. 15 Ahmed, B., Akpoko, J.G., Showemimo, F.A. and Kuchinda, N.C. 2005. Economic analysis of quality protein maize (QPM) seed production at community level in Nigeria. In: Badu-Apraku, et al., eds., 2007. Demand-driven technologies for sustainable maize production in West and Central Africa. Proceedings of the Fifth Biennial Regional Maize Workshop, IITA-Cotonou, Benin, 3–6 May 2005.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

16 FAOSTAT. 2012. World crop production statistics. faostat.fao.org. [Accessed 15 May 2012] 17 Kamara, A.Y., Kureh, I., Menkir, A., Kartung, P., Tarfa, B. and Amaza, P. 2006. Participatory on-farm evaluation of the performance of drought-tolerant maize varieties in the Guinea savannas of Nigeria. Journal of Food Agriculture and Environment 4:192-196. 18 Heisey, P.W. and Edmeades, G.O. 1999. Maize production in drought-stressed environments: technical options and research resource allocation. Part 1 of CIMMYT 1997/98 World Maize Facts and Trends; Maize Production in Drought-Stressed Environments: Technical Options and Research Resource Allocation. Mexico D.F.: CIMMYT. 19 CGIAR. 2009. Global climate change: can agriculture cope? Briefing Dossier, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. 20 Drought tolerance maize is a collective term for maize varieties that are drought tolerant and/or early maturing, hence able to escape drought. 21 Burke, M.B., Lobell, D.B. and Guarino, L. 2009. Shifts in African crop climates by 2050, and the implications for crop improvement and genetic resources conservation. Global Environmental Change 19:317–325.

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22 Lobell, D.B., Bänziger, M., Magorokosho, C. and Vivek, B. 2011. Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nature Climate Change 1:42–45.

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24

La Rovere, R., Kostandini, G., Abdoulaye, T., Dixon, J., Mwangi, W., Guo, Z. and Bänziger, Z. 2010. Potential impact of investments in drought tolerant maize in Africa. CIMMYT, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

25 Kamara, A.Y., Kureh, I., Menkir, A., Kartung, P., Tarfa, B. and Amaza, P. 2006. op. cit. 26 Gujarati, D. 1992. Essentials of econometrics. McGraw-Hill Inc., USA. 27 Maddala, G.S. 1983. Limited Dependent and Quantitative Variables in Econometrics. Econometric Society Monograms 3. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 28 CIMMYT. 1993. The adoption of agricultural technology: a guide for survey design. CIMMYT Economics Program. CIMMYT, Mexico, D.F. 29 Feder. G. and Umali D.L. 1993. Adoption of agricultural innovations, a review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 43:215–239. 30 Adesina, A. and Baidu-Forson, J. 1995. Farmers’ perceptions of new agricultural technology: evidence from analysis in Burkina Faso and Guinea, West Africa. Agricultural Economics 13:1–9. 31 Knowler, D. and Bradshaw, B. 2007. Farmers’ adoption of conservation agriculture: a review and synthesis of recent research. Food Policy 32:25–48.

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23 CGIAR. 2009. op. cit.

32 CIMMYT. 1993. op. cit. 33 Udoh, E.J. and Kormawa, P.M. 2009. Determinants for cassava production expansion in the semi-arid zone of West Africa. Environment Development Sustainability 11:345–357. 34 1 US dollar=150 Naira, during the period of fieldwork. 35 Tambo, J.A. and Abdoulaye, T. (forthcoming). Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian savanna. Regional Environmental Change. 36 Salasya, B., Mwangi, W., Mwabu, D. and Diallo, A. 2007. Factors influencing adoption of stress-tolerant maize hybrid (WH 502) in western Kenya. African Journal of Agricultural Research 2:544–551. 37 Ouma, J., Murithi, F., Mwangi, W., Verkuijl, H., Gethi, M. and De Groote, H. 2002. Adoption of Maize Seed and Fertilizer Technologies in Embu District, Kenya. Mexico, D.F.: CIMMYT.

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38 Kamara, A.Y., Kureh, I., Menkir, A., Kartung, P., Tarfa, B. and Amaza, P. 2006. op. cit. 39 Simtowe, F. and Zeller, M. 2006. The impact of access to credit on the adoption of hybrid maize in Malawi: An empirical test of an agricultural household model under credit market failure. MPRA Paper 45, University Library of Munich, Germany. 40 Deressa, T., Hassan, R.M., Ringler, C., Alemu, T. and Yesuf, M. 2009. Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change 19:248–255. 41 Nhemachena, C. and Hassan, R. 2007. op. cit. 42 Zavale, H., Mabaya, E. and Christy, R. 2005. Adoption of improved maize seed by smallholder farmers in Mozambique. Staff Paper SP 2005–03. Department of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York. 43 Abdoulaye, T., Sanogo, D., Langyintuo, A., Bamire, S. and Olanrewaju, A. 2009. Assessing the constraints affecting the production and deployment of maize seed in DTMA countries of West Africa. International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan.

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Application of traditional knowledge in predicting and adapting to climate Indicators of change and coping strategies for rural communities in the central rift valley of Ethiopia Yoseph Melka, Habtemariam Kassa and Ute Schmiedel

INTRODUCTION

A

griculture forms the basis of the Ethiopian economy, providing roughly 42 per cent of GDP,1 and it is the primary source of livelihood for

the overwhelming majority of the population. The nature of Ethiopia’s

agriculture is primarily rain-fed, hence production is sensitive to fluctua-

tions in rainfall,2 and also to other climatic stresses.3 Drought is a recurrent phenomenon in many parts of the country, resulting in a sharp reduction of agricultural output.4 Besides its economic brunt, drought may also have a profound social impact.5 Large areas of Ethiopia experience high seasonal rainfall variability6 and a number of regions in the country are prone to drought.7 While assessing vulnerability and poverty in Africa,8 Orindi et al., found Ethiopia to be one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change with the least capacity to respond. Frequent droughts in the highlands and floods in the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

lowlands have become major sources of risk for the country. Ethiopia’s high level of vulnerability is linked to factors that include extreme poverty, natural disasters,9 reliance on natural resources10, high sensitivity of the socio economic systems to climate variability,11 a limited financial and institutional capacity to adapt,12 a high population growth rate,13 and lack of an effective safety net.14 One should note, however, that the country has been able to develop large scale safety net programs. But as emphasized by Ziervogel et al., livelihood systems of the rural poor remain largely insecure when poverty reduction efforts are undermined by high levels of vulnerability and environmental stresses.15 Over the course of human history, vulnerable individuals and communities have devised mechanisms to adapt to climate change and variability.16 Despite various constraints (including lack of tailored climate forecasts) 68

rural communities in many parts of Ethiopia have developed the knowledge

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

extremes. Broadly speaking, adaptation methods are those strategies that enable an individual or community to cope with or adjust to the impact of climate variability and change.17 Such activities range from simple traditional measures to the use of high level climate smart technologies. The majority of the rural poor rely heavily on the former as these are accessible to them and are applicable locally. In doing so, rural communities do not depend on a single technique; rather, they employ various adaptation techniques at times to tackle specific livelihood and climatic related problems. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, farmers have been using several adaptation strategies that enabled them to reduce their vulnerability to the negative impact of climate variability and extremes. However, indications are that the current variability and change in climate, coupled with other stresses (such as declining farm size and shrinkage of grazing areas) result in some traditional strategies being unable to help them cope with these changes. Historically, farming communities in Ethiopia remained isolated and poorly supported; hence they rarely accessed and incorporated scientific climate forecasts in their farming decisions. Rather, they relied on traditional knowledge in managing risk and reducing their vulnerability to both climatic and non-climatic stresses. Traditional knowledge is a term often used to describe long-standing traditions, practices and environmental knowledge of communities (often indigenous) in specific areas or regions, which are commonly passed down to younger generations (primarily orally). It illustrates people’s immense knowledge of their environment obtained from living long periods close to nature, continuously learning from each other and from the richness and complex relationships in ecosystems. Although

APPLICATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN PREDICTING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE

and practices to cope with shocks and adverse environmental problems and

the importance of traditional knowledge has been gaining global recogniCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

tion, little has been done to incorporate this knowledge into climate change adaptation strategies, particularly in Ethiopia. On the other hand, access to dependable weather forecast is one of the important prerequisites for designing effective adaptation strategies. Efforts to integrate traditional knowledge into climate change policies have shown a promising result in designing adaptation strategies that are cost-effective, participatory and sustainable.18 However, it is recommended that care should be taken to incorporate it in such a way that it complements, rather than competes, with scientific knowledge.19 Against this background, this chapter is based on a study that was carried out to understand and document the traditional indicators and local level measures, the social networks of information communication and support systems used by communities to anticipate and better adapt to the impacts of climate variability in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, by taking

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Arsi Negele district as a case study area. Accordingly, this chapter explores some of the ways in which local communities in the study area have been using their traditional agro-ecological knowledge in their livelihood strategies to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability and extremes.

ACCESS TO CLIMATE INFORMATION: TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND INDICATORS Access to climate information plays immense major role in reducing the impact of climate variability on agricultural production and livelihoods.20 Hence, it is important to ask what the main sources of information in the rural community are prior to embarking on any kind of climate related intervention. Generally speaking, there are two major sources of climate information: scientific forecasts and traditional knowledge. Depending on the specific conditions in which they are used, the application of either of these information systems has its own merits and limitations. In many African countries, the dissemination of scientific forecasts shows an increasing trend over recent decades.21 ,22 However, access to and the rate of uptake by small-scale farmers and pastoralists has been limited.23,24,25 A number of factors may have contributed to this low level of uptake, including: credibility, scale, legitimacy, cognitive capacity and procedural, institutional and socio economic barriers.26, 27 Besides these, there are additional factors that limit the use of scientific forecasts in Ethiopia. In many rural parts of the country (including the study area), the number of weather stations are few and these are located far from each other. Considering the wide range of agro-ecological zones in the country and the topographic variations, weather forecasts based on data collected from a Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

few stations reduces the precision and reliability of the forecast. Moreover, the forecast system still provides only macro scale aggregated predictions. Thus local level predictions that are needed to inform farmers and enable them to make informed decisions remain limited. The timeliness of the weather forecast also plays a role, i.e. unless farmers get the information in good time prior to making important production decisions, it will be of little use. Given the limitations in coverage and in access to weather forecasts by meteorological organisations, the vast majority of the rural community in Ethiopia rely on traditional agro-ecological knowledge to predict weather and climatic conditions and thus to make decisions. The same holds true for many developing countries, as also asserted by Boko et al.,28 that many rural communities in Africa developed intricate systems of gathering, predicting, interpreting and decision making in rela70

tion to weather. Traditional forecasts are usually produced locally by the

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areas, predicting climate is an important cultural component for farmers, as it is common to discuss indicators on the street, at markets, at social gatherings and with family members. In general, farmers base their agricultural production decisions on local knowledge systems, developed from years of observation, experience and experiments. In particular, traditional knowledge serves as an indicator of changes in weather, mainly in predicting rainfall patterns in order to make local level decisions. The aim of this chapter is not to compare and contrast the two information sources regarding weather forecasts. Such attempts are not recommended either. Rather, the focus is on understanding and building on their strengths, by bringing together climate scientists and knowledgeable persons and local users in the study area. Hence, we argue that integration of scientific weather forecasts with indigenous knowledge would provide better local level forecasts and overcome the limitations cited in using one of the information sources alone.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA The study area, Arsi Negele district, is located in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia at approximately 7o09’– 7o 41’N and 38o25’ – 38o54’E (Figure 5.1). Two kebeles (the lowest administrative unit in Ethiopia, namely Daka Harengama and Wetera, were selected to get an overview of the district, based on information gathered from secondary sources and from farmers who attended climate variability preparedness workshops organised by the

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

on-going research programme in the study area.

APPLICATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN PREDICTING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE

people who live in the area,29 and farmers tend to depend on them. In rural

71

Figure 5.1: Map of the study area

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Daka Harengama represents lowland areas with a flat topography and a semi-arid, dry and hot climatic zone, while Wetera represents the highland areas of the district and has a relatively cool climatic zone. The selection was also based on the differences in resource endowment and exposure to risk, which are assumed to influence farmers’ perceptions, vulnerability to as well as coping mechanisms to drought. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) tools were employed to gather relevant information on the livelihoods of people, traditional indicators of climate variability and farmers’ coping mechanisms. The method helped the researchers focus on issues of particular importance to the farmers. Guided discussions were conducted with groups of 25 to 30 farmers from each kebele, using a checklist prepared ahead of the field trip. The discussions focused mainly on perceptions, traditional indicators of change and local coping strategies commonly used by the community. Secondary information from literature and from zonal and district offices of the Agriculture and Rural Development were collected. Key informant interviews and discussion with the development agents at various levels were also conducted to crosscheck and verify the information collected. Data were then compiled, transcribed, and analysed by categorizing information into thematic areas.

INDICATORS OF CHANGE AND COPING STRATEGIES Farmers indicated lower quantity and uneven distribution of rainfall as the most important risk elements for crop and livestock production in the Central Rift Valley areas of Ethiopia. Traditional agro-ecological knowledge is among the main instruments employed by farmers to survive under adverse drought conditions. Some of the traditional indicators and coping Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

strategies are discussed below.

TRADITIONAL INDICATORS AND MEANS OF COMMUNICATING PREDICTIONS The findings established that local communities in the study area possess a wealth of knowledge that enabled them to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability and extremes. Nearly all households, both in Wetera and Daka Harengama kebeles, asserted that they rely heavily on ancestral techniques to predict weather conditions and cope with adverse impacts of climate variability and change. This is partly due to a lack of access to periodic forecasts and also less instructiveness of the scientific forecast about the local conditions. In addition to agricultural activities, farmers apply local knowledge in other livelihood activities, such as building houses, 72

saving household energy and in determining other social activities. This

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

tackling climate related problems but also with the aim of improving their livelihoods in order to ensure sustainable development. Furthermore, multiple indicators were used at the same time for better weather prediction. Agro-ecological knowledge was found to be more pronounced among certain social groupings of the community. For instance, older members of the community have shown more diverse traditional knowledge than relatively young ones, indicating accumulated experience over the years. Women’s groups possess specialised types of traditional knowledge particularly useful in managing household nutrition, water, energy and health. Religious and traditional leaders were also found to possess a wealth of knowledge compared to regular farmers. Once farmers acquire information, they usually apply it while conducting field preparations, selecting crop varieties and in deciding planting times. In cases of elongated and untimely rainfall, early preparation of storage facilities were commonly done. In some drought seasons, they may also make a decision to sell some of the less productive livestock or temporarily move them to a relatively better place.

COMMONLY USED INDICATORS In the central rift valley of Ethiopia, farmers use a number of traditional indicators to make seasonal forecasts. The most widely used indicators in the study area were astronomical, biological, climatic and spiritual/ cultural. Multiple indicators were used at the same time for better rainfall prediction (Table 5.1). In addition to using traditional knowledge as change indicators, farmers

APPLICATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN PREDICTING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE

implies that farmers usually apply diverse adaptation measures not only for

in Daka Harengama confirmed use of formal media (such as radio to listen Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

to scientific forecasts). However, radio forecasts were also found to be too general and difficult for farmers to disaggregate and incorporate into their farming activities. Despite the adaptive advantages of the agro-ecological knowledge, continuous damage caused by recurrent drought demonstrates that farming in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia remains vulnerable to extreme events.

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CHAPTER 5 Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Table 5.1: Some traditional indicators used in the study areas to predict seasonal precipitation Indicator

Features of the indicator used

Aspect Predicted

Reporting kebele

Moon

Appears concave downward / tipped moon Appears concave upward / cupped moon Circle around moon

Rain comes soon No rain Rainfall

Wetera and Daka Harengama Wetera and Daka Harengama Wetera

Vegetation (Podocarpus tree)

Leaves curl Dust on leaves, twigs Green leaves after clearing the dust Growth of pseudo shoot/leaves If plans bloom in ‘Kiremt/summer’

Rain is approaching No rain Rainfall No rain Drought

Wetera Wetera Wetera Wetera and Daka Harengama Daka Harengama

Wind

Blow from south to north Blows from north to south

Rainfall No rain

Wetera Wetera

Windstorm

When it appears

Rainfall

Wetera

Bees

If migrated out of the rift valley If migrated towards the rift valley

Beginning of rain No rain

Wetera and Daka Harengama Wetera and Daka Harengama

Thunderstorm Hear thunder and see lightning

Intense rainfall

Wetera and Daka Harengama

Birds

Make sound ‘Gogi, Gogi…’ ‘Humo’ bird makes sound ‘Beli’ makes sound at nights

Rain will stop Rain is coming soon Rain coming

Wetera and Daka Harengama Wetera Wetera

Livestock

Refuse to drink water from water points Refuse to graze/lie down on the ground soon after they are taken to the grazing field Show disturbed manner/ refuse to graze calmly Feed up on donkeys dung Resist to getting out of house Stands and raise their nose up towards the sky

It has rained somewhere in neighbouring areas Drought Drought Drought No rain Rain is approaching

Wetera and Daka Harengama Wetera Wetera Daka Harengama Wetera Daka Harengama

Ants

increased presence in the area

Rainfall

Wetera

Termites

Digs soil out into the surface

Rainfall

Wetera

Fog/mist Dew

Increased presence around the area Increased presence/ absence on the grass

Rain approaching No rain/Rainfall

Wetera and Daka Harengama Wetera and Daka Harengama

Sky

Red morning sky

Rain is on the way

Wetera

Spiritual/ Weather lore

Prayers and rain making ceremonies

Rainfall

Wetera and Daka Harengama

74

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

The natural environment provides a wide source of knowledge about weather conditions. Reading and interpreting the signs and indicators requires. Although the majority of Rift Valley farmers posses a range of knowledge about change indicators, they are more worried about the reliability of such indicators in the present context. Such limitations on the effective application of traditional knowledge may arise from various sources, including the localized nature of the knowledge system. In most cases, traditional indicators as well as coping and adaptation strategies are known locally, but are not well disseminated to other areas to contribute to the greater pool of knowledge; this indicates a strong need for policies that encourage and facilitate exchange of information. Local indicators are also restricted by their shorter outlooks as predictions using them often relates to the coming season and not to long term future changes indicating the need for integration of climate forecast models and other relevant input from the scientific community. In lowland kebeles of the Central Rift Valley region of Ethiopia, threats to and degradation of agro-ecological indicators, mainly on the biological indicators were cited as major problems. Variation in climatic conditions, coupled with other stresses (such as land use change, forest and woodland resources degradation30) is affecting the application of traditional indicators in the region. Moreover, many participants mentioned that the current trend of weather variability is making it more difficult to predict rainfall compared to what it was in the past. The other reason for erosion of traditional knowledge cited by farmers

APPLICATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN PREDICTING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE

CHALLENGES IN THE USE OF TRADITIONAL INDICATORS

in Daka Harengama kebele is the recurrent drought that has undermined Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

the confidence of farmers in relying on traditional knowledge systems as sources of indicator as well as the reliability of the indicators itself. Lack of interest by the young generation rearding using traditional agro-ecological knowledge was another challenge cited by many elder community members. Hence, unless this apparent gap is filled, the knowledge could be lost as older members fail to pass on their experiences to younger generations. For instance, as pointed out by farmers both from Wetera and Daka Harengama, one of the common risk aversion strategies in the Rift Valley area (forming a marriage relationship with families living in a different agro-ecology area) is highly endangered as it is ignored and not followed by the present generation.

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SOCIAL LEARNING, INFORMATION NETWORK AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Although the role of traditional knowledge and social learning in technology adoption is well recognized in the literature,31,32 factors that intervene in the process of integrating them in climate change adaptation programs are less well-known. Nevertheless, the increasing role of informal learning mechanisms as a medium of information sharing, particularly through farmer-to-farmer extension programs, is gaining some ground.33 In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, information regarding weather forecasts, market, risk and the like has been almost exclusively shared through traditional systems established a long time ago. In this approach, usually farmers from highland kebeles share such information among themselves and with families and relatives in lowland kebeles and vice versa. In most cases, residents of the highland and lowland kebeles are strategically tied with marriage alliances and social relationships that serve as an important communication channel to exchange weather and other information. Informal traditional institutions (such as idir1, mahiber2 and clan), religious gatherings, traditional leaders and government extension services were mentioned as the common mediums of information exchange. As noted by,34 for effective diffusion of innovation through a society, factors such as socioeconomic status, opinion leadership and interpersonal networks play an important role. Most of the aforementioned indigenous channels and mechanisms are often used to disseminate both indigenous and exogenous information. When indigenous communication channels are used to disseminate indigenous information, it could be applied in two ways. The first is inter-generational communication, which focuses on passing down knowledge from father to son and from mother to daughter;

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

the second one is lateral communication, which refers to the spread of information among peers and from place to place. Indigenous communication is also a useful channel for disseminating exogenous information. Some agricultural technologies, such as new crop varieties and the like, spread without the support of external agents, even from the extension service providers. In the case of the Central Rift Valley, for instance, although the numbers of radio holders in Wetera kebele is found to be limited, compared to Daka Harengama, those who regularly listen to the radio have been used

1

Association established among neighbours and relatives to raise funds/help each other during times of need (wedding, funeral, sickness, etc).

76

2

Local level informal associations depending on similar affiliation (religious, family)

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

in diffusing innovations. Cases discussed above indicate the role of social capital and social learning in information diffusion in rural settings of Ethiopia and in many other parts of the continent. According to,35 the influence of social capital on social learning and information diffusion can be summarized by considering its three major advantages. First, social capital reduces the cost of information acquisition, since it can be acquired passively during social interactions or actively from people who already know each other. Second, social capital reduces uncertainty about the reliability of information: information is likely to be given a higher value if it comes from trusted people. Third, social capital facilitates cooperation and willingness to share information, thereby revealing tacit information that would be difficult to exchange otherwise. In addition to its role in information spread, social capital and networks are helpful to the community in coping and adapting, particularly during stress periods. As noted by36, individuals differ in kinds of knowledge, skills or access to resources and information. This in turn determines vulnerability, social networks, as well as adaptive capacity of farm households. In such systems, those farmers who are endowed with better social capital and family networks could have ease of access to the required information and thereby make timely decisions in their farming practices, enabling them to escape the stress and improve their livelihood as well. In the case of the Central Rift Valley, the existing social capital among farmers of varying agro-ecology is found to serve as an important getaway during the dry season for lowlanders and for highlanders during the heavy rain season. During focus group discussion, participants repeat-

APPLICATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN PREDICTING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE

as sources of information, which indicates the role of socioeconomic status

edly cited this technique as an important traditional risk aversion mechaCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

nism. In the period of stress, farmers in severely affected kebeles send their livestock, weaker family members, or temporarily migrate together with the whole family to relatively better off kebeles. Thus, households with established relationships with families and relatives in other agro ecological zone were found to more escape the stress period more easily compared to those households that lack such relationships – mainly because such family networks simplify the process of temporary migration during stress periods. Though peoples’ capacity and willingness to assist neighbours and relatives were found to be deteriorating, focus group discussion participants identified that sharing food, shelter and other basic resources during periods of severe drought still serves as an important risk aversion mechanism. Understanding and utilizing these traditional knowledge and information exchange mechanisms helps to increase the sustainability of adaptation efforts as traditional knowledge integration process provides for

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mutual learning which in turn contributes the empowerment of the local communities.

TRADITIONAL COPING MECHANISMS As discussed earlier, traditional coping and adaptation mechanisms refers to the practices, skills and techniques developed by farmers over generations, rather than global agricultural technologies generated by a modern network of research institutions.37 It depends more on local resources than external inputs and generally sustains long-term productivity of the agro-ecosystem.38 In most cases, these traditional practices are dynamic in the sense that they are continuously adapted to changing circumstances and environmental conditions.39 Their dynamic nature in turn enables such practices to be easily adapted to unpredictable environmental changes. Most importantly, traditional practices are believed to be stable and therefore maintain a certain degree of sustainability.40 In the studied community, the types of responses were found to be dependent on socio-economic and biophysical factors that in one way or another influence the vulnerability as well as the adaptive capacity of the community. Our engagement with the community through participatory action research demonstrated the existence of variations in coping and adaptation mechanisms between farmers of highland and lowland kebeles. As the highland is relatively less water stressed and endowed with better resources, people practiced a variety of approaches to curb the problem than lowland farmers. In most dry months of the year, farmers of Daka Harengama Kebele face shortages of food, mainly due to production failures Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

and thus they rely heavily on state and external food aids. In Wetera, where households are engaged in both cultivation of crops and rearing livestock, farmers used to produce agricultural crops only once a year during normal production years. By then, use of local varieties of maize, wheat, peas, beans, and barley which relatively require long maturity period was common. Quite recently, the production focus has shifted towards early maturing improved varieties of potatoes, wheat, maize and haricot beans. During drought periods, use of irrigation is becoming a common practice whenever accessible. The introduction of drought resistant crops (particularly enset (E. ventricosum)), and fruit trees to the Rift Valley areas has helped the community cope with adverse impacts of drought. In this regard, participants acknowledged the contribution of enset during the great famine of 1983 – 1985.41 Furthermore, lack of feed and grazing 78

resources resulted in a considerable decline of milk production in Wetera.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

during drought periods and are consuming much less food than they used to in normal times.

Table 5.2: Coping mechanisms in Wetera and Daka Harengama Kebeles

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Wetera

Daka Harengama

t


Introducing new crop variety (enset)

t


Soil and water conservation

t


Biannual production

t


Selling livestock

t


Crop diversification

t


State and external aid

t


Irrigation

t


Temporary migration

t


Change in diet and food habit

t


Charcoal and fuelwood selling

t


Selling of livestock

t


Labour selling

t


Tree planting

t


Repeated sowing

t


Use of improved crop variety

t


Area closure

t


Fruit trees

t


Use of improved (early maturing) crop varieties

t


Cut and carry system

t


Cattle fattening (through partnerships with relatively wealthy people)

t


Use of resistant crop varieties

t


Saving of crop residues (maize straw) as an emergency feed in drought periods

t


Water harvesting

APPLICATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE IN PREDICTING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE

As a result, many households changed their diet and food habits, especially

On the other hand, in Daka Harengama, where farmers face rain shortages, farming is highly exposed to rainfall variability. Farmers were also constrained with a lack of adaptation options, as they were less endowed with natural resources and socio economic assets and options. The most common adaptive farming practice frequently cited by respondents was dividing the cropping field into portions (commonly three portions) and sowing each of the portions within a certain time interval. The sowing was performed mostly in the months of May, June and July, with an assumption of diversifying the risk of missing the critical rainfall. However, further investigation may be required to analyze the sustainability and effectiveness of this strategy. The other commonly mentioned adaptation technique in lowland parts of the Rift Valley was area enclosure and soil

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and water conservation (Table 5.2). In severe cases, households were forced to temporarily migrate to the highland and other neighbouring kebeles, or at least send their livestock to relatives and family members living in a less affected area. Despite their efforts, farmers from lowland kebeles, such as Daka Harengama, often fail to respond adequately to the stresses of climate extremes, particularly during prolonged drought. In such cases, they survive the stresses, not by the amount of agricultural output they produce, but through state and external aid as well as with temporary employment in nearby hotels, horticultural farms and the like.

CONCLUSION The livelihood of farmers in the Rift Valley area is highly linked to a rainfed subsistence agricultural production system, based on a fragile natural resource base. There is a significant limitation of access to seasonal scientific forecasts in the study area; hence, rural communities are highly reliant on traditional knowledge as indicators of change, which are also used in selecting coping strategies. Unlike in previous times, when rural communities were regarded as ignorant and environmentally destructive, there is an improved recognition at present of their environmental knowledge. But little is being done to document farmers’ traditional knowledge. The results of this study show that social capital is mainly important in determining whether farm households have access to information as well as resources to share with relatives and families, especially in times of stress. Farmers who participated in the research possessed an array of agro-ecological knowledge, yet they are gradually losing confidence in this knowledge in the face Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

of increasing weather variability. Scientific forecasts are vital and need to be scaled up to an area that will be useful for farming communities to make decisions. Established social structures, such as family networks and grassroots associations have contributed to efforts of coping and adapting to climate change in Central Rift Calley areas by improving information diffusion among farmers. The coping strategies employed by the community were found to be influenced by agro ecology, socio economic status and resource endowments among others. The findings of the present study suggest the need for incorporating traditional agro-ecological indicators together with modern weather forecast so as to enable timely and relevant decision making at farm level. Therefore, identifying future adaptation interventions should consider those enabling as well as limiting factors in the use of weather forecasts. This calls for improving the quality and avail80

ability of meteorological information, investing in knowledge transfer and

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offices and local people, so as to enable the community to better manage the increasingly unpredictable environment they live in.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study is part of the MECHAL project: An integrated research approach to develop adaptive management strategies by small scale farmers in semiarid South Africa and Ethiopia under changing climatic and policy conditions. The financial support provided by Volkswagen Foundation is greatly acknowledged. We would like to thank farming communities and authorities in the surrounding areas of the Central Rift Valley for their valuable contribution. We also appreciate the anonymous reviewers of the manuscript for their useful and constructive comments.

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NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

Byerlee, D., Spielman, D.J., Alemu, D., Gautam, M. 2007. Policies to promote Cereal Intensification in Ethiopia: A Review of Evidence and Experience. International Food Policy Research Institute. Development Strategy and Governance Division, Discussion Paper 00707.

2

Conway, D. and Schipper, E.L.F. 2011. Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environ. Change 21, pp.227–237 .

3

Yesuf, M., S. Di Falco, T. Deressa, C. Ringler and G. Kohlin., 2008. The Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation on Food Production in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 828 (Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2008).

4

Benson, C and Clay, E., 1998. The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan African Economies. Technical Paper No. 401. World Bank, Washington, DC.

5

Conway, D. and Schipper, E.L.F. 2011.

6

Conway, D. and Schipper, E.L.F. 2011.

7

NMSA (National Meteorological Service Agency). 2001. Initial National Communication of Ethiopia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). NMSA, Addis Ababa.

8

Orindi, V., Ochieng, A., Otiende, B., Bhadwal, S., Anantram, K., Nair, S., Kumar, V and Kelkar, U. 2006. In: Thornton, P. K, Jones, P. G, Owiyo, T., Kruska, R. L., Herrero, M., Kristjanson, A., Bekele, N. and Omolo, A. (Eds). Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa. Report to the Department for International Development, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya.

9

Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Tabo, R and Yanda, P. 2007. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., Van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E. (Eds.). Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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establishing strong co-operation among scientists, government extension

81

Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, pp. 433–467.

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.

10 World Bank. 2000. Can Africa claim the 21st century? World Bank, Washington, DC. 11 IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 12 Beg, N., Morlot, J.C., Davidson, O., Afrane-Okesse, Y., Tyani, L., Denton, F., Sokona, Y. Thomas, J.P., La Rovere, E.L. and Parikh, J.K. 2002. Linkages between climate change and sustainable development. Climate Policy 2, pp.129–144. 13 NAPA. 2007. Climate Change National Adaptation Program of Action for Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 14 Desanker, P. and Magadza, C. 2001. Africa. In: McCarthy, J., Canziana, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D., White, K. (Eds.). Climate Change 2001. Impacts, Adaptations and Vulnerability. CUP, Cambridge, pp. 489–531. 15 Ziervogel, G., Taylor, A., Thomalla, F., Takama and T, Quinn, C. 2006. Adapting to climate, water and health stresses: insights from Sekhuhune, South Africa. Stockholm Environment Institute. 16 Adger, W.N. 2003. Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change. Economic Geography 79(4), pp.357–404. 17 Nyong, A., Adesina, F. and Elasha, O.B. 2007. The value of indigenous knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the African Sahel. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 12, pp.787–797. 18 Robinson, J. and Herbert, D. 2001. Integrating climate change and sustainable development. Int J Glob Environ Issues 1(2), pp.130–148. 19 Nyong, A., Adesina, F. and Elasha, O.B. 2007. 20 Washington, R., Harrison, M., Conway, D., Black, E., Challinor, A., Grimes, D., Jones, R., Morse, A., Kay, G. and Todd, M. 2006. African climate change: taking the shorter route. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(10), pp. 1355. 21 O’Brien, K.L. and Vogel, H.C. (Eds). 2003. Coping with climate variability: the use of

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seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa. Ashgate Publishing, Aldershot, U.K. 22 Washington, R., Harrison, M., Conway, D., Black, E., Challinor, A., Grimes, D., Jones, R., Morse, A., Kay, G. and Todd, M. 2006. African climate change: taking the shorter route. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(10), pp. 1355. 23 Archer, E.M. 2003. Identifying underserved end-user groups in the provision of climate information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84: 1525–1532. 24 Ziervogel, G., Bharwani, S. and Downing, T.E. 2006. Adapting to climate variability: pumpkins, people and policy. Natural Resource Forum, 30: 294–305. 25 Washington, R., Harrison, M., Conway, D., Black, E., Challinor, A., Grimes, D., Jones, R., Morse, A., Kay, G. and Todd, M. 2006. African climate change: taking the shorter route. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(10), pp. 1355. 26 Patt, A and C. Gwata. 2002. Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Global Environ. Change, 12:185–195 27 Washington, R., Harrison, M., Conway, D., Black, E., Challinor, A., Grimes, D., Jones, R., Morse, A., Kay, G. and Todd, M. 2006. African climate change: taking the shorter route. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(10), pp. 1355. 82

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29 Ziervogel, G. and Opere, A. (Eds). 2010. Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in the agricultural sector. International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. Climate Change Adaptation in Africa learning paper series. 30 Garedew, E., Sandewall, M., Söderberg, U. and Campbell, B. 2009. Land- Use and LandCover Dynamics in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. Environmental Management 44: 683–694. 31 Conley, T. and Udry, C. 2001. Social learning through networks: the adoption of new agricultural technologies in Ghana. American Journal Agricultural Economics 83: 668–732. 32 Munshi, K. 2004. Social learning in a heterogeneous population: Technology Diffusion in the Indian green revolution. Journal of Development Economics 73: 185–213. 33 Eveleens, K.G., Chisholm, R., Van de Fliert, E., Kato, M., Nhat, P.T. and Schmidt, P. 1996. Midterm review of Phase III Report. FAO Inter-country program for the development and application of integrated pest control in rice in south and south-east Asia, Manilla, Philippines. 34 Mundi, P. and Compton, J.L. 1991. Indigenous Communication and Indigenous Knowledge. Development Communication Report 74. Clearinghouse on Development Communication, Arlington, VA. 35 Katung, E., Edmeades, S. and Smale, M. 2006. Gender, Social Capital and Information Exchange in Uganda. CGIAR systemwide program on Collective Action and Property Rights, CAPRi, working paper No 59. 36 Ellis, F. 2000. Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries. Oxford University Press, USA. 37 UNEP. 2005. Agroecology and the search for a truly sustainable agriculture. Mexico DF, United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

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38 Gliessman, S. 2007. Agroecology: the ecology of sustainable food systems. Boca Raton, Florida, USA, CRC Press.

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28 Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M., Osman-Elasha, B., Tabo, R. and Yanda, P., 2007. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., Van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E. (Eds.).

39 Belay, T. 1998. Integrating Indigenous and Modern Agricultural Technologies in the Drought–Prone areas of Ethiopia. Proceedings of workshop on Rural development in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 40 Radclift, M. 1987. Sustainable Development: Exploring the contradictions. Methuen and Co. Ltd., London. 41 De Wall, A. 1991. Evil Days: Thirty Years of War and Famine in Ethiopia. New York & London: Human Rights Watch.

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Climate change adaptation through sound land use planning While the world ticks, Ethiopia lags Tendayi Gondo

INTRODUCTION

I

n the wake of climate change related risks and disasters, many countries around the globe have become relentless in adopting innovative spatial planning approaches to boost the resilience and adaptation capacities of

their city authorities.1 Such a focus on city level planning is not misplaced, given that cities are generally centers of economic and population growth.2

It is this dominant feature that has seen cities becoming a focal point of both climate change related risks and disasters and the solutions thereof. The OECD3 has advanced three reasons why climate change policy should be redirected to municipal level planning. The first argument holds that climate change impacts are manifested locally, affecting city-wide systems (including economic systems, livelihoods, infrastructure and water). The second thinking holds that vulnerability and adaptive capacities are determined by local conditions. Finally, it is believed that adaptation activities Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

are often observed at the local level and it is therefore easy to tailor action to the specifics of a particular city.4 There is widespread empirical evidence to suggest that many urban planning authorities around the world have adopted innovative land use planning approaches to boost the reliance and adaptation capabilities of their cities amidst actual and potential challenges caused by climate change.5 In cities of the developing world, such a view is based on anecdotal rather than credible empirical evidence. Research and policy action on planning for adaptation of cities in the developing world is arguably just emerging.6 The existing knowledge gap has limited our own understanding of the extent to which climate adaptation practices are embedded in sound land use planning practices. More specifically, it has impoverished our own thinking and understanding of factors that explain the adoption / 84

non-adoption of sound urban planning practices by certain municipalities.

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planning authorities have adopted sound land use planning practices to deal with actual and potential climate change related challenges. This chapter discusses innovative urban planning responses to climate change and some of the challenges that limit the pursuance of sound land use planning practices.

INNOVATIVE URBAN PLANNING APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE Most urban planners across the world have undoubtedly embraced the idea that climate change is inevitable, and that adaptation is necessary.7,8 To this end, climate change in urban landscapes has increasingly become a consideration with a range of mitigation and adaptation tools being developed.9 Prediction of local area effects caused by climate change has been viewed as one of the most important crucial step to understanding the scope and magnitude of climate change related challenges that cities of today are facing. However prediction of such impacts has not always been certain. Various approaches to dealing with uncertainty have been proposed in response to this challenge.10 Examples of such approaches include – the risk

CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING

The analysis redresses this deficit by evaluating the extent to which city

approach, anticipating design, resilience, adaptive management, and robust decision making among others. Reconciling urban climatology with urban planning has been viewed as one other innovative step to winnowing climate related risks in recent times. Urban planning applications have often resulted in the production of climate analysis maps, synthetic functions maps, wind flow or airflow maps including climatic guidelines for urban planning. Such research projects have a long history however. The first studies on applied urban climatology Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

were conducted in Germany in the 1960s and 1970s. Similar projects have also been carried out in Switzerland11,12 and in Portugal (Lisbon) among others. It is now common at city scale to talk about climate based planning and urban design. Mills13, observes that responsive urban designs characteristically incorporate climate based planning approaches at various scales including building, neighbourhood and settlement scales. Specific planning interventions under climate change scenarios are depicted in grey on Table 6.1.

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Table 6.1. Climate based planning through urban design. Objective

Impacts

Limits Buildings

Building Groups

Settlement

Indoor comfort

Buildings

Location Materials Design (shape, orientation etc.)

Access to light, solar energy, wind Air quality

Building codes

Outdoor comfort Outdoor health

Building groups

Local climate change: Emissions Materials/surfaces Building dimensions – flow interference and shadow areas

Building palcement. Outdoor landscaping, materials and surfaces Street dimensions and orientation

Guidelines on: Densities Heights Uses Green spaces

Energy use Air quality Protection from extremes

Settlement

Energy efficiency Air quality Urban climate effect

Mode and intensity of traffic flows. Energy efficiency Air quality Urban climate effect

Zoning Overall extent and shape. Transport Policy Source: Adapted from Mills, (2006:71).

Climate adaptation objectives at city scale have often ranged from protection against weather extremes and ensuring urban air quality to addressing climate change – for example through limiting the use of fossil fuel energy.14 Sound land use planning approaches at building scale have often sought to provide shelter and an indoor climate, while at the same time minimizing use of external energy sources. A number of urban design instruments seek to moderate outdoor extremes and create a comfortable environment exist. These include: building placement, material selection, the design of a building envelope, and landscaping of the immediate environment.17 Decisions on street layout, building dimensions and placement and landscaping of Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

the outdoor environment have often been made at the neighbourhood scale. In urban areas, climate change response planning has been a key framework that has been applied internationally (Ford, 2008). It is also interesting to note that the framing of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is in favour of explicit adaptation plans.15

BUILDING RESILIENCE AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING: THE CHALLENGE Despite being climate-change conscious, land use planning approaches continue to be strained by a number of challenges. Norman16 observes that fu86

ture design of urban settlements and infrastructure in response to climate

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

proach that integrates science and urban planning. Other researchers have also noted that fostering strong partnerships between all actors is critical in planning and decision-making, especially in building the resources and capacities of municipal government to address climate change.17 More specifically, Norman18 has observed that the integration of public and private land management will be a critical factor in managing ‘cumulative impact and risk’ as a result of climate change. There is, however, a general lack of strong partnerships among ecologists, urban designers, landscape architects and urban residents that has, in most cases, been blamed for unsustainable land use practices.19 The integration of science and planning in response to climate change has not always been smooth in many urban contexts. It is argued that many previous planning efforts have been plagued by non-application of climate knowledge in urban planning.20 This alone has been a vexing challenge affecting city authorities in the developing world. A daunting challenge in this area has been coming up with plausible climate change projection at city scale, given a substantial amount of uncertainty that surrounds prediction of local area impact.21 At a more urban planning policy level, difficulties that decision makers face in interpreting

CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING

change will require both an inter-governmental and multi-disciplinary ap-

and using climate scenarios and uncertainty information, as well as how to appraise the policy implications of uncertainties are well documented.22 The depletion of per capita urban green space owing to rising urbanisation trends has arguably compromised the resilience and adaptation capabilities of most urban ecosystems.23 The unprecedented loss of urban green space has often led to a subsequent loss and thinning of ecosystem services; which in turn has resulted in loss of resilience and options for future generations.24 Urban planning policies have often failed to step up Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

to this challenge. Wald and Hostetler,25 for example, note that most policies on urban green space do not address possible impacts of nearby built areas or the importance of design and management of nearby developments. Hostetler et al,26 have observed that green and built infrastructures are not integrated in most urban ecosystems. Recent years have also seen the concept of sustainable development increasingly being used to guide urban planning in response to climate change.27 Lack of practical guidelines on how the concept should be translated into practice has, however, hampered its effective implementation.28 Building resilience and adaptive capacity through sound land-use planning practices has become the most significant current and future environmental challenge29 that requires solutions that are not piecemeal.30 A review of literature, however, reveals that most urban planning authorities settle for stand-alone adaptation measures, as opposed to an integrated

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approach that strives to embed climate risks into the overall city development planning process. Several other researchers have observed similar behavior among planning authorities in some developing countries.31 Such practice has often been justified on the grounds that it allows for measurable, reportable and verifiable use of new and additional funding.

THE INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND URBAN PLANNING IN ETHIOPIA The World Bank anticipates that rainfall will increase and temperature will rise by 2 degrees Celcius in Ethiopia and other East African countries by 2050 due to climate change. Most urban landscapes in Ethiopia are currently reeling under climate change related challenges, such as flooding and windstorms. The scope and intensity of such challenges are expected to increase in the future. Ethiopia has become one among a few developing countries in Africa that has recognized the pivotal role played by green infrastructure in boosting the resilience and adaptation capabilities of urban ecosystems through the enactment of various legal instruments. Notable policy/legal instruments include the Ethiopian Constitution of 1995, and the Ethiopian Urban Development Policy (EUDP) of 2005. Central to the implementation of such legal instruments has been The Ethiopian National Urban Planning Institute (NUPI), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Disaster Planning Unit. Activities of such key players in fostering sound land use planning in a climate change scenario have, however, remained under-researched. Owing to their potentially damaging impact to both rural and urban communities, climate change issues have become a high government priCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

ority through the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is a mechanism within the UNFCCC that was designed to help the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) (including Ethiopia) to identify their priority adaptation needs to climate change and to communicate these needs to the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC and other concerned bodies. In addition, the Ethiopian government has already put in place policies, strategies and programs that enhance the adaptive capacity and reduce the vulnerability of the country to climate variability and change. Such programs include Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), Environmental Policy of Ethiopia, Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy.

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Empirical evidence presented relates to a Delphi study conducted in 2008, in which a panel of 64 urban planning experts (drawn from 23 towns and / cities of Ethiopia) were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Figure 6.1 portrays the profile of such respondents by city / town. The average length of employment of such experts was 6.58 years (standard dev.

Name of City or Town

= 4.989).

Jimma Kombolch Addis Ababa 1.4493% Wukro Chancho Adama Dire Dawa Not specific Sekota 2.8986% Adwa Debre Sina Deder Dessie G/Gurach Gambela 4.3478% Nemkete Amara Ke Barhir Dar Bekossi 7.2464% Haramaya Arba Minch 8.6957% Harar Mekelle

.0%

5.0%

CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING

ETHIOPIA’S DELPHI CASE STUDY

17.391%

10.0% Percent

15.0%

20.0%

Figure 6.1. Profile of respondents.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

In addition, independent sample survey results from a sample of cities were utilized. The Binary logistic regression model was employed to decipher some of the major factors that explain adoption and non-adoption of sound land use management practices by certain municipal authorities. Independent survey material was used to complement the logistic model. Such survey data was used to make up for the general weakness associated with the logistic model in explaining relationships that relate to socioeconomic variables. Details are given in the next section. Interviews and local documents provided information on current plans. Data was analyzed using SPSS.

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EMPIRICAL MODEL SPECIFICATION The Binary logistic regression model was employed to decipher factors that may explain adoption / non-adoption of sound land use planning approaches to climate change by some municipal authorities. This study assumed that the probability of a municipal official dismissing the land use planning practices as sound is determined by underlying obstacles to sustainable urban planning practices commonly mentioned in urban planning, climate mitigation and adaptation literature. In such a condition – when dealing with a dichotomous dependent variable – the main interest is to assess the probability that one or other characteristic is present. The logistic regression model answers the question of what determines the probability that the answer is yes or no. The special features of the model guarantees that probabilities estimated from the logistic model will always lie within the logical bounds of 0 and 1. The model assumed the following statistical formula: Y = ȕ0 + ȕ1x1 + ȕ2x2 + ȕ3x3 + ȕ4x4 + ȕ5x5 + ȕ6x6 + ȕ7x7 + ui Where Y

= Probability / likelihood of a municipality adopting good sound use planning practices (Pr. Sound land use planning / = 1)

ȕ0 to ȕ7

= Are parameters to be estimated

x1

= Urbanization trends (rate of urbanization in last 5

x2

= knowledge of local area effects (5 point likert scale: 1

years in %) = poor; 5 = Excellent) x3

= nature of planning guidelines (0 = well defined; 1 = poor defined)

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

x4

= nature/level of integration ( 5 point likert scale 1 = low; 5 = high).

x5

= availability of resources and capacities (5 likert scale 1 = poor; 5 = Excellent)

x6

= Stakeholder involvement ( 0 = absence; 1 = present)

SELECTION OF MODEL VARIABLES A number of variables were identified based on existing literature and the availability of data in the study area. Evidence of climate change initiatives being embedded in land use planning practices constitutes sound land use planning in this analysis. Existing literature reveals that building resilience and adaptive capacity through urban planning requires that a num90

ber of fundamentals are in place. These include: increasing urbanization

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

the surroundings;34 the existence of over-arching planning frameworks that are well integrated with other climate change initiatives at different planning scales;35 political will in municipal authorities;36 an approach that engages stakeholders;37,38 the presence of land-use planning guidelines;39 and resources and capacities of the municipality.40

MODEL EVALUATION Parameters in the logistic regression model were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The statistical significance of each coefficient was evaluated using the Wald test. The enumerated regression coefficients represent the change in the logit of the probability from a unit change in the associated predictor, assuming other factors are constant.41 A p-value greater than 0.05 signifies that the concerned independent variable is insignificant in explaining variations in the dependent variable. A significant independent variable will be characterized by a p-value of less than 0.05. The goodness-of-fit test of the regression model in this study was analyzed using:

CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING

trends;32,33 an understanding of how climate change effects might affect

(a) The Omnibus test, which is a likelihood ratio chi-square test that tests whether or not the coefficients of the variables in the model are all jointly equal to zero. (b) The Hosmer & Lemeshaw (H-L) goodness-of-fit test, which examines the null hypothesis that the model adjusts well to the data. (c) The Cox and Snell (1989) and Nagelkerke (1991) tests – two descriptor measures that reveal the amount of variation in the outcome

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variable that is explained by the models.42 The inferential goodness-of-fit test employed was the Hosmer & Lemeshow (H-L) test, which yielded a Chi-square of 8.474 that was insignificant (p > 0.05), suggesting the model fitted the data well. Two other descriptive measures of goodness of fit are R2 indices defined by Cox and Snell43 and Nagelkerke.44 Results suggest 35 to 53.8 per cent of variations in the outcome can be explained by the model predictors.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PREPAREDNESS OF ETHIOPIAN CITIES Results reveal that urban planning authorities in Ethiopia are less prepared to boost the resilience and adaptive capacities of their cities and towns in response to actual and potential climate change related risks and disasters.

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Less that 5 per cent of the enumerated experts concurred that they were not yet ready to tackle the challenge through intelligent urbanism (Figure 6.2a). Despite this drawback, it is encouraging to note that a number of municipalities had some policy measures in place or were prepared to react to possible climate induced disasters (Figure 6.2b). The bulk of such municipalities occupy the vast area of Ethiopia that is currently prone to flash floods and sandstorms. Such climate response measures, however, suffer from the general divide that exists between spatial planning agencies and environmental planning agencies at national and local planning scales. Despite their common concern for ensuring sustainable development in urban landscapes, activities of NUPI and NEMA have run parallel. They have over the years remained polarized, isolated and disintegrated. A reevaluation of factors that explain the adoption and / or non-adoption of sound land use planning practices revealed a number of challenges. Table 6.3 shows summary results of the applied Binary logistic model. A number of factors that explained the adoption / non-adoption of sound land use planning practices were deciphered. Increasing urbanisation trends were identified as one of the major factors that limited the adoption of sound land use planning practices. Results from the Binary logistic model revealed that municipalities experiencing a high rate of urbanization in the last 5 years were 0.78 times [i.e Exp(b) = 0.780] more likely to adopt poor land use planning practices. Because urbanisation trends in most cities / towns are consistently low, such results were, however, found to be insignificant – indicated by a high p-value of 0.359. Related analysis revealed that most urbanising municipalities were failing to cope with increased pressure on limited land resources owing to a surge in demand. As a result, the bulk of green infrastructure supporting architectures, such as urban forests, open spaces, wetlands and riverine

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ecosystems, have been severely disturbed. A significant negative association between area covered by urban forest (Y) and gross population density (X) was discerned in Addis Ababa during the period 2002 to 2008 (R square = 0.737, df = , p value = 0.013, F = 14.002).

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Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

50% 47.69%

43.08% 43.08%

40%

40%

30%

Percent

Percent

30%

20%

23.08% 20% 13.85%

10.77% 7.692%

10% 3.077%

1.538%

4.615%

10% 1.538%

0%

0% To a very lesser extent

To a lesser extent

To a very large extent

Yes

Not sure

To what extent are LAs ready to deal with climatic extremes?

Yes, but ...

No, not at all ...

No, but plans are underway

Don’t know

Existence of policy measures targeted at reducing possible climate change induced disasters.

(a)

(b)

Figure 6.2. Status of climate change response planning. Table 6.2. Test parameters for the binary logistic regression model.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

B

S.E.

Wald

df

p-value

Exp(B)

Urbanization trends

-.249

.271

.842

1

.359

.780

Knowledge of local area effects

-3.232

.549

34.620

1

.000

.039

nature of clear guidelines

1.779

.228

61.148

1

.000

5.924

Nature / level of integration

.768

.425

3.263

1

.071

2.156

Availability of resources and capacities

1.854

.390

22.621

1

.000

6.388

Stakeholder involvement

.784

.414

3.590

1

.058

2.189

Constant

.047

.638

.005

1

.942

1.048

CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING

50%

Most of the non-urbanised areas of Addis Ababa and other big cities have given way to increasing demand for residential, industrial and commercial land use. It is the physical alteration of urban landscapes that has seen non-urban land being converted into urban land that has ultimately compromised the environmental quality of Ethiopia’s urban ecosystems. The associated loss and thinning of green space-related ecosystem services has meant loss of resilience and options for future generations. Fostering climate change responsive urban space through sound land use planning has been constrained by the limited use of climate science in predicting local area effects. Municipalities, whose capacity to predict

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local area effects was defined as high, were 0.039 times more likely to adopt sound land use planning practices than those with low predictive capacities. The low p-value of 0.00 indicates the significance of such a variable. The relative shortage of computer technology experts and skilled personnel dedicated to predicting local area effects in most municipalities has constrained their decision making capability. Such a factor was however found to be less significant in constraining sound urban planning practices owing to a high p-value (p value > 0.05). A failure to register actual and potential climate change impact has seen most municipalities scoring low on the integrated risk planning and management scoreboard (Figure 6.3). Results reveal approximately 49 per cent (49.3) of sampled officials reported that their municipalities are not involved in any risk planning and management activities. Such deficiencies in risk planning and management affected 12 municipalities in the sample of 24. Officials from the other 12 municipalities were, however, engaged in one or more risk management activities in a largely incremental manner.

8.0% 4.0% .0%

Risk assessment Risk monitoring

Percent

8.0% 4.0% .0% 8.0% 4.0% .0%

Risk measuring None

8.0% 4.0% .0%

Risk identification and monitoring

8.0% 4.0% .0% Wukro Sekota Not specific Nekemte Mekelle Kombolch Jimma Harar Haramaya Gambella G/Gurach Dire Dawa Dessie Deder Debra Sina Chancho Bekossi Barhir Dar Arba minch Amara Ke Adwa Addis Ababa Adama

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8.0% 4.0% .0%

Risk planning and management activities routinely carried out by the LA

Risk identification

8.0% 4.0% .0%

Name of City or Town

Figure 6.3. Risk planning and management activities routinely carried by municipalities. Another significant factor constraining the effective implementation of sound urban planning in response to climate change is the absence of clear planning guidelines (p value < 0.1). As shown in Table 6.2, municipalities 94

lacking clearly defined planning guidelines were 2.156 times less likely to

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

tion of climate change response strategies / policies has therefore remained a lip-service, rather than a reality, in most municipalities that claim to have a credible climate response mechanism in the absence of such guidelines. At urban planning policy level, the absence of clear guidelines has compromised development control mechanisms by concerned municipalities. The result has been illegal land use in the majority of towns and cities (Table 6.3). In Masha town alone, a significant number of industrial land use activities occupy 16 per cent of unregistered land parcels. The same statistics were much higher (26 per cent) for residential land use activities (Table 6.3). Related statistics for the town in years 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 reveal that approximately 99 per cent of properties on registered land were implemented without any approved site plan by municipal authorities.45

Table 6.3. Registered and unregistered land parcels / plots in a sample of 3 towns / 2008. Nekemte2 (n=15) Abiy Addi1a

Abiy Addi1b

Informal plots

Masha3a

Masha3b

# of plots registered

1597 (77)

2136 (68)

4 (27)

1328 (74)

773(84)

# of plots unregistered

466 (23)

996 (32)

11 (73)

349 (26)

121(16)

Estimated loss in Revenue (birr) ?

603936

645408

?

?

?

CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING

adopt sound planning practices in response to climate change. The transla-

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1 = Abiy Addi Municipality, 2008: a = old occupation / registration; b = new allocation / obligatory registration. 2 = Based on informal settler survey, 2008. 3 = Municipality of Masha (Finance Department), 2008: a = Residential land plots; b= Business land plots.

Land use planning activities of the municipalities have remained outside the purview of mainstream environmental concerns of other key players such as the Federal Government, the Environmental Management Agency and the national disaster management unit. Results however suggest that such lack of integration is not significant (p value > 0.05). This alone suggests that many municipalities do not consider synchronizing their land use management policies with those of other partner institutions. Another much less significant concern is lack of stakeholder engagement in activities of the municipalities (p value > 0.05). Stakeholder involvement is reportedly low. This in part is a reflection of low political will to forge strong partnerships with other key players. It is also in part a reflection of limited resources and capacities that restrain municipalities from engaging in a multiple of collaborative activities at different scales. Study results revealed

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that resources and capacities are one of the most significant factors that deter sound urban planning practices by the officials in response to actual and potential climate risks and disasters.

CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF ETHIOPIAN CITIES’ RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE The analysis reveals that although a significant number of municipal authorities in Ethiopia are climate change conscious, many more seemingly adopt ad hoc or haphazard land use planning approaches to the challenge. Most municipalities have settled for stand-alone adaptation measures, as opposed to an integrated approach that strives to embed climate risks into the overall city development planning process. Several other researchers have confirmed the existence of such behavior among planning authorities in some developing countries.46,47 Such a practice has often been justified on the grounds that it allows for measurable, reportable and verifiable use of new and additional funding.48 No evidence to this was discerned in this analysis. Instead, the adoption of incrementalist approaches by such municipalities is a result of limited resources and capacity as well as the disjuncture that exists between planning and environmental management units. The ability of municipalities to boost their resilience and adaptive capacity has also been thwarted by a lack of stakeholder involvement. The absence of an active stakeholder constituency in many other African countries has been echoed by several other scholars. Myers,49 for instance, has observed that stakeholder participatory planning is usually outside the purview of mainstream planning in many African countries. Where local Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

engagement exists, it is often dismissed as elitist and state dominated.50 Myers argues that this is so because most sustainable urban development programs are donor driven and therefore too polarised to allow for both social and environmental urban democracy. This is an unwelcome development since urban planning practices that seek to address the impacts of an uncertain climate would require a more nuanced approach that recognises input from all actors, including the poor and the vulnerable.54, 51 Using a climate lens in urban planning will certainly require better understanding of the problem context.52 Limited application of climate science in urban planning has seen many municipalities having a much more construed view of the challenges at hand. Other scholars have observed that data describing the environmental conditions characterising urban landscapes is usually lacking in East Africa.53 On a more international scale, 96

knowledge regarding future spatial arrangements of population densities

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

currently limited. This alone has stifled any efforts by planners and decision makers to have a better understanding of the context of climate related challenges affecting their urban ecosystems. In Ethiopia, where resources and capacities are limited, the challenge is much bigger. The resources and capacity challenge can be overcome by adopting land-use planning approaches that are inclusive. Bulkeley et al.,54 noted that fostering strong partnerships between all actors is critical in planning and decision-making, especially in building the resources and capacities of municipal government to address climate change. Such an integrated approach, as Waldt (in Hostetler)

55

put it, should be a participatory planning

process aimed at integrating sectoral strategies in order to support the optimal allocation of scarce resources between sectors and geographical areas and across populations in a manner that promotes sustainable growth. Climate-responsive planning requires the integration of climate science across planning domains, as well as an approach that encourages stakeholder engagement. Bulkeley et al.,56 and Betsil and Bulkeley57 find municipal governments to be critical in shaping the capacity for this local process. Such a critical role should be receptive to a more nuanced approach that recognizes input from all actors, including the poor and the vulnerable.54,59

CLIMATE ADAPTATION THROUGH SOUND LAND USE PLANNING

and locations, or even the value of assets across the entire urban area, is

CONCLUSION The analysis has revealed that most countries across the globe have become relentless in adopting innovative land use planning practices in response to actual and potential climate change related risks and disaster. While the bulk of developed countries are making progress, developing countries like Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Ethiopia are still lagging behind. Their land use management strategies have been tainted by a variety of challenges, including: lack of integration with other policies, separation of planning, environmental agencies and the disaster management unit. Other limiting factors include the absence of a credible climate change policy and land-use planning guidelines. Like the rest of the world, Ethiopian planning authorities have not been spared by the gulf that exists between climate science and land-use planning. The whole situation has been compounded by rising urbanisation trends in most urban landscapes of Ethiopia. Subsequently, the resilience and adaptive capacities of the respective municipalities have remained constrained by many of these factors. Only approaches that seek to redress such challenges first would work for Ethiopia and other developing nations.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to express gratitude to the institutional support rendered by the Ethiopian Civil Service University (ECSU), through its World Bank / UNDP funded Urban Management Masters Programme (UMMP). Many thanks also go to former students at ECSU who assisted in the data collection exercise. The views expressed here are, however, those of the author and not necessarily of the supporting institutions.

NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

Kithiia, J. and Dowling, R. 2010. An integrated city-level planning process to address the impacts of climate change in Kenya: The case of Mombasa. Cities (27) 466–475.

2

Young, R.F. 2010. Managing municipal green space for ecosystem services. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening (9) 313–321.

3

OECD. 2009. Policy guidance on integrating climate change adaptation into development co-operation. Pre-publication version.

4

OECD. 2009.

5

Kithiia, J. and Dowling, R. 2010.

6

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. 2007. Climate change impacts 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canciani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. Van der Linden, & C.E. Hanson (Eds.), Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. UK, Cambridge: Cambridge University.

7

Kithiia, J. and Dowling, R. 2010.

8

Norman, B. 2009. Principles for an intergovernmental agreement for coastal planning and climate change in Australia. Habitat International (33) 293–29.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

9

Norman, B. 2009.

10 Dessai, S., Van der Sluijs, J.P. 2007. Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation – A Scoping Study, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 2007. 11 Norman, B. 2009. 12 Dessai, S. and Van der Sluijs, J.P. 2007. 13 Mills. 2010. 14 Ford, J. 2008. Emerging trends in climate change policy: The role of adaptation. International Public Policy Review, 3, 5–15. 15 Ford, J. 2008. 16 Norman, B. 2009. 17 Bulkeley, H., Schroeder, H., Janda, K., Zhao, J.Z., Armstrong, A., Chu, Y.S., et al. 2009. Cities and climate change: The role of institutions, governance and urban planning. Report prepared for the World Bank symposium on climate change. World Bank. (accessed on 09.11.09). 98

18 Norman, B. 2009.

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20 Colding, J., Lundberg, J. and Folke, C. 2006. 21 Dessai, S., Van der Sluijs, J.P. 2007. Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation – A Scoping Study. Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Utrecht. 22 Mathijssen, J., Petersen, A., Besseling, P., Rahman, A., Don. and H. 2008 (Eds.) Dealing with Uncertainty in Policymaking, PBL publication 550032011, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and RAND Europe, The Hague/Bilthoven/Leiden. 23 Kennedy, C., Cuddihy, J. and Engel-Yan, J. 2007. The changing metabolism of cities. J. Ind. Ecol. 11, 43–59. 24 Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson, L. and Holling, C.S. 2004. Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 35, 557–581. 25 Hostetler, M., Allen, W. and Meurk, C. 2011. Conserving urban biodiversity? Creating green infrastructure is only the first step. 26 Hostetler, M., Allen, W. and Meurk, C. 2011. 27 Hostetler, M., Allen, W. and Meurk, C. 2011. 28 Young, R.F. 2010. 29 Girardet, H. 2003. Cities, people, planet. In: Vertovec, S. and Posey, D.A. (Eds.), Globalization, Globalism, Environment, and Environmentalism: Consciousness of Connections. Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 87–102.

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19 Colding, J., Lundberg, J. and Folke, C. 2006. Incorporating green-area user groups in urban ecosystem management. AMBIO 35, 237–244.

30 Pahl-Wostl, C. 2007. The implications of complexity for integrated resources management. Environ. Modell. Softw 22, 561–569. 31 Klein, R.T.J. 2008. Financing adaptation to climate change. Policy brief. Stockholm: Stockholm Environmental Institute. (accessed on 02.04.10).

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32 Krausmann, F., Fischer-Kowalski, M., Schandl, H. and Eisenmenger, N. 2008. The global sociometabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and their future trajectories. J. Ind. Ecol. 12, 637–656. 33 Monstadt, J. 2009. Conceptualizing the political ecology of urban infrastructures: Insights from technology and urban studies. Environ. Plann. A 41, 1924–1942. 34 Moser, C. & Satterthwaite, D. 2008. Social dimension of climate change: Pro-poor climate change adaptation in urban centres of low and middle-income countries. Washington, DC: The World Bank. 35 Betsil, M.M. & Bulkeley, H. 2006. Cites and multilevel governance of global climate change. Global Governance, 12, 141–159. 36 Betsil, M.M. & Bulkeley, H. 2006. 37 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report. 2007. 38 Myers, G.A. 2008. Sustainable development and environmental justice in African cities. Geography Compass, 2(3), 695–708. 39 Nnkya, T. 2007. Why planning does not work? Land use planning and residents rights in Tanzania. In G.A. Myers (Ed.). Sustainable development and environmental justice in African cities. Geography compass (vol. 2/3, pp. 695–708). Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Mkuki na Nyota Press.

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40 Mertz, O., Halsnæs, K., Olesen, J.E. & Rasmussen, K. 2009. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries. Environmental Management, 43, 743–752. 41 Peng, C.Y., & So, T.S.H. 2002. Modelling strategies in logistic regression, Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 14, 147–156. 42 Peng, C.Y., So, T.S., Stage, F.K. and St. John, E.P. 2002). The use and interpretation of logistic regression in higher education journals: 1988–1999. Research in higher education, 43, 259–293. 43 Cox, D.R. and Snell. E.J. 1989. The analysis of binary data (2nd ed.). London Chapman and Hall. 44 Nagelkerke, N.J.D. 1991. A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biometrika,78, 691–692. 45 Municipality of Masha. 2007. 46 Betsil, M. M. & Bulkeley, H. 2006. 47 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report. 2007. 48 Myers, G. A. 2008. 49 Myers, G. A. 2008. 50 Nnkya, T. 2007. Why planning does not work? Land use planning and residents rights in Tanzania. In G.A. Myers (Ed.). Sustainable development and environmental justice in African cities. Geography compass (vol. 2/3, pp. 695–708). Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Mkuki na Nyota Press. 51 Mertz, O., Halsnæs, K., Olesen, J. E. & Rasmussen, K. 2009. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries. Environmental Management, 43, 743–752. 52 Moser, C. & Satterthwaite, D. 2008. 53 Huq, S., Kovats, S., Reid, H. & Satterthwaite, D. 2007. Editorial: Reducing risks to cities from disasters and climate change, in environment and urbanization. International Institute of Environment and Development IIED, 19, 3–15. 54 Bulkeley, H., Schroeder, H., Janda, K., Zhao, J. Z., Armstrong, A., Chu, Y. S., et al. 2009. 55 Hostetler, M., Allen, W. and Meurk, C. 2011. 56 Bulkeley, H., Schroeder, H., Janda, K., Zhao, J. Z., Armstrong, A., Chu, Y. S., et al. 2009.

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57 Betsil, M. M. & Bulkeley, H. 2006.

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PART II

Green and low carbon economy opportunities for Africa

101

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The concept and concerns Martin Kaggwa and Muchaiteyi Togo

CHAPTER 7

Embracing the green economy

INTRODUCTION

T

he idea of a green economy is a new policy direction sweeping across both developed and developing countries as part of global efforts to mitigate against and adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.

The move towards a green economy was motivated by increasing green-

house gas emissions from human productive activities that are depleting the ozone layer and subsequently causing undesirable climatic changes and ecosystem instability. It is also motivated by recognition that world production systems cannot continue to sustain increased economic activities intended to meet global socio-economic needs indefinitely, given their current set-up. In other words, the current means through which the world is using available resources in order to meet human needs is not sustainable. This is true for both developed and developing countries. The available resources are limited and many are not renewable. Most concerning though, is that Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

these resources are not only depleted though direct utilisation in production undertakings, but the processes used affect the environment, which in turn negatively affects the quality of available stock of resources. The concept of a green economy has spread like wildfire since its conceptualisation in 2008 in development policy debates. Having been developed in policy discourse in developed countries, it is now an integral part of policy recommendations for developing countries. Since the concept was the brain-child of developed countries and is now being made part of most development policy engagements between developed and developing countries, it is important to critically assess what the move to a green economy entails from the perspective of developing countries and what it means for developing countries in Africa in general.

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DEFINING THE GREEN ECONOMY There does not seem to be a generally accepted definition of the concept of a green economy. Defining the green economy has been made even more confusing by a growing trend of commercialising the descriptor ‘green’. It is not uncommon to hear people talking about green cities, green buildings or green transactions. The notion of a ‘green economy’ was conceptualised as a way of reviving the economy and creating employment opportunities, while at the same time addressing climate change and environmental degradation.1 The United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) defines a green economy as “one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities”.2 Underlying the green economy concept is the desire to achieve strong economic performance through sound environmental stewardship.3 The green economy is believed to present new opportunities for addressing unsustainable production patterns. The concept is said to be outcomes based and aimed at: contributing towards eradicating poverty and improving human well-being; enhancing social inclusion (a situation where there is just distribution of benefits within and across generations); creating opportunities for employment and decent work for all; and linking economic performance with efficient resource utilisation for sustainable economic growth.4 In general, the green economy can be defined as an economic system organised in such a way that it takes into account negative effects (of production processes) on the environment and the ecosystem and includes internal remedial measures to stop or reduce these effects while continuing to engage in economic activities. The green economy is all about organ-

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ising the way we produce goods and services cognisant that it does not negatively affect the environment and the future of the same production processes. Besides ensuring the sustainability of production activities, the green economy comes with other benefits, including job creation and poverty alleviation. Slaper and Krause5 contend that a green economy is one that generates jobs, business and investment while expanding clean energy production and increasing energy efficiency. According to the agenda of the Rio Earth Summit held in 1992, the aim of greening the economy was to improve human well-being and social equity while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. At the centre is the aim of improving people’s lives by combating climate change, energy insecurity and other ecological scarcities and disturbances threatening the well-being of people, especially the poor (e.g.: food and 104

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man health, etc.6 The key words in the definition of the green economy are therefore: resource endowment, production systems or processes, meeting the socioeconomic aspirations of citizenry, the natural environment and the earth’s climate system – aspects which are inter-related. However, underlying the green economy is the desire to increase productivity, making sure that production processes are clean in terms of effects on the natural environment.

INTERPRETATIONS OF THE GREEN ECONOMY

EMBRACING THE GREEN ECONOMY

water scarcity, natural disasters, ecosystem instability, deteriorating hu-

To enable a better understanding of the concept of a green economy and to facilitate easy implementation, a number of individuals and groupings developed green economy models and principles. These models and principles can potentially influence the way people implement a green economy. However, some of them, as will be discussed in this section, fail to recognise the important role of addressing social issues in sustainable development, especially in the context of developing countries. Social issues are at the centre of environmental challenges in developing countries. These were, however, not directly responsible for the conceptualisation of the notion of a green economy – even though they form part of the defined aims of the concept. Figure 1 shows the factors that influenced the conceptualisation of a green economy as being a fusion of: environmental challenges (climate change, biodiversity loss and water stress); economic

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challenges (the 2008 global financial meltdown); and energy security issues.

Environmental

Global Financial Meltdown (2008)

Energy Security

Ø Figure 7.1: Factors influencing the transition to a green global economy Source: Nhamo et al7

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These factors are influencing the way people think about and understand the concept of a green economy. Social issues are sometimes marginally located in green economy models with environmental (ecological) and economic issues enjoying a central position. According to the European Environmental Agency8, most interpretations of a green economy concept recognise the linkages among ecosystems, the economy and human well-being; but, the Agency argues, at the core of these links is the dual challenge of: ■

ensuring ecosystem resilience of the natural systems that sustain us (and limiting pressure on natural systems so that their ability to function is not reduced); and

■

improving resource efficiency (and reducing the environmental impact of our actions).

The Agency modeled this interpretation as shown in Figure 7.2. The figure shows three spheres that overlap and outlines the section/component of the overlapping spheres, which mirrors the green economy. Social issues are only partially included in the green economy section.

Ecosystem (natural capital) Goal: ensure ecosystem resilience

Economy (produced capital) Goal: improve resource efficiency

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GREEN ECONOMY Human well-being (social and human capital) Goal: enhance social equity and fair burden sharing

Figure 7.2: Green economy model developed by the European Environment Agency9 The ecosystem and economy are at the core of the concept of a green economy, which in a way shows that they are high priority challenges (as opposed to human well-being, which has a marginal position). This model reveals an inherent mismatch in the focus of the concept, which can also influence the way people employ it to address their development needs. For 106

Africa, it can be a detriment if development priorities are shaped according

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inextricable linkages between economic and environmental challenges and social issues, which are a development priority on the continent. The United Nations University Institute for Natural Resources in Africa (UNU-INRA) conceptualised the green economy as shown in Figure 7.3 below and argued that the three pillars in the model (low carbon technology, resource use efficiency and inclusive growth) are highly relevant for development and inclusive growth.

Resources use efficiency Energy Security

Ø

Ø - Innovation - Productivity - Employment

EMBRACING THE GREEN ECONOMY

to such a way of thinking, as there seem to be no due consideration of the

Sociallyinclusive growth

Ø

Figure 7.3: Green economy model developed by the UNU-INRA10 Inclusive growth emphasises equity of access where “economic opportunities created by growth are available to all, particularly the poor, to the maximum extent possible”.11 While the UNU-INRA model also stresses soCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

cial inclusion, the core of the three pillars the model highlights innovation, productivity and employment – which again leaves out social challenges crucial to the African continent, for instance, poverty eradication. These two models demonstrate that social sustainability issues are not naturally located within the concept of a green economy. The concept can therefore be interpreted and applied in a way that is not inclusive of, or which marginalises, social sustainability challenges. The European Environmental Agency cites its 2010 flagship report, The European Environment: State and Outlook which, however, points out that human well-being should be included as a third element in green economy discussions. Africa in particular should conceptualise and implement a green economy in a manner that is inclusive of its priority developmental challenges. Human well-being should be equally prioritised alongside economy and ecosystems. Such an

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understanding is becoming evident in the way organisations and individual authors are defining green economy principles. Box 1 is a summary of draft green economy principles developed by major groups and stakeholders gathered at the UNEP Governing Council in February, 2012 and sent out for comment ahead of the Rio+20 Summit12. Box 1. Principles of a green economy 1. It delivers sustainable development. 2. It delivers equity – The Justice Principle. 3. It creates genuine prosperity and well-being for all – The Dignity Principle. 4. It improves the natural world – The Earth Integrity, Planetary Boundaries and Precautionary Principle. 5. It is inclusive and participatory in decision making – The Inclusion Principle. 6. It is accountable – The Governance Principle. 7. It builds economic, social and environmental resilience – The Resilience Principle. 8. It delivers sustainable consumption and production – The Efficiency Principle. 9. It invests for the future – The Inter-generational Principle.

The green economy principles listed in Box 1 are multi-dimensional, comprehensive and reiterate the values defined through the concept of sustainable development. Some of the principles defined by other organisations and individual authors seem to relate to application of the green economy concept in particular sectors. The values highlighted by other authors include those pertaining to recycling, waste management, supply chain and local food production. Diversity, self-reliance, multi-functionality, human creativity and development are some of them.13;14;15 Despite the effort that went into defining the concept of a green economy and modelling it and defining its principles, there are still concerns and uncertainties regarding the meaning of the concept, its implementation and how it can help Africa achieve social equity and inclusivity. Controversies Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

still exist regarding its meaning, aims and how it can be operationalised in local contexts. Some argue, however, that the concept’s ‘nebulous’ definition could be advantageous, as it enables nations to re-define it for themselves and plan how to achieve it according to their specific circumstances.16

GREEN ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The Brundtland Report (1987)17 defined sustainable development as “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. The underlying ideology is the need to guide development policies to be ecologically, economically and socially plausible. During the World Summit on Sustainable 108

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broadly stated as: ■

Poverty eradication

■

Sustainable management and conservation of natural resources

■

Making globalisation work for sustainable development

■

Improving governance at all levels

■

Financing for sustainable development; and

■

Education, science and technology for decision making.18

Sustainable development has not been wholly successful and many of its

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Development (WSSD) 2002, the objectives of sustainable development were

objectives have, thus far, not been achieved. A number of reasons were put forward to explain the apparent failure of sustainable development from resulting in visible impacts in terms of improving livelihoods in developing countries. These include: lack of political will to take forward and implement key aspects of sustainable development; and institutions that are too weak to integrate environmental issues in national development plans. The above identified objectives of sustainable development capture, to a large extent although implicitly, the aim of achieving or moving towards a green economy. Although related, and despite the seemingly simplified relationship between sustainable development and the green economy (as evidenced by the above objectives), the two are not the same. The green economy is, to a large extent, a subset of sustainable development, which has wider objectives over and above the central issues that are embedded in the concept of a green economy. It is, therefore, neither a substitute for the concept of sustainable development, nor does it make any of the objectives of sustainable development less important. The green economy is considered, in the context of sustainable developCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

ment and poverty eradication, to be one of the “important tools available for achieving sustainable development”.19 Against this background, the move towards a green economy is being presented by some as a silver bullet that will solve all socio-economic issues that sustainable development is failing to achieve. It is still not clear how feasible and practical is this school of thought. There are still many questions that policy makers have to deal with regarding the two concepts. Policy makers are still grappling with the challenge of operationalising the green economy model as a vehicle to achieve sustainable development. It is still not clear if the green economy can succeed where sustainable development is seemingly failing. Kuhne et al20 argue that as long as there is competition among firms and countries for markets (as they try to maximise their profits), firms will find a way to

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cut the costs of environmental protection. By circumventing environment protection costs, firms will be getting a competitive edge over their competitors in the market place. It is argued that as long the conventional capitalist system of profit maximisation is still in place, environmental protection will continue to suffer.21 The arguments presented here show that as long as the green economy movement continues to be premised in the conventional capitalism paradigm, it is not likely to succeed given the cost-competitive dynamics embedded in such a system. Even though the concept of a green economy does not replace sustainable development, there is now a growing recognition that achieving sustainability rests partially on getting the economy right. The green economy is therefore presented as part of the solution.

THE GREEN ECONOMY IN THE CONTEXT OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Developed countries are major emitters of greenhouse gases and are, therefore, major contributors to global warming and the associated changes in climate. These countries achieved high levels of economic development at a high cost to the environment and are now spearheading the move towards a green economy. If not well-managed, the green economy may not be all good for developing countries that are still struggling to achieve their development prospects. This raises issues for developing countries that still need to develop their resources to benefit their economies and whose contribution to greenhouse gas emission has so far been low. What makes the green economy relevant to developing countries is the negative environmental effect of current attempts at development. Developing countries need to chart a development path that is less polCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

luting and that does not compromise environmental well-being. Many of the current development initiatives are still impacting negatively on the environment. An increase in agricultural production, for example, was accompanied by deforestation in many developing countries; yet timber logging, on the other hand, has become an important economic activity among countries with forest resources. In addition, many developing countries rely on wood as the major source of fuel, which has resulted in a reduction in forest cover. Net deforestation is evident both at international and national level. Table 7.1 captures global statistics related to changes in forest cover, forest loss, deforestation and aforestation rates between 1990 and 2010.

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1990

2010

World forest area (hectares)

4.17 billion

4.03 billion

World planted forest area (hectares)

178 million

264 million

1990–2000

2000–2010

8.3 million

5.2 million

Annual net forest loss (hectares.year) Annual deforestation (hectares/years)

16 million*

13 million

Annual increase in planted forest (hectares/year)

3.6 milliom

4.9 million Source: FAO, 201022

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Table 7.1: Global changes in global forest cover and deforestation between 1990 and 2010

The deforestation scenario presented above is characteristic of depletion trends among many other natural resources in the developing world. Developing countries are therefore left without any choice but to participate in the green economy in a bid to curb depletion trends as demonstrated in Table 7.1. How they are going to participate, given their levels of development and other sustainability realities, is another issue that requires careful consideration, as this is most likely to be different to the way developed countries will be involved. It is important, particularly for developing countries, to note that whereas sustainable development integrates socioeconomic dimensions that are critical to developing countries, the move to a green economy is premised predominantly on production systems and productivity, as discussed before. Developing countries should therefore follow an economic growth path that is relevant and that responds to their

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socio-economic needs.

MAJOR DRIVERS OF A GREEN ECONOMY The overarching objective of the green economy is to achieve economic growth while making sure that economic growth activities do not compromise the integrity of natural resources and also respond to current and anticipated climate changes. For this to be realised, proponents of the green economy emphasise the creation and promotion of green jobs. Green jobs are defined as “work in agriculture, industry, services and administration that contributes to preserving or restoring the quality of the environment” and are expected to reduce environmental impacts of economic activities to sustainable levels.23 According to UNEP, green jobs are expected to respond to the following two challenges facing the 21st century:

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■

averting dangerous and potentially unmanageable climate change and protecting the natural environment which supports life on earth, and

■

providing decent work and thus the prospect of well-being and dignity for all in the face of rapid population growth worldwide and the current exclusion of over a billion people from economic and social development.24

Job creation, under normal circumstance, is a result of an increase in economic activity and the associated economic growth. The difference, in the case of creating green jobs, is that these will be expected to facilitate resource use efficiency through cutting natural resource consumption, including: the consumption of water, energy and other raw materials; reducing green house gas emissions; minimising all forms of pollution; and through protecting and/or restoring ecosystems and biodiversity. Green jobs will be located in a variety of sectors and will entail a number of initiatives, some of which are discussed below.

PROMOTING USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Energy use is integral to any production process. An increase in production activities therefore translates into an increase in energy use. Fossil fuels are the most important source of energy in developing countries in Africa, but they are a major cause of pollution. Since energy use is a ‘necessary evil’ in economic growth processes, it is recommended that effort should be made to migrate from using fossil fuels like coal to renewable energy sources like hydroelectric power and wind energy -which also have a limited impact on the environment. Solar energy is another recommended source, especially Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

in Africa, which receives the highest solar radiation levels.

EFFICIENT USE AND MANAGEMENT OF ENERGY Irrespective of the energy source used to support economic growth, the manner in which it is used and the energy gadgets used, especially their power consumption propensity, all have a bearing on the extent of resultant environmental effects. Use of energy saving gadgets and equipment helps to cut down significantly on emissions and the carbon footprint. Efficient energy use and management may entail replacing incandescent light bulbs with energy saving light bulbs, using energy efficient heaters and stoves (among others) and switching off lights and appliances when they are not in use. 112

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Buildings consume a lot of energy and in America: 39 per cent of its energy and 68 per cent of its electricity.25 Buildings consume energy through heating, lighting and air conditioning, etc. Employing a green building design or energy efficient building methods will result in direct energy and cost savings. These methods include: insulating buildings for better temperature regulation; designing the building so that it uses natural lighting as much as possible; installing motion sensors to reduce use of electricity; and use of gas stoves. These measures, if implemented in combination with the use of energy efficient gadgets (energy saving stoves, bulbs, etc.) and where

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GREEN BUILDING DESIGN

renewable sources of energy (solar, wind, etc.) are being utilised, can result in remarkable savings in terms of energy while lowering greenhouse gas emissions from buildings. Such practices are said to have the potential to achieve a 50 per cent reduction in carbon emissions.26

WASTE MANAGEMENT INCLUDING WASTE RECYCLING Waste is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emission. Waste decomposition processes in landfills releases gases like methane, which is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide and hence is a major contributor to climate change.27 In the US, for example, about 2 million tons of methane is emitted per year.28 Burning open waste dumps are a problem in developing countries and add to air pollution through the release of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide is about 300 times more potent that carbon dioxide, although it is released in small quantities.29 Waste also contributes to ground water contamination through leachate from dumps. In East Africa for example, poor waste management has interfered with wetland ecosystems, Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

threatening future fishing activities. With proper management, the effects of waste on the environment can be minimised. Waste can also be utilised as a resource through good management practices, including recycling and composting. Composting produces a natural fertilizer that can be used in place of artificial fertilisers; at the same time, it helps reduce emissions from waste dumps as, during composting, most of the carbon contained is the waste matter is retained.30 Another waste beneficiation practice is to harness the energy from waste combustion for power generation, which will help to offset emissions that would have resulted from generating the same amount of energy from other sources.31

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CLEAN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS Transport systems are major polluters in many economies. Vehicles release gases and pollutants, like carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides and toxic substances32 into the atmosphere, contributing to air pollution. The situation is worse in developing countries, where regulations governing vehicle emissions and emissions in general are weak. Due to weak regulations and the fact that many developing nations are still struggling in terms of economic development, many of these countries import vehicles and equipment (that fails to pass emissions requirement in developed countries) at relatively low prices but at a very high cost to the environment. South East Asian countries, for example, import old Japanese cars while countries in South America import old cars from the United States.33 Japanese cars are also flooding markets in African countries like Zimbabwe and Zambia. In many of these developing countries, there is no requirement to install a catalytic converter on a vehicle nor for factory emission systems to clean exhaust fumes before they are released into the atmosphere. In the case of transport systems, the transition to a green economy will entail enforcing the ‘polluter pays principle’ by putting in place policies that will lead to a reduction in emissions from vehicles, including laws to govern permissible emission levels. Restricting importation of used vehicles is another policy which the government of Zimbabwe is threatening to enforce, but its implementation has been stalled by the country’s poor economic performance in recent years. Other measures that African countries could also consider include: use of alternative fuels (e.g. biofuel – research on electric and solar powered vehicles is now quite advanced); enforcing inspection and maintenance programmes where vehicles that cannot be properly maintained are forced off the roads; placing a high tax on imported

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used vehicles; subjecting imported vehicles to stringent emission requirement conditions.34

GREEN/SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES Agriculture is one of the sectors that were identified by UNEP35 as important in the transition to a green economy. Increase in agricultural practices result in increased loss of forest cover, which in turn affects overall vegetation cover and ultimately climatic conditions. Continued use of land for agricultural purposes makes it less productive over time. In addition, about 13 per cent of anthropogenic global greenhouse gas emissions are from agricultural operations, including emissions from the production and use of inorganic fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, and the use of fossil-fuel 114

energy in agricultural production processes.36

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production while limiting the negative environmental impact of such productivity and making an attempt to enhance/restore the productivity of land under cultivation. It involves shifting both industrial and subsistence farming towards ecologically sound farming practices, such as efficient use of water, extensive use of organic and natural soil nutrients, optimal tillage and integrated pest control. There is potential to improve productivity, to restore the environmental impact of agriculture, to improve efficiency in managing resources in agricultural production processes and to reduce emissions from agriculture. Other benefits include poverty eradication, addressing food security and malnutrition issues and job creation. Though

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Sustainable or green agriculture is aimed at maximising agricultural

there is a need for further research to fully exploit the benefits of green agriculture, some countries are already benefiting from water and soil management and diversification practices aimed at greening the agricultural sector, for example: drip irrigation, mulching, use of low water crop varieties, green manure, non-tillage practices, inter-cropping, crop diversification and diversification into animal husbandry and horticulture.37 These are some of the practices that African countries can explore in greening their agricultural practices. It is imperative for African countries that are implementing a green economy to explore ways of getting involved in the above activities. However, in doing so, there is need for countries to reflect on how each of the activities will affect or can be aligned to national development plans and how they will impact on the welfare of each country’s citizens both in the short and long run.

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BENEFITS OF THE GREEN ECONOMY Proponents of a green economy point out that the world economy quadrupled in the last quarter of the century,38 though unevenly among countries. This economic growth has been accomplished mainly through utilisation of natural resources without allowing stocks to regenerate, thereby allowing widespread ecosystem degradation and loss. According to UNEP, by 2011, only: 20 per cent of commercial fish stocks (mostly low priced species) were under-exploited; 52 per cent were fully exploited with no further room for expansion; about 20 per cent were over-exploited; and 8 per cent were depleted.39 UNEP also revealed that clean water had become scarce and water stress was projected to increase, with water supply satisfying only 60 per cent of world demand in 20 years to come. Agricultural yields were increasing primarily due to the use of chemical fertilizers, which are in turn negatively affecting soil quality.40 These are some of the challenges

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that motivated renewed interest in the ‘development versus environment’ debate – and subsequently the need for a transition to a green economy. Against this backdrop, advocates of a green economy motivate its adoption, particularly by developing countries facing poverty challenges, based on, among others, the following advantages: ■

A green economy recognises the value of, and invests in natural capital. By putting a price on nature which by character is a public good, its depletion will be made more visible and felt by economic agents, who will in turn motivate conscious effort to protect it. With this in place, economic values can be estimated for natural resources and appropriate investment in them enabled. Thus, the transition to a green economy does not only result in recognition and demonstration of the value of natural capital as a source of human well-being, as a supplier of sustenance for poor households and as a source of new and decent jobs, but also leads to investment in and the building up of this natural capital for sustainable economic progress.41

■

The transition towards a green economy entails reducing deforestation and increasing reforestation – practices that make good economic sense in their own right. It also supports agriculture and rural livelihoods, which is relevant to many developing countries. Forests are a key part of the ecological infrastructure that supports human well-being. Forest goods and services support much of the economic livelihoods of over 1 billion people.42 Reducing deforestation – as encouraged by the move towards a green economy – can therefore be a good investment. The climate regulation benefits of halving global deforestation alone have been estimated to exceed the costs by a factor of three.43

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■

The green economy enables agriculture to feed the world’s growing population without undermining the sector’s natural resource base. A major challenge the world faces today regarding agriculture is being able to feed 9 billion people by 2050 without damaging ecosystems. Current farming practices use over 70 per cent of global freshwater resources44 and, as mentioned before, contribute to over 13 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions.45 Greening agriculture is highly likely to result in an increase in world food production to meet an increasing population, while minimising negative effects of such efforts on the environment. Greening agriculture will also necessitate institutional strengthening and infrastructure development in the rural areas of developing countries, which will ultimately benefit poor local communities.

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Farm–level analysis suggests that green farming practices can

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also help to resolve issues around land size in many African countries in which land fragmentation is resulting in increasingly smaller holdings which, under conventional agriculture, have not been producing sufficient yield to sustain farmers and their families. ■

A green economy presents opportunities for more sustainable urban living and low-carbon mobility. With rapid urbanisation in developing countries and an increase in the urban poor, a green economy also presents opportunities for poverty alleviation. Rapid urbanisation is exerting pressure on fresh water supply, sewage systems and public health. This often results in poor service delivery, declining

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substantially increase yields, especially on small farms.46 This may

environmental performance and significant cost in terms of public health. Embracing a green economy will create opportunities for cities to improve energy efficiency and energy productivity from renewable sources, which potentially leads to a reduction in emissions from buildings and the production of other waste. The green economy also promotes access to key services through innovative, low-carbon transportation modalities. All these initiatives are intended to save money, while enhancing productivity and social inclusion and protecting the integrity of natural resources. A green economy is understood to be a vehicle for poverty alleviation in developing countries, as stated in the following quotation: “A key feature of a green economy is that it seeks to provide diverse opportunities for economic development and poverty alleviation without liquidating or eroding a country’s natural assets. This is particularly necessary in low-income countries, where ecosystem goods and services are a big component of the livelihoods of poor rural communities and provide a safety net against Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

natural disasters and economic shocks”.47 The benefit of embracing a green economy in developing countries is that countries will be empowered to integrate green economic initiatives in planning a development path. In addition, there is now a wealth of information regarding the benefits and costs of a green economy and the time frames involved before benefits are realised, which can help to make informed choices. The available information can also be used to inform technology choices by countries as this is an important determining factor behind national growth trajectories.

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POLICY CONCERNS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES There is still much contestation of the adoption of a green economy, particularly in developing countries. An unqualified adoption of a green economy is being contested by many policy makers and civil societies in developing countries. Some of the key reasons put forward to support the position that a green economy may not meet expected outcomes, like triggering growth and sustaining socio-economic aspirations in developing countries, are discussed below. ■

Achieving higher economic growth while providing for aggressive environmental protection is not possible in economic systems that prioritise profit. Proponents of a green economy make the assumption that continued economic growth while protecting the environment is possible through technological and social innovation.48 There is no guarantee, however, that this will always be the case in a profit oriented society. Benefits of efficiency gain emanating from technological innovation may not necessarily be used by firms to mitigate against negative production effects on the environment, but rather to increase profit margins. In addition, realities on the ground indicate that the production processes for green products and services are not always green. Hydro turbines, windmills and solar panels (among others) are produced using fossil fuels or by using dirty and cheap coal as the major energy source. Specific to developing countries, efforts to increase economic growth through exploitation of natural is often accompanied by destruction of rain forests and soil degradation. For many developing countries in Africa, economic growth cannot be realised without a trade-off in

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terms of the environment. Hence the contention to the proposition that higher economic growth is possible while providing for aggressive environmental protection. ■

A green economy approach does not address issues of individual exploitation at a micro level nor power relations between developing and developed countries that have hitherto contributed to constraining developing countries from achieving some of their development goals. Moreover, the green economy does not fully address the social dimension of development. Social justice and aspects pertaining thereto are not a given benefit in the transition to a green economy.49The main issues addressed are around economic growth, green jobs and poverty reduction50 and not social issues such as class, gender and race. An unrealistic assumption is made that the

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social question will be addressed implicitly through the generation

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tionable, since some of these jobs will involve exploitation of natural resources. Exploitation of natural resources inevitably has a tradeoff in terms of environmental degradation. ■

The green economy trivialises the debate around socio-ecological transformation.51 It does not articulate explicitly how the (often contradictory) objectives of social and ecological transformation will be dealt with. Existing social contradictions and conflicts are rendered invisible by faith in the virtue of management and governance approaches.

■

The green economy is pushing for the commodification of nature52

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of green jobs. But the ‘greenness’ of the jobs to be created is ques-

under the guise of its protection and, in so doing, is making it vulnerable to market shortcomings that often affect quasi-public goods like many environmental resources. Issues of property rights, freeriders and externalities come to the fore as a result of this commodification. The general assumption of a green economy is that environmental markets will function optimally when the state is providing the right policy frameworks, yet this may not be true in the fundamental utilisation of public goods, as they are often associated with market failure. When it comes to public goods, the conventional market system does not always attain an optimal outcome. ■

The commodification of nature that the green economy presupposes is based on a strong, but unrealistic, assumption that prices can express the true value of natural resources. This belief masks the fact that there are many functions of nature that can by no means be expressed in monetary value. Common goods like nature should be protected and sustainably used, instead of being valued in terms of their monetary worth. Their use is also better controlled if it is

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

based on social-ecological criteria, rather than business principles. Proposals for a green economy, in current forms, are at risk of intensifying the valorisation of nature by capitalists. This is becoming apparent in climate policy in the case of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) mechanism, a new magic tool for cash flows if emissions of greenhouse gases from deforestation are reduced. This is explained further in detail in the next chapter. ■

The green economy paradigm proposes use of market-based instruments to counter over-utilisation of resources and ecosystems.53 Such a prospect is, however, problematic and is less likely to be realised given the lack of well-defined property rights for natural resources. The underlying assumption is that at a particular point in time it will be economically cheaper not to pollute or over-exploit the natural environment than vice versa. However, as long as some of the costs

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of polluting or over-utilising resources can be passed on to innocent parties, over-exploitation of resources is likely to continue. ■

The green economy model can be socially and spatially selective and exclusive if it is not carefully adopted.54 Its relevance is highly skewed in favour of rich and technologically competent developed nations that can afford to trade their emissions and to fund the transition to low-emission green technologies. The benefits may not be attractive to poor economies, including many Africa states, which are struggling with debt repayment and are currently over-burdened by other social challenges that compete for funds.

In addition to the above identified reasons, which basically highlight the view that a green economy may not meet expected outcomes in developing countries, there are many arguments that counter the position of green economy advocates. The two prominent ones are: ■

The potential of a green economy to expand global markets for climate and environmentally friendly goods and services is indisputable; however, the growth is not necessarily certain especially considering uncertainties confronting the world today. In addition, economists often fail to correctly predict economic growth and market growth dynamics, even in the short term. Therefore, the promise that a green economy will expand markets for green goods and services should not be taken as gospel truth.55

■

The other unqualified assumption is that transition to a green economy will be accompanied by economic growth and subsequently development. If a green economy results in increased productivity, it may be able to achieve economic growth. However, economic growth

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

does not necessarily translate into development, as socio-economic dynamics (like the conditions under which people produce commodities, rewards for labour and sharing of benefits of increased production) come to the fore. In a strictly profit-oriented production system, these important aspects of development may be considered as being secondary.56 ■

A green economy presupposes that businesses will make decisions that will support sustained economic growth while improving people’s welfare. However, this may not be the case. Whether to prioritise people’s welfare or profits will be at the discretion of business executives. Actual outcomes will depend on whether capitalistic motives or democratic aims will prevail in the control of a green economy.57 Quite a number of issues regarding control have to be addressed,

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with certainty that a green economy will to lead to improvement in people’s livelihoods.

CONCLUSION Embracing a green economy provides developing countries in Africa with both challenges and opportunities for development. It is important that African countries situate the implementation of green economy policies within the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication,

EMBRACING THE GREEN ECONOMY

including unique national circumstances, before it can be argued

so as to drive sustained, inclusive and equitable processes of job creation and economic development. Of importance in the process is inclusion of all relevant stakeholders, i.e. business and industry, government, nongovernmental organisations and civil society. There is also a need to ensure a holistic approach in terms of equipping workers with the necessary green skills, including through education and skills development. The process of putting in place pre-requisites for successful implementation of green economic initiatives will take time and resources to do so may not necessarily be available in the short-run. Countries should therefore prioritise environmentally friendly projects that are in line with current resources and capabilities. Other relevant structures to support implementation of a green economy may be developed later when resources are available. There are many potential benefits of embracing a green economy in countries in Africa. However, given the fact that many poor people on the continent rely on the environment, there is a need to balance the objectives of a green economy and the current use of natural resources as the basis for rural livelihoods, so as not compromise the well-being of the people. What Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Africa needs are strategies (and technologies) that minimise the adverse effects of natural resource exploitation and help to restore resources without necessarily stopping use of these resources altogether – as that would compromise the well-being of its people. There should be a balance between pursuing development needs and the intention to protect the environment and subsequently to mitigate against climate change; otherwise the move to a green economy may deter rather than support the development efforts of many African nations.

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NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

UNEP. 2009. Global Green New Deal: An update for the G20 Pittsburgh Summit. Nairobi: UNEP.

2

UNEP. 2011. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to sustainable development and poverty eradication. A synthesis for policymakers. Nairobi: UNEP. pp2.

3

Zukang, S. 2010. Green Korea Conference – 29 Sep 2010. http://www.uncsd2012.org/ rio20/?page=view &nr=113 &type=8&menu=41&template=356. (Accessed 24 June 2011).

4

United Nations Economic and Social Council; Economic Commission for Africa. 2011. A Green Economy in the Context of Sustainable Development: What are the implications for Africa? Meeting of the Committee of Experts of the 4th Joint Annual Meetings of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 24 – 27 March 2011. pp.1. http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ research _products/Green Economy Africa: Background Report%20Final.pdf. (Accessed 12 June 2012).

5

Slaper, T.F. and Krause, R.A. 2009. The Green Economy: What Does Green Mean?. Indiana Business Review. Vol. 84, No. 3, p.10–13. http://rainforests.mongabay.com/ deforestation/2000/Uganda.htm

6

United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). 2011. The Green Economy: Pathway to sustainable development and poverty alleviation. Geneva: Switzerland.

7

Nhamo, G. Shava, S. and Togo, M. 2011. The green economy and sustainable development: Towards a common understanding. In G. Nhamo (ED.). Green economy: Topics of relevance to Africa. Pretoria: Africa Institute of South Africa.

8

European Environment Agency. 2012. Ecosystem resilience and resource efficiency in a green economy in Europe. Environmental Indicator Report 2012. European Environment Agency: Copenhagen.

9

European Environment Agency. 2012. pp20.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

10 UNU-INRA. 2011. 11 Rauniyar, G. and Kanbur, R. (2009). Inclusive growth and inclusive development: A review and synthesis of Asian Development Bank literature. Occasional Paper No. 8. Asian Development Bank: Manila. http://www. adb.org /sites/default/files/OP8inclusive-growth-development.pdf. (Accessed 26 June 2012). P3. 12 Greenfield, O., Rosemberg, A. and Timmer, V. 2012. Principals for a Green Economy. UNEP GC Major Groups and Regions Workshop, 18th February, 2012. http://greeneconomycoalition.org/sites/greeneconomy coalition.org/files/9%20Principles%20for%20a%20 green%20economy%20%28DRAFT%20for%20CONSULTATION%29.pdf. (Accessed 26 June 2012). 13 Global Transition . 2012. Seven Principles Inspiring the Green Economy. http://globaltransition2012.org/ 2012/01/seven-principles-inspiring-the-green-economy. (Accessed 26 June 2012). 14 Stoddart, H., Riddlestone, S. and Vilela, M. 2012. Principles for the Green Economy: A collection of principles for the green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication. Developed by the Stakeholder Forum in collaboration 122

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15 GreenEconomics.net (Undated). What is the Green Economy? http://www.greeneconomics.net/what2f.htm. (Accessed 26 June 2012). 16 Irwin A. 2012. Africa: OECD launches ‘Green Economy’ consultation with developing countries. 18 June 2012. http://allafrica.com/stories/201206190934.html. (Accessed 20 June 2012). 17 World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). 1983. Our common future. http://www.are.admin.ch/themen/nachhaltig. (Accessed 21 May 2012). 18 Report of the World Summit on Sustainable Development Johannesburg, South Africa, 26 August– 4 September 2002.http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/html/documents/ summit_ docs/131302wssd_reportreissued.pdf. (Accessed 19 July 2012).

EMBRACING THE GREEN ECONOMY

with Bioregional and the Earth Charter Initiative. Earth Summit 2012. http://www. stakeholderforum.org/fileadmin/files/Principles%20FINAL%20LAYOUT.pdf. (Accessed 26 June 2012).

19 United Nations. 2012. The future we want. Outcome document of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, Rio+20. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 20–22 June 2012. http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N12/381/64/PDF/N1238164.pdf ?Open Element. (Accessed 26 June 2012). Item 56, p9. 20 Kuhne, S., Nuss, S., Muzzupappa, A. and Thimmel, S. 2012. ‘Beautiful Green World: On the Myths of a Green Economy’. Luxemburg Argumente. Rosa Luxemburg Foundation. Berlin. Green economy: Imperialist recipe for sustainable exploitation. 21 Ibid. 22 FAO. 2010. Global Forest Resource Assessment Report. http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/ i1757e/i1757e.pdf. (Accessed 21 June 2012). 23 UNEP. 2008. Green jobs. Towards decent work in a sustainable, low-carbon world: Policy messages and main findings for decision makers. UNEP: Nairobi. Page 5 24 UNEP 2008, p1. 25 Whole Building Design Guide Sustainable Committee. 2012. Optimize energy use. http://www.wbdg.org/ design/minimize_consumption.php. (Accessed 18 June 2012).

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26 Olgay, V. 2006.Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through green building design. Aspen Climate Action Conference, October 11–13th. Rocky Mountain Institute. http:// www.sustainableconferences.com/resources/ Victor+Olgyay$2C+Efficient+Buildings+ Workshop+101306.pdf. (Accessed 15 August 2011). 27 Ford, J. 2009. Carbon neutral paper fact or fiction?: A report on the greenhouse gas emissions of paper products. Asheville: Environmental Paper Network. http://www. canopyplanet.org/uploads/EPN_CNPaper FINAL.pdf. (Accessed 21 August 2011). 28 Lauber, J. D. 2005. The burning issues of municipal solid waste disposal – What works and what doesn’t. Invited presentation at the Toronto City Council Municipal Solid Waste Conference: Advances in Processes and Programs, May 12, 2005. http://www. seas.columbia.edu/earth/wtert/sofos/Lauber_presentation_Toronto _May12–05.pdf. (Accessed 18 June 2012). 29 UNEP.Undated.Climate change and waste – gas emissions from waste disposal. http:// www.grida.no/ publications/vg/waste/page/2871.aspx. (Accessed 18 June 2012). 30 Ibid. 31 Ibid.

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32 OECD and UNEP. Undated.Older gasoline vehicles in developing countries and economies in transition: Their importance and the policy options for addressing them. United Nations: Paris. 33 Ibid. 34 Ibid. 35 UNEP. 2009. Global green new deal: An update on the G20 Pittsburgh Summit. Nairobi: UNEP. 36 UNEP. 2011. Agriculture: Investing in natural capital. UNEP. Advance copy, online release. http://www. unep.org /greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ger/GER_2_ Agriculture.pdf. (Accessed 18 June 2012). 37 Ibid. 38 UNEP. 2011. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to sustainable development and poverty eradication. A synthesis for policymakers. Nairobi: UNEP. 39 UNEP2011, p22. 40 Ibid. 41 Ibid. 42 FAO. 2006. Better Forestry: Less Poverty. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/009/ a0645e/a06 45e04.pdf .p.1.(Accessed 18 June 2012). 43 Eliasch, J. 2008. Climate Change: Financing Global Forests. The Eliasch Review: UK. http://www.official documents.gov.uk/document/other (Accessed 15 May 2012). 44 UNESCO, (2001), Securing the Food Supply: World Water Assessment Program. http:// www.unesco.org/ water/wwap/wwdr/pdf/chap8.pdf. (Accessed 7 July 2012). p192–93. 45 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Working Group III Report: Mitigation of Climate Change. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ assessmentreport/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-chapter8.pdf. (Accessed 1 August 2012). p 499. 46 UNEP 2011, p59. 47 The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: An Interim Report. TEEB – The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity. 2008. European Commission: Brussels. 48 BUKO (The German Federal Coordination of Internationalism) 2012. After the failure of

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the Green Economy: 10 theses for the critique of the Green Economy. http://www.buko. info/fileadmin/user_upload/buko34/neu/BUKO34-Gesnat-Thesen-EN-Web-A4-V2.pdf. 49 Hezria, A. and Ghazalib, R. 2011. Social Aspects of the Green Economy Goal in Malaysia: Studies of Agriculture, Renewable Energy, and Waste Initiatives UNRISD: Geneva. p16. 50 UNCSD (United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development). 2012. The Green Economy and sustainable development: Bringing back the social dimension. http:// www.uncsd2012.org/index.php. (Accessed 25 August 2012). 51 BUKO 2012, p3. 52 UNCSD 2012. 53 BUKO 2012, p3. 54 BUKO 2012, p4. 55 Kuhne et al 2012, p9. 56 Kuhne et al 2012, p38. 57 Kuhne et al 2012, p25.

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Muchaiteyi Togo and Martin Kaggwa

CHAPTER 8

The implications of a transition to a green economy in the African context

INTRODUCTION

M

ost African economies depend on primary industries that thrive on extraction and collection of natural resources for economic activities. Agriculture, mining and tourism are some of the major

industries. Sustaining Africa’s natural resources is therefore of paramount importance to the continent’s development. The continent itself is endowed with a rich natural resource base, which presents it with diverse opportunities for development. However, despite the resource endowment, Africa remains the poorest region in the world. This is due to a number of threats to sustainable development in many African nations, including extreme poverty, worsening climatic conditions, HIV/AIDS and other environmental diseases, food insecurity and deforestation. Due to these threats, the promise of sustainable development is still far from being realised in Africa, there is a need to overcome them. Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Current sustainability difficulties are compounded by new emerging challenges that exacerbate the poor state of development of many nations on the continent. Through international discourse, many strategies have been devised to counteract sustainability challenges – one of the recent ones being the green growth path suggested by the United Nations Environment Programme1 (UNEP) and conceptualised in the notion of a green economy. The concept of a green economy was coined in response to the 2008 global financial meltdown. The question that this chapter is raising is whether the green economy concept presents Africa with the much-needed answer to its age-old development paradox, bearing in mind that numerous strategies over the years (both at global and local levels) have not yielded the desired outcome. While the chapter does not present a clear cut response to this question, it draws information on environmental resources and sustainable development

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challenges in Africa from available literature and from current debates on the green economy to explore some of the concerns and implications for a green economy in Africa. The chapter first highlights some of the major sustainable development challenges in Africa. It then discusses green economy definitions, interpretations and concerns/uncertainties before outlining green economic initiatives in some developing countries. The last section probes the implications for a green economy on the continent in light of Africa’s sustainable development challenges.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT REALITIES IN AFRICA Africa possesses vast natural resources which, if developed, could meet the development requirements of the continent. For a number of reasons, however, most of these resources have not been fully developed. As a result, Africa remains rich in resources but poor in terms of economic development. Development challenges in the region derive from the social environment, the political situation, governmentality and failed policies, among other factors. Without going into much detail, Table 8.1 summarises some of Africa’s resource endowments and the development challenges and/or unfulfilled developmental needs.

Table 8.1. Some of Africa’s natural resource endowments versus unfulfilled development needs

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Resource endowments

126

Development challenges/ unfulfilled development needs

Africa has enough land resources to produce sufficient food for its people

–1 in every 3 people in the region is undernourished and more than 40% of the people in Sub-Saharan Africa are food insecure – Governments often depend on food imports or humanitarian aid

The continent has significant freshwater resources for irrigated agriculture

–Physically accessing the water is a challenge –Inadequate investment in appropriate technology limits irrigation expansion

There are vast mineral resources in Africa as follows: t
77% of the world’s platinum t
62% of the world’s aluminium silicate t
50% of the world’s vanadium and vermiculite t
40% of the world’s diamonds, palladium and chromium t
20% of the world’s gold, cobalt, uranium etc.

–There is high exportation of mineral resources –The industrial base in the mineral sectors in Africa remains poorly developed and is artisanal and small scale in nature –There is a lack of downstream processing to add value

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

The continent only contributes 4% annually to the global tourist industry

Africa’s forests host the largest proportion of the world’s reservoir of genetic materials

Poor natural re-source management has resulted in rapid degradation or loss of genetic resources involving indigenous food crops, useful plants and animals, water and land

There is an abundant human resource base in the continent

–Poor educational quality and shortage of relevant skills is a concern in some countries. –The human resource base is faced with HIV/AIDS threats –Due to uncompetitive salaries, there has been massive brain drain to developed countries from some African countries. Source: Based on UNEP2;3 and the United Nations University Institute for Natural Resources in Africa.4

The continent possesses enough potential for hydro-electric power, although unevenly distributed, to meet its population’s electricity needs. Only a fraction of this potential has been developed and in sub-Saharan Africa 547 million people do not have electricity.5 The main source of energy in rural areas is biomass and in sub-Saharan Africa more than 80 per cent of people rely on traditional biomass energy for cooking.6 There is also potential for wind energy, which is hardly harnessed except in a few countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. African countries have sunlight all year round and this endows the continent with solar energy as another free and clean energy resource that the region can tap into for its energy needs.7 To some extent, solar energy is being harnessed but much more can be done – resources permitting. A host of setbacks constrain the development of Africa’s resource endowments, among them governance, poverty, HIV/AIDS and political instability. Regarding governance, UNEP8 argues that a major achievement in the re-

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

Africa is endowed with numerous tourist attractions ranging from wildlife to cultural heritage

gion was the transformation from colonial rule to independent governance Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

across the whole continent. At present, however, environmental governance is not yet effective and this is blamed on policy failure, among other factors.9 This has a huge negative impact on the way resources are used and managed, which is evident through general environmental degradation and loss of forests (among other effects). Extreme and abject poverty is one of the major threats to sustainable development in many African countries. In 2008 the World Bank announced a poverty line of $1.25 a day,10 yet research puts the proportion of people living below $1 a day in sub-Saharan Africa at 41 per cent.11 Extreme poverty leaves the people of Africa, most of whom live in rural areas, with few survival options and therefore they highly depend on natural resources. Some of the survival strategies among the poor ( to the detriment of environmental well-being), both at present and in the future, were identified as cutting down trees for fuel wood, land-degrading farming systems and

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excessive hunting of wildlife.12 According to UNU-INRA,13 Africa had the “second highest net annual loss of forest” (amounting to 3.4 million hectares) between 2000 and 2010. The HIV/AIDS pandemic is also affecting the pace of development. In 2002, FAO14 estimated that about 70 per cent of the 42 million people infected with HIV/AIDS globally were in Africa and that more than 25 million people had succumbed to the disease, leaving 12 million children orphaned. The available human resource base, the educated, those with relevant skills and experience, are all at risk.15 This situation is further aggravated by the presence of environmental diseases like malaria, with Africa accounting for 90 per cent of malaria deaths.16 Political instability, wars and violence in some African regions (Sudan, Somalia and Uganda etc.) have resulted in displacement of people from their country of origin. Many of these people rely directly on land for their livelihood, predominantly from subsistence agriculture. Displaced people are stripped of their means of production and way of life. In destination regions, some migrants end up in refugee camps or are integrated into local communities, but in both cases they compete for resources and the means of production with local people, which sometimes result in social instabilitu. In Zimbabwe, there was a mass exodus of the economically people due to political unrest and the associated economic downturn. This drained the country of its human resource base, compromising many social systems, like education and health, while creating social unrest in South Africa (e.g. the xenophobic attacks of 2008), which is one of the main destinations. Wars divert human and material resources that could be used for development purposes.17 Despite significant environmental degradation in Africa, the continent has the lowest carbon footprint compared to other world regions and pro-

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

duces only 4 per cent of carbon emissions.18 However, because environmental challenges – like global warming and climate change, which result from green house gas emissions – know no boundaries, Africa is already being affected by worsening climatic conditions and this has a negative impact on agricultural productivity and food security. With a naturally highly diverse and highly variable climate, ranging from extremely arid deserts to extremely humid regions of the rainforests, Africa has been identified as one of the regions that are most vulnerable to climate change.19 Climatic variations have already been noted to be affecting the continent’s biodiversity resources and human activities, with environmental diseases like Malaria, droughts, etc. also being blamed on climate change.20 This situation is worsened by a low capacity to respond to the effects of climate change and by the prevalence of other sustainable development challenges21 128

discussed before.

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drought food insecurity, lack of infrastructure, education quality and issues of educational access. These challenges limit people’s choices, leading to over-reliance on natural resources. In addition, extraction of resources, like minerals, is not necessarily accompanied by appropriate or adequate restoration practices. Consequently, there has been over-exploitation of some resources, like rangelands and fish stocks in some localities.22 As revealed in this section, Africa’s environmental challenges are mostly a result of socio-economic realities in the region. In theory, the transition to a green economy offers the continent an opportunity to address both the economic and ecological situation. However, there are considerations specific to the region that should be taken into account so that the transition will not leave the majority of African people in a worse socio-economic situation. The next section discusses challenges of implementation in Africa amid the discussed development challenges of the continent.

THE CONTESTED AIMS OF THE GREEN ECONOMY The major dilemma for Africa is how to harness its development potential to fulfill socio-economic needs, through implementing green economic activities without compromising the well-being of its people. Contradictions have been noted in the mechanisms proposed for achieving a green economy. Ivan Turok, the Deputy Executive Director at the Human Science Research Council in South Africa, pointed out contradictions in mechanisms such as markets and pricing, government subsidies and regulation, government investment, capacity building, and stakeholder partnerships and

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

Other challenges in the region include a high population growth rate,

collaboration.23 Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Controversies also exist regarding the aim of a green economy concept and its implications, particularly to poor economies. These controversies are evidenced by protests, by indigenous peoples and environmental groups at the Rio+20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro (2012). They argued that the main aim of the concept was “to maximize profits in the destruction of the global environment, without truly addressing the consequences of environmental degradation and people’s welfare”.24 Amid the development of carbon, water and biodiversity markets questions that are being paused include: “Can nature really be sold to save it? Is this compatible with poverty-reducing sustainable development?”25 These questions are being asked in relation to roll-out of the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) scheme. It is feared that the REDD scheme will strip local forest users of their rights and access to natural resources and exacerbate their daily livelihood struggle. The REDD

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mechanism is also criticised for allowing/enabling polluters “to evade their responsibility to reduce carbon emission levels by opting for the often cheaper alternative of ‘compensating’ their emissions by buying credits from carbon stored in forests”.26 To cite an example, a company with British capital is said to be currently negotiating a lease of 15 million hectares, translating to 19 per cent of the target country’s surface, with specific interests on carbon stocks that can be traded in the emerging carbon markets.27 If such a negotiation is successful, local people will be left with no claim to that land. At the same time, the long term economic benefits that will accrue from carbon trading will not benefit the local economy. It is against policy strategies like REDD that the green economy agenda is being duped “a commodification of nature and the rights of local communities to democratic access to land, water resources, finance and infrastructure”.28 In developing economies, there are still fears that a green economy agenda might result in the imposition of economic adjustments by the developed world, the creation of new trade barriers that would not be conducive to developing countries, as well as concerns that it might result in a “corporate takeover of their natural resources”.29 The lease negotiation mentioned above is an example of how corporate takeover of resources in developing countries can happen. In terms of specific objectives of the green economy, there are concerns that some may not be of benefit to developing countries, particularly in Africa. The subsequent points discuss such concerns, but with specific reference to three anticipated positive outcomes of the green economy in Africa, i.e, job creation, increased trade and poverty alleviation.

THE GREEN ECONOMY AND JOB CREATION Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

One of the strong and appealing reasons for conceptualising a green economy is that of employment creation. It is also argued that new green jobs will be attractive and pay well. In support of this argument is shifting the CO2 reduction goal of the European Union by 10 per cent – from 20 per cent to 30 per cent – could create six million more jobs in Europe.30 With high unemployment rates in many countries in Africa, the promise of employment creation via implementation of a green economy is a strong motivation for their involvement in green economic activities. The question here is to what extent is this assumption true and possible for developing countries? Many people are already employed in the green economic sector in developed countries. In Germany, for example, 230 000 people worked in the conventional energy sector, while more than 366 000 people worked in the area of renewable energy in 2010,31 which shows the role of clean technolo130

gies in job creation. According to a report by the German Federal Ministry

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

goods and services related to ecology. The workforce in the environmental sector grew by an average of 14 per cent from 2005 to 2007. In simple terms, such employment data demonstrates that a green economy can potentially create more jobs that are also green; however, this may not necessarily be true for African countries, given their low levels of development and poor technological development. The creation of green jobs is more likely going to be skewed in favour of developed countries. This factor is demonstrated in Table 8.3, which shows selected estimates for national employment in renewable energy.

Table 8.3: National employment estimates in selected renewable energy technologies Estimated employment worldwide

Selected national estimates Denmark Germany

Technology Biofuels Wind power Solar hot water Solar PV Biomass power Hydropower Geothermal Biogas Solar thermal power Total

>1,500,00 ~630,000 ~300,000 350,000 – –

24,000

– – ~15,000

100,000 120,000 120,000

Italy

Japan

Spain

US 85,000

26,000 5,000 7,000

40,000 7,000 14,000 66,000 8,000

28,000

13,00 20,000

Brazil

China

730,000 14,000 150,000 250,000 17,000 120,000

India 10,000

9,000 1,000

1,000

>3,500,000 Source: REN21.33

Germany is likely to be one of the most successful countries in greening the

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

for the Environment Report,32 every twentieth job in Germany depends on

economy. However, there are other challenges to be overcome, including bad Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

working conditions and low levels of union organisation. Many mediumsized companies have no collective agreement. In the case of biogas producers, collective agreements are in effect in only 14 per cent of plants, in the solar branch it is 15 per cent, in wind power, by contrast, it is already 53 per cent. Working conditions are generally the same in its green economic sectors and other sectors, with some of the challenges with green jobs being limited income prospects, lack of training opportunities and an increase in sub-contracted labour.34 The shift from ordinary to green technologies has an inherent labour displacement effect to the detriment of less skilled and older workers. For those currently employed in specific parts of the chemical and energy sector, for example, a structural transformation to green technologies or renewable energies does not mean an automatic shift of their jobs to the new green production processes within the same sector. The process is likely to

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be accompanied by structural job losses. Without suitable accompanying measures to curb job losses as a result of the transition, conversion to green production may not be socially just. This makes the benefit of employment creation questionable, as employees are at risk of becoming dispensable and at the mercy of corporate management. The concept of a green economy seems to strengthen policies of liberalisation, privatisation, deregulation and denationalisation. In developing economies, this is likely to culminate in an unprecedented era of global land-grab, food crisis and joblessness, etc., especially among low skilled people. The green economy is also likely to further push the wages of these low skilled average workers in developing countries to rock bottom levels and to result in drastic cuts in social services, while providing tax holidays, juicy contracts, subsidies and grand bailouts to foreign corporations if one considers the effects of previous liberalisation policies in Africa.35 A trend of poorly paid work contracts without social security benefits and the substitution of fixed salaries with variable salaries, with the aim of maximising profits, has been observed in some jobs in the green economy.36 This compromises social security among people, hence the need to question the relations of domination rooted in the division of labour in implementing a green economy. To sum up this argument, the creation of jobs through implementing a green economy, in the short term, is more feasible among developed countries, which already have fairly high levels of skills, than in African countries. In the long term, however, it will depend on how fast developing countries acquire the relevant skills needed to be effective in a green

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economy.

GREEN ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE There are concerns regarding the amount of money developed countries have put in place in the form of subsidies and incentives to support green economic activities. The US for example budgeted more than US$112 billion dollars for the period 2009–2012 as a Green Fund (Table 8.4). While China’s budget is much more than that (more than US$200 billion), many developing nations have not been able to raise such huge amounts of money. This scenario raised suspicion among developing countries that support for green production may become another guise to continue with unfair subsidies that benefit producers in developed countries, disadvantaging those in developing countries. 132

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Country

Total Green Fund ($ billions)

Green Fund as % of GDP

Effective Period

EU

22.8

0.1

2009 – 2012

US

112.2

0.8

2009 – 2019

UK

2.1

0.1

2009 – 2012

Canada

2.6

0.2

2009 – 2013

China

200.8

4.8

2009 – 2010

Japan

12.4

0.3

2009+ Source: Nhamo and Nhamo.37

A report by a panel of experts to the Second Preparatory Committee Meeting for the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (2012) summarises trade risks associated with a move to a green economy as captured in Box 2. Box 2: The risk of using the environment for trade protection “There is a risk that the environment, and by implication the ‘green economy’, can be inappropriately made use of by countries for trade protectionist purposes, and that in particular developed countries may use this as a principle or concept to justify unilateral trade measures against the products of developing countries. One example are the proposals or plans to impose a “carbon tariff” or “border adjustment tax” on products on the ground that these generated emissions of carbon dioxide during the production process above a certain level, or that the exporting country does not have emission controls of a standard deemed adequate by the importing country. Developing countries are strongly opposed to such trade measures, which are seen as protectionist. This would penalise developing countries that do not have financial resources or access to low-emission technologies, and thus violate the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities”.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

Table 8.4: Green fiscal support for selected developed countries

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Source: UNCSD, 2012.38

Increased trade is a major conduit and contributor to national economic growth. However, ‘green’ policy measures may negatively affect national efforts to reduce poverty in many African countries through their adverse effects on external trade efforts by these countries. The challenge that policy makers face, therefore, is how to move African economies toward a green economy, while at the same time sustaining their poverty reduction efforts through increased trade.

THE GREEN ECONOMY AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION Proponents of the green economy claim that it has the potential to reduce poverty among developing countries in general. They postulate a positive

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relationship between a green economy and national poverty alleviation, although this may not always be direct. The reasoning behind this postulation is that for poverty to be eliminated in the long term, economies should produce goods and services using the country’s natural resource stocks in a sustainable manner, that is, taking due care not to cause adverse effects on the environment. Without taking such care, poverty will otherwise only be alleviated in the short-term when there are still ample resources to support job creation activities. If production is not sustainable, created jobs would not last as a result of declining natural resource pools. Green economic interventions should ensure that there are processes in place to regenerate resources being exploited while at the same time mitigating against any other adverse environment effects emanating from the same economic activities. A theoretical framework linking a green economy and poverty alleviation is presented in Figure 8.1.

Figure 8.1: Linking green economy and poverty alleviation Country Resource stock including the Environment

+ Resource Regeneration

Green Economy Interventions

–

Technology National Economic Activities

+ Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Resource Use

Employment and Poverty Alleviation Source: Authors

The relationship between a green economy and poverty reduction is also contested because of the sweeping assumptions it makes. For example, Figure 8.1 just assumes that a green economy will be accompanied by mechanisms to replenish the natural resource base without consideration of any possible adverse effects. However successful the implementation of a green economy may be, it is very unlikely that it will always enable a match between resource depletion with resource regeneration. To an extent, there will always be a mismatch that will have some effect on the environment. Unless con134

scious effort is made by developing countries to make sure that the goal of

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

the framework in Figure 8.1, the green economy may not necessarily translate into or support existing efforts to alleviate poverty on the continent.

EXAMPLES OF GREEN ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES Despite the concerns and controversies discussed above, countries worldwide, including some developing countries, are already embarking on green economic projects. Key sectors currently being targeted are among those identified by UNEP39 as critical for intervention in the green economy. These include: ■

energy efficiency in old and new buildings;

■

renewable energy technologies, such as wind, solar, geothermal and biomass technologies;

■

sustainable transport technologies, such as hybrid vehicles, high speed rail and bus rapid transit systems;

■

the planet’s ecological infrastructure, including freshwater, forests, soils and coral reefs; and

■

sustainable agriculture, including organic production.

UNEP also recommended that a significant portion of the economic stimulus packages, meant to revive the global economy following the 2008 economic meltdown, be invested in the aforementioned sectors. By 2009 some countries had invested part of their economic stimulus package in some of

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the identified sectors, as indicated in Table 8.2.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

poverty alleviation is not addressed in a simplistic manner, as presented in

Table 8.2: Areas of investment for green stimulus packages in selected countries by 2009 SECTOR Rail Grid Energy efficient buildings Water/waste Low carbon vehicles Renewable energy Transport Energy efficiency others

China √ √ √ √ √

France

√

COUNTRIES Germany Mexico

Korea

√

√

South Africa √

√

√

√ √

√

√

√

√ √ √ √

√

USA √ √

√ √ √ √

√

√ Source: Based on UNEP.40;41

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The table gives a general overview of the sectors that were, for various reasons, prioritised by the concerned national economies from among those identified by UNEP as key to a green economy. However, the data employed in developing the table is limited in that it is only based on the allocation of the 2009 economic stimulus packages. Some countries started implementing initiatives that promote a green economy agenda even before it was conceptualised. New initiatives also continue to emerge. In Africa and other developing nations worldwide, countries are embarking on a diversity of green economic initiatives. Box 1 is a summary of some of the green economic activities in developing countries. Box 1: A summary of some of the green economic activities in developing countries

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Waste Management in the Republic of Korea: The Korean government implemented the “Extended Producer Responsibility” (EPR) system in 2003 which requires manufacturers and importers to recycle a certain amount of their products. Five years after implementation, 6.067 million tons of waste was recycled at a financial benefit of over US $1.6 billion. In 2008, a total of 69,213 tons of plastic products were recycled, at an economic benefit of around $69 million. From 2003-2006, the EPR system created 3,200 new jobs and opened the door for new businesses. Recycling reduces annual CO2 emissions by an average of 412,000 tons. Approximately 23,532 tons of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) from plastic landfill or incineration are also prevented. Korea’s Landfill Gas Recovery Project is a major Clean Development Mechanism project, with a capacity of 50 MWh and a production of 363,259 MWh in 2009. This Metropolitan Landfill Power Plant already reduced CO2 emission by 0.4 million tons between April and November 2007. It is expected to further reduce a total of 7 million tons of CO2 between April 2007 and April 2017. During the same ten-year period, the plant is also expected to save Korea $126 million. The plant also allowed Korea to reduce its oil imports by 530 thousand barrels in 2009. Organic agriculture in Uganda: Shortage of fertilizer in Uganda was harnessed into an opportunity to pursue organic agriculture. By 2003, Uganda had the world’s 13th-largest land area under organic agriculture production and the most in Africa. Land under organic farming grew from 185,000 ha (more than 2 % of agricultural land) in 2004, with 45,000 certified farmers, to, 296,203 hectares by 2007 with 206,803 certified farmers. The global market for organic foods and drinks is estimated to be around US$50 billion, and increased by 10- 20 per cent annually between 2000 and 2007. Its certified organic exports increased from US$3.7 million in 2003/4, to US$6.2 million in 2004-2005, before jumping to US$22.8 million in 2007/8. Through organic farming, Uganda also contributes to mitigating climate change, as GHG emissions per ha are estimated to be on average 64 per cent lower than emissions from conventional farms. Various studies have shown that organic fields sequester 3–8 tonnes more carbon per ha than conventional agriculture. Sustainable urban planning in Brazil: The city of Curitiba employed innovative approaches in urban planning which enabled it to grow in population from 361,000 (in 1960) to 1.828 million (in 2008), without experiencing typical drawbacks from congestion, pollution and reduction of public space. A choice for growth in a ‘radial linear-branching pattern’ served to protect both density and green areas. Through a combination of land-use zoning and provision of public transport infrastructure, it enabled a diversion of traffic from the city centre and the development of housing, services and industrial locations along the radial axes. As a result, Curitiba has the highest rate of public transport use in Brazil (45 per cent of journeys), but one of the country’s lowest rates of urban air pollution. Fuel usage is 30 per cent lower than in Brazil’s other major cities and per capita loss due to time spent in severe 136

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Renewable energy in South Africa: South Africa has abundant coal resources which are used to generate about 95 per cent of its electricity, placing it in the top 20 worst emitters of greenhouse gases. The government has pledged to reduce emissions and its energy plan envisages renewable power contributing 42 per cent of new generation capacity by 2030. The energy plan has already provided new openings for the private sector in wind and solar power, as the government has begun to approve licenses for independent producers as part of its plans to add 3,750MW of renewable energy by 2016. Exxaro Resources, a mining and minerals consortium has therefore recently formed an energy company that will generate power using a combination of renewable and cleaner energy. The energy company is in prefeasibility for a number of projects with key renewables and/cleaner energy options being explored including wind, solar, co-generation, gas, coal base load and bio fuels. Natural cooling and heating in Harare, Zimbabwe: The Eastgate Shopping Centre is located in downtown Harare. By design, ventilation and cooling is entirely by natural means. The building stores heat in the day. In the evening and at night the warm internal air is vented through chimneys, assisted by fans but also rising naturally, drawing in denser cool air at the bottom of the building. This system, based on a mechanical or “passive” cooling system, replaces artificial air-conditioning. The Eastgate Centre uses less than 10 percent of the energy of a conventional building of its size. These efficiencies translate directly to the bottom line: Eastgate’s owners have saved US$3.5 million because no air-conditioning system had to be implemented. The energy efficiency benefits also trickle down to the tenants whose rents are 20 percent lower than those of occupants in the surrounding buildings. Sources: Based on: UNEP42;43; England44; Togo45; www.inhabitat.com46

Box 1 highlights initiatives implemented both in Africa and in the context other developing countries outside the African context. This was done purposefully to showcase some good quality initiatives that African nations

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

congestion in Curitiba is approximately 11 and 7 times less than in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Areas vulnerable to flooding were turned into parks planted with many trees, and artificial lakes were created to hold floodwaters. The cost of this strategy, including the relocation costs of slum dwellers, is estimated to be five times less than building concrete canals. Curitiba has also promoted waste management infrastructure and public awareness on waste separation and recycling. With 70 per cent of the city’s residents actively recycling, 13 per cent of solid waste is recycled in Curitiba.

could emulate. Some of the initiatives were implemented to address existCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

ing national sustainability challenges. Countries should be in a position to prioritise the options available to them, considering their sustainable development realities. There are, however, many issues to be considered before implementation of green economic initiatives, including the importance of the identified areas to national economies, availability of finance, the availability of relevant skills, etc. Local initiatives are also emerging as important areas of consideration in implementing a green economy agenda in developing countries. The significance of local initiatives is that they involve local people who are in most cases not well-educated to get formal jobs. They therefore help in employment creation as well as promoting good environmental stewardship. Examples of local initiatives are those being implemented as part of the Supporting Entrepreneurs for Sustainable Development (SEED) Initiative.47 The SEED Initiative, founded by UNEP, UNDP and IUCN at the 2002 World

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Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, is a global partnership for action on sustainable development and a green economy. It supports the scaling up and replication of innovative small-scale and locally driven entrepreneurships which integrate social and environmental benefits into their business model; enhancing the contributions of these entrepreneurs to local economies and communities while promoting sustainable management of natural resources and ecosystems and reducing poverty, marginalisation and exclusion. A few examples of SEED initiatives48 include: ■

Producing and marketing bamboo and other non-timber forest products (Ghana)

■

Production of fuel briquettes from groundnut shells and the use of fuel-efficient stoves (Gambia)

■

Use of recycled materials and invasive species from wetlands to create hand-made products (Kenya)

■

Drawing on traditional knowledge to harvest, process and market Marula tree products in a sustainable manner (Zimbabwe)

■

Collecting, sorting and recycling plastic waste (Tanzania)

■

Reusing waste charcoal as biochar (Senegal).

These initiatives are small-scale, local and have low capital costs. What underscores their importance is the fact that they develop environmental consciousness among local people, enhancing their capacity to sustainably use and manage their resources. They also employ low cost technology and make use of available resources; and are within what the local people know and understand. They represent recontextualisation of the concept of a green economy in local environments among the rural poor of Africa, who Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

are often blamed for destroying the environment.

IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN AFRICA The main challenge Africa faces is to overcome the constraints which resulted in under-development of its resources over time. The same constraints will be an impediment in the transition to a green economy. The other challenge for Africa is to consider the effects of any form of development to its environment which, in some regions, is fragile. Ignoring the effects of development can have a huge negative impact on the continent, which could potentially cripple the future development of Africa. While a number of suggestions were made as to how countries can adopt and imple138

ment a green economy, it is necessary to discuss its implications in the

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

geographical nature of sustainable development challenges. Addressing Africa’s complex array of challenges calls for complex responses The question is: Is the green economy concept complex enough to adequately address Africa’s multi-dimensional sustainable development challenges? Given the challenges of low levels of development, poverty, inequalities and the fact that many people survive by directly appropriating natural resources from the environment, a “pro-poor, socially-inclusive and natural resource-driven Green Economy”50 will be necessary on the continent, as it offers the opportunity to address these multi-challenges holistically. The following items suggest some of the practical ways that African countries can engage in in implementing green economic activities.

POLICY AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT A sound policy and regulatory environment, both in Africa and at international level, is also necessary in implementing a green economy. In Africa, a prolonged development path is partly blamed on policy failure. There is a need for developing effective policies to enable the implementation of a green economy at international levels, which can be translated into national policies at country level. In Africa, such policies should recognise the plight of poor people, who are involved in various economic activities that depend directly on the environment; otherwise the transition to a green economy may increase poverty levels on the continent due to a shift in economic activities.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

context of Africa, as a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach may not work49 due to the

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PUBLIC AWARENESS, CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT, TRAINING AND EDUCATION Public understanding and awareness are key to policy success. Apart from informing the public of policy initiatives, public awareness develops the understanding of new concepts and benefits and therefore enhances acceptance of new initiatives.51 UNEP52 mentioned the need for capacity development, training and education to enhance the readiness of economies in the transition to a green economy. Training and skills development is necessary whenever new industries and new jobs are created. In the transition to a green economy, such changes are bound to take place; for example, a shift from non-renewable energy (e.g. coal) to a renewable source (wind, solar, etc.) would mean a need for employees to acquire new skills or they risk becoming irrelevant in the new economic order. Africa will have to develop capacity among its people to be effective in a green economy.

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REDEFINING THE CONCEPT AND CHOOSING APPROPRIATE APPROACHES ACCORDING TO NATIONAL PRIORITIES The ultimate responsibility of transition to a green economy should lie with countries (a country-driven approach). For African countries, this is crucial due to the diversity of sustainable development challenges faced in different regions. Countries should re-define the concept of a green economy in line with their development needs to enable them to identify key national sectors and priority challenges in implementing green economy activities. Each country will then be able to choose appropriate tools and approaches, in accordance with national priorities, objectives and circumstances, while also observing international law.53 South Africa, for example, defined a green economy as a “system of economic activities related to the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services that result in improved human well-being over the long term, while not exposing future generations to significant environmental risks or ecological scarcities”.54 Priorities for the country were then defined as: ■

green buildings and the built environment;

■

sustainable transport and infrastructure;

■

clean energy and energy efficiency;

■

resource conservation and management;

■

sustainable waste management practices

■

agriculture, food production and forestry;

■

water management;

■

sustainable consumption and production; and

■

environmental sustainability, which includes: (i) greening events as well as green or responsible tourism; and (ii) research, awareness

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and skills development and knowledge management.55 In re-defining the concept, African countries should give priority to ensuring poverty eradication, making sure that the interests of the poor and indigenous communities are considered and that the basic needs of the people will be met in a manner that does not compromise ecological integrity.

EMPLOYING A HOLISTIC APPROACH TO A GREEN ECONOMY The concept of a green economy should be considered as one among many facets that can be employed to address sustainable development challenges. Therefore, green economic initiatives should be implemented alongside other sustainable development strategies, otherwise some development chal140

lenges will be marginalised, leaving the goal of sustainable development

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

lenges are inter-connected with the environment in complex ways. There is a need to carefully adopt and adapt the concept of a green economy in a way that does not compromise the well-being of poor people who depend directly on the environment. Countries could also consider promoting local sustainable resource use and management initiatives, like those supported by the SEED Initiative. National ‘Food-for-work’ programmes, implemented among the poor in developing countries like India and Zimbabwe could also be a vehicle for improving the environment and addressing issues of unemployment, poverty and food insecurity. In Zimbabwe, for example, one such programme (with a focus on irrigation) helped with the completion of irrigation schemes, promotion of rainwater harvesting measures and training of farmers in irrigated agricultural production56, while at the same time addressing a number of sustainability issues (like poor irrigation development, food security and access to education, etc.).

STRENGTHENING MECHANISMS FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES One of the challenges that Africa is set to experience in the transition to a green economy is attainment of the necessary economic resources for environmental financing, for creating green jobs and for investing in the required technologies. Already the continent’s GDP is very low and its BOP is not favourable.57 Financial and technical challenges are some of the reasons why vast natural resources remain undeveloped in the region. Many African countries, given current economic challenges, may not be in a posi-

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

unfulfilled. This is crucial in the African environment, where social chal-

tion to set aside meaningful financial resources for environmental financCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

ing. In addition, green economic projects are also condemned for too much reliance on government subsidies rather than a free market. This makes the sustainability of such projects in the long run questionable. More so, with a multitude of pressing needs in Africa, raising subsidies may be a challenge for many nations. It is therefore crucial to strengthen mechanisms at international levels for developed countries to effectively support developing nations. Such mechanisms can be in the form of finance and the transfer of technology and expertise to developing countries. At the Rio+20 Summit, two mechanisms, one for finance and another for technology transfer, were set up to support developing nations in implementing green economic initiatives.58

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RESEARCHING THE EFFECTS OF IMPLEMENTING GREEN ECONOMIC INITIATIVES TO THE POOR UNU-INRA 59 argues that there is potential for rural economies to benefit from a green economy; however, “there is a death of scientific knowledge on how the green economy framework can be used to improve the welfare of the continent’s rural poor”. There is a need for adequate research on the effects of a transition to a green economy on current economic activities and survival strategies among the poor in Africa, and on how to improve human well-being. Since most African economies are dependent on agriculture and most rural people practice subsistence agriculture, it is not yet clear how the green economy will affect subsistence agriculture in developing countries and all those who live off the environment.60 While new opportunities will emerge in the transition, some industries and jobs are bound to disappear. There is a need for further research on such issues to establish how Africa can minimise negative effects and at the same time take full advantage of positive outcomes.

IMPACT ASSESSMENTS AS WELL AS DRAWING LESSONS FROM ECONOMIES PIONEERING A GREEN ECONOMY TO UNDERSTAND THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF ITS IMPLEMENTATION Some green economic activities have been found to have adverse or unintended effects. In the United States, for example, some green buildings were found to consume more energy than conventional buildings.61 This makes it necessary for a thorough environmental impact assessment to be done prior to implementation of green projects. Adopting a life-cycle assessment of green jobs was also found to be helpful in establishing whether or not the jobs are really green in a literal sense. One example cited is the manufacture Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

of wind turbines, which may be classified as ‘green jobs’, yet the business consumes huge quantities of steel.62

CROSS-SECTOR COLLABORATION AND DELIBERATION The green economy concept is multifarious and there is not yet consensus on its meaning, policy implications and usefulness.63 The way it is currently modeled, however, leaves room for improvement, especially in making sure that social sustainability issues are made apparent in the concept. Further deliberations on how to implement green economic initiatives should continue. In these deliberations, countries should take cognisance of the fact that the green economy concept cuts across many sectors of the economy 142

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

mentation, all these should be engaged and should have a stake in generating information on how best it can be done.64

UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF SUBSIDIES IN AFRICA VERSUS THE USE OF MARKET INSTRUMENTS It is argued that the use of market instruments, for example energy and water taxes or tariffs that reflect true costs and the removal of environmentally-harmful subsidies, can result in environmental protection, among other benefits.65

In South Africa, subsidising electricity resulted in in-

creased energy consumption in some communities,66 which increases the country’s ecological impact footprint. The dilemma for Africa is that there is still a need to improve access to electricity and use of market instruments may actually counter such development goals. Still using the South African example, in 2004 the country put in place a policy goal of universal access to electricity by 2012.67 Even though there are uncertainties around that goal, without subsidies it will even be more difficult to achieve as many poor people are not able to pay ‘at cost’ electricity tariffs. There is a need for balancing the goal of a green economy in Africa with other sustainable development objectives to make sure that it does not impede other development priorities on the continent and to fully understand the effects of market instruments on the poor. Africa also needs to re-think how subsidies can be employed to promote the transition to a green economy. One way could be the use of incentives for industries and households to adopt

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energy-efficient technologies.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF A TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY IN THE AFRICAN CONTEXT

(policy making, business, civil society, government). For successful imple-

CONCLUSION Even though the concept of a green economy is still relatively new and there is still a need for further deliberations on its implications, it is, however, a well-intended concept that could result in positive outcomes in terms of sustainable economic development. Its benefits should not be over-looked. Its effectiveness, however, lies in a number of pre-requisites that include: an enabling policy environment, public awareness, education and capacity development. As countries implement a green economy, there is a need for adequate research into its implications in their contexts. There is also a need to locate it within the prevailing sustainable development challenges in different contexts. While Africa can learn from the experience of other nations that have started implementing green economic activities, it is

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important to engage in such initiatives in a holistic manner so that the concept will not get mired by the same attributes of an economic paradigm that sustainable development is running away from.

NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

UNEP. 2009. Global green new deal: An update on the G20 Pittsburgh Summit. Nairobi: UNEP.

2

UNEP. 2008. Land resources in Africa. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Land_resources_ in_Africa. [Accessed 24 June 2011].

3

UNEP. 2009. Global green new deal: An update on the G20 Pittsburgh Summit. Nairobi: UNEP.

4

UNU-INRA. 2011. Africa green economy initiative: Building capacity to promote green growth in Africa. UNU-INRA: Accra. http://www.inra.unu.edu/d1/2011-07-26%20african%20green%20economy%20intiative.pdf. [Accessed 20 June 2012].

5

Shah, A. 2010. Poverty facts and stats. www.globalissues.org/. [Accessed 15 December 2011].

6

Shah, A. 2010.

7

Madamombe, I. 2006. Solar power: cheap energy source for Africa. Africa Renewal. 20(1), pp.10.

8

UNEP. 2008. Mainstreaming Environment and Sustainability in African Universities Partnership: Supporting universities to respond to environment, sustainable development and climate change challenges. Nairobi: UNEP.

9

UNEP. 2008. Land resources in Africa. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Land_resources_ in_Africa. [Accessed 24 June 2011].

10 Shah, A. 2010. 11 The Hunger Project. Undated. Africa. www.thp.org/. [Accessed 15 December 2011].

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

12 A fr icare. 2008. The Challenge of Env ironment ally Sust ainable Development in Africa. http://www.africare.org/news/edits/ChallengeofEnvironmentallySustainable DevelopmentinAfrica.php. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 13 UNU-INRA. 2011. 14 UNEP. 2008. Diseases and development challenges in Africa. In C. J. Cleveland (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Earth. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Diseases_and_development_ challenges_in_Africa. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 15 UNEP. 2008. Land resources in Africa. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Land_resources_ in_Africa. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 16 Shah, A. 2010. 17 UNU-INRA. 2011. 18 UNEP. 2008. Mainstreaming Environment and Sustainability in African Universities Partnership: Supporting universities to respond to environment, sustainable development and climate change challenges. Nairobi: UNEP.

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19 Conway, G. 2009. The science of climate change in Africa: impacts and adaptation. Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Discussion paper No 1. http://workspace.imperial.ac.uk/climatechange/public/pdfs/discussion_papers. [Accessed 9 October 2010].

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21 Case, M. 2006. Climate change impacts on East Africa: A review of the scientific literature. Gland: World Wide Fund for Nature. http://www.wwf.dk/dk/Service/Bibliotek/ Klima/Rapporter+mv./Climate+change+impacts+on+east+africa.pdf. [Accessed 16 December 2008]. 22 UNEP. 2008. Diseases and development challenges in Africa. In C. J. Cleveland (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Earth. http://www.eoearth.org/article/Diseases_and_development_ challenges_in_Africa. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 23 Irwin A. 2012. 24 Uca News. 2012. ‘Green Economy’ sparks protests. ucanews.com reporter, Manila Philippines, June 21, 2012. http://www.ucanews.com/2012/06/21/green-economysparks-protests/. [Accessed 25 June 2012]. 25 Leach M. 2012. The dark side of the green economy: ‘Green grabbing’. Aljazeera. http:// www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/06/201261885431273708.html. [Accessed 25 June 2012]. 26 Overbeek, W. and Mutter, R.N. 2011. The Great Lie: Monoculture Trees as Forests. http:// www.unrisd.org/80256B3C005BE6B5/%28httpNews%29/531DAFFB8B319F69C125792E 00499ED1?OpenDocument. [Accessed 26 June 2012]. 27 Leach, M. 2012. 28 Okafor, J.L. 2012. Nigeria: Rio+20 – Group Warns the Nigeria of Green Economy. Daily Trust, 17 June 2012. http://allafrica.com/stories/201206170366.html. [Accessed 20 June 2011]. (Unpaginated). 29 Irwin. A. 2012. 30 Brand, U. 2012. Beautiful green world: On the myths of a green economy. Luxemburg Argumente. Berlin: Germany 31 Ibid, p14. 32 Ibid. 33 REN21. 2011. Renewables 2011 Global Status Report. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century. Paris.

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20 Economic Commision for Africa. 2001. State of the environment in Africa. http://www. uneca.org/publications/FSSD/EnvironmentReportv3.pdf. [Accessed 24 June 2011].

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34 Brand, U. 2012, p14. 35 BUKO. 2012.10 Theses of a critique of the Green Economy. http://www.buko.info/fileadmin/user_upload/buko34/ neu/ BUKO34-Gesnat-Thesen-EN-Web-A4-V2.pdf. [Accessed 21 May 2012]. 36 Ibid. (Unpaginated). 37 Nhamo, G. and Nhamo, S. Environmental financing through green stimulus packages: Challenges and opportunities. In Nhamo G. (Ed). Green Economy and Climate Mitigation: Topics Relevant to Africa. 2011Africa Institute of South Africa: Pretoria. 38 UNCSD (United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development). 2010. The transition to a green economy: Benefits, challenges and risks from a sustainable development perspective. Report by a panel of Experts tosecond preparatory committee meeting for United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. New York: USA. 17–19 May 2011.pp.72. 39 UNEP. 2009. Global green new deal: An update on the G20 Pittsburgh Summit. Nairobi: UNEP.

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40 UNEP. 2009. Global green new deal: An update on the G20 Pittsburgh Summit. Nairobi: UNEP. 41 UNEP Green Economy Initiative. http://www.unep.org/pdf/G20_policy_brief_Final.pdf. [Accessed 22 June 2012]. 42 UNEP. 2010. Green Economy: Developing countries success stories. Nairobi: UNEP. 43 UNEP. 2009. Global green new deal: Policy brief. UNEP and Partners. http://www.unep. org/pdf/A_Global_Green_ New Deal_ Policy_ Brief.pdf. [Accessed 22 June 2012]. 44 England, A. 2012. S Africa in front line of global warming battle. The Financial Times, Wednesday, June 20, 2012. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/1fc15ec0-b9a4-11e1-b4d600144feabdc0.pdf. [Accessed 22 June 2012]. pp.1. 45 Togo, M. 2012. Exxaro powering possibility through clean and renewable energy technology ventures. In G. Nhamo, G. (Ed.) Breakthrough: Corporate South Africa in Low Carbon and Green Economy. In press. 46 http://www.inhabitat.com/2007/12/10/building-modelled-on-termites-eastgate-centrein-zimbabwe/ [Accessed 22 June 2012]. 47 About the SEED Initiative. http://www.seedinit.org/en/about.html. [Accessed 07 July 2012] 48 About the SEED Initiative. http://www.seedinit.org/en/about.html. [Accessed 07 July 2012] 49 Norström, A. 2011. A quick guide to Green Economy. Feature. http://www.sdupdate. org/index.php?option=com_ content&view=article&id=89:a-quick-guide-to-greeneconomy&catid=5:feature. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 50 Open Society Initiative for Southern Africa, One World and Heinrich Böll Foundation. 2012. Promoting a pro-poor, socially-inclusive and natural resources-driven Green Economy in Africa. http://www.osisa.org/sites/default/files/green_economy_ policy_ roundtable_review.pdf. [Accessed 20 June 2011]. (Unpaginated). 51 UNESCO Future Forum. 2011. Towards a Green Economy and Green Societies. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization: Paris. 52 UNEP. 2011. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication - A Synthesis for Policy Makers. UNEP. http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ger/GER_ synthesis_en.pdf. [Accessed 24 June 2011].

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

53 United Nations. 2012. 54 Mabudafasi, R. (2012). Statement by minister MejoiceMabudafasi, Deputy Minister of Water and Environmental Affairs of South Africa on sharing South Africa perspective on green Economy at ministerial meeting “ sharing green economy Best practices towards Rio+20” in Poland 11 to 12 October 2011. http://www.uncsd2012.org/content/ documents/536South%20Africa.pdf. [Accessed 20 June 2012]. pp.4. 55 Mabudafasi, R. 2012. pp.7. 56 Jäckle, A. 2008. Improvement of Agricultural Production through Food For Work in the Provinces Manicaland and Matabeleland South, Zimbabwe. Evaluation Report. http:// www.millenniumsdoerfer-der-welthungerhilfe.de/fileadmin/media/pdf/Evaluationen/ Evaluation_ Simbabwe_1022_Welthungerhilfe.pdf. [Accessed 24 August 2012]. 57 Africare. 2008. 58 The Hindu. 2012. Green Economy: India slams developed nations. Rio de Janeiro. http:// www.thehindu.com/news/national/article3553871.ece. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 146

59 UNU-INRA. 2011. (Unpaginated).

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61 Yuwono, S. 2011. The U.S. green economy is a complete fallacy. The campus Times. http://www.campustimes.org/2011/04/14/the-u-s-green-economy-is-a-complete-fallacy/ (Accessed 24 June 2011). 62 Zukang, S. 2010. Green Korea Conference – 29 Sep 2010. http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio 20/?page=view&nr=113&type=8&menu=41&template=356. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 63 Khor, M. 2011. The “Green Economy” Debate: a sustainability perspective. Presentation on the Green Economy, in the context of sustainable development at the inter-sessional meeting on Rio Plus 20 (Panel on Green Economy) at the United Nations: New York. 10–11 January 2011. http://www.southcentre.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1 539%3Asb54&catid=144%3Asouth-bulletin-individual-articles&Itemid=287&lang=en. [Accessed 24 July 2011]. 64 European Environment Agency. Undated. About green economy. http://www.eea.europa. eu/themes/economy/about-green-economy. [Accessed 24 June 2011]. 65 United Nations Economic and Social Council; Economic Commission for Africa. 2011. A Green Economy in the Context of Sustainable Development: What are the implications for Africa? Meeting of the Committee of Experts of the 4th Joint Annual Meetings of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 24 – 27 March 2011. pp.1. http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ research_products/Green%20Economy%20-%20Africa%20Background%20Report%20 Final.pdf. . [Accessed 12 June 2012]. pp.1. 66 Davis, S. Hughes, A. and Louw, K. 2008. The impact of free basic electricity on the energy choices of low income households: A case study in South Africa. Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Working Paper no. 80. Stanford University: California. http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/22331/WP_80,_Davis_Hughes_Louw,_FBE_ in_South_Africa.pdf. [Accessed 22 August 2012].

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67 Bekker, B., Gaunt, C. T. and Eberhard, A. Undated. Uncertainties within South Africa’s goal of universal access to electricity by 2012. http://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/ UncertaintieswithinSouthAfricasgoalofuniversalaccesstoelectricity.pdf [Accessed 23 August 2012].

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Exploring the challenges and opportunities for low carbon climate resilient development in Africa Shakespear Mudombi

INTRODUCTION The African continent faces a lot of challenges, including: poverty, food insecurity, low standards of living, diseases, low life expectancy and political instability. In addition, climate variability and change is exacerbating these challenges, making the continent one of the most vulnerable. This situation is aggravated by the interaction of multiple stresses occurring at various levels and Africa’s low adaptive capacity.1 The regional scenarios over the next century indicate that East Africa could receive more rain, Southern Africa will probably become drier, while food and water shortages, floods, and storms are also likely to increase throughout most parts of the continent.2 Climate change is probably the greatest global outcome of environmental inequity, as those who contributed much to it through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are not the worst affected.3 GHG emissions have grown Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.4 Though Africa contributed insignificantly to past GHG emissions, the negative effects that it is experiencing or will experience outweigh the positive benefits that might arise from climate change. Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution and an effective solution requires that all countries work together. It has been noted that emission cuts by the industrialised countries alone will not do much to avert climate change, hence the need for participation by other countries, especially emerging economies.5 Thus non-cooperation between countries will leave the world worse off and more vulnerable. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) identified two responses to climate change: mitigation by reducing GHG emissions and enhancing sinks, and adaptation to the impacts.6 It has been 148

noted that even the most stringent efforts to reduce GHG emission will not

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ful action on climate change must include both adaptation and mitigation.7 The need to act against climate variability and change is recognised now more than ever. Planning for adaptation can and should complement efforts to reduce emissions and an early start would reduce the overall costs.2 If the world wants to set itself on an emissions pathway with a high probability of containing global warming below two degree Celsius, taking action is urgent.8 Mitigation measures now taking shape within industrialised countries will need to be accelerated and complemented by comprehensive efforts worldwide.9 Developed countries must take urgent measures to reduce their emissions, economically advanced developing countries should be helped to reduce emissions and adapt, and low income countries should be supported to adapt and reduce emissions over time.10 In this endeavour, different countries have begun to search for new development paths, among which low carbon development (LCD) has become a widely advocated one.11 Currently, there is no internationally agreed definition of LCD.12 Despite the discrepancies among different understandings, there is a common point on low-carbon development: reducing GHG emissions, exploiting low-carbon energy and ensuring economic growth.11 It entails: using less energy, improving energy efficiency, adopting low carbon energy sources, protecting and promoting natural resources that store carbon (e.g. forests and land), promotion and use of low or zero carbon technologies and business models, and implementing policies and incentives that discourage carbon intensive practices and behaviours.10, 13, 14 This chapter explores the challenges and oportunities of adopting LCD in the African context, based on a literature review and the author’s own observation. It also discusses the relationship between LCD and sustainable Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

development.

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prevent the impact of climate change in the next few decades, hence success-

CHALLENGES FOR LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA There are many challenges to the adoption of LCD in Africa. These challenges do not apply to African countries alone, but also to other developing countries, while other challenges also apply to developed countries. The challenges include: rising carbon emissions, perception of LCD, ineffective government policies, inadequate financial resources, increasing desertification and land degradation, lack of trust between developing and developed countries, abundance of fossil fuels, high dependency on agriculture, poor institutional framework, carbon leakage, and political instability. These aspects will now be considered in the next sections.

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RISING CARBON EMISSIONS Africa contributes a disproportionately small fraction of the global fossil fuel carbon emissions. However, the continent plays a globally important role in fire and land use carbon emissions.15The growth in Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been coupled with an increase in carbon emissions. This is depicted in Figure 9.1, which shows the trends for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and GDP levels from 1971 to 2008.

1,000 ,900 ,800 ,700 ,600

GDP (Billion US$) CO2 (million tonnes) CO2 coal (million tonnes) CO2 oil (million tonnes)

,500 ,400 ,300 ,200 ,100 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

,0

Figure 9.1: Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and GDP for Africa from 1971 to 2008 Source: CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2010 Edition), IEA, Paris. http://www.iea.org

From 1971 to 2008 there has been a general increase in carbon emissions and this increase is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The chalCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

lenge is how the continent can improve the standards of living for its people through increased industrial, agricultural, and economic growth while reducing or minimising GHG emissions. In terms of LCD, there is need of finding ways of ensuring that emissions do not continue on an upward trend. An improvement in efficiency of production processes is required so that higher levels of GDP are achieved with less carbon emission.

PEOPLE’S PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT A well-informed population is essential for addressing and coping with such a complex issue as climate change, hence broad understanding of the issue will facilitate adoption and implementation of necessary and appropriate responses.16 The general public lack information and knowledge 150

about climate change in general and the rationale for LCD. People cannot

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reduce emissions if they understood the causes of climate change.17 Hence, for Africa to embrace LCD, it is important to create awareness so that people understand the advantages and opportunities of adopting this developmental path.

INEFFECTIVE GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND CONFLICTING OBJECTIVES Many African governments face challenges in formulating policies and implementing these policies. The policies might be good on paper, but they are not implemented or they are implemented incorrectly. This is the same fate the low carbon policies are likely to face. Failure to formulate and implement proper policies has also been due to competing needs, or rather, too many needs that have to be fulfilled with limited resources. The challenge also arises as a result of multiple conflicting objectives between governments and the public. The public in some cases fails to appreciate why the government puts in place certain policies or legislation, while in other cases it is the government that fails to adequately inform the public. For example, the Zimbabwean government intended to ban importing second hand vehicles that were five years old and above, in October 2011. This was prompted by the need to protect the local car industry and to reduce carbon emission. However, due to objections from various stakeholders (the public, car dealers and politicians), the government had to suspend the ban.18 Related to this is the issue of reduction or complete removal of fossil fuel subsidies. It has been noted that eliminating existing subsidies on fossil fuels is a cheaper way to reduce carbon emission.5 This is because subsidies encourage wasteful consumption, distort markets, impede investment in Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

clean energy sources and are inappropriate for reducing poverty.19 It is expected that eliminating such subsidies would create substantial immediate

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embrace LCD if they do not understand the concept. People would want to

fiscal, economic and environmental benefits. However, in practise, these measures might have unintended effects, as removal will have a negative impact on the price of other goods and services. The removal of an oil subsidy in Nigeria at the beginning of 2012 led to oil prices more than doubling, which sparked political unrest and workers went on strike, resulting in a negative economic impact.20 The Nigerian government had to quell the unrest by partially scaling back on the subsidy removal programme. So while governments might have noble ideas to reduce emission, the ideas end up not being implemented because of opposition from interest groups. In moving towards LCD, it will be difficult for African governments to strike a balance between reducing GHG emissions and the need to meet decent standards of living for their citizens. There is a need

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for African governments to engage the public more when formulating and implementing certain policies, so that the public is well informed about the intentions of the government.

INADEQUATE FINANCIAL RESOURCES Moving towards LCD requires a lot of financial resources for strengthening innovation systems, importing and using cleaner technologies and production processes. It has been noted that not all developing countries will be able to obtain private finance for mitigation and adaptation.21 Most African governments do not have enough financial resources to meet the basic needs of their citizens and putting aside extra resources to finance low carbon initiatives will be a big challenge, especially when there are pressing adaptation needs. It has been noted that the implementation of LCD in developing countries will depend on the quality and volume of financial flows delivered by the international community.22. Moreover, there are concerns that finance, especially for adaptation, will not be new and additional.7 If this is the case, it means that the gains that have been made in sectors that used to receive development support (such as health, education and poverty reduction) are likely to be reversed. With weak adaptive capacity, it will be difficult to sustain any mitigation initiatives. The predominant agricultural nations of Africa are poorly positioned to benefit financially and technologically from emission mitigation trading schemes, because these mechanisms focus mainly on easily verified industrial emission reductionss15. The current financing instruments are based on voluntary contributions from developed countries and the level of disbursement is limited compared to the needs.23 This neccessitates the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

need for African governrments to mobilise financial resources from domestic sources, while also participating in global financial markets.

CONTINUED DESERTIFICATION AND LAND DEGRADATION Two thirds of Africa is classified as desert or dryland and the continent bears the greatest impact of drought and desertification, whereby at least 65 per cent of the entire African population is affected.24, 25 Desertification has reduced by 25 per cent the potential vegetative productivity of more than one quarter of the continent’s land area and climate change is set to increase the areas susceptible to droughts, land degradation and desertification.26 Climate change exacerbates desertification through alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in temperature, rainfall, solar insolation 152

and winds. Conversely, desertification aggravates climate change through

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the carbon sequestration potential of desertified land.26,27 When it comes to deforestation, forest clearing is a significant source of GHG emission and for some farmers the most practical means for expanding agricultural production to meet rising food demands.28 There has also been much deforestation to meet fuel needs using firewood,1 which is being worsened by electricity power cuts in some urban areas.

LACK OF TRUST BETWEEN DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES There is lack of trust between developing and developed countries regarding efforts to address climate change. The first area of disagreement is what should come first or what should be given greater priority. Is it adaptation or mitigation? Developing countries’ priorities have been centred mainly on adaptation, while developed countries’ priorities have mainly been mitigation. This lack of trust is a result of many factors, which include: failure by many developed countries to meet their Kyoto Protocol commitments, doubts about the transparency or neutrality of processes and institutions, and the manner in which money is disbursed.7 The clean development mechanism, an instrument under the Kyoto Protocol, is perceived as unfair to Africa and other emerging economies as it is seen as biased towards mitigation and does little regarding adaptation.29 This lack of trust is a serious impediment to LCD, as this has implications on how LCD is perceived and embraced in developing countries.

DEPENDENCY ON AGRICULTURE Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Most African countries are highly dependent on agriculture as a source of food, raw materials, employment and income. Agriculture provides 70 per

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the release of CO2 from cleared and dead vegetation and a reduction in

cent of employment and 30 per cent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product.30 However, agriculture is also an important source of GHG: in 2005 it accounted for about 14 per cent of global GHG emission.8 The contribution of different categories of agriculture to total agricultural GHG emission in 2005 was8: agricultural soils (nitrous oxide) – 37 per cent; livestock enteric fermentation (methane) – 31 per cent; rice cultivation (methane) – 13 per cent; livestock manure management (methane and nitrous oxide) – 7 per cent; and other agricultural practises – 12 per cent. The food chain also produces GHG emissionsat all stages in its life cycle, from the farming process and its inputs, through to manufacturing, distribution, refrigeration, retailing, food preparation in the home and waste disposal.31

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Climate change mitigation through land management could also impart unintended environmental and social costs that affect the most vulnerable sectors of society.15 It could also undermine agricultural production. If arable land is converted to grass or forestry for sequestration purposes, this may require more intensive cultivation or clearing of other areas to compensate for yield losses.35 Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) and bio-fuel production has been cited as contributing to food insecurity in some parts of Africa.28 High food prices and the associated food insecurity have detrimental effects on other developmental objectives on the continent.

CONSUMER PREFERENCES This challenge is not specific to Africa, but also applies to the rest of the world. Consumer preferences for various products and services play a significant role in GHG emission. Some products and services have a high carbon footprint. For example, livestock is an important source of greenhouse gas methane, which means a higher demand for livestock products will have a bearing on emissions. In developed economies, the prevalence of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles is a visible reminder that many people do not seem to care about GHG emission.17 Changes in lifestyle, behaviour patterns and management practices can contribute to climate change mitigation and an equitable and sustainable low-carbon economy.4 Behavioural change can include reducing business and private travel, shifting road transport to rail, accepting higher domestic temperature variations, reducing appliance use and reducing meat consumption.8 However, these changes in consumer preference might have detrimental effects on some industries and countries that fail to adjust in Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

time. The success of low carbon initiatives also depends on how consumers perceive technology and products. If consumers have a negative perception of the technology or product, the adoption of that technology or demand for that product will be low. This can be illustrated by the bio-fuels case in Zimbabwe. The Zimbabwean government promoted bio-fuels with the objective of reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. It formed partnerships with private companies to build one of the largest ethanol plants in southern Africa. However the project is failing to sustain itself because of lack of demand for the fuel. Below is an excerpt from a Zimbabwean weekly newspaper about the issue32: ‘ … the company running the venture remains stuck with millions of litres of 154

fuel. The company no longer has storage space for the ethanol, since little of the

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use the E10 fuel to power their vehicles are hesitant to adopt the product as they are concerned with the safety of their vehicles.’

POOR INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK To attract private sector investment, the institutional frameworks should be attractive, coupled with efficient operationalisation of legal measures.31 Low carbon initiatives can be promoted by adopting sustainable land management techniques. However, barriers such as delayed return on investment, collective action failure and lack of tenure security, limit the success of these techniques. 33 There are various institutions that can be used to manage resources effectively, however in most cases these institutions fail.34 These institutions include: markets, property rights, government and local level or comanagement. Participation of poorer community members in some carbon offset projects has been noted to be limited, because they do not have the financial resources and do not meet other eligibility criteria.35 Tenure insecurity in Africa is a serious challenge. Private land ownership has been found not to be appropriate in certain settings, while communal and state ownership does not usually provide enough incentive to manage the land properly. Women and other vulnerable groups usually do not have secure tenure compared to men. If low carbon initiatives or projects end up excluding other segments of the society (the poor, youth and women) from benefiting, then these initiatives will end up reinforcing current inequalities.

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CARBON LEAKAGE Carbon leakage is defined as an increase in carbon emissions outside the

EXPLORING THE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA

product is finding its way to the local market. Motorists who were expected to

countries taking domestic mitigation action divided by the reduction in the emissions of these countries4. Africa has been described as a dumping ground for most things – used equipment and goods as well as obsolete technology. The continent is also a good market for second-hand (used) vehicles that are being imported from developed countries. Though these imported second-hand vehicles help ordinary people afford vehicles, concerns have been raised over carbon emission from these vehicles, emissions are reduced in developed countries while in recipient countries emissions increase. Most African governments do not have appropriate legislation to ensure that foreign direct investment projects are low carbon compliant. In addition, other pressing needs, such as employment creation come first,

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before other considerations. This results in high carbon ( environmentally unfriendly) projects being undertaken on the continent.

POLITICAL INSTABILITY There has been chronic armed conflict in several regions of Africa almost continuously for the past three decades, which weakens the ability of nations involved to respond to climate change.26 For LCD to take effect, it requires stability in both the political and economic arena. The recent instability from the Arab Spring shook energy markets and underscored the importance of maintaining spare capacity and strategic stockpiles for dealing with supply disruption.30 The negative effect of political instability and conflict results from: the damage to infrastructure, diversion of resources, failure to implement projects in the affected areas, fear and intimidation of project participants, lack of political will, etc. Most low carbon projects require huge investment and cooperation between states, which makes peace and security prerequisites for safeguarding trans-national hydropower infrastructure. There have been many reports of unsustainable and illegal harvesting of forests resources in areas controlled by rebel armies in some parts of the continent, which goes against the objectives of programmes such as REDD.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA Besides the challenges highlighted, there are some opportunities associated with adopting LCD on the continent. The opportunities include: climate

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finance, technology transfer, abundant renewable energy.

ACCESSING CLIMATE FINANCE It has been noted that there are many financial instruments and funds that Africa can take advantage of in financing low carbon initiatives. These financial sources include domestic, private, multilateral and bilateral sources.31, 38 In the previous section, inadequate finance (especially from domestic sources) was highlighted as a challenge to the success of LCD in Africa. However, due to the bias of developed countries towards mitigation, there has been increased funding for LCD initiatives from which African countries can benefit, though concerns have been raised that there could be diversion of funds from sectors that used to receive aid and support to mitigation activities. 156

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the Clean Development Mechanism), voluntary markets, and public funds (e.g. Global Environment Facility), and other climate finance instruments (e.g. Fast Start Climate Finance and the Green Climate Fund).38 Some unds can also be accessed through REDD initiatives. It has been noted that the potential for REDD in Africa is enormous; the continent contains 635 million hectares of forest and some countries are already developing or implementing REDD national strategies.36 However, utilisation of funds from these sources depends on the ability of governments, the private sector and communities to formulate projects and apply for the funding. If the application process is complicated, then these funds will be accessed mainly by those who have the know-how, while marginal communities and regions are left out.

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER The benefits of climate change mitigation projects in developing countries include the transfer of technology and know-how. Technology transfer includes the transfer of both ’hard’ and ‘soft’ forms of technologies.37 It has been noted that the proliferation of low carbon initiatives in developed countries can have a direct effect in lowering the cost of climate-friendly technologies as a result of creating mass markets for these technologies.12 However, technology transfer in CDM projects was found to be generally more strongly associated with larger projects.38.Impediments that hinder effective transfer of technologies include lack of financial resources, poor institutions, lack of human resources, legal barriers, and restrictive trade practices.16 Also a key constraint to the uptake of cleaner production technologies is weakly developed national innovation systems that do not Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

provide an enabling and conducive environment for the uptake of these technologies.39

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Financing mechanisms include: compliance cap-and-trade systems (e.g.

With the shift of technology development towards cleaner, efficient, low carbon technology in developed countries, the old and carbon intensive technologies will become obsolete. This necessitates the need for African countries to embrace new and cleaner technologies so that it improves it competitiveness globally. This should involve improving human skills through education and training, formulating and implementing favourable policies and developing their systems of innovation.

ABUNDANT RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES Renewable energy has a positive effect on energy security, employment and air quality.4 The African continent has potential to harness and utilise

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renewable energy from sources such as wind, solar, hydro power, geothermal and bio-fuels.31 Investment in renewable energy in Africa remains low, with limited developments in the north and south, while the vast mass of Sub-Saharan Africa is largely unexploited.40 Africa has the highest portion of undeveloped hydropower generation capacity (around 92 per cent), which could be developed to eleven times its current level.41 In terms of bio-fuels, South Africa has about 8.7 billion hectares of land suitable for feedstock cultivation; Angola, Zambia and Mozambique have respectively 22.1 billion, 24.1 billion and 31.1 billion hectares of land classified as very suitable or suitable.44

THE LINK BETWEEN LCD AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the current generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.42 It is concerned with three dimensions, namely: economic, social, and environmental. Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change by enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience, while climate change could impede nations’ abilities to achieve sustainable development.43 The negative interaction between climate change and sustainable development implies mitigating climate change through LCD is in line with sustainable development objectives though it does not guarantee attainment of such objectives. The relationship between LCD and sustainable development is depicted by in Figure 3.2 below. Environmental Low D e v C ar b o elop n men t

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Economic

Sustainable Development

Social

Figure 9.2: Conceptualising the linkage between LCD and sustainable development 158

Source: Own conceptualisation

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

ronmental, social and economic. It is attained when these three dimensions converge. LCD is a cross cutting issue and its aim is to achieve economic growth at lower carbon emissions. However, LCD deals with only part of the environmental dimension, as it is concerned mainly with reduced carbon emissions while leaving out other environmental concerns. Given this scenario, the convergence of LCD with other dimensions of sustainable development, namely economic and social dimensions, is limited. Mitigating climate change through LCD can facilitate the removal of only part of the potential barriers to the achievement of sustainable development; there are other barriers that have to be taken into account. This chapter argues that pursing LCD without embedding it within overall sustainable development objectives is not only inadequate, but might end up reversing some gains that have been made in the economic, social and environmental dimensions. This means LCD is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for sustainable development. However broadening LCD to include other important development factors will increase the area that it converges with sustainable development. This is relevant, especially now when world leaders are showing a renewed commitment to sustainable development, as evidenced by their common vision “Future we want”, which was agreed at the Rio +20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development.44

CONCLUSION Climate variability and change is presenting new development challenges globally and in Africa in particular. These new challenges have also exacerCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

bated other challenges that the continent has been experiencing. LCD has the potential to mitigate climate change and bring other benefits; however

EXPLORING THE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA

Figure 9.2 depicts sustainable development with three dimensions: envi-

there are challenges that hinder its success in Africa and other developing regions. There are opportunities too for the adoption of LCD on the continent and at the same time LCD will also create opportunities for the continent. After reviewing the various challenges and opportunities of adopting LCD in Africa, it is concluded that Africa can and should pursue LCD. However the continent should look beyond just reducing carbon emissions, there are a myriad of challenges that are social, economic and environmental, which LCD should take into account. As such, LCD should combine key elements of mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development.12,19 In the African context, LCD should contribute to economic growth, employment creation, food security and poverty reduction, taking into account the continent’s resource endowments and stages of development of member countries.

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NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M., et al. 2007. Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden, & C. E. Hanson (Eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

2

UNEP. 2003. How will global warming affect my world? A simplified guide to the IPCC’s “Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”. Geneva: United Nations Environment Programme.

3

UN/GARDRR. 2009. Summary and recommendations: 2009 Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction. Risk and Poverty in a changing climate, Invest today for a safer tomorrow. United Nations. Available from: http://www.preventionweb.net/ files/9414_GARsummary.pdf. [Accessed 12 Februery 2012].

4

IPCC (wg III). 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (B. Metz, O. R. Davidson, P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, & L. A. Meyer, Eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

5

Frankel, J. A. 1999. Greenhouse gas emissions. Brooking Policy Brief Series: http://www. brookings.edu/papers/1999/06energy_frankel.aspx [Accessed 12 February 2012].

6

Klein, R.J., Huq, S., Denton, F., Downing, T.E., Richels, R.G., Robinson, J.B., et al. 2007. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation. In M.L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, & C.E. Hanson (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 745–777). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

7

Klein, R.J. (2010). Linking adaptation and development finance: A policy dilema not addressed in Copenhagen. Climate and development, 2, pp.203–206.

8

McKinsey & Company. 2009. Pathways to low-Carbon economy: version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Abatement Cost Curve. Mckinsey & Company.

9

IEA. 2011. CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion highlights. Paris: International Energy Agency. Available through: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/co2highlights.pdf. [Accessed 27 July 2012].

10 DFID. 2009. Eliminating World Poverty: Building our Common Future. White paper . London: Department for International Development. 11 Yuan, H., Zhou, P., & Zhou, D. 2011. What is Low-Carbon Development? A Conceptual Analysis. Energy Procedia, 5, pp.1706–1712. 12 Mulugetta, Y., & Urban, F. 2010. Deliberating on low carbon development. Energy Policy , 38, pp.7546–7549. 13 Urban, F., Mitchell, T., & Villanueva, P.S. 2010. Greening disaster risk management: Issues at the interface of disaster risk management and low carbon development. Strengthening Climate Resilience Discussion Paper (3) . Brighton: Institute for Development Studies. 14 Sokona, Y. 2011. Low Carbon Development in Africa. First Climate Change and Development in Africa conference: Plenary Keynotes . Addis Ababa: African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC)/UNECA. Available from: http://www.uneca.org/acpc/ccda/ccda1/ 160

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15 Williams, C.A., Hanan, N.P., Neff, J.C., Scholes, R.J., Berry, J.A., Denning, A.S., et al. 2007. Africa and the global carbon cycle. Carbon Balance and Management, 2 (3). 16 IPCC (wg III). 1990. Climate change: The IPCC response strategies. The Intergovarnmental Panel on Climate Change (Response Strategies Working Group). World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environment Programme. 17 O’Connor, R.E., Bord, R.J., Yarnal, B., & Wiefek, N. 2002. Who Wants to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions? Social Science Quarterly, 83 (1), pp.1–17. 18 The Chronicle Newspaper. 2011. Breaking news: Goche suspends ban on ex-Japaneese vehicles. [Online] 4 October 2011. Available at Zimpapers: http://www.zimpapers. co.zw/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5751:breaking-news-gochesuspends-bans-on-ex-jap-vehicles&catid=37:top-stories&Itemid=130 [Accessed 9 February 2012]. 19 AEA Technology. November 2010 to February 2011. Fossil-fuel subsidies and low carbon development. Low Carbon Development Summary Sheets . Available from: http://www. aeat.co.uk/cms/assets/Uploads/DFID-Low-carbon-summary-sheets/DFID_low_carbon_development_fossil_fuel_subsidies.pdf [Accessed 20 June 2012]. 20 IEA. 2012. Removal of gasoline subsidy in Nigeria sparks protests and cut in demand. The Oil Market Report. Available from: International Energy Agency http://www.iea. org/index_info.asp?id=2354. [Accessed 9 February 2012]. 21 Ellis, K., Cantore, N., Keane, J., Peskett, L., Brown, D., & Willwn te Velde, D. 2010. Growth in a carbon constrained global economy. London: Overseas Development Institute. 22 Coordination SUD & CAN-F. 2011. Analysis of the sixteenth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), November 29 to December 10, 2010, Cancun. Climate Change Negotiations: Time to Fill the Ambition Deficit. Coordination SUD – Solidarité Urgence Développement, Paris (www.coordinationsud.org); Climate Action Network France (CAN-F), Montreuil (www.rac-f.org). 23 Beileh, A. 2011. Climate change finance. First Climate Change and Development for Africa conference presentations . Addis Ababa: UNECA. Available from: http://www.uneca.org/ acpc/ccda/ccda1/plenary%20Keynotes/4-Presentation%20by%20Mr%20Beileh%20at%20 CCDA_Animation_Final2.pdf. [Accessed 10 January 2012]. Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

24 Granich, S. 2006. Deserts and desertification. Tiempo (59), pp.8–11. 25 UNECA. 2007. Africa Review Report on drought and desertification. Fifth Meeting of the Africa Committee on Sustainable Development (ACSD-5) Regional Implementation Meeting (RIM) for CSD-16. Addis Ababa: Economic Commission for Africa.

EXPLORING THE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA

plenary%20Keynotes/3-Low%20Carbon%20Development%20in%20Africa%20-%20 CCDA-1%20Final.pdf [Accessed 10 February 2012].

26 IPCC. 2001. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. (J. J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, & K.S. White, Eds.) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 27 Balling (Jr), R.C. 2005. Interactions of Desertification and Climate change in Africa. In P.S. Low (Ed.), Climate change and Africa (pp. 41–49). UK: Cambridge Univeristy. 28 Greig-Gran, M. 2010. Beyond forestry: why agriculture is key to the success of REDD+. IIED Briefing . London: International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED). 29 Nhamo, G. 2009. Climate change: Double-edged sword for African trade and development. International Journal of African Renaissance Studies – Multi-, Inter- and Transdisciplinarity, 4 (2), pp.117–139.

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30 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. 2010. Agricultural development in Africa: fact sheet. Global Development Program . Available from: www.gatesfoundation.org [Accessed 14 August 2012]. 31 Garnett, T. 2010. Where are the best opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food system (including the food chain)? Food Policy , doi:10.1016/j. foodpol.2010.10.010. 32 Zindi, E. 2012. The sad tale of Chisumbanje ethanol plant. The Sunday Mail, [online] 30, March 2012. Available at: http://www.sundaymail.co.zw/index.php?option=com_conte nt&view=article&id=27883:the-sad-tale-of-chisumbanje-ethanol-plant&catid=37:topstories&Itemid=13. [Accessed 18 August 2012]. 33 Lipper, L., Neves, B., Wilkes, A., Tennigkeit, T., Gerber, P., Henderson, B., et al. 2011. Climate Change Mitigation Finance for Smallholder Agriculture A guide book to harvesting soil carbon sequestration benefits. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organisation. 34 Acheson, J. 2000. Varieties of Institutional Failure. Keynote Address for the Meetings of the International Association for the Study of Common Property Resources. Bloomington, Indiana. 35 Peskett, L., Brown, J., & Schreckenberg, K. 2010. Carbon offsets for forestry and bioenergy: researching opportunities for poor rural communities. Overseas Development Institute (ODI). 36 Jotoafrika. 2010. Forestry and REDD in Africa. (P. Minang, & H. Neufeldt, Eds.) Adapting to climate change in Africa Newsletter (4). 37 UNFCCC. (2007). Climate change: impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation in developing countries. Bonn, Germany: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 38 UNFCCC. 2010. The contribution of the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol to technology transfer. Bonn: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 39 Muchie, M. 2000. Barriers to the Uptake of Cleaner Technologies in African Countries: The Case of Tanzania. Science Technology Society, 5 (61), pp.62–79.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

40 UNE and New Energy Finance. 2008. Global trends in sustainable energy investment 2008: analysis of trends and issues in the financing of renewable energy and energy efficiency. United Nations Environment Programme and New Energy Finance Ltd. 41 IPCC. 2012. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press. 42 WCED. 1987. Our common future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 43 IPCC (wg II). 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, & C.E. Hanson, Eds.) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 44 United Nations. 2012. Rio+20 concludes with big package of commitments for action and agreement by world leaders on path for a sustainable future. Rio +20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. Rio de Janeiro: Available from: http://www. un.org/en/sustainablefuture/pdf/rio20%20concludes_press%20release.pdf [Accessed 19 August 2012].

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Making a case for green cities in South Africa Shingirirai Savious Mutanga, Nedson Pophiwa and Thokozani Simelane

CHAPTER 10

Cities as green economy drivers

INTRODUCTION

U

rbanisation is a rapidly growing phenomenon worldwide and since 2008 urban populations have exceed rural populations.1 At present, there are more than 378 cities with over a million residents and it is

expected that by 2025 this number will escalate to 599.2 Africa as a whole faces an even greater challenge of rapid urbanisation with an annual four per cent population growth rate, which means that by 2017 the continent will host 17 percent of the world’s population.3 The reality of growth in urbanisation needs to be juxtaposed with the crucial reality that cities only occupy two per cent of the Earth’s surface, and yet the urban-dwelling population consumes more than seventy-five per cent of the Earth’s natural resources.4 Such reality is critical in the light of global discussions around climate change and how ‘business-as-usual’ models of exploiting the environment and the earth’s finite natural resources are beginning not only to Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

be questioned but how significant measures of mitigation and adaptation are currently being addressed in urban and rural areas globally. For policy makers, the urban landscape is no longer viewed as just a site of pollution and environmental degradation, but also as a site where urban growth that is green can be pursued. It is hardly surprising therefore to note that every urban planner and policy maker envisages green city plans, as reflected in the extract below: ‘Civic leaders have been dreaming green dreams. Countless civic administrators proclaim their desire to be ‘the greenest city’. They see a world of homes with photovoltaic cells, hillsides humming with windmills and rivers gushing through hydroelectric turbines. Moreover, they see green jobs ... Such is the dream. But that dream could turn into a nightmare unless this modernisation agenda is accompanied by actions to make our cities resilient.’5

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Reading any of the policy and planning documents (particularly, Local Economic Development (LED) plans) by South Africa’s municipalities, it is evident that they have similar dreams of being the greenest in the country, in Africa and in the world. Indeed these dreams can only remain if city planners take into cognisance what works for their city precincts and not just copy so-called ‘best practice’ models from other cities without understanding local conditions and opportunities for resilience. This chapter is therefore an appraisal of selected green city initiatives underway in South Africa. The analysis develops an argument for the intensification of greening South African cities. Based on findings and recommendations of various global and national policy studies, it demonstrates that urbanisation brings both challenges and opportunities for green cities. Challenges include the rapid pace of urbanisation and related pressure on the environment and social relations if it continues on a business-as-usual trajectory. Opportunities for green cities can be found in: the possibility to design, plan and manage the physical structure in ways that are environmentally advantageous; advanced technological innovation; as well as profit from synergies that exist between the constituent elements of complex urban systems.6 A green city growth trajectory will ensure that future generations will indeed inhabit and enjoy a green sustainable earth.

THE PROBLEM OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CITY Urbanisation in post-apartheid South Africa has grown rapidly, such that during 2005, about 59 per cent of the country’s population lived in urban areas compared to the global average of 49 per cent. It is expected that 71.3 per cent of the South African population will be urbanised by 2030 (refer Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

to Table 10.1 below).7 This being the case, future planning for urbanisation will have to take into consideration the need to reduce strain on natural resources as the increasing population will demand of it.

Table 10.1 : Population Distribution by Settlement Type SA Settlement Types

164

% National Population

% Nat Econ Act

% of Nat Land Area

City Region

33.7

56.5

1.9

Cities

5.8

6.0

0.5

TOT: CITY REGIONS & CITIES

39.5

62.4

2.4

Regional service centres

14.8

13.9

1.7

Service Town

4.2

3.3

0.7

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

9.7

6.2

1.9

TOWNS

28.7

23.4

4.4

TOT: URBAN

68.1

85.8

6.8

Dense rural settlement

25.2

5.9

8.4

Other sparsely populated areas

6.7

8.3

84.8

TOTAL National

100

100

100 Source: South African Cities Network (2009)

Rural-urban migration is a large contributor to swelling urbanisation in

CITIES AS GREEN ECONOMY DRIVERS

Local niche towns

the country. South Africa has what can be described as migration corridors: Gauteng receives migrants From Limpopo, North West, Free State, Mpumalanga and northern KZN; the Cape Town corridor is supplied by population migration from southern KZN and the Eastern Cape.8 This rapid expansion in population has far reaching negative consequences for the environment if there are no proactive policies to cater for a growing population using limited natural resources. According to Faling et al, South Africa’s urban areas are vulnerable to climate change related disasters “where structural poverty, substandard infrastructure and housing, high population density, economic assets and commercial and industrial activities are concentrated”.9 Urban South Africa’s high energy needs compound the country’s dependency upon brown or ‘dirty’ forms of electricity. In essence South Africa’s urban areas are critical as contributors to the country’s relatively high energy intensiveness and the country ranks among the world’s top fifteen most energy-intensive economies.10 Approximately 91 per cent of the country’s electricity supply is generated from coal, which results in 94 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission per annum.11 Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Apart from climate change being a challenge to municipalities, problems are further compounded by: insufficient human and financial resources to dedicate to climate change issues; inability to adapt technologically to climate change; failure to incorporate climate change considerations into political and administrative decision making; and a lack of a political champion to drive the climate change programme.12 Added to this, service delivery protests are rife in the country’s urban areas as municipalities face challenges in delivering to their constituencies.

CITIES AS GREEN ECONOMY DRIVERS Although the future may look grim for urban dwellers, it appears that the quality of life for future generations rests on the transition of cities to green

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cities. By definition a city is a “social, ecological, and economic system within a defined geographic territory.”13 A city is also characterised by: a human settlement pattern that associates it with its functional or administrative region, a critical mass and destiny of people, man-made structures and activities. Though a green city may share similar characteristics with any other city, it offers the benefits of being environmentally friendly. These benefits can be measured in terms of levels of pollution and carbon emission, energy and water consumption, water quality, energy mix, waste volumes and recycling rates, green-space ratios, primary forests and agricultural land loss.14 Apart from environmental performance, green cities are known for addressing crucial social equity issues too. Certain cities have been named so on the basis of their ambitious green policies, particularly those in the United States and Europe as well as in Asia in countries like Singapore that have invested in efficient public transport systems (among other green initiatives).15 Cities have several characteristics that make them ‘best spaces’ for green economy to flourish.16 One is related to how innovation nearly always originates in cities in response to specific challenges, or market opportunities, or the collaborations made possible by the emergence of new knowledge networks that often work across sectors and disciplines.17 It is significant that many of the more ambitious sustainability-oriented innovations have emerged in cities where the leadership acknowledges challenges and embraces innovation. Secondly, the density of well-planned, compact cities is the settlement pattern best poised to deliver more efficient infrastructure and reduced resource use.18 As it stands, urban green economy initiatives could go one of three ways: ■

Diverse approaches flourish, but there is a lack of rigor (which, for

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

example, could lead to accusations that business is hijacking the green economy agenda and ‘asset-stripping’ communities as cities go bust). ■

The green economy develops in a fractious fashion with urban planners and fails to support wider calls for densification or resilience.

■

There is a general consensus on the value of green economy for sustainable urban development and local and global governance mechanisms are put in place.19

Ideally the third scenario is one that South African cities should strive to achieve moving forward. The commitment of local government to the Green Economy Agenda is evident in the role played by the South African Local Government Association (SALGA) together with the South African Cities 166

Network (SACN), in collaboration with other national departments, such as

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Economy Summit that was held in South Africa in May 2010. Strides have also been made in greening Growth and Development Strategies as well as LED plans of various municipalities across the country.

GREEN ECONOMY POLICIES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH AFRICAN CITIES National government has traditionally been responsible for the development of new environmental policy, but cities are ultimately responsible

CITIES AS GREEN ECONOMY DRIVERS

Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), in holding the landmark Green

for implementing such policies.20 The Constitution of South Africa and the White Paper on Local Government empower municipalities to be active participants in the developmental of state agenda. Polices with a strong emphasis on a green economy include the New Growth Path (NGP), which set an ambitious target of creating 300,000 additional direct jobs by 2020 to green the economy, with 80 000 in manufacturing and the rest in construction, operations and maintenance of new environmentally friendly infrastructure. In line with the NGP of 2010, SALGA identified specific drivers of relevance to municipalities, such as: working in partnership with business to unlock problems and blockages (red tape) at municipal level and encourage job creation and investment from private sector; municipalities are also obligated to focus on more direct programmes to focus on job creation through programmes like Expanded Works Programme (EPWP) and the Community Works Programmes; SMME development through strategic resourcing/ procurement and possibly engaging in key sector programmes (such as tourism, finance, manufacturing or agriculture services)21. The table below shows selected NGP drivers and their implications for South Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

African municipalities.

Table 10.2 : New Growth Path Drivers and the Implications for Municipalities NGP DRIVERS

MUNICIPAL IMPLICATIONS

1. Public investment in infrastructure

Energy, water, transport, ICT and housing (informal settlements)

2. Target labour intensive activities in services, agriculture, manufacturing and mining

Support for agro processing, tourism, cultural industries, investor friendly policies (removing red tape/ incentives)

3. Take advantage of knowledge and green economies

Green energies, waste management, recycling

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4. Leverage social capital

Community development models, engagement, support to SMMEs

5. Rural development and regional integration

Small scale agriculture, community gardens, co-operatives, irrigation schemes Source: SALGA (2011)

The Industrial Policy and Action Plan (IPAP2) will incentivise green initiatives in strategic areas of energy, such as the biofuels and manufacturing companies that supply components for a green economy. Municipalities will play a strategic role in the IPAP2’s developmental plans, especially those concerning green building compliance and it is acknowledged that, at present, due to multiple service-delivery demands, municipalities have been unable to actively enforce the standards.22 Municipal governments have played an active role in greening their environments and the table below shows some of the green policy initiatives taken by selected metropolitan cities of South Africa.

Table 10.2 : Selected Policy Frameworks to Support Greening of Cities in South Africa City

Outline of Initiative and/or Framework t


Cape Town

t
t


Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

t


t
Durban t


t


Green Building Guidelines: In future new property developments in the city will make use of solar heating and in the social housing projects, retrofitting ceilings of houses will be a way to maximise heating and cooling systems. 23 Darling Wind Farm Other policies:Integrated Metropolitan Environmental Plan (2001), the Energy and Climate Change Strategy (2005), Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Cape Town (2006) Imagine Durban: one of its major thrusts is to promote an accessible city by developing high density nodes and corridors, promoting and encouraging the provision and use of public transport and ensuring access to housing and household services.24 Durban Landfill Gas to Electricity Project through the Clean Development Mechanism. The Durban Green Corridor rehabilitates the natural environment of the Mngeni Basin; creation of jobs and growing the regional economy through sport, recreation and tourism development.25 Other policies: Economic Development Strategy (2008), the Integrated Development Plan (2009) which is reviewed annually, Imagine Durban (2009), Integrated Transport Plan 2010–2015.

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Johannesburg t


t


The draft Growth and Development Strategy (2011): One of the six principles is dedicated to “Ensuring resource security and environmental sustainability”26 in which a number of projects are underlined, for example the development of green infrastructures like smart metering systems for water to improve demand side management. The city has made strides in green transport systems e.g. the Rea Vaya Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT), which currently transports an average of 30,000 commuters a day.27 Cosmo City Solar Water Heating Project. Source: Kabane 2011; www.imaginedurban.org; www.durbangreencorridor.co.za; City of Johannesburg, 2011

Local green economic legislation and programmes will make South African cities more competitive within Africa and the world by providing jobs and

CITIES AS GREEN ECONOMY DRIVERS

t


enabling economic, social, and physical city growth.28

STRATEGIC SECTORS FOR GREENING SOUTH AFRICAN CITIES The areas of importance to greening of cities, which have a bearing on the creation of green industries and green jobs, include: renewable energy generation, energy efficient transport systems, recycling and green waste management, green construction, green manufacturing, sustainable food production, brownfield redevelopment, environment services (such as environmental impact assessments and environmental planning).29 The United Nations Environment Programme’s 2011 Report shows some of the planning and regulatory instruments that can be applied by municipalities in greening their precincts, as shown in the table below.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Table 10.3: Selected Planning and Regulatory Instruments for Urban Greening Urban growth boundaries

Establish clear limits to any form of building development around cities to limit urban sprawl; create green corridors that protect existing ecosystems.

Land-use regulation

Introduce zoning regulation that prioritises development of inner-city, previously developed (brownfield) land over greenfield development at city-wide level.

Special planning powers

Establish urban development corporations or urban regeneration companies to promote and enable green projects.

Vehicle and traffic regulation

Regulate for vehicle types, emission standards, speed limits and roadspace allocation that favours green transport and especially green public transport.

Parking standards

Provide maximum rather than minimum parking standards; reduce this (e.g. less than one car per household) especially in areas of high public transport accessibility.

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Car-free developments

Provide planning incentives for car-free developments in higher density areas with high public transport accessibility.

Minimum emission standards

Regulate minimum carbon emission and energy efficiency standards at the local level for buildings and vehicles. Source: UNEP (2011)

The focus in this discussion is centred on the kinds of green interventions that can be instituted in the cities’ water, energy and transport systems.

WATER South Africa has severe water supply and quality constraints. It is estimated that at least a quarter of municipal water is lost between reservoir and tap, largely due to network leaks and bursts.30 The quality of water available in Gauteng is poor, owing to downstream pollution caused by waste outflows from the Johannesburg-Pretoria complex, which is located on a high altitude watershed.31 With increased urbanisation and movement of people to reside closer to areas of work, a number of informal settlements have risen, with the result that most have no adequate reticulation systems and are sometimes of poor quality, making it easy for groundwater to be polluted.32 As such, groundwater is no longer a viable option. It is already projected that by 2030 urban and domestic sectors are going to triple their water consumption.

Table 10.4: Historical consumption and projected water requirements for 2030 per sector m3/annum

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Sector

1996

2030

Urban and domestic

2 171

6 936

Mining and industrial

1 598

3 380

Irrigation and afforestation

12 344

15 874

Environmental

3 932

4 225

20 045

30 415

Total

Source: M. Swilling (2011)

Therefore water savings and water loss reduction are dependent on reducing water losses caused by aging or poorly maintained network infrastructure and through a strong drive for water conservation and water demand management (WC/WDM).33 It has been established that upgrading and 170

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

of potable water in many industrialised cities.34

ENERGY The present state of energy dependency on fossil fuels and coal-producedelectricity, combined with the energy needs of a growing urban population, are a threat to the sustainability of urban living. While cities use 40 per cent of national energy, predictions have been made that South African cities will double their energy consumption over the next twenty years.35 Added to the energy woes are the majority of buildings that are largely en-

CITIES AS GREEN ECONOMY DRIVERS

replacement of water pipes has contributed to a net savings of 20 per cent

ergy inefficient and a disconnected public transport system that results in high volumes of private motor vehicles on the urban highways. Residential use of electricity, particularly for heating water, consumes about 17 per cent of electric.36 Due to increases in energy prices, the urban poor are hardest hit. Many poor people are forced to use the most polluting sources of energy: coal, paraffin and firewood. Whilst the South African government has formulated renewable energy and climate change responses, implementation actions are now a necessity to alleviate the poor masses. The country could increase its attention to alternative energy used in other developing economies, mainly energy generation through biogas.37 The table shows the potential of organic waste and waste water to produce electricity.

Table 10.5: Summary of energy potential in South Africa Waste

Electrical capacity

Electrical generation

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Theoretical AD of wastewater

31 MW

263 GWh/annum

AD of organic solid waste

176 MW

1500 GWh/annum

TOTAL

207 MW

105GWh/annum

Realistic AD of wastewater

12 MW

105 GWh/annum

AD of organic solid waste

44 MW

375 GWh/annum

TOTAL

56 MW

480 GWh/annum Source: Sustainable Cities Report 2009

Job creation rests in South African cities’ ability to explore the renewable energy options relevant to their localities. Examples include the Darling Wind Farm in Cape Town, which serves as a national demonstration site for

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wind energy, and the various solar water heating (SWH) projects in most metropolitan cities, such as Zanemvula SWH project in Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality, where locals are trained to install the heaters and some are temporarily employed as field assistants in conducting social surveys to track the project.38

TRANSPORT Automobile dependence is a global problem and something which is indicative of the way cities have been shaped. It is projected that the global car fleet will triple and more than 90 per cent of this growth will occur in nonOECD countries. South Africa is no exception, with a growing automobile fleet and disconnected public transport system: that 75 per cent of South Africans rely on public transport, yet infrastructure is geared towards private car users. The greening of existing transport systems will require policies that follow what the UNEP Report refers to as the ‘avoid-shift-improve’ paradigm. Policies may target ‘avoiding transport’ in the sense that non-motorised transport will be used, while shifts and improvements to the transport system will be made through reducing car use or slowing its growth.39 Strategies used in developed cities like Central London include ‘congestion charges’ that have led to significant reduction in vehicles and subsequently CO2 emissions.40 Car use can be reduced by bus rapid transit systems (BRT). Currently the BRT system and Integrated Rapid Public Transport Networks are either underway or on the cards in twelve cities in South Africa (Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Polokwane, Rustenburg, Mbombela, Mangaung, eThekwini, Msunduzi, Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay and

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Cape Town).

Table 10.6: Urban Transport Employment City

Persons employed (operations) in public transport

City

Persons employed (operations) in public transport

New York

78,393

Sao Paulo

15,326

London

24,975

Johannesburg

22,276

Mumbai

164,043

Tokyo

15,326

Berlin

12,885

Istanbul

9,400 Source: UNEP Green Economy Report, 2011

The transport industry requires green intervention because it also plays a 172

crucial role as an employer, operationally and in infrastructure development.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

persons (22,276) employed in the public transport sector. 41 Further research can project how much more employment can be created due to an increased demand for public buses as motorists reduce car travel. A shift to nonmotorised transport systems, such as cycling, urban design, infrastructure for walking, etc., would lead to the creation of employment in the manufacturing and construction sectors of the economy.42

CHALLENGES TO THE GREEN CITIES AGENDA

CITIES AS GREEN ECONOMY DRIVERS

The table shows that Johannesburg has a comparatively large number of

In order to sum up this discussion, it is important to begin by explaining the challenges that cities currently face in their effort to become green and to deliver on the green economy growth path of South Africa. (i)

Municipalities face serious capacity issues in delivering on their mandates, particularly in their bid to work within the three tier government structures. An example is that of public transport, where the sharing of responsibility of functions between the three spheres of government is often a source of conflict, especially between cities and the other spheres.43

(ii) It is difficult to consolidate a nation-wide municipal climate change response strategy (let alone a green economy). A study of three South African municipalities shows that “the ability of a municipality to deal effectively with and institutionalise climate change as a priority depends not only on capacity in the form of people with the necessary knowledge and technical skills, but also the type of municipal institutions and structures put in place to deal with climate change.”44 Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

(iii) BRT systems have been implemented amidst a cloud of resistance (sometimes leading to killings of bus users) from small minibus taxi owners who fear they will be outcompeted by the municipal buses. Despite the disgruntlements from taxi owners there stands an opportunity to move them from the second economy to the first economy as bus owners.45 Despite the strides made by municipal leaders in South Africa regarding green city planning, they have also been accused of greenwashing, particularly the city of Durban, which launched a report on the state of its low carbon city status ahead of COP17.46

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CONCLUSION Considerable strides have been made in the greening of South African cities in line with the national government’s green economic growth path. There are a number of state-of-the-art initiatives, such as the CDM-funded Durban Landfill Gas to Electricity Project, the Rea Vaya BRT system, numerous solar water heating projects, among other green initiatives, which are in place or still on the cards. All these are impressive, but shadowing these are issues such as non-service delivery that will continue to stifle the successful implementation of green city initiatives. A recommendation that comes strongly is the need for institutionalisation of green city initiatives and frameworks in such a way that communities become a part of them and won them as residents and beneficiaries. There is also the need for a clear understanding that greening cities will have interim trade-offs but will bear long-term fruits for urban citizens and that cities play a crucial role in the localisation of the green economy in South Africa.

NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

Martinez, A. 2011. “Urban Development: A Viable Option after Rio 2012?,” Sustainable Development Law & Policy: 11: 1

2

Ibid

3

Mans, U. 2010. African Cities and Renewable Energy: The Case of Cape Town, Paper

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

presented at the 46th ISOCARP Congress 2010

174

4

Ibid

5

Antrobus, D. 2011. Smart green cities: from modernization to resilience? Urban Research and Practice, Vol 4 No. 2. p 207

6

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2011. Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication – A Synthesis for Policy Makers, www.unep.org/greeneconomy p457 Accessed 15 October 2011

7

Coetzee, M. 2011. Impact of Urban Form on the Green Economy. Presentation made at the Deve;lopment Bank of South Africa (DBSA) Knowledge Week, 12 October 2011 URL: http://www.dbsa.org/Confr/Presentations/Impact%20of%20Urban%20Form%20on%20 the%20Green%20Economy%20by%20Maria%20Joe%20Coetzee%20pdf.pdf Accessed 5 November 2011

8

Cross, C. 2009. Migration Trends and Human Settlements, Some Implications for Service Centres, URL: http://www.hsrc.ac.za/research/output/outputDocuments/6375_ Cross_Migrationtrendsandhuman.pdf Accessed 5 November 2011

9

Faling, W. J., Tempelhoff, W.N. and Van Niekerk, D. 2012. Rhetoric or action: are South African municipalities planning for climate change? Development Southern Africa. 29:2, p244

10 Holgate, C. 2007. Factors and actors in climate change mitigation: A tale of two South African cities. Local Environment. Vol.12, No.5. p.474

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

12 Faling, et al 2012. Rhetoric or action: are South African municipalities planning for climate change? p246 13 UNEP. 2011. Towards a Green Economy p.456 14 Ibid 15 Ibid 16 UNEP defines a green economy as one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive. UNEP, (2011), Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication – A Synthesis for Policy Makers, www.unep.org/greeneconomy 17 United Nations Habitat. 2011. What Does the Green Economy Mean for Sustainable Urban Development? Expert Group Meeting, 17–18 February 2011,Tribe Hotel, Nairobi, p4

CITIES AS GREEN ECONOMY DRIVERS

11 Ibid

18 Ibid 19 Ibid 20 South African Cities Network (SACN). 2009. Sustainable Cities Report. p34 21 South African Local Government Association (SALGA). 2011. “Local Government’s Role/ Contribution to Development, Employment Creation & Alignment to the New Growth Path” Economic Development Commission 22 Department of Trade and Industry. 2010. Industrial Policy Action Plan II, p54 23 Kabane, N. 2011. Climate Change: Municipal Responses URL: http://www.afesis.org. za/Local-Governance-Articles/climate-change-municipal-responses-by-noxolo-kabane Accessed 15 November 2011 24 www.imaginedurban.org 25 http://www.durbangreencorridor.co.za/ 26 City of Johannesburg. 2011. Growth and Development Strategy (Draft for consultation) 27 Its main target is to place 85% of the city’s population within 500 kilometres of a BRT feeder or trunk route.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

28 South African Cities Network. 2009. p35 29 Sustainable Cities, (2010), The Green Economy, www.sustainablecities.net/projectsoverview/sci-notes 30 Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA). 2010. Programmes in support of transitioning South Africa to a green economy, Development Planning Division, Working Paper Series No.24 p21 31 Swilling, M. 2011. Growth, Resource use and Decoupling: Towards a ‘Green New Deal’ for South Africa? ECSECC, Working Paper Series 14 p.18 32 Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA). 2010. Green Economy Summit Report. p47 33 DBSA. 2010. p 21 34 UNEP. 2011. p471 35 SACN. 2009. Sustainable Cities Report, p20 36 Ibid 37 Ibid. p38

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38 In June 2008 the Electricity and Energy Directorate of Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality initiated a low-pressure solar water heater project in a subsidised housing area. Zanemvula was chosen as an ideal location for a pilot project of this nature. The installation of the solar water heater units began in April 2009, and to date 1000 units have been installed. See the website http://www.nelsonmandelabay.gov.za/Content. aspx?objID=425 39 UNEP, 2010, p470 40 Ibid 41 Ibid, p466 42 DBSA. 2010. p26 43 SACN. 2009. p5 44 Mokwena, L. 2009. Municipal Responses to Climate Change in South Africa: The Case of eThekwini, the City of Cape Town, and the City of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, Centre for Policy Studies p14 45 DEA. 2010. Green Economy Summit. p32

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

46 Bond, P. 2011. Durban’s greenwash ahead of climate conference, URL: http://www. greenleft.org.au/node/48729 visited 15 November 2011 the report is titled,

176

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PART III

Renewable energy solutions to Africa’s energy challenges

177

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Chipo Nyamwena

CHAPTER 11

The development and diffusion of biofuels as an adaptation strategy in Zimbabwe

INTRODUCTION

B

iofuels have been advocated in the last decade as a mitigation measure against climate change, in particular in the quest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with the need to increase energy secu-

rity and rural development. In pursuit of this noble cause, the government of Zimbabwe enacted policies to support production and distribution of biofuels. Ministerial taskforces, national programmes and institutions were established with a mandate to plan and implement biofuels in the country. Six years later, the benefits and the full potential are far from being realised. This chapter applies a Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) framework to analyse the development and diffusion of biofuels in Zimbabwe. The Technological Innovation System draws on a system functions approach.1 One way to counter the conceptual diffuseness of the Innovation Systems approach and increase its rigor and specificity is to relate the Innovation Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

System approach explicitly to the general systems theory. The system function is a structure that has great influence on the success and failure of technologies.2 This argument has been further advanced by noting that, National Innovation system(NIS) are quiet complex , while the TIS makes it possible to map the dynamics of an emerging technology. Scholars like Hekkert (2007) developed the concept of system functions and defined it as contribution of a component or asset of component to a systems performance.3 It has also been suggested that the development and diffusion of novel technologies strongly depends on the interplay of various actors (organizations).4 At the centre of this argument is the fact that through this interplay, new structures emerge, which have a decisive influence on the outcome of innovation processes. Further to this is how innovation activities of firms add up or complement each other contributing to the overall performance of the innovation system (e.g. in the sense of

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technology development and diffusion). More importantly, the framework may allow for a comparison of the role of different actors and their contribution to TIS performance. This chapter contributes to and complements previous research that has used TIS as an analytical framework (Edquist, 2001; Negro, 2007; Foxon. et al., 2005; Suurs and Hekkert, 2005; Alphen, Hekkert and Sarke 2006; Bergek, Jacobson and Sanden 2006; Markard 2006; Hekkert et al., 2006; Negro, Hekkert and Smits, 2007a; Negro, et al., 2008). The general consensus is that when analysing diffusion of biofuels it is important to consider the actors involved so as to have a better understanding of the context in which the diffusion of biofuels is taking place. The analysis allows for the different institutions and stakeholders involved in biofuel development to be analysed. The Zimbabwean case study highlighted in this chapter is based on notes from the field, personal key informant interviews, as well as historical trajectories,5 Historical event analysis is a method which was adopted from Van De Ven, Negro,6, a useful tool which allows for detailed descriptions that contribute to the change and development of biofuels. Thus, in an endeavor to understand diffusion and development of biofuels in Zimbabwe and the characters of such systems, historical event analysis in innovation approach was considered. Previous research on biofuels technology or biomass adoption has identified seven systems necessary to build up TIS. These are entrepreneurial activities, knowledge development, knowledge diffusion, resources mobilization, market information, advocacy coalition and guidance of the search,7 The chapter will seek to analyse the diffusion and development of biofuels along these guidelines of systems functions. The adoption and diffusion of low carbon technologies needs to be seen as innovation processes,8

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Technology-innovation process has several stages: R&D, demonstration, deployment, and diffusion at commercial scale. Another compounding factor in adopting the TIS framework is its ability to conceptualise the growth process of emerging TIS and thereby shed light on the dynamics of transition paths. Lastly, the framework allows for capturing of missing system functions and those that complement each other. The next section outlines an historical overview of biofuels in Zimbabwe, characterised by jatropha and sugarcane as the major crops. This is followed by an overview of the technical implications and how they influence the development and diffusion of biofuels. The role of institutions in the diffusion of biofuels, the actors in knowledge creation, government’s ministries as players in the diffusion process, an analysis of some of the biofuel investments the country, are the central aspects of this chapter. 180

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

One of the drivers for biofuels introduction in Zimbabwe was the persistent fuel crisis that the country found itself in 2000 and the need for energy independence. The drivers for bioenergy development in Africa include security of energy supply, a reduction of the foreign exchange burden of oil importing countries, as well as providing a viable alternative fuel for the transport sector reducing dependence on fossil fuels. In addition, excess biofuels may be exported, creating valuable income for national economies as well as stimulating the much needed development of the agriculture sector. The government of Zimbabwe began its programme in the 1976 (when it was still Rhodesia) and when it got its independence in 1980, the programme continued blending ethanol with petrol until 1992, when a severe drought reduced the production of both sugar and ethanol to nearly zero,9 The ethanol program was motivated by international sanctions imposed on the former Rhodesia, security of supply, foreign currency savings and lower sugar prices. In 1975, Triangle Sugar (Pvt) Ltd, a private enterprise, decided to use surplus molasses from up to 40,000 tonnes of sugar for ethanol production and started production in 1979. A German Company, Gebr Hermman, supplied the plant design and Triangle only purchased the plants (at a reduced price) while the German firm supervised its activities. Adaptation of the equipment was necessary and involved discarding many automatic controls in favour of manual operations to suit the capabilities of the local workforce. Local material of up to 60 percent was utilized, substituting stainless steel used in the distillation columns. The final cost was US$ 6.4 million for a plant capable of producing 40 million litres a year. The plant was designed to produce dehydrated ethanol that is suitable for blending with petrol. The ethanol produced was sold to the National Oil Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Company of Zimbabwe (NOCZIM), which was responsible for distribution to

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF BIOFUELS IN ZIMBABWE

fuel retailers, who in turn undertook the blending of the fuel. For the same reasons and conditions Zimbabwe found itself in 2005, bioethanol was reintroduced. Sugarcane was the crop of choice because of production and blending experience that existed in the country. Before looking at the reintroduction of biofuels in the new millennium, it is imperative to look at the year that is a historical landmark for Zimbabwe. In the year 2000, Zimbabwe embarked on the fast track land reform (FTLP) plan. Land was at the center of politics and a significant amount of land was transferred to the majority historically disadvantaged black people,10 The programme resulted in two distinctive emerging groups of farmers, namely the A1 (village farmers) and the A2 (small scale commercial farmers). Thus, when biofuels were being reintroduced, it was seen as a way of empowering the new farmers who had been empowered with land. However, though they

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had been empowered, security was not guaranteed, as the farmers faced continuous threats, especially with the introduction of biofuels. The land tenure system has great implications for biofuel production, as feedstocks rely heavily on conversion of agricultural land.11 This chapter is about the development and diffusion of biofuels in Zimbabwe, not the contested terrains on land reform and post land reform issues, including contradicting clauses of various acts. Besides the need to empower new farmers and avert the energy crisis, Zimbabwe is a signatory to the Kyoto protocol, which came into effect in 2005.12 The Kyoto Protocol obliges countries to reduce gas emission by at least 5 per cent between 2008 and 2012, based on 1990 levels, primarily by investing in cleaner technologies in developing countries. To this end, several African countries have already developed bioenergy policies and Zimbabwe is no exception. That same year (2005) the GoZ set up an InterMinisterial Taskforce on Fuel and Power Import Substitution that was mandated to spearhead the biofuel initiative. The taskforce quickly specified Jatropha and banned its export as it sought to develop a biofuel industry through the construction of processing plants and the promotion of Jatropha production to supply feedstock in the biofuel plants,13 The taskforce then mandated NOCZIM, FineAlt Engineering and Verify Engineering (Pvt) Ltd to promote Jatropha production for bio-diesel production under the National Bio-diesel Project. A target of meeting 10 per cent of the country’s total diesel requirements within 5 years through locally produced bio-diesel, was set by the taskforce. On the 8th of June 2006, GoZ, through NOCZIM, entered into an agreement with Triangle for the production and delivery of ethanol to NOCZIM for fuel blending. The agreement mandated Triangle to sell nearly its total production of ethanol on the domestic market, satisfying the national re-

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

quirement for industrial, portable alcohol and pharmaceutical purposes,14 Until 2007, sugarcane was grown by big companies (Hippo Valley and Triangle Limited) and smallholder farmer out-growers in Zimbabwe. There are 43 000ha under sugar cane owned by Triangle and Hippo Valley Estates as well as smallholder out-grower schemes, with prospects to expand by 17 000 in the near future,15 When it was revived in 1994, it was for export to earn foreign currency as blending could only have been possible at 5 per cent and that was unacceptable for technical reasons. Triangle was initially paid on a cost plus basis, but this was most unsatisfactory due to the fact that prices continually lagged behind cost increases. As a result, in 1990 a new payment formula was negotiated that was based on the landed cost of petrol in Zimbabwe at Feruka Refinery, with Triangle being paid an equivalent amount. However this price did not reflect the cost of production as the 182

product saved the local market. Ethanol production at Triangle currently

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

nally by the company, leaving 20 million litres available for blending. This falls far short of the national requirement for ethanol blending at 10 per cent of imported fossil fuels, which requires about 100 million litres per annum. Originally, blending in Zimbabwe was done at each oil company fuel terminal (depot). During the 1980s this was done by the existing oil companies which were brought from Triangle to company terminals in various cities around the country. Ethanol was either transported by road or rail and companies paid for the transportation. While it was mandatory for each company to have a blender at each terminal. Management of the process was much easier given that there were a few companies; with a small fleet of vehicles while NOCZIM was the sole importer. The problem that later arose was phase out (mixture of alcohol and water if stored for a long time in tankage) that could not be used for blending. The companies then adopted separate tanks for ethanol and petrol while blending was done in delivery trucks, until the ethanol-blending programme was ended due to drought.

Table 11.1: Molasses and ethanol production in Zimbabwe

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Year

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Cane (000 mt)

2,194

2,314

2,102

1,789

1,940

1,976

Raw Sugar (mt)

537,491

512,411

579,709

501,738

422,291

429,657

Processed Sugar (mt)

214,445

214,494

197,132

139,103

183,338

135,388

Molasses (mt)

78,335

90,082

82,695

68,894

68,805

59,856

Ethanol (000 lts)

23,809

26,854

21,955

23,358

23,348

24,636 Source: ZSA (2007)

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

stands at 25 million litres per year, with 5 million litres being used inter-

In 2007, serious plans to moot the production of biofuels from sugarcane were muted through a private public partnership between the government and USA company Greenfuel,16 The same company acquired huge tracts of land for biofuels in Mwenezi, which saw a number of rural people being displaced. In the country there are commercial level bioethanol processing capacity for molasses, a 5 million liters’ plant per year in Triangle and a bioethanol plant in Chisumbanje under the Green fuel investments, which is a public/private arrangement. The plant has a capacity to produce 160 000 litres per day,17 Bioethanol from sugarcane is produced from molasses (a sugar by-product) and this is done after fermentation and distillation. Greenfuel commenced production in 2010, but could not distribute its fuel because of lack of license to distribute ethanol. The licence was only

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granted in 2011. Since the company has been mooting plans to distribute 18 MW of electricity through a partnership with the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority, establishing a grid has been one hindrance (among other political problems)The company has been facing challenges as consumers were rejecting the ethanol, citing that it burns easily. In an effort to curb this, the company resorted to a higher blending rate, but there is no blending policy at the moment in the country and the company has also been subjected to the ongoing indigenisation programme. In response to these challenges, a team of experts was put in place in 2012 to find the reasons behind the failure of biofuels. It is important to note that Zimbabwe has national bioethanol standards. These are the 20ASTM Standards for full scale to commercialize biodiesel and bioethanol production. The ASTM standards enable ethanol production in Zimbabwe where a blend of ethanol and gasoline is a traditional source of motor fuel. However the region has no set standards and this adversely affects trade. The impetus drive to implement biofuels in Zimbabwe is expressed at the highest level of the Zimbabwe economy as expressed in the Government of National Unity( February 2009), STERP document, and the recent on the Mid-term plan 2011–2015.18The two documents shed light on the need for Zimbabwe to search for alternative sources of energy by pursuing the biofuels routes. The Zimbabwean President, Robert Mugabe, when addressing delegates at the commissioning of the Mount Hampden Plant in 2007 had this to say: “Now that the land has been placed at the majority of the people, there is need for diversification to improve the livelihoods of the people, and biofuels are one way in that direction”.19 (sic) Energy is recognised to be of significant national security interest, not just for continued functioning of the economy, but also for maintaining actual security in terms of defense and the military.20 However, the

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introduction of biofuels has generated much controversy and debate among environmentalists and other activists. The future of biofuels has been met with skepticism among different sectors.

JATROPHA IN ZIMBABWE The next section looks at the historical overview of Jatropha curcas, which is another crop that is being grown in the country for biofuel purposes. Jatropha is a succulent shrub or small tree that belongs to the large Euphorbiaceous family. It is believed to have originated in Central America, but has been naturalised in most tropical and subtropical countries from South-America to Africa and Asia.21 Its tolerance of various soil and climatic conditions 184

allows a vast distribution within the so called “Jatropha belt” stretching

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

farmers are triggered by the plant’s alleged potential to simultaneously reclaim wasteland, enhance socio-economic development and conserve and/ or restore soil fertility in degraded areas,23 Numerous Jatropha plantations are sprouting in different parts of the continent. Jatropha curcas is believed to have been introduced to Zimbabwe in 1940; however, it is only in recent years that it has gained momentum and popularity. Within the country, Jatropha production has been concentrated in Mudzi, Mutoko, Chiweshe and Binga.24 At the height of its popularity, in 2006, the Forestry Commission named Jatropha the plant of the year.25 Most of the Jatropha is being grown as a hedge or live fence around gardens and homesteads. Very little Jatropha is being grown around fields, but a significant amount is being grown on marginal soils and disused land. In 2007, Environment Africa and the community of Mudzi embarked on a project of poverty reduction in rural areas while enhancing the use of renewable energy, specifically biomass and solar energy.26 Biodiesel production involves the extraction of oil from an oil seed crop such as Jatropha and combining it with alcohol in a process called transestefirication.27 Transestefirication refers to the process of chemically reacting a fat or oil with an alcohol in the presence of a catalyst. Alcohol used is usually methanol or ethanol and the catalyst is usually sodium hydroxide or potassium hydroxide. The main product of transestefirication is biodiesel and the co-product is glycerin. The Department of Research Specialists Services with other private partners are engaging in research and trials of the product focusing on the Agronomic aspects, results are yet to be established considering the production cycle of jatropha.28 The following gives a summary of the biofuel conversion feedstock.

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Table 11.2 Summary of biofuel conversion feedstock. Sugarcane 1 ton of molasses produces 250 litres of ethanol 4%of sugarcane yield is molasses 1 ton of cane produces 40 litres of molasses 1 ton of cane produces 10 litres of ethanol

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

between 30°N and 35°S,22 Expectations from the government, investors and

Jatropha Oil content seed is 30–35% Conversion from oil to biodiesel 1:1 1 tonne of seed produces 300 litres of oil = 30litres of biodiesel Adopted from Sumba, et al. (2009).29

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VALUE CHAIN STAKEHOLDERS AND THEIR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS Numerous stakeholders are involved in the development and diffusion of biofuels and each one has a role to play. The stakeholders involved in the whole biofuels diffusion process in Zimbabwe include:

Figure 11.1 Stakeholder involved in the diffusion and development of biofuels in Zimbabwe

NGOs (Environment Africa, Bingo Trees Trust, WWF))

Ministry of Agriculture

Research Institutions (DRSS, SIRDC, UZ, NUST, CUT Polytechnics Harare & Masvingo

Farmers, Triangle, Hippo Valley, Greenfield Governing Body

Biofuels Industry Stakeholders

Distributors & Retailers

Buying companies processors producers (FineAlt, Transload, Green field)

Ministry of Energy & Power Development

Source: Author

Despite the enormous attention biofuels have received in the country, its full potential is far from being realized. Comparatively, biofuels are doing well in other countries. In India, for instance, the cooperative model has Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

been promoted, whereby small scale farmers sell through their cooperatives then to the markets. Not only does this have the advantage eliminating brokers, but it also encourages collective action. In Zimbabwe, there has been substantial investment to promote biofuels production as a means of economic empowerment, social upliftment and poverty alleviation within marginalised communities. Nonetheless there is little information documented and made accessible, making it difficult to quantify and assess the production of biofuel crops, such as Jatropha. Markets for the different products have not been properly explored or quantified, nor have the costs or returns (both tangible and intangible) to supply raw materials or products to these markets.30 Based on a survey carried out in Mushimbo ward, Mutoko, there are psychological perceptions when it comes to jatropha farming for biofuels. One farmer had this to say: 186

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

money I get for a kilogram is not enough to buy a packet of maputi.”31 This is a clear indication of a lack of incentive and motivation for engaging in Jatropha farming; it partly explains the low productivity at subsistence farming level. This has slowed any meaningful development of the biofuels sector.

Research done by Henning in (2002) indicates that commercial exploitation of the plant is comparable with cotton farming.32 Jatropha seeds contain about 35 per cent of non-edible oil and 6 kg of dry seeds gives about 1.2 litres of oil. Examples from Mali show that villagers who plant 15 km of Jatropha hedges can harvest about 12 tonnes of seeds; which may generate 1800 US$ of cash income when the oil is extracted and the products sold. At least 2 – 3 tonnes of seeds per hectare can be achieved in semi-arid areas. Under good management it is believed that 8–12 tonnes /ha can be obtained, translating into higher returns.33 However, in Zimbabwe, according to the Biomass News (2006), about 794 Kg/ha has been obtained, which is way below the estimated potential.34 From the historical analyses and current status of biofuel production presented so far, it is noted that while biofuels are a noble project, with structures in place for successful production, expectations are far from matching reality. Political unrest and a poor macro economic environment have contributed to the failure of biofuel production. This is exacerbated by climate change and ever increasing energy prices.

TECHNICAL SIDE OF BIOFUELS Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Technology considers technical knowledge, for improving feedstock supply

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

“Surely I cannot put all my energy into picking up jatropha seeds, when the

and energy conversion processes. One of the parameters used to measure how effective or complex biofuels are in replacing fossil fuel is the energy ratio, i.e. the ratio of energy contained in a biofuel, relative to the fossil fuel energy used for its production. What has been missing for a long time in the history of African energy economy are conversion technologies capable of delivering energy to the market competitively on a modest scale appropriate to biomass. The energy ratio from sugarcane to ethanol is 4.9, while the energy ratio from Jatropha ranges from 1.4555 to 1.8846. The net energy balance, which is the difference between energy output and energy input during production, shows the highest value for sugarcane compared to all others. The conversion process is one of the most important steps in the production chain.35 A high yield and low energy consumption are important in promoting future competitiveness of biofuels.

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The Ministry of Energy and Power Development released a national energy draft policy in 2009. Among other things, the draft states that: Zimbabwe has vast and diverse energy resources; the per capita energy consumption is only 24.7 Gigajoules (GJ), compared to an average of 200 GJ for the developed countries. The energy sector contributes about 14 per cent to the country’s GDP.36 The main sources of energy used in Zimbabwe are coal, fuel wood, electricity and petroleum fuels. According to the latest (2009) national energy balance, fuel wood provides the bulk (61 per cent) of the total energy supply, followed by: electricity (13 per cent); liquid fuels (11 per cent); bituminous coal (7 per cent); and unleaded petrol 6 per cent. The draft policy acknowledges that Zimbabwe is endowed with a number of energy resources and there have limitations in the past, hence going forward there is need to look for alternative energy resources from sugarcane, biodiesel and coal conversion into liquid fuels. 37

The 2009 Energy Balance: Figure11.2: Share of consumption by fuel

type by households 1% 13%

7% 11% 1% 6%

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

61%

BITUMINOUS COAL COKE OVEN COKE DIESEL AVIATION KEROSENE UNLEADED PETROL WOOD AND OTHER WASTES ELECTRICITY

Figure 11.3: Share of diesel consumption

19% AGRICULTURE

TRANSPORT

81%

188

Source: Ministry of Energy and Power Development, 2009.

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Diesel has some share in transport and agriculture and transport is the largest consumer of diesel, justifying the need to embark on biofuels to bolster supplies. In Zimbabwe it was the responsibility of NOCZIM to supply seedlings and cuttings to small scale farmers until 2010. Due to limited funding, this project was abandoned and handed over to the Ministry of Energy and Power Development. While NOCZIM had done well in promoting Jatropha production though the provision of seedlings, lack of monitoring and evaluation has resulted in failure of the project, as evidenced by farmers holding on to their feedstock. One farmer in Mount Darwin had this to say, “1 have been holding on to 400Kgs of Jatropha seeds, not knowing where to sell them for the past two seasons”,38

ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN THE DIFFUSION AND DEVELOPMENT OF BIOFUELS Institutions have the mandate to formulate clear energy goals and provide independent information. In order for any change-over from fossil fuels to biofuels (and renewables in general) to be beneficial, in both economic and environmental terms, there is a need for efficient policies and regulations.39 FAO succinctly states that institutions must provide the enabling capacity required to ensure that regulations are adhered to and to analyze data from monitoring in order to revise policies as required. It was with such enthusiasm that came with the biofuel wave that several institutions in the country such as the Harare Polytechnic, SIRDC, National oil company of Zimbabwe (NOCZIM), Fine Alt engineering Biodiesel initiated research and projects for jatropha curcas for biodiesel. NOCZIM was to identify and contract a few Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

strategic partners in all the provinces, who would produce good quality

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

Petrol and Jet A1 are mainly used in road and air transport respectively.

seedlings and germination seed in the future. The objective of this approach was to allow: decentralized Jatropha seedling and seed production; seedling producer and out-grower farmer networking.40 One striking challenge has been a lack of research coordination, minimal flow of information and fragmentation. Communication is one of the characteristics of an innovation and it is important in determining adoption. Most individuals evaluate innovation, not on the basis of scientific research by experts, but through subjective evaluations of near-peers who have adopted the innovation. The biofuel policy and the energy policy are some of the acts that have been used to develop biofuels in the country. Issues relating to environmental impact assessment are not articulated in the energy paper and have raised concerns regarding the sustainability and growth of biofuels in the country.41 The white paper on principles for biofuels development and use

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alludes to the creation of incentives by government for biofuel producers and distributors. The incentives will be in the form of provision of land for biofuels, crop production, training and inputs for seedling production, tax concessions, tax holidays and duty free importation of equipment or accessories for processing feedstock into oil.

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Biofuels were introduced in line with the vision of government to attain self-sufficiency in the provision of fuel for farmers, miners and transporters in the industry. This reflects government’s commitment to the promotion of integrated production systems in the economy, while focusing on import substitution as well as foreign exchange generation. Empirical evidence has it on record that the production of sugarcane and Jatropha is labourintensive and as such creates employment. Nevertheless, the country’s macro-economic situation has not been good; it has been characterised by high inflation, high interest rates, parallel markets, subsidies and price cuts – and this also affected the production of biofuels. It has been difficult for farmers and entrepreneurs to acquire loans from the banks. Zimbabwe is a landlocked country and is heavily dependent on fuel imports, mainly from the Middle East via the Beira Port. This has motivated the need for local production of bio-fuels as an alternative fuel, given the soaring cost of storage, distribution and transportation. Technology innovation makes processes more efficient coupled with economies of scale with reduced cost of production.42

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

ACTORS IN KNOWLEDGE CREATION There are three leading universities in the research of technology development of biofuels namely the University of Zimbabwe, National University of Science and Technology and Chinhoyi University of Technology. Masvingo Polytechnic and Harare polytechnic are also carrying out research at certificate to higher diploma level. Masvingo Polytechnic Technical College began the process of extracting biodiesel from Jatropha in the lab. Immediately, those involved in the government project recognised a need for standards to define performance criteria. The Standards Association of Zimbabwe (SAZ) assigned this task to its Technical Committee CH20: Petroleum Products and Lubricants, expanding its scope to include the Jatropha project. In 2006, Technical Committee CH20 met and chose to adopt ASTM D6751, Specification for Biodiesel Fuel Blend Stock (B100) for Middle Distillate 190

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Committee CH20 planned to adapt it to Jatropha biodiesel.43

GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES AS PLAYERS IN THE DIFFUSION PROCESS The Ministry of Energy and Power Development has overall responsibility for energy issues. The project for biodiesel production falls within the Ministry of Science and Technology and to date it has been supporting FineAlt Biodiesel with a mandate to purchase feedstock for biodiesel production. Initially, the production of biodiesel from Jatropha project was presented to parliament by researchers from the Ministry of Higher Education; it was accepted and later on the project was transferred and housed in the Ministry of Science and Technology. The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Mechanisation Development (MAIID) has a mandate to distribute and allocate land and is strategically positioned to grow Jatropha, but this has not materialised to date. The ministries play a major role in policy formulation and implementation as well as identifying the major investment options and there have been some power struggles and lack of coordination among the different ministries involved. Rumour has it that power struggles also led to the establishment of a multi-billion plant being sited in Mount Hampden instead of in Mutoko, as was originally planned, where Jatropha production has been done for years – but this was perceived as a political campaign. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe embarked on a search for a site until they settled on Mount Hampden. However, the publication did not document why they settled on that site. The plant is described as a white elephant, due to a lack of feedstock, prompting the Governor to remark that there is need to go back to the drawing board and research how Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

to ensure optimal use of the plant. But until then the plant is lying idle,

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

Fuels. Because D6751 was designed for soybean-based biofuels, Technical

raising questions of what will become of it if scaling of production from oil seeds is not prioritised in the next five years.

BIOFUEL INVESTMENT IN ZIMBABWE In 2005 the government declared it the year of investments of promotion. After that declaration, a number of biofuel investments were established in the country. In 2006, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, through its special vehicle project, formed a company called Dermasin Trading (Pvt) Ltd that partnered with Young Woo Investments Limited of South Korea. This was a 50 per cent win-win partnerships. This partnership saw the establishment

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of the Mount Hampden Biodiesel production plant, which has the capacity to produce 90 000 –100 000 litres of biodiesel per year.44 The plant has been customised to utilise any type of feedstock. The company has 25 hectares of Jatropha feedstock around the plant. Since installation, the plant has produced 518 370 litres of diesel in 2008 and 179 340 litres in 2009 from cotton seed supplied by Cargill and Cottco. Another case in point is the bio-energy project in the Nuanesti range of the lowveld in Mwenezi, where 10000ha of land has been cleared to pave the way for sugarcane and bioethanol production. Various environmentalist watchdogs are of the view that despite their potential economic benefits, biofuel investments can lead to human displacement and disenfranchisement, if not properly guided.45 Planting of approximately 11 500 hectares of sugarcane saw about 500 families displaced since construction began in 2010. While attracting foreign investment and creating a conducive environment for biofuel production, governments should also provide incentives to investors who implement environmentally friendly practices through feedstocks, tax rebates and bio-fuel production and they should support smallholders farmers.46

CONCLUSION The chapter through the different system of structures unraveled the dynamics and the intricacies of the development and diffusion of biofuels in Zimbabwe. Gobal trends toward development of renewable sources of energy have been motivated by energy fuel supply bottlenecks and high international prices. Zimbabwe introduced biofuels with the aim of averting the energy Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

crisis, for social and economic empowerment as well as for agricultural development. Historical event analyses applied in the chapter provides the historical developments of the energy industry as it helps policy makers to draw lessons for the future of energy innovation system. There are various factors that affect adoption and diffusion of biofuels in the country; these include: the technology, institutions, economic development and policy. Key stakeholders for biofuel diffusion in Zimbabwe include: the Ministry of Science and Technology, the MOMIID, the Ministry of Education, Trade and Industry, as well as the Ministry of Economic Development. Despite the introduction of a task force and the development of a draft policy scaling up the production of biofuels has remained a challenge. The inter-ministerial task force’s target of 10 per cent import substitution has been partially fulfilled with the introduction of ethanol. Some of the chal192

lenges identified include: lack of blending policy, limited infrastructure

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

clear standards for biofuel products has impinged on the success of this initiative. Current blending at E10 has not been totally accepted but the consumers with fears of it burning the engines. Zimbabwe in the past decade has implemented biofuels and has relied heavily to a greater extent on strategies rather policies. It remains the prerogative of the private sector in bioethanol production through vertical integration to fill this gap. The introduction of biofuels was necessary and a great move judging from the advantages they had and how appropriate they were at the time and still are, however it is the institutional, economic and political structures that have affected the successful diffusion. While diffusion of biofuels is taking place in most African countries, this is in varying in quantities and at different costs. Promoting technological innovation requires a holistic approach, which is important for ensuring that innovation contributes to social development.47 Smallholder players can successfully turn around biofuel development on condition they are provided with the necessary support and with proper coordination and a clear policy framework.

NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

Edquist, C. 2001. The systems of innovation approach and innovation policy: an account of the state of the art. Aalborg: DRUID.

2

Negro, S. and Hekkert, M. 2007.

3

Hekkert, M.P., R.A.A. Suurs, S.O. Negro, S. Kuhlmann, and R.E.H.M. Smits. 2007.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Functions of innovation systems: a new approach for analysing technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 4: 413–432. ---Hekkert, M.P., R.A.A. Suurs, S.O. Negro, S. Kuhlmann, and R.E.H.M. Smits. 2007. Functions of innovation systems: a new approach for analysing technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 74, no. 4: 413–432.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

and lack of transport appropriate to ethanol blending/biofuels. Lack of

---Jacobsson, S., and A. Johnson. 2000. The diffusion of renewable energy technology: an analytical framework and key issues for research. Energy Policy 28, no. 9: 625–40. 4

Markard and Worch, H. 2006. Technological innovation systems and the resource based view – Resources at the firm, network and system level.

5

Notes from the field and archives and personal key informant interviews were stored in Microsoft word file, classified and systematically allocated to specific systematic functions.

6

Van de Ven, A.H., D.E. Polley, R. Garud, and S. Venkataraman. 1999. The Innovation Journey. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

7

(Negro, 2007, Hekkert et al, 2008).

8

Jupesta, J.P arayil, G. and Harayama, Y. 2010. The development of biofuel from diffusion and stakeholder interaction.

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9

Makore, G. and Mtisi, S. 2010. Community Participation in Biofuels Crop production in Zimbabwe. A focus on the policy and practical aspects. ZELA.

10 Matondi.B.P., Havnevick, K. and Beyene, A. 2011. Biofuels, land grabbing and food security in Africa. 11 Makore, et al. 2010. 12 Bernstein, L. 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers. 13 Mujeyi.K 2009. Biofuels Development in Zimbabwe: Emerging Issues and potential impacts. 14 Zimbabwe Sugar Association. 2007. Zimbabwean Adaptation to the European Union Sugar Regime Reform. Final Report. February 2007. Harare. 15 Shumba, E.M., Carlson, H.O., Kojwang and Sibanda, M. 2009. Biofueling Southern Africa. A sugarcane bioethanol study in Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia. Regional synthesis Report. WWF–SARPO. 16 Esterhuizen, D. 2010. Biofuels situation update 2010. Global Agricultural Information Network Report. Pretoria, RSA. 17 The Daily News. Sunday September 04, 2011. Accessedon line on 04/11 2011. 18 Zimbabwe Medium Term Plan 2011–2015. 19 (Mugabe speech 2007) 20 Collenel(2009). Towards energy security. 21 Heller, J. 1996. Physic nut (Jatropha curcas): Promoting the conservation and Use of underutilized and neglected crops. Institute of Plant Genetics and Crop Plant Research, Gatersleben/International Plant Genetic Resources Institute (IPGR), Rome, Italy. 22 Johnson, A. and S. Jacobsson. ,2000. Inducement and blocking mechanisms in the development of a new industry: the case of renewable energy technology in Sweden. In Technology and the market. Demand, users and innovation, ed 23 ibid. 24 Mawire, B. 2008. Cost and benefit analysis of jatropha production. 25 Karavani et al (2011)

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

26 Mawire, B. 2010. Environment Africa Annual report 27 Shumba, E.M. Carlson, A., Kojwang, H., Sibanda, M. and Masuka,M. 2009. Biofuel Investments in Southern Africa. A situational Analysis in Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe.WWW–SARPO. 28 Mavenkeni, L, (2011. Jatropha curcas. Agronomy Research Institute, Department of Research and Specialist Services, Harare, Zimbabwe. 29 Shumba et al. 2009. 30 Jatropha in Zimbabwe is being sold at a price of$ US100 a tone; that’s essentially 10cents/kg, compared to a cash crop like maize, which is being sold at $US 285per tone, while sugarcane is at $US600/tonne. 31

Maputi refers to roasted maize.

32 Henning, R.K. 2008. Jatropha curcas L in Africa. An Evaluation. Global Facilitation Unit for Underutilized Species (GFUUS), Weissensberg, Germany. 33 Karavangani, C,( 2011) Jatropha production in Zimbabwe, uses, opportunities and challenges. 194

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35 Jupesta, J. 2010. Impact of the Introduction of Biofuel in the Transportation Sector in Indonesia. Sustainability. 2(6): p. 1831–1848. 36 (Ministry of Energy and Power Development (MoEPD) Energy Balance, 2000) 37 National energy balance bulletin 2009. Ministry of Energy, Power and Development 38 Stakeholder questionnaire administered. 39 FAO. 2002. Bioenergy for Development, Technical and Environmental Dimensions. 40 Mashambe, P. 2011. Article Bulletin on Energy Situation. 41 Government of Zimbabwe (cited as GoZ, 2007a). Draft Energy Policy. Ministry of Energy and Power Development. December 2007. 42 Jupesta, J.. Impact of the Introduction of Biofuel in the Transportation Sector in Indonesia. Sustainability. 2010. 2(6): p. 1831–1848. 43 Standards association of Zimbabwe. 44 Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. 2006. Towards food and fuel self –sufficiency. Oiling the wheel of the economy. Transload Enterprises (Pvt) Ltd. 45

Daily News 2011

46 Shumba et al. 2009. 47 Fichman, R.G. 1999. The Diffusion

and assimilation of Information Technology

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Innovations.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIFFUSION OF BIOFUELS AS AN ADAPTATION STRATEGY IN ZIMBABWE

34 Zimbabwe Biomass News. 1996. Plant Oil. Zimbabwe’s sustainable oil for the future. Biomass Users Network 2:1–8.

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Defining parameters for sustainable hydropower generation in the light of climate change A case study of Zambia’s Kafue Flats Shingirirai Savious Mutanga and Nomasonto Magano

INTRODUCTION

T

he world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. In Africa, hy-

dropower contributes 90 per cent of renewable energy generation.1 However

hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to changes in global and regional climate change. The uncertainties are accentuated by ever changing and increasing competing priorities on water resources. Current debates have witnessed a growing public and policy maker interest in the extent to which hydropower can meet the Africa’s future electricity and environmental demands. This chapter provides an understanding of the complexities around hydropower generation in a climate constrained world, compounded with huge competing priorities for water. The chapter acknowledges that a forCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

ward-looking energy strategy calls for a holistic approach to climate-related initiatives. Apart from climate change concerns, hydropower encompasses a highly heterogeneous set of socio-technical systems. The chapter thus adopts complexity science in the form of systems dynamics to aid in characterizing the huge complexities associated with hydropower generation. System dynamics and its principles of feedback, non-linearity and delay effects has helped many managers and policy makers/planners to think through how a strategy might or might not work, resulting in higher success potential, and what kind of consequences, both intended and unintended might emerge (to highlight points of leverage and risks of transition breakdown). The promise of complexity science has therefore been applied to define the parameters of sustainable power generation confronting the physical, socio-economic, bio-societal and technical factors that inherently 196

cross traditional boundaries.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

This section defines and highlights evolving hydropower generation technologies and the role they play in ensuring energy security. The section also describes Africa’s richness in hydropower potential. It culminates by illuminating the case for both large and small hydro schemes as a promising alternative energy source.

DEFINITION, TYPES AND CLASSIFICATION OF HYDROPOWER SCHEMES ‘Hydro’ comes from the Greek word hydra, meaning water. Hydro electricity is electricity produced from the energy contained in the downhill flow of water from rivers and lakes.2 Given its long history, hydropower is the most mature of the renewable energy industries. Originally, hydroelectric power stations were small and built next to waterfalls and close to towns because it was not possible to send the electrical energy over great distances. There is now large scale use of hydro electricity because improvements in electricity transmission means it can now be sent over hundreds of kilometers to where it is required.3 ■

Hydropower schemes can be can be categorized into four main schemes, namely:

■

Storage schemes: dam impounds water in a reservoir

■

Runoff schemes: use of natural flow: Wwir can enhance continuity of the flow.

■

Diverging schemes: water is channelled from river or lake.

■

Pumped storage: incorporates two rivers.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

The basic conversion technology for hydropower energy involves the building of big dams across flowing waters and creating reservoirs.4 Water in the reservoirs is subsequently released, in a controlled form to maximize the kinetic energy of the flow. This kinetic energy is then used to turn turbines

DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

HYDROPOWER AS AN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SYSTEM

that feed into a generator, then to a converter or inverter and finally to a transformer that converts the energy into electricity.5,6 This electricity is then connected to a grid and distributed. A key prerequisite for utilisation of hydropower conversion technologies is the existence of reliable natural water sources. As such, hydropower technologies are most relevant to areas that have permanent rivers.7 The amount of electricity generated from a system depends not only on its capacity (size of turbine and generator), but also on the amount of flowing water available,8 and the height of the surface of the water above the turbine. This height is called the ‘head’ and the greater the head, the more

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energy available to spin a turbine, which in turn drives a generator that produces electricity. The greater the quantity of water, the greater the number and size of turbines that may be spun and the greater the power output of the generators.9In times of drought, water to hydro electricity systems are limited and they have a reduced electricity output.10 Alternative technologies for hydropower include pumped water storage,11,12 river current energy conversion systems (RCECS)13 and the technologies for micro hydropower stations.14 Hydro electric systems are generally classified according to the size of their generating capacity. However, there is no clear consensus regarding the classification of scale of these schemes. This chapter adopted the World Commission on Dams’ definition of 10MW installed capacity as large, while a mini plant is generally 1MW and a micro plant is generally less than 100KW. Considering the investment cost required, the storage and the output, this chapter classified the schemes into small, medium and large, as indicated in Table 12.1.

Table 12.1: Classification of hydropower schemes. Category Small

Output (MW)

Storage

Investment Cost

300

Dam and Reservoir

>2 (USD M/MW)

Large

Source: IEA Hydropower Implementing Agency

ROLE OF HYDROPOWER IN ENSURING ENERGY SECURITY Energy derived from moving water is environmentally benign compared to Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

that obtained from burning fossil fuels,15 Hydro energy does not lead to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and therefore does not contribute significantly to global warming (see Figure 12.1). It was previously held that dam reservoirs do not emit any GHGs. However, this view is changing due to Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) studies undertaken. An analysis of 85 existing hydropower reservoirs found out that they collectively emit 1/6th of the GHG emissions currently assumed and are not major contributors to the greenhouse gas problem.16 Under the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised nations are committed to reducing their GHG emissions, including carbon dioxide and methane.17 One mechanism for achieving emission reduction is the CDM approach, whereby countries can reduce emissions by purchasing emission credits from other countries that invest in projects and programs that avoid GHG emission and 198

produce a net global reduction in emission.18

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

Carbon production associated with industrial materials (kg C/kg material)

4 3

1800

2 1500 Concrete

Glass

Steel

Copper

Aluminium

1 1200

300

200

H yd

ro

W in

d

ve Wa

Geo

-

Sol

ar

water

0

therm

ther

100

vy d er H ea B re e

s s R V P W o l a r P i o m a s N at g a ro l e u m S B Pet

Co a

l

Figure 12.1: Carbon production from various energy systems19. International Energy Outlook 2003 predicted that the consumption of renewable energy worldwide will grow by 56 per cent, from 32 quadrillion Btu in 2001 to 50 quadrillion Btu in 2025.20 Much of the projected growth in renewable energy generation is expected to result from the completion of large hydroelectric facilities in developing countries. These will be located particularly in developing Asia, where the need to expand electricity production often outweighs concerns about environmental impact and the relocation of populations to make way for large dams and reservoirs.21

THE CASE FOR LARGE SCALE HYDROPOWER PLANTS Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

The biggest sector of renewable power in operation worldwide is large hydro, with some 945GW generated in 2008.22 Large scale systems require a very large dam, or a series of dams, to store the enormous quantities of water they need. When full, the Kariba Dam (between Zimbabwe and

DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Carbon production per unit of energy (see C/MW yr)

Zambia) holds 160 billion cubic meters of water. Such dams are often used as a resource for irrigation and fishing as well as supplying water for power generation. Among the large hydro projects completed in 2010 were: the 1070MW Nam Theun 2 scheme in Laos; the 2.4GW Jin’anqiao plant in China; and the 460MW Tana Beles dam in Ethiopia.23 There are several environmental, social and economic challenges associated with large scale hydropower schemes.

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ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Hydropower plants alter the ecology (landscape and riverscape) around them; this leads to disruption of the environment, particularly during the construction phase of large power schemes. The best place for hydropower plants is usually the best for vegetation; when a reservoir is built, it is usually impossible to remove all the vegetation in the area. Once the plant is under water, it decomposes and releases carbon content in the form of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane). Carbon dioxide is formed in the presence of oxygen, while methane is formed in the absence of oxygen below one-meter in depth. When carbon dioxide is produced, it removes oxygen from the water and this is harmful to fish and other forms of life. Also, water without oxygen is slightly acidic and in the long run it will damage the hydropower facility.24 In any river, there is sedimentation, such as sand, soil, stones, boulders, wood and so on. These materials accumulate at the rate of flow of the river and thus water moves large amounts downstream. Too much sedimentation passing through can cause problems to the hydropower facility; however filtering techniques are costly and removing the sediment can have a drastic effect on downstream agriculture. Another problem with removing sediment is that once the water goes “hungry” it will try to capture sediment and thus erode the bed and banks of a river downstream. This erosion can cause damage to property as well as lowering the local bed, which will cause plants with shallow roots to die.25 One major environmental challenge with hydropower is allocation of water to agriculture and hydropower plants. Dams that are constructed for hydropower generation usually compete with use of the water for irrigation

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

and fishing.26

SOCIAL AND ECONOMICAL According to research, millions of people have been displaced due to hydropower development, especially those with farms. People who have been displaced have been poorly compensated for their loss. It has also been shown in research that these people have high rates of disease infection, a high rate of poverty and a low standard of living.27 Proponents of large scale hydropower schemes argue that developments have a positive impact on communities in terms of employment, albeit that this employment is only for a limited period of time. (The construction and operation of the dam creates employment, but when the dam is completed, the employment will diminish.28) 200

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Worldwide there is a growing trend of expansion in small hydro power schemes that meet both domestic and external market demands. Small hydropower technologies with a lower environmental impact, low costs and which are reliable are proving to be extremely popular and appease critics of hydropower and meet energy demands.29 Small hydropower systems (SHPs) – less than 10 MW – have proven to be an attractive resource, especially in remote parts of Africa, as they catalyze development in such communities.30 In environmental terms, SHPs are more sustainable than large-scale systems. The eastern and southern regions in Africa have numerous pico, micro, mini and small hydropower sites that can be developed to supply isolated areas or feed into the national grid.31 Development of small hydropower plants in these regions should be given high priority due to its linkages to rural development. Africa has many rivers and tributaries that would be suitable for micro-hydropower projects.32 There are already some successful micro-hydropower projects in Africa. These exist in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Rwanda and Kenya. The Tungukabri micro-hydro power project in Kenya is one such project. The Mbuiru village in Kenyan is a typical example where the people are generally poor farmers without access to electricity. Most families spend at least a third of their income on kerosene for light and cooking, or they resort to chopping trees for firewood.33 The micro-hydropower project was organised by Practical Action East Africa and the Kenyan Ministry of Energy. Villagers worked once a week or more for 2 years to build it and it now generates about 18 KW of electrical energy: enough to benefit 200 homes.34 Another striking example is the new mini hydropower station built at Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Kavumu in Ngororero District (Rwanda), which has boosted business in the area. The local leader had this to say. Doing business is more profitable in the area and these activities have also

DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

THE CASE FOR SMALL SCALE HYDROPOWER PLANTS

increased the sector’s tax revenue target from Rwf 18 million to Rwf 19 million, The power plant serves schools, a health centre, bars, hair salons, shops and 45 homes in the area, with many traders operating beyond 10 o’clock, unlike in the past when we didn’t have power”35.

In Zambia, about 10 billion Kwacha will be spent on the privately-owned Mporokoso Mini-Hydro-Power project to increase power output five-fold and service the Mporokoso District and surrounding areas.36 Mporokoso MiniHydro Power project witnessed a partnership with an investor from Serbia and Zambia Limited in raising the $2 million for upgrading power generation

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from the 200 kilowatts (KW) to one megawatt (MW).37 Mporokoso District has a total requirement of 0.3 megawatt; hence the upgrade is enough to supply the entire district and surrounding areas.38 Often a major setback in successful implementation of hydropower projects is the cost 39 and poor access to finance.40 Increased private sector investment and support of independent power producers are the enabling environments required for small scale hydropower generation in South Africa. Domestic and international projects in Africa have witnessed overwhelming financial support from several Chinese banks. Often these projects use Chinese companies, such as: Sinohydro, which construct hydro projects; and Dong fang, a manufacturer of hydro turbines. Collectively, these companies hold 80 per cent of the total market share and are horizontally integrated across the sector.41 A number of initiatives through UN Agencies are ongoing to support large and small hydropower projects in Africa.42

HYDROPOWER IN AFRICA In Africa, hydropower contributes 90 per cent of renewable energy generation.43 The continent has enormous exploitable hydropower potential, with the lowest hydropower utilization rates.44 In terms of energy generation trends, hydroelectricity is a mere 6 per cent compared to coal and oil, which are above 25 per cent – as shown on Figure 12.2.45 38%

20%

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

24%

6%

5% 1%

Oil

Gas

Coal

Hydroelectric

Nuclear

Geothermal, Solar, Wind & Wood

Figure 12.2: Energy generation by types of energy sources.46 Recent studies have shown that some of the challenges in the generation 202

of power from hydro include socio- economic concerns, and more recently

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ronmental impact assessments. The latter is argued to derail or stop many initiatives. Issues around access and servitudes that relate to ownership of the vital resources, the legislative environment that calls for water use permits, funding constraints and power purchase agreements often crop up.47 This may be explained by theories, among which include structural inequality discourse, which occurs when there is unequal access to and control over water resources:48 a concept referred to as resource capture and ecological marginalization.49 Ohlsson and Lundqvist 200050 developed a component of this discourse as induced scarcity, with a specific category that looks at depletion of the resource base as a result of pollution. Closely related to this is the environmental scarcity discourse,51 which has a strong environmental dimension to it, in which depletion and pollution of the resource reduce the total volume available. These challenges certainly need to be faced if the potential of hydropower is to be fully realised. In addition the decentralization of renewable energy can aid in promoting small hydropower schemes in Africa. Having identified some of the challenges being faced by hydropower schemes, complexity science in the form of systems dynamics has been used to aid in characterizing the huge complexities associated with hydropower generation and to define key aspects to be considered in order for Africa to tap into its enormous water resources.

SYSTEMS THINKING: SYSTEMS DYNAMICS System thinking and system dynamics are based on the concept of systems. A system can be defined as a ‘complex whole of related parts’.52 It is the Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

summation of different parts or entities related to each other that constitute the observed whole. Talking about a system implies, implicitly, that one is cognisant that an observed phenomenon is an outcome of underlying complex inter-relationships.53

DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

vulnerability due to changing climate and often the application of envi-

Systems Analysis is a structured way of analysing complex inter-relationships that are problematic or simply of interest to mankind. At the heart of systems thinking is the recognition that factors behind a problematic situation are inter-dependent, that causal effect between these factors is often two-way, and that the impact of action is neither instantaneous nor linear. It is a formal, abstract and structured cognitive endeavour on thinking about systems in general.54 Systems thinking makes explicit causal-effect assumptions between related variables in a system, enabling independent assessment and improvement of mental models behind particular thinking.

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System dynamics is a methodology based on systems thinking. It is grounded in control theory and modern theory of nonlinear dynamics.55 System dynamics provides a means to capture complex relationships and feedback effects within a set of interrelated activities and processes.56 It focuses on the results of the interplay of feedback loops that could be reinforcing or balancing loops.57 This study adopts a definition of system dynamics as it being a computer-aided approach to evaluate the inter-relationships of different components and activities within complex systems.58The methodology is strong in increasing understanding of the observed phenomenon and in establishing consequences of different options available at a decision point. Other rnodeling technologies do not enjoy these tremendous capabilities. Among these has been the application of applied stochastic dynamic programming for optimised operation policy in terms of energy generation and flood mitigation.59. Recently, far more powerful computer programs for system dynamics modeling have been created for both Windows and Macintosh computers (including PowerSim, STELLA, iThink, Extend and Vensim). These computer programs offer object-oriented languages, which have an advantage in simulation, because they are capable of using objects in the development of system description and modeling the system structure. Application of system dynamics provides policy makers with a practical tool that they can use to solve important problems.60 In addition, the main principles of systems dynamics are equally applicable to engineering and non-engineering systems.

SYSTEMS DYNAMICS IN THE CONTEXT OF HYDROPOWER GENERATION Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Alternative forms of energy, such as hydropower, encompass a highly heterogeneous set of socio-technical systems. A system dynamics model can simulate an entire hydroelectric generation system, including reservoirstream, turbine-generator units, transmission systems and load-markets. It simulates various complexities within the system, including: non-linearity in the water system and electric power system; changes in system behaviour over time; cause-effect among components in the system; key points in the system needed to solve the problem; and feedback between cause and effect.61 Gerald Sehlke and Jake Jacobson62 applied systems dynamics to model the trans-boundary system of the Bear River Basin. The study found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and ground water data and for simulating interactions between these sources within a given basin. It’s also useful for integrating complex 204

hydrologic data with other information (e.g. policy and regulatory and

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using a Taiwanese case study, Chao Ho, et al.63 applied systems dynamics to assess the complexity in water deficit and economic profits as they pertain to planning and management of regional water resources. Other studies have also applied participatory systems dynamics. Participatory system dynamics as a methodology creates a transparent nexus of science, policy options, social concerns and local knowledge that enhances discussion of issues surrounding the use of natural resources.64 For purposes of this chapter, we confine ourselves to demonstrating how the construction of a causal loop diagram facilitates the process of defining key parameters for sustainable hydropower generation. The next section provides casual loop diagrams that capture the, the physical parameters (including the implications of climate change, economic, technological as well as the political and social dimensions), which are key in explaining factors that should be considered for hydropower generation.

CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAMS IN THE CONTEXT OF HYDROPOWER GENERATION Figure 12.3: Casual loop diagram illustrating physical parametes. Physical Parameters: A prerequisite for hydropower generation is a reliable natural water source. The physical parameters therefore take recognition of some of the environmental concerns mentioned in the case for large hydropower schemes above. Often the amount of water in Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

the reservoir is controlled by sensitive parameters and their relative sensitivities, such as cell-type topography, river cross sections, river Source: Author.

DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

management criteria) to produce a decision support system. In addition,

flow, dams and spillway, rainfall and evapo-transpiration and soil

moisture. These are often referred to as the catchment area characteristics. As illustrated in Figure 12.3, the more the precipitation, the more the runoff (which is, however, controlled by the catchment area type. Increased runoff might result in higher levels of water in the reservoir. However, this might increase sedimentation, reducing the amount of water in the reservoir. Assuming the topography is gentle, with high vegetation cover, this may increase the rate of percolation, increasing the ground water flow and subsequently increasing the amount of water in the reservoir. In other words,

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a consideration of hydrological parameters should take into account the ecosystem or ecology of the catchment, its hydrology in terms of flow rates looking at flow duration curves. Sensitivity parameters such as Surface flow, base flow, evapo-transpiration, time of concentration, surface roughness are thus key in determining the availability of sufficient water for hydropower generation.

Figure 12.4: Casual loop diagram illustrating the nexus between climate change and development. Climate Change: As illustrated in Figure 12.4, the more the energy generation from fossil fuels, the more the effects of climate

change.

Essentially,

abstraction of fossil fuels leads to increased emissions into the atmosphere, leading to rising Source: Author.

temperatures and subsequently resulting in frequent floods and

droughts, which can retard development. The impacts of climate change have been one of the major drivers of transition to renewable forms of energy. Hydropower generation is thus one key alternative form of energy which response as a mitigation and adaptation measure to the intractable climate change. Development , however, creates more job opportunities, which can improve people’s quality of life, thus enhancing further economic growth.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Figure 12.5: Casual loop diagram illustrating some Decision Support System parameters.

206 Source: Author.

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allocation of water resource use for hydropower generation, which can in turn imply competition with other water users (such as agriculture, tourism and fishing). The policy framework might influence investment in hydropower (HP) plants. Investment may also come from donor funding, such as multi-lateral organizations. Other exogenous factors (such as technology type, technology efficiency and human capital) may influence the cost of both small scale and large scale plants. Technology cost could be classified into three main categories, namely: ■

Initial investment, when introducing the technology: often the main barrier to get hydropower projects off the ground is the cost.65

■

Maintenance costs - this includes human investment.

■

For large scale plants, indirect costs are incurred for maintaining catchment characteristics.

Technology costs may therefore influence overall investment in hydropower generation. Assuming there is good investment in HP plants, this would imply more energy generated from hydropower and reducing the gap between the actual and desired hydropower thus enhances economic development. While the cost per unit of electricity will depend on the site, rather than the size of the dam and the power station, less initial investment is required for small systems,66 Recent research has shown that there is considerable scope for development and optimisation of technology to reduce the unit costs of electricity from small systems. Other infrastructure development costs can sometimes be reduced on micro schemes. Seasonal dam storage costs can be avoided if the required flow is less than the low river flow;67 hence most African countries could capitalise on the micro potential hydropower sites Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

in order to meet the country’s energy demand. On the other hand introduction of HP Plants might lead to displacements aggravating potential conflicts on water resources and people. As an example, perhaps inadvertently the construction of Gibe III dam in Ethiopia has

DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

As illustrated in Figure 12.5, government policy can positively influence the

lent the views of the dam’s opponents more weight.68 It has become clear that it is the thousands of Ethiopians who, for centuries, have lived and depended on the riverine environment who will bear the brunt when dams and hydropower plants are constructed. For this to be endured, they must also be primary beneficiaries of the economic development that hydropower can bring. This demonstrates the complexity and potential political instability that could stem from adopting hydropower as a technological option. In summary, the role of multi-level stakeholders in water abstraction, the environmental parameters, the influence of socio-economic factors, the political framework, together with technology and human capital, are key

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decision support factors to be considered when implementing sustainable hydropower schemes. Figures 12.3 – 12.5 attempt to capture some of the socio-economic, political, physical and technological complexities associated with hydropower generation and make it evident that systems thinking can be a potential decision support tool. The following section provides a case study of the Kafue Flats in Zambia, which illustrates the interplay on some of the described key factors for sustainable hydropower generation. This case study includes a plethora of factors that describe the identified parameters for energy generation. Among these is the implementation of Environmental Flows (EF). By definition, EF encapsulates that a sufficient amount of water is left in a river to ensure that downstream environmental, social and economic functions are sustained. The case study is also unique in that power stations in the catchment operate on a managed flood release basis: a controlled release of water from the reservoir is done to inundate a specific area of flood plain or river downstream to restore and maintain ecological processes.

KAFUE CASE STUDY The Kafue Flats of Zambia is an extensive floodplain or wetland covering an area of approximately 6500km.2 The Flats lie between longitude 260 – 280 and latitude 15020’ and –15055’ South along the Kafue River Basin in Southern Zambia.69 Average rainfall is about 800mm with temperatures ranging between 190C and 360C.70 The average annual flow is estimated at 300m3/s.71 Kafue Gorge and Itezhi Tezhi Dam were constructed during the 1970’s. The Kafue is an important economic resource for Zambia, as it produces approximately 50 per cent of the country’s hydroelectricity along the river.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Figure 12.7: Study Area.

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Source:

Modeling and simulation studies in the Kafue have described in detail most of the environmental or physical factors to consider for sustainable hydropower generation. In particular, physical factors (i.e. hydrological parameters) have been well documented. Due to conflicting demands for water in the Kafue Flats, many studies have been contracted since the late 1970’s. In order to predict water levels, discharge and the flooding extent, a RIBASI model was developed utilizing all time variant datasets recorded between 1950 and 1979.The model uses topographic schematisation. Balasubrahmanyam and Abou-Zeid in 1982 revealed that water management was responsible for the fluctuations in flooding extent, especially between Nyimba and Kafue Gorge.72 Water levels dropped from an average of 978m to 976.5m after the Itezhi Tezhi and Kafue dams became operational. Figure 12.8 demonstrates a model of flood probability zones developed using a digital elevation model. Thompson and Mumba 2005 also observed a change in flood patterns, with some parts (such as Itezhi Tezhi) being drier with short flood durations, while the Kafue and Nyimba are now wetter, having long flood durations and some permanently flooded portions. The Kafriba hydrological model, which explored the spatio-temporal information of flood regimes, was an extension of the RIBASI model with the spatial component. The model took into account a number of parameters, which includes: cell-type topography, river cross sections, river flow, dams and spillway, water diversion for other uses, in and out flow boundary of the area liable to flooding, rainfall and evapo-transpiration, and soil moisture.

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

Figure 12.8: Wet Season Flood Probability Zones (1990–2006) and SRTM DEM

209 Source:73

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PARAMETERS FOR HYDROPOWER GENERATION

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Figure 12.9: Land use change between 1998 and 2008 in the Kafue Flats

Source: Author

As shown on Figure 12.9, there has been an expansion in agricultural and built-up areas, signifying an increase in demand for water. Hence competing priorities have motivated multinational organizations, the government Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

and energy producer (ZESCO), to convene and develop a common understanding for the management of water resources in the Kafue Flats. This demonstrates some of the identified decision support system parameters. However, electricity generation trends in the Kafue Gorge do not reflect an optimum generation capacity. Figure 12.10 illustrates the energy demand forecast for Zambia. Some of the main drivers of electricity demand and deficit include: economic development leading to unprecedented growth in electricity consumption; inadequate investment in generation and transmission infrastructure over the last 20 – 30 years. The policy framework cannot meet typical investment requirements, as there are very low tariffs and these are not cost reflective. One of the major challenges highlighted by ZESCO has been the ever-rising cost of generating, transmitting and supplying electricity.74 This explains 210

the technological cost effect discussed i the decision support system casual

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such as copper, steel, aluminum and oil (which are major inputs in manufacturing of the electrical equipment used by the parastatal). Apart from technological failure, lack of human capital and proper financial investments are some of the key challenges in attaining sustainable hydropower generation from the Kafue Gorge.

Figure 12.10: Electricity demand forecast for Zambia. 3000 2500

MW

2000 1500 1000 500

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

Years Demand

Installed Capacity Source:75

CONCLUSION Sustainable hydropower generation is characterised by huge complexities, Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

which require meticulous recognition if the technology is to play a key role in energy supply. The parameters for hydropower generation are not only physical (such as the sensitive hydrological factors) but encompass a heterogeneous set of socio-economic, political and technological factors with

DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

loop. The costs in this case emanate from a rise in the price of commodities

proper strategies for climate change adaptive and mitigation measures. Given the ever-increasing and evolving competing water demands, the water rationality concept and the hydro solidarity concept should be retained to ensure sustainable hydropower generation. In defining the parameters for sustainable hydropower generation, systems dynamics aids in understanding the complexity in power generation using the technology. Through its cause and effect analysis, represented using casual loop diagrams, the tool captures most of the key components to be considered in outlining prerequisite parameters.

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Despite threatening climate change impacts and in recognition of the unprecedented electricity demands in Africa, small hydropower schemes could answer many of the more complex problems of energy supply. Small hydropower, with its multiple advantages of low-cost and a reliable form of energy, is in the forefront of many countries’ efforts to achieve energy self-sufficiency: thus it’s a good capital investment. In a nutshell summary the role of multi level stakeholders in water abstraction, the environmental parameters, the influence of socio-economic factors, political framework together with technology and human capital are key decision support factors to be considered when implementing sustainable hydropower schemes.

NOTES AND REFERENCES 1

WAEA. 2008. Hydropower resource assessment of Africa. Ministerial conference on Water for Agriculture and Energy in Africa. The Challenges of Climate Change. Sirte, Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Accessed online 15 March 2011. www.sirtewaterandenergy.org/ docs/2009/Sirte_2008_BAK_3.pdf

2

Christine Creagh, Philip Jennings and Mary Dale. 2003. Hydro Electricity. Fact Sheet 6. Australian Institute of Energy.

3

Christine Creagh, Philip Jennings and Mary Dale. 2003.

4

Kaggwa, M., Mutanga, S. and Simelane T. 2011. Factors Determining the Affordability

Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

of Renewable Energy. A Note for South Africa. AISA Policy Brief 65. Pretoria. 5

Ibid

6

Ghoniem, F. 2010. Needs, resources and climate change: clean and efficient conversion technologies. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 36: pp. 1–7.

7

Kaggwa, M., Mutanga, S, and Simelane ,T. 2011. Factors Determining the Affordability of Renewable Energy. A Note for South Africa. AISA Policy Brief 65. Pretoria.

8

Australian Institute of Energy (AIE). 2008. Fact Sheet 6: Hydro Electricity. Accessed online 15 Dec 2011. www.aie.org.au.

9

Christine Creagh, Philip Jennings and Mary Dale. 2003.

10 AIE. 2008. 11 Deane, J.P., Gallachóir, B.P. and McKeogh, E.J. 2010. Techno-economic review of existing and new pumped hydro energy storage plant. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14, pp. 1293–1302. 12 Kaggwa, M,, Mutanga, S. and Simelane, T. 2011. Factors Determining the Affordability of Renewable Energy. A Note for South Africa. AISA Policy Brief 65. Pretoria. 13 Khan, M.J., Iqbal, M.T. and Quaicoe, J.E. 2008. River current energy conversion systems: progress, prospects and challenges. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 12, pp. 2177–2193. 14 Kaggwa, M., Mutanga, S. and Simelane, T. 2011. Factors Determining the Affordability of Renewable Energy. A Note for South Africa. AISA Policy Brief 65. Pretoria.

212

15 WAEA 2008: Hydropower resource assessment of Africa. Ministerial Conference on Water for Agriculture and Energy in Africa. The Challenges of Climate Change. Sirte,

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16 Nathan Barros, Jonathan J. Cole, Lars J. Tranvik, Yves T. Prairie, David Bastviken, Vera L. M. Huszar, Paul del Giorgio and Fábio Roland. 2011. Carbon emission from hydroelectric reservoirs linked to reservoir age and latitude. Nature Geoscience. 17 Nathan. Barros. et al,. 2011. 18 Nathan. Barros. et al., 2011. 19 Holmer-Dixon, T.F. 1996. Environmental scarcity, mass violence and limits to ingenuity, In current history. 95 (0) 359–365. 20 International Energy Outlook, IE0 2003. U.S Department of Energy. 21 International Energy Outlook. 2003. 22 UNEP 2011. Global trends in renewable energy investment. Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy 23 UNEP. 2011. 24 Gabriel D 2010. The challenges facing hydroelectric power. Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy. 25 Gabriel, D. 2010. 26 Gabriel, D. 2010. 27 Gabriel, D. 2010. 28 Gabriel, D. 2010. 29 Energy Weekly News 26 August 2011: Research and Markets; Global Hydro Power Report Ed1 2011.Online Accessed 30 October 2011. http://www.researchandmarkets. com/research/befe42/global_hydro_power) 30 Kamelia Youssef & S Mutanga. 2011. Energy revolution in Africa and its future potential in supplying energy to the world. In Energy Transition in Africa. AISA. Pretoria. 31 Kamelia Youssef & S. Mutanga. 2011. 32 Mutanga Shingirirai 2011. Hydropower generation in a climate constrained world: Lessons for South Africa’s alternative energy supply. Policy Brief 70; AISA Pretoria. 33 The New Times Jun 30, 2011. All Africa Global Media via COMTEX. Accessed online: http://www.newtimes.co.rw/ Kigali. Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

34 The New Times. June 30, 2011 35 The New Times. June 30, 2011 36 Africa News. 2011. Mporokoso Mini Hydro Power Project to Gobble Up K10b. Africa News Service, March 3, 2011 Issue. 37 The Times of Zambia. March 03, 2011. All Africa Global Media via COMTEX.

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Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Accessed online 15 March 2011. www.sirtewaterandenergy.org/ docs/2009/Sirte_2008_BAK_3.pdf

38 The Times of Zambia. March 03, 2011. 39 Kaggwa, M., Mutanga, S. and Simelane, T. 2011. Factors Determining the Affordability of Renewable Energy. A Note for South Africa. AISA Policy Brief 65. Pretoria. 40 Energy Weekly News. 26 AUGUST 2011: Research and Markets; Global Hydro Power Report Ed1 2011 – Considerable Worldwide Growth of Over 1,100 GW by 2015 is Likely Online Accessed 30 October 2011. http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/ befe42/global_hydro_power) 41 Energy Weekly News. 26 August 2011. 42 Jonker Klunee, W. 2011.

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43 WAEA 2008: Hydropower resource assessment of Africa. Ministerial conference on water for Agriculture and Energy in Africa. The Challenges of Climate Change. Sirte, Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Accessed online 15 March 2011. www.sirtewaterandenergy.org/ docs/2009/Sirte_2008_BAK_3.pdf 44 Jonker Klunee, W. 2011. 45 Barta, B. 2011. A low carbon future with Hydropower. www.sinotechcc.co.za/courses/ workshop.php. Accessed 22 May 2011. 46 Barta, B. 2011. A low carbon future with hydropower. www.sinotechcc.co.za/courses/ workshop.php. Accessed 22 May 2011. 47 Ibid 48 Turton, A. and Hussein 2000. Water Wars: Enduring Myth or Impending Reality. Africa Dialogue Monograph. Series 2. ACCORD South Africa. 49 Holmer-Dixon, T.F. 1994(a). Environmental Scarcities and violent conflict: Evidence from cases. International security. 19 (1) 5–40. 50 Ohlsson, L. and Lundgvist, J. 2000. The turning of a screw – social adaption to water scarcity, Part 3 in Falkenmark et al., (eds). New Dimensions in Water Scarcity – A study prepared by FAO, AGLW, Rome. 51 Holmer-Dixon, T.F. 1996. Environmental scarcity, mass violence and limits to ingenuity, In current history. 95 (0) 359–365. 52 Cabrera, D., Colosi, L. and Lobdell, C. 2008. ‘Systems thinking’, Evaluation and Program Planning, Volume 31, Issue 3, August 2008, Pages 299–310. 53 Amigun, B., Musango, J. and Stafford, W. 2011. Biofuels and Sustainability in Africa. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 15, 1360–1372. 54 Cabrera, D., Colosi, L. and Lobdell, C. 2008. 55 Amigun, B., Simelane, T., Kaggwa, M., Stafford, W. and Mutanga, S. 2011. A Systems Dynamics Approach to understand the implications of bio-fuels as a new socio-technical system in Africa. Journal of Ecology and Society. In Press. 56 Vennix, J.A. 1996. Gropu Model Building: Facilitating Team learning using systems dynamix. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, England. 57 Mingers, J.and White, L. 2010. ‘A review of the recent contribution of systems think-

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ing to operational research and management science,’ European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 207, Issue 3, Pages 1147–1161. 58 Gerald Sehlke and Jake Jacobson. 2005. System Dynamics Modeling of Transboundary Systems: The Bear River Basin Model. Special Issue: Transboundary Ground Water Volume 43, Issue 5, pages 722–730. 59 Jimoh, O.D. 2012, Operation of Hydropower Systems in Nigeria, Optimisation of reservoir operation in Nigeria. www.unilorin.edu.ng.Accessed 20 August 2012. 60 Sterman, J.D. 2000. Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston, Massachusetts, USA. 61 Gerald Sehlke and Jake Jacobson. 2005. 62 Gerald Sehlke and Jake Jacobson. 2005. 63 Chih-Chao Ho, Chao-Cchung Yang, Liang-Cheng Chan and, Tze-wei Chen. 2012. The application of system dynamics modeling to study impact of water resources planning and management in Taiwan. PHD Dissertation. Taiwan.

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65 Mutanga, S.S. 2011. Hydropower generation in a climate constrained world: Lessons for South Africa’s alternative energy supply. AISA Policy Brief 65. 66 Practical Action. 2011. Practical Action’s position on small-scale hydropower. Accessed online Feb 2012. http://practicalaction.org/small-scale-hydro-power-2. 67 Practical Action. 2011. 68 Anyimadu. A, 2011. Damming at what cost. Africa Hydropower. The Worldtoday.org. 29–32. 69 Aduah. 2007. Multi-temporal remote sensing for mapping floods in the Kafue Flats of Zambia. MSc Thesis. ITC Netherlands. 70 Mumba, M., Thompson, J.R. 2005. Hydrological and ecological impacts of dams on the Kafue Flats floodplain system, southern Zambia. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 30, 442–447. 71 Sinyangwe, H. and Stephenson, D. 2005. Application of the RAFLS model for integrated water resource management for the Itezhi-Tezhi/Kafue river system, Water SA, 31 (4). 72 Balasubrahmanyam, S. and Abou-Zeid, S.M. 1982. Post-Itezhitezhi flow pattern of the Kafue in the Kafue Flats region, in Proceedings of the National Seminar on Environment and Change: The Consequences of Hydroelectric Power on the Utilization of the Kafue Flats, Lusaka, April 1978, edited by G. W. Howard and G. J. Williams, UNEP – WCMC, Lusaka. 73 Adua, M. 2007. 74 ZESCO. 2010. ZNFU submission to the energy regulation board on zesco’s proposed tariff adjustment for 2010/2011. http://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=zesco+challenges accessed online 22 August 2012.

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75 Sisala R.P. 2008. Challenges and Possible Solutions in the Power Sector” – A presentation to the economics association of Zambia .

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DEFINING PARAMETERS FOR SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER GENERATION IN THE LIGHT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

64 Beall, A,, Fiedler, F., Boll, J. and Cosens, B. 2011. Sustainable Water Resource Management and Participatory System Dynamics. Case Study: Developing the Palouse Basin Participatory Model. Open Access Journal of Sustainability, 3, 720–742.

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Conclusion Shingirirai Savious Mutanga, Nedson Pophiwa and Thokozani Simelane

T

his book not only illustrates the impact of climate change in Africa, but also how affected communities are adapting and mitigating the scourge. The discussion concurs with the notion that Sub-Saharan

Africa is not responsible for the cumulative impacts envisaged in the re-

gion. A demonstration of the impacts of climate change shows that climate change is a reality that needs to be tackled. What is critical is the way in which the changing global environment affects the local levels of African communities. One of the case studies illustrated that rain fed agriculture has been significantly affected by rainfall variability at a local level. On the other hand, despite the controversies around the shrinking of Lake Chad, the impact of climate change on the Lake Chad ecosystem is as important as the unsupervised anthropogenic activities carried out along the feeding rivers of the lake. Apart from the raised environmental concerns, human insecurity has been described as one of the major impacts of the challenges of climate change in the region. Pervasive poverty caused by a gradual deCopyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

grading trend in the environment and water quality has had a significant impact on the livelihoods and health conditions of the population in the riparian area. Similar to several case studies on the impact of climate change in Africa, the Lake Chad Basin case study illustrates that one of the African countries’ major challenges in addressing climate change is attributable to the inability of member states to provide workable solutions to climate change problems. As an example, efforts employed by member states to ameliorate the condition of the Lake Chad Basin Ecosystem (LCBE) came to naught due to a lack of preparedness by member states to champion the cause. Almost all LCBC member states are either experiencing war or recovering from it. It is therefore difficult for such countries to devote considerable resources to cater for the environment. The need to follow policy recom216

mendations and strategic action plans is critical. The book acknowledges

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

the necessary technical and financial aid, because the severity of inaction would not only affect the riparian population but also the entire ecological and climatic haven of the African continent, with disastrous human and

CONCLUSION

the need to consider the role of the international community in providing

physical repercussions. The continent’s localised models for “self-reliance” in adapting to climate change include, but are not limited to: indigenous knowledge systems, sound land use planning and the introduction of drought tolerant crops in the realm of food security. Central to success of climate change adaptation is the need to uphold innovation. Given the frequent droughts faced by most African countries, the introduction of drought tolerant crops is a common climate change adaptation. The Nigerian case study provided in this book illustrates the importance of a holistic approach in implementing climate change adaptation strategies. This entails: ensuring rigorous awareness campaigns, sensitising communities on climate change, providing adequate (financial and technological) support services, farming inputs complemented with monitoring and evaluation for successful climate change adaptation. The book acknowledges, however, that indigenous knowledge is a critical pillar to Africa’s climate change adaptation. The case study argues that though poorly documented and not well acknowledged by many agricultural and natural resources management experts, rural communities have intimate knowledge of their environment. In many rural communities, traditional knowledge is used to identify indicators of changes in weather and rainfall patterns and to then make local level decisions. Such local knowledge has hardly been documented in many parts of Ethiopia. Lastly, in the wake of climate change related disasters, most countries around the globe have become relentless in adopting innovative spatial planning approaches to boost resilience and the adaptation capacities of their city Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved.

authorities. The Ethiopian case study provided reveals that city authorities characterized by a much larger financial resource base, an active local constituent and a much higher political are more likely to adopt sound spatial planning measures to deal with climate change related risks. The book contends that embracing a green economy provides African countries with both challenges and opportunities for development. It is important that African countries situate the implementation of green economy policies within the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication, so as to drive sustained, inclusive and equitable processes of job creation and economic development. Therefore the goal of improving the social well-being of people is equally central to green economy initiatives, along with ecological and economic objectives. Again, a holistic approach that takes into account the inclusion of all relevant stakeholders (like business, industry, government, non-governmental organisations and civil society) is

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key. Pursuing a green economy and low carbon growth should look beyond just reducing carbon emissions to: increasing employment, ensuring food security, reducing poverty and vulnerability and ensuring sustainable use of resources. The South African Case Study on Green Cities appraises green city initiatives and goes further to demonstrate the importance of intensifying a green economy aim for the continent’s urban landscape. One of the key strides that come with green city initiatives is the immense contribution towards the realisation of national job creation targets. The book accepts, however, that the process of putting in place pre-requisites for successful implementation of green economic initiatives will take time; in addition, resources to do so may not necessarily be available in the short-run. The book acknowledges that energy use is an integral part of any production process; hence the promotion of renewable energy use is key in embracing a green economy. It appraises the significance of renewable energy transition in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere to a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Suggesting biofuels and hydropower generation as key alternative renewable sources of energy, the book provides two case studies from Southern Africa. Essentially, biofuels have been hailed as a solution to the energy crisis and environmental crisis. Like many other countries in Africa, the Zimbabwean case study is a clear testimony of the heterogeneous challenges facing the bio-fuels industry, which includes a lack of capital investment, institutional capacity and political interference resulting in failure of the technological system. The development of bio-fuels has thus been sporadic, with no continuity and stability in government regulations. Looking at hydropower generation in Zambia, there are challenges inherent to the complexities of hydropower generation in a climate constrained world, compounded with huge competing priorities for water. Multi-level

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stakeholders in water abstraction, the environmental parameters, the influence of socio-economic factors, the political framework, technology and human capital are key decision support factors to be considered when implementing sustainable hydropower schemes. The chapters contained in this book are drawn from a multidisciplinary perspective. They described the utility of historical-event-analysis in order to create an understanding of climate change impacts on human security and the environment. They also used other methodological and thematic approaches, encompassing computational analyses in the form of statistical analyses, geographic information systems, technology innovation systems (TIS) and the systems dynamics approach, among other useful tools of data collection and analysis. Indigenous knowledge systems, which are critical in addressing challenges through local solutions, were also included 218

in the book. The employment of such diverse methodologies and thinking

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

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environmental change, is to be realised.

Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai

CONCLUSION

is necessary if the goal of addressing a complex challenge, such as global

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Copyright © 2013. Africa Institute of South Africa. All rights reserved. Africa in a Changing Global Environment : Perspectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Africa, edited by Shingirirai